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000
FXUS63 KIND 181631
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE OVER OHIO LATE THIS MORNING. AN UPPER
LOW WAS FOUND OVER COLORADO...WITH A STREAM OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE OF THE ONGOING SITUATION. HIGH
CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STREAMS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 70S APPEAR QUITE REACHABLE.
THUS WILL EXPECT A FEW CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH 9Z WITH
JUST CIRRUS AND PERHAPS SOME DIURNAL CU. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 10 KNOTS OR MORE. OF MORE IMPORTANCE...MOISTURE WILL
BE INCREASING MARKEDLY AFTER 09Z AS AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND LIKELY IFR
OR WORSE CONDITIONS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT THUNDER...BUT CHANCES TOO
LOW TO MENTION...ESPECIALLY THAT FAR OUT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

















000
FXUS63 KIND 181631
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE OVER OHIO LATE THIS MORNING. AN UPPER
LOW WAS FOUND OVER COLORADO...WITH A STREAM OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE OF THE ONGOING SITUATION. HIGH
CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STREAMS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 70S APPEAR QUITE REACHABLE.
THUS WILL EXPECT A FEW CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH 9Z WITH
JUST CIRRUS AND PERHAPS SOME DIURNAL CU. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 10 KNOTS OR MORE. OF MORE IMPORTANCE...MOISTURE WILL
BE INCREASING MARKEDLY AFTER 09Z AS AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND LIKELY IFR
OR WORSE CONDITIONS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT THUNDER...BUT CHANCES TOO
LOW TO MENTION...ESPECIALLY THAT FAR OUT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
















000
FXUS63 KIND 181423
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1022 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE OVER OHIO LATE THIS MORNING. AN UPPER
LOW WAS FOUND OVER COLORADO...WITH A STREAM OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE OF THE ONGOING SITUATION. HIGH
CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STREAMS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 70S APPEAR QUITE REACHABLE.
THUS WILL EXPECT A FEW CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADDED EAST WINDS TO 7 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...TWEAKED CIRRUS HEIGHT
AND COVERAGE AND BROUGHT IN SCATTERED DIURNAL CU.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
WELL INTO TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
BETWEEN THE SUN 09-12Z TIME FRAME...THAT IS WHEN CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY. AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR CATEGORY AT KIND AROUND SUN 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 12 TO 14 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 181423
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1022 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE OVER OHIO LATE THIS MORNING. AN UPPER
LOW WAS FOUND OVER COLORADO...WITH A STREAM OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE OF THE ONGOING SITUATION. HIGH
CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STREAMS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 70S APPEAR QUITE REACHABLE.
THUS WILL EXPECT A FEW CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADDED EAST WINDS TO 7 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...TWEAKED CIRRUS HEIGHT
AND COVERAGE AND BROUGHT IN SCATTERED DIURNAL CU.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
WELL INTO TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
BETWEEN THE SUN 09-12Z TIME FRAME...THAT IS WHEN CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY. AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR CATEGORY AT KIND AROUND SUN 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 12 TO 14 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 181423
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1022 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE OVER OHIO LATE THIS MORNING. AN UPPER
LOW WAS FOUND OVER COLORADO...WITH A STREAM OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE OF THE ONGOING SITUATION. HIGH
CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STREAMS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 70S APPEAR QUITE REACHABLE.
THUS WILL EXPECT A FEW CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADDED EAST WINDS TO 7 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...TWEAKED CIRRUS HEIGHT
AND COVERAGE AND BROUGHT IN SCATTERED DIURNAL CU.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
WELL INTO TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
BETWEEN THE SUN 09-12Z TIME FRAME...THAT IS WHEN CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY. AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR CATEGORY AT KIND AROUND SUN 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 12 TO 14 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 181423
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1022 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE OVER OHIO LATE THIS MORNING. AN UPPER
LOW WAS FOUND OVER COLORADO...WITH A STREAM OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE OF THE ONGOING SITUATION. HIGH
CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STREAMS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 70S APPEAR QUITE REACHABLE.
THUS WILL EXPECT A FEW CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADDED EAST WINDS TO 7 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...TWEAKED CIRRUS HEIGHT
AND COVERAGE AND BROUGHT IN SCATTERED DIURNAL CU.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
WELL INTO TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
BETWEEN THE SUN 09-12Z TIME FRAME...THAT IS WHEN CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY. AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR CATEGORY AT KIND AROUND SUN 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 12 TO 14 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 181355
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
955 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE OVER OHIO LATE THIS MORNING. AN UPPER
LOW WAS FOUND OVER COLORADO...WITH A STREAM OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE OF THE ONGOING SITUATION. HIGH
CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STREAMS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 70S APPEAR QUITE REACHABLE.
THUS WILL EXPECT A FEW CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
WELL INTO TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
BETWEEN THE SUN 09-12Z TIME FRAME...THAT IS WHEN CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY. AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR CATEGORY AT KIND AROUND SUN 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 12 TO 14 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 181355
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
955 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE OVER OHIO LATE THIS MORNING. AN UPPER
LOW WAS FOUND OVER COLORADO...WITH A STREAM OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE OF THE ONGOING SITUATION. HIGH
CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STREAMS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 70S APPEAR QUITE REACHABLE.
THUS WILL EXPECT A FEW CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
WELL INTO TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
BETWEEN THE SUN 09-12Z TIME FRAME...THAT IS WHEN CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY. AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR CATEGORY AT KIND AROUND SUN 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 12 TO 14 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 181142
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
742 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

CONDITIONS THIS HOUR DO NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR EVEN WIDESPREAD
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THE
ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE IS STILL TOO DRY. SO REMOVED THE
WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG MENTION FROM THE FORECAST FROM NOW. IT
CERTAINLY MAY OCCUR IN MANY LOCALES JUST NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT AND WARM DAY...ALBEIT NOT AS
SUNNY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DID NOT GO VERY FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE
HIGHER MAV/MEX TO THE LOWER MET FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. FOR NOW KEEPING KIND UNDER THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
WELL INTO TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
BETWEEN THE SUN 09-12Z TIME FRAME...THAT IS WHEN CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY. AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR CATEGORY AT KIND AROUND SUN 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 12 TO 14 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 181142
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
742 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

CONDITIONS THIS HOUR DO NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR EVEN WIDESPREAD
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THE
ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE IS STILL TOO DRY. SO REMOVED THE
WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG MENTION FROM THE FORECAST FROM NOW. IT
CERTAINLY MAY OCCUR IN MANY LOCALES JUST NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT AND WARM DAY...ALBEIT NOT AS
SUNNY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DID NOT GO VERY FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE
HIGHER MAV/MEX TO THE LOWER MET FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. FOR NOW KEEPING KIND UNDER THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
WELL INTO TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
BETWEEN THE SUN 09-12Z TIME FRAME...THAT IS WHEN CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY. AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR CATEGORY AT KIND AROUND SUN 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 12 TO 14 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 181142
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
742 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

CONDITIONS THIS HOUR DO NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR EVEN WIDESPREAD
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THE
ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE IS STILL TOO DRY. SO REMOVED THE
WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG MENTION FROM THE FORECAST FROM NOW. IT
CERTAINLY MAY OCCUR IN MANY LOCALES JUST NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT AND WARM DAY...ALBEIT NOT AS
SUNNY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DID NOT GO VERY FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE
HIGHER MAV/MEX TO THE LOWER MET FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. FOR NOW KEEPING KIND UNDER THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
WELL INTO TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
BETWEEN THE SUN 09-12Z TIME FRAME...THAT IS WHEN CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY. AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR CATEGORY AT KIND AROUND SUN 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 12 TO 14 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 181142
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
742 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

CONDITIONS THIS HOUR DO NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR EVEN WIDESPREAD
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THE
ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE IS STILL TOO DRY. SO REMOVED THE
WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG MENTION FROM THE FORECAST FROM NOW. IT
CERTAINLY MAY OCCUR IN MANY LOCALES JUST NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT AND WARM DAY...ALBEIT NOT AS
SUNNY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DID NOT GO VERY FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE
HIGHER MAV/MEX TO THE LOWER MET FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. FOR NOW KEEPING KIND UNDER THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
WELL INTO TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
BETWEEN THE SUN 09-12Z TIME FRAME...THAT IS WHEN CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY. AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR CATEGORY AT KIND AROUND SUN 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 12 TO 14 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 181002
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
602 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

CONDITIONS THIS HOUR DO NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR EVEN WIDESPREAD
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THE
ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE IS STILL TOO DRY. SO REMOVED THE
WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG MENTION FROM THE FORECAST FROM NOW. IT
CERTAINLY MAY OCCUR IN MANY LOCALES JUST NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT AND WARM DAY...ALBEIT NOT AS
SUNNY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DID NOT GO VERY FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE
HIGHER MAV/MEX TO THE LOWER MET FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. FOR NOW KEEPING KIND UNDER THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 601 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPDATE...
REMOVED MENTION OF FOG FROM KIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AIR MASS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT EARLIER YESTERDAY. AS A
RESULT...APPEARS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ABOVE IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BASED AROUND
050 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS
BELOW AT OR BELOW 7 KTS THROUGH 181800Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 181002
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
602 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

CONDITIONS THIS HOUR DO NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR EVEN WIDESPREAD
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THE
ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE IS STILL TOO DRY. SO REMOVED THE
WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG MENTION FROM THE FORECAST FROM NOW. IT
CERTAINLY MAY OCCUR IN MANY LOCALES JUST NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT AND WARM DAY...ALBEIT NOT AS
SUNNY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DID NOT GO VERY FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE
HIGHER MAV/MEX TO THE LOWER MET FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. FOR NOW KEEPING KIND UNDER THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 601 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPDATE...
REMOVED MENTION OF FOG FROM KIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AIR MASS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT EARLIER YESTERDAY. AS A
RESULT...APPEARS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ABOVE IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BASED AROUND
050 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS
BELOW AT OR BELOW 7 KTS THROUGH 181800Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 180756
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
356 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

CONDITIONS THIS HOUR DO NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR EVEN WIDESPREAD
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THE
ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE IS STILL TOO DRY. SO REMOVED THE
WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG MENTION FROM THE FORECAST FROM NOW. IT
CERTAINLY MAY OCCUR IN MANY LOCALES JUST NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT AND WARM DAY...ALBEIT NOT AS
SUNNY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DID NOT GO VERY FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE
HIGHER MAV/MEX TO THE LOWER MET FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. FOR NOW KEEPING KIND UNDER THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/0600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

AIR MASS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT EARLIER YESTERDAY. AS A
RESULT...APPEARS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ABOVE IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BASED AROUND
050 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS
BELOW AT OR BELOW 7 KTS THROUGH 181800Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 180756
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
356 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

CONDITIONS THIS HOUR DO NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR EVEN WIDESPREAD
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THE
ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE IS STILL TOO DRY. SO REMOVED THE
WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG MENTION FROM THE FORECAST FROM NOW. IT
CERTAINLY MAY OCCUR IN MANY LOCALES JUST NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT AND WARM DAY...ALBEIT NOT AS
SUNNY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DID NOT GO VERY FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE
HIGHER MAV/MEX TO THE LOWER MET FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. FOR NOW KEEPING KIND UNDER THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/0600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

AIR MASS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT EARLIER YESTERDAY. AS A
RESULT...APPEARS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ABOVE IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BASED AROUND
050 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS
BELOW AT OR BELOW 7 KTS THROUGH 181800Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 180733
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
333 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

CONDITIONS THIS HOUR DO NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR EVEN WIDESPREAD
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THE
ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE IS STILL TOO DRY. SO REMOVED THE
WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG MENTION FROM THE FORECAST FROM NOW. IT
CERTAINLY MAY OCCUR IN MANY LOCALES JUST NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT AND WARM DAY...ALBEIT NOT AS
SUNNY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DID NOT GO VERY FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE
HIGHER MAV/MEX TO THE LOWER MET FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. FOR NOW KEEPING KIND UNDER THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/0600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

AIR MASS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT EARLIER YESTERDAY. AS A
RESULT...APPEARS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ABOVE IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BASED AROUND
050 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS
BELOW AT OR BELOW 7 KTS THROUGH 181800Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 180733
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
333 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

CONDITIONS THIS HOUR DO NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR EVEN WIDESPREAD
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THE
ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE IS STILL TOO DRY. SO REMOVED THE
WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG MENTION FROM THE FORECAST FROM NOW. IT
CERTAINLY MAY OCCUR IN MANY LOCALES JUST NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT AND WARM DAY...ALBEIT NOT AS
SUNNY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DID NOT GO VERY FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE
HIGHER MAV/MEX TO THE LOWER MET FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. FOR NOW KEEPING KIND UNDER THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/0600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

AIR MASS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT EARLIER YESTERDAY. AS A
RESULT...APPEARS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ABOVE IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BASED AROUND
050 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS
BELOW AT OR BELOW 7 KTS THROUGH 181800Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 180733
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
333 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

CONDITIONS THIS HOUR DO NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR EVEN WIDESPREAD
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THE
ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE IS STILL TOO DRY. SO REMOVED THE
WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG MENTION FROM THE FORECAST FROM NOW. IT
CERTAINLY MAY OCCUR IN MANY LOCALES JUST NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT AND WARM DAY...ALBEIT NOT AS
SUNNY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DID NOT GO VERY FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE
HIGHER MAV/MEX TO THE LOWER MET FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. FOR NOW KEEPING KIND UNDER THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/0600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

AIR MASS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT EARLIER YESTERDAY. AS A
RESULT...APPEARS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ABOVE IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BASED AROUND
050 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS
BELOW AT OR BELOW 7 KTS THROUGH 181800Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 180456
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1256 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. DEW POINTS THEMSELVES ARE LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE SREF ENSEMBLE CHANCES OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 3 MILES
AND CEILINGS LESS THAN 1000 FEET WERE 5 PERCENT OR LESS AND ONLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE DEW POINTS WERE HIGHEST.
SO...WILL NOT GO ANYMORE PESSIMISTIC THAN PATCHY FOG FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/0600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

AIR MASS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT EARLIER YESTERDAY. AS A
RESULT...APPEARS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ABOVE IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BASED AROUND
050 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS
BELOW AT OR BELOW 7 KTS THROUGH 181800Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 180456
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1256 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. DEW POINTS THEMSELVES ARE LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE SREF ENSEMBLE CHANCES OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 3 MILES
AND CEILINGS LESS THAN 1000 FEET WERE 5 PERCENT OR LESS AND ONLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE DEW POINTS WERE HIGHEST.
SO...WILL NOT GO ANYMORE PESSIMISTIC THAN PATCHY FOG FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/0600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

AIR MASS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT EARLIER YESTERDAY. AS A
RESULT...APPEARS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ABOVE IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BASED AROUND
050 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS
BELOW AT OR BELOW 7 KTS THROUGH 181800Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 180456
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1256 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. DEW POINTS THEMSELVES ARE LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE SREF ENSEMBLE CHANCES OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 3 MILES
AND CEILINGS LESS THAN 1000 FEET WERE 5 PERCENT OR LESS AND ONLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE DEW POINTS WERE HIGHEST.
SO...WILL NOT GO ANYMORE PESSIMISTIC THAN PATCHY FOG FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/0600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

AIR MASS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT EARLIER YESTERDAY. AS A
RESULT...APPEARS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ABOVE IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BASED AROUND
050 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS
BELOW AT OR BELOW 7 KTS THROUGH 181800Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 180221
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1019 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. DEW POINTS THEMSELVES ARE LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE SREF ENSEMBLE CHANCES OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 3 MILES
AND CEILINGS LESS THAN 1000 FEET WERE 5 PERCENT OR LESS AND ONLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE DEW POINTS WERE HIGHEST.
SO...WILL NOT GO ANYMORE PESSIMISTIC THAN PATCHY FOG FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

AIR MASS HAS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT TODAY. AS A RESULT...APPEARS
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ABOVE
IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER ABOUT 180800Z.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...SURFACE WINDS BELOW 7 KTS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

















000
FXUS63 KIND 180221
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1019 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. DEW POINTS THEMSELVES ARE LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE SREF ENSEMBLE CHANCES OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 3 MILES
AND CEILINGS LESS THAN 1000 FEET WERE 5 PERCENT OR LESS AND ONLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE DEW POINTS WERE HIGHEST.
SO...WILL NOT GO ANYMORE PESSIMISTIC THAN PATCHY FOG FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

AIR MASS HAS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT TODAY. AS A RESULT...APPEARS
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ABOVE
IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER ABOUT 180800Z.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...SURFACE WINDS BELOW 7 KTS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

















000
FXUS63 KIND 180221
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1019 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. DEW POINTS THEMSELVES ARE LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE SREF ENSEMBLE CHANCES OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 3 MILES
AND CEILINGS LESS THAN 1000 FEET WERE 5 PERCENT OR LESS AND ONLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE DEW POINTS WERE HIGHEST.
SO...WILL NOT GO ANYMORE PESSIMISTIC THAN PATCHY FOG FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

AIR MASS HAS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT TODAY. AS A RESULT...APPEARS
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ABOVE
IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER ABOUT 180800Z.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...SURFACE WINDS BELOW 7 KTS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS


















000
FXUS63 KIND 180221
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1019 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. DEW POINTS THEMSELVES ARE LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE SREF ENSEMBLE CHANCES OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 3 MILES
AND CEILINGS LESS THAN 1000 FEET WERE 5 PERCENT OR LESS AND ONLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE DEW POINTS WERE HIGHEST.
SO...WILL NOT GO ANYMORE PESSIMISTIC THAN PATCHY FOG FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

AIR MASS HAS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT TODAY. AS A RESULT...APPEARS
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ABOVE
IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER ABOUT 180800Z.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...SURFACE WINDS BELOW 7 KTS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS


















000
FXUS63 KIND 180130
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
930 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. DEW POINTS THEMSELVES ARE LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE SREF ENSEMBLE CHANCES OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 3 MILES
AND CEILINGS LESS THAN 1000 FEET WERE 5 PERCENT OR LESS AND ONLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE DEW POINTS WERE HIGHEST.
SO...WILL NOT GO ANYMORE PESSIMISTIC THAN PATCHY FOG FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 635 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AIR MASS HAS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT TODAY. AS A RESULT...APPEARS
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ABOVE
IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER ABOUT 180800Z.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...SURFACE WINDS BELOW 7 KTS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 180130
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
930 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. DEW POINTS THEMSELVES ARE LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE SREF ENSEMBLE CHANCES OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 3 MILES
AND CEILINGS LESS THAN 1000 FEET WERE 5 PERCENT OR LESS AND ONLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE DEW POINTS WERE HIGHEST.
SO...WILL NOT GO ANYMORE PESSIMISTIC THAN PATCHY FOG FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 635 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AIR MASS HAS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT TODAY. AS A RESULT...APPEARS
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ABOVE
IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER ABOUT 180800Z.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...SURFACE WINDS BELOW 7 KTS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS















000
FXUS63 KIND 172236
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
635 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 635 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AIR MASS HAS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT TODAY. AS A RESULT...APPEARS
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ABOVE
IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER ABOUT 180800Z.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...SURFACE WINDS BELOW 7 KTS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 172236
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
635 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 635 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AIR MASS HAS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT TODAY. AS A RESULT...APPEARS
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ABOVE
IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER ABOUT 180800Z.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...SURFACE WINDS BELOW 7 KTS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 172018
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
417 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 172100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 172018
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
417 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 172100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 171840
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
240 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 171840
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
240 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 171840
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
240 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 171840
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
240 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 171758
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
158 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 171758
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
158 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 171758
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
158 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 171758
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
158 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 171728
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
128 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWS
SOME HIGH CLOUD ALOFT AMID A QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY SHOW UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALONG
WITH A DRY COLUMN. ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ALONG WITH TEMPS ABOVE MAVMOS. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES ALL OF
THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 171728
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
128 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWS
SOME HIGH CLOUD ALOFT AMID A QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY SHOW UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALONG
WITH A DRY COLUMN. ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ALONG WITH TEMPS ABOVE MAVMOS. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES ALL OF
THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 171728
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
128 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWS
SOME HIGH CLOUD ALOFT AMID A QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY SHOW UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALONG
WITH A DRY COLUMN. ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ALONG WITH TEMPS ABOVE MAVMOS. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES ALL OF
THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 171728
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
128 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWS
SOME HIGH CLOUD ALOFT AMID A QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY SHOW UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALONG
WITH A DRY COLUMN. ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ALONG WITH TEMPS ABOVE MAVMOS. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES ALL OF
THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 171442
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1042 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWS
SOME HIGH CLOUD ALOFT AMID A QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY SHOW UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALONG
WITH A DRY COLUMN. ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ALONG WITH TEMPS ABOVE MAVMOS. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES ALL OF
THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/15Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1042 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE RETURNING TO THE SITES AS FOG BURNS OFF AND WILL
PREVAIL FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO FOG CHANCES AGAIN FOR TONIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST TAF SITES WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INSERT AT KIND AT THIS TIME WHERE WINDS MIGHT BE JUST
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 171442
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1042 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWS
SOME HIGH CLOUD ALOFT AMID A QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY SHOW UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALONG
WITH A DRY COLUMN. ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ALONG WITH TEMPS ABOVE MAVMOS. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES ALL OF
THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/15Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1042 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE RETURNING TO THE SITES AS FOG BURNS OFF AND WILL
PREVAIL FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO FOG CHANCES AGAIN FOR TONIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST TAF SITES WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INSERT AT KIND AT THIS TIME WHERE WINDS MIGHT BE JUST
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 171337
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
935 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWS
SOME HIGH CLOUD ALOFT AMID A QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY SHOW UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALONG
WITH A DRY COLUMN. ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ALONG WITH TEMPS ABOVE MAVMOS. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES ALL OF
THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI 14Z AT ALL TAF SITES
DUE TO DENSE FOG. AS SOON AS THE FOG LIFTS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN AND PREVAIL FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO FOG CHANCES AGAIN FOR TONIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST TAF SITES
WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT AT KIND AT THIS TIME WHERE WINDS MIGHT
BE JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 171337
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
935 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWS
SOME HIGH CLOUD ALOFT AMID A QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY SHOW UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALONG
WITH A DRY COLUMN. ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ALONG WITH TEMPS ABOVE MAVMOS. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES ALL OF
THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI 14Z AT ALL TAF SITES
DUE TO DENSE FOG. AS SOON AS THE FOG LIFTS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN AND PREVAIL FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO FOG CHANCES AGAIN FOR TONIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST TAF SITES
WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT AT KIND AT THIS TIME WHERE WINDS MIGHT
BE JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 171136
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
736 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLEARING PER SATELLITE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S HAVE ALLOWED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO FORM ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND GOES
UNTIL 9AM. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING EXPECTING FOG CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
OUT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...CONDITIONS DO NOT GET MUCH BETTER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMED REASONABLE FOR TEMPS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON STILL ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI 14Z AT ALL TAF SITES
DUE TO DENSE FOG. AS SOON AS THE FOG LIFTS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN AND PREVAIL FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO FOG CHANCES AGAIN FOR TONIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST TAF SITES
WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT AT KIND AT THIS TIME WHERE WINDS MIGHT
BE JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 171136
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
736 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLEARING PER SATELLITE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S HAVE ALLOWED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO FORM ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND GOES
UNTIL 9AM. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING EXPECTING FOG CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
OUT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...CONDITIONS DO NOT GET MUCH BETTER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMED REASONABLE FOR TEMPS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON STILL ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI 14Z AT ALL TAF SITES
DUE TO DENSE FOG. AS SOON AS THE FOG LIFTS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN AND PREVAIL FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO FOG CHANCES AGAIN FOR TONIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST TAF SITES
WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT AT KIND AT THIS TIME WHERE WINDS MIGHT
BE JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 170838
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
438 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLEARING PER SATELLITE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S HAVE ALLOWED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO FORM ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND GOES
UNTIL 9AM. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING EXPECTING FOG CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
OUT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...CONDITIONS DO NOT GET MUCH BETTER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMED REASONABLE FOR TEMPS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON STILL ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/09Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATE...
VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KIND THROUGH DAYBREAK DUE TO DENSE
FOG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS CLEARING CONTINUES...FOG WILL PERSIST AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 170838
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
438 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLEARING PER SATELLITE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S HAVE ALLOWED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO FORM ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND GOES
UNTIL 9AM. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING EXPECTING FOG CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
OUT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...CONDITIONS DO NOT GET MUCH BETTER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMED REASONABLE FOR TEMPS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON STILL ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/09Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATE...
VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KIND THROUGH DAYBREAK DUE TO DENSE
FOG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS CLEARING CONTINUES...FOG WILL PERSIST AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 170838
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
438 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLEARING PER SATELLITE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S HAVE ALLOWED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO FORM ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND GOES
UNTIL 9AM. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING EXPECTING FOG CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
OUT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...CONDITIONS DO NOT GET MUCH BETTER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMED REASONABLE FOR TEMPS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON STILL ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/09Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATE...
VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KIND THROUGH DAYBREAK DUE TO DENSE
FOG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS CLEARING CONTINUES...FOG WILL PERSIST AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 170838
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
438 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLEARING PER SATELLITE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S HAVE ALLOWED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO FORM ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND GOES
UNTIL 9AM. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING EXPECTING FOG CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
OUT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...CONDITIONS DO NOT GET MUCH BETTER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMED REASONABLE FOR TEMPS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON STILL ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/09Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATE...
VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KIND THROUGH DAYBREAK DUE TO DENSE
FOG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS CLEARING CONTINUES...FOG WILL PERSIST AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 170808
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
408 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLEARING PER SATELLITE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S HAVE ALLOWED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO FORM ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND GOES
UNTIL 9AM. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING EXPECTING FOG CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
OUT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...CONDITIONS DO NOT GET MUCH BETTER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMED REASONABLE FOR TEMPS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON STILL ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/06Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AS CLEARING CONTINUES...FOG WILL PERSIST AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 170808
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
408 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLEARING PER SATELLITE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S HAVE ALLOWED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO FORM ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND GOES
UNTIL 9AM. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING EXPECTING FOG CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
OUT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...CONDITIONS DO NOT GET MUCH BETTER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMED REASONABLE FOR TEMPS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON STILL ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/06Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AS CLEARING CONTINUES...FOG WILL PERSIST AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 170742
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
342 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLEARING PER SATELLITE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S HAVE ALLOWED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO FORM ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND GOES
UNTIL 9AM. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING EXPECTING FOG CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
OUT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...CONDITIONS DO NOT GET MUCH BETTER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMED REASONABLE FOR TEMPS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON STILL ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/06Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AS CLEARING CONTINUES...FOG WILL PERSIST AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 170742
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
342 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLEARING PER SATELLITE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S HAVE ALLOWED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO FORM ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND GOES
UNTIL 9AM. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING EXPECTING FOG CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
OUT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...CONDITIONS DO NOT GET MUCH BETTER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMED REASONABLE FOR TEMPS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON STILL ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/06Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AS CLEARING CONTINUES...FOG WILL PERSIST AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 170508
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
108 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...HAD TO
EXTEND POPS THROUGH 11 PM. OTHERWISE...BROUGHT PARTIAL CLEARING IN
PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND 18Z SUPERBLEND. THIS...ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AT
ANY TIME. WILL RAMP IT UP TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT FROM PATCHY FOG.
HOWEVER...WITH MOS SUGGESTING SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN...WILL
NOT BE GOING WITH HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT PER MOS. ALSO...PULLED POPS EXCEPT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO
FAR OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE
PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/06Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AS CLEARING CONTINUES...FOG WILL PERSIST AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 170508
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
108 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...HAD TO
EXTEND POPS THROUGH 11 PM. OTHERWISE...BROUGHT PARTIAL CLEARING IN
PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND 18Z SUPERBLEND. THIS...ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AT
ANY TIME. WILL RAMP IT UP TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT FROM PATCHY FOG.
HOWEVER...WITH MOS SUGGESTING SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN...WILL
NOT BE GOING WITH HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT PER MOS. ALSO...PULLED POPS EXCEPT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO
FAR OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE
PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/06Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AS CLEARING CONTINUES...FOG WILL PERSIST AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 170508
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
108 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...HAD TO
EXTEND POPS THROUGH 11 PM. OTHERWISE...BROUGHT PARTIAL CLEARING IN
PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND 18Z SUPERBLEND. THIS...ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AT
ANY TIME. WILL RAMP IT UP TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT FROM PATCHY FOG.
HOWEVER...WITH MOS SUGGESTING SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN...WILL
NOT BE GOING WITH HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT PER MOS. ALSO...PULLED POPS EXCEPT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO
FAR OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE
PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/06Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AS CLEARING CONTINUES...FOG WILL PERSIST AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 170230
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1028 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...HAD TO
EXTEND POPS THROUGH 11 PM. OTHERWISE...BROUGHT PARTIAL CLEARING IN
PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND 18Z SUPERBLEND. THIS...ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AT
ANY TIME. WILL RAMP IT UP TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT FROM PATCHY FOG.
HOWEVER...WITH MOS SUGGESTING SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN...WILL
NOT BE GOING WITH HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT PER MOS. ALSO...PULLED POPS EXCEPT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO
FAR OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE
PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/0300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

RAMPED UP THE FOG AS SKIES ARE CLEARING...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND THE
TEMPERATURE IS NEARING ITS DEW POINT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY BECOME VFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS RAPID EROSION OF LOW CLOUD CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA.

THIS CLEARING SETS THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE WILL GO
DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 170230
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1028 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...HAD TO
EXTEND POPS THROUGH 11 PM. OTHERWISE...BROUGHT PARTIAL CLEARING IN
PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND 18Z SUPERBLEND. THIS...ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AT
ANY TIME. WILL RAMP IT UP TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT FROM PATCHY FOG.
HOWEVER...WITH MOS SUGGESTING SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN...WILL
NOT BE GOING WITH HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT PER MOS. ALSO...PULLED POPS EXCEPT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO
FAR OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE
PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/0300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

RAMPED UP THE FOG AS SKIES ARE CLEARING...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND THE
TEMPERATURE IS NEARING ITS DEW POINT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY BECOME VFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS RAPID EROSION OF LOW CLOUD CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA.

THIS CLEARING SETS THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE WILL GO
DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 170146
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
945 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...HAD TO
EXTEND POPS THROUGH 11 PM. OTHERWISE...BROUGHT PARTIAL CLEARING IN
PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND 18Z SUPERBLEND. THIS...ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AT
ANY TIME. WILL RAMP IT UP TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT FROM PATCHY FOG.
HOWEVER...WITH MOS SUGGESTING SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN...WILL
NOT BE GOING WITH HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT PER MOS. ALSO...PULLED POPS EXCEPT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO
FAR OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE
PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY BECOME VFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS RAPID EROSION OF LOW CLOUD CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA.

THIS CLEARING SETS THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE WILL GO
DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 170146
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
945 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...HAD TO
EXTEND POPS THROUGH 11 PM. OTHERWISE...BROUGHT PARTIAL CLEARING IN
PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND 18Z SUPERBLEND. THIS...ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AT
ANY TIME. WILL RAMP IT UP TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT FROM PATCHY FOG.
HOWEVER...WITH MOS SUGGESTING SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN...WILL
NOT BE GOING WITH HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT PER MOS. ALSO...PULLED POPS EXCEPT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO
FAR OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE
PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY BECOME VFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS RAPID EROSION OF LOW CLOUD CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA.

THIS CLEARING SETS THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE WILL GO
DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 162335
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT PER MOS. ALSO...PULLED POPS EXCEPT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO
FAR OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE
PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY BECOME VFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS RAPID EROSION OF LOW CLOUD CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA.

THIS CLEARING SETS THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE WILL GO
DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 162335
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT PER MOS. ALSO...PULLED POPS EXCEPT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO
FAR OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE
PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY BECOME VFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS RAPID EROSION OF LOW CLOUD CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA.

THIS CLEARING SETS THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE WILL GO
DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 162335
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT PER MOS. ALSO...PULLED POPS EXCEPT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO
FAR OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE
PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY BECOME VFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS RAPID EROSION OF LOW CLOUD CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA.

THIS CLEARING SETS THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE WILL GO
DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 162335
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT PER MOS. ALSO...PULLED POPS EXCEPT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO
FAR OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE
PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY BECOME VFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS RAPID EROSION OF LOW CLOUD CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA.

THIS CLEARING SETS THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE WILL GO
DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 162302
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
702 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO
FAR OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE
PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY BECOME VFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS RAPID EROSION OF LOW CLOUD CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA.

THIS CLEARING SETS THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE WILL GO
DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 162302
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
702 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO
FAR OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE
PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY BECOME VFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS RAPID EROSION OF LOW CLOUD CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA.

THIS CLEARING SETS THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE WILL GO
DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 161828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
228 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO FAR
OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE PERIODS.
THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST 4-5 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED.

SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CLEARING HAD WORKED HALF WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CONTINUING
TO WORK EAST AS DIRTY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILDS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...SIGNALING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE AT 1 OR LESS...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP SOME DIURNAL MVFR FOR NOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 161828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
228 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO FAR
OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE PERIODS.
THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST 4-5 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED.

SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CLEARING HAD WORKED HALF WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CONTINUING
TO WORK EAST AS DIRTY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILDS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...SIGNALING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE AT 1 OR LESS...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP SOME DIURNAL MVFR FOR NOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 161828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
228 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO FAR
OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE PERIODS.
THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST 4-5 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED.

SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CLEARING HAD WORKED HALF WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CONTINUING
TO WORK EAST AS DIRTY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILDS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...SIGNALING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE AT 1 OR LESS...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP SOME DIURNAL MVFR FOR NOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 161828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
228 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO FAR
OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE PERIODS.
THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST 4-5 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED.

SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CLEARING HAD WORKED HALF WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CONTINUING
TO WORK EAST AS DIRTY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILDS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...SIGNALING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE AT 1 OR LESS...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP SOME DIURNAL MVFR FOR NOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 161817
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
217 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.  MODELS EJECT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MERGE IT WITH
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOLER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTENDING SOUTH
TO WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEING
PRODUCED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY...WHILE SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS AND LIKELY POPS IN OUR EAST TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT LOWER 70S ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THERE LATER TODAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVES OUR WAY BY FRIDAY.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ALSO MOVE
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST MODELS MOVE A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AND THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  ONLY
MENTIONED THUNDER IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ONLY
HAVE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN A 100 J/KG.  IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON MOST PERIODS.  HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST 4-5 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED.

SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CLEARING HAD WORKED HALF WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CONTINUING
TO WORK EAST AS DIRTY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILDS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...SIGNALING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE AT 1 OR LESS...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP SOME DIURNAL MVFR FOR NOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 161817
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
217 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.  MODELS EJECT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MERGE IT WITH
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOLER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTENDING SOUTH
TO WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEING
PRODUCED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY...WHILE SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS AND LIKELY POPS IN OUR EAST TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT LOWER 70S ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THERE LATER TODAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVES OUR WAY BY FRIDAY.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ALSO MOVE
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST MODELS MOVE A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AND THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  ONLY
MENTIONED THUNDER IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ONLY
HAVE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN A 100 J/KG.  IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON MOST PERIODS.  HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST 4-5 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED.

SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CLEARING HAD WORKED HALF WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CONTINUING
TO WORK EAST AS DIRTY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILDS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...SIGNALING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE AT 1 OR LESS...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP SOME DIURNAL MVFR FOR NOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 161817
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
217 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.  MODELS EJECT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MERGE IT WITH
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOLER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTENDING SOUTH
TO WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEING
PRODUCED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY...WHILE SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS AND LIKELY POPS IN OUR EAST TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT LOWER 70S ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THERE LATER TODAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVES OUR WAY BY FRIDAY.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ALSO MOVE
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST MODELS MOVE A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AND THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  ONLY
MENTIONED THUNDER IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ONLY
HAVE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN A 100 J/KG.  IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON MOST PERIODS.  HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST 4-5 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED.

SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CLEARING HAD WORKED HALF WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CONTINUING
TO WORK EAST AS DIRTY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILDS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...SIGNALING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE AT 1 OR LESS...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP SOME DIURNAL MVFR FOR NOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 161817
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
217 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.  MODELS EJECT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MERGE IT WITH
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOLER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTENDING SOUTH
TO WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEING
PRODUCED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY...WHILE SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS AND LIKELY POPS IN OUR EAST TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT LOWER 70S ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THERE LATER TODAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVES OUR WAY BY FRIDAY.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ALSO MOVE
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST MODELS MOVE A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AND THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  ONLY
MENTIONED THUNDER IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ONLY
HAVE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN A 100 J/KG.  IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON MOST PERIODS.  HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST 4-5 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED.

SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CLEARING HAD WORKED HALF WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CONTINUING
TO WORK EAST AS DIRTY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILDS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...SIGNALING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE AT 1 OR LESS...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP SOME DIURNAL MVFR FOR NOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 161658
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1258 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.  MODELS EJECT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MERGE IT WITH
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOLER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTENDING SOUTH
TO WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEING
PRODUCED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY...WHILE SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS AND LIKELY POPS IN OUR EAST TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT LOWER 70S ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THERE LATER TODAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVES OUR WAY BY FRIDAY.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ALSO MOVE
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST MODELS MOVE A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AND THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  ONLY
MENTIONED THUNDER IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ONLY
HAVE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN A 100 J/KG.  IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON MOST PERIODS.  HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWERING CHANCES MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.

MODELS DO DIFFER ON WHETHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE GFS BRINGING IN RAIN WITH A FRONT AND THE ECMWF REMAINING DRY.
WITH UNCERTAINTY RELATIVELY HIGH THAT FAR OUT...STUCK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND LOW POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER THAN AVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST 4-5 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED.

SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CLEARING HAD WORKED HALF WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CONTINUING
TO WORK EAST AS DIRTY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILDS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...SIGNALING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE AT 1 OR LESS...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP SOME DIURNAL MVFR FOR NOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 161658
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1258 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.  MODELS EJECT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MERGE IT WITH
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOLER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTENDING SOUTH
TO WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEING
PRODUCED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY...WHILE SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS AND LIKELY POPS IN OUR EAST TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT LOWER 70S ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THERE LATER TODAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVES OUR WAY BY FRIDAY.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ALSO MOVE
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST MODELS MOVE A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AND THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  ONLY
MENTIONED THUNDER IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ONLY
HAVE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN A 100 J/KG.  IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON MOST PERIODS.  HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWERING CHANCES MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.

MODELS DO DIFFER ON WHETHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE GFS BRINGING IN RAIN WITH A FRONT AND THE ECMWF REMAINING DRY.
WITH UNCERTAINTY RELATIVELY HIGH THAT FAR OUT...STUCK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND LOW POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER THAN AVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST 4-5 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED.

SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CLEARING HAD WORKED HALF WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CONTINUING
TO WORK EAST AS DIRTY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILDS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...SIGNALING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE AT 1 OR LESS...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP SOME DIURNAL MVFR FOR NOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 161658
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1258 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.  MODELS EJECT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MERGE IT WITH
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOLER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTENDING SOUTH
TO WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEING
PRODUCED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY...WHILE SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS AND LIKELY POPS IN OUR EAST TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT LOWER 70S ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THERE LATER TODAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVES OUR WAY BY FRIDAY.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ALSO MOVE
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST MODELS MOVE A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AND THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  ONLY
MENTIONED THUNDER IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ONLY
HAVE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN A 100 J/KG.  IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON MOST PERIODS.  HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWERING CHANCES MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.

MODELS DO DIFFER ON WHETHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE GFS BRINGING IN RAIN WITH A FRONT AND THE ECMWF REMAINING DRY.
WITH UNCERTAINTY RELATIVELY HIGH THAT FAR OUT...STUCK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND LOW POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER THAN AVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST 4-5 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED.

SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CLEARING HAD WORKED HALF WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CONTINUING
TO WORK EAST AS DIRTY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILDS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...SIGNALING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE AT 1 OR LESS...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP SOME DIURNAL MVFR FOR NOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 161658
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1258 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.  MODELS EJECT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MERGE IT WITH
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOLER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTENDING SOUTH
TO WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEING
PRODUCED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY...WHILE SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS AND LIKELY POPS IN OUR EAST TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT LOWER 70S ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THERE LATER TODAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVES OUR WAY BY FRIDAY.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ALSO MOVE
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST MODELS MOVE A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AND THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  ONLY
MENTIONED THUNDER IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ONLY
HAVE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN A 100 J/KG.  IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON MOST PERIODS.  HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWERING CHANCES MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.

MODELS DO DIFFER ON WHETHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE GFS BRINGING IN RAIN WITH A FRONT AND THE ECMWF REMAINING DRY.
WITH UNCERTAINTY RELATIVELY HIGH THAT FAR OUT...STUCK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND LOW POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER THAN AVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST 4-5 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED.

SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CLEARING HAD WORKED HALF WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CONTINUING
TO WORK EAST AS DIRTY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILDS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...SIGNALING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE AT 1 OR LESS...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP SOME DIURNAL MVFR FOR NOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 161436
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1036 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.  MODELS EJECT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MERGE IT WITH
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOLER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTENDING SOUTH
TO WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEING
PRODUCED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY...WHILE SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS AND LIKELY POPS IN OUR EAST TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT LOWER 70S ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THERE LATER TODAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVES OUR WAY BY FRIDAY.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ALSO MOVE
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST MODELS MOVE A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AND THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  ONLY
MENTIONED THUNDER IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ONLY
HAVE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN A 100 J/KG.  IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON MOST PERIODS.  HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWERING CHANCES MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.

MODELS DO DIFFER ON WHETHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE GFS BRINGING IN RAIN WITH A FRONT AND THE ECMWF REMAINING DRY.
WITH UNCERTAINTY RELATIVELY HIGH THAT FAR OUT...STUCK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND LOW POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER THAN AVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO LATE AFTERNOON.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE IND TAF BASED UPON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CLOUD DECK IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF INDIANA. SOME CLEARING FOUND ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THUS EXPECTED
GRADUALLY IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS BY THIS EVENING.

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 161200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

IFR THIS MORNING...MVFR THIS AFTERNOON...VFR THIS EVENING.

BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...LOOKS LIKE AREA OF IFR CEILINGS WILL
OVERSPREAD ALL SITES /AT LEAST AT TIMES/ DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THERE WILL BE SCATTERED CONVECTION SO WILL INCLUDE VCSH. CANNOT RULE
OUT THUNDER...BUT BEST LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
SITES.

IMPROVEMENT OF CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...REACHING PREDOMINANT VFR AFTER 00Z. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH THAT MENTION WILL BE REMOVED BY 20Z OR SO.

DEPENDING ON IF RAIN FALLS AT A SITE AND HOW FAST CLEARING
OCCURS...SOME FOG MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 161436
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1036 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.  MODELS EJECT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MERGE IT WITH
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOLER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTENDING SOUTH
TO WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEING
PRODUCED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY...WHILE SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS AND LIKELY POPS IN OUR EAST TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT LOWER 70S ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THERE LATER TODAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVES OUR WAY BY FRIDAY.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ALSO MOVE
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST MODELS MOVE A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AND THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  ONLY
MENTIONED THUNDER IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ONLY
HAVE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN A 100 J/KG.  IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON MOST PERIODS.  HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWERING CHANCES MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.

MODELS DO DIFFER ON WHETHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE GFS BRINGING IN RAIN WITH A FRONT AND THE ECMWF REMAINING DRY.
WITH UNCERTAINTY RELATIVELY HIGH THAT FAR OUT...STUCK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND LOW POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER THAN AVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO LATE AFTERNOON.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE IND TAF BASED UPON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CLOUD DECK IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF INDIANA. SOME CLEARING FOUND ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THUS EXPECTED
GRADUALLY IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS BY THIS EVENING.

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 161200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

IFR THIS MORNING...MVFR THIS AFTERNOON...VFR THIS EVENING.

BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...LOOKS LIKE AREA OF IFR CEILINGS WILL
OVERSPREAD ALL SITES /AT LEAST AT TIMES/ DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THERE WILL BE SCATTERED CONVECTION SO WILL INCLUDE VCSH. CANNOT RULE
OUT THUNDER...BUT BEST LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
SITES.

IMPROVEMENT OF CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...REACHING PREDOMINANT VFR AFTER 00Z. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH THAT MENTION WILL BE REMOVED BY 20Z OR SO.

DEPENDING ON IF RAIN FALLS AT A SITE AND HOW FAST CLEARING
OCCURS...SOME FOG MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 161418
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1016 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.  MODELS EJECT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MERGE IT WITH
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOLER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY PASSING NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH ACTIVITY ON THE RADAR AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE ORGANIZED LIFT FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY WILL JUST BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. BASED
ON THIS...WILL DROP THE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA DUE TO LINGERING RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER TROUGH.

CURRENT HIGHS TODAY STILL LOOK OK...SO NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTENDING SOUTH
TO WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEING
PRODUCED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY...WHILE SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS AND LIKELY POPS IN OUR EAST TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT LOWER 70S ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THERE LATER TODAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVES OUR WAY BY FRIDAY.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ALSO MOVE
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST MODELS MOVE A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AND THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  ONLY
MENTIONED THUNDER IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ONLY
HAVE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN A 100 J/KG.  IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON MOST PERIODS.  HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWERING CHANCES MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.

MODELS DO DIFFER ON WHETHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE GFS BRINGING IN RAIN WITH A FRONT AND THE ECMWF REMAINING DRY.
WITH UNCERTAINTY RELATIVELY HIGH THAT FAR OUT...STUCK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND LOW POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER THAN AVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

IFR THIS MORNING...MVFR THIS AFTERNOON...VFR THIS EVENING.

BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...LOOKS LIKE AREA OF IFR CEILINGS WILL
OVERSPREAD ALL SITES /AT LEAST AT TIMES/ DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THERE WILL BE SCATTERED CONVECTION SO WILL INCLUDE VCSH. CANNOT RULE
OUT THUNDER...BUT BEST LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
SITES.

IMPROVEMENT OF CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...REACHING PREDOMINANT VFR AFTER 00Z. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH THAT MENTION WILL BE REMOVED BY 20Z OR SO.

DEPENDING ON IF RAIN FALLS AT A SITE AND HOW FAST CLEARING
OCCURS...SOME FOG MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/JAS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 161418
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1016 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.  MODELS EJECT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MERGE IT WITH
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOLER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY PASSING NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH ACTIVITY ON THE RADAR AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE ORGANIZED LIFT FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY WILL JUST BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. BASED
ON THIS...WILL DROP THE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA DUE TO LINGERING RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER TROUGH.

CURRENT HIGHS TODAY STILL LOOK OK...SO NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTENDING SOUTH
TO WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEING
PRODUCED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY...WHILE SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS AND LIKELY POPS IN OUR EAST TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT LOWER 70S ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THERE LATER TODAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVES OUR WAY BY FRIDAY.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ALSO MOVE
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST MODELS MOVE A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AND THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  ONLY
MENTIONED THUNDER IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ONLY
HAVE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN A 100 J/KG.  IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON MOST PERIODS.  HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWERING CHANCES MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.

MODELS DO DIFFER ON WHETHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE GFS BRINGING IN RAIN WITH A FRONT AND THE ECMWF REMAINING DRY.
WITH UNCERTAINTY RELATIVELY HIGH THAT FAR OUT...STUCK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND LOW POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER THAN AVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

IFR THIS MORNING...MVFR THIS AFTERNOON...VFR THIS EVENING.

BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...LOOKS LIKE AREA OF IFR CEILINGS WILL
OVERSPREAD ALL SITES /AT LEAST AT TIMES/ DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THERE WILL BE SCATTERED CONVECTION SO WILL INCLUDE VCSH. CANNOT RULE
OUT THUNDER...BUT BEST LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
SITES.

IMPROVEMENT OF CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...REACHING PREDOMINANT VFR AFTER 00Z. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH THAT MENTION WILL BE REMOVED BY 20Z OR SO.

DEPENDING ON IF RAIN FALLS AT A SITE AND HOW FAST CLEARING
OCCURS...SOME FOG MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/JAS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 161030
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.  MODELS EJECT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MERGE IT WITH
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOLER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTENDING SOUTH
TO WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEING
PRODUCED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY...WHILE SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS AND LIKELY POPS IN OUR EAST TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT LOWER 70S ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THERE LATER TODAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVES OUR WAY BY FRIDAY.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ALSO MOVE
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST MODELS MOVE A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AND THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  ONLY
MENTIONED THUNDER IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ONLY
HAVE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN A 100 J/KG.  IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON MOST PERIODS.  HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWERING CHANCES MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.

MODELS DO DIFFER ON WHETHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE GFS BRINGING IN RAIN WITH A FRONT AND THE ECMWF REMAINING DRY.
WITH UNCERTAINTY RELATIVELY HIGH THAT FAR OUT...STUCK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND LOW POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER THAN AVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

IFR THIS MORNING...MVFR THIS AFTERNOON...VFR THIS EVENING.

BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...LOOKS LIKE AREA OF IFR CEILINGS WILL
OVERSPREAD ALL SITES /AT LEAST AT TIMES/ DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THERE WILL BE SCATTERED CONVECTION SO WILL INCLUDE VCSH. CANNOT RULE
OUT THUNDER...BUT BEST LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
SITES.

IMPROVEMENT OF CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...REACHING PREDOMINANT VFR AFTER 00Z. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH THAT MENTION WILL BE REMOVED BY 20Z OR SO.

DEPENDING ON IF RAIN FALLS AT A SITE AND HOW FAST CLEARING
OCCURS...SOME FOG MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 161030
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.  MODELS EJECT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MERGE IT WITH
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOLER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTENDING SOUTH
TO WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEING
PRODUCED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY...WHILE SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS AND LIKELY POPS IN OUR EAST TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT LOWER 70S ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THERE LATER TODAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVES OUR WAY BY FRIDAY.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ALSO MOVE
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST MODELS MOVE A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AND THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  ONLY
MENTIONED THUNDER IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ONLY
HAVE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN A 100 J/KG.  IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON MOST PERIODS.  HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWERING CHANCES MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.

MODELS DO DIFFER ON WHETHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE GFS BRINGING IN RAIN WITH A FRONT AND THE ECMWF REMAINING DRY.
WITH UNCERTAINTY RELATIVELY HIGH THAT FAR OUT...STUCK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND LOW POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER THAN AVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

IFR THIS MORNING...MVFR THIS AFTERNOON...VFR THIS EVENING.

BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...LOOKS LIKE AREA OF IFR CEILINGS WILL
OVERSPREAD ALL SITES /AT LEAST AT TIMES/ DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THERE WILL BE SCATTERED CONVECTION SO WILL INCLUDE VCSH. CANNOT RULE
OUT THUNDER...BUT BEST LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
SITES.

IMPROVEMENT OF CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...REACHING PREDOMINANT VFR AFTER 00Z. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH THAT MENTION WILL BE REMOVED BY 20Z OR SO.

DEPENDING ON IF RAIN FALLS AT A SITE AND HOW FAST CLEARING
OCCURS...SOME FOG MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 160830
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.  MODELS EJECT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MERGE IT WITH
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOLER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTENDING SOUTH
TO WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEING
PRODUCED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY...WHILE SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS AND LIKELY POPS IN OUR EAST TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT LOWER 70S ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THERE LATER TODAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVES OUR WAY BY FRIDAY.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ALSO MOVE
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST MODELS MOVE A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AND THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  ONLY
MENTIONED THUNDER IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ONLY
HAVE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN A 100 J/KG.  IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON MOST PERIODS.  HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWERING CHANCES MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.

MODELS DO DIFFER ON WHETHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE GFS BRINGING IN RAIN WITH A FRONT AND THE ECMWF REMAINING DRY.
WITH UNCERTAINTY RELATIVELY HIGH THAT FAR OUT...STUCK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND LOW POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER THAN AVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 160900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

KIND REMAINS ON THE EDGE OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER LOOKING UPSTREAM EXPECT CEILINGS TO DIP TO MVFR BY 10Z. AREA
OF SHRA WILL EXIT THE AREA SHORTLY BUT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE MOMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
EXPECT SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING BACK TO VFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF IFR BUT WIDESPREAD IFR IS LOOKING A BIT LESS LIKELY
THAN PREVIOUSLY.

SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE SITES FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY...BUT IS
LOW PROBABILITY ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM MENTION.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST INITIALLY...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...NIELD/50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 160830
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.  MODELS EJECT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MERGE IT WITH
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOLER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTENDING SOUTH
TO WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEING
PRODUCED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY...WHILE SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS AND LIKELY POPS IN OUR EAST TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT LOWER 70S ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THERE LATER TODAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVES OUR WAY BY FRIDAY.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ALSO MOVE
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST MODELS MOVE A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AND THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  ONLY
MENTIONED THUNDER IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ONLY
HAVE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN A 100 J/KG.  IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON MOST PERIODS.  HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWERING CHANCES MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.

MODELS DO DIFFER ON WHETHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE GFS BRINGING IN RAIN WITH A FRONT AND THE ECMWF REMAINING DRY.
WITH UNCERTAINTY RELATIVELY HIGH THAT FAR OUT...STUCK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND LOW POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER THAN AVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 160900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

KIND REMAINS ON THE EDGE OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER LOOKING UPSTREAM EXPECT CEILINGS TO DIP TO MVFR BY 10Z. AREA
OF SHRA WILL EXIT THE AREA SHORTLY BUT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE MOMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
EXPECT SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING BACK TO VFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF IFR BUT WIDESPREAD IFR IS LOOKING A BIT LESS LIKELY
THAN PREVIOUSLY.

SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE SITES FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY...BUT IS
LOW PROBABILITY ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM MENTION.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST INITIALLY...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...NIELD/50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 160747
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.  MODELS EJECT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MERGE IT WITH
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOLER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTENDING SOUTH
TO WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEING
PRODUCED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY...WHILE SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS AND LIKELY POPS IN OUR EAST TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT LOWER 70S ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THERE LATER TODAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVES OUR WAY BY FRIDAY.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ALSO MOVE
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST MODELS MOVE A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AND THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  ONLY
MENTIONED THUNDER IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ONLY
HAVE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN A 100 J/KG.  IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON MOST PERIODS.  HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWERING CHANCES MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.

MODELS DO DIFFER ON WHETHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE GFS BRINGING IN RAIN WITH A FRONT AND THE ECMWF REMAINING DRY.
WITH UNCERTAINTY RELATIVELY HIGH THAT FAR OUT...STUCK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND LOW POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER THAN AVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 16/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

EXPECT SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING BACK TO VFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF IFR BUT WIDESPREAD IFR IS LOOKING A BIT LESS LIKELY
THAN PREVIOUSLY.

SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE SITES FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY...BUT IS
LOW PROBABILITY ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM MENTION.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST INITIALLY...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 160707
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
307 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

BASED ON RADAR ECHO AND LIGHTNING DATA TRENDS...SPC MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE PROGS AND HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS...SPED UP
POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT HELD BACK THUNDERSTORM MENTION
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. MODEL DATA SUGGEST
LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNSET...WITH THIS
AREA WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SEEM
RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THERE ISN/T MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AT THIS TIME AND RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW.
NEVERTHELESS...APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH THERE TO SUGGEST MOST PLACES
HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH POPS INCREASING
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK
GOOD FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS INDICATE TONIGHT/S DISTURBANCE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN THESE AREA...TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE/DISORGANIZED LIFT MAY REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THEN.

MOST OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW STARTS TO GET
KICKED OUT. USUALLY...THIS PROCESS IS SLOWER THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST...SO FOR NOW WILL ONLY PUT SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LEAVE THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL NUDGE THE NUMBERS DOWN A BIT IN THOSE AREAS.
THE LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWERING CHANCES MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.

MODELS DO DIFFER ON WHETHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE GFS BRINGING IN RAIN WITH A FRONT AND THE ECMWF REMAINING DRY.
WITH UNCERTAINTY RELATIVELY HIGH THAT FAR OUT...STUCK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND LOW POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER THAN AVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 16/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

EXPECT SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING BACK TO VFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF IFR BUT WIDESPREAD IFR IS LOOKING A BIT LESS LIKELY
THAN PREVIOUSLY.

SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE SITES FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY...BUT IS
LOW PROBABILITY ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM MENTION.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST INITIALLY...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 160707
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
307 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

BASED ON RADAR ECHO AND LIGHTNING DATA TRENDS...SPC MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE PROGS AND HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS...SPED UP
POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT HELD BACK THUNDERSTORM MENTION
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. MODEL DATA SUGGEST
LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNSET...WITH THIS
AREA WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SEEM
RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THERE ISN/T MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AT THIS TIME AND RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW.
NEVERTHELESS...APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH THERE TO SUGGEST MOST PLACES
HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH POPS INCREASING
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK
GOOD FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS INDICATE TONIGHT/S DISTURBANCE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN THESE AREA...TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE/DISORGANIZED LIFT MAY REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THEN.

MOST OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW STARTS TO GET
KICKED OUT. USUALLY...THIS PROCESS IS SLOWER THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST...SO FOR NOW WILL ONLY PUT SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LEAVE THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL NUDGE THE NUMBERS DOWN A BIT IN THOSE AREAS.
THE LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWERING CHANCES MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.

MODELS DO DIFFER ON WHETHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE GFS BRINGING IN RAIN WITH A FRONT AND THE ECMWF REMAINING DRY.
WITH UNCERTAINTY RELATIVELY HIGH THAT FAR OUT...STUCK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND LOW POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER THAN AVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 16/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

EXPECT SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING BACK TO VFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF IFR BUT WIDESPREAD IFR IS LOOKING A BIT LESS LIKELY
THAN PREVIOUSLY.

SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE SITES FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY...BUT IS
LOW PROBABILITY ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM MENTION.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST INITIALLY...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 160434
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1234 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

BASED ON RADAR ECHO AND LIGHTNING DATA TRENDS...SPC MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE PROGS AND HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS...SPED UP
POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT HELD BACK THUNDERSTORM MENTION
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. MODEL DATA SUGGEST
LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNSET...WITH THIS
AREA WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SEEM
RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THERE ISN/T MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AT THIS TIME AND RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW.
NEVERTHELESS...APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH THERE TO SUGGEST MOST PLACES
HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH POPS INCREASING
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK
GOOD FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS INDICATE TONIGHT/S DISTURBANCE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN THESE AREA...TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE/DISORGANIZED LIFT MAY REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THEN.

MOST OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW STARTS TO GET
KICKED OUT. USUALLY...THIS PROCESS IS SLOWER THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST...SO FOR NOW WILL ONLY PUT SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LEAVE THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL NUDGE THE NUMBERS DOWN A BIT IN THOSE AREAS.
THE LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UNSETTLED AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE LOW WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY DEEPENING ENERGY ALOFT DIVING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...RESULTING IN A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER
TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PINWHEEL INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY WITH COOLER
AND MAINLY DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN AROUND BEHIND THE WAVE. SEVERAL
SMALLER WAVES ALOFT WILL TRACK THROUGH AS THE TROUGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BRING A FEW PERIODIC SHOWERS MIDWEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. COULD SEE
LOWS IN THE 40S POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 30S IN SOME AREAS BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 16/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

EXPECT SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING BACK TO VFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF IFR BUT WIDESPREAD IFR IS LOOKING A BIT LESS LIKELY
THAN PREVIOUSLY.

SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE SITES FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY...BUT IS
LOW PROBABILITY ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM MENTION.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST INITIALLY...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 160434
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1234 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

BASED ON RADAR ECHO AND LIGHTNING DATA TRENDS...SPC MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE PROGS AND HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS...SPED UP
POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT HELD BACK THUNDERSTORM MENTION
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. MODEL DATA SUGGEST
LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNSET...WITH THIS
AREA WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SEEM
RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THERE ISN/T MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AT THIS TIME AND RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW.
NEVERTHELESS...APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH THERE TO SUGGEST MOST PLACES
HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH POPS INCREASING
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK
GOOD FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS INDICATE TONIGHT/S DISTURBANCE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN THESE AREA...TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE/DISORGANIZED LIFT MAY REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THEN.

MOST OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW STARTS TO GET
KICKED OUT. USUALLY...THIS PROCESS IS SLOWER THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST...SO FOR NOW WILL ONLY PUT SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LEAVE THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL NUDGE THE NUMBERS DOWN A BIT IN THOSE AREAS.
THE LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UNSETTLED AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE LOW WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY DEEPENING ENERGY ALOFT DIVING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...RESULTING IN A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER
TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PINWHEEL INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY WITH COOLER
AND MAINLY DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN AROUND BEHIND THE WAVE. SEVERAL
SMALLER WAVES ALOFT WILL TRACK THROUGH AS THE TROUGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BRING A FEW PERIODIC SHOWERS MIDWEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. COULD SEE
LOWS IN THE 40S POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 30S IN SOME AREAS BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 16/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

EXPECT SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING BACK TO VFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF IFR BUT WIDESPREAD IFR IS LOOKING A BIT LESS LIKELY
THAN PREVIOUSLY.

SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE SITES FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY...BUT IS
LOW PROBABILITY ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM MENTION.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST INITIALLY...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 152304
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
704 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

BASED ON RADAR ECHO AND LIGHTNING DATA TRENDS...SPC MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE PROGS AND HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS...SPED UP
POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT HELD BACK THUNDERSTORM MENTION
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. MODEL DATA SUGGEST
LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNSET...WITH THIS
AREA WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SEEM
RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THERE ISN/T MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AT THIS TIME AND RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW.
NEVERTHELESS...APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH THERE TO SUGGEST MOST PLACES
HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH POPS INCREASING
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK
GOOD FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS INDICATE TONIGHT/S DISTURBANCE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN THESE AREA...TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE/DISORGANIZED LIFT MAY REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THEN.

MOST OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW STARTS TO GET
KICKED OUT. USUALLY...THIS PROCESS IS SLOWER THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST...SO FOR NOW WILL ONLY PUT SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LEAVE THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL NUDGE THE NUMBERS DOWN A BIT IN THOSE AREAS.
THE LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UNSETTLED AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE LOW WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY DEEPENING ENERGY ALOFT DIVING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...RESULTING IN A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER
TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PINWHEEL INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY WITH COOLER
AND MAINLY DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN AROUND BEHIND THE WAVE. SEVERAL
SMALLER WAVES ALOFT WILL TRACK THROUGH AS THE TROUGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BRING A FEW PERIODIC SHOWERS MIDWEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. COULD SEE
LOWS IN THE 40S POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 30S IN SOME AREAS BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 16/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR LATER THIS
EVENING AND FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY MORNING.

INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AS A
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT
THE SITES FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY.
THUNDER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT TONIGHT...BUT APPEARS UNLIKELY
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTING FOR AT LEAST A WHILE THIS EVENING BEFORE
RELAXING A BIT OVERNIGHT. WILL BE EASTERLY MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHERLY TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 152304
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
704 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

BASED ON RADAR ECHO AND LIGHTNING DATA TRENDS...SPC MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE PROGS AND HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS...SPED UP
POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT HELD BACK THUNDERSTORM MENTION
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. MODEL DATA SUGGEST
LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNSET...WITH THIS
AREA WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SEEM
RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THERE ISN/T MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AT THIS TIME AND RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW.
NEVERTHELESS...APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH THERE TO SUGGEST MOST PLACES
HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH POPS INCREASING
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK
GOOD FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS INDICATE TONIGHT/S DISTURBANCE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN THESE AREA...TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE/DISORGANIZED LIFT MAY REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THEN.

MOST OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW STARTS TO GET
KICKED OUT. USUALLY...THIS PROCESS IS SLOWER THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST...SO FOR NOW WILL ONLY PUT SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LEAVE THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL NUDGE THE NUMBERS DOWN A BIT IN THOSE AREAS.
THE LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UNSETTLED AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE LOW WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY DEEPENING ENERGY ALOFT DIVING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...RESULTING IN A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER
TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PINWHEEL INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY WITH COOLER
AND MAINLY DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN AROUND BEHIND THE WAVE. SEVERAL
SMALLER WAVES ALOFT WILL TRACK THROUGH AS THE TROUGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BRING A FEW PERIODIC SHOWERS MIDWEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. COULD SEE
LOWS IN THE 40S POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 30S IN SOME AREAS BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 16/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR LATER THIS
EVENING AND FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY MORNING.

INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AS A
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT
THE SITES FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY.
THUNDER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT TONIGHT...BUT APPEARS UNLIKELY
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTING FOR AT LEAST A WHILE THIS EVENING BEFORE
RELAXING A BIT OVERNIGHT. WILL BE EASTERLY MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHERLY TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 152304
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
704 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

BASED ON RADAR ECHO AND LIGHTNING DATA TRENDS...SPC MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE PROGS AND HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS...SPED UP
POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT HELD BACK THUNDERSTORM MENTION
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. MODEL DATA SUGGEST
LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNSET...WITH THIS
AREA WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SEEM
RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THERE ISN/T MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AT THIS TIME AND RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW.
NEVERTHELESS...APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH THERE TO SUGGEST MOST PLACES
HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH POPS INCREASING
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK
GOOD FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS INDICATE TONIGHT/S DISTURBANCE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN THESE AREA...TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE/DISORGANIZED LIFT MAY REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THEN.

MOST OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW STARTS TO GET
KICKED OUT. USUALLY...THIS PROCESS IS SLOWER THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST...SO FOR NOW WILL ONLY PUT SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LEAVE THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL NUDGE THE NUMBERS DOWN A BIT IN THOSE AREAS.
THE LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UNSETTLED AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE LOW WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY DEEPENING ENERGY ALOFT DIVING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...RESULTING IN A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER
TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PINWHEEL INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY WITH COOLER
AND MAINLY DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN AROUND BEHIND THE WAVE. SEVERAL
SMALLER WAVES ALOFT WILL TRACK THROUGH AS THE TROUGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BRING A FEW PERIODIC SHOWERS MIDWEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. COULD SEE
LOWS IN THE 40S POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 30S IN SOME AREAS BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 16/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR LATER THIS
EVENING AND FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY MORNING.

INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AS A
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT
THE SITES FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY.
THUNDER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT TONIGHT...BUT APPEARS UNLIKELY
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTING FOR AT LEAST A WHILE THIS EVENING BEFORE
RELAXING A BIT OVERNIGHT. WILL BE EASTERLY MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHERLY TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 152304
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
704 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

BASED ON RADAR ECHO AND LIGHTNING DATA TRENDS...SPC MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE PROGS AND HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS...SPED UP
POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT HELD BACK THUNDERSTORM MENTION
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. MODEL DATA SUGGEST
LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNSET...WITH THIS
AREA WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SEEM
RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THERE ISN/T MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AT THIS TIME AND RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW.
NEVERTHELESS...APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH THERE TO SUGGEST MOST PLACES
HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH POPS INCREASING
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK
GOOD FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS INDICATE TONIGHT/S DISTURBANCE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN THESE AREA...TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE/DISORGANIZED LIFT MAY REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THEN.

MOST OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW STARTS TO GET
KICKED OUT. USUALLY...THIS PROCESS IS SLOWER THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST...SO FOR NOW WILL ONLY PUT SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LEAVE THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL NUDGE THE NUMBERS DOWN A BIT IN THOSE AREAS.
THE LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UNSETTLED AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE LOW WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY DEEPENING ENERGY ALOFT DIVING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...RESULTING IN A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER
TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PINWHEEL INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY WITH COOLER
AND MAINLY DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN AROUND BEHIND THE WAVE. SEVERAL
SMALLER WAVES ALOFT WILL TRACK THROUGH AS THE TROUGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BRING A FEW PERIODIC SHOWERS MIDWEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. COULD SEE
LOWS IN THE 40S POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 30S IN SOME AREAS BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 16/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR LATER THIS
EVENING AND FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY MORNING.

INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AS A
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT
THE SITES FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY.
THUNDER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT TONIGHT...BUT APPEARS UNLIKELY
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTING FOR AT LEAST A WHILE THIS EVENING BEFORE
RELAXING A BIT OVERNIGHT. WILL BE EASTERLY MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHERLY TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 152251
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
650 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. MODEL DATA SUGGEST
LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNSET...WITH THIS
AREA WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SEEM
RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THERE ISN/T MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AT THIS TIME AND RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW.
NEVERTHELESS...APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH THERE TO SUGGEST MOST PLACES
HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH POPS INCREASING
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK
GOOD FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS INDICATE TONIGHT/S DISTURBANCE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN THESE AREA...TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE/DISORGANIZED LIFT MAY REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THEN.

MOST OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW STARTS TO GET
KICKED OUT. USUALLY...THIS PROCESS IS SLOWER THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST...SO FOR NOW WILL ONLY PUT SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LEAVE THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL NUDGE THE NUMBERS DOWN A BIT IN THOSE AREAS.
THE LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UNSETTLED AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE LOW WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY DEEPENING ENERGY ALOFT DIVING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...RESULTING IN A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER
TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PINWHEEL INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY WITH COOLER
AND MAINLY DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN AROUND BEHIND THE WAVE. SEVERAL
SMALLER WAVES ALOFT WILL TRACK THROUGH AS THE TROUGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BRING A FEW PERIODIC SHOWERS MIDWEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. COULD SEE
LOWS IN THE 40S POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 30S IN SOME AREAS BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 16/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR LATER THIS
EVENING AND FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY MORNING.

INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AS A
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT
THE SITES FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY.
THUNDER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT TONIGHT...BUT APPEARS UNLIKELY
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTING FOR AT LEAST A WHILE THIS EVENING BEFORE
RELAXING A BIT OVERNIGHT. WILL BE EASTERLY MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHERLY TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 152251
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
650 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. MODEL DATA SUGGEST
LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNSET...WITH THIS
AREA WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SEEM
RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THERE ISN/T MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AT THIS TIME AND RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW.
NEVERTHELESS...APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH THERE TO SUGGEST MOST PLACES
HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH POPS INCREASING
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK
GOOD FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS INDICATE TONIGHT/S DISTURBANCE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN THESE AREA...TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE/DISORGANIZED LIFT MAY REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THEN.

MOST OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW STARTS TO GET
KICKED OUT. USUALLY...THIS PROCESS IS SLOWER THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST...SO FOR NOW WILL ONLY PUT SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LEAVE THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL NUDGE THE NUMBERS DOWN A BIT IN THOSE AREAS.
THE LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UNSETTLED AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE LOW WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY DEEPENING ENERGY ALOFT DIVING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...RESULTING IN A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER
TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PINWHEEL INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY WITH COOLER
AND MAINLY DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN AROUND BEHIND THE WAVE. SEVERAL
SMALLER WAVES ALOFT WILL TRACK THROUGH AS THE TROUGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BRING A FEW PERIODIC SHOWERS MIDWEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. COULD SEE
LOWS IN THE 40S POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 30S IN SOME AREAS BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 16/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR LATER THIS
EVENING AND FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY MORNING.

INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AS A
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT
THE SITES FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY.
THUNDER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT TONIGHT...BUT APPEARS UNLIKELY
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTING FOR AT LEAST A WHILE THIS EVENING BEFORE
RELAXING A BIT OVERNIGHT. WILL BE EASTERLY MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHERLY TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 152251
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
650 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. MODEL DATA SUGGEST
LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNSET...WITH THIS
AREA WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SEEM
RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THERE ISN/T MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AT THIS TIME AND RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW.
NEVERTHELESS...APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH THERE TO SUGGEST MOST PLACES
HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH POPS INCREASING
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK
GOOD FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS INDICATE TONIGHT/S DISTURBANCE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN THESE AREA...TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE/DISORGANIZED LIFT MAY REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THEN.

MOST OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW STARTS TO GET
KICKED OUT. USUALLY...THIS PROCESS IS SLOWER THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST...SO FOR NOW WILL ONLY PUT SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LEAVE THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL NUDGE THE NUMBERS DOWN A BIT IN THOSE AREAS.
THE LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UNSETTLED AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE LOW WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY DEEPENING ENERGY ALOFT DIVING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...RESULTING IN A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER
TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PINWHEEL INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY WITH COOLER
AND MAINLY DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN AROUND BEHIND THE WAVE. SEVERAL
SMALLER WAVES ALOFT WILL TRACK THROUGH AS THE TROUGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BRING A FEW PERIODIC SHOWERS MIDWEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. COULD SEE
LOWS IN THE 40S POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 30S IN SOME AREAS BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 16/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR LATER THIS
EVENING AND FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY MORNING.

INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AS A
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT
THE SITES FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY.
THUNDER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT TONIGHT...BUT APPEARS UNLIKELY
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTING FOR AT LEAST A WHILE THIS EVENING BEFORE
RELAXING A BIT OVERNIGHT. WILL BE EASTERLY MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHERLY TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 152251
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
650 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. MODEL DATA SUGGEST
LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNSET...WITH THIS
AREA WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SEEM
RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THERE ISN/T MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AT THIS TIME AND RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW.
NEVERTHELESS...APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH THERE TO SUGGEST MOST PLACES
HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH POPS INCREASING
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK
GOOD FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS INDICATE TONIGHT/S DISTURBANCE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN THESE AREA...TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE/DISORGANIZED LIFT MAY REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THEN.

MOST OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW STARTS TO GET
KICKED OUT. USUALLY...THIS PROCESS IS SLOWER THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST...SO FOR NOW WILL ONLY PUT SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LEAVE THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL NUDGE THE NUMBERS DOWN A BIT IN THOSE AREAS.
THE LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UNSETTLED AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE LOW WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY DEEPENING ENERGY ALOFT DIVING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...RESULTING IN A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER
TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PINWHEEL INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY WITH COOLER
AND MAINLY DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN AROUND BEHIND THE WAVE. SEVERAL
SMALLER WAVES ALOFT WILL TRACK THROUGH AS THE TROUGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BRING A FEW PERIODIC SHOWERS MIDWEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. COULD SEE
LOWS IN THE 40S POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 30S IN SOME AREAS BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 16/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR LATER THIS
EVENING AND FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY MORNING.

INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AS A
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT
THE SITES FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY.
THUNDER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT TONIGHT...BUT APPEARS UNLIKELY
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTING FOR AT LEAST A WHILE THIS EVENING BEFORE
RELAXING A BIT OVERNIGHT. WILL BE EASTERLY MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHERLY TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 152022
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
422 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. MODEL DATA SUGGEST
LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNSET...WITH THIS
AREA WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SEEM
RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THERE ISN/T MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AT THIS TIME AND RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW.
NEVERTHELESS...APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH THERE TO SUGGEST MOST PLACES
HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH POPS INCREASING
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK
GOOD FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS INDICATE TONIGHT/S DISTURBANCE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN THESE AREA...TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE/DISORGANIZED LIFT MAY REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THEN.

MOST OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW STARTS TO GET
KICKED OUT. USUALLY...THIS PROCESS IS SLOWER THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST...SO FOR NOW WILL ONLY PUT SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LEAVE THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL NUDGE THE NUMBERS DOWN A BIT IN THOSE AREAS.
THE LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UNSETTLED AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE LOW WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY DEEPENING ENERGY ALOFT DIVING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...RESULTING IN A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER
TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PINWHEEL INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY WITH COOLER
AND MAINLY DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN AROUND BEHIND THE WAVE. SEVERAL
SMALLER WAVES ALOFT WILL TRACK THROUGH AS THE TROUGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BRING A FEW PERIODIC SHOWERS MIDWEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. COULD SEE
LOWS IN THE 40S POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 30S IN SOME AREAS BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 15/21Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS REQUIRED MAINLY TO WIND DIRECTIONS AT SOME OF THE
SITES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING...CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

MUCH OF THE AREA ENJOYING SOME SUNSHINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
SPREADING PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE.
MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS AN AREA OF RAIN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT HAVE SOME CONCERNS
THAT THE AMOUNT OF THE DRY AIR NOT BEING SAMPLED ENTIRELY WITH
CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S OVER MANY AREAS. HAVE
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN UNTIL AFTER 00Z AT ALL
TERMINALS...AND LIKELY LATE EVENING AT BOTH KHUF AND KIND. RAIN
MAY NOT REACH KLAF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL RETURN TO
VCSH MENTION AT ALL SITES AFTER 07-09Z.

MVFR STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN OVERNIGHT...
WITH CEILINGS DROPPING FURTHER AS LOW LEVELS FULLY MOISTEN UP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEVELOPING SHALLOW INVERSION LATE TONIGHT
AS WELL...AND EXPECT CEILINGS AT 500-1000FT TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
FOR THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING TO CLOSER TO 10KTS OVERNIGHT AND 5-10KTS
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THEN MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 152022
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
422 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. MODEL DATA SUGGEST
LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNSET...WITH THIS
AREA WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SEEM
RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THERE ISN/T MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AT THIS TIME AND RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW.
NEVERTHELESS...APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH THERE TO SUGGEST MOST PLACES
HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH POPS INCREASING
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK
GOOD FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS INDICATE TONIGHT/S DISTURBANCE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN THESE AREA...TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE/DISORGANIZED LIFT MAY REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THEN.

MOST OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW STARTS TO GET
KICKED OUT. USUALLY...THIS PROCESS IS SLOWER THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST...SO FOR NOW WILL ONLY PUT SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LEAVE THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL NUDGE THE NUMBERS DOWN A BIT IN THOSE AREAS.
THE LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UNSETTLED AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE LOW WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY DEEPENING ENERGY ALOFT DIVING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...RESULTING IN A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER
TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PINWHEEL INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY WITH COOLER
AND MAINLY DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN AROUND BEHIND THE WAVE. SEVERAL
SMALLER WAVES ALOFT WILL TRACK THROUGH AS THE TROUGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BRING A FEW PERIODIC SHOWERS MIDWEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. COULD SEE
LOWS IN THE 40S POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 30S IN SOME AREAS BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 15/21Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS REQUIRED MAINLY TO WIND DIRECTIONS AT SOME OF THE
SITES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING...CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

MUCH OF THE AREA ENJOYING SOME SUNSHINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
SPREADING PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE.
MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS AN AREA OF RAIN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT HAVE SOME CONCERNS
THAT THE AMOUNT OF THE DRY AIR NOT BEING SAMPLED ENTIRELY WITH
CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S OVER MANY AREAS. HAVE
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN UNTIL AFTER 00Z AT ALL
TERMINALS...AND LIKELY LATE EVENING AT BOTH KHUF AND KIND. RAIN
MAY NOT REACH KLAF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL RETURN TO
VCSH MENTION AT ALL SITES AFTER 07-09Z.

MVFR STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN OVERNIGHT...
WITH CEILINGS DROPPING FURTHER AS LOW LEVELS FULLY MOISTEN UP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEVELOPING SHALLOW INVERSION LATE TONIGHT
AS WELL...AND EXPECT CEILINGS AT 500-1000FT TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
FOR THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING TO CLOSER TO 10KTS OVERNIGHT AND 5-10KTS
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THEN MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 152022
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
422 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. MODEL DATA SUGGEST
LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNSET...WITH THIS
AREA WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SEEM
RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THERE ISN/T MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AT THIS TIME AND RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW.
NEVERTHELESS...APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH THERE TO SUGGEST MOST PLACES
HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH POPS INCREASING
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK
GOOD FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS INDICATE TONIGHT/S DISTURBANCE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN THESE AREA...TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE/DISORGANIZED LIFT MAY REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THEN.

MOST OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW STARTS TO GET
KICKED OUT. USUALLY...THIS PROCESS IS SLOWER THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST...SO FOR NOW WILL ONLY PUT SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LEAVE THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL NUDGE THE NUMBERS DOWN A BIT IN THOSE AREAS.
THE LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UNSETTLED AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE LOW WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY DEEPENING ENERGY ALOFT DIVING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...RESULTING IN A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER
TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PINWHEEL INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY WITH COOLER
AND MAINLY DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN AROUND BEHIND THE WAVE. SEVERAL
SMALLER WAVES ALOFT WILL TRACK THROUGH AS THE TROUGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BRING A FEW PERIODIC SHOWERS MIDWEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. COULD SEE
LOWS IN THE 40S POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 30S IN SOME AREAS BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 15/21Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS REQUIRED MAINLY TO WIND DIRECTIONS AT SOME OF THE
SITES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING...CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

MUCH OF THE AREA ENJOYING SOME SUNSHINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
SPREADING PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE.
MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS AN AREA OF RAIN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT HAVE SOME CONCERNS
THAT THE AMOUNT OF THE DRY AIR NOT BEING SAMPLED ENTIRELY WITH
CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S OVER MANY AREAS. HAVE
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN UNTIL AFTER 00Z AT ALL
TERMINALS...AND LIKELY LATE EVENING AT BOTH KHUF AND KIND. RAIN
MAY NOT REACH KLAF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL RETURN TO
VCSH MENTION AT ALL SITES AFTER 07-09Z.

MVFR STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN OVERNIGHT...
WITH CEILINGS DROPPING FURTHER AS LOW LEVELS FULLY MOISTEN UP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEVELOPING SHALLOW INVERSION LATE TONIGHT
AS WELL...AND EXPECT CEILINGS AT 500-1000FT TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
FOR THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING TO CLOSER TO 10KTS OVERNIGHT AND 5-10KTS
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THEN MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 151858
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
258 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. MODEL DATA SUGGEST
LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNSET...WITH THIS
AREA WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SEEM
RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THERE ISN/T MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AT THIS TIME AND RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW.
NEVERTHELESS...APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH THERE TO SUGGEST MOST PLACES
HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH POPS INCREASING
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK
GOOD FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS INDICATE TONIGHT/S DISTURBANCE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN THESE AREA...TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE/DISORGANIZED LIFT MAY REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THEN.

MOST OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW STARTS TO GET
KICKED OUT. USUALLY...THIS PROCESS IS SLOWER THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST...SO FOR NOW WILL ONLY PUT SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LEAVE THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL NUDGE THE NUMBERS DOWN A BIT IN THOSE AREAS.
THE LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UNSETTLED AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE LOW WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY DEEPENING ENERGY ALOFT DIVING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...RESULTING IN A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER
TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PINWHEEL INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY WITH COOLER
AND MAINLY DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN AROUND BEHIND THE WAVE. SEVERAL
SMALLER WAVES ALOFT WILL TRACK THROUGH AS THE TROUGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BRING A FEW PERIODIC SHOWERS MIDWEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. COULD SEE
LOWS IN THE 40S POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 30S IN SOME AREAS BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 151800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING...CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

MUCH OF THE AREA ENJOYING SOME SUNSHINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
SPREADING PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE.
MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS AN AREA OF RAIN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT HAVE SOME CONCERNS
THAT THE AMOUNT OF THE DRY AIR NOT BEING SAMPLED ENTIRELY WITH
CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S OVER MANY AREAS. HAVE
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN UNTIL AFTER 00Z AT ALL
TERMINALS...AND LIKELY LATE EVENING AT BOTH KHUF AND KIND. RAIN
MAY NOT REACH KLAF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL RETURN TO
VCSH MENTION AT ALL SITES AFTER 07-09Z.

MVFR STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN OVERNIGHT...
WITH CEILINGS DROPPING FURTHER AS LOW LEVELS FULLY MOISTEN UP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEVELOPING SHALLOW INVERSION LATE TONIGHT
AS WELL...AND EXPECT CEILINGS AT 500-1000FT TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
FOR THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING TO CLOSER TO 10KTS OVERNIGHT AND 5-10KTS
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THEN MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 151858
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
258 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. MODEL DATA SUGGEST
LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNSET...WITH THIS
AREA WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SEEM
RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THERE ISN/T MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AT THIS TIME AND RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW.
NEVERTHELESS...APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH THERE TO SUGGEST MOST PLACES
HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH POPS INCREASING
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK
GOOD FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS INDICATE TONIGHT/S DISTURBANCE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN THESE AREA...TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE/DISORGANIZED LIFT MAY REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THEN.

MOST OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW STARTS TO GET
KICKED OUT. USUALLY...THIS PROCESS IS SLOWER THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST...SO FOR NOW WILL ONLY PUT SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LEAVE THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL NUDGE THE NUMBERS DOWN A BIT IN THOSE AREAS.
THE LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UNSETTLED AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE LOW WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY DEEPENING ENERGY ALOFT DIVING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...RESULTING IN A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER
TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PINWHEEL INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY WITH COOLER
AND MAINLY DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN AROUND BEHIND THE WAVE. SEVERAL
SMALLER WAVES ALOFT WILL TRACK THROUGH AS THE TROUGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BRING A FEW PERIODIC SHOWERS MIDWEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. COULD SEE
LOWS IN THE 40S POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 30S IN SOME AREAS BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 151800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING...CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

MUCH OF THE AREA ENJOYING SOME SUNSHINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
SPREADING PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE.
MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS AN AREA OF RAIN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT HAVE SOME CONCERNS
THAT THE AMOUNT OF THE DRY AIR NOT BEING SAMPLED ENTIRELY WITH
CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S OVER MANY AREAS. HAVE
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN UNTIL AFTER 00Z AT ALL
TERMINALS...AND LIKELY LATE EVENING AT BOTH KHUF AND KIND. RAIN
MAY NOT REACH KLAF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL RETURN TO
VCSH MENTION AT ALL SITES AFTER 07-09Z.

MVFR STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN OVERNIGHT...
WITH CEILINGS DROPPING FURTHER AS LOW LEVELS FULLY MOISTEN UP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEVELOPING SHALLOW INVERSION LATE TONIGHT
AS WELL...AND EXPECT CEILINGS AT 500-1000FT TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
FOR THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING TO CLOSER TO 10KTS OVERNIGHT AND 5-10KTS
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THEN MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 151858
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
258 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. MODEL DATA SUGGEST
LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNSET...WITH THIS
AREA WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SEEM
RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THERE ISN/T MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AT THIS TIME AND RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW.
NEVERTHELESS...APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH THERE TO SUGGEST MOST PLACES
HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH POPS INCREASING
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK
GOOD FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS INDICATE TONIGHT/S DISTURBANCE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN THESE AREA...TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE/DISORGANIZED LIFT MAY REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THEN.

MOST OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW STARTS TO GET
KICKED OUT. USUALLY...THIS PROCESS IS SLOWER THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST...SO FOR NOW WILL ONLY PUT SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LEAVE THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL NUDGE THE NUMBERS DOWN A BIT IN THOSE AREAS.
THE LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UNSETTLED AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE LOW WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY DEEPENING ENERGY ALOFT DIVING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...RESULTING IN A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER
TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PINWHEEL INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY WITH COOLER
AND MAINLY DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN AROUND BEHIND THE WAVE. SEVERAL
SMALLER WAVES ALOFT WILL TRACK THROUGH AS THE TROUGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BRING A FEW PERIODIC SHOWERS MIDWEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. COULD SEE
LOWS IN THE 40S POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 30S IN SOME AREAS BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 151800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING...CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

MUCH OF THE AREA ENJOYING SOME SUNSHINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
SPREADING PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE.
MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS AN AREA OF RAIN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT HAVE SOME CONCERNS
THAT THE AMOUNT OF THE DRY AIR NOT BEING SAMPLED ENTIRELY WITH
CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S OVER MANY AREAS. HAVE
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN UNTIL AFTER 00Z AT ALL
TERMINALS...AND LIKELY LATE EVENING AT BOTH KHUF AND KIND. RAIN
MAY NOT REACH KLAF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL RETURN TO
VCSH MENTION AT ALL SITES AFTER 07-09Z.

MVFR STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN OVERNIGHT...
WITH CEILINGS DROPPING FURTHER AS LOW LEVELS FULLY MOISTEN UP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEVELOPING SHALLOW INVERSION LATE TONIGHT
AS WELL...AND EXPECT CEILINGS AT 500-1000FT TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
FOR THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING TO CLOSER TO 10KTS OVERNIGHT AND 5-10KTS
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THEN MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 151858
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
258 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. MODEL DATA SUGGEST
LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNSET...WITH THIS
AREA WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SEEM
RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THERE ISN/T MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AT THIS TIME AND RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW.
NEVERTHELESS...APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH THERE TO SUGGEST MOST PLACES
HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH POPS INCREASING
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK
GOOD FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS INDICATE TONIGHT/S DISTURBANCE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN THESE AREA...TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE/DISORGANIZED LIFT MAY REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THEN.

MOST OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW STARTS TO GET
KICKED OUT. USUALLY...THIS PROCESS IS SLOWER THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST...SO FOR NOW WILL ONLY PUT SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LEAVE THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL NUDGE THE NUMBERS DOWN A BIT IN THOSE AREAS.
THE LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UNSETTLED AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE LOW WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY DEEPENING ENERGY ALOFT DIVING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...RESULTING IN A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER
TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PINWHEEL INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY WITH COOLER
AND MAINLY DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN AROUND BEHIND THE WAVE. SEVERAL
SMALLER WAVES ALOFT WILL TRACK THROUGH AS THE TROUGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BRING A FEW PERIODIC SHOWERS MIDWEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. COULD SEE
LOWS IN THE 40S POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 30S IN SOME AREAS BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 151800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING...CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

MUCH OF THE AREA ENJOYING SOME SUNSHINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
SPREADING PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE.
MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS AN AREA OF RAIN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT HAVE SOME CONCERNS
THAT THE AMOUNT OF THE DRY AIR NOT BEING SAMPLED ENTIRELY WITH
CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S OVER MANY AREAS. HAVE
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN UNTIL AFTER 00Z AT ALL
TERMINALS...AND LIKELY LATE EVENING AT BOTH KHUF AND KIND. RAIN
MAY NOT REACH KLAF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL RETURN TO
VCSH MENTION AT ALL SITES AFTER 07-09Z.

MVFR STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN OVERNIGHT...
WITH CEILINGS DROPPING FURTHER AS LOW LEVELS FULLY MOISTEN UP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEVELOPING SHALLOW INVERSION LATE TONIGHT
AS WELL...AND EXPECT CEILINGS AT 500-1000FT TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
FOR THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING TO CLOSER TO 10KTS OVERNIGHT AND 5-10KTS
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THEN MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 151834
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
234 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. MODEL DATA SUGGEST
LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNSET...WITH THIS
AREA WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SEEM
RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THERE ISN/T MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AT THIS TIME AND RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW.
NEVERTHELESS...APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH THERE TO SUGGEST MOST PLACES
HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH POPS INCREASING
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK
GOOD FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS INDICATE TONIGHT/S DISTURBANCE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN THESE AREA...TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE/DISORGANIZED LIFT MAY REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THEN.

MOST OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW STARTS TO GET
KICKED OUT. USUALLY...THIS PROCESS IS SLOWER THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST...SO FOR NOW WILL ONLY PUT SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LEAVE THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL NUDGE THE NUMBERS DOWN A BIT IN THOSE AREAS.
THE LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS STILL ARE DIFFERING ON HOW AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN USA AND WEAKEN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FOR THIS TOOK AN
AVERAGE BETWEEN MODELS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH ENDS UP NEAR
THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION. OTHERWISE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

KEPT LOW POPS SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE STILL OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OTHERWISE DURING THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
AREA A FEW FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH PROVIDING FREQUENT CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP POPS IN EVERY DAY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON DURATION OF THE RAIN EACH DAY...BUT FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH READINGS NEAR AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. READINGS WILL COOL SOME ON TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH GAINS
MORE INFLUENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 151800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING...CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

MUCH OF THE AREA ENJOYING SOME SUNSHINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
SPREADING PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE.
MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS AN AREA OF RAIN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT HAVE SOME CONCERNS
THAT THE AMOUNT OF THE DRY AIR NOT BEING SAMPLED ENTIRELY WITH
CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S OVER MANY AREAS. HAVE
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN UNTIL AFTER 00Z AT ALL
TERMINALS...AND LIKELY LATE EVENING AT BOTH KHUF AND KIND. RAIN
MAY NOT REACH KLAF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL RETURN TO
VCSH MENTION AT ALL SITES AFTER 07-09Z.

MVFR STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN OVERNIGHT...
WITH CEILINGS DROPPING FURTHER AS LOW LEVELS FULLY MOISTEN UP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEVELOPING SHALLOW INVERSION LATE TONIGHT
AS WELL...AND EXPECT CEILINGS AT 500-1000FT TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
FOR THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING TO CLOSER TO 10KTS OVERNIGHT AND 5-10KTS
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THEN MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 151834
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
234 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. MODEL DATA SUGGEST
LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNSET...WITH THIS
AREA WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SEEM
RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THERE ISN/T MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AT THIS TIME AND RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW.
NEVERTHELESS...APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH THERE TO SUGGEST MOST PLACES
HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH POPS INCREASING
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK
GOOD FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS INDICATE TONIGHT/S DISTURBANCE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN THESE AREA...TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE/DISORGANIZED LIFT MAY REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THEN.

MOST OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW STARTS TO GET
KICKED OUT. USUALLY...THIS PROCESS IS SLOWER THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST...SO FOR NOW WILL ONLY PUT SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LEAVE THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL NUDGE THE NUMBERS DOWN A BIT IN THOSE AREAS.
THE LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS STILL ARE DIFFERING ON HOW AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN USA AND WEAKEN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FOR THIS TOOK AN
AVERAGE BETWEEN MODELS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH ENDS UP NEAR
THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION. OTHERWISE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

KEPT LOW POPS SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE STILL OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OTHERWISE DURING THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
AREA A FEW FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH PROVIDING FREQUENT CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP POPS IN EVERY DAY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON DURATION OF THE RAIN EACH DAY...BUT FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH READINGS NEAR AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. READINGS WILL COOL SOME ON TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH GAINS
MORE INFLUENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 151800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING...CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

MUCH OF THE AREA ENJOYING SOME SUNSHINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
SPREADING PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE.
MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS AN AREA OF RAIN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT HAVE SOME CONCERNS
THAT THE AMOUNT OF THE DRY AIR NOT BEING SAMPLED ENTIRELY WITH
CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S OVER MANY AREAS. HAVE
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN UNTIL AFTER 00Z AT ALL
TERMINALS...AND LIKELY LATE EVENING AT BOTH KHUF AND KIND. RAIN
MAY NOT REACH KLAF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL RETURN TO
VCSH MENTION AT ALL SITES AFTER 07-09Z.

MVFR STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN OVERNIGHT...
WITH CEILINGS DROPPING FURTHER AS LOW LEVELS FULLY MOISTEN UP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEVELOPING SHALLOW INVERSION LATE TONIGHT
AS WELL...AND EXPECT CEILINGS AT 500-1000FT TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
FOR THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING TO CLOSER TO 10KTS OVERNIGHT AND 5-10KTS
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THEN MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 151834
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
234 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. MODEL DATA SUGGEST
LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNSET...WITH THIS
AREA WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SEEM
RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THERE ISN/T MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AT THIS TIME AND RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW.
NEVERTHELESS...APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH THERE TO SUGGEST MOST PLACES
HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH POPS INCREASING
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK
GOOD FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS INDICATE TONIGHT/S DISTURBANCE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN THESE AREA...TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE/DISORGANIZED LIFT MAY REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THEN.

MOST OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW STARTS TO GET
KICKED OUT. USUALLY...THIS PROCESS IS SLOWER THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST...SO FOR NOW WILL ONLY PUT SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LEAVE THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL NUDGE THE NUMBERS DOWN A BIT IN THOSE AREAS.
THE LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS STILL ARE DIFFERING ON HOW AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN USA AND WEAKEN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FOR THIS TOOK AN
AVERAGE BETWEEN MODELS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH ENDS UP NEAR
THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION. OTHERWISE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

KEPT LOW POPS SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE STILL OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OTHERWISE DURING THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
AREA A FEW FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH PROVIDING FREQUENT CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP POPS IN EVERY DAY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON DURATION OF THE RAIN EACH DAY...BUT FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH READINGS NEAR AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. READINGS WILL COOL SOME ON TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH GAINS
MORE INFLUENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 151800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING...CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

MUCH OF THE AREA ENJOYING SOME SUNSHINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
SPREADING PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE.
MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS AN AREA OF RAIN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT HAVE SOME CONCERNS
THAT THE AMOUNT OF THE DRY AIR NOT BEING SAMPLED ENTIRELY WITH
CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S OVER MANY AREAS. HAVE
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN UNTIL AFTER 00Z AT ALL
TERMINALS...AND LIKELY LATE EVENING AT BOTH KHUF AND KIND. RAIN
MAY NOT REACH KLAF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL RETURN TO
VCSH MENTION AT ALL SITES AFTER 07-09Z.

MVFR STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN OVERNIGHT...
WITH CEILINGS DROPPING FURTHER AS LOW LEVELS FULLY MOISTEN UP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEVELOPING SHALLOW INVERSION LATE TONIGHT
AS WELL...AND EXPECT CEILINGS AT 500-1000FT TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
FOR THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING TO CLOSER TO 10KTS OVERNIGHT AND 5-10KTS
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THEN MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 151834
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
234 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. MODEL DATA SUGGEST
LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNSET...WITH THIS
AREA WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SEEM
RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THERE ISN/T MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AT THIS TIME AND RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW.
NEVERTHELESS...APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH THERE TO SUGGEST MOST PLACES
HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH POPS INCREASING
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK
GOOD FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS INDICATE TONIGHT/S DISTURBANCE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN THESE AREA...TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE/DISORGANIZED LIFT MAY REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THEN.

MOST OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW STARTS TO GET
KICKED OUT. USUALLY...THIS PROCESS IS SLOWER THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST...SO FOR NOW WILL ONLY PUT SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LEAVE THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL NUDGE THE NUMBERS DOWN A BIT IN THOSE AREAS.
THE LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS STILL ARE DIFFERING ON HOW AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN USA AND WEAKEN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FOR THIS TOOK AN
AVERAGE BETWEEN MODELS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH ENDS UP NEAR
THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION. OTHERWISE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

KEPT LOW POPS SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE STILL OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OTHERWISE DURING THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
AREA A FEW FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH PROVIDING FREQUENT CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP POPS IN EVERY DAY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON DURATION OF THE RAIN EACH DAY...BUT FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH READINGS NEAR AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. READINGS WILL COOL SOME ON TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH GAINS
MORE INFLUENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 151800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING...CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

MUCH OF THE AREA ENJOYING SOME SUNSHINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
SPREADING PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE.
MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS AN AREA OF RAIN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT HAVE SOME CONCERNS
THAT THE AMOUNT OF THE DRY AIR NOT BEING SAMPLED ENTIRELY WITH
CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S OVER MANY AREAS. HAVE
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN UNTIL AFTER 00Z AT ALL
TERMINALS...AND LIKELY LATE EVENING AT BOTH KHUF AND KIND. RAIN
MAY NOT REACH KLAF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL RETURN TO
VCSH MENTION AT ALL SITES AFTER 07-09Z.

MVFR STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN OVERNIGHT...
WITH CEILINGS DROPPING FURTHER AS LOW LEVELS FULLY MOISTEN UP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEVELOPING SHALLOW INVERSION LATE TONIGHT
AS WELL...AND EXPECT CEILINGS AT 500-1000FT TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
FOR THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING TO CLOSER TO 10KTS OVERNIGHT AND 5-10KTS
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THEN MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 151712
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
112 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WILL MOVE ON TO THE
EAST AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES TO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY.  THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.   AFTER THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES BY...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST WILL BE THE
RULE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FINALLY EJECTS TO
THE NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRY WEATHER BY
DAY 7 AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY. SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST LIFT
PROBABLY WON/T ARRIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES UNTIL TOWARDS
EVENING...SO WILL BACK OFF ON THE TIMING OF THE POPS IN THOSE AREA
MORE TOWARDS EVENING.

THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR SUGGESTS TODAY/S HIGHS MAY BE TOO COOL.
PROBABLY WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST CLOUD COVER INCREASES LATER TODAY.
FOR NOW...WILL RIDE WITH THE CURRENT HIGHS AND MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS
AS THE DAY GOES BY.

WILL ALSO RAISE THE WINDS A BIT HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THIS
MORNING/S UPPER AIR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MOST AREAS TODAY.  SOME
MODELS INDICATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD REACH FAR SOUTHERN AREAS
LATE TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON FROM VINCENNES TO SEYMOUR.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WHICH IS NEAR A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A CLOSED UPPER UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND MODELS
MOVE AN DISTURBANCE OUR WAY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BY THURSDAY.  WENT WITH CHANCE POPS BY LATE EVENING AND THEN
LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT AS MODELS
HAVE TRENDED WETTER.  MOST MODELS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWER.

THURSDAY WILL START OUT WET...BUT WITH SOME DRYING BY LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ON TO THE EAST.  MODELS INDICATE
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FROM LATE
THURSDAY EVENING ON AS AN WEAK UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS OVER
OUR REGION.  WENT MOSTLY DRY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS FRIDAY
AND CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUR WAY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT PER MODELS. BUT
MOST MODELS ARE DRY...WHILE THE NAM REMAINS AS A WET OUTLIER.  WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THEN AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY
KEEPING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.  BUT SOUTHWEST AREAS MAY REACH
LOWER 70S AS CLOUDS THIN OUT SOME THERE BY LATE THURSDAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75.  WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS STILL ARE DIFFERING ON HOW AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN USA AND WEAKEN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FOR THIS TOOK AN
AVERAGE BETWEEN MODELS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH ENDS UP NEAR
THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION. OTHERWISE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

KEPT LOW POPS SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE STILL OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OTHERWISE DURING THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
AREA A FEW FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH PROVIDING FREQUENT CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP POPS IN EVERY DAY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON DURATION OF THE RAIN EACH DAY...BUT FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH READINGS NEAR AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. READINGS WILL COOL SOME ON TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH GAINS
MORE INFLUENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 151800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING...CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

MUCH OF THE AREA ENJOYING SOME SUNSHINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
SPREADING PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE.
MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS AN AREA OF RAIN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT HAVE SOME CONCERNS
THAT THE AMOUNT OF THE DRY AIR NOT BEING SAMPLED ENTIRELY WITH
CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S OVER MANY AREAS. HAVE
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN UNTIL AFTER 00Z AT ALL
TERMINALS...AND LIKELY LATE EVENING AT BOTH KHUF AND KIND. RAIN
MAY NOT REACH KLAF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL RETURN TO
VCSH MENTION AT ALL SITES AFTER 07-09Z.

MVFR STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN OVERNIGHT...
WITH CEILINGS DROPPING FURTHER AS LOW LEVELS FULLY MOISTEN UP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEVELOPING SHALLOW INVERSION LATE TONIGHT
AS WELL...AND EXPECT CEILINGS AT 500-1000FT TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
FOR THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING TO CLOSER TO 10KTS OVERNIGHT AND 5-10KTS
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THEN MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/JAS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 151712
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
112 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WILL MOVE ON TO THE
EAST AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES TO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY.  THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.   AFTER THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES BY...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST WILL BE THE
RULE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FINALLY EJECTS TO
THE NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRY WEATHER BY
DAY 7 AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY. SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST LIFT
PROBABLY WON/T ARRIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES UNTIL TOWARDS
EVENING...SO WILL BACK OFF ON THE TIMING OF THE POPS IN THOSE AREA
MORE TOWARDS EVENING.

THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR SUGGESTS TODAY/S HIGHS MAY BE TOO COOL.
PROBABLY WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST CLOUD COVER INCREASES LATER TODAY.
FOR NOW...WILL RIDE WITH THE CURRENT HIGHS AND MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS
AS THE DAY GOES BY.

WILL ALSO RAISE THE WINDS A BIT HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THIS
MORNING/S UPPER AIR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MOST AREAS TODAY.  SOME
MODELS INDICATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD REACH FAR SOUTHERN AREAS
LATE TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON FROM VINCENNES TO SEYMOUR.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WHICH IS NEAR A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A CLOSED UPPER UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND MODELS
MOVE AN DISTURBANCE OUR WAY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BY THURSDAY.  WENT WITH CHANCE POPS BY LATE EVENING AND THEN
LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT AS MODELS
HAVE TRENDED WETTER.  MOST MODELS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWER.

THURSDAY WILL START OUT WET...BUT WITH SOME DRYING BY LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ON TO THE EAST.  MODELS INDICATE
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FROM LATE
THURSDAY EVENING ON AS AN WEAK UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS OVER
OUR REGION.  WENT MOSTLY DRY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS FRIDAY
AND CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUR WAY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT PER MODELS. BUT
MOST MODELS ARE DRY...WHILE THE NAM REMAINS AS A WET OUTLIER.  WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THEN AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY
KEEPING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.  BUT SOUTHWEST AREAS MAY REACH
LOWER 70S AS CLOUDS THIN OUT SOME THERE BY LATE THURSDAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75.  WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS STILL ARE DIFFERING ON HOW AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN USA AND WEAKEN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FOR THIS TOOK AN
AVERAGE BETWEEN MODELS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH ENDS UP NEAR
THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION. OTHERWISE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

KEPT LOW POPS SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE STILL OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OTHERWISE DURING THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
AREA A FEW FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH PROVIDING FREQUENT CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP POPS IN EVERY DAY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON DURATION OF THE RAIN EACH DAY...BUT FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH READINGS NEAR AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. READINGS WILL COOL SOME ON TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH GAINS
MORE INFLUENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 151800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING...CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

MUCH OF THE AREA ENJOYING SOME SUNSHINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
SPREADING PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE.
MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS AN AREA OF RAIN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT HAVE SOME CONCERNS
THAT THE AMOUNT OF THE DRY AIR NOT BEING SAMPLED ENTIRELY WITH
CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S OVER MANY AREAS. HAVE
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN UNTIL AFTER 00Z AT ALL
TERMINALS...AND LIKELY LATE EVENING AT BOTH KHUF AND KIND. RAIN
MAY NOT REACH KLAF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL RETURN TO
VCSH MENTION AT ALL SITES AFTER 07-09Z.

MVFR STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN OVERNIGHT...
WITH CEILINGS DROPPING FURTHER AS LOW LEVELS FULLY MOISTEN UP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEVELOPING SHALLOW INVERSION LATE TONIGHT
AS WELL...AND EXPECT CEILINGS AT 500-1000FT TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
FOR THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING TO CLOSER TO 10KTS OVERNIGHT AND 5-10KTS
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THEN MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/JAS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 151712
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
112 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WILL MOVE ON TO THE
EAST AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES TO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY.  THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.   AFTER THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES BY...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST WILL BE THE
RULE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FINALLY EJECTS TO
THE NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRY WEATHER BY
DAY 7 AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY. SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST LIFT
PROBABLY WON/T ARRIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES UNTIL TOWARDS
EVENING...SO WILL BACK OFF ON THE TIMING OF THE POPS IN THOSE AREA
MORE TOWARDS EVENING.

THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR SUGGESTS TODAY/S HIGHS MAY BE TOO COOL.
PROBABLY WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST CLOUD COVER INCREASES LATER TODAY.
FOR NOW...WILL RIDE WITH THE CURRENT HIGHS AND MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS
AS THE DAY GOES BY.

WILL ALSO RAISE THE WINDS A BIT HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THIS
MORNING/S UPPER AIR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MOST AREAS TODAY.  SOME
MODELS INDICATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD REACH FAR SOUTHERN AREAS
LATE TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON FROM VINCENNES TO SEYMOUR.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WHICH IS NEAR A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A CLOSED UPPER UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND MODELS
MOVE AN DISTURBANCE OUR WAY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BY THURSDAY.  WENT WITH CHANCE POPS BY LATE EVENING AND THEN
LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT AS MODELS
HAVE TRENDED WETTER.  MOST MODELS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWER.

THURSDAY WILL START OUT WET...BUT WITH SOME DRYING BY LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ON TO THE EAST.  MODELS INDICATE
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FROM LATE
THURSDAY EVENING ON AS AN WEAK UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS OVER
OUR REGION.  WENT MOSTLY DRY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS FRIDAY
AND CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUR WAY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT PER MODELS. BUT
MOST MODELS ARE DRY...WHILE THE NAM REMAINS AS A WET OUTLIER.  WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THEN AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY
KEEPING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.  BUT SOUTHWEST AREAS MAY REACH
LOWER 70S AS CLOUDS THIN OUT SOME THERE BY LATE THURSDAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75.  WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS STILL ARE DIFFERING ON HOW AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN USA AND WEAKEN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FOR THIS TOOK AN
AVERAGE BETWEEN MODELS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH ENDS UP NEAR
THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION. OTHERWISE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

KEPT LOW POPS SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE STILL OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OTHERWISE DURING THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
AREA A FEW FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH PROVIDING FREQUENT CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP POPS IN EVERY DAY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON DURATION OF THE RAIN EACH DAY...BUT FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH READINGS NEAR AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. READINGS WILL COOL SOME ON TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH GAINS
MORE INFLUENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 151800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING...CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

MUCH OF THE AREA ENJOYING SOME SUNSHINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
SPREADING PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE.
MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS AN AREA OF RAIN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT HAVE SOME CONCERNS
THAT THE AMOUNT OF THE DRY AIR NOT BEING SAMPLED ENTIRELY WITH
CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S OVER MANY AREAS. HAVE
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN UNTIL AFTER 00Z AT ALL
TERMINALS...AND LIKELY LATE EVENING AT BOTH KHUF AND KIND. RAIN
MAY NOT REACH KLAF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL RETURN TO
VCSH MENTION AT ALL SITES AFTER 07-09Z.

MVFR STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN OVERNIGHT...
WITH CEILINGS DROPPING FURTHER AS LOW LEVELS FULLY MOISTEN UP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEVELOPING SHALLOW INVERSION LATE TONIGHT
AS WELL...AND EXPECT CEILINGS AT 500-1000FT TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
FOR THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING TO CLOSER TO 10KTS OVERNIGHT AND 5-10KTS
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THEN MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/JAS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 151712
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
112 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WILL MOVE ON TO THE
EAST AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES TO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY.  THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.   AFTER THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES BY...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST WILL BE THE
RULE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FINALLY EJECTS TO
THE NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRY WEATHER BY
DAY 7 AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY. SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST LIFT
PROBABLY WON/T ARRIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES UNTIL TOWARDS
EVENING...SO WILL BACK OFF ON THE TIMING OF THE POPS IN THOSE AREA
MORE TOWARDS EVENING.

THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR SUGGESTS TODAY/S HIGHS MAY BE TOO COOL.
PROBABLY WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST CLOUD COVER INCREASES LATER TODAY.
FOR NOW...WILL RIDE WITH THE CURRENT HIGHS AND MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS
AS THE DAY GOES BY.

WILL ALSO RAISE THE WINDS A BIT HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THIS
MORNING/S UPPER AIR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MOST AREAS TODAY.  SOME
MODELS INDICATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD REACH FAR SOUTHERN AREAS
LATE TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON FROM VINCENNES TO SEYMOUR.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WHICH IS NEAR A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A CLOSED UPPER UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND MODELS
MOVE AN DISTURBANCE OUR WAY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BY THURSDAY.  WENT WITH CHANCE POPS BY LATE EVENING AND THEN
LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT AS MODELS
HAVE TRENDED WETTER.  MOST MODELS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWER.

THURSDAY WILL START OUT WET...BUT WITH SOME DRYING BY LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ON TO THE EAST.  MODELS INDICATE
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FROM LATE
THURSDAY EVENING ON AS AN WEAK UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS OVER
OUR REGION.  WENT MOSTLY DRY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS FRIDAY
AND CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUR WAY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT PER MODELS. BUT
MOST MODELS ARE DRY...WHILE THE NAM REMAINS AS A WET OUTLIER.  WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THEN AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY
KEEPING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.  BUT SOUTHWEST AREAS MAY REACH
LOWER 70S AS CLOUDS THIN OUT SOME THERE BY LATE THURSDAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75.  WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS STILL ARE DIFFERING ON HOW AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN USA AND WEAKEN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FOR THIS TOOK AN
AVERAGE BETWEEN MODELS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH ENDS UP NEAR
THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION. OTHERWISE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

KEPT LOW POPS SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE STILL OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OTHERWISE DURING THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
AREA A FEW FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH PROVIDING FREQUENT CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP POPS IN EVERY DAY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON DURATION OF THE RAIN EACH DAY...BUT FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH READINGS NEAR AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. READINGS WILL COOL SOME ON TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH GAINS
MORE INFLUENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 151800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING...CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

MUCH OF THE AREA ENJOYING SOME SUNSHINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
SPREADING PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE.
MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS AN AREA OF RAIN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT HAVE SOME CONCERNS
THAT THE AMOUNT OF THE DRY AIR NOT BEING SAMPLED ENTIRELY WITH
CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S OVER MANY AREAS. HAVE
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN UNTIL AFTER 00Z AT ALL
TERMINALS...AND LIKELY LATE EVENING AT BOTH KHUF AND KIND. RAIN
MAY NOT REACH KLAF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL RETURN TO
VCSH MENTION AT ALL SITES AFTER 07-09Z.

MVFR STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN OVERNIGHT...
WITH CEILINGS DROPPING FURTHER AS LOW LEVELS FULLY MOISTEN UP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEVELOPING SHALLOW INVERSION LATE TONIGHT
AS WELL...AND EXPECT CEILINGS AT 500-1000FT TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
FOR THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING TO CLOSER TO 10KTS OVERNIGHT AND 5-10KTS
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THEN MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/JAS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RYAN

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