Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KIND 301038
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
636 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE EAST. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF
DRY WEATHER...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SET TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES...ACROSS ILLINOIS TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINED IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. DEW POINTS WERE
HOLDING IN THE MOIST MIDDLE 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORT WAVE ACROSS MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS PUSHING NORTHEAST. RADAR
SHOWS SOME SCT CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI...ALBEIT IT
WAS ONLY GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND STORMS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHTS SHOW DEEP SATURATION ARRIVING BY LATE AFTERNOON. GFS
AND NAM SHOW STRONG FORCING ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT
AFTER 18Z...TIMING WELL WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING AROUND 100 J/KG OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER 1.75 INCHES. LOWER LEVEL Q VECTORS SHOW BEST
CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA...MAINLY LATE IN
THE DAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN ALL OF THE AVAILABLE
FORCING AND MOISTURE...WILL TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS IN MOST
CASES. AS THE BEST FORCING FAILS TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON...WILL TRY AND RAMP UP POPS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH
THE MOST DRY HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND TOWARD
PERSISTENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
HOLD OFF THE LONGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

WET WEATHER LOOKS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA
OVERNIGHT. GFS AND NAM ALSO SUGGEST THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF RAIN BEING
FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. STILL ALL
AREA SHOULD GET SOME PRECIP THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES.
VERY GOOD LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES. TIME HEIGHTS ALSO SHOW BEST FORCING AT 00Z THROUGH
ABOUT 06Z AS FORCING ALOFT PASSES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
SATURATION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD 100 POPS FOR MOST AREAS. ALONG
WITH TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW FORCING ENDING QUICKLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE THE GFS AND NAM DEPICT THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT EXITING
QUICKLY. SOME TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF LOWER LEVEL CLOUD LINGERING
THROUGH THE DAY WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT INDIANA AND PUSH TOWARD NORTHEAST
OHIO...KEEPING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. GIVEN THE LOSS OF FORCING...HEAVIER RAINS
SHOULD END ON SUNDAY RATHER QUICKLY...BUT GIVEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS...A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND POPS AT OR BELOW
MAVMOS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST WHERE FORCING IS LOST THE
SOONEST. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND AT OR BELOW MAVMOS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUD AND COOL NORTH WINDS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTS DRY...NW FLOW
IN PLACE ALOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BE PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW OF DRY
CONTINENTAL FLOW TO INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN
IN PLACE ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE...GOOD
SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD AS
DRY FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW...A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS AND METMOS SHOULD WORK NICELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE EXTENDED IN DEVELOPING A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...WITH RIDING BUILDING OVER
THE TOP OF THE CUTOFF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. BY LATE NEXT
WEEK...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AS TO THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS
CUTOFF. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES DRIFT THIS CUTOFF SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A FEW MEMBERS LIFT THIS
FEATURE NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT FRIDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT FRIDAY TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF
THE UPPER LOW. A POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATE NEXT WEEK MAY ALSO ENHANCE POPS BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 301200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 636 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST
INDIANA HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE KLAF TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT
301300Z. MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST IF INCREASING
TREND CONTINUES.

OTHERWISE...WELL DEFINED VORTICITY MAX CURRENTLY OVER ARKANSAS IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH AN AIR MASS
CHARACTERIZED BY RATHER LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE
CAP...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER THE TAF
SITES LATER TODAY. MAY SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS
EARLY AS 301800Z...BUT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION LOOKS TO ARRIVE
AFTER ABOUT 302000Z WITH BETTER LIFT. IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
AND GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR THE CONVECTION. CB
BASED AROUND 025.

CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE BEYOND 310000Z AS UPPER FEATURE
AND A SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SURFACE WINDS 170-200 DEGREES AT 10-14 KTS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING.
KLAF SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT TO 010-030 DEGREES TOWARDS
310000Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 301038
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
636 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE EAST. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF
DRY WEATHER...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SET TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES...ACROSS ILLINOIS TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINED IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. DEW POINTS WERE
HOLDING IN THE MOIST MIDDLE 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORT WAVE ACROSS MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS PUSHING NORTHEAST. RADAR
SHOWS SOME SCT CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI...ALBEIT IT
WAS ONLY GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND STORMS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHTS SHOW DEEP SATURATION ARRIVING BY LATE AFTERNOON. GFS
AND NAM SHOW STRONG FORCING ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT
AFTER 18Z...TIMING WELL WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING AROUND 100 J/KG OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER 1.75 INCHES. LOWER LEVEL Q VECTORS SHOW BEST
CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA...MAINLY LATE IN
THE DAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN ALL OF THE AVAILABLE
FORCING AND MOISTURE...WILL TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS IN MOST
CASES. AS THE BEST FORCING FAILS TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON...WILL TRY AND RAMP UP POPS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH
THE MOST DRY HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND TOWARD
PERSISTENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
HOLD OFF THE LONGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

WET WEATHER LOOKS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA
OVERNIGHT. GFS AND NAM ALSO SUGGEST THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF RAIN BEING
FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. STILL ALL
AREA SHOULD GET SOME PRECIP THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES.
VERY GOOD LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES. TIME HEIGHTS ALSO SHOW BEST FORCING AT 00Z THROUGH
ABOUT 06Z AS FORCING ALOFT PASSES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
SATURATION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD 100 POPS FOR MOST AREAS. ALONG
WITH TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW FORCING ENDING QUICKLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE THE GFS AND NAM DEPICT THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT EXITING
QUICKLY. SOME TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF LOWER LEVEL CLOUD LINGERING
THROUGH THE DAY WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT INDIANA AND PUSH TOWARD NORTHEAST
OHIO...KEEPING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. GIVEN THE LOSS OF FORCING...HEAVIER RAINS
SHOULD END ON SUNDAY RATHER QUICKLY...BUT GIVEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS...A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND POPS AT OR BELOW
MAVMOS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST WHERE FORCING IS LOST THE
SOONEST. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND AT OR BELOW MAVMOS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUD AND COOL NORTH WINDS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTS DRY...NW FLOW
IN PLACE ALOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BE PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW OF DRY
CONTINENTAL FLOW TO INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN
IN PLACE ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE...GOOD
SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD AS
DRY FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW...A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS AND METMOS SHOULD WORK NICELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE EXTENDED IN DEVELOPING A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...WITH RIDING BUILDING OVER
THE TOP OF THE CUTOFF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. BY LATE NEXT
WEEK...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AS TO THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS
CUTOFF. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES DRIFT THIS CUTOFF SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A FEW MEMBERS LIFT THIS
FEATURE NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT FRIDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT FRIDAY TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF
THE UPPER LOW. A POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATE NEXT WEEK MAY ALSO ENHANCE POPS BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 301200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 636 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST
INDIANA HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE KLAF TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT
301300Z. MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST IF INCREASING
TREND CONTINUES.

OTHERWISE...WELL DEFINED VORTICITY MAX CURRENTLY OVER ARKANSAS IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH AN AIR MASS
CHARACTERIZED BY RATHER LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE
CAP...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER THE TAF
SITES LATER TODAY. MAY SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS
EARLY AS 301800Z...BUT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION LOOKS TO ARRIVE
AFTER ABOUT 302000Z WITH BETTER LIFT. IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
AND GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR THE CONVECTION. CB
BASED AROUND 025.

CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE BEYOND 310000Z AS UPPER FEATURE
AND A SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SURFACE WINDS 170-200 DEGREES AT 10-14 KTS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING.
KLAF SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT TO 010-030 DEGREES TOWARDS
310000Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 300834
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
432 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE EAST. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF
DRY WEATHER...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SET TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES...ACROSS ILLINOIS TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINED IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. DEW POINTS WERE
HOLDING IN THE MOIST MIDDLE 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORT WAVE ACROSS MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS PUSHING NORTHEAST. RADAR
SHOWS SOME SCT CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI...ALBEIT IT
WAS ONLY GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND STORMS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHTS SHOW DEEP SATURATION ARRIVING BY LATE AFTERNOON. GFS
AND NAM SHOW STRONG FORCING ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT
AFTER 18Z...TIMING WELL WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING AROUND 100 J/KG OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER 1.75 INCHES. LOWER LEVEL Q VECTORS SHOW BEST
CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA...MAINLY LATE IN
THE DAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN ALL OF THE AVAILABLE
FORCING AND MOISTURE...WILL TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS IN MOST
CASES. AS THE BEST FORCING FAILS TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON...WILL TRY AND RAMP UP POPS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH
THE MOST DRY HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND TOWARD
PERSISTENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
HOLD OFF THE LONGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

WET WEATHER LOOKS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA
OVERNIGHT. GFS AND NAM ALSO SUGGEST THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF RAIN BEING
FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. STILL ALL
AREA SHOULD GET SOME PRECIP THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES.
VERY GOOD LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES. TIME HEIGHTS ALSO SHOW BEST FORCING AT 00Z THROUGH
ABOUT 06Z AS FORCING ALOFT PASSES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
SATURATION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD 100 POPS FOR MOST AREAS. ALONG
WITH TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW FORCING ENDING QUICKLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE THE GFS AND NAM DEPICT THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT EXITING
QUICKLY. SOME TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF LOWER LEVEL CLOUD LINGERING
THROUGH THE DAY WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT INDIANA AND PUSH TOWARD NORTHEAST
OHIO...KEEPING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. GIVEN THE LOSS OF FORCING...HEAVIER RAINS
SHOULD END ON SUNDAY RATHER QUICKLY...BUT GIVEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS...A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND POPS AT OR BELOW
MAVMOS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST WHERE FORCING IS LOST THE
SOONEST. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND AT OR BELOW MAVMOS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUD AND COOL NORTH WINDS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTS DRY...NW FLOW
IN PLACE ALOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BE PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW OF DRY
CONTINENTAL FLOW TO INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN
IN PLACE ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE...GOOD
SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD AS
DRY FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW...A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS AND METMOS SHOULD WORK NICELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE EXTENDED IN DEVELOPING A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...WITH RIDING BUILDING OVER
THE TOP OF THE CUTOFF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. BY LATE NEXT
WEEK...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AS TO THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS
CUTOFF. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES DRIFT THIS CUTOFF SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A FEW MEMBERS LIFT THIS
FEATURE NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT FRIDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT FRIDAY TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF
THE UPPER LOW. A POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATE NEXT WEEK MAY ALSO ENHANCE POPS BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 300900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY NOT BEGIN IMPACTING THE KIND TERMINAL AS
EARLY AS WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. WILL BACK OFF ON THE
TIMING OF THE SHOWER POTENTIAL ON THE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LEFTOVER CONVECTION PRIOR TO START OF TAF FORECAST HAS FINALLY
DISSIPATED AFTER INTERACTION WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND REMAINING
AVAILABLE ENERGY.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION PRETTY CERTAIN OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
LATER TODAY AS SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CAP MAY START
TO SEE DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS 301600Z. HOWEVER NO CLEAR CUT TRIGGER
OR FOCUS AT THIS TIME TO PIN DOWN LOCATION AND TIMING. AS A
RESULT...WILL JUST GO WITH A CB SIGNIFICANT CLOUD IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINALS BY MID DAY WITH BASES AROUND 030. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY
CONVECTION AS TERRE HAUTE EXPERIENCED EARLIER FRIDAY EVENING.

MODELS STILL VARY ON TRACK OF SURFACE LOW WHICH DETERMINES HOW WINDS
WILL SHIFT SATURDAY EVENING. IF LOW TRACKS NORTH OF TERMINALS
SOUTHWEST WINDS SWITCH TO NORTHWEST AND NORTH. IF LOW TRACKS SOUTH
OF TERMINALS...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND TO BACK TO SOUTHEAST BEFORE
SWINGING TO NORTH WITH LOWS PASSAGE.

STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER EXPECTED FROM 310000Z THROUGH
0900Z-1200Z IN WRAP-AROUND PORTION OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH. CLOUD DECKS WILL DROP TO IFR DURING MODERATE RAIN AS COLDER
AIR DRIVES IN ON NORTH WIND SOMETIME AFTER 310300Z.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FOR KIND. CUMULUS HAVE DISSIPATED. SMALL
CHANCE KHUF SHOWERS MAY PROGRESS INTO AREA IN SEVERAL HOURS SO
WILL MONITOR.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...TUCEK/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 300834
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
432 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE EAST. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF
DRY WEATHER...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SET TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES...ACROSS ILLINOIS TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINED IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. DEW POINTS WERE
HOLDING IN THE MOIST MIDDLE 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORT WAVE ACROSS MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS PUSHING NORTHEAST. RADAR
SHOWS SOME SCT CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI...ALBEIT IT
WAS ONLY GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND STORMS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHTS SHOW DEEP SATURATION ARRIVING BY LATE AFTERNOON. GFS
AND NAM SHOW STRONG FORCING ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT
AFTER 18Z...TIMING WELL WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING AROUND 100 J/KG OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER 1.75 INCHES. LOWER LEVEL Q VECTORS SHOW BEST
CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA...MAINLY LATE IN
THE DAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN ALL OF THE AVAILABLE
FORCING AND MOISTURE...WILL TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS IN MOST
CASES. AS THE BEST FORCING FAILS TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON...WILL TRY AND RAMP UP POPS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH
THE MOST DRY HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND TOWARD
PERSISTENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
HOLD OFF THE LONGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

WET WEATHER LOOKS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA
OVERNIGHT. GFS AND NAM ALSO SUGGEST THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF RAIN BEING
FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. STILL ALL
AREA SHOULD GET SOME PRECIP THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES.
VERY GOOD LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES. TIME HEIGHTS ALSO SHOW BEST FORCING AT 00Z THROUGH
ABOUT 06Z AS FORCING ALOFT PASSES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
SATURATION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD 100 POPS FOR MOST AREAS. ALONG
WITH TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW FORCING ENDING QUICKLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE THE GFS AND NAM DEPICT THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT EXITING
QUICKLY. SOME TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF LOWER LEVEL CLOUD LINGERING
THROUGH THE DAY WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT INDIANA AND PUSH TOWARD NORTHEAST
OHIO...KEEPING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. GIVEN THE LOSS OF FORCING...HEAVIER RAINS
SHOULD END ON SUNDAY RATHER QUICKLY...BUT GIVEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS...A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND POPS AT OR BELOW
MAVMOS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST WHERE FORCING IS LOST THE
SOONEST. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND AT OR BELOW MAVMOS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUD AND COOL NORTH WINDS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTS DRY...NW FLOW
IN PLACE ALOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BE PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW OF DRY
CONTINENTAL FLOW TO INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN
IN PLACE ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE...GOOD
SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD AS
DRY FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW...A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS AND METMOS SHOULD WORK NICELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE EXTENDED IN DEVELOPING A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...WITH RIDING BUILDING OVER
THE TOP OF THE CUTOFF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. BY LATE NEXT
WEEK...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AS TO THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS
CUTOFF. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES DRIFT THIS CUTOFF SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A FEW MEMBERS LIFT THIS
FEATURE NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT FRIDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT FRIDAY TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF
THE UPPER LOW. A POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATE NEXT WEEK MAY ALSO ENHANCE POPS BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 300900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY NOT BEGIN IMPACTING THE KIND TERMINAL AS
EARLY AS WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. WILL BACK OFF ON THE
TIMING OF THE SHOWER POTENTIAL ON THE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LEFTOVER CONVECTION PRIOR TO START OF TAF FORECAST HAS FINALLY
DISSIPATED AFTER INTERACTION WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND REMAINING
AVAILABLE ENERGY.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION PRETTY CERTAIN OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
LATER TODAY AS SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CAP MAY START
TO SEE DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS 301600Z. HOWEVER NO CLEAR CUT TRIGGER
OR FOCUS AT THIS TIME TO PIN DOWN LOCATION AND TIMING. AS A
RESULT...WILL JUST GO WITH A CB SIGNIFICANT CLOUD IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINALS BY MID DAY WITH BASES AROUND 030. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY
CONVECTION AS TERRE HAUTE EXPERIENCED EARLIER FRIDAY EVENING.

MODELS STILL VARY ON TRACK OF SURFACE LOW WHICH DETERMINES HOW WINDS
WILL SHIFT SATURDAY EVENING. IF LOW TRACKS NORTH OF TERMINALS
SOUTHWEST WINDS SWITCH TO NORTHWEST AND NORTH. IF LOW TRACKS SOUTH
OF TERMINALS...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND TO BACK TO SOUTHEAST BEFORE
SWINGING TO NORTH WITH LOWS PASSAGE.

STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER EXPECTED FROM 310000Z THROUGH
0900Z-1200Z IN WRAP-AROUND PORTION OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH. CLOUD DECKS WILL DROP TO IFR DURING MODERATE RAIN AS COLDER
AIR DRIVES IN ON NORTH WIND SOMETIME AFTER 310300Z.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FOR KIND. CUMULUS HAVE DISSIPATED. SMALL
CHANCE KHUF SHOWERS MAY PROGRESS INTO AREA IN SEVERAL HOURS SO
WILL MONITOR.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...TUCEK/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 300631
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
231 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE EAST. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF
DRY WEATHER...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SET TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES...ACROSS ILLINOIS TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINED IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. DEW POINTS WERE
HOLDING IN THE MOIST MIDDLE 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORT WAVE ACROSS MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS PUSHING NORTHEAST. RADAR
SHOWS SOME SCT CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI...ALBEIT IT
WAS ONLY GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND STORMS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHTS SHOW DEEP SATURATION ARRIVING BY LATE AFTERNOON. GFS
AND NAM SHOW STRONG FORCING ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT
AFTER 18Z...TIMING WELL WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING AROUND 100 J/KG OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER 1.75 INCHES. LOWER LEVEL Q VECTORS SHOW BEST
CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA...MAINLY LATE IN
THE DAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN ALL OF THE AVAILABLE
FORCING AND MOISTURE...WILL TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS IN MOST
CASES. AS THE BEST FORCING FAILS TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON...WILL TRY AND RAMP UP POPS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH
THE MOST DRY HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND TOWARD
PERSISTENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
HOLD OFF THE LONGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

WET WEATHER LOOKS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA
OVERNIGHT. GFS AND NAM ALSO SUGGEST THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF RAIN BEING
FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. STILL ALL
AREA SHOULD GET SOME PRECIP THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES.
VERY GOOD LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES. TIME HEIGHTS ALSO SHOW BEST FORCING AT 00Z THROUGH
ABOUT 06Z AS FORCING ALOFT PASSES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
SATURATION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD 100 POPS FOR MOST AREAS. ALONG
WITH TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW FORCING ENDING QUICKLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE THE GFS AND NAM DEPICT THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT EXITING
QUICKLY. SOME TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF LOWER LEVEL CLOUD LINGERING
THROUGH THE DAY WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT INDIANA AND PUSH TOWARD NORTHEAST
OHIO...KEEPING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. GIVEN THE LOSS OF FORCING...HEAVIER RAINS
SHOULD END ON SUNDAY RATHER QUICKLY...BUT GIVEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS...A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND POPS AT OR BELOW
MAVMOS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST WHERE FORCING IS LOST THE
SOONEST. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND AT OR BELOW MAVMOS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUD AND COOL NORTH WINDS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTS DRY...NW FLOW
IN PLACE ALOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BE PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW OF DRY
CONTINENTAL FLOW TO INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN
IN PLACE ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE...GOOD
SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD AS
DRY FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW...A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS AND METMOS SHOULD WORK NICELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE EXTENDED IN DEVELOPING A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...WITH RIDING BUILDING OVER
THE TOP OF THE CUTOFF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. BY LATE NEXT
WEEK...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AS TO THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS
CUTOFF. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES DRIFT THIS CUTOFF SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A FEW MEMBERS LIFT THIS
FEATURE NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT FRIDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT FRIDAY TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF
THE UPPER LOW. A POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATE NEXT WEEK MAY ALSO ENHANCE POPS BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 300600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

LEFTOVER CONVECTIION PRIOR TO START OF TAF FORECAST HAS FINALLY
DISSIPATED AFTER INTERACTION WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND REMAINING
AVAILABLE ENERGY.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION PRETTY CERTAIN OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
LATER TODAY AS SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CAP MAY START
TO SEE DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS 301600Z. HOWEVER NO CLEAR CUT TRIGGER
OR FOCUS AT THIS TIME TO PIN DOWN LOCATION AND TIMING. AS A
RESULT...WILL JUST GO WITH A CB SIGNIFICANT CLOUD IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINALS BY MID DAY WITH BASES AROUND 030. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY
CONVECTION AS TERRE HAUTE EXPERIENCED EARLIER FRIDAY EVENING.

MODELS STILL VARY ON TRACK OF SURFACE LOW WHICH DETERMINES HOW WINDS
WILL SHIFT SATURDAY EVENING. IF LOW TRACKS NORTH OF TERMINLAS
SOUTHWEST WINDS SWITCH TO NORTHWEST AND NORTH. IF LOW TRACKS SOUTH
OF TERMINALS...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND TO BACK TO SOUTHEAST BEFORE
SWINGING TO NORTH WITH LOWS PASSAGE.

STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER EXPECTED FROM 310000Z THROUGH
0900Z-1200Z IN WRAP-AROUND PORTION OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH. CLOUD DECKS WILL DROP TO IFR DURING MODERATE RAIN AS COLDER
AIR DRIVES IN ON NORTH WIND SOMETIME AFTER 310300Z.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FOR KIND. CUMULUS HAVE DISSIPATED. SMALL
CHANCE KHUF SHOWERS MAY PROGRESS INTO AREA IN SEVERAL HOURS SO
WILL MONITOR.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 300631
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
231 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE EAST. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF
DRY WEATHER...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SET TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES...ACROSS ILLINOIS TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINED IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. DEW POINTS WERE
HOLDING IN THE MOIST MIDDLE 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORT WAVE ACROSS MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS PUSHING NORTHEAST. RADAR
SHOWS SOME SCT CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI...ALBEIT IT
WAS ONLY GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND STORMS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHTS SHOW DEEP SATURATION ARRIVING BY LATE AFTERNOON. GFS
AND NAM SHOW STRONG FORCING ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT
AFTER 18Z...TIMING WELL WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING AROUND 100 J/KG OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER 1.75 INCHES. LOWER LEVEL Q VECTORS SHOW BEST
CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA...MAINLY LATE IN
THE DAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN ALL OF THE AVAILABLE
FORCING AND MOISTURE...WILL TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS IN MOST
CASES. AS THE BEST FORCING FAILS TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON...WILL TRY AND RAMP UP POPS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH
THE MOST DRY HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND TOWARD
PERSISTENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
HOLD OFF THE LONGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

WET WEATHER LOOKS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA
OVERNIGHT. GFS AND NAM ALSO SUGGEST THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF RAIN BEING
FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. STILL ALL
AREA SHOULD GET SOME PRECIP THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES.
VERY GOOD LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES. TIME HEIGHTS ALSO SHOW BEST FORCING AT 00Z THROUGH
ABOUT 06Z AS FORCING ALOFT PASSES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
SATURATION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD 100 POPS FOR MOST AREAS. ALONG
WITH TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW FORCING ENDING QUICKLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE THE GFS AND NAM DEPICT THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT EXITING
QUICKLY. SOME TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF LOWER LEVEL CLOUD LINGERING
THROUGH THE DAY WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT INDIANA AND PUSH TOWARD NORTHEAST
OHIO...KEEPING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. GIVEN THE LOSS OF FORCING...HEAVIER RAINS
SHOULD END ON SUNDAY RATHER QUICKLY...BUT GIVEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS...A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND POPS AT OR BELOW
MAVMOS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST WHERE FORCING IS LOST THE
SOONEST. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND AT OR BELOW MAVMOS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUD AND COOL NORTH WINDS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTS DRY...NW FLOW
IN PLACE ALOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BE PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW OF DRY
CONTINENTAL FLOW TO INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN
IN PLACE ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE...GOOD
SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD AS
DRY FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW...A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS AND METMOS SHOULD WORK NICELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE EXTENDED IN DEVELOPING A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...WITH RIDING BUILDING OVER
THE TOP OF THE CUTOFF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. BY LATE NEXT
WEEK...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AS TO THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS
CUTOFF. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES DRIFT THIS CUTOFF SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A FEW MEMBERS LIFT THIS
FEATURE NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT FRIDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT FRIDAY TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF
THE UPPER LOW. A POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATE NEXT WEEK MAY ALSO ENHANCE POPS BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 300600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

LEFTOVER CONVECTIION PRIOR TO START OF TAF FORECAST HAS FINALLY
DISSIPATED AFTER INTERACTION WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND REMAINING
AVAILABLE ENERGY.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION PRETTY CERTAIN OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
LATER TODAY AS SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CAP MAY START
TO SEE DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS 301600Z. HOWEVER NO CLEAR CUT TRIGGER
OR FOCUS AT THIS TIME TO PIN DOWN LOCATION AND TIMING. AS A
RESULT...WILL JUST GO WITH A CB SIGNIFICANT CLOUD IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINALS BY MID DAY WITH BASES AROUND 030. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY
CONVECTION AS TERRE HAUTE EXPERIENCED EARLIER FRIDAY EVENING.

MODELS STILL VARY ON TRACK OF SURFACE LOW WHICH DETERMINES HOW WINDS
WILL SHIFT SATURDAY EVENING. IF LOW TRACKS NORTH OF TERMINLAS
SOUTHWEST WINDS SWITCH TO NORTHWEST AND NORTH. IF LOW TRACKS SOUTH
OF TERMINALS...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND TO BACK TO SOUTHEAST BEFORE
SWINGING TO NORTH WITH LOWS PASSAGE.

STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER EXPECTED FROM 310000Z THROUGH
0900Z-1200Z IN WRAP-AROUND PORTION OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH. CLOUD DECKS WILL DROP TO IFR DURING MODERATE RAIN AS COLDER
AIR DRIVES IN ON NORTH WIND SOMETIME AFTER 310300Z.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FOR KIND. CUMULUS HAVE DISSIPATED. SMALL
CHANCE KHUF SHOWERS MAY PROGRESS INTO AREA IN SEVERAL HOURS SO
WILL MONITOR.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 300617
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
217 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE EAST. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF
DRY WEATHER...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SET TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES...ACROSS ILLINOIS TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINED IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. DEW POINTS WERE
HOLDING IN THE MOIST MIDDLE 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORT WAVE ACROSS MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS PUSHING NORTHEAST. RADAR
SHOWS SOME SCT CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI...ALBEIT IT
WAS ONLY GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND STORMS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHTS SHOW DEEP SATURATION ARRIVING BY LATE AFTERNOON. GFS
AND NAM SHOW STRONG FORCING ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT
AFTER 18Z...TIMING WELL WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING AROUND 100 J/KG OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER 1.75 INCHES. LOWER LEVEL Q VECTORS SHOW BEST
CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA...MAINLY LATE IN
THE DAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN ALL OF THE AVAILABLE
FORCING AND MOISTURE...WILL TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS IN MOST
CASES. AS THE BEST FORCING FAILS TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON...WILL TRY AND RAMP UP POPS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH
THE MOST DRY HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND TOWARD
PERSISTENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
HOLD OFF THE LONGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

WET WEATHER LOOKS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA
OVERNIGHT. GFS AND NAM ALSO SUGGEST THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF RAIN BEING
FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. STILL ALL
AREA SHOULD GET SOME PRECIP THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES.
VERY GOOD LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES. TIME HEIGHTS ALSO SHOW BEST FORCING AT 00Z THROUGH
ABOUT 06Z AS FORCING ALOFT PASSES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
SATURATION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD 100 POPS FOR MOST AREAS. ALONG
WITH TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW FORCING ENDING QUICKLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE THE GFS AND NAM DEPICT THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT EXITING
QUICKLY. SOME TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF LOWER LEVEL CLOUD LINGERING
THROUGH THE DAY WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT INDIANA AND PUSH TOWARD NORTHEAST
OHIO...KEEPING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. GIVEN THE LOSS OF FORCING...HEAVIER RAINS
SHOULD END ON SUNDAY RATHER QUICKLY...BUT GIVEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS...A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND POPS AT OR BELOW
MAVMOS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST WHERE FORCING IS LOST THE
SOONEST. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND AT OR BELOW MAVMOS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUD AND COOL NORTH WINDS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTS DRY...NW FLOW
IN PLACE ALOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BE PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW OF DRY
CONTINENTAL FLOW TO INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN
IN PLACE ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE...GOOD
SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD AS
DRY FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW...A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS AND METMOS SHOULD WORK NICELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO AGREEING
ON A WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH AND GETTING CUT OFF OVER
THE GULF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT MOISTURE/UPPER FORCING FROM THIS UPPER
LOW COULD SWING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE TO HELP THE FORCING OVERCOME THE
INHIBITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 300600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

LEFTOVER CONVECTIION PRIOR TO START OF TAF FORECAST HAS FINALLY
DISSIPATED AFTER INTERACTION WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND REMAINING
AVAILABLE ENERGY.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION PRETTY CERTAIN OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
LATER TODAY AS SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CAP MAY START
TO SEE DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS 301600Z. HOWEVER NO CLEAR CUT TRIGGER
OR FOCUS AT THIS TIME TO PIN DOWN LOCATION AND TIMING. AS A
RESULT...WILL JUST GO WITH A CB SIGNIFICANT CLOUD IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINALS BY MID DAY WITH BASES AROUND 030. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY
CONVECTION AS TERRE HAUTE EXPERIENCED EARLIER FRIDAY EVENING.

MODELS STILL VARY ON TRACK OF SURFACE LOW WHICH DETERMINES HOW WINDS
WILL SHIFT SATURDAY EVENING. IF LOW TRACKS NORTH OF TERMINLAS
SOUTHWEST WINDS SWITCH TO NORTHWEST AND NORTH. IF LOW TRACKS SOUTH
OF TERMINALS...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND TO BACK TO SOUTHEAST BEFORE
SWINGING TO NORTH WITH LOWS PASSAGE.

STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER EXPECTED FROM 310000Z THROUGH
0900Z-1200Z IN WRAP-AROUND PORTION OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH. CLOUD DECKS WILL DROP TO IFR DURING MODERATE RAIN AS COLDER
AIR DRIVES IN ON NORTH WIND SOMETIME AFTER 310300Z.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FOR KIND. CUMULUS HAVE DISSIPATED. SMALL
CHANCE KHUF SHOWERS MAY PROGRESS INTO AREA IN SEVERAL HOURS SO
WILL MONITOR.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 300617
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
217 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE EAST. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF
DRY WEATHER...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SET TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES...ACROSS ILLINOIS TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINED IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. DEW POINTS WERE
HOLDING IN THE MOIST MIDDLE 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORT WAVE ACROSS MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS PUSHING NORTHEAST. RADAR
SHOWS SOME SCT CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI...ALBEIT IT
WAS ONLY GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND STORMS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHTS SHOW DEEP SATURATION ARRIVING BY LATE AFTERNOON. GFS
AND NAM SHOW STRONG FORCING ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT
AFTER 18Z...TIMING WELL WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING AROUND 100 J/KG OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER 1.75 INCHES. LOWER LEVEL Q VECTORS SHOW BEST
CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA...MAINLY LATE IN
THE DAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN ALL OF THE AVAILABLE
FORCING AND MOISTURE...WILL TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS IN MOST
CASES. AS THE BEST FORCING FAILS TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON...WILL TRY AND RAMP UP POPS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH
THE MOST DRY HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND TOWARD
PERSISTENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
HOLD OFF THE LONGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

WET WEATHER LOOKS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA
OVERNIGHT. GFS AND NAM ALSO SUGGEST THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF RAIN BEING
FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. STILL ALL
AREA SHOULD GET SOME PRECIP THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES.
VERY GOOD LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES. TIME HEIGHTS ALSO SHOW BEST FORCING AT 00Z THROUGH
ABOUT 06Z AS FORCING ALOFT PASSES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
SATURATION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD 100 POPS FOR MOST AREAS. ALONG
WITH TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW FORCING ENDING QUICKLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE THE GFS AND NAM DEPICT THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT EXITING
QUICKLY. SOME TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF LOWER LEVEL CLOUD LINGERING
THROUGH THE DAY WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT INDIANA AND PUSH TOWARD NORTHEAST
OHIO...KEEPING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. GIVEN THE LOSS OF FORCING...HEAVIER RAINS
SHOULD END ON SUNDAY RATHER QUICKLY...BUT GIVEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS...A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND POPS AT OR BELOW
MAVMOS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST WHERE FORCING IS LOST THE
SOONEST. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND AT OR BELOW MAVMOS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUD AND COOL NORTH WINDS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTS DRY...NW FLOW
IN PLACE ALOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BE PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW OF DRY
CONTINENTAL FLOW TO INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN
IN PLACE ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE...GOOD
SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD AS
DRY FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW...A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS AND METMOS SHOULD WORK NICELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO AGREEING
ON A WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH AND GETTING CUT OFF OVER
THE GULF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT MOISTURE/UPPER FORCING FROM THIS UPPER
LOW COULD SWING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE TO HELP THE FORCING OVERCOME THE
INHIBITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 300600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

LEFTOVER CONVECTIION PRIOR TO START OF TAF FORECAST HAS FINALLY
DISSIPATED AFTER INTERACTION WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND REMAINING
AVAILABLE ENERGY.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION PRETTY CERTAIN OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
LATER TODAY AS SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CAP MAY START
TO SEE DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS 301600Z. HOWEVER NO CLEAR CUT TRIGGER
OR FOCUS AT THIS TIME TO PIN DOWN LOCATION AND TIMING. AS A
RESULT...WILL JUST GO WITH A CB SIGNIFICANT CLOUD IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINALS BY MID DAY WITH BASES AROUND 030. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY
CONVECTION AS TERRE HAUTE EXPERIENCED EARLIER FRIDAY EVENING.

MODELS STILL VARY ON TRACK OF SURFACE LOW WHICH DETERMINES HOW WINDS
WILL SHIFT SATURDAY EVENING. IF LOW TRACKS NORTH OF TERMINLAS
SOUTHWEST WINDS SWITCH TO NORTHWEST AND NORTH. IF LOW TRACKS SOUTH
OF TERMINALS...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND TO BACK TO SOUTHEAST BEFORE
SWINGING TO NORTH WITH LOWS PASSAGE.

STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER EXPECTED FROM 310000Z THROUGH
0900Z-1200Z IN WRAP-AROUND PORTION OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH. CLOUD DECKS WILL DROP TO IFR DURING MODERATE RAIN AS COLDER
AIR DRIVES IN ON NORTH WIND SOMETIME AFTER 310300Z.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FOR KIND. CUMULUS HAVE DISSIPATED. SMALL
CHANCE KHUF SHOWERS MAY PROGRESS INTO AREA IN SEVERAL HOURS SO
WILL MONITOR.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 300617
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
217 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE EAST. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF
DRY WEATHER...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SET TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES...ACROSS ILLINOIS TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINED IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. DEW POINTS WERE
HOLDING IN THE MOIST MIDDLE 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORT WAVE ACROSS MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS PUSHING NORTHEAST. RADAR
SHOWS SOME SCT CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI...ALBEIT IT
WAS ONLY GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND STORMS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHTS SHOW DEEP SATURATION ARRIVING BY LATE AFTERNOON. GFS
AND NAM SHOW STRONG FORCING ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT
AFTER 18Z...TIMING WELL WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING AROUND 100 J/KG OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER 1.75 INCHES. LOWER LEVEL Q VECTORS SHOW BEST
CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA...MAINLY LATE IN
THE DAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN ALL OF THE AVAILABLE
FORCING AND MOISTURE...WILL TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS IN MOST
CASES. AS THE BEST FORCING FAILS TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON...WILL TRY AND RAMP UP POPS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH
THE MOST DRY HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND TOWARD
PERSISTENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
HOLD OFF THE LONGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

WET WEATHER LOOKS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA
OVERNIGHT. GFS AND NAM ALSO SUGGEST THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF RAIN BEING
FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. STILL ALL
AREA SHOULD GET SOME PRECIP THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES.
VERY GOOD LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES. TIME HEIGHTS ALSO SHOW BEST FORCING AT 00Z THROUGH
ABOUT 06Z AS FORCING ALOFT PASSES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
SATURATION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD 100 POPS FOR MOST AREAS. ALONG
WITH TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW FORCING ENDING QUICKLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE THE GFS AND NAM DEPICT THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT EXITING
QUICKLY. SOME TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF LOWER LEVEL CLOUD LINGERING
THROUGH THE DAY WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT INDIANA AND PUSH TOWARD NORTHEAST
OHIO...KEEPING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. GIVEN THE LOSS OF FORCING...HEAVIER RAINS
SHOULD END ON SUNDAY RATHER QUICKLY...BUT GIVEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS...A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND POPS AT OR BELOW
MAVMOS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST WHERE FORCING IS LOST THE
SOONEST. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND AT OR BELOW MAVMOS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUD AND COOL NORTH WINDS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTS DRY...NW FLOW
IN PLACE ALOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BE PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW OF DRY
CONTINENTAL FLOW TO INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN
IN PLACE ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE...GOOD
SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD AS
DRY FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW...A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS AND METMOS SHOULD WORK NICELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO AGREEING
ON A WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH AND GETTING CUT OFF OVER
THE GULF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT MOISTURE/UPPER FORCING FROM THIS UPPER
LOW COULD SWING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE TO HELP THE FORCING OVERCOME THE
INHIBITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 300600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

LEFTOVER CONVECTIION PRIOR TO START OF TAF FORECAST HAS FINALLY
DISSIPATED AFTER INTERACTION WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND REMAINING
AVAILABLE ENERGY.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION PRETTY CERTAIN OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
LATER TODAY AS SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CAP MAY START
TO SEE DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS 301600Z. HOWEVER NO CLEAR CUT TRIGGER
OR FOCUS AT THIS TIME TO PIN DOWN LOCATION AND TIMING. AS A
RESULT...WILL JUST GO WITH A CB SIGNIFICANT CLOUD IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINALS BY MID DAY WITH BASES AROUND 030. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY
CONVECTION AS TERRE HAUTE EXPERIENCED EARLIER FRIDAY EVENING.

MODELS STILL VARY ON TRACK OF SURFACE LOW WHICH DETERMINES HOW WINDS
WILL SHIFT SATURDAY EVENING. IF LOW TRACKS NORTH OF TERMINLAS
SOUTHWEST WINDS SWITCH TO NORTHWEST AND NORTH. IF LOW TRACKS SOUTH
OF TERMINALS...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND TO BACK TO SOUTHEAST BEFORE
SWINGING TO NORTH WITH LOWS PASSAGE.

STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER EXPECTED FROM 310000Z THROUGH
0900Z-1200Z IN WRAP-AROUND PORTION OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH. CLOUD DECKS WILL DROP TO IFR DURING MODERATE RAIN AS COLDER
AIR DRIVES IN ON NORTH WIND SOMETIME AFTER 310300Z.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FOR KIND. CUMULUS HAVE DISSIPATED. SMALL
CHANCE KHUF SHOWERS MAY PROGRESS INTO AREA IN SEVERAL HOURS SO
WILL MONITOR.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 300435
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1233 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 60S ON SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY SOUTH OVER KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES MAY
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1016 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO THE WABASH VALLEY THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE OVER ARKANSAS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WAS QUIET WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS WERE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 70S AS OF 02Z.

THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS TO BACK OFF ON
PRECIP CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
A FEW STORMS CURRENTLY NEAR KHUF BACK INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS AND
OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY. THESE WERE GENERALLY MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST...AND EXPECT BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE IMPACTS
THROUGH 06Z WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HI-RES GUIDANCE DRIFTS THIS ACTIVITY INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
WEAKENS IT OVERNIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE OTHER PRECIP DEVELOPING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CONSIDERING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH MINIMAL
FORCING ALOFT UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE ARRIVES ON
SATURDAY...THINK IT WILL BE HARD TO GENERATE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HELD ONTO 30 POPS OVER THE
WABASH VALLEY...BUT LOWERED TO 20 AT BEST ELSEWHERE CONSIDERING
ABOVE THOUGHTS.

WARM HUMID NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER
60S BY DAYBREAK. VERY POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS REGISTER
THEIR FIRST 70 DEGREE NIGHT OF THE YEAR AS WELL.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT
TERM WITH TEMPERATURES JUST OFF TO THE CENTER OF STAGE.

12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR
FORT WAYNE TO TERRE HAUTE LINE BY 18Z SATURDAY AND TO ABOUT A
GREENSBURG TO BEDFORD LINE BY 00Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS
THE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MCV OVER EASTERN TEXAS WILL
SPIN UP A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND INTERACT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO NEAR 2 INCHES. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT
QPF...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A NEW CASTLE TO BEDFORD LINE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
PROBABILITY GRAPHIC. ALSO...WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE MOST INSTABILITY DRIVEN (MIXED LAYER CAPES
TO 1000 J/KG OR SO) WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AVAILABLE.

AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LEFT SMALL
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHWEST COUNTIES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER BY MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY.

GENERALLY WENT COOLER THAN THE 12Z MOS ON SATURDAY BASED ON
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
NAM LOOKED TOO COOL FOR SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE WARMER GFS ONLY HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S. FINALLY...MONDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
WARM BACK TO 70 DEGREES OR MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO AGREEING
ON A WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH AND GETTING CUT OFF OVER
THE GULF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT MOISTURE/UPPER FORCING FROM THIS UPPER
LOW COULD SWING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE TO HELP THE FORCING OVERCOME THE
INHIBITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 300600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

LEFTOVER CONVECTIION PRIOR TO START OF TAF FORECAST HAS FINALLY
DISSIPATED AFTER INTERACTION WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND REMAINING
AVAILABLE ENERGY.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION PRETTY CERTAIN OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
LATER TODAY AS SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CAP MAY START
TO SEE DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS 301600Z. HOWEVER NO CLEAR CUT TRIGGER
OR FOCUS AT THIS TIME TO PIN DOWN LOCATION AND TIMING. AS A
RESULT...WILL JUST GO WITH A CB SIGNIFICANT CLOUD IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINALS BY MID DAY WITH BASES AROUND 030. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY
CONVECTION AS TERRE HAUTE EXPERIENCED EARLIER FRIDAY EVENING.

MODELS STILL VARY ON TRACK OF SURFACE LOW WHICH DETERMINES HOW WINDS
WILL SHIFT SATURDAY EVENING. IF LOW TRACKS NORTH OF TERMINLAS
SOUTHWEST WINDS SWITCH TO NORTHWEST AND NORTH. IF LOW TRACKS SOUTH
OF TERMINALS...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND TO BACK TO SOUTHEAST BEFORE
SWINGING TO NORTH WITH LOWS PASSAGE.

STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER EXPECTED FROM 310000Z THROUGH
0900Z-1200Z IN WRAP-AROUND PORTION OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH. CLOUD DECKS WILL DROP TO IFR DURING MODERATE RAIN AS COLDER
AIR DRIVES IN ON NORTH WIND SOMETIME AFTER 310300Z.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FOR KIND. CUMULUS HAVE DISSIPATED. SMALL
CHANCE KHUF SHOWERS MAY PROGRESS INTO AREA IN SEVERAL HOURS SO
WILL MONITOR.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 300435
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1233 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 60S ON SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY SOUTH OVER KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES MAY
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1016 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO THE WABASH VALLEY THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE OVER ARKANSAS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WAS QUIET WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS WERE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 70S AS OF 02Z.

THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS TO BACK OFF ON
PRECIP CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
A FEW STORMS CURRENTLY NEAR KHUF BACK INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS AND
OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY. THESE WERE GENERALLY MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST...AND EXPECT BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE IMPACTS
THROUGH 06Z WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HI-RES GUIDANCE DRIFTS THIS ACTIVITY INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
WEAKENS IT OVERNIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE OTHER PRECIP DEVELOPING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CONSIDERING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH MINIMAL
FORCING ALOFT UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE ARRIVES ON
SATURDAY...THINK IT WILL BE HARD TO GENERATE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HELD ONTO 30 POPS OVER THE
WABASH VALLEY...BUT LOWERED TO 20 AT BEST ELSEWHERE CONSIDERING
ABOVE THOUGHTS.

WARM HUMID NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER
60S BY DAYBREAK. VERY POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS REGISTER
THEIR FIRST 70 DEGREE NIGHT OF THE YEAR AS WELL.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT
TERM WITH TEMPERATURES JUST OFF TO THE CENTER OF STAGE.

12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR
FORT WAYNE TO TERRE HAUTE LINE BY 18Z SATURDAY AND TO ABOUT A
GREENSBURG TO BEDFORD LINE BY 00Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS
THE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MCV OVER EASTERN TEXAS WILL
SPIN UP A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND INTERACT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO NEAR 2 INCHES. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT
QPF...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A NEW CASTLE TO BEDFORD LINE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
PROBABILITY GRAPHIC. ALSO...WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE MOST INSTABILITY DRIVEN (MIXED LAYER CAPES
TO 1000 J/KG OR SO) WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AVAILABLE.

AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LEFT SMALL
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHWEST COUNTIES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER BY MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY.

GENERALLY WENT COOLER THAN THE 12Z MOS ON SATURDAY BASED ON
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
NAM LOOKED TOO COOL FOR SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE WARMER GFS ONLY HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S. FINALLY...MONDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
WARM BACK TO 70 DEGREES OR MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO AGREEING
ON A WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH AND GETTING CUT OFF OVER
THE GULF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT MOISTURE/UPPER FORCING FROM THIS UPPER
LOW COULD SWING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE TO HELP THE FORCING OVERCOME THE
INHIBITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 300600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

LEFTOVER CONVECTIION PRIOR TO START OF TAF FORECAST HAS FINALLY
DISSIPATED AFTER INTERACTION WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND REMAINING
AVAILABLE ENERGY.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION PRETTY CERTAIN OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
LATER TODAY AS SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CAP MAY START
TO SEE DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS 301600Z. HOWEVER NO CLEAR CUT TRIGGER
OR FOCUS AT THIS TIME TO PIN DOWN LOCATION AND TIMING. AS A
RESULT...WILL JUST GO WITH A CB SIGNIFICANT CLOUD IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINALS BY MID DAY WITH BASES AROUND 030. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY
CONVECTION AS TERRE HAUTE EXPERIENCED EARLIER FRIDAY EVENING.

MODELS STILL VARY ON TRACK OF SURFACE LOW WHICH DETERMINES HOW WINDS
WILL SHIFT SATURDAY EVENING. IF LOW TRACKS NORTH OF TERMINLAS
SOUTHWEST WINDS SWITCH TO NORTHWEST AND NORTH. IF LOW TRACKS SOUTH
OF TERMINALS...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND TO BACK TO SOUTHEAST BEFORE
SWINGING TO NORTH WITH LOWS PASSAGE.

STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER EXPECTED FROM 310000Z THROUGH
0900Z-1200Z IN WRAP-AROUND PORTION OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH. CLOUD DECKS WILL DROP TO IFR DURING MODERATE RAIN AS COLDER
AIR DRIVES IN ON NORTH WIND SOMETIME AFTER 310300Z.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FOR KIND. CUMULUS HAVE DISSIPATED. SMALL
CHANCE KHUF SHOWERS MAY PROGRESS INTO AREA IN SEVERAL HOURS SO
WILL MONITOR.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 300223
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1023 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 60S ON SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY SOUTH OVER KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES MAY
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1016 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO THE WABASH VALLEY THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE OVER ARKANSAS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WAS QUIET WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS WERE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 70S AS OF 02Z.

THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS TO BACK OFF ON
PRECIP CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
A FEW STORMS CURRENTLY NEAR KHUF BACK INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS AND
OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY. THESE WERE GENERALLY MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST...AND EXPECT BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE IMPACTS
THROUGH 06Z WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HI-RES GUIDANCE DRIFTS THIS ACTIVITY INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
WEAKENS IT OVERNIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE OTHER PRECIP DEVELOPING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CONSIDERING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH MINIMAL
FORCING ALOFT UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE ARRIVES ON
SATURDAY...THINK IT WILL BE HARD TO GENERATE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HELD ONTO 30 POPS OVER THE
WABASH VALLEY...BUT LOWERED TO 20 AT BEST ELSEWHERE CONSIDERING
ABOVE THOUGHTS.

WARM HUMID NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER
60S BY DAYBREAK. VERY POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS REGISTER
THEIR FIRST 70 DEGREE NIGHT OF THE YEAR AS WELL.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT
TERM WITH TEMPERATURES JUST OFF TO THE CENTER OF STAGE.

12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR
FORT WAYNE TO TERRE HAUTE LINE BY 18Z SATURDAY AND TO ABOUT A
GREENSBURG TO BEDFORD LINE BY 00Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS
THE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MCV OVER EASTERN TEXAS WILL
SPIN UP A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND INTERACT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO NEAR 2 INCHES. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT
QPF...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A NEW CASTLE TO BEDFORD LINE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
PROBABILITY GRAPHIC. ALSO...WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE MOST INSTABILITY DRIVEN (MIXED LAYER CAPES
TO 1000 J/KG OR SO) WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AVAILABLE.

AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LEFT SMALL
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHWEST COUNTIES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER BY MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY.

GENERALLY WENT COOLER THAN THE 12Z MOS ON SATURDAY BASED ON
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
NAM LOOKED TOO COOL FOR SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE WARMER GFS ONLY HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S. FINALLY...MONDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
WARM BACK TO 70 DEGREES OR MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO AGREEING
ON A WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH AND GETTING CUT OFF OVER
THE GULF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT MOISTURE/UPPER FORCING FROM THIS UPPER
LOW COULD SWING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE TO HELP THE FORCING OVERCOME THE
INHIBITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE TO 30000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1016 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FOR KIND. CUMULUS HAVE DISSIPATED. SMALL
CHANCE KHUF SHOWERS MAY PROGRESS INTO AREA IN SEVERAL HOURS SO
WILL MONITOR.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ILLINOIS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SOME
SHOWERS NEAR KHUF AND KLAF BEYOND THE EXPECTED ENDING TIME.
HAVE CONTINUED VCTS AT KHUF COUPLE MORE HOURS AND ADDED AT KLAF TO
ACCOUNT FOR REMAINING INSTABILTY AND THUNDER THREAT. SLOW MOVING
NATURE MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL TIME EXTENSION BEYOND 300400Z.


THE NEXT RAIN THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 300900Z
STARTING AT KLAF...AND ARRIVING AT THE REMAINING SITES WITHIN A FEW
HOURS FOLLOWING THAT.

WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT...ALONG
WITH SOME SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION...EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY OR AFTER 301600Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 300223
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1023 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 60S ON SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY SOUTH OVER KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES MAY
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1016 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO THE WABASH VALLEY THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE OVER ARKANSAS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WAS QUIET WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS WERE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 70S AS OF 02Z.

THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS TO BACK OFF ON
PRECIP CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
A FEW STORMS CURRENTLY NEAR KHUF BACK INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS AND
OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY. THESE WERE GENERALLY MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST...AND EXPECT BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE IMPACTS
THROUGH 06Z WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HI-RES GUIDANCE DRIFTS THIS ACTIVITY INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
WEAKENS IT OVERNIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE OTHER PRECIP DEVELOPING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CONSIDERING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH MINIMAL
FORCING ALOFT UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE ARRIVES ON
SATURDAY...THINK IT WILL BE HARD TO GENERATE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HELD ONTO 30 POPS OVER THE
WABASH VALLEY...BUT LOWERED TO 20 AT BEST ELSEWHERE CONSIDERING
ABOVE THOUGHTS.

WARM HUMID NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER
60S BY DAYBREAK. VERY POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS REGISTER
THEIR FIRST 70 DEGREE NIGHT OF THE YEAR AS WELL.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT
TERM WITH TEMPERATURES JUST OFF TO THE CENTER OF STAGE.

12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR
FORT WAYNE TO TERRE HAUTE LINE BY 18Z SATURDAY AND TO ABOUT A
GREENSBURG TO BEDFORD LINE BY 00Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS
THE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MCV OVER EASTERN TEXAS WILL
SPIN UP A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND INTERACT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO NEAR 2 INCHES. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT
QPF...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A NEW CASTLE TO BEDFORD LINE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
PROBABILITY GRAPHIC. ALSO...WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE MOST INSTABILITY DRIVEN (MIXED LAYER CAPES
TO 1000 J/KG OR SO) WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AVAILABLE.

AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LEFT SMALL
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHWEST COUNTIES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER BY MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY.

GENERALLY WENT COOLER THAN THE 12Z MOS ON SATURDAY BASED ON
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
NAM LOOKED TOO COOL FOR SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE WARMER GFS ONLY HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S. FINALLY...MONDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
WARM BACK TO 70 DEGREES OR MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO AGREEING
ON A WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH AND GETTING CUT OFF OVER
THE GULF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT MOISTURE/UPPER FORCING FROM THIS UPPER
LOW COULD SWING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE TO HELP THE FORCING OVERCOME THE
INHIBITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE TO 30000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1016 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FOR KIND. CUMULUS HAVE DISSIPATED. SMALL
CHANCE KHUF SHOWERS MAY PROGRESS INTO AREA IN SEVERAL HOURS SO
WILL MONITOR.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ILLINOIS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SOME
SHOWERS NEAR KHUF AND KLAF BEYOND THE EXPECTED ENDING TIME.
HAVE CONTINUED VCTS AT KHUF COUPLE MORE HOURS AND ADDED AT KLAF TO
ACCOUNT FOR REMAINING INSTABILTY AND THUNDER THREAT. SLOW MOVING
NATURE MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL TIME EXTENSION BEYOND 300400Z.


THE NEXT RAIN THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 300900Z
STARTING AT KLAF...AND ARRIVING AT THE REMAINING SITES WITHIN A FEW
HOURS FOLLOWING THAT.

WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT...ALONG
WITH SOME SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION...EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY OR AFTER 301600Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 300223
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1023 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 60S ON SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY SOUTH OVER KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES MAY
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1016 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO THE WABASH VALLEY THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE OVER ARKANSAS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WAS QUIET WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS WERE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 70S AS OF 02Z.

THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS TO BACK OFF ON
PRECIP CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
A FEW STORMS CURRENTLY NEAR KHUF BACK INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS AND
OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY. THESE WERE GENERALLY MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST...AND EXPECT BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE IMPACTS
THROUGH 06Z WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HI-RES GUIDANCE DRIFTS THIS ACTIVITY INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
WEAKENS IT OVERNIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE OTHER PRECIP DEVELOPING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CONSIDERING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH MINIMAL
FORCING ALOFT UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE ARRIVES ON
SATURDAY...THINK IT WILL BE HARD TO GENERATE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HELD ONTO 30 POPS OVER THE
WABASH VALLEY...BUT LOWERED TO 20 AT BEST ELSEWHERE CONSIDERING
ABOVE THOUGHTS.

WARM HUMID NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER
60S BY DAYBREAK. VERY POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS REGISTER
THEIR FIRST 70 DEGREE NIGHT OF THE YEAR AS WELL.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT
TERM WITH TEMPERATURES JUST OFF TO THE CENTER OF STAGE.

12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR
FORT WAYNE TO TERRE HAUTE LINE BY 18Z SATURDAY AND TO ABOUT A
GREENSBURG TO BEDFORD LINE BY 00Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS
THE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MCV OVER EASTERN TEXAS WILL
SPIN UP A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND INTERACT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO NEAR 2 INCHES. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT
QPF...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A NEW CASTLE TO BEDFORD LINE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
PROBABILITY GRAPHIC. ALSO...WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE MOST INSTABILITY DRIVEN (MIXED LAYER CAPES
TO 1000 J/KG OR SO) WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AVAILABLE.

AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LEFT SMALL
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHWEST COUNTIES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER BY MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY.

GENERALLY WENT COOLER THAN THE 12Z MOS ON SATURDAY BASED ON
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
NAM LOOKED TOO COOL FOR SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE WARMER GFS ONLY HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S. FINALLY...MONDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
WARM BACK TO 70 DEGREES OR MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO AGREEING
ON A WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH AND GETTING CUT OFF OVER
THE GULF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT MOISTURE/UPPER FORCING FROM THIS UPPER
LOW COULD SWING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE TO HELP THE FORCING OVERCOME THE
INHIBITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE TO 30000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1016 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FOR KIND. CUMULUS HAVE DISSIPATED. SMALL
CHANCE KHUF SHOWERS MAY PROGRESS INTO AREA IN SEVERAL HOURS SO
WILL MONITOR.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ILLINOIS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SOME
SHOWERS NEAR KHUF AND KLAF BEYOND THE EXPECTED ENDING TIME.
HAVE CONTINUED VCTS AT KHUF COUPLE MORE HOURS AND ADDED AT KLAF TO
ACCOUNT FOR REMAINING INSTABILTY AND THUNDER THREAT. SLOW MOVING
NATURE MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL TIME EXTENSION BEYOND 300400Z.


THE NEXT RAIN THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 300900Z
STARTING AT KLAF...AND ARRIVING AT THE REMAINING SITES WITHIN A FEW
HOURS FOLLOWING THAT.

WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT...ALONG
WITH SOME SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION...EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY OR AFTER 301600Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 300223
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1023 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 60S ON SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY SOUTH OVER KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES MAY
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1016 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO THE WABASH VALLEY THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE OVER ARKANSAS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WAS QUIET WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS WERE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 70S AS OF 02Z.

THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS TO BACK OFF ON
PRECIP CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
A FEW STORMS CURRENTLY NEAR KHUF BACK INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS AND
OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY. THESE WERE GENERALLY MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST...AND EXPECT BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE IMPACTS
THROUGH 06Z WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HI-RES GUIDANCE DRIFTS THIS ACTIVITY INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
WEAKENS IT OVERNIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE OTHER PRECIP DEVELOPING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CONSIDERING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH MINIMAL
FORCING ALOFT UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE ARRIVES ON
SATURDAY...THINK IT WILL BE HARD TO GENERATE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HELD ONTO 30 POPS OVER THE
WABASH VALLEY...BUT LOWERED TO 20 AT BEST ELSEWHERE CONSIDERING
ABOVE THOUGHTS.

WARM HUMID NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER
60S BY DAYBREAK. VERY POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS REGISTER
THEIR FIRST 70 DEGREE NIGHT OF THE YEAR AS WELL.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT
TERM WITH TEMPERATURES JUST OFF TO THE CENTER OF STAGE.

12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR
FORT WAYNE TO TERRE HAUTE LINE BY 18Z SATURDAY AND TO ABOUT A
GREENSBURG TO BEDFORD LINE BY 00Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS
THE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MCV OVER EASTERN TEXAS WILL
SPIN UP A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND INTERACT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO NEAR 2 INCHES. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT
QPF...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A NEW CASTLE TO BEDFORD LINE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
PROBABILITY GRAPHIC. ALSO...WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE MOST INSTABILITY DRIVEN (MIXED LAYER CAPES
TO 1000 J/KG OR SO) WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AVAILABLE.

AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LEFT SMALL
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHWEST COUNTIES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER BY MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY.

GENERALLY WENT COOLER THAN THE 12Z MOS ON SATURDAY BASED ON
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
NAM LOOKED TOO COOL FOR SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE WARMER GFS ONLY HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S. FINALLY...MONDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
WARM BACK TO 70 DEGREES OR MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO AGREEING
ON A WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH AND GETTING CUT OFF OVER
THE GULF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT MOISTURE/UPPER FORCING FROM THIS UPPER
LOW COULD SWING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE TO HELP THE FORCING OVERCOME THE
INHIBITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE TO 30000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1016 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FOR KIND. CUMULUS HAVE DISSIPATED. SMALL
CHANCE KHUF SHOWERS MAY PROGRESS INTO AREA IN SEVERAL HOURS SO
WILL MONITOR.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ILLINOIS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SOME
SHOWERS NEAR KHUF AND KLAF BEYOND THE EXPECTED ENDING TIME.
HAVE CONTINUED VCTS AT KHUF COUPLE MORE HOURS AND ADDED AT KLAF TO
ACCOUNT FOR REMAINING INSTABILTY AND THUNDER THREAT. SLOW MOVING
NATURE MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL TIME EXTENSION BEYOND 300400Z.


THE NEXT RAIN THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 300900Z
STARTING AT KLAF...AND ARRIVING AT THE REMAINING SITES WITHIN A FEW
HOURS FOLLOWING THAT.

WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT...ALONG
WITH SOME SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION...EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY OR AFTER 301600Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 300216
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1016 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 60S ON SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY SOUTH OVER KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES MAY
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1016 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO THE WABASH VALLEY THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE OVER ARKANSAS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WAS QUIET WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS WERE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 70S AS OF 02Z.

THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS TO BACK OFF ON
PRECIP CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
A FEW STORMS CURRENTLY NEAR KHUF BACK INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS AND
OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY. THESE WERE GENERALLY MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST...AND EXPECT BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE IMPACTS
THROUGH 06Z WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HI-RES GUIDANCE DRIFTS THIS ACTIVITY INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
WEAKENS IT OVERNIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE OTHER PRECIP DEVELOPING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CONSIDERING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH MINIMAL
FORCING ALOFT UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE ARRIVES ON
SATURDAY...THINK IT WILL BE HARD TO GENERATE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HELD ONTO 30 POPS OVER THE
WABASH VALLEY...BUT LOWERED TO 20 AT BEST ELSEWHERE CONSIDERING
ABOVE THOUGHTS.

WARM HUMID NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER
60S BY DAYBREAK. VERY POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS REGISTER
THEIR FIRST 70 DEGREE NIGHT OF THE YEAR AS WELL.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT
TERM WITH TEMPERATURES JUST OFF TO THE CENTER OF STAGE.

12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR
FORT WAYNE TO TERRE HAUTE LINE BY 18Z SATURDAY AND TO ABOUT A
GREENSBURG TO BEDFORD LINE BY 00Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS
THE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MCV OVER EASTERN TEXAS WILL
SPIN UP A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND INTERACT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO NEAR 2 INCHES. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT
QPF...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A NEW CASTLE TO BEDFORD LINE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
PROBABILITY GRAPHIC. ALSO...WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE MOST INSTABILITY DRIVEN (MIXED LAYER CAPES
TO 1000 J/KG OR SO) WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AVAILABLE.

AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LEFT SMALL
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHWEST COUNTIES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER BY MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY.

GENERALLY WENT COOLER THAN THE 12Z MOS ON SATURDAY BASED ON
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
NAM LOOKED TOO COOL FOR SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE WARMER GFS ONLY HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S. FINALLY...MONDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
WARM BACK TO 70 DEGREES OR MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO AGREEING
ON A WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH AND GETTING CUT OFF OVER
THE GULF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT MOISTURE/UPPER FORCING FROM THIS UPPER
LOW COULD SWING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE TO HELP THE FORCING OVERCOME THE
INHIBITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 300000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECTING DECKS TO LOWER TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...LIKELY AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SATELLITES INDICATED DIURNAL CUMULUS ARE DIMINISHING. RADAR STILL
SHOWS SHOWERS HEADING TOWARDS KHUF AND WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY
SITE AFFECTED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOLLOWING THIS...THE NEXT
THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 300900Z STARTING AT
KLAF...AND ARRIVING AT THE REMAINING SITE WITHIN A FEW HOURS
FOLLOWING THAT.

WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT...ALONG
WITH SOME SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION...EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY OR AFTER 301600Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MMB/TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 300216
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1016 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 60S ON SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY SOUTH OVER KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES MAY
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1016 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO THE WABASH VALLEY THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE OVER ARKANSAS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WAS QUIET WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS WERE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 70S AS OF 02Z.

THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS TO BACK OFF ON
PRECIP CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
A FEW STORMS CURRENTLY NEAR KHUF BACK INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS AND
OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY. THESE WERE GENERALLY MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST...AND EXPECT BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE IMPACTS
THROUGH 06Z WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HI-RES GUIDANCE DRIFTS THIS ACTIVITY INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
WEAKENS IT OVERNIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE OTHER PRECIP DEVELOPING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CONSIDERING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH MINIMAL
FORCING ALOFT UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE ARRIVES ON
SATURDAY...THINK IT WILL BE HARD TO GENERATE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HELD ONTO 30 POPS OVER THE
WABASH VALLEY...BUT LOWERED TO 20 AT BEST ELSEWHERE CONSIDERING
ABOVE THOUGHTS.

WARM HUMID NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER
60S BY DAYBREAK. VERY POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS REGISTER
THEIR FIRST 70 DEGREE NIGHT OF THE YEAR AS WELL.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT
TERM WITH TEMPERATURES JUST OFF TO THE CENTER OF STAGE.

12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR
FORT WAYNE TO TERRE HAUTE LINE BY 18Z SATURDAY AND TO ABOUT A
GREENSBURG TO BEDFORD LINE BY 00Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS
THE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MCV OVER EASTERN TEXAS WILL
SPIN UP A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND INTERACT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO NEAR 2 INCHES. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT
QPF...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A NEW CASTLE TO BEDFORD LINE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
PROBABILITY GRAPHIC. ALSO...WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE MOST INSTABILITY DRIVEN (MIXED LAYER CAPES
TO 1000 J/KG OR SO) WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AVAILABLE.

AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LEFT SMALL
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHWEST COUNTIES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER BY MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY.

GENERALLY WENT COOLER THAN THE 12Z MOS ON SATURDAY BASED ON
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
NAM LOOKED TOO COOL FOR SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE WARMER GFS ONLY HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S. FINALLY...MONDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
WARM BACK TO 70 DEGREES OR MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO AGREEING
ON A WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH AND GETTING CUT OFF OVER
THE GULF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT MOISTURE/UPPER FORCING FROM THIS UPPER
LOW COULD SWING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE TO HELP THE FORCING OVERCOME THE
INHIBITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 300000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECTING DECKS TO LOWER TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...LIKELY AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SATELLITES INDICATED DIURNAL CUMULUS ARE DIMINISHING. RADAR STILL
SHOWS SHOWERS HEADING TOWARDS KHUF AND WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY
SITE AFFECTED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOLLOWING THIS...THE NEXT
THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 300900Z STARTING AT
KLAF...AND ARRIVING AT THE REMAINING SITE WITHIN A FEW HOURS
FOLLOWING THAT.

WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT...ALONG
WITH SOME SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION...EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY OR AFTER 301600Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MMB/TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 292328
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
728 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 60S ON SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY SOUTH OVER KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES MAY
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MCV OVER EASTERN
TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE OZARKS BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL KEEP IT
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WITH ONLY WEAK
SHEAR...COULD SEE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THEN...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MODELS AGREE THE FRONT WILL BE
JUST WEST OF A CHICAGO TO ST. LOUIS LINE AT 12Z.

SO...WILL GO WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
SOUTHEAST.

12Z MOS TEMPERATURE VERY CLOSE AND LOOK GOOD WITH CURRENT DEW
POINTS...CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW LEVEL FLOW AND CLOUD COVER
CONSIDERATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT
TERM WITH TEMPERATURES JUST OFF TO THE CENTER OF STAGE.

12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR
FORT WAYNE TO TERRE HAUTE LINE BY 18Z SATURDAY AND TO ABOUT A
GREENSBURG TO BEDFORD LINE BY 00Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS
THE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MCV OVER EASTERN TEXAS WILL
SPIN UP A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND INTERACT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO NEAR 2 INCHES. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT
QPF...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A NEW CASTLE TO BEDFORD LINE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
PROBABILITY GRAPHIC. ALSO...WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE MOST INSTABILITY DRIVEN (MIXED LAYER CAPES
TO 1000 J/KG OR SO) WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AVAILABLE.

AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LEFT SMALL
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHWEST COUNTIES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER BY MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY.

GENERALLY WENT COOLER THAN THE 12Z MOS ON SATURDAY BASED ON
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
NAM LOOKED TOO COOL FOR SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE WARMER GFS ONLY HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S. FINALLY...MONDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
WARM BACK TO 70 DEGREES OR MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO AGREEING
ON A WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH AND GETTING CUT OFF OVER
THE GULF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT MOISTURE/UPPER FORCING FROM THIS UPPER
LOW COULD SWING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE TO HELP THE FORCING OVERCOME THE
INHIBITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 300000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECTING DECKS TO LOWER TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...LIKELY AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SATELLITES INDICATED DIURNAL CUMULUS ARE DIMINISHING. RADAR STILL
SHOWS SHOWERS HEADING TOWARDS KHUF AND WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY
SITE AFFECTED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOLLOWING THIS...THE NEXT
THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 300900Z STARTING AT
KLAF...AND ARRIVING AT THE REMAINING SITE WITHIN A FEW HOURS
FOLLOWING THAT.

WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT...ALONG
WITH SOME SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION...EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY OR AFTER 301600Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MMB/TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 292328
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
728 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 60S ON SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY SOUTH OVER KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES MAY
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MCV OVER EASTERN
TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE OZARKS BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL KEEP IT
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WITH ONLY WEAK
SHEAR...COULD SEE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THEN...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MODELS AGREE THE FRONT WILL BE
JUST WEST OF A CHICAGO TO ST. LOUIS LINE AT 12Z.

SO...WILL GO WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
SOUTHEAST.

12Z MOS TEMPERATURE VERY CLOSE AND LOOK GOOD WITH CURRENT DEW
POINTS...CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW LEVEL FLOW AND CLOUD COVER
CONSIDERATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT
TERM WITH TEMPERATURES JUST OFF TO THE CENTER OF STAGE.

12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR
FORT WAYNE TO TERRE HAUTE LINE BY 18Z SATURDAY AND TO ABOUT A
GREENSBURG TO BEDFORD LINE BY 00Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS
THE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MCV OVER EASTERN TEXAS WILL
SPIN UP A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND INTERACT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO NEAR 2 INCHES. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT
QPF...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A NEW CASTLE TO BEDFORD LINE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
PROBABILITY GRAPHIC. ALSO...WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE MOST INSTABILITY DRIVEN (MIXED LAYER CAPES
TO 1000 J/KG OR SO) WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AVAILABLE.

AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LEFT SMALL
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHWEST COUNTIES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER BY MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY.

GENERALLY WENT COOLER THAN THE 12Z MOS ON SATURDAY BASED ON
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
NAM LOOKED TOO COOL FOR SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE WARMER GFS ONLY HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S. FINALLY...MONDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
WARM BACK TO 70 DEGREES OR MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO AGREEING
ON A WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH AND GETTING CUT OFF OVER
THE GULF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT MOISTURE/UPPER FORCING FROM THIS UPPER
LOW COULD SWING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE TO HELP THE FORCING OVERCOME THE
INHIBITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 300000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECTING DECKS TO LOWER TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...LIKELY AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SATELLITES INDICATED DIURNAL CUMULUS ARE DIMINISHING. RADAR STILL
SHOWS SHOWERS HEADING TOWARDS KHUF AND WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY
SITE AFFECTED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOLLOWING THIS...THE NEXT
THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 300900Z STARTING AT
KLAF...AND ARRIVING AT THE REMAINING SITE WITHIN A FEW HOURS
FOLLOWING THAT.

WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT...ALONG
WITH SOME SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION...EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY OR AFTER 301600Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MMB/TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 292032
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
432 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 60S ON SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY SOUTH OVER KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES MAY
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MCV OVER EASTERN
TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE OZARKS BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL KEEP IT
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WITH ONLY WEAK
SHEAR...COULD SEE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THEN...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MODELS AGREE THE FRONT WILL BE
JUST WEST OF A CHICAGO TO ST. LOUIS LINE AT 12Z.

SO...WILL GO WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
SOUTHEAST.

12Z MOS TEMPERATURE VERY CLOSE AND LOOK GOOD WITH CURRENT DEW
POINTS...CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW LEVEL FLOW AND CLOUD COVER
CONSIDERATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT
TERM WITH TEMPERATURES JUST OFF TO THE CENTER OF STAGE.

12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR
FORT WAYNE TO TERRE HAUTE LINE BY 18Z SATURDAY AND TO ABOUT A
GREENSBURG TO BEDFORD LINE BY 00Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS
THE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MCV OVER EASTERN TEXAS WILL
SPIN UP A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND INTERACT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO NEAR 2 INCHES. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT
QPF...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A NEW CASTLE TO BEDFORD LINE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
PROBABILITY GRAPHIC. ALSO...WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE MOST INSTABILITY DRIVEN (MIXED LAYER CAPES
TO 1000 J/KG OR SO) WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AVAILABLE.

AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LEFT SMALL
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHWEST COUNTIES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER BY MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY.

GENERALLY WENT COOLER THAN THE 12Z MOS ON SATURDAY BASED ON
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
NAM LOOKED TOO COOL FOR SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE WARMER GFS ONLY HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S. FINALLY...MONDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
WARM BACK TO 70 DEGREES OR MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO AGREEING
ON A WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH AND GETTING CUT OFF OVER
THE GULF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT MOISTURE/UPPER FORCING FROM THIS UPPER
LOW COULD SWING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE TO HELP THE FORCING OVERCOME THE
INHIBITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE TO 291800Z KIND TAF/...

ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS TO DROP BELOW
10KTS AFTER 300200Z. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO BUMP UP CURRENT SUSTAINED
WIND A FEW KNOTS TO 12KTS. STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTINESS BEFORE
EVENING ENDS. RADAR COVERAGE IS MINIMAL AT MOMENT BUT POTENTIAL
REMAINS FOR VICINITY STORMS THROUGH DARKNESS THIS EVENING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 292032
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
432 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 60S ON SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY SOUTH OVER KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES MAY
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MCV OVER EASTERN
TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE OZARKS BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL KEEP IT
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WITH ONLY WEAK
SHEAR...COULD SEE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THEN...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MODELS AGREE THE FRONT WILL BE
JUST WEST OF A CHICAGO TO ST. LOUIS LINE AT 12Z.

SO...WILL GO WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
SOUTHEAST.

12Z MOS TEMPERATURE VERY CLOSE AND LOOK GOOD WITH CURRENT DEW
POINTS...CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW LEVEL FLOW AND CLOUD COVER
CONSIDERATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT
TERM WITH TEMPERATURES JUST OFF TO THE CENTER OF STAGE.

12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR
FORT WAYNE TO TERRE HAUTE LINE BY 18Z SATURDAY AND TO ABOUT A
GREENSBURG TO BEDFORD LINE BY 00Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS
THE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MCV OVER EASTERN TEXAS WILL
SPIN UP A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND INTERACT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO NEAR 2 INCHES. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT
QPF...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A NEW CASTLE TO BEDFORD LINE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
PROBABILITY GRAPHIC. ALSO...WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE MOST INSTABILITY DRIVEN (MIXED LAYER CAPES
TO 1000 J/KG OR SO) WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AVAILABLE.

AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LEFT SMALL
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHWEST COUNTIES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER BY MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY.

GENERALLY WENT COOLER THAN THE 12Z MOS ON SATURDAY BASED ON
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
NAM LOOKED TOO COOL FOR SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE WARMER GFS ONLY HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S. FINALLY...MONDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
WARM BACK TO 70 DEGREES OR MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO AGREEING
ON A WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH AND GETTING CUT OFF OVER
THE GULF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT MOISTURE/UPPER FORCING FROM THIS UPPER
LOW COULD SWING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE TO HELP THE FORCING OVERCOME THE
INHIBITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE TO 291800Z KIND TAF/...

ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS TO DROP BELOW
10KTS AFTER 300200Z. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO BUMP UP CURRENT SUSTAINED
WIND A FEW KNOTS TO 12KTS. STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTINESS BEFORE
EVENING ENDS. RADAR COVERAGE IS MINIMAL AT MOMENT BUT POTENTIAL
REMAINS FOR VICINITY STORMS THROUGH DARKNESS THIS EVENING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 291927
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
327 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SHORT TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 60S ON SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY SOUTH OVER KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES MAY
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MCV OVER EASTERN
TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE OZARKS BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL KEEP IT
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WITH ONLY WEAK
SHEAR...COULD SEE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THEN...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MODELS AGREE THE FRONT WILL BE
JUST WEST OF A CHICAGO TO ST. LOUIS LINE AT 12Z.

SO...WILL GO WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
SOUTHEAST.

12Z MOS TEMPERATURE VERY CLOSE AND LOOK GOOD WITH CURRENT DEW
POINTS...CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW LEVEL FLOW AND CLOUD COVER
CONSIDERATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT
TERM WITH TEMPERATURES JUST OFF TO THE CENTER OF STAGE.

12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR
FORT WAYNE TO TERRE HAUTE LINE BY 18Z SATURDAY AND TO ABOUT A
GREENSBURG TO BEDFORD LINE BY 00Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS
THE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MCV OVER EASTERN TEXAS WILL
SPIN UP A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND INTERACT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO NEAR 2 INCHES. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT
QPF...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A NEW CASTLE TO BEDFORD LINE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
PROBABILITY GRAPHIC. ALSO...WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE MOST INSTABILITY DRIVEN (MIXED LAYER CAPES
TO 1000 J/KG OR SO) WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AVAILABLE.

AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LEFT SMALL
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHWEST COUNTIES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER BY MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY.

GENERALLY WENT COOLER THAN THE 12Z MOS ON SATURDAY BASED ON
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
NAM LOOKED TOO COOL FOR SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE WARMER GFS ONLY HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S. FINALLY...MONDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
WARM BACK TO 70 DEGREES OR MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO AGREEING
ON A WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH AND GETTING CUT OFF OVER
THE GULF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT MOISTURE/UPPER FORCING FROM THIS UPPER
LOW COULD SWING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE TO HELP THE FORCING OVERCOME THE
INHIBITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP AROUND CENTRAL INDIANA
JUST BEFORE 1 PM. THUS FAR NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS BEING
REPORTED WITH THESE...BUT WITH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE EXPECT THAT
LIGHTNING WILL DEVELOP. WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE AT BEST AT THIS POINT
AND NO IMPETUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE WITH
VCTS FOR THE SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THUNDER IMPACTING ANY PARTICULAR
SITE...BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS ALREADY ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THINK DROPPING ANY THUNDER MENTION IS PREMATURE. COULD
INTRODUCE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND
SHIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING AND
THUS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 291927
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
327 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SHORT TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 60S ON SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY SOUTH OVER KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES MAY
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MCV OVER EASTERN
TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE OZARKS BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL KEEP IT
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WITH ONLY WEAK
SHEAR...COULD SEE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THEN...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MODELS AGREE THE FRONT WILL BE
JUST WEST OF A CHICAGO TO ST. LOUIS LINE AT 12Z.

SO...WILL GO WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
SOUTHEAST.

12Z MOS TEMPERATURE VERY CLOSE AND LOOK GOOD WITH CURRENT DEW
POINTS...CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW LEVEL FLOW AND CLOUD COVER
CONSIDERATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT
TERM WITH TEMPERATURES JUST OFF TO THE CENTER OF STAGE.

12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR
FORT WAYNE TO TERRE HAUTE LINE BY 18Z SATURDAY AND TO ABOUT A
GREENSBURG TO BEDFORD LINE BY 00Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS
THE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MCV OVER EASTERN TEXAS WILL
SPIN UP A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND INTERACT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO NEAR 2 INCHES. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT
QPF...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A NEW CASTLE TO BEDFORD LINE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
PROBABILITY GRAPHIC. ALSO...WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE MOST INSTABILITY DRIVEN (MIXED LAYER CAPES
TO 1000 J/KG OR SO) WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AVAILABLE.

AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LEFT SMALL
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHWEST COUNTIES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER BY MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY.

GENERALLY WENT COOLER THAN THE 12Z MOS ON SATURDAY BASED ON
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
NAM LOOKED TOO COOL FOR SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE WARMER GFS ONLY HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S. FINALLY...MONDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
WARM BACK TO 70 DEGREES OR MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO AGREEING
ON A WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH AND GETTING CUT OFF OVER
THE GULF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT MOISTURE/UPPER FORCING FROM THIS UPPER
LOW COULD SWING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE TO HELP THE FORCING OVERCOME THE
INHIBITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP AROUND CENTRAL INDIANA
JUST BEFORE 1 PM. THUS FAR NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS BEING
REPORTED WITH THESE...BUT WITH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE EXPECT THAT
LIGHTNING WILL DEVELOP. WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE AT BEST AT THIS POINT
AND NO IMPETUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE WITH
VCTS FOR THE SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THUNDER IMPACTING ANY PARTICULAR
SITE...BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS ALREADY ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THINK DROPPING ANY THUNDER MENTION IS PREMATURE. COULD
INTRODUCE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND
SHIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING AND
THUS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 291927
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
327 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SHORT TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 60S ON SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY SOUTH OVER KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES MAY
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MCV OVER EASTERN
TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE OZARKS BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL KEEP IT
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WITH ONLY WEAK
SHEAR...COULD SEE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THEN...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MODELS AGREE THE FRONT WILL BE
JUST WEST OF A CHICAGO TO ST. LOUIS LINE AT 12Z.

SO...WILL GO WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
SOUTHEAST.

12Z MOS TEMPERATURE VERY CLOSE AND LOOK GOOD WITH CURRENT DEW
POINTS...CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW LEVEL FLOW AND CLOUD COVER
CONSIDERATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT
TERM WITH TEMPERATURES JUST OFF TO THE CENTER OF STAGE.

12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR
FORT WAYNE TO TERRE HAUTE LINE BY 18Z SATURDAY AND TO ABOUT A
GREENSBURG TO BEDFORD LINE BY 00Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS
THE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MCV OVER EASTERN TEXAS WILL
SPIN UP A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND INTERACT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO NEAR 2 INCHES. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT
QPF...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A NEW CASTLE TO BEDFORD LINE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
PROBABILITY GRAPHIC. ALSO...WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE MOST INSTABILITY DRIVEN (MIXED LAYER CAPES
TO 1000 J/KG OR SO) WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AVAILABLE.

AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LEFT SMALL
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHWEST COUNTIES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER BY MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY.

GENERALLY WENT COOLER THAN THE 12Z MOS ON SATURDAY BASED ON
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
NAM LOOKED TOO COOL FOR SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE WARMER GFS ONLY HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S. FINALLY...MONDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
WARM BACK TO 70 DEGREES OR MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO AGREEING
ON A WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH AND GETTING CUT OFF OVER
THE GULF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT MOISTURE/UPPER FORCING FROM THIS UPPER
LOW COULD SWING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE TO HELP THE FORCING OVERCOME THE
INHIBITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP AROUND CENTRAL INDIANA
JUST BEFORE 1 PM. THUS FAR NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS BEING
REPORTED WITH THESE...BUT WITH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE EXPECT THAT
LIGHTNING WILL DEVELOP. WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE AT BEST AT THIS POINT
AND NO IMPETUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE WITH
VCTS FOR THE SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THUNDER IMPACTING ANY PARTICULAR
SITE...BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS ALREADY ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THINK DROPPING ANY THUNDER MENTION IS PREMATURE. COULD
INTRODUCE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND
SHIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING AND
THUS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 291927
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
327 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SHORT TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 60S ON SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY SOUTH OVER KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES MAY
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MCV OVER EASTERN
TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE OZARKS BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL KEEP IT
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WITH ONLY WEAK
SHEAR...COULD SEE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THEN...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MODELS AGREE THE FRONT WILL BE
JUST WEST OF A CHICAGO TO ST. LOUIS LINE AT 12Z.

SO...WILL GO WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
SOUTHEAST.

12Z MOS TEMPERATURE VERY CLOSE AND LOOK GOOD WITH CURRENT DEW
POINTS...CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW LEVEL FLOW AND CLOUD COVER
CONSIDERATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT
TERM WITH TEMPERATURES JUST OFF TO THE CENTER OF STAGE.

12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR
FORT WAYNE TO TERRE HAUTE LINE BY 18Z SATURDAY AND TO ABOUT A
GREENSBURG TO BEDFORD LINE BY 00Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS
THE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MCV OVER EASTERN TEXAS WILL
SPIN UP A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND INTERACT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO NEAR 2 INCHES. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT
QPF...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A NEW CASTLE TO BEDFORD LINE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
PROBABILITY GRAPHIC. ALSO...WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE MOST INSTABILITY DRIVEN (MIXED LAYER CAPES
TO 1000 J/KG OR SO) WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AVAILABLE.

AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LEFT SMALL
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHWEST COUNTIES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER BY MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY.

GENERALLY WENT COOLER THAN THE 12Z MOS ON SATURDAY BASED ON
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
NAM LOOKED TOO COOL FOR SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE WARMER GFS ONLY HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S. FINALLY...MONDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
WARM BACK TO 70 DEGREES OR MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO AGREEING
ON A WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH AND GETTING CUT OFF OVER
THE GULF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT MOISTURE/UPPER FORCING FROM THIS UPPER
LOW COULD SWING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE TO HELP THE FORCING OVERCOME THE
INHIBITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP AROUND CENTRAL INDIANA
JUST BEFORE 1 PM. THUS FAR NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS BEING
REPORTED WITH THESE...BUT WITH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE EXPECT THAT
LIGHTNING WILL DEVELOP. WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE AT BEST AT THIS POINT
AND NO IMPETUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE WITH
VCTS FOR THE SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THUNDER IMPACTING ANY PARTICULAR
SITE...BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS ALREADY ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THINK DROPPING ANY THUNDER MENTION IS PREMATURE. COULD
INTRODUCE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND
SHIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING AND
THUS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 291906
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS AND NEAR TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 60S ON SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY SOUTH OVER KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES MAY
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MCV OVER EASTERN
TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE OZARKS BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL KEEP IT
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WITH ONLY WEAK
SHEAR...COULD SEE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THEN...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MODELS AGREE THE FRONT WILL BE
JUST WEST OF A CHICAGO TO ST. LOUIS LINE AT 12Z.

SO...WILL GO WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
SOUTHEAST.

12Z MOS TEMPERATURE VERY CLOSE AND LOOK GOOD WITH CURRENT DEW
POINTS...CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW LEVEL FLOW AND CLOUD COVER
CONSIDERATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. GFS AND
NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY BEGINS TO EDGE EAST
TONIGHT...PUSHING DYNAMICS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LINGERING DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE A CONTINUED FACTOR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION ALSO. THUS
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
THE CATEGORICAL POPS OF THE MAVMOS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN
AND WARM...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN
MAVMOS.

RAINS FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY APPEAR QUIET FAVORABLE ALSO. GFS AND
NAM SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA ON
SATURDAY PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOW
DEEP SATURATION...WITH CAPE AVAILABLE LOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...PROVIDING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
FINALLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING MORE
FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.70-1.80
INCHES. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON
SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
SATURDAY HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS AND STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS AS A NEW AIR MASS IN INTRODUCED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY SHOW SOME LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DRY OUT QUICKLY AS COLD FRONT SAG FARTHER SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT. FURTHERMORE...INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE
TROUGHING ALOFT APPEARS TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE COOLER AND DRIER...CONTINENTAL NORTHEAST FLOW TAKES
PLACE...PROVIDING FURTHER DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. THUS OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES LINGERING ON
SUNDAY MORNING...WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
COOLER NE FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL ALSO TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW
MAVMOS/MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO AGREEING
ON A WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH AND GETTING CUT OFF OVER
THE GULF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT MOISTURE/UPPER FORCING FROM THIS UPPER
LOW COULD SWING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE TO HELP THE FORCING OVERCOME THE
INHIBITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP AROUND CENTRAL INDIANA
JUST BEFORE 1 PM. THUS FAR NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS BEING
REPORTED WITH THESE...BUT WITH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE EXPECT THAT
LIGHTNING WILL DEVELOP. WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE AT BEST AT THIS POINT
AND NO IMPETUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE WITH
VCTS FOR THE SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THUNDER IMPACTING ANY PARTICULAR
SITE...BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS ALREADY ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THINK DROPPING ANY THUNDER MENTION IS PREMATURE. COULD
INTRODUCE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND
SHIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING AND
THUS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 291906
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS AND NEAR TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 60S ON SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY SOUTH OVER KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES MAY
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MCV OVER EASTERN
TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE OZARKS BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL KEEP IT
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WITH ONLY WEAK
SHEAR...COULD SEE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THEN...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MODELS AGREE THE FRONT WILL BE
JUST WEST OF A CHICAGO TO ST. LOUIS LINE AT 12Z.

SO...WILL GO WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
SOUTHEAST.

12Z MOS TEMPERATURE VERY CLOSE AND LOOK GOOD WITH CURRENT DEW
POINTS...CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW LEVEL FLOW AND CLOUD COVER
CONSIDERATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. GFS AND
NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY BEGINS TO EDGE EAST
TONIGHT...PUSHING DYNAMICS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LINGERING DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE A CONTINUED FACTOR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION ALSO. THUS
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
THE CATEGORICAL POPS OF THE MAVMOS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN
AND WARM...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN
MAVMOS.

RAINS FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY APPEAR QUIET FAVORABLE ALSO. GFS AND
NAM SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA ON
SATURDAY PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOW
DEEP SATURATION...WITH CAPE AVAILABLE LOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...PROVIDING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
FINALLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING MORE
FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.70-1.80
INCHES. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON
SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
SATURDAY HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS AND STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS AS A NEW AIR MASS IN INTRODUCED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY SHOW SOME LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DRY OUT QUICKLY AS COLD FRONT SAG FARTHER SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT. FURTHERMORE...INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE
TROUGHING ALOFT APPEARS TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE COOLER AND DRIER...CONTINENTAL NORTHEAST FLOW TAKES
PLACE...PROVIDING FURTHER DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. THUS OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES LINGERING ON
SUNDAY MORNING...WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
COOLER NE FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL ALSO TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW
MAVMOS/MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO AGREEING
ON A WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH AND GETTING CUT OFF OVER
THE GULF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT MOISTURE/UPPER FORCING FROM THIS UPPER
LOW COULD SWING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE TO HELP THE FORCING OVERCOME THE
INHIBITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP AROUND CENTRAL INDIANA
JUST BEFORE 1 PM. THUS FAR NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS BEING
REPORTED WITH THESE...BUT WITH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE EXPECT THAT
LIGHTNING WILL DEVELOP. WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE AT BEST AT THIS POINT
AND NO IMPETUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE WITH
VCTS FOR THE SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THUNDER IMPACTING ANY PARTICULAR
SITE...BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS ALREADY ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THINK DROPPING ANY THUNDER MENTION IS PREMATURE. COULD
INTRODUCE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND
SHIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING AND
THUS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 291906
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS AND NEAR TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 60S ON SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY SOUTH OVER KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES MAY
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MCV OVER EASTERN
TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE OZARKS BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL KEEP IT
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WITH ONLY WEAK
SHEAR...COULD SEE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THEN...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MODELS AGREE THE FRONT WILL BE
JUST WEST OF A CHICAGO TO ST. LOUIS LINE AT 12Z.

SO...WILL GO WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
SOUTHEAST.

12Z MOS TEMPERATURE VERY CLOSE AND LOOK GOOD WITH CURRENT DEW
POINTS...CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW LEVEL FLOW AND CLOUD COVER
CONSIDERATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. GFS AND
NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY BEGINS TO EDGE EAST
TONIGHT...PUSHING DYNAMICS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LINGERING DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE A CONTINUED FACTOR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION ALSO. THUS
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
THE CATEGORICAL POPS OF THE MAVMOS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN
AND WARM...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN
MAVMOS.

RAINS FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY APPEAR QUIET FAVORABLE ALSO. GFS AND
NAM SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA ON
SATURDAY PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOW
DEEP SATURATION...WITH CAPE AVAILABLE LOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...PROVIDING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
FINALLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING MORE
FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.70-1.80
INCHES. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON
SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
SATURDAY HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS AND STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS AS A NEW AIR MASS IN INTRODUCED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY SHOW SOME LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DRY OUT QUICKLY AS COLD FRONT SAG FARTHER SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT. FURTHERMORE...INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE
TROUGHING ALOFT APPEARS TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE COOLER AND DRIER...CONTINENTAL NORTHEAST FLOW TAKES
PLACE...PROVIDING FURTHER DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. THUS OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES LINGERING ON
SUNDAY MORNING...WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
COOLER NE FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL ALSO TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW
MAVMOS/MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO AGREEING
ON A WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH AND GETTING CUT OFF OVER
THE GULF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT MOISTURE/UPPER FORCING FROM THIS UPPER
LOW COULD SWING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE TO HELP THE FORCING OVERCOME THE
INHIBITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP AROUND CENTRAL INDIANA
JUST BEFORE 1 PM. THUS FAR NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS BEING
REPORTED WITH THESE...BUT WITH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE EXPECT THAT
LIGHTNING WILL DEVELOP. WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE AT BEST AT THIS POINT
AND NO IMPETUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE WITH
VCTS FOR THE SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THUNDER IMPACTING ANY PARTICULAR
SITE...BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS ALREADY ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THINK DROPPING ANY THUNDER MENTION IS PREMATURE. COULD
INTRODUCE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND
SHIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING AND
THUS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 291906
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS AND NEAR TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 60S ON SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY SOUTH OVER KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES MAY
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MCV OVER EASTERN
TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE OZARKS BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL KEEP IT
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WITH ONLY WEAK
SHEAR...COULD SEE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THEN...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MODELS AGREE THE FRONT WILL BE
JUST WEST OF A CHICAGO TO ST. LOUIS LINE AT 12Z.

SO...WILL GO WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
SOUTHEAST.

12Z MOS TEMPERATURE VERY CLOSE AND LOOK GOOD WITH CURRENT DEW
POINTS...CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW LEVEL FLOW AND CLOUD COVER
CONSIDERATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. GFS AND
NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY BEGINS TO EDGE EAST
TONIGHT...PUSHING DYNAMICS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LINGERING DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE A CONTINUED FACTOR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION ALSO. THUS
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
THE CATEGORICAL POPS OF THE MAVMOS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN
AND WARM...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN
MAVMOS.

RAINS FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY APPEAR QUIET FAVORABLE ALSO. GFS AND
NAM SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA ON
SATURDAY PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOW
DEEP SATURATION...WITH CAPE AVAILABLE LOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...PROVIDING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
FINALLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING MORE
FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.70-1.80
INCHES. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON
SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
SATURDAY HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS AND STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS AS A NEW AIR MASS IN INTRODUCED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY SHOW SOME LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DRY OUT QUICKLY AS COLD FRONT SAG FARTHER SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT. FURTHERMORE...INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE
TROUGHING ALOFT APPEARS TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE COOLER AND DRIER...CONTINENTAL NORTHEAST FLOW TAKES
PLACE...PROVIDING FURTHER DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. THUS OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES LINGERING ON
SUNDAY MORNING...WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
COOLER NE FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL ALSO TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW
MAVMOS/MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO AGREEING
ON A WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH AND GETTING CUT OFF OVER
THE GULF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT MOISTURE/UPPER FORCING FROM THIS UPPER
LOW COULD SWING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE TO HELP THE FORCING OVERCOME THE
INHIBITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP AROUND CENTRAL INDIANA
JUST BEFORE 1 PM. THUS FAR NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS BEING
REPORTED WITH THESE...BUT WITH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE EXPECT THAT
LIGHTNING WILL DEVELOP. WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE AT BEST AT THIS POINT
AND NO IMPETUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE WITH
VCTS FOR THE SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THUNDER IMPACTING ANY PARTICULAR
SITE...BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS ALREADY ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THINK DROPPING ANY THUNDER MENTION IS PREMATURE. COULD
INTRODUCE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND
SHIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING AND
THUS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 291824
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
224 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CHANGEABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND. WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON NORTHEAST
WINDS.

THROUGH THE NEXT WORK WEEK...SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER AS WARMER AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY RETURNS
AS THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BERMUDA HIGH WAS
IN PLACE PROVIDING AND EASTERLY FLOW TO SERN UNITED STATES AND A
WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
INDIANA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG WITH A COUPLE SHORT WAVE EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD AMID THE FLOW ALOFT. RADAR WAS QUIET AND DEW POINT
TEMPS WERE IN THE MOIST LOWER 60S.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE PUSHING NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF THE UPPER
SUPPORT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE LEADS TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD ANY UPPER SUPPORT
ARRIVE...THAT WILL JUST BE GRAVY IN THE CONVECTION/PRECIP CHANCES.

THUS WILL TREND FOR POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS. AS FOR TEMPS...LITTLE
TO NO ADVECTION APPEARS IN PLACE AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN PRETTY
STEADY STATE. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. GFS AND
NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY BEGINS TO EDGE EAST
TONIGHT...PUSHING DYNAMICS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LINGERING DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE A CONTINUED FACTOR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION ALSO. THUS
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
THE CATEGORICAL POPS OF THE MAVMOS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN
AND WARM...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN
MAVMOS.

RAINS FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY APPEAR QUIET FAVORABLE ALSO. GFS AND
NAM SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA ON
SATURDAY PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOW
DEEP SATURATION...WITH CAPE AVAILABLE LOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...PROVIDING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
FINALLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING MORE
FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.70-1.80
INCHES. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON
SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
SATURDAY HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS AND STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS AS A NEW AIR MASS IN INTRODUCED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY SHOW SOME LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DRY OUT QUICKLY AS COLD FRONT SAG FARTHER SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT. FURTHERMORE...INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE
TROUGHING ALOFT APPEARS TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE COOLER AND DRIER...CONTINENTAL NORTHEAST FLOW TAKES
PLACE...PROVIDING FURTHER DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. THUS OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES LINGERING ON
SUNDAY MORNING...WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
COOLER NE FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL ALSO TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW
MAVMOS/MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO AGREEING
ON A WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH AND GETTING CUT OFF OVER
THE GULF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT MOISTURE/UPPER FORCING FROM THIS UPPER
LOW COULD SWING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE TO HELP THE FORCING OVERCOME THE
INHIBITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP AROUND CENTRAL INDIANA
JUST BEFORE 1 PM. THUS FAR NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS BEING
REPORTED WITH THESE...BUT WITH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE EXPECT THAT
LIGHTNING WILL DEVELOP. WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE AT BEST AT THIS POINT
AND NO IMPETUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE WITH
VCTS FOR THE SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THUNDER IMPACTING ANY PARTICULAR
SITE...BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS ALREADY ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THINK DROPPING ANY THUNDER MENTION IS PREMATURE. COULD
INTRODUCE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND
SHIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING AND
THUS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 291824
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
224 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CHANGEABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND. WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON NORTHEAST
WINDS.

THROUGH THE NEXT WORK WEEK...SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER AS WARMER AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY RETURNS
AS THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BERMUDA HIGH WAS
IN PLACE PROVIDING AND EASTERLY FLOW TO SERN UNITED STATES AND A
WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
INDIANA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG WITH A COUPLE SHORT WAVE EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD AMID THE FLOW ALOFT. RADAR WAS QUIET AND DEW POINT
TEMPS WERE IN THE MOIST LOWER 60S.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE PUSHING NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF THE UPPER
SUPPORT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE LEADS TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD ANY UPPER SUPPORT
ARRIVE...THAT WILL JUST BE GRAVY IN THE CONVECTION/PRECIP CHANCES.

THUS WILL TREND FOR POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS. AS FOR TEMPS...LITTLE
TO NO ADVECTION APPEARS IN PLACE AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN PRETTY
STEADY STATE. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. GFS AND
NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY BEGINS TO EDGE EAST
TONIGHT...PUSHING DYNAMICS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LINGERING DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE A CONTINUED FACTOR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION ALSO. THUS
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
THE CATEGORICAL POPS OF THE MAVMOS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN
AND WARM...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN
MAVMOS.

RAINS FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY APPEAR QUIET FAVORABLE ALSO. GFS AND
NAM SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA ON
SATURDAY PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOW
DEEP SATURATION...WITH CAPE AVAILABLE LOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...PROVIDING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
FINALLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING MORE
FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.70-1.80
INCHES. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON
SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
SATURDAY HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS AND STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS AS A NEW AIR MASS IN INTRODUCED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY SHOW SOME LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DRY OUT QUICKLY AS COLD FRONT SAG FARTHER SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT. FURTHERMORE...INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE
TROUGHING ALOFT APPEARS TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE COOLER AND DRIER...CONTINENTAL NORTHEAST FLOW TAKES
PLACE...PROVIDING FURTHER DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. THUS OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES LINGERING ON
SUNDAY MORNING...WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
COOLER NE FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL ALSO TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW
MAVMOS/MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO AGREEING
ON A WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH AND GETTING CUT OFF OVER
THE GULF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT MOISTURE/UPPER FORCING FROM THIS UPPER
LOW COULD SWING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE TO HELP THE FORCING OVERCOME THE
INHIBITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP AROUND CENTRAL INDIANA
JUST BEFORE 1 PM. THUS FAR NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS BEING
REPORTED WITH THESE...BUT WITH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE EXPECT THAT
LIGHTNING WILL DEVELOP. WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE AT BEST AT THIS POINT
AND NO IMPETUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE WITH
VCTS FOR THE SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THUNDER IMPACTING ANY PARTICULAR
SITE...BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS ALREADY ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THINK DROPPING ANY THUNDER MENTION IS PREMATURE. COULD
INTRODUCE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND
SHIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING AND
THUS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 291703
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
103 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CHANGEABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND. WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON NORTHEAST
WINDS.

THROUGH THE NEXT WORK WEEK...SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER AS WARMER AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY RETURNS
AS THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BERMUDA HIGH WAS
IN PLACE PROVIDING AND EASTERLY FLOW TO SERN UNITED STATES AND A
WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
INDIANA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG WITH A COUPLE SHORT WAVE EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD AMID THE FLOW ALOFT. RADAR WAS QUIET AND DEW POINT
TEMPS WERE IN THE MOIST LOWER 60S.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE PUSHING NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF THE UPPER
SUPPORT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE LEADS TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD ANY UPPER SUPPORT
ARRIVE...THAT WILL JUST BE GRAVY IN THE CONVECTION/PRECIP CHANCES.

THUS WILL TREND FOR POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS. AS FOR TEMPS...LITTLE
TO NO ADVECTION APPEARS IN PLACE AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN PRETTY
STEADY STATE. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. GFS AND
NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY BEGINS TO EDGE EAST
TONIGHT...PUSHING DYNAMICS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LINGERING DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE A CONTINUED FACTOR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION ALSO. THUS
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
THE CATEGORICAL POPS OF THE MAVMOS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN
AND WARM...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN
MAVMOS.

RAINS FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY APPEAR QUIET FAVORABLE ALSO. GFS AND
NAM SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA ON
SATURDAY PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOW
DEEP SATURATION...WITH CAPE AVAILABLE LOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...PROVIDING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
FINALLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING MORE
FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.70-1.80
INCHES. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON
SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
SATURDAY HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS AND STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS AS A NEW AIR MASS IN INTRODUCED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY SHOW SOME LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DRY OUT QUICKLY AS COLD FRONT SAG FARTHER SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT. FURTHERMORE...INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE
TROUGHING ALOFT APPEARS TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE COOLER AND DRIER...CONTINENTAL NORTHEAST FLOW TAKES
PLACE...PROVIDING FURTHER DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. THUS OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES LINGERING ON
SUNDAY MORNING...WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
COOLER NE FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL ALSO TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW
MAVMOS/MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS...WILL
CUTOFF DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES. RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CUTOFF ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL CARRY SOME
CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND KEEP THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA DRY.

APPEARS ENOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE MAY EVENTUALLY PUSH NORTH INTO THE
AREA AROUND UPPER LOW TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP AROUND CENTRAL INDIANA
JUST BEFORE 1 PM. THUS FAR NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS BEING
REPORTED WITH THESE...BUT WITH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE EXPECT THAT
LIGHTNING WILL DEVELOP. WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE AT BEST AT THIS POINT
AND NO IMPETUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE WITH
VCTS FOR THE SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THUNDER IMPACTING ANY PARTICULAR
SITE...BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS ALREADY ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THINK DROPPING ANY THUNDER MENTION IS PREMATURE. COULD
INTRODUCE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND
SHIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING AND
THUS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 291703
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
103 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CHANGEABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND. WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON NORTHEAST
WINDS.

THROUGH THE NEXT WORK WEEK...SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER AS WARMER AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY RETURNS
AS THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BERMUDA HIGH WAS
IN PLACE PROVIDING AND EASTERLY FLOW TO SERN UNITED STATES AND A
WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
INDIANA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG WITH A COUPLE SHORT WAVE EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD AMID THE FLOW ALOFT. RADAR WAS QUIET AND DEW POINT
TEMPS WERE IN THE MOIST LOWER 60S.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE PUSHING NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF THE UPPER
SUPPORT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE LEADS TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD ANY UPPER SUPPORT
ARRIVE...THAT WILL JUST BE GRAVY IN THE CONVECTION/PRECIP CHANCES.

THUS WILL TREND FOR POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS. AS FOR TEMPS...LITTLE
TO NO ADVECTION APPEARS IN PLACE AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN PRETTY
STEADY STATE. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. GFS AND
NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY BEGINS TO EDGE EAST
TONIGHT...PUSHING DYNAMICS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LINGERING DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE A CONTINUED FACTOR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION ALSO. THUS
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
THE CATEGORICAL POPS OF THE MAVMOS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN
AND WARM...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN
MAVMOS.

RAINS FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY APPEAR QUIET FAVORABLE ALSO. GFS AND
NAM SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA ON
SATURDAY PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOW
DEEP SATURATION...WITH CAPE AVAILABLE LOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...PROVIDING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
FINALLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING MORE
FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.70-1.80
INCHES. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON
SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
SATURDAY HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS AND STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS AS A NEW AIR MASS IN INTRODUCED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY SHOW SOME LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DRY OUT QUICKLY AS COLD FRONT SAG FARTHER SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT. FURTHERMORE...INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE
TROUGHING ALOFT APPEARS TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE COOLER AND DRIER...CONTINENTAL NORTHEAST FLOW TAKES
PLACE...PROVIDING FURTHER DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. THUS OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES LINGERING ON
SUNDAY MORNING...WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
COOLER NE FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL ALSO TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW
MAVMOS/MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS...WILL
CUTOFF DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES. RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CUTOFF ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL CARRY SOME
CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND KEEP THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA DRY.

APPEARS ENOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE MAY EVENTUALLY PUSH NORTH INTO THE
AREA AROUND UPPER LOW TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP AROUND CENTRAL INDIANA
JUST BEFORE 1 PM. THUS FAR NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS BEING
REPORTED WITH THESE...BUT WITH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE EXPECT THAT
LIGHTNING WILL DEVELOP. WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE AT BEST AT THIS POINT
AND NO IMPETUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE WITH
VCTS FOR THE SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THUNDER IMPACTING ANY PARTICULAR
SITE...BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS ALREADY ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THINK DROPPING ANY THUNDER MENTION IS PREMATURE. COULD
INTRODUCE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND
SHIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING AND
THUS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 291422
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1021 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CHANGEABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND. WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON NORTHEAST
WINDS.

THROUGH THE NEXT WORK WEEK...SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER AS WARMER AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY RETURNS
AS THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BERMUDA HIGH WAS
IN PLACE PROVIDING AND EASTERLY FLOW TO SERN UNITED STATES AND A
WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
INDIANA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG WITH A COUPLE SHORT WAVE EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD AMID THE FLOW ALOFT. RADAR WAS QUIET AND DEW POINT
TEMPS WERE IN THE MOIST LOWER 60S.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE PUSHING NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF THE UPPER
SUPPORT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE LEADS TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD ANY UPPER SUPPORT
ARRIVE...THAT WILL JUST BE GRAVY IN THE CONVECTION/PRECIP CHANCES.

THUS WILL TREND FOR POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS. AS FOR TEMPS...LITTLE
TO NO ADVECTION APPEARS IN PLACE AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN PRETTY
STEADY STATE. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. GFS AND
NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY BEGINS TO EDGE EAST
TONIGHT...PUSHING DYNAMICS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LINGERING DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE A CONTINUED FACTOR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION ALSO. THUS
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
THE CATEGORICAL POPS OF THE MAVMOS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN
AND WARM...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN
MAVMOS.

RAINS FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY APPEAR QUIET FAVORABLE ALSO. GFS AND
NAM SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA ON
SATURDAY PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOW
DEEP SATURATION...WITH CAPE AVAILABLE LOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...PROVIDING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
FINALLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING MORE
FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.70-1.80
INCHES. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON
SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
SATURDAY HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS AND STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS AS A NEW AIR MASS IN INTRODUCED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY SHOW SOME LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DRY OUT QUICKLY AS COLD FRONT SAG FARTHER SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT. FURTHERMORE...INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE
TROUGHING ALOFT APPEARS TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE COOLER AND DRIER...CONTINENTAL NORTHEAST FLOW TAKES
PLACE...PROVIDING FURTHER DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. THUS OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES LINGERING ON
SUNDAY MORNING...WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
COOLER NE FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL ALSO TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW
MAVMOS/MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS...WILL
CUTOFF DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES. RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CUTOFF ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL CARRY SOME
CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND KEEP THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA DRY.

APPEARS ENOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE MAY EVENTUALLY PUSH NORTH INTO THE
AREA AROUND UPPER LOW TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 291500Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND BROUGHT LOWER /BUT STILL VFR/ DECK IN
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. A BIT OF CONCERN THAT MVFR DECK CURRENTLY IN
SOUTHERN INDIANA COULD MOVE NORTH INTO KBMG...BUT AT THIS POINT
SEEMS MORE LIKE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE SO WILL ADD A FEW-SCT DECK AT MVFR
LEVELS AT KBMG BUT WILL KEEP CEILING VFR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS RATHER HIGH OVER THE TERMINALS LATER
TODAY WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CAP.
MAY START TO SEE DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS 291700Z. HOWEVER...DON/T
REALLY SEE A CLEAR CUT TRIGGER OR FOCUS AT THIS TIME TO PIN DOWN
LOCATION AND TIMING. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE THREAT WITH A CB
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. CB BASES AROUND 030. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
AND GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION.
APPEARS CONVECTIVE THREAT MAY CONTINUE PAST 300000Z WITH A POSSIBLE
UPPER WAVE THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS BECOMING 160-190 DEGREES AT 10-14 KTS BY
LATE MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 291422
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1021 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CHANGEABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND. WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON NORTHEAST
WINDS.

THROUGH THE NEXT WORK WEEK...SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER AS WARMER AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY RETURNS
AS THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BERMUDA HIGH WAS
IN PLACE PROVIDING AND EASTERLY FLOW TO SERN UNITED STATES AND A
WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
INDIANA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG WITH A COUPLE SHORT WAVE EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD AMID THE FLOW ALOFT. RADAR WAS QUIET AND DEW POINT
TEMPS WERE IN THE MOIST LOWER 60S.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE PUSHING NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF THE UPPER
SUPPORT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE LEADS TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD ANY UPPER SUPPORT
ARRIVE...THAT WILL JUST BE GRAVY IN THE CONVECTION/PRECIP CHANCES.

THUS WILL TREND FOR POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS. AS FOR TEMPS...LITTLE
TO NO ADVECTION APPEARS IN PLACE AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN PRETTY
STEADY STATE. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. GFS AND
NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY BEGINS TO EDGE EAST
TONIGHT...PUSHING DYNAMICS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LINGERING DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE A CONTINUED FACTOR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION ALSO. THUS
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
THE CATEGORICAL POPS OF THE MAVMOS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN
AND WARM...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN
MAVMOS.

RAINS FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY APPEAR QUIET FAVORABLE ALSO. GFS AND
NAM SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA ON
SATURDAY PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOW
DEEP SATURATION...WITH CAPE AVAILABLE LOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...PROVIDING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
FINALLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING MORE
FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.70-1.80
INCHES. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON
SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
SATURDAY HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS AND STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS AS A NEW AIR MASS IN INTRODUCED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY SHOW SOME LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DRY OUT QUICKLY AS COLD FRONT SAG FARTHER SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT. FURTHERMORE...INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE
TROUGHING ALOFT APPEARS TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE COOLER AND DRIER...CONTINENTAL NORTHEAST FLOW TAKES
PLACE...PROVIDING FURTHER DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. THUS OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES LINGERING ON
SUNDAY MORNING...WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
COOLER NE FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL ALSO TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW
MAVMOS/MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS...WILL
CUTOFF DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES. RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CUTOFF ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL CARRY SOME
CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND KEEP THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA DRY.

APPEARS ENOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE MAY EVENTUALLY PUSH NORTH INTO THE
AREA AROUND UPPER LOW TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 291500Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND BROUGHT LOWER /BUT STILL VFR/ DECK IN
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. A BIT OF CONCERN THAT MVFR DECK CURRENTLY IN
SOUTHERN INDIANA COULD MOVE NORTH INTO KBMG...BUT AT THIS POINT
SEEMS MORE LIKE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE SO WILL ADD A FEW-SCT DECK AT MVFR
LEVELS AT KBMG BUT WILL KEEP CEILING VFR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS RATHER HIGH OVER THE TERMINALS LATER
TODAY WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CAP.
MAY START TO SEE DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS 291700Z. HOWEVER...DON/T
REALLY SEE A CLEAR CUT TRIGGER OR FOCUS AT THIS TIME TO PIN DOWN
LOCATION AND TIMING. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE THREAT WITH A CB
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. CB BASES AROUND 030. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
AND GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION.
APPEARS CONVECTIVE THREAT MAY CONTINUE PAST 300000Z WITH A POSSIBLE
UPPER WAVE THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS BECOMING 160-190 DEGREES AT 10-14 KTS BY
LATE MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 291037
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
634 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CHANGEABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND. WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON NORTHEAST
WINDS.

THROUGH THE NEXT WORK WEEK...SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER AS WARMER AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY RETURNS
AS THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BERMUDA HIGH WAS
IN PLACE PROVIDING AND EASTERLY FLOW TO SERN UNITED STATES AND A
WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
INDIANA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG WITH A COUPLE SHORT WAVE EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD AMID THE FLOW ALOFT. RADAR WAS QUIET AND DEW POINT
TEMPS WERE IN THE MOIST LOWER 60S.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE PUSHING NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF THE UPPER
SUPPORT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE LEADS TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD ANY UPPER SUPPORT
ARRIVE...THAT WILL JUST BE GRAVY IN THE CONVECTION/PRECIP CHANCES.

THUS WILL TREND FOR POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS. AS FOR TEMPS...LITTLE
TO NO ADVECTION APPEARS IN PLACE AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN PRETTY
STEADY STATE. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. GFS AND
NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY BEGINS TO EDGE EAST
TONIGHT...PUSHING DYNAMICS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LINGERING DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE A CONTINUED FACTOR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION ALSO. THUS
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
THE CATEGORICAL POPS OF THE MAVMOS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN
AND WARM...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN
MAVMOS.

RAINS FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY APPEAR QUIET FAVORABLE ALSO. GFS AND
NAM SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA ON
SATURDAY PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOW
DEEP SATURATION...WITH CAPE AVAILABLE LOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...PROVIDING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
FINALLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING MORE
FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.70-1.80
INCHES. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON
SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
SATURDAY HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS AND STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS AS A NEW AIR MASS IN INTRODUCED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY SHOW SOME LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DRY OUT QUICKLY AS COLD FRONT SAG FARTHER SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT. FURTHERMORE...INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE
TROUGHING ALOFT APPEARS TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE COOLER AND DRIER...CONTINENTAL NORTHEAST FLOW TAKES
PLACE...PROVIDING FURTHER DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. THUS OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES LINGERING ON
SUNDAY MORNING...WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
COOLER NE FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL ALSO TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW
MAVMOS/MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS...WILL
CUTOFF DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES. RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CUTOFF ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL CARRY SOME
CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND KEEP THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA DRY.

APPEARS ENOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE MAY EVENTUALLY PUSH NORTH INTO THE
AREA AROUND UPPER LOW TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 291200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS RATHER HIGH OVER THE TERMINALS LATER
TODAY WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CAP.
MAY START TO SEE DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS 291700Z. HOWEVER...DON/T
REALLY SEE A CLEAR CUT TRIGGER OR FOCUS AT THIS TIME TO PIN DOWN
LOCATION AND TIMING. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE THREAT WITH A CB
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. CB BASES AROUND 030. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
AND GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION.
APPEARS CONVECTIVE THREAT MAY CONTINUE PAST 300000Z WITH A POSSIBLE
UPPER WAVE THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS BECOMING 160-190 DEGREES AT 10-14 KTS BY
LATE MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 291037
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
634 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CHANGEABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND. WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON NORTHEAST
WINDS.

THROUGH THE NEXT WORK WEEK...SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER AS WARMER AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY RETURNS
AS THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BERMUDA HIGH WAS
IN PLACE PROVIDING AND EASTERLY FLOW TO SERN UNITED STATES AND A
WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
INDIANA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG WITH A COUPLE SHORT WAVE EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD AMID THE FLOW ALOFT. RADAR WAS QUIET AND DEW POINT
TEMPS WERE IN THE MOIST LOWER 60S.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE PUSHING NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF THE UPPER
SUPPORT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE LEADS TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD ANY UPPER SUPPORT
ARRIVE...THAT WILL JUST BE GRAVY IN THE CONVECTION/PRECIP CHANCES.

THUS WILL TREND FOR POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS. AS FOR TEMPS...LITTLE
TO NO ADVECTION APPEARS IN PLACE AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN PRETTY
STEADY STATE. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. GFS AND
NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY BEGINS TO EDGE EAST
TONIGHT...PUSHING DYNAMICS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LINGERING DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE A CONTINUED FACTOR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION ALSO. THUS
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
THE CATEGORICAL POPS OF THE MAVMOS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN
AND WARM...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN
MAVMOS.

RAINS FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY APPEAR QUIET FAVORABLE ALSO. GFS AND
NAM SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA ON
SATURDAY PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOW
DEEP SATURATION...WITH CAPE AVAILABLE LOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...PROVIDING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
FINALLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING MORE
FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.70-1.80
INCHES. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON
SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
SATURDAY HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS AND STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS AS A NEW AIR MASS IN INTRODUCED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY SHOW SOME LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DRY OUT QUICKLY AS COLD FRONT SAG FARTHER SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT. FURTHERMORE...INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE
TROUGHING ALOFT APPEARS TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE COOLER AND DRIER...CONTINENTAL NORTHEAST FLOW TAKES
PLACE...PROVIDING FURTHER DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. THUS OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES LINGERING ON
SUNDAY MORNING...WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
COOLER NE FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL ALSO TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW
MAVMOS/MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS...WILL
CUTOFF DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES. RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CUTOFF ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL CARRY SOME
CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND KEEP THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA DRY.

APPEARS ENOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE MAY EVENTUALLY PUSH NORTH INTO THE
AREA AROUND UPPER LOW TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 291200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS RATHER HIGH OVER THE TERMINALS LATER
TODAY WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CAP.
MAY START TO SEE DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS 291700Z. HOWEVER...DON/T
REALLY SEE A CLEAR CUT TRIGGER OR FOCUS AT THIS TIME TO PIN DOWN
LOCATION AND TIMING. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE THREAT WITH A CB
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. CB BASES AROUND 030. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
AND GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION.
APPEARS CONVECTIVE THREAT MAY CONTINUE PAST 300000Z WITH A POSSIBLE
UPPER WAVE THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS BECOMING 160-190 DEGREES AT 10-14 KTS BY
LATE MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 290821
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
419 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CHANGEABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND. WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON NORTHEAST
WINDS.

THROUGH THE NEXT WORK WEEK...SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER AS WARMER AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY RETURNS
AS THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BERMUDA HIGH WAS
IN PLACE PROVIDING AND EASTERLY FLOW TO SERN UNITED STATES AND A
WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
INDIANA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG WITH A COUPLE SHORT WAVE EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD AMID THE FLOW ALOFT. RADAR WAS QUIET AND DEW POINT
TEMPS WERE IN THE MOIST LOWER 60S.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE PUSHING NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF THE UPPER
SUPPORT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE LEADS TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD ANY UPPER SUPPORT
ARRIVE...THAT WILL JUST BE GRAVY IN THE CONVECTION/PRECIP CHANCES.

THUS WILL TREND FOR POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS. AS FOR TEMPS...LITTLE
TO NO ADVECTION APPEARS IN PLACE AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN PRETTY
STEADY STATE. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. GFS AND
NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY BEGINS TO EDGE EAST
TONIGHT...PUSHING DYNAMICS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LINGERING DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE A CONTINUED FACTOR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION ALSO. THUS
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
THE CATEGORICAL POPS OF THE MAVMOS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN
AND WARM...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN
MAVMOS.

RAINS FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY APPEAR QUIET FAVORABLE ALSO. GFS AND
NAM SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA ON
SATURDAY PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOW
DEEP SATURATION...WITH CAPE AVAILABLE LOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...PROVIDING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
FINALLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING MORE
FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.70-1.80
INCHES. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON
SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
SATURDAY HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS AND STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS AS A NEW AIR MASS IN INTRODUCED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY SHOW SOME LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DRY OUT QUICKLY AS COLD FRONT SAG FARTHER SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT. FURTHERMORE...INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE
TROUGHING ALOFT APPEARS TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE COOLER AND DRIER...CONTINENTAL NORTHEAST FLOW TAKES
PLACE...PROVIDING FURTHER DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. THUS OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES LINGERING ON
SUNDAY MORNING...WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
COOLER NE FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL ALSO TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW
MAVMOS/MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS...WILL
CUTOFF DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES. RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CUTOFF ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL CARRY SOME
CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND KEEP THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA DRY.

APPEARS ENOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE MAY EVENTUALLY PUSH NORTH INTO THE
AREA AROUND UPPER LOW TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

EXCEPT FOR BRIEF AND LOCALIZED MVFR FOG NEAR DAYBREAK TODAY...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD. WINDS TO EXCEED 10 KTS BY 291600Z WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS TODAY NEAR 20KTS.

WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO INDIANA DURING DAYTIME TODAY
COMBINED WITH MAX HEATING AND HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD LEAD TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 291800Z AND CONTINUING INTO 300200Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...TUCEK/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 290821
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
419 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CHANGEABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND. WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON NORTHEAST
WINDS.

THROUGH THE NEXT WORK WEEK...SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER AS WARMER AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY RETURNS
AS THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BERMUDA HIGH WAS
IN PLACE PROVIDING AND EASTERLY FLOW TO SERN UNITED STATES AND A
WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
INDIANA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG WITH A COUPLE SHORT WAVE EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD AMID THE FLOW ALOFT. RADAR WAS QUIET AND DEW POINT
TEMPS WERE IN THE MOIST LOWER 60S.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE PUSHING NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF THE UPPER
SUPPORT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE LEADS TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD ANY UPPER SUPPORT
ARRIVE...THAT WILL JUST BE GRAVY IN THE CONVECTION/PRECIP CHANCES.

THUS WILL TREND FOR POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS. AS FOR TEMPS...LITTLE
TO NO ADVECTION APPEARS IN PLACE AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN PRETTY
STEADY STATE. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. GFS AND
NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY BEGINS TO EDGE EAST
TONIGHT...PUSHING DYNAMICS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LINGERING DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE A CONTINUED FACTOR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION ALSO. THUS
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
THE CATEGORICAL POPS OF THE MAVMOS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN
AND WARM...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN
MAVMOS.

RAINS FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY APPEAR QUIET FAVORABLE ALSO. GFS AND
NAM SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA ON
SATURDAY PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOW
DEEP SATURATION...WITH CAPE AVAILABLE LOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...PROVIDING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
FINALLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING MORE
FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.70-1.80
INCHES. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON
SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
SATURDAY HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS AND STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS AS A NEW AIR MASS IN INTRODUCED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY SHOW SOME LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DRY OUT QUICKLY AS COLD FRONT SAG FARTHER SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT. FURTHERMORE...INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE
TROUGHING ALOFT APPEARS TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE COOLER AND DRIER...CONTINENTAL NORTHEAST FLOW TAKES
PLACE...PROVIDING FURTHER DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. THUS OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES LINGERING ON
SUNDAY MORNING...WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
COOLER NE FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL ALSO TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW
MAVMOS/MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS...WILL
CUTOFF DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES. RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CUTOFF ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL CARRY SOME
CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND KEEP THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA DRY.

APPEARS ENOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE MAY EVENTUALLY PUSH NORTH INTO THE
AREA AROUND UPPER LOW TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

EXCEPT FOR BRIEF AND LOCALIZED MVFR FOG NEAR DAYBREAK TODAY...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD. WINDS TO EXCEED 10 KTS BY 291600Z WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS TODAY NEAR 20KTS.

WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO INDIANA DURING DAYTIME TODAY
COMBINED WITH MAX HEATING AND HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD LEAD TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 291800Z AND CONTINUING INTO 300200Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...TUCEK/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 290646
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
246 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CHANGEABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND. WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON NORTHEAST
WINDS.

THROUGH THE NEXT WORK WEEK...SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER AS WARMER AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY RETURNS
AS THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BERMUDA HIGH WAS
IN PLACE PROVIDING AND EASTERLY FLOW TO SERN UNITED STATES AND A
WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
INDIANA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG WITH A COUPLE SHORT WAVE EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD AMID THE FLOW ALOFT. RADAR WAS QUIET AND DEW POINT
TEMPS WERE IN THE MOIST LOWER 60S.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE PUSHING NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF THE UPPER
SUPPORT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE LEADS TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD ANY UPPER SUPPORT
ARRIVE...THAT WILL JUST BE GRAVY IN THE CONVECTION/PRECIP CHANCES.

THUS WILL TREND FOR POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS. AS FOR TEMPS...LITTLE
TO NO ADVECTION APPEARS IN PLACE AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN PRETTY
STEADY STATE. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. GFS AND
NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY BEGINS TO EDGE EAST
TONIGHT...PUSHING DYNAMICS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LINGERING DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE A CONTINUED FACTOR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION ALSO. THUS
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
THE CATEGORICAL POPS OF THE MAVMOS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN
AND WARM...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN
MAVMOS.

RAINS FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY APPEAR QUIET FAVORABLE ALSO. GFS AND
NAM SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA ON
SATURDAY PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOW
DEEP SATURATION...WITH CAPE AVAILABLE LOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...PROVIDING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
FINALLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING MORE
FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.70-1.80
INCHES. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON
SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
SATURDAY HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS AND STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS AS A NEW AIR MASS IN INTRODUCED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY SHOW SOME LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DRY OUT QUICKLY AS COLD FRONT SAG FARTHER SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT. FURTHERMORE...INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE
TROUGHING ALOFT APPEARS TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE COOLER AND DRIER...CONTINENTAL NORTHEAST FLOW TAKES
PLACE...PROVIDING FURTHER DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. THUS OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES LINGERING ON
SUNDAY MORNING...WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
COOLER NE FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL ALSO TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW
MAVMOS/MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS...WILL
CUTOFF DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES. RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CUTOFF ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL CARRY SOME
CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND KEEP THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA DRY.

APPEARS ENOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE MAY EVENTUALLY PUSH NORTH INTO THE
AREA AROUND UPPER LOW TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1233 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

EXCEPT FOR BRIEF AND LOCALIZED MVFR FOG NEAR DAYBREAK TODAY...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD. WINDS TO EXCEED 10 KTS BY 291600Z WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS TODAY NEAR 20KTS.

WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO INDIANA DURING DAYTIME TODAY
COMBINED WITH MAX HEATING AND HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD LEAD TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 291800Z AND CONTINUING INTO 300200Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...TUCEK/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 290646
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
246 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CHANGEABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND. WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON NORTHEAST
WINDS.

THROUGH THE NEXT WORK WEEK...SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER AS WARMER AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY RETURNS
AS THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BERMUDA HIGH WAS
IN PLACE PROVIDING AND EASTERLY FLOW TO SERN UNITED STATES AND A
WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
INDIANA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG WITH A COUPLE SHORT WAVE EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD AMID THE FLOW ALOFT. RADAR WAS QUIET AND DEW POINT
TEMPS WERE IN THE MOIST LOWER 60S.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE PUSHING NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF THE UPPER
SUPPORT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE LEADS TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD ANY UPPER SUPPORT
ARRIVE...THAT WILL JUST BE GRAVY IN THE CONVECTION/PRECIP CHANCES.

THUS WILL TREND FOR POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS. AS FOR TEMPS...LITTLE
TO NO ADVECTION APPEARS IN PLACE AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN PRETTY
STEADY STATE. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. GFS AND
NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY BEGINS TO EDGE EAST
TONIGHT...PUSHING DYNAMICS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LINGERING DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE A CONTINUED FACTOR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION ALSO. THUS
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
THE CATEGORICAL POPS OF THE MAVMOS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN
AND WARM...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN
MAVMOS.

RAINS FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY APPEAR QUIET FAVORABLE ALSO. GFS AND
NAM SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA ON
SATURDAY PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOW
DEEP SATURATION...WITH CAPE AVAILABLE LOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...PROVIDING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
FINALLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING MORE
FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.70-1.80
INCHES. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON
SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
SATURDAY HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS AND STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS AS A NEW AIR MASS IN INTRODUCED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY SHOW SOME LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DRY OUT QUICKLY AS COLD FRONT SAG FARTHER SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT. FURTHERMORE...INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE
TROUGHING ALOFT APPEARS TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE COOLER AND DRIER...CONTINENTAL NORTHEAST FLOW TAKES
PLACE...PROVIDING FURTHER DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. THUS OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES LINGERING ON
SUNDAY MORNING...WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
COOLER NE FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL ALSO TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW
MAVMOS/MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS...WILL
CUTOFF DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES. RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CUTOFF ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL CARRY SOME
CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND KEEP THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA DRY.

APPEARS ENOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE MAY EVENTUALLY PUSH NORTH INTO THE
AREA AROUND UPPER LOW TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1233 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

EXCEPT FOR BRIEF AND LOCALIZED MVFR FOG NEAR DAYBREAK TODAY...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD. WINDS TO EXCEED 10 KTS BY 291600Z WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS TODAY NEAR 20KTS.

WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO INDIANA DURING DAYTIME TODAY
COMBINED WITH MAX HEATING AND HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD LEAD TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 291800Z AND CONTINUING INTO 300200Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...TUCEK/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 290646
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
246 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CHANGEABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND. WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON NORTHEAST
WINDS.

THROUGH THE NEXT WORK WEEK...SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER AS WARMER AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY RETURNS
AS THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BERMUDA HIGH WAS
IN PLACE PROVIDING AND EASTERLY FLOW TO SERN UNITED STATES AND A
WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
INDIANA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG WITH A COUPLE SHORT WAVE EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD AMID THE FLOW ALOFT. RADAR WAS QUIET AND DEW POINT
TEMPS WERE IN THE MOIST LOWER 60S.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE PUSHING NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF THE UPPER
SUPPORT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE LEADS TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD ANY UPPER SUPPORT
ARRIVE...THAT WILL JUST BE GRAVY IN THE CONVECTION/PRECIP CHANCES.

THUS WILL TREND FOR POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS. AS FOR TEMPS...LITTLE
TO NO ADVECTION APPEARS IN PLACE AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN PRETTY
STEADY STATE. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. GFS AND
NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY BEGINS TO EDGE EAST
TONIGHT...PUSHING DYNAMICS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LINGERING DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE A CONTINUED FACTOR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION ALSO. THUS
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
THE CATEGORICAL POPS OF THE MAVMOS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN
AND WARM...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN
MAVMOS.

RAINS FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY APPEAR QUIET FAVORABLE ALSO. GFS AND
NAM SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA ON
SATURDAY PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOW
DEEP SATURATION...WITH CAPE AVAILABLE LOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...PROVIDING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
FINALLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING MORE
FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.70-1.80
INCHES. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON
SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
SATURDAY HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS AND STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS AS A NEW AIR MASS IN INTRODUCED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY SHOW SOME LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DRY OUT QUICKLY AS COLD FRONT SAG FARTHER SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT. FURTHERMORE...INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE
TROUGHING ALOFT APPEARS TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE COOLER AND DRIER...CONTINENTAL NORTHEAST FLOW TAKES
PLACE...PROVIDING FURTHER DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. THUS OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES LINGERING ON
SUNDAY MORNING...WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
COOLER NE FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL ALSO TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW
MAVMOS/MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS...WILL
CUTOFF DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES. RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CUTOFF ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL CARRY SOME
CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND KEEP THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA DRY.

APPEARS ENOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE MAY EVENTUALLY PUSH NORTH INTO THE
AREA AROUND UPPER LOW TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1233 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

EXCEPT FOR BRIEF AND LOCALIZED MVFR FOG NEAR DAYBREAK TODAY...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD. WINDS TO EXCEED 10 KTS BY 291600Z WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS TODAY NEAR 20KTS.

WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO INDIANA DURING DAYTIME TODAY
COMBINED WITH MAX HEATING AND HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD LEAD TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 291800Z AND CONTINUING INTO 300200Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...TUCEK/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 290646
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
246 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CHANGEABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND. WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON NORTHEAST
WINDS.

THROUGH THE NEXT WORK WEEK...SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER AS WARMER AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY RETURNS
AS THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BERMUDA HIGH WAS
IN PLACE PROVIDING AND EASTERLY FLOW TO SERN UNITED STATES AND A
WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
INDIANA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG WITH A COUPLE SHORT WAVE EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD AMID THE FLOW ALOFT. RADAR WAS QUIET AND DEW POINT
TEMPS WERE IN THE MOIST LOWER 60S.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE PUSHING NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF THE UPPER
SUPPORT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE LEADS TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD ANY UPPER SUPPORT
ARRIVE...THAT WILL JUST BE GRAVY IN THE CONVECTION/PRECIP CHANCES.

THUS WILL TREND FOR POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS. AS FOR TEMPS...LITTLE
TO NO ADVECTION APPEARS IN PLACE AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN PRETTY
STEADY STATE. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. GFS AND
NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY BEGINS TO EDGE EAST
TONIGHT...PUSHING DYNAMICS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LINGERING DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE A CONTINUED FACTOR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION ALSO. THUS
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
THE CATEGORICAL POPS OF THE MAVMOS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN
AND WARM...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN
MAVMOS.

RAINS FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY APPEAR QUIET FAVORABLE ALSO. GFS AND
NAM SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA ON
SATURDAY PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOW
DEEP SATURATION...WITH CAPE AVAILABLE LOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...PROVIDING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
FINALLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING MORE
FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.70-1.80
INCHES. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON
SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
SATURDAY HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS AND STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS AS A NEW AIR MASS IN INTRODUCED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY SHOW SOME LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DRY OUT QUICKLY AS COLD FRONT SAG FARTHER SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT. FURTHERMORE...INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE
TROUGHING ALOFT APPEARS TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE COOLER AND DRIER...CONTINENTAL NORTHEAST FLOW TAKES
PLACE...PROVIDING FURTHER DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. THUS OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES LINGERING ON
SUNDAY MORNING...WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
COOLER NE FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL ALSO TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW
MAVMOS/MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS...WILL
CUTOFF DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES. RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CUTOFF ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL CARRY SOME
CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND KEEP THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA DRY.

APPEARS ENOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE MAY EVENTUALLY PUSH NORTH INTO THE
AREA AROUND UPPER LOW TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1233 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

EXCEPT FOR BRIEF AND LOCALIZED MVFR FOG NEAR DAYBREAK TODAY...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD. WINDS TO EXCEED 10 KTS BY 291600Z WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS TODAY NEAR 20KTS.

WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO INDIANA DURING DAYTIME TODAY
COMBINED WITH MAX HEATING AND HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD LEAD TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 291800Z AND CONTINUING INTO 300200Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...TUCEK/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 290435
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1233 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SATURDAY BEFORE MUCH COOLER
AIR ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AFTER HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE 60S.
MEANWHILE...THERE SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT TIMES NEXT WEEK AS
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

CU HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH SUNSET...LEAVING CIRRUS TO DRIFT
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREA OF MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. 0130Z
TEMPS WERE IN THE 70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. AREA OF SUBSIDENCE
NOTED ON WV SATELLITE SLOWLY LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AS DEEPER
MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND FROM AN
UPPER WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DEWPOINTS BEGINNING TO CREEP
BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 60S AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
OVERNIGHT...AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAY BE GRAZED BY CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVING UPPER WAVE. HI-RES GUIDANCE
GENERATING SOME CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE LATE AS IT LIFTS
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WESTERN OHIO...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

COULD SEE LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW. LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S STILL
LOOK REASONABLE.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS THEY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEY ALSO
BRING A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A
PLAINS TROUGH. WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THESE
SYNOPTIC FORCING FEATURES TO INTERACT WITH ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS TO 1.7 INCHES OR SO. THE RESULT WILL BE NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STARTING ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES AND
MOST QPF SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN 12Z MOS LIKELY TO CAT
POPS LOOK GOOD.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...MODELS MOVE THE PLAINS UPPER
TROUGH TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW THE COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS BRING IT SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH
AGAIN. THE 12Z GEM SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH IT FURTHER SOUTH
LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE. THE OTHERS
INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF...12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM ALL TAKE A MORE
NORTHERN APPROACH WITH QPF OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF. THIS MATCHES UP NICELY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS SOUTH TAPERING OFF
TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST.

WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM PER THE SPC
MARGINAL DAY2 RISK. HOWEVER...WEAK SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ANY SORT OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT EITHER DAY. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...CLOSER TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. ALSO...CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW ON SUNDAY
EXCEPT SOUTH PER INSTABILITY PROGS. THUS...WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN
ISOLATED REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS THEN.

12Z MOS TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CLOSE AND APPEAR REASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
SATURDAY. IF ANYTHING...MAY CUT A DEGREE OR TWO OFF WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND STORMS AROUND. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA...SHOULD SEE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH BLEND SUGGESTING
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE REGIONAL MODEL INITIALIZATION WILL BE USED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE GFS IS SAYING ABOUT WHAT IT DID YESTERDAY FOR NEXT WEEKS
FORECAST. THE LATEST EUROPEAN HAS NEARLY CONVERGED ON THIS. THE
CONVERGENCE IS PARTICULARLY EVIDENT IN THE HANDLING OF A TROUGH OVER
THE AREA THAT WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO OUR WEATHER.

THIS IS A STRONG INDICATION THE GFS HAS A GOOD GRIP ON WHAT WILL
HAPPEN. ADDITIONAL SUPPORTING EVIDENCE IS SMALL SPREAD BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1233 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

EXCEPT FOR BRIEF AND LOCALIZED MVFR FOG NEAR DAYBREAK TODAY...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD. WINDS TO EXCEED 10 KTS BY 291600Z WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS TODAY NEAR 20KTS.

WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO INDIANA DURING DAYTIME TODAY
COMBINED WITH MAX HEATING AND HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD LEAD TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 291800Z AND CONTINUING INTO 300200Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 290435
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1233 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SATURDAY BEFORE MUCH COOLER
AIR ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AFTER HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE 60S.
MEANWHILE...THERE SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT TIMES NEXT WEEK AS
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

CU HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH SUNSET...LEAVING CIRRUS TO DRIFT
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREA OF MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. 0130Z
TEMPS WERE IN THE 70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. AREA OF SUBSIDENCE
NOTED ON WV SATELLITE SLOWLY LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AS DEEPER
MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND FROM AN
UPPER WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DEWPOINTS BEGINNING TO CREEP
BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 60S AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
OVERNIGHT...AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAY BE GRAZED BY CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVING UPPER WAVE. HI-RES GUIDANCE
GENERATING SOME CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE LATE AS IT LIFTS
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WESTERN OHIO...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

COULD SEE LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW. LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S STILL
LOOK REASONABLE.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS THEY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEY ALSO
BRING A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A
PLAINS TROUGH. WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THESE
SYNOPTIC FORCING FEATURES TO INTERACT WITH ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS TO 1.7 INCHES OR SO. THE RESULT WILL BE NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STARTING ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES AND
MOST QPF SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN 12Z MOS LIKELY TO CAT
POPS LOOK GOOD.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...MODELS MOVE THE PLAINS UPPER
TROUGH TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW THE COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS BRING IT SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH
AGAIN. THE 12Z GEM SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH IT FURTHER SOUTH
LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE. THE OTHERS
INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF...12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM ALL TAKE A MORE
NORTHERN APPROACH WITH QPF OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF. THIS MATCHES UP NICELY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS SOUTH TAPERING OFF
TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST.

WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM PER THE SPC
MARGINAL DAY2 RISK. HOWEVER...WEAK SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ANY SORT OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT EITHER DAY. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...CLOSER TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. ALSO...CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW ON SUNDAY
EXCEPT SOUTH PER INSTABILITY PROGS. THUS...WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN
ISOLATED REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS THEN.

12Z MOS TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CLOSE AND APPEAR REASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
SATURDAY. IF ANYTHING...MAY CUT A DEGREE OR TWO OFF WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND STORMS AROUND. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA...SHOULD SEE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH BLEND SUGGESTING
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE REGIONAL MODEL INITIALIZATION WILL BE USED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE GFS IS SAYING ABOUT WHAT IT DID YESTERDAY FOR NEXT WEEKS
FORECAST. THE LATEST EUROPEAN HAS NEARLY CONVERGED ON THIS. THE
CONVERGENCE IS PARTICULARLY EVIDENT IN THE HANDLING OF A TROUGH OVER
THE AREA THAT WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO OUR WEATHER.

THIS IS A STRONG INDICATION THE GFS HAS A GOOD GRIP ON WHAT WILL
HAPPEN. ADDITIONAL SUPPORTING EVIDENCE IS SMALL SPREAD BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1233 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

EXCEPT FOR BRIEF AND LOCALIZED MVFR FOG NEAR DAYBREAK TODAY...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD. WINDS TO EXCEED 10 KTS BY 291600Z WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS TODAY NEAR 20KTS.

WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO INDIANA DURING DAYTIME TODAY
COMBINED WITH MAX HEATING AND HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD LEAD TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 291800Z AND CONTINUING INTO 300200Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 290242
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1042 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SATURDAY BEFORE MUCH COOLER
AIR ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AFTER HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE 60S.
MEANWHILE...THERE SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT TIMES NEXT WEEK AS
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

CU HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH SUNSET...LEAVING CIRRUS TO DRIFT
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREA OF MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. 0130Z
TEMPS WERE IN THE 70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. AREA OF SUBSIDENCE
NOTED ON WV SATELLITE SLOWLY LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AS DEEPER
MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND FROM AN
UPPER WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DEWPOINTS BEGINNING TO CREEP
BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 60S AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
OVERNIGHT...AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAY BE GRAZED BY CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVING UPPER WAVE. HI-RES GUIDANCE
GENERATING SOME CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE LATE AS IT LIFTS
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WESTERN OHIO...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

COULD SEE LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW. LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S STILL
LOOK REASONABLE.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS THEY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEY ALSO
BRING A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A
PLAINS TROUGH. WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THESE
SYNOPTIC FORCING FEATURES TO INTERACT WITH ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS TO 1.7 INCHES OR SO. THE RESULT WILL BE NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STARTING ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES AND
MOST QPF SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN 12Z MOS LIKELY TO CAT
POPS LOOK GOOD.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...MODELS MOVE THE PLAINS UPPER
TROUGH TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW THE COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS BRING IT SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH
AGAIN. THE 12Z GEM SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH IT FURTHER SOUTH
LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE. THE OTHERS
INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF...12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM ALL TAKE A MORE
NORTHERN APPROACH WITH QPF OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF. THIS MATCHES UP NICELY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS SOUTH TAPERING OFF
TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST.

WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM PER THE SPC
MARGINAL DAY2 RISK. HOWEVER...WEAK SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ANY SORT OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT EITHER DAY. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...CLOSER TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. ALSO...CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW ON SUNDAY
EXCEPT SOUTH PER INSTABILITY PROGS. THUS...WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN
ISOLATED REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS THEN.

12Z MOS TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CLOSE AND APPEAR REASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
SATURDAY. IF ANYTHING...MAY CUT A DEGREE OR TWO OFF WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND STORMS AROUND. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA...SHOULD SEE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH BLEND SUGGESTING
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE REGIONAL MODEL INITIALIZATION WILL BE USED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE GFS IS SAYING ABOUT WHAT IT DID YESTERDAY FOR NEXT WEEKS
FORECAST. THE LATEST EUROPEAN HAS NEARLY CONVERGED ON THIS. THE
CONVERGENCE IS PARTICULARLY EVIDENT IN THE HANDLING OF A TROUGH OVER
THE AREA THAT WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO OUR WEATHER.

THIS IS A STRONG INDICATION THE GFS HAS A GOOD GRIP ON WHAT WILL
HAPPEN. ADDITIONAL SUPPORTING EVIDENCE IS SMALL SPREAD BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE FOR 290000Z KIND TAF/...

ISSUED AT 1036 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. DROPPED CUMULUS UNTIL 291500Z. EXPECT
SCATTERED STORMS IN CENTRAL INDIANA BY 291800Z. SSW WIND ABOVE 10
KTS BY 291500Z WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS ABOVE 20KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 290242
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1042 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SATURDAY BEFORE MUCH COOLER
AIR ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AFTER HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE 60S.
MEANWHILE...THERE SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT TIMES NEXT WEEK AS
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

CU HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH SUNSET...LEAVING CIRRUS TO DRIFT
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREA OF MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. 0130Z
TEMPS WERE IN THE 70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. AREA OF SUBSIDENCE
NOTED ON WV SATELLITE SLOWLY LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AS DEEPER
MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND FROM AN
UPPER WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DEWPOINTS BEGINNING TO CREEP
BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 60S AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
OVERNIGHT...AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAY BE GRAZED BY CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVING UPPER WAVE. HI-RES GUIDANCE
GENERATING SOME CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE LATE AS IT LIFTS
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WESTERN OHIO...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

COULD SEE LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW. LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S STILL
LOOK REASONABLE.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS THEY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEY ALSO
BRING A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A
PLAINS TROUGH. WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THESE
SYNOPTIC FORCING FEATURES TO INTERACT WITH ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS TO 1.7 INCHES OR SO. THE RESULT WILL BE NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STARTING ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES AND
MOST QPF SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN 12Z MOS LIKELY TO CAT
POPS LOOK GOOD.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...MODELS MOVE THE PLAINS UPPER
TROUGH TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW THE COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS BRING IT SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH
AGAIN. THE 12Z GEM SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH IT FURTHER SOUTH
LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE. THE OTHERS
INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF...12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM ALL TAKE A MORE
NORTHERN APPROACH WITH QPF OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF. THIS MATCHES UP NICELY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS SOUTH TAPERING OFF
TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST.

WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM PER THE SPC
MARGINAL DAY2 RISK. HOWEVER...WEAK SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ANY SORT OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT EITHER DAY. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...CLOSER TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. ALSO...CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW ON SUNDAY
EXCEPT SOUTH PER INSTABILITY PROGS. THUS...WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN
ISOLATED REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS THEN.

12Z MOS TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CLOSE AND APPEAR REASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
SATURDAY. IF ANYTHING...MAY CUT A DEGREE OR TWO OFF WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND STORMS AROUND. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA...SHOULD SEE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH BLEND SUGGESTING
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE REGIONAL MODEL INITIALIZATION WILL BE USED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE GFS IS SAYING ABOUT WHAT IT DID YESTERDAY FOR NEXT WEEKS
FORECAST. THE LATEST EUROPEAN HAS NEARLY CONVERGED ON THIS. THE
CONVERGENCE IS PARTICULARLY EVIDENT IN THE HANDLING OF A TROUGH OVER
THE AREA THAT WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO OUR WEATHER.

THIS IS A STRONG INDICATION THE GFS HAS A GOOD GRIP ON WHAT WILL
HAPPEN. ADDITIONAL SUPPORTING EVIDENCE IS SMALL SPREAD BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE FOR 290000Z KIND TAF/...

ISSUED AT 1036 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. DROPPED CUMULUS UNTIL 291500Z. EXPECT
SCATTERED STORMS IN CENTRAL INDIANA BY 291800Z. SSW WIND ABOVE 10
KTS BY 291500Z WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS ABOVE 20KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 290149
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
949 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SATURDAY BEFORE MUCH COOLER
AIR ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AFTER HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE 60S.
MEANWHILE...THERE SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT TIMES NEXT WEEK AS
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

CU HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH SUNSET...LEAVING CIRRUS TO DRIFT
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREA OF MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. 0130Z
TEMPS WERE IN THE 70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. AREA OF SUBSIDENCE
NOTED ON WV SATELLITE SLOWLY LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST DEEPER
MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND FROM AN
UPPER WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DEWPOINTS BEGINNING TO CREEP
BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 60S AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH
THE NIGHT. CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
OVERNIGHT...AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAY BE GRAZED BY CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVING UPPER WAVE. HI-RES GUIDANCE
GENERATING SOME CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE LATE AS IT LIFTS
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WESTERN OHIO...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

COULD SEE LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW. LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S STILL
LOOK REASONABLE.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS THEY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEY ALSO
BRING A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A
PLAINS TROUGH. WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THESE
SYNOPTIC FORCING FEATURES TO INTERACT WITH ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS TO 1.7 INCHES OR SO. THE RESULT WILL BE NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STARTING ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES AND
MOST QPF SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN 12Z MOS LIKELY TO CAT
POPS LOOK GOOD.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...MODELS MOVE THE PLAINS UPPER
TROUGH TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW THE COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS BRING IT SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH
AGAIN. THE 12Z GEM SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH IT FURTHER SOUTH
LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE. THE OTHERS
INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF...12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM ALL TAKE A MORE
NORTHERN APPROACH WITH QPF OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF. THIS MATCHES UP NICELY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS SOUTH TAPERING OFF
TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST.

WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM PER THE SPC
MARGINAL DAY2 RISK. HOWEVER...WEAK SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ANY SORT OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT EITHER DAY. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...CLOSER TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. ALSO...CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW ON SUNDAY
EXCEPT SOUTH PER INSTABILITY PROGS. THUS...WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN
ISOLATED REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS THEN.

12Z MOS TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CLOSE AND APPEAR REASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
SATURDAY. IF ANYTHING...MAY CUT A DEGREE OR TWO OFF WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND STORMS AROUND. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA...SHOULD SEE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH BLEND SUGGESTING
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE REGIONAL MODEL INITIALIZATION WILL BE USED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE GFS IS SAYING ABOUT WHAT IT DID YESTERDAY FOR NEXT WEEKS
FORECAST. THE LATEST EUROPEAN HAS NEARLY CONVERGED ON THIS. THE
CONVERGENCE IS PARTICULARLY EVIDENT IN THE HANDLING OF A TROUGH OVER
THE AREA THAT WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO OUR WEATHER.

THIS IS A STRONG INDICATION THE GFS HAS A GOOD GRIP ON WHAT WILL
HAPPEN. ADDITIONAL SUPPORTING EVIDENCE IS SMALL SPREAD BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

QUIET NIGHT AS DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATE. SOME LOCALIZED MVFR VSBY
FROM MAY OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK. DAMPENING UPPER TROUGH FIRING
MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL COME INTO PLAY
ACROSS INDIANA FRIDAY ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL HEATING. EXPECT
RETURN OF DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE TO BRING CUMULUS FORMATION
EARLIER IN THE MORNING...301300Z-301500Z...WITH MORE COVERAGE AND
WITH DEVELOPMENT INTO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS LIE DOWN OVERNIGHT BUT WITH APPROACHING WEAK UPPER TROUGH
WINDS FRIDAY WILL EXCEED 10KTS BY 301600Z AND GUST TO 20 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

CLOUD DECKS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR DURING
ANY THUNDERSTORM CORE PASSAGE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 290149
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
949 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SATURDAY BEFORE MUCH COOLER
AIR ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AFTER HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE 60S.
MEANWHILE...THERE SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT TIMES NEXT WEEK AS
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

CU HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH SUNSET...LEAVING CIRRUS TO DRIFT
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREA OF MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. 0130Z
TEMPS WERE IN THE 70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. AREA OF SUBSIDENCE
NOTED ON WV SATELLITE SLOWLY LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST DEEPER
MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND FROM AN
UPPER WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DEWPOINTS BEGINNING TO CREEP
BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 60S AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH
THE NIGHT. CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
OVERNIGHT...AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAY BE GRAZED BY CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVING UPPER WAVE. HI-RES GUIDANCE
GENERATING SOME CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE LATE AS IT LIFTS
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WESTERN OHIO...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

COULD SEE LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW. LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S STILL
LOOK REASONABLE.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS THEY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEY ALSO
BRING A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A
PLAINS TROUGH. WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THESE
SYNOPTIC FORCING FEATURES TO INTERACT WITH ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS TO 1.7 INCHES OR SO. THE RESULT WILL BE NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STARTING ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES AND
MOST QPF SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN 12Z MOS LIKELY TO CAT
POPS LOOK GOOD.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...MODELS MOVE THE PLAINS UPPER
TROUGH TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW THE COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS BRING IT SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH
AGAIN. THE 12Z GEM SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH IT FURTHER SOUTH
LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE. THE OTHERS
INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF...12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM ALL TAKE A MORE
NORTHERN APPROACH WITH QPF OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF. THIS MATCHES UP NICELY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS SOUTH TAPERING OFF
TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST.

WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM PER THE SPC
MARGINAL DAY2 RISK. HOWEVER...WEAK SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ANY SORT OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT EITHER DAY. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...CLOSER TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. ALSO...CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW ON SUNDAY
EXCEPT SOUTH PER INSTABILITY PROGS. THUS...WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN
ISOLATED REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS THEN.

12Z MOS TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CLOSE AND APPEAR REASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
SATURDAY. IF ANYTHING...MAY CUT A DEGREE OR TWO OFF WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND STORMS AROUND. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA...SHOULD SEE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH BLEND SUGGESTING
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE REGIONAL MODEL INITIALIZATION WILL BE USED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE GFS IS SAYING ABOUT WHAT IT DID YESTERDAY FOR NEXT WEEKS
FORECAST. THE LATEST EUROPEAN HAS NEARLY CONVERGED ON THIS. THE
CONVERGENCE IS PARTICULARLY EVIDENT IN THE HANDLING OF A TROUGH OVER
THE AREA THAT WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO OUR WEATHER.

THIS IS A STRONG INDICATION THE GFS HAS A GOOD GRIP ON WHAT WILL
HAPPEN. ADDITIONAL SUPPORTING EVIDENCE IS SMALL SPREAD BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

QUIET NIGHT AS DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATE. SOME LOCALIZED MVFR VSBY
FROM MAY OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK. DAMPENING UPPER TROUGH FIRING
MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL COME INTO PLAY
ACROSS INDIANA FRIDAY ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL HEATING. EXPECT
RETURN OF DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE TO BRING CUMULUS FORMATION
EARLIER IN THE MORNING...301300Z-301500Z...WITH MORE COVERAGE AND
WITH DEVELOPMENT INTO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS LIE DOWN OVERNIGHT BUT WITH APPROACHING WEAK UPPER TROUGH
WINDS FRIDAY WILL EXCEED 10KTS BY 301600Z AND GUST TO 20 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

CLOUD DECKS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR DURING
ANY THUNDERSTORM CORE PASSAGE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 290149
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
949 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SATURDAY BEFORE MUCH COOLER
AIR ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AFTER HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE 60S.
MEANWHILE...THERE SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT TIMES NEXT WEEK AS
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

CU HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH SUNSET...LEAVING CIRRUS TO DRIFT
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREA OF MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. 0130Z
TEMPS WERE IN THE 70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. AREA OF SUBSIDENCE
NOTED ON WV SATELLITE SLOWLY LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AS DEEPER
MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND FROM AN
UPPER WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DEWPOINTS BEGINNING TO CREEP
BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 60S AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
OVERNIGHT...AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAY BE GRAZED BY CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVING UPPER WAVE. HI-RES GUIDANCE
GENERATING SOME CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE LATE AS IT LIFTS
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WESTERN OHIO...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

COULD SEE LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW. LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S STILL
LOOK REASONABLE.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS THEY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEY ALSO
BRING A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A
PLAINS TROUGH. WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THESE
SYNOPTIC FORCING FEATURES TO INTERACT WITH ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS TO 1.7 INCHES OR SO. THE RESULT WILL BE NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STARTING ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES AND
MOST QPF SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN 12Z MOS LIKELY TO CAT
POPS LOOK GOOD.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...MODELS MOVE THE PLAINS UPPER
TROUGH TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW THE COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS BRING IT SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH
AGAIN. THE 12Z GEM SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH IT FURTHER SOUTH
LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE. THE OTHERS
INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF...12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM ALL TAKE A MORE
NORTHERN APPROACH WITH QPF OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF. THIS MATCHES UP NICELY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS SOUTH TAPERING OFF
TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST.

WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM PER THE SPC
MARGINAL DAY2 RISK. HOWEVER...WEAK SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ANY SORT OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT EITHER DAY. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...CLOSER TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. ALSO...CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW ON SUNDAY
EXCEPT SOUTH PER INSTABILITY PROGS. THUS...WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN
ISOLATED REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS THEN.

12Z MOS TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CLOSE AND APPEAR REASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
SATURDAY. IF ANYTHING...MAY CUT A DEGREE OR TWO OFF WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND STORMS AROUND. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA...SHOULD SEE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH BLEND SUGGESTING
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE REGIONAL MODEL INITIALIZATION WILL BE USED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE GFS IS SAYING ABOUT WHAT IT DID YESTERDAY FOR NEXT WEEKS
FORECAST. THE LATEST EUROPEAN HAS NEARLY CONVERGED ON THIS. THE
CONVERGENCE IS PARTICULARLY EVIDENT IN THE HANDLING OF A TROUGH OVER
THE AREA THAT WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO OUR WEATHER.

THIS IS A STRONG INDICATION THE GFS HAS A GOOD GRIP ON WHAT WILL
HAPPEN. ADDITIONAL SUPPORTING EVIDENCE IS SMALL SPREAD BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

QUIET NIGHT AS DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATE. SOME LOCALIZED MVFR VSBY
FROM MAY OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK. DAMPENING UPPER TROUGH FIRING
MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL COME INTO PLAY
ACROSS INDIANA FRIDAY ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL HEATING. EXPECT
RETURN OF DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE TO BRING CUMULUS FORMATION
EARLIER IN THE MORNING...301300Z-301500Z...WITH MORE COVERAGE AND
WITH DEVELOPMENT INTO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS LIE DOWN OVERNIGHT BUT WITH APPROACHING WEAK UPPER TROUGH
WINDS FRIDAY WILL EXCEED 10KTS BY 301600Z AND GUST TO 20 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

CLOUD DECKS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR DURING
ANY THUNDERSTORM CORE PASSAGE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 290149
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
949 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SATURDAY BEFORE MUCH COOLER
AIR ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AFTER HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE 60S.
MEANWHILE...THERE SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT TIMES NEXT WEEK AS
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

CU HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH SUNSET...LEAVING CIRRUS TO DRIFT
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREA OF MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. 0130Z
TEMPS WERE IN THE 70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. AREA OF SUBSIDENCE
NOTED ON WV SATELLITE SLOWLY LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AS DEEPER
MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND FROM AN
UPPER WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DEWPOINTS BEGINNING TO CREEP
BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 60S AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
OVERNIGHT...AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAY BE GRAZED BY CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVING UPPER WAVE. HI-RES GUIDANCE
GENERATING SOME CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE LATE AS IT LIFTS
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WESTERN OHIO...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

COULD SEE LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW. LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S STILL
LOOK REASONABLE.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS THEY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEY ALSO
BRING A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A
PLAINS TROUGH. WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THESE
SYNOPTIC FORCING FEATURES TO INTERACT WITH ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS TO 1.7 INCHES OR SO. THE RESULT WILL BE NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STARTING ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES AND
MOST QPF SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN 12Z MOS LIKELY TO CAT
POPS LOOK GOOD.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...MODELS MOVE THE PLAINS UPPER
TROUGH TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW THE COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS BRING IT SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH
AGAIN. THE 12Z GEM SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH IT FURTHER SOUTH
LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE. THE OTHERS
INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF...12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM ALL TAKE A MORE
NORTHERN APPROACH WITH QPF OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF. THIS MATCHES UP NICELY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS SOUTH TAPERING OFF
TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST.

WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM PER THE SPC
MARGINAL DAY2 RISK. HOWEVER...WEAK SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ANY SORT OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT EITHER DAY. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...CLOSER TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. ALSO...CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW ON SUNDAY
EXCEPT SOUTH PER INSTABILITY PROGS. THUS...WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN
ISOLATED REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS THEN.

12Z MOS TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CLOSE AND APPEAR REASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
SATURDAY. IF ANYTHING...MAY CUT A DEGREE OR TWO OFF WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND STORMS AROUND. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA...SHOULD SEE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH BLEND SUGGESTING
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE REGIONAL MODEL INITIALIZATION WILL BE USED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE GFS IS SAYING ABOUT WHAT IT DID YESTERDAY FOR NEXT WEEKS
FORECAST. THE LATEST EUROPEAN HAS NEARLY CONVERGED ON THIS. THE
CONVERGENCE IS PARTICULARLY EVIDENT IN THE HANDLING OF A TROUGH OVER
THE AREA THAT WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO OUR WEATHER.

THIS IS A STRONG INDICATION THE GFS HAS A GOOD GRIP ON WHAT WILL
HAPPEN. ADDITIONAL SUPPORTING EVIDENCE IS SMALL SPREAD BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

QUIET NIGHT AS DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATE. SOME LOCALIZED MVFR VSBY
FROM MAY OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK. DAMPENING UPPER TROUGH FIRING
MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL COME INTO PLAY
ACROSS INDIANA FRIDAY ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL HEATING. EXPECT
RETURN OF DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE TO BRING CUMULUS FORMATION
EARLIER IN THE MORNING...301300Z-301500Z...WITH MORE COVERAGE AND
WITH DEVELOPMENT INTO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS LIE DOWN OVERNIGHT BUT WITH APPROACHING WEAK UPPER TROUGH
WINDS FRIDAY WILL EXCEED 10KTS BY 301600Z AND GUST TO 20 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

CLOUD DECKS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR DURING
ANY THUNDERSTORM CORE PASSAGE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 282319
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
719 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SATURDAY BEFORE MUCH COOLER
AIR ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AFTER HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE 60S.
MEANWHILE...THERE SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT TIMES NEXT WEEK AS
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT TO INTRODUCE POPS. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN WEAK UPPER RIDGE...CURRENTLY OVER THE
AREA...WILL MIGRATE EAST TO THE APPALACHIANS AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA.
SOUTHERLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF
FRONTAL FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

ALL THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE 15Z HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH
SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTION AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CLOSER TO THE DEW POINT BOUNDARY. THE
12Z NAM MOS HAS MOSTLY 30-40% POPS...WHILE THE 12Z GFS MOS IS CLOSER
TO 10%. THE NAM MOS SEEMS TO OVERDO DEW POINTS A TAD AND
CONSEQUENTLY INSTABILITY. WITH MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...UNLESS WE SEE
SOME CONVECTION IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
ISSUANCE...PREFER THE SLIGHTLY DRIER GFS MOS AND THUS WILL KEEP IT
DRY TONIGHT WITH POPS APPROACHING 15%.

SHOULD SEE SOME CU AROUND TONIGHT PER MODEL TIME SECTIONS...BUT
PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD DO. MOS TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TONIGHT AND
MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE WITH CLOUD COVER AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE CONSIDERATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS THEY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEY ALSO
BRING A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A
PLAINS TROUGH. WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THESE
SYNOPTIC FORCING FEATURES TO INTERACT WITH ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS TO 1.7 INCHES OR SO. THE RESULT WILL BE NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STARTING ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES AND
MOST QPF SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN 12Z MOS LIKELY TO CAT
POPS LOOK GOOD.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...MODELS MOVE THE PLAINS UPPER
TROUGH TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW THE COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS BRING IT SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH
AGAIN. THE 12Z GEM SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH IT FURTHER SOUTH
LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE. THE OTHERS
INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF...12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM ALL TAKE A MORE
NORTHERN APPROACH WITH QPF OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF. THIS MATCHES UP NICELY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS SOUTH TAPERING OFF
TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST.

WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM PER THE SPC
MARGINAL DAY2 RISK. HOWEVER...WEAK SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ANY SORT OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT EITHER DAY. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...CLOSER TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. ALSO...CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW ON SUNDAY
EXCEPT SOUTH PER INSTABILITY PROGS. THUS...WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN
ISOLATED REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS THEN.

12Z MOS TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CLOSE AND APPEAR REASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
SATURDAY. IF ANYTHING...MAY CUT A DEGREE OR TWO OFF WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND STORMS AROUND. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA...SHOULD SEE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH BLEND SUGGESTING
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE REGIONAL MODEL INITIALIZATION WILL BE USED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE GFS IS SAYING ABOUT WHAT IT DID YESTERDAY FOR NEXT WEEKS
FORECAST. THE LATEST EUROPEAN HAS NEARLY CONVERGED ON THIS. THE
CONVERGENCE IS PARTICULARLY EVIDENT IN THE HANDLING OF A TROUGH OVER
THE AREA THAT WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO OUR WEATHER.

THIS IS A STRONG INDICATION THE GFS HAS A GOOD GRIP ON WHAT WILL
HAPPEN. ADDITIONAL SUPPORTING EVIDENCE IS SMALL SPREAD BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

QUIET NIGHT AS DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATE. SOME LOCALIZED MVFR VSBY
FROM MAY OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK. DAMPENING UPPER TROUGH FIRING
MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL COME INTO PLAY
ACROSS INDIANA FRIDAY ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL HEATING. EXPECT
RETURN OF DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE TO BRING CUMULUS FORMATION
EARLIER IN THE MORNING...301300Z-301500Z...WITH MORE COVERAGE AND
WITH DEVELOPMENT INTO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS LIE DOWN OVERNIGHT BUT WITH APPROACHING WEAK UPPER TROUGH
WINDS FRIDAY WILL EXCEED 10KTS BY 301600Z AND GUST TO 20 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

CLOUD DECKS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR DURING
ANY THUNDERSTORM CORE PASSAGE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 282319
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
719 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SATURDAY BEFORE MUCH COOLER
AIR ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AFTER HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE 60S.
MEANWHILE...THERE SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT TIMES NEXT WEEK AS
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT TO INTRODUCE POPS. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN WEAK UPPER RIDGE...CURRENTLY OVER THE
AREA...WILL MIGRATE EAST TO THE APPALACHIANS AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA.
SOUTHERLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF
FRONTAL FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

ALL THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE 15Z HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH
SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTION AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CLOSER TO THE DEW POINT BOUNDARY. THE
12Z NAM MOS HAS MOSTLY 30-40% POPS...WHILE THE 12Z GFS MOS IS CLOSER
TO 10%. THE NAM MOS SEEMS TO OVERDO DEW POINTS A TAD AND
CONSEQUENTLY INSTABILITY. WITH MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...UNLESS WE SEE
SOME CONVECTION IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
ISSUANCE...PREFER THE SLIGHTLY DRIER GFS MOS AND THUS WILL KEEP IT
DRY TONIGHT WITH POPS APPROACHING 15%.

SHOULD SEE SOME CU AROUND TONIGHT PER MODEL TIME SECTIONS...BUT
PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD DO. MOS TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TONIGHT AND
MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE WITH CLOUD COVER AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE CONSIDERATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS THEY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEY ALSO
BRING A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A
PLAINS TROUGH. WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THESE
SYNOPTIC FORCING FEATURES TO INTERACT WITH ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS TO 1.7 INCHES OR SO. THE RESULT WILL BE NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STARTING ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES AND
MOST QPF SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN 12Z MOS LIKELY TO CAT
POPS LOOK GOOD.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...MODELS MOVE THE PLAINS UPPER
TROUGH TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW THE COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS BRING IT SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH
AGAIN. THE 12Z GEM SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH IT FURTHER SOUTH
LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE. THE OTHERS
INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF...12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM ALL TAKE A MORE
NORTHERN APPROACH WITH QPF OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF. THIS MATCHES UP NICELY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS SOUTH TAPERING OFF
TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST.

WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM PER THE SPC
MARGINAL DAY2 RISK. HOWEVER...WEAK SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ANY SORT OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT EITHER DAY. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...CLOSER TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. ALSO...CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW ON SUNDAY
EXCEPT SOUTH PER INSTABILITY PROGS. THUS...WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN
ISOLATED REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS THEN.

12Z MOS TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CLOSE AND APPEAR REASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
SATURDAY. IF ANYTHING...MAY CUT A DEGREE OR TWO OFF WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND STORMS AROUND. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA...SHOULD SEE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH BLEND SUGGESTING
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE REGIONAL MODEL INITIALIZATION WILL BE USED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE GFS IS SAYING ABOUT WHAT IT DID YESTERDAY FOR NEXT WEEKS
FORECAST. THE LATEST EUROPEAN HAS NEARLY CONVERGED ON THIS. THE
CONVERGENCE IS PARTICULARLY EVIDENT IN THE HANDLING OF A TROUGH OVER
THE AREA THAT WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO OUR WEATHER.

THIS IS A STRONG INDICATION THE GFS HAS A GOOD GRIP ON WHAT WILL
HAPPEN. ADDITIONAL SUPPORTING EVIDENCE IS SMALL SPREAD BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

QUIET NIGHT AS DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATE. SOME LOCALIZED MVFR VSBY
FROM MAY OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK. DAMPENING UPPER TROUGH FIRING
MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL COME INTO PLAY
ACROSS INDIANA FRIDAY ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL HEATING. EXPECT
RETURN OF DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE TO BRING CUMULUS FORMATION
EARLIER IN THE MORNING...301300Z-301500Z...WITH MORE COVERAGE AND
WITH DEVELOPMENT INTO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS LIE DOWN OVERNIGHT BUT WITH APPROACHING WEAK UPPER TROUGH
WINDS FRIDAY WILL EXCEED 10KTS BY 301600Z AND GUST TO 20 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

CLOUD DECKS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR DURING
ANY THUNDERSTORM CORE PASSAGE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 282039
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
439 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SATURDAY BEFORE MUCH COOLER
AIR ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AFTER HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE 60S.
MEANWHILE...THERE SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT TIMES NEXT WEEK AS
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT TO INTRODUCE POPS. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN WEAK UPPER RIDGE...CURRENTLY OVER THE
AREA...WILL MIGRATE EAST TO THE APPALACHIANS AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA.
SOUTHERLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF
FRONTAL FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

ALL THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE 15Z HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH
SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTION AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CLOSER TO THE DEW POINT BOUNDARY. THE
12Z NAM MOS HAS MOSTLY 30-40% POPS...WHILE THE 12Z GFS MOS IS CLOSER
TO 10%. THE NAM MOS SEEMS TO OVERDO DEW POINTS A TAD AND
CONSEQUENTLY INSTABILITY. WITH MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...UNLESS WE SEE
SOME CONVECTION IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
ISSUANCE...PREFER THE SLIGHTLY DRIER GFS MOS AND THUS WILL KEEP IT
DRY TONIGHT WITH POPS APPROACHING 15%.

SHOULD SEE SOME CU AROUND TONIGHT PER MODEL TIME SECTIONS...BUT
PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD DO. MOS TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TONIGHT AND
MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE WITH CLOUD COVER AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE CONSIDERATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS THEY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEY ALSO
BRING A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A
PLAINS TROUGH. WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THESE
SYNOPTIC FORCING FEATURES TO INTERACT WITH ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS TO 1.7 INCHES OR SO. THE RESULT WILL BE NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STARTING ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES AND
MOST QPF SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN 12Z MOS LIKELY TO CAT
POPS LOOK GOOD.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...MODELS MOVE THE PLAINS UPPER
TROUGH TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW THE COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS BRING IT SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH
AGAIN. THE 12Z GEM SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH IT FURTHER SOUTH
LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE. THE OTHERS
INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF...12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM ALL TAKE A MORE
NORTHERN APPROACH WITH QPF OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF. THIS MATCHES UP NICELY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS SOUTH TAPERING OFF
TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST.

WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM PER THE SPC
MARGINAL DAY2 RISK. HOWEVER...WEAK SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ANY SORT OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT EITHER DAY. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...CLOSER TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. ALSO...CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW ON SUNDAY
EXCEPT SOUTH PER INSTABILITY PROGS. THUS...WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN
ISOLATED REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS THEN.

12Z MOS TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CLOSE AND APPEAR REASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
SATURDAY. IF ANYTHING...MAY CUT A DEGREE OR TWO OFF WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND STORMS AROUND. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA...SHOULD SEE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH BLEND SUGGESTING
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE REGIONAL MODEL INITIALIZATION WILL BE USED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE GFS IS SAYING ABOUT WHAT IT DID YESTERDAY FOR NEXT WEEKS
FORECAST. THE LATEST EUROPEAN HAS NEARLY CONVERGED ON THIS. THE
CONVERGENCE IS PARTICULARLY EVIDENT IN THE HANDLING OF A TROUGH OVER
THE AREA THAT WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO OUR WEATHER.

THIS IS A STRONG INDICATION THE GFS HAS A GOOD GRIP ON WHAT WILL
HAPPEN. ADDITIONAL SUPPORTING EVIDENCE IS SMALL SPREAD BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE FOR 281800Z KIND TAF/...

ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH LATE
MORNING TOMORROW.

DIURNAL CUMULUS AROUND 5500 FEET HAVE FORMED AND THESE WILL
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN VICINITY IS PUSHING
NORTH AND SURFACE WINDS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY ALONG
WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING TO CLIMB A LITTLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1800Z...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE PRECISE
WITH THEIR FORECAST. FOR NOW VCTS WILL BE USED AFTER 18Z AT IND.

VISIBILITIES WILL STAY P6SM MOST OF THE TIME...BUT MAY LOCALLY BE
MVFR IN FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

WINDS ARE GOING TO BE LESS THAN KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN
BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS FRIDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 281819
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SATURDAY BEFORE MUCH COOLER
AIR ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AFTER HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE 60S.
MEANWHILE...THERE SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT TIMES NEXT WEEK AS
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT TO INTRODUCE POPS. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN WEAK UPPER RIDGE...CURRENTLY OVER THE
AREA...WILL MIGRATE EAST TO THE APPALACHIANS AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA.
SOUTHERLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF
FRONTAL FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

ALL THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE 15Z HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH
SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTION AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CLOSER TO THE DEW POINT BOUNDARY. THE
12Z NAM MOS HAS MOSTLY 30-40% POPS...WHILE THE 12Z GFS MOS IS CLOSER
TO 10%. THE NAM MOS SEEMS TO OVERDO DEW POINTS A TAD AND
CONSEQUENTLY INSTABILITY. WITH MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...UNLESS WE SEE
SOME CONVECTION IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
ISSUANCE...PREFER THE SLIGHTLY DRIER GFS MOS AND THUS WILL KEEP IT
DRY TONIGHT WITH POPS APPROACHING 15%.

SHOULD SEE SOME CU AROUND TONIGHT PER MODEL TIME SECTIONS...BUT
PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD DO. MOS TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TONIGHT AND
MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE WITH CLOUD COVER AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE CONSIDERATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS THEY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEY ALSO
BRING A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A
PLAINS TROUGH. WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THESE
SYNOPTIC FORCING FEATURES TO INTERACT WITH ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS TO 1.7 INCHES OR SO. THE RESULT WILL BE NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STARTING ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES AND
MOST QPF SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN 12Z MOS LIKELY TO CAT
POPS LOOK GOOD.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...MODELS MOVE THE PLAINS UPPER
TROUGH TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW THE COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS BRING IT SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH
AGAIN. THE 12Z GEM SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH IT FURTHER SOUTH
LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE. THE OTHERS
INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF...12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM ALL TAKE A MORE
NORTHERN APPROACH WITH QPF OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF. THIS MATCHES UP NICELY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS SOUTH TAPERING OFF
TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST.

WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM PER THE SPC
MARGINAL DAY2 RISK. HOWEVER...WEAK SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ANY SORT OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT EITHER DAY. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...CLOSER TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. ALSO...CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW ON SUNDAY
EXCEPT SOUTH PER INSTABILITY PROGS. THUS...WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN
ISOLATED REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS THEN.

12Z MOS TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CLOSE AND APPEAR REASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
SATURDAY. IF ANYTHING...MAY CUT A DEGREE OR TWO OFF WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND STORMS AROUND. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA...SHOULD SEE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH BLEND SUGGESTING
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE REGIONAL MODEL INITIALIZATION WILL BE USED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE GFS IS SAYING ABOUT WHAT IT DID YESTERDAY FOR NEXT WEEKS
FORECAST. THE LATEST EUROPEAN HAS NEARLY CONVERGED ON THIS. THE
CONVERGENCE IS PARTICULARLY EVIDENT IN THE HANDLING OF A TROUGH OVER
THE AREA THAT WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO OUR WEATHER.

THIS IS A STRONG INDICATION THE GFS HAS A GOOD GRIP ON WHAT WILL
HAPPEN. ADDITIONAL SUPPORTING EVIDENCE IS SMALL SPREAD BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY CLOUDS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY. THEN AN INFLUX OF MOIST AIR AHEAD OF A FRONT COMING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE CEILINGS OF 35 TO 45 HUNDRED FEET.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.IT
IS TOO EARLY TO BE PRECISE WITH THEIR FORECAST. FOR NOW VCTS WILL
BE USED AFTER 18Z AT IND.

VISIBILITIES WILL STAY P6SM MOST OF THE TIME...BUT MAY LOCALLY BE
MVFR IN FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

WINDS ARE GOING TO BE LESS THAN KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN
BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS FRIDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 281819
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SATURDAY BEFORE MUCH COOLER
AIR ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AFTER HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE 60S.
MEANWHILE...THERE SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT TIMES NEXT WEEK AS
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT TO INTRODUCE POPS. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN WEAK UPPER RIDGE...CURRENTLY OVER THE
AREA...WILL MIGRATE EAST TO THE APPALACHIANS AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA.
SOUTHERLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF
FRONTAL FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

ALL THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE 15Z HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH
SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTION AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CLOSER TO THE DEW POINT BOUNDARY. THE
12Z NAM MOS HAS MOSTLY 30-40% POPS...WHILE THE 12Z GFS MOS IS CLOSER
TO 10%. THE NAM MOS SEEMS TO OVERDO DEW POINTS A TAD AND
CONSEQUENTLY INSTABILITY. WITH MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...UNLESS WE SEE
SOME CONVECTION IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
ISSUANCE...PREFER THE SLIGHTLY DRIER GFS MOS AND THUS WILL KEEP IT
DRY TONIGHT WITH POPS APPROACHING 15%.

SHOULD SEE SOME CU AROUND TONIGHT PER MODEL TIME SECTIONS...BUT
PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD DO. MOS TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TONIGHT AND
MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE WITH CLOUD COVER AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE CONSIDERATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS THEY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEY ALSO
BRING A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A
PLAINS TROUGH. WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THESE
SYNOPTIC FORCING FEATURES TO INTERACT WITH ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS TO 1.7 INCHES OR SO. THE RESULT WILL BE NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STARTING ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES AND
MOST QPF SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN 12Z MOS LIKELY TO CAT
POPS LOOK GOOD.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...MODELS MOVE THE PLAINS UPPER
TROUGH TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW THE COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS BRING IT SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH
AGAIN. THE 12Z GEM SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH IT FURTHER SOUTH
LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE. THE OTHERS
INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF...12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM ALL TAKE A MORE
NORTHERN APPROACH WITH QPF OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF. THIS MATCHES UP NICELY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS SOUTH TAPERING OFF
TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST.

WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM PER THE SPC
MARGINAL DAY2 RISK. HOWEVER...WEAK SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ANY SORT OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT EITHER DAY. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...CLOSER TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. ALSO...CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW ON SUNDAY
EXCEPT SOUTH PER INSTABILITY PROGS. THUS...WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN
ISOLATED REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS THEN.

12Z MOS TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CLOSE AND APPEAR REASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
SATURDAY. IF ANYTHING...MAY CUT A DEGREE OR TWO OFF WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND STORMS AROUND. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA...SHOULD SEE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH BLEND SUGGESTING
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE REGIONAL MODEL INITIALIZATION WILL BE USED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE GFS IS SAYING ABOUT WHAT IT DID YESTERDAY FOR NEXT WEEKS
FORECAST. THE LATEST EUROPEAN HAS NEARLY CONVERGED ON THIS. THE
CONVERGENCE IS PARTICULARLY EVIDENT IN THE HANDLING OF A TROUGH OVER
THE AREA THAT WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO OUR WEATHER.

THIS IS A STRONG INDICATION THE GFS HAS A GOOD GRIP ON WHAT WILL
HAPPEN. ADDITIONAL SUPPORTING EVIDENCE IS SMALL SPREAD BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY CLOUDS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY. THEN AN INFLUX OF MOIST AIR AHEAD OF A FRONT COMING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE CEILINGS OF 35 TO 45 HUNDRED FEET.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.IT
IS TOO EARLY TO BE PRECISE WITH THEIR FORECAST. FOR NOW VCTS WILL
BE USED AFTER 18Z AT IND.

VISIBILITIES WILL STAY P6SM MOST OF THE TIME...BUT MAY LOCALLY BE
MVFR IN FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

WINDS ARE GOING TO BE LESS THAN KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN
BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS FRIDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 281754
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
154 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE THE STORMY PATTERN REASSERTS ITSELF WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
TO START THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE REPLACED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS 82-85.
AND GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER THIS BRIEF DRY RESPITE DURING THE NEAR TERM...A RETURN TO
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES THROUGH THAT
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST A WET ONE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON GOOD MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ON SATURDAY
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS GENERALLY SIMILAR SO LEANED WITH A
BLEND. THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL BE REPLACED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER DEW POINTS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE REGIONAL MODEL INITIALIZATION WILL BE USED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE GFS IS SAYING ABOUT WHAT IT DID YESTERDAY FOR NEXT WEEKS
FORECAST. THE LATEST EUROPEAN HAS NEARLY CONVERGED ON THIS. THE
CONVERGENCE IS PARTICULARLY EVIDENT IN THE HANDLING OF A TROUGH OVER
THE AREA THAT WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO OUR WEATHER.

THIS IS A STRONG INDICATION THE GFS HAS A GOOD GRIP ON WHAT WILL
HAPPEN. ADDITIONAL SUPPORTING EVIDENCE IS SMALL SPREAD BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY CLOUDS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY. THEN AN INFLUX OF MOIST AIR AHEAD OF A FRONT COMING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE CEILINGS OF 35 TO 45 HUNDRED FEET.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.IT
IS TOO EARLY TO BE PRECISE WITH THEIR FORECAST. FOR NOW VCTS WILL
BE USED AFTER 18Z AT IND.

VISIBILITIES WILL STAY P6SM MOST OF THE TIME...BUT MAY LOCALLY BE
MVFR IN FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

WINDS ARE GOING TO BE LESS THAN KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN
BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS FRIDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 281754
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
154 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE THE STORMY PATTERN REASSERTS ITSELF WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
TO START THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE REPLACED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS 82-85.
AND GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER THIS BRIEF DRY RESPITE DURING THE NEAR TERM...A RETURN TO
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES THROUGH THAT
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST A WET ONE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON GOOD MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ON SATURDAY
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS GENERALLY SIMILAR SO LEANED WITH A
BLEND. THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL BE REPLACED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER DEW POINTS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE REGIONAL MODEL INITIALIZATION WILL BE USED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE GFS IS SAYING ABOUT WHAT IT DID YESTERDAY FOR NEXT WEEKS
FORECAST. THE LATEST EUROPEAN HAS NEARLY CONVERGED ON THIS. THE
CONVERGENCE IS PARTICULARLY EVIDENT IN THE HANDLING OF A TROUGH OVER
THE AREA THAT WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO OUR WEATHER.

THIS IS A STRONG INDICATION THE GFS HAS A GOOD GRIP ON WHAT WILL
HAPPEN. ADDITIONAL SUPPORTING EVIDENCE IS SMALL SPREAD BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY CLOUDS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY. THEN AN INFLUX OF MOIST AIR AHEAD OF A FRONT COMING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE CEILINGS OF 35 TO 45 HUNDRED FEET.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.IT
IS TOO EARLY TO BE PRECISE WITH THEIR FORECAST. FOR NOW VCTS WILL
BE USED AFTER 18Z AT IND.

VISIBILITIES WILL STAY P6SM MOST OF THE TIME...BUT MAY LOCALLY BE
MVFR IN FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

WINDS ARE GOING TO BE LESS THAN KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN
BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS FRIDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 281754
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
154 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE THE STORMY PATTERN REASSERTS ITSELF WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
TO START THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE REPLACED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS 82-85.
AND GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER THIS BRIEF DRY RESPITE DURING THE NEAR TERM...A RETURN TO
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES THROUGH THAT
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST A WET ONE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON GOOD MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ON SATURDAY
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS GENERALLY SIMILAR SO LEANED WITH A
BLEND. THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL BE REPLACED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER DEW POINTS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE REGIONAL MODEL INITIALIZATION WILL BE USED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE GFS IS SAYING ABOUT WHAT IT DID YESTERDAY FOR NEXT WEEKS
FORECAST. THE LATEST EUROPEAN HAS NEARLY CONVERGED ON THIS. THE
CONVERGENCE IS PARTICULARLY EVIDENT IN THE HANDLING OF A TROUGH OVER
THE AREA THAT WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO OUR WEATHER.

THIS IS A STRONG INDICATION THE GFS HAS A GOOD GRIP ON WHAT WILL
HAPPEN. ADDITIONAL SUPPORTING EVIDENCE IS SMALL SPREAD BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY CLOUDS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY. THEN AN INFLUX OF MOIST AIR AHEAD OF A FRONT COMING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE CEILINGS OF 35 TO 45 HUNDRED FEET.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.IT
IS TOO EARLY TO BE PRECISE WITH THEIR FORECAST. FOR NOW VCTS WILL
BE USED AFTER 18Z AT IND.

VISIBILITIES WILL STAY P6SM MOST OF THE TIME...BUT MAY LOCALLY BE
MVFR IN FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

WINDS ARE GOING TO BE LESS THAN KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN
BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS FRIDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 281653
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1253 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE THE STORMY PATTERN REASSERTS ITSELF WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
TO START THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE REPLACED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS 82-85.
AND GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER THIS BRIEF DRY RESPITE DURING THE NEAR TERM...A RETURN TO
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES THROUGH THAT
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST A WET ONE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON GOOD MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ON SATURDAY
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS GENERALLY SIMILAR SO LEANED WITH A
BLEND. THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL BE REPLACED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER DEW POINTS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY...AND THIS IS REPRESENTED WELL BY LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THAT HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS /MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA/ THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. AFTER THAT...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
80S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY CLOUDS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY. THEN AN INFLUX OF MOIST AIR AHEAD OF A FRONT COMING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE CEILINGS OF 35 TO 45 HUNDRED FEET.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.IT
IS TOO EARLY TO BE PRECISE WITH THEIR FORECAST. FOR NOW VCTS WILL
BE USED AFTER 18Z AT IND.

VISIBILITIES WILL STAY P6SM MOST OF THE TIME...BUT MAY LOCALLY BE
MVFR IN FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

WINDS ARE GOING TO BE LESS THAN KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN
BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD/JK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 281653
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1253 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE THE STORMY PATTERN REASSERTS ITSELF WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
TO START THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE REPLACED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS 82-85.
AND GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER THIS BRIEF DRY RESPITE DURING THE NEAR TERM...A RETURN TO
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES THROUGH THAT
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST A WET ONE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON GOOD MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ON SATURDAY
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS GENERALLY SIMILAR SO LEANED WITH A
BLEND. THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL BE REPLACED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER DEW POINTS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY...AND THIS IS REPRESENTED WELL BY LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THAT HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS /MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA/ THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. AFTER THAT...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
80S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY CLOUDS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY. THEN AN INFLUX OF MOIST AIR AHEAD OF A FRONT COMING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE CEILINGS OF 35 TO 45 HUNDRED FEET.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.IT
IS TOO EARLY TO BE PRECISE WITH THEIR FORECAST. FOR NOW VCTS WILL
BE USED AFTER 18Z AT IND.

VISIBILITIES WILL STAY P6SM MOST OF THE TIME...BUT MAY LOCALLY BE
MVFR IN FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

WINDS ARE GOING TO BE LESS THAN KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN
BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD/JK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 281422
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1022 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE THE STORMY PATTERN REASSERTS ITSELF WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
TO START THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE REPLACED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS 82-85.
AND GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER THIS BRIEF DRY RESPITE DURING THE NEAR TERM...A RETURN TO
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES THROUGH THAT
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST A WET ONE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON GOOD MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ON SATURDAY
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS GENERALLY SIMILAR SO LEANED WITH A
BLEND. THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL BE REPLACED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER DEW POINTS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY...AND THIS IS REPRESENTED WELL BY LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THAT HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS /MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA/ THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. AFTER THAT...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
80S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN NO CEILINGS AND P6SM
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 25 HUNDRED FEET MAY
DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD.

A WETTER PATTERN WILL RESUME TOMORROW MORNING AS WEAK UPPER WAVES
INFILTRATE THE LOWER MIDWEST. AS A RESULT...VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED
AT KIND FRIDAY STARTING AROUND 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.




&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD/JK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 281422
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1022 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE THE STORMY PATTERN REASSERTS ITSELF WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
TO START THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE REPLACED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS 82-85.
AND GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER THIS BRIEF DRY RESPITE DURING THE NEAR TERM...A RETURN TO
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES THROUGH THAT
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST A WET ONE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON GOOD MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ON SATURDAY
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS GENERALLY SIMILAR SO LEANED WITH A
BLEND. THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL BE REPLACED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER DEW POINTS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY...AND THIS IS REPRESENTED WELL BY LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THAT HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS /MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA/ THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. AFTER THAT...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
80S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN NO CEILINGS AND P6SM
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 25 HUNDRED FEET MAY
DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD.

A WETTER PATTERN WILL RESUME TOMORROW MORNING AS WEAK UPPER WAVES
INFILTRATE THE LOWER MIDWEST. AS A RESULT...VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED
AT KIND FRIDAY STARTING AROUND 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.




&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD/JK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 281422
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1022 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE THE STORMY PATTERN REASSERTS ITSELF WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
TO START THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE REPLACED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS 82-85.
AND GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER THIS BRIEF DRY RESPITE DURING THE NEAR TERM...A RETURN TO
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES THROUGH THAT
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST A WET ONE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON GOOD MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ON SATURDAY
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS GENERALLY SIMILAR SO LEANED WITH A
BLEND. THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL BE REPLACED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER DEW POINTS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY...AND THIS IS REPRESENTED WELL BY LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THAT HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS /MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA/ THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. AFTER THAT...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
80S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN NO CEILINGS AND P6SM
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 25 HUNDRED FEET MAY
DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD.

A WETTER PATTERN WILL RESUME TOMORROW MORNING AS WEAK UPPER WAVES
INFILTRATE THE LOWER MIDWEST. AS A RESULT...VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED
AT KIND FRIDAY STARTING AROUND 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.




&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD/JK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 281422
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1022 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE THE STORMY PATTERN REASSERTS ITSELF WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
TO START THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE REPLACED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS 82-85.
AND GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER THIS BRIEF DRY RESPITE DURING THE NEAR TERM...A RETURN TO
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES THROUGH THAT
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST A WET ONE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON GOOD MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ON SATURDAY
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS GENERALLY SIMILAR SO LEANED WITH A
BLEND. THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL BE REPLACED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER DEW POINTS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY...AND THIS IS REPRESENTED WELL BY LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THAT HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS /MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA/ THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. AFTER THAT...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
80S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN NO CEILINGS AND P6SM
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 25 HUNDRED FEET MAY
DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD.

A WETTER PATTERN WILL RESUME TOMORROW MORNING AS WEAK UPPER WAVES
INFILTRATE THE LOWER MIDWEST. AS A RESULT...VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED
AT KIND FRIDAY STARTING AROUND 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.




&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD/JK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 281132
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
732 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE THE STORMY PATTERN REASSERTS ITSELF WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
TO START THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE REPLACED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS 82-85.
AND GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER THIS BRIEF DRY RESPITE DURING THE NEAR TERM...A RETURN TO
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES THROUGH THAT
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST A WET ONE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON GOOD MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ON SATURDAY
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS GENERALLY SIMILAR SO LEANED WITH A
BLEND. THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL BE REPLACED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER DEW POINTS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY...AND THIS IS REPRESENTED WELL BY LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THAT HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS /MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA/ THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. AFTER THAT...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
80S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LIFR FOG WILL IMPEDE FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KBMG OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CATEGORY WILL OCCUR BY MID
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...VFR IS THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY AT
REMAINING TAF SITES. DRIER AIR FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD.

THE WETTER PATTERN WILL RESUME TOMORROW MORNING AS WEAK UPPER
WAVES INFILTRATE THE LOWER MIDWEST. AS A RESULT...INSERTED MENTION
OF VCTS AT KIND AROUND FRI 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 5 TO 10 KTS AND WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 281132
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
732 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE THE STORMY PATTERN REASSERTS ITSELF WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
TO START THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE REPLACED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS 82-85.
AND GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER THIS BRIEF DRY RESPITE DURING THE NEAR TERM...A RETURN TO
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES THROUGH THAT
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST A WET ONE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON GOOD MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ON SATURDAY
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS GENERALLY SIMILAR SO LEANED WITH A
BLEND. THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL BE REPLACED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER DEW POINTS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY...AND THIS IS REPRESENTED WELL BY LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THAT HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS /MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA/ THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. AFTER THAT...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
80S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LIFR FOG WILL IMPEDE FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KBMG OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CATEGORY WILL OCCUR BY MID
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...VFR IS THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY AT
REMAINING TAF SITES. DRIER AIR FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD.

THE WETTER PATTERN WILL RESUME TOMORROW MORNING AS WEAK UPPER
WAVES INFILTRATE THE LOWER MIDWEST. AS A RESULT...INSERTED MENTION
OF VCTS AT KIND AROUND FRI 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 5 TO 10 KTS AND WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 281132
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
732 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE THE STORMY PATTERN REASSERTS ITSELF WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
TO START THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE REPLACED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS 82-85.
AND GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER THIS BRIEF DRY RESPITE DURING THE NEAR TERM...A RETURN TO
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES THROUGH THAT
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST A WET ONE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON GOOD MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ON SATURDAY
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS GENERALLY SIMILAR SO LEANED WITH A
BLEND. THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL BE REPLACED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER DEW POINTS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY...AND THIS IS REPRESENTED WELL BY LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THAT HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS /MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA/ THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. AFTER THAT...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
80S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LIFR FOG WILL IMPEDE FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KBMG OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CATEGORY WILL OCCUR BY MID
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...VFR IS THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY AT
REMAINING TAF SITES. DRIER AIR FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD.

THE WETTER PATTERN WILL RESUME TOMORROW MORNING AS WEAK UPPER
WAVES INFILTRATE THE LOWER MIDWEST. AS A RESULT...INSERTED MENTION
OF VCTS AT KIND AROUND FRI 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 5 TO 10 KTS AND WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 280830
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE THE STORMY PATTERN REASSERTS ITSELF WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
TO START THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE REPLACED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS 82-85.
AND GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER THIS BRIEF DRY RESPITE DURING THE NEAR TERM...A RETURN TO
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES THROUGH THAT
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST A WET ONE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON GOOD MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ON SATURDAY
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS GENERALLY SIMILAR SO LEANED WITH A
BLEND. THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL BE REPLACED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER DEW POINTS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY...AND THIS IS REPRESENTED WELL BY LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THAT HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS /MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA/ THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. AFTER THAT...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
80S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO BE VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE EAST BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...LOOKING
FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION TO RETURN FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...DWM/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 280759
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
359 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE THE STORMY PATTERN REASSERTS ITSELF WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
TO START THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE REPLACED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS 82-85.
AND GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER THIS BRIEF DRY RESPITE DURING THE NEAR TERM...A RETURN TO
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES THROUGH THAT
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST A WET ONE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON GOOD MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ON SATURDAY
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS GENERALLY SIMILAR SO LEANED WITH A
BLEND. THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL BE REPLACED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER DEW POINTS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY...AND THIS IS REPRESENTED WELL BY LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THAT HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS /MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA/ THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. AFTER THAT...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
80S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO BE VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE EAST BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGS
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.  THUS...LOOKING
FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION TO RETURN FRIDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...DWM

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 280759
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
359 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE THE STORMY PATTERN REASSERTS ITSELF WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
TO START THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE REPLACED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS 82-85.
AND GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER THIS BRIEF DRY RESPITE DURING THE NEAR TERM...A RETURN TO
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES THROUGH THAT
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST A WET ONE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON GOOD MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ON SATURDAY
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS GENERALLY SIMILAR SO LEANED WITH A
BLEND. THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL BE REPLACED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER DEW POINTS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY...AND THIS IS REPRESENTED WELL BY LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THAT HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS /MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA/ THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. AFTER THAT...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
80S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO BE VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE EAST BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGS
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.  THUS...LOOKING
FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION TO RETURN FRIDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...DWM

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 280735
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
335 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE THE STORMY PATTERN REASSERTS ITSELF WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
TO START THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE REPLACED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS 82-85.
AND GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER THIS BRIEF DRY RESPITE DURING THE NEAR TERM...A RETURN TO
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES THROUGH THAT
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST A WET ONE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON GOOD MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ON SATURDAY
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS GENERALLY SIMILAR SO LEANED WITH A
BLEND. THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL BE REPLACED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER DEW POINTS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL BLEND WILL BE USED.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGH INTO MONDAY WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW. CRUCIAL
DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE HANDLING OF A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH THE
GFS PLACES RIGHT OVER THE AREA BUT THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS FARTHER
SOUTH. JUST WHERE THE TROUGH ENDS UP WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON
WHERE CONVECTION FIRES.  UNTIL WE CAN BE CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT...WE
CANT BE CONFIDENT ABOUT THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO BE VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE EAST BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGS
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.  THUS...LOOKING
FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION TO RETURN FRIDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...DWM

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 280735
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
335 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE THE STORMY PATTERN REASSERTS ITSELF WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
TO START THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE REPLACED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS 82-85.
AND GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER THIS BRIEF DRY RESPITE DURING THE NEAR TERM...A RETURN TO
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES THROUGH THAT
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST A WET ONE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON GOOD MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ON SATURDAY
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS GENERALLY SIMILAR SO LEANED WITH A
BLEND. THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL BE REPLACED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER DEW POINTS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL BLEND WILL BE USED.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGH INTO MONDAY WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW. CRUCIAL
DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE HANDLING OF A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH THE
GFS PLACES RIGHT OVER THE AREA BUT THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS FARTHER
SOUTH. JUST WHERE THE TROUGH ENDS UP WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON
WHERE CONVECTION FIRES.  UNTIL WE CAN BE CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT...WE
CANT BE CONFIDENT ABOUT THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO BE VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE EAST BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGS
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.  THUS...LOOKING
FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION TO RETURN FRIDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...DWM

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 280735
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
335 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE THE STORMY PATTERN REASSERTS ITSELF WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
TO START THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE REPLACED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS 82-85.
AND GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER THIS BRIEF DRY RESPITE DURING THE NEAR TERM...A RETURN TO
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES THROUGH THAT
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST A WET ONE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON GOOD MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ON SATURDAY
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS GENERALLY SIMILAR SO LEANED WITH A
BLEND. THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL BE REPLACED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER DEW POINTS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL BLEND WILL BE USED.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGH INTO MONDAY WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW. CRUCIAL
DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE HANDLING OF A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH THE
GFS PLACES RIGHT OVER THE AREA BUT THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS FARTHER
SOUTH. JUST WHERE THE TROUGH ENDS UP WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON
WHERE CONVECTION FIRES.  UNTIL WE CAN BE CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT...WE
CANT BE CONFIDENT ABOUT THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO BE VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE EAST BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGS
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.  THUS...LOOKING
FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION TO RETURN FRIDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...DWM

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 280437
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1237 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR
AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A DRY THURSDAY
BEFORE THE STORMY PATTERN REASSERTS ITSELF WITH THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY TO START THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE REPLACED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 953 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS WORKED SOUTH OF I-70 NOW...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION STILL FIRING ALONG IT OVER EXTREME EASTERN INDIANA INTO
OHIO. IT WAS OTHERWISE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OTHER THAN A
FEW SMALL SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE INDY METRO. TEMPS
LARGELY REMAINED IN THE 70S AS OF 0130Z.

HAVE HELD ONTO A 20 POP OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH ABOUT 03-04Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY STRAGGLERS THAT
DEVELOP AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH. EXPECT
HOWEVER THAT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE AIRMASS IS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR WILL EXPAND SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. SKIES HAVE ALREADY GONE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS NORTHWEST
COUNTIES...AND EXPECT MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-70 WILL BE MAINLY
CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. FURTHER SOUTH...HOLDING
ONTO MORE CLOUDS AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. EVEN
HERE THOUGH EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOG
POTENTIAL A BIT BETTER TONIGHT THAN IT WAS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. DRIER AIR BUILDING IN HOWEVER
SHOULD KEEP FOG LOCALIZED.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR A DAY. AFTER THAT
THOUGH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES
THROUGH THAT WILL KEEP A WET FORECAST IN THE OFFING. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS
PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT IS MOVING A
BIT FASTER THIS SET OF RUNS...AND KEPT LIKELIES ON SATURDAY WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

FOR TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE WAS FAIRLY SIMILAR AND GENERALLY USED A
CONSENSUS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL BLEND WILL BE USED.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGH INTO MONDAY WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW. CRUCIAL
DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE HANDLING OF A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH THE
GFS PLACES RIGHT OVER THE AREA BUT THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS FARTHER
SOUTH. JUST WHERE THE TROUGH ENDS UP WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON
WHERE CONVECTION FIRES.  UNTIL WE CAN BE CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT...WE
CANT BE CONFIDENT ABOUT THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO BE VFR THROUGH THE REAMINDER OF TONIGHT AND
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE EAST BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGS
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.  THUS...LOOKING
FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION TO RETURN FRIDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP/RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...DWM

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 280437
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1237 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR
AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A DRY THURSDAY
BEFORE THE STORMY PATTERN REASSERTS ITSELF WITH THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY TO START THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE REPLACED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 953 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS WORKED SOUTH OF I-70 NOW...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION STILL FIRING ALONG IT OVER EXTREME EASTERN INDIANA INTO
OHIO. IT WAS OTHERWISE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OTHER THAN A
FEW SMALL SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE INDY METRO. TEMPS
LARGELY REMAINED IN THE 70S AS OF 0130Z.

HAVE HELD ONTO A 20 POP OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH ABOUT 03-04Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY STRAGGLERS THAT
DEVELOP AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH. EXPECT
HOWEVER THAT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE AIRMASS IS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR WILL EXPAND SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. SKIES HAVE ALREADY GONE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS NORTHWEST
COUNTIES...AND EXPECT MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-70 WILL BE MAINLY
CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. FURTHER SOUTH...HOLDING
ONTO MORE CLOUDS AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. EVEN
HERE THOUGH EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOG
POTENTIAL A BIT BETTER TONIGHT THAN IT WAS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. DRIER AIR BUILDING IN HOWEVER
SHOULD KEEP FOG LOCALIZED.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR A DAY. AFTER THAT
THOUGH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES
THROUGH THAT WILL KEEP A WET FORECAST IN THE OFFING. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS
PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT IS MOVING A
BIT FASTER THIS SET OF RUNS...AND KEPT LIKELIES ON SATURDAY WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

FOR TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE WAS FAIRLY SIMILAR AND GENERALLY USED A
CONSENSUS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL BLEND WILL BE USED.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGH INTO MONDAY WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW. CRUCIAL
DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE HANDLING OF A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH THE
GFS PLACES RIGHT OVER THE AREA BUT THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS FARTHER
SOUTH. JUST WHERE THE TROUGH ENDS UP WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON
WHERE CONVECTION FIRES.  UNTIL WE CAN BE CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT...WE
CANT BE CONFIDENT ABOUT THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO BE VFR THROUGH THE REAMINDER OF TONIGHT AND
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE EAST BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGS
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.  THUS...LOOKING
FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION TO RETURN FRIDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP/RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...DWM

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 280153
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
953 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR
AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A DRY THURSDAY
BEFORE THE STORMY PATTERN REASSERTS ITSELF WITH THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY TO START THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE REPLACED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 953 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS WORKED SOUTH OF I-70 NOW...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION STILL FIRING ALONG IT OVER EXTREME EASTERN INDIANA INTO
OHIO. IT WAS OTHERWISE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OTHER THAN A
FEW SMALL SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE INDY METRO. TEMPS
LARGELY REMAINED IN THE 70S AS OF 0130Z.

HAVE HELD ONTO A 20 POP OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH ABOUT 03-04Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY STRAGGLERS THAT
DEVELOP AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH. EXPECT
HOWEVER THAT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE AIRMASS IS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR WILL EXPAND SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. SKIES HAVE ALREADY GONE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS NORTHWEST
COUNTIES...AND EXPECT MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-70 WILL BE MAINLY
CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. FURTHER SOUTH...HOLDING
ONTO MORE CLOUDS AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. EVEN
HERE THOUGH EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOG
POTENTIAL A BIT BETTER TONIGHT THAN IT WAS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. DRIER AIR BUILDING IN HOWEVER
SHOULD KEEP FOG LOCALIZED.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR A DAY. AFTER THAT
THOUGH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES
THROUGH THAT WILL KEEP A WET FORECAST IN THE OFFING. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS
PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT IS MOVING A
BIT FASTER THIS SET OF RUNS...AND KEPT LIKELIES ON SATURDAY WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

FOR TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE WAS FAIRLY SIMILAR AND GENERALLY USED A
CONSENSUS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL BLEND WILL BE USED.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGH INTO MONDAY WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW. CRUCIAL
DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE HANDLING OF A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH THE
GFS PLACES RIGHT OVER THE AREA BUT THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS FARTHER
SOUTH. JUST WHERE THE TROUGH ENDS UP WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON
WHERE CONVECTION FIRES.  UNTIL WE CAN BE CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT...WE
CANT BE CONFIDENT ABOUT THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 28/0000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 602 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A SCATTERED LINE OF -TSRW BETWEEN KIND AND
KLAF MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS RIGHT ALONG
THIS LINE OF ACTIVITY AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THRU 06Z.

ALL STATIONS ARE AT VFR THIS HOUR AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AFTER SUNSET AND AM EXPECTING
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KBMG
AFTER 09Z. THIS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY IN THE MORNING WITH
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AFTER MID-MORNING...BUT CONTINUED VFR WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP/RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...DWM

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 280153
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
953 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR
AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A DRY THURSDAY
BEFORE THE STORMY PATTERN REASSERTS ITSELF WITH THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY TO START THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE REPLACED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 953 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS WORKED SOUTH OF I-70 NOW...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION STILL FIRING ALONG IT OVER EXTREME EASTERN INDIANA INTO
OHIO. IT WAS OTHERWISE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OTHER THAN A
FEW SMALL SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE INDY METRO. TEMPS
LARGELY REMAINED IN THE 70S AS OF 0130Z.

HAVE HELD ONTO A 20 POP OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH ABOUT 03-04Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY STRAGGLERS THAT
DEVELOP AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH. EXPECT
HOWEVER THAT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE AIRMASS IS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR WILL EXPAND SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. SKIES HAVE ALREADY GONE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS NORTHWEST
COUNTIES...AND EXPECT MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-70 WILL BE MAINLY
CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. FURTHER SOUTH...HOLDING
ONTO MORE CLOUDS AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. EVEN
HERE THOUGH EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOG
POTENTIAL A BIT BETTER TONIGHT THAN IT WAS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. DRIER AIR BUILDING IN HOWEVER
SHOULD KEEP FOG LOCALIZED.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR A DAY. AFTER THAT
THOUGH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES
THROUGH THAT WILL KEEP A WET FORECAST IN THE OFFING. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS
PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT IS MOVING A
BIT FASTER THIS SET OF RUNS...AND KEPT LIKELIES ON SATURDAY WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

FOR TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE WAS FAIRLY SIMILAR AND GENERALLY USED A
CONSENSUS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL BLEND WILL BE USED.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGH INTO MONDAY WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW. CRUCIAL
DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE HANDLING OF A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH THE
GFS PLACES RIGHT OVER THE AREA BUT THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS FARTHER
SOUTH. JUST WHERE THE TROUGH ENDS UP WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON
WHERE CONVECTION FIRES.  UNTIL WE CAN BE CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT...WE
CANT BE CONFIDENT ABOUT THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 28/0000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 602 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A SCATTERED LINE OF -TSRW BETWEEN KIND AND
KLAF MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS RIGHT ALONG
THIS LINE OF ACTIVITY AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THRU 06Z.

ALL STATIONS ARE AT VFR THIS HOUR AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AFTER SUNSET AND AM EXPECTING
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KBMG
AFTER 09Z. THIS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY IN THE MORNING WITH
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AFTER MID-MORNING...BUT CONTINUED VFR WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP/RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...DWM

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 272209
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
609 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL TONIGHT. DRIER AIR AND
UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A DRY THURSDAY
BEFORE THE STORMY PATTERN REASSERTS ITSELF WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
TO START THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE REPLACED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

KIND WSR88D SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS IS FINALLY FORMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITH A FEW SMALL SHOWERS POPPING
FROM INDY AND TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS STILL INSTABILITY LEFT TO
TAP INTO BUT SHEAR WITH THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT WOULD
NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT. EXPECTING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO
OF THE AREA...WITH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAVING HAD THEIR MOISTURE
TAPPED OUT BY STORMS TO THEIR SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA FAIRLY EARLY
IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD. WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING
EARLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THEN GO DRY AFTER IT PASSES. WILL SEE
SKIES CLEAR OUT IN THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CLOUDS COULD HANG AROUND A LITTLE LONGER IN THE SOUTH WITH THE FRONT
SLOWING DOWN AS IT NEARS THE OHIO RIVER. MOS NUMBERS WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED AN AVERAGE. THIS WAS A BIT COOLER THAN
CONSENSUS IN THE NORTH BUT THOUGHT IT FIT BETTER WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR A DAY. AFTER THAT
THOUGH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES
THROUGH THAT WILL KEEP A WET FORECAST IN THE OFFING. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS
PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT IS MOVING A
BIT FASTER THIS SET OF RUNS...AND KEPT LIKELIES ON SATURDAY WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

FOR TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE WAS FAIRLY SIMILAR AND GENERALLY USED A
CONSENSUS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL BLEND WILL BE USED.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGH INTO MONDAY WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW. CRUCIAL
DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE HANDLING OF A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH THE
GFS PLACES RIGHT OVER THE AREA BUT THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS FARTHER
SOUTH. JUST WHERE THE TROUGH ENDS UP WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON
WHERE CONVECTION FIRES.  UNTIL WE CAN BE CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT...WE
CANT BE CONFIDENT ABOUT THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 28/0000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 602 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A SCATTERED LINE OF -TSRW BETWEEN KIND AND
KLAF MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS RIGHT ALONG
THIS LINE OF ACTIVITY AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THRU 06Z.

ALL STATIONS ARE AT VFR THIS HOUR AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AFTER SUNSET AND AM EXPECTING
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KBMG
AFTER 09Z. THIS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY IN THE MORNING WITH
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AFTER MID-MORNING...BUT CONTINUED VFR WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...DWM

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 272209
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
609 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL TONIGHT. DRIER AIR AND
UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A DRY THURSDAY
BEFORE THE STORMY PATTERN REASSERTS ITSELF WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
TO START THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE REPLACED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

KIND WSR88D SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS IS FINALLY FORMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITH A FEW SMALL SHOWERS POPPING
FROM INDY AND TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS STILL INSTABILITY LEFT TO
TAP INTO BUT SHEAR WITH THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT WOULD
NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT. EXPECTING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO
OF THE AREA...WITH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAVING HAD THEIR MOISTURE
TAPPED OUT BY STORMS TO THEIR SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA FAIRLY EARLY
IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD. WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING
EARLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THEN GO DRY AFTER IT PASSES. WILL SEE
SKIES CLEAR OUT IN THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CLOUDS COULD HANG AROUND A LITTLE LONGER IN THE SOUTH WITH THE FRONT
SLOWING DOWN AS IT NEARS THE OHIO RIVER. MOS NUMBERS WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED AN AVERAGE. THIS WAS A BIT COOLER THAN
CONSENSUS IN THE NORTH BUT THOUGHT IT FIT BETTER WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR A DAY. AFTER THAT
THOUGH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES
THROUGH THAT WILL KEEP A WET FORECAST IN THE OFFING. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS
PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT IS MOVING A
BIT FASTER THIS SET OF RUNS...AND KEPT LIKELIES ON SATURDAY WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

FOR TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE WAS FAIRLY SIMILAR AND GENERALLY USED A
CONSENSUS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL BLEND WILL BE USED.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGH INTO MONDAY WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW. CRUCIAL
DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE HANDLING OF A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH THE
GFS PLACES RIGHT OVER THE AREA BUT THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS FARTHER
SOUTH. JUST WHERE THE TROUGH ENDS UP WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON
WHERE CONVECTION FIRES.  UNTIL WE CAN BE CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT...WE
CANT BE CONFIDENT ABOUT THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 28/0000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 602 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A SCATTERED LINE OF -TSRW BETWEEN KIND AND
KLAF MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS RIGHT ALONG
THIS LINE OF ACTIVITY AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THRU 06Z.

ALL STATIONS ARE AT VFR THIS HOUR AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AFTER SUNSET AND AM EXPECTING
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KBMG
AFTER 09Z. THIS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY IN THE MORNING WITH
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AFTER MID-MORNING...BUT CONTINUED VFR WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...DWM

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 271951
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
351 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL TONIGHT. DRIER AIR AND
UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A DRY THURSDAY
BEFORE THE STORMY PATTERN REASSERTS ITSELF WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
TO START THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE REPLACED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

KIND WSR88D SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS IS FINALLY FORMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITH A FEW SMALL SHOWERS POPPING
FROM INDY AND TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS STILL INSTABILITY LEFT TO
TAP INTO BUT SHEAR WITH THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT WOULD
NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT. EXPECTING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO
OF THE AREA...WITH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAVING HAD THEIR MOISTURE
TAPPED OUT BY STORMS TO THEIR SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA FAIRLY EARLY
IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD. WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING
EARLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THEN GO DRY AFTER IT PASSES. WILL SEE
SKIES CLEAR OUT IN THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CLOUDS COULD HANG AROUND A LITTLE LONGER IN THE SOUTH WITH THE FRONT
SLOWING DOWN AS IT NEARS THE OHIO RIVER. MOS NUMBERS WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED AN AVERAGE. THIS WAS A BIT COOLER THAN
CONSENSUS IN THE NORTH BUT THOUGHT IT FIT BETTER WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR A DAY. AFTER THAT
THOUGH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES
THROUGH THAT WILL KEEP A WET FORECAST IN THE OFFING. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS
PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT IS MOVING A
BIT FASTER THIS SET OF RUNS...AND KEPT LIKELIES ON SATURDAY WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

FOR TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE WAS FAIRLY SIMILAR AND GENERALLY USED A
CONSENSUS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL BLEND WILL BE USED.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGH INTO MONDAY WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW. CRUCIAL
DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE HANDLING OF A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH THE
GFS PLACES RIGHT OVER THE AREA BUT THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS FARTHER
SOUTH. JUST WHERE THE TROUGH ENDS UP WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON
WHERE CONVECTION FIRES.  UNTIL WE CAN BE CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT...WE
CANT BE CONFIDENT ABOUT THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE STORMS COULD BRING WINDS GUSTING
TO 30 KNOTS OR MORE AS WELL AS MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR EVEN IN STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL BE EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z. AFTER THAT
THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF NO CEILINGS. CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP
AROUND 45 HUNDRED FEET WITH DAYTIME HEATING THURSDAY.

WHILE VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY P6SM...LOCAL IFR IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHERE A LOT OF RAIN FALLS TODAY.

WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SHARPLY AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN
TOO LOW TO AFFECT OPERATIONS THEREAFTER.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 271951
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
351 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL TONIGHT. DRIER AIR AND
UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A DRY THURSDAY
BEFORE THE STORMY PATTERN REASSERTS ITSELF WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
TO START THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE REPLACED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

KIND WSR88D SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS IS FINALLY FORMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITH A FEW SMALL SHOWERS POPPING
FROM INDY AND TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS STILL INSTABILITY LEFT TO
TAP INTO BUT SHEAR WITH THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT WOULD
NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT. EXPECTING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO
OF THE AREA...WITH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAVING HAD THEIR MOISTURE
TAPPED OUT BY STORMS TO THEIR SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA FAIRLY EARLY
IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD. WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING
EARLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THEN GO DRY AFTER IT PASSES. WILL SEE
SKIES CLEAR OUT IN THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CLOUDS COULD HANG AROUND A LITTLE LONGER IN THE SOUTH WITH THE FRONT
SLOWING DOWN AS IT NEARS THE OHIO RIVER. MOS NUMBERS WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED AN AVERAGE. THIS WAS A BIT COOLER THAN
CONSENSUS IN THE NORTH BUT THOUGHT IT FIT BETTER WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR A DAY. AFTER THAT
THOUGH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES
THROUGH THAT WILL KEEP A WET FORECAST IN THE OFFING. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS
PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT IS MOVING A
BIT FASTER THIS SET OF RUNS...AND KEPT LIKELIES ON SATURDAY WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

FOR TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE WAS FAIRLY SIMILAR AND GENERALLY USED A
CONSENSUS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL BLEND WILL BE USED.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGH INTO MONDAY WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW. CRUCIAL
DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE HANDLING OF A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH THE
GFS PLACES RIGHT OVER THE AREA BUT THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS FARTHER
SOUTH. JUST WHERE THE TROUGH ENDS UP WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON
WHERE CONVECTION FIRES.  UNTIL WE CAN BE CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT...WE
CANT BE CONFIDENT ABOUT THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE STORMS COULD BRING WINDS GUSTING
TO 30 KNOTS OR MORE AS WELL AS MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR EVEN IN STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL BE EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z. AFTER THAT
THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF NO CEILINGS. CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP
AROUND 45 HUNDRED FEET WITH DAYTIME HEATING THURSDAY.

WHILE VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY P6SM...LOCAL IFR IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHERE A LOT OF RAIN FALLS TODAY.

WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SHARPLY AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN
TOO LOW TO AFFECT OPERATIONS THEREAFTER.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 271736
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
136 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OCCASIONAL
UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1046 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

GOING FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. DECREASED POPS FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS THIS AREA IS DRY AND HAS NOT EVEN
BEGUN TO CU UP YET. OTHERWISE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH MCV REMNANTS MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS FEATURE
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE ENOUGH ADDITIONAL LIFT/LOCALIZED
VORTICITY ENHANCEMENT TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE
FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES STILL HAVE A
COUPLE OF HOURS TO WARM BEFORE CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT THIS SO
THINK GENERALLY LOW 80S STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

WEAK CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREAS THIS
EVENING...BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME TO AN END AS THE
BOUNDARY SINKS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

MODELS DEPICT THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT FOR AWHILE DURING THIS
PERIOD BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THURSDAY IS STILL
LOOKING TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN. MODELS
INDICATE THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

THEN LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WILL BRING BACK CHANCE POPS INTO THE
AREA BY FRIDAY AS MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MAY EJECT OUT OF
THE ROCKIES TROUGH TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL BLEND WILL BE USED.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGH INTO MONDAY WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW. CRUCIAL
DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE HANDLING OF A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH THE
GFS PLACES RIGHT OVER THE AREA BUT THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS FARTHER
SOUTH. JUST WHERE THE TROUGH ENDS UP WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON
WHERE CONVECTION FIRES.  UNTIL WE CAN BE CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT...WE
CANT BE CONFIDENT ABOUT THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE STORMS COULD BRING WINDS GUSTING
TO 30 KNOTS OR MORE AS WELL AS MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR EVEN IN STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL BE EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z. AFTER THAT
THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF NO CEILINGS. CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP
AROUND 45 HUNDRED FEET WITH DAYTIME HEATING THURSDAY.

WHILE VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY P6SM...LOCAL IFR IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHERE A LOT OF RAIN FALLS TODAY.

WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SHARPLY AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN
TOO LOW TO AFFECT OPERATIONS THEREAFTER.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 271736
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
136 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OCCASIONAL
UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1046 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

GOING FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. DECREASED POPS FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS THIS AREA IS DRY AND HAS NOT EVEN
BEGUN TO CU UP YET. OTHERWISE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH MCV REMNANTS MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS FEATURE
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE ENOUGH ADDITIONAL LIFT/LOCALIZED
VORTICITY ENHANCEMENT TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE
FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES STILL HAVE A
COUPLE OF HOURS TO WARM BEFORE CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT THIS SO
THINK GENERALLY LOW 80S STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

WEAK CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREAS THIS
EVENING...BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME TO AN END AS THE
BOUNDARY SINKS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

MODELS DEPICT THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT FOR AWHILE DURING THIS
PERIOD BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THURSDAY IS STILL
LOOKING TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN. MODELS
INDICATE THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

THEN LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WILL BRING BACK CHANCE POPS INTO THE
AREA BY FRIDAY AS MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MAY EJECT OUT OF
THE ROCKIES TROUGH TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL BLEND WILL BE USED.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGH INTO MONDAY WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW. CRUCIAL
DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE HANDLING OF A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH THE
GFS PLACES RIGHT OVER THE AREA BUT THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS FARTHER
SOUTH. JUST WHERE THE TROUGH ENDS UP WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON
WHERE CONVECTION FIRES.  UNTIL WE CAN BE CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT...WE
CANT BE CONFIDENT ABOUT THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE STORMS COULD BRING WINDS GUSTING
TO 30 KNOTS OR MORE AS WELL AS MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR EVEN IN STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL BE EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z. AFTER THAT
THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF NO CEILINGS. CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP
AROUND 45 HUNDRED FEET WITH DAYTIME HEATING THURSDAY.

WHILE VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY P6SM...LOCAL IFR IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHERE A LOT OF RAIN FALLS TODAY.

WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SHARPLY AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN
TOO LOW TO AFFECT OPERATIONS THEREAFTER.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 271656
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1256 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OCCASIONAL
UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1046 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

GOING FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. DECREASED POPS FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS THIS AREA IS DRY AND HAS NOT EVEN
BEGUN TO CU UP YET. OTHERWISE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH MCV REMNANTS MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS FEATURE
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE ENOUGH ADDITIONAL LIFT/LOCALIZED
VORTICITY ENHANCEMENT TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE
FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES STILL HAVE A
COUPLE OF HOURS TO WARM BEFORE CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT THIS SO
THINK GENERALLY LOW 80S STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

WEAK CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREAS THIS
EVENING...BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME TO AN END AS THE
BOUNDARY SINKS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

MODELS DEPICT THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT FOR AWHILE DURING THIS
PERIOD BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THURSDAY IS STILL
LOOKING TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN. MODELS
INDICATE THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

THEN LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WILL BRING BACK CHANCE POPS INTO THE
AREA BY FRIDAY AS MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MAY EJECT OUT OF
THE ROCKIES TROUGH TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE WILL BE WARM/MOIST AIR IN PLACE FOR THE
FRONT TO WORK WITH...SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT THAT CAME IN WITH LATEST REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.

DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNDAY...BUT AN UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD ADVECT ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SOME WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE
SURFACE WILL ALSO PROVIDE AN AREA FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT.

TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL AFTER PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE STORMS COULD BRING WINDS GUSTING
TO 30 KNOTS OR MORE AS WELL AS MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR EVEN IN STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL BE EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z. AFTER THAT
THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF NO CEILINGS. CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP
AROUND 45 HUNDRED FEET WITH DAYTIME HEATING THURSDAY.

WHILE VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY P6SM...LOCAL IFR IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHERE A LOT OF RAIN FALLS TODAY.

WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SHARPLY AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN
TOO LOW TO AFFECT OPERATIONS THEREAFTER.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 271656
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1256 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OCCASIONAL
UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1046 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

GOING FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. DECREASED POPS FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS THIS AREA IS DRY AND HAS NOT EVEN
BEGUN TO CU UP YET. OTHERWISE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH MCV REMNANTS MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS FEATURE
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE ENOUGH ADDITIONAL LIFT/LOCALIZED
VORTICITY ENHANCEMENT TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE
FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES STILL HAVE A
COUPLE OF HOURS TO WARM BEFORE CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT THIS SO
THINK GENERALLY LOW 80S STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

WEAK CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREAS THIS
EVENING...BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME TO AN END AS THE
BOUNDARY SINKS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

MODELS DEPICT THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT FOR AWHILE DURING THIS
PERIOD BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THURSDAY IS STILL
LOOKING TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN. MODELS
INDICATE THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

THEN LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WILL BRING BACK CHANCE POPS INTO THE
AREA BY FRIDAY AS MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MAY EJECT OUT OF
THE ROCKIES TROUGH TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE WILL BE WARM/MOIST AIR IN PLACE FOR THE
FRONT TO WORK WITH...SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT THAT CAME IN WITH LATEST REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.

DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNDAY...BUT AN UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD ADVECT ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SOME WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE
SURFACE WILL ALSO PROVIDE AN AREA FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT.

TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL AFTER PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE STORMS COULD BRING WINDS GUSTING
TO 30 KNOTS OR MORE AS WELL AS MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR EVEN IN STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL BE EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z. AFTER THAT
THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF NO CEILINGS. CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP
AROUND 45 HUNDRED FEET WITH DAYTIME HEATING THURSDAY.

WHILE VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY P6SM...LOCAL IFR IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHERE A LOT OF RAIN FALLS TODAY.

WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SHARPLY AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN
TOO LOW TO AFFECT OPERATIONS THEREAFTER.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 271446
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1046 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OCCASIONAL
UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1046 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

GOING FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. DECREASED POPS FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS THIS AREA IS DRY AND HAS NOT EVEN
BEGUN TO CU UP YET. OTHERWISE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH MCV REMNANTS MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS FEATURE
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE ENOUGH ADDITIONAL LIFT/LOCALIZED
VORTICITY ENHANCEMENT TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE
FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES STILL HAVE A
COUPLE OF HOURS TO WARM BEFORE CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT THIS SO
THINK GENERALLY LOW 80S STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

WEAK CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREAS THIS
EVENING...BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME TO AN END AS THE
BOUNDARY SINKS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

MODELS DEPICT THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT FOR AWHILE DURING THIS
PERIOD BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THURSDAY IS STILL
LOOKING TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN. MODELS
INDICATE THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

THEN LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WILL BRING BACK CHANCE POPS INTO THE
AREA BY FRIDAY AS MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MAY EJECT OUT OF
THE ROCKIES TROUGH TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE WILL BE WARM/MOIST AIR IN PLACE FOR THE
FRONT TO WORK WITH...SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT THAT CAME IN WITH LATEST REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.

DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNDAY...BUT AN UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD ADVECT ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SOME WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE
SURFACE WILL ALSO PROVIDE AN AREA FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT.

TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL AFTER PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS
COULD RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE DURING ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE
NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR 10 KTS WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

AT THIS TIME...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT BECAUSE
DRY GROUND WILL REDUCE MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS NEEDS TO BE
CAREFULLY MONITORED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 271446
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1046 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OCCASIONAL
UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1046 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

GOING FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. DECREASED POPS FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS THIS AREA IS DRY AND HAS NOT EVEN
BEGUN TO CU UP YET. OTHERWISE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH MCV REMNANTS MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS FEATURE
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE ENOUGH ADDITIONAL LIFT/LOCALIZED
VORTICITY ENHANCEMENT TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE
FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES STILL HAVE A
COUPLE OF HOURS TO WARM BEFORE CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT THIS SO
THINK GENERALLY LOW 80S STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

WEAK CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREAS THIS
EVENING...BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME TO AN END AS THE
BOUNDARY SINKS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

MODELS DEPICT THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT FOR AWHILE DURING THIS
PERIOD BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THURSDAY IS STILL
LOOKING TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN. MODELS
INDICATE THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

THEN LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WILL BRING BACK CHANCE POPS INTO THE
AREA BY FRIDAY AS MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MAY EJECT OUT OF
THE ROCKIES TROUGH TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE WILL BE WARM/MOIST AIR IN PLACE FOR THE
FRONT TO WORK WITH...SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT THAT CAME IN WITH LATEST REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.

DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNDAY...BUT AN UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD ADVECT ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SOME WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE
SURFACE WILL ALSO PROVIDE AN AREA FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT.

TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL AFTER PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS
COULD RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE DURING ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE
NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR 10 KTS WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

AT THIS TIME...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT BECAUSE
DRY GROUND WILL REDUCE MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS NEEDS TO BE
CAREFULLY MONITORED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 271446
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1046 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OCCASIONAL
UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1046 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

GOING FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. DECREASED POPS FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS THIS AREA IS DRY AND HAS NOT EVEN
BEGUN TO CU UP YET. OTHERWISE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH MCV REMNANTS MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS FEATURE
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE ENOUGH ADDITIONAL LIFT/LOCALIZED
VORTICITY ENHANCEMENT TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE
FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES STILL HAVE A
COUPLE OF HOURS TO WARM BEFORE CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT THIS SO
THINK GENERALLY LOW 80S STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

WEAK CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREAS THIS
EVENING...BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME TO AN END AS THE
BOUNDARY SINKS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

MODELS DEPICT THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT FOR AWHILE DURING THIS
PERIOD BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THURSDAY IS STILL
LOOKING TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN. MODELS
INDICATE THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

THEN LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WILL BRING BACK CHANCE POPS INTO THE
AREA BY FRIDAY AS MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MAY EJECT OUT OF
THE ROCKIES TROUGH TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE WILL BE WARM/MOIST AIR IN PLACE FOR THE
FRONT TO WORK WITH...SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT THAT CAME IN WITH LATEST REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.

DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNDAY...BUT AN UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD ADVECT ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SOME WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE
SURFACE WILL ALSO PROVIDE AN AREA FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT.

TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL AFTER PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS
COULD RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE DURING ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE
NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR 10 KTS WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

AT THIS TIME...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT BECAUSE
DRY GROUND WILL REDUCE MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS NEEDS TO BE
CAREFULLY MONITORED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 271417
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1017 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OCCASIONAL
UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY BEFORE
WASHING OUT LATER THIS WEEK. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING. THERE
IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE...MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL INDIANA. AND THUS IS WHY THIS
AREA IS INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY.

AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES REGION...30-50 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND NEAR
THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COULD
BECOME CONDUCIVE TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS WELL.

WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON.

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN CHANCES WHICH KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

WEAK CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREAS THIS
EVENING...BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME TO AN END AS THE
BOUNDARY SINKS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

MODELS DEPICT THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT FOR AWHILE DURING THIS
PERIOD BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THURSDAY IS STILL
LOOKING TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN. MODELS
INDICATE THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

THEN LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WILL BRING BACK CHANCE POPS INTO THE
AREA BY FRIDAY AS MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MAY EJECT OUT OF
THE ROCKIES TROUGH TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE WILL BE WARM/MOIST AIR IN PLACE FOR THE
FRONT TO WORK WITH...SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT THAT CAME IN WITH LATEST REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.

DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNDAY...BUT AN UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD ADVECT ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SOME WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE
SURFACE WILL ALSO PROVIDE AN AREA FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT.

TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL AFTER PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS
COULD RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE DURING ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE
NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR 10 KTS WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

AT THIS TIME...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT BECAUSE
DRY GROUND WILL REDUCE MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS NEEDS TO BE
CAREFULLY MONITORED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 271417
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1017 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OCCASIONAL
UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY BEFORE
WASHING OUT LATER THIS WEEK. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING. THERE
IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE...MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL INDIANA. AND THUS IS WHY THIS
AREA IS INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY.

AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES REGION...30-50 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND NEAR
THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COULD
BECOME CONDUCIVE TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS WELL.

WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON.

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN CHANCES WHICH KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

WEAK CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREAS THIS
EVENING...BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME TO AN END AS THE
BOUNDARY SINKS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

MODELS DEPICT THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT FOR AWHILE DURING THIS
PERIOD BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THURSDAY IS STILL
LOOKING TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN. MODELS
INDICATE THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

THEN LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WILL BRING BACK CHANCE POPS INTO THE
AREA BY FRIDAY AS MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MAY EJECT OUT OF
THE ROCKIES TROUGH TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE WILL BE WARM/MOIST AIR IN PLACE FOR THE
FRONT TO WORK WITH...SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT THAT CAME IN WITH LATEST REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.

DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNDAY...BUT AN UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD ADVECT ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SOME WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE
SURFACE WILL ALSO PROVIDE AN AREA FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT.

TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL AFTER PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS
COULD RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE DURING ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE
NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR 10 KTS WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

AT THIS TIME...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT BECAUSE
DRY GROUND WILL REDUCE MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS NEEDS TO BE
CAREFULLY MONITORED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 271417
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1017 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OCCASIONAL
UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY BEFORE
WASHING OUT LATER THIS WEEK. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING. THERE
IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE...MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL INDIANA. AND THUS IS WHY THIS
AREA IS INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY.

AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES REGION...30-50 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND NEAR
THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COULD
BECOME CONDUCIVE TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS WELL.

WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON.

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN CHANCES WHICH KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

WEAK CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREAS THIS
EVENING...BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME TO AN END AS THE
BOUNDARY SINKS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

MODELS DEPICT THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT FOR AWHILE DURING THIS
PERIOD BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THURSDAY IS STILL
LOOKING TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN. MODELS
INDICATE THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

THEN LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WILL BRING BACK CHANCE POPS INTO THE
AREA BY FRIDAY AS MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MAY EJECT OUT OF
THE ROCKIES TROUGH TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE WILL BE WARM/MOIST AIR IN PLACE FOR THE
FRONT TO WORK WITH...SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT THAT CAME IN WITH LATEST REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.

DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNDAY...BUT AN UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD ADVECT ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SOME WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE
SURFACE WILL ALSO PROVIDE AN AREA FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT.

TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL AFTER PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS
COULD RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE DURING ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE
NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR 10 KTS WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

AT THIS TIME...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT BECAUSE
DRY GROUND WILL REDUCE MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS NEEDS TO BE
CAREFULLY MONITORED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 271417
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1017 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OCCASIONAL
UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY BEFORE
WASHING OUT LATER THIS WEEK. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING. THERE
IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE...MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL INDIANA. AND THUS IS WHY THIS
AREA IS INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY.

AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES REGION...30-50 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND NEAR
THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COULD
BECOME CONDUCIVE TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS WELL.

WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON.

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN CHANCES WHICH KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

WEAK CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREAS THIS
EVENING...BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME TO AN END AS THE
BOUNDARY SINKS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

MODELS DEPICT THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT FOR AWHILE DURING THIS
PERIOD BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THURSDAY IS STILL
LOOKING TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN. MODELS
INDICATE THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

THEN LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WILL BRING BACK CHANCE POPS INTO THE
AREA BY FRIDAY AS MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MAY EJECT OUT OF
THE ROCKIES TROUGH TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE WILL BE WARM/MOIST AIR IN PLACE FOR THE
FRONT TO WORK WITH...SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT THAT CAME IN WITH LATEST REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.

DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNDAY...BUT AN UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD ADVECT ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SOME WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE
SURFACE WILL ALSO PROVIDE AN AREA FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT.

TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL AFTER PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS
COULD RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE DURING ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE
NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR 10 KTS WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

AT THIS TIME...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT BECAUSE
DRY GROUND WILL REDUCE MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS NEEDS TO BE
CAREFULLY MONITORED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities