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000
FXUS63 KIND 181057
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
657 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
MORNING WITH JUST A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN REESTABLISH WITH DRY PLEASANT WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STEADILY WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIN
BROKEN AXIS OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS EXISTS WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S AT 07Z.

FRONT HAS LOOKED LESS AND LESS IMPRESSIVE AND NOW IS LIKELY TO
COMPLETELY WASH OUT TODAY AS IT RUNS INTO DRIER AIR AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EAST OF THE REGION. AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS NORTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TRACK INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING
WITH THE REMNANT SURFACE LOW...OTHERWISE EXPECT THE MID CLOUDS WILL
BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THE BOUNDARY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE IN THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS BUT POTENTIAL IS SO REMOTE THAT IT REALLY IS
NOT WORTH ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
POPS FOR TODAY AS A RESULT.

AXIS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHING AS IT
DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY
TRANSLATE TO SCATTERED CU DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL
CLEAR INTO THE EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

CONSALL GUIDANCE LINED UP WITH LOW LEVEL THERMALS WELL...WITH HIGHS
RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH A MILD DRY
EASTER WEEKEND SETTING UP UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN
FIRM CONTROL OVER OHIO VALLEY WEATHER AS IT TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND
AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A PREDOMINANT E/NE FLOW
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WILL ADVECT DRY AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPS SATURDAY AND COOL CLEAR
NIGHTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY...WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
FLOW VEERS TO SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI.

TEMPS...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL DIP BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST. DESPITE THE
COOLER 850MB TEMPS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL
COMPENSATE WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 60S. WARM ADVECTION ARRIVES
SUNDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE 70S. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER METMOS FOR HIGHS. UNDERCUT
MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT/SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETTING UP WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TYPICAL COOL SPOTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA MAY MANAGE TO SNEAK
INTO THE UPPER 30S BOTH NIGHTS. EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT OFF THE CITY
CENTER WILL KEEP LOWS AT KIND HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A TYPICAL SPRING WEEK FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA...WITH TWO SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK AND
THEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL. IN BETWEEN...NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE SUNSHINE CAN BE
EXPECTED AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE REGION. ALLBLEND HANDLED THE DETAILS VERY WELL AND ASIDE FROM A
FEW TWEAKS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEAK COLD FRONT IS ON ITS WAY THROUGH THE SITES THIS MORNING. ONLY
IMPACT FROM THIS HAS BEEN AN UPTICK IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD...AND THIS
IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE. SHOULD HIT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES TODAY
SO HAVE INCLUDED SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS...WHICH WILL DISSIPATE IN
TYPICAL FASHION THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND
THEN NORTHERLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW
10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 180813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
413 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
MORNING WITH JUST A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN REESTABLISH WITH DRY PLEASANT WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STEADILY WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIN
BROKEN AXIS OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS EXISTS WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S AT 07Z.

FRONT HAS LOOKED LESS AND LESS IMPRESSIVE AND NOW IS LIKELY TO
COMPLETELY WASH OUT TODAY AS IT RUNS INTO DRIER AIR AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EAST OF THE REGION. AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS NORTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TRACK INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING
WITH THE REMNANT SURFACE LOW...OTHERWISE EXPECT THE MID CLOUDS WILL
BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THE BOUNDARY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE IN THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS BUT POTENTIAL IS SO REMOTE THAT IT REALLY IS
NOT WORTH ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
POPS FOR TODAY AS A RESULT.

AXIS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHING AS IT
DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY
TRANSLATE TO SCATTERED CU DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL
CLEAR INTO THE EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

CONSALL GUIDANCE LINED UP WITH LOW LEVEL THERMALS WELL...WITH HIGHS
RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH A MILD DRY
EASTER WEEKEND SETTING UP UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN
FIRM CONTROL OVER OHIO VALLEY WEATHER AS IT TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND
AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A PREDOMINANT E/NE FLOW
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WILL ADVECT DRY AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPS SATURDAY AND COOL CLEAR
NIGHTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY...WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
FLOW VEERS TO SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI.

TEMPS...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL DIP BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST. DESPITE THE
COOLER 850MB TEMPS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL
COMPENSATE WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 60S. WARM ADVECTION ARRIVES
SUNDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE 70S. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER METMOS FOR HIGHS. UNDERCUT
MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT/SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETTING UP WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TYPICAL COOL SPOTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA MAY MANAGE TO SNEAK
INTO THE UPPER 30S BOTH NIGHTS. EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT OFF THE CITY
CENTER WILL KEEP LOWS AT KIND HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A TYPICAL SPRING WEEK FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA...WITH TWO SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK AND
THEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL. IN BETWEEN...NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE SUNSHINE CAN BE
EXPECTED AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE REGION. ALLBLEND HANDLED THE DETAILS VERY WELL AND ASIDE FROM A
FEW TWEAKS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/09Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN ACROSS ILLINOIS TO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW WEAK
SUBSIDENCE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE. RADAR MOSAICS SHOW PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING
ACROSS MISSOURI. OBS FAIL TO SHOW ANY MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM...THUS
WILL TREND TOWARD VFR CIGS AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JP/NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 180738
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
328 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
MORNING WITH JUST A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN REESTABLISH WITH DRY PLEASANT WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STEADILY WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIN
BROKEN AXIS OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS EXISTS WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S AT 07Z.

FRONT HAS LOOKED LESS AND LESS IMPRESSIVE AND NOW IS LIKELY TO
COMPLETELY WASH OUT TODAY AS IT RUNS INTO DRIER AIR AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EAST OF THE REGION. AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS NORTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TRACK INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING
WITH THE REMNANT SURFACE LOW...OTHERWISE EXPECT THE MID CLOUDS WILL
BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THE BOUNDARY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE IN THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS BUT POTENTIAL IS SO REMOTE THAT IT REALLY IS
NOT WORTH ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
POPS FOR TODAY AS A RESULT.

AXIS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHING AS IT
DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY
TRANSLATE TO SCATTERED CU DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL
CLEAR INTO THE EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

CONSALL GUIDANCE LINED UP WITH LOW LEVEL THERMALS WELL...WITH HIGHS
RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH A MILD DRY
EASTER WEEKEND SETTING UP UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN
FIRM CONTROL OVER OHIO VALLEY WEATHER AS IT TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND
AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A PREDOMINANT E/NE FLOW
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WILL ADVECT DRY AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPS SATURDAY AND COOL CLEAR
NIGHTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY...WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
FLOW VEERS TO SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI.

TEMPS...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL DIP BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST. DESPITE THE
COOLER 850MB TEMPS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL
COMPENSATE WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 60S. WARM ADVECTION ARRIVES
SUNDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE 70S. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER METMOS FOR HIGHS. UNDERCUT
MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT/SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETTING UP WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TYPICAL COOL SPOTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA MAY MANAGE TO SNEAK
INTO THE UPPER 30S BOTH NIGHTS. EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT OFF THE CITY
CENTER WILL KEEP LOWS AT KIND HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A TYPICAL SPRING WEEK FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA...WITH TWO SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK AND
THEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL. IN BETWEEN...NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE SUNSHINE CAN BE
EXPECTED AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE REGION. ALLBLEND HANDLED THE DETAILS VERY WELL AND ASIDE FROM A
FEW TWEAKS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180600Z TAFS ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN ACROSS ILLINOIS TO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW WEAK
SUBSIDENCE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE. RADAR MOSAICS SHOW PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING
ACROSS MISSOURI. OBS FAIL TO SHOW ANY MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM...THUS
WILL TREND TOWARD VFR CIGS AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 180728
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
328 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
MORNING WITH JUST A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN REESTABLISH WITH DRY PLEASANT WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STEADILY WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIN
BROKEN AXIS OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS EXISTS WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S AT 07Z.

FRONT HAS LOOKED LESS AND LESS IMPRESSIVE AND NOW IS LIKELY TO
COMPLETELY WASH OUT TODAY AS IT RUNS INTO DRIER AIR AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EAST OF THE REGION. AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS NORTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TRACK INTO THE LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING
WITH THE REMNANT SURFACE LOW...OTHERWISE EXPECT THE MID CLOUDS WILL
BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THE BOUNDARY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE IN THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS BUT POTENTIAL IS SO REMOTE THAT IT REALLY IS
NOT WORTH ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
POPS FOR TODAY AS A RESULT.

AXIS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHING AS IT
DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY
TRANSLATE TO SCATTERED CU DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL
CLEAR INTO THE EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

CONSALL GUIDANCE LINED UP WITH LOW LEVEL THERMALS WELL...WITH HIGHS
RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH A MILD DRY
EASTER WEEKEND SETTING UP UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN
FIRM CONTROL OVER OHIO VALLEY WEATHER AS IT TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND
AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A PREDOMINANT E/NE FLOW
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WILL ADVECT DRY AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPS SATURDAY AND COOL CLEAR
NIGHTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY...WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
FLOW VEERS TO SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI.

TEMPS...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL DIP BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST. DESPITE THE
COOLER 850MB TEMPS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL
COMPENSATE WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 60S. WARM ADVECTION ARRIVES
SUNDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE 70S. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER METMOS FOR HIGHS. UNDERCUT
MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT/SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETTING UP WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TYPICAL COOL SPOTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA MAY MANAGE TO SNEAK
INTO THE UPPER 30S BOTH NIGHTS. EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT OFF THE CITY
CENTER WILL KEEP LOWS AT KIND HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A TYPICAL SPRING WEEK FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA...WITH TWO SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK AND
THEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL. IN BETWEEN...NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE SUNSHINE CAN BE
EXPECTED AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE REGION. ALLBLEND HANDLED THE DETAILS VERY WELL AND ASIDE FROM A
FEW TWEAKS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180600Z TAFS ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN ACROSS ILLINOIS TO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW WEAK
SUBSIDENCE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE. RADAR MOSAICS SHOW PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING
ACROSS MISSOURI. OBS FAIL TO SHOW ANY MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM...THUS
WILL TREND TOWARD VFR CIGS AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 180650
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
250 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR WEST AND NORTH LATE
TONIGHT AND MOST AREAS FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES SUNDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSHOWER.  ONE OF THESE WILL OCCUR AROUND MONDAY AND
THE OTHER ONE WILL BE JUST AFTER DAY 7.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 943 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

0140Z UPDATE...ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR MODIFICATIONS BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS THIS EVENING. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION.  RADAR INDICATES FRONT IS
PRESENTLY DRY. HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT.   WILL CONTINUE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE
MUCH OF ANYTHING ANYWHERE ELSE...BUT FOR CONSISTENCY WILL CONTINUE
20 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK
FOR NOW.

THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY.  ONCE AGAIN
THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION. MODELS KEY ON THE
BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY AND WITH
ALL AREAS BEING DRY BY LATE FRIDAY.  ONCE AGAIN KEPT A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE MOST AREAS MAINLY BECAUSE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS ALREADY IN
THE FORECAST.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT NEAR A MOS BLEND MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND
CUT TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND WEAK COOL
ADVECTION BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

IT WILL BE DRY AND MILD THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SUNDAY.  MODELS INDICATE A VERY AIRMASS WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES START OUT AT +5 TO +6 CELSIUS SATURDAY
WARMING TO ABOUT +10 CELSIUS BY SUNDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN RATHER
MILD TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER AND OVERALL THIS APPEARS
REASONABLE. HOWEVER MIN TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN MOST CASES CUT LOW TEMPERATURES 3 TO 4
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A TYPICAL SPRING WEEK FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA...WITH TWO SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK AND
THEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL. IN BETWEEN...NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE SUNSHINE CAN BE
EXPECTED AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE REGION. ALLBLEND HANDLED THE DETAILS VERY WELL AND ASIDE FROM A
FEW TWEAKS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180600Z TAFS ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN ACROSS ILLINOIS TO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW WEAK
SUBSIDENCE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE. RADAR MOSIACS SHOW PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING
ACROSS MISSOURI. OBS FAIL TO SHOW ANY MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM...THUS
WILL TREND TOWARD VFR CIGS AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 180521
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
121 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR WEST AND NORTH LATE
TONIGHT AND MOST AREAS FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES SUNDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSHOWER.  ONE OF THESE WILL OCCUR AROUND MONDAY AND
THE OTHER ONE WILL BE JUST AFTER DAY 7.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 943 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

0140Z UPDATE...ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR MODIFICATIONS BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS THIS EVENING. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION.  RADAR INDICATES FRONT IS
PRESENTLY DRY. HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT.   WILL CONTINUE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE
MUCH OF ANYTHING ANYWHERE ELSE...BUT FOR CONSISTENCY WILL CONTINUE
20 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK
FOR NOW.

THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY.  ONCE AGAIN
THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION. MODELS KEY ON THE
BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY AND WITH
ALL AREAS BEING DRY BY LATE FRIDAY.  ONCE AGAIN KEPT A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE MOST AREAS MAINLY BECAUSE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS ALREADY IN
THE FORECAST.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT NEAR A MOS BLEND MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND
CUT TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND WEAK COOL
ADVECTION BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

IT WILL BE DRY AND MILD THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SUNDAY.  MODELS INDICATE A VERY AIRMASS WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES START OUT AT +5 TO +6 CELSIUS SATURDAY
WARMING TO ABOUT +10 CELSIUS BY SUNDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN RATHER
MILD TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER AND OVERALL THIS APPEARS
REASONABLE. HOWEVER MIN TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN MOST CASES CUT LOW TEMPERATURES 3 TO 4
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTENDED TIME FRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY
WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME
LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIME FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180600Z TAFS ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN ACROSS ILLINOIS TO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW WEAK
SUBSIDENCE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE. RADAR MOSIACS SHOW PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING
ACROSS MISSOURI. OBS FAIL TO SHOW ANY MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM...THUS
WILL TREND TOWARD VFR CIGS AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 180211
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1011 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR WEST AND NORTH LATE
TONIGHT AND MOST AREAS FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES SUNDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSHOWER.  ONE OF THESE WILL OCCUR AROUND MONDAY AND
THE OTHER ONE WILL BE JUST AFTER DAY 7.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 943 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

0140Z UPDATE...ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR MODIFICATIONS BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS THIS EVENING. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION.  RADAR INDICATES FRONT IS
PRESENTLY DRY. HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT.   WILL CONTINUE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE
MUCH OF ANYTHING ANYWHERE ELSE...BUT FOR CONSISTENCY WILL CONTINUE
20 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK
FOR NOW.

THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY.  ONCE AGAIN
THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION. MODELS KEY ON THE
BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY AND WITH
ALL AREAS BEING DRY BY LATE FRIDAY.  ONCE AGAIN KEPT A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE MOST AREAS MAINLY BECAUSE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS ALREADY IN
THE FORECAST.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT NEAR A MOS BLEND MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND
CUT TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND WEAK COOL
ADVECTION BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

IT WILL BE DRY AND MILD THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SUNDAY.  MODELS INDICATE A VERY AIRMASS WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES START OUT AT +5 TO +6 CELSIUS SATURDAY
WARMING TO ABOUT +10 CELSIUS BY SUNDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN RATHER
MILD TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER AND OVERALL THIS APPEARS
REASONABLE. HOWEVER MIN TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN MOST CASES CUT LOW TEMPERATURES 3 TO 4
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTENDED TIME FRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY
WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME
LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIME FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTENDED TIME FRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY
WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME
LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIME FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180300Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AS
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO ADVECT TOWARD THE TAF SITES. NO
CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 180000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN...ACROSS ILLINOIS TO CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THIS PERIOD. TIME HEIGHTS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED FORCING AND AMID LIMITED
MOISTURE. THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD JUST SOME VFR CEILINGS AS THESE
FEATURES PASS AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE FRONT ON FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 180147
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
947 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR WEST AND NORTH LATE
TONIGHT AND MOST AREAS FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES SUNDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSHOWER.  ONE OF THESE WILL OCCUR AROUND MONDAY AND
THE OTHER ONE WILL BE JUST AFTER DAY 7.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 943 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

0140Z UPDATE...ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR MODIFICATIONS BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS THIS EVENING. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION.  RADAR INDICATES FRONT IS
PRESENTLY DRY. HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT.   WILL CONTINUE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE
MUCH OF ANYTHING ANYWHERE ELSE...BUT FOR CONSISTENCY WILL CONTINUE
20 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK
FOR NOW.

THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY.  ONCE AGAIN
THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION. MODELS KEY ON THE
BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY AND WITH
ALL AREAS BEING DRY BY LATE FRIDAY.  ONCE AGAIN KEPT A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE MOST AREAS MAINLY BECAUSE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS ALREADY IN
THE FORECAST.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT NEAR A MOS BLEND MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND
CUT TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND WEAK COOL
ADVECTION BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

IT WILL BE DRY AND MILD THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SUNDAY.  MODELS INDICATE A VERY AIRMASS WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES START OUT AT +5 TO +6 CELSIUS SATURDAY
WARMING TO ABOUT +10 CELSIUS BY SUNDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN RATHER
MILD TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER AND OVERALL THIS APPEARS
REASONABLE. HOWEVER MIN TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN MOST CASES CUT LOW TEMPERATURES 3 TO 4
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTENDED TIME FRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY
WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME
LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIME FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTENDED TIME FRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY
WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME
LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIME FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN...ACROSS ILLINOIS TO CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THIS PERIOD. TIME HEIGHTS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED FORCING AND AMID LIMITED
MOISTURE. THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD JUST SOME VFR CEILINGS AS THESE
FEATURES PASS AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE FRONT ON FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 172313
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
713 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR WEST AND NORTH LATE
TONIGHT AND MOST AREAS FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES SUNDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSHOWER.  ONE OF THESE WILL OCCUR AROUND MONDAY AND
THE OTHER ONE WILL BE JUST AFTER DAY 7.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION.  RADAR INDICATES FRONT IS
PRESENTLY DRY. HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT.   WILL CONTINUE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE
MUCH OF ANYTHING ANYWHERE ELSE...BUT FOR CONSISTENCY WILL CONTINUE
20 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK
FOR NOW.

THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY.  ONCE AGAIN
THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION. MODELS KEY ON THE
BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY AND WITH
ALL AREAS BEING DRY BY LATE FRIDAY.  ONCE AGAIN KEPT A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE MOST AREAS MAINLY BECAUSE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS ALREADY IN
THE FORECAST.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT NEAR A MOS BLEND MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND
CUT TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND WEAK COOL
ADVECTION BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

IT WILL BE DRY AND MILD THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SUNDAY.  MODELS INDICATE A VERY AIRMASS WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES START OUT AT +5 TO +6 CELSIUS SATURDAY
WARMING TO ABOUT +10 CELSIUS BY SUNDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN RATHER
MILD TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER AND OVERALL THIS APPEARS
REASONABLE. HOWEVER MIN TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN MOST CASES CUT LOW TEMPERATURES 3 TO 4
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTENDED TIME FRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY
WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME
LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIME FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTENDED TIME FRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY
WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME
LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIME FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN...ACROSS ILLINOIS TO CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THIS PERIOD. TIME HEIGHTS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED FORCING AND AMID LIMITED
MOISTURE. THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD JUST SOME VFR CEILINGS AS THESE
FEATURES PASS AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE FRONT ON FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 172033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
433 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR WEST AND NORTH LATE
TONIGHT AND MOST AREAS FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES SUNDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSHOWER.  ONE OF THESE WILL OCCUR AROUND MONDAY AND
THE OTHER ONE WILL BE JUST AFTER DAY 7.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION.  RADAR INDICATES FRONT IS
PRESENTLY DRY. HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT.   WILL CONTINUE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE
MUCH OF ANYTHING ANYWHERE ELSE...BUT FOR CONSISTENCY WILL CONTINUE
20 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK
FOR NOW.

THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY.  ONCE AGAIN
THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION. MODELS KEY ON THE
BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY AND WITH
ALL AREAS BEING DRY BY LATE FRIDAY.  ONCE AGAIN KEPT A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE MOST AREAS MAINLY BECAUSE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS ALREADY IN
THE FORECAST.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT NEAR A MOS BLEND MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND
CUT TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND WEAK COOL
ADVECTION BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

IT WILL BE DRY AND MILD THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SUNDAY.  MODELS INDICATE A VERY AIRMASS WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES START OUT AT +5 TO +6 CELSIUS SATURDAY
WARMING TO ABOUT +10 CELSIUS BY SUNDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN RATHER
MILD TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER AND OVERALL THIS APPEARS
REASONABLE. HOWEVER MIN TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN MOST CASES CUT LOW TEMPERATURES 3 TO 4
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTENDED TIME FRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY
WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME
LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIME FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTENDED TIME FRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY
WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME
LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIME FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 172100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CI OVER THE TAF SITES. ANOTHER AREA OF MIDDLE
AND HIGH CLOUDS WAS FOUND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO OKLAHOMA AND WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. THESE CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS
TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME VFR CIGS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 171800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MODEL DATA AND THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR INDICATES OCCASIONAL SURFACE
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS FROM 190-220 DEGREES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ENDING WITH SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...MAY SEE SOME CLOUD COVER BASED AROUND 050 DEVELOPING
TOWARDS OR AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE KLAF AREA. NO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 180600Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 171839
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
240 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.
&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR WEST AND NORTH LATE
TONIGHT AND MOST AREAS FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES SUNDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSHOWER.  ONE OF THESE WILL OCCUR AROUND MONDAY AND
THE OTHER ONE WILL BE JUST AFTER DAY 7.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION.  RADAR INDICATES FRONT IS
PRESENTLY DRY. HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT.   WILL CONTINUE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE
MUCH OF ANYTHING ANYWHERE ELSE...BUT FOR CONSISTENCY WILL CONTINUE
20 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK
FOR NOW.

THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY.  ONCE AGAIN
THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION. MODELS KEY ON THE
BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY AND WITH
ALL AREAS BEING DRY BY LATE FRIDAY.  ONCE AGAIN KEPT A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE MOST AREAS MAINLY BECAUSE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS ALREADY IN
THE FORECAST.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT NEAR A MOS BLEND MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND
CUT TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND WEAK COOL
ADVECTION BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

IT WILL BE DRY AND MILD THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SUNDAY.  MODELS INDICATE A VERY AIRMASS WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES START OUT AT +5 TO +6 CELSIUS SATURDAY
WARMING TO ABOUT +10 CELSIUS BY SUNDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN RATHER
MILD TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER AND OVERALL THIS APPEARS
REASONABLE. HOWEVER MIN TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN MOST CASES CUT LOW TEMPERATURES 3 TO 4
DEGREES.


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY
WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME
LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU APR 76 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE DATA SUGGEST AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AROUND NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS TO COVER THE PASSAGE
OF THIS SYSTEM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...IT APPEARS LONG WAVE RIDGING
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES.
WILL GO DRY AFTER TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 171800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MODEL DATA AND THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR INDICATES OCCASIONAL SURFACE
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS FROM 190-220 DEGREES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ENDING WITH SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...MAY SEE SOME CLOUD COVER BASED AROUND 050 DEVELOPING
TOWARDS OR AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE KLAF AREA. NO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 180600Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS



















000
FXUS63 KIND 171650
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1248 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

TODAY WILL FEATURE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SEASONABLE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THEN...A
WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND RESULT IN
SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AFTER THAT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS MAINLY TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF
CLODUS A LITTLE. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST SEEM OK AND NO OTHER
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS IT SHOULD
WARM BACK UP TO MORE OF A NORMAL TYPE MID APRIL DAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE JUST
NEAR OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW
LEVELS SLOW TO MOISTEN...IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH MAINLY ONLY
CIRRUS IN FAST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF A PLAINS TROUGH.

ALTHOUGH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY WARM TO 4 DEGREES
CELSIUS...925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARM SEVERAL DEGREES TO AROUND
10 DEGREES CELSIUS AND 1000 TO 850 MILLIBARS THICKNESSES ALSO COME
UP A LOT TO 1346 TO 1352 DECAMETERS. WITH GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL PER
SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOUNDINGS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
APPROACH 00Z MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S
LOOKING GOOD PER CONSALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

SHOWER CHANCES AND TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...IF NOT WITH THE FINE
DETAILS...REGARDING TIMING AND POSITIONING OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL LIFT LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT...
THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES JUST PRIOR TO
12Z AND MOVE EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND 18Z FRIDAY. DESPITE THE
MINOR DIFFERENCES... 00Z MODELS SUGGEST LOW COVERAGE SHOWERS WILL BE
MOVING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA PRIOR TO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT AND AN UPPER WAVE MOVING
EAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE APPALACHIANS.

BEST CHANCE OF POPS...HOWEVER SMALL...STILL LOOKS TO BE FROM AROUND
12Z TO 18Z FRIDAY WHICH IS THE BEST TIMING OF LOWER CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS...IMPLYING SATURATION IN THE LOWER AND MID
LEVELS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K LEVEL. ALSO...INSTABILITY
PROGS ARE SHOWING SOME SMALL MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON FRIDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...SO MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY ADD A SHORT
PERIOD OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.

FOLLOWING THAT...THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY UPPER
RIDGING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY
WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME
LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY
WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME
LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 171800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MODEL DATA AND THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR INDICATES OCCASIONAL SURFACE
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS FROM 190-220 DEGREES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ENDING WITH SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...MAY SEE SOME CLOUD COVER BASED AROUND 050 DEVELOPING
TOWARDS OR AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE KLAF AREA. NO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 180600Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/JH
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
















000
FXUS63 KIND 171424
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1023 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

TODAY WILL FEATURE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SEASONABLE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THEN...A
WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND RESULT IN
SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AFTER THAT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS MAINLY TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF
CLODUS A LITTLE. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST SEEM OK AND NO OTHER
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS IT SHOULD
WARM BACK UP TO MORE OF A NORMAL TYPE MID APRIL DAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE JUST
NEAR OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW
LEVELS SLOW TO MOISTEN...IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH MAINLY ONLY
CIRRUS IN FAST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF A PLAINS TROUGH.

ALTHOUGH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY WARM TO 4 DEGREES
CELSIUS...925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARM SEVERAL DEGREES TO AROUND
10 DEGREES CELSIUS AND 1000 TO 850 MILLIBARS THICKNESSES ALSO COME
UP A LOT TO 1346 TO 1352 DECAMETERS. WITH GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL PER
SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOUNDINGS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
APPROACH 00Z MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S
LOOKING GOOD PER CONSALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

SHOWER CHANCES AND TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...IF NOT WITH THE FINE
DETAILS...REGARDING TIMING AND POSITIONING OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL LIFT LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT...
THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES JUST PRIOR TO
12Z AND MOVE EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND 18Z FRIDAY. DESPITE THE
MINOR DIFFERENCES... 00Z MODELS SUGGEST LOW COVERAGE SHOWERS WILL BE
MOVING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA PRIOR TO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT AND AN UPPER WAVE MOVING
EAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE APPALACHIANS.

BEST CHANCE OF POPS...HOWEVER SMALL...STILL LOOKS TO BE FROM AROUND
12Z TO 18Z FRIDAY WHICH IS THE BEST TIMING OF LOWER CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS...IMPLYING SATURATION IN THE LOWER AND MID
LEVELS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K LEVEL. ALSO...INSTABILITY
PROGS ARE SHOWING SOME SMALL MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON FRIDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...SO MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY ADD A SHORT
PERIOD OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.

FOLLOWING THAT...THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY UPPER
RIDGING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY
WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME
LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY
WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME
LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 171500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR INDICATES CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES PROBABLY
WON/T BE REACHED THIS AFTERNOON...SO REMOVED THE CLOUDS AT THE 040
LEVEL TODAY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY CIRRUS TODAY WITH SOME SCATTERED
VFR CU FORMING THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL START TO GUST BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL AROUND 18-20 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. GUSTS
WILL DROP OFF WITH SUNSET AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/JH
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 171418
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

TODAY WILL FEATURE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SEASONABLE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THEN...A
WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND RESULT IN
SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AFTER THAT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS MAINLY TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF
CLODUS A LITTLE. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST SEEM OK AND NO OTHER
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS IT SHOULD
WARM BACK UP TO MORE OF A NORMAL TYPE MID APRIL DAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE JUST
NEAR OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW
LEVELS SLOW TO MOISTEN...IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH MAINLY ONLY
CIRRUS IN FAST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF A PLAINS TROUGH.

ALTHOUGH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY WARM TO 4 DEGREES
CELSIUS...925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARM SEVERAL DEGREES TO AROUND
10 DEGREES CELSIUS AND 1000 TO 850 MILLIBARS THICKNESSES ALSO COME
UP A LOT TO 1346 TO 1352 DECAMETERS. WITH GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL PER
SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOUNDINGS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
APPROACH 00Z MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S
LOOKING GOOD PER CONSALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

SHOWER CHANCES AND TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...IF NOT WITH THE FINE
DETAILS...REGARDING TIMING AND POSITIONING OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL LIFT LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT...
THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES JUST PRIOR TO
12Z AND MOVE EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND 18Z FRIDAY. DESPITE THE
MINOR DIFFERENCES... 00Z MODELS SUGGEST LOW COVERAGE SHOWERS WILL BE
MOVING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA PRIOR TO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT AND AN UPPER WAVE MOVING
EAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE APPALACHIANS.

BEST CHANCE OF POPS...HOWEVER SMALL...STILL LOOKS TO BE FROM AROUND
12Z TO 18Z FRIDAY WHICH IS THE BEST TIMING OF LOWER CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS...IMPLYING SATURATION IN THE LOWER AND MID
LEVELS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K LEVEL. ALSO...INSTABILITY
PROGS ARE SHOWING SOME SMALL MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON FRIDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...SO MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY ADD A SHORT
PERIOD OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.

FOLLOWING THAT...THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY UPPER
RIDGING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY
WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME
LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY
WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME
LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY CIRRUS TODAY WITH SOME SCATTERED
VFR CU FORMING THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL START TO GUST BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL AROUND 18-20 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. GUSTS
WILL DROP OFF WITH SUNSET AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/JH
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 171040
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
640 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

TODAY WILL FEATURE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SEASONABLE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THEN...A
WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND RESULT IN
SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AFTER THAT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS IT SHOULD
WARM BACK UP TO MORE OF A NORMAL TYPE MID APRIL DAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE JUST
NEAR OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW
LEVELS SLOW TO MOISTEN...IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH MAINLY ONLY
CIRRUS IN FAST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF A PLAINS TROUGH.

ALTHOUGH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY WARM TO 4 DEGREES
CELSIUS...925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARM SEVERAL DEGREES TO AROUND
10 DEGREES CELSIUS AND 1000 TO 850 MILLIBARS THICKNESSES ALSO COME
UP A LOT TO 1346 TO 1352 DECAMETERS. WITH GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL PER
SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOUNDINGS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
APPROACH 00Z MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S
LOOKING GOOD PER CONSALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

SHOWER CHANCES AND TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...IF NOT WITH THE FINE
DETAILS...REGARDING TIMING AND POSITIONING OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL LIFT LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT...
THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES JUST PRIOR TO
12Z AND MOVE EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND 18Z FRIDAY. DESPITE THE
MINOR DIFFERENCES... 00Z MODELS SUGGEST LOW COVERAGE SHOWERS WILL BE
MOVING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA PRIOR TO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT AND AN UPPER WAVE MOVING
EAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE APPALACHIANS.

BEST CHANCE OF POPS...HOWEVER SMALL...STILL LOOKS TO BE FROM AROUND
12Z TO 18Z FRIDAY WHICH IS THE BEST TIMING OF LOWER CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS...IMPLYING SATURATION IN THE LOWER AND MID
LEVELS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K LEVEL. ALSO...INSTABILITY
PROGS ARE SHOWING SOME SMALL MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON FRIDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...SO MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY ADD A SHORT
PERIOD OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.

FOLLOWING THAT...THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY UPPER
RIDGING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY
WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME
LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY
WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME
LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY CIRRUS TODAY WITH SOME SCATTERED
VFR CU FORMING THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL START TO GUST BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL AROUND 18-20 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. GUSTS
WILL DROP OFF WITH SUNSET AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 170825
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
424 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

TODAY WILL FEATURE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SEASONABLE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THEN...A
WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND RESULT IN
SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AFTER THAT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS IT SHOULD
WARM BACK UP TO MORE OF A NORMAL TYPE MID APRIL DAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE JUST
NEAR OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW
LEVELS SLOW TO MOISTEN...IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH MAINLY ONLY
CIRRUS IN FAST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF A PLAINS TROUGH.

ALTHOUGH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY WARM TO 4 DEGREES
CELSIUS...925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARM SEVERAL DEGREES TO AROUND
10 DEGREES CELSIUS AND 1000 TO 850 MILLIBARS THICKNESSES ALSO COME
UP A LOT TO 1346 TO 1352 DECAMETERS. WITH GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL PER
SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOUNDINGS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
APPROACH 00Z MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S
LOOKING GOOD PER CONSALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

SHOWER CHANCES AND TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...IF NOT WITH THE FINE
DETAILS...REGARDING TIMING AND POSITIONING OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL LIFT LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT...
THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES JUST PRIOR TO
12Z AND MOVE EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND 18Z FRIDAY. DESPITE THE
MINOR DIFFERENCES... 00Z MODELS SUGGEST LOW COVERAGE SHOWERS WILL BE
MOVING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA PRIOR TO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT AND AN UPPER WAVE MOVING
EAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE APPALACHIANS.

BEST CHANCE OF POPS...HOWEVER SMALL...STILL LOOKS TO BE FROM AROUND
12Z TO 18Z FRIDAY WHICH IS THE BEST TIMING OF LOWER CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS...IMPLYING SATURATION IN THE LOWER AND MID
LEVELS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K LEVEL. ALSO...INSTABILITY
PROGS ARE SHOWING SOME SMALL MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON FRIDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...SO MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY ADD A SHORT
PERIOD OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.

FOLLOWING THAT...THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY UPPER
RIDGING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY
WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME
LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEEKEND
FRONTAL SYSTEM. NOW LOOKS LIKE UPPER RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY AND PERHAPS SUNDAY NIGHT...SO WENT
DRY FOR SUNDAY AND REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SYSTEM STILL TO THE WEST. CURRENT RUNS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL INDIANA SOUTH OF
THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING SO ADDED SOME THUNDER
INTO THE FORECAST THEN. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT HAS MOVED OFF
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN BRINGING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 170900Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS RETURN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED OVERNIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY
FOG FORMATION.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A MID CLOUD CEILING EXPECTED BY AROUND
00Z...ESPECIALLY AT THE WESTERN SITES. SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.

WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT WILL RETURN FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT DIMINISH BY
00Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...50/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 170700
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
300 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

TODAY WILL FEATURE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SEASONABLE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THEN...A
WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND RESULT IN
SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AFTER THAT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS IT SHOULD
WARM BACK UP TO MORE OF A NORMAL TYPE MID APRIL DAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE JUST
NEAR OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW
LEVELS SLOW TO MOISTEN...IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH MAINLY ONLY
CIRRUS IN FAST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF A PLAINS TROUGH.

ALTHOUGH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY WARM TO 4 DEGREES
CELSIUS...925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARM SEVERAL DEGREES TO AROUND
10 DEGREES CELSIUS AND 1000 TO 850 MILLIBARS THICKNESSES ALSO COME
UP A LOT TO 1346 TO 1352 DECAMETERS. WITH GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL PER
SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOUNDINGS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
APPROACH 00Z MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S
LOOKING GOOD PER CONSALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

SHOWER CHANCES AND TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...IF NOT WITH THE FINE
DETAILS...REGARDING TIMING AND POSITIONING OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL LIFT LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT...
THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES JUST PRIOR TO
12Z AND MOVE EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND 18Z FRIDAY. DESPITE THE
MINOR DIFFERENCES... 00Z MODELS SUGGEST LOW COVERAGE SHOWERS WILL BE
MOVING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA PRIOR TO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT AND AN UPPER WAVE MOVING
EAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE APPALACHIANS.

BEST CHANCE OF POPS...HOWEVER SMALL...STILL LOOKS TO BE FROM AROUND
12Z TO 18Z FRIDAY WHICH IS THE BEST TIMING OF LOWER CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS...IMPLYING SATURATION IN THE LOWER AND MID
LEVELS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K LEVEL. ALSO...INSTABILITY
PROGS ARE SHOWING SOME SMALL MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON FRIDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...SO MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY ADD A SHORT
PERIOD OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.

FOLLOWING THAT...THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY UPPER
RIDGING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY
WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME
LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEEKEND
FRONTAL SYSTEM. NOW LOOKS LIKE UPPER RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY AND PERHAPS SUNDAY NIGHT...SO WENT
DRY FOR SUNDAY AND REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SYSTEM STILL TO THE WEST. CURRENT RUNS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL INDIANA SOUTH OF
THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING SO ADDED SOME THUNDER
INTO THE FORECAST THEN. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT HAS MOVED OFF
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN BRINGING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 170600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1237 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS RETURN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED OVERNIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY
FOG FORMATION.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A MID CLOUD CEILING EXPECTED BY AROUND
00Z...ESPECIALLY AT THE WESTERN SITES. SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.

WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT WILL RETURN FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT DIMINISH BY
00Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...50/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 170646
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

TODAY WILL FEATURE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SEASONABLE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THEN...A
WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND RESULT IN
SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AFTER THAT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS IT SHOULD
WARM BACK UP TO MORE OF A NORMAL TYPE MID APRIL DAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE JUST
NEAR OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW
LEVELS SLOW TO MOISTEN...IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH MAINLY ONLY
CIRRUS IN FAST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF A PLAINS TROUGH.

ALTHOUGH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY WARM TO 4 DEGREES
CELSIUS...925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARM SEVERAL DEGREES TO AROUND
10 DEGREES CELSIUS AND 1000 TO 850 MILLIBARS THICKNESSES ALSO COME
UP A LOT TO 1346 TO 1352 DECAMETERS. WITH GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL PER
SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOUNDINGS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
APPROACH 00Z MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S
LOOKING GOOD PER CONSALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

SHOWER CHANCES AND TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...IF NOT WITH THE FINE
DETAILS...REGARDING TIMING AND POSITIONING OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL LIFT LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT...
THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES JUST PRIOR TO
12Z AND MOVE EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND 18Z FRIDAY. DESPITE THE
MINOR DIFFERENCES... 00Z MODELS SUGGEST LOW COVERAGE SHOWERS WILL BE
MOVING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA PRIOR TO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT AND AN UPPER WAVE MOVING
EAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE APPALACHIANS.

BEST CHANCE OF POPS...HOWEVER SMALL...STILL LOOKS TO BE FROM AROUND
12Z TO 18Z FRIDAY WHICH IS THE BEST TIMING OF LOWER CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS...IMPLYING SATURATION IN THE LOWER AND MID
LEVELS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K LEVEL. ALSO...INSTABILITY
PROGS ARE SHOWING SOME SMALL MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON FRIDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...SO MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY ADD A SHORT
PERIOD OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.

FOLLOWING THAT...THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY UPPER
RIDGING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY
WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME
LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 170600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1237 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS RETURN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED OVERNIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY
FOG FORMATION.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A MID CLOUD CEILING EXPECTED BY AROUND
00Z...ESPECIALLY AT THE WESTERN SITES. SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.

WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT WILL RETURN FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT DIMINISH BY
00Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...50/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 170438
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1237 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW. HOWEVER...A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM/COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE
FORECAST TOMORROW EVENING. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESUME AT THAT TIME AND
PREVAIL INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FURTHER OUT...RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 931 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

0130Z UPDATE...ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR MODIFICATIONS BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS THIS EVENING. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW ENTERS
THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE...THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ENTER
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING
PRECIP CONFINED TO WISCONSIN WHERE THE BEST LIFT WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS. AS A
RESULT...KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR DURATION OF TONIGHT.

TEMPS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. MODEL
BLEND CAPTURED TEMPS BEST WITH PROJECTED LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS RAIN CHANCES WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT THERE
WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDINESS ALL DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP ENTERING NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER FRI 06Z. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AS EARLY AS FRI 00Z. SO...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS WEST/NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BY THAT TIME. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN THE FRI
12-18Z TIME FRAME...QUICKLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER FRI 18Z
AS MOISTURE ABRUPTLY ENDS ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY
EVENING...AND DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH FLUCTUATING PATTERN FROM COLD FRONT PASSAGE...
SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY
WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME
LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 170600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1237 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS RETURN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED OVERNIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY
FOG FORMATION.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A MID CLOUD CEILING EXPECTED BY AROUND
00Z...ESPECIALLY AT THE WESTERN SITES. SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.

WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT WILL RETURN FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT DIMINISH BY
00Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...50/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 170219
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1019 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW. HOWEVER...A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM/COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE
FORECAST TOMORROW EVENING. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESUME AT THAT TIME AND
PREVAIL INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FURTHER OUT...RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 931 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

0130Z UPDATE...ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR MODIFICATIONS BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS THIS EVENING. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW ENTERS
THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE...THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ENTER
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING
PRECIP CONFINED TO WISCONSIN WHERE THE BEST LIFT WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS. AS A
RESULT...KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR DURATION OF TONIGHT.

TEMPS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. MODEL
BLEND CAPTURED TEMPS BEST WITH PROJECTED LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS RAIN CHANCES WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT THERE
WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDINESS ALL DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP ENTERING NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER FRI 06Z. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AS EARLY AS FRI 00Z. SO...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS WEST/NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BY THAT TIME. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN THE FRI
12-18Z TIME FRAME...QUICKLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER FRI 18Z
AS MOISTURE ABRUPTLY ENDS ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY
EVENING...AND DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH FLUCTUATING PATTERN FROM COLD FRONT PASSAGE...
SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY
WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME
LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 170300Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAK TO WINDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS RETURN
THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED TONIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY
FOG FORMATION.

MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED
CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT WILL
RETURN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 170133
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
933 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW. HOWEVER...A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM/COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE
FORECAST TOMORROW EVENING. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESUME AT THAT TIME AND
PREVAIL INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FURTHER OUT...RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 931 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

0130Z UPDATE...ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR MODIFICATIONS BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS THIS EVENING. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW ENTERS
THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE...THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ENTER
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING
PRECIP CONFINED TO WISCONSIN WHERE THE BEST LIFT WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS. AS A
RESULT...KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR DURATION OF TONIGHT.

TEMPS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. MODEL
BLEND CAPTURED TEMPS BEST WITH PROJECTED LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS RAIN CHANCES WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT THERE
WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDINESS ALL DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP ENTERING NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER FRI 06Z. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AS EARLY AS FRI 00Z. SO...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS WEST/NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BY THAT TIME. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN THE FRI
12-18Z TIME FRAME...QUICKLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER FRI 18Z
AS MOISTURE ABRUPTLY ENDS ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY
EVENING...AND DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH FLUCTUATING PATTERN FROM COLD FRONT PASSAGE...
SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY
WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME
LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 170000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS RETURN
THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED TONIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY
FOG FORMATION.

MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED
CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT WILL
RETURN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 162230
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW. HOWEVER...A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM/COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE
FORECAST TOMORROW EVENING. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESUME AT THAT TIME AND
PREVAIL INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FURTHER OUT...RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES CENTRAL INDIANA.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW ENTERS
THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE...THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ENTER
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING
PRECIP CONFINED TO WISCONSIN WHERE THE BEST LIFT WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS. AS A
RESULT...KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR DURATION OF TONIGHT.

TEMPS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. MODEL
BLEND CAPTURED TEMPS BEST WITH PROJECTED LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS RAIN CHANCES WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT THERE
WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDINESS ALL DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP ENTERING NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER FRI 06Z. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AS EARLY AS FRI 00Z. SO...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS WEST/NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BY THAT TIME. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN THE FRI
12-18Z TIME FRAME...QUICKLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER FRI 18Z
AS MOISTURE ABRUPTLY ENDS ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY
EVENING...AND DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH FLUCTUATING PATTERN FROM COLD FRONT PASSAGE...
SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY
WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME
LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA.



&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 170000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS RETURN
THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED TONIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY
FOG FORMATION.

MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED
CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT WILL
RETURN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&


.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 162026
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
426 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW. HOWEVER...A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM/COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE
FORECAST TOMORROW EVENING. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESUME AT THAT TIME AND
PREVAIL INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FURTHER OUT...RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES CENTRAL INDIANA.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW ENTERS
THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE...THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ENTER
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING
PRECIP CONFINED TO WISCONSIN WHERE THE BEST LIFT WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS. AS A
RESULT...KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR DURATION OF TONIGHT.

TEMPS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. MODEL
BLEND CAPTURED TEMPS BEST WITH PROJECTED LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS RAIN CHANCES WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT THERE
WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDINESS ALL DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP ENTERING NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER FRI 06Z. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AS EARLY AS FRI 00Z. SO...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS WEST/NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BY THAT TIME. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN THE FRI
12-18Z TIME FRAME...QUICKLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER FRI 18Z
AS MOISTURE ABRUPTLY ENDS ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY
EVENING...AND DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH FLUCTUATING PATTERN FROM COLD FRONT PASSAGE...
SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY
WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME
LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA.



&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 162100Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

ADJUSTED WIND DIRECTION A BIT...OTHERWISE NOT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND
DURING THIS PERIOD. DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...PROVIDING SOME MIXING AND PREVENTING FOG FORMATION.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL BEGIN
TO DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD INDIANA...BUT BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE
REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUALLY LOWERING OF CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY.


&&


.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...JP/50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 161957
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
357 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW. HOWEVER...A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM/COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE
FORECAST TOMORROW EVENING. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESUME AT THAT TIME AND
PREVAIL INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FURTHER OUT...RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES CENTRAL INDIANA.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW ENTERS
THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE...THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ENTER
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING
PRECIP CONFINED TO WISCONSIN WHERE THE BEST LIFT WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS. AS A
RESULT...KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR DURATION OF TONIGHT.

TEMPS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. MODEL
BLEND CAPTURED TEMPS BEST WITH PROJECTED LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS RAIN CHANCES WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT THERE
WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDINESS ALL DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP ENTERING NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER FRI 06Z. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AS EARLY AS FRI 00Z. SO...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS WEST/NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BY THAT TIME. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN THE FRI
12-18Z TIME FRAME...QUICKLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER FRI 18Z
AS MOISTURE ABRUPTLY ENDS ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY
EVENING...AND DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH FLUCTUATING PATTERN FROM COLD FRONT PASSAGE...
SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY
WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME
LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA.



&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1228 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND
DURING THIS PERIOD. DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...PROVIDING SOME MIXING AND PREVENTING FOG FORMATION.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL BEGIN
TO DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD INDIANA...BUT BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE
REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUALLY LOWERING OF CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY.


&&


.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 161645
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1245 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO BOUNCE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY
THURSDAY AS WELL. THEN...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S AND MORE SHOWER CHANCES ARE IN STORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

FREEZE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...TEMPS ACROSS FORECAST AREA ARE ALL
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK AT THIS TIME. LATEST OBS ARE SHOWING
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR AS CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. CIRRUS WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AS A SURFACE LOW ENTERS THE
MIDWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TIMING OF POPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS WITH TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS ALSO ON THE DOCKET.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER WAVE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE
INDICATING MAINLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THUS KEEP
IT DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS AN OUTLIER IN
HOLDING BACK THE UPPER SYSTEM A FEW HOURS RESULTING IN QPF HANGING
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE...THE ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF PUSH THE BETTER
MOISTURE TO OUR EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PREFER THE QUICKER ECMWF AND
ENSEMBLE BLEND REGARDING QPF PER THE HEMISPHERIC MODEL DISCUSSION.
SO...WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT OUR
EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA ON FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM.

WITH ONLY CIRRUS...BUT 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 2 TO 3
DEGREES CELSIUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE
FREEZING PER A MODEL AND MOS BLEND. MEANWHILE...MOS LOOKS A DEGREE
OR TWO TO WARM ON THURSDAY BASED ON 850 MILLIBAR PROGS AND
INCREASING AFTERNOON CU. MOS AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TOO WARM ON FRIDAY
AS WELL WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM AND GENERALLY
DID NOT DEPART FROM ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST. ON SUNDAY A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WILL SINK INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE
FRONT IS MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS IT EXITS...USHERING IN HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL WARM SUNDAY TO NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE THEN FOR
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1228 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND
DURING THIS PERIOD. DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...PROVIDING SOME MIXING AND PREVENTING FOG FORMATION.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL BEGIN
TO DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD INDIANA...BUT BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE
REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUALLY LOWERING OF CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 161429
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1029 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO BOUNCE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY
THURSDAY AS WELL. THEN...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S AND MORE SHOWER CHANCES ARE IN STORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

FREEZE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...TEMPS ACROSS FORECAST AREA ARE ALL
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK AT THIS TIME. LATEST OBS ARE SHOWING
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR AS CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. CIRRUS WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AS A SURFACE LOW ENTERS THE
MIDWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TIMING OF POPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS WITH TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS ALSO ON THE DOCKET.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER WAVE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE
INDICATING MAINLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THUS KEEP
IT DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS AN OUTLIER IN
HOLDING BACK THE UPPER SYSTEM A FEW HOURS RESULTING IN QPF HANGING
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE...THE ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF PUSH THE BETTER
MOISTURE TO OUR EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PREFER THE QUICKER ECMWF AND
ENSEMBLE BLEND REGARDING QPF PER THE HEMISPHERIC MODEL DISCUSSION.
SO...WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT OUR
EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA ON FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM.

WITH ONLY CIRRUS...BUT 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 2 TO 3
DEGREES CELSIUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE
FREEZING PER A MODEL AND MOS BLEND. MEANWHILE...MOS LOOKS A DEGREE
OR TWO TO WARM ON THURSDAY BASED ON 850 MILLIBAR PROGS AND
INCREASING AFTERNOON CU. MOS AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TOO WARM ON FRIDAY
AS WELL WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM AND GENERALLY
DID NOT DEPART FROM ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST. ON SUNDAY A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WILL SINK INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE
FRONT IS MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS IT EXITS...USHERING IN HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL WARM SUNDAY TO NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE THEN FOR
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
ONGOING TAF. HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW OCCASIONAL CIRRUS
CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE UNREACHABLE.

/DISCUSSION FOR 161200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS TO AROUND 10-12 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS OF 18-20
KTS DEVELOPING AROUND 18Z AND LASTING UNTIL SUNSET. MAINLY
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 161416
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1016 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO BOUNCE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY
THURSDAY AS WELL. THEN...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S AND MORE SHOWER CHANCES ARE IN STORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

FREEZE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...TEMPS ACROSS FORECAST AREA ARE ALL
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK AT THIS TIME. LATEST OBS ARE SHOWING
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR AS CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. CIRRUS WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AS A SURFACE LOW ENTERS THE
MIDWEST.


&&


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TIMING OF POPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS WITH TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS ALSO ON THE DOCKET.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER WAVE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE
INDICATING MAINLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THUS KEEP
IT DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS AN OUTLIER IN
HOLDING BACK THE UPPER SYSTEM A FEW HOURS RESULTING IN QPF HANGING
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE...THE ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF PUSH THE BETTER
MOISTURE TO OUR EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PREFER THE QUICKER ECMWF AND
ENSEMBLE BLEND REGARDING QPF PER THE HEMISPHERIC MODEL DISCUSSION.
SO...WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT OUR
EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA ON FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM.

WITH ONLY CIRRUS...BUT 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 2 TO 3
DEGREES CELSIUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE
FREEZING PER A MODEL AND MOS BLEND. MEANWHILE...MOS LOOKS A DEGREE
OR TWO TO WARM ON THURSDAY BASED ON 850 MILLIBAR PROGS AND
INCREASING AFTERNOON CU. MOS AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TOO WARM ON FRIDAY
AS WELL WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM AND GENERALLY
DID NOT DEPART FROM ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST. ON SUNDAY A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WILL SINK INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE
FRONT IS MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS IT EXITS...USHERING IN HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL WARM SUNDAY TO NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE THEN FOR
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 161200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS TO AROUND 10-12 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS OF 18-20
KTS DEVELOPING AROUND 18Z AND LASTING UNTIL SUNSET. MAINLY
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 161050
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
650 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO BOUNCE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY
THURSDAY AS WELL. THEN...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S AND MORE SHOWER CHANCES ARE IN STORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 607 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TEMPERATURES HAVE STALLED OR SLOWLY RISEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS IN SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...SO IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES IN THE FREEZE WARNING WILL ONLY END UP RIGHT AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK. HOWEVER...THINK IT BEST JUST TO LET THE FREEZE
WARNING PLAY ITSELF OUT WITH IT STILL BEING PRE-DAWN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO IOWA AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA.

FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
INCREASING LOW PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
TO NEAR 15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 20 MPH OR MORE PER BUFKIT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL TO 850 MILLIBARS...AND 850
MILLIBAR FORECASTING CHART FAVORS THE COOLER 00Z NAM AND CONSALL
BLEND AS OPPOSED TO THE 00Z GFS.

CONTINUING FREEZE WARNING THROUGH 10 AM CONTINUES TO LOOK GREAT AS
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TIMING OF POPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS WITH TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS ALSO ON THE DOCKET.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER WAVE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE
INDICATING MAINLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THUS KEEP
IT DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS AN OUTLIER IN
HOLDING BACK THE UPPER SYSTEM A FEW HOURS RESULTING IN QPF HANGING
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE...THE ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF PUSH THE BETTER
MOISTURE TO OUR EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PREFER THE QUICKER ECMWF AND
ENSEMBLE BLEND REGARDING QPF PER THE HEMISPHERIC MODEL DISCUSSION.
SO...WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT OUR
EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA ON FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM.

WITH ONLY CIRRUS...BUT 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 2 TO 3
DEGREES CELSIUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE
FREEZING PER A MODEL AND MOS BLEND. MEANWHILE...MOS LOOKS A DEGREE
OR TWO TO WARM ON THURSDAY BASED ON 850 MILLIBAR PROGS AND
INCREASING AFTERNOON CU. MOS AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TOO WARM ON FRIDAY
AS WELL WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM AND GENERALLY
DID NOT DEPART FROM ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST. ON SUNDAY A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WILL SINK INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE
FRONT IS MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS IT EXITS...USHERING IN HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL WARM SUNDAY TO NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE THEN FOR
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 161200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS TO AROUND 10-12 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS OF 18-20
KTS DEVELOPING AROUND 18Z AND LASTING UNTIL SUNSET. MAINLY
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ060-061-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 161008
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
607 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO BOUNCE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY
THURSDAY AS WELL. THEN...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S AND MORE SHOWER CHANCES ARE IN STORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 607 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TEMPERATURES HAVE STALLED OR SLOWLY RISEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS IN SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...SO IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES IN THE FREEZE WARNING WILL ONLY END UP RIGHT AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK. HOWEVER...THINK IT BEST JUST TO LET THE FREEZE
WARNING PLAY ITSELF OUT WITH IT STILL BEING PRE-DAWN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO IOWA AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA.

FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
INCREASING LOW PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
TO NEAR 15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 20 MPH OR MORE PER BUFKIT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL TO 850 MILLIBARS...AND 850
MILLIBAR FORECASTING CHART FAVORS THE COOLER 00Z NAM AND CONSALL
BLEND AS OPPOSED TO THE 00Z GFS.

CONTINUING FREEZE WARNING THROUGH 10 AM CONTINUES TO LOOK GREAT AS
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TIMING OF POPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS WITH TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS ALSO ON THE DOCKET.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER WAVE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE
INDICATING MAINLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THUS KEEP
IT DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS AN OUTLIER IN
HOLDING BACK THE UPPER SYSTEM A FEW HOURS RESULTING IN QPF HANGING
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE...THE ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF PUSH THE BETTER
MOISTURE TO OUR EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PREFER THE QUICKER ECMWF AND
ENSEMBLE BLEND REGARDING QPF PER THE HEMISPHERIC MODEL DISCUSSION.
SO...WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT OUR
EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA ON FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM.

WITH ONLY CIRRUS...BUT 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 2 TO 3
DEGREES CELSIUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE
FREEZING PER A MODEL AND MOS BLEND. MEANWHILE...MOS LOOKS A DEGREE
OR TWO TO WARM ON THURSDAY BASED ON 850 MILLIBAR PROGS AND
INCREASING AFTERNOON CU. MOS AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TOO WARM ON FRIDAY
AS WELL WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM AND GENERALLY
DID NOT DEPART FROM ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST. ON SUNDAY A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WILL SINK INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE
FRONT IS MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS IT EXITS...USHERING IN HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL WARM SUNDAY TO NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE THEN FOR
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 160900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS RETURN MID MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
PERIOD.

WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS OVER 20KT
LIKELY FROM 14-16Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ060-061-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...50/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 160827
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
426 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO BOUNCE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY
THURSDAY AS WELL. THEN...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S AND MORE SHOWER CHANCES ARE IN STORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO IOWA AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA.

FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
INCREASING LOW PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
TO NEAR 15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 20 MPH OR MORE PER BUFKIT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL TO 850 MILLIBARS...AND 850
MILLIBAR FORECASTING CHART FAVORS THE COOLER 00Z NAM AND CONSALL
BLEND AS OPPOSED TO THE 00Z GFS.

CONTINUING FREEZE WARNING THROUGH 10 AM CONTINUES TO LOOK GREAT AS
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TIMING OF POPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS WITH TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS ALSO ON THE DOCKET.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER WAVE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE
INDICATING MAINLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THUS KEEP
IT DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS AN OUTLIER IN
HOLDING BACK THE UPPER SYSTEM A FEW HOURS RESULTING IN QPF HANGING
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE...THE ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF PUSH THE BETTER
MOISTURE TO OUR EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PREFER THE QUICKER ECMWF AND
ENSEMBLE BLEND REGARDING QPF PER THE HEMISPHERIC MODEL DISCUSSION.
SO...WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT OUR
EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA ON FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM.

WITH ONLY CIRRUS...BUT 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 2 TO 3
DEGREES CELSIUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE
FREEZING PER A MODEL AND MOS BLEND. MEANWHILE...MOS LOOKS A DEGREE
OR TWO TO WARM ON THURSDAY BASED ON 850 MILLIBAR PROGS AND
INCREASING AFTERNOON CU. MOS AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TOO WARM ON FRIDAY
AS WELL WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM AND GENERALLY
DID NOT DEPART FROM ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST. ON SUNDAY A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WILL SINK INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE
FRONT IS MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS IT EXITS...USHERING IN HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL WARM SUNDAY TO NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE THEN FOR
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 160900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS RETURN MID MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
PERIOD.

WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS OVER 20KT
LIKELY FROM 14-16Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ060-061-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...50/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 160716
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO BOUNCE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY
THURSDAY AS WELL. THEN...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S AND MORE SHOWER CHANCES ARE IN STORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO IOWA AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA.

FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
INCREASING LOW PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
TO NEAR 15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 20 MPH OR MORE PER BUFKIT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL TO 850 MILLIBARS...AND 850
MILLIBAR FORECASTING CHART FAVORS THE COOLER 00Z NAM AND CONSALL
BLEND AS OPPOSED TO THE 00Z GFS.

CONTINUING FREEZE WARNING THROUGH 10 AM CONTINUES TO LOOK GREAT AS
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TIMING OF POPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS WITH TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS ALSO ON THE DOCKET.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER WAVE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE
INDICATING MAINLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THUS KEEP
IT DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS AN OUTLIER IN
HOLDING BACK THE UPPER SYSTEM A FEW HOURS RESULTING IN QPF HANGING
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE...THE ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF PUSH THE BETTER
MOISTURE TO OUR EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PREFER THE QUICKER ECMWF AND
ENSEMBLE BLEND REGARDING QPF PER THE HEMISPHERIC MODEL DISCUSSION.
SO...WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT OUR
EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA ON FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM.

WITH ONLY CIRRUS...BUT 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 2 TO 3
DEGREES CELSIUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE
FREEZING PER A MODEL AND MOS BLEND. MEANWHILE...MOS LOOKS A DEGREE
OR TWO TO WARM ON THURSDAY BASED ON 850 MILLIBAR PROGS AND
INCREASING AFTERNOON CU. MOS AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TOO WARM ON FRIDAY
AS WELL WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM AND GENERALLY
DID NOT DEPART FROM ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST. ON SUNDAY A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WILL SINK INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE
FRONT IS MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS IT EXITS...USHERING IN HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL WARM SUNDAY TO NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE THEN FOR
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 160600Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1240 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS RETURN MID MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
PERIOD.

WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS OVER 20KT
LIKELY FROM 14-16Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ060-061-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...50/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 160709
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
309 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH IS CLEARING THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP
WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT UNDER VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY BEFORE A SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO MODERATE BACK TO MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1002 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

0200Z UPDATE...REALLY ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR
MODIFICATIONS TO FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS THIS EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE WINTER THAT REFUSES TO DIE BROUGHT US ONE LAST /HOPEFULLY/
PARTING SHOT TODAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...SOME
CONVECTIVE FLURRIES...AND A DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP AT
INDIANAPOLIS THAT WILL LIKELY BLOW THE OLD RECORD OF 40 DEGREES
OUT OF THE WATER. ALTHOUGH ECHOES STILL REMAIN ON THE RADAR...VERY
LITTLE IF ANY IS MAKING THE GROUND OWING TO RAPIDLY INCREASING
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS GUSTS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH HAVE HELPED TO BRING DOWN DRIER
AIR TO THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP A PRE FIRST PERIOD MENTION OF
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER WITH THESE
ECHOES REMAINING IN THE AREA.

AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP EASILY OVERNIGHT...AND WENT WITH THE COOLER MOS BLEND OVER
OTHER GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS TEMPS DOWN WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER WAVE WILL
NECESSITATE AT LEAST LOW POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME INSTABILITY IS LOW PER MODEL K
INDEX VALUES...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE IN PART THANKS TO THE TIME OF
YEAR...AND TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PATCHY FROST MAY BE A CONCERN FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHICH HAVE BEGUN THE GROWING
SEASON...BUT AFTER WHAT LOOKS LIKE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT THIS MAY
NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM AND GENERALLY
DID NOT DEPART FROM ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST. ON SUNDAY A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WILL SINK INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE
FRONT IS MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS IT EXITS...USHERING IN HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL WARM SUNDAY TO NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE THEN FOR
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 160600Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1240 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS RETURN MID MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
PERIOD.

WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS OVER 20KT
LIKELY FROM 14-16Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ060-061-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...50/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 160440
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1240 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH IS CLEARING THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP
WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT UNDER VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY BEFORE A SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO MODERATE BACK TO MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1002 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

0200Z UPDATE...REALLY ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR
MODIFICATIONS TO FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS THIS EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE WINTER THAT REFUSES TO DIE BROUGHT US ONE LAST /HOPEFULLY/
PARTING SHOT TODAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...SOME
CONVECTIVE FLURRIES...AND A DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP AT
INDIANAPOLIS THAT WILL LIKELY BLOW THE OLD RECORD OF 40 DEGREES
OUT OF THE WATER. ALTHOUGH ECHOES STILL REMAIN ON THE RADAR...VERY
LITTLE IF ANY IS MAKING THE GROUND OWING TO RAPIDLY INCREASING
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS GUSTS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH HAVE HELPED TO BRING DOWN DRIER
AIR TO THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP A PRE FIRST PERIOD MENTION OF
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER WITH THESE
ECHOES REMAINING IN THE AREA.

AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP EASILY OVERNIGHT...AND WENT WITH THE COOLER MOS BLEND OVER
OTHER GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS TEMPS DOWN WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER WAVE WILL
NECESSITATE AT LEAST LOW POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME INSTABILITY IS LOW PER MODEL K
INDEX VALUES...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE IN PART THANKS TO THE TIME OF
YEAR...AND TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PATCHY FROST MAY BE A CONCERN FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHICH HAVE BEGUN THE GROWING
SEASON...BUT AFTER WHAT LOOKS LIKE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT THIS MAY
NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WITH DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER
WAVE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERING VARIANCE
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...SO DEVIATED LITTLE
FROM ALLBLEND AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING EAST
INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 160600Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1240 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS RETURN MID MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
PERIOD.

WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS OVER 20KT
LIKELY FROM 14-16Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...50/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 160221
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1021 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH IS CLEARING THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP
WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT UNDER VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY BEFORE A SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO MODERATE BACK TO MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1002 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

0200Z UPDATE...REALLY ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR
MODIFICATIONS TO FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS THIS EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE WINTER THAT REFUSES TO DIE BROUGHT US ONE LAST /HOPEFULLY/
PARTING SHOT TODAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...SOME
CONVECTIVE FLURRIES...AND A DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP AT
INDIANAPOLIS THAT WILL LIKELY BLOW THE OLD RECORD OF 40 DEGREES
OUT OF THE WATER. ALTHOUGH ECHOES STILL REMAIN ON THE RADAR...VERY
LITTLE IF ANY IS MAKING THE GROUND OWING TO RAPIDLY INCREASING
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS GUSTS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH HAVE HELPED TO BRING DOWN DRIER
AIR TO THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP A PRE FIRST PERIOD MENTION OF
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER WITH THESE
ECHOES REMAINING IN THE AREA.

AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP EASILY OVERNIGHT...AND WENT WITH THE COOLER MOS BLEND OVER
OTHER GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS TEMPS DOWN WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER WAVE WILL
NECESSITATE AT LEAST LOW POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME INSTABILITY IS LOW PER MODEL K
INDEX VALUES...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE IN PART THANKS TO THE TIME OF
YEAR...AND TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PATCHY FROST MAY BE A CONCERN FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHICH HAVE BEGUN THE GROWING
SEASON...BUT AFTER WHAT LOOKS LIKE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT THIS MAY
NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WITH DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER
WAVE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERING VARIANCE
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...SO DEVIATED LITTLE
FROM ALLBLEND AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING EAST
INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 160300Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1021 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

KIND TAF IS GOOD. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY.

CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
VALID TIME LEAVING BEHIND SCATTERED MID AND UPPER CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS.

WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS OVER 20KT LIKELY
FROM 14-16Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 160205
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1005 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH IS CLEARING THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP
WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT UNDER VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY BEFORE A SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO MODERATE BACK TO MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1002 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

0200Z UPDATE...REALLY ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR
MODIFICATIONS TO FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS THIS EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE WINTER THAT REFUSES TO DIE BROUGHT US ONE LAST /HOPEFULLY/
PARTING SHOT TODAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...SOME
CONVECTIVE FLURRIES...AND A DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP AT
INDIANAPOLIS THAT WILL LIKELY BLOW THE OLD RECORD OF 40 DEGREES
OUT OF THE WATER. ALTHOUGH ECHOES STILL REMAIN ON THE RADAR...VERY
LITTLE IF ANY IS MAKING THE GROUND OWING TO RAPIDLY INCREASING
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS GUSTS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH HAVE HELPED TO BRING DOWN DRIER
AIR TO THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP A PRE FIRST PERIOD MENTION OF
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER WITH THESE
ECHOES REMAINING IN THE AREA.

AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP EASILY OVERNIGHT...AND WENT WITH THE COOLER MOS BLEND OVER
OTHER GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS TEMPS DOWN WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER WAVE WILL
NECESSITATE AT LEAST LOW POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME INSTABILITY IS LOW PER MODEL K
INDEX VALUES...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE IN PART THANKS TO THE TIME OF
YEAR...AND TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PATCHY FROST MAY BE A CONCERN FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHICH HAVE BEGUN THE GROWING
SEASON...BUT AFTER WHAT LOOKS LIKE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT THIS MAY
NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WITH DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER
WAVE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERING VARIANCE
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...SO DEVIATED LITTLE
FROM ALLBLEND AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING EAST
INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 160000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 631 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY.

CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
VALID TIME LEAVING BEHIND SCATTERED MID AND UPPER CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS.

WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS OVER 20KT LIKELY
FROM 14-16Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 152231
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
631 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

UPPER TROUGH IS CLEARING THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP
WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT UNDER VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY BEFORE A SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO MODERATE BACK TO MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE WINTER THAT REFUSES TO DIE BROUGHT US ONE LAST /HOPEFULLY/
PARTING SHOT TODAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...SOME
CONVECTIVE FLURRIES...AND A DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP AT
INDIANAPOLIS THAT WILL LIKELY BLOW THE OLD RECORD OF 40 DEGREES
OUT OF THE WATER. ALTHOUGH ECHOES STILL REMAIN ON THE RADAR...VERY
LITTLE IF ANY IS MAKING THE GROUND OWING TO RAPIDLY INCREASING
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS GUSTS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH HAVE HELPED TO BRING DOWN DRIER
AIR TO THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP A PRE FIRST PERIOD MENTION OF
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER WITH THESE
ECHOES REMAINING IN THE AREA.

AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP EASILY OVERNIGHT...AND WENT WITH THE COOLER MOS BLEND OVER
OTHER GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS TEMPS DOWN WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER WAVE WILL
NECESSITATE AT LEAST LOW POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME INSTABILITY IS LOW PER MODEL K
INDEX VALUES...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE IN PART THANKS TO THE TIME OF
YEAR...AND TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PATCHY FROST MAY BE A CONCERN FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHICH HAVE BEGUN THE GROWING
SEASON...BUT AFTER WHAT LOOKS LIKE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT THIS MAY
NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WITH DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER
WAVE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERING VARIANCE
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...SO DEVIATED LITTLE
FROM ALLBLEND AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING EAST
INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 160000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 631 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY.

CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
VALID TIME LEAVING BEHIND SCATTERED MID AND UPPER CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS.

WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS OVER 20KT LIKELY
FROM 14-16Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 152035
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
435 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

UPPER TROUGH IS CLEARING THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP
WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT UNDER VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY BEFORE A SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO MODERATE BACK TO MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE WINTER THAT REFUSES TO DIE BROUGHT US ONE LAST /HOPEFULLY/
PARTING SHOT TODAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...SOME
CONVECTIVE FLURRIES...AND A DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP AT
INDIANAPOLIS THAT WILL LIKELY BLOW THE OLD RECORD OF 40 DEGREES
OUT OF THE WATER. ALTHOUGH ECHOES STILL REMAIN ON THE RADAR...VERY
LITTLE IF ANY IS MAKING THE GROUND OWING TO RAPIDLY INCREASING
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS GUSTS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH HAVE HELPED TO BRING DOWN DRIER
AIR TO THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP A PRE FIRST PERIOD MENTION OF
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER WITH THESE
ECHOES REMAINING IN THE AREA.

AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP EASILY OVERNIGHT...AND WENT WITH THE COOLER MOS BLEND OVER
OTHER GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS TEMPS DOWN WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER WAVE WILL
NECESSITATE AT LEAST LOW POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME INSTABILITY IS LOW PER MODEL K
INDEX VALUES...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE IN PART THANKS TO THE TIME OF
YEAR...AND TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PATCHY FROST MAY BE A CONCERN FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHICH HAVE BEGUN THE GROWING
SEASON...BUT AFTER WHAT LOOKS LIKE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT THIS MAY
NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WITH DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER
WAVE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERING VARIANCE
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...SO DEVIATED LITTLE
FROM ALLBLEND AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING EAST
INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 151800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

2030Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN SNOW
SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

PESKY AND PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING PRIMARILY
KIND ALL DAY SO FAR. SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
STEEPER LAPSE RATES THAT ARE CONTRIBUTING THE THE CONTINUED SNOW
SHOWERS. HAVE SEEN A SLOW SHIFT EAST WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH...AND UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA RIGHT NOW. HAVE HELD
ONTO VCSH AT KIND FOR A FEW HOURS BUT RECENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD
SUGGEST BULK OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE DONE. VFR CU FIELD
WILL REMAIN HOWEVER FOR DURATION OF THE AFTERNOON AS REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE COLD POOL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO PREDOMINANT S/SE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE UPPER
MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...SMF/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 151945
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

UPPER TROUGH IS CLEARING THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP
WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT UNDER VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY BEFORE A SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO MODERATE BACK TO MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE WINTER THAT REFUSES TO DIE BROUGHT US ONE LAST /HOPEFULLY/
PARTING SHOT TODAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...SOME
CONVECTIVE FLURRIES...AND A DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP AT
INDIANAPOLIS THAT WILL LIKELY BLOW THE OLD RECORD OF 40 DEGREES
OUT OF THE WATER. ALTHOUGH ECHOES STILL REMAIN ON THE RADAR...VERY
LITTLE IF ANY IS MAKING THE GROUND OWING TO RAPIDLY INCREASING
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS GUSTS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH HAVE HELPED TO BRING DOWN DRIER
AIR TO THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP A PRE FIRST PERIOD MENTION OF
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER WITH THESE
ECHOES REMAINING IN THE AREA.

AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP EASILY OVERNIGHT...AND WENT WITH THE COOLER MOS BLEND OVER
OTHER GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS TEMPS DOWN WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER WAVE WILL
NECESSITATE AT LEAST LOW POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME INSTABILITY IS LOW PER MODEL K
INDEX VALUES...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE IN PART THANKS TO THE TIME OF
YEAR...AND TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PATCHY FROST MAY BE A CONCERN FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHICH HAVE BEGUN THE GROWING
SEASON...BUT AFTER WHAT LOOKS LIKE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT THIS MAY
NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WITH DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER
WAVE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERING VARIANCE
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...SO DEVIATED LITTLE
FROM ALLBLEND AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING EAST
INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 151800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN SNOW
SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

PESKY AND PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING PRIMARILY
KIND ALL DAY SO FAR. SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
STEEPER LAPSE RATES THAT ARE CONTRIBUTING THE THE CONTINUED SNOW
SHOWERS. HAVE SEEN A SLOW SHIFT EAST WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH...AND UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA RIGHT NOW. HAVE HELD
ONTO VCSH AT KIND FOR A FEW HOURS BUT RECENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD
SUGGEST BULK OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE DONE. VFR CU FIELD
WILL REMAIN HOWEVER FOR DURATION OF THE AFTERNOON AS REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE COLD POOL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO PREDOMINANT S/SE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE UPPER
MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 151840
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
240 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY
AND TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK
TO NORMAL IN THE 60S BY THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. FINALLY...MORE SHOWER CHANCES WILL
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RELATED TO
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 959 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

MUCH TO THE CHAGRIN OF MANY...LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
A CORRIDOR FROM THE LAF/OKK AREA DOWN TO EAST OF BMG. WILL HAVE TO
ADD POPS THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED
WORDING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION SHOULD OCCUR. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

HAD TO ADD A COUPLE OF HOURS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES REGARDING
THE BAND THAT HAS SET UP ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM AROUND DELPHI TO
INDIANAPOLIS. EXPECT THE BAND TO DIMINISH AROUND 12Z OR SHORTLY
AFTER AS UPPER SUBSIDENCE WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS A BIT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE MAIN ISSUES WITH THE NEAR TERM CENTER AROUND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
6 AM TO 10 AM ACROSS MANY OF OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN. TIMING
OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS ALONG WITH RESULTANT
TEMPERATURES. RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS ALONG WITH RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST ALL THE SNOW SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST PRIOR
TO 12Z TODAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BROAD PLAINS COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT...SHARP SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE RESULT WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH WILL ONLY BE PUNCTUATED BY THE NORTHWEST
WINDS THAT BUFKIT SUGGESTS COULD GUST TO 25 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY.

LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST CLEARING LINE ACROSS ILLINOIS WILL SPREAD
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 850 MILLIBARS AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN CU FILLING BACK IN FOR A TIME
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES FROM MINUS 7 DEGREES SOUTHWEST TO MINUS 10 DEGREES
NORTHEAST...SUCH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SOME CLOUD
COVER...WILL UNDERCUT 00Z MOS A FEW DEGREES AND CLOSER TO CONSALL
BLEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST.

FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD THROUGH 10 AM SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...HOWEVER WILL ALSO NEED TO EXTEND THE WARNING ACROSS
KNOX...DAVIESS AND MARTIN THE WAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHTED BY A WIDESPREAD FREEZE TONIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS TO THE SHORT TERM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF OUT
WESTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE SUGGESTS CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH A HARD FREEZE
LOOKING LIKELY. THUS...WILL UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...THAT AS MENTIONED EARLIER ARE
NOW IN THE GROWING SEASON.

WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED IN FAST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY AND WARM ADVECTION FROM BREEZY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO
CELSIUS MIXED DOWN UNDER WOULD SUGGEST.

LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
32 DEGREES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY...CONTINUING SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S PER 00Z MOS AND
MODEL BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WITH DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER
WAVE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERING VARIANCE
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...SO DEVIATED LITTLE
FROM ALLBLEND AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING EAST
INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 151800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN SNOW
SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

PESKY AND PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING PRIMARILY
KIND ALL DAY SO FAR. SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
STEEPER LAPSE RATES THAT ARE CONTRIBUTING THE THE CONTINUED SNOW
SHOWERS. HAVE SEEN A SLOW SHIFT EAST WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH...AND UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA RIGHT NOW. HAVE HELD
ONTO VCSH AT KIND FOR A FEW HOURS BUT RECENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD
SUGGEST BULK OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE DONE. VFR CU FIELD
WILL REMAIN HOWEVER FOR DURATION OF THE AFTERNOON AS REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE COLD POOL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO PREDOMINANT S/SE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE UPPER
MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KOCH
NEAR TERM...KOCH/NIELD
SHORT TERM...KOCH
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 151712
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
112 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY
AND TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK
TO NORMAL IN THE 60S BY THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. FINALLY...MORE SHOWER CHANCES WILL
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RELATED TO
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 959 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

MUCH TO THE CHAGRIN OF MANY...LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
A CORRIDOR FROM THE LAF/OKK AREA DOWN TO EAST OF BMG. WILL HAVE TO
ADD POPS THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED
WORDING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION SHOULD OCCUR. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

HAD TO ADD A COUPLE OF HOURS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES REGARDING
THE BAND THAT HAS SET UP ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM AROUND DELPHI TO
INDIANAPOLIS. EXPECT THE BAND TO DIMINISH AROUND 12Z OR SHORTLY
AFTER AS UPPER SUBSIDENCE WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS A BIT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE MAIN ISSUES WITH THE NEAR TERM CENTER AROUND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
6 AM TO 10 AM ACROSS MANY OF OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN. TIMING
OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS ALONG WITH RESULTANT
TEMPERATURES. RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS ALONG WITH RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST ALL THE SNOW SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST PRIOR
TO 12Z TODAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BROAD PLAINS COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT...SHARP SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE RESULT WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH WILL ONLY BE PUNCTUATED BY THE NORTHWEST
WINDS THAT BUFKIT SUGGESTS COULD GUST TO 25 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY.

LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST CLEARING LINE ACROSS ILLINOIS WILL SPREAD
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 850 MILLIBARS AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN CU FILLING BACK IN FOR A TIME
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES FROM MINUS 7 DEGREES SOUTHWEST TO MINUS 10 DEGREES
NORTHEAST...SUCH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SOME CLOUD
COVER...WILL UNDERCUT 00Z MOS A FEW DEGREES AND CLOSER TO CONSALL
BLEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST.

FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD THROUGH 10 AM SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...HOWEVER WILL ALSO NEED TO EXTEND THE WARNING ACROSS
KNOX...DAVIESS AND MARTIN THE WAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHTED BY A WIDESPREAD FREEZE TONIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS TO THE SHORT TERM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF OUT
WESTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE SUGGESTS CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH A HARD FREEZE
LOOKING LIKELY. THUS...WILL UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...THAT AS MENTIONED EARLIER ARE
NOW IN THE GROWING SEASON.

WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED IN FAST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY AND WARM ADVECTION FROM BREEZY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO
CELSIUS MIXED DOWN UNDER WOULD SUGGEST.

LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
32 DEGREES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY...CONTINUING SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S PER 00Z MOS AND
MODEL BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OHIO RIVER BRINGING RAIN CHANCES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. NO INSTABILITY AVAILABLE SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. SATURDAY UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OVERHEAD
KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON
THERE IS A DECENT BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AS
WELL AS THE ENSEMBLES AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGING AND
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER WAVE. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATION.
THIS PRODUCED LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED COOLER THIS SET OF RUNS WITH HIGHS STILL
RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 151800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN SNOW
SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

PESKY AND PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING PRIMARILY
KIND ALL DAY SO FAR. SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
STEEPER LAPSE RATES THAT ARE CONTRIBUTING THE THE CONTINUED SNOW
SHOWERS. HAVE SEEN A SLOW SHIFT EAST WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH...AND UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA RIGHT NOW. HAVE HELD
ONTO VCSH AT KIND FOR A FEW HOURS BUT RECENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD
SUGGEST BULK OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE DONE. VFR CU FIELD
WILL REMAIN HOWEVER FOR DURATION OF THE AFTERNOON AS REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE COLD POOL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO PREDOMINANT S/SE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE UPPER
MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KOCH
NEAR TERM...KOCH/NIELD
SHORT TERM...KOCH
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 151418
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1018 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY
AND TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK
TO NORMAL IN THE 60S BY THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. FINALLY...MORE SHOWER CHANCES WILL
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RELATED TO
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 959 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

MUCH TO THE CHAGRIN OF MANY...LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
A CORRIDOR FROM THE LAF/OKK AREA DOWN TO EAST OF BMG. WILL HAVE TO
ADD POPS THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED
WORDING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION SHOULD OCCUR. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

HAD TO ADD A COUPLE OF HOURS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES REGARDING
THE BAND THAT HAS SET UP ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM AROUND DELPHI TO
INDIANAPOLIS. EXPECT THE BAND TO DIMINISH AROUND 12Z OR SHORTLY
AFTER AS UPPER SUBSIDENCE WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS A BIT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE MAIN ISSUES WITH THE NEAR TERM CENTER AROUND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
6 AM TO 10 AM ACROSS MANY OF OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN. TIMING
OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS ALONG WITH RESULTANT
TEMPERATURES. RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS ALONG WITH RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST ALL THE SNOW SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST PRIOR
TO 12Z TODAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BROAD PLAINS COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT...SHARP SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE RESULT WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH WILL ONLY BE PUNCTUATED BY THE NORTHWEST
WINDS THAT BUFKIT SUGGESTS COULD GUST TO 25 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY.

LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST CLEARING LINE ACROSS ILLINOIS WILL SPREAD
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 850 MILLIBARS AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN CU FILLING BACK IN FOR A TIME
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES FROM MINUS 7 DEGREES SOUTHWEST TO MINUS 10 DEGREES
NORTHEAST...SUCH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SOME CLOUD
COVER...WILL UNDERCUT 00Z MOS A FEW DEGREES AND CLOSER TO CONSALL
BLEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST.

FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD THROUGH 10 AM SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...HOWEVER WILL ALSO NEED TO EXTEND THE WARNING ACROSS
KNOX...DAVIESS AND MARTIN THE WAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHTED BY A WIDESPREAD FREEZE TONIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS TO THE SHORT TERM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF OUT
WESTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE SUGGESTS CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH A HARD FREEZE
LOOKING LIKELY. THUS...WILL UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...THAT AS MENTIONED EARLIER ARE
NOW IN THE GROWING SEASON.

WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED IN FAST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY AND WARM ADVECTION FROM BREEZY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO
CELSIUS MIXED DOWN UNDER WOULD SUGGEST.

LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
32 DEGREES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY...CONTINUING SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S PER 00Z MOS AND
MODEL BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OHIO RIVER BRINGING RAIN CHANCES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. NO INSTABILITY AVAILABLE SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. SATURDAY UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OVERHEAD
KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON
THERE IS A DECENT BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AS
WELL AS THE ENSEMBLES AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGING AND
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER WAVE. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATION.
THIS PRODUCED LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED COOLER THIS SET OF RUNS WITH HIGHS STILL
RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 151500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

BROKEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO PERIODICALLY IMPACT KIND.
HOWEVER...BAND AXIS SHIFTING EAST IN RESPONSE TO A BACKING OF THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW. KLAF NOW APPEARS TO BE DONE...AND THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF KIND AS WELL BETWEEN 15-16Z. TWEAKED CEILINGS
AND WINDS.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND COULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT KIND AND KLAF FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IN ADDITION TO THE
MVFR CEILINGS EVERYWHERE BUT KHUF. BY MID MORNING SHOULD SEE
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT BUT THEN WILL SEE VFR CEILINGS DEVELOP WITH CU
FILLING BACK IN. WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 18KTS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT AND BECOME
FAIRLY LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KOCH
NEAR TERM...KOCH/NIELD
SHORT TERM...KOCH
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CP/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 151359
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
959 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY
AND TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK
TO NORMAL IN THE 60S BY THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. FINALLY...MORE SHOWER CHANCES WILL
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RELATED TO
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 959 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

MUCH TO THE CHAGRIN OF MANY...LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
A CORRIDOR FROM THE LAF/OKK AREA DOWN TO EAST OF BMG. WILL HAVE TO
ADD POPS THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED
WORDING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION SHOULD OCCUR. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

HAD TO ADD A COUPLE OF HOURS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES REGARDING
THE BAND THAT HAS SET UP ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM AROUND DELPHI TO
INDIANAPOLIS. EXPECT THE BAND TO DIMINISH AROUND 12Z OR SHORTLY
AFTER AS UPPER SUBSIDENCE WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS A BIT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE MAIN ISSUES WITH THE NEAR TERM CENTER AROUND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
6 AM TO 10 AM ACROSS MANY OF OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN. TIMING
OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS ALONG WITH RESULTANT
TEMPERATURES. RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS ALONG WITH RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST ALL THE SNOW SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST PRIOR
TO 12Z TODAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BROAD PLAINS COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT...SHARP SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE RESULT WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH WILL ONLY BE PUNCTUATED BY THE NORTHWEST
WINDS THAT BUFKIT SUGGESTS COULD GUST TO 25 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY.

LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST CLEARING LINE ACROSS ILLINOIS WILL SPREAD
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 850 MILLIBARS AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN CU FILLING BACK IN FOR A TIME
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES FROM MINUS 7 DEGREES SOUTHWEST TO MINUS 10 DEGREES
NORTHEAST...SUCH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SOME CLOUD
COVER...WILL UNDERCUT 00Z MOS A FEW DEGREES AND CLOSER TO CONSALL
BLEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST.

FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD THROUGH 10 AM SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...HOWEVER WILL ALSO NEED TO EXTEND THE WARNING ACROSS
KNOX...DAVIESS AND MARTIN THE WAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHTED BY A WIDESPREAD FREEZE TONIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS TO THE SHORT TERM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF OUT
WESTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE SUGGESTS CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH A HARD FREEZE
LOOKING LIKELY. THUS...WILL UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...THAT AS MENTIONED EARLIER ARE
NOW IN THE GROWING SEASON.

WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED IN FAST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY AND WARM ADVECTION FROM BREEZY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO
CELSIUS MIXED DOWN UNDER WOULD SUGGEST.

LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
32 DEGREES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY...CONTINUING SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S PER 00Z MOS AND
MODEL BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OHIO RIVER BRINGING RAIN CHANCES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. NO INSTABILITY AVAILABLE SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. SATURDAY UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OVERHEAD
KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON
THERE IS A DECENT BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AS
WELL AS THE ENSEMBLES AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGING AND
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER WAVE. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATION.
THIS PRODUCED LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED COOLER THIS SET OF RUNS WITH HIGHS STILL
RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 151200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND COULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT KIND AND KLAF FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IN ADDITION TO THE
MVFR CEILINGS EVERYWHERE BUT KHUF. BY MID MORNING SHOULD SEE
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT BUT THEN WILL SEE VFR CEILINGS DEVELOP WITH CU
FILLING BACK IN. WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 18KTS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT AND BECOME
FAIRLY LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KOCH
NEAR TERM...KOCH/NIELD
SHORT TERM...KOCH
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CP

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