000
FXUS63 KIND 201040
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
640 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME IN TO PARTS
OF THE AREA FROM SATURDAY ON WITH THE WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE
AND WEAK UPPER WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA. WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL START UP AND WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM FROM YESTERDAY.
GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PATTERN AND IS VERY SIMILAR SO
USED AN AVERAGE FOR HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S. DEW POINTS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT HAVE TROUBLE CLIMBING MUCH DUE TO
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

UPPER RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A BREAKDOWN IN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE
ON FRIDAY BUT WILL STAY NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BY
SATURDAY THOUGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD ENOUGH TO BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES...MATCHED NICELY BY AN AVERAGE OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS.
WENT DRY AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY.
GENERALLY STUCK VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AVERAGE FOR HIGHS AS IT
SHOULD DO WELL WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO THE AIR MASS. FOR LOWS
USED A CONSENSUS AVERAGE OF MOS AND MODELS TO GET A BIT WARMER THAN
STRICT GUIDANCE TO BETTER MATCH WARM ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME
CIRRUS IF NOT MORE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE WHETHER TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA.  HOWEVER MODELS START
TO BREAK IT DOWN AS THE MAIN PART OF THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES
BACK TOWARDS THE ROCKIES TOWARDS DAY 7.  THIS SETS UP A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND ALLOWS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OUR WAY TOWARDS
THE END OF DAY 7.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER EARLY ON IN THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE HUMID AND UNSTABLE...SO WILL CONTINUE
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MOST AREAS.
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
REGION LATE DAY 7 WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE.

TWEAKED ALL BLEND MAX TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY SUN-TUE
GIVEN THE VERY WARM AIRMASS THAT WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION. OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 201200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD.  WEATHER DEPICTION AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOSTLY SCATTERED CU AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AND WITH SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT. .

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 6 TO 8 KNOTS FROM 15Z-01Z AND
LIGHT AFTER 01Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JEH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 200829
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME IN TO PARTS
OF THE AREA FROM SATURDAY ON WITH THE WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE
AND WEAK UPPER WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA. WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL START UP AND WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM FROM YESTERDAY.
GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PATTERN AND IS VERY SIMILAR SO
USED AN AVERAGE FOR HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S. DEW POINTS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT HAVE TROUBLE CLIMBING MUCH DUE TO
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

UPPER RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A BREAKDOWN IN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE
ON FRIDAY BUT WILL STAY NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BY
SATURDAY THOUGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD ENOUGH TO BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES...MATCHED NICELY BY AN AVERAGE OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS.
WENT DRY AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY.
GENERALLY STUCK VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AVERAGE FOR HIGHS AS IT
SHOULD DO WELL WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO THE AIR MASS. FOR LOWS
USED A CONSENSUS AVERAGE OF MOS AND MODELS TO GET A BIT WARMER THAN
STRICT GUIDANCE TO BETTER MATCH WARM ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME
CIRRUS IF NOT MORE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE WHETHER TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA.  HOWEVER MODELS START
TO BREAK IT DOWN AS THE MAIN PART OF THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES
BACK TOWARDS THE ROCKIES TOWARDS DAY 7.  THIS SETS UP A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND ALLOWS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OUR WAY TOWARDS
THE END OF DAY 7.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER EARLY ON IN THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE HUMID AND UNSTABLE...SO WILL CONTINUE
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MOST AREAS.
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
REGION LATE DAY 7 WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE.

TWEAKED ALL BLEND MAX TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY SUN-TUE
GIVEN THE VERY WARM AIRMASS THAT WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION. OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 200900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY SCATTERED VFR DIURNAL CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SOME CIRRUS. TEMPERATURES AT BMG AND HUF WERE APPROACHING THEIR DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S LATE THIS EVENING...SO WILL THROW
IN MVFR FOG AT THOSE SPOTS FROM 08Z-12Z. WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF
IFR EITHER WITH CALM WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AFTER 15Z
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND DROP BELOW 5 KNOTS AFTER 01Z FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JEH
AVIATION...MK/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 200800
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME IN TO PARTS
OF THE AREA FROM SATURDAY ON WITH THE WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE
AND WEAK UPPER WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA. WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL START UP AND WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM FROM YESTERDAY.
GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PATTERN AND IS VERY SIMILAR SO
USED AN AVERAGE FOR HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S. DEW POINTS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT HAVE TROUBLE CLIMBING MUCH DUE TO
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

UPPER RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A BREAKDOWN IN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE
ON FRIDAY BUT WILL STAY NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BY
SATURDAY THOUGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD ENOUGH TO BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES...MATCHED NICELY BY AN AVERAGE OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS.
WENT DRY AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY.
GENERALLY STUCK VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AVERAGE FOR HIGHS AS IT
SHOULD DO WELL WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO THE AIR MASS. FOR LOWS
USED A CONSENSUS AVERAGE OF MOS AND MODELS TO GET A BIT WARMER THAN
STRICT GUIDANCE TO BETTER MATCH WARM ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME
CIRRUS IF NOT MORE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE WHETHER TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA.  HOWEVER MODELS START
TO BREAK IT DOWN AS THE MAIN PART OF THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES
BACK TOWARDS THE ROCKIES TOWARDS DAY 7.  THIS SETS UP A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND ALLOWS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OUR WAY TOWARDS
THE END OF DAY 7.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER EARLY ON IN THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE HUMID AND UNSTABLE...SO WILL CONTINUE
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MOST AREAS.
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
REGION LATE DAY 7 WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE.

TWEAKED ALL BLEND MAX TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY SUN-TUE
GIVEN THE VERY WARM AIRMASS THAT WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION. OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 200600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY SCATTERED VFR DIURNAL CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SOME CIRRUS. TEMPERATURES AT BMG AND HUF WERE APPROACHING THEIR DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S LATE THIS EVENING...SO WILL THROW
IN MVFR FOG AT THOSE SPOTS FROM 08Z-12Z. WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF
IFR EITHER WITH CALM WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AFTER 15Z
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND DROP BELOW 5 KNOTS AFTER 01Z FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JEH
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 200451
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1250 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WORK WITH AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 926 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CURRENT TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE IN THE LOW 70S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. CU WILL
DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING LEAVING BEHIND SOME PATCHY CIRRUS. FOR
TEMPERATURES...WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER OF THE MOS NUMBERS ACROSS
THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WHERE DRIER AIR RESIDES. WENT CLOSER TO
THE WARMER MOS WEST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD...OTHERWISE ON
TEMPERATURES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TOO HIGH WITH DEWPOINTS SOME
AREAS AND THUS BREAK OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
IGNORED THESE FEATURES...OTHERWISE WENT WITH A BLEND.

UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS WARMER AIR SLOWLY WORKS IN ALOFT.
TEMPERATURE RISE...AND MOISTURE INCREASE...WILL BE GRADUAL AS WINDS
INITIALLY ARE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

WENT DRY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HEIGHTS BUILD. FOR
TEMPERATURES...MAV SEEMS A BIT WARM GIVEN THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND THE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND EARLY ON.  TRENDED
TOWARD THE COOLER MET MOST PLACES.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WELL TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
RELATIVELY LITTLE WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THESE STORMS...AND MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT THAT SOME OF THESE MAY SINK SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW THIS PLAYS OUT...SO
JUST KEPT THE 20 POP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WITH MORE MOISTURE
AROUND THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION CAN BE USED FOR MOST ITEMS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SOME AND ALLOW UPPER SHORTWAVES
TO MOVE AROUND IT. IN ADDITION...ATMOSPHERE WILL BE HOT AND HUMID
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL GO WITH
ALLBLEND WITH 20 POPS DURING THAT TIME.

ON WEDNESDAY A LITTLE STRONGER UPPER WAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...SO WENT 30 POP MOST AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 200600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORHTEASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY SCATTERED VFR DIURNAL CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SOME CIRRUS. TEMPERATURES AT BMG AND HUF WERE APPROACHING THEIR DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S LATE THIS EVENING...SO WILL THROW
IN MVFR FOG AT THOSE SPOTS FROM 08Z-12Z. WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF
IFR EITHER WITH CALM WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AFTER 15Z
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND DROP BELOW 5 KNOTS AFTER 01Z FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 200215
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1015 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WORK WITH AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 926 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CURRENT TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE IN THE LOW 70S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. CU WILL
DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING LEAVING BEHIND SOME PATCHY CIRRUS. FOR
TEMPERATURES...WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER OF THE MOS NUMBERS ACROSS
THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WHERE DRIER AIR RESIDES. WENT CLOSER TO
THE WARMER MOS WEST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD...OTHERWISE ON
TEMPERATURES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TOO HIGH WITH DEWPOINTS SOME
AREAS AND THUS BREAK OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
IGNORED THESE FEATURES...OTHERWISE WENT WITH A BLEND.

UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS WARMER AIR SLOWLY WORKS IN ALOFT.
TEMPERATURE RISE...AND MOISTURE INCREASE...WILL BE GRADUAL AS WINDS
INITIALLY ARE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

WENT DRY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HEIGHTS BUILD. FOR
TEMPERATURES...MAV SEEMS A BIT WARM GIVEN THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND THE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND EARLY ON.  TRENDED
TOWARD THE COOLER MET MOST PLACES.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WELL TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
RELATIVELY LITTLE WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THESE STORMS...AND MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT THAT SOME OF THESE MAY SINK SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW THIS PLAYS OUT...SO
JUST KEPT THE 20 POP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WITH MORE MOISTURE
AROUND THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION CAN BE USED FOR MOST ITEMS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SOME AND ALLOW UPPER SHORTWAVES
TO MOVE AROUND IT. IN ADDITION...ATMOSPHERE WILL BE HOT AND HUMID
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL GO WITH
ALLBLEND WITH 20 POPS DURING THAT TIME.

ON WEDNESDAY A LITTLE STRONGER UPPER WAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...SO WENT 30 POP MOST AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 200300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO LIGHT WINDS...OTHERWISE VFR TO CONTINUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR LITTLE
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SHOULD ONLY SEE
SCATTERED VFR DIURNAL CU AND CIRRUS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR
OR WORSE FOG AT HUF AND BMG AFTER 09Z WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
60S CURRENTLY. BUT...WILL KEEP THE VISIBILITY UNRESTRICTED FOR
NOW...AND SEE HOW THINGS ARE SHAPING UPPER LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE
ISSUING 06Z TAFS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 200130
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
930 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WORK WITH AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 926 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CURRENT TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE IN THE LOW 70S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. CU WILL
DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING LEAVING BEHIND SOME PATCHY CIRRUS. FOR
TEMPERATURES...WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER OF THE MOS NUMBERS ACROSS
THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WHERE DRIER AIR RESIDES. WENT CLOSER TO
THE WARMER MOS WEST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD...OTHERWISE ON
TEMPERATURES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TOO HIGH WITH DEWPOINTS SOME
AREAS AND THUS BREAK OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
IGNORED THESE FEATURES...OTHERWISE WENT WITH A BLEND.

UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS WARMER AIR SLOWLY WORKS IN ALOFT.
TEMPERATURE RISE...AND MOISTURE INCREASE...WILL BE GRADUAL AS WINDS
INITIALLY ARE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

WENT DRY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HEIGHTS BUILD. FOR
TEMPERATURES...MAV SEEMS A BIT WARM GIVEN THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND THE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND EARLY ON.  TRENDED
TOWARD THE COOLER MET MOST PLACES.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WELL TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
RELATIVELY LITTLE WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THESE STORMS...AND MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT THAT SOME OF THESE MAY SINK SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW THIS PLAYS OUT...SO
JUST KEPT THE 20 POP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WITH MORE MOISTURE
AROUND THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION CAN BE USED FOR MOST ITEMS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SOME AND ALLOW UPPER SHORTWAVES
TO MOVE AROUND IT. IN ADDITION...ATMOSPHERE WILL BE HOT AND HUMID
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL GO WITH
ALLBLEND WITH 20 POPS DURING THAT TIME.

ON WEDNESDAY A LITTLE STRONGER UPPER WAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...SO WENT 30 POP MOST AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 200000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR LITTLE
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SHOULD ONLY SEE
SCATTERED VFR DIURNAL CU AND CIRRUS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR
OR WORSE FOG AT HUF AND BMG AFTER 09Z WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
60S CURRENTLY. BUT...WILL KEEP THE VISIBILITY UNRESTRICTED FOR
NOW...AND SEE HOW THINGS ARE SHAPING UPPER LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE
ISSUING 06Z TAFS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 192240
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
640 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WORK WITH AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. CU WILL DISSIPATE
BY EARLY EVENING LEAVING BEHIND SOME PATCHY CIRRUS. FOR
TEMPERATURES...WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER OF THE MOS NUMBERS ACROSS
THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WHERE DRIER AIR RESIDES. WENT CLOSER TO
THE WARMER MOS WEST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD...OTHERWISE ON
TEMPERATURES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TOO HIGH WITH DEWPOINTS SOME
AREAS AND THUS BREAK OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
IGNORED THESE FEATURES...OTHERWISE WENT WITH A BLEND.

UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS WARMER AIR SLOWLY WORKS IN ALOFT.
TEMPERATURE RISE...AND MOISTURE INCREASE...WILL BE GRADUAL AS WINDS
INITIALLY ARE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

WENT DRY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HEIGHTS BUILD. FOR
TEMPERATURES...MAV SEEMS A BIT WARM GIVEN THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND THE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND EARLY ON.  TRENDED
TOWARD THE COOLER MET MOST PLACES.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WELL TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
RELATIVELY LITTLE WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THESE STORMS...AND MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT THAT SOME OF THESE MAY SINK SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW THIS PLAYS OUT...SO
JUST KEPT THE 20 POP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WITH MORE MOISTURE
AROUND THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION CAN BE USED FOR MOST ITEMS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SOME AND ALLOW UPPER SHORTWAVES
TO MOVE AROUND IT. IN ADDITION...ATMOSPHERE WILL BE HOT AND HUMID
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL GO WITH
ALLBLEND WITH 20 POPS DURING THAT TIME.

ON WEDNESDAY A LITTLE STRONGER UPPER WAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...SO WENT 30 POP MOST AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 200000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR LITTLE
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SHOULD ONLY SEE
SCATTERED VFR DIURNAL CU AND CIRRUS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR
OR WORSE FOG AT HUF AND BMG AFTER 09Z WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
60S CURRENTLY. BUT...WILL KEEP THE VISIBILITY UNRESTRICTED FOR
NOW...AND SEE HOW THINGS ARE SHAPING UPPER LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE
ISSUING 06Z TAFS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 192023
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
423 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WORK WITH AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. CU WILL DISSIPATE
BY EARLY EVENING LEAVING BEHIND SOME PATCHY CIRRUS. FOR
TEMPERATURES...WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER OF THE MOS NUMBERS ACROSS
THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WHERE DRIER AIR RESIDES. WENT CLOSER TO
THE WARMER MOS WEST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD...OTHERWISE ON
TEMPERATURES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TOO HIGH WITH DEWPOINTS SOME
AREAS AND THUS BREAK OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
IGNORED THESE FEATURES...OTHERWISE WENT WITH A BLEND.

UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS WARMER AIR SLOWLY WORKS IN ALOFT.
TEMPERATURE RISE...AND MOISTURE INCREASE...WILL BE GRADUAL AS WINDS
INITIALLY ARE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

WENT DRY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HEIGHTS BUILD. FOR
TEMPERATURES...MAV SEEMS A BIT WARM GIVEN THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND THE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND EARLY ON.  TRENDED
TOWARD THE COOLER MET MOST PLACES.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WELL TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
RELATIVELY LITTLE WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THESE STORMS...AND MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT THAT SOME OF THESE MAY SINK SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW THIS PLAYS OUT...SO
JUST KEPT THE 20 POP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WITH MORE MOISTURE
AROUND THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION CAN BE USED FOR MOST ITEMS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SOME AND ALLOW UPPER SHORTWAVES
TO MOVE AROUND IT. IN ADDITION...ATMOSPHERE WILL BE HOT AND HUMID
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL GO WITH
ALLBLEND WITH 20 POPS DURING THAT TIME.

ON WEDNESDAY A LITTLE STRONGER UPPER WAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...SO WENT 30 POP MOST AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 192100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

ONLY MINOR TWEAK TO WINDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
ALLOW LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED CU
TODAY. ANY CU SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS VEERING SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...LEE/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 191847
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
247 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM...AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WORK WITH AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. CU WILL DISSIPATE
BY EARLY EVENING LEAVING BEHIND SOME PATCHY CIRRUS. FOR
TEMPERATURES...WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER OF THE MOS NUMBERS ACROSS
THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WHERE DRIER AIR RESIDES. WENT CLOSER TO
THE WARMER MOS WEST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD...OTHERWISE ON
TEMPERATURES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TOO HIGH WITH DEWPOINTS SOME
AREAS AND THUS BREAK OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
IGNORED THESE FEATURES...OTHERWISE WENT WITH A BLEND.

UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS WARMER AIR SLOWLY WORKS IN ALOFT.
TEMPERATURE RISE...AND MOISTURE INCREASE...WILL BE GRADUAL AS WINDS
INITIALLY ARE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

WENT DRY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HEIGHTS BUILD. FOR
TEMPERATURES...MAV SEEMS A BIT WARM GIVEN THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND THE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND EARLY ON.  TRENDED
TOWARD THE COOLER MET MOST PLACES.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WELL TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
RELATIVELY LITTLE WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THESE STORMS...AND MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT THAT SOME OF THESE MAY SINK SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW THIS PLAYS OUT...SO
JUST KEPT THE 20 POP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WITH MORE MOISTURE
AROUND THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION CAN BE USED FOR MOST ITEMS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SOME AND ALLOW UPPER SHORTWAVES
TO MOVE AROUND IT. IN ADDITION...ATMOSPHERE WILL BE HOT AND HUMID
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL GO WITH
ALLBLEND WITH 20 POPS DURING THAT TIME.

ON WEDNESDAY A LITTLE STRONGER UPPER WAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...SO WENT 30 POP MOST AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 191800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
ALLOW LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED CU
TODAY. ANY CU SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS VEERING SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...LEE

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 191704
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
104 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL INDIANA BRINGING
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF DIP IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY HIGHS WILL WARM BACK TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
FROM FRIDAY ON. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY SOME PATCHY MID CLOUD ACROSS THE AREA
NOW...AND SCATTERED CU STILL LOOK LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THOUGH. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY
FORECASTS.

RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH WEAK COLD
ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS USHERING IN DRIER AIR.
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 11-12C ACROSS THE AREA WENT A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MAV NUMBERS. DAY WILL START OUT CLEAR BUT
TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB SO COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED CU IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES. MODELS WERE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SO USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FOR TONIGHT PREFERRED COOLER
GUIDANCE NUMBERS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST SHOULD SEE WARM ADVECTION RAMP UP AND EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. USED A
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THURSDAY BUT WENT WITH WARMER GUIDANCE ON
FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A BREAKDOWN IN THE
RIDGE COULD TAKE PLACE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT
BREAKDOWN WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THUS KEEP
CENTRAL INDIANA DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GFS SUPPRESSES IT A LITTLE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS DAY 6 AND 7. WHILE THE
GEM AND OLD EURO DID NOT.  THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES THAT
WILL BE COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THAT MAY PRODUCE LOW
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.  THE 12Z EURO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTH SATURDAY WITH LESSER
CHANCES TOWARDS END OF THE EXTENDED.  THE GFS INDICATED VERY LOW
CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BETTER
CHANCES ALL AREAS TOWARDS DAY 7.  700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY
8 TO 10 CELSIUS RANGE WOULD ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE 20 PERCENT CHANCE POPS MOST PERIODS...BUT MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.

WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.  SOME CASES THE ALL BLEND
MAX TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE A BIT TOO COOL AND LEANED CLOSER TO MEX
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 191800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
ALLOW LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED CU
TODAY. ANY CU SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS VEERING SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/50
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...LEE

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 191412
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1012 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL INDIANA BRINGING
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF DIP IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY HIGHS WILL WARM BACK TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
FROM FRIDAY ON. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY SOME PATCHY MID CLOUD ACROSS THE AREA
NOW...AND SCATTERED CU STILL LOOK LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THOUGH. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY
FORECASTS.

RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH WEAK COLD
ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS USHERING IN DRIER AIR.
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 11-12C ACROSS THE AREA WENT A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MAV NUMBERS. DAY WILL START OUT CLEAR BUT
TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB SO COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED CU IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES. MODELS WERE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SO USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FOR TONIGHT PREFERRED COOLER
GUIDANCE NUMBERS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST SHOULD SEE WARM ADVECTION RAMP UP AND EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. USED A
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THURSDAY BUT WENT WITH WARMER GUIDANCE ON
FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A BREAKDOWN IN THE
RIDGE COULD TAKE PLACE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT
BREAKDOWN WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THUS KEEP
CENTRAL INDIANA DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GFS SUPPRESSES IT A LITTLE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS DAY 6 AND 7. WHILE THE
GEM AND OLD EURO DID NOT.  THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES THAT
WILL BE COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THAT MAY PRODUCE LOW
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.  THE 12Z EURO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTH SATURDAY WITH LESSER
CHANCES TOWARDS END OF THE EXTENDED.  THE GFS INDICATED VERY LOW
CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BETTER
CHANCES ALL AREAS TOWARDS DAY 7.  700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY
8 TO 10 CELSIUS RANGE WOULD ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE 20 PERCENT CHANCE POPS MOST PERIODS...BUT MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.

WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.  SOME CASES THE ALL BLEND
MAX TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE A BIT TOO COOL AND LEANED CLOSER TO MEX
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTH
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT SOME CU DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AT KBMG AND KHUF WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE
PREVALENT AND CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING PRESENCE OF A SUBTLE
850MB THERMAL TROUGH.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE
A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE
REGION.  CU RULE INDICATES A LITTLE CU. EXPECT ONLY FEW CU AT KIND
AND KLAF AND SCT CU ELSEWHERE LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE EAST UP TO 8 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/50
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 191330
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
930 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL INDIANA BRINGING
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF DIP IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY HIGHS WILL WARM BACK TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
FROM FRIDAY ON. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY SOME PATCHY MID CLOUD ACROSS THE AREA
NOW...AND SCATTERED CU STILL LOOK LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THOUGH. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY
FORECASTS.

RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH WEAK COLD
ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS USHERING IN DRIER AIR.
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 11-12C ACROSS THE AREA WENT A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MAV NUMBERS. DAY WILL START OUT CLEAR BUT
TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB SO COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED CU IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES. MODELS WERE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SO USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FOR TONIGHT PREFERRED COOLER
GUIDANCE NUMBERS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST SHOULD SEE WARM ADVECTION RAMP UP AND EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. USED A
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THURSDAY BUT WENT WITH WARMER GUIDANCE ON
FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A BREAKDOWN IN THE
RIDGE COULD TAKE PLACE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT
BREAKDOWN WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THUS KEEP
CENTRAL INDIANA DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GFS SUPPRESSES IT A LITTLE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS DAY 6 AND 7. WHILE THE
GEM AND OLD EURO DID NOT.  THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES THAT
WILL BE COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THAT MAY PRODUCE LOW
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.  THE 12Z EURO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTH SATURDAY WITH LESSER
CHANCES TOWARDS END OF THE EXTENDED.  THE GFS INDICATED VERY LOW
CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BETTER
CHANCES ALL AREAS TOWARDS DAY 7.  700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY
8 TO 10 CELSIUS RANGE WOULD ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE 20 PERCENT CHANCE POPS MOST PERIODS...BUT MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.

WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.  SOME CASES THE ALL BLEND
MAX TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE A BIT TOO COOL AND LEANED CLOSER TO MEX
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE
A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE
REGION.  CU RULE INDICATES A LITTLE CU. EXPECT ONLY FEW CU AT KIND
AND KLAF AND SCT CU ELSEWHERE LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE EAST UP TO 8 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/50
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 191043
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
645 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL INDIANA BRINGING
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF DIP IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY HIGHS WILL WARM BACK TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
FROM FRIDAY ON. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

AFTER RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES YESTERDAY
EVENING...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ALLOWING FOG TO FORM.
WINDS ARE NOT DROPPING TO COMPLETELY CALM THOUGH SO DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD LOW VISIBILITIES. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH WEAK COLD
ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS USHERING IN DRIER AIR.
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 11-12C ACROSS THE AREA WENT A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MAV NUMBERS. DAY WILL START OUT CLEAR BUT
TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB SO COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED CU IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES. MODELS WERE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SO USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FOR TONIGHT PREFERRED COOLER
GUIDANCE NUMBERS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST SHOULD SEE WARM ADVECTION RAMP UP AND EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. USED A
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THURSDAY BUT WENT WITH WARMER GUIDANCE ON
FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A BREAKDOWN IN THE
RIDGE COULD TAKE PLACE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT
BREAKDOWN WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THUS KEEP
CENTRAL INDIANA DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GFS SUPPRESSES IT A LITTLE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS DAY 6 AND 7. WHILE THE
GEM AND OLD EURO DID NOT.  THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES THAT
WILL BE COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THAT MAY PRODUCE LOW
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.  THE 12Z EURO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTH SATURDAY WITH LESSER
CHANCES TOWARDS END OF THE EXTENDED.  THE GFS INDICATED VERY LOW
CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BETTER
CHANCES ALL AREAS TOWARDS DAY 7.  700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY
8 TO 10 CELSIUS RANGE WOULD ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE 20 PERCENT CHANCE POPS MOST PERIODS...BUT MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.

WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.  SOME CASES THE ALL BLEND
MAX TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE A BIT TOO COOL AND LEANED CLOSER TO MEX
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE
A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE
REGION.  CU RULE INDICATES A LITTLE CU. EXPECT ONLY FEW CU AT KIND
AND KLAF AND SCT CU ELSEWHERE LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE EAST UP TO 8 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 190833
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
433 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL INDIANA BRINGING
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF DIP IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY HIGHS WILL WARM BACK TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
FROM FRIDAY ON. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

AFTER RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES YESTERDAY
EVENING...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ALLOWING FOG TO FORM.
WINDS ARE NOT DROPPING TO COMPLETELY CALM THOUGH SO DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD LOW VISIBILITIES. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH WEAK COLD
ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS USHERING IN DRIER AIR.
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 11-12C ACROSS THE AREA WENT A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MAV NUMBERS. DAY WILL START OUT CLEAR BUT
TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB SO COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED CU IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES. MODELS WERE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SO USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FOR TONIGHT PREFERRED COOLER
GUIDANCE NUMBERS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST SHOULD SEE WARM ADVECTION RAMP UP AND EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. USED A
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THURSDAY BUT WENT WITH WARMER GUIDANCE ON
FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A BREAKDOWN IN THE
RIDGE COULD TAKE PLACE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT
BREAKDOWN WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THUS KEEP
CENTRAL INDIANA DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GFS SUPPRESSES IT A LITTLE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS DAY 6 AND 7. WHILE THE
GEM AND OLD EURO DID NOT.  THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES THAT
WILL BE COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THAT MAY PRODUCE LOW
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.  THE 12Z EURO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTH SATURDAY WITH LESSER
CHANCES TOWARDS END OF THE EXTENDED.  THE GFS INDICATED VERY LOW
CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BETTER
CHANCES ALL AREAS TOWARDS DAY 7.  700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY
8 TO 10 CELSIUS RANGE WOULD ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE 20 PERCENT CHANCE POPS MOST PERIODS...BUT MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.

WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.  SOME CASES THE ALL BLEND
MAX TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE A BIT TOO COOL AND LEANED CLOSER TO MEX
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/0900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER JUST WEST OF KBMG...BUT
THEY SHOULD DISSIPATED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  VFR WILL BE THE
PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FURTHER INTO TAF
SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.  THERE COULD BE SOME VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR FOG CONDITIONS AT KHUF AND KBMG EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST/EAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...TDUD/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 190804
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
404 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL INDIANA BRINGING
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF DIP IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY HIGHS WILL WARM BACK TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
FROM FRIDAY ON. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

AFTER RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES YESTERDAY
EVENING...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ALLOWING FOG TO FORM.
WINDS ARE NOT DROPPING TO COMPLETELY CALM THOUGH SO DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD LOW VISIBILITIES. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH WEAK COLD
ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS USHERING IN DRIER AIR.
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 11-12C ACROSS THE AREA WENT A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MAV NUMBERS. DAY WILL START OUT CLEAR BUT
TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB SO COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED CU IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES. MODELS WERE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SO USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FOR TONIGHT PREFERRED COOLER
GUIDANCE NUMBERS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST SHOULD SEE WARM ADVECTION RAMP UP AND EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. USED A
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THURSDAY BUT WENT WITH WARMER GUIDANCE ON
FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A BREAKDOWN IN THE
RIDGE COULD TAKE PLACE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT
BREAKDOWN WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THUS KEEP
CENTRAL INDIANA DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GFS SUPPRESSES IT A LITTLE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS DAY 6 AND 7. WHILE THE
GEM AND OLD EURO DID NOT.  THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES THAT
WILL BE COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THAT MAY PRODUCE LOW
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.  THE 12Z EURO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTH SATURDAY WITH LESSER
CHANCES TOWARDS END OF THE EXTENDED.  THE GFS INDICATED VERY LOW
CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BETTER
CHANCES ALL AREAS TOWARDS DAY 7.  700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY
8 TO 10 CELSIUS RANGE WOULD ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE 20 PERCENT CHANCE POPS MOST PERIODS...BUT MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.

WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.  SOME CASES THE ALL BLEND
MAX TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE A BIT TOO COOL AND LEANED CLOSER TO MEX
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 107 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER JUST WEST OF KBMG...BUT
THEY SHOULD DISSIPATED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  VFR WILL BE THE
PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FURTHER INTO TAF
SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.  THERE COULD BE SOME VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR FOG CONDITIONS AT KHUF AND KBMG EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST/EAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...TDUD/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 190510
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
107 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT BRINGING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND
THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME MORE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
BRIEF COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 928 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

INSTABILITY IS ON THE WANE AS HEATING ENDS AND ONLY ISOLATED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN...FORMING AND DYING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA IS
FAIRLY WELL WORKED OVER...SO EXPECT THE GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THESE
STORMS TO CONTINUE WITH THE AREA LIKELY FREE OF STORMS BY MIDNIGHT.
HAVE ALREADY CANCELLED WHAT REMAINED OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
324.

MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO MIN TEMPS AND SKY COVER...BUT THESE
CHANGES ARE RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...AND THESE WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE ISOLATED
STORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD AID IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLD FRONT. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND AS WELL. WILL GO HIGH CHANCE POPS SOUTH BEFORE
00Z WITH CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH.

AFTER 00Z...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH /AS STORMS ARE ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THE MOMENT/ AND CHANCE POPS SOUTH. WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH POPS THOUGH AS INSTABILITY WANES AFTER SUNSET. WILL BE DRY
ALL AREAS BEFORE 06Z.

THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 02Z.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS NUMBERS SINCE
DRIER AIR IS TAKING IS TIME COMING SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN...THEN ON SKY AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH WITH MOST FEATURES THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

THE NAM KEEPS A DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND
THEN GENERATES ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG IT AT TIMES DURING THE
SHORT TERM. HOWEVER THE NAM LOOKS TOO HIGH WITH ITS
DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. THUS BELIEVE
NAM/S CONVECTION IS ALSO OVERDONE...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGH
IN CONTROL. FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND WHICH
LOOKS GOOD GIVEN EXPECTED SKY COVER AND DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN OR BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY AS A FEW SHORT WAVES CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALLBLEND HANDLED THE PATTERN WELL SO DID NOT
DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.

&&


.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 107 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER JUST WEST OF KBMG...BUT
THEY SHOULD DISSIPATED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  VFR WILL BE THE
PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FURTHER INTO TAF
SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.  THERE COULD BE SOME VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR FOG CONDITIONS AT KHUF AND KBMG EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST/EAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/NIELD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...TDUD/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 190232
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1032 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT BRINGING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND
THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME MORE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
BRIEF COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 928 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

INSTABILITY IS ON THE WANE AS HEATING ENDS AND ONLY ISOLATED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN...FORMING AND DYING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA IS
FAIRLY WELL WORKED OVER...SO EXPECT THE GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THESE
STORMS TO CONTINUE WITH THE AREA LIKELY FREE OF STORMS BY MIDNIGHT.
HAVE ALREADY CANCELLED WHAT REMAINED OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
324.

MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO MIN TEMPS AND SKY COVER...BUT THESE
CHANGES ARE RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...AND THESE WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE ISOLATED
STORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD AID IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLD FRONT. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND AS WELL. WILL GO HIGH CHANCE POPS SOUTH BEFORE
00Z WITH CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH.

AFTER 00Z...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH /AS STORMS ARE ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THE MOMENT/ AND CHANCE POPS SOUTH. WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH POPS THOUGH AS INSTABILITY WANES AFTER SUNSET. WILL BE DRY
ALL AREAS BEFORE 06Z.

THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 02Z.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS NUMBERS SINCE
DRIER AIR IS TAKING IS TIME COMING SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN...THEN ON SKY AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH WITH MOST FEATURES THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

THE NAM KEEPS A DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND
THEN GENERATES ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG IT AT TIMES DURING THE
SHORT TERM. HOWEVER THE NAM LOOKS TOO HIGH WITH ITS
DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. THUS BELIEVE
NAM/S CONVECTION IS ALSO OVERDONE...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGH
IN CONTROL. FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND WHICH
LOOKS GOOD GIVEN EXPECTED SKY COVER AND DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN OR BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY AS A FEW SHORT WAVES CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALLBLEND HANDLED THE PATTERN WELL SO DID NOT
DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/0300Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1025 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RE-FORMED IN
THE KHUF AREA...BUT HAVE REMAINED CONFINED TO THAT VICINITY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS TAF SITES...BUT THERE IS
STILL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED POP-UP STORMS THROUGH SUNSET. THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN TAFS THOUGH AT THIS
TIME. HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR DURATION
OF TAF PERIOD. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST AT KIND
AND KLAF...AND THEY WILL DO SO AT KHUF AND KBMG AS WELL WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/NIELD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 190128
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
928 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT BRINGING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND
THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME MORE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
BRIEF COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 928 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

INSTABILITY IS ON THE WANE AS HEATING ENDS AND ONLY ISOLATED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN...FORMING AND DYING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA IS
FAIRLY WELL WORKED OVER...SO EXPECT THE GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THESE
STORMS TO CONTINUE WITH THE AREA LIKELY FREE OF STORMS BY MIDNIGHT.
HAVE ALREADY CANCELLED WHAT REMAINED OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
324.

MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO MIN TEMPS AND SKY COVER...BUT THESE
CHANGES ARE RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...AND THESE WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE ISOLATED
STORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD AID IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLD FRONT. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND AS WELL. WILL GO HIGH CHANCE POPS SOUTH BEFORE
00Z WITH CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH.

AFTER 00Z...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH /AS STORMS ARE ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THE MOMENT/ AND CHANCE POPS SOUTH. WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH POPS THOUGH AS INSTABILITY WANES AFTER SUNSET. WILL BE DRY
ALL AREAS BEFORE 06Z.

THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 02Z.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS NUMBERS SINCE
DRIER AIR IS TAKING IS TIME COMING SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN...THEN ON SKY AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH WITH MOST FEATURES THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

THE NAM KEEPS A DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND
THEN GENERATES ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG IT AT TIMES DURING THE
SHORT TERM. HOWEVER THE NAM LOOKS TOO HIGH WITH ITS
DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. THUS BELIEVE
NAM/S CONVECTION IS ALSO OVERDONE...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGH
IN CONTROL. FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND WHICH
LOOKS GOOD GIVEN EXPECTED SKY COVER AND DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN OR BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY AS A FEW SHORT WAVES CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALLBLEND HANDLED THE PATTERN WELL SO DID NOT
DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS TAF SITES...BUT THERE IS
STILL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED POP-UP STORMS THROUGH SUNSET. THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN TAFS THOUGH AT THIS
TIME. HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR DURATION
OF TAF PERIOD. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST AT KIND
AND KLAF...AND THEY WILL DO SO AT KHUF AND KBMG AS WELL WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/NIELD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 182311
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
711 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT BRINGING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND
THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME MORE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
BRIEF COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...AND THESE WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE ISOLATED
STORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD AID IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLD FRONT. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND AS WELL. WILL GO HIGH CHANCE POPS SOUTH BEFORE
00Z WITH CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH.

AFTER 00Z...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH /AS STORMS ARE ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THE MOMENT/ AND CHANCE POPS SOUTH. WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH POPS THOUGH AS INSTABILITY WANES AFTER SUNSET. WILL BE DRY
ALL AREAS BEFORE 06Z.

THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 02Z.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS NUMBERS SINCE
DRIER AIR IS TAKING IS TIME COMING SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN...THEN ON SKY AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH WITH MOST FEATURES THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

THE NAM KEEPS A DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND
THEN GENERATES ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG IT AT TIMES DURING THE
SHORT TERM. HOWEVER THE NAM LOOKS TOO HIGH WITH ITS
DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. THUS BELIEVE
NAM/S CONVECTION IS ALSO OVERDONE...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGH
IN CONTROL. FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND WHICH
LOOKS GOOD GIVEN EXPECTED SKY COVER AND DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN OR BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY AS A FEW SHORT WAVES CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALLBLEND HANDLED THE PATTERN WELL SO DID NOT
DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS TAF SITES...BUT THERE IS
STILL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED POP-UP STORMS THROUGH SUNSET. THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN TAFS THOUGH AT THIS
TIME. HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR DURATION
OF TAF PERIOD. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST AT KIND
AND KLAF...AND THEY WILL DO SO AT KHUF AND KBMG AS WELL WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 182029
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
429 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT BRINGING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND
THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME MORE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
BRIEF COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...AND THESE WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE ISOLATED
STORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD AID IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLD FRONT. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND AS WELL. WILL GO HIGH CHANCE POPS SOUTH BEFORE
00Z WITH CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH.

AFTER 00Z...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH /AS STORMS ARE ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THE MOMENT/ AND CHANCE POPS SOUTH. WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH POPS THOUGH AS INSTABILITY WANES AFTER SUNSET. WILL BE DRY
ALL AREAS BEFORE 06Z.

THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 02Z.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS NUMBERS SINCE
DRIER AIR IS TAKING IS TIME COMING SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN...THEN ON SKY AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH WITH MOST FEATURES THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

THE NAM KEEPS A DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND
THEN GENERATES ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG IT AT TIMES DURING THE
SHORT TERM. HOWEVER THE NAM LOOKS TOO HIGH WITH ITS
DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. THUS BELIEVE
NAM/S CONVECTION IS ALSO OVERDONE...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGH
IN CONTROL. FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND WHICH
LOOKS GOOD GIVEN EXPECTED SKY COVER AND DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN OR BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY AS A FEW SHORT WAVES CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALLBLEND HANDLED THE PATTERN WELL SO DID NOT
DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/2100Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF KHUF AND KBMG...WHICH
IS CURRENTLY PORTRAYED WELL IN TEMPO GROUPS. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CONTINUE WITH ONLY VCTS AT KIND AND KLAF SINCE MAIN THREAT FOR
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST TAF SITES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE ARRIVING AT TIME OF MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING AND
MODELS INDICATE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION.
RAPID REFRESH MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DEVELOPING BY 19Z-21Z. SPC HAS CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS SO
WILL STICK WITH VCTS AND CB GROUPS FOR THE 19Z THROUGH 01Z
TIMEFRAME. AS CONVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING CAN BETTER TIME THE
ARRIVAL WITH FM AND TEMPO GROUPS.

LOOK FOR SCATTERED CU THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO OUR REGION.



&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 181930 RRA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT BRINGING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND
THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME MORE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
BRIEF COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...AND THESE WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE ISOLATED
STORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD AID IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLD FRONT. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND AS WELL. WILL GO HIGH CHANCE POPS SOUTH BEFORE
00Z WITH CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH.

AFTER 00Z...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH /AS STORMS ARE ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THE MOMENT/ AND CHANCE POPS SOUTH. WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH POPS THOUGH AS INSTABILITY WANES AFTER SUNSET. WILL BE DRY
ALL AREAS BEFORE 06Z.

THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 02Z.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS NUMBERS SINCE
DRIER AIR IS TAKING IS TIME COMING SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN...THEN ON SKY AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH WITH MOST FEATURES THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

THE NAM KEEPS A DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND
THEN GENERATES ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG IT AT TIMES DURING THE
SHORT TERM. HOWEVER THE NAM LOOKS TOO HIGH WITH ITS
DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. THUS BELIEVE
NAM/S CONVECTION IS ALSO OVERDONE...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGH
IN CONTROL. FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND WHICH
LOOKS GOOD GIVEN EXPECTED SKY COVER AND DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN OR BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY AS A FEW SHORT WAVES CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALLBLEND HANDLED THE PATTERN WELL SO DID NOT
DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 181800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1202 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE ARRIVING AT TIME OF MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING AND
MODELS INDICATE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION.
RAPID REFRESH MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DEVELOPING BY 19Z-21Z. SPC HAS CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS SO
WILL STICK WITH VCTS AND CB GROUPS FOR THE 19Z THROUGH 01Z
TIMEFRAME. AS CONVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING CAN BETTER TIME THE
ARRIVAL WITH FM AND TEMPO GROUPS.

LOOK FOR SCATTERED CU THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO OUR REGION.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 181930
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT BRINGING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND
THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME MORE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
BRIEF COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...AND THESE WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE ISOLATED
STORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD AID IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLD FRONT. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND AS WELL. WILL GO HIGH CHANCE POPS SOUTH BEFORE
00Z WITH CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH.

AFTER 00Z...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH /AS STORMS ARE ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THE MOMENT/ AND CHANCE POPS SOUTH. WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH POPS THOUGH AS INSTABILITY WANES AFTER SUNSET. WILL BE DRY
ALL AREAS BEFORE 06Z.

THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 02Z.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS NUMBERS SINCE
DRIER AIR IS TAKING IS TIME COMING SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN...THEN ON SKY AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH WITH MOST FEATURES THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

THE NAM KEEPS A DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND
THEN GENERATES ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG IT AT TIMES DURING THE
SHORT TERM. HOWEVER THE NAM LOOKS TOO HIGH WITH ITS
DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. THUS BELIEVE
NAM/S CONVECTION IS ALSO OVERDONE...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGH
IN CONTROL. FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND WHICH
LOOKS GOOD GIVEN EXPECTED SKY COVER AND DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN OR BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY AS A FEW SHORT WAVES CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALLBLEND HANDLED THE PATTERN WELL SO DID NOT
DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 181800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1202 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE ARRIVING AT TIME OF MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING AND
MODELS INDICATE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION.
RAPID REFRESH MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DEVELOPING BY 19Z-21Z. SPC HAS CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS SO
WILL STICK WITH VCTS AND CB GROUPS FOR THE 19Z THROUGH 01Z
TIMEFRAME. AS CONVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING CAN BETTER TIME THE
ARRIVAL WITH FM AND TEMPO GROUPS.

LOOK FOR SCATTERED CU THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO OUR REGION.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 181749
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
149 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY KEEPING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND
BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE
COULD START TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS ALLOWS LOW
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT VERY WARM HUMID AIR ARRIVES IN
TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BUT
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING TO THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...BUT THESE SHOWERS DO NOT LOOK TO LAST LONG
PER LATEST TRENDS. KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF AREA REMAINS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS PER STORM PREDICTION CENTER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FORECAST FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON POPS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE. MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD INSTABILITY WITH SFC BASED CAPES
OF 1000-2000 AND FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FRONTAL FORCING IS
FAIRLY WEAK...BUT A DECENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROVIDE THE EXTRA
LIFT NEEDED. SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST THOUGH AND THIS WILL BE
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE. THINK LOW END SEVERE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERNED MET NUMBERS ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN MAV.
NAM/S FEATURES ARE MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN OTHER
MODELS SO GENERALLY STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS THAT WERE
IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF/GEM ON FEATURES. BEST TIMING
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHEN
INSTABILITY PEAKS AND THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. FOR TEMPERATURES
GUIDANCE NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR SO USED AN AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN TEMPERATURES.
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON HOW FAST PRECIP CHANCES WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE NAM HOLDING ON TO PRECIP
LONGER THAN THE GFS. WITH THE SHORTWAVE JUST ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AT 0Z SO EVEN THOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THINK
SOME CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.
INSTABILITY WILL COME TO AN END FAIRLY QUICKLY THOUGH WITH END OF
SOLAR HEATING AND ADVECTION IN OF DRY AIR SO WILL GO DRY ACROSS THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY.

TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COLD DRY ADVECTION IN
PLACE FAVORED COOLER MAV NUMBERS. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY PREFERRED THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS THAT BETTER MATCH THE COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES
OF 11-13C. PREFERRED WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WEDS NIGHT WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND POSSIBLY SOME CIRRUS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
THURSDAY AND MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHED THE UPPER
RIDGING PATTERN WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN OR BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY AS A FEW SHORT WAVES CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALLBLEND HANDLED THE PATTERN WELL SO DID NOT
DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 181800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1202 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE ARRIVING AT TIME OF MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING
AND MODELS INDICATE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION.
RAPID REFRESH MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DEVELOPING BY 19Z-21Z. SPC HAS CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS SO
WILL STICK WITH VCTS AND CB GROUPS FOR THE 19Z THROUGH 01Z
TIMEFRAME. AS CONVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING CAN BETTER TIME THE
ARRIVAL WITH FM AND TEMPO GROUPS.

LOOK FOR SCATTERED CU THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO OUR REGION.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/50
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 181609
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1209 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY KEEPING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND
BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE
COULD START TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS ALLOWS LOW
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT VERY WARM HUMID AIR ARRIVES IN
TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BUT
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING TO THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...BUT THESE SHOWERS DO NOT LOOK TO LAST LONG
PER LATEST TRENDS. KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF AREA REMAINS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS PER STORM PREDICTION CENTER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FORECAST FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON POPS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE. MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD INSTABILITY WITH SFC BASED CAPES
OF 1000-2000 AND FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FRONTAL FORCING IS
FAIRLY WEAK...BUT A DECENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROVIDE THE EXTRA
LIFT NEEDED. SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST THOUGH AND THIS WILL BE
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE. THINK LOW END SEVERE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERNED MET NUMBERS ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN MAV.
NAM/S FEATURES ARE MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN OTHER
MODELS SO GENERALLY STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS THAT WERE
IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF/GEM ON FEATURES. BEST TIMING
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHEN
INSTABILITY PEAKS AND THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. FOR TEMPERATURES
GUIDANCE NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR SO USED AN AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN TEMPERATURES.
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON HOW FAST PRECIP CHANCES WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE NAM HOLDING ON TO PRECIP
LONGER THAN THE GFS. WITH THE SHORTWAVE JUST ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AT 0Z SO EVEN THOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THINK
SOME CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.
INSTABILITY WILL COME TO AN END FAIRLY QUICKLY THOUGH WITH END OF
SOLAR HEATING AND ADVECTION IN OF DRY AIR SO WILL GO DRY ACROSS THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY.

TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COLD DRY ADVECTION IN
PLACE FAVORED COOLER MAV NUMBERS. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY PREFERRED THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS THAT BETTER MATCH THE COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES
OF 11-13C. PREFERRED WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WEDS NIGHT WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND POSSIBLY SOME CIRRUS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
THURSDAY AND MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHED THE UPPER
RIDGING PATTERN WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS
ITS AXES MOVES EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLY ON
TO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY BY DAY 7.   MODELS INDICATE A
COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL COME OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WITH ONE MOVING BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND A STRONGER
ONE TOWARDS THE END OF DAY 7.   CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING IS LOW...
SO ONLY MADE SLIGHT CHANGES FROM ALL BLEND POPS.

MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO +18 TO +20
CELSIUS OVER THE WEEKEND AND COOL JUST SLIGHTLY DAY 7 WITH THE
SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE.  RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
IN OVER WEEKEND THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE...ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO ALL BLEND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 181800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1202 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE ARRIVING AT TIME OF MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING
AND MODELS INDICATE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION.
RAPID REFRESH MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DEVELOPING BY 19Z-21Z. SPC HAS CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS SO
WILL STICK WITH VCTS AND CB GROUPS FOR THE 19Z THROUGH 01Z
TIMEFRAME. AS CONVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING CAN BETTER TIME THE
ARRIVAL WITH FM AND TEMPO GROUPS.

LOOK FOR SCATTERED CU THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/50
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 181421
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1021 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY KEEPING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND
BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE
COULD START TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS ALLOWS LOW
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT VERY WARM HUMID AIR ARRIVES IN
TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BUT
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING TO THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...BUT THESE SHOWERS DO NOT LOOK TO LAST LONG
PER LATEST TRENDS. KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF AREA REMAINS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS PER STORM PREDICTION CENTER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FORECAST FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON POPS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE. MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD INSTABILITY WITH SFC BASED CAPES
OF 1000-2000 AND FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FRONTAL FORCING IS
FAIRLY WEAK...BUT A DECENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROVIDE THE EXTRA
LIFT NEEDED. SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST THOUGH AND THIS WILL BE
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE. THINK LOW END SEVERE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERNED MET NUMBERS ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN MAV.
NAM/S FEATURES ARE MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN OTHER
MODELS SO GENERALLY STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS THAT WERE
IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF/GEM ON FEATURES. BEST TIMING
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHEN
INSTABILITY PEAKS AND THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. FOR TEMPERATURES
GUIDANCE NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR SO USED AN AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN TEMPERATURES.
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON HOW FAST PRECIP CHANCES WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE NAM HOLDING ON TO PRECIP
LONGER THAN THE GFS. WITH THE SHORTWAVE JUST ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AT 0Z SO EVEN THOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THINK
SOME CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.
INSTABILITY WILL COME TO AN END FAIRLY QUICKLY THOUGH WITH END OF
SOLAR HEATING AND ADVECTION IN OF DRY AIR SO WILL GO DRY ACROSS THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY.

TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COLD DRY ADVECTION IN
PLACE FAVORED COOLER MAV NUMBERS. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY PREFERRED THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS THAT BETTER MATCH THE COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES
OF 11-13C. PREFERRED WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WEDS NIGHT WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND POSSIBLY SOME CIRRUS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
THURSDAY AND MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHED THE UPPER
RIDGING PATTERN WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS
ITS AXES MOVES EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLY ON
TO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY BY DAY 7.   MODELS INDICATE A
COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL COME OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WITH ONE MOVING BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND A STRONGER
ONE TOWARDS THE END OF DAY 7.   CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING IS LOW...
SO ONLY MADE SLIGHT CHANGES FROM ALL BLEND POPS.

MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO +18 TO +20
CELSIUS OVER THE WEEKEND AND COOL JUST SLIGHTLY DAY 7 WITH THE
SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE.  RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
IN OVER WEEKEND THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE...ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO ALL BLEND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 181200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

1430Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES ATTM. PREV DISC FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS VCNTY KBMG AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SCATTERED CU TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.

AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEAST IOWA WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY THIS EVENING.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ARRIVING AT TIME
OF MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING AND MODELS INDICATE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION. RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING BY 19Z-20Z.  SPC HAS CENTRAL
INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

WILL MENTION VCTS IN TAFS FROM ABOUT 19Z-01Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...
LOOK FOR SCATTERED CU THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO OUR REGION.

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH UP TO 10 KNOTS BY MIDDAY AND NORTHEAST
3 TO 7 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/50
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...SMF/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 181330
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
930 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY KEEPING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND
BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE
COULD START TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS ALLOWS LOW
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT VERY WARM HUMID AIR ARRIVES IN
TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BUT
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING TO THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...BUT THESE SHOWERS DO NOT LOOK TO LAST LONG
PER LATEST TRENDS. KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF AREA REMAINS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS PER STORM PREDICTION CENTER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FORECAST FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON POPS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE. MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD INSTABILITY WITH SFC BASED CAPES
OF 1000-2000 AND FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FRONTAL FORCING IS
FAIRLY WEAK...BUT A DECENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROVIDE THE EXTRA
LIFT NEEDED. SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST THOUGH AND THIS WILL BE
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE. THINK LOW END SEVERE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERNED MET NUMBERS ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN MAV.
NAM/S FEATURES ARE MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN OTHER
MODELS SO GENERALLY STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS THAT WERE
IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF/GEM ON FEATURES. BEST TIMING
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHEN
INSTABILITY PEAKS AND THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. FOR TEMPERATURES
GUIDANCE NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR SO USED AN AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN TEMPERATURES.
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON HOW FAST PRECIP CHANCES WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE NAM HOLDING ON TO PRECIP
LONGER THAN THE GFS. WITH THE SHORTWAVE JUST ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AT 0Z SO EVEN THOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THINK
SOME CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.
INSTABILITY WILL COME TO AN END FAIRLY QUICKLY THOUGH WITH END OF
SOLAR HEATING AND ADVECTION IN OF DRY AIR SO WILL GO DRY ACROSS THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY.

TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COLD DRY ADVECTION IN
PLACE FAVORED COOLER MAV NUMBERS. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY PREFERRED THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS THAT BETTER MATCH THE COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES
OF 11-13C. PREFERRED WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WEDS NIGHT WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND POSSIBLY SOME CIRRUS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
THURSDAY AND MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHED THE UPPER
RIDGING PATTERN WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS
ITS AXES MOVES EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLY ON
TO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY BY DAY 7.   MODELS INDICATE A
COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL COME OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WITH ONE MOVING BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND A STRONGER
ONE TOWARDS THE END OF DAY 7.   CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING IS LOW...
SO ONLY MADE SLIGHT CHANGES FROM ALL BLEND POPS.

MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO +18 TO +20
CELSIUS OVER THE WEEKEND AND COOL JUST SLIGHTLY DAY 7 WITH THE
SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE.  RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
IN OVER WEEKEND THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE...ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO ALL BLEND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS VCNTY KBMG AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SCATTERED CU TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.

AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEAST IOWA WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY THIS EVENING.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ARRIVING AT TIME
OF MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING AND MODELS INDICATE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION. RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING BY 19Z-20Z.  SPC HAS CENTRAL
INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

WILL MENTION VCTS IN TAFS FROM ABOUT 19Z-01Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...
LOOK FOR SCATTERED CU THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO OUR REGION.

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH UP TO 10 KNOTS BY MIDDAY AND NORTHEAST
3 TO 7 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/50
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 181040
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
640 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY KEEPING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND
BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE
COULD START TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS ALLOWS LOW
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT VERY WARM HUMID AIR ARRIVES IN
TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FORECAST FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON POPS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY ALONG WITH
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE. MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD INSTABILITY WITH SFC
BASED CAPES OF 1000-2000 AND FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
FRONTAL FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK...BUT A DECENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE
SHOULD PROVIDE THE EXTRA LIFT NEEDED. SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
THOUGH AND THIS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE.
THINK LOW END SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERNED MET NUMBERS ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN MAV.
NAM/S FEATURES ARE MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN OTHER
MODELS SO GENERALLY STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS THAT WERE
IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF/GEM ON FEATURES. BEST TIMING
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHEN
INSTABILITY PEAKS AND THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. FOR TEMPERATURES
GUIDANCE NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR SO USED AN AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN TEMPERATURES.
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON HOW FAST PRECIP CHANCES WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE NAM HOLDING ON TO PRECIP
LONGER THAN THE GFS. WITH THE SHORTWAVE JUST ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AT 0Z SO EVEN THOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THINK
SOME CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.
INSTABILITY WILL COME TO AN END FAIRLY QUICKLY THOUGH WITH END OF
SOLAR HEATING AND ADVECTION IN OF DRY AIR SO WILL GO DRY ACROSS THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY.

TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COLD DRY ADVECTION IN
PLACE FAVORED COOLER MAV NUMBERS. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY PREFERRED THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS THAT BETTER MATCH THE COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES
OF 11-13C. PREFERRED WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WEDS NIGHT WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND POSSIBLY SOME CIRRUS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
THURSDAY AND MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHED THE UPPER
RIDGING PATTERN WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS
ITS AXES MOVES EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLY ON
TO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY BY DAY 7.   MODELS INDICATE A
COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL COME OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WITH ONE MOVING BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND A STRONGER
ONE TOWARDS THE END OF DAY 7.   CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING IS LOW...
SO ONLY MADE SLIGHT CHANGES FROM ALL BLEND POPS.

MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO +18 TO +20
CELSIUS OVER THE WEEKEND AND COOL JUST SLIGHTLY DAY 7 WITH THE
SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE.  RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
IN OVER WEEKEND THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE...ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO ALL BLEND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS VCNTY KBMG AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SCATTERED CU TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.

AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEAST IOWA WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY THIS EVENING.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ARRIVING AT TIME
OF MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING AND MODELS INDICATE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION. RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING BY 19Z-20Z.  SPC HAS CENTRAL
INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

WILL MENTION VCTS IN TAFS FROM ABOUT 19Z-01Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...
LOOK FOR SCATTERED CU THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO OUR REGION.

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH UP TO 10 KNOTS BY MIDDAY AND NORTHEAST
3 TO 7 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 180814
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
414 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY KEEPING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND
BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE
COULD START TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS ALLOWS LOW
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT VERY WARM HUMID AIR ARRIVES IN
TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FORECAST FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON POPS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY ALONG WITH
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE. MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD INSTABILITY WITH SFC
BASED CAPES OF 1000-2000 AND FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
FRONTAL FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK...BUT A DECENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE
SHOULD PROVIDE THE EXTRA LIFT NEEDED. SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
THOUGH AND THIS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE.
THINK LOW END SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERNED MET NUMBERS ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN MAV.
NAM/S FEATURES ARE MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN OTHER
MODELS SO GENERALLY STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS THAT WERE
IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF/GEM ON FEATURES. BEST TIMING
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHEN
INSTABILITY PEAKS AND THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. FOR TEMPERATURES
GUIDANCE NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR SO USED AN AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN TEMPERATURES.
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON HOW FAST PRECIP CHANCES WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE NAM HOLDING ON TO PRECIP
LONGER THAN THE GFS. WITH THE SHORTWAVE JUST ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AT 0Z SO EVEN THOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THINK
SOME CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.
INSTABILITY WILL COME TO AN END FAIRLY QUICKLY THOUGH WITH END OF
SOLAR HEATING AND ADVECTION IN OF DRY AIR SO WILL GO DRY ACROSS THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY.

TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COLD DRY ADVECTION IN
PLACE FAVORED COOLER MAV NUMBERS. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY PREFERRED THE COOLER
MET NUMBERS THAT BETTER MATCH THE COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF
11-13C. PREFERRED WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WEDS NIGHT WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND POSSIBLY SOME CIRRUS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
THURSDAY AND MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHED THE UPPER
RIDGING PATTERN WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS
ITS AXES MOVES EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLY ON
TO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY BY DAY 7.   MODELS INDICATE A
COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL COME OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WITH ONE MOVING BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND A STRONGER
ONE TOWARDS THE END OF DAY 7.   CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING IS LOW...
SO ONLY MADE SLIGHT CHANGES FROM ALL BLEND POPS.

MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO +18 TO +20
CELSIUS OVER THE WEEKEND AND COOL JUST SLIGHTLY DAY 7 WITH THE
SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE.  RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
IN OVER WEEKEND THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE...ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO ALL BLEND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR.

MOST ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIED OFF WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING...BUT REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO OVERNIGHT. STILL...THIS IS TOO LOW PROBABILITY TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PREVENT A RETURN
OF IFR CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. WILL CARRY MVFR FOG AT
THE OUTLYING SITES OVERNIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW BUT TOO LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A MENTION WITH THIS PACKAGE.

WINDS WILL BE 10KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 180507
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
100 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM CANADA. THUS AFTER SOME LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS IN
THE MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK.

ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH DUMPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL HELP
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK AND AS THE
PATTERN PROGRESSES...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION BY
LATE WEEK. COOL DRY NORTHEAST AND EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE SOUTH LATE WEEK RESULTING IN TEMPERATURE CLIMB FROM LOW/MID
80S WEDNESDAY TOWARD 90 BY WEEKS END.

WEEK WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW AND INCREASED HUMIDITY BRINGS A
RETURN OF CHANCES FOR STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 957 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH HAS BEEN DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
SO BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS. AIR MASS OVER THE AREA REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...SO POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXISTS
ALONG ANY POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COMING OUT OF CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTH.

CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM RATHER EXTENSIVE...SO WILL BEEF UP THE CLOUD
WORDING FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED BY THIS
TIME...SO LOWS TONIGHT STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AND HOW LONG
IT WILL LAST. NAM MOS TOO DRY TONIGHT WHILE MAV MOS MORE ON TARGET
AND REALLY EXPECTING DIURNAL TREND EXCEPT FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE AND INFLUENCE OF CIRRUS OUTFLOW
ON SURFACE HEATING IS HELPING TO SET UP BOUNDARIES FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON IN CENTRAL INDIANA.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHWEST THROUGH BOOTHEEL MISSOURI AND BEYOND HAS PROVIDED BETTER
FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WEAK STEERING WINDS RESULTING
IN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

AS REMNANTS OF OKLAHOMA MCS AND SURFACE INDUCED CONVECTION IN THE
BOOTHEEL MOVE ENE...OUR HIGHEST THREATS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE
IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ALL AREAS HOWEVER WILL SEE MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

CURRENT LOW TEMP FORECASTS APPEAR ON TARGET AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER CONVECTION WILL OCCUR BEFORE DRIER
AIR BUILDS IN. WILL LEAN TOWARD HIGHER POPS IN NAM MODEL. ALL
MODELS SHOW UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
AND INTO INDIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS SHOW A PRETTY
DECENT TROUGH WITH THIS FEATURE BUT QPF VARIES. DESPITE SURFACE
SHOWING MINIMAL CONVERGENCE DO EXPECT SURFACE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY
ACTING WITH MODERATE WARMTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH COMING IN DURING PEAK HEATING TO AID IN SCATTERED
STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL...WILL
KEEP THESE POPS HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. AS TROUGH
PUSHES EAST AND HEATING DIMINISHES TUESDAY EVENING...RAIN THREAT
WILL EXIT EAST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE EVENING. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL PROVIDE A DRY SPELL THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

GOING TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WERE PRETTY GOOD AND HAVE BLENDED
THOSE WITH COMBINATION OF MOS GUIDANCES. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS
COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN AND BREAK DOWN AS A FEW SHORT WAVES CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION AND BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALLBLEND HANDLED
THE PATTERN WELL SO DID NOT DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR.

MOST ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIED OFF WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING...BUT REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO OVERNIGHT. STILL...THIS IS TOO LOW PROBABILITY TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PREVENT A RETURN
OF IFR CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. WILL CARRY MVFR FOG AT
THE OUTLYING SITES OVERNIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW BUT TOO LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A MENTION WITH THIS PACKAGE.

WINDS WILL BE 10KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/JAS
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 180230
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM CANADA. THUS AFTER SOME LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS IN
THE MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK.

ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH DUMPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL HELP
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK AND AS THE
PATTERN PROGRESSES...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION BY
LATE WEEK. COOL DRY NORTHEAST AND EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE SOUTH LATE WEEK RESULTING IN TEMPERATURE CLIMB FROM LOW/MID
80S WEDNESDAY TOWARD 90 BY WEEKS END.

WEEK WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW AND INCREASED HUMIDITY BRINGS A
RETURN OF CHANCES FOR STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 957 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH HAS BEEN DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
SO BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS. AIR MASS OVER THE AREA REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...SO POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXISTS
ALONG ANY POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COMING OUT OF CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTH.

CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM RATHER EXTENSIVE...SO WILL BEEF UP THE CLOUD
WORDING FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED BY THIS
TIME...SO LOWS TONIGHT STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AND HOW LONG
IT WILL LAST. NAM MOS TOO DRY TONIGHT WHILE MAV MOS MORE ON TARGET
AND REALLY EXPECTING DIURNAL TREND EXCEPT FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE AND INFLUENCE OF CIRRUS OUTFLOW
ON SURFACE HEATING IS HELPING TO SET UP BOUNDARIES FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON IN CENTRAL INDIANA.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHWEST THROUGH BOOTHEEL MISSOURI AND BEYOND HAS PROVIDED BETTER
FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WEAK STEERING WINDS RESULTING
IN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

AS REMNANTS OF OKLAHOMA MCS AND SURFACE INDUCED CONVECTION IN THE
BOOTHEEL MOVE ENE...OUR HIGHEST THREATS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE
IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ALL AREAS HOWEVER WILL SEE MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

CURRENT LOW TEMP FORECASTS APPEAR ON TARGET AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER CONVECTION WILL OCCUR BEFORE DRIER
AIR BUILDS IN. WILL LEAN TOWARD HIGHER POPS IN NAM MODEL. ALL
MODELS SHOW UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
AND INTO INDIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS SHOW A PRETTY
DECENT TROUGH WITH THIS FEATURE BUT QPF VARIES. DESPITE SURFACE
SHOWING MINIMAL CONVERGENCE DO EXPECT SURFACE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY
ACTING WITH MODERATE WARMTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH COMING IN DURING PEAK HEATING TO AID IN SCATTERED
STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL...WILL
KEEP THESE POPS HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. AS TROUGH
PUSHES EAST AND HEATING DIMINISHES TUESDAY EVENING...RAIN THREAT
WILL EXIT EAST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE EVENING. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL PROVIDE A DRY SPELL THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

GOING TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WERE PRETTY GOOD AND HAVE BLENDED
THOSE WITH COMBINATION OF MOS GUIDANCES. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS
COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN AND BREAK DOWN AS A FEW SHORT WAVES CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION AND BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALLBLEND HANDLED
THE PATTERN WELL SO DID NOT DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/03Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

NO CHANGES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION AT BMG AS STORMS HAVE BEEN
VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD PREVENT A
RETURN OF IFR CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. WILL CARRY MVFR
FOG ALL SITES OVERNIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW BUT TOO LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A MENTION WITH THIS PACKAGE.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/JAS
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 180158
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
957 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM CANADA. THUS AFTER SOME LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS IN
THE MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK.

ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH DUMPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL HELP
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK AND AS THE
PATTERN PROGRESSES...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION BY
LATE WEEK. COOL DRY NORTHEAST AND EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE SOUTH LATE WEEK RESULTING IN TEMPERATURE CLIMB FROM LOW/MID
80S WEDNESDAY TOWARD 90 BY WEEKS END.

WEEK WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW AND INCREASED HUMIDITY BRINGS A
RETURN OF CHANCES FOR STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 957 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH HAS BEEN DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
SO BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS. AIR MASS OVER THE AREA REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...SO POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXISTS
ALONG ANY POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COMING OUT OF CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTH.

CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM RATHER EXTENSIVE...SO WILL BEEF UP THE CLOUD
WORDING FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED BY THIS
TIME...SO LOWS TONIGHT STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AND HOW LONG
IT WILL LAST. NAM MOS TOO DRY TONIGHT WHILE MAV MOS MORE ON TARGET
AND REALLY EXPECTING DIURNAL TREND EXCEPT FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE AND INFLUENCE OF CIRRUS OUTFLOW
ON SURFACE HEATING IS HELPING TO SET UP BOUNDARIES FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON IN CENTRAL INDIANA.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHWEST THROUGH BOOTHEEL MISSOURI AND BEYOND HAS PROVIDED BETTER
FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WEAK STEERING WINDS RESULTING
IN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

AS REMNANTS OF OKLAHOMA MCS AND SURFACE INDUCED CONVECTION IN THE
BOOTHEEL MOVE ENE...OUR HIGHEST THREATS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE
IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ALL AREAS HOWEVER WILL SEE MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

CURRENT LOW TEMP FORECASTS APPEAR ON TARGET AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER CONVECTION WILL OCCUR BEFORE DRIER
AIR BUILDS IN. WILL LEAN TOWARD HIGHER POPS IN NAM MODEL. ALL
MODELS SHOW UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
AND INTO INDIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS SHOW A PRETTY
DECENT TROUGH WITH THIS FEATURE BUT QPF VARIES. DESPITE SURFACE
SHOWING MINIMAL CONVERGENCE DO EXPECT SURFACE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY
ACTING WITH MODERATE WARMTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH COMING IN DURING PEAK HEATING TO AID IN SCATTERED
STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL...WILL
KEEP THESE POPS HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. AS TROUGH
PUSHES EAST AND HEATING DIMINISHES TUESDAY EVENING...RAIN THREAT
WILL EXIT EAST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE EVENING. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL PROVIDE A DRY SPELL THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

GOING TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WERE PRETTY GOOD AND HAVE BLENDED
THOSE WITH COMBINATION OF MOS GUIDANCES. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS
COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN AND BREAK DOWN AS A FEW SHORT WAVES CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION AND BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALLBLEND HANDLED
THE PATTERN WELL SO DID NOT DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION AT BMG AS STORMS HAVE BEEN
VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD PREVENT A
RETURN OF IFR CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. WILL CARRY MVFR
FOG ALL SITES OVERNIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW BUT TOO LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A MENTION WITH THIS PACKAGE.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/JAS
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 172305
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
705 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM CANADA. THUS AFTER SOME LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS IN
THE MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK.

ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH DUMPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL HELP
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK AND AS THE
PATTERN PROGRESSES...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION BY
LATE WEEK. COOL DRY NORTHEAST AND EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE SOUTH LATE WEEK RESULTING IN TEMPERATURE CLIMB FROM LOW/MID
80S WEDNESDAY TOWARD 90 BY WEEKS END.

WEEK WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW AND INCREASED HUMIDITY BRINGS A
RETURN OF CHANCES FOR STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AND HOW LONG
IT WILL LAST. NAM MOS TOO DRY TONIGHT WHILE MAV MOS MORE ON TARGET
AND REALLY EXPECTING DIURNAL TREND EXCEPT FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE AND INFLUENCE OF CIRRUS OUTFLOW
ON SURFACE HEATING IS HELPING TO SET UP BOUNDARIES FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON IN CENTRAL INDIANA.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHWEST THROUGH BOOTHEEL MISSOURI AND BEYOND HAS PROVIDED BETTER
FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WEAK STEERING WINDS RESULTING
IN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

AS REMNANTS OF OKLAHOMA MCS AND SURFACE INDUCED CONVECTION IN THE
BOOTHEEL MOVE ENE...OUR HIGHEST THREATS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE
IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ALL AREAS HOWEVER WILL SEE MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

CURRENT LOW TEMP FORECASTS APPEAR ON TARGET AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER CONVECTION WILL OCCUR BEFORE DRIER
AIR BUILDS IN. WILL LEAN TOWARD HIGHER POPS IN NAM MODEL. ALL
MODELS SHOW UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
AND INTO INDIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS SHOW A PRETTY
DECENT TROUGH WITH THIS FEATURE BUT QPF VARIES. DESPITE SURFACE
SHOWING MINIMAL CONVERGENCE DO EXPECT SURFACE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY
ACTING WITH MODERATE WARMTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH COMING IN DURING PEAK HEATING TO AID IN SCATTERED
STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL...WILL
KEEP THESE POPS HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. AS TROUGH
PUSHES EAST AND HEATING DIMINISHES TUESDAY EVENING...RAIN THREAT
WILL EXIT EAST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE EVENING. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL PROVIDE A DRY SPELL THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

GOING TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WERE PRETTY GOOD AND HAVE BLENDED
THOSE WITH COMBINATION OF MOS GUIDANCES. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS
COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN AND BREAK DOWN AS A FEW SHORT WAVES CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION AND BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALLBLEND HANDLED
THE PATTERN WELL SO DID NOT DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION AT BMG AS STORMS HAVE BEEN
VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD PREVENT A
RETURN OF IFR CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. WILL CARRY MVFR
FOG ALL SITES OVERNIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW BUT TOO LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A MENTION WITH THIS PACKAGE.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 172028
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM CANADA. THUS AFTER SOME LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS IN
THE MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK.

ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH DUMPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL HELP
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK AND AS THE
PATTERN PROGRESSES...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION BY
LATE WEEK. COOL DRY NORTHEAST AND EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE SOUTH LATE WEEK RESULTING IN TEMPERATURE CLIMB FROM LOW/MID
80S WEDNESDAY TOWARD 90 BY WEEKS END.

WEEK WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW AND INCREASED HUMIDITY BRINGS A
RETURN OF CHANCES FOR STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AND HOW LONG
IT WILL LAST. NAM MOS TOO DRY TONIGHT WHILE MAV MOS MORE ON TARGET
AND REALLY EXPECTING DIURNAL TREND EXCEPT FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE AND INFLUENCE OF CIRRUS OUTFLOW
ON SURFACE HEATING IS HELPING TO SET UP BOUNDARIES FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON IN CENTRAL INDIANA.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHWEST THROUGH BOOTHEEL MISSOURI AND BEYOND HAS PROVIDED BETTER
FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WEAK STEERING WINDS RESULTING
IN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

AS REMNANTS OF OKLAHOMA MCS AND SURFACE INDUCED CONVECTION IN THE
BOOTHEEL MOVE ENE...OUR HIGHEST THREATS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE
IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ALL AREAS HOWEVER WILL SEE MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

CURRENT LOW TEMP FORECASTS APPEAR ON TARGET AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER CONVECTION WILL OCCUR BEFORE DRIER
AIR BUILDS IN. WILL LEAN TOWARD HIGHER POPS IN NAM MODEL. ALL
MODELS SHOW UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
AND INTO INDIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS SHOW A PRETTY
DECENT TROUGH WITH THIS FEATURE BUT QPF VARIES. DESPITE SURFACE
SHOWING MINIMAL CONVERGENCE DO EXPECT SURFACE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY
ACTING WITH MODERATE WARMTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH COMING IN DURING PEAK HEATING TO AID IN SCATTERED
STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL...WILL
KEEP THESE POPS HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. AS TROUGH
PUSHES EAST AND HEATING DIMINISHES TUESDAY EVENING...RAIN THREAT
WILL EXIT EAST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE EVENING. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL PROVIDE A DRY SPELL THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

GOING TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WERE PRETTY GOOD AND HAVE BLENDED
THOSE WITH COMBINATION OF MOS GUIDANCES. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS
COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN AND BREAK DOWN AS A FEW SHORT WAVES CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION AND BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALLBLEND HANDLED
THE PATTERN WELL SO DID NOT DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/21Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

CHANGED WINDS TO VARIABLE AT IND TO MATCH OBS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 1224 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME SCT TO BKN CU CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING MFVR VISIBILITIES TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN FOG MIXING OUT AROUND 14Z TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 171930
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
330 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM CANADA. THUS AFTER SOME LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS IN
THE MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK.

ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH DUMPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL HELP
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK AND AS THE
PATTERN PROGRESSES...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION BY
LATE WEEK. COOL DRY NORTHEAST AND EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE SOUTH LATE WEEK RESULTING IN TEMPERATURE CLIMB FROM LOW/MID
80S WEDNESDAY TOWARD 90 BY WEEKS END.

WEEK WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW AND INCREASED HUMIDITY BRINGS A
RETURN OF CHANCES FOR STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AND HOW LONG
IT WILL LAST. NAM MOS TOO DRY TONIGHT WHILE MAV MOS MORE ON TARGET
AND REALLY EXPECTING DIURNAL TREND EXCEPT FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE AND INFLUENCE OF CIRRUS OUTFLOW
ON SURFACE HEATING IS HELPING TO SET UP BOUNDARIES FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON IN CENTRAL INDIANA.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHWEST THROUGH BOOTHEEL MISSOURI AND BEYOND HAS PROVIDED BETTER
FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WEAK STEERING WINDS RESULTING
IN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

AS REMNANTS OF OKLAHOMA MCS AND SURFACE INDUCED CONVECTION IN THE
BOOTHEEL MOVE ENE...OUR HIGHEST THREATS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE
IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ALL AREAS HOWEVER WILL SEE MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

CURRENT LOW TEMP FORECASTS APPEAR ON TARGET AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER CONVECTION WILL OCCUR BEFORE DRIER
AIR BUILDS IN. WILL LEAN TOWARD HIGHER POPS IN NAM MODEL. ALL
MODELS SHOW UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
AND INTO INDIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS SHOW A PRETTY
DECENT TROUGH WITH THIS FEATURE BUT QPF VARIES. DESPITE SURFACE
SHOWING MINIMAL CONVERGENCE DO EXPECT SURFACE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY
ACTING WITH MODERATE WARMTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH COMING IN DURING PEAK HEATING TO AID IN SCATTERED
STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL...WILL
KEEP THESE POPS HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. AS TROUGH
PUSHES EAST AND HEATING DIMINISHES TUESDAY EVENING...RAIN THREAT
WILL EXIT EAST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE EVENING. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL PROVIDE A DRY SPELL THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

GOING TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WERE PRETTY GOOD AND HAVE BLENDED
THOSE WITH COMBINATION OF MOS GUIDANCES. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS
COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN AND BREAK DOWN AS A FEW SHORT WAVES CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION AND BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALLBLEND HANDLED
THE PATTERN WELL SO DID NOT DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1224 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME SCT TO BKN CU CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING MFVR VISIBILITIES TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN FOG MIXING OUT AROUND 14Z TUESDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 171800
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
200 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WAS OVER THE ROCKIES.  WATER VAPOR IR SATELLITE INDICATED AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AND MOST AREAS TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THERE WILL BE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER OVER
THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST BUILDS
TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.  A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER SYSTEMS MAY PRODUCE
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 938 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEGUN LIFTING INTO STRATUS DECKS AND
SHOULD CONTINUE BURN TOWARD A SCATTERED CUMULUS SKY BY LATE
MORNING. FEW MODERATE CUMULUS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES OUTSIDE OF
FOG THIS MORNING HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND LESS NUMEROUS IN
THE LAST HOUR. ALSO BY LATE MORNING...CONTINUED SPREAD OF CIRRUS
FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS STORMS SHOULD KEEP CUMULUS FROM GOING BROKEN.

OTHER THAN BEING SOMEWHAT BEHIND ON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE WE
SHOULD CATCH UP BY LATE MORNING AND STILL EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER ONE MOVING INTO OUR
REGION LATE TUESDAY.  ON THIS RUN MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE AND A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE 2ND
ONE.  AS A RESULT WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND
INCREASE THEM A LITTLE ON TUESDAY.

THE NAM IS QUITE A BIT WETTER WITH TUESDAY SYSTEM AS THEY INDICATE
LOTS OF POOLING OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ALL MODELS
INDICATE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES QUITE UNSTABLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LINGER INTO OUR SOUTH  TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY AND
COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THE MET MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM AND WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN AND BREAK DOWN AS A FEW SHORT WAVES CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION AND BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALLBLEND HANDLED
THE PATTERN WELL SO DID NOT DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1224 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME SCT TO BKN CU CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING MFVR VISIBILITIES TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN FOG MIXING OUT AROUND 14Z TUESDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 171627
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1227 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WAS OVER THE ROCKIES.  WATER VAPOR IR SATELLITE INDICATED AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AND MOST AREAS TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THERE WILL BE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER OVER
THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST BUILDS
TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.  A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER SYSTEMS MAY PRODUCE
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 938 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEGUN LIFTING INTO STRATUS DECKS AND
SHOULD CONTINUE BURN TOWARD A SCATTERED CUMULUS SKY BY LATE
MORNING. FEW MODERATE CUMULUS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES OUTSIDE OF
FOG THIS MORNING HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND LESS NUMEROUS IN
THE LAST HOUR. ALSO BY LATE MORNING...CONTINUED SPREAD OF CIRRUS
FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS STORMS SHOULD KEEP CUMULUS FROM GOING BROKEN.

OTHER THAN BEING SOMEWHAT BEHIND ON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE WE
SHOULD CATCH UP BY LATE MORNING AND STILL EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER ONE MOVING INTO OUR
REGION LATE TUESDAY.  ON THIS RUN MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE AND A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE 2ND
ONE.  AS A RESULT WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND
INCREASE THEM A LITTLE ON TUESDAY.

THE NAM IS QUITE A BIT WETTER WITH TUESDAY SYSTEM AS THEY INDICATE
LOTS OF POOLING OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ALL MODELS
INDICATE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES QUITE UNSTABLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LINGER INTO OUR SOUTH  TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY AND
COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THE MET MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM AND WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
LONG TERM...BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR
THE MOST PART DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES
COULD MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SNEAK INTO THE FORECAST. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY BUT THEN A CHANCE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES. ALLBLEND HANDLED THE PATTERN WELL SO DID
NOT DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1224 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME SCT TO BKN CU CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING MFVR VISIBILITIES TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN FOG MIXING OUT AROUND 14Z TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 171428
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1028 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WAS OVER THE ROCKIES.  WATER VAPOR IR SATELLITE INDICATED AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AND MOST AREAS TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THERE WILL BE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER OVER
THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST BUILDS
TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.  A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER SYSTEMS MAY PRODUCE
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 938 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEGUN LIFTING INTO STRATUS DECKS AND
SHOULD CONTINUE BURN TOWARD A SCATTERED CUMULUS SKY BY LATE
MORNING. FEW MODERATE CUMULUS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES OUTSIDE OF
FOG THIS MORNING HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND LESS NUMEROUS IN
THE LAST HOUR. ALSO BY LATE MORNING...CONTINUED SPREAD OF CIRRUS
FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS STORMS SHOULD KEEP CUMULUS FROM GOING BROKEN.

OTHER THAN BEING SOMEWHAT BEHIND ON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE WE
SHOULD CATCH UP BY LATE MORNING AND STILL EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER ONE MOVING INTO OUR
REGION LATE TUESDAY.  ON THIS RUN MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE AND A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE 2ND
ONE.  AS A RESULT WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND
INCREASE THEM A LITTLE ON TUESDAY.

THE NAM IS QUITE A BIT WETTER WITH TUESDAY SYSTEM AS THEY INDICATE
LOTS OF POOLING OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ALL MODELS
INDICATE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES QUITE UNSTABLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LINGER INTO OUR SOUTH  TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY AND
COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THE MET MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM AND WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
LONG TERM...BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR
THE MOST PART DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES
COULD MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SNEAK INTO THE FORECAST. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY BUT THEN A CHANCE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES. ALLBLEND HANDLED THE PATTERN WELL SO DID
NOT DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1024 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

1430Z UPDATE...ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR IND BACK TO MFVR AND
EVEN VFR. IND SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR AND WILL
JOIN THE REST OF THE TAFS IN VFR CONDITIONS BY 1530-1600Z.
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SITES SHOULD MIX OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS WITH HELP FROM THE SUN. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. EXPECT TO SEE SOME SCT TO BKN CU DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...SMF/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

000
FXUS63 KIND 171342
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
942 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WAS OVER THE ROCKIES.  WATER VAPOR IR SATELLITE INDICATED AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AND MOST AREAS TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THERE WILL BE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER OVER
THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST BUILDS
TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.  A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER SYSTEMS MAY PRODUCE
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 938 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEGUN LIFTING INTO STRATUS DECKS AND
SHOULD CONTINUE BURN TOWARD A SCATTERED CUMULUS SKY BY LATE
MORNING. FEW MODERATE CUMULUS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES OUTSIDE OF
FOG THIS MORNING HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND LESS NUMEROUS IN
THE LAST HOUR. ALSO BY LATE MORNING...CONTINUED SPREAD OF CIRRUS
FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS STORMS SHOULD KEEP CUMULUS FROM GOING BROKEN.

OTHER THAN BEING SOMEWHAT BEHIND ON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE WE
SHOULD CATCH UP BY LATE MORNING AND STILL EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER ONE MOVING INTO OUR
REGION LATE TUESDAY.  ON THIS RUN MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE AND A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE 2ND
ONE.  AS A RESULT WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND
INCREASE THEM A LITTLE ON TUESDAY.

THE NAM IS QUITE A BIT WETTER WITH TUESDAY SYSTEM AS THEY INDICATE
LOTS OF POOLING OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ALL MODELS
INDICATE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES QUITE UNSTABLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LINGER INTO OUR SOUTH  TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY AND
COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THE MET MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM AND WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
LONG TERM...BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR
THE MOST PART DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES
COULD MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SNEAK INTO THE FORECAST. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY BUT THEN A CHANCE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES. ALLBLEND HANDLED THE PATTERN WELL SO DID
NOT DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SITES SHOULD MIX OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS WITH HELP FROM THE SUN. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. EXPECT TO SEE SOME SCT TO BKN CU DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

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