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000
FXUS63 KIND 292102 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
402 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MAY
BRING A ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY|/...

ISSUED AT 356 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH THE MAIN STORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO
COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF A SFC TROUGH THAT
HAS PUSHED WELL INTO OHIO AS OF THIS WRITING. MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DEFORMATION FORCING ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN
ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY WORKING TOWARD THE EASTERN LAKES WILL REMAIN
ENE OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STILL COULD SEE
A STRAY SHOWER/FLURRY GIVEN LINGERING MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. TEMPS IN
THE LOWEST 2 KFT AND LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE -10C LAYER SUGGEST
HOLDING WITH MIXED PRECIP (FLURRIES OR LIGHT SHOWERS) THE WAY TO GO
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

A MORE IMPRESSIVE GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR (850 MB TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO BY 12Z FRI) IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BEHIND
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES. 925-850
MB FLOW VEERING TO NEAR 340 DEGREES IN TANDEM WITH LAKE MI-8H TEMP
DIFFERENTIALS PUSHING THE UPPER TEENS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE MI TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POTENTIALLY REACHING
NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ZONES DURING THIS TIME WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION/IMPACT ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...DRY/CLOUDY WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 356 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

HEIGHT RISES/SUBSIDENCE ALLOWING GRADUAL BUILD IN OF LOW LEVEL
RIDGING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO THIN/BREAK UP STRATOCUMULUS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY BUT
RECOVER BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS ON SATURDAY AS WEAK WAA/SW
FLOW COMMENCES IN THE LOW LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 356 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

ATTENTION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TURNS TO A
NORTHEAST PAC/NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MODELED TO AMPLIFY SOUTHEAST
(CLIPPER-ISH) TOWARD THE OH VALLEY...AND ITS AT LEAST PARTIAL LINK
UP WITH THE STJ (PARTIAL EJECTION FROM NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
LINGERING NEAR BAJA CA). 12Z ECMWF/GFS ITERATIONS CAME IN A LITTLE
MORE AMPLIFIED/PHASED WITH WIDESPREAD/HEADLINE WORTHY SNOWS
STREAKING ACROSS INDIANA DURING THIS TIME. WITH THAT SAID TRUST IN
THESE SOLUTIONS REMAINS LOW GIVEN POOR SAMPLING AND NORMAL MODEL
FLIP FLOPPING/RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES IN SPLIT FLOW REGIMES.

GOOD RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER JET SUPPORT AND SOME REDUCED STABILITY
MODELED IN MID LEVELS SUGGEST A RATHER HEALTHY/DEEP FRONTAL
CIRCULATION IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MODEST MOIST ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
NOTED (1000-850 MB MIXING RATIOS INCREASING TO 3-4 G/KG).
DEFORMATION WITH THE UPPER WAVE WOULD THEN BRING LINGERING SNOWS
THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. IF THESE LATEST
SOLUTIONS PAN OUT THERE COULD BE A BAND OF WARNING LEVEL SNOW
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/LOWER LAKES. SO...THIS BEARS
WATCHING. MAKE SURE TO CHECK FOR UPDATES AS THE FCST/AMOUNTS/TRACK
WILL NO DOUBT CHANGE. FOR NOW WILL BUMP UP POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS A
BIT (GENERALLY 3-6" TOTALS IN THE GRIDS). IF A MORE NORTHERLY
SOLUTION VERIFIES A WINTRY MIX WOULD LIKELY SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN
ZONES LIMITING SNOW ACCUMS/RATIOS. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS/CHANGES TO THE FCST NEXT WEEK AS A COLDER/POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
WX REGIME LIKELY PERSISTS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY INDICATING EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL ALSO
PERSIST AS STRONG GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. LIGHT RETURNS ON KIND RADAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH SMALL AREA
OF MVFR VSBYS ALSO NOTED...THESE ONLY EXTEND BACK TO KCMI SO WILL
COVER WITH 1HR TEMPO TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER SHALLOW
INVERSION AT 3KFT LENDING FURTHER SUPPORT TO PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS
THRU THIS CYCLE. WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING WINDS
IN OUT PERIOD OF KIND TAF.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
NEAR TERM...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM....STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JAL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 292102 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
402 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MAY
BRING A ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY|/...

ISSUED AT 356 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH THE MAIN STORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO
COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF A SFC TROUGH THAT
HAS PUSHED WELL INTO OHIO AS OF THIS WRITING. MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DEFORMATION FORCING ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN
ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY WORKING TOWARD THE EASTERN LAKES WILL REMAIN
ENE OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STILL COULD SEE
A STRAY SHOWER/FLURRY GIVEN LINGERING MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. TEMPS IN
THE LOWEST 2 KFT AND LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE -10C LAYER SUGGEST
HOLDING WITH MIXED PRECIP (FLURRIES OR LIGHT SHOWERS) THE WAY TO GO
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

A MORE IMPRESSIVE GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR (850 MB TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO BY 12Z FRI) IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BEHIND
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES. 925-850
MB FLOW VEERING TO NEAR 340 DEGREES IN TANDEM WITH LAKE MI-8H TEMP
DIFFERENTIALS PUSHING THE UPPER TEENS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE MI TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POTENTIALLY REACHING
NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ZONES DURING THIS TIME WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION/IMPACT ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...DRY/CLOUDY WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 356 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

HEIGHT RISES/SUBSIDENCE ALLOWING GRADUAL BUILD IN OF LOW LEVEL
RIDGING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO THIN/BREAK UP STRATOCUMULUS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY BUT
RECOVER BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS ON SATURDAY AS WEAK WAA/SW
FLOW COMMENCES IN THE LOW LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 356 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

ATTENTION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TURNS TO A
NORTHEAST PAC/NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MODELED TO AMPLIFY SOUTHEAST
(CLIPPER-ISH) TOWARD THE OH VALLEY...AND ITS AT LEAST PARTIAL LINK
UP WITH THE STJ (PARTIAL EJECTION FROM NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
LINGERING NEAR BAJA CA). 12Z ECMWF/GFS ITERATIONS CAME IN A LITTLE
MORE AMPLIFIED/PHASED WITH WIDESPREAD/HEADLINE WORTHY SNOWS
STREAKING ACROSS INDIANA DURING THIS TIME. WITH THAT SAID TRUST IN
THESE SOLUTIONS REMAINS LOW GIVEN POOR SAMPLING AND NORMAL MODEL
FLIP FLOPPING/RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES IN SPLIT FLOW REGIMES.

GOOD RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER JET SUPPORT AND SOME REDUCED STABILITY
MODELED IN MID LEVELS SUGGEST A RATHER HEALTHY/DEEP FRONTAL
CIRCULATION IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MODEST MOIST ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
NOTED (1000-850 MB MIXING RATIOS INCREASING TO 3-4 G/KG).
DEFORMATION WITH THE UPPER WAVE WOULD THEN BRING LINGERING SNOWS
THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. IF THESE LATEST
SOLUTIONS PAN OUT THERE COULD BE A BAND OF WARNING LEVEL SNOW
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/LOWER LAKES. SO...THIS BEARS
WATCHING. MAKE SURE TO CHECK FOR UPDATES AS THE FCST/AMOUNTS/TRACK
WILL NO DOUBT CHANGE. FOR NOW WILL BUMP UP POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS A
BIT (GENERALLY 3-6" TOTALS IN THE GRIDS). IF A MORE NORTHERLY
SOLUTION VERIFIES A WINTRY MIX WOULD LIKELY SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN
ZONES LIMITING SNOW ACCUMS/RATIOS. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS/CHANGES TO THE FCST NEXT WEEK AS A COLDER/POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
WX REGIME LIKELY PERSISTS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY INDICATING EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL ALSO
PERSIST AS STRONG GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. LIGHT RETURNS ON KIND RADAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH SMALL AREA
OF MVFR VSBYS ALSO NOTED...THESE ONLY EXTEND BACK TO KCMI SO WILL
COVER WITH 1HR TEMPO TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER SHALLOW
INVERSION AT 3KFT LENDING FURTHER SUPPORT TO PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS
THRU THIS CYCLE. WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING WINDS
IN OUT PERIOD OF KIND TAF.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
NEAR TERM...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM....STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JAL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 292100
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
400 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MAY
BRING A ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY|/...

ISSUED AT 356 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH THE MAIN STORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO
COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF A SFC TROUGH THAT
HAS PUSHED WELL INTO OHIO AS OF THIS WRITING. MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DEFORMATION FORCING ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN
ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY WORKING TOWARD THE EASTERN LAKES WILL REMAIN
ENE OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STILL COULD SEE
A STRAY SHOWER/FLURRY GIVEN LINGERING MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. TEMPS IN
THE LOWEST 2 KFT AND LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE -10C LAYER SUGGEST
HOLDING WITH MIXED PRECIP (FLURRIES OR LIGHT SHOWERS) THE WAY TO GO
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

A MORE IMPRESSIVE GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR (850 MB TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO BY 12Z FRI) IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BEHIND
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES. 925-850
MB FLOW VEERING TO NEAR 340 DEGREES IN TANDEM WITH LAKE MI-8H TEMP
DIFFERENTIALS PUSHING THE UPPER TEENS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE MI TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POTENTIALLY REACHING
NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ZONES DURING THIS TIME WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION/IMPACT ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...DRY/CLOUDY WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 356 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

HEIGHT RISES/SUBSIDENCE ALLOWING GRADUAL BUILD IN OF LOW LEVEL
RIDGING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO THIN/BREAK UP STRATOCUMULUS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY BUT
RECOVER BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS ON SATURDAY AS WEAK WAA/SW
FLOW COMMENCES IN THE LOW LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 356 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

ATTENTION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TURNS TO A
NORTHEAST PAC/NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MODELED TO AMPLIFY SOUTHEAST
(CLIPPER-ISH) TOWARD THE OH VALLEY...AND ITS AT LEAST PARTIAL LINK
UP WITH THE STJ (PARTIAL EJECTION FROM NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
LINGERING NEAR BAJA CA). 12Z ECMWF/GFS ITERATIONS CAME IN A LITTLE
MORE AMPLIFIED/PHASED WITH WIDESPREAD/HEADLINE WORTHY SNOWS
STREAKING ACROSS INDIANA DURING THIS TIME. WITH THAT SAID TRUST IN
THESE SOLUTIONS REMAINS LOW GIVEN POOR SAMPLING AND NORMAL MODEL
FLIP FLOPPING/RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES IN SPLIT FLOW REGIMES.

GOOD LEFT EXIT UPPER JET SUPPORT AND SOME REDUCED STABILITY MODELED
IN MID LEVELS SUGGEST A RATHER HEALTHY/DEEP FRONTAL CIRCULATION IN
ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH MODEST MOIST ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED (1000-850 MB
MIXING RATIOS INCREASING TO 3-4 G/KG). DEFORMATION WITH THE UPPER
WAVE WOULD THEN BRING LINGERING SNOWS THROUGH THE REGION LATER
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. IF THESE LATEST SOLUTIONS PAN OUT THERE COULD
BE A BAND OF WARNING LEVEL SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/LOWER
LAKES. SO...THIS BEARS WATCHING. MAKE SURE TO CHECK FOR UPDATES AS
THE FCST/AMOUNTS/TRACK WILL NO DOUBT CHANGE. FOR NOW WILL BUMP UP
POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT (GENERALLY 3-6" TOTALS IN THE GRIDS). IF
A MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION VERIFIES A WINTRY MIX WOULD LIKELY SNEAK
INTO SOUTHERN ZONES LIMITING SNOW ACCUMS/RATIOS. OTHERWISE...ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS/CHANGES TO THE FCST NEXT WEEK AS A COLDER/POTENTIALLY
ACTIVE WX REGIME LIKELY PERSISTS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY INDICATING EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL ALSO
PERSIST AS STRONG GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. LIGHT RETURNS ON KIND RADAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH SMALL AREA
OF MVFR VSBYS ALSO NOTED...THESE ONLY EXTEND BACK TO KCMI SO WILL
COVER WITH 1HR TEMPO TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER SHALLOW
INVERSION AT 3KFT LENDING FURTHER SUPPORT TO PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS
THRU THIS CYCLE. WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING WINDS
IN OUT PERIOD OF KIND TAF.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
NEAR TERM...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM....STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JAL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 292100
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
400 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MAY
BRING A ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY|/...

ISSUED AT 356 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH THE MAIN STORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO
COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF A SFC TROUGH THAT
HAS PUSHED WELL INTO OHIO AS OF THIS WRITING. MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DEFORMATION FORCING ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN
ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY WORKING TOWARD THE EASTERN LAKES WILL REMAIN
ENE OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STILL COULD SEE
A STRAY SHOWER/FLURRY GIVEN LINGERING MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. TEMPS IN
THE LOWEST 2 KFT AND LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE -10C LAYER SUGGEST
HOLDING WITH MIXED PRECIP (FLURRIES OR LIGHT SHOWERS) THE WAY TO GO
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

A MORE IMPRESSIVE GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR (850 MB TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO BY 12Z FRI) IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BEHIND
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES. 925-850
MB FLOW VEERING TO NEAR 340 DEGREES IN TANDEM WITH LAKE MI-8H TEMP
DIFFERENTIALS PUSHING THE UPPER TEENS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE MI TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POTENTIALLY REACHING
NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ZONES DURING THIS TIME WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION/IMPACT ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...DRY/CLOUDY WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 356 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

HEIGHT RISES/SUBSIDENCE ALLOWING GRADUAL BUILD IN OF LOW LEVEL
RIDGING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO THIN/BREAK UP STRATOCUMULUS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY BUT
RECOVER BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS ON SATURDAY AS WEAK WAA/SW
FLOW COMMENCES IN THE LOW LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 356 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

ATTENTION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TURNS TO A
NORTHEAST PAC/NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MODELED TO AMPLIFY SOUTHEAST
(CLIPPER-ISH) TOWARD THE OH VALLEY...AND ITS AT LEAST PARTIAL LINK
UP WITH THE STJ (PARTIAL EJECTION FROM NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
LINGERING NEAR BAJA CA). 12Z ECMWF/GFS ITERATIONS CAME IN A LITTLE
MORE AMPLIFIED/PHASED WITH WIDESPREAD/HEADLINE WORTHY SNOWS
STREAKING ACROSS INDIANA DURING THIS TIME. WITH THAT SAID TRUST IN
THESE SOLUTIONS REMAINS LOW GIVEN POOR SAMPLING AND NORMAL MODEL
FLIP FLOPPING/RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES IN SPLIT FLOW REGIMES.

GOOD LEFT EXIT UPPER JET SUPPORT AND SOME REDUCED STABILITY MODELED
IN MID LEVELS SUGGEST A RATHER HEALTHY/DEEP FRONTAL CIRCULATION IN
ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH MODEST MOIST ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED (1000-850 MB
MIXING RATIOS INCREASING TO 3-4 G/KG). DEFORMATION WITH THE UPPER
WAVE WOULD THEN BRING LINGERING SNOWS THROUGH THE REGION LATER
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. IF THESE LATEST SOLUTIONS PAN OUT THERE COULD
BE A BAND OF WARNING LEVEL SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/LOWER
LAKES. SO...THIS BEARS WATCHING. MAKE SURE TO CHECK FOR UPDATES AS
THE FCST/AMOUNTS/TRACK WILL NO DOUBT CHANGE. FOR NOW WILL BUMP UP
POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT (GENERALLY 3-6" TOTALS IN THE GRIDS). IF
A MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION VERIFIES A WINTRY MIX WOULD LIKELY SNEAK
INTO SOUTHERN ZONES LIMITING SNOW ACCUMS/RATIOS. OTHERWISE...ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS/CHANGES TO THE FCST NEXT WEEK AS A COLDER/POTENTIALLY
ACTIVE WX REGIME LIKELY PERSISTS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY INDICATING EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL ALSO
PERSIST AS STRONG GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. LIGHT RETURNS ON KIND RADAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH SMALL AREA
OF MVFR VSBYS ALSO NOTED...THESE ONLY EXTEND BACK TO KCMI SO WILL
COVER WITH 1HR TEMPO TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER SHALLOW
INVERSION AT 3KFT LENDING FURTHER SUPPORT TO PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS
THRU THIS CYCLE. WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING WINDS
IN OUT PERIOD OF KIND TAF.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
NEAR TERM...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM....STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JAL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 291733
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF LIFT WELL AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONT THAT WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS.

THE SPEED OF THIS BAND OF RAINFALL WILL PUT IT OUT OF THE AREA BY
12Z...AND HI RES SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE LITTLE BEHIND IT. WILL GO
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS LINE BEFORE 12Z...AND MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AT 12Z.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MID MORNING WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
HOWEVER NEITHER FORCING NOR MOISTURE LOOK IMPRESSIVE. WILL JUST GO
CHANCE POPS THAT WILL PEAK AROUND 17Z. AS THE FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WILL DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLOWER. THUS ONLY ADDED A MIX OF SNOW
WITH THE RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...WENT CLOSER
TO THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS AT MANY LOCATIONS.  WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY TODAY AS SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FOCUS IS ON SKY COVER EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE
IN THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MOST PART THAT A
BLEND WAS USED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MODELS IS QUITE LOW FOR THE
SYSTEM MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT SO KEPT LOW POPS THERE. ELSEWHERE WENT DRY. BELIEVE
MODELS ARE CLEARING SKIES OUT TOO FAST...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT
SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

WITH THE HIGHER SKY COVER WENT CLOSE TO THE WARMER MET MOS NUMBERS
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY...BUT THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THANKS IN PART TO CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. AT THE MOMENT DO NOT BELIEVE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL MAKE IT TO CENTRAL INDIANA. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

FORCING WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS KEEP CHANGING THEIR SOLUTIONS ON PHASING AND
THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HAVE SEEN MANY TIMES
THIS WINTER THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. THUS CONFIDENCE
IS QUITE LOW...SO ONLY WENT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TEST FORECASTER PATIENCE AS RUN TO RUN
VARIANCE SWINGS WILDLY WITH THE POTENTIAL LATE WEEKEND WINTER STORM.
AFTER 28/12Z GUIDANCE TRENDED AWAY FROM A MORE PHASED SYSTEM...00Z
GUIDANCE HAS BROUGHT GREATER IMPACTS BACK INTO THE REGION. GEM AND
OP GFS BOTH BRING A MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS
RUN BUT REMAINS MORE SUPPRESSED THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO HOLDING THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY BACK LONGER
RESULTING IN A MORE DELAYED PHASING OF THE UPPER JETS UNTIL AFTER
THE SYSTEM PASSES BY CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE MAIN PLAYER IS THE PHASING OF THE POLAR JET DIVING DOWN THE
EAST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTERACTING WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
JET TRANSPORTING PACIFIC MOISTURE AS IT TRACKS OUT OF NORTHERN
MEXICO. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH DEGREE AND LOCATION OF
THE PHASING JET ENERGY ALOFT AND UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED...SUSPECT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE WAVE BACK AND FORTH FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER
DAY OR TWO UNTIL SOME OF THE UPPER JET ENERGY IS MORE COMPLETELY
SAMPLED. THE VARIANCE IN SURFACE WAVE TRACKS THAT THE INDIVIDUAL
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT FURTHER SUPPORTS THAT
THINKING. IT IS FOR THESE REASONS THAT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

WITH THAT BEING SAID...SOME TRENDS DEFINITELY STARTING TO SHOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST 36-48 HOURS. SETUP IS COLDER ACROSS
THE BOARD WITH GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP TYPE MAY BE A NON-
ISSUE IF THE SURFACE WAVE TRACK ENDS UP NEAR THE CURRENT CONSENSUS
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. MODELS SENDING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC/GULF MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...SETTING
UP A BROAD AND POTENTIALLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING
PRODUCING MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL ANALYSIS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED
SNOWFALL RATIOS AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 TO
1 BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR RAPIDLY SPILLS INTO THE REGION. IT
REMAINS PREMATURE TO DELVE INTO ACCUMULATION SPECIFICS BUT AS HAS
BEEN STATED THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THE SETUP RIGHT NOW CERTAINLY
SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. STAY TUNED AS MORE MODEL VARIANCE LIKELY
FORTHCOMING.

REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH
COLD TEMPS. A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND MAY BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EVEN COLDER WEATHER BY LATE NEXT WEEK
AS 500MB HEIGHTS POISED TO TUMBLE WITH A SHARP UPPER LOW DIVING
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY INDICATING EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL ALSO
PERSIST AS STRONG GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. LIGHT RETURNS ON KIND RADAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH SMALL AREA
OF MVFR VSBYS ALSO NOTED...THESE ONLY EXTEND BACK TO KCMI SO WILL
COVER WITH 1HR TEMPO TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER SHALLOW
INVERSION AT 3KFT LENDING FURTHER SUPPORT TO PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS
THRU THIS CYCLE. WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING WINDS
IN OUT PERIOD OF KIND TAF.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...JAL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 291733
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF LIFT WELL AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONT THAT WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS.

THE SPEED OF THIS BAND OF RAINFALL WILL PUT IT OUT OF THE AREA BY
12Z...AND HI RES SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE LITTLE BEHIND IT. WILL GO
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS LINE BEFORE 12Z...AND MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AT 12Z.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MID MORNING WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
HOWEVER NEITHER FORCING NOR MOISTURE LOOK IMPRESSIVE. WILL JUST GO
CHANCE POPS THAT WILL PEAK AROUND 17Z. AS THE FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WILL DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLOWER. THUS ONLY ADDED A MIX OF SNOW
WITH THE RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...WENT CLOSER
TO THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS AT MANY LOCATIONS.  WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY TODAY AS SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FOCUS IS ON SKY COVER EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE
IN THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MOST PART THAT A
BLEND WAS USED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MODELS IS QUITE LOW FOR THE
SYSTEM MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT SO KEPT LOW POPS THERE. ELSEWHERE WENT DRY. BELIEVE
MODELS ARE CLEARING SKIES OUT TOO FAST...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT
SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

WITH THE HIGHER SKY COVER WENT CLOSE TO THE WARMER MET MOS NUMBERS
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY...BUT THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THANKS IN PART TO CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. AT THE MOMENT DO NOT BELIEVE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL MAKE IT TO CENTRAL INDIANA. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

FORCING WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS KEEP CHANGING THEIR SOLUTIONS ON PHASING AND
THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HAVE SEEN MANY TIMES
THIS WINTER THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. THUS CONFIDENCE
IS QUITE LOW...SO ONLY WENT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TEST FORECASTER PATIENCE AS RUN TO RUN
VARIANCE SWINGS WILDLY WITH THE POTENTIAL LATE WEEKEND WINTER STORM.
AFTER 28/12Z GUIDANCE TRENDED AWAY FROM A MORE PHASED SYSTEM...00Z
GUIDANCE HAS BROUGHT GREATER IMPACTS BACK INTO THE REGION. GEM AND
OP GFS BOTH BRING A MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS
RUN BUT REMAINS MORE SUPPRESSED THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO HOLDING THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY BACK LONGER
RESULTING IN A MORE DELAYED PHASING OF THE UPPER JETS UNTIL AFTER
THE SYSTEM PASSES BY CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE MAIN PLAYER IS THE PHASING OF THE POLAR JET DIVING DOWN THE
EAST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTERACTING WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
JET TRANSPORTING PACIFIC MOISTURE AS IT TRACKS OUT OF NORTHERN
MEXICO. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH DEGREE AND LOCATION OF
THE PHASING JET ENERGY ALOFT AND UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED...SUSPECT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE WAVE BACK AND FORTH FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER
DAY OR TWO UNTIL SOME OF THE UPPER JET ENERGY IS MORE COMPLETELY
SAMPLED. THE VARIANCE IN SURFACE WAVE TRACKS THAT THE INDIVIDUAL
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT FURTHER SUPPORTS THAT
THINKING. IT IS FOR THESE REASONS THAT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

WITH THAT BEING SAID...SOME TRENDS DEFINITELY STARTING TO SHOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST 36-48 HOURS. SETUP IS COLDER ACROSS
THE BOARD WITH GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP TYPE MAY BE A NON-
ISSUE IF THE SURFACE WAVE TRACK ENDS UP NEAR THE CURRENT CONSENSUS
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. MODELS SENDING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC/GULF MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...SETTING
UP A BROAD AND POTENTIALLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING
PRODUCING MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL ANALYSIS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED
SNOWFALL RATIOS AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 TO
1 BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR RAPIDLY SPILLS INTO THE REGION. IT
REMAINS PREMATURE TO DELVE INTO ACCUMULATION SPECIFICS BUT AS HAS
BEEN STATED THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THE SETUP RIGHT NOW CERTAINLY
SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. STAY TUNED AS MORE MODEL VARIANCE LIKELY
FORTHCOMING.

REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH
COLD TEMPS. A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND MAY BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EVEN COLDER WEATHER BY LATE NEXT WEEK
AS 500MB HEIGHTS POISED TO TUMBLE WITH A SHARP UPPER LOW DIVING
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY INDICATING EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL ALSO
PERSIST AS STRONG GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. LIGHT RETURNS ON KIND RADAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH SMALL AREA
OF MVFR VSBYS ALSO NOTED...THESE ONLY EXTEND BACK TO KCMI SO WILL
COVER WITH 1HR TEMPO TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER SHALLOW
INVERSION AT 3KFT LENDING FURTHER SUPPORT TO PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS
THRU THIS CYCLE. WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING WINDS
IN OUT PERIOD OF KIND TAF.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...JAL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 291047
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
547 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF LIFT WELL AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONT THAT WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS.

THE SPEED OF THIS BAND OF RAINFALL WILL PUT IT OUT OF THE AREA BY
12Z...AND HI RES SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE LITTLE BEHIND IT. WILL GO
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS LINE BEFORE 12Z...AND MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AT 12Z.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MID MORNING WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
HOWEVER NEITHER FORCING NOR MOISTURE LOOK IMPRESSIVE. WILL JUST GO
CHANCE POPS THAT WILL PEAK AROUND 17Z. AS THE FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WILL DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLOWER. THUS ONLY ADDED A MIX OF SNOW
WITH THE RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...WENT CLOSER
TO THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS AT MANY LOCATIONS.  WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY TODAY AS SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FOCUS IS ON SKY COVER EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE
IN THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MOST PART THAT A
BLEND WAS USED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MODELS IS QUITE LOW FOR THE
SYSTEM MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT SO KEPT LOW POPS THERE. ELSEWHERE WENT DRY. BELIEVE
MODELS ARE CLEARING SKIES OUT TOO FAST...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT
SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

WITH THE HIGHER SKY COVER WENT CLOSE TO THE WARMER MET MOS NUMBERS
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY...BUT THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THANKS IN PART TO CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. AT THE MOMENT DO NOT BELIEVE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL MAKE IT TO CENTRAL INDIANA. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

FORCING WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS KEEP CHANGING THEIR SOLUTIONS ON PHASING AND
THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HAVE SEEN MANY TIMES
THIS WINTER THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. THUS CONFIDENCE
IS QUITE LOW...SO ONLY WENT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TEST FORECASTER PATIENCE AS RUN TO RUN
VARIANCE SWINGS WILDLY WITH THE POTENTIAL LATE WEEKEND WINTER STORM.
AFTER 28/12Z GUIDANCE TRENDED AWAY FROM A MORE PHASED SYSTEM...00Z
GUIDANCE HAS BROUGHT GREATER IMPACTS BACK INTO THE REGION. GGEM AND
OP GFS BOTH BRING A MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS
RUN BUT REMAINS MORE SUPPRESSED THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO HOLDING THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY BACK LONGER
RESULTING IN A MORE DELAYED PHASING OF THE UPPER JETS UNTIL AFTER
THE SYSTEM PASSES BY CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE MAIN PLAYER IS THE PHASING OF THE POLAR JET DIVING DOWN THE
EAST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTERACTING WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
JET TRANSPORTING PACIFIC MOISTURE AS IT TRACKS OUT OF NORTHERN
MEXICO. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH DEGREE AND LOCATION OF
THE PHASING JET ENERGY ALOFT AND UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED...SUSPECT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE WAVE BACK AND FORTH FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER
DAY OR TWO UNTIL SOME OF THE UPPER JET ENERGY IS MORE COMPLETELY
SAMPLED. THE VARIANCE IN SURFACE WAVE TRACKS THAT THE INDIVIDUAL
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT FURTHER SUPPORTS THAT
THINKING. IT IS FOR THESE REASONS THAT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

WITH THAT BEING SAID...SOME TRENDS DEFINITELY STARTING TO SHOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST 36-48 HOURS. SETUP IS COLDER ACROSS
THE BOARD WITH GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP TYPE MAY BE A NON-
ISSUE IF THE SURFACE WAVE TRACK ENDS UP NEAR THE CURRENT CONSENSUS
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. MODELS SENDING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC/GULF MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...SETTING
UP A BROAD AND POTENTIALLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING
PRODUCING MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL ANALYSIS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED
SNOWFALL RATIOS AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 TO
1 BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR RAPIDLY SPILLS INTO THE REGION. IT
REMAINS PREMATURE TO DELVE INTO ACCUMULATION SPECIFICS BUT AS HAS
BEEN STATED THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THE SETUP RIGHT NOW CERTAINLY
SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. STAY TUNED AS MORE MODEL VARIANCE LIKELY
FORTHCOMING.

REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH
COLD TEMPS. A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND MAY BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EVEN COLDER WEATHER BY LATE NEXT WEEK
AS 500MB HEIGHTS POISED TO TUMBLE WITH A SHARP UPPER LOW DIVING
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 547 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH
TONIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT 10Z WITH
A COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION WITH A NARROW DRY SLOT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES NOTED ON SATELLITE ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
ILLINOIS INTO MISSOURI. THIS CLEAR SLOT SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE COLD FRONT. S/SW
WINDS AT 10-15KTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WITH ONLY
SPORADIC SURFACE GUSTS UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES...DECIDED TO ADD A
FEW HOURS WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
14-15Z.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...MVFR STRATUS WILL ENCOMPASS ALL TERMINALS
BY MIDDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS COLD
ADVECTION EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST
WITH SUSTAINEDS AT 15-20KTS AND GUSTS AT 25-30KTS INTO THE
EVENING. GUSTS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LINGERING. COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT KIND LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. PRECIP SHOULD BE TOO LIGHT
TO PRODUCE ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 291047
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
547 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF LIFT WELL AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONT THAT WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS.

THE SPEED OF THIS BAND OF RAINFALL WILL PUT IT OUT OF THE AREA BY
12Z...AND HI RES SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE LITTLE BEHIND IT. WILL GO
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS LINE BEFORE 12Z...AND MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AT 12Z.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MID MORNING WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
HOWEVER NEITHER FORCING NOR MOISTURE LOOK IMPRESSIVE. WILL JUST GO
CHANCE POPS THAT WILL PEAK AROUND 17Z. AS THE FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WILL DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLOWER. THUS ONLY ADDED A MIX OF SNOW
WITH THE RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...WENT CLOSER
TO THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS AT MANY LOCATIONS.  WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY TODAY AS SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FOCUS IS ON SKY COVER EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE
IN THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MOST PART THAT A
BLEND WAS USED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MODELS IS QUITE LOW FOR THE
SYSTEM MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT SO KEPT LOW POPS THERE. ELSEWHERE WENT DRY. BELIEVE
MODELS ARE CLEARING SKIES OUT TOO FAST...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT
SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

WITH THE HIGHER SKY COVER WENT CLOSE TO THE WARMER MET MOS NUMBERS
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY...BUT THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THANKS IN PART TO CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. AT THE MOMENT DO NOT BELIEVE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL MAKE IT TO CENTRAL INDIANA. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

FORCING WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS KEEP CHANGING THEIR SOLUTIONS ON PHASING AND
THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HAVE SEEN MANY TIMES
THIS WINTER THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. THUS CONFIDENCE
IS QUITE LOW...SO ONLY WENT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TEST FORECASTER PATIENCE AS RUN TO RUN
VARIANCE SWINGS WILDLY WITH THE POTENTIAL LATE WEEKEND WINTER STORM.
AFTER 28/12Z GUIDANCE TRENDED AWAY FROM A MORE PHASED SYSTEM...00Z
GUIDANCE HAS BROUGHT GREATER IMPACTS BACK INTO THE REGION. GGEM AND
OP GFS BOTH BRING A MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS
RUN BUT REMAINS MORE SUPPRESSED THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO HOLDING THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY BACK LONGER
RESULTING IN A MORE DELAYED PHASING OF THE UPPER JETS UNTIL AFTER
THE SYSTEM PASSES BY CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE MAIN PLAYER IS THE PHASING OF THE POLAR JET DIVING DOWN THE
EAST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTERACTING WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
JET TRANSPORTING PACIFIC MOISTURE AS IT TRACKS OUT OF NORTHERN
MEXICO. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH DEGREE AND LOCATION OF
THE PHASING JET ENERGY ALOFT AND UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED...SUSPECT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE WAVE BACK AND FORTH FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER
DAY OR TWO UNTIL SOME OF THE UPPER JET ENERGY IS MORE COMPLETELY
SAMPLED. THE VARIANCE IN SURFACE WAVE TRACKS THAT THE INDIVIDUAL
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT FURTHER SUPPORTS THAT
THINKING. IT IS FOR THESE REASONS THAT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

WITH THAT BEING SAID...SOME TRENDS DEFINITELY STARTING TO SHOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST 36-48 HOURS. SETUP IS COLDER ACROSS
THE BOARD WITH GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP TYPE MAY BE A NON-
ISSUE IF THE SURFACE WAVE TRACK ENDS UP NEAR THE CURRENT CONSENSUS
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. MODELS SENDING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC/GULF MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...SETTING
UP A BROAD AND POTENTIALLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING
PRODUCING MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL ANALYSIS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED
SNOWFALL RATIOS AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 TO
1 BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR RAPIDLY SPILLS INTO THE REGION. IT
REMAINS PREMATURE TO DELVE INTO ACCUMULATION SPECIFICS BUT AS HAS
BEEN STATED THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THE SETUP RIGHT NOW CERTAINLY
SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. STAY TUNED AS MORE MODEL VARIANCE LIKELY
FORTHCOMING.

REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH
COLD TEMPS. A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND MAY BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EVEN COLDER WEATHER BY LATE NEXT WEEK
AS 500MB HEIGHTS POISED TO TUMBLE WITH A SHARP UPPER LOW DIVING
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 547 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH
TONIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT 10Z WITH
A COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION WITH A NARROW DRY SLOT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES NOTED ON SATELLITE ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
ILLINOIS INTO MISSOURI. THIS CLEAR SLOT SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE COLD FRONT. S/SW
WINDS AT 10-15KTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WITH ONLY
SPORADIC SURFACE GUSTS UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES...DECIDED TO ADD A
FEW HOURS WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
14-15Z.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...MVFR STRATUS WILL ENCOMPASS ALL TERMINALS
BY MIDDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS COLD
ADVECTION EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST
WITH SUSTAINEDS AT 15-20KTS AND GUSTS AT 25-30KTS INTO THE
EVENING. GUSTS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LINGERING. COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT KIND LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. PRECIP SHOULD BE TOO LIGHT
TO PRODUCE ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 290854
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
353 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF LIFT WELL AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONT THAT WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS.

THE SPEED OF THIS BAND OF RAINFALL WILL PUT IT OUT OF THE AREA BY
12Z...AND HI RES SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE LITTLE BEHIND IT. WILL GO
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS LINE BEFORE 12Z...AND MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AT 12Z.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MID MORNING WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
HOWEVER NEITHER FORCING NOR MOISTURE LOOK IMPRESSIVE. WILL JUST GO
CHANCE POPS THAT WILL PEAK AROUND 17Z. AS THE FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WILL DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLOWER. THUS ONLY ADDED A MIX OF SNOW
WITH THE RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...WENT CLOSER
TO THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS AT MANY LOCATIONS.  WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY TODAY AS SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FOCUS IS ON SKY COVER EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE
IN THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MOST PART THAT A
BLEND WAS USED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MODELS IS QUITE LOW FOR THE
SYSTEM MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT SO KEPT LOW POPS THERE. ELSEWHERE WENT DRY. BELIEVE
MODELS ARE CLEARING SKIES OUT TOO FAST...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT
SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

WITH THE HIGHER SKY COVER WENT CLOSE TO THE WARMER MET MOS NUMBERS
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY...BUT THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THANKS IN PART TO CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. AT THE MOMENT DO NOT BELIEVE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL MAKE IT TO CENTRAL INDIANA. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

FORCING WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS KEEP CHANGING THEIR SOLUTIONS ON PHASING AND
THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HAVE SEEN MANY TIMES
THIS WINTER THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. THUS CONFIDENCE
IS QUITE LOW...SO ONLY WENT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TEST FORECASTER PATIENCE AS RUN TO RUN
VARIANCE SWINGS WILDLY WITH THE POTENTIAL LATE WEEKEND WINTER STORM.
AFTER 28/12Z GUIDANCE TRENDED AWAY FROM A MORE PHASED SYSTEM...00Z
GUIDANCE HAS BROUGHT GREATER IMPACTS BACK INTO THE REGION. GGEM AND
OP GFS BOTH BRING A MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS
RUN BUT REMAINS MORE SUPPRESSED THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO HOLDING THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY BACK LONGER
RESULTING IN A MORE DELAYED PHASING OF THE UPPER JETS UNTIL AFTER
THE SYSTEM PASSES BY CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE MAIN PLAYER IS THE PHASING OF THE POLAR JET DIVING DOWN THE
EAST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTERACTING WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
JET TRANSPORTING PACIFIC MOISTURE AS IT TRACKS OUT OF NORTHERN
MEXICO. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH DEGREE AND LOCATION OF
THE PHASING JET ENERGY ALOFT AND UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED...SUSPECT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE WAVE BACK AND FORTH FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER
DAY OR TWO UNTIL SOME OF THE UPPER JET ENERGY IS MORE COMPLETELY
SAMPLED. THE VARIANCE IN SURFACE WAVE TRACKS THAT THE INDIVIDUAL
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT FURTHER SUPPORTS THAT
THINKING. IT IS FOR THESE REASONS THAT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

WITH THAT BEING SAID...SOME TRENDS DEFINITELY STARTING TO SHOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST 36-48 HOURS. SETUP IS COLDER ACROSS
THE BOARD WITH GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP TYPE MAY BE A NON-
ISSUE IF THE SURFACE WAVE TRACK ENDS UP NEAR THE CURRENT CONSENSUS
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. MODELS SENDING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC/GULF MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...SETTING
UP A BROAD AND POTENTIALLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING
PRODUCING MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL ANALYSIS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED
SNOWFALL RATIOS AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 TO
1 BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR RAPIDLY SPILLS INTO THE REGION. IT
REMAINS PREMATURE TO DELVE INTO ACCUMULATION SPECIFICS BUT AS HAS
BEEN STATED THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THE SETUP RIGHT NOW CERTAINLY
SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. STAY TUNED AS MORE MODEL VARIANCE LIKELY
FORTHCOMING.

REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH
COLD TEMPS. A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND MAY BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EVEN COLDER WEATHER BY LATE NEXT WEEK
AS 500MB HEIGHTS POISED TO TUMBLE WITH A SHARP UPPER LOW DIVING
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

THIN BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA AT 0830Z.
LOW LEVELS REMAINS DRY AND WITH EXCEPTION OF A SPRINKLE AT KIND OVER
THE NEXT 30-60 MINS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP TO FALL. EXPECT
SOME WIND GUSTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS LEADING UP TO
DAYBREAK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

06Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THIS EVENING/S UPPER AIR INDICATES LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...SO DOUBTFUL THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
CLOUD CLOVER UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...WHEN MVFR DECK 020-025
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH IOWA...REACHES THE LOCAL AREA. SPOTTY
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFTER ABOUT 290800Z UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
TOWARDS MIDDAY THURSDAY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR DIRECT IMPACTS TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET 50-55 KTS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER
290600Z. BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN MIXED UP ENOUGH SO
THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULDN/T REACH CRITERIA.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AT 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS...WITH DIRECTIONS GRADUALLY VEERING WITH TIME. MAY SEE A FEW
LOCAL SURFACE GUSTS 20-25 KTS OVERNIGHT AT TIMES WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
JET CAN PARTIALLY MIX DOWN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...JAS/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 290854
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
353 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF LIFT WELL AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONT THAT WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS.

THE SPEED OF THIS BAND OF RAINFALL WILL PUT IT OUT OF THE AREA BY
12Z...AND HI RES SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE LITTLE BEHIND IT. WILL GO
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS LINE BEFORE 12Z...AND MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AT 12Z.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MID MORNING WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
HOWEVER NEITHER FORCING NOR MOISTURE LOOK IMPRESSIVE. WILL JUST GO
CHANCE POPS THAT WILL PEAK AROUND 17Z. AS THE FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WILL DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLOWER. THUS ONLY ADDED A MIX OF SNOW
WITH THE RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...WENT CLOSER
TO THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS AT MANY LOCATIONS.  WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY TODAY AS SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FOCUS IS ON SKY COVER EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE
IN THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MOST PART THAT A
BLEND WAS USED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MODELS IS QUITE LOW FOR THE
SYSTEM MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT SO KEPT LOW POPS THERE. ELSEWHERE WENT DRY. BELIEVE
MODELS ARE CLEARING SKIES OUT TOO FAST...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT
SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

WITH THE HIGHER SKY COVER WENT CLOSE TO THE WARMER MET MOS NUMBERS
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY...BUT THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THANKS IN PART TO CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. AT THE MOMENT DO NOT BELIEVE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL MAKE IT TO CENTRAL INDIANA. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

FORCING WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS KEEP CHANGING THEIR SOLUTIONS ON PHASING AND
THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HAVE SEEN MANY TIMES
THIS WINTER THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. THUS CONFIDENCE
IS QUITE LOW...SO ONLY WENT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TEST FORECASTER PATIENCE AS RUN TO RUN
VARIANCE SWINGS WILDLY WITH THE POTENTIAL LATE WEEKEND WINTER STORM.
AFTER 28/12Z GUIDANCE TRENDED AWAY FROM A MORE PHASED SYSTEM...00Z
GUIDANCE HAS BROUGHT GREATER IMPACTS BACK INTO THE REGION. GGEM AND
OP GFS BOTH BRING A MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS
RUN BUT REMAINS MORE SUPPRESSED THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO HOLDING THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY BACK LONGER
RESULTING IN A MORE DELAYED PHASING OF THE UPPER JETS UNTIL AFTER
THE SYSTEM PASSES BY CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE MAIN PLAYER IS THE PHASING OF THE POLAR JET DIVING DOWN THE
EAST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTERACTING WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
JET TRANSPORTING PACIFIC MOISTURE AS IT TRACKS OUT OF NORTHERN
MEXICO. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH DEGREE AND LOCATION OF
THE PHASING JET ENERGY ALOFT AND UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED...SUSPECT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE WAVE BACK AND FORTH FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER
DAY OR TWO UNTIL SOME OF THE UPPER JET ENERGY IS MORE COMPLETELY
SAMPLED. THE VARIANCE IN SURFACE WAVE TRACKS THAT THE INDIVIDUAL
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT FURTHER SUPPORTS THAT
THINKING. IT IS FOR THESE REASONS THAT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

WITH THAT BEING SAID...SOME TRENDS DEFINITELY STARTING TO SHOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST 36-48 HOURS. SETUP IS COLDER ACROSS
THE BOARD WITH GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP TYPE MAY BE A NON-
ISSUE IF THE SURFACE WAVE TRACK ENDS UP NEAR THE CURRENT CONSENSUS
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. MODELS SENDING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC/GULF MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...SETTING
UP A BROAD AND POTENTIALLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING
PRODUCING MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL ANALYSIS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED
SNOWFALL RATIOS AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 TO
1 BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR RAPIDLY SPILLS INTO THE REGION. IT
REMAINS PREMATURE TO DELVE INTO ACCUMULATION SPECIFICS BUT AS HAS
BEEN STATED THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THE SETUP RIGHT NOW CERTAINLY
SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. STAY TUNED AS MORE MODEL VARIANCE LIKELY
FORTHCOMING.

REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH
COLD TEMPS. A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND MAY BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EVEN COLDER WEATHER BY LATE NEXT WEEK
AS 500MB HEIGHTS POISED TO TUMBLE WITH A SHARP UPPER LOW DIVING
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

THIN BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA AT 0830Z.
LOW LEVELS REMAINS DRY AND WITH EXCEPTION OF A SPRINKLE AT KIND OVER
THE NEXT 30-60 MINS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP TO FALL. EXPECT
SOME WIND GUSTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS LEADING UP TO
DAYBREAK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

06Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THIS EVENING/S UPPER AIR INDICATES LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...SO DOUBTFUL THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
CLOUD CLOVER UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...WHEN MVFR DECK 020-025
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH IOWA...REACHES THE LOCAL AREA. SPOTTY
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFTER ABOUT 290800Z UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
TOWARDS MIDDAY THURSDAY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR DIRECT IMPACTS TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET 50-55 KTS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER
290600Z. BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN MIXED UP ENOUGH SO
THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULDN/T REACH CRITERIA.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AT 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS...WITH DIRECTIONS GRADUALLY VEERING WITH TIME. MAY SEE A FEW
LOCAL SURFACE GUSTS 20-25 KTS OVERNIGHT AT TIMES WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
JET CAN PARTIALLY MIX DOWN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...JAS/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 290836
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
336 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF LIFT WELL AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONT THAT WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS.

THE SPEED OF THIS BAND OF RAINFALL WILL PUT IT OUT OF THE AREA BY
12Z...AND HI RES SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE LITTLE BEHIND IT. WILL GO
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS LINE BEFORE 12Z...AND MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AT 12Z.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MID MORNING WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
HOWEVER NEITHER FORCING NOR MOISTURE LOOK IMPRESSIVE. WILL JUST GO
CHANCE POPS THAT WILL PEAK AROUND 17Z. AS THE FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WILL DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLOWER. THUS ONLY ADDED A MIX OF SNOW
WITH THE RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...WENT CLOSER
TO THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS AT MANY LOCATIONS.  WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY TODAY AS SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FOCUS IS ON SKY COVER EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE
IN THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MOST PART THAT A
BLEND WAS USED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MODELS IS QUITE LOW FOR THE
SYSTEM MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT SO KEPT LOW POPS THERE. ELSEWHERE WENT DRY. BELIEVE
MODELS ARE CLEARING SKIES OUT TOO FAST...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT
SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

WITH THE HIGHER SKY COVER WENT CLOSE TO THE WARMER MET MOS NUMBERS
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY...BUT THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THANKS IN PART TO CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. AT THE MOMENT DO NOT BELIEVE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL MAKE IT TO CENTRAL INDIANA. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

FORCING WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS KEEP CHANGING THEIR SOLUTIONS ON PHASING AND
THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HAVE SEEN MANY TIMES
THIS WINTER THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. THUS CONFIDENCE
IS QUITE LOW...SO ONLY WENT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TEST FORECASTER PATIENCE AS RUN TO RUN
VARIANCE SWINGS WILDLY WITH THE POTENTIAL LATE WEEKEND WINTER STORM.
AFTER 28/12Z GUIDANCE LARGELY SHIFTED IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM SOUTH
WITH A MORE SUPPRESSED SURFACE WAVE...00Z GUIDANCE HAS BROUGHT
IMPACTS BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION. GGEM AND OP GFS BOTH BRING A
MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS
THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN BUT REMAINS MORE
SUPPRESSED THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO HOLDING THE
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY BACK LONGER RESULTING IN A MORE DELAYED
PHASING OF THE UPPER JETS UNTIL AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES BY CENTRAL
INDIANA.

THE MAIN PLAYER IS THE PHASING OF THE POLAR JET DIVING DOWN THE
EAST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTERACTING WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
JET TRANSPORTING PACIFIC MOISTURE AS IT TRACKS OUT OF NORTHERN
MEXICO. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH DEGREE AND LOCATION OF
THE PHASING JET ENERGY ALOFT AND UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED...SUSPECT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE WAVE BACK AND FORTH FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER
DAY OR TWO UNTIL SOME OF THE UPPER JET ENERGY IS MORE COMPLETELY
SAMPLED. THE VARIANCE IN SURFACE WAVE TRACKS THAT THE INDIVIDUAL
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT FURTHER SUPPORTS THAT
THINKING. IT IS FOR THESE REASONS THAT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

WITH THAT BEING SAID...SOME TRENDS DEFINITELY STARTING TO SHOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST 36-48 HOURS. SETUP IS COLDER ACROSS
THE BOARD WITH GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP TYPE MAY BE A NON-
ISSUE IF THE SURFACE WAVE TRACK ENDS UP NEAR THE CURRENT CONSENSUS
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. MODELS SENDING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC/GULF MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...SETTING
UP A BROAD AND POTENTIALLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING
PRODUCING MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL ANALYSIS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED
SNOWFALL RATIOS AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 TO
1 BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR RAPIDLY SPILLS INTO THE REGION. IT
REMAINS PREMATURE TO DELVE INTO ACCUMULATION SPECIFICS BUT AS HAS
BEEN STATED THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THE SETUP RIGHT NOW CERTAINLY
SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. STAY TUNED AS MORE MODEL VARIANCE LIKELY
FORTHCOMING.

REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH
COLD TEMPS. A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND MAY BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EVEN COLDER WEATHER BY LATE NEXT WEEK
AS 500MB HEIGHTS POISED TO TUMBLE WITH A SHARP UPPER LOW DIVING
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

THIN BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA AT 0830Z.
LOW LEVELS REMAINS DRY AND WITH EXCEPTION OF A SPRINKLE AT KIND OVER
THE NEXT 30-60 MINS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP TO FALL. EXPECT
SOME WIND GUSTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS LEADING UP TO
DAYBREAK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

06Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THIS EVENING/S UPPER AIR INDICATES LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...SO DOUBTFUL THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
CLOUD CLOVER UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...WHEN MVFR DECK 020-025
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH IOWA...REACHES THE LOCAL AREA. SPOTTY
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFTER ABOUT 290800Z UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
TOWARDS MIDDAY THURSDAY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR DIRECT IMPACTS TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET 50-55 KTS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER
290600Z. BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN MIXED UP ENOUGH SO
THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULDN/T REACH CRITERIA.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AT 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS...WITH DIRECTIONS GRADUALLY VEERING WITH TIME. MAY SEE A FEW
LOCAL SURFACE GUSTS 20-25 KTS OVERNIGHT AT TIMES WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
JET CAN PARTIALLY MIX DOWN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...JAS/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 290836
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
336 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF LIFT WELL AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONT THAT WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS.

THE SPEED OF THIS BAND OF RAINFALL WILL PUT IT OUT OF THE AREA BY
12Z...AND HI RES SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE LITTLE BEHIND IT. WILL GO
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS LINE BEFORE 12Z...AND MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AT 12Z.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MID MORNING WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
HOWEVER NEITHER FORCING NOR MOISTURE LOOK IMPRESSIVE. WILL JUST GO
CHANCE POPS THAT WILL PEAK AROUND 17Z. AS THE FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WILL DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLOWER. THUS ONLY ADDED A MIX OF SNOW
WITH THE RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...WENT CLOSER
TO THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS AT MANY LOCATIONS.  WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY TODAY AS SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FOCUS IS ON SKY COVER EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE
IN THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MOST PART THAT A
BLEND WAS USED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MODELS IS QUITE LOW FOR THE
SYSTEM MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT SO KEPT LOW POPS THERE. ELSEWHERE WENT DRY. BELIEVE
MODELS ARE CLEARING SKIES OUT TOO FAST...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT
SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

WITH THE HIGHER SKY COVER WENT CLOSE TO THE WARMER MET MOS NUMBERS
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY...BUT THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THANKS IN PART TO CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. AT THE MOMENT DO NOT BELIEVE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL MAKE IT TO CENTRAL INDIANA. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

FORCING WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS KEEP CHANGING THEIR SOLUTIONS ON PHASING AND
THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HAVE SEEN MANY TIMES
THIS WINTER THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. THUS CONFIDENCE
IS QUITE LOW...SO ONLY WENT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TEST FORECASTER PATIENCE AS RUN TO RUN
VARIANCE SWINGS WILDLY WITH THE POTENTIAL LATE WEEKEND WINTER STORM.
AFTER 28/12Z GUIDANCE LARGELY SHIFTED IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM SOUTH
WITH A MORE SUPPRESSED SURFACE WAVE...00Z GUIDANCE HAS BROUGHT
IMPACTS BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION. GGEM AND OP GFS BOTH BRING A
MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS
THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN BUT REMAINS MORE
SUPPRESSED THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO HOLDING THE
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY BACK LONGER RESULTING IN A MORE DELAYED
PHASING OF THE UPPER JETS UNTIL AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES BY CENTRAL
INDIANA.

THE MAIN PLAYER IS THE PHASING OF THE POLAR JET DIVING DOWN THE
EAST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTERACTING WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
JET TRANSPORTING PACIFIC MOISTURE AS IT TRACKS OUT OF NORTHERN
MEXICO. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH DEGREE AND LOCATION OF
THE PHASING JET ENERGY ALOFT AND UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED...SUSPECT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE WAVE BACK AND FORTH FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER
DAY OR TWO UNTIL SOME OF THE UPPER JET ENERGY IS MORE COMPLETELY
SAMPLED. THE VARIANCE IN SURFACE WAVE TRACKS THAT THE INDIVIDUAL
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT FURTHER SUPPORTS THAT
THINKING. IT IS FOR THESE REASONS THAT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

WITH THAT BEING SAID...SOME TRENDS DEFINITELY STARTING TO SHOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST 36-48 HOURS. SETUP IS COLDER ACROSS
THE BOARD WITH GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP TYPE MAY BE A NON-
ISSUE IF THE SURFACE WAVE TRACK ENDS UP NEAR THE CURRENT CONSENSUS
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. MODELS SENDING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC/GULF MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...SETTING
UP A BROAD AND POTENTIALLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING
PRODUCING MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL ANALYSIS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED
SNOWFALL RATIOS AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 TO
1 BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR RAPIDLY SPILLS INTO THE REGION. IT
REMAINS PREMATURE TO DELVE INTO ACCUMULATION SPECIFICS BUT AS HAS
BEEN STATED THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THE SETUP RIGHT NOW CERTAINLY
SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. STAY TUNED AS MORE MODEL VARIANCE LIKELY
FORTHCOMING.

REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH
COLD TEMPS. A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND MAY BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EVEN COLDER WEATHER BY LATE NEXT WEEK
AS 500MB HEIGHTS POISED TO TUMBLE WITH A SHARP UPPER LOW DIVING
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

THIN BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA AT 0830Z.
LOW LEVELS REMAINS DRY AND WITH EXCEPTION OF A SPRINKLE AT KIND OVER
THE NEXT 30-60 MINS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP TO FALL. EXPECT
SOME WIND GUSTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS LEADING UP TO
DAYBREAK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

06Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THIS EVENING/S UPPER AIR INDICATES LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...SO DOUBTFUL THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
CLOUD CLOVER UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...WHEN MVFR DECK 020-025
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH IOWA...REACHES THE LOCAL AREA. SPOTTY
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFTER ABOUT 290800Z UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
TOWARDS MIDDAY THURSDAY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR DIRECT IMPACTS TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET 50-55 KTS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER
290600Z. BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN MIXED UP ENOUGH SO
THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULDN/T REACH CRITERIA.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AT 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS...WITH DIRECTIONS GRADUALLY VEERING WITH TIME. MAY SEE A FEW
LOCAL SURFACE GUSTS 20-25 KTS OVERNIGHT AT TIMES WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
JET CAN PARTIALLY MIX DOWN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...JAS/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 290811
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM...AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF LIFT WELL AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONT THAT WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS.

THE SPEED OF THIS BAND OF RAINFALL WILL PUT IT OUT OF THE AREA BY
12Z...AND HI RES SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE LITTLE BEHIND IT. WILL GO
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS LINE BEFORE 12Z...AND MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AT 12Z.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MID MORNING WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
HOWEVER NEITHER FORCING NOR MOISTURE LOOK IMPRESSIVE. WILL JUST GO
CHANCE POPS THAT WILL PEAK AROUND 17Z. AS THE FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WILL DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLOWER. THUS ONLY ADDED A MIX OF SNOW
WITH THE RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...WENT CLOSER
TO THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS AT MANY LOCATIONS.  WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY TODAY AS SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FOCUS IS ON SKY COVER EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE
IN THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MOST PART THAT A
BLEND WAS USED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MODELS IS QUITE LOW FOR THE
SYSTEM MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT SO KEPT LOW POPS THERE. ELSEWHERE WENT DRY. BELIEVE
MODELS ARE CLEARING SKIES OUT TOO FAST...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT
SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

WITH THE HIGHER SKY COVER WENT CLOSE TO THE WARMER MET MOS NUMBERS
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY...BUT THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THANKS IN PART TO CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. AT THE MOMENT DO NOT BELIEVE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL MAKE IT TO CENTRAL INDIANA. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

FORCING WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS KEEP CHANGING THEIR SOLUTIONS ON PHASING AND
THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HAVE SEEN MANY TIMES
THIS WINTER THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. THUS CONFIDENCE
IS QUITE LOW...SO ONLY WENT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO TEST FORECASTER PATIENCE AS RUN TO RUN
VARIANCE SWINGS WILDLY WITH THE POTENTIAL LATE WEEKEND WINTER
STORM. AFTER 28/12Z GUIDANCE LARGELY SHIFTED IMPACTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM SOUTH WITH A MORE SUPPRESSED SURFACE WAVE...00Z GUIDANCE
HAS BROUGHT IMPACTS BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION. GGEM AND OP GFS
BOTH BRING A MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
THE ECMWF BRINGS THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN
BUT REMAINS MORE SUPPRESSED THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS IS LIKELY
DUE TO HOLDING THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY BACK LONGER RESULTING IN
A MORE DELAYED PHASING OF THE UPPER JETS UNTIL AFTER THE SYSTEM
PASSES BY CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE MAIN PLAYER IS THE PHASING OF THE POLAR JET DIVING DOWN THE
EAST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTERACTING WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
JET TRANSPORTING PACIFIC MOISTURE AS IT TRACKS OUT OF NORTHERN
MEXICO. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH DEGREE AND LOCATION OF
THE PHASING JET ENERGY ALOFT AND UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED...SUSPECT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE WAVE BACK AND FORTH FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER
DAY OR TWO UNTIL SOME OF THE UPPER JET ENERGY IS MORE COMPLETELY
SAMPLED. THE VARIANCE IN SURFACE WAVE TRACKS THAT THE INDIVIDUAL
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT FURTHER SUPPORTS THAT
THINKING. IT IS FOR THESE REASONS THAT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

WITH THAT BEING SAID...SOME TRENDS DEFINITELY STARTING TO SHOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST 36-48 HOURS. SETUP IS COLDER ACROSS
THE BOARD WITH GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP TYPE MAY BE A NON-
ISSUE IF THE SURFACE WAVE TRACK ENDS UP NEAR THE CURRENT CONSENSUS
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. MODELS SENDING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC/GULF MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...SETTING
UP A BROAD AND POTENTIALLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING
PRODUCING MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL ANALYSIS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED
SNOWFALL RATIOS AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 TO
1 BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR RAPIDLY SPILLS INTO THE REGION. IT
REMAINS PREMATURE TO DELVE INTO ACCUMULATION SPECIFICS BUT AS HAS
BEEN STATED THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THE SETUP RIGHT NOW CERTAINLY
SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. STAY TUNED AS MORE MODEL VARIANCE LIKELY
FORTHCOMING.

REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH
COLD TEMPS. A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND MAY BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EVEN COLDER WEATHER BY LATE NEXT WEEK
AS 500MB HEIGHTS POISED TO TUMBLE WITH A SHARP UPPER LOW DIVING
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

THIS EVENING/S UPPER AIR INDICATES LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...SO DOUBTFUL THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
CLOUD CLOVER UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...WHEN MVFR DECK 020-025
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH IOWA...REACHES THE LOCAL AREA. SPOTTY
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFTER ABOUT 290800Z UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
TOWARDS MIDDAY THURSDAY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR DIRECT IMPACTS TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET 50-55 KTS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER
290600Z. BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN MIXED UP ENOUGH SO
THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULDN/T REACH CRITERIA.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AT 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS...WITH DIRECTIONS GRADUALLY VEERING WITH TIME. MAY SEE A FEW
LOCAL SURFACE GUSTS 20-25 KTS OVERNIGHT AT TIMES WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
JET CAN PARTIALLY MIX DOWN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 290811
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM...AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF LIFT WELL AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONT THAT WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS.

THE SPEED OF THIS BAND OF RAINFALL WILL PUT IT OUT OF THE AREA BY
12Z...AND HI RES SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE LITTLE BEHIND IT. WILL GO
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS LINE BEFORE 12Z...AND MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AT 12Z.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MID MORNING WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
HOWEVER NEITHER FORCING NOR MOISTURE LOOK IMPRESSIVE. WILL JUST GO
CHANCE POPS THAT WILL PEAK AROUND 17Z. AS THE FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WILL DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLOWER. THUS ONLY ADDED A MIX OF SNOW
WITH THE RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...WENT CLOSER
TO THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS AT MANY LOCATIONS.  WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY TODAY AS SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FOCUS IS ON SKY COVER EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE
IN THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MOST PART THAT A
BLEND WAS USED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MODELS IS QUITE LOW FOR THE
SYSTEM MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT SO KEPT LOW POPS THERE. ELSEWHERE WENT DRY. BELIEVE
MODELS ARE CLEARING SKIES OUT TOO FAST...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT
SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

WITH THE HIGHER SKY COVER WENT CLOSE TO THE WARMER MET MOS NUMBERS
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY...BUT THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THANKS IN PART TO CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. AT THE MOMENT DO NOT BELIEVE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL MAKE IT TO CENTRAL INDIANA. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

FORCING WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS KEEP CHANGING THEIR SOLUTIONS ON PHASING AND
THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HAVE SEEN MANY TIMES
THIS WINTER THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. THUS CONFIDENCE
IS QUITE LOW...SO ONLY WENT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO TEST FORECASTER PATIENCE AS RUN TO RUN
VARIANCE SWINGS WILDLY WITH THE POTENTIAL LATE WEEKEND WINTER
STORM. AFTER 28/12Z GUIDANCE LARGELY SHIFTED IMPACTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM SOUTH WITH A MORE SUPPRESSED SURFACE WAVE...00Z GUIDANCE
HAS BROUGHT IMPACTS BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION. GGEM AND OP GFS
BOTH BRING A MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
THE ECMWF BRINGS THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN
BUT REMAINS MORE SUPPRESSED THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS IS LIKELY
DUE TO HOLDING THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY BACK LONGER RESULTING IN
A MORE DELAYED PHASING OF THE UPPER JETS UNTIL AFTER THE SYSTEM
PASSES BY CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE MAIN PLAYER IS THE PHASING OF THE POLAR JET DIVING DOWN THE
EAST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTERACTING WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
JET TRANSPORTING PACIFIC MOISTURE AS IT TRACKS OUT OF NORTHERN
MEXICO. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH DEGREE AND LOCATION OF
THE PHASING JET ENERGY ALOFT AND UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED...SUSPECT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE WAVE BACK AND FORTH FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER
DAY OR TWO UNTIL SOME OF THE UPPER JET ENERGY IS MORE COMPLETELY
SAMPLED. THE VARIANCE IN SURFACE WAVE TRACKS THAT THE INDIVIDUAL
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT FURTHER SUPPORTS THAT
THINKING. IT IS FOR THESE REASONS THAT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

WITH THAT BEING SAID...SOME TRENDS DEFINITELY STARTING TO SHOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST 36-48 HOURS. SETUP IS COLDER ACROSS
THE BOARD WITH GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP TYPE MAY BE A NON-
ISSUE IF THE SURFACE WAVE TRACK ENDS UP NEAR THE CURRENT CONSENSUS
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. MODELS SENDING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC/GULF MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...SETTING
UP A BROAD AND POTENTIALLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING
PRODUCING MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL ANALYSIS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED
SNOWFALL RATIOS AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 TO
1 BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR RAPIDLY SPILLS INTO THE REGION. IT
REMAINS PREMATURE TO DELVE INTO ACCUMULATION SPECIFICS BUT AS HAS
BEEN STATED THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THE SETUP RIGHT NOW CERTAINLY
SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. STAY TUNED AS MORE MODEL VARIANCE LIKELY
FORTHCOMING.

REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH
COLD TEMPS. A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND MAY BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EVEN COLDER WEATHER BY LATE NEXT WEEK
AS 500MB HEIGHTS POISED TO TUMBLE WITH A SHARP UPPER LOW DIVING
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

THIS EVENING/S UPPER AIR INDICATES LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...SO DOUBTFUL THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
CLOUD CLOVER UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...WHEN MVFR DECK 020-025
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH IOWA...REACHES THE LOCAL AREA. SPOTTY
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFTER ABOUT 290800Z UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
TOWARDS MIDDAY THURSDAY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR DIRECT IMPACTS TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET 50-55 KTS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER
290600Z. BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN MIXED UP ENOUGH SO
THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULDN/T REACH CRITERIA.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AT 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS...WITH DIRECTIONS GRADUALLY VEERING WITH TIME. MAY SEE A FEW
LOCAL SURFACE GUSTS 20-25 KTS OVERNIGHT AT TIMES WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
JET CAN PARTIALLY MIX DOWN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 290435
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1133 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL DEPART QUICKLY TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS PUSHES TOWARD INDIANA FOR
THURSDAY. AS THE LOW PUSHES ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY...CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW...ALLOWING A RETURN OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES AS WE FINISH THE WORK WEEK.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND NEARLY SEASONABLE COLD
TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS
INDIANA ON LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY CHANGE WAS BASICALLY TO
INCORPORATE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS INTO SKY GRIDS AND TWEAK MIN
TEMPS. LIKELY HAVE ALREADY SEEN LOWS IN MANY SPOTS WITH WARM
ADVECTION RAMPING UP ACROSS THE AREA...AND SHOULD SEE TEMPS SLOWLY
CLIMBING OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER OHIO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA...WITH DRY DEW
POINT TEMPS IN THE TEENS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY...AS VISIBLE
PICTURES SHOW ONLY SOME HIGH CIRRUS TRYING TO INVADE FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST...BUT FAILING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS. RIDGING ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE GFS AND NAM
BOTH DEPICT A MODERATE SHORT WAVE TO PUSH INTO INDIANA SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. 295K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY ARRIVING BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES APPEAR TO HOLDING IN THE 4-5 G/KG AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL SHOW SHOW DEEP MOISTURE
ARRIVAL...AND MAINLY SHOW LIFT AMID A DRY COLUMN. BEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARD 12Z...IN THE FORM OF MAINLY LOWER CLOUDS.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE TONIGHT.

GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE IS EXPECTED. IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDING
REVEAL LOWEST LEVELS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...THUS ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS WILL BE RAIN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT TO BE REACHED DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...PROBABLY IN THE FIRST 3-4 HOURS AFTER SUNSET. WILL
TREND LOWS TOWARD EXPECTED TEMPS NEAR 02-03Z...AND TREND WARMER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS ON
THURSDAY. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A MODERATE
SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA ION THURSDAY. BEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEAR 12Z AND LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BEST FORCING IS ARRIVING EARLIER AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. BY 18Z...THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LOST AS THE BULK OF THE SHORT
WAVE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVEL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
THE LOWEST PARTS OF THE COLUMN HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE GONE.

THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MORNING HOURS...TRENDING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST BY
AFTERNOON. A FLURRY OR SNOWFLAKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING EXPECTED...MINIMAL TO NO
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL TREND COOLER THAN
MAVMOS HIGHS. FURTHERMORE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL AND HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE REACHED IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS
WITH A NEARLY STEADY STATE TEMPERATURE.

NAM AND GFS SUGGEST QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SUGGEST
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AMID COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FURTHERMORE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW EARLY
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 20S. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS NEAR
MAVMOS AND FRIDAY HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING IN PLACE OVER
INDIANA SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME A LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH
LIGHT WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AMID
SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGIN ON SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
FORECAST SOUNDING HERE SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF MID CLOUD...TYPICAL
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD AN INCREASING
CLOUDINESS FORECAST WITH HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE LATE WEEKEND SNOW
POTENTIAL. RUN TO RUN...MODEL TO MODEL AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBER CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO BE LACKING. THAT BEING SAID...SNOW
ACCUMULATION STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON. IT APPEARS TO BE
MORE OF A MATTER OF MINOR SNOWFALL VERSUS SEVERAL INCH SNOWFALL.

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THE 12Z MORNING RUN WAS THE OPERATIONAL GFS
NOW BEING MUCH WEAKER WITH ITS SURFACE LOW DUE TO LESS PHASING OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM JET WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES. THIS IS RESULTING IN LESS 24 HOUR HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS.

LOOKING AT BUFKIT 12Z MODEL PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND
SOUNDINGS...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE MOSTLY SNOW FOR THIS LOOMING SYSTEM EXCEPT THAT THE SNOW COULD
POSSIBLY MIX IN WITH RAIN SOUTH OF BLOOMINGTON BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY.
LESS CONFIDENT IN START TIME...BUT SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK
OK FOR NOW PER THE REGIONAL BLEND...CONSIDERING MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE
SNOW TO THE AREA MIDWEEK. WILL MOSTLY ACCEPT REGIONAL BLEND AS MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES DO NOT LEND A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
DEPARTING FROM THOSE NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

THIS EVENING/S UPPER AIR INDICATES LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...SO DOUBTFUL THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
CLOUD CLOVER UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...WHEN MVFR DECK 020-025
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH IOWA...REACHES THE LOCAL AREA. SPOTTY
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFTER ABOUT 290800Z UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
TOWARDS MIDDAY THURSDAY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR DIRECT IMPACTS TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET 50-55 KTS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER
290600Z. BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN MIXED UP ENOUGH SO
THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULDN/T REACH CRITERIA.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AT 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS...WITH DIRECTIONS GRADUALLY VEERING WITH TIME. MAY SEE A FEW
LOCAL SURFACE GUSTS 20-25 KTS OVERNIGHT AT TIMES WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
JET CAN PARTIALLY MIX DOWN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/NIELD
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...KOCH
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 290435
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1133 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL DEPART QUICKLY TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS PUSHES TOWARD INDIANA FOR
THURSDAY. AS THE LOW PUSHES ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY...CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW...ALLOWING A RETURN OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES AS WE FINISH THE WORK WEEK.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND NEARLY SEASONABLE COLD
TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS
INDIANA ON LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY CHANGE WAS BASICALLY TO
INCORPORATE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS INTO SKY GRIDS AND TWEAK MIN
TEMPS. LIKELY HAVE ALREADY SEEN LOWS IN MANY SPOTS WITH WARM
ADVECTION RAMPING UP ACROSS THE AREA...AND SHOULD SEE TEMPS SLOWLY
CLIMBING OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER OHIO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA...WITH DRY DEW
POINT TEMPS IN THE TEENS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY...AS VISIBLE
PICTURES SHOW ONLY SOME HIGH CIRRUS TRYING TO INVADE FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST...BUT FAILING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS. RIDGING ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE GFS AND NAM
BOTH DEPICT A MODERATE SHORT WAVE TO PUSH INTO INDIANA SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. 295K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY ARRIVING BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES APPEAR TO HOLDING IN THE 4-5 G/KG AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL SHOW SHOW DEEP MOISTURE
ARRIVAL...AND MAINLY SHOW LIFT AMID A DRY COLUMN. BEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARD 12Z...IN THE FORM OF MAINLY LOWER CLOUDS.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE TONIGHT.

GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE IS EXPECTED. IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDING
REVEAL LOWEST LEVELS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...THUS ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS WILL BE RAIN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT TO BE REACHED DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...PROBABLY IN THE FIRST 3-4 HOURS AFTER SUNSET. WILL
TREND LOWS TOWARD EXPECTED TEMPS NEAR 02-03Z...AND TREND WARMER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS ON
THURSDAY. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A MODERATE
SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA ION THURSDAY. BEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEAR 12Z AND LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BEST FORCING IS ARRIVING EARLIER AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. BY 18Z...THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LOST AS THE BULK OF THE SHORT
WAVE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVEL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
THE LOWEST PARTS OF THE COLUMN HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE GONE.

THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MORNING HOURS...TRENDING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST BY
AFTERNOON. A FLURRY OR SNOWFLAKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING EXPECTED...MINIMAL TO NO
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL TREND COOLER THAN
MAVMOS HIGHS. FURTHERMORE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL AND HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE REACHED IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS
WITH A NEARLY STEADY STATE TEMPERATURE.

NAM AND GFS SUGGEST QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SUGGEST
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AMID COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FURTHERMORE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW EARLY
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 20S. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS NEAR
MAVMOS AND FRIDAY HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING IN PLACE OVER
INDIANA SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME A LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH
LIGHT WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AMID
SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGIN ON SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
FORECAST SOUNDING HERE SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF MID CLOUD...TYPICAL
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD AN INCREASING
CLOUDINESS FORECAST WITH HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE LATE WEEKEND SNOW
POTENTIAL. RUN TO RUN...MODEL TO MODEL AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBER CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO BE LACKING. THAT BEING SAID...SNOW
ACCUMULATION STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON. IT APPEARS TO BE
MORE OF A MATTER OF MINOR SNOWFALL VERSUS SEVERAL INCH SNOWFALL.

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THE 12Z MORNING RUN WAS THE OPERATIONAL GFS
NOW BEING MUCH WEAKER WITH ITS SURFACE LOW DUE TO LESS PHASING OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM JET WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES. THIS IS RESULTING IN LESS 24 HOUR HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS.

LOOKING AT BUFKIT 12Z MODEL PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND
SOUNDINGS...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE MOSTLY SNOW FOR THIS LOOMING SYSTEM EXCEPT THAT THE SNOW COULD
POSSIBLY MIX IN WITH RAIN SOUTH OF BLOOMINGTON BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY.
LESS CONFIDENT IN START TIME...BUT SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK
OK FOR NOW PER THE REGIONAL BLEND...CONSIDERING MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE
SNOW TO THE AREA MIDWEEK. WILL MOSTLY ACCEPT REGIONAL BLEND AS MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES DO NOT LEND A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
DEPARTING FROM THOSE NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

THIS EVENING/S UPPER AIR INDICATES LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...SO DOUBTFUL THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
CLOUD CLOVER UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...WHEN MVFR DECK 020-025
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH IOWA...REACHES THE LOCAL AREA. SPOTTY
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFTER ABOUT 290800Z UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
TOWARDS MIDDAY THURSDAY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR DIRECT IMPACTS TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET 50-55 KTS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER
290600Z. BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN MIXED UP ENOUGH SO
THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULDN/T REACH CRITERIA.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AT 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS...WITH DIRECTIONS GRADUALLY VEERING WITH TIME. MAY SEE A FEW
LOCAL SURFACE GUSTS 20-25 KTS OVERNIGHT AT TIMES WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
JET CAN PARTIALLY MIX DOWN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/NIELD
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...KOCH
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 290245
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
945 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL DEPART QUICKLY TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS PUSHES TOWARD INDIANA FOR
THURSDAY. AS THE LOW PUSHES ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY...CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW...ALLOWING A RETURN OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES AS WE FINISH THE WORK WEEK.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND NEARLY SEASONABLE COLD
TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS
INDIANA ON LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY CHANGE WAS BASICALLY TO
INCORPORATE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS INTO SKY GRIDS AND TWEAK MIN
TEMPS. LIKELY HAVE ALREADY SEEN LOWS IN MANY SPOTS WITH WARM
ADVECTION RAMPING UP ACROSS THE AREA...AND SHOULD SEE TEMPS SLOWLY
CLIMBING OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER OHIO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA...WITH DRY DEW
POINT TEMPS IN THE TEENS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY...AS VISIBLE
PICTURES SHOW ONLY SOME HIGH CIRRUS TRYING TO INVADE FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST...BUT FAILING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS. RIDGING ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE GFS AND NAM
BOTH DEPICT A MODERATE SHORT WAVE TO PUSH INTO INDIANA SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. 295K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY ARRIVING BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES APPEAR TO HOLDING IN THE 4-5 G/KG AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL SHOW SHOW DEEP MOISTURE
ARRIVAL...AND MAINLY SHOW LIFT AMID A DRY COLUMN. BEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARD 12Z...IN THE FORM OF MAINLY LOWER CLOUDS.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE TONIGHT.

GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE IS EXPECTED. IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDING
REVEAL LOWEST LEVELS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...THUS ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS WILL BE RAIN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT TO BE REACHED DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...PROBABLY IN THE FIRST 3-4 HOURS AFTER SUNSET. WILL
TREND LOWS TOWARD EXPECTED TEMPS NEAR 02-03Z...AND TREND WARMER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS ON
THURSDAY. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A MODERATE
SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA ION THURSDAY. BEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEAR 12Z AND LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BEST FORCING IS ARRIVING EARLIER AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. BY 18Z...THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LOST AS THE BULK OF THE SHORT
WAVE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVEL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
THE LOWEST PARTS OF THE COLUMN HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE GONE.

THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MORNING HOURS...TRENDING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST BY
AFTERNOON. A FLURRY OR SNOWFLAKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING EXPECTED...MINIMAL TO NO
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL TREND COOLER THAN
MAVMOS HIGHS. FURTHERMORE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL AND HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE REACHED IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS
WITH A NEARLY STEADY STATE TEMPERATURE.

NAM AND GFS SUGGEST QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SUGGEST
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AMID COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FURTHERMORE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW EARLY
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 20S. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS NEAR
MAVMOS AND FRIDAY HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING IN PLACE OVER
INDIANA SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME A LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH
LIGHT WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AMID
SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGIN ON SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
FORECAST SOUNDING HERE SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF MID CLOUD...TYPICAL
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD AN INCREASING
CLOUDINESS FORECAST WITH HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE LATE WEEKEND SNOW
POTENTIAL. RUN TO RUN...MODEL TO MODEL AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBER CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO BE LACKING. THAT BEING SAID...SNOW
ACCUMULATION STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON. IT APPEARS TO BE
MORE OF A MATTER OF MINOR SNOWFALL VERSUS SEVERAL INCH SNOWFALL.

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THE 12Z MORNING RUN WAS THE OPERATIONAL GFS
NOW BEING MUCH WEAKER WITH ITS SURFACE LOW DUE TO LESS PHASING OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM JET WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES. THIS IS RESULTING IN LESS 24 HOUR HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS.

LOOKING AT BUFKIT 12Z MODEL PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND
SOUNDINGS...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE MOSTLY SNOW FOR THIS LOOMING SYSTEM EXCEPT THAT THE SNOW COULD
POSSIBLY MIX IN WITH RAIN SOUTH OF BLOOMINGTON BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY.
LESS CONFIDENT IN START TIME...BUT SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK
OK FOR NOW PER THE REGIONAL BLEND...CONSIDERING MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE
SNOW TO THE AREA MIDWEEK. WILL MOSTLY ACCEPT REGIONAL BLEND AS MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES DO NOT LEND A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
DEPARTING FROM THOSE NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 920 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUSTAINED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
LOWERING OF THE CEILINGS WITH TIME...BUT IT APPEARS CEILINGS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 050 FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE
ON THURSDAY.

SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES AFTER
ABOUT 290900Z...BUT POTENTIAL FOR DIRECT IMPACTS TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 50 KTS MAY MOVE INTO THE
AREA AFTER 290600Z. POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXISTS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THINK BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY
MIXED...SO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSION DOUBTFUL.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 150-170 DEGREES AT 10-14 KTS FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LOCAL SURFACE GUSTS 20-25 KTS AFTER 290600Z
WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET CAN PARTIALLY MIX DOWN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/NIELD
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...KOCH
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 290245
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
945 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL DEPART QUICKLY TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS PUSHES TOWARD INDIANA FOR
THURSDAY. AS THE LOW PUSHES ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY...CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW...ALLOWING A RETURN OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES AS WE FINISH THE WORK WEEK.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND NEARLY SEASONABLE COLD
TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS
INDIANA ON LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY CHANGE WAS BASICALLY TO
INCORPORATE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS INTO SKY GRIDS AND TWEAK MIN
TEMPS. LIKELY HAVE ALREADY SEEN LOWS IN MANY SPOTS WITH WARM
ADVECTION RAMPING UP ACROSS THE AREA...AND SHOULD SEE TEMPS SLOWLY
CLIMBING OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER OHIO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA...WITH DRY DEW
POINT TEMPS IN THE TEENS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY...AS VISIBLE
PICTURES SHOW ONLY SOME HIGH CIRRUS TRYING TO INVADE FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST...BUT FAILING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS. RIDGING ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE GFS AND NAM
BOTH DEPICT A MODERATE SHORT WAVE TO PUSH INTO INDIANA SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. 295K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY ARRIVING BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES APPEAR TO HOLDING IN THE 4-5 G/KG AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL SHOW SHOW DEEP MOISTURE
ARRIVAL...AND MAINLY SHOW LIFT AMID A DRY COLUMN. BEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARD 12Z...IN THE FORM OF MAINLY LOWER CLOUDS.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE TONIGHT.

GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE IS EXPECTED. IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDING
REVEAL LOWEST LEVELS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...THUS ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS WILL BE RAIN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT TO BE REACHED DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...PROBABLY IN THE FIRST 3-4 HOURS AFTER SUNSET. WILL
TREND LOWS TOWARD EXPECTED TEMPS NEAR 02-03Z...AND TREND WARMER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS ON
THURSDAY. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A MODERATE
SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA ION THURSDAY. BEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEAR 12Z AND LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BEST FORCING IS ARRIVING EARLIER AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. BY 18Z...THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LOST AS THE BULK OF THE SHORT
WAVE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVEL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
THE LOWEST PARTS OF THE COLUMN HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE GONE.

THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MORNING HOURS...TRENDING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST BY
AFTERNOON. A FLURRY OR SNOWFLAKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING EXPECTED...MINIMAL TO NO
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL TREND COOLER THAN
MAVMOS HIGHS. FURTHERMORE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL AND HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE REACHED IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS
WITH A NEARLY STEADY STATE TEMPERATURE.

NAM AND GFS SUGGEST QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SUGGEST
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AMID COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FURTHERMORE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW EARLY
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 20S. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS NEAR
MAVMOS AND FRIDAY HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING IN PLACE OVER
INDIANA SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME A LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH
LIGHT WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AMID
SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGIN ON SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
FORECAST SOUNDING HERE SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF MID CLOUD...TYPICAL
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD AN INCREASING
CLOUDINESS FORECAST WITH HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE LATE WEEKEND SNOW
POTENTIAL. RUN TO RUN...MODEL TO MODEL AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBER CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO BE LACKING. THAT BEING SAID...SNOW
ACCUMULATION STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON. IT APPEARS TO BE
MORE OF A MATTER OF MINOR SNOWFALL VERSUS SEVERAL INCH SNOWFALL.

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THE 12Z MORNING RUN WAS THE OPERATIONAL GFS
NOW BEING MUCH WEAKER WITH ITS SURFACE LOW DUE TO LESS PHASING OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM JET WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES. THIS IS RESULTING IN LESS 24 HOUR HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS.

LOOKING AT BUFKIT 12Z MODEL PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND
SOUNDINGS...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE MOSTLY SNOW FOR THIS LOOMING SYSTEM EXCEPT THAT THE SNOW COULD
POSSIBLY MIX IN WITH RAIN SOUTH OF BLOOMINGTON BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY.
LESS CONFIDENT IN START TIME...BUT SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK
OK FOR NOW PER THE REGIONAL BLEND...CONSIDERING MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE
SNOW TO THE AREA MIDWEEK. WILL MOSTLY ACCEPT REGIONAL BLEND AS MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES DO NOT LEND A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
DEPARTING FROM THOSE NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 920 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUSTAINED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
LOWERING OF THE CEILINGS WITH TIME...BUT IT APPEARS CEILINGS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 050 FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE
ON THURSDAY.

SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES AFTER
ABOUT 290900Z...BUT POTENTIAL FOR DIRECT IMPACTS TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 50 KTS MAY MOVE INTO THE
AREA AFTER 290600Z. POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXISTS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THINK BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY
MIXED...SO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSION DOUBTFUL.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 150-170 DEGREES AT 10-14 KTS FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LOCAL SURFACE GUSTS 20-25 KTS AFTER 290600Z
WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET CAN PARTIALLY MIX DOWN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/NIELD
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...KOCH
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 290221
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
920 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL DEPART QUICKLY TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS PUSHES TOWARD INDIANA FOR
THURSDAY. AS THE LOW PUSHES ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY...CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW...ALLOWING A RETURN OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES AS WE FINISH THE WORK WEEK.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND NEARLY SEASONABLE COLD
TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS
INDIANA ON LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER OHIO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA...WITH DRY DEW
POINT TEMPS IN THE TEENS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY...AS VISIBLE
PICTURES SHOW ONLY SOME HIGH CIRRUS TRYING TO INVADE FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST...BUT FAILING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS. RIDGING ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE GFS AND NAM
BOTH DEPICT A MODERATE SHORT WAVE TO PUSH INTO INDIANA SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. 295K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY ARRIVING BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES APPEAR TO HOLDING IN THE 4-5 G/KG AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL SHOW SHOW DEEP MOISTURE
ARRIVAL...AND MAINLY SHOW LIFT AMID A DRY COLUMN. BEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARD 12Z...IN THE FORM OF MAINLY LOWER CLOUDS.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE TONIGHT.

GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE IS EXPECTED. IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDING
REVEAL LOWEST LEVELS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...THUS ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS WILL BE RAIN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT TO BE REACHED DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...PROBABLY IN THE FIRST 3-4 HOURS AFTER SUNSET. WILL
TREND LOWS TOWARD EXPECTED TEMPS NEAR 02-03Z...AND TREND WARMER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS ON
THURSDAY. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A MODERATE
SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA ION THURSDAY. BEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEAR 12Z AND LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BEST FORCING IS ARRIVING EARLIER AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. BY 18Z...THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LOST AS THE BULK OF THE SHORT
WAVE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVEL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
THE LOWEST PARTS OF THE COLUMN HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE GONE.

THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MORNING HOURS...TRENDING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST BY
AFTERNOON. A FLURRY OR SNOWFLAKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING EXPECTED...MINIMAL TO NO
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL TREND COOLER THAN
MAVMOS HIGHS. FURTHERMORE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL AND HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE REACHED IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS
WITH A NEARLY STEADY STATE TEMPERATURE.

NAM AND GFS SUGGEST QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SUGGEST
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AMID COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FURTHERMORE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW EARLY
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 20S. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS NEAR
MAVMOS AND FRIDAY HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING IN PLACE OVER
INDIANA SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME A LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH
LIGHT WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AMID
SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGIN ON SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
FORECAST SOUNDING HERE SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF MID CLOUD...TYPICAL
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD AN INCREASING
CLOUDINESS FORECAST WITH HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE LATE WEEKEND SNOW
POTENTIAL. RUN TO RUN...MODEL TO MODEL AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBER CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO BE LACKING. THAT BEING SAID...SNOW
ACCUMULATION STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON. IT APPEARS TO BE
MORE OF A MATTER OF MINOR SNOWFALL VERSUS SEVERAL INCH SNOWFALL.

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THE 12Z MORNING RUN WAS THE OPERATIONAL GFS
NOW BEING MUCH WEAKER WITH ITS SURFACE LOW DUE TO LESS PHASING OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM JET WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES. THIS IS RESULTING IN LESS 24 HOUR HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS.

LOOKING AT BUFKIT 12Z MODEL PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND
SOUNDINGS...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE MOSTLY SNOW FOR THIS LOOMING SYSTEM EXCEPT THAT THE SNOW COULD
POSSIBLY MIX IN WITH RAIN SOUTH OF BLOOMINGTON BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY.
LESS CONFIDENT IN START TIME...BUT SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK
OK FOR NOW PER THE REGIONAL BLEND...CONSIDERING MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE
SNOW TO THE AREA MIDWEEK. WILL MOSTLY ACCEPT REGIONAL BLEND AS MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES DO NOT LEND A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
DEPARTING FROM THOSE NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 920 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUSTAINED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
LOWERING OF THE CEILINGS WITH TIME...BUT IT APPEARS CEILINGS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 050 FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE
ON THURSDAY.

SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES AFTER
ABOUT 290900Z...BUT POTENTIAL FOR DIRECT IMPACTS TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 50 KTS MAY MOVE INTO THE
AREA AFTER 290600Z. POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXISTS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THINK BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY
MIXED...SO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSION DOUBTFUL.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 150-170 DEGREES AT 10-14 KTS FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LOCAL SURFACE GUSTS 20-25 KTS AFTER 290600Z
WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET CAN PARTIALLY MIX DOWN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...KOCH
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 290221
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
920 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL DEPART QUICKLY TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS PUSHES TOWARD INDIANA FOR
THURSDAY. AS THE LOW PUSHES ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY...CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW...ALLOWING A RETURN OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES AS WE FINISH THE WORK WEEK.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND NEARLY SEASONABLE COLD
TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS
INDIANA ON LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER OHIO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA...WITH DRY DEW
POINT TEMPS IN THE TEENS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY...AS VISIBLE
PICTURES SHOW ONLY SOME HIGH CIRRUS TRYING TO INVADE FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST...BUT FAILING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS. RIDGING ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE GFS AND NAM
BOTH DEPICT A MODERATE SHORT WAVE TO PUSH INTO INDIANA SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. 295K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY ARRIVING BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES APPEAR TO HOLDING IN THE 4-5 G/KG AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL SHOW SHOW DEEP MOISTURE
ARRIVAL...AND MAINLY SHOW LIFT AMID A DRY COLUMN. BEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARD 12Z...IN THE FORM OF MAINLY LOWER CLOUDS.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE TONIGHT.

GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE IS EXPECTED. IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDING
REVEAL LOWEST LEVELS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...THUS ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS WILL BE RAIN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT TO BE REACHED DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...PROBABLY IN THE FIRST 3-4 HOURS AFTER SUNSET. WILL
TREND LOWS TOWARD EXPECTED TEMPS NEAR 02-03Z...AND TREND WARMER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS ON
THURSDAY. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A MODERATE
SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA ION THURSDAY. BEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEAR 12Z AND LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BEST FORCING IS ARRIVING EARLIER AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. BY 18Z...THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LOST AS THE BULK OF THE SHORT
WAVE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVEL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
THE LOWEST PARTS OF THE COLUMN HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE GONE.

THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MORNING HOURS...TRENDING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST BY
AFTERNOON. A FLURRY OR SNOWFLAKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING EXPECTED...MINIMAL TO NO
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL TREND COOLER THAN
MAVMOS HIGHS. FURTHERMORE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL AND HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE REACHED IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS
WITH A NEARLY STEADY STATE TEMPERATURE.

NAM AND GFS SUGGEST QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SUGGEST
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AMID COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FURTHERMORE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW EARLY
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 20S. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS NEAR
MAVMOS AND FRIDAY HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING IN PLACE OVER
INDIANA SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME A LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH
LIGHT WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AMID
SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGIN ON SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
FORECAST SOUNDING HERE SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF MID CLOUD...TYPICAL
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD AN INCREASING
CLOUDINESS FORECAST WITH HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE LATE WEEKEND SNOW
POTENTIAL. RUN TO RUN...MODEL TO MODEL AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBER CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO BE LACKING. THAT BEING SAID...SNOW
ACCUMULATION STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON. IT APPEARS TO BE
MORE OF A MATTER OF MINOR SNOWFALL VERSUS SEVERAL INCH SNOWFALL.

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THE 12Z MORNING RUN WAS THE OPERATIONAL GFS
NOW BEING MUCH WEAKER WITH ITS SURFACE LOW DUE TO LESS PHASING OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM JET WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES. THIS IS RESULTING IN LESS 24 HOUR HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS.

LOOKING AT BUFKIT 12Z MODEL PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND
SOUNDINGS...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE MOSTLY SNOW FOR THIS LOOMING SYSTEM EXCEPT THAT THE SNOW COULD
POSSIBLY MIX IN WITH RAIN SOUTH OF BLOOMINGTON BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY.
LESS CONFIDENT IN START TIME...BUT SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK
OK FOR NOW PER THE REGIONAL BLEND...CONSIDERING MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE
SNOW TO THE AREA MIDWEEK. WILL MOSTLY ACCEPT REGIONAL BLEND AS MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES DO NOT LEND A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
DEPARTING FROM THOSE NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 920 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUSTAINED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
LOWERING OF THE CEILINGS WITH TIME...BUT IT APPEARS CEILINGS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 050 FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE
ON THURSDAY.

SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES AFTER
ABOUT 290900Z...BUT POTENTIAL FOR DIRECT IMPACTS TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 50 KTS MAY MOVE INTO THE
AREA AFTER 290600Z. POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXISTS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THINK BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY
MIXED...SO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSION DOUBTFUL.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 150-170 DEGREES AT 10-14 KTS FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LOCAL SURFACE GUSTS 20-25 KTS AFTER 290600Z
WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET CAN PARTIALLY MIX DOWN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...KOCH
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 282238
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
537 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL DEPART QUICKLY TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS PUSHES TOWARD INDIANA FOR
THURSDAY. AS THE LOW PUSHES ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY...CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW...ALLOWING A RETURN OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES AS WE FINISH THE WORK WEEK.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND NEARLY SEASONABLE COLD
TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS
INDIANA ON LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER OHIO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA...WITH DRY DEW
POINT TEMPS IN THE TEENS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY...AS VISIBLE
PICTURES SHOW ONLY SOME HIGH CIRRUS TRYING TO INVADE FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST...BUT FAILING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS. RIDGING ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE GFS AND NAM
BOTH DEPICT A MODERATE SHORT WAVE TO PUSH INTO INDIANA SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. 295K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY ARRIVING BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES APPEAR TO HOLDING IN THE 4-5 G/KG AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL SHOW SHOW DEEP MOISTURE
ARRIVAL...AND MAINLY SHOW LIFT AMID A DRY COLUMN. BEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARD 12Z...IN THE FORM OF MAINLY LOWER CLOUDS.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE TONIGHT.

GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE IS EXPECTED. IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDING
REVEAL LOWEST LEVELS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...THUS ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS WILL BE RAIN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT TO BE REACHED DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...PROBABLY IN THE FIRST 3-4 HOURS AFTER SUNSET. WILL
TREND LOWS TOWARD EXPECTED TEMPS NEAR 02-03Z...AND TREND WARMER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS ON
THURSDAY. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A MODERATE
SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA ION THURSDAY. BEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEAR 12Z AND LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BEST FORCING IS ARRIVING EARLIER AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. BY 18Z...THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LOST AS THE BULK OF THE SHORT
WAVE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVEL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
THE LOWEST PARTS OF THE COLUMN HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE GONE.

THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MORNING HOURS...TRENDING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST BY
AFTERNOON. A FLURRY OR SNOWFLAKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING EXPECTED...MINIMAL TO NO
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL TREND COOLER THAN
MAVMOS HIGHS. FURTHERMORE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL AND HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE REACHED IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS
WITH A NEARLY STEADY STATE TEMPERATURE.

NAM AND GFS SUGGEST QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SUGGEST
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AMID COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FURTHERMORE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW EARLY
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 20S. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS NEAR
MAVMOS AND FRIDAY HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING IN PLACE OVER
INDIANA SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME A LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH
LIGHT WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AMID
SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGIN ON SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
FORECAST SOUNDING HERE SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF MID CLOUD...TYPICAL
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD AN INCREASING
CLOUDINESS FORECAST WITH HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MEXMOS.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE LATE WEEKEND SNOW
POTENTIAL. RUN TO RUN...MODEL TO MODEL AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBER CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO BE LACKING. THAT BEING SAID...SNOW
ACCUMULATION STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON. IT APPEARS TO BE
MORE OF A MATTER OF MINOR SNOWFALL VERSUS SEVERAL INCH SNOWFALL.

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THE 12Z MORNING RUN WAS THE OPERATIONAL GFS
NOW BEING MUCH WEAKER WITH ITS SURFACE LOW DUE TO LESS PHASING OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM JET WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES. THIS IS RESULTING IN LESS 24 HOUR HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS.

LOOKING AT BUFKIT 12Z MODEL PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND
SOUNDINGS...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE MOSTLY SNOW FOR THIS LOOMING SYSTEM EXCEPT THAT THE SNOW COULD
POSSIBLY MIX IN WITH RAIN SOUTH OF BLOOMINGTON BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY.
LESS CONFIDENT IN START TIME...BUT SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK
OK FOR NOW PER THE REGIONAL BLEND...CONSIDERING MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE
SNOW TO THE AREA MIDWEEK. WILL MOSTLY ACCEPT REGIONAL BLEND AS MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES DO NOT LEND A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
DEPARTING FROM THOSE NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 537 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SUSTAINED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
LOWERING OF THE CEILINGS WITH TIME...BUT IT APPEARS CEILINGS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 050 FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE
ON THURSDAY.

SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES AFTER
ABOUT 290900Z...BUT POTENTIAL FOR DIRECT IMPACTS TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 50 KTS MAY MOVE INTO THE
AREA AFTER 290600Z. POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXISTS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THINK BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY
MIXED...SO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSION DOUBTFUL.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 150-170 DEGREES AT 10-14 KTS FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LOCAL SURFACE GUSTS 20-25 KTS AFTER 290600Z
WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET CAN PARTIALLY MIX DOWN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...KOCH
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 282238
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
537 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL DEPART QUICKLY TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS PUSHES TOWARD INDIANA FOR
THURSDAY. AS THE LOW PUSHES ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY...CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW...ALLOWING A RETURN OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES AS WE FINISH THE WORK WEEK.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND NEARLY SEASONABLE COLD
TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS
INDIANA ON LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER OHIO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA...WITH DRY DEW
POINT TEMPS IN THE TEENS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY...AS VISIBLE
PICTURES SHOW ONLY SOME HIGH CIRRUS TRYING TO INVADE FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST...BUT FAILING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS. RIDGING ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE GFS AND NAM
BOTH DEPICT A MODERATE SHORT WAVE TO PUSH INTO INDIANA SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. 295K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY ARRIVING BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES APPEAR TO HOLDING IN THE 4-5 G/KG AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL SHOW SHOW DEEP MOISTURE
ARRIVAL...AND MAINLY SHOW LIFT AMID A DRY COLUMN. BEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARD 12Z...IN THE FORM OF MAINLY LOWER CLOUDS.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE TONIGHT.

GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE IS EXPECTED. IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDING
REVEAL LOWEST LEVELS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...THUS ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS WILL BE RAIN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT TO BE REACHED DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...PROBABLY IN THE FIRST 3-4 HOURS AFTER SUNSET. WILL
TREND LOWS TOWARD EXPECTED TEMPS NEAR 02-03Z...AND TREND WARMER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS ON
THURSDAY. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A MODERATE
SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA ION THURSDAY. BEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEAR 12Z AND LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BEST FORCING IS ARRIVING EARLIER AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. BY 18Z...THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LOST AS THE BULK OF THE SHORT
WAVE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVEL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
THE LOWEST PARTS OF THE COLUMN HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE GONE.

THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MORNING HOURS...TRENDING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST BY
AFTERNOON. A FLURRY OR SNOWFLAKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING EXPECTED...MINIMAL TO NO
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL TREND COOLER THAN
MAVMOS HIGHS. FURTHERMORE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL AND HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE REACHED IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS
WITH A NEARLY STEADY STATE TEMPERATURE.

NAM AND GFS SUGGEST QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SUGGEST
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AMID COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FURTHERMORE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW EARLY
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 20S. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS NEAR
MAVMOS AND FRIDAY HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING IN PLACE OVER
INDIANA SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME A LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH
LIGHT WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AMID
SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGIN ON SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
FORECAST SOUNDING HERE SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF MID CLOUD...TYPICAL
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD AN INCREASING
CLOUDINESS FORECAST WITH HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MEXMOS.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE LATE WEEKEND SNOW
POTENTIAL. RUN TO RUN...MODEL TO MODEL AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBER CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO BE LACKING. THAT BEING SAID...SNOW
ACCUMULATION STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON. IT APPEARS TO BE
MORE OF A MATTER OF MINOR SNOWFALL VERSUS SEVERAL INCH SNOWFALL.

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THE 12Z MORNING RUN WAS THE OPERATIONAL GFS
NOW BEING MUCH WEAKER WITH ITS SURFACE LOW DUE TO LESS PHASING OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM JET WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES. THIS IS RESULTING IN LESS 24 HOUR HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS.

LOOKING AT BUFKIT 12Z MODEL PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND
SOUNDINGS...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE MOSTLY SNOW FOR THIS LOOMING SYSTEM EXCEPT THAT THE SNOW COULD
POSSIBLY MIX IN WITH RAIN SOUTH OF BLOOMINGTON BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY.
LESS CONFIDENT IN START TIME...BUT SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK
OK FOR NOW PER THE REGIONAL BLEND...CONSIDERING MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE
SNOW TO THE AREA MIDWEEK. WILL MOSTLY ACCEPT REGIONAL BLEND AS MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES DO NOT LEND A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
DEPARTING FROM THOSE NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 537 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SUSTAINED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
LOWERING OF THE CEILINGS WITH TIME...BUT IT APPEARS CEILINGS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 050 FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE
ON THURSDAY.

SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES AFTER
ABOUT 290900Z...BUT POTENTIAL FOR DIRECT IMPACTS TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 50 KTS MAY MOVE INTO THE
AREA AFTER 290600Z. POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXISTS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THINK BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY
MIXED...SO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSION DOUBTFUL.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 150-170 DEGREES AT 10-14 KTS FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LOCAL SURFACE GUSTS 20-25 KTS AFTER 290600Z
WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET CAN PARTIALLY MIX DOWN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...KOCH
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 282005
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
305 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL DEPART QUICKLY TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS PUSHES TOWARD INDIANA FOR
THURSDAY. AS THE LOW PUSHES ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY...CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW...ALLOWING A RETURN OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES AS WE FINISH THE WORK WEEK.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND NEARLY SEASONABLE COLD
TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS
INDIANA ON LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER OHIO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA...WITH DRY DEW
POINT TEMPS IN THE TEENS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY...AS VISIBLE
PICTURES SHOW ONLY SOME HIGH CIRRUS TRYING TO INVADE FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST...BUT FAILING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS. RIDGING ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE GFS AND NAM
BOTH DEPICT A MODERATE SHORT WAVE TO PUSH INTO INDIANA SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. 295K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY ARRIVING BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES APPEAR TO HOLDING IN THE 4-5 G/KG AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL SHOW SHOW DEEP MOISTURE
ARRIVAL...AND MAINLY SHOW LIFT AMID A DRY COLUMN. BEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARD 12Z...IN THE FORM OF MAINLY LOWER CLOUDS.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE TONIGHT.

GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE IS EXPECTED. IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDING
REVEAL LOWEST LEVELS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...THUS ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS WILL BE RAIN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT TO BE REACHED DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...PROBABLY IN THE FIRST 3-4 HOURS AFTER SUNSET. WILL
TREND LOWS TOWARD EXPECTED TEMPS NEAR 02-03Z...AND TREND WARMER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS ON
THURSDAY. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A MODERATE
SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA ION THURSDAY. BEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEAR 12Z AND LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BEST FORCING IS ARRIVING EARLIER AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. BY 18Z...THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LOST AS THE BULK OF THE SHORT
WAVE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVEL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
THE LOWEST PARTS OF THE COLUMN HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE GONE.

THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MORNING HOURS...TRENDING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST BY
AFTERNOON. A FLURRY OR SNOWFLAKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING EXPECTED...MINIMAL TO NO
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL TREND COOLER THAN
MAVMOS HIGHS. FURTHERMORE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL AND HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE REACHED IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS
WITH A NEARLY STEADY STATE TEMPERATURE.

NAM AND GFS SUGGEST QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SUGGEST
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AMID COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FURTHERMORE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW EARLY
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 20S. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS NEAR
MAVMOS AND FRIDAY HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING IN PLACE OVER
INDIANA SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME A LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH
LIGHT WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AMID
SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGIN ON SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
FORECAST SOUNDING HERE SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF MID CLOUD...TYPICAL
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD AN INCREASING
CLOUDINESS FORECAST WITH HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MEXMOS.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE LATE WEEKEND SNOW
POTENTIAL. RUN TO RUN...MODEL TO MODEL AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBER CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO BE LACKING. THAT BEING SAID...SNOW
ACCUMULATION STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON. IT APPEARS TO BE
MORE OF A MATTER OF MINOR SNOWFALL VERSUS SEVERAL INCH SNOWFALL.

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THE 12Z MORNING RUN WAS THE OPERATIONAL GFS
NOW BEING MUCH WEAKER WITH ITS SURFACE LOW DUE TO LESS PHASING OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM JET WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES. THIS IS RESULTING IN LESS 24 HOUR HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS.

LOOKING AT BUFKIT 12Z MODEL PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND
SOUNDINGS...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE MOSTLY SNOW FOR THIS LOOMING SYSTEM EXCEPT THAT THE SNOW COULD
POSSIBLY MIX IN WITH RAIN SOUTH OF BLOOMINGTON BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY.
LESS CONFIDENT IN START TIME...BUT SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK
OK FOR NOW PER THE REGIONAL BLEND...CONSIDERING MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE
SNOW TO THE AREA MIDWEEK. WILL MOSTLY ACCEPT REGIONAL BLEND AS MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES DO NOT LEND A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
DEPARTING FROM THOSE NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/21Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

MINOR CHANGE TO WIND DIRECTION ONLY ALTERATION REQUIRED AT IND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 1150 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH AND MID CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...RAIN AND NEAR MVFR STRATOCU IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z
AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH LAF AND HUF AROUND 14Z
THURSDAY AND IND AND BMG AROUND 16Z.

WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH TO AROUND
15 KNOTS. THEN...WINDS WILL BE PICK UP LATE EVENING FROM THE SOUTH
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE. FINALLY...WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...KOCH
AVIATION...MK/NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 282005
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
305 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL DEPART QUICKLY TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS PUSHES TOWARD INDIANA FOR
THURSDAY. AS THE LOW PUSHES ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY...CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW...ALLOWING A RETURN OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES AS WE FINISH THE WORK WEEK.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND NEARLY SEASONABLE COLD
TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS
INDIANA ON LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER OHIO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA...WITH DRY DEW
POINT TEMPS IN THE TEENS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY...AS VISIBLE
PICTURES SHOW ONLY SOME HIGH CIRRUS TRYING TO INVADE FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST...BUT FAILING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS. RIDGING ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE GFS AND NAM
BOTH DEPICT A MODERATE SHORT WAVE TO PUSH INTO INDIANA SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. 295K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY ARRIVING BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES APPEAR TO HOLDING IN THE 4-5 G/KG AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL SHOW SHOW DEEP MOISTURE
ARRIVAL...AND MAINLY SHOW LIFT AMID A DRY COLUMN. BEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARD 12Z...IN THE FORM OF MAINLY LOWER CLOUDS.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE TONIGHT.

GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE IS EXPECTED. IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDING
REVEAL LOWEST LEVELS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...THUS ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS WILL BE RAIN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT TO BE REACHED DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...PROBABLY IN THE FIRST 3-4 HOURS AFTER SUNSET. WILL
TREND LOWS TOWARD EXPECTED TEMPS NEAR 02-03Z...AND TREND WARMER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS ON
THURSDAY. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A MODERATE
SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA ION THURSDAY. BEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEAR 12Z AND LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BEST FORCING IS ARRIVING EARLIER AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. BY 18Z...THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LOST AS THE BULK OF THE SHORT
WAVE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVEL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
THE LOWEST PARTS OF THE COLUMN HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE GONE.

THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MORNING HOURS...TRENDING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST BY
AFTERNOON. A FLURRY OR SNOWFLAKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING EXPECTED...MINIMAL TO NO
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL TREND COOLER THAN
MAVMOS HIGHS. FURTHERMORE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL AND HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE REACHED IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS
WITH A NEARLY STEADY STATE TEMPERATURE.

NAM AND GFS SUGGEST QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SUGGEST
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AMID COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FURTHERMORE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW EARLY
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 20S. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS NEAR
MAVMOS AND FRIDAY HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING IN PLACE OVER
INDIANA SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME A LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH
LIGHT WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AMID
SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGIN ON SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
FORECAST SOUNDING HERE SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF MID CLOUD...TYPICAL
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD AN INCREASING
CLOUDINESS FORECAST WITH HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MEXMOS.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE LATE WEEKEND SNOW
POTENTIAL. RUN TO RUN...MODEL TO MODEL AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBER CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO BE LACKING. THAT BEING SAID...SNOW
ACCUMULATION STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON. IT APPEARS TO BE
MORE OF A MATTER OF MINOR SNOWFALL VERSUS SEVERAL INCH SNOWFALL.

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THE 12Z MORNING RUN WAS THE OPERATIONAL GFS
NOW BEING MUCH WEAKER WITH ITS SURFACE LOW DUE TO LESS PHASING OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM JET WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES. THIS IS RESULTING IN LESS 24 HOUR HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS.

LOOKING AT BUFKIT 12Z MODEL PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND
SOUNDINGS...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE MOSTLY SNOW FOR THIS LOOMING SYSTEM EXCEPT THAT THE SNOW COULD
POSSIBLY MIX IN WITH RAIN SOUTH OF BLOOMINGTON BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY.
LESS CONFIDENT IN START TIME...BUT SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK
OK FOR NOW PER THE REGIONAL BLEND...CONSIDERING MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE
SNOW TO THE AREA MIDWEEK. WILL MOSTLY ACCEPT REGIONAL BLEND AS MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES DO NOT LEND A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
DEPARTING FROM THOSE NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/21Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

MINOR CHANGE TO WIND DIRECTION ONLY ALTERATION REQUIRED AT IND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 1150 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH AND MID CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...RAIN AND NEAR MVFR STRATOCU IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z
AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH LAF AND HUF AROUND 14Z
THURSDAY AND IND AND BMG AROUND 16Z.

WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH TO AROUND
15 KNOTS. THEN...WINDS WILL BE PICK UP LATE EVENING FROM THE SOUTH
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE. FINALLY...WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...KOCH
AVIATION...MK/NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 281941
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
241 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL DEPART QUICKLY TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS PUSHES TOWARD INDIANA FOR
THURSDAY. AS THE LOW PUSHES ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY...CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW...ALLOWING A RETURN OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES AS WE FINISH THE WORK WEEK.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND NEARLY SEASONABLE COLD
TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS
INDIANA ON LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER OHIO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA...WITH DRY DEW
POINT TEMPS IN THE TEENS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY...AS VISIBLE
PICTURES SHOW ONLY SOME HIGH CIRRUS TRYING TO INVADE FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST...BUT FAILING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS. RIDGING ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE GFS AND NAM
BOTH DEPICT A MODERATE SHORT WAVE TO PUSH INTO INDIANA SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. 295K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY ARRIVING BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES APPEAR TO HOLDING IN THE 4-5 G/KG AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL SHOW SHOW DEEP MOISTURE
ARRIVAL...AND MAINLY SHOW LIFT AMID A DRY COLUMN. BEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARD 12Z...IN THE FORM OF MAINLY LOWER CLOUDS.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE TONIGHT.

GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE IS EXPECTED. IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDING
REVEAL LOWEST LEVELS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...THUS ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS WILL BE RAIN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT TO BE REACHED DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...PROBABLY IN THE FIRST 3-4 HOURS AFTER SUNSET. WILL
TREND LOWS TOWARD EXPECTED TEMPS NEAR 02-03Z...AND TREND WARMER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS ON
THURSDAY. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A MODERATE
SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA ION THURSDAY. BEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEAR 12Z AND LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BEST FORCING IS ARRIVING EARLIER AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. BY 18Z...THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LOST AS THE BULK OF THE SHORT
WAVE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVEL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
THE LOWEST PARTS OF THE COLUMN HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE GONE.

THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MORNING HOURS...TRENDING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST BY
AFTERNOON. A FLURRY OR SNOWFLAKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING EXPECTED...MINIMAL TO NO
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL TREND COOLER THAN
MAVMOS HIGHS. FURTHERMORE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL AND HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE REACHED IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS
WITH A NEARLY STEADY STATE TEMPERATURE.

NAM AND GFS SUGGEST QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SUGGEST
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AMID COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FURTHERMORE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW EARLY
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 20S. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS NEAR
MAVMOS AND FRIDAY HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING IN PLACE OVER
INDIANA SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME A LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH
LIGHT WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AMID
SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGIN ON SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
FORECAST SOUNDING HERE SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF MID CLOUD...TYPICAL
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD AN INCREASING
CLOUDINESS FORECAST WITH HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MEXMOS.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE LATE WEEKEND SNOW
POTENTIAL. RUN TO RUN...MODEL TO MODEL AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBER CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO BE LACKING. THAT BEING SAID...SNOW
ACCUMULATION STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON. IT APPEARS TO BE
MORE OF A MATTER OF MINOR SNOWFALL VERSUS SEVERAL INCH SNOWFALL.

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THE 12Z MORNING RUN WAS THE OPERATIONAL GFS
NOW BEING MUCH WEAKER WITH ITS SURFACE LOW DUE TO LESS PHASING OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM JET WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES. THIS IS RESULTING IN LESS 24 HOUR HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS.

LOOKING AT BUFKIT 12Z MODEL PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND
SOUNDINGS...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE MOSTLY SNOW FOR THIS LOOMING SYSTEM EXCEPT THAT THE SNOW COULD
POSSIBLY MIX IN WITH RAIN SOUTH OF BLOOMINGTON BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY.
LESS CONFIDENT IN START TIME...BUT SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK
OK FOR NOW PER THE REGIONAL BLEND...CONSIDERING MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE
SNOW TO THE AREA MIDWEEK. WILL MOSTLY ACCEPT REGIONAL BLEND AS MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES DO NOT LEND A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
DEPARTING FROM THOSE NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH AND MID CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...RAIN AND NEAR MVFR STRATOCU IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z
AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH LAF AND HUF AROUND 14Z
THURSDAY AND IND AND BMG AROUND 16Z.

WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH TO AROUND
15 KNOTS. THEN...WINDS WILL BE PICK UP LATE EVENING FROM THE SOUTH
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE. FINALLY...WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

















000
FXUS63 KIND 281941
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
241 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL DEPART QUICKLY TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS PUSHES TOWARD INDIANA FOR
THURSDAY. AS THE LOW PUSHES ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY...CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW...ALLOWING A RETURN OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES AS WE FINISH THE WORK WEEK.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND NEARLY SEASONABLE COLD
TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS
INDIANA ON LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER OHIO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA...WITH DRY DEW
POINT TEMPS IN THE TEENS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY...AS VISIBLE
PICTURES SHOW ONLY SOME HIGH CIRRUS TRYING TO INVADE FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST...BUT FAILING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS. RIDGING ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE GFS AND NAM
BOTH DEPICT A MODERATE SHORT WAVE TO PUSH INTO INDIANA SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. 295K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY ARRIVING BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES APPEAR TO HOLDING IN THE 4-5 G/KG AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL SHOW SHOW DEEP MOISTURE
ARRIVAL...AND MAINLY SHOW LIFT AMID A DRY COLUMN. BEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARD 12Z...IN THE FORM OF MAINLY LOWER CLOUDS.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE TONIGHT.

GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE IS EXPECTED. IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDING
REVEAL LOWEST LEVELS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...THUS ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS WILL BE RAIN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT TO BE REACHED DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...PROBABLY IN THE FIRST 3-4 HOURS AFTER SUNSET. WILL
TREND LOWS TOWARD EXPECTED TEMPS NEAR 02-03Z...AND TREND WARMER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS ON
THURSDAY. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A MODERATE
SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA ION THURSDAY. BEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEAR 12Z AND LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BEST FORCING IS ARRIVING EARLIER AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. BY 18Z...THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LOST AS THE BULK OF THE SHORT
WAVE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVEL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
THE LOWEST PARTS OF THE COLUMN HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE GONE.

THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MORNING HOURS...TRENDING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST BY
AFTERNOON. A FLURRY OR SNOWFLAKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING EXPECTED...MINIMAL TO NO
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL TREND COOLER THAN
MAVMOS HIGHS. FURTHERMORE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL AND HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE REACHED IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS
WITH A NEARLY STEADY STATE TEMPERATURE.

NAM AND GFS SUGGEST QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SUGGEST
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AMID COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FURTHERMORE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW EARLY
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 20S. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS NEAR
MAVMOS AND FRIDAY HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING IN PLACE OVER
INDIANA SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME A LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH
LIGHT WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AMID
SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGIN ON SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
FORECAST SOUNDING HERE SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF MID CLOUD...TYPICAL
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD AN INCREASING
CLOUDINESS FORECAST WITH HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MEXMOS.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE LATE WEEKEND SNOW
POTENTIAL. RUN TO RUN...MODEL TO MODEL AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBER CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO BE LACKING. THAT BEING SAID...SNOW
ACCUMULATION STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON. IT APPEARS TO BE
MORE OF A MATTER OF MINOR SNOWFALL VERSUS SEVERAL INCH SNOWFALL.

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THE 12Z MORNING RUN WAS THE OPERATIONAL GFS
NOW BEING MUCH WEAKER WITH ITS SURFACE LOW DUE TO LESS PHASING OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM JET WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES. THIS IS RESULTING IN LESS 24 HOUR HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS.

LOOKING AT BUFKIT 12Z MODEL PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND
SOUNDINGS...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE MOSTLY SNOW FOR THIS LOOMING SYSTEM EXCEPT THAT THE SNOW COULD
POSSIBLY MIX IN WITH RAIN SOUTH OF BLOOMINGTON BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY.
LESS CONFIDENT IN START TIME...BUT SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK
OK FOR NOW PER THE REGIONAL BLEND...CONSIDERING MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE
SNOW TO THE AREA MIDWEEK. WILL MOSTLY ACCEPT REGIONAL BLEND AS MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES DO NOT LEND A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
DEPARTING FROM THOSE NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH AND MID CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...RAIN AND NEAR MVFR STRATOCU IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z
AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH LAF AND HUF AROUND 14Z
THURSDAY AND IND AND BMG AROUND 16Z.

WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH TO AROUND
15 KNOTS. THEN...WINDS WILL BE PICK UP LATE EVENING FROM THE SOUTH
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE. FINALLY...WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
















000
FXUS63 KIND 281826
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL DEPART QUICKLY TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS PUSHES TOWARD INDIANA FOR
THURSDAY. AS THE LOW PUSHES ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY...CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW...ALLOWING A RETURN OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES AS WE FINISH THE WORK WEEK.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND NEARLY SEASONABLE COLD TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS
INDIANA ON LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER OHIO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA...WITH DRY DEW
POINT TEMPS IN THE TEENS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY...AS VISIBLE
PICTURES SHOW ONLY SOME HIGH CIRRUS TRYING TO INVADE FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST...BUT FAILING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS. RIDGING ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE GFS AND NAM
BOTH DEPICT A MODERATE SHORT WAVE TO PUSH INTO INDIANA SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. 295K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY ARRIVING BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES APPEAR TO HOLDING IN THE 4-5 G/KG AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL SHOW SHOW DEEP MOISTURE
ARRIVAL...AND MAINLY SHOW LIFT AMID A DRY COLUMN. BEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARD 12Z...IN THE FORM OF MAINLY LOWER CLOUDS.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE TONIGHT.

GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE IS EXPECTED. IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDING
REVEAL LOWEST LEVELS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...THUS ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS WILL BE RAIN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT TO BE REACHED DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...PROBABLY IN THE FIRST 3-4 HOURS AFTER SUNSET. WILL
TREND LOWS TOWARD EXPECTED TEMPS NEAR 02-03Z...AND TREND WARMER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS ON
THURSDAY. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A MODERATE
SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA ION THURSDAY. BEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEAR 12Z AND LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BEST FORCING IS ARRIVING EARLIER AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. BY 18Z...THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LOST AS THE BULK OF THE SHORT
WAVE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVEL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
THE LOWEST PARTS OF THE COLUMN HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE GONE.

THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MORNING HOURS...TRENDING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST BY
AFTERNOON. A FLURRY OR SNOWFLAKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING EXPECTED...MINIMAL TO NO
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL TREND COOLER THAN
MAVMOS HIGHS. FURTHERMORE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL AND HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE REACHED IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS
WITH A NEARLY STEADY STATE TEMPERATURE.

NAM AND GFS SUGGEST QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SUGGEST
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AMID COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FURTHERMORE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW EARLY
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 20S. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS NEAR
MAVMOS AND FRIDAY HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING IN PLACE OVER
INDIANA SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME A LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH
LIGHT WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AMID
SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGIN ON SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
FORECAST SOUNDING HERE SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF MID CLOUD...TYPICAL
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD AN INCREASING
CLOUDINESS FORECAST WITH HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MEXMOS.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON THE GROWING
POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME IN GENERALLY WITH A MORE PHASED LOOK TO THE UPPER JET STRUCTURES
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION.

AFTER A DRY DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...FOCUS WILL TURN TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. VARIATIONS ARE PRESENT BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS WHICH
IS TO BE EXPECTED. THE GGEM AND OP GFS ARE PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE
IN PHASING THE UPPER ENERGY OVER THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY...
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A DEEPENING LOW GOING SUB-1000MB SUNDAY
NIGHT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. ECMWF IS FLATTER IN THE UPPER
LEVELS INITIALLY LENDING TO A FASTER MOVING WAVE WITH THE PHASING
ENERGY ALOFT NOT TAKING PLACE UNTIL AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES. THE
INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE YET TO ORGANIZE INTO A
CONSENSUS SURFACE LOW TRACK AT THIS POINT...SHOWCASING THE
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JETS PHASING.

AT THIS POINT...THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN A FAIRLY IDEAL LOCATION
FOR SNOW TO BE A PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
AS MENTIONED ON TUESDAY MORNING HOWEVER...THE OVERALL HANDLING OF
LOW LEVEL WARM INTRUSIONS THIS WINTER BY MODELS HAVE BEEN
PROBLEMATIC AND TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE DOES NOTHING TO QUELL THAT
CONCERN AT THIS TIME. WITH THIS STORM STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT...IT REMAINS
PREMATURE TO SPECULATE ON DETAILS UNTIL A GREATER MODEL CONSENSUS
CAN BE ACHIEVED.

THE MAIN TAKEAWAY AT THIS EARLY STAGE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING IN A WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WILL CARRY MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SHOULD SNOW END UP AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP
TYPE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. STAY
TUNED.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR COLDEST TEMPS IN ABOUT
3 WEEKS WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN SOME
LOCATIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COULD SEE LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW
ZERO IN SPOTS TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH AND MID CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...RAIN AND NEAR MVFR STRATOCU IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z
AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH LAF AND HUF AROUND 14Z
THURSDAY AND IND AND BMG AROUND 16Z.

WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH TO AROUND
15 KNOTS. THEN...WINDS WILL BE PICK UP LATE EVENING FROM THE SOUTH
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE. FINALLY...WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 281826
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL DEPART QUICKLY TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS PUSHES TOWARD INDIANA FOR
THURSDAY. AS THE LOW PUSHES ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY...CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW...ALLOWING A RETURN OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES AS WE FINISH THE WORK WEEK.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND NEARLY SEASONABLE COLD TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS
INDIANA ON LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER OHIO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA...WITH DRY DEW
POINT TEMPS IN THE TEENS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY...AS VISIBLE
PICTURES SHOW ONLY SOME HIGH CIRRUS TRYING TO INVADE FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST...BUT FAILING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS. RIDGING ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE GFS AND NAM
BOTH DEPICT A MODERATE SHORT WAVE TO PUSH INTO INDIANA SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. 295K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY ARRIVING BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES APPEAR TO HOLDING IN THE 4-5 G/KG AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL SHOW SHOW DEEP MOISTURE
ARRIVAL...AND MAINLY SHOW LIFT AMID A DRY COLUMN. BEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARD 12Z...IN THE FORM OF MAINLY LOWER CLOUDS.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE TONIGHT.

GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE IS EXPECTED. IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDING
REVEAL LOWEST LEVELS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...THUS ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS WILL BE RAIN. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT TO BE REACHED DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...PROBABLY IN THE FIRST 3-4 HOURS AFTER SUNSET. WILL
TREND LOWS TOWARD EXPECTED TEMPS NEAR 02-03Z...AND TREND WARMER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS ON
THURSDAY. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A MODERATE
SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA ION THURSDAY. BEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEAR 12Z AND LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BEST FORCING IS ARRIVING EARLIER AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. BY 18Z...THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LOST AS THE BULK OF THE SHORT
WAVE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVEL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
THE LOWEST PARTS OF THE COLUMN HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE GONE.

THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MORNING HOURS...TRENDING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST BY
AFTERNOON. A FLURRY OR SNOWFLAKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING EXPECTED...MINIMAL TO NO
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL TREND COOLER THAN
MAVMOS HIGHS. FURTHERMORE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL AND HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE REACHED IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS
WITH A NEARLY STEADY STATE TEMPERATURE.

NAM AND GFS SUGGEST QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SUGGEST
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AMID COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FURTHERMORE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW EARLY
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 20S. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS NEAR
MAVMOS AND FRIDAY HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING IN PLACE OVER
INDIANA SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME A LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH
LIGHT WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AMID
SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGIN ON SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
FORECAST SOUNDING HERE SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF MID CLOUD...TYPICAL
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD AN INCREASING
CLOUDINESS FORECAST WITH HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MEXMOS.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON THE GROWING
POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME IN GENERALLY WITH A MORE PHASED LOOK TO THE UPPER JET STRUCTURES
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION.

AFTER A DRY DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...FOCUS WILL TURN TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. VARIATIONS ARE PRESENT BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS WHICH
IS TO BE EXPECTED. THE GGEM AND OP GFS ARE PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE
IN PHASING THE UPPER ENERGY OVER THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY...
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A DEEPENING LOW GOING SUB-1000MB SUNDAY
NIGHT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. ECMWF IS FLATTER IN THE UPPER
LEVELS INITIALLY LENDING TO A FASTER MOVING WAVE WITH THE PHASING
ENERGY ALOFT NOT TAKING PLACE UNTIL AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES. THE
INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE YET TO ORGANIZE INTO A
CONSENSUS SURFACE LOW TRACK AT THIS POINT...SHOWCASING THE
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JETS PHASING.

AT THIS POINT...THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN A FAIRLY IDEAL LOCATION
FOR SNOW TO BE A PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
AS MENTIONED ON TUESDAY MORNING HOWEVER...THE OVERALL HANDLING OF
LOW LEVEL WARM INTRUSIONS THIS WINTER BY MODELS HAVE BEEN
PROBLEMATIC AND TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE DOES NOTHING TO QUELL THAT
CONCERN AT THIS TIME. WITH THIS STORM STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT...IT REMAINS
PREMATURE TO SPECULATE ON DETAILS UNTIL A GREATER MODEL CONSENSUS
CAN BE ACHIEVED.

THE MAIN TAKEAWAY AT THIS EARLY STAGE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING IN A WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WILL CARRY MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SHOULD SNOW END UP AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP
TYPE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. STAY
TUNED.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR COLDEST TEMPS IN ABOUT
3 WEEKS WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN SOME
LOCATIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COULD SEE LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW
ZERO IN SPOTS TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH AND MID CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...RAIN AND NEAR MVFR STRATOCU IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z
AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH LAF AND HUF AROUND 14Z
THURSDAY AND IND AND BMG AROUND 16Z.

WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH TO AROUND
15 KNOTS. THEN...WINDS WILL BE PICK UP LATE EVENING FROM THE SOUTH
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE. FINALLY...WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 281650
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1150 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TO CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 936 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER OHIO AND EASTERN INDIANA. IR PICTURES SHOWS HIGH CO STREAMING
IN THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. RADAR WAS QUIET.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE UNREACHABLE. THUS A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
IS EXPECTED. AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN TEMPS IN THE LOWEST 850MB...THE
ONGOING HIGHS ARE ON THE MARK. LITTLE TO NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAMP UP THIS EVENING WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 50KT. HOWEVER THIS LIFT WILL HAVE LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL KEEP THE EVENING DRY BUT INCREASE THE
CLOUDS.

OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL MOVE IN AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS STILL PRETTY LIMITED IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS. THUS ONLY WENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS STARTING ABOUT 08Z. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT EARLY IN THE
EVENING THEN RISE OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD WARM ADVECTION. BY THE TIME
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD START...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR JUST RAIN.

A COUPLE OF UPPER WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING AND MOISTURE OCCURS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN DURING THAT PERIOD THE BEST MOISTURE
ARRIVES AFTER FORCING HAS PEAKED. THUS JUST WENT CHANCE POPS MOST
AREAS...WITH A THIN AREA OF LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS FORCING
WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES COOL QUICKLY ALOFT...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
STAY MILD FOR A WHILE. THUS ONLY INTRODUCED A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING AS SYSTEM EXITS. CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT
MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN AND PROVIDE DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON THE GROWING
POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME IN GENERALLY WITH A MORE PHASED LOOK TO THE UPPER JET STRUCTURES
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION.

AFTER A DRY DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...FOCUS WILL TURN TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. VARIATIONS ARE PRESENT BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS WHICH
IS TO BE EXPECTED. THE GGEM AND OP GFS ARE PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE
IN PHASING THE UPPER ENERGY OVER THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY...
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A DEEPENING LOW GOING SUB-1000MB SUNDAY
NIGHT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. ECMWF IS FLATTER IN THE UPPER
LEVELS INITIALLY LENDING TO A FASTER MOVING WAVE WITH THE PHASING
ENERGY ALOFT NOT TAKING PLACE UNTIL AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES. THE
INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE YET TO ORGANIZE INTO A
CONSENSUS SURFACE LOW TRACK AT THIS POINT...SHOWCASING THE
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JETS PHASING.

AT THIS POINT...THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN A FAIRLY IDEAL LOCATION
FOR SNOW TO BE A PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
AS MENTIONED ON TUESDAY MORNING HOWEVER...THE OVERALL HANDLING OF
LOW LEVEL WARM INTRUSIONS THIS WINTER BY MODELS HAVE BEEN
PROBLEMATIC AND TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE DOES NOTHING TO QUELL THAT
CONCERN AT THIS TIME. WITH THIS STORM STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT...IT REMAINS
PREMATURE TO SPECULATE ON DETAILS UNTIL A GREATER MODEL CONSENSUS
CAN BE ACHIEVED.

THE MAIN TAKEAWAY AT THIS EARLY STAGE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING IN A WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WILL CARRY MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SHOULD SNOW END UP AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP
TYPE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. STAY
TUNED.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR COLDEST TEMPS IN ABOUT
3 WEEKS WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN SOME
LOCATIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COULD SEE LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW
ZERO IN SPOTS TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH AND MID CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...RAIN AND NEAR MVFR STRATOCU IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z
AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH LAF AND HUF AROUND 14Z
THURSDAY AND IND AND BMG AROUND 16Z.

WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH TO AROUND
15 KNOTS. THEN...WINDS WILL BE PICK UP LATE EVENING FROM THE SOUTH
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE. FINALLY...WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 281650
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1150 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TO CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 936 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER OHIO AND EASTERN INDIANA. IR PICTURES SHOWS HIGH CO STREAMING
IN THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. RADAR WAS QUIET.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE UNREACHABLE. THUS A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
IS EXPECTED. AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN TEMPS IN THE LOWEST 850MB...THE
ONGOING HIGHS ARE ON THE MARK. LITTLE TO NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAMP UP THIS EVENING WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 50KT. HOWEVER THIS LIFT WILL HAVE LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL KEEP THE EVENING DRY BUT INCREASE THE
CLOUDS.

OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL MOVE IN AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS STILL PRETTY LIMITED IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS. THUS ONLY WENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS STARTING ABOUT 08Z. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT EARLY IN THE
EVENING THEN RISE OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD WARM ADVECTION. BY THE TIME
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD START...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR JUST RAIN.

A COUPLE OF UPPER WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING AND MOISTURE OCCURS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN DURING THAT PERIOD THE BEST MOISTURE
ARRIVES AFTER FORCING HAS PEAKED. THUS JUST WENT CHANCE POPS MOST
AREAS...WITH A THIN AREA OF LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS FORCING
WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES COOL QUICKLY ALOFT...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
STAY MILD FOR A WHILE. THUS ONLY INTRODUCED A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING AS SYSTEM EXITS. CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT
MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN AND PROVIDE DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON THE GROWING
POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME IN GENERALLY WITH A MORE PHASED LOOK TO THE UPPER JET STRUCTURES
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION.

AFTER A DRY DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...FOCUS WILL TURN TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. VARIATIONS ARE PRESENT BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS WHICH
IS TO BE EXPECTED. THE GGEM AND OP GFS ARE PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE
IN PHASING THE UPPER ENERGY OVER THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY...
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A DEEPENING LOW GOING SUB-1000MB SUNDAY
NIGHT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. ECMWF IS FLATTER IN THE UPPER
LEVELS INITIALLY LENDING TO A FASTER MOVING WAVE WITH THE PHASING
ENERGY ALOFT NOT TAKING PLACE UNTIL AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES. THE
INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE YET TO ORGANIZE INTO A
CONSENSUS SURFACE LOW TRACK AT THIS POINT...SHOWCASING THE
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JETS PHASING.

AT THIS POINT...THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN A FAIRLY IDEAL LOCATION
FOR SNOW TO BE A PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
AS MENTIONED ON TUESDAY MORNING HOWEVER...THE OVERALL HANDLING OF
LOW LEVEL WARM INTRUSIONS THIS WINTER BY MODELS HAVE BEEN
PROBLEMATIC AND TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE DOES NOTHING TO QUELL THAT
CONCERN AT THIS TIME. WITH THIS STORM STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT...IT REMAINS
PREMATURE TO SPECULATE ON DETAILS UNTIL A GREATER MODEL CONSENSUS
CAN BE ACHIEVED.

THE MAIN TAKEAWAY AT THIS EARLY STAGE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING IN A WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WILL CARRY MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SHOULD SNOW END UP AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP
TYPE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. STAY
TUNED.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR COLDEST TEMPS IN ABOUT
3 WEEKS WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN SOME
LOCATIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COULD SEE LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW
ZERO IN SPOTS TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH AND MID CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...RAIN AND NEAR MVFR STRATOCU IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z
AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH LAF AND HUF AROUND 14Z
THURSDAY AND IND AND BMG AROUND 16Z.

WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH TO AROUND
15 KNOTS. THEN...WINDS WILL BE PICK UP LATE EVENING FROM THE SOUTH
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE. FINALLY...WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 281447
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
947 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TO CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 936 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER OHIO AND EASTERN INDIANA. IR PICTURES SHOWS HIGH CO STREAMING
IN THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. RADAR WAS QUIET.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE UNREACHABLE. THUS A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
IS EXPECTED. AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN TEMPS IN THE LOWEST 850MB...THE
ONGOING HIGHS ARE ON THE MARK. LITTLE TO NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAMP UP THIS EVENING WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 50KT. HOWEVER THIS LIFT WILL HAVE LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL KEEP THE EVENING DRY BUT INCREASE THE
CLOUDS.

OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL MOVE IN AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS STILL PRETTY LIMITED IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS. THUS ONLY WENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS STARTING ABOUT 08Z. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT EARLY IN THE
EVENING THEN RISE OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD WARM ADVECTION. BY THE TIME
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD START...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR JUST RAIN.

A COUPLE OF UPPER WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING AND MOISTURE OCCURS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN DURING THAT PERIOD THE BEST MOISTURE
ARRIVES AFTER FORCING HAS PEAKED. THUS JUST WENT CHANCE POPS MOST
AREAS...WITH A THIN AREA OF LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS FORCING
WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES COOL QUICKLY ALOFT...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
STAY MILD FOR A WHILE. THUS ONLY INTRODUCED A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING AS SYSTEM EXITS. CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT
MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN AND PROVIDE DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON THE GROWING
POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME IN GENERALLY WITH A MORE PHASED LOOK TO THE UPPER JET STRUCTURES
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION.

AFTER A DRY DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...FOCUS WILL TURN TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. VARIATIONS ARE PRESENT BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS WHICH
IS TO BE EXPECTED. THE GGEM AND OP GFS ARE PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE
IN PHASING THE UPPER ENERGY OVER THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY...
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A DEEPENING LOW GOING SUB-1000MB SUNDAY
NIGHT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. ECMWF IS FLATTER IN THE UPPER
LEVELS INITIALLY LENDING TO A FASTER MOVING WAVE WITH THE PHASING
ENERGY ALOFT NOT TAKING PLACE UNTIL AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES. THE
INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE YET TO ORGANIZE INTO A
CONSENSUS SURFACE LOW TRACK AT THIS POINT...SHOWCASING THE
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JETS PHASING.

AT THIS POINT...THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN A FAIRLY IDEAL LOCATION
FOR SNOW TO BE A PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
AS MENTIONED ON TUESDAY MORNING HOWEVER...THE OVERALL HANDLING OF
LOW LEVEL WARM INTRUSIONS THIS WINTER BY MODELS HAVE BEEN
PROBLEMATIC AND TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE DOES NOTHING TO QUELL THAT
CONCERN AT THIS TIME. WITH THIS STORM STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT...IT REMAINS
PREMATURE TO SPECULATE ON DETAILS UNTIL A GREATER MODEL CONSENSUS
CAN BE ACHIEVED.

THE MAIN TAKEAWAY AT THIS EARLY STAGE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING IN A WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WILL CARRY MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SHOULD SNOW END UP AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP
TYPE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. STAY
TUNED.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR COLDEST TEMPS IN ABOUT
3 WEEKS WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN SOME
LOCATIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COULD SEE LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW
ZERO IN SPOTS TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 925 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED TODAY...WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-15KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
AFTER 06Z AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL
VEER TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE TONIGHT...INCREASING TO AROUND 15KTS
WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 281447
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
947 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TO CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 936 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER OHIO AND EASTERN INDIANA. IR PICTURES SHOWS HIGH CO STREAMING
IN THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. RADAR WAS QUIET.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE UNREACHABLE. THUS A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
IS EXPECTED. AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN TEMPS IN THE LOWEST 850MB...THE
ONGOING HIGHS ARE ON THE MARK. LITTLE TO NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAMP UP THIS EVENING WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 50KT. HOWEVER THIS LIFT WILL HAVE LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL KEEP THE EVENING DRY BUT INCREASE THE
CLOUDS.

OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL MOVE IN AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS STILL PRETTY LIMITED IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS. THUS ONLY WENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS STARTING ABOUT 08Z. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT EARLY IN THE
EVENING THEN RISE OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD WARM ADVECTION. BY THE TIME
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD START...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR JUST RAIN.

A COUPLE OF UPPER WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING AND MOISTURE OCCURS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN DURING THAT PERIOD THE BEST MOISTURE
ARRIVES AFTER FORCING HAS PEAKED. THUS JUST WENT CHANCE POPS MOST
AREAS...WITH A THIN AREA OF LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS FORCING
WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES COOL QUICKLY ALOFT...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
STAY MILD FOR A WHILE. THUS ONLY INTRODUCED A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING AS SYSTEM EXITS. CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT
MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN AND PROVIDE DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON THE GROWING
POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME IN GENERALLY WITH A MORE PHASED LOOK TO THE UPPER JET STRUCTURES
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION.

AFTER A DRY DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...FOCUS WILL TURN TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. VARIATIONS ARE PRESENT BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS WHICH
IS TO BE EXPECTED. THE GGEM AND OP GFS ARE PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE
IN PHASING THE UPPER ENERGY OVER THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY...
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A DEEPENING LOW GOING SUB-1000MB SUNDAY
NIGHT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. ECMWF IS FLATTER IN THE UPPER
LEVELS INITIALLY LENDING TO A FASTER MOVING WAVE WITH THE PHASING
ENERGY ALOFT NOT TAKING PLACE UNTIL AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES. THE
INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE YET TO ORGANIZE INTO A
CONSENSUS SURFACE LOW TRACK AT THIS POINT...SHOWCASING THE
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JETS PHASING.

AT THIS POINT...THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN A FAIRLY IDEAL LOCATION
FOR SNOW TO BE A PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
AS MENTIONED ON TUESDAY MORNING HOWEVER...THE OVERALL HANDLING OF
LOW LEVEL WARM INTRUSIONS THIS WINTER BY MODELS HAVE BEEN
PROBLEMATIC AND TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE DOES NOTHING TO QUELL THAT
CONCERN AT THIS TIME. WITH THIS STORM STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT...IT REMAINS
PREMATURE TO SPECULATE ON DETAILS UNTIL A GREATER MODEL CONSENSUS
CAN BE ACHIEVED.

THE MAIN TAKEAWAY AT THIS EARLY STAGE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING IN A WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WILL CARRY MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SHOULD SNOW END UP AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP
TYPE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. STAY
TUNED.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR COLDEST TEMPS IN ABOUT
3 WEEKS WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN SOME
LOCATIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COULD SEE LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW
ZERO IN SPOTS TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 925 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED TODAY...WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-15KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
AFTER 06Z AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL
VEER TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE TONIGHT...INCREASING TO AROUND 15KTS
WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 281447
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
947 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TO CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 936 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER OHIO AND EASTERN INDIANA. IR PICTURES SHOWS HIGH CO STREAMING
IN THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. RADAR WAS QUIET.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE UNREACHABLE. THUS A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
IS EXPECTED. AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN TEMPS IN THE LOWEST 850MB...THE
ONGOING HIGHS ARE ON THE MARK. LITTLE TO NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAMP UP THIS EVENING WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 50KT. HOWEVER THIS LIFT WILL HAVE LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL KEEP THE EVENING DRY BUT INCREASE THE
CLOUDS.

OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL MOVE IN AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS STILL PRETTY LIMITED IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS. THUS ONLY WENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS STARTING ABOUT 08Z. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT EARLY IN THE
EVENING THEN RISE OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD WARM ADVECTION. BY THE TIME
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD START...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR JUST RAIN.

A COUPLE OF UPPER WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING AND MOISTURE OCCURS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN DURING THAT PERIOD THE BEST MOISTURE
ARRIVES AFTER FORCING HAS PEAKED. THUS JUST WENT CHANCE POPS MOST
AREAS...WITH A THIN AREA OF LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS FORCING
WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES COOL QUICKLY ALOFT...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
STAY MILD FOR A WHILE. THUS ONLY INTRODUCED A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING AS SYSTEM EXITS. CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT
MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN AND PROVIDE DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON THE GROWING
POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME IN GENERALLY WITH A MORE PHASED LOOK TO THE UPPER JET STRUCTURES
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION.

AFTER A DRY DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...FOCUS WILL TURN TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. VARIATIONS ARE PRESENT BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS WHICH
IS TO BE EXPECTED. THE GGEM AND OP GFS ARE PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE
IN PHASING THE UPPER ENERGY OVER THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY...
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A DEEPENING LOW GOING SUB-1000MB SUNDAY
NIGHT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. ECMWF IS FLATTER IN THE UPPER
LEVELS INITIALLY LENDING TO A FASTER MOVING WAVE WITH THE PHASING
ENERGY ALOFT NOT TAKING PLACE UNTIL AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES. THE
INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE YET TO ORGANIZE INTO A
CONSENSUS SURFACE LOW TRACK AT THIS POINT...SHOWCASING THE
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JETS PHASING.

AT THIS POINT...THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN A FAIRLY IDEAL LOCATION
FOR SNOW TO BE A PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
AS MENTIONED ON TUESDAY MORNING HOWEVER...THE OVERALL HANDLING OF
LOW LEVEL WARM INTRUSIONS THIS WINTER BY MODELS HAVE BEEN
PROBLEMATIC AND TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE DOES NOTHING TO QUELL THAT
CONCERN AT THIS TIME. WITH THIS STORM STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT...IT REMAINS
PREMATURE TO SPECULATE ON DETAILS UNTIL A GREATER MODEL CONSENSUS
CAN BE ACHIEVED.

THE MAIN TAKEAWAY AT THIS EARLY STAGE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING IN A WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WILL CARRY MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SHOULD SNOW END UP AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP
TYPE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. STAY
TUNED.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR COLDEST TEMPS IN ABOUT
3 WEEKS WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN SOME
LOCATIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COULD SEE LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW
ZERO IN SPOTS TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 925 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED TODAY...WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-15KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
AFTER 06Z AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL
VEER TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE TONIGHT...INCREASING TO AROUND 15KTS
WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 281426
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
925 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TO CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SATELLITE SHOWS SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO ARRIVE IN
CENTRAL INDIANA. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD
TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COLD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
WHERE SOME SNOW COVER LINGERS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE
TODAY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TO IN BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV MOS
NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAMP UP THIS EVENING WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 50KT. HOWEVER THIS LIFT WILL HAVE LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL KEEP THE EVENING DRY BUT INCREASE THE
CLOUDS.

OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL MOVE IN AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS STILL PRETTY LIMITED IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS. THUS ONLY WENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS STARTING ABOUT 08Z. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT EARLY IN THE
EVENING THEN RISE OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD WARM ADVECTION. BY THE TIME
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD START...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR JUST RAIN.

A COUPLE OF UPPER WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING AND MOISTURE OCCURS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN DURING THAT PERIOD THE BEST MOISTURE
ARRIVES AFTER FORCING HAS PEAKED. THUS JUST WENT CHANCE POPS MOST
AREAS...WITH A THIN AREA OF LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS FORCING
WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES COOL QUICKLY ALOFT...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
STAY MILD FOR A WHILE. THUS ONLY INTRODUCED A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING AS SYSTEM EXITS. CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT
MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN AND PROVIDE DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON THE GROWING
POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME IN GENERALLY WITH A MORE PHASED LOOK TO THE UPPER JET STRUCTURES
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION.

AFTER A DRY DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...FOCUS WILL TURN TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. VARIATIONS ARE PRESENT BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS WHICH
IS TO BE EXPECTED. THE GGEM AND OP GFS ARE PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE
IN PHASING THE UPPER ENERGY OVER THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY...
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A DEEPENING LOW GOING SUB-1000MB SUNDAY
NIGHT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. ECMWF IS FLATTER IN THE UPPER
LEVELS INITIALLY LENDING TO A FASTER MOVING WAVE WITH THE PHASING
ENERGY ALOFT NOT TAKING PLACE UNTIL AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES. THE
INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE YET TO ORGANIZE INTO A
CONSENSUS SURFACE LOW TRACK AT THIS POINT...SHOWCASING THE
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JETS PHASING.

AT THIS POINT...THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN A FAIRLY IDEAL LOCATION
FOR SNOW TO BE A PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
AS MENTIONED ON TUESDAY MORNING HOWEVER...THE OVERALL HANDLING OF
LOW LEVEL WARM INTRUSIONS THIS WINTER BY MODELS HAVE BEEN
PROBLEMATIC AND TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE DOES NOTHING TO QUELL THAT
CONCERN AT THIS TIME. WITH THIS STORM STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT...IT REMAINS
PREMATURE TO SPECULATE ON DETAILS UNTIL A GREATER MODEL CONSENSUS
CAN BE ACHIEVED.

THE MAIN TAKEAWAY AT THIS EARLY STAGE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING IN A WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WILL CARRY MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SHOULD SNOW END UP AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP
TYPE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. STAY
TUNED.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR COLDEST TEMPS IN ABOUT
3 WEEKS WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN SOME
LOCATIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COULD SEE LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW
ZERO IN SPOTS TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 925 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED TODAY...WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-15KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
AFTER 06Z AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL
VEER TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE TONIGHT...INCREASING TO AROUND 15KTS
WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 281426
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
925 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TO CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SATELLITE SHOWS SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO ARRIVE IN
CENTRAL INDIANA. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD
TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COLD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
WHERE SOME SNOW COVER LINGERS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE
TODAY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TO IN BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV MOS
NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAMP UP THIS EVENING WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 50KT. HOWEVER THIS LIFT WILL HAVE LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL KEEP THE EVENING DRY BUT INCREASE THE
CLOUDS.

OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL MOVE IN AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS STILL PRETTY LIMITED IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS. THUS ONLY WENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS STARTING ABOUT 08Z. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT EARLY IN THE
EVENING THEN RISE OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD WARM ADVECTION. BY THE TIME
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD START...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR JUST RAIN.

A COUPLE OF UPPER WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING AND MOISTURE OCCURS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN DURING THAT PERIOD THE BEST MOISTURE
ARRIVES AFTER FORCING HAS PEAKED. THUS JUST WENT CHANCE POPS MOST
AREAS...WITH A THIN AREA OF LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS FORCING
WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES COOL QUICKLY ALOFT...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
STAY MILD FOR A WHILE. THUS ONLY INTRODUCED A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING AS SYSTEM EXITS. CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT
MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN AND PROVIDE DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON THE GROWING
POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME IN GENERALLY WITH A MORE PHASED LOOK TO THE UPPER JET STRUCTURES
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION.

AFTER A DRY DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...FOCUS WILL TURN TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. VARIATIONS ARE PRESENT BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS WHICH
IS TO BE EXPECTED. THE GGEM AND OP GFS ARE PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE
IN PHASING THE UPPER ENERGY OVER THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY...
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A DEEPENING LOW GOING SUB-1000MB SUNDAY
NIGHT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. ECMWF IS FLATTER IN THE UPPER
LEVELS INITIALLY LENDING TO A FASTER MOVING WAVE WITH THE PHASING
ENERGY ALOFT NOT TAKING PLACE UNTIL AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES. THE
INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE YET TO ORGANIZE INTO A
CONSENSUS SURFACE LOW TRACK AT THIS POINT...SHOWCASING THE
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JETS PHASING.

AT THIS POINT...THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN A FAIRLY IDEAL LOCATION
FOR SNOW TO BE A PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
AS MENTIONED ON TUESDAY MORNING HOWEVER...THE OVERALL HANDLING OF
LOW LEVEL WARM INTRUSIONS THIS WINTER BY MODELS HAVE BEEN
PROBLEMATIC AND TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE DOES NOTHING TO QUELL THAT
CONCERN AT THIS TIME. WITH THIS STORM STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT...IT REMAINS
PREMATURE TO SPECULATE ON DETAILS UNTIL A GREATER MODEL CONSENSUS
CAN BE ACHIEVED.

THE MAIN TAKEAWAY AT THIS EARLY STAGE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING IN A WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WILL CARRY MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SHOULD SNOW END UP AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP
TYPE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. STAY
TUNED.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR COLDEST TEMPS IN ABOUT
3 WEEKS WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN SOME
LOCATIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COULD SEE LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW
ZERO IN SPOTS TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 925 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED TODAY...WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-15KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
AFTER 06Z AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL
VEER TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE TONIGHT...INCREASING TO AROUND 15KTS
WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 281054
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
554 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TO CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SATELLITE SHOWS SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO ARRIVE IN
CENTRAL INDIANA. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD
TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COLD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
WHERE SOME SNOW COVER LINGERS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE
TODAY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TO IN BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV MOS
NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAMP UP THIS EVENING WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 50KT. HOWEVER THIS LIFT WILL HAVE LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL KEEP THE EVENING DRY BUT INCREASE THE
CLOUDS.

OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL MOVE IN AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS STILL PRETTY LIMITED IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS. THUS ONLY WENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS STARTING ABOUT 08Z. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT EARLY IN THE
EVENING THEN RISE OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD WARM ADVECTION. BY THE TIME
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD START...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR JUST RAIN.

A COUPLE OF UPPER WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING AND MOISTURE OCCURS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN DURING THAT PERIOD THE BEST MOISTURE
ARRIVES AFTER FORCING HAS PEAKED. THUS JUST WENT CHANCE POPS MOST
AREAS...WITH A THIN AREA OF LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS FORCING
WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES COOL QUICKLY ALOFT...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
STAY MILD FOR A WHILE. THUS ONLY INTRODUCED A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING AS SYSTEM EXITS. CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT
MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN AND PROVIDE DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON THE GROWING
POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME IN GENERALLY WITH A MORE PHASED LOOK TO THE UPPER JET STRUCTURES
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION.

AFTER A DRY DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...FOCUS WILL TURN TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. VARIATIONS ARE PRESENT BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS WHICH
IS TO BE EXPECTED. THE GGEM AND OP GFS ARE PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE
IN PHASING THE UPPER ENERGY OVER THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY...
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A DEEPENING LOW GOING SUB-1000MB SUNDAY
NIGHT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. ECMWF IS FLATTER IN THE UPPER
LEVELS INITIALLY LENDING TO A FASTER MOVING WAVE WITH THE PHASING
ENERGY ALOFT NOT TAKING PLACE UNTIL AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES. THE
INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE YET TO ORGANIZE INTO A
CONSENSUS SURFACE LOW TRACK AT THIS POINT...SHOWCASING THE
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JETS PHASING.

AT THIS POINT...THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN A FAIRLY IDEAL LOCATION
FOR SNOW TO BE A PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
AS MENTIONED ON TUESDAY MORNING HOWEVER...THE OVERALL HANDLING OF
LOW LEVEL WARM INTRUSIONS THIS WINTER BY MODELS HAVE BEEN
PROBLEMATIC AND TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE DOES NOTHING TO QUELL THAT
CONCERN AT THIS TIME. WITH THIS STORM STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT...IT REMAINS
PREMATURE TO SPECULATE ON DETAILS UNTIL A GREATER MODEL CONSENSUS
CAN BE ACHIEVED.

THE MAIN TAKEAWAY AT THIS EARLY STAGE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING IN A WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WILL CARRY MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SHOULD SNOW END UP AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP
TYPE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. STAY
TUNED.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR COLDEST TEMPS IN ABOUT
3 WEEKS WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN SOME
LOCATIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COULD SEE LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW
ZERO IN SPOTS TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 554 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED TODAY...WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-15KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
AFTER 06Z AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL
VEER TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE TONIGHT...INCREASING TO AROUND 15KTS
WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 281054
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
554 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TO CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SATELLITE SHOWS SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO ARRIVE IN
CENTRAL INDIANA. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD
TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COLD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
WHERE SOME SNOW COVER LINGERS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE
TODAY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TO IN BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV MOS
NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAMP UP THIS EVENING WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 50KT. HOWEVER THIS LIFT WILL HAVE LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL KEEP THE EVENING DRY BUT INCREASE THE
CLOUDS.

OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL MOVE IN AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS STILL PRETTY LIMITED IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS. THUS ONLY WENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS STARTING ABOUT 08Z. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT EARLY IN THE
EVENING THEN RISE OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD WARM ADVECTION. BY THE TIME
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD START...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR JUST RAIN.

A COUPLE OF UPPER WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING AND MOISTURE OCCURS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN DURING THAT PERIOD THE BEST MOISTURE
ARRIVES AFTER FORCING HAS PEAKED. THUS JUST WENT CHANCE POPS MOST
AREAS...WITH A THIN AREA OF LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS FORCING
WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES COOL QUICKLY ALOFT...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
STAY MILD FOR A WHILE. THUS ONLY INTRODUCED A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING AS SYSTEM EXITS. CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT
MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN AND PROVIDE DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON THE GROWING
POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME IN GENERALLY WITH A MORE PHASED LOOK TO THE UPPER JET STRUCTURES
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION.

AFTER A DRY DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...FOCUS WILL TURN TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. VARIATIONS ARE PRESENT BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS WHICH
IS TO BE EXPECTED. THE GGEM AND OP GFS ARE PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE
IN PHASING THE UPPER ENERGY OVER THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY...
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A DEEPENING LOW GOING SUB-1000MB SUNDAY
NIGHT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. ECMWF IS FLATTER IN THE UPPER
LEVELS INITIALLY LENDING TO A FASTER MOVING WAVE WITH THE PHASING
ENERGY ALOFT NOT TAKING PLACE UNTIL AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES. THE
INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE YET TO ORGANIZE INTO A
CONSENSUS SURFACE LOW TRACK AT THIS POINT...SHOWCASING THE
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JETS PHASING.

AT THIS POINT...THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN A FAIRLY IDEAL LOCATION
FOR SNOW TO BE A PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
AS MENTIONED ON TUESDAY MORNING HOWEVER...THE OVERALL HANDLING OF
LOW LEVEL WARM INTRUSIONS THIS WINTER BY MODELS HAVE BEEN
PROBLEMATIC AND TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE DOES NOTHING TO QUELL THAT
CONCERN AT THIS TIME. WITH THIS STORM STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT...IT REMAINS
PREMATURE TO SPECULATE ON DETAILS UNTIL A GREATER MODEL CONSENSUS
CAN BE ACHIEVED.

THE MAIN TAKEAWAY AT THIS EARLY STAGE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING IN A WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WILL CARRY MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SHOULD SNOW END UP AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP
TYPE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. STAY
TUNED.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR COLDEST TEMPS IN ABOUT
3 WEEKS WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN SOME
LOCATIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COULD SEE LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW
ZERO IN SPOTS TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 554 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED TODAY...WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-15KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
AFTER 06Z AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL
VEER TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE TONIGHT...INCREASING TO AROUND 15KTS
WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 280827
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
327 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TO CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SATELLITE SHOWS SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO ARRIVE IN
CENTRAL INDIANA. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD
TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COLD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
WHERE SOME SNOW COVER LINGERS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE
TODAY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TO IN BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV MOS
NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAMP UP THIS EVENING WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 50KT. HOWEVER THIS LIFT WILL HAVE LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL KEEP THE EVENING DRY BUT INCREASE THE
CLOUDS.

OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL MOVE IN AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS STILL PRETTY LIMITED IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS. THUS ONLY WENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS STARTING ABOUT 08Z. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT EARLY IN THE
EVENING THEN RISE OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD WARM ADVECTION. BY THE TIME
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD START...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR JUST RAIN.

A COUPLE OF UPPER WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING AND MOISTURE OCCURS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN DURING THAT PERIOD THE BEST MOISTURE
ARRIVES AFTER FORCING HAS PEAKED. THUS JUST WENT CHANCE POPS MOST
AREAS...WITH A THIN AREA OF LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS FORCING
WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES COOL QUICKLY ALOFT...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
STAY MILD FOR A WHILE. THUS ONLY INTRODUCED A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING AS SYSTEM EXITS. CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT
MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN AND PROVIDE DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON THE GROWING
POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME IN GENERALLY WITH A MORE PHASED LOOK TO THE UPPER JET STRUCTURES
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION.

AFTER A DRY DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...FOCUS WILL TURN TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. VARIATIONS ARE PRESENT BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS WHICH
IS TO BE EXPECTED. THE GGEM AND OP GFS ARE PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE
IN PHASING THE UPPER ENERGY OVER THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY...
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A DEEPENING LOW GOING SUB-1000MB SUNDAY
NIGHT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. ECMWF IS FLATTER IN THE UPPER
LEVELS INITIALLY LENDING TO A FASTER MOVING WAVE WITH THE PHASING
ENERGY ALOFT NOT TAKING PLACE UNTIL AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES. THE
INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE YET TO ORGANIZE INTO A
CONSENSUS SURFACE LOW TRACK AT THIS POINT...SHOWCASING THE
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JETS PHASING.

AT THIS POINT...THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN A FAIRLY IDEAL LOCATION
FOR SNOW TO BE A PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
AS MENTIONED ON TUESDAY MORNING HOWEVER...THE OVERALL HANDLING OF
LOW LEVEL WARM INTRUSIONS THIS WINTER BY MODELS HAVE BEEN
PROBLEMATIC AND TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE DOES NOTHING TO QUELL THAT
CONCERN AT THIS TIME. WITH THIS STORM STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT...IT REMAINS
PREMATURE TO SPECULATE ON DETAILS UNTIL A GREATER MODEL CONSENSUS
CAN BE ACHIEVED.

THE MAIN TAKEAWAY AT THIS EARLY STAGE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING IN A WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WILL CARRY MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SHOULD SNOW END UP AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP
TYPE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. STAY
TUNED.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR COLDEST TEMPS IN ABOUT
3 WEEKS WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN SOME
LOCATIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COULD SEE LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW
ZERO IN SPOTS TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. NO CHANGES NECESSARY,

06Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 281800Z.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO BECOME 140-160 DEGREES AT
7-10 KTS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...JAS/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 280800
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TO CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SATELLITE SHOWS SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO ARRIVE IN
CENTRAL INDIANA. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD
TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COLD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
WHERE SOME SNOW COVER LINGERS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE
TODAY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TO IN BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV MOS
NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAMP UP THIS EVENING WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 50KT. HOWEVER THIS LIFT WILL HAVE LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL KEEP THE EVENING DRY BUT INCREASE THE
CLOUDS.

OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL MOVE IN AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS STILL PRETTY LIMITED IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS. THUS ONLY WENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS STARTING ABOUT 08Z. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT EARLY IN THE
EVENING THEN RISE OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD WARM ADVECTION. BY THE TIME
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD START...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR JUST RAIN.

A COUPLE OF UPPER WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING AND MOISTURE OCCURS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN DURING THAT PERIOD THE BEST MOISTURE
ARRIVES AFTER FORCING HAS PEAKED. THUS JUST WENT CHANCE POPS MOST
AREAS...WITH A THIN AREA OF LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS FORCING
WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES COOL QUICKLY ALOFT...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
STAY MILD FOR A WHILE. THUS ONLY INTRODUCED A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING AS SYSTEM EXITS. CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT
MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN AND PROVIDE DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON THE GROWING
POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME IN GENERALLY WITH A MORE PHASED LOOK TO THE UPPER JET STRUCTURES
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION.

AFTER A DRY DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...FOCUS WILL TURN TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. VARIATIONS ARE PRESENT BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS WHICH
IS TO BE EXPECTED. THE GGEM AND OP GFS ARE PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE
IN PHASING THE UPPER ENERGY OVER THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY...
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A DEEPENING LOW GOING SUB-1000MB SUNDAY
NIGHT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. ECMWF IS FLATTER IN THE UPPER
LEVELS INITIALLY LENDING TO A FASTER MOVING WAVE WITH THE PHASING
ENERGY ALOFT NOT TAKING PLACE UNTIL AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES. THE
INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE YET TO ORGANIZE INTO A
CONSENSUS SURFACE LOW TRACK AT THIS POINT...SHOWCASING THE
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JETS PHASING.

AT THIS POINT...THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN A FAIRLY IDEAL LOCATION
FOR SNOW TO BE A PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
AS MENTIONED ON TUESDAY MORNING HOWEVER...THE OVERALL HANDLING OF
LOW LEVEL WARM INTRUSIONS THIS WINTER BY MODELS HAVE BEEN
PROBLEMATIC AND TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE DOES NOTHING TO QUELL THAT
CONCERN AT THIS TIME. WITH THIS STORM STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT...IT REMAINS
PREMATURE TO SPECULATE ON DETAILS UNTIL A GREATER MODEL CONSENSUS
CAN BE ACHIEVED.

THE MAIN TAKEAWAY AT THIS EARLY STAGE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING IN A WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WILL CARRY MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SHOULD SNOW END UP AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP
TYPE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. STAY
TUNED.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR COLDEST TEMPS IN ABOUT
3 WEEKS WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN SOME
LOCATIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COULD SEE LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW
ZERO IN SPOTS TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 281800Z.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO BECOME 140-160 DEGREES AT
7-10 KTS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 280800
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TO CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SATELLITE SHOWS SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO ARRIVE IN
CENTRAL INDIANA. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD
TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COLD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
WHERE SOME SNOW COVER LINGERS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE
TODAY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TO IN BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV MOS
NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAMP UP THIS EVENING WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 50KT. HOWEVER THIS LIFT WILL HAVE LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL KEEP THE EVENING DRY BUT INCREASE THE
CLOUDS.

OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL MOVE IN AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS STILL PRETTY LIMITED IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS. THUS ONLY WENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS STARTING ABOUT 08Z. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT EARLY IN THE
EVENING THEN RISE OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD WARM ADVECTION. BY THE TIME
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD START...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR JUST RAIN.

A COUPLE OF UPPER WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING AND MOISTURE OCCURS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN DURING THAT PERIOD THE BEST MOISTURE
ARRIVES AFTER FORCING HAS PEAKED. THUS JUST WENT CHANCE POPS MOST
AREAS...WITH A THIN AREA OF LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS FORCING
WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES COOL QUICKLY ALOFT...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
STAY MILD FOR A WHILE. THUS ONLY INTRODUCED A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING AS SYSTEM EXITS. CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT
MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN AND PROVIDE DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON THE GROWING
POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME IN GENERALLY WITH A MORE PHASED LOOK TO THE UPPER JET STRUCTURES
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION.

AFTER A DRY DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...FOCUS WILL TURN TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. VARIATIONS ARE PRESENT BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS WHICH
IS TO BE EXPECTED. THE GGEM AND OP GFS ARE PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE
IN PHASING THE UPPER ENERGY OVER THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY...
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A DEEPENING LOW GOING SUB-1000MB SUNDAY
NIGHT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. ECMWF IS FLATTER IN THE UPPER
LEVELS INITIALLY LENDING TO A FASTER MOVING WAVE WITH THE PHASING
ENERGY ALOFT NOT TAKING PLACE UNTIL AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES. THE
INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE YET TO ORGANIZE INTO A
CONSENSUS SURFACE LOW TRACK AT THIS POINT...SHOWCASING THE
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JETS PHASING.

AT THIS POINT...THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN A FAIRLY IDEAL LOCATION
FOR SNOW TO BE A PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
AS MENTIONED ON TUESDAY MORNING HOWEVER...THE OVERALL HANDLING OF
LOW LEVEL WARM INTRUSIONS THIS WINTER BY MODELS HAVE BEEN
PROBLEMATIC AND TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE DOES NOTHING TO QUELL THAT
CONCERN AT THIS TIME. WITH THIS STORM STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT...IT REMAINS
PREMATURE TO SPECULATE ON DETAILS UNTIL A GREATER MODEL CONSENSUS
CAN BE ACHIEVED.

THE MAIN TAKEAWAY AT THIS EARLY STAGE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING IN A WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WILL CARRY MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SHOULD SNOW END UP AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP
TYPE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. STAY
TUNED.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR COLDEST TEMPS IN ABOUT
3 WEEKS WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN SOME
LOCATIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COULD SEE LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW
ZERO IN SPOTS TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 281800Z.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO BECOME 140-160 DEGREES AT
7-10 KTS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 280750
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
250 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW
CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED AS GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE. DID MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS FOR LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS
BUT OTHERWISE GRIDS LOOK GOOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL TAKE ON AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS A STRONG SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
WORK ITS WAY UP THE EAST COAST.

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS
SCATTER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE
IN THE LOW 20S. AS A RESULT...TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST. NAM/GFS/EURO ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH FIRST
WAVE OF ENERGY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
AROUND THU 09Z. ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY STARTS STRENGTHENING AFTER
THU 12Z...MAKING THE THU 12-18Z TIME FRAME THE BEST FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THAT TIME THOUGH...SO WILL GO WITH AN ALL RAIN FORECAST.
COOLER AIR WILL START FILTERING IN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND THU 21Z. BY THE TIME THE COLDEST
AIR IS IN PLACE AND ALL PRECIPITATION IS TRANSITIONED TO
SNOW...MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION.

SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDWEST.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND DUE TO THE GOOD
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...THEN DROPPING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON THE GROWING POTENTIAL
FOR A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME IN
GENERALLY WITH A MORE PHASED LOOK TO THE UPPER JET STRUCTURES
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE TRACKING THROUGH
THE REGION.

AFTER A DRY DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...FOCUS WILL TURN TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. VARIATIONS ARE PRESENT BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS WHICH
IS TO BE EXPECTED. THE GGEM AND OP GFS ARE PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE
IN PHASING THE UPPER ENERGY OVER THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY...
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A DEEPENING LOW GOING SUB-1000MB SUNDAY
NIGHT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. ECMWF IS FLATTER IN THE UPPER
LEVELS INITIALLY LENDING TO A FASTER MOVING WAVE WITH THE PHASING
ENERGY ALOFT NOT TAKING PLACE UNTIL AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES. THE
INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE YET TO ORGANIZE INTO A
CONSENSUS SURFACE LOW TRACK AT THIS POINT...SHOWCASING THE
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JETS PHASING.

AT THIS POINT...THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN A FAIRLY IDEAL LOCATION
FOR SNOW TO BE A PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
AS MENTIONED ON TUESDAY MORNING HOWEVER...THE OVERALL HANDLING OF
LOW LEVEL WARM INTRUSIONS THIS WINTER BY MODELS HAVE BEEN
PROBLEMATIC AND TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE DOES NOTHING TO QUELL THAT
CONCERN AT THIS TIME. WITH THIS STORM STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT...IT REMAINS
PREMATURE TO SPECULATE ON DETAILS UNTIL A GREATER MODEL CONSENSUS
CAN BE ACHIEVED.

THE MAIN TAKEAWAY AT THIS EARLY STAGE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING IN A WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WILL CARRY MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SHOULD SNOW END UP AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP
TYPE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. STAY
TUNED.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR COLDEST TEMPS IN ABOUT
3 WEEKS WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN SOME
LOCATIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COULD SEE LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW
ZERO IN SPOTS TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 281800Z.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO BECOME 140-160 DEGREES AT
7-10 KTS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 280750
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
250 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW
CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED AS GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE. DID MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS FOR LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS
BUT OTHERWISE GRIDS LOOK GOOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL TAKE ON AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS A STRONG SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
WORK ITS WAY UP THE EAST COAST.

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS
SCATTER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE
IN THE LOW 20S. AS A RESULT...TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST. NAM/GFS/EURO ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH FIRST
WAVE OF ENERGY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
AROUND THU 09Z. ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY STARTS STRENGTHENING AFTER
THU 12Z...MAKING THE THU 12-18Z TIME FRAME THE BEST FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THAT TIME THOUGH...SO WILL GO WITH AN ALL RAIN FORECAST.
COOLER AIR WILL START FILTERING IN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND THU 21Z. BY THE TIME THE COLDEST
AIR IS IN PLACE AND ALL PRECIPITATION IS TRANSITIONED TO
SNOW...MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION.

SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDWEST.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND DUE TO THE GOOD
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...THEN DROPPING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON THE GROWING POTENTIAL
FOR A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME IN
GENERALLY WITH A MORE PHASED LOOK TO THE UPPER JET STRUCTURES
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE TRACKING THROUGH
THE REGION.

AFTER A DRY DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...FOCUS WILL TURN TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. VARIATIONS ARE PRESENT BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS WHICH
IS TO BE EXPECTED. THE GGEM AND OP GFS ARE PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE
IN PHASING THE UPPER ENERGY OVER THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY...
CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCING A DEEPENING LOW GOING SUB-1000MB SUNDAY
NIGHT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. ECMWF IS FLATTER IN THE UPPER
LEVELS INITIALLY LENDING TO A FASTER MOVING WAVE WITH THE PHASING
ENERGY ALOFT NOT TAKING PLACE UNTIL AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES. THE
INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE YET TO ORGANIZE INTO A
CONSENSUS SURFACE LOW TRACK AT THIS POINT...SHOWCASING THE
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JETS PHASING.

AT THIS POINT...THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN A FAIRLY IDEAL LOCATION
FOR SNOW TO BE A PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
AS MENTIONED ON TUESDAY MORNING HOWEVER...THE OVERALL HANDLING OF
LOW LEVEL WARM INTRUSIONS THIS WINTER BY MODELS HAVE BEEN
PROBLEMATIC AND TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE DOES NOTHING TO QUELL THAT
CONCERN AT THIS TIME. WITH THIS STORM STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT...IT REMAINS
PREMATURE TO SPECULATE ON DETAILS UNTIL A GREATER MODEL CONSENSUS
CAN BE ACHIEVED.

THE MAIN TAKEAWAY AT THIS EARLY STAGE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING IN A WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WILL CARRY MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SHOULD SNOW END UP AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP
TYPE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. STAY
TUNED.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR COLDEST TEMPS IN ABOUT
3 WEEKS WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN SOME
LOCATIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COULD SEE LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW
ZERO IN SPOTS TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 281800Z.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO BECOME 140-160 DEGREES AT
7-10 KTS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 280439
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1137 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW
CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED AS GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE. DID MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS FOR LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS
BUT OTHERWISE GRIDS LOOK GOOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL TAKE ON AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS A STRONG SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
WORK ITS WAY UP THE EAST COAST.

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS
SCATTER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE
IN THE LOW 20S. AS A RESULT...TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST. NAM/GFS/EURO ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH FIRST
WAVE OF ENERGY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
AROUND THU 09Z. ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY STARTS STRENGTHENING AFTER
THU 12Z...MAKING THE THU 12-18Z TIME FRAME THE BEST FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THAT TIME THOUGH...SO WILL GO WITH AN ALL RAIN FORECAST.
COOLER AIR WILL START FILTERING IN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND THU 21Z. BY THE TIME THE COLDEST
AIR IS IN PLACE AND ALL PRECIPITATION IS TRANSITIONED TO
SNOW...MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION.

SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDWEST.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND DUE TO THE GOOD
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...THEN DROPPING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WILL ENSURE A COLD
START TO THE LONG TERM.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS OHIO FRIDAY
NIGHT.  THEN MODELS SWING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY.
BOTH THE CANADIAN AND NEW EUROPEAN MODEL TRACK A SURFACE LOW ACROSS
KENTUCKY...WHILE THE GFS TAKES A WEAKER SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FROM ALL THE MODELS INDICATE
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH...WHILE MOSTLY SNOW
FALLS ELSEWHERE.  THE NEW EUROPEAN IS THE WETTEST AS IT FORECASTS
OVER A HALF A FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS SUNDAY.
ALL OF THIS SNOW WILL MOVE OUT BY MONDAY.  TUESDAY WILL BE
DRY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

UNDERCUT MOS TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THERE WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ALSO CUT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CENTRAL AND NORTH SUNDAY ON.  THE
MAIN REASON IS THAT ALL MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE GFS TRACK THE SURFACE
LOW TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY AND THE EUROPEAN BRINGS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AS COLD AS -18 INTO OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SNOW COVER IN THIS REGION AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 281800Z.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO BECOME 140-160 DEGREES AT
7-10 KTS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 280439
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1137 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW
CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED AS GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE. DID MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS FOR LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS
BUT OTHERWISE GRIDS LOOK GOOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL TAKE ON AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS A STRONG SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
WORK ITS WAY UP THE EAST COAST.

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS
SCATTER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE
IN THE LOW 20S. AS A RESULT...TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST. NAM/GFS/EURO ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH FIRST
WAVE OF ENERGY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
AROUND THU 09Z. ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY STARTS STRENGTHENING AFTER
THU 12Z...MAKING THE THU 12-18Z TIME FRAME THE BEST FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THAT TIME THOUGH...SO WILL GO WITH AN ALL RAIN FORECAST.
COOLER AIR WILL START FILTERING IN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND THU 21Z. BY THE TIME THE COLDEST
AIR IS IN PLACE AND ALL PRECIPITATION IS TRANSITIONED TO
SNOW...MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION.

SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDWEST.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND DUE TO THE GOOD
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...THEN DROPPING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WILL ENSURE A COLD
START TO THE LONG TERM.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS OHIO FRIDAY
NIGHT.  THEN MODELS SWING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY.
BOTH THE CANADIAN AND NEW EUROPEAN MODEL TRACK A SURFACE LOW ACROSS
KENTUCKY...WHILE THE GFS TAKES A WEAKER SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FROM ALL THE MODELS INDICATE
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH...WHILE MOSTLY SNOW
FALLS ELSEWHERE.  THE NEW EUROPEAN IS THE WETTEST AS IT FORECASTS
OVER A HALF A FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS SUNDAY.
ALL OF THIS SNOW WILL MOVE OUT BY MONDAY.  TUESDAY WILL BE
DRY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

UNDERCUT MOS TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THERE WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ALSO CUT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CENTRAL AND NORTH SUNDAY ON.  THE
MAIN REASON IS THAT ALL MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE GFS TRACK THE SURFACE
LOW TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY AND THE EUROPEAN BRINGS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AS COLD AS -18 INTO OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SNOW COVER IN THIS REGION AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 281800Z.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO BECOME 140-160 DEGREES AT
7-10 KTS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 280309
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1009 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW
CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE SOUTHERN HALF.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED AS GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE. DID MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS FOR LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS
BUT OTHERWISE GRIDS LOOK GOOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL TAKE ON AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS A STRONG SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
WORK ITS WAY UP THE EAST COAST.

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS
SCATTER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE
IN THE LOW 20S. AS A RESULT...TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST. NAM/GFS/EURO ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH FIRST
WAVE OF ENERGY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
AROUND THU 09Z. ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY STARTS STRENGTHENING AFTER
THU 12Z...MAKING THE THU 12-18Z TIME FRAME THE BEST FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THAT TIME THOUGH...SO WILL GO WITH AN ALL RAIN FORECAST.
COOLER AIR WILL START FILTERING IN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND THU 21Z. BY THE TIME THE COLDEST
AIR IS IN PLACE AND ALL PRECIPITATION IS TRANSITIONED TO
SNOW...MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION.

SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDWEST.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND DUE TO THE GOOD
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...THEN DROPPING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WILL ENSURE A COLD
START TO THE LONG TERM.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS OHIO FRIDAY
NIGHT.  THEN MODELS SWING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY.
BOTH THE CANADIAN AND NEW EUROPEAN MODEL TRACK A SURFACE LOW ACROSS
KENTUCKY...WHILE THE GFS TAKES A WEAKER SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FROM ALL THE MODELS INDICATE
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH...WHILE MOSTLY SNOW
FALLS ELSEWHERE.  THE NEW EUROPEAN IS THE WETTEST AS IT FORECASTS
OVER A HALF A FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS SUNDAY.
ALL OF THIS SNOW WILL MOVE OUT BY MONDAY.  TUESDAY WILL BE
DRY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

UNDERCUT MOS TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THERE WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ALSO CUT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CENTRAL AND NORTH SUNDAY ON.  THE
MAIN REASON IS THAT ALL MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE GFS TRACK THE SURFACE
LOW TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY AND THE EUROPEAN BRINGS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AS COLD AS -18 INTO OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SNOW COVER IN THIS REGION AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 922 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES THE BACK EDGE OF THE MVFR CEILINGS AROUND
015 PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTH. LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF
KHUF/KBMG BY ISSUANCE TIME.

STILL SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE KHUF/KBMG AREAS...WHICH
IS CAUSING SOME CONCERN FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG TO
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL OFF IN THESE AREAS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
AND MONITOR THE TRENDS AFTER DARK.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 6 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 280309
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1009 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW
CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE SOUTHERN HALF.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED AS GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE. DID MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS FOR LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS
BUT OTHERWISE GRIDS LOOK GOOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL TAKE ON AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS A STRONG SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
WORK ITS WAY UP THE EAST COAST.

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS
SCATTER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE
IN THE LOW 20S. AS A RESULT...TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST. NAM/GFS/EURO ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH FIRST
WAVE OF ENERGY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
AROUND THU 09Z. ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY STARTS STRENGTHENING AFTER
THU 12Z...MAKING THE THU 12-18Z TIME FRAME THE BEST FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THAT TIME THOUGH...SO WILL GO WITH AN ALL RAIN FORECAST.
COOLER AIR WILL START FILTERING IN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND THU 21Z. BY THE TIME THE COLDEST
AIR IS IN PLACE AND ALL PRECIPITATION IS TRANSITIONED TO
SNOW...MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION.

SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDWEST.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND DUE TO THE GOOD
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...THEN DROPPING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WILL ENSURE A COLD
START TO THE LONG TERM.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS OHIO FRIDAY
NIGHT.  THEN MODELS SWING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY.
BOTH THE CANADIAN AND NEW EUROPEAN MODEL TRACK A SURFACE LOW ACROSS
KENTUCKY...WHILE THE GFS TAKES A WEAKER SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FROM ALL THE MODELS INDICATE
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH...WHILE MOSTLY SNOW
FALLS ELSEWHERE.  THE NEW EUROPEAN IS THE WETTEST AS IT FORECASTS
OVER A HALF A FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS SUNDAY.
ALL OF THIS SNOW WILL MOVE OUT BY MONDAY.  TUESDAY WILL BE
DRY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

UNDERCUT MOS TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THERE WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ALSO CUT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CENTRAL AND NORTH SUNDAY ON.  THE
MAIN REASON IS THAT ALL MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE GFS TRACK THE SURFACE
LOW TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY AND THE EUROPEAN BRINGS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AS COLD AS -18 INTO OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SNOW COVER IN THIS REGION AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 922 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES THE BACK EDGE OF THE MVFR CEILINGS AROUND
015 PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTH. LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF
KHUF/KBMG BY ISSUANCE TIME.

STILL SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE KHUF/KBMG AREAS...WHICH
IS CAUSING SOME CONCERN FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG TO
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL OFF IN THESE AREAS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
AND MONITOR THE TRENDS AFTER DARK.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 6 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 280309
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1009 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW
CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE SOUTHERN HALF.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED AS GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE. DID MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS FOR LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS
BUT OTHERWISE GRIDS LOOK GOOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL TAKE ON AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS A STRONG SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
WORK ITS WAY UP THE EAST COAST.

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS
SCATTER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE
IN THE LOW 20S. AS A RESULT...TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST. NAM/GFS/EURO ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH FIRST
WAVE OF ENERGY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
AROUND THU 09Z. ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY STARTS STRENGTHENING AFTER
THU 12Z...MAKING THE THU 12-18Z TIME FRAME THE BEST FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THAT TIME THOUGH...SO WILL GO WITH AN ALL RAIN FORECAST.
COOLER AIR WILL START FILTERING IN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND THU 21Z. BY THE TIME THE COLDEST
AIR IS IN PLACE AND ALL PRECIPITATION IS TRANSITIONED TO
SNOW...MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION.

SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDWEST.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND DUE TO THE GOOD
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...THEN DROPPING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WILL ENSURE A COLD
START TO THE LONG TERM.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS OHIO FRIDAY
NIGHT.  THEN MODELS SWING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY.
BOTH THE CANADIAN AND NEW EUROPEAN MODEL TRACK A SURFACE LOW ACROSS
KENTUCKY...WHILE THE GFS TAKES A WEAKER SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FROM ALL THE MODELS INDICATE
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH...WHILE MOSTLY SNOW
FALLS ELSEWHERE.  THE NEW EUROPEAN IS THE WETTEST AS IT FORECASTS
OVER A HALF A FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS SUNDAY.
ALL OF THIS SNOW WILL MOVE OUT BY MONDAY.  TUESDAY WILL BE
DRY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

UNDERCUT MOS TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THERE WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ALSO CUT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CENTRAL AND NORTH SUNDAY ON.  THE
MAIN REASON IS THAT ALL MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE GFS TRACK THE SURFACE
LOW TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY AND THE EUROPEAN BRINGS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AS COLD AS -18 INTO OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SNOW COVER IN THIS REGION AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 922 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES THE BACK EDGE OF THE MVFR CEILINGS AROUND
015 PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTH. LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF
KHUF/KBMG BY ISSUANCE TIME.

STILL SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE KHUF/KBMG AREAS...WHICH
IS CAUSING SOME CONCERN FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG TO
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL OFF IN THESE AREAS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
AND MONITOR THE TRENDS AFTER DARK.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 6 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 280309
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1009 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW
CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE SOUTHERN HALF.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED AS GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE. DID MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS FOR LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS
BUT OTHERWISE GRIDS LOOK GOOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL TAKE ON AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS A STRONG SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
WORK ITS WAY UP THE EAST COAST.

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS
SCATTER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE
IN THE LOW 20S. AS A RESULT...TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST. NAM/GFS/EURO ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH FIRST
WAVE OF ENERGY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
AROUND THU 09Z. ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY STARTS STRENGTHENING AFTER
THU 12Z...MAKING THE THU 12-18Z TIME FRAME THE BEST FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THAT TIME THOUGH...SO WILL GO WITH AN ALL RAIN FORECAST.
COOLER AIR WILL START FILTERING IN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND THU 21Z. BY THE TIME THE COLDEST
AIR IS IN PLACE AND ALL PRECIPITATION IS TRANSITIONED TO
SNOW...MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION.

SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDWEST.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND DUE TO THE GOOD
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...THEN DROPPING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WILL ENSURE A COLD
START TO THE LONG TERM.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS OHIO FRIDAY
NIGHT.  THEN MODELS SWING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY.
BOTH THE CANADIAN AND NEW EUROPEAN MODEL TRACK A SURFACE LOW ACROSS
KENTUCKY...WHILE THE GFS TAKES A WEAKER SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FROM ALL THE MODELS INDICATE
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH...WHILE MOSTLY SNOW
FALLS ELSEWHERE.  THE NEW EUROPEAN IS THE WETTEST AS IT FORECASTS
OVER A HALF A FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS SUNDAY.
ALL OF THIS SNOW WILL MOVE OUT BY MONDAY.  TUESDAY WILL BE
DRY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

UNDERCUT MOS TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THERE WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ALSO CUT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CENTRAL AND NORTH SUNDAY ON.  THE
MAIN REASON IS THAT ALL MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE GFS TRACK THE SURFACE
LOW TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY AND THE EUROPEAN BRINGS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AS COLD AS -18 INTO OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SNOW COVER IN THIS REGION AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 922 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES THE BACK EDGE OF THE MVFR CEILINGS AROUND
015 PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTH. LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF
KHUF/KBMG BY ISSUANCE TIME.

STILL SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE KHUF/KBMG AREAS...WHICH
IS CAUSING SOME CONCERN FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG TO
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL OFF IN THESE AREAS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
AND MONITOR THE TRENDS AFTER DARK.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 6 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 280223
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
922 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW
CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE SOUTHERN HALF.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL TAKE ON AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS A STRONG SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
WORK ITS WAY UP THE EAST COAST.

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS
SCATTER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE
IN THE LOW 20S. AS A RESULT...TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST. NAM/GFS/EURO ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH FIRST
WAVE OF ENERGY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
AROUND THU 09Z. ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY STARTS STRENGTHENING AFTER
THU 12Z...MAKING THE THU 12-18Z TIME FRAME THE BEST FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THAT TIME THOUGH...SO WILL GO WITH AN ALL RAIN FORECAST.
COOLER AIR WILL START FILTERING IN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND THU 21Z. BY THE TIME THE COLDEST
AIR IS IN PLACE AND ALL PRECIPITATION IS TRANSITIONED TO
SNOW...MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION.

SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDWEST.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND DUE TO THE GOOD
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...THEN DROPPING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WILL ENSURE A COLD
START TO THE LONG TERM.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS OHIO FRIDAY
NIGHT.  THEN MODELS SWING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY.
BOTH THE CANADIAN AND NEW EUROPEAN MODEL TRACK A SURFACE LOW ACROSS
KENTUCKY...WHILE THE GFS TAKES A WEAKER SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FROM ALL THE MODELS INDICATE
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH...WHILE MOSTLY SNOW
FALLS ELSEWHERE.  THE NEW EUROPEAN IS THE WETTEST AS IT FORECASTS
OVER A HALF A FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS SUNDAY.
ALL OF THIS SNOW WILL MOVE OUT BY MONDAY.  TUESDAY WILL BE
DRY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

UNDERCUT MOS TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THERE WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ALSO CUT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CENTRAL AND NORTH SUNDAY ON.  THE
MAIN REASON IS THAT ALL MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE GFS TRACK THE SURFACE
LOW TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY AND THE EUROPEAN BRINGS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AS COLD AS -18 INTO OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SNOW COVER IN THIS REGION AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 922 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES THE BACK EDGE OF THE MVFR CEILINGS AROUND
015 PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTH. LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF
KHUF/KBMG BY ISSUANCE TIME.

STILL SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE KHUF/KBMG AREAS...WHICH
IS CAUSING SOME CONCERN FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG TO
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL OFF IN THESE AREAS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
AND MONITOR THE TRENDS AFTER DARK.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 6 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 280223
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
922 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW
CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE SOUTHERN HALF.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL TAKE ON AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS A STRONG SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
WORK ITS WAY UP THE EAST COAST.

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS
SCATTER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE
IN THE LOW 20S. AS A RESULT...TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST. NAM/GFS/EURO ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH FIRST
WAVE OF ENERGY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
AROUND THU 09Z. ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY STARTS STRENGTHENING AFTER
THU 12Z...MAKING THE THU 12-18Z TIME FRAME THE BEST FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THAT TIME THOUGH...SO WILL GO WITH AN ALL RAIN FORECAST.
COOLER AIR WILL START FILTERING IN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND THU 21Z. BY THE TIME THE COLDEST
AIR IS IN PLACE AND ALL PRECIPITATION IS TRANSITIONED TO
SNOW...MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION.

SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDWEST.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND DUE TO THE GOOD
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...THEN DROPPING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WILL ENSURE A COLD
START TO THE LONG TERM.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS OHIO FRIDAY
NIGHT.  THEN MODELS SWING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY.
BOTH THE CANADIAN AND NEW EUROPEAN MODEL TRACK A SURFACE LOW ACROSS
KENTUCKY...WHILE THE GFS TAKES A WEAKER SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FROM ALL THE MODELS INDICATE
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH...WHILE MOSTLY SNOW
FALLS ELSEWHERE.  THE NEW EUROPEAN IS THE WETTEST AS IT FORECASTS
OVER A HALF A FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS SUNDAY.
ALL OF THIS SNOW WILL MOVE OUT BY MONDAY.  TUESDAY WILL BE
DRY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

UNDERCUT MOS TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THERE WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ALSO CUT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CENTRAL AND NORTH SUNDAY ON.  THE
MAIN REASON IS THAT ALL MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE GFS TRACK THE SURFACE
LOW TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY AND THE EUROPEAN BRINGS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AS COLD AS -18 INTO OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SNOW COVER IN THIS REGION AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 922 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES THE BACK EDGE OF THE MVFR CEILINGS AROUND
015 PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTH. LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF
KHUF/KBMG BY ISSUANCE TIME.

STILL SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE KHUF/KBMG AREAS...WHICH
IS CAUSING SOME CONCERN FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG TO
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL OFF IN THESE AREAS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
AND MONITOR THE TRENDS AFTER DARK.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 6 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 280223
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
922 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW
CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE SOUTHERN HALF.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL TAKE ON AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS A STRONG SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
WORK ITS WAY UP THE EAST COAST.

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS
SCATTER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE
IN THE LOW 20S. AS A RESULT...TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST. NAM/GFS/EURO ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH FIRST
WAVE OF ENERGY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
AROUND THU 09Z. ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY STARTS STRENGTHENING AFTER
THU 12Z...MAKING THE THU 12-18Z TIME FRAME THE BEST FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THAT TIME THOUGH...SO WILL GO WITH AN ALL RAIN FORECAST.
COOLER AIR WILL START FILTERING IN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND THU 21Z. BY THE TIME THE COLDEST
AIR IS IN PLACE AND ALL PRECIPITATION IS TRANSITIONED TO
SNOW...MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION.

SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDWEST.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND DUE TO THE GOOD
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...THEN DROPPING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WILL ENSURE A COLD
START TO THE LONG TERM.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS OHIO FRIDAY
NIGHT.  THEN MODELS SWING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY.
BOTH THE CANADIAN AND NEW EUROPEAN MODEL TRACK A SURFACE LOW ACROSS
KENTUCKY...WHILE THE GFS TAKES A WEAKER SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FROM ALL THE MODELS INDICATE
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH...WHILE MOSTLY SNOW
FALLS ELSEWHERE.  THE NEW EUROPEAN IS THE WETTEST AS IT FORECASTS
OVER A HALF A FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS SUNDAY.
ALL OF THIS SNOW WILL MOVE OUT BY MONDAY.  TUESDAY WILL BE
DRY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

UNDERCUT MOS TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THERE WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ALSO CUT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CENTRAL AND NORTH SUNDAY ON.  THE
MAIN REASON IS THAT ALL MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE GFS TRACK THE SURFACE
LOW TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY AND THE EUROPEAN BRINGS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AS COLD AS -18 INTO OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SNOW COVER IN THIS REGION AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 922 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES THE BACK EDGE OF THE MVFR CEILINGS AROUND
015 PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTH. LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF
KHUF/KBMG BY ISSUANCE TIME.

STILL SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE KHUF/KBMG AREAS...WHICH
IS CAUSING SOME CONCERN FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG TO
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL OFF IN THESE AREAS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
AND MONITOR THE TRENDS AFTER DARK.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 6 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 272234
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
532 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW
CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE SOUTHERN HALF.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL TAKE ON AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS A STRONG SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
WORK ITS WAY UP THE EAST COAST.

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS
SCATTER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE
IN THE LOW 20S. AS A RESULT...TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST. NAM/GFS/EURO ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH FIRST
WAVE OF ENERGY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
AROUND THU 09Z. ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY STARTS STRENGTHENING AFTER
THU 12Z...MAKING THE THU 12-18Z TIME FRAME THE BEST FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THAT TIME THOUGH...SO WILL GO WITH AN ALL RAIN FORECAST.
COOLER AIR WILL START FILTERING IN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND THU 21Z. BY THE TIME THE COLDEST
AIR IS IN PLACE AND ALL PRECIPITATION IS TRANSITIONED TO
SNOW...MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION.

SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDWEST.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND DUE TO THE GOOD
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...THEN DROPPING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WILL ENSURE A COLD
START TO THE LONG TERM.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS OHIO FRIDAY
NIGHT.  THEN MODELS SWING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY.
BOTH THE CANADIAN AND NEW EUROPEAN MODEL TRACK A SURFACE LOW ACROSS
KENTUCKY...WHILE THE GFS TAKES A WEAKER SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FROM ALL THE MODELS INDICATE
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH...WHILE MOSTLY SNOW
FALLS ELSEWHERE.  THE NEW EUROPEAN IS THE WETTEST AS IT FORECASTS
OVER A HALF A FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS SUNDAY.
ALL OF THIS SNOW WILL MOVE OUT BY MONDAY.  TUESDAY WILL BE
DRY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

UNDERCUT MOS TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THERE WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ALSO CUT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CENTRAL AND NORTH SUNDAY ON.  THE
MAIN REASON IS THAT ALL MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE GFS TRACK THE SURFACE
LOW TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY AND THE EUROPEAN BRINGS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AS COLD AS -18 INTO OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SNOW COVER IN THIS REGION AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 532 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES THE BACK EDGE OF THE MVFR CEILINGS AROUND
015 PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTH. LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF
KHUF/KBMG BY ISSUANCE TIME.

STILL SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE KHUF/KBMG AREAS...WHICH
IS CAUSING SOME CONCERN FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG TO
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL OFF IN THESE AREAS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
AND MONITOR THE TRENDS AFTER DARK.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 6 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 272234
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
532 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW
CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE SOUTHERN HALF.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL TAKE ON AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS A STRONG SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
WORK ITS WAY UP THE EAST COAST.

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS
SCATTER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE
IN THE LOW 20S. AS A RESULT...TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST. NAM/GFS/EURO ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH FIRST
WAVE OF ENERGY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
AROUND THU 09Z. ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY STARTS STRENGTHENING AFTER
THU 12Z...MAKING THE THU 12-18Z TIME FRAME THE BEST FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THAT TIME THOUGH...SO WILL GO WITH AN ALL RAIN FORECAST.
COOLER AIR WILL START FILTERING IN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND THU 21Z. BY THE TIME THE COLDEST
AIR IS IN PLACE AND ALL PRECIPITATION IS TRANSITIONED TO
SNOW...MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION.

SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDWEST.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND DUE TO THE GOOD
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...THEN DROPPING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WILL ENSURE A COLD
START TO THE LONG TERM.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS OHIO FRIDAY
NIGHT.  THEN MODELS SWING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY.
BOTH THE CANADIAN AND NEW EUROPEAN MODEL TRACK A SURFACE LOW ACROSS
KENTUCKY...WHILE THE GFS TAKES A WEAKER SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FROM ALL THE MODELS INDICATE
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH...WHILE MOSTLY SNOW
FALLS ELSEWHERE.  THE NEW EUROPEAN IS THE WETTEST AS IT FORECASTS
OVER A HALF A FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS SUNDAY.
ALL OF THIS SNOW WILL MOVE OUT BY MONDAY.  TUESDAY WILL BE
DRY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

UNDERCUT MOS TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THERE WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ALSO CUT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CENTRAL AND NORTH SUNDAY ON.  THE
MAIN REASON IS THAT ALL MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE GFS TRACK THE SURFACE
LOW TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY AND THE EUROPEAN BRINGS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AS COLD AS -18 INTO OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SNOW COVER IN THIS REGION AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 532 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES THE BACK EDGE OF THE MVFR CEILINGS AROUND
015 PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTH. LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF
KHUF/KBMG BY ISSUANCE TIME.

STILL SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE KHUF/KBMG AREAS...WHICH
IS CAUSING SOME CONCERN FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG TO
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL OFF IN THESE AREAS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
AND MONITOR THE TRENDS AFTER DARK.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 6 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 272046
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
346 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW
CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE SOUTHERN HALF.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL TAKE ON AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS A STRONG SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
WORK ITS WAY UP THE EAST COAST.

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS
SCATTER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE
IN THE LOW 20S. AS A RESULT...TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST. NAM/GFS/EURO ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH FIRST
WAVE OF ENERGY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
AROUND THU 09Z. ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY STARTS STRENGTHENING AFTER
THU 12Z...MAKING THE THU 12-18Z TIME FRAME THE BEST FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THAT TIME THOUGH...SO WILL GO WITH AN ALL RAIN FORECAST.
COOLER AIR WILL START FILTERING IN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND THU 21Z. BY THE TIME THE COLDEST
AIR IS IN PLACE AND ALL PRECIPITATION IS TRANSITIONED TO
SNOW...MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION.

SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDWEST.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND DUE TO THE GOOD
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...THEN DROPPING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WILL ENSURE A COLD
START TO THE LONG TERM.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS OHIO FRIDAY
NIGHT.  THEN MODELS SWING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY.
BOTH THE CANADIAN AND NEW EUROPEAN MODEL TRACK A SURFACE LOW ACROSS
KENTUCKY...WHILE THE GFS TAKES A WEAKER SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FROM ALL THE MODELS INDICATE
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH...WHILE MOSTLY SNOW
FALLS ELSEWHERE.  THE NEW EUROPEAN IS THE WETTEST AS IT FORECASTS
OVER A HALF A FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS SUNDAY.
ALL OF THIS SNOW WILL MOVE OUT BY MONDAY.  TUESDAY WILL BE
DRY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

UNDERCUT MOS TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THERE WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ALSO CUT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CENTRAL AND NORTH SUNDAY ON.  THE
MAIN REASON IS THAT ALL MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE GFS TRACK THE SURFACE
LOW TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY AND THE EUROPEAN BRINGS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AS COLD AS -18 INTO OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SNOW COVER IN THIS REGION AS WELL.


&&


.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THE FIRST FEW HOURS...THEN VFR REST OF THE
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE STRONG
LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WAS PRODUCING
A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
WEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.  THIS WILL CAUSE IMPROVING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WITH MOST CLOUDS CLEARING BY THIS EVENING.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE QUIET...ALTHOUGH MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE SOME AREAS AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.  MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND SOUTHEAST UP TO 8 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 272046
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
346 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW
CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE SOUTHERN HALF.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL TAKE ON AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS A STRONG SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
WORK ITS WAY UP THE EAST COAST.

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS
SCATTER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE
IN THE LOW 20S. AS A RESULT...TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST. NAM/GFS/EURO ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH FIRST
WAVE OF ENERGY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
AROUND THU 09Z. ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY STARTS STRENGTHENING AFTER
THU 12Z...MAKING THE THU 12-18Z TIME FRAME THE BEST FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THAT TIME THOUGH...SO WILL GO WITH AN ALL RAIN FORECAST.
COOLER AIR WILL START FILTERING IN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND THU 21Z. BY THE TIME THE COLDEST
AIR IS IN PLACE AND ALL PRECIPITATION IS TRANSITIONED TO
SNOW...MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION.

SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDWEST.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND DUE TO THE GOOD
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...THEN DROPPING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WILL ENSURE A COLD
START TO THE LONG TERM.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS OHIO FRIDAY
NIGHT.  THEN MODELS SWING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY.
BOTH THE CANADIAN AND NEW EUROPEAN MODEL TRACK A SURFACE LOW ACROSS
KENTUCKY...WHILE THE GFS TAKES A WEAKER SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FROM ALL THE MODELS INDICATE
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH...WHILE MOSTLY SNOW
FALLS ELSEWHERE.  THE NEW EUROPEAN IS THE WETTEST AS IT FORECASTS
OVER A HALF A FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS SUNDAY.
ALL OF THIS SNOW WILL MOVE OUT BY MONDAY.  TUESDAY WILL BE
DRY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

UNDERCUT MOS TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THERE WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ALSO CUT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CENTRAL AND NORTH SUNDAY ON.  THE
MAIN REASON IS THAT ALL MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE GFS TRACK THE SURFACE
LOW TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY AND THE EUROPEAN BRINGS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AS COLD AS -18 INTO OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SNOW COVER IN THIS REGION AS WELL.


&&


.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THE FIRST FEW HOURS...THEN VFR REST OF THE
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE STRONG
LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WAS PRODUCING
A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
WEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.  THIS WILL CAUSE IMPROVING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WITH MOST CLOUDS CLEARING BY THIS EVENING.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE QUIET...ALTHOUGH MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE SOME AREAS AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.  MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND SOUTHEAST UP TO 8 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 272028
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
328 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FOR MUCH OF THE TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE...WITH THE COLDEST AIR MOVING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 944 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

UPDATE...
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OFF IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. CURRENT TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. LOOKS LIKE SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT WARM...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER EXISTS. TRIMMED IT BACK A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH TONIGHT THAT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS WENT
CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN TO
WARM TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF MAV MOS.

ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN DURING THE
EVENING...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH. THESE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AFTER REACHING LOWS DURING
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO
ONLY WENT POPS AFTER 06Z. MOISTURE STILL IS NOT GREAT SO ONLY WENT
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARM SO PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON LOW LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH TO JUST GO RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

CONTINUED CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BUT
MOISTURE STILL NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO KEPT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW LATE AFTERNOON.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THURSDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GETTING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE
A COLD START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY MAINTAINING DRY CHILLY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH DAYS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD COMES DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A STRENGTHENING SURFACE WAVE TRACKS FROM
THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY MORNING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS WAVERED WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS RANGING FROM A SUPPRESSED SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN STATES TO A MORE PHASED SOLUTION BRINGING A GREATER
IMPACT NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 00Z GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS
TRENDED BACK TOWARDS THE MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND A BROAD AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SPREADING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

WITH COLD AIR LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE TRACK TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...PRECIP WOULD LIKELY FALL AS SNOW
AS IT STANDS NOW WITH POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP ON
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THAT CAN TAKE PLACE. STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND LIKELY TO SEE
ADDITIONAL CHANGES AS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND. ONE CAVEAT TO KEEP IN
MIND...MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS UNDERDONE LOW LEVEL WARM
INTRUSIONS AND CAUSED PRECIP TYPE CHALLENGES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SURFACE WAVES ALL WINTER LONG. NOT SAYING THIS HAPPENS
HERE IF THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS HOLDS. IT IS JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS MODELS HONE
IN ON A CONSENSUS SOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS. SHOULD THINGS COME
TOGETHER FOR A PREDOMINANT SNOW EVENT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ONCE THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES AND DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY...A FRESH BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS
BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/21Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED AT IND. DID LOWER CONDITIONS AT HUF
SLIGHTLY BASED ON OBS TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THE FIRST FEW HOURS...THEN VFR REST OF THE
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE STRONG
LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WAS PRODUCING
A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
WEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.  THIS WILL CAUSE IMPROVING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WITH MOST CLOUDS CLEARING BY THIS EVENING.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE QUIET...ALTHOUGH MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE SOME AREAS AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.  MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND SOUTHEAST UP TO 8 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...JH/NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 272028
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
328 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FOR MUCH OF THE TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE...WITH THE COLDEST AIR MOVING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 944 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

UPDATE...
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OFF IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. CURRENT TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. LOOKS LIKE SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT WARM...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER EXISTS. TRIMMED IT BACK A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH TONIGHT THAT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS WENT
CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN TO
WARM TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF MAV MOS.

ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN DURING THE
EVENING...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH. THESE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AFTER REACHING LOWS DURING
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO
ONLY WENT POPS AFTER 06Z. MOISTURE STILL IS NOT GREAT SO ONLY WENT
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARM SO PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON LOW LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH TO JUST GO RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

CONTINUED CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BUT
MOISTURE STILL NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO KEPT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW LATE AFTERNOON.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THURSDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GETTING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE
A COLD START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY MAINTAINING DRY CHILLY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH DAYS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD COMES DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A STRENGTHENING SURFACE WAVE TRACKS FROM
THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY MORNING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS WAVERED WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS RANGING FROM A SUPPRESSED SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN STATES TO A MORE PHASED SOLUTION BRINGING A GREATER
IMPACT NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 00Z GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS
TRENDED BACK TOWARDS THE MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND A BROAD AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SPREADING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

WITH COLD AIR LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE TRACK TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...PRECIP WOULD LIKELY FALL AS SNOW
AS IT STANDS NOW WITH POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP ON
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THAT CAN TAKE PLACE. STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND LIKELY TO SEE
ADDITIONAL CHANGES AS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND. ONE CAVEAT TO KEEP IN
MIND...MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS UNDERDONE LOW LEVEL WARM
INTRUSIONS AND CAUSED PRECIP TYPE CHALLENGES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SURFACE WAVES ALL WINTER LONG. NOT SAYING THIS HAPPENS
HERE IF THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS HOLDS. IT IS JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS MODELS HONE
IN ON A CONSENSUS SOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS. SHOULD THINGS COME
TOGETHER FOR A PREDOMINANT SNOW EVENT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ONCE THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES AND DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY...A FRESH BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS
BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/21Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED AT IND. DID LOWER CONDITIONS AT HUF
SLIGHTLY BASED ON OBS TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THE FIRST FEW HOURS...THEN VFR REST OF THE
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE STRONG
LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WAS PRODUCING
A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
WEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.  THIS WILL CAUSE IMPROVING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WITH MOST CLOUDS CLEARING BY THIS EVENING.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE QUIET...ALTHOUGH MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE SOME AREAS AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.  MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND SOUTHEAST UP TO 8 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...JH/NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 271657
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1158 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FOR MUCH OF THE TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE...WITH THE COLDEST AIR MOVING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

UPDATE...
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OFF IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. CURRENT TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. LOOKS LIKE SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT WARM...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER EXISTS. TRIMMED IT BACK A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH TONIGHT THAT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS WENT
CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN TO
WARM TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF MAV MOS.

ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN DURING THE
EVENING...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH. THESE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AFTER REACHING LOWS DURING
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO
ONLY WENT POPS AFTER 06Z. MOISTURE STILL IS NOT GREAT SO ONLY WENT
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARM SO PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON LOW LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH TO JUST GO RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

CONTINUED CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BUT
MOISTURE STILL NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO KEPT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW LATE AFTERNOON.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THURSDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GETTING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE
A COLD START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY MAINTAINING DRY CHILLY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH DAYS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD COMES DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A STRENGTHENING SURFACE WAVE TRACKS FROM
THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY MORNING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS WAVERED WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS RANGING FROM A SUPPRESSED SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN STATES TO A MORE PHASED SOLUTION BRINGING A GREATER
IMPACT NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 00Z GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS
TRENDED BACK TOWARDS THE MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND A BROAD AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SPREADING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

WITH COLD AIR LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE TRACK TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...PRECIP WOULD LIKELY FALL AS SNOW
AS IT STANDS NOW WITH POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP ON
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THAT CAN TAKE PLACE. STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND LIKELY TO SEE
ADDITIONAL CHANGES AS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND. ONE CAVEAT TO KEEP IN
MIND...MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS UNDERDONE LOW LEVEL WARM
INTRUSIONS AND CAUSED PRECIP TYPE CHALLENGES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SURFACE WAVES ALL WINTER LONG. NOT SAYING THIS HAPPENS
HERE IF THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS HOLDS. IT IS JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS MODELS HONE
IN ON A CONSENSUS SOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS. SHOULD THINGS COME
TOGETHER FOR A PREDOMINANT SNOW EVENT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ONCE THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES AND DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY...A FRESH BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS
BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THE FIRST FEW HOURS...THEN VFR REST OF THE
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE STRONG
LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WAS PRODUCING
A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
WEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.  THIS WILL CAUSE IMPROVING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WITH MOST CLOUDS CLEARING BY THIS EVENING.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE QUIET...ALTHOUGH MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE SOME AREAS AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.  MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND SOUTHEAST UP TO 8 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 271657
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1158 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FOR MUCH OF THE TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE...WITH THE COLDEST AIR MOVING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

UPDATE...
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OFF IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. CURRENT TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. LOOKS LIKE SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT WARM...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER EXISTS. TRIMMED IT BACK A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH TONIGHT THAT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS WENT
CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN TO
WARM TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF MAV MOS.

ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN DURING THE
EVENING...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH. THESE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AFTER REACHING LOWS DURING
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO
ONLY WENT POPS AFTER 06Z. MOISTURE STILL IS NOT GREAT SO ONLY WENT
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARM SO PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON LOW LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH TO JUST GO RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

CONTINUED CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BUT
MOISTURE STILL NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO KEPT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW LATE AFTERNOON.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THURSDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GETTING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE
A COLD START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY MAINTAINING DRY CHILLY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH DAYS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD COMES DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A STRENGTHENING SURFACE WAVE TRACKS FROM
THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY MORNING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS WAVERED WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS RANGING FROM A SUPPRESSED SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN STATES TO A MORE PHASED SOLUTION BRINGING A GREATER
IMPACT NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 00Z GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS
TRENDED BACK TOWARDS THE MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND A BROAD AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SPREADING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

WITH COLD AIR LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE TRACK TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...PRECIP WOULD LIKELY FALL AS SNOW
AS IT STANDS NOW WITH POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP ON
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THAT CAN TAKE PLACE. STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND LIKELY TO SEE
ADDITIONAL CHANGES AS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND. ONE CAVEAT TO KEEP IN
MIND...MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS UNDERDONE LOW LEVEL WARM
INTRUSIONS AND CAUSED PRECIP TYPE CHALLENGES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SURFACE WAVES ALL WINTER LONG. NOT SAYING THIS HAPPENS
HERE IF THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS HOLDS. IT IS JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS MODELS HONE
IN ON A CONSENSUS SOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS. SHOULD THINGS COME
TOGETHER FOR A PREDOMINANT SNOW EVENT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ONCE THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES AND DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY...A FRESH BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS
BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THE FIRST FEW HOURS...THEN VFR REST OF THE
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE STRONG
LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WAS PRODUCING
A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
WEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.  THIS WILL CAUSE IMPROVING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WITH MOST CLOUDS CLEARING BY THIS EVENING.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE QUIET...ALTHOUGH MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE SOME AREAS AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.  MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND SOUTHEAST UP TO 8 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 271447
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
947 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FOR MUCH OF THE TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE...WITH THE COLDEST AIR MOVING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

UPDATE...
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OFF IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. CURRENT TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. LOOKS LIKE SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT WARM...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER EXISTS. TRIMMED IT BACK A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH TONIGHT THAT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS WENT
CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN TO
WARM TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF MAV MOS.

ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN DURING THE
EVENING...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH. THESE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AFTER REACHING LOWS DURING
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO
ONLY WENT POPS AFTER 06Z. MOISTURE STILL IS NOT GREAT SO ONLY WENT
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARM SO PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON LOW LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH TO JUST GO RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

CONTINUED CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BUT
MOISTURE STILL NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO KEPT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW LATE AFTERNOON.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THURSDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GETTING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE
A COLD START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY MAINTAINING DRY CHILLY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH DAYS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD COMES DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A STRENGTHENING SURFACE WAVE TRACKS FROM
THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY MORNING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS WAVERED WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS RANGING FROM A SUPPRESSED SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN STATES TO A MORE PHASED SOLUTION BRINGING A GREATER
IMPACT NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 00Z GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS
TRENDED BACK TOWARDS THE MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND A BROAD AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SPREADING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

WITH COLD AIR LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE TRACK TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...PRECIP WOULD LIKELY FALL AS SNOW
AS IT STANDS NOW WITH POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP ON
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THAT CAN TAKE PLACE. STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND LIKELY TO SEE
ADDITIONAL CHANGES AS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND. ONE CAVEAT TO KEEP IN
MIND...MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS UNDERDONE LOW LEVEL WARM
INTRUSIONS AND CAUSED PRECIP TYPE CHALLENGES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SURFACE WAVES ALL WINTER LONG. NOT SAYING THIS HAPPENS
HERE IF THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS HOLDS. IT IS JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS MODELS HONE
IN ON A CONSENSUS SOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS. SHOULD THINGS COME
TOGETHER FOR A PREDOMINANT SNOW EVENT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ONCE THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES AND DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY...A FRESH BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS
BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 928 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEAK UPPER WAVE SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY AT KHUF AND KIND. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP WILL
COME TO AN END BY 12-13Z AS THE WAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST.
LOW CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL TAKE LONGER TO DEPART WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. IFR AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE
PREVALENT THIS MORNING...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENTS IN THE DECK UP TO
1500-2000FT BY MIDDAY.

STRATOCU DECK WILL SCATTER BY LATE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH SKIES CLEARING TONIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT OVER THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE SPILLS OVER THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE. N/NE WINDS AT
5-10KTS TODAY WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
CENTERS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 271447
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
947 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FOR MUCH OF THE TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE...WITH THE COLDEST AIR MOVING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

UPDATE...
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OFF IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. CURRENT TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. LOOKS LIKE SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT WARM...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER EXISTS. TRIMMED IT BACK A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH TONIGHT THAT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS WENT
CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN TO
WARM TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF MAV MOS.

ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN DURING THE
EVENING...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH. THESE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AFTER REACHING LOWS DURING
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO
ONLY WENT POPS AFTER 06Z. MOISTURE STILL IS NOT GREAT SO ONLY WENT
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARM SO PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON LOW LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH TO JUST GO RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

CONTINUED CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BUT
MOISTURE STILL NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO KEPT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW LATE AFTERNOON.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THURSDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GETTING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE
A COLD START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY MAINTAINING DRY CHILLY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH DAYS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD COMES DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A STRENGTHENING SURFACE WAVE TRACKS FROM
THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY MORNING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS WAVERED WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS RANGING FROM A SUPPRESSED SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN STATES TO A MORE PHASED SOLUTION BRINGING A GREATER
IMPACT NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 00Z GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS
TRENDED BACK TOWARDS THE MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND A BROAD AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SPREADING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

WITH COLD AIR LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE TRACK TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...PRECIP WOULD LIKELY FALL AS SNOW
AS IT STANDS NOW WITH POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP ON
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THAT CAN TAKE PLACE. STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND LIKELY TO SEE
ADDITIONAL CHANGES AS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND. ONE CAVEAT TO KEEP IN
MIND...MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS UNDERDONE LOW LEVEL WARM
INTRUSIONS AND CAUSED PRECIP TYPE CHALLENGES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SURFACE WAVES ALL WINTER LONG. NOT SAYING THIS HAPPENS
HERE IF THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS HOLDS. IT IS JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS MODELS HONE
IN ON A CONSENSUS SOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS. SHOULD THINGS COME
TOGETHER FOR A PREDOMINANT SNOW EVENT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ONCE THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES AND DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY...A FRESH BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS
BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 928 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEAK UPPER WAVE SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY AT KHUF AND KIND. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP WILL
COME TO AN END BY 12-13Z AS THE WAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST.
LOW CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL TAKE LONGER TO DEPART WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. IFR AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE
PREVALENT THIS MORNING...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENTS IN THE DECK UP TO
1500-2000FT BY MIDDAY.

STRATOCU DECK WILL SCATTER BY LATE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH SKIES CLEARING TONIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT OVER THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE SPILLS OVER THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE. N/NE WINDS AT
5-10KTS TODAY WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
CENTERS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 271427
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
928 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FOR MUCH OF THE TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE...WITH THE COLDEST AIR MOVING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. REGIONAL RADAR VIEW SHOWS SNOW
EXTENDING NORTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

TREND IS FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO WEAKEN/DIMINISH AS THE LOW WEAKENS
AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. IR SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD TOPS
WARMING...AND SOME OF THE RADAR ECHOES ARE WEAKENING AS WELL.
HOWEVER HERE AT THE OFFICE WE SAW ENOUGH SNOW TO LOWER THE
VISIBILITY BELOW 2SM WITH VERY WEAK ECHOES EARLIER.

GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE WILL ADD MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES TO
ABOUT 14Z. WILL ADJUST AS NECESSARY LATER.

OTHERWISE TODAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN. LOOKS LIKE SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT
WARM...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER EXISTS. TRIMMED IT
BACK A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH TONIGHT THAT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS WENT
CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN TO
WARM TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF MAV MOS.

ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN DURING THE
EVENING...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH. THESE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AFTER REACHING LOWS DURING
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO
ONLY WENT POPS AFTER 06Z. MOISTURE STILL IS NOT GREAT SO ONLY WENT
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARM SO PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON LOW LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH TO JUST GO RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

CONTINUED CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BUT
MOISTURE STILL NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO KEPT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW LATE AFTERNOON.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THURSDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GETTING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE
A COLD START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY MAINTAINING DRY CHILLY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH DAYS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD COMES DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A STRENGTHENING SURFACE WAVE TRACKS FROM
THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY MORNING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS WAVERED WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS RANGING FROM A SUPPRESSED SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN STATES TO A MORE PHASED SOLUTION BRINGING A GREATER
IMPACT NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 00Z GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS
TRENDED BACK TOWARDS THE MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND A BROAD AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SPREADING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

WITH COLD AIR LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE TRACK TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...PRECIP WOULD LIKELY FALL AS SNOW
AS IT STANDS NOW WITH POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP ON
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THAT CAN TAKE PLACE. STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND LIKELY TO SEE
ADDITIONAL CHANGES AS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND. ONE CAVEAT TO KEEP IN
MIND...MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS UNDERDONE LOW LEVEL WARM
INTRUSIONS AND CAUSED PRECIP TYPE CHALLENGES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SURFACE WAVES ALL WINTER LONG. NOT SAYING THIS HAPPENS
HERE IF THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS HOLDS. IT IS JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS MODELS HONE
IN ON A CONSENSUS SOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS. SHOULD THINGS COME
TOGETHER FOR A PREDOMINANT SNOW EVENT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ONCE THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES AND DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY...A FRESH BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS
BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 928 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEAK UPPER WAVE SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY AT KHUF AND KIND. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP WILL
COME TO AN END BY 12-13Z AS THE WAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST.
LOW CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL TAKE LONGER TO DEPART WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. IFR AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE
PREVALENT THIS MORNING...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENTS IN THE DECK UP TO
1500-2000FT BY MIDDAY.

STRATOCU DECK WILL SCATTER BY LATE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH SKIES CLEARING TONIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT OVER THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE SPILLS OVER THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE. N/NE WINDS AT
5-10KTS TODAY WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
CENTERS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 271427
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
928 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FOR MUCH OF THE TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE...WITH THE COLDEST AIR MOVING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. REGIONAL RADAR VIEW SHOWS SNOW
EXTENDING NORTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

TREND IS FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO WEAKEN/DIMINISH AS THE LOW WEAKENS
AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. IR SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD TOPS
WARMING...AND SOME OF THE RADAR ECHOES ARE WEAKENING AS WELL.
HOWEVER HERE AT THE OFFICE WE SAW ENOUGH SNOW TO LOWER THE
VISIBILITY BELOW 2SM WITH VERY WEAK ECHOES EARLIER.

GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE WILL ADD MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES TO
ABOUT 14Z. WILL ADJUST AS NECESSARY LATER.

OTHERWISE TODAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN. LOOKS LIKE SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT
WARM...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER EXISTS. TRIMMED IT
BACK A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH TONIGHT THAT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS WENT
CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN TO
WARM TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF MAV MOS.

ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN DURING THE
EVENING...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH. THESE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AFTER REACHING LOWS DURING
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO
ONLY WENT POPS AFTER 06Z. MOISTURE STILL IS NOT GREAT SO ONLY WENT
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARM SO PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON LOW LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH TO JUST GO RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

CONTINUED CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BUT
MOISTURE STILL NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO KEPT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW LATE AFTERNOON.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THURSDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GETTING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE
A COLD START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY MAINTAINING DRY CHILLY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH DAYS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD COMES DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A STRENGTHENING SURFACE WAVE TRACKS FROM
THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY MORNING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS WAVERED WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS RANGING FROM A SUPPRESSED SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN STATES TO A MORE PHASED SOLUTION BRINGING A GREATER
IMPACT NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 00Z GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS
TRENDED BACK TOWARDS THE MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND A BROAD AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SPREADING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

WITH COLD AIR LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE TRACK TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...PRECIP WOULD LIKELY FALL AS SNOW
AS IT STANDS NOW WITH POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP ON
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THAT CAN TAKE PLACE. STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND LIKELY TO SEE
ADDITIONAL CHANGES AS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND. ONE CAVEAT TO KEEP IN
MIND...MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS UNDERDONE LOW LEVEL WARM
INTRUSIONS AND CAUSED PRECIP TYPE CHALLENGES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SURFACE WAVES ALL WINTER LONG. NOT SAYING THIS HAPPENS
HERE IF THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS HOLDS. IT IS JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS MODELS HONE
IN ON A CONSENSUS SOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS. SHOULD THINGS COME
TOGETHER FOR A PREDOMINANT SNOW EVENT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ONCE THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES AND DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY...A FRESH BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS
BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 928 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEAK UPPER WAVE SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY AT KHUF AND KIND. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP WILL
COME TO AN END BY 12-13Z AS THE WAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST.
LOW CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL TAKE LONGER TO DEPART WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. IFR AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE
PREVALENT THIS MORNING...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENTS IN THE DECK UP TO
1500-2000FT BY MIDDAY.

STRATOCU DECK WILL SCATTER BY LATE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH SKIES CLEARING TONIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT OVER THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE SPILLS OVER THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE. N/NE WINDS AT
5-10KTS TODAY WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
CENTERS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 271050
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
550 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FOR MUCH OF THE TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE...WITH THE COLDEST AIR MOVING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. REGIONAL RADAR VIEW SHOWS SNOW
EXTENDING NORTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

TREND IS FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO WEAKEN/DIMINISH AS THE LOW WEAKENS
AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. IR SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD TOPS
WARMING...AND SOME OF THE RADAR ECHOES ARE WEAKENING AS WELL.
HOWEVER HERE AT THE OFFICE WE SAW ENOUGH SNOW TO LOWER THE
VISIBILITY BELOW 2SM WITH VERY WEAK ECHOES EARLIER.

GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE WILL ADD MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES TO
ABOUT 14Z. WILL ADJUST AS NECESSARY LATER.

OTHERWISE TODAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN. LOOKS LIKE SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT
WARM...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER EXISTS. TRIMMED IT
BACK A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH TONIGHT THAT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS WENT
CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN TO
WARM TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF MAV MOS.

ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN DURING THE
EVENING...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH. THESE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AFTER REACHING LOWS DURING
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO
ONLY WENT POPS AFTER 06Z. MOISTURE STILL IS NOT GREAT SO ONLY WENT
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARM SO PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON LOW LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH TO JUST GO RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

CONTINUED CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BUT
MOISTURE STILL NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO KEPT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW LATE AFTERNOON.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THURSDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GETTING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE
A COLD START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY MAINTAINING DRY CHILLY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH DAYS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD COMES DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A STRENGTHENING SURFACE WAVE TRACKS FROM
THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY MORNING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS WAVERED WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS RANGING FROM A SUPPRESSED SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN STATES TO A MORE PHASED SOLUTION BRINGING A GREATER
IMPACT NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 00Z GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS
TRENDED BACK TOWARDS THE MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND A BROAD AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SPREADING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

WITH COLD AIR LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE TRACK TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...PRECIP WOULD LIKELY FALL AS SNOW
AS IT STANDS NOW WITH POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP ON
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THAT CAN TAKE PLACE. STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND LIKELY TO SEE
ADDITIONAL CHANGES AS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND. ONE CAVEAT TO KEEP IN
MIND...MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS UNDERDONE LOW LEVEL WARM
INTRUSIONS AND CAUSED PRECIP TYPE CHALLENGES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SURFACE WAVES ALL WINTER LONG. NOT SAYING THIS HAPPENS
HERE IF THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS HOLDS. IT IS JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS MODELS HONE
IN ON A CONSENSUS SOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS. SHOULD THINGS COME
TOGETHER FOR A PREDOMINANT SNOW EVENT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ONCE THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES AND DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY...A FRESH BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS
BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 550 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEAK UPPER WAVE SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY AT KHUF AND KIND. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP WILL
COME TO AN END BY 12-13Z AS THE WAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST.
LOW CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL TAKE LONGER TO DEPART WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. IFR AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE
PREVALENT THIS MORNING...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENTS IN THE DECK UP TO
1500-2000FT BY MIDDAY.

STRATOCU DECK WILL SCATTER BY LATE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH SKIES CLEARING TONIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT OVER THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE SPILLS OVER THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE. N/NE WINDS AT
5-10KTS TODAY WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
CENTERS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 271050
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
550 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FOR MUCH OF THE TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE...WITH THE COLDEST AIR MOVING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. REGIONAL RADAR VIEW SHOWS SNOW
EXTENDING NORTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

TREND IS FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO WEAKEN/DIMINISH AS THE LOW WEAKENS
AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. IR SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD TOPS
WARMING...AND SOME OF THE RADAR ECHOES ARE WEAKENING AS WELL.
HOWEVER HERE AT THE OFFICE WE SAW ENOUGH SNOW TO LOWER THE
VISIBILITY BELOW 2SM WITH VERY WEAK ECHOES EARLIER.

GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE WILL ADD MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES TO
ABOUT 14Z. WILL ADJUST AS NECESSARY LATER.

OTHERWISE TODAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN. LOOKS LIKE SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT
WARM...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER EXISTS. TRIMMED IT
BACK A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH TONIGHT THAT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS WENT
CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN TO
WARM TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF MAV MOS.

ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN DURING THE
EVENING...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH. THESE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AFTER REACHING LOWS DURING
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO
ONLY WENT POPS AFTER 06Z. MOISTURE STILL IS NOT GREAT SO ONLY WENT
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARM SO PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON LOW LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH TO JUST GO RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

CONTINUED CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BUT
MOISTURE STILL NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO KEPT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW LATE AFTERNOON.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THURSDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GETTING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE
A COLD START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY MAINTAINING DRY CHILLY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH DAYS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD COMES DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A STRENGTHENING SURFACE WAVE TRACKS FROM
THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY MORNING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS WAVERED WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS RANGING FROM A SUPPRESSED SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN STATES TO A MORE PHASED SOLUTION BRINGING A GREATER
IMPACT NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 00Z GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS
TRENDED BACK TOWARDS THE MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND A BROAD AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SPREADING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

WITH COLD AIR LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE TRACK TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...PRECIP WOULD LIKELY FALL AS SNOW
AS IT STANDS NOW WITH POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP ON
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THAT CAN TAKE PLACE. STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND LIKELY TO SEE
ADDITIONAL CHANGES AS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND. ONE CAVEAT TO KEEP IN
MIND...MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS UNDERDONE LOW LEVEL WARM
INTRUSIONS AND CAUSED PRECIP TYPE CHALLENGES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SURFACE WAVES ALL WINTER LONG. NOT SAYING THIS HAPPENS
HERE IF THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS HOLDS. IT IS JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS MODELS HONE
IN ON A CONSENSUS SOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS. SHOULD THINGS COME
TOGETHER FOR A PREDOMINANT SNOW EVENT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ONCE THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES AND DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY...A FRESH BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS
BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 550 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEAK UPPER WAVE SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY AT KHUF AND KIND. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP WILL
COME TO AN END BY 12-13Z AS THE WAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST.
LOW CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL TAKE LONGER TO DEPART WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. IFR AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE
PREVALENT THIS MORNING...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENTS IN THE DECK UP TO
1500-2000FT BY MIDDAY.

STRATOCU DECK WILL SCATTER BY LATE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH SKIES CLEARING TONIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT OVER THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE SPILLS OVER THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE. N/NE WINDS AT
5-10KTS TODAY WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
CENTERS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 270839
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
339 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FOR MUCH OF THE TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE...WITH THE COLDEST AIR MOVING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. REGIONAL RADAR VIEW SHOWS SNOW
EXTENDING NORTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

TREND IS FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO WEAKEN/DIMINISH AS THE LOW WEAKENS
AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. IR SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD TOPS
WARMING...AND SOME OF THE RADAR ECHOES ARE WEAKENING AS WELL.
HOWEVER HERE AT THE OFFICE WE SAW ENOUGH SNOW TO LOWER THE
VISIBILITY BELOW 2SM WITH VERY WEAK ECHOES EARLIER.

GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE WILL ADD MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES TO
ABOUT 14Z. WILL ADJUST AS NECESSARY LATER.

OTHERWISE TODAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN. LOOKS LIKE SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT
WARM...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER EXISTS. TRIMMED IT
BACK A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH TONIGHT THAT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS WENT
CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN TO
WARM TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF MAV MOS.

ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN DURING THE
EVENING...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH. THESE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AFTER REACHING LOWS DURING
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO
ONLY WENT POPS AFTER 06Z. MOISTURE STILL IS NOT GREAT SO ONLY WENT
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARM SO PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON LOW LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH TO JUST GO RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

CONTINUED CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BUT
MOISTURE STILL NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO KEPT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW LATE AFTERNOON.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THURSDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GETTING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE
A COLD START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY MAINTAINING DRY CHILLY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH DAYS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD COMES DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A STRENGTHENING SURFACE WAVE TRACKS FROM
THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY MORNING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS WAVERED WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS RANGING FROM A SUPPRESSED SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN STATES TO A MORE PHASED SOLUTION BRINGING A GREATER
IMPACT NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 00Z GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS
TRENDED BACK TOWARDS THE MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND A BROAD AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SPREADING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

WITH COLD AIR LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE TRACK TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...PRECIP WOULD LIKELY FALL AS SNOW
AS IT STANDS NOW WITH POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP ON
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THAT CAN TAKE PLACE. STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND LIKELY TO SEE
ADDITIONAL CHANGES AS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND. ONE CAVEAT TO KEEP IN
MIND...MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS UNDERDONE LOW LEVEL WARM
INTRUSIONS AND CAUSED PRECIP TYPE CHALLENGES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SURFACE WAVES ALL WINTER LONG. NOT SAYING THIS HAPPENS
HERE IF THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS HOLDS. IT IS JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS MODELS HONE
IN ON A CONSENSUS SOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS. SHOULD THINGS COME
TOGETHER FOR A PREDOMINANT SNOW EVENT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ONCE THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES AND DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY...A FRESH BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS
BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

CEILINGS AT THE TERMINALS HAVE LARGELY DROPPED INTO IFR AND LOWER
CATEGORY...AND EXPECT THE LOW CEILINGS TO LINGER AT LEAST TO
DAYBREAK IF NOT A FEW HOURS LONGER BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS. LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES CONTINUE AND ANOTHER
SMALL AREA OF -SHSN DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12-13Z MOST AREAS.

06Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT
BMG AND HUF. MVFR OR WORSE POSSIBLE AT LAF THROUGH 07Z OR 08Z IN
LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT DRIZZLE. BUFKIT DOES NOT FAVOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
AT THE OTHER SITES...HOWEVER RECENT REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE AT LAF AND NORTH AND WEST DEMAND AT LEAST A MENTION.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AFTER
09Z AT IND AND HUF AND 10Z AT BMG. FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MVFR OR VFR AFTER 15Z WITH ONLY CIRRUS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
NORTHEAST AND NORTH 8 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...KOCH/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 270839
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
339 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FOR MUCH OF THE TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE...WITH THE COLDEST AIR MOVING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. REGIONAL RADAR VIEW SHOWS SNOW
EXTENDING NORTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

TREND IS FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO WEAKEN/DIMINISH AS THE LOW WEAKENS
AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. IR SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD TOPS
WARMING...AND SOME OF THE RADAR ECHOES ARE WEAKENING AS WELL.
HOWEVER HERE AT THE OFFICE WE SAW ENOUGH SNOW TO LOWER THE
VISIBILITY BELOW 2SM WITH VERY WEAK ECHOES EARLIER.

GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE WILL ADD MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES TO
ABOUT 14Z. WILL ADJUST AS NECESSARY LATER.

OTHERWISE TODAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN. LOOKS LIKE SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT
WARM...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER EXISTS. TRIMMED IT
BACK A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH TONIGHT THAT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS WENT
CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN TO
WARM TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF MAV MOS.

ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN DURING THE
EVENING...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH. THESE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AFTER REACHING LOWS DURING
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO
ONLY WENT POPS AFTER 06Z. MOISTURE STILL IS NOT GREAT SO ONLY WENT
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARM SO PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON LOW LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH TO JUST GO RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

CONTINUED CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BUT
MOISTURE STILL NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO KEPT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW LATE AFTERNOON.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THURSDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GETTING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE
A COLD START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY MAINTAINING DRY CHILLY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH DAYS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD COMES DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A STRENGTHENING SURFACE WAVE TRACKS FROM
THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY MORNING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS WAVERED WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS RANGING FROM A SUPPRESSED SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN STATES TO A MORE PHASED SOLUTION BRINGING A GREATER
IMPACT NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 00Z GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS
TRENDED BACK TOWARDS THE MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND A BROAD AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SPREADING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

WITH COLD AIR LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE TRACK TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...PRECIP WOULD LIKELY FALL AS SNOW
AS IT STANDS NOW WITH POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP ON
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THAT CAN TAKE PLACE. STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND LIKELY TO SEE
ADDITIONAL CHANGES AS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND. ONE CAVEAT TO KEEP IN
MIND...MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS UNDERDONE LOW LEVEL WARM
INTRUSIONS AND CAUSED PRECIP TYPE CHALLENGES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SURFACE WAVES ALL WINTER LONG. NOT SAYING THIS HAPPENS
HERE IF THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS HOLDS. IT IS JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS MODELS HONE
IN ON A CONSENSUS SOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS. SHOULD THINGS COME
TOGETHER FOR A PREDOMINANT SNOW EVENT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ONCE THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES AND DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY...A FRESH BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS
BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

CEILINGS AT THE TERMINALS HAVE LARGELY DROPPED INTO IFR AND LOWER
CATEGORY...AND EXPECT THE LOW CEILINGS TO LINGER AT LEAST TO
DAYBREAK IF NOT A FEW HOURS LONGER BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS. LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES CONTINUE AND ANOTHER
SMALL AREA OF -SHSN DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12-13Z MOST AREAS.

06Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT
BMG AND HUF. MVFR OR WORSE POSSIBLE AT LAF THROUGH 07Z OR 08Z IN
LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT DRIZZLE. BUFKIT DOES NOT FAVOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
AT THE OTHER SITES...HOWEVER RECENT REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE AT LAF AND NORTH AND WEST DEMAND AT LEAST A MENTION.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AFTER
09Z AT IND AND HUF AND 10Z AT BMG. FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MVFR OR VFR AFTER 15Z WITH ONLY CIRRUS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
NORTHEAST AND NORTH 8 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...KOCH/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 270823
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FOR MUCH OF THE TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE...WITH THE COLDEST AIR MOVING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. REGIONAL RADAR VIEW SHOWS SNOW
EXTENDING NORTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

TREND IS FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO WEAKEN/DIMINISH AS THE LOW WEAKENS
AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. IR SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD TOPS
WARMING...AND SOME OF THE RADAR ECHOES ARE WEAKENING AS WELL.
HOWEVER HERE AT THE OFFICE WE SAW ENOUGH SNOW TO LOWER THE
VISIBILITY BELOW 2SM WITH VERY WEAK ECHOES EARLIER.

GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE WILL ADD MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES TO
ABOUT 14Z. WILL ADJUST AS NECESSARY LATER.

OTHERWISE TODAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN. LOOKS LIKE SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT
WARM...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER EXISTS. TRIMMED IT
BACK A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH TONIGHT THAT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS WENT
CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN TO
WARM TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF MAV MOS.

ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN DURING THE
EVENING...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH. THESE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AFTER REACHING LOWS DURING
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO
ONLY WENT POPS AFTER 06Z. MOISTURE STILL IS NOT GREAT SO ONLY WENT
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARM SO PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON LOW LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH TO JUST GO RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

CONTINUED CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BUT
MOISTURE STILL NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO KEPT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW LATE AFTERNOON.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THURSDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GETTING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE
A COLD START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY MAINTAINING DRY CHILLY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH DAYS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD COMES DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A STRENGTHENING SURFACE WAVE TRACKS FROM
THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY MORNING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS WAVERED WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS RANGING FROM A SUPPRESSED SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN STATES TO A MORE PHASED SOLUTION BRINGING A GREATER
IMPACT NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 00Z GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS
TRENDED BACK TOWARDS THE MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND A BROAD AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SPREADING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

WITH COLD AIR LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE TRACK TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...PRECIP WOULD LIKELY FALL AS SNOW
AS IT STANDS NOW WITH POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP ON
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THAT CAN TAKE PLACE. STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND LIKELY TO SEE
ADDITIONAL CHANGES AS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND. ONE CAVEAT TO KEEP IN
MIND...MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS UNDERDONE LOW LEVEL WARM
INTRUSIONS AND CAUSED PRECIP TYPE CHALLENGES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SURFACE WAVES ALL WINTER LONG. NOT SAYING THIS HAPPENS
HERE IF THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS HOLDS. IT IS JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS MODELS HONE
IN ON A CONSENSUS SOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS. SHOULD THINGS COME
TOGETHER FOR A PREDOMINANT SNOW EVENT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ONCE THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES AND DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY...A FRESH BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS
BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1140 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT
BMG AND HUF. MVFR OR WORSE POSSIBLE AT LAF THROUGH 07Z OR 08Z IN
LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT DRIZZLE. BUFKIT DOES NOT FAVOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
AT THE OTHER SITES...HOWEVER RECENT REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE AT LAF AND NORTH AND WEST DEMAND AT LEAST A MENTION.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AFTER
09Z AT IND AND HUF AND 10Z AT BMG. FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MVFR OR VFR AFTER 15Z WITH ONLY CIRRUS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
NORTHEAST AND NORTH 8 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...KOCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 270823
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FOR MUCH OF THE TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE...WITH THE COLDEST AIR MOVING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. REGIONAL RADAR VIEW SHOWS SNOW
EXTENDING NORTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

TREND IS FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO WEAKEN/DIMINISH AS THE LOW WEAKENS
AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. IR SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD TOPS
WARMING...AND SOME OF THE RADAR ECHOES ARE WEAKENING AS WELL.
HOWEVER HERE AT THE OFFICE WE SAW ENOUGH SNOW TO LOWER THE
VISIBILITY BELOW 2SM WITH VERY WEAK ECHOES EARLIER.

GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE WILL ADD MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES TO
ABOUT 14Z. WILL ADJUST AS NECESSARY LATER.

OTHERWISE TODAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN. LOOKS LIKE SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT
WARM...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER EXISTS. TRIMMED IT
BACK A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH TONIGHT THAT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS WENT
CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN TO
WARM TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF MAV MOS.

ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN DURING THE
EVENING...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH. THESE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AFTER REACHING LOWS DURING
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO
ONLY WENT POPS AFTER 06Z. MOISTURE STILL IS NOT GREAT SO ONLY WENT
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARM SO PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON LOW LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH TO JUST GO RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

CONTINUED CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BUT
MOISTURE STILL NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO KEPT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW LATE AFTERNOON.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THURSDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GETTING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE
A COLD START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY MAINTAINING DRY CHILLY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH DAYS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD COMES DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A STRENGTHENING SURFACE WAVE TRACKS FROM
THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY MORNING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS WAVERED WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS RANGING FROM A SUPPRESSED SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN STATES TO A MORE PHASED SOLUTION BRINGING A GREATER
IMPACT NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 00Z GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS
TRENDED BACK TOWARDS THE MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND A BROAD AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SPREADING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

WITH COLD AIR LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE TRACK TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...PRECIP WOULD LIKELY FALL AS SNOW
AS IT STANDS NOW WITH POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP ON
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THAT CAN TAKE PLACE. STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND LIKELY TO SEE
ADDITIONAL CHANGES AS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND. ONE CAVEAT TO KEEP IN
MIND...MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS UNDERDONE LOW LEVEL WARM
INTRUSIONS AND CAUSED PRECIP TYPE CHALLENGES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SURFACE WAVES ALL WINTER LONG. NOT SAYING THIS HAPPENS
HERE IF THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS HOLDS. IT IS JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS MODELS HONE
IN ON A CONSENSUS SOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS. SHOULD THINGS COME
TOGETHER FOR A PREDOMINANT SNOW EVENT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ONCE THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES AND DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY...A FRESH BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS
BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1140 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT
BMG AND HUF. MVFR OR WORSE POSSIBLE AT LAF THROUGH 07Z OR 08Z IN
LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT DRIZZLE. BUFKIT DOES NOT FAVOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
AT THE OTHER SITES...HOWEVER RECENT REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE AT LAF AND NORTH AND WEST DEMAND AT LEAST A MENTION.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AFTER
09Z AT IND AND HUF AND 10Z AT BMG. FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MVFR OR VFR AFTER 15Z WITH ONLY CIRRUS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
NORTHEAST AND NORTH 8 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...KOCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 270800
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 152 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

A QUICK MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA THIS EVENING...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING TO WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
TO REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AND PASS ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA ON EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION.

ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND...ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1039 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

UPDATE...
INSERTED MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED
UPSTREAM. CONTINUED TO LEAVE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES DRY EXCEPT FOR
A FEW FLURRIES. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP THIS EVENING. GFS SUGGESTS
THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING SNOW OVER ILLINOIS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SSE AMID THE QUICK FLOW ALOFT. HRRR SHOW PRECIP
MAINLY CONTAINED TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TIME
HEIGHTS THIS EVENING SHOW BEST SATURATION IN THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS LITTLE TO NO HELP
AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD LOW AND MID LEVEL SATURATION THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

THUS WILL RAISE POPS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING TOWARD A FLURRY OR DRY FORECAST ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST. AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS
NEUTRAL. THUS WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND ON TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 152 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS INITIALLY
FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY.

DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
FOLLOWING REASONS:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS AND
PASS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
AMID SUBSIDENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGREE...ONLY SHOWING SOME
SATURATION NEAR 12Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A DEEP TROUGH OVER
EASTERN 1/2 OF THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A VERY
COLD AND NW FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL HELP IN RESULTING
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THUS WITH ONLY A FEW QUICK PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED...WILL TREND TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY ON TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH A BLEND ON TEMPS.

ON LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE GFS INDICATES A WELL ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE ALOFT PUSHING INTO INDIANA FROM THE WEST. ONCE
AGAIN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT LOWER LEVEL SATURATION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS THAT WILL ALLOW ANY PRECIP ON THURSDAY MORNING TO FALL AS
RAIN. 300K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE ALONG WITH A
SURGE OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 2 G/KG. THUS ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP
IS EXPECTED. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
BE WELL EAST OF INDIANA AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
IN PLAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SATURATED LOWER PARTS OF THE
COLUMN FALLING BELOW FREEZING...THUS A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING
THE AFTERNOON FOR ANY LINGERING PRECIP LOOKS REASONABLE. HOWEVER
WITH A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND THE BEST FORCING OFF TO THE
EAST...ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE
A COLD START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY MAINTAINING DRY CHILLY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH DAYS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD COMES DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A STRENGTHENING SURFACE WAVE TRACKS FROM
THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY MORNING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS WAVERED WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS RANGING FROM A SUPPRESSED SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN STATES TO A MORE PHASED SOLUTION BRINGING A GREATER
IMPACT NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 00Z GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS
TRENDED BACK TOWARDS THE MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND A BROAD AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SPREADING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

WITH COLD AIR LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE TRACK TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...PRECIP WOULD LIKELY FALL AS SNOW
AS IT STANDS NOW WITH POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP ON
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THAT CAN TAKE PLACE. STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND LIKELY TO SEE
ADDITIONAL CHANGES AS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND. ONE CAVEAT TO KEEP IN
MIND...MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS UNDERDONE LOW LEVEL WARM
INTRUSIONS AND CAUSED PRECIP TYPE CHALLENGES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SURFACE WAVES ALL WINTER LONG. NOT SAYING THIS HAPPENS
HERE IF THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS HOLDS. IT IS JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS MODELS HONE
IN ON A CONSENSUS SOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS. SHOULD THINGS COME
TOGETHER FOR A PREDOMINANT SNOW EVENT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ONCE THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES AND DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY...A FRESH BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS
BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1140 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT
BMG AND HUF. MVFR OR WORSE POSSIBLE AT LAF THROUGH 07Z OR 08Z IN
LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT DRIZZLE. BUFKIT DOES NOT FAVOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
AT THE OTHER SITES...HOWEVER RECENT REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE AT LAF AND NORTH AND WEST DEMAND AT LEAST A MENTION.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AFTER
09Z AT IND AND HUF AND 10Z AT BMG. FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MVFR OR VFR AFTER 15Z WITH ONLY CIRRUS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
NORTHEAST AND NORTH 8 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...KOCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 270800
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 152 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

A QUICK MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA THIS EVENING...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING TO WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
TO REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AND PASS ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA ON EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION.

ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND...ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1039 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

UPDATE...
INSERTED MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED
UPSTREAM. CONTINUED TO LEAVE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES DRY EXCEPT FOR
A FEW FLURRIES. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP THIS EVENING. GFS SUGGESTS
THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING SNOW OVER ILLINOIS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SSE AMID THE QUICK FLOW ALOFT. HRRR SHOW PRECIP
MAINLY CONTAINED TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TIME
HEIGHTS THIS EVENING SHOW BEST SATURATION IN THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS LITTLE TO NO HELP
AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD LOW AND MID LEVEL SATURATION THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

THUS WILL RAISE POPS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING TOWARD A FLURRY OR DRY FORECAST ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST. AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS
NEUTRAL. THUS WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND ON TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 152 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS INITIALLY
FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY.

DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
FOLLOWING REASONS:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS AND
PASS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
AMID SUBSIDENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGREE...ONLY SHOWING SOME
SATURATION NEAR 12Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A DEEP TROUGH OVER
EASTERN 1/2 OF THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A VERY
COLD AND NW FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL HELP IN RESULTING
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THUS WITH ONLY A FEW QUICK PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED...WILL TREND TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY ON TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH A BLEND ON TEMPS.

ON LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE GFS INDICATES A WELL ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE ALOFT PUSHING INTO INDIANA FROM THE WEST. ONCE
AGAIN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT LOWER LEVEL SATURATION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS THAT WILL ALLOW ANY PRECIP ON THURSDAY MORNING TO FALL AS
RAIN. 300K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE ALONG WITH A
SURGE OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 2 G/KG. THUS ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP
IS EXPECTED. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
BE WELL EAST OF INDIANA AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
IN PLAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SATURATED LOWER PARTS OF THE
COLUMN FALLING BELOW FREEZING...THUS A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING
THE AFTERNOON FOR ANY LINGERING PRECIP LOOKS REASONABLE. HOWEVER
WITH A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND THE BEST FORCING OFF TO THE
EAST...ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE
A COLD START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY MAINTAINING DRY CHILLY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH DAYS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD COMES DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A STRENGTHENING SURFACE WAVE TRACKS FROM
THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY MORNING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS WAVERED WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS RANGING FROM A SUPPRESSED SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN STATES TO A MORE PHASED SOLUTION BRINGING A GREATER
IMPACT NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 00Z GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS
TRENDED BACK TOWARDS THE MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND A BROAD AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SPREADING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

WITH COLD AIR LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE TRACK TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...PRECIP WOULD LIKELY FALL AS SNOW
AS IT STANDS NOW WITH POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP ON
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THAT CAN TAKE PLACE. STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND LIKELY TO SEE
ADDITIONAL CHANGES AS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND. ONE CAVEAT TO KEEP IN
MIND...MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS UNDERDONE LOW LEVEL WARM
INTRUSIONS AND CAUSED PRECIP TYPE CHALLENGES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SURFACE WAVES ALL WINTER LONG. NOT SAYING THIS HAPPENS
HERE IF THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS HOLDS. IT IS JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS MODELS HONE
IN ON A CONSENSUS SOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS. SHOULD THINGS COME
TOGETHER FOR A PREDOMINANT SNOW EVENT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ONCE THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES AND DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY...A FRESH BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS
BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1140 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT
BMG AND HUF. MVFR OR WORSE POSSIBLE AT LAF THROUGH 07Z OR 08Z IN
LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT DRIZZLE. BUFKIT DOES NOT FAVOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
AT THE OTHER SITES...HOWEVER RECENT REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE AT LAF AND NORTH AND WEST DEMAND AT LEAST A MENTION.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AFTER
09Z AT IND AND HUF AND 10Z AT BMG. FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MVFR OR VFR AFTER 15Z WITH ONLY CIRRUS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
NORTHEAST AND NORTH 8 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...KOCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 270441
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1141 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 152 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

A QUICK MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA THIS EVENING...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING TO WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
TO REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AND PASS ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA ON EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION.

ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND...ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1039 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

UPDATE...
INSERTED MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED
UPSTREAM. CONTINUED TO LEAVE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES DRY EXCEPT FOR
A FEW FLURRIES. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP THIS EVENING. GFS SUGGESTS
THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING SNOW OVER ILLINOIS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SSE AMID THE QUICK FLOW ALOFT. HRRR SHOW PRECIP
MAINLY CONTAINED TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TIME
HEIGHTS THIS EVENING SHOW BEST SATURATION IN THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS LITTLE TO NO HELP
AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD LOW AND MID LEVEL SATURATION THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

THUS WILL RAISE POPS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING TOWARD A FLURRY OR DRY FORECAST ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST. AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS
NEUTRAL. THUS WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND ON TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 152 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS INITIALLY
FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY.

DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
FOLLOWING REASONS:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS AND
PASS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
AMID SUBSIDENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGREE...ONLY SHOWING SOME
SATURATION NEAR 12Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A DEEP TROUGH OVER
EASTERN 1/2 OF THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A VERY
COLD AND NW FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL HELP IN RESULTING
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THUS WITH ONLY A FEW QUICK PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED...WILL TREND TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY ON TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH A BLEND ON TEMPS.

ON LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE GFS INDICATES A WELL ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE ALOFT PUSHING INTO INDIANA FROM THE WEST. ONCE
AGAIN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT LOWER LEVEL SATURATION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS THAT WILL ALLOW ANY PRECIP ON THURSDAY MORNING TO FALL AS
RAIN. 300K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE ALONG WITH A
SURGE OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 2 G/KG. THUS ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP
IS EXPECTED. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
BE WELL EAST OF INDIANA AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
IN PLAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SATURATED LOWER PARTS OF THE
COLUMN FALLING BELOW FREEZING...THUS A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING
THE AFTERNOON FOR ANY LINGERING PRECIP LOOKS REASONABLE. HOWEVER
WITH A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND THE BEST FORCING OFF TO THE
EAST...ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

ONE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING OUR REGION THURSDAY EVENING...THUS WILL
CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EAST AND CENTRAL THURSDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING US A CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

FINALLY COLDER AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE REST OF THE LONG
TERM AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER DURING THIS PERIOD.  BUT ALL AND
ALL WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1140 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT
BMG AND HUF. MVFR OR WORSE POSSIBLE AT LAF THROUGH 07Z OR 08Z IN
LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT DRIZZLE. BUFKIT DOES NOT FAVOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
AT THE OTHER SITES...HOWEVER RECENT REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE AT LAF AND NORTH AND WEST DEMAND AT LEAST A MENTION.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AFTER
09Z AT IND AND HUF AND 10Z AT BMG. FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MVFR OR VFR AFTER 15Z WITH ONLY CIRRUS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
NORTHEAST AND NORTH 8 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...KOCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 270441
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1141 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 152 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

A QUICK MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA THIS EVENING...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING TO WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
TO REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AND PASS ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA ON EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION.

ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND...ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1039 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

UPDATE...
INSERTED MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED
UPSTREAM. CONTINUED TO LEAVE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES DRY EXCEPT FOR
A FEW FLURRIES. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP THIS EVENING. GFS SUGGESTS
THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING SNOW OVER ILLINOIS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SSE AMID THE QUICK FLOW ALOFT. HRRR SHOW PRECIP
MAINLY CONTAINED TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TIME
HEIGHTS THIS EVENING SHOW BEST SATURATION IN THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS LITTLE TO NO HELP
AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD LOW AND MID LEVEL SATURATION THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

THUS WILL RAISE POPS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING TOWARD A FLURRY OR DRY FORECAST ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST. AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS
NEUTRAL. THUS WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND ON TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 152 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS INITIALLY
FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY.

DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
FOLLOWING REASONS:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS AND
PASS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
AMID SUBSIDENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGREE...ONLY SHOWING SOME
SATURATION NEAR 12Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A DEEP TROUGH OVER
EASTERN 1/2 OF THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A VERY
COLD AND NW FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL HELP IN RESULTING
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THUS WITH ONLY A FEW QUICK PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED...WILL TREND TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY ON TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH A BLEND ON TEMPS.

ON LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE GFS INDICATES A WELL ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE ALOFT PUSHING INTO INDIANA FROM THE WEST. ONCE
AGAIN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT LOWER LEVEL SATURATION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS THAT WILL ALLOW ANY PRECIP ON THURSDAY MORNING TO FALL AS
RAIN. 300K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE ALONG WITH A
SURGE OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 2 G/KG. THUS ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP
IS EXPECTED. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
BE WELL EAST OF INDIANA AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
IN PLAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SATURATED LOWER PARTS OF THE
COLUMN FALLING BELOW FREEZING...THUS A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING
THE AFTERNOON FOR ANY LINGERING PRECIP LOOKS REASONABLE. HOWEVER
WITH A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND THE BEST FORCING OFF TO THE
EAST...ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

ONE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING OUR REGION THURSDAY EVENING...THUS WILL
CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EAST AND CENTRAL THURSDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING US A CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

FINALLY COLDER AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE REST OF THE LONG
TERM AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER DURING THIS PERIOD.  BUT ALL AND
ALL WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1140 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT
BMG AND HUF. MVFR OR WORSE POSSIBLE AT LAF THROUGH 07Z OR 08Z IN
LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT DRIZZLE. BUFKIT DOES NOT FAVOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
AT THE OTHER SITES...HOWEVER RECENT REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE AT LAF AND NORTH AND WEST DEMAND AT LEAST A MENTION.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AFTER
09Z AT IND AND HUF AND 10Z AT BMG. FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MVFR OR VFR AFTER 15Z WITH ONLY CIRRUS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
NORTHEAST AND NORTH 8 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...KOCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 270353
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1053 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 152 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

A QUICK MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA THIS EVENING...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING TO WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
TO REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AND PASS ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA ON EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION.

ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND...ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1039 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

UPDATE...
INSERTED MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED
UPSTREAM. CONTINUED TO LEAVE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES DRY EXCEPT FOR
A FEW FLURRIES. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP THIS EVENING. GFS SUGGESTS
THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING SNOW OVER ILLINOIS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SSE AMID THE QUICK FLOW ALOFT. HRRR SHOW PRECIP
MAINLY CONTAINED TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TIME
HEIGHTS THIS EVENING SHOW BEST SATURATION IN THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS LITTLE TO NO HELP
AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD LOW AND MID LEVEL SATURATION THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

THUS WILL RAISE POPS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING TOWARD A FLURRY OR DRY FORECAST ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST. AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS
NEUTRAL. THUS WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND ON TEMPS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 152 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS INITALLY
FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY.

DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
FOLLOWING REASONS:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS AND
PASS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
AMID SUBSIDENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGREE...ONLY SHOWING SOME
SATURATION NEAR 12Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A DEEP TROUGH OVER
EASTERN 1/2 OF THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A VERY
COLD AND NW FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL HELP IN RESULTING
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THUS WITH ONLY A FEW QUICK PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED...WILL TREND TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY ON TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH A BLEND ON TEMPS.

ON LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE GFS INDICATES A WELL ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE ALOFT PUSHING INTO INDIANA FROM THE WEST. ONCE
AGAIN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT LOWER LEVEL SATURATION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS THAT WILL ALLOW ANY PRECIP ON THURSDAY MORNING TO FALL AS
RAIN. 300K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE ALONG WITH A
SURGE OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 2 G/KG. THUS ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP
IS EXPECTED. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
BE WELL EAST OF INDIANA AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
IN PLAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SATURATED LOWER PARTS OF THE
COLUMN FALLING BELOW FREEZING...THUS A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING
THE AFTERNOON FOR ANY LINGERING PRECIP LOOKS REASONABLE. HOWEVER
WITH A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND TEH BEST FORCING OFF TO THE
EAST...ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

ONE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING OUR REGION THURSDAY EVENING...THUS WILL
CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EAST AND CENTRAL THURSDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING US A CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

FINALLY COLDER AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE REST OF THE LONG
TERM AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER DURING THIS PERIOD.  BUT ALL AND
ALL WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 935 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

EXTENDED THE FLURRIES THROUGH 06Z BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR.
MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY THROW SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THERE AS WELL
IF TRENDS CONTINUE. ALSO...WENT WITH VFR CEILINGS AS THERE HAS NOT
BEEN AN MVFR CEILING IN 2 HOURS AND UPSTREAM LAF ALSO IS STILL VFR
AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL REMAIN
JUST WEST OF IND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA. MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOULD END AT LAF AFTER 02Z...HUF AFTER 04Z AND BMG AFTER 05Z.
WENT WITH MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT PER MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS
AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF VFR OR BRIEF IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER
15Z TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 3 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST AND
NORTH LESS THAN 8 KNOTS ON TUESDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 270353
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1053 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 152 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

A QUICK MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA THIS EVENING...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING TO WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
TO REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AND PASS ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA ON EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION.

ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND...ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1039 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

UPDATE...
INSERTED MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED
UPSTREAM. CONTINUED TO LEAVE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES DRY EXCEPT FOR
A FEW FLURRIES. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP THIS EVENING. GFS SUGGESTS
THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING SNOW OVER ILLINOIS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SSE AMID THE QUICK FLOW ALOFT. HRRR SHOW PRECIP
MAINLY CONTAINED TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TIME
HEIGHTS THIS EVENING SHOW BEST SATURATION IN THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS LITTLE TO NO HELP
AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD LOW AND MID LEVEL SATURATION THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

THUS WILL RAISE POPS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING TOWARD A FLURRY OR DRY FORECAST ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST. AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS
NEUTRAL. THUS WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND ON TEMPS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 152 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS INITALLY
FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY.

DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
FOLLOWING REASONS:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS AND
PASS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
AMID SUBSIDENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGREE...ONLY SHOWING SOME
SATURATION NEAR 12Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A DEEP TROUGH OVER
EASTERN 1/2 OF THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A VERY
COLD AND NW FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL HELP IN RESULTING
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THUS WITH ONLY A FEW QUICK PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED...WILL TREND TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY ON TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH A BLEND ON TEMPS.

ON LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE GFS INDICATES A WELL ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE ALOFT PUSHING INTO INDIANA FROM THE WEST. ONCE
AGAIN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT LOWER LEVEL SATURATION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS THAT WILL ALLOW ANY PRECIP ON THURSDAY MORNING TO FALL AS
RAIN. 300K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE ALONG WITH A
SURGE OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 2 G/KG. THUS ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP
IS EXPECTED. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
BE WELL EAST OF INDIANA AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
IN PLAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SATURATED LOWER PARTS OF THE
COLUMN FALLING BELOW FREEZING...THUS A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING
THE AFTERNOON FOR ANY LINGERING PRECIP LOOKS REASONABLE. HOWEVER
WITH A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND TEH BEST FORCING OFF TO THE
EAST...ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

ONE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING OUR REGION THURSDAY EVENING...THUS WILL
CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EAST AND CENTRAL THURSDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING US A CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

FINALLY COLDER AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE REST OF THE LONG
TERM AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER DURING THIS PERIOD.  BUT ALL AND
ALL WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 935 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

EXTENDED THE FLURRIES THROUGH 06Z BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR.
MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY THROW SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THERE AS WELL
IF TRENDS CONTINUE. ALSO...WENT WITH VFR CEILINGS AS THERE HAS NOT
BEEN AN MVFR CEILING IN 2 HOURS AND UPSTREAM LAF ALSO IS STILL VFR
AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL REMAIN
JUST WEST OF IND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA. MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOULD END AT LAF AFTER 02Z...HUF AFTER 04Z AND BMG AFTER 05Z.
WENT WITH MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT PER MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS
AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF VFR OR BRIEF IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER
15Z TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 3 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST AND
NORTH LESS THAN 8 KNOTS ON TUESDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 270237
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
935 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 152 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

A QUICK MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA THIS EVENING...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING TO WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
TO REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AND PASS ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA ON EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION.

ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND...ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 152 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...EXTENDING NORTH
ACROSS NW INDIANA INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. RADAR SHOWS AM AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS...DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. PRECIP
APPEARED TO BE VERY LIGHT.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE PRECIP THIS EVENING. GFS AND
AND SUGGEST THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING SNOW OVER
ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SSE AMID THE QUICK FLOW ALOFT.
HRRR SHOW PRECIP MAINLY CONTAINED TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TIME HEIGHTS THIS EVENING SHOW BEST SATURATION IN
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LESS
MOISTURE AVAILABLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS
LITTLE TO NO HELP AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
WESTERN INDIANA CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD LOW AND MID LEVEL SATURATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THUS WILL RAISE POPS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING TOWARD A FLURRY OR DRY FORECAST ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST. AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS
NEUTRAL. THUS WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND ON TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 152 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS INITALLY
FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY.

DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
FOLLOWING REASONS:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS AND
PASS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
AMID SUBSIDENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGREE...ONLY SHOWING SOME
SATURATION NEAR 12Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A DEEP TROUGH OVER
EASTERN 1/2 OF THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A VERY
COLD AND NW FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL HELP IN RESULTING
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THUS WITH ONLY A FEW QUICK PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED...WILL TREND TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY ON TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH A BLEND ON TEMPS.

ON LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE GFS INDICATES A WELL ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE ALOFT PUSHING INTO INDIANA FROM THE WEST. ONCE
AGAIN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT LOWER LEVEL SATURATION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS THAT WILL ALLOW ANY PRECIP ON THURSDAY MORNING TO FALL AS
RAIN. 300K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE ALONG WITH A
SURGE OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 2 G/KG. THUS ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP
IS EXPECTED. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
BE WELL EAST OF INDIANA AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
IN PLAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SATURATED LOWER PARTS OF THE
COLUMN FALLING BELOW FREEZING...THUS A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING
THE AFTERNOON FOR ANY LINGERING PRECIP LOOKS REASONABLE. HOWEVER
WITH A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND TEH BEST FORCING OFF TO THE
EAST...ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

ONE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING OUR REGION THURSDAY EVENING...THUS WILL
CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EAST AND CENTRAL THURSDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING US A CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

FINALLY COLDER AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE REST OF THE LONG
TERM AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER DURING THIS PERIOD.  BUT ALL AND
ALL WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 935 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

EXTENDED THE FLURRIES THROUGH 06Z BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR.
MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY THROW SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THERE AS WELL
IF TRENDS CONTINUE. ALSO...WENT WITH VFR CEILINGS AS THERE HAS NOT
BEEN AN MVFR CEILING IN 2 HOURS AND UPSTREAM LAF ALSO IS STILL VFR
AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL REMAIN
JUST WEST OF IND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA. MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOULD END AT LAF AFTER 02Z...HUF AFTER 04Z AND BMG AFTER 05Z.
WENT WITH MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT PER MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS
AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF VFR OR BRIEF IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER
15Z TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 3 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST AND
NORTH LESS THAN 8 KNOTS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






















000
FXUS63 KIND 270126
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
825 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 152 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

A QUICK MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA THIS EVENING...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING TO WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
TO REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AND PASS ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA ON EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION.

ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND...ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 152 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...EXTENDING NORTH
ACROSS NW INDIANA INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. RADAR SHOWS AM AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS...DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. PRECIP
APPEARED TO BE VERY LIGHT.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE PRECIP THIS EVENING. GFS AND
AND SUGGEST THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING SNOW OVER
ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SSE AMID THE QUICK FLOW ALOFT.
HRRR SHOW PRECIP MAINLY CONTAINED TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TIME HEIGHTS THIS EVENING SHOW BEST SATURATION IN
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LESS
MOISTURE AVAILABLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS
LITTLE TO NO HELP AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
WESTERN INDIANA CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD LOW AND MID LEVEL SATURATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THUS WILL RAISE POPS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING TOWARD A FLURRY OR DRY FORECAST ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST. AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS
NEUTRAL. THUS WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND ON TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 152 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS INITALLY
FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY.

DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
FOLLOWING REASONS:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS AND
PASS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
AMID SUBSIDENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGREE...ONLY SHOWING SOME
SATURATION NEAR 12Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A DEEP TROUGH OVER
EASTERN 1/2 OF THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A VERY
COLD AND NW FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL HELP IN RESULTING
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THUS WITH ONLY A FEW QUICK PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED...WILL TREND TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY ON TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH A BLEND ON TEMPS.

ON LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE GFS INDICATES A WELL ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE ALOFT PUSHING INTO INDIANA FROM THE WEST. ONCE
AGAIN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT LOWER LEVEL SATURATION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS THAT WILL ALLOW ANY PRECIP ON THURSDAY MORNING TO FALL AS
RAIN. 300K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE ALONG WITH A
SURGE OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 2 G/KG. THUS ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP
IS EXPECTED. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
BE WELL EAST OF INDIANA AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
IN PLAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SATURATED LOWER PARTS OF THE
COLUMN FALLING BELOW FREEZING...THUS A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING
THE AFTERNOON FOR ANY LINGERING PRECIP LOOKS REASONABLE. HOWEVER
WITH A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND TEH BEST FORCING OFF TO THE
EAST...ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

ONE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING OUR REGION THURSDAY EVENING...THUS WILL
CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EAST AND CENTRAL THURSDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING US A CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

FINALLY COLDER AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE REST OF THE LONG
TERM AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER DURING THIS PERIOD.  BUT ALL AND
ALL WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 825 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL REMAIN
JUST WEST OF IND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA. MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOULD END AT LAF AFTER 02Z...HUF AFTER 04Z AND BMG AFTER 05Z.
WENT WITH MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT PER MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS
AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF VFR OR BRIEF IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER
15Z TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 3 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST AND
NORTH LESS THAN 8 KNOTS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS



















000
FXUS63 KIND 262252
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
552 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 152 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

A QUICK MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA THIS EVENING...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING TO WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
TO REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AND PASS ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA ON EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION.

ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND...ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 152 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...EXTENDING NORTH
ACROSS NW INDIANA INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. RADAR SHOWS AM AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS...DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. PRECIP
APPEARED TO BE VERY LIGHT.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE PRECIP THIS EVENING. GFS AND
AND SUGGEST THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING SNOW OVER
ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SSE AMID THE QUICK FLOW ALOFT.
HRRR SHOW PRECIP MAINLY CONTAINED TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TIME HEIGHTS THIS EVENING SHOW BEST SATURATION IN
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LESS
MOISTURE AVAILABLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS
LITTLE TO NO HELP AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
WESTERN INDIANA CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD LOW AND MID LEVEL SATURATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THUS WILL RAISE POPS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING TOWARD A FLURRY OR DRY FORECAST ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST. AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS
NEUTRAL. THUS WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND ON TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 152 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS INITALLY
FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY.

DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
FOLLOWING REASONS:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS AND
PASS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
AMID SUBSIDENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGREE...ONLY SHOWING SOME
SATURATION NEAR 12Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A DEEP TROUGH OVER
EASTERN 1/2 OF THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A VERY
COLD AND NW FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL HELP IN RESULTING
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THUS WITH ONLY A FEW QUICK PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED...WILL TREND TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY ON TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH A BLEND ON TEMPS.

ON LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE GFS INDICATES A WELL ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE ALOFT PUSHING INTO INDIANA FROM THE WEST. ONCE
AGAIN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT LOWER LEVEL SATURATION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS THAT WILL ALLOW ANY PRECIP ON THURSDAY MORNING TO FALL AS
RAIN. 300K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE ALONG WITH A
SURGE OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 2 G/KG. THUS ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP
IS EXPECTED. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
BE WELL EAST OF INDIANA AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
IN PLAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SATURATED LOWER PARTS OF THE
COLUMN FALLING BELOW FREEZING...THUS A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING
THE AFTERNOON FOR ANY LINGERING PRECIP LOOKS REASONABLE. HOWEVER
WITH A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND TEH BEST FORCING OFF TO THE
EAST...ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

ONE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING OUR REGION THURSDAY EVENING...THUS WILL
CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EAST AND CENTRAL THURSDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING US A CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

FINALLY COLDER AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE REST OF THE LONG
TERM AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER DURING THIS PERIOD.  BUT ALL AND
ALL WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 552 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL REMAIN
JUST WEST OF IND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA. MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOULD END AT LAF AFTER 02Z...HUF AFTER 04Z AND BMG AFTER 05Z.
WENT WITH MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT PER MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS
AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF VFR OR BRIEF IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER
15Z TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 3 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST AND
NORTH LESS THAN 8 KNOTS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
















000
FXUS63 KIND 262252
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
552 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 152 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

A QUICK MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA THIS EVENING...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING TO WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
TO REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AND PASS ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA ON EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION.

ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND...ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 152 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...EXTENDING NORTH
ACROSS NW INDIANA INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. RADAR SHOWS AM AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS...DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. PRECIP
APPEARED TO BE VERY LIGHT.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE PRECIP THIS EVENING. GFS AND
AND SUGGEST THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING SNOW OVER
ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SSE AMID THE QUICK FLOW ALOFT.
HRRR SHOW PRECIP MAINLY CONTAINED TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TIME HEIGHTS THIS EVENING SHOW BEST SATURATION IN
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LESS
MOISTURE AVAILABLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS
LITTLE TO NO HELP AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
WESTERN INDIANA CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD LOW AND MID LEVEL SATURATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THUS WILL RAISE POPS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING TOWARD A FLURRY OR DRY FORECAST ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST. AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS
NEUTRAL. THUS WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND ON TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 152 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS INITALLY
FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY.

DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
FOLLOWING REASONS:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS AND
PASS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
AMID SUBSIDENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGREE...ONLY SHOWING SOME
SATURATION NEAR 12Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A DEEP TROUGH OVER
EASTERN 1/2 OF THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A VERY
COLD AND NW FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL HELP IN RESULTING
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THUS WITH ONLY A FEW QUICK PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED...WILL TREND TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY ON TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH A BLEND ON TEMPS.

ON LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE GFS INDICATES A WELL ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE ALOFT PUSHING INTO INDIANA FROM THE WEST. ONCE
AGAIN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT LOWER LEVEL SATURATION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS THAT WILL ALLOW ANY PRECIP ON THURSDAY MORNING TO FALL AS
RAIN. 300K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE ALONG WITH A
SURGE OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 2 G/KG. THUS ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP
IS EXPECTED. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
BE WELL EAST OF INDIANA AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
IN PLAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SATURATED LOWER PARTS OF THE
COLUMN FALLING BELOW FREEZING...THUS A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING
THE AFTERNOON FOR ANY LINGERING PRECIP LOOKS REASONABLE. HOWEVER
WITH A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND TEH BEST FORCING OFF TO THE
EAST...ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

ONE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING OUR REGION THURSDAY EVENING...THUS WILL
CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EAST AND CENTRAL THURSDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING US A CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

FINALLY COLDER AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE REST OF THE LONG
TERM AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER DURING THIS PERIOD.  BUT ALL AND
ALL WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 552 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL REMAIN
JUST WEST OF IND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA. MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOULD END AT LAF AFTER 02Z...HUF AFTER 04Z AND BMG AFTER 05Z.
WENT WITH MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT PER MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS
AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF VFR OR BRIEF IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER
15Z TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 3 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST AND
NORTH LESS THAN 8 KNOTS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...MK

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