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000
FXUS63 KIND 240408
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1208 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide another dry day on Tuesday, then chances
of rain will return Tuesday night and continue through the holiday
weekend as various upper waves move across the area. Temperatures
will remain above average.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...

No important changes are needed at this time. High pressure thin
high clouds over southwest sections and clear skies elsewhere.  Should
see a little more high thin clouds by morning.  Kept lows from near 50
to lower 50s over east sections as well as Bloomington area and middle
50s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Focus is on chances for rain through the period. Models are close
enough with the big picture, and uncertainty high enough in the
details, that a blend was used.

Upper ridging and the surface high will keep Tuesday warm and dry.

Beginning Tuesday night, a few upper impulses will move across the
area during the short term. Models, as is typical, differ on timing
and impact of these impulses as they move through. Thus will not try
and get too detailed in PoPs Wednesday on.

The atmosphere should take a while to moisten up Tuesday night, and
better forcing should not arrive until the latter part of the night.
Thus only went slight chance PoPs during the evening, with chance
PoPs overnight.

Went chance pops Wednesday through Thursday, since the uncertainty
precludes going any higher.

Generally stuck with a blend on temperatures. Of course temperatures
could be cooler or even a little warmer during the afternoons
depending on convection (or lack thereof).

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
Active weather pattern expected during this period as the ECMWF
suggests SW flow in place aloft building into ridging across the
East Coast. Warm and moist southerly flow will remain place across
Central Indiana as several weak but poorly organized upper
disturbances push through the ohio valley. Surface features
appear poorly organized and confidence for precip would be higher
if something was in place to aid forcing. However given the warm
and moist air mass and the occasional short wave along with
diurnal heating...diurnal showers and thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out as superblend suggests. Given the SW flow...above normal
temps are expected.


&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 24/0600Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 1205 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016

VFR conditions will still prevail for the duration of this TAF
period.  However, mid clouds will increase late in the period as an
upper wave approaches...bringing rain showers after WED 06Z. Winds
will veer from the southeast to southwest with sustained speeds of 5
to 10 kts.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 240139
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
940 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Near term for the rest of tonight has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

High pressure will provide another dry day on Tuesday, then chances
of rain will return Tuesday night and continue through the holiday
weekend as various upper waves move across the area. Temperatures
will remain above average.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Rest of Tonight/
Issued at 940 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

No important changes are needed at this time. High pressure thin
high clouds over southwest sections and clear skies elsewhere.  Should
see a little more high thin clouds by morning.  Kept lows from near 50
to lower 50s over east sections as well as Bloomington area and middle
50s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tuesday through Thursday/
Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Focus is on chances for rain through the period. Models are close
enough with the big picture, and uncertainty high enough in the
details, that a blend was used.

Upper ridging and the surface high will keep Tuesday warm and dry.

Beginning Tuesday night, a few upper impulses will move across the
area during the short term. Models, as is typical, differ on timing
and impact of these impulses as they move through. Thus will not try
and get too detailed in PoPs Wednesday on.

The atmosphere should take a while to moisten up Tuesday night, and
better forcing should not arrive until the latter part of the night.
Thus only went slight chance PoPs during the evening, with chance
PoPs overnight.

Went chance pops Wednesday through Thursday, since the uncertainty
precludes going any higher.

Generally stuck with a blend on temperatures. Of course temperatures
could be cooler or even a little warmer during the afternoons
depending on convection (or lack thereof).

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...

Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Active weather pattern expected during this period as the ECMWF
suggests SW flow in place aloft building into ridging across the
East Coast. Warm and moist southerly flow will remain place across
Central Indiana as several weak but poorly organized upper
disturbances push through the ohio valley. Surface features
appear poorly organized and confidence for precip would be higher
if something was in place to aid forcing. However given the warm
and moist air mass and the occasional short wave along with
diurnal heating...diurnal showers and thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out as superblend suggests. Given the SW flow...above normal
temps are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 24/0000Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 747 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

VFR conditions will prevail for duration of TAF period as Central
Indiana remains under the influence of high pressure. Mid clouds
will increase late in the period though as an upper wave
approaches...bringing rain showers starting tomorrow night. Winds
will veer from the southeast to southwest through the TAF period
with sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 232350
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
750 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

High pressure will provide another dry day on Tuesday, then chances
of rain will return Tuesday night and continue through the holiday
weekend as various upper waves move across the area. Temperatures
will remain above average.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/
Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

High pressure will continue to provide mostly clear to clear skies
through the night. Winds will be light again. With these conditions
went again closer the MOS numbers for low temperatures, which
performed well last night.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tuesday through Thursday/
Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Focus is on chances for rain through the period. Models are close
enough with the big picture, and uncertainty high enough in the
details, that a blend was used.

Upper ridging and the surface high will keep Tuesday warm and dry.

Beginning Tuesday night, a few upper impulses will move across the
area during the short term. Models, as is typical, differ on timing
and impact of these impulses as they move through. Thus will not try
and get too detailed in PoPs Wednesday on.

The atmosphere should take a while to moisten up Tuesday night, and
better forcing should not arrive until the latter part of the night.
Thus only went slight chance PoPs during the evening, with chance
PoPs overnight.

Went chance pops Wednesday through Thursday, since the uncertainty
precludes going any higher.

Generally stuck with a blend on temperatures. Of course temperatures
could be cooler or even a little warmer during the afternoons
depending on convection (or lack thereof).

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...

Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Active weather pattern expected during this period as the ECMWF
suggests SW flow in place aloft building into ridging across the
East Coast. Warm and moist southerly flow will remain place across
Central Indiana as several weak but poorly organized upper
disturbances push through the ohio valley. Surface features
appear poorly organized and confidence for precip would be higher
if something was in place to aid forcing. However given the warm
and moist air mass and the occasional short wave along with
diurnal heating...diurnal showers and thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out as superblend suggests. Given the SW flow...above normal
temps are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 24/0000Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 747 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

VFR conditions will prevail for duration of TAF period as Central
Indiana remains under the influence of high pressure. Mid clouds
will increase late in the period though as an upper wave
approaches...bringing rain showers starting tomorrow night. Winds
will veer from the southeast to southwest through the TAF period
with sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 232022
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
422 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

High pressure will provide another dry day on Tuesday, then chances
of rain will return Tuesday night and continue through the holiday
weekend as various upper waves move across the area. Temperatures
will remain above average.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/
Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

High pressure will continue to provide mostly clear to clear skies
through the night. Winds will be light again. With these conditions
went again closer the MOS numbers for low temperatures, which
performed well last night.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tuesday through Thursday/
Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Focus is on chances for rain through the period. Models are close
enough with the big picture, and uncertainty high enough in the
details, that a blend was used.

Upper ridging and the surface high will keep Tuesday warm and dry.

Beginning Tuesday night, a few upper impulses will move across the
area during the short term. Models, as is typical, differ on timing
and impact of these impulses as they move through. Thus will not try
and get too detailed in PoPs Wednesday on.

The atmosphere should take a while to moisten up Tuesday night, and
better forcing should not arrive until the latter part of the night.
Thus only went slight chance PoPs during the evening, with chance
PoPs overnight.

Went chance pops Wednesday through Thursday, since the uncertainty
precludes going any higher.

Generally stuck with a blend on temperatures. Of course temperatures
could be cooler or even a little warmer during the afternoons
depending on convection (or lack thereof).

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...

Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Active weather pattern expected during this period as the ECMWF
suggests SW flow in place aloft building into ridging across the
East Coast. Warm and moist southerly flow will remain place across
Central Indiana as several weak but poorly organized upper
disturbances push through the ohio valley. Surface features
appear poorly organized and confidence for precip would be higher
if something was in place to aid forcing. However given the warm
and moist air mass and the occasional short wave along with
diurnal heating...diurnal showers and thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out as superblend suggests. Given the SW flow...above normal
temps are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 23/2100Z TAF Update/...

Issued at 416 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

UPDATE...
No changes.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR conditions will remain in place during this taf period.

High pressure and associated subsidence will remain across the taf
sites through the course of the TAF period. Forecast soundings and
time height sections show a dry column. Convective temps show
reachable values on Tuesday...thus have trended toward some SCT VFR
CU then.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 231826
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
226 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, and SHORT TERM sections have been
updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

High pressure will provide another dry day on Tuesday, then chances
of rain will return Tuesday night and continue through the holiday
weekend as various upper waves move across the area. Temperatures
will remain above average.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/
Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

High pressure will continue to provide mostly clear to clear skies
through the night. Winds will be light again. With these conditions
went again closer the MOS numbers for low temperatures, which
performed well last night.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tuesday through Thursday/
Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Focus is on chances for rain through the period. Models are close
enough with the big picture, and uncertainty high enough in the
details, that a blend was used.

Upper ridging and the surface high will keep Tuesday warm and dry.

Beginning Tuesday night, a few upper impulses will move across the
area during the short term. Models, as is typical, differ on timing
and impact of these impulses as they move through. Thus will not try
and get too detailed in PoPs Wednesday on.

The atmosphere should take a while to moisten up Tuesday night, and
better forcing should not arrive until the latter part of the night.
Thus only went slight chance PoPs during the evening, with chance
PoPs overnight.

Went chance pops Wednesday through Thursday, since the uncertainty
precludes going any higher.

Generally stuck with a blend on temperatures. Of course temperatures
could be cooler or even a little warmer during the afternoons
depending on convection (or lack thereof).

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...

Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Active weather pattern expected during this period as the ECMWF
suggests SW flow in place aloft building into ridging across the
East Coast. Warm and moist southerly flow will remain place across
Central Indiana as several weak but poorly organized upper
disturbances push through the ohio valley. Surface features
appear poorly organized and confidence for precip would be higher
if something was in place to aid forcing. However given the warm
and moist air mass and the occasional short wave along with
diurnal heating...diurnal showers and thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out as superblend suggests. Given the SW flow...above normal
temps are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /discussion for the 231800Z tafs/...

Issued at 1256 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

VFR conditions will remain in place during this taf period.

High pressure and associated subsidence will remain across the taf
sites through the course of the TAF period. Forecast soundings and
time height sections show a dry column. Convective temps show
reachable values on Tuesday...thus have trended toward some SCT VFR
CU then.


&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 231747
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
147 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

High pressure is expected across the area into Tuesday. A frontal
system is expected to affect the area towards the middle and end
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 939 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Forecast is in good shape. Tweaked high temperatures up in some
locations, but no significant changes made.

Previous discussion follows...

Dry weather expected today under upper ridge and surface high
pressure. Little in the way of significant cloud cover expected
with low humidity values throughout the atmospheric column.

Progged low level thicknesses generally support the GFS MOS highs
for today, so only minor adjustments planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday night/...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Model data suggest upper ridge will flatten out towards the middle
of the week. At the surface, a frontal system is expected to drop
south from the Great Lakes, possibly as far south as northern
Indiana by Wednesday. 850mb flow into the front not particularly
strong, about 20-25 kts, but the location of enhanced flow is in a
favorable area for convective development in the local area by
late Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Model data also
suggest the eastern fringes of a large EML plume over the Plains
may move into the area by Wednesday. Given the above, will
continue with chance PoPs starting Tuesday night through the end
of the short term.

Based on progged low level thicknesses, the GFS MOS temperature
guidance for the short term looks reasonable. Little, if any,
adjustments planned.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...

Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Active weather pattern expected during this period as the ECMWF
suggests SW flow in place aloft building into ridging across the
East Coast. Warm and moist southerly flow will remain place across
Central Indiana as several weak but poorly organized upper
disturbances push through the ohio valley. Surface features
appear poorly organized and confidence for precip would be higher
if something was in place to aid forcing. However given the warm
and moist air mass and the occasional short wave along with
diurnal heating...diurnal showers and thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out as superblend suggests. Given the SW flow...above normal
temps are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /discussion for the 231800Z tafs/...

Issued at 1256 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

VFR conditions will remain in place during this taf period.

High pressure and associated subsidence will remain across the taf
sites through the course of the TAF period. Forecast soundings and
time height sections show a dry column. Convective temps show
reachable values on Tuesday...thus have trended toward some SCT VFR
CU then.


&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/50
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 231414
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1014 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
AVIATION section updated

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

High pressure is expected across the area into Tuesday. A frontal
system is expected to affect the area towards the middle and end
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 939 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Forecast is in good shape. Tweaked high temperatures up in some
locations, but no significant changes made.

Previous discussion follows...

Dry weather expected today under upper ridge and surface high
pressure. Little in the way of significant cloud cover expected
with low humidity values throughout the atmospheric column.

Progged low level thicknesses generally support the GFS MOS highs
for today, so only minor adjustments planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday night/...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Model data suggest upper ridge will flatten out towards the middle
of the week. At the surface, a frontal system is expected to drop
south from the Great Lakes, possibly as far south as northern
Indiana by Wednesday. 850mb flow into the front not particularly
strong, about 20-25 kts, but the location of enhanced flow is in a
favorable area for convective development in the local area by
late Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Model data also
suggest the eastern fringes of a large EML plume over the Plains
may move into the area by Wednesday. Given the above, will
continue with chance PoPs starting Tuesday night through the end
of the short term.

Based on progged low level thicknesses, the GFS MOS temperature
guidance for the short term looks reasonable. Little, if any,
adjustments planned.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Main focus regarding the long term will continue to be on
thunderstorms and temperatures.

Nothing has changed much over the last few days as the models and
ensembles continue to be similar in lifting a southwestern upper
trough northeast before it gets deflected by a strong eastern ridge
northward to the western Great Lakes on Sunday. Meanwhile...warm...moist
and unstable flow off the Gulf of Mexico will interact with
numerous impulses ejecting northeast around the base of the upper
trough toward the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. This will be a
fertile breeding ground for thunderstorm chances throughout the
Holiday weekend per good chance regional blend pops.

The southerly flow should allow temperatures to top out in the lower
80s each day...despite the convection...per the regional blend. Dew
points should also climb well into the 60s...making it feel rather
humid.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 231500z ind taf update/...

VFR Conditions will continue.

High Pressure and strong ridging will remain in place across the
taf sites through the period. Ongoing tafs handle this well.
Forecast soundings show convective temperatures that are
unreachable...thus no afternoon CU is expected. Overall, ongoing
tafs are in good shape.

previous discussion below

/Discussion for the 23/1200Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 605 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Good confidence that VFR conditions will dominate the TAF period.
Any brief fog after 10z at the smaller airports should dissipate by
or very shortly after 12z. So...did not include it. Otherwise...high
pressure and a dry column will result in only high clouds at worst
though 18z Tuesday. Would not completely rule out brief fog 09z-
12z...but too far out and GFS LAMP and SREF do not support it.

Light northeast winds at IND will become southeast and south less
than 10 knots after 14z. The other sites will see a calm wind become
southeast and east less than 10 knots and calm again after 01z
Tuesday.


&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/50
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 231339
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
939 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

High pressure is expected across the area into Tuesday. A frontal
system is expected to affect the area towards the middle and end
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 939 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Forecast is in good shape. Tweaked high temperatures up in some
locations, but no significant changes made.

Previous discussion follows...

Dry weather expected today under upper ridge and surface high
pressure. Little in the way of significant cloud cover expected
with low humidity values throughout the atmospheric column.

Progged low level thicknesses generally support the GFS MOS highs
for today, so only minor adjustments planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday night/...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Model data suggest upper ridge will flatten out towards the middle
of the week. At the surface, a frontal system is expected to drop
south from the Great Lakes, possibly as far south as northern
Indiana by Wednesday. 850mb flow into the front not particularly
strong, about 20-25 kts, but the location of enhanced flow is in a
favorable area for convective development in the local area by
late Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Model data also
suggest the eastern fringes of a large EML plume over the Plains
may move into the area by Wednesday. Given the above, will
continue with chance PoPs starting Tuesday night through the end
of the short term.

Based on progged low level thicknesses, the GFS MOS temperature
guidance for the short term looks reasonable. Little, if any,
adjustments planned.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Main focus regarding the long term will continue to be on
thunderstorms and temperatures.

Nothing has changed much over the last few days as the models and
ensembles continue to be similar in lifting a southwestern upper
trough northeast before it gets deflected by a strong eastern ridge
northward to the western Great Lakes on Sunday. Meanwhile...warm...moist
and unstable flow off the Gulf of Mexico will interact with
numerous impulses ejecting northeast around the base of the upper
trough toward the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. This will be a
fertile breeding ground for thunderstorm chances throughout the
Holiday weekend per good chance regional blend pops.

The southerly flow should allow temperatures to top out in the lower
80s each day...despite the convection...per the regional blend. Dew
points should also climb well into the 60s...making it feel rather
humid.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 23/1200Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 605 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Good confidence that VFR conditions will dominate the TAF period.
Any brief fog after 10z at the smaller airports should dissipate by
or very shortly after 12z. So...did not include it. Otherwise...high
pressure and a dry column will result in only high clouds at worst
though 18z Tuesday. Would not completely rule out brief fog 09z-
12z...but too far out and GFS LAMP and SREF do not support it.

Light northeast winds at IND will become southeast and south less
than 10 knots after 14z. The other sites will see a calm wind become
southeast and east less than 10 knots and calm again after 01z
Tuesday.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/50
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 230648
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
248 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated
below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

High pressure is expected across the area into Tuesday. A frontal
system is expected to affect the area towards the middle and end
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Dry weather expected today under upper ridge and surface high
pressure. Little in the way of significant cloud cover expected
with low humidity values throughout the atmospheric column.

Progged low level thicknesses generally support the GFS MOS highs
for today, so only minor adjustments planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday night/...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Model data suggest upper ridge will flatten out towards the middle
of the week. At the surface, a frontal system is expected to drop
south from the Great Lakes, possibly as far south as northern
Indiana by Wednesday. 850mb flow into the front not particularly
strong, about 20-25 kts, but the location of enhanced flow is in a
favorable area for convective development in the local area by
late Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Model data also
suggest the eastern fringes of a large EML plume over the Plains
may move into the area by Wednesday. Given the above, will
continue with chance PoPs starting Tuesday night through the end
of the short term.

Based on progged low level thicknesses, the GFS MOS temperature
guidance for the short term looks reasonable. Little, if any,
adjustments planned.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Main focus regarding the long term will continue to be on
thunderstorms and temperatures.

Nothing has changed much over the last few days as the models and
ensembles continue to be similar in lifting a southwestern upper
trough northeast before it gets deflected by a strong eastern ridge
northward to the western Great Lakes on Sunday. Meanwhile...warm...moist
and unstable flow off the Gulf of Mexico will interact with
numerous impulses ejecting northeast around the base of the upper
trough toward the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. This will be a
fertile breeding ground for thunderstorm chances throughout the
Holiday weekend per good chance regional blend pops.

The southerly flow should allow temperatures to top out in the lower
80s each day...despite the convection...per the regional blend. Dew
points should also climb well into the 60s...making it feel rather
humid.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 23/0600Z TAFS/...
Issued at 1238 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

VFR conditions will prevail for duration of TAF period as high
pressure remains in place. Winds will start out northerly and
gradually veer to the southeast and then southwest through the
course of the TAF period. Sustained speeds will range between 5 to
10 kts.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 230620
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
220 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
The Long term section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

High pressure will provide dry and warm conditions through the day
Tuesday, then an upper level trough and a surface frontal system
will bring chances for rain through the holiday weekend.
Temperatures will remain above average.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Rest of Tonight/
Issued at 927 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Clear skies will continue overnight as ridge of high pressure moves
east across our region. Overall current forecast with lows from the
mid to upper 40s northeast to the lower 50s southwest is on track.
Made a few minor tweaks to the grids...but no other updates are
needed at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Monday through Wednesday/
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Focus is on chances for rain late in the period. Models are close
enough that a blend was used.

Upper ridging and surface high pressure will provide dry conditions
into Tuesday. Some models try to bring in rain late Tuesday
afternoon with an upper disturbance, but believe they are overdoing
low level moisture (as is typical) and thus instability. Short range
ensembles are also drier, so will keep Tuesday dry.

For Tuesday night and Wednesday, moisture will start to improve with
better southerly flow. Additional upper disturbances will move out
from the upper trough in the western USA and provide forcing. There
is too much uncertainty on when exactly these will impact the area,
so kept PoPs broadbrushed.

Went chance PoPs most areas during that period, with highest PoPs on
Wednesday when better instability and moisture arrive.

For temperatures, went warmer than guidance for highs given how
temperatures have overperformed today and expected warm advection
later in the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Main focus regarding the long term will continue to be on
thunderstorms and temperatures.

Nothing has changed much over the last few days as the models and
ensembles continue to be similar in lifting a southwestern upper
trough northeast before it gets deflected by a strong eastern ridge
northward to the western Great Lakes on Sunday.
Meanwhile...warm...moist and unstable flow off the Gulf of Mexico
will interact with numerous impulses ejecting northeast around the
base of the upper trough toward the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.
This will be a fertile breeding ground for thunderstorm chances
throughout the Holiday weekend per good chance regional blend pops.

The southerly flow should allow temperatures to top out in the lower
80s each day...despite the convection...per the regional blend. Dew
points should also climb well into the 60s...making it feel rather
humid.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 23/0300Z TAF Update/...

Issued at 1238 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

VFR conditions will prevail for duration of TAF period as high
pressure remains in place. Winds will start out northerly and
gradually veer to the southeast and then southwest through the
course of the TAF period. Sustained speeds will range between 5 to
10 kts.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 230440
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1238 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

High pressure will provide dry and warm conditions through the day
Tuesday, then an upper level trough and a surface frontal system
will bring chances for rain through the holiday weekend.
Temperatures will remain above average.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Rest of Tonight/
Issued at 927 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Clear skies will continue overnight as ridge of high pressure moves
east across our region. Overall current forecast with lows from the
mid to upper 40s northeast to the lower 50s southwest is on track.
Made a few minor tweaks to the grids...but no other updates are
needed at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Monday through Wednesday/
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Focus is on chances for rain late in the period. Models are close
enough that a blend was used.

Upper ridging and surface high pressure will provide dry conditions
into Tuesday. Some models try to bring in rain late Tuesday
afternoon with an upper disturbance, but believe they are overdoing
low level moisture (as is typical) and thus instability. Short range
ensembles are also drier, so will keep Tuesday dry.

For Tuesday night and Wednesday, moisture will start to improve with
better southerly flow. Additional upper disturbances will move out
from the upper trough in the western USA and provide forcing. There
is too much uncertainty on when exactly these will impact the area,
so kept PoPs broadbrushed.

Went chance PoPs most areas during that period, with highest PoPs on
Wednesday when better instability and moisture arrive.

For temperatures, went warmer than guidance for highs given how
temperatures have overperformed today and expected warm advection
later in the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...

Issued at 210 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Active weather pattern takes shape during this period. ECMWF shows
a significant pattern change from the persistent trends of May.
Strong ridging begins to set up over the east coast during this
time. This results in a warm and moist southerly flow of air to
begin to push into the Ohio valley. ECMWF fails to show any well
organized waves pushing across Indiana during this time
period...however a couple of weak to marginal short waves look to
pass. This in combination with dew points climbing into the 60s
and daily highs expected in the 80s will result in daily chances
for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 23/0300Z TAF Update/...

Issued at 1238 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

VFR conditions will prevail for duration of TAF period as high
pressure remains in place. Winds will start out northerly and
gradually veer to the southeast and then southwest through the
course of the TAF period. Sustained speeds will range between 5 to
10 kts.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 230301
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1101 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

High pressure will provide dry and warm conditions through the day
Tuesday, then an upper level trough and a surface frontal system
will bring chances for rain through the holiday weekend.
Temperatures will remain above average.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Rest of Tonight/
Issued at 927 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Clear skies will continue overnight as ridge of high pressure moves
east across our region. Overall current forecast with lows from the
mid to upper 40s northeast to the lower 50s southwest is on track.
Made a few minor tweaks to the grids...but no other updates are
needed at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Monday through Wednesday/
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Focus is on chances for rain late in the period. Models are close
enough that a blend was used.

Upper ridging and surface high pressure will provide dry conditions
into Tuesday. Some models try to bring in rain late Tuesday
afternoon with an upper disturbance, but believe they are overdoing
low level moisture (as is typical) and thus instability. Short range
ensembles are also drier, so will keep Tuesday dry.

For Tuesday night and Wednesday, moisture will start to improve with
better southerly flow. Additional upper disturbances will move out
from the upper trough in the western USA and provide forcing. There
is too much uncertainty on when exactly these will impact the area,
so kept PoPs broadbrushed.

Went chance PoPs most areas during that period, with highest PoPs on
Wednesday when better instability and moisture arrive.

For temperatures, went warmer than guidance for highs given how
temperatures have overperformed today and expected warm advection
later in the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...

Issued at 210 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Active weather pattern takes shape during this period. ECMWF shows
a significant pattern change from the persistent trends of May.
Strong ridging begins to set up over the east coast during this
time. This results in a warm and moist southerly flow of air to
begin to push into the Ohio valley. ECMWF fails to show any well
organized waves pushing across Indiana during this time
period...however a couple of weak to marginal short waves look to
pass. This in combination with dew points climbing into the 60s
and daily highs expected in the 80s will result in daily chances
for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 23/0300Z TAF Update/...

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

UPDATE...
Winds have shifted from the northwest to northeast, otherwise no
changes.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR conditions will prevail for duration of TAF period as high
pressure remains in place. Winds will start out northerly and
gradually veer to the southeast and then southwest through the
course of the TAF period. Sustained speeds will be up to 15 kts
with gusts up to 24 kts for a few more hours, then decrease to 5
to 10 kts for the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 222347
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
747 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

High pressure will provide dry and warm conditions through the day
Tuesday, then an upper level trough and a surface frontal system
will bring chances for rain through the holiday weekend.
Temperatures will remain above average.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Satellite shows only a few cumulus around this afternoon, and these
will dissipate after sunset leaving behind clear skies for the
night. With light winds and a clear sky, trended toward the cooler
MOS for low temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Monday through Wednesday/
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Focus is on chances for rain late in the period. Models are close
enough that a blend was used.

Upper ridging and surface high pressure will provide dry conditions
into Tuesday. Some models try to bring in rain late Tuesday
afternoon with an upper disturbance, but believe they are overdoing
low level moisture (as is typical) and thus instability. Short range
ensembles are also drier, so will keep Tuesday dry.

For Tuesday night and Wednesday, moisture will start to improve with
better southerly flow. Additional upper disturbances will move out
from the upper trough in the western USA and provide forcing. There
is too much uncertainty on when exactly these will impact the area,
so kept PoPs broadbrushed.

Went chance PoPs most areas during that period, with highest PoPs on
Wednesday when better instability and moisture arrive.

For temperatures, went warmer than guidance for highs given how
temperatures have overperformed today and expected warm advection
later in the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...

Issued at 210 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Active weather pattern takes shape during this period. ECMWF shows
a significant pattern change from the persistent trends of May.
Strong ridging begins to set up over the east coast during this
time. This results in a warm and moist southerly flow of air to
begin to push into the Ohio valley. ECMWF fails to show any well
organized waves pushing across Indiana during this time
period...however a couple of weak to marginal short waves look to
pass. This in combination with dew points climbing into the 60s
and daily highs expected in the 80s will result in daily chances
for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION/Discussion for the 23/0000Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 737 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

VFR conditions will prevail for duration of TAF period as high
pressure remains in place. Winds will start out northerly and
gradually veer to the southeast and then southwest through the
course of the TAF period. Sustained speeds will be up to 15 kts
with gusts up to 24 kts for a few more hours, then decrease to 5
to 10 kts for the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 221810
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
210 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

High pressure is expected across the area into the early parts of
the week. A frontal system will affect the area towards the
middle and end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 1000 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Forecast is in good shape. Made some minor tweaks to sky cover far
east with area of mid cloud moving south across that area this
morning. Also bumped up temperatures a bit west based on latest
trends.

Previous discussion follows...

Dry weather expected today under upper ridge and surface high
pressure. Some mid level clouds may move through the eastern
zones later today as a short wave trough drops through the eastern
Great Lakes.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for today
are probably a little on the cool side. Will bump up the guidance
highs by a category.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday night/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Dry weather expected to continue through Tuesday with surface and
upper ridging in control. By Tuesday night, model data suggest
upper ridge will begin to flatten out. Some lift is progged to
move into the area Tuesday night, but at this point, not seeing
much of a low level focus for convection. Flow at 850mb looks
rather weak as well. For now, will keep some small chance PoPs in
the forecast for Tuesday night.

Based on progged low level thicknesses, will bump up the GFS MOS
highs for Monday a category. Guidance lows look reasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...

Issued at 210 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Active weather pattern takes shape during this period. ECMWF shows
a significant pattern change from the persistent trends of May.
Strong ridging begins to set up over the east coast during this
time. This results in a warm and moist southerly flow of air to
begin to push into the Ohio valley. ECMWF fails to show any well
organized waves pushing across Indiana during this time
period...however a couple of weak to marginal short waves look to
pass. This in combination with dew points climbing into the 60s
and daily highs expected in the 80s will result in daily chances
for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /discussion for the 221800z tafs/...

Issued at 1253 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

VFR conditions are expected this period.

Strong ridging and high pressure will remain across Indiana during
this period. Forecast soundings and time height sections show a
dry column with subsidence through the period.


&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/50
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 221658
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1258 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

High pressure is expected across the area into the early parts of
the week. A frontal system will affect the area towards the
middle and end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 1000 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Forecast is in good shape. Made some minor tweaks to sky cover far
east with area of mid cloud moving south across that area this
morning. Also bumped up temperatures a bit west based on latest
trends.

Previous discussion follows...

Dry weather expected today under upper ridge and surface high
pressure. Some mid level clouds may move through the eastern
zones later today as a short wave trough drops through the eastern
Great Lakes.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for today
are probably a little on the cool side. Will bump up the guidance
highs by a category.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday night/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Dry weather expected to continue through Tuesday with surface and
upper ridging in control. By Tuesday night, model data suggest
upper ridge will begin to flatten out. Some lift is progged to
move into the area Tuesday night, but at this point, not seeing
much of a low level focus for convection. Flow at 850mb looks
rather weak as well. For now, will keep some small chance PoPs in
the forecast for Tuesday night.

Based on progged low level thicknesses, will bump up the GFS MOS
highs for Monday a category. Guidance lows look reasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

The main focus to the long term continues to be on the looming
stormy and warmer period.

Models continue to be in excellent agreement regarding the main
features of the the synoptic pattern...lending plenty of confidence
that mid week through next weekend will be an unsettled period.
Models agree that an upper southwest trough will eject several
disturbances northeast across an increasingly warm...moist and
unstable environment over the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes.
The upper trough will get deflected northward across the upper
Missouri Valley next weekend as it encounters a strong eastern ridge
of high pressure. This will keep the Plains frontal system to our
west through the Holiday weekend with the moist southerly flow
continuing ahead of it. Instability progs were showing plenty of
mixed layer CAPE through the period for thunder. Could also see a
few strong to severe storms at times. At any rate...good chance to
likely pops look good through the weekend per regional blend.

Slightly above normal regional blend highs look good as the warmer
flow off the Gulf battles it out with convective cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /discussion for the 221800z tafs/...

Issued at 1253 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

VFR conditions are expected this period.

Strong ridging and high pressure will remain across Indiana during
this period. Forecast soundings and time height sections show a
dry column with subsidence through the period.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/50
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 221439
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1039 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.UPDATE...
AVIATION section updated

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

High pressure is expected across the area into the early parts of
the week. A frontal system will affect the area towards the
middle and end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 1000 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Forecast is in good shape. Made some minor tweaks to sky cover far
east with area of mid cloud moving south across that area this
morning. Also bumped up temperatures a bit west based on latest
trends.

Previous discussion follows...

Dry weather expected today under upper ridge and surface high
pressure. Some mid level clouds may move through the eastern
zones later today as a short wave trough drops through the eastern
Great Lakes.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for today
are probably a little on the cool side. Will bump up the guidance
highs by a category.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday night/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Dry weather expected to continue through Tuesday with surface and
upper ridging in control. By Tuesday night, model data suggest
upper ridge will begin to flatten out. Some lift is progged to
move into the area Tuesday night, but at this point, not seeing
much of a low level focus for convection. Flow at 850mb looks
rather weak as well. For now, will keep some small chance PoPs in
the forecast for Tuesday night.

Based on progged low level thicknesses, will bump up the GFS MOS
highs for Monday a category. Guidance lows look reasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

The main focus to the long term continues to be on the looming
stormy and warmer period.

Models continue to be in excellent agreement regarding the main
features of the the synoptic pattern...lending plenty of confidence
that mid week through next weekend will be an unsettled period.
Models agree that an upper southwest trough will eject several
disturbances northeast across an increasingly warm...moist and
unstable environment over the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes.
The upper trough will get deflected northward across the upper
Missouri Valley next weekend as it encounters a strong eastern ridge
of high pressure. This will keep the Plains frontal system to our
west through the Holiday weekend with the moist southerly flow
continuing ahead of it. Instability progs were showing plenty of
mixed layer CAPE through the period for thunder. Could also see a
few strong to severe storms at times. At any rate...good chance to
likely pops look good through the weekend per regional blend.

Slightly above normal regional blend highs look good as the warmer
flow off the Gulf battles it out with convective cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /discussion for the 221500z ind taf update/...

VFR conditions will continue with strong high pressure remaining
in place across Central Indiana. Ongoing tafs are in good
shape...no significant changes made.

/Discussion for the 221200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
Issued at 642 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

High confidence in VFR conditions through at least 06z Monday. Would
not rule out brief MVFR or worse fog at the smaller airports
overnight as the high settles over the area resulting in very light
to calm winds. Could see some AC this morning across the eastern
terminals per satellite. Otherwise...dry column and high pressure
will result in clear skies through the TAF period.

Winds will be northwest and increase to around 10 knots this
afternoon before diminishing this evening.


&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/50
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 221400
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1000 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

High pressure is expected across the area into the early parts of
the week. A frontal system will affect the area towards the
middle and end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 1000 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Forecast is in good shape. Made some minor tweaks to sky cover far
east with area of mid cloud moving south across that area this
morning. Also bumped up temperatures a bit west based on latest
trends.

Previous discussion follows...

Dry weather expected today under upper ridge and surface high
pressure. Some mid level clouds may move through the eastern
zones later today as a short wave trough drops through the eastern
Great Lakes.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for today
are probably a little on the cool side. Will bump up the guidance
highs by a category.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday night/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Dry weather expected to continue through Tuesday with surface and
upper ridging in control. By Tuesday night, model data suggest
upper ridge will begin to flatten out. Some lift is progged to
move into the area Tuesday night, but at this point, not seeing
much of a low level focus for convection. Flow at 850mb looks
rather weak as well. For now, will keep some small chance PoPs in
the forecast for Tuesday night.

Based on progged low level thicknesses, will bump up the GFS MOS
highs for Monday a category. Guidance lows look reasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

The main focus to the long term continues to be on the looming
stormy and warmer period.

Models continue to be in excellent agreement regarding the main
features of the the synoptic pattern...lending plenty of confidence
that mid week through next weekend will be an unsettled period.
Models agree that an upper southwest trough will eject several
disturbances northeast across an increasingly warm...moist and
unstable environment over the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes.
The upper trough will get deflected northward across the upper
Missouri Valley next weekend as it encounters a strong eastern ridge
of high pressure. This will keep the Plains frontal system to our
west through the Holiday weekend with the moist southerly flow
continuing ahead of it. Instability progs were showing plenty of
mixed layer CAPE through the period for thunder. Could also see a
few strong to severe storms at times. At any rate...good chance to
likely pops look good through the weekend per regional blend.

Slightly above normal regional blend highs look good as the warmer
flow off the Gulf battles it out with convective cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 221200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
Issued at 642 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

High confidence in VFR conditions through at least 06z Monday. Would
not rule out brief MVFR or worse fog at the smaller airports
overnight as the high settles over the area resulting in very light
to calm winds. Could see some AC this morning across the eastern
terminals per satellite. Otherwise...dry column and high pressure
will result in clear skies through the TAF period.

Winds will be northwest and increase to around 10 knots this
afternoon before diminishing this evening.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/50
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 220653
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
253 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated
below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

High pressure is expected across the area into the early parts of
the week. A frontal system will affect the area towards the
middle and end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Dry weather expected today under upper ridge and surface high
pressure. Some mid level clouds may move through the eastern
zones later today as a short wave trough drops through the eastern
Great Lakes.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for today
are probably a little on the cool side. Will bump up the guidance
highs by a category.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday night/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Dry weather expected to continue through Tuesday with surface and
upper ridging in control. By Tuesday night, model data suggest
upper ridge will begin to flatten out. Some lift is progged to
move into the area Tuesday night, but at this point, not seeing
much of a low level focus for convection. Flow at 850mb looks
rather weak as well. For now, will keep some small chance PoPs in
the forecast for Tuesday night.

Based on progged low level thicknesses, will bump up the GFS MOS
highs for Monday a category. Guidance lows look reasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

The main focus to the long term continues to be on the looming
stormy and warmer period.

Models continue to be in excellent agreement regarding the main
features of the the synoptic pattern...lending plenty of confidence
that mid week through next weekend will be an unsettled period.
Models agree that an upper southwest trough will eject several
disturbances northeast across an increasingly warm...moist and
unstable environment over the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes.
The upper trough will get deflected northward across the upper
Missouri Valley next weekend as it encounters a strong eastern ridge
of high pressure. This will keep the Plains frontal system to our
west through the Holiday weekend with the moist southerly flow
continuing ahead of it. Instability progs were showing plenty of
mixed layer CAPE through the period for thunder. Could also see a
few strong to severe storms at times. At any rate...good chance to
likely pops look good through the weekend per regional blend.

Slightly above normal regional blend highs look good as the warmer
flow off the Gulf battles it out with convective cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 220600Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 1235 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

VFR conditions can be expected through the TAF period with high
pressure in place. Winds will generally be northerly at 6 to 11 kts.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 220620
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
220 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

.UPDATE...
The Long Term Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

The same high pressure system will control Indiana weather until
Wednesday as it moves from between the Rockies and the Mississippi
to the east coast. For Thursday to Saturday the main player in our
weather should be a front from the central plains to the Hoosier
State.

&&

.NEAR TERM (rest of Tonight)...
Issued at 934 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

Satellite indicates thin high clouds may brush central and
southern sections tonight.  Tweaked low temperatuers down slightly
northwest...Otherwise...current forecast is on track and no
updates are needed at this time.

Should see mostly clear conditions overnight as drier air
spreads in from the northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Sunday through Tuesday)...

Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

There is good agreement the period will be dry. There is also good
agreement from the cumulus rule Sunday will be partly to mostly
sunny. After that we should be mostly clear under warm advection
aloft.

Temperatures are left as the main forecast issue.

For Sunday the NAM/MET is more aggressive about warming than other
guidance. The GFS/European Model and associated MOS look more
reasonable considering the source area. Given the NAM is likely
having warm influence on the blend, the MAV is probably best to
use.

After Monday the blend looks good allowing for air mass modification
and gradual development of warm advection.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

The main focus to the long term continues to be on the looming
stormy and warmer period.

Models continue to be in excellent agreement regarding the main
features of the the synoptic pattern...lending plenty of confidence
that mid week through next weekend will be an unsettled period.
Models agree that an upper southwest trough will eject several
disturbances northeast across an increasingly warm...moist and
unstable environment over the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes.
The upper trough will get deflected northward across the upper
Missouri Valley next weekend as it encounters a strong eastern ridge
of high pressure. This will keep the Plains frontal system to our
west through the Holiday weekend with the moist southerly flow
continuing ahead of it. Instability progs were showing plenty of
mixed layer CAPE through the period for thunder. Could also see a
few strong to severe storms at times. At any rate...good chance to
likely pops look good through the weekend per regional blend.

Slightly above normal regional blend highs look good as the warmer
flow off the Gulf battles it out with convective cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 220600Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 1235 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

VFR conditions can be expected through the TAF period with high
pressure in place. Winds will generally be northerly at 6 to 11 kts.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 220435
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1235 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

The same high pressure system will control Indiana weather until
Wednesday as it moves from between the Rockies and the Mississippi
to the east coast. For Thursday to Saturday the main player in our
weather should be a front from the central plains to the Hoosier
State.

&&

.NEAR TERM (rest of Tonight)...
Issued at 934 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

Satellite indicates thin high clouds may brush central and
southern sections tonight.  Tweaked low temperatuers down slightly
northwest...Otherwise...current forecast is on track and no
updates are needed at this time.

Should see mostly clear conditions overnight as drier air
spreads in from the northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Sunday through Tuesday)...

Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

There is good agreement the period will be dry. There is also good
agreement from the cumulus rule Sunday will be partly to mostly
sunny. After that we should be mostly clear under warm advection
aloft.

Temperatures are left as the main forecast issue.

For Sunday the NAM/MET is more aggressive about warming than other
guidance. The GFS/European Model and associated MOS look more
reasonable considering the source area. Given the NAM is likely
having warm influence on the blend, the MAV is probably best to
use.

After Monday the blend looks good allowing for air mass modification
and gradual development of warm advection.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night Through Saturday/...
Issued at 223 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was accepted
for most items.

An upper trough will remain across the western USA during the long
term, although it will move closer to the area by Saturday. Various
waves will eject from the upper low and interact with a warm and
unstable atmosphere to generate chances for showers and
thunderstorms throughout the long term (and potentially continuing
beyond into the remainder of the holiday weekend).

Per the Storm Prediction Center, there could be some strong to
severe storms mid-week next week.

Temperatures will remain above average.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 220600Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 1235 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

VFR conditions can be expected through the TAF period with high
pressure in place. Winds will generally be northerly at 6 to 11 kts.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 220212
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1012 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

The same high pressure system will control Indiana weather until
Wednesday as it moves from between the Rockies and the Mississippi
to the east coast. For Thursday to Saturday the main player in our
weather should be a front from the central plains to the Hoosier
State.

&&

.NEAR TERM (rest of Tonight)...
Issued at 934 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

Satellite indicates thin high clouds may brush central and
southern sections tonight.  Tweaked low temperatuers down slightly
northwest...Otherwise...current forecast is on track and no
updates are needed at this time.

Should see mostly clear conditions overnight as drier air
spreads in from the northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Sunday through Tuesday)...

Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

There is good agreement the period will be dry. There is also good
agreement from the cumulus rule Sunday will be partly to mostly
sunny. After that we should be mostly clear under warm advection
aloft.

Temperatures are left as the main forecast issue.

For Sunday the NAM/MET is more aggressive about warming than other
guidance. The GFS/European Model and associated MOS look more
reasonable considering the source area. Given the NAM is likely
having warm influence on the blend, the MAV is probably best to
use.

After Monday the blend looks good allowing for air mass modification
and gradual development of warm advection.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night Through Saturday/...
Issued at 223 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was accepted
for most items.

An upper trough will remain across the western USA during the long
term, although it will move closer to the area by Saturday. Various
waves will eject from the upper low and interact with a warm and
unstable atmosphere to generate chances for showers and
thunderstorms throughout the long term (and potentially continuing
beyond into the remainder of the holiday weekend).

Per the Storm Prediction Center, there could be some strong to
severe storms mid-week next week.

Temperatures will remain above average.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 220300Z TAF Update/...

Issued at 1010 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

UPDATE...
Changed wind direction from northeasterly to northwesterly,
otherwise no changes.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Additional clearing tonight and VFR conditions through the TAF
period can be expected with high pressure in place. Winds will
generally be northerly at 6 to 11 kts.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 220132
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
934 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Near term for the rest of tonight has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

The same high pressure system will control Indiana weather until
Wednesday as it moves from between the Rockies and the Mississippi
to the east coast. For Thursday to Saturday the main player in our
weather should be a front from the central plains to the Hoosier
State.

&&

.NEAR TERM (rest of Tonight)...
Issued at 934 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

Satellite indicates thin high clouds may brush central and
southern sections tonight.  Tweaked low temperatuers down slightly
northwest...Otherwise...current forecast is on track and no
updates are needed at this time.

Should see mostly clear conditions overnight as drier air
spreads in from the northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Sunday through Tuesday)...

Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

There is good agreement the period will be dry. There is also good
agreement from the cumulus rule Sunday will be partly to mostly
sunny. After that we should be mostly clear under warm advection
aloft.

Temperatures are left as the main forecast issue.

For Sunday the NAM/MET is more aggressive about warming than other
guidance. The GFS/European Model and associated MOS look more
reasonable considering the source area. Given the NAM is likely
having warm influence on the blend, the MAV is probably best to
use.

After Monday the blend looks good allowing for air mass modification
and gradual development of warm advection.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night Through Saturday/...
Issued at 223 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was accepted
for most items.

An upper trough will remain across the western USA during the long
term, although it will move closer to the area by Saturday. Various
waves will eject from the upper low and interact with a warm and
unstable atmosphere to generate chances for showers and
thunderstorms throughout the long term (and potentially continuing
beyond into the remainder of the holiday weekend).

Per the Storm Prediction Center, there could be some strong to
severe storms mid-week next week.

Temperatures will remain above average.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 22/0000Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 734 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

Additional clearing tonight and VFR conditions through the TAF
period can be expected with high pressure in place. Winds will
generally be northerly at 6 to 11 kts.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 212339
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
739 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

The same high pressure system will control Indiana weather until
Wednesday as it moves from between the Rockies and the Mississippi
to the east coast. For Thursday to Saturday the main player in our
weather should be a front from the central plains to the Hoosier
State.

&&

.NEAR TERM (Tonight)...

Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

There is good model agreement that once we loose diurnal heating
skies will clear for the rest of the night.

The GFS and NAM both have moderate residual humidity in cyclonic
flow aloft tonight. It doesn`t look sufficient for clouds, but it
will probably reduce radiation. Given that the comparatively warm
MAV looks best for lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Sunday through Tuesday)...

Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

There is good agreement the period will be dry. There is also good
agreement from the cumulus rule Sunday will be partly to mostly
sunny. After that we should be mostly clear under warm advection
aloft.

Temperatures are left as the main forecast issue.

For Sunday the NAM/MET is more aggressive about warming than other
guidance. The GFS/European Model and associated MOS look more
reasonable considering the source area. Given the NAM is likely
having warm influence on the blend, the MAV is probably best to
use.

After Monday the blend looks good allowing for air mass modification
and gradual development of warm advection.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night Through Saturday/...
Issued at 223 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was accepted
for most items.

An upper trough will remain across the western USA during the long
term, although it will move closer to the area by Saturday. Various
waves will eject from the upper low and interact with a warm and
unstable atmosphere to generate chances for showers and
thunderstorms throughout the long term (and potentially continuing
beyond into the remainder of the holiday weekend).

Per the Storm Prediction Center, there could be some strong to
severe storms mid-week next week.

Temperatures will remain above average.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 22/0000Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 734 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

Additional clearing tonight and VFR conditions through the TAF
period can be expected with high pressure in place. Winds will
generally be northerly at 6 to 11 kts.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 211803
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
203 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

The same high pressure system will control Indiana weather until
Wednesday as it moves from between the Rockies and the Mississippi
to the east coast. For Thursday to Saturday the main player in our
weather should be a front from the central plains to the Hoosier
State.

&&

.NEAR TERM (Tonight)...

Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

There is good model agreement that once we loose diurnal heating
skies will clear for the rest of the night.

The GFS and NAM both have moderate residual humidity in cyclonic
flow aloft tonight. It doesn`t look sufficient for clouds, but it
will probably reduce radiation. Given that the comparatively warm
MAV looks best for lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Sunday through Tuesday)...

Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

There is good agreement the period will be dry. There is also good
agreement from the cumulus rule Sunday will be partly to mostly
sunny. After that we should be mostly clear under warm advection
aloft.

Temperatures are left as the main forecast issue.

For Sunday the NAM/MET is more aggressive about warming than other
guidance. The GFS/European Model and associated MOS look more
reasonable considering the source area. Given the NAM is likely
having warm influence on the blend, the MAV is probably best to
use.

After Monday the blend looks good allowing for air mass modification
and gradual development of warm advection.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...
Issued at 200 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

The main focus for the long term will be on temperatures and also
thunderstorm timing and chances.

Model to model and run to run consistency in the long term has been
very good which leads to better confidence than usual with the
overall day 4 through 7 synoptic pattern. The key players will be a
southwestern upper low and return flow around a southeastern surface
high. The upper low will eject several upper disturbances northeast
across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes...while the southerly flow
around the high will bringing increasing moisture and instability to
the area. This all points to prolonged thunderstorm chances
throughout the long term. The one exception may be Tuesday as models
with the return flow and warm advection just starting up...the
showers may only reach west central Indiana or perhaps not even
reach the Illinois border.

Temperatures will depend a lot on how widespread the thunderstorms
and cloud cover are and where any mesoscale boundary set up.
Confidence is not good with that sort of timing...so will accept the
regional blend temperatures with highs mostly in the upper 70s to
around 80 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 211800Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1221 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

Perhaps some MVFR early at KBMG, otherwise VFR conditions expected.

MVFR deck continues to lift and move south, near KBMG while
scattered to broken cumulus field continues to develop elsewhere.
The lower clouds near KBMG should lift/move south soon after valid
time, while the cumulus field continues through the afternoon.

The lower clouds will dissipate by early evening with loss of
heating and with drier air moving in. Some additional cumulus may
develop Sunday.


&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...50





000
FXUS63 KIND 211621
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1221 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

An upper low is expected to move off to the east of the area later
this morning. In the wake of this system, high pressure will
build into the area for early next week. A frontal system may
affect the area towards the middle and end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM (Today)...

Issued at 947 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

The previous forecast is working well overall. Adjustments were made
based on the latest observations and Rapid Refresh. The main change
was to go entirely dry in the northwest.

Previous discussion follows:

Upper low currently over the area is expected to move off to the
east by the midday hours today based on model data. Will keep chance
PoPs going across the area until the midday hours as a result. Model
data suggest a secondary vorticity center may drop through eastern
Indiana later this afternoon, so will keep some small chance PoPs
over the eastern zones during the afternoon hours as well.

Otherwise, should see cloud cover decrease with time towards midday
and on into the afternoon hours as drier air works into the area.

Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for today look
reasonable, with only minor adjustments planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday night/...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

Dry weather expected during this period with upper ridging building
into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by early next week. Little
in the way of significant cloud cover with rather low humidity
values throughout the atmospheric column.

Will bump up the GFS MOS guidance highs a category on Sunday and
Monday based on progged low level thicknesses. Guidance low
temperatures look reasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...
Issued at 200 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

The main focus for the long term will be on temperatures and also
thunderstorm timing and chances.

Model to model and run to run consistency in the long term has been
very good which leads to better confidence than usual with the
overall day 4 through 7 synoptic pattern. The key players will be a
southwestern upper low and return flow around a southeastern surface
high. The upper low will eject several upper disturbances northeast
across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes...while the southerly flow
around the high will bringing increasing moisture and instability to
the area. This all points to prolonged thunderstorm chances
throughout the long term. The one exception may be Tuesday as models
with the return flow and warm advection just starting up...the
showers may only reach west central Indiana or perhaps not even
reach the Illinois border.

Temperatures will depend a lot on how widespread the thunderstorms
and cloud cover are and where any mesoscale boundary set up.
Confidence is not good with that sort of timing...so will accept the
regional blend temperatures with highs mostly in the upper 70s to
around 80 degrees.

&&


.AVIATION (Discussion for the 211800Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1221 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

Perhaps some MVFR early at KBMG, otherwise VFR conditions expected.

MVFR deck continues to lift and move south, near KBMG while
scattered to broken cumulus field continues to develop elsewhere.
The lower clouds near KBMG should lift/move south soon after valid
time, while the cumulus field continues through the afternoon.

The lower clouds will dissipate by early evening with loss of
heating and with drier air moving in. Some additional cumulus may
develop Sunday.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/JK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...50





000
FXUS63 KIND 211020
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
620 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

An upper low is expected to move off to the east of the area later
this morning. In the wake of this system, high pressure will
build into the area for early next week. A frontal system may
affect the area towards the middle and end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

Upper low currently over the area is expected to move off to the
east by the midday hours today based on model data. Will keep
chance PoPs going across the area until the midday hours as a
result. Model data suggest a secondary vorticity center may drop
through eastern Indiana later this afternoon, so will keep some
small chance PoPs over the eastern zones during the afternoon
hours as well.

Otherwise, should see cloud cover decrease with time towards midday
and on into the afternoon hours as drier air works into the area.

Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for today look
reasonable, with only minor adjustments planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday night/...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

Dry weather expected during this period with upper ridging building
into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by early next week. Little
in the way of significant cloud cover with rather low humidity
values throughout the atmospheric column.

Will bump up the GFS MOS guidance highs a category on Sunday and
Monday based on progged low level thicknesses. Guidance low
temperatures look reasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...
Issued at 200 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

The main focus for the long term will be on temperatures and also
thunderstorm timing and chances.

Model to model and run to run consistency in the long term has been
very good which leads to better confidence than usual with the
overall day 4 through 7 synoptic pattern. The key players will be a
southwestern upper low and return flow around a southeastern surface
high. The upper low will eject several upper disturbances northeast
across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes...while the southerly flow
around the high will bringing increasing moisture and instability to
the area. This all points to prolonged thunderstorm chances
throughout the long term. The one exception may be Tuesday as models
with the return flow and warm advection just starting up...the
showers may only reach west central Indiana or perhaps not even
reach the Illinois border.

Temperatures will depend a lot on how widespread the thunderstorms
and cloud cover are and where any mesoscale boundary set up.
Confidence is not good with that sort of timing...so will accept the
regional blend temperatures with highs mostly in the upper 70s to
around 80 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the KIND 211200Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 620 AM EDT Sat MAY 21 2016

IFR or worse conditions possible for the first hour or 2 at all
but LAF with a gradually improvement to VFR 15z-17z.
Meanwhile...LAF will likely start out either VFR or MVFR.
Radar trends suggest VCSH or nothing...except perhaps a short window
at issuance time of prevailing showers at LAF. Will pull all mention
of showers by 16z. After that...MOS suggests clearing from west to
out east 20z-22z.

North and northeast winds will become north and northwest around 10
knots this afternoon. Then...winds will become light northwest or
calm after 00z. Would not rule out fog overnight at the
smaller airports...but confidence is not good enough...especially
out that far.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 210823
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
420 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

An upper low is expected to move off to the east of the area later
this morning. In the wake of this system, high pressure will
build into the area for early next week. A frontal system may
affect the area towards the middle and end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

Upper low currently over the area is expected to move off to the
east by the midday hours today based on model data. Will keep
chance PoPs going across the area until the midday hours as a
result. Model data suggest a secondary vorticity center may drop
through eastern Indiana later this afternoon, so will keep some
small chance PoPs over the eastern zones during the afternoon
hours as well.

Otherwise, should see cloud cover decrease with time towards midday
and on into the afternoon hours as drier air works into the area.

Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for today look
reasonable, with only minor adjustments planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday night/...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

Dry weather expected during this period with upper ridging building
into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by early next week. Little
in the way of significant cloud cover with rather low humidity
values throughout the atmospheric column.

Will bump up the GFS MOS guidance highs a category on Sunday and
Monday based on progged low level thicknesses. Guidance low
temperatures look reasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...
Issued at 200 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

The main focus for the long term will be on temperatures and also
thunderstorm timing and chances.

Model to model and run to run consistency in the long term has been
very good which leads to better confidence than usual with the
overall day 4 through 7 synoptic pattern. The key players will be a
southwestern upper low and return flow around a southeastern surface
high. The upper low will eject several upper disturbances northeast
across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes...while the southerly flow
around the high will bringing increasing moisture and instability to
the area. This all points to prolonged thunderstorm chances
throughout the long term. The one exception may be Tuesday as models
with the return flow and warm advection just starting up...the
showers may only reach west central Indiana or perhaps not even
reach the Illinois border.

Temperatures will depend a lot on how widespread the thunderstorms
and cloud cover are and where any mesoscale boundary set up.
Confidence is not good with that sort of timing...so will accept the
regional blend temperatures with highs mostly in the upper 70s to
around 80 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the KIND 210900Z IND TAF Update)...
Issued at 420 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

The ceiling has deteriorated to LIFR and could remain there the next
few hours.

previous discussion follows...
Issued at 1152 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016

VFR at KLAF through the period. Otherwise...MVFR Ceilings with scattered
showers overnight improving to VFR by mid or late morning at other TAF sites.
Then clearing all areas by Saturday evening.

Area of low pressure over eastern Kentucky will continue to generate light
showers as it moves to the east.  Weather depiction shows IFR conditions over
southern sections and MVFR conditions up to KIND and KHUF and VFR farther north.
There should be enough dry air over northern sections to keep ceilings at or
above 4 thousand feet there.   Eventually this drier air will spread over the
rest of the region as low pressure pulls to the east.   Expect mostly VFR as
High pressure builds into the middle Mississippi valley.

Light north winds tonight will become north to northwest up to 10 knots Saturday
and light northwest Saturday evening.


&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JH/MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 210641
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
241 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated
below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

An upper low is expected to move off to the east of the area later
this morning. In the wake of this system, high pressure will
build into the area for early next week. A frontal system may
affect the area towards the middle and end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

Upper low currently over the area is expected to move off to the
east by the midday hours today based on model data. Will keep
chance PoPs going across the area until the midday hours as a
result. Model data suggest a secondary vorticity center may drop
through eastern Indiana later this afternoon, so will keep some
small chance PoPs over the eastern zones during the afternoon
hours as well.

Otherwise, should see cloud cover decrease with time towards midday
and on into the afternoon hours as drier air works into the area.

Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for today look
reasonable, with only minor adjustments planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday night/...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

Dry weather expected during this period with upper ridging building
into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by early next week. Little
in the way of significant cloud cover with rather low humidity
values throughout the atmospheric column.

Will bump up the GFS MOS guidance highs a category on Sunday and
Monday based on progged low level thicknesses. Guidance low
temperatures look reasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...
Issued at 200 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

The main focus for the long term will be on temperatures and also
thunderstorm timing and chances.

Model to model and run to run consistency in the long term has been
very good which leads to better confidence than usual with the
overall day 4 through 7 synoptic pattern. The key players will be a
southwestern upper low and return flow around a southeastern surface
high. The upper low will eject several upper disturbances northeast
across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes...while the southerly flow
around the high will bringing increasing moisture and instability to
the area. This all points to prolonged thunderstorm chances
throughout the long term. The one exception may be Tuesday as models
with the return flow and warm advection just starting up...the
showers may only reach west central Indiana or perhaps not even
reach the Illinois border.

Temperatures will depend a lot on how widespread the thunderstorms
and cloud cover are and where any mesoscale boundary set up.
Confidence is not good with that sort of timing...so will accept the
regional blend temperatures with highs mostly in the upper 70s to
around 80 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the KIND 210600Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1152 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016

VFR at KLAF through the period. Otherwise...MVFR Ceilings with scattered
showers overnight improving to VFR by mid or late morning at other TAF sites.
Then clearing all areas by Saturday evening.

Area of low pressure over eastern Kentucky will continue to generate light
showers as it moves to the east.  Weather depiction shows IFR conditions over
southern sections and MVFR conditions up to KIND and KHUF and VFR farther north.
There should be enough dry air over northern sections to keep ceilings at or
above 4 thousand feet there.   Eventually this drier air will spread over the
rest of the region as low pressure pulls to the east.   Expect mostly VFR as
High pressure builds into the middle Mississippi valley.

Light north winds tonight will become north to northwest up to 10 knots Saturday
and light northwest Saturday evening.


&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JH





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