000
FXUS63 KIND 182029
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
429 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT BRINGING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND
THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME MORE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
BRIEF COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...AND THESE WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE ISOLATED
STORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
AN UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD AID IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLD FRONT. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND AS WELL. WILL GO HIGH CHANCE POPS SOUTH BEFORE
00Z WITH CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH.
AFTER 00Z...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH /AS STORMS ARE ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THE MOMENT/ AND CHANCE POPS SOUTH. WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH POPS THOUGH AS INSTABILITY WANES AFTER SUNSET. WILL BE DRY
ALL AREAS BEFORE 06Z.
THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 02Z.
FOR TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS NUMBERS SINCE
DRIER AIR IS TAKING IS TIME COMING SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN...THEN ON SKY AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH WITH MOST FEATURES THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
THE NAM KEEPS A DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND
THEN GENERATES ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG IT AT TIMES DURING THE
SHORT TERM. HOWEVER THE NAM LOOKS TOO HIGH WITH ITS
DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. THUS BELIEVE
NAM/S CONVECTION IS ALSO OVERDONE...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGH
IN CONTROL. FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND WHICH
LOOKS GOOD GIVEN EXPECTED SKY COVER AND DEWPOINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN OR BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY AS A FEW SHORT WAVES CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALLBLEND HANDLED THE PATTERN WELL SO DID NOT
DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/2100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF KHUF AND KBMG...WHICH
IS CURRENTLY PORTRAYED WELL IN TEMPO GROUPS. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CONTINUE WITH ONLY VCTS AT KIND AND KLAF SINCE MAIN THREAT FOR
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST TAF SITES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE ARRIVING AT TIME OF MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING AND
MODELS INDICATE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION.
RAPID REFRESH MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DEVELOPING BY 19Z-21Z. SPC HAS CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS SO
WILL STICK WITH VCTS AND CB GROUPS FOR THE 19Z THROUGH 01Z
TIMEFRAME. AS CONVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING CAN BETTER TIME THE
ARRIVAL WITH FM AND TEMPO GROUPS.
LOOK FOR SCATTERED CU THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO OUR REGION.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/TDUD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 181930 RRA
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT BRINGING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND
THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME MORE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
BRIEF COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...AND THESE WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE ISOLATED
STORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
AN UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD AID IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLD FRONT. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND AS WELL. WILL GO HIGH CHANCE POPS SOUTH BEFORE
00Z WITH CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH.
AFTER 00Z...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH /AS STORMS ARE ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THE MOMENT/ AND CHANCE POPS SOUTH. WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH POPS THOUGH AS INSTABILITY WANES AFTER SUNSET. WILL BE DRY
ALL AREAS BEFORE 06Z.
THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 02Z.
FOR TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS NUMBERS SINCE
DRIER AIR IS TAKING IS TIME COMING SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN...THEN ON SKY AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH WITH MOST FEATURES THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
THE NAM KEEPS A DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND
THEN GENERATES ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG IT AT TIMES DURING THE
SHORT TERM. HOWEVER THE NAM LOOKS TOO HIGH WITH ITS
DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. THUS BELIEVE
NAM/S CONVECTION IS ALSO OVERDONE...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGH
IN CONTROL. FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND WHICH
LOOKS GOOD GIVEN EXPECTED SKY COVER AND DEWPOINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN OR BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY AS A FEW SHORT WAVES CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALLBLEND HANDLED THE PATTERN WELL SO DID NOT
DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 181800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE ARRIVING AT TIME OF MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING AND
MODELS INDICATE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION.
RAPID REFRESH MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DEVELOPING BY 19Z-21Z. SPC HAS CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS SO
WILL STICK WITH VCTS AND CB GROUPS FOR THE 19Z THROUGH 01Z
TIMEFRAME. AS CONVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING CAN BETTER TIME THE
ARRIVAL WITH FM AND TEMPO GROUPS.
LOOK FOR SCATTERED CU THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO OUR REGION.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 181930
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT BRINGING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND
THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME MORE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
BRIEF COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...AND THESE WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE ISOLATED
STORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
AN UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD AID IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLD FRONT. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND AS WELL. WILL GO HIGH CHANCE POPS SOUTH BEFORE
00Z WITH CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH.
AFTER 00Z...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH /AS STORMS ARE ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THE MOMENT/ AND CHANCE POPS SOUTH. WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH POPS THOUGH AS INSTABILITY WANES AFTER SUNSET. WILL BE DRY
ALL AREAS BEFORE 06Z.
THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 02Z.
FOR TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS NUMBERS SINCE
DRIER AIR IS TAKING IS TIME COMING SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN...THEN ON SKY AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH WITH MOST FEATURES THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
THE NAM KEEPS A DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND
THEN GENERATES ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG IT AT TIMES DURING THE
SHORT TERM. HOWEVER THE NAM LOOKS TOO HIGH WITH ITS
DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. THUS BELIEVE
NAM/S CONVECTION IS ALSO OVERDONE...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGH
IN CONTROL. FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND WHICH
LOOKS GOOD GIVEN EXPECTED SKY COVER AND DEWPOINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN OR BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY AS A FEW SHORT WAVES CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALLBLEND HANDLED THE PATTERN WELL SO DID NOT
DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 181800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE ARRIVING AT TIME OF MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING AND
MODELS INDICATE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION.
RAPID REFRESH MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DEVELOPING BY 19Z-21Z. SPC HAS CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS SO
WILL STICK WITH VCTS AND CB GROUPS FOR THE 19Z THROUGH 01Z
TIMEFRAME. AS CONVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING CAN BETTER TIME THE
ARRIVAL WITH FM AND TEMPO GROUPS.
LOOK FOR SCATTERED CU THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO OUR REGION.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 181749
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
149 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY KEEPING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND
BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE
COULD START TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS ALLOWS LOW
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT VERY WARM HUMID AIR ARRIVES IN
TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BUT
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING TO THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...BUT THESE SHOWERS DO NOT LOOK TO LAST LONG
PER LATEST TRENDS. KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF AREA REMAINS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS PER STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FORECAST FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON POPS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE. MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD INSTABILITY WITH SFC BASED CAPES
OF 1000-2000 AND FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FRONTAL FORCING IS
FAIRLY WEAK...BUT A DECENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROVIDE THE EXTRA
LIFT NEEDED. SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST THOUGH AND THIS WILL BE
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE. THINK LOW END SEVERE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERNED MET NUMBERS ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN MAV.
NAM/S FEATURES ARE MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN OTHER
MODELS SO GENERALLY STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS THAT WERE
IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF/GEM ON FEATURES. BEST TIMING
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHEN
INSTABILITY PEAKS AND THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. FOR TEMPERATURES
GUIDANCE NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR SO USED AN AVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN TEMPERATURES.
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON HOW FAST PRECIP CHANCES WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE NAM HOLDING ON TO PRECIP
LONGER THAN THE GFS. WITH THE SHORTWAVE JUST ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AT 0Z SO EVEN THOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THINK
SOME CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.
INSTABILITY WILL COME TO AN END FAIRLY QUICKLY THOUGH WITH END OF
SOLAR HEATING AND ADVECTION IN OF DRY AIR SO WILL GO DRY ACROSS THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY.
TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COLD DRY ADVECTION IN
PLACE FAVORED COOLER MAV NUMBERS. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY PREFERRED THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS THAT BETTER MATCH THE COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES
OF 11-13C. PREFERRED WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WEDS NIGHT WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND POSSIBLY SOME CIRRUS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
THURSDAY AND MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHED THE UPPER
RIDGING PATTERN WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN OR BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY AS A FEW SHORT WAVES CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALLBLEND HANDLED THE PATTERN WELL SO DID NOT
DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 181800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE ARRIVING AT TIME OF MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING
AND MODELS INDICATE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION.
RAPID REFRESH MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DEVELOPING BY 19Z-21Z. SPC HAS CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS SO
WILL STICK WITH VCTS AND CB GROUPS FOR THE 19Z THROUGH 01Z
TIMEFRAME. AS CONVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING CAN BETTER TIME THE
ARRIVAL WITH FM AND TEMPO GROUPS.
LOOK FOR SCATTERED CU THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO OUR REGION.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/50
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 181609
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1209 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY KEEPING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND
BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE
COULD START TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS ALLOWS LOW
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT VERY WARM HUMID AIR ARRIVES IN
TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BUT
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING TO THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...BUT THESE SHOWERS DO NOT LOOK TO LAST LONG
PER LATEST TRENDS. KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF AREA REMAINS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS PER STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FORECAST FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON POPS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE. MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD INSTABILITY WITH SFC BASED CAPES
OF 1000-2000 AND FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FRONTAL FORCING IS
FAIRLY WEAK...BUT A DECENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROVIDE THE EXTRA
LIFT NEEDED. SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST THOUGH AND THIS WILL BE
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE. THINK LOW END SEVERE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERNED MET NUMBERS ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN MAV.
NAM/S FEATURES ARE MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN OTHER
MODELS SO GENERALLY STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS THAT WERE
IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF/GEM ON FEATURES. BEST TIMING
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHEN
INSTABILITY PEAKS AND THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. FOR TEMPERATURES
GUIDANCE NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR SO USED AN AVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN TEMPERATURES.
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON HOW FAST PRECIP CHANCES WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE NAM HOLDING ON TO PRECIP
LONGER THAN THE GFS. WITH THE SHORTWAVE JUST ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AT 0Z SO EVEN THOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THINK
SOME CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.
INSTABILITY WILL COME TO AN END FAIRLY QUICKLY THOUGH WITH END OF
SOLAR HEATING AND ADVECTION IN OF DRY AIR SO WILL GO DRY ACROSS THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY.
TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COLD DRY ADVECTION IN
PLACE FAVORED COOLER MAV NUMBERS. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY PREFERRED THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS THAT BETTER MATCH THE COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES
OF 11-13C. PREFERRED WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WEDS NIGHT WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND POSSIBLY SOME CIRRUS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
THURSDAY AND MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHED THE UPPER
RIDGING PATTERN WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS
ITS AXES MOVES EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLY ON
TO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY BY DAY 7. MODELS INDICATE A
COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL COME OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WITH ONE MOVING BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND A STRONGER
ONE TOWARDS THE END OF DAY 7. CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING IS LOW...
SO ONLY MADE SLIGHT CHANGES FROM ALL BLEND POPS.
MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO +18 TO +20
CELSIUS OVER THE WEEKEND AND COOL JUST SLIGHTLY DAY 7 WITH THE
SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE. RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
IN OVER WEEKEND THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE...ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO ALL BLEND TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 181800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE ARRIVING AT TIME OF MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING
AND MODELS INDICATE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION.
RAPID REFRESH MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DEVELOPING BY 19Z-21Z. SPC HAS CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS SO
WILL STICK WITH VCTS AND CB GROUPS FOR THE 19Z THROUGH 01Z
TIMEFRAME. AS CONVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING CAN BETTER TIME THE
ARRIVAL WITH FM AND TEMPO GROUPS.
LOOK FOR SCATTERED CU THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO OUR REGION.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/50
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 181421
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1021 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY KEEPING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND
BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE
COULD START TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS ALLOWS LOW
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT VERY WARM HUMID AIR ARRIVES IN
TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BUT
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING TO THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...BUT THESE SHOWERS DO NOT LOOK TO LAST LONG
PER LATEST TRENDS. KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF AREA REMAINS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS PER STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FORECAST FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON POPS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE. MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD INSTABILITY WITH SFC BASED CAPES
OF 1000-2000 AND FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FRONTAL FORCING IS
FAIRLY WEAK...BUT A DECENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROVIDE THE EXTRA
LIFT NEEDED. SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST THOUGH AND THIS WILL BE
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE. THINK LOW END SEVERE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERNED MET NUMBERS ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN MAV.
NAM/S FEATURES ARE MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN OTHER
MODELS SO GENERALLY STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS THAT WERE
IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF/GEM ON FEATURES. BEST TIMING
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHEN
INSTABILITY PEAKS AND THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. FOR TEMPERATURES
GUIDANCE NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR SO USED AN AVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN TEMPERATURES.
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON HOW FAST PRECIP CHANCES WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE NAM HOLDING ON TO PRECIP
LONGER THAN THE GFS. WITH THE SHORTWAVE JUST ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AT 0Z SO EVEN THOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THINK
SOME CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.
INSTABILITY WILL COME TO AN END FAIRLY QUICKLY THOUGH WITH END OF
SOLAR HEATING AND ADVECTION IN OF DRY AIR SO WILL GO DRY ACROSS THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY.
TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COLD DRY ADVECTION IN
PLACE FAVORED COOLER MAV NUMBERS. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY PREFERRED THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS THAT BETTER MATCH THE COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES
OF 11-13C. PREFERRED WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WEDS NIGHT WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND POSSIBLY SOME CIRRUS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
THURSDAY AND MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHED THE UPPER
RIDGING PATTERN WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS
ITS AXES MOVES EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLY ON
TO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY BY DAY 7. MODELS INDICATE A
COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL COME OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WITH ONE MOVING BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND A STRONGER
ONE TOWARDS THE END OF DAY 7. CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING IS LOW...
SO ONLY MADE SLIGHT CHANGES FROM ALL BLEND POPS.
MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO +18 TO +20
CELSIUS OVER THE WEEKEND AND COOL JUST SLIGHTLY DAY 7 WITH THE
SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE. RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
IN OVER WEEKEND THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE...ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO ALL BLEND TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 181200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
1430Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES ATTM. PREV DISC FOLLOWS...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS VCNTY KBMG AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SCATTERED CU TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEAST IOWA WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY THIS EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ARRIVING AT TIME
OF MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING AND MODELS INDICATE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION. RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING BY 19Z-20Z. SPC HAS CENTRAL
INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
WILL MENTION VCTS IN TAFS FROM ABOUT 19Z-01Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...
LOOK FOR SCATTERED CU THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO OUR REGION.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH UP TO 10 KNOTS BY MIDDAY AND NORTHEAST
3 TO 7 KNOTS TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/50
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...SMF/JH
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 181330
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
930 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY KEEPING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND
BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE
COULD START TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS ALLOWS LOW
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT VERY WARM HUMID AIR ARRIVES IN
TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BUT
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING TO THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...BUT THESE SHOWERS DO NOT LOOK TO LAST LONG
PER LATEST TRENDS. KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF AREA REMAINS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS PER STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FORECAST FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON POPS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE. MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD INSTABILITY WITH SFC BASED CAPES
OF 1000-2000 AND FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FRONTAL FORCING IS
FAIRLY WEAK...BUT A DECENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROVIDE THE EXTRA
LIFT NEEDED. SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST THOUGH AND THIS WILL BE
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE. THINK LOW END SEVERE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERNED MET NUMBERS ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN MAV.
NAM/S FEATURES ARE MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN OTHER
MODELS SO GENERALLY STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS THAT WERE
IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF/GEM ON FEATURES. BEST TIMING
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHEN
INSTABILITY PEAKS AND THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. FOR TEMPERATURES
GUIDANCE NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR SO USED AN AVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN TEMPERATURES.
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON HOW FAST PRECIP CHANCES WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE NAM HOLDING ON TO PRECIP
LONGER THAN THE GFS. WITH THE SHORTWAVE JUST ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AT 0Z SO EVEN THOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THINK
SOME CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.
INSTABILITY WILL COME TO AN END FAIRLY QUICKLY THOUGH WITH END OF
SOLAR HEATING AND ADVECTION IN OF DRY AIR SO WILL GO DRY ACROSS THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY.
TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COLD DRY ADVECTION IN
PLACE FAVORED COOLER MAV NUMBERS. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY PREFERRED THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS THAT BETTER MATCH THE COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES
OF 11-13C. PREFERRED WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WEDS NIGHT WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND POSSIBLY SOME CIRRUS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
THURSDAY AND MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHED THE UPPER
RIDGING PATTERN WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS
ITS AXES MOVES EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLY ON
TO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY BY DAY 7. MODELS INDICATE A
COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL COME OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WITH ONE MOVING BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND A STRONGER
ONE TOWARDS THE END OF DAY 7. CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING IS LOW...
SO ONLY MADE SLIGHT CHANGES FROM ALL BLEND POPS.
MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO +18 TO +20
CELSIUS OVER THE WEEKEND AND COOL JUST SLIGHTLY DAY 7 WITH THE
SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE. RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
IN OVER WEEKEND THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE...ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO ALL BLEND TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS VCNTY KBMG AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SCATTERED CU TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEAST IOWA WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY THIS EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ARRIVING AT TIME
OF MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING AND MODELS INDICATE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION. RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING BY 19Z-20Z. SPC HAS CENTRAL
INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
WILL MENTION VCTS IN TAFS FROM ABOUT 19Z-01Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...
LOOK FOR SCATTERED CU THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO OUR REGION.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH UP TO 10 KNOTS BY MIDDAY AND NORTHEAST
3 TO 7 KNOTS TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/50
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 181040
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
640 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY KEEPING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND
BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE
COULD START TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS ALLOWS LOW
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT VERY WARM HUMID AIR ARRIVES IN
TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
FORECAST FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON POPS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY ALONG WITH
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE. MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD INSTABILITY WITH SFC
BASED CAPES OF 1000-2000 AND FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
FRONTAL FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK...BUT A DECENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE
SHOULD PROVIDE THE EXTRA LIFT NEEDED. SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
THOUGH AND THIS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE.
THINK LOW END SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.
AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERNED MET NUMBERS ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN MAV.
NAM/S FEATURES ARE MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN OTHER
MODELS SO GENERALLY STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS THAT WERE
IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF/GEM ON FEATURES. BEST TIMING
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHEN
INSTABILITY PEAKS AND THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. FOR TEMPERATURES
GUIDANCE NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR SO USED AN AVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN TEMPERATURES.
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON HOW FAST PRECIP CHANCES WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE NAM HOLDING ON TO PRECIP
LONGER THAN THE GFS. WITH THE SHORTWAVE JUST ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AT 0Z SO EVEN THOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THINK
SOME CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.
INSTABILITY WILL COME TO AN END FAIRLY QUICKLY THOUGH WITH END OF
SOLAR HEATING AND ADVECTION IN OF DRY AIR SO WILL GO DRY ACROSS THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY.
TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COLD DRY ADVECTION IN
PLACE FAVORED COOLER MAV NUMBERS. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY PREFERRED THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS THAT BETTER MATCH THE COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES
OF 11-13C. PREFERRED WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WEDS NIGHT WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND POSSIBLY SOME CIRRUS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
THURSDAY AND MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHED THE UPPER
RIDGING PATTERN WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS
ITS AXES MOVES EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLY ON
TO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY BY DAY 7. MODELS INDICATE A
COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL COME OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WITH ONE MOVING BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND A STRONGER
ONE TOWARDS THE END OF DAY 7. CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING IS LOW...
SO ONLY MADE SLIGHT CHANGES FROM ALL BLEND POPS.
MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO +18 TO +20
CELSIUS OVER THE WEEKEND AND COOL JUST SLIGHTLY DAY 7 WITH THE
SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE. RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
IN OVER WEEKEND THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE...ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO ALL BLEND TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS VCNTY KBMG AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SCATTERED CU TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEAST IOWA WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY THIS EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ARRIVING AT TIME
OF MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING AND MODELS INDICATE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION. RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING BY 19Z-20Z. SPC HAS CENTRAL
INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
WILL MENTION VCTS IN TAFS FROM ABOUT 19Z-01Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...
LOOK FOR SCATTERED CU THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO OUR REGION.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH UP TO 10 KNOTS BY MIDDAY AND NORTHEAST
3 TO 7 KNOTS TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 180814
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
414 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY KEEPING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND
BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE
COULD START TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS ALLOWS LOW
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT VERY WARM HUMID AIR ARRIVES IN
TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
FORECAST FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON POPS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY ALONG WITH
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE. MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD INSTABILITY WITH SFC
BASED CAPES OF 1000-2000 AND FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
FRONTAL FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK...BUT A DECENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE
SHOULD PROVIDE THE EXTRA LIFT NEEDED. SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
THOUGH AND THIS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE.
THINK LOW END SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.
AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERNED MET NUMBERS ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN MAV.
NAM/S FEATURES ARE MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN OTHER
MODELS SO GENERALLY STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS THAT WERE
IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF/GEM ON FEATURES. BEST TIMING
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHEN
INSTABILITY PEAKS AND THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. FOR TEMPERATURES
GUIDANCE NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR SO USED AN AVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN TEMPERATURES.
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON HOW FAST PRECIP CHANCES WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE NAM HOLDING ON TO PRECIP
LONGER THAN THE GFS. WITH THE SHORTWAVE JUST ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AT 0Z SO EVEN THOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THINK
SOME CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.
INSTABILITY WILL COME TO AN END FAIRLY QUICKLY THOUGH WITH END OF
SOLAR HEATING AND ADVECTION IN OF DRY AIR SO WILL GO DRY ACROSS THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY.
TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COLD DRY ADVECTION IN
PLACE FAVORED COOLER MAV NUMBERS. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY PREFERRED THE COOLER
MET NUMBERS THAT BETTER MATCH THE COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF
11-13C. PREFERRED WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WEDS NIGHT WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND POSSIBLY SOME CIRRUS. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
THURSDAY AND MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHED THE UPPER
RIDGING PATTERN WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS
ITS AXES MOVES EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLY ON
TO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY BY DAY 7. MODELS INDICATE A
COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL COME OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WITH ONE MOVING BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND A STRONGER
ONE TOWARDS THE END OF DAY 7. CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING IS LOW...
SO ONLY MADE SLIGHT CHANGES FROM ALL BLEND POPS.
MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO +18 TO +20
CELSIUS OVER THE WEEKEND AND COOL JUST SLIGHTLY DAY 7 WITH THE
SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE. RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
IN OVER WEEKEND THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE...ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO ALL BLEND TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR.
MOST ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIED OFF WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING...BUT REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO OVERNIGHT. STILL...THIS IS TOO LOW PROBABILITY TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PREVENT A RETURN
OF IFR CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. WILL CARRY MVFR FOG AT
THE OUTLYING SITES OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW BUT TOO LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A MENTION WITH THIS PACKAGE.
WINDS WILL BE 10KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 180507
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
100 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM CANADA. THUS AFTER SOME LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS IN
THE MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK.
ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH DUMPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL HELP
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK AND AS THE
PATTERN PROGRESSES...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION BY
LATE WEEK. COOL DRY NORTHEAST AND EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE SOUTH LATE WEEK RESULTING IN TEMPERATURE CLIMB FROM LOW/MID
80S WEDNESDAY TOWARD 90 BY WEEKS END.
WEEK WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW AND INCREASED HUMIDITY BRINGS A
RETURN OF CHANCES FOR STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 957 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH HAS BEEN DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
SO BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS. AIR MASS OVER THE AREA REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...SO POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXISTS
ALONG ANY POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COMING OUT OF CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTH.
CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM RATHER EXTENSIVE...SO WILL BEEF UP THE CLOUD
WORDING FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED BY THIS
TIME...SO LOWS TONIGHT STILL LOOK ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AND HOW LONG
IT WILL LAST. NAM MOS TOO DRY TONIGHT WHILE MAV MOS MORE ON TARGET
AND REALLY EXPECTING DIURNAL TREND EXCEPT FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE AND INFLUENCE OF CIRRUS OUTFLOW
ON SURFACE HEATING IS HELPING TO SET UP BOUNDARIES FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON IN CENTRAL INDIANA.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHWEST THROUGH BOOTHEEL MISSOURI AND BEYOND HAS PROVIDED BETTER
FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WEAK STEERING WINDS RESULTING
IN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AS REMNANTS OF OKLAHOMA MCS AND SURFACE INDUCED CONVECTION IN THE
BOOTHEEL MOVE ENE...OUR HIGHEST THREATS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE
IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ALL AREAS HOWEVER WILL SEE MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
CURRENT LOW TEMP FORECASTS APPEAR ON TARGET AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL
ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER CONVECTION WILL OCCUR BEFORE DRIER
AIR BUILDS IN. WILL LEAN TOWARD HIGHER POPS IN NAM MODEL. ALL
MODELS SHOW UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
AND INTO INDIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS SHOW A PRETTY
DECENT TROUGH WITH THIS FEATURE BUT QPF VARIES. DESPITE SURFACE
SHOWING MINIMAL CONVERGENCE DO EXPECT SURFACE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY
ACTING WITH MODERATE WARMTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH COMING IN DURING PEAK HEATING TO AID IN SCATTERED
STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL...WILL
KEEP THESE POPS HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. AS TROUGH
PUSHES EAST AND HEATING DIMINISHES TUESDAY EVENING...RAIN THREAT
WILL EXIT EAST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE EVENING. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL PROVIDE A DRY SPELL THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
GOING TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WERE PRETTY GOOD AND HAVE BLENDED
THOSE WITH COMBINATION OF MOS GUIDANCES. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS
COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN AND BREAK DOWN AS A FEW SHORT WAVES CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION AND BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALLBLEND HANDLED
THE PATTERN WELL SO DID NOT DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR.
MOST ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIED OFF WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING...BUT REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO OVERNIGHT. STILL...THIS IS TOO LOW PROBABILITY TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PREVENT A RETURN
OF IFR CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. WILL CARRY MVFR FOG AT
THE OUTLYING SITES OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW BUT TOO LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A MENTION WITH THIS PACKAGE.
WINDS WILL BE 10KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/JAS
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 180230
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM CANADA. THUS AFTER SOME LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS IN
THE MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK.
ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH DUMPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL HELP
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK AND AS THE
PATTERN PROGRESSES...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION BY
LATE WEEK. COOL DRY NORTHEAST AND EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE SOUTH LATE WEEK RESULTING IN TEMPERATURE CLIMB FROM LOW/MID
80S WEDNESDAY TOWARD 90 BY WEEKS END.
WEEK WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW AND INCREASED HUMIDITY BRINGS A
RETURN OF CHANCES FOR STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 957 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH HAS BEEN DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
SO BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS. AIR MASS OVER THE AREA REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...SO POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXISTS
ALONG ANY POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COMING OUT OF CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTH.
CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM RATHER EXTENSIVE...SO WILL BEEF UP THE CLOUD
WORDING FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED BY THIS
TIME...SO LOWS TONIGHT STILL LOOK ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AND HOW LONG
IT WILL LAST. NAM MOS TOO DRY TONIGHT WHILE MAV MOS MORE ON TARGET
AND REALLY EXPECTING DIURNAL TREND EXCEPT FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE AND INFLUENCE OF CIRRUS OUTFLOW
ON SURFACE HEATING IS HELPING TO SET UP BOUNDARIES FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON IN CENTRAL INDIANA.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHWEST THROUGH BOOTHEEL MISSOURI AND BEYOND HAS PROVIDED BETTER
FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WEAK STEERING WINDS RESULTING
IN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AS REMNANTS OF OKLAHOMA MCS AND SURFACE INDUCED CONVECTION IN THE
BOOTHEEL MOVE ENE...OUR HIGHEST THREATS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE
IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ALL AREAS HOWEVER WILL SEE MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
CURRENT LOW TEMP FORECASTS APPEAR ON TARGET AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL
ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER CONVECTION WILL OCCUR BEFORE DRIER
AIR BUILDS IN. WILL LEAN TOWARD HIGHER POPS IN NAM MODEL. ALL
MODELS SHOW UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
AND INTO INDIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS SHOW A PRETTY
DECENT TROUGH WITH THIS FEATURE BUT QPF VARIES. DESPITE SURFACE
SHOWING MINIMAL CONVERGENCE DO EXPECT SURFACE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY
ACTING WITH MODERATE WARMTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH COMING IN DURING PEAK HEATING TO AID IN SCATTERED
STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL...WILL
KEEP THESE POPS HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. AS TROUGH
PUSHES EAST AND HEATING DIMINISHES TUESDAY EVENING...RAIN THREAT
WILL EXIT EAST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE EVENING. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL PROVIDE A DRY SPELL THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
GOING TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WERE PRETTY GOOD AND HAVE BLENDED
THOSE WITH COMBINATION OF MOS GUIDANCES. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS
COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN AND BREAK DOWN AS A FEW SHORT WAVES CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION AND BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALLBLEND HANDLED
THE PATTERN WELL SO DID NOT DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/03Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
NO CHANGES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION AT BMG AS STORMS HAVE BEEN
VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD PREVENT A
RETURN OF IFR CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. WILL CARRY MVFR
FOG ALL SITES OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW BUT TOO LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A MENTION WITH THIS PACKAGE.
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/JAS
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 180158
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
957 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM CANADA. THUS AFTER SOME LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS IN
THE MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK.
ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH DUMPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL HELP
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK AND AS THE
PATTERN PROGRESSES...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION BY
LATE WEEK. COOL DRY NORTHEAST AND EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE SOUTH LATE WEEK RESULTING IN TEMPERATURE CLIMB FROM LOW/MID
80S WEDNESDAY TOWARD 90 BY WEEKS END.
WEEK WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW AND INCREASED HUMIDITY BRINGS A
RETURN OF CHANCES FOR STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 957 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH HAS BEEN DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
SO BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS. AIR MASS OVER THE AREA REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...SO POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXISTS
ALONG ANY POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COMING OUT OF CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTH.
CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM RATHER EXTENSIVE...SO WILL BEEF UP THE CLOUD
WORDING FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED BY THIS
TIME...SO LOWS TONIGHT STILL LOOK ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AND HOW LONG
IT WILL LAST. NAM MOS TOO DRY TONIGHT WHILE MAV MOS MORE ON TARGET
AND REALLY EXPECTING DIURNAL TREND EXCEPT FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE AND INFLUENCE OF CIRRUS OUTFLOW
ON SURFACE HEATING IS HELPING TO SET UP BOUNDARIES FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON IN CENTRAL INDIANA.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHWEST THROUGH BOOTHEEL MISSOURI AND BEYOND HAS PROVIDED BETTER
FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WEAK STEERING WINDS RESULTING
IN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AS REMNANTS OF OKLAHOMA MCS AND SURFACE INDUCED CONVECTION IN THE
BOOTHEEL MOVE ENE...OUR HIGHEST THREATS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE
IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ALL AREAS HOWEVER WILL SEE MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
CURRENT LOW TEMP FORECASTS APPEAR ON TARGET AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL
ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER CONVECTION WILL OCCUR BEFORE DRIER
AIR BUILDS IN. WILL LEAN TOWARD HIGHER POPS IN NAM MODEL. ALL
MODELS SHOW UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
AND INTO INDIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS SHOW A PRETTY
DECENT TROUGH WITH THIS FEATURE BUT QPF VARIES. DESPITE SURFACE
SHOWING MINIMAL CONVERGENCE DO EXPECT SURFACE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY
ACTING WITH MODERATE WARMTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH COMING IN DURING PEAK HEATING TO AID IN SCATTERED
STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL...WILL
KEEP THESE POPS HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. AS TROUGH
PUSHES EAST AND HEATING DIMINISHES TUESDAY EVENING...RAIN THREAT
WILL EXIT EAST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE EVENING. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL PROVIDE A DRY SPELL THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
GOING TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WERE PRETTY GOOD AND HAVE BLENDED
THOSE WITH COMBINATION OF MOS GUIDANCES. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS
COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN AND BREAK DOWN AS A FEW SHORT WAVES CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION AND BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALLBLEND HANDLED
THE PATTERN WELL SO DID NOT DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION AT BMG AS STORMS HAVE BEEN
VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD PREVENT A
RETURN OF IFR CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. WILL CARRY MVFR
FOG ALL SITES OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW BUT TOO LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A MENTION WITH THIS PACKAGE.
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/JAS
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 172305
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
705 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM CANADA. THUS AFTER SOME LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS IN
THE MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK.
ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH DUMPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL HELP
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK AND AS THE
PATTERN PROGRESSES...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION BY
LATE WEEK. COOL DRY NORTHEAST AND EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE SOUTH LATE WEEK RESULTING IN TEMPERATURE CLIMB FROM LOW/MID
80S WEDNESDAY TOWARD 90 BY WEEKS END.
WEEK WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW AND INCREASED HUMIDITY BRINGS A
RETURN OF CHANCES FOR STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AND HOW LONG
IT WILL LAST. NAM MOS TOO DRY TONIGHT WHILE MAV MOS MORE ON TARGET
AND REALLY EXPECTING DIURNAL TREND EXCEPT FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE AND INFLUENCE OF CIRRUS OUTFLOW
ON SURFACE HEATING IS HELPING TO SET UP BOUNDARIES FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON IN CENTRAL INDIANA.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHWEST THROUGH BOOTHEEL MISSOURI AND BEYOND HAS PROVIDED BETTER
FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WEAK STEERING WINDS RESULTING
IN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AS REMNANTS OF OKLAHOMA MCS AND SURFACE INDUCED CONVECTION IN THE
BOOTHEEL MOVE ENE...OUR HIGHEST THREATS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE
IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ALL AREAS HOWEVER WILL SEE MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
CURRENT LOW TEMP FORECASTS APPEAR ON TARGET AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL
ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER CONVECTION WILL OCCUR BEFORE DRIER
AIR BUILDS IN. WILL LEAN TOWARD HIGHER POPS IN NAM MODEL. ALL
MODELS SHOW UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
AND INTO INDIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS SHOW A PRETTY
DECENT TROUGH WITH THIS FEATURE BUT QPF VARIES. DESPITE SURFACE
SHOWING MINIMAL CONVERGENCE DO EXPECT SURFACE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY
ACTING WITH MODERATE WARMTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH COMING IN DURING PEAK HEATING TO AID IN SCATTERED
STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL...WILL
KEEP THESE POPS HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. AS TROUGH
PUSHES EAST AND HEATING DIMINISHES TUESDAY EVENING...RAIN THREAT
WILL EXIT EAST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE EVENING. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL PROVIDE A DRY SPELL THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
GOING TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WERE PRETTY GOOD AND HAVE BLENDED
THOSE WITH COMBINATION OF MOS GUIDANCES. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS
COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN AND BREAK DOWN AS A FEW SHORT WAVES CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION AND BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALLBLEND HANDLED
THE PATTERN WELL SO DID NOT DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION AT BMG AS STORMS HAVE BEEN
VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD PREVENT A
RETURN OF IFR CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. WILL CARRY MVFR
FOG ALL SITES OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW BUT TOO LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A MENTION WITH THIS PACKAGE.
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 172028
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM CANADA. THUS AFTER SOME LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS IN
THE MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK.
ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH DUMPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL HELP
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK AND AS THE
PATTERN PROGRESSES...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION BY
LATE WEEK. COOL DRY NORTHEAST AND EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE SOUTH LATE WEEK RESULTING IN TEMPERATURE CLIMB FROM LOW/MID
80S WEDNESDAY TOWARD 90 BY WEEKS END.
WEEK WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW AND INCREASED HUMIDITY BRINGS A
RETURN OF CHANCES FOR STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AND HOW LONG
IT WILL LAST. NAM MOS TOO DRY TONIGHT WHILE MAV MOS MORE ON TARGET
AND REALLY EXPECTING DIURNAL TREND EXCEPT FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE AND INFLUENCE OF CIRRUS OUTFLOW
ON SURFACE HEATING IS HELPING TO SET UP BOUNDARIES FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON IN CENTRAL INDIANA.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHWEST THROUGH BOOTHEEL MISSOURI AND BEYOND HAS PROVIDED BETTER
FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WEAK STEERING WINDS RESULTING
IN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AS REMNANTS OF OKLAHOMA MCS AND SURFACE INDUCED CONVECTION IN THE
BOOTHEEL MOVE ENE...OUR HIGHEST THREATS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE
IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ALL AREAS HOWEVER WILL SEE MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
CURRENT LOW TEMP FORECASTS APPEAR ON TARGET AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL
ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER CONVECTION WILL OCCUR BEFORE DRIER
AIR BUILDS IN. WILL LEAN TOWARD HIGHER POPS IN NAM MODEL. ALL
MODELS SHOW UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
AND INTO INDIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS SHOW A PRETTY
DECENT TROUGH WITH THIS FEATURE BUT QPF VARIES. DESPITE SURFACE
SHOWING MINIMAL CONVERGENCE DO EXPECT SURFACE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY
ACTING WITH MODERATE WARMTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH COMING IN DURING PEAK HEATING TO AID IN SCATTERED
STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL...WILL
KEEP THESE POPS HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. AS TROUGH
PUSHES EAST AND HEATING DIMINISHES TUESDAY EVENING...RAIN THREAT
WILL EXIT EAST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE EVENING. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL PROVIDE A DRY SPELL THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
GOING TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WERE PRETTY GOOD AND HAVE BLENDED
THOSE WITH COMBINATION OF MOS GUIDANCES. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS
COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN AND BREAK DOWN AS A FEW SHORT WAVES CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION AND BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALLBLEND HANDLED
THE PATTERN WELL SO DID NOT DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/21Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
CHANGED WINDS TO VARIABLE AT IND TO MATCH OBS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 1224 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME SCT TO BKN CU CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING MFVR VISIBILITIES TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN FOG MIXING OUT AROUND 14Z TUESDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 171930
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
330 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM CANADA. THUS AFTER SOME LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS IN
THE MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK.
ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH DUMPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL HELP
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK AND AS THE
PATTERN PROGRESSES...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION BY
LATE WEEK. COOL DRY NORTHEAST AND EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE SOUTH LATE WEEK RESULTING IN TEMPERATURE CLIMB FROM LOW/MID
80S WEDNESDAY TOWARD 90 BY WEEKS END.
WEEK WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW AND INCREASED HUMIDITY BRINGS A
RETURN OF CHANCES FOR STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AND HOW LONG
IT WILL LAST. NAM MOS TOO DRY TONIGHT WHILE MAV MOS MORE ON TARGET
AND REALLY EXPECTING DIURNAL TREND EXCEPT FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE AND INFLUENCE OF CIRRUS OUTFLOW
ON SURFACE HEATING IS HELPING TO SET UP BOUNDARIES FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON IN CENTRAL INDIANA.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHWEST THROUGH BOOTHEEL MISSOURI AND BEYOND HAS PROVIDED BETTER
FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WEAK STEERING WINDS RESULTING
IN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AS REMNANTS OF OKLAHOMA MCS AND SURFACE INDUCED CONVECTION IN THE
BOOTHEEL MOVE ENE...OUR HIGHEST THREATS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE
IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ALL AREAS HOWEVER WILL SEE MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
CURRENT LOW TEMP FORECASTS APPEAR ON TARGET AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL
ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER CONVECTION WILL OCCUR BEFORE DRIER
AIR BUILDS IN. WILL LEAN TOWARD HIGHER POPS IN NAM MODEL. ALL
MODELS SHOW UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
AND INTO INDIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS SHOW A PRETTY
DECENT TROUGH WITH THIS FEATURE BUT QPF VARIES. DESPITE SURFACE
SHOWING MINIMAL CONVERGENCE DO EXPECT SURFACE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY
ACTING WITH MODERATE WARMTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH COMING IN DURING PEAK HEATING TO AID IN SCATTERED
STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL...WILL
KEEP THESE POPS HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. AS TROUGH
PUSHES EAST AND HEATING DIMINISHES TUESDAY EVENING...RAIN THREAT
WILL EXIT EAST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE EVENING. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL PROVIDE A DRY SPELL THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
GOING TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WERE PRETTY GOOD AND HAVE BLENDED
THOSE WITH COMBINATION OF MOS GUIDANCES. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS
COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN AND BREAK DOWN AS A FEW SHORT WAVES CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION AND BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALLBLEND HANDLED
THE PATTERN WELL SO DID NOT DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME SCT TO BKN CU CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING MFVR VISIBILITIES TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN FOG MIXING OUT AROUND 14Z TUESDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 171800
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
200 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WAS OVER THE ROCKIES. WATER VAPOR IR SATELLITE INDICATED AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AND MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THERE WILL BE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER OVER
THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST BUILDS
TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER SYSTEMS MAY PRODUCE
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 938 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEGUN LIFTING INTO STRATUS DECKS AND
SHOULD CONTINUE BURN TOWARD A SCATTERED CUMULUS SKY BY LATE
MORNING. FEW MODERATE CUMULUS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES OUTSIDE OF
FOG THIS MORNING HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND LESS NUMEROUS IN
THE LAST HOUR. ALSO BY LATE MORNING...CONTINUED SPREAD OF CIRRUS
FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS STORMS SHOULD KEEP CUMULUS FROM GOING BROKEN.
OTHER THAN BEING SOMEWHAT BEHIND ON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE WE
SHOULD CATCH UP BY LATE MORNING AND STILL EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER ONE MOVING INTO OUR
REGION LATE TUESDAY. ON THIS RUN MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE AND A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE 2ND
ONE. AS A RESULT WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND
INCREASE THEM A LITTLE ON TUESDAY.
THE NAM IS QUITE A BIT WETTER WITH TUESDAY SYSTEM AS THEY INDICATE
LOTS OF POOLING OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ALL MODELS
INDICATE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES QUITE UNSTABLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LINGER INTO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY AND
COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THE MET MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM AND WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN AND BREAK DOWN AS A FEW SHORT WAVES CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION AND BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALLBLEND HANDLED
THE PATTERN WELL SO DID NOT DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME SCT TO BKN CU CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING MFVR VISIBILITIES TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN FOG MIXING OUT AROUND 14Z TUESDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 171627
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1227 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WAS OVER THE ROCKIES. WATER VAPOR IR SATELLITE INDICATED AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AND MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THERE WILL BE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER OVER
THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST BUILDS
TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER SYSTEMS MAY PRODUCE
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 938 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEGUN LIFTING INTO STRATUS DECKS AND
SHOULD CONTINUE BURN TOWARD A SCATTERED CUMULUS SKY BY LATE
MORNING. FEW MODERATE CUMULUS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES OUTSIDE OF
FOG THIS MORNING HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND LESS NUMEROUS IN
THE LAST HOUR. ALSO BY LATE MORNING...CONTINUED SPREAD OF CIRRUS
FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS STORMS SHOULD KEEP CUMULUS FROM GOING BROKEN.
OTHER THAN BEING SOMEWHAT BEHIND ON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE WE
SHOULD CATCH UP BY LATE MORNING AND STILL EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER ONE MOVING INTO OUR
REGION LATE TUESDAY. ON THIS RUN MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE AND A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE 2ND
ONE. AS A RESULT WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND
INCREASE THEM A LITTLE ON TUESDAY.
THE NAM IS QUITE A BIT WETTER WITH TUESDAY SYSTEM AS THEY INDICATE
LOTS OF POOLING OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ALL MODELS
INDICATE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES QUITE UNSTABLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LINGER INTO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY AND
COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THE MET MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM AND WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
LONG TERM...BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR
THE MOST PART DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES
COULD MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SNEAK INTO THE FORECAST. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY BUT THEN A CHANCE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES. ALLBLEND HANDLED THE PATTERN WELL SO DID
NOT DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME SCT TO BKN CU CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING MFVR VISIBILITIES TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN FOG MIXING OUT AROUND 14Z TUESDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 171428
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1028 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WAS OVER THE ROCKIES. WATER VAPOR IR SATELLITE INDICATED AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AND MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THERE WILL BE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER OVER
THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST BUILDS
TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER SYSTEMS MAY PRODUCE
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 938 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEGUN LIFTING INTO STRATUS DECKS AND
SHOULD CONTINUE BURN TOWARD A SCATTERED CUMULUS SKY BY LATE
MORNING. FEW MODERATE CUMULUS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES OUTSIDE OF
FOG THIS MORNING HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND LESS NUMEROUS IN
THE LAST HOUR. ALSO BY LATE MORNING...CONTINUED SPREAD OF CIRRUS
FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS STORMS SHOULD KEEP CUMULUS FROM GOING BROKEN.
OTHER THAN BEING SOMEWHAT BEHIND ON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE WE
SHOULD CATCH UP BY LATE MORNING AND STILL EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER ONE MOVING INTO OUR
REGION LATE TUESDAY. ON THIS RUN MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE AND A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE 2ND
ONE. AS A RESULT WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND
INCREASE THEM A LITTLE ON TUESDAY.
THE NAM IS QUITE A BIT WETTER WITH TUESDAY SYSTEM AS THEY INDICATE
LOTS OF POOLING OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ALL MODELS
INDICATE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES QUITE UNSTABLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LINGER INTO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY AND
COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THE MET MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM AND WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
LONG TERM...BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR
THE MOST PART DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES
COULD MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SNEAK INTO THE FORECAST. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY BUT THEN A CHANCE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES. ALLBLEND HANDLED THE PATTERN WELL SO DID
NOT DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
1430Z UPDATE...ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR IND BACK TO MFVR AND
EVEN VFR. IND SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR AND WILL
JOIN THE REST OF THE TAFS IN VFR CONDITIONS BY 1530-1600Z.
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SITES SHOULD MIX OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS WITH HELP FROM THE SUN. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. EXPECT TO SEE SOME SCT TO BKN CU DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...SMF/CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 171342
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
942 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WAS OVER THE ROCKIES. WATER VAPOR IR SATELLITE INDICATED AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AND MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THERE WILL BE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER OVER
THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST BUILDS
TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER SYSTEMS MAY PRODUCE
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 938 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEGUN LIFTING INTO STRATUS DECKS AND
SHOULD CONTINUE BURN TOWARD A SCATTERED CUMULUS SKY BY LATE
MORNING. FEW MODERATE CUMULUS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES OUTSIDE OF
FOG THIS MORNING HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND LESS NUMEROUS IN
THE LAST HOUR. ALSO BY LATE MORNING...CONTINUED SPREAD OF CIRRUS
FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS STORMS SHOULD KEEP CUMULUS FROM GOING BROKEN.
OTHER THAN BEING SOMEWHAT BEHIND ON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE WE
SHOULD CATCH UP BY LATE MORNING AND STILL EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER ONE MOVING INTO OUR
REGION LATE TUESDAY. ON THIS RUN MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE AND A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE 2ND
ONE. AS A RESULT WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND
INCREASE THEM A LITTLE ON TUESDAY.
THE NAM IS QUITE A BIT WETTER WITH TUESDAY SYSTEM AS THEY INDICATE
LOTS OF POOLING OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ALL MODELS
INDICATE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES QUITE UNSTABLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LINGER INTO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY AND
COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THE MET MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM AND WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
LONG TERM...BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR
THE MOST PART DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES
COULD MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SNEAK INTO THE FORECAST. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY BUT THEN A CHANCE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES. ALLBLEND HANDLED THE PATTERN WELL SO DID
NOT DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SITES SHOULD MIX OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS WITH HELP FROM THE SUN. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. EXPECT TO SEE SOME SCT TO BKN CU DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 171035
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
635 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WAS OVER THE ROCKIES. WATER VAPOR IR SATELLITE INDICATED AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AND MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THERE WILL BE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER OVER
THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST BUILDS
TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER SYSTEMS MAY PRODUCE
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE HOW QUICKLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE
LATER TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND THE
PLAINS. RAPID REFRESH INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP MOVE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE
LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WEST AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE CAPES OF UP TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST A CAP WILL
LIMIT CONVECTION UNTIL THIS EVENING.
AREAS OF FOG WERE OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING
WITH HALF MILE VISIBILITIES AT BLOOMINGTON. INCREASING CLOUDS
SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG...BUT NERVELESS WILL CONTINUE PATCHY EARLY FOG
ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSER TO COOLER MAV NUMBERS BASED ON
850 MP TEMPERATURES OF AROUND +16 ACROSS OUR AREA AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY UPSTREAM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER ONE MOVING INTO OUR
REGION LATE TUESDAY. ON THIS RUN MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE AND A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE 2ND
ONE. AS A RESULT WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND
INCREASE THEM A LITTLE ON TUESDAY.
THE NAM IS QUITE A BIT WETTER WITH TUESDAY SYSTEM AS THEY INDICATE
LOTS OF POOLING OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ALL MODELS
INDICATE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES QUITE UNSTABLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LINGER INTO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY AND
COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THE MET MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM AND WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
LONG TERM...BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR
THE MOST PART DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES
COULD MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SNEAK INTO THE FORECAST. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY BUT THEN A CHANCE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES. ALLBLEND HANDLED THE PATTERN WELL SO DID
NOT DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SITES SHOULD MIX OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS WITH HELP FROM THE SUN. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. EXPECT TO SEE SOME SCT TO BKN CU DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 170822
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
422 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WAS OVER THE ROCKIES. WATER VAPOR IR SATELLITE INDICATED AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AND MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THERE WILL BE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER OVER
THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST BUILDS
TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER SYSTEMS MAY PRODUCE
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE HOW QUICKLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE
LATER TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND THE
PLAINS. RAPID REFRESH INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP MOVE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE
LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WEST AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE CAPES OF UP TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST A CAP WILL
LIMIT CONVECTION UNTIL THIS EVENING.
AREAS OF FOG WERE OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING
WITH HALF MILE VISIBILITIES AT BLOOMINGTON. INCREASING CLOUDS
SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG...BUT NERVELESS WILL CONTINUE PATCHY EARLY FOG
ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSER TO COOLER MAV NUMBERS BASED ON
850 MP TEMPERATURES OF AROUND +16 ACROSS OUR AREA AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY UPSTREAM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER ONE MOVING INTO OUR
REGION LATE TUESDAY. ON THIS RUN MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE AND A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE 2ND
ONE. AS A RESULT WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND
INCREASE THEM A LITTLE ON TUESDAY.
THE NAM IS QUITE A BIT WETTER WITH TUESDAY SYSTEM AS THEY INDICATE
LOTS OF POOLING OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ALL MODELS
INDICATE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES QUITE UNSTABLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LINGER INTO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY AND
COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THE MET MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM AND WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
LONG TERM...BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR
THE MOST PART DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES
COULD MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SNEAK INTO THE FORECAST. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY BUT THEN A CHANCE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES. ALLBLEND HANDLED THE PATTERN WELL SO DID
NOT DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/09Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
MVFR FOG OCCURRING AT SEVERAL SITES ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT A FEW LOCATIONS. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 2
DEGREES OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT TO
CALM. ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR LIFR FOR KBMG AND KLAF BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS AND MAY NEED TO DO SO AT KHUF BUT WILL
MONITOR FOR NOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
AREA BUT LIKELIHOOD IS SMALL THAT ANY ONE WOULD IMPACT A TAF SITE.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO
EXCLUDE FROM TAFS. SREF THUNDER PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THIS.
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...NIELD/CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 170751
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WAS OVER THE ROCKIES. WATER VAPOR IR SATELLITE INDICATED AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AND MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THERE WILL BE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER OVER
THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST BUILDS
TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER SYSTEMS MAY PRODUCE
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE HOW QUICKLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE
LATER TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND THE
PLAINS. RAPID REFRESH INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP MOVE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE
LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WEST AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE CAPES OF UP TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST A CAP WILL
LIMIT CONVECTION UNTIL THIS EVENING.
AREAS OF FOG WERE OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING
WITH HALF MILE VISIBILITIES AT BLOOMINGTON. INCREASING CLOUDS
SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG...BUT NERVELESS WILL CONTINUE PATCHY EARLY FOG
ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSER TO COOLER MAV NUMBERS BASED ON
850 MP TEMPERATURES OF AROUND +16 ACROSS OUR AREA AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY UPSTREAM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER ONE MOVING INTO OUR
REGION LATE TUESDAY. ON THIS RUN MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE AND A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE 2ND
ONE. AS A RESULT WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND
INCREASE THEM A LITTLE ON TUESDAY.
THE NAM IS QUITE A BIT WETTER WITH TUESDAY SYSTEM AS THEY INDICATE
LOTS OF POOLING OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ALL MODELS
INDICATE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES QUITE UNSTABLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LINGER INTO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY AND
COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THE MET MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM AND WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
LONG TERM...BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR
THE MOST PART DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES
COULD MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SNEAK INTO THE FORECAST. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY BUT THEN A CHANCE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES. ALLBLEND HANDLED THE PATTERN WELL SO DID
NOT DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK THROUGH MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STILL A FEW 3000-4000FT CLOUDS AT SOME SITES...BUT MOSTLY JUST SOME
HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO WANE.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...OVER AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WILL CARRY MVFR
FOG ALL SITES. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE OUTLYING SITES DROPPING
INTO IFR CATEGORY...ESPECIALLY BMG WHICH IS HISTORICALLY A FOGGY
SITE...BUT CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY TOOLS INDICATE MVFR IS
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE LIKELY THAN IFR CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR AND
EXPECTED WIND CONDITIONS...AND SREF PROBABILITIES FOR IFR ARE LOW.
HOWEVER...AS BMG HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP...WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO
IFR PERIOD THERE AROUND DAYBREAK.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO
EXCLUDE FROM TAFS. SREF THUNDER PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THIS.
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...NIELD/CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 170500
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
100 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SAGS TO THE OHIO RIVER. MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
DIFFUSE FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AT THIS
TIME...WITH MODEL DATA SUGGESTING THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE BY SUNRISE MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT HAVEN/T BEEN ABLE TO LAST ALL THAT LONG.
SOME OF THE FINER SCALE MODELS DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVEN VERY WEAK FLOW AT 850MB AND NO UPPER AIR
TRIGGER...THINK IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP...IT WILL ISOLATED AND
BRIEF IN NATURE. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT DEWPOINTS...COUPLED WITH LIMITED CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS...AND SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
FRONT...THINK THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG LATER TONIGHT. WILL
ADD THIS TO THE FORECAST.
LOWS TONIGHT STILL LOOK OK...SO NO CHANGES THERE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY IN
PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER REMAINED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION WAS
LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND WAS DRIFTING
TO THE SOUTHEAST.
TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRYING
COLUMN TONIGHT AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT.
305K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME WEAK LIFT REMAINING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TIME HEIGHTS ALSO KEEP
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...BUT ALSO PROVIDE SHOW SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING ALOFT. THUS GIVEN OUR RADAR TRENDS WILL CONTINUE PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY
FORECAST DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL TREND
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE PERSISTENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS EJECTING A FEW
SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
GFS PUSHES THE FIRST AND WEAKER SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST COLUMN
REMAINS DRY FOR MUCH OF MONDAY...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE SOME CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE LINGERING COOL FRONT
BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK CONVERGENCE. THUS WILL KEEP
SOME AFTERNOON POPS IN THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS
FOR TEMPS WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE MAVMOS HIGHS.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY
EVENING. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD SATURATION THROUGH
THE COLUMN. LOWER LEVEL Q VECTORS INDICATE SOME MARGINAL
CONVERGENCE. THUS WILL STICK CLOSE WITH THE MAVMOS POPS AT THIS
TIME AS CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT THERE. AGAIN GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP ALONG WITH MINIMAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL
TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS LOWS.
A SECOND...STRONGER SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST IN THE QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY. ONCE
AGAIN A MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH
DEW POINTS OF 60+. AGAIN LOWER LEVEL Q VECTORS SHOW SOME LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME LIMITED
CAPE. THUS WILL KEEP SOME CHC POPS IN FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF COOL
FRONT. AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...WILL SLOWLY TAPER POPS LOWER. AGAIN WITH CLOUDS AND
RAIN ON TUESDAY WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A DRY COLUMN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES. THUS WILL RETURN TO A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD TEMPERATURES WARM
UNDER GOOD WARM ADVECTION WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. RIDGE
APPEARS TO WEAKEN/BREAK DOWN ENOUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND TO ALLOW A FEW
UPPER DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH AND POSSIBLY INITIATE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION. LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD AT THIS TIME AS THIS IS STILL EARLY IN THE FORECAST.
ALLBLEND GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS WELL SO DID NOT NEED TO
DEVIATE FROM INITIALIZATION TOO MUCH.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK THROUGH MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STILL A FEW 3000-4000FT CLOUDS AT SOME SITES...BUT MOSTLY JUST SOME
HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO WANE.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...OVER AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WILL CARRY MVFR
FOG ALL SITES. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE OUTLYING SITES DROPPING
INTO IFR CATEGORY...ESPECIALLY BMG WHICH IS HISTORICALLY A FOGGY
SITE...BUT CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY TOOLS INDICATE MVFR IS
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE LIKELY THAN IFR CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR AND
EXPECTED WIND CONDITIONS...AND SREF PROBABILITIES FOR IFR ARE LOW.
HOWEVER...AS BMG HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP...WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO
IFR PERIOD THERE AROUND DAYBREAK.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO
EXCLUDE FROM TAFS. SREF THUNDER PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THIS.
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/JAS
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...NIELD/CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 170235
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1035 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SAGS TO THE OHIO RIVER. MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
DIFFUSE FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AT THIS
TIME...WITH MODEL DATA SUGGESTING THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE BY SUNRISE MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT HAVEN/T BEEN ABLE TO LAST ALL THAT LONG.
SOME OF THE FINER SCALE MODELS DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVEN VERY WEAK FLOW AT 850MB AND NO UPPER AIR
TRIGGER...THINK IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP...IT WILL ISOLATED AND
BRIEF IN NATURE. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT DEWPOINTS...COUPLED WITH LIMITED CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS...AND SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
FRONT...THINK THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG LATER TONIGHT. WILL
ADD THIS TO THE FORECAST.
LOWS TONIGHT STILL LOOK OK...SO NO CHANGES THERE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY IN
PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER REMAINED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION WAS
LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND WAS DRIFTING
TO THE SOUTHEAST.
TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRYING
COLUMN TONIGHT AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT.
305K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME WEAK LIFT REMAINING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TIME HEIGHTS ALSO KEEP
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...BUT ALSO PROVIDE SHOW SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING ALOFT. THUS GIVEN OUR RADAR TRENDS WILL CONTINUE PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY
FORECAST DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL TREND
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE PERSISTENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS EJECTING A FEW
SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
GFS PUSHES THE FIRST AND WEAKER SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST COLUMN
REMAINS DRY FOR MUCH OF MONDAY...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE SOME CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE LINGERING COOL FRONT
BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK CONVERGENCE. THUS WILL KEEP
SOME AFTERNOON POPS IN THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS
FOR TEMPS WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE MAVMOS HIGHS.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY
EVENING. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD SATURATION THROUGH
THE COLUMN. LOWER LEVEL Q VECTORS INDICATE SOME MARGINAL
CONVERGENCE. THUS WILL STICK CLOSE WITH THE MAVMOS POPS AT THIS
TIME AS CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT THERE. AGAIN GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP ALONG WITH MINIMAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL
TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS LOWS.
A SECOND...STRONGER SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST IN THE QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY. ONCE
AGAIN A MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH
DEW POINTS OF 60+. AGAIN LOWER LEVEL Q VECTORS SHOW SOME LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME LIMITED
CAPE. THUS WILL KEEP SOME CHC POPS IN FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF COOL
FRONT. AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...WILL SLOWLY TAPER POPS LOWER. AGAIN WITH CLOUDS AND
RAIN ON TUESDAY WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A DRY COLUMN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES. THUS WILL RETURN TO A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD TEMPERATURES WARM
UNDER GOOD WARM ADVECTION WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. RIDGE
APPEARS TO WEAKEN/BREAK DOWN ENOUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND TO ALLOW A FEW
UPPER DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH AND POSSIBLY INITIATE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION. LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD AT THIS TIME AS THIS IS STILL EARLY IN THE FORECAST.
ALLBLEND GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS WELL SO DID NOT NEED TO
DEVIATE FROM INITIALIZATION TOO MUCH.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/03Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1035 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA
IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AS HEATING ENDS. THUS...EXPECT NO FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT THAT CLEARING WILL PROGRESS
THROUGH THE EVENING.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS LATER TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...OVER AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WILL CARRY MVFR FOG ALL SITES. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE OUTLYING
SITES DROPPING INTO IFR CATEGORY...ESPECIALLY BMG WHICH IS
HISTORICALLY A FOGGY SITE...BUT CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY TOOLS
INDICATE MVFR IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE LIKELY THAN IFR CONSIDERING THE
TIME OF YEAR AND EXPECTED WIND CONDITIONS...AND SREF PROBABILITIES
FOR IFR ARE LOW...BUT WILL MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING AND
REEVALUATE AT 06Z IF NEEDED.
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/JAS
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 170136
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
934 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SAGS TO THE OHIO RIVER. MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
DIFFUSE FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AT THIS
TIME...WITH MODEL DATA SUGGESTING THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE BY SUNRISE MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT HAVEN/T BEEN ABLE TO LAST ALL THAT LONG.
SOME OF THE FINER SCALE MODELS DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVEN VERY WEAK FLOW AT 850MB AND NO UPPER AIR
TRIGGER...THINK IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP...IT WILL ISOLATED AND
BRIEF IN NATURE. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT DEWPOINTS...COUPLED WITH LIMITED CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS...AND SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
FRONT...THINK THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG LATER TONIGHT. WILL
ADD THIS TO THE FORECAST.
LOWS TONIGHT STILL LOOK OK...SO NO CHANGES THERE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY IN
PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER REMAINED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION WAS
LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND WAS DRIFTING
TO THE SOUTHEAST.
TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRYING
COLUMN TONIGHT AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT.
305K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME WEAK LIFT REMAINING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TIME HEIGHTS ALSO KEEP
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...BUT ALSO PROVIDE SHOW SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING ALOFT. THUS GIVEN OUR RADAR TRENDS WILL CONTINUE PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY
FORECAST DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL TREND
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE PERSISTENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS EJECTING A FEW
SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
GFS PUSHES THE FIRST AND WEAKER SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST COLUMN
REMAINS DRY FOR MUCH OF MONDAY...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE SOME CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE LINGERING COOL FRONT
BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK CONVERGENCE. THUS WILL KEEP
SOME AFTERNOON POPS IN THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS
FOR TEMPS WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE MAVMOS HIGHS.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY
EVENING. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD SATURATION THROUGH
THE COLUMN. LOWER LEVEL Q VECTORS INDICATE SOME MARGINAL
CONVERGENCE. THUS WILL STICK CLOSE WITH THE MAVMOS POPS AT THIS
TIME AS CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT THERE. AGAIN GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP ALONG WITH MINIMAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL
TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS LOWS.
A SECOND...STRONGER SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST IN THE QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY. ONCE
AGAIN A MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH
DEW POINTS OF 60+. AGAIN LOWER LEVEL Q VECTORS SHOW SOME LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME LIMITED
CAPE. THUS WILL KEEP SOME CHC POPS IN FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF COOL
FRONT. AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...WILL SLOWLY TAPER POPS LOWER. AGAIN WITH CLOUDS AND
RAIN ON TUESDAY WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A DRY COLUMN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES. THUS WILL RETURN TO A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD TEMPERATURES WARM
UNDER GOOD WARM ADVECTION WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. RIDGE
APPEARS TO WEAKEN/BREAK DOWN ENOUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND TO ALLOW A FEW
UPPER DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH AND POSSIBLY INITIATE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION. LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD AT THIS TIME AS THIS IS STILL EARLY IN THE FORECAST.
ALLBLEND GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS WELL SO DID NOT NEED TO
DEVIATE FROM INITIALIZATION TOO MUCH.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA
IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AS HEATING ENDS. THUS...EXPECT NO FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT THAT CLEARING WILL PROGRESS
THROUGH THE EVENING.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS LATER TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...OVER AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WILL CARRY MVFR FOG ALL SITES. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE OUTLYING
SITES DROPPING INTO IFR CATEGORY...ESPECIALLY BMG WHICH IS
HISTORICALLY A FOGGY SITE...BUT CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY TOOLS
INDICATE MVFR IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE LIKELY THAN IFR CONSIDERING THE
TIME OF YEAR AND EXPECTED WIND CONDITIONS...AND SREF PROBABILITIES
FOR IFR ARE LOW...BUT WILL MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING AND
REEVALUATE AT 06Z IF NEEDED.
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/JAS
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 162321
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
721 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SAGS TO THE OHIO RIVER. MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY IN
PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER REMAINED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION WAS
LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND WAS DRIFTING
TO THE SOUTHEAST.
TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRYING
COLUMN TONIGHT AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT.
305K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME WEAK LIFT REMAINING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TIME HEIGHTS ALSO KEEP
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...BUT ALSO PROVIDE SHOW SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING ALOFT. THUS GIVEN OUR RADAR TRENDS WILL CONTINUE PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY
FORECAST DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL TREND
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE PERSISTENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS EJECTING A FEW
SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
GFS PUSHES THE FIRST AND WEAKER SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST COLUMN
REMAINS DRY FOR MUCH OF MONDAY...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE SOME CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE LINGERING COOL FRONT
BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK CONVERGENCE. THUS WILL KEEP
SOME AFTERNOON POPS IN THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS
FOR TEMPS WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE MAVMOS HIGHS.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY
EVENING. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD SATURATION THROUGH
THE COLUMN. LOWER LEVEL Q VECTORS INDICATE SOME MARGINAL
CONVERGENCE. THUS WILL STICK CLOSE WITH THE MAVMOS POPS AT THIS
TIME AS CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT THERE. AGAIN GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP ALONG WITH MINIMAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL
TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS LOWS.
A SECOND...STRONGER SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST IN THE QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY. ONCE
AGAIN A MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH
DEW POINTS OF 60+. AGAIN LOWER LEVEL Q VECTORS SHOW SOME LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME LIMITED
CAPE. THUS WILL KEEP SOME CHC POPS IN FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF COOL
FRONT. AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...WILL SLOWLY TAPER POPS LOWER. AGAIN WITH CLOUDS AND
RAIN ON TUESDAY WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A DRY COLUMN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES. THUS WILL RETURN TO A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD TEMPERATURES WARM
UNDER GOOD WARM ADVECTION WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. RIDGE
APPEARS TO WEAKEN/BREAK DOWN ENOUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND TO ALLOW A FEW
UPPER DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH AND POSSIBLY INITIATE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION. LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD AT THIS TIME AS THIS IS STILL EARLY IN THE FORECAST.
ALLBLEND GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS WELL SO DID NOT NEED TO
DEVIATE FROM INITIALIZATION TOO MUCH.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA
IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AS HEATING ENDS. THUS...EXPECT NO FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT THAT CLEARING WILL PROGRESS
THROUGH THE EVENING.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS LATER TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...OVER AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WILL CARRY MVFR FOG ALL SITES. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE OUTLYING
SITES DROPPING INTO IFR CATEGORY...ESPECIALLY BMG WHICH IS
HISTORICALLY A FOGGY SITE...BUT CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY TOOLS
INDICATE MVFR IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE LIKELY THAN IFR CONSIDERING THE
TIME OF YEAR AND EXPECTED WIND CONDITIONS...AND SREF PROBABILITIES
FOR IFR ARE LOW...BUT WILL MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING AND
REEVALUATE AT 06Z IF NEEDED.
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 162028
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SAGS TO THE OHIO RIVER. MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY IN
PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER REMAINED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION WAS
LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND WAS DRIFTING
TO THE SOUTHEAST.
TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRYING
COLUMN TONIGHT AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT.
305K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME WEAK LIFT REMAINING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TIME HEIGHTS ALSO KEEP
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...BUT ALSO PROVIDE SHOW SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING ALOFT. THUS GIVEN OUR RADAR TRENDS WILL CONTINUE PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY
FORECAST DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL TREND
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE PERSISTENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS EJECTING A FEW
SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
GFS PUSHES THE FIRST AND WEAKER SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST COLUMN
REMAINS DRY FOR MUCH OF MONDAY...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE SOME CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE LINGERING COOL FRONT
BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK CONVERGENCE. THUS WILL KEEP
SOME AFTERNOON POPS IN THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS
FOR TEMPS WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE MAVMOS HIGHS.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY
EVENING. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD SATURATION THROUGH
THE COLUMN. LOWER LEVEL Q VECTORS INDICATE SOME MARGINAL
CONVERGENCE. THUS WILL STICK CLOSE WITH THE MAVMOS POPS AT THIS
TIME AS CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT THERE. AGAIN GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP ALONG WITH MINIMAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL
TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS LOWS.
A SECOND...STRONGER SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST IN THE QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY. ONCE
AGAIN A MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH
DEW POINTS OF 60+. AGAIN LOWER LEVEL Q VECTORS SHOW SOME LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME LIMITED
CAPE. THUS WILL KEEP SOME CHC POPS IN FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF COOL
FRONT. AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...WILL SLOWLY TAPER POPS LOWER. AGAIN WITH CLOUDS AND
RAIN ON TUESDAY WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A DRY COLUMN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES. THUS WILL RETURN TO A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD TEMPERATURES WARM
UNDER GOOD WARM ADVECTION WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. RIDGE
APPEARS TO WEAKEN/BREAK DOWN ENOUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND TO ALLOW A FEW
UPPER DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH AND POSSIBLY INITIATE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION. LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD AT THIS TIME AS THIS IS STILL EARLY IN THE FORECAST.
ALLBLEND GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS WELL SO DID NOT NEED TO
DEVIATE FROM INITIALIZATION TOO MUCH.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 16/21Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
BULK OF THE SHOWERS ARE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES...EXCEPT
FOR BMG WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD
HAVE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO RUMBLE THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR IN THIS TAF WITH A TEMPO
GROUP. AS FOR THE REST OF THE SITES...THEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
WITH ONLY A VCSH. SOME OF THE TERMINALS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING BETWEEN
VFR AND MFVR IN THE LAST HOUR BUT THE TREND IS GENERALLY FOR VFR.
LATER TONIGHT NAM SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH
LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BUT GFS IS MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC ON
CEILINGS. WILL GO MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR VISIBILITIES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER KEEP THE CEILINGS AT VFR. NOT ENTIRELY SURE
WHERE THE NAM IS BRINGING THESE LOWER CEILING FROM. IMPROVED
CONDITIONS TO VFR BY 14-15Z MONDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 161826
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
226 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...LONG TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SAGS TO THE OHIO RIVER. MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY IN
PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER REMAINED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION WAS
LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND WAS DRIFTING
TO THE SOUTHEAST.
TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRYING
COLUMN TONIGHT AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT.
305K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME WEAK LIFT REMAINING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TIME HEIGHTS ALSO KEEP
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...BUT ALSO PROVIDE SHOW SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING ALOFT. THUS GIVEN OUR RADAR TRENDS WILL CONTINUE PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY
FORECAST DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL TREND
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE PERSISTENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS EJECTING A FEW
SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
GFS PUSHES THE FIRST AND WEAKER SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST COLUMN
REMAINS DRY FOR MUCH OF MONDAY...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE SOME CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE LINGERING COOL FRONT
BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK CONVERGENCE. THUS WILL KEEP
SOME AFTERNOON POPS IN THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS
FOR TEMPS WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE MAVMOS HIGHS.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY
EVENING. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD SATURATION THROUGH
THE COLUMN. LOWER LEVEL Q VECTORS INDICATE SOME MARGINAL
CONVERGENCE. THUS WILL STICK CLOSE WITH THE MAVMOS POPS AT THIS
TIME AS CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT THERE. AGAIN GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP ALONG WITH MINIMAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL
TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS LOWS.
A SECOND...STRONGER SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST IN THE QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY. ONCE
AGAIN A MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH
DEW POINTS OF 60+. AGAIN LOWER LEVEL Q VECTORS SHOW SOME LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME LIMITED
CAPE. THUS WILL KEEP SOME CHC POPS IN FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF COOL
FRONT. AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...WILL SLOWLY TAPER POPS LOWER. AGAIN WITH CLOUDS AND
RAIN ON TUESDAY WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A DRY COLUMN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES. THUS WILL RETURN TO A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD TEMPERATURES WARM
UNDER GOOD WARM ADVECTION WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. RIDGE
APPEARS TO WEAKEN/BREAK DOWN ENOUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND TO ALLOW A FEW
UPPER DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH AND POSSIBLY INITIATE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION. LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD AT THIS TIME AS THIS IS STILL EARLY IN THE FORECAST.
ALLBLEND GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS WELL SO DID NOT NEED TO
DEVIATE FROM INITIALIZATION TOO MUCH.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 161800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
BULK OF THE SHOWERS ARE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES...EXCEPT
FOR BMG WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD
HAVE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO RUMBLE THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR IN THIS TAF WITH A TEMPO
GROUP. AS FOR THE REST OF THE SITES...THEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
WITH ONLY A VCSH. SOME OF THE TERMINALS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING BETWEEN
VFR AND MFVR IN THE LAST HOUR BUT THE TREND IS GENERALLY FOR VFR.
LATER TONIGHT NAM SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH
LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BUT GFS IS MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC ON
CEILINGS. WILL GO MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR VISIBILITIES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER KEEP THE CEILINGS AT VFR. NOT ENTIRELY SURE
WHERE THE NAM IS BRINGING THESE LOWER CEILING FROM. IMPROVED
CONDITIONS TO VFR BY 14-15Z MONDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 161637
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1237 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE NEXT FEW DAYS...FOLLOWED BY
QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TODAY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS
MAY TEMPORARILY END TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY AND DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER
THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AFFECT US LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
ISSUED AT 951 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. RADAR TRENDS SHOW AN
AREA OF SHRA WITH ISOLATED TSRA OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...PUSHING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. DRIER AIR WAS WORKING
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...AS RADAR ECHOS
WERE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRYING THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COOL FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD. THUS HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT
FOR TWO THINGS IN THE GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST...RAISING POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE EXPECTED
PROPAGATION OF THE SHRA OVER ILLINOIS TO PLACES LIKE
BLOOMINGTON...SEYMOUR AND COLUMBUS. SECONDLY...LOWERING THE POPS
ACROSS THE NW AND SLOWLY PUSHING THAT TREND SOUTHEAST AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.
ONGOING FORECAST TEMPS LOOK OK AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
GIVEN THE SLOWER TREND OF DRYING US OUT...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FAR SOUTH FOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY. WILL MENTION
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTH. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BY THE RULE MONDAY
EVENING THEN DIMINISH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS DRIER
AIR SPREADS INTO OUR REGION FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT.
THE GFS HAS BEEN HAVING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS AND AS A RESULT
KEEP PRECIPITATION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MUCH OF OUR REGION WELL
INTO TUESDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM WHICH DRIES US OUT MORE
QUICKLY.
FINALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE RULE
TUESDAY NIGHT. WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST
PERIODS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MID WEEK TO BRING
DRY WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA. ON WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL /MID 70S TO AROUND 80/ WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND
WEAK COLD ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WARM THEREAFTER UNDER GOOD WARM
ADVECTION WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
IN THE MODELS THAT THE RIDGE COULD BREAK DOWN A LITTLE AT THE END OF
THE WEEK ALLOWING UPPER SHORTWAVES TO RIDE INTO THE AREA. WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE LOOKING FAIRLY STRONG NOT SURE THIS SCENARIO WILL PLAY
OUT...BUT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH SIGNS TO LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS IS LOWER THAN THE LOW
CHANCE POPS GIVEN BY ALLBLEND BUT IS A BETTER COMPROMISE WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 161800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
BULK OF THE SHOWERS ARE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES...EXCEPT
FOR BMG WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD
HAVE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO RUMBLE THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR IN THIS TAF WITH A TEMPO
GROUP. AS FOR THE REST OF THE SITES...THEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
WITH ONLY A VCSH. SOME OF THE TERMINALS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING BETWEEN
VFR AND MFVR IN THE LAST HOUR BUT THE TREND IS GENERALLY FOR VFR.
LATER TONIGHT NAM SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH
LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BUT GFS IS MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC ON
CEILINGS. WILL GO MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR VISIBILITIES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER KEEP THE CEILINGS AT VFR. NOT ENTIRELY SURE
WHERE THE NAM IS BRINGING THESE LOWER CEILING FROM. IMPROVED
CONDITIONS TO VFR BY 14-15Z MONDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 161432
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1032 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE NEXT FEW DAYS...FOLLOWED BY
QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TODAY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS
MAY TEMPORARILY END TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY AND DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER
THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AFFECT US LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
ISSUED AT 951 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. RADAR TRENDS SHOW AN
AREA OF SHRA WITH ISOLATED TSRA OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...PUSHING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. DRIER AIR WAS WORKING
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...AS RADAR ECHOS
WERE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRYING THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COOL FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD. THUS HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT
FOR TWO THINGS IN THE GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST...RAISING POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE EXPECTED
PROPAGATION OF THE SHRA OVER ILLINOIS TO PLACES LIKE
BLOOMINGTON...SEYMOUR AND COLUMBUS. SECONDLY...LOWERING THE POPS
ACROSS THE NW AND SLOWLY PUSHING THAT TREND SOUTHEAST AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.
ONGOING FORECAST TEMPS LOOK OK AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
GIVEN THE SLOWER TREND OF DRYING US OUT...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FAR SOUTH FOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY. WILL MENTION
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTH. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BY THE RULE MONDAY
EVENING THEN DIMINISH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS DRIER
AIR SPREADS INTO OUR REGION FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT.
THE GFS HAS BEEN HAVING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS AND AS A RESULT
KEEP PRECIPITATION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MUCH OF OUR REGION WELL
INTO TUESDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM WHICH DRIES US OUT MORE
QUICKLY.
FINALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE RULE
TUESDAY NIGHT. WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST
PERIODS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MID WEEK TO BRING
DRY WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA. ON WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL /MID 70S TO AROUND 80/ WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND
WEAK COLD ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WARM THEREAFTER UNDER GOOD WARM
ADVECTION WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
IN THE MODELS THAT THE RIDGE COULD BREAK DOWN A LITTLE AT THE END OF
THE WEEK ALLOWING UPPER SHORTWAVES TO RIDE INTO THE AREA. WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE LOOKING FAIRLY STRONG NOT SURE THIS SCENARIO WILL PLAY
OUT...BUT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH SIGNS TO LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS IS LOWER THAN THE LOW
CHANCE POPS GIVEN BY ALLBLEND BUT IS A BETTER COMPROMISE WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 161200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
1430Z UPDATE...REMOVED VCTS FROM KIND TAF BUT LEFT IN KHUF AND
KBMG FOR NOW. CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST IS MINIMAL AT BEST. VFR
IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AT 1030Z...BUT THE
HEAVIEST ECHOES ARE EAST OF THE SITES AND THOSE THAT MAY STILL
OVERSPREAD THE SITES ARE ALL VFR. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
AT THE SITES LATER THIS MORNING/THIS AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. MAY INCLUDE A VCTS AT ALL BUT
KLAF FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. FOR LATER TONIGHT NAM SHOWS DEVELOPMENT
OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BUT
GFS IS MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC ON CEILINGS. WILL GO MVFR TO PERHAPS
IFR VISIBILITIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 161414
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1014 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE NEXT FEW DAYS...FOLLOWED BY
QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TODAY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS
MAY TEMPORARILY END TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY AND DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER
THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AFFECT US LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
ISSUED AT 951 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. RADAR TRENDS SHOW AN
AREA OF SHRA WITH ISOLATED TSRA OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...PUSHING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. DRIER AIR WAS WORKING
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...AS RADAR ECHOS
WERE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRYING THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COOL FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD. THUS HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT
FOR TWO THINGS IN THE GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST...RAISING POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE EXPECTED
PROPAGATION OF THE SHRA OVER ILLINOIS TO PLACES LIKE
BLOOMINGTON...SEYMOUR AND COLUMBUS. SECONDLY...LOWERING THE POPS
ACROSS THE NW AND SLOWLY PUSHING THAT TREND SOUTHEAST AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.
ONGOING FORECAST TEMPS LOOK OK AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
GIVEN THE SLOWER TREND OF DRYING US OUT...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FAR SOUTH FOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY. WILL MENTION
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTH. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BY THE RULE MONDAY
EVENING THEN DIMINISH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS DRIER
AIR SPREADS INTO OUR REGION FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT.
THE GFS HAS BEEN HAVING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS AND AS A RESULT
KEEP PRECIPITATION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MUCH OF OUR REGION WELL
INTO TUESDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM WHICH DRIES US OUT MORE
QUICKLY.
FINALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE RULE
TUESDAY NIGHT. WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST
PERIODS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MID WEEK TO BRING
DRY WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA. ON WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL /MID 70S TO AROUND 80/ WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND
WEAK COLD ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WARM THEREAFTER UNDER GOOD WARM
ADVECTION WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
IN THE MODELS THAT THE RIDGE COULD BREAK DOWN A LITTLE AT THE END OF
THE WEEK ALLOWING UPPER SHORTWAVES TO RIDE INTO THE AREA. WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE LOOKING FAIRLY STRONG NOT SURE THIS SCENARIO WILL PLAY
OUT...BUT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH SIGNS TO LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS IS LOWER THAN THE LOW
CHANCE POPS GIVEN BY ALLBLEND BUT IS A BETTER COMPROMISE WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 161200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 631 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AT 1030Z...BUT THE
HEAVIEST ECHOES ARE EAST OF THE SITES AND THOSE THAT MAY STILL
OVERSPREAD THE SITES ARE ALL VFR. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
AT THE SITES LATER THIS MORNING/THIS AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. MAY INCLUDE A VCTS AT ALL BUT
KLAF FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. FOR LATER TONIGHT NAM SHOWS DEVELOPMENT
OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BUT
GFS IS MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC ON CEILINGS. WILL GO MVFR TO PERHAPS
IFR VISIBILITIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 161044
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
644 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE NEXT FEW DAYS...FOLLOWED BY
QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TODAY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS
MAY TEMPORARILY END TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY AND DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER
THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AFFECT US LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS WEAKENED AS IT HAS PUSHED INTO OUR REGION
THIS MORNING. EVEN THOUGH IT HAS WEAKENED SO FAR...MODELS
PARTICULARLY THE RAPID REFRESH INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST TO LATE MORNING. THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD
850 MB JET FEEDING MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. SO FOR NOW...WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE RAPID REFRESH SOLUTION OF KEEPING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY
DRYING EVERYTHING OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
850 MB JET SHIFTS EAST AS WELL AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER IN DRYING US OUT...SO WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS A LITTLE LONGER AND A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.
THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING LATER TODAY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTH. GIVEN THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME SUNSHINE LATER TODAY WILL GO CLOSER TO WARMER END OF
MOS ENSEMBLES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
GIVEN THE SLOWER TREND OF DRYING US OUT...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FAR SOUTH FOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY. WILL MENTION
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTH. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BY THE RULE MONDAY
EVENING THEN DIMINISH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS DRIER
AIR SPREADS INTO OUR REGION FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT.
THE GFS HAS BEEN HAVING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS AND AS A RESULT
KEEP PRECIPITATION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MUCH OF OUR REGION WELL
INTO TUESDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM WHICH DRIES US OUT MORE
QUICKLY.
FINALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE RULE
TUESDAY NIGHT. WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST
PERIODS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MID WEEK TO BRING
DRY WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA. ON WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL /MID 70S TO AROUND 80/ WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND
WEAK COLD ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WARM THEREAFTER UNDER GOOD WARM
ADVECTION WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
IN THE MODELS THAT THE RIDGE COULD BREAK DOWN A LITTLE AT THE END OF
THE WEEK ALLOWING UPPER SHORTWAVES TO RIDE INTO THE AREA. WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE LOOKING FAIRLY STRONG NOT SURE THIS SCENARIO WILL PLAY
OUT...BUT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH SIGNS TO LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS IS LOWER THAN THE LOW
CHANCE POPS GIVEN BY ALLBLEND BUT IS A BETTER COMPROMISE WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 161200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 631 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AT 1030Z...BUT THE
HEAVIEST ECHOES ARE EAST OF THE SITES AND THOSE THAT MAY STILL
OVERSPREAD THE SITES ARE ALL VFR. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
AT THE SITES LATER THIS MORNING/THIS AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. MAY INCLUDE A VCTS AT ALL BUT
KLAF FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. FOR LATER TONIGHT NAM SHOWS DEVELOPMENT
OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BUT
GFS IS MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC ON CEILINGS. WILL GO MVFR TO PERHAPS
IFR VISIBILITIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 160829
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE NEXT FEW DAYS...FOLLOWED BY
QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TODAY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS
MAY TEMPORARILY END TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY AND DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER
THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AFFECT US LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS WEAKENED AS IT HAS PUSHED INTO OUR REGION
THIS MORNING. EVEN THOUGH IT HAS WEAKENED SO FAR...MODELS
PARTICULARLY THE RAPID REFRESH INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST TO LATE MORNING. THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD
850 MB JET FEEDING MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. SO FOR NOW...WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE RAPID REFRESH SOLUTION OF KEEPING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY
DRYING EVERYTHING OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
850 MB JET SHIFTS EAST AS WELL AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER IN DRYING US OUT...SO WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS A LITTLE LONGER AND A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.
THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING LATER TODAY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTH. GIVEN THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME SUNSHINE LATER TODAY WILL GO CLOSER TO WARMER END OF
MOS ENSEMBLES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
GIVEN THE SLOWER TREND OF DRYING US OUT...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FAR SOUTH FOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY. WILL MENTION
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTH. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BY THE RULE MONDAY
EVENING THEN DIMINISH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS DRIER
AIR SPREADS INTO OUR REGION FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT.
THE GFS HAS BEEN HAVING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS AND AS A RESULT
KEEP PRECIPITATION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MUCH OF OUR REGION WELL
INTO TUESDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM WHICH DRIES US OUT MORE
QUICKLY.
FINALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE RULE
TUESDAY NIGHT. WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST
PERIODS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MID WEEK TO BRING
DRY WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA. ON WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL /MID 70S TO AROUND 80/ WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND
WEAK COLD ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WARM THEREAFTER UNDER GOOD WARM
ADVECTION WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
IN THE MODELS THAT THE RIDGE COULD BREAK DOWN A LITTLE AT THE END OF
THE WEEK ALLOWING UPPER SHORTWAVES TO RIDE INTO THE AREA. WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE LOOKING FAIRLY STRONG NOT SURE THIS SCENARIO WILL PLAY
OUT...BUT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH SIGNS TO LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS IS LOWER THAN THE LOW
CHANCE POPS GIVEN BY ALLBLEND BUT IS A BETTER COMPROMISE WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 16/09Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
UPDATED TO TWEAK CURRENT CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF ANY
POSSIBLE SHOWERS.
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA. K INDICES HOWEVER SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SOME THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN SITES. WILL CARRY VCTS AT
KLAF/KHUF AND VCSH ELSEWHERE. WILL ALSO TEMPO IN SOME THUNDER AT
KHUF FOR THE FIRST HOUR.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME WIND GUSTS OF 20 KTS OR SO OUT OF THE
WEST WITHIN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AT KHUF AND PERHAPS KLAF.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...NIELD/CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 160752
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE NEXT FEW DAYS...FOLLOWED BY
QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TODAY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS
MAY TEMPORARILY END TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY AND DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER
THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AFFECT US LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS WEAKENED AS IT HAS PUSHED INTO OUR REGION
THIS MORNING. EVEN THOUGH IT HAS WEAKENED SO FAR...MODELS
PARTICULARLY THE RAPID REFRESH INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST TO LATE MORNING. THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD
850 MB JET FEEDING MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. SO FOR NOW...WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE RAPID REFRESH SOLUTION OF KEEPING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY
DRYING EVERYTHING OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
850 MB JET SHIFTS EAST AS WELL AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER IN DRYING US OUT...SO WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS A LITTLE LONGER AND A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.
THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING LATER TODAY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTH. GIVEN THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME SUNSHINE LATER TODAY WILL GO CLOSER TO WARMER END OF
MOS ENSEMBLES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
GIVEN THE SLOWER TREND OF DRYING US OUT...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FAR SOUTH FOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY. WILL MENTION
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTH. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BY THE RULE MONDAY
EVENING THEN DIMINISH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS DRIER
AIR SPREADS INTO OUR REGION FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT.
THE GFS HAS BEEN HAVING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS AND AS A RESULT
KEEP PRECIPITATION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MUCH OF OUR REGION WELL
INTO TUESDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM WHICH DRIES US OUT MORE
QUICKLY.
FINALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE RULE
TUESDAY NIGHT. WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST
PERIODS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MID WEEK TO BRING
DRY WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA. ON WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL /MID 70S TO AROUND 80/ WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND
WEAK COLD ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WARM THEREAFTER UNDER GOOD WARM
ADVECTION WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
IN THE MODELS THAT THE RIDGE COULD BREAK DOWN A LITTLE AT THE END OF
THE WEEK ALLOWING UPPER SHORTWAVES TO RIDE INTO THE AREA. WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE LOOKING FAIRLY STRONG NOT SURE THIS SCENARIO WILL PLAY
OUT...BUT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH SIGNS TO LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS IS LOWER THAN THE LOW
CHANCE POPS GIVEN BY ALLBLEND BUT IS A BETTER COMPROMISE WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 16/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1254 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
VFR THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF ANY
POSSIBLE SHOWERS.
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA. K INDICES HOWEVER SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SOME THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN SITES. WILL CARRY VCTS AT
KLAF/KHUF AND VCSH ELSEWHERE. WILL ALSO TEMPO IN SOME THUNDER AT
KHUF FOR THE FIRST HOUR.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME WIND GUSTS OF 20 KTS OR SO OUT OF THE
WEST WITHIN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AT KHUF AND PERHAPS KLAF.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...NIELD/CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 160454
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1254 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND DRY WEATHER
SHOULD RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 935 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH
WESTERN ILLINOIS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT
IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER. COMPLEX MAY TEND TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT MAY INTENSIFY AGAIN DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. ORIENTATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET FAVORS A POTENTIAL TRACK OF THE COMPLEX OVER ABOUT THE
ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL DELAY THE HIGHER
POPS TIL AFTER 160700Z ON THE UPDATE...WHEN THE STRONGER LIFT BEGINS
MOVING INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA AS WELL LATE TONIGHT...SO HEAVY RAINFALL IS A THREAT.
OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS OK AT THIS POINT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUED TO
PERSIST AMID A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PROVIDING WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW SHORT WAVES OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...STREAMING EAST IN THE FLATTENING FLOW
ALOFT.
RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHRA AND TSRA OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS STREAMING
EASTWARD...BUT HAVING DIFFICULTY PUSHING EAST OF THE WABASH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY SATURATED COLUMN. 310K GFS
ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LIFT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS THAT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA TOWARD 00Z...HOWEVER THE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR AS
SHARP. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW BEST LIFT AND SATURATION TOWARD 12Z
SUNDAY...AS DO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. FURTHERMORE LOWER LEVEL Q
VECTORS INDICATE AN AXIS OF GOOD CONVERGENCE WORKING ACROSS THE
AREA FROM 06Z TO 12Z. THUS WILL RAISE POPS...FOCUSING HIGHEST POPS
DURING THE 06Z-12Z WINDOW...AND RAMPING HIGHER DURING THE EVENING.
GIVEN THE MINIMAL CHANGE IN AIR MASS AND THE EXPECTED RAIN WILL
STICK CLOSE TO THE RATHER WARM GUIDANCE LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN SOME ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO EFFECT THE AREA THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY.
GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT BEST FORCING EXITS THE AREA BY 18Z AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO DRY OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
700MB SHOW GOOD SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL KEEP SOME CHC POPS IN THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE FORCING DEPARTS. WITH 850MB
TEMPS HOLDING AROUND 13C...THE WARMER MAVMOS HIGHS ARE BETTER THAN
THE COOLER METMOS. WILL TREND CLOSER TO THE MAV.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE DRY ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. GOOD SUBSIDENCE ALSO REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DRY WITH LOWS CLOSE TO THE
COOLER MAVMOS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SATURATED FROM TOP DOWN ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS SMALL CAPE VALUES...LESS THAN 1000 J/KG REMAIN
PRESENT. FURTHERMORE GFS DEPICTS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PUSHING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON MONDAY TO COVER FOR THIS
EVENT. AGAIN WILL STICK CLOSE TO EXPECTED PERSISTENCE ON HIGH
TEMPS AS 850MB TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE.
GFS AND NAM BOTH DEPICT A STRONGER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THIS BETTER...MORE ORGANIZED FORCING EXPECTED WILL
RAISE POPS BOTH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WILL ALSO TREND LOWS
WARMER AND HIGHS COOLER WITH EXPECTED RAIN AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COOLER AIR MASS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
MODELS AGREE ON EASTERN AND WESTERN TROUGHING WITH A RIDGE ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TO START THE EXTENDED. THEN...NORTHWESTERN UPPER LOW AND
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING ITS BASE ACT TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP IT DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. THEN...WPC BRINGS A WARM FRONT TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL
INDIANA...AND REGIONAL INITIALIZATION BROUGHT IN SOME POPS.
HOWEVER...WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WILL
LEAVE IT DRY FOR NOW PER ADJACENT OFFICES AND COORDINATION.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL BY LATE WEEK PER INITIALIZATION.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 16/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1254 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
VFR THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF ANY
POSSIBLE SHOWERS.
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA. K INDICES HOWEVER SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SOME THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN SITES. WILL CARRY VCTS AT
KLAF/KHUF AND VCSH ELSEWHERE. WILL ALSO TEMPO IN SOME THUNDER AT
KHUF FOR THE FIRST HOUR.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME WIND GUSTS OF 20 KTS OR SO OUT OF THE
WEST WITHIN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AT KHUF AND PERHAPS KLAF.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...JAS/PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...NIELD/CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 160228
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1028 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND DRY WEATHER
SHOULD RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 935 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH
WESTERN ILLINOIS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT
IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER. COMPLEX MAY TEND TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT MAY INTENSIFY AGAIN DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. ORIENTATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET FAVORS A POTENTIAL TRACK OF THE COMPLEX OVER ABOUT THE
ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL DELAY THE HIGHER
POPS TIL AFTER 160700Z ON THE UPDATE...WHEN THE STRONGER LIFT BEGINS
MOVING INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA AS WELL LATE TONIGHT...SO HEAVY RAINFALL IS A THREAT.
OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS OK AT THIS POINT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUED TO
PERSIST AMID A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PROVIDING WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW SHORT WAVES OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...STREAMING EAST IN THE FLATTENING FLOW
ALOFT.
RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHRA AND TSRA OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS STREAMING
EASTWARD...BUT HAVING DIFFICULTY PUSHING EAST OF THE WABASH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY SATURATED COLUMN. 310K GFS
ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LIFT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS THAT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA TOWARD 00Z...HOWEVER THE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR AS
SHARP. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW BEST LIFT AND SATURATION TOWARD 12Z
SUNDAY...AS DO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. FURTHERMORE LOWER LEVEL Q
VECTORS INDICATE AN AXIS OF GOOD CONVERGENCE WORKING ACROSS THE
AREA FROM 06Z TO 12Z. THUS WILL RAISE POPS...FOCUSING HIGHEST POPS
DURING THE 06Z-12Z WINDOW...AND RAMPING HIGHER DURING THE EVENING.
GIVEN THE MINIMAL CHANGE IN AIR MASS AND THE EXPECTED RAIN WILL
STICK CLOSE TO THE RATHER WARM GUIDANCE LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN SOME ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO EFFECT THE AREA THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY.
GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT BEST FORCING EXITS THE AREA BY 18Z AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO DRY OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
700MB SHOW GOOD SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL KEEP SOME CHC POPS IN THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE FORCING DEPARTS. WITH 850MB
TEMPS HOLDING AROUND 13C...THE WARMER MAVMOS HIGHS ARE BETTER THAN
THE COOLER METMOS. WILL TREND CLOSER TO THE MAV.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE DRY ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. GOOD SUBSIDENCE ALSO REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DRY WITH LOWS CLOSE TO THE
COOLER MAVMOS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SATURATED FROM TOP DOWN ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS SMALL CAPE VALUES...LESS THAN 1000 J/KG REMAIN
PRESENT. FURTHERMORE GFS DEPICTS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PUSHING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON MONDAY TO COVER FOR THIS
EVENT. AGAIN WILL STICK CLOSE TO EXPECTED PERSISTENCE ON HIGH
TEMPS AS 850MB TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE.
GFS AND NAM BOTH DEPICT A STRONGER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THIS BETTER...MORE ORGANIZED FORCING EXPECTED WILL
RAISE POPS BOTH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WILL ALSO TREND LOWS
WARMER AND HIGHS COOLER WITH EXPECTED RAIN AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COOLER AIR MASS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
MODELS AGREE ON EASTERN AND WESTERN TROUGHING WITH A RIDGE ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TO START THE EXTENDED. THEN...NORTHWESTERN UPPER LOW AND
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING ITS BASE ACT TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP IT DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. THEN...WPC BRINGS A WARM FRONT TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL
INDIANA...AND REGIONAL INITIALIZATION BROUGHT IN SOME POPS.
HOWEVER...WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WILL
LEAVE IT DRY FOR NOW PER ADJACENT OFFICES AND COORDINATION.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL BY LATE WEEK PER INITIALIZATION.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 16/03Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
NO CHANGES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
VFR THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF ANY
POSSIBLE SHOWERS.
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER MISSOURI IS
UNLIKELY TO RETAIN A SIGNIFICANT THUNDER PRODUCING CAPACITY AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD INTO INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW FOR EVEN A
VICINITY MENTION. WILL CARRY VCSH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...JAS/PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 160138
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
935 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND DRY WEATHER
SHOULD RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 935 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH
WESTERN ILLINOIS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT
IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER. COMPLEX MAY TEND TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT MAY INTENSIFY AGAIN DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. ORIENTATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET FAVORS A POTENTIAL TRACK OF THE COMPLEX OVER ABOUT THE
ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL DELAY THE HIGHER
POPS TIL AFTER 160700Z ON THE UPDATE...WHEN THE STRONGER LIFT BEGINS
MOVING INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA AS WELL LATE TONIGHT...SO HEAVY RAINFALL IS A THREAT.
OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS OK AT THIS POINT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUED TO
PERSIST AMID A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PROVIDING WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW SHORT WAVES OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...STREAMING EAST IN THE FLATTENING FLOW
ALOFT.
RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHRA AND TSRA OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS STREAMING
EASTWARD...BUT HAVING DIFFICULTY PUSHING EAST OF THE WABASH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY SATURATED COLUMN. 310K GFS
ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LIFT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS THAT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA TOWARD 00Z...HOWEVER THE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR AS
SHARP. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW BEST LIFT AND SATURATION TOWARD 12Z
SUNDAY...AS DO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. FURTHERMORE LOWER LEVEL Q
VECTORS INDICATE AN AXIS OF GOOD CONVERGENCE WORKING ACROSS THE
AREA FROM 06Z TO 12Z. THUS WILL RAISE POPS...FOCUSING HIGHEST POPS
DURING THE 06Z-12Z WINDOW...AND RAMPING HIGHER DURING THE EVENING.
GIVEN THE MINIMAL CHANGE IN AIR MASS AND THE EXPECTED RAIN WILL
STICK CLOSE TO THE RATHER WARM GUIDANCE LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN SOME ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO EFFECT THE AREA THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY.
GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT BEST FORCING EXITS THE AREA BY 18Z AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO DRY OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
700MB SHOW GOOD SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL KEEP SOME CHC POPS IN THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE FORCING DEPARTS. WITH 850MB
TEMPS HOLDING AROUND 13C...THE WARMER MAVMOS HIGHS ARE BETTER THAN
THE COOLER METMOS. WILL TREND CLOSER TO THE MAV.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE DRY ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. GOOD SUBSIDENCE ALSO REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DRY WITH LOWS CLOSE TO THE
COOLER MAVMOS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SATURATED FROM TOP DOWN ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS SMALL CAPE VALUES...LESS THAN 1000 J/KG REMAIN
PRESENT. FURTHERMORE GFS DEPICTS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PUSHING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON MONDAY TO COVER FOR THIS
EVENT. AGAIN WILL STICK CLOSE TO EXPECTED PERSISTENCE ON HIGH
TEMPS AS 850MB TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE.
GFS AND NAM BOTH DEPICT A STRONGER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THIS BETTER...MORE ORGANIZED FORCING EXPECTED WILL
RAISE POPS BOTH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WILL ALSO TREND LOWS
WARMER AND HIGHS COOLER WITH EXPECTED RAIN AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COOLER AIR MASS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
MODELS AGREE ON EASTERN AND WESTERN TROUGHING WITH A RIDGE ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TO START THE EXTENDED. THEN...NORTHWESTERN UPPER LOW AND
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING ITS BASE ACT TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP IT DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. THEN...WPC BRINGS A WARM FRONT TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL
INDIANA...AND REGIONAL INITIALIZATION BROUGHT IN SOME POPS.
HOWEVER...WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WILL
LEAVE IT DRY FOR NOW PER ADJACENT OFFICES AND COORDINATION.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL BY LATE WEEK PER INITIALIZATION.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 16/00Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
VFR THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF ANY
POSSIBLE SHOWERS.
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER MISSOURI IS
UNLIKELY TO RETAIN A SIGNIFICANT THUNDER PRODUCING CAPACITY AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD INTO INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW FOR EVEN A
VICINITY MENTION. WILL CARRY VCSH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...JAS/PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
000
FXUS63 KIND 152313
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
713 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND DRY WEATHER
SHOULD RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUED TO
PERSIST AMID A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PROVIDING WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW SHORT WAVES OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...STREAMING EAST IN THE FLATTENING FLOW
ALOFT.
RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHRA AND TSRA OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS STREAMING
EASTWARD...BUT HAVING DIFFICULTY PUSHING EAST OF THE WABASH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY SATURATED COLUMN. 310K GFS
ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LIFT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS THAT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA TOWARD 00Z...HOWEVER THE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR AS
SHARP. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW BEST LIFT AND SATURATION TOWARD 12Z
SUNDAY...AS DO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. FURTHERMORE LOWER LEVEL Q
VECTORS INDICATE AN AXIS OF GOOD CONVERGENCE WORKING ACROSS THE
AREA FROM 06Z TO 12Z. THUS WILL RAISE POPS...FOCUSING HIGHEST POPS
DURING THE 06Z-12Z WINDOW...AND RAMPING HIGHER DURING THE EVENING.
GIVEN THE MINIMAL CHANGE IN AIR MASS AND THE EXPECTED RAIN WILL
STICK CLOSE TO THE RATHER WARM GUIDANCE LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN SOME ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO EFFECT THE AREA THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY.
GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT BEST FORCING EXITS THE AREA BY 18Z AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO DRY OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
700MB SHOW GOOD SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL KEEP SOME CHC POPS IN THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE FORCING DEPARTS. WITH 850MB
TEMPS HOLDING AROUND 13C...THE WARMER MAVMOS HIGHS ARE BETTER THAN
THE COOLER METMOS. WILL TREND CLOSER TO THE MAV.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE DRY ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. GOOD SUBSIDENCE ALSO REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DRY WITH LOWS CLOSE TO THE
COOLER MAVMOS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SATURATED FROM TOP DOWN ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS SMALL CAPE VALUES...LESS THAN 1000 J/KG REMAIN
PRESENT. FURTHERMORE GFS DEPICTS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PUSHING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON MONDAY TO COVER FOR THIS
EVENT. AGAIN WILL STICK CLOSE TO EXPECTED PERSISTENCE ON HIGH
TEMPS AS 850MB TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE.
GFS AND NAM BOTH DEPICT A STRONGER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THIS BETTER...MORE ORGANIZED FORCING EXPECTED WILL
RAISE POPS BOTH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WILL ALSO TREND LOWS
WARMER AND HIGHS COOLER WITH EXPECTED RAIN AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COOLER AIR MASS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
MODELS AGREE ON EASTERN AND WESTERN TROUGHING WITH A RIDGE ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TO START THE EXTENDED. THEN...NORTHWESTERN UPPER LOW AND
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING ITS BASE ACT TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP IT DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. THEN...WPC BRINGS A WARM FRONT TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL
INDIANA...AND REGIONAL INITIALIZATION BROUGHT IN SOME POPS.
HOWEVER...WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WILL
LEAVE IT DRY FOR NOW PER ADJACENT OFFICES AND COORDINATION.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL BY LATE WEEK PER INITIALIZATION.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 16/00Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
VFR THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF ANY
POSSIBLE SHOWERS.
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER MISSOURI IS
UNLIKELY TO RETAIN A SIGNIFICANT THUNDER PRODUCING CAPACITY AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD INTO INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW FOR EVEN A
VICINITY MENTION. WILL CARRY VCSH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
| 
