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000
FXUS63 KIND 252024
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
422 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVE WITH THE HIGH. HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST...WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN...ALLOWING
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS BACK TO INDIANA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF DRY...COOL FALL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND THE
DAKOTAS...BUILDING SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...HOWEVER
THAT WAS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS COOLER NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WERE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE MILD MID 50S...HOWEVER THIS TOO
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WSR88D WAS QUIET.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN. THUS WILL AIM FOR
CLEAR SKIES. NAM SUGGESTS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT AND BY 12Z BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THUS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. GFS
AND THE NAM AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT RIDGING ALOFT IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PASSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SHOW A DRY COLUMN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE UNREACHABLE. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS LOOK IN STORE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ENDS ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 10-11C. STILL WITH NEUTRAL ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF
SUN WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE A MAVMOS/METMOS BLEND FOR SUNDAY
HIGHS. 850MB SURFACE SHOWS WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SW FLOW
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THUS WILL TREND LOWS AND HIGHS DURING THAT PERIOD BOTH WARMER THAN
THE MAVMOS/METMOS BLEND.

GFS AND NAM DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT. MANY GOOD FEATURES LOOK TO BE IN PLACE
AS THIS FRONT ARRIVES...INCLUDING AMPLE MOISTURE...AND GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIMING REMAINS A BIT OF
A CONCERN AS SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEAR 12Z...GIVE OR TAKE 3HRS.
THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHS ON BOTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY ON
TUESDAY BEFORE TAPERING THINGS OFF ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID INFILTRATION OF DRY AIR INTO THE
COLUMN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HERE WILL TREND TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS
COOLER THAN MEXMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...RAIN AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW PATTERN WILL EVOLVE AT
THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. 00Z ECMWF BRINGS AN UPPER LOW INTO
THE SOUTHEAST USA WHILE 12Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEP
LOWEST HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA.

WITH THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED DID NOT STRAY FROM THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
MADE ELSEWHERE AS MODELS ARE SIMILAR EARLY ON.

RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM EXITS. DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE RULE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND BRING CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO THE AREA MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS ON HALLOWEEN
AND SATURDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 252100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

DOES NOT APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL TAKE OUT THE CLOUD LAYER BELOW 050
ON THE UPDATE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COULD SEE A FEW CUMULUS POP UP AS SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES IN
AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S. THESE WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET
LEAVING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TONIGHT BEHIND A FRONT AND SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG FORMATION. WINDS UP TO 10-15KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN BELOW 10KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 251823
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
223 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVE WITH THE HIGH. HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST...WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN...ALLOWING
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS BACK TO INDIANA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF DRY...COOL FALL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND THE
DAKOTAS...BUILDING SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...HOWEVER
THAT WAS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS COOLER NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WERE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE MILD MID 50S...HOWEVER THIS TOO
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WSR88D WAS QUIET.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN. THUS WILL AIM FOR
CLEAR SKIES. NAM SUGGESTS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT AND BY 12Z BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THUS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. GFS
AND THE NAM AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT RIDGING ALOFT IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PASSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SHOW A DRY COLUMN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE UNREACHABLE. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS LOOK IN STORE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ENDS ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 10-11C. STILL WITH NEUTRAL ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF
SUN WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE A MAVMOS/METMOS BLEND FOR SUNDAY
HIGHS. 850MB SURFACE SHOWS WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SW FLOW
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THUS WILL TREND LOWS AND HIGHS DURING THAT PERIOD BOTH WARMER THAN
THE MAVMOS/METMOS BLEND.

GFS AND NAM DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT. MANY GOOD FEATURES LOOK TO BE IN PLACE
AS THIS FRONT ARRIVES...INCLUDING AMPLE MOISTURE...AND GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIMING REMAINS A BIT OF
A CONCERN AS SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEAR 12Z...GIVE OR TAKE 3HRS.
THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHS ON BOTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY ON
TUESDAY BEFORE TAPERING THINGS OFF ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID INFILTRATION OF DRY AIR INTO THE
COLUMN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HERE WILL TREND TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS
COOLER THAN MEXMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...RAIN AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW PATTERN WILL EVOLVE AT
THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. 00Z ECMWF BRINGS AN UPPER LOW INTO
THE SOUTHEAST USA WHILE 12Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEP
LOWEST HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA.

WITH THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED DID NOT STRAY FROM THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
MADE ELSEWHERE AS MODELS ARE SIMILAR EARLY ON.

RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM EXITS. DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE RULE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND BRING CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO THE AREA MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS ON HALLOWEEN
AND SATURDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COULD SEE A FEW CUMULUS POP UP AS SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES IN
AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S. THESE WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET
LEAVING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TONIGHT BEHIND A FRONT AND SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG FORMATION. WINDS UP TO 10-15KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN BELOW 10KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 251823
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
223 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVE WITH THE HIGH. HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST...WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN...ALLOWING
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS BACK TO INDIANA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF DRY...COOL FALL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND THE
DAKOTAS...BUILDING SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...HOWEVER
THAT WAS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS COOLER NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WERE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE MILD MID 50S...HOWEVER THIS TOO
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WSR88D WAS QUIET.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN. THUS WILL AIM FOR
CLEAR SKIES. NAM SUGGESTS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT AND BY 12Z BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THUS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. GFS
AND THE NAM AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT RIDGING ALOFT IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PASSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SHOW A DRY COLUMN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE UNREACHABLE. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS LOOK IN STORE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ENDS ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 10-11C. STILL WITH NEUTRAL ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF
SUN WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE A MAVMOS/METMOS BLEND FOR SUNDAY
HIGHS. 850MB SURFACE SHOWS WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SW FLOW
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THUS WILL TREND LOWS AND HIGHS DURING THAT PERIOD BOTH WARMER THAN
THE MAVMOS/METMOS BLEND.

GFS AND NAM DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT. MANY GOOD FEATURES LOOK TO BE IN PLACE
AS THIS FRONT ARRIVES...INCLUDING AMPLE MOISTURE...AND GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIMING REMAINS A BIT OF
A CONCERN AS SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEAR 12Z...GIVE OR TAKE 3HRS.
THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHS ON BOTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY ON
TUESDAY BEFORE TAPERING THINGS OFF ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID INFILTRATION OF DRY AIR INTO THE
COLUMN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HERE WILL TREND TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS
COOLER THAN MEXMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...RAIN AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW PATTERN WILL EVOLVE AT
THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. 00Z ECMWF BRINGS AN UPPER LOW INTO
THE SOUTHEAST USA WHILE 12Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEP
LOWEST HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA.

WITH THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED DID NOT STRAY FROM THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
MADE ELSEWHERE AS MODELS ARE SIMILAR EARLY ON.

RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM EXITS. DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE RULE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND BRING CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO THE AREA MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS ON HALLOWEEN
AND SATURDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COULD SEE A FEW CUMULUS POP UP AS SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES IN
AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S. THESE WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET
LEAVING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TONIGHT BEHIND A FRONT AND SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG FORMATION. WINDS UP TO 10-15KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN BELOW 10KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 251758
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
158 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVE WITH THE HIGH. HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST...WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN...ALLOWING
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS BACK TO INDIANA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF DRY...COOL FALL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND THE
DAKOTAS...BUILDING SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...HOWEVER
THAT WAS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS COOLER NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WERE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE MILD MID 50S...HOWEVER THIS TOO
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WSR88D WAS QUIET.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN. THUS WILL AIM FOR
CLEAR SKIES. NAM SUGGESTS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT AND BY 12Z BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THUS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. GFS
AND THE NAM AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT RIDGING ALOFT IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PASSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SHOW A DRY COLUMN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE UNREACHABLE. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS LOOK IN STORE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ENDS ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 10-11C. STILL WITH NEUTRAL ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF
SUN WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE A MAVMOS/METMOS BLEND FOR SUNDAY
HIGHS. 850MB SURFACE SHOWS WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SW FLOW
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THUS WILL TREND LOWS AND HIGHS DURING THAT PERIOD BOTH WARMER THAN
THE MAVMOS/METMOS BLEND.

GFS AND NAM DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT. MANY GOOD FEATURES LOOK TO BE IN PLACE
AS THIS FRONT ARRIVES...INCLUDING AMPLE MOISTURE...AND GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIMING REMAINS A BIT OF
A CONCERN AS SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEAR 12Z...GIVE OR TAKE 3HRS.
THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHS ON BOTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY ON
TUESDAY BEFORE TAPERING THINGS OFF ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID INFILTRATION OF DRY AIR INTO THE
COLUMN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HERE WILL TREND TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS
COOLER THAN MEXMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...RAIN AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO CONTINUE LIKELY POPS. COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WAS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES START
OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION
GENERALLY WORKED WELL. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.

&&

AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COULD SEE A FEW CUMULUS POP UP AS SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES IN
AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S. THESE WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET
LEAVING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TONIGHT BEHIND A FRONT AND SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG FORMATION. WINDS UP TO 10-15KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN BELOW 10KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 251758
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
158 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVE WITH THE HIGH. HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST...WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN...ALLOWING
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS BACK TO INDIANA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF DRY...COOL FALL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND THE
DAKOTAS...BUILDING SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...HOWEVER
THAT WAS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS COOLER NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WERE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE MILD MID 50S...HOWEVER THIS TOO
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WSR88D WAS QUIET.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN. THUS WILL AIM FOR
CLEAR SKIES. NAM SUGGESTS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT AND BY 12Z BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THUS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. GFS
AND THE NAM AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT RIDGING ALOFT IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PASSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SHOW A DRY COLUMN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE UNREACHABLE. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS LOOK IN STORE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ENDS ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 10-11C. STILL WITH NEUTRAL ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF
SUN WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE A MAVMOS/METMOS BLEND FOR SUNDAY
HIGHS. 850MB SURFACE SHOWS WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SW FLOW
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THUS WILL TREND LOWS AND HIGHS DURING THAT PERIOD BOTH WARMER THAN
THE MAVMOS/METMOS BLEND.

GFS AND NAM DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT. MANY GOOD FEATURES LOOK TO BE IN PLACE
AS THIS FRONT ARRIVES...INCLUDING AMPLE MOISTURE...AND GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIMING REMAINS A BIT OF
A CONCERN AS SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEAR 12Z...GIVE OR TAKE 3HRS.
THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHS ON BOTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY ON
TUESDAY BEFORE TAPERING THINGS OFF ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID INFILTRATION OF DRY AIR INTO THE
COLUMN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HERE WILL TREND TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS
COOLER THAN MEXMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...RAIN AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO CONTINUE LIKELY POPS. COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WAS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES START
OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION
GENERALLY WORKED WELL. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.

&&

AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COULD SEE A FEW CUMULUS POP UP AS SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES IN
AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S. THESE WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET
LEAVING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TONIGHT BEHIND A FRONT AND SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG FORMATION. WINDS UP TO 10-15KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN BELOW 10KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...50

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000
FXUS63 KIND 251654
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1254 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT BEYOND SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS
AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES NEXT WEEK...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS...AND COOLER CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 927 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS OVER
WESTERN INDIANA POISED TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WAS FOUND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. SATELLITE SHOWED A
CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. PATCHY FOG WAS
FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH OVER ILLINOIS.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE AND MIXING RESUMES THIS
AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. GIVEN OUR
850MB...ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SHORT
TERM...THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA AND WILL HAVE TO CARRY AT
LEAST SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SUGGEST MOS BLEND OR JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE IS BETTER ON MAX TEMPS WHILE AN OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS BETTER ON MINS. MAY SEE THE 80 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO CONTINUE LIKELY POPS. COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WAS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES START
OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION
GENERALLY WORKED WELL. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COULD SEE A FEW CUMULUS POP UP AS SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES IN
AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S. THESE WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET
LEAVING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TONIGHT BEHIND A FRONT AND SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG FORMATION. WINDS UP TO 10-15KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN BELOW 10KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...50

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000
FXUS63 KIND 251654
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1254 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT BEYOND SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS
AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES NEXT WEEK...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS...AND COOLER CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 927 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS OVER
WESTERN INDIANA POISED TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WAS FOUND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. SATELLITE SHOWED A
CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. PATCHY FOG WAS
FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH OVER ILLINOIS.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE AND MIXING RESUMES THIS
AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. GIVEN OUR
850MB...ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SHORT
TERM...THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA AND WILL HAVE TO CARRY AT
LEAST SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SUGGEST MOS BLEND OR JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE IS BETTER ON MAX TEMPS WHILE AN OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS BETTER ON MINS. MAY SEE THE 80 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO CONTINUE LIKELY POPS. COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WAS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES START
OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION
GENERALLY WORKED WELL. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COULD SEE A FEW CUMULUS POP UP AS SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES IN
AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S. THESE WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET
LEAVING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TONIGHT BEHIND A FRONT AND SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG FORMATION. WINDS UP TO 10-15KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN BELOW 10KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...50

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000
FXUS63 KIND 251433
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1033 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT BEYOND SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS
AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES NEXT WEEK...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS...AND COOLER CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 927 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS OVER
WESTERN INDIANA POISED TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WAS FOUND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. SATELLITE SHOWED A
CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. PATCHY FOG WAS
FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH OVER ILLINOIS.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE AND MIXING RESUMES THIS
AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. GIVEN OUR
850MB...ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SHORT
TERM...THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA AND WILL HAVE TO CARRY AT
LEAST SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SUGGEST MOS BLEND OR JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE IS BETTER ON MAX TEMPS WHILE AN OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS BETTER ON MINS. MAY SEE THE 80 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO CONTINUE LIKELY POPS. COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WAS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES START
OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION
GENERALLY WORKED WELL. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS HAS MOVED SOUTH OF KIND...BUT AN AREA OF STRATUS
ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA IS TRYING TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS LOOK TO IMPACT KLAF...BUT MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN IF IT OR ITS REMNANTS WILL REACH KIND.

IF IT DOES REACH KIND...IT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 18Z. FOR NOW
WILL JUST KEEP A LOWER SCATTERED LAYER AT KIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ASIDE FROM SOME BRIEF MFVR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR AT ALL SITES AFTER 15Z IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD REACH DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM 12Z-18Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO UP TO 11 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF/50

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000
FXUS63 KIND 251338
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
938 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT BEYOND SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS
AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES NEXT WEEK...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS...AND COOLER CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 927 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS OVER
WESTERN INDIANA POISED TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WAS FOUND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. SATELLITE SHOWED A
CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. PATCHY FOG WAS
FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH OVER ILLINOIS.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE AND MIXING RESUMES THIS
AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. GIVEN OUR
850MB...ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SHORT
TERM...THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA AND WILL HAVE TO CARRY AT
LEAST SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SUGGEST MOS BLEND OR JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE IS BETTER ON MAX TEMPS WHILE AN OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS BETTER ON MINS. MAY SEE THE 80 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO CONTINUE LIKELY POPS. COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WAS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES START
OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION
GENERALLY WORKED WELL. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ASIDE FROM SOME BRIEF MFVR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR AT ALL SITES AFTER 15Z IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD REACH DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM 12Z-18Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO UP TO 11 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF

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000
FXUS63 KIND 251030
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT BEYOND SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS
AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES NEXT WEEK...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS...AND COOLER CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VERY LIGHT ECHOES NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE ARE LIKELY
TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...AND THUS WILL CARRY NO MENTION
OF THEM IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE SPRINKLES
MENTION ALREADY IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT...AS MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM SUCH WEAK ECHOES IS
VERY UNLIKELY BUT A FEW DROPS SHOULD FALL HERE AND THERE.

CLOUD COVER FROM THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...BUT CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON POST
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES SUGGEST CONSENSUS BLEND
IS REASONABLE ON MAX TEMPS...WHICH RESULTS IN A FORECAST OF 70 TO
75 ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SHORT
TERM...THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA AND WILL HAVE TO CARRY AT
LEAST SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SUGGEST MOS BLEND OR JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE IS BETTER ON MAX TEMPS WHILE AN OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS BETTER ON MINS. MAY SEE THE 80 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO CONTINUE LIKELY POPS. COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WAS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES START
OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION
GENERALLY WORKED WELL. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ASIDE FROM SOME BRIEF MFVR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR AT ALL SITES AFTER 15Z IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD REACH DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM 12Z-18Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO UP TO 11 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 251030
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT BEYOND SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS
AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES NEXT WEEK...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS...AND COOLER CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VERY LIGHT ECHOES NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE ARE LIKELY
TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...AND THUS WILL CARRY NO MENTION
OF THEM IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE SPRINKLES
MENTION ALREADY IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT...AS MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM SUCH WEAK ECHOES IS
VERY UNLIKELY BUT A FEW DROPS SHOULD FALL HERE AND THERE.

CLOUD COVER FROM THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...BUT CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON POST
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES SUGGEST CONSENSUS BLEND
IS REASONABLE ON MAX TEMPS...WHICH RESULTS IN A FORECAST OF 70 TO
75 ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SHORT
TERM...THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA AND WILL HAVE TO CARRY AT
LEAST SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SUGGEST MOS BLEND OR JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE IS BETTER ON MAX TEMPS WHILE AN OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS BETTER ON MINS. MAY SEE THE 80 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO CONTINUE LIKELY POPS. COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WAS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES START
OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION
GENERALLY WORKED WELL. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ASIDE FROM SOME BRIEF MFVR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR AT ALL SITES AFTER 15Z IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD REACH DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM 12Z-18Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO UP TO 11 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 250827
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
427 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT BEYOND SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS
AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES NEXT WEEK...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS...AND COOLER CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VERY LIGHT ECHOES NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE ARE LIKELY
TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...AND THUS WILL CARRY NO MENTION
OF THEM IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE SPRINKLES
MENTION ALREADY IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT...AS MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM SUCH WEAK ECHOES IS
VERY UNLIKELY BUT A FEW DROPS SHOULD FALL HERE AND THERE.

CLOUD COVER FROM THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...BUT CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON POST
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES SUGGEST CONSENSUS BLEND
IS REASONABLE ON MAX TEMPS...WHICH RESULTS IN A FORECAST OF 70 TO
75 ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SHORT
TERM...THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA AND WILL HAVE TO CARRY AT
LEAST SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SUGGEST MOS BLEND OR JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE IS BETTER ON MAX TEMPS WHILE AN OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS BETTER ON MINS. MAY SEE THE 80 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO CONTINUE LIKELY POPS. COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WAS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES START
OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION
GENERALLY WORKED WELL. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

0825Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE IN STRATUS
AND OR FOG OVERNIGHT AFTER 07Z AT LAF AND HUF AND 09Z AT IND AND
BMG. CIRRUS AND AC MAY KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING IFR OR WORSE.
WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWER...BUT
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO MENTION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER
15Z IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD REACH DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM 12Z-18Z. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST
TO UP TO 11 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF/KOCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 250750
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT BEYOND SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS
AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES NEXT WEEK...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS...AND COOLER CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VERY LIGHT ECHOES NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE ARE LIKELY
TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...AND THUS WILL CARRY NO MENTION
OF THEM IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE SPRINKLES
MENTION ALREADY IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT...AS MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM SUCH WEAK ECHOES IS
VERY UNLIKELY BUT A FEW DROPS SHOULD FALL HERE AND THERE.

CLOUD COVER FROM THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...BUT CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON POST
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES SUGGEST CONSENSUS BLEND
IS REASONABLE ON MAX TEMPS...WHICH RESULTS IN A FORECAST OF 70 TO
75 ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SHORT
TERM...THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA AND WILL HAVE TO CARRY AT
LEAST SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SUGGEST MOS BLEND OR JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE IS BETTER ON MAX TEMPS WHILE AN OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS BETTER ON MINS. MAY SEE THE 80 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO CONTINUE LIKELY POPS. COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WAS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES START
OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION
GENERALLY WORKED WELL. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE IN STRATUS
AND OR FOG OVERNIGHT AFTER 07Z AT LAF AND HUF AND 09Z AT IND AND
BMG. CIRRUS AND AC MAY KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING IFR OR WORSE.
WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWER...BUT
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO MENTION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER
15Z IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD REACH DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM 12Z-18Z. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST
TO UP TO 11 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...KOCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 250342
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1142 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES...OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIST
INTO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 250500Z WITHIN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION
ZONE. A FEW RADAR ECHOES BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

APPEARS LOWER CLOUD COVER IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM...SO
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE CLOUD COVER LATER
TONIGHT.

LOWS STILL LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES THERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF ANOTHER
UPPER SYSTEM.

MOISTURE IS AGAIN LIMITED. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE ONE
THAT MOVED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND BROUGHT MEASURABLE RAIN...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ADDING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN TO THE FORECAST. HI
RES RAPID REFRESH IS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING IN AFTER 06Z THOUGH. NAM
HINTS AT THIS AS WELL.

THUS WILL REINTRODUCE SPRINKLES TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WILL START AT 06Z.

FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES AS
THESE REFLECT EXPECTED TRENDS INCLUDING TIMING OF THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES AND ON ANY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
EAST WITH THE EXITING UPPER SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
ADD TO THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AND
ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID AFTERNOON.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
BUT COLD ADVECTION REALLY DOES NOT KICK IN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
THUS WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN. WENT CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH ENDS UP CLOSE TO MOS MOST AREAS.

MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION
KICKS IN. NOT ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE FOR ANY RAIN WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY THANKS
TO SOME SUN AND THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.  AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY...DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.  TEMPS WILL
START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.  THEY WILL
DRASTICALLY PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
THOUGH...HIGHS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1141 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE IN STRATUS
AND OR FOG OVERNIGHT AFTER 07Z AT LAF AND HUF AND 09Z AT IND AND
BMG. CIRRUS AND AC MAY KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING IFR OR WORSE.
WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWER...BUT
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO MENTION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER
15Z IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD REACH DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM 12Z-18Z. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST
TO UP TO 11 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/JAS
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...KOCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 250342
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1142 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES...OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIST
INTO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 250500Z WITHIN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION
ZONE. A FEW RADAR ECHOES BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

APPEARS LOWER CLOUD COVER IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM...SO
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE CLOUD COVER LATER
TONIGHT.

LOWS STILL LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES THERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF ANOTHER
UPPER SYSTEM.

MOISTURE IS AGAIN LIMITED. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE ONE
THAT MOVED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND BROUGHT MEASURABLE RAIN...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ADDING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN TO THE FORECAST. HI
RES RAPID REFRESH IS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING IN AFTER 06Z THOUGH. NAM
HINTS AT THIS AS WELL.

THUS WILL REINTRODUCE SPRINKLES TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WILL START AT 06Z.

FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES AS
THESE REFLECT EXPECTED TRENDS INCLUDING TIMING OF THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES AND ON ANY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
EAST WITH THE EXITING UPPER SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
ADD TO THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AND
ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID AFTERNOON.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
BUT COLD ADVECTION REALLY DOES NOT KICK IN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
THUS WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN. WENT CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH ENDS UP CLOSE TO MOS MOST AREAS.

MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION
KICKS IN. NOT ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE FOR ANY RAIN WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY THANKS
TO SOME SUN AND THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.  AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY...DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.  TEMPS WILL
START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.  THEY WILL
DRASTICALLY PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
THOUGH...HIGHS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1141 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE IN STRATUS
AND OR FOG OVERNIGHT AFTER 07Z AT LAF AND HUF AND 09Z AT IND AND
BMG. CIRRUS AND AC MAY KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING IFR OR WORSE.
WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWER...BUT
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO MENTION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER
15Z IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD REACH DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM 12Z-18Z. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST
TO UP TO 11 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/JAS
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...KOCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 250220
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES...OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIST
INTO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 250500Z WITHIN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION
ZONE. A FEW RADAR ECHOES BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

APPEARS LOWER CLOUD COVER IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM...SO
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE CLOUD COVER LATER
TONIGHT.

LOWS STILL LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES THERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF ANOTHER
UPPER SYSTEM.

MOISTURE IS AGAIN LIMITED. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE ONE
THAT MOVED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND BROUGHT MEASURABLE RAIN...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ADDING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN TO THE FORECAST. HI
RES RAPID REFRESH IS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING IN AFTER 06Z THOUGH. NAM
HINTS AT THIS AS WELL.

THUS WILL REINTRODUCE SPRINKLES TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WILL START AT 06Z.

FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES AS
THESE REFLECT EXPECTED TRENDS INCLUDING TIMING OF THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES AND ON ANY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
EAST WITH THE EXITING UPPER SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
ADD TO THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AND
ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID AFTERNOON.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
BUT COLD ADVECTION REALLY DOES NOT KICK IN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
THUS WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN. WENT CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH ENDS UP CLOSE TO MOS MOST AREAS.

MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION
KICKS IN. NOT ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE FOR ANY RAIN WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY THANKS
TO SOME SUN AND THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.  AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY...DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.  TEMPS WILL
START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.  THEY WILL
DRASTICALLY PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
THOUGH...HIGHS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/0300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE IN STRATUS
AND PERHAPS FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME VERY LIGHT TO CALM.
HOWEVER...CIRRUS AND AC MAY HINDER THIS SCENARIO TO A DEGREE. SHOULD
SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO UP TO 11 KNOTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/JAS
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS




















000
FXUS63 KIND 250136
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
934 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES...OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIST
INTO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 250500Z WITHIN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION
ZONE. A FEW RADAR ECHOES BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

APPEARS LOWER CLOUD COVER IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM...SO
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE CLOUD COVER LATER
TONIGHT.

LOWS STILL LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES THERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF ANOTHER
UPPER SYSTEM.

MOISTURE IS AGAIN LIMITED. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE ONE
THAT MOVED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND BROUGHT MEASURABLE RAIN...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ADDING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN TO THE FORECAST. HI
RES RAPID REFRESH IS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING IN AFTER 06Z THOUGH. NAM
HINTS AT THIS AS WELL.

THUS WILL REINTRODUCE SPRINKLES TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WILL START AT 06Z.

FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES AS
THESE REFLECT EXPECTED TRENDS INCLUDING TIMING OF THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES AND ON ANY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
EAST WITH THE EXITING UPPER SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
ADD TO THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AND
ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID AFTERNOON.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
BUT COLD ADVECTION REALLY DOES NOT KICK IN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
THUS WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN. WENT CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH ENDS UP CLOSE TO MOS MOST AREAS.

MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION
KICKS IN. NOT ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE FOR ANY RAIN WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY THANKS
TO SOME SUN AND THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.  AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY...DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.  TEMPS WILL
START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.  THEY WILL
DRASTICALLY PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
THOUGH...HIGHS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 651 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE IN STRATUS
AND PERHAPS FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME VERY LIGHT TO CALM.
HOWEVER...CIRRUS AND AC MAY HINDER THIS SCENARIO TO A DEGREE. SHOULD
SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO UP TO 11 KNOTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/JAS
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 242251
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
651 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES...OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIST
INTO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF ANOTHER
UPPER SYSTEM.

MOISTURE IS AGAIN LIMITED. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE ONE
THAT MOVED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND BROUGHT MEASURABLE RAIN...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ADDING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN TO THE FORECAST. HI
RES RAPID REFRESH IS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING IN AFTER 06Z THOUGH. NAM
HINTS AT THIS AS WELL.

THUS WILL REINTRODUCE SPRINKLES TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WILL START AT 06Z.

FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES AS
THESE REFLECT EXPECTED TRENDS INCLUDING TIMING OF THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES AND ON ANY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
EAST WITH THE EXITING UPPER SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
ADD TO THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AND
ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID AFTERNOON.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
BUT COLD ADVECTION REALLY DOES NOT KICK IN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
THUS WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN. WENT CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH ENDS UP CLOSE TO MOS MOST AREAS.

MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION
KICKS IN. NOT ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE FOR ANY RAIN WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY THANKS
TO SOME SUN AND THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.  AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY...DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.  TEMPS WILL
START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.  THEY WILL
DRASTICALLY PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
THOUGH...HIGHS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 651 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE IN STRATUS
AND PERHAPS FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME VERY LIGHT TO CALM.
HOWEVER...CIRRUS AND AC MAY HINDER THIS SCENARIO TO A DEGREE. SHOULD
SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO UP TO 11 KNOTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 242034
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
434 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES...OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIST
INTO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF ANOTHER
UPPER SYSTEM.

MOISTURE IS AGAIN LIMITED. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE ONE
THAT MOVED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND BROUGHT MEASURABLE RAIN...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ADDING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN TO THE FORECAST. HI
RES RAPID REFRESH IS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING IN AFTER 06Z THOUGH. NAM
HINTS AT THIS AS WELL.

THUS WILL REINTRODUCE SPRINKLES TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WILL START AT 06Z.

FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES AS
THESE REFLECT EXPECTED TRENDS INCLUDING TIMING OF THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES AND ON ANY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
EAST WITH THE EXITING UPPER SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
ADD TO THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AND
ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID AFTERNOON.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
BUT COLD ADVECTION REALLY DOES NOT KICK IN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
THUS WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN. WENT CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH ENDS UP CLOSE TO MOS MOST AREAS.

MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION
KICKS IN. NOT ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE FOR ANY RAIN WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY THANKS
TO SOME SUN AND THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.  AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY...DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.  TEMPS WILL
START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.  THEY WILL
DRASTICALLY PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
THOUGH...HIGHS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/2100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD DESPITE
SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD
FRONT. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG /MVFR
CONDITIONS/ IN OUTLYING AREAS LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AND LIGHT TONIGHT. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 9 TO 11 KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 241857
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM...AND
LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES...OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIST
INTO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF ANOTHER
UPPER SYSTEM.

MOISTURE IS AGAIN LIMITED. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE ONE
THAT MOVED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND BROUGHT MEASURABLE RAIN...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ADDING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN TO THE FORECAST. HI
RES RAPID REFRESH IS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING IN AFTER 06Z THOUGH. NAM
HINTS AT THIS AS WELL.

THUS WILL REINTRODUCE SPRINKLES TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WILL START AT 06Z.

FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES AS
THESE REFLECT EXPECTED TRENDS INCLUDING TIMING OF THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES AND ON ANY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
EAST WITH THE EXITING UPPER SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
ADD TO THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AND
ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID AFTERNOON.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
BUT COLD ADVECTION REALLY DOES NOT KICK IN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
THUS WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN. WENT CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH ENDS UP CLOSE TO MOS MOST AREAS.

MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION
KICKS IN. NOT ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE FOR ANY RAIN WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY THANKS
TO SOME SUN AND THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.  AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY...DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.  TEMPS WILL
START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.  THEY WILL
DRASTICALLY PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
THOUGH...HIGHS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1243 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD DESPITE
SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD
FRONT. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG /MVFR
CONDITIONS/ IN OUTLYING AREAS LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AND LIGHT TONIGHT. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 9 TO 11 KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 241701
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
101 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH THE AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST...A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WHILE
THESE FEATURES MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES...THEIR MORE
LIKELY IMPACTS ARE MERELY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL BE NEARLY IDEAL AS FAR AS AUTUMN WEEKENDS GO IN CENTRAL
INDIANA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY REASSERT CONTROL LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

RAIN IS STILL REACHING THE GROUND FROM THE SLOW MOVING RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY. THUS
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...EXPANDING THEM
SOUTHWEST PER RADAR.

RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH SOME LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
ATMOSPHERE IS EVEN DRIER. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE UPPER SYSTEM.

LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR NOW BUT MAY HAVE TO CHANGE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN BREAKS THROUGH LATER ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
IN THE FORM OF A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST AS
ACCOMPANIED FORCING IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER THAN THIS MORNINGS
WAVE WHICH HAS ONLY THUS FAR MANAGED TO PRODUCE A VERY WEAK LINE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCE UPON DEPARTURE OF THIS TROUGH
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BUMPED CONSENSUS NUMBERS UP SLIGHTLY
AS THIS COMPARES MORE FAVORABLY TO UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND THICKNESS
PROGS. MID AUTUMN WEEKENDS ARE RARELY MORE IDEAL THAN THIS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ON TUESDAY. COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD
THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION GENERALLY WORKED WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1243 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD DESPITE
SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD
FRONT. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG /MVFR
CONDITIONS/ IN OUTLYING AREAS LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AND LIGHT TONIGHT. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 9 TO 11 KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&


$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 241414
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1014 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH THE AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST...A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WHILE
THESE FEATURES MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES...THEIR MORE
LIKELY IMPACTS ARE MERELY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL BE NEARLY IDEAL AS FAR AS AUTUMN WEEKENDS GO IN CENTRAL
INDIANA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY REASSERT CONTROL LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

RAIN IS STILL REACHING THE GROUND FROM THE SLOW MOVING RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY. THUS
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...EXPANDING THEM
SOUTHWEST PER RADAR.

RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH SOME LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
ATMOSPHERE IS EVEN DRIER. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE UPPER SYSTEM.

LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR NOW BUT MAY HAVE TO CHANGE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN BREAKS THROUGH LATER ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
IN THE FORM OF A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST AS
ACCOMPANIED FORCING IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER THAN THIS MORNINGS
WAVE WHICH HAS ONLY THUS FAR MANAGED TO PRODUCE A VERY WEAK LINE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCE UPON DEPARTURE OF THIS TROUGH
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BUMPED CONSENSUS NUMBERS UP SLIGHTLY
AS THIS COMPARES MORE FAVORABLY TO UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND THICKNESS
PROGS. MID AUTUMN WEEKENDS ARE RARELY MORE IDEAL THAN THIS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ON TUESDAY. COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD
THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION GENERALLY WORKED WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY VFR CU SPREADING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOME MVFR CAT CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AT KLAF AND
KHUF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 7 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 241414
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1014 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH THE AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST...A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WHILE
THESE FEATURES MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES...THEIR MORE
LIKELY IMPACTS ARE MERELY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL BE NEARLY IDEAL AS FAR AS AUTUMN WEEKENDS GO IN CENTRAL
INDIANA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY REASSERT CONTROL LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

RAIN IS STILL REACHING THE GROUND FROM THE SLOW MOVING RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY. THUS
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...EXPANDING THEM
SOUTHWEST PER RADAR.

RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH SOME LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
ATMOSPHERE IS EVEN DRIER. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE UPPER SYSTEM.

LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR NOW BUT MAY HAVE TO CHANGE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN BREAKS THROUGH LATER ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
IN THE FORM OF A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST AS
ACCOMPANIED FORCING IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER THAN THIS MORNINGS
WAVE WHICH HAS ONLY THUS FAR MANAGED TO PRODUCE A VERY WEAK LINE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCE UPON DEPARTURE OF THIS TROUGH
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BUMPED CONSENSUS NUMBERS UP SLIGHTLY
AS THIS COMPARES MORE FAVORABLY TO UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND THICKNESS
PROGS. MID AUTUMN WEEKENDS ARE RARELY MORE IDEAL THAN THIS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ON TUESDAY. COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD
THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION GENERALLY WORKED WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY VFR CU SPREADING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOME MVFR CAT CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AT KLAF AND
KHUF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 7 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 241335
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
935 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH THE AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST...A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WHILE
THESE FEATURES MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES...THEIR MORE
LIKELY IMPACTS ARE MERELY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL BE NEARLY IDEAL AS FAR AS AUTUMN WEEKENDS GO IN CENTRAL
INDIANA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY REASSERT CONTROL LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

RAIN IS STILL REACHING THE GROUND FROM THE SLOW MOVING RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY. THUS
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...EXPANDING THEM
SOUTHWEST PER RADAR.

RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH SOME LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
ATMOSPHERE IS EVEN DRIER. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE UPPER SYSTEM.

LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR NOW BUT MAY HAVE TO CHANGE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN BREAKS THROUGH LATER ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
IN THE FORM OF A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST AS
ACCOMPANIED FORCING IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER THAN THIS MORNINGS
WAVE WHICH HAS ONLY THUS FAR MANAGED TO PRODUCE A VERY WEAK LINE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCE UPON DEPARTURE OF THIS TROUGH
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BUMPED CONSENSUS NUMBERS UP SLIGHTLY
AS THIS COMPARES MORE FAVORABLY TO UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND THICKNESS
PROGS. MID AUTUMN WEEKENDS ARE RARELY MORE IDEAL THAN THIS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ON TUESDAY. COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD
THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION GENERALLY WORKED WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 617 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MOSTLY VFR CU SPREADING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOME MVFR CAT CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AT KLAF AND
KHUF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 7 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 241056
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
656 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH THE AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST...A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WHILE
THESE FEATURES MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES...THEIR MORE
LIKELY IMPACTS ARE MERELY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL BE NEARLY IDEAL AS FAR AS AUTUMN WEEKENDS GO IN CENTRAL
INDIANA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY REASSERT CONTROL LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ADDED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING AS PRECIP HAS HELD
TOGETHER MUCH BETTER THAN EXPECTED. MOST AREAS STILL UNLIKELY TO
MEASURE...BUT AT LEAST SOME WILL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS AS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ACCOMPANIES THE FEATURE. WILL CARRY A 14 POP AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SPRINKLES TODAY AS MOST AREAS WILL BE UNLIKELY TO MEASURE BUT
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A FEW DROPS FROM THE SKY.

ON TEMPS...UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND SKY COVER EXPECTATIONS SUGGEST THE
MODEL BLEND IS A BIT TOO WARM TODAY AND HAVE DROPPED THEM A DEGREE
OR SO...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
IN THE FORM OF A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST AS
ACCOMPANIED FORCING IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER THAN THIS MORNINGS
WAVE WHICH HAS ONLY THUS FAR MANAGED TO PRODUCE A VERY WEAK LINE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCE UPON DEPARTURE OF THIS TROUGH
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BUMPED CONSENSUS NUMBERS UP SLIGHTLY
AS THIS COMPARES MORE FAVORABLY TO UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND THICKNESS
PROGS. MID AUTUMN WEEKENDS ARE RARELY MORE IDEAL THAN THIS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ON TUESDAY. COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD
THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION GENERALLY WORKED WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 617 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MOSTLY VFR CU SPREADING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOME MVFR CAT CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AT KLAF AND
KHUF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 7 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 241056
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
656 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH THE AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST...A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WHILE
THESE FEATURES MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES...THEIR MORE
LIKELY IMPACTS ARE MERELY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL BE NEARLY IDEAL AS FAR AS AUTUMN WEEKENDS GO IN CENTRAL
INDIANA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY REASSERT CONTROL LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ADDED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING AS PRECIP HAS HELD
TOGETHER MUCH BETTER THAN EXPECTED. MOST AREAS STILL UNLIKELY TO
MEASURE...BUT AT LEAST SOME WILL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS AS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ACCOMPANIES THE FEATURE. WILL CARRY A 14 POP AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SPRINKLES TODAY AS MOST AREAS WILL BE UNLIKELY TO MEASURE BUT
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A FEW DROPS FROM THE SKY.

ON TEMPS...UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND SKY COVER EXPECTATIONS SUGGEST THE
MODEL BLEND IS A BIT TOO WARM TODAY AND HAVE DROPPED THEM A DEGREE
OR SO...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
IN THE FORM OF A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST AS
ACCOMPANIED FORCING IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER THAN THIS MORNINGS
WAVE WHICH HAS ONLY THUS FAR MANAGED TO PRODUCE A VERY WEAK LINE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCE UPON DEPARTURE OF THIS TROUGH
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BUMPED CONSENSUS NUMBERS UP SLIGHTLY
AS THIS COMPARES MORE FAVORABLY TO UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND THICKNESS
PROGS. MID AUTUMN WEEKENDS ARE RARELY MORE IDEAL THAN THIS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ON TUESDAY. COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD
THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION GENERALLY WORKED WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 617 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MOSTLY VFR CU SPREADING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOME MVFR CAT CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AT KLAF AND
KHUF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 7 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 241022
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
622 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH THE AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST...A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WHILE
THESE FEATURES MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES...THEIR MORE
LIKELY IMPACTS ARE MERELY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL BE NEARLY IDEAL AS FAR AS AUTUMN WEEKENDS GO IN CENTRAL
INDIANA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY REASSERT CONTROL LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS AS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ACCOMPANIES THE FEATURE. WILL CARRY A 14 POP AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SPRINKLES TODAY AS MOST AREAS WILL BE UNLIKELY TO MEASURE BUT
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A FEW DROPS FROM THE SKY.

ON TEMPS...UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND SKY COVER EXPECTATIONS SUGGEST THE
MODEL BLEND IS A BIT TOO WARM TODAY AND HAVE DROPPED THEM A DEGREE
OR SO...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
IN THE FORM OF A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST AS
ACCOMPANIED FORCING IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER THAN THIS MORNINGS
WAVE WHICH HAS ONLY THUS FAR MANAGED TO PRODUCE A VERY WEAK LINE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCE UPON DEPARTURE OF THIS TROUGH
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BUMPED CONSENSUS NUMBERS UP SLIGHTLY
AS THIS COMPARES MORE FAVORABLY TO UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND THICKNESS
PROGS. MID AUTUMN WEEKENDS ARE RARELY MORE IDEAL THAN THIS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ON TUESDAY. COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD
THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION GENERALLY WORKED WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 617 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MOSTLY VFR CU SPREADING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOME MVFR CAT CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AT KLAF AND
KHUF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST 7 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 240814
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
414 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH THE AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST...A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WHILE
THESE FEATURES MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES...THEIR MORE
LIKELY IMPACTS ARE MERELY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL BE NEARLY IDEAL AS FAR AS AUTUMN WEEKENDS GO IN CENTRAL
INDIANA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY REASSERT CONTROL LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS AS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ACCOMPANIES THE FEATURE. WILL CARRY A 14 POP AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SPRINKLES TODAY AS MOST AREAS WILL BE UNLIKELY TO MEASURE BUT
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A FEW DROPS FROM THE SKY.

ON TEMPS...UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND SKY COVER EXPECTATIONS SUGGEST THE
MODEL BLEND IS A BIT TOO WARM TODAY AND HAVE DROPPED THEM A DEGREE
OR SO...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
IN THE FORM OF A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST AS
ACCOMPANIED FORCING IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER THAN THIS MORNINGS
WAVE WHICH HAS ONLY THUS FAR MANAGED TO PRODUCE A VERY WEAK LINE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCE UPON DEPARTURE OF THIS TROUGH
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BUMPED CONSENSUS NUMBERS UP SLIGHTLY
AS THIS COMPARES MORE FAVORABLY TO UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND THICKNESS
PROGS. MID AUTUMN WEEKENDS ARE RARELY MORE IDEAL THAN THIS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ON TUESDAY. COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD
THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION GENERALLY WORKED WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 240600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

0815Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

VFR CU WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ALSO...WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR
CAT ESPECIALLY AT LAF. THE CU WILL BE DECREASING FIRST AT LAF AFTER
17Z. WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHWEST 7
KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 240814
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
414 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH THE AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST...A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WHILE
THESE FEATURES MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES...THEIR MORE
LIKELY IMPACTS ARE MERELY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL BE NEARLY IDEAL AS FAR AS AUTUMN WEEKENDS GO IN CENTRAL
INDIANA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY REASSERT CONTROL LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS AS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ACCOMPANIES THE FEATURE. WILL CARRY A 14 POP AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SPRINKLES TODAY AS MOST AREAS WILL BE UNLIKELY TO MEASURE BUT
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A FEW DROPS FROM THE SKY.

ON TEMPS...UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND SKY COVER EXPECTATIONS SUGGEST THE
MODEL BLEND IS A BIT TOO WARM TODAY AND HAVE DROPPED THEM A DEGREE
OR SO...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
IN THE FORM OF A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST AS
ACCOMPANIED FORCING IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER THAN THIS MORNINGS
WAVE WHICH HAS ONLY THUS FAR MANAGED TO PRODUCE A VERY WEAK LINE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCE UPON DEPARTURE OF THIS TROUGH
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BUMPED CONSENSUS NUMBERS UP SLIGHTLY
AS THIS COMPARES MORE FAVORABLY TO UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND THICKNESS
PROGS. MID AUTUMN WEEKENDS ARE RARELY MORE IDEAL THAN THIS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ON TUESDAY. COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD
THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION GENERALLY WORKED WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 240600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

0815Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

VFR CU WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ALSO...WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR
CAT ESPECIALLY AT LAF. THE CU WILL BE DECREASING FIRST AT LAF AFTER
17Z. WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHWEST 7
KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 240759
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH THE AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST...A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WHILE
THESE FEATURES MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES...THEIR MORE
LIKELY IMPACTS ARE MERELY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL BE NEARLY IDEAL AS FAR AS AUTUMN WEEKENDS GO IN CENTRAL
INDIANA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY REASSERT CONTROL LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS AS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ACCOMPANIES THE FEATURE. WILL CARRY A 14 POP AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SPRINKLES TODAY AS MOST AREAS WILL BE UNLIKELY TO MEASURE BUT
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A FEW DROPS FROM THE SKY.

ON TEMPS...UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND SKY COVER EXPECTATIONS SUGGEST THE
MODEL BLEND IS A BIT TOO WARM TODAY AND HAVE DROPPED THEM A DEGREE
OR SO...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
IN THE FORM OF A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST AS
ACCOMPANIED FORCING IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER THAN THIS MORNINGS
WAVE WHICH HAS ONLY THUS FAR MANAGED TO PRODUCE A VERY WEAK LINE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCE UPON DEPARTURE OF THIS TROUGH
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BUMPED CONSENSUS NUMBERS UP SLIGHTLY
AS THIS COMPARES MORE FAVORABLY TO UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND THICKNESS
PROGS. MID AUTUMN WEEKENDS ARE RARELY MORE IDEAL THAN THIS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ON TUESDAY. COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD
THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION GENERALLY WORKED WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 240600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1153 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CU WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ALSO...WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR
CAT ESPECIALLY AT LAF. THE CU WILL BE DECREASING FIRST AT LAF AFTER
17Z. WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHWEST 7
KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...KOCH

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000
FXUS63 KIND 240354
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1154 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../OVERNIGHT/
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS PARTS OF ILLINOIS...AND THESE
MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT OVERALL DEEP MOISTURE
AND LIFT LOOK RATHER ANEMIC FOR PRECIPITATION GENERATION OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE POPS GOING AS IS.

OTHERWISE...CURRENT TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSE TO FORECAST LOWS IN
SOME AREAS. WILL DROP THE LOWS A LITTLE MORE IN THESE AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES IN. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INTERFERE WITH THE PARTIAL
SOLAR ECLIPSE NEAR SUNSET...DEPENDING ON HOW THICK THEY END UP
BEING.

THERE WILL BE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT TONIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE ONLY WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AND
CONFINED THEM TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE
BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
SPRINKLES FARTHER SOUTH.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME CLOUDS WILL STILL LINGER FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
EXITING TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL THEN DECREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS GIVEN LINGERING
CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO A RAW MODEL BLEND.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE PROBLEM WILL BE MOISTURE
WITH MAIN SOURCES OF MOISTURE CUT OFF BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED
WITH SPRINKLES MENTION FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE SHOULD BE WARM WITH COLD ADVECTION NOT REALLY KICKING IN
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PROVIDING DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THIS IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION WILL NOT BE CHANGED.

THE MODELS STAY CLOSE IN HOW THEY HANDLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. STARTING WEDNESDAY THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT ABOUT DRY
WEATHER EVEN IF FOR DIFFERENT REASONS.

MODEL SIMILARITY GIVES CONFIDENCE IN THEIR COMPARABLE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT TEMPERATURE PREDICTIONS BECOME

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 240600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1153 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CU WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ALSO...WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR
CAT ESPECIALLY AT LAF. THE CU WILL BE DECREASING FIRST AT LAF AFTER
17Z. WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHWEST 7
KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/JAS
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...KOCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 240354
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1154 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../OVERNIGHT/
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS PARTS OF ILLINOIS...AND THESE
MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT OVERALL DEEP MOISTURE
AND LIFT LOOK RATHER ANEMIC FOR PRECIPITATION GENERATION OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE POPS GOING AS IS.

OTHERWISE...CURRENT TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSE TO FORECAST LOWS IN
SOME AREAS. WILL DROP THE LOWS A LITTLE MORE IN THESE AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES IN. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INTERFERE WITH THE PARTIAL
SOLAR ECLIPSE NEAR SUNSET...DEPENDING ON HOW THICK THEY END UP
BEING.

THERE WILL BE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT TONIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE ONLY WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AND
CONFINED THEM TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE
BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
SPRINKLES FARTHER SOUTH.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME CLOUDS WILL STILL LINGER FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
EXITING TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL THEN DECREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS GIVEN LINGERING
CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO A RAW MODEL BLEND.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE PROBLEM WILL BE MOISTURE
WITH MAIN SOURCES OF MOISTURE CUT OFF BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED
WITH SPRINKLES MENTION FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE SHOULD BE WARM WITH COLD ADVECTION NOT REALLY KICKING IN
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PROVIDING DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THIS IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION WILL NOT BE CHANGED.

THE MODELS STAY CLOSE IN HOW THEY HANDLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. STARTING WEDNESDAY THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT ABOUT DRY
WEATHER EVEN IF FOR DIFFERENT REASONS.

MODEL SIMILARITY GIVES CONFIDENCE IN THEIR COMPARABLE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT TEMPERATURE PREDICTIONS BECOME

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 240600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1153 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CU WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ALSO...WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR
CAT ESPECIALLY AT LAF. THE CU WILL BE DECREASING FIRST AT LAF AFTER
17Z. WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHWEST 7
KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/JAS
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...KOCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 240218
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1018 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../OVERNIGHT/
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS PARTS OF ILLINOIS...AND THESE
MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT OVERALL DEEP MOISTURE
AND LIFT LOOK RATHER ANEMIC FOR PRECIPITATION GENERATION OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE POPS GOING AS IS.

OTHERWISE...CURRENT TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSE TO FORECAST LOWS IN
SOME AREAS. WILL DROP THE LOWS A LITTLE MORE IN THESE AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES IN. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INTERFERE WITH THE PARTIAL
SOLAR ECLIPSE NEAR SUNSET...DEPENDING ON HOW THICK THEY END UP
BEING.

THERE WILL BE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT TONIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE ONLY WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AND
CONFINED THEM TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE
BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
SPRINKLES FARTHER SOUTH.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME CLOUDS WILL STILL LINGER FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
EXITING TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL THEN DECREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS GIVEN LINGERING
CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO A RAW MODEL BLEND.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE PROBLEM WILL BE MOISTURE
WITH MAIN SOURCES OF MOISTURE CUT OFF BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED
WITH SPRINKLES MENTION FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE SHOULD BE WARM WITH COLD ADVECTION NOT REALLY KICKING IN
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PROVIDING DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THIS IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION WILL NOT BE CHANGED.

THE MODELS STAY CLOSE IN HOW THEY HANDLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. STARTING WEDNESDAY THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT ABOUT DRY
WEATHER EVEN IF FOR DIFFERENT REASONS.

MODEL SIMILARITY GIVES CONFIDENCE IN THEIR COMPARABLE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT TEMPERATURE PREDICTIONS BECOME
LESS CERTAIN AS THE MODELS MOVE APART.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 240300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1018 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAK TO WINDS FOR THE UPDATE.

NO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THICK HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. SHOULD ALSO
SEE SOME CU OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CU BUT WOULD NOT
RULE OUT MVFR. WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER AFTER 02Z AT
LAF...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION.

WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST 7 KNOTS OR
LESS AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/JAS
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 240218
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1018 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../OVERNIGHT/
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS PARTS OF ILLINOIS...AND THESE
MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT OVERALL DEEP MOISTURE
AND LIFT LOOK RATHER ANEMIC FOR PRECIPITATION GENERATION OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE POPS GOING AS IS.

OTHERWISE...CURRENT TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSE TO FORECAST LOWS IN
SOME AREAS. WILL DROP THE LOWS A LITTLE MORE IN THESE AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES IN. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INTERFERE WITH THE PARTIAL
SOLAR ECLIPSE NEAR SUNSET...DEPENDING ON HOW THICK THEY END UP
BEING.

THERE WILL BE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT TONIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE ONLY WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AND
CONFINED THEM TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE
BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
SPRINKLES FARTHER SOUTH.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME CLOUDS WILL STILL LINGER FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
EXITING TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL THEN DECREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS GIVEN LINGERING
CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO A RAW MODEL BLEND.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE PROBLEM WILL BE MOISTURE
WITH MAIN SOURCES OF MOISTURE CUT OFF BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED
WITH SPRINKLES MENTION FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE SHOULD BE WARM WITH COLD ADVECTION NOT REALLY KICKING IN
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PROVIDING DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THIS IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION WILL NOT BE CHANGED.

THE MODELS STAY CLOSE IN HOW THEY HANDLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. STARTING WEDNESDAY THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT ABOUT DRY
WEATHER EVEN IF FOR DIFFERENT REASONS.

MODEL SIMILARITY GIVES CONFIDENCE IN THEIR COMPARABLE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT TEMPERATURE PREDICTIONS BECOME
LESS CERTAIN AS THE MODELS MOVE APART.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 240300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1018 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAK TO WINDS FOR THE UPDATE.

NO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THICK HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. SHOULD ALSO
SEE SOME CU OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CU BUT WOULD NOT
RULE OUT MVFR. WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER AFTER 02Z AT
LAF...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION.

WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST 7 KNOTS OR
LESS AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/JAS
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 240159
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
955 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../OVERNIGHT/
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS PARTS OF ILLINOIS...AND THESE
MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT OVERALL DEEP MOISTURE
AND LIFT LOOK RATHER ANEMIC FOR PRECIPITATION GENERATION OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE POPS GOING AS IS.

OTHERWISE...CURRENT TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSE TO FORECAST LOWS IN
SOME AREAS. WILL DROP THE LOWS A LITTLE MORE IN THESE AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES IN. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INTERFERE WITH THE PARTIAL
SOLAR ECLIPSE NEAR SUNSET...DEPENDING ON HOW THICK THEY END UP
BEING.

THERE WILL BE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT TONIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE ONLY WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AND
CONFINED THEM TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE
BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
SPRINKLES FARTHER SOUTH.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME CLOUDS WILL STILL LINGER FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
EXITING TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL THEN DECREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS GIVEN LINGERING
CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO A RAW MODEL BLEND.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE PROBLEM WILL BE MOISTURE
WITH MAIN SOURCES OF MOISTURE CUT OFF BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED
WITH SPRINKLES MENTION FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE SHOULD BE WARM WITH COLD ADVECTION NOT REALLY KICKING IN
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PROVIDING DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THIS IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION WILL NOT BE CHANGED.

THE MODELS STAY CLOSE IN HOW THEY HANDLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. STARTING WEDNESDAY THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT ABOUT DRY
WEATHER EVEN IF FOR DIFFERENT REASONS.

MODEL SIMILARITY GIVES CONFIDENCE IN THEIR COMPARABLE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT TEMPERATURE PREDICTIONS BECOME
LESS CERTAIN AS THE MODELS MOVE APART.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 240000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 600 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THICK HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. SHOULD ALSO
SEE SOME CU OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CU BUT WOULD NOT
RULE OUT MVFR. WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER AFTER 02Z AT
LAF...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION.

WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST 7 KNOTS OR
LESS AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/JAS
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 240159
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
955 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../OVERNIGHT/
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS PARTS OF ILLINOIS...AND THESE
MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT OVERALL DEEP MOISTURE
AND LIFT LOOK RATHER ANEMIC FOR PRECIPITATION GENERATION OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE POPS GOING AS IS.

OTHERWISE...CURRENT TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSE TO FORECAST LOWS IN
SOME AREAS. WILL DROP THE LOWS A LITTLE MORE IN THESE AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES IN. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INTERFERE WITH THE PARTIAL
SOLAR ECLIPSE NEAR SUNSET...DEPENDING ON HOW THICK THEY END UP
BEING.

THERE WILL BE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT TONIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE ONLY WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AND
CONFINED THEM TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE
BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
SPRINKLES FARTHER SOUTH.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME CLOUDS WILL STILL LINGER FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
EXITING TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL THEN DECREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS GIVEN LINGERING
CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO A RAW MODEL BLEND.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE PROBLEM WILL BE MOISTURE
WITH MAIN SOURCES OF MOISTURE CUT OFF BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED
WITH SPRINKLES MENTION FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE SHOULD BE WARM WITH COLD ADVECTION NOT REALLY KICKING IN
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PROVIDING DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THIS IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION WILL NOT BE CHANGED.

THE MODELS STAY CLOSE IN HOW THEY HANDLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. STARTING WEDNESDAY THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT ABOUT DRY
WEATHER EVEN IF FOR DIFFERENT REASONS.

MODEL SIMILARITY GIVES CONFIDENCE IN THEIR COMPARABLE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT TEMPERATURE PREDICTIONS BECOME
LESS CERTAIN AS THE MODELS MOVE APART.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 240000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 600 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THICK HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. SHOULD ALSO
SEE SOME CU OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CU BUT WOULD NOT
RULE OUT MVFR. WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER AFTER 02Z AT
LAF...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION.

WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST 7 KNOTS OR
LESS AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/JAS
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
















000
FXUS63 KIND 232200
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
600 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES IN. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INTERFERE WITH THE PARTIAL
SOLAR ECLIPSE NEAR SUNSET...DEPENDING ON HOW THICK THEY END UP
BEING.

THERE WILL BE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT TONIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE ONLY WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AND
CONFINED THEM TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE
BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
SPRINKLES FARTHER SOUTH.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME CLOUDS WILL STILL LINGER FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
EXITING TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL THEN DECREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS GIVEN LINGERING
CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO A RAW MODEL BLEND.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE PROBLEM WILL BE MOISTURE
WITH MAIN SOURCES OF MOISTURE CUT OFF BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED
WITH SPRINKLES MENTION FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE SHOULD BE WARM WITH COLD ADVECTION NOT REALLY KICKING IN
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PROVIDING DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THIS IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION WILL NOT BE CHANGED.

THE MODELS STAY CLOSE IN HOW THEY HANDLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. STARTING WEDNESDAY THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT ABOUT DRY
WEATHER EVEN IF FOR DIFFERENT REASONS.

MODEL SIMILARITY GIVES CONFIDENCE IN THEIR COMPARABLE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT TEMPERATURE PREDICTIONS BECOME
LESS CERTAIN AS THE MODELS MOVE APART.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 240000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 600 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THICK HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. SHOULD ALSO
SEE SOME CU OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CU BUT WOULD NOT
RULE OUT MVFR. WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER AFTER 02Z AT
LAF...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION.

WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST 7 KNOTS OR
LESS AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 232020
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
429 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES IN. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INTERFERE WITH THE PARTIAL
SOLAR ECLIPSE NEAR SUNSET...DEPENDING ON HOW THICK THEY END UP
BEING.

THERE WILL BE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT TONIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE ONLY WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AND
CONFINED THEM TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE
BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
SPRINKLES FARTHER SOUTH.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME CLOUDS WILL STILL LINGER FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
EXITING TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL THEN DECREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS GIVEN LINGERING
CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO A RAW MODEL BLEND.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE PROBLEM WILL BE MOISTURE
WITH MAIN SOURCES OF MOISTURE CUT OFF BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED
WITH SPRINKLES MENTION FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE SHOULD BE WARM WITH COLD ADVECTION NOT REALLY KICKING IN
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PROVIDING DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THIS IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION WILL NOT BE CHANGED.

THE MODELS STAY CLOSE IN HOW THEY HANDLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. STARTING WEDNESDAY THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT ABOUT DRY
WEATHER EVEN IF FOR DIFFERENT REASONS.

MODEL SIMILARITY GIVES CONFIDENCE IN THEIR COMPARABLE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT TEMPERATURE PREDICTIONS BECOME
LESS CERTAIN AS THE MODELS MOVE APART.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 232100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN INDIANA AND OHIO WILL DEPART THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO PUSH EAST. ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUD
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS SEEN ON SATELLITE IS EXPECTED TO
INVADE...ALTHOUGH ANY CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONCUR...SHOWING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE
ON FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL CONVECT TEMPS MAY BE
REACHABLE BRIEFLY DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF MIXING WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME BRIEF CU...STILL VFR WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JP/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 231856
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
256 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES IN. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INTERFERE WITH THE PARTIAL
SOLAR ECLIPSE NEAR SUNSET...DEPENDING ON HOW THICK THEY END UP
BEING.

THERE WILL BE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT TONIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE ONLY WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AND
CONFINED THEM TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE
BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
SPRINKLES FARTHER SOUTH.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME CLOUDS WILL STILL LINGER FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
EXITING TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL THEN DECREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS GIVEN LINGERING
CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO A RAW MODEL BLEND.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE PROBLEM WILL BE MOISTURE
WITH MAIN SOURCES OF MOISTURE CUT OFF BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED
WITH SPRINKLES MENTION FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE SHOULD BE WARM WITH COLD ADVECTION NOT REALLY KICKING IN
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PROVIDING DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THIS IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION WILL NOT BE CHANGED.

THE MODELS STAY CLOSE IN HOW THEY HANDLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. STARTING WEDNESDAY THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT ABOUT DRY
WEATHER EVEN IF FOR DIFFERENT REASONS.

MODEL SIMILARITY GIVES CONFIDENCE IN THEIR COMPARABLE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT TEMPERATURE PREDICTIONS BECOME
LESS CERTAIN AS THE MODELS MOVE APART.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 231800Z IND TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN INDIANA AND OHIO WILL DEPART THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO PUSH EAST. ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUD
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS SEEN ON SATELLITE IS EXPECTED TO
INVADE...ALTHOUGH ANY CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONCUR...SHOWING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE
ON FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL CONVECT TEMPS MAY BE
REACHABLE BRIEFLY DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF MIXING WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME BRIEF CU...STILL VFR WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 231856
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
256 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES IN. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INTERFERE WITH THE PARTIAL
SOLAR ECLIPSE NEAR SUNSET...DEPENDING ON HOW THICK THEY END UP
BEING.

THERE WILL BE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT TONIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE ONLY WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AND
CONFINED THEM TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE
BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
SPRINKLES FARTHER SOUTH.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME CLOUDS WILL STILL LINGER FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
EXITING TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL THEN DECREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS GIVEN LINGERING
CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO A RAW MODEL BLEND.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE PROBLEM WILL BE MOISTURE
WITH MAIN SOURCES OF MOISTURE CUT OFF BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED
WITH SPRINKLES MENTION FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE SHOULD BE WARM WITH COLD ADVECTION NOT REALLY KICKING IN
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PROVIDING DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THIS IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION WILL NOT BE CHANGED.

THE MODELS STAY CLOSE IN HOW THEY HANDLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. STARTING WEDNESDAY THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT ABOUT DRY
WEATHER EVEN IF FOR DIFFERENT REASONS.

MODEL SIMILARITY GIVES CONFIDENCE IN THEIR COMPARABLE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT TEMPERATURE PREDICTIONS BECOME
LESS CERTAIN AS THE MODELS MOVE APART.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 231800Z IND TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN INDIANA AND OHIO WILL DEPART THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO PUSH EAST. ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUD
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS SEEN ON SATELLITE IS EXPECTED TO
INVADE...ALTHOUGH ANY CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONCUR...SHOWING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE
ON FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL CONVECT TEMPS MAY BE
REACHABLE BRIEFLY DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF MIXING WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME BRIEF CU...STILL VFR WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 231739
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
139 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
WAVE TONIGHT THAT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. AFTER SOME WARMING FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WITH CALM WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S CURRENTLY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WITH FROST ADVISORY. ALSO WITH SMALL
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG AS SOME LOW SPOTS AROUND
CENTRAL INDIANA HAVE SEEN VISIBILITIES DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE.

ONCE THE SUN COMES UP FOG AND FROST SHOULD BOTH RAPIDLY BURN OFF.
SUNNY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE DAY UNDER UPPER RIDGING.
BY LATE AFTERNOON THOUGH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND
THESE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WENT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN CONSENSUS BASED ON
GOOD SUNSHINE EARLY AND NEUTRAL TO WARM ADVECTION AT 850.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE BEST
FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. THAT SAID THERE IS STILL SOME UPPER FORCING OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THIS IS ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.
ELSEWHERE JUST BUMPED CLOUD COVER UP A LITTLE. FRIDAY THE MET KEEPS
SOME LOW POPS GOING WITH A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT DON/T
SEE THIS FEATURE IN THE OTHER MODELS SO WILL GO DRY. FRIDAY NIGHT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH BUT THERE IS EVEN LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND NO UPPER SUPPORT. THOUGHT THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT LOOK DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING CLOSER. FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS FOR
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS SATURDAY REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THIS IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION WILL NOT BE CHANGED.

THE MODELS STAY CLOSE IN HOW THEY HANDLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. STARTING WEDNESDAY THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT ABOUT DRY
WEATHER EVEN IF FOR DIFFERENT REASONS.

MODEL SIMILARITY GIVES CONFIDENCE IN THEIR COMPARABLE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT TEMPERATURE PREDICTIONS BECOME
LESS CERTAIN AS THE MODELS MOVE APART.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 231800Z IND TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN INDIANA AND OHIO WILL DEPART THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO PUSH EAST. ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUD
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS SEEN ON SATELLITE IS EXPECTED TO
INVADE...ALTHOUGH ANY CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONCUR...SHOWING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE
ON FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL CONVECT TEMPS MAY BE
REACHABLE BRIEFLY DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF MIXING WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME BRIEF CU...STILL VFR WILL BE THE RULE.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 231739
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
139 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
WAVE TONIGHT THAT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. AFTER SOME WARMING FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WITH CALM WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S CURRENTLY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WITH FROST ADVISORY. ALSO WITH SMALL
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG AS SOME LOW SPOTS AROUND
CENTRAL INDIANA HAVE SEEN VISIBILITIES DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE.

ONCE THE SUN COMES UP FOG AND FROST SHOULD BOTH RAPIDLY BURN OFF.
SUNNY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE DAY UNDER UPPER RIDGING.
BY LATE AFTERNOON THOUGH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND
THESE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WENT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN CONSENSUS BASED ON
GOOD SUNSHINE EARLY AND NEUTRAL TO WARM ADVECTION AT 850.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE BEST
FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. THAT SAID THERE IS STILL SOME UPPER FORCING OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THIS IS ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.
ELSEWHERE JUST BUMPED CLOUD COVER UP A LITTLE. FRIDAY THE MET KEEPS
SOME LOW POPS GOING WITH A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT DON/T
SEE THIS FEATURE IN THE OTHER MODELS SO WILL GO DRY. FRIDAY NIGHT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH BUT THERE IS EVEN LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND NO UPPER SUPPORT. THOUGHT THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT LOOK DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING CLOSER. FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS FOR
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS SATURDAY REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THIS IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION WILL NOT BE CHANGED.

THE MODELS STAY CLOSE IN HOW THEY HANDLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. STARTING WEDNESDAY THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT ABOUT DRY
WEATHER EVEN IF FOR DIFFERENT REASONS.

MODEL SIMILARITY GIVES CONFIDENCE IN THEIR COMPARABLE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT TEMPERATURE PREDICTIONS BECOME
LESS CERTAIN AS THE MODELS MOVE APART.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 231800Z IND TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN INDIANA AND OHIO WILL DEPART THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO PUSH EAST. ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUD
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS SEEN ON SATELLITE IS EXPECTED TO
INVADE...ALTHOUGH ANY CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONCUR...SHOWING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE
ON FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL CONVECT TEMPS MAY BE
REACHABLE BRIEFLY DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF MIXING WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME BRIEF CU...STILL VFR WILL BE THE RULE.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 231712
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
112 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
WAVE TONIGHT THAT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. AFTER SOME WARMING FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WITH CALM WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S CURRENTLY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WITH FROST ADVISORY. ALSO WITH SMALL
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG AS SOME LOW SPOTS AROUND
CENTRAL INDIANA HAVE SEEN VISIBILITIES DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE.

ONCE THE SUN COMES UP FOG AND FROST SHOULD BOTH RAPIDLY BURN OFF.
SUNNY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE DAY UNDER UPPER RIDGING.
BY LATE AFTERNOON THOUGH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND
THESE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WENT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN CONSENSUS BASED ON
GOOD SUNSHINE EARLY AND NEUTRAL TO WARM ADVECTION AT 850.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE BEST
FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. THAT SAID THERE IS STILL SOME UPPER FORCING OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THIS IS ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.
ELSEWHERE JUST BUMPED CLOUD COVER UP A LITTLE. FRIDAY THE MET KEEPS
SOME LOW POPS GOING WITH A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT DON/T
SEE THIS FEATURE IN THE OTHER MODELS SO WILL GO DRY. FRIDAY NIGHT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH BUT THERE IS EVEN LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND NO UPPER SUPPORT. THOUGHT THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT LOOK DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING CLOSER. FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS FOR
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS SATURDAY REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FAIR AND MILD WEATHER WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY BRINGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION.

THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE GFS AND GEMNH
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...WHILE THE 12Z EURO IS
ALMOST A DAY SLOWER BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS
IT CREATES A CUTOFF UPPER LOW. THIS IS OFTEN A BIAS WITH THE
EURO...SO WILL KEEP EVERYTHING MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR NOW.  WILL BEGIN
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST VERY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND THEN GO WITH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE MU CAPES OF 200 TO 400 J/KG TUESDAY...SO WILL MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDER. OTHERWISE WENT WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOST
OTHER PERIODS.  ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE ADVENT MODELS TREND SLOWER.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES SUPER BLEND INITIALIZATION SEEMS A BIT TOO
COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LEANED CLOSER TO A HPC GFS BLEND.
OTHERWISE...SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE MOST OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 231800Z IND TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN INDIANA AND OHIO WILL DEPART THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO PUSH EAST. ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUD
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS SEEN ON SATELLITE IS EXPECTED TO
INVADE...ALTHOUGH ANY CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONCUR...SHOWING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE
ON FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL CONVECT TEMPS MAY BE
REACHABLE BRIEFLY DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF MIXING WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME BRIEF CU...STILL VFR WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 231712
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
112 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
WAVE TONIGHT THAT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. AFTER SOME WARMING FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WITH CALM WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S CURRENTLY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WITH FROST ADVISORY. ALSO WITH SMALL
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG AS SOME LOW SPOTS AROUND
CENTRAL INDIANA HAVE SEEN VISIBILITIES DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE.

ONCE THE SUN COMES UP FOG AND FROST SHOULD BOTH RAPIDLY BURN OFF.
SUNNY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE DAY UNDER UPPER RIDGING.
BY LATE AFTERNOON THOUGH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND
THESE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WENT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN CONSENSUS BASED ON
GOOD SUNSHINE EARLY AND NEUTRAL TO WARM ADVECTION AT 850.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE BEST
FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. THAT SAID THERE IS STILL SOME UPPER FORCING OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THIS IS ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.
ELSEWHERE JUST BUMPED CLOUD COVER UP A LITTLE. FRIDAY THE MET KEEPS
SOME LOW POPS GOING WITH A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT DON/T
SEE THIS FEATURE IN THE OTHER MODELS SO WILL GO DRY. FRIDAY NIGHT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH BUT THERE IS EVEN LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND NO UPPER SUPPORT. THOUGHT THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT LOOK DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING CLOSER. FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS FOR
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS SATURDAY REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FAIR AND MILD WEATHER WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY BRINGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION.

THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE GFS AND GEMNH
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...WHILE THE 12Z EURO IS
ALMOST A DAY SLOWER BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS
IT CREATES A CUTOFF UPPER LOW. THIS IS OFTEN A BIAS WITH THE
EURO...SO WILL KEEP EVERYTHING MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR NOW.  WILL BEGIN
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST VERY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND THEN GO WITH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE MU CAPES OF 200 TO 400 J/KG TUESDAY...SO WILL MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDER. OTHERWISE WENT WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOST
OTHER PERIODS.  ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE ADVENT MODELS TREND SLOWER.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES SUPER BLEND INITIALIZATION SEEMS A BIT TOO
COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LEANED CLOSER TO A HPC GFS BLEND.
OTHERWISE...SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE MOST OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 231800Z IND TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN INDIANA AND OHIO WILL DEPART THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO PUSH EAST. ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUD
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS SEEN ON SATELLITE IS EXPECTED TO
INVADE...ALTHOUGH ANY CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONCUR...SHOWING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE
ON FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL CONVECT TEMPS MAY BE
REACHABLE BRIEFLY DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF MIXING WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME BRIEF CU...STILL VFR WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 231418
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1018 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
WAVE TONIGHT THAT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. AFTER SOME WARMING FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WITH CALM WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S CURRENTLY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WITH FROST ADVISORY. ALSO WITH SMALL
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG AS SOME LOW SPOTS AROUND
CENTRAL INDIANA HAVE SEEN VISIBILITIES DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE.

ONCE THE SUN COMES UP FOG AND FROST SHOULD BOTH RAPIDLY BURN OFF.
SUNNY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE DAY UNDER UPPER RIDGING.
BY LATE AFTERNOON THOUGH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND
THESE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WENT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN CONSENSUS BASED ON
GOOD SUNSHINE EARLY AND NEUTRAL TO WARM ADVECTION AT 850.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE BEST
FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. THAT SAID THERE IS STILL SOME UPPER FORCING OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THIS IS ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.
ELSEWHERE JUST BUMPED CLOUD COVER UP A LITTLE. FRIDAY THE MET KEEPS
SOME LOW POPS GOING WITH A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT DON/T
SEE THIS FEATURE IN THE OTHER MODELS SO WILL GO DRY. FRIDAY NIGHT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH BUT THERE IS EVEN LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND NO UPPER SUPPORT. THOUGHT THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT LOOK DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING CLOSER. FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS FOR
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS SATURDAY REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FAIR AND MILD WEATHER WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY BRINGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION.

THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE GFS AND GEMNH
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...WHILE THE 12Z EURO IS
ALMOST A DAY SLOWER BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS
IT CREATES A CUTOFF UPPER LOW. THIS IS OFTEN A BIAS WITH THE
EURO...SO WILL KEEP EVERYTHING MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR NOW.  WILL BEGIN
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST VERY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND THEN GO WITH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE MU CAPES OF 200 TO 400 J/KG TUESDAY...SO WILL MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDER. OTHERWISE WENT WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOST
OTHER PERIODS.  ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE ADVENT MODELS TREND SLOWER.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES SUPER BLEND INITIALIZATION SEEMS A BIT TOO
COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LEANED CLOSER TO A HPC GFS BLEND.
OTHERWISE...SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE MOST OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 231500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED VERY SOON.

JUST A MINOR UPDATE TO THE TIMING FOR DISSIPATION OF MVFR MORNING
FOG. MIXING AND HEATING RESUMING WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER INDIANA AND OHIO. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY 15Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 23/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

AREAS OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL CAUSE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FIRST
HOUR OR TWO AT OUTLYING TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR.

EXPECT LITTLE OR NO FOG AT KIND...WHILE KBMG WILL BE LIFR AT TIMES
AND KHUF AND KLAF WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR FOG. ALL AREAS WILL BE VFR
AFTER 14Z AS FOG CLEARS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE
WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD MID CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO LESS THAN 5 THOUSAND FEET AT KLAF BY
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN HIGHER ELSEWHERE WITH
MOSTLY MID CLOUDS SPREADING IN.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST UP TO 6 KNOTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 231047
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
648 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
WAVE TONIGHT THAT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. AFTER SOME WARMING FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WITH CALM WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S CURRENTLY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WITH FROST ADVISORY. ALSO WITH SMALL
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG AS SOME LOW SPOTS AROUND
CENTRAL INDIANA HAVE SEEN VISIBILITIES DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE.

ONCE THE SUN COMES UP FOG AND FROST SHOULD BOTH RAPIDLY BURN OFF.
SUNNY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE DAY UNDER UPPER RIDGING.
BY LATE AFTERNOON THOUGH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND
THESE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WENT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN CONSENSUS BASED ON
GOOD SUNSHINE EARLY AND NEUTRAL TO WARM ADVECTION AT 850.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE BEST
FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. THAT SAID THERE IS STILL SOME UPPER FORCING OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THIS IS ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.
ELSEWHERE JUST BUMPED CLOUD COVER UP A LITTLE. FRIDAY THE MET KEEPS
SOME LOW POPS GOING WITH A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT DON/T
SEE THIS FEATURE IN THE OTHER MODELS SO WILL GO DRY. FRIDAY NIGHT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH BUT THERE IS EVEN LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND NO UPPER SUPPORT. THOUGHT THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT LOOK DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING CLOSER. FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS FOR
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS SATURDAY REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FAIR AND MILD WEATHER WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY BRINGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION.

THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE GFS AND GEMNH
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...WHILE THE 12Z EURO IS
ALMOST A DAY SLOWER BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS
IT CREATES A CUTOFF UPPER LOW. THIS IS OFTEN A BIAS WITH THE
EURO...SO WILL KEEP EVERYTHING MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR NOW.  WILL BEGIN
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST VERY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND THEN GO WITH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE MU CAPES OF 200 TO 400 J/KG TUESDAY...SO WILL MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDER. OTHERWISE WENT WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOST
OTHER PERIODS.  ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE ADVENT MODELS TREND SLOWER.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES SUPER BLEND INITIALIZATION SEEMS A BIT TOO
COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LEANED CLOSER TO A HPC GFS BLEND.
OTHERWISE...SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE MOST OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 23/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

AREAS OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL CAUSE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FIRST
HOUR OR TWO AT OUTLYING TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR.

EXPECT LITTLE OR NO FOG AT KIND...WHILE KBMG WILL BE LIFR AT TIMES
AND KHUF AND KLAF WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR FOG. ALL AREAS WILL BE VFR
AFTER 14Z AS FOG CLEARS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE
WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD MID CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO LESS THAN 5 THOUSAND FEET AT KLAF BY
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN HIGHER ELSEWHERE WITH
MOSTLY MID CLOUDS SPREADING IN.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST UP TO 6 KNOTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS















000
FXUS63 KIND 230827
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
427 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
WAVE TONIGHT THAT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. AFTER SOME WARMING FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WITH CALM WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S CURRENTLY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WITH FROST ADVISORY. ALSO WITH SMALL
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG AS SOME LOW SPOTS AROUND
CENTRAL INDIANA HAVE SEEN VISIBILITIES DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE.

ONCE THE SUN COMES UP FOG AND FROST SHOULD BOTH RAPIDLY BURN OFF.
SUNNY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE DAY UNDER UPPER RIDGING.
BY LATE AFTERNOON THOUGH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND
THESE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WENT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN CONSENSUS BASED ON
GOOD SUNSHINE EARLY AND NEUTRAL TO WARM ADVECTION AT 850.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE BEST
FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. THAT SAID THERE IS STILL SOME UPPER FORCING OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THIS IS ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.
ELSEWHERE JUST BUMPED CLOUD COVER UP A LITTLE. FRIDAY THE MET KEEPS
SOME LOW POPS GOING WITH A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT DON/T
SEE THIS FEATURE IN THE OTHER MODELS SO WILL GO DRY. FRIDAY NIGHT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH BUT THERE IS EVEN LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND NO UPPER SUPPORT. THOUGHT THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT LOOK DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING CLOSER. FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS FOR
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS SATURDAY REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FAIR AND MILD WEATHER WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY BRINGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION.

THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE GFS AND GEMNH
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...WHILE THE 12Z EURO IS
ALMOST A DAY SLOWER BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS
IT CREATES A CUTOFF UPPER LOW. THIS IS OFTEN A BIAS WITH THE
EURO...SO WILL KEEP EVERYTHING MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR NOW.  WILL BEGIN
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST VERY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND THEN GO WITH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE MU CAPES OF 200 TO 400 J/KG TUESDAY...SO WILL MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDER. OTHERWISE WENT WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOST
OTHER PERIODS.  ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE ADVENT MODELS TREND SLOWER.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES SUPER BLEND INITIALIZATION SEEMS A BIT TOO
COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LEANED CLOSER TO A HPC GFS BLEND.
OTHERWISE...SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE MOST OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 23/0900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHALLOW GROUND FOG TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION
BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL OF
GROUND FOG AT THE OUTLYING TAF SITES FROM 09Z-13Z WHICH MAY
TEMPORARILY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO IFR CATEGORY AT OUTLYING TAF SITES
AND MVFR AT KIND WHERE CITY EFFECT MAY LESSEN FOG POTENTIAL A LITTLE
THERE.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO
5 KNOTS.  MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
MAY SPREAD MID CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JEH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 230753
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
353 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
WAVE TONIGHT THAT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. AFTER SOME WARMING FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WITH CALM WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S CURRENTLY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WITH FROST ADVISORY. ALSO WITH SMALL
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG AS SOME LOW SPOTS AROUND
CENTRAL INDIANA HAVE SEEN VISIBILITIES DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE.

ONCE THE SUN COMES UP FOG AND FROST SHOULD BOTH RAPIDLY BURN OFF.
SUNNY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE DAY UNDER UPPER RIDGING.
BY LATE AFTERNOON THOUGH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND
THESE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WENT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN CONSENSUS BASED ON
GOOD SUNSHINE EARLY AND NEUTRAL TO WARM ADVECTION AT 850.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE BEST
FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. THAT SAID THERE IS STILL SOME UPPER FORCING OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THIS IS ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.
ELSEWHERE JUST BUMPED CLOUD COVER UP A LITTLE. FRIDAY THE MET KEEPS
SOME LOW POPS GOING WITH A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT DON/T
SEE THIS FEATURE IN THE OTHER MODELS SO WILL GO DRY. FRIDAY NIGHT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH BUT THERE IS EVEN LESS MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH AND NO UPPER SUPPORT. THOUGHT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK
DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING CLOSER. FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS FOR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
SATURDAY REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FAIR AND MILD WEATHER WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY BRINGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION.

THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE GFS AND GEMNH
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...WHILE THE 12Z EURO IS
ALMOST A DAY SLOWER BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS
IT CREATES A CUTOFF UPPER LOW. THIS IS OFTEN A BIAS WITH THE
EURO...SO WILL KEEP EVERYTHING MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR NOW.  WILL BEGIN
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST VERY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND THEN GO WITH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE MU CAPES OF 200 TO 400 J/KG TUESDAY...SO WILL MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDER. OTHERWISE WENT WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOST
OTHER PERIODS.  ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE ADVENT MODELS TREND SLOWER.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES SUPER BLEND INITIALIZATION SEEMS A BIT TOO
COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LEANED CLOSER TO A HPC GFS BLEND.
OTHERWISE...SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE MOST OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 23/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHALLOW GROUND FOG TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION
BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL OF
GROUND FOG AT THE OUTLYING TAF SITES FROM 09Z-13Z WHICH MAY
TEMPORARILY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO IFR CATEGORY AT OUTLYING TAF SITES
AND MVFR AT KIND WHERE CITY EFFECT MAY LESSEN FOG POTENTIAL A LITTLE
THERE.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO
5 KNOTS.  MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
MAY SPREAD MID CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JEH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 230753
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
353 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
WAVE TONIGHT THAT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. AFTER SOME WARMING FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WITH CALM WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S CURRENTLY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WITH FROST ADVISORY. ALSO WITH SMALL
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG AS SOME LOW SPOTS AROUND
CENTRAL INDIANA HAVE SEEN VISIBILITIES DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE.

ONCE THE SUN COMES UP FOG AND FROST SHOULD BOTH RAPIDLY BURN OFF.
SUNNY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE DAY UNDER UPPER RIDGING.
BY LATE AFTERNOON THOUGH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND
THESE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WENT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN CONSENSUS BASED ON
GOOD SUNSHINE EARLY AND NEUTRAL TO WARM ADVECTION AT 850.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE BEST
FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. THAT SAID THERE IS STILL SOME UPPER FORCING OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THIS IS ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.
ELSEWHERE JUST BUMPED CLOUD COVER UP A LITTLE. FRIDAY THE MET KEEPS
SOME LOW POPS GOING WITH A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT DON/T
SEE THIS FEATURE IN THE OTHER MODELS SO WILL GO DRY. FRIDAY NIGHT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH BUT THERE IS EVEN LESS MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH AND NO UPPER SUPPORT. THOUGHT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK
DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING CLOSER. FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS FOR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
SATURDAY REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FAIR AND MILD WEATHER WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY BRINGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION.

THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE GFS AND GEMNH
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...WHILE THE 12Z EURO IS
ALMOST A DAY SLOWER BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS
IT CREATES A CUTOFF UPPER LOW. THIS IS OFTEN A BIAS WITH THE
EURO...SO WILL KEEP EVERYTHING MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR NOW.  WILL BEGIN
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST VERY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND THEN GO WITH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE MU CAPES OF 200 TO 400 J/KG TUESDAY...SO WILL MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDER. OTHERWISE WENT WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOST
OTHER PERIODS.  ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE ADVENT MODELS TREND SLOWER.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES SUPER BLEND INITIALIZATION SEEMS A BIT TOO
COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LEANED CLOSER TO A HPC GFS BLEND.
OTHERWISE...SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE MOST OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 23/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHALLOW GROUND FOG TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION
BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL OF
GROUND FOG AT THE OUTLYING TAF SITES FROM 09Z-13Z WHICH MAY
TEMPORARILY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO IFR CATEGORY AT OUTLYING TAF SITES
AND MVFR AT KIND WHERE CITY EFFECT MAY LESSEN FOG POTENTIAL A LITTLE
THERE.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO
5 KNOTS.  MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
MAY SPREAD MID CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JEH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 230451
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1250 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

A WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR DRY AND NEAR AVERAGE
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 936 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATE...
CURRENT IR SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION...SO NO CHANGES TO FORECAST. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT...EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY.

GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COLDER OF
THE MOS NUMBERS...WHICH PUTS LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FROST TO FORM OVERNIGHT. WILL GO WITH A
FROST ADVISORY ALL AREAS.

THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR SOME GROUND FOG NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THURSDAY WILL START OFF SUNNY WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...BUT AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
HOW THICK THESE WILL BE AND HOW THEY WILL IMPACT THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE NEAR SUNSET.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS FEEL CHANCES
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ARE PRETTY LOW.

WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SPRINKLES MENTIONED FARTHER SOUTH. WENT DRY
FAR SOUTH WITH THAT AREA BEING PRETTY FAR FROM MOST FORCING.

AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...BUT A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS PRETTY LIMITED.

WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...FEEL THAT MOISTURE IS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS. ON FRIDAY MAV MOS JUST LOOKS
TOO WARM GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO MET MOS. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

PLEASANT FALL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. EXPECT DRY PLEASANT DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY. AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST...SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
AND DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO DO EXPECT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH 70S IN SOUTHERN
INDIANA POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR MIDWEEK
BUT WITH PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...ONLY EXPECTING TEMPS TO FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY.

SOME GROWING HINTS BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN ESTABLISHING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER BLAST OF AIR
INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
IN THE DAYS TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 23/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHALLOW GROUND FOG TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION
BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL OF
GROUND FOG AT THE OUTLYING TAF SITES FROM 09Z-13Z WHICH MAY
TEMPORARILY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO IFR CATEGORY AT OUTLYING TAF SITES
AND MVFR AT KIND WHERE CITY EFFECT MAY LESSEN FOG POTENTIAL A LITTLE
THERE.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO
5 KNOTS.  MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
MAY SPREAD MID CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 230451
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1250 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

A WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR DRY AND NEAR AVERAGE
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 936 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATE...
CURRENT IR SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION...SO NO CHANGES TO FORECAST. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT...EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY.

GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COLDER OF
THE MOS NUMBERS...WHICH PUTS LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FROST TO FORM OVERNIGHT. WILL GO WITH A
FROST ADVISORY ALL AREAS.

THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR SOME GROUND FOG NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THURSDAY WILL START OFF SUNNY WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...BUT AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
HOW THICK THESE WILL BE AND HOW THEY WILL IMPACT THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE NEAR SUNSET.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS FEEL CHANCES
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ARE PRETTY LOW.

WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SPRINKLES MENTIONED FARTHER SOUTH. WENT DRY
FAR SOUTH WITH THAT AREA BEING PRETTY FAR FROM MOST FORCING.

AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...BUT A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS PRETTY LIMITED.

WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...FEEL THAT MOISTURE IS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS. ON FRIDAY MAV MOS JUST LOOKS
TOO WARM GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO MET MOS. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

PLEASANT FALL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. EXPECT DRY PLEASANT DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY. AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST...SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
AND DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO DO EXPECT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH 70S IN SOUTHERN
INDIANA POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR MIDWEEK
BUT WITH PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...ONLY EXPECTING TEMPS TO FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY.

SOME GROWING HINTS BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN ESTABLISHING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER BLAST OF AIR
INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
IN THE DAYS TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 23/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHALLOW GROUND FOG TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION
BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL OF
GROUND FOG AT THE OUTLYING TAF SITES FROM 09Z-13Z WHICH MAY
TEMPORARILY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO IFR CATEGORY AT OUTLYING TAF SITES
AND MVFR AT KIND WHERE CITY EFFECT MAY LESSEN FOG POTENTIAL A LITTLE
THERE.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO
5 KNOTS.  MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
MAY SPREAD MID CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 230228
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1028 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

A WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR DRY AND NEAR AVERAGE
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 936 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATE...
CURRENT IR SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION...SO NO CHANGES TO FORECAST. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT...EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY.

GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COLDER OF
THE MOS NUMBERS...WHICH PUTS LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FROST TO FORM OVERNIGHT. WILL GO WITH A
FROST ADVISORY ALL AREAS.

THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR SOME GROUND FOG NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THURSDAY WILL START OFF SUNNY WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...BUT AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
HOW THICK THESE WILL BE AND HOW THEY WILL IMPACT THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE NEAR SUNSET.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS FEEL CHANCES
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ARE PRETTY LOW.

WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SPRINKLES MENTIONED FARTHER SOUTH. WENT DRY
FAR SOUTH WITH THAT AREA BEING PRETTY FAR FROM MOST FORCING.

AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...BUT A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS PRETTY LIMITED.

WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...FEEL THAT MOISTURE IS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS. ON FRIDAY MAV MOS JUST LOOKS
TOO WARM GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO MET MOS. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

PLEASANT FALL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. EXPECT DRY PLEASANT DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY. AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST...SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
AND DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO DO EXPECT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH 70S IN SOUTHERN
INDIANA POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR MIDWEEK
BUT WITH PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...ONLY EXPECTING TEMPS TO FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY.

SOME GROWING HINTS BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN ESTABLISHING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER BLAST OF AIR
INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
IN THE DAYS TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 23/0300Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHALLOW GROUND FOG NEAR
DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE HOOSIER STATE THIS EVENING WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS INDICATE DEEP SUBSIDENCE ADVECTING ACROSS
THE AREA. DO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP
AROUND DAYBREAK AS THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR GROUND
LEVEL.

WINDS WILL VEER TO S/SW ON THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. WILL SEE SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF
A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE WITH POSSIBLY SOME THICKER MID LEVEL
CLOUDS BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 230139
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
939 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

A WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR DRY AND NEAR AVERAGE
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 936 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATE...
CURRENT IR SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION...SO NO CHANGES TO FORECAST. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT...EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY.

GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COLDER OF
THE MOS NUMBERS...WHICH PUTS LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FROST TO FORM OVERNIGHT. WILL GO WITH A
FROST ADVISORY ALL AREAS.

THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR SOME GROUND FOG NEAR SUNRISE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THURSDAY WILL START OFF SUNNY WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...BUT AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
HOW THICK THESE WILL BE AND HOW THEY WILL IMPACT THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE NEAR SUNSET.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS FEEL CHANCES
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ARE PRETTY LOW.

WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SPRINKLES MENTIONED FARTHER SOUTH. WENT DRY
FAR SOUTH WITH THAT AREA BEING PRETTY FAR FROM MOST FORCING.

AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...BUT A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS PRETTY LIMITED.

WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...FEEL THAT MOISTURE IS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS. ON FRIDAY MAV MOS JUST LOOKS
TOO WARM GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO MET MOS. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

PLEASANT FALL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. EXPECT DRY PLEASANT DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY. AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST...SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
AND DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO DO EXPECT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH 70S IN SOUTHERN
INDIANA POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR MIDWEEK
BUT WITH PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...ONLY EXPECTING TEMPS TO FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY.

SOME GROWING HINTS BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN ESTABLISHING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER BLAST OF AIR
INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
IN THE DAYS TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 230000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 638 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHALLOW GROUND FOG NEAR
DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE HOOSIER STATE THIS EVENING WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS INDICATE DEEP SUBSIDENCE ADVECTING ACROSS
THE AREA. DO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP
AROUND DAYBREAK AS THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR GROUND
LEVEL.

WINDS WILL VEER TO S/SW ON THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. WILL SEE SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF
A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE WITH POSSIBLY SOME THICKER MID LEVEL
CLOUDS BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 230139
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
939 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

A WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR DRY AND NEAR AVERAGE
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 936 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATE...
CURRENT IR SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION...SO NO CHANGES TO FORECAST. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT...EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY.

GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COLDER OF
THE MOS NUMBERS...WHICH PUTS LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FROST TO FORM OVERNIGHT. WILL GO WITH A
FROST ADVISORY ALL AREAS.

THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR SOME GROUND FOG NEAR SUNRISE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THURSDAY WILL START OFF SUNNY WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...BUT AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
HOW THICK THESE WILL BE AND HOW THEY WILL IMPACT THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE NEAR SUNSET.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS FEEL CHANCES
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ARE PRETTY LOW.

WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SPRINKLES MENTIONED FARTHER SOUTH. WENT DRY
FAR SOUTH WITH THAT AREA BEING PRETTY FAR FROM MOST FORCING.

AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...BUT A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS PRETTY LIMITED.

WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...FEEL THAT MOISTURE IS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS. ON FRIDAY MAV MOS JUST LOOKS
TOO WARM GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO MET MOS. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

PLEASANT FALL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. EXPECT DRY PLEASANT DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY. AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST...SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
AND DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO DO EXPECT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH 70S IN SOUTHERN
INDIANA POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR MIDWEEK
BUT WITH PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...ONLY EXPECTING TEMPS TO FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY.

SOME GROWING HINTS BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN ESTABLISHING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER BLAST OF AIR
INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
IN THE DAYS TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 230000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 638 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHALLOW GROUND FOG NEAR
DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE HOOSIER STATE THIS EVENING WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS INDICATE DEEP SUBSIDENCE ADVECTING ACROSS
THE AREA. DO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP
AROUND DAYBREAK AS THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR GROUND
LEVEL.

WINDS WILL VEER TO S/SW ON THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. WILL SEE SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF
A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE WITH POSSIBLY SOME THICKER MID LEVEL
CLOUDS BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 222238
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
638 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

A WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR DRY AND NEAR AVERAGE
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA IS SLOWLY THINNING
OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY EAST. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
WEST INTO MISSOURI.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT...EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY.

GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COLDER OF
THE MOS NUMBERS...WHICH PUTS LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FROST TO FORM OVERNIGHT. WILL GO WITH A
FROST ADVISORY ALL AREAS.

THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR SOME GROUND FOG NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THURSDAY WILL START OFF SUNNY WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...BUT AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
HOW THICK THESE WILL BE AND HOW THEY WILL IMPACT THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE NEAR SUNSET.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS FEEL CHANCES
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ARE PRETTY LOW.

WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SPRINKLES MENTIONED FARTHER SOUTH. WENT DRY
FAR SOUTH WITH THAT AREA BEING PRETTY FAR FROM MOST FORCING.

AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...BUT A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS PRETTY LIMITED.

WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...FEEL THAT MOISTURE IS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS. ON FRIDAY MAV MOS JUST LOOKS
TOO WARM GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO MET MOS. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

PLEASANT FALL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. EXPECT DRY PLEASANT DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY. AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST...SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
AND DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO DO EXPECT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH 70S IN SOUTHERN
INDIANA POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR MIDWEEK
BUT WITH PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...ONLY EXPECTING TEMPS TO FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY.

SOME GROWING HINTS BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN ESTABLISHING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER BLAST OF AIR
INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
IN THE DAYS TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 230000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 638 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHALLOW GROUND FOG NEAR
DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE HOOSIER STATE THIS EVENING WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS INDICATE DEEP SUBSIDENCE ADVECTING ACROSS
THE AREA. DO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP
AROUND DAYBREAK AS THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR GROUND
LEVEL.

WINDS WILL VEER TO S/SW ON THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. WILL SEE SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF
A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE WITH POSSIBLY SOME THICKER MID LEVEL
CLOUDS BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 222238
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
638 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

A WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR DRY AND NEAR AVERAGE
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA IS SLOWLY THINNING
OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY EAST. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
WEST INTO MISSOURI.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT...EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY.

GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COLDER OF
THE MOS NUMBERS...WHICH PUTS LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FROST TO FORM OVERNIGHT. WILL GO WITH A
FROST ADVISORY ALL AREAS.

THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR SOME GROUND FOG NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THURSDAY WILL START OFF SUNNY WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...BUT AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
HOW THICK THESE WILL BE AND HOW THEY WILL IMPACT THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE NEAR SUNSET.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS FEEL CHANCES
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ARE PRETTY LOW.

WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SPRINKLES MENTIONED FARTHER SOUTH. WENT DRY
FAR SOUTH WITH THAT AREA BEING PRETTY FAR FROM MOST FORCING.

AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...BUT A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS PRETTY LIMITED.

WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...FEEL THAT MOISTURE IS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS. ON FRIDAY MAV MOS JUST LOOKS
TOO WARM GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO MET MOS. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

PLEASANT FALL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. EXPECT DRY PLEASANT DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY. AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST...SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
AND DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO DO EXPECT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH 70S IN SOUTHERN
INDIANA POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR MIDWEEK
BUT WITH PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...ONLY EXPECTING TEMPS TO FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY.

SOME GROWING HINTS BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN ESTABLISHING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER BLAST OF AIR
INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
IN THE DAYS TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 230000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 638 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHALLOW GROUND FOG NEAR
DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE HOOSIER STATE THIS EVENING WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS INDICATE DEEP SUBSIDENCE ADVECTING ACROSS
THE AREA. DO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP
AROUND DAYBREAK AS THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR GROUND
LEVEL.

WINDS WILL VEER TO S/SW ON THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. WILL SEE SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF
A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE WITH POSSIBLY SOME THICKER MID LEVEL
CLOUDS BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









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