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000
FXUS63 KIND 282018
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
417 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MOVES ON TO THE EAST ALLOWING A MORE ZONAL
UPPER FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL U.S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.  FINALLY SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND A LITTLE COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST.  IT
WILL BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 8 MPH WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND OF LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. BUT
EASTERN SECTIONS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER WITH LOWS NEAR 20.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  MODELS INDICATE MOST ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z AND 06Z.  OTHERWISE...REST OF THE OF THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE DRY.

MODELS MOVE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
MONDAY AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.

WENT WITH A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS.  BUT ON SUNDAY
WENT CLOSER TO COOLER MET TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  ON TUESDAY TRENDED A LITTLE
WARMER AS MODELS INDICATE GOOD WARM ADVECTION AND MODERATE SOUTHWEST
WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL DRASTICALLY CHANCE
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS ONTARIO.  ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING LATE IN THE PERIOD.  AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
IT IS TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE IF ANY STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE.

HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND THEN DRASTICALLY COOL OFF FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD BEHIND COLD FRONT.  HIGHS ARE PROJECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S
AND 50S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 282100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD DESPITE AN
INCREASE IN LOW AND MID CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. INSERTED MENTION OF VCSH
AT END OF TAF PERIOD AS WIDESPREAD RAIN STARTS OVERSPREADING TAF
SITES.

WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHEASTERLY AND VEER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AROUND
SUN 15Z AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONT APPROACHES. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 12 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS















000
FXUS63 KIND 282018
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
417 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MOVES ON TO THE EAST ALLOWING A MORE ZONAL
UPPER FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL U.S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.  FINALLY SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND A LITTLE COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST.  IT
WILL BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 8 MPH WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND OF LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. BUT
EASTERN SECTIONS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER WITH LOWS NEAR 20.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  MODELS INDICATE MOST ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z AND 06Z.  OTHERWISE...REST OF THE OF THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE DRY.

MODELS MOVE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
MONDAY AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.

WENT WITH A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS.  BUT ON SUNDAY
WENT CLOSER TO COOLER MET TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  ON TUESDAY TRENDED A LITTLE
WARMER AS MODELS INDICATE GOOD WARM ADVECTION AND MODERATE SOUTHWEST
WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL DRASTICALLY CHANCE
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS ONTARIO.  ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING LATE IN THE PERIOD.  AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
IT IS TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE IF ANY STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE.

HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND THEN DRASTICALLY COOL OFF FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD BEHIND COLD FRONT.  HIGHS ARE PROJECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S
AND 50S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 282100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD DESPITE AN
INCREASE IN LOW AND MID CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. INSERTED MENTION OF VCSH
AT END OF TAF PERIOD AS WIDESPREAD RAIN STARTS OVERSPREADING TAF
SITES.

WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHEASTERLY AND VEER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AROUND
SUN 15Z AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONT APPROACHES. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 12 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 281923
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
320 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MOVES ON TO THE EAST ALLOWING A MORE ZONAL
UPPER FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL U.S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.  FINALLY SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND A LITTLE COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST.  IT
WILL BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 8 MPH WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND OF LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. BUT
EASTERN SECTIONS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER WITH LOWS NEAR 20.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  MODELS INDICATE MOST ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z AND 06Z.  OTHERWISE...REST OF THE OF THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE DRY.

MODELS MOVE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
MONDAY AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.

WENT WITH A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS.  BUT ON SUNDAY
WENT CLOSER TO COOLER MET TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  ON TUESDAY TRENDED A LITTLE
WARMER AS MODELS INDICATE GOOD WARM ADVECTION AND MODERATE SOUTHWEST
WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL DRASTICALLY CHANCE
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS ONTARIO.  ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING LATE IN THE PERIOD.  AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
IT IS TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE IF ANY STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE.

HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND THEN DRASTICALLY COOL OFF FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD BEHIND COLD FRONT.  HIGHS ARE PROJECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S
AND 50S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD DESPITE AN
INCREASE IN LOW AND MID CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. INSERTED MENTION OF VCSH
AT END OF TAF PERIOD AS WIDESPREAD RAIN STARTS OVERSPREADING TAF
SITES.

WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHEASTERLY AND VEER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AROUND
SUN 15Z AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONT APPROACHES. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 12 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 281923
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
320 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MOVES ON TO THE EAST ALLOWING A MORE ZONAL
UPPER FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL U.S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.  FINALLY SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND A LITTLE COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST.  IT
WILL BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 8 MPH WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND OF LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. BUT
EASTERN SECTIONS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER WITH LOWS NEAR 20.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  MODELS INDICATE MOST ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z AND 06Z.  OTHERWISE...REST OF THE OF THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE DRY.

MODELS MOVE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
MONDAY AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.

WENT WITH A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS.  BUT ON SUNDAY
WENT CLOSER TO COOLER MET TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  ON TUESDAY TRENDED A LITTLE
WARMER AS MODELS INDICATE GOOD WARM ADVECTION AND MODERATE SOUTHWEST
WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL DRASTICALLY CHANCE
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS ONTARIO.  ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING LATE IN THE PERIOD.  AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
IT IS TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE IF ANY STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE.

HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND THEN DRASTICALLY COOL OFF FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD BEHIND COLD FRONT.  HIGHS ARE PROJECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S
AND 50S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD DESPITE AN
INCREASE IN LOW AND MID CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. INSERTED MENTION OF VCSH
AT END OF TAF PERIOD AS WIDESPREAD RAIN STARTS OVERSPREADING TAF
SITES.

WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHEASTERLY AND VEER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AROUND
SUN 15Z AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONT APPROACHES. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 12 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 281923
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
320 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MOVES ON TO THE EAST ALLOWING A MORE ZONAL
UPPER FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL U.S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.  FINALLY SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND A LITTLE COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST.  IT
WILL BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 8 MPH WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND OF LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. BUT
EASTERN SECTIONS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER WITH LOWS NEAR 20.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  MODELS INDICATE MOST ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z AND 06Z.  OTHERWISE...REST OF THE OF THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE DRY.

MODELS MOVE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
MONDAY AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.

WENT WITH A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS.  BUT ON SUNDAY
WENT CLOSER TO COOLER MET TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  ON TUESDAY TRENDED A LITTLE
WARMER AS MODELS INDICATE GOOD WARM ADVECTION AND MODERATE SOUTHWEST
WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL DRASTICALLY CHANCE
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS ONTARIO.  ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING LATE IN THE PERIOD.  AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
IT IS TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE IF ANY STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE.

HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND THEN DRASTICALLY COOL OFF FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD BEHIND COLD FRONT.  HIGHS ARE PROJECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S
AND 50S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD DESPITE AN
INCREASE IN LOW AND MID CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. INSERTED MENTION OF VCSH
AT END OF TAF PERIOD AS WIDESPREAD RAIN STARTS OVERSPREADING TAF
SITES.

WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHEASTERLY AND VEER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AROUND
SUN 15Z AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONT APPROACHES. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 12 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 281923
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
320 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MOVES ON TO THE EAST ALLOWING A MORE ZONAL
UPPER FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL U.S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.  FINALLY SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND A LITTLE COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST.  IT
WILL BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 8 MPH WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND OF LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. BUT
EASTERN SECTIONS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER WITH LOWS NEAR 20.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  MODELS INDICATE MOST ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z AND 06Z.  OTHERWISE...REST OF THE OF THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE DRY.

MODELS MOVE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
MONDAY AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.

WENT WITH A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS.  BUT ON SUNDAY
WENT CLOSER TO COOLER MET TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  ON TUESDAY TRENDED A LITTLE
WARMER AS MODELS INDICATE GOOD WARM ADVECTION AND MODERATE SOUTHWEST
WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL DRASTICALLY CHANCE
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS ONTARIO.  ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING LATE IN THE PERIOD.  AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
IT IS TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE IF ANY STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE.

HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND THEN DRASTICALLY COOL OFF FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD BEHIND COLD FRONT.  HIGHS ARE PROJECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S
AND 50S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD DESPITE AN
INCREASE IN LOW AND MID CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. INSERTED MENTION OF VCSH
AT END OF TAF PERIOD AS WIDESPREAD RAIN STARTS OVERSPREADING TAF
SITES.

WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHEASTERLY AND VEER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AROUND
SUN 15Z AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONT APPROACHES. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 12 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 281739
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
139 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CLEAR BUT COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH NEARER SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
GRIDS.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AND ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE.

WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WEAK TO
NEUTRAL ADVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CONSENSUS NUMBERS OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT APPEARS
LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

SOME 12Z MODELS BROUGHT A STRANGELY POTENT COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON THIS...AND WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...BUT DID TWEAK TO
INCREASE THE DIURNAL RANGE SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MODELS AGREE THAT THE EXTENDED SHOULD START OFF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...WEAK SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT IT DRY. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF AN EAST COAST HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 60S PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. FINALLY...MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME IN TIMING ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. WITH THE FLOW FAST AND
QUASI-ZONAL...DIFFICULTY WITH MODELS AGREEING IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH REGIONAL BLEND PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

GOING WITH A REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING THEM ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY. WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION  WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD DESPITE AN
INCREASE IN LOW AND MID CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. INSERTED MENTION OF VCSH
AT END OF TAF PERIOD AS WIDESPREAD RAIN STARTS OVERSPREADING TAF
SITES.

WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHEASTERLY AND VEER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AROUND
SUN 15Z AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONT APPROACHES. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 12 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 281739
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
139 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CLEAR BUT COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH NEARER SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
GRIDS.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AND ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE.

WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WEAK TO
NEUTRAL ADVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CONSENSUS NUMBERS OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT APPEARS
LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

SOME 12Z MODELS BROUGHT A STRANGELY POTENT COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON THIS...AND WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...BUT DID TWEAK TO
INCREASE THE DIURNAL RANGE SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MODELS AGREE THAT THE EXTENDED SHOULD START OFF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...WEAK SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT IT DRY. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF AN EAST COAST HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 60S PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. FINALLY...MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME IN TIMING ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. WITH THE FLOW FAST AND
QUASI-ZONAL...DIFFICULTY WITH MODELS AGREEING IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH REGIONAL BLEND PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

GOING WITH A REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING THEM ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY. WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION  WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD DESPITE AN
INCREASE IN LOW AND MID CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. INSERTED MENTION OF VCSH
AT END OF TAF PERIOD AS WIDESPREAD RAIN STARTS OVERSPREADING TAF
SITES.

WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHEASTERLY AND VEER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AROUND
SUN 15Z AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONT APPROACHES. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 12 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 281739
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
139 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CLEAR BUT COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH NEARER SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
GRIDS.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AND ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE.

WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WEAK TO
NEUTRAL ADVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CONSENSUS NUMBERS OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT APPEARS
LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

SOME 12Z MODELS BROUGHT A STRANGELY POTENT COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON THIS...AND WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...BUT DID TWEAK TO
INCREASE THE DIURNAL RANGE SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MODELS AGREE THAT THE EXTENDED SHOULD START OFF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...WEAK SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT IT DRY. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF AN EAST COAST HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 60S PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. FINALLY...MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME IN TIMING ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. WITH THE FLOW FAST AND
QUASI-ZONAL...DIFFICULTY WITH MODELS AGREEING IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH REGIONAL BLEND PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

GOING WITH A REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING THEM ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY. WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION  WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD DESPITE AN
INCREASE IN LOW AND MID CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. INSERTED MENTION OF VCSH
AT END OF TAF PERIOD AS WIDESPREAD RAIN STARTS OVERSPREADING TAF
SITES.

WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHEASTERLY AND VEER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AROUND
SUN 15Z AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONT APPROACHES. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 12 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 281739
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
139 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CLEAR BUT COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH NEARER SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
GRIDS.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AND ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE.

WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WEAK TO
NEUTRAL ADVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CONSENSUS NUMBERS OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT APPEARS
LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

SOME 12Z MODELS BROUGHT A STRANGELY POTENT COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON THIS...AND WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...BUT DID TWEAK TO
INCREASE THE DIURNAL RANGE SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MODELS AGREE THAT THE EXTENDED SHOULD START OFF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...WEAK SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT IT DRY. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF AN EAST COAST HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 60S PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. FINALLY...MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME IN TIMING ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. WITH THE FLOW FAST AND
QUASI-ZONAL...DIFFICULTY WITH MODELS AGREEING IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH REGIONAL BLEND PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

GOING WITH A REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING THEM ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY. WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION  WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD DESPITE AN
INCREASE IN LOW AND MID CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. INSERTED MENTION OF VCSH
AT END OF TAF PERIOD AS WIDESPREAD RAIN STARTS OVERSPREADING TAF
SITES.

WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHEASTERLY AND VEER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AROUND
SUN 15Z AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONT APPROACHES. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 12 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 281438
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1038 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CLEAR BUT COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH NEARER SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
GRIDS.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AND ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE.

WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WEAK TO
NEUTRAL ADVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CONSENSUS NUMBERS OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT APPEARS
LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

SOME 12Z MODELS BROUGHT A STRANGELY POTENT COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON THIS...AND WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...BUT DID TWEAK TO
INCREASE THE DIURNAL RANGE SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MODELS AGREE THAT THE EXTENDED SHOULD START OFF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...WEAK SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT IT DRY. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF AN EAST COAST HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 60S PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. FINALLY...MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME IN TIMING ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. WITH THE FLOW FAST AND
QUASI-ZONAL...DIFFICULTY WITH MODELS AGREEING IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH REGIONAL BLEND PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

GOING WITH A REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING THEM ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY. WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION  WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOULD ONLY SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS ON SUNDAY.

NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SOUTH ON SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 281438
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1038 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CLEAR BUT COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH NEARER SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
GRIDS.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AND ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE.

WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WEAK TO
NEUTRAL ADVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CONSENSUS NUMBERS OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT APPEARS
LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

SOME 12Z MODELS BROUGHT A STRANGELY POTENT COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON THIS...AND WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...BUT DID TWEAK TO
INCREASE THE DIURNAL RANGE SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MODELS AGREE THAT THE EXTENDED SHOULD START OFF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...WEAK SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT IT DRY. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF AN EAST COAST HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 60S PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. FINALLY...MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME IN TIMING ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. WITH THE FLOW FAST AND
QUASI-ZONAL...DIFFICULTY WITH MODELS AGREEING IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH REGIONAL BLEND PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

GOING WITH A REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING THEM ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY. WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION  WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOULD ONLY SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS ON SUNDAY.

NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SOUTH ON SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 281438
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1038 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CLEAR BUT COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH NEARER SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
GRIDS.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AND ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE.

WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WEAK TO
NEUTRAL ADVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CONSENSUS NUMBERS OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT APPEARS
LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

SOME 12Z MODELS BROUGHT A STRANGELY POTENT COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON THIS...AND WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...BUT DID TWEAK TO
INCREASE THE DIURNAL RANGE SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MODELS AGREE THAT THE EXTENDED SHOULD START OFF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...WEAK SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT IT DRY. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF AN EAST COAST HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 60S PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. FINALLY...MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME IN TIMING ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. WITH THE FLOW FAST AND
QUASI-ZONAL...DIFFICULTY WITH MODELS AGREEING IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH REGIONAL BLEND PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

GOING WITH A REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING THEM ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY. WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION  WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOULD ONLY SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS ON SUNDAY.

NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SOUTH ON SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 281438
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1038 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CLEAR BUT COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH NEARER SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
GRIDS.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AND ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE.

WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WEAK TO
NEUTRAL ADVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CONSENSUS NUMBERS OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT APPEARS
LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

SOME 12Z MODELS BROUGHT A STRANGELY POTENT COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON THIS...AND WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...BUT DID TWEAK TO
INCREASE THE DIURNAL RANGE SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MODELS AGREE THAT THE EXTENDED SHOULD START OFF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...WEAK SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT IT DRY. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF AN EAST COAST HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 60S PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. FINALLY...MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME IN TIMING ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. WITH THE FLOW FAST AND
QUASI-ZONAL...DIFFICULTY WITH MODELS AGREEING IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH REGIONAL BLEND PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

GOING WITH A REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING THEM ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY. WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION  WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOULD ONLY SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS ON SUNDAY.

NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SOUTH ON SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 281350 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
952 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CLEAR BUT COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH NEARER SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
GRIDS.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AND ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE.

WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WEAK TO
NEUTRAL ADVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CONSENSUS NUMBERS OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT APPEARS
LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

SOME 12Z MODELS BROUGHT A STRANGELY POTENT COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON THIS...AND WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...BUT DID TWEAK TO
INCREASE THE DIURNAL RANGE SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MODELS AGREE THAT THE EXTENDED SHOULD START OFF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...WEAK SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT IT DRY. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF AN EAST COAST HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 60S PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. FINALLY...MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME IN TIMING ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. WITH THE FLOW FAST AND
QUASI-ZONAL...DIFFICULTY WITH MODELS AGREEING IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH REGIONAL BLEND PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

GOING WITH A REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING THEM ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY. WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION  WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 622 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOULD ONLY SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS ON SUNDAY.

NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SOUTH ON SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS


















000
FXUS63 KIND 281350 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
952 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CLEAR BUT COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH NEARER SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
GRIDS.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AND ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE.

WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WEAK TO
NEUTRAL ADVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CONSENSUS NUMBERS OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT APPEARS
LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

SOME 12Z MODELS BROUGHT A STRANGELY POTENT COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON THIS...AND WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...BUT DID TWEAK TO
INCREASE THE DIURNAL RANGE SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MODELS AGREE THAT THE EXTENDED SHOULD START OFF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...WEAK SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT IT DRY. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF AN EAST COAST HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 60S PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. FINALLY...MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME IN TIMING ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. WITH THE FLOW FAST AND
QUASI-ZONAL...DIFFICULTY WITH MODELS AGREEING IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH REGIONAL BLEND PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

GOING WITH A REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING THEM ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY. WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION  WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 622 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOULD ONLY SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS ON SUNDAY.

NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SOUTH ON SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 281350 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
952 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CLEAR BUT COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH NEARER SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
GRIDS.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AND ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE.

WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WEAK TO
NEUTRAL ADVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CONSENSUS NUMBERS OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT APPEARS
LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

SOME 12Z MODELS BROUGHT A STRANGELY POTENT COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON THIS...AND WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...BUT DID TWEAK TO
INCREASE THE DIURNAL RANGE SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MODELS AGREE THAT THE EXTENDED SHOULD START OFF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...WEAK SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT IT DRY. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF AN EAST COAST HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 60S PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. FINALLY...MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME IN TIMING ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. WITH THE FLOW FAST AND
QUASI-ZONAL...DIFFICULTY WITH MODELS AGREEING IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH REGIONAL BLEND PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

GOING WITH A REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING THEM ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY. WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION  WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 622 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOULD ONLY SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS ON SUNDAY.

NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SOUTH ON SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS


















000
FXUS63 KIND 281350 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
952 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CLEAR BUT COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH NEARER SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
GRIDS.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AND ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE.

WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WEAK TO
NEUTRAL ADVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CONSENSUS NUMBERS OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT APPEARS
LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

SOME 12Z MODELS BROUGHT A STRANGELY POTENT COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON THIS...AND WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...BUT DID TWEAK TO
INCREASE THE DIURNAL RANGE SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MODELS AGREE THAT THE EXTENDED SHOULD START OFF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...WEAK SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT IT DRY. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF AN EAST COAST HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 60S PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. FINALLY...MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME IN TIMING ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. WITH THE FLOW FAST AND
QUASI-ZONAL...DIFFICULTY WITH MODELS AGREEING IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH REGIONAL BLEND PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

GOING WITH A REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING THEM ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY. WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION  WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 622 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOULD ONLY SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS ON SUNDAY.

NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SOUTH ON SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

















000
FXUS63 KIND 281022 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
622 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CLEAR BUT COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH NEARER SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AND ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE.

WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WEAK TO
NEUTRAL ADVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CONSENSUS NUMBERS OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT APPEARS
LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

SOME 12Z MODELS BROUGHT A STRANGELY POTENT COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON THIS...AND WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...BUT DID TWEAK TO
INCREASE THE DIURNAL RANGE SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MODELS AGREE THAT THE EXTENDED SHOULD START OFF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...WEAK SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT IT DRY. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF AN EAST COAST HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 60S PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. FINALLY...MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME IN TIMING ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. WITH THE FLOW FAST AND
QUASI-ZONAL...DIFFICULTY WITH MODELS AGREEING IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH REGIONAL BLEND PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

GOING WITH A REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING THEM ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY. WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION  WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 622 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOULD ONLY SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS ON SUNDAY.

NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SOUTH ON SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 281022 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
622 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CLEAR BUT COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH NEARER SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AND ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE.

WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WEAK TO
NEUTRAL ADVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CONSENSUS NUMBERS OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT APPEARS
LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

SOME 12Z MODELS BROUGHT A STRANGELY POTENT COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON THIS...AND WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...BUT DID TWEAK TO
INCREASE THE DIURNAL RANGE SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MODELS AGREE THAT THE EXTENDED SHOULD START OFF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...WEAK SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT IT DRY. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF AN EAST COAST HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 60S PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. FINALLY...MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME IN TIMING ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. WITH THE FLOW FAST AND
QUASI-ZONAL...DIFFICULTY WITH MODELS AGREEING IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH REGIONAL BLEND PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

GOING WITH A REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING THEM ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY. WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION  WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 622 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOULD ONLY SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS ON SUNDAY.

NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SOUTH ON SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS















000
FXUS63 KIND 281022 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
622 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CLEAR BUT COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH NEARER SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AND ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE.

WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WEAK TO
NEUTRAL ADVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CONSENSUS NUMBERS OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT APPEARS
LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

SOME 12Z MODELS BROUGHT A STRANGELY POTENT COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON THIS...AND WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...BUT DID TWEAK TO
INCREASE THE DIURNAL RANGE SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MODELS AGREE THAT THE EXTENDED SHOULD START OFF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...WEAK SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT IT DRY. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF AN EAST COAST HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 60S PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. FINALLY...MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME IN TIMING ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. WITH THE FLOW FAST AND
QUASI-ZONAL...DIFFICULTY WITH MODELS AGREEING IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH REGIONAL BLEND PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

GOING WITH A REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING THEM ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY. WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION  WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 622 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOULD ONLY SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS ON SUNDAY.

NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SOUTH ON SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 281022 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
622 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CLEAR BUT COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH NEARER SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AND ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE.

WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WEAK TO
NEUTRAL ADVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CONSENSUS NUMBERS OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT APPEARS
LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

SOME 12Z MODELS BROUGHT A STRANGELY POTENT COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON THIS...AND WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...BUT DID TWEAK TO
INCREASE THE DIURNAL RANGE SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MODELS AGREE THAT THE EXTENDED SHOULD START OFF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...WEAK SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT IT DRY. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF AN EAST COAST HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 60S PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. FINALLY...MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME IN TIMING ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. WITH THE FLOW FAST AND
QUASI-ZONAL...DIFFICULTY WITH MODELS AGREEING IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH REGIONAL BLEND PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

GOING WITH A REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING THEM ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY. WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION  WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 622 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOULD ONLY SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS ON SUNDAY.

NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SOUTH ON SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS















000
FXUS63 KIND 280820 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
420 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CLEAR BUT COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH NEARER SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AND ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE.

WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WEAK TO
NEUTRAL ADVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CONSENSUS NUMBERS OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT APPEARS
LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

SOME 12Z MODELS BROUGHT A STRANGELY POTENT COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON THIS...AND WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...BUT DID TWEAK TO
INCREASE THE DIURNAL RANGE SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MODELS AGREE THAT THE EXTENDED SHOULD START OFF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...WEAK SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT IT DRY. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF AN EAST COAST HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 60S PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. FINALLY...MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME IN TIMING ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. WITH THE FLOW FAST AND
QUASI-ZONAL...DIFFICULTY WITH MODELS AGREEING IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH REGIONAL BLEND PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

GOING WITH A REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING THEM ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY. WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION  WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 281800Z.

SURFACE WINDS 350-020 DEGREES AT 6-9 KTS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 7
KTS OR LESS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 280820 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
420 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CLEAR BUT COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH NEARER SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AND ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE.

WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WEAK TO
NEUTRAL ADVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CONSENSUS NUMBERS OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT APPEARS
LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

SOME 12Z MODELS BROUGHT A STRANGELY POTENT COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON THIS...AND WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...BUT DID TWEAK TO
INCREASE THE DIURNAL RANGE SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MODELS AGREE THAT THE EXTENDED SHOULD START OFF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...WEAK SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT IT DRY. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF AN EAST COAST HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 60S PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. FINALLY...MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME IN TIMING ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. WITH THE FLOW FAST AND
QUASI-ZONAL...DIFFICULTY WITH MODELS AGREEING IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH REGIONAL BLEND PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

GOING WITH A REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING THEM ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY. WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION  WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 281800Z.

SURFACE WINDS 350-020 DEGREES AT 6-9 KTS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 7
KTS OR LESS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 280820 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
420 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CLEAR BUT COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH NEARER SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AND ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE.

WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WEAK TO
NEUTRAL ADVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CONSENSUS NUMBERS OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT APPEARS
LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

SOME 12Z MODELS BROUGHT A STRANGELY POTENT COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON THIS...AND WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...BUT DID TWEAK TO
INCREASE THE DIURNAL RANGE SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MODELS AGREE THAT THE EXTENDED SHOULD START OFF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...WEAK SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT IT DRY. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF AN EAST COAST HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 60S PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. FINALLY...MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME IN TIMING ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. WITH THE FLOW FAST AND
QUASI-ZONAL...DIFFICULTY WITH MODELS AGREEING IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH REGIONAL BLEND PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

GOING WITH A REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING THEM ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY. WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION  WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 281800Z.

SURFACE WINDS 350-020 DEGREES AT 6-9 KTS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 7
KTS OR LESS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 280804 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CLEAR BUT COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH NEARER SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AND ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE.

WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WEAK TO
NEUTRAL ADVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CONSENSUS NUMBERS OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT APPEARS
LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

SOME 12Z MODELS BROUGHT A STRANGELY POTENT COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON THIS...AND WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...BUT DID TWEAK TO
INCREASE THE DIURNAL RANGE SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MODELS AGREE THAT THE EXTENDED SHOULD START OFF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...WEAK SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT IT DRY. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF AN EAST COAST HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 60S PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. FINALLY...MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME IN TIMING ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. WITH THE FLOW FAST AND
QUASI-ZONAL...DIFFICULTY WITH MODELS AGREEING IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH REGIONAL BLEND PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

GOING WITH A REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING THEM ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY. WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION  WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 281800Z.

SURFACE WINDS 350-020 DEGREES AT 6-9 KTS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 7
KTS OR LESS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 280804 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CLEAR BUT COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH NEARER SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AND ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE.

WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WEAK TO
NEUTRAL ADVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CONSENSUS NUMBERS OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT APPEARS
LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

SOME 12Z MODELS BROUGHT A STRANGELY POTENT COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON THIS...AND WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...BUT DID TWEAK TO
INCREASE THE DIURNAL RANGE SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MODELS AGREE THAT THE EXTENDED SHOULD START OFF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...WEAK SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT IT DRY. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF AN EAST COAST HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 60S PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. FINALLY...MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME IN TIMING ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. WITH THE FLOW FAST AND
QUASI-ZONAL...DIFFICULTY WITH MODELS AGREEING IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH REGIONAL BLEND PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

GOING WITH A REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING THEM ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY. WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION  WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 281800Z.

SURFACE WINDS 350-020 DEGREES AT 6-9 KTS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 7
KTS OR LESS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 280804 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CLEAR BUT COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH NEARER SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AND ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE.

WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WEAK TO
NEUTRAL ADVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CONSENSUS NUMBERS OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT APPEARS
LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

SOME 12Z MODELS BROUGHT A STRANGELY POTENT COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON THIS...AND WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...BUT DID TWEAK TO
INCREASE THE DIURNAL RANGE SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MODELS AGREE THAT THE EXTENDED SHOULD START OFF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...WEAK SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT IT DRY. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF AN EAST COAST HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 60S PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. FINALLY...MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME IN TIMING ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. WITH THE FLOW FAST AND
QUASI-ZONAL...DIFFICULTY WITH MODELS AGREEING IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH REGIONAL BLEND PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

GOING WITH A REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING THEM ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY. WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION  WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 281800Z.

SURFACE WINDS 350-020 DEGREES AT 6-9 KTS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 7
KTS OR LESS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 280804 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CLEAR BUT COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH NEARER SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AND ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE.

WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WEAK TO
NEUTRAL ADVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CONSENSUS NUMBERS OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT APPEARS
LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

SOME 12Z MODELS BROUGHT A STRANGELY POTENT COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON THIS...AND WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...BUT DID TWEAK TO
INCREASE THE DIURNAL RANGE SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MODELS AGREE THAT THE EXTENDED SHOULD START OFF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...WEAK SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT IT DRY. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF AN EAST COAST HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 60S PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. FINALLY...MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME IN TIMING ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. WITH THE FLOW FAST AND
QUASI-ZONAL...DIFFICULTY WITH MODELS AGREEING IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH REGIONAL BLEND PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

GOING WITH A REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING THEM ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY. WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION  WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 281800Z.

SURFACE WINDS 350-020 DEGREES AT 6-9 KTS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 7
KTS OR LESS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 280800
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A CLEAR BUT COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH NEARER SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AND ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE.

WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WEAK TO
NEUTRAL ADVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CONSENSUS NUMBERS OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT APPEARS
LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

SOME 12Z MODELS BROUGHT A STRANGELY POTENT COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON THIS...AND WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...BUT DID TWEAK TO
INCREASE THE DIURNAL RANGE SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MODELS AGREE THAT THE EXTENDED SHOULD START OFF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...WEAK SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT IT DRY. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF AN EAST COAST HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 60S PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. FINALLY...MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME IN TIMING ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. WITH THE FLOW FAST AND
QUASI-ZONAL...DIFFICULTY WITH MODELS AGREEING IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH REGIONAL BLEND PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

GOING WITH A REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING THEM ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY. WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION  WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 281800Z.

SURFACE WINDS 350-020 DEGREES AT 6-9 KTS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 7
KTS OR LESS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 280800
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A CLEAR BUT COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH NEARER SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AND ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE.

WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WEAK TO
NEUTRAL ADVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CONSENSUS NUMBERS OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT APPEARS
LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

SOME 12Z MODELS BROUGHT A STRANGELY POTENT COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON THIS...AND WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...BUT DID TWEAK TO
INCREASE THE DIURNAL RANGE SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MODELS AGREE THAT THE EXTENDED SHOULD START OFF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...WEAK SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT IT DRY. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF AN EAST COAST HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 60S PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. FINALLY...MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME IN TIMING ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. WITH THE FLOW FAST AND
QUASI-ZONAL...DIFFICULTY WITH MODELS AGREEING IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH REGIONAL BLEND PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

GOING WITH A REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING THEM ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY. WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION  WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 281800Z.

SURFACE WINDS 350-020 DEGREES AT 6-9 KTS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 7
KTS OR LESS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 280800
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A CLEAR BUT COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH NEARER SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AND ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE.

WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WEAK TO
NEUTRAL ADVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CONSENSUS NUMBERS OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT APPEARS
LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

SOME 12Z MODELS BROUGHT A STRANGELY POTENT COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON THIS...AND WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...BUT DID TWEAK TO
INCREASE THE DIURNAL RANGE SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MODELS AGREE THAT THE EXTENDED SHOULD START OFF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...WEAK SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT IT DRY. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF AN EAST COAST HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 60S PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. FINALLY...MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME IN TIMING ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. WITH THE FLOW FAST AND
QUASI-ZONAL...DIFFICULTY WITH MODELS AGREEING IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH REGIONAL BLEND PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

GOING WITH A REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING THEM ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY. WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION  WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 281800Z.

SURFACE WINDS 350-020 DEGREES AT 6-9 KTS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 7
KTS OR LESS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 280722
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
322 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
PRODUCE NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST
AND A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETS UP.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY 7.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 941 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ARE HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
LONGER THE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HOWEVER SATELLITE AND RADAR DO SHOW
THAT THE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ARE DIMINISHING STEADILY. THUS JUST
KEPT THE CLOUDS/FLURRIES IN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...WITH COVERAGE
DIMINISHING EACH HOUR.

OVERNIGHT STILL LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THE DELAYED CLEARING AND
WINDS REMAINING UP A BIT MORE COULD LEAD TO LOW TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO BUMPED THEM UP A BIT
WHERE NEEDED. OVERALL THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR RECORD
VALUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BUILD TOWARDS INDIANA BY SATURDAY. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR REGION.  BUT WITH
SUNSET CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.  WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING A LITTLE SOME AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT BY LATE TONIGHT
ALL AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR.  LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR RECORD VALUES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS.  GIVEN THE LATE
MARCH SUNSHINE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO
THE LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STILL A MOS BLEND IN THE LOWER 20S STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY WE CAN EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THEY END ANY CHANCES OF RAIN BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS THEN MOVE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME MODELS HINT AT PATCHY FOG LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT NEAR 60
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MODELS AGREE THAT THE EXTENDED SHOULD START OFF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...WEAK SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT IT DRY. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF AN EAST COAST HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 60S PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. FINALLY...MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME IN TIMING ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. WITH THE FLOW FAST AND
QUASI-ZONAL...DIFFICULTY WITH MODELS AGREEING IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH REGIONAL BLEND PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

GOING WITH A REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING THEM ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY. WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION  WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 281800Z.

SURFACE WINDS 350-020 DEGREES AT 6-9 KTS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 7
KTS OR LESS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS


















000
FXUS63 KIND 280400
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1200 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
PRODUCE NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST
AND A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETS UP.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY 7.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 941 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ARE HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
LONGER THE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HOWEVER SATELLITE AND RADAR DO SHOW
THAT THE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ARE DIMINISHING STEADILY. THUS JUST
KEPT THE CLOUDS/FLURRIES IN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...WITH COVERAGE
DIMINISHING EACH HOUR.

OVERNIGHT STILL LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THE DELAYED CLEARING AND
WINDS REMAINING UP A BIT MORE COULD LEAD TO LOW TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO BUMPED THEM UP A BIT
WHERE NEEDED. OVERALL THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR RECORD
VALUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BUILD TOWARDS INDIANA BY SATURDAY. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR REGION.  BUT WITH
SUNSET CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.  WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING A LITTLE SOME AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT BY LATE TONIGHT
ALL AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR.  LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR RECORD VALUES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS.  GIVEN THE LATE
MARCH SUNSHINE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO
THE LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STILL A MOS BLEND IN THE LOWER 20S STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY WE CAN EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THEY END ANY CHANCES OF RAIN BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS THEN MOVE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME MODELS HINT AT PATCHY FOG LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT NEAR 60
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH...WINDS STRENGTHEN
TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN TO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. THUS...REMOVED POP MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER DRASTICALLY. 00Z EURO DIGS THE UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...DROPPING THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. 12Z GFS HOWEVER
SPREADS THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO BE DRAPED EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STUCK CLOSE TO THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION DURING THIS PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY...WHICH
INCLUDES INCREASED POP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OWING TO WAA
SHOWERS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOUNDARY. THE 00Z
EURO IS APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND IMPACTS.
WITH SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...CURRENTLY EXPECT THUNDER AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR FRIDAY...00Z EURO
BRINGS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS OCCURRING AND THE 12Z GFS
DIFFERS...FILTERING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. DECIDED TO DROP POPS FROM CHANCE INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY SINCE CONFIDENCE IN EURO SOLUTION NOT HIGH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S CHARACTERIZE THE
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 281800Z.

SURFACE WINDS 350-020 DEGREES AT 6-9 KTS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 7
KTS OR LESS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS















000
FXUS63 KIND 280400
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1200 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
PRODUCE NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST
AND A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETS UP.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY 7.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 941 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ARE HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
LONGER THE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HOWEVER SATELLITE AND RADAR DO SHOW
THAT THE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ARE DIMINISHING STEADILY. THUS JUST
KEPT THE CLOUDS/FLURRIES IN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...WITH COVERAGE
DIMINISHING EACH HOUR.

OVERNIGHT STILL LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THE DELAYED CLEARING AND
WINDS REMAINING UP A BIT MORE COULD LEAD TO LOW TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO BUMPED THEM UP A BIT
WHERE NEEDED. OVERALL THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR RECORD
VALUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BUILD TOWARDS INDIANA BY SATURDAY. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR REGION.  BUT WITH
SUNSET CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.  WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING A LITTLE SOME AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT BY LATE TONIGHT
ALL AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR.  LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR RECORD VALUES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS.  GIVEN THE LATE
MARCH SUNSHINE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO
THE LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STILL A MOS BLEND IN THE LOWER 20S STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY WE CAN EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THEY END ANY CHANCES OF RAIN BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS THEN MOVE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME MODELS HINT AT PATCHY FOG LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT NEAR 60
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH...WINDS STRENGTHEN
TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN TO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. THUS...REMOVED POP MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER DRASTICALLY. 00Z EURO DIGS THE UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...DROPPING THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. 12Z GFS HOWEVER
SPREADS THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO BE DRAPED EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STUCK CLOSE TO THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION DURING THIS PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY...WHICH
INCLUDES INCREASED POP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OWING TO WAA
SHOWERS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOUNDARY. THE 00Z
EURO IS APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND IMPACTS.
WITH SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...CURRENTLY EXPECT THUNDER AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR FRIDAY...00Z EURO
BRINGS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS OCCURRING AND THE 12Z GFS
DIFFERS...FILTERING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. DECIDED TO DROP POPS FROM CHANCE INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY SINCE CONFIDENCE IN EURO SOLUTION NOT HIGH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S CHARACTERIZE THE
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 281800Z.

SURFACE WINDS 350-020 DEGREES AT 6-9 KTS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 7
KTS OR LESS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 280400
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1200 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
PRODUCE NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST
AND A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETS UP.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY 7.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 941 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ARE HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
LONGER THE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HOWEVER SATELLITE AND RADAR DO SHOW
THAT THE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ARE DIMINISHING STEADILY. THUS JUST
KEPT THE CLOUDS/FLURRIES IN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...WITH COVERAGE
DIMINISHING EACH HOUR.

OVERNIGHT STILL LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THE DELAYED CLEARING AND
WINDS REMAINING UP A BIT MORE COULD LEAD TO LOW TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO BUMPED THEM UP A BIT
WHERE NEEDED. OVERALL THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR RECORD
VALUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BUILD TOWARDS INDIANA BY SATURDAY. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR REGION.  BUT WITH
SUNSET CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.  WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING A LITTLE SOME AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT BY LATE TONIGHT
ALL AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR.  LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR RECORD VALUES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS.  GIVEN THE LATE
MARCH SUNSHINE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO
THE LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STILL A MOS BLEND IN THE LOWER 20S STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY WE CAN EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THEY END ANY CHANCES OF RAIN BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS THEN MOVE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME MODELS HINT AT PATCHY FOG LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT NEAR 60
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH...WINDS STRENGTHEN
TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN TO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. THUS...REMOVED POP MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER DRASTICALLY. 00Z EURO DIGS THE UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...DROPPING THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. 12Z GFS HOWEVER
SPREADS THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO BE DRAPED EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STUCK CLOSE TO THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION DURING THIS PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY...WHICH
INCLUDES INCREASED POP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OWING TO WAA
SHOWERS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOUNDARY. THE 00Z
EURO IS APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND IMPACTS.
WITH SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...CURRENTLY EXPECT THUNDER AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR FRIDAY...00Z EURO
BRINGS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS OCCURRING AND THE 12Z GFS
DIFFERS...FILTERING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. DECIDED TO DROP POPS FROM CHANCE INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY SINCE CONFIDENCE IN EURO SOLUTION NOT HIGH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S CHARACTERIZE THE
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 281800Z.

SURFACE WINDS 350-020 DEGREES AT 6-9 KTS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 7
KTS OR LESS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS















000
FXUS63 KIND 280400
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1200 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
PRODUCE NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST
AND A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETS UP.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY 7.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 941 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ARE HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
LONGER THE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HOWEVER SATELLITE AND RADAR DO SHOW
THAT THE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ARE DIMINISHING STEADILY. THUS JUST
KEPT THE CLOUDS/FLURRIES IN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...WITH COVERAGE
DIMINISHING EACH HOUR.

OVERNIGHT STILL LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THE DELAYED CLEARING AND
WINDS REMAINING UP A BIT MORE COULD LEAD TO LOW TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO BUMPED THEM UP A BIT
WHERE NEEDED. OVERALL THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR RECORD
VALUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BUILD TOWARDS INDIANA BY SATURDAY. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR REGION.  BUT WITH
SUNSET CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.  WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING A LITTLE SOME AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT BY LATE TONIGHT
ALL AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR.  LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR RECORD VALUES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS.  GIVEN THE LATE
MARCH SUNSHINE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO
THE LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STILL A MOS BLEND IN THE LOWER 20S STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY WE CAN EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THEY END ANY CHANCES OF RAIN BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS THEN MOVE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME MODELS HINT AT PATCHY FOG LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT NEAR 60
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH...WINDS STRENGTHEN
TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN TO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. THUS...REMOVED POP MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER DRASTICALLY. 00Z EURO DIGS THE UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...DROPPING THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. 12Z GFS HOWEVER
SPREADS THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO BE DRAPED EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STUCK CLOSE TO THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION DURING THIS PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY...WHICH
INCLUDES INCREASED POP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OWING TO WAA
SHOWERS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOUNDARY. THE 00Z
EURO IS APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND IMPACTS.
WITH SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...CURRENTLY EXPECT THUNDER AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR FRIDAY...00Z EURO
BRINGS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS OCCURRING AND THE 12Z GFS
DIFFERS...FILTERING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. DECIDED TO DROP POPS FROM CHANCE INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY SINCE CONFIDENCE IN EURO SOLUTION NOT HIGH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S CHARACTERIZE THE
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 281800Z.

SURFACE WINDS 350-020 DEGREES AT 6-9 KTS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 7
KTS OR LESS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 280221
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
PRODUCE NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST
AND A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETS UP.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY 7.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 941 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ARE HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
LONGER THE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HOWEVER SATELLITE AND RADAR DO SHOW
THAT THE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ARE DIMINISHING STEADILY. THUS JUST
KEPT THE CLOUDS/FLURRIES IN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...WITH COVERAGE
DIMINISHING EACH HOUR.

OVERNIGHT STILL LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THE DELAYED CLEARING AND
WINDS REMAINING UP A BIT MORE COULD LEAD TO LOW TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO BUMPED THEM UP A BIT
WHERE NEEDED. OVERALL THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR RECORD
VALUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BUILD TOWARDS INDIANA BY SATURDAY. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR REGION.  BUT WITH
SUNSET CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.  WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING A LITTLE SOME AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT BY LATE TONIGHT
ALL AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR.  LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR RECORD VALUES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS.  GIVEN THE LATE
MARCH SUNSHINE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO
THE LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STILL A MOS BLEND IN THE LOWER 20S STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY WE CAN EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THEY END ANY CHANCES OF RAIN BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS THEN MOVE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME MODELS HINT AT PATCHY FOG LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT NEAR 60
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH...WINDS STRENGTHEN
TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN TO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. THUS...REMOVED POP MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER DRASTICALLY. 00Z EURO DIGS THE UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...DROPPING THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. 12Z GFS HOWEVER
SPREADS THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO BE DRAPED EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STUCK CLOSE TO THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION DURING THIS PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY...WHICH
INCLUDES INCREASED POP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OWING TO WAA
SHOWERS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOUNDARY. THE 00Z
EURO IS APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND IMPACTS.
WITH SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...CURRENTLY EXPECT THUNDER AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR FRIDAY...00Z EURO
BRINGS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS OCCURRING AND THE 12Z GFS
DIFFERS...FILTERING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. DECIDED TO DROP POPS FROM CHANCE INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY SINCE CONFIDENCE IN EURO SOLUTION NOT HIGH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S CHARACTERIZE THE
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO END AROUND SUNSET. ANY IMPACT ON CEILING OR VISIBILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF OR NEGLIGIBLE.

VFR CEILINGS AROUND 050 EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY THE LATE EVENING
HOURS.

LINGERING SURFACE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT
WINDS GENERALLY 350-020 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 280221
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
PRODUCE NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST
AND A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETS UP.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY 7.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 941 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ARE HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
LONGER THE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HOWEVER SATELLITE AND RADAR DO SHOW
THAT THE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ARE DIMINISHING STEADILY. THUS JUST
KEPT THE CLOUDS/FLURRIES IN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...WITH COVERAGE
DIMINISHING EACH HOUR.

OVERNIGHT STILL LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THE DELAYED CLEARING AND
WINDS REMAINING UP A BIT MORE COULD LEAD TO LOW TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO BUMPED THEM UP A BIT
WHERE NEEDED. OVERALL THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR RECORD
VALUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BUILD TOWARDS INDIANA BY SATURDAY. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR REGION.  BUT WITH
SUNSET CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.  WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING A LITTLE SOME AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT BY LATE TONIGHT
ALL AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR.  LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR RECORD VALUES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS.  GIVEN THE LATE
MARCH SUNSHINE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO
THE LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STILL A MOS BLEND IN THE LOWER 20S STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY WE CAN EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THEY END ANY CHANCES OF RAIN BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS THEN MOVE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME MODELS HINT AT PATCHY FOG LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT NEAR 60
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH...WINDS STRENGTHEN
TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN TO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. THUS...REMOVED POP MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER DRASTICALLY. 00Z EURO DIGS THE UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...DROPPING THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. 12Z GFS HOWEVER
SPREADS THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO BE DRAPED EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STUCK CLOSE TO THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION DURING THIS PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY...WHICH
INCLUDES INCREASED POP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OWING TO WAA
SHOWERS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOUNDARY. THE 00Z
EURO IS APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND IMPACTS.
WITH SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...CURRENTLY EXPECT THUNDER AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR FRIDAY...00Z EURO
BRINGS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS OCCURRING AND THE 12Z GFS
DIFFERS...FILTERING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. DECIDED TO DROP POPS FROM CHANCE INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY SINCE CONFIDENCE IN EURO SOLUTION NOT HIGH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S CHARACTERIZE THE
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO END AROUND SUNSET. ANY IMPACT ON CEILING OR VISIBILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF OR NEGLIGIBLE.

VFR CEILINGS AROUND 050 EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY THE LATE EVENING
HOURS.

LINGERING SURFACE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT
WINDS GENERALLY 350-020 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 280141
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
941 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
PRODUCE NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST
AND A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETS UP.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY 7.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 941 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ARE HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
LONGER THE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HOWEVER SATELLITE AND RADAR DO SHOW
THAT THE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ARE DIMINISHING STEADILY. THUS JUST
KEPT THE CLOUDS/FLURRIES IN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...WITH COVERAGE
DIMINISHING EACH HOUR.

OVERNIGHT STILL LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THE DELAYED CLEARING AND
WINDS REMAINING UP A BIT MORE COULD LEAD TO LOW TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO BUMPED THEM UP A BIT
WHERE NEEDED. OVERALL THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR RECORD
VALUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BUILD TOWARDS INDIANA BY SATURDAY. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR REGION.  BUT WITH
SUNSET CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.  WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING A LITTLE SOME AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT BY LATE TONIGHT
ALL AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR.  LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR RECORD VALUES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS.  GIVEN THE LATE
MARCH SUNSHINE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO
THE LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STILL A MOS BLEND IN THE LOWER 20S STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY WE CAN EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THEY END ANY CHANCES OF RAIN BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS THEN MOVE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME MODELS HINT AT PATCHY FOG LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT NEAR 60
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH...WINDS STRENGTHEN
TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN TO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. THUS...REMOVED POP MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER DRASTICALLY. 00Z EURO DIGS THE UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...DROPPING THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. 12Z GFS HOWEVER
SPREADS THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO BE DRAPED EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STUCK CLOSE TO THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION DURING THIS PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY...WHICH
INCLUDES INCREASED POP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OWING TO WAA
SHOWERS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOUNDARY. THE 00Z
EURO IS APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND IMPACTS.
WITH SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...CURRENTLY EXPECT THUNDER AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR FRIDAY...00Z EURO
BRINGS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS OCCURRING AND THE 12Z GFS
DIFFERS...FILTERING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. DECIDED TO DROP POPS FROM CHANCE INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY SINCE CONFIDENCE IN EURO SOLUTION NOT HIGH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S CHARACTERIZE THE
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 634 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO END AROUND SUNSET. ANY IMPACT ON CEILING OR VISIBILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF OR NEGLIGIBLE.

VFR CEILINGS AROUND 050 EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY THE LATE EVENING
HOURS.

LINGERING SURFACE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT
WINDS GENERALLY 350-020 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 280141
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
941 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
PRODUCE NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST
AND A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETS UP.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY 7.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 941 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ARE HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
LONGER THE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HOWEVER SATELLITE AND RADAR DO SHOW
THAT THE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ARE DIMINISHING STEADILY. THUS JUST
KEPT THE CLOUDS/FLURRIES IN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...WITH COVERAGE
DIMINISHING EACH HOUR.

OVERNIGHT STILL LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THE DELAYED CLEARING AND
WINDS REMAINING UP A BIT MORE COULD LEAD TO LOW TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO BUMPED THEM UP A BIT
WHERE NEEDED. OVERALL THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR RECORD
VALUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BUILD TOWARDS INDIANA BY SATURDAY. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR REGION.  BUT WITH
SUNSET CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.  WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING A LITTLE SOME AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT BY LATE TONIGHT
ALL AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR.  LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR RECORD VALUES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS.  GIVEN THE LATE
MARCH SUNSHINE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO
THE LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STILL A MOS BLEND IN THE LOWER 20S STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY WE CAN EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THEY END ANY CHANCES OF RAIN BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS THEN MOVE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME MODELS HINT AT PATCHY FOG LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT NEAR 60
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH...WINDS STRENGTHEN
TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN TO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. THUS...REMOVED POP MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER DRASTICALLY. 00Z EURO DIGS THE UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...DROPPING THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. 12Z GFS HOWEVER
SPREADS THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO BE DRAPED EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STUCK CLOSE TO THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION DURING THIS PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY...WHICH
INCLUDES INCREASED POP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OWING TO WAA
SHOWERS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOUNDARY. THE 00Z
EURO IS APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND IMPACTS.
WITH SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...CURRENTLY EXPECT THUNDER AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR FRIDAY...00Z EURO
BRINGS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS OCCURRING AND THE 12Z GFS
DIFFERS...FILTERING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. DECIDED TO DROP POPS FROM CHANCE INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY SINCE CONFIDENCE IN EURO SOLUTION NOT HIGH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S CHARACTERIZE THE
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 634 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO END AROUND SUNSET. ANY IMPACT ON CEILING OR VISIBILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF OR NEGLIGIBLE.

VFR CEILINGS AROUND 050 EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY THE LATE EVENING
HOURS.

LINGERING SURFACE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT
WINDS GENERALLY 350-020 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 272236
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
634 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
PRODUCE NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST
AND A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETS UP.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY 7.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BUILD TOWARDS INDIANA BY SATURDAY. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR REGION.  BUT WITH
SUNSET CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.  WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING A LITTLE SOME AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT BY LATE TONIGHT
ALL AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR.  LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR RECORD VALUES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS.  GIVEN THE LATE
MARCH SUNSHINE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO
THE LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STILL A MOS BLEND IN THE LOWER 20S STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY WE CAN EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THEY END ANY CHANCES OF RAIN BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS THEN MOVE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME MODELS HINT AT PATCHY FOG LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT NEAR 60
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH...WINDS STRENGTHEN
TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN TO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. THUS...REMOVED POP MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER DRASTICALLY. 00Z EURO DIGS THE UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...DROPPING THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. 12Z GFS HOWEVER
SPREADS THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO BE DRAPED EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STUCK CLOSE TO THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION DURING THIS PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY...WHICH
INCLUDES INCREASED POP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OWING TO WAA
SHOWERS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOUNDARY. THE 00Z
EURO IS APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND IMPACTS.
WITH SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...CURRENTLY EXPECT THUNDER AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR FRIDAY...00Z EURO
BRINGS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS OCCURRING AND THE 12Z GFS
DIFFERS...FILTERING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. DECIDED TO DROP POPS FROM CHANCE INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY SINCE CONFIDENCE IN EURO SOLUTION NOT HIGH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S CHARACTERIZE THE
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 634 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO END AROUND SUNSET. ANY IMPACT ON CEILING OR VISIBILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF OR NEGLIGIBLE.

VFR CEILINGS AROUND 050 EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY THE LATE EVENING
HOURS.

LINGERING SURFACE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT
WINDS GENERALLY 350-020 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 272236
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
634 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
PRODUCE NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST
AND A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETS UP.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY 7.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BUILD TOWARDS INDIANA BY SATURDAY. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR REGION.  BUT WITH
SUNSET CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.  WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING A LITTLE SOME AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT BY LATE TONIGHT
ALL AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR.  LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR RECORD VALUES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS.  GIVEN THE LATE
MARCH SUNSHINE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO
THE LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STILL A MOS BLEND IN THE LOWER 20S STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY WE CAN EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THEY END ANY CHANCES OF RAIN BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS THEN MOVE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME MODELS HINT AT PATCHY FOG LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT NEAR 60
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH...WINDS STRENGTHEN
TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN TO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. THUS...REMOVED POP MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER DRASTICALLY. 00Z EURO DIGS THE UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...DROPPING THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. 12Z GFS HOWEVER
SPREADS THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO BE DRAPED EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STUCK CLOSE TO THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION DURING THIS PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY...WHICH
INCLUDES INCREASED POP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OWING TO WAA
SHOWERS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOUNDARY. THE 00Z
EURO IS APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND IMPACTS.
WITH SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...CURRENTLY EXPECT THUNDER AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR FRIDAY...00Z EURO
BRINGS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS OCCURRING AND THE 12Z GFS
DIFFERS...FILTERING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. DECIDED TO DROP POPS FROM CHANCE INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY SINCE CONFIDENCE IN EURO SOLUTION NOT HIGH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S CHARACTERIZE THE
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 634 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO END AROUND SUNSET. ANY IMPACT ON CEILING OR VISIBILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF OR NEGLIGIBLE.

VFR CEILINGS AROUND 050 EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY THE LATE EVENING
HOURS.

LINGERING SURFACE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT
WINDS GENERALLY 350-020 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 272236
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
634 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
PRODUCE NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST
AND A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETS UP.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY 7.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BUILD TOWARDS INDIANA BY SATURDAY. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR REGION.  BUT WITH
SUNSET CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.  WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING A LITTLE SOME AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT BY LATE TONIGHT
ALL AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR.  LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR RECORD VALUES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS.  GIVEN THE LATE
MARCH SUNSHINE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO
THE LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STILL A MOS BLEND IN THE LOWER 20S STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY WE CAN EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THEY END ANY CHANCES OF RAIN BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS THEN MOVE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME MODELS HINT AT PATCHY FOG LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT NEAR 60
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH...WINDS STRENGTHEN
TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN TO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. THUS...REMOVED POP MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER DRASTICALLY. 00Z EURO DIGS THE UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...DROPPING THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. 12Z GFS HOWEVER
SPREADS THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO BE DRAPED EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STUCK CLOSE TO THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION DURING THIS PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY...WHICH
INCLUDES INCREASED POP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OWING TO WAA
SHOWERS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOUNDARY. THE 00Z
EURO IS APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND IMPACTS.
WITH SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...CURRENTLY EXPECT THUNDER AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR FRIDAY...00Z EURO
BRINGS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS OCCURRING AND THE 12Z GFS
DIFFERS...FILTERING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. DECIDED TO DROP POPS FROM CHANCE INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY SINCE CONFIDENCE IN EURO SOLUTION NOT HIGH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S CHARACTERIZE THE
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 634 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO END AROUND SUNSET. ANY IMPACT ON CEILING OR VISIBILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF OR NEGLIGIBLE.

VFR CEILINGS AROUND 050 EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY THE LATE EVENING
HOURS.

LINGERING SURFACE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT
WINDS GENERALLY 350-020 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 272236
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
634 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
PRODUCE NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST
AND A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETS UP.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY 7.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BUILD TOWARDS INDIANA BY SATURDAY. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR REGION.  BUT WITH
SUNSET CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.  WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING A LITTLE SOME AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT BY LATE TONIGHT
ALL AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR.  LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR RECORD VALUES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS.  GIVEN THE LATE
MARCH SUNSHINE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO
THE LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STILL A MOS BLEND IN THE LOWER 20S STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY WE CAN EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THEY END ANY CHANCES OF RAIN BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS THEN MOVE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME MODELS HINT AT PATCHY FOG LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT NEAR 60
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH...WINDS STRENGTHEN
TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN TO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. THUS...REMOVED POP MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER DRASTICALLY. 00Z EURO DIGS THE UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...DROPPING THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. 12Z GFS HOWEVER
SPREADS THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO BE DRAPED EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STUCK CLOSE TO THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION DURING THIS PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY...WHICH
INCLUDES INCREASED POP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OWING TO WAA
SHOWERS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOUNDARY. THE 00Z
EURO IS APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND IMPACTS.
WITH SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...CURRENTLY EXPECT THUNDER AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR FRIDAY...00Z EURO
BRINGS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS OCCURRING AND THE 12Z GFS
DIFFERS...FILTERING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. DECIDED TO DROP POPS FROM CHANCE INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY SINCE CONFIDENCE IN EURO SOLUTION NOT HIGH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S CHARACTERIZE THE
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 634 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO END AROUND SUNSET. ANY IMPACT ON CEILING OR VISIBILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF OR NEGLIGIBLE.

VFR CEILINGS AROUND 050 EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY THE LATE EVENING
HOURS.

LINGERING SURFACE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT
WINDS GENERALLY 350-020 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 272022
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
419 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
419 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
PRODUCE NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST
AND A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETS UP.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY 7.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BUILD TOWARDS INDIANA BY SATURDAY. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR REGION.  BUT WITH
SUNSET CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.  WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING A LITTLE SOME AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT BY LATE TONIGHT
ALL AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR.  LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR RECORD VALUES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS.  GIVEN THE LATE
MARCH SUNSHINE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO
THE LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STILL A MOS BLEND IN THE LOWER 20S STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY WE CAN EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THEY END ANY CHANCES OF RAIN BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS THEN MOVE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME MODELS HINT AT PATCHY FOG LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT NEAR 60
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH...WINDS STRENGTHEN
TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN TO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. THUS...REMOVED POP MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER DRASTICALLY. 00Z EURO DIGS THE UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...DROPPING THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. 12Z GFS HOWEVER
SPREADS THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO BE DRAPED EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STUCK CLOSE TO THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION DURING THIS PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY...WHICH
INCLUDES INCREASED POP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OWING TO WAA
SHOWERS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOUNDARY. THE 00Z
EURO IS APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND IMPACTS.
WITH SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...CURRENTLY EXPECT THUNDER AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR FRIDAY...00Z EURO
BRINGS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS OCCURRING AND THE 12Z GFS
DIFFERS...FILTERING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. DECIDED TO DROP POPS FROM CHANCE INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY SINCE CONFIDENCE IN EURO SOLUTION NOT HIGH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S CHARACTERIZE THE
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 272100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN PROGRESS IN THE VICINITY OF
KIND...BUT APPEARS ANY IMPACT ON CEILING OR VISIBILITY WILL BE BRIEF
OR NEGLIGIBLE. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH SUNSET.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO KEEP ALL SITES VFR AS WE
HAVE SEEN SOME UPWARD MOVEMENT IN THE CEILING THUS FAR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENTLY GUSTING YET SO DECIDED TO
BACK OFF ON THE GUSTS FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS...STAYING WITH SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 13 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 18/1900Z. THEN THE
GUSTS WILL BE REINSTATED. ALSO...DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES CROSS THE TAF SITES. THESE ARE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO
TIME FOR ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE AND FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN HERE AT
IND...THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH MOST VISIBILITIES REMAINING
AT OR ABOVE 6 SM. LAF WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THAT
AS VISIBILITIES HAVE RECENTLY DROPPED AS LOW AS 2SM...BUT CONTINUE
TO BOUNCE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 SM. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH THAT THE LOW
VSBYS WILL CONTINUE. CURRENTLY...DO NOT PLAN ON INCLUDING IN LAF TAF.

EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AND REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO 5 TO 10 KNOT
WINDS FOR SATURDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...MRD/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 272022
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
419 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
419 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
PRODUCE NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST
AND A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETS UP.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY 7.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BUILD TOWARDS INDIANA BY SATURDAY. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR REGION.  BUT WITH
SUNSET CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.  WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING A LITTLE SOME AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT BY LATE TONIGHT
ALL AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR.  LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR RECORD VALUES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS.  GIVEN THE LATE
MARCH SUNSHINE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO
THE LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STILL A MOS BLEND IN THE LOWER 20S STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY WE CAN EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THEY END ANY CHANCES OF RAIN BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS THEN MOVE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME MODELS HINT AT PATCHY FOG LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT NEAR 60
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH...WINDS STRENGTHEN
TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN TO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. THUS...REMOVED POP MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER DRASTICALLY. 00Z EURO DIGS THE UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...DROPPING THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. 12Z GFS HOWEVER
SPREADS THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO BE DRAPED EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STUCK CLOSE TO THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION DURING THIS PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY...WHICH
INCLUDES INCREASED POP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OWING TO WAA
SHOWERS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOUNDARY. THE 00Z
EURO IS APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND IMPACTS.
WITH SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...CURRENTLY EXPECT THUNDER AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR FRIDAY...00Z EURO
BRINGS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS OCCURRING AND THE 12Z GFS
DIFFERS...FILTERING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. DECIDED TO DROP POPS FROM CHANCE INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY SINCE CONFIDENCE IN EURO SOLUTION NOT HIGH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S CHARACTERIZE THE
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 272100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN PROGRESS IN THE VICINITY OF
KIND...BUT APPEARS ANY IMPACT ON CEILING OR VISIBILITY WILL BE BRIEF
OR NEGLIGIBLE. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH SUNSET.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO KEEP ALL SITES VFR AS WE
HAVE SEEN SOME UPWARD MOVEMENT IN THE CEILING THUS FAR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENTLY GUSTING YET SO DECIDED TO
BACK OFF ON THE GUSTS FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS...STAYING WITH SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 13 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 18/1900Z. THEN THE
GUSTS WILL BE REINSTATED. ALSO...DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES CROSS THE TAF SITES. THESE ARE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO
TIME FOR ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE AND FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN HERE AT
IND...THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH MOST VISIBILITIES REMAINING
AT OR ABOVE 6 SM. LAF WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THAT
AS VISIBILITIES HAVE RECENTLY DROPPED AS LOW AS 2SM...BUT CONTINUE
TO BOUNCE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 SM. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH THAT THE LOW
VSBYS WILL CONTINUE. CURRENTLY...DO NOT PLAN ON INCLUDING IN LAF TAF.

EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AND REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO 5 TO 10 KNOT
WINDS FOR SATURDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...MRD/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS















000
FXUS63 KIND 271854
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
PRODUCE NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST
AND A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETS UP.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY 7.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BUILD TOWARDS INDIANA BY SATURDAY. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR REGION.  BUT WITH
SUNSET CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.  WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING A LITTLE SOME AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT BY LATE TONIGHT
ALL AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR.  LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR RECORD VALUES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS.  GIVEN THE LATE
MARCH SUNSHINE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO
THE LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STILL A MOS BLEND IN THE LOWER 20S STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY WE CAN EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THEY END ANY CHANCES OF RAIN BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS THEN MOVE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME MODELS HINT AT PATCHY FOG LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT NEAR 60
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH...WINDS STRENGTHEN
TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN TO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. THUS...REMOVED POP MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER DRASTICALLY. 00Z EURO DIGS THE UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...DROPPING THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. 12Z GFS HOWEVER
SPREADS THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO BE DRAPED EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STUCK CLOSE TO THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION DURING THIS PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY...WHICH
INCLUDES INCREASED POP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OWING TO WAA
SHOWERS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOUNDARY. THE 00Z
EURO IS APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND IMPACTS.
WITH SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...CURRENTLY EXPECT THUNDER AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR FRIDAY...00Z EURO
BRINGS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS OCCURRING AND THE 12Z GFS
DIFFERS...FILTERING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. DECIDED TO DROP POPS FROM CHANCE INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY SINCE CONFIDENCE IN EURO SOLUTION NOT HIGH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S CHARACTERIZE THE
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271800Z TAF CYCLE/...

ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO KEEP ALL SITES VFR AS WE
HAVE SEEN SOME UPWARD MOVEMENT IN THE CEILING THUS FAR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENTLY GUSTING YET SO DECIDED TO
BACK OFF ON THE GUSTS FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS...STAYING WITH SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 13 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 18/1900Z. THEN THE
GUSTS WILL BE REINSTATED. ALSO...DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES CROSS THE TAF SITES. THESE ARE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO
TIME FOR ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE AND FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN HERE AT
IND...THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH MOST VISIBILITIES REMAINING
AT OR ABOVE 6 SM. LAF WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THAT
AS VISIBILITIES HAVE RECENTLY DROPPED AS LOW AS 2SM...BUT CONTINUE
TO BOUNCE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 SM. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH THAT THE LOW
VSBYS WILL CONTINUE. CURRENTLY...DO NOT PLAN ON INCLUDING IN LAF TAF.

EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AND REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO 5 TO 10 KNOT
WINDS FOR SATURDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...MRD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 271854
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
PRODUCE NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST
AND A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETS UP.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY 7.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BUILD TOWARDS INDIANA BY SATURDAY. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR REGION.  BUT WITH
SUNSET CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.  WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING A LITTLE SOME AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT BY LATE TONIGHT
ALL AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR.  LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR RECORD VALUES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS.  GIVEN THE LATE
MARCH SUNSHINE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO
THE LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STILL A MOS BLEND IN THE LOWER 20S STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY WE CAN EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THEY END ANY CHANCES OF RAIN BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS THEN MOVE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME MODELS HINT AT PATCHY FOG LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT NEAR 60
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH...WINDS STRENGTHEN
TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN TO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. THUS...REMOVED POP MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER DRASTICALLY. 00Z EURO DIGS THE UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...DROPPING THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. 12Z GFS HOWEVER
SPREADS THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO BE DRAPED EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STUCK CLOSE TO THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION DURING THIS PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY...WHICH
INCLUDES INCREASED POP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OWING TO WAA
SHOWERS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOUNDARY. THE 00Z
EURO IS APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND IMPACTS.
WITH SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...CURRENTLY EXPECT THUNDER AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR FRIDAY...00Z EURO
BRINGS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS OCCURRING AND THE 12Z GFS
DIFFERS...FILTERING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. DECIDED TO DROP POPS FROM CHANCE INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY SINCE CONFIDENCE IN EURO SOLUTION NOT HIGH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S CHARACTERIZE THE
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271800Z TAF CYCLE/...

ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO KEEP ALL SITES VFR AS WE
HAVE SEEN SOME UPWARD MOVEMENT IN THE CEILING THUS FAR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENTLY GUSTING YET SO DECIDED TO
BACK OFF ON THE GUSTS FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS...STAYING WITH SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 13 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 18/1900Z. THEN THE
GUSTS WILL BE REINSTATED. ALSO...DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES CROSS THE TAF SITES. THESE ARE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO
TIME FOR ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE AND FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN HERE AT
IND...THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH MOST VISIBILITIES REMAINING
AT OR ABOVE 6 SM. LAF WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THAT
AS VISIBILITIES HAVE RECENTLY DROPPED AS LOW AS 2SM...BUT CONTINUE
TO BOUNCE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 SM. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH THAT THE LOW
VSBYS WILL CONTINUE. CURRENTLY...DO NOT PLAN ON INCLUDING IN LAF TAF.

EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AND REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO 5 TO 10 KNOT
WINDS FOR SATURDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...MRD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 271854
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
PRODUCE NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST
AND A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETS UP.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY 7.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BUILD TOWARDS INDIANA BY SATURDAY. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR REGION.  BUT WITH
SUNSET CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.  WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING A LITTLE SOME AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT BY LATE TONIGHT
ALL AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR.  LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR RECORD VALUES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS.  GIVEN THE LATE
MARCH SUNSHINE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO
THE LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STILL A MOS BLEND IN THE LOWER 20S STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY WE CAN EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THEY END ANY CHANCES OF RAIN BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS THEN MOVE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME MODELS HINT AT PATCHY FOG LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT NEAR 60
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH...WINDS STRENGTHEN
TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN TO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. THUS...REMOVED POP MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER DRASTICALLY. 00Z EURO DIGS THE UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...DROPPING THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. 12Z GFS HOWEVER
SPREADS THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO BE DRAPED EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STUCK CLOSE TO THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION DURING THIS PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY...WHICH
INCLUDES INCREASED POP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OWING TO WAA
SHOWERS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOUNDARY. THE 00Z
EURO IS APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND IMPACTS.
WITH SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...CURRENTLY EXPECT THUNDER AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR FRIDAY...00Z EURO
BRINGS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS OCCURRING AND THE 12Z GFS
DIFFERS...FILTERING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. DECIDED TO DROP POPS FROM CHANCE INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY SINCE CONFIDENCE IN EURO SOLUTION NOT HIGH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S CHARACTERIZE THE
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271800Z TAF CYCLE/...

ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO KEEP ALL SITES VFR AS WE
HAVE SEEN SOME UPWARD MOVEMENT IN THE CEILING THUS FAR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENTLY GUSTING YET SO DECIDED TO
BACK OFF ON THE GUSTS FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS...STAYING WITH SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 13 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 18/1900Z. THEN THE
GUSTS WILL BE REINSTATED. ALSO...DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES CROSS THE TAF SITES. THESE ARE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO
TIME FOR ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE AND FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN HERE AT
IND...THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH MOST VISIBILITIES REMAINING
AT OR ABOVE 6 SM. LAF WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THAT
AS VISIBILITIES HAVE RECENTLY DROPPED AS LOW AS 2SM...BUT CONTINUE
TO BOUNCE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 SM. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH THAT THE LOW
VSBYS WILL CONTINUE. CURRENTLY...DO NOT PLAN ON INCLUDING IN LAF TAF.

EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AND REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO 5 TO 10 KNOT
WINDS FOR SATURDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...MRD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 271854
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
PRODUCE NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST
AND A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETS UP.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY 7.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BUILD TOWARDS INDIANA BY SATURDAY. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR REGION.  BUT WITH
SUNSET CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.  WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING A LITTLE SOME AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT BY LATE TONIGHT
ALL AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR.  LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR RECORD VALUES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS.  GIVEN THE LATE
MARCH SUNSHINE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO
THE LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STILL A MOS BLEND IN THE LOWER 20S STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY WE CAN EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THEY END ANY CHANCES OF RAIN BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS THEN MOVE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME MODELS HINT AT PATCHY FOG LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT NEAR 60
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH...WINDS STRENGTHEN
TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN TO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. THUS...REMOVED POP MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER DRASTICALLY. 00Z EURO DIGS THE UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...DROPPING THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. 12Z GFS HOWEVER
SPREADS THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO BE DRAPED EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STUCK CLOSE TO THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION DURING THIS PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY...WHICH
INCLUDES INCREASED POP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OWING TO WAA
SHOWERS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOUNDARY. THE 00Z
EURO IS APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND IMPACTS.
WITH SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...CURRENTLY EXPECT THUNDER AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR FRIDAY...00Z EURO
BRINGS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS OCCURRING AND THE 12Z GFS
DIFFERS...FILTERING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. DECIDED TO DROP POPS FROM CHANCE INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY SINCE CONFIDENCE IN EURO SOLUTION NOT HIGH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S CHARACTERIZE THE
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271800Z TAF CYCLE/...

ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO KEEP ALL SITES VFR AS WE
HAVE SEEN SOME UPWARD MOVEMENT IN THE CEILING THUS FAR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENTLY GUSTING YET SO DECIDED TO
BACK OFF ON THE GUSTS FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS...STAYING WITH SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 13 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 18/1900Z. THEN THE
GUSTS WILL BE REINSTATED. ALSO...DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES CROSS THE TAF SITES. THESE ARE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO
TIME FOR ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE AND FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN HERE AT
IND...THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH MOST VISIBILITIES REMAINING
AT OR ABOVE 6 SM. LAF WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THAT
AS VISIBILITIES HAVE RECENTLY DROPPED AS LOW AS 2SM...BUT CONTINUE
TO BOUNCE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 SM. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH THAT THE LOW
VSBYS WILL CONTINUE. CURRENTLY...DO NOT PLAN ON INCLUDING IN LAF TAF.

EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AND REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO 5 TO 10 KNOT
WINDS FOR SATURDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...MRD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 271847
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
247 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTANT COLD CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES FAR MORE ZONAL
AND TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FIRST
HOWEVER...A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY...AND NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.  RAISED SKY COVER A LITTLE
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE MIXING
UP TO 5 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LOTS OF
CU THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS MIXING MAY CAUSE AN INCREASE
IN FLURRIES AS WELL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES
TO THE FLURRIES FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MAY REACH 40.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM OK WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 OR LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPACT
SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL MERIT SOME CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMP
RECORDS FOR MARCH 28TH COULD BE IN PLAY. THE RECORD AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 16 DEGREES SET IN 1934.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL BUT BEGIN TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH...WINDS STRENGTHEN
TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN TO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. THUS...REMOVED POP MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER DRASTICALLY. 00Z EURO DIGS THE UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...DROPPING THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. 12Z GFS HOWEVER
SPREADS THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO BE DRAPED EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STUCK CLOSE TO THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION DURING THIS PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY...WHICH
INCLUDES INCREASED POP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OWING TO WAA
SHOWERS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOUNDARY. THE 00Z
EURO IS APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND IMPACTS.
WITH SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...CURRENTLY EXPECT THUNDER AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR FRIDAY...00Z EURO
BRINGS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS OCCURRING AND THE 12Z GFS
DIFFERS...FILTERING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. DECIDED TO DROP POPS FROM CHANCE INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY SINCE CONFIDENCE IN EURO SOLUTION NOT HIGH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S CHARACTERIZE THE
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271800Z TAF CYCLE/...

ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO KEEP ALL SITES VFR AS WE
HAVE SEEN SOME UPWARD MOVEMENT IN THE CEILING THUS FAR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENTLY GUSTING YET SO DECIDED TO
BACK OFF ON THE GUSTS FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS...STAYING WITH SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 13 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 18/1900Z. THEN THE
GUSTS WILL BE REINSTATED. ALSO...DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES CROSS THE TAF SITES. THESE ARE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO
TIME FOR ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE AND FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN HERE AT
IND...THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH MOST VISIBILITIES REMAINING
AT OR ABOVE 6 SM. LAF WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THAT
AS VISIBILITIES HAVE RECENTLY DROPPED AS LOW AS 2SM...BUT CONTINUE
TO BOUNCE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 SM. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH THAT THE LOW
VSBYS WILL CONTINUE. CURRENTLY...DO NOT PLAN ON INCLUDING IN LAF TAF.

EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AND REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO 5 TO 10 KNOT
WINDS FOR SATURDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...MRD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 271847
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
247 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTANT COLD CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES FAR MORE ZONAL
AND TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FIRST
HOWEVER...A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY...AND NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.  RAISED SKY COVER A LITTLE
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE MIXING
UP TO 5 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LOTS OF
CU THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS MIXING MAY CAUSE AN INCREASE
IN FLURRIES AS WELL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES
TO THE FLURRIES FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MAY REACH 40.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM OK WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 OR LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPACT
SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL MERIT SOME CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMP
RECORDS FOR MARCH 28TH COULD BE IN PLAY. THE RECORD AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 16 DEGREES SET IN 1934.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL BUT BEGIN TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH...WINDS STRENGTHEN
TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN TO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. THUS...REMOVED POP MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER DRASTICALLY. 00Z EURO DIGS THE UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...DROPPING THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. 12Z GFS HOWEVER
SPREADS THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO BE DRAPED EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STUCK CLOSE TO THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION DURING THIS PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY...WHICH
INCLUDES INCREASED POP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OWING TO WAA
SHOWERS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOUNDARY. THE 00Z
EURO IS APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND IMPACTS.
WITH SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...CURRENTLY EXPECT THUNDER AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR FRIDAY...00Z EURO
BRINGS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS OCCURRING AND THE 12Z GFS
DIFFERS...FILTERING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. DECIDED TO DROP POPS FROM CHANCE INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY SINCE CONFIDENCE IN EURO SOLUTION NOT HIGH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S CHARACTERIZE THE
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271800Z TAF CYCLE/...

ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO KEEP ALL SITES VFR AS WE
HAVE SEEN SOME UPWARD MOVEMENT IN THE CEILING THUS FAR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENTLY GUSTING YET SO DECIDED TO
BACK OFF ON THE GUSTS FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS...STAYING WITH SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 13 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 18/1900Z. THEN THE
GUSTS WILL BE REINSTATED. ALSO...DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES CROSS THE TAF SITES. THESE ARE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO
TIME FOR ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE AND FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN HERE AT
IND...THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH MOST VISIBILITIES REMAINING
AT OR ABOVE 6 SM. LAF WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THAT
AS VISIBILITIES HAVE RECENTLY DROPPED AS LOW AS 2SM...BUT CONTINUE
TO BOUNCE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 SM. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH THAT THE LOW
VSBYS WILL CONTINUE. CURRENTLY...DO NOT PLAN ON INCLUDING IN LAF TAF.

EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AND REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO 5 TO 10 KNOT
WINDS FOR SATURDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...MRD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 271847
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
247 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTANT COLD CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES FAR MORE ZONAL
AND TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FIRST
HOWEVER...A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY...AND NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.  RAISED SKY COVER A LITTLE
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE MIXING
UP TO 5 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LOTS OF
CU THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS MIXING MAY CAUSE AN INCREASE
IN FLURRIES AS WELL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES
TO THE FLURRIES FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MAY REACH 40.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM OK WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 OR LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPACT
SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL MERIT SOME CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMP
RECORDS FOR MARCH 28TH COULD BE IN PLAY. THE RECORD AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 16 DEGREES SET IN 1934.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL BUT BEGIN TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH...WINDS STRENGTHEN
TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN TO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. THUS...REMOVED POP MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER DRASTICALLY. 00Z EURO DIGS THE UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...DROPPING THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. 12Z GFS HOWEVER
SPREADS THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO BE DRAPED EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STUCK CLOSE TO THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION DURING THIS PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY...WHICH
INCLUDES INCREASED POP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OWING TO WAA
SHOWERS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOUNDARY. THE 00Z
EURO IS APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND IMPACTS.
WITH SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...CURRENTLY EXPECT THUNDER AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR FRIDAY...00Z EURO
BRINGS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS OCCURRING AND THE 12Z GFS
DIFFERS...FILTERING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. DECIDED TO DROP POPS FROM CHANCE INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY SINCE CONFIDENCE IN EURO SOLUTION NOT HIGH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S CHARACTERIZE THE
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271800Z TAF CYCLE/...

ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO KEEP ALL SITES VFR AS WE
HAVE SEEN SOME UPWARD MOVEMENT IN THE CEILING THUS FAR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENTLY GUSTING YET SO DECIDED TO
BACK OFF ON THE GUSTS FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS...STAYING WITH SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 13 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 18/1900Z. THEN THE
GUSTS WILL BE REINSTATED. ALSO...DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES CROSS THE TAF SITES. THESE ARE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO
TIME FOR ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE AND FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN HERE AT
IND...THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH MOST VISIBILITIES REMAINING
AT OR ABOVE 6 SM. LAF WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THAT
AS VISIBILITIES HAVE RECENTLY DROPPED AS LOW AS 2SM...BUT CONTINUE
TO BOUNCE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 SM. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH THAT THE LOW
VSBYS WILL CONTINUE. CURRENTLY...DO NOT PLAN ON INCLUDING IN LAF TAF.

EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AND REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO 5 TO 10 KNOT
WINDS FOR SATURDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...MRD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 271701
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
101 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTANT COLD CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES FAR MORE ZONAL
AND TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FIRST
HOWEVER...A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY...AND NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.  RAISED SKY COVER A LITTLE
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE MIXING
UP TO 5 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LOTS OF
CU THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS MIXING MAY CAUSE AN INCREASE
IN FLURRIES AS WELL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES
TO THE FLURRIES FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MAY REACH 40.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM OK WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 OR LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPACT
SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL MERIT SOME CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMP
RECORDS FOR MARCH 28TH COULD BE IN PLAY. THE RECORD AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 16 DEGREES SET IN 1934.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL BUT BEGIN TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271800Z TAF CYCLE/...

ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO KEEP ALL SITES VFR AS WE
HAVE SEEN SOME UPWARD MOVEMENT IN THE CEILING THUS FAR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENTLY GUSTING YET SO DECIDED TO
BACK OFF ON THE GUSTS FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS...STAYING WITH SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 13 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 18/1900Z. THEN THE
GUSTS WILL BE REINSTATED. ALSO...DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES CROSS THE TAF SITES. THESE ARE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO
TIME FOR ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE AND FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN HERE AT
IND...THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH MOST VISIBILITIES REMAINING
AT OR ABOVE 6 SM. LAF WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THAT
AS VISIBILITIES HAVE RECENTLY DROPPED AS LOW AS 2SM...BUT CONTINUE
TO BOUNCE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 SM. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH THAT THE LOW
VSBYS WILL CONTINUE. CURRENTLY...DO NOT PLAN ON INCLUDING IN LAF TAF.

EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AND REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO 5 TO 10 KNOT
WINDS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MRD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 271701
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
101 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTANT COLD CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES FAR MORE ZONAL
AND TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FIRST
HOWEVER...A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY...AND NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.  RAISED SKY COVER A LITTLE
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE MIXING
UP TO 5 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LOTS OF
CU THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS MIXING MAY CAUSE AN INCREASE
IN FLURRIES AS WELL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES
TO THE FLURRIES FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MAY REACH 40.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM OK WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 OR LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPACT
SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL MERIT SOME CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMP
RECORDS FOR MARCH 28TH COULD BE IN PLAY. THE RECORD AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 16 DEGREES SET IN 1934.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL BUT BEGIN TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271800Z TAF CYCLE/...

ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO KEEP ALL SITES VFR AS WE
HAVE SEEN SOME UPWARD MOVEMENT IN THE CEILING THUS FAR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENTLY GUSTING YET SO DECIDED TO
BACK OFF ON THE GUSTS FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS...STAYING WITH SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 13 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 18/1900Z. THEN THE
GUSTS WILL BE REINSTATED. ALSO...DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES CROSS THE TAF SITES. THESE ARE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO
TIME FOR ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE AND FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN HERE AT
IND...THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH MOST VISIBILITIES REMAINING
AT OR ABOVE 6 SM. LAF WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THAT
AS VISIBILITIES HAVE RECENTLY DROPPED AS LOW AS 2SM...BUT CONTINUE
TO BOUNCE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 SM. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH THAT THE LOW
VSBYS WILL CONTINUE. CURRENTLY...DO NOT PLAN ON INCLUDING IN LAF TAF.

EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AND REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO 5 TO 10 KNOT
WINDS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MRD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 271701
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
101 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTANT COLD CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES FAR MORE ZONAL
AND TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FIRST
HOWEVER...A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY...AND NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.  RAISED SKY COVER A LITTLE
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE MIXING
UP TO 5 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LOTS OF
CU THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS MIXING MAY CAUSE AN INCREASE
IN FLURRIES AS WELL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES
TO THE FLURRIES FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MAY REACH 40.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM OK WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 OR LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPACT
SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL MERIT SOME CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMP
RECORDS FOR MARCH 28TH COULD BE IN PLAY. THE RECORD AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 16 DEGREES SET IN 1934.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL BUT BEGIN TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271800Z TAF CYCLE/...

ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO KEEP ALL SITES VFR AS WE
HAVE SEEN SOME UPWARD MOVEMENT IN THE CEILING THUS FAR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENTLY GUSTING YET SO DECIDED TO
BACK OFF ON THE GUSTS FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS...STAYING WITH SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 13 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 18/1900Z. THEN THE
GUSTS WILL BE REINSTATED. ALSO...DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES CROSS THE TAF SITES. THESE ARE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO
TIME FOR ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE AND FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN HERE AT
IND...THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH MOST VISIBILITIES REMAINING
AT OR ABOVE 6 SM. LAF WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THAT
AS VISIBILITIES HAVE RECENTLY DROPPED AS LOW AS 2SM...BUT CONTINUE
TO BOUNCE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 SM. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH THAT THE LOW
VSBYS WILL CONTINUE. CURRENTLY...DO NOT PLAN ON INCLUDING IN LAF TAF.

EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AND REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO 5 TO 10 KNOT
WINDS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MRD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 271358
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
958 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTANT COLD CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES FAR MORE ZONAL
AND TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FIRST
HOWEVER...A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY...AND NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.  RAISED SKY COVER A LITTLE
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE MIXING
UP TO 5 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LOTS OF
CU THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS MIXING MAY CAUSE AN INCREASE
IN FLURRIES AS WELL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES
TO THE FLURRIES FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MAY REACH 40.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM OK WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 OR LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPACT
SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL MERIT SOME CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMP
RECORDS FOR MARCH 28TH COULD BE IN PLAY. THE RECORD AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 16 DEGREES SET IN 1934.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL BUT BEGIN TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CEILINGS REMAIN BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING AS THEY CONTINUE TO
BOUNCE ABOVE AND BELOW BKN/OVC030. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT025 AND GO
BKN035 AS CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS REMAIN A CONCERN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IT WILL AFFECT IND TERMINAL.
THUS...ANY -SN MENTION WILL BE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CU THIS MORNING SHOULD BE ALL VFR
AFTER 16Z. THEN...CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER 00Z AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

NORTH WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER 16Z. THEN...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
00Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MRD/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 271358
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
958 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTANT COLD CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES FAR MORE ZONAL
AND TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FIRST
HOWEVER...A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY...AND NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.  RAISED SKY COVER A LITTLE
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE MIXING
UP TO 5 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LOTS OF
CU THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS MIXING MAY CAUSE AN INCREASE
IN FLURRIES AS WELL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES
TO THE FLURRIES FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MAY REACH 40.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM OK WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 OR LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPACT
SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL MERIT SOME CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMP
RECORDS FOR MARCH 28TH COULD BE IN PLAY. THE RECORD AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 16 DEGREES SET IN 1934.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL BUT BEGIN TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CEILINGS REMAIN BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING AS THEY CONTINUE TO
BOUNCE ABOVE AND BELOW BKN/OVC030. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT025 AND GO
BKN035 AS CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS REMAIN A CONCERN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IT WILL AFFECT IND TERMINAL.
THUS...ANY -SN MENTION WILL BE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CU THIS MORNING SHOULD BE ALL VFR
AFTER 16Z. THEN...CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER 00Z AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

NORTH WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER 16Z. THEN...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
00Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MRD/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 271358
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
958 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTANT COLD CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES FAR MORE ZONAL
AND TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FIRST
HOWEVER...A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY...AND NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.  RAISED SKY COVER A LITTLE
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE MIXING
UP TO 5 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LOTS OF
CU THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS MIXING MAY CAUSE AN INCREASE
IN FLURRIES AS WELL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES
TO THE FLURRIES FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MAY REACH 40.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM OK WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 OR LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPACT
SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL MERIT SOME CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMP
RECORDS FOR MARCH 28TH COULD BE IN PLAY. THE RECORD AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 16 DEGREES SET IN 1934.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL BUT BEGIN TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CEILINGS REMAIN BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING AS THEY CONTINUE TO
BOUNCE ABOVE AND BELOW BKN/OVC030. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT025 AND GO
BKN035 AS CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS REMAIN A CONCERN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IT WILL AFFECT IND TERMINAL.
THUS...ANY -SN MENTION WILL BE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CU THIS MORNING SHOULD BE ALL VFR
AFTER 16Z. THEN...CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER 00Z AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

NORTH WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER 16Z. THEN...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
00Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MRD/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 271358
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
958 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTANT COLD CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES FAR MORE ZONAL
AND TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FIRST
HOWEVER...A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY...AND NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.  RAISED SKY COVER A LITTLE
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE MIXING
UP TO 5 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LOTS OF
CU THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS MIXING MAY CAUSE AN INCREASE
IN FLURRIES AS WELL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES
TO THE FLURRIES FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MAY REACH 40.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM OK WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 OR LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPACT
SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL MERIT SOME CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMP
RECORDS FOR MARCH 28TH COULD BE IN PLAY. THE RECORD AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 16 DEGREES SET IN 1934.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL BUT BEGIN TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CEILINGS REMAIN BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING AS THEY CONTINUE TO
BOUNCE ABOVE AND BELOW BKN/OVC030. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT025 AND GO
BKN035 AS CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS REMAIN A CONCERN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IT WILL AFFECT IND TERMINAL.
THUS...ANY -SN MENTION WILL BE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CU THIS MORNING SHOULD BE ALL VFR
AFTER 16Z. THEN...CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER 00Z AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

NORTH WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER 16Z. THEN...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
00Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MRD/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 271348
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
948 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...

NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTANT COLD CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES FAR MORE ZONAL
AND TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FIRST
HOWEVER...A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY...AND NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.  RAISED SKY COVER A LITTLE
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE MIXING
UP TO 5 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LOTS OF
CU THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS MIXING MAY CAUSE AN INCREASE
IN FLURRIES AS WELL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES
TO THE FLURRIES FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MAY REACH 40.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM OK WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 OR LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPACT
SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL MERIT SOME CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMP
RECORDS FOR MARCH 28TH COULD BE IN PLAY. THE RECORD AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 16 DEGREES SET IN 1934.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL BUT BEGIN TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CU THIS MORNING SHOULD BE ALL VFR
AFTER 16Z. THEN...CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER 00Z AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

NORTH WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER 16Z. THEN...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
00Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 271348
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
948 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...

NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTANT COLD CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES FAR MORE ZONAL
AND TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FIRST
HOWEVER...A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY...AND NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.  RAISED SKY COVER A LITTLE
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE MIXING
UP TO 5 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LOTS OF
CU THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS MIXING MAY CAUSE AN INCREASE
IN FLURRIES AS WELL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES
TO THE FLURRIES FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MAY REACH 40.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM OK WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 OR LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPACT
SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL MERIT SOME CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMP
RECORDS FOR MARCH 28TH COULD BE IN PLAY. THE RECORD AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 16 DEGREES SET IN 1934.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL BUT BEGIN TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CU THIS MORNING SHOULD BE ALL VFR
AFTER 16Z. THEN...CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER 00Z AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

NORTH WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER 16Z. THEN...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
00Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 271348
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
948 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...

NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTANT COLD CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES FAR MORE ZONAL
AND TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FIRST
HOWEVER...A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY...AND NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.  RAISED SKY COVER A LITTLE
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE MIXING
UP TO 5 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LOTS OF
CU THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS MIXING MAY CAUSE AN INCREASE
IN FLURRIES AS WELL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES
TO THE FLURRIES FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MAY REACH 40.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM OK WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 OR LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPACT
SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL MERIT SOME CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMP
RECORDS FOR MARCH 28TH COULD BE IN PLAY. THE RECORD AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 16 DEGREES SET IN 1934.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL BUT BEGIN TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CU THIS MORNING SHOULD BE ALL VFR
AFTER 16Z. THEN...CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER 00Z AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

NORTH WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER 16Z. THEN...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
00Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 271348
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
948 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...

NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTANT COLD CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES FAR MORE ZONAL
AND TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FIRST
HOWEVER...A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY...AND NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.  RAISED SKY COVER A LITTLE
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE MIXING
UP TO 5 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LOTS OF
CU THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS MIXING MAY CAUSE AN INCREASE
IN FLURRIES AS WELL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES
TO THE FLURRIES FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MAY REACH 40.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM OK WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 OR LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPACT
SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL MERIT SOME CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMP
RECORDS FOR MARCH 28TH COULD BE IN PLAY. THE RECORD AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 16 DEGREES SET IN 1934.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL BUT BEGIN TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CU THIS MORNING SHOULD BE ALL VFR
AFTER 16Z. THEN...CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER 00Z AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

NORTH WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER 16Z. THEN...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
00Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 271046
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
646 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTANT COLD CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES FAR MORE ZONAL
AND TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FIRST
HOWEVER...A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY...AND NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

QUITE COOL FOR A LATE MARCH DAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GET NO
WARMER THAN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
AREA. WENT A BIT BELOW CONSENSUS NUMBERS PER UPSTREAM MAXES FROM
THURSDAY.

WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST SOME
SHALLOW MOISTURE INITIALLY. UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR MOSAIC DOES
SHOW A FEW LIGHT RETURNS AS WELL...AND HRRR BREAKS OUT A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. SHOULD BE OF LITTLE TO NO CONSEQUENCE
FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPACT
SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL MERIT SOME CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMP
RECORDS FOR MARCH 28TH COULD BE IN PLAY. THE RECORD AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 16 DEGREES SET IN 1934.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL BUT BEGIN TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CU THIS MORNING SHOULD BE ALL VFR
AFTER 16Z. THEN...CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER 00Z AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

NORTH WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER 16Z. THEN...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
00Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 271046
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
646 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTANT COLD CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES FAR MORE ZONAL
AND TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FIRST
HOWEVER...A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY...AND NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

QUITE COOL FOR A LATE MARCH DAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GET NO
WARMER THAN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
AREA. WENT A BIT BELOW CONSENSUS NUMBERS PER UPSTREAM MAXES FROM
THURSDAY.

WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST SOME
SHALLOW MOISTURE INITIALLY. UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR MOSAIC DOES
SHOW A FEW LIGHT RETURNS AS WELL...AND HRRR BREAKS OUT A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. SHOULD BE OF LITTLE TO NO CONSEQUENCE
FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPACT
SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL MERIT SOME CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMP
RECORDS FOR MARCH 28TH COULD BE IN PLAY. THE RECORD AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 16 DEGREES SET IN 1934.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL BUT BEGIN TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CU THIS MORNING SHOULD BE ALL VFR
AFTER 16Z. THEN...CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER 00Z AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

NORTH WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER 16Z. THEN...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
00Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 270818
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
418 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTANT COLD CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES FAR MORE ZONAL
AND TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FIRST
HOWEVER...A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY...AND NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

QUITE COOL FOR A LATE MARCH DAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GET NO
WARMER THAN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
AREA. WENT A BIT BELOW CONSENSUS NUMBERS PER UPSTREAM MAXES FROM
THURSDAY.

WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST SOME
SHALLOW MOISTURE INITIALLY. UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR MOSAIC DOES
SHOW A FEW LIGHT RETURNS AS WELL...AND HRRR BREAKS OUT A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. SHOULD BE OF LITTLE TO NO CONSEQUENCE
FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPACT
SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL MERIT SOME CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMP
RECORDS FOR MARCH 28TH COULD BE IN PLAY. THE RECORD AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 16 DEGREES SET IN 1934.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL BUT BEGIN TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TWEAKED THE WIND...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TOWARDS/AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL AT THE TAF
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAYERED CLOUD ABOVE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 271800Z.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 270818
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
418 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTANT COLD CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES FAR MORE ZONAL
AND TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FIRST
HOWEVER...A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY...AND NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

QUITE COOL FOR A LATE MARCH DAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GET NO
WARMER THAN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
AREA. WENT A BIT BELOW CONSENSUS NUMBERS PER UPSTREAM MAXES FROM
THURSDAY.

WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST SOME
SHALLOW MOISTURE INITIALLY. UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR MOSAIC DOES
SHOW A FEW LIGHT RETURNS AS WELL...AND HRRR BREAKS OUT A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. SHOULD BE OF LITTLE TO NO CONSEQUENCE
FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPACT
SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL MERIT SOME CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMP
RECORDS FOR MARCH 28TH COULD BE IN PLAY. THE RECORD AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 16 DEGREES SET IN 1934.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL BUT BEGIN TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TWEAKED THE WIND...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TOWARDS/AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL AT THE TAF
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAYERED CLOUD ABOVE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 271800Z.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 270818
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
418 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTANT COLD CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES FAR MORE ZONAL
AND TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FIRST
HOWEVER...A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY...AND NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

QUITE COOL FOR A LATE MARCH DAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GET NO
WARMER THAN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
AREA. WENT A BIT BELOW CONSENSUS NUMBERS PER UPSTREAM MAXES FROM
THURSDAY.

WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST SOME
SHALLOW MOISTURE INITIALLY. UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR MOSAIC DOES
SHOW A FEW LIGHT RETURNS AS WELL...AND HRRR BREAKS OUT A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. SHOULD BE OF LITTLE TO NO CONSEQUENCE
FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPACT
SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL MERIT SOME CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMP
RECORDS FOR MARCH 28TH COULD BE IN PLAY. THE RECORD AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 16 DEGREES SET IN 1934.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL BUT BEGIN TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TWEAKED THE WIND...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TOWARDS/AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL AT THE TAF
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAYERED CLOUD ABOVE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 271800Z.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 270818
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
418 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTANT COLD CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES FAR MORE ZONAL
AND TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FIRST
HOWEVER...A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY...AND NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

QUITE COOL FOR A LATE MARCH DAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GET NO
WARMER THAN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
AREA. WENT A BIT BELOW CONSENSUS NUMBERS PER UPSTREAM MAXES FROM
THURSDAY.

WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST SOME
SHALLOW MOISTURE INITIALLY. UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR MOSAIC DOES
SHOW A FEW LIGHT RETURNS AS WELL...AND HRRR BREAKS OUT A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. SHOULD BE OF LITTLE TO NO CONSEQUENCE
FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPACT
SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL MERIT SOME CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMP
RECORDS FOR MARCH 28TH COULD BE IN PLAY. THE RECORD AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 16 DEGREES SET IN 1934.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL BUT BEGIN TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TWEAKED THE WIND...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TOWARDS/AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL AT THE TAF
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAYERED CLOUD ABOVE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 271800Z.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 270755
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTANT COLD CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES FAR MORE ZONAL
AND TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FIRST
HOWEVER...A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY...AND NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

QUITE COOL FOR A LATE MARCH DAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GET NO
WARMER THAN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
AREA. WENT A BIT BELOW CONSENSUS NUMBERS PER UPSTREAM MAXES FROM
THURSDAY.

WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST SOME
SHALLOW MOISTURE INITIALLY. UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR MOSAIC DOES
SHOW A FEW LIGHT RETURNS AS WELL...AND HRRR BREAKS OUT A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. SHOULD BE OF LITTLE TO NO CONSEQUENCE
FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPACT
SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL MERIT SOME CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMP
RECORDS FOR MARCH 28TH COULD BE IN PLAY. THE RECORD AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 16 DEGREES SET IN 1934.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL BUT BEGIN TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TOWARDS/AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL AT THE TAF
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAYERED CLOUD ABOVE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 271800Z.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 270718
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TOWARDS/AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL AT THE TAF
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAYERED CLOUD ABOVE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 271800Z.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

















000
FXUS63 KIND 270718
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TOWARDS/AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL AT THE TAF
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAYERED CLOUD ABOVE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 271800Z.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS


















000
FXUS63 KIND 270718
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TOWARDS/AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL AT THE TAF
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAYERED CLOUD ABOVE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 271800Z.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

















000
FXUS63 KIND 270718
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TOWARDS/AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL AT THE TAF
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAYERED CLOUD ABOVE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 271800Z.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS


















000
FXUS63 KIND 270408
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TOWARDS/AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL AT THE TAF
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAYERED CLOUD ABOVE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 271800Z.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS















000
FXUS63 KIND 270408
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TOWARDS/AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL AT THE TAF
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAYERED CLOUD ABOVE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 271800Z.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 270408
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TOWARDS/AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL AT THE TAF
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAYERED CLOUD ABOVE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 271800Z.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 270408
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TOWARDS/AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL AT THE TAF
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAYERED CLOUD ABOVE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 271800Z.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS















000
FXUS63 KIND 270220
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1019 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

REMAINING CEILINGS 030-035 LOOK DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO EXPECTING
THESE CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME.

AS LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT...EXPECTING CEILINGS 035-040
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE TAF SITES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER ABOUT 270700Z. THERE WILL BE SOME LAYERED
CLOUD ABOVE 050 AS WELL.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 270220
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1019 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

REMAINING CEILINGS 030-035 LOOK DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO EXPECTING
THESE CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME.

AS LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT...EXPECTING CEILINGS 035-040
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE TAF SITES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER ABOUT 270700Z. THERE WILL BE SOME LAYERED
CLOUD ABOVE 050 AS WELL.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 270220
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1019 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

REMAINING CEILINGS 030-035 LOOK DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO EXPECTING
THESE CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME.

AS LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT...EXPECTING CEILINGS 035-040
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE TAF SITES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER ABOUT 270700Z. THERE WILL BE SOME LAYERED
CLOUD ABOVE 050 AS WELL.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 270220
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1019 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

REMAINING CEILINGS 030-035 LOOK DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO EXPECTING
THESE CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME.

AS LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT...EXPECTING CEILINGS 035-040
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE TAF SITES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER ABOUT 270700Z. THERE WILL BE SOME LAYERED
CLOUD ABOVE 050 AS WELL.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 270155
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 632 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

REMAINING CEILINGS 030-035 LOOK DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO EXPECTING
THESE CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME.

AS LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT...EXPECTING CEILINGS 035-040
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE TAF SITES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER ABOUT 270700Z. THERE WILL BE SOME LAYERED
CLOUD ABOVE 050 AS WELL.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 270155
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 632 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

REMAINING CEILINGS 030-035 LOOK DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO EXPECTING
THESE CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME.

AS LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT...EXPECTING CEILINGS 035-040
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE TAF SITES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER ABOUT 270700Z. THERE WILL BE SOME LAYERED
CLOUD ABOVE 050 AS WELL.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 270155
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 632 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

REMAINING CEILINGS 030-035 LOOK DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO EXPECTING
THESE CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME.

AS LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT...EXPECTING CEILINGS 035-040
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE TAF SITES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER ABOUT 270700Z. THERE WILL BE SOME LAYERED
CLOUD ABOVE 050 AS WELL.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 270155
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 632 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

REMAINING CEILINGS 030-035 LOOK DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO EXPECTING
THESE CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME.

AS LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT...EXPECTING CEILINGS 035-040
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE TAF SITES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER ABOUT 270700Z. THERE WILL BE SOME LAYERED
CLOUD ABOVE 050 AS WELL.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 262234
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
632 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 632 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

REMAINING CEILINGS 030-035 LOOK DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO EXPECTING
THESE CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME.

AS LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT...EXPECTING CEILINGS 035-040
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE TAF SITES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER ABOUT 270700Z. THERE WILL BE SOME LAYERED
CLOUD ABOVE 050 AS WELL.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 262234
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
632 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 632 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

REMAINING CEILINGS 030-035 LOOK DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO EXPECTING
THESE CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME.

AS LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT...EXPECTING CEILINGS 035-040
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE TAF SITES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER ABOUT 270700Z. THERE WILL BE SOME LAYERED
CLOUD ABOVE 050 AS WELL.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 262234
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
632 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 632 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

REMAINING CEILINGS 030-035 LOOK DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO EXPECTING
THESE CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME.

AS LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT...EXPECTING CEILINGS 035-040
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE TAF SITES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER ABOUT 270700Z. THERE WILL BE SOME LAYERED
CLOUD ABOVE 050 AS WELL.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 262234
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
632 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 632 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

REMAINING CEILINGS 030-035 LOOK DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO EXPECTING
THESE CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME.

AS LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT...EXPECTING CEILINGS 035-040
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE TAF SITES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER ABOUT 270700Z. THERE WILL BE SOME LAYERED
CLOUD ABOVE 050 AS WELL.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 262022
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
420 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 262100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TAF SITES
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING TO THE EAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING AND
PREVAIL INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

INSERTED MENTION OF FOG AT KBMG TONIGHT WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
MOST ABUNDANT...BUT THE REMAINING TAF SITES SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH
TO ESCAPE FOG FORMATION.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...INCREASING LATE TOMORROW
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 262022
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
420 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 262100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TAF SITES
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING TO THE EAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING AND
PREVAIL INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

INSERTED MENTION OF FOG AT KBMG TONIGHT WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
MOST ABUNDANT...BUT THE REMAINING TAF SITES SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH
TO ESCAPE FOG FORMATION.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...INCREASING LATE TOMORROW
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 261915
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TAF SITES
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING TO THE EAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING AND
PREVAIL INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

INSERTED MENTION OF FOG AT KBMG TONIGHT WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
MOST ABUNDANT...BUT THE REMAINING TAF SITES SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH
TO ESCAPE FOG FORMATION.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...INCREASING LATE TOMORROW
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 261915
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TAF SITES
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING TO THE EAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING AND
PREVAIL INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

INSERTED MENTION OF FOG AT KBMG TONIGHT WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
MOST ABUNDANT...BUT THE REMAINING TAF SITES SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH
TO ESCAPE FOG FORMATION.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...INCREASING LATE TOMORROW
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 261730
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
130 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 941 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRECIP TREND OF EXITING WEST BUT WITH SOME SNOW MIX OCCURRING AT
END STILL FAIRLY MUCH ON TRACK WITH ONGOING FORECAST. NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EXCEPT BRIEFLY IN LOCALIZED AREAS BUT THAT
WILL MELT QUICKLY. STILL SEE RAIN ENDING MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA
BY THE END OF THE NOON HOUR...ALREADY DONE FROM NEAR TERRE HAUTE
NORTHEAST TO KOKOMO.

CLEARING SKIES HAVE BEEN SLOWED SLIGHTLY BUT STILL EXPECT
IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TAF SITES
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING TO THE EAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING AND
PREVAIL INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

INSERTED MENTION OF FOG AT KBMG TONIGHT WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
MOST ABUNDANT...BUT THE REMAINING TAF SITES SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH
TO ESCAPE FOG FORMATION.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...INCREASING LATE TOMORROW
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 261730
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
130 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 941 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRECIP TREND OF EXITING WEST BUT WITH SOME SNOW MIX OCCURRING AT
END STILL FAIRLY MUCH ON TRACK WITH ONGOING FORECAST. NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EXCEPT BRIEFLY IN LOCALIZED AREAS BUT THAT
WILL MELT QUICKLY. STILL SEE RAIN ENDING MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA
BY THE END OF THE NOON HOUR...ALREADY DONE FROM NEAR TERRE HAUTE
NORTHEAST TO KOKOMO.

CLEARING SKIES HAVE BEEN SLOWED SLIGHTLY BUT STILL EXPECT
IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TAF SITES
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING TO THE EAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING AND
PREVAIL INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

INSERTED MENTION OF FOG AT KBMG TONIGHT WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
MOST ABUNDANT...BUT THE REMAINING TAF SITES SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH
TO ESCAPE FOG FORMATION.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...INCREASING LATE TOMORROW
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 261730
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
130 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 941 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRECIP TREND OF EXITING WEST BUT WITH SOME SNOW MIX OCCURRING AT
END STILL FAIRLY MUCH ON TRACK WITH ONGOING FORECAST. NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EXCEPT BRIEFLY IN LOCALIZED AREAS BUT THAT
WILL MELT QUICKLY. STILL SEE RAIN ENDING MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA
BY THE END OF THE NOON HOUR...ALREADY DONE FROM NEAR TERRE HAUTE
NORTHEAST TO KOKOMO.

CLEARING SKIES HAVE BEEN SLOWED SLIGHTLY BUT STILL EXPECT
IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TAF SITES
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING TO THE EAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING AND
PREVAIL INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

INSERTED MENTION OF FOG AT KBMG TONIGHT WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
MOST ABUNDANT...BUT THE REMAINING TAF SITES SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH
TO ESCAPE FOG FORMATION.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...INCREASING LATE TOMORROW
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 261730
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
130 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 941 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRECIP TREND OF EXITING WEST BUT WITH SOME SNOW MIX OCCURRING AT
END STILL FAIRLY MUCH ON TRACK WITH ONGOING FORECAST. NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EXCEPT BRIEFLY IN LOCALIZED AREAS BUT THAT
WILL MELT QUICKLY. STILL SEE RAIN ENDING MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA
BY THE END OF THE NOON HOUR...ALREADY DONE FROM NEAR TERRE HAUTE
NORTHEAST TO KOKOMO.

CLEARING SKIES HAVE BEEN SLOWED SLIGHTLY BUT STILL EXPECT
IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TAF SITES
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING TO THE EAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING AND
PREVAIL INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

INSERTED MENTION OF FOG AT KBMG TONIGHT WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
MOST ABUNDANT...BUT THE REMAINING TAF SITES SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH
TO ESCAPE FOG FORMATION.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...INCREASING LATE TOMORROW
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 261411
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1011 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 941 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRECIP TREND OF EXITING WEST BUT WITH SOME SNOW MIX OCCURRING AT
END STILL FAIRLY MUCH ON TRACK WITH ONGOING FORECAST. NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EXCEPT BRIEFLY IN LOCALIZED AREAS BUT THAT
WILL MELT QUICKLY. STILL SEE RAIN ENDING MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA
BY THE END OF THE NOON HOUR...ALREADY DONE FROM NEAR TERRE HAUTE
NORTHEAST TO KOKOMO.

CLEARING SKIES HAVE BEEN SLOWED SLIGHTLY BUT STILL EXPECT
IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATE...
EXTENDED RAIN THROUGH THU 16Z AT KIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. SOME BRIEF VFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTION HINT AT TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH TODAY. BY 21Z-24Z...CCL RISE TO VFR LEVELS...BUT
CIGS STILL SHOULD LINGER.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
LOWERING OF CIGS BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...AS CCLS FALL TO
NEAR 2500FT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...PUMA/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 261411
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1011 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 941 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRECIP TREND OF EXITING WEST BUT WITH SOME SNOW MIX OCCURRING AT
END STILL FAIRLY MUCH ON TRACK WITH ONGOING FORECAST. NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EXCEPT BRIEFLY IN LOCALIZED AREAS BUT THAT
WILL MELT QUICKLY. STILL SEE RAIN ENDING MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA
BY THE END OF THE NOON HOUR...ALREADY DONE FROM NEAR TERRE HAUTE
NORTHEAST TO KOKOMO.

CLEARING SKIES HAVE BEEN SLOWED SLIGHTLY BUT STILL EXPECT
IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATE...
EXTENDED RAIN THROUGH THU 16Z AT KIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. SOME BRIEF VFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTION HINT AT TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH TODAY. BY 21Z-24Z...CCL RISE TO VFR LEVELS...BUT
CIGS STILL SHOULD LINGER.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
LOWERING OF CIGS BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...AS CCLS FALL TO
NEAR 2500FT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...PUMA/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 261353
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
953 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 941 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRECIP TREND OF EXITING WEST BUT WITH SOME SNOW MIX OCCURRING AT
END STILL FAIRLY MUCH ON TRACK WITH ONGOING FORECAST. NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EXCEPT BRIEFLY IN LOCALIZED AREAS BUT THAT
WILL MELT QUICKLY. STILL SEE RAIN ENDING MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA
BY THE END OF THE NOON HOUR...ALREADY DONE FROM NEAR TERRE HAUTE
NORTHEAST TO KOKOMO.

CLEARING SKIES HAVE BEEN SLOWED SLIGHTLY BUT STILL EXPECT
IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261200Z/...

ISSUED AT 557 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. SOME BRIEF VFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTION HINT AT TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH TODAY. BY 21Z-24Z...CCL RISE TO VFR LEVELS...BUT
CIGS STILL SHOULD LINGER.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
LOWERING OF CIGS BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...AS CCLS FALL TO
NEAR 2500FT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 261353
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
953 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 941 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRECIP TREND OF EXITING WEST BUT WITH SOME SNOW MIX OCCURRING AT
END STILL FAIRLY MUCH ON TRACK WITH ONGOING FORECAST. NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EXCEPT BRIEFLY IN LOCALIZED AREAS BUT THAT
WILL MELT QUICKLY. STILL SEE RAIN ENDING MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA
BY THE END OF THE NOON HOUR...ALREADY DONE FROM NEAR TERRE HAUTE
NORTHEAST TO KOKOMO.

CLEARING SKIES HAVE BEEN SLOWED SLIGHTLY BUT STILL EXPECT
IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261200Z/...

ISSUED AT 557 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. SOME BRIEF VFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTION HINT AT TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH TODAY. BY 21Z-24Z...CCL RISE TO VFR LEVELS...BUT
CIGS STILL SHOULD LINGER.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
LOWERING OF CIGS BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...AS CCLS FALL TO
NEAR 2500FT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 261353
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
953 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 941 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRECIP TREND OF EXITING WEST BUT WITH SOME SNOW MIX OCCURRING AT
END STILL FAIRLY MUCH ON TRACK WITH ONGOING FORECAST. NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EXCEPT BRIEFLY IN LOCALIZED AREAS BUT THAT
WILL MELT QUICKLY. STILL SEE RAIN ENDING MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA
BY THE END OF THE NOON HOUR...ALREADY DONE FROM NEAR TERRE HAUTE
NORTHEAST TO KOKOMO.

CLEARING SKIES HAVE BEEN SLOWED SLIGHTLY BUT STILL EXPECT
IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261200Z/...

ISSUED AT 557 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. SOME BRIEF VFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTION HINT AT TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH TODAY. BY 21Z-24Z...CCL RISE TO VFR LEVELS...BUT
CIGS STILL SHOULD LINGER.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
LOWERING OF CIGS BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...AS CCLS FALL TO
NEAR 2500FT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 261002
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
602 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHEN RAIN WILL END.

ALL THE MODELS AGREE IT WILL END RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS
AND MAV MOSTLY KILL IT AS SOON AS 12Z. THAT LOOKS TOO FAST
CONSIDERING NO OTHER MODEL...INCLUDING THE RAPID REFRESH AND RAP40 IS
SO QUICK. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE POPS FROM THE MET LOOK BEST
IN TERMS OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AFTER 12Z. THEY WILL NEED TO BE
SCALED DOWN RAPIDLY SO DRY WEATHER IS WIDELY ESTABLISHED BY 18Z.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SNOW MAY DEVELOP BEFORE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. THIS IS IFFY CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
30S WELL UPSTREAM AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE AMBIVALENT ABOUT SNOW
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. IN OTHER WORDS...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SNOW AND THE FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THAT.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...TODAYS HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO
WHATEVER TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING AT 12Z. THE MAV SEEMS TO CAPTURE
THIS FAIRLY WELL. THE CONSHORT MODEL DID A DECENT JOB OF HANDLING
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION YESTERDAY...AND WILL BE USED FOR THAT AGAIN

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261200Z/...

ISSUED AT 557 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. SOME BRIEF VFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTION HINT AT TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH TODAY. BY 21Z-24Z...CCLS RISE TO VFR LEVELS...BUT
CIGS STILL SHOULD LINGER.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
LOWERING OF CIGS BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...AS CCLS FALL TO
NEAR 2500FT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 261002
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
602 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHEN RAIN WILL END.

ALL THE MODELS AGREE IT WILL END RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS
AND MAV MOSTLY KILL IT AS SOON AS 12Z. THAT LOOKS TOO FAST
CONSIDERING NO OTHER MODEL...INCLUDING THE RAPID REFRESH AND RAP40 IS
SO QUICK. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE POPS FROM THE MET LOOK BEST
IN TERMS OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AFTER 12Z. THEY WILL NEED TO BE
SCALED DOWN RAPIDLY SO DRY WEATHER IS WIDELY ESTABLISHED BY 18Z.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SNOW MAY DEVELOP BEFORE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. THIS IS IFFY CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
30S WELL UPSTREAM AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE AMBIVALENT ABOUT SNOW
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. IN OTHER WORDS...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SNOW AND THE FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THAT.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...TODAYS HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO
WHATEVER TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING AT 12Z. THE MAV SEEMS TO CAPTURE
THIS FAIRLY WELL. THE CONSHORT MODEL DID A DECENT JOB OF HANDLING
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION YESTERDAY...AND WILL BE USED FOR THAT AGAIN

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261200Z/...

ISSUED AT 557 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. SOME BRIEF VFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTION HINT AT TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH TODAY. BY 21Z-24Z...CCLS RISE TO VFR LEVELS...BUT
CIGS STILL SHOULD LINGER.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
LOWERING OF CIGS BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...AS CCLS FALL TO
NEAR 2500FT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 260824
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
424 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHEN RAIN WILL END.

ALL THE MODELS AGREE IT WILL END RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS
AND MAV MOSTLY KILL IT AS SOON AS 12Z. THAT LOOKS TOO FAST
CONSIDERING NO OTHER MODEL...INCLUDING THE RAPID REFRESH AND RAP40 IS
SO QUICK. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE POPS FROM THE MET LOOK BEST
IN TERMS OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AFTER 12Z. THEY WILL NEED TO BE
SCALED DOWN RAPIDLY SO DRY WEATHER IS WIDELY ESTABLISHED BY 18Z.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SNOW MAY DEVELOP BEFORE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. THIS IS IFFY CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
30S WELL UPSTREAM AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE AMBIVALENT ABOUT SNOW
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. IN OTHER WORDS...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SNOW AND THE FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THAT.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...TODAYS HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO
WHATEVER TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING AT 12Z. THE MAV SEEMS TO CAPTURE
THIS FAIRLY WELL. THE CONSHORT MODEL DID A DECENT JOB OF HANDLING
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION YESTERDAY...AND WILL BE USED FOR THAT AGAIN

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS KENTUCKY. SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFTER 14Z AS RAPID REFRESH DEPICTS PRECIP
EXITING THE TAF SITES THEN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TAF SITES AROUND THU 06Z AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS SHOULD START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH ONSET OF RAIN AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP.  ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH SOUTHERN INDIANA...SO WILL
NOT MENTION CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 260824
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
424 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHEN RAIN WILL END.

ALL THE MODELS AGREE IT WILL END RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS
AND MAV MOSTLY KILL IT AS SOON AS 12Z. THAT LOOKS TOO FAST
CONSIDERING NO OTHER MODEL...INCLUDING THE RAPID REFRESH AND RAP40 IS
SO QUICK. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE POPS FROM THE MET LOOK BEST
IN TERMS OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AFTER 12Z. THEY WILL NEED TO BE
SCALED DOWN RAPIDLY SO DRY WEATHER IS WIDELY ESTABLISHED BY 18Z.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SNOW MAY DEVELOP BEFORE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. THIS IS IFFY CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
30S WELL UPSTREAM AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE AMBIVALENT ABOUT SNOW
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. IN OTHER WORDS...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SNOW AND THE FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THAT.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...TODAYS HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO
WHATEVER TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING AT 12Z. THE MAV SEEMS TO CAPTURE
THIS FAIRLY WELL. THE CONSHORT MODEL DID A DECENT JOB OF HANDLING
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION YESTERDAY...AND WILL BE USED FOR THAT AGAIN

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS KENTUCKY. SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFTER 14Z AS RAPID REFRESH DEPICTS PRECIP
EXITING THE TAF SITES THEN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TAF SITES AROUND THU 06Z AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS SHOULD START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH ONSET OF RAIN AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP.  ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH SOUTHERN INDIANA...SO WILL
NOT MENTION CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 260824
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
424 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHEN RAIN WILL END.

ALL THE MODELS AGREE IT WILL END RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS
AND MAV MOSTLY KILL IT AS SOON AS 12Z. THAT LOOKS TOO FAST
CONSIDERING NO OTHER MODEL...INCLUDING THE RAPID REFRESH AND RAP40 IS
SO QUICK. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE POPS FROM THE MET LOOK BEST
IN TERMS OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AFTER 12Z. THEY WILL NEED TO BE
SCALED DOWN RAPIDLY SO DRY WEATHER IS WIDELY ESTABLISHED BY 18Z.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SNOW MAY DEVELOP BEFORE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. THIS IS IFFY CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
30S WELL UPSTREAM AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE AMBIVALENT ABOUT SNOW
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. IN OTHER WORDS...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SNOW AND THE FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THAT.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...TODAYS HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO
WHATEVER TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING AT 12Z. THE MAV SEEMS TO CAPTURE
THIS FAIRLY WELL. THE CONSHORT MODEL DID A DECENT JOB OF HANDLING
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION YESTERDAY...AND WILL BE USED FOR THAT AGAIN

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS KENTUCKY. SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFTER 14Z AS RAPID REFRESH DEPICTS PRECIP
EXITING THE TAF SITES THEN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TAF SITES AROUND THU 06Z AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS SHOULD START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH ONSET OF RAIN AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP.  ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH SOUTHERN INDIANA...SO WILL
NOT MENTION CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 260727
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
327 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHEN RAIN WILL END.

ALL THE MODELS AGREE IT WILL END RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS
AND MAV MOSTLY KILL IT AS SOON AS 12Z. THAT LOOKS TOO FAST
CONSIDERING NO OTHER MODEL...INCLUDING THE RAPID REFRESH AND RAP40 IS
SO QUICK. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE POPS FROM THE MET LOOK BEST
IN TERMS OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AFTER 12Z. THEY WILL NEED TO BE
SCALED DOWN RAPIDLY SO DRY WEATHER IS WIDELY ESTABLISHED BY 18Z.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SNOW MAY DEVELOP BEFORE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. THIS IS IFFY CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
30S WELL UPSTREAM AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE AMBIVALENT ABOUT SNOW
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. IN OTHER WORDS...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SNOW AND THE FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THAT.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...TODAYS HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO
WHATEVER TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING AT 12Z. THE MAV SEEMS TO CAPTURE
THIS FAIRLY WELL. THE CONSHORT MODEL DID A DECENT JOB OF HANDLING
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION YESTERDAY...AND WILL BE USED FOR THAT AGAIN

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TAF SITES AROUND THU 06Z AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS SHOULD START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH ONSET OF RAIN AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP.  ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH SOUTHERN INDIANA...SO WILL
NOT MENTION CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 260727
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
327 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHEN RAIN WILL END.

ALL THE MODELS AGREE IT WILL END RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS
AND MAV MOSTLY KILL IT AS SOON AS 12Z. THAT LOOKS TOO FAST
CONSIDERING NO OTHER MODEL...INCLUDING THE RAPID REFRESH AND RAP40 IS
SO QUICK. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE POPS FROM THE MET LOOK BEST
IN TERMS OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AFTER 12Z. THEY WILL NEED TO BE
SCALED DOWN RAPIDLY SO DRY WEATHER IS WIDELY ESTABLISHED BY 18Z.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SNOW MAY DEVELOP BEFORE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. THIS IS IFFY CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
30S WELL UPSTREAM AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE AMBIVALENT ABOUT SNOW
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. IN OTHER WORDS...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SNOW AND THE FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THAT.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...TODAYS HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO
WHATEVER TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING AT 12Z. THE MAV SEEMS TO CAPTURE
THIS FAIRLY WELL. THE CONSHORT MODEL DID A DECENT JOB OF HANDLING
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION YESTERDAY...AND WILL BE USED FOR THAT AGAIN

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TAF SITES AROUND THU 06Z AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS SHOULD START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH ONSET OF RAIN AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP.  ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH SOUTHERN INDIANA...SO WILL
NOT MENTION CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 260624
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHEN RAIN WILL END.

ALL THE MODELS AGREE IT WILL END RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS
AND MAV MOSTLY KILL IT AS SOON AS 12Z. THAT LOOKS TOO FAST
CONSIDERING NO OTHER MODEL...INCLUDING THE RAPID REFRESH AND RAP40 IS
SO QUICK. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE POPS FROM THE MET LOOK BEST
IN TERMS OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AFTER 12Z. THEY WILL NEED TO BE
SCALED DOWN RAPIDLY SO DRY WEATHER IS WIDELY ESTABLISHED BY 18Z.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SNOW MAY DEVELOP BEFORE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. THIS IS IFFY CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
30S WELL UPSTREAM AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE AMBIVALENT ABOUT SNOW
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. IN OTHER WORDS...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SNOW AND THE FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THAT.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...TODAYS HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO
WHATEVER TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING AT 12Z. THE MAV SEEMS TO CAPTURE
THIS FAIRLY WELL. THE CONSHORT MODEL DID A DECENT JOB OF HANDLING
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION YESTERDAY...AND WILL BE USED FOR THAT AGAIN

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TAF SITES AROUND THU 06Z AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS SHOULD START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH ONSET OF RAIN AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP.  ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH SOUTHERN INDIANA...SO WILL
NOT MENTION CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 260624
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHEN RAIN WILL END.

ALL THE MODELS AGREE IT WILL END RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS
AND MAV MOSTLY KILL IT AS SOON AS 12Z. THAT LOOKS TOO FAST
CONSIDERING NO OTHER MODEL...INCLUDING THE RAPID REFRESH AND RAP40 IS
SO QUICK. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE POPS FROM THE MET LOOK BEST
IN TERMS OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AFTER 12Z. THEY WILL NEED TO BE
SCALED DOWN RAPIDLY SO DRY WEATHER IS WIDELY ESTABLISHED BY 18Z.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SNOW MAY DEVELOP BEFORE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. THIS IS IFFY CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
30S WELL UPSTREAM AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE AMBIVALENT ABOUT SNOW
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. IN OTHER WORDS...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SNOW AND THE FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THAT.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...TODAYS HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO
WHATEVER TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING AT 12Z. THE MAV SEEMS TO CAPTURE
THIS FAIRLY WELL. THE CONSHORT MODEL DID A DECENT JOB OF HANDLING
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION YESTERDAY...AND WILL BE USED FOR THAT AGAIN

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TAF SITES AROUND THU 06Z AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS SHOULD START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH ONSET OF RAIN AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP.  ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH SOUTHERN INDIANA...SO WILL
NOT MENTION CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 260624
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHEN RAIN WILL END.

ALL THE MODELS AGREE IT WILL END RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS
AND MAV MOSTLY KILL IT AS SOON AS 12Z. THAT LOOKS TOO FAST
CONSIDERING NO OTHER MODEL...INCLUDING THE RAPID REFRESH AND RAP40 IS
SO QUICK. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE POPS FROM THE MET LOOK BEST
IN TERMS OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AFTER 12Z. THEY WILL NEED TO BE
SCALED DOWN RAPIDLY SO DRY WEATHER IS WIDELY ESTABLISHED BY 18Z.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SNOW MAY DEVELOP BEFORE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. THIS IS IFFY CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
30S WELL UPSTREAM AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE AMBIVALENT ABOUT SNOW
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. IN OTHER WORDS...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SNOW AND THE FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THAT.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...TODAYS HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO
WHATEVER TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING AT 12Z. THE MAV SEEMS TO CAPTURE
THIS FAIRLY WELL. THE CONSHORT MODEL DID A DECENT JOB OF HANDLING
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION YESTERDAY...AND WILL BE USED FOR THAT AGAIN

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TAF SITES AROUND THU 06Z AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS SHOULD START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH ONSET OF RAIN AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP.  ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH SOUTHERN INDIANA...SO WILL
NOT MENTION CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 260624
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHEN RAIN WILL END.

ALL THE MODELS AGREE IT WILL END RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS
AND MAV MOSTLY KILL IT AS SOON AS 12Z. THAT LOOKS TOO FAST
CONSIDERING NO OTHER MODEL...INCLUDING THE RAPID REFRESH AND RAP40 IS
SO QUICK. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE POPS FROM THE MET LOOK BEST
IN TERMS OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AFTER 12Z. THEY WILL NEED TO BE
SCALED DOWN RAPIDLY SO DRY WEATHER IS WIDELY ESTABLISHED BY 18Z.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SNOW MAY DEVELOP BEFORE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. THIS IS IFFY CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
30S WELL UPSTREAM AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE AMBIVALENT ABOUT SNOW
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. IN OTHER WORDS...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SNOW AND THE FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THAT.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...TODAYS HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO
WHATEVER TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING AT 12Z. THE MAV SEEMS TO CAPTURE
THIS FAIRLY WELL. THE CONSHORT MODEL DID A DECENT JOB OF HANDLING
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION YESTERDAY...AND WILL BE USED FOR THAT AGAIN

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TAF SITES AROUND THU 06Z AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS SHOULD START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH ONSET OF RAIN AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP.  ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH SOUTHERN INDIANA...SO WILL
NOT MENTION CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 260456
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1256 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
KENTUCKY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  ON THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ON
TO THE EAST.

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE.  FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND SUNDAY AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF A FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
THE FRONT...SO CONTINUED HIGH POPS...WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE TONIGHT.
ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS AS NEEDED BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS SHOW ONLY
VERY LOW CAPE AT ANY LEVEL MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...SO DO
NOT FEEL SEVERE WEATHER IS A THREAT. STORMS THAT CROSS THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THOUGH AS MOISTURE WORKS
NORTH WITH THE WAVE. HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. CONTINUED WITH THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. UPDATED GRIDS ARE OUT
BUT EARLIER ZFP STILL LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SATELLITE INDICATES LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
THE LOW CLOUDS TO THIN OUT DURING THE EVENING WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE.  MODELS PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH 03Z AND ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO ABOUT 06Z-08Z AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS AFTER THAT
ESPECIALLY AFTER THAT.

HPC INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER ACROSS OUR
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND SPC INDICATES THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT 2/3 OF THE AMOUNT NEEDED TO
CAUSE FLOODING SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT INSTEAD INDICATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
THE NAM MODEL IN BUFKIT INDICATES SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KLAF AND GRISSOM TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL MENTION MIXED PRECIPITATION
KOKOMO TO LAFAYETTE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE NORTH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HPC INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTH.  BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL KEEP
ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

FINALLY PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE SOME SUN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
40S OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. MODELS
INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -13 CELSIUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION MAY
PRODUCE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BOTH DAYS WHICH
IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TAF SITES AROUND THU 06Z AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS SHOULD START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH ONSET OF RAIN AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP.  ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH SOUTHERN INDIANA...SO WILL
NOT MENTION CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 260456
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1256 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
KENTUCKY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  ON THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ON
TO THE EAST.

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE.  FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND SUNDAY AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF A FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
THE FRONT...SO CONTINUED HIGH POPS...WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE TONIGHT.
ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS AS NEEDED BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS SHOW ONLY
VERY LOW CAPE AT ANY LEVEL MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...SO DO
NOT FEEL SEVERE WEATHER IS A THREAT. STORMS THAT CROSS THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THOUGH AS MOISTURE WORKS
NORTH WITH THE WAVE. HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. CONTINUED WITH THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. UPDATED GRIDS ARE OUT
BUT EARLIER ZFP STILL LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SATELLITE INDICATES LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
THE LOW CLOUDS TO THIN OUT DURING THE EVENING WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE.  MODELS PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH 03Z AND ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO ABOUT 06Z-08Z AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS AFTER THAT
ESPECIALLY AFTER THAT.

HPC INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER ACROSS OUR
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND SPC INDICATES THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT 2/3 OF THE AMOUNT NEEDED TO
CAUSE FLOODING SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT INSTEAD INDICATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
THE NAM MODEL IN BUFKIT INDICATES SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KLAF AND GRISSOM TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL MENTION MIXED PRECIPITATION
KOKOMO TO LAFAYETTE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE NORTH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HPC INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTH.  BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL KEEP
ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

FINALLY PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE SOME SUN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
40S OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. MODELS
INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -13 CELSIUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION MAY
PRODUCE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BOTH DAYS WHICH
IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TAF SITES AROUND THU 06Z AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS SHOULD START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH ONSET OF RAIN AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP.  ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH SOUTHERN INDIANA...SO WILL
NOT MENTION CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 260213
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1013 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
KENTUCKY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  ON THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ON
TO THE EAST.

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE.  FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND SUNDAY AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF A FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
THE FRONT...SO CONTINUED HIGH POPS...WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE TONIGHT.
ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS AS NEEDED BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS SHOW ONLY
VERY LOW CAPE AT ANY LEVEL MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...SO DO
NOT FEEL SEVERE WEATHER IS A THREAT. STORMS THAT CROSS THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THOUGH AS MOISTURE WORKS
NORTH WITH THE WAVE. HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. CONTINUED WITH THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. UPDATED GRIDS ARE OUT
BUT EARLIER ZFP STILL LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SATELLITE INDICATES LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
THE LOW CLOUDS TO THIN OUT DURING THE EVENING WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE.  MODELS PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH 03Z AND ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO ABOUT 06Z-08Z AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS AFTER THAT
ESPECIALLY AFTER THAT.

HPC INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER ACROSS OUR
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND SPC INDICATES THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT 2/3 OF THE AMOUNT NEEDED TO
CAUSE FLOODING SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT INSTEAD INDICATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
THE NAM MODEL IN BUFKIT INDICATES SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KLAF AND GRISSOM TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL MENTION MIXED PRECIPITATION
KOKOMO TO LAFAYETTE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE NORTH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HPC INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTH.  BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL KEEP
ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

FINALLY PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE SOME SUN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
40S OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. MODELS
INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -13 CELSIUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION MAY
PRODUCE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BOTH DAYS WHICH
IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/03Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1011 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATE...
NO FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES AT KIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL IMPACT TAF SITES TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO START SPREADING INTO TAF SITES AFTER THU 06Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD
START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ANY TIME AFTER THAT AS CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES DROP. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WERE NOT REACHED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME...BEST CHANCES WILL BE
SOUTH OF TAF SITES.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 260213
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1013 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
KENTUCKY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  ON THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ON
TO THE EAST.

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE.  FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND SUNDAY AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF A FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
THE FRONT...SO CONTINUED HIGH POPS...WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE TONIGHT.
ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS AS NEEDED BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS SHOW ONLY
VERY LOW CAPE AT ANY LEVEL MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...SO DO
NOT FEEL SEVERE WEATHER IS A THREAT. STORMS THAT CROSS THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THOUGH AS MOISTURE WORKS
NORTH WITH THE WAVE. HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. CONTINUED WITH THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. UPDATED GRIDS ARE OUT
BUT EARLIER ZFP STILL LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SATELLITE INDICATES LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
THE LOW CLOUDS TO THIN OUT DURING THE EVENING WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE.  MODELS PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH 03Z AND ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO ABOUT 06Z-08Z AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS AFTER THAT
ESPECIALLY AFTER THAT.

HPC INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER ACROSS OUR
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND SPC INDICATES THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT 2/3 OF THE AMOUNT NEEDED TO
CAUSE FLOODING SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT INSTEAD INDICATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
THE NAM MODEL IN BUFKIT INDICATES SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KLAF AND GRISSOM TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL MENTION MIXED PRECIPITATION
KOKOMO TO LAFAYETTE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE NORTH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HPC INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTH.  BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL KEEP
ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

FINALLY PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE SOME SUN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
40S OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. MODELS
INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -13 CELSIUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION MAY
PRODUCE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BOTH DAYS WHICH
IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/03Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1011 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATE...
NO FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES AT KIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL IMPACT TAF SITES TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO START SPREADING INTO TAF SITES AFTER THU 06Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD
START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ANY TIME AFTER THAT AS CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES DROP. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WERE NOT REACHED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME...BEST CHANCES WILL BE
SOUTH OF TAF SITES.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 260210
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1010 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
KENTUCKY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  ON THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ON
TO THE EAST.

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE.  FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND SUNDAY AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF A FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
THE FRONT...SO CONTINUED HIGH POPS...WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE TONIGHT.
ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS AS NEEDED BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS SHOW ONLY
VERY LOW CAPE AT ANY LEVEL MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...SO DO
NOT FEEL SEVERE WEATHER IS A THREAT. STORMS THAT CROSS THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THOUGH AS MOISTURE WORKS
NORTH WITH THE WAVE. HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. CONTINUED WITH THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. UPDATED GRIDS ARE OUT
BUT EARLIER ZFP STILL LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SATELLITE INDICATES LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
THE LOW CLOUDS TO THIN OUT DURING THE EVENING WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE.  MODELS PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH 03Z AND ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO ABOUT 06Z-08Z AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS AFTER THAT
ESPECIALLY AFTER THAT.

HPC INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER ACROSS OUR
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND SPC INDICATES THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT 2/3 OF THE AMOUNT NEEDED TO
CAUSE FLOODING SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT INSTEAD INDICATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
THE NAM MODEL IN BUFKIT INDICATES SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KLAF AND GRISSOM TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL MENTION MIXED PRECIPITATION
KOKOMO TO LAFAYETTE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE NORTH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HPC INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTH.  BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL KEEP
ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

FINALLY PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE SOME SUN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
40S OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. MODELS
INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -13 CELSIUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION MAY
PRODUCE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BOTH DAYS WHICH
IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/00Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 654 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL IMPACT TAF SITES TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO START SPREADING INTO TAF SITES AFTER THU 06Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD
START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ANY TIME AFTER THAT AS CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES DROP. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WERE NOT REACHED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME...BEST CHANCES WILL BE
SOUTH OF TAF SITES.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 260210
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1010 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
KENTUCKY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  ON THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ON
TO THE EAST.

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE.  FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND SUNDAY AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF A FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
THE FRONT...SO CONTINUED HIGH POPS...WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE TONIGHT.
ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS AS NEEDED BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS SHOW ONLY
VERY LOW CAPE AT ANY LEVEL MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...SO DO
NOT FEEL SEVERE WEATHER IS A THREAT. STORMS THAT CROSS THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THOUGH AS MOISTURE WORKS
NORTH WITH THE WAVE. HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. CONTINUED WITH THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. UPDATED GRIDS ARE OUT
BUT EARLIER ZFP STILL LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SATELLITE INDICATES LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
THE LOW CLOUDS TO THIN OUT DURING THE EVENING WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE.  MODELS PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH 03Z AND ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO ABOUT 06Z-08Z AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS AFTER THAT
ESPECIALLY AFTER THAT.

HPC INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER ACROSS OUR
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND SPC INDICATES THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT 2/3 OF THE AMOUNT NEEDED TO
CAUSE FLOODING SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT INSTEAD INDICATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
THE NAM MODEL IN BUFKIT INDICATES SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KLAF AND GRISSOM TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL MENTION MIXED PRECIPITATION
KOKOMO TO LAFAYETTE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE NORTH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HPC INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTH.  BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL KEEP
ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

FINALLY PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE SOME SUN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
40S OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. MODELS
INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -13 CELSIUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION MAY
PRODUCE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BOTH DAYS WHICH
IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/00Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 654 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL IMPACT TAF SITES TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO START SPREADING INTO TAF SITES AFTER THU 06Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD
START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ANY TIME AFTER THAT AS CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES DROP. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WERE NOT REACHED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME...BEST CHANCES WILL BE
SOUTH OF TAF SITES.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 252328
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
728 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
KENTUCKY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  ON THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ON
TO THE EAST.

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE.  FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND SUNDAY AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SATELLITE INDICATES LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
THE LOW CLOUDS TO THIN OUT DURING THE EVENING WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE.  MODELS PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH 03Z AND ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO ABOUT 06Z-08Z AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS AFTER THAT
ESPECIALLY AFTER THAT.

HPC INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER ACROSS OUR
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND SPC INDICATES THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT 2/3 OF THE AMOUNT NEEDED TO
CAUSE FLOODING SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT INSTEAD INDICATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
THE NAM MODEL IN BUFKIT INDICATES SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KLAF AND GRISSOM TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL MENTION MIXED PRECIPITATION
KOKOMO TO LAFAYETTE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE NORTH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HPC INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTH.  BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL KEEP
ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

FINALLY PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE SOME SUN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
40S OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. MODELS
INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -13 CELSIUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION MAY
PRODUCE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BOTH DAYS WHICH
IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/00Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 654 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL IMPACT TAF SITES TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO START SPREADING INTO TAF SITES AFTER THU 06Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD
START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ANY TIME AFTER THAT AS CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES DROP. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WERE NOT REACHED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME...BEST CHANCES WILL BE
SOUTH OF TAF SITES.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









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