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000
FXUS63 KIND 030221
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THIS RIDGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING LOW CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1011 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES. ISOLATED CONVECTION
DIMINISHED SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS EXPECTED WITH STABILIZING
ENVIRONMENT. DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S.
CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION ACROSS THE EAST INTO EARLY EVENING AND THEN GO DRY THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND NIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE PERSISTENCE OVERNIGHT PER
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS. CONSENSUS NUMBERS WERE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM
AND ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

MORE OF THE SAME IS THE NAME OF THE GAME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SUBTLE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CANNOT GO MUCH HIGHER THAN A 20 OR 30
POP IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNFICANT UPPER SUPPORT AND ANY SORT OF
SURFACE REFLECTION.

THICKNESSES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE
PERSISTENCE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR HIGHS. CONSENSUS NUMBERS WERE A BIT
TOO COOL BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION AND WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
MINS APPEARED A BIT TOO WARM AND WERE PERHAPS A RESULT OF MODELS
ANTICIPATING MORE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP OVERNIGHTS THAN WHAT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE INTIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL SOFTWARE WILL BE ACCEPTED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE DROPS SHARPLY LATER.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS FROM ALL MODELS AGREE WELL THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND SUPPORT THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT A ZONAL FLOW REPLACES RIDGING ALOFT AND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY TRIES TO MOVE IN.

AT THAT POINT SURFACE PRESSURE STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE ENSEMBLE
SHOW A MAXIMUM OVER INDIANA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS MEANS
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CANT AGREE WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE WITH
RESPECT TO INDIANA. UNTIL WE ARE SURE OF THAT WE CANT BE SURE OF
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 030000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PPREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DRY WEATHER WITH PREVAILING VFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE REMAINING DIURNAL CU BURNS OFF AFTER SUNSET. AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER WISCONSIN WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR VICINITY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO KLAF NEARING THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND A SIMILAR AIR MASS AS THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES AS EARLY AS
08Z. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF FOG.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MMB/MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 030221
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THIS RIDGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING LOW CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1011 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES. ISOLATED CONVECTION
DIMINISHED SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS EXPECTED WITH STABILIZING
ENVIRONMENT. DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S.
CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION ACROSS THE EAST INTO EARLY EVENING AND THEN GO DRY THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND NIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE PERSISTENCE OVERNIGHT PER
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS. CONSENSUS NUMBERS WERE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM
AND ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

MORE OF THE SAME IS THE NAME OF THE GAME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SUBTLE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CANNOT GO MUCH HIGHER THAN A 20 OR 30
POP IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNFICANT UPPER SUPPORT AND ANY SORT OF
SURFACE REFLECTION.

THICKNESSES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE
PERSISTENCE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR HIGHS. CONSENSUS NUMBERS WERE A BIT
TOO COOL BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION AND WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
MINS APPEARED A BIT TOO WARM AND WERE PERHAPS A RESULT OF MODELS
ANTICIPATING MORE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP OVERNIGHTS THAN WHAT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE INTIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL SOFTWARE WILL BE ACCEPTED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE DROPS SHARPLY LATER.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS FROM ALL MODELS AGREE WELL THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND SUPPORT THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT A ZONAL FLOW REPLACES RIDGING ALOFT AND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY TRIES TO MOVE IN.

AT THAT POINT SURFACE PRESSURE STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE ENSEMBLE
SHOW A MAXIMUM OVER INDIANA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS MEANS
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CANT AGREE WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE WITH
RESPECT TO INDIANA. UNTIL WE ARE SURE OF THAT WE CANT BE SURE OF
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 030000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PPREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DRY WEATHER WITH PREVAILING VFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE REMAINING DIURNAL CU BURNS OFF AFTER SUNSET. AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER WISCONSIN WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR VICINITY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO KLAF NEARING THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND A SIMILAR AIR MASS AS THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES AS EARLY AS
08Z. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF FOG.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MMB/MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 030215
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1015 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THIS RIDGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING LOW CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1011 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES. ISOLATED CONVECTION
DIMINISHED SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS EXPECTED WITH STABILIZING
ENVIRONMENT. DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S.
CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION ACROSS THE EAST INTO EARLY EVENING AND THEN GO DRY THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND NIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE PERSISTENCE OVERNIGHT PER
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS. CONSENSUS NUMBERS WERE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM
AND ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

MORE OF THE SAME IS THE NAME OF THE GAME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SUBTLE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CANNOT GO MUCH HIGHER THAN A 20 OR 30
POP IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNFICANT UPPER SUPPORT AND ANY SORT OF
SURFACE REFLECTION.

THICKNESSES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE
PERSISTENCE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR HIGHS. CONSENSUS NUMBERS WERE A BIT
TOO COOL BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION AND WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
MINS APPEARED A BIT TOO WARM AND WERE PERHAPS A RESULT OF MODELS
ANTICIPATING MORE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP OVERNIGHTS THAN WHAT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE INTIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL SOFTWARE WILL BE ACCEPTED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE DROPS SHARPLY LATER.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS FROM ALL MODELS AGREE WELL THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND SUPPORT THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT A ZONAL FLOW REPLACES RIDGING ALOFT AND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY TRIES TO MOVE IN.

AT THAT POINT SURFACE PRESSURE STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE ENSEMBLE
SHOW A MAXIMUM OVER INDIANA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS MEANS
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CANT AGREE WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE WITH
RESPECT TO INDIANA. UNTIL WE ARE SURE OF THAT WE CANT BE SURE OF
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 030000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DRY WEATHER WITH PREVAILING VFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE REMAINING DIURNAL CU BURNS OFF AFTER SUNSET. AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER WISCONSIN WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR VICINITY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO KLAF NEARING THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND A SIMILAR AIR MASS AS THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES AS EARLY AS
08Z. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF FOG.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MMB/MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 030215
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1015 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THIS RIDGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING LOW CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1011 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES. ISOLATED CONVECTION
DIMINISHED SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS EXPECTED WITH STABILIZING
ENVIRONMENT. DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S.
CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION ACROSS THE EAST INTO EARLY EVENING AND THEN GO DRY THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND NIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE PERSISTENCE OVERNIGHT PER
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS. CONSENSUS NUMBERS WERE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM
AND ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

MORE OF THE SAME IS THE NAME OF THE GAME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SUBTLE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CANNOT GO MUCH HIGHER THAN A 20 OR 30
POP IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNFICANT UPPER SUPPORT AND ANY SORT OF
SURFACE REFLECTION.

THICKNESSES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE
PERSISTENCE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR HIGHS. CONSENSUS NUMBERS WERE A BIT
TOO COOL BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION AND WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
MINS APPEARED A BIT TOO WARM AND WERE PERHAPS A RESULT OF MODELS
ANTICIPATING MORE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP OVERNIGHTS THAN WHAT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE INTIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL SOFTWARE WILL BE ACCEPTED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE DROPS SHARPLY LATER.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS FROM ALL MODELS AGREE WELL THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND SUPPORT THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT A ZONAL FLOW REPLACES RIDGING ALOFT AND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY TRIES TO MOVE IN.

AT THAT POINT SURFACE PRESSURE STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE ENSEMBLE
SHOW A MAXIMUM OVER INDIANA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS MEANS
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CANT AGREE WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE WITH
RESPECT TO INDIANA. UNTIL WE ARE SURE OF THAT WE CANT BE SURE OF
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 030000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DRY WEATHER WITH PREVAILING VFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE REMAINING DIURNAL CU BURNS OFF AFTER SUNSET. AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER WISCONSIN WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR VICINITY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO KLAF NEARING THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND A SIMILAR AIR MASS AS THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES AS EARLY AS
08Z. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF FOG.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MMB/MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 022322
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
722 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THIS RIDGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING LOW CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT...AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE HAS PULLED EASTWARD TODAY CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION ACROSS THE EAST INTO EARLY EVENING AND THEN GO DRY THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND NIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE PERSISTENCE OVERNIGHT PER
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS. CONSENSUS NUMBERS WERE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM
AND ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

MORE OF THE SAME IS THE NAME OF THE GAME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SUBTLE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CANNOT GO MUCH HIGHER THAN A 20 OR 30
POP IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNFICANT UPPER SUPPORT AND ANY SORT OF
SURFACE REFLECTION.

THICKNESSES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE
PERSISTENCE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR HIGHS. CONSENSUS NUMBERS WERE A BIT
TOO COOL BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION AND WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
MINS APPEARED A BIT TOO WARM AND WERE PERHAPS A RESULT OF MODELS
ANTICIPATING MORE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP OVERNIGHTS THAN WHAT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE INTIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL SOFTWARE WILL BE ACCEPTED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE DROPS SHARPLY LATER.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS FROM ALL MODELS AGREE WELL THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND SUPPORT THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT A ZONAL FLOW REPLACES RIDGING ALOFT AND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY TRIES TO MOVE IN.

AT THAT POINT SURFACE PRESSURE STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE ENSEMBLE
SHOW A MAXIMUM OVER INDIANA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS MEANS
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CANT AGREE WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE WITH
RESPECT TO INDIANA. UNTIL WE ARE SURE OF THAT WE CANT BE SURE OF
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 030000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DRY WEATHER WITH PREVAILING VFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE REMAINING DIURNAL CU BURNS OFF AFTER SUNSET. AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER WISCONSIN WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR VICINITY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO KLAF NEARING THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND A SIMILAR AIR MASS AS THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES AS EARLY AS
08Z. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF FOG.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MMB/MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 022322
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
722 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THIS RIDGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING LOW CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT...AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE HAS PULLED EASTWARD TODAY CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION ACROSS THE EAST INTO EARLY EVENING AND THEN GO DRY THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND NIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE PERSISTENCE OVERNIGHT PER
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS. CONSENSUS NUMBERS WERE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM
AND ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

MORE OF THE SAME IS THE NAME OF THE GAME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SUBTLE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CANNOT GO MUCH HIGHER THAN A 20 OR 30
POP IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNFICANT UPPER SUPPORT AND ANY SORT OF
SURFACE REFLECTION.

THICKNESSES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE
PERSISTENCE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR HIGHS. CONSENSUS NUMBERS WERE A BIT
TOO COOL BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION AND WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
MINS APPEARED A BIT TOO WARM AND WERE PERHAPS A RESULT OF MODELS
ANTICIPATING MORE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP OVERNIGHTS THAN WHAT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE INTIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL SOFTWARE WILL BE ACCEPTED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE DROPS SHARPLY LATER.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS FROM ALL MODELS AGREE WELL THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND SUPPORT THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT A ZONAL FLOW REPLACES RIDGING ALOFT AND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY TRIES TO MOVE IN.

AT THAT POINT SURFACE PRESSURE STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE ENSEMBLE
SHOW A MAXIMUM OVER INDIANA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS MEANS
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CANT AGREE WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE WITH
RESPECT TO INDIANA. UNTIL WE ARE SURE OF THAT WE CANT BE SURE OF
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 030000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DRY WEATHER WITH PREVAILING VFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE REMAINING DIURNAL CU BURNS OFF AFTER SUNSET. AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER WISCONSIN WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR VICINITY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO KLAF NEARING THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND A SIMILAR AIR MASS AS THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES AS EARLY AS
08Z. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF FOG.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MMB/MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 022322
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
722 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THIS RIDGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING LOW CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT...AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE HAS PULLED EASTWARD TODAY CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION ACROSS THE EAST INTO EARLY EVENING AND THEN GO DRY THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND NIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE PERSISTENCE OVERNIGHT PER
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS. CONSENSUS NUMBERS WERE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM
AND ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

MORE OF THE SAME IS THE NAME OF THE GAME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SUBTLE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CANNOT GO MUCH HIGHER THAN A 20 OR 30
POP IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNFICANT UPPER SUPPORT AND ANY SORT OF
SURFACE REFLECTION.

THICKNESSES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE
PERSISTENCE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR HIGHS. CONSENSUS NUMBERS WERE A BIT
TOO COOL BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION AND WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
MINS APPEARED A BIT TOO WARM AND WERE PERHAPS A RESULT OF MODELS
ANTICIPATING MORE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP OVERNIGHTS THAN WHAT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE INTIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL SOFTWARE WILL BE ACCEPTED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE DROPS SHARPLY LATER.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS FROM ALL MODELS AGREE WELL THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND SUPPORT THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT A ZONAL FLOW REPLACES RIDGING ALOFT AND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY TRIES TO MOVE IN.

AT THAT POINT SURFACE PRESSURE STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE ENSEMBLE
SHOW A MAXIMUM OVER INDIANA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS MEANS
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CANT AGREE WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE WITH
RESPECT TO INDIANA. UNTIL WE ARE SURE OF THAT WE CANT BE SURE OF
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 030000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DRY WEATHER WITH PREVAILING VFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE REMAINING DIURNAL CU BURNS OFF AFTER SUNSET. AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER WISCONSIN WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR VICINITY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO KLAF NEARING THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND A SIMILAR AIR MASS AS THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES AS EARLY AS
08Z. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF FOG.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MMB/MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 022322
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
722 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THIS RIDGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING LOW CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT...AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE HAS PULLED EASTWARD TODAY CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION ACROSS THE EAST INTO EARLY EVENING AND THEN GO DRY THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND NIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE PERSISTENCE OVERNIGHT PER
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS. CONSENSUS NUMBERS WERE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM
AND ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

MORE OF THE SAME IS THE NAME OF THE GAME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SUBTLE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CANNOT GO MUCH HIGHER THAN A 20 OR 30
POP IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNFICANT UPPER SUPPORT AND ANY SORT OF
SURFACE REFLECTION.

THICKNESSES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE
PERSISTENCE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR HIGHS. CONSENSUS NUMBERS WERE A BIT
TOO COOL BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION AND WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
MINS APPEARED A BIT TOO WARM AND WERE PERHAPS A RESULT OF MODELS
ANTICIPATING MORE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP OVERNIGHTS THAN WHAT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE INTIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL SOFTWARE WILL BE ACCEPTED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE DROPS SHARPLY LATER.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS FROM ALL MODELS AGREE WELL THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND SUPPORT THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT A ZONAL FLOW REPLACES RIDGING ALOFT AND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY TRIES TO MOVE IN.

AT THAT POINT SURFACE PRESSURE STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE ENSEMBLE
SHOW A MAXIMUM OVER INDIANA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS MEANS
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CANT AGREE WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE WITH
RESPECT TO INDIANA. UNTIL WE ARE SURE OF THAT WE CANT BE SURE OF
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 030000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DRY WEATHER WITH PREVAILING VFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE REMAINING DIURNAL CU BURNS OFF AFTER SUNSET. AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER WISCONSIN WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR VICINITY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO KLAF NEARING THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND A SIMILAR AIR MASS AS THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES AS EARLY AS
08Z. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF FOG.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MMB/MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 022027
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THIS RIDGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING LOW CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT...AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE HAS PULLED EASTWARD TODAY CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION ACROSS THE EAST INTO EARLY EVENING AND THEN GO DRY THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND NIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE PERSISTENCE OVERNIGHT PER
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS. CONSENSUS NUMBERS WERE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM
AND ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

MORE OF THE SAME IS THE NAME OF THE GAME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SUBTLE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CANNOT GO MUCH HIGHER THAN A 20 OR 30
POP IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNFICANT UPPER SUPPORT AND ANY SORT OF
SURFACE REFLECTION.

THICKNESSES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE
PERSISTENCE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR HIGHS. CONSENSUS NUMBERS WERE A BIT
TOO COOL BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION AND WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
MINS APPEARED A BIT TOO WARM AND WERE PERHAPS A RESULT OF MODELS
ANTICIPATING MORE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP OVERNIGHTS THAN WHAT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE INTIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL SOFTWARE WILL BE ACCEPTED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE DROPS SHARPLY LATER.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS FROM ALL MODELS AGREE WELL THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND SUPPORT THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT A ZONAL FLOW REPLACES RIDGING ALOFT AND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY TRIES TO MOVE IN.

AT THAT POINT SURFACE PRESSURE STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE ENSEMBLE
SHOW A MAXIMUM OVER INDIANA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS MEANS
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CANT AGREE WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE WITH
RESPECT TO INDIANA. UNTIL WE ARE SURE OF THAT WE CANT BE SURE OF
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 022100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

CU BEGINNING TO FORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
BEING MET. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE TO CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE REMNANT UPPER WAVE NOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND BEING REPLACED WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. WATER
VAPOR FEED SHOWS PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT TODAY AS WELL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH NO MENTION OF CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...LARGELY OSCILLATING BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
AT LESS THAN 10KTS.

CU WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET WITH ONLY A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH DYING AREA OF
CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SETUP IS
ONCE AGAIN IDEAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS.
APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY MAY BRING
A BIT FASTER DEVELOPMENT TO CU IN THE MORNING WITH A GREATER
ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS GREATER
THURSDAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH ANY IMPACTS WOULD LIKELY BE FOCUSED
AFTER 18Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...RYAN/MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 022027
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THIS RIDGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING LOW CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT...AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE HAS PULLED EASTWARD TODAY CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION ACROSS THE EAST INTO EARLY EVENING AND THEN GO DRY THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND NIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE PERSISTENCE OVERNIGHT PER
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS. CONSENSUS NUMBERS WERE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM
AND ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

MORE OF THE SAME IS THE NAME OF THE GAME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SUBTLE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CANNOT GO MUCH HIGHER THAN A 20 OR 30
POP IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNFICANT UPPER SUPPORT AND ANY SORT OF
SURFACE REFLECTION.

THICKNESSES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE
PERSISTENCE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR HIGHS. CONSENSUS NUMBERS WERE A BIT
TOO COOL BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION AND WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
MINS APPEARED A BIT TOO WARM AND WERE PERHAPS A RESULT OF MODELS
ANTICIPATING MORE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP OVERNIGHTS THAN WHAT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE INTIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL SOFTWARE WILL BE ACCEPTED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE DROPS SHARPLY LATER.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS FROM ALL MODELS AGREE WELL THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND SUPPORT THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT A ZONAL FLOW REPLACES RIDGING ALOFT AND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY TRIES TO MOVE IN.

AT THAT POINT SURFACE PRESSURE STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE ENSEMBLE
SHOW A MAXIMUM OVER INDIANA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS MEANS
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CANT AGREE WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE WITH
RESPECT TO INDIANA. UNTIL WE ARE SURE OF THAT WE CANT BE SURE OF
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 022100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

CU BEGINNING TO FORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
BEING MET. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE TO CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE REMNANT UPPER WAVE NOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND BEING REPLACED WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. WATER
VAPOR FEED SHOWS PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT TODAY AS WELL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH NO MENTION OF CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...LARGELY OSCILLATING BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
AT LESS THAN 10KTS.

CU WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET WITH ONLY A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH DYING AREA OF
CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SETUP IS
ONCE AGAIN IDEAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS.
APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY MAY BRING
A BIT FASTER DEVELOPMENT TO CU IN THE MORNING WITH A GREATER
ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS GREATER
THURSDAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH ANY IMPACTS WOULD LIKELY BE FOCUSED
AFTER 18Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...RYAN/MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 021950
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THIS RIDGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING LOW CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT...AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE HAS PULLED EASTWARD TODAY CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION ACROSS THE EAST INTO EARLY EVENING AND THEN GO DRY THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND NIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE PERSISTENCE OVERNIGHT PER
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS. CONSENSUS NUMBERS WERE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM
AND ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

MORE OF THE SAME IS THE NAME OF THE GAME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SUBTLE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CANNOT GO MUCH HIGHER THAN A 20 OR 30
POP IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNFICANT UPPER SUPPORT AND ANY SORT OF
SURFACE REFLECTION.

THICKNESSES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE
PERSISTENCE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR HIGHS. CONSENSUS NUMBERS WERE A BIT
TOO COOL BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION AND WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
MINS APPEARED A BIT TOO WARM AND WERE PERHAPS A RESULT OF MODELS
ANTICIPATING MORE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP OVERNIGHTS THAN WHAT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE INTIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL SOFTWARE WILL BE ACCEPTED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE DROPS SHARPLY LATER.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS FROM ALL MODELS AGREE WELL THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND SUPPORT THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT A ZONAL FLOW REPLACES RIDGING ALOFT AND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY TRIES TO MOVE IN.

AT THAT POINT SURFACE PRESSURE STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE ENSEMBLE
SHOW A MAXIMUM OVER INDIANA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS MEANS
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CANT AGREE WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE WITH
RESPECT TO INDIANA. UNTIL WE ARE SURE OF THAT WE CANT BE SURE OF
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

CU BEGINNING TO FORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
BEING MET. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE TO CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE REMNANT UPPER WAVE NOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND BEING REPLACED WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. WATER
VAPOR FEED SHOWS PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT TODAY AS WELL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH NO MENTION OF CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...LARGELY OSCILLATING BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
AT LESS THAN 10KTS.

CU WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET WITH ONLY A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH DYING AREA OF
CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SETUP IS
ONCE AGAIN IDEAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS.
APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY MAY BRING
A BIT FASTER DEVELOPMENT TO CU IN THE MORNING WITH A GREATER
ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS GREATER
THURSDAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH ANY IMPACTS WOULD LIKELY BE FOCUSED
AFTER 18Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...RYAN




000
FXUS63 KIND 021950
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THIS RIDGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING LOW CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT...AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE HAS PULLED EASTWARD TODAY CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION ACROSS THE EAST INTO EARLY EVENING AND THEN GO DRY THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND NIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE PERSISTENCE OVERNIGHT PER
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS. CONSENSUS NUMBERS WERE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM
AND ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

MORE OF THE SAME IS THE NAME OF THE GAME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SUBTLE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CANNOT GO MUCH HIGHER THAN A 20 OR 30
POP IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNFICANT UPPER SUPPORT AND ANY SORT OF
SURFACE REFLECTION.

THICKNESSES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE
PERSISTENCE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR HIGHS. CONSENSUS NUMBERS WERE A BIT
TOO COOL BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION AND WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
MINS APPEARED A BIT TOO WARM AND WERE PERHAPS A RESULT OF MODELS
ANTICIPATING MORE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP OVERNIGHTS THAN WHAT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE INTIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL SOFTWARE WILL BE ACCEPTED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE DROPS SHARPLY LATER.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS FROM ALL MODELS AGREE WELL THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND SUPPORT THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT A ZONAL FLOW REPLACES RIDGING ALOFT AND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY TRIES TO MOVE IN.

AT THAT POINT SURFACE PRESSURE STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE ENSEMBLE
SHOW A MAXIMUM OVER INDIANA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS MEANS
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CANT AGREE WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE WITH
RESPECT TO INDIANA. UNTIL WE ARE SURE OF THAT WE CANT BE SURE OF
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

CU BEGINNING TO FORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
BEING MET. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE TO CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE REMNANT UPPER WAVE NOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND BEING REPLACED WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. WATER
VAPOR FEED SHOWS PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT TODAY AS WELL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH NO MENTION OF CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...LARGELY OSCILLATING BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
AT LESS THAN 10KTS.

CU WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET WITH ONLY A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH DYING AREA OF
CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SETUP IS
ONCE AGAIN IDEAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS.
APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY MAY BRING
A BIT FASTER DEVELOPMENT TO CU IN THE MORNING WITH A GREATER
ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS GREATER
THURSDAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH ANY IMPACTS WOULD LIKELY BE FOCUSED
AFTER 18Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...RYAN





000
FXUS63 KIND 021736
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
136 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA YESTERDAY WILL BE OVER OHIO TODAY
AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS MOVE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FROM LABOR DAY AND ON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HAVE REMOVED LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
PER RADAR TRENDS. WILL MAINTAIN THEM IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE TIME
BEING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. I CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG NEXT
FEW AREAS...BUT UNLESS IT INCREASES QUICKLY WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
NEW FORECAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S.   WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION WAS OVER
WESTERN OHIO.  THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS TODAY. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IT HAS BEEN OVER AGGRESSIVE SO FAR.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
DRY FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WILL GO DRY TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES.
THE OHIO DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE MODELS
BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY.  WILL GO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AGAIN FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT +17 TO +19 DEGREES.  WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALL 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE INTIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL SOFTWARE WILL BE ACCEPTED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE DROPS SHARPLY LATER.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS FROM ALL MODELS AGREE WELL THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND SUPPORT THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT A ZONAL FLOW REPLACES RIDGING ALOFT AND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY TRIES TO MOVE IN.

AT THAT POINT SURFACE PRESSURE STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE ENSEMBLE
SHOW A MAXIMUM OVER INDIANA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS MEANS
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CANT AGREE WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE WITH
RESPECT TO INDIANA. UNTIL WE ARE SURE OF THAT WE CANT BE SURE OF
THE FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

CU BEGINNING TO FORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
BEING MET. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE TO CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE REMNANT UPPER WAVE NOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND BEING REPLACED WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. WATER
VAPOR FEED SHOWS PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT TODAY AS WELL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH NO MENTION OF CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...LARGELY OSCILLATING BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
AT LESS THAN 10KTS.

CU WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET WITH ONLY A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH DYING AREA OF
CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SETUP IS
ONCE AGAIN IDEAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS.
APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY MAY BRING
A BIT FASTER DEVELOPMENT TO CU IN THE MORNING WITH A GREATER
ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS GREATER
THURSDAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH ANY IMPACTS WOULD LIKELY BE FOCUSED
AFTER 18Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/NIELD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...RYAN





000
FXUS63 KIND 021736
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
136 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA YESTERDAY WILL BE OVER OHIO TODAY
AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS MOVE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FROM LABOR DAY AND ON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HAVE REMOVED LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
PER RADAR TRENDS. WILL MAINTAIN THEM IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE TIME
BEING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. I CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG NEXT
FEW AREAS...BUT UNLESS IT INCREASES QUICKLY WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
NEW FORECAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S.   WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION WAS OVER
WESTERN OHIO.  THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS TODAY. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IT HAS BEEN OVER AGGRESSIVE SO FAR.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
DRY FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WILL GO DRY TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES.
THE OHIO DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE MODELS
BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY.  WILL GO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AGAIN FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT +17 TO +19 DEGREES.  WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALL 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE INTIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL SOFTWARE WILL BE ACCEPTED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE DROPS SHARPLY LATER.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS FROM ALL MODELS AGREE WELL THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND SUPPORT THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT A ZONAL FLOW REPLACES RIDGING ALOFT AND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY TRIES TO MOVE IN.

AT THAT POINT SURFACE PRESSURE STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE ENSEMBLE
SHOW A MAXIMUM OVER INDIANA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS MEANS
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CANT AGREE WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE WITH
RESPECT TO INDIANA. UNTIL WE ARE SURE OF THAT WE CANT BE SURE OF
THE FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

CU BEGINNING TO FORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
BEING MET. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE TO CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE REMNANT UPPER WAVE NOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND BEING REPLACED WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. WATER
VAPOR FEED SHOWS PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT TODAY AS WELL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH NO MENTION OF CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...LARGELY OSCILLATING BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
AT LESS THAN 10KTS.

CU WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET WITH ONLY A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH DYING AREA OF
CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SETUP IS
ONCE AGAIN IDEAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS.
APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY MAY BRING
A BIT FASTER DEVELOPMENT TO CU IN THE MORNING WITH A GREATER
ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS GREATER
THURSDAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH ANY IMPACTS WOULD LIKELY BE FOCUSED
AFTER 18Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/NIELD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...RYAN




000
FXUS63 KIND 021736
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
136 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA YESTERDAY WILL BE OVER OHIO TODAY
AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS MOVE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FROM LABOR DAY AND ON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HAVE REMOVED LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
PER RADAR TRENDS. WILL MAINTAIN THEM IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE TIME
BEING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. I CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG NEXT
FEW AREAS...BUT UNLESS IT INCREASES QUICKLY WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
NEW FORECAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S.   WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION WAS OVER
WESTERN OHIO.  THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS TODAY. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IT HAS BEEN OVER AGGRESSIVE SO FAR.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
DRY FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WILL GO DRY TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES.
THE OHIO DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE MODELS
BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY.  WILL GO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AGAIN FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT +17 TO +19 DEGREES.  WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALL 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE INTIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL SOFTWARE WILL BE ACCEPTED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE DROPS SHARPLY LATER.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS FROM ALL MODELS AGREE WELL THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND SUPPORT THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT A ZONAL FLOW REPLACES RIDGING ALOFT AND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY TRIES TO MOVE IN.

AT THAT POINT SURFACE PRESSURE STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE ENSEMBLE
SHOW A MAXIMUM OVER INDIANA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS MEANS
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CANT AGREE WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE WITH
RESPECT TO INDIANA. UNTIL WE ARE SURE OF THAT WE CANT BE SURE OF
THE FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

CU BEGINNING TO FORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
BEING MET. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE TO CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE REMNANT UPPER WAVE NOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND BEING REPLACED WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. WATER
VAPOR FEED SHOWS PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT TODAY AS WELL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH NO MENTION OF CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...LARGELY OSCILLATING BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
AT LESS THAN 10KTS.

CU WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET WITH ONLY A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH DYING AREA OF
CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SETUP IS
ONCE AGAIN IDEAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS.
APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY MAY BRING
A BIT FASTER DEVELOPMENT TO CU IN THE MORNING WITH A GREATER
ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS GREATER
THURSDAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH ANY IMPACTS WOULD LIKELY BE FOCUSED
AFTER 18Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/NIELD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...RYAN





000
FXUS63 KIND 021736
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
136 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA YESTERDAY WILL BE OVER OHIO TODAY
AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS MOVE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FROM LABOR DAY AND ON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HAVE REMOVED LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
PER RADAR TRENDS. WILL MAINTAIN THEM IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE TIME
BEING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. I CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG NEXT
FEW AREAS...BUT UNLESS IT INCREASES QUICKLY WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
NEW FORECAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S.   WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION WAS OVER
WESTERN OHIO.  THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS TODAY. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IT HAS BEEN OVER AGGRESSIVE SO FAR.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
DRY FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WILL GO DRY TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES.
THE OHIO DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE MODELS
BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY.  WILL GO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AGAIN FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT +17 TO +19 DEGREES.  WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALL 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE INTIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL SOFTWARE WILL BE ACCEPTED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE DROPS SHARPLY LATER.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS FROM ALL MODELS AGREE WELL THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND SUPPORT THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT A ZONAL FLOW REPLACES RIDGING ALOFT AND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY TRIES TO MOVE IN.

AT THAT POINT SURFACE PRESSURE STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE ENSEMBLE
SHOW A MAXIMUM OVER INDIANA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS MEANS
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CANT AGREE WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE WITH
RESPECT TO INDIANA. UNTIL WE ARE SURE OF THAT WE CANT BE SURE OF
THE FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

CU BEGINNING TO FORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
BEING MET. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE TO CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE REMNANT UPPER WAVE NOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND BEING REPLACED WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. WATER
VAPOR FEED SHOWS PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT TODAY AS WELL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH NO MENTION OF CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...LARGELY OSCILLATING BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
AT LESS THAN 10KTS.

CU WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET WITH ONLY A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH DYING AREA OF
CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SETUP IS
ONCE AGAIN IDEAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS.
APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY MAY BRING
A BIT FASTER DEVELOPMENT TO CU IN THE MORNING WITH A GREATER
ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS GREATER
THURSDAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH ANY IMPACTS WOULD LIKELY BE FOCUSED
AFTER 18Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/NIELD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...RYAN




000
FXUS63 KIND 021717
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
117 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA YESTERDAY WILL BE OVER OHIO TODAY
AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS MOVE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FROM LABOR DAY AND ON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HAVE REMOVED LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
PER RADAR TRENDS. WILL MAINTAIN THEM IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE TIME
BEING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. I CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG NEXT
FEW AREAS...BUT UNLESS IT INCREASES QUICKLY WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
NEW FORECAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S.   WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION WAS OVER
WESTERN OHIO.  THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS TODAY. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IT HAS BEEN OVER AGGRESSIVE SO FAR.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
DRY FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WILL GO DRY TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES.
THE OHIO DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE MODELS
BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY.  WILL GO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AGAIN FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT +17 TO +19 DEGREES.  WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALL 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE IS NOT
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BY THAT TIME. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

CU BEGINNING TO FORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
BEING MET. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE TO CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE REMNANT UPPER WAVE NOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND BEING REPLACED WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. WATER
VAPOR FEED SHOWS PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT TODAY AS WELL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH NO MENTION OF CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...LARGELY OSCILLATING BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
AT LESS THAN 10KTS.

CU WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET WITH ONLY A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH DYING AREA OF
CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SETUP IS
ONCE AGAIN IDEAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS.
APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY MAY BRING
A BIT FASTER DEVELOPMENT TO CU IN THE MORNING WITH A GREATER
ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS GREATER
THURSDAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH ANY IMPACTS WOULD LIKELY BE FOCUSED
AFTER 18Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/NIELD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...RYAN




000
FXUS63 KIND 021717
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
117 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA YESTERDAY WILL BE OVER OHIO TODAY
AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS MOVE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FROM LABOR DAY AND ON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HAVE REMOVED LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
PER RADAR TRENDS. WILL MAINTAIN THEM IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE TIME
BEING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. I CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG NEXT
FEW AREAS...BUT UNLESS IT INCREASES QUICKLY WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
NEW FORECAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S.   WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION WAS OVER
WESTERN OHIO.  THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS TODAY. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IT HAS BEEN OVER AGGRESSIVE SO FAR.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
DRY FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WILL GO DRY TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES.
THE OHIO DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE MODELS
BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY.  WILL GO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AGAIN FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT +17 TO +19 DEGREES.  WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALL 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE IS NOT
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BY THAT TIME. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

CU BEGINNING TO FORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
BEING MET. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE TO CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE REMNANT UPPER WAVE NOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND BEING REPLACED WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. WATER
VAPOR FEED SHOWS PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT TODAY AS WELL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH NO MENTION OF CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...LARGELY OSCILLATING BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
AT LESS THAN 10KTS.

CU WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET WITH ONLY A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH DYING AREA OF
CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SETUP IS
ONCE AGAIN IDEAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS.
APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY MAY BRING
A BIT FASTER DEVELOPMENT TO CU IN THE MORNING WITH A GREATER
ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS GREATER
THURSDAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH ANY IMPACTS WOULD LIKELY BE FOCUSED
AFTER 18Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/NIELD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...RYAN





000
FXUS63 KIND 021717
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
117 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA YESTERDAY WILL BE OVER OHIO TODAY
AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS MOVE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FROM LABOR DAY AND ON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HAVE REMOVED LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
PER RADAR TRENDS. WILL MAINTAIN THEM IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE TIME
BEING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. I CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG NEXT
FEW AREAS...BUT UNLESS IT INCREASES QUICKLY WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
NEW FORECAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S.   WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION WAS OVER
WESTERN OHIO.  THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS TODAY. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IT HAS BEEN OVER AGGRESSIVE SO FAR.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
DRY FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WILL GO DRY TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES.
THE OHIO DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE MODELS
BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY.  WILL GO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AGAIN FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT +17 TO +19 DEGREES.  WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALL 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE IS NOT
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BY THAT TIME. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

CU BEGINNING TO FORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
BEING MET. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE TO CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE REMNANT UPPER WAVE NOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND BEING REPLACED WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. WATER
VAPOR FEED SHOWS PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT TODAY AS WELL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH NO MENTION OF CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...LARGELY OSCILLATING BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
AT LESS THAN 10KTS.

CU WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET WITH ONLY A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH DYING AREA OF
CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SETUP IS
ONCE AGAIN IDEAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS.
APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY MAY BRING
A BIT FASTER DEVELOPMENT TO CU IN THE MORNING WITH A GREATER
ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS GREATER
THURSDAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH ANY IMPACTS WOULD LIKELY BE FOCUSED
AFTER 18Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/NIELD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...RYAN




000
FXUS63 KIND 021431
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1031 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA YESTERDAY WILL BE OVER OHIO TODAY
AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS MOVE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FROM LABOR DAY AND ON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HAVE REMOVED LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
PER RADAR TRENDS. WILL MAINTAIN THEM IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE TIME
BEING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. I CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG NEXT
FEW AREAS...BUT UNLESS IT INCREASES QUICKLY WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
NEW FORECAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S.   WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION WAS OVER
WESTERN OHIO.  THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS TODAY. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IT HAS BEEN OVER AGGRESSIVE SO FAR.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
DRY FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WILL GO DRY TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES.
THE OHIO DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE MODELS
BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY.  WILL GO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AGAIN FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT +17 TO +19 DEGREES.  WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALL 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE IS NOT
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BY THAT TIME. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALL FOG HAS DISSIPATED AS OF 14Z AS EXPECTED. LITTLE ADJUSTMENT
NEEDED FOR MORNING UPDATE AS DIURNAL CU WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AREAS OF MVFR/PATCHY IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING SOME IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 021300Z OR
SO...ESPECIALLY IN THE KHUF/KBMG AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN LARGELY
ABSENT OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE KIND VICINITY. HOWEVER...AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME.
PROBABILITY OF DIRECT IMPACTS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. CB BASES 030-050.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME 240-270 DEGREES
AT 7-10 KTS BY MIDDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/NIELD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS/RYAN




000
FXUS63 KIND 021431
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1031 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA YESTERDAY WILL BE OVER OHIO TODAY
AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS MOVE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FROM LABOR DAY AND ON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HAVE REMOVED LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
PER RADAR TRENDS. WILL MAINTAIN THEM IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE TIME
BEING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. I CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG NEXT
FEW AREAS...BUT UNLESS IT INCREASES QUICKLY WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
NEW FORECAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S.   WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION WAS OVER
WESTERN OHIO.  THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS TODAY. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IT HAS BEEN OVER AGGRESSIVE SO FAR.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
DRY FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WILL GO DRY TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES.
THE OHIO DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE MODELS
BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY.  WILL GO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AGAIN FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT +17 TO +19 DEGREES.  WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALL 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE IS NOT
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BY THAT TIME. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALL FOG HAS DISSIPATED AS OF 14Z AS EXPECTED. LITTLE ADJUSTMENT
NEEDED FOR MORNING UPDATE AS DIURNAL CU WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AREAS OF MVFR/PATCHY IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING SOME IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 021300Z OR
SO...ESPECIALLY IN THE KHUF/KBMG AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN LARGELY
ABSENT OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE KIND VICINITY. HOWEVER...AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME.
PROBABILITY OF DIRECT IMPACTS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. CB BASES 030-050.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME 240-270 DEGREES
AT 7-10 KTS BY MIDDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/NIELD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS/RYAN





000
FXUS63 KIND 021431
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1031 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA YESTERDAY WILL BE OVER OHIO TODAY
AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS MOVE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FROM LABOR DAY AND ON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HAVE REMOVED LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
PER RADAR TRENDS. WILL MAINTAIN THEM IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE TIME
BEING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. I CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG NEXT
FEW AREAS...BUT UNLESS IT INCREASES QUICKLY WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
NEW FORECAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S.   WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION WAS OVER
WESTERN OHIO.  THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS TODAY. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IT HAS BEEN OVER AGGRESSIVE SO FAR.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
DRY FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WILL GO DRY TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES.
THE OHIO DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE MODELS
BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY.  WILL GO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AGAIN FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT +17 TO +19 DEGREES.  WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALL 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE IS NOT
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BY THAT TIME. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALL FOG HAS DISSIPATED AS OF 14Z AS EXPECTED. LITTLE ADJUSTMENT
NEEDED FOR MORNING UPDATE AS DIURNAL CU WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AREAS OF MVFR/PATCHY IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING SOME IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 021300Z OR
SO...ESPECIALLY IN THE KHUF/KBMG AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN LARGELY
ABSENT OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE KIND VICINITY. HOWEVER...AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME.
PROBABILITY OF DIRECT IMPACTS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. CB BASES 030-050.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME 240-270 DEGREES
AT 7-10 KTS BY MIDDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/NIELD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS/RYAN




000
FXUS63 KIND 021431
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1031 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA YESTERDAY WILL BE OVER OHIO TODAY
AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS MOVE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FROM LABOR DAY AND ON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

HAVE REMOVED LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
PER RADAR TRENDS. WILL MAINTAIN THEM IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE TIME
BEING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. I CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG NEXT
FEW AREAS...BUT UNLESS IT INCREASES QUICKLY WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
NEW FORECAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S.   WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION WAS OVER
WESTERN OHIO.  THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS TODAY. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IT HAS BEEN OVER AGGRESSIVE SO FAR.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
DRY FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WILL GO DRY TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES.
THE OHIO DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE MODELS
BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY.  WILL GO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AGAIN FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT +17 TO +19 DEGREES.  WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALL 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE IS NOT
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BY THAT TIME. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALL FOG HAS DISSIPATED AS OF 14Z AS EXPECTED. LITTLE ADJUSTMENT
NEEDED FOR MORNING UPDATE AS DIURNAL CU WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AREAS OF MVFR/PATCHY IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING SOME IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 021300Z OR
SO...ESPECIALLY IN THE KHUF/KBMG AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN LARGELY
ABSENT OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE KIND VICINITY. HOWEVER...AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME.
PROBABILITY OF DIRECT IMPACTS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. CB BASES 030-050.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME 240-270 DEGREES
AT 7-10 KTS BY MIDDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/NIELD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS/RYAN





000
FXUS63 KIND 021415
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1015 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA YESTERDAY WILL BE OVER OHIO TODAY
AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS MOVE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FROM LABOR DAY AND ON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. I CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG NEXT
FEW AREAS...BUT UNLESS IT INCREASES QUICKLY WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
NEW FORECAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S.   WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION WAS OVER
WESTERN OHIO.  THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS TODAY. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IT HAS BEEN OVER AGGRESSIVE SO FAR.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
DRY FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WILL GO DRY TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES.
THE OHIO DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE MODELS
BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY.  WILL GO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AGAIN FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT +17 TO +19 DEGREES.  WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALL 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE IS NOT
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BY THAT TIME. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALL FOG HAS DISSIPATED AS OF 14Z AS EXPECTED. LITTLE ADJUSTMENT
NEEDED FOR MORNING UPDATE AS DIURNAL CU WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AREAS OF MVFR/PATCHY IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING SOME IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 021300Z OR
SO...ESPECIALLY IN THE KHUF/KBMG AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN LARGELY
ABSENT OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE KIND VICINITY. HOWEVER...AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME.
PROBABILITY OF DIRECT IMPACTS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. CB BASES 030-050.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME 240-270 DEGREES
AT 7-10 KTS BY MIDDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/RYAN





000
FXUS63 KIND 021415
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1015 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA YESTERDAY WILL BE OVER OHIO TODAY
AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS MOVE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FROM LABOR DAY AND ON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. I CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG NEXT
FEW AREAS...BUT UNLESS IT INCREASES QUICKLY WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
NEW FORECAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S.   WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION WAS OVER
WESTERN OHIO.  THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS TODAY. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IT HAS BEEN OVER AGGRESSIVE SO FAR.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
DRY FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WILL GO DRY TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES.
THE OHIO DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE MODELS
BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY.  WILL GO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AGAIN FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT +17 TO +19 DEGREES.  WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALL 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE IS NOT
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BY THAT TIME. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALL FOG HAS DISSIPATED AS OF 14Z AS EXPECTED. LITTLE ADJUSTMENT
NEEDED FOR MORNING UPDATE AS DIURNAL CU WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AREAS OF MVFR/PATCHY IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING SOME IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 021300Z OR
SO...ESPECIALLY IN THE KHUF/KBMG AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN LARGELY
ABSENT OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE KIND VICINITY. HOWEVER...AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME.
PROBABILITY OF DIRECT IMPACTS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. CB BASES 030-050.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME 240-270 DEGREES
AT 7-10 KTS BY MIDDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/RYAN




000
FXUS63 KIND 021415
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1015 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA YESTERDAY WILL BE OVER OHIO TODAY
AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS MOVE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FROM LABOR DAY AND ON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. I CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG NEXT
FEW AREAS...BUT UNLESS IT INCREASES QUICKLY WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
NEW FORECAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S.   WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION WAS OVER
WESTERN OHIO.  THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS TODAY. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IT HAS BEEN OVER AGGRESSIVE SO FAR.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
DRY FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WILL GO DRY TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES.
THE OHIO DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE MODELS
BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY.  WILL GO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AGAIN FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT +17 TO +19 DEGREES.  WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALL 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE IS NOT
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BY THAT TIME. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALL FOG HAS DISSIPATED AS OF 14Z AS EXPECTED. LITTLE ADJUSTMENT
NEEDED FOR MORNING UPDATE AS DIURNAL CU WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AREAS OF MVFR/PATCHY IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING SOME IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 021300Z OR
SO...ESPECIALLY IN THE KHUF/KBMG AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN LARGELY
ABSENT OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE KIND VICINITY. HOWEVER...AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME.
PROBABILITY OF DIRECT IMPACTS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. CB BASES 030-050.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME 240-270 DEGREES
AT 7-10 KTS BY MIDDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/RYAN





000
FXUS63 KIND 021415
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1015 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA YESTERDAY WILL BE OVER OHIO TODAY
AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS MOVE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FROM LABOR DAY AND ON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. I CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG NEXT
FEW AREAS...BUT UNLESS IT INCREASES QUICKLY WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
NEW FORECAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S.   WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION WAS OVER
WESTERN OHIO.  THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS TODAY. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IT HAS BEEN OVER AGGRESSIVE SO FAR.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
DRY FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WILL GO DRY TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES.
THE OHIO DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE MODELS
BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY.  WILL GO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AGAIN FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT +17 TO +19 DEGREES.  WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALL 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE IS NOT
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BY THAT TIME. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ALL FOG HAS DISSIPATED AS OF 14Z AS EXPECTED. LITTLE ADJUSTMENT
NEEDED FOR MORNING UPDATE AS DIURNAL CU WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AREAS OF MVFR/PATCHY IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING SOME IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 021300Z OR
SO...ESPECIALLY IN THE KHUF/KBMG AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN LARGELY
ABSENT OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE KIND VICINITY. HOWEVER...AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME.
PROBABILITY OF DIRECT IMPACTS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. CB BASES 030-050.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME 240-270 DEGREES
AT 7-10 KTS BY MIDDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/RYAN




000
FXUS63 KIND 021032
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
631 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA YESTERDAY WILL BE OVER OHIO TODAY
AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS MOVE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FROM LABOR DAY AND ON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. I CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG NEXT
FEW AREAS...BUT UNLESS IT INCREASES QUICKLY WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
NEW FORECAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S.   WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION WAS OVER
WESTERN OHIO.  THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS TODAY. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IT HAS BEEN OVER AGGRESSIVE SO FAR.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
DRY FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WILL GO DRY TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES.
THE OHIO DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE MODELS
BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY.  WILL GO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AGAIN FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT +17 TO +19 DEGREES.  WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALL 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE IS NOT
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BY THAT TIME. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 631 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AREAS OF MVFR/PATCHY IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING SOME IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 021300Z OR
SO...ESPECIALLY IN THE KHUF/KBMG AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN LARGELY
ABSENT OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE KIND VICINITY. HOWEVER...AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME.
PROBABILITY OF DIRECT IMPACTS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. CB BASES 030-050.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME 240-270 DEGREES
AT 7-10 KTS BY MIDDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS





000
FXUS63 KIND 021032
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
631 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA YESTERDAY WILL BE OVER OHIO TODAY
AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS MOVE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FROM LABOR DAY AND ON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. I CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG NEXT
FEW AREAS...BUT UNLESS IT INCREASES QUICKLY WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
NEW FORECAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S.   WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION WAS OVER
WESTERN OHIO.  THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS TODAY. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IT HAS BEEN OVER AGGRESSIVE SO FAR.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
DRY FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WILL GO DRY TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES.
THE OHIO DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE MODELS
BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY.  WILL GO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AGAIN FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT +17 TO +19 DEGREES.  WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALL 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE IS NOT
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BY THAT TIME. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 631 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AREAS OF MVFR/PATCHY IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING SOME IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 021300Z OR
SO...ESPECIALLY IN THE KHUF/KBMG AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN LARGELY
ABSENT OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE KIND VICINITY. HOWEVER...AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME.
PROBABILITY OF DIRECT IMPACTS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. CB BASES 030-050.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME 240-270 DEGREES
AT 7-10 KTS BY MIDDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 020826
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
424 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA YESTERDAY WILL BE OVER OHIO TODAY
AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS MOVE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FROM LABOR DAY AND ON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. I CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG NEXT
FEW AREAS...BUT UNLESS IT INCREASES QUICKLY WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
NEW FORECAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S.   WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION WAS OVER
WESTERN OHIO.  THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS TODAY. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IT HAS BEEN OVER AGGRESSIVE SO FAR.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
DRY FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WILL GO DRY TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES.
THE OHIO DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE MODELS
BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY.  WILL GO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AGAIN FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT +17 TO +19 DEGREES.  WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALL 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE IS NOT
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BY THAT TIME. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND RH TIME
SECTIONS. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME FOG AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY AT BMG...WHERE THE TEMPERATURE WAS APPROCHING
THE DEW POINT. THE VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES THERE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE AIRMASS.

WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU AFTER 15Z WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK/JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 020826
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
424 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA YESTERDAY WILL BE OVER OHIO TODAY
AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS MOVE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FROM LABOR DAY AND ON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. I CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG NEXT
FEW AREAS...BUT UNLESS IT INCREASES QUICKLY WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
NEW FORECAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S.   WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION WAS OVER
WESTERN OHIO.  THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS TODAY. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IT HAS BEEN OVER AGGRESSIVE SO FAR.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
DRY FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WILL GO DRY TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES.
THE OHIO DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE MODELS
BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY.  WILL GO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AGAIN FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT +17 TO +19 DEGREES.  WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALL 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE IS NOT
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BY THAT TIME. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND RH TIME
SECTIONS. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME FOG AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY AT BMG...WHERE THE TEMPERATURE WAS APPROCHING
THE DEW POINT. THE VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES THERE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE AIRMASS.

WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU AFTER 15Z WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK/JAS





000
FXUS63 KIND 020826
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
424 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA YESTERDAY WILL BE OVER OHIO TODAY
AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS MOVE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FROM LABOR DAY AND ON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. I CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG NEXT
FEW AREAS...BUT UNLESS IT INCREASES QUICKLY WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
NEW FORECAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S.   WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION WAS OVER
WESTERN OHIO.  THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS TODAY. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IT HAS BEEN OVER AGGRESSIVE SO FAR.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
DRY FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WILL GO DRY TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES.
THE OHIO DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE MODELS
BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY.  WILL GO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AGAIN FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT +17 TO +19 DEGREES.  WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALL 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE IS NOT
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BY THAT TIME. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND RH TIME
SECTIONS. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME FOG AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY AT BMG...WHERE THE TEMPERATURE WAS APPROCHING
THE DEW POINT. THE VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES THERE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE AIRMASS.

WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU AFTER 15Z WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK/JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 020826
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
424 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA YESTERDAY WILL BE OVER OHIO TODAY
AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS MOVE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FROM LABOR DAY AND ON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. I CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG NEXT
FEW AREAS...BUT UNLESS IT INCREASES QUICKLY WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
NEW FORECAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S.   WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION WAS OVER
WESTERN OHIO.  THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS TODAY. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IT HAS BEEN OVER AGGRESSIVE SO FAR.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
DRY FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WILL GO DRY TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES.
THE OHIO DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE MODELS
BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY.  WILL GO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AGAIN FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT +17 TO +19 DEGREES.  WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALL 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE IS NOT
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BY THAT TIME. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND RH TIME
SECTIONS. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME FOG AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY AT BMG...WHERE THE TEMPERATURE WAS APPROCHING
THE DEW POINT. THE VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES THERE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE AIRMASS.

WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU AFTER 15Z WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK/JAS





000
FXUS63 KIND 020752 RRA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS
HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA YESTERDAY WILL BE OVER OHIO TODAY
AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS MOVE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FROM LABOR DAY AND ON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. I CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG NEXT
FEW AREAS...BUT UNLESS IT INCREASES QUICKLY WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
NEW FORECAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S.   WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION WAS OVER
WESTERN OHIO.  THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS TODAY. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IT HAS BEEN OVER AGGRESSIVE SO FAR.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
DRY FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WILL GO DRY TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES.
THE OHIO DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE MODELS
BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY.  WILL GO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AGAIN FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT +17 TO +19 DEGREES.  WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALL 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

NSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE IS NOT
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BY THAT TIME. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND RH TIME
SECTIONS. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME FOG AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY AT BMG...WHERE THE TEMPERATURE WAS APPROCHING
THE DEW POINT. THE VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES THERE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE AIRMASS.

WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU AFTER 15Z WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 020752 RRA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS
HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA YESTERDAY WILL BE OVER OHIO TODAY
AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS MOVE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FROM LABOR DAY AND ON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. I CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG NEXT
FEW AREAS...BUT UNLESS IT INCREASES QUICKLY WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
NEW FORECAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S.   WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION WAS OVER
WESTERN OHIO.  THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS TODAY. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IT HAS BEEN OVER AGGRESSIVE SO FAR.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
DRY FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WILL GO DRY TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES.
THE OHIO DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE MODELS
BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY.  WILL GO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AGAIN FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT +17 TO +19 DEGREES.  WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALL 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

NSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE IS NOT
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BY THAT TIME. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND RH TIME
SECTIONS. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME FOG AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY AT BMG...WHERE THE TEMPERATURE WAS APPROCHING
THE DEW POINT. THE VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES THERE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE AIRMASS.

WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU AFTER 15Z WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 020433
AFDIND

ZCZC INDWRKAFD 020223
TTAA00 KIND DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1231 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATE...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS COULD
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...SO INSERTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THOSE
AREAS. AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL...EXPECT ANY FORMATION TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. SO...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND RH TIME
SECTIONS. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME FOG AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY AT BMG...WHERE THE TEMPERATURE WAS APPROCHING
THE DEW POINT. THE VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES THERE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE AIRMASS.

WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU AFTER 15Z WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 020433
AFDIND

ZCZC INDWRKAFD 020223
TTAA00 KIND DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1231 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATE...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS COULD
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...SO INSERTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THOSE
AREAS. AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL...EXPECT ANY FORMATION TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. SO...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND RH TIME
SECTIONS. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME FOG AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY AT BMG...WHERE THE TEMPERATURE WAS APPROCHING
THE DEW POINT. THE VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES THERE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE AIRMASS.

WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU AFTER 15Z WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 020433 RRA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1231 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATE...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS COULD
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...SO INSERTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THOSE
AREAS. AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL...EXPECT ANY FORMATION TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. SO...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND RH TIME
SECTIONS. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME FOG AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY AT BMG...WHERE THE TEMPERATURE WAS APPROCHING
THE DEW POINT. THE VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES THERE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE AIRMASS.

WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU AFTER 15Z WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 020433 RRA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1231 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATE...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS COULD
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...SO INSERTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THOSE
AREAS. AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL...EXPECT ANY FORMATION TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. SO...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND RH TIME
SECTIONS. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME FOG AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY AT BMG...WHERE THE TEMPERATURE WAS APPROCHING
THE DEW POINT. THE VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES THERE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE AIRMASS.

WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU AFTER 15Z WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 020215
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1015 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATE...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS COULD
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...SO INSERTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THOSE
AREAS. AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL...EXPECT ANY FORMATION TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. SO...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 615 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO BE MINIMUL AT ISSUANCE TIME AS
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 020215
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1015 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATE...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS COULD
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...SO INSERTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THOSE
AREAS. AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL...EXPECT ANY FORMATION TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. SO...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 615 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO BE MINIMUL AT ISSUANCE TIME AS
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 020213
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1013 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATE...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS COULD
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...SO INSERTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THOSE
AREAS. AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL...EXPECT ANY FORMATION TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. SO...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 615 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO BE MINIMUL AT ISSUANCE TIME AS
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 012216
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
615 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE UPPER LOW EAST INTO OHIO LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH THE MODELS FAIRLY EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS...OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
(SUCH AS THE NAM). GENERALLY WENT WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH TAKES INTO CONSIDERATION THE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS AND ATTEMPTS A BLEND.

ALSO...WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY EXISTS...MAINLY NORTH
OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR...THIS AREA HAS ALREADY BEEN A LITTLE WORKED
OVER WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AS ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM IN A FEW HOURS...THIS WILL SERVE TO
EVEN LESSEN CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT. SO AS FOR POP TONIGHT...KEPT
IN SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY AROUND AND NORTH OF I 70.

A BLEND OF MOS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND CONSIDERING PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER. FORECASTING WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 615 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO BE MINIMUL AT ISSUANCE TIME AS
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 012216
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
615 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE UPPER LOW EAST INTO OHIO LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH THE MODELS FAIRLY EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS...OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
(SUCH AS THE NAM). GENERALLY WENT WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH TAKES INTO CONSIDERATION THE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS AND ATTEMPTS A BLEND.

ALSO...WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY EXISTS...MAINLY NORTH
OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR...THIS AREA HAS ALREADY BEEN A LITTLE WORKED
OVER WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AS ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM IN A FEW HOURS...THIS WILL SERVE TO
EVEN LESSEN CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT. SO AS FOR POP TONIGHT...KEPT
IN SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY AROUND AND NORTH OF I 70.

A BLEND OF MOS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND CONSIDERING PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER. FORECASTING WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 615 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO BE MINIMUL AT ISSUANCE TIME AS
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 012216
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
615 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE UPPER LOW EAST INTO OHIO LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH THE MODELS FAIRLY EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS...OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
(SUCH AS THE NAM). GENERALLY WENT WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH TAKES INTO CONSIDERATION THE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS AND ATTEMPTS A BLEND.

ALSO...WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY EXISTS...MAINLY NORTH
OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR...THIS AREA HAS ALREADY BEEN A LITTLE WORKED
OVER WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AS ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM IN A FEW HOURS...THIS WILL SERVE TO
EVEN LESSEN CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT. SO AS FOR POP TONIGHT...KEPT
IN SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY AROUND AND NORTH OF I 70.

A BLEND OF MOS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND CONSIDERING PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER. FORECASTING WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 615 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO BE MINIMUL AT ISSUANCE TIME AS
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 012023
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
422 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE UPPER LOW EAST INTO OHIO LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH THE MODELS FAIRLY EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS...OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
(SUCH AS THE NAM). GENERALLY WENT WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH TAKES INTO CONSIDERATION THE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS AND ATTEMPTS A BLEND.

ALSO...WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY EXISTS...MAINLY NORTH
OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR...THIS AREA HAS ALREADY BEEN A LITTLE WORKED
OVER WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AS ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM IN A FEW HOURS...THIS WILL SERVE TO
EVEN LESSEN CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT. SO AS FOR POP TONIGHT...KEPT
IN SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY AROUND AND NORTH OF I 70.

A BLEND OF MOS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND CONSIDERING PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER. FORECASTING WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 012100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

DECREASED WINDS A COUPLE OF KNOTS AND SWITCHED DIRECTION TO 250
DEGREES. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DWINDLE TO THE WEST
OF THE SITES AND STARTING TO PICK UP TO THE EAST. DON/T EXPECT ANY
OF THESE TO HAPPEN DIRECTLY OVER A SITE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS. AT KIND THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A VCTS WITH THUNDER
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY THIS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. VFR CU EXPECTED AT THE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
FOG BASED ON LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE AT THE TAF SITES AND SOME
MIXING LEFT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 012023
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
422 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE UPPER LOW EAST INTO OHIO LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH THE MODELS FAIRLY EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS...OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
(SUCH AS THE NAM). GENERALLY WENT WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH TAKES INTO CONSIDERATION THE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS AND ATTEMPTS A BLEND.

ALSO...WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY EXISTS...MAINLY NORTH
OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR...THIS AREA HAS ALREADY BEEN A LITTLE WORKED
OVER WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AS ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM IN A FEW HOURS...THIS WILL SERVE TO
EVEN LESSEN CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT. SO AS FOR POP TONIGHT...KEPT
IN SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY AROUND AND NORTH OF I 70.

A BLEND OF MOS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND CONSIDERING PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER. FORECASTING WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 012100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

DECREASED WINDS A COUPLE OF KNOTS AND SWITCHED DIRECTION TO 250
DEGREES. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DWINDLE TO THE WEST
OF THE SITES AND STARTING TO PICK UP TO THE EAST. DON/T EXPECT ANY
OF THESE TO HAPPEN DIRECTLY OVER A SITE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS. AT KIND THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A VCTS WITH THUNDER
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY THIS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. VFR CU EXPECTED AT THE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
FOG BASED ON LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE AT THE TAF SITES AND SOME
MIXING LEFT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 012023
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
422 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE UPPER LOW EAST INTO OHIO LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH THE MODELS FAIRLY EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS...OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
(SUCH AS THE NAM). GENERALLY WENT WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH TAKES INTO CONSIDERATION THE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS AND ATTEMPTS A BLEND.

ALSO...WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY EXISTS...MAINLY NORTH
OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR...THIS AREA HAS ALREADY BEEN A LITTLE WORKED
OVER WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AS ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM IN A FEW HOURS...THIS WILL SERVE TO
EVEN LESSEN CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT. SO AS FOR POP TONIGHT...KEPT
IN SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY AROUND AND NORTH OF I 70.

A BLEND OF MOS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND CONSIDERING PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER. FORECASTING WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 012100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

DECREASED WINDS A COUPLE OF KNOTS AND SWITCHED DIRECTION TO 250
DEGREES. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DWINDLE TO THE WEST
OF THE SITES AND STARTING TO PICK UP TO THE EAST. DON/T EXPECT ANY
OF THESE TO HAPPEN DIRECTLY OVER A SITE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS. AT KIND THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A VCTS WITH THUNDER
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY THIS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. VFR CU EXPECTED AT THE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
FOG BASED ON LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE AT THE TAF SITES AND SOME
MIXING LEFT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 012023
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
422 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE UPPER LOW EAST INTO OHIO LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH THE MODELS FAIRLY EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS...OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
(SUCH AS THE NAM). GENERALLY WENT WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH TAKES INTO CONSIDERATION THE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS AND ATTEMPTS A BLEND.

ALSO...WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY EXISTS...MAINLY NORTH
OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR...THIS AREA HAS ALREADY BEEN A LITTLE WORKED
OVER WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AS ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM IN A FEW HOURS...THIS WILL SERVE TO
EVEN LESSEN CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT. SO AS FOR POP TONIGHT...KEPT
IN SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY AROUND AND NORTH OF I 70.

A BLEND OF MOS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND CONSIDERING PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER. FORECASTING WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 012100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

DECREASED WINDS A COUPLE OF KNOTS AND SWITCHED DIRECTION TO 250
DEGREES. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DWINDLE TO THE WEST
OF THE SITES AND STARTING TO PICK UP TO THE EAST. DON/T EXPECT ANY
OF THESE TO HAPPEN DIRECTLY OVER A SITE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS. AT KIND THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A VCTS WITH THUNDER
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY THIS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. VFR CU EXPECTED AT THE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
FOG BASED ON LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE AT THE TAF SITES AND SOME
MIXING LEFT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 011936
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
336 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE UPPER LOW EAST INTO OHIO LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH THE MODELS FAIRLY EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS...OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
(SUCH AS THE NAM). GENERALLY WENT WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH TAKES INTO CONSIDERATION THE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS AND ATTEMPTS A BLEND.

ALSO...WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY EXISTS...MAINLY NORTH
OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR...THIS AREA HAS ALREADY BEEN A LITTLE WORKED
OVER WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AS ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM IN A FEW HOURS...THIS WILL SERVE TO
EVEN LESSEN CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT. SO AS FOR POP TONIGHT...KEPT
IN SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY AROUND AND NORTH OF I 70.

A BLEND OF MOS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND CONSIDERING PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER. FORECASTING WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DWINDLE TO THE WEST
OF THE SITES AND STARTING TO PICK UP TO THE EAST. DON/T EXPECT ANY
OF THESE TO HAPPEN DIRECTLY OVER A SITE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS. AT KIND THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A VCTS WITH THUNDER
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY THIS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. VFR CU EXPECTED AT THE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
FOG BASED ON LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE AT THE TAF SITES AND SOME
MIXING LEFT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 011936
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
336 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE UPPER LOW EAST INTO OHIO LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH THE MODELS FAIRLY EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS...OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
(SUCH AS THE NAM). GENERALLY WENT WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH TAKES INTO CONSIDERATION THE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS AND ATTEMPTS A BLEND.

ALSO...WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY EXISTS...MAINLY NORTH
OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR...THIS AREA HAS ALREADY BEEN A LITTLE WORKED
OVER WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AS ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM IN A FEW HOURS...THIS WILL SERVE TO
EVEN LESSEN CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT. SO AS FOR POP TONIGHT...KEPT
IN SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY AROUND AND NORTH OF I 70.

A BLEND OF MOS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND CONSIDERING PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER. FORECASTING WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DWINDLE TO THE WEST
OF THE SITES AND STARTING TO PICK UP TO THE EAST. DON/T EXPECT ANY
OF THESE TO HAPPEN DIRECTLY OVER A SITE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS. AT KIND THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A VCTS WITH THUNDER
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY THIS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. VFR CU EXPECTED AT THE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
FOG BASED ON LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE AT THE TAF SITES AND SOME
MIXING LEFT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 011936
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
336 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE UPPER LOW EAST INTO OHIO LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH THE MODELS FAIRLY EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS...OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
(SUCH AS THE NAM). GENERALLY WENT WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH TAKES INTO CONSIDERATION THE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS AND ATTEMPTS A BLEND.

ALSO...WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY EXISTS...MAINLY NORTH
OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR...THIS AREA HAS ALREADY BEEN A LITTLE WORKED
OVER WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AS ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM IN A FEW HOURS...THIS WILL SERVE TO
EVEN LESSEN CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT. SO AS FOR POP TONIGHT...KEPT
IN SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY AROUND AND NORTH OF I 70.

A BLEND OF MOS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND CONSIDERING PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER. FORECASTING WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DWINDLE TO THE WEST
OF THE SITES AND STARTING TO PICK UP TO THE EAST. DON/T EXPECT ANY
OF THESE TO HAPPEN DIRECTLY OVER A SITE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS. AT KIND THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A VCTS WITH THUNDER
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY THIS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. VFR CU EXPECTED AT THE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
FOG BASED ON LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE AT THE TAF SITES AND SOME
MIXING LEFT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 011836
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
236 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

1330Z UPDATE...LATEST UPDATE OF THE HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THAT MUCH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL MOVE THIS FAST INTO THE AREA SINCE THE
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.

NEVERTHELESS...UPDATED POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST TO INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
ANALYSIS. MADE A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAK TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE. MOST MODELS INDICATE
MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH
INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY
THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DWINDLE TO THE WEST
OF THE SITES AND STARTING TO PICK UP TO THE EAST. DON/T EXPECT ANY
OF THESE TO HAPPEN DIRECTLY OVER A SITE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS. AT KIND THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A VCTS WITH THUNDER
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY THIS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. VFR CU EXPECTED AT THE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
FOG BASED ON LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE AT THE TAF SITES AND SOME
MIXING LEFT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 011836
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
236 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

1330Z UPDATE...LATEST UPDATE OF THE HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THAT MUCH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL MOVE THIS FAST INTO THE AREA SINCE THE
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.

NEVERTHELESS...UPDATED POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST TO INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
ANALYSIS. MADE A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAK TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE. MOST MODELS INDICATE
MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH
INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY
THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DWINDLE TO THE WEST
OF THE SITES AND STARTING TO PICK UP TO THE EAST. DON/T EXPECT ANY
OF THESE TO HAPPEN DIRECTLY OVER A SITE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS. AT KIND THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A VCTS WITH THUNDER
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY THIS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. VFR CU EXPECTED AT THE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
FOG BASED ON LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE AT THE TAF SITES AND SOME
MIXING LEFT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 011836
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
236 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

1330Z UPDATE...LATEST UPDATE OF THE HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THAT MUCH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL MOVE THIS FAST INTO THE AREA SINCE THE
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.

NEVERTHELESS...UPDATED POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST TO INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
ANALYSIS. MADE A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAK TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE. MOST MODELS INDICATE
MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH
INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY
THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DWINDLE TO THE WEST
OF THE SITES AND STARTING TO PICK UP TO THE EAST. DON/T EXPECT ANY
OF THESE TO HAPPEN DIRECTLY OVER A SITE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS. AT KIND THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A VCTS WITH THUNDER
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY THIS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. VFR CU EXPECTED AT THE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
FOG BASED ON LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE AT THE TAF SITES AND SOME
MIXING LEFT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 011836
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
236 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

1330Z UPDATE...LATEST UPDATE OF THE HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THAT MUCH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL MOVE THIS FAST INTO THE AREA SINCE THE
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.

NEVERTHELESS...UPDATED POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST TO INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
ANALYSIS. MADE A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAK TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE. MOST MODELS INDICATE
MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH
INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY
THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DWINDLE TO THE WEST
OF THE SITES AND STARTING TO PICK UP TO THE EAST. DON/T EXPECT ANY
OF THESE TO HAPPEN DIRECTLY OVER A SITE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS. AT KIND THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A VCTS WITH THUNDER
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY THIS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. VFR CU EXPECTED AT THE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
FOG BASED ON LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE AT THE TAF SITES AND SOME
MIXING LEFT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 011707
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
107 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

1330Z UPDATE...LATEST UPDATE OF THE HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THAT MUCH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL MOVE THIS FAST INTO THE AREA SINCE THE
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.

NEVERTHELESS...UPDATED POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST TO INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
ANALYSIS. MADE A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAK TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE. MOST MODELS INDICATE
MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH
INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY
THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DWINDLE TO THE WEST
OF THE SITES AND STARTING TO PICK UP TO THE EAST. DON/T EXPECT ANY
OF THESE TO HAPPEN DIRECTLY OVER A SITE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS. AT KIND THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A VCTS WITH THUNDER
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY THIS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. VFR CU EXPECTED AT THE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
FOG BASED ON LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE AT THE TAF SITES AND SOME
MIXING LEFT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 011707
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
107 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

1330Z UPDATE...LATEST UPDATE OF THE HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THAT MUCH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL MOVE THIS FAST INTO THE AREA SINCE THE
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.

NEVERTHELESS...UPDATED POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST TO INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
ANALYSIS. MADE A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAK TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE. MOST MODELS INDICATE
MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH
INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY
THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DWINDLE TO THE WEST
OF THE SITES AND STARTING TO PICK UP TO THE EAST. DON/T EXPECT ANY
OF THESE TO HAPPEN DIRECTLY OVER A SITE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS. AT KIND THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A VCTS WITH THUNDER
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY THIS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. VFR CU EXPECTED AT THE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
FOG BASED ON LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE AT THE TAF SITES AND SOME
MIXING LEFT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 011707
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
107 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

1330Z UPDATE...LATEST UPDATE OF THE HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THAT MUCH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL MOVE THIS FAST INTO THE AREA SINCE THE
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.

NEVERTHELESS...UPDATED POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST TO INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
ANALYSIS. MADE A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAK TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE. MOST MODELS INDICATE
MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH
INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY
THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DWINDLE TO THE WEST
OF THE SITES AND STARTING TO PICK UP TO THE EAST. DON/T EXPECT ANY
OF THESE TO HAPPEN DIRECTLY OVER A SITE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS. AT KIND THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A VCTS WITH THUNDER
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY THIS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. VFR CU EXPECTED AT THE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
FOG BASED ON LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE AT THE TAF SITES AND SOME
MIXING LEFT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 011427
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

1330Z UPDATE...LATEST UPDATE OF THE HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THAT MUCH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL MOVE THIS FAST INTO THE AREA SINCE THE
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.


NEVERTHELESS...UPDATED POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST TO INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
ANALYSIS. MADE A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAK TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE. MOST MODELS INDICATE
MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH
INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY
THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011500Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS IS CREEPING INTO WESTERN
INDIANA. HOWEVER WITH THESE CELLS SHOWING ONLY VERY SLOW MOTION IF
ANY DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO OCCUR OVER THE SITES. HOWEVER KLAF AND
KHUF COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY BUT NOT OVERHEAD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CB BASES THIS MORNING AROUND 050.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER 011800Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE COVERAGE/LOCATION
OF ANY CONVECTION LATER TODAY...SO WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE CELLS. CB BASES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 030.

WINDS SHOULD BE FROM 220-240 DEGREES AT 7-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS/CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 011427
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

1330Z UPDATE...LATEST UPDATE OF THE HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THAT MUCH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL MOVE THIS FAST INTO THE AREA SINCE THE
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.


NEVERTHELESS...UPDATED POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST TO INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
ANALYSIS. MADE A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAK TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE. MOST MODELS INDICATE
MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH
INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY
THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011500Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS IS CREEPING INTO WESTERN
INDIANA. HOWEVER WITH THESE CELLS SHOWING ONLY VERY SLOW MOTION IF
ANY DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO OCCUR OVER THE SITES. HOWEVER KLAF AND
KHUF COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY BUT NOT OVERHEAD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CB BASES THIS MORNING AROUND 050.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER 011800Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE COVERAGE/LOCATION
OF ANY CONVECTION LATER TODAY...SO WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE CELLS. CB BASES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 030.

WINDS SHOULD BE FROM 220-240 DEGREES AT 7-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS/CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 011427
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

1330Z UPDATE...LATEST UPDATE OF THE HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THAT MUCH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL MOVE THIS FAST INTO THE AREA SINCE THE
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.


NEVERTHELESS...UPDATED POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST TO INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
ANALYSIS. MADE A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAK TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE. MOST MODELS INDICATE
MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH
INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY
THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011500Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS IS CREEPING INTO WESTERN
INDIANA. HOWEVER WITH THESE CELLS SHOWING ONLY VERY SLOW MOTION IF
ANY DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO OCCUR OVER THE SITES. HOWEVER KLAF AND
KHUF COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY BUT NOT OVERHEAD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CB BASES THIS MORNING AROUND 050.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER 011800Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE COVERAGE/LOCATION
OF ANY CONVECTION LATER TODAY...SO WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE CELLS. CB BASES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 030.

WINDS SHOULD BE FROM 220-240 DEGREES AT 7-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS/CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 011427
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

1330Z UPDATE...LATEST UPDATE OF THE HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THAT MUCH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL MOVE THIS FAST INTO THE AREA SINCE THE
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.


NEVERTHELESS...UPDATED POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST TO INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
ANALYSIS. MADE A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAK TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE. MOST MODELS INDICATE
MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH
INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY
THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011500Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS IS CREEPING INTO WESTERN
INDIANA. HOWEVER WITH THESE CELLS SHOWING ONLY VERY SLOW MOTION IF
ANY DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO OCCUR OVER THE SITES. HOWEVER KLAF AND
KHUF COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY BUT NOT OVERHEAD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CB BASES THIS MORNING AROUND 050.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER 011800Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE COVERAGE/LOCATION
OF ANY CONVECTION LATER TODAY...SO WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE CELLS. CB BASES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 030.

WINDS SHOULD BE FROM 220-240 DEGREES AT 7-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS/CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 011354
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
954 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

1330Z UPDATE...LATEST UPDATE OF THE HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THAT MUCH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL MOVE THIS FAST INTO THE AREA SINCE THE
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.


NEVERTHELESS...UPDATED POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST TO INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
ANALYSIS. MADE A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAK TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE. MOST MODELS INDICATE
MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH
INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY
THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNEDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT. THESE CELLS
APPEAR TO BE DRIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING OVER
WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. MAY HAVE TO CARRY AT LEAST A CB SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
GROUP IN THE KHUF VICINITY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS IF CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. CB BASES THIS MORNING AROUND 050.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER 011800Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE COVERAGE/LOCATION
OF ANY CONVECTION LATER TODAY...SO WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE CELLS. CB BASES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 030.

OTHERWISE...FOG HAS BEEN HELD IN CHECK SO FAR DUE TO THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL CLOUD. MAY STILL SEE A PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE OF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICITIONS AT THE TERMINALS...BUT THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME 220-240 DEGREES
AT 7-10 KTS BY MIDDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 011354
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
954 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

1330Z UPDATE...LATEST UPDATE OF THE HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THAT MUCH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL MOVE THIS FAST INTO THE AREA SINCE THE
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.


NEVERTHELESS...UPDATED POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST TO INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
ANALYSIS. MADE A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAK TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE. MOST MODELS INDICATE
MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH
INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY
THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNEDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT. THESE CELLS
APPEAR TO BE DRIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING OVER
WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. MAY HAVE TO CARRY AT LEAST A CB SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
GROUP IN THE KHUF VICINITY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS IF CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. CB BASES THIS MORNING AROUND 050.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER 011800Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE COVERAGE/LOCATION
OF ANY CONVECTION LATER TODAY...SO WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE CELLS. CB BASES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 030.

OTHERWISE...FOG HAS BEEN HELD IN CHECK SO FAR DUE TO THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL CLOUD. MAY STILL SEE A PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE OF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICITIONS AT THE TERMINALS...BUT THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME 220-240 DEGREES
AT 7-10 KTS BY MIDDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS





000
FXUS63 KIND 011035
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
632 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THUSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE PATCHY FOG SOME AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK AND WHETHER TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

WEATHER DEPICTION AND SATELLITE INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING. SOME AREAS COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE FOG NEXT FEW HOURS.  BUT
I DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE ANY MORE THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED LAST FEW MORNINGS.

MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED BETWEEN
INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE.  MOST MODELS INDICATE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY EVIDENCE
OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNEDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT. THESE CELLS
APPEAR TO BE DRIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING OVER
WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. MAY HAVE TO CARRY AT LEAST A CB SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
GROUP IN THE KHUF VICINITY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS IF CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. CB BASES THIS MORNING AROUND 050.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER 011800Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE COVERAGE/LOCATION
OF ANY CONVECTION LATER TODAY...SO WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE CELLS. CB BASES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 030.

OTHERWISE...FOG HAS BEEN HELD IN CHECK SO FAR DUE TO THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL CLOUD. MAY STILL SEE A PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE OF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICITIONS AT THE TERMINALS...BUT THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME 220-240 DEGREES
AT 7-10 KTS BY MIDDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 011035
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
632 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THUSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE PATCHY FOG SOME AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK AND WHETHER TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

WEATHER DEPICTION AND SATELLITE INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING. SOME AREAS COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE FOG NEXT FEW HOURS.  BUT
I DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE ANY MORE THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED LAST FEW MORNINGS.

MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED BETWEEN
INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE.  MOST MODELS INDICATE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY EVIDENCE
OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNEDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT. THESE CELLS
APPEAR TO BE DRIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING OVER
WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. MAY HAVE TO CARRY AT LEAST A CB SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
GROUP IN THE KHUF VICINITY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS IF CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. CB BASES THIS MORNING AROUND 050.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER 011800Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE COVERAGE/LOCATION
OF ANY CONVECTION LATER TODAY...SO WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE CELLS. CB BASES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 030.

OTHERWISE...FOG HAS BEEN HELD IN CHECK SO FAR DUE TO THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL CLOUD. MAY STILL SEE A PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE OF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICITIONS AT THE TERMINALS...BUT THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME 220-240 DEGREES
AT 7-10 KTS BY MIDDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS





000
FXUS63 KIND 010826
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
423 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THUSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE PATCHY FOG SOME AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK AND WHETHER TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

WEATHER DEPICTION AND SATELLITE INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING. SOME AREAS COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE FOG NEXT FEW HOURS.  BUT
I DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE ANY MORE THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED LAST FEW MORNINGS.

MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED BETWEEN
INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE.  MOST MODELS INDICATE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY EVIDENCE
OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNEDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. A RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z.

CLEAR SKIES LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS AND THE OVERALL PATTERN...HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF ANY FOG AFT 13Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE
REACHED AGAIN AND SCT-BKN CU WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JP/JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 010826
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
423 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THUSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE PATCHY FOG SOME AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK AND WHETHER TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

WEATHER DEPICTION AND SATELLITE INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING. SOME AREAS COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE FOG NEXT FEW HOURS.  BUT
I DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE ANY MORE THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED LAST FEW MORNINGS.

MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED BETWEEN
INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE.  MOST MODELS INDICATE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY EVIDENCE
OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNEDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. A RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z.

CLEAR SKIES LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS AND THE OVERALL PATTERN...HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF ANY FOG AFT 13Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE
REACHED AGAIN AND SCT-BKN CU WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JP/JAS





000
FXUS63 KIND 010803
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THUSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE PATCHY FOG SOME AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK AND WHETHER TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

WEATHER DEPICTION AND SATELLITE INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING. SOME AREAS COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE FOG NEXT FEW HOURS.  BUT
I DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE ANY MORE THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED LAST FEW MORNINGS.

MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED BETWEEN
INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE.  MOST MODELS INDICATE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY EVIDENCE
OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNEDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1156 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. A RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z.

CLEAR SKIES LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS AND THE OVERALL PATTERN...HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF ANY FOG AFT 13Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE
REACHED AGAIN AND SCT-BKN CU WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 010803
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THUSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE PATCHY FOG SOME AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK AND WHETHER TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

WEATHER DEPICTION AND SATELLITE INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING. SOME AREAS COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE FOG NEXT FEW HOURS.  BUT
I DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE ANY MORE THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED LAST FEW MORNINGS.

MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED BETWEEN
INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE.  MOST MODELS INDICATE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY EVIDENCE
OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNEDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1156 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. A RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z.

CLEAR SKIES LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS AND THE OVERALL PATTERN...HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF ANY FOG AFT 13Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE
REACHED AGAIN AND SCT-BKN CU WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 010356
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1156 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 944 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

STUBBORN ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. LIGHTNING HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH THOUGH. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY SHOULD END WITH AN INCREASINGLY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE.

LOWERED CLOUD COVER MOST AREAS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS SEEN ON
SATELLITE. THIS SHOULD HELP THE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SO LEFT THE FOG
MENTION AS IS. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1156 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. A RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z.

CLEAR SKIES LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS AND THE OVERALL PATTERN...HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF ANY FOG AFT 13Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE
REACHED AGAIN AND SCT-BKN CU WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/50
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 010356
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1156 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 944 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

STUBBORN ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. LIGHTNING HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH THOUGH. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY SHOULD END WITH AN INCREASINGLY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE.

LOWERED CLOUD COVER MOST AREAS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS SEEN ON
SATELLITE. THIS SHOULD HELP THE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SO LEFT THE FOG
MENTION AS IS. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1156 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. A RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z.

CLEAR SKIES LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS AND THE OVERALL PATTERN...HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF ANY FOG AFT 13Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE
REACHED AGAIN AND SCT-BKN CU WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/50
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 010200
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1000 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 944 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

STUBBORN ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. LIGHTNING HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH THOUGH. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY SHOULD END WITH AN INCREASINGLY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE.

LOWERED CLOUD COVER MOST AREAS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS SEEN ON
SATELLITE. THIS SHOULD HELP THE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SO LEFT THE FOG
MENTION AS IS. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

DIURNAL CU HAS DISSIPATED. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS CONTINUE TO
FALL. ONGOING TAF HANDLES THIS WELL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 010000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 6 HOURS. MVFR TO IFR DIURNAL FOG
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER
14Z.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...WILL STICK
WITH A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO LESS THAN 4F TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE
IN PLACE. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND TOWARD A SIMILAR FORECAST AS
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT HUF...BMG AND
LAF.

AS HEATING AND MIXING RESUMES ON TUESDAY...A QUICK RETURN TO VFR
IS EXPECTED. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE REACH SCT
VFR LEVEL DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/50
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 010200
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1000 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 944 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

STUBBORN ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. LIGHTNING HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH THOUGH. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY SHOULD END WITH AN INCREASINGLY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE.

LOWERED CLOUD COVER MOST AREAS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS SEEN ON
SATELLITE. THIS SHOULD HELP THE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SO LEFT THE FOG
MENTION AS IS. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

DIURNAL CU HAS DISSIPATED. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS CONTINUE TO
FALL. ONGOING TAF HANDLES THIS WELL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 010000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 6 HOURS. MVFR TO IFR DIURNAL FOG
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER
14Z.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...WILL STICK
WITH A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO LESS THAN 4F TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE
IN PLACE. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND TOWARD A SIMILAR FORECAST AS
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT HUF...BMG AND
LAF.

AS HEATING AND MIXING RESUMES ON TUESDAY...A QUICK RETURN TO VFR
IS EXPECTED. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE REACH SCT
VFR LEVEL DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/50
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 010144
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
944 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 944 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

STUBBORN ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. LIGHTNING HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH THOUGH. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY SHOULD END WITH AN INCREASINGLY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE.

LOWERED CLOUD COVER MOST AREAS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS SEEN ON
SATELLITE. THIS SHOULD HELP THE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SO LEFT THE FOG
MENTION AS IS. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 6 HOURS. MVFR TO IFR DIURNAL FOG
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER
14Z.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...WILL STICK
WITH A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO LESS THAN 4F TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE
IN PLACE. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND TOWARD A SIMILAR FORECAST AS
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT HUF...BMG AND
LAF.

AS HEATING AND MIXING RESUMES ON TUESDAY...A QUICK RETURN TO VFR
IS EXPECTED. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE REACH SCT
VFR LEVEL DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/50
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 010144
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
944 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 944 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

STUBBORN ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. LIGHTNING HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH THOUGH. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY SHOULD END WITH AN INCREASINGLY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE.

LOWERED CLOUD COVER MOST AREAS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS SEEN ON
SATELLITE. THIS SHOULD HELP THE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SO LEFT THE FOG
MENTION AS IS. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 6 HOURS. MVFR TO IFR DIURNAL FOG
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER
14Z.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...WILL STICK
WITH A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO LESS THAN 4F TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE
IN PLACE. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND TOWARD A SIMILAR FORECAST AS
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT HUF...BMG AND
LAF.

AS HEATING AND MIXING RESUMES ON TUESDAY...A QUICK RETURN TO VFR
IS EXPECTED. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE REACH SCT
VFR LEVEL DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/50
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 010144
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
944 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 944 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

STUBBORN ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. LIGHTNING HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH THOUGH. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY SHOULD END WITH AN INCREASINGLY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE.

LOWERED CLOUD COVER MOST AREAS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS SEEN ON
SATELLITE. THIS SHOULD HELP THE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SO LEFT THE FOG
MENTION AS IS. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 6 HOURS. MVFR TO IFR DIURNAL FOG
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER
14Z.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...WILL STICK
WITH A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO LESS THAN 4F TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE
IN PLACE. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND TOWARD A SIMILAR FORECAST AS
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT HUF...BMG AND
LAF.

AS HEATING AND MIXING RESUMES ON TUESDAY...A QUICK RETURN TO VFR
IS EXPECTED. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE REACH SCT
VFR LEVEL DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/50
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 312305
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
705 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 6 HOURS. MVFR TO IFR DIURNAL FOG
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER
14Z.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...WILL STICK
WITH A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO LESS THAN 4F TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE
IN PLACE. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND TOWARD A SIMILAR FORECAST AS
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT HUF...BMG AND
LAF.

AS HEATING AND MIXING RESUMES ON TUESDAY...A QUICK RETURN TO VFR
IS EXPECTED. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE REACH SCT
VFR LEVEL DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 312305
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
705 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 6 HOURS. MVFR TO IFR DIURNAL FOG
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER
14Z.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...WILL STICK
WITH A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO LESS THAN 4F TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE
IN PLACE. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND TOWARD A SIMILAR FORECAST AS
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT HUF...BMG AND
LAF.

AS HEATING AND MIXING RESUMES ON TUESDAY...A QUICK RETURN TO VFR
IS EXPECTED. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE REACH SCT
VFR LEVEL DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 312034
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
434 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 312100Z IND TAF UPDATED/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DIURNAL CU
SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS HEATING IS LOST. ONGOING TAFS IN GOOD SHAPE.
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT THE SITES. WHILE A BROKEN DECK COULD BRIEFLY FORM BELOW
3000 FT THINK BASES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 3000 FT SHORTLY BASED ON
HEATING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE SITES FROM NOW THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT A SPECIFIC TIME IS LOW ENOUGH
THAT IT IS NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS WILL FORECAST FOG DEVELOPING AT THE SITES
AFTER AROUND 7-9Z AND MIXING BACK OUT BY AROUND 13Z. AT THE OUTLYING
SITES COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED
THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...CP/JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 312034
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
434 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 312100Z IND TAF UPDATED/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DIURNAL CU
SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS HEATING IS LOST. ONGOING TAFS IN GOOD SHAPE.
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT THE SITES. WHILE A BROKEN DECK COULD BRIEFLY FORM BELOW
3000 FT THINK BASES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 3000 FT SHORTLY BASED ON
HEATING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE SITES FROM NOW THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT A SPECIFIC TIME IS LOW ENOUGH
THAT IT IS NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS WILL FORECAST FOG DEVELOPING AT THE SITES
AFTER AROUND 7-9Z AND MIXING BACK OUT BY AROUND 13Z. AT THE OUTLYING
SITES COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED
THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...CP/JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 311946
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDTIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT THE SITES. WHILE A BROKEN DECK COULD BRIEFLY FORM BELOW
3000 FT THINK BASES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 3000 FT SHORTLY BASED ON
HEATING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE SITES FROM NOW THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT A SPECIFIC TIME IS LOW ENOUGH
THAT IT IS NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS WILL FORECAST FOG DEVELOPING AT THE SITES
AFTER AROUND 7-9Z AND MIXING BACK OUT BY AROUND 13Z. AT THE OUTLYING
SITES COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED
THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 311946
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDTIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT THE SITES. WHILE A BROKEN DECK COULD BRIEFLY FORM BELOW
3000 FT THINK BASES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 3000 FT SHORTLY BASED ON
HEATING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE SITES FROM NOW THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT A SPECIFIC TIME IS LOW ENOUGH
THAT IT IS NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS WILL FORECAST FOG DEVELOPING AT THE SITES
AFTER AROUND 7-9Z AND MIXING BACK OUT BY AROUND 13Z. AT THE OUTLYING
SITES COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED
THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 311946
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDTIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT THE SITES. WHILE A BROKEN DECK COULD BRIEFLY FORM BELOW
3000 FT THINK BASES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 3000 FT SHORTLY BASED ON
HEATING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE SITES FROM NOW THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT A SPECIFIC TIME IS LOW ENOUGH
THAT IT IS NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS WILL FORECAST FOG DEVELOPING AT THE SITES
AFTER AROUND 7-9Z AND MIXING BACK OUT BY AROUND 13Z. AT THE OUTLYING
SITES COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED
THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 311946
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDTIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT THE SITES. WHILE A BROKEN DECK COULD BRIEFLY FORM BELOW
3000 FT THINK BASES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 3000 FT SHORTLY BASED ON
HEATING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE SITES FROM NOW THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT A SPECIFIC TIME IS LOW ENOUGH
THAT IT IS NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS WILL FORECAST FOG DEVELOPING AT THE SITES
AFTER AROUND 7-9Z AND MIXING BACK OUT BY AROUND 13Z. AT THE OUTLYING
SITES COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED
THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 311832
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
232 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS MOST FOG HAS
BURNED OFF. MUGGY WITH TEMPS AT 1330Z IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. AREA OF SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY
AND ON THE EDGE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE. STORMS HAVE GOTTEN TO WITHIN
ABOUT A COUNTY OF THE INDIANA STATE LINE...AND HAVE PROMPTED AN
EARLIER INTRODUCTION OF ISOLATED POPS IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS
OF 14Z.

STILL ANTICIPATE GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND INTERACTS WITH AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL VORT AXIS OVER THE REGION. NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE STORMS BUT THOSE THAT DO ARE LIKELY TO SEE QUICK SOAKERS WITH
STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20MPH. COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY STRONGER CELL BUT LACK OF BL SHEAR AND FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP STORMS SUBSEVERE WITH PULSING INTENSITY. HIGHS WILL RISE
GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT THE SITES. WHILE A BROKEN DECK COULD BRIEFLY FORM BELOW
3000 FT THINK BASES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 3000 FT SHORTLY BASED ON
HEATING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE SITES FROM NOW THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT A SPECIFIC TIME IS LOW ENOUGH
THAT IT IS NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS WILL FORECAST FOG DEVELOPING AT THE SITES
AFTER AROUND 7-9Z AND MIXING BACK OUT BY AROUND 13Z. AT THE OUTLYING
SITES COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED
THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MB/CP
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 311832
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
232 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS MOST FOG HAS
BURNED OFF. MUGGY WITH TEMPS AT 1330Z IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. AREA OF SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY
AND ON THE EDGE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE. STORMS HAVE GOTTEN TO WITHIN
ABOUT A COUNTY OF THE INDIANA STATE LINE...AND HAVE PROMPTED AN
EARLIER INTRODUCTION OF ISOLATED POPS IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS
OF 14Z.

STILL ANTICIPATE GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND INTERACTS WITH AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL VORT AXIS OVER THE REGION. NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE STORMS BUT THOSE THAT DO ARE LIKELY TO SEE QUICK SOAKERS WITH
STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20MPH. COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY STRONGER CELL BUT LACK OF BL SHEAR AND FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP STORMS SUBSEVERE WITH PULSING INTENSITY. HIGHS WILL RISE
GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT THE SITES. WHILE A BROKEN DECK COULD BRIEFLY FORM BELOW
3000 FT THINK BASES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 3000 FT SHORTLY BASED ON
HEATING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE SITES FROM NOW THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT A SPECIFIC TIME IS LOW ENOUGH
THAT IT IS NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS WILL FORECAST FOG DEVELOPING AT THE SITES
AFTER AROUND 7-9Z AND MIXING BACK OUT BY AROUND 13Z. AT THE OUTLYING
SITES COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED
THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MB/CP
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 311832
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
232 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS MOST FOG HAS
BURNED OFF. MUGGY WITH TEMPS AT 1330Z IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. AREA OF SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY
AND ON THE EDGE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE. STORMS HAVE GOTTEN TO WITHIN
ABOUT A COUNTY OF THE INDIANA STATE LINE...AND HAVE PROMPTED AN
EARLIER INTRODUCTION OF ISOLATED POPS IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS
OF 14Z.

STILL ANTICIPATE GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND INTERACTS WITH AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL VORT AXIS OVER THE REGION. NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE STORMS BUT THOSE THAT DO ARE LIKELY TO SEE QUICK SOAKERS WITH
STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20MPH. COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY STRONGER CELL BUT LACK OF BL SHEAR AND FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP STORMS SUBSEVERE WITH PULSING INTENSITY. HIGHS WILL RISE
GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT THE SITES. WHILE A BROKEN DECK COULD BRIEFLY FORM BELOW
3000 FT THINK BASES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 3000 FT SHORTLY BASED ON
HEATING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE SITES FROM NOW THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT A SPECIFIC TIME IS LOW ENOUGH
THAT IT IS NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS WILL FORECAST FOG DEVELOPING AT THE SITES
AFTER AROUND 7-9Z AND MIXING BACK OUT BY AROUND 13Z. AT THE OUTLYING
SITES COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED
THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MB/CP
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 311710
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
110 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS MOST FOG HAS
BURNED OFF. MUGGY WITH TEMPS AT 1330Z IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. AREA OF SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY
AND ON THE EDGE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE. STORMS HAVE GOTTEN TO WITHIN
ABOUT A COUNTY OF THE INDIANA STATE LINE...AND HAVE PROMPTED AN
EARLIER INTRODUCTION OF ISOLATED POPS IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS
OF 14Z.

STILL ANTICIPATE GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND INTERACTS WITH AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL VORT AXIS OVER THE REGION. NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE STORMS BUT THOSE THAT DO ARE LIKELY TO SEE QUICK SOAKERS WITH
STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20MPH. COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY STRONGER CELL BUT LACK OF BL SHEAR AND FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP STORMS SUBSEVERE WITH PULSING INTENSITY. HIGHS WILL RISE
GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT THE SITES. WHILE A BROKEN DECK COULD BRIEFLY FORM BELOW
3000 FT THINK BASES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 3000 FT SHORTLY BASED ON
HEATING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE SITES FROM NOW THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT A SPECIFIC TIME IS LOW ENOUGH
THAT IT IS NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS WILL FORECAST FOG DEVELOPING AT THE SITES
AFTER AROUND 7-9Z AND MIXING BACK OUT BY AROUND 13Z. AT THE OUTLYING
SITES COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED
THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 311710
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
110 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS MOST FOG HAS
BURNED OFF. MUGGY WITH TEMPS AT 1330Z IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. AREA OF SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY
AND ON THE EDGE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE. STORMS HAVE GOTTEN TO WITHIN
ABOUT A COUNTY OF THE INDIANA STATE LINE...AND HAVE PROMPTED AN
EARLIER INTRODUCTION OF ISOLATED POPS IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS
OF 14Z.

STILL ANTICIPATE GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND INTERACTS WITH AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL VORT AXIS OVER THE REGION. NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE STORMS BUT THOSE THAT DO ARE LIKELY TO SEE QUICK SOAKERS WITH
STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20MPH. COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY STRONGER CELL BUT LACK OF BL SHEAR AND FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP STORMS SUBSEVERE WITH PULSING INTENSITY. HIGHS WILL RISE
GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT THE SITES. WHILE A BROKEN DECK COULD BRIEFLY FORM BELOW
3000 FT THINK BASES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 3000 FT SHORTLY BASED ON
HEATING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE SITES FROM NOW THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT A SPECIFIC TIME IS LOW ENOUGH
THAT IT IS NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS WILL FORECAST FOG DEVELOPING AT THE SITES
AFTER AROUND 7-9Z AND MIXING BACK OUT BY AROUND 13Z. AT THE OUTLYING
SITES COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED
THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 311421
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS MOST FOG HAS
BURNED OFF. MUGGY WITH TEMPS AT 1330Z IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. AREA OF SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY
AND ON THE EDGE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE. STORMS HAVE GOTTEN TO WITHIN
ABOUT A COUNTY OF THE INDIANA STATE LINE...AND HAVE PROMPTED AN
EARLIER INTRODUCTION OF ISOLATED POPS IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS
OF 14Z.

STILL ANTICIPATE GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND INTERACTS WITH AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL VORT AXIS OVER THE REGION. NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE STORMS BUT THOSE THAT DO ARE LIKELY TO SEE QUICK SOAKERS WITH
STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20MPH. COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY STRONGER CELL BUT LACK OF BL SHEAR AND FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP STORMS SUBSEVERE WITH PULSING INTENSITY. HIGHS WILL RISE
GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AGAIN.

SCATTERED CU WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  SOME MODELS
INDICATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW FOR ANY TIMING IN TAFS. EVEN VCTS MAY BE OVERDOING
IT A BIT AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET WITH AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 311421
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS MOST FOG HAS
BURNED OFF. MUGGY WITH TEMPS AT 1330Z IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. AREA OF SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY
AND ON THE EDGE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE. STORMS HAVE GOTTEN TO WITHIN
ABOUT A COUNTY OF THE INDIANA STATE LINE...AND HAVE PROMPTED AN
EARLIER INTRODUCTION OF ISOLATED POPS IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS
OF 14Z.

STILL ANTICIPATE GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND INTERACTS WITH AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL VORT AXIS OVER THE REGION. NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE STORMS BUT THOSE THAT DO ARE LIKELY TO SEE QUICK SOAKERS WITH
STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20MPH. COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY STRONGER CELL BUT LACK OF BL SHEAR AND FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP STORMS SUBSEVERE WITH PULSING INTENSITY. HIGHS WILL RISE
GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AGAIN.

SCATTERED CU WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  SOME MODELS
INDICATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW FOR ANY TIMING IN TAFS. EVEN VCTS MAY BE OVERDOING
IT A BIT AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET WITH AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 311421
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS MOST FOG HAS
BURNED OFF. MUGGY WITH TEMPS AT 1330Z IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. AREA OF SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY
AND ON THE EDGE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE. STORMS HAVE GOTTEN TO WITHIN
ABOUT A COUNTY OF THE INDIANA STATE LINE...AND HAVE PROMPTED AN
EARLIER INTRODUCTION OF ISOLATED POPS IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS
OF 14Z.

STILL ANTICIPATE GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND INTERACTS WITH AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL VORT AXIS OVER THE REGION. NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE STORMS BUT THOSE THAT DO ARE LIKELY TO SEE QUICK SOAKERS WITH
STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20MPH. COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY STRONGER CELL BUT LACK OF BL SHEAR AND FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP STORMS SUBSEVERE WITH PULSING INTENSITY. HIGHS WILL RISE
GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AGAIN.

SCATTERED CU WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  SOME MODELS
INDICATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW FOR ANY TIMING IN TAFS. EVEN VCTS MAY BE OVERDOING
IT A BIT AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET WITH AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 311421
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS MOST FOG HAS
BURNED OFF. MUGGY WITH TEMPS AT 1330Z IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. AREA OF SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY
AND ON THE EDGE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE. STORMS HAVE GOTTEN TO WITHIN
ABOUT A COUNTY OF THE INDIANA STATE LINE...AND HAVE PROMPTED AN
EARLIER INTRODUCTION OF ISOLATED POPS IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS
OF 14Z.

STILL ANTICIPATE GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND INTERACTS WITH AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL VORT AXIS OVER THE REGION. NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE STORMS BUT THOSE THAT DO ARE LIKELY TO SEE QUICK SOAKERS WITH
STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20MPH. COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY STRONGER CELL BUT LACK OF BL SHEAR AND FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP STORMS SUBSEVERE WITH PULSING INTENSITY. HIGHS WILL RISE
GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AGAIN.

SCATTERED CU WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  SOME MODELS
INDICATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW FOR ANY TIMING IN TAFS. EVEN VCTS MAY BE OVERDOING
IT A BIT AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET WITH AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 311345
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
945 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS MOST FOG HAS
BURNED OFF. MUGGY WITH TEMPS AT 1330Z IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. AREA OF SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY
AND ON THE EDGE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE. STORMS HAVE GOTTEN TO WITHIN
ABOUT A COUNTY OF THE INDIANA STATE LINE...AND HAVE PROMPTED AN
EARLIER INTRODUCTION OF ISOLATED POPS IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS
OF 14Z.

STILL ANTICIPATE GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND INTERACTS WITH AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL VORT AXIS OVER THE REGION. NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE STORMS BUT THOSE THAT DO ARE LIKELY TO SEE QUICK SOAKERS WITH
STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20MPH. COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY STRONGER CELL BUT LACK OF BL SHEAR AND FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP STORMS SUBSEVERE WITH PULSING INTENSITY. HIGHS WILL RISE
GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MVFR OR IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING SITES ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...VFR.

FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE SCATTERED CU WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  SOME MODELS INDICATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR ANY TIMING IN TAFS.
EVEN VCTS MAY BE OVERDOING IT A BIT AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET WITH AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH





000
FXUS63 KIND 311345
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
945 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS MOST FOG HAS
BURNED OFF. MUGGY WITH TEMPS AT 1330Z IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. AREA OF SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY
AND ON THE EDGE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE. STORMS HAVE GOTTEN TO WITHIN
ABOUT A COUNTY OF THE INDIANA STATE LINE...AND HAVE PROMPTED AN
EARLIER INTRODUCTION OF ISOLATED POPS IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS
OF 14Z.

STILL ANTICIPATE GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND INTERACTS WITH AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL VORT AXIS OVER THE REGION. NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE STORMS BUT THOSE THAT DO ARE LIKELY TO SEE QUICK SOAKERS WITH
STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20MPH. COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY STRONGER CELL BUT LACK OF BL SHEAR AND FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP STORMS SUBSEVERE WITH PULSING INTENSITY. HIGHS WILL RISE
GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MVFR OR IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING SITES ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...VFR.

FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE SCATTERED CU WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  SOME MODELS INDICATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR ANY TIMING IN TAFS.
EVEN VCTS MAY BE OVERDOING IT A BIT AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET WITH AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KIND 311101
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
700 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SOME DENSE FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA NEAR A REMNANT
FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH FOG WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR TRENDS UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME TO SEE
IF FOG NEEDS TO BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...MODEL DATA SUGGEST AN ELONGATED VORTICITY LOBE AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING
THOSE TIMES.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON
THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL BUMP UP THE GUIDANCE
A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MVFR OR IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING SITES ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...VFR.

FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE SCATTERED CU WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  SOME MODELS INDICATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR ANY TIMING IN TAFS.
EVEN VCTS MAY BE OVERDOING IT A BIT AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET WITH AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH





000
FXUS63 KIND 311101
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
700 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SOME DENSE FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA NEAR A REMNANT
FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH FOG WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR TRENDS UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME TO SEE
IF FOG NEEDS TO BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...MODEL DATA SUGGEST AN ELONGATED VORTICITY LOBE AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING
THOSE TIMES.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON
THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL BUMP UP THE GUIDANCE
A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MVFR OR IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING SITES ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...VFR.

FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE SCATTERED CU WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  SOME MODELS INDICATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR ANY TIMING IN TAFS.
EVEN VCTS MAY BE OVERDOING IT A BIT AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET WITH AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KIND 311101
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
700 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SOME DENSE FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA NEAR A REMNANT
FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH FOG WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR TRENDS UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME TO SEE
IF FOG NEEDS TO BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...MODEL DATA SUGGEST AN ELONGATED VORTICITY LOBE AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING
THOSE TIMES.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON
THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL BUMP UP THE GUIDANCE
A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MVFR OR IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING SITES ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...VFR.

FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE SCATTERED CU WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  SOME MODELS INDICATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR ANY TIMING IN TAFS.
EVEN VCTS MAY BE OVERDOING IT A BIT AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET WITH AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KIND 311101
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
700 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SOME DENSE FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA NEAR A REMNANT
FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH FOG WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR TRENDS UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME TO SEE
IF FOG NEEDS TO BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...MODEL DATA SUGGEST AN ELONGATED VORTICITY LOBE AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING
THOSE TIMES.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON
THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL BUMP UP THE GUIDANCE
A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MVFR OR IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING SITES ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...VFR.

FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE SCATTERED CU WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  SOME MODELS INDICATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR ANY TIMING IN TAFS.
EVEN VCTS MAY BE OVERDOING IT A BIT AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET WITH AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH





000
FXUS63 KIND 310828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SOME DENSE FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA NEAR A REMNANT
FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH FOG WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR TRENDS UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME TO SEE
IF FOG NEEDS TO BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...MODEL DATA SUGGEST AN ELONGATED VORTICITY LOBE AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING
THOSE TIMES.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON
THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL BUMP UP THE GUIDANCE
A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 310900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR
OVERNIGHT DUE TO FOG.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE AREA WERE 4F AND FALLING AT MANY
LOCATIONS. SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...PROVIDING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR DIURNAL FOG AS WE HAVE SEEN
THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. THUS NO REASON TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM
PERSISTENCE.

AS MIXING RESUMES AFTER SUNRISE...FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AND
SCT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST
CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S. MID LEVEL APPEAR TOO DRY FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT FOR
NOW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JP/JH





000
FXUS63 KIND 310828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SOME DENSE FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA NEAR A REMNANT
FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH FOG WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR TRENDS UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME TO SEE
IF FOG NEEDS TO BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...MODEL DATA SUGGEST AN ELONGATED VORTICITY LOBE AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING
THOSE TIMES.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON
THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL BUMP UP THE GUIDANCE
A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 310900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR
OVERNIGHT DUE TO FOG.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE AREA WERE 4F AND FALLING AT MANY
LOCATIONS. SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...PROVIDING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR DIURNAL FOG AS WE HAVE SEEN
THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. THUS NO REASON TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM
PERSISTENCE.

AS MIXING RESUMES AFTER SUNRISE...FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AND
SCT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST
CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S. MID LEVEL APPEAR TOO DRY FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT FOR
NOW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JP/JH




000
FXUS63 KIND 310738
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SOME DENSE FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA NEAR A REMNANT
FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH FOG WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR TRENDS UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME TO SEE
IF FOG NEEDS TO BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...MODEL DATA SUGGEST AN ELONGATED VORTICITY LOBE AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING
THOSE TIMES.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON
THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL BUMP UP THE GUIDANCE
A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 310600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1051 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR
OVERNIGHT DUE TO FOG.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE AREA WERE 4F AND FALLING AT MANY
LOCATIONS. SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...PROVIDING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR DIURNAL FOG AS WE HAVE SEEN
THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. THUS NO REASON TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM
PERSISTENCE.

AS MIXING RESUMES AFTER SUNRISE...FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AND
SCT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST
CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S. MID LEVEL APPEAR TOO DRY FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT FOR
NOW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 310738
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SOME DENSE FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA NEAR A REMNANT
FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH FOG WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR TRENDS UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME TO SEE
IF FOG NEEDS TO BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...MODEL DATA SUGGEST AN ELONGATED VORTICITY LOBE AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING
THOSE TIMES.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON
THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL BUMP UP THE GUIDANCE
A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 310600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1051 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR
OVERNIGHT DUE TO FOG.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE AREA WERE 4F AND FALLING AT MANY
LOCATIONS. SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...PROVIDING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR DIURNAL FOG AS WE HAVE SEEN
THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. THUS NO REASON TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM
PERSISTENCE.

AS MIXING RESUMES AFTER SUNRISE...FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AND
SCT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST
CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S. MID LEVEL APPEAR TOO DRY FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT FOR
NOW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 310652
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
252 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SOME DENSE FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA NEAR A REMNANT
FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH FOG WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR TRENDS UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME TO SEE
IF FOG NEEDS TO BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...MODEL DATA SUGGEST AN ELONGATED VORTICITY LOBE AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING
THOSE TIMES.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON
THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL BUMP UP THE GUIDANCE
A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE RECENT REGIONAL INITIALIZATION RUN LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THREE
QUARTERS OF THE UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 310600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1051 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR
OVERNIGHT DUE TO FOG.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE AREA WERE 4F AND FALLING AT MANY
LOCATIONS. SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...PROVIDING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR DIURNAL FOG AS WE HAVE SEEN
THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. THUS NO REASON TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM
PERSISTENCE.

AS MIXING RESUMES AFTER SUNRISE...FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AND
SCT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST
CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S. MID LEVEL APPEAR TOO DRY FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT FOR
NOW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 310652
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
252 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SOME DENSE FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA NEAR A REMNANT
FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH FOG WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR TRENDS UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME TO SEE
IF FOG NEEDS TO BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...MODEL DATA SUGGEST AN ELONGATED VORTICITY LOBE AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING
THOSE TIMES.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON
THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL BUMP UP THE GUIDANCE
A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE RECENT REGIONAL INITIALIZATION RUN LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THREE
QUARTERS OF THE UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 310600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1051 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR
OVERNIGHT DUE TO FOG.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE AREA WERE 4F AND FALLING AT MANY
LOCATIONS. SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...PROVIDING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR DIURNAL FOG AS WE HAVE SEEN
THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. THUS NO REASON TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM
PERSISTENCE.

AS MIXING RESUMES AFTER SUNRISE...FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AND
SCT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST
CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S. MID LEVEL APPEAR TOO DRY FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT FOR
NOW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 310652
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
252 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SOME DENSE FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA NEAR A REMNANT
FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH FOG WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR TRENDS UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME TO SEE
IF FOG NEEDS TO BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...MODEL DATA SUGGEST AN ELONGATED VORTICITY LOBE AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING
THOSE TIMES.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON
THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL BUMP UP THE GUIDANCE
A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE RECENT REGIONAL INITIALIZATION RUN LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THREE
QUARTERS OF THE UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 310600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1051 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR
OVERNIGHT DUE TO FOG.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE AREA WERE 4F AND FALLING AT MANY
LOCATIONS. SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...PROVIDING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR DIURNAL FOG AS WE HAVE SEEN
THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. THUS NO REASON TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM
PERSISTENCE.

AS MIXING RESUMES AFTER SUNRISE...FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AND
SCT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST
CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S. MID LEVEL APPEAR TOO DRY FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT FOR
NOW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 310652
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
252 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SOME DENSE FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA NEAR A REMNANT
FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH FOG WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR TRENDS UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME TO SEE
IF FOG NEEDS TO BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...MODEL DATA SUGGEST AN ELONGATED VORTICITY LOBE AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING
THOSE TIMES.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON
THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL BUMP UP THE GUIDANCE
A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE RECENT REGIONAL INITIALIZATION RUN LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THREE
QUARTERS OF THE UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 310600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1051 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR
OVERNIGHT DUE TO FOG.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE AREA WERE 4F AND FALLING AT MANY
LOCATIONS. SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...PROVIDING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR DIURNAL FOG AS WE HAVE SEEN
THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. THUS NO REASON TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM
PERSISTENCE.

AS MIXING RESUMES AFTER SUNRISE...FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AND
SCT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST
CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S. MID LEVEL APPEAR TOO DRY FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT FOR
NOW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 310356
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1156 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY THIS WEEK. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DAILY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE WEST. AFTER THAT THE HIGH
WILL MOVE IN TO THE AREA AND BRING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED
WARMTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 958 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS HOUR...WITH A LITTLE MORE
COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. WITH WEAK UPPER FORCING CONTINUING
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WOULD EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE.

HOWEVER THE FORCING WILL SHIFT SOUTH A LITTLE OVERNIGHT SO KEPT
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF REMOVING POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH HALF.

CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING SO
ADJUSTED SKY COVER AS NEEDED. SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS IS ALSO
OCCURRING SOUTH. THUS EXPANDED THE FOG MENTION TO ALL AREAS. AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN THIS EVENING WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FOG.

TWEAKED TEMPERATURES BUT MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AFTER DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT KEEPING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING COMES TO AN END WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THIS WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AS WEAK UPPER FORCING PUSHES SOUTH. WITH
THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE FROM LAST
NIGHT/THIS MORNING BROUGHT IN PATCHY FOG AFTER AROUND 6Z TO THE
NORTH OF THE SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND THIS AREA EXPANDS
FURTHER SOUTH AFTER 9Z AS WELL. WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WASHING
OUT NEARBY THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND PROVIDING VERY WEAK
CONVERGENCE WILL INCLUDE AREAS OF FOG THERE LATE DUE TO MOISTURE
POOLING.

LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...AND THIS
MATCHED THE CONSENSUS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND VORTICITY ABANDONED OVER INDIANA SPINS
OVER THE AREA. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS UNORGANIZED AND
FAIRLY WEAK. HOWEVER WHEN COMBINED WITH THE VESTIGES OF THE FRONT
THAT WASHED OUT OVER THE AREA AND SOME INSTABILITY FROM DIURNAL
HEATING EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DAILY. LACK OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND MORE ORGANIZED FORCING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
MORE COVERAGE AND THUS JUST CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ACTUALLY KEPT THINGS DRY WITH THEIR
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND IT/S SUBSIDENCE.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN CONSENSUS
NUMBERS FOR HIGHS BASED ON VERIFICATION THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND
NEAR CONSENSUS LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE RECENT REGIONAL INITIALIZATION RUN LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THREE
QUARTERS OF THE UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 310600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1051 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR
OVERNIGHT DUE TO FOG.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE AREA WERE 4F AND FALLING AT MANY
LOCATIONS. SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...PROVIDING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR DIURNAL FOG AS WE HAVE SEEN
THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. THUS NO REASON TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM
PERSISTENCE.

AS MIXING RESUMES AFTER SUNRISE...FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AND
SCT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST
CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S. MID LEVEL APPEAR TOO DRY FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT FOR
NOW.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/50
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 310356
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1156 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY THIS WEEK. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DAILY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE WEST. AFTER THAT THE HIGH
WILL MOVE IN TO THE AREA AND BRING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED
WARMTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 958 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS HOUR...WITH A LITTLE MORE
COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. WITH WEAK UPPER FORCING CONTINUING
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WOULD EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE.

HOWEVER THE FORCING WILL SHIFT SOUTH A LITTLE OVERNIGHT SO KEPT
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF REMOVING POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH HALF.

CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING SO
ADJUSTED SKY COVER AS NEEDED. SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS IS ALSO
OCCURRING SOUTH. THUS EXPANDED THE FOG MENTION TO ALL AREAS. AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN THIS EVENING WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FOG.

TWEAKED TEMPERATURES BUT MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AFTER DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT KEEPING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING COMES TO AN END WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THIS WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AS WEAK UPPER FORCING PUSHES SOUTH. WITH
THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE FROM LAST
NIGHT/THIS MORNING BROUGHT IN PATCHY FOG AFTER AROUND 6Z TO THE
NORTH OF THE SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND THIS AREA EXPANDS
FURTHER SOUTH AFTER 9Z AS WELL. WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WASHING
OUT NEARBY THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND PROVIDING VERY WEAK
CONVERGENCE WILL INCLUDE AREAS OF FOG THERE LATE DUE TO MOISTURE
POOLING.

LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...AND THIS
MATCHED THE CONSENSUS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND VORTICITY ABANDONED OVER INDIANA SPINS
OVER THE AREA. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS UNORGANIZED AND
FAIRLY WEAK. HOWEVER WHEN COMBINED WITH THE VESTIGES OF THE FRONT
THAT WASHED OUT OVER THE AREA AND SOME INSTABILITY FROM DIURNAL
HEATING EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DAILY. LACK OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND MORE ORGANIZED FORCING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
MORE COVERAGE AND THUS JUST CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ACTUALLY KEPT THINGS DRY WITH THEIR
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND IT/S SUBSIDENCE.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN CONSENSUS
NUMBERS FOR HIGHS BASED ON VERIFICATION THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND
NEAR CONSENSUS LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE RECENT REGIONAL INITIALIZATION RUN LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THREE
QUARTERS OF THE UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 310600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1051 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR
OVERNIGHT DUE TO FOG.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE AREA WERE 4F AND FALLING AT MANY
LOCATIONS. SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...PROVIDING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR DIURNAL FOG AS WE HAVE SEEN
THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. THUS NO REASON TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM
PERSISTENCE.

AS MIXING RESUMES AFTER SUNRISE...FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AND
SCT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST
CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S. MID LEVEL APPEAR TOO DRY FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT FOR
NOW.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/50
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...JP





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