Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KIND 052030
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
330 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAVS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREDOMINANTLY IN CONTROL. A DEEPENING
UPPER LOW WILL DIVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A
TRANSITION TO A COLDER AND SNOWIER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT VIS
SATELLITE PICS SHOWING THAT THE STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO ERODE ON ITS
FORWARD FLANK...WITH THE EXTENT OF THE COVERAGE LIKELY MAXED OUT.
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WERE PRESENT ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY JUST
IN THE LOWER 30S UNDER THE STRATUS...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AT 20Z.

AS THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO ERODE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WILL SEE MORE EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPAND
INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING...WITH SOME
CLEARING RETURNING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70...AS SUBTLE
SURFACE RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO REESTABLISH. CLOUDS WILL THEN ONCE AGAIN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE PREDAWN HOURS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE WAVE ALOFT.

TEMPS...TOOK A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT CONSIDERING PERIODIC
CLOUDS. SHOULD THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ALOFT
HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK OR AFTER...MAY SEE LOWS
TREND TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON SNOW CHANCES MONDAY AS A COLDER AND
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK.

FIRST THOUGH...A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND AS THE OHIO VALLEY RESIDES IN A
FAST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE WILL
TRANSITION ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY IN AN INCREASINGLY WEAKENED
STATE. ENERGY ALOFT WILL SPLIT BETWEEN A STRONGER UPPER WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SURFACE LOW
MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING
ALOFT COMBINED WITH POOR MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP IMPACTS
MINIMAL WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE THROUGH THE AREA. CANNOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
JUST ANTICIPATING A PERIOD WITH INCREASED CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE LATER IN THE DAY. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT BRIEFLY ESTABLISH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

A STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW WILL DIVE OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY. THE UPPER
LOW WILL PROGRESSIVELY DEEPEN AND CARVE OUT A SHARP TROUGH POISED TO
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY TO START THE NEW WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING AN ABRUPT RETURN BACK TO WINTER WEATHER FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA BEGINNING MONDAY AND LIKELY CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

INITIALLY...MOISTURE DRAWN NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY WILL
ENABLE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE...BUT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES MORE
ESTABLISHED. LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SUNDAY EVENING GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE PREDAWN HOURS MONDAY AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION
AROUND THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
POSSIBLY FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...LOW LEVEL THERMAL ANALYSIS
STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE THAT PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ALL SNOW BY
12Z MONDAY.

MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS THE UPPER LOW SETTLING OVER THE REGION
MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS SUBTLE INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRONG FORCING PRESENT IN THE MID
LEVELS. WHILE WOULD LIKE TO SEE A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE LOOK TO
THE SOUNDINGS...CERTAINLY THINK WE MAY BE LOOKING AT A HIGH IMPACT/
LOW ACCUMULATION SCENARIO MONDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS
SCATTERED ALL DAY. THE PRESENCE OF A FEW HOURS WITH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AT 50-100MB DEPTH DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY ENHANCE
SNOWFALL RATES WITH RATIOS CLOSER TO 15 OT 1 BY LATE DAY.

ADDING TO THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPS DURING THE DAY AS COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. EXPECT TEMPS INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY SUNSET MONDAY. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE
POPS AND BEEF UP WORDING FOR IMPACTS IN THE HWO. POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO
2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE PRESENCE OF A
TROWAL BENDING BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY MAINTAINING
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS OVER
THE WEEKEND AS TEMPS HAVE OVERACHIEVED THE LAST FEW DAYS WHEN THE
SUN HAS BEEN PRESENT. INDICATED MORNING HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPS THE REST OF THE DAY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. USED A
MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW
SITUATED OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA AND THE SURFACE LOW ENTERING THE
NORTHEAST U.S.  COLDER AIR WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY
NIGHT...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  AFTER SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
TRAVERSES ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 052100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
NOTHING THAT WILL IMPACT FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL START OUT
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...BECOMING VARIABLE AND LIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JH





000
FXUS63 KIND 052006
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
306 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREDOMINANTLY IN CONTROL. A DEEPENING
UPPER LOW WILL DIVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A
TRANSITION TO A COLDER AND SNOWIER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT VIS
SATELLITE PICS SHOWING THAT THE STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO ERODE ON ITS
FORWARD FLANK...WITH THE EXTENT OF THE COVERAGE LIKELY MAXED OUT.
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WERE PRESENT ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY JUST
IN THE LOWER 30S UNDER THE STRATUS...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AT 20Z.

AS THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO ERODE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WILL SEE MORE EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPAND
INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING...WITH SOME
CLEARING RETURNING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70...AS SUBTLE
SURFACE RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO REESTABLISH. CLOUDS WILL THEN ONCE AGAIN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE PREDAWN HOURS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE WAVE ALOFT.

TEMPS...TOOK A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT CONSIDERING PERIODIC
CLOUDS. SHOULD THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ALOFT
HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK OR AFTER...MAY SEE LOWS
TREND TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON SNOW CHANCES MONDAY AS A COLDER AND
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK.

FIRST THOUGH...A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND AS THE OHIO VALLEY RESIDES IN A
FAST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE WILL
TRANSITION ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY IN AN INCREASINGLY WEAKENED
STATE. ENERGY ALOFT WILL SPLIT BETWEEN A STRONGER UPPER WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SURFACE LOW
MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING
ALOFT COMBINED WITH POOR MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP IMPACTS
MINIMAL WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE THROUGH THE AREA. CANNOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
JUST ANTICIPATING A PERIOD WITH INCREASED CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE LATER IN THE DAY. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT BRIEFLY ESTABLISH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

A STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW WILL DIVE OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY. THE UPPER
LOW WILL PROGRESSIVELY DEEPEN AND CARVE OUT A SHARP TROUGH POISED TO
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY TO START THE NEW WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING AN ABRUPT RETURN BACK TO WINTER WEATHER FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA BEGINNING MONDAY AND LIKELY CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

INITIALLY...MOISTURE DRAWN NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY WILL
ENABLE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE...BUT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES MORE
ESTABLISHED. LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SUNDAY EVENING GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE PREDAWN HOURS MONDAY AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION
AROUND THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
POSSIBLY FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...LOW LEVEL THERMAL ANALYSIS
STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE THAT PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ALL SNOW BY
12Z MONDAY.

MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS THE UPPER LOW SETTLING OVER THE REGION
MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS SUBTLE INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRONG FORCING PRESENT IN THE MID
LEVELS. WHILE WOULD LIKE TO SEE A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE LOOK TO
THE SOUNDINGS...CERTAINLY THINK WE MAY BE LOOKING AT A HIGH IMPACT/
LOW ACCUMULATION SCENARIO MONDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS
SCATTERED ALL DAY. THE PRESENCE OF A FEW HOURS WITH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AT 50-100MB DEPTH DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY ENHANCE
SNOWFALL RATES WITH RATIOS CLOSER TO 15 OT 1 BY LATE DAY.

ADDING TO THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPS DURING THE DAY AS COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. EXPECT TEMPS INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY SUNSET MONDAY. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE
POPS AND BEEF UP WORDING FOR IMPACTS IN THE HWO. POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO
2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE PRESENCE OF A
TROWAL BENDING BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY MAINTAINING
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS OVER
THE WEEKEND AS TEMPS HAVE OVERACHIEVED THE LAST FEW DAYS WHEN THE
SUN HAS BEEN PRESENT. INDICATED MORNING HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPS THE REST OF THE DAY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. USED A
MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW
SITUATED OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA AND THE SURFACE LOW ENTERING THE
NORTHEAST U.S.  COLDER AIR WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY
NIGHT...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  AFTER SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
TRAVERSES ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 051800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
NOTHING THAT WILL IMPACT FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL START OUT
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...BECOMING VARIABLE AND LIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 051732
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1232 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES ON SATURDAY...BUT AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK...BRINGING COLD CONDITIONS AND
FREQUENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING PROVIDING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. AREA OF LOWER STRATUS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS
HAS SLIPPED INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS OF 15Z.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE OTHER THAN TO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS TO ADVANCING CLOUD COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL STEADILY WEAKEN FURTHER
AS IT SWINGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
RAP RH PROGS SUGGEST A CONTINUED EASTWARD DRIFT TO THE LOWER
STRATUS DECK OVER NORTHWEST COUNTIES...EVENTUALLY BEING OVERTAKEN
BY MORE EXPANSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE MISSOURI
VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BY LATE DAY.

NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY WHERE THE EXPANDING
STRATUS DECK WILL LIMIT WARMING MORE THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED FOR MOST ITEMS.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

ON SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAKENING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE IN. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER. MODEL QPF IS
DRY...AND SREF PROBABILITIES ARE QUITE LOW. HOWEVER...MOS IS GIVING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

FEEL THAT ODDS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION...BUT DID KEEP A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE WEAK LIFT AND TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY
BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO KEPT SUNDAY DRY. AN UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS PLUS COLD ADVECTION YIELDS LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WENT RAIN/SNOW MIX AS COLD AIR MOVES IN.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS ARE
SHOWING MOISTURE DEEPENING ON MONDAY. THAT COMBINED WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL RESULT IN DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL AND BUFKIT CRITICAL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUGGEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE MONDAY WILL BE SNOW.
HOWEVER...WITH REGIONAL BLEND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...LEFT IT A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW. BY LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY...ALL THE PRECIPITATION UNDOUBTEDLY BE SNOW. ONE FINAL WAVE
ON BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH COULD BRING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET EARLY TO MID WEEK PER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES ANTI-CYCLONIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATE WEEK.

MODEL LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL REGIONAL BLEND
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 051800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
NOTHING THAT WILL IMPACT FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL START OUT
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...BECOMING VARIABLE AND LIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 051512
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1012 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES ON SATURDAY...BUT AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK...BRINGING COLD CONDITIONS AND
FREQUENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING PROVIDING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. AREA OF LOWER STRATUS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS
HAS SLIPPED INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS OF 15Z.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE OTHER THAN TO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS TO ADVANCING CLOUD COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL STEADILY WEAKEN FURTHER
AS IT SWINGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
RAP RH PROGS SUGGEST A CONTINUED EASTWARD DRIFT TO THE LOWER
STRATUS DECK OVER NORTHWEST COUNTIES...EVENTUALLY BEING OVERTAKEN
BY MORE EXPANSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE MISSOURI
VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BY LATE DAY.

NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY WHERE THE EXPANDING
STRATUS DECK WILL LIMIT WARMING MORE THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED FOR MOST ITEMS.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

ON SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAKENING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE IN. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER. MODEL QPF IS
DRY...AND SREF PROBABILITIES ARE QUITE LOW. HOWEVER...MOS IS GIVING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

FEEL THAT ODDS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION...BUT DID KEEP A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE WEAK LIFT AND TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY
BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO KEPT SUNDAY DRY. AN UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS PLUS COLD ADVECTION YIELDS LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WENT RAIN/SNOW MIX AS COLD AIR MOVES IN.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS ARE
SHOWING MOISTURE DEEPENING ON MONDAY. THAT COMBINED WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL RESULT IN DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL AND BUFKIT CRITICAL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUGGEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE MONDAY WILL BE SNOW.
HOWEVER...WITH REGIONAL BLEND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...LEFT IT A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW. BY LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY...ALL THE PRECIPITATION UNDOUBTEDLY BE SNOW. ONE FINAL WAVE
ON BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH COULD BRING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET EARLY TO MID WEEK PER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES ANTI-CYCLONIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATE WEEK.

MODEL LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL REGIONAL BLEND
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 051200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 515 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS TODAY...MAINLY AFTER 14Z
AND AT LAF. HOWEVER...LATEST LAMP AND SREF BOTH SUGGEST CHANCES OF
MVFR ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE CIRRUS INCREASE
TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. FINALLY...SHOULD SEE AC
AND VFR STRATOCU INCREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY.

LIGHT SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST NEAR 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AGAIN AFTER 23Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 051411
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
911 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES ON SATURDAY...BUT AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK...BRINGING COLD CONDITIONS AND
FREQUENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

ALTHOUGH UPPER HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TODAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE
AREA...MAINLY NORTH. ALSO...HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE PLAINS CURRENTLY
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA.

THE RESULT WILL BE SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY.

MET MOS LOOKS TOO COLD FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED FOR MOST ITEMS.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

ON SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAKENING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE IN. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER. MODEL QPF IS
DRY...AND SREF PROBABILITIES ARE QUITE LOW. HOWEVER...MOS IS GIVING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

FEEL THAT ODDS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION...BUT DID KEEP A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE WEAK LIFT AND TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY
BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO KEPT SUNDAY DRY. AN UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS PLUS COLD ADVECTION YIELDS LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WENT RAIN/SNOW MIX AS COLD AIR MOVES IN.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS ARE
SHOWING MOISTURE DEEPENING ON MONDAY. THAT COMBINED WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL RESULT IN DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL AND BUFKIT CRITICAL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUGGEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE MONDAY WILL BE SNOW.
HOWEVER...WITH REGIONAL BLEND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...LEFT IT A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW. BY LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY...ALL THE PRECIPITATION UNDOUBTEDLY BE SNOW. ONE FINAL WAVE
ON BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH COULD BRING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET EARLY TO MID WEEK PER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES ANTI-CYCLONIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATE WEEK.

MODEL LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL REGIONAL BLEND
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. &&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 051200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 515 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS TODAY...MAINLY AFTER 14Z
AND AT LAF. HOWEVER...LATEST LAMP AND SREF BOTH SUGGEST CHANCES OF
MVFR ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE CIRRUS INCREASE
TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. FINALLY...SHOULD SEE AC
AND VFR STRATOCU INCREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY.

LIGHT SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST NEAR 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AGAIN AFTER 23Z.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 910 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATE...
NO FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS TODAY...MAINLY AFTER 14Z
AND AT LAF. HOWEVER...LATEST LAMP AND SREF BOTH SUGGEST CHANCES OF
MVFR ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE CIRRUS INCREASE
TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. FINALLY...SHOULD SEE AC
AND VFR STRATOCU INCREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY.

LIGHT SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST NEAR 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AGAIN AFTER 23Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 051015 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
515 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES ON SATURDAY...BUT AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK...BRINGING COLD CONDITIONS AND
FREQUENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

ALTHOUGH UPPER HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TODAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE
AREA...MAINLY NORTH. ALSO...HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE PLAINS CURRENTLY
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA.

THE RESULT WILL BE SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY.

MET MOS LOOKS TOO COLD FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED FOR MOST ITEMS.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

ON SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAKENING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE IN. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER. MODEL QPF IS
DRY...AND SREF PROBABILITIES ARE QUITE LOW. HOWEVER...MOS IS GIVING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

FEEL THAT ODDS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION...BUT DID KEEP A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE WEAK LIFT AND TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY
BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO KEPT SUNDAY DRY. AN UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS PLUS COLD ADVECTION YIELDS LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WENT RAIN/SNOW MIX AS COLD AIR MOVES IN.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS ARE
SHOWING MOISTURE DEEPENING ON MONDAY. THAT COMBINED WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL RESULT IN DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL AND BUFKIT CRITICAL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUGGEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE MONDAY WILL BE SNOW.
HOWEVER...WITH REGIONAL BLEND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...LEFT IT A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW. BY LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY...ALL THE PRECIPITATION UNDOUBTEDLY BE SNOW. ONE FINAL WAVE
ON BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH COULD BRING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET EARLY TO MID WEEK PER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES ANTI-CYCLONIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATE WEEK.

MODEL LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL REGIONAL BLEND
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. &&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 051200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 515 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS TODAY...MAINLY AFTER 14Z
AND AT LAF. HOWEVER...LATEST LAMP AND SREF BOTH SUGGEST CHANCES OF
MVFR ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE CIRRUS INCREASE
TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. FINALLY...SHOULD SEE AC
AND VFR STRATOCU INCREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY.

LIGHT SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST NEAR 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AGAIN AFTER 23Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 051015 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
515 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES ON SATURDAY...BUT AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK...BRINGING COLD CONDITIONS AND
FREQUENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

ALTHOUGH UPPER HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TODAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE
AREA...MAINLY NORTH. ALSO...HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE PLAINS CURRENTLY
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA.

THE RESULT WILL BE SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY.

MET MOS LOOKS TOO COLD FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED FOR MOST ITEMS.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

ON SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAKENING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE IN. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER. MODEL QPF IS
DRY...AND SREF PROBABILITIES ARE QUITE LOW. HOWEVER...MOS IS GIVING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

FEEL THAT ODDS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION...BUT DID KEEP A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE WEAK LIFT AND TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY
BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO KEPT SUNDAY DRY. AN UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS PLUS COLD ADVECTION YIELDS LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WENT RAIN/SNOW MIX AS COLD AIR MOVES IN.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS ARE
SHOWING MOISTURE DEEPENING ON MONDAY. THAT COMBINED WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL RESULT IN DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL AND BUFKIT CRITICAL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUGGEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE MONDAY WILL BE SNOW.
HOWEVER...WITH REGIONAL BLEND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...LEFT IT A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW. BY LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY...ALL THE PRECIPITATION UNDOUBTEDLY BE SNOW. ONE FINAL WAVE
ON BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH COULD BRING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET EARLY TO MID WEEK PER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES ANTI-CYCLONIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATE WEEK.

MODEL LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL REGIONAL BLEND
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. &&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 051200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 515 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS TODAY...MAINLY AFTER 14Z
AND AT LAF. HOWEVER...LATEST LAMP AND SREF BOTH SUGGEST CHANCES OF
MVFR ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE CIRRUS INCREASE
TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. FINALLY...SHOULD SEE AC
AND VFR STRATOCU INCREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY.

LIGHT SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST NEAR 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AGAIN AFTER 23Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 051015 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
515 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES ON SATURDAY...BUT AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK...BRINGING COLD CONDITIONS AND
FREQUENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

ALTHOUGH UPPER HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TODAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE
AREA...MAINLY NORTH. ALSO...HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE PLAINS CURRENTLY
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA.

THE RESULT WILL BE SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY.

MET MOS LOOKS TOO COLD FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED FOR MOST ITEMS.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

ON SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAKENING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE IN. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER. MODEL QPF IS
DRY...AND SREF PROBABILITIES ARE QUITE LOW. HOWEVER...MOS IS GIVING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

FEEL THAT ODDS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION...BUT DID KEEP A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE WEAK LIFT AND TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY
BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO KEPT SUNDAY DRY. AN UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS PLUS COLD ADVECTION YIELDS LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WENT RAIN/SNOW MIX AS COLD AIR MOVES IN.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS ARE
SHOWING MOISTURE DEEPENING ON MONDAY. THAT COMBINED WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL RESULT IN DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL AND BUFKIT CRITICAL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUGGEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE MONDAY WILL BE SNOW.
HOWEVER...WITH REGIONAL BLEND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...LEFT IT A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW. BY LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY...ALL THE PRECIPITATION UNDOUBTEDLY BE SNOW. ONE FINAL WAVE
ON BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH COULD BRING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET EARLY TO MID WEEK PER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES ANTI-CYCLONIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATE WEEK.

MODEL LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL REGIONAL BLEND
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. &&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 051200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 515 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS TODAY...MAINLY AFTER 14Z
AND AT LAF. HOWEVER...LATEST LAMP AND SREF BOTH SUGGEST CHANCES OF
MVFR ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE CIRRUS INCREASE
TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. FINALLY...SHOULD SEE AC
AND VFR STRATOCU INCREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY.

LIGHT SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST NEAR 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AGAIN AFTER 23Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 050825 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
325 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES ON SATURDAY...BUT AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK...BRINGING COLD CONDITIONS AND
FREQUENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

ALTHOUGH UPPER HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TODAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE
AREA...MAINLY NORTH. ALSO...HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE PLAINS CURRENTLY
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA.

THE RESULT WILL BE SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY.

MET MOS LOOKS TOO COLD FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED FOR MOST ITEMS.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

ON SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAKENING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE IN. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER. MODEL QPF IS
DRY...AND SREF PROBABILITIES ARE QUITE LOW. HOWEVER...MOS IS GIVING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

FEEL THAT ODDS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION...BUT DID KEEP A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE WEAK LIFT AND TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY
BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO KEPT SUNDAY DRY. AN UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS PLUS COLD ADVECTION YIELDS LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WENT RAIN/SNOW MIX AS COLD AIR MOVES IN.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS ARE
SHOWING MOISTURE DEEPENING ON MONDAY. THAT COMBINED WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL RESULT IN DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL AND BUFKIT CRITICAL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUGGEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE MONDAY WILL BE SNOW.
HOWEVER...WITH REGIONAL BLEND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...LEFT IT A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW. BY LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY...ALL THE PRECIPITATION UNDOUBTEDLY BE SNOW. ONE FINAL WAVE
ON BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH COULD BRING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET EARLY TO MID WEEK PER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES ANTI-CYCLONIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATE WEEK.

MODEL LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL REGIONAL BLEND
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. &&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 4-8 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY MID
MORNING AND STAY THERE THROUGH THE DAY. DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FEW TO SCATTERED
CU AROUND 5 KFT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP/MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 050825 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
325 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES ON SATURDAY...BUT AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK...BRINGING COLD CONDITIONS AND
FREQUENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

ALTHOUGH UPPER HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TODAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE
AREA...MAINLY NORTH. ALSO...HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE PLAINS CURRENTLY
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA.

THE RESULT WILL BE SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY.

MET MOS LOOKS TOO COLD FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED FOR MOST ITEMS.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

ON SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAKENING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE IN. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER. MODEL QPF IS
DRY...AND SREF PROBABILITIES ARE QUITE LOW. HOWEVER...MOS IS GIVING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

FEEL THAT ODDS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION...BUT DID KEEP A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE WEAK LIFT AND TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY
BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO KEPT SUNDAY DRY. AN UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS PLUS COLD ADVECTION YIELDS LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WENT RAIN/SNOW MIX AS COLD AIR MOVES IN.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS ARE
SHOWING MOISTURE DEEPENING ON MONDAY. THAT COMBINED WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL RESULT IN DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL AND BUFKIT CRITICAL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUGGEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE MONDAY WILL BE SNOW.
HOWEVER...WITH REGIONAL BLEND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...LEFT IT A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW. BY LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY...ALL THE PRECIPITATION UNDOUBTEDLY BE SNOW. ONE FINAL WAVE
ON BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH COULD BRING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET EARLY TO MID WEEK PER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES ANTI-CYCLONIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATE WEEK.

MODEL LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL REGIONAL BLEND
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. &&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 4-8 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY MID
MORNING AND STAY THERE THROUGH THE DAY. DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FEW TO SCATTERED
CU AROUND 5 KFT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP/MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 050742 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM...AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES ON SATURDAY...BUT AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK...BRINGING COLD CONDITIONS AND
FREQUENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

ALTHOUGH UPPER HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TODAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE
AREA...MAINLY NORTH. ALSO...HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE PLAINS CURRENTLY
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA.

THE RESULT WILL BE SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY.

MET MOS LOOKS TOO COLD FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED FOR MOST ITEMS.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

ON SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAKENING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE IN. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER. MODEL QPF IS
DRY...AND SREF PROBABILITIES ARE QUITE LOW. HOWEVER...MOS IS GIVING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

FEEL THAT ODDS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION...BUT DID KEEP A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE WEAK LIFT AND TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY
BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO KEPT SUNDAY DRY. AN UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS PLUS COLD ADVECTION YIELDS LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WENT RAIN/SNOW MIX AS COLD AIR MOVES IN.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS ARE
SHOWING MOISTURE DEEPENING ON MONDAY. THAT COMBINED WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL RESULT IN DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL AND BUFKIT CRITICAL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUGGEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE MONDAY WILL BE SNOW.
HOWEVER...WITH REGIONAL BLEND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...LEFT IT A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW. BY LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY...ALL THE PRECIPITATION UNDOUBTEDLY BE SNOW. ONE FINAL WAVE
ON BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH COULD BRING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET EARLY TO MID WEEK PER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES ANTI-CYCLONIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATE WEEK.

MODEL LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL REGIONAL BLEND
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. &&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1128 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 4-8 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY MID
MORNING AND STAY THERE THROUGH THE DAY. DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FEW TO SCATTERED
CU AROUND 5 KFT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 050739 RRA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
238 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PRIMARILY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER LOW FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
BY EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...CLEAR SKIES WERE OCCURRING OVER MOST AREAS WITH ONLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS
OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHILE A
FEW CLOUDS SPREAD INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WILL DROP MINIMUMS A DEGREE OR
TWO SOME AREAS.  OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS OUR REGION MOVES TO THE EAST WITH SOME
WARM ADVECTION BY MORNING. ALL IN ALL THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK.

PORTION OF PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAY SEE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT
AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT A GENERAL MOS BLEND FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT FOR MOST IN ABOUT A WEEK AS LOWS
SETTLE INTO THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...AS THE OHIO
VALLEY ENJOYS A SEASONABLY MILD FEW DAYS BEFORE BIG CHANGES ARRIVE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 HIGHLIGHTED
BY MULTIPLE RIDGES AND TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO AN
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
IMPACTS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE MINIMAL TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
WEEKEND...LIMITING TO LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW
WILL HAVE A MUCH LARGER IMPACT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SERVES TO
CARVE OUT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U S.

THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER WILL BE
LARGELY TRANQUIL. AFTER A PLEASANT DAY FRIDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE. THE
WAVE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP SATURDAY AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. LIMITED FORCING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL BE MITIGATING FACTORS IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS
THE WAVE PASSES. HAVE HELD ONTO A LOW CHANCE POP TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH
PROGS ARE BOTH SUGGESTIVE THAN ANY PRECIP MAY FALL SIMPLY AS
FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES AS THE LOWER LEVELS WARM. EVEN WITH MORE
CLOUDS SATURDAY...STILL EXPECT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE
WITH THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE
DAY SUNDAY AND MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH
VALLEY PRIOR TO 00Z.

TEMPS...GENERALLY FELT A MOS BLEND WAS SUFFICIENT FOR HIGHS
FRIDAY...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY AS
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAKING A
PUSH FOR 50 DEGREES. UTILIZED THE MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 238 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS ARE
SHOWING MOISTURE DEEPENING ON MONDAY. THAT COMBINED WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL RESULT IN DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL AND BUFKIT CRITICAL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUGGEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE MONDAY WILL BE SNOW.
HOWEVER...WITH REGIONAL BLEND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...LEFT IT A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW. BY LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY...ALL THE PRECIPITATION UNDOUBTEDLY BE SNOW. ONE FINAL WAVE
ON BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH COULD BRING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET EARLY TO MID WEEK PER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES ANTI-CYCLONIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATE WEEK.

MODEL LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL REGIONAL BLEND
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1128 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 4-8 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY MID
MORNING AND STAY THERE THROUGH THE DAY. DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FEW TO SCATTERED
CU AROUND 5 KFT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 050739
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES ON SATURDAY...BUT AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK...BRINGING COLD CONDITIONS AND
FREQUENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

ALTHOUGH UPPER HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TODAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE
AREA...MAINLY NORTH. ALSO...HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE PLAINS CURRENTLY
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA.

THE RESULT WILL BE SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY.

MET MOS LOOKS TOO COLD FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED FOR MOST ITEMS.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

ON SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAKENING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE IN. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER. MODEL QPF IS
DRY...AND SREF PROBABILITIES ARE QUITE LOW. HOWEVER...MOS IS GIVING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

FEEL THAT ODDS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION...BUT DID KEEP A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE WEAK LIFT AND TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY
BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO KEPT SUNDAY DRY. AN UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS PLUS COLD ADVECTION YIELDS LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WENT RAIN/SNOW MIX AS COLD AIR MOVES IN.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.  AS COOLER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.  THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...A VERY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. AS A RESULT...MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ON DAYS 7 AND 8.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL RETURN TO NORMAL WHEN COLDER AIR
INFILTRATES THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1128 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 4-8 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY MID
MORNING AND STAY THERE THROUGH THE DAY. DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FEW TO SCATTERED
CU AROUND 5 KFT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 050436
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1136 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PRIMARILY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER LOW FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
BY EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...CLEAR SKIES WERE OCCURRING OVER MOST AREAS WITH ONLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS
OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHILE A
FEW CLOUDS SPREAD INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WILL DROP MINIMUMS A DEGREE OR
TWO SOME AREAS.  OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS OUR REGION MOVES TO THE EAST WITH SOME
WARM ADVECTION BY MORNING. ALL IN ALL THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK.

PORTION OF PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAY SEE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT
AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT A GENERAL MOS BLEND FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT FOR MOST IN ABOUT A WEEK AS LOWS
SETTLE INTO THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...AS THE OHIO
VALLEY ENJOYS A SEASONABLY MILD FEW DAYS BEFORE BIG CHANGES ARRIVE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 HIGHLIGHTED
BY MULTIPLE RIDGES AND TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO AN
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
IMPACTS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE MINIMAL TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
WEEKEND...LIMITING TO LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW
WILL HAVE A MUCH LARGER IMPACT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SERVES TO
CARVE OUT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U S.

THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER WILL BE
LARGELY TRANQUIL. AFTER A PLEASANT DAY FRIDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE. THE
WAVE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP SATURDAY AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. LIMITED FORCING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL BE MITIGATING FACTORS IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS
THE WAVE PASSES. HAVE HELD ONTO A LOW CHANCE POP TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH
PROGS ARE BOTH SUGGESTIVE THAN ANY PRECIP MAY FALL SIMPLY AS
FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES AS THE LOWER LEVELS WARM. EVEN WITH MORE
CLOUDS SATURDAY...STILL EXPECT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE
WITH THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE
DAY SUNDAY AND MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH
VALLEY PRIOR TO 00Z.

TEMPS...GENERALLY FELT A MOS BLEND WAS SUFFICIENT FOR HIGHS
FRIDAY...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY AS
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAKING A
PUSH FOR 50 DEGREES. UTILIZED THE MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.  AS COOLER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.  THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...A VERY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. AS A RESULT...MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ON DAYS 7 AND 8.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL RETURN TO NORMAL WHEN COLDER AIR
INFILTRATES THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1128 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 4-8 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY MID
MORNING AND STAY THERE THROUGH THE DAY. DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FEW TO SCATTERED
CU AROUND 5 KFT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 050436
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1136 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PRIMARILY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER LOW FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
BY EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...CLEAR SKIES WERE OCCURRING OVER MOST AREAS WITH ONLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS
OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHILE A
FEW CLOUDS SPREAD INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WILL DROP MINIMUMS A DEGREE OR
TWO SOME AREAS.  OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS OUR REGION MOVES TO THE EAST WITH SOME
WARM ADVECTION BY MORNING. ALL IN ALL THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK.

PORTION OF PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAY SEE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT
AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT A GENERAL MOS BLEND FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT FOR MOST IN ABOUT A WEEK AS LOWS
SETTLE INTO THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...AS THE OHIO
VALLEY ENJOYS A SEASONABLY MILD FEW DAYS BEFORE BIG CHANGES ARRIVE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 HIGHLIGHTED
BY MULTIPLE RIDGES AND TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO AN
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
IMPACTS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE MINIMAL TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
WEEKEND...LIMITING TO LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW
WILL HAVE A MUCH LARGER IMPACT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SERVES TO
CARVE OUT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U S.

THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER WILL BE
LARGELY TRANQUIL. AFTER A PLEASANT DAY FRIDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE. THE
WAVE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP SATURDAY AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. LIMITED FORCING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL BE MITIGATING FACTORS IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS
THE WAVE PASSES. HAVE HELD ONTO A LOW CHANCE POP TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH
PROGS ARE BOTH SUGGESTIVE THAN ANY PRECIP MAY FALL SIMPLY AS
FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES AS THE LOWER LEVELS WARM. EVEN WITH MORE
CLOUDS SATURDAY...STILL EXPECT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE
WITH THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE
DAY SUNDAY AND MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH
VALLEY PRIOR TO 00Z.

TEMPS...GENERALLY FELT A MOS BLEND WAS SUFFICIENT FOR HIGHS
FRIDAY...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY AS
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAKING A
PUSH FOR 50 DEGREES. UTILIZED THE MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.  AS COOLER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.  THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...A VERY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. AS A RESULT...MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ON DAYS 7 AND 8.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL RETURN TO NORMAL WHEN COLDER AIR
INFILTRATES THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1128 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 4-8 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY MID
MORNING AND STAY THERE THROUGH THE DAY. DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FEW TO SCATTERED
CU AROUND 5 KFT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 050436
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1136 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PRIMARILY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER LOW FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
BY EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...CLEAR SKIES WERE OCCURRING OVER MOST AREAS WITH ONLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS
OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHILE A
FEW CLOUDS SPREAD INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WILL DROP MINIMUMS A DEGREE OR
TWO SOME AREAS.  OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS OUR REGION MOVES TO THE EAST WITH SOME
WARM ADVECTION BY MORNING. ALL IN ALL THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK.

PORTION OF PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAY SEE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT
AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT A GENERAL MOS BLEND FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT FOR MOST IN ABOUT A WEEK AS LOWS
SETTLE INTO THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...AS THE OHIO
VALLEY ENJOYS A SEASONABLY MILD FEW DAYS BEFORE BIG CHANGES ARRIVE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 HIGHLIGHTED
BY MULTIPLE RIDGES AND TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO AN
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
IMPACTS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE MINIMAL TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
WEEKEND...LIMITING TO LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW
WILL HAVE A MUCH LARGER IMPACT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SERVES TO
CARVE OUT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U S.

THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER WILL BE
LARGELY TRANQUIL. AFTER A PLEASANT DAY FRIDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE. THE
WAVE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP SATURDAY AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. LIMITED FORCING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL BE MITIGATING FACTORS IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS
THE WAVE PASSES. HAVE HELD ONTO A LOW CHANCE POP TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH
PROGS ARE BOTH SUGGESTIVE THAN ANY PRECIP MAY FALL SIMPLY AS
FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES AS THE LOWER LEVELS WARM. EVEN WITH MORE
CLOUDS SATURDAY...STILL EXPECT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE
WITH THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE
DAY SUNDAY AND MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH
VALLEY PRIOR TO 00Z.

TEMPS...GENERALLY FELT A MOS BLEND WAS SUFFICIENT FOR HIGHS
FRIDAY...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY AS
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAKING A
PUSH FOR 50 DEGREES. UTILIZED THE MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.  AS COOLER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.  THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...A VERY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. AS A RESULT...MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ON DAYS 7 AND 8.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL RETURN TO NORMAL WHEN COLDER AIR
INFILTRATES THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1128 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 4-8 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY MID
MORNING AND STAY THERE THROUGH THE DAY. DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FEW TO SCATTERED
CU AROUND 5 KFT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 050250
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
950 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PRIMARILY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER LOW FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
BY EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...CLEAR SKIES WERE OCCURRING OVER MOST AREAS WITH ONLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS
OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHILE A
FEW CLOUDS SPREAD INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WILL DROP MINIMUMS A DEGREE OR
TWO SOME AREAS.  OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS OUR REGION MOVES TO THE EAST WITH SOME
WARM ADVECTION BY MORNING. ALL IN ALL THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK.

PORTION OF PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAY SEE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT
AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT A GENERAL MOS BLEND FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT FOR MOST IN ABOUT A WEEK AS LOWS
SETTLE INTO THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...AS THE OHIO
VALLEY ENJOYS A SEASONABLY MILD FEW DAYS BEFORE BIG CHANGES ARRIVE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 HIGHLIGHTED
BY MULTIPLE RIDGES AND TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO AN
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
IMPACTS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE MINIMAL TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
WEEKEND...LIMITING TO LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW
WILL HAVE A MUCH LARGER IMPACT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SERVES TO
CARVE OUT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U S.

THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER WILL BE
LARGELY TRANQUIL. AFTER A PLEASANT DAY FRIDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE. THE
WAVE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP SATURDAY AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. LIMITED FORCING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL BE MITIGATING FACTORS IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS
THE WAVE PASSES. HAVE HELD ONTO A LOW CHANCE POP TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH
PROGS ARE BOTH SUGGESTIVE THAN ANY PRECIP MAY FALL SIMPLY AS
FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES AS THE LOWER LEVELS WARM. EVEN WITH MORE
CLOUDS SATURDAY...STILL EXPECT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE
WITH THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE
DAY SUNDAY AND MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH
VALLEY PRIOR TO 00Z.

TEMPS...GENERALLY FELT A MOS BLEND WAS SUFFICIENT FOR HIGHS
FRIDAY...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY AS
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAKING A
PUSH FOR 50 DEGREES. UTILIZED THE MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.  AS COOLER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.  THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...A VERY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. AS A RESULT...MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ON DAYS 7 AND 8.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL RETURN TO NORMAL WHEN COLDER AIR
INFILTRATES THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 913 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ONLY SOME 10 KFT
CLOUDS ROLLING THROUGH. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 6 KTS OUT OF THE
WNW BUT DRY AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE ARE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN THAT COULD MOVE
IN TO THE SITES SOMETIME IN THE 12-18Z TIMEFRAME BUT MODELS DEPICT
THESE CLOUDS BREAKING UP AS THEY HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO HIGHER
PRESSURE. WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NEXT
ISSUANCE. BY MID MORNING FRIDAY WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 050213
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
913 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PRIMARILY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER LOW FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
BY EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

SLOWLY BUT SURELY...THE CLEARING AND SUNSHINE IS PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE...WITH PEAKS OF BLUE SKY NOW ABOUT HALFWAY
ACROSS THE STATE INCLUDING THE INDY METRO. DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED EAST ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE ALOFT...WITH JUST A FEW
LINGERING FLURRIES LEFT IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS REMAINED IN
THE UPPER 20S NEAR AND NORTH OF I-70 WITH LOW TO MID 30S OVER
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL ENJOY MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAY SEE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT
AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. OUTSIDE OF A
STRAY FLURRY...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING
ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
WAVE ALOFT PASSES.

TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT A GENERAL MOS BLEND FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT FOR MOST IN ABOUT A WEEK AS LOWS
SETTLE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...AS THE OHIO
VALLEY ENJOYS A SEASONABLY MILD FEW DAYS BEFORE BIG CHANGES ARRIVE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 HIGHLIGHTED
BY MULTIPLE RIDGES AND TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO AN
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
IMPACTS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE MINIMAL TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
WEEKEND...LIMITING TO LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW
WILL HAVE A MUCH LARGER IMPACT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SERVES TO
CARVE OUT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U S.

THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER WILL BE
LARGELY TRANQUIL. AFTER A PLEASANT DAY FRIDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE. THE
WAVE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP SATURDAY AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. LIMITED FORCING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL BE MITIGATING FACTORS IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS
THE WAVE PASSES. HAVE HELD ONTO A LOW CHANCE POP TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH
PROGS ARE BOTH SUGGESTIVE THAN ANY PRECIP MAY FALL SIMPLY AS
FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES AS THE LOWER LEVELS WARM. EVEN WITH MORE
CLOUDS SATURDAY...STILL EXPECT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE
WITH THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE
DAY SUNDAY AND MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH
VALLEY PRIOR TO 00Z.

TEMPS...GENERALLY FELT A MOS BLEND WAS SUFFICIENT FOR HIGHS
FRIDAY...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY AS
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAKING A
PUSH FOR 50 DEGREES. UTILIZED THE MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.  AS COOLER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.  THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...A VERY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. AS A RESULT...MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ON DAYS 7 AND 8.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL RETURN TO NORMAL WHEN COLDER AIR
INFILTRATES THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 913 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ONLY SOME 10 KFT
CLOUDS ROLLING THROUGH. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 6 KTS OUT OF THE
WNW BUT DRY AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE ARE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN THAT COULD MOVE
IN TO THE SITES SOMETIME IN THE 12-18Z TIMEFRAME BUT MODELS DEPICT
THESE CLOUDS BREAKING UP AS THEY HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO HIGHER
PRESSURE. WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NEXT
ISSUANCE. BY MID MORNING FRIDAY WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 050213
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
913 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PRIMARILY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER LOW FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
BY EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

SLOWLY BUT SURELY...THE CLEARING AND SUNSHINE IS PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE...WITH PEAKS OF BLUE SKY NOW ABOUT HALFWAY
ACROSS THE STATE INCLUDING THE INDY METRO. DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED EAST ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE ALOFT...WITH JUST A FEW
LINGERING FLURRIES LEFT IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS REMAINED IN
THE UPPER 20S NEAR AND NORTH OF I-70 WITH LOW TO MID 30S OVER
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL ENJOY MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAY SEE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT
AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. OUTSIDE OF A
STRAY FLURRY...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING
ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
WAVE ALOFT PASSES.

TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT A GENERAL MOS BLEND FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT FOR MOST IN ABOUT A WEEK AS LOWS
SETTLE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...AS THE OHIO
VALLEY ENJOYS A SEASONABLY MILD FEW DAYS BEFORE BIG CHANGES ARRIVE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 HIGHLIGHTED
BY MULTIPLE RIDGES AND TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO AN
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
IMPACTS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE MINIMAL TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
WEEKEND...LIMITING TO LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW
WILL HAVE A MUCH LARGER IMPACT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SERVES TO
CARVE OUT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U S.

THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER WILL BE
LARGELY TRANQUIL. AFTER A PLEASANT DAY FRIDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE. THE
WAVE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP SATURDAY AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. LIMITED FORCING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL BE MITIGATING FACTORS IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS
THE WAVE PASSES. HAVE HELD ONTO A LOW CHANCE POP TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH
PROGS ARE BOTH SUGGESTIVE THAN ANY PRECIP MAY FALL SIMPLY AS
FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES AS THE LOWER LEVELS WARM. EVEN WITH MORE
CLOUDS SATURDAY...STILL EXPECT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE
WITH THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE
DAY SUNDAY AND MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH
VALLEY PRIOR TO 00Z.

TEMPS...GENERALLY FELT A MOS BLEND WAS SUFFICIENT FOR HIGHS
FRIDAY...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY AS
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAKING A
PUSH FOR 50 DEGREES. UTILIZED THE MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.  AS COOLER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.  THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...A VERY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. AS A RESULT...MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ON DAYS 7 AND 8.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL RETURN TO NORMAL WHEN COLDER AIR
INFILTRATES THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 913 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ONLY SOME 10 KFT
CLOUDS ROLLING THROUGH. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 6 KTS OUT OF THE
WNW BUT DRY AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE ARE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN THAT COULD MOVE
IN TO THE SITES SOMETIME IN THE 12-18Z TIMEFRAME BUT MODELS DEPICT
THESE CLOUDS BREAKING UP AS THEY HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO HIGHER
PRESSURE. WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NEXT
ISSUANCE. BY MID MORNING FRIDAY WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 050213
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
913 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PRIMARILY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER LOW FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
BY EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

SLOWLY BUT SURELY...THE CLEARING AND SUNSHINE IS PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE...WITH PEAKS OF BLUE SKY NOW ABOUT HALFWAY
ACROSS THE STATE INCLUDING THE INDY METRO. DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED EAST ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE ALOFT...WITH JUST A FEW
LINGERING FLURRIES LEFT IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS REMAINED IN
THE UPPER 20S NEAR AND NORTH OF I-70 WITH LOW TO MID 30S OVER
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL ENJOY MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAY SEE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT
AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. OUTSIDE OF A
STRAY FLURRY...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING
ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
WAVE ALOFT PASSES.

TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT A GENERAL MOS BLEND FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT FOR MOST IN ABOUT A WEEK AS LOWS
SETTLE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...AS THE OHIO
VALLEY ENJOYS A SEASONABLY MILD FEW DAYS BEFORE BIG CHANGES ARRIVE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 HIGHLIGHTED
BY MULTIPLE RIDGES AND TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO AN
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
IMPACTS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE MINIMAL TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
WEEKEND...LIMITING TO LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW
WILL HAVE A MUCH LARGER IMPACT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SERVES TO
CARVE OUT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U S.

THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER WILL BE
LARGELY TRANQUIL. AFTER A PLEASANT DAY FRIDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE. THE
WAVE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP SATURDAY AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. LIMITED FORCING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL BE MITIGATING FACTORS IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS
THE WAVE PASSES. HAVE HELD ONTO A LOW CHANCE POP TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH
PROGS ARE BOTH SUGGESTIVE THAN ANY PRECIP MAY FALL SIMPLY AS
FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES AS THE LOWER LEVELS WARM. EVEN WITH MORE
CLOUDS SATURDAY...STILL EXPECT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE
WITH THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE
DAY SUNDAY AND MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH
VALLEY PRIOR TO 00Z.

TEMPS...GENERALLY FELT A MOS BLEND WAS SUFFICIENT FOR HIGHS
FRIDAY...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY AS
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAKING A
PUSH FOR 50 DEGREES. UTILIZED THE MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.  AS COOLER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.  THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...A VERY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. AS A RESULT...MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ON DAYS 7 AND 8.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL RETURN TO NORMAL WHEN COLDER AIR
INFILTRATES THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 913 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ONLY SOME 10 KFT
CLOUDS ROLLING THROUGH. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 6 KTS OUT OF THE
WNW BUT DRY AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE ARE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN THAT COULD MOVE
IN TO THE SITES SOMETIME IN THE 12-18Z TIMEFRAME BUT MODELS DEPICT
THESE CLOUDS BREAKING UP AS THEY HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO HIGHER
PRESSURE. WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NEXT
ISSUANCE. BY MID MORNING FRIDAY WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 042305
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
605 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PRIMARILY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER LOW FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
BY EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

SLOWLY BUT SURELY...THE CLEARING AND SUNSHINE IS PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE...WITH PEAKS OF BLUE SKY NOW ABOUT HALFWAY
ACROSS THE STATE INCLUDING THE INDY METRO. DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED EAST ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE ALOFT...WITH JUST A FEW
LINGERING FLURRIES LEFT IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS REMAINED IN
THE UPPER 20S NEAR AND NORTH OF I-70 WITH LOW TO MID 30S OVER
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL ENJOY MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAY SEE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT
AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. OUTSIDE OF A
STRAY FLURRY...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING
ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
WAVE ALOFT PASSES.

TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT A GENERAL MOS BLEND FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT FOR MOST IN ABOUT A WEEK AS LOWS
SETTLE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...AS THE OHIO
VALLEY ENJOYS A SEASONABLY MILD FEW DAYS BEFORE BIG CHANGES ARRIVE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 HIGHLIGHTED
BY MULTIPLE RIDGES AND TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO AN
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
IMPACTS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE MINIMAL TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
WEEKEND...LIMITING TO LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW
WILL HAVE A MUCH LARGER IMPACT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SERVES TO
CARVE OUT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U S.

THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER WILL BE
LARGELY TRANQUIL. AFTER A PLEASANT DAY FRIDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE. THE
WAVE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP SATURDAY AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. LIMITED FORCING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL BE MITIGATING FACTORS IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS
THE WAVE PASSES. HAVE HELD ONTO A LOW CHANCE POP TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH
PROGS ARE BOTH SUGGESTIVE THAN ANY PRECIP MAY FALL SIMPLY AS
FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES AS THE LOWER LEVELS WARM. EVEN WITH MORE
CLOUDS SATURDAY...STILL EXPECT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE
WITH THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE
DAY SUNDAY AND MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH
VALLEY PRIOR TO 00Z.

TEMPS...GENERALLY FELT A MOS BLEND WAS SUFFICIENT FOR HIGHS
FRIDAY...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY AS
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAKING A
PUSH FOR 50 DEGREES. UTILIZED THE MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.  AS COOLER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.  THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...A VERY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. AS A RESULT...MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ON DAYS 7 AND 8.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL RETURN TO NORMAL WHEN COLDER AIR
INFILTRATES THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 546 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ONLY SOME 10 KFT
CLOUDS ROLLING THROUGH. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 6 KTS OUT OF THE
WNW BUT DRY AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE ARE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN THAT COULD MOVE
IN TO THE SITES SOMETIME IN THE 12-18Z TIMEFRAME BUT MODELS DEPICT
THESE CLOUDS BREAKING UP AS THEY HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO HIGHER
PRESSURE. WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NEXT
ISSUANCE. BY MID MORNING FRIDAY WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 042305
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
605 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PRIMARILY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER LOW FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
BY EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

SLOWLY BUT SURELY...THE CLEARING AND SUNSHINE IS PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE...WITH PEAKS OF BLUE SKY NOW ABOUT HALFWAY
ACROSS THE STATE INCLUDING THE INDY METRO. DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED EAST ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE ALOFT...WITH JUST A FEW
LINGERING FLURRIES LEFT IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS REMAINED IN
THE UPPER 20S NEAR AND NORTH OF I-70 WITH LOW TO MID 30S OVER
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL ENJOY MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAY SEE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT
AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. OUTSIDE OF A
STRAY FLURRY...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING
ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
WAVE ALOFT PASSES.

TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT A GENERAL MOS BLEND FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT FOR MOST IN ABOUT A WEEK AS LOWS
SETTLE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...AS THE OHIO
VALLEY ENJOYS A SEASONABLY MILD FEW DAYS BEFORE BIG CHANGES ARRIVE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 HIGHLIGHTED
BY MULTIPLE RIDGES AND TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO AN
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
IMPACTS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE MINIMAL TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
WEEKEND...LIMITING TO LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW
WILL HAVE A MUCH LARGER IMPACT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SERVES TO
CARVE OUT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U S.

THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER WILL BE
LARGELY TRANQUIL. AFTER A PLEASANT DAY FRIDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE. THE
WAVE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP SATURDAY AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. LIMITED FORCING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL BE MITIGATING FACTORS IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS
THE WAVE PASSES. HAVE HELD ONTO A LOW CHANCE POP TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH
PROGS ARE BOTH SUGGESTIVE THAN ANY PRECIP MAY FALL SIMPLY AS
FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES AS THE LOWER LEVELS WARM. EVEN WITH MORE
CLOUDS SATURDAY...STILL EXPECT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE
WITH THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE
DAY SUNDAY AND MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH
VALLEY PRIOR TO 00Z.

TEMPS...GENERALLY FELT A MOS BLEND WAS SUFFICIENT FOR HIGHS
FRIDAY...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY AS
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAKING A
PUSH FOR 50 DEGREES. UTILIZED THE MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.  AS COOLER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.  THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...A VERY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. AS A RESULT...MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ON DAYS 7 AND 8.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL RETURN TO NORMAL WHEN COLDER AIR
INFILTRATES THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 546 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ONLY SOME 10 KFT
CLOUDS ROLLING THROUGH. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 6 KTS OUT OF THE
WNW BUT DRY AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE ARE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN THAT COULD MOVE
IN TO THE SITES SOMETIME IN THE 12-18Z TIMEFRAME BUT MODELS DEPICT
THESE CLOUDS BREAKING UP AS THEY HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO HIGHER
PRESSURE. WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NEXT
ISSUANCE. BY MID MORNING FRIDAY WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 042305
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
605 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PRIMARILY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER LOW FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
BY EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

SLOWLY BUT SURELY...THE CLEARING AND SUNSHINE IS PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE...WITH PEAKS OF BLUE SKY NOW ABOUT HALFWAY
ACROSS THE STATE INCLUDING THE INDY METRO. DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED EAST ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE ALOFT...WITH JUST A FEW
LINGERING FLURRIES LEFT IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS REMAINED IN
THE UPPER 20S NEAR AND NORTH OF I-70 WITH LOW TO MID 30S OVER
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL ENJOY MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAY SEE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT
AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. OUTSIDE OF A
STRAY FLURRY...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING
ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
WAVE ALOFT PASSES.

TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT A GENERAL MOS BLEND FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT FOR MOST IN ABOUT A WEEK AS LOWS
SETTLE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...AS THE OHIO
VALLEY ENJOYS A SEASONABLY MILD FEW DAYS BEFORE BIG CHANGES ARRIVE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 HIGHLIGHTED
BY MULTIPLE RIDGES AND TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO AN
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
IMPACTS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE MINIMAL TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
WEEKEND...LIMITING TO LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW
WILL HAVE A MUCH LARGER IMPACT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SERVES TO
CARVE OUT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U S.

THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER WILL BE
LARGELY TRANQUIL. AFTER A PLEASANT DAY FRIDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE. THE
WAVE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP SATURDAY AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. LIMITED FORCING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL BE MITIGATING FACTORS IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS
THE WAVE PASSES. HAVE HELD ONTO A LOW CHANCE POP TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH
PROGS ARE BOTH SUGGESTIVE THAN ANY PRECIP MAY FALL SIMPLY AS
FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES AS THE LOWER LEVELS WARM. EVEN WITH MORE
CLOUDS SATURDAY...STILL EXPECT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE
WITH THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE
DAY SUNDAY AND MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH
VALLEY PRIOR TO 00Z.

TEMPS...GENERALLY FELT A MOS BLEND WAS SUFFICIENT FOR HIGHS
FRIDAY...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY AS
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAKING A
PUSH FOR 50 DEGREES. UTILIZED THE MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.  AS COOLER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.  THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...A VERY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. AS A RESULT...MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ON DAYS 7 AND 8.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL RETURN TO NORMAL WHEN COLDER AIR
INFILTRATES THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 546 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ONLY SOME 10 KFT
CLOUDS ROLLING THROUGH. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 6 KTS OUT OF THE
WNW BUT DRY AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE ARE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN THAT COULD MOVE
IN TO THE SITES SOMETIME IN THE 12-18Z TIMEFRAME BUT MODELS DEPICT
THESE CLOUDS BREAKING UP AS THEY HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO HIGHER
PRESSURE. WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR NEXT
ISSUANCE. BY MID MORNING FRIDAY WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 042028
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
330 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PRIMARILY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER LOW FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
BY EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

SLOWLY BUT SURELY...THE CLEARING AND SUNSHINE IS PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE...WITH PEAKS OF BLUE SKY NOW ABOUT HALFWAY
ACROSS THE STATE INCLUDING THE INDY METRO. DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED EAST ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE ALOFT...WITH JUST A FEW
LINGERING FLURRIES LEFT IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS REMAINED IN
THE UPPER 20S NEAR AND NORTH OF I-70 WITH LOW TO MID 30S OVER
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL ENJOY MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAY SEE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT
AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. OUTSIDE OF A
STRAY FLURRY...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING
ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
WAVE ALOFT PASSES.

TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT A GENERAL MOS BLEND FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT FOR MOST IN ABOUT A WEEK AS LOWS
SETTLE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...AS THE OHIO
VALLEY ENJOYS A SEASONABLY MILD FEW DAYS BEFORE BIG CHANGES ARRIVE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 HIGHLIGHTED
BY MULTIPLE RIDGES AND TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO AN
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
IMPACTS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE MINIMAL TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
WEEKEND...LIMITING TO LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW
WILL HAVE A MUCH LARGER IMPACT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SERVES TO
CARVE OUT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U S.

THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER WILL BE
LARGELY TRANQUIL. AFTER A PLEASANT DAY FRIDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE. THE
WAVE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP SATURDAY AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. LIMITED FORCING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL BE MITIGATING FACTORS IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS
THE WAVE PASSES. HAVE HELD ONTO A LOW CHANCE POP TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH
PROGS ARE BOTH SUGGESTIVE THAN ANY PRECIP MAY FALL SIMPLY AS
FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES AS THE LOWER LEVELS WARM. EVEN WITH MORE
CLOUDS SATURDAY...STILL EXPECT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE
WITH THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE
DAY SUNDAY AND MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH
VALLEY PRIOR TO 00Z.

TEMPS...GENERALLY FELT A MOS BLEND WAS SUFFICIENT FOR HIGHS
FRIDAY...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY AS
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAKING A
PUSH FOR 50 DEGREES. UTILIZED THE MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.  AS COOLER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.  THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...A VERY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. AS A RESULT...MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ON DAYS 7 AND 8.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL RETURN TO NORMAL WHEN COLDER AIR
INFILTRATES THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 04/2100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.  PREVIOUS AVIATION
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BACK SIDE OF MVFR CEILINGS IS CONTINUING TO PUSH FARTHER
EAST...AND SHOULD BE PAST ALL TAF SITES BY THU 21Z. AT THAT
POINT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL START OUT WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS AND
GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 3 TO 6 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JH





000
FXUS63 KIND 042028
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
330 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PRIMARILY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER LOW FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
BY EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

SLOWLY BUT SURELY...THE CLEARING AND SUNSHINE IS PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE...WITH PEAKS OF BLUE SKY NOW ABOUT HALFWAY
ACROSS THE STATE INCLUDING THE INDY METRO. DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED EAST ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE ALOFT...WITH JUST A FEW
LINGERING FLURRIES LEFT IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS REMAINED IN
THE UPPER 20S NEAR AND NORTH OF I-70 WITH LOW TO MID 30S OVER
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL ENJOY MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAY SEE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT
AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. OUTSIDE OF A
STRAY FLURRY...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING
ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
WAVE ALOFT PASSES.

TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT A GENERAL MOS BLEND FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT FOR MOST IN ABOUT A WEEK AS LOWS
SETTLE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...AS THE OHIO
VALLEY ENJOYS A SEASONABLY MILD FEW DAYS BEFORE BIG CHANGES ARRIVE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 HIGHLIGHTED
BY MULTIPLE RIDGES AND TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO AN
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
IMPACTS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE MINIMAL TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
WEEKEND...LIMITING TO LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW
WILL HAVE A MUCH LARGER IMPACT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SERVES TO
CARVE OUT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U S.

THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER WILL BE
LARGELY TRANQUIL. AFTER A PLEASANT DAY FRIDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE. THE
WAVE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP SATURDAY AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. LIMITED FORCING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL BE MITIGATING FACTORS IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS
THE WAVE PASSES. HAVE HELD ONTO A LOW CHANCE POP TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH
PROGS ARE BOTH SUGGESTIVE THAN ANY PRECIP MAY FALL SIMPLY AS
FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES AS THE LOWER LEVELS WARM. EVEN WITH MORE
CLOUDS SATURDAY...STILL EXPECT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE
WITH THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE
DAY SUNDAY AND MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH
VALLEY PRIOR TO 00Z.

TEMPS...GENERALLY FELT A MOS BLEND WAS SUFFICIENT FOR HIGHS
FRIDAY...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY AS
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAKING A
PUSH FOR 50 DEGREES. UTILIZED THE MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.  AS COOLER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.  THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...A VERY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. AS A RESULT...MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ON DAYS 7 AND 8.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL RETURN TO NORMAL WHEN COLDER AIR
INFILTRATES THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 04/2100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.  PREVIOUS AVIATION
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BACK SIDE OF MVFR CEILINGS IS CONTINUING TO PUSH FARTHER
EAST...AND SHOULD BE PAST ALL TAF SITES BY THU 21Z. AT THAT
POINT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL START OUT WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS AND
GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 3 TO 6 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JH




000
FXUS63 KIND 042028
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
330 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PRIMARILY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER LOW FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
BY EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

SLOWLY BUT SURELY...THE CLEARING AND SUNSHINE IS PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE...WITH PEAKS OF BLUE SKY NOW ABOUT HALFWAY
ACROSS THE STATE INCLUDING THE INDY METRO. DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED EAST ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE ALOFT...WITH JUST A FEW
LINGERING FLURRIES LEFT IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS REMAINED IN
THE UPPER 20S NEAR AND NORTH OF I-70 WITH LOW TO MID 30S OVER
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL ENJOY MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAY SEE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT
AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. OUTSIDE OF A
STRAY FLURRY...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING
ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
WAVE ALOFT PASSES.

TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT A GENERAL MOS BLEND FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT FOR MOST IN ABOUT A WEEK AS LOWS
SETTLE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...AS THE OHIO
VALLEY ENJOYS A SEASONABLY MILD FEW DAYS BEFORE BIG CHANGES ARRIVE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 HIGHLIGHTED
BY MULTIPLE RIDGES AND TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO AN
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
IMPACTS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE MINIMAL TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
WEEKEND...LIMITING TO LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW
WILL HAVE A MUCH LARGER IMPACT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SERVES TO
CARVE OUT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U S.

THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER WILL BE
LARGELY TRANQUIL. AFTER A PLEASANT DAY FRIDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE. THE
WAVE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP SATURDAY AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. LIMITED FORCING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL BE MITIGATING FACTORS IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS
THE WAVE PASSES. HAVE HELD ONTO A LOW CHANCE POP TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH
PROGS ARE BOTH SUGGESTIVE THAN ANY PRECIP MAY FALL SIMPLY AS
FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES AS THE LOWER LEVELS WARM. EVEN WITH MORE
CLOUDS SATURDAY...STILL EXPECT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE
WITH THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE
DAY SUNDAY AND MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH
VALLEY PRIOR TO 00Z.

TEMPS...GENERALLY FELT A MOS BLEND WAS SUFFICIENT FOR HIGHS
FRIDAY...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY AS
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAKING A
PUSH FOR 50 DEGREES. UTILIZED THE MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.  AS COOLER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.  THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...A VERY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. AS A RESULT...MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ON DAYS 7 AND 8.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL RETURN TO NORMAL WHEN COLDER AIR
INFILTRATES THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 04/2100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.  PREVIOUS AVIATION
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BACK SIDE OF MVFR CEILINGS IS CONTINUING TO PUSH FARTHER
EAST...AND SHOULD BE PAST ALL TAF SITES BY THU 21Z. AT THAT
POINT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL START OUT WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS AND
GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 3 TO 6 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JH





000
FXUS63 KIND 041954
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PRIMARILY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER LOW FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
BY EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

SLOWLY BUT SURELY...THE CLEARING AND SUNSHINE IS PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE...WITH PEAKS OF BLUE SKY NOW ABOUT HALFWAY
ACROSS THE STATE INCLUDING THE INDY METRO. DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED EAST ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE ALOFT...WITH JUST A FEW
LINGERING FLURRIES LEFT IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS REMAINED IN
THE UPPER 20S NEAR AND NORTH OF I-70 WITH LOW TO MID 30S OVER
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL ENJOY MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAY SEE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT
AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. OUTSIDE OF A
STRAY FLURRY...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING
ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
WAVE ALOFT PASSES.

TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT A GENERAL MOS BLEND FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT FOR MOST IN ABOUT A WEEK AS LOWS
SETTLE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...AS THE OHIO
VALLEY ENJOYS A SEASONABLY MILD FEW DAYS BEFORE BIG CHANGES ARRIVE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 HIGHLIGHTED
BY MULTIPLE RIDGES AND TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO AN
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
IMPACTS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE MINIMAL TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
WEEKEND...LIMITING TO LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW
WILL HAVE A MUCH LARGER IMPACT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SERVES TO
CARVE OUT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U S.

THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER WILL BE
LARGELY TRANQUIL. AFTER A PLEASANT DAY FRIDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE. THE
WAVE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP SATURDAY AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. LIMITED FORCING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL BE MITIGATING FACTORS IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS
THE WAVE PASSES. HAVE HELD ONTO A LOW CHANCE POP TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH
PROGS ARE BOTH SUGGESTIVE THAN ANY PRECIP MAY FALL SIMPLY AS
FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES AS THE LOWER LEVELS WARM. EVEN WITH MORE
CLOUDS SATURDAY...STILL EXPECT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE
WITH THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE
DAY SUNDAY AND MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH
VALLEY PRIOR TO 00Z.

TEMPS...GENERALLY FELT A MOS BLEND WAS SUFFICIENT FOR HIGHS
FRIDAY...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY AS
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAKING A
PUSH FOR 50 DEGREES. UTILIZED THE MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.  AS COOLER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.  THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...A VERY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. AS A RESULT...MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ON DAYS 7 AND 8.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL RETURN TO NORMAL WHEN COLDER AIR
INFILTRATES THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 04/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

BACK SIDE OF MVFR CEILINGS IS CONTINUING TO PUSH FARTHER
EAST...AND SHOULD BE PAST ALL TAF SITES BY THU 21Z. AT THAT
POINT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL START OUT WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS AND
GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 3 TO 6 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 041736
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1236 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY BUILD NORTH AND EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY DRY BUT COOL WEATHER
TO CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL THEN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A RAIN...SNOW MIX ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER QUICK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS ON MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. COOLER WEATHER WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 940 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE IN ABUNDANCE THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PRESENT NEAR AND NORTH OF I-70.
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S AS OF 1430Z.

MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS TO MAINTAIN FLURRIES FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A DEPARTING VORT LOBE
APPEAR TO BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE FLURRIES. KIND RADAR
SUGGESTING SNOW IS FALLING A BIT HEAVIER ACROSS THE NORTHERN INDY
SUBURBS...AND THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE I-69 CORRIDOR FROM FISHERS
TO ANDERSON AND MUNCIE THROUGH MIDDAY. WHILE WE ARE TALKING ABOUT
TRACE AMOUNTS...THE LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN INDY
SUBURBS.

EXPECT ANY FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO END BY MIDDAY
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND DRIER AIR GRADUALLY ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION. BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS IS ALREADY TO THE INDIANA-
ILLINOIS BORDER THIS MORNING...AND WILL STEADILY PROGRESS EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S CONTINUE TO LOOK
REACHABLE.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS AND THEN POP
CHANCES ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL
USE A BLEND.

NAM AND GFS PUSH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
BEFORE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BLOCK ANY GULF
MOISTURE...AND LEAD TOWARD MAINLY SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE COLUMN AS
SEEN ON THE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS. GIVEN THE MINIMAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION...CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL NOT BE REACHED. THUS ONLY EXPECT
A FEW PASSING CI WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT. WILL TREND TOWARD A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...THE
COLDEST OF THE COLD AIR WILL HAVE DRIFTED EAST BY TONIGHT AND
MINIMAL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AS 850MB TEMPS RISE
BARELY TO -7C BY 00Z SAT. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A
COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS/METMOS
BLEND. WILL JUST USE A SLOW WARMING TREND ON HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE ALOFT ARRIVING
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE SHOULD
BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE BLOCKING HIGH TO THE SOUTH
CONTINUES TO PREVENT THE ARRIVAL OF GULF MOISTURE. LOWER LEVELS
DOES INDICATE A DECENT COLD FRONT/CLIPPER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
GIVEN THE DYNAMICS ALOFT...SOME LIGHT PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THUS THE MAVMOS POPS FOR LOW CHC POPS SEEM REASONABLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REMAIN MAINLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE MORNING...BUT WARM
UP ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON THAN ANY PRECIP COULD BE LIQUID. THUS
WILL MENTION RAIN/SNOW. WILL TREND TEMPS ON SATURDAY COOLER THAN
MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING AND
HIGH PRESSURE RETURN ALOFT. WITH EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE WILL TREND
TOWARD A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

ENSEMBLES ARE ABOUT EVENLY SPLIT AS TO THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF A COLD UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOUT HALF OF THE MEMBERS
KEEP MOST OF THE ENERGY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE OTHER
HALF DIGS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE MORE
SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS SUGGEST BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW
AMOUNTS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA OF CHANCE POPS FOR
MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND CHANCE POPS
FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES LOWER
IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH.

UPPER TROUGH LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR A DRY FORECAST BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 04/1800Z /...

ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

BACK SIDE OF MVFR CEILINGS IS CONTINUING TO PUSH FARTHER
EAST...AND SHOULD BE PAST ALL TAF SITES BY THU 21Z. AT THAT
POINT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL START OUT WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS AND
GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 3 TO 6 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 041607
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1106 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY BUILD NORTH AND EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY DRY BUT COOL WEATHER
TO CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL THEN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A RAIN...SNOW MIX ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER QUICK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS ON MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. COOLER WEATHER WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 940 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE IN ABUNDANCE THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PRESENT NEAR AND NORTH OF I-70.
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S AS OF 1430Z.

MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS TO MAINTAIN FLURRIES FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A DEPARTING VORT LOBE
APPEAR TO BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE FLURRIES. KIND RADAR
SUGGESTING SNOW IS FALLING A BIT HEAVIER ACROSS THE NORTHERN INDY
SUBURBS...AND THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE I-69 CORRIDOR FROM FISHERS
TO ANDERSON AND MUNCIE THROUGH MIDDAY. WHILE WE ARE TALKING ABOUT
TRACE AMOUNTS...THE LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN INDY
SUBURBS.

EXPECT ANY FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO END BY MIDDAY
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND DRIER AIR GRADUALLY ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION. BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS IS ALREADY TO THE INDIANA-
ILLINOIS BORDER THIS MORNING...AND WILL STEADILY PROGRESS EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S CONTINUE TO LOOK
REACHABLE.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS AND THEN POP
CHANCES ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL
USE A BLEND.

NAM AND GFS PUSH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
BEFORE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BLOCK ANY GULF
MOISTURE...AND LEAD TOWARD MAINLY SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE COLUMN AS
SEEN ON THE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS. GIVEN THE MINIMAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION...CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL NOT BE REACHED. THUS ONLY EXPECT
A FEW PASSING CI WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT. WILL TREND TOWARD A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...THE
COLDEST OF THE COLD AIR WILL HAVE DRIFTED EAST BY TONIGHT AND
MINIMAL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AS 850MB TEMPS RISE
BARELY TO -7C BY 00Z SAT. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A
COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS/METMOS
BLEND. WILL JUST USE A SLOW WARMING TREND ON HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE ALOFT ARRIVING
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE SHOULD
BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE BLOCKING HIGH TO THE SOUTH
CONTINUES TO PREVENT THE ARRIVAL OF GULF MOISTURE. LOWER LEVELS
DOES INDICATE A DECENT COLD FRONT/CLIPPER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
GIVEN THE DYNAMICS ALOFT...SOME LIGHT PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THUS THE MAVMOS POPS FOR LOW CHC POPS SEEM REASONABLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REMAIN MAINLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE MORNING...BUT WARM
UP ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON THAN ANY PRECIP COULD BE LIQUID. THUS
WILL MENTION RAIN/SNOW. WILL TREND TEMPS ON SATURDAY COOLER THAN
MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING AND
HIGH PRESSURE RETURN ALOFT. WITH EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE WILL TREND
TOWARD A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

ENSEMBLES ARE ABOUT EVENLY SPLIT AS TO THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF A COLD UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOUT HALF OF THE MEMBERS
KEEP MOST OF THE ENERGY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE OTHER
HALF DIGS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE MORE
SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS SUGGEST BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW
AMOUNTS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA OF CHANCE POPS FOR
MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND CHANCE POPS
FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES LOWER
IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH.

UPPER TROUGH LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR A DRY FORECAST BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041500Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 902 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

UPDATE... ADDED SNOW SHOWERS TO KIND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

BACK EDGE OF MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 CURRENTLY PROGRESSION EAST ACROSS
ILLINOIS. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THESE CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE 041500Z-041800Z TIME FRAME.

SURFACE WINDS 260-290 DEGREES AT 10-14 KTS...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY
EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 041550
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1050 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY BUILD NORTH AND EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRY BUT COOL WEATHER TO
CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL THEN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A RAIN...SNOW MIX ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER QUICK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS ON MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. COOLER WEATHER WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A TROUGH OF CYCLONIC
FLOW SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE LARGE AND BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD.
COOL WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S AND DEW POINTS IN THE DRY LOWER 20S. WATER
VAPOR SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNTIED STATES ALOFT.
IR IMAGES SHOWS CLOUDS WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA...WITH CLEARING FOUND IN NW ILLINOIS AND IOWA.

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLEARING CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED TEMPS.

LOWER LEVEL FLOW IS POISED TO BECOME MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC TODAY AS
THE DEEP LOW TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES FARTHER AWAY. TIME HEIGHTS
SHOW SLOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT DEPARTING THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THUS WILL TREND THIS WITH A CLOUDY MORNING AND
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH RELATIVELY NEUTRAL
TEMPS AT 850MB DURING THE PERIOD WILL TREND HIGHS CLOSER TO THE 3
HOURLY MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED MORNING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS AND THEN POP
CHANCES ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL
USE A BLEND.

NAM AND GFS PUSH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
BEFORE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BLOCK ANY GULF
MOISTURE...AND LEAD TOWARD MAINLY SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE COLUMN AS
SEEN ON THE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS. GIVEN THE MINIMAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION...CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL NOT BE REACHED. THUS ONLY EXPECT
A FEW PASSING CI WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT. WILL TREND TOWARD A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...THE
COLDEST OF THE COLD AIR WILL HAVE DRIFTED EAST BY TONIGHT AND
MINIMAL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AS 850MB TEMPS RISE
BARELY TO -7C BY 00Z SAT. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A
COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS/METMOS
BLEND. WILL JUST USE A SLOW WARMING TREND ON HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE ALOFT ARRIVING
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE SHOULD
BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE BLOCKING HIGH TO THE SOUTH
CONTINUES TO PREVENT THE ARRIVAL OF GULF MOISTURE. LOWER LEVELS
DOES INDICATE A DECENT COLD FRONT/CLIPPER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
GIVEN THE DYNAMICS ALOFT...SOME LIGHT PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THUS THE MAVMOS POPS FOR LOW CHC POPS SEEM REASONABLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REMAIN MAINLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE MORNING...BUT WARM
UP ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON THAN ANY PRECIP COULD BE LIQUID. THUS
WILL MENTION RAIN/SNOW. WILL TREND TEMPS ON SATURDAY COOLER THAN
MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING AND
HIGH PRESSURE RETURN ALOFT. WITH EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE WILL TREND
TOWARD A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

ENSEMBLES ARE ABOUT EVENLY SPLIT AS TO THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF A COLD UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOUT HALF OF THE MEMBERS
KEEP MOST OF THE ENERGY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE OTHER
HALF DIGS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE MORE
SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS SUGGEST BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW
AMOUNTS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA OF CHANCE POPS FOR
MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND CHANCE POPS
FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES LOWER
IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH.

UPPER TROUGH LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR A DRY FORECAST BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 04/1500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 902 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

UPDATE...
ADDED SNOW SHOWERS TO KIND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BACK EDGE OF MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 CURRENTLY PROGRESSION EAST ACROSS
ILLINOIS. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THESE CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE 041500Z-041800Z TIME FRAME.

SURFACE WINDS 260-290 DEGREES AT 10-14 KTS...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY
EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/TDUD




000
FXUS63 KIND 041550
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1050 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY BUILD NORTH AND EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRY BUT COOL WEATHER TO
CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL THEN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A RAIN...SNOW MIX ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER QUICK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS ON MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. COOLER WEATHER WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A TROUGH OF CYCLONIC
FLOW SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE LARGE AND BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD.
COOL WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S AND DEW POINTS IN THE DRY LOWER 20S. WATER
VAPOR SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNTIED STATES ALOFT.
IR IMAGES SHOWS CLOUDS WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA...WITH CLEARING FOUND IN NW ILLINOIS AND IOWA.

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLEARING CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED TEMPS.

LOWER LEVEL FLOW IS POISED TO BECOME MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC TODAY AS
THE DEEP LOW TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES FARTHER AWAY. TIME HEIGHTS
SHOW SLOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT DEPARTING THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THUS WILL TREND THIS WITH A CLOUDY MORNING AND
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH RELATIVELY NEUTRAL
TEMPS AT 850MB DURING THE PERIOD WILL TREND HIGHS CLOSER TO THE 3
HOURLY MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED MORNING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS AND THEN POP
CHANCES ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL
USE A BLEND.

NAM AND GFS PUSH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
BEFORE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BLOCK ANY GULF
MOISTURE...AND LEAD TOWARD MAINLY SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE COLUMN AS
SEEN ON THE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS. GIVEN THE MINIMAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION...CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL NOT BE REACHED. THUS ONLY EXPECT
A FEW PASSING CI WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT. WILL TREND TOWARD A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...THE
COLDEST OF THE COLD AIR WILL HAVE DRIFTED EAST BY TONIGHT AND
MINIMAL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AS 850MB TEMPS RISE
BARELY TO -7C BY 00Z SAT. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A
COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS/METMOS
BLEND. WILL JUST USE A SLOW WARMING TREND ON HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE ALOFT ARRIVING
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE SHOULD
BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE BLOCKING HIGH TO THE SOUTH
CONTINUES TO PREVENT THE ARRIVAL OF GULF MOISTURE. LOWER LEVELS
DOES INDICATE A DECENT COLD FRONT/CLIPPER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
GIVEN THE DYNAMICS ALOFT...SOME LIGHT PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THUS THE MAVMOS POPS FOR LOW CHC POPS SEEM REASONABLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REMAIN MAINLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE MORNING...BUT WARM
UP ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON THAN ANY PRECIP COULD BE LIQUID. THUS
WILL MENTION RAIN/SNOW. WILL TREND TEMPS ON SATURDAY COOLER THAN
MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING AND
HIGH PRESSURE RETURN ALOFT. WITH EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE WILL TREND
TOWARD A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

ENSEMBLES ARE ABOUT EVENLY SPLIT AS TO THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF A COLD UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOUT HALF OF THE MEMBERS
KEEP MOST OF THE ENERGY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE OTHER
HALF DIGS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE MORE
SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS SUGGEST BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW
AMOUNTS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA OF CHANCE POPS FOR
MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND CHANCE POPS
FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES LOWER
IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH.

UPPER TROUGH LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR A DRY FORECAST BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 04/1500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 902 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

UPDATE...
ADDED SNOW SHOWERS TO KIND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BACK EDGE OF MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 CURRENTLY PROGRESSION EAST ACROSS
ILLINOIS. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THESE CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE 041500Z-041800Z TIME FRAME.

SURFACE WINDS 260-290 DEGREES AT 10-14 KTS...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY
EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 041550
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1050 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY BUILD NORTH AND EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRY BUT COOL WEATHER TO
CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL THEN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A RAIN...SNOW MIX ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER QUICK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS ON MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. COOLER WEATHER WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A TROUGH OF CYCLONIC
FLOW SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE LARGE AND BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD.
COOL WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S AND DEW POINTS IN THE DRY LOWER 20S. WATER
VAPOR SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNTIED STATES ALOFT.
IR IMAGES SHOWS CLOUDS WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA...WITH CLEARING FOUND IN NW ILLINOIS AND IOWA.

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLEARING CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED TEMPS.

LOWER LEVEL FLOW IS POISED TO BECOME MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC TODAY AS
THE DEEP LOW TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES FARTHER AWAY. TIME HEIGHTS
SHOW SLOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT DEPARTING THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THUS WILL TREND THIS WITH A CLOUDY MORNING AND
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH RELATIVELY NEUTRAL
TEMPS AT 850MB DURING THE PERIOD WILL TREND HIGHS CLOSER TO THE 3
HOURLY MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED MORNING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS AND THEN POP
CHANCES ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL
USE A BLEND.

NAM AND GFS PUSH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
BEFORE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BLOCK ANY GULF
MOISTURE...AND LEAD TOWARD MAINLY SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE COLUMN AS
SEEN ON THE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS. GIVEN THE MINIMAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION...CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL NOT BE REACHED. THUS ONLY EXPECT
A FEW PASSING CI WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT. WILL TREND TOWARD A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...THE
COLDEST OF THE COLD AIR WILL HAVE DRIFTED EAST BY TONIGHT AND
MINIMAL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AS 850MB TEMPS RISE
BARELY TO -7C BY 00Z SAT. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A
COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS/METMOS
BLEND. WILL JUST USE A SLOW WARMING TREND ON HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE ALOFT ARRIVING
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE SHOULD
BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE BLOCKING HIGH TO THE SOUTH
CONTINUES TO PREVENT THE ARRIVAL OF GULF MOISTURE. LOWER LEVELS
DOES INDICATE A DECENT COLD FRONT/CLIPPER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
GIVEN THE DYNAMICS ALOFT...SOME LIGHT PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THUS THE MAVMOS POPS FOR LOW CHC POPS SEEM REASONABLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REMAIN MAINLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE MORNING...BUT WARM
UP ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON THAN ANY PRECIP COULD BE LIQUID. THUS
WILL MENTION RAIN/SNOW. WILL TREND TEMPS ON SATURDAY COOLER THAN
MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING AND
HIGH PRESSURE RETURN ALOFT. WITH EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE WILL TREND
TOWARD A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

ENSEMBLES ARE ABOUT EVENLY SPLIT AS TO THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF A COLD UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOUT HALF OF THE MEMBERS
KEEP MOST OF THE ENERGY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE OTHER
HALF DIGS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE MORE
SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS SUGGEST BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW
AMOUNTS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA OF CHANCE POPS FOR
MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND CHANCE POPS
FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES LOWER
IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH.

UPPER TROUGH LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR A DRY FORECAST BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 04/1500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 902 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

UPDATE...
ADDED SNOW SHOWERS TO KIND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BACK EDGE OF MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 CURRENTLY PROGRESSION EAST ACROSS
ILLINOIS. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THESE CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE 041500Z-041800Z TIME FRAME.

SURFACE WINDS 260-290 DEGREES AT 10-14 KTS...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY
EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 041440
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
940 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY BUILD NORTH AND EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY DRY BUT COOL WEATHER
TO CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL THEN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A RAIN...SNOW MIX ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER QUICK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS ON MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. COOLER WEATHER WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 940 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE IN ABUNDANCE THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PRESENT NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-70. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S AS OF 1430Z.

MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS TO MAINTAIN FLURRIES FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A DEPARTING VORT LOBE
APPEAR TO BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE FLURRIES. KIND RADAR
SUGGESTING SNOW IS FALLING A BIT HEAVIER ACROSS THE NORTHERN INDY
SUBURBS...AND THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE I-69 CORRIDOR FROM
FISHERS TO ANDERSON AND MUNCIE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WHILE
WE ARE TALKING ABOUT TRACE AMOUNTS...THE LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN JUST
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN INDY SUBURBS.

EXPECT ANY FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO END BY MIDDAY
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND DRIER AIR GRADUALLY ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION. BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS IS ALREADY TO THE INDIANA-
ILLINOIS BORDER THIS MORNING...AND WILL STEADILY PROGRESS EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S CONTINUE TO LOOK
REACHABLE.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS AND THEN POP
CHANCES ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL
USE A BLEND.

NAM AND GFS PUSH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
BEFORE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BLOCK ANY GULF
MOISTURE...AND LEAD TOWARD MAINLY SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE COLUMN AS
SEEN ON THE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS. GIVEN THE MINIMAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION...CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL NOT BE REACHED. THUS ONLY EXPECT
A FEW PASSING CI WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT. WILL TREND TOWARD A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...THE
COLDEST OF THE COLD AIR WILL HAVE DRIFTED EAST BY TONIGHT AND
MINIMAL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AS 850MB TEMPS RISE
BARELY TO -7C BY 00Z SAT. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A
COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS/METMOS
BLEND. WILL JUST USE A SLOW WARMING TREND ON HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE ALOFT ARRIVING
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE SHOULD
BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE BLOCKING HIGH TO THE SOUTH
CONTINUES TO PREVENT THE ARRIVAL OF GULF MOISTURE. LOWER LEVELS
DOES INDICATE A DECENT COLD FRONT/CLIPPER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
GIVEN THE DYNAMICS ALOFT...SOME LIGHT PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THUS THE MAVMOS POPS FOR LOW CHC POPS SEEM REASONABLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REMAIN MAINLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE MORNING...BUT WARM
UP ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON THAN ANY PRECIP COULD BE LIQUID. THUS
WILL MENTION RAIN/SNOW. WILL TREND TEMPS ON SATURDAY COOLER THAN
MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING AND
HIGH PRESSURE RETURN ALOFT. WITH EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE WILL TREND
TOWARD A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

ENSEMBLES ARE ABOUT EVENLY SPLIT AS TO THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF A COLD UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOUT HALF OF THE MEMBERS
KEEP MOST OF THE ENERGY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE OTHER
HALF DIGS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE MORE
SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS SUGGEST BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW
AMOUNTS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA OF CHANCE POPS FOR
MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND CHANCE POPS
FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES LOWER
IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH.

UPPER TROUGH LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR A DRY FORECAST BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

BACK EDGE OF MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 CURRENTLY PROGRESSION EAST ACROSS
ILLINOIS. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THESE CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE 041500Z-041800Z TIME FRAME.

SURFACE WINDS 260-290 DEGREES AT 10-14 KTS...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY
EXPECTED TODAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS





000
FXUS63 KIND 041035
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
532 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY BUILD NORTH AND EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRY BUT COOL WEATHER TO
CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL THEN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A RAIN...SNOW MIX ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER QUICK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS ON MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. COOLER WEATHER WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A TROUGH OF CYCLONIC
FLOW SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE LARGE AND BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD.
COOL WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S AND DEW POINTS IN THE DRY LOWER 20S. WATER
VAPOR SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNTIED STATES ALOFT.
IR IMAGES SHOWS CLOUDS WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA...WITH CLEARING FOUND IN NW ILLINOIS AND IOWA.

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLEARING CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED TEMPS.

LOWER LEVEL FLOW IS POISED TO BECOME MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC TODAY AS
THE DEEP LOW TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES FARTHER AWAY. TIME HEIGHTS
SHOW SLOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT DEPARTING THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THUS WILL TREND THIS WITH A CLOUDY MORNING AND
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH RELATIVELY NEUTRAL
TEMPS AT 850MB DURING THE PERIOD WILL TREND HIGHS CLOSER TO THE 3
HOURLY MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED MORNING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS AND THEN POP
CHANCES ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL
USE A BLEND.

NAM AND GFS PUSH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
BEFORE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BLOCK ANY GULF
MOISTURE...AND LEAD TOWARD MAINLY SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE COLUMN AS
SEEN ON THE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS. GIVEN THE MINIMAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION...CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL NOT BE REACHED. THUS ONLY EXPECT
A FEW PASSING CI WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT. WILL TREND TOWARD A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...THE
COLDEST OF THE COLD AIR WILL HAVE DRIFTED EAST BY TONIGHT AND
MINIMAL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AS 850MB TEMPS RISE
BARELY TO -7C BY 00Z SAT. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A
COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS/METMOS
BLEND. WILL JUST USE A SLOW WARMING TREND ON HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE ALOFT ARRIVING
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE SHOULD
BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE BLOCKING HIGH TO THE SOUTH
CONTINUES TO PREVENT THE ARRIVAL OF GULF MOISTURE. LOWER LEVELS
DOES INDICATE A DECENT COLD FRONT/CLIPPER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
GIVEN THE DYNAMICS ALOFT...SOME LIGHT PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THUS THE MAVMOS POPS FOR LOW CHC POPS SEEM REASONABLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REMAIN MAINLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE MORNING...BUT WARM
UP ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON THAN ANY PRECIP COULD BE LIQUID. THUS
WILL MENTION RAIN/SNOW. WILL TREND TEMPS ON SATURDAY COOLER THAN
MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING AND
HIGH PRESSURE RETURN ALOFT. WITH EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE WILL TREND
TOWARD A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

ENSEMBLES ARE ABOUT EVENLY SPLIT AS TO THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF A COLD UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOUT HALF OF THE MEMBERS
KEEP MOST OF THE ENERGY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE OTHER
HALF DIGS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE MORE
SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS SUGGEST BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW
AMOUNTS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA OF CHANCE POPS FOR
MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND CHANCE POPS
FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES LOWER
IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH.

UPPER TROUGH LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR A DRY FORECAST BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

BACK EDGE OF MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 CURRENTLY PROGRESSION EAST ACROSS
ILLINOIS. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THESE CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE 041500Z-041800Z TIME FRAME.

SURFACE WINDS 260-290 DEGREES AT 10-14 KTS...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY
EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS





000
FXUS63 KIND 040814
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
312 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY BUILD NORTH AND EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRY BUT COOL WEATHER TO
CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL THEN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A RAIN...SNOW MIX ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER QUICK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS ON MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. COOLER WEATHER WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A TROUGH OF CYCLONIC
FLOW SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE LARGE AND BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD.
COOL WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S AND DEW POINTS IN THE DRY LOWER 20S. WATER
VAPOR SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNTIED STATES ALOFT.
IR IMAGES SHOWS CLOUDS WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA...WITH CLEARING FOUND IN NW ILLINOIS AND IOWA.

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLEARING CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED TEMPS.

LOWER LEVEL FLOW IS POISED TO BECOME MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC TODAY AS
THE DEEP LOW TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES FARTHER AWAY. TIME HEIGHTS
SHOW SLOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT DEPARTING THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THUS WILL TREND THIS WITH A CLOUDY MORNING AND
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH RELATIVELY NEUTRAL
TEMPS AT 850MB DURING THE PERIOD WILL TREND HIGHS CLOSER TO THE 3
HOURLY MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED MORNING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS AND THEN POP
CHANCES ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL
USE A BLEND.

NAM AND GFS PUSH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
BEFORE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BLOCK ANY GULF
MOISTURE...AND LEAD TOWARD MAINLY SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE COLUMN AS
SEEN ON THE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS. GIVEN THE MINIMAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION...CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL NOT BE REACHED. THUS ONLY EXPECT
A FEW PASSING CI WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT. WILL TREND TOWARD A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...THE
COLDEST OF THE COLD AIR WILL HAVE DRIFTED EAST BY TONIGHT AND
MINIMAL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AS 850MB TEMPS RISE
BARELY TO -7C BY 00Z SAT. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A
COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS/METMOS
BLEND. WILL JUST USE A SLOW WARMING TREND ON HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE ALOFT ARRIVING
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE SHOULD
BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE BLOCKING HIGH TO THE SOUTH
CONTINUES TO PREVENT THE ARRIVAL OF GULF MOISTURE. LOWER LEVELS
DOES INDICATE A DECENT COLD FRONT/CLIPPER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
GIVEN THE DYNAMICS ALOFT...SOME LIGHT PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THUS THE MAVMOS POPS FOR LOW CHC POPS SEEM REASONABLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REMAIN MAINLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE MORNING...BUT WARM
UP ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON THAN ANY PRECIP COULD BE LIQUID. THUS
WILL MENTION RAIN/SNOW. WILL TREND TEMPS ON SATURDAY COOLER THAN
MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING AND
HIGH PRESSURE RETURN ALOFT. WITH EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE WILL TREND
TOWARD A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

ENSEMBLES ARE ABOUT EVENLY SPLIT AS THE THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF A COLD UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOUT HALF OF THE MEMBERS
KEEP MOST OF THE ENERGY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE OTHER
HALF DIGS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE MORE
SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS SUGGEST BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW
AMOUNTS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA OF CHANCE POPS FOR
MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND CHANCE POPS
FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES LOWER
IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH.

UPPER TROUGH LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR A DRY FORECAST BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
WINDS CURRENTLY AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS
SHOULD QUICKLY DROP TO 7-12 KTS AND GUSTS FALL OFF...IF NOT BY 6Z
THEN SHORTLY THEREAFTER. EXPECT CEILINGS TO RISE TO VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN FINALLY JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THURSDAY
EVENING AND WINDS DROPPING OFF TO 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 0Z FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...CP/JAS





000
FXUS63 KIND 040731
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
231 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY BUILD NORTH AND EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRY BUT COOL WEATHER TO
CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL THEN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A RAIN...SNOW MIX ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER QUICK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS ON MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. COOLER WEATHER WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A TROUGH OF CYCLONIC
FLOW SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE LARGE AND BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD.
COOL WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S AND DEW POINTS IN THE DRY LOWER 20S. WATER
VAPOR SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNTIED STATES ALOFT.
IR IMAGES SHOWS CLOUDS WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA...WITH CLEARING FOUND IN NW ILLINOIS AND IOWA.

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLEARING CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED TEMPS.

LOWER LEVEL FLOW IS POISED TO BECOME MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC TODAY AS
THE DEEP LOW TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES FARTHER AWAY. TIME HEIGHTS
SHOW SLOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT DEPARTING THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THUS WILL TREND THIS WITH A CLOUDY MORNING AND
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH RELATIVELY NEUTRAL
TEMPS AT 850MB DURING THE PERIOD WILL TREND HIGHS CLOSER TO THE 3
HOURLY MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED MORNING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS AND THEN POP
CHANCES ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL
USE A BLEND.

NAM AND GFS PUSH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
BEFORE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BLOCK ANY GULF
MOISTURE...AND LEAD TOWARD MAINLY SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE COLUMN AS
SEEN ON THE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS. GIVEN THE MINIMAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION...CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL NOT BE REACHED. THUS ONLY EXPECT
A FEW PASSING CI WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT. WILL TREND TOWARD A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...THE
COLDEST OF THE COLD AIR WILL HAVE DRIFTED EAST BY TONIGHT AND
MINIMAL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AS 850MB TEMPS RISE
BARELY TO -7C BY 00Z SAT. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A
COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS/METMOS
BLEND. WILL JUST USE A SLOW WARMING TREND ON HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE ALOFT ARRIVING
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE SHOULD
BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE BLOCKING HIGH TO THE SOUTH
CONTINUES TO PREVENT THE ARRIVAL OF GULF MOISTURE. LOWER LEVELS
DOES INDICATE A DECENT COLD FRONT/CLIPPER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
GIVEN THE DYNAMICS ALOFT...SOME LIGHT PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THUS THE MAVMOS POPS FOR LOW CHC POPS SEEM REASONABLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REMAIN MAINLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE MORNING...BUT WARM
UP ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON THAN ANY PRECIP COULD BE LIQUID. THUS
WILL MENTION RAIN/SNOW. WILL TREND TEMPS ON SATURDAY COOLER THAN
MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING AND
HIGH PRESSURE RETURN ALOFT. WITH EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE WILL TREND
TOWARD A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

ENSEMBLES ARE ABOUT EVENLY SPLIT AS THE THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF A COLD UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOUT HALF OF THE MEMBERS
KEEP MOST OF THE ENERGY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE OTHER
HALF DIGS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE MORE
SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS SUGGEST BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW
AMOUNTS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA OF CHANCE POPS FOR
MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND CHANCE POPS
FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES LOWER
IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH.

UPPER TROUGH LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR A DRY FORECAST BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
WINDS CURRENTLY AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS
SHOULD QUICKLY DROP TO 7-12 KTS AND GUSTS FALL OFF...IF NOT BY 6Z
THEN SHORTLY THEREAFTER. EXPECT CEILINGS TO RISE TO VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN FINALLY JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THURSDAY
EVENING AND WINDS DROPPING OFF TO 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 0Z FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 040647
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
147 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY BUILD NORTH AND EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRY BUT COOL WEATHER TO
CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL THEN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A RAIN...SNOW MIX ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER QUICK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS ON MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. COOLER WEATHER WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A TROUGH OF CYCLONIC
FLOW SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE LARGE AND BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD.
COOL WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S AND DEW POINTS IN THE DRY LOWER 20S. WATER
VAPOR SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNTIED STATES ALOFT.
IR IMAGES SHOWS CLOUDS WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA...WITH CLEARING FOUND IN NW ILLINOIS AND IOWA.

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLEARING CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED TEMPS.

LOWER LEVEL FLOW IS POISED TO BECOME MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC TODAY AS
THE DEEP LOW TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES FARTHER AWAY. TIME HEIGHTS
SHOW SLOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT DEPARTING THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THUS WILL TREND THIS WITH A CLOUDY MORNING AND
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH RELATIVELY NEUTRAL
TEMPS AT 850MB DURING THE PERIOD WILL TREND HIGHS CLOSER TO THE 3
HOURLY MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED MORNING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS AND THEN POP
CHANCES ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL
USE A BLEND.

NAM AND GFS PUSH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
BEFORE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BLOCK ANY GULF
MOISTURE...AND LEAD TOWARD MAINLY SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE COLUMN AS
SEEN ON THE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS. GIVEN THE MINIMAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION...CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL NOT BE REACHED. THUS ONLY EXPECT
A FEW PASSING CI WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT. WILL TREND TOWARD A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...THE
COLDEST OF THE COLD AIR WILL HAVE DRIFTED EAST BY TONIGHT AND
MINIMAL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AS 850MB TEMPS RISE
BARELY TO -7C BY 00Z SAT. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A
COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS/METMOS
BLEND. WILL JUST USE A SLOW WARMING TREND ON HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE ALOFT ARRIVING
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE SHOULD
BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE BLOCKING HIGH TO THE SOUTH
CONTINUES TO PREVENT THE ARRIVAL OF GULF MOISTURE. LOWER LEVELS
DOES INDICATE A DECENT COLD FRONT/CLIPPER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
GIVEN THE DYNAMICS ALOFT...SOME LIGHT PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THUS THE MAVMOS POPS FOR LOW CHC POPS SEEM REASONABLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REMAIN MAINLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE MORNING...BUT WARM
UP ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON THAN ANY PRECIP COULD BE LIQUID. THUS
WILL MENTION RAIN/SNOW. WILL TREND TEMPS ON SATURDAY COOLER THAN
MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING AND
HIGH PRESSURE RETURN ALOFT. WITH EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE WILL TREND
TOWARD A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 143 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

ENSEMBLES STILL NOT IN THE GREATEST OF AGREEMENT...NOR BEING
CONSISTENT AS THEY DEPICT A DEVELOPING COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
IT IS POSSIBLE A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN POSSIBLY A STRONGER SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER THIS WEAK RAIN/SNOW MIX
CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WEAK LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST...DUE TO COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY ROUGH EARLY ESTIMATE OF LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...OR
UPWARDS AROUND AN INCH OVER A 24 HOUR PLUS HOUR PERIOD. STILL SO
MUCH VARIANCE AMONG THE GUIDANCE AND REALLY TOO EARLY AT THIS
POINT FOR MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
WINDS CURRENTLY AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS
SHOULD QUICKLY DROP TO 7-12 KTS AND GUSTS FALL OFF...IF NOT BY 6Z
THEN SHORTLY THEREAFTER. EXPECT CEILINGS TO RISE TO VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN FINALLY JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THURSDAY
EVENING AND WINDS DROPPING OFF TO 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 0Z FRIDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 040647
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
147 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY BUILD NORTH AND EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRY BUT COOL WEATHER TO
CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL THEN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A RAIN...SNOW MIX ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER QUICK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS ON MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. COOLER WEATHER WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A TROUGH OF CYCLONIC
FLOW SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE LARGE AND BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD.
COOL WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S AND DEW POINTS IN THE DRY LOWER 20S. WATER
VAPOR SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNTIED STATES ALOFT.
IR IMAGES SHOWS CLOUDS WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA...WITH CLEARING FOUND IN NW ILLINOIS AND IOWA.

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLEARING CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED TEMPS.

LOWER LEVEL FLOW IS POISED TO BECOME MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC TODAY AS
THE DEEP LOW TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES FARTHER AWAY. TIME HEIGHTS
SHOW SLOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT DEPARTING THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THUS WILL TREND THIS WITH A CLOUDY MORNING AND
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH RELATIVELY NEUTRAL
TEMPS AT 850MB DURING THE PERIOD WILL TREND HIGHS CLOSER TO THE 3
HOURLY MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED MORNING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS AND THEN POP
CHANCES ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL
USE A BLEND.

NAM AND GFS PUSH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
BEFORE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BLOCK ANY GULF
MOISTURE...AND LEAD TOWARD MAINLY SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE COLUMN AS
SEEN ON THE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS. GIVEN THE MINIMAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION...CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL NOT BE REACHED. THUS ONLY EXPECT
A FEW PASSING CI WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT. WILL TREND TOWARD A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...THE
COLDEST OF THE COLD AIR WILL HAVE DRIFTED EAST BY TONIGHT AND
MINIMAL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AS 850MB TEMPS RISE
BARELY TO -7C BY 00Z SAT. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A
COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS/METMOS
BLEND. WILL JUST USE A SLOW WARMING TREND ON HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE ALOFT ARRIVING
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE SHOULD
BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE BLOCKING HIGH TO THE SOUTH
CONTINUES TO PREVENT THE ARRIVAL OF GULF MOISTURE. LOWER LEVELS
DOES INDICATE A DECENT COLD FRONT/CLIPPER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
GIVEN THE DYNAMICS ALOFT...SOME LIGHT PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THUS THE MAVMOS POPS FOR LOW CHC POPS SEEM REASONABLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REMAIN MAINLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE MORNING...BUT WARM
UP ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON THAN ANY PRECIP COULD BE LIQUID. THUS
WILL MENTION RAIN/SNOW. WILL TREND TEMPS ON SATURDAY COOLER THAN
MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING AND
HIGH PRESSURE RETURN ALOFT. WITH EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE WILL TREND
TOWARD A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 143 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

ENSEMBLES STILL NOT IN THE GREATEST OF AGREEMENT...NOR BEING
CONSISTENT AS THEY DEPICT A DEVELOPING COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
IT IS POSSIBLE A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN POSSIBLY A STRONGER SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER THIS WEAK RAIN/SNOW MIX
CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WEAK LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST...DUE TO COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY ROUGH EARLY ESTIMATE OF LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...OR
UPWARDS AROUND AN INCH OVER A 24 HOUR PLUS HOUR PERIOD. STILL SO
MUCH VARIANCE AMONG THE GUIDANCE AND REALLY TOO EARLY AT THIS
POINT FOR MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
WINDS CURRENTLY AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS
SHOULD QUICKLY DROP TO 7-12 KTS AND GUSTS FALL OFF...IF NOT BY 6Z
THEN SHORTLY THEREAFTER. EXPECT CEILINGS TO RISE TO VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN FINALLY JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THURSDAY
EVENING AND WINDS DROPPING OFF TO 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 0Z FRIDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 040647
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
147 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY BUILD NORTH AND EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRY BUT COOL WEATHER TO
CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL THEN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A RAIN...SNOW MIX ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER QUICK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS ON MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. COOLER WEATHER WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A TROUGH OF CYCLONIC
FLOW SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE LARGE AND BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD.
COOL WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S AND DEW POINTS IN THE DRY LOWER 20S. WATER
VAPOR SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNTIED STATES ALOFT.
IR IMAGES SHOWS CLOUDS WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA...WITH CLEARING FOUND IN NW ILLINOIS AND IOWA.

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLEARING CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED TEMPS.

LOWER LEVEL FLOW IS POISED TO BECOME MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC TODAY AS
THE DEEP LOW TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES FARTHER AWAY. TIME HEIGHTS
SHOW SLOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT DEPARTING THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THUS WILL TREND THIS WITH A CLOUDY MORNING AND
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH RELATIVELY NEUTRAL
TEMPS AT 850MB DURING THE PERIOD WILL TREND HIGHS CLOSER TO THE 3
HOURLY MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED MORNING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS AND THEN POP
CHANCES ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL
USE A BLEND.

NAM AND GFS PUSH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
BEFORE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BLOCK ANY GULF
MOISTURE...AND LEAD TOWARD MAINLY SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE COLUMN AS
SEEN ON THE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS. GIVEN THE MINIMAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION...CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL NOT BE REACHED. THUS ONLY EXPECT
A FEW PASSING CI WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT. WILL TREND TOWARD A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...THE
COLDEST OF THE COLD AIR WILL HAVE DRIFTED EAST BY TONIGHT AND
MINIMAL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AS 850MB TEMPS RISE
BARELY TO -7C BY 00Z SAT. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A
COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS/METMOS
BLEND. WILL JUST USE A SLOW WARMING TREND ON HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE ALOFT ARRIVING
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE SHOULD
BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE BLOCKING HIGH TO THE SOUTH
CONTINUES TO PREVENT THE ARRIVAL OF GULF MOISTURE. LOWER LEVELS
DOES INDICATE A DECENT COLD FRONT/CLIPPER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
GIVEN THE DYNAMICS ALOFT...SOME LIGHT PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THUS THE MAVMOS POPS FOR LOW CHC POPS SEEM REASONABLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REMAIN MAINLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE MORNING...BUT WARM
UP ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON THAN ANY PRECIP COULD BE LIQUID. THUS
WILL MENTION RAIN/SNOW. WILL TREND TEMPS ON SATURDAY COOLER THAN
MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING AND
HIGH PRESSURE RETURN ALOFT. WITH EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE WILL TREND
TOWARD A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 143 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

ENSEMBLES STILL NOT IN THE GREATEST OF AGREEMENT...NOR BEING
CONSISTENT AS THEY DEPICT A DEVELOPING COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
IT IS POSSIBLE A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN POSSIBLY A STRONGER SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER THIS WEAK RAIN/SNOW MIX
CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WEAK LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST...DUE TO COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY ROUGH EARLY ESTIMATE OF LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...OR
UPWARDS AROUND AN INCH OVER A 24 HOUR PLUS HOUR PERIOD. STILL SO
MUCH VARIANCE AMONG THE GUIDANCE AND REALLY TOO EARLY AT THIS
POINT FOR MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
WINDS CURRENTLY AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS
SHOULD QUICKLY DROP TO 7-12 KTS AND GUSTS FALL OFF...IF NOT BY 6Z
THEN SHORTLY THEREAFTER. EXPECT CEILINGS TO RISE TO VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN FINALLY JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THURSDAY
EVENING AND WINDS DROPPING OFF TO 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 0Z FRIDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 040452
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1152 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
QUICKLY DEPARTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LOW AND BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR SAGS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 938 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...AREA OF FLURRIES MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. WEATHER DEPICTION AND
RADAR INDICATES NO FLURRIES UPSTREAM FROM INDY...SO WILL END THESE IN THE WEST
AROUND NOW AND THE REST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  WILL GO A LITTLE HIGHER WITH
THE WINDS TONIGHT AS THEY HAVE BEEN STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.  THERE
IS STILL A PRETTY STRONG GRADIENT...BUT THIS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT.  LOWS STILL
SEEM TO BE ON TRACK RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S NORTHWEST TO THE
UPPER 20S FAR SOUTHEAST.

PORTION OF PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY AS LOW STRATUS REMAINS
IN PLACE...BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING SHOULD STILL GET WELL
INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA. CONSENSUS TEMPS FIT VERY WELL WITH
UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT AMPLE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AT
LEAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT OCCURS. MODELS
ARE OFTEN A BIT QUICK TO BREAK UP LOW CLOUDS SO THIS WILL BEAR
MONITORING...BUT FOR RIGHT NOW WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES LOOKED VERY REASONABLE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 143 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

ENSEMBLES STILL NOT IN THE GREATEST OF AGREEMENT...NOR BEING
CONSISTENT AS THEY DEPICT A DEVELOPING COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
IT IS POSSIBLE A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN POSSIBLY A STRONGER SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER THIS WEAK RAIN/SNOW MIX
CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WEAK LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST...DUE TO COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY ROUGH EARLY ESTIMATE OF LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...OR
UPWARDS AROUND AN INCH OVER A 24 HOUR PLUS HOUR PERIOD. STILL SO
MUCH VARIANCE AMONG THE GUIDANCE AND REALLY TOO EARLY AT THIS
POINT FOR MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
WINDS CURRENTLY AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS
SHOULD QUICKLY DROP TO 7-12 KTS AND GUSTS FALL OFF...IF NOT BY 6Z
THEN SHORTLY THEREAFTER. EXPECT CEILINGS TO RISE TO VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN FINALLY JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THURSDAY
EVENING AND WINDS DROPPING OFF TO 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 0Z FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 040238
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
938 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
QUICKLY DEPARTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LOW AND BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR SAGS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 938 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...AREA OF FLURRIES MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. WEATHER DEPICTION AND
RADAR INDICATES NO FLURRIES UPSTREAM FROM INDY...SO WILL END THESE IN THE WEST
AROUND NOW AND THE REST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  WILL GO A LITTLE HIGHER WITH
THE WINDS TONIGHT AS THEY HAVE BEEN STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.  THERE
IS STILL A PRETTY STRONG GRADIENT...BUT THIS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT.  LOWS STILL
SEEM TO BE ON TRACK RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S NORTHWEST TO THE
UPPER 20S FAR SOUTHEAST.

PORTION OF PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY AS LOW STRATUS REMAINS
IN PLACE...BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING SHOULD STILL GET WELL
INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA. CONSENSUS TEMPS FIT VERY WELL WITH
UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT AMPLE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AT
LEAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT OCCURS. MODELS
ARE OFTEN A BIT QUICK TO BREAK UP LOW CLOUDS SO THIS WILL BEAR
MONITORING...BUT FOR RIGHT NOW WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES LOOKED VERY REASONABLE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 143 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

ENSEMBLES STILL NOT IN THE GREATEST OF AGREEMENT...NOR BEING
CONSISTENT AS THEY DEPICT A DEVELOPING COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
IT IS POSSIBLE A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN POSSIBLY A STRONGER SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER THIS WEAK RAIN/SNOW MIX
CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WEAK LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST...DUE TO COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY ROUGH EARLY ESTIMATE OF LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...OR
UPWARDS AROUND AN INCH OVER A 24 HOUR PLUS HOUR PERIOD. STILL SO
MUCH VARIANCE AMONG THE GUIDANCE AND REALLY TOO EARLY AT THIS
POINT FOR MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 915 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

ANY FLURRIES SHOULD COME TO AN END AT THE SITES OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
WIND GUSTS COULD CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH AROUND 5Z. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...


MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL STAY AROUND 8-15 KTS THROUGH AROUND 6Z OR
SO BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 5-10 KTS BUT DIRECTION SHOULD REMAIN
WESTERLY. MODELS ARE INDICATING CLOUD DECK COULD BREAK UP AND SKIES
SEE SOME CLEARING THURSDAY BUT WITH CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW HAVE
SIGNIFICANT DOUBTS ABOUT THIS. WILL MIX CEILINGS UP TO VFR LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON BUT MAINTAIN A BROKEN DECK OF STRATOCU THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 040216
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
915 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
QUICKLY DEPARTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LOW AND BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR SAGS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

WILL CARRY FLURRIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. FINALLY SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT ECHOES ON REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC AND A FEW UPSTREAM STATIONS REPORTING LIGHT PRECIP. SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY AS LOW STRATUS REMAINS
IN PLACE...BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING SHOULD STILL GET WELL
INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA. CONSENSUS TEMPS FIT VERY WELL WITH
UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT AMPLE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AT
LEAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT OCCURS. MODELS
ARE OFTEN A BIT QUICK TO BREAK UP LOW CLOUDS SO THIS WILL BEAR
MONITORING...BUT FOR RIGHT NOW WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES LOOKED VERY REASONABLE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 143 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

ENSEMBLES STILL NOT IN THE GREATEST OF AGREEMENT...NOR BEING
CONSISTENT AS THEY DEPICT A DEVELOPING COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
IT IS POSSIBLE A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN POSSIBLY A STRONGER SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER THIS WEAK RAIN/SNOW MIX
CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WEAK LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST...DUE TO COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY ROUGH EARLY ESTIMATE OF LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...OR
UPWARDS AROUND AN INCH OVER A 24 HOUR PLUS HOUR PERIOD. STILL SO
MUCH VARIANCE AMONG THE GUIDANCE AND REALLY TOO EARLY AT THIS
POINT FOR MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 915 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

ANY FLURRIES SHOULD COME TO AN END AT THE SITES OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
WIND GUSTS COULD CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH AROUND 5Z. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...


MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL STAY AROUND 8-15 KTS THROUGH AROUND 6Z OR
SO BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 5-10 KTS BUT DIRECTION SHOULD REMAIN
WESTERLY. MODELS ARE INDICATING CLOUD DECK COULD BREAK UP AND SKIES
SEE SOME CLEARING THURSDAY BUT WITH CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW HAVE
SIGNIFICANT DOUBTS ABOUT THIS. WILL MIX CEILINGS UP TO VFR LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON BUT MAINTAIN A BROKEN DECK OF STRATOCU THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 040216
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
915 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
QUICKLY DEPARTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LOW AND BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR SAGS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

WILL CARRY FLURRIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. FINALLY SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT ECHOES ON REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC AND A FEW UPSTREAM STATIONS REPORTING LIGHT PRECIP. SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY AS LOW STRATUS REMAINS
IN PLACE...BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING SHOULD STILL GET WELL
INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA. CONSENSUS TEMPS FIT VERY WELL WITH
UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT AMPLE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AT
LEAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT OCCURS. MODELS
ARE OFTEN A BIT QUICK TO BREAK UP LOW CLOUDS SO THIS WILL BEAR
MONITORING...BUT FOR RIGHT NOW WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES LOOKED VERY REASONABLE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 143 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

ENSEMBLES STILL NOT IN THE GREATEST OF AGREEMENT...NOR BEING
CONSISTENT AS THEY DEPICT A DEVELOPING COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
IT IS POSSIBLE A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN POSSIBLY A STRONGER SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER THIS WEAK RAIN/SNOW MIX
CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WEAK LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST...DUE TO COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY ROUGH EARLY ESTIMATE OF LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...OR
UPWARDS AROUND AN INCH OVER A 24 HOUR PLUS HOUR PERIOD. STILL SO
MUCH VARIANCE AMONG THE GUIDANCE AND REALLY TOO EARLY AT THIS
POINT FOR MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 915 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

ANY FLURRIES SHOULD COME TO AN END AT THE SITES OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
WIND GUSTS COULD CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH AROUND 5Z. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...


MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL STAY AROUND 8-15 KTS THROUGH AROUND 6Z OR
SO BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 5-10 KTS BUT DIRECTION SHOULD REMAIN
WESTERLY. MODELS ARE INDICATING CLOUD DECK COULD BREAK UP AND SKIES
SEE SOME CLEARING THURSDAY BUT WITH CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW HAVE
SIGNIFICANT DOUBTS ABOUT THIS. WILL MIX CEILINGS UP TO VFR LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON BUT MAINTAIN A BROKEN DECK OF STRATOCU THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 040216
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
915 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
QUICKLY DEPARTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LOW AND BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR SAGS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

WILL CARRY FLURRIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. FINALLY SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT ECHOES ON REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC AND A FEW UPSTREAM STATIONS REPORTING LIGHT PRECIP. SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY AS LOW STRATUS REMAINS
IN PLACE...BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING SHOULD STILL GET WELL
INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA. CONSENSUS TEMPS FIT VERY WELL WITH
UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT AMPLE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AT
LEAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT OCCURS. MODELS
ARE OFTEN A BIT QUICK TO BREAK UP LOW CLOUDS SO THIS WILL BEAR
MONITORING...BUT FOR RIGHT NOW WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES LOOKED VERY REASONABLE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 143 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

ENSEMBLES STILL NOT IN THE GREATEST OF AGREEMENT...NOR BEING
CONSISTENT AS THEY DEPICT A DEVELOPING COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
IT IS POSSIBLE A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN POSSIBLY A STRONGER SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER THIS WEAK RAIN/SNOW MIX
CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WEAK LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST...DUE TO COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY ROUGH EARLY ESTIMATE OF LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...OR
UPWARDS AROUND AN INCH OVER A 24 HOUR PLUS HOUR PERIOD. STILL SO
MUCH VARIANCE AMONG THE GUIDANCE AND REALLY TOO EARLY AT THIS
POINT FOR MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 915 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

ANY FLURRIES SHOULD COME TO AN END AT THE SITES OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
WIND GUSTS COULD CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH AROUND 5Z. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...


MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL STAY AROUND 8-15 KTS THROUGH AROUND 6Z OR
SO BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 5-10 KTS BUT DIRECTION SHOULD REMAIN
WESTERLY. MODELS ARE INDICATING CLOUD DECK COULD BREAK UP AND SKIES
SEE SOME CLEARING THURSDAY BUT WITH CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW HAVE
SIGNIFICANT DOUBTS ABOUT THIS. WILL MIX CEILINGS UP TO VFR LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON BUT MAINTAIN A BROKEN DECK OF STRATOCU THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 032327
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
627 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
QUICKLY DEPARTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LOW AND BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR SAGS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

WILL CARRY FLURRIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. FINALLY SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT ECHOES ON REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC AND A FEW UPSTREAM STATIONS REPORTING LIGHT PRECIP. SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY AS LOW STRATUS REMAINS
IN PLACE...BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING SHOULD STILL GET WELL
INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA. CONSENSUS TEMPS FIT VERY WELL WITH
UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT AMPLE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AT
LEAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT OCCURS. MODELS
ARE OFTEN A BIT QUICK TO BREAK UP LOW CLOUDS SO THIS WILL BEAR
MONITORING...BUT FOR RIGHT NOW WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES LOOKED VERY REASONABLE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 143 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

ENSEMBLES STILL NOT IN THE GREATEST OF AGREEMENT...NOR BEING
CONSISTENT AS THEY DEPICT A DEVELOPING COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
IT IS POSSIBLE A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN POSSIBLY A STRONGER SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER THIS WEAK RAIN/SNOW MIX
CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WEAK LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST...DUE TO COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY ROUGH EARLY ESTIMATE OF LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...OR
UPWARDS AROUND AN INCH OVER A 24 HOUR PLUS HOUR PERIOD. STILL SO
MUCH VARIANCE AMONG THE GUIDANCE AND REALLY TOO EARLY AT THIS
POINT FOR MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 627 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

QUICK ADDITION...ALSO WITH SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CURRENTLY PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP OF 5SM -SN
FOR KIND WHERE IT IS MOST LIKELY TO HAVE AN IMPACT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MVFR CEILING SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL STAY AROUND 8-15 KTS THROUGH
AROUND 6Z OR SO BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 5-10 KTS BUT DIRECTION
SHOULD REMAIN WESTERLY. MODELS ARE INDICATING CLOUD DECK COULD
BREAK UP AND SKIES SEE SOME CLEARING THURSDAY BUT WITH CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW HAVE SIGNIFICANT DOUBTS ABOUT THIS. WILL MIX
CEILINGS UP TO VFR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MAINTAIN A BROKEN
DECK OF STRATOCU THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 032327
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
627 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
QUICKLY DEPARTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LOW AND BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR SAGS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

WILL CARRY FLURRIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. FINALLY SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT ECHOES ON REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC AND A FEW UPSTREAM STATIONS REPORTING LIGHT PRECIP. SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY AS LOW STRATUS REMAINS
IN PLACE...BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING SHOULD STILL GET WELL
INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA. CONSENSUS TEMPS FIT VERY WELL WITH
UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT AMPLE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AT
LEAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT OCCURS. MODELS
ARE OFTEN A BIT QUICK TO BREAK UP LOW CLOUDS SO THIS WILL BEAR
MONITORING...BUT FOR RIGHT NOW WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES LOOKED VERY REASONABLE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 143 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

ENSEMBLES STILL NOT IN THE GREATEST OF AGREEMENT...NOR BEING
CONSISTENT AS THEY DEPICT A DEVELOPING COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
IT IS POSSIBLE A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN POSSIBLY A STRONGER SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER THIS WEAK RAIN/SNOW MIX
CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WEAK LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST...DUE TO COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY ROUGH EARLY ESTIMATE OF LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...OR
UPWARDS AROUND AN INCH OVER A 24 HOUR PLUS HOUR PERIOD. STILL SO
MUCH VARIANCE AMONG THE GUIDANCE AND REALLY TOO EARLY AT THIS
POINT FOR MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 627 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

QUICK ADDITION...ALSO WITH SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CURRENTLY PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP OF 5SM -SN
FOR KIND WHERE IT IS MOST LIKELY TO HAVE AN IMPACT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MVFR CEILING SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL STAY AROUND 8-15 KTS THROUGH
AROUND 6Z OR SO BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 5-10 KTS BUT DIRECTION
SHOULD REMAIN WESTERLY. MODELS ARE INDICATING CLOUD DECK COULD
BREAK UP AND SKIES SEE SOME CLEARING THURSDAY BUT WITH CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW HAVE SIGNIFICANT DOUBTS ABOUT THIS. WILL MIX
CEILINGS UP TO VFR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MAINTAIN A BROKEN
DECK OF STRATOCU THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 032327
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
627 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
QUICKLY DEPARTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LOW AND BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR SAGS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

WILL CARRY FLURRIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. FINALLY SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT ECHOES ON REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC AND A FEW UPSTREAM STATIONS REPORTING LIGHT PRECIP. SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY AS LOW STRATUS REMAINS
IN PLACE...BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING SHOULD STILL GET WELL
INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA. CONSENSUS TEMPS FIT VERY WELL WITH
UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT AMPLE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AT
LEAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT OCCURS. MODELS
ARE OFTEN A BIT QUICK TO BREAK UP LOW CLOUDS SO THIS WILL BEAR
MONITORING...BUT FOR RIGHT NOW WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES LOOKED VERY REASONABLE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 143 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

ENSEMBLES STILL NOT IN THE GREATEST OF AGREEMENT...NOR BEING
CONSISTENT AS THEY DEPICT A DEVELOPING COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
IT IS POSSIBLE A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN POSSIBLY A STRONGER SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER THIS WEAK RAIN/SNOW MIX
CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WEAK LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST...DUE TO COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY ROUGH EARLY ESTIMATE OF LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...OR
UPWARDS AROUND AN INCH OVER A 24 HOUR PLUS HOUR PERIOD. STILL SO
MUCH VARIANCE AMONG THE GUIDANCE AND REALLY TOO EARLY AT THIS
POINT FOR MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 627 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

QUICK ADDITION...ALSO WITH SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CURRENTLY PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP OF 5SM -SN
FOR KIND WHERE IT IS MOST LIKELY TO HAVE AN IMPACT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MVFR CEILING SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL STAY AROUND 8-15 KTS THROUGH
AROUND 6Z OR SO BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 5-10 KTS BUT DIRECTION
SHOULD REMAIN WESTERLY. MODELS ARE INDICATING CLOUD DECK COULD
BREAK UP AND SKIES SEE SOME CLEARING THURSDAY BUT WITH CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW HAVE SIGNIFICANT DOUBTS ABOUT THIS. WILL MIX
CEILINGS UP TO VFR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MAINTAIN A BROKEN
DECK OF STRATOCU THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 032307
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
607 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
QUICKLY DEPARTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LOW AND BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR SAGS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

WILL CARRY FLURRIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. FINALLY SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT ECHOES ON REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC AND A FEW UPSTREAM STATIONS REPORTING LIGHT PRECIP. SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY AS LOW STRATUS REMAINS
IN PLACE...BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING SHOULD STILL GET WELL
INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA. CONSENSUS TEMPS FIT VERY WELL WITH
UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT AMPLE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AT
LEAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT OCCURS. MODELS
ARE OFTEN A BIT QUICK TO BREAK UP LOW CLOUDS SO THIS WILL BEAR
MONITORING...BUT FOR RIGHT NOW WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES LOOKED VERY REASONABLE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 143 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

ENSEMBLES STILL NOT IN THE GREATEST OF AGREEMENT...NOR BEING
CONSISTENT AS THEY DEPICT A DEVELOPING COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
IT IS POSSIBLE A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN POSSIBLY A STRONGER SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER THIS WEAK RAIN/SNOW MIX
CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WEAK LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST...DUE TO COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY ROUGH EARLY ESTIMATE OF LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...OR
UPWARDS AROUND AN INCH OVER A 24 HOUR PLUS HOUR PERIOD. STILL SO
MUCH VARIANCE AMONG THE GUIDANCE AND REALLY TOO EARLY AT THIS
POINT FOR MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 601 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

MVFR CEILING SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL STAY AROUND 8-15 KTS THROUGH
AROUND 6Z OR SO BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 5-10 KTS BUT DIRECTION
SHOULD REMAIN WESTERLY. MODELS ARE INDICATING CLOUD DECK COULD
BREAK UP AND SKIES SEE SOME CLEARING THURSDAY BUT WITH CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW HAVE SIGNIFICANT DOUBTS ABOUT THIS. WILL MIX
CEILINGS UP TO VFR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MAINTAIN A BROKEN
DECK OF STRATOCU THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 032307
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
607 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
QUICKLY DEPARTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LOW AND BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR SAGS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

WILL CARRY FLURRIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. FINALLY SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT ECHOES ON REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC AND A FEW UPSTREAM STATIONS REPORTING LIGHT PRECIP. SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY AS LOW STRATUS REMAINS
IN PLACE...BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING SHOULD STILL GET WELL
INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA. CONSENSUS TEMPS FIT VERY WELL WITH
UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT AMPLE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AT
LEAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT OCCURS. MODELS
ARE OFTEN A BIT QUICK TO BREAK UP LOW CLOUDS SO THIS WILL BEAR
MONITORING...BUT FOR RIGHT NOW WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES LOOKED VERY REASONABLE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 143 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

ENSEMBLES STILL NOT IN THE GREATEST OF AGREEMENT...NOR BEING
CONSISTENT AS THEY DEPICT A DEVELOPING COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
IT IS POSSIBLE A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN POSSIBLY A STRONGER SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER THIS WEAK RAIN/SNOW MIX
CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WEAK LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST...DUE TO COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY ROUGH EARLY ESTIMATE OF LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...OR
UPWARDS AROUND AN INCH OVER A 24 HOUR PLUS HOUR PERIOD. STILL SO
MUCH VARIANCE AMONG THE GUIDANCE AND REALLY TOO EARLY AT THIS
POINT FOR MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 601 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

MVFR CEILING SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL STAY AROUND 8-15 KTS THROUGH
AROUND 6Z OR SO BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 5-10 KTS BUT DIRECTION
SHOULD REMAIN WESTERLY. MODELS ARE INDICATING CLOUD DECK COULD
BREAK UP AND SKIES SEE SOME CLEARING THURSDAY BUT WITH CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW HAVE SIGNIFICANT DOUBTS ABOUT THIS. WILL MIX
CEILINGS UP TO VFR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MAINTAIN A BROKEN
DECK OF STRATOCU THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 032307
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
607 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
QUICKLY DEPARTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LOW AND BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR SAGS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

WILL CARRY FLURRIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. FINALLY SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT ECHOES ON REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC AND A FEW UPSTREAM STATIONS REPORTING LIGHT PRECIP. SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY AS LOW STRATUS REMAINS
IN PLACE...BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING SHOULD STILL GET WELL
INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA. CONSENSUS TEMPS FIT VERY WELL WITH
UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT AMPLE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AT
LEAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT OCCURS. MODELS
ARE OFTEN A BIT QUICK TO BREAK UP LOW CLOUDS SO THIS WILL BEAR
MONITORING...BUT FOR RIGHT NOW WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES LOOKED VERY REASONABLE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 143 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

ENSEMBLES STILL NOT IN THE GREATEST OF AGREEMENT...NOR BEING
CONSISTENT AS THEY DEPICT A DEVELOPING COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
IT IS POSSIBLE A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN POSSIBLY A STRONGER SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER THIS WEAK RAIN/SNOW MIX
CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WEAK LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST...DUE TO COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY ROUGH EARLY ESTIMATE OF LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...OR
UPWARDS AROUND AN INCH OVER A 24 HOUR PLUS HOUR PERIOD. STILL SO
MUCH VARIANCE AMONG THE GUIDANCE AND REALLY TOO EARLY AT THIS
POINT FOR MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 601 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

MVFR CEILING SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL STAY AROUND 8-15 KTS THROUGH
AROUND 6Z OR SO BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 5-10 KTS BUT DIRECTION
SHOULD REMAIN WESTERLY. MODELS ARE INDICATING CLOUD DECK COULD
BREAK UP AND SKIES SEE SOME CLEARING THURSDAY BUT WITH CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW HAVE SIGNIFICANT DOUBTS ABOUT THIS. WILL MIX
CEILINGS UP TO VFR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MAINTAIN A BROKEN
DECK OF STRATOCU THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 032028
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
329 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
QUICKLY DEPARTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LOW AND BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR SAGS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

WILL CARRY FLURRIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. FINALLY SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT ECHOES ON REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC AND A FEW UPSTREAM STATIONS REPORTING LIGHT PRECIP. SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY AS LOW STRATUS REMAINS
IN PLACE...BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING SHOULD STILL GET WELL
INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA. CONSENSUS TEMPS FIT VERY WELL WITH
UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT AMPLE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AT
LEAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT OCCURS. MODELS
ARE OFTEN A BIT QUICK TO BREAK UP LOW CLOUDS SO THIS WILL BEAR
MONITORING...BUT FOR RIGHT NOW WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES LOOKED VERY REASONABLE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 143 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

ENSEMBLES STILL NOT IN THE GREATEST OF AGREEMENT...NOR BEING
CONSISTENT AS THEY DEPICT A DEVELOPING COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
IT IS POSSIBLE A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN POSSIBLY A STRONGER SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER THIS WEAK RAIN/SNOW MIX
CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WEAK LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST...DUE TO COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY ROUGH EARLY ESTIMATE OF LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...OR
UPWARDS AROUND AN INCH OVER A 24 HOUR PLUS HOUR PERIOD. STILL SO
MUCH VARIANCE AMONG THE GUIDANCE AND REALLY TOO EARLY AT THIS
POINT FOR MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 032100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDTIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CEILINGS 025-035 THAT WERE OVER CENTRAL
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOW PARTIALLY ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL
INDIANA MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST. THESE CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND THROUGH TONIGHT...AND EVEN EARLY TOMORROW (THURSDAY) MORNING.
THE LAST SITE TO FALL TO MVFR WILL BE KBMG...WHICH IS ABOUT 1-2
HOURS FROM THE EDGE OF THIS LOWER (MVFR) STRATO CU DECK AND IS
FORECAST TO GO FROM BKN035 TO OVC030 BY 20-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT MID TO HIGH END MVFR ALL NIGHT LONG.
CURRENTLY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE AND
CAUSING GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...WITH A FEW SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE IN UPWARDS OF 35 MPH. THESE GUSTS WILL BEGIN
TO DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF
THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JH





000
FXUS63 KIND 032028
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
329 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
QUICKLY DEPARTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LOW AND BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR SAGS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

WILL CARRY FLURRIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. FINALLY SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT ECHOES ON REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC AND A FEW UPSTREAM STATIONS REPORTING LIGHT PRECIP. SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY AS LOW STRATUS REMAINS
IN PLACE...BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING SHOULD STILL GET WELL
INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA. CONSENSUS TEMPS FIT VERY WELL WITH
UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT AMPLE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AT
LEAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT OCCURS. MODELS
ARE OFTEN A BIT QUICK TO BREAK UP LOW CLOUDS SO THIS WILL BEAR
MONITORING...BUT FOR RIGHT NOW WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES LOOKED VERY REASONABLE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 143 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

ENSEMBLES STILL NOT IN THE GREATEST OF AGREEMENT...NOR BEING
CONSISTENT AS THEY DEPICT A DEVELOPING COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
IT IS POSSIBLE A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN POSSIBLY A STRONGER SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER THIS WEAK RAIN/SNOW MIX
CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WEAK LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST...DUE TO COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY ROUGH EARLY ESTIMATE OF LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...OR
UPWARDS AROUND AN INCH OVER A 24 HOUR PLUS HOUR PERIOD. STILL SO
MUCH VARIANCE AMONG THE GUIDANCE AND REALLY TOO EARLY AT THIS
POINT FOR MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 032100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDTIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CEILINGS 025-035 THAT WERE OVER CENTRAL
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOW PARTIALLY ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL
INDIANA MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST. THESE CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND THROUGH TONIGHT...AND EVEN EARLY TOMORROW (THURSDAY) MORNING.
THE LAST SITE TO FALL TO MVFR WILL BE KBMG...WHICH IS ABOUT 1-2
HOURS FROM THE EDGE OF THIS LOWER (MVFR) STRATO CU DECK AND IS
FORECAST TO GO FROM BKN035 TO OVC030 BY 20-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT MID TO HIGH END MVFR ALL NIGHT LONG.
CURRENTLY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE AND
CAUSING GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...WITH A FEW SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE IN UPWARDS OF 35 MPH. THESE GUSTS WILL BEGIN
TO DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF
THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JH




000
FXUS63 KIND 032020
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
QUICKLY DEPARTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LOW AND BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR SAGS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

WILL CARRY FLURRIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. FINALLY SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT ECHOES ON REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC AND A FEW UPSTREAM STATIONS REPORTING LIGHT PRECIP. SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY AS LOW STRATUS REMAINS
IN PLACE...BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING SHOULD STILL GET WELL
INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA. CONSENSUS TEMPS FIT VERY WELL WITH
UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT AMPLE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AT
LEAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT OCCURS. MODELS
ARE OFTEN A BIT QUICK TO BREAK UP LOW CLOUDS SO THIS WILL BEAR
MONITORING...BUT FOR RIGHT NOW WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES LOOKED VERY REASONABLE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 143 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

ENSEMBLES STILL NOT IN THE GREATEST OF AGREEMENT...NOR BEING
CONSISTENT AS THEY DEPICT A DEVELOPING COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
IT IS POSSIBLE A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN POSSIBLY A STRONGER SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER THIS WEAK RAIN/SNOW MIX
CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WEAK LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST...DUE TO COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY ROUGH EARLY ESTIMATE OF LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...OR
UPWARDS AROUND AN INCH OVER A 24 HOUR PLUS HOUR PERIOD. STILL SO
MUCH VARIANCE AMONG THE GUIDANCE AND REALLY TOO EARLY AT THIS
POINT FOR MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1206 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CEILINGS 025-035 THAT WERE OVER CENTRAL
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOW PARTIALLY ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL
INDIANA MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST. THESE CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND THROUGH TONIGHT...AND EVEN EARLY TOMORROW (THURSDAY) MORNING.
THE LAST SITE TO FALL TO MVFR WILL BE KBMG...WHICH IS ABOUT 1-2
HOURS FROM THE EDGE OF THIS LOWER (MVFR) STRATO CU DECK AND IS
FORECAST TO GO FROM BKN035 TO OVC030 BY 20-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT MID TO HIGH END MVFR ALL NIGHT LONG.
CURRENTLY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE AND
CAUSING GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...WITH A FEW SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE IN UPWARDS OF 35 MPH. THESE GUSTS WILL BEGIN
TO DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF
THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF





000
FXUS63 KIND 031851
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
151 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PUSH TO ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC BY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS
STATES BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS INDIANA AND MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FROM WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THUS WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF
NONMEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. HAVE ADJUSTED HOWEVER TO
DRIZZLE OR A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FLURRIES FOR AREAS WHEN HOURLY TEMPS
ARE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ALL FLURRIES.

ADDITIONALLY...ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SKY GRIDS FOR TIMING AND
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY EARLY WITH THE AMPLE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING.
SHOULD CLOUD OVER STEADILY AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER
NRN ILLINOIS AND LAKE MICHIGAN. A DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
WAS FOUND OVER SE MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT
WAS FOUND ACROSS NW MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AMID SOUTH
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. RADAR SHOWS THE LAST EDGE OF
PRECIP PUSHING THROUGH INDY METRO AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE DEEP LOW OVER NRN ILLINOIS
WILL PUSH WELL TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...AND IN PROCESS DRAG THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SYSTEM. MEANWHILE
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...ALL WHILE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. MEANWHILE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW SATURATED LOWER
LEVELS AS DO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICATING TRAPPED STRATO-
CU. FINALLY...THE GFS AND AND BOTH SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS UNAVAILABLE...HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE...A FLURRY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THUS AFTER THE DRY SLOT PASSES AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
RETURNS...WILL TREND TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHC FOR A
FLURRY. GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FORECAST HIGHS
NEAR 12Z EXPECTED TEMPS TRENDING COOLER AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS...CLOSER TO THE 12Z
FORECAST TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE THE SAME KIND OF PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BROAD TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...ALL WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE TRAPPED STRATO-CU ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHEN THE LOWER LEVEL PATTER BECOMES LESS CYCLONIC.
THE NAM SUGGESTS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO INDIANA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT THAT TIME. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND WITH CLOUDY
SKIES UNTIL MIDDAY THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT
CLOSE TO MAVMOS...AND TREND HIGHS ON THURSDAY COOLER THAN MAVMOS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE GFS DEPICTS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...KEEPING COOL
AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE CORE OF COLD AIR HAD MOVES EAST OF INDIANA...HOWEVER
ONLY BROAD AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS 850MB TEMPS
ONLY SLOWLY RISE TO -4 BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
RATHER DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL ONLY EXPECT SOME
HIGH CLOUDS. WILL TREND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TOWARD
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MAVMOS FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 143 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

ENSEMBLES STILL NOT IN THE GREATEST OF AGREEMENT...NOR BEING
CONSISTENT AS THEY DEPICT A DEVELOPING COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
IT IS POSSIBLE A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN POSSIBLY A STRONGER SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER THIS WEAK RAIN/SNOW MIX
CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WEAK LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST...DUE TO COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY ROUGH EARLY ESTIMATE OF LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...OR
UPWARDS AROUND AN INCH OVER A 24 HOUR PLUS HOUR PERIOD. STILL SO
MUCH VARIANCE AMONG THE GUIDANCE AND REALLY TOO EARLY AT THIS
POINT FOR MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1206 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CEILINGS 025-035 THAT WERE OVER CENTRAL
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOW PARTIALLY ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL
INDIANA MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST. THESE CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND THROUGH TONIGHT...AND EVEN EARLY TOMORROW (THURSDAY) MORNING.
THE LAST SITE TO FALL TO MVFR WILL BE KBMG...WHICH IS ABOUT 1-2
HOURS FROM THE EDGE OF THIS LOWER (MVFR) STRATO CU DECK AND IS
FORECAST TO GO FROM BKN035 TO OVC030 BY 20-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT MID TO HIGH END MVFR ALL NIGHT LONG.
CURRENTLY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE AND
CAUSING GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...WITH A FEW SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE IN UPWARDS OF 35 MPH. THESE GUSTS WILL BEGIN
TO DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF
THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/NIELD
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF





000
FXUS63 KIND 031851
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
151 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PUSH TO ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC BY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS
STATES BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS INDIANA AND MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FROM WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THUS WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF
NONMEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. HAVE ADJUSTED HOWEVER TO
DRIZZLE OR A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FLURRIES FOR AREAS WHEN HOURLY TEMPS
ARE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ALL FLURRIES.

ADDITIONALLY...ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SKY GRIDS FOR TIMING AND
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY EARLY WITH THE AMPLE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING.
SHOULD CLOUD OVER STEADILY AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER
NRN ILLINOIS AND LAKE MICHIGAN. A DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
WAS FOUND OVER SE MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT
WAS FOUND ACROSS NW MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AMID SOUTH
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. RADAR SHOWS THE LAST EDGE OF
PRECIP PUSHING THROUGH INDY METRO AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE DEEP LOW OVER NRN ILLINOIS
WILL PUSH WELL TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...AND IN PROCESS DRAG THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SYSTEM. MEANWHILE
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...ALL WHILE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. MEANWHILE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW SATURATED LOWER
LEVELS AS DO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICATING TRAPPED STRATO-
CU. FINALLY...THE GFS AND AND BOTH SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS UNAVAILABLE...HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE...A FLURRY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THUS AFTER THE DRY SLOT PASSES AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
RETURNS...WILL TREND TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHC FOR A
FLURRY. GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FORECAST HIGHS
NEAR 12Z EXPECTED TEMPS TRENDING COOLER AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS...CLOSER TO THE 12Z
FORECAST TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE THE SAME KIND OF PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BROAD TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...ALL WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE TRAPPED STRATO-CU ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHEN THE LOWER LEVEL PATTER BECOMES LESS CYCLONIC.
THE NAM SUGGESTS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO INDIANA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT THAT TIME. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND WITH CLOUDY
SKIES UNTIL MIDDAY THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT
CLOSE TO MAVMOS...AND TREND HIGHS ON THURSDAY COOLER THAN MAVMOS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE GFS DEPICTS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...KEEPING COOL
AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE CORE OF COLD AIR HAD MOVES EAST OF INDIANA...HOWEVER
ONLY BROAD AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS 850MB TEMPS
ONLY SLOWLY RISE TO -4 BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
RATHER DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL ONLY EXPECT SOME
HIGH CLOUDS. WILL TREND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TOWARD
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MAVMOS FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 143 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

ENSEMBLES STILL NOT IN THE GREATEST OF AGREEMENT...NOR BEING
CONSISTENT AS THEY DEPICT A DEVELOPING COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
IT IS POSSIBLE A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN POSSIBLY A STRONGER SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER THIS WEAK RAIN/SNOW MIX
CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WEAK LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST...DUE TO COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY ROUGH EARLY ESTIMATE OF LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...OR
UPWARDS AROUND AN INCH OVER A 24 HOUR PLUS HOUR PERIOD. STILL SO
MUCH VARIANCE AMONG THE GUIDANCE AND REALLY TOO EARLY AT THIS
POINT FOR MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1206 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CEILINGS 025-035 THAT WERE OVER CENTRAL
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOW PARTIALLY ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL
INDIANA MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST. THESE CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND THROUGH TONIGHT...AND EVEN EARLY TOMORROW (THURSDAY) MORNING.
THE LAST SITE TO FALL TO MVFR WILL BE KBMG...WHICH IS ABOUT 1-2
HOURS FROM THE EDGE OF THIS LOWER (MVFR) STRATO CU DECK AND IS
FORECAST TO GO FROM BKN035 TO OVC030 BY 20-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT MID TO HIGH END MVFR ALL NIGHT LONG.
CURRENTLY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE AND
CAUSING GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...WITH A FEW SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE IN UPWARDS OF 35 MPH. THESE GUSTS WILL BEGIN
TO DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF
THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/NIELD
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF





000
FXUS63 KIND 031851
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
151 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PUSH TO ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC BY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS
STATES BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS INDIANA AND MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FROM WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THUS WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF
NONMEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. HAVE ADJUSTED HOWEVER TO
DRIZZLE OR A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FLURRIES FOR AREAS WHEN HOURLY TEMPS
ARE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ALL FLURRIES.

ADDITIONALLY...ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SKY GRIDS FOR TIMING AND
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY EARLY WITH THE AMPLE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING.
SHOULD CLOUD OVER STEADILY AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER
NRN ILLINOIS AND LAKE MICHIGAN. A DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
WAS FOUND OVER SE MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT
WAS FOUND ACROSS NW MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AMID SOUTH
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. RADAR SHOWS THE LAST EDGE OF
PRECIP PUSHING THROUGH INDY METRO AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE DEEP LOW OVER NRN ILLINOIS
WILL PUSH WELL TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...AND IN PROCESS DRAG THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SYSTEM. MEANWHILE
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...ALL WHILE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. MEANWHILE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW SATURATED LOWER
LEVELS AS DO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICATING TRAPPED STRATO-
CU. FINALLY...THE GFS AND AND BOTH SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS UNAVAILABLE...HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE...A FLURRY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THUS AFTER THE DRY SLOT PASSES AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
RETURNS...WILL TREND TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHC FOR A
FLURRY. GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FORECAST HIGHS
NEAR 12Z EXPECTED TEMPS TRENDING COOLER AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS...CLOSER TO THE 12Z
FORECAST TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE THE SAME KIND OF PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BROAD TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...ALL WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE TRAPPED STRATO-CU ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHEN THE LOWER LEVEL PATTER BECOMES LESS CYCLONIC.
THE NAM SUGGESTS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO INDIANA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT THAT TIME. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND WITH CLOUDY
SKIES UNTIL MIDDAY THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT
CLOSE TO MAVMOS...AND TREND HIGHS ON THURSDAY COOLER THAN MAVMOS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE GFS DEPICTS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...KEEPING COOL
AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE CORE OF COLD AIR HAD MOVES EAST OF INDIANA...HOWEVER
ONLY BROAD AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS 850MB TEMPS
ONLY SLOWLY RISE TO -4 BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
RATHER DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL ONLY EXPECT SOME
HIGH CLOUDS. WILL TREND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TOWARD
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MAVMOS FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 143 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

ENSEMBLES STILL NOT IN THE GREATEST OF AGREEMENT...NOR BEING
CONSISTENT AS THEY DEPICT A DEVELOPING COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
IT IS POSSIBLE A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN POSSIBLY A STRONGER SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER THIS WEAK RAIN/SNOW MIX
CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WEAK LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST...DUE TO COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY ROUGH EARLY ESTIMATE OF LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...OR
UPWARDS AROUND AN INCH OVER A 24 HOUR PLUS HOUR PERIOD. STILL SO
MUCH VARIANCE AMONG THE GUIDANCE AND REALLY TOO EARLY AT THIS
POINT FOR MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1206 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CEILINGS 025-035 THAT WERE OVER CENTRAL
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOW PARTIALLY ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL
INDIANA MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST. THESE CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND THROUGH TONIGHT...AND EVEN EARLY TOMORROW (THURSDAY) MORNING.
THE LAST SITE TO FALL TO MVFR WILL BE KBMG...WHICH IS ABOUT 1-2
HOURS FROM THE EDGE OF THIS LOWER (MVFR) STRATO CU DECK AND IS
FORECAST TO GO FROM BKN035 TO OVC030 BY 20-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT MID TO HIGH END MVFR ALL NIGHT LONG.
CURRENTLY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE AND
CAUSING GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...WITH A FEW SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE IN UPWARDS OF 35 MPH. THESE GUSTS WILL BEGIN
TO DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF
THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/NIELD
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF




000
FXUS63 KIND 031721
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1221 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PUSH TO ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC BY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS
STATES BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS INDIANA AND MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FROM WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THUS WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF
NONMEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. HAVE ADJUSTED HOWEVER TO
DRIZZLE OR A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FLURRIES FOR AREAS WHEN HOURLY TEMPS
ARE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ALL FLURRIES.

ADDITIONALLY...ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SKY GRIDS FOR TIMING AND
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY EARLY WITH THE AMPLE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING.
SHOULD CLOUD OVER STEADILY AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER
NRN ILLINOIS AND LAKE MICHIGAN. A DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
WAS FOUND OVER SE MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT
WAS FOUND ACROSS NW MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AMID SOUTH
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. RADAR SHOWS THE LAST EDGE OF
PRECIP PUSHING THROUGH INDY METRO AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE DEEP LOW OVER NRN ILLINOIS
WILL PUSH WELL TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...AND IN PROCESS DRAG THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SYSTEM. MEANWHILE
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...ALL WHILE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. MEANWHILE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW SATURATED LOWER
LEVELS AS DO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICATING TRAPPED STRATO-
CU. FINALLY...THE GFS AND AND BOTH SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS UNAVAILABLE...HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE...A FLURRY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THUS AFTER THE DRY SLOT PASSES AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
RETURNS...WILL TREND TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHC FOR A
FLURRY. GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FORECAST HIGHS
NEAR 12Z EXPECTED TEMPS TRENDING COOLER AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS...CLOSER TO THE 12Z
FORECAST TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE THE SAME KIND OF PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BROAD TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...ALL WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE TRAPPED STRATO-CU ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHEN THE LOWER LEVEL PATTER BECOMES LESS CYCLONIC.
THE NAM SUGGESTS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO INDIANA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT THAT TIME. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND WITH CLOUDY
SKIES UNTIL MIDDAY THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT
CLOSE TO MAVMOS...AND TREND HIGHS ON THURSDAY COOLER THAN MAVMOS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE GFS DEPICTS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...KEEPING COOL
AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE CORE OF COLD AIR HAD MOVES EAST OF INDIANA...HOWEVER
ONLY BROAD AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS 850MB TEMPS
ONLY SLOWLY RISE TO -4 BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
RATHER DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL ONLY EXPECT SOME
HIGH CLOUDS. WILL TREND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TOWARD
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MAVMOS FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

STILL QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE AMONG THE ENSEMBLES WITH RESPECT TO A
DEVELOPING COLD UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
SYSTEM. MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS SUGGEST A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE MORE SUPPORT
TODAY FOR POTENTIAL SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AND CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
THICKNESSES LOWER IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1206 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CEILINGS 025-035 THAT WERE OVER CENTRAL
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOW PARTIALLY ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL
INDIANA MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST. THESE CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND THROUGH TONIGHT...AND EVEN EARLY TOMORROW (THURSDAY) MORNING.
THE LAST SITE TO FALL TO MVFR WILL BE KBMG...WHICH IS ABOUT 1-2
HOURS FROM THE EDGE OF THIS LOWER (MVFR) STRATO CU DECK AND IS
FORECAST TO GO FROM BKN035 TO OVC030 BY 20-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT MID TO HIGH END MVFR ALL NIGHT LONG.
CURRENTLY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE AND
CAUSING GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...WITH A FEW SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE IN UPWARDS OF 35 MPH. THESE GUSTS WILL BEGIN
TO DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF
THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/NIELD
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...SMF





000
FXUS63 KIND 031721
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1221 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PUSH TO ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC BY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS
STATES BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS INDIANA AND MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FROM WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THUS WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF
NONMEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. HAVE ADJUSTED HOWEVER TO
DRIZZLE OR A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FLURRIES FOR AREAS WHEN HOURLY TEMPS
ARE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ALL FLURRIES.

ADDITIONALLY...ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SKY GRIDS FOR TIMING AND
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY EARLY WITH THE AMPLE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING.
SHOULD CLOUD OVER STEADILY AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER
NRN ILLINOIS AND LAKE MICHIGAN. A DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
WAS FOUND OVER SE MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT
WAS FOUND ACROSS NW MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AMID SOUTH
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. RADAR SHOWS THE LAST EDGE OF
PRECIP PUSHING THROUGH INDY METRO AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE DEEP LOW OVER NRN ILLINOIS
WILL PUSH WELL TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...AND IN PROCESS DRAG THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SYSTEM. MEANWHILE
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...ALL WHILE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. MEANWHILE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW SATURATED LOWER
LEVELS AS DO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICATING TRAPPED STRATO-
CU. FINALLY...THE GFS AND AND BOTH SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS UNAVAILABLE...HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE...A FLURRY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THUS AFTER THE DRY SLOT PASSES AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
RETURNS...WILL TREND TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHC FOR A
FLURRY. GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FORECAST HIGHS
NEAR 12Z EXPECTED TEMPS TRENDING COOLER AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS...CLOSER TO THE 12Z
FORECAST TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE THE SAME KIND OF PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BROAD TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...ALL WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE TRAPPED STRATO-CU ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHEN THE LOWER LEVEL PATTER BECOMES LESS CYCLONIC.
THE NAM SUGGESTS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO INDIANA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT THAT TIME. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND WITH CLOUDY
SKIES UNTIL MIDDAY THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT
CLOSE TO MAVMOS...AND TREND HIGHS ON THURSDAY COOLER THAN MAVMOS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE GFS DEPICTS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...KEEPING COOL
AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE CORE OF COLD AIR HAD MOVES EAST OF INDIANA...HOWEVER
ONLY BROAD AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS 850MB TEMPS
ONLY SLOWLY RISE TO -4 BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
RATHER DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL ONLY EXPECT SOME
HIGH CLOUDS. WILL TREND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TOWARD
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MAVMOS FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

STILL QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE AMONG THE ENSEMBLES WITH RESPECT TO A
DEVELOPING COLD UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
SYSTEM. MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS SUGGEST A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE MORE SUPPORT
TODAY FOR POTENTIAL SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AND CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
THICKNESSES LOWER IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1206 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CEILINGS 025-035 THAT WERE OVER CENTRAL
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOW PARTIALLY ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL
INDIANA MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST. THESE CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND THROUGH TONIGHT...AND EVEN EARLY TOMORROW (THURSDAY) MORNING.
THE LAST SITE TO FALL TO MVFR WILL BE KBMG...WHICH IS ABOUT 1-2
HOURS FROM THE EDGE OF THIS LOWER (MVFR) STRATO CU DECK AND IS
FORECAST TO GO FROM BKN035 TO OVC030 BY 20-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT MID TO HIGH END MVFR ALL NIGHT LONG.
CURRENTLY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE AND
CAUSING GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...WITH A FEW SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE IN UPWARDS OF 35 MPH. THESE GUSTS WILL BEGIN
TO DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF
THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/NIELD
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...SMF





000
FXUS63 KIND 031721
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1221 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PUSH TO ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC BY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS
STATES BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS INDIANA AND MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FROM WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THUS WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF
NONMEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. HAVE ADJUSTED HOWEVER TO
DRIZZLE OR A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FLURRIES FOR AREAS WHEN HOURLY TEMPS
ARE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ALL FLURRIES.

ADDITIONALLY...ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SKY GRIDS FOR TIMING AND
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY EARLY WITH THE AMPLE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING.
SHOULD CLOUD OVER STEADILY AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER
NRN ILLINOIS AND LAKE MICHIGAN. A DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
WAS FOUND OVER SE MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT
WAS FOUND ACROSS NW MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AMID SOUTH
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. RADAR SHOWS THE LAST EDGE OF
PRECIP PUSHING THROUGH INDY METRO AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE DEEP LOW OVER NRN ILLINOIS
WILL PUSH WELL TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...AND IN PROCESS DRAG THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SYSTEM. MEANWHILE
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...ALL WHILE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. MEANWHILE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW SATURATED LOWER
LEVELS AS DO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICATING TRAPPED STRATO-
CU. FINALLY...THE GFS AND AND BOTH SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS UNAVAILABLE...HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE...A FLURRY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THUS AFTER THE DRY SLOT PASSES AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
RETURNS...WILL TREND TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHC FOR A
FLURRY. GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FORECAST HIGHS
NEAR 12Z EXPECTED TEMPS TRENDING COOLER AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS...CLOSER TO THE 12Z
FORECAST TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE THE SAME KIND OF PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BROAD TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...ALL WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE TRAPPED STRATO-CU ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHEN THE LOWER LEVEL PATTER BECOMES LESS CYCLONIC.
THE NAM SUGGESTS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO INDIANA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT THAT TIME. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND WITH CLOUDY
SKIES UNTIL MIDDAY THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT
CLOSE TO MAVMOS...AND TREND HIGHS ON THURSDAY COOLER THAN MAVMOS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE GFS DEPICTS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...KEEPING COOL
AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE CORE OF COLD AIR HAD MOVES EAST OF INDIANA...HOWEVER
ONLY BROAD AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS 850MB TEMPS
ONLY SLOWLY RISE TO -4 BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
RATHER DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL ONLY EXPECT SOME
HIGH CLOUDS. WILL TREND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TOWARD
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MAVMOS FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

STILL QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE AMONG THE ENSEMBLES WITH RESPECT TO A
DEVELOPING COLD UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
SYSTEM. MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS SUGGEST A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE MORE SUPPORT
TODAY FOR POTENTIAL SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AND CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
THICKNESSES LOWER IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1206 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CEILINGS 025-035 THAT WERE OVER CENTRAL
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOW PARTIALLY ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL
INDIANA MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST. THESE CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND THROUGH TONIGHT...AND EVEN EARLY TOMORROW (THURSDAY) MORNING.
THE LAST SITE TO FALL TO MVFR WILL BE KBMG...WHICH IS ABOUT 1-2
HOURS FROM THE EDGE OF THIS LOWER (MVFR) STRATO CU DECK AND IS
FORECAST TO GO FROM BKN035 TO OVC030 BY 20-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT MID TO HIGH END MVFR ALL NIGHT LONG.
CURRENTLY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE AND
CAUSING GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...WITH A FEW SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE IN UPWARDS OF 35 MPH. THESE GUSTS WILL BEGIN
TO DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF
THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/NIELD
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...SMF




000
FXUS63 KIND 031518
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1018 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PUSH TO ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC BY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS
STATES BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS INDIANA AND MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FROM WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THUS WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF
NONMEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. HAVE ADJUSTED HOWEVER TO
DRIZZLE OR A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FLURRIES FOR AREAS WHEN HOURLY TEMPS
ARE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ALL FLURRIES.

ADDITIONALLY...ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SKY GRIDS FOR TIMING AND
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY EARLY WITH THE AMPLE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING.
SHOULD CLOUD OVER STEADILY AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER
NRN ILLINOIS AND LAKE MICHIGAN. A DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
WAS FOUND OVER SE MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT
WAS FOUND ACROSS NW MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AMID SOUTH
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. RADAR SHOWS THE LAST EDGE OF
PRECIP PUSHING THROUGH INDY METRO AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE DEEP LOW OVER NRN ILLINOIS
WILL PUSH WELL TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...AND IN PROCESS DRAG THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SYSTEM. MEANWHILE
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...ALL WHILE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. MEANWHILE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW SATURATED LOWER
LEVELS AS DO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICATING TRAPPED STRATO-
CU. FINALLY...THE GFS AND AND BOTH SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS UNAVAILABLE...HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE...A FLURRY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THUS AFTER THE DRY SLOT PASSES AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
RETURNS...WILL TREND TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHC FOR A
FLURRY. GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FORECAST HIGHS
NEAR 12Z EXPECTED TEMPS TRENDING COOLER AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS...CLOSER TO THE 12Z
FORECAST TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE THE SAME KIND OF PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BROAD TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...ALL WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE TRAPPED STRATO-CU ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHEN THE LOWER LEVEL PATTER BECOMES LESS CYCLONIC.
THE NAM SUGGESTS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO INDIANA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT THAT TIME. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND WITH CLOUDY
SKIES UNTIL MIDDAY THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT
CLOSE TO MAVMOS...AND TREND HIGHS ON THURSDAY COOLER THAN MAVMOS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE GFS DEPICTS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...KEEPING COOL
AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE CORE OF COLD AIR HAD MOVES EAST OF INDIANA...HOWEVER
ONLY BROAD AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS 850MB TEMPS
ONLY SLOWLY RISE TO -4 BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
RATHER DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL ONLY EXPECT SOME
HIGH CLOUDS. WILL TREND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TOWARD
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MAVMOS FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

STILL QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE AMONG THE ENSEMBLES WITH RESPECT TO A
DEVELOPING COLD UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
SYSTEM. MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS SUGGEST A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE MORE SUPPORT
TODAY FOR POTENTIAL SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AND CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
THICKNESSES LOWER IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

1450Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

LIFR CONDITIONS THAT HAD BEEN IMPACTING THE KLAF TERMINALS HAVE PUSHED OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST BASED ON SATELLITE LOOP.

OTHERWISE...EXTENSIVE AREA OF CEILINGS 025-035 CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN ILLINOIS WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST
AFTER ABOUT 031600Z. THESE CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

MID LEVEL JET STREAK IN EXCESS OF 100 KTS OVER THE AREA TODAY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR FREQUENT SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FROM 230-260 DEGREES TO
DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS BY MIDDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/NIELD
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...SMF/JAS





000
FXUS63 KIND 031511
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1011 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PUSH TO ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC BY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS
STATES BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS INDIANA AND MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FROM WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER
NRN ILLINOIS AND LAKE MICHIGAN. A DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
WAS FOUND OVER SE MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT
WAS FOUND ACROSS NW MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AMID SOUTH
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. RADAR SHOWS THE LAST EDGE OF
PRECIP PUSHING THROUGH INDY METRO AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE DEEP LOW OVER NRN ILLINOIS
WILL PUSH WELL TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...AND IN PROCESS DRAG THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SYSTEM. MEANWHILE
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...ALL WHILE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. MEANWHILE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW SATURATED LOWER
LEVELS AS DO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICATING TRAPPED STRATO-
CU. FINALLY...THE GFS AND AND BOTH SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS UNAVAILABLE...HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE...A FLURRY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THUS AFTER THE DRY SLOT PASSES AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
RETURNS...WILL TREND TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHC FOR A
FLURRY. GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FORECAST HIGHS
NEAR 12Z EXPECTED TEMPS TRENDING COOLER AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS...CLOSER TO THE 12Z
FORECAST TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE THE SAME KIND OF PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BROAD TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...ALL WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE TRAPPED STRATO-CU ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHEN THE LOWER LEVEL PATTER BECOMES LESS CYCLONIC.
THE NAM SUGGESTS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO INDIANA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT THAT TIME. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND WITH CLOUDY
SKIES UNTIL MIDDAY THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT
CLOSE TO MAVMOS...AND TREND HIGHS ON THURSDAY COOLER THAN MAVMOS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE GFS DEPICTS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...KEEPING COOL
AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE CORE OF COLD AIR HAD MOVES EAST OF INDIANA...HOWEVER
ONLY BROAD AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS 850MB TEMPS
ONLY SLOWLY RISE TO -4 BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
RATHER DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL ONLY EXPECT SOME
HIGH CLOUDS. WILL TREND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TOWARD
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MAVMOS FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

STILL QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE AMONG THE ENSEMBLES WITH RESPECT TO A
DEVELOPING COLD UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
SYSTEM. MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS SUGGEST A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE MORE SUPPORT
TODAY FOR POTENTIAL SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AND CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
THICKNESSES LOWER IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1009 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

1450Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

LIFR CONDITIONS THAT HAD BEEN IMPACTING THE KLAF TERMINALS HAVE PUSHED OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST BASED ON SATELLITE LOOP.

OTHERWISE...EXTENSIVE AREA OF CEILINGS 025-035 CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN ILLINOIS WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST
AFTER ABOUT 031600Z. THESE CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

MID LEVEL JET STREAK IN EXCESS OF 100 KTS OVER THE AREA TODAY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR FREQUENT SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FROM 230-260 DEGREES TO
DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS BY MIDDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF/JAS





000
FXUS63 KIND 031511
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1011 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PUSH TO ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC BY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS
STATES BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS INDIANA AND MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FROM WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER
NRN ILLINOIS AND LAKE MICHIGAN. A DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
WAS FOUND OVER SE MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT
WAS FOUND ACROSS NW MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AMID SOUTH
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. RADAR SHOWS THE LAST EDGE OF
PRECIP PUSHING THROUGH INDY METRO AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE DEEP LOW OVER NRN ILLINOIS
WILL PUSH WELL TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...AND IN PROCESS DRAG THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SYSTEM. MEANWHILE
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...ALL WHILE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. MEANWHILE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW SATURATED LOWER
LEVELS AS DO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICATING TRAPPED STRATO-
CU. FINALLY...THE GFS AND AND BOTH SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS UNAVAILABLE...HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE...A FLURRY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THUS AFTER THE DRY SLOT PASSES AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
RETURNS...WILL TREND TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHC FOR A
FLURRY. GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FORECAST HIGHS
NEAR 12Z EXPECTED TEMPS TRENDING COOLER AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS...CLOSER TO THE 12Z
FORECAST TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE THE SAME KIND OF PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BROAD TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...ALL WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE TRAPPED STRATO-CU ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHEN THE LOWER LEVEL PATTER BECOMES LESS CYCLONIC.
THE NAM SUGGESTS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO INDIANA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT THAT TIME. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND WITH CLOUDY
SKIES UNTIL MIDDAY THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT
CLOSE TO MAVMOS...AND TREND HIGHS ON THURSDAY COOLER THAN MAVMOS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE GFS DEPICTS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...KEEPING COOL
AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE CORE OF COLD AIR HAD MOVES EAST OF INDIANA...HOWEVER
ONLY BROAD AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS 850MB TEMPS
ONLY SLOWLY RISE TO -4 BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
RATHER DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL ONLY EXPECT SOME
HIGH CLOUDS. WILL TREND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TOWARD
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MAVMOS FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

STILL QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE AMONG THE ENSEMBLES WITH RESPECT TO A
DEVELOPING COLD UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
SYSTEM. MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS SUGGEST A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE MORE SUPPORT
TODAY FOR POTENTIAL SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AND CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
THICKNESSES LOWER IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1009 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

1450Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

LIFR CONDITIONS THAT HAD BEEN IMPACTING THE KLAF TERMINALS HAVE PUSHED OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST BASED ON SATELLITE LOOP.

OTHERWISE...EXTENSIVE AREA OF CEILINGS 025-035 CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN ILLINOIS WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST
AFTER ABOUT 031600Z. THESE CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

MID LEVEL JET STREAK IN EXCESS OF 100 KTS OVER THE AREA TODAY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR FREQUENT SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FROM 230-260 DEGREES TO
DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS BY MIDDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF/JAS





000
FXUS63 KIND 031511
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1011 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PUSH TO ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC BY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS
STATES BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS INDIANA AND MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FROM WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER
NRN ILLINOIS AND LAKE MICHIGAN. A DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
WAS FOUND OVER SE MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT
WAS FOUND ACROSS NW MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AMID SOUTH
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. RADAR SHOWS THE LAST EDGE OF
PRECIP PUSHING THROUGH INDY METRO AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE DEEP LOW OVER NRN ILLINOIS
WILL PUSH WELL TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...AND IN PROCESS DRAG THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SYSTEM. MEANWHILE
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...ALL WHILE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. MEANWHILE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW SATURATED LOWER
LEVELS AS DO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICATING TRAPPED STRATO-
CU. FINALLY...THE GFS AND AND BOTH SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS UNAVAILABLE...HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE...A FLURRY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THUS AFTER THE DRY SLOT PASSES AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
RETURNS...WILL TREND TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHC FOR A
FLURRY. GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FORECAST HIGHS
NEAR 12Z EXPECTED TEMPS TRENDING COOLER AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS...CLOSER TO THE 12Z
FORECAST TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE THE SAME KIND OF PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BROAD TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...ALL WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE TRAPPED STRATO-CU ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHEN THE LOWER LEVEL PATTER BECOMES LESS CYCLONIC.
THE NAM SUGGESTS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO INDIANA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT THAT TIME. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND WITH CLOUDY
SKIES UNTIL MIDDAY THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT
CLOSE TO MAVMOS...AND TREND HIGHS ON THURSDAY COOLER THAN MAVMOS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE GFS DEPICTS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...KEEPING COOL
AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE CORE OF COLD AIR HAD MOVES EAST OF INDIANA...HOWEVER
ONLY BROAD AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS 850MB TEMPS
ONLY SLOWLY RISE TO -4 BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
RATHER DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL ONLY EXPECT SOME
HIGH CLOUDS. WILL TREND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TOWARD
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MAVMOS FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

STILL QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE AMONG THE ENSEMBLES WITH RESPECT TO A
DEVELOPING COLD UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
SYSTEM. MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS SUGGEST A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE MORE SUPPORT
TODAY FOR POTENTIAL SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AND CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
THICKNESSES LOWER IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1009 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

1450Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

LIFR CONDITIONS THAT HAD BEEN IMPACTING THE KLAF TERMINALS HAVE PUSHED OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST BASED ON SATELLITE LOOP.

OTHERWISE...EXTENSIVE AREA OF CEILINGS 025-035 CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN ILLINOIS WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST
AFTER ABOUT 031600Z. THESE CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

MID LEVEL JET STREAK IN EXCESS OF 100 KTS OVER THE AREA TODAY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR FREQUENT SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FROM 230-260 DEGREES TO
DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS BY MIDDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF/JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 031038
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
536 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PUSH TO ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC BY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS
STATES BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS INDIANA AND MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FROM WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER
NRN ILLINOIS AND LAKE MICHIGAN. A DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
WAS FOUND OVER SE MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT
WAS FOUND ACROSS NW MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AMID SOUTH
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. RADAR SHOWS THE LAST EDGE OF
PRECIP PUSHING THROUGH INDY METRO AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE DEEP LOW OVER NRN ILLINOIS
WILL PUSH WELL TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...AND IN PROCESS DRAG THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SYSTEM. MEANWHILE
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...ALL WHILE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. MEANWHILE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW SATURATED LOWER
LEVELS AS DO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICATING TRAPPED STRATO-
CU. FINALLY...THE GFS AND AND BOTH SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS UNAVAILABLE...HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE...A FLURRY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THUS AFTER THE DRY SLOT PASSES AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
RETURNS...WILL TREND TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHC FOR A
FLURRY. GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FORECAST HIGHS
NEAR 12Z EXPECTED TEMPS TRENDING COOLER AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS...CLOSER TO THE 12Z
FORECAST TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE THE SAME KIND OF PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BROAD TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...ALL WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE TRAPPED STRATO-CU ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHEN THE LOWER LEVEL PATTER BECOMES LESS CYCLONIC.
THE NAM SUGGESTS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO INDIANA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT THAT TIME. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND WITH CLOUDY
SKIES UNTIL MIDDAY THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT
CLOSE TO MAVMOS...AND TREND HIGHS ON THURSDAY COOLER THAN MAVMOS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE GFS DEPICTS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...KEEPING COOL
AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE CORE OF COLD AIR HAD MOVES EAST OF INDIANA...HOWEVER
ONLY BROAD AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS 850MB TEMPS
ONLY SLOWLY RISE TO -4 BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
RATHER DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL ONLY EXPECT SOME
HIGH CLOUDS. WILL TREND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TOWARD
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MAVMOS FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

STILL QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE AMONG THE ENSEMBLES WITH RESPECT TO A
DEVELOPING COLD UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
SYSTEM. MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS SUGGEST A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE MORE SUPPORT
TODAY FOR POTENTIAL SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AND CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
THICKNESSES LOWER IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 536 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

LIFR CONDITIONS THAT HAD BEEN IMPACTING THE KLAF TERMINALS HAVE PUSHED OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST BASED ON SATELLITE LOOP.

OTHERWISE...EXTENSIVE AREA OF CEILINGS 025-035 CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN ILLINOIS WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST
AFTER ABOUT 031600Z. THESE CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

MID LEVEL JET STREAK IN EXCESS OF 100 KTS OVER THE AREA TODAY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR FREQUENT SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FROM 230-260 DEGREES TO
DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS BY MIDDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS





000
FXUS63 KIND 031038
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
536 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PUSH TO ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC BY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS
STATES BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS INDIANA AND MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FROM WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER
NRN ILLINOIS AND LAKE MICHIGAN. A DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
WAS FOUND OVER SE MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT
WAS FOUND ACROSS NW MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AMID SOUTH
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. RADAR SHOWS THE LAST EDGE OF
PRECIP PUSHING THROUGH INDY METRO AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE DEEP LOW OVER NRN ILLINOIS
WILL PUSH WELL TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...AND IN PROCESS DRAG THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SYSTEM. MEANWHILE
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...ALL WHILE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. MEANWHILE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW SATURATED LOWER
LEVELS AS DO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICATING TRAPPED STRATO-
CU. FINALLY...THE GFS AND AND BOTH SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS UNAVAILABLE...HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE...A FLURRY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THUS AFTER THE DRY SLOT PASSES AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
RETURNS...WILL TREND TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHC FOR A
FLURRY. GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FORECAST HIGHS
NEAR 12Z EXPECTED TEMPS TRENDING COOLER AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS...CLOSER TO THE 12Z
FORECAST TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE THE SAME KIND OF PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BROAD TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...ALL WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE TRAPPED STRATO-CU ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHEN THE LOWER LEVEL PATTER BECOMES LESS CYCLONIC.
THE NAM SUGGESTS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO INDIANA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT THAT TIME. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND WITH CLOUDY
SKIES UNTIL MIDDAY THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT
CLOSE TO MAVMOS...AND TREND HIGHS ON THURSDAY COOLER THAN MAVMOS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE GFS DEPICTS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...KEEPING COOL
AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE CORE OF COLD AIR HAD MOVES EAST OF INDIANA...HOWEVER
ONLY BROAD AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS 850MB TEMPS
ONLY SLOWLY RISE TO -4 BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
RATHER DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL ONLY EXPECT SOME
HIGH CLOUDS. WILL TREND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TOWARD
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MAVMOS FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

STILL QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE AMONG THE ENSEMBLES WITH RESPECT TO A
DEVELOPING COLD UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
SYSTEM. MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS SUGGEST A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE MORE SUPPORT
TODAY FOR POTENTIAL SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AND CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
THICKNESSES LOWER IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 536 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

LIFR CONDITIONS THAT HAD BEEN IMPACTING THE KLAF TERMINALS HAVE PUSHED OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST BASED ON SATELLITE LOOP.

OTHERWISE...EXTENSIVE AREA OF CEILINGS 025-035 CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN ILLINOIS WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST
AFTER ABOUT 031600Z. THESE CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

MID LEVEL JET STREAK IN EXCESS OF 100 KTS OVER THE AREA TODAY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR FREQUENT SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FROM 230-260 DEGREES TO
DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS BY MIDDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 030821
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
319 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PUSH TO ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC BY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS
STATES BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS INDIANA AND MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FROM WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER
NRN ILLINOIS AND LAKE MICHIGAN. A DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
WAS FOUND OVER SE MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT
WAS FOUND ACROSS NW MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AMID SOUTH
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. RADAR SHOWS THE LAST EDGE OF
PRECIP PUSHING THROUGH INDY METRO AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE DEEP LOW OVER NRN ILLINOIS
WILL PUSH WELL TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...AND IN PROCESS DRAG THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SYSTEM. MEANWHILE
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...ALL WHILE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. MEANWHILE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW SATURATED LOWER
LEVELS AS DO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICATING TRAPPED STRATO-
CU. FINALLY...THE GFS AND AND BOTH SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS UNAVAILABLE...HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE...A FLURRY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THUS AFTER THE DRY SLOT PASSES AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
RETURNS...WILL TREND TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHC FOR A
FLURRY. GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FORECAST HIGHS
NEAR 12Z EXPECTED TEMPS TRENDING COOLER AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS...CLOSER TO THE 12Z
FORECAST TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE THE SAME KIND OF PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BROAD TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...ALL WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE TRAPPED STRATO-CU ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHEN THE LOWER LEVEL PATTER BECOMES LESS CYCLONIC.
THE NAM SUGGESTS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO INDIANA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT THAT TIME. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND WITH CLOUDY
SKIES UNTIL MIDDAY THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT
CLOSE TO MAVMOS...AND TREND HIGHS ON THURSDAY COOLER THAN MAVMOS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE GFS DEPICTS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...KEEPING COOL
AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE CORE OF COLD AIR HAD MOVES EAST OF INDIANA...HOWEVER
ONLY BROAD AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS 850MB TEMPS
ONLY SLOWLY RISE TO -4 BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
RATHER DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL ONLY EXPECT SOME
HIGH CLOUDS. WILL TREND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TOWARD
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MAVMOS FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

STILL QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE AMONG THE ENSEMBLES WITH RESPECT TO A
DEVELOPING COLD UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
SYSTEM. MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS SUGGEST A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE MORE SUPPORT
TODAY FOR POTENTIAL SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AND CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
THICKNESSES LOWER IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

HAVEN/T SEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN THE POST FRONTAL
ZONE SO FAR. MAY BE MORE TOWARDS AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE THESE GUSTS START
UP AGAIN. WILL TAKE THEM OUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ON THE UPDATE.

LIFR CONDITIONS OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE KIND
TERMINAL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT EAST OF THE SITES WITH ONLY A THIN LINE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS STILL SHOWING UP ON RADAR SET TO MOVE THROUGH KIND
IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER RIGHT AROUND ISSUANCE TIME. DRY AIR WILL
MOVE IN TO KHUF...KBMG AND KIND AND SCATTER OUT CLOUD DECKS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THOSE SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS STAYING 5 TO 10+ KTS AND SOME OFF AND ON GUSTS. CONDITIONS
AT KLAF ARE LOWER CONFIDENCE THOUGH WITH THE LOW TRACK NEAR THERE.
COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS DEVELOP THERE FOR A FEW HOURS
SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE AND CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN HOW LONG THOSE
CONDITIONS WILL LAST. THEY SHOULD MIX OUT AS WINDS PICK BACK UP
AGAIN EARLY MORNING. THEN WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS REDEVELOP AND
POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES IN THE WRAPAROUND AREA OF THE LOW. WIND
GUSTS WILL PICK UP AGAIN BY LATE MORNING AND COULD SEE GUSTS IN
THE 25-35 KT RANGE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...CP/JAS





000
FXUS63 KIND 030733
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PUSH TO ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC BY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS
STATES BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS INDIANA AND MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FROM WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER
NRN ILLINOIS AND LAKE MICHIGAN. A DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
WAS FOUND OVER SE MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT
WAS FOUND ACROSS NW MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AMID SOUTH
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. RADAR SHOWS THE LAST EDGE OF
PRECIP PUSHING THROUGH INDY METRO AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE DEEP LOW OVER NRN ILLINOIS
WILL PUSH WELL TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...AND IN PROCESS DRAG THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SYSTEM. MEANWHILE
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...ALL WHILE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. MEANWHILE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW SATURATED LOWER
LEVELS AS DO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICATING TRAPPED STRATO-
CU. FINALLY...THE GFS AND AND BOTH SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS UNAVAILABLE...HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE...A FLURRY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THUS AFTER THE DRY SLOT PASSES AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
RETURNS...WILL TREND TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHC FOR A
FLURRY. GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FORECAST HIGHS
NEAR 12Z EXPECTED TEMPS TRENDING COOLER AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS...CLOSER TO THE 12Z
FORECAST TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE THE SAME KIND OF PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BROAD TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...ALL WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE TRAPPED STRATO-CU ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHEN THE LOWER LEVEL PATTER BECOMES LESS CYCLONIC.
THE NAM SUGGESTS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO INDIANA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT THAT TIME. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND WITH CLOUDY
SKIES UNTIL MIDDAY THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT
CLOSE TO MAVMOS...AND TREND HIGHS ON THURSDAY COOLER THAN MAVMOS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE GFS DEPICTS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...KEEPING COOL
AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE CORE OF COLD AIR HAD MOVES EAST OF INDIANA...HOWEVER
ONLY BROAD AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS 850MB TEMPS
ONLY SLOWLY RISE TO -4 BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
RATHER DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL ONLY EXPECT SOME
HIGH CLOUDS. WILL TREND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TOWARD
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MAVMOS FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 233 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

STILL QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE AMONG THE ENSEMBLES WITH RESPECT TO A
DEVELOPING COLD UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
SYSTEM. MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS SUGGEST A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE MORE SUPPORT
TODAY FOR POTENTIAL SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AND CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
THICKNESSES LOWER IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 030600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT EAST OF THE SITES WITH ONLY A THIN LINE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS STILL SHOWING UP ON RADAR SET TO MOVE THROUGH KIND
IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER RIGHT AROUND ISSUANCE TIME. DRY AIR WILL
MOVE IN TO KHUF...KBMG AND KIND AND SCATTER OUT CLOUD DECKS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THOSE SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS STAYING 5 TO 10+ KTS AND SOME OFF AND ON GUSTS. CONDITIONS
AT KLAF ARE LOWER CONFIDENCE THOUGH WITH THE LOW TRACK NEAR THERE.
COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS DEVELOP THERE FOR A FEW HOURS
SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE AND CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN HOW LONG THOSE
CONDITIONS WILL LAST. THEY SHOULD MIX OUT AS WINDS PICK BACK UP
AGAIN EARLY MORNING. THEN WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS REDEVELOP AND
POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES IN THE WRAPAROUND AREA OF THE LOW. WIND
GUSTS WILL PICK UP AGAIN BY LATE MORNING AND COULD SEE GUSTS IN
THE 25-35 KT RANGE.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 030443
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1143 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. COOLER...BUT GENERALLY STILL NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES RETURN INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL BRING LOW SNOW CHANCES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE LOW WAS JUST NORTH OF LAFAYETTE AND
MODELS INDICATE THIS LOW WILL BE NEAR SOUTH BEND BY 06Z AND NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN BY 12Z.   NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE THE
RULE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR AREA AND AND A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE STILL THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS AN 850 MB 65 TO 70 KNOT JET OVER CENTRAL INDIANA MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST.  WIND SHEAR IS VERY STRONG...BUT AIR MASS IS ONLY SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE.  SPC HAS DOWNGRADED THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. BUT A FEW GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR ANY STRONGER STORMS.
WENT HIGHER WITH THE WINDS OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO A THREAT OVER SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WHERE A HALF INCH OF
RAIN HAS FALLEN PAST FEW HOURS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF EAST
OF INDIANAPOLIS.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END QUICKLY FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION.    THERE COULD BE BRIEF
PATCHY FOG OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS AS A LARGE AREA OF FOG WAS OCCURRING TO OUR WEST.
DECIDED TO LEAVE THIS OUT...AS WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA ONCE
SURFACE LOW MOVES BY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN FALL TO THE UPPER 30S
FAR NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

DURING THE SHORT TERM...A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS AND WEAK UPPER
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF STATES.

THUS FEEL ODDS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE FORECAST. DID ADD MENTION OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE FIRST SURFACE TROUGH. MOISTURE MAY JUST BE ENOUGH
FOR THAT ONLY.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 137 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE CENTRAL REGION SOFTWARE WILL BE USED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. ALSO...ENSEMBLE SPREADS ARE LOW.

THERE WAS GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH EARLIER MODEL
RUNS. CONGRUENCE ABOUT NEXT WEEK IS A NEWER DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE
FACT MOST GUIDANCE HEADED TO THE SAME SOLUTION STRONGLY SUPPORTS
IT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 030600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT EAST OF THE SITES WITH ONLY A THIN LINE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS STILL SHOWING UP ON RADAR SET TO MOVE THROUGH KIND
IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER RIGHT AROUND ISSUANCE TIME. DRY AIR WILL
MOVE IN TO KHUF...KBMG AND KIND AND SCATTER OUT CLOUD DECKS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THOSE SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS STAYING 5 TO 10+ KTS AND SOME OFF AND ON GUSTS. CONDITIONS
AT KLAF ARE LOWER CONFIDENCE THOUGH WITH THE LOW TRACK NEAR THERE.
COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS DEVELOP THERE FOR A FEW HOURS
SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE AND CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN HOW LONG THOSE
CONDITIONS WILL LAST. THEY SHOULD MIX OUT AS WINDS PICK BACK UP
AGAIN EARLY MORNING. THEN WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS REDEVELOP AND
POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES IN THE WRAPAROUND AREA OF THE LOW. WIND
GUSTS WILL PICK UP AGAIN BY LATE MORNING AND COULD SEE GUSTS IN
THE 25-35 KT RANGE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 030311
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1000 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. COOLER...BUT GENERALLY STILL NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES RETURN INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL BRING LOW SNOW CHANCES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE LOW WAS JUST NORTH OF LAFAYETTE AND
MODELS INDICATE THIS LOW WILL BE NEAR SOUTH BEND BY 06Z AND NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN BY 12Z.   NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE THE
RULE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR AREA AND AND A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE STILL THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS AN 850 MB 65 TO 70 KNOT JET OVER CENTRAL INDIANA MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST.  WIND SHEAR IS VERY STRONG...BUT AIR MASS IS ONLY SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE.  SPC HAS DOWNGRADED THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. BUT A FEW GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR ANY STRONGER STORMS.
WENT HIGHER WITH THE WINDS OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO A THREAT OVER SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WHERE A HALF INCH OF
RAIN HAS FALLEN PAST FEW HOURS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF EAST
OF INDIANAPOLIS.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END QUICKLY FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION.    THERE COULD BE BRIEF
PATCHY FOG OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS AS A LARGE AREA OF FOG WAS OCCURRING TO OUR WEST.
DECIDED TO LEAVE THIS OUT...AS WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA ONCE
SURFACE LOW MOVES BY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN FALL TO THE UPPER 30S
FAR NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

DURING THE SHORT TERM...A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS AND WEAK UPPER
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF STATES.

THUS FEEL ODDS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE FORECAST. DID ADD MENTION OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE FIRST SURFACE TROUGH. MOISTURE MAY JUST BE ENOUGH
FOR THAT ONLY.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 137 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE CENTRAL REGION SOFTWARE WILL BE USED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. ALSO...ENSEMBLE SPREADS ARE LOW.

THERE WAS GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH EARLIER MODEL
RUNS. CONGRUENCE ABOUT NEXT WEEK IS A NEWER DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE
FACT MOST GUIDANCE HEADED TO THE SAME SOLUTION STRONGLY SUPPORTS
IT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 030300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

TWEAKED THE TIMING OF TEMPO THUNDER GROUPS AT KLAF AND KHUF TO
BETTER MATCH RADAR TRENDS AT 3-4Z AND COMPLETELY REMOVED EXPLICIT
THUNDER MENTION FROM KIND WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER OCCURRING
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. LEFT A VCTS IN AT KIND WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES STILL POSSIBLE AROUND THE AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS TO START AT THE SITES THIS
EVENING WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. EXPECT TO SEE
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS FROM 0 TO 4Z AHEAD OF AN
INITIAL COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 4Z TO 8Z WITH
TIMING BASED ON HI RES MODELS. CONDITIONS IN THE RAIN AND STORMS
WILL MAINLY BE MVFR BUT COULD SEE POCKETS OF IFR OR LOWER BRIEFLY
WITHIN HEAVY RAIN. A LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
50+KT WINDS OUT OF THE SSW ABOVE 2000 FT CAUSING A SHEAR LAYER ALOFT
WHILE GUSTS OF 25-40 KTS CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND MORE
WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE SHOW A DRY INTRUSION
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER AND POSSIBLY CLEAR LATE
TONIGHT PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS. WRAPAROUND FROM THE LOW SHOULD
DEVELOP BETWEEN 15-18Z WEDNESDAY HOWEVER AND CEILINGS SHOULD
RETURN TO LOW END MVFR.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 030231
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
930 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. COOLER...BUT GENERALLY STILL NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES RETURN INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL BRING LOW SNOW CHANCES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

WARM FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY NORTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 60
DEGREE TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN INDIANA. PRESSURE FALLS ARE CENTERED
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AT THE MOMENT...SO EXPECT THE WARM AIR TO
SURGE NORTHEAST. EXACTLY HOW WARM STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT IT
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP FOR
MORE THUNDERSTORMS.

STRONG WIND FIELDS ALREADY EXISTS...WITH KIND VAD WIND PROFILE
HAVING ALREADY DETECTED 50KT AT 925MB. AN UPPER JET WILL ALSO MOVE
IN LATER. WITH INSTABILITY...WIND SHEAR...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE
STILL EXPECT A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

SHORT RANGE HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS MOST COVERAGE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. WITH
THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT FEEL THAT THIS AREA COULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN AS WELL...WITH OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE.

GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE WENT CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT...WITH
NEAR 100 POPS SOUTHEAST HALF. BASED ON LATEST TIMING HAVE SLOWED
EXIT OF RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. WILL KEEP SEVERE MENTION THIS EVENING
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
FALL OVERNIGHT. WILL USE A BLEND OF MODELS TO CAPTURE THIS TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

DURING THE SHORT TERM...A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS AND WEAK UPPER
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF STATES.

THUS FEEL ODDS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE FORECAST. DID ADD MENTION OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE FIRST SURFACE TROUGH. MOISTURE MAY JUST BE ENOUGH
FOR THAT ONLY.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 137 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE CENTRAL REGION SOFTWARE WILL BE USED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. ALSO...ENSEMBLE SPREADS ARE LOW.

THERE WAS GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH EARLIER MODEL
RUNS. CONGRUENCE ABOUT NEXT WEEK IS A NEWER DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE
FACT MOST GUIDANCE HEADED TO THE SAME SOLUTION STRONGLY SUPPORTS
IT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 030300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

TWEAKED THE TIMING OF TEMPO THUNDER GROUPS AT KLAF AND KHUF TO
BETTER MATCH RADAR TRENDS AT 3-4Z AND COMPLETELY REMOVED EXPLICIT
THUNDER MENTION FROM KIND WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER OCCURRING
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. LEFT A VCTS IN AT KIND WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES STILL POSSIBLE AROUND THE AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS TO START AT THE SITES THIS
EVENING WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. EXPECT TO SEE
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS FROM 0 TO 4Z AHEAD OF AN
INITIAL COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 4Z TO 8Z WITH
TIMING BASED ON HI RES MODELS. CONDITIONS IN THE RAIN AND STORMS
WILL MAINLY BE MVFR BUT COULD SEE POCKETS OF IFR OR LOWER BRIEFLY
WITHIN HEAVY RAIN. A LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
50+KT WINDS OUT OF THE SSW ABOVE 2000 FT CAUSING A SHEAR LAYER ALOFT
WHILE GUSTS OF 25-40 KTS CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND MORE
WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE SHOW A DRY INTRUSION
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER AND POSSIBLY CLEAR LATE
TONIGHT PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS. WRAPAROUND FROM THE LOW SHOULD
DEVELOP BETWEEN 15-18Z WEDNESDAY HOWEVER AND CEILINGS SHOULD
RETURN TO LOW END MVFR.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 030231
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
930 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. COOLER...BUT GENERALLY STILL NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES RETURN INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL BRING LOW SNOW CHANCES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

WARM FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY NORTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 60
DEGREE TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN INDIANA. PRESSURE FALLS ARE CENTERED
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AT THE MOMENT...SO EXPECT THE WARM AIR TO
SURGE NORTHEAST. EXACTLY HOW WARM STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT IT
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP FOR
MORE THUNDERSTORMS.

STRONG WIND FIELDS ALREADY EXISTS...WITH KIND VAD WIND PROFILE
HAVING ALREADY DETECTED 50KT AT 925MB. AN UPPER JET WILL ALSO MOVE
IN LATER. WITH INSTABILITY...WIND SHEAR...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE
STILL EXPECT A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

SHORT RANGE HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS MOST COVERAGE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. WITH
THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT FEEL THAT THIS AREA COULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN AS WELL...WITH OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE.

GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE WENT CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT...WITH
NEAR 100 POPS SOUTHEAST HALF. BASED ON LATEST TIMING HAVE SLOWED
EXIT OF RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. WILL KEEP SEVERE MENTION THIS EVENING
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
FALL OVERNIGHT. WILL USE A BLEND OF MODELS TO CAPTURE THIS TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

DURING THE SHORT TERM...A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS AND WEAK UPPER
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF STATES.

THUS FEEL ODDS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE FORECAST. DID ADD MENTION OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE FIRST SURFACE TROUGH. MOISTURE MAY JUST BE ENOUGH
FOR THAT ONLY.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 137 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE CENTRAL REGION SOFTWARE WILL BE USED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. ALSO...ENSEMBLE SPREADS ARE LOW.

THERE WAS GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH EARLIER MODEL
RUNS. CONGRUENCE ABOUT NEXT WEEK IS A NEWER DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE
FACT MOST GUIDANCE HEADED TO THE SAME SOLUTION STRONGLY SUPPORTS
IT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 030300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

TWEAKED THE TIMING OF TEMPO THUNDER GROUPS AT KLAF AND KHUF TO
BETTER MATCH RADAR TRENDS AT 3-4Z AND COMPLETELY REMOVED EXPLICIT
THUNDER MENTION FROM KIND WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER OCCURRING
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. LEFT A VCTS IN AT KIND WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES STILL POSSIBLE AROUND THE AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS TO START AT THE SITES THIS
EVENING WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. EXPECT TO SEE
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS FROM 0 TO 4Z AHEAD OF AN
INITIAL COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 4Z TO 8Z WITH
TIMING BASED ON HI RES MODELS. CONDITIONS IN THE RAIN AND STORMS
WILL MAINLY BE MVFR BUT COULD SEE POCKETS OF IFR OR LOWER BRIEFLY
WITHIN HEAVY RAIN. A LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
50+KT WINDS OUT OF THE SSW ABOVE 2000 FT CAUSING A SHEAR LAYER ALOFT
WHILE GUSTS OF 25-40 KTS CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND MORE
WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE SHOW A DRY INTRUSION
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER AND POSSIBLY CLEAR LATE
TONIGHT PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS. WRAPAROUND FROM THE LOW SHOULD
DEVELOP BETWEEN 15-18Z WEDNESDAY HOWEVER AND CEILINGS SHOULD
RETURN TO LOW END MVFR.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 030231
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
930 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. COOLER...BUT GENERALLY STILL NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES RETURN INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL BRING LOW SNOW CHANCES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

WARM FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY NORTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 60
DEGREE TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN INDIANA. PRESSURE FALLS ARE CENTERED
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AT THE MOMENT...SO EXPECT THE WARM AIR TO
SURGE NORTHEAST. EXACTLY HOW WARM STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT IT
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP FOR
MORE THUNDERSTORMS.

STRONG WIND FIELDS ALREADY EXISTS...WITH KIND VAD WIND PROFILE
HAVING ALREADY DETECTED 50KT AT 925MB. AN UPPER JET WILL ALSO MOVE
IN LATER. WITH INSTABILITY...WIND SHEAR...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE
STILL EXPECT A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

SHORT RANGE HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS MOST COVERAGE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. WITH
THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT FEEL THAT THIS AREA COULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN AS WELL...WITH OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE.

GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE WENT CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT...WITH
NEAR 100 POPS SOUTHEAST HALF. BASED ON LATEST TIMING HAVE SLOWED
EXIT OF RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. WILL KEEP SEVERE MENTION THIS EVENING
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
FALL OVERNIGHT. WILL USE A BLEND OF MODELS TO CAPTURE THIS TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

DURING THE SHORT TERM...A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS AND WEAK UPPER
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF STATES.

THUS FEEL ODDS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE FORECAST. DID ADD MENTION OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE FIRST SURFACE TROUGH. MOISTURE MAY JUST BE ENOUGH
FOR THAT ONLY.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 137 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE CENTRAL REGION SOFTWARE WILL BE USED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. ALSO...ENSEMBLE SPREADS ARE LOW.

THERE WAS GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH EARLIER MODEL
RUNS. CONGRUENCE ABOUT NEXT WEEK IS A NEWER DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE
FACT MOST GUIDANCE HEADED TO THE SAME SOLUTION STRONGLY SUPPORTS
IT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 030300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

TWEAKED THE TIMING OF TEMPO THUNDER GROUPS AT KLAF AND KHUF TO
BETTER MATCH RADAR TRENDS AT 3-4Z AND COMPLETELY REMOVED EXPLICIT
THUNDER MENTION FROM KIND WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER OCCURRING
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. LEFT A VCTS IN AT KIND WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES STILL POSSIBLE AROUND THE AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS TO START AT THE SITES THIS
EVENING WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. EXPECT TO SEE
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS FROM 0 TO 4Z AHEAD OF AN
INITIAL COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 4Z TO 8Z WITH
TIMING BASED ON HI RES MODELS. CONDITIONS IN THE RAIN AND STORMS
WILL MAINLY BE MVFR BUT COULD SEE POCKETS OF IFR OR LOWER BRIEFLY
WITHIN HEAVY RAIN. A LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
50+KT WINDS OUT OF THE SSW ABOVE 2000 FT CAUSING A SHEAR LAYER ALOFT
WHILE GUSTS OF 25-40 KTS CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND MORE
WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE SHOW A DRY INTRUSION
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER AND POSSIBLY CLEAR LATE
TONIGHT PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS. WRAPAROUND FROM THE LOW SHOULD
DEVELOP BETWEEN 15-18Z WEDNESDAY HOWEVER AND CEILINGS SHOULD
RETURN TO LOW END MVFR.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 022243
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
543 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. COOLER...BUT GENERALLY STILL NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES RETURN INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL BRING LOW SNOW CHANCES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

WARM FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY NORTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 60
DEGREE TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN INDIANA. PRESSURE FALLS ARE CENTERED
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AT THE MOMENT...SO EXPECT THE WARM AIR TO
SURGE NORTHEAST. EXACTLY HOW WARM STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT IT
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP FOR
MORE THUNDERSTORMS.

STRONG WIND FIELDS ALREADY EXISTS...WITH KIND VAD WIND PROFILE
HAVING ALREADY DETECTED 50KT AT 925MB. AN UPPER JET WILL ALSO MOVE
IN LATER. WITH INSTABILITY...WIND SHEAR...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE
STILL EXPECT A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

SHORT RANGE HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS MOST COVERAGE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. WITH
THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT FEEL THAT THIS AREA COULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN AS WELL...WITH OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE.

GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE WENT CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT...WITH
NEAR 100 POPS SOUTHEAST HALF. BASED ON LATEST TIMING HAVE SLOWED
EXIT OF RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. WILL KEEP SEVERE MENTION THIS EVENING
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
FALL OVERNIGHT. WILL USE A BLEND OF MODELS TO CAPTURE THIS TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

DURING THE SHORT TERM...A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS AND WEAK UPPER
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF STATES.

THUS FEEL ODDS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE FORECAST. DID ADD MENTION OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE FIRST SURFACE TROUGH. MOISTURE MAY JUST BE ENOUGH
FOR THAT ONLY.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 137 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE CENTRAL REGION SOFTWARE WILL BE USED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. ALSO...ENSEMBLE SPREADS ARE LOW.

THERE WAS GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH EARLIER MODEL
RUNS. CONGRUENCE ABOUT NEXT WEEK IS A NEWER DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE
FACT MOST GUIDANCE HEADED TO THE SAME SOLUTION STRONGLY SUPPORTS
IT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 030000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 525 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS TO START AT THE SITES THIS
EVENING WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. EXPECT TO
SEE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS FROM 0 TO 4Z AHEAD
OF AN INITIAL COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 4Z TO
8Z WITH TIMING BASED ON HI RES MODELS. CONDITIONS IN THE RAIN AND
STORMS WILL MAINLY BE MVFR BUT COULD SEE POCKETS OF IFR OR LOWER
BRIEFLY WITHIN HEAVY RAIN. A LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP 50+KT WINDS OUT OF THE SSW ABOVE 2000 FT CAUSING A SHEAR
LAYER ALOFT WHILE GUSTS OF 25-40 KTS CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND MORE
WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE SHOW A DRY INTRUSION
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER AND POSSIBLY CLEAR LATE
TONIGHT PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS. WRAPAROUND FROM THE LOW SHOULD
DEVELOP BETWEEN 15-18Z WEDNESDAY HOWEVER AND CEILINGS SHOULD
RETURN TO LOW END MVFR.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...CP





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities