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000
FXUS63 KIND 010151
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
952 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL INVADE CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGING A KILLING FREEZE TO THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA THIS
EVENING AND RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA...OTHERWISE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING. IN ADDITION TO
THE COLD...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY RESULTING IN LITTLE CLOUD COVER BUT CONTINUED WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MONDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO CLOSE TO
NORMAL AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THERE
WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 952 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS AND WILL
DIMINISH ELSEWHERE NEXT FEW HOURS.  COULD SEE A DUSTING ON GRASSY
AREAS. OTHERWISE...NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. WILL DOWNPLAY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW A LITTLE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST DUE TO RECENT RADAR
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER
CHANGES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

PORTION OF PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
REGARDING TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ALL NIGHT
BASED ON MESOSCALE MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH EVENING GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND
OVERNIGHT GUSTS TO 25 MPH. WITH SUCH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...PREFER COLDER 12Z GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH MAYBE NOT QUITE AS
COLD WITH WINDS STAYING UP. THIS BLEND WOULD RESULT IN A HARD FREEZE
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THERE IS EVEN A SMALL
CHANCE WE COULD BREAK THE NOVEMBER 1 RECORD LOW OF 24 DEGREES.
TRICK OR TREAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE 30S WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...MODEL
RH TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING THE COLUMN DRYING ON SATURDAY MORNING
WITH ONLY SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ON SUNDAY AS CIRRUS
IS EXPECTED TO SPILL OVER TOP A SHARP MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT. SHOULD ALSO SEE INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

MOS TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM WITH MODERATING
TRENDS LOOKING GOOD. SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER HARD FREEZE IS IN STORE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ONLY BE SIGNIFICANT IN UNLIKELY EVENT THAT WE DO NOT SEE A HARD
FREEZE TONIGHT. THEN...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE AND BECOME NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ON TAP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY...THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION
WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LONG
TERM...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST IT EXITS THE AREA. ALSO...00Z
ECMWF AND 12Z DIFFER EXTENSIVELY ON HOW AN UPPER LOW IS HANDLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST USA. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN LONG TERM.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST
DURING THAT TIME. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK SO WENT DRY THEN.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD...BUT THEY WILL COOL DOWN BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT TAF SITES INTO TONIGHT...RESULTING
IN MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIP THROUGH SAT 06Z. PRECIP WILL TAPER
OFF AFTER SAT 06Z...BUT THE MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER THAT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREVAILING FLIGHT
CATEGORY BY SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 13 TO 16 KTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THEY
WILL TAPER OFF TO 5 TO 10 KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN
NORTHWESTERLY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/JH
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 312331
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
731 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL INVADE CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGING A KILLING FREEZE TO THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA THIS
EVENING AND RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA...OTHERWISE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING. IN ADDITION TO
THE COLD...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY RESULTING IN LITTLE CLOUD COVER BUT CONTINUED WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MONDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO CLOSE TO
NORMAL AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THERE
WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE ON PRECIPITATION TYPE...COVERAGE AND
TIMING AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS AS A DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AT 00Z SATURDAY BEFORE
QUICKLY MOVING TO THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE BY 06Z SATURDAY.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION...THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS
OF CHANGING OVER TO SNOW PER BUFKIT AS THE NEW FORECAST BEGINS. BY
00Z THIS EVENING...IT SHOULD ALL BE SNOW PER BUFKIT. SOUTHEASTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST SHOULD SEE THE MOST COVERAGE AS THE UPPER LOW
SETTLES ACROSS THAT AREA THIS EVENING. OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL WITH DEEP NORTH
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO 45 KNOTS. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD JUST
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACK END OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD GO ON ALL TIL 06Z OR SO
UNTIL MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS.
OTHERWISE...THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOULD BE OVER AROUND MIDNIGHT. DO
NOT SEE ANY THREAT FOR ACCUMULATION WITH ROAD TEMPERATURES STILL IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ALL NIGHT
BASED ON MESOSCALE MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH EVENING GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND
OVERNIGHT GUSTS TO 25 MPH. WITH SUCH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...PREFER COLDER 12Z GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH MAYBE NOT QUITE AS
COLD WITH WINDS STAYING UP. THIS BLEND WOULD RESULT IN A HARD FREEZE
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THERE IS EVEN A SMALL
CHANCE WE COULD BREAK THE NOVEMBER 1 RECORD LOW OF 24 DEGREES.
TRICK OR TREAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE 30S WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...MODEL
RH TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING THE COLUMN DRYING ON SATURDAY MORNING
WITH ONLY SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ON SUNDAY AS CIRRUS
IS EXPECTED TO SPILL OVER TOP A SHARP MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT. SHOULD ALSO SEE INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

MOS TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM WITH MODERATING
TRENDS LOOKING GOOD. SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER HARD FREEZE IS IN STORE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ONLY BE SIGNIFICANT IN UNLIKELY EVENT THAT WE DO NOT SEE A HARD
FREEZE TONIGHT. THEN...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE AND BECOME NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ON TAP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY...THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION
WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LONG
TERM...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST IT EXITS THE AREA. ALSO...00Z
ECMWF AND 12Z DIFFER EXTENSIVELY ON HOW AN UPPER LOW IS HANDLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST USA. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN LONG TERM.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST
DURING THAT TIME. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK SO WENT DRY THEN.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD...BUT THEY WILL COOL DOWN BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT TAF SITES INTO TONIGHT...RESULTING
IN MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIP THROUGH SAT 06Z. PRECIP WILL TAPER
OFF AFTER SAT 06Z...BUT THE MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER THAT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREVAILING FLIGHT
CATEGORY BY SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 13 TO 16 KTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THEY
WILL TAPER OFF TO 5 TO 10 KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN
NORTHWESTERLY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 312016
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
416 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL INVADE CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGING A KILLING FREEZE TO THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA THIS
EVENING AND RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA...OTHERWISE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING. IN ADDITION TO
THE COLD...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY RESULTING IN LITTLE CLOUD COVER BUT CONTINUED WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MONDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO CLOSE TO
NORMAL AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THERE
WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE ON PRECIPITATION TYPE...COVERAGE AND
TIMING AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS AS A DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AT 00Z SATURDAY BEFORE
QUICKLY MOVING TO THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE BY 06Z SATURDAY.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION...THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS
OF CHANGING OVER TO SNOW PER BUFKIT AS THE NEW FORECAST BEGINS. BY
00Z THIS EVENING...IT SHOULD ALL BE SNOW PER BUFKIT. SOUTHEASTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST SHOULD SEE THE MOST COVERAGE AS THE UPPER LOW
SETTLES ACROSS THAT AREA THIS EVENING. OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL WITH DEEP NORTH
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO 45 KNOTS. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD JUST
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACK END OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD GO ON ALL TIL 06Z OR SO
UNTIL MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS.
OTHERWISE...THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOULD BE OVER AROUND MIDNIGHT. DO
NOT SEE ANY THREAT FOR ACCUMULATION WITH ROAD TEMPERATURES STILL IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ALL NIGHT
BASED ON MESOSCALE MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH EVENING GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND
OVERNIGHT GUSTS TO 25 MPH. WITH SUCH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...PREFER COLDER 12Z GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH MAYBE NOT QUITE AS
COLD WITH WINDS STAYING UP. THIS BLEND WOULD RESULT IN A HARD FREEZE
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THERE IS EVEN A SMALL
CHANCE WE COULD BREAK THE NOVEMBER 1 RECORD LOW OF 24 DEGREES.
TRICK OR TREAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE 30S WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...MODEL
RH TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING THE COLUMN DRYING ON SATURDAY MORNING
WITH ONLY SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ON SUNDAY AS CIRRUS
IS EXPECTED TO SPILL OVER TOP A SHARP MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT. SHOULD ALSO SEE INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

MOS TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM WITH MODERATING
TRENDS LOOKING GOOD. SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER HARD FREEZE IS IN STORE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ONLY BE SIGNIFICANT IN UNLIKELY EVENT THAT WE DO NOT SEE A HARD
FREEZE TONIGHT. THEN...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE AND BECOME NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ON TAP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY...THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION
WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LONG
TERM...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST IT EXITS THE AREA. ALSO...00Z
ECMWF AND 12Z DIFFER EXTENSIVELY ON HOW AN UPPER LOW IS HANDLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST USA. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN LONG TERM.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST
DURING THAT TIME. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK SO WENT DRY THEN.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD...BUT THEY WILL COOL DOWN BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/2100Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

UPDATE...
MVFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH VFR FOR
SECOND HALF. GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS BEFORE
06Z.

SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE AS THIS PASSES WITH GUSTS OVER 30KT COMMON.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL...SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD MIX IN AT ALL SITES.

HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN MAY IMPACT KLAF AND REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO IFR BRIEFLY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE
TAF AT THIS TIME.

AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR. AM
GOING PESSIMISTIC IN KEEPING CLOUD COVER IN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
MODELS MAY CLEAR THINGS OUT TOO FAST.

SATURDAY WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 311852
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
252 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL INVADE CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGING A KILLING FREEZE TO THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA THIS
EVENING AND RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA...OTHERWISE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING. IN ADDITION TO
THE COLD...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY RESULTING IN LITTLE CLOUD COVER BUT CONTINUED WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MONDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO CLOSE TO
NORMAL AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THERE
WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE ON PRECIPITATION TYPE...COVERAGE AND
TIMING AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS AS A DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AT 00Z SATURDAY BEFORE
QUICKLY MOVING TO THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE BY 06Z SATURDAY.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION...THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS
OF CHANGING OVER TO SNOW PER BUFKIT AS THE NEW FORECAST BEGINS. BY
00Z THIS EVENING...IT SHOULD ALL BE SNOW PER BUFKIT. SOUTHEASTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST SHOULD SEE THE MOST COVERAGE AS THE UPPER LOW
SETTLES ACROSS THAT AREA THIS EVENING. OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL WITH DEEP NORTH
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO 45 KNOTS. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD JUST
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACK END OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD GO ON ALL TIL 06Z OR SO
UNTIL MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS.
OTHERWISE...THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOULD BE OVER AROUND MIDNIGHT. DO
NOT SEE ANY THREAT FOR ACCUMULATION WITH ROAD TEMPERATURES STILL IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ALL NIGHT
BASED ON MESOSCALE MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH EVENING GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND
OVERNIGHT GUSTS TO 25 MPH. WITH SUCH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...PREFER COLDER 12Z GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH MAYBE NOT QUITE AS
COLD WITH WINDS STAYING UP. THIS BLEND WOULD RESULT IN A HARD FREEZE
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THERE IS EVEN A SMALL
CHANCE WE COULD BREAK THE NOVEMBER 1 RECORD LOW OF 24 DEGREES.
TRICK OR TREAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE 30S WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...MODEL
RH TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING THE COLUMN DRYING ON SATURDAY MORNING
WITH ONLY SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ON SUNDAY AS CIRRUS
IS EXPECTED TO SPILL OVER TOP A SHARP MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT. SHOULD ALSO SEE INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

MOS TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM WITH MODERATING
TRENDS LOOKING GOOD. SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER HARD FREEZE IS IN STORE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ONLY BE SIGNIFICANT IN UNLIKELY EVENT THAT WE DO NOT SEE A HARD
FREEZE TONIGHT. THEN...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE AND BECOME NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ON TAP.

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY...THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION
WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LONG
TERM...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST IT EXITS THE AREA. ALSO...00Z
ECMWF AND 12Z DIFFER EXTENSIVELY ON HOW AN UPPER LOW IS HANDLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST USA. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN LONG TERM.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST
DURING THAT TIME. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK SO WENT DRY THEN.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD...BUT THEY WILL COOL DOWN BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH VFR FOR
SECOND HALF. GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS BEFORE
06Z.

SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE AS THIS PASSES WITH GUSTS OVER 30KT COMMON.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL...SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD MIX IN AT ALL SITES.

HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN MAY IMPACT KLAF AND REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO IFR BRIEFLY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE
TAF AT THIS TIME.

AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR. AM
GOING PESSIMISTIC IN KEEPING CLOUD COVER IN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
MODELS MAY CLEAR THINGS OUT TOO FAST.

SATURDAY WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 311827
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
227 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA FOR TONIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND EVEN A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING. BY SATURDAY MORNING...CENTRAL INDIANA WILL HAVE HAD A
KILLING FREEZE.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE...HOWEVER ANOTHER
APPROACHING COOL FRONT WILL RESULT IN MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 1152 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SPEED UP THE MIX WITH SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AS
MONTICELLO WAS NOW REPORTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THERE.
OTHERWISE...LOWERED INITIAL TEMPERATURES PER OBSERVATIONS. UPDATED
THE GRIDS AS WELL AS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO REFLECT THIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A POORLY DEFINED YET STRONG COLD
FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN...EASTERN
ILLINOIS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. STRONG AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. MUCH COLDER AIR
WAS FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S AND LOW
40S ACROSS WISCONSIN...IOWA AND MINNESOTA. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR
SHOWED A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A DEEP BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST. RADAR SHOWS A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH
A FEW MORE VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO START
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TOWARD -6C BY 00Z
SAT. GIVEN THIS WE WILL EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WILL AIM FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR
TODAY OCCURRING AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FURTHERMORE THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDING ACROSS THE WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND 30 THIS
AFTERNOON AND IN THE MIDDLE 20S TONIGHT.

AS FOR PRECIP...LIMITED MOISTURE APPEARS IN PLACE WITH TODAY/S
SYSTEM...HOWEVER STRONG FORCING AND DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES. BEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PASSING NEAR FRONTAL
PASSAGE AROUND 12Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO DRY OUT LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHERLY FLOW RESUMES. HOWEVER BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR 00Z A SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE MODELS SUGGEST THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BY
00Z...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION IN THE LOWER AND MID
LEVELS...ALL WHILE AN 850MB JET OF 50+ KNOTS SCREAMS ALOFT.
FURTHERMORE BY 00Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
COLUMN BELOW 0C...GIVING US A SNOW PROFILE.

STILL...MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED AS THESE TWO FORCING MECHANISMS
PASS...THUS WILL TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS THAN MAVMOS BUT
EXPECTING LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ACTIVE WEATHER ONGOING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PASSING THROUGH INDIANA AT 00Z BEFORE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. AGAIN...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR
PRECIP DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REMAIN SATURATED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z...BEFORE DRYING
OUT RAPIDLY AS THE UPPER LOW AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT DEPART
QUICKLY. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT
STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP. WARM
GROUND SHOULD RESULT IN ANY SNOW MELTING UPON REACHING THE
GROUND. THUS WILL TREND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS POPS FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE DROPPING POPS OFF QUICKLY BY 06Z AS THE
FORCING MECHANISM EXITS.

EVENING HOURS WILL BE BLUSTERY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS OR ICE PELLETS
POSSIBLE AMID WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH PRODUCING WIND CHILLS TO
NEAR 25 DEGREES. FOLKS WHO WILL BE OUTSIDE THIS EVENING WILL GET A
TASTE OF EARLY WINTER...AND WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO ADDRESS THIS.

AS FOR LOWS...GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...THE FREEZE
WARNING REMAINS A GOOD BET...WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED BY 12Z SAT.

DRY WEATHER WILL THEN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTS THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
PUSH EAST AND BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN THE OHIO
VALLEY BY MONDAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER INDIANA BY 18Z MONDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH THIS PERIOD SHOW A DRY COLUMN WITH
UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. THUS
WILL TREND TOWARD MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT DURING
THIS PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS COOLER
THAN MAVMOS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BY SUNDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AMID SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. WILL
STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS LOWS AND HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY...THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION
WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LONG
TERM...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST IT EXITS THE AREA. ALSO...00Z
ECMWF AND 12Z DIFFER EXTENSIVELY ON HOW AN UPPER LOW IS HANDLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST USA. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN LONG TERM.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST
DURING THAT TIME. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK SO WENT DRY THEN.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD...BUT THEY WILL COOL DOWN BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH VFR FOR
SECOND HALF. GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS BEFORE
06Z.

SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE AS THIS PASSES WITH GUSTS OVER 30KT COMMON.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL...SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD MIX IN AT ALL SITES.

HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN MAY IMPACT KLAF AND REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO IFR BRIEFLY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE
TAF AT THIS TIME.

AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR. AM
GOING PESSIMISTIC IN KEEPING CLOUD COVER IN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
MODELS MAY CLEAR THINGS OUT TOO FAST.

SATURDAY WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 311655
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1255 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA FOR TONIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND EVEN A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING. BY SATURDAY MORNING...CENTRAL INDIANA WILL HAVE HAD A
KILLING FREEZE.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE...HOWEVER ANOTHER
APPROACHING COOL FRONT WILL RESULT IN MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 1152 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SPEED UP THE MIX WITH SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AS
MONTICELLO WAS NOW REPORTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THERE.
OTHERWISE...LOWERED INITIAL TEMPERATURES PER OBSERVATIONS. UPDATED
THE GRIDS AS WELL AS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO REFLECT THIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A POORLY DEFINED YET STRONG COLD
FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN...EASTERN
ILLINOIS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. STRONG AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. MUCH COLDER AIR
WAS FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S AND LOW
40S ACROSS WISCONSIN...IOWA AND MINNESOTA. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR
SHOWED A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A DEEP BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST. RADAR SHOWS A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH
A FEW MORE VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO START
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TOWARD -6C BY 00Z
SAT. GIVEN THIS WE WILL EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WILL AIM FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR
TODAY OCCURRING AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FURTHERMORE THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDING ACROSS THE WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND 30 THIS
AFTERNOON AND IN THE MIDDLE 20S TONIGHT.

AS FOR PRECIP...LIMITED MOISTURE APPEARS IN PLACE WITH TODAY/S
SYSTEM...HOWEVER STRONG FORCING AND DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES. BEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PASSING NEAR FRONTAL
PASSAGE AROUND 12Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO DRY OUT LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHERLY FLOW RESUMES. HOWEVER BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR 00Z A SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE MODELS SUGGEST THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BY
00Z...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION IN THE LOWER AND MID
LEVELS...ALL WHILE AN 850MB JET OF 50+ KNOTS SCREAMS ALOFT.
FURTHERMORE BY 00Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
COLUMN BELOW 0C...GIVING US A SNOW PROFILE.

STILL...MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED AS THESE TWO FORCING MECHANISMS
PASS...THUS WILL TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS THAN MAVMOS BUT
EXPECTING LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ACTIVE WEATHER ONGOING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PASSING THROUGH INDIANA AT 00Z BEFORE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. AGAIN...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR
PRECIP DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REMAIN SATURATED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z...BEFORE DRYING
OUT RAPIDLY AS THE UPPER LOW AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT DEPART
QUICKLY. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT
STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP. WARM
GROUND SHOULD RESULT IN ANY SNOW MELTING UPON REACHING THE
GROUND. THUS WILL TREND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS POPS FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE DROPPING POPS OFF QUICKLY BY 06Z AS THE
FORCING MECHANISM EXITS.

EVENING HOURS WILL BE BLUSTERY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS OR ICE PELLETS
POSSIBLE AMID WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH PRODUCING WIND CHILLS TO
NEAR 25 DEGREES. FOLKS WHO WILL BE OUTSIDE THIS EVENING WILL GET A
TASTE OF EARLY WINTER...AND WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO ADDRESS THIS.

AS FOR LOWS...GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...THE FREEZE
WARNING REMAINS A GOOD BET...WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED BY 12Z SAT.

DRY WEATHER WILL THEN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTS THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
PUSH EAST AND BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN THE OHIO
VALLEY BY MONDAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER INDIANA BY 18Z MONDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH THIS PERIOD SHOW A DRY COLUMN WITH
UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. THUS
WILL TREND TOWARD MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT DURING
THIS PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS COOLER
THAN MAVMOS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BY SUNDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AMID SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. WILL
STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS LOWS AND HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH WILL AFFECT
THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS TO
HOW FAST THE NEXT TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH...WITH SOME OF THE SLOWER
MEMBERS SUGGESTING THE TROUGH WILL NOT PASS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL GO WITH POPS FOR RAIN STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE BEST PRECIPITATION
THREAT WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH VFR FOR
SECOND HALF. GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS BEFORE
06Z.

SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE AS THIS PASSES WITH GUSTS OVER 30KT COMMON.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL...SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD MIX IN AT ALL SITES.

HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN MAY IMPACT KLAF AND REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO IFR BRIEFLY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE
TAF AT THIS TIME.

AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR. AM
GOING PESSIMISTIC IN KEEPING CLOUD COVER IN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
MODELS MAY CLEAR THINGS OUT TOO FAST.

SATURDAY WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 311655
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1255 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA FOR TONIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND EVEN A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING. BY SATURDAY MORNING...CENTRAL INDIANA WILL HAVE HAD A
KILLING FREEZE.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE...HOWEVER ANOTHER
APPROACHING COOL FRONT WILL RESULT IN MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 1152 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SPEED UP THE MIX WITH SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AS
MONTICELLO WAS NOW REPORTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THERE.
OTHERWISE...LOWERED INITIAL TEMPERATURES PER OBSERVATIONS. UPDATED
THE GRIDS AS WELL AS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO REFLECT THIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A POORLY DEFINED YET STRONG COLD
FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN...EASTERN
ILLINOIS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. STRONG AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. MUCH COLDER AIR
WAS FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S AND LOW
40S ACROSS WISCONSIN...IOWA AND MINNESOTA. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR
SHOWED A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A DEEP BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST. RADAR SHOWS A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH
A FEW MORE VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO START
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TOWARD -6C BY 00Z
SAT. GIVEN THIS WE WILL EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WILL AIM FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR
TODAY OCCURRING AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FURTHERMORE THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDING ACROSS THE WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND 30 THIS
AFTERNOON AND IN THE MIDDLE 20S TONIGHT.

AS FOR PRECIP...LIMITED MOISTURE APPEARS IN PLACE WITH TODAY/S
SYSTEM...HOWEVER STRONG FORCING AND DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES. BEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PASSING NEAR FRONTAL
PASSAGE AROUND 12Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO DRY OUT LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHERLY FLOW RESUMES. HOWEVER BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR 00Z A SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE MODELS SUGGEST THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BY
00Z...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION IN THE LOWER AND MID
LEVELS...ALL WHILE AN 850MB JET OF 50+ KNOTS SCREAMS ALOFT.
FURTHERMORE BY 00Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
COLUMN BELOW 0C...GIVING US A SNOW PROFILE.

STILL...MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED AS THESE TWO FORCING MECHANISMS
PASS...THUS WILL TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS THAN MAVMOS BUT
EXPECTING LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ACTIVE WEATHER ONGOING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PASSING THROUGH INDIANA AT 00Z BEFORE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. AGAIN...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR
PRECIP DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REMAIN SATURATED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z...BEFORE DRYING
OUT RAPIDLY AS THE UPPER LOW AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT DEPART
QUICKLY. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT
STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP. WARM
GROUND SHOULD RESULT IN ANY SNOW MELTING UPON REACHING THE
GROUND. THUS WILL TREND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS POPS FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE DROPPING POPS OFF QUICKLY BY 06Z AS THE
FORCING MECHANISM EXITS.

EVENING HOURS WILL BE BLUSTERY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS OR ICE PELLETS
POSSIBLE AMID WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH PRODUCING WIND CHILLS TO
NEAR 25 DEGREES. FOLKS WHO WILL BE OUTSIDE THIS EVENING WILL GET A
TASTE OF EARLY WINTER...AND WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO ADDRESS THIS.

AS FOR LOWS...GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...THE FREEZE
WARNING REMAINS A GOOD BET...WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED BY 12Z SAT.

DRY WEATHER WILL THEN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTS THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
PUSH EAST AND BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN THE OHIO
VALLEY BY MONDAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER INDIANA BY 18Z MONDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH THIS PERIOD SHOW A DRY COLUMN WITH
UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. THUS
WILL TREND TOWARD MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT DURING
THIS PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS COOLER
THAN MAVMOS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BY SUNDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AMID SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. WILL
STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS LOWS AND HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH WILL AFFECT
THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS TO
HOW FAST THE NEXT TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH...WITH SOME OF THE SLOWER
MEMBERS SUGGESTING THE TROUGH WILL NOT PASS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL GO WITH POPS FOR RAIN STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE BEST PRECIPITATION
THREAT WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH VFR FOR
SECOND HALF. GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS BEFORE
06Z.

SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE AS THIS PASSES WITH GUSTS OVER 30KT COMMON.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL...SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD MIX IN AT ALL SITES.

HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN MAY IMPACT KLAF AND REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO IFR BRIEFLY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE
TAF AT THIS TIME.

AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR. AM
GOING PESSIMISTIC IN KEEPING CLOUD COVER IN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
MODELS MAY CLEAR THINGS OUT TOO FAST.

SATURDAY WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 311552
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1152 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA FOR TONIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND EVEN A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING. BY SATURDAY MORNING...CENTRAL INDIANA WILL HAVE HAD A
KILLING FREEZE.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE...HOWEVER ANOTHER
APPROACHING COOL FRONT WILL RESULT IN MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 1152 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SPEED UP THE MIX WITH SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AS
MONTICELLO WAS NOW REPORTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THERE.
OTHERWISE...LOWERED INITIAL TEMPERATURES PER OBSERVATIONS. UPDATED
THE GRIDS AS WELL AS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO REFLECT THIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A POORLY DEFINED YET STRONG COLD
FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN...EASTERN
ILLINOIS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. STRONG AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. MUCH COLDER AIR
WAS FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S AND LOW
40S ACROSS WISCONSIN...IOWA AND MINNESOTA. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR
SHOWED A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A DEEP BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST. RADAR SHOWS A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH
A FEW MORE VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO START
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TOWARD -6C BY 00Z
SAT. GIVEN THIS WE WILL EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WILL AIM FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR
TODAY OCCURRING AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FURTHERMORE THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDING ACROSS THE WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND 30 THIS
AFTERNOON AND IN THE MIDDLE 20S TONIGHT.

AS FOR PRECIP...LIMITED MOISTURE APPEARS IN PLACE WITH TODAY/S
SYSTEM...HOWEVER STRONG FORCING AND DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES. BEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PASSING NEAR FRONTAL
PASSAGE AROUND 12Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO DRY OUT LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHERLY FLOW RESUMES. HOWEVER BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR 00Z A SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE MODELS SUGGEST THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BY
00Z...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION IN THE LOWER AND MID
LEVELS...ALL WHILE AN 850MB JET OF 50+ KNOTS SCREAMS ALOFT.
FURTHERMORE BY 00Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
COLUMN BELOW 0C...GIVING US A SNOW PROFILE.

STILL...MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED AS THESE TWO FORCING MECHANISMS
PASS...THUS WILL TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS THAN MAVMOS BUT
EXPECTING LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ACTIVE WEATHER ONGOING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PASSING THROUGH INDIANA AT 00Z BEFORE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. AGAIN...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR
PRECIP DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REMAIN SATURATED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z...BEFORE DRYING
OUT RAPIDLY AS THE UPPER LOW AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT DEPART
QUICKLY. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT
STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP. WARM
GROUND SHOULD RESULT IN ANY SNOW MELTING UPON REACHING THE
GROUND. THUS WILL TREND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS POPS FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE DROPPING POPS OFF QUICKLY BY 06Z AS THE
FORCING MECHANISM EXITS.

EVENING HOURS WILL BE BLUSTERY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS OR ICE PELLETS
POSSIBLE AMID WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH PRODUCING WIND CHILLS TO
NEAR 25 DEGREES. FOLKS WHO WILL BE OUTSIDE THIS EVENING WILL GET A
TASTE OF EARLY WINTER...AND WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO ADDRESS THIS.

AS FOR LOWS...GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...THE FREEZE
WARNING REMAINS A GOOD BET...WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED BY 12Z SAT.

DRY WEATHER WILL THEN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTS THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
PUSH EAST AND BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN THE OHIO
VALLEY BY MONDAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER INDIANA BY 18Z MONDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH THIS PERIOD SHOW A DRY COLUMN WITH
UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. THUS
WILL TREND TOWARD MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT DURING
THIS PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS COOLER
THAN MAVMOS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BY SUNDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AMID SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. WILL
STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS LOWS AND HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH WILL AFFECT
THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS TO
HOW FAST THE NEXT TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH...WITH SOME OF THE SLOWER
MEMBERS SUGGESTING THE TROUGH WILL NOT PASS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL GO WITH POPS FOR RAIN STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE BEST PRECIPITATION
THREAT WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LARGE AREA OF RAIN IS MOVING STEADILY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
UPDATED TAFS TO INCLUDE TIMING OF THIS RAIN AND THE MVFR CONDITIONS
WITHIN IT. BEHIND THE RAIN CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR
FOR A WHILE...BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO MVFR WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALREADY GUSTING TO NEAR 30KT...AND HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH NORTHWEST INDIANA. SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL BE NEAR KLAF BY ISSUANCE
TIME...REACHING KBMG AROUND 311500Z. SOME LIGHT RAIN...ALONG WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 025 EXPECTED NEAR AND IN THE
POST FRONTAL ZONE. SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP INCREASE IN THE SURFACE
WINDS AS WELL WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WINDS BECOMING 310-330
DEGREES WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. AT THIS
POINT...APPEARS THE BEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES WHERE LIFT
WILL BE BETTER. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ABOVE IFR FOR NOW.

THE CORE OF A 50KT 850MB JET IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION HELPING TO MIX THESE WINDS
DOWN...EXPECTING SOME SURFACE GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE FROM
320-340 DEGREES BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 311420
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA FOR TONIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND EVEN A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING. BY SATURDAY MORNING...CENTRAL INDIANA WILL HAVE HAD A
KILLING FREEZE.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE...HOWEVER ANOTHER
APPROACHING COOL FRONT WILL RESULT IN MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 953 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A POORLY DEFINED YET STRONG COLD
FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN...EASTERN
ILLINOIS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. STRONG AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. MUCH COLDER AIR
WAS FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S AND LOW
40S ACROSS WISCONSIN...IOWA AND MINNESOTA. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR
SHOWED A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A DEEP BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST. RADAR SHOWS A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH
A FEW MORE VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO START
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TOWARD -6C BY 00Z
SAT. GIVEN THIS WE WILL EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WILL AIM FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR
TODAY OCCURRING AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FURTHERMORE THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDING ACROSS THE WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND 30 THIS
AFTERNOON AND IN THE MIDDLE 20S TONIGHT.

AS FOR PRECIP...LIMITED MOISTURE APPEARS IN PLACE WITH TODAY/S
SYSTEM...HOWEVER STRONG FORCING AND DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES. BEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PASSING NEAR FRONTAL
PASSAGE AROUND 12Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO DRY OUT LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHERLY FLOW RESUMES. HOWEVER BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR 00Z A SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE MODELS SUGGEST THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BY
00Z...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION IN THE LOWER AND MID
LEVELS...ALL WHILE AN 850MB JET OF 50+ KNOTS SCREAMS ALOFT.
FURTHERMORE BY 00Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
COLUMN BELOW 0C...GIVING US A SNOW PROFILE.

STILL...MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED AS THESE TWO FORCING MECHANISMS
PASS...THUS WILL TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS THAN MAVMOS BUT
EXPECTING LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ACTIVE WEATHER ONGOING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PASSING THROUGH INDIANA AT 00Z BEFORE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. AGAIN...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR
PRECIP DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REMAIN SATURATED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z...BEFORE DRYING
OUT RAPIDLY AS THE UPPER LOW AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT DEPART
QUICKLY. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT
STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP. WARM
GROUND SHOULD RESULT IN ANY SNOW MELTING UPON REACHING THE
GROUND. THUS WILL TREND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS POPS FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE DROPPING POPS OFF QUICKLY BY 06Z AS THE
FORCING MECHANISM EXITS.

EVENING HOURS WILL BE BLUSTERY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS OR ICE PELLETS
POSSIBLE AMID WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH PRODUCING WIND CHILLS TO
NEAR 25 DEGREES. FOLKS WHO WILL BE OUTSIDE THIS EVENING WILL GET A
TASTE OF EARLY WINTER...AND WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO ADDRESS THIS.

AS FOR LOWS...GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...THE FREEZE
WARNING REMAINS A GOOD BET...WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED BY 12Z SAT.

DRY WEATHER WILL THEN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTS THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
PUSH EAST AND BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN THE OHIO
VALLEY BY MONDAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER INDIANA BY 18Z MONDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH THIS PERIOD SHOW A DRY COLUMN WITH
UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. THUS
WILL TREND TOWARD MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT DURING
THIS PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS COOLER
THAN MAVMOS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BY SUNDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AMID SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. WILL
STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS LOWS AND HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH WILL AFFECT
THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS TO
HOW FAST THE NEXT TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH...WITH SOME OF THE SLOWER
MEMBERS SUGGESTING THE TROUGH WILL NOT PASS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL GO WITH POPS FOR RAIN STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE BEST PRECIPITATION
THREAT WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LARGE AREA OF RAIN IS MOVING STEADILY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
UPDATED TAFS TO INCLUDE TIMING OF THIS RAIN AND THE MVFR CONDITIONS
WITHIN IT. BEHIND THE RAIN CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR
FOR A WHILE...BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO MVFR WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALREADY GUSTING TO NEAR 30KT...AND HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH NORTHWEST INDIANA. SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL BE NEAR KLAF BY ISSUANCE
TIME...REACHING KBMG AROUND 311500Z. SOME LIGHT RAIN...ALONG WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 025 EXPECTED NEAR AND IN THE
POST FRONTAL ZONE. SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP INCREASE IN THE SURFACE
WINDS AS WELL WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WINDS BECOMING 310-330
DEGREES WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. AT THIS
POINT...APPEARS THE BEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES WHERE LIFT
WILL BE BETTER. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ABOVE IFR FOR NOW.

THE CORE OF A 50KT 850MB JET IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION HELPING TO MIX THESE WINDS
DOWN...EXPECTING SOME SURFACE GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE FROM
320-340 DEGREES BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 311353
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
953 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA FOR TONIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND EVEN A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING. BY SATURDAY MORNING...CENTRAL INDIANA WILL HAVE HAD A
KILLING FREEZE.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE...HOWEVER ANOTHER
APPROACHING COOL FRONT WILL RESULT IN MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 953 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A POORLY DEFINED YET STRONG COLD
FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN...EASTERN
ILLINOIS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. STRONG AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. MUCH COLDER AIR
WAS FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S AND LOW
40S ACROSS WISCONSIN...IOWA AND MINNESOTA. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR
SHOWED A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A DEEP BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST. RADAR SHOWS A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH
A FEW MORE VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO START
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TOWARD -6C BY 00Z
SAT. GIVEN THIS WE WILL EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WILL AIM FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR
TODAY OCCURRING AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FURTHERMORE THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDING ACROSS THE WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND 30 THIS
AFTERNOON AND IN THE MIDDLE 20S TONIGHT.

AS FOR PRECIP...LIMITED MOISTURE APPEARS IN PLACE WITH TODAY/S
SYSTEM...HOWEVER STRONG FORCING AND DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES. BEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PASSING NEAR FRONTAL
PASSAGE AROUND 12Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO DRY OUT LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHERLY FLOW RESUMES. HOWEVER BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR 00Z A SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE MODELS SUGGEST THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BY
00Z...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION IN THE LOWER AND MID
LEVELS...ALL WHILE AN 850MB JET OF 50+ KNOTS SCREAMS ALOFT.
FURTHERMORE BY 00Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
COLUMN BELOW 0C...GIVING US A SNOW PROFILE.

STILL...MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED AS THESE TWO FORCING MECHANISMS
PASS...THUS WILL TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS THAN MAVMOS BUT
EXPECTING LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ACTIVE WEATHER ONGOING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PASSING THROUGH INDIANA AT 00Z BEFORE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. AGAIN...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR
PRECIP DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REMAIN SATURATED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z...BEFORE DRYING
OUT RAPIDLY AS THE UPPER LOW AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT DEPART
QUICKLY. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT
STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP. WARM
GROUND SHOULD RESULT IN ANY SNOW MELTING UPON REACHING THE
GROUND. THUS WILL TREND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS POPS FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE DROPPING POPS OFF QUICKLY BY 06Z AS THE
FORCING MECHANISM EXITS.

EVENING HOURS WILL BE BLUSTERY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS OR ICE PELLETS
POSSIBLE AMID WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH PRODUCING WIND CHILLS TO
NEAR 25 DEGREES. FOLKS WHO WILL BE OUTSIDE THIS EVENING WILL GET A
TASTE OF EARLY WINTER...AND WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO ADDRESS THIS.

AS FOR LOWS...GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...THE FREEZE
WARNING REMAINS A GOOD BET...WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED BY 12Z SAT.

DRY WEATHER WILL THEN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTS THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
PUSH EAST AND BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN THE OHIO
VALLEY BY MONDAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER INDIANA BY 18Z MONDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH THIS PERIOD SHOW A DRY COLUMN WITH
UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. THUS
WILL TREND TOWARD MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT DURING
THIS PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS COOLER
THAN MAVMOS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BY SUNDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AMID SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. WILL
STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS LOWS AND HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH WILL AFFECT
THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS TO
HOW FAST THE NEXT TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH...WITH SOME OF THE SLOWER
MEMBERS SUGGESTING THE TROUGH WILL NOT PASS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL GO WITH POPS FOR RAIN STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE BEST PRECIPITATION
THREAT WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 631 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH NORTHWEST INDIANA. SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL BE NEAR KLAF BY ISSUANCE
TIME...REACHING KBMG AROUND 311500Z. SOME LIGHT RAIN...ALONG WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 025 EXPECTED NEAR AND IN THE
POST FRONTAL ZONE. SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP INCREASE IN THE SURFACE
WINDS AS WELL WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WINDS BECOMING 310-330
DEGREES WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. AT THIS
POINT...APPEARS THE BEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES WHERE LIFT
WILL BE BETTER. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ABOVE IFR FOR NOW.

THE CORE OF A 50KT 850MB JET IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION HELPING TO MIX THESE WINDS
DOWN...EXPECTING SOME SURFACE GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE FROM
320-340 DEGREES BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 311033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
631 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA FOR TONIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND EVEN A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING. BY SATURDAY MORNING...CENTRAL INDIANA WILL HAVE HAD A
KILLING FREEZE.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE...HOWEVER ANOTHER
APPROACHING COOL FRONT WILL RESULT IN MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A POORLY DEFINED YET STRONG COLD
FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN...EASTERN
ILLINOIS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. STRONG AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. MUCH COLDER AIR
WAS FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S AND LOW
40S ACROSS WISCONSIN...IOWA AND MINNESOTA. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR
SHOWED A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A DEEP BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST. RADAR SHOWS A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH
A FEW MORE VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO START
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TOWARD -6C BY 00Z
SAT. GIVEN THIS WE WILL EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WILL AIM FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR
TODAY OCCURRING AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FURTHERMORE
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDING ACROSS THE WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND 30 THIS AFTERNOON AND IN
THE MIDDLE 20S TONIGHT.

AS FOR PRECIP...LIMITED MOISTURE APPEARS IN PLACE WITH TODAY/S
SYSTEM...HOWEVER STRONG FORCING AND DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES. BEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PASSING NEAR FRONTAL
PASSAGE AROUND 12Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO DRY OUT LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHERLY FLOW RESUMES. HOWEVER BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR 00Z A SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE MODELS SUGGEST THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BY
00Z...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION IN THE LOWER AND MID
LEVELS...ALL WHILE AN 850MB JET OF 50+ KNOTS SCREAMS ALOFT.
FURTHERMORE BY 00Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
COLUMN BELOW 0C...GIVING US A SNOW PROFILE.

STILL...MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED AS THESE TWO FORCING MECHANISMS
PASS...THUS WILL TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS THAN MAVMOS BUT
EXPECTING LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ACTIVE WEATHER ONGOING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PASSING THROUGH INDIANA AT 00Z BEFORE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. AGAIN...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR
PRECIP DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REMAIN SATURATED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z...BEFORE DRYING
OUT RAPIDLY AS THE UPPER LOW AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT DEPART
QUICKLY. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT
STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP. WARM
GROUND SHOULD RESULT IN ANY SNOW MELTING UPON REACHING THE
GROUND. THUS WILL TREND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS POPS FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE DROPPING POPS OFF QUICKLY BY 06Z AS THE
FORCING MECHANISM EXITS.

EVENING HOURS WILL BE BLUSTERY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS OR ICE PELLETS
POSSIBLE AMID WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH PRODUCING WIND CHILLS TO
NEAR 25 DEGREES. FOLKS WHO WILL BE OUTSIDE THIS EVENING WILL GET A
TASTE OF EARLY WINTER...AND WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO ADDRESS THIS.

AS FOR LOWS...GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...THE FREEZE
WARNING REMAINS A GOOD BET...WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED BY 12Z SAT.

DRY WEATHER WILL THEN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTS THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
PUSH EAST AND BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN THE OHIO
VALLEY BY MONDAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER INDIANA BY 18Z MONDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH THIS PERIOD SHOW A DRY COLUMN WITH
UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. THUS
WILL TREND TOWARD MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT DURING
THIS PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS COOLER
THAN MAVMOS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BY SUNDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AMID SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. WILL
STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS LOWS AND HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH WILL AFFECT
THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS TO
HOW FAST THE NEXT TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH...WITH SOME OF THE SLOWER
MEMBERS SUGGESTING THE TROUGH WILL NOT PASS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL GO WITH POPS FOR RAIN STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE BEST PRECIPITATION
THREAT WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 631 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH NORTHWEST INDIANA. SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL BE NEAR KLAF BY ISSUANCE
TIME...REACHING KBMG AROUND 311500Z. SOME LIGHT RAIN...ALONG WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 025 EXPECTED NEAR AND IN THE
POST FRONTAL ZONE. SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP INCREASE IN THE SURFACE
WINDS AS WELL WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WINDS BECOMING 310-330
DEGREES WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. AT THIS
POINT...APPEARS THE BEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES WHERE LIFT
WILL BE BETTER. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ABOVE IFR FOR NOW.

THE CORE OF A 50KT 850MB JET IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION HELPING TO MIX THESE WINDS
DOWN...EXPECTING SOME SURFACE GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE FROM
320-340 DEGREES BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 310821
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
419 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA FOR TONIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND EVEN A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING. BY SATURDAY MORNING...CENTRAL INDIANA WILL HAVE HAD A
KILLING FREEZE.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE...HOWEVER ANOTHER
APPROACHING COOL FRONT WILL RESULT IN MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A POORLY DEFINED YET STRONG COLD
FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN...EASTERN
ILLINOIS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. STRONG AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. MUCH COLDER AIR
WAS FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S AND LOW
40S ACROSS WISCONSIN...IOWA AND MINNESOTA. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR
SHOWED A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A DEEP BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST. RADAR SHOWS A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH
A FEW MORE VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO START
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TOWARD -6C BY 00Z
SAT. GIVEN THIS WE WILL EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WILL AIM FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR
TODAY OCCURRING AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FURTHERMORE
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDING ACROSS THE WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND 30 THIS AFTERNOON AND IN
THE MIDDLE 20S TONIGHT.

AS FOR PRECIP...LIMITED MOISTURE APPEARS IN PLACE WITH TODAY/S
SYSTEM...HOWEVER STRONG FORCING AND DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES. BEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PASSING NEAR FRONTAL
PASSAGE AROUND 12Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO DRY OUT LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHERLY FLOW RESUMES. HOWEVER BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR 00Z A SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE MODELS SUGGEST THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BY
00Z...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION IN THE LOWER AND MID
LEVELS...ALL WHILE AN 850MB JET OF 50+ KNOTS SCREAMS ALOFT.
FURTHERMORE BY 00Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
COLUMN BELOW 0C...GIVING US A SNOW PROFILE.

STILL...MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED AS THESE TWO FORCING MECHANISMS
PASS...THUS WILL TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS THAN MAVMOS BUT
EXPECTING LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ACTIVE WEATHER ONGOING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PASSING THROUGH INDIANA AT 00Z BEFORE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. AGAIN...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR
PRECIP DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REMAIN SATURATED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z...BEFORE DRYING
OUT RAPIDLY AS THE UPPER LOW AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT DEPART
QUICKLY. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT
STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP. WARM
GROUND SHOULD RESULT IN ANY SNOW MELTING UPON REACHING THE
GROUND. THUS WILL TREND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS POPS FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE DROPPING POPS OFF QUICKLY BY 06Z AS THE
FORCING MECHANISM EXITS.

EVENING HOURS WILL BE BLUSTERY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS OR ICE PELLETS
POSSIBLE AMID WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH PRODUCING WIND CHILLS TO
NEAR 25 DEGREES. FOLKS WHO WILL BE OUTSIDE THIS EVENING WILL GET A
TASTE OF EARLY WINTER...AND WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO ADDRESS THIS.

AS FOR LOWS...GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...THE FREEZE
WARNING REMAINS A GOOD BET...WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED BY 12Z SAT.

DRY WEATHER WILL THEN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTS THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
PUSH EAST AND BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN THE OHIO
VALLEY BY MONDAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER INDIANA BY 18Z MONDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH THIS PERIOD SHOW A DRY COLUMN WITH
UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. THUS
WILL TREND TOWARD MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT DURING
THIS PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS COOLER
THAN MAVMOS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BY SUNDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AMID SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. WILL
STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS LOWS AND HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH WILL AFFECT
THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS TO
HOW FAST THE NEXT TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH...WITH SOME OF THE SLOWER
MEMBERS SUGGESTING THE TROUGH WILL NOT PASS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL GO WITH POPS FOR RAIN STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE BEST PRECIPITATION
THREAT WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 310900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH KIND AFTER SUNRISE...AROUND 311400Z-311500Z. APPEARS
THERE WILL A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS WELL
AS THE ARRIVAL OF LOWER MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 025. WILL MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THESE CONDITIONS ON THE UPDATES BASED
ON THIS THINKING.

SHOULD BE SOME SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS FROM 310-330 DEGREES
BY LATE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO TAF SITES
TONIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT VFR CATEGORY. THIS WILL
CHANGE THIS MORNING THOUGH WHEN A STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS
INDIANA AND CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY. IN
ADDITION...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT SITES FOR MOST OF
TODAY.  SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 14 TO 17 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KTS. A FEW FLURRIES COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS BY THIS
EVENING...KEEPING CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE MVFR/VFR MARK THROUGH THE
END OF TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...TDUD/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 310622
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
222 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA FOR TONIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND EVEN A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING. BY SATURDAY MORNING...CENTRAL INDIANA WILL HAVE HAD A
KILLING FREEZE.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE...HOWEVER ANOTHER
APPROACHING COOL FRONT WILL RESULT IN MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A POORLY DEFINED YET STRONG COLD
FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN...EASTERN
ILLINOIS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. STRONG AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. MUCH COLDER AIR
WAS FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S AND LOW
40S ACROSS WISCONSIN...IOWA AND MINNESOTA. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR
SHOWED A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A DEEP BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST. RADAR SHOWS A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH
A FEW MORE VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO START
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TOWARD -6C BY 00Z
SAT. GIVEN THIS WE WILL EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WILL AIM FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR
TODAY OCCURRING AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FURTHERMORE
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDING ACROSS THE WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND 30 THIS AFTERNOON AND IN
THE MIDDLE 20S TONIGHT.

AS FOR PRECIP...LIMITED MOISTURE APPEARS IN PLACE WITH TODAY/S
SYSTEM...HOWEVER STRONG FORCING AND DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES. BEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PASSING NEAR FRONTAL
PASSAGE AROUND 12Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO DRY OUT LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHERLY FLOW RESUMES. HOWEVER BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR 00Z A SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE MODELS SUGGEST THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BY
00Z...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION IN THE LOWER AND MID
LEVELS...ALL WHILE AN 850MB JET OF 50+ KNOTS SCREAMS ALOFT.
FURTHERMORE BY 00Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
COLUMN BELOW 0C...GIVING US A SNOW PROFILE.

STILL...MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED AS THESE TWO FORCING MECHANISMS
PASS...THUS WILL TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS THAN MAVMOS BUT
EXPECTING LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ACTIVE WEATHER ONGOING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PASSING THROUGH INDIANA AT 00Z BEFORE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. AGAIN...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR
PRECIP DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REMAIN SATURATED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z...BEFORE DRYING
OUT RAPIDLY AS THE UPPER LOW AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT DEPART
QUICKLY. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT
STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP. WARM
GROUND SHOULD RESULT IN ANY SNOW MELTING UPON REACHING THE
GROUND. THUS WILL TREND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS POPS FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE DROPPING POPS OFF QUICKLY BY 06Z AS THE
FORCING MECHANISM EXITS.

EVENING HOURS WILL BE BLUSTERY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS OR ICE PELLETS
POSSIBLE AMID WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH PRODUCING WIND CHILLS TO
NEAR 25 DEGREES. FOLKS WHO WILL BE OUTSIDE THIS EVENING WILL GET A
TASTE OF EARLY WINTER...AND WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO ADDRESS THIS.

AS FOR LOWS...GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...THE FREEZE
WARNING REMAINS A GOOD BET...WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED BY 12Z SAT.

DRY WEATHER WILL THEN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTS THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
PUSH EAST AND BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN THE OHIO
VALLEY BY MONDAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER INDIANA BY 18Z MONDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH THIS PERIOD SHOW A DRY COLUMN WITH
UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. THUS
WILL TREND TOWARD MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT DURING
THIS PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS COOLER
THAN MAVMOS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BY SUNDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AMID SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. WILL
STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS LOWS AND HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH WILL AFFECT
THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS TO
HOW FAST THE NEXT TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH...WITH SOME OF THE SLOWER
MEMBERS SUGGESTING THE TROUGH WILL NOT PASS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL GO WITH POPS FOR RAIN STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE BEST PRECIPITATION
THREAT WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/0600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO TAF SITES
TONIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT VFR CATEGORY. THIS WILL
CHANGE THIS MORNING THOUGH WHEN A STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS
INDIANA AND CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY. IN
ADDITION...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT SITES FOR MOST OF
TODAY.  SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 14 TO 17 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KTS. A FEW FLURRIES COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS BY THIS
EVENING...KEEPING CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE MVFR/VFR MARK THROUGH THE
END OF TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...TDUD/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 310436
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1235 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

AN UPPER WAVE WILL SWING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THEN...AN AMPLIFYING ONTARIO UPPER TROUGH
WILL CLOSE OFF ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA LATE FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
AND CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY WITH RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

RADAR LOOPS AND MODELS INDICATE VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION.  MAIN CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE WILL BE TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT NORTHWEST SECTIONS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...RAISED MINS SLIGHTLY CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT GIVEN CLOUDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY NOT REACH MOST AREAS UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE LOOMING HALLOWEEN STORM
THAT WILL BRING WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS AS WELL AS SNOW SHOWERS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA. CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO GO
AHEAD WITH A FREEZE WARNING OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER 40S
AND UPPER 30S FROM 22Z-00Z AND WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO
30 WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE TRICK OR TREAT HOURS.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WESTERN ONTARIO UPPER
TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY AND CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY AS
IT MOVES TO EAST CENTRAL INDIANA TOWARD 00Z SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...1000-850 MILLIBAR FRONTOGENESIS WILL WORK ITS WAY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 20Z OR SO. MODEL 1000-850
MILLIBAR THICKNESS PROGS BRING THE 1300 METER LINE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA AROUND THE SAME TIME AS WELL. THAT AS WELL AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE MIXING WITH OR
CHANGING TO SNOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT...
WITH NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ONLY DROPPING OFF SLIGHTLY. WITH
WARM GROUNDS...DO NOT THINK THE SNOW WILL STICK.

THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL SEE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BRING IN DRY
BUT COLD CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES. BLEND LOOKS GOOD ON
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

EVEN WITH THE FRONT AND RAIN IN THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MOST
OF THE COLDER AIR REMAINING BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/0600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO TAF SITES
TONIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT VFR CATEGORY. THIS WILL
CHANGE THIS MORNING THOUGH WHEN A STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS
INDIANA AND CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY. IN
ADDITION...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT SITES FOR MOST OF
TODAY.  SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 14 TO 17 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KTS. A FEW FLURRIES COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS BY THIS
EVENING...KEEPING CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE MVFR/VFR MARK THROUGH THE
END OF TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 310209
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1009 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

AN UPPER WAVE WILL SWING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THEN...AN AMPLIFYING ONTARIO UPPER TROUGH
WILL CLOSE OFF ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA LATE FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
AND CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY WITH RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

RADAR LOOPS AND MODELS INDICATE VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION.  MAIN CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE WILL BE TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT NORTHWEST SECTIONS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...RAISED MINS SLIGHTLY CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT GIVEN CLOUDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY NOT REACH MOST AREAS UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE LOOMING HALLOWEEN STORM
THAT WILL BRING WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS AS WELL AS SNOW SHOWERS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA. CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO GO
AHEAD WITH A FREEZE WARNING OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER 40S
AND UPPER 30S FROM 22Z-00Z AND WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO
30 WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE TRICK OR TREAT HOURS.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WESTERN ONTARIO UPPER
TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY AND CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY AS
IT MOVES TO EAST CENTRAL INDIANA TOWARD 00Z SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...1000-850 MILLIBAR FRONTOGENESIS WILL WORK ITS WAY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 20Z OR SO. MODEL 1000-850
MILLIBAR THICKNESS PROGS BRING THE 1300 METER LINE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA AROUND THE SAME TIME AS WELL. THAT AS WELL AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE MIXING WITH OR
CHANGING TO SNOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT...
WITH NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ONLY DROPPING OFF SLIGHTLY. WITH
WARM GROUNDS...DO NOT THINK THE SNOW WILL STICK.

THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL SEE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BRING IN DRY
BUT COLD CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES. BLEND LOOKS GOOD ON
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

EVEN WITH THE FRONT AND RAIN IN THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MOST
OF THE COLDER AIR REMAINING BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/0300Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1008 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT VFR CATEGORY.
THIS WILL CHANGE TOMORROW MORNING THOUGH WHEN A STRONGER UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS INDIANA AND CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY.
IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT SITES FROM
TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL
RANGE FROM 14 TO 17 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. A FEW FLURRIES
COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS BY TOMORROW EVENING...KEEPING
CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE MVFR/VFR MARK THROUGH THE END OF TAF PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 310139
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
940 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

AN UPPER WAVE WILL SWING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THEN...AN AMPLIFYING ONTARIO UPPER TROUGH
WILL CLOSE OFF ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA LATE FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
AND CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY WITH RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

RADAR LOOPS AND MODELS INDICATE VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION.  MAIN CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE WILL BE TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT NORTHWEST SECTIONS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...RAISED MINS SLIGHTLY CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT GIVEN CLOUDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY NOT REACH MOST AREAS UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE LOOMING HALLOWEEN STORM
THAT WILL BRING WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS AS WELL AS SNOW SHOWERS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA. CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO GO
AHEAD WITH A FREEZE WARNING OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER 40S
AND UPPER 30S FROM 22Z-00Z AND WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO
30 WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE TRICK OR TREAT HOURS.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WESTERN ONTARIO UPPER
TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY AND CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY AS
IT MOVES TO EAST CENTRAL INDIANA TOWARD 00Z SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...1000-850 MILLIBAR FRONTOGENESIS WILL WORK ITS WAY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 20Z OR SO. MODEL 1000-850
MILLIBAR THICKNESS PROGS BRING THE 1300 METER LINE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA AROUND THE SAME TIME AS WELL. THAT AS WELL AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE MIXING WITH OR
CHANGING TO SNOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT...
WITH NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ONLY DROPPING OFF SLIGHTLY. WITH
WARM GROUNDS...DO NOT THINK THE SNOW WILL STICK.

THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL SEE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BRING IN DRY
BUT COLD CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES. BLEND LOOKS GOOD ON
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

EVEN WITH THE FRONT AND RAIN IN THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MOST
OF THE COLDER AIR REMAINING BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT VFR CATEGORY.
THIS WILL CHANGE TOMORROW MORNING THOUGH WHEN A STRONGER UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS INDIANA AND CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY.
IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT SITES FROM
TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL
RANGE FROM 14 TO 17 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. A FEW FLURRIES
COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS BY TOMORROW EVENING...KEEPING
CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE MVFR/VFR MARK THROUGH THE END OF TAF PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 302336
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
736 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

AN UPPER WAVE WILL SWING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THEN...AN AMPLIFYING ONTARIO UPPER TROUGH
WILL CLOSE OFF ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA LATE FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
AND CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY WITH RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 DURING
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. THEN...MODELS ALSO BRING SOME QPF
TO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AFTER 09Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INTENSIFYING ONTARIO TROUGH AND AREA OF 1000-850 MILLIBAR
FRONTOGENESIS. WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE HOURLY POPS.

MOS OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE PRETTY CLOSE...ENOUGH SO TO USE A BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE LOOMING HALLOWEEN STORM
THAT WILL BRING WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS AS WELL AS SNOW SHOWERS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA. CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO GO
AHEAD WITH A FREEZE WARNING OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER 40S
AND UPPER 30S FROM 22Z-00Z AND WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO
30 WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE TRICK OR TREAT HOURS.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WESTERN ONTARIO UPPER
TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY AND CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY AS
IT MOVES TO EAST CENTRAL INDIANA TOWARD 00Z SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...1000-850 MILLIBAR FRONTOGENESIS WILL WORK ITS WAY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 20Z OR SO. MODEL 1000-850
MILLIBAR THICKNESS PROGS BRING THE 1300 METER LINE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA AROUND THE SAME TIME AS WELL. THAT AS WELL AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE MIXING WITH OR
CHANGING TO SNOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT...
WITH NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ONLY DROPPING OFF SLIGHTLY. WITH
WARM GROUNDS...DO NOT THINK THE SNOW WILL STICK.

THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL SEE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BRING IN DRY
BUT COLD CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES. BLEND LOOKS GOOD ON
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

EVEN WITH THE FRONT AND RAIN IN THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MOST
OF THE COLDER AIR REMAINING BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT VFR CATEGORY.
THIS WILL CHANGE TOMORROW MORNING THOUGH WHEN A STRONGER UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS INDIANA AND CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY.
IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT SITES FROM
TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL
RANGE FROM 14 TO 17 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. A FEW FLURRIES
COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS BY TOMORROW EVENING...KEEPING
CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE MVFR/VFR MARK THROUGH THE END OF TAF PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 302042
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
442 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

AN UPPER WAVE WILL SWING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THEN...AN AMPLIFYING ONTARIO UPPER TROUGH
WILL CLOSE OFF ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA LATE FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
AND CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY WITH RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 DURING
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. THEN...MODELS ALSO BRING SOME QPF
TO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AFTER 09Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INTENSIFYING ONTARIO TROUGH AND AREA OF 1000-850 MILLIBAR
FRONTOGENESIS. WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE HOURLY POPS.

MOS OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE PRETTY CLOSE...ENOUGH SO TO USE A BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE LOOMING HALLOWEEN STORM
THAT WILL BRING WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS AS WELL AS SNOW SHOWERS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA. CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO GO
AHEAD WITH A FREEZE WARNING OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER 40S
AND UPPER 30S FROM 22Z-00Z AND WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO
30 WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE TRICK OR TREAT HOURS.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WESTERN ONTARIO UPPER
TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY AND CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY AS
IT MOVES TO EAST CENTRAL INDIANA TOWARD 00Z SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...1000-850 MILLIBAR FRONTOGENESIS WILL WORK ITS WAY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 20Z OR SO. MODEL 1000-850
MILLIBAR THICKNESS PROGS BRING THE 1300 METER LINE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA AROUND THE SAME TIME AS WELL. THAT AS WELL AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE MIXING WITH OR
CHANGING TO SNOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT...
WITH NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ONLY DROPPING OFF SLIGHTLY. WITH
WARM GROUNDS...DO NOT THINK THE SNOW WILL STICK.

THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL SEE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BRING IN DRY
BUT COLD CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES. BLEND LOOKS GOOD ON
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

EVEN WITH THE FRONT AND RAIN IN THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MOST
OF THE COLDER AIR REMAINING BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/2100Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR THROUGH FIRST HALF OF PERIOD...MVFR WITH GUSTY WINDS 2ND HALF.

UPPER WAVE WILL BRING MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. RAIN IS LIGHT SO
EVEN IN SHOWERS EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.

STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SITES SEEING GUSTS AT OR OVER
30KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. /CAN ONLY ADD THESE TO KIND 30 HOUR TAF/.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 301829
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
229 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

AN UPPER WAVE WILL SWING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THEN...AN AMPLIFYING ONTARIO UPPER TROUGH
WILL CLOSE OFF ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA LATE FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
AND CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY WITH RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 DURING
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. THEN...MODELS ALSO BRING SOME QPF
TO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AFTER 09Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INTENSIFYING ONTARIO TROUGH AND AREA OF 1000-850 MILLIBAR
FRONTOGENESIS. WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE HOURLY POPS.

MOS OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE PRETTY CLOSE...ENOUGH SO TO USE A BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE LOOMING HALLOWEEN STORM
THAT WILL BRING WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS AS WELL AS SNOW SHOWERS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA. CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO GO
AHEAD WITH A FREEZE WARNING OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER 40S
AND UPPER 30S FROM 22Z-00Z AND WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO
30 WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE TRICK OR TREAT HOURS.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WESTERN ONTARIO UPPER
TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY AND CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY AS
IT MOVES TO EAST CENTRAL INDIANA TOWARD 00Z SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...1000-850 MILLIBAR FRONTOGENESIS WILL WORK ITS WAY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 20Z OR SO. MODEL 1000-850
MILLIBAR THICKNESS PROGS BRING THE 1300 METER LINE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA AROUND THE SAME TIME AS WELL. THAT AS WELL AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE MIXING WITH OR
CHANGING TO SNOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT...
WITH NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ONLY DROPPING OFF SLIGHTLY. WITH
WARM GROUNDS...DO NOT THINK THE SNOW WILL STICK.

THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL SEE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BRING IN DRY
BUT COLD CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES. BLEND LOOKS GOOD ON
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

EVEN WITH THE FRONT AND RAIN IN THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MOST
OF THE COLDER AIR REMAINING BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 301800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR THROUGH FIRST HALF OF PERIOD...MVFR WITH GUSTY WINDS 2ND HALF.

UPPER WAVE WILL BRING MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. RAIN IS LIGHT SO
EVEN IN SHOWERS EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.

STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SITES SEEING GUSTS AT OR OVER
30KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. /CAN ONLY ADD THESE TO KIND 30 HOUR TAF/.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 301821
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
22- PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

AN UPPER WAVE WILL SWING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THEN...AN AMPLIFYING ONTARIO UPPER TROUGH
WILL CLOSE OFF ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA LATE FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
AND CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY WITH RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 DURING
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. THEN...MODELS ALSO BRING SOME QPF
TO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AFTER 09Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INTENSIFYING ONTARIO TROUGH AND AREA OF 1000-850 MILLIBAR
FRONTOGENESIS. WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE HOURLY POPS.

MOS OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE PRETTY CLOSE...ENOUGH SO TO USE A BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE LOOMING HALLOWEEN STORM
THAT WILL BRING WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS AS WELL AS SNOW SHOWERS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA. CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO GO
AHEAD WITH A FREEZE WARNING OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER 40S
AND UPPER 30S FROM 22Z-00Z AND WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO
30 WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE TRICK OR TREAT HOURS.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WESTERN ONTARIO UPPER
TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY AND CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY AS
IT MOVES TO EAST CENTRAL INDIANA TOWARD 00Z SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...1000-850 MILLIBAR FRONTOGENESIS WILL WORK ITS WAY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 20Z OR SO. MODEL 1000-850
MILLIBAR THICKNESS PROGS BRING THE 1300 METER LINE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA AROUND THE SAME TIME AS WELL. THAT AS WELL AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE MIXING WITH OR
CHANGING TO SNOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT...
WITH NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ONLY DROPPING OFF SLIGHTLY. WITH
WARM GROUNDS...DO NOT THINK THE SNOW WILL STICK.

THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL SEE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BRING IN DRY
BUT COLD CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES. BLEND LOOKS GOOD ON
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

EVEN WITH THE FRONT AND RAIN IN THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MOST
OF THE COLDER AIR REMAINING BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 301800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR THROUGH FIRST HALF OF PERIOD...MVFR WITH GUSTY WINDS 2ND HALF.

UPPER WAVE WILL BRING MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. RAIN IS LIGHT SO
EVEN IN SHOWERS EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.

STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SITES SEEING GUSTS AT OR OVER
30KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. /CAN ONLY ADD THESE TO KIND 30 HOUR TAF/.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 301804
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
204 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...

THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A SURFACE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE...FOLLOWED BY A FAR MORE
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW ON HALLOWEEN...WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE
PERIOD TO END THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE FIRST CHANCES FOR
SNOWFLAKES COMING HALLOWEEN NIGHT...AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
YOUNG SEASON FOLLOWING ALONG FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL HAVE TO MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST
AFTER ABOUT 21Z. MOISTURE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR.

THICKNESSES SUGGEST WARMER MOS BLEND IS PREFERABLE...AND EXPECT
HIGHS TODAY TO GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON HALLOWEEN AND HALLOWEEN
NIGHT...WHEN A FAR MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION. SYNOPTIC FORCING IS ADEQUATE BUT MESOSCALE FORCING IN
THE FORM OF EXTREMELY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS MERITS THE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WHILE
DRIER AIR DOES MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD
LINGER THAT...COUPLED WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION...AND POTENTIAL
LAKE ENHANCEMENT...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE A THREAT ACROSS THE AREA.
VERY WARM GROUND WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY ACCUMULATION AS SNOW
SHOULD MELT FAIRLY QUICKLY UPON CONTACT WITH THE GROUND...BUT
COULD SEE A DUSTING ON ELEVATED SURFACES FRIDAY NIGHT.

IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD EASILY SEE GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS AS STRONG BRIEFLY
INTO THE EVENING FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR WFO IND ENDS ON NOVEMBER 1ST AND
SOME NEIGHBORS HAVE ALSO ALREADY SHUT DOWN THEIR PROGRAMS FOR THE
SEASON...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FREEZE HEADLINES AT THE MOMENT. DAY
SHIFT MAY WISH TO DISCUSS FURTHER...AND COORDINATE AGAIN WITH
OTHER NEIGHBORS WHO HAVE NOT YET ENDED THEIR PROGRAMS ON IF IT IS
NECESSARY TO ISSUE A HEADLINE FOR THE MORNING OF THE 1ST.

MODEL BLENDS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY WELL
AND FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

EVEN WITH THE FRONT AND RAIN IN THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MOST
OF THE COLDER AIR REMAINING BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 301800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR THROUGH FIRST HALF OF PERIOD...MVFR WITH GUSTY WINDS 2ND HALF.

UPPER WAVE WILL BRING MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. RAIN IS LIGHT SO
EVEN IN SHOWERS EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.

STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SITES SEEING GUSTS AT OR OVER
30KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. /CAN ONLY ADD THESE TO KIND 30 HOUR TAF/.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 301634
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1234 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A SURFACE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE...FOLLOWED BY A FAR MORE
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW ON HALLOWEEN...WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE
PERIOD TO END THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE FIRST CHANCES FOR
SNOWFLAKES COMING HALLOWEEN NIGHT...AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
YOUNG SEASON FOLLOWING ALONG FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL HAVE TO MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST
AFTER ABOUT 21Z. MOISTURE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR.

THICKNESSES SUGGEST WARMER MOS BLEND IS PREFERABLE...AND EXPECT
HIGHS TODAY TO GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON HALLOWEEN AND HALLOWEEN
NIGHT...WHEN A FAR MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION. SYNOPTIC FORCING IS ADEQUATE BUT MESOSCALE FORCING IN
THE FORM OF EXTREMELY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS MERITS THE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WHILE
DRIER AIR DOES MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD
LINGER THAT...COUPLED WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION...AND POTENTIAL
LAKE ENHANCEMENT...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE A THREAT ACROSS THE AREA.
VERY WARM GROUND WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY ACCUMULATION AS SNOW
SHOULD MELT FAIRLY QUICKLY UPON CONTACT WITH THE GROUND...BUT
COULD SEE A DUSTING ON ELEVATED SURFACES FRIDAY NIGHT.

IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD EASILY SEE GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS AS STRONG BRIEFLY
INTO THE EVENING FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR WFO IND ENDS ON NOVEMBER 1ST AND
SOME NEIGHBORS HAVE ALSO ALREADY SHUT DOWN THEIR PROGRAMS FOR THE
SEASON...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FREEZE HEADLINES AT THE MOMENT. DAY
SHIFT MAY WISH TO DISCUSS FURTHER...AND COORDINATE AGAIN WITH
OTHER NEIGHBORS WHO HAVE NOT YET ENDED THEIR PROGRAMS ON IF IT IS
NECESSARY TO ISSUE A HEADLINE FOR THE MORNING OF THE 1ST.

MODEL BLENDS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY WELL
AND FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN ON MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S.
BORDER.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  REGIONAL INITIALIZATION IS
HANDLING PATTERN WELL DUE TO GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY...SO WILL NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME.  AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL BUMP HIGHS
INTO THE 50S FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 301800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR THROUGH FIRST HALF OF PERIOD...MVFR WITH GUSTY WINDS 2ND HALF.

UPPER WAVE WILL BRING MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. RAIN IS LIGHT SO
EVEN IN SHOWERS EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.

STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SITES SEEING GUSTS AT OR OVER
30KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. /CAN ONLY ADD THESE TO KIND 30 HOUR TAF/.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 301634
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1234 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A SURFACE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE...FOLLOWED BY A FAR MORE
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW ON HALLOWEEN...WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE
PERIOD TO END THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE FIRST CHANCES FOR
SNOWFLAKES COMING HALLOWEEN NIGHT...AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
YOUNG SEASON FOLLOWING ALONG FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL HAVE TO MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST
AFTER ABOUT 21Z. MOISTURE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR.

THICKNESSES SUGGEST WARMER MOS BLEND IS PREFERABLE...AND EXPECT
HIGHS TODAY TO GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON HALLOWEEN AND HALLOWEEN
NIGHT...WHEN A FAR MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION. SYNOPTIC FORCING IS ADEQUATE BUT MESOSCALE FORCING IN
THE FORM OF EXTREMELY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS MERITS THE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WHILE
DRIER AIR DOES MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD
LINGER THAT...COUPLED WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION...AND POTENTIAL
LAKE ENHANCEMENT...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE A THREAT ACROSS THE AREA.
VERY WARM GROUND WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY ACCUMULATION AS SNOW
SHOULD MELT FAIRLY QUICKLY UPON CONTACT WITH THE GROUND...BUT
COULD SEE A DUSTING ON ELEVATED SURFACES FRIDAY NIGHT.

IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD EASILY SEE GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS AS STRONG BRIEFLY
INTO THE EVENING FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR WFO IND ENDS ON NOVEMBER 1ST AND
SOME NEIGHBORS HAVE ALSO ALREADY SHUT DOWN THEIR PROGRAMS FOR THE
SEASON...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FREEZE HEADLINES AT THE MOMENT. DAY
SHIFT MAY WISH TO DISCUSS FURTHER...AND COORDINATE AGAIN WITH
OTHER NEIGHBORS WHO HAVE NOT YET ENDED THEIR PROGRAMS ON IF IT IS
NECESSARY TO ISSUE A HEADLINE FOR THE MORNING OF THE 1ST.

MODEL BLENDS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY WELL
AND FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN ON MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S.
BORDER.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  REGIONAL INITIALIZATION IS
HANDLING PATTERN WELL DUE TO GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY...SO WILL NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME.  AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL BUMP HIGHS
INTO THE 50S FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 301800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR THROUGH FIRST HALF OF PERIOD...MVFR WITH GUSTY WINDS 2ND HALF.

UPPER WAVE WILL BRING MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. RAIN IS LIGHT SO
EVEN IN SHOWERS EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.

STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SITES SEEING GUSTS AT OR OVER
30KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. /CAN ONLY ADD THESE TO KIND 30 HOUR TAF/.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 301426
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A SURFACE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE...FOLLOWED BY A FAR MORE
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW ON HALLOWEEN...WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE
PERIOD TO END THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE FIRST CHANCES FOR
SNOWFLAKES COMING HALLOWEEN NIGHT...AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
YOUNG SEASON FOLLOWING ALONG FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL HAVE TO MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST
AFTER ABOUT 21Z. MOISTURE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR.

THICKNESSES SUGGEST WARMER MOS BLEND IS PREFERABLE...AND EXPECT
HIGHS TODAY TO GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON HALLOWEEN AND HALLOWEEN
NIGHT...WHEN A FAR MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION. SYNOPTIC FORCING IS ADEQUATE BUT MESOSCALE FORCING IN
THE FORM OF EXTREMELY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS MERITS THE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WHILE
DRIER AIR DOES MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD
LINGER THAT...COUPLED WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION...AND POTENTIAL
LAKE ENHANCEMENT...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE A THREAT ACROSS THE AREA.
VERY WARM GROUND WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY ACCUMULATION AS SNOW
SHOULD MELT FAIRLY QUICKLY UPON CONTACT WITH THE GROUND...BUT
COULD SEE A DUSTING ON ELEVATED SURFACES FRIDAY NIGHT.

IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD EASILY SEE GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS AS STRONG BRIEFLY
INTO THE EVENING FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR WFO IND ENDS ON NOVEMBER 1ST AND
SOME NEIGHBORS HAVE ALSO ALREADY SHUT DOWN THEIR PROGRAMS FOR THE
SEASON...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FREEZE HEADLINES AT THE MOMENT. DAY
SHIFT MAY WISH TO DISCUSS FURTHER...AND COORDINATE AGAIN WITH
OTHER NEIGHBORS WHO HAVE NOT YET ENDED THEIR PROGRAMS ON IF IT IS
NECESSARY TO ISSUE A HEADLINE FOR THE MORNING OF THE 1ST.

MODEL BLENDS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY WELL
AND FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN ON MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S.
BORDER.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  REGIONAL INITIALIZATION IS
HANDLING PATTERN WELL DUE TO GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY...SO WILL NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME.  AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL BUMP HIGHS
INTO THE 50S FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 301500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO KIND TAF BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ONLY EXCEPTION IS SOME FOG IN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO AT LAF.

INCREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUD EXPECTED AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH MENTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD/50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 301054
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
653 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A SURFACE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE...FOLLOWED BY A FAR MORE
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW ON HALLOWEEN...WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE
PERIOD TO END THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE FIRST CHANCES FOR
SNOWFLAKES COMING HALLOWEEN NIGHT...AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
YOUNG SEASON FOLLOWING ALONG FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL HAVE TO MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST
AFTER ABOUT 21Z. MOISTURE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR.

THICKNESSES SUGGEST WARMER MOS BLEND IS PREFERABLE...AND EXPECT
HIGHS TODAY TO GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON HALLOWEEN AND HALLOWEEN
NIGHT...WHEN A FAR MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION. SYNOPTIC FORCING IS ADEQUATE BUT MESOSCALE FORCING IN
THE FORM OF EXTREMELY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS MERITS THE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WHILE
DRIER AIR DOES MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD
LINGER THAT...COUPLED WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION...AND POTENTIAL
LAKE ENHANCEMENT...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE A THREAT ACROSS THE AREA.
VERY WARM GROUND WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY ACCUMULATION AS SNOW
SHOULD MELT FAIRLY QUICKLY UPON CONTACT WITH THE GROUND...BUT
COULD SEE A DUSTING ON ELEVATED SURFACES FRIDAY NIGHT.

IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD EASILY SEE GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS AS STRONG BRIEFLY
INTO THE EVENING FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR WFO IND ENDS ON NOVEMBER 1ST AND
SOME NEIGHBORS HAVE ALSO ALREADY SHUT DOWN THEIR PROGRAMS FOR THE
SEASON...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FREEZE HEADLINES AT THE MOMENT. DAY
SHIFT MAY WISH TO DISCUSS FURTHER...AND COORDINATE AGAIN WITH
OTHER NEIGHBORS WHO HAVE NOT YET ENDED THEIR PROGRAMS ON IF IT IS
NECESSARY TO ISSUE A HEADLINE FOR THE MORNING OF THE 1ST.

MODEL BLENDS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY WELL
AND FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN ON MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S.
BORDER.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  REGIONAL INITIALIZATION IS
HANDLING PATTERN WELL DUE TO GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY...SO WILL NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME.  AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL BUMP HIGHS
INTO THE 50S FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ONLY EXCEPTION IS SOME FOG IN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO AT LAF.

INCREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUD EXPECTED AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH MENTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 301054
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
653 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A SURFACE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE...FOLLOWED BY A FAR MORE
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW ON HALLOWEEN...WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE
PERIOD TO END THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE FIRST CHANCES FOR
SNOWFLAKES COMING HALLOWEEN NIGHT...AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
YOUNG SEASON FOLLOWING ALONG FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL HAVE TO MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST
AFTER ABOUT 21Z. MOISTURE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR.

THICKNESSES SUGGEST WARMER MOS BLEND IS PREFERABLE...AND EXPECT
HIGHS TODAY TO GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON HALLOWEEN AND HALLOWEEN
NIGHT...WHEN A FAR MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION. SYNOPTIC FORCING IS ADEQUATE BUT MESOSCALE FORCING IN
THE FORM OF EXTREMELY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS MERITS THE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WHILE
DRIER AIR DOES MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD
LINGER THAT...COUPLED WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION...AND POTENTIAL
LAKE ENHANCEMENT...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE A THREAT ACROSS THE AREA.
VERY WARM GROUND WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY ACCUMULATION AS SNOW
SHOULD MELT FAIRLY QUICKLY UPON CONTACT WITH THE GROUND...BUT
COULD SEE A DUSTING ON ELEVATED SURFACES FRIDAY NIGHT.

IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD EASILY SEE GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS AS STRONG BRIEFLY
INTO THE EVENING FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR WFO IND ENDS ON NOVEMBER 1ST AND
SOME NEIGHBORS HAVE ALSO ALREADY SHUT DOWN THEIR PROGRAMS FOR THE
SEASON...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FREEZE HEADLINES AT THE MOMENT. DAY
SHIFT MAY WISH TO DISCUSS FURTHER...AND COORDINATE AGAIN WITH
OTHER NEIGHBORS WHO HAVE NOT YET ENDED THEIR PROGRAMS ON IF IT IS
NECESSARY TO ISSUE A HEADLINE FOR THE MORNING OF THE 1ST.

MODEL BLENDS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY WELL
AND FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN ON MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S.
BORDER.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  REGIONAL INITIALIZATION IS
HANDLING PATTERN WELL DUE TO GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY...SO WILL NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME.  AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL BUMP HIGHS
INTO THE 50S FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ONLY EXCEPTION IS SOME FOG IN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO AT LAF.

INCREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUD EXPECTED AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH MENTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 300821
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
421 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A SURFACE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE...FOLLOWED BY A FAR MORE
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW ON HALLOWEEN...WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE
PERIOD TO END THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE FIRST CHANCES FOR
SNOWFLAKES COMING HALLOWEEN NIGHT...AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
YOUNG SEASON FOLLOWING ALONG FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL HAVE TO MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST
AFTER ABOUT 21Z. MOISTURE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR.

THICKNESSES SUGGEST WARMER MOS BLEND IS PREFERABLE...AND EXPECT
HIGHS TODAY TO GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON HALLOWEEN AND HALLOWEEN
NIGHT...WHEN A FAR MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION. SYNOPTIC FORCING IS ADEQUATE BUT MESOSCALE FORCING IN
THE FORM OF EXTREMELY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS MERITS THE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WHILE
DRIER AIR DOES MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD
LINGER THAT...COUPLED WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION...AND POTENTIAL
LAKE ENHANCEMENT...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE A THREAT ACROSS THE AREA.
VERY WARM GROUND WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY ACCUMULATION AS SNOW
SHOULD MELT FAIRLY QUICKLY UPON CONTACT WITH THE GROUND...BUT
COULD SEE A DUSTING ON ELEVATED SURFACES FRIDAY NIGHT.

IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD EASILY SEE GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS AS STRONG BRIEFLY
INTO THE EVENING FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR WFO IND ENDS ON NOVEMBER 1ST AND
SOME NEIGHBORS HAVE ALSO ALREADY SHUT DOWN THEIR PROGRAMS FOR THE
SEASON...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FREEZE HEADLINES AT THE MOMENT. DAY
SHIFT MAY WISH TO DISCUSS FURTHER...AND COORDINATE AGAIN WITH
OTHER NEIGHBORS WHO HAVE NOT YET ENDED THEIR PROGRAMS ON IF IT IS
NECESSARY TO ISSUE A HEADLINE FOR THE MORNING OF THE 1ST.

MODEL BLENDS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY WELL
AND FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN ON MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S.
BORDER.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  REGIONAL INITIALIZATION IS
HANDLING PATTERN WELL DUE TO GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY...SO WILL NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME.  AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL BUMP HIGHS
INTO THE 50S FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

STRATOCU WILL LINGER OVER A FEW TAF SITES FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY
FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD REGARLESS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES
TAF SITES. ENTERED VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES LATE IN TAF PERIOD AS
UPPER WAVE TRIGGERS SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 3
TO 6 KTS AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 300502
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
102 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET BUT COLD AND COULD SEE SOME FROST.
AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THIS WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS...COLD TEMPERATURES...AND THE FIRST CHANCES FOR SNOW THIS FALL
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1004 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

STUBBORN STRATOCU DECK LINGERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING BUT IS SHOWING RECENT SIGNS OF EROSION ON ITS WESTERN
FLANK OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS. TEMPS AT 02Z WERE GENERALLY IN THE
40S.

NOT MUCH NEEDED TO CHANGE FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...AS THE FOCUS
CONTINUES TO BE ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD DECK DEPARTS AND THE
SUBSEQUENT IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS. RUC RH PROGS HAVE A NICE HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT AREAL COVERAGE TO THE CLOUD DECK AND WERE PRIMARILY
UTILIZED. UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST WITH
RIDGE ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...EXPECT THE DECK TO QUICKLY ERODE WITH FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA BEING THE LAST SECTION TO CLEAR TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
EXPANDED CLOUD COVER IN GRIDS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH CLEARING
FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LOW TEMPS AS RELAXING OF THE SURFACE WINDS
AND 3-6 HOURS OF CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID 30S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
FROST TO FORM. HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO AMOUNT OF
FROST ACCRUAL AS CLOUDS AND WINDS DIMINISH LATE. DO EXPECT
SHELTERED...LOW LYING AND OUR NORMAL COOL SPOTS TO SEE FROST PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WARM ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE. WITH MORE SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE DAY
BUT LESS LATER AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SIMILAR TO A GUIDANCE AVERAGE IN
THE NORTH BUT A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST. BOTH NAM
AND GFS ARE SHOWING SOME FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
ARRIVING BY EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH SOME QPF MOVING INTO THE AREA
BUT MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS WAVE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS MUCH MORE POTENT. THUS WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST
TAPERING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTH
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50+ KTS OUT OF THE NORTH AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD BRING WIND
GUSTS OF 30-40+ MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. AS
FAR AS PRECIP TYPE IS CONCERNED...SHOULD START THE DAY OUT AS RAIN
EVERYWHERE. MODELS ARE FASTER BRINGING IN THE COLD AIR ALOFT THIS
RUN AND TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION BY INTRODUCING A RAIN SNOW MIX
AFTER 21Z APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF I70. IF TREND CONTINUES THIS TIMING
COULD NEED TO BE MOVED UP. WITH THE SYSTEM SPEED A BIT FASTER THIS
SET OF RUNS HAVE DECREASED POPS IN THE WEST DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
A GOOD FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW REACHING THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM. OVERALL...THE COLD
RAIN WITH SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING COMBINED WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
SHOULD MAKE FOR PRETTY MISERABLE CONDITIONS HALLOWEEN EVENING. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE BELOW FREEZING.

THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT LEAVES COLD AIR IN ITS
WAKE WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHILE THE REGIONAL INITIALIZATION WILL NOT BE CHANGED...THIS IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

OVERALL A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS GOING TO CONTINUE. RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE WEATHER. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW THEY HANDLE
THESE DISTURBANCES.

ALSO...INFORMATION FROM THE ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING CENTER SHOWS
HIGH VARIANCE BETWEEN ITS DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE FORECASTS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

STRATOCU WILL LINGER OVER A FEW TAF SITES FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY
FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD REGARLESS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES
TAF SITES. ENTERED VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES LATE IN TAF PERIOD AS
UPPER WAVE TRIGGERS SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 3
TO 6 KTS AFTER SUNRISE.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 300218
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1018 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET BUT COLD AND COULD SEE SOME FROST.
AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THIS WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS...COLD TEMPERATURES...AND THE FIRST CHANCES FOR SNOW THIS FALL
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1004 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

STUBBORN STRATOCU DECK LINGERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING BUT IS SHOWING RECENT SIGNS OF EROSION ON ITS WESTERN
FLANK OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS. TEMPS AT 02Z WERE GENERALLY IN THE
40S.

NOT MUCH NEEDED TO CHANGE FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...AS THE FOCUS
CONTINUES TO BE ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD DECK DEPARTS AND THE
SUBSEQUENT IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS. RUC RH PROGS HAVE A NICE HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT AREAL COVERAGE TO THE CLOUD DECK AND WERE PRIMARILY
UTILIZED. UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST WITH
RIDGE ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...EXPECT THE DECK TO QUICKLY ERODE WITH FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA BEING THE LAST SECTION TO CLEAR TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
EXPANDED CLOUD COVER IN GRIDS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH CLEARING
FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LOW TEMPS AS RELAXING OF THE SURFACE WINDS
AND 3-6 HOURS OF CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID 30S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
FROST TO FORM. HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO AMOUNT OF
FROST ACCRUAL AS CLOUDS AND WINDS DIMINISH LATE. DO EXPECT
SHELTERED...LOW LYING AND OUR NORMAL COOL SPOTS TO SEE FROST PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WARM ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE. WITH MORE SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE DAY
BUT LESS LATER AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SIMILAR TO A GUIDANCE AVERAGE IN
THE NORTH BUT A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST. BOTH NAM
AND GFS ARE SHOWING SOME FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
ARRIVING BY EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH SOME QPF MOVING INTO THE AREA
BUT MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS WAVE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS MUCH MORE POTENT. THUS WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST
TAPERING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTH
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50+ KTS OUT OF THE NORTH AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD BRING WIND
GUSTS OF 30-40+ MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. AS
FAR AS PRECIP TYPE IS CONCERNED...SHOULD START THE DAY OUT AS RAIN
EVERYWHERE. MODELS ARE FASTER BRINGING IN THE COLD AIR ALOFT THIS
RUN AND TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION BY INTRODUCING A RAIN SNOW MIX
AFTER 21Z APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF I70. IF TREND CONTINUES THIS TIMING
COULD NEED TO BE MOVED UP. WITH THE SYSTEM SPEED A BIT FASTER THIS
SET OF RUNS HAVE DECREASED POPS IN THE WEST DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
A GOOD FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW REACHING THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM. OVERALL...THE COLD
RAIN WITH SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING COMBINED WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
SHOULD MAKE FOR PRETTY MISERABLE CONDITIONS HALLOWEEN EVENING. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE BELOW FREEZING.

THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT LEAVES COLD AIR IN ITS
WAKE WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHILE THE REGIONAL INITIALIZATION WILL NOT BE CHANGED...THIS IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

OVERALL A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS GOING TO CONTINUE. RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE WEATHER. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW THEY HANDLE
THESE DISTURBANCES.

ALSO...INFORMATION FROM THE ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING CENTER SHOWS
HIGH VARIANCE BETWEEN ITS DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE FORECASTS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/0300Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1016 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD. FOG
FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES TAF SITES. ENTERED VCSH AT KIND LATE IN TAF
PERIOD AS UPPER WAVE TRIGGERS SHOWERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT...THEY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 300204
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1004 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET BUT COLD AND COULD SEE SOME FROST.
AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THIS WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS...COLD TEMPERATURES...AND THE FIRST CHANCES FOR SNOW THIS FALL
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1004 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

STUBBORN STRATOCU DECK LINGERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING BUT IS SHOWING RECENT SIGNS OF EROSION ON ITS WESTERN
FLANK OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS. TEMPS AT 02Z WERE GENERALLY IN THE
40S.

NOT MUCH NEEDED TO CHANGE FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...AS THE FOCUS
CONTINUES TO BE ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD DECK DEPARTS AND THE
SUBSEQUENT IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS. RUC RH PROGS HAVE A NICE HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT AREAL COVERAGE TO THE CLOUD DECK AND WERE PRIMARILY
UTILIZED. UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST WITH
RIDGE ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...EXPECT THE DECK TO QUICKLY ERODE WITH FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA BEING THE LAST SECTION TO CLEAR TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
EXPANDED CLOUD COVER IN GRIDS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH CLEARING
FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LOW TEMPS AS RELAXING OF THE SURFACE WINDS
AND 3-6 HOURS OF CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID 30S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
FROST TO FORM. HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO AMOUNT OF
FROST ACCRUAL AS CLOUDS AND WINDS DIMINISH LATE. DO EXPECT
SHELTERED...LOW LYING AND OUR NORMAL COOL SPOTS TO SEE FROST PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WARM ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE. WITH MORE SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE DAY
BUT LESS LATER AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SIMILAR TO A GUIDANCE AVERAGE IN
THE NORTH BUT A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST. BOTH NAM
AND GFS ARE SHOWING SOME FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
ARRIVING BY EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH SOME QPF MOVING INTO THE AREA
BUT MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS WAVE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS MUCH MORE POTENT. THUS WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST
TAPERING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTH
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50+ KTS OUT OF THE NORTH AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD BRING WIND
GUSTS OF 30-40+ MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. AS
FAR AS PRECIP TYPE IS CONCERNED...SHOULD START THE DAY OUT AS RAIN
EVERYWHERE. MODELS ARE FASTER BRINGING IN THE COLD AIR ALOFT THIS
RUN AND TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION BY INTRODUCING A RAIN SNOW MIX
AFTER 21Z APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF I70. IF TREND CONTINUES THIS TIMING
COULD NEED TO BE MOVED UP. WITH THE SYSTEM SPEED A BIT FASTER THIS
SET OF RUNS HAVE DECREASED POPS IN THE WEST DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
A GOOD FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW REACHING THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM. OVERALL...THE COLD
RAIN WITH SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING COMBINED WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
SHOULD MAKE FOR PRETTY MISERABLE CONDITIONS HALLOWEEN EVENING. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE BELOW FREEZING.

THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT LEAVES COLD AIR IN ITS
WAKE WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHILE THE REGIONAL INITIALIZATION WILL NOT BE CHANGED...THIS IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

OVERALL A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS GOING TO CONTINUE. RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE WEATHER. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW THEY HANDLE
THESE DISTURBANCES.

ALSO...INFORMATION FROM THE ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING CENTER SHOWS
HIGH VARIANCE BETWEEN ITS DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE FORECASTS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 652 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD. FOG
FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES TAF SITES. ENTERED VCSH AT KIND LATE IN TAF
PERIOD AS UPPER WAVE TRIGGERS SHOWERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT...THEY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 292258
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
658 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET BUT COLD AND COULD SEE SOME FROST.
AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THIS WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS...COLD TEMPERATURES...AND THE FIRST CHANCES FOR SNOW THIS FALL
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD BRING CLEARING
SKIES FROM THE WEST. THIS COULD HAPPEN FAIRLY LATE THOUGH AND THIS
LENDS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO JUST HOW COLD IT WILL GET. WENT WITH A
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S. WINDS WILL GO
CALM LATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
LEAD TO SOME FROST FORMATION. HOWEVER WITH UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW
QUICKLY SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND THUS HOW LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
AND DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CERTAINTY FOR A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WARM ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE. WITH MORE SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE DAY
BUT LESS LATER AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SIMILAR TO A GUIDANCE AVERAGE IN
THE NORTH BUT A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST. BOTH NAM
AND GFS ARE SHOWING SOME FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
ARRIVING BY EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH SOME QPF MOVING INTO THE AREA
BUT MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS WAVE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS MUCH MORE POTENT. THUS WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST
TAPERING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTH
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50+ KTS OUT OF THE NORTH AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD BRING WIND
GUSTS OF 30-40+ MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. AS
FAR AS PRECIP TYPE IS CONCERNED...SHOULD START THE DAY OUT AS RAIN
EVERYWHERE. MODELS ARE FASTER BRINGING IN THE COLD AIR ALOFT THIS
RUN AND TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION BY INTRODUCING A RAIN SNOW MIX
AFTER 21Z APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF I70. IF TREND CONTINUES THIS TIMING
COULD NEED TO BE MOVED UP. WITH THE SYSTEM SPEED A BIT FASTER THIS
SET OF RUNS HAVE DECREASED POPS IN THE WEST DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
A GOOD FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW REACHING THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM. OVERALL...THE COLD
RAIN WITH SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING COMBINED WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
SHOULD MAKE FOR PRETTY MISERABLE CONDITIONS HALLOWEEN EVENING. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE BELOW FREEZING.

THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT LEAVES COLD AIR IN ITS
WAKE WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHILE THE REGIONAL INITIALIZATION WILL NOT BE CHANGED...THIS IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

OVERALL A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS GOING TO CONTINUE. RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE WEATHER. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW THEY HANDLE
THESE DISTURBANCES.

ALSO...INFORMATION FROM THE ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING CENTER SHOWS
HIGH VARIANCE BETWEEN ITS DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE FORECASTS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 652 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD. FOG
FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES TAF SITES. ENTERED VCSH AT KIND LATE IN TAF
PERIOD AS UPPER WAVE TRIGGERS SHOWERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT...THEY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 292019
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
419 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET BUT COLD AND COULD SEE SOME FROST.
AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THIS WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS...COLD TEMPERATURES...AND THE FIRST CHANCES FOR SNOW THIS FALL
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD BRING CLEARING
SKIES FROM THE WEST. THIS COULD HAPPEN FAIRLY LATE THOUGH AND THIS
LENDS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO JUST HOW COLD IT WILL GET. WENT WITH A
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S. WINDS WILL GO
CALM LATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
LEAD TO SOME FROST FORMATION. HOWEVER WITH UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW
QUICKLY SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND THUS HOW LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
AND DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CERTAINTY FOR A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WARM ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE. WITH MORE SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE DAY
BUT LESS LATER AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SIMILAR TO A GUIDANCE AVERAGE IN
THE NORTH BUT A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST. BOTH NAM
AND GFS ARE SHOWING SOME FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
ARRIVING BY EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH SOME QPF MOVING INTO THE AREA
BUT MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS WAVE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS MUCH MORE POTENT. THUS WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST
TAPERING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTH
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50+ KTS OUT OF THE NORTH AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD BRING WIND
GUSTS OF 30-40+ MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. AS
FAR AS PRECIP TYPE IS CONCERNED...SHOULD START THE DAY OUT AS RAIN
EVERYWHERE. MODELS ARE FASTER BRINGING IN THE COLD AIR ALOFT THIS
RUN AND TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION BY INTRODUCING A RAIN SNOW MIX
AFTER 21Z APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF I70. IF TREND CONTINUES THIS TIMING
COULD NEED TO BE MOVED UP. WITH THE SYSTEM SPEED A BIT FASTER THIS
SET OF RUNS HAVE DECREASED POPS IN THE WEST DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
A GOOD FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW REACHING THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM. OVERALL...THE COLD
RAIN WITH SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING COMBINED WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
SHOULD MAKE FOR PRETTY MISERABLE CONDITIONS HALLOWEEN EVENING. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE BELOW FREEZING.

THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT LEAVES COLD AIR IN ITS
WAKE WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHILE THE REGIONAL INITIALIZATION WILL NOT BE CHANGED...THIS IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

OVERALL A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS GOING TO CONTINUE. RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE WEATHER. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW THEY HANDLE
THESE DISTURBANCES.

ALSO...INFORMATION FROM THE ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING CENTER SHOWS
HIGH VARIANCE BETWEEN ITS DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE FORECASTS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/2100Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LAKE EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS AT AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET TODAY WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SITES.
AFTER THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPEAR
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY WILL FALL OFF SHARPLY THIS
EVENING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. AFTER THAT...EXPECT WINDS TO
BE TOO LIGHT TO AFFECT OPERATIONS. BECAUSE OF LOW DEWPOINTS...FOG IS
UNLIKELY TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 291958
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
358 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET BUT COLD AND COULD SEE SOME FROST.
AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THIS WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS...COLD TEMPERATURES...AND THE FIRST CHANCES FOR SNOW THIS FALL
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD BRING CLEARING
SKIES FROM THE WEST. THIS COULD HAPPEN FAIRLY LATE THOUGH AND THIS
LENDS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO JUST HOW COLD IT WILL GET. WENT WITH A
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S. WINDS WILL GO
CALM LATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
LEAD TO SOME FROST FORMATION. HOWEVER WITH UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW
QUICKLY SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND THUS HOW LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
AND DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CERTAINTY FOR A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WARM ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE. WITH MORE SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE DAY
BUT LESS LATER AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SIMILAR TO A GUIDANCE AVERAGE IN
THE NORTH BUT A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST. BOTH NAM
AND GFS ARE SHOWING SOME FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
ARRIVING BY EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH SOME QPF MOVING INTO THE AREA
BUT MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS WAVE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS MUCH MORE POTENT. THUS WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST
TAPERING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTH
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50+ KTS OUT OF THE NORTH AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD BRING WIND
GUSTS OF 30-40+ MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. AS
FAR AS PRECIP TYPE IS CONCERNED...SHOULD START THE DAY OUT AS RAIN
EVERYWHERE. MODELS ARE FASTER BRINGING IN THE COLD AIR ALOFT THIS
RUN AND TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION BY INTRODUCING A RAIN SNOW MIX
AFTER 21Z APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF I70. IF TREND CONTINUES THIS TIMING
COULD NEED TO BE MOVED UP. WITH THE SYSTEM SPEED A BIT FASTER THIS
SET OF RUNS HAVE DECREASED POPS IN THE WEST DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
A GOOD FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW REACHING THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM. OVERALL...THE COLD
RAIN WITH SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING COMBINED WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
SHOULD MAKE FOR PRETTY MISERABLE CONDITIONS HALLOWEEN EVENING. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE BELOW FREEZING.

THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT LEAVES COLD AIR IN ITS
WAKE WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHILE THE REGIONAL INITIALIZATION WILL NOT BE CHANGED...THIS IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

OVERALL A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS GOING TO CONTINUE. RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE WEATHER. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW THEY HANDLE
THESE DISTURBANCES.

ALSO...INFORMATION FROM THE ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING CENTER SHOWS
HIGH VARIANCE BETWEEN ITS DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE FORECASTS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LAKE EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS AT AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET TODAY WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SITES.
AFTER THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPEAR
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY WILL FALL OFF SHARPLY THIS
EVENING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. AFTER THAT...EXPECT WINDS TO
BE TOO LIGHT TO AFFECT OPERATIONS. BECAUSE OF LOW DEWPOINTS...FOG IS
UNLIKELY TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 291739
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
139 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WITH THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTH BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP. ALSO CUT HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO CLOSER TO
THE RAPID UPDATE MODELS WITH MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTH AND COLD
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. THE REST OF TODAY REMAINS UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT THAT SOME CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING AS AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH. IF CLOUD COVER CLEARS BY TONIGHT THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A DECENT FROST GIVEN THE CORE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AT THAT TIME. MOS BLEND SUPPORTS LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S.
GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND WILL KEEP AREAS OF FROST IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. NOT SURE A FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE IS
WARRANTED...AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. BY THURSDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE STILL
DEPICTING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY AS MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR
AWHILE...BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS STILL PRETTY LIMITED.

A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. SYSTEM LOOKS QUITE DYNAMIC...WITH MODELS INDICATING AN
IMPRESSIVE 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. OVER
THE PAST 5 DAYS MODELS HAVE EVER SO SLOWLY TRENDED COLDER...WETTER
AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO JUST SHY OF
LIKELY FOR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURE WILL COOL
RAPIDLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ALBEIT A COLD RAIN. LINGERING POP
CHANCES SPILL INTO HALLOWEEN EVENING WHERE TEMPERATURES BECOME
RAPIDLY COLD ENOUGH FOR THE FIRST CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE SEASON.
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL 06Z WHEN THE TROUGH
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. IF HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S WASN/T ENOUGH...COUPLED WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND THEN LATER
SNOW SHOWER CHANCES...THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG...POSSIBLY NEARING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THANKS FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET.
INCREASED WINDS TO SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH. THIS
WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY...AND THEN WIND
CHILLS BELOW THE FREEZING MARKING DURING THE EVENING
TRICK-OR-TREATING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHILE THE REGIONAL INITIALIZATION WILL NOT BE CHANGED...THIS IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

OVERALL A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS GOING TO CONTINUE. RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE WEATHER. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW THEY HANDLE
THESE DISTURBANCES.

ALSO...INFORMATION FROM THE ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING CENTER SHOWS
HIGH VARIANCE BETWEEN ITS DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE FORECASTS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LAKE EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS AT AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET TODAY WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SITES.
AFTER THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPEAR
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY WILL FALL OFF SHARPLY THIS
EVENING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. AFTER THAT...EXPECT WINDS TO
BE TOO LIGHT TO AFFECT OPERATIONS. BECAUSE OF LOW DEWPOINTS...FOG IS
UNLIKELY TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 291653
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1253 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WITH THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTH BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP. ALSO CUT HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO CLOSER TO
THE RAPID UPDATE MODELS WITH MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTH AND COLD
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. THE REST OF TODAY REMAINS UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT THAT SOME CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING AS AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH. IF CLOUD COVER CLEARS BY TONIGHT THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A DECENT FROST GIVEN THE CORE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AT THAT TIME. MOS BLEND SUPPORTS LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S.
GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND WILL KEEP AREAS OF FROST IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. NOT SURE A FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE IS
WARRANTED...AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. BY THURSDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE STILL
DEPICTING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY AS MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR
AWHILE...BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS STILL PRETTY LIMITED.

A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. SYSTEM LOOKS QUITE DYNAMIC...WITH MODELS INDICATING AN
IMPRESSIVE 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. OVER
THE PAST 5 DAYS MODELS HAVE EVER SO SLOWLY TRENDED COLDER...WETTER
AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO JUST SHY OF
LIKELY FOR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURE WILL COOL
RAPIDLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ALBEIT A COLD RAIN. LINGERING POP
CHANCES SPILL INTO HALLOWEEN EVENING WHERE TEMPERATURES BECOME
RAPIDLY COLD ENOUGH FOR THE FIRST CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE SEASON.
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL 06Z WHEN THE TROUGH
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. IF HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S WASN/T ENOUGH...COUPLED WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND THEN LATER
SNOW SHOWER CHANCES...THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG...POSSIBLY NEARING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THANKS FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET.
INCREASED WINDS TO SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH. THIS
WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY...AND THEN WIND
CHILLS BELOW THE FREEZING MARKING DURING THE EVENING
TRICK-OR-TREATING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COLD CANADIAN HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE
AREA DURING THE COMING WEEKEND...QUITE A REVERSAL FROM LAST WEEKENDS
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. WHILE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT...HIGHS IN
THE 40S APPEAR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY THE 50S LATER.

MODELS ALSO DEPICT AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND INITIALIZATION HANDLED THIS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LAKE EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS AT AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET TODAY WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SITES.
AFTER THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPEAR
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY WILL FALL OFF SHARPLY THIS
EVENING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. AFTER THAT...EXPECT WINDS TO
BE TOO LIGHT TO AFFECT OPERATIONS. BECAUSE OF LOW DEWPOINTS...FOG IS
UNLIKELY TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS.



&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 291421
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WITH THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTH BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP. ALSO CUT HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO CLOSER TO
THE RAPID UPDATE MODELS WITH MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTH AND COLD
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. THE REST OF TODAY REMAINS UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT THAT SOME CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING AS AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH. IF CLOUD COVER CLEARS BY TONIGHT THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A DECENT FROST GIVEN THE CORE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AT THAT TIME. MOS BLEND SUPPORTS LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S.
GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND WILL KEEP AREAS OF FROST IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. NOT SURE A FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE IS
WARRANTED...AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. BY THURSDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE STILL
DEPICTING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY AS MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR
AWHILE...BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS STILL PRETTY LIMITED.

A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. SYSTEM LOOKS QUITE DYNAMIC...WITH MODELS INDICATING AN
IMPRESSIVE 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. OVER
THE PAST 5 DAYS MODELS HAVE EVER SO SLOWLY TRENDED COLDER...WETTER
AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO JUST SHY OF
LIKELY FOR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURE WILL COOL
RAPIDLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ALBEIT A COLD RAIN. LINGERING POP
CHANCES SPILL INTO HALLOWEEN EVENING WHERE TEMPERATURES BECOME
RAPIDLY COLD ENOUGH FOR THE FIRST CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE SEASON.
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL 06Z WHEN THE TROUGH
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. IF HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S WASN/T ENOUGH...COUPLED WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND THEN LATER
SNOW SHOWER CHANCES...THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG...POSSIBLY NEARING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THANKS FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET.
INCREASED WINDS TO SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH. THIS
WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY...AND THEN WIND
CHILLS BELOW THE FREEZING MARKING DURING THE EVENING
TRICK-OR-TREATING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COLD CANADIAN HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE
AREA DURING THE COMING WEEKEND...QUITE A REVERSAL FROM LAST WEEKENDS
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. WHILE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT...HIGHS IN
THE 40S APPEAR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY THE 50S LATER.

MODELS ALSO DEPICT AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND INITIALIZATION HANDLED THIS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

EXPECT THAT LOW END VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT THAT THE MVFR CEILINGS FURTHER NORTH WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE AREA. THESE CEILINGS WILL LAST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BE WESTERLY EARLY...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS INTO THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20KT RANGE
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD/JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 291414
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1014 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT THAT SOME CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING AS AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH. IF CLOUD COVER CLEARS BY TONIGHT THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A DECENT FROST GIVEN THE CORE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AT THAT TIME. MOS BLEND SUPPORTS LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S.
GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND WILL KEEP AREAS OF FROST IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. NOT SURE A FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE IS
WARRANTED...AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. BY THURSDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE STILL
DEPICTING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY AS MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR
AWHILE...BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS STILL PRETTY LIMITED.

A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. SYSTEM LOOKS QUITE DYNAMIC...WITH MODELS INDICATING AN
IMPRESSIVE 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. OVER
THE PAST 5 DAYS MODELS HAVE EVER SO SLOWLY TRENDED COLDER...WETTER
AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO JUST SHY OF
LIKELY FOR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURE WILL COOL
RAPIDLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ALBEIT A COLD RAIN. LINGERING POP
CHANCES SPILL INTO HALLOWEEN EVENING WHERE TEMPERATURES BECOME
RAPIDLY COLD ENOUGH FOR THE FIRST CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE SEASON.
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL 06Z WHEN THE TROUGH
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. IF HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S WASN/T ENOUGH...COUPLED WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND THEN LATER
SNOW SHOWER CHANCES...THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG...POSSIBLY NEARING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THANKS FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET.
INCREASED WINDS TO SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH. THIS
WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY...AND THEN WIND
CHILLS BELOW THE FREEZING MARKING DURING THE EVENING
TRICK-OR-TREATING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COLD CANADIAN HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE
AREA DURING THE COMING WEEKEND...QUITE A REVERSAL FROM LAST WEEKENDS
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. WHILE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT...HIGHS IN
THE 40S APPEAR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY THE 50S LATER.

MODELS ALSO DEPICT AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND INITIALIZATION HANDLED THIS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

EXPECT THAT LOW END VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT THAT THE MVFR CEILINGS FURTHER NORTH WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE AREA. THESE CEILINGS WILL LAST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BE WESTERLY EARLY...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS INTO THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20KT RANGE
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.



&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD/JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 291128
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
728 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT THAT SOME CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING AS AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH. IF CLOUD COVER CLEARS BY TONIGHT THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A DECENT FROST GIVEN THE CORE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AT THAT TIME. MOS BLEND SUPPORTS LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S.
GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND WILL KEEP AREAS OF FROST IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. NOT SURE A FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE IS
WARRANTED...AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. BY THURSDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE STILL
DEPICTING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY AS MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR
AWHILE...BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS STILL PRETTY LIMITED.

A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. SYSTEM LOOKS QUITE DYNAMIC...WITH MODELS INDICATING AN
IMPRESSIVE 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. OVER
THE PAST 5 DAYS MODELS HAVE EVER SO SLOWLY TRENDED COLDER...WETTER
AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO JUST SHY OF
LIKELY FOR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURE WILL COOL
RAPIDLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ALBEIT A COLD RAIN. LINGERING POP
CHANCES SPILL INTO HALLOWEEN EVENING WHERE TEMPERATURES BECOME
RAPIDLY COLD ENOUGH FOR THE FIRST CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE SEASON.
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL 06Z WHEN THE TROUGH
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. IF HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S WASN/T ENOUGH...COUPLED WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND THEN LATER
SNOW SHOWER CHANCES...THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG...POSSIBLY NEARING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THANKS FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET.
INCREASED WINDS TO SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH. THIS
WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY...AND THEN WIND
CHILLS BELOW THE FREEZING MARKING DURING THE EVENING
TRICK-OR-TREATING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COLD CANADIAN HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE
AREA DURING THE COMING WEEKEND...QUITE A REVERSAL FROM LAST WEEKENDS
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. WHILE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT...HIGHS IN
THE 40S APPEAR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY THE 50S LATER.

MODELS ALSO DEPICT AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND INITIALIZATION HANDLED THIS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 728 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

EXPECT THAT LOW END VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT THAT THE MVFR CEILINGS FURTHER NORTH WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE AREA. THESE CEILINGS WILL LAST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BE WESTERLY EARLY...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS INTO THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20KT RANGE
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 290717
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
317 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT THAT SOME CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING AS AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH. IF CLOUD COVER CLEARS BY TONIGHT THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A DECENT FROST GIVEN THE CORE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AT THAT TIME. MOS BLEND SUPPORTS LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S.
GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND WILL KEEP AREAS OF FROST IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. NOT SURE A FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE IS
WARRANTED...AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. BY THURSDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE STILL
DEPICTING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY AS MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR
AWHILE...BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS STILL PRETTY LIMITED.

A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. SYSTEM LOOKS QUITE DYNAMIC...WITH MODELS INDICATING AN
IMPRESSIVE 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. OVER
THE PAST 5 DAYS MODELS HAVE EVER SO SLOWLY TRENDED COLDER...WETTER
AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO JUST SHY OF
LIKELY FOR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURE WILL COOL
RAPIDLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ALBEIT A COLD RAIN. LINGERING POP
CHANCES SPILL INTO HALLOWEEN EVENING WHERE TEMPERATURES BECOME
RAPIDLY COLD ENOUGH FOR THE FIRST CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE SEASON.
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL 06Z WHEN THE TROUGH
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. IF HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S WASN/T ENOUGH...COUPLED WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND THEN LATER
SNOW SHOWER CHANCES...THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG...POSSIBLY NEARING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THANKS FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET.
INCREASED WINDS TO SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH. THIS
WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY...AND THEN WIND
CHILLS BELOW THE FREEZING MARKING DURING THE EVENING
TRICK-OR-TREATING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COLD CANADIAN HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE
AREA DURING THE COMING WEEKEND...QUITE A REVERSAL FROM LAST WEEKENDS
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. WHILE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT...HIGHS IN
THE 40S APPEAR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY THE 50S LATER.

MODELS ALSO DEPICT AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND INITIALIZATION HANDLED THIS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH CLOUDS LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DEPART OFF TO THE
EAST QUICKLY LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE DAY AND WITH SHALLOW INSTABILITY PRESENT ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH...ANTICIPATE A HEALTHY CU/STRATOCU FIELD WILL DEVELOP
BY MIDDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER TO NORTHWEST BY LATE DAY. MAY SEE WINDS GUST AT KIND AND
KLAF DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

CLOUDS WILL SCATTER TOWARDS SUNSET AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL VEER TO N/NW AND BECOME LIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 290649
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
249 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...

THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 944 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

UPDATE...
DECREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NOSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD MAY DRIFT OVER
THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PARTS OF NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE BULK OF THE COLD ADVECTION CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN MIDWEST WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALTHOUGH THE EDGE MAY SKIRT THE NORTHERN ZONES.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS FOR TONIGHT LOOK
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY CLOUDS
DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS 850MB
THERMAL TROUGH PASSES BY. IF CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES EARLY ENOUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT FROST GIVEN THE
CORE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD AT THAT TIME.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT AT THIS POINT LOOKS RATHER WEAK...BUT THE
PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER DOES COME CLOSE TO SATURATION. WILL PUT
SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. SYSTEM LOOKS QUITE DYNAMIC...WITH MODELS INDICATING A 75-80
KT MID LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY TO COVER THIS SYSTEM. DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...850MB TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY DOWN
TO -5C BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
PELLETS OR SLEET SHOWERS TOWARDS FRIDAY EVENING.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS MAY BE A LITTLE ON
THE WARM SIDE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WILL NUDGE DOWN THE HIGHS A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COLD CANADIAN HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE
AREA DURING THE COMING WEEKEND...QUITE A REVERSAL FROM LAST WEEKENDS
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. WHILE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT...HIGHS IN
THE 40S APPEAR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY THE 50S LATER.

MODELS ALSO DEPICT AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND INITIALIZATION HANDLED THIS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH CLOUDS LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DEPART OFF TO THE
EAST QUICKLY LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE DAY AND WITH SHALLOW INSTABILITY PRESENT ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH...ANTICIPATE A HEALTHY CU/STRATOCU FIELD WILL DEVELOP
BY MIDDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER TO NORTHWEST BY LATE DAY. MAY SEE WINDS GUST AT KIND AND
KLAF DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

CLOUDS WILL SCATTER TOWARDS SUNSET AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL VEER TO N/NW AND BECOME LIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/TDUD
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 290400
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1200 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 944 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

UPDATE...
DECREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NOSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD MAY DRIFT OVER
THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PARTS OF NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE BULK OF THE COLD ADVECTION CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN MIDWEST WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALTHOUGH THE EDGE MAY SKIRT THE NORTHERN ZONES.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS FOR TONIGHT LOOK
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY CLOUDS
DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS 850MB
THERMAL TROUGH PASSES BY. IF CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES EARLY ENOUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT FROST GIVEN THE
CORE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD AT THAT TIME.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT AT THIS POINT LOOKS RATHER WEAK...BUT THE
PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER DOES COME CLOSE TO SATURATION. WILL PUT
SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. SYSTEM LOOKS QUITE DYNAMIC...WITH MODELS INDICATING A 75-80
KT MID LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY TO COVER THIS SYSTEM. DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...850MB TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY DOWN
TO -5C BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
PELLETS OR SLEET SHOWERS TOWARDS FRIDAY EVENING.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS MAY BE A LITTLE ON
THE WARM SIDE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WILL NUDGE DOWN THE HIGHS A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BOOKEND THIS PERIOD WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE.

ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A LARGE...DEEP TROUGH PLUNGING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING AND MOISTURE
REMAIN QUESTIONABLE AT THIS POINT AND MOST MOISTURE LOOKS TO PASS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM PRIOR TO FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE
STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSING ALOFT AMID THE DEEP TROUGH...A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OR EVEN A FLURRY MAY BE POSSIBLE. SURFACE TEMPS
LOOK TO FALL INTO THE 30S ON FRIDAY EVENING AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO
NEAR -4C. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE A FLAKE OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

STRONG RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE AIR MAS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES...SLOWLY CREEPING BACK TOWARD NORMALS AS THE DOME OF
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST.

BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS THE RIDGE
PASSES TO OUR EAST. A WETTER PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MOISTURE
ARRIVING. WITH FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT IN PLACE...SEVERAL
INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BECOMING TOGETHER FOR PRECIP AND HAVE
INCLUDED CHANCES THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH CLOUDS LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DEPART OFF TO THE
EAST QUICKLY LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE DAY AND WITH SHALLOW INSTABILITY PRESENT ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH...ANTICIPATE A HEALTHY CU/STRATOCU FIELD WILL DEVELOP
BY MIDDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER TO NORTHWEST BY LATE DAY. MAY SEE WINDS GUST AT KIND AND
KLAF DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

CLOUDS WILL SCATTER TOWARDS SUNSET AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL VEER TO N/NW AND BECOME LIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/TDUD
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
















000
FXUS63 KIND 290212
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1012 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 944 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

UPDATE...
DECREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NOSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD MAY DRIFT OVER
THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PARTS OF NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE BULK OF THE COLD ADVECTION CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN MIDWEST WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALTHOUGH THE EDGE MAY SKIRT THE NORTHERN ZONES.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS FOR TONIGHT LOOK
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY CLOUDS
DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS 850MB
THERMAL TROUGH PASSES BY. IF CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES EARLY ENOUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT FROST GIVEN THE
CORE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD AT THAT TIME.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT AT THIS POINT LOOKS RATHER WEAK...BUT THE
PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER DOES COME CLOSE TO SATURATION. WILL PUT
SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. SYSTEM LOOKS QUITE DYNAMIC...WITH MODELS INDICATING A 75-80
KT MID LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY TO COVER THIS SYSTEM. DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...850MB TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY DOWN
TO -5C BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
PELLETS OR SLEET SHOWERS TOWARDS FRIDAY EVENING.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS MAY BE A LITTLE ON
THE WARM SIDE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WILL NUDGE DOWN THE HIGHS A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BOOKEND THIS PERIOD WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE.

ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A LARGE...DEEP TROUGH PLUNGING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING AND MOISTURE
REMAIN QUESTIONABLE AT THIS POINT AND MOST MOISTURE LOOKS TO PASS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM PRIOR TO FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE
STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSING ALOFT AMID THE DEEP TROUGH...A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OR EVEN A FLURRY MAY BE POSSIBLE. SURFACE TEMPS
LOOK TO FALL INTO THE 30S ON FRIDAY EVENING AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO
NEAR -4C. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE A FLAKE OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

STRONG RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE AIR MAS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES...SLOWLY CREEPING BACK TOWARD NORMALS AS THE DOME OF
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST.

BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS THE RIDGE
PASSES TO OUR EAST. A WETTER PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MOISTURE
ARRIVING. WITH FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT IN PLACE...SEVERAL
INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BECOMING TOGETHER FOR PRECIP AND HAVE
INCLUDED CHANCES THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290300Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1012 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. TWEAKED WINDS AT KIND BASED ON OBS OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
NEEDED FOR EVENING UPDATE.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE SKIES BECOME MAINLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KTS OVERNIGHT.
STRATOCU ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN INDIANA LATE TONIGHT BUT
SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN NORTH OF KLAF THROUGH DAYBREAK.

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
AND WITH SHALLOW INSTABILITY PRESENT ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH...ANTICIPATE A HEALTHY CU/STRATOCU FIELD WILL
DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY VEER TO NORTHWEST BY LATE DAY. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
TOWARDS SUNSET AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/TDUD
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 290202
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1002 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 944 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

UPDATE...
DECREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NOSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD MAY DRIFT OVER
THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PARTS OF NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE BULK OF THE COLD ADVECTION CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN MIDWEST WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALTHOUGH THE EDGE MAY SKIRT THE NORTHERN ZONES.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS FOR TONIGHT LOOK
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY CLOUDS
DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS 850MB
THERMAL TROUGH PASSES BY. IF CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES EARLY ENOUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT FROST GIVEN THE
CORE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD AT THAT TIME.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT AT THIS POINT LOOKS RATHER WEAK...BUT THE
PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER DOES COME CLOSE TO SATURATION. WILL PUT
SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. SYSTEM LOOKS QUITE DYNAMIC...WITH MODELS INDICATING A 75-80
KT MID LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY TO COVER THIS SYSTEM. DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...850MB TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY DOWN
TO -5C BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
PELLETS OR SLEET SHOWERS TOWARDS FRIDAY EVENING.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS MAY BE A LITTLE ON
THE WARM SIDE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WILL NUDGE DOWN THE HIGHS A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BOOKEND THIS PERIOD WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE.

ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A LARGE...DEEP TROUGH PLUNGING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING AND MOISTURE
REMAIN QUESTIONABLE AT THIS POINT AND MOST MOISTURE LOOKS TO PASS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM PRIOR TO FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE
STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSING ALOFT AMID THE DEEP TROUGH...A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OR EVEN A FLURRY MAY BE POSSIBLE. SURFACE TEMPS
LOOK TO FALL INTO THE 30S ON FRIDAY EVENING AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO
NEAR -4C. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE A FLAKE OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

STRONG RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE AIR MAS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES...SLOWLY CREEPING BACK TOWARD NORMALS AS THE DOME OF
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST.

BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS THE RIDGE
PASSES TO OUR EAST. A WETTER PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MOISTURE
ARRIVING. WITH FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT IN PLACE...SEVERAL
INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BECOMING TOGETHER FOR PRECIP AND HAVE
INCLUDED CHANCES THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 644 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE SKIES BECOME MAINLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KTS OVERNIGHT.
STRATOCU ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN INDIANA LATE TONIGHT BUT
SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN NORTH OF KLAF THROUGH DAYBREAK.

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
AND WITH SHALLOW INSTABILITY PRESENT ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH...ANTICIPATE A HEALTHY CU/STRATOCU FIELD WILL
DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY VEER TO NORTHWEST BY LATE DAY. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
TOWARDS SUNSET AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/TDUD
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

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