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000
FXUS63 KIND 210231
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1031 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AS A RESULT. AFTER COOL CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 926 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

STILL A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL
ZONES...BUT THESE HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AND SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

OTHERWISE...RATHER EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. APPEARS THESE CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF
THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE SOUTHWEST ZONES...LATER TONIGHT.
WILL GO A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

REST OF FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION HAVE EXITED THE AREA...AND THUS
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
WANTS TO HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA...BUT AMPLE
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD WORK AGAINST THIS.

TEMPS APPEAR LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
TONIGHT...WHICH PUTS THE MODEL BLEND WELL IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM
MINS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NARROW BUT STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FORCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND WILL GO WITH A
DRY FORECAST THROUGHOUT AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ELEMENT.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH
A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE AREA.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS REASONABLY WELL.

MIN TEMPS COULD BRING FROST INTO PLAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...BUT TEMPS FOR FROST ARE BORDERLINE
AT BEST AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION. NEXT
POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

SURFACE ANALYSIS NOW SHOWS THE TROUGH AXIS HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF
THE TAF SITES...ALLOWING A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.
FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY RESULT IN TH FORMATION OF SOME LOW
VFR CIGS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH CLOSELY. IN THE
MEANTIME...HIGHER VFR CLOUDS OVER EASTER WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 210000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT IND AND LAF. A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE ON
TUESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST SLOWLY DURING
THE PERIOD ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
FEATURE AT THE MOMENT AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MVFR CIGS ARE SEEN
UPSTREAM WITHIN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. FOR NOW WILL TREND A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT IND AND LAF...AREAS CLOSEST TO
THE BEST CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUD SHIELD OF THE PASSING LOW TO
NORTHEAST.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JAS
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 210231
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1031 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AS A RESULT. AFTER COOL CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 926 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

STILL A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL
ZONES...BUT THESE HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AND SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

OTHERWISE...RATHER EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. APPEARS THESE CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF
THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE SOUTHWEST ZONES...LATER TONIGHT.
WILL GO A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

REST OF FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION HAVE EXITED THE AREA...AND THUS
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
WANTS TO HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA...BUT AMPLE
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD WORK AGAINST THIS.

TEMPS APPEAR LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
TONIGHT...WHICH PUTS THE MODEL BLEND WELL IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM
MINS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NARROW BUT STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FORCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND WILL GO WITH A
DRY FORECAST THROUGHOUT AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ELEMENT.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH
A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE AREA.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS REASONABLY WELL.

MIN TEMPS COULD BRING FROST INTO PLAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...BUT TEMPS FOR FROST ARE BORDERLINE
AT BEST AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION. NEXT
POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

SURFACE ANALYSIS NOW SHOWS THE TROUGH AXIS HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF
THE TAF SITES...ALLOWING A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.
FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY RESULT IN TH FORMATION OF SOME LOW
VFR CIGS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH CLOSELY. IN THE
MEANTIME...HIGHER VFR CLOUDS OVER EASTER WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 210000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT IND AND LAF. A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE ON
TUESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST SLOWLY DURING
THE PERIOD ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
FEATURE AT THE MOMENT AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MVFR CIGS ARE SEEN
UPSTREAM WITHIN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. FOR NOW WILL TREND A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT IND AND LAF...AREAS CLOSEST TO
THE BEST CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUD SHIELD OF THE PASSING LOW TO
NORTHEAST.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JAS
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 210128
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
926 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AS A RESULT. AFTER COOL CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 926 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

STILL A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL
ZONES...BUT THESE HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AND SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

OTHERWISE...RATHER EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. APPEARS THESE CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF
THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE SOUTHWEST ZONES...LATER TONIGHT.
WILL GO A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

REST OF FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION HAVE EXITED THE AREA...AND THUS
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
WANTS TO HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA...BUT AMPLE
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD WORK AGAINST THIS.

TEMPS APPEAR LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
TONIGHT...WHICH PUTS THE MODEL BLEND WELL IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM
MINS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NARROW BUT STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FORCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND WILL GO WITH A
DRY FORECAST THROUGHOUT AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ELEMENT.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH
A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE AREA.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS REASONABLY WELL.

MIN TEMPS COULD BRING FROST INTO PLAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...BUT TEMPS FOR FROST ARE BORDERLINE
AT BEST AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION. NEXT
POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT IND AND LAF. A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE ON
TUESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST SLOWLY DURING
THE PERIOD ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
FEATURE AT THE MOMENT AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MVFR CIGS ARE SEEN
UPSTREAM WITHIN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. FOR NOW WILL TREND A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT IND AND LAF...AREAS CLOSEST TO
THE BEST CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUD SHIELD OF THE PASSING LOW TO
NORTHEAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JAS
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 210128
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
926 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AS A RESULT. AFTER COOL CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 926 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

STILL A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL
ZONES...BUT THESE HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AND SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

OTHERWISE...RATHER EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. APPEARS THESE CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF
THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE SOUTHWEST ZONES...LATER TONIGHT.
WILL GO A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

REST OF FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION HAVE EXITED THE AREA...AND THUS
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
WANTS TO HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA...BUT AMPLE
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD WORK AGAINST THIS.

TEMPS APPEAR LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
TONIGHT...WHICH PUTS THE MODEL BLEND WELL IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM
MINS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NARROW BUT STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FORCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND WILL GO WITH A
DRY FORECAST THROUGHOUT AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ELEMENT.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH
A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE AREA.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS REASONABLY WELL.

MIN TEMPS COULD BRING FROST INTO PLAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...BUT TEMPS FOR FROST ARE BORDERLINE
AT BEST AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION. NEXT
POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT IND AND LAF. A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE ON
TUESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST SLOWLY DURING
THE PERIOD ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
FEATURE AT THE MOMENT AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MVFR CIGS ARE SEEN
UPSTREAM WITHIN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. FOR NOW WILL TREND A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT IND AND LAF...AREAS CLOSEST TO
THE BEST CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUD SHIELD OF THE PASSING LOW TO
NORTHEAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JAS
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 202240
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
640 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AS A RESULT. AFTER COOL CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION HAVE EXITED THE AREA...AND THUS
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
WANTS TO HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA...BUT AMPLE
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD WORK AGAINST THIS.

TEMPS APPEAR LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
TONIGHT...WHICH PUTS THE MODEL BLEND WELL IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM
MINS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NARROW BUT STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FORCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND WILL GO WITH A
DRY FORECAST THROUGHOUT AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ELEMENT.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH
A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE AREA.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS REASONABLY WELL.

MIN TEMPS COULD BRING FROST INTO PLAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...BUT TEMPS FOR FROST ARE BORDERLINE
AT BEST AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION. NEXT
POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT IND AND LAF. A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE ON
TUESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST SLOWLY DURING
THE PERIOD ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
FEATURE AT THE MOMENT AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MVFR CIGS ARE SEEN
UPSTREAM WITHIN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. FOR NOW WILL TREND A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT IND AND LAF...AREAS CLOSEST TO
THE BEST CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUD SHIELD OF THE PASSING LOW TO
NORTHEAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 202240
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
640 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AS A RESULT. AFTER COOL CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION HAVE EXITED THE AREA...AND THUS
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
WANTS TO HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA...BUT AMPLE
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD WORK AGAINST THIS.

TEMPS APPEAR LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
TONIGHT...WHICH PUTS THE MODEL BLEND WELL IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM
MINS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NARROW BUT STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FORCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND WILL GO WITH A
DRY FORECAST THROUGHOUT AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ELEMENT.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH
A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE AREA.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS REASONABLY WELL.

MIN TEMPS COULD BRING FROST INTO PLAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...BUT TEMPS FOR FROST ARE BORDERLINE
AT BEST AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION. NEXT
POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT IND AND LAF. A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE ON
TUESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST SLOWLY DURING
THE PERIOD ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
FEATURE AT THE MOMENT AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MVFR CIGS ARE SEEN
UPSTREAM WITHIN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. FOR NOW WILL TREND A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT IND AND LAF...AREAS CLOSEST TO
THE BEST CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUD SHIELD OF THE PASSING LOW TO
NORTHEAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 202038
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
438 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AS A RESULT. AFTER COOL CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION HAVE EXITED THE AREA...AND THUS
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
WANTS TO HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA...BUT AMPLE
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD WORK AGAINST THIS.

TEMPS APPEAR LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
TONIGHT...WHICH PUTS THE MODEL BLEND WELL IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM
MINS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NARROW BUT STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FORCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND WILL GO WITH A
DRY FORECAST THROUGHOUT AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ELEMENT.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH
A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE AREA.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS REASONABLY WELL.

MIN TEMPS COULD BRING FROST INTO PLAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...BUT TEMPS FOR FROST ARE BORDERLINE
AT BEST AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION. NEXT
POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 202100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS TH ENEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE
LOST ALLOWING DIURNAL CU TO DISSIPATE.

A WIND SHIFT IT EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT PASSES IN THE NEXT 60-90
MINUTES AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR 201800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...THEN MFVR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

AFTER A STRONGER THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA...SOME LIGHT SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS OR NEAR SOME OF THE
SITES...HOWEVER DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THESE WILL IMPACT FLIGHT
CATEGORY AND THUS WILL JUST INCLUDE VCSH WITH THEM. TONIGHT TIME
HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES STARTING AFTER AROUND 6Z AND POTENTIALLY
CONTINUING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY TUESDAY WHICH WAS
INDICATED IN MANY OF THE TERMINALS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 202038
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
438 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AS A RESULT. AFTER COOL CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION HAVE EXITED THE AREA...AND THUS
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
WANTS TO HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA...BUT AMPLE
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD WORK AGAINST THIS.

TEMPS APPEAR LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
TONIGHT...WHICH PUTS THE MODEL BLEND WELL IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM
MINS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NARROW BUT STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FORCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND WILL GO WITH A
DRY FORECAST THROUGHOUT AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ELEMENT.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH
A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE AREA.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS REASONABLY WELL.

MIN TEMPS COULD BRING FROST INTO PLAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...BUT TEMPS FOR FROST ARE BORDERLINE
AT BEST AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION. NEXT
POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 202100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS TH ENEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE
LOST ALLOWING DIURNAL CU TO DISSIPATE.

A WIND SHIFT IT EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT PASSES IN THE NEXT 60-90
MINUTES AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR 201800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...THEN MFVR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

AFTER A STRONGER THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA...SOME LIGHT SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS OR NEAR SOME OF THE
SITES...HOWEVER DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THESE WILL IMPACT FLIGHT
CATEGORY AND THUS WILL JUST INCLUDE VCSH WITH THEM. TONIGHT TIME
HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES STARTING AFTER AROUND 6Z AND POTENTIALLY
CONTINUING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY TUESDAY WHICH WAS
INDICATED IN MANY OF THE TERMINALS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 201952
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
352 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AS A RESULT. AFTER COOL CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION HAVE EXITED THE AREA...AND THUS
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
WANTS TO HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA...BUT AMPLE
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD WORK AGAINST THIS.

TEMPS APPEAR LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
TONIGHT...WHICH PUTS THE MODEL BLEND WELL IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM
MINS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NARROW BUT STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FORCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND WILL GO WITH A
DRY FORECAST THROUGHOUT AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ELEMENT.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH
A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE AREA.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS REASONABLY WELL.

MIN TEMPS COULD BRING FROST INTO PLAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...BUT TEMPS FOR FROST ARE BORDERLINE
AT BEST AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION. NEXT
POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 201800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...THEN MFVR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

AFTER A STRONGER THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA...SOME LIGHT SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS OR NEAR SOME OF THE
SITES...HOWEVER DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THESE WILL IMPACT FLIGHT
CATEGORY AND THUS WILL JUST INCLUDE VCSH WITH THEM. TONIGHT TIME
HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES STARTING AFTER AROUND 6Z AND POTENTIALLY
CONTINUING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY TUESDAY WHICH WAS
INDICATED IN MANY OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 201952
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
352 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AS A RESULT. AFTER COOL CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION HAVE EXITED THE AREA...AND THUS
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
WANTS TO HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA...BUT AMPLE
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD WORK AGAINST THIS.

TEMPS APPEAR LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
TONIGHT...WHICH PUTS THE MODEL BLEND WELL IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM
MINS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NARROW BUT STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FORCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND WILL GO WITH A
DRY FORECAST THROUGHOUT AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ELEMENT.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH
A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE AREA.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS REASONABLY WELL.

MIN TEMPS COULD BRING FROST INTO PLAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...BUT TEMPS FOR FROST ARE BORDERLINE
AT BEST AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION. NEXT
POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 201800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...THEN MFVR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

AFTER A STRONGER THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA...SOME LIGHT SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS OR NEAR SOME OF THE
SITES...HOWEVER DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THESE WILL IMPACT FLIGHT
CATEGORY AND THUS WILL JUST INCLUDE VCSH WITH THEM. TONIGHT TIME
HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES STARTING AFTER AROUND 6Z AND POTENTIALLY
CONTINUING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY TUESDAY WHICH WAS
INDICATED IN MANY OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 201759
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
159 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TO
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH LATE WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE GRIDS AS SHOWERS NORTH OF IND HAVE
DISPLAYED A FEW STRIKES IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. SMALL HAIL MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SUB 10K FREEZING LEVELS BUT IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL BEYOND LIGHTNING THREAT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 937 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

GOING FORECAST IN RELATIVELY GOOD SHAPE. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST
AREA...SO HAVE BACKED UP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THAT AREA AND
DELAYED DRY FORECAST MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PULLED PRE-FIRST PERIOD POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...ROUGHLY
NORTH OF A TERRE HAUT TO NOBLESVILLE LINE PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON SHOWER COVERAGE AND TIMING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

300K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...850-500 MILLIBAR Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE...VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AND FINALLY RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST BEST POPS TODAY WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY AND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. EVEN THERE...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL
ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE
DRY AFTER THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE EXITS PRIOR TO 12Z. WITH
1000-850 MILLIBAR LAYER REMAINING MOIST...COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT
AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON CU AND A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH LATE DAY
EAST.

WITH WARMER MOS NUMBERS FROM THE 00Z RUN...PREFER TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN CONSALL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S
NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST LOOKING REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF IT ALONG WITH FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...WOULD
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...PREFER TO JUST KEEP MORE CLOUD
COVER THERE FOR NOW AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE LAKE IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND DRY FORECAST MATCHES UP BETTER WITH OUR
NEIGHBORS.

BY MIDWEEK...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY WEATHER. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS PER BLEND ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...FROST LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN
MORE SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION. NEXT
POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 201800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...THEN MFVR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

AFTER A STRONGER THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA...SOME LIGHT SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS OR NEAR SOME OF THE
SITES...HOWEVER DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THESE WILL IMPACT FLIGHT
CATEGORY AND THUS WILL JUST INCLUDE VCSH WITH THEM. TONIGHT TIME
HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES STARTING AFTER AROUND 6Z AND POTENTIALLY
CONTINUING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY TUESDAY WHICH WAS
INDICATED IN MANY OF THE TERMINALS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 201759
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
159 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TO
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH LATE WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE GRIDS AS SHOWERS NORTH OF IND HAVE
DISPLAYED A FEW STRIKES IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. SMALL HAIL MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SUB 10K FREEZING LEVELS BUT IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL BEYOND LIGHTNING THREAT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 937 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

GOING FORECAST IN RELATIVELY GOOD SHAPE. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST
AREA...SO HAVE BACKED UP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THAT AREA AND
DELAYED DRY FORECAST MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PULLED PRE-FIRST PERIOD POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...ROUGHLY
NORTH OF A TERRE HAUT TO NOBLESVILLE LINE PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON SHOWER COVERAGE AND TIMING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

300K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...850-500 MILLIBAR Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE...VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AND FINALLY RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST BEST POPS TODAY WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY AND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. EVEN THERE...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL
ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE
DRY AFTER THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE EXITS PRIOR TO 12Z. WITH
1000-850 MILLIBAR LAYER REMAINING MOIST...COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT
AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON CU AND A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH LATE DAY
EAST.

WITH WARMER MOS NUMBERS FROM THE 00Z RUN...PREFER TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN CONSALL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S
NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST LOOKING REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF IT ALONG WITH FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...WOULD
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...PREFER TO JUST KEEP MORE CLOUD
COVER THERE FOR NOW AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE LAKE IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND DRY FORECAST MATCHES UP BETTER WITH OUR
NEIGHBORS.

BY MIDWEEK...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY WEATHER. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS PER BLEND ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...FROST LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN
MORE SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION. NEXT
POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 201800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...THEN MFVR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

AFTER A STRONGER THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA...SOME LIGHT SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS OR NEAR SOME OF THE
SITES...HOWEVER DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THESE WILL IMPACT FLIGHT
CATEGORY AND THUS WILL JUST INCLUDE VCSH WITH THEM. TONIGHT TIME
HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES STARTING AFTER AROUND 6Z AND POTENTIALLY
CONTINUING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY TUESDAY WHICH WAS
INDICATED IN MANY OF THE TERMINALS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 201703
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
103 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TO
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH LATE WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE GRIDS AS SHOWERS NORTH OF IND HAVE
DISPLAYED A FEW STRIKES IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. SMALL HAIL MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SUB 10K FREEZING LEVELS BUT IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL BEYOND LIGHTNING THREAT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 937 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

GOING FORECAST IN RELATIVELY GOOD SHAPE. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST
AREA...SO HAVE BACKED UP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THAT AREA AND
DELAYED DRY FORECAST MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PULLED PRE-FIRST PERIOD POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...ROUGHLY
NORTH OF A TERRE HAUT TO NOBLESVILLE LINE PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON SHOWER COVERAGE AND TIMING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

300K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...850-500 MILLIBAR Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE...VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AND FINALLY RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST BEST POPS TODAY WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY AND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. EVEN THERE...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL
ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE
DRY AFTER THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE EXITS PRIOR TO 12Z. WITH
1000-850 MILLIBAR LAYER REMAINING MOIST...COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT
AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON CU AND A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH LATE DAY
EAST.

WITH WARMER MOS NUMBERS FROM THE 00Z RUN...PREFER TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN CONSALL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S
NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST LOOKING REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF IT ALONG WITH FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...WOULD
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...PREFER TO JUST KEEP MORE CLOUD
COVER THERE FOR NOW AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE LAKE IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND DRY FORECAST MATCHES UP BETTER WITH OUR
NEIGHBORS.

BY MIDWEEK...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY WEATHER. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS PER BLEND ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...FROST LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN
MORE SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THE ONLY POSSIBLE KINK IN THIS IS ON FRIDAY WHEN A WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TO OHIO...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE ALL IT
WILL DO IS INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BUT THEN RETURN
TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 201800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...THEN MFVR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

AFTER A STRONGER THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA...SOME LIGHT SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS OR NEAR SOME OF THE
SITES...HOWEVER DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THESE WILL IMPACT FLIGHT
CATEGORY AND THUS WILL JUST INCLUDE VCSH WITH THEM. TONIGHT TIME
HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES STARTING AFTER AROUND 6Z AND POTENTIALLY
CONTINUING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY TUESDAY WHICH WAS
INDICATED IN MANY OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 201703
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
103 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TO
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH LATE WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE GRIDS AS SHOWERS NORTH OF IND HAVE
DISPLAYED A FEW STRIKES IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. SMALL HAIL MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SUB 10K FREEZING LEVELS BUT IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL BEYOND LIGHTNING THREAT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 937 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

GOING FORECAST IN RELATIVELY GOOD SHAPE. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST
AREA...SO HAVE BACKED UP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THAT AREA AND
DELAYED DRY FORECAST MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PULLED PRE-FIRST PERIOD POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...ROUGHLY
NORTH OF A TERRE HAUT TO NOBLESVILLE LINE PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON SHOWER COVERAGE AND TIMING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

300K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...850-500 MILLIBAR Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE...VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AND FINALLY RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST BEST POPS TODAY WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY AND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. EVEN THERE...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL
ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE
DRY AFTER THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE EXITS PRIOR TO 12Z. WITH
1000-850 MILLIBAR LAYER REMAINING MOIST...COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT
AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON CU AND A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH LATE DAY
EAST.

WITH WARMER MOS NUMBERS FROM THE 00Z RUN...PREFER TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN CONSALL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S
NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST LOOKING REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF IT ALONG WITH FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...WOULD
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...PREFER TO JUST KEEP MORE CLOUD
COVER THERE FOR NOW AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE LAKE IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND DRY FORECAST MATCHES UP BETTER WITH OUR
NEIGHBORS.

BY MIDWEEK...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY WEATHER. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS PER BLEND ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...FROST LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN
MORE SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THE ONLY POSSIBLE KINK IN THIS IS ON FRIDAY WHEN A WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TO OHIO...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE ALL IT
WILL DO IS INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BUT THEN RETURN
TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 201800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...THEN MFVR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

AFTER A STRONGER THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA...SOME LIGHT SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS OR NEAR SOME OF THE
SITES...HOWEVER DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THESE WILL IMPACT FLIGHT
CATEGORY AND THUS WILL JUST INCLUDE VCSH WITH THEM. TONIGHT TIME
HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES STARTING AFTER AROUND 6Z AND POTENTIALLY
CONTINUING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY TUESDAY WHICH WAS
INDICATED IN MANY OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 201636
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1235 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TO
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH LATE WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE GRIDS AS SHOWERS NORTH OF IND HAVE
DISPLAYED A FEW STRIKES IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. SMALL HAIL MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SUB 10K FREEZING LEVELS BUT IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL BEYOND LIGHTNING THREAT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 937 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

GOING FORECAST IN RELATIVELY GOOD SHAPE. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST
AREA...SO HAVE BACKED UP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THAT AREA AND
DELAYED DRY FORECAST MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PULLED PRE-FIRST PERIOD POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...ROUGHLY
NORTH OF A TERRE HAUT TO NOBLESVILLE LINE PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON SHOWER COVERAGE AND TIMING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

300K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...850-500 MILLIBAR Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE...VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AND FINALLY RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST BEST POPS TODAY WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY AND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. EVEN THERE...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL
ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE
DRY AFTER THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE EXITS PRIOR TO 12Z. WITH
1000-850 MILLIBAR LAYER REMAINING MOIST...COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT
AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON CU AND A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH LATE DAY
EAST.

WITH WARMER MOS NUMBERS FROM THE 00Z RUN...PREFER TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN CONSALL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S
NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST LOOKING REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF IT ALONG WITH FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...WOULD
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...PREFER TO JUST KEEP MORE CLOUD
COVER THERE FOR NOW AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE LAKE IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND DRY FORECAST MATCHES UP BETTER WITH OUR
NEIGHBORS.

BY MIDWEEK...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY WEATHER. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS PER BLEND ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...FROST LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN
MORE SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THE ONLY POSSIBLE KINK IN THIS IS ON FRIDAY WHEN A WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TO OHIO...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE ALL IT
WILL DO IS INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BUT THEN RETURN
TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 201200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

1420Z UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WIND DIRECTION AS
WINDS HAVE NOT COME AROUND TO THE W/SW QUITE ENOUGH JUST YET.
PUSHED THIS BACK A FEW HOURS. ALSO REMOVED GUSTS FROM KLAF...AND
DEBATED ABOUT WHETHER TO REMOVE FROM KIND BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
THEM IN AT 18 KT. OTHERWISE MENTION OF VCSH WILL CONTINUE ALONG
WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS OR NEAR SEVERAL OF THE
SITES...HOWEVER DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THESE WILL IMPACT FLIGHT
CATEGORY AND THUS WILL JUST INCLUDE VCSH WITH THEM. EXPECT LOWER
/BUT STILL VFR/ CEILINGS TO FORM LATER THIS MORNING UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW AND SHOWER/SPRINKLE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. TONIGHT TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES STARTING AFTER AROUND 6Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...SMF/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 201423
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1023 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TO
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH LATE WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 937 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

GOING FORECAST IN RELATIVELY GOOD SHAPE. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST
AREA...SO HAVE BACKED UP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THAT AREA AND
DELAYED DRY FORECAST MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PULLED PRE-FIRST PERIOD POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...ROUGHLY
NORTH OF A TERRE HAUT TO NOBLESVILLE LINE PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON SHOWER COVERAGE AND TIMING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

300K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...850-500 MILLIBAR Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE...VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AND FINALLY RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST BEST POPS TODAY WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY AND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. EVEN THERE...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL
ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE
DRY AFTER THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE EXITS PRIOR TO 12Z. WITH
1000-850 MILLIBAR LAYER REMAINING MOIST...COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT
AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON CU AND A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH LATE DAY
EAST.

WITH WARMER MOS NUMBERS FROM THE 00Z RUN...PREFER TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN CONSALL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S
NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST LOOKING REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF IT ALONG WITH FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...WOULD
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...PREFER TO JUST KEEP MORE CLOUD
COVER THERE FOR NOW AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE LAKE IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND DRY FORECAST MATCHES UP BETTER WITH OUR
NEIGHBORS.

BY MIDWEEK...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY WEATHER. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS PER BLEND ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...FROST LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN
MORE SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THE ONLY POSSIBLE KINK IN THIS IS ON FRIDAY WHEN A WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TO OHIO...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE ALL IT
WILL DO IS INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BUT THEN RETURN
TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 201200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

1420Z UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WIND DIRECTION AS
WINDS HAVE NOT COME AROUND TO THE W/SW QUITE ENOUGH JUST YET.
PUSHED THIS BACK A FEW HOURS. ALSO REMOVED GUSTS FROM KLAF...AND
DEBATED ABOUT WHETHER TO REMOVE FROM KIND BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
THEM IN AT 18 KT. OTHERWISE MENTION OF VCSH WILL CONTINUE ALONG
WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS OR NEAR SEVERAL OF THE
SITES...HOWEVER DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THESE WILL IMPACT FLIGHT
CATEGORY AND THUS WILL JUST INCLUDE VCSH WITH THEM. EXPECT LOWER
/BUT STILL VFR/ CEILINGS TO FORM LATER THIS MORNING UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW AND SHOWER/SPRINKLE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES STARTING AFTER AROUND 6Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...SMF/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 201423
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1023 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TO
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH LATE WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 937 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

GOING FORECAST IN RELATIVELY GOOD SHAPE. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST
AREA...SO HAVE BACKED UP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THAT AREA AND
DELAYED DRY FORECAST MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PULLED PRE-FIRST PERIOD POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...ROUGHLY
NORTH OF A TERRE HAUT TO NOBLESVILLE LINE PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON SHOWER COVERAGE AND TIMING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

300K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...850-500 MILLIBAR Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE...VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AND FINALLY RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST BEST POPS TODAY WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY AND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. EVEN THERE...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL
ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE
DRY AFTER THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE EXITS PRIOR TO 12Z. WITH
1000-850 MILLIBAR LAYER REMAINING MOIST...COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT
AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON CU AND A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH LATE DAY
EAST.

WITH WARMER MOS NUMBERS FROM THE 00Z RUN...PREFER TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN CONSALL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S
NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST LOOKING REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF IT ALONG WITH FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...WOULD
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...PREFER TO JUST KEEP MORE CLOUD
COVER THERE FOR NOW AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE LAKE IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND DRY FORECAST MATCHES UP BETTER WITH OUR
NEIGHBORS.

BY MIDWEEK...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY WEATHER. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS PER BLEND ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...FROST LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN
MORE SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THE ONLY POSSIBLE KINK IN THIS IS ON FRIDAY WHEN A WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TO OHIO...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE ALL IT
WILL DO IS INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BUT THEN RETURN
TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 201200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

1420Z UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WIND DIRECTION AS
WINDS HAVE NOT COME AROUND TO THE W/SW QUITE ENOUGH JUST YET.
PUSHED THIS BACK A FEW HOURS. ALSO REMOVED GUSTS FROM KLAF...AND
DEBATED ABOUT WHETHER TO REMOVE FROM KIND BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
THEM IN AT 18 KT. OTHERWISE MENTION OF VCSH WILL CONTINUE ALONG
WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS OR NEAR SEVERAL OF THE
SITES...HOWEVER DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THESE WILL IMPACT FLIGHT
CATEGORY AND THUS WILL JUST INCLUDE VCSH WITH THEM. EXPECT LOWER
/BUT STILL VFR/ CEILINGS TO FORM LATER THIS MORNING UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW AND SHOWER/SPRINKLE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES STARTING AFTER AROUND 6Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...SMF/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 201337
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
937 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TO
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH LATE WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 937 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

GOING FORECAST IN RELATIVELY GOOD SHAPE. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST
AREA...SO HAVE BACKED UP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THAT AREA AND
DELAYED DRY FORECAST MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PULLED PRE-FIRST PERIOD POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...ROUGHLY
NORTH OF A TERRE HAUT TO NOBLESVILLE LINE PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON SHOWER COVERAGE AND TIMING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

300K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...850-500 MILLIBAR Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE...VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AND FINALLY RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST BEST POPS TODAY WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY AND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. EVEN THERE...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL
ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE
DRY AFTER THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE EXITS PRIOR TO 12Z. WITH
1000-850 MILLIBAR LAYER REMAINING MOIST...COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT
AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON CU AND A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH LATE DAY
EAST.

WITH WARMER MOS NUMBERS FROM THE 00Z RUN...PREFER TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN CONSALL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S
NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST LOOKING REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF IT ALONG WITH FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...WOULD
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...PREFER TO JUST KEEP MORE CLOUD
COVER THERE FOR NOW AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE LAKE IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND DRY FORECAST MATCHES UP BETTER WITH OUR
NEIGHBORS.

BY MIDWEEK...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY WEATHER. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS PER BLEND ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...FROST LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN
MORE SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THE ONLY POSSIBLE KINK IN THIS IS ON FRIDAY WHEN A WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TO OHIO...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE ALL IT
WILL DO IS INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BUT THEN RETURN
TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 201200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 644 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS OR NEAR SEVERAL OF THE
SITES...HOWEVER DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THESE WILL IMPACT FLIGHT
CATEGORY AND THUS WILL JUST INCLUDE VCSH WITH THEM. EXPECT LOWER
/BUT STILL VFR/ CEILINGS TO FORM LATER THIS MORNING UNDER
CYCOLONIC FLOW AND SHOWER/SPRINKLE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES STARTING AFTER AROUND 6Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 201337
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
937 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TO
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH LATE WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 937 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

GOING FORECAST IN RELATIVELY GOOD SHAPE. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST
AREA...SO HAVE BACKED UP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THAT AREA AND
DELAYED DRY FORECAST MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PULLED PRE-FIRST PERIOD POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...ROUGHLY
NORTH OF A TERRE HAUT TO NOBLESVILLE LINE PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON SHOWER COVERAGE AND TIMING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

300K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...850-500 MILLIBAR Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE...VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AND FINALLY RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST BEST POPS TODAY WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY AND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. EVEN THERE...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL
ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE
DRY AFTER THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE EXITS PRIOR TO 12Z. WITH
1000-850 MILLIBAR LAYER REMAINING MOIST...COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT
AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON CU AND A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH LATE DAY
EAST.

WITH WARMER MOS NUMBERS FROM THE 00Z RUN...PREFER TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN CONSALL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S
NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST LOOKING REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF IT ALONG WITH FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...WOULD
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...PREFER TO JUST KEEP MORE CLOUD
COVER THERE FOR NOW AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE LAKE IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND DRY FORECAST MATCHES UP BETTER WITH OUR
NEIGHBORS.

BY MIDWEEK...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY WEATHER. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS PER BLEND ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...FROST LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN
MORE SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THE ONLY POSSIBLE KINK IN THIS IS ON FRIDAY WHEN A WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TO OHIO...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE ALL IT
WILL DO IS INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BUT THEN RETURN
TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 201200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 644 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS OR NEAR SEVERAL OF THE
SITES...HOWEVER DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THESE WILL IMPACT FLIGHT
CATEGORY AND THUS WILL JUST INCLUDE VCSH WITH THEM. EXPECT LOWER
/BUT STILL VFR/ CEILINGS TO FORM LATER THIS MORNING UNDER
CYCOLONIC FLOW AND SHOWER/SPRINKLE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES STARTING AFTER AROUND 6Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 201050
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
650 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TO
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH LATE WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PULLED PRE-FIRST PERIOD POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...ROUGHLY
NORTH OF A TERRE HAUT TO NOBLESVILLE LINE PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON SHOWER COVERAGE AND TIMING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

300K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...850-500 MILLIBAR Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE...VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AND FINALLY RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST BEST POPS TODAY WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY AND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. EVEN THERE...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL
ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE
DRY AFTER THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE EXITS PRIOR TO 12Z. WITH
1000-850 MILLIBAR LAYER REMAINING MOIST...COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT
AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON CU AND A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH LATE DAY
EAST.

WITH WARMER MOS NUMBERS FROM THE 00Z RUN...PREFER TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN CONSALL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S
NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST LOOKING REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF IT ALONG WITH FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...WOULD
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...PREFER TO JUST KEEP MORE CLOUD
COVER THERE FOR NOW AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE LAKE IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND DRY FORECAST MATCHES UP BETTER WITH OUR
NEIGHBORS.

BY MIDWEEK...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY WEATHER. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS PER BLEND ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...FROST LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN
MORE SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THE ONLY POSSIBLE KINK IN THIS IS ON FRIDAY WHEN A WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TO OHIO...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE ALL IT
WILL DO IS INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BUT THEN RETURN
TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 201200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 644 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS OR NEAR SEVERAL OF THE
SITES...HOWEVER DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THESE WILL IMPACT FLIGHT
CATEGORY AND THUS WILL JUST INCLUDE VCSH WITH THEM. EXPECT LOWER
/BUT STILL VFR/ CEILINGS TO FORM LATER THIS MORNING UNDER
CYCOLONIC FLOW AND SHOWER/SPRINKLE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES STARTING AFTER AROUND 6Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 201050
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
650 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TO
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH LATE WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PULLED PRE-FIRST PERIOD POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...ROUGHLY
NORTH OF A TERRE HAUT TO NOBLESVILLE LINE PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON SHOWER COVERAGE AND TIMING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

300K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...850-500 MILLIBAR Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE...VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AND FINALLY RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST BEST POPS TODAY WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY AND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. EVEN THERE...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL
ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE
DRY AFTER THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE EXITS PRIOR TO 12Z. WITH
1000-850 MILLIBAR LAYER REMAINING MOIST...COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT
AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON CU AND A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH LATE DAY
EAST.

WITH WARMER MOS NUMBERS FROM THE 00Z RUN...PREFER TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN CONSALL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S
NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST LOOKING REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF IT ALONG WITH FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...WOULD
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...PREFER TO JUST KEEP MORE CLOUD
COVER THERE FOR NOW AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE LAKE IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND DRY FORECAST MATCHES UP BETTER WITH OUR
NEIGHBORS.

BY MIDWEEK...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY WEATHER. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS PER BLEND ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...FROST LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN
MORE SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THE ONLY POSSIBLE KINK IN THIS IS ON FRIDAY WHEN A WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TO OHIO...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE ALL IT
WILL DO IS INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BUT THEN RETURN
TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 201200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 644 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS OR NEAR SEVERAL OF THE
SITES...HOWEVER DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THESE WILL IMPACT FLIGHT
CATEGORY AND THUS WILL JUST INCLUDE VCSH WITH THEM. EXPECT LOWER
/BUT STILL VFR/ CEILINGS TO FORM LATER THIS MORNING UNDER
CYCOLONIC FLOW AND SHOWER/SPRINKLE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES STARTING AFTER AROUND 6Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 201008
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
608 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TO
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH LATE WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PULLED PRE-FIRST PERIOD POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...ROUGHLY
NORTH OF A TERRE HAUT TO NOBLESVILLE LINE PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON SHOWER COVERAGE AND TIMING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

300K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...850-500 MILLIBAR Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE...VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AND FINALLY RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST BEST POPS TODAY WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY AND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. EVEN THERE...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL
ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE
DRY AFTER THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE EXITS PRIOR TO 12Z. WITH
1000-850 MILLIBAR LAYER REMAINING MOIST...COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT
AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON CU AND A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH LATE DAY
EAST.

WITH WARMER MOS NUMBERS FROM THE 00Z RUN...PREFER TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN CONSALL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S
NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST LOOKING REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF IT ALONG WITH FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...WOULD
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...PREFER TO JUST KEEP MORE CLOUD
COVER THERE FOR NOW AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE LAKE IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND DRY FORECAST MATCHES UP BETTER WITH OUR
NEIGHBORS.

BY MIDWEEK...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY WEATHER. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS PER BLEND ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...FROST LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN
MORE SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THE ONLY POSSIBLE KINK IN THIS IS ON FRIDAY WHEN A WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TO OHIO...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE ALL IT
WILL DO IS INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BUT THEN RETURN
TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200900 TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

INDIANA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER APPALACHIA AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. IR SHOWS MID AND HIGH CLOUD
STREAMING ACROSS INDIANA AT THIS TIME...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AFTER SUN-UP...DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE ONSET OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND A PASSING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CU OR SC. ISOLATED SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE FOR SPECIFIC TIMING IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. CCL/S SUGGEST VFR CIGS ON MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 201008
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
608 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TO
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH LATE WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PULLED PRE-FIRST PERIOD POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...ROUGHLY
NORTH OF A TERRE HAUT TO NOBLESVILLE LINE PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON SHOWER COVERAGE AND TIMING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

300K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...850-500 MILLIBAR Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE...VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AND FINALLY RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST BEST POPS TODAY WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY AND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. EVEN THERE...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL
ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE
DRY AFTER THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE EXITS PRIOR TO 12Z. WITH
1000-850 MILLIBAR LAYER REMAINING MOIST...COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT
AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON CU AND A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH LATE DAY
EAST.

WITH WARMER MOS NUMBERS FROM THE 00Z RUN...PREFER TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN CONSALL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S
NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST LOOKING REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF IT ALONG WITH FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...WOULD
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...PREFER TO JUST KEEP MORE CLOUD
COVER THERE FOR NOW AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE LAKE IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND DRY FORECAST MATCHES UP BETTER WITH OUR
NEIGHBORS.

BY MIDWEEK...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY WEATHER. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS PER BLEND ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...FROST LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN
MORE SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THE ONLY POSSIBLE KINK IN THIS IS ON FRIDAY WHEN A WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TO OHIO...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE ALL IT
WILL DO IS INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BUT THEN RETURN
TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200900 TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

INDIANA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER APPALACHIA AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. IR SHOWS MID AND HIGH CLOUD
STREAMING ACROSS INDIANA AT THIS TIME...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AFTER SUN-UP...DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE ONSET OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND A PASSING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CU OR SC. ISOLATED SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE FOR SPECIFIC TIMING IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. CCL/S SUGGEST VFR CIGS ON MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 200820
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
420 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TO
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH LATE WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON SHOWER COVERAGE AND TIMING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

300K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...850-500 MILLIBAR Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE...VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AND FINALLY RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST BEST POPS TODAY WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY AND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. EVEN THERE...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL
ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE
DRY AFTER THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE EXITS PRIOR TO 12Z. WITH
1000-850 MILLIBAR LAYER REMAINING MOIST...COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT
AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON CU AND A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH LATE DAY
EAST.

WITH WARMER MOS NUMBERS FROM THE 00Z RUN...PREFER TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN CONSALL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S
NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST LOOKING REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF IT ALONG WITH FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...WOULD
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...PREFER TO JUST KEEP MORE CLOUD
COVER THERE FOR NOW AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE LAKE IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND DRY FORECAST MATCHES UP BETTER WITH OUR
NEIGHBORS.

BY MIDWEEK...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY WEATHER. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS PER BLEND ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...FROST LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN
MORE SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THE ONLY POSSIBLE KINK IN THIS IS ON FRIDAY WHEN A WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TO OHIO...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE ALL IT
WILL DO IS INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BUT THEN RETURN
TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200900 TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

INDIANA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER APPALACHIA AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. IR SHOWS MID AND HIGH CLOUD
STREAMING ACROSS INDIANA AT THIS TIME...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AFTER SUN-UP...DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE ONSET OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND A PASSING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CU OR SC. ISOLATED SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE FOR SPECIFIC TIMING IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. CCL/S SUGGEST VFR CIGS ON MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 200820
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
420 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TO
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH LATE WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON SHOWER COVERAGE AND TIMING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

300K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...850-500 MILLIBAR Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE...VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AND FINALLY RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST BEST POPS TODAY WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY AND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. EVEN THERE...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL
ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE
DRY AFTER THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE EXITS PRIOR TO 12Z. WITH
1000-850 MILLIBAR LAYER REMAINING MOIST...COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT
AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON CU AND A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH LATE DAY
EAST.

WITH WARMER MOS NUMBERS FROM THE 00Z RUN...PREFER TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN CONSALL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S
NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST LOOKING REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF IT ALONG WITH FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...WOULD
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...PREFER TO JUST KEEP MORE CLOUD
COVER THERE FOR NOW AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE LAKE IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND DRY FORECAST MATCHES UP BETTER WITH OUR
NEIGHBORS.

BY MIDWEEK...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY WEATHER. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS PER BLEND ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...FROST LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN
MORE SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THE ONLY POSSIBLE KINK IN THIS IS ON FRIDAY WHEN A WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TO OHIO...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE ALL IT
WILL DO IS INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BUT THEN RETURN
TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200900 TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

INDIANA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER APPALACHIA AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. IR SHOWS MID AND HIGH CLOUD
STREAMING ACROSS INDIANA AT THIS TIME...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AFTER SUN-UP...DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE ONSET OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND A PASSING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CU OR SC. ISOLATED SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE FOR SPECIFIC TIMING IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. CCL/S SUGGEST VFR CIGS ON MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 200727
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TO
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH LATE WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON SHOWER COVERAGE AND TIMING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

300K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...850-500 MILLIBAR Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE...VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AND FINALLY RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST BEST POPS TODAY WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY AND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. EVEN THERE...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL
ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE
DRY AFTER THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE EXITS PRIOR TO 12Z. WITH
1000-850 MILLIBAR LAYER REMAINING MOIST...COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT
AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON CU AND A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH LATE DAY
EAST.

WITH WARMER MOS NUMBERS FROM THE 00Z RUN...PREFER TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN CONSALL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S
NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST LOOKING REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF IT ALONG WITH FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...WOULD
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...PREFER TO JUST KEEP MORE CLOUD
COVER THERE FOR NOW AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE LAKE IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND DRY FORECAST MATCHES UP BETTER WITH OUR
NEIGHBORS.

BY MIDWEEK...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY WEATHER. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS PER BLEND ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...FROST LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN
MORE SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THE ONLY POSSIBLE KINK IN THIS IS ON FRIDAY WHEN A WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TO OHIO...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE ALL IT
WILL DO IS INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BUT THEN RETURN
TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200600 TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

INDIANA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER APPALACHIA AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. IR SHOWS MID AND HIGH CLOUD
STREAMING ACROSS INDIANA AT THIS TIME...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AFTER SUN-UP...DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE ONSET OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND A PASSING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CU OR SC. ISOLATED SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE FOR SPECIFIC TIMING IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. CCL/S SUGGEST VFR CIGS ON MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 200727
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TO
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH LATE WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON SHOWER COVERAGE AND TIMING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

300K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...850-500 MILLIBAR Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE...VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AND FINALLY RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST BEST POPS TODAY WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY AND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. EVEN THERE...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL
ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE
DRY AFTER THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE EXITS PRIOR TO 12Z. WITH
1000-850 MILLIBAR LAYER REMAINING MOIST...COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT
AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON CU AND A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH LATE DAY
EAST.

WITH WARMER MOS NUMBERS FROM THE 00Z RUN...PREFER TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN CONSALL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S
NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST LOOKING REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF IT ALONG WITH FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...WOULD
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...PREFER TO JUST KEEP MORE CLOUD
COVER THERE FOR NOW AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE LAKE IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND DRY FORECAST MATCHES UP BETTER WITH OUR
NEIGHBORS.

BY MIDWEEK...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY WEATHER. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS PER BLEND ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...FROST LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN
MORE SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THE ONLY POSSIBLE KINK IN THIS IS ON FRIDAY WHEN A WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TO OHIO...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE ALL IT
WILL DO IS INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BUT THEN RETURN
TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200600 TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

INDIANA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER APPALACHIA AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. IR SHOWS MID AND HIGH CLOUD
STREAMING ACROSS INDIANA AT THIS TIME...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AFTER SUN-UP...DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE ONSET OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND A PASSING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CU OR SC. ISOLATED SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE FOR SPECIFIC TIMING IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. CCL/S SUGGEST VFR CIGS ON MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 200708
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
308 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A PREDOMINANTLY NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 916 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY
DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT
THE MID LEVELS BECOME CLOSE TO SATURATION...SO THE SHOWER CHANCE
OVERNIGHT IS STILL WARRANTED.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHING FORECAST LOWS IN SOME AREAS AT
THIS TIME. THE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO PUT A HALT ON THE
TEMPERATURE FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL ALLOW FOR READINGS TO
FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE LEVELING OFF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

STRATUS HAS FINALLY BROKEN UP OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MIXING HAS OCCURRED. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AREAS ALONG THE LOWER WABASH AND SOUTH OF KBMG...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WERE IN THE 50S AT 19Z.

RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS OFF TO
THE EAST. FOCUS SHIFTS TO A WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT INITIALLY AS GULF FEED IS CUTOFF...BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUBTLY INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THINKING AS WELL AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT.

TEMPS...TOOK A MOSBLEND ON LOWS TONIGHT AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE IN
PRIMARILY THE MID 40S. SHOULD SEE TEMPS DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING
THEN LEVEL OFF OVERNIGHT AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SPOTTY
PRECIP ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. UPPER WAVE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS THE SURFACE
WAVE AND COLD FRONT SWING ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER WAVE WILL
CLOSE OFF AND PINWHEEL INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK...
KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN.

STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FORCING ALOFT ARRIVE WITH THE FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COMBINED WITH A MORE ENHANCED AREA OF DIV Q DIVING
THROUGH THE REGION...SHOULD SEE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COMING ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PASSES. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS MONDAY
NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING LIKELY TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
THREAT FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. OP
GFS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OR BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
STREAMING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS THINKING ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM THE
HI-RES NMM AND ARW WHICH HINT AT LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY.

THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND A WEAKENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DRY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT EXPECT
A CU FIELD TO REDEVELOP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH CENTRAL INDIANA RESIDING
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT.

TEMPS...GENERALLY UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST ACCRUAL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S...ALTHOUGH
APPEARS SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY UP A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THE ONLY POSSIBLE KINK IN THIS IS ON FRIDAY WHEN A WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TO OHIO...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE ALL IT
WILL DO IS INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BUT THEN RETURN
TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200600 TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

INDIANA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER APPALACHIA AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. IR SHOWS MID AND HIGH CLOUD
STREAMING ACROSS INDIANA AT THIS TIME...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AFTER SUN-UP...DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE ONSET OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND A PASSING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CU OR SC. ISOLATED SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE FOR SPECIFIC TIMING IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. CCL/S SUGGEST VFR CIGS ON MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JAS
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 200708
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
308 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A PREDOMINANTLY NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 916 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY
DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT
THE MID LEVELS BECOME CLOSE TO SATURATION...SO THE SHOWER CHANCE
OVERNIGHT IS STILL WARRANTED.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHING FORECAST LOWS IN SOME AREAS AT
THIS TIME. THE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO PUT A HALT ON THE
TEMPERATURE FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL ALLOW FOR READINGS TO
FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE LEVELING OFF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

STRATUS HAS FINALLY BROKEN UP OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MIXING HAS OCCURRED. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AREAS ALONG THE LOWER WABASH AND SOUTH OF KBMG...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WERE IN THE 50S AT 19Z.

RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS OFF TO
THE EAST. FOCUS SHIFTS TO A WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT INITIALLY AS GULF FEED IS CUTOFF...BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUBTLY INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THINKING AS WELL AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT.

TEMPS...TOOK A MOSBLEND ON LOWS TONIGHT AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE IN
PRIMARILY THE MID 40S. SHOULD SEE TEMPS DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING
THEN LEVEL OFF OVERNIGHT AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SPOTTY
PRECIP ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. UPPER WAVE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS THE SURFACE
WAVE AND COLD FRONT SWING ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER WAVE WILL
CLOSE OFF AND PINWHEEL INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK...
KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN.

STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FORCING ALOFT ARRIVE WITH THE FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COMBINED WITH A MORE ENHANCED AREA OF DIV Q DIVING
THROUGH THE REGION...SHOULD SEE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COMING ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PASSES. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS MONDAY
NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING LIKELY TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
THREAT FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. OP
GFS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OR BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
STREAMING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS THINKING ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM THE
HI-RES NMM AND ARW WHICH HINT AT LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY.

THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND A WEAKENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DRY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT EXPECT
A CU FIELD TO REDEVELOP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH CENTRAL INDIANA RESIDING
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT.

TEMPS...GENERALLY UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST ACCRUAL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S...ALTHOUGH
APPEARS SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY UP A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THE ONLY POSSIBLE KINK IN THIS IS ON FRIDAY WHEN A WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TO OHIO...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE ALL IT
WILL DO IS INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BUT THEN RETURN
TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200600 TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

INDIANA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER APPALACHIA AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. IR SHOWS MID AND HIGH CLOUD
STREAMING ACROSS INDIANA AT THIS TIME...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AFTER SUN-UP...DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE ONSET OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND A PASSING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CU OR SC. ISOLATED SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE FOR SPECIFIC TIMING IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. CCL/S SUGGEST VFR CIGS ON MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JAS
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 200430
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A PREDOMINANTLY NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 916 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY
DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT
THE MID LEVELS BECOME CLOSE TO SATURATION...SO THE SHOWER CHANCE
OVERNIGHT IS STILL WARRANTED.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHING FORECAST LOWS IN SOME AREAS AT
THIS TIME. THE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO PUT A HALT ON THE
TEMPERATURE FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL ALLOW FOR READINGS TO
FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE LEVELING OFF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

STRATUS HAS FINALLY BROKEN UP OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MIXING HAS OCCURRED. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AREAS ALONG THE LOWER WABASH AND SOUTH OF KBMG...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WERE IN THE 50S AT 19Z.

RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS OFF TO
THE EAST. FOCUS SHIFTS TO A WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT INITIALLY AS GULF FEED IS CUTOFF...BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUBTLY INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THINKING AS WELL AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT.

TEMPS...TOOK A MOSBLEND ON LOWS TONIGHT AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE IN
PRIMARILY THE MID 40S. SHOULD SEE TEMPS DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING
THEN LEVEL OFF OVERNIGHT AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SPOTTY
PRECIP ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. UPPER WAVE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS THE SURFACE
WAVE AND COLD FRONT SWING ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER WAVE WILL
CLOSE OFF AND PINWHEEL INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK...
KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN.

STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FORCING ALOFT ARRIVE WITH THE FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COMBINED WITH A MORE ENHANCED AREA OF DIV Q DIVING
THROUGH THE REGION...SHOULD SEE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COMING ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PASSES. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS MONDAY
NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING LIKELY TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
THREAT FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. OP
GFS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OR BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
STREAMING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS THINKING ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM THE
HI-RES NMM AND ARW WHICH HINT AT LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY.

THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND A WEAKENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DRY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT EXPECT
A CU FIELD TO REDEVELOP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH CENTRAL INDIANA RESIDING
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT.

TEMPS...GENERALLY UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST ACCRUAL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S...ALTHOUGH
APPEARS SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY UP A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE...THEN WARM INCREMENTALLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY. NO CHANGES
MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200600 TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

INDIANA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER APPALACHIA AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. IR SHOWS MID AND HIGH CLOUD
STREAMING ACROSS INDIANA AT THIS TIME...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AFTER SUN-UP...DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE ONSET OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND A PASSING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CU OR SC. ISOLATED SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE FOR SPECIFIC TIMING IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. CCL/S SUGGEST VFR CIGS ON MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JAS
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 200430
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A PREDOMINANTLY NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 916 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY
DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT
THE MID LEVELS BECOME CLOSE TO SATURATION...SO THE SHOWER CHANCE
OVERNIGHT IS STILL WARRANTED.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHING FORECAST LOWS IN SOME AREAS AT
THIS TIME. THE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO PUT A HALT ON THE
TEMPERATURE FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL ALLOW FOR READINGS TO
FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE LEVELING OFF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

STRATUS HAS FINALLY BROKEN UP OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MIXING HAS OCCURRED. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AREAS ALONG THE LOWER WABASH AND SOUTH OF KBMG...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WERE IN THE 50S AT 19Z.

RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS OFF TO
THE EAST. FOCUS SHIFTS TO A WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT INITIALLY AS GULF FEED IS CUTOFF...BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUBTLY INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THINKING AS WELL AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT.

TEMPS...TOOK A MOSBLEND ON LOWS TONIGHT AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE IN
PRIMARILY THE MID 40S. SHOULD SEE TEMPS DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING
THEN LEVEL OFF OVERNIGHT AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SPOTTY
PRECIP ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. UPPER WAVE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS THE SURFACE
WAVE AND COLD FRONT SWING ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER WAVE WILL
CLOSE OFF AND PINWHEEL INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK...
KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN.

STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FORCING ALOFT ARRIVE WITH THE FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COMBINED WITH A MORE ENHANCED AREA OF DIV Q DIVING
THROUGH THE REGION...SHOULD SEE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COMING ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PASSES. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS MONDAY
NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING LIKELY TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
THREAT FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. OP
GFS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OR BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
STREAMING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS THINKING ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM THE
HI-RES NMM AND ARW WHICH HINT AT LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY.

THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND A WEAKENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DRY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT EXPECT
A CU FIELD TO REDEVELOP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH CENTRAL INDIANA RESIDING
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT.

TEMPS...GENERALLY UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST ACCRUAL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S...ALTHOUGH
APPEARS SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY UP A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE...THEN WARM INCREMENTALLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY. NO CHANGES
MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200600 TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

INDIANA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER APPALACHIA AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. IR SHOWS MID AND HIGH CLOUD
STREAMING ACROSS INDIANA AT THIS TIME...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AFTER SUN-UP...DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE ONSET OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND A PASSING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CU OR SC. ISOLATED SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE FOR SPECIFIC TIMING IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. CCL/S SUGGEST VFR CIGS ON MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JAS
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 200204
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1004 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A PREDOMINANTLY NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 916 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY
DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT
THE MID LEVELS BECOME CLOSE TO SATURATION...SO THE SHOWER CHANCE
OVERNIGHT IS STILL WARRANTED.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHING FORECAST LOWS IN SOME AREAS AT
THIS TIME. THE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO PUT A HALT ON THE
TEMPERATURE FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL ALLOW FOR READINGS TO
FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE LEVELING OFF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

STRATUS HAS FINALLY BROKEN UP OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MIXING HAS OCCURRED. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AREAS ALONG THE LOWER WABASH AND SOUTH OF KBMG...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WERE IN THE 50S AT 19Z.

RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS OFF TO
THE EAST. FOCUS SHIFTS TO A WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT INITIALLY AS GULF FEED IS CUTOFF...BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUBTLY INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THINKING AS WELL AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT.

TEMPS...TOOK A MOSBLEND ON LOWS TONIGHT AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE IN
PRIMARILY THE MID 40S. SHOULD SEE TEMPS DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING
THEN LEVEL OFF OVERNIGHT AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SPOTTY
PRECIP ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. UPPER WAVE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS THE SURFACE
WAVE AND COLD FRONT SWING ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER WAVE WILL
CLOSE OFF AND PINWHEEL INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK...
KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN.

STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FORCING ALOFT ARRIVE WITH THE FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COMBINED WITH A MORE ENHANCED AREA OF DIV Q DIVING
THROUGH THE REGION...SHOULD SEE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COMING ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PASSES. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS MONDAY
NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING LIKELY TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
THREAT FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. OP
GFS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OR BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
STREAMING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS THINKING ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM THE
HI-RES NMM AND ARW WHICH HINT AT LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY.

THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND A WEAKENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DRY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT EXPECT
A CU FIELD TO REDEVELOP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH CENTRAL INDIANA RESIDING
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT.

TEMPS...GENERALLY UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST ACCRUAL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S...ALTHOUGH
APPEARS SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY UP A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE...THEN WARM INCREMENTALLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY. NO CHANGES
MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW HIGH AND MID CLOUD OVER ILLINOIS...INDIANA
AND MICHIGAN POISED TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ONGOING TAFS HANDLE THIS WELL. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 200000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 621 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. A
BROAD...POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD INDIANA ON
MONDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW THE ARRIVAL OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE AFTER 12Z MONDAY AS AND 850MB TROUGH PUSHES INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS. THUS HAVE INCLUDED SOME
VCSH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THESE SYSTEMS WORK THROUGH.

AS THE LOWER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN CYCLONIC INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AND THE 850MB RIDGE REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...WILL
CARRY MVFR CIGS INTO MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AS SEEN IN TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JAS
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 200204
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1004 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A PREDOMINANTLY NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 916 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY
DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT
THE MID LEVELS BECOME CLOSE TO SATURATION...SO THE SHOWER CHANCE
OVERNIGHT IS STILL WARRANTED.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHING FORECAST LOWS IN SOME AREAS AT
THIS TIME. THE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO PUT A HALT ON THE
TEMPERATURE FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL ALLOW FOR READINGS TO
FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE LEVELING OFF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

STRATUS HAS FINALLY BROKEN UP OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MIXING HAS OCCURRED. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AREAS ALONG THE LOWER WABASH AND SOUTH OF KBMG...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WERE IN THE 50S AT 19Z.

RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS OFF TO
THE EAST. FOCUS SHIFTS TO A WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT INITIALLY AS GULF FEED IS CUTOFF...BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUBTLY INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THINKING AS WELL AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT.

TEMPS...TOOK A MOSBLEND ON LOWS TONIGHT AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE IN
PRIMARILY THE MID 40S. SHOULD SEE TEMPS DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING
THEN LEVEL OFF OVERNIGHT AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SPOTTY
PRECIP ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. UPPER WAVE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS THE SURFACE
WAVE AND COLD FRONT SWING ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER WAVE WILL
CLOSE OFF AND PINWHEEL INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK...
KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN.

STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FORCING ALOFT ARRIVE WITH THE FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COMBINED WITH A MORE ENHANCED AREA OF DIV Q DIVING
THROUGH THE REGION...SHOULD SEE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COMING ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PASSES. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS MONDAY
NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING LIKELY TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
THREAT FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. OP
GFS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OR BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
STREAMING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS THINKING ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM THE
HI-RES NMM AND ARW WHICH HINT AT LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY.

THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND A WEAKENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DRY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT EXPECT
A CU FIELD TO REDEVELOP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH CENTRAL INDIANA RESIDING
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT.

TEMPS...GENERALLY UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST ACCRUAL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S...ALTHOUGH
APPEARS SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY UP A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE...THEN WARM INCREMENTALLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY. NO CHANGES
MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW HIGH AND MID CLOUD OVER ILLINOIS...INDIANA
AND MICHIGAN POISED TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ONGOING TAFS HANDLE THIS WELL. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 200000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 621 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. A
BROAD...POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD INDIANA ON
MONDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW THE ARRIVAL OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE AFTER 12Z MONDAY AS AND 850MB TROUGH PUSHES INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS. THUS HAVE INCLUDED SOME
VCSH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THESE SYSTEMS WORK THROUGH.

AS THE LOWER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN CYCLONIC INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AND THE 850MB RIDGE REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...WILL
CARRY MVFR CIGS INTO MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AS SEEN IN TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JAS
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 200118
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
916 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A PREDOMINANTLY NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 916 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY
DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT
THE MID LEVELS BECOME CLOSE TO SATURATION...SO THE SHOWER CHANCE
OVERNIGHT IS STILL WARRANTED.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHING FORECAST LOWS IN SOME AREAS AT
THIS TIME. THE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO PUT A HALT ON THE
TEMPERATURE FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL ALLOW FOR READINGS TO
FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE LEVELING OFF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

STRATUS HAS FINALLY BROKEN UP OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MIXING HAS OCCURRED. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AREAS ALONG THE LOWER WABASH AND SOUTH OF KBMG...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WERE IN THE 50S AT 19Z.

RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS OFF TO
THE EAST. FOCUS SHIFTS TO A WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT INITIALLY AS GULF FEED IS CUTOFF...BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUBTLY INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THINKING AS WELL AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT.

TEMPS...TOOK A MOSBLEND ON LOWS TONIGHT AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE IN
PRIMARILY THE MID 40S. SHOULD SEE TEMPS DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING
THEN LEVEL OFF OVERNIGHT AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SPOTTY
PRECIP ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. UPPER WAVE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS THE SURFACE
WAVE AND COLD FRONT SWING ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER WAVE WILL
CLOSE OFF AND PINWHEEL INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK...
KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN.

STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FORCING ALOFT ARRIVE WITH THE FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COMBINED WITH A MORE ENHANCED AREA OF DIV Q DIVING
THROUGH THE REGION...SHOULD SEE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COMING ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PASSES. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS MONDAY
NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING LIKELY TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
THREAT FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. OP
GFS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OR BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
STREAMING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS THINKING ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM THE
HI-RES NMM AND ARW WHICH HINT AT LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY.

THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND A WEAKENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DRY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT EXPECT
A CU FIELD TO REDEVELOP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH CENTRAL INDIANA RESIDING
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT.

TEMPS...GENERALLY UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST ACCRUAL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S...ALTHOUGH
APPEARS SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY UP A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE...THEN WARM INCREMENTALLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY. NO CHANGES
MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 621 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. A
BROAD...POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD INDIANA ON
MONDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW THE ARRIVAL OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE AFTER 12Z MONDAY AS AND 850MB TROUGH PUSHES INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS. THUS HAVE INCLUDED SOME
VCSH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THESE SYSTEMS WORK THROUGH.

AS THE LOWER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN CYCLONIC INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AND THE 850MB RIDGE REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...WILL
CARRY MVFR CIGS INTO MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AS SEEN IN TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JAS
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 192221
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
621 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A PREDOMINANTLY NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

STRATUS HAS FINALLY BROKEN UP OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MIXING HAS OCCURRED. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AREAS ALONG THE LOWER WABASH AND SOUTH OF KBMG...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WERE IN THE 50S AT 19Z.

RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS OFF TO
THE EAST. FOCUS SHIFTS TO A WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT INITIALLY AS GULF FEED IS CUTOFF...BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUBTLY INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THINKING AS WELL AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT.

TEMPS...TOOK A MOSBLEND ON LOWS TONIGHT AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE IN
PRIMARILY THE MID 40S. SHOULD SEE TEMPS DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING
THEN LEVEL OFF OVERNIGHT AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SPOTTY
PRECIP ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. UPPER WAVE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS THE SURFACE
WAVE AND COLD FRONT SWING ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER WAVE WILL
CLOSE OFF AND PINWHEEL INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK...
KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN.

STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FORCING ALOFT ARRIVE WITH THE FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COMBINED WITH A MORE ENHANCED AREA OF DIV Q DIVING
THROUGH THE REGION...SHOULD SEE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COMING ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PASSES. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS MONDAY
NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING LIKELY TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
THREAT FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. OP
GFS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OR BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
STREAMING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS THINKING ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM THE
HI-RES NMM AND ARW WHICH HINT AT LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY.

THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND A WEAKENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DRY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT EXPECT
A CU FIELD TO REDEVELOP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH CENTRAL INDIANA RESIDING
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT.

TEMPS...GENERALLY UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST ACCRUAL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S...ALTHOUGH
APPEARS SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY UP A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE...THEN WARM INCREMENTALLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY. NO CHANGES
MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 621 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. A
BROAD...POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD INDIANA ON
MONDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW THE ARRIVAL OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE AFTER 12Z MONDAY AS AND 850MB TROUGH PUSHES INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS. THUS HAVE INCLUDED SOME
VCSH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THESE SYSTEMS WORK THROUGH.

AS THE LOWER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN CYCLONIC INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AND THE 850MB RIDGE REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...WILL
CARRY MVFR CIGS INTO MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AS SEEN IN TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 192037
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
437 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A PREDOMINANTLY NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

STRATUS HAS FINALLY BROKEN UP OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MIXING HAS OCCURRED. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AREAS ALONG THE LOWER WABASH AND SOUTH OF KBMG...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WERE IN THE 50S AT 19Z.

RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS OFF TO
THE EAST. FOCUS SHIFTS TO A WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT INITIALLY AS GULF FEED IS CUTOFF...BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUBTLY INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THINKING AS WELL AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT.

TEMPS...TOOK A MOSBLEND ON LOWS TONIGHT AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE IN
PRIMARILY THE MID 40S. SHOULD SEE TEMPS DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING
THEN LEVEL OFF OVERNIGHT AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SPOTTY
PRECIP ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. UPPER WAVE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS THE SURFACE
WAVE AND COLD FRONT SWING ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER WAVE WILL
CLOSE OFF AND PINWHEEL INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK...
KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN.

STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FORCING ALOFT ARRIVE WITH THE FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COMBINED WITH A MORE ENHANCED AREA OF DIV Q DIVING
THROUGH THE REGION...SHOULD SEE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COMING ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PASSES. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS MONDAY
NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING LIKELY TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
THREAT FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. OP
GFS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OR BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
STREAMING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS THINKING ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM THE
HI-RES NMM AND ARW WHICH HINT AT LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY.

THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND A WEAKENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DRY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT EXPECT
A CU FIELD TO REDEVELOP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH CENTRAL INDIANA RESIDING
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT.

TEMPS...GENERALLY UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST ACCRUAL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S...ALTHOUGH
APPEARS SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY UP A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE...THEN WARM INCREMENTALLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY. NO CHANGES
MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 192100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND HIGH CLOUDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES. ONGOING TAFS IN GOOD SHAPE.

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 191800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE SOME OF THE TERMINALS THANKS TO A
STRATUS DECK WHICH IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA. HAVE MVFR
CONDITIONS TEMPO/D IN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. THERE ARE
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT BUT TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO JUST BROUGHT IN SOME MID LEVEL CEILINGS.
AND MENTIONED VCSH LATER MONDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND STAY 3-7 KTS THROUGH THE
DAY...THAN PICK UP OUT OF THE W BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY
GUSTING UP TO 20 KT AT KLAF AND KIND.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 192037
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
437 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A PREDOMINANTLY NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

STRATUS HAS FINALLY BROKEN UP OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MIXING HAS OCCURRED. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AREAS ALONG THE LOWER WABASH AND SOUTH OF KBMG...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WERE IN THE 50S AT 19Z.

RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS OFF TO
THE EAST. FOCUS SHIFTS TO A WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT INITIALLY AS GULF FEED IS CUTOFF...BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUBTLY INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THINKING AS WELL AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT.

TEMPS...TOOK A MOSBLEND ON LOWS TONIGHT AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE IN
PRIMARILY THE MID 40S. SHOULD SEE TEMPS DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING
THEN LEVEL OFF OVERNIGHT AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SPOTTY
PRECIP ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. UPPER WAVE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS THE SURFACE
WAVE AND COLD FRONT SWING ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER WAVE WILL
CLOSE OFF AND PINWHEEL INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK...
KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN.

STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FORCING ALOFT ARRIVE WITH THE FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COMBINED WITH A MORE ENHANCED AREA OF DIV Q DIVING
THROUGH THE REGION...SHOULD SEE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COMING ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PASSES. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS MONDAY
NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING LIKELY TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
THREAT FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. OP
GFS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OR BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
STREAMING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS THINKING ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM THE
HI-RES NMM AND ARW WHICH HINT AT LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY.

THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND A WEAKENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DRY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT EXPECT
A CU FIELD TO REDEVELOP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH CENTRAL INDIANA RESIDING
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT.

TEMPS...GENERALLY UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST ACCRUAL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S...ALTHOUGH
APPEARS SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY UP A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE...THEN WARM INCREMENTALLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY. NO CHANGES
MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 192100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND HIGH CLOUDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES. ONGOING TAFS IN GOOD SHAPE.

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 191800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE SOME OF THE TERMINALS THANKS TO A
STRATUS DECK WHICH IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA. HAVE MVFR
CONDITIONS TEMPO/D IN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. THERE ARE
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT BUT TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO JUST BROUGHT IN SOME MID LEVEL CEILINGS.
AND MENTIONED VCSH LATER MONDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND STAY 3-7 KTS THROUGH THE
DAY...THAN PICK UP OUT OF THE W BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY
GUSTING UP TO 20 KT AT KLAF AND KIND.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 191934
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A PREDOMINANTLY NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

STRATUS HAS FINALLY BROKEN UP OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MIXING HAS OCCURRED. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AREAS ALONG THE LOWER WABASH AND SOUTH OF KBMG...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WERE IN THE 50S AT 19Z.

RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS OFF TO
THE EAST. FOCUS SHIFTS TO A WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT INITIALLY AS GULF FEED IS CUTOFF...BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUBTLY INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THINKING AS WELL AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT.

TEMPS...TOOK A MOSBLEND ON LOWS TONIGHT AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE IN
PRIMARILY THE MID 40S. SHOULD SEE TEMPS DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING
THEN LEVEL OFF OVERNIGHT AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SPOTTY
PRECIP ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. UPPER WAVE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS THE SURFACE
WAVE AND COLD FRONT SWING ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER WAVE WILL
CLOSE OFF AND PINWHEEL INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK...
KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN.

STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FORCING ALOFT ARRIVE WITH THE FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COMBINED WITH A MORE ENHANCED AREA OF DIV Q DIVING
THROUGH THE REGION...SHOULD SEE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COMING ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PASSES. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS MONDAY
NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING LIKELY TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
THREAT FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. OP
GFS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OR BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
STREAMING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS THINKING ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM THE
HI-RES NMM AND ARW WHICH HINT AT LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY.

THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND A WEAKENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DRY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT EXPECT
A CU FIELD TO REDEVELOP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH CENTRAL INDIANA RESIDING
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT.

TEMPS...GENERALLY UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST ACCRUAL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S...ALTHOUGH
APPEARS SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY UP A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE...THEN WARM INCREMENTALLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY. NO CHANGES
MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE SOME OF THE TERMINALS THANKS TO A
STRATUS DECK WHICH IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA. HAVE MVFR
CONDITIONS TEMPO/D IN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. THERE ARE
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT BUT TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO JUST BROUGHT IN SOME MID LEVEL CEILINGS.
AND MENTIONED VCSH LATER MONDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND STAY 3-7 KTS THROUGH THE
DAY...THAN PICK UP OUT OF THE W BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY
GUSTING UP TO 20 KT AT KLAF AND KIND.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 191934
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A PREDOMINANTLY NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

STRATUS HAS FINALLY BROKEN UP OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MIXING HAS OCCURRED. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AREAS ALONG THE LOWER WABASH AND SOUTH OF KBMG...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WERE IN THE 50S AT 19Z.

RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS OFF TO
THE EAST. FOCUS SHIFTS TO A WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT INITIALLY AS GULF FEED IS CUTOFF...BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUBTLY INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THINKING AS WELL AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT.

TEMPS...TOOK A MOSBLEND ON LOWS TONIGHT AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE IN
PRIMARILY THE MID 40S. SHOULD SEE TEMPS DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING
THEN LEVEL OFF OVERNIGHT AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SPOTTY
PRECIP ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. UPPER WAVE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS THE SURFACE
WAVE AND COLD FRONT SWING ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER WAVE WILL
CLOSE OFF AND PINWHEEL INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK...
KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN.

STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FORCING ALOFT ARRIVE WITH THE FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COMBINED WITH A MORE ENHANCED AREA OF DIV Q DIVING
THROUGH THE REGION...SHOULD SEE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COMING ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PASSES. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS MONDAY
NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING LIKELY TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
THREAT FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. OP
GFS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OR BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
STREAMING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS THINKING ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM THE
HI-RES NMM AND ARW WHICH HINT AT LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY.

THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND A WEAKENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DRY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT EXPECT
A CU FIELD TO REDEVELOP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH CENTRAL INDIANA RESIDING
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT.

TEMPS...GENERALLY UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST ACCRUAL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S...ALTHOUGH
APPEARS SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY UP A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE...THEN WARM INCREMENTALLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY. NO CHANGES
MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE SOME OF THE TERMINALS THANKS TO A
STRATUS DECK WHICH IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA. HAVE MVFR
CONDITIONS TEMPO/D IN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. THERE ARE
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT BUT TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO JUST BROUGHT IN SOME MID LEVEL CEILINGS.
AND MENTIONED VCSH LATER MONDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND STAY 3-7 KTS THROUGH THE
DAY...THAN PICK UP OUT OF THE W BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY
GUSTING UP TO 20 KT AT KLAF AND KIND.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 191823
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
223 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 50S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS
DESPITE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE
50S MIDWEEK BUT WARMING TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

STRATUS REMAINS IN ABUNDANCE PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF THE INDY METRO AS
OF 14Z WITH SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

THOSE LOW STRATUS WERE LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING LARGE
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA FROST FREE EARLY THIS MORNING. CALLS
FROM COOP OBSERVERS INDICATE HOWEVER THAT THERE WAS FROST ACCRUAL
NORTH OF I-70 WHERE SKIES CLEARED AND TEMPS WERE ABLE TO FALL INTO
THE MID 30S.

THE FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE ON THOSE LOW STRATUS AND
IMPACTS THEIR PRESENCE WILL HAVE ON HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS HAD BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH BUT RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST
THAT SOUTHWARD SHIFT HAS LARGELY STOPPED AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SWINGS AROUND TO S/SW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PASSES. CURRENT
RAP DATA SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS MAY HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY IN MIXING
OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE
REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. HAVE BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER
OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON POPS AS MODELS ARE SIMILAR THAT
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z GFS IS NOW TRENDING BETTER WITH THE STEADIER 12Z
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE GFS IS ALSO NOW NOT AS MOIST AND THUS
THE 00Z GFS MOS POPS HAVE BEEN TAMED DOWN FROM EARLY LIKELY
CATEGORY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPER...ALBEIT HO HUM MOISTURE
RIBBON EXPECTED TO BE A FAIR DISTANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THUS...BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS TO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY BROUGHT THEM SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. IN
FACT...CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY
12Z MONDAY. LEFT SOME LINGER LOW EVENING POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE ANOTHER WAVE SHOULD DROP DOWN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTED TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND...MOS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S LOOK GOOD BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...BLEND OF SLIGHTLY WARMER 00Z GFS AND COOLER 00Z NAM LOOK
GOOD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MID 60S HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE...THEN WARM INCREMENTALLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY. NO CHANGES
MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE SOME OF THE TERMINALS THANKS TO A
STRATUS DECK WHICH IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA. HAVE MFVR
CONDITIONS TEMPO/D IN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. THERE ARE
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT BUT TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO JUST BROUGHT IN SOME MID LEVEL CEILINGS.
AND MENTIONED VCSH LATER MONDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND STAY 3-7 KTS THROUGH THE
DAY...THAN PICK UP OUT OF THE W BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY
GUSTING UP TO 20 KT AT KLAF AND KIND.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK/RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 191823
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
223 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 50S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS
DESPITE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE
50S MIDWEEK BUT WARMING TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

STRATUS REMAINS IN ABUNDANCE PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF THE INDY METRO AS
OF 14Z WITH SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

THOSE LOW STRATUS WERE LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING LARGE
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA FROST FREE EARLY THIS MORNING. CALLS
FROM COOP OBSERVERS INDICATE HOWEVER THAT THERE WAS FROST ACCRUAL
NORTH OF I-70 WHERE SKIES CLEARED AND TEMPS WERE ABLE TO FALL INTO
THE MID 30S.

THE FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE ON THOSE LOW STRATUS AND
IMPACTS THEIR PRESENCE WILL HAVE ON HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS HAD BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH BUT RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST
THAT SOUTHWARD SHIFT HAS LARGELY STOPPED AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SWINGS AROUND TO S/SW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PASSES. CURRENT
RAP DATA SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS MAY HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY IN MIXING
OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE
REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. HAVE BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER
OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON POPS AS MODELS ARE SIMILAR THAT
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z GFS IS NOW TRENDING BETTER WITH THE STEADIER 12Z
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE GFS IS ALSO NOW NOT AS MOIST AND THUS
THE 00Z GFS MOS POPS HAVE BEEN TAMED DOWN FROM EARLY LIKELY
CATEGORY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPER...ALBEIT HO HUM MOISTURE
RIBBON EXPECTED TO BE A FAIR DISTANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THUS...BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS TO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY BROUGHT THEM SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. IN
FACT...CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY
12Z MONDAY. LEFT SOME LINGER LOW EVENING POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE ANOTHER WAVE SHOULD DROP DOWN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTED TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND...MOS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S LOOK GOOD BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...BLEND OF SLIGHTLY WARMER 00Z GFS AND COOLER 00Z NAM LOOK
GOOD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MID 60S HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE...THEN WARM INCREMENTALLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY. NO CHANGES
MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE SOME OF THE TERMINALS THANKS TO A
STRATUS DECK WHICH IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA. HAVE MFVR
CONDITIONS TEMPO/D IN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. THERE ARE
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT BUT TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO JUST BROUGHT IN SOME MID LEVEL CEILINGS.
AND MENTIONED VCSH LATER MONDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND STAY 3-7 KTS THROUGH THE
DAY...THAN PICK UP OUT OF THE W BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY
GUSTING UP TO 20 KT AT KLAF AND KIND.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK/RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 191750
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
150 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 50S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS
DESPITE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE
50S MIDWEEK BUT WARMING TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

STRATUS REMAINS IN ABUNDANCE PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF THE INDY METRO AS
OF 14Z WITH SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

THOSE LOW STRATUS WERE LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING LARGE
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA FROST FREE EARLY THIS MORNING. CALLS
FROM COOP OBSERVERS INDICATE HOWEVER THAT THERE WAS FROST ACCRUAL
NORTH OF I-70 WHERE SKIES CLEARED AND TEMPS WERE ABLE TO FALL INTO
THE MID 30S.

THE FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE ON THOSE LOW STRATUS AND
IMPACTS THEIR PRESENCE WILL HAVE ON HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS HAD BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH BUT RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST
THAT SOUTHWARD SHIFT HAS LARGELY STOPPED AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SWINGS AROUND TO S/SW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PASSES. CURRENT
RAP DATA SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS MAY HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY IN MIXING
OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE
REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. HAVE BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER
OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON POPS AS MODELS ARE SIMILAR THAT
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z GFS IS NOW TRENDING BETTER WITH THE STEADIER 12Z
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE GFS IS ALSO NOW NOT AS MOIST AND THUS
THE 00Z GFS MOS POPS HAVE BEEN TAMED DOWN FROM EARLY LIKELY
CATEGORY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPER...ALBEIT HO HUM MOISTURE
RIBBON EXPECTED TO BE A FAIR DISTANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THUS...BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS TO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY BROUGHT THEM SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. IN
FACT...CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY
12Z MONDAY. LEFT SOME LINGER LOW EVENING POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE ANOTHER WAVE SHOULD DROP DOWN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTED TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND...MOS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S LOOK GOOD BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...BLEND OF SLIGHTLY WARMER 00Z GFS AND COOLER 00Z NAM LOOK
GOOD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MID 60S HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE SOME OF THE TERMINALS THANKS TO A
STRATUS DECK WHICH IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA. HAVE MFVR
CONDITIONS TEMPO/D IN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. THERE ARE
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT BUT TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO JUST BROUGHT IN SOME MID LEVEL CEILINGS.
AND MENTIONED VCSH LATER MONDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND STAY 3-7 KTS THROUGH THE
DAY...THAN PICK UP OUT OF THE W BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY
GUSTING UP TO 20 KT AT KLAF AND KIND.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK/RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 191750
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
150 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 50S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS
DESPITE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE
50S MIDWEEK BUT WARMING TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

STRATUS REMAINS IN ABUNDANCE PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF THE INDY METRO AS
OF 14Z WITH SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

THOSE LOW STRATUS WERE LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING LARGE
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA FROST FREE EARLY THIS MORNING. CALLS
FROM COOP OBSERVERS INDICATE HOWEVER THAT THERE WAS FROST ACCRUAL
NORTH OF I-70 WHERE SKIES CLEARED AND TEMPS WERE ABLE TO FALL INTO
THE MID 30S.

THE FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE ON THOSE LOW STRATUS AND
IMPACTS THEIR PRESENCE WILL HAVE ON HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS HAD BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH BUT RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST
THAT SOUTHWARD SHIFT HAS LARGELY STOPPED AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SWINGS AROUND TO S/SW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PASSES. CURRENT
RAP DATA SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS MAY HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY IN MIXING
OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE
REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. HAVE BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER
OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON POPS AS MODELS ARE SIMILAR THAT
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z GFS IS NOW TRENDING BETTER WITH THE STEADIER 12Z
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE GFS IS ALSO NOW NOT AS MOIST AND THUS
THE 00Z GFS MOS POPS HAVE BEEN TAMED DOWN FROM EARLY LIKELY
CATEGORY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPER...ALBEIT HO HUM MOISTURE
RIBBON EXPECTED TO BE A FAIR DISTANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THUS...BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS TO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY BROUGHT THEM SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. IN
FACT...CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY
12Z MONDAY. LEFT SOME LINGER LOW EVENING POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE ANOTHER WAVE SHOULD DROP DOWN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTED TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND...MOS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S LOOK GOOD BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...BLEND OF SLIGHTLY WARMER 00Z GFS AND COOLER 00Z NAM LOOK
GOOD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MID 60S HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE SOME OF THE TERMINALS THANKS TO A
STRATUS DECK WHICH IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA. HAVE MFVR
CONDITIONS TEMPO/D IN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. THERE ARE
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT BUT TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO JUST BROUGHT IN SOME MID LEVEL CEILINGS.
AND MENTIONED VCSH LATER MONDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND STAY 3-7 KTS THROUGH THE
DAY...THAN PICK UP OUT OF THE W BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY
GUSTING UP TO 20 KT AT KLAF AND KIND.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK/RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 191421
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1021 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 50S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS
DESPITE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE
50S MIDWEEK BUT WARMING TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

STRATUS REMAINS IN ABUNDANCE PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF THE INDY METRO AS
OF 14Z WITH SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

THOSE LOW STRATUS WERE LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING LARGE
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA FROST FREE EARLY THIS MORNING. CALLS
FROM COOP OBSERVERS INDICATE HOWEVER THAT THERE WAS FROST ACCRUAL
NORTH OF I-70 WHERE SKIES CLEARED AND TEMPS WERE ABLE TO FALL INTO
THE MID 30S.

THE FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE ON THOSE LOW STRATUS AND
IMPACTS THEIR PRESENCE WILL HAVE ON HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS HAD BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH BUT RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST
THAT SOUTHWARD SHIFT HAS LARGELY STOPPED AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SWINGS AROUND TO S/SW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PASSES. CURRENT
RAP DATA SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS MAY HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY IN MIXING
OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE
REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. HAVE BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER
OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON POPS AS MODELS ARE SIMILAR THAT
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z GFS IS NOW TRENDING BETTER WITH THE STEADIER 12Z
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE GFS IS ALSO NOW NOT AS MOIST AND THUS
THE 00Z GFS MOS POPS HAVE BEEN TAMED DOWN FROM EARLY LIKELY
CATEGORY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPER...ALBEIT HO HUM MOISTURE
RIBBON EXPECTED TO BE A FAIR DISTANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THUS...BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS TO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY BROUGHT THEM SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. IN
FACT...CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY
12Z MONDAY. LEFT SOME LINGER LOW EVENING POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE ANOTHER WAVE SHOULD DROP DOWN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTED TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND...MOS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S LOOK GOOD BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...BLEND OF SLIGHTLY WARMER 00Z GFS AND COOLER 00Z NAM LOOK
GOOD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MID 60S HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

1420Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES OTHER THAN TO HOLD ONTO MFVR CEILINGS AT
KBMG A FEW HOURS LONGER...UNTIL 15/16Z AS A PERSISTENT CU DECK
REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE AROUND FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AT KBMG AND
THROUGH AROUND 14Z AT KIND BEFORE MOVING SOUTH AND SCATTERING OUT.
AT KLAF LOWER VISIBILITIES DEVELOPED AFTER THE MVFR CEILINGS MOVED
OUT AND EXPECT VISIBILITIES WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND VFR OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THIS WILL MIX OUT AND UP AFTER SUNRISE.
ONCE CONDITIONS IMPROVE A BIT LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD BE VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER. THERE ARE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TONIGHT BUT TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO JUST
BROUGHT IN SOME MID LEVEL CEILINGS. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND STAY 3-7 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK/RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...SMF/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 191421
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1021 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 50S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS
DESPITE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE
50S MIDWEEK BUT WARMING TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

STRATUS REMAINS IN ABUNDANCE PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF THE INDY METRO AS
OF 14Z WITH SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

THOSE LOW STRATUS WERE LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING LARGE
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA FROST FREE EARLY THIS MORNING. CALLS
FROM COOP OBSERVERS INDICATE HOWEVER THAT THERE WAS FROST ACCRUAL
NORTH OF I-70 WHERE SKIES CLEARED AND TEMPS WERE ABLE TO FALL INTO
THE MID 30S.

THE FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE ON THOSE LOW STRATUS AND
IMPACTS THEIR PRESENCE WILL HAVE ON HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS HAD BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH BUT RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST
THAT SOUTHWARD SHIFT HAS LARGELY STOPPED AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SWINGS AROUND TO S/SW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PASSES. CURRENT
RAP DATA SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS MAY HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY IN MIXING
OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE
REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. HAVE BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER
OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON POPS AS MODELS ARE SIMILAR THAT
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z GFS IS NOW TRENDING BETTER WITH THE STEADIER 12Z
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE GFS IS ALSO NOW NOT AS MOIST AND THUS
THE 00Z GFS MOS POPS HAVE BEEN TAMED DOWN FROM EARLY LIKELY
CATEGORY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPER...ALBEIT HO HUM MOISTURE
RIBBON EXPECTED TO BE A FAIR DISTANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THUS...BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS TO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY BROUGHT THEM SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. IN
FACT...CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY
12Z MONDAY. LEFT SOME LINGER LOW EVENING POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE ANOTHER WAVE SHOULD DROP DOWN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTED TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND...MOS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S LOOK GOOD BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...BLEND OF SLIGHTLY WARMER 00Z GFS AND COOLER 00Z NAM LOOK
GOOD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MID 60S HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

1420Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES OTHER THAN TO HOLD ONTO MFVR CEILINGS AT
KBMG A FEW HOURS LONGER...UNTIL 15/16Z AS A PERSISTENT CU DECK
REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE AROUND FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AT KBMG AND
THROUGH AROUND 14Z AT KIND BEFORE MOVING SOUTH AND SCATTERING OUT.
AT KLAF LOWER VISIBILITIES DEVELOPED AFTER THE MVFR CEILINGS MOVED
OUT AND EXPECT VISIBILITIES WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND VFR OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THIS WILL MIX OUT AND UP AFTER SUNRISE.
ONCE CONDITIONS IMPROVE A BIT LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD BE VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER. THERE ARE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TONIGHT BUT TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO JUST
BROUGHT IN SOME MID LEVEL CEILINGS. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND STAY 3-7 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK/RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...SMF/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 191413
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1013 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 50S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS
DESPITE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE
50S MIDWEEK BUT WARMING TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

STRATUS REMAINS IN ABUNDANCE PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF THE INDY METRO AS
OF 14Z WITH SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

THOSE LOW STRATUS WERE LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING LARGE
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA FROST FREE EARLY THIS MORNING. CALLS
FROM COOP OBSERVERS INDICATE HOWEVER THAT THERE WAS FROST ACCRUAL
NORTH OF I-70 WHERE SKIES CLEARED AND TEMPS WERE ABLE TO FALL INTO
THE MID 30S.

THE FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE ON THOSE LOW STRATUS AND
IMPACTS THEIR PRESENCE WILL HAVE ON HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS HAD BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH BUT RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST
THAT SOUTHWARD SHIFT HAS LARGELY STOPPED AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SWINGS AROUND TO S/SW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PASSES. CURRENT
RAP DATA SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS MAY HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY IN MIXING
OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE
REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. HAVE BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER
OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON POPS AS MODELS ARE SIMILAR THAT
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z GFS IS NOW TRENDING BETTER WITH THE STEADIER 12Z
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE GFS IS ALSO NOW NOT AS MOIST AND THUS
THE 00Z GFS MOS POPS HAVE BEEN TAMED DOWN FROM EARLY LIKELY
CATEGORY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPER...ALBEIT HO HUM MOISTURE
RIBBON EXPECTED TO BE A FAIR DISTANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THUS...BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS TO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY BROUGHT THEM SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. IN
FACT...CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY
12Z MONDAY. LEFT SOME LINGER LOW EVENING POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE ANOTHER WAVE SHOULD DROP DOWN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTED TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND...MOS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S LOOK GOOD BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...BLEND OF SLIGHTLY WARMER 00Z GFS AND COOLER 00Z NAM LOOK
GOOD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MID 60S HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE AROUND FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AT KBMG AND
THROUGH AROUND 14Z AT KIND BEFORE MOVING SOUTH AND SCATTERING OUT.
AT KLAF LOWER VISIBILITIES DEVELOPED AFTER THE MVFR CEILINGS MOVED
OUT AND EXPECT VISIBILITIES WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND VFR OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THIS WILL MIX OUT AND UP AFTER SUNRISE.
ONCE CONDITIONS IMPROVE A BIT LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD BE VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER. THERE ARE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TONIGHT BUT TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO JUST
BROUGHT IN SOME MID LEVEL CEILINGS. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND STAY 3-7 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK/RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 191413
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1013 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 50S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS
DESPITE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE
50S MIDWEEK BUT WARMING TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

STRATUS REMAINS IN ABUNDANCE PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF THE INDY METRO AS
OF 14Z WITH SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

THOSE LOW STRATUS WERE LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING LARGE
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA FROST FREE EARLY THIS MORNING. CALLS
FROM COOP OBSERVERS INDICATE HOWEVER THAT THERE WAS FROST ACCRUAL
NORTH OF I-70 WHERE SKIES CLEARED AND TEMPS WERE ABLE TO FALL INTO
THE MID 30S.

THE FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE ON THOSE LOW STRATUS AND
IMPACTS THEIR PRESENCE WILL HAVE ON HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS HAD BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH BUT RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST
THAT SOUTHWARD SHIFT HAS LARGELY STOPPED AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SWINGS AROUND TO S/SW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PASSES. CURRENT
RAP DATA SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS MAY HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY IN MIXING
OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE
REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. HAVE BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER
OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON POPS AS MODELS ARE SIMILAR THAT
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z GFS IS NOW TRENDING BETTER WITH THE STEADIER 12Z
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE GFS IS ALSO NOW NOT AS MOIST AND THUS
THE 00Z GFS MOS POPS HAVE BEEN TAMED DOWN FROM EARLY LIKELY
CATEGORY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPER...ALBEIT HO HUM MOISTURE
RIBBON EXPECTED TO BE A FAIR DISTANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THUS...BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS TO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY BROUGHT THEM SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. IN
FACT...CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY
12Z MONDAY. LEFT SOME LINGER LOW EVENING POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE ANOTHER WAVE SHOULD DROP DOWN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTED TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND...MOS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S LOOK GOOD BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...BLEND OF SLIGHTLY WARMER 00Z GFS AND COOLER 00Z NAM LOOK
GOOD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MID 60S HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE AROUND FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AT KBMG AND
THROUGH AROUND 14Z AT KIND BEFORE MOVING SOUTH AND SCATTERING OUT.
AT KLAF LOWER VISIBILITIES DEVELOPED AFTER THE MVFR CEILINGS MOVED
OUT AND EXPECT VISIBILITIES WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND VFR OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THIS WILL MIX OUT AND UP AFTER SUNRISE.
ONCE CONDITIONS IMPROVE A BIT LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD BE VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER. THERE ARE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TONIGHT BUT TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO JUST
BROUGHT IN SOME MID LEVEL CEILINGS. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND STAY 3-7 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK/RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 191050
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
650 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN COLD AND
DRY WEATHER THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE NEAR
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 50S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S MIDWEEK BUT WARMING TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 621 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WITH CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES AND
MAKING PROGRESS SOUTHWARD...WILL LEAVE THE FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
OUR COUNTIES GO TIL 9 AM. TEMPERATURES IN THE CLEAR AIR HAVE QUICKLY
DROPPED TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S UNDER A CALM WIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

NEAR TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON THE MORNING FROST THIS MORNING AS THE
STRATOCU DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS
OF EROSION ACROSS PARTS OF OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. AS
SUCH...SUB-40 DEGREE TEMPERATURES WERE CONFINED TO NEAR AND NORTH OF
A FORT WAYNE TO KANKAKEE LINE AT 230 AM EDT. THIS HAS LEND TO
LOWERED CONFIDENCE WITH THE FROST ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS AWIPS DISTANCE SPEED TOOL WOULD HAVE THE
CLEARING LINE THERE RIGHT AROUND 12Z...RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE.
STILL...WOULD HATE TO PULL THE ADVISORY ONLY TO HAVE BREAKS AND OR
CLEARING RESULT IN A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SO...WILL LEAVE THE
ADVISORY GOING FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES THROUGH 9 AM AS IS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY AFTER THE STRATOCU MOVES OFF. STILL...EVEN WITH
SUNSHINE AND MODEST SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS...DO NOT THINK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE AGGRESSIVE 00Z GFS NUMBERS
WITH SHALLOW INVERSION PREVENTING MUCH OF ANY MIXING DOWN. PREFER
TRENDING TOWARD THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON POPS AS MODELS ARE SIMILAR THAT
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z GFS IS NOW TRENDING BETTER WITH THE STEADIER 12Z
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE GFS IS ALSO NOW NOT AS MOIST AND THUS
THE 00Z GFS MOS POPS HAVE BEEN TAMED DOWN FROM EARLY LIKELY
CATEGORY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPER...ALBEIT HO HUM MOISTURE
RIBBON EXPECTED TO BE A FAIR DISTANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THUS...BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS TO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY BROUGHT THEM SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. IN
FACT...CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY
12Z MONDAY. LEFT SOME LINGER LOW EVENING POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE ANOTHER WAVE SHOULD DROP DOWN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTED TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND...MOS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S LOOK GOOD BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...BLEND OF SLIGHTLY WARMER 00Z GFS AND COOLER 00Z NAM LOOK
GOOD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MID 60S HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE AROUND FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AT KBMG AND
THROUGH AROUND 14Z AT KIND BEFORE MOVING SOUTH AND SCATTERING OUT.
AT KLAF LOWER VISIBILITIES DEVELOPED AFTER THE MVFR CEILINGS MOVED
OUT AND EXPECT VISIBILITIES WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND VFR OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THIS WILL MIX OUT AND UP AFTER SUNRISE.
ONCE CONDITIONS IMPROVE A BIT LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD BE VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER. THERE ARE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TONIGHT BUT TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO JUST
BROUGHT IN SOME MID LEVEL CEILINGS. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND STAY 3-7 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 191050
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
650 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN COLD AND
DRY WEATHER THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE NEAR
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 50S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S MIDWEEK BUT WARMING TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 621 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WITH CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES AND
MAKING PROGRESS SOUTHWARD...WILL LEAVE THE FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
OUR COUNTIES GO TIL 9 AM. TEMPERATURES IN THE CLEAR AIR HAVE QUICKLY
DROPPED TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S UNDER A CALM WIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

NEAR TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON THE MORNING FROST THIS MORNING AS THE
STRATOCU DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS
OF EROSION ACROSS PARTS OF OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. AS
SUCH...SUB-40 DEGREE TEMPERATURES WERE CONFINED TO NEAR AND NORTH OF
A FORT WAYNE TO KANKAKEE LINE AT 230 AM EDT. THIS HAS LEND TO
LOWERED CONFIDENCE WITH THE FROST ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS AWIPS DISTANCE SPEED TOOL WOULD HAVE THE
CLEARING LINE THERE RIGHT AROUND 12Z...RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE.
STILL...WOULD HATE TO PULL THE ADVISORY ONLY TO HAVE BREAKS AND OR
CLEARING RESULT IN A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SO...WILL LEAVE THE
ADVISORY GOING FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES THROUGH 9 AM AS IS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY AFTER THE STRATOCU MOVES OFF. STILL...EVEN WITH
SUNSHINE AND MODEST SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS...DO NOT THINK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE AGGRESSIVE 00Z GFS NUMBERS
WITH SHALLOW INVERSION PREVENTING MUCH OF ANY MIXING DOWN. PREFER
TRENDING TOWARD THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON POPS AS MODELS ARE SIMILAR THAT
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z GFS IS NOW TRENDING BETTER WITH THE STEADIER 12Z
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE GFS IS ALSO NOW NOT AS MOIST AND THUS
THE 00Z GFS MOS POPS HAVE BEEN TAMED DOWN FROM EARLY LIKELY
CATEGORY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPER...ALBEIT HO HUM MOISTURE
RIBBON EXPECTED TO BE A FAIR DISTANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THUS...BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS TO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY BROUGHT THEM SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. IN
FACT...CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY
12Z MONDAY. LEFT SOME LINGER LOW EVENING POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE ANOTHER WAVE SHOULD DROP DOWN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTED TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND...MOS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S LOOK GOOD BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...BLEND OF SLIGHTLY WARMER 00Z GFS AND COOLER 00Z NAM LOOK
GOOD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MID 60S HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE AROUND FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AT KBMG AND
THROUGH AROUND 14Z AT KIND BEFORE MOVING SOUTH AND SCATTERING OUT.
AT KLAF LOWER VISIBILITIES DEVELOPED AFTER THE MVFR CEILINGS MOVED
OUT AND EXPECT VISIBILITIES WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND VFR OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THIS WILL MIX OUT AND UP AFTER SUNRISE.
ONCE CONDITIONS IMPROVE A BIT LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD BE VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER. THERE ARE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TONIGHT BUT TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO JUST
BROUGHT IN SOME MID LEVEL CEILINGS. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND STAY 3-7 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 191050
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
650 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN COLD AND
DRY WEATHER THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE NEAR
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 50S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S MIDWEEK BUT WARMING TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 621 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WITH CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES AND
MAKING PROGRESS SOUTHWARD...WILL LEAVE THE FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
OUR COUNTIES GO TIL 9 AM. TEMPERATURES IN THE CLEAR AIR HAVE QUICKLY
DROPPED TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S UNDER A CALM WIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

NEAR TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON THE MORNING FROST THIS MORNING AS THE
STRATOCU DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS
OF EROSION ACROSS PARTS OF OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. AS
SUCH...SUB-40 DEGREE TEMPERATURES WERE CONFINED TO NEAR AND NORTH OF
A FORT WAYNE TO KANKAKEE LINE AT 230 AM EDT. THIS HAS LEND TO
LOWERED CONFIDENCE WITH THE FROST ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS AWIPS DISTANCE SPEED TOOL WOULD HAVE THE
CLEARING LINE THERE RIGHT AROUND 12Z...RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE.
STILL...WOULD HATE TO PULL THE ADVISORY ONLY TO HAVE BREAKS AND OR
CLEARING RESULT IN A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SO...WILL LEAVE THE
ADVISORY GOING FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES THROUGH 9 AM AS IS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY AFTER THE STRATOCU MOVES OFF. STILL...EVEN WITH
SUNSHINE AND MODEST SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS...DO NOT THINK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE AGGRESSIVE 00Z GFS NUMBERS
WITH SHALLOW INVERSION PREVENTING MUCH OF ANY MIXING DOWN. PREFER
TRENDING TOWARD THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON POPS AS MODELS ARE SIMILAR THAT
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z GFS IS NOW TRENDING BETTER WITH THE STEADIER 12Z
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE GFS IS ALSO NOW NOT AS MOIST AND THUS
THE 00Z GFS MOS POPS HAVE BEEN TAMED DOWN FROM EARLY LIKELY
CATEGORY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPER...ALBEIT HO HUM MOISTURE
RIBBON EXPECTED TO BE A FAIR DISTANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THUS...BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS TO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY BROUGHT THEM SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. IN
FACT...CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY
12Z MONDAY. LEFT SOME LINGER LOW EVENING POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE ANOTHER WAVE SHOULD DROP DOWN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTED TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND...MOS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S LOOK GOOD BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...BLEND OF SLIGHTLY WARMER 00Z GFS AND COOLER 00Z NAM LOOK
GOOD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MID 60S HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE AROUND FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AT KBMG AND
THROUGH AROUND 14Z AT KIND BEFORE MOVING SOUTH AND SCATTERING OUT.
AT KLAF LOWER VISIBILITIES DEVELOPED AFTER THE MVFR CEILINGS MOVED
OUT AND EXPECT VISIBILITIES WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND VFR OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THIS WILL MIX OUT AND UP AFTER SUNRISE.
ONCE CONDITIONS IMPROVE A BIT LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD BE VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER. THERE ARE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TONIGHT BUT TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO JUST
BROUGHT IN SOME MID LEVEL CEILINGS. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND STAY 3-7 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 191050
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
650 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN COLD AND
DRY WEATHER THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE NEAR
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 50S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S MIDWEEK BUT WARMING TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 621 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WITH CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES AND
MAKING PROGRESS SOUTHWARD...WILL LEAVE THE FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
OUR COUNTIES GO TIL 9 AM. TEMPERATURES IN THE CLEAR AIR HAVE QUICKLY
DROPPED TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S UNDER A CALM WIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

NEAR TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON THE MORNING FROST THIS MORNING AS THE
STRATOCU DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS
OF EROSION ACROSS PARTS OF OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. AS
SUCH...SUB-40 DEGREE TEMPERATURES WERE CONFINED TO NEAR AND NORTH OF
A FORT WAYNE TO KANKAKEE LINE AT 230 AM EDT. THIS HAS LEND TO
LOWERED CONFIDENCE WITH THE FROST ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS AWIPS DISTANCE SPEED TOOL WOULD HAVE THE
CLEARING LINE THERE RIGHT AROUND 12Z...RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE.
STILL...WOULD HATE TO PULL THE ADVISORY ONLY TO HAVE BREAKS AND OR
CLEARING RESULT IN A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SO...WILL LEAVE THE
ADVISORY GOING FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES THROUGH 9 AM AS IS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY AFTER THE STRATOCU MOVES OFF. STILL...EVEN WITH
SUNSHINE AND MODEST SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS...DO NOT THINK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE AGGRESSIVE 00Z GFS NUMBERS
WITH SHALLOW INVERSION PREVENTING MUCH OF ANY MIXING DOWN. PREFER
TRENDING TOWARD THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON POPS AS MODELS ARE SIMILAR THAT
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z GFS IS NOW TRENDING BETTER WITH THE STEADIER 12Z
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE GFS IS ALSO NOW NOT AS MOIST AND THUS
THE 00Z GFS MOS POPS HAVE BEEN TAMED DOWN FROM EARLY LIKELY
CATEGORY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPER...ALBEIT HO HUM MOISTURE
RIBBON EXPECTED TO BE A FAIR DISTANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THUS...BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS TO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY BROUGHT THEM SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. IN
FACT...CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY
12Z MONDAY. LEFT SOME LINGER LOW EVENING POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE ANOTHER WAVE SHOULD DROP DOWN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTED TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND...MOS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S LOOK GOOD BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...BLEND OF SLIGHTLY WARMER 00Z GFS AND COOLER 00Z NAM LOOK
GOOD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MID 60S HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE AROUND FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AT KBMG AND
THROUGH AROUND 14Z AT KIND BEFORE MOVING SOUTH AND SCATTERING OUT.
AT KLAF LOWER VISIBILITIES DEVELOPED AFTER THE MVFR CEILINGS MOVED
OUT AND EXPECT VISIBILITIES WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND VFR OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THIS WILL MIX OUT AND UP AFTER SUNRISE.
ONCE CONDITIONS IMPROVE A BIT LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD BE VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER. THERE ARE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TONIGHT BUT TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO JUST
BROUGHT IN SOME MID LEVEL CEILINGS. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND STAY 3-7 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 191021
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
621 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN COLD AND
DRY WEATHER THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE NEAR
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 50S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S MIDWEEK BUT WARMING TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 621 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WITH CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES AND
MAKING PROGRESS SOUTHWARD...WILL LEAVE THE FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
OUR COUNTIES GO TIL 9 AM. TEMPERATURES IN THE CLEAR AIR HAVE QUICKLY
DROPPED TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S UNDER A CALM WIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

NEAR TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON THE MORNING FROST THIS MORNING AS THE
STRATOCU DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS
OF EROSION ACROSS PARTS OF OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. AS
SUCH...SUB-40 DEGREE TEMPERATURES WERE CONFINED TO NEAR AND NORTH OF
A FORT WAYNE TO KANKAKEE LINE AT 230 AM EDT. THIS HAS LEND TO
LOWERED CONFIDENCE WITH THE FROST ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS AWIPS DISTANCE SPEED TOOL WOULD HAVE THE
CLEARING LINE THERE RIGHT AROUND 12Z...RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE.
STILL...WOULD HATE TO PULL THE ADVISORY ONLY TO HAVE BREAKS AND OR
CLEARING RESULT IN A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SO...WILL LEAVE THE
ADVISORY GOING FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES THROUGH 9 AM AS IS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY AFTER THE STRATOCU MOVES OFF. STILL...EVEN WITH
SUNSHINE AND MODEST SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS...DO NOT THINK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE AGGRESSIVE 00Z GFS NUMBERS
WITH SHALLOW INVERSION PREVENTING MUCH OF ANY MIXING DOWN. PREFER
TRENDING TOWARD THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON POPS AS MODELS ARE SIMILAR THAT
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z GFS IS NOW TRENDING BETTER WITH THE STEADIER 12Z
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE GFS IS ALSO NOW NOT AS MOIST AND THUS
THE 00Z GFS MOS POPS HAVE BEEN TAMED DOWN FROM EARLY LIKELY
CATEGORY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPER...ALBEIT HO HUM MOISTURE
RIBBON EXPECTED TO BE A FAIR DISTANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THUS...BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS TO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY BROUGHT THEM SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. IN
FACT...CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY
12Z MONDAY. LEFT SOME LINGER LOW EVENING POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE ANOTHER WAVE SHOULD DROP DOWN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTED TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND...MOS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S LOOK GOOD BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...BLEND OF SLIGHTLY WARMER 00Z GFS AND COOLER 00Z NAM LOOK
GOOD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MID 60S HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190900Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS ARE HANGING AROUND A
LITTLE LONGER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT AT ALL SITES BUT KHUF. CLEARING
IS MAKING ITS WAY TO KLAF AND KBMG AND LOOKS LIKE IT COULD REACH
BOTH SITES WITHIN THE HOUR BUT KIND SHOULD STAY MVFR THROUGH 10Z AND
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT LONGER THAN THAT BUT HAVE GONE WITH MORE
OPTIMISTIC TIMING. AFTER THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS
AND THUS VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 191021
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
621 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN COLD AND
DRY WEATHER THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE NEAR
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 50S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S MIDWEEK BUT WARMING TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 621 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WITH CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES AND
MAKING PROGRESS SOUTHWARD...WILL LEAVE THE FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
OUR COUNTIES GO TIL 9 AM. TEMPERATURES IN THE CLEAR AIR HAVE QUICKLY
DROPPED TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S UNDER A CALM WIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

NEAR TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON THE MORNING FROST THIS MORNING AS THE
STRATOCU DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS
OF EROSION ACROSS PARTS OF OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. AS
SUCH...SUB-40 DEGREE TEMPERATURES WERE CONFINED TO NEAR AND NORTH OF
A FORT WAYNE TO KANKAKEE LINE AT 230 AM EDT. THIS HAS LEND TO
LOWERED CONFIDENCE WITH THE FROST ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS AWIPS DISTANCE SPEED TOOL WOULD HAVE THE
CLEARING LINE THERE RIGHT AROUND 12Z...RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE.
STILL...WOULD HATE TO PULL THE ADVISORY ONLY TO HAVE BREAKS AND OR
CLEARING RESULT IN A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SO...WILL LEAVE THE
ADVISORY GOING FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES THROUGH 9 AM AS IS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY AFTER THE STRATOCU MOVES OFF. STILL...EVEN WITH
SUNSHINE AND MODEST SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS...DO NOT THINK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE AGGRESSIVE 00Z GFS NUMBERS
WITH SHALLOW INVERSION PREVENTING MUCH OF ANY MIXING DOWN. PREFER
TRENDING TOWARD THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON POPS AS MODELS ARE SIMILAR THAT
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z GFS IS NOW TRENDING BETTER WITH THE STEADIER 12Z
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE GFS IS ALSO NOW NOT AS MOIST AND THUS
THE 00Z GFS MOS POPS HAVE BEEN TAMED DOWN FROM EARLY LIKELY
CATEGORY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPER...ALBEIT HO HUM MOISTURE
RIBBON EXPECTED TO BE A FAIR DISTANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THUS...BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS TO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY BROUGHT THEM SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. IN
FACT...CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY
12Z MONDAY. LEFT SOME LINGER LOW EVENING POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE ANOTHER WAVE SHOULD DROP DOWN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTED TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND...MOS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S LOOK GOOD BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...BLEND OF SLIGHTLY WARMER 00Z GFS AND COOLER 00Z NAM LOOK
GOOD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MID 60S HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190900Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS ARE HANGING AROUND A
LITTLE LONGER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT AT ALL SITES BUT KHUF. CLEARING
IS MAKING ITS WAY TO KLAF AND KBMG AND LOOKS LIKE IT COULD REACH
BOTH SITES WITHIN THE HOUR BUT KIND SHOULD STAY MVFR THROUGH 10Z AND
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT LONGER THAN THAT BUT HAVE GONE WITH MORE
OPTIMISTIC TIMING. AFTER THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS
AND THUS VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 190817
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
417 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN COLD AND
DRY WEATHER THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE NEAR
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 50S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S MIDWEEK BUT WARMING TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NEAR TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON THE MORNING FROST THIS MORNING AS THE
STRATOCU DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS
OF EROSION ACROSS PARTS OF OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. AS
SUCH...SUB-40 DEGREE TEMPERATURES WERE CONFINED TO NEAR AND NORTH OF
A FORT WAYNE TO KANKAKEE LINE AT 230 AM EDT. THIS HAS LEND TO
LOWERED CONFIDENCE WITH THE FROST ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS AWIPS DISTANCE SPEED TOOL WOULD HAVE THE
CLEARING LINE THERE RIGHT AROUND 12Z...RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE.
STILL...WOULD HATE TO PULL THE ADVISORY ONLY TO HAVE BREAKS AND OR
CLEARING RESULT IN A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SO...WILL LEAVE THE
ADVISORY GOING FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES THROUGH 9 AM AS IS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY AFTER THE STRATOCU MOVES OFF. STILL...EVEN WITH
SUNSHINE AND MODEST SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS...DO NOT THINK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE AGGRESSIVE 00Z GFS NUMBERS
WITH SHALLOW INVERSION PREVENTING MUCH OF ANY MIXING DOWN. PREFER
TRENDING TOWARD THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON POPS AS MODELS ARE SIMILAR THAT
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z GFS IS NOW TRENDING BETTER WITH THE STEADIER 12Z
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE GFS IS ALSO NOW NOT AS MOIST AND THUS
THE 00Z GFS MOS POPS HAVE BEEN TAMED DOWN FROM EARLY LIKELY
CATEGORY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPER...ALBEIT HO HUM MOISTURE
RIBBON EXPECTED TO BE A FAIR DISTANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THUS...BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS TO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY BROUGHT THEM SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. IN
FACT...CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY
12Z MONDAY. LEFT SOME LINGER LOW EVENING POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE ANOTHER WAVE SHOULD DROP DOWN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTED TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND...MOS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S LOOK GOOD BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...BLEND OF SLIGHTLY WARMER 00Z GFS AND COOLER 00Z NAM LOOK
GOOD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MID 60S HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190900Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS ARE HANGING AROUND A
LITTLE LONGER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT AT ALL SITES BUT KHUF. CLEARING
IS MAKING ITS WAY TO KLAF AND KBMG AND LOOKS LIKE IT COULD REACH
BOTH SITES WITHIN THE HOUR BUT KIND SHOULD STAY MVFR THROUGH 10Z AND
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT LONGER THAN THAT BUT HAVE GONE WITH MORE
OPTIMISTIC TIMING. AFTER THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS
AND THUS VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 190817
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
417 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN COLD AND
DRY WEATHER THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE NEAR
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 50S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S MIDWEEK BUT WARMING TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NEAR TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON THE MORNING FROST THIS MORNING AS THE
STRATOCU DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS
OF EROSION ACROSS PARTS OF OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. AS
SUCH...SUB-40 DEGREE TEMPERATURES WERE CONFINED TO NEAR AND NORTH OF
A FORT WAYNE TO KANKAKEE LINE AT 230 AM EDT. THIS HAS LEND TO
LOWERED CONFIDENCE WITH THE FROST ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS AWIPS DISTANCE SPEED TOOL WOULD HAVE THE
CLEARING LINE THERE RIGHT AROUND 12Z...RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE.
STILL...WOULD HATE TO PULL THE ADVISORY ONLY TO HAVE BREAKS AND OR
CLEARING RESULT IN A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SO...WILL LEAVE THE
ADVISORY GOING FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES THROUGH 9 AM AS IS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY AFTER THE STRATOCU MOVES OFF. STILL...EVEN WITH
SUNSHINE AND MODEST SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS...DO NOT THINK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE AGGRESSIVE 00Z GFS NUMBERS
WITH SHALLOW INVERSION PREVENTING MUCH OF ANY MIXING DOWN. PREFER
TRENDING TOWARD THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON POPS AS MODELS ARE SIMILAR THAT
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z GFS IS NOW TRENDING BETTER WITH THE STEADIER 12Z
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE GFS IS ALSO NOW NOT AS MOIST AND THUS
THE 00Z GFS MOS POPS HAVE BEEN TAMED DOWN FROM EARLY LIKELY
CATEGORY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPER...ALBEIT HO HUM MOISTURE
RIBBON EXPECTED TO BE A FAIR DISTANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THUS...BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS TO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY BROUGHT THEM SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. IN
FACT...CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY
12Z MONDAY. LEFT SOME LINGER LOW EVENING POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE ANOTHER WAVE SHOULD DROP DOWN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTED TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND...MOS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S LOOK GOOD BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...BLEND OF SLIGHTLY WARMER 00Z GFS AND COOLER 00Z NAM LOOK
GOOD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MID 60S HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190900Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS ARE HANGING AROUND A
LITTLE LONGER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT AT ALL SITES BUT KHUF. CLEARING
IS MAKING ITS WAY TO KLAF AND KBMG AND LOOKS LIKE IT COULD REACH
BOTH SITES WITHIN THE HOUR BUT KIND SHOULD STAY MVFR THROUGH 10Z AND
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT LONGER THAN THAT BUT HAVE GONE WITH MORE
OPTIMISTIC TIMING. AFTER THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS
AND THUS VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 190641
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN COLD AND
DRY WEATHER THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE NEAR
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 50S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S MIDWEEK BUT WARMING TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NEAR TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON THE MORNING FROST THIS MORNING AS THE
STRATOCU DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS
OF EROSION ACROSS PARTS OF OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. AS
SUCH...SUB-40 DEGREE TEMPERATURES WERE CONFINED TO NEAR AND NORTH OF
A FORT WAYNE TO KANKAKEE LINE AT 230 AM EDT. THIS HAS LEND TO
LOWERED CONFIDENCE WITH THE FROST ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS AWIPS DISTANCE SPEED TOOL WOULD HAVE THE
CLEARING LINE THERE RIGHT AROUND 12Z...RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE.
STILL...WOULD HATE TO PULL THE ADVISORY ONLY TO HAVE BREAKS AND OR
CLEARING RESULT IN A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SO...WILL LEAVE THE
ADVISORY GOING FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES THROUGH 9 AM AS IS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY AFTER THE STATOCU MOVES OFF. STILL...EVEN WITH SUNSHINE
AND MODEST SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS...DO NOT THINK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE AGGRESSIVE 00Z GFS NUMBERS WITH SHALLOW
INVERSION PREVENTING MUCH OF ANY MIXING DOWN. PREFER TRENDING TOWARD
THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON POPS AS MODELS ARE SIMILAR THAT
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z GFS IS NOW TRENDING BETTER WITH THE STEADIER 12Z
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE GFS IS ALSO NOW NOT AS MOIST AND THUS
THE 00Z GFS MOS POPS HAVE BEEN TAMED DOWN FROM EARLY LIKELY
CATEGORY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPER...ALBEIT HO HUM MOISTURE
RIBBON EXPECTED TO BE A FAIR DISTANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THUS...BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS TO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY BROUGHT THEM SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. IN
FACT...CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY
12Z MONDAY. LEFT SOME LINGER LOW EVENING POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE ANOTHER WAVE SHOULD DROP DOWN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTED TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND...MOS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S LOOK GOOD BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...BLEND OF SLIGHTLY WARMER 00Z GFS AND COOLER 00Z NAM LOOK
GOOD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MID 60S HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1252 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES.

IR IMAGES SHOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEPART AND
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST THESE CIGS CONTINUE TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN THEN BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND AFTER DAYBREAK WITH UNREACHABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THUS VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 190641
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN COLD AND
DRY WEATHER THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE NEAR
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 50S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S MIDWEEK BUT WARMING TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NEAR TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON THE MORNING FROST THIS MORNING AS THE
STRATOCU DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS
OF EROSION ACROSS PARTS OF OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. AS
SUCH...SUB-40 DEGREE TEMPERATURES WERE CONFINED TO NEAR AND NORTH OF
A FORT WAYNE TO KANKAKEE LINE AT 230 AM EDT. THIS HAS LEND TO
LOWERED CONFIDENCE WITH THE FROST ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS AWIPS DISTANCE SPEED TOOL WOULD HAVE THE
CLEARING LINE THERE RIGHT AROUND 12Z...RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE.
STILL...WOULD HATE TO PULL THE ADVISORY ONLY TO HAVE BREAKS AND OR
CLEARING RESULT IN A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SO...WILL LEAVE THE
ADVISORY GOING FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES THROUGH 9 AM AS IS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY AFTER THE STATOCU MOVES OFF. STILL...EVEN WITH SUNSHINE
AND MODEST SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS...DO NOT THINK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE AGGRESSIVE 00Z GFS NUMBERS WITH SHALLOW
INVERSION PREVENTING MUCH OF ANY MIXING DOWN. PREFER TRENDING TOWARD
THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON POPS AS MODELS ARE SIMILAR THAT
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z GFS IS NOW TRENDING BETTER WITH THE STEADIER 12Z
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE GFS IS ALSO NOW NOT AS MOIST AND THUS
THE 00Z GFS MOS POPS HAVE BEEN TAMED DOWN FROM EARLY LIKELY
CATEGORY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPER...ALBEIT HO HUM MOISTURE
RIBBON EXPECTED TO BE A FAIR DISTANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THUS...BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS TO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY BROUGHT THEM SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. IN
FACT...CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY
12Z MONDAY. LEFT SOME LINGER LOW EVENING POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE ANOTHER WAVE SHOULD DROP DOWN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTED TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND...MOS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S LOOK GOOD BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...BLEND OF SLIGHTLY WARMER 00Z GFS AND COOLER 00Z NAM LOOK
GOOD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MID 60S HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1252 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES.

IR IMAGES SHOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEPART AND
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST THESE CIGS CONTINUE TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN THEN BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND AFTER DAYBREAK WITH UNREACHABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THUS VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 190612
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
212 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 916 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BEEN A FEW LOCAL POCKETS OF CLEARING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE
MAIN CLEARING LINE IS JUST NOW GETTING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER SHOULD
START BREAKING UP OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT IT MAY BE 190800Z-190900Z BEFORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
REACHES THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. BEST FROST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE SKIES CLEAR EARLIER...BUT LOOKS
MORE QUESTIONABLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SKIES MAY NOT CLEAR OUT
FAST ENOUGH. AT THIS POINT...WILL LET THE FROST ADVISORY CONTINUE AS
IS.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAT WHAT WAS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START
FALLING OFF MORE RAPIDLY ONCE SKIES CLEAR...SO WILL ONLY NUDGE UP
THE LOWS SLIGHTLY AT THIS TIME.

ALSO SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS MORNING ONCE SKIES
CLEAR GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND
EARLIER RAINFALL. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE NIGHT GOES BY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THIS COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DUE TO BE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END AND A GRADUAL CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE TO
COMMENCE TONIGHT. LEFT FROST ADVISORY INTACT BUT WENT WITH AREAS
OF FROST RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD FROST BASED ON LOWS ONLY GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S MOST PLACES AND SOME QUESTIONABLE LEFT OVER
CLOUDINESS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM HANG ON A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE AREAS OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF
32 NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT
ON TOP OF INDIANA FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER FROM A CHILLY START INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

THEN MODELS SWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH (SIMILAR TO TODAY/SAT)
THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE DOWNPLAYED RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS BASED ON THE
LATEST (DRIER) GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND
UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAY/S
SYSTEM.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1252 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES.

IR IMAGES SHOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEPART AND
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST THESE CIGS CONTINUE TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN THEN BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND AFTER DAYBREAK WITH UNREACHABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THUS VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/JAS
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 190612
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
212 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 916 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BEEN A FEW LOCAL POCKETS OF CLEARING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE
MAIN CLEARING LINE IS JUST NOW GETTING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER SHOULD
START BREAKING UP OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT IT MAY BE 190800Z-190900Z BEFORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
REACHES THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. BEST FROST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE SKIES CLEAR EARLIER...BUT LOOKS
MORE QUESTIONABLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SKIES MAY NOT CLEAR OUT
FAST ENOUGH. AT THIS POINT...WILL LET THE FROST ADVISORY CONTINUE AS
IS.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAT WHAT WAS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START
FALLING OFF MORE RAPIDLY ONCE SKIES CLEAR...SO WILL ONLY NUDGE UP
THE LOWS SLIGHTLY AT THIS TIME.

ALSO SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS MORNING ONCE SKIES
CLEAR GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND
EARLIER RAINFALL. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE NIGHT GOES BY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THIS COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DUE TO BE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END AND A GRADUAL CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE TO
COMMENCE TONIGHT. LEFT FROST ADVISORY INTACT BUT WENT WITH AREAS
OF FROST RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD FROST BASED ON LOWS ONLY GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S MOST PLACES AND SOME QUESTIONABLE LEFT OVER
CLOUDINESS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM HANG ON A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE AREAS OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF
32 NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT
ON TOP OF INDIANA FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER FROM A CHILLY START INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

THEN MODELS SWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH (SIMILAR TO TODAY/SAT)
THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE DOWNPLAYED RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS BASED ON THE
LATEST (DRIER) GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND
UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAY/S
SYSTEM.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1252 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES.

IR IMAGES SHOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEPART AND
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST THESE CIGS CONTINUE TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN THEN BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND AFTER DAYBREAK WITH UNREACHABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THUS VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/JAS
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 190453
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1252 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 916 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BEEN A FEW LOCAL POCKETS OF CLEARING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE
MAIN CLEARING LINE IS JUST NOW GETTING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER SHOULD
START BREAKING UP OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT IT MAY BE 190800Z-190900Z BEFORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
REACHES THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. BEST FROST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE SKIES CLEAR EARLIER...BUT LOOKS
MORE QUESTIONABLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SKIES MAY NOT CLEAR OUT
FAST ENOUGH. AT THIS POINT...WILL LET THE FROST ADVISORY CONTINUE AS
IS.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAT WHAT WAS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START
FALLING OFF MORE RAPIDLY ONCE SKIES CLEAR...SO WILL ONLY NUDGE UP
THE LOWS SLIGHTLY AT THIS TIME.

ALSO SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS MORNING ONCE SKIES
CLEAR GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND
EARLIER RAINFALL. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE NIGHT GOES BY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THIS COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DUE TO BE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END AND A GRADUAL CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE TO
COMMENCE TONIGHT. LEFT FROST ADVISORY INTACT BUT WENT WITH AREAS
OF FROST RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD FROST BASED ON LOWS ONLY GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S MOST PLACES AND SOME QUESTIONABLE LEFT OVER
CLOUDINESS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM HANG ON A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE AREAS OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF
32 NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT
ON TOP OF INDIANA FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER FROM A CHILLY START INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

THEN MODELS SWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH (SIMILAR TO TODAY/SAT)
THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE DOWNPLAYED RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS BASED ON THE
LATEST (DRIER) GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND
UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAY/S
SYSTEM.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE LONG TERM
DRY. LACK OF RETURN FLOW SUGGESTS IT WILL ONLY GRADUALLY WARM WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWERS ON WEDNESDAY PER
REGIONAL BLEND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NUMBERS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1252 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES.

IR IMAGES SHOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEPART AND
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST THESE CIGS CONTINUE TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN THEN BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND AFTER DAYBREAK WITH UNREACHABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THUS VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/JAS
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....KOCH
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 190453
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1252 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 916 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BEEN A FEW LOCAL POCKETS OF CLEARING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE
MAIN CLEARING LINE IS JUST NOW GETTING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER SHOULD
START BREAKING UP OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT IT MAY BE 190800Z-190900Z BEFORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
REACHES THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. BEST FROST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE SKIES CLEAR EARLIER...BUT LOOKS
MORE QUESTIONABLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SKIES MAY NOT CLEAR OUT
FAST ENOUGH. AT THIS POINT...WILL LET THE FROST ADVISORY CONTINUE AS
IS.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAT WHAT WAS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START
FALLING OFF MORE RAPIDLY ONCE SKIES CLEAR...SO WILL ONLY NUDGE UP
THE LOWS SLIGHTLY AT THIS TIME.

ALSO SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS MORNING ONCE SKIES
CLEAR GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND
EARLIER RAINFALL. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE NIGHT GOES BY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THIS COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DUE TO BE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END AND A GRADUAL CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE TO
COMMENCE TONIGHT. LEFT FROST ADVISORY INTACT BUT WENT WITH AREAS
OF FROST RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD FROST BASED ON LOWS ONLY GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S MOST PLACES AND SOME QUESTIONABLE LEFT OVER
CLOUDINESS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM HANG ON A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE AREAS OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF
32 NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT
ON TOP OF INDIANA FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER FROM A CHILLY START INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

THEN MODELS SWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH (SIMILAR TO TODAY/SAT)
THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE DOWNPLAYED RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS BASED ON THE
LATEST (DRIER) GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND
UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAY/S
SYSTEM.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE LONG TERM
DRY. LACK OF RETURN FLOW SUGGESTS IT WILL ONLY GRADUALLY WARM WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWERS ON WEDNESDAY PER
REGIONAL BLEND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NUMBERS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1252 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES.

IR IMAGES SHOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEPART AND
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST THESE CIGS CONTINUE TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN THEN BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND AFTER DAYBREAK WITH UNREACHABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THUS VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/JAS
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....KOCH
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 190453
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1252 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 916 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BEEN A FEW LOCAL POCKETS OF CLEARING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE
MAIN CLEARING LINE IS JUST NOW GETTING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER SHOULD
START BREAKING UP OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT IT MAY BE 190800Z-190900Z BEFORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
REACHES THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. BEST FROST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE SKIES CLEAR EARLIER...BUT LOOKS
MORE QUESTIONABLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SKIES MAY NOT CLEAR OUT
FAST ENOUGH. AT THIS POINT...WILL LET THE FROST ADVISORY CONTINUE AS
IS.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAT WHAT WAS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START
FALLING OFF MORE RAPIDLY ONCE SKIES CLEAR...SO WILL ONLY NUDGE UP
THE LOWS SLIGHTLY AT THIS TIME.

ALSO SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS MORNING ONCE SKIES
CLEAR GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND
EARLIER RAINFALL. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE NIGHT GOES BY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THIS COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DUE TO BE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END AND A GRADUAL CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE TO
COMMENCE TONIGHT. LEFT FROST ADVISORY INTACT BUT WENT WITH AREAS
OF FROST RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD FROST BASED ON LOWS ONLY GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S MOST PLACES AND SOME QUESTIONABLE LEFT OVER
CLOUDINESS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM HANG ON A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE AREAS OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF
32 NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT
ON TOP OF INDIANA FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER FROM A CHILLY START INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

THEN MODELS SWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH (SIMILAR TO TODAY/SAT)
THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE DOWNPLAYED RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS BASED ON THE
LATEST (DRIER) GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND
UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAY/S
SYSTEM.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE LONG TERM
DRY. LACK OF RETURN FLOW SUGGESTS IT WILL ONLY GRADUALLY WARM WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWERS ON WEDNESDAY PER
REGIONAL BLEND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NUMBERS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1252 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES.

IR IMAGES SHOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEPART AND
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST THESE CIGS CONTINUE TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN THEN BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND AFTER DAYBREAK WITH UNREACHABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THUS VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/JAS
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....KOCH
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 190453
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1252 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 916 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BEEN A FEW LOCAL POCKETS OF CLEARING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE
MAIN CLEARING LINE IS JUST NOW GETTING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER SHOULD
START BREAKING UP OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT IT MAY BE 190800Z-190900Z BEFORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
REACHES THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. BEST FROST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE SKIES CLEAR EARLIER...BUT LOOKS
MORE QUESTIONABLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SKIES MAY NOT CLEAR OUT
FAST ENOUGH. AT THIS POINT...WILL LET THE FROST ADVISORY CONTINUE AS
IS.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAT WHAT WAS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START
FALLING OFF MORE RAPIDLY ONCE SKIES CLEAR...SO WILL ONLY NUDGE UP
THE LOWS SLIGHTLY AT THIS TIME.

ALSO SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS MORNING ONCE SKIES
CLEAR GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND
EARLIER RAINFALL. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE NIGHT GOES BY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THIS COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DUE TO BE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END AND A GRADUAL CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE TO
COMMENCE TONIGHT. LEFT FROST ADVISORY INTACT BUT WENT WITH AREAS
OF FROST RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD FROST BASED ON LOWS ONLY GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S MOST PLACES AND SOME QUESTIONABLE LEFT OVER
CLOUDINESS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM HANG ON A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE AREAS OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF
32 NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT
ON TOP OF INDIANA FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER FROM A CHILLY START INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

THEN MODELS SWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH (SIMILAR TO TODAY/SAT)
THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE DOWNPLAYED RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS BASED ON THE
LATEST (DRIER) GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND
UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAY/S
SYSTEM.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE LONG TERM
DRY. LACK OF RETURN FLOW SUGGESTS IT WILL ONLY GRADUALLY WARM WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWERS ON WEDNESDAY PER
REGIONAL BLEND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NUMBERS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1252 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES.

IR IMAGES SHOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEPART AND
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST THESE CIGS CONTINUE TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN THEN BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND AFTER DAYBREAK WITH UNREACHABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THUS VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/JAS
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....KOCH
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 190355
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1155 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONCERN THAT AREAS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 MAY NOT CLEAR LONG ENOUGH FOR FROST. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE STRATOCU DECK WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER LATE THIS
EVENING. AWIPS DISTANCE SPEED TOOL TRACKS IT TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR
AROUND 5 AM AND TO OUR SOUTHERN BORDER NEAR 8 AM. DESPITE LOWER
CONFIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA COUNTIES...WILL LET THIS
PLAY OUT. UPSTREAM NORTHERN ILLINOIS COUNTIES QUICKLY DROPPED TO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S...SO HAVE NOT LOST ALL HOPE IN FROST THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BEEN A FEW LOCAL POCKETS OF CLEARING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE
MAIN CLEARING LINE IS JUST NOW GETTING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER SHOULD
START BREAKING UP OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT IT MAY BE 190800Z-190900Z BEFORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
REACHES THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. BEST FROST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE SKIES CLEAR EARLIER...BUT LOOKS
MORE QUESTIONABLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SKIES MAY NOT CLEAR OUT
FAST ENOUGH. AT THIS POINT...WILL LET THE FROST ADVISORY CONTINUE AS
IS.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAT WHAT WAS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START
FALLING OFF MORE RAPIDLY ONCE SKIES CLEAR...SO WILL ONLY NUDGE UP
THE LOWS SLIGHTLY AT THIS TIME.

ALSO SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS MORNING ONCE SKIES
CLEAR GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND
EARLIER RAINFALL. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE NIGHT GOES BY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THIS COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DUE TO BE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END AND A GRADUAL CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE TO
COMMENCE TONIGHT. LEFT FROST ADVISORY INTACT BUT WENT WITH AREAS
OF FROST RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD FROST BASED ON LOWS ONLY GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S MOST PLACES AND SOME QUESTIONABLE LEFT OVER
CLOUDINESS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM HANG ON A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE AREAS OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF
32 NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT
ON TOP OF INDIANA FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER FROM A CHILLY START INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

THEN MODELS SWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH (SIMILAR TO TODAY/SAT)
THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE DOWNPLAYED RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS BASED ON THE
LATEST (DRIER) GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND
UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAY/S
SYSTEM.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE LONG TERM
DRY. LACK OF RETURN FLOW SUGGESTS IT WILL ONLY GRADUALLY WARM WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWERS ON WEDNESDAY PER
REGIONAL BLEND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NUMBERS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BACK EDGE CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST...ALBEIT SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. THUS HAVE TRENDING THE
VFR CIGS A BIT SLOWER IN THE 03Z UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 19000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST 1-3 HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

CLOUD SHIELD OVER INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AND DRIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS EASTWARD AND PROVIDES CLEAR SKIES
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
DRY OVERNIGHT. IR IMAGES SHOWING SOME HIGH CI OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST THAT COULD REACH CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE QUICK NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE MAY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON SUNDAY THAT ARE
UNATTAINABLE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS INDIANA.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/JAS
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JP/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 190355
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1155 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONCERN THAT AREAS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 MAY NOT CLEAR LONG ENOUGH FOR FROST. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE STRATOCU DECK WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER LATE THIS
EVENING. AWIPS DISTANCE SPEED TOOL TRACKS IT TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR
AROUND 5 AM AND TO OUR SOUTHERN BORDER NEAR 8 AM. DESPITE LOWER
CONFIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA COUNTIES...WILL LET THIS
PLAY OUT. UPSTREAM NORTHERN ILLINOIS COUNTIES QUICKLY DROPPED TO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S...SO HAVE NOT LOST ALL HOPE IN FROST THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BEEN A FEW LOCAL POCKETS OF CLEARING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE
MAIN CLEARING LINE IS JUST NOW GETTING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER SHOULD
START BREAKING UP OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT IT MAY BE 190800Z-190900Z BEFORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
REACHES THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. BEST FROST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE SKIES CLEAR EARLIER...BUT LOOKS
MORE QUESTIONABLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SKIES MAY NOT CLEAR OUT
FAST ENOUGH. AT THIS POINT...WILL LET THE FROST ADVISORY CONTINUE AS
IS.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAT WHAT WAS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START
FALLING OFF MORE RAPIDLY ONCE SKIES CLEAR...SO WILL ONLY NUDGE UP
THE LOWS SLIGHTLY AT THIS TIME.

ALSO SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS MORNING ONCE SKIES
CLEAR GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND
EARLIER RAINFALL. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE NIGHT GOES BY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THIS COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DUE TO BE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END AND A GRADUAL CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE TO
COMMENCE TONIGHT. LEFT FROST ADVISORY INTACT BUT WENT WITH AREAS
OF FROST RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD FROST BASED ON LOWS ONLY GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S MOST PLACES AND SOME QUESTIONABLE LEFT OVER
CLOUDINESS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM HANG ON A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE AREAS OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF
32 NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT
ON TOP OF INDIANA FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER FROM A CHILLY START INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

THEN MODELS SWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH (SIMILAR TO TODAY/SAT)
THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE DOWNPLAYED RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS BASED ON THE
LATEST (DRIER) GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND
UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAY/S
SYSTEM.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE LONG TERM
DRY. LACK OF RETURN FLOW SUGGESTS IT WILL ONLY GRADUALLY WARM WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWERS ON WEDNESDAY PER
REGIONAL BLEND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NUMBERS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BACK EDGE CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST...ALBEIT SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. THUS HAVE TRENDING THE
VFR CIGS A BIT SLOWER IN THE 03Z UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 19000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST 1-3 HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

CLOUD SHIELD OVER INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AND DRIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS EASTWARD AND PROVIDES CLEAR SKIES
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
DRY OVERNIGHT. IR IMAGES SHOWING SOME HIGH CI OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST THAT COULD REACH CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE QUICK NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE MAY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON SUNDAY THAT ARE
UNATTAINABLE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS INDIANA.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/JAS
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JP/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 190355
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1155 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONCERN THAT AREAS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 MAY NOT CLEAR LONG ENOUGH FOR FROST. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE STRATOCU DECK WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER LATE THIS
EVENING. AWIPS DISTANCE SPEED TOOL TRACKS IT TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR
AROUND 5 AM AND TO OUR SOUTHERN BORDER NEAR 8 AM. DESPITE LOWER
CONFIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA COUNTIES...WILL LET THIS
PLAY OUT. UPSTREAM NORTHERN ILLINOIS COUNTIES QUICKLY DROPPED TO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S...SO HAVE NOT LOST ALL HOPE IN FROST THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BEEN A FEW LOCAL POCKETS OF CLEARING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE
MAIN CLEARING LINE IS JUST NOW GETTING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER SHOULD
START BREAKING UP OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT IT MAY BE 190800Z-190900Z BEFORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
REACHES THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. BEST FROST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE SKIES CLEAR EARLIER...BUT LOOKS
MORE QUESTIONABLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SKIES MAY NOT CLEAR OUT
FAST ENOUGH. AT THIS POINT...WILL LET THE FROST ADVISORY CONTINUE AS
IS.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAT WHAT WAS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START
FALLING OFF MORE RAPIDLY ONCE SKIES CLEAR...SO WILL ONLY NUDGE UP
THE LOWS SLIGHTLY AT THIS TIME.

ALSO SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS MORNING ONCE SKIES
CLEAR GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND
EARLIER RAINFALL. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE NIGHT GOES BY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THIS COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DUE TO BE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END AND A GRADUAL CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE TO
COMMENCE TONIGHT. LEFT FROST ADVISORY INTACT BUT WENT WITH AREAS
OF FROST RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD FROST BASED ON LOWS ONLY GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S MOST PLACES AND SOME QUESTIONABLE LEFT OVER
CLOUDINESS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM HANG ON A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE AREAS OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF
32 NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT
ON TOP OF INDIANA FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER FROM A CHILLY START INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

THEN MODELS SWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH (SIMILAR TO TODAY/SAT)
THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE DOWNPLAYED RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS BASED ON THE
LATEST (DRIER) GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND
UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAY/S
SYSTEM.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE LONG TERM
DRY. LACK OF RETURN FLOW SUGGESTS IT WILL ONLY GRADUALLY WARM WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWERS ON WEDNESDAY PER
REGIONAL BLEND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NUMBERS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BACK EDGE CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST...ALBEIT SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. THUS HAVE TRENDING THE
VFR CIGS A BIT SLOWER IN THE 03Z UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 19000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST 1-3 HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

CLOUD SHIELD OVER INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AND DRIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS EASTWARD AND PROVIDES CLEAR SKIES
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
DRY OVERNIGHT. IR IMAGES SHOWING SOME HIGH CI OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST THAT COULD REACH CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE QUICK NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE MAY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON SUNDAY THAT ARE
UNATTAINABLE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS INDIANA.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/JAS
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JP/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 190355
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1155 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONCERN THAT AREAS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 MAY NOT CLEAR LONG ENOUGH FOR FROST. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE STRATOCU DECK WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER LATE THIS
EVENING. AWIPS DISTANCE SPEED TOOL TRACKS IT TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR
AROUND 5 AM AND TO OUR SOUTHERN BORDER NEAR 8 AM. DESPITE LOWER
CONFIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA COUNTIES...WILL LET THIS
PLAY OUT. UPSTREAM NORTHERN ILLINOIS COUNTIES QUICKLY DROPPED TO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S...SO HAVE NOT LOST ALL HOPE IN FROST THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BEEN A FEW LOCAL POCKETS OF CLEARING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE
MAIN CLEARING LINE IS JUST NOW GETTING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER SHOULD
START BREAKING UP OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT IT MAY BE 190800Z-190900Z BEFORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
REACHES THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. BEST FROST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE SKIES CLEAR EARLIER...BUT LOOKS
MORE QUESTIONABLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SKIES MAY NOT CLEAR OUT
FAST ENOUGH. AT THIS POINT...WILL LET THE FROST ADVISORY CONTINUE AS
IS.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAT WHAT WAS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START
FALLING OFF MORE RAPIDLY ONCE SKIES CLEAR...SO WILL ONLY NUDGE UP
THE LOWS SLIGHTLY AT THIS TIME.

ALSO SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS MORNING ONCE SKIES
CLEAR GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND
EARLIER RAINFALL. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE NIGHT GOES BY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THIS COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DUE TO BE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END AND A GRADUAL CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE TO
COMMENCE TONIGHT. LEFT FROST ADVISORY INTACT BUT WENT WITH AREAS
OF FROST RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD FROST BASED ON LOWS ONLY GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S MOST PLACES AND SOME QUESTIONABLE LEFT OVER
CLOUDINESS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM HANG ON A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE AREAS OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF
32 NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT
ON TOP OF INDIANA FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER FROM A CHILLY START INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

THEN MODELS SWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH (SIMILAR TO TODAY/SAT)
THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE DOWNPLAYED RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS BASED ON THE
LATEST (DRIER) GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND
UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAY/S
SYSTEM.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE LONG TERM
DRY. LACK OF RETURN FLOW SUGGESTS IT WILL ONLY GRADUALLY WARM WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWERS ON WEDNESDAY PER
REGIONAL BLEND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NUMBERS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BACK EDGE CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST...ALBEIT SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. THUS HAVE TRENDING THE
VFR CIGS A BIT SLOWER IN THE 03Z UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 19000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST 1-3 HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

CLOUD SHIELD OVER INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AND DRIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS EASTWARD AND PROVIDES CLEAR SKIES
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
DRY OVERNIGHT. IR IMAGES SHOWING SOME HIGH CI OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST THAT COULD REACH CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE QUICK NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE MAY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON SUNDAY THAT ARE
UNATTAINABLE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS INDIANA.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/JAS
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JP/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 190234
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1034 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 916 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BEEN A FEW LOCAL POCKETS OF CLEARING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE
MAIN CLEARING LINE IS JUST NOW GETTING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER SHOULD
START BREAKING UP OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT IT MAY BE 190800Z-190900Z BEFORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
REACHES THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. BEST FROST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE SKIES CLEAR EARLIER...BUT LOOKS
MORE QUESTIONABLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SKIES MAY NOT CLEAR OUT
FAST ENOUGH. AT THIS POINT...WILL LET THE FROST ADVISORY CONTINUE AS
IS.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAT WHAT WAS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START
FALLING OFF MORE RAPIDLY ONCE SKIES CLEAR...SO WILL ONLY NUDGE UP
THE LOWS SLIGHTLY AT THIS TIME.

ALSO SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS MORNING ONCE SKIES
CLEAR GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND
EARLIER RAINFALL. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE NIGHT GOES BY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THIS COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DUE TO BE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END AND A GRADUAL CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE TO
COMMENCE TONIGHT. LEFT FROST ADVISORY INTACT BUT WENT WITH AREAS
OF FROST RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD FROST BASED ON LOWS ONLY GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S MOST PLACES AND SOME QUESTIONABLE LEFT OVER
CLOUDINESS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM HANG ON A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE AREAS OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF
32 NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT
ON TOP OF INDIANA FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER FROM A CHILLY START INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

THEN MODELS SWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH (SIMILAR TO TODAY/SAT)
THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE DOWNPLAYED RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS BASED ON THE
LATEST (DRIER) GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND
UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAY/S
SYSTEM.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE LONG TERM
DRY. LACK OF RETURN FLOW SUGGESTS IT WILL ONLY GRADUALLY WARM WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWERS ON WEDNESDAY PER
REGIONAL BLEND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NUMBERS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BACK EDGE CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST...ALBEIT SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. THUS HAVE TRENDING THE
VFR CIGS A BIT SLOWER IN THE 03Z UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 19000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST 1-3 HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

CLOUD SHIELD OVER INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AND DRIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS EASTWARD AND PROVIDES CLEAR SKIES
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
DRY OVERNIGHT. IR IMAGES SHOWING SOME HIGH CI OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST THAT COULD REACH CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE QUICK NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE MAY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON SUNDAY THAT ARE
UNATTAINABLE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS INDIANA.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/JAS
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....KOCH
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 190234
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1034 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 916 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BEEN A FEW LOCAL POCKETS OF CLEARING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE
MAIN CLEARING LINE IS JUST NOW GETTING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER SHOULD
START BREAKING UP OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT IT MAY BE 190800Z-190900Z BEFORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
REACHES THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. BEST FROST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE SKIES CLEAR EARLIER...BUT LOOKS
MORE QUESTIONABLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SKIES MAY NOT CLEAR OUT
FAST ENOUGH. AT THIS POINT...WILL LET THE FROST ADVISORY CONTINUE AS
IS.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAT WHAT WAS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START
FALLING OFF MORE RAPIDLY ONCE SKIES CLEAR...SO WILL ONLY NUDGE UP
THE LOWS SLIGHTLY AT THIS TIME.

ALSO SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS MORNING ONCE SKIES
CLEAR GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND
EARLIER RAINFALL. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE NIGHT GOES BY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THIS COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DUE TO BE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END AND A GRADUAL CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE TO
COMMENCE TONIGHT. LEFT FROST ADVISORY INTACT BUT WENT WITH AREAS
OF FROST RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD FROST BASED ON LOWS ONLY GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S MOST PLACES AND SOME QUESTIONABLE LEFT OVER
CLOUDINESS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM HANG ON A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE AREAS OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF
32 NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT
ON TOP OF INDIANA FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER FROM A CHILLY START INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

THEN MODELS SWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH (SIMILAR TO TODAY/SAT)
THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE DOWNPLAYED RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS BASED ON THE
LATEST (DRIER) GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND
UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAY/S
SYSTEM.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE LONG TERM
DRY. LACK OF RETURN FLOW SUGGESTS IT WILL ONLY GRADUALLY WARM WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWERS ON WEDNESDAY PER
REGIONAL BLEND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NUMBERS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BACK EDGE CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST...ALBEIT SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. THUS HAVE TRENDING THE
VFR CIGS A BIT SLOWER IN THE 03Z UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 19000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST 1-3 HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

CLOUD SHIELD OVER INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AND DRIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS EASTWARD AND PROVIDES CLEAR SKIES
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
DRY OVERNIGHT. IR IMAGES SHOWING SOME HIGH CI OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST THAT COULD REACH CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE QUICK NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE MAY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON SUNDAY THAT ARE
UNATTAINABLE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS INDIANA.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/JAS
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....KOCH
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 190234
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1034 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 916 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BEEN A FEW LOCAL POCKETS OF CLEARING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE
MAIN CLEARING LINE IS JUST NOW GETTING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER SHOULD
START BREAKING UP OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT IT MAY BE 190800Z-190900Z BEFORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
REACHES THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. BEST FROST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE SKIES CLEAR EARLIER...BUT LOOKS
MORE QUESTIONABLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SKIES MAY NOT CLEAR OUT
FAST ENOUGH. AT THIS POINT...WILL LET THE FROST ADVISORY CONTINUE AS
IS.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAT WHAT WAS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START
FALLING OFF MORE RAPIDLY ONCE SKIES CLEAR...SO WILL ONLY NUDGE UP
THE LOWS SLIGHTLY AT THIS TIME.

ALSO SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS MORNING ONCE SKIES
CLEAR GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND
EARLIER RAINFALL. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE NIGHT GOES BY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THIS COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DUE TO BE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END AND A GRADUAL CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE TO
COMMENCE TONIGHT. LEFT FROST ADVISORY INTACT BUT WENT WITH AREAS
OF FROST RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD FROST BASED ON LOWS ONLY GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S MOST PLACES AND SOME QUESTIONABLE LEFT OVER
CLOUDINESS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM HANG ON A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE AREAS OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF
32 NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT
ON TOP OF INDIANA FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER FROM A CHILLY START INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

THEN MODELS SWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH (SIMILAR TO TODAY/SAT)
THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE DOWNPLAYED RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS BASED ON THE
LATEST (DRIER) GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND
UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAY/S
SYSTEM.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE LONG TERM
DRY. LACK OF RETURN FLOW SUGGESTS IT WILL ONLY GRADUALLY WARM WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWERS ON WEDNESDAY PER
REGIONAL BLEND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NUMBERS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BACK EDGE CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST...ALBEIT SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. THUS HAVE TRENDING THE
VFR CIGS A BIT SLOWER IN THE 03Z UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 19000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST 1-3 HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

CLOUD SHIELD OVER INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AND DRIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS EASTWARD AND PROVIDES CLEAR SKIES
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
DRY OVERNIGHT. IR IMAGES SHOWING SOME HIGH CI OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST THAT COULD REACH CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE QUICK NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE MAY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON SUNDAY THAT ARE
UNATTAINABLE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS INDIANA.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/JAS
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....KOCH
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 190234
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1034 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 916 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BEEN A FEW LOCAL POCKETS OF CLEARING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE
MAIN CLEARING LINE IS JUST NOW GETTING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER SHOULD
START BREAKING UP OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT IT MAY BE 190800Z-190900Z BEFORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
REACHES THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. BEST FROST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE SKIES CLEAR EARLIER...BUT LOOKS
MORE QUESTIONABLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SKIES MAY NOT CLEAR OUT
FAST ENOUGH. AT THIS POINT...WILL LET THE FROST ADVISORY CONTINUE AS
IS.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAT WHAT WAS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START
FALLING OFF MORE RAPIDLY ONCE SKIES CLEAR...SO WILL ONLY NUDGE UP
THE LOWS SLIGHTLY AT THIS TIME.

ALSO SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS MORNING ONCE SKIES
CLEAR GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND
EARLIER RAINFALL. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE NIGHT GOES BY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THIS COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DUE TO BE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END AND A GRADUAL CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE TO
COMMENCE TONIGHT. LEFT FROST ADVISORY INTACT BUT WENT WITH AREAS
OF FROST RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD FROST BASED ON LOWS ONLY GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S MOST PLACES AND SOME QUESTIONABLE LEFT OVER
CLOUDINESS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM HANG ON A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE AREAS OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF
32 NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT
ON TOP OF INDIANA FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER FROM A CHILLY START INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

THEN MODELS SWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH (SIMILAR TO TODAY/SAT)
THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE DOWNPLAYED RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS BASED ON THE
LATEST (DRIER) GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND
UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAY/S
SYSTEM.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE LONG TERM
DRY. LACK OF RETURN FLOW SUGGESTS IT WILL ONLY GRADUALLY WARM WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWERS ON WEDNESDAY PER
REGIONAL BLEND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NUMBERS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BACK EDGE CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST...ALBEIT SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. THUS HAVE TRENDING THE
VFR CIGS A BIT SLOWER IN THE 03Z UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 19000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST 1-3 HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

CLOUD SHIELD OVER INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AND DRIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS EASTWARD AND PROVIDES CLEAR SKIES
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
DRY OVERNIGHT. IR IMAGES SHOWING SOME HIGH CI OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST THAT COULD REACH CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE QUICK NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE MAY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON SUNDAY THAT ARE
UNATTAINABLE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS INDIANA.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/JAS
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....KOCH
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 190128
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
926 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 916 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BEEN A FEW LOCAL POCKETS OF CLEARING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE
MAIN CLEARING LINE IS JUST NOW GETTING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER SHOULD
START BREAKING UP OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT IT MAY BE 190800Z-190900Z BEFORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
REACHES THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. BEST FROST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE SKIES CLEAR EARLIER...BUT LOOKS
MORE QUESTIONABLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SKIES MAY NOT CLEAR OUT
FAST ENOUGH. AT THIS POINT...WILL LET THE FROST ADVISORY CONTINUE AS
IS.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAT WHAT WAS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START
FALLING OFF MORE RAPIDLY ONCE SKIES CLEAR...SO WILL ONLY NUDGE UP
THE LOWS SLIGHTLY AT THIS TIME.

ALSO SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS MORNING ONCE SKIES
CLEAR GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND
EARLIER RAINFALL. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE NIGHT GOES BY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THIS COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DUE TO BE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END AND A GRADUAL CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE TO
COMMENCE TONIGHT. LEFT FROST ADVISORY INTACT BUT WENT WITH AREAS
OF FROST RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD FROST BASED ON LOWS ONLY GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S MOST PLACES AND SOME QUESTIONABLE LEFT OVER
CLOUDINESS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM HANG ON A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE AREAS OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF
32 NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT
ON TOP OF INDIANA FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER FROM A CHILLY START INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

THEN MODELS SWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH (SIMILAR TO TODAY/SAT)
THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE DOWNPLAYED RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS BASED ON THE
LATEST (DRIER) GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND
UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAY/S
SYSTEM.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE LONG TERM
DRY. LACK OF RETURN FLOW SUGGESTS IT WILL ONLY GRADUALLY WARM WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWERS ON WEDNESDAY PER
REGIONAL BLEND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NUMBERS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST 1-3 HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

CLOUD SHIELD OVER INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AND DRIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS EASTWARD AND PROVIDES CLEAR SKIES
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
DRY OVERNIGHT. IR IMAGES SHOWING SOME HIGH CI OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST THAT COULD REACH CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE QUICK NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE MAY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON SUNDAY THAT ARE
UNATTAINABLE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS INDIANA.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/JAS
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....KOCH
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 190128
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
926 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 916 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BEEN A FEW LOCAL POCKETS OF CLEARING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE
MAIN CLEARING LINE IS JUST NOW GETTING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER SHOULD
START BREAKING UP OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT IT MAY BE 190800Z-190900Z BEFORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
REACHES THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. BEST FROST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE SKIES CLEAR EARLIER...BUT LOOKS
MORE QUESTIONABLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SKIES MAY NOT CLEAR OUT
FAST ENOUGH. AT THIS POINT...WILL LET THE FROST ADVISORY CONTINUE AS
IS.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAT WHAT WAS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START
FALLING OFF MORE RAPIDLY ONCE SKIES CLEAR...SO WILL ONLY NUDGE UP
THE LOWS SLIGHTLY AT THIS TIME.

ALSO SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS MORNING ONCE SKIES
CLEAR GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND
EARLIER RAINFALL. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE NIGHT GOES BY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THIS COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DUE TO BE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END AND A GRADUAL CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE TO
COMMENCE TONIGHT. LEFT FROST ADVISORY INTACT BUT WENT WITH AREAS
OF FROST RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD FROST BASED ON LOWS ONLY GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S MOST PLACES AND SOME QUESTIONABLE LEFT OVER
CLOUDINESS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM HANG ON A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE AREAS OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF
32 NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT
ON TOP OF INDIANA FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER FROM A CHILLY START INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

THEN MODELS SWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH (SIMILAR TO TODAY/SAT)
THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE DOWNPLAYED RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS BASED ON THE
LATEST (DRIER) GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND
UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAY/S
SYSTEM.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE LONG TERM
DRY. LACK OF RETURN FLOW SUGGESTS IT WILL ONLY GRADUALLY WARM WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWERS ON WEDNESDAY PER
REGIONAL BLEND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NUMBERS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST 1-3 HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

CLOUD SHIELD OVER INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AND DRIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS EASTWARD AND PROVIDES CLEAR SKIES
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
DRY OVERNIGHT. IR IMAGES SHOWING SOME HIGH CI OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST THAT COULD REACH CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE QUICK NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE MAY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON SUNDAY THAT ARE
UNATTAINABLE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS INDIANA.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/JAS
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....KOCH
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 182314
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
714 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THIS COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DUE TO BE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END AND A GRADUAL CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE TO
COMMENCE TONIGHT. LEFT FROST ADVISORY INTACT BUT WENT WITH AREAS
OF FROST RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD FROST BASED ON LOWS ONLY GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S MOST PLACES AND SOME QUESTIONABLE LEFT OVER
CLOUDINESS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM HANG ON A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE AREAS OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF
32 NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT
ON TOP OF INDIANA FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER FROM A CHILLY START INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

THEN MODELS SWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH (SIMILAR TO TODAY/SAT)
THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE DOWNPLAYED RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS BASED ON THE
LATEST (DRIER) GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND
UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAY/S
SYSTEM.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE LONG TERM
DRY. LACK OF RETURN FLOW SUGGESTS IT WILL ONLY GRADUALLY WARM WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWERS ON WEDNESDAY PER
REGIONAL BLEND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NUMBERS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST 1-3 HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

CLOUD SHIELD OVER INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AND DRIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS EASTWARD AND PROVIDES CLEAR SKIES
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
DRY OVERNIGHT. IR IMAGES SHOWING SOME HIGH CI OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST THAT COULD REACH CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE QUICK NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE MAY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON SUNDAY THAT ARE
UNATTAINABLE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS INDIANA.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....KOCH
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 182314
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
714 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THIS COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DUE TO BE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END AND A GRADUAL CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE TO
COMMENCE TONIGHT. LEFT FROST ADVISORY INTACT BUT WENT WITH AREAS
OF FROST RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD FROST BASED ON LOWS ONLY GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S MOST PLACES AND SOME QUESTIONABLE LEFT OVER
CLOUDINESS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM HANG ON A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE AREAS OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF
32 NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT
ON TOP OF INDIANA FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER FROM A CHILLY START INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

THEN MODELS SWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH (SIMILAR TO TODAY/SAT)
THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE DOWNPLAYED RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS BASED ON THE
LATEST (DRIER) GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND
UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAY/S
SYSTEM.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE LONG TERM
DRY. LACK OF RETURN FLOW SUGGESTS IT WILL ONLY GRADUALLY WARM WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWERS ON WEDNESDAY PER
REGIONAL BLEND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NUMBERS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST 1-3 HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

CLOUD SHIELD OVER INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AND DRIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS EASTWARD AND PROVIDES CLEAR SKIES
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
DRY OVERNIGHT. IR IMAGES SHOWING SOME HIGH CI OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST THAT COULD REACH CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE QUICK NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE MAY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON SUNDAY THAT ARE
UNATTAINABLE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS INDIANA.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....KOCH
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 182039
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
439 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THIS COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DUE TO BE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END AND A GRADUAL CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE TO
COMMENCE TONIGHT. LEFT FROST ADVISORY INTACT BUT WENT WITH AREAS
OF FROST RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD FROST BASED ON LOWS ONLY GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S MOST PLACES AND SOME QUESTIONABLE LEFT OVER
CLOUDINESS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM HANG ON A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE AREAS OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF
32 NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT
ON TOP OF INDIANA FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER FROM A CHILLY START INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

THEN MODELS SWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH (SIMILAR TO TODAY/SAT)
THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE DOWNPLAYED RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS BASED ON THE
LATEST (DRIER) GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND
UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAY/S
SYSTEM.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE LONG TERM
DRY. LACK OF RETURN FLOW SUGGESTS IT WILL ONLY GRADUALLY WARM WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWERS ON WEDNESDAY PER
REGIONAL BLEND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NUMBERS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 182100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

MVFR TO VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS INDIANA AND
MUCH OF ILLINOIS IS EXPECTD TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
2-4 HOURS. RADAR SHOWS BACK EDGE OF PRECIP ENTERING WESTERN
CENTRAL INDIANA...PUSHING SOUTHEAST. HAVE TRENDED PRECIP AT IND TO
END BY 22-23Z...HOWEVER VFR/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER FOR MORE OF THE
EVENING HOURS.


/DISCUSSION FOR 181800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER WAVE WAS TRIGGERING A LARGE AREA OF RAIN THAT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR LAF AT NOON. THIS AREA WILL BRING VFR AND TEMPO
MVFR TO THE TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAFS.
THEN...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER 02Z WITH CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. LAF COULD HOLD ON TO SOME LAKE EFFECT VFR OR MVFR CU
UNTIL AFTER 06Z...AND COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOW STRATUS OR FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING. HOWEVER...NO CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO THROW LOW STRATUS OR FOG IN AT THE POINT.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR SO WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM
AFTER DARK.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....KOCH
AVIATION...MK/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 182039
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
439 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THIS COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DUE TO BE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END AND A GRADUAL CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE TO
COMMENCE TONIGHT. LEFT FROST ADVISORY INTACT BUT WENT WITH AREAS
OF FROST RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD FROST BASED ON LOWS ONLY GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S MOST PLACES AND SOME QUESTIONABLE LEFT OVER
CLOUDINESS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM HANG ON A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE AREAS OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF
32 NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT
ON TOP OF INDIANA FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER FROM A CHILLY START INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

THEN MODELS SWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH (SIMILAR TO TODAY/SAT)
THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE DOWNPLAYED RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS BASED ON THE
LATEST (DRIER) GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND
UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAY/S
SYSTEM.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE LONG TERM
DRY. LACK OF RETURN FLOW SUGGESTS IT WILL ONLY GRADUALLY WARM WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWERS ON WEDNESDAY PER
REGIONAL BLEND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NUMBERS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 182100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

MVFR TO VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS INDIANA AND
MUCH OF ILLINOIS IS EXPECTD TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
2-4 HOURS. RADAR SHOWS BACK EDGE OF PRECIP ENTERING WESTERN
CENTRAL INDIANA...PUSHING SOUTHEAST. HAVE TRENDED PRECIP AT IND TO
END BY 22-23Z...HOWEVER VFR/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER FOR MORE OF THE
EVENING HOURS.


/DISCUSSION FOR 181800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER WAVE WAS TRIGGERING A LARGE AREA OF RAIN THAT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR LAF AT NOON. THIS AREA WILL BRING VFR AND TEMPO
MVFR TO THE TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAFS.
THEN...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER 02Z WITH CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. LAF COULD HOLD ON TO SOME LAKE EFFECT VFR OR MVFR CU
UNTIL AFTER 06Z...AND COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOW STRATUS OR FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING. HOWEVER...NO CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO THROW LOW STRATUS OR FOG IN AT THE POINT.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR SO WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM
AFTER DARK.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....KOCH
AVIATION...MK/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 181908 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
308 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THIS COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DUE TO BE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END AND A GRADUAL CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE TO
COMMENCE TONIGHT. LEFT FROST ADVISORY INTACT BUT WENT WITH AREAS
OF FROST RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD FROST BASED ON LOWS ONLY GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S MOST PLACES AND SOME QUESTIONABLE LEFT OVER
CLOUDINESS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM HANG ON A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE AREAS OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF
32 NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT
ON TOP OF INDIANA FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER FROM A CHILLY START INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

THEN MODELS SWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH (SIMILAR TO TODAY/SAT)
THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE DOWNPLAYED RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS BASED ON THE
LATEST (DRIER) GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND
UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAY/S
SYSTEM.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE LONG TERM
DRY. LACK OF RETURN FLOW SUGGESTS IT WILL ONLY GRADUALLY WARM WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWERS ON WEDNESDAY PER
REGIONAL BLEND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NUMBERS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 181800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER WAVE WAS TRIGGERING A LARGE AREA OF RAIN THAT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR LAF AT NOON. THIS AREA WILL BRING VFR AND TEMPO
MVFR TO THE TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAFS.
THEN...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER 02Z WITH CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. LAF COULD HOLD ON TO SOME LAKE EFFECT VFR OR MVFR CU
UNTIL AFTER 06Z...AND COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOW STRATUS OR FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING. HOWEVER...NO CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO THROW LOW STRATUS OR FOG IN AT THE POINT.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR SO WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM
AFTER DARK.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....KOCH
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 181908 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
308 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THIS COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DUE TO BE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END AND A GRADUAL CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE TO
COMMENCE TONIGHT. LEFT FROST ADVISORY INTACT BUT WENT WITH AREAS
OF FROST RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD FROST BASED ON LOWS ONLY GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S MOST PLACES AND SOME QUESTIONABLE LEFT OVER
CLOUDINESS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM HANG ON A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE AREAS OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF
32 NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT
ON TOP OF INDIANA FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER FROM A CHILLY START INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

THEN MODELS SWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH (SIMILAR TO TODAY/SAT)
THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE DOWNPLAYED RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS BASED ON THE
LATEST (DRIER) GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND
UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAY/S
SYSTEM.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE LONG TERM
DRY. LACK OF RETURN FLOW SUGGESTS IT WILL ONLY GRADUALLY WARM WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWERS ON WEDNESDAY PER
REGIONAL BLEND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NUMBERS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 181800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER WAVE WAS TRIGGERING A LARGE AREA OF RAIN THAT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR LAF AT NOON. THIS AREA WILL BRING VFR AND TEMPO
MVFR TO THE TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAFS.
THEN...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER 02Z WITH CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. LAF COULD HOLD ON TO SOME LAKE EFFECT VFR OR MVFR CU
UNTIL AFTER 06Z...AND COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOW STRATUS OR FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING. HOWEVER...NO CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO THROW LOW STRATUS OR FOG IN AT THE POINT.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR SO WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM
AFTER DARK.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....KOCH
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 181820
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
220 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THIS COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. WITH CHANCES OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING THIS
EVENINGS. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DUE TO BE THROUGH THE REGION BY
THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END AND A GRADUAL
CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE TO COMMENCE TONIGHT. LEFT FROST ADVISORY
INTACT BUT WENT WITH AREAS OF FROST RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD FROST
BASED ON LOWS ONLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE MID 30S MOST PLACES AND
SOME QUESTIONABLE LEFT OVER CLOUDINESS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM HANG
ON A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE AREAS OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF
32 NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT
ON TOP OF INDIANA FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER FROM A CHILLY START INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

THEN MODELS SWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH (SIMILAR TO TODAY/SAT)
THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE DOWNPLAYED RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS BASED ON THE
LATEST (DRIER) GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND
UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAY/S
SYSTEM.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE LONG TERM
DRY. LACK OF RETURN FLOW SUGGESTS IT WILL ONLY GRADUALLY WARM WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWERS ON WEDNESDAY PER
REGIONAL BLEND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NUMBERS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 181800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER WAVE WAS TRIGGERING A LARGE AREA OF RAIN THAT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR LAF AT NOON. THIS AREA WILL BRING VFR AND TEMPO
MVFR TO THE TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAFS.
THEN...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER 02Z WITH CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. LAF COULD HOLD ON TO SOME LAKE EFFECT VFR OR MVFR CU
UNTIL AFTER 06Z...AND COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOW STRATUS OR FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING. HOWEVER...NO CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO THROW LOW STRATUS OR FOG IN AT THE POINT.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR SO WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM
AFTER DARK.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....KOCH
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 181820
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
220 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THIS COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. WITH CHANCES OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING THIS
EVENINGS. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DUE TO BE THROUGH THE REGION BY
THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END AND A GRADUAL
CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE TO COMMENCE TONIGHT. LEFT FROST ADVISORY
INTACT BUT WENT WITH AREAS OF FROST RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD FROST
BASED ON LOWS ONLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE MID 30S MOST PLACES AND
SOME QUESTIONABLE LEFT OVER CLOUDINESS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM HANG
ON A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE AREAS OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF
32 NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT
ON TOP OF INDIANA FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER FROM A CHILLY START INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

THEN MODELS SWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH (SIMILAR TO TODAY/SAT)
THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE DOWNPLAYED RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS BASED ON THE
LATEST (DRIER) GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND
UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAY/S
SYSTEM.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE LONG TERM
DRY. LACK OF RETURN FLOW SUGGESTS IT WILL ONLY GRADUALLY WARM WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWERS ON WEDNESDAY PER
REGIONAL BLEND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NUMBERS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 181800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER WAVE WAS TRIGGERING A LARGE AREA OF RAIN THAT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR LAF AT NOON. THIS AREA WILL BRING VFR AND TEMPO
MVFR TO THE TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAFS.
THEN...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER 02Z WITH CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. LAF COULD HOLD ON TO SOME LAKE EFFECT VFR OR MVFR CU
UNTIL AFTER 06Z...AND COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOW STRATUS OR FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING. HOWEVER...NO CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO THROW LOW STRATUS OR FOG IN AT THE POINT.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR SO WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM
AFTER DARK.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....KOCH
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 181620
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1220 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 623 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON TEMPS BASED ON FALLING VALUES BEHIND
SHOWER LINE/TROUGH/FRONT...BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH OF AREA MAY BE THREATENED WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

PERSISTENT NARROW BAND OF SPRINKLES ON RADAR AT MOMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVER INDIANA FROM
GREAT LAKES TODAY. CURRENTLY LIGHT RAIN THREAT FROM IS FORECAST
AT LOCATIONS EAST OF A LAFAYETTE...INDY...SEYMOUR LINE. THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE BROADENED FURTHER WEST.

TEMPERATURES NOT GOING UP MUCH TODAY WITH DAYBREAK READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ON COOL NORTHWEST BREEZES. POTENTIAL ISSUE MAY
BE SUN TO BREAK OUT FOR A TIME BETWEEN CURRENT EAST-WEST BAND OVER
AREA AND NEXT BATCH WITH UPPER TROUGH. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCES BUT ANY SUNSHINE MAY LEAD TO WARMER GFS MOS BEING BETTER
CHOICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF 32 NOT OUT OF
QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. ONE ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT CLOUD DRIFTING INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER UPPER
TROUGH-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS EXIT. THESE LAKE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEPART BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AND LEAVE ENOUGH TIME FOR EARLY MORNING
FROST. MAJORITY OF FORECAST AREA WILL CLEAR AROUND DARK THIS
EVENING WITH EASTERN COUNTIES MAYBE AN HOUR LATER. CURRENT MIN
TEMPERATURES ON TARGET THOUGH HAVE COOLED SOUTHERN LOCATIONS A
DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THAT THEY WILL BE CLEAR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED AS WINDS DROP TO CALM AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT ON TOP OF INDIANA DAYBREAK
SUNDAY PRODUCING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
RECOVER FROM CHILLY START. WARM ADVECTION SOUTHWEST WIND BEGINS IN
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE QUICKLY DROPPING INTO
OUR REGION FROM CANADA. AGAIN HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODEL DATA FOR
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AND CURRENT VALUES WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR RAIN THREAT COVERAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAN TO GFS AND EURO MODELS
SHOWING SLIGHTLY GREATER RAIN COVERAGE BUT DOWNPLAY THE RAIN
AMOUNTS OF THESE MODELS KEEPING UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT
THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME
PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAYS SYSTEM...BUT WITH JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
40S. HAVE BLENDED MOS AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR TEMPS IN EACH OF
THESE PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BEGIN THE DAY TUESDAY THAT
AN UPPER WAVE COULD STILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THUS KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING OVER THE
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING THAT THE INITIALIZATION GAVE. AFTER THAT
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD AND BRINGS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE AREA AND THAT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT AS THE HIGH MOVES TO
THE EAST FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 181800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER WAVE WAS TRIGGERING A LARGE AREA OF RAIN THAT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR LAF AT NOON. THIS AREA WILL BRING VFR AND TEMPO
MVFR TO THE TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAFS.
THEN...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER 02Z WITH CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. LAF COULD HOLD ON TO SOME LAKE EFFECT VFR OR MVFR CU
UNTIL AFTER 06Z...AND COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOW STRATUS OR FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING. HOWEVER...NO CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO THROW LOW STRATUS OR FOG IN AT THE POINT.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR SO WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM
AFTER DARK.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 181620
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1220 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 623 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON TEMPS BASED ON FALLING VALUES BEHIND
SHOWER LINE/TROUGH/FRONT...BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH OF AREA MAY BE THREATENED WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

PERSISTENT NARROW BAND OF SPRINKLES ON RADAR AT MOMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVER INDIANA FROM
GREAT LAKES TODAY. CURRENTLY LIGHT RAIN THREAT FROM IS FORECAST
AT LOCATIONS EAST OF A LAFAYETTE...INDY...SEYMOUR LINE. THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE BROADENED FURTHER WEST.

TEMPERATURES NOT GOING UP MUCH TODAY WITH DAYBREAK READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ON COOL NORTHWEST BREEZES. POTENTIAL ISSUE MAY
BE SUN TO BREAK OUT FOR A TIME BETWEEN CURRENT EAST-WEST BAND OVER
AREA AND NEXT BATCH WITH UPPER TROUGH. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCES BUT ANY SUNSHINE MAY LEAD TO WARMER GFS MOS BEING BETTER
CHOICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF 32 NOT OUT OF
QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. ONE ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT CLOUD DRIFTING INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER UPPER
TROUGH-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS EXIT. THESE LAKE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEPART BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AND LEAVE ENOUGH TIME FOR EARLY MORNING
FROST. MAJORITY OF FORECAST AREA WILL CLEAR AROUND DARK THIS
EVENING WITH EASTERN COUNTIES MAYBE AN HOUR LATER. CURRENT MIN
TEMPERATURES ON TARGET THOUGH HAVE COOLED SOUTHERN LOCATIONS A
DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THAT THEY WILL BE CLEAR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED AS WINDS DROP TO CALM AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT ON TOP OF INDIANA DAYBREAK
SUNDAY PRODUCING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
RECOVER FROM CHILLY START. WARM ADVECTION SOUTHWEST WIND BEGINS IN
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE QUICKLY DROPPING INTO
OUR REGION FROM CANADA. AGAIN HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODEL DATA FOR
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AND CURRENT VALUES WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR RAIN THREAT COVERAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAN TO GFS AND EURO MODELS
SHOWING SLIGHTLY GREATER RAIN COVERAGE BUT DOWNPLAY THE RAIN
AMOUNTS OF THESE MODELS KEEPING UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT
THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME
PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAYS SYSTEM...BUT WITH JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
40S. HAVE BLENDED MOS AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR TEMPS IN EACH OF
THESE PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BEGIN THE DAY TUESDAY THAT
AN UPPER WAVE COULD STILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THUS KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING OVER THE
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING THAT THE INITIALIZATION GAVE. AFTER THAT
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD AND BRINGS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE AREA AND THAT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT AS THE HIGH MOVES TO
THE EAST FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 181800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER WAVE WAS TRIGGERING A LARGE AREA OF RAIN THAT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR LAF AT NOON. THIS AREA WILL BRING VFR AND TEMPO
MVFR TO THE TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAFS.
THEN...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER 02Z WITH CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. LAF COULD HOLD ON TO SOME LAKE EFFECT VFR OR MVFR CU
UNTIL AFTER 06Z...AND COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOW STRATUS OR FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING. HOWEVER...NO CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO THROW LOW STRATUS OR FOG IN AT THE POINT.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR SO WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM
AFTER DARK.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 181419
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1019 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 623 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON TEMPS BASED ON FALLING VALUES BEHIND
SHOWER LINE/TROUGH/FRONT...BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH OF AREA MAY BE THREATENED WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

PERSISTENT NARROW BAND OF SPRINKLES ON RADAR AT MOMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVER INDIANA FROM
GREAT LAKES TODAY. CURRENTLY LIGHT RAIN THREAT FROM IS FORECAST
AT LOCATIONS EAST OF A LAFAYETTE...INDY...SEYMOUR LINE. THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE BROADENED FURTHER WEST.

TEMPERATURES NOT GOING UP MUCH TODAY WITH DAYBREAK READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ON COOL NORTHWEST BREEZES. POTENTIAL ISSUE MAY
BE SUN TO BREAK OUT FOR A TIME BETWEEN CURRENT EAST-WEST BAND OVER
AREA AND NEXT BATCH WITH UPPER TROUGH. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCES BUT ANY SUNSHINE MAY LEAD TO WARMER GFS MOS BEING BETTER
CHOICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF 32 NOT OUT OF
QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. ONE ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT CLOUD DRIFTING INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER UPPER
TROUGH-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS EXIT. THESE LAKE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEPART BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AND LEAVE ENOUGH TIME FOR EARLY MORNING
FROST. MAJORITY OF FORECAST AREA WILL CLEAR AROUND DARK THIS
EVENING WITH EASTERN COUNTIES MAYBE AN HOUR LATER. CURRENT MIN
TEMPERATURES ON TARGET THOUGH HAVE COOLED SOUTHERN LOCATIONS A
DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THAT THEY WILL BE CLEAR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED AS WINDS DROP TO CALM AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT ON TOP OF INDIANA DAYBREAK
SUNDAY PRODUCING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
RECOVER FROM CHILLY START. WARM ADVECTION SOUTHWEST WIND BEGINS IN
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE QUICKLY DROPPING INTO
OUR REGION FROM CANADA. AGAIN HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODEL DATA FOR
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AND CURRENT VALUES WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR RAIN THREAT COVERAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAN TO GFS AND EURO MODELS
SHOWING SLIGHTLY GREATER RAIN COVERAGE BUT DOWNPLAY THE RAIN
AMOUNTS OF THESE MODELS KEEPING UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT
THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME
PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAYS SYSTEM...BUT WITH JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
40S. HAVE BLENDED MOS AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR TEMPS IN EACH OF
THESE PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BEGIN THE DAY TUESDAY THAT
AN UPPER WAVE COULD STILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THUS KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING OVER THE
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING THAT THE INITIALIZATION GAVE. AFTER THAT
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD AND BRINGS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE AREA AND THAT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT AS THE HIGH MOVES TO
THE EAST FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 181500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

LOOKING AT SATELLITE AND UPSTREAM OBS COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF VFR
THIS MORNING. THINK MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN WITH WAVE MOVING
THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE COULD ALSO BRING
SOME SHOWERS TO KIND AND KLAF BASED ON LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR. KBMG
AND KHUF ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AS THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE WAVE.
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS OR SO ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT BUT HAVE MORE
UNCERTAINTY IF THIS WILL RESULT IN FOG OR LOW CEILINGS OR NEITHER.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 181418
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
918 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 623 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON TEMPS BASED ON FALLING VALUES BEHIND
SHOWER LINE/TROUGH/FRONT...BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH OF AREA MAY BE THREATENED WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

PERSISTENT NARROW BAND OF SPRINKLES ON RADAR AT MOMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVER INDIANA FROM
GREAT LAKES TODAY. CURRENTLY LIGHT RAIN THREAT FROM IS FORECAST
AT LOCATIONS EAST OF A LAFAYETTE...INDY...SEYMOUR LINE. THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE BROADENED FURTHER WEST.

TEMPERATURES NOT GOING UP MUCH TODAY WITH DAYBREAK READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ON COOL NORTHWEST BREEZES. POTENTIAL ISSUE MAY
BE SUN TO BREAK OUT FOR A TIME BETWEEN CURRENT EAST-WEST BAND OVER
AREA AND NEXT BATCH WITH UPPER TROUGH. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCES BUT ANY SUNSHINE MAY LEAD TO WARMER GFS MOS BEING BETTER
CHOICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF 32 NOT OUT OF
QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. ONE ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT CLOUD DRIFTING INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER UPPER
TROUGH-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS EXIT. THESE LAKE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEPART BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AND LEAVE ENOUGH TIME FOR EARLY MORNING
FROST. MAJORITY OF FORECAST AREA WILL CLEAR AROUND DARK THIS
EVENING WITH EASTERN COUNTIES MAYBE AN HOUR LATER. CURRENT MIN
TEMPERATURES ON TARGET THOUGH HAVE COOLED SOUTHERN LOCATIONS A
DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THAT THEY WILL BE CLEAR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED AS WINDS DROP TO CALM AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT ON TOP OF INDIANA DAYBREAK
SUNDAY PRODUCING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
RECOVER FROM CHILLY START. WARM ADVECTION SOUTHWEST WIND BEGINS IN
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE QUICKLY DROPPING INTO
OUR REGION FROM CANADA. AGAIN HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODEL DATA FOR
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AND CURRENT VALUES WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR RAIN THREAT COVERAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAN TO GFS AND EURO MODELS
SHOWING SLIGHTLY GREATER RAIN COVERAGE BUT DOWNPLAY THE RAIN
AMOUNTS OF THESE MODELS KEEPING UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT
THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME
PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAYS SYSTEM...BUT WITH JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
40S. HAVE BLENDED MOS AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR TEMPS IN EACH OF
THESE PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BEGIN THE DAY TUESDAY THAT
AN UPPER WAVE COULD STILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THUS KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING OVER THE
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING THAT THE INITIALIZATION GAVE. AFTER THAT
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD AND BRINGS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE AREA AND THAT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT AS THE HIGH MOVES TO
THE EAST FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 181500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

LOOKING AT SATELLITE AND UPSTREAM OBS COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF VFR
THIS MORNING. THINK MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN WITH WAVE MOVING
THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE COULD ALSO BRING
SOME SHOWERS TO KIND AND KLAF BASED ON LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR. KBMG
AND KHUF ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AS THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE WAVE.
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS OR SO ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT BUT HAVE MORE
UNCERTAINTY IF THIS WILL RESULT IN FOG OR LOW CEILINGS OR NEITHER.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...TDUD/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 181418
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
918 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 623 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON TEMPS BASED ON FALLING VALUES BEHIND
SHOWER LINE/TROUGH/FRONT...BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH OF AREA MAY BE THREATENED WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

PERSISTENT NARROW BAND OF SPRINKLES ON RADAR AT MOMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVER INDIANA FROM
GREAT LAKES TODAY. CURRENTLY LIGHT RAIN THREAT FROM IS FORECAST
AT LOCATIONS EAST OF A LAFAYETTE...INDY...SEYMOUR LINE. THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE BROADENED FURTHER WEST.

TEMPERATURES NOT GOING UP MUCH TODAY WITH DAYBREAK READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ON COOL NORTHWEST BREEZES. POTENTIAL ISSUE MAY
BE SUN TO BREAK OUT FOR A TIME BETWEEN CURRENT EAST-WEST BAND OVER
AREA AND NEXT BATCH WITH UPPER TROUGH. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCES BUT ANY SUNSHINE MAY LEAD TO WARMER GFS MOS BEING BETTER
CHOICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF 32 NOT OUT OF
QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. ONE ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT CLOUD DRIFTING INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER UPPER
TROUGH-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS EXIT. THESE LAKE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEPART BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AND LEAVE ENOUGH TIME FOR EARLY MORNING
FROST. MAJORITY OF FORECAST AREA WILL CLEAR AROUND DARK THIS
EVENING WITH EASTERN COUNTIES MAYBE AN HOUR LATER. CURRENT MIN
TEMPERATURES ON TARGET THOUGH HAVE COOLED SOUTHERN LOCATIONS A
DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THAT THEY WILL BE CLEAR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED AS WINDS DROP TO CALM AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT ON TOP OF INDIANA DAYBREAK
SUNDAY PRODUCING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
RECOVER FROM CHILLY START. WARM ADVECTION SOUTHWEST WIND BEGINS IN
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE QUICKLY DROPPING INTO
OUR REGION FROM CANADA. AGAIN HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODEL DATA FOR
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AND CURRENT VALUES WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR RAIN THREAT COVERAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAN TO GFS AND EURO MODELS
SHOWING SLIGHTLY GREATER RAIN COVERAGE BUT DOWNPLAY THE RAIN
AMOUNTS OF THESE MODELS KEEPING UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT
THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME
PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAYS SYSTEM...BUT WITH JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
40S. HAVE BLENDED MOS AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR TEMPS IN EACH OF
THESE PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BEGIN THE DAY TUESDAY THAT
AN UPPER WAVE COULD STILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THUS KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING OVER THE
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING THAT THE INITIALIZATION GAVE. AFTER THAT
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD AND BRINGS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE AREA AND THAT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT AS THE HIGH MOVES TO
THE EAST FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 181500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

LOOKING AT SATELLITE AND UPSTREAM OBS COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF VFR
THIS MORNING. THINK MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN WITH WAVE MOVING
THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE COULD ALSO BRING
SOME SHOWERS TO KIND AND KLAF BASED ON LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR. KBMG
AND KHUF ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AS THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE WAVE.
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS OR SO ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT BUT HAVE MORE
UNCERTAINTY IF THIS WILL RESULT IN FOG OR LOW CEILINGS OR NEITHER.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...TDUD/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 181045
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
645 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 623 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON TEMPS BASED ON FALLING VALUES BEHIND
SHOWER LINE/TROUGH/FRONT...BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH OF AREA MAY BE THREATENED WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

PERSISTENT NARROW BAND OF SPRINKLES ON RADAR AT MOMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVER INDIANA FROM
GREAT LAKES TODAY. CURRENTLY LIGHT RAIN THREAT FROM IS FORECAST
AT LOCATIONS EAST OF A LAFAYETTE...INDY...SEYMOUR LINE. THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE BROADENED FURTHER WEST.

TEMPERATURES NOT GOING UP MUCH TODAY WITH DAYBREAK READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ON COOL NORTHWEST BREEZES. POTENTIAL ISSUE MAY
BE SUN TO BREAK OUT FOR A TIME BETWEEN CURRENT EAST-WEST BAND OVER
AREA AND NEXT BATCH WITH UPPER TROUGH. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCES BUT ANY SUNSHINE MAY LEAD TO WARMER GFS MOS BEING BETTER
CHOICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF 32 NOT OUT OF
QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. ONE ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT CLOUD DRIFTING INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER UPPER
TROUGH-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS EXIT. THESE LAKE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEPART BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AND LEAVE ENOUGH TIME FOR EARLY MORNING
FROST. MAJORITY OF FORECAST AREA WILL CLEAR AROUND DARK THIS
EVENING WITH EASTERN COUNTIES MAYBE AN HOUR LATER. CURRENT MIN
TEMPERATURES ON TARGET THOUGH HAVE COOLED SOUTHERN LOCATIONS A
DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THAT THEY WILL BE CLEAR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED AS WINDS DROP TO CALM AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT ON TOP OF INDIANA DAYBREAK
SUNDAY PRODUCING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
RECOVER FROM CHILLY START. WARM ADVECTION SOUTHWEST WIND BEGINS IN
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE QUICKLY DROPPING INTO
OUR REGION FROM CANADA. AGAIN HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODEL DATA FOR
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AND CURRENT VALUES WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR RAIN THREAT COVERAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAN TO GFS AND EURO MODELS
SHOWING SLIGHTLY GREATER RAIN COVERAGE BUT DOWNPLAY THE RAIN
AMOUNTS OF THESE MODELS KEEPING UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT
THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME
PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAYS SYSTEM...BUT WITH JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
40S. HAVE BLENDED MOS AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR TEMPS IN EACH OF
THESE PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BEGIN THE DAY TUESDAY THAT
AN UPPER WAVE COULD STILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THUS KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING OVER THE
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING THAT THE INITIALIZATION GAVE. AFTER THAT
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD AND BRINGS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE AREA AND THAT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT AS THE HIGH MOVES TO
THE EAST FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 181200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 643 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOOKING AT SATELLITE AND UPSTREAM OBS COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF VFR
THIS MORNING. THINK MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN WITH WAVE MOVING
THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE COULD ALSO BRING
SOME SHOWERS TO KIND AND KLAF BASED ON LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR. KBMG
AND KHUF ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AS THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE WAVE.
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS OR SO ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT BUT HAVE MORE
UNCERTAINTY IF THIS WILL RESULT IN FOG OR LOW CEILINGS OR NEITHER.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 181045
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
645 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 623 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON TEMPS BASED ON FALLING VALUES BEHIND
SHOWER LINE/TROUGH/FRONT...BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH OF AREA MAY BE THREATENED WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

PERSISTENT NARROW BAND OF SPRINKLES ON RADAR AT MOMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVER INDIANA FROM
GREAT LAKES TODAY. CURRENTLY LIGHT RAIN THREAT FROM IS FORECAST
AT LOCATIONS EAST OF A LAFAYETTE...INDY...SEYMOUR LINE. THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE BROADENED FURTHER WEST.

TEMPERATURES NOT GOING UP MUCH TODAY WITH DAYBREAK READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ON COOL NORTHWEST BREEZES. POTENTIAL ISSUE MAY
BE SUN TO BREAK OUT FOR A TIME BETWEEN CURRENT EAST-WEST BAND OVER
AREA AND NEXT BATCH WITH UPPER TROUGH. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCES BUT ANY SUNSHINE MAY LEAD TO WARMER GFS MOS BEING BETTER
CHOICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF 32 NOT OUT OF
QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. ONE ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT CLOUD DRIFTING INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER UPPER
TROUGH-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS EXIT. THESE LAKE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEPART BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AND LEAVE ENOUGH TIME FOR EARLY MORNING
FROST. MAJORITY OF FORECAST AREA WILL CLEAR AROUND DARK THIS
EVENING WITH EASTERN COUNTIES MAYBE AN HOUR LATER. CURRENT MIN
TEMPERATURES ON TARGET THOUGH HAVE COOLED SOUTHERN LOCATIONS A
DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THAT THEY WILL BE CLEAR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED AS WINDS DROP TO CALM AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT ON TOP OF INDIANA DAYBREAK
SUNDAY PRODUCING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
RECOVER FROM CHILLY START. WARM ADVECTION SOUTHWEST WIND BEGINS IN
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE QUICKLY DROPPING INTO
OUR REGION FROM CANADA. AGAIN HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODEL DATA FOR
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AND CURRENT VALUES WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR RAIN THREAT COVERAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAN TO GFS AND EURO MODELS
SHOWING SLIGHTLY GREATER RAIN COVERAGE BUT DOWNPLAY THE RAIN
AMOUNTS OF THESE MODELS KEEPING UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT
THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME
PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAYS SYSTEM...BUT WITH JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
40S. HAVE BLENDED MOS AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR TEMPS IN EACH OF
THESE PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BEGIN THE DAY TUESDAY THAT
AN UPPER WAVE COULD STILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THUS KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING OVER THE
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING THAT THE INITIALIZATION GAVE. AFTER THAT
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD AND BRINGS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE AREA AND THAT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT AS THE HIGH MOVES TO
THE EAST FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 181200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 643 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOOKING AT SATELLITE AND UPSTREAM OBS COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF VFR
THIS MORNING. THINK MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN WITH WAVE MOVING
THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE COULD ALSO BRING
SOME SHOWERS TO KIND AND KLAF BASED ON LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR. KBMG
AND KHUF ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AS THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE WAVE.
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS OR SO ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT BUT HAVE MORE
UNCERTAINTY IF THIS WILL RESULT IN FOG OR LOW CEILINGS OR NEITHER.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 181045
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
645 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 623 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON TEMPS BASED ON FALLING VALUES BEHIND
SHOWER LINE/TROUGH/FRONT...BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH OF AREA MAY BE THREATENED WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

PERSISTENT NARROW BAND OF SPRINKLES ON RADAR AT MOMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVER INDIANA FROM
GREAT LAKES TODAY. CURRENTLY LIGHT RAIN THREAT FROM IS FORECAST
AT LOCATIONS EAST OF A LAFAYETTE...INDY...SEYMOUR LINE. THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE BROADENED FURTHER WEST.

TEMPERATURES NOT GOING UP MUCH TODAY WITH DAYBREAK READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ON COOL NORTHWEST BREEZES. POTENTIAL ISSUE MAY
BE SUN TO BREAK OUT FOR A TIME BETWEEN CURRENT EAST-WEST BAND OVER
AREA AND NEXT BATCH WITH UPPER TROUGH. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCES BUT ANY SUNSHINE MAY LEAD TO WARMER GFS MOS BEING BETTER
CHOICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF 32 NOT OUT OF
QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. ONE ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT CLOUD DRIFTING INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER UPPER
TROUGH-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS EXIT. THESE LAKE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEPART BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AND LEAVE ENOUGH TIME FOR EARLY MORNING
FROST. MAJORITY OF FORECAST AREA WILL CLEAR AROUND DARK THIS
EVENING WITH EASTERN COUNTIES MAYBE AN HOUR LATER. CURRENT MIN
TEMPERATURES ON TARGET THOUGH HAVE COOLED SOUTHERN LOCATIONS A
DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THAT THEY WILL BE CLEAR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED AS WINDS DROP TO CALM AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT ON TOP OF INDIANA DAYBREAK
SUNDAY PRODUCING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
RECOVER FROM CHILLY START. WARM ADVECTION SOUTHWEST WIND BEGINS IN
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE QUICKLY DROPPING INTO
OUR REGION FROM CANADA. AGAIN HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODEL DATA FOR
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AND CURRENT VALUES WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR RAIN THREAT COVERAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAN TO GFS AND EURO MODELS
SHOWING SLIGHTLY GREATER RAIN COVERAGE BUT DOWNPLAY THE RAIN
AMOUNTS OF THESE MODELS KEEPING UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT
THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME
PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAYS SYSTEM...BUT WITH JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
40S. HAVE BLENDED MOS AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR TEMPS IN EACH OF
THESE PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BEGIN THE DAY TUESDAY THAT
AN UPPER WAVE COULD STILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THUS KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING OVER THE
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING THAT THE INITIALIZATION GAVE. AFTER THAT
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD AND BRINGS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE AREA AND THAT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT AS THE HIGH MOVES TO
THE EAST FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 181200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 643 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOOKING AT SATELLITE AND UPSTREAM OBS COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF VFR
THIS MORNING. THINK MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN WITH WAVE MOVING
THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE COULD ALSO BRING
SOME SHOWERS TO KIND AND KLAF BASED ON LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR. KBMG
AND KHUF ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AS THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE WAVE.
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS OR SO ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT BUT HAVE MORE
UNCERTAINTY IF THIS WILL RESULT IN FOG OR LOW CEILINGS OR NEITHER.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 181045
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
645 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 623 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON TEMPS BASED ON FALLING VALUES BEHIND
SHOWER LINE/TROUGH/FRONT...BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH OF AREA MAY BE THREATENED WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

PERSISTENT NARROW BAND OF SPRINKLES ON RADAR AT MOMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVER INDIANA FROM
GREAT LAKES TODAY. CURRENTLY LIGHT RAIN THREAT FROM IS FORECAST
AT LOCATIONS EAST OF A LAFAYETTE...INDY...SEYMOUR LINE. THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE BROADENED FURTHER WEST.

TEMPERATURES NOT GOING UP MUCH TODAY WITH DAYBREAK READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ON COOL NORTHWEST BREEZES. POTENTIAL ISSUE MAY
BE SUN TO BREAK OUT FOR A TIME BETWEEN CURRENT EAST-WEST BAND OVER
AREA AND NEXT BATCH WITH UPPER TROUGH. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCES BUT ANY SUNSHINE MAY LEAD TO WARMER GFS MOS BEING BETTER
CHOICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF 32 NOT OUT OF
QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. ONE ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT CLOUD DRIFTING INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER UPPER
TROUGH-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS EXIT. THESE LAKE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEPART BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AND LEAVE ENOUGH TIME FOR EARLY MORNING
FROST. MAJORITY OF FORECAST AREA WILL CLEAR AROUND DARK THIS
EVENING WITH EASTERN COUNTIES MAYBE AN HOUR LATER. CURRENT MIN
TEMPERATURES ON TARGET THOUGH HAVE COOLED SOUTHERN LOCATIONS A
DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THAT THEY WILL BE CLEAR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED AS WINDS DROP TO CALM AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT ON TOP OF INDIANA DAYBREAK
SUNDAY PRODUCING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
RECOVER FROM CHILLY START. WARM ADVECTION SOUTHWEST WIND BEGINS IN
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE QUICKLY DROPPING INTO
OUR REGION FROM CANADA. AGAIN HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODEL DATA FOR
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AND CURRENT VALUES WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR RAIN THREAT COVERAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAN TO GFS AND EURO MODELS
SHOWING SLIGHTLY GREATER RAIN COVERAGE BUT DOWNPLAY THE RAIN
AMOUNTS OF THESE MODELS KEEPING UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT
THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME
PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAYS SYSTEM...BUT WITH JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
40S. HAVE BLENDED MOS AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR TEMPS IN EACH OF
THESE PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BEGIN THE DAY TUESDAY THAT
AN UPPER WAVE COULD STILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THUS KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING OVER THE
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING THAT THE INITIALIZATION GAVE. AFTER THAT
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD AND BRINGS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE AREA AND THAT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT AS THE HIGH MOVES TO
THE EAST FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 181200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 643 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOOKING AT SATELLITE AND UPSTREAM OBS COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF VFR
THIS MORNING. THINK MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN WITH WAVE MOVING
THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE COULD ALSO BRING
SOME SHOWERS TO KIND AND KLAF BASED ON LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR. KBMG
AND KHUF ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AS THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE WAVE.
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS OR SO ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT BUT HAVE MORE
UNCERTAINTY IF THIS WILL RESULT IN FOG OR LOW CEILINGS OR NEITHER.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 181027
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
627 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 623 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON TEMPS BASED ON FALLING VALUES BEHIND
SHOWER LINE/TROUGH/FRONT...BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH OF AREA MAY BE THREATENED WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

PERSISTENT NARROW BAND OF SPRINKLES ON RADAR AT MOMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVER INDIANA FROM
GREAT LAKES TODAY. CURRENTLY LIGHT RAIN THREAT FROM IS FORECAST
AT LOCATIONS EAST OF A LAFAYETTE...INDY...SEYMOUR LINE. THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE BROADENED FURTHER WEST.

TEMPERATURES NOT GOING UP MUCH TODAY WITH DAYBREAK READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ON COOL NORTHWEST BREEZES. POTENTIAL ISSUE MAY
BE SUN TO BREAK OUT FOR A TIME BETWEEN CURRENT EAST-WEST BAND OVER
AREA AND NEXT BATCH WITH UPPER TROUGH. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCES BUT ANY SUNSHINE MAY LEAD TO WARMER GFS MOS BEING BETTER
CHOICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF 32 NOT OUT OF
QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. ONE ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT CLOUD DRIFTING INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER UPPER
TROUGH-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS EXIT. THESE LAKE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEPART BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AND LEAVE ENOUGH TIME FOR EARLY MORNING
FROST. MAJORITY OF FORECAST AREA WILL CLEAR AROUND DARK THIS
EVENING WITH EASTERN COUNTIES MAYBE AN HOUR LATER. CURRENT MIN
TEMPERATURES ON TARGET THOUGH HAVE COOLED SOUTHERN LOCATIONS A
DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THAT THEY WILL BE CLEAR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED AS WINDS DROP TO CALM AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT ON TOP OF INDIANA DAYBREAK
SUNDAY PRODUCING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
RECOVER FROM CHILLY START. WARM ADVECTION SOUTHWEST WIND BEGINS IN
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE QUICKLY DROPPING INTO
OUR REGION FROM CANADA. AGAIN HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODEL DATA FOR
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AND CURRENT VALUES WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR RAIN THREAT COVERAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAN TO GFS AND EURO MODELS
SHOWING SLIGHTLY GREATER RAIN COVERAGE BUT DOWNPLAY THE RAIN
AMOUNTS OF THESE MODELS KEEPING UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT
THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME
PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAYS SYSTEM...BUT WITH JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
40S. HAVE BLENDED MOS AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR TEMPS IN EACH OF
THESE PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BEGIN THE DAY TUESDAY THAT
AN UPPER WAVE COULD STILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THUS KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING OVER THE
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING THAT THE INITIALIZATION GAVE. AFTER THAT
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD AND BRINGS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE AREA AND THAT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT AS THE HIGH MOVES TO
THE EAST FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180900Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...MOVED UP THE TIMING OF MVFR CEILINGS TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. SOME INDICATIONS IN SATELLITE OBS THAT
CEILINGS COULD BOUNCE A BIT BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR BUT OVERALL THINK
PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT AND UNTIL AT LEAST MID MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

EXTENSIVE CEILINGS AROUND 040 CURRENTLY OVER THE TAF SITES...WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS 025-030 PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THESE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING
THE PRE DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY...REACHING KBMG NEAR SUNRISE. THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP THESE LOWER CEILINGS AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 290-310 DEGREES AT 7-11 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER TOWARDS 320-340 WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
15 KTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 181027
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
627 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 623 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON TEMPS BASED ON FALLING VALUES BEHIND
SHOWER LINE/TROUGH/FRONT...BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH OF AREA MAY BE THREATENED WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

PERSISTENT NARROW BAND OF SPRINKLES ON RADAR AT MOMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVER INDIANA FROM
GREAT LAKES TODAY. CURRENTLY LIGHT RAIN THREAT FROM IS FORECAST
AT LOCATIONS EAST OF A LAFAYETTE...INDY...SEYMOUR LINE. THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE BROADENED FURTHER WEST.

TEMPERATURES NOT GOING UP MUCH TODAY WITH DAYBREAK READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ON COOL NORTHWEST BREEZES. POTENTIAL ISSUE MAY
BE SUN TO BREAK OUT FOR A TIME BETWEEN CURRENT EAST-WEST BAND OVER
AREA AND NEXT BATCH WITH UPPER TROUGH. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCES BUT ANY SUNSHINE MAY LEAD TO WARMER GFS MOS BEING BETTER
CHOICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF 32 NOT OUT OF
QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. ONE ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT CLOUD DRIFTING INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER UPPER
TROUGH-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS EXIT. THESE LAKE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEPART BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AND LEAVE ENOUGH TIME FOR EARLY MORNING
FROST. MAJORITY OF FORECAST AREA WILL CLEAR AROUND DARK THIS
EVENING WITH EASTERN COUNTIES MAYBE AN HOUR LATER. CURRENT MIN
TEMPERATURES ON TARGET THOUGH HAVE COOLED SOUTHERN LOCATIONS A
DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THAT THEY WILL BE CLEAR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED AS WINDS DROP TO CALM AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT ON TOP OF INDIANA DAYBREAK
SUNDAY PRODUCING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
RECOVER FROM CHILLY START. WARM ADVECTION SOUTHWEST WIND BEGINS IN
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE QUICKLY DROPPING INTO
OUR REGION FROM CANADA. AGAIN HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODEL DATA FOR
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AND CURRENT VALUES WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR RAIN THREAT COVERAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAN TO GFS AND EURO MODELS
SHOWING SLIGHTLY GREATER RAIN COVERAGE BUT DOWNPLAY THE RAIN
AMOUNTS OF THESE MODELS KEEPING UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT
THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME
PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAYS SYSTEM...BUT WITH JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
40S. HAVE BLENDED MOS AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR TEMPS IN EACH OF
THESE PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BEGIN THE DAY TUESDAY THAT
AN UPPER WAVE COULD STILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THUS KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING OVER THE
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING THAT THE INITIALIZATION GAVE. AFTER THAT
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD AND BRINGS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE AREA AND THAT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT AS THE HIGH MOVES TO
THE EAST FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180900Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...MOVED UP THE TIMING OF MVFR CEILINGS TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. SOME INDICATIONS IN SATELLITE OBS THAT
CEILINGS COULD BOUNCE A BIT BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR BUT OVERALL THINK
PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT AND UNTIL AT LEAST MID MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

EXTENSIVE CEILINGS AROUND 040 CURRENTLY OVER THE TAF SITES...WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS 025-030 PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THESE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING
THE PRE DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY...REACHING KBMG NEAR SUNRISE. THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP THESE LOWER CEILINGS AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 290-310 DEGREES AT 7-11 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER TOWARDS 320-340 WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
15 KTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 180828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CONCERNS FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH OF AREA MAY BE THREATENED WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

PERSISTENT NARROW BAND OF SPRINKLES ON RADAR AT MOMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVER INDIANA FROM
GREAT LAKES TODAY. CURRENTLY LIGHT RAIN THREAT FROM IS FORECAST
AT LOCATIONS EAST OF A LAFAYETTE...INDY...SEYMOUR LINE. THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE BROADENED FURTHER WEST.

TEMPERATURES NOT GOING UP MUCH TODAY WITH DAYBREAK READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ON COOL NORTHWEST BREEZES. POTENTIAL ISSUE MAY
BE SUN TO BREAK OUT FOR A TIME BETWEEN CURRENT EAST-WEST BAND OVER
AREA AND NEXT BATCH WITH UPPER TROUGH. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCES BUT ANY SUNSHINE MAY LEAD TO WARMER GFS MOS BEING BETTER
CHOICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF 32 NOT OUT OF
QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. ONE ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT CLOUD DRIFTING INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER UPPER
TROUGH-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS EXIT. THESE LAKE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEPART BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AND LEAVE ENOUGH TIME FOR EARLY MORNING
FROST. MAJORITY OF FORECAST AREA WILL CLEAR AROUND DARK THIS
EVENING WITH EASTERN COUNTIES MAYBE AN HOUR LATER. CURRENT MIN
TEMPERATURES ON TARGET THOUGH HAVE COOLED SOUTHERN LOCATIONS A
DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THAT THEY WILL BE CLEAR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED AS WINDS DROP TO CALM AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT ON TOP OF INDIANA DAYBREAK
SUNDAY PRODUCING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
RECOVER FROM CHILLY START. WARM ADVECTION SOUTHWEST WIND BEGINS IN
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE QUICKLY DROPPING INTO
OUR REGION FROM CANADA. AGAIN HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODEL DATA FOR
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AND CURRENT VALUES WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR RAIN THREAT COVERAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAN TO GFS AND EURO MODELS
SHOWING SLIGHTLY GREATER RAIN COVERAGE BUT DOWNPLAY THE RAIN
AMOUNTS OF THESE MODELS KEEPING UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT
THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME
PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAYS SYSTEM...BUT WITH JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
40S. HAVE BLENDED MOS AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR TEMPS IN EACH OF
THESE PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BEGIN THE DAY TUESDAY THAT
AN UPPER WAVE COULD STILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THUS KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING OVER THE
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING THAT THE INITIALIZATION GAVE. AFTER THAT
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD AND BRINGS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE AREA AND THAT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT AS THE HIGH MOVES TO
THE EAST FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180900Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...MOVED UP THE TIMING OF MVFR CEILINGS TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. SOME INDICATIONS IN SATELLITE OBS THAT
CEILINGS COULD BOUNCE A BIT BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR BUT OVERALL THINK
PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT AND UNTIL AT LEAST MID MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

EXTENSIVE CEILINGS AROUND 040 CURRENTLY OVER THE TAF SITES...WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS 025-030 PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THESE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING
THE PRE DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY...REACHING KBMG NEAR SUNRISE. THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP THESE LOWER CEILINGS AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 290-310 DEGREES AT 7-11 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER TOWARDS 320-340 WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
15 KTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 180828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CONCERNS FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH OF AREA MAY BE THREATENED WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

PERSISTENT NARROW BAND OF SPRINKLES ON RADAR AT MOMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVER INDIANA FROM
GREAT LAKES TODAY. CURRENTLY LIGHT RAIN THREAT FROM IS FORECAST
AT LOCATIONS EAST OF A LAFAYETTE...INDY...SEYMOUR LINE. THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE BROADENED FURTHER WEST.

TEMPERATURES NOT GOING UP MUCH TODAY WITH DAYBREAK READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ON COOL NORTHWEST BREEZES. POTENTIAL ISSUE MAY
BE SUN TO BREAK OUT FOR A TIME BETWEEN CURRENT EAST-WEST BAND OVER
AREA AND NEXT BATCH WITH UPPER TROUGH. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCES BUT ANY SUNSHINE MAY LEAD TO WARMER GFS MOS BEING BETTER
CHOICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF 32 NOT OUT OF
QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. ONE ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT CLOUD DRIFTING INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER UPPER
TROUGH-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS EXIT. THESE LAKE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEPART BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AND LEAVE ENOUGH TIME FOR EARLY MORNING
FROST. MAJORITY OF FORECAST AREA WILL CLEAR AROUND DARK THIS
EVENING WITH EASTERN COUNTIES MAYBE AN HOUR LATER. CURRENT MIN
TEMPERATURES ON TARGET THOUGH HAVE COOLED SOUTHERN LOCATIONS A
DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THAT THEY WILL BE CLEAR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED AS WINDS DROP TO CALM AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT ON TOP OF INDIANA DAYBREAK
SUNDAY PRODUCING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
RECOVER FROM CHILLY START. WARM ADVECTION SOUTHWEST WIND BEGINS IN
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE QUICKLY DROPPING INTO
OUR REGION FROM CANADA. AGAIN HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODEL DATA FOR
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AND CURRENT VALUES WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR RAIN THREAT COVERAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAN TO GFS AND EURO MODELS
SHOWING SLIGHTLY GREATER RAIN COVERAGE BUT DOWNPLAY THE RAIN
AMOUNTS OF THESE MODELS KEEPING UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT
THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME
PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAYS SYSTEM...BUT WITH JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
40S. HAVE BLENDED MOS AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR TEMPS IN EACH OF
THESE PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BEGIN THE DAY TUESDAY THAT
AN UPPER WAVE COULD STILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THUS KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING OVER THE
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING THAT THE INITIALIZATION GAVE. AFTER THAT
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD AND BRINGS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE AREA AND THAT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT AS THE HIGH MOVES TO
THE EAST FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180900Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...MOVED UP THE TIMING OF MVFR CEILINGS TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. SOME INDICATIONS IN SATELLITE OBS THAT
CEILINGS COULD BOUNCE A BIT BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR BUT OVERALL THINK
PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT AND UNTIL AT LEAST MID MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

EXTENSIVE CEILINGS AROUND 040 CURRENTLY OVER THE TAF SITES...WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS 025-030 PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THESE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING
THE PRE DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY...REACHING KBMG NEAR SUNRISE. THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP THESE LOWER CEILINGS AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 290-310 DEGREES AT 7-11 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER TOWARDS 320-340 WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
15 KTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 180752
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
352 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CONCERNS FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH OF AREA MAY BE THREATENED WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

PERSISTENT NARROW BAND OF SPRINKLES ON RADAR AT MOMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVER INDIANA FROM
GREAT LAKES TODAY. CURRENTLY LIGHT RAIN THREAT FROM IS FORECAST
AT LOCATIONS EAST OF A LAFAYETTE...INDY...SEYMOUR LINE. THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE BROADENED FURTHER WEST.

TEMPERATURES NOT GOING UP MUCH TODAY WITH DAYBREAK READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ON COOL NORTHWEST BREEZES. POTENTIAL ISSUE MAY
BE SUN TO BREAK OUT FOR A TIME BETWEEN CURRENT EAST-WEST BAND OVER
AREA AND NEXT BATCH WITH UPPER TROUGH. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCES BUT ANY SUNSHINE MAY LEAD TO WARMER GFS MOS BEING BETTER CHOICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF 32 NOT OUT OF
QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. ONE ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT CLOUD DRIFTING INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER UPPER
TROUGH-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS EXIT. THESE LAKE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEPART BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AND LEAVE ENOUGH TIME FOR EARLY MORNING
FROST. MAJORITY OF FORECAST AREA WILL CLEAR AROUND DARK THIS
EVENING WITH EASTERN COUNTIES MAYBE AN HOUR LATER. CURRENT MIN
TEMPERATURES ON TARGET THOUGH HAVE COOLED SOUTHERN LOCATIONS A
DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THAT THEY WILL BE CLEAR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED AS WINDS DROP TO CALM AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT ON TOP OF INDIANA DAYBREAK
SUNDAY PRODUCING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
RECOVER FROM CHILLY START. WARM ADVECTION SOUTHWEST WIND BEGINS IN
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE QUICKLY DROPPING INTO
OUR REGION FROM CANADA. AGAIN HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODEL DATA FOR
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AND CURRENT VALUES WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR RAIN THREAT COVERAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAN TO GFS AND EURO MODELS
SHOWING SLIGHTLY GREATER RAIN COVERAGE BUT DOWNPLAY THE RAIN
AMOUNTS OF THESE MODELS KEEPING UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT
THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME
PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAYS SYSTEM...BUT WITH JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
40S. HAVE BLENDED MOS AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR TEMPS IN EACH OF
THESE PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BEGIN THE DAY TUESDAY THAT
AN UPPER WAVE COULD STILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THUS KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING OVER THE
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING THAT THE INITIALIZATION GAVE. AFTER THAT
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD AND BRINGS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE AREA AND THAT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT AS THE HIGH MOVES TO
THE EAST FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

EXTENSIVE CEILINGS AROUND 040 CURRENTLY OVER THE TAF SITES...WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS 025-030 PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THESE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING
THE PRE DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY...REACHING KBMG NEAR SUNRISE. THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP THESE LOWER CEILINGS AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 290-310 DEGREES AT 7-11 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER TOWARDS 320-340 WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
15 KTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 180752
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
352 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CONCERNS FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH OF AREA MAY BE THREATENED WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

PERSISTENT NARROW BAND OF SPRINKLES ON RADAR AT MOMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVER INDIANA FROM
GREAT LAKES TODAY. CURRENTLY LIGHT RAIN THREAT FROM IS FORECAST
AT LOCATIONS EAST OF A LAFAYETTE...INDY...SEYMOUR LINE. THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE BROADENED FURTHER WEST.

TEMPERATURES NOT GOING UP MUCH TODAY WITH DAYBREAK READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ON COOL NORTHWEST BREEZES. POTENTIAL ISSUE MAY
BE SUN TO BREAK OUT FOR A TIME BETWEEN CURRENT EAST-WEST BAND OVER
AREA AND NEXT BATCH WITH UPPER TROUGH. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCES BUT ANY SUNSHINE MAY LEAD TO WARMER GFS MOS BEING BETTER CHOICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF 32 NOT OUT OF
QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. ONE ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT CLOUD DRIFTING INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER UPPER
TROUGH-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS EXIT. THESE LAKE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEPART BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AND LEAVE ENOUGH TIME FOR EARLY MORNING
FROST. MAJORITY OF FORECAST AREA WILL CLEAR AROUND DARK THIS
EVENING WITH EASTERN COUNTIES MAYBE AN HOUR LATER. CURRENT MIN
TEMPERATURES ON TARGET THOUGH HAVE COOLED SOUTHERN LOCATIONS A
DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THAT THEY WILL BE CLEAR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED AS WINDS DROP TO CALM AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT ON TOP OF INDIANA DAYBREAK
SUNDAY PRODUCING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
RECOVER FROM CHILLY START. WARM ADVECTION SOUTHWEST WIND BEGINS IN
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE QUICKLY DROPPING INTO
OUR REGION FROM CANADA. AGAIN HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODEL DATA FOR
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AND CURRENT VALUES WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR RAIN THREAT COVERAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAN TO GFS AND EURO MODELS
SHOWING SLIGHTLY GREATER RAIN COVERAGE BUT DOWNPLAY THE RAIN
AMOUNTS OF THESE MODELS KEEPING UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT
THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME
PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAYS SYSTEM...BUT WITH JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
40S. HAVE BLENDED MOS AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR TEMPS IN EACH OF
THESE PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BEGIN THE DAY TUESDAY THAT
AN UPPER WAVE COULD STILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THUS KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING OVER THE
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING THAT THE INITIALIZATION GAVE. AFTER THAT
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD AND BRINGS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE AREA AND THAT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT AS THE HIGH MOVES TO
THE EAST FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

EXTENSIVE CEILINGS AROUND 040 CURRENTLY OVER THE TAF SITES...WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS 025-030 PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THESE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING
THE PRE DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY...REACHING KBMG NEAR SUNRISE. THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP THESE LOWER CEILINGS AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 290-310 DEGREES AT 7-11 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER TOWARDS 320-340 WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
15 KTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 180752
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
352 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CONCERNS FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH OF AREA MAY BE THREATENED WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

PERSISTENT NARROW BAND OF SPRINKLES ON RADAR AT MOMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVER INDIANA FROM
GREAT LAKES TODAY. CURRENTLY LIGHT RAIN THREAT FROM IS FORECAST
AT LOCATIONS EAST OF A LAFAYETTE...INDY...SEYMOUR LINE. THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE BROADENED FURTHER WEST.

TEMPERATURES NOT GOING UP MUCH TODAY WITH DAYBREAK READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ON COOL NORTHWEST BREEZES. POTENTIAL ISSUE MAY
BE SUN TO BREAK OUT FOR A TIME BETWEEN CURRENT EAST-WEST BAND OVER
AREA AND NEXT BATCH WITH UPPER TROUGH. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCES BUT ANY SUNSHINE MAY LEAD TO WARMER GFS MOS BEING BETTER CHOICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF 32 NOT OUT OF
QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. ONE ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT CLOUD DRIFTING INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER UPPER
TROUGH-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS EXIT. THESE LAKE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEPART BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AND LEAVE ENOUGH TIME FOR EARLY MORNING
FROST. MAJORITY OF FORECAST AREA WILL CLEAR AROUND DARK THIS
EVENING WITH EASTERN COUNTIES MAYBE AN HOUR LATER. CURRENT MIN
TEMPERATURES ON TARGET THOUGH HAVE COOLED SOUTHERN LOCATIONS A
DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THAT THEY WILL BE CLEAR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED AS WINDS DROP TO CALM AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT ON TOP OF INDIANA DAYBREAK
SUNDAY PRODUCING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
RECOVER FROM CHILLY START. WARM ADVECTION SOUTHWEST WIND BEGINS IN
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE QUICKLY DROPPING INTO
OUR REGION FROM CANADA. AGAIN HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODEL DATA FOR
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AND CURRENT VALUES WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR RAIN THREAT COVERAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAN TO GFS AND EURO MODELS
SHOWING SLIGHTLY GREATER RAIN COVERAGE BUT DOWNPLAY THE RAIN
AMOUNTS OF THESE MODELS KEEPING UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT
THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME
PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAYS SYSTEM...BUT WITH JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
40S. HAVE BLENDED MOS AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR TEMPS IN EACH OF
THESE PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BEGIN THE DAY TUESDAY THAT
AN UPPER WAVE COULD STILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THUS KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING OVER THE
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING THAT THE INITIALIZATION GAVE. AFTER THAT
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD AND BRINGS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE AREA AND THAT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT AS THE HIGH MOVES TO
THE EAST FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

EXTENSIVE CEILINGS AROUND 040 CURRENTLY OVER THE TAF SITES...WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS 025-030 PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THESE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING
THE PRE DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY...REACHING KBMG NEAR SUNRISE. THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP THESE LOWER CEILINGS AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 290-310 DEGREES AT 7-11 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER TOWARDS 320-340 WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
15 KTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 180752
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
352 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CONCERNS FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH OF AREA MAY BE THREATENED WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

PERSISTENT NARROW BAND OF SPRINKLES ON RADAR AT MOMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVER INDIANA FROM
GREAT LAKES TODAY. CURRENTLY LIGHT RAIN THREAT FROM IS FORECAST
AT LOCATIONS EAST OF A LAFAYETTE...INDY...SEYMOUR LINE. THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE BROADENED FURTHER WEST.

TEMPERATURES NOT GOING UP MUCH TODAY WITH DAYBREAK READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ON COOL NORTHWEST BREEZES. POTENTIAL ISSUE MAY
BE SUN TO BREAK OUT FOR A TIME BETWEEN CURRENT EAST-WEST BAND OVER
AREA AND NEXT BATCH WITH UPPER TROUGH. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCES BUT ANY SUNSHINE MAY LEAD TO WARMER GFS MOS BEING BETTER CHOICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF 32 NOT OUT OF
QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. ONE ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT CLOUD DRIFTING INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER UPPER
TROUGH-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS EXIT. THESE LAKE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEPART BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AND LEAVE ENOUGH TIME FOR EARLY MORNING
FROST. MAJORITY OF FORECAST AREA WILL CLEAR AROUND DARK THIS
EVENING WITH EASTERN COUNTIES MAYBE AN HOUR LATER. CURRENT MIN
TEMPERATURES ON TARGET THOUGH HAVE COOLED SOUTHERN LOCATIONS A
DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THAT THEY WILL BE CLEAR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED AS WINDS DROP TO CALM AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT ON TOP OF INDIANA DAYBREAK
SUNDAY PRODUCING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
RECOVER FROM CHILLY START. WARM ADVECTION SOUTHWEST WIND BEGINS IN
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE QUICKLY DROPPING INTO
OUR REGION FROM CANADA. AGAIN HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODEL DATA FOR
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AND CURRENT VALUES WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR RAIN THREAT COVERAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAN TO GFS AND EURO MODELS
SHOWING SLIGHTLY GREATER RAIN COVERAGE BUT DOWNPLAY THE RAIN
AMOUNTS OF THESE MODELS KEEPING UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT
THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME
PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAYS SYSTEM...BUT WITH JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
40S. HAVE BLENDED MOS AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR TEMPS IN EACH OF
THESE PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BEGIN THE DAY TUESDAY THAT
AN UPPER WAVE COULD STILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THUS KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING OVER THE
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING THAT THE INITIALIZATION GAVE. AFTER THAT
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD AND BRINGS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE AREA AND THAT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT AS THE HIGH MOVES TO
THE EAST FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

EXTENSIVE CEILINGS AROUND 040 CURRENTLY OVER THE TAF SITES...WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS 025-030 PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THESE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING
THE PRE DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY...REACHING KBMG NEAR SUNRISE. THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP THESE LOWER CEILINGS AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 290-310 DEGREES AT 7-11 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER TOWARDS 320-340 WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
15 KTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 180702
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
302 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

HIGHLIGHTING WIDESPREAD FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

SEVERAL COLD FRONTS QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.  INTERVENING PERIODS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TO PRODUCE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL SETTLE PATTERN INTO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WITH
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INDIANA. A WEAK
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED SOUTH OF INDIANA...AND IR PICTURES SHOW
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ENGULFING THE STATE.
A SURFACE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AMID COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW.
FURTHER SUPPORT IS SEEN IN THE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SATURATED LOWER LEVELS.

HAVE TRENDED SKY GRIDS TOWARD CLOUDY OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LATEST
SATELLITE TRENDS. ONGOING TEMP FORECAST LOOKS ON THE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH FREEZE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW BUT FROST
ADVISORY AND/OR FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FROM NIGHT SHIFT
TONIGHT. WILL CARRY THIS INFORMATION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR RAIN THREAT COVERAGE
AND WILL LEAN TO THE MODELS SHOWING SLIGHTLY GREATER RAIN COVERAGE
GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS OBSERVED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

SHARPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO SWING ACROSS FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER ALL BUT WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
THIS TROUGH DEPARTS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWING IT TO CLEAR SKIES BY SUNDOWN SATURDAY AND DROP SURFACE
DEWPOINTS TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW AND QUICK COOLING TO LOWER 40S
AIR TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT ON TOP OF INDIANA BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY PRODUCING VERY LIGHT WIND UNDER A CLEAR SKY WHICH WILL LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD FROST. SOME VALLEY AREAS AND MANY LOCATIONS EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF INDIANAPOLIS COULD DIP TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW FOR AN
HOUR OR SO NEAR SUNDAY SUNRISE.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION BY MONDAY
RETURNING CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AT THAT TIME. GFS APPEARS
OVERDOING PULL OF GULF MOISTURE INTO MONDAY SYSTEM AND OVERDOING
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. PREFER AMOUNTS NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH MONDAY.

TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS FROM THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CURRENT
FORECAST TEMPS AND MODEL GUIDANCE ON TARGET THOUGH WILL BUMP DOWN
SUNDAY MORNING MINS A DEGREE OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BEGIN THE DAY TUESDAY THAT
AN UPPER WAVE COULD STILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THUS KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING OVER THE
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING THAT THE INITIALIZATION GAVE. AFTER THAT
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD AND BRINGS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE AREA AND THAT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT AS THE HIGH MOVES TO
THE EAST FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

EXTENSIVE CEILINGS AROUND 040 CURRENTLY OVER THE TAF SITES...WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS 025-030 PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THESE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING
THE PRE DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY...REACHING KBMG NEAR SUNRISE. THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP THESE LOWER CEILINGS AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 290-310 DEGREES AT 7-11 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER TOWARDS 320-340 WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
15 KTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 180702
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
302 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

HIGHLIGHTING WIDESPREAD FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

SEVERAL COLD FRONTS QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.  INTERVENING PERIODS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TO PRODUCE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL SETTLE PATTERN INTO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WITH
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INDIANA. A WEAK
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED SOUTH OF INDIANA...AND IR PICTURES SHOW
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ENGULFING THE STATE.
A SURFACE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AMID COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW.
FURTHER SUPPORT IS SEEN IN THE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SATURATED LOWER LEVELS.

HAVE TRENDED SKY GRIDS TOWARD CLOUDY OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LATEST
SATELLITE TRENDS. ONGOING TEMP FORECAST LOOKS ON THE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH FREEZE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW BUT FROST
ADVISORY AND/OR FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FROM NIGHT SHIFT
TONIGHT. WILL CARRY THIS INFORMATION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR RAIN THREAT COVERAGE
AND WILL LEAN TO THE MODELS SHOWING SLIGHTLY GREATER RAIN COVERAGE
GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS OBSERVED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

SHARPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO SWING ACROSS FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER ALL BUT WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
THIS TROUGH DEPARTS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWING IT TO CLEAR SKIES BY SUNDOWN SATURDAY AND DROP SURFACE
DEWPOINTS TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW AND QUICK COOLING TO LOWER 40S
AIR TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT ON TOP OF INDIANA BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY PRODUCING VERY LIGHT WIND UNDER A CLEAR SKY WHICH WILL LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD FROST. SOME VALLEY AREAS AND MANY LOCATIONS EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF INDIANAPOLIS COULD DIP TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW FOR AN
HOUR OR SO NEAR SUNDAY SUNRISE.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION BY MONDAY
RETURNING CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AT THAT TIME. GFS APPEARS
OVERDOING PULL OF GULF MOISTURE INTO MONDAY SYSTEM AND OVERDOING
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. PREFER AMOUNTS NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH MONDAY.

TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS FROM THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CURRENT
FORECAST TEMPS AND MODEL GUIDANCE ON TARGET THOUGH WILL BUMP DOWN
SUNDAY MORNING MINS A DEGREE OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BEGIN THE DAY TUESDAY THAT
AN UPPER WAVE COULD STILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THUS KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING OVER THE
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING THAT THE INITIALIZATION GAVE. AFTER THAT
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD AND BRINGS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE AREA AND THAT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT AS THE HIGH MOVES TO
THE EAST FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

EXTENSIVE CEILINGS AROUND 040 CURRENTLY OVER THE TAF SITES...WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS 025-030 PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THESE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING
THE PRE DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY...REACHING KBMG NEAR SUNRISE. THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP THESE LOWER CEILINGS AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 290-310 DEGREES AT 7-11 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER TOWARDS 320-340 WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
15 KTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 180450
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1250 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

HIGHLIGHTING WIDESPREAD FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

SEVERAL COLD FRONTS QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.  INTERVENING PERIODS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TO PRODUCE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL SETTLE PATTERN INTO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WITH
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INDIANA. A WEAK
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED SOUTH OF INDIANA...AND IR PICTURES SHOW
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ENGULFING THE STATE.
A SURFACE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AMID COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW.
FURTHER SUPPORT IS SEEN IN THE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SATURATED LOWER LEVELS.

HAVE TRENDED SKY GRIDS TOWARD CLOUDY OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LATEST
SATELLITE TRENDS. ONGOING TEMP FORECAST LOOKS ON THE MARK.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH FREEZE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW BUT FROST
ADVISORY AND/OR FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FROM NIGHT SHIFT
TONIGHT. WILL CARRY THIS INFORMATION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR RAIN THREAT COVERAGE
AND WILL LEAN TO THE MODELS SHOWING SLIGHTLY GREATER RAIN COVERAGE
GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS OBSERVED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

SHARPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO SWING ACROSS FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER ALL BUT WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
THIS TROUGH DEPARTS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWING IT TO CLEAR SKIES BY SUNDOWN SATURDAY AND DROP SURFACE
DEWPOINTS TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW AND QUICK COOLING TO LOWER 40S
AIR TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT ON TOP OF INDIANA BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY PRODUCING VERY LIGHT WIND UNDER A CLEAR SKY WHICH WILL LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD FROST. SOME VALLEY AREAS AND MANY LOCATIONS EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF INDIANAPOLIS COULD DIP TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW FOR AN
HOUR OR SO NEAR SUNDAY SUNRISE.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION BY MONDAY
RETURNING CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AT THAT TIME. GFS APPEARS
OVERDOING PULL OF GULF MOISTURE INTO MONDAY SYSTEM AND OVERDOING
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. PREFER AMOUNTS NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH MONDAY.

TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS FROM THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CURRENT
FORECAST TEMPS AND MODEL GUIDANCE ON TARGET THOUGH WILL BUMP DOWN
SUNDAY MORNING MINS A DEGREE OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD SOME REMNANT SHOWERS MAY BE
LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA THANKS TO A SHORT
WAVE SLIDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FEATURE OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES...AND VERY LOW (20 PERCENT).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY...
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. IN TERMS OF TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD....THESE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

EXTENSIVE CEILINGS AROUND 040 CURRENTLY OVER THE TAF SITES...WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS 025-030 PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THESE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING
THE PRE DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY...REACHING KBMG NEAR SUNRISE. THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP THESE LOWER CEILINGS AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 290-310 DEGREES AT 7-11 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER TOWARDS 320-340 WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
15 KTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JAS/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 180450
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1250 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

HIGHLIGHTING WIDESPREAD FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

SEVERAL COLD FRONTS QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.  INTERVENING PERIODS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TO PRODUCE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL SETTLE PATTERN INTO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WITH
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INDIANA. A WEAK
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED SOUTH OF INDIANA...AND IR PICTURES SHOW
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ENGULFING THE STATE.
A SURFACE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AMID COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW.
FURTHER SUPPORT IS SEEN IN THE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SATURATED LOWER LEVELS.

HAVE TRENDED SKY GRIDS TOWARD CLOUDY OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LATEST
SATELLITE TRENDS. ONGOING TEMP FORECAST LOOKS ON THE MARK.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH FREEZE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW BUT FROST
ADVISORY AND/OR FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FROM NIGHT SHIFT
TONIGHT. WILL CARRY THIS INFORMATION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR RAIN THREAT COVERAGE
AND WILL LEAN TO THE MODELS SHOWING SLIGHTLY GREATER RAIN COVERAGE
GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS OBSERVED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

SHARPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO SWING ACROSS FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER ALL BUT WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
THIS TROUGH DEPARTS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWING IT TO CLEAR SKIES BY SUNDOWN SATURDAY AND DROP SURFACE
DEWPOINTS TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW AND QUICK COOLING TO LOWER 40S
AIR TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT ON TOP OF INDIANA BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY PRODUCING VERY LIGHT WIND UNDER A CLEAR SKY WHICH WILL LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD FROST. SOME VALLEY AREAS AND MANY LOCATIONS EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF INDIANAPOLIS COULD DIP TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW FOR AN
HOUR OR SO NEAR SUNDAY SUNRISE.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION BY MONDAY
RETURNING CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AT THAT TIME. GFS APPEARS
OVERDOING PULL OF GULF MOISTURE INTO MONDAY SYSTEM AND OVERDOING
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. PREFER AMOUNTS NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH MONDAY.

TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS FROM THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CURRENT
FORECAST TEMPS AND MODEL GUIDANCE ON TARGET THOUGH WILL BUMP DOWN
SUNDAY MORNING MINS A DEGREE OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD SOME REMNANT SHOWERS MAY BE
LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA THANKS TO A SHORT
WAVE SLIDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FEATURE OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES...AND VERY LOW (20 PERCENT).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY...
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. IN TERMS OF TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD....THESE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

EXTENSIVE CEILINGS AROUND 040 CURRENTLY OVER THE TAF SITES...WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS 025-030 PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THESE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING
THE PRE DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY...REACHING KBMG NEAR SUNRISE. THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP THESE LOWER CEILINGS AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 290-310 DEGREES AT 7-11 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER TOWARDS 320-340 WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
15 KTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JAS/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 180450
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1250 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

HIGHLIGHTING WIDESPREAD FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

SEVERAL COLD FRONTS QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.  INTERVENING PERIODS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TO PRODUCE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL SETTLE PATTERN INTO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WITH
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INDIANA. A WEAK
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED SOUTH OF INDIANA...AND IR PICTURES SHOW
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ENGULFING THE STATE.
A SURFACE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AMID COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW.
FURTHER SUPPORT IS SEEN IN THE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SATURATED LOWER LEVELS.

HAVE TRENDED SKY GRIDS TOWARD CLOUDY OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LATEST
SATELLITE TRENDS. ONGOING TEMP FORECAST LOOKS ON THE MARK.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH FREEZE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW BUT FROST
ADVISORY AND/OR FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FROM NIGHT SHIFT
TONIGHT. WILL CARRY THIS INFORMATION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR RAIN THREAT COVERAGE
AND WILL LEAN TO THE MODELS SHOWING SLIGHTLY GREATER RAIN COVERAGE
GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS OBSERVED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

SHARPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO SWING ACROSS FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER ALL BUT WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
THIS TROUGH DEPARTS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWING IT TO CLEAR SKIES BY SUNDOWN SATURDAY AND DROP SURFACE
DEWPOINTS TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW AND QUICK COOLING TO LOWER 40S
AIR TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT ON TOP OF INDIANA BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY PRODUCING VERY LIGHT WIND UNDER A CLEAR SKY WHICH WILL LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD FROST. SOME VALLEY AREAS AND MANY LOCATIONS EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF INDIANAPOLIS COULD DIP TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW FOR AN
HOUR OR SO NEAR SUNDAY SUNRISE.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION BY MONDAY
RETURNING CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AT THAT TIME. GFS APPEARS
OVERDOING PULL OF GULF MOISTURE INTO MONDAY SYSTEM AND OVERDOING
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. PREFER AMOUNTS NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH MONDAY.

TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS FROM THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CURRENT
FORECAST TEMPS AND MODEL GUIDANCE ON TARGET THOUGH WILL BUMP DOWN
SUNDAY MORNING MINS A DEGREE OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD SOME REMNANT SHOWERS MAY BE
LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA THANKS TO A SHORT
WAVE SLIDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FEATURE OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES...AND VERY LOW (20 PERCENT).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY...
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. IN TERMS OF TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD....THESE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

EXTENSIVE CEILINGS AROUND 040 CURRENTLY OVER THE TAF SITES...WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS 025-030 PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THESE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING
THE PRE DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY...REACHING KBMG NEAR SUNRISE. THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP THESE LOWER CEILINGS AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 290-310 DEGREES AT 7-11 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER TOWARDS 320-340 WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
15 KTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JAS/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 180450
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1250 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

HIGHLIGHTING WIDESPREAD FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

SEVERAL COLD FRONTS QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.  INTERVENING PERIODS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TO PRODUCE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL SETTLE PATTERN INTO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WITH
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INDIANA. A WEAK
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED SOUTH OF INDIANA...AND IR PICTURES SHOW
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ENGULFING THE STATE.
A SURFACE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AMID COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW.
FURTHER SUPPORT IS SEEN IN THE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SATURATED LOWER LEVELS.

HAVE TRENDED SKY GRIDS TOWARD CLOUDY OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LATEST
SATELLITE TRENDS. ONGOING TEMP FORECAST LOOKS ON THE MARK.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH FREEZE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW BUT FROST
ADVISORY AND/OR FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FROM NIGHT SHIFT
TONIGHT. WILL CARRY THIS INFORMATION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR RAIN THREAT COVERAGE
AND WILL LEAN TO THE MODELS SHOWING SLIGHTLY GREATER RAIN COVERAGE
GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS OBSERVED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

SHARPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO SWING ACROSS FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER ALL BUT WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
THIS TROUGH DEPARTS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWING IT TO CLEAR SKIES BY SUNDOWN SATURDAY AND DROP SURFACE
DEWPOINTS TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW AND QUICK COOLING TO LOWER 40S
AIR TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT ON TOP OF INDIANA BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY PRODUCING VERY LIGHT WIND UNDER A CLEAR SKY WHICH WILL LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD FROST. SOME VALLEY AREAS AND MANY LOCATIONS EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF INDIANAPOLIS COULD DIP TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW FOR AN
HOUR OR SO NEAR SUNDAY SUNRISE.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION BY MONDAY
RETURNING CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AT THAT TIME. GFS APPEARS
OVERDOING PULL OF GULF MOISTURE INTO MONDAY SYSTEM AND OVERDOING
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. PREFER AMOUNTS NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH MONDAY.

TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS FROM THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CURRENT
FORECAST TEMPS AND MODEL GUIDANCE ON TARGET THOUGH WILL BUMP DOWN
SUNDAY MORNING MINS A DEGREE OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD SOME REMNANT SHOWERS MAY BE
LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA THANKS TO A SHORT
WAVE SLIDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FEATURE OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES...AND VERY LOW (20 PERCENT).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY...
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. IN TERMS OF TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD....THESE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

EXTENSIVE CEILINGS AROUND 040 CURRENTLY OVER THE TAF SITES...WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS 025-030 PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THESE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING
THE PRE DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY...REACHING KBMG NEAR SUNRISE. THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP THESE LOWER CEILINGS AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 290-310 DEGREES AT 7-11 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER TOWARDS 320-340 WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
15 KTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JAS/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 180429
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1229 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

HIGHLIGHTING WIDESPREAD FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

SEVERAL COLD FRONTS QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.  INTERVENING PERIODS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TO PRODUCE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL SETTLE PATTERN INTO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1224 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
NARROW RAIN BAND ON RADAR MAY COME INTO PLAY FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS FORECAST BUT MAY IMPACT A FEW MORE COUNTIES
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH FREEZE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW BUT FROST
ADVISORY AND/OR FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FROM NIGHT SHIFT
TONIGHT. WILL CARRY THIS INFORMATION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR RAIN THREAT COVERAGE
AND WILL LEAN TO THE MODELS SHOWING SLIGHTLY GREATER RAIN COVERAGE
GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS OBSERVED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

SHARPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO SWING ACROSS FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER ALL BUT WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
THIS TROUGH DEPARTS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWING IT TO CLEAR SKIES BY SUNDOWN SATURDAY AND DROP SURFACE
DEWPOINTS TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW AND QUICK COOLING TO LOWER 40S
AIR TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT ON TOP OF INDIANA BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY PRODUCING VERY LIGHT WIND UNDER A CLEAR SKY WHICH WILL LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD FROST. SOME VALLEY AREAS AND MANY LOCATIONS EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF INDIANAPOLIS COULD DIP TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW FOR AN
HOUR OR SO NEAR SUNDAY SUNRISE.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION BY MONDAY
RETURNING CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AT THAT TIME. GFS APPEARS
OVERDOING PULL OF GULF MOISTURE INTO MONDAY SYSTEM AND OVERDOING
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. PREFER AMOUNTS NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH MONDAY.

TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS FROM THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CURRENT
FORECAST TEMPS AND MODEL GUIDANCE ON TARGET THOUGH WILL BUMP DOWN
SUNDAY MORNING MINS A DEGREE OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD SOME REMNANT SHOWERS MAY BE
LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA THANKS TO A SHORT
WAVE SLIDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FEATURE OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES...AND VERY LOW (20 PERCENT).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY...
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. IN TERMS OF TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD....THESE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1023 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

EXTENSIVE AREA OF CEILINGS AROUND 040 CURRENTLY OVER THE TAF
SITES...WITH MVFR CEILINGS 025-030 PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THESE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES AFTER
180600Z.

SHOULD LOSE MOST OF THE GUSTS WITH SUNSET...ALTHOUGH WITH A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD HOLD UP IN THE 8-13 KT
RANGE TONIGHT FROM 280-310 DEGREES.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 180429
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1229 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

HIGHLIGHTING WIDESPREAD FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

SEVERAL COLD FRONTS QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.  INTERVENING PERIODS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TO PRODUCE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL SETTLE PATTERN INTO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1224 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
NARROW RAIN BAND ON RADAR MAY COME INTO PLAY FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS FORECAST BUT MAY IMPACT A FEW MORE COUNTIES
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH FREEZE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW BUT FROST
ADVISORY AND/OR FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FROM NIGHT SHIFT
TONIGHT. WILL CARRY THIS INFORMATION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR RAIN THREAT COVERAGE
AND WILL LEAN TO THE MODELS SHOWING SLIGHTLY GREATER RAIN COVERAGE
GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS OBSERVED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

SHARPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO SWING ACROSS FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER ALL BUT WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
THIS TROUGH DEPARTS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWING IT TO CLEAR SKIES BY SUNDOWN SATURDAY AND DROP SURFACE
DEWPOINTS TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW AND QUICK COOLING TO LOWER 40S
AIR TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT ON TOP OF INDIANA BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY PRODUCING VERY LIGHT WIND UNDER A CLEAR SKY WHICH WILL LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD FROST. SOME VALLEY AREAS AND MANY LOCATIONS EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF INDIANAPOLIS COULD DIP TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW FOR AN
HOUR OR SO NEAR SUNDAY SUNRISE.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION BY MONDAY
RETURNING CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AT THAT TIME. GFS APPEARS
OVERDOING PULL OF GULF MOISTURE INTO MONDAY SYSTEM AND OVERDOING
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. PREFER AMOUNTS NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH MONDAY.

TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS FROM THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CURRENT
FORECAST TEMPS AND MODEL GUIDANCE ON TARGET THOUGH WILL BUMP DOWN
SUNDAY MORNING MINS A DEGREE OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD SOME REMNANT SHOWERS MAY BE
LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA THANKS TO A SHORT
WAVE SLIDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FEATURE OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES...AND VERY LOW (20 PERCENT).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY...
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. IN TERMS OF TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD....THESE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1023 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

EXTENSIVE AREA OF CEILINGS AROUND 040 CURRENTLY OVER THE TAF
SITES...WITH MVFR CEILINGS 025-030 PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THESE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES AFTER
180600Z.

SHOULD LOSE MOST OF THE GUSTS WITH SUNSET...ALTHOUGH WITH A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD HOLD UP IN THE 8-13 KT
RANGE TONIGHT FROM 280-310 DEGREES.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 180429
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1229 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

HIGHLIGHTING WIDESPREAD FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

SEVERAL COLD FRONTS QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.  INTERVENING PERIODS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TO PRODUCE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL SETTLE PATTERN INTO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1224 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
NARROW RAIN BAND ON RADAR MAY COME INTO PLAY FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS FORECAST BUT MAY IMPACT A FEW MORE COUNTIES
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH FREEZE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW BUT FROST
ADVISORY AND/OR FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FROM NIGHT SHIFT
TONIGHT. WILL CARRY THIS INFORMATION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR RAIN THREAT COVERAGE
AND WILL LEAN TO THE MODELS SHOWING SLIGHTLY GREATER RAIN COVERAGE
GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS OBSERVED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

SHARPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO SWING ACROSS FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER ALL BUT WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
THIS TROUGH DEPARTS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWING IT TO CLEAR SKIES BY SUNDOWN SATURDAY AND DROP SURFACE
DEWPOINTS TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW AND QUICK COOLING TO LOWER 40S
AIR TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT ON TOP OF INDIANA BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY PRODUCING VERY LIGHT WIND UNDER A CLEAR SKY WHICH WILL LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD FROST. SOME VALLEY AREAS AND MANY LOCATIONS EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF INDIANAPOLIS COULD DIP TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW FOR AN
HOUR OR SO NEAR SUNDAY SUNRISE.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION BY MONDAY
RETURNING CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AT THAT TIME. GFS APPEARS
OVERDOING PULL OF GULF MOISTURE INTO MONDAY SYSTEM AND OVERDOING
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. PREFER AMOUNTS NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH MONDAY.

TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS FROM THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CURRENT
FORECAST TEMPS AND MODEL GUIDANCE ON TARGET THOUGH WILL BUMP DOWN
SUNDAY MORNING MINS A DEGREE OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD SOME REMNANT SHOWERS MAY BE
LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA THANKS TO A SHORT
WAVE SLIDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FEATURE OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES...AND VERY LOW (20 PERCENT).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY...
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. IN TERMS OF TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD....THESE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1023 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

EXTENSIVE AREA OF CEILINGS AROUND 040 CURRENTLY OVER THE TAF
SITES...WITH MVFR CEILINGS 025-030 PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THESE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES AFTER
180600Z.

SHOULD LOSE MOST OF THE GUSTS WITH SUNSET...ALTHOUGH WITH A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD HOLD UP IN THE 8-13 KT
RANGE TONIGHT FROM 280-310 DEGREES.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 180429
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1229 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

HIGHLIGHTING WIDESPREAD FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

SEVERAL COLD FRONTS QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.  INTERVENING PERIODS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TO PRODUCE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL SETTLE PATTERN INTO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1224 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
NARROW RAIN BAND ON RADAR MAY COME INTO PLAY FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS FORECAST BUT MAY IMPACT A FEW MORE COUNTIES
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH FREEZE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW BUT FROST
ADVISORY AND/OR FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FROM NIGHT SHIFT
TONIGHT. WILL CARRY THIS INFORMATION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR RAIN THREAT COVERAGE
AND WILL LEAN TO THE MODELS SHOWING SLIGHTLY GREATER RAIN COVERAGE
GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS OBSERVED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

SHARPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO SWING ACROSS FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER ALL BUT WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
THIS TROUGH DEPARTS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWING IT TO CLEAR SKIES BY SUNDOWN SATURDAY AND DROP SURFACE
DEWPOINTS TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW AND QUICK COOLING TO LOWER 40S
AIR TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT ON TOP OF INDIANA BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY PRODUCING VERY LIGHT WIND UNDER A CLEAR SKY WHICH WILL LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD FROST. SOME VALLEY AREAS AND MANY LOCATIONS EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF INDIANAPOLIS COULD DIP TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW FOR AN
HOUR OR SO NEAR SUNDAY SUNRISE.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION BY MONDAY
RETURNING CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AT THAT TIME. GFS APPEARS
OVERDOING PULL OF GULF MOISTURE INTO MONDAY SYSTEM AND OVERDOING
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. PREFER AMOUNTS NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH MONDAY.

TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS FROM THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CURRENT
FORECAST TEMPS AND MODEL GUIDANCE ON TARGET THOUGH WILL BUMP DOWN
SUNDAY MORNING MINS A DEGREE OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD SOME REMNANT SHOWERS MAY BE
LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA THANKS TO A SHORT
WAVE SLIDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FEATURE OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES...AND VERY LOW (20 PERCENT).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY...
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. IN TERMS OF TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD....THESE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1023 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

EXTENSIVE AREA OF CEILINGS AROUND 040 CURRENTLY OVER THE TAF
SITES...WITH MVFR CEILINGS 025-030 PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THESE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES AFTER
180600Z.

SHOULD LOSE MOST OF THE GUSTS WITH SUNSET...ALTHOUGH WITH A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD HOLD UP IN THE 8-13 KT
RANGE TONIGHT FROM 280-310 DEGREES.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









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