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000
FXUS63 KIND 052113
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
413 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A BRIEF
SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING. HIGHS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE WARMEST EXPERIENCED SINCE LATE
NOVEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING AND LATER MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD COME BY THE END OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND
DEEPER SUBSIDENCE SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BY SEVERAL
DEGREES DUE TO THIS AND AND STILL INTACT SNOW PACK. WENT WITH MUCH
COLDER MAV GUIDANCE AS COMPARED TO THE NAME AND EVEN LOWERED THIS
BY CLOSE TO 6 TO 8 DEGREES...RESULTING IN LOWS OF ZERO TO 4 BELOW
ZERO. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST...THEN WEST WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

YIPPEE!!!

FINALLY. A CHANGE FROM THE "WASH...RINSE..AND REPEAT" PATTERN FOR
NEARLY THESE PAST 2 MONTHS OF COLD...THEN SNOW...THEN BITTER COLD
WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORIES....THEN REPEAT.

HOWEVER AS MENTIONED IN A PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION A MUCH
...MUCH...MUCH...WELCOMED CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM (AND
BEYOND!) IS EXPECTED AS CONDITIONS LOOK QUIET AND *DRY* WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS BERMUDA
HIGH-ISH TYPE PATTERN APPEARS TO CARRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS
BRINGING DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THIS
PERIOD!

WARM ADVECTION GETS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH TEMPS STEADILY WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
NEAR 40 BY SATURDAY. A MOS BLEND LOOKED GENERALLY REASONABLE FROM
FRIDAY ON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 210 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND THEN SOAR INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING ALMOST
SPRING LIKE. THE PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH SOME WEAK TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. IT APPEARS ANY PRECIP WITH THIS
WEAK WAVE SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE LATEST
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION HAS COME IN WITH DRY CONDITIONS. AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES INTO THAT UPPER 50S/LOW 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 052000Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

GIVEN THE RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR SOME BKN VFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS AND HEATING WANES...ANY LINGERING CU WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY.

VFR CONTINUES.

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN
THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS AS AIR COLUMN MOISTENS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHERLY AND GRADUALLY
BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF
PERIOD...THEY WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 052113
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
413 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A BRIEF
SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING. HIGHS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE WARMEST EXPERIENCED SINCE LATE
NOVEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING AND LATER MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD COME BY THE END OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND
DEEPER SUBSIDENCE SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BY SEVERAL
DEGREES DUE TO THIS AND AND STILL INTACT SNOW PACK. WENT WITH MUCH
COLDER MAV GUIDANCE AS COMPARED TO THE NAME AND EVEN LOWERED THIS
BY CLOSE TO 6 TO 8 DEGREES...RESULTING IN LOWS OF ZERO TO 4 BELOW
ZERO. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST...THEN WEST WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

YIPPEE!!!

FINALLY. A CHANGE FROM THE "WASH...RINSE..AND REPEAT" PATTERN FOR
NEARLY THESE PAST 2 MONTHS OF COLD...THEN SNOW...THEN BITTER COLD
WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORIES....THEN REPEAT.

HOWEVER AS MENTIONED IN A PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION A MUCH
...MUCH...MUCH...WELCOMED CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM (AND
BEYOND!) IS EXPECTED AS CONDITIONS LOOK QUIET AND *DRY* WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS BERMUDA
HIGH-ISH TYPE PATTERN APPEARS TO CARRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS
BRINGING DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THIS
PERIOD!

WARM ADVECTION GETS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH TEMPS STEADILY WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
NEAR 40 BY SATURDAY. A MOS BLEND LOOKED GENERALLY REASONABLE FROM
FRIDAY ON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 210 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND THEN SOAR INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING ALMOST
SPRING LIKE. THE PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH SOME WEAK TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. IT APPEARS ANY PRECIP WITH THIS
WEAK WAVE SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE LATEST
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION HAS COME IN WITH DRY CONDITIONS. AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES INTO THAT UPPER 50S/LOW 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 052000Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

GIVEN THE RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR SOME BKN VFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS AND HEATING WANES...ANY LINGERING CU WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY.

VFR CONTINUES.

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN
THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS AS AIR COLUMN MOISTENS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHERLY AND GRADUALLY
BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF
PERIOD...THEY WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 052113
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
413 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A BRIEF
SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING. HIGHS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE WARMEST EXPERIENCED SINCE LATE
NOVEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING AND LATER MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD COME BY THE END OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND
DEEPER SUBSIDENCE SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BY SEVERAL
DEGREES DUE TO THIS AND AND STILL INTACT SNOW PACK. WENT WITH MUCH
COLDER MAV GUIDANCE AS COMPARED TO THE NAME AND EVEN LOWERED THIS
BY CLOSE TO 6 TO 8 DEGREES...RESULTING IN LOWS OF ZERO TO 4 BELOW
ZERO. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST...THEN WEST WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

YIPPEE!!!

FINALLY. A CHANGE FROM THE "WASH...RINSE..AND REPEAT" PATTERN FOR
NEARLY THESE PAST 2 MONTHS OF COLD...THEN SNOW...THEN BITTER COLD
WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORIES....THEN REPEAT.

HOWEVER AS MENTIONED IN A PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION A MUCH
...MUCH...MUCH...WELCOMED CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM (AND
BEYOND!) IS EXPECTED AS CONDITIONS LOOK QUIET AND *DRY* WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS BERMUDA
HIGH-ISH TYPE PATTERN APPEARS TO CARRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS
BRINGING DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THIS
PERIOD!

WARM ADVECTION GETS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH TEMPS STEADILY WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
NEAR 40 BY SATURDAY. A MOS BLEND LOOKED GENERALLY REASONABLE FROM
FRIDAY ON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 210 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND THEN SOAR INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING ALMOST
SPRING LIKE. THE PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH SOME WEAK TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. IT APPEARS ANY PRECIP WITH THIS
WEAK WAVE SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE LATEST
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION HAS COME IN WITH DRY CONDITIONS. AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES INTO THAT UPPER 50S/LOW 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 052000Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

GIVEN THE RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR SOME BKN VFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS AND HEATING WANES...ANY LINGERING CU WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY.

VFR CONTINUES.

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN
THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS AS AIR COLUMN MOISTENS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHERLY AND GRADUALLY
BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF
PERIOD...THEY WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 052113
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
413 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A BRIEF
SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING. HIGHS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE WARMEST EXPERIENCED SINCE LATE
NOVEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING AND LATER MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD COME BY THE END OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND
DEEPER SUBSIDENCE SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BY SEVERAL
DEGREES DUE TO THIS AND AND STILL INTACT SNOW PACK. WENT WITH MUCH
COLDER MAV GUIDANCE AS COMPARED TO THE NAME AND EVEN LOWERED THIS
BY CLOSE TO 6 TO 8 DEGREES...RESULTING IN LOWS OF ZERO TO 4 BELOW
ZERO. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST...THEN WEST WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

YIPPEE!!!

FINALLY. A CHANGE FROM THE "WASH...RINSE..AND REPEAT" PATTERN FOR
NEARLY THESE PAST 2 MONTHS OF COLD...THEN SNOW...THEN BITTER COLD
WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORIES....THEN REPEAT.

HOWEVER AS MENTIONED IN A PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION A MUCH
...MUCH...MUCH...WELCOMED CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM (AND
BEYOND!) IS EXPECTED AS CONDITIONS LOOK QUIET AND *DRY* WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS BERMUDA
HIGH-ISH TYPE PATTERN APPEARS TO CARRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS
BRINGING DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THIS
PERIOD!

WARM ADVECTION GETS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH TEMPS STEADILY WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
NEAR 40 BY SATURDAY. A MOS BLEND LOOKED GENERALLY REASONABLE FROM
FRIDAY ON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 210 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND THEN SOAR INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING ALMOST
SPRING LIKE. THE PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH SOME WEAK TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. IT APPEARS ANY PRECIP WITH THIS
WEAK WAVE SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE LATEST
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION HAS COME IN WITH DRY CONDITIONS. AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES INTO THAT UPPER 50S/LOW 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 052000Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

GIVEN THE RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR SOME BKN VFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS AND HEATING WANES...ANY LINGERING CU WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY.

VFR CONTINUES.

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN
THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS AS AIR COLUMN MOISTENS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHERLY AND GRADUALLY
BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF
PERIOD...THEY WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 052105
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
405 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A BRIEF
SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING. HIGHS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE WARMEST EXPERIENCED SINCE LATE
NOVEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING AND LATER MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD COME BY THE END OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND
DEEPER SUBSIDENCE SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BY SEVERAL
DEGREES DUE TO THIS AND AND STILL INTACT SNOW PACK. WENT WITH MUCH
COLDER MAV GUIDANCE AS COMPARED TO THE NAME AND EVEN LOWERED THIS
BY CLOSE TO 6 TO 8 DEGREES...RESULTING IN LOWS OF ZERO TO 4 BELOW
ZERO. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST...THEN WEST WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

YIPPEE!!!

FINALLY. A CHANGE FROM THE "WASH...RINSE..AND REPEAT" PATTERN FOR
NEARLY THESE PAST 2 MONTHS OF COLD...THEN SNOW...THEN BITTER COLD
WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORIES....THEN REPEAT.

HOWEVER AS MENTIONED IN A PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION A MUCH
...MUCH...MUCH...WELCOMED CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM (AND
BEYOND!) IS EXPECTED AS CONDITIONS LOOK QUIET AND *DRY* WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS BERMUDA
HIGH-ISH TYPE PATTERN APPEARS TO CARRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS
BRINGING DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THIS
PERIOD!

WARM ADVECTION GETS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH TEMPS STEADILY WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
NEAR 40 BY SATURDAY. A MOS BLEND LOOKED GENERALLY REASONABLE FROM
FRIDAY ON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 210 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND THEN SOAR INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING ALMOST
SPRING LIKE. THE PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH SOME WEAK TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. IT APPEARS ANY PRECIP WITH THIS
WEAK WAVE SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE LATEST
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION HAS COME IN WITH DRY CONDITIONS. AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES INTO THAT UPPER 50S/LOW 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN
THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS AS AIR COLUMN MOISTENS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHERLY AND GRADUALLY
BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF
PERIOD...THEY WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 052105
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
405 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A BRIEF
SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING. HIGHS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE WARMEST EXPERIENCED SINCE LATE
NOVEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING AND LATER MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD COME BY THE END OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND
DEEPER SUBSIDENCE SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BY SEVERAL
DEGREES DUE TO THIS AND AND STILL INTACT SNOW PACK. WENT WITH MUCH
COLDER MAV GUIDANCE AS COMPARED TO THE NAME AND EVEN LOWERED THIS
BY CLOSE TO 6 TO 8 DEGREES...RESULTING IN LOWS OF ZERO TO 4 BELOW
ZERO. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST...THEN WEST WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

YIPPEE!!!

FINALLY. A CHANGE FROM THE "WASH...RINSE..AND REPEAT" PATTERN FOR
NEARLY THESE PAST 2 MONTHS OF COLD...THEN SNOW...THEN BITTER COLD
WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORIES....THEN REPEAT.

HOWEVER AS MENTIONED IN A PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION A MUCH
...MUCH...MUCH...WELCOMED CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM (AND
BEYOND!) IS EXPECTED AS CONDITIONS LOOK QUIET AND *DRY* WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS BERMUDA
HIGH-ISH TYPE PATTERN APPEARS TO CARRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS
BRINGING DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THIS
PERIOD!

WARM ADVECTION GETS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH TEMPS STEADILY WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
NEAR 40 BY SATURDAY. A MOS BLEND LOOKED GENERALLY REASONABLE FROM
FRIDAY ON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 210 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND THEN SOAR INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING ALMOST
SPRING LIKE. THE PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH SOME WEAK TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. IT APPEARS ANY PRECIP WITH THIS
WEAK WAVE SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE LATEST
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION HAS COME IN WITH DRY CONDITIONS. AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES INTO THAT UPPER 50S/LOW 60S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN
THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS AS AIR COLUMN MOISTENS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHERLY AND GRADUALLY
BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF
PERIOD...THEY WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 051935
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
235 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH A
BRIEF SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING.
HIGHS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE WARMEST EXPERIENCED
SINCE LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SNOW HAS MOVED OUT AND CLEARING HAS WORKED ITS WAY TO ALL BUT
OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES. BY NOON...IT SHOULD
BE SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA.
STILL...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM RISING
MUCH MORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE GRAZING FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER OBS INDICATE HEAVIER SNOWS ARE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE OHIO RIVER.
SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPS WERE PRIMARILY IN THE TEENS AT 08Z.

ALL SHORT RANGE HI-RES GUIDANCE MATCHES UP NICELY WITH CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...WITH SNOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS ALREADY DONE IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...WILL BE CANCELING WITH THE RELEASE OF THE
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL INTRODUCE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 13-14Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
RESIDUAL ISSUES WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS CONTINUING DUE TO SNOW COVERED
AND SLICK ROADWAYS DUE TO THE 2 TO 5 INCHES THAT FELL.

LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER AS IT EXPANDS INTO THE
REGION BY LATE DAY. CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
AND EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW STRATOCU AS A RESULT FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD COME BY THE END OF
THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE
SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS...COMBINATION OF 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT FROM -18 TO -15C
LATER TODAY WITH AREAS OF STRATOCU ALL BUT ENSURE MOST LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS. DAILY
RECORD LOW MAX FOR INDY IS GOING TO BE THREATENED. CURRENT RECORD IS
18 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1960.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY
FOCUSING ON TEMPS.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER RESIDUAL SNOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON. MORE ON THAT BELOW.

A WELCOME CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS LOOK
QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WEAK UPPER WAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PATTERN...THE FIRST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A
SECOND ONE APPROACHING BY EARLY SUNDAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP
WITH THESE SYSTEMS AS FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER DO HAVE A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE BECOMING
TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS THE FIRST SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD STAY UP
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION...EVEN ACROSS AREAS WITH A
FRESHENED SNOW COVER. THIS MAY HOWEVER MANIFEST AS A THICKER STRATUS
AND HAVE BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT.

TEMPS...WIDE VARIANCE IN MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT WHICH IS TO
BE EXPECTED AS MODELS GRAPPLE WITH THE IMPACTS OF THE SNOW COVER.
PREFER TRENDING COLDER AS WE HAVE RECENTLY CONSIDERING A BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO. THIS COULD END UP BEING THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON FOR MANY AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING
AGAINST US. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED...A SUBZERO LOW IN INDY TONIGHT
WOULD BE THE FIRST IN MARCH SINCE MARCH 9 1984. WARM ADVECTION GETS
GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH TEMPS
STEADILY WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 BY SATURDAY.
A MOS BLEND LOOKED GENERALLY REASONABLE FROM FRIDAY ON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 210 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND THEN SOAR INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING ALMOST
SPRING LIKE. THE PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH SOME WEAK TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. IT APPEARS ANY PRECIP WITH THIS
WEAK WAVE SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE LATEST
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION HAS COME IN WITH DRY CONDITIONS. AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES INTO THAT UPPER 50S/LOW 60S RANGE.

&&


.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN
THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS AS AIR COLUMN MOISTENS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHERLY AND GRADUALLY
BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF
PERIOD...THEY WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/MK
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 051935
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
235 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH A
BRIEF SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING.
HIGHS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE WARMEST EXPERIENCED
SINCE LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SNOW HAS MOVED OUT AND CLEARING HAS WORKED ITS WAY TO ALL BUT
OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES. BY NOON...IT SHOULD
BE SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA.
STILL...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM RISING
MUCH MORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE GRAZING FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER OBS INDICATE HEAVIER SNOWS ARE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE OHIO RIVER.
SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPS WERE PRIMARILY IN THE TEENS AT 08Z.

ALL SHORT RANGE HI-RES GUIDANCE MATCHES UP NICELY WITH CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...WITH SNOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS ALREADY DONE IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...WILL BE CANCELING WITH THE RELEASE OF THE
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL INTRODUCE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 13-14Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
RESIDUAL ISSUES WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS CONTINUING DUE TO SNOW COVERED
AND SLICK ROADWAYS DUE TO THE 2 TO 5 INCHES THAT FELL.

LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER AS IT EXPANDS INTO THE
REGION BY LATE DAY. CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
AND EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW STRATOCU AS A RESULT FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD COME BY THE END OF
THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE
SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS...COMBINATION OF 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT FROM -18 TO -15C
LATER TODAY WITH AREAS OF STRATOCU ALL BUT ENSURE MOST LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS. DAILY
RECORD LOW MAX FOR INDY IS GOING TO BE THREATENED. CURRENT RECORD IS
18 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1960.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY
FOCUSING ON TEMPS.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER RESIDUAL SNOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON. MORE ON THAT BELOW.

A WELCOME CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS LOOK
QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WEAK UPPER WAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PATTERN...THE FIRST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A
SECOND ONE APPROACHING BY EARLY SUNDAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP
WITH THESE SYSTEMS AS FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER DO HAVE A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE BECOMING
TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS THE FIRST SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD STAY UP
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION...EVEN ACROSS AREAS WITH A
FRESHENED SNOW COVER. THIS MAY HOWEVER MANIFEST AS A THICKER STRATUS
AND HAVE BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT.

TEMPS...WIDE VARIANCE IN MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT WHICH IS TO
BE EXPECTED AS MODELS GRAPPLE WITH THE IMPACTS OF THE SNOW COVER.
PREFER TRENDING COLDER AS WE HAVE RECENTLY CONSIDERING A BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO. THIS COULD END UP BEING THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON FOR MANY AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING
AGAINST US. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED...A SUBZERO LOW IN INDY TONIGHT
WOULD BE THE FIRST IN MARCH SINCE MARCH 9 1984. WARM ADVECTION GETS
GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH TEMPS
STEADILY WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 BY SATURDAY.
A MOS BLEND LOOKED GENERALLY REASONABLE FROM FRIDAY ON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 210 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND THEN SOAR INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING ALMOST
SPRING LIKE. THE PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH SOME WEAK TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. IT APPEARS ANY PRECIP WITH THIS
WEAK WAVE SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE LATEST
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION HAS COME IN WITH DRY CONDITIONS. AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES INTO THAT UPPER 50S/LOW 60S RANGE.

&&


.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN
THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS AS AIR COLUMN MOISTENS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHERLY AND GRADUALLY
BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF
PERIOD...THEY WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/MK
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 051733
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1233 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH A
BRIEF SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING.
HIGHS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE WARMEST EXPERIENCED
SINCE LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SNOW HAS MOVED OUT AND CLEARING HAS WORKED ITS WAY TO ALL BUT
OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES. BY NOON...IT SHOULD
BE SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA.
STILL...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM RISING
MUCH MORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE GRAZING FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER OBS INDICATE HEAVIER SNOWS ARE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE OHIO RIVER.
SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPS WERE PRIMARILY IN THE TEENS AT 08Z.

ALL SHORT RANGE HI-RES GUIDANCE MATCHES UP NICELY WITH CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...WITH SNOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS ALREADY DONE IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...WILL BE CANCELING WITH THE RELEASE OF THE
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL INTRODUCE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 13-14Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
RESIDUAL ISSUES WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS CONTINUING DUE TO SNOW COVERED
AND SLICK ROADWAYS DUE TO THE 2 TO 5 INCHES THAT FELL.

LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER AS IT EXPANDS INTO THE
REGION BY LATE DAY. CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
AND EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW STRATOCU AS A RESULT FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD COME BY THE END OF
THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE
SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS...COMBINATION OF 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT FROM -18 TO -15C
LATER TODAY WITH AREAS OF STRATOCU ALL BUT ENSURE MOST LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS. DAILY
RECORD LOW MAX FOR INDY IS GOING TO BE THREATENED. CURRENT RECORD IS
18 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1960.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY
FOCUSING ON TEMPS.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER RESIDUAL SNOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON. MORE ON THAT BELOW.

A WELCOME CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS LOOK
QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WEAK UPPER WAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PATTERN...THE FIRST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A
SECOND ONE APPROACHING BY EARLY SUNDAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP
WITH THESE SYSTEMS AS FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER DO HAVE A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE BECOMING
TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS THE FIRST SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD STAY UP
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION...EVEN ACROSS AREAS WITH A
FRESHENED SNOW COVER. THIS MAY HOWEVER MANIFEST AS A THICKER STRATUS
AND HAVE BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT.

TEMPS...WIDE VARIANCE IN MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT WHICH IS TO
BE EXPECTED AS MODELS GRAPPLE WITH THE IMPACTS OF THE SNOW COVER.
PREFER TRENDING COLDER AS WE HAVE RECENTLY CONSIDERING A BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO. THIS COULD END UP BEING THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON FOR MANY AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING
AGAINST US. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED...A SUBZERO LOW IN INDY TONIGHT
WOULD BE THE FIRST IN MARCH SINCE MARCH 9 1984. WARM ADVECTION GETS
GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH TEMPS
STEADILY WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 BY SATURDAY.
A MOS BLEND LOOKED GENERALLY REASONABLE FROM FRIDAY ON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT MAY BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN
THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS AS AIR COLUMN MOISTENS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHERLY AND GRADUALLY
BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF
PERIOD...THEY WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/MK
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 051733
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1233 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH A
BRIEF SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING.
HIGHS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE WARMEST EXPERIENCED
SINCE LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SNOW HAS MOVED OUT AND CLEARING HAS WORKED ITS WAY TO ALL BUT
OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES. BY NOON...IT SHOULD
BE SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA.
STILL...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM RISING
MUCH MORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE GRAZING FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER OBS INDICATE HEAVIER SNOWS ARE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE OHIO RIVER.
SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPS WERE PRIMARILY IN THE TEENS AT 08Z.

ALL SHORT RANGE HI-RES GUIDANCE MATCHES UP NICELY WITH CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...WITH SNOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS ALREADY DONE IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...WILL BE CANCELING WITH THE RELEASE OF THE
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL INTRODUCE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 13-14Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
RESIDUAL ISSUES WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS CONTINUING DUE TO SNOW COVERED
AND SLICK ROADWAYS DUE TO THE 2 TO 5 INCHES THAT FELL.

LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER AS IT EXPANDS INTO THE
REGION BY LATE DAY. CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
AND EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW STRATOCU AS A RESULT FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD COME BY THE END OF
THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE
SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS...COMBINATION OF 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT FROM -18 TO -15C
LATER TODAY WITH AREAS OF STRATOCU ALL BUT ENSURE MOST LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS. DAILY
RECORD LOW MAX FOR INDY IS GOING TO BE THREATENED. CURRENT RECORD IS
18 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1960.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY
FOCUSING ON TEMPS.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER RESIDUAL SNOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON. MORE ON THAT BELOW.

A WELCOME CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS LOOK
QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WEAK UPPER WAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PATTERN...THE FIRST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A
SECOND ONE APPROACHING BY EARLY SUNDAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP
WITH THESE SYSTEMS AS FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER DO HAVE A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE BECOMING
TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS THE FIRST SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD STAY UP
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION...EVEN ACROSS AREAS WITH A
FRESHENED SNOW COVER. THIS MAY HOWEVER MANIFEST AS A THICKER STRATUS
AND HAVE BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT.

TEMPS...WIDE VARIANCE IN MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT WHICH IS TO
BE EXPECTED AS MODELS GRAPPLE WITH THE IMPACTS OF THE SNOW COVER.
PREFER TRENDING COLDER AS WE HAVE RECENTLY CONSIDERING A BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO. THIS COULD END UP BEING THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON FOR MANY AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING
AGAINST US. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED...A SUBZERO LOW IN INDY TONIGHT
WOULD BE THE FIRST IN MARCH SINCE MARCH 9 1984. WARM ADVECTION GETS
GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH TEMPS
STEADILY WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 BY SATURDAY.
A MOS BLEND LOOKED GENERALLY REASONABLE FROM FRIDAY ON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT MAY BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN
THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS AS AIR COLUMN MOISTENS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHERLY AND GRADUALLY
BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF
PERIOD...THEY WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/MK
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 051614
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1111 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH A
BRIEF SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING.
HIGHS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE WARMEST EXPERIENCED
SINCE LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SNOW HAS MOVED OUT AND CLEARING HAS WORKED ITS WAY TO ALL BUT
OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES. BY NOON...IT SHOULD
BE SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA.
STILL...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM RISING
MUCH MORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE GRAZING FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER OBS INDICATE HEAVIER SNOWS ARE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE OHIO RIVER.
SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPS WERE PRIMARILY IN THE TEENS AT 08Z.

ALL SHORT RANGE HI-RES GUIDANCE MATCHES UP NICELY WITH CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...WITH SNOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS ALREADY DONE IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...WILL BE CANCELING WITH THE RELEASE OF THE
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL INTRODUCE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 13-14Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
RESIDUAL ISSUES WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS CONTINUING DUE TO SNOW COVERED
AND SLICK ROADWAYS DUE TO THE 2 TO 5 INCHES THAT FELL.

LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER AS IT EXPANDS INTO THE
REGION BY LATE DAY. CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
AND EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW STRATOCU AS A RESULT FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD COME BY THE END OF
THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE
SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS...COMBINATION OF 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT FROM -18 TO -15C
LATER TODAY WITH AREAS OF STRATOCU ALL BUT ENSURE MOST LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS. DAILY
RECORD LOW MAX FOR INDY IS GOING TO BE THREATENED. CURRENT RECORD IS
18 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1960.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY
FOCUSING ON TEMPS.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER RESIDUAL SNOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON. MORE ON THAT BELOW.

A WELCOME CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS LOOK
QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WEAK UPPER WAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PATTERN...THE FIRST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A
SECOND ONE APPROACHING BY EARLY SUNDAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP
WITH THESE SYSTEMS AS FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER DO HAVE A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE BECOMING
TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS THE FIRST SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD STAY UP
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION...EVEN ACROSS AREAS WITH A
FRESHENED SNOW COVER. THIS MAY HOWEVER MANIFEST AS A THICKER STRATUS
AND HAVE BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT.

TEMPS...WIDE VARIANCE IN MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT WHICH IS TO
BE EXPECTED AS MODELS GRAPPLE WITH THE IMPACTS OF THE SNOW COVER.
PREFER TRENDING COLDER AS WE HAVE RECENTLY CONSIDERING A BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO. THIS COULD END UP BEING THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON FOR MANY AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING
AGAINST US. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED...A SUBZERO LOW IN INDY TONIGHT
WOULD BE THE FIRST IN MARCH SINCE MARCH 9 1984. WARM ADVECTION GETS
GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH TEMPS
STEADILY WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 BY SATURDAY.
A MOS BLEND LOOKED GENERALLY REASONABLE FROM FRIDAY ON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT MAY BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 910 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CEILINGS ABOVE 050 SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN OUT BY THE LATE MORNING
HOURS.

850MB THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER
TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD COVER BASED 030-035 LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF
CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
KLAF/KIND/KBMG AREAS.

SURFACE WIND GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/MK
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 051614
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1111 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH A
BRIEF SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING.
HIGHS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE WARMEST EXPERIENCED
SINCE LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SNOW HAS MOVED OUT AND CLEARING HAS WORKED ITS WAY TO ALL BUT
OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES. BY NOON...IT SHOULD
BE SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA.
STILL...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM RISING
MUCH MORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE GRAZING FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER OBS INDICATE HEAVIER SNOWS ARE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE OHIO RIVER.
SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPS WERE PRIMARILY IN THE TEENS AT 08Z.

ALL SHORT RANGE HI-RES GUIDANCE MATCHES UP NICELY WITH CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...WITH SNOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS ALREADY DONE IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...WILL BE CANCELING WITH THE RELEASE OF THE
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL INTRODUCE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 13-14Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
RESIDUAL ISSUES WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS CONTINUING DUE TO SNOW COVERED
AND SLICK ROADWAYS DUE TO THE 2 TO 5 INCHES THAT FELL.

LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER AS IT EXPANDS INTO THE
REGION BY LATE DAY. CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
AND EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW STRATOCU AS A RESULT FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD COME BY THE END OF
THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE
SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS...COMBINATION OF 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT FROM -18 TO -15C
LATER TODAY WITH AREAS OF STRATOCU ALL BUT ENSURE MOST LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS. DAILY
RECORD LOW MAX FOR INDY IS GOING TO BE THREATENED. CURRENT RECORD IS
18 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1960.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY
FOCUSING ON TEMPS.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER RESIDUAL SNOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON. MORE ON THAT BELOW.

A WELCOME CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS LOOK
QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WEAK UPPER WAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PATTERN...THE FIRST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A
SECOND ONE APPROACHING BY EARLY SUNDAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP
WITH THESE SYSTEMS AS FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER DO HAVE A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE BECOMING
TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS THE FIRST SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD STAY UP
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION...EVEN ACROSS AREAS WITH A
FRESHENED SNOW COVER. THIS MAY HOWEVER MANIFEST AS A THICKER STRATUS
AND HAVE BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT.

TEMPS...WIDE VARIANCE IN MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT WHICH IS TO
BE EXPECTED AS MODELS GRAPPLE WITH THE IMPACTS OF THE SNOW COVER.
PREFER TRENDING COLDER AS WE HAVE RECENTLY CONSIDERING A BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO. THIS COULD END UP BEING THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON FOR MANY AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING
AGAINST US. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED...A SUBZERO LOW IN INDY TONIGHT
WOULD BE THE FIRST IN MARCH SINCE MARCH 9 1984. WARM ADVECTION GETS
GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH TEMPS
STEADILY WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 BY SATURDAY.
A MOS BLEND LOOKED GENERALLY REASONABLE FROM FRIDAY ON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT MAY BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 910 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CEILINGS ABOVE 050 SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN OUT BY THE LATE MORNING
HOURS.

850MB THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER
TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD COVER BASED 030-035 LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF
CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
KLAF/KIND/KBMG AREAS.

SURFACE WIND GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/MK
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 051614
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1111 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH A
BRIEF SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING.
HIGHS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE WARMEST EXPERIENCED
SINCE LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SNOW HAS MOVED OUT AND CLEARING HAS WORKED ITS WAY TO ALL BUT
OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES. BY NOON...IT SHOULD
BE SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA.
STILL...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM RISING
MUCH MORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE GRAZING FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER OBS INDICATE HEAVIER SNOWS ARE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE OHIO RIVER.
SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPS WERE PRIMARILY IN THE TEENS AT 08Z.

ALL SHORT RANGE HI-RES GUIDANCE MATCHES UP NICELY WITH CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...WITH SNOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS ALREADY DONE IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...WILL BE CANCELING WITH THE RELEASE OF THE
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL INTRODUCE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 13-14Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
RESIDUAL ISSUES WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS CONTINUING DUE TO SNOW COVERED
AND SLICK ROADWAYS DUE TO THE 2 TO 5 INCHES THAT FELL.

LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER AS IT EXPANDS INTO THE
REGION BY LATE DAY. CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
AND EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW STRATOCU AS A RESULT FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD COME BY THE END OF
THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE
SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS...COMBINATION OF 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT FROM -18 TO -15C
LATER TODAY WITH AREAS OF STRATOCU ALL BUT ENSURE MOST LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS. DAILY
RECORD LOW MAX FOR INDY IS GOING TO BE THREATENED. CURRENT RECORD IS
18 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1960.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY
FOCUSING ON TEMPS.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER RESIDUAL SNOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON. MORE ON THAT BELOW.

A WELCOME CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS LOOK
QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WEAK UPPER WAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PATTERN...THE FIRST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A
SECOND ONE APPROACHING BY EARLY SUNDAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP
WITH THESE SYSTEMS AS FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER DO HAVE A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE BECOMING
TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS THE FIRST SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD STAY UP
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION...EVEN ACROSS AREAS WITH A
FRESHENED SNOW COVER. THIS MAY HOWEVER MANIFEST AS A THICKER STRATUS
AND HAVE BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT.

TEMPS...WIDE VARIANCE IN MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT WHICH IS TO
BE EXPECTED AS MODELS GRAPPLE WITH THE IMPACTS OF THE SNOW COVER.
PREFER TRENDING COLDER AS WE HAVE RECENTLY CONSIDERING A BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO. THIS COULD END UP BEING THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON FOR MANY AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING
AGAINST US. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED...A SUBZERO LOW IN INDY TONIGHT
WOULD BE THE FIRST IN MARCH SINCE MARCH 9 1984. WARM ADVECTION GETS
GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH TEMPS
STEADILY WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 BY SATURDAY.
A MOS BLEND LOOKED GENERALLY REASONABLE FROM FRIDAY ON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT MAY BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 910 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CEILINGS ABOVE 050 SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN OUT BY THE LATE MORNING
HOURS.

850MB THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER
TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD COVER BASED 030-035 LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF
CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
KLAF/KIND/KBMG AREAS.

SURFACE WIND GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/MK
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 051614
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1111 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH A
BRIEF SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING.
HIGHS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE WARMEST EXPERIENCED
SINCE LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SNOW HAS MOVED OUT AND CLEARING HAS WORKED ITS WAY TO ALL BUT
OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES. BY NOON...IT SHOULD
BE SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA.
STILL...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM RISING
MUCH MORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE GRAZING FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER OBS INDICATE HEAVIER SNOWS ARE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE OHIO RIVER.
SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPS WERE PRIMARILY IN THE TEENS AT 08Z.

ALL SHORT RANGE HI-RES GUIDANCE MATCHES UP NICELY WITH CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...WITH SNOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS ALREADY DONE IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...WILL BE CANCELING WITH THE RELEASE OF THE
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL INTRODUCE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 13-14Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
RESIDUAL ISSUES WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS CONTINUING DUE TO SNOW COVERED
AND SLICK ROADWAYS DUE TO THE 2 TO 5 INCHES THAT FELL.

LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER AS IT EXPANDS INTO THE
REGION BY LATE DAY. CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
AND EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW STRATOCU AS A RESULT FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD COME BY THE END OF
THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE
SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS...COMBINATION OF 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT FROM -18 TO -15C
LATER TODAY WITH AREAS OF STRATOCU ALL BUT ENSURE MOST LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS. DAILY
RECORD LOW MAX FOR INDY IS GOING TO BE THREATENED. CURRENT RECORD IS
18 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1960.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY
FOCUSING ON TEMPS.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER RESIDUAL SNOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON. MORE ON THAT BELOW.

A WELCOME CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS LOOK
QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WEAK UPPER WAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PATTERN...THE FIRST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A
SECOND ONE APPROACHING BY EARLY SUNDAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP
WITH THESE SYSTEMS AS FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER DO HAVE A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE BECOMING
TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS THE FIRST SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD STAY UP
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION...EVEN ACROSS AREAS WITH A
FRESHENED SNOW COVER. THIS MAY HOWEVER MANIFEST AS A THICKER STRATUS
AND HAVE BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT.

TEMPS...WIDE VARIANCE IN MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT WHICH IS TO
BE EXPECTED AS MODELS GRAPPLE WITH THE IMPACTS OF THE SNOW COVER.
PREFER TRENDING COLDER AS WE HAVE RECENTLY CONSIDERING A BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO. THIS COULD END UP BEING THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON FOR MANY AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING
AGAINST US. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED...A SUBZERO LOW IN INDY TONIGHT
WOULD BE THE FIRST IN MARCH SINCE MARCH 9 1984. WARM ADVECTION GETS
GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH TEMPS
STEADILY WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 BY SATURDAY.
A MOS BLEND LOOKED GENERALLY REASONABLE FROM FRIDAY ON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT MAY BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 910 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CEILINGS ABOVE 050 SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN OUT BY THE LATE MORNING
HOURS.

850MB THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER
TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD COVER BASED 030-035 LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF
CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
KLAF/KIND/KBMG AREAS.

SURFACE WIND GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/MK
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 051413
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
913 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH A
BRIEF SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING.
HIGHS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE WARMEST EXPERIENCED
SINCE LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE GRAZING FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER OBS INDICATE HEAVIER SNOWS ARE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE OHIO RIVER.
SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPS WERE PRIMARILY IN THE TEENS AT 08Z.

ALL SHORT RANGE HI-RES GUIDANCE MATCHES UP NICELY WITH CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...WITH SNOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS ALREADY DONE IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...WILL BE CANCELING WITH THE RELEASE OF THE
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL INTRODUCE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 13-14Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
RESIDUAL ISSUES WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS CONTINUING DUE TO SNOW COVERED
AND SLICK ROADWAYS DUE TO THE 2 TO 5 INCHES THAT FELL.

LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER AS IT EXPANDS INTO THE
REGION BY LATE DAY. CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
AND EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW STRATOCU AS A RESULT FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD COME BY THE END OF
THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE
SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS...COMBINATION OF 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT FROM -18 TO -15C
LATER TODAY WITH AREAS OF STRATOCU ALL BUT ENSURE MOST LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS. DAILY
RECORD LOW MAX FOR INDY IS GOING TO BE THREATENED. CURRENT RECORD IS
18 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1960.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY
FOCUSING ON TEMPS.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER RESIDUAL SNOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON. MORE ON THAT BELOW.

A WELCOME CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS LOOK
QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WEAK UPPER WAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PATTERN...THE FIRST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A
SECOND ONE APPROACHING BY EARLY SUNDAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP
WITH THESE SYSTEMS AS FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER DO HAVE A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE BECOMING
TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS THE FIRST SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD STAY UP
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION...EVEN ACROSS AREAS WITH A
FRESHENED SNOW COVER. THIS MAY HOWEVER MANIFEST AS A THICKER STRATUS
AND HAVE BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT.

TEMPS...WIDE VARIANCE IN MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT WHICH IS TO
BE EXPECTED AS MODELS GRAPPLE WITH THE IMPACTS OF THE SNOW COVER.
PREFER TRENDING COLDER AS WE HAVE RECENTLY CONSIDERING A BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO. THIS COULD END UP BEING THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON FOR MANY AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING
AGAINST US. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED...A SUBZERO LOW IN INDY TONIGHT
WOULD BE THE FIRST IN MARCH SINCE MARCH 9 1984. WARM ADVECTION GETS
GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH TEMPS
STEADILY WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 BY SATURDAY. A
MOS BLEND LOOKED GENERALLY REASONABLE FROM FRIDAY ON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT MAY BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 910 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CEILINGS ABOVE 050 SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN OUT BY THE LATE MORNING
HOURS.

850MB THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER
TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD COVER BASED 030-035 LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF
CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
KLAF/KIND/KBMG AREAS.

SURFACE WIND GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 051413
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
913 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH A
BRIEF SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING.
HIGHS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE WARMEST EXPERIENCED
SINCE LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE GRAZING FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER OBS INDICATE HEAVIER SNOWS ARE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE OHIO RIVER.
SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPS WERE PRIMARILY IN THE TEENS AT 08Z.

ALL SHORT RANGE HI-RES GUIDANCE MATCHES UP NICELY WITH CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...WITH SNOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS ALREADY DONE IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...WILL BE CANCELING WITH THE RELEASE OF THE
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL INTRODUCE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 13-14Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
RESIDUAL ISSUES WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS CONTINUING DUE TO SNOW COVERED
AND SLICK ROADWAYS DUE TO THE 2 TO 5 INCHES THAT FELL.

LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER AS IT EXPANDS INTO THE
REGION BY LATE DAY. CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
AND EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW STRATOCU AS A RESULT FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD COME BY THE END OF
THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE
SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS...COMBINATION OF 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT FROM -18 TO -15C
LATER TODAY WITH AREAS OF STRATOCU ALL BUT ENSURE MOST LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS. DAILY
RECORD LOW MAX FOR INDY IS GOING TO BE THREATENED. CURRENT RECORD IS
18 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1960.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY
FOCUSING ON TEMPS.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER RESIDUAL SNOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON. MORE ON THAT BELOW.

A WELCOME CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS LOOK
QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WEAK UPPER WAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PATTERN...THE FIRST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A
SECOND ONE APPROACHING BY EARLY SUNDAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP
WITH THESE SYSTEMS AS FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER DO HAVE A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE BECOMING
TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS THE FIRST SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD STAY UP
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION...EVEN ACROSS AREAS WITH A
FRESHENED SNOW COVER. THIS MAY HOWEVER MANIFEST AS A THICKER STRATUS
AND HAVE BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT.

TEMPS...WIDE VARIANCE IN MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT WHICH IS TO
BE EXPECTED AS MODELS GRAPPLE WITH THE IMPACTS OF THE SNOW COVER.
PREFER TRENDING COLDER AS WE HAVE RECENTLY CONSIDERING A BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO. THIS COULD END UP BEING THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON FOR MANY AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING
AGAINST US. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED...A SUBZERO LOW IN INDY TONIGHT
WOULD BE THE FIRST IN MARCH SINCE MARCH 9 1984. WARM ADVECTION GETS
GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH TEMPS
STEADILY WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 BY SATURDAY. A
MOS BLEND LOOKED GENERALLY REASONABLE FROM FRIDAY ON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT MAY BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 910 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CEILINGS ABOVE 050 SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN OUT BY THE LATE MORNING
HOURS.

850MB THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER
TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD COVER BASED 030-035 LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF
CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
KLAF/KIND/KBMG AREAS.

SURFACE WIND GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 051034
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
532 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH A
BRIEF SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING.
HIGHS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE WARMEST EXPERIENCED
SINCE LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE GRAZING FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER OBS INDICATE HEAVIER SNOWS ARE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE OHIO RIVER.
SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPS WERE PRIMARILY IN THE TEENS AT 08Z.

ALL SHORT RANGE HI-RES GUIDANCE MATCHES UP NICELY WITH CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...WITH SNOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS ALREADY DONE IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...WILL BE CANCELING WITH THE RELEASE OF THE
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL INTRODUCE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 13-14Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
RESIDUAL ISSUES WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS CONTINUING DUE TO SNOW COVERED
AND SLICK ROADWAYS DUE TO THE 2 TO 5 INCHES THAT FELL.

LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER AS IT EXPANDS INTO THE
REGION BY LATE DAY. CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
AND EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW STRATOCU AS A RESULT FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD COME BY THE END OF
THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE
SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS...COMBINATION OF 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT FROM -18 TO -15C
LATER TODAY WITH AREAS OF STRATOCU ALL BUT ENSURE MOST LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS. DAILY
RECORD LOW MAX FOR INDY IS GOING TO BE THREATENED. CURRENT RECORD IS
18 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1960.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY
FOCUSING ON TEMPS.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER RESIDUAL SNOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON. MORE ON THAT BELOW.

A WELCOME CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS LOOK
QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WEAK UPPER WAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PATTERN...THE FIRST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A
SECOND ONE APPROACHING BY EARLY SUNDAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP
WITH THESE SYSTEMS AS FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER DO HAVE A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE BECOMING
TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS THE FIRST SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD STAY UP
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION...EVEN ACROSS AREAS WITH A
FRESHENED SNOW COVER. THIS MAY HOWEVER MANIFEST AS A THICKER STRATUS
AND HAVE BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT.

TEMPS...WIDE VARIANCE IN MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT WHICH IS TO
BE EXPECTED AS MODELS GRAPPLE WITH THE IMPACTS OF THE SNOW COVER.
PREFER TRENDING COLDER AS WE HAVE RECENTLY CONSIDERING A BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO. THIS COULD END UP BEING THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON FOR MANY AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING
AGAINST US. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED...A SUBZERO LOW IN INDY TONIGHT
WOULD BE THE FIRST IN MARCH SINCE MARCH 9 1984. WARM ADVECTION GETS
GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH TEMPS
STEADILY WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 BY SATURDAY. A
MOS BLEND LOOKED GENERALLY REASONABLE FROM FRIDAY ON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT MAY BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 051200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

CEILINGS ABOVE 050 SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN OUT BY THE LATE MORNING
HOURS.

850MB THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER
TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD COVER BASED 030-035 LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF
CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
KLAF/KIND/KBMG AREAS.

SURFACE WIND GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 051034
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
532 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH A
BRIEF SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING.
HIGHS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE WARMEST EXPERIENCED
SINCE LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE GRAZING FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER OBS INDICATE HEAVIER SNOWS ARE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE OHIO RIVER.
SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPS WERE PRIMARILY IN THE TEENS AT 08Z.

ALL SHORT RANGE HI-RES GUIDANCE MATCHES UP NICELY WITH CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...WITH SNOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS ALREADY DONE IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...WILL BE CANCELING WITH THE RELEASE OF THE
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL INTRODUCE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 13-14Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
RESIDUAL ISSUES WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS CONTINUING DUE TO SNOW COVERED
AND SLICK ROADWAYS DUE TO THE 2 TO 5 INCHES THAT FELL.

LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER AS IT EXPANDS INTO THE
REGION BY LATE DAY. CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
AND EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW STRATOCU AS A RESULT FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD COME BY THE END OF
THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE
SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS...COMBINATION OF 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT FROM -18 TO -15C
LATER TODAY WITH AREAS OF STRATOCU ALL BUT ENSURE MOST LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS. DAILY
RECORD LOW MAX FOR INDY IS GOING TO BE THREATENED. CURRENT RECORD IS
18 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1960.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY
FOCUSING ON TEMPS.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER RESIDUAL SNOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON. MORE ON THAT BELOW.

A WELCOME CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS LOOK
QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WEAK UPPER WAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PATTERN...THE FIRST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A
SECOND ONE APPROACHING BY EARLY SUNDAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP
WITH THESE SYSTEMS AS FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER DO HAVE A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE BECOMING
TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS THE FIRST SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD STAY UP
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION...EVEN ACROSS AREAS WITH A
FRESHENED SNOW COVER. THIS MAY HOWEVER MANIFEST AS A THICKER STRATUS
AND HAVE BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT.

TEMPS...WIDE VARIANCE IN MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT WHICH IS TO
BE EXPECTED AS MODELS GRAPPLE WITH THE IMPACTS OF THE SNOW COVER.
PREFER TRENDING COLDER AS WE HAVE RECENTLY CONSIDERING A BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO. THIS COULD END UP BEING THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON FOR MANY AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING
AGAINST US. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED...A SUBZERO LOW IN INDY TONIGHT
WOULD BE THE FIRST IN MARCH SINCE MARCH 9 1984. WARM ADVECTION GETS
GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH TEMPS
STEADILY WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 BY SATURDAY. A
MOS BLEND LOOKED GENERALLY REASONABLE FROM FRIDAY ON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT MAY BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 051200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

CEILINGS ABOVE 050 SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN OUT BY THE LATE MORNING
HOURS.

850MB THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER
TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD COVER BASED 030-035 LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF
CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
KLAF/KIND/KBMG AREAS.

SURFACE WIND GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 051034
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
532 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH A
BRIEF SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING.
HIGHS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE WARMEST EXPERIENCED
SINCE LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE GRAZING FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER OBS INDICATE HEAVIER SNOWS ARE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE OHIO RIVER.
SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPS WERE PRIMARILY IN THE TEENS AT 08Z.

ALL SHORT RANGE HI-RES GUIDANCE MATCHES UP NICELY WITH CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...WITH SNOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS ALREADY DONE IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...WILL BE CANCELING WITH THE RELEASE OF THE
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL INTRODUCE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 13-14Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
RESIDUAL ISSUES WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS CONTINUING DUE TO SNOW COVERED
AND SLICK ROADWAYS DUE TO THE 2 TO 5 INCHES THAT FELL.

LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER AS IT EXPANDS INTO THE
REGION BY LATE DAY. CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
AND EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW STRATOCU AS A RESULT FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD COME BY THE END OF
THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE
SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS...COMBINATION OF 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT FROM -18 TO -15C
LATER TODAY WITH AREAS OF STRATOCU ALL BUT ENSURE MOST LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS. DAILY
RECORD LOW MAX FOR INDY IS GOING TO BE THREATENED. CURRENT RECORD IS
18 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1960.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY
FOCUSING ON TEMPS.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER RESIDUAL SNOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON. MORE ON THAT BELOW.

A WELCOME CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS LOOK
QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WEAK UPPER WAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PATTERN...THE FIRST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A
SECOND ONE APPROACHING BY EARLY SUNDAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP
WITH THESE SYSTEMS AS FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER DO HAVE A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE BECOMING
TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS THE FIRST SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD STAY UP
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION...EVEN ACROSS AREAS WITH A
FRESHENED SNOW COVER. THIS MAY HOWEVER MANIFEST AS A THICKER STRATUS
AND HAVE BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT.

TEMPS...WIDE VARIANCE IN MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT WHICH IS TO
BE EXPECTED AS MODELS GRAPPLE WITH THE IMPACTS OF THE SNOW COVER.
PREFER TRENDING COLDER AS WE HAVE RECENTLY CONSIDERING A BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO. THIS COULD END UP BEING THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON FOR MANY AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING
AGAINST US. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED...A SUBZERO LOW IN INDY TONIGHT
WOULD BE THE FIRST IN MARCH SINCE MARCH 9 1984. WARM ADVECTION GETS
GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH TEMPS
STEADILY WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 BY SATURDAY. A
MOS BLEND LOOKED GENERALLY REASONABLE FROM FRIDAY ON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT MAY BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 051200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

CEILINGS ABOVE 050 SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN OUT BY THE LATE MORNING
HOURS.

850MB THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER
TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD COVER BASED 030-035 LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF
CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
KLAF/KIND/KBMG AREAS.

SURFACE WIND GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 050823
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM...LONG TERM AND AVIATION
SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH A
BRIEF SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING.
HIGHS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE WARMEST EXPERIENCED
SINCE LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE GRAZING FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER OBS INDICATE HEAVIER SNOWS ARE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE OHIO RIVER.
SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPS WERE PRIMARILY IN THE TEENS AT 08Z.

ALL SHORT RANGE HI-RES GUIDANCE MATCHES UP NICELY WITH CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...WITH SNOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS ALREADY DONE IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...WILL BE CANCELING WITH THE RELEASE OF THE
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL INTRODUCE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 13-14Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
RESIDUAL ISSUES WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS CONTINUING DUE TO SNOW COVERED
AND SLICK ROADWAYS DUE TO THE 2 TO 5 INCHES THAT FELL.

LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER AS IT EXPANDS INTO THE
REGION BY LATE DAY. CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
AND EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW STRATOCU AS A RESULT FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD COME BY THE END OF
THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE
SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS...COMBINATION OF 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT FROM -18 TO -15C
LATER TODAY WITH AREAS OF STRATOCU ALL BUT ENSURE MOST LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS. DAILY
RECORD LOW MAX FOR INDY IS GOING TO BE THREATENED. CURRENT RECORD IS
18 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1960.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY
FOCUSING ON TEMPS.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER RESIDUAL SNOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON. MORE ON THAT BELOW.

A WELCOME CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS LOOK
QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WEAK UPPER WAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PATTERN...THE FIRST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A
SECOND ONE APPROACHING BY EARLY SUNDAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP
WITH THESE SYSTEMS AS FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER DO HAVE A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE BECOMING
TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS THE FIRST SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD STAY UP
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION...EVEN ACROSS AREAS WITH A
FRESHENED SNOW COVER. THIS MAY HOWEVER MANIFEST AS A THICKER STRATUS
AND HAVE BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT.

TEMPS...WIDE VARIANCE IN MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT WHICH IS TO
BE EXPECTED AS MODELS GRAPPLE WITH THE IMPACTS OF THE SNOW COVER.
PREFER TRENDING COLDER AS WE HAVE RECENTLY CONSIDERING A BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO. THIS COULD END UP BEING THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON FOR MANY AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING
AGAINST US. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED...A SUBZERO LOW IN INDY TONIGHT
WOULD BE THE FIRST IN MARCH SINCE MARCH 9 1984. WARM ADVECTION GETS
GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH TEMPS
STEADILY WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 BY SATURDAY. A
MOS BLEND LOOKED GENERALLY REASONABLE FROM FRIDAY ON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT MAY BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO 06Z FORECAST.

06Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY SOME CIRRUS AND WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 7-12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18 KTS POSSIBLE FOR A
COUPLE HOURS AT KLAF. INCLUDED SOME BKN MVFR STRATOCU AT ALL SITES
BUT KLAF IN THE AFTERNOON WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
BIT OF LIFT FROM AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH. AFTER THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS AND A LITTLE CIRRUS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...CP/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 050823
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM...LONG TERM AND AVIATION
SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH A
BRIEF SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING.
HIGHS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE WARMEST EXPERIENCED
SINCE LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE GRAZING FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER OBS INDICATE HEAVIER SNOWS ARE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE OHIO RIVER.
SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPS WERE PRIMARILY IN THE TEENS AT 08Z.

ALL SHORT RANGE HI-RES GUIDANCE MATCHES UP NICELY WITH CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...WITH SNOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS ALREADY DONE IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...WILL BE CANCELING WITH THE RELEASE OF THE
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL INTRODUCE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 13-14Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
RESIDUAL ISSUES WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS CONTINUING DUE TO SNOW COVERED
AND SLICK ROADWAYS DUE TO THE 2 TO 5 INCHES THAT FELL.

LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER AS IT EXPANDS INTO THE
REGION BY LATE DAY. CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
AND EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW STRATOCU AS A RESULT FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD COME BY THE END OF
THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE
SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS...COMBINATION OF 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT FROM -18 TO -15C
LATER TODAY WITH AREAS OF STRATOCU ALL BUT ENSURE MOST LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS. DAILY
RECORD LOW MAX FOR INDY IS GOING TO BE THREATENED. CURRENT RECORD IS
18 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1960.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY
FOCUSING ON TEMPS.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER RESIDUAL SNOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON. MORE ON THAT BELOW.

A WELCOME CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS LOOK
QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WEAK UPPER WAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PATTERN...THE FIRST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A
SECOND ONE APPROACHING BY EARLY SUNDAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP
WITH THESE SYSTEMS AS FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER DO HAVE A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE BECOMING
TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS THE FIRST SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD STAY UP
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION...EVEN ACROSS AREAS WITH A
FRESHENED SNOW COVER. THIS MAY HOWEVER MANIFEST AS A THICKER STRATUS
AND HAVE BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT.

TEMPS...WIDE VARIANCE IN MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT WHICH IS TO
BE EXPECTED AS MODELS GRAPPLE WITH THE IMPACTS OF THE SNOW COVER.
PREFER TRENDING COLDER AS WE HAVE RECENTLY CONSIDERING A BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO. THIS COULD END UP BEING THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON FOR MANY AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING
AGAINST US. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED...A SUBZERO LOW IN INDY TONIGHT
WOULD BE THE FIRST IN MARCH SINCE MARCH 9 1984. WARM ADVECTION GETS
GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH TEMPS
STEADILY WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 BY SATURDAY. A
MOS BLEND LOOKED GENERALLY REASONABLE FROM FRIDAY ON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT MAY BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO 06Z FORECAST.

06Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY SOME CIRRUS AND WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 7-12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18 KTS POSSIBLE FOR A
COUPLE HOURS AT KLAF. INCLUDED SOME BKN MVFR STRATOCU AT ALL SITES
BUT KLAF IN THE AFTERNOON WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
BIT OF LIFT FROM AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH. AFTER THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS AND A LITTLE CIRRUS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...CP/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 050823
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM...LONG TERM AND AVIATION
SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH A
BRIEF SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING.
HIGHS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE WARMEST EXPERIENCED
SINCE LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE GRAZING FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER OBS INDICATE HEAVIER SNOWS ARE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE OHIO RIVER.
SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPS WERE PRIMARILY IN THE TEENS AT 08Z.

ALL SHORT RANGE HI-RES GUIDANCE MATCHES UP NICELY WITH CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...WITH SNOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS ALREADY DONE IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...WILL BE CANCELING WITH THE RELEASE OF THE
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL INTRODUCE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 13-14Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
RESIDUAL ISSUES WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS CONTINUING DUE TO SNOW COVERED
AND SLICK ROADWAYS DUE TO THE 2 TO 5 INCHES THAT FELL.

LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER AS IT EXPANDS INTO THE
REGION BY LATE DAY. CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
AND EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW STRATOCU AS A RESULT FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING SHOULD COME BY THE END OF
THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE
SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS...COMBINATION OF 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT FROM -18 TO -15C
LATER TODAY WITH AREAS OF STRATOCU ALL BUT ENSURE MOST LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER MAVMOS. DAILY
RECORD LOW MAX FOR INDY IS GOING TO BE THREATENED. CURRENT RECORD IS
18 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1960.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY
FOCUSING ON TEMPS.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER RESIDUAL SNOW
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON. MORE ON THAT BELOW.

A WELCOME CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS LOOK
QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WEAK UPPER WAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PATTERN...THE FIRST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A
SECOND ONE APPROACHING BY EARLY SUNDAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP
WITH THESE SYSTEMS AS FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER DO HAVE A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE BECOMING
TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS THE FIRST SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD STAY UP
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION...EVEN ACROSS AREAS WITH A
FRESHENED SNOW COVER. THIS MAY HOWEVER MANIFEST AS A THICKER STRATUS
AND HAVE BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT.

TEMPS...WIDE VARIANCE IN MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT WHICH IS TO
BE EXPECTED AS MODELS GRAPPLE WITH THE IMPACTS OF THE SNOW COVER.
PREFER TRENDING COLDER AS WE HAVE RECENTLY CONSIDERING A BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO. THIS COULD END UP BEING THE LAST
SUBZERO NIGHT OF THE SEASON FOR MANY AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING
AGAINST US. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED...A SUBZERO LOW IN INDY TONIGHT
WOULD BE THE FIRST IN MARCH SINCE MARCH 9 1984. WARM ADVECTION GETS
GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH TEMPS
STEADILY WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 BY SATURDAY. A
MOS BLEND LOOKED GENERALLY REASONABLE FROM FRIDAY ON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT MAY BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO 06Z FORECAST.

06Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY SOME CIRRUS AND WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 7-12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18 KTS POSSIBLE FOR A
COUPLE HOURS AT KLAF. INCLUDED SOME BKN MVFR STRATOCU AT ALL SITES
BUT KLAF IN THE AFTERNOON WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
BIT OF LIFT FROM AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH. AFTER THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS AND A LITTLE CIRRUS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...CP/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 050439
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1139 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AND THUS SIGNIFICANT
VARIATION COULD OCCUR WITHIN A VERY SHORT DISTANCE. BEYOND
TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE VERY COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 929 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STRETCHED FROM CAROLINAS INTO ALABAMA AND SW TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW A PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TO POINTS NORTHEAST. NATIONAL RADAR DATA CONTINUES TO
SHOW PRECIP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH IN
PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD...PUSHING THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FARTHER EAST AS
WELL. FURTHERMORE THE DRY AND COLD SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...ENDING THE PRECIP THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW GRADUAL
DRYING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW GOOD
SUBSIDENCE ARRIVING TOWARD 12Z. THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DRY
FORECAST BY 12Z ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONGOING TEMPS LOOK OK
GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE SIGNIFICANT FOCUS.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS REQUIRED SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TWEAKS...ESPECIALLY ON MIN TEMPS WITH A STILL FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES
ARE IN PLAY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED
ON TEN OTHER OCCASIONS OF RECORD AT INDIANAPOLIS IN MARCH...AND NOT
SINCE 9 MARCH 1984.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
REGIONAL SOFTWARE IS ACCEPTED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE THE INITIALIZATION WILL VERIFY.

ALSO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC FIELDS...THEIR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. IN
A SENSE IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH VERIFIES BETTER...WE CAN EXPECT THE
SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY SOME CIRRUS AND WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 7-12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18 KTS POSSIBLE FOR A
COUPLE HOURS AT KLAF. INCLUDED SOME BKN MVFR STRATOCU AT ALL SITES
BUT KLAF IN THE AFTERNOON WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
BIT OF LIFT FROM AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH. AFTER THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS AND A LITTLE CIRRUS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 050439
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1139 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AND THUS SIGNIFICANT
VARIATION COULD OCCUR WITHIN A VERY SHORT DISTANCE. BEYOND
TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE VERY COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 929 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STRETCHED FROM CAROLINAS INTO ALABAMA AND SW TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW A PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TO POINTS NORTHEAST. NATIONAL RADAR DATA CONTINUES TO
SHOW PRECIP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH IN
PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD...PUSHING THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FARTHER EAST AS
WELL. FURTHERMORE THE DRY AND COLD SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...ENDING THE PRECIP THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW GRADUAL
DRYING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW GOOD
SUBSIDENCE ARRIVING TOWARD 12Z. THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DRY
FORECAST BY 12Z ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONGOING TEMPS LOOK OK
GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE SIGNIFICANT FOCUS.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS REQUIRED SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TWEAKS...ESPECIALLY ON MIN TEMPS WITH A STILL FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES
ARE IN PLAY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED
ON TEN OTHER OCCASIONS OF RECORD AT INDIANAPOLIS IN MARCH...AND NOT
SINCE 9 MARCH 1984.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
REGIONAL SOFTWARE IS ACCEPTED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE THE INITIALIZATION WILL VERIFY.

ALSO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC FIELDS...THEIR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. IN
A SENSE IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH VERIFIES BETTER...WE CAN EXPECT THE
SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY SOME CIRRUS AND WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 7-12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18 KTS POSSIBLE FOR A
COUPLE HOURS AT KLAF. INCLUDED SOME BKN MVFR STRATOCU AT ALL SITES
BUT KLAF IN THE AFTERNOON WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
BIT OF LIFT FROM AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH. AFTER THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS AND A LITTLE CIRRUS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 050250
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
950 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AND THUS SIGNIFICANT
VARIATION COULD OCCUR WITHIN A VERY SHORT DISTANCE. BEYOND
TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE VERY COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 929 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STRETCHED FROM CAROLINAS INTO ALABAMA AND SW TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW A PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TO POINTS NORTHEAST. NATIONAL RADAR DATA CONTINUES TO
SHOW PRECIP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH IN
PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD...PUSHING THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FARTHER EAST AS
WELL. FURTHERMORE THE DRY AND COLD SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...ENDING THE PRECIP THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW GRADUAL
DRYING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW GOOD
SUBSIDENCE ARRIVING TOWARD 12Z. THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DRY
FORECAST BY 12Z ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONGOING TEMPS LOOK OK
GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE SIGNIFICANT FOCUS.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS REQUIRED SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TWEAKS...ESPECIALLY ON MIN TEMPS WITH A STILL FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES
ARE IN PLAY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED
ON TEN OTHER OCCASIONS OF RECORD AT INDIANAPOLIS IN MARCH...AND NOT
SINCE 9 MARCH 1984.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
REGIONAL SOFTWARE IS ACCEPTED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE THE INITIALIZATION WILL VERIFY.

ALSO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC FIELDS...THEIR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. IN
A SENSE IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH VERIFIES BETTER...WE CAN EXPECT THE
SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 917 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE SITES AND WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A
FLURRY AT KBMG SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AT ALL THE
SITES. AT KLAF EXPECT TO SEE NOTHING BUT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ALL THE SITES SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH TIME
HEIGHTS SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA...COULD SEE SOME
MVFR STRATOCU DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AT ALL BUT KLAF WHICH
WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE HIGH.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 050250
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
950 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AND THUS SIGNIFICANT
VARIATION COULD OCCUR WITHIN A VERY SHORT DISTANCE. BEYOND
TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE VERY COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 929 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STRETCHED FROM CAROLINAS INTO ALABAMA AND SW TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW A PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TO POINTS NORTHEAST. NATIONAL RADAR DATA CONTINUES TO
SHOW PRECIP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH IN
PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD...PUSHING THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FARTHER EAST AS
WELL. FURTHERMORE THE DRY AND COLD SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...ENDING THE PRECIP THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW GRADUAL
DRYING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW GOOD
SUBSIDENCE ARRIVING TOWARD 12Z. THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DRY
FORECAST BY 12Z ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONGOING TEMPS LOOK OK
GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE SIGNIFICANT FOCUS.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS REQUIRED SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TWEAKS...ESPECIALLY ON MIN TEMPS WITH A STILL FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES
ARE IN PLAY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED
ON TEN OTHER OCCASIONS OF RECORD AT INDIANAPOLIS IN MARCH...AND NOT
SINCE 9 MARCH 1984.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
REGIONAL SOFTWARE IS ACCEPTED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE THE INITIALIZATION WILL VERIFY.

ALSO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC FIELDS...THEIR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. IN
A SENSE IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH VERIFIES BETTER...WE CAN EXPECT THE
SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 917 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE SITES AND WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A
FLURRY AT KBMG SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AT ALL THE
SITES. AT KLAF EXPECT TO SEE NOTHING BUT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ALL THE SITES SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH TIME
HEIGHTS SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA...COULD SEE SOME
MVFR STRATOCU DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AT ALL BUT KLAF WHICH
WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE HIGH.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 050250
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
950 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AND THUS SIGNIFICANT
VARIATION COULD OCCUR WITHIN A VERY SHORT DISTANCE. BEYOND
TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE VERY COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 929 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STRETCHED FROM CAROLINAS INTO ALABAMA AND SW TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW A PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TO POINTS NORTHEAST. NATIONAL RADAR DATA CONTINUES TO
SHOW PRECIP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH IN
PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD...PUSHING THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FARTHER EAST AS
WELL. FURTHERMORE THE DRY AND COLD SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...ENDING THE PRECIP THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW GRADUAL
DRYING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW GOOD
SUBSIDENCE ARRIVING TOWARD 12Z. THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DRY
FORECAST BY 12Z ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONGOING TEMPS LOOK OK
GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE SIGNIFICANT FOCUS.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS REQUIRED SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TWEAKS...ESPECIALLY ON MIN TEMPS WITH A STILL FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES
ARE IN PLAY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED
ON TEN OTHER OCCASIONS OF RECORD AT INDIANAPOLIS IN MARCH...AND NOT
SINCE 9 MARCH 1984.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
REGIONAL SOFTWARE IS ACCEPTED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE THE INITIALIZATION WILL VERIFY.

ALSO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC FIELDS...THEIR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. IN
A SENSE IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH VERIFIES BETTER...WE CAN EXPECT THE
SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 917 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE SITES AND WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A
FLURRY AT KBMG SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AT ALL THE
SITES. AT KLAF EXPECT TO SEE NOTHING BUT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ALL THE SITES SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH TIME
HEIGHTS SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA...COULD SEE SOME
MVFR STRATOCU DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AT ALL BUT KLAF WHICH
WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE HIGH.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 050216
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
917 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AND THUS SIGNIFICANT
VARIATION COULD OCCUR WITHIN A VERY SHORT DISTANCE. BEYOND
TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE VERY COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH ESSENTIALLY A NOWCASTING ISSUE AT
THIS POINT. BASED ON HRRR AND NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS...HAVE
TIGHTENED UP GRADIENT EVEN MORE ACROSS THE SOUTH...EFFECTIVELY
DECREASING EXPECTED SNOW HERE IN THE INDY METRO DOWN TO A FEW
TENTHS AT BEST. AMOUNTS ARE BASICALLY THE SAME ACROSS THE
SOUTH...1 TO 3 ALONG A SULLIVAN TO BLOOMINGTON AND GREENSBURG
LINE...AND 2 TO 5 ALONG A VINCENNES TO NORTH VERNON LINE. COULD
SEE ISOLATED SPOTS PUSH 6 ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGE. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS MOVE THE SNOW OUT FASTER LATE
TONIGHT AND HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY FASTER END.

WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING AS IS AS CHANGES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
MINOR AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT COURSE OF ACTION.

TIGHTENED UP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEPICTED BY CONSENSUS TEMPS ON
MINS TONIGHT...WITH MID SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE SIGNIFICANT FOCUS.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS REQUIRED SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TWEAKS...ESPECIALLY ON MIN TEMPS WITH A STILL FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES
ARE IN PLAY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED
ON TEN OTHER OCCASIONS OF RECORD AT INDIANAPOLIS IN MARCH...AND NOT
SINCE 9 MARCH 1984.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
REGIONAL SOFTWARE IS ACCEPTED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE THE INITIALIZATION WILL VERIFY.

ALSO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC FIELDS...THEIR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. IN
A SENSE IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH VERIFIES BETTER...WE CAN EXPECT THE
SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 917 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE SITES AND WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A
FLURRY AT KBMG SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AT ALL THE
SITES. AT KLAF EXPECT TO SEE NOTHING BUT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ALL THE SITES SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH TIME
HEIGHTS SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA...COULD SEE SOME
MVFR STRATOCU DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AT ALL BUT KLAF WHICH
WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE HIGH.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 050216
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
917 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AND THUS SIGNIFICANT
VARIATION COULD OCCUR WITHIN A VERY SHORT DISTANCE. BEYOND
TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE VERY COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH ESSENTIALLY A NOWCASTING ISSUE AT
THIS POINT. BASED ON HRRR AND NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS...HAVE
TIGHTENED UP GRADIENT EVEN MORE ACROSS THE SOUTH...EFFECTIVELY
DECREASING EXPECTED SNOW HERE IN THE INDY METRO DOWN TO A FEW
TENTHS AT BEST. AMOUNTS ARE BASICALLY THE SAME ACROSS THE
SOUTH...1 TO 3 ALONG A SULLIVAN TO BLOOMINGTON AND GREENSBURG
LINE...AND 2 TO 5 ALONG A VINCENNES TO NORTH VERNON LINE. COULD
SEE ISOLATED SPOTS PUSH 6 ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGE. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS MOVE THE SNOW OUT FASTER LATE
TONIGHT AND HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY FASTER END.

WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING AS IS AS CHANGES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
MINOR AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT COURSE OF ACTION.

TIGHTENED UP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEPICTED BY CONSENSUS TEMPS ON
MINS TONIGHT...WITH MID SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE SIGNIFICANT FOCUS.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS REQUIRED SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TWEAKS...ESPECIALLY ON MIN TEMPS WITH A STILL FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES
ARE IN PLAY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED
ON TEN OTHER OCCASIONS OF RECORD AT INDIANAPOLIS IN MARCH...AND NOT
SINCE 9 MARCH 1984.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
REGIONAL SOFTWARE IS ACCEPTED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE THE INITIALIZATION WILL VERIFY.

ALSO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC FIELDS...THEIR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. IN
A SENSE IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH VERIFIES BETTER...WE CAN EXPECT THE
SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 917 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE SITES AND WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A
FLURRY AT KBMG SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AT ALL THE
SITES. AT KLAF EXPECT TO SEE NOTHING BUT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ALL THE SITES SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH TIME
HEIGHTS SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA...COULD SEE SOME
MVFR STRATOCU DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AT ALL BUT KLAF WHICH
WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE HIGH.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 050216
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
917 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AND THUS SIGNIFICANT
VARIATION COULD OCCUR WITHIN A VERY SHORT DISTANCE. BEYOND
TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE VERY COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH ESSENTIALLY A NOWCASTING ISSUE AT
THIS POINT. BASED ON HRRR AND NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS...HAVE
TIGHTENED UP GRADIENT EVEN MORE ACROSS THE SOUTH...EFFECTIVELY
DECREASING EXPECTED SNOW HERE IN THE INDY METRO DOWN TO A FEW
TENTHS AT BEST. AMOUNTS ARE BASICALLY THE SAME ACROSS THE
SOUTH...1 TO 3 ALONG A SULLIVAN TO BLOOMINGTON AND GREENSBURG
LINE...AND 2 TO 5 ALONG A VINCENNES TO NORTH VERNON LINE. COULD
SEE ISOLATED SPOTS PUSH 6 ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGE. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS MOVE THE SNOW OUT FASTER LATE
TONIGHT AND HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY FASTER END.

WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING AS IS AS CHANGES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
MINOR AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT COURSE OF ACTION.

TIGHTENED UP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEPICTED BY CONSENSUS TEMPS ON
MINS TONIGHT...WITH MID SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE SIGNIFICANT FOCUS.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS REQUIRED SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TWEAKS...ESPECIALLY ON MIN TEMPS WITH A STILL FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES
ARE IN PLAY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED
ON TEN OTHER OCCASIONS OF RECORD AT INDIANAPOLIS IN MARCH...AND NOT
SINCE 9 MARCH 1984.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
REGIONAL SOFTWARE IS ACCEPTED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE THE INITIALIZATION WILL VERIFY.

ALSO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC FIELDS...THEIR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. IN
A SENSE IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH VERIFIES BETTER...WE CAN EXPECT THE
SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 917 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE SITES AND WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A
FLURRY AT KBMG SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AT ALL THE
SITES. AT KLAF EXPECT TO SEE NOTHING BUT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ALL THE SITES SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH TIME
HEIGHTS SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA...COULD SEE SOME
MVFR STRATOCU DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AT ALL BUT KLAF WHICH
WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE HIGH.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 050216
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
917 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AND THUS SIGNIFICANT
VARIATION COULD OCCUR WITHIN A VERY SHORT DISTANCE. BEYOND
TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE VERY COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH ESSENTIALLY A NOWCASTING ISSUE AT
THIS POINT. BASED ON HRRR AND NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS...HAVE
TIGHTENED UP GRADIENT EVEN MORE ACROSS THE SOUTH...EFFECTIVELY
DECREASING EXPECTED SNOW HERE IN THE INDY METRO DOWN TO A FEW
TENTHS AT BEST. AMOUNTS ARE BASICALLY THE SAME ACROSS THE
SOUTH...1 TO 3 ALONG A SULLIVAN TO BLOOMINGTON AND GREENSBURG
LINE...AND 2 TO 5 ALONG A VINCENNES TO NORTH VERNON LINE. COULD
SEE ISOLATED SPOTS PUSH 6 ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGE. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS MOVE THE SNOW OUT FASTER LATE
TONIGHT AND HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY FASTER END.

WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING AS IS AS CHANGES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
MINOR AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT COURSE OF ACTION.

TIGHTENED UP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEPICTED BY CONSENSUS TEMPS ON
MINS TONIGHT...WITH MID SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE SIGNIFICANT FOCUS.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS REQUIRED SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TWEAKS...ESPECIALLY ON MIN TEMPS WITH A STILL FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES
ARE IN PLAY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED
ON TEN OTHER OCCASIONS OF RECORD AT INDIANAPOLIS IN MARCH...AND NOT
SINCE 9 MARCH 1984.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
REGIONAL SOFTWARE IS ACCEPTED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE THE INITIALIZATION WILL VERIFY.

ALSO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC FIELDS...THEIR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. IN
A SENSE IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH VERIFIES BETTER...WE CAN EXPECT THE
SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 917 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE SITES AND WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A
FLURRY AT KBMG SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AT ALL THE
SITES. AT KLAF EXPECT TO SEE NOTHING BUT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ALL THE SITES SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH TIME
HEIGHTS SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA...COULD SEE SOME
MVFR STRATOCU DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AT ALL BUT KLAF WHICH
WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE HIGH.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 042326
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
626 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AND THUS SIGNIFICANT
VARIATION COULD OCCUR WITHIN A VERY SHORT DISTANCE. BEYOND
TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE VERY COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH ESSENTIALLY A NOWCASTING ISSUE AT
THIS POINT. BASED ON HRRR AND NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS...HAVE
TIGHTENED UP GRADIENT EVEN MORE ACROSS THE SOUTH...EFFECTIVELY
DECREASING EXPECTED SNOW HERE IN THE INDY METRO DOWN TO A FEW
TENTHS AT BEST. AMOUNTS ARE BASICALLY THE SAME ACROSS THE
SOUTH...1 TO 3 ALONG A SULLIVAN TO BLOOMINGTON AND GREENSBURG
LINE...AND 2 TO 5 ALONG A VINCENNES TO NORTH VERNON LINE. COULD
SEE ISOLATED SPOTS PUSH 6 ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGE. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS MOVE THE SNOW OUT FASTER LATE
TONIGHT AND HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY FASTER END.

WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING AS IS AS CHANGES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
MINOR AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT COURSE OF ACTION.

TIGHTENED UP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEPICTED BY CONSENSUS TEMPS ON
MINS TONIGHT...WITH MID SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE SIGNIFICANT FOCUS.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS REQUIRED SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TWEAKS...ESPECIALLY ON MIN TEMPS WITH A STILL FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES
ARE IN PLAY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED
ON TEN OTHER OCCASIONS OF RECORD AT INDIANAPOLIS IN MARCH...AND NOT
SINCE 9 MARCH 1984.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
REGIONAL SOFTWARE IS ACCEPTED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE THE INITIALIZATION WILL VERIFY.

ALSO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC FIELDS...THEIR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. IN
A SENSE IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH VERIFIES BETTER...WE CAN EXPECT THE
SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 619 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL AT KBMG AND WILL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT CONDITIONS THERE HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO IFR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO MVFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KLAF
EXPECT TO SEE NOTHING BUT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 18 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OFF AND ON
THROUGH AROUND 6Z OR SO. AT KIND EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR WIND GUSTS.
WHILE KIND COULD SEE A FLURRY OR TWO YET DO NOT THINK THERE WILL
BE ANY MORE SNOW THAT WOULD IMPACT CATEGORY...AND HAVE SIMILAR
THOUGHTS ON KHUF. WITH TIME HEIGHTS SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE HIGH
BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA...COULD SEE SOME MVFR STRATOCU DEVELOP WITH
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 042326
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
626 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AND THUS SIGNIFICANT
VARIATION COULD OCCUR WITHIN A VERY SHORT DISTANCE. BEYOND
TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE VERY COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH ESSENTIALLY A NOWCASTING ISSUE AT
THIS POINT. BASED ON HRRR AND NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS...HAVE
TIGHTENED UP GRADIENT EVEN MORE ACROSS THE SOUTH...EFFECTIVELY
DECREASING EXPECTED SNOW HERE IN THE INDY METRO DOWN TO A FEW
TENTHS AT BEST. AMOUNTS ARE BASICALLY THE SAME ACROSS THE
SOUTH...1 TO 3 ALONG A SULLIVAN TO BLOOMINGTON AND GREENSBURG
LINE...AND 2 TO 5 ALONG A VINCENNES TO NORTH VERNON LINE. COULD
SEE ISOLATED SPOTS PUSH 6 ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGE. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS MOVE THE SNOW OUT FASTER LATE
TONIGHT AND HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY FASTER END.

WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING AS IS AS CHANGES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
MINOR AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT COURSE OF ACTION.

TIGHTENED UP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEPICTED BY CONSENSUS TEMPS ON
MINS TONIGHT...WITH MID SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE SIGNIFICANT FOCUS.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS REQUIRED SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TWEAKS...ESPECIALLY ON MIN TEMPS WITH A STILL FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES
ARE IN PLAY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED
ON TEN OTHER OCCASIONS OF RECORD AT INDIANAPOLIS IN MARCH...AND NOT
SINCE 9 MARCH 1984.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
REGIONAL SOFTWARE IS ACCEPTED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE THE INITIALIZATION WILL VERIFY.

ALSO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC FIELDS...THEIR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. IN
A SENSE IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH VERIFIES BETTER...WE CAN EXPECT THE
SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 619 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL AT KBMG AND WILL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT CONDITIONS THERE HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO IFR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO MVFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KLAF
EXPECT TO SEE NOTHING BUT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 18 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OFF AND ON
THROUGH AROUND 6Z OR SO. AT KIND EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR WIND GUSTS.
WHILE KIND COULD SEE A FLURRY OR TWO YET DO NOT THINK THERE WILL
BE ANY MORE SNOW THAT WOULD IMPACT CATEGORY...AND HAVE SIMILAR
THOUGHTS ON KHUF. WITH TIME HEIGHTS SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE HIGH
BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA...COULD SEE SOME MVFR STRATOCU DEVELOP WITH
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 042041
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
341 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AND THUS SIGNIFICANT
VARIATION COULD OCCUR WITHIN A VERY SHORT DISTANCE. BEYOND
TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE VERY COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH ESSENTIALLY A NOWCASTING ISSUE AT
THIS POINT. BASED ON HRRR AND NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS...HAVE
TIGHTENED UP GRADIENT EVEN MORE ACROSS THE SOUTH...EFFECTIVELY
DECREASING EXPECTED SNOW HERE IN THE INDY METRO DOWN TO A FEW
TENTHS AT BEST. AMOUNTS ARE BASICALLY THE SAME ACROSS THE
SOUTH...1 TO 3 ALONG A SULLIVAN TO BLOOMINGTON AND GREENSBURG
LINE...AND 2 TO 5 ALONG A VINCENNES TO NORTH VERNON LINE. COULD
SEE ISOLATED SPOTS PUSH 6 ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGE. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS MOVE THE SNOW OUT FASTER LATE
TONIGHT AND HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY FASTER END.

WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING AS IS AS CHANGES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
MINOR AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT COURSE OF ACTION.

TIGHTENED UP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEPICTED BY CONSENSUS TEMPS ON
MINS TONIGHT...WITH MID SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE SIGNIFICANT FOCUS.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS REQUIRED SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TWEAKS...ESPECIALLY ON MIN TEMPS WITH A STILL FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES
ARE IN PLAY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED
ON TEN OTHER OCCASIONS OF RECORD AT INDIANAPOLIS IN MARCH...AND NOT
SINCE 9 MARCH 1984.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
REGIONAL SOFTWARE IS ACCEPTED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE THE INITIALIZATION WILL VERIFY.

ALSO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC FIELDS...THEIR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. IN
A SENSE IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH VERIFIES BETTER...WE CAN EXPECT THE
SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 032000Z IND TAF/...

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW VIRGA ACROSS THE IND TAF SITE WITH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER IN ON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS.
EXPECT SOME FLURRIES TO STILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS LOWER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO SATURATED THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SNOW OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO
BE MAINLY MVFR...BUT IFR AT TIMES. BY 01Z THE SNOW WILL BE
OVER...CEILINGS WILL BE LOW END VFR...AND VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
UNRESTRICTED.

IN THE NORTH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED
FEET WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...DURING THE NIGHT CLOUDS
WILL RISE TO NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET AND THEN BREAK FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS
DAYTIME AND 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 042041
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
341 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AND THUS SIGNIFICANT
VARIATION COULD OCCUR WITHIN A VERY SHORT DISTANCE. BEYOND
TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE VERY COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH ESSENTIALLY A NOWCASTING ISSUE AT
THIS POINT. BASED ON HRRR AND NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS...HAVE
TIGHTENED UP GRADIENT EVEN MORE ACROSS THE SOUTH...EFFECTIVELY
DECREASING EXPECTED SNOW HERE IN THE INDY METRO DOWN TO A FEW
TENTHS AT BEST. AMOUNTS ARE BASICALLY THE SAME ACROSS THE
SOUTH...1 TO 3 ALONG A SULLIVAN TO BLOOMINGTON AND GREENSBURG
LINE...AND 2 TO 5 ALONG A VINCENNES TO NORTH VERNON LINE. COULD
SEE ISOLATED SPOTS PUSH 6 ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGE. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS MOVE THE SNOW OUT FASTER LATE
TONIGHT AND HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY FASTER END.

WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING AS IS AS CHANGES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
MINOR AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT COURSE OF ACTION.

TIGHTENED UP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEPICTED BY CONSENSUS TEMPS ON
MINS TONIGHT...WITH MID SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE SIGNIFICANT FOCUS.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS REQUIRED SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TWEAKS...ESPECIALLY ON MIN TEMPS WITH A STILL FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES
ARE IN PLAY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED
ON TEN OTHER OCCASIONS OF RECORD AT INDIANAPOLIS IN MARCH...AND NOT
SINCE 9 MARCH 1984.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
REGIONAL SOFTWARE IS ACCEPTED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE THE INITIALIZATION WILL VERIFY.

ALSO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC FIELDS...THEIR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. IN
A SENSE IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH VERIFIES BETTER...WE CAN EXPECT THE
SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 032000Z IND TAF/...

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW VIRGA ACROSS THE IND TAF SITE WITH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER IN ON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS.
EXPECT SOME FLURRIES TO STILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS LOWER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO SATURATED THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SNOW OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO
BE MAINLY MVFR...BUT IFR AT TIMES. BY 01Z THE SNOW WILL BE
OVER...CEILINGS WILL BE LOW END VFR...AND VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
UNRESTRICTED.

IN THE NORTH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED
FEET WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...DURING THE NIGHT CLOUDS
WILL RISE TO NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET AND THEN BREAK FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS
DAYTIME AND 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 042041
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
341 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AND THUS SIGNIFICANT
VARIATION COULD OCCUR WITHIN A VERY SHORT DISTANCE. BEYOND
TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE VERY COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH ESSENTIALLY A NOWCASTING ISSUE AT
THIS POINT. BASED ON HRRR AND NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS...HAVE
TIGHTENED UP GRADIENT EVEN MORE ACROSS THE SOUTH...EFFECTIVELY
DECREASING EXPECTED SNOW HERE IN THE INDY METRO DOWN TO A FEW
TENTHS AT BEST. AMOUNTS ARE BASICALLY THE SAME ACROSS THE
SOUTH...1 TO 3 ALONG A SULLIVAN TO BLOOMINGTON AND GREENSBURG
LINE...AND 2 TO 5 ALONG A VINCENNES TO NORTH VERNON LINE. COULD
SEE ISOLATED SPOTS PUSH 6 ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGE. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS MOVE THE SNOW OUT FASTER LATE
TONIGHT AND HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY FASTER END.

WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING AS IS AS CHANGES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
MINOR AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT COURSE OF ACTION.

TIGHTENED UP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEPICTED BY CONSENSUS TEMPS ON
MINS TONIGHT...WITH MID SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE SIGNIFICANT FOCUS.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS REQUIRED SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TWEAKS...ESPECIALLY ON MIN TEMPS WITH A STILL FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES
ARE IN PLAY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED
ON TEN OTHER OCCASIONS OF RECORD AT INDIANAPOLIS IN MARCH...AND NOT
SINCE 9 MARCH 1984.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
REGIONAL SOFTWARE IS ACCEPTED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE THE INITIALIZATION WILL VERIFY.

ALSO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC FIELDS...THEIR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. IN
A SENSE IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH VERIFIES BETTER...WE CAN EXPECT THE
SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 032000Z IND TAF/...

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW VIRGA ACROSS THE IND TAF SITE WITH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER IN ON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS.
EXPECT SOME FLURRIES TO STILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS LOWER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO SATURATED THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SNOW OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO
BE MAINLY MVFR...BUT IFR AT TIMES. BY 01Z THE SNOW WILL BE
OVER...CEILINGS WILL BE LOW END VFR...AND VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
UNRESTRICTED.

IN THE NORTH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED
FEET WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...DURING THE NIGHT CLOUDS
WILL RISE TO NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET AND THEN BREAK FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS
DAYTIME AND 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 042030
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AND THUS SIGNIFICANT
VARIATION COULD OCCUR WITHIN A VERY SHORT DISTANCE. BEYOND
TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE VERY COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH ESSENTIALLY A NOWCASTING ISSUE AT
THIS POINT. BASED ON HRRR AND NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS...HAVE
TIGHTENED UP GRADIENT EVEN MORE ACROSS THE SOUTH...EFFECTIVELY
DECREASING EXPECTED SNOW HERE IN THE INDY METRO DOWN TO A FEW
TENTHS AT BEST. AMOUNTS ARE BASICALLY THE SAME ACROSS THE
SOUTH...1 TO 3 ALONG A SULLIVAN TO BLOOMINGTON AND GREENSBURG
LINE...AND 2 TO 5 ALONG A VINCENNES TO NORTH VERNON LINE. COULD
SEE ISOLATED SPOTS PUSH 6 ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGE. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS MOVE THE SNOW OUT FASTER LATE
TONIGHT AND HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY FASTER END.

WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING AS IS AS CHANGES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
MINOR AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT COURSE OF ACTION.

TIGHTENED UP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEPICTED BY CONSENSUS TEMPS ON
MINS TONIGHT...WITH MID SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE SIGNIFICANT FOCUS.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS REQUIRED SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TWEAKS...ESPECIALLY ON MIN TEMPS WITH A STILL FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES
ARE IN PLAY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED
ON TEN OTHER OCCASIONS OF RECORD AT INDIANAPOLIS IN MARCH...AND NOT
SINCE 9 MARCH 1984.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
REGIONAL SOFTWARE IS ACCEPTED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE THE INITIALIZATION WILL VERIFY.

ALSO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC FIELDS...THEIR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. IN
A SENSE IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH VERIFIES BETTER...WE CAN EXPECT THE
SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SNOW OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO
BE MAINLY MVFR...BUT IFR AT TIMES. BY 01Z THE SNOW WILL BE
OVER...CEILINGS WILL BE LOW END VFR...AND VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
UNRESTRICTED.

IN THE NORTH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED
FEET WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...DURING THE NIGHT CLOUDS
WILL RISE TO NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET AND THEN BREAK FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS
DAYTIME AND 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 042030
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AND THUS SIGNIFICANT
VARIATION COULD OCCUR WITHIN A VERY SHORT DISTANCE. BEYOND
TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE VERY COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH ESSENTIALLY A NOWCASTING ISSUE AT
THIS POINT. BASED ON HRRR AND NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS...HAVE
TIGHTENED UP GRADIENT EVEN MORE ACROSS THE SOUTH...EFFECTIVELY
DECREASING EXPECTED SNOW HERE IN THE INDY METRO DOWN TO A FEW
TENTHS AT BEST. AMOUNTS ARE BASICALLY THE SAME ACROSS THE
SOUTH...1 TO 3 ALONG A SULLIVAN TO BLOOMINGTON AND GREENSBURG
LINE...AND 2 TO 5 ALONG A VINCENNES TO NORTH VERNON LINE. COULD
SEE ISOLATED SPOTS PUSH 6 ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGE. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS MOVE THE SNOW OUT FASTER LATE
TONIGHT AND HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY FASTER END.

WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING AS IS AS CHANGES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
MINOR AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT COURSE OF ACTION.

TIGHTENED UP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEPICTED BY CONSENSUS TEMPS ON
MINS TONIGHT...WITH MID SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE SIGNIFICANT FOCUS.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS REQUIRED SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TWEAKS...ESPECIALLY ON MIN TEMPS WITH A STILL FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES
ARE IN PLAY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED
ON TEN OTHER OCCASIONS OF RECORD AT INDIANAPOLIS IN MARCH...AND NOT
SINCE 9 MARCH 1984.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
REGIONAL SOFTWARE IS ACCEPTED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE THE INITIALIZATION WILL VERIFY.

ALSO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC FIELDS...THEIR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. IN
A SENSE IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH VERIFIES BETTER...WE CAN EXPECT THE
SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SNOW OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO
BE MAINLY MVFR...BUT IFR AT TIMES. BY 01Z THE SNOW WILL BE
OVER...CEILINGS WILL BE LOW END VFR...AND VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
UNRESTRICTED.

IN THE NORTH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED
FEET WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...DURING THE NIGHT CLOUDS
WILL RISE TO NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET AND THEN BREAK FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS
DAYTIME AND 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 042030
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AND THUS SIGNIFICANT
VARIATION COULD OCCUR WITHIN A VERY SHORT DISTANCE. BEYOND
TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE VERY COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH ESSENTIALLY A NOWCASTING ISSUE AT
THIS POINT. BASED ON HRRR AND NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS...HAVE
TIGHTENED UP GRADIENT EVEN MORE ACROSS THE SOUTH...EFFECTIVELY
DECREASING EXPECTED SNOW HERE IN THE INDY METRO DOWN TO A FEW
TENTHS AT BEST. AMOUNTS ARE BASICALLY THE SAME ACROSS THE
SOUTH...1 TO 3 ALONG A SULLIVAN TO BLOOMINGTON AND GREENSBURG
LINE...AND 2 TO 5 ALONG A VINCENNES TO NORTH VERNON LINE. COULD
SEE ISOLATED SPOTS PUSH 6 ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGE. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS MOVE THE SNOW OUT FASTER LATE
TONIGHT AND HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY FASTER END.

WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING AS IS AS CHANGES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
MINOR AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT COURSE OF ACTION.

TIGHTENED UP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEPICTED BY CONSENSUS TEMPS ON
MINS TONIGHT...WITH MID SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE SIGNIFICANT FOCUS.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS REQUIRED SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TWEAKS...ESPECIALLY ON MIN TEMPS WITH A STILL FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES
ARE IN PLAY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED
ON TEN OTHER OCCASIONS OF RECORD AT INDIANAPOLIS IN MARCH...AND NOT
SINCE 9 MARCH 1984.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
REGIONAL SOFTWARE IS ACCEPTED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE THE INITIALIZATION WILL VERIFY.

ALSO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC FIELDS...THEIR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. IN
A SENSE IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH VERIFIES BETTER...WE CAN EXPECT THE
SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SNOW OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO
BE MAINLY MVFR...BUT IFR AT TIMES. BY 01Z THE SNOW WILL BE
OVER...CEILINGS WILL BE LOW END VFR...AND VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
UNRESTRICTED.

IN THE NORTH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED
FEET WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...DURING THE NIGHT CLOUDS
WILL RISE TO NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET AND THEN BREAK FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS
DAYTIME AND 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 042030
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AND THUS SIGNIFICANT
VARIATION COULD OCCUR WITHIN A VERY SHORT DISTANCE. BEYOND
TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE VERY COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SNOW FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH ESSENTIALLY A NOWCASTING ISSUE AT
THIS POINT. BASED ON HRRR AND NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS...HAVE
TIGHTENED UP GRADIENT EVEN MORE ACROSS THE SOUTH...EFFECTIVELY
DECREASING EXPECTED SNOW HERE IN THE INDY METRO DOWN TO A FEW
TENTHS AT BEST. AMOUNTS ARE BASICALLY THE SAME ACROSS THE
SOUTH...1 TO 3 ALONG A SULLIVAN TO BLOOMINGTON AND GREENSBURG
LINE...AND 2 TO 5 ALONG A VINCENNES TO NORTH VERNON LINE. COULD
SEE ISOLATED SPOTS PUSH 6 ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGE. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS MOVE THE SNOW OUT FASTER LATE
TONIGHT AND HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY FASTER END.

WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING AS IS AS CHANGES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
MINOR AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT COURSE OF ACTION.

TIGHTENED UP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEPICTED BY CONSENSUS TEMPS ON
MINS TONIGHT...WITH MID SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE SIGNIFICANT FOCUS.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS REQUIRED SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TWEAKS...ESPECIALLY ON MIN TEMPS WITH A STILL FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES
ARE IN PLAY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED
ON TEN OTHER OCCASIONS OF RECORD AT INDIANAPOLIS IN MARCH...AND NOT
SINCE 9 MARCH 1984.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
REGIONAL SOFTWARE IS ACCEPTED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE THE INITIALIZATION WILL VERIFY.

ALSO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC FIELDS...THEIR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. IN
A SENSE IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH VERIFIES BETTER...WE CAN EXPECT THE
SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SNOW OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO
BE MAINLY MVFR...BUT IFR AT TIMES. BY 01Z THE SNOW WILL BE
OVER...CEILINGS WILL BE LOW END VFR...AND VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
UNRESTRICTED.

IN THE NORTH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED
FEET WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...DURING THE NIGHT CLOUDS
WILL RISE TO NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET AND THEN BREAK FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS
DAYTIME AND 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 041846
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
146 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 944 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

CONTINUED TREND OF LOWERING POPS THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION HAS
LARGELY STAYED JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN BORDER THUS FAR. THIS
WILL CUT DOWN ON EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY. HRRR BRINGS
SNOWFALL BACK TO THE AREA BY MIDDAY AND WILL BLEND MORNING
ADJUSTMENTS INTO THE AFTERNOON GRIDS. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO LIKELY REPRESENT OR BE VERY NEAR DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS IN THAT MANNER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
FOLLOW.

ISSUED AT 628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONE INTERESTING NOTE...RAP/HRRR ARE COMING IN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD TO SEE IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD.

340 AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.

STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.

RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.

BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.

LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
REGIONAL SOFTWARE IS ACCEPTED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE THE INITIALIZATION WILL VERIFY.

ALSO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC FIELDS...THEIR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. IN
A SENSE IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH VERIFIES BETTER...WE CAN EXPECT THE
SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SNOW OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO
BE MAINLY MVFR...BUT IFR AT TIMES. BY 01Z THE SNOW WILL BE
OVER...CEILINGS WILL BE LOW END VFR...AND VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
UNRESTRICTED.

IN THE NORTH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED
FEET WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...DURING THE NIGHT CLOUDS
WILL RISE TO NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET AND THEN BREAK FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS
DAYTIME AND 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 041846
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
146 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 944 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

CONTINUED TREND OF LOWERING POPS THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION HAS
LARGELY STAYED JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN BORDER THUS FAR. THIS
WILL CUT DOWN ON EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY. HRRR BRINGS
SNOWFALL BACK TO THE AREA BY MIDDAY AND WILL BLEND MORNING
ADJUSTMENTS INTO THE AFTERNOON GRIDS. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO LIKELY REPRESENT OR BE VERY NEAR DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS IN THAT MANNER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
FOLLOW.

ISSUED AT 628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONE INTERESTING NOTE...RAP/HRRR ARE COMING IN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD TO SEE IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD.

340 AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.

STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.

RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.

BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.

LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
REGIONAL SOFTWARE IS ACCEPTED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE THE INITIALIZATION WILL VERIFY.

ALSO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC FIELDS...THEIR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. IN
A SENSE IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH VERIFIES BETTER...WE CAN EXPECT THE
SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SNOW OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO
BE MAINLY MVFR...BUT IFR AT TIMES. BY 01Z THE SNOW WILL BE
OVER...CEILINGS WILL BE LOW END VFR...AND VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
UNRESTRICTED.

IN THE NORTH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED
FEET WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...DURING THE NIGHT CLOUDS
WILL RISE TO NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET AND THEN BREAK FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS
DAYTIME AND 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 041846
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
146 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 944 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

CONTINUED TREND OF LOWERING POPS THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION HAS
LARGELY STAYED JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN BORDER THUS FAR. THIS
WILL CUT DOWN ON EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY. HRRR BRINGS
SNOWFALL BACK TO THE AREA BY MIDDAY AND WILL BLEND MORNING
ADJUSTMENTS INTO THE AFTERNOON GRIDS. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO LIKELY REPRESENT OR BE VERY NEAR DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS IN THAT MANNER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
FOLLOW.

ISSUED AT 628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONE INTERESTING NOTE...RAP/HRRR ARE COMING IN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD TO SEE IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD.

340 AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.

STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.

RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.

BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.

LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
REGIONAL SOFTWARE IS ACCEPTED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE THE INITIALIZATION WILL VERIFY.

ALSO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC FIELDS...THEIR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. IN
A SENSE IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH VERIFIES BETTER...WE CAN EXPECT THE
SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SNOW OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO
BE MAINLY MVFR...BUT IFR AT TIMES. BY 01Z THE SNOW WILL BE
OVER...CEILINGS WILL BE LOW END VFR...AND VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
UNRESTRICTED.

IN THE NORTH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED
FEET WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...DURING THE NIGHT CLOUDS
WILL RISE TO NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET AND THEN BREAK FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS
DAYTIME AND 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 041846
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
146 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 944 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

CONTINUED TREND OF LOWERING POPS THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION HAS
LARGELY STAYED JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN BORDER THUS FAR. THIS
WILL CUT DOWN ON EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY. HRRR BRINGS
SNOWFALL BACK TO THE AREA BY MIDDAY AND WILL BLEND MORNING
ADJUSTMENTS INTO THE AFTERNOON GRIDS. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO LIKELY REPRESENT OR BE VERY NEAR DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS IN THAT MANNER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
FOLLOW.

ISSUED AT 628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONE INTERESTING NOTE...RAP/HRRR ARE COMING IN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD TO SEE IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD.

340 AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.

STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.

RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.

BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.

LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
REGIONAL SOFTWARE IS ACCEPTED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE THE INITIALIZATION WILL VERIFY.

ALSO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC FIELDS...THEIR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. IN
A SENSE IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH VERIFIES BETTER...WE CAN EXPECT THE
SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SNOW OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO
BE MAINLY MVFR...BUT IFR AT TIMES. BY 01Z THE SNOW WILL BE
OVER...CEILINGS WILL BE LOW END VFR...AND VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
UNRESTRICTED.

IN THE NORTH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED
FEET WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...DURING THE NIGHT CLOUDS
WILL RISE TO NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET AND THEN BREAK FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS
DAYTIME AND 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 041658
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 944 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

CONTINUED TREND OF LOWERING POPS THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION HAS
LARGELY STAYED JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN BORDER THUS FAR. THIS
WILL CUT DOWN ON EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY. HRRR BRINGS
SNOWFALL BACK TO THE AREA BY MIDDAY AND WILL BLEND MORNING
ADJUSTMENTS INTO THE AFTERNOON GRIDS. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO LIKELY REPRESENT OR BE VERY NEAR DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS IN THAT MANNER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
FOLLOW.

ISSUED AT 628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONE INTERESTING NOTE...RAP/HRRR ARE COMING IN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD TO SEE IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD.

340 AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.

STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.

RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.

BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.

LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SNOW OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO
BE MAINLY MVFR...BUT IFR AT TIMES. BY 01Z THE SNOW WILL BE
OVER...CEILINGS WILL BE LOW END VFR...AND VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
UNRESTRICTED.

IN THE NORTH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED
FEET WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...DURING THE NIGHT CLOUDS
WILL RISE TO NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET AND THEN BREAK FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS
DAYTIME AND 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 041658
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 944 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

CONTINUED TREND OF LOWERING POPS THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION HAS
LARGELY STAYED JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN BORDER THUS FAR. THIS
WILL CUT DOWN ON EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY. HRRR BRINGS
SNOWFALL BACK TO THE AREA BY MIDDAY AND WILL BLEND MORNING
ADJUSTMENTS INTO THE AFTERNOON GRIDS. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO LIKELY REPRESENT OR BE VERY NEAR DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS IN THAT MANNER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
FOLLOW.

ISSUED AT 628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONE INTERESTING NOTE...RAP/HRRR ARE COMING IN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD TO SEE IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD.

340 AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.

STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.

RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.

BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.

LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SNOW OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO
BE MAINLY MVFR...BUT IFR AT TIMES. BY 01Z THE SNOW WILL BE
OVER...CEILINGS WILL BE LOW END VFR...AND VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
UNRESTRICTED.

IN THE NORTH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED
FEET WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...DURING THE NIGHT CLOUDS
WILL RISE TO NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET AND THEN BREAK FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS
DAYTIME AND 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 041658
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 944 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

CONTINUED TREND OF LOWERING POPS THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION HAS
LARGELY STAYED JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN BORDER THUS FAR. THIS
WILL CUT DOWN ON EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY. HRRR BRINGS
SNOWFALL BACK TO THE AREA BY MIDDAY AND WILL BLEND MORNING
ADJUSTMENTS INTO THE AFTERNOON GRIDS. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO LIKELY REPRESENT OR BE VERY NEAR DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS IN THAT MANNER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
FOLLOW.

ISSUED AT 628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONE INTERESTING NOTE...RAP/HRRR ARE COMING IN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD TO SEE IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD.

340 AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.

STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.

RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.

BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.

LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SNOW OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO
BE MAINLY MVFR...BUT IFR AT TIMES. BY 01Z THE SNOW WILL BE
OVER...CEILINGS WILL BE LOW END VFR...AND VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
UNRESTRICTED.

IN THE NORTH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED
FEET WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...DURING THE NIGHT CLOUDS
WILL RISE TO NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET AND THEN BREAK FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS
DAYTIME AND 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 041658
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 944 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

CONTINUED TREND OF LOWERING POPS THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION HAS
LARGELY STAYED JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN BORDER THUS FAR. THIS
WILL CUT DOWN ON EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY. HRRR BRINGS
SNOWFALL BACK TO THE AREA BY MIDDAY AND WILL BLEND MORNING
ADJUSTMENTS INTO THE AFTERNOON GRIDS. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO LIKELY REPRESENT OR BE VERY NEAR DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS IN THAT MANNER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
FOLLOW.

ISSUED AT 628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONE INTERESTING NOTE...RAP/HRRR ARE COMING IN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD TO SEE IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD.

340 AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.

STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.

RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.

BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.

LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SNOW OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO
BE MAINLY MVFR...BUT IFR AT TIMES. BY 01Z THE SNOW WILL BE
OVER...CEILINGS WILL BE LOW END VFR...AND VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
UNRESTRICTED.

IN THE NORTH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED
FEET WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...DURING THE NIGHT CLOUDS
WILL RISE TO NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET AND THEN BREAK FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS
DAYTIME AND 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 041444
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
944 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 944 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

CONTINUED TREND OF LOWERING POPS THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION HAS
LARGELY STAYED JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN BORDER THUS FAR. THIS
WILL CUT DOWN ON EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY. HRRR BRINGS
SNOWFALL BACK TO THE AREA BY MIDDAY AND WILL BLEND MORNING
ADJUSTMENTS INTO THE AFTERNOON GRIDS. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO LIKELY REPRESENT OR BE VERY NEAR DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS IN THAT MANNER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
FOLLOW.

ISSUED AT 628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONE INTERESTING NOTE...RAP/HRRR ARE COMING IN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD TO SEE IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD.

340 AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.

STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.

RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.

BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.

LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 041500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION IN THE KBMG/KHUF/KIND AREAS BY MID
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN PLACED IN THEIR TAFS AFTER 19Z. THE
BEST THREAT FOR PROLONGED IFR VISIBILITY IS IN THE KBMG AREA...WHICH
WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 WILL
WILL LINGER MOST OF THE DAY.

SURFACE WINDS 310-330 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 041444
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
944 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 944 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

CONTINUED TREND OF LOWERING POPS THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION HAS
LARGELY STAYED JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN BORDER THUS FAR. THIS
WILL CUT DOWN ON EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY. HRRR BRINGS
SNOWFALL BACK TO THE AREA BY MIDDAY AND WILL BLEND MORNING
ADJUSTMENTS INTO THE AFTERNOON GRIDS. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO LIKELY REPRESENT OR BE VERY NEAR DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS IN THAT MANNER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
FOLLOW.

ISSUED AT 628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONE INTERESTING NOTE...RAP/HRRR ARE COMING IN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD TO SEE IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD.

340 AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.

STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.

RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.

BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.

LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 041500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION IN THE KBMG/KHUF/KIND AREAS BY MID
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN PLACED IN THEIR TAFS AFTER 19Z. THE
BEST THREAT FOR PROLONGED IFR VISIBILITY IS IN THE KBMG AREA...WHICH
WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 WILL
WILL LINGER MOST OF THE DAY.

SURFACE WINDS 310-330 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 041444
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
944 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 944 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

CONTINUED TREND OF LOWERING POPS THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION HAS
LARGELY STAYED JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN BORDER THUS FAR. THIS
WILL CUT DOWN ON EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY. HRRR BRINGS
SNOWFALL BACK TO THE AREA BY MIDDAY AND WILL BLEND MORNING
ADJUSTMENTS INTO THE AFTERNOON GRIDS. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO LIKELY REPRESENT OR BE VERY NEAR DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS IN THAT MANNER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
FOLLOW.

ISSUED AT 628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONE INTERESTING NOTE...RAP/HRRR ARE COMING IN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD TO SEE IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD.

340 AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.

STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.

RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.

BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.

LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 041500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION IN THE KBMG/KHUF/KIND AREAS BY MID
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN PLACED IN THEIR TAFS AFTER 19Z. THE
BEST THREAT FOR PROLONGED IFR VISIBILITY IS IN THE KBMG AREA...WHICH
WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 WILL
WILL LINGER MOST OF THE DAY.

SURFACE WINDS 310-330 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 041444
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
944 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 944 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

CONTINUED TREND OF LOWERING POPS THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION HAS
LARGELY STAYED JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN BORDER THUS FAR. THIS
WILL CUT DOWN ON EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY. HRRR BRINGS
SNOWFALL BACK TO THE AREA BY MIDDAY AND WILL BLEND MORNING
ADJUSTMENTS INTO THE AFTERNOON GRIDS. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO LIKELY REPRESENT OR BE VERY NEAR DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS IN THAT MANNER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
FOLLOW.

ISSUED AT 628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONE INTERESTING NOTE...RAP/HRRR ARE COMING IN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD TO SEE IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD.

340 AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.

STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.

RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.

BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.

LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 041500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION IN THE KBMG/KHUF/KIND AREAS BY MID
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN PLACED IN THEIR TAFS AFTER 19Z. THE
BEST THREAT FOR PROLONGED IFR VISIBILITY IS IN THE KBMG AREA...WHICH
WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 WILL
WILL LINGER MOST OF THE DAY.

SURFACE WINDS 310-330 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 041418
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
918 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONE INTERESTING NOTE...RAP/HRRR ARE COMING IN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD TO SEE IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD.

340 AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.

STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.

RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.

BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.

LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 041500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 920 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION IN THE KBMG/KHUF/KIND AREAS BY MID
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN PLACED IN THEIR TAFS AFTER 19Z. THE
BEST THREAT FOR PROLONGED IFR VISIBILITY IS IN THE KBMG AREA...WHICH
WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 WILL
WILL LINGER MOST OF THE DAY.

SURFACE WINDS 310-330 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 041418
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
918 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONE INTERESTING NOTE...RAP/HRRR ARE COMING IN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD TO SEE IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD.

340 AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.

STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.

RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.

BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.

LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 041500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 920 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION IN THE KBMG/KHUF/KIND AREAS BY MID
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN PLACED IN THEIR TAFS AFTER 19Z. THE
BEST THREAT FOR PROLONGED IFR VISIBILITY IS IN THE KBMG AREA...WHICH
WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 WILL
WILL LINGER MOST OF THE DAY.

SURFACE WINDS 310-330 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 041418
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
918 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONE INTERESTING NOTE...RAP/HRRR ARE COMING IN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD TO SEE IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD.

340 AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.

STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.

RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.

BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.

LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 041500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 920 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION IN THE KBMG/KHUF/KIND AREAS BY MID
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN PLACED IN THEIR TAFS AFTER 19Z. THE
BEST THREAT FOR PROLONGED IFR VISIBILITY IS IN THE KBMG AREA...WHICH
WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 WILL
WILL LINGER MOST OF THE DAY.

SURFACE WINDS 310-330 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 041418
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
918 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONE INTERESTING NOTE...RAP/HRRR ARE COMING IN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD TO SEE IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD.

340 AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.

STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.

RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.

BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.

LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 041500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 920 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION IN THE KBMG/KHUF/KIND AREAS BY MID
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN PLACED IN THEIR TAFS AFTER 19Z. THE
BEST THREAT FOR PROLONGED IFR VISIBILITY IS IN THE KBMG AREA...WHICH
WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 WILL
WILL LINGER MOST OF THE DAY.

SURFACE WINDS 310-330 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 041128
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONE INTERESTING NOTE...RAP/HRRR ARE COMING IN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD TO SEE IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD.

340 AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.

STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.

RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.

BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.

LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 535 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

RADAR LOOP INDICATES PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS BEEN SHIFTING SOUTH
WITH TIME...CURRENTLY IMPACTING ONLY THE KBMG TERMINALAT THIS TIME.
APPEARS BY ISSUANCE TIME...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THERE AS
WELL.

UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN IOWA/MISSOURI IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME PRECIPITATION PUSHING BACK INTO THE KBMG/KHUF/KIND AREAS BY
MID AFTERNOON. WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW BACK INTO THESE TERMINALS
AFTER 041900Z. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS THE BEST THREAT FOR PROLONGED
IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE KBMG
AREA...WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO DEEPER MOISTURE FEED.

OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 WILL
SPREAD BACK OVER THE TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE AND LINGER MOST
OF THE DAY.

SURFACE WINDS 310-330 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
INZ061>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 041128
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONE INTERESTING NOTE...RAP/HRRR ARE COMING IN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD TO SEE IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD.

340 AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.

STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.

RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.

BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.

LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 535 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

RADAR LOOP INDICATES PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS BEEN SHIFTING SOUTH
WITH TIME...CURRENTLY IMPACTING ONLY THE KBMG TERMINALAT THIS TIME.
APPEARS BY ISSUANCE TIME...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THERE AS
WELL.

UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN IOWA/MISSOURI IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME PRECIPITATION PUSHING BACK INTO THE KBMG/KHUF/KIND AREAS BY
MID AFTERNOON. WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW BACK INTO THESE TERMINALS
AFTER 041900Z. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS THE BEST THREAT FOR PROLONGED
IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE KBMG
AREA...WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO DEEPER MOISTURE FEED.

OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 WILL
SPREAD BACK OVER THE TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE AND LINGER MOST
OF THE DAY.

SURFACE WINDS 310-330 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
INZ061>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 041032
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
530 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.

STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.

RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.

BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.

LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 535 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

RADAR LOOP INDICATES PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS BEEN SHIFTING SOUTH
WITH TIME...CURRENTLY IMPACTING ONLY THE KBMG TERMINALAT THIS TIME.
APPEARS BY ISSUANCE TIME...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THERE AS
WELL.

UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN IOWA/MISSOURI IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME PRECIPITATION PUSHING BACK INTO THE KBMG/KHUF/KIND AREAS BY
MID AFTERNOON. WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW BACK INTO THESE TERMINALS
AFTER 041900Z. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS THE BEST THREAT FOR PROLONGED
IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE KBMG
AREA...WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO DEEPER MOISTURE FEED.

OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 WILL
SPREAD BACK OVER THE TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE AND LINGER MOST
OF THE DAY.

SURFACE WINDS 310-330 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
INZ061>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 041032
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
530 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.

STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.

RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.

BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.

LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 535 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

RADAR LOOP INDICATES PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS BEEN SHIFTING SOUTH
WITH TIME...CURRENTLY IMPACTING ONLY THE KBMG TERMINALAT THIS TIME.
APPEARS BY ISSUANCE TIME...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THERE AS
WELL.

UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN IOWA/MISSOURI IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME PRECIPITATION PUSHING BACK INTO THE KBMG/KHUF/KIND AREAS BY
MID AFTERNOON. WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW BACK INTO THESE TERMINALS
AFTER 041900Z. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS THE BEST THREAT FOR PROLONGED
IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE KBMG
AREA...WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO DEEPER MOISTURE FEED.

OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 WILL
SPREAD BACK OVER THE TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE AND LINGER MOST
OF THE DAY.

SURFACE WINDS 310-330 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
INZ061>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 040841
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.

STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.

RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.

BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.

LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

RADAR LOOP INDICATES MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE KIND TERMINAL. WILL PROBABLY BE SOME PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE...BUT OVERALL SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION MAY NOT MOVE BACK INTO
THE KIND AREA UNTIL LATER TODAY.

MOST OF THE IFR CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM...SO WILL PULL THEM FROM THE FORECAST ON THE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

IT LOOKS LIKE FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL WAFFLE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE
BEEN FAVORING IFR. LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW SHOULD MOVE
BACK IN OVER THE TERMINALS...SAVE LAF...BY ISSUANCE TIME. BY
13Z...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN BE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR PER MODEL RH
TIME SECTIONS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND AROUND
AND ABOVE KNOTS AFTER 13Z...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
INZ061>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 040841
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.

STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.

RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.

BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.

LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

RADAR LOOP INDICATES MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE KIND TERMINAL. WILL PROBABLY BE SOME PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE...BUT OVERALL SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION MAY NOT MOVE BACK INTO
THE KIND AREA UNTIL LATER TODAY.

MOST OF THE IFR CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM...SO WILL PULL THEM FROM THE FORECAST ON THE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

IT LOOKS LIKE FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL WAFFLE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE
BEEN FAVORING IFR. LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW SHOULD MOVE
BACK IN OVER THE TERMINALS...SAVE LAF...BY ISSUANCE TIME. BY
13Z...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN BE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR PER MODEL RH
TIME SECTIONS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND AROUND
AND ABOVE KNOTS AFTER 13Z...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
INZ061>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 040841
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.

STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.

RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.

BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.

LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

RADAR LOOP INDICATES MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE KIND TERMINAL. WILL PROBABLY BE SOME PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE...BUT OVERALL SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION MAY NOT MOVE BACK INTO
THE KIND AREA UNTIL LATER TODAY.

MOST OF THE IFR CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM...SO WILL PULL THEM FROM THE FORECAST ON THE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

IT LOOKS LIKE FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL WAFFLE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE
BEEN FAVORING IFR. LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW SHOULD MOVE
BACK IN OVER THE TERMINALS...SAVE LAF...BY ISSUANCE TIME. BY
13Z...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN BE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR PER MODEL RH
TIME SECTIONS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND AROUND
AND ABOVE KNOTS AFTER 13Z...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
INZ061>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 040840
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.

STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH SEEM REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT
BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE
BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO
NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH 1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN
WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING SOME MINOR FLOODING.

RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.

BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.

LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

RADAR LOOP INDICATES MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE KIND TERMINAL. WILL PROBABLY BE SOME PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE...BUT OVERALL SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION MAY NOT MOVE BACK INTO
THE KIND AREA UNTIL LATER TODAY.

MOST OF THE IFR CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM...SO WILL PULL THEM FROM THE FORECAST ON THE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

IT LOOKS LIKE FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL WAFFLE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE
BEEN FAVORING IFR. LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW SHOULD MOVE
BACK IN OVER THE TERMINALS...SAVE LAF...BY ISSUANCE TIME. BY
13Z...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN BE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR PER MODEL RH
TIME SECTIONS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND AROUND
AND ABOVE KNOTS AFTER 13Z...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
INZ061>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 040840
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.

STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH SEEM REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT
BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE
BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO
NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH 1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN
WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING SOME MINOR FLOODING.

RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.

BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.

LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

RADAR LOOP INDICATES MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE KIND TERMINAL. WILL PROBABLY BE SOME PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE...BUT OVERALL SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION MAY NOT MOVE BACK INTO
THE KIND AREA UNTIL LATER TODAY.

MOST OF THE IFR CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM...SO WILL PULL THEM FROM THE FORECAST ON THE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

IT LOOKS LIKE FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL WAFFLE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE
BEEN FAVORING IFR. LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW SHOULD MOVE
BACK IN OVER THE TERMINALS...SAVE LAF...BY ISSUANCE TIME. BY
13Z...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN BE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR PER MODEL RH
TIME SECTIONS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND AROUND
AND ABOVE KNOTS AFTER 13Z...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
INZ061>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 040816
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. AS IT DOES...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MINOR SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS ON PRECIP...DRYING OUT NORTHERN
COUNTIES A BIT FASTER PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

STEADY RAIN EDGE HAS SAGGED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF I-70. STILL ONE
MORE PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO FEED ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

DOUBTFUL ANY SNOW LIKELY TO COME WITH OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION BUT
TEMPS WILL FALL ENOUGH THAT ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP NORTH OF I-70
COULD SEE A LITTLE MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOUTH OF I-70 STILL EXPECT VERY SLOW SOUTH MOVEMENT OF RAIN AREA
AND VERY SLOW FALL OF TEMPS SO MAINLY RAIN UNTIL A FEW HOURS PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK AND JUST BARELY REACHING FREEZING THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOCUS IS ON THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO FAR
APART FROM EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SNOW AMOUNTS
BUT THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A TIGHT GRADIENT EXPECTED. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
MAY BE A MIX TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT IT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.

FORCING INCREASES AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES...AND
OUR AREA GETS INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ALSO
INCREASE.

THE FOCUS FOR THE FORCING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WEDNESDAY.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER POPS
SNEAKING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH /STILL LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA/. HOWEVER WITH THE CIRCULATION PROVIDED BY
THE UPPER JET EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN EVEN
MORE. THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN THAT AND THE HIGH POPS TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE FOR THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KENTUCKY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PRODUCE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOW
AMOUNTS...GOING FROM LITTLE SNOW TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN A RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTANCE /ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/.

THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL INDIANA LOOK TO SEE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HOWEVER WITH THE GRADIENT
MENTIONED ABOVE AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS AND LET ADDITIONAL DATA ARRIVE
BEFORE DECIDING TO GO TO WARNING. FOR NOW WENT NEAR 6 INCHES STORM
TOTAL IN THIS ROW WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH.
WENT 2-3 INCHES IN BLOOMINGTON/COLUMBUS AREA AND AROUND 1 INCH IN
INDY.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT EARLY THURSDAY WENT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
PROVIDE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QFP WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

RADAR LOOP INDICATES MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE KIND TERMINAL. WILL PROBABLY BE SOME PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE...BUT OVERALL SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION MAY NOT MOVE BACK INTO
THE KIND AREA UNTIL LATER TODAY.

MOST OF THE IFR CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM...SO WILL PULL THEM FROM THE FORECAST ON THE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

IT LOOKS LIKE FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL WAFFLE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE
BEEN FAVORING IFR. LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW SHOULD MOVE
BACK IN OVER THE TERMINALS...SAVE LAF...BY ISSUANCE TIME. BY
13Z...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN BE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR PER MODEL RH
TIME SECTIONS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND AROUND
AND ABOVE KNOTS AFTER 13Z...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 040816
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. AS IT DOES...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MINOR SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS ON PRECIP...DRYING OUT NORTHERN
COUNTIES A BIT FASTER PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

STEADY RAIN EDGE HAS SAGGED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF I-70. STILL ONE
MORE PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO FEED ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

DOUBTFUL ANY SNOW LIKELY TO COME WITH OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION BUT
TEMPS WILL FALL ENOUGH THAT ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP NORTH OF I-70
COULD SEE A LITTLE MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOUTH OF I-70 STILL EXPECT VERY SLOW SOUTH MOVEMENT OF RAIN AREA
AND VERY SLOW FALL OF TEMPS SO MAINLY RAIN UNTIL A FEW HOURS PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK AND JUST BARELY REACHING FREEZING THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOCUS IS ON THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO FAR
APART FROM EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SNOW AMOUNTS
BUT THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A TIGHT GRADIENT EXPECTED. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
MAY BE A MIX TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT IT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.

FORCING INCREASES AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES...AND
OUR AREA GETS INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ALSO
INCREASE.

THE FOCUS FOR THE FORCING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WEDNESDAY.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER POPS
SNEAKING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH /STILL LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA/. HOWEVER WITH THE CIRCULATION PROVIDED BY
THE UPPER JET EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN EVEN
MORE. THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN THAT AND THE HIGH POPS TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE FOR THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KENTUCKY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PRODUCE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOW
AMOUNTS...GOING FROM LITTLE SNOW TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN A RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTANCE /ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/.

THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL INDIANA LOOK TO SEE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HOWEVER WITH THE GRADIENT
MENTIONED ABOVE AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS AND LET ADDITIONAL DATA ARRIVE
BEFORE DECIDING TO GO TO WARNING. FOR NOW WENT NEAR 6 INCHES STORM
TOTAL IN THIS ROW WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH.
WENT 2-3 INCHES IN BLOOMINGTON/COLUMBUS AREA AND AROUND 1 INCH IN
INDY.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT EARLY THURSDAY WENT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
PROVIDE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QFP WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

RADAR LOOP INDICATES MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE KIND TERMINAL. WILL PROBABLY BE SOME PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE...BUT OVERALL SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION MAY NOT MOVE BACK INTO
THE KIND AREA UNTIL LATER TODAY.

MOST OF THE IFR CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM...SO WILL PULL THEM FROM THE FORECAST ON THE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

IT LOOKS LIKE FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL WAFFLE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE
BEEN FAVORING IFR. LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW SHOULD MOVE
BACK IN OVER THE TERMINALS...SAVE LAF...BY ISSUANCE TIME. BY
13Z...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN BE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR PER MODEL RH
TIME SECTIONS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND AROUND
AND ABOVE KNOTS AFTER 13Z...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 040816
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. AS IT DOES...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MINOR SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS ON PRECIP...DRYING OUT NORTHERN
COUNTIES A BIT FASTER PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

STEADY RAIN EDGE HAS SAGGED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF I-70. STILL ONE
MORE PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO FEED ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

DOUBTFUL ANY SNOW LIKELY TO COME WITH OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION BUT
TEMPS WILL FALL ENOUGH THAT ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP NORTH OF I-70
COULD SEE A LITTLE MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOUTH OF I-70 STILL EXPECT VERY SLOW SOUTH MOVEMENT OF RAIN AREA
AND VERY SLOW FALL OF TEMPS SO MAINLY RAIN UNTIL A FEW HOURS PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK AND JUST BARELY REACHING FREEZING THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOCUS IS ON THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO FAR
APART FROM EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SNOW AMOUNTS
BUT THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A TIGHT GRADIENT EXPECTED. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
MAY BE A MIX TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT IT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.

FORCING INCREASES AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES...AND
OUR AREA GETS INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ALSO
INCREASE.

THE FOCUS FOR THE FORCING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WEDNESDAY.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER POPS
SNEAKING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH /STILL LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA/. HOWEVER WITH THE CIRCULATION PROVIDED BY
THE UPPER JET EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN EVEN
MORE. THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN THAT AND THE HIGH POPS TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE FOR THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KENTUCKY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PRODUCE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOW
AMOUNTS...GOING FROM LITTLE SNOW TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN A RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTANCE /ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/.

THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL INDIANA LOOK TO SEE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HOWEVER WITH THE GRADIENT
MENTIONED ABOVE AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS AND LET ADDITIONAL DATA ARRIVE
BEFORE DECIDING TO GO TO WARNING. FOR NOW WENT NEAR 6 INCHES STORM
TOTAL IN THIS ROW WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH.
WENT 2-3 INCHES IN BLOOMINGTON/COLUMBUS AREA AND AROUND 1 INCH IN
INDY.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT EARLY THURSDAY WENT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
PROVIDE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QFP WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

RADAR LOOP INDICATES MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE KIND TERMINAL. WILL PROBABLY BE SOME PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE...BUT OVERALL SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION MAY NOT MOVE BACK INTO
THE KIND AREA UNTIL LATER TODAY.

MOST OF THE IFR CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM...SO WILL PULL THEM FROM THE FORECAST ON THE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

IT LOOKS LIKE FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL WAFFLE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE
BEEN FAVORING IFR. LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW SHOULD MOVE
BACK IN OVER THE TERMINALS...SAVE LAF...BY ISSUANCE TIME. BY
13Z...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN BE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR PER MODEL RH
TIME SECTIONS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND AROUND
AND ABOVE KNOTS AFTER 13Z...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 040816
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. AS IT DOES...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MINOR SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS ON PRECIP...DRYING OUT NORTHERN
COUNTIES A BIT FASTER PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

STEADY RAIN EDGE HAS SAGGED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF I-70. STILL ONE
MORE PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO FEED ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

DOUBTFUL ANY SNOW LIKELY TO COME WITH OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION BUT
TEMPS WILL FALL ENOUGH THAT ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP NORTH OF I-70
COULD SEE A LITTLE MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOUTH OF I-70 STILL EXPECT VERY SLOW SOUTH MOVEMENT OF RAIN AREA
AND VERY SLOW FALL OF TEMPS SO MAINLY RAIN UNTIL A FEW HOURS PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK AND JUST BARELY REACHING FREEZING THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOCUS IS ON THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO FAR
APART FROM EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SNOW AMOUNTS
BUT THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A TIGHT GRADIENT EXPECTED. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
MAY BE A MIX TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT IT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.

FORCING INCREASES AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES...AND
OUR AREA GETS INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ALSO
INCREASE.

THE FOCUS FOR THE FORCING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WEDNESDAY.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER POPS
SNEAKING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH /STILL LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA/. HOWEVER WITH THE CIRCULATION PROVIDED BY
THE UPPER JET EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN EVEN
MORE. THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN THAT AND THE HIGH POPS TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE FOR THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KENTUCKY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PRODUCE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOW
AMOUNTS...GOING FROM LITTLE SNOW TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN A RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTANCE /ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/.

THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL INDIANA LOOK TO SEE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HOWEVER WITH THE GRADIENT
MENTIONED ABOVE AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS AND LET ADDITIONAL DATA ARRIVE
BEFORE DECIDING TO GO TO WARNING. FOR NOW WENT NEAR 6 INCHES STORM
TOTAL IN THIS ROW WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH.
WENT 2-3 INCHES IN BLOOMINGTON/COLUMBUS AREA AND AROUND 1 INCH IN
INDY.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT EARLY THURSDAY WENT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
PROVIDE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QFP WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

RADAR LOOP INDICATES MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE KIND TERMINAL. WILL PROBABLY BE SOME PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE...BUT OVERALL SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION MAY NOT MOVE BACK INTO
THE KIND AREA UNTIL LATER TODAY.

MOST OF THE IFR CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM...SO WILL PULL THEM FROM THE FORECAST ON THE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

IT LOOKS LIKE FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL WAFFLE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE
BEEN FAVORING IFR. LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW SHOULD MOVE
BACK IN OVER THE TERMINALS...SAVE LAF...BY ISSUANCE TIME. BY
13Z...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN BE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR PER MODEL RH
TIME SECTIONS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND AROUND
AND ABOVE KNOTS AFTER 13Z...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 040742
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
242 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. AS IT DOES...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MINOR SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS ON PRECIP...DRYING OUT NORTHERN
COUNTIES A BIT FASTER PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

STEADY RAIN EDGE HAS SAGGED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF I-70. STILL ONE
MORE PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO FEED ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

DOUBTFUL ANY SNOW LIKELY TO COME WITH OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION BUT
TEMPS WILL FALL ENOUGH THAT ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP NORTH OF I-70
COULD SEE A LITTLE MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOUTH OF I-70 STILL EXPECT VERY SLOW SOUTH MOVEMENT OF RAIN AREA
AND VERY SLOW FALL OF TEMPS SO MAINLY RAIN UNTIL A FEW HOURS PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK AND JUST BARELY REACHING FREEZING THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOCUS IS ON THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO FAR
APART FROM EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SNOW AMOUNTS
BUT THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A TIGHT GRADIENT EXPECTED. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
MAY BE A MIX TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT IT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.

FORCING INCREASES AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES...AND
OUR AREA GETS INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ALSO
INCREASE.

THE FOCUS FOR THE FORCING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WEDNESDAY.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER POPS
SNEAKING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH /STILL LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA/. HOWEVER WITH THE CIRCULATION PROVIDED BY
THE UPPER JET EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN EVEN
MORE. THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN THAT AND THE HIGH POPS TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE FOR THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KENTUCKY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PRODUCE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOW
AMOUNTS...GOING FROM LITTLE SNOW TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN A RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTANCE /ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/.

THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL INDIANA LOOK TO SEE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HOWEVER WITH THE GRADIENT
MENTIONED ABOVE AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS AND LET ADDITIONAL DATA ARRIVE
BEFORE DECIDING TO GO TO WARNING. FOR NOW WENT NEAR 6 INCHES STORM
TOTAL IN THIS ROW WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH.
WENT 2-3 INCHES IN BLOOMINGTON/COLUMBUS AREA AND AROUND 1 INCH IN
INDY.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT EARLY THURSDAY WENT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
PROVIDE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QFP WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1138 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

IT LOOKS LIKE FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL WAFFLE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE
BEEN FAVORING IFR. LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW SHOULD MOVE
BACK IN OVER THE TERMINALS...SAVE LAF...BY ISSUANCE TIME. BY
13Z...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN BE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR PER MODEL RH
TIME SECTIONS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND AROUND
AND ABOVE KNOTS AFTER 13Z...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 040742
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
242 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. AS IT DOES...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MINOR SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS ON PRECIP...DRYING OUT NORTHERN
COUNTIES A BIT FASTER PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

STEADY RAIN EDGE HAS SAGGED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF I-70. STILL ONE
MORE PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO FEED ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

DOUBTFUL ANY SNOW LIKELY TO COME WITH OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION BUT
TEMPS WILL FALL ENOUGH THAT ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP NORTH OF I-70
COULD SEE A LITTLE MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOUTH OF I-70 STILL EXPECT VERY SLOW SOUTH MOVEMENT OF RAIN AREA
AND VERY SLOW FALL OF TEMPS SO MAINLY RAIN UNTIL A FEW HOURS PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK AND JUST BARELY REACHING FREEZING THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOCUS IS ON THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO FAR
APART FROM EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SNOW AMOUNTS
BUT THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A TIGHT GRADIENT EXPECTED. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
MAY BE A MIX TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT IT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.

FORCING INCREASES AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES...AND
OUR AREA GETS INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ALSO
INCREASE.

THE FOCUS FOR THE FORCING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WEDNESDAY.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER POPS
SNEAKING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH /STILL LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA/. HOWEVER WITH THE CIRCULATION PROVIDED BY
THE UPPER JET EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN EVEN
MORE. THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN THAT AND THE HIGH POPS TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE FOR THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KENTUCKY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PRODUCE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOW
AMOUNTS...GOING FROM LITTLE SNOW TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN A RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTANCE /ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/.

THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL INDIANA LOOK TO SEE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HOWEVER WITH THE GRADIENT
MENTIONED ABOVE AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS AND LET ADDITIONAL DATA ARRIVE
BEFORE DECIDING TO GO TO WARNING. FOR NOW WENT NEAR 6 INCHES STORM
TOTAL IN THIS ROW WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH.
WENT 2-3 INCHES IN BLOOMINGTON/COLUMBUS AREA AND AROUND 1 INCH IN
INDY.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT EARLY THURSDAY WENT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
PROVIDE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QFP WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1138 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

IT LOOKS LIKE FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL WAFFLE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE
BEEN FAVORING IFR. LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW SHOULD MOVE
BACK IN OVER THE TERMINALS...SAVE LAF...BY ISSUANCE TIME. BY
13Z...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN BE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR PER MODEL RH
TIME SECTIONS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND AROUND
AND ABOVE KNOTS AFTER 13Z...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 040742
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
242 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. AS IT DOES...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MINOR SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS ON PRECIP...DRYING OUT NORTHERN
COUNTIES A BIT FASTER PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

STEADY RAIN EDGE HAS SAGGED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF I-70. STILL ONE
MORE PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO FEED ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

DOUBTFUL ANY SNOW LIKELY TO COME WITH OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION BUT
TEMPS WILL FALL ENOUGH THAT ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP NORTH OF I-70
COULD SEE A LITTLE MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOUTH OF I-70 STILL EXPECT VERY SLOW SOUTH MOVEMENT OF RAIN AREA
AND VERY SLOW FALL OF TEMPS SO MAINLY RAIN UNTIL A FEW HOURS PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK AND JUST BARELY REACHING FREEZING THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOCUS IS ON THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO FAR
APART FROM EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SNOW AMOUNTS
BUT THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A TIGHT GRADIENT EXPECTED. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
MAY BE A MIX TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT IT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.

FORCING INCREASES AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES...AND
OUR AREA GETS INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ALSO
INCREASE.

THE FOCUS FOR THE FORCING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WEDNESDAY.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER POPS
SNEAKING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH /STILL LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA/. HOWEVER WITH THE CIRCULATION PROVIDED BY
THE UPPER JET EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN EVEN
MORE. THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN THAT AND THE HIGH POPS TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE FOR THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KENTUCKY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PRODUCE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOW
AMOUNTS...GOING FROM LITTLE SNOW TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN A RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTANCE /ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/.

THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL INDIANA LOOK TO SEE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HOWEVER WITH THE GRADIENT
MENTIONED ABOVE AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS AND LET ADDITIONAL DATA ARRIVE
BEFORE DECIDING TO GO TO WARNING. FOR NOW WENT NEAR 6 INCHES STORM
TOTAL IN THIS ROW WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH.
WENT 2-3 INCHES IN BLOOMINGTON/COLUMBUS AREA AND AROUND 1 INCH IN
INDY.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT EARLY THURSDAY WENT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
PROVIDE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QFP WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1138 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

IT LOOKS LIKE FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL WAFFLE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE
BEEN FAVORING IFR. LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW SHOULD MOVE
BACK IN OVER THE TERMINALS...SAVE LAF...BY ISSUANCE TIME. BY
13Z...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN BE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR PER MODEL RH
TIME SECTIONS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND AROUND
AND ABOVE KNOTS AFTER 13Z...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 040742
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
242 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. AS IT DOES...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MINOR SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS ON PRECIP...DRYING OUT NORTHERN
COUNTIES A BIT FASTER PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

STEADY RAIN EDGE HAS SAGGED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF I-70. STILL ONE
MORE PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO FEED ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

DOUBTFUL ANY SNOW LIKELY TO COME WITH OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION BUT
TEMPS WILL FALL ENOUGH THAT ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP NORTH OF I-70
COULD SEE A LITTLE MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOUTH OF I-70 STILL EXPECT VERY SLOW SOUTH MOVEMENT OF RAIN AREA
AND VERY SLOW FALL OF TEMPS SO MAINLY RAIN UNTIL A FEW HOURS PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK AND JUST BARELY REACHING FREEZING THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOCUS IS ON THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO FAR
APART FROM EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SNOW AMOUNTS
BUT THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A TIGHT GRADIENT EXPECTED. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
MAY BE A MIX TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT IT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.

FORCING INCREASES AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES...AND
OUR AREA GETS INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ALSO
INCREASE.

THE FOCUS FOR THE FORCING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WEDNESDAY.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER POPS
SNEAKING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH /STILL LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA/. HOWEVER WITH THE CIRCULATION PROVIDED BY
THE UPPER JET EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN EVEN
MORE. THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN THAT AND THE HIGH POPS TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE FOR THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KENTUCKY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PRODUCE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOW
AMOUNTS...GOING FROM LITTLE SNOW TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN A RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTANCE /ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/.

THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL INDIANA LOOK TO SEE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HOWEVER WITH THE GRADIENT
MENTIONED ABOVE AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS AND LET ADDITIONAL DATA ARRIVE
BEFORE DECIDING TO GO TO WARNING. FOR NOW WENT NEAR 6 INCHES STORM
TOTAL IN THIS ROW WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH.
WENT 2-3 INCHES IN BLOOMINGTON/COLUMBUS AREA AND AROUND 1 INCH IN
INDY.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT EARLY THURSDAY WENT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
PROVIDE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QFP WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1138 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

IT LOOKS LIKE FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL WAFFLE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE
BEEN FAVORING IFR. LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW SHOULD MOVE
BACK IN OVER THE TERMINALS...SAVE LAF...BY ISSUANCE TIME. BY
13Z...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN BE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR PER MODEL RH
TIME SECTIONS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND AROUND
AND ABOVE KNOTS AFTER 13Z...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 040438
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1138 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. AS IT DOES...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MINOR SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS ON PRECIP...DRYING OUT NORTHERN
COUNTIES A BIT FASTER PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

STEADY RAIN EDGE HAS SAGGED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF I-70. STILL ONE
MORE PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO FEED ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

DOUBTFUL ANY SNOW LIKELY TO COME WITH OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION BUT
TEMPS WILL FALL ENOUGH THAT ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP NORTH OF I-70
COULD SEE A LITTLE MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOUTH OF I-70 STILL EXPECT VERY SLOW SOUTH MOVEMENT OF RAIN AREA
AND VERY SLOW FALL OF TEMPS SO MAINLY RAIN UNTIL A FEW HOURS PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK AND JUST BARELY REACHING FREEZING THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOCUS IS ON THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO FAR
APART FROM EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SNOW AMOUNTS
BUT THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A TIGHT GRADIENT EXPECTED. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
MAY BE A MIX TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT IT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.

FORCING INCREASES AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES...AND
OUR AREA GETS INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ALSO
INCREASE.

THE FOCUS FOR THE FORCING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WEDNESDAY.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER POPS
SNEAKING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH /STILL LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA/. HOWEVER WITH THE CIRCULATION PROVIDED BY
THE UPPER JET EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN EVEN
MORE. THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN THAT AND THE HIGH POPS TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE FOR THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KENTUCKY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PRODUCE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOW
AMOUNTS...GOING FROM LITTLE SNOW TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN A RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTANCE /ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/.

THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL INDIANA LOOK TO SEE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HOWEVER WITH THE GRADIENT
MENTIONED ABOVE AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS AND LET ADDITIONAL DATA ARRIVE
BEFORE DECIDING TO GO TO WARNING. FOR NOW WENT NEAR 6 INCHES STORM
TOTAL IN THIS ROW WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH.
WENT 2-3 INCHES IN BLOOMINGTON/COLUMBUS AREA AND AROUND 1 INCH IN
INDY.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT EARLY THURSDAY WENT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
PROVIDE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE LONG TERM AS MODEL
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MORE ZONAL AND SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE U.S.  THE MEAN TROUGHINESS INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MODERATE OVER
REST OF THE LONG TERM AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE.  BY DAY 7
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.  ALL MODELS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1138 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

IT LOOKS LIKE FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL WAFFLE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE
BEEN FAVORING IFR. LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW SHOULD MOVE
BACK IN OVER THE TERMINALS...SAVE LAF...BY ISSUANCE TIME. BY
13Z...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN BE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR PER MODEL RH
TIME SECTIONS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND AROUND
AND ABOVE KNOTS AFTER 13Z...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 040238
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
938 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. AS IT DOES...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MINOR SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS ON PRECIP...DRYING OUT NORTHERN
COUNTIES A BIT FASTER PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

STEADY RAIN EDGE HAS SAGGED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF I-70. STILL ONE
MORE PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO FEED ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

DOUBTFUL ANY SNOW LIKELY TO COME WITH OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION BUT
TEMPS WILL FALL ENOUGH THAT ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP NORTH OF I-70
COULD SEE A LITTLE MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOUTH OF I-70 STILL EXPECT VERY SLOW SOUTH MOVEMENT OF RAIN AREA
AND VERY SLOW FALL OF TEMPS SO MAINLY RAIN UNTIL A FEW HOURS PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK AND JUST BARELY REACHING FREEZING THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOCUS IS ON THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO FAR
APART FROM EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SNOW AMOUNTS
BUT THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A TIGHT GRADIENT EXPECTED. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
MAY BE A MIX TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT IT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.

FORCING INCREASES AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES...AND
OUR AREA GETS INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ALSO
INCREASE.

THE FOCUS FOR THE FORCING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WEDNESDAY.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER POPS
SNEAKING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH /STILL LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA/. HOWEVER WITH THE CIRCULATION PROVIDED BY
THE UPPER JET EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN EVEN
MORE. THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN THAT AND THE HIGH POPS TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE FOR THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KENTUCKY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PRODUCE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOW
AMOUNTS...GOING FROM LITTLE SNOW TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN A RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTANCE /ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/.

THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL INDIANA LOOK TO SEE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HOWEVER WITH THE GRADIENT
MENTIONED ABOVE AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS AND LET ADDITIONAL DATA ARRIVE
BEFORE DECIDING TO GO TO WARNING. FOR NOW WENT NEAR 6 INCHES STORM
TOTAL IN THIS ROW WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH.
WENT 2-3 INCHES IN BLOOMINGTON/COLUMBUS AREA AND AROUND 1 INCH IN
INDY.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT EARLY THURSDAY WENT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
PROVIDE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE LONG TERM AS MODEL
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MORE ZONAL AND SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE U.S.  THE MEAN TROUGHINESS INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MODERATE OVER
REST OF THE LONG TERM AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE.  BY DAY 7
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.  ALL MODELS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE FOR 040300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 918 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

PULLED THE RAIN AND POOR VISIBILITY BASED ON TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

IFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 07Z AT LAF
AND AFTER 10Z AT IND AND HUF BUT MAY NOT DO SO AT BMG THROUGH
TOMORROW AS A BAROCLINIC SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
KENTUCKY AIDED BY RIGHT REAR PORTION OF UPPER JET. LINGER RAIN
SHOULD MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER 02Z AT LAF BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER. MEANWHILE...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE...THE OTHER TERMINALS
SHOULD SEE THE CHANGEOVER AFTER 06Z. THE SNOW MAY END FOR A FEW
HOURS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT IND AND HUF BEFORE RETURNING MIDDAY
TOMORROW.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS SHOULD
SLOWLY DROP OFF AND BECOME NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 040238
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
938 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. AS IT DOES...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MINOR SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS ON PRECIP...DRYING OUT NORTHERN
COUNTIES A BIT FASTER PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

STEADY RAIN EDGE HAS SAGGED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF I-70. STILL ONE
MORE PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO FEED ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

DOUBTFUL ANY SNOW LIKELY TO COME WITH OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION BUT
TEMPS WILL FALL ENOUGH THAT ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP NORTH OF I-70
COULD SEE A LITTLE MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOUTH OF I-70 STILL EXPECT VERY SLOW SOUTH MOVEMENT OF RAIN AREA
AND VERY SLOW FALL OF TEMPS SO MAINLY RAIN UNTIL A FEW HOURS PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK AND JUST BARELY REACHING FREEZING THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOCUS IS ON THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO FAR
APART FROM EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SNOW AMOUNTS
BUT THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A TIGHT GRADIENT EXPECTED. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
MAY BE A MIX TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT IT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.

FORCING INCREASES AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES...AND
OUR AREA GETS INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ALSO
INCREASE.

THE FOCUS FOR THE FORCING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WEDNESDAY.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER POPS
SNEAKING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH /STILL LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA/. HOWEVER WITH THE CIRCULATION PROVIDED BY
THE UPPER JET EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN EVEN
MORE. THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN THAT AND THE HIGH POPS TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE FOR THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KENTUCKY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PRODUCE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOW
AMOUNTS...GOING FROM LITTLE SNOW TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN A RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTANCE /ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/.

THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL INDIANA LOOK TO SEE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HOWEVER WITH THE GRADIENT
MENTIONED ABOVE AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS AND LET ADDITIONAL DATA ARRIVE
BEFORE DECIDING TO GO TO WARNING. FOR NOW WENT NEAR 6 INCHES STORM
TOTAL IN THIS ROW WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH.
WENT 2-3 INCHES IN BLOOMINGTON/COLUMBUS AREA AND AROUND 1 INCH IN
INDY.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT EARLY THURSDAY WENT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
PROVIDE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE LONG TERM AS MODEL
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MORE ZONAL AND SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE U.S.  THE MEAN TROUGHINESS INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MODERATE OVER
REST OF THE LONG TERM AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE.  BY DAY 7
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.  ALL MODELS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE FOR 040300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 918 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

PULLED THE RAIN AND POOR VISIBILITY BASED ON TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

IFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 07Z AT LAF
AND AFTER 10Z AT IND AND HUF BUT MAY NOT DO SO AT BMG THROUGH
TOMORROW AS A BAROCLINIC SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
KENTUCKY AIDED BY RIGHT REAR PORTION OF UPPER JET. LINGER RAIN
SHOULD MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER 02Z AT LAF BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER. MEANWHILE...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE...THE OTHER TERMINALS
SHOULD SEE THE CHANGEOVER AFTER 06Z. THE SNOW MAY END FOR A FEW
HOURS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT IND AND HUF BEFORE RETURNING MIDDAY
TOMORROW.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS SHOULD
SLOWLY DROP OFF AND BECOME NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 040238
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
938 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. AS IT DOES...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MINOR SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS ON PRECIP...DRYING OUT NORTHERN
COUNTIES A BIT FASTER PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

STEADY RAIN EDGE HAS SAGGED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF I-70. STILL ONE
MORE PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO FEED ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

DOUBTFUL ANY SNOW LIKELY TO COME WITH OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION BUT
TEMPS WILL FALL ENOUGH THAT ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP NORTH OF I-70
COULD SEE A LITTLE MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOUTH OF I-70 STILL EXPECT VERY SLOW SOUTH MOVEMENT OF RAIN AREA
AND VERY SLOW FALL OF TEMPS SO MAINLY RAIN UNTIL A FEW HOURS PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK AND JUST BARELY REACHING FREEZING THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOCUS IS ON THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO FAR
APART FROM EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SNOW AMOUNTS
BUT THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A TIGHT GRADIENT EXPECTED. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
MAY BE A MIX TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT IT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.

FORCING INCREASES AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES...AND
OUR AREA GETS INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ALSO
INCREASE.

THE FOCUS FOR THE FORCING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WEDNESDAY.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER POPS
SNEAKING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH /STILL LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA/. HOWEVER WITH THE CIRCULATION PROVIDED BY
THE UPPER JET EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN EVEN
MORE. THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN THAT AND THE HIGH POPS TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE FOR THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KENTUCKY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PRODUCE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOW
AMOUNTS...GOING FROM LITTLE SNOW TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN A RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTANCE /ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/.

THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL INDIANA LOOK TO SEE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HOWEVER WITH THE GRADIENT
MENTIONED ABOVE AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS AND LET ADDITIONAL DATA ARRIVE
BEFORE DECIDING TO GO TO WARNING. FOR NOW WENT NEAR 6 INCHES STORM
TOTAL IN THIS ROW WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH.
WENT 2-3 INCHES IN BLOOMINGTON/COLUMBUS AREA AND AROUND 1 INCH IN
INDY.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT EARLY THURSDAY WENT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
PROVIDE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE LONG TERM AS MODEL
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MORE ZONAL AND SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE U.S.  THE MEAN TROUGHINESS INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MODERATE OVER
REST OF THE LONG TERM AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE.  BY DAY 7
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.  ALL MODELS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE FOR 040300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 918 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

PULLED THE RAIN AND POOR VISIBILITY BASED ON TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

IFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 07Z AT LAF
AND AFTER 10Z AT IND AND HUF BUT MAY NOT DO SO AT BMG THROUGH
TOMORROW AS A BAROCLINIC SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
KENTUCKY AIDED BY RIGHT REAR PORTION OF UPPER JET. LINGER RAIN
SHOULD MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER 02Z AT LAF BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER. MEANWHILE...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE...THE OTHER TERMINALS
SHOULD SEE THE CHANGEOVER AFTER 06Z. THE SNOW MAY END FOR A FEW
HOURS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT IND AND HUF BEFORE RETURNING MIDDAY
TOMORROW.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS SHOULD
SLOWLY DROP OFF AND BECOME NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 040238
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
938 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. AS IT DOES...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MINOR SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS ON PRECIP...DRYING OUT NORTHERN
COUNTIES A BIT FASTER PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

STEADY RAIN EDGE HAS SAGGED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF I-70. STILL ONE
MORE PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO FEED ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

DOUBTFUL ANY SNOW LIKELY TO COME WITH OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION BUT
TEMPS WILL FALL ENOUGH THAT ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP NORTH OF I-70
COULD SEE A LITTLE MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOUTH OF I-70 STILL EXPECT VERY SLOW SOUTH MOVEMENT OF RAIN AREA
AND VERY SLOW FALL OF TEMPS SO MAINLY RAIN UNTIL A FEW HOURS PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK AND JUST BARELY REACHING FREEZING THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOCUS IS ON THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO FAR
APART FROM EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SNOW AMOUNTS
BUT THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A TIGHT GRADIENT EXPECTED. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
MAY BE A MIX TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT IT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.

FORCING INCREASES AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES...AND
OUR AREA GETS INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ALSO
INCREASE.

THE FOCUS FOR THE FORCING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WEDNESDAY.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER POPS
SNEAKING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH /STILL LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA/. HOWEVER WITH THE CIRCULATION PROVIDED BY
THE UPPER JET EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN EVEN
MORE. THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN THAT AND THE HIGH POPS TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE FOR THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KENTUCKY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PRODUCE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOW
AMOUNTS...GOING FROM LITTLE SNOW TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN A RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTANCE /ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/.

THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL INDIANA LOOK TO SEE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HOWEVER WITH THE GRADIENT
MENTIONED ABOVE AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS AND LET ADDITIONAL DATA ARRIVE
BEFORE DECIDING TO GO TO WARNING. FOR NOW WENT NEAR 6 INCHES STORM
TOTAL IN THIS ROW WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH.
WENT 2-3 INCHES IN BLOOMINGTON/COLUMBUS AREA AND AROUND 1 INCH IN
INDY.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT EARLY THURSDAY WENT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
PROVIDE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE LONG TERM AS MODEL
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MORE ZONAL AND SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE U.S.  THE MEAN TROUGHINESS INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MODERATE OVER
REST OF THE LONG TERM AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE.  BY DAY 7
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.  ALL MODELS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE FOR 040300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 918 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

PULLED THE RAIN AND POOR VISIBILITY BASED ON TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

IFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 07Z AT LAF
AND AFTER 10Z AT IND AND HUF BUT MAY NOT DO SO AT BMG THROUGH
TOMORROW AS A BAROCLINIC SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
KENTUCKY AIDED BY RIGHT REAR PORTION OF UPPER JET. LINGER RAIN
SHOULD MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER 02Z AT LAF BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER. MEANWHILE...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE...THE OTHER TERMINALS
SHOULD SEE THE CHANGEOVER AFTER 06Z. THE SNOW MAY END FOR A FEW
HOURS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT IND AND HUF BEFORE RETURNING MIDDAY
TOMORROW.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS SHOULD
SLOWLY DROP OFF AND BECOME NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 040218
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
918 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. AS IT DOES...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 721 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST. STEADY
RAINS NORTH EDGE HAS SHIFTED LITTLE OFF OF THE I70 CORRIDOR THOUGH
IT WILL EVENTUALLY LATER TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH.
THUS FAR PRECIP HAS ENDED BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OUT IN
ILLINOIS SO THIS MAY BE AN UPDATE TO BE REMOVED LATER THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOCUS IS ON THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO FAR
APART FROM EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SNOW AMOUNTS
BUT THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A TIGHT GRADIENT EXPECTED. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
MAY BE A MIX TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT IT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.

FORCING INCREASES AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES...AND
OUR AREA GETS INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ALSO
INCREASE.

THE FOCUS FOR THE FORCING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WEDNESDAY.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER POPS
SNEAKING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH /STILL LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA/. HOWEVER WITH THE CIRCULATION PROVIDED BY
THE UPPER JET EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN EVEN
MORE. THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN THAT AND THE HIGH POPS TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE FOR THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KENTUCKY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PRODUCE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOW
AMOUNTS...GOING FROM LITTLE SNOW TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN A RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTANCE /ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/.

THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL INDIANA LOOK TO SEE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HOWEVER WITH THE GRADIENT
MENTIONED ABOVE AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS AND LET ADDITIONAL DATA ARRIVE
BEFORE DECIDING TO GO TO WARNING. FOR NOW WENT NEAR 6 INCHES STORM
TOTAL IN THIS ROW WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH.
WENT 2-3 INCHES IN BLOOMINGTON/COLUMBUS AREA AND AROUND 1 INCH IN
INDY.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT EARLY THURSDAY WENT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
PROVIDE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE LONG TERM AS MODEL
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MORE ZONAL AND SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE U.S.  THE MEAN TROUGHINESS INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MODERATE OVER
REST OF THE LONG TERM AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE.  BY DAY 7
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.  ALL MODELS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE FOR 040300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 918 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

PULLED THE RAIN AND POOR VISIBILITY BASED ON TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

IFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 07Z AT LAF
AND AFTER 10Z AT IND AND HUF BUT MAY NOT DO SO AT BMG THROUGH
TOMORROW AS A BAROCLINIC SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
KENTUCKY AIDED BY RIGHT REAR PORTION OF UPPER JET. LINGER RAIN
SHOULD MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER 02Z AT LAF BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER. MEANWHILE...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE...THE OTHER TERMINALS
SHOULD SEE THE CHANGEOVER AFTER 06Z. THE SNOW MAY END FOR A FEW
HOURS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT IND AND HUF BEFORE RETURNING MIDDAY
TOMORROW.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS SHOULD
SLOWLY DROP OFF AND BECOME NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 040218
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
918 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. AS IT DOES...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 721 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST. STEADY
RAINS NORTH EDGE HAS SHIFTED LITTLE OFF OF THE I70 CORRIDOR THOUGH
IT WILL EVENTUALLY LATER TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH.
THUS FAR PRECIP HAS ENDED BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OUT IN
ILLINOIS SO THIS MAY BE AN UPDATE TO BE REMOVED LATER THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOCUS IS ON THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO FAR
APART FROM EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SNOW AMOUNTS
BUT THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A TIGHT GRADIENT EXPECTED. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
MAY BE A MIX TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT IT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.

FORCING INCREASES AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES...AND
OUR AREA GETS INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ALSO
INCREASE.

THE FOCUS FOR THE FORCING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WEDNESDAY.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER POPS
SNEAKING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH /STILL LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA/. HOWEVER WITH THE CIRCULATION PROVIDED BY
THE UPPER JET EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN EVEN
MORE. THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN THAT AND THE HIGH POPS TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE FOR THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KENTUCKY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PRODUCE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOW
AMOUNTS...GOING FROM LITTLE SNOW TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN A RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTANCE /ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/.

THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL INDIANA LOOK TO SEE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HOWEVER WITH THE GRADIENT
MENTIONED ABOVE AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS AND LET ADDITIONAL DATA ARRIVE
BEFORE DECIDING TO GO TO WARNING. FOR NOW WENT NEAR 6 INCHES STORM
TOTAL IN THIS ROW WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH.
WENT 2-3 INCHES IN BLOOMINGTON/COLUMBUS AREA AND AROUND 1 INCH IN
INDY.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT EARLY THURSDAY WENT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
PROVIDE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE LONG TERM AS MODEL
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MORE ZONAL AND SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE U.S.  THE MEAN TROUGHINESS INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MODERATE OVER
REST OF THE LONG TERM AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE.  BY DAY 7
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.  ALL MODELS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE FOR 040300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 918 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

PULLED THE RAIN AND POOR VISIBILITY BASED ON TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

IFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 07Z AT LAF
AND AFTER 10Z AT IND AND HUF BUT MAY NOT DO SO AT BMG THROUGH
TOMORROW AS A BAROCLINIC SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
KENTUCKY AIDED BY RIGHT REAR PORTION OF UPPER JET. LINGER RAIN
SHOULD MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER 02Z AT LAF BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER. MEANWHILE...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE...THE OTHER TERMINALS
SHOULD SEE THE CHANGEOVER AFTER 06Z. THE SNOW MAY END FOR A FEW
HOURS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT IND AND HUF BEFORE RETURNING MIDDAY
TOMORROW.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS SHOULD
SLOWLY DROP OFF AND BECOME NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 040218
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
918 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. AS IT DOES...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 721 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST. STEADY
RAINS NORTH EDGE HAS SHIFTED LITTLE OFF OF THE I70 CORRIDOR THOUGH
IT WILL EVENTUALLY LATER TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH.
THUS FAR PRECIP HAS ENDED BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OUT IN
ILLINOIS SO THIS MAY BE AN UPDATE TO BE REMOVED LATER THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOCUS IS ON THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO FAR
APART FROM EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SNOW AMOUNTS
BUT THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A TIGHT GRADIENT EXPECTED. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
MAY BE A MIX TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT IT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.

FORCING INCREASES AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES...AND
OUR AREA GETS INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ALSO
INCREASE.

THE FOCUS FOR THE FORCING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WEDNESDAY.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER POPS
SNEAKING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH /STILL LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA/. HOWEVER WITH THE CIRCULATION PROVIDED BY
THE UPPER JET EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN EVEN
MORE. THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN THAT AND THE HIGH POPS TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE FOR THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KENTUCKY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PRODUCE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOW
AMOUNTS...GOING FROM LITTLE SNOW TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN A RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTANCE /ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/.

THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL INDIANA LOOK TO SEE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HOWEVER WITH THE GRADIENT
MENTIONED ABOVE AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS AND LET ADDITIONAL DATA ARRIVE
BEFORE DECIDING TO GO TO WARNING. FOR NOW WENT NEAR 6 INCHES STORM
TOTAL IN THIS ROW WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH.
WENT 2-3 INCHES IN BLOOMINGTON/COLUMBUS AREA AND AROUND 1 INCH IN
INDY.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT EARLY THURSDAY WENT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
PROVIDE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE LONG TERM AS MODEL
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MORE ZONAL AND SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE U.S.  THE MEAN TROUGHINESS INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MODERATE OVER
REST OF THE LONG TERM AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE.  BY DAY 7
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.  ALL MODELS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE FOR 040300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 918 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

PULLED THE RAIN AND POOR VISIBILITY BASED ON TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

IFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 07Z AT LAF
AND AFTER 10Z AT IND AND HUF BUT MAY NOT DO SO AT BMG THROUGH
TOMORROW AS A BAROCLINIC SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
KENTUCKY AIDED BY RIGHT REAR PORTION OF UPPER JET. LINGER RAIN
SHOULD MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER 02Z AT LAF BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER. MEANWHILE...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE...THE OTHER TERMINALS
SHOULD SEE THE CHANGEOVER AFTER 06Z. THE SNOW MAY END FOR A FEW
HOURS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT IND AND HUF BEFORE RETURNING MIDDAY
TOMORROW.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS SHOULD
SLOWLY DROP OFF AND BECOME NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 040027
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
727 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. AS IT DOES...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 721 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST. STEADY
RAINS NORTH EDGE HAS SHIFTED LITTLE OFF OF THE I70 CORRIDOR THOUGH
IT WILL EVENTUALLY LATER TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH.
THUS FAR PRECIP HAS ENDED BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OUT IN
ILLINOIS SO THIS MAY BE AN UPDATE TO BE REMOVED LATER THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOCUS IS ON THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO FAR
APART FROM EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SNOW AMOUNTS
BUT THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A TIGHT GRADIENT EXPECTED. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
MAY BE A MIX TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT IT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.

FORCING INCREASES AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES...AND
OUR AREA GETS INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ALSO
INCREASE.

THE FOCUS FOR THE FORCING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WEDNESDAY.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER POPS
SNEAKING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH /STILL LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA/. HOWEVER WITH THE CIRCULATION PROVIDED BY
THE UPPER JET EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN EVEN
MORE. THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN THAT AND THE HIGH POPS TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE FOR THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KENTUCKY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PRODUCE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOW
AMOUNTS...GOING FROM LITTLE SNOW TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN A RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTANCE /ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/.

THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL INDIANA LOOK TO SEE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HOWEVER WITH THE GRADIENT
MENTIONED ABOVE AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS AND LET ADDITIONAL DATA ARRIVE
BEFORE DECIDING TO GO TO WARNING. FOR NOW WENT NEAR 6 INCHES STORM
TOTAL IN THIS ROW WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH.
WENT 2-3 INCHES IN BLOOMINGTON/COLUMBUS AREA AND AROUND 1 INCH IN
INDY.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT EARLY THURSDAY WENT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
PROVIDE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE LONG TERM AS MODEL
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MORE ZONAL AND SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE U.S.  THE MEAN TROUGHINESS INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MODERATE OVER
REST OF THE LONG TERM AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE.  BY DAY 7
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.  ALL MODELS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE FOR 040000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 522 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 07Z AT LAF
AND AFTER 10Z AT IND AND HUF BUT MAY NOT DO SO AT BMG THROUGH
TOMORROW AS A BAROCLINIC SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
KENTUCKY AIDED BY RIGHT REAR PORTION OF UPPER JET. LINGER RAIN
SHOULD MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER 02Z AT LAF BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER. MEANWHILE...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE...THE OTHER TERMINALS
SHOULD SEE THE CHANGEOVER AFTER 06Z. THE SNOW MAY END FOR A FEW
HOURS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT IND AND HUF BEFORE RETURNING MIDDAY
TOMORROW.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS SHOULD
SLOWLY DROP OFF AND BECOME NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 040027
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
727 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. AS IT DOES...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 721 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST. STEADY
RAINS NORTH EDGE HAS SHIFTED LITTLE OFF OF THE I70 CORRIDOR THOUGH
IT WILL EVENTUALLY LATER TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH.
THUS FAR PRECIP HAS ENDED BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OUT IN
ILLINOIS SO THIS MAY BE AN UPDATE TO BE REMOVED LATER THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOCUS IS ON THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO FAR
APART FROM EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SNOW AMOUNTS
BUT THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A TIGHT GRADIENT EXPECTED. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
MAY BE A MIX TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT IT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.

FORCING INCREASES AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES...AND
OUR AREA GETS INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ALSO
INCREASE.

THE FOCUS FOR THE FORCING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WEDNESDAY.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER POPS
SNEAKING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH /STILL LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA/. HOWEVER WITH THE CIRCULATION PROVIDED BY
THE UPPER JET EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN EVEN
MORE. THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN THAT AND THE HIGH POPS TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE FOR THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KENTUCKY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PRODUCE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOW
AMOUNTS...GOING FROM LITTLE SNOW TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN A RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTANCE /ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/.

THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL INDIANA LOOK TO SEE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HOWEVER WITH THE GRADIENT
MENTIONED ABOVE AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS AND LET ADDITIONAL DATA ARRIVE
BEFORE DECIDING TO GO TO WARNING. FOR NOW WENT NEAR 6 INCHES STORM
TOTAL IN THIS ROW WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH.
WENT 2-3 INCHES IN BLOOMINGTON/COLUMBUS AREA AND AROUND 1 INCH IN
INDY.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT EARLY THURSDAY WENT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
PROVIDE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE LONG TERM AS MODEL
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MORE ZONAL AND SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE U.S.  THE MEAN TROUGHINESS INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MODERATE OVER
REST OF THE LONG TERM AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE.  BY DAY 7
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.  ALL MODELS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE FOR 040000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 522 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 07Z AT LAF
AND AFTER 10Z AT IND AND HUF BUT MAY NOT DO SO AT BMG THROUGH
TOMORROW AS A BAROCLINIC SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
KENTUCKY AIDED BY RIGHT REAR PORTION OF UPPER JET. LINGER RAIN
SHOULD MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER 02Z AT LAF BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER. MEANWHILE...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE...THE OTHER TERMINALS
SHOULD SEE THE CHANGEOVER AFTER 06Z. THE SNOW MAY END FOR A FEW
HOURS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT IND AND HUF BEFORE RETURNING MIDDAY
TOMORROW.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS SHOULD
SLOWLY DROP OFF AND BECOME NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 040027
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
727 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. AS IT DOES...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 721 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST. STEADY
RAINS NORTH EDGE HAS SHIFTED LITTLE OFF OF THE I70 CORRIDOR THOUGH
IT WILL EVENTUALLY LATER TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH.
THUS FAR PRECIP HAS ENDED BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OUT IN
ILLINOIS SO THIS MAY BE AN UPDATE TO BE REMOVED LATER THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOCUS IS ON THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO FAR
APART FROM EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SNOW AMOUNTS
BUT THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A TIGHT GRADIENT EXPECTED. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
MAY BE A MIX TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT IT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.

FORCING INCREASES AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES...AND
OUR AREA GETS INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ALSO
INCREASE.

THE FOCUS FOR THE FORCING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WEDNESDAY.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER POPS
SNEAKING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH /STILL LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA/. HOWEVER WITH THE CIRCULATION PROVIDED BY
THE UPPER JET EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN EVEN
MORE. THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN THAT AND THE HIGH POPS TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE FOR THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KENTUCKY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PRODUCE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOW
AMOUNTS...GOING FROM LITTLE SNOW TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN A RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTANCE /ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/.

THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL INDIANA LOOK TO SEE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HOWEVER WITH THE GRADIENT
MENTIONED ABOVE AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS AND LET ADDITIONAL DATA ARRIVE
BEFORE DECIDING TO GO TO WARNING. FOR NOW WENT NEAR 6 INCHES STORM
TOTAL IN THIS ROW WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH.
WENT 2-3 INCHES IN BLOOMINGTON/COLUMBUS AREA AND AROUND 1 INCH IN
INDY.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT EARLY THURSDAY WENT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
PROVIDE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE LONG TERM AS MODEL
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MORE ZONAL AND SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE U.S.  THE MEAN TROUGHINESS INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MODERATE OVER
REST OF THE LONG TERM AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE.  BY DAY 7
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.  ALL MODELS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE FOR 040000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 522 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 07Z AT LAF
AND AFTER 10Z AT IND AND HUF BUT MAY NOT DO SO AT BMG THROUGH
TOMORROW AS A BAROCLINIC SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
KENTUCKY AIDED BY RIGHT REAR PORTION OF UPPER JET. LINGER RAIN
SHOULD MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER 02Z AT LAF BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER. MEANWHILE...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE...THE OTHER TERMINALS
SHOULD SEE THE CHANGEOVER AFTER 06Z. THE SNOW MAY END FOR A FEW
HOURS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT IND AND HUF BEFORE RETURNING MIDDAY
TOMORROW.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS SHOULD
SLOWLY DROP OFF AND BECOME NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 040027
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
727 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. AS IT DOES...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 721 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST. STEADY
RAINS NORTH EDGE HAS SHIFTED LITTLE OFF OF THE I70 CORRIDOR THOUGH
IT WILL EVENTUALLY LATER TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH.
THUS FAR PRECIP HAS ENDED BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OUT IN
ILLINOIS SO THIS MAY BE AN UPDATE TO BE REMOVED LATER THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOCUS IS ON THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO FAR
APART FROM EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SNOW AMOUNTS
BUT THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A TIGHT GRADIENT EXPECTED. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
MAY BE A MIX TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT IT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.

FORCING INCREASES AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES...AND
OUR AREA GETS INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ALSO
INCREASE.

THE FOCUS FOR THE FORCING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WEDNESDAY.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER POPS
SNEAKING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH /STILL LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA/. HOWEVER WITH THE CIRCULATION PROVIDED BY
THE UPPER JET EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN EVEN
MORE. THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN THAT AND THE HIGH POPS TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE FOR THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KENTUCKY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PRODUCE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOW
AMOUNTS...GOING FROM LITTLE SNOW TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN A RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTANCE /ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/.

THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL INDIANA LOOK TO SEE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HOWEVER WITH THE GRADIENT
MENTIONED ABOVE AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS AND LET ADDITIONAL DATA ARRIVE
BEFORE DECIDING TO GO TO WARNING. FOR NOW WENT NEAR 6 INCHES STORM
TOTAL IN THIS ROW WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH.
WENT 2-3 INCHES IN BLOOMINGTON/COLUMBUS AREA AND AROUND 1 INCH IN
INDY.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT EARLY THURSDAY WENT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
PROVIDE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE LONG TERM AS MODEL
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MORE ZONAL AND SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE U.S.  THE MEAN TROUGHINESS INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MODERATE OVER
REST OF THE LONG TERM AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE.  BY DAY 7
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.  ALL MODELS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE FOR 040000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 522 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 07Z AT LAF
AND AFTER 10Z AT IND AND HUF BUT MAY NOT DO SO AT BMG THROUGH
TOMORROW AS A BAROCLINIC SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
KENTUCKY AIDED BY RIGHT REAR PORTION OF UPPER JET. LINGER RAIN
SHOULD MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER 02Z AT LAF BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER. MEANWHILE...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE...THE OTHER TERMINALS
SHOULD SEE THE CHANGEOVER AFTER 06Z. THE SNOW MAY END FOR A FEW
HOURS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT IND AND HUF BEFORE RETURNING MIDDAY
TOMORROW.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS SHOULD
SLOWLY DROP OFF AND BECOME NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 032222
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
522 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. AS IT DOES...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA.

GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...SO WENT LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WENT CHANCE POPS.
POPS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH MOST PLACES IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
OR DRY BY 12Z.

AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA...SO EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

MAV MOS LOOKS TOO COLD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GIVEN THE
EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WENT
CLOSER TO A BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOCUS IS ON THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO FAR
APART FROM EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SNOW AMOUNTS
BUT THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A TIGHT GRADIENT EXPECTED. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
MAY BE A MIX TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT IT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.

FORCING INCREASES AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES...AND
OUR AREA GETS INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ALSO
INCREASE.

THE FOCUS FOR THE FORCING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WEDNESDAY.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER POPS
SNEAKING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH /STILL LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA/. HOWEVER WITH THE CIRCULATION PROVIDED BY
THE UPPER JET EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN EVEN
MORE. THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN THAT AND THE HIGH POPS TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE FOR THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KENTUCKY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PRODUCE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOW
AMOUNTS...GOING FROM LITTLE SNOW TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN A RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTANCE /ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/.

THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL INDIANA LOOK TO SEE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HOWEVER WITH THE GRADIENT
MENTIONED ABOVE AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS AND LET ADDITIONAL DATA ARRIVE
BEFORE DECIDING TO GO TO WARNING. FOR NOW WENT NEAR 6 INCHES STORM
TOTAL IN THIS ROW WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH.
WENT 2-3 INCHES IN BLOOMINGTON/COLUMBUS AREA AND AROUND 1 INCH IN
INDY.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT EARLY THURSDAY WENT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
PROVIDE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE LONG TERM AS MODEL
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MORE ZONAL AND SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE U.S.  THE MEAN TROUGHINESS INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MODERATE OVER
REST OF THE LONG TERM AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE.  BY DAY 7
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.  ALL MODELS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE FOR 040000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 522 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 07Z AT LAF
AND AFTER 10Z AT IND AND HUF BUT MAY NOT DO SO AT BMG THROUGH
TOMORROW AS A BAROCLINIC SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
KENTUCKY AIDED BY RIGHT REAR PORTION OF UPPER JET. LINGER RAIN
SHOULD MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER 02Z AT LAF BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER. MEANWHILE...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE...THE OTHER TERMINALS
SHOULD SEE THE CHANGEOVER AFTER 06Z. THE SNOW MAY END FOR A FEW
HOURS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT IND AND HUF BEFORE RETURNING MIDDAY
TOMORROW.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS SHOULD
SLOWLY DROP OFF AND BECOME NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 032035
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
335 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. AS IT DOES...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA.

GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...SO WENT LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WENT CHANCE POPS.
POPS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH MOST PLACES IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
OR DRY BY 12Z.

AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA...SO EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

MAV MOS LOOKS TOO COLD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GIVEN THE
EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WENT
CLOSER TO A BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOCUS IS ON THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO FAR
APART FROM EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SNOW AMOUNTS
BUT THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A TIGHT GRADIENT EXPECTED. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
MAY BE A MIX TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT IT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.

FORCING INCREASES AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES...AND
OUR AREA GETS INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ALSO
INCREASE.

THE FOCUS FOR THE FORCING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WEDNESDAY.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER POPS
SNEAKING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH /STILL LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA/. HOWEVER WITH THE CIRCULATION PROVIDED BY
THE UPPER JET EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN EVEN
MORE. THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN THAT AND THE HIGH POPS TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE FOR THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KENTUCKY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PRODUCE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOW
AMOUNTS...GOING FROM LITTLE SNOW TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN A RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTANCE /ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/.

THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL INDIANA LOOK TO SEE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HOWEVER WITH THE GRADIENT
MENTIONED ABOVE AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS AND LET ADDITIONAL DATA ARRIVE
BEFORE DECIDING TO GO TO WARNING. FOR NOW WENT NEAR 6 INCHES STORM
TOTAL IN THIS ROW WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH.
WENT 2-3 INCHES IN BLOOMINGTON/COLUMBUS AREA AND AROUND 1 INCH IN
INDY.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT EARLY THURSDAY WENT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
PROVIDE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE LONG TERM AS MODEL
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MORE ZONAL AND SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE U.S.  THE MEAN TROUGHINESS INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MODERATE OVER
REST OF THE LONG TERM AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE.  BY DAY 7
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.  ALL MODELS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE FOR 031800Z KIND TAF/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR VSBY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 050500Z WITH COMBINATION OF FOG OVER
WARM GROUND AND PERIODS OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE. CLOUD DECKS TO REMAIN
BELOW 2000 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS GRADUALLY VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST THEN NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY 04000Z
AND DROP BELOW 10 KTS AFTER 040500Z.

RAIN TO BECOME MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW AND SLEET AFTER 040500Z AS
COLDER AIR BEGINS SETTLING IN BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT BY THEN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 032035
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
335 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. AS IT DOES...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA.

GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...SO WENT LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WENT CHANCE POPS.
POPS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH MOST PLACES IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
OR DRY BY 12Z.

AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA...SO EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

MAV MOS LOOKS TOO COLD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GIVEN THE
EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WENT
CLOSER TO A BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOCUS IS ON THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO FAR
APART FROM EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SNOW AMOUNTS
BUT THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A TIGHT GRADIENT EXPECTED. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
MAY BE A MIX TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT IT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.

FORCING INCREASES AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES...AND
OUR AREA GETS INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ALSO
INCREASE.

THE FOCUS FOR THE FORCING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WEDNESDAY.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER POPS
SNEAKING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH /STILL LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA/. HOWEVER WITH THE CIRCULATION PROVIDED BY
THE UPPER JET EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN EVEN
MORE. THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN THAT AND THE HIGH POPS TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE FOR THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KENTUCKY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PRODUCE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOW
AMOUNTS...GOING FROM LITTLE SNOW TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN A RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTANCE /ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/.

THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL INDIANA LOOK TO SEE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HOWEVER WITH THE GRADIENT
MENTIONED ABOVE AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS AND LET ADDITIONAL DATA ARRIVE
BEFORE DECIDING TO GO TO WARNING. FOR NOW WENT NEAR 6 INCHES STORM
TOTAL IN THIS ROW WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH.
WENT 2-3 INCHES IN BLOOMINGTON/COLUMBUS AREA AND AROUND 1 INCH IN
INDY.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT EARLY THURSDAY WENT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
PROVIDE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE LONG TERM AS MODEL
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MORE ZONAL AND SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE U.S.  THE MEAN TROUGHINESS INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MODERATE OVER
REST OF THE LONG TERM AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE.  BY DAY 7
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.  ALL MODELS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE FOR 031800Z KIND TAF/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR VSBY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 050500Z WITH COMBINATION OF FOG OVER
WARM GROUND AND PERIODS OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE. CLOUD DECKS TO REMAIN
BELOW 2000 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS GRADUALLY VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST THEN NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY 04000Z
AND DROP BELOW 10 KTS AFTER 040500Z.

RAIN TO BECOME MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW AND SLEET AFTER 040500Z AS
COLDER AIR BEGINS SETTLING IN BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT BY THEN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 032011
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM...AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. AS IT DOES...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA.

GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...SO WENT LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WENT CHANCE POPS.
POPS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH MOST PLACES IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
OR DRY BY 12Z.

AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA...SO EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

MAV MOS LOOKS TOO COLD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GIVEN THE
EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WENT
CLOSER TO A BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOCUS IS ON THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO FAR
APART FROM EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SNOW AMOUNTS
BUT THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A TIGHT GRADIENT EXPECTED. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
MAY BE A MIX TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT IT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.

FORCING INCREASES AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES...AND
OUR AREA GETS INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ALSO
INCREASE.

THE FOCUS FOR THE FORCING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WEDNESDAY.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER POPS
SNEAKING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH /STILL LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA/. HOWEVER WITH THE CIRCULATION PROVIDED BY
THE UPPER JET EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN EVEN
MORE. THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN THAT AND THE HIGH POPS TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE FOR THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KENTUCKY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PRODUCE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOW
AMOUNTS...GOING FROM LITTLE SNOW TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN A RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTANCE /ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/.

THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL INDIANA LOOK TO SEE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HOWEVER WITH THE GRADIENT
MENTIONED ABOVE AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS AND LET ADDITIONAL DATA ARRIVE
BEFORE DECIDING TO GO TO WARNING. FOR NOW WENT NEAR 6 INCHES STORM
TOTAL IN THIS ROW WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH.
WENT 2-3 INCHES IN BLOOMINGTON/COLUMBUS AREA AND AROUND 1 INCH IN
INDY.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT EARLY THURSDAY WENT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
PROVIDE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE LONG TERM AS MODEL
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MORE ZONAL AND SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE U.S.  THE MEAN TROUGHINESS INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MODERATE OVER
REST OF THE LONG TERM AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE.  BY DAY 7
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.  ALL MODELS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING AND EXPECT ONLY RAIN REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. WEATHER DEPICTION INDICATES
CEILINGS AVERAGING AROUND 5 HUNDRED FEET AND VISIBILITIES ONE AND
HALF TO TWO MILES.  EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO EARLY
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT AS COLDER AND DRIER
AIR SPREADS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND THERE SHOULD BE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILINGS
AROUND 15 HUNDRED FEET.  A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SNOW OVER
CENTRAL SECTIONS AND SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS WILL VEER TO
THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BECOME NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 032011
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM...AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. AS IT DOES...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA.

GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...SO WENT LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WENT CHANCE POPS.
POPS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH MOST PLACES IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
OR DRY BY 12Z.

AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA...SO EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

MAV MOS LOOKS TOO COLD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GIVEN THE
EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WENT
CLOSER TO A BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOCUS IS ON THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO FAR
APART FROM EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SNOW AMOUNTS
BUT THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A TIGHT GRADIENT EXPECTED. GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
MAY BE A MIX TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT IT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.

FORCING INCREASES AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES...AND
OUR AREA GETS INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ALSO
INCREASE.

THE FOCUS FOR THE FORCING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WEDNESDAY.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER POPS
SNEAKING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH /STILL LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA/. HOWEVER WITH THE CIRCULATION PROVIDED BY
THE UPPER JET EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN EVEN
MORE. THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN THAT AND THE HIGH POPS TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE FOR THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KENTUCKY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PRODUCE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOW
AMOUNTS...GOING FROM LITTLE SNOW TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN A RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTANCE /ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/.

THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL INDIANA LOOK TO SEE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HOWEVER WITH THE GRADIENT
MENTIONED ABOVE AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS AND LET ADDITIONAL DATA ARRIVE
BEFORE DECIDING TO GO TO WARNING. FOR NOW WENT NEAR 6 INCHES STORM
TOTAL IN THIS ROW WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH.
WENT 2-3 INCHES IN BLOOMINGTON/COLUMBUS AREA AND AROUND 1 INCH IN
INDY.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT EARLY THURSDAY WENT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
PROVIDE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE LONG TERM AS MODEL
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MORE ZONAL AND SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE U.S.  THE MEAN TROUGHINESS INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MODERATE OVER
REST OF THE LONG TERM AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE.  BY DAY 7
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.  ALL MODELS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING AND EXPECT ONLY RAIN REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. WEATHER DEPICTION INDICATES
CEILINGS AVERAGING AROUND 5 HUNDRED FEET AND VISIBILITIES ONE AND
HALF TO TWO MILES.  EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO EARLY
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT AS COLDER AND DRIER
AIR SPREADS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND THERE SHOULD BE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILINGS
AROUND 15 HUNDRED FEET.  A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SNOW OVER
CENTRAL SECTIONS AND SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS WILL VEER TO
THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BECOME NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 031743
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1242 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING FEATURING THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN THURSDAY WITH DRY CHILLY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

EXTENDED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY NORTHEAST DUE TO STUBBORN COLD AIR.
MAIN IMPACTS WILL NOW BE MAINLY SEEN ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW...

FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE MIX
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES THIS MORNING
ADDITIONAL HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE MAINLY BELOW 32 AT THE
MOMENT...WITH WET BULB TEMPERATURES EVEN COLDER.

EVEN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE ABOVE
32...SURFACE IS LIKELY STILL AT OR BELOW 32 ALLOWING FOR SOME
FREEZING. THUS CONTINUED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ALL AREAS. MAY BE
ABLE TO CLEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE NOON IF TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO RISE QUICKER THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY NEARING 30 DEGREES.

REALLY FEELS LIKE WE ARE GETTING THE KITCHEN SINK TOSSED AT US OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW ALL ON THE
DOCKET. FIRST FOCUS IS ON THE ICING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.

OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NOW REPORTING FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN
PRECIP...WHICH IS PROBABLY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THINK
SLEET IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AT ONSET AS THE DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ERODES. THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER ARE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP STARTING. SURFACE TEMPS THEN BECOME
THE MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LONG THE FREEZING RAIN LASTS. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED A BIT TOO COOL OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT IN GENERAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB FURTHER SOUTH. RAP/HRRR/WRF
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE 32F FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING BUT HINTING AT A DELAY
OVER EARLIER GUIDANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL APPEARS ENTIRE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.

OVERALL QPF VALUES FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE 0.10 TO 0.15
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND THE TIMING COULD NOT BE WORSE AS THE
MORNING RUSH WILL BE IMPACTED. IN AN EFFORT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF
THE IMPACTS...GOING TO SWITCH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND STRESS THE ICING POTENTIAL. IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. EVEN AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE
32F...THE FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY LEND TO AT LEAST SOME ICING TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMP CAN GET TO 33-34F LATER IN THE
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOLAR RADIATION WILL WORK AS AN OPPOSING
FORCE TO MINIMIZE ICING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AS EARLY MARCH
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY EFFICIENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 17Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN FALL AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTHWEST TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE
SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS
CONSIDERING THE FROZEN GROUND AND AMBIENT SNOWPACK WHICH WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY MELT. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING REMAIN CONCERNS
GOING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

TEMPS...UTILIZED RAP/HRRR BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
BIT WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...MIXING
WITH THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINOR...ON THE ORDER OF A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT BEST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH DRY COLD
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE OF IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A CLEAR TREND.
NAM/WRF/UKMET ALL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA. OP GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW SETUP. THE SREF/ECMWF/GGEM ARE ALL IN
BETWEEN.

A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS WARRANTED RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SAME TIME...RULING OUT THE MORE NORTHERN
NAM/WRF/UKMET GROUP COMPLETELY WOULD BE FOOLISH...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW THE UKMET HAS PERFORMED AS OF LATE. PRESENCE OF
DEFORMATION BANDING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE AND A
STRONG PHASED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH ARGUE IN A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION THAN THE OP GFS. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
JET TO OUR N/NW SHOULD ENHANCE FORCING AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGHER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1 WOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON POTENTIAL ACCUMS.

TAKING THIS ALL INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL THINKING IS A SHARP CUTOFF ALIGNING SOMEWHERE OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. TAKE AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY UP TO 5 TO
POSSIBLY 6 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM BEDFORD TO SEYMOUR.
WILL INTRODUCE A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS TIME IN SNOW AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 6 INCHES. SHOULD THE CONSENSUS TREND TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN MODEL CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. STAY TUNED AS
THIS SETUP REMAINS FLUID AND IS LIKELY TO CHANGE FURTHER IN THE
COMING 24-36 HOURS.

ANY SNOW WILL END BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TAKING
OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAVMOS WEDNESDAY...THEN TOOK A
BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. NEAR MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT THEN UNDERCUT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. STRONG LIKELIHOOD ANOTHER RECORD FALLS AT
INDY. LOW MAX OF 18 (1960) ON THURSDAY IN DANGER. MAYBE EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE..COULD SEE OUR FIRST MARCH SUBZERO MORNING IN 31 YEARS ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING AND EXPECT ONLY RAIN REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. WEATHER DEPICTION INDICATES
CEILINGS AVERAGING AROUND 5 HUNDRED FEET AND VISIBILITIES ONE AND
HALF TO TWO MILES.  EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO EARLY
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT AS COLDER AND DRIER
AIR SPREADS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND THERE SHOULD BE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILINGS
AROUND 15 HUNDRED FEET.  A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SNOW OVER
CENTRAL SECTIONS AND SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS WILL VEER TO
THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BECOME NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ021-
029>031-037>042-049.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/50
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 031743
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1242 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING FEATURING THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN THURSDAY WITH DRY CHILLY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

EXTENDED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY NORTHEAST DUE TO STUBBORN COLD AIR.
MAIN IMPACTS WILL NOW BE MAINLY SEEN ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW...

FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE MIX
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES THIS MORNING
ADDITIONAL HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE MAINLY BELOW 32 AT THE
MOMENT...WITH WET BULB TEMPERATURES EVEN COLDER.

EVEN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE ABOVE
32...SURFACE IS LIKELY STILL AT OR BELOW 32 ALLOWING FOR SOME
FREEZING. THUS CONTINUED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ALL AREAS. MAY BE
ABLE TO CLEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE NOON IF TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO RISE QUICKER THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY NEARING 30 DEGREES.

REALLY FEELS LIKE WE ARE GETTING THE KITCHEN SINK TOSSED AT US OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW ALL ON THE
DOCKET. FIRST FOCUS IS ON THE ICING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.

OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NOW REPORTING FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN
PRECIP...WHICH IS PROBABLY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THINK
SLEET IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AT ONSET AS THE DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ERODES. THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER ARE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP STARTING. SURFACE TEMPS THEN BECOME
THE MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LONG THE FREEZING RAIN LASTS. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED A BIT TOO COOL OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT IN GENERAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB FURTHER SOUTH. RAP/HRRR/WRF
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE 32F FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING BUT HINTING AT A DELAY
OVER EARLIER GUIDANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL APPEARS ENTIRE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.

OVERALL QPF VALUES FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE 0.10 TO 0.15
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND THE TIMING COULD NOT BE WORSE AS THE
MORNING RUSH WILL BE IMPACTED. IN AN EFFORT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF
THE IMPACTS...GOING TO SWITCH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND STRESS THE ICING POTENTIAL. IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. EVEN AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE
32F...THE FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY LEND TO AT LEAST SOME ICING TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMP CAN GET TO 33-34F LATER IN THE
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOLAR RADIATION WILL WORK AS AN OPPOSING
FORCE TO MINIMIZE ICING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AS EARLY MARCH
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY EFFICIENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 17Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN FALL AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTHWEST TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE
SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS
CONSIDERING THE FROZEN GROUND AND AMBIENT SNOWPACK WHICH WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY MELT. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING REMAIN CONCERNS
GOING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

TEMPS...UTILIZED RAP/HRRR BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
BIT WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...MIXING
WITH THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINOR...ON THE ORDER OF A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT BEST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH DRY COLD
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE OF IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A CLEAR TREND.
NAM/WRF/UKMET ALL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA. OP GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW SETUP. THE SREF/ECMWF/GGEM ARE ALL IN
BETWEEN.

A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS WARRANTED RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SAME TIME...RULING OUT THE MORE NORTHERN
NAM/WRF/UKMET GROUP COMPLETELY WOULD BE FOOLISH...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW THE UKMET HAS PERFORMED AS OF LATE. PRESENCE OF
DEFORMATION BANDING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE AND A
STRONG PHASED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH ARGUE IN A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION THAN THE OP GFS. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
JET TO OUR N/NW SHOULD ENHANCE FORCING AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGHER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1 WOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON POTENTIAL ACCUMS.

TAKING THIS ALL INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL THINKING IS A SHARP CUTOFF ALIGNING SOMEWHERE OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. TAKE AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY UP TO 5 TO
POSSIBLY 6 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM BEDFORD TO SEYMOUR.
WILL INTRODUCE A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS TIME IN SNOW AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 6 INCHES. SHOULD THE CONSENSUS TREND TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN MODEL CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. STAY TUNED AS
THIS SETUP REMAINS FLUID AND IS LIKELY TO CHANGE FURTHER IN THE
COMING 24-36 HOURS.

ANY SNOW WILL END BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TAKING
OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAVMOS WEDNESDAY...THEN TOOK A
BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. NEAR MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT THEN UNDERCUT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. STRONG LIKELIHOOD ANOTHER RECORD FALLS AT
INDY. LOW MAX OF 18 (1960) ON THURSDAY IN DANGER. MAYBE EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE..COULD SEE OUR FIRST MARCH SUBZERO MORNING IN 31 YEARS ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING AND EXPECT ONLY RAIN REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. WEATHER DEPICTION INDICATES
CEILINGS AVERAGING AROUND 5 HUNDRED FEET AND VISIBILITIES ONE AND
HALF TO TWO MILES.  EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO EARLY
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT AS COLDER AND DRIER
AIR SPREADS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND THERE SHOULD BE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILINGS
AROUND 15 HUNDRED FEET.  A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SNOW OVER
CENTRAL SECTIONS AND SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS WILL VEER TO
THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BECOME NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ021-
029>031-037>042-049.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/50
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 031743
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1242 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING FEATURING THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN THURSDAY WITH DRY CHILLY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

EXTENDED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY NORTHEAST DUE TO STUBBORN COLD AIR.
MAIN IMPACTS WILL NOW BE MAINLY SEEN ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW...

FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE MIX
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES THIS MORNING
ADDITIONAL HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE MAINLY BELOW 32 AT THE
MOMENT...WITH WET BULB TEMPERATURES EVEN COLDER.

EVEN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE ABOVE
32...SURFACE IS LIKELY STILL AT OR BELOW 32 ALLOWING FOR SOME
FREEZING. THUS CONTINUED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ALL AREAS. MAY BE
ABLE TO CLEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE NOON IF TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO RISE QUICKER THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY NEARING 30 DEGREES.

REALLY FEELS LIKE WE ARE GETTING THE KITCHEN SINK TOSSED AT US OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW ALL ON THE
DOCKET. FIRST FOCUS IS ON THE ICING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.

OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NOW REPORTING FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN
PRECIP...WHICH IS PROBABLY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THINK
SLEET IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AT ONSET AS THE DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ERODES. THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER ARE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP STARTING. SURFACE TEMPS THEN BECOME
THE MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LONG THE FREEZING RAIN LASTS. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED A BIT TOO COOL OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT IN GENERAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB FURTHER SOUTH. RAP/HRRR/WRF
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE 32F FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING BUT HINTING AT A DELAY
OVER EARLIER GUIDANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL APPEARS ENTIRE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.

OVERALL QPF VALUES FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE 0.10 TO 0.15
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND THE TIMING COULD NOT BE WORSE AS THE
MORNING RUSH WILL BE IMPACTED. IN AN EFFORT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF
THE IMPACTS...GOING TO SWITCH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND STRESS THE ICING POTENTIAL. IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. EVEN AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE
32F...THE FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY LEND TO AT LEAST SOME ICING TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMP CAN GET TO 33-34F LATER IN THE
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOLAR RADIATION WILL WORK AS AN OPPOSING
FORCE TO MINIMIZE ICING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AS EARLY MARCH
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY EFFICIENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 17Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN FALL AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTHWEST TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE
SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS
CONSIDERING THE FROZEN GROUND AND AMBIENT SNOWPACK WHICH WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY MELT. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING REMAIN CONCERNS
GOING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

TEMPS...UTILIZED RAP/HRRR BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
BIT WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...MIXING
WITH THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINOR...ON THE ORDER OF A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT BEST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH DRY COLD
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE OF IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A CLEAR TREND.
NAM/WRF/UKMET ALL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA. OP GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW SETUP. THE SREF/ECMWF/GGEM ARE ALL IN
BETWEEN.

A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS WARRANTED RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SAME TIME...RULING OUT THE MORE NORTHERN
NAM/WRF/UKMET GROUP COMPLETELY WOULD BE FOOLISH...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW THE UKMET HAS PERFORMED AS OF LATE. PRESENCE OF
DEFORMATION BANDING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE AND A
STRONG PHASED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH ARGUE IN A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION THAN THE OP GFS. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
JET TO OUR N/NW SHOULD ENHANCE FORCING AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGHER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1 WOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON POTENTIAL ACCUMS.

TAKING THIS ALL INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL THINKING IS A SHARP CUTOFF ALIGNING SOMEWHERE OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. TAKE AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY UP TO 5 TO
POSSIBLY 6 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM BEDFORD TO SEYMOUR.
WILL INTRODUCE A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS TIME IN SNOW AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 6 INCHES. SHOULD THE CONSENSUS TREND TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN MODEL CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. STAY TUNED AS
THIS SETUP REMAINS FLUID AND IS LIKELY TO CHANGE FURTHER IN THE
COMING 24-36 HOURS.

ANY SNOW WILL END BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TAKING
OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAVMOS WEDNESDAY...THEN TOOK A
BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. NEAR MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT THEN UNDERCUT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. STRONG LIKELIHOOD ANOTHER RECORD FALLS AT
INDY. LOW MAX OF 18 (1960) ON THURSDAY IN DANGER. MAYBE EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE..COULD SEE OUR FIRST MARCH SUBZERO MORNING IN 31 YEARS ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING AND EXPECT ONLY RAIN REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. WEATHER DEPICTION INDICATES
CEILINGS AVERAGING AROUND 5 HUNDRED FEET AND VISIBILITIES ONE AND
HALF TO TWO MILES.  EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO EARLY
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT AS COLDER AND DRIER
AIR SPREADS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND THERE SHOULD BE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILINGS
AROUND 15 HUNDRED FEET.  A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SNOW OVER
CENTRAL SECTIONS AND SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS WILL VEER TO
THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BECOME NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ021-
029>031-037>042-049.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/50
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 031743
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1242 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING FEATURING THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN THURSDAY WITH DRY CHILLY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

EXTENDED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY NORTHEAST DUE TO STUBBORN COLD AIR.
MAIN IMPACTS WILL NOW BE MAINLY SEEN ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW...

FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE MIX
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES THIS MORNING
ADDITIONAL HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE MAINLY BELOW 32 AT THE
MOMENT...WITH WET BULB TEMPERATURES EVEN COLDER.

EVEN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE ABOVE
32...SURFACE IS LIKELY STILL AT OR BELOW 32 ALLOWING FOR SOME
FREEZING. THUS CONTINUED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ALL AREAS. MAY BE
ABLE TO CLEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE NOON IF TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO RISE QUICKER THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY NEARING 30 DEGREES.

REALLY FEELS LIKE WE ARE GETTING THE KITCHEN SINK TOSSED AT US OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW ALL ON THE
DOCKET. FIRST FOCUS IS ON THE ICING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.

OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NOW REPORTING FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN
PRECIP...WHICH IS PROBABLY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THINK
SLEET IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AT ONSET AS THE DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ERODES. THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER ARE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP STARTING. SURFACE TEMPS THEN BECOME
THE MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LONG THE FREEZING RAIN LASTS. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED A BIT TOO COOL OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT IN GENERAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB FURTHER SOUTH. RAP/HRRR/WRF
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE 32F FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING BUT HINTING AT A DELAY
OVER EARLIER GUIDANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL APPEARS ENTIRE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.

OVERALL QPF VALUES FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE 0.10 TO 0.15
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND THE TIMING COULD NOT BE WORSE AS THE
MORNING RUSH WILL BE IMPACTED. IN AN EFFORT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF
THE IMPACTS...GOING TO SWITCH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND STRESS THE ICING POTENTIAL. IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. EVEN AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE
32F...THE FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY LEND TO AT LEAST SOME ICING TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMP CAN GET TO 33-34F LATER IN THE
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOLAR RADIATION WILL WORK AS AN OPPOSING
FORCE TO MINIMIZE ICING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AS EARLY MARCH
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY EFFICIENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 17Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN FALL AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTHWEST TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE
SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS
CONSIDERING THE FROZEN GROUND AND AMBIENT SNOWPACK WHICH WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY MELT. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING REMAIN CONCERNS
GOING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

TEMPS...UTILIZED RAP/HRRR BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
BIT WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...MIXING
WITH THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINOR...ON THE ORDER OF A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT BEST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH DRY COLD
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE OF IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A CLEAR TREND.
NAM/WRF/UKMET ALL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA. OP GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW SETUP. THE SREF/ECMWF/GGEM ARE ALL IN
BETWEEN.

A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS WARRANTED RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SAME TIME...RULING OUT THE MORE NORTHERN
NAM/WRF/UKMET GROUP COMPLETELY WOULD BE FOOLISH...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW THE UKMET HAS PERFORMED AS OF LATE. PRESENCE OF
DEFORMATION BANDING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE AND A
STRONG PHASED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH ARGUE IN A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION THAN THE OP GFS. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
JET TO OUR N/NW SHOULD ENHANCE FORCING AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGHER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1 WOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON POTENTIAL ACCUMS.

TAKING THIS ALL INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL THINKING IS A SHARP CUTOFF ALIGNING SOMEWHERE OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. TAKE AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY UP TO 5 TO
POSSIBLY 6 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM BEDFORD TO SEYMOUR.
WILL INTRODUCE A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS TIME IN SNOW AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 6 INCHES. SHOULD THE CONSENSUS TREND TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN MODEL CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. STAY TUNED AS
THIS SETUP REMAINS FLUID AND IS LIKELY TO CHANGE FURTHER IN THE
COMING 24-36 HOURS.

ANY SNOW WILL END BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TAKING
OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAVMOS WEDNESDAY...THEN TOOK A
BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. NEAR MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT THEN UNDERCUT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. STRONG LIKELIHOOD ANOTHER RECORD FALLS AT
INDY. LOW MAX OF 18 (1960) ON THURSDAY IN DANGER. MAYBE EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE..COULD SEE OUR FIRST MARCH SUBZERO MORNING IN 31 YEARS ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING AND EXPECT ONLY RAIN REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. WEATHER DEPICTION INDICATES
CEILINGS AVERAGING AROUND 5 HUNDRED FEET AND VISIBILITIES ONE AND
HALF TO TWO MILES.  EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO EARLY
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT AS COLDER AND DRIER
AIR SPREADS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND THERE SHOULD BE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILINGS
AROUND 15 HUNDRED FEET.  A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SNOW OVER
CENTRAL SECTIONS AND SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS WILL VEER TO
THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BECOME NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ021-
029>031-037>042-049.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/50
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 031709
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1205 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING FEATURING THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN THURSDAY WITH DRY CHILLY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE MIX
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES THIS MORNING
ADDITIONAL HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE MAINLY BELOW 32 AT THE
MOMENT...WITH WET BULB TEMPERATURES EVEN COLDER.

EVEN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE ABOVE
32...SURFACE IS LIKELY STILL AT OR BELOW 32 ALLOWING FOR SOME
FREEZING. THUS CONTINUED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ALL AREAS. MAY BE
ABLE TO CLEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE NOON IF TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO RISE QUICKER THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY NEARING 30 DEGREES.

REALLY FEELS LIKE WE ARE GETTING THE KITCHEN SINK TOSSED AT US OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW ALL ON THE
DOCKET. FIRST FOCUS IS ON THE ICING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.

OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NOW REPORTING FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN
PRECIP...WHICH IS PROBABLY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THINK
SLEET IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AT ONSET AS THE DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ERODES. THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER ARE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP STARTING. SURFACE TEMPS THEN BECOME
THE MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LONG THE FREEZING RAIN LASTS. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED A BIT TOO COOL OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT IN GENERAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB FURTHER SOUTH. RAP/HRRR/WRF
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE 32F FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING BUT HINTING AT A DELAY
OVER EARLIER GUIDANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL APPEARS ENTIRE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.

OVERALL QPF VALUES FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE 0.10 TO 0.15
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND THE TIMING COULD NOT BE WORSE AS THE
MORNING RUSH WILL BE IMPACTED. IN AN EFFORT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF
THE IMPACTS...GOING TO SWITCH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND STRESS THE ICING POTENTIAL. IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. EVEN AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE
32F...THE FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY LEND TO AT LEAST SOME ICING TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMP CAN GET TO 33-34F LATER IN THE
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOLAR RADIATION WILL WORK AS AN OPPOSING
FORCE TO MINIMIZE ICING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AS EARLY MARCH
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY EFFICIENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 17Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN FALL AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTHWEST TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE
SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS
CONSIDERING THE FROZEN GROUND AND AMBIENT SNOWPACK WHICH WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY MELT. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING REMAIN CONCERNS
GOING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

TEMPS...UTILIZED RAP/HRRR BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
BIT WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...MIXING
WITH THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINOR...ON THE ORDER OF A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT BEST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH DRY COLD
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE OF IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A CLEAR TREND.
NAM/WRF/UKMET ALL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA. OP GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW SETUP. THE SREF/ECMWF/GGEM ARE ALL IN
BETWEEN.

A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS WARRANTED RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SAME TIME...RULING OUT THE MORE NORTHERN
NAM/WRF/UKMET GROUP COMPLETELY WOULD BE FOOLISH...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW THE UKMET HAS PERFORMED AS OF LATE. PRESENCE OF
DEFORMATION BANDING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE AND A
STRONG PHASED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH ARGUE IN A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION THAN THE OP GFS. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
JET TO OUR N/NW SHOULD ENHANCE FORCING AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGHER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1 WOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON POTENTIAL ACCUMS.

TAKING THIS ALL INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL THINKING IS A SHARP CUTOFF ALIGNING SOMEWHERE OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. TAKE AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY UP TO 5 TO
POSSIBLY 6 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM BEDFORD TO SEYMOUR.
WILL INTRODUCE A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS TIME IN SNOW AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 6 INCHES. SHOULD THE CONSENSUS TREND TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN MODEL CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. STAY TUNED AS
THIS SETUP REMAINS FLUID AND IS LIKELY TO CHANGE FURTHER IN THE
COMING 24-36 HOURS.

ANY SNOW WILL END BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TAKING
OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAVMOS WEDNESDAY...THEN TOOK A
BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. NEAR MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT THEN UNDERCUT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. STRONG LIKELIHOOD ANOTHER RECORD FALLS AT
INDY. LOW MAX OF 18 (1960) ON THURSDAY IN DANGER. MAYBE EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE..COULD SEE OUR FIRST MARCH SUBZERO MORNING IN 31 YEARS ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING AND EXPECT ONLY RAIN REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. WEATHER DEPICTION INDICATES
CEILINGS AVERAGING AROUND 5 HUNDRED FEET AND VISIBILITIES ONE AND
HALF TO TWO MILES.  EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO EARLY
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT AS COLDER AND DRIER
AIR SPREADS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND THERE SHOULD BE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILINGS
AROUND 15 HUNDRED FEET.  A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SNOW OVER
CENTRAL SECTIONS AND SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS WILL VEER TO
THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BECOME NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ021-
029>031-037>042-049.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/50
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 031709
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1205 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING FEATURING THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN THURSDAY WITH DRY CHILLY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE MIX
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES THIS MORNING
ADDITIONAL HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE MAINLY BELOW 32 AT THE
MOMENT...WITH WET BULB TEMPERATURES EVEN COLDER.

EVEN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE ABOVE
32...SURFACE IS LIKELY STILL AT OR BELOW 32 ALLOWING FOR SOME
FREEZING. THUS CONTINUED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ALL AREAS. MAY BE
ABLE TO CLEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE NOON IF TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO RISE QUICKER THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY NEARING 30 DEGREES.

REALLY FEELS LIKE WE ARE GETTING THE KITCHEN SINK TOSSED AT US OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW ALL ON THE
DOCKET. FIRST FOCUS IS ON THE ICING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.

OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NOW REPORTING FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN
PRECIP...WHICH IS PROBABLY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THINK
SLEET IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AT ONSET AS THE DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ERODES. THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER ARE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP STARTING. SURFACE TEMPS THEN BECOME
THE MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LONG THE FREEZING RAIN LASTS. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED A BIT TOO COOL OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT IN GENERAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB FURTHER SOUTH. RAP/HRRR/WRF
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE 32F FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING BUT HINTING AT A DELAY
OVER EARLIER GUIDANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL APPEARS ENTIRE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.

OVERALL QPF VALUES FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE 0.10 TO 0.15
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND THE TIMING COULD NOT BE WORSE AS THE
MORNING RUSH WILL BE IMPACTED. IN AN EFFORT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF
THE IMPACTS...GOING TO SWITCH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND STRESS THE ICING POTENTIAL. IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. EVEN AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE
32F...THE FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY LEND TO AT LEAST SOME ICING TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMP CAN GET TO 33-34F LATER IN THE
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOLAR RADIATION WILL WORK AS AN OPPOSING
FORCE TO MINIMIZE ICING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AS EARLY MARCH
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY EFFICIENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 17Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN FALL AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTHWEST TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE
SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS
CONSIDERING THE FROZEN GROUND AND AMBIENT SNOWPACK WHICH WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY MELT. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING REMAIN CONCERNS
GOING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

TEMPS...UTILIZED RAP/HRRR BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
BIT WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...MIXING
WITH THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINOR...ON THE ORDER OF A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT BEST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH DRY COLD
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE OF IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A CLEAR TREND.
NAM/WRF/UKMET ALL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA. OP GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW SETUP. THE SREF/ECMWF/GGEM ARE ALL IN
BETWEEN.

A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS WARRANTED RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SAME TIME...RULING OUT THE MORE NORTHERN
NAM/WRF/UKMET GROUP COMPLETELY WOULD BE FOOLISH...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW THE UKMET HAS PERFORMED AS OF LATE. PRESENCE OF
DEFORMATION BANDING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE AND A
STRONG PHASED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH ARGUE IN A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION THAN THE OP GFS. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
JET TO OUR N/NW SHOULD ENHANCE FORCING AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGHER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1 WOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON POTENTIAL ACCUMS.

TAKING THIS ALL INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL THINKING IS A SHARP CUTOFF ALIGNING SOMEWHERE OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. TAKE AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY UP TO 5 TO
POSSIBLY 6 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM BEDFORD TO SEYMOUR.
WILL INTRODUCE A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS TIME IN SNOW AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 6 INCHES. SHOULD THE CONSENSUS TREND TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN MODEL CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. STAY TUNED AS
THIS SETUP REMAINS FLUID AND IS LIKELY TO CHANGE FURTHER IN THE
COMING 24-36 HOURS.

ANY SNOW WILL END BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TAKING
OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAVMOS WEDNESDAY...THEN TOOK A
BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. NEAR MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT THEN UNDERCUT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. STRONG LIKELIHOOD ANOTHER RECORD FALLS AT
INDY. LOW MAX OF 18 (1960) ON THURSDAY IN DANGER. MAYBE EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE..COULD SEE OUR FIRST MARCH SUBZERO MORNING IN 31 YEARS ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING AND EXPECT ONLY RAIN REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. WEATHER DEPICTION INDICATES
CEILINGS AVERAGING AROUND 5 HUNDRED FEET AND VISIBILITIES ONE AND
HALF TO TWO MILES.  EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO EARLY
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT AS COLDER AND DRIER
AIR SPREADS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND THERE SHOULD BE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILINGS
AROUND 15 HUNDRED FEET.  A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SNOW OVER
CENTRAL SECTIONS AND SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS WILL VEER TO
THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BECOME NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ021-
029>031-037>042-049.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/50
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 031709
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1205 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING FEATURING THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN THURSDAY WITH DRY CHILLY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE MIX
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES THIS MORNING
ADDITIONAL HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE MAINLY BELOW 32 AT THE
MOMENT...WITH WET BULB TEMPERATURES EVEN COLDER.

EVEN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE ABOVE
32...SURFACE IS LIKELY STILL AT OR BELOW 32 ALLOWING FOR SOME
FREEZING. THUS CONTINUED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ALL AREAS. MAY BE
ABLE TO CLEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE NOON IF TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO RISE QUICKER THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY NEARING 30 DEGREES.

REALLY FEELS LIKE WE ARE GETTING THE KITCHEN SINK TOSSED AT US OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW ALL ON THE
DOCKET. FIRST FOCUS IS ON THE ICING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.

OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NOW REPORTING FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN
PRECIP...WHICH IS PROBABLY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THINK
SLEET IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AT ONSET AS THE DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ERODES. THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER ARE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP STARTING. SURFACE TEMPS THEN BECOME
THE MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LONG THE FREEZING RAIN LASTS. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED A BIT TOO COOL OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT IN GENERAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB FURTHER SOUTH. RAP/HRRR/WRF
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE 32F FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING BUT HINTING AT A DELAY
OVER EARLIER GUIDANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL APPEARS ENTIRE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.

OVERALL QPF VALUES FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE 0.10 TO 0.15
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND THE TIMING COULD NOT BE WORSE AS THE
MORNING RUSH WILL BE IMPACTED. IN AN EFFORT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF
THE IMPACTS...GOING TO SWITCH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND STRESS THE ICING POTENTIAL. IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. EVEN AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE
32F...THE FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY LEND TO AT LEAST SOME ICING TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMP CAN GET TO 33-34F LATER IN THE
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOLAR RADIATION WILL WORK AS AN OPPOSING
FORCE TO MINIMIZE ICING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AS EARLY MARCH
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY EFFICIENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 17Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN FALL AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTHWEST TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE
SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS
CONSIDERING THE FROZEN GROUND AND AMBIENT SNOWPACK WHICH WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY MELT. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING REMAIN CONCERNS
GOING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

TEMPS...UTILIZED RAP/HRRR BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
BIT WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...MIXING
WITH THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINOR...ON THE ORDER OF A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT BEST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH DRY COLD
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE OF IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A CLEAR TREND.
NAM/WRF/UKMET ALL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA. OP GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW SETUP. THE SREF/ECMWF/GGEM ARE ALL IN
BETWEEN.

A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS WARRANTED RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SAME TIME...RULING OUT THE MORE NORTHERN
NAM/WRF/UKMET GROUP COMPLETELY WOULD BE FOOLISH...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW THE UKMET HAS PERFORMED AS OF LATE. PRESENCE OF
DEFORMATION BANDING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE AND A
STRONG PHASED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH ARGUE IN A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION THAN THE OP GFS. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
JET TO OUR N/NW SHOULD ENHANCE FORCING AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGHER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1 WOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON POTENTIAL ACCUMS.

TAKING THIS ALL INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL THINKING IS A SHARP CUTOFF ALIGNING SOMEWHERE OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. TAKE AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY UP TO 5 TO
POSSIBLY 6 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM BEDFORD TO SEYMOUR.
WILL INTRODUCE A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS TIME IN SNOW AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 6 INCHES. SHOULD THE CONSENSUS TREND TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN MODEL CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. STAY TUNED AS
THIS SETUP REMAINS FLUID AND IS LIKELY TO CHANGE FURTHER IN THE
COMING 24-36 HOURS.

ANY SNOW WILL END BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TAKING
OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAVMOS WEDNESDAY...THEN TOOK A
BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. NEAR MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT THEN UNDERCUT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. STRONG LIKELIHOOD ANOTHER RECORD FALLS AT
INDY. LOW MAX OF 18 (1960) ON THURSDAY IN DANGER. MAYBE EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE..COULD SEE OUR FIRST MARCH SUBZERO MORNING IN 31 YEARS ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING AND EXPECT ONLY RAIN REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. WEATHER DEPICTION INDICATES
CEILINGS AVERAGING AROUND 5 HUNDRED FEET AND VISIBILITIES ONE AND
HALF TO TWO MILES.  EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO EARLY
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT AS COLDER AND DRIER
AIR SPREADS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND THERE SHOULD BE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILINGS
AROUND 15 HUNDRED FEET.  A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SNOW OVER
CENTRAL SECTIONS AND SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS WILL VEER TO
THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BECOME NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ021-
029>031-037>042-049.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/50
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 031709
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1205 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING FEATURING THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN THURSDAY WITH DRY CHILLY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE MIX
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES THIS MORNING
ADDITIONAL HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE MAINLY BELOW 32 AT THE
MOMENT...WITH WET BULB TEMPERATURES EVEN COLDER.

EVEN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE ABOVE
32...SURFACE IS LIKELY STILL AT OR BELOW 32 ALLOWING FOR SOME
FREEZING. THUS CONTINUED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ALL AREAS. MAY BE
ABLE TO CLEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE NOON IF TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO RISE QUICKER THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY NEARING 30 DEGREES.

REALLY FEELS LIKE WE ARE GETTING THE KITCHEN SINK TOSSED AT US OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW ALL ON THE
DOCKET. FIRST FOCUS IS ON THE ICING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.

OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NOW REPORTING FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN
PRECIP...WHICH IS PROBABLY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THINK
SLEET IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AT ONSET AS THE DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ERODES. THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER ARE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP STARTING. SURFACE TEMPS THEN BECOME
THE MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LONG THE FREEZING RAIN LASTS. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED A BIT TOO COOL OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT IN GENERAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB FURTHER SOUTH. RAP/HRRR/WRF
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE 32F FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING BUT HINTING AT A DELAY
OVER EARLIER GUIDANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL APPEARS ENTIRE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.

OVERALL QPF VALUES FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE 0.10 TO 0.15
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND THE TIMING COULD NOT BE WORSE AS THE
MORNING RUSH WILL BE IMPACTED. IN AN EFFORT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF
THE IMPACTS...GOING TO SWITCH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND STRESS THE ICING POTENTIAL. IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. EVEN AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE
32F...THE FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY LEND TO AT LEAST SOME ICING TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMP CAN GET TO 33-34F LATER IN THE
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOLAR RADIATION WILL WORK AS AN OPPOSING
FORCE TO MINIMIZE ICING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AS EARLY MARCH
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY EFFICIENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 17Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN FALL AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTHWEST TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE
SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS
CONSIDERING THE FROZEN GROUND AND AMBIENT SNOWPACK WHICH WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY MELT. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING REMAIN CONCERNS
GOING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

TEMPS...UTILIZED RAP/HRRR BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
BIT WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...MIXING
WITH THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINOR...ON THE ORDER OF A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT BEST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH DRY COLD
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE OF IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A CLEAR TREND.
NAM/WRF/UKMET ALL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA. OP GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW SETUP. THE SREF/ECMWF/GGEM ARE ALL IN
BETWEEN.

A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS WARRANTED RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SAME TIME...RULING OUT THE MORE NORTHERN
NAM/WRF/UKMET GROUP COMPLETELY WOULD BE FOOLISH...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW THE UKMET HAS PERFORMED AS OF LATE. PRESENCE OF
DEFORMATION BANDING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE AND A
STRONG PHASED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH ARGUE IN A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION THAN THE OP GFS. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
JET TO OUR N/NW SHOULD ENHANCE FORCING AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGHER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1 WOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON POTENTIAL ACCUMS.

TAKING THIS ALL INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL THINKING IS A SHARP CUTOFF ALIGNING SOMEWHERE OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. TAKE AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY UP TO 5 TO
POSSIBLY 6 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM BEDFORD TO SEYMOUR.
WILL INTRODUCE A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS TIME IN SNOW AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 6 INCHES. SHOULD THE CONSENSUS TREND TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN MODEL CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. STAY TUNED AS
THIS SETUP REMAINS FLUID AND IS LIKELY TO CHANGE FURTHER IN THE
COMING 24-36 HOURS.

ANY SNOW WILL END BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TAKING
OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAVMOS WEDNESDAY...THEN TOOK A
BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. NEAR MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT THEN UNDERCUT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. STRONG LIKELIHOOD ANOTHER RECORD FALLS AT
INDY. LOW MAX OF 18 (1960) ON THURSDAY IN DANGER. MAYBE EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE..COULD SEE OUR FIRST MARCH SUBZERO MORNING IN 31 YEARS ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING AND EXPECT ONLY RAIN REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. WEATHER DEPICTION INDICATES
CEILINGS AVERAGING AROUND 5 HUNDRED FEET AND VISIBILITIES ONE AND
HALF TO TWO MILES.  EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO EARLY
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT AS COLDER AND DRIER
AIR SPREADS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND THERE SHOULD BE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILINGS
AROUND 15 HUNDRED FEET.  A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SNOW OVER
CENTRAL SECTIONS AND SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS WILL VEER TO
THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BECOME NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ021-
029>031-037>042-049.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/50
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 031450
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
950 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING FEATURING THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN THURSDAY WITH DRY CHILLY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE MIX
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES THIS MORNING
ADDITIONAL HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE MAINLY BELOW 32 AT THE
MOMENT...WITH WET BULB TEMPERATURES EVEN COLDER.

EVEN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE ABOVE
32...SURFACE IS LIKELY STILL AT OR BELOW 32 ALLOWING FOR SOME
FREEZING. THUS CONTINUED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ALL AREAS. MAY BE
ABLE TO CLEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE NOON IF TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO RISE QUICKER THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY NEARING 30 DEGREES.

REALLY FEELS LIKE WE ARE GETTING THE KITCHEN SINK TOSSED AT US OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW ALL ON THE
DOCKET. FIRST FOCUS IS ON THE ICING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.

OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NOW REPORTING FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN
PRECIP...WHICH IS PROBABLY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THINK
SLEET IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AT ONSET AS THE DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ERODES. THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER ARE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP STARTING. SURFACE TEMPS THEN BECOME
THE MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LONG THE FREEZING RAIN LASTS. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED A BIT TOO COOL OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT IN GENERAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB FURTHER SOUTH. RAP/HRRR/WRF
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE 32F FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING BUT HINTING AT A DELAY
OVER EARLIER GUIDANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL APPEARS ENTIRE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.

OVERALL QPF VALUES FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE 0.10 TO 0.15
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND THE TIMING COULD NOT BE WORSE AS THE
MORNING RUSH WILL BE IMPACTED. IN AN EFFORT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF
THE IMPACTS...GOING TO SWITCH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND STRESS THE ICING POTENTIAL. IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. EVEN AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE
32F...THE FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY LEND TO AT LEAST SOME ICING TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMP CAN GET TO 33-34F LATER IN THE
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOLAR RADIATION WILL WORK AS AN OPPOSING
FORCE TO MINIMIZE ICING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AS EARLY MARCH
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY EFFICIENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 17Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN FALL AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTHWEST TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE
SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS
CONSIDERING THE FROZEN GROUND AND AMBIENT SNOWPACK WHICH WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY MELT. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING REMAIN CONCERNS
GOING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

TEMPS...UTILIZED RAP/HRRR BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
BIT WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...MIXING
WITH THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINOR...ON THE ORDER OF A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT BEST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH DRY COLD
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE OF IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A CLEAR TREND.
NAM/WRF/UKMET ALL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA. OP GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW SETUP. THE SREF/ECMWF/GGEM ARE ALL IN
BETWEEN.

A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS WARRANTED RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SAME TIME...RULING OUT THE MORE NORTHERN
NAM/WRF/UKMET GROUP COMPLETELY WOULD BE FOOLISH...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW THE UKMET HAS PERFORMED AS OF LATE. PRESENCE OF
DEFORMATION BANDING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE AND A
STRONG PHASED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH ARGUE IN A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION THAN THE OP GFS. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
JET TO OUR N/NW SHOULD ENHANCE FORCING AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGHER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1 WOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON POTENTIAL ACCUMS.

TAKING THIS ALL INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL THINKING IS A SHARP CUTOFF ALIGNING SOMEWHERE OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. TAKE AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY UP TO 5 TO
POSSIBLY 6 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM BEDFORD TO SEYMOUR.
WILL INTRODUCE A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS TIME IN SNOW AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 6 INCHES. SHOULD THE CONSENSUS TREND TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN MODEL CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. STAY TUNED AS
THIS SETUP REMAINS FLUID AND IS LIKELY TO CHANGE FURTHER IN THE
COMING 24-36 HOURS.

ANY SNOW WILL END BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TAKING
OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAVMOS WEDNESDAY...THEN TOOK A
BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. NEAR MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT THEN UNDERCUT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. STRONG LIKELIHOOD ANOTHER RECORD FALLS AT
INDY. LOW MAX OF 18 (1960) ON THURSDAY IN DANGER. MAYBE EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE..COULD SEE OUR FIRST MARCH SUBZERO MORNING IN 31 YEARS ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 930 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
INITIAL AREA OF FREEZING RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE TAF SITES. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH BETTER LIFT MOVING IN.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE OVER FROM FREEZING RAIN
TO RAIN GIVEN THE WARM SURGE AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE SLOWED BY
SNOWPACK. BEST ESTIMATES AT THIS TIME WOULD BE IN THE
031500Z-031800Z TIME FRAME FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AROUND
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS SUSTAINED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
CONTINUES OVER SNOWPACK. LIFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE DEWPOINTS BEGIN ADVECTING IN
OVER SNOWPACK...ENHANCING THREAT FOR FOG/LOW CEILINGS.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST A 60-65 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO
THE SNOWPACK...RESULTING IN A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT. WILL ADD
THIS TO THE FORECAST.

SURFACE WINDS 130-160 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER
AROUND TO 180-200 DEGREES AT 12-15 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCALIZED SURFACE GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL JET CAN BREAK THROUGH THE SURFACE INVERSION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/50
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 031450
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
950 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING FEATURING THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN THURSDAY WITH DRY CHILLY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE MIX
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES THIS MORNING
ADDITIONAL HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE MAINLY BELOW 32 AT THE
MOMENT...WITH WET BULB TEMPERATURES EVEN COLDER.

EVEN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE ABOVE
32...SURFACE IS LIKELY STILL AT OR BELOW 32 ALLOWING FOR SOME
FREEZING. THUS CONTINUED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ALL AREAS. MAY BE
ABLE TO CLEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE NOON IF TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO RISE QUICKER THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY NEARING 30 DEGREES.

REALLY FEELS LIKE WE ARE GETTING THE KITCHEN SINK TOSSED AT US OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW ALL ON THE
DOCKET. FIRST FOCUS IS ON THE ICING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.

OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NOW REPORTING FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN
PRECIP...WHICH IS PROBABLY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THINK
SLEET IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AT ONSET AS THE DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ERODES. THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER ARE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP STARTING. SURFACE TEMPS THEN BECOME
THE MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LONG THE FREEZING RAIN LASTS. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED A BIT TOO COOL OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT IN GENERAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB FURTHER SOUTH. RAP/HRRR/WRF
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE 32F FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING BUT HINTING AT A DELAY
OVER EARLIER GUIDANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL APPEARS ENTIRE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.

OVERALL QPF VALUES FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE 0.10 TO 0.15
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND THE TIMING COULD NOT BE WORSE AS THE
MORNING RUSH WILL BE IMPACTED. IN AN EFFORT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF
THE IMPACTS...GOING TO SWITCH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND STRESS THE ICING POTENTIAL. IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. EVEN AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE
32F...THE FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY LEND TO AT LEAST SOME ICING TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMP CAN GET TO 33-34F LATER IN THE
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOLAR RADIATION WILL WORK AS AN OPPOSING
FORCE TO MINIMIZE ICING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AS EARLY MARCH
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY EFFICIENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 17Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN FALL AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTHWEST TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE
SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS
CONSIDERING THE FROZEN GROUND AND AMBIENT SNOWPACK WHICH WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY MELT. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING REMAIN CONCERNS
GOING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

TEMPS...UTILIZED RAP/HRRR BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
BIT WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...MIXING
WITH THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINOR...ON THE ORDER OF A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT BEST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH DRY COLD
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE OF IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A CLEAR TREND.
NAM/WRF/UKMET ALL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA. OP GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW SETUP. THE SREF/ECMWF/GGEM ARE ALL IN
BETWEEN.

A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS WARRANTED RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SAME TIME...RULING OUT THE MORE NORTHERN
NAM/WRF/UKMET GROUP COMPLETELY WOULD BE FOOLISH...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW THE UKMET HAS PERFORMED AS OF LATE. PRESENCE OF
DEFORMATION BANDING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE AND A
STRONG PHASED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH ARGUE IN A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION THAN THE OP GFS. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
JET TO OUR N/NW SHOULD ENHANCE FORCING AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGHER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1 WOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON POTENTIAL ACCUMS.

TAKING THIS ALL INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL THINKING IS A SHARP CUTOFF ALIGNING SOMEWHERE OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. TAKE AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY UP TO 5 TO
POSSIBLY 6 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM BEDFORD TO SEYMOUR.
WILL INTRODUCE A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS TIME IN SNOW AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 6 INCHES. SHOULD THE CONSENSUS TREND TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN MODEL CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. STAY TUNED AS
THIS SETUP REMAINS FLUID AND IS LIKELY TO CHANGE FURTHER IN THE
COMING 24-36 HOURS.

ANY SNOW WILL END BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TAKING
OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAVMOS WEDNESDAY...THEN TOOK A
BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. NEAR MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT THEN UNDERCUT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. STRONG LIKELIHOOD ANOTHER RECORD FALLS AT
INDY. LOW MAX OF 18 (1960) ON THURSDAY IN DANGER. MAYBE EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE..COULD SEE OUR FIRST MARCH SUBZERO MORNING IN 31 YEARS ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 930 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
INITIAL AREA OF FREEZING RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE TAF SITES. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH BETTER LIFT MOVING IN.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE OVER FROM FREEZING RAIN
TO RAIN GIVEN THE WARM SURGE AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE SLOWED BY
SNOWPACK. BEST ESTIMATES AT THIS TIME WOULD BE IN THE
031500Z-031800Z TIME FRAME FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AROUND
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS SUSTAINED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
CONTINUES OVER SNOWPACK. LIFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE DEWPOINTS BEGIN ADVECTING IN
OVER SNOWPACK...ENHANCING THREAT FOR FOG/LOW CEILINGS.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST A 60-65 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO
THE SNOWPACK...RESULTING IN A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT. WILL ADD
THIS TO THE FORECAST.

SURFACE WINDS 130-160 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER
AROUND TO 180-200 DEGREES AT 12-15 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCALIZED SURFACE GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL JET CAN BREAK THROUGH THE SURFACE INVERSION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/50
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 031450
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
950 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING FEATURING THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN THURSDAY WITH DRY CHILLY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE MIX
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES THIS MORNING
ADDITIONAL HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE MAINLY BELOW 32 AT THE
MOMENT...WITH WET BULB TEMPERATURES EVEN COLDER.

EVEN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE ABOVE
32...SURFACE IS LIKELY STILL AT OR BELOW 32 ALLOWING FOR SOME
FREEZING. THUS CONTINUED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ALL AREAS. MAY BE
ABLE TO CLEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE NOON IF TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO RISE QUICKER THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY NEARING 30 DEGREES.

REALLY FEELS LIKE WE ARE GETTING THE KITCHEN SINK TOSSED AT US OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW ALL ON THE
DOCKET. FIRST FOCUS IS ON THE ICING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.

OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NOW REPORTING FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN
PRECIP...WHICH IS PROBABLY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THINK
SLEET IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AT ONSET AS THE DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ERODES. THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER ARE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP STARTING. SURFACE TEMPS THEN BECOME
THE MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LONG THE FREEZING RAIN LASTS. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED A BIT TOO COOL OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT IN GENERAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB FURTHER SOUTH. RAP/HRRR/WRF
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE 32F FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING BUT HINTING AT A DELAY
OVER EARLIER GUIDANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL APPEARS ENTIRE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.

OVERALL QPF VALUES FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE 0.10 TO 0.15
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND THE TIMING COULD NOT BE WORSE AS THE
MORNING RUSH WILL BE IMPACTED. IN AN EFFORT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF
THE IMPACTS...GOING TO SWITCH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND STRESS THE ICING POTENTIAL. IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. EVEN AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE
32F...THE FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY LEND TO AT LEAST SOME ICING TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMP CAN GET TO 33-34F LATER IN THE
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOLAR RADIATION WILL WORK AS AN OPPOSING
FORCE TO MINIMIZE ICING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AS EARLY MARCH
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY EFFICIENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 17Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN FALL AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTHWEST TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE
SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS
CONSIDERING THE FROZEN GROUND AND AMBIENT SNOWPACK WHICH WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY MELT. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING REMAIN CONCERNS
GOING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

TEMPS...UTILIZED RAP/HRRR BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
BIT WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...MIXING
WITH THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINOR...ON THE ORDER OF A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT BEST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH DRY COLD
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE OF IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A CLEAR TREND.
NAM/WRF/UKMET ALL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA. OP GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW SETUP. THE SREF/ECMWF/GGEM ARE ALL IN
BETWEEN.

A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS WARRANTED RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SAME TIME...RULING OUT THE MORE NORTHERN
NAM/WRF/UKMET GROUP COMPLETELY WOULD BE FOOLISH...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW THE UKMET HAS PERFORMED AS OF LATE. PRESENCE OF
DEFORMATION BANDING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE AND A
STRONG PHASED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH ARGUE IN A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION THAN THE OP GFS. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
JET TO OUR N/NW SHOULD ENHANCE FORCING AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGHER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1 WOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON POTENTIAL ACCUMS.

TAKING THIS ALL INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL THINKING IS A SHARP CUTOFF ALIGNING SOMEWHERE OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. TAKE AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY UP TO 5 TO
POSSIBLY 6 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM BEDFORD TO SEYMOUR.
WILL INTRODUCE A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS TIME IN SNOW AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 6 INCHES. SHOULD THE CONSENSUS TREND TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN MODEL CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. STAY TUNED AS
THIS SETUP REMAINS FLUID AND IS LIKELY TO CHANGE FURTHER IN THE
COMING 24-36 HOURS.

ANY SNOW WILL END BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TAKING
OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAVMOS WEDNESDAY...THEN TOOK A
BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. NEAR MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT THEN UNDERCUT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. STRONG LIKELIHOOD ANOTHER RECORD FALLS AT
INDY. LOW MAX OF 18 (1960) ON THURSDAY IN DANGER. MAYBE EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE..COULD SEE OUR FIRST MARCH SUBZERO MORNING IN 31 YEARS ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 930 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
INITIAL AREA OF FREEZING RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE TAF SITES. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH BETTER LIFT MOVING IN.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE OVER FROM FREEZING RAIN
TO RAIN GIVEN THE WARM SURGE AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE SLOWED BY
SNOWPACK. BEST ESTIMATES AT THIS TIME WOULD BE IN THE
031500Z-031800Z TIME FRAME FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AROUND
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS SUSTAINED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
CONTINUES OVER SNOWPACK. LIFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE DEWPOINTS BEGIN ADVECTING IN
OVER SNOWPACK...ENHANCING THREAT FOR FOG/LOW CEILINGS.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST A 60-65 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO
THE SNOWPACK...RESULTING IN A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT. WILL ADD
THIS TO THE FORECAST.

SURFACE WINDS 130-160 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER
AROUND TO 180-200 DEGREES AT 12-15 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCALIZED SURFACE GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL JET CAN BREAK THROUGH THE SURFACE INVERSION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/50
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 031450
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
950 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING FEATURING THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN THURSDAY WITH DRY CHILLY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE MIX
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES THIS MORNING
ADDITIONAL HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE MAINLY BELOW 32 AT THE
MOMENT...WITH WET BULB TEMPERATURES EVEN COLDER.

EVEN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE ABOVE
32...SURFACE IS LIKELY STILL AT OR BELOW 32 ALLOWING FOR SOME
FREEZING. THUS CONTINUED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ALL AREAS. MAY BE
ABLE TO CLEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE NOON IF TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO RISE QUICKER THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY NEARING 30 DEGREES.

REALLY FEELS LIKE WE ARE GETTING THE KITCHEN SINK TOSSED AT US OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW ALL ON THE
DOCKET. FIRST FOCUS IS ON THE ICING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.

OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NOW REPORTING FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN
PRECIP...WHICH IS PROBABLY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THINK
SLEET IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AT ONSET AS THE DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ERODES. THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER ARE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP STARTING. SURFACE TEMPS THEN BECOME
THE MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LONG THE FREEZING RAIN LASTS. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED A BIT TOO COOL OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT IN GENERAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB FURTHER SOUTH. RAP/HRRR/WRF
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE 32F FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING BUT HINTING AT A DELAY
OVER EARLIER GUIDANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL APPEARS ENTIRE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.

OVERALL QPF VALUES FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE 0.10 TO 0.15
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND THE TIMING COULD NOT BE WORSE AS THE
MORNING RUSH WILL BE IMPACTED. IN AN EFFORT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF
THE IMPACTS...GOING TO SWITCH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND STRESS THE ICING POTENTIAL. IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. EVEN AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE
32F...THE FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY LEND TO AT LEAST SOME ICING TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMP CAN GET TO 33-34F LATER IN THE
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOLAR RADIATION WILL WORK AS AN OPPOSING
FORCE TO MINIMIZE ICING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AS EARLY MARCH
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY EFFICIENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 17Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN FALL AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTHWEST TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE
SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS
CONSIDERING THE FROZEN GROUND AND AMBIENT SNOWPACK WHICH WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY MELT. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING REMAIN CONCERNS
GOING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

TEMPS...UTILIZED RAP/HRRR BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
BIT WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...MIXING
WITH THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINOR...ON THE ORDER OF A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT BEST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH DRY COLD
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE OF IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A CLEAR TREND.
NAM/WRF/UKMET ALL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA. OP GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW SETUP. THE SREF/ECMWF/GGEM ARE ALL IN
BETWEEN.

A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS WARRANTED RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SAME TIME...RULING OUT THE MORE NORTHERN
NAM/WRF/UKMET GROUP COMPLETELY WOULD BE FOOLISH...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW THE UKMET HAS PERFORMED AS OF LATE. PRESENCE OF
DEFORMATION BANDING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE AND A
STRONG PHASED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH ARGUE IN A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION THAN THE OP GFS. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
JET TO OUR N/NW SHOULD ENHANCE FORCING AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGHER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1 WOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON POTENTIAL ACCUMS.

TAKING THIS ALL INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL THINKING IS A SHARP CUTOFF ALIGNING SOMEWHERE OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. TAKE AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY UP TO 5 TO
POSSIBLY 6 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM BEDFORD TO SEYMOUR.
WILL INTRODUCE A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS TIME IN SNOW AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 6 INCHES. SHOULD THE CONSENSUS TREND TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN MODEL CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. STAY TUNED AS
THIS SETUP REMAINS FLUID AND IS LIKELY TO CHANGE FURTHER IN THE
COMING 24-36 HOURS.

ANY SNOW WILL END BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TAKING
OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAVMOS WEDNESDAY...THEN TOOK A
BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. NEAR MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT THEN UNDERCUT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. STRONG LIKELIHOOD ANOTHER RECORD FALLS AT
INDY. LOW MAX OF 18 (1960) ON THURSDAY IN DANGER. MAYBE EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE..COULD SEE OUR FIRST MARCH SUBZERO MORNING IN 31 YEARS ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 930 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
INITIAL AREA OF FREEZING RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE TAF SITES. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH BETTER LIFT MOVING IN.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE OVER FROM FREEZING RAIN
TO RAIN GIVEN THE WARM SURGE AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE SLOWED BY
SNOWPACK. BEST ESTIMATES AT THIS TIME WOULD BE IN THE
031500Z-031800Z TIME FRAME FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AROUND
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS SUSTAINED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
CONTINUES OVER SNOWPACK. LIFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE DEWPOINTS BEGIN ADVECTING IN
OVER SNOWPACK...ENHANCING THREAT FOR FOG/LOW CEILINGS.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST A 60-65 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO
THE SNOWPACK...RESULTING IN A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT. WILL ADD
THIS TO THE FORECAST.

SURFACE WINDS 130-160 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER
AROUND TO 180-200 DEGREES AT 12-15 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCALIZED SURFACE GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL JET CAN BREAK THROUGH THE SURFACE INVERSION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/50
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 031430
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
625 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING FEATURING THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN THURSDAY WITH DRY CHILLY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY NEARING 30 DEGREES.

REALLY FEELS LIKE WE ARE GETTING THE KITCHEN SINK TOSSED AT US OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW ALL ON THE
DOCKET. FIRST FOCUS IS ON THE ICING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.

OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NOW REPORTING FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN
PRECIP...WHICH IS PROBABLY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THINK
SLEET IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AT ONSET AS THE DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ERODES. THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER ARE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP STARTING. SURFACE TEMPS THEN BECOME
THE MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LONG THE FREEZING RAIN LASTS. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED A BIT TOO COOL OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT IN GENERAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB FURTHER SOUTH. RAP/HRRR/WRF
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE 32F FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING BUT HINTING AT A DELAY
OVER EARLIER GUIDANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL APPEARS ENTIRE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.

OVERALL QPF VALUES FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE 0.10 TO 0.15
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND THE TIMING COULD NOT BE WORSE AS THE
MORNING RUSH WILL BE IMPACTED. IN AN EFFORT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF
THE IMPACTS...GOING TO SWITCH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND STRESS THE ICING POTENTIAL. IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. EVEN AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE
32F...THE FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY LEND TO AT LEAST SOME ICING TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMP CAN GET TO 33-34F LATER IN THE
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOLAR RADIATION WILL WORK AS AN OPPOSING
FORCE TO MINIMIZE ICING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AS EARLY MARCH
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY EFFICIENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 17Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN FALL AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTHWEST TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE
SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS
CONSIDERING THE FROZEN GROUND AND AMBIENT SNOWPACK WHICH WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY MELT. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING REMAIN CONCERNS
GOING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

TEMPS...UTILIZED RAP/HRRR BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
BIT WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...MIXING
WITH THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINOR...ON THE ORDER OF A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT BEST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH DRY COLD
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE OF IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A CLEAR TREND.
NAM/WRF/UKMET ALL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA. OP GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW SETUP. THE SREF/ECMWF/GGEM ARE ALL IN
BETWEEN.

A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS WARRANTED RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SAME TIME...RULING OUT THE MORE NORTHERN
NAM/WRF/UKMET GROUP COMPLETELY WOULD BE FOOLISH...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW THE UKMET HAS PERFORMED AS OF LATE. PRESENCE OF
DEFORMATION BANDING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE AND A
STRONG PHASED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH ARGUE IN A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION THAN THE OP GFS. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
JET TO OUR N/NW SHOULD ENHANCE FORCING AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGHER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1 WOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON POTENTIAL ACCUMS.

TAKING THIS ALL INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL THINKING IS A SHARP CUTOFF ALIGNING SOMEWHERE OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. TAKE AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY UP TO 5 TO
POSSIBLY 6 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM BEDFORD TO SEYMOUR.
WILL INTRODUCE A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS TIME IN SNOW AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 6 INCHES. SHOULD THE CONSENSUS TREND TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN MODEL CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. STAY TUNED AS
THIS SETUP REMAINS FLUID AND IS LIKELY TO CHANGE FURTHER IN THE
COMING 24-36 HOURS.

ANY SNOW WILL END BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TAKING
OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAVMOS WEDNESDAY...THEN TOOK A
BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. NEAR MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT THEN UNDERCUT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. STRONG LIKELIHOOD ANOTHER RECORD FALLS AT
INDY. LOW MAX OF 18 (1960) ON THURSDAY IN DANGER. MAYBE EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE..COULD SEE OUR FIRST MARCH SUBZERO MORNING IN 31 YEARS ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 930 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
INITIAL AREA OF FREEZING RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE TAF SITES. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH BETTER LIFT MOVING IN.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE OVER FROM FREEZING RAIN
TO RAIN GIVEN THE WARM SURGE AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE SLOWED BY
SNOWPACK. BEST ESTIMATES AT THIS TIME WOULD BE IN THE
031500Z-031800Z TIME FRAME FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AROUND
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS SUSTAINED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
CONTINUES OVER SNOWPACK. LIFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE DEWPOINTS BEGIN ADVECTING IN
OVER SNOWPACK...ENHANCING THREAT FOR FOG/LOW CEILINGS.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST A 60-65 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO
THE SNOWPACK...RESULTING IN A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT. WILL ADD
THIS TO THE FORECAST.

SURFACE WINDS 130-160 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER
AROUND TO 180-200 DEGREES AT 12-15 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCALIZED SURFACE GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL JET CAN BREAK THROUGH THE SURFACE INVERSION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS




















000
FXUS63 KIND 031430
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
625 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING FEATURING THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN THURSDAY WITH DRY CHILLY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY NEARING 30 DEGREES.

REALLY FEELS LIKE WE ARE GETTING THE KITCHEN SINK TOSSED AT US OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW ALL ON THE
DOCKET. FIRST FOCUS IS ON THE ICING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.

OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NOW REPORTING FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN
PRECIP...WHICH IS PROBABLY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THINK
SLEET IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AT ONSET AS THE DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ERODES. THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER ARE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP STARTING. SURFACE TEMPS THEN BECOME
THE MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LONG THE FREEZING RAIN LASTS. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED A BIT TOO COOL OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT IN GENERAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB FURTHER SOUTH. RAP/HRRR/WRF
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE 32F FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING BUT HINTING AT A DELAY
OVER EARLIER GUIDANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL APPEARS ENTIRE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.

OVERALL QPF VALUES FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE 0.10 TO 0.15
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND THE TIMING COULD NOT BE WORSE AS THE
MORNING RUSH WILL BE IMPACTED. IN AN EFFORT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF
THE IMPACTS...GOING TO SWITCH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND STRESS THE ICING POTENTIAL. IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. EVEN AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE
32F...THE FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY LEND TO AT LEAST SOME ICING TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMP CAN GET TO 33-34F LATER IN THE
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOLAR RADIATION WILL WORK AS AN OPPOSING
FORCE TO MINIMIZE ICING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AS EARLY MARCH
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY EFFICIENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 17Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN FALL AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTHWEST TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE
SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS
CONSIDERING THE FROZEN GROUND AND AMBIENT SNOWPACK WHICH WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY MELT. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING REMAIN CONCERNS
GOING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

TEMPS...UTILIZED RAP/HRRR BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
BIT WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...MIXING
WITH THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINOR...ON THE ORDER OF A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT BEST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH DRY COLD
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE OF IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A CLEAR TREND.
NAM/WRF/UKMET ALL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA. OP GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW SETUP. THE SREF/ECMWF/GGEM ARE ALL IN
BETWEEN.

A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS WARRANTED RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SAME TIME...RULING OUT THE MORE NORTHERN
NAM/WRF/UKMET GROUP COMPLETELY WOULD BE FOOLISH...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW THE UKMET HAS PERFORMED AS OF LATE. PRESENCE OF
DEFORMATION BANDING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE AND A
STRONG PHASED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH ARGUE IN A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION THAN THE OP GFS. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
JET TO OUR N/NW SHOULD ENHANCE FORCING AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGHER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1 WOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON POTENTIAL ACCUMS.

TAKING THIS ALL INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL THINKING IS A SHARP CUTOFF ALIGNING SOMEWHERE OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. TAKE AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY UP TO 5 TO
POSSIBLY 6 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM BEDFORD TO SEYMOUR.
WILL INTRODUCE A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS TIME IN SNOW AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 6 INCHES. SHOULD THE CONSENSUS TREND TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN MODEL CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. STAY TUNED AS
THIS SETUP REMAINS FLUID AND IS LIKELY TO CHANGE FURTHER IN THE
COMING 24-36 HOURS.

ANY SNOW WILL END BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TAKING
OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAVMOS WEDNESDAY...THEN TOOK A
BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. NEAR MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT THEN UNDERCUT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. STRONG LIKELIHOOD ANOTHER RECORD FALLS AT
INDY. LOW MAX OF 18 (1960) ON THURSDAY IN DANGER. MAYBE EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE..COULD SEE OUR FIRST MARCH SUBZERO MORNING IN 31 YEARS ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 930 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
INITIAL AREA OF FREEZING RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE TAF SITES. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH BETTER LIFT MOVING IN.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE OVER FROM FREEZING RAIN
TO RAIN GIVEN THE WARM SURGE AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE SLOWED BY
SNOWPACK. BEST ESTIMATES AT THIS TIME WOULD BE IN THE
031500Z-031800Z TIME FRAME FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AROUND
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS SUSTAINED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
CONTINUES OVER SNOWPACK. LIFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE DEWPOINTS BEGIN ADVECTING IN
OVER SNOWPACK...ENHANCING THREAT FOR FOG/LOW CEILINGS.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST A 60-65 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO
THE SNOWPACK...RESULTING IN A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT. WILL ADD
THIS TO THE FORECAST.

SURFACE WINDS 130-160 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER
AROUND TO 180-200 DEGREES AT 12-15 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCALIZED SURFACE GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL JET CAN BREAK THROUGH THE SURFACE INVERSION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





















000
FXUS63 KIND 031127
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
625 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING FEATURING THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN THURSDAY WITH DRY CHILLY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY NEARING 30 DEGREES.

REALLY FEELS LIKE WE ARE GETTING THE KITCHEN SINK TOSSED AT US OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW ALL ON THE
DOCKET. FIRST FOCUS IS ON THE ICING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.

OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NOW REPORTING FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN
PRECIP...WHICH IS PROBABLY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THINK
SLEET IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AT ONSET AS THE DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ERODES. THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER ARE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP STARTING. SURFACE TEMPS THEN BECOME
THE MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LONG THE FREEZING RAIN LASTS. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED A BIT TOO COOL OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT IN GENERAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB FURTHER SOUTH. RAP/HRRR/WRF
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE 32F FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING BUT HINTING AT A DELAY
OVER EARLIER GUIDANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL APPEARS ENTIRE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.

OVERALL QPF VALUES FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE 0.10 TO 0.15
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND THE TIMING COULD NOT BE WORSE AS THE
MORNING RUSH WILL BE IMPACTED. IN AN EFFORT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF
THE IMPACTS...GOING TO SWITCH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND STRESS THE ICING POTENTIAL. IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. EVEN AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE
32F...THE FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY LEND TO AT LEAST SOME ICING TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMP CAN GET TO 33-34F LATER IN THE
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOLAR RADIATION WILL WORK AS AN OPPOSING
FORCE TO MINIMIZE ICING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AS EARLY MARCH
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY EFFICIENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 17Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN FALL AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTHWEST TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE
SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS
CONSIDERING THE FROZEN GROUND AND AMBIENT SNOWPACK WHICH WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY MELT. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING REMAIN CONCERNS
GOING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

TEMPS...UTILIZED RAP/HRRR BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
BIT WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...MIXING
WITH THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINOR...ON THE ORDER OF A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT BEST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH DRY COLD
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE OF IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A CLEAR TREND.
NAM/WRF/UKMET ALL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA. OP GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW SETUP. THE SREF/ECMWF/GGEM ARE ALL IN
BETWEEN.

A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS WARRANTED RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SAME TIME...RULING OUT THE MORE NORTHERN
NAM/WRF/UKMET GROUP COMPLETELY WOULD BE FOOLISH...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW THE UKMET HAS PERFORMED AS OF LATE. PRESENCE OF
DEFORMATION BANDING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE AND A
STRONG PHASED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH ARGUE IN A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION THAN THE OP GFS. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
JET TO OUR N/NW SHOULD ENHANCE FORCING AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGHER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1 WOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON POTENTIAL ACCUMS.

TAKING THIS ALL INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL THINKING IS A SHARP CUTOFF ALIGNING SOMEWHERE OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. TAKE AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY UP TO 5 TO POSSIBLY 6
INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM BEDFORD TO SEYMOUR. WILL
INTRODUCE A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS TIME IN SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING
6 INCHES. SHOULD THE CONSENSUS TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MODEL
CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. STAY TUNED AS THIS SETUP
REMAINS FLUID AND IS LIKELY TO CHANGE FURTHER IN THE COMING 24-36
HOURS.

ANY SNOW WILL END BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TAKING
OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAVMOS WEDNESDAY...THEN TOOK A
BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. NEAR MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT THEN UNDERCUT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. STRONG LIKELIHOOD ANOTHER RECORD FALLS AT
INDY. LOW MAX OF 18 (1960) ON THURSDAY IN DANGER. MAYBE EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE..COULD SEE OUR FIRST MARCH SUBZERO MORNING IN 31 YEARS ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

INITIAL AREA OF FREEZING RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE TAF SITES. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH BETTER LIFT MOVING IN.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE OVER FROM FREEZING RAIN
TO RAIN GIVEN THE WARM SURGE AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE SLOWED BY
SNOWPACK. BEST ESTIMATES AT THIS TIME WOULD BE IN THE
031500Z-031800Z TIME FRAME FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AROUND
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS SUSTAINED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
CONTINUES OVER SNOWPACK. LIFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE DEWPOINTS BEGIN ADVECTING IN
OVER SNOWPACK...ENHANCING THREAT FOR FOG/LOW CEILINGS.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST A 60-65 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO
THE SNOWPACK...RESULTING IN A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT. WILL ADD
THIS TO THE FORECAST.

SURFACE WINDS 130-160 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER
AROUND TO 180-200 DEGREES AT 12-15 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCALIZED SURFACE GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL JET CAN BREAK THROUGH THE SURFACE INVERSION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS


















000
FXUS63 KIND 031127
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
625 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING FEATURING THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN THURSDAY WITH DRY CHILLY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY NEARING 30 DEGREES.

REALLY FEELS LIKE WE ARE GETTING THE KITCHEN SINK TOSSED AT US OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW ALL ON THE
DOCKET. FIRST FOCUS IS ON THE ICING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.

OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NOW REPORTING FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN
PRECIP...WHICH IS PROBABLY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THINK
SLEET IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AT ONSET AS THE DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ERODES. THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER ARE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP STARTING. SURFACE TEMPS THEN BECOME
THE MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LONG THE FREEZING RAIN LASTS. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED A BIT TOO COOL OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT IN GENERAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB FURTHER SOUTH. RAP/HRRR/WRF
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE 32F FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING BUT HINTING AT A DELAY
OVER EARLIER GUIDANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL APPEARS ENTIRE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.

OVERALL QPF VALUES FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE 0.10 TO 0.15
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND THE TIMING COULD NOT BE WORSE AS THE
MORNING RUSH WILL BE IMPACTED. IN AN EFFORT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF
THE IMPACTS...GOING TO SWITCH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND STRESS THE ICING POTENTIAL. IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. EVEN AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE
32F...THE FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY LEND TO AT LEAST SOME ICING TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMP CAN GET TO 33-34F LATER IN THE
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOLAR RADIATION WILL WORK AS AN OPPOSING
FORCE TO MINIMIZE ICING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AS EARLY MARCH
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY EFFICIENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 17Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN FALL AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTHWEST TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE
SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS
CONSIDERING THE FROZEN GROUND AND AMBIENT SNOWPACK WHICH WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY MELT. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING REMAIN CONCERNS
GOING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

TEMPS...UTILIZED RAP/HRRR BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
BIT WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...MIXING
WITH THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINOR...ON THE ORDER OF A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT BEST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH DRY COLD
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE OF IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A CLEAR TREND.
NAM/WRF/UKMET ALL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA. OP GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW SETUP. THE SREF/ECMWF/GGEM ARE ALL IN
BETWEEN.

A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS WARRANTED RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SAME TIME...RULING OUT THE MORE NORTHERN
NAM/WRF/UKMET GROUP COMPLETELY WOULD BE FOOLISH...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW THE UKMET HAS PERFORMED AS OF LATE. PRESENCE OF
DEFORMATION BANDING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE AND A
STRONG PHASED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH ARGUE IN A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION THAN THE OP GFS. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
JET TO OUR N/NW SHOULD ENHANCE FORCING AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGHER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1 WOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON POTENTIAL ACCUMS.

TAKING THIS ALL INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL THINKING IS A SHARP CUTOFF ALIGNING SOMEWHERE OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. TAKE AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY UP TO 5 TO POSSIBLY 6
INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM BEDFORD TO SEYMOUR. WILL
INTRODUCE A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS TIME IN SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING
6 INCHES. SHOULD THE CONSENSUS TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MODEL
CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. STAY TUNED AS THIS SETUP
REMAINS FLUID AND IS LIKELY TO CHANGE FURTHER IN THE COMING 24-36
HOURS.

ANY SNOW WILL END BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TAKING
OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAVMOS WEDNESDAY...THEN TOOK A
BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. NEAR MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT THEN UNDERCUT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. STRONG LIKELIHOOD ANOTHER RECORD FALLS AT
INDY. LOW MAX OF 18 (1960) ON THURSDAY IN DANGER. MAYBE EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE..COULD SEE OUR FIRST MARCH SUBZERO MORNING IN 31 YEARS ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

INITIAL AREA OF FREEZING RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE TAF SITES. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH BETTER LIFT MOVING IN.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE OVER FROM FREEZING RAIN
TO RAIN GIVEN THE WARM SURGE AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE SLOWED BY
SNOWPACK. BEST ESTIMATES AT THIS TIME WOULD BE IN THE
031500Z-031800Z TIME FRAME FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AROUND
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS SUSTAINED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
CONTINUES OVER SNOWPACK. LIFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE DEWPOINTS BEGIN ADVECTING IN
OVER SNOWPACK...ENHANCING THREAT FOR FOG/LOW CEILINGS.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST A 60-65 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO
THE SNOWPACK...RESULTING IN A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT. WILL ADD
THIS TO THE FORECAST.

SURFACE WINDS 130-160 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER
AROUND TO 180-200 DEGREES AT 12-15 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCALIZED SURFACE GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL JET CAN BREAK THROUGH THE SURFACE INVERSION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

















000
FXUS63 KIND 031127
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
625 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING FEATURING THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN THURSDAY WITH DRY CHILLY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY NEARING 30 DEGREES.

REALLY FEELS LIKE WE ARE GETTING THE KITCHEN SINK TOSSED AT US OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW ALL ON THE
DOCKET. FIRST FOCUS IS ON THE ICING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.

OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NOW REPORTING FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN
PRECIP...WHICH IS PROBABLY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THINK
SLEET IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AT ONSET AS THE DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ERODES. THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER ARE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP STARTING. SURFACE TEMPS THEN BECOME
THE MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LONG THE FREEZING RAIN LASTS. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED A BIT TOO COOL OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT IN GENERAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB FURTHER SOUTH. RAP/HRRR/WRF
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE 32F FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING BUT HINTING AT A DELAY
OVER EARLIER GUIDANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL APPEARS ENTIRE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.

OVERALL QPF VALUES FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE 0.10 TO 0.15
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND THE TIMING COULD NOT BE WORSE AS THE
MORNING RUSH WILL BE IMPACTED. IN AN EFFORT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF
THE IMPACTS...GOING TO SWITCH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND STRESS THE ICING POTENTIAL. IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. EVEN AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE
32F...THE FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY LEND TO AT LEAST SOME ICING TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMP CAN GET TO 33-34F LATER IN THE
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOLAR RADIATION WILL WORK AS AN OPPOSING
FORCE TO MINIMIZE ICING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AS EARLY MARCH
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY EFFICIENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 17Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN FALL AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTHWEST TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE
SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS
CONSIDERING THE FROZEN GROUND AND AMBIENT SNOWPACK WHICH WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY MELT. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING REMAIN CONCERNS
GOING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

TEMPS...UTILIZED RAP/HRRR BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
BIT WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...MIXING
WITH THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINOR...ON THE ORDER OF A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT BEST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH DRY COLD
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE OF IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A CLEAR TREND.
NAM/WRF/UKMET ALL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA. OP GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW SETUP. THE SREF/ECMWF/GGEM ARE ALL IN
BETWEEN.

A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS WARRANTED RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SAME TIME...RULING OUT THE MORE NORTHERN
NAM/WRF/UKMET GROUP COMPLETELY WOULD BE FOOLISH...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW THE UKMET HAS PERFORMED AS OF LATE. PRESENCE OF
DEFORMATION BANDING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE AND A
STRONG PHASED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH ARGUE IN A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION THAN THE OP GFS. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
JET TO OUR N/NW SHOULD ENHANCE FORCING AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGHER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1 WOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON POTENTIAL ACCUMS.

TAKING THIS ALL INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL THINKING IS A SHARP CUTOFF ALIGNING SOMEWHERE OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. TAKE AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY UP TO 5 TO POSSIBLY 6
INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM BEDFORD TO SEYMOUR. WILL
INTRODUCE A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS TIME IN SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING
6 INCHES. SHOULD THE CONSENSUS TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MODEL
CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. STAY TUNED AS THIS SETUP
REMAINS FLUID AND IS LIKELY TO CHANGE FURTHER IN THE COMING 24-36
HOURS.

ANY SNOW WILL END BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TAKING
OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAVMOS WEDNESDAY...THEN TOOK A
BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. NEAR MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT THEN UNDERCUT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. STRONG LIKELIHOOD ANOTHER RECORD FALLS AT
INDY. LOW MAX OF 18 (1960) ON THURSDAY IN DANGER. MAYBE EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE..COULD SEE OUR FIRST MARCH SUBZERO MORNING IN 31 YEARS ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

INITIAL AREA OF FREEZING RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE TAF SITES. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH BETTER LIFT MOVING IN.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE OVER FROM FREEZING RAIN
TO RAIN GIVEN THE WARM SURGE AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE SLOWED BY
SNOWPACK. BEST ESTIMATES AT THIS TIME WOULD BE IN THE
031500Z-031800Z TIME FRAME FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AROUND
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS SUSTAINED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
CONTINUES OVER SNOWPACK. LIFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE DEWPOINTS BEGIN ADVECTING IN
OVER SNOWPACK...ENHANCING THREAT FOR FOG/LOW CEILINGS.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST A 60-65 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO
THE SNOWPACK...RESULTING IN A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT. WILL ADD
THIS TO THE FORECAST.

SURFACE WINDS 130-160 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER
AROUND TO 180-200 DEGREES AT 12-15 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCALIZED SURFACE GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL JET CAN BREAK THROUGH THE SURFACE INVERSION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

















000
FXUS63 KIND 031125
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
625 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING FEATURING THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN THURSDAY WITH DRY CHILLY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY NEARING 30 DEGREES.

REALLY FEELS LIKE WE ARE GETTING THE KITCHEN SINK TOSSED AT US OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW ALL ON THE
DOCKET. FIRST FOCUS IS ON THE ICING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.

OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NOW REPORTING FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN
PRECIP...WHICH IS PROBABLY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THINK
SLEET IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AT ONSET AS THE DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ERODES. THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER ARE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP STARTING. SURFACE TEMPS THEN BECOME
THE MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LONG THE FREEZING RAIN LASTS. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED A BIT TOO COOL OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT IN GENERAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB FURTHER SOUTH. RAP/HRRR/WRF
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE 32F FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING BUT HINTING AT A DELAY
OVER EARLIER GUIDANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL APPEARS ENTIRE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.

OVERALL QPF VALUES FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE 0.10 TO 0.15
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND THE TIMING COULD NOT BE WORSE AS THE
MORNING RUSH WILL BE IMPACTED. IN AN EFFORT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF
THE IMPACTS...GOING TO SWITCH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND STRESS THE ICING POTENTIAL. IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. EVEN AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE
32F...THE FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY LEND TO AT LEAST SOME ICING TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMP CAN GET TO 33-34F LATER IN THE
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOLAR RADIATION WILL WORK AS AN OPPOSING
FORCE TO MINIMIZE ICING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AS EARLY MARCH
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY EFFICIENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 17Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN FALL AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTHWEST TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE
SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS
CONSIDERING THE FROZEN GROUND AND AMBIENT SNOWPACK WHICH WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY MELT. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING REMAIN CONCERNS
GOING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

TEMPS...UTILIZED RAP/HRRR BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
BIT WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...MIXING
WITH THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINOR...ON THE ORDER OF A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT BEST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH DRY COLD
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE OF IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A CLEAR TREND.
NAM/WRF/UKMET ALL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA. OP GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW SETUP. THE SREF/ECMWF/GGEM ARE ALL IN
BETWEEN.

A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS WARRANTED RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SAME TIME...RULING OUT THE MORE NORTHERN
NAM/WRF/UKMET GROUP COMPLETELY WOULD BE FOOLISH...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW THE UKMET HAS PERFORMED AS OF LATE. PRESENCE OF
DEFORMATION BANDING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE AND A
STRONG PHASED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH ARGUE IN A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION THAN THE OP GFS. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
JET TO OUR N/NW SHOULD ENHANCE FORCING AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGHER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1 WOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON POTENTIAL ACCUMS.

TAKING THIS ALL INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL THINKING IS A SHARP CUTOFF ALIGNING SOMEWHERE OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. TAKE AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY UP TO 5 TO POSSIBLY 6
INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM BEDFORD TO SEYMOUR. SHOULD THE
CONSENSUS TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE
RAISED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL INTRODUCE A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER
FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS
TIME IN SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING 6 INCHES. SHOULD THE CONSENSUS
TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MODEL CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE
RAISED. STAY TUNED AS THIS SETUP REMAINS FLUID AND IS LIKELY TO
CHANGE FURTHER IN THE COMING 24-36 HOURS.

ANY SNOW WILL END BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TAKING
OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAVMOS WEDNESDAY...THEN TOOK A
BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. NEAR MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT THEN UNDERCUT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. STRONG LIKELIHOOD ANOTHER RECORD FALLS AT
INDY. LOW MAX OF 18 (1960) ON THURSDAY IN DANGER. MAYBE EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE..COULD SEE OUR FIRST MARCH SUBZERO MORNING IN 31 YEARS ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

INITIAL AREA OF FREEZING RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE TAF SITES. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH BETTER LIFT MOVING IN.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE OVER FROM FREEZING RAIN
TO RAIN GIVEN THE WARM SURGE AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE SLOWED BY
SNOWPACK. BEST ESTIMATES AT THIS TIME WOULD BE IN THE
031500Z-031800Z TIME FRAME FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AROUND
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS SUSTAINED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
CONTINUES OVER SNOWPACK. LIFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE DEWPOINTS BEGIN ADVECTING IN
OVER SNOWPACK...ENHANCING THREAT FOR FOG/LOW CEILINGS.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST A 60-65 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO
THE SNOWPACK...RESULTING IN A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT. WILL ADD
THIS TO THE FORECAST.

SURFACE WINDS 130-160 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER
AROUND TO 180-200 DEGREES AT 12-15 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCALIZED SURFACE GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL JET CAN BREAK THROUGH THE SURFACE INVERSION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 031125
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
625 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING FEATURING THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN THURSDAY WITH DRY CHILLY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY NEARING 30 DEGREES.

REALLY FEELS LIKE WE ARE GETTING THE KITCHEN SINK TOSSED AT US OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW ALL ON THE
DOCKET. FIRST FOCUS IS ON THE ICING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.

OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NOW REPORTING FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN
PRECIP...WHICH IS PROBABLY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THINK
SLEET IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AT ONSET AS THE DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ERODES. THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER ARE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP STARTING. SURFACE TEMPS THEN BECOME
THE MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LONG THE FREEZING RAIN LASTS. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED A BIT TOO COOL OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT IN GENERAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB FURTHER SOUTH. RAP/HRRR/WRF
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE 32F FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING BUT HINTING AT A DELAY
OVER EARLIER GUIDANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL APPEARS ENTIRE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.

OVERALL QPF VALUES FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE 0.10 TO 0.15
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND THE TIMING COULD NOT BE WORSE AS THE
MORNING RUSH WILL BE IMPACTED. IN AN EFFORT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF
THE IMPACTS...GOING TO SWITCH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND STRESS THE ICING POTENTIAL. IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. EVEN AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE
32F...THE FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY LEND TO AT LEAST SOME ICING TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMP CAN GET TO 33-34F LATER IN THE
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOLAR RADIATION WILL WORK AS AN OPPOSING
FORCE TO MINIMIZE ICING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AS EARLY MARCH
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY EFFICIENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 17Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN FALL AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTHWEST TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE
SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS
CONSIDERING THE FROZEN GROUND AND AMBIENT SNOWPACK WHICH WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY MELT. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING REMAIN CONCERNS
GOING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

TEMPS...UTILIZED RAP/HRRR BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
BIT WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...MIXING
WITH THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINOR...ON THE ORDER OF A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT BEST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH DRY COLD
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE OF IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A CLEAR TREND.
NAM/WRF/UKMET ALL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA. OP GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW SETUP. THE SREF/ECMWF/GGEM ARE ALL IN
BETWEEN.

A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS WARRANTED RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SAME TIME...RULING OUT THE MORE NORTHERN
NAM/WRF/UKMET GROUP COMPLETELY WOULD BE FOOLISH...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW THE UKMET HAS PERFORMED AS OF LATE. PRESENCE OF
DEFORMATION BANDING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE AND A
STRONG PHASED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH ARGUE IN A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION THAN THE OP GFS. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
JET TO OUR N/NW SHOULD ENHANCE FORCING AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGHER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1 WOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON POTENTIAL ACCUMS.

TAKING THIS ALL INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL THINKING IS A SHARP CUTOFF ALIGNING SOMEWHERE OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. TAKE AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY UP TO 5 TO POSSIBLY 6
INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM BEDFORD TO SEYMOUR. SHOULD THE
CONSENSUS TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE
RAISED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL INTRODUCE A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER
FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS
TIME IN SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING 6 INCHES. SHOULD THE CONSENSUS
TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MODEL CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE
RAISED. STAY TUNED AS THIS SETUP REMAINS FLUID AND IS LIKELY TO
CHANGE FURTHER IN THE COMING 24-36 HOURS.

ANY SNOW WILL END BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TAKING
OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAVMOS WEDNESDAY...THEN TOOK A
BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. NEAR MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT THEN UNDERCUT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. STRONG LIKELIHOOD ANOTHER RECORD FALLS AT
INDY. LOW MAX OF 18 (1960) ON THURSDAY IN DANGER. MAYBE EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE..COULD SEE OUR FIRST MARCH SUBZERO MORNING IN 31 YEARS ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

INITIAL AREA OF FREEZING RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE TAF SITES. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH BETTER LIFT MOVING IN.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE OVER FROM FREEZING RAIN
TO RAIN GIVEN THE WARM SURGE AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE SLOWED BY
SNOWPACK. BEST ESTIMATES AT THIS TIME WOULD BE IN THE
031500Z-031800Z TIME FRAME FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AROUND
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS SUSTAINED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
CONTINUES OVER SNOWPACK. LIFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE DEWPOINTS BEGIN ADVECTING IN
OVER SNOWPACK...ENHANCING THREAT FOR FOG/LOW CEILINGS.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST A 60-65 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO
THE SNOWPACK...RESULTING IN A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT. WILL ADD
THIS TO THE FORECAST.

SURFACE WINDS 130-160 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER
AROUND TO 180-200 DEGREES AT 12-15 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCALIZED SURFACE GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL JET CAN BREAK THROUGH THE SURFACE INVERSION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS















000
FXUS63 KIND 031035
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
533 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING FEATURING THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN THURSDAY WITH DRY CHILLY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY NEARING 30 DEGREES.

REALLY FEELS LIKE WE ARE GETTING THE KITCHEN SINK TOSSED AT US OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW ALL ON THE
DOCKET. FIRST FOCUS IS ON THE ICING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.

OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NOW REPORTING FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN
PRECIP...WHICH IS PROBABLY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THINK
SLEET IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AT ONSET AS THE DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ERODES. THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER ARE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP STARTING. SURFACE TEMPS THEN BECOME
THE MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LONG THE FREEZING RAIN LASTS. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED A BIT TOO COOL OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT IN GENERAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB FURTHER SOUTH. RAP/HRRR/WRF
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE 32F FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING BUT HINTING AT A DELAY
OVER EARLIER GUIDANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL APPEARS ENTIRE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.

OVERALL QPF VALUES FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE 0.10 TO 0.15
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND THE TIMING COULD NOT BE WORSE AS THE
MORNING RUSH WILL BE IMPACTED. IN AN EFFORT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF
THE IMPACTS...GOING TO SWITCH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND STRESS THE ICING POTENTIAL. IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. EVEN AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE
32F...THE FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY LEND TO AT LEAST SOME ICING TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMP CAN GET TO 33-34F LATER IN THE
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOLAR RADIATION WILL WORK AS AN OPPOSING
FORCE TO MINIMIZE ICING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AS EARLY MARCH
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY EFFICIENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 17Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN FALL AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTHWEST TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE
SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS
CONSIDERING THE FROZEN GROUND AND AMBIENT SNOWPACK WHICH WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY MELT. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING REMAIN CONCERNS
GOING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

TEMPS...UTILIZED RAP/HRRR BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
BIT WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...MIXING
WITH THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINOR...ON THE ORDER OF A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT BEST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH DRY COLD
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE OF IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A CLEAR TREND.
NAM/WRF/UKMET ALL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA. OP GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW SETUP. THE SREF/ECMWF/GGEM ARE ALL IN
BETWEEN.

A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS WARRANTED RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SAME TIME...RULING OUT THE MORE NORTHERN
NAM/WRF/UKMET GROUP COMPLETELY WOULD BE FOOLISH...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW THE UKMET HAS PERFORMED AS OF LATE. PRESENCE OF
DEFORMATION BANDING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE AND A
STRONG PHASED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH ARGUE IN A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION THAN THE OP GFS. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
JET TO OUR N/NW SHOULD ENHANCE FORCING AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGHER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1 WOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON POTENTIAL ACCUMS.

TAKING THIS ALL INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL THINKING IS A SHARP CUTOFF ALIGNING SOMEWHERE OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. TAKE AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY UP TO 5 TO POSSIBLY 6
INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM BEDFORD TO SEYMOUR. SHOULD THE
CONSENSUS TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE
RAISED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL INTRODUCE A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER
FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS
TIME IN SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING 6 INCHES. SHOULD THE CONSENSUS
TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED.
STAY TUNED AS THIS SETUP REMAINS FLUID AND IS LIKELY TO CHANGE
FURTHER IN THE COMING 24-36 HOURS.

ANY SNOW WILL END BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TAKING
OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAVMOS WEDNESDAY...THEN TOOK A
BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. NEAR MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT THEN UNDERCUT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. STRONG LIKELIHOOD ANOTHER RECORD FALLS AT
INDY. LOW MAX OF 18 (1960) ON THURSDAY IN DANGER. MAYBE EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE..COULD SEE OUR FIRST MARCH SUBZERO MORNING IN 31 YEARS ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

INITIAL AREA OF FREEZING RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE TAF SITES. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH BETTER LIFT MOVING IN.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE OVER FROM FREEZING RAIN
TO RAIN GIVEN THE WARM SURGE AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE SLOWED BY
SNOWPACK. BEST ESTIMATES AT THIS TIME WOULD BE IN THE
031500Z-031800Z TIME FRAME FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AROUND
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS SUSTAINED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
CONTINUES OVER SNOWPACK. LIFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE DEWPOINTS BEGIN ADVECTING IN
OVER SNOWPACK...ENHANCING THREAT FOR FOG/LOW CEILINGS.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST A 60-65 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO
THE SNOWPACK...RESULTING IN A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT. WILL ADD
THIS TO THE FORECAST.

SURFACE WINDS 130-160 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER
AROUND TO 180-200 DEGREES AT 12-15 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCALIZED SURFACE GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL JET CAN BREAK THROUGH THE SURFACE INVERSION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 031035
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
533 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING FEATURING THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN THURSDAY WITH DRY CHILLY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY NEARING 30 DEGREES.

REALLY FEELS LIKE WE ARE GETTING THE KITCHEN SINK TOSSED AT US OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW ALL ON THE
DOCKET. FIRST FOCUS IS ON THE ICING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.

OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NOW REPORTING FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN
PRECIP...WHICH IS PROBABLY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THINK
SLEET IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AT ONSET AS THE DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ERODES. THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER ARE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP STARTING. SURFACE TEMPS THEN BECOME
THE MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LONG THE FREEZING RAIN LASTS. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED A BIT TOO COOL OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT IN GENERAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB FURTHER SOUTH. RAP/HRRR/WRF
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE 32F FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING BUT HINTING AT A DELAY
OVER EARLIER GUIDANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL APPEARS ENTIRE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.

OVERALL QPF VALUES FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE 0.10 TO 0.15
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND THE TIMING COULD NOT BE WORSE AS THE
MORNING RUSH WILL BE IMPACTED. IN AN EFFORT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF
THE IMPACTS...GOING TO SWITCH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND STRESS THE ICING POTENTIAL. IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. EVEN AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE
32F...THE FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY LEND TO AT LEAST SOME ICING TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMP CAN GET TO 33-34F LATER IN THE
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOLAR RADIATION WILL WORK AS AN OPPOSING
FORCE TO MINIMIZE ICING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AS EARLY MARCH
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY EFFICIENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 17Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN FALL AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTHWEST TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE
SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS
CONSIDERING THE FROZEN GROUND AND AMBIENT SNOWPACK WHICH WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY MELT. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING REMAIN CONCERNS
GOING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

TEMPS...UTILIZED RAP/HRRR BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
BIT WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...MIXING
WITH THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINOR...ON THE ORDER OF A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT BEST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH DRY COLD
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE OF IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A CLEAR TREND.
NAM/WRF/UKMET ALL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA. OP GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW SETUP. THE SREF/ECMWF/GGEM ARE ALL IN
BETWEEN.

A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS WARRANTED RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SAME TIME...RULING OUT THE MORE NORTHERN
NAM/WRF/UKMET GROUP COMPLETELY WOULD BE FOOLISH...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW THE UKMET HAS PERFORMED AS OF LATE. PRESENCE OF
DEFORMATION BANDING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE AND A
STRONG PHASED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH ARGUE IN A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION THAN THE OP GFS. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
JET TO OUR N/NW SHOULD ENHANCE FORCING AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGHER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1 WOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON POTENTIAL ACCUMS.

TAKING THIS ALL INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL THINKING IS A SHARP CUTOFF ALIGNING SOMEWHERE OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. TAKE AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY UP TO 5 TO POSSIBLY 6
INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM BEDFORD TO SEYMOUR. SHOULD THE
CONSENSUS TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE
RAISED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL INTRODUCE A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER
FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS
TIME IN SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING 6 INCHES. SHOULD THE CONSENSUS
TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED.
STAY TUNED AS THIS SETUP REMAINS FLUID AND IS LIKELY TO CHANGE
FURTHER IN THE COMING 24-36 HOURS.

ANY SNOW WILL END BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TAKING
OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAVMOS WEDNESDAY...THEN TOOK A
BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. NEAR MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT THEN UNDERCUT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. STRONG LIKELIHOOD ANOTHER RECORD FALLS AT
INDY. LOW MAX OF 18 (1960) ON THURSDAY IN DANGER. MAYBE EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE..COULD SEE OUR FIRST MARCH SUBZERO MORNING IN 31 YEARS ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

INITIAL AREA OF FREEZING RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE TAF SITES. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH BETTER LIFT MOVING IN.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE OVER FROM FREEZING RAIN
TO RAIN GIVEN THE WARM SURGE AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE SLOWED BY
SNOWPACK. BEST ESTIMATES AT THIS TIME WOULD BE IN THE
031500Z-031800Z TIME FRAME FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AROUND
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS SUSTAINED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
CONTINUES OVER SNOWPACK. LIFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE DEWPOINTS BEGIN ADVECTING IN
OVER SNOWPACK...ENHANCING THREAT FOR FOG/LOW CEILINGS.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST A 60-65 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO
THE SNOWPACK...RESULTING IN A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT. WILL ADD
THIS TO THE FORECAST.

SURFACE WINDS 130-160 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER
AROUND TO 180-200 DEGREES AT 12-15 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCALIZED SURFACE GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL JET CAN BREAK THROUGH THE SURFACE INVERSION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 031024
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
523 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING FEATURING THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN THURSDAY WITH DRY CHILLY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY NEARING 30 DEGREES.

REALLY FEELS LIKE WE ARE GETTING THE KITCHEN SINK TOSSED AT US OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW ALL ON THE
DOCKET. FIRST FOCUS IS ON THE ICING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.

OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NOW REPORTING FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN
PRECIP...WHICH IS PROBABLY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THINK
SLEET IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AT ONSET AS THE DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ERODES. THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER ARE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP STARTING. SURFACE TEMPS THEN BECOME
THE MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LONG THE FREEZING RAIN LASTS. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED A BIT TOO COOL OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT IN GENERAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB FURTHER SOUTH. RAP/HRRR/WRF
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE 32F FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING BUT HINTING AT A DELAY
OVER EARLIER GUIDANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL APPEARS ENTIRE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.

OVERALL QPF VALUES FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE 0.10 TO 0.15
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND THE TIMING COULD NOT BE WORSE AS THE
MORNING RUSH WILL BE IMPACTED. IN AN EFFORT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF
THE IMPACTS...GOING TO SWITCH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND STRESS THE ICING POTENTIAL. IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. EVEN AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE
32F...THE FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY LEND TO AT LEAST SOME ICING TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMP CAN GET TO 33-34F LATER IN THE
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOLAR RADIATION WILL WORK AS AN OPPOSING
FORCE TO MINIMIZE ICING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AS EARLY MARCH
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY EFFICIENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 17Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN FALL AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTHWEST TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE
SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS
CONSIDERING THE FROZEN GROUND AND AMBIENT SNOWPACK WHICH WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY MELT. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING REMAIN CONCERNS
GOING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

TEMPS...UTILIZED RAP/HRRR BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
BIT WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...MIXING
WITH THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINOR...ON THE ORDER OF A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT BEST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH DRY COLD
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE OF IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A CLEAR TREND.
NAM/WRF/UKMET ALL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA. OP GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW SETUP. THE SREF/ECMWF/GGEM ARE ALL IN
BETWEEN.

A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS WARRANTED RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SAME TIME...RULING OUT THE MORE NORTHERN
NAM/WRF/UKMET GROUP COMPLETELY WOULD BE FOOLISH...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW WELL THE UKMET HAS PERFORMED AS OF LATE. PRESENCE OF
DEFORMATION BANDING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE AND A
STRONG PHASED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH ARGUE IN A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION THAN THE OP GFS. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
JET TO OUR N/NW SHOULD ENHANCE FORCING AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGHER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1 WOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON POTENTIAL ACCUMS.

TAKING THIS ALL INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL THINKING IS A SHARP CUTOFF ALIGNING SOMEWHERE OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. TAKE AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY UP TO 5 TO POSSIBLY 6
INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM BEDFORD TO SEYMOUR. WILL
INTRODUCE A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS TIME IN SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING
6 INCHES. SHOULD THE CONSENSUS TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CAMP...
AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. STAY TUNED AS THIS SETUP REMAINS
FLUID AND IS LIKELY TO CHANGE FURTHER IN THE COMING 24-36 HOURS.

ANY SNOW WILL END BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TAKING
OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAVMOS WEDNESDAY...THEN TOOK A
BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. NEAR MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT THEN UNDERCUT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. STRONG LIKELIHOOD ANOTHER RECORD FALLS AT
INDY. LOW MAX OF 18 (1960) ON THURSDAY IN DANGER. MAYBE EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE..COULD SEE OUR FIRST MARCH SUBZERO MORNING IN 31 YEARS ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

RADAR INDICATES SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY BEGIN
AFFECTING THE KIND TERMINAL WITHIN AN HOUR. PRECIPITATION DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE RESTRICTING VISIBILITY TOO MUCH...AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNRISE. LOWER MVFR CEILINGS STILL WELL BACK INTO SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS...SO CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN 040-050 UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

A 60-65 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST
LATER THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR UNTIL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. DROPPING TO MVFR AROUND 10Z THIS
MORNING WITH A WINTRY MIX OF -FZRAPL. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN AND FINALLY BY AROUND NOON JUST RAIN FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE BY LATE
MORNING...AND THIS WILL HANG ON FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...UNTIL POSSIBLY AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR.

LOOK FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND AS
STATED ABOVE...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET BEGINNING
AROUND 09Z-11Z THIS MORNING. LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AS WE TREND TOWARDS IFR BY LATE MORNING...12-14Z. MODELS
INDICATE WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION BY MIDDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL RAIN..HOWEVER GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
WILL NOT IMPROVE FROM THE IFR...POSSIBLY SOME LIFR(?) FLIGHT
CATEGORY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 031024
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
523 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING FEATURING THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN THURSDAY WITH DRY CHILLY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY NEARING 30 DEGREES.

REALLY FEELS LIKE WE ARE GETTING THE KITCHEN SINK TOSSED AT US OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW ALL ON THE
DOCKET. FIRST FOCUS IS ON THE ICING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.

OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NOW REPORTING FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN
PRECIP...WHICH IS PROBABLY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THINK
SLEET IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AT ONSET AS THE DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ERODES. THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER ARE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP STARTING. SURFACE TEMPS THEN BECOME
THE MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LONG THE FREEZING RAIN LASTS. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED A BIT TOO COOL OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT IN GENERAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB FURTHER SOUTH. RAP/HRRR/WRF
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE 32F FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING BUT HINTING AT A DELAY
OVER EARLIER GUIDANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL APPEARS ENTIRE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.

OVERALL QPF VALUES FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE 0.10 TO 0.15
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND THE TIMING COULD NOT BE WORSE AS THE
MORNING RUSH WILL BE IMPACTED. IN AN EFFORT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF
THE IMPACTS...GOING TO SWITCH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND STRESS THE ICING POTENTIAL. IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. EVEN AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE
32F...THE FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY LEND TO AT LEAST SOME ICING TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMP CAN GET TO 33-34F LATER IN THE
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOLAR RADIATION WILL WORK AS AN OPPOSING
FORCE TO MINIMIZE ICING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AS EARLY MARCH
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY EFFICIENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 17Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN FALL AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTHWEST TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE
SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS
CONSIDERING THE FROZEN GROUND AND AMBIENT SNOWPACK WHICH WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY MELT. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING REMAIN CONCERNS
GOING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

TEMPS...UTILIZED RAP/HRRR BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
BIT WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...MIXING
WITH THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINOR...ON THE ORDER OF A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT BEST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH DRY COLD
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE OF IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A CLEAR TREND.
NAM/WRF/UKMET ALL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA. OP GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW SETUP. THE SREF/ECMWF/GGEM ARE ALL IN
BETWEEN.

A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS WARRANTED RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SAME TIME...RULING OUT THE MORE NORTHERN
NAM/WRF/UKMET GROUP COMPLETELY WOULD BE FOOLISH...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW WELL THE UKMET HAS PERFORMED AS OF LATE. PRESENCE OF
DEFORMATION BANDING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE AND A
STRONG PHASED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH ARGUE IN A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION THAN THE OP GFS. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
JET TO OUR N/NW SHOULD ENHANCE FORCING AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGHER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1 WOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON POTENTIAL ACCUMS.

TAKING THIS ALL INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL THINKING IS A SHARP CUTOFF ALIGNING SOMEWHERE OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. TAKE AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY UP TO 5 TO POSSIBLY 6
INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM BEDFORD TO SEYMOUR. WILL
INTRODUCE A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS TIME IN SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING
6 INCHES. SHOULD THE CONSENSUS TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CAMP...
AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. STAY TUNED AS THIS SETUP REMAINS
FLUID AND IS LIKELY TO CHANGE FURTHER IN THE COMING 24-36 HOURS.

ANY SNOW WILL END BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TAKING
OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAVMOS WEDNESDAY...THEN TOOK A
BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. NEAR MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT THEN UNDERCUT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. STRONG LIKELIHOOD ANOTHER RECORD FALLS AT
INDY. LOW MAX OF 18 (1960) ON THURSDAY IN DANGER. MAYBE EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE..COULD SEE OUR FIRST MARCH SUBZERO MORNING IN 31 YEARS ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

RADAR INDICATES SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY BEGIN
AFFECTING THE KIND TERMINAL WITHIN AN HOUR. PRECIPITATION DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE RESTRICTING VISIBILITY TOO MUCH...AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNRISE. LOWER MVFR CEILINGS STILL WELL BACK INTO SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS...SO CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN 040-050 UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

A 60-65 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST
LATER THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR UNTIL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. DROPPING TO MVFR AROUND 10Z THIS
MORNING WITH A WINTRY MIX OF -FZRAPL. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN AND FINALLY BY AROUND NOON JUST RAIN FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE BY LATE
MORNING...AND THIS WILL HANG ON FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...UNTIL POSSIBLY AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR.

LOOK FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND AS
STATED ABOVE...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET BEGINNING
AROUND 09Z-11Z THIS MORNING. LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AS WE TREND TOWARDS IFR BY LATE MORNING...12-14Z. MODELS
INDICATE WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION BY MIDDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL RAIN..HOWEVER GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
WILL NOT IMPROVE FROM THE IFR...POSSIBLY SOME LIFR(?) FLIGHT
CATEGORY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 031024
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
523 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING FEATURING THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN THURSDAY WITH DRY CHILLY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY NEARING 30 DEGREES.

REALLY FEELS LIKE WE ARE GETTING THE KITCHEN SINK TOSSED AT US OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW ALL ON THE
DOCKET. FIRST FOCUS IS ON THE ICING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.

OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NOW REPORTING FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN
PRECIP...WHICH IS PROBABLY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THINK
SLEET IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AT ONSET AS THE DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ERODES. THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER ARE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP STARTING. SURFACE TEMPS THEN BECOME
THE MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LONG THE FREEZING RAIN LASTS. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED A BIT TOO COOL OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT IN GENERAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB FURTHER SOUTH. RAP/HRRR/WRF
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE 32F FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING BUT HINTING AT A DELAY
OVER EARLIER GUIDANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL APPEARS ENTIRE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.

OVERALL QPF VALUES FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE 0.10 TO 0.15
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND THE TIMING COULD NOT BE WORSE AS THE
MORNING RUSH WILL BE IMPACTED. IN AN EFFORT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF
THE IMPACTS...GOING TO SWITCH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND STRESS THE ICING POTENTIAL. IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. EVEN AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE
32F...THE FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY LEND TO AT LEAST SOME ICING TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMP CAN GET TO 33-34F LATER IN THE
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOLAR RADIATION WILL WORK AS AN OPPOSING
FORCE TO MINIMIZE ICING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AS EARLY MARCH
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY EFFICIENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 17Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN FALL AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTHWEST TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE
SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS
CONSIDERING THE FROZEN GROUND AND AMBIENT SNOWPACK WHICH WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY MELT. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING REMAIN CONCERNS
GOING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

TEMPS...UTILIZED RAP/HRRR BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
BIT WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...MIXING
WITH THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINOR...ON THE ORDER OF A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT BEST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH DRY COLD
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE OF IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A CLEAR TREND.
NAM/WRF/UKMET ALL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA. OP GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW SETUP. THE SREF/ECMWF/GGEM ARE ALL IN
BETWEEN.

A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS WARRANTED RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SAME TIME...RULING OUT THE MORE NORTHERN
NAM/WRF/UKMET GROUP COMPLETELY WOULD BE FOOLISH...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW WELL THE UKMET HAS PERFORMED AS OF LATE. PRESENCE OF
DEFORMATION BANDING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE AND A
STRONG PHASED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH ARGUE IN A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION THAN THE OP GFS. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
JET TO OUR N/NW SHOULD ENHANCE FORCING AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGHER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1 WOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON POTENTIAL ACCUMS.

TAKING THIS ALL INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL THINKING IS A SHARP CUTOFF ALIGNING SOMEWHERE OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. TAKE AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY UP TO 5 TO POSSIBLY 6
INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM BEDFORD TO SEYMOUR. WILL
INTRODUCE A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS TIME IN SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING
6 INCHES. SHOULD THE CONSENSUS TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CAMP...
AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. STAY TUNED AS THIS SETUP REMAINS
FLUID AND IS LIKELY TO CHANGE FURTHER IN THE COMING 24-36 HOURS.

ANY SNOW WILL END BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TAKING
OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAVMOS WEDNESDAY...THEN TOOK A
BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. NEAR MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT THEN UNDERCUT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. STRONG LIKELIHOOD ANOTHER RECORD FALLS AT
INDY. LOW MAX OF 18 (1960) ON THURSDAY IN DANGER. MAYBE EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE..COULD SEE OUR FIRST MARCH SUBZERO MORNING IN 31 YEARS ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

RADAR INDICATES SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY BEGIN
AFFECTING THE KIND TERMINAL WITHIN AN HOUR. PRECIPITATION DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE RESTRICTING VISIBILITY TOO MUCH...AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNRISE. LOWER MVFR CEILINGS STILL WELL BACK INTO SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS...SO CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN 040-050 UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

A 60-65 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST
LATER THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR UNTIL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. DROPPING TO MVFR AROUND 10Z THIS
MORNING WITH A WINTRY MIX OF -FZRAPL. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN AND FINALLY BY AROUND NOON JUST RAIN FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE BY LATE
MORNING...AND THIS WILL HANG ON FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...UNTIL POSSIBLY AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR.

LOOK FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND AS
STATED ABOVE...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET BEGINNING
AROUND 09Z-11Z THIS MORNING. LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AS WE TREND TOWARDS IFR BY LATE MORNING...12-14Z. MODELS
INDICATE WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION BY MIDDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL RAIN..HOWEVER GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
WILL NOT IMPROVE FROM THE IFR...POSSIBLY SOME LIFR(?) FLIGHT
CATEGORY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 031023
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
523 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING FEATURING THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN THURSDAY WITH DRY CHILLY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY NEARING 30 DEGREES.

REALLY FEELS LIKE WE ARE GETTING THE KITCHEN SINK TOSSED AT US OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW ALL ON THE
DOCKET. FIRST FOCUS IS ON THE ICING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.

OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NOW REPORTING FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN
PRECIP...WHICH IS PROBABLY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THINK
SLEET IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AT ONSET AS THE DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ERODES. THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER ARE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP STARTING. SURFACE TEMPS THEN BECOME
THE MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LONG THE FREEZING RAIN LASTS. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED A BIT TOO COOL OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT IN GENERAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB FURTHER SOUTH. RAP/HRRR/WRF
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE 32F FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING BUT HINTING AT A DELAY
OVER EARLIER GUIDANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL APPEARS ENTIRE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.

OVERALL QPF VALUES FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE 0.10 TO 0.15
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND THE TIMING COULD NOT BE WORSE AS THE
MORNING RUSH WILL BE IMPACTED. IN AN EFFORT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF
THE IMPACTS...GOING TO SWITCH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND STRESS THE ICING POTENTIAL. IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. EVEN AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE
32F...THE FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY LEND TO AT LEAST SOME ICING TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMP CAN GET TO 33-34F LATER IN THE
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOLAR RADIATION WILL WORK AS AN OPPOSING
FORCE TO MINIMIZE ICING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AS EARLY MARCH
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY EFFICIENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 17Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN FALL AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTHWEST TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE
SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS
CONSIDERING THE FROZEN GROUND AND AMBIENT SNOWPACK WHICH WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY MELT. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING REMAIN CONCERNS
GOING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

TEMPS...UTILIZED RAP/HRRR BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
BIT WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...MIXING
WITH THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINOR...ON THE ORDER OF A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT BEST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH DRY COLD
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE OF IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A CLEAR TREND.
NAM/WRF/UKMET ALL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA. OP GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW SETUP. THE SREF/ECMWF/GGEM ARE ALL IN
BETWEEN.

A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS WARRANTED RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SAME TIME...RULING OUT THE MORE NORTHERN
NAM/WRF/UKMET GROUP COMPLETELY WOULD BE FOOLISH...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW WELL THE UKMET HAS PERFORMED AS OF LATE. PRESENCE OF
DEFORMATION BANDING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE AND A
STRONG PHASED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH ARGUE IN A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION THAN THE OP GFS. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
JET TO OUR N/NW SHOULD ENHANCE FORCING AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGHER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1 WOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON POTENTIAL ACCUMS.

TAKING THIS ALL INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL THINKING IS A SHARP CUTOFF ALIGNING SOMEWHERE OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. TAKE AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY UP TO 5 TO POSSIBLY 6
INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM BEDFORD TO SEYMOUR. SHOULD THE
CONSENSUS TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE
RAISED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL INTRODUCE A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER
FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS
TIME IN SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING 6 INCHES. SHOULD THE CONSENSUS
TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED.
STAY TUNED AS THIS SETUP REMAINS FLUID AND IS LIKELY TO CHANGE
FURTHER IN THE COMING 24-36 HOURS.

ANY SNOW WILL END BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TAKING
OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAVMOS WEDNESDAY...THEN TOOK A
BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. NEAR MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT THEN UNDERCUT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. STRONG LIKELIHOOD ANOTHER RECORD FALLS AT
INDY. LOW MAX OF 18 (1960) ON THURSDAY IN DANGER. MAYBE EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE..COULD SEE OUR FIRST MARCH SUBZERO MORNING IN 31 YEARS ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

RADAR INDICATES SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY BEGIN
AFFECTING THE KIND TERMINAL WITHIN AN HOUR. PRECIPITATION DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE RESTRICTING VISIBILITY TOO MUCH...AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNRISE. LOWER MVFR CEILINGS STILL WELL BACK INTO SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS...SO CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN 040-050 UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

A 60-65 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST
LATER THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR UNTIL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. DROPPING TO MVFR AROUND 10Z THIS
MORNING WITH A WINTRY MIX OF -FZRAPL. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN AND FINALLY BY AROUND NOON JUST RAIN FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE BY LATE
MORNING...AND THIS WILL HANG ON FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...UNTIL POSSIBLY AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR.

LOOK FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND AS
STATED ABOVE...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET BEGINNING
AROUND 09Z-11Z THIS MORNING. LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AS WE TREND TOWARDS IFR BY LATE MORNING...12-14Z. MODELS
INDICATE WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION BY MIDDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL RAIN..HOWEVER GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
WILL NOT IMPROVE FROM THE IFR...POSSIBLY SOME LIFR(?) FLIGHT
CATEGORY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 031023
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
523 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING FEATURING THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN THURSDAY WITH DRY CHILLY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY NEARING 30 DEGREES.

REALLY FEELS LIKE WE ARE GETTING THE KITCHEN SINK TOSSED AT US OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW ALL ON THE
DOCKET. FIRST FOCUS IS ON THE ICING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.

OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NOW REPORTING FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN
PRECIP...WHICH IS PROBABLY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THINK
SLEET IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AT ONSET AS THE DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ERODES. THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER ARE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP STARTING. SURFACE TEMPS THEN BECOME
THE MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LONG THE FREEZING RAIN LASTS. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED A BIT TOO COOL OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT IN GENERAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB FURTHER SOUTH. RAP/HRRR/WRF
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE 32F FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING BUT HINTING AT A DELAY
OVER EARLIER GUIDANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL APPEARS ENTIRE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.

OVERALL QPF VALUES FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE 0.10 TO 0.15
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND THE TIMING COULD NOT BE WORSE AS THE
MORNING RUSH WILL BE IMPACTED. IN AN EFFORT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF
THE IMPACTS...GOING TO SWITCH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND STRESS THE ICING POTENTIAL. IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. EVEN AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE
32F...THE FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY LEND TO AT LEAST SOME ICING TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMP CAN GET TO 33-34F LATER IN THE
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOLAR RADIATION WILL WORK AS AN OPPOSING
FORCE TO MINIMIZE ICING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AS EARLY MARCH
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY EFFICIENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 17Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN FALL AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTHWEST TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE
SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS
CONSIDERING THE FROZEN GROUND AND AMBIENT SNOWPACK WHICH WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY MELT. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING REMAIN CONCERNS
GOING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

TEMPS...UTILIZED RAP/HRRR BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
BIT WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...MIXING
WITH THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINOR...ON THE ORDER OF A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT BEST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH DRY COLD
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE OF IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A CLEAR TREND.
NAM/WRF/UKMET ALL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA. OP GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW SETUP. THE SREF/ECMWF/GGEM ARE ALL IN
BETWEEN.

A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS WARRANTED RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SAME TIME...RULING OUT THE MORE NORTHERN
NAM/WRF/UKMET GROUP COMPLETELY WOULD BE FOOLISH...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW WELL THE UKMET HAS PERFORMED AS OF LATE. PRESENCE OF
DEFORMATION BANDING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE AND A
STRONG PHASED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH ARGUE IN A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION THAN THE OP GFS. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
JET TO OUR N/NW SHOULD ENHANCE FORCING AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGHER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1 WOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON POTENTIAL ACCUMS.

TAKING THIS ALL INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL THINKING IS A SHARP CUTOFF ALIGNING SOMEWHERE OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. TAKE AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY UP TO 5 TO POSSIBLY 6
INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM BEDFORD TO SEYMOUR. SHOULD THE
CONSENSUS TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE
RAISED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL INTRODUCE A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER
FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS
TIME IN SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING 6 INCHES. SHOULD THE CONSENSUS
TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED.
STAY TUNED AS THIS SETUP REMAINS FLUID AND IS LIKELY TO CHANGE
FURTHER IN THE COMING 24-36 HOURS.

ANY SNOW WILL END BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TAKING
OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAVMOS WEDNESDAY...THEN TOOK A
BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. NEAR MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT THEN UNDERCUT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. STRONG LIKELIHOOD ANOTHER RECORD FALLS AT
INDY. LOW MAX OF 18 (1960) ON THURSDAY IN DANGER. MAYBE EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE..COULD SEE OUR FIRST MARCH SUBZERO MORNING IN 31 YEARS ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

RADAR INDICATES SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY BEGIN
AFFECTING THE KIND TERMINAL WITHIN AN HOUR. PRECIPITATION DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE RESTRICTING VISIBILITY TOO MUCH...AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNRISE. LOWER MVFR CEILINGS STILL WELL BACK INTO SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS...SO CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN 040-050 UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

A 60-65 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST
LATER THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR UNTIL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. DROPPING TO MVFR AROUND 10Z THIS
MORNING WITH A WINTRY MIX OF -FZRAPL. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN AND FINALLY BY AROUND NOON JUST RAIN FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE BY LATE
MORNING...AND THIS WILL HANG ON FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...UNTIL POSSIBLY AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR.

LOOK FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND AS
STATED ABOVE...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET BEGINNING
AROUND 09Z-11Z THIS MORNING. LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AS WE TREND TOWARDS IFR BY LATE MORNING...12-14Z. MODELS
INDICATE WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION BY MIDDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL RAIN..HOWEVER GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
WILL NOT IMPROVE FROM THE IFR...POSSIBLY SOME LIFR(?) FLIGHT
CATEGORY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 031023
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
523 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING FEATURING THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN THURSDAY WITH DRY CHILLY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY NEARING 30 DEGREES.

REALLY FEELS LIKE WE ARE GETTING THE KITCHEN SINK TOSSED AT US OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW ALL ON THE
DOCKET. FIRST FOCUS IS ON THE ICING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.

OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NOW REPORTING FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN
PRECIP...WHICH IS PROBABLY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THINK
SLEET IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AT ONSET AS THE DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ERODES. THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER ARE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP STARTING. SURFACE TEMPS THEN BECOME
THE MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LONG THE FREEZING RAIN LASTS. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED A BIT TOO COOL OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT IN GENERAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB FURTHER SOUTH. RAP/HRRR/WRF
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE 32F FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING BUT HINTING AT A DELAY
OVER EARLIER GUIDANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL APPEARS ENTIRE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.

OVERALL QPF VALUES FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE 0.10 TO 0.15
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND THE TIMING COULD NOT BE WORSE AS THE
MORNING RUSH WILL BE IMPACTED. IN AN EFFORT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF
THE IMPACTS...GOING TO SWITCH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND STRESS THE ICING POTENTIAL. IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. EVEN AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE
32F...THE FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY LEND TO AT LEAST SOME ICING TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMP CAN GET TO 33-34F LATER IN THE
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOLAR RADIATION WILL WORK AS AN OPPOSING
FORCE TO MINIMIZE ICING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AS EARLY MARCH
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY EFFICIENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 17Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN FALL AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTHWEST TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE
SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS
CONSIDERING THE FROZEN GROUND AND AMBIENT SNOWPACK WHICH WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY MELT. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING REMAIN CONCERNS
GOING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

TEMPS...UTILIZED RAP/HRRR BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
BIT WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...MIXING
WITH THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINOR...ON THE ORDER OF A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT BEST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH DRY COLD
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE OF IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A CLEAR TREND.
NAM/WRF/UKMET ALL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA. OP GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW SETUP. THE SREF/ECMWF/GGEM ARE ALL IN
BETWEEN.

A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS WARRANTED RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SAME TIME...RULING OUT THE MORE NORTHERN
NAM/WRF/UKMET GROUP COMPLETELY WOULD BE FOOLISH...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW WELL THE UKMET HAS PERFORMED AS OF LATE. PRESENCE OF
DEFORMATION BANDING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE AND A
STRONG PHASED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH ARGUE IN A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION THAN THE OP GFS. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
JET TO OUR N/NW SHOULD ENHANCE FORCING AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGHER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1 WOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON POTENTIAL ACCUMS.

TAKING THIS ALL INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL THINKING IS A SHARP CUTOFF ALIGNING SOMEWHERE OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. TAKE AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY UP TO 5 TO POSSIBLY 6
INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM BEDFORD TO SEYMOUR. SHOULD THE
CONSENSUS TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE
RAISED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL INTRODUCE A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER
FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS
TIME IN SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING 6 INCHES. SHOULD THE CONSENSUS
TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED.
STAY TUNED AS THIS SETUP REMAINS FLUID AND IS LIKELY TO CHANGE
FURTHER IN THE COMING 24-36 HOURS.

ANY SNOW WILL END BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TAKING
OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAVMOS WEDNESDAY...THEN TOOK A
BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. NEAR MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT THEN UNDERCUT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. STRONG LIKELIHOOD ANOTHER RECORD FALLS AT
INDY. LOW MAX OF 18 (1960) ON THURSDAY IN DANGER. MAYBE EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE..COULD SEE OUR FIRST MARCH SUBZERO MORNING IN 31 YEARS ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

RADAR INDICATES SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY BEGIN
AFFECTING THE KIND TERMINAL WITHIN AN HOUR. PRECIPITATION DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE RESTRICTING VISIBILITY TOO MUCH...AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNRISE. LOWER MVFR CEILINGS STILL WELL BACK INTO SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS...SO CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN 040-050 UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

A 60-65 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST
LATER THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR UNTIL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. DROPPING TO MVFR AROUND 10Z THIS
MORNING WITH A WINTRY MIX OF -FZRAPL. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN AND FINALLY BY AROUND NOON JUST RAIN FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE BY LATE
MORNING...AND THIS WILL HANG ON FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...UNTIL POSSIBLY AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR.

LOOK FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND AS
STATED ABOVE...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET BEGINNING
AROUND 09Z-11Z THIS MORNING. LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AS WE TREND TOWARDS IFR BY LATE MORNING...12-14Z. MODELS
INDICATE WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION BY MIDDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL RAIN..HOWEVER GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
WILL NOT IMPROVE FROM THE IFR...POSSIBLY SOME LIFR(?) FLIGHT
CATEGORY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 030842
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING FEATURING THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN THURSDAY WITH DRY CHILLY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY NEARING 30 DEGREES.

REALLY FEELS LIKE WE ARE GETTING THE KITCHEN SINK TOSSED AT US OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW ALL ON THE
DOCKET. FIRST FOCUS IS ON THE ICING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.

OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NOW REPORTING FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN
PRECIP...WHICH IS PROBABLY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THINK
SLEET IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AT ONSET AS THE DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ERODES. THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER ARE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP STARTING. SURFACE TEMPS THEN BECOME
THE MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LONG THE FREEZING RAIN LASTS. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED A BIT TOO COOL OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT IN GENERAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB FURTHER SOUTH. RAP/HRRR/WRF
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE 32F FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING BUT HINTING AT A DELAY
OVER EARLIER GUIDANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL APPEARS ENTIRE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.

OVERALL QPF VALUES FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE 0.10 TO 0.15
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND THE TIMING COULD NOT BE WORSE AS THE
MORNING RUSH WILL BE IMPACTED. IN AN EFFORT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF
THE IMPACTS...GOING TO SWITCH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND STRESS THE ICING POTENTIAL. IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. EVEN AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE
32F...THE FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY LEND TO AT LEAST SOME ICING TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMP CAN GET TO 33-34F LATER IN THE
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOLAR RADIATION WILL WORK AS AN OPPOSING
FORCE TO MINIMIZE ICING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AS EARLY MARCH
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY EFFICIENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 17Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN FALL AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTHWEST TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE
SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS
CONSIDERING THE FROZEN GROUND AND AMBIENT SNOWPACK WHICH WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY MELT. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING REMAIN CONCERNS
GOING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

TEMPS...UTILIZED RAP/HRRR BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
BIT WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...MIXING
WITH THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINOR...ON THE ORDER OF A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT BEST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH DRY COLD
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE OF IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A CLEAR TREND.
NAM/WRF/UKMET ALL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA. OP GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW SETUP. THE SREF/ECMWF/GGEM ARE ALL IN
BETWEEN.

A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS WARRANTED RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SAME TIME...RULING OUT THE MORE NORTHERN
NAM/WRF/UKMET GROUP COMPLETELY WOULD BE FOOLISH...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW THE UKMET HAS PERFORMED AS OF LATE. PRESENCE OF
DEFORMATION BANDING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE AND A
STRONG PHASED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH ARGUE IN A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION THAN THE OP GFS. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
JET TO OUR N/NW SHOULD ENHANCE FORCING AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGHER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1 WOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON POTENTIAL ACCUMS.

TAKING THIS ALL INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL THINKING IS A SHARP CUTOFF ALIGNING SOMEWHERE OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. TAKE AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY UP TO 5 TO POSSIBLY 6
INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM BEDFORD TO SEYMOUR. SHOULD THE
CONSENSUS TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE
RAISED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL INTRODUCE A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER
FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS
TIME IN SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING 6 INCHES. SHOULD THE CONSENSUS
TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED.
STAY TUNED AS THIS SETUP REMAINS FLUID AND IS LIKELY TO CHANGE
FURTHER IN THE COMING 24-36 HOURS.

ANY SNOW WILL END BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TAKING
OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAVMOS WEDNESDAY...THEN TOOK A
BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. NEAR MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT THEN UNDERCUT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. STRONG LIKELIHOOD ANOTHER RECORD FALLS AT
INDY. LOW MAX OF 18 (1960) ON THURSDAY IN DANGER. MAYBE EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE..COULD SEE OUR FIRST MARCH SUBZERO MORNING IN 31 YEARS ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

RADAR INDICATES SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY BEGIN
AFFECTING THE KIND TERMINAL WITHIN AN HOUR. PRECIPITATION DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE RESTRICTING VISIBILITY TOO MUCH...AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNRISE. LOWER MVFR CEILINGS STILL WELL BACK INTO SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS...SO CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN 040-050 UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

A 60-65 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST
LATER THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR UNTIL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. DROPPING TO MVFR AROUND 10Z THIS
MORNING WITH A WINTRY MIX OF -FZRAPL. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN AND FINALLY BY AROUND NOON JUST RAIN FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE BY LATE
MORNING...AND THIS WILL HANG ON FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...UNTIL POSSIBLY AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR.

LOOK FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND AS
STATED ABOVE...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET BEGINNING
AROUND 09Z-11Z THIS MORNING. LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AS WE TREND TOWARDS IFR BY LATE MORNING...12-14Z. MODELS
INDICATE WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION BY MIDDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL RAIN..HOWEVER GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
WILL NOT IMPROVE FROM THE IFR...POSSIBLY SOME LIFR(?) FLIGHT
CATEGORY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 030842
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING FEATURING THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN THURSDAY WITH DRY CHILLY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY NEARING 30 DEGREES.

REALLY FEELS LIKE WE ARE GETTING THE KITCHEN SINK TOSSED AT US OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW ALL ON THE
DOCKET. FIRST FOCUS IS ON THE ICING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.

OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NOW REPORTING FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN
PRECIP...WHICH IS PROBABLY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THINK
SLEET IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AT ONSET AS THE DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ERODES. THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER ARE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP STARTING. SURFACE TEMPS THEN BECOME
THE MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LONG THE FREEZING RAIN LASTS. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED A BIT TOO COOL OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT IN GENERAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB FURTHER SOUTH. RAP/HRRR/WRF
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE 32F FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING BUT HINTING AT A DELAY
OVER EARLIER GUIDANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL APPEARS ENTIRE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.

OVERALL QPF VALUES FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE 0.10 TO 0.15
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND THE TIMING COULD NOT BE WORSE AS THE
MORNING RUSH WILL BE IMPACTED. IN AN EFFORT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF
THE IMPACTS...GOING TO SWITCH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND STRESS THE ICING POTENTIAL. IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. EVEN AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE
32F...THE FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY LEND TO AT LEAST SOME ICING TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMP CAN GET TO 33-34F LATER IN THE
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOLAR RADIATION WILL WORK AS AN OPPOSING
FORCE TO MINIMIZE ICING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AS EARLY MARCH
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY EFFICIENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 17Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN FALL AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTHWEST TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE
SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS
CONSIDERING THE FROZEN GROUND AND AMBIENT SNOWPACK WHICH WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY MELT. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING REMAIN CONCERNS
GOING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

TEMPS...UTILIZED RAP/HRRR BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
BIT WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...MIXING
WITH THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINOR...ON THE ORDER OF A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT BEST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH DRY COLD
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE OF IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A CLEAR TREND.
NAM/WRF/UKMET ALL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA. OP GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW SETUP. THE SREF/ECMWF/GGEM ARE ALL IN
BETWEEN.

A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS WARRANTED RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SAME TIME...RULING OUT THE MORE NORTHERN
NAM/WRF/UKMET GROUP COMPLETELY WOULD BE FOOLISH...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW THE UKMET HAS PERFORMED AS OF LATE. PRESENCE OF
DEFORMATION BANDING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE AND A
STRONG PHASED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH ARGUE IN A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION THAN THE OP GFS. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
JET TO OUR N/NW SHOULD ENHANCE FORCING AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGHER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1 WOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON POTENTIAL ACCUMS.

TAKING THIS ALL INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL THINKING IS A SHARP CUTOFF ALIGNING SOMEWHERE OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. TAKE AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY UP TO 5 TO POSSIBLY 6
INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM BEDFORD TO SEYMOUR. SHOULD THE
CONSENSUS TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE
RAISED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL INTRODUCE A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER
FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS
TIME IN SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING 6 INCHES. SHOULD THE CONSENSUS
TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED.
STAY TUNED AS THIS SETUP REMAINS FLUID AND IS LIKELY TO CHANGE
FURTHER IN THE COMING 24-36 HOURS.

ANY SNOW WILL END BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TAKING
OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAVMOS WEDNESDAY...THEN TOOK A
BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. NEAR MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT THEN UNDERCUT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. STRONG LIKELIHOOD ANOTHER RECORD FALLS AT
INDY. LOW MAX OF 18 (1960) ON THURSDAY IN DANGER. MAYBE EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE..COULD SEE OUR FIRST MARCH SUBZERO MORNING IN 31 YEARS ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

RADAR INDICATES SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY BEGIN
AFFECTING THE KIND TERMINAL WITHIN AN HOUR. PRECIPITATION DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE RESTRICTING VISIBILITY TOO MUCH...AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNRISE. LOWER MVFR CEILINGS STILL WELL BACK INTO SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS...SO CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN 040-050 UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

A 60-65 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST
LATER THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR UNTIL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. DROPPING TO MVFR AROUND 10Z THIS
MORNING WITH A WINTRY MIX OF -FZRAPL. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN AND FINALLY BY AROUND NOON JUST RAIN FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE BY LATE
MORNING...AND THIS WILL HANG ON FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...UNTIL POSSIBLY AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR.

LOOK FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND AS
STATED ABOVE...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET BEGINNING
AROUND 09Z-11Z THIS MORNING. LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AS WE TREND TOWARDS IFR BY LATE MORNING...12-14Z. MODELS
INDICATE WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION BY MIDDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL RAIN..HOWEVER GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
WILL NOT IMPROVE FROM THE IFR...POSSIBLY SOME LIFR(?) FLIGHT
CATEGORY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 030842
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH LATE MORNING FEATURING THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN THURSDAY WITH DRY CHILLY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY NEARING 30 DEGREES.

REALLY FEELS LIKE WE ARE GETTING THE KITCHEN SINK TOSSED AT US OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW ALL ON THE
DOCKET. FIRST FOCUS IS ON THE ICING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.

OBS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NOW REPORTING FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN
PRECIP...WHICH IS PROBABLY A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THINK
SLEET IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AT ONSET AS THE DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ERODES. THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER ARE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP STARTING. SURFACE TEMPS THEN BECOME
THE MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LONG THE FREEZING RAIN LASTS. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED A BIT TOO COOL OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT IN GENERAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB FURTHER SOUTH. RAP/HRRR/WRF
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE 32F FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING BUT HINTING AT A DELAY
OVER EARLIER GUIDANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL APPEARS ENTIRE AREA WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.

OVERALL QPF VALUES FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE 0.10 TO 0.15
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND THE TIMING COULD NOT BE WORSE AS THE
MORNING RUSH WILL BE IMPACTED. IN AN EFFORT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF
THE IMPACTS...GOING TO SWITCH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND STRESS THE ICING POTENTIAL. IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. EVEN AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE
32F...THE FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY LEND TO AT LEAST SOME ICING TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMP CAN GET TO 33-34F LATER IN THE
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SOLAR RADIATION WILL WORK AS AN OPPOSING
FORCE TO MINIMIZE ICING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AS EARLY MARCH
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY EFFICIENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 17Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE RAIN FALL AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER WHERE
FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTHWEST TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE
SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS
CONSIDERING THE FROZEN GROUND AND AMBIENT SNOWPACK WHICH WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY MELT. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING REMAIN CONCERNS
GOING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

TEMPS...UTILIZED RAP/HRRR BLEND FOR HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
BIT WITH UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT...MIXING
WITH THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE MINOR...ON THE ORDER OF A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT BEST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH DRY COLD
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SURFACE WAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE OF IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A CLEAR TREND.
NAM/WRF/UKMET ALL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA. OP GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW SETUP. THE SREF/ECMWF/GGEM ARE ALL IN
BETWEEN.

A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS WARRANTED RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE SAME TIME...RULING OUT THE MORE NORTHERN
NAM/WRF/UKMET GROUP COMPLETELY WOULD BE FOOLISH...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW THE UKMET HAS PERFORMED AS OF LATE. PRESENCE OF
DEFORMATION BANDING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE AND A
STRONG PHASED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH ARGUE IN A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION THAN THE OP GFS. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
JET TO OUR N/NW SHOULD ENHANCE FORCING AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGHER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15/20 TO 1 WOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON POTENTIAL ACCUMS.

TAKING THIS ALL INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL THINKING IS A SHARP CUTOFF ALIGNING SOMEWHERE OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. TAKE AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY UP TO 5 TO POSSIBLY 6
INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM BEDFORD TO SEYMOUR. SHOULD THE
CONSENSUS TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE
RAISED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL INTRODUCE A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER
FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS
TIME IN SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING 6 INCHES. SHOULD THE CONSENSUS
TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CAMP...AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED.
STAY TUNED AS THIS SETUP REMAINS FLUID AND IS LIKELY TO CHANGE
FURTHER IN THE COMING 24-36 HOURS.

ANY SNOW WILL END BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TAKING
OVER THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAVMOS WEDNESDAY...THEN TOOK A
BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. NEAR MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT THEN UNDERCUT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS. STRONG LIKELIHOOD ANOTHER RECORD FALLS AT
INDY. LOW MAX OF 18 (1960) ON THURSDAY IN DANGER. MAYBE EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE..COULD SEE OUR FIRST MARCH SUBZERO MORNING IN 31 YEARS ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

RADAR INDICATES SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY BEGIN
AFFECTING THE KIND TERMINAL WITHIN AN HOUR. PRECIPITATION DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE RESTRICTING VISIBILITY TOO MUCH...AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNRISE. LOWER MVFR CEILINGS STILL WELL BACK INTO SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS...SO CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN 040-050 UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

A 60-65 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST
LATER THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR UNTIL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. DROPPING TO MVFR AROUND 10Z THIS
MORNING WITH A WINTRY MIX OF -FZRAPL. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN AND FINALLY BY AROUND NOON JUST RAIN FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE BY LATE
MORNING...AND THIS WILL HANG ON FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...UNTIL POSSIBLY AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR.

LOOK FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND AS
STATED ABOVE...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET BEGINNING
AROUND 09Z-11Z THIS MORNING. LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AS WE TREND TOWARDS IFR BY LATE MORNING...12-14Z. MODELS
INDICATE WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION BY MIDDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL RAIN..HOWEVER GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
WILL NOT IMPROVE FROM THE IFR...POSSIBLY SOME LIFR(?) FLIGHT
CATEGORY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 030829
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
327 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING FROM THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD FROM JUST PRIOR TO THE
TUESDAY MORNING RUSH THROUGH LATE MORNING WILL FEATURE THE THREAT
FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA AND RESULTS IN ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER
TO A MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW.

THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FOR A TIME TO OUR
SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL BE COLD AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 934 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATE...
RADAR IS CURRENTLY QUIET OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. ALL PRECIP SO
FAR IS LOCATED OVER KANSAS AND MISSOURI. LATEST IR SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A RAPID INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THOUGH OVER THE
LOWER MIDWEST...AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AFFECTING CENTRAL
INDIANA LATE TONIGHT. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO FORECASTED
START TIME OF 3AM EST TUESDAY.  UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA
VERY LATE TONIGHT...LIKELY JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THE EARLY
MORNING RUSH. POOR TIMING OBVIOUSLY AS THERMAL PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF PERHAPS A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX NORTHEAST...A
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX CENTRAL...AND MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN
SOUTHWEST INITIALLY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE NAM/SREF A BIT WARMER AND A BIT
FASTER WITH THE OVERALL TRANSITION THAN THE GFS AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...BUT BETWEEN WETBULB EFFECTS INITIALLY AND THE PRESENCE
OF A DEEP EXPANSIVE SNOWPACK...AM SKEPTICAL OF THE WARMER SIDE OF
THE SOLUTIONS AND WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE COOLER SOLUTIONS EARLY
ON.

AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK OF A 60+ KT
LOW LEVEL JET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z...SAVE FOR
PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING...FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH THIS TRANSITION OCCURRING IN THE INDY METRO
AROUND THE 16Z OR 11 AM EST TIME FRAME.

SREF PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS PROGRESSION IF
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE FORECAST GRIDS OWING TO THE THERMAL
DIFFERENCES ARTICULATED EARLIER.

WILL REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET AS LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL RUN THE
ADVISORY FROM 08Z THROUGH 17Z OR 3 AM THROUGH 12 PM EST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. LIKELY WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF THIS EARLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL MAKE THIS SIMPLER WITH A ONE SEGMENT
PRODUCT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

FOCUS THEN TRANSITIONS TO RAINFALL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND INTO
KENTUCKY BUT BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN NORTH...HALF INCH CENTRAL...AND UP TO AN
INCH SOUTH...COMBINED WITH FROZEN GROUND...WHICH WILL EFFICIENTLY
CONVERT RAINFALL TO RUNOFF...AND A MELTING SNOWPACK WHICH LIKELY
CONTAINS ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT...MAY RESULT IN A FLOOD THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH ONLY SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RESULTANT COLD ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE THINGS TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AND FINALLY ALL SNOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME...MAYBE UP TO HALF AN INCH IN THE SOUTH.

GUIDANCE...EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH NAM...KEEP
THE BULK OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE RIVER AND
INTO KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE NORTH.
WILL CARRY LIKELIES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING
TO CHANCES AT BEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...HAVE AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS OF ROUGHLY 1-4 ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON
THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGE. LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. SMALL
CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE ON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WERE ACCEPTED WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THUS LITTLE
TO NO DIURNAL WARMING ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QFP WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

RADAR INDICATES SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY BEGIN
AFFECTING THE KIND TERMINAL WITHIN AN HOUR. PRECIPITATION DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE RESTRICTING VISIBILITY TOO MUCH...AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNRISE. LOWER MVFR CEILINGS STILL WELL BACK INTO SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS...SO CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN 040-050 UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

A 60-65 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST
LATER THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR UNTIL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. DROPPING TO MVFR AROUND 10Z THIS
MORNING WITH A WINTRY MIX OF -FZRAPL. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN AND FINALLY BY AROUND NOON JUST RAIN FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE BY LATE
MORNING...AND THIS WILL HANG ON FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...UNTIL POSSIBLY AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR.

LOOK FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND AS
STATED ABOVE...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET BEGINNING
AROUND 09Z-11Z THIS MORNING. LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AS WE TREND TOWARDS IFR BY LATE MORNING...12-14Z. MODELS
INDICATE WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION BY MIDDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL RAIN..HOWEVER GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
WILL NOT IMPROVE FROM THE IFR...POSSIBLY SOME LIFR(?) FLIGHT
CATEGORY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 030829
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
327 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING FROM THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD FROM JUST PRIOR TO THE
TUESDAY MORNING RUSH THROUGH LATE MORNING WILL FEATURE THE THREAT
FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA AND RESULTS IN ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER
TO A MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW.

THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FOR A TIME TO OUR
SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL BE COLD AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 934 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATE...
RADAR IS CURRENTLY QUIET OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. ALL PRECIP SO
FAR IS LOCATED OVER KANSAS AND MISSOURI. LATEST IR SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A RAPID INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THOUGH OVER THE
LOWER MIDWEST...AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AFFECTING CENTRAL
INDIANA LATE TONIGHT. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO FORECASTED
START TIME OF 3AM EST TUESDAY.  UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA
VERY LATE TONIGHT...LIKELY JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THE EARLY
MORNING RUSH. POOR TIMING OBVIOUSLY AS THERMAL PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF PERHAPS A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX NORTHEAST...A
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX CENTRAL...AND MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN
SOUTHWEST INITIALLY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE NAM/SREF A BIT WARMER AND A BIT
FASTER WITH THE OVERALL TRANSITION THAN THE GFS AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...BUT BETWEEN WETBULB EFFECTS INITIALLY AND THE PRESENCE
OF A DEEP EXPANSIVE SNOWPACK...AM SKEPTICAL OF THE WARMER SIDE OF
THE SOLUTIONS AND WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE COOLER SOLUTIONS EARLY
ON.

AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK OF A 60+ KT
LOW LEVEL JET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z...SAVE FOR
PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING...FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH THIS TRANSITION OCCURRING IN THE INDY METRO
AROUND THE 16Z OR 11 AM EST TIME FRAME.

SREF PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS PROGRESSION IF
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE FORECAST GRIDS OWING TO THE THERMAL
DIFFERENCES ARTICULATED EARLIER.

WILL REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET AS LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL RUN THE
ADVISORY FROM 08Z THROUGH 17Z OR 3 AM THROUGH 12 PM EST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. LIKELY WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF THIS EARLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL MAKE THIS SIMPLER WITH A ONE SEGMENT
PRODUCT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

FOCUS THEN TRANSITIONS TO RAINFALL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND INTO
KENTUCKY BUT BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN NORTH...HALF INCH CENTRAL...AND UP TO AN
INCH SOUTH...COMBINED WITH FROZEN GROUND...WHICH WILL EFFICIENTLY
CONVERT RAINFALL TO RUNOFF...AND A MELTING SNOWPACK WHICH LIKELY
CONTAINS ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT...MAY RESULT IN A FLOOD THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH ONLY SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RESULTANT COLD ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE THINGS TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AND FINALLY ALL SNOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME...MAYBE UP TO HALF AN INCH IN THE SOUTH.

GUIDANCE...EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH NAM...KEEP
THE BULK OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE RIVER AND
INTO KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE NORTH.
WILL CARRY LIKELIES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING
TO CHANCES AT BEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...HAVE AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS OF ROUGHLY 1-4 ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON
THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGE. LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. SMALL
CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE ON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WERE ACCEPTED WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THUS LITTLE
TO NO DIURNAL WARMING ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QFP WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

RADAR INDICATES SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY BEGIN
AFFECTING THE KIND TERMINAL WITHIN AN HOUR. PRECIPITATION DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE RESTRICTING VISIBILITY TOO MUCH...AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNRISE. LOWER MVFR CEILINGS STILL WELL BACK INTO SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS...SO CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN 040-050 UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

A 60-65 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST
LATER THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR UNTIL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. DROPPING TO MVFR AROUND 10Z THIS
MORNING WITH A WINTRY MIX OF -FZRAPL. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN AND FINALLY BY AROUND NOON JUST RAIN FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE BY LATE
MORNING...AND THIS WILL HANG ON FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...UNTIL POSSIBLY AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR.

LOOK FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND AS
STATED ABOVE...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET BEGINNING
AROUND 09Z-11Z THIS MORNING. LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AS WE TREND TOWARDS IFR BY LATE MORNING...12-14Z. MODELS
INDICATE WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION BY MIDDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL RAIN..HOWEVER GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
WILL NOT IMPROVE FROM THE IFR...POSSIBLY SOME LIFR(?) FLIGHT
CATEGORY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 030829
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
327 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING FROM THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD FROM JUST PRIOR TO THE
TUESDAY MORNING RUSH THROUGH LATE MORNING WILL FEATURE THE THREAT
FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA AND RESULTS IN ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER
TO A MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW.

THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FOR A TIME TO OUR
SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL BE COLD AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 934 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATE...
RADAR IS CURRENTLY QUIET OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. ALL PRECIP SO
FAR IS LOCATED OVER KANSAS AND MISSOURI. LATEST IR SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A RAPID INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THOUGH OVER THE
LOWER MIDWEST...AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AFFECTING CENTRAL
INDIANA LATE TONIGHT. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO FORECASTED
START TIME OF 3AM EST TUESDAY.  UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA
VERY LATE TONIGHT...LIKELY JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THE EARLY
MORNING RUSH. POOR TIMING OBVIOUSLY AS THERMAL PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF PERHAPS A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX NORTHEAST...A
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX CENTRAL...AND MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN
SOUTHWEST INITIALLY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE NAM/SREF A BIT WARMER AND A BIT
FASTER WITH THE OVERALL TRANSITION THAN THE GFS AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...BUT BETWEEN WETBULB EFFECTS INITIALLY AND THE PRESENCE
OF A DEEP EXPANSIVE SNOWPACK...AM SKEPTICAL OF THE WARMER SIDE OF
THE SOLUTIONS AND WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE COOLER SOLUTIONS EARLY
ON.

AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK OF A 60+ KT
LOW LEVEL JET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z...SAVE FOR
PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING...FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH THIS TRANSITION OCCURRING IN THE INDY METRO
AROUND THE 16Z OR 11 AM EST TIME FRAME.

SREF PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS PROGRESSION IF
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE FORECAST GRIDS OWING TO THE THERMAL
DIFFERENCES ARTICULATED EARLIER.

WILL REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET AS LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL RUN THE
ADVISORY FROM 08Z THROUGH 17Z OR 3 AM THROUGH 12 PM EST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. LIKELY WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF THIS EARLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL MAKE THIS SIMPLER WITH A ONE SEGMENT
PRODUCT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

FOCUS THEN TRANSITIONS TO RAINFALL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND INTO
KENTUCKY BUT BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN NORTH...HALF INCH CENTRAL...AND UP TO AN
INCH SOUTH...COMBINED WITH FROZEN GROUND...WHICH WILL EFFICIENTLY
CONVERT RAINFALL TO RUNOFF...AND A MELTING SNOWPACK WHICH LIKELY
CONTAINS ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT...MAY RESULT IN A FLOOD THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH ONLY SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RESULTANT COLD ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE THINGS TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AND FINALLY ALL SNOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME...MAYBE UP TO HALF AN INCH IN THE SOUTH.

GUIDANCE...EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH NAM...KEEP
THE BULK OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE RIVER AND
INTO KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE NORTH.
WILL CARRY LIKELIES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING
TO CHANCES AT BEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...HAVE AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS OF ROUGHLY 1-4 ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON
THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGE. LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. SMALL
CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE ON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WERE ACCEPTED WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THUS LITTLE
TO NO DIURNAL WARMING ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QFP WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

RADAR INDICATES SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY BEGIN
AFFECTING THE KIND TERMINAL WITHIN AN HOUR. PRECIPITATION DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE RESTRICTING VISIBILITY TOO MUCH...AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNRISE. LOWER MVFR CEILINGS STILL WELL BACK INTO SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS...SO CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN 040-050 UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

A 60-65 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST
LATER THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR UNTIL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. DROPPING TO MVFR AROUND 10Z THIS
MORNING WITH A WINTRY MIX OF -FZRAPL. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN AND FINALLY BY AROUND NOON JUST RAIN FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE BY LATE
MORNING...AND THIS WILL HANG ON FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...UNTIL POSSIBLY AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR.

LOOK FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND AS
STATED ABOVE...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET BEGINNING
AROUND 09Z-11Z THIS MORNING. LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AS WE TREND TOWARDS IFR BY LATE MORNING...12-14Z. MODELS
INDICATE WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION BY MIDDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL RAIN..HOWEVER GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
WILL NOT IMPROVE FROM THE IFR...POSSIBLY SOME LIFR(?) FLIGHT
CATEGORY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 030829
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
327 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING FROM THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD FROM JUST PRIOR TO THE
TUESDAY MORNING RUSH THROUGH LATE MORNING WILL FEATURE THE THREAT
FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA AND RESULTS IN ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER
TO A MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW.

THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FOR A TIME TO OUR
SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL BE COLD AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 934 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATE...
RADAR IS CURRENTLY QUIET OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. ALL PRECIP SO
FAR IS LOCATED OVER KANSAS AND MISSOURI. LATEST IR SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A RAPID INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THOUGH OVER THE
LOWER MIDWEST...AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AFFECTING CENTRAL
INDIANA LATE TONIGHT. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO FORECASTED
START TIME OF 3AM EST TUESDAY.  UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA
VERY LATE TONIGHT...LIKELY JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THE EARLY
MORNING RUSH. POOR TIMING OBVIOUSLY AS THERMAL PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF PERHAPS A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX NORTHEAST...A
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX CENTRAL...AND MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN
SOUTHWEST INITIALLY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE NAM/SREF A BIT WARMER AND A BIT
FASTER WITH THE OVERALL TRANSITION THAN THE GFS AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...BUT BETWEEN WETBULB EFFECTS INITIALLY AND THE PRESENCE
OF A DEEP EXPANSIVE SNOWPACK...AM SKEPTICAL OF THE WARMER SIDE OF
THE SOLUTIONS AND WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE COOLER SOLUTIONS EARLY
ON.

AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK OF A 60+ KT
LOW LEVEL JET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z...SAVE FOR
PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING...FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH THIS TRANSITION OCCURRING IN THE INDY METRO
AROUND THE 16Z OR 11 AM EST TIME FRAME.

SREF PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS PROGRESSION IF
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE FORECAST GRIDS OWING TO THE THERMAL
DIFFERENCES ARTICULATED EARLIER.

WILL REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET AS LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL RUN THE
ADVISORY FROM 08Z THROUGH 17Z OR 3 AM THROUGH 12 PM EST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. LIKELY WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF THIS EARLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL MAKE THIS SIMPLER WITH A ONE SEGMENT
PRODUCT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

FOCUS THEN TRANSITIONS TO RAINFALL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND INTO
KENTUCKY BUT BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN NORTH...HALF INCH CENTRAL...AND UP TO AN
INCH SOUTH...COMBINED WITH FROZEN GROUND...WHICH WILL EFFICIENTLY
CONVERT RAINFALL TO RUNOFF...AND A MELTING SNOWPACK WHICH LIKELY
CONTAINS ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT...MAY RESULT IN A FLOOD THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH ONLY SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RESULTANT COLD ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE THINGS TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AND FINALLY ALL SNOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME...MAYBE UP TO HALF AN INCH IN THE SOUTH.

GUIDANCE...EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH NAM...KEEP
THE BULK OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE RIVER AND
INTO KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE NORTH.
WILL CARRY LIKELIES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING
TO CHANCES AT BEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...HAVE AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS OF ROUGHLY 1-4 ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON
THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGE. LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. SMALL
CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE ON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WERE ACCEPTED WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THUS LITTLE
TO NO DIURNAL WARMING ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QFP WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

RADAR INDICATES SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY BEGIN
AFFECTING THE KIND TERMINAL WITHIN AN HOUR. PRECIPITATION DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE RESTRICTING VISIBILITY TOO MUCH...AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNRISE. LOWER MVFR CEILINGS STILL WELL BACK INTO SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS...SO CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN 040-050 UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

A 60-65 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST
LATER THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR UNTIL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. DROPPING TO MVFR AROUND 10Z THIS
MORNING WITH A WINTRY MIX OF -FZRAPL. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN AND FINALLY BY AROUND NOON JUST RAIN FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE BY LATE
MORNING...AND THIS WILL HANG ON FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...UNTIL POSSIBLY AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR.

LOOK FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND AS
STATED ABOVE...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET BEGINNING
AROUND 09Z-11Z THIS MORNING. LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AS WE TREND TOWARDS IFR BY LATE MORNING...12-14Z. MODELS
INDICATE WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION BY MIDDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL RAIN..HOWEVER GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
WILL NOT IMPROVE FROM THE IFR...POSSIBLY SOME LIFR(?) FLIGHT
CATEGORY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 030729
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
229 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING FROM THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD FROM JUST PRIOR TO THE
TUESDAY MORNING RUSH THROUGH LATE MORNING WILL FEATURE THE THREAT
FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA AND RESULTS IN ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER
TO A MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW.

THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FOR A TIME TO OUR
SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL BE COLD AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 934 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATE...
RADAR IS CURRERENTLY QUIET OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. ALL PRECIP SO
FAR IS LOCATED OVER KANSAS AND MISSOURI. LATEST IR SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A RAPID INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THOUGH OVER THE
LOWER MIDWEST...AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AFFECTING CENTRAL
INDIANA LATE TONIGHT. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO FORECASTED
START TIME OF 3AM EST TUESDAY.  UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA
VERY LATE TONIGHT...LIKELY JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THE EARLY
MORNING RUSH. POOR TIMING OBVIOUSLY AS THERMAL PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF PERHAPS A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX NORTHEAST...A
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX CENTRAL...AND MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN
SOUTHWEST INITIALLY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE NAM/SREF A BIT WARMER AND A BIT
FASTER WITH THE OVERALL TRANSITION THAN THE GFS AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...BUT BETWEEN WETBULB EFFECTS INITIALLY AND THE PRESENCE
OF A DEEP EXPANSIVE SNOWPACK...AM SKEPTICAL OF THE WARMER SIDE OF
THE SOLUTIONS AND WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE COOLER SOLUTIONS EARLY
ON.

AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK OF A 60+ KT
LOW LEVEL JET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z...SAVE FOR
PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING...FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH THIS TRANSITION OCCURRING IN THE INDY METRO
AROUND THE 16Z OR 11 AM EST TIME FRAME.

SREF PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS PROGRESSION IF
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE FORECAST GRIDS OWING TO THE THERMAL
DIFFERENCES ARTICULATED EARLIER.

WILL REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET AS LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL RUN THE
ADVISORY FROM 08Z THROUGH 17Z OR 3 AM THROUGH 12 PM EST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. LIKELY WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF THIS EARLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL MAKE THIS SIMPLER WITH A ONE SEGMENT
PRODUCT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

FOCUS THEN TRANSITIONS TO RAINFALL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND INTO
KENTUCKY BUT BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN NORTH...HALF INCH CENTRAL...AND UP TO AN
INCH SOUTH...COMBINED WITH FROZEN GROUND...WHICH WILL EFFICIENTLY
CONVERT RAINFALL TO RUNOFF...AND A MELTING SNOWPACK WHICH LIKELY
CONTAINS ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT...MAY RESULT IN A FLOOD THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH ONLY SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RESULTANT COLD ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE THINGS TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AND FINALLY ALL SNOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME...MAYBE UP TO HALF AN INCH IN THE SOUTH.

GUIDANCE...EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH NAM...KEEP
THE BULK OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE RIVER AND
INTO KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE NORTH.
WILL CARRY LIKELIES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING
TO CHANCES AT BEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...HAVE AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS OF ROUGHLY 1-4 ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON
THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGE. LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. SMALL
CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE ON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WERE ACCEPTED WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THUS LITTLE
TO NO DIURNAL WARMING ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QFP WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

VFR UNTIL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. DROPPING TO MVFR AROUND 10Z THIS
MORNING WITH A WINTRY MIX OF -FZRAPL. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN AND FINALLY BY AROUND NOON JUST RAIN FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE BY LATE
MORNING...AND THIS WILL HANG ON FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...UNTIL POSSIBLY AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR.

LOOK FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND AS
STATED ABOVE...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET BEGINNING
AROUND 09Z-11Z THIS MORNING. LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AS WE TREND TOWARDS IFR BY LATE MORNING...12-14Z. MODELS
INDICATE WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION BY MIDDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL RAIN..HOWEVER GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
WILL NOT IMPROVE FROM THE IFR...POSSIBLY SOME LIFR(?) FLIGHT
CATEGORY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 030729
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
229 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING FROM THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD FROM JUST PRIOR TO THE
TUESDAY MORNING RUSH THROUGH LATE MORNING WILL FEATURE THE THREAT
FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA AND RESULTS IN ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER
TO A MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW.

THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FOR A TIME TO OUR
SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL BE COLD AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 934 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATE...
RADAR IS CURRERENTLY QUIET OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. ALL PRECIP SO
FAR IS LOCATED OVER KANSAS AND MISSOURI. LATEST IR SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A RAPID INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THOUGH OVER THE
LOWER MIDWEST...AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AFFECTING CENTRAL
INDIANA LATE TONIGHT. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO FORECASTED
START TIME OF 3AM EST TUESDAY.  UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA
VERY LATE TONIGHT...LIKELY JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THE EARLY
MORNING RUSH. POOR TIMING OBVIOUSLY AS THERMAL PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF PERHAPS A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX NORTHEAST...A
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX CENTRAL...AND MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN
SOUTHWEST INITIALLY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE NAM/SREF A BIT WARMER AND A BIT
FASTER WITH THE OVERALL TRANSITION THAN THE GFS AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...BUT BETWEEN WETBULB EFFECTS INITIALLY AND THE PRESENCE
OF A DEEP EXPANSIVE SNOWPACK...AM SKEPTICAL OF THE WARMER SIDE OF
THE SOLUTIONS AND WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE COOLER SOLUTIONS EARLY
ON.

AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK OF A 60+ KT
LOW LEVEL JET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z...SAVE FOR
PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING...FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH THIS TRANSITION OCCURRING IN THE INDY METRO
AROUND THE 16Z OR 11 AM EST TIME FRAME.

SREF PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS PROGRESSION IF
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE FORECAST GRIDS OWING TO THE THERMAL
DIFFERENCES ARTICULATED EARLIER.

WILL REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET AS LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL RUN THE
ADVISORY FROM 08Z THROUGH 17Z OR 3 AM THROUGH 12 PM EST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. LIKELY WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF THIS EARLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL MAKE THIS SIMPLER WITH A ONE SEGMENT
PRODUCT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

FOCUS THEN TRANSITIONS TO RAINFALL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND INTO
KENTUCKY BUT BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN NORTH...HALF INCH CENTRAL...AND UP TO AN
INCH SOUTH...COMBINED WITH FROZEN GROUND...WHICH WILL EFFICIENTLY
CONVERT RAINFALL TO RUNOFF...AND A MELTING SNOWPACK WHICH LIKELY
CONTAINS ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT...MAY RESULT IN A FLOOD THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH ONLY SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RESULTANT COLD ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE THINGS TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AND FINALLY ALL SNOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME...MAYBE UP TO HALF AN INCH IN THE SOUTH.

GUIDANCE...EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH NAM...KEEP
THE BULK OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE RIVER AND
INTO KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE NORTH.
WILL CARRY LIKELIES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING
TO CHANCES AT BEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...HAVE AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS OF ROUGHLY 1-4 ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON
THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGE. LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. SMALL
CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE ON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WERE ACCEPTED WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THUS LITTLE
TO NO DIURNAL WARMING ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QFP WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

VFR UNTIL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. DROPPING TO MVFR AROUND 10Z THIS
MORNING WITH A WINTRY MIX OF -FZRAPL. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN AND FINALLY BY AROUND NOON JUST RAIN FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE BY LATE
MORNING...AND THIS WILL HANG ON FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...UNTIL POSSIBLY AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR.

LOOK FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND AS
STATED ABOVE...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET BEGINNING
AROUND 09Z-11Z THIS MORNING. LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AS WE TREND TOWARDS IFR BY LATE MORNING...12-14Z. MODELS
INDICATE WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION BY MIDDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL RAIN..HOWEVER GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
WILL NOT IMPROVE FROM THE IFR...POSSIBLY SOME LIFR(?) FLIGHT
CATEGORY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 030729
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
229 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING FROM THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD FROM JUST PRIOR TO THE
TUESDAY MORNING RUSH THROUGH LATE MORNING WILL FEATURE THE THREAT
FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA AND RESULTS IN ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER
TO A MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW.

THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FOR A TIME TO OUR
SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL BE COLD AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 934 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATE...
RADAR IS CURRERENTLY QUIET OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. ALL PRECIP SO
FAR IS LOCATED OVER KANSAS AND MISSOURI. LATEST IR SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A RAPID INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THOUGH OVER THE
LOWER MIDWEST...AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AFFECTING CENTRAL
INDIANA LATE TONIGHT. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO FORECASTED
START TIME OF 3AM EST TUESDAY.  UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA
VERY LATE TONIGHT...LIKELY JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THE EARLY
MORNING RUSH. POOR TIMING OBVIOUSLY AS THERMAL PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF PERHAPS A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX NORTHEAST...A
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX CENTRAL...AND MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN
SOUTHWEST INITIALLY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE NAM/SREF A BIT WARMER AND A BIT
FASTER WITH THE OVERALL TRANSITION THAN THE GFS AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...BUT BETWEEN WETBULB EFFECTS INITIALLY AND THE PRESENCE
OF A DEEP EXPANSIVE SNOWPACK...AM SKEPTICAL OF THE WARMER SIDE OF
THE SOLUTIONS AND WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE COOLER SOLUTIONS EARLY
ON.

AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK OF A 60+ KT
LOW LEVEL JET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z...SAVE FOR
PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING...FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH THIS TRANSITION OCCURRING IN THE INDY METRO
AROUND THE 16Z OR 11 AM EST TIME FRAME.

SREF PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS PROGRESSION IF
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE FORECAST GRIDS OWING TO THE THERMAL
DIFFERENCES ARTICULATED EARLIER.

WILL REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET AS LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL RUN THE
ADVISORY FROM 08Z THROUGH 17Z OR 3 AM THROUGH 12 PM EST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. LIKELY WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF THIS EARLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL MAKE THIS SIMPLER WITH A ONE SEGMENT
PRODUCT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

FOCUS THEN TRANSITIONS TO RAINFALL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND INTO
KENTUCKY BUT BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN NORTH...HALF INCH CENTRAL...AND UP TO AN
INCH SOUTH...COMBINED WITH FROZEN GROUND...WHICH WILL EFFICIENTLY
CONVERT RAINFALL TO RUNOFF...AND A MELTING SNOWPACK WHICH LIKELY
CONTAINS ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT...MAY RESULT IN A FLOOD THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH ONLY SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RESULTANT COLD ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE THINGS TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AND FINALLY ALL SNOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME...MAYBE UP TO HALF AN INCH IN THE SOUTH.

GUIDANCE...EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH NAM...KEEP
THE BULK OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE RIVER AND
INTO KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE NORTH.
WILL CARRY LIKELIES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING
TO CHANCES AT BEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...HAVE AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS OF ROUGHLY 1-4 ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON
THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGE. LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. SMALL
CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE ON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WERE ACCEPTED WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THUS LITTLE
TO NO DIURNAL WARMING ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QFP WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

VFR UNTIL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. DROPPING TO MVFR AROUND 10Z THIS
MORNING WITH A WINTRY MIX OF -FZRAPL. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN AND FINALLY BY AROUND NOON JUST RAIN FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE BY LATE
MORNING...AND THIS WILL HANG ON FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...UNTIL POSSIBLY AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR.

LOOK FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND AS
STATED ABOVE...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET BEGINNING
AROUND 09Z-11Z THIS MORNING. LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AS WE TREND TOWARDS IFR BY LATE MORNING...12-14Z. MODELS
INDICATE WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION BY MIDDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL RAIN..HOWEVER GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
WILL NOT IMPROVE FROM THE IFR...POSSIBLY SOME LIFR(?) FLIGHT
CATEGORY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 030729
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
229 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING FROM THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD FROM JUST PRIOR TO THE
TUESDAY MORNING RUSH THROUGH LATE MORNING WILL FEATURE THE THREAT
FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA AND RESULTS IN ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER
TO A MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW.

THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FOR A TIME TO OUR
SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL BE COLD AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 934 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATE...
RADAR IS CURRERENTLY QUIET OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. ALL PRECIP SO
FAR IS LOCATED OVER KANSAS AND MISSOURI. LATEST IR SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A RAPID INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THOUGH OVER THE
LOWER MIDWEST...AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AFFECTING CENTRAL
INDIANA LATE TONIGHT. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO FORECASTED
START TIME OF 3AM EST TUESDAY.  UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA
VERY LATE TONIGHT...LIKELY JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THE EARLY
MORNING RUSH. POOR TIMING OBVIOUSLY AS THERMAL PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF PERHAPS A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX NORTHEAST...A
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX CENTRAL...AND MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN
SOUTHWEST INITIALLY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE NAM/SREF A BIT WARMER AND A BIT
FASTER WITH THE OVERALL TRANSITION THAN THE GFS AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...BUT BETWEEN WETBULB EFFECTS INITIALLY AND THE PRESENCE
OF A DEEP EXPANSIVE SNOWPACK...AM SKEPTICAL OF THE WARMER SIDE OF
THE SOLUTIONS AND WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE COOLER SOLUTIONS EARLY
ON.

AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK OF A 60+ KT
LOW LEVEL JET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z...SAVE FOR
PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING...FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH THIS TRANSITION OCCURRING IN THE INDY METRO
AROUND THE 16Z OR 11 AM EST TIME FRAME.

SREF PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS PROGRESSION IF
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE FORECAST GRIDS OWING TO THE THERMAL
DIFFERENCES ARTICULATED EARLIER.

WILL REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET AS LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL RUN THE
ADVISORY FROM 08Z THROUGH 17Z OR 3 AM THROUGH 12 PM EST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. LIKELY WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF THIS EARLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL MAKE THIS SIMPLER WITH A ONE SEGMENT
PRODUCT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

FOCUS THEN TRANSITIONS TO RAINFALL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND INTO
KENTUCKY BUT BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN NORTH...HALF INCH CENTRAL...AND UP TO AN
INCH SOUTH...COMBINED WITH FROZEN GROUND...WHICH WILL EFFICIENTLY
CONVERT RAINFALL TO RUNOFF...AND A MELTING SNOWPACK WHICH LIKELY
CONTAINS ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT...MAY RESULT IN A FLOOD THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH ONLY SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RESULTANT COLD ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE THINGS TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AND FINALLY ALL SNOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME...MAYBE UP TO HALF AN INCH IN THE SOUTH.

GUIDANCE...EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH NAM...KEEP
THE BULK OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE RIVER AND
INTO KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE NORTH.
WILL CARRY LIKELIES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING
TO CHANCES AT BEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...HAVE AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS OF ROUGHLY 1-4 ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON
THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGE. LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. SMALL
CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE ON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WERE ACCEPTED WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THUS LITTLE
TO NO DIURNAL WARMING ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE LONG WAVE
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. MEAN TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ONE AROUND SATURDAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE VERY LIGHT QFP WITH
EACH OF THESE FEATURES...SUGGESTING MINOR CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

VFR UNTIL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. DROPPING TO MVFR AROUND 10Z THIS
MORNING WITH A WINTRY MIX OF -FZRAPL. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN AND FINALLY BY AROUND NOON JUST RAIN FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE BY LATE
MORNING...AND THIS WILL HANG ON FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...UNTIL POSSIBLY AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR.

LOOK FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND AS
STATED ABOVE...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET BEGINNING
AROUND 09Z-11Z THIS MORNING. LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AS WE TREND TOWARDS IFR BY LATE MORNING...12-14Z. MODELS
INDICATE WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION BY MIDDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL RAIN..HOWEVER GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
WILL NOT IMPROVE FROM THE IFR...POSSIBLY SOME LIFR(?) FLIGHT
CATEGORY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 030511
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1208 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING FROM THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD FROM JUST PRIOR TO THE
TUESDAY MORNING RUSH THROUGH LATE MORNING WILL FEATURE THE THREAT
FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA AND RESULTS IN ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER
TO A MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW.

THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FOR A TIME TO OUR
SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL BE COLD AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 934 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATE...
RADAR IS CURRERENTLY QUIET OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. ALL PRECIP SO
FAR IS LOCATED OVER KANSAS AND MISSOURI. LATEST IR SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A RAPID INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THOUGH OVER THE
LOWER MIDWEST...AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AFFECTING CENTRAL
INDIANA LATE TONIGHT. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO FORECASTED
START TIME OF 3AM EST TUESDAY.  UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA
VERY LATE TONIGHT...LIKELY JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THE EARLY
MORNING RUSH. POOR TIMING OBVIOUSLY AS THERMAL PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF PERHAPS A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX NORTHEAST...A
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX CENTRAL...AND MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN
SOUTHWEST INITIALLY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE NAM/SREF A BIT WARMER AND A BIT
FASTER WITH THE OVERALL TRANSITION THAN THE GFS AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...BUT BETWEEN WETBULB EFFECTS INITIALLY AND THE PRESENCE
OF A DEEP EXPANSIVE SNOWPACK...AM SKEPTICAL OF THE WARMER SIDE OF
THE SOLUTIONS AND WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE COOLER SOLUTIONS EARLY
ON.

AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK OF A 60+ KT
LOW LEVEL JET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z...SAVE FOR
PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING...FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH THIS TRANSITION OCCURRING IN THE INDY METRO
AROUND THE 16Z OR 11 AM EST TIME FRAME.

SREF PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS PROGRESSION IF
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE FORECAST GRIDS OWING TO THE THERMAL
DIFFERENCES ARTICULATED EARLIER.

WILL REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET AS LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL RUN THE
ADVISORY FROM 08Z THROUGH 17Z OR 3 AM THROUGH 12 PM EST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. LIKELY WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF THIS EARLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL MAKE THIS SIMPLER WITH A ONE SEGMENT
PRODUCT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

FOCUS THEN TRANSITIONS TO RAINFALL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND INTO
KENTUCKY BUT BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN NORTH...HALF INCH CENTRAL...AND UP TO AN
INCH SOUTH...COMBINED WITH FROZEN GROUND...WHICH WILL EFFICIENTLY
CONVERT RAINFALL TO RUNOFF...AND A MELTING SNOWPACK WHICH LIKELY
CONTAINS ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT...MAY RESULT IN A FLOOD THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH ONLY SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RESULTANT COLD ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE THINGS TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AND FINALLY ALL SNOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME...MAYBE UP TO HALF AN INCH IN THE SOUTH.

GUIDANCE...EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH NAM...KEEP
THE BULK OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE RIVER AND
INTO KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE NORTH.
WILL CARRY LIKELIES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING
TO CHANCES AT BEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...HAVE AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS OF ROUGHLY 1-4 ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON
THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGE. LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. SMALL
CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE ON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WERE ACCEPTED WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THUS LITTLE
TO NO DIURNAL WARMING ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE LONG TERM. THE MAIN
ISSUES WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION.  SOME MODELS
INDICATE VERY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE NEW
EURO IS DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY GIVE LOW CHANCES
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES THEN. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS COLD
AS -17 CELSIUS ON THURSDAY AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO REST OF
THE LONG TERM.   EXPECT HIGHS FROM 15 TO 20 THURSDAY AND NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO SOME AREAS FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
OTHER PERIODS.   IN MOST CASES MODEL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE. BUT THEY MAY BE A TAD LOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS MODELS
INDICATE GOOD WARM ADVECTION. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

VFR UNTIL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. DROPPING TO MVFR AROUND 10Z THIS
MORNING WITH A WINTRY MIX OF -FZRAPL. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN AND FINALLY BY AROUND NOON JUST RAIN FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE BY LATE
MORNING...AND THIS WILL HANG ON FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...UNTIL POSSIBLY AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR.

LOOK FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND AS
STATED ABOVE...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET BEGINNING
AROUND 09Z-11Z THIS MORNING. LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AS WE TREND TOWARDS IFR BY LATE MORNING...12-14Z. MODELS
INDICATE WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION BY MIDDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL RAIN..HOWEVER GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
WILL NOT IMPROVE FROM THE IFR...POSSIBLY SOME LIFR(?) FLIGHT
CATEGORY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 030511
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1208 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING FROM THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD FROM JUST PRIOR TO THE
TUESDAY MORNING RUSH THROUGH LATE MORNING WILL FEATURE THE THREAT
FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA AND RESULTS IN ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER
TO A MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW.

THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FOR A TIME TO OUR
SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL BE COLD AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 934 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATE...
RADAR IS CURRERENTLY QUIET OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. ALL PRECIP SO
FAR IS LOCATED OVER KANSAS AND MISSOURI. LATEST IR SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A RAPID INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THOUGH OVER THE
LOWER MIDWEST...AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AFFECTING CENTRAL
INDIANA LATE TONIGHT. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO FORECASTED
START TIME OF 3AM EST TUESDAY.  UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA
VERY LATE TONIGHT...LIKELY JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THE EARLY
MORNING RUSH. POOR TIMING OBVIOUSLY AS THERMAL PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF PERHAPS A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX NORTHEAST...A
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX CENTRAL...AND MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN
SOUTHWEST INITIALLY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE NAM/SREF A BIT WARMER AND A BIT
FASTER WITH THE OVERALL TRANSITION THAN THE GFS AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...BUT BETWEEN WETBULB EFFECTS INITIALLY AND THE PRESENCE
OF A DEEP EXPANSIVE SNOWPACK...AM SKEPTICAL OF THE WARMER SIDE OF
THE SOLUTIONS AND WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE COOLER SOLUTIONS EARLY
ON.

AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK OF A 60+ KT
LOW LEVEL JET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z...SAVE FOR
PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING...FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH THIS TRANSITION OCCURRING IN THE INDY METRO
AROUND THE 16Z OR 11 AM EST TIME FRAME.

SREF PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS PROGRESSION IF
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE FORECAST GRIDS OWING TO THE THERMAL
DIFFERENCES ARTICULATED EARLIER.

WILL REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET AS LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL RUN THE
ADVISORY FROM 08Z THROUGH 17Z OR 3 AM THROUGH 12 PM EST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. LIKELY WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF THIS EARLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL MAKE THIS SIMPLER WITH A ONE SEGMENT
PRODUCT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

FOCUS THEN TRANSITIONS TO RAINFALL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND INTO
KENTUCKY BUT BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN NORTH...HALF INCH CENTRAL...AND UP TO AN
INCH SOUTH...COMBINED WITH FROZEN GROUND...WHICH WILL EFFICIENTLY
CONVERT RAINFALL TO RUNOFF...AND A MELTING SNOWPACK WHICH LIKELY
CONTAINS ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT...MAY RESULT IN A FLOOD THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH ONLY SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RESULTANT COLD ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE THINGS TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AND FINALLY ALL SNOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME...MAYBE UP TO HALF AN INCH IN THE SOUTH.

GUIDANCE...EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH NAM...KEEP
THE BULK OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE RIVER AND
INTO KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE NORTH.
WILL CARRY LIKELIES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING
TO CHANCES AT BEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...HAVE AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS OF ROUGHLY 1-4 ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON
THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGE. LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. SMALL
CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE ON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WERE ACCEPTED WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THUS LITTLE
TO NO DIURNAL WARMING ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE LONG TERM. THE MAIN
ISSUES WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION.  SOME MODELS
INDICATE VERY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE NEW
EURO IS DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY GIVE LOW CHANCES
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES THEN. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS COLD
AS -17 CELSIUS ON THURSDAY AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO REST OF
THE LONG TERM.   EXPECT HIGHS FROM 15 TO 20 THURSDAY AND NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO SOME AREAS FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
OTHER PERIODS.   IN MOST CASES MODEL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE. BUT THEY MAY BE A TAD LOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS MODELS
INDICATE GOOD WARM ADVECTION. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

VFR UNTIL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. DROPPING TO MVFR AROUND 10Z THIS
MORNING WITH A WINTRY MIX OF -FZRAPL. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN AND FINALLY BY AROUND NOON JUST RAIN FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE BY LATE
MORNING...AND THIS WILL HANG ON FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...UNTIL POSSIBLY AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR.

LOOK FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND AS
STATED ABOVE...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET BEGINNING
AROUND 09Z-11Z THIS MORNING. LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AS WE TREND TOWARDS IFR BY LATE MORNING...12-14Z. MODELS
INDICATE WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION BY MIDDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL RAIN..HOWEVER GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
WILL NOT IMPROVE FROM THE IFR...POSSIBLY SOME LIFR(?) FLIGHT
CATEGORY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 030511
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1208 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING FROM THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD FROM JUST PRIOR TO THE
TUESDAY MORNING RUSH THROUGH LATE MORNING WILL FEATURE THE THREAT
FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA AND RESULTS IN ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER
TO A MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW.

THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FOR A TIME TO OUR
SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL BE COLD AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 934 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATE...
RADAR IS CURRERENTLY QUIET OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. ALL PRECIP SO
FAR IS LOCATED OVER KANSAS AND MISSOURI. LATEST IR SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A RAPID INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THOUGH OVER THE
LOWER MIDWEST...AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AFFECTING CENTRAL
INDIANA LATE TONIGHT. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO FORECASTED
START TIME OF 3AM EST TUESDAY.  UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA
VERY LATE TONIGHT...LIKELY JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THE EARLY
MORNING RUSH. POOR TIMING OBVIOUSLY AS THERMAL PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF PERHAPS A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX NORTHEAST...A
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX CENTRAL...AND MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN
SOUTHWEST INITIALLY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE NAM/SREF A BIT WARMER AND A BIT
FASTER WITH THE OVERALL TRANSITION THAN THE GFS AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...BUT BETWEEN WETBULB EFFECTS INITIALLY AND THE PRESENCE
OF A DEEP EXPANSIVE SNOWPACK...AM SKEPTICAL OF THE WARMER SIDE OF
THE SOLUTIONS AND WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE COOLER SOLUTIONS EARLY
ON.

AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK OF A 60+ KT
LOW LEVEL JET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z...SAVE FOR
PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING...FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH THIS TRANSITION OCCURRING IN THE INDY METRO
AROUND THE 16Z OR 11 AM EST TIME FRAME.

SREF PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS PROGRESSION IF
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE FORECAST GRIDS OWING TO THE THERMAL
DIFFERENCES ARTICULATED EARLIER.

WILL REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET AS LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL RUN THE
ADVISORY FROM 08Z THROUGH 17Z OR 3 AM THROUGH 12 PM EST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. LIKELY WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF THIS EARLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL MAKE THIS SIMPLER WITH A ONE SEGMENT
PRODUCT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

FOCUS THEN TRANSITIONS TO RAINFALL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND INTO
KENTUCKY BUT BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN NORTH...HALF INCH CENTRAL...AND UP TO AN
INCH SOUTH...COMBINED WITH FROZEN GROUND...WHICH WILL EFFICIENTLY
CONVERT RAINFALL TO RUNOFF...AND A MELTING SNOWPACK WHICH LIKELY
CONTAINS ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT...MAY RESULT IN A FLOOD THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH ONLY SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RESULTANT COLD ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE THINGS TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AND FINALLY ALL SNOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME...MAYBE UP TO HALF AN INCH IN THE SOUTH.

GUIDANCE...EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH NAM...KEEP
THE BULK OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE RIVER AND
INTO KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE NORTH.
WILL CARRY LIKELIES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING
TO CHANCES AT BEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...HAVE AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS OF ROUGHLY 1-4 ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON
THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGE. LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. SMALL
CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE ON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WERE ACCEPTED WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THUS LITTLE
TO NO DIURNAL WARMING ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE LONG TERM. THE MAIN
ISSUES WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION.  SOME MODELS
INDICATE VERY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE NEW
EURO IS DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY GIVE LOW CHANCES
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES THEN. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS COLD
AS -17 CELSIUS ON THURSDAY AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO REST OF
THE LONG TERM.   EXPECT HIGHS FROM 15 TO 20 THURSDAY AND NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO SOME AREAS FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
OTHER PERIODS.   IN MOST CASES MODEL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE. BUT THEY MAY BE A TAD LOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS MODELS
INDICATE GOOD WARM ADVECTION. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

VFR UNTIL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. DROPPING TO MVFR AROUND 10Z THIS
MORNING WITH A WINTRY MIX OF -FZRAPL. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN AND FINALLY BY AROUND NOON JUST RAIN FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE BY LATE
MORNING...AND THIS WILL HANG ON FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...UNTIL POSSIBLY AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR.

LOOK FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND AS
STATED ABOVE...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET BEGINNING
AROUND 09Z-11Z THIS MORNING. LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AS WE TREND TOWARDS IFR BY LATE MORNING...12-14Z. MODELS
INDICATE WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION BY MIDDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL RAIN..HOWEVER GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
WILL NOT IMPROVE FROM THE IFR...POSSIBLY SOME LIFR(?) FLIGHT
CATEGORY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 030511
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1208 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING FROM THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD FROM JUST PRIOR TO THE
TUESDAY MORNING RUSH THROUGH LATE MORNING WILL FEATURE THE THREAT
FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA AND RESULTS IN ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER
TO A MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW.

THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FOR A TIME TO OUR
SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL BE COLD AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 934 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATE...
RADAR IS CURRERENTLY QUIET OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. ALL PRECIP SO
FAR IS LOCATED OVER KANSAS AND MISSOURI. LATEST IR SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A RAPID INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THOUGH OVER THE
LOWER MIDWEST...AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AFFECTING CENTRAL
INDIANA LATE TONIGHT. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO FORECASTED
START TIME OF 3AM EST TUESDAY.  UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA
VERY LATE TONIGHT...LIKELY JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THE EARLY
MORNING RUSH. POOR TIMING OBVIOUSLY AS THERMAL PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF PERHAPS A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX NORTHEAST...A
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX CENTRAL...AND MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN
SOUTHWEST INITIALLY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE NAM/SREF A BIT WARMER AND A BIT
FASTER WITH THE OVERALL TRANSITION THAN THE GFS AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...BUT BETWEEN WETBULB EFFECTS INITIALLY AND THE PRESENCE
OF A DEEP EXPANSIVE SNOWPACK...AM SKEPTICAL OF THE WARMER SIDE OF
THE SOLUTIONS AND WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE COOLER SOLUTIONS EARLY
ON.

AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK OF A 60+ KT
LOW LEVEL JET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z...SAVE FOR
PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING...FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH THIS TRANSITION OCCURRING IN THE INDY METRO
AROUND THE 16Z OR 11 AM EST TIME FRAME.

SREF PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS PROGRESSION IF
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE FORECAST GRIDS OWING TO THE THERMAL
DIFFERENCES ARTICULATED EARLIER.

WILL REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET AS LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL RUN THE
ADVISORY FROM 08Z THROUGH 17Z OR 3 AM THROUGH 12 PM EST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. LIKELY WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF THIS EARLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL MAKE THIS SIMPLER WITH A ONE SEGMENT
PRODUCT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

FOCUS THEN TRANSITIONS TO RAINFALL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND INTO
KENTUCKY BUT BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN NORTH...HALF INCH CENTRAL...AND UP TO AN
INCH SOUTH...COMBINED WITH FROZEN GROUND...WHICH WILL EFFICIENTLY
CONVERT RAINFALL TO RUNOFF...AND A MELTING SNOWPACK WHICH LIKELY
CONTAINS ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT...MAY RESULT IN A FLOOD THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH ONLY SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RESULTANT COLD ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE THINGS TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AND FINALLY ALL SNOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME...MAYBE UP TO HALF AN INCH IN THE SOUTH.

GUIDANCE...EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH NAM...KEEP
THE BULK OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE RIVER AND
INTO KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE NORTH.
WILL CARRY LIKELIES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING
TO CHANCES AT BEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...HAVE AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS OF ROUGHLY 1-4 ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON
THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGE. LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. SMALL
CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE ON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WERE ACCEPTED WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THUS LITTLE
TO NO DIURNAL WARMING ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE LONG TERM. THE MAIN
ISSUES WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION.  SOME MODELS
INDICATE VERY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE NEW
EURO IS DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY GIVE LOW CHANCES
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES THEN. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS COLD
AS -17 CELSIUS ON THURSDAY AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO REST OF
THE LONG TERM.   EXPECT HIGHS FROM 15 TO 20 THURSDAY AND NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO SOME AREAS FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
OTHER PERIODS.   IN MOST CASES MODEL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE. BUT THEY MAY BE A TAD LOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS MODELS
INDICATE GOOD WARM ADVECTION. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

VFR UNTIL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. DROPPING TO MVFR AROUND 10Z THIS
MORNING WITH A WINTRY MIX OF -FZRAPL. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN AND FINALLY BY AROUND NOON JUST RAIN FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE BY LATE
MORNING...AND THIS WILL HANG ON FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...UNTIL POSSIBLY AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR.

LOOK FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND AS
STATED ABOVE...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET BEGINNING
AROUND 09Z-11Z THIS MORNING. LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AS WE TREND TOWARDS IFR BY LATE MORNING...12-14Z. MODELS
INDICATE WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION BY MIDDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL RAIN..HOWEVER GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
WILL NOT IMPROVE FROM THE IFR...POSSIBLY SOME LIFR(?) FLIGHT
CATEGORY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 030250
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
950 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING FROM THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD FROM JUST PRIOR TO THE
TUESDAY MORNING RUSH THROUGH LATE MORNING WILL FEATURE THE THREAT
FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA AND RESULTS IN ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER
TO A MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW.

THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FOR A TIME TO OUR
SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL BE COLD AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 934 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATE...
RADAR IS CURRERENTLY QUIET OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. ALL PRECIP SO
FAR IS LOCATED OVER KANSAS AND MISSOURI. LATEST IR SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A RAPID INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THOUGH OVER THE
LOWER MIDWEST...AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AFFECTING CENTRAL
INDIANA LATE TONIGHT. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO FORECASTED
START TIME OF 3AM EST TUESDAY.  UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA
VERY LATE TONIGHT...LIKELY JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THE EARLY
MORNING RUSH. POOR TIMING OBVIOUSLY AS THERMAL PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF PERHAPS A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX NORTHEAST...A
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX CENTRAL...AND MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN
SOUTHWEST INITIALLY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE NAM/SREF A BIT WARMER AND A BIT
FASTER WITH THE OVERALL TRANSITION THAN THE GFS AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...BUT BETWEEN WETBULB EFFECTS INITIALLY AND THE PRESENCE
OF A DEEP EXPANSIVE SNOWPACK...AM SKEPTICAL OF THE WARMER SIDE OF
THE SOLUTIONS AND WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE COOLER SOLUTIONS EARLY
ON.

AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK OF A 60+ KT
LOW LEVEL JET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z...SAVE FOR
PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING...FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH THIS TRANSITION OCCURRING IN THE INDY METRO
AROUND THE 16Z OR 11 AM EST TIME FRAME.

SREF PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS PROGRESSION IF
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE FORECAST GRIDS OWING TO THE THERMAL
DIFFERENCES ARTICULATED EARLIER.

WILL REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET AS LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL RUN THE
ADVISORY FROM 08Z THROUGH 17Z OR 3 AM THROUGH 12 PM EST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. LIKELY WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF THIS EARLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL MAKE THIS SIMPLER WITH A ONE SEGMENT
PRODUCT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

FOCUS THEN TRANSITIONS TO RAINFALL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND INTO
KENTUCKY BUT BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN NORTH...HALF INCH CENTRAL...AND UP TO AN
INCH SOUTH...COMBINED WITH FROZEN GROUND...WHICH WILL EFFICIENTLY
CONVERT RAINFALL TO RUNOFF...AND A MELTING SNOWPACK WHICH LIKELY
CONTAINS ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT...MAY RESULT IN A FLOOD THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH ONLY SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RESULTANT COLD ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE THINGS TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AND FINALLY ALL SNOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME...MAYBE UP TO HALF AN INCH IN THE SOUTH.

GUIDANCE...EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH NAM...KEEP
THE BULK OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE RIVER AND
INTO KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE NORTH.
WILL CARRY LIKELIES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING
TO CHANCES AT BEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...HAVE AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS OF ROUGHLY 1-4 ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON
THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGE. LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. SMALL
CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE ON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WERE ACCEPTED WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THUS LITTLE
TO NO DIURNAL WARMING ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE LONG TERM. THE MAIN
ISSUES WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION.  SOME MODELS
INDICATE VERY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE NEW
EURO IS DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY GIVE LOW CHANCES
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES THEN. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS COLD
AS -17 CELSIUS ON THURSDAY AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO REST OF
THE LONG TERM.   EXPECT HIGHS FROM 15 TO 20 THURSDAY AND NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO SOME AREAS FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
OTHER PERIODS.   IN MOST CASES MODEL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE. BUT THEY MAY BE A TAD LOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS MODELS
INDICATE GOOD WARM ADVECTION. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 030000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 923 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

0220Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MVFR AROUND 10Z WITH A WINTRY
MIX OF -FZRAPL...TURNING TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN BY AROUND NOON
JUST RAIN FOR ALL THE TERMINALS AND IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
COMMENCE BY LATE MORNING...AND THIS WILL HANG ON FOR THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOK FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS TONIGHT AND FREEZING RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME SLEET BEGINNING AROUND 09Z-11Z TUESDAY. LOWERING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS WE
TREND TOWARDS IFR BY LATE MORNING. MODELS INDICATE WARMER AIR WILL
SPREAD INTO OUR REGION BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME ALL RAIN.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 030250
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
950 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING FROM THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD FROM JUST PRIOR TO THE
TUESDAY MORNING RUSH THROUGH LATE MORNING WILL FEATURE THE THREAT
FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA AND RESULTS IN ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER
TO A MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW.

THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FOR A TIME TO OUR
SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL BE COLD AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 934 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATE...
RADAR IS CURRERENTLY QUIET OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. ALL PRECIP SO
FAR IS LOCATED OVER KANSAS AND MISSOURI. LATEST IR SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A RAPID INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THOUGH OVER THE
LOWER MIDWEST...AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AFFECTING CENTRAL
INDIANA LATE TONIGHT. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO FORECASTED
START TIME OF 3AM EST TUESDAY.  UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA
VERY LATE TONIGHT...LIKELY JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THE EARLY
MORNING RUSH. POOR TIMING OBVIOUSLY AS THERMAL PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF PERHAPS A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX NORTHEAST...A
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX CENTRAL...AND MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN
SOUTHWEST INITIALLY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE NAM/SREF A BIT WARMER AND A BIT
FASTER WITH THE OVERALL TRANSITION THAN THE GFS AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...BUT BETWEEN WETBULB EFFECTS INITIALLY AND THE PRESENCE
OF A DEEP EXPANSIVE SNOWPACK...AM SKEPTICAL OF THE WARMER SIDE OF
THE SOLUTIONS AND WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE COOLER SOLUTIONS EARLY
ON.

AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK OF A 60+ KT
LOW LEVEL JET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z...SAVE FOR
PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING...FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH THIS TRANSITION OCCURRING IN THE INDY METRO
AROUND THE 16Z OR 11 AM EST TIME FRAME.

SREF PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS PROGRESSION IF
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE FORECAST GRIDS OWING TO THE THERMAL
DIFFERENCES ARTICULATED EARLIER.

WILL REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET AS LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL RUN THE
ADVISORY FROM 08Z THROUGH 17Z OR 3 AM THROUGH 12 PM EST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. LIKELY WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF THIS EARLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL MAKE THIS SIMPLER WITH A ONE SEGMENT
PRODUCT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

FOCUS THEN TRANSITIONS TO RAINFALL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND INTO
KENTUCKY BUT BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN NORTH...HALF INCH CENTRAL...AND UP TO AN
INCH SOUTH...COMBINED WITH FROZEN GROUND...WHICH WILL EFFICIENTLY
CONVERT RAINFALL TO RUNOFF...AND A MELTING SNOWPACK WHICH LIKELY
CONTAINS ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT...MAY RESULT IN A FLOOD THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH ONLY SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RESULTANT COLD ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE THINGS TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AND FINALLY ALL SNOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME...MAYBE UP TO HALF AN INCH IN THE SOUTH.

GUIDANCE...EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH NAM...KEEP
THE BULK OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE RIVER AND
INTO KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE NORTH.
WILL CARRY LIKELIES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING
TO CHANCES AT BEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...HAVE AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS OF ROUGHLY 1-4 ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON
THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGE. LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. SMALL
CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE ON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WERE ACCEPTED WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THUS LITTLE
TO NO DIURNAL WARMING ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE LONG TERM. THE MAIN
ISSUES WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION.  SOME MODELS
INDICATE VERY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE NEW
EURO IS DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY GIVE LOW CHANCES
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES THEN. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS COLD
AS -17 CELSIUS ON THURSDAY AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO REST OF
THE LONG TERM.   EXPECT HIGHS FROM 15 TO 20 THURSDAY AND NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO SOME AREAS FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
OTHER PERIODS.   IN MOST CASES MODEL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE. BUT THEY MAY BE A TAD LOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS MODELS
INDICATE GOOD WARM ADVECTION. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 030000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 923 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

0220Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MVFR AROUND 10Z WITH A WINTRY
MIX OF -FZRAPL...TURNING TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN BY AROUND NOON
JUST RAIN FOR ALL THE TERMINALS AND IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
COMMENCE BY LATE MORNING...AND THIS WILL HANG ON FOR THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOK FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS TONIGHT AND FREEZING RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME SLEET BEGINNING AROUND 09Z-11Z TUESDAY. LOWERING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS WE
TREND TOWARDS IFR BY LATE MORNING. MODELS INDICATE WARMER AIR WILL
SPREAD INTO OUR REGION BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME ALL RAIN.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 030224
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
924 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING FROM THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD FROM JUST PRIOR TO THE
TUESDAY MORNING RUSH THROUGH LATE MORNING WILL FEATURE THE THREAT
FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA AND RESULTS IN ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER
TO A MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW.

THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FOR A TIME TO OUR
SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL BE COLD AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION OVERSPREAD THE AREA
VERY LATE TONIGHT...LIKELY JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THE EARLY
MORNING RUSH. POOR TIMING OBVIOUSLY AS THERMAL PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF PERHAPS A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX NORTHEAST...A
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX CENTRAL...AND MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN
SOUTHWEST INITIALLY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE NAM/SREF A BIT WARMER AND A BIT
FASTER WITH THE OVERALL TRANSITION THAN THE GFS AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...BUT BETWEEN WETBULB EFFECTS INITIALLY AND THE PRESENCE
OF A DEEP EXPANSIVE SNOWPACK...AM SKEPTICAL OF THE WARMER SIDE OF
THE SOLUTIONS AND WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE COOLER SOLUTIONS EARLY
ON.

AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK OF A 60+ KT
LOW LEVEL JET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z...SAVE FOR
PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING...FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH THIS TRANSITION OCCURRING IN THE INDY METRO
AROUND THE 16Z OR 11 AM EST TIME FRAME.

SREF PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS PROGRESSION IF
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE FORECAST GRIDS OWING TO THE THERMAL
DIFFERENCES ARTICULATED EARLIER.

WILL REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET AS LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL RUN THE
ADVISORY FROM 08Z THROUGH 17Z OR 3 AM THROUGH 12 PM EST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. LIKELY WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF THIS EARLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL MAKE THIS SIMPLER WITH A ONE SEGMENT
PRODUCT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

FOCUS THEN TRANSITIONS TO RAINFALL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND INTO
KENTUCKY BUT BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN NORTH...HALF INCH CENTRAL...AND UP TO AN
INCH SOUTH...COMBINED WITH FROZEN GROUND...WHICH WILL EFFICIENTLY
CONVERT RAINFALL TO RUNOFF...AND A MELTING SNOWPACK WHICH LIKELY
CONTAINS ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT...MAY RESULT IN A FLOOD THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH ONLY SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RESULTANT COLD ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE THINGS TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AND FINALLY ALL SNOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME...MAYBE UP TO HALF AN INCH IN THE SOUTH.

GUIDANCE...EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH NAM...KEEP
THE BULK OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE RIVER AND
INTO KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE NORTH.
WILL CARRY LIKELIES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING
TO CHANCES AT BEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...HAVE AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS OF ROUGHLY 1-4 ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON
THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGE. LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. SMALL
CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE ON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WERE ACCEPTED WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THUS LITTLE
TO NO DIURNAL WARMING ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE LONG TERM. THE MAIN
ISSUES WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION.  SOME MODELS
INDICATE VERY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE NEW
EURO IS DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY GIVE LOW CHANCES
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES THEN. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS COLD
AS -17 CELSIUS ON THURSDAY AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO REST OF
THE LONG TERM.   EXPECT HIGHS FROM 15 TO 20 THURSDAY AND NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO SOME AREAS FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
OTHER PERIODS.   IN MOST CASES MODEL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE. BUT THEY MAY BE A TAD LOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS MODELS
INDICATE GOOD WARM ADVECTION. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 030000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 923 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

0220Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MVFR AROUND 10Z WITH A WINTRY
MIX OF -FZRAPL...TURNING TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN BY AROUND NOON
JUST RAIN FOR ALL THE TERMINALS AND IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
COMMENCE BY LATE MORNING...AND THIS WILL HANG ON FOR THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOK FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS TONIGHT AND FREEZING RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME SLEET BEGINNING AROUND 09Z-11Z TUESDAY. LOWERING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS WE
TREND TOWARDS IFR BY LATE MORNING. MODELS INDICATE WARMER AIR WILL
SPREAD INTO OUR REGION BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME ALL RAIN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 022311
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
611 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING FROM THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD FROM JUST PRIOR TO THE
TUESDAY MORNING RUSH THROUGH LATE MORNING WILL FEATURE THE THREAT
FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA AND RESULTS IN ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER
TO A MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW.

THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FOR A TIME TO OUR
SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL BE COLD AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION OVERSPREAD THE AREA
VERY LATE TONIGHT...LIKELY JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THE EARLY
MORNING RUSH. POOR TIMING OBVIOUSLY AS THERMAL PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF PERHAPS A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX NORTHEAST...A
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX CENTRAL...AND MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN
SOUTHWEST INITIALLY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE NAM/SREF A BIT WARMER AND A BIT
FASTER WITH THE OVERALL TRANSITION THAN THE GFS AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...BUT BETWEEN WETBULB EFFECTS INITIALLY AND THE PRESENCE
OF A DEEP EXPANSIVE SNOWPACK...AM SKEPTICAL OF THE WARMER SIDE OF
THE SOLUTIONS AND WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE COOLER SOLUTIONS EARLY
ON.

AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK OF A 60+ KT
LOW LEVEL JET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z...SAVE FOR
PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING...FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH THIS TRANSITION OCCURRING IN THE INDY METRO
AROUND THE 16Z OR 11 AM EST TIME FRAME.

SREF PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS PROGRESSION IF
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE FORECAST GRIDS OWING TO THE THERMAL
DIFFERENCES ARTICULATED EARLIER.

WILL REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET AS LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL RUN THE
ADVISORY FROM 08Z THROUGH 17Z OR 3 AM THROUGH 12 PM EST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. LIKELY WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF THIS EARLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL MAKE THIS SIMPLER WITH A ONE SEGMENT
PRODUCT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

FOCUS THEN TRANSITIONS TO RAINFALL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND INTO
KENTUCKY BUT BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN NORTH...HALF INCH CENTRAL...AND UP TO AN
INCH SOUTH...COMBINED WITH FROZEN GROUND...WHICH WILL EFFICIENTLY
CONVERT RAINFALL TO RUNOFF...AND A MELTING SNOWPACK WHICH LIKELY
CONTAINS ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT...MAY RESULT IN A FLOOD THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH ONLY SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RESULTANT COLD ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE THINGS TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AND FINALLY ALL SNOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME...MAYBE UP TO HALF AN INCH IN THE SOUTH.

GUIDANCE...EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH NAM...KEEP
THE BULK OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE RIVER AND
INTO KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE NORTH.
WILL CARRY LIKELIES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING
TO CHANCES AT BEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...HAVE AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS OF ROUGHLY 1-4 ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON
THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGE. LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. SMALL
CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE ON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WERE ACCEPTED WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THUS LITTLE
TO NO DIURNAL WARMING ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE LONG TERM. THE MAIN
ISSUES WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION.  SOME MODELS
INDICATE VERY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE NEW
EURO IS DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY GIVE LOW CHANCES
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES THEN. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS COLD
AS -17 CELSIUS ON THURSDAY AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO REST OF
THE LONG TERM.   EXPECT HIGHS FROM 15 TO 20 THURSDAY AND NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO SOME AREAS FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
OTHER PERIODS.   IN MOST CASES MODEL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE. BUT THEY MAY BE A TAD LOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS MODELS
INDICATE GOOD WARM ADVECTION. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 030000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 607 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MVFR AROUND 10Z WITH A WINTRY
MIX OF -FZRAPL...TURNING TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN BY AROUND NOON
JUST RAIN FOR ALL THE TERMINALS AND IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
COMMENCE BY LATE MORNING...AND THIS WILL HANG ON FOR THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOK FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS TONIGHT AND FREEZING RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME SLEET BEGINNING AROUND 09Z-11Z TUESDAY. LOWERING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS WE
TREND TOWARDS IFR BY LATE MORNING. MODELS INDICATE WARMER AIR WILL
SPREAD INTO OUR REGION BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME ALL RAIN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 022311
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
611 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING FROM THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD FROM JUST PRIOR TO THE
TUESDAY MORNING RUSH THROUGH LATE MORNING WILL FEATURE THE THREAT
FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA AND RESULTS IN ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER
TO A MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW.

THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FOR A TIME TO OUR
SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL BE COLD AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION OVERSPREAD THE AREA
VERY LATE TONIGHT...LIKELY JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THE EARLY
MORNING RUSH. POOR TIMING OBVIOUSLY AS THERMAL PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF PERHAPS A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX NORTHEAST...A
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX CENTRAL...AND MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN
SOUTHWEST INITIALLY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE NAM/SREF A BIT WARMER AND A BIT
FASTER WITH THE OVERALL TRANSITION THAN THE GFS AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...BUT BETWEEN WETBULB EFFECTS INITIALLY AND THE PRESENCE
OF A DEEP EXPANSIVE SNOWPACK...AM SKEPTICAL OF THE WARMER SIDE OF
THE SOLUTIONS AND WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE COOLER SOLUTIONS EARLY
ON.

AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK OF A 60+ KT
LOW LEVEL JET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z...SAVE FOR
PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING...FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH THIS TRANSITION OCCURRING IN THE INDY METRO
AROUND THE 16Z OR 11 AM EST TIME FRAME.

SREF PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS PROGRESSION IF
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE FORECAST GRIDS OWING TO THE THERMAL
DIFFERENCES ARTICULATED EARLIER.

WILL REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET AS LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL RUN THE
ADVISORY FROM 08Z THROUGH 17Z OR 3 AM THROUGH 12 PM EST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. LIKELY WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF THIS EARLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL MAKE THIS SIMPLER WITH A ONE SEGMENT
PRODUCT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

FOCUS THEN TRANSITIONS TO RAINFALL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND INTO
KENTUCKY BUT BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN NORTH...HALF INCH CENTRAL...AND UP TO AN
INCH SOUTH...COMBINED WITH FROZEN GROUND...WHICH WILL EFFICIENTLY
CONVERT RAINFALL TO RUNOFF...AND A MELTING SNOWPACK WHICH LIKELY
CONTAINS ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT...MAY RESULT IN A FLOOD THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH ONLY SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RESULTANT COLD ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE THINGS TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AND FINALLY ALL SNOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME...MAYBE UP TO HALF AN INCH IN THE SOUTH.

GUIDANCE...EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH NAM...KEEP
THE BULK OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE RIVER AND
INTO KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE NORTH.
WILL CARRY LIKELIES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING
TO CHANCES AT BEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...HAVE AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS OF ROUGHLY 1-4 ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON
THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGE. LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. SMALL
CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE ON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WERE ACCEPTED WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THUS LITTLE
TO NO DIURNAL WARMING ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE LONG TERM. THE MAIN
ISSUES WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION.  SOME MODELS
INDICATE VERY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE NEW
EURO IS DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY GIVE LOW CHANCES
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES THEN. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS COLD
AS -17 CELSIUS ON THURSDAY AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO REST OF
THE LONG TERM.   EXPECT HIGHS FROM 15 TO 20 THURSDAY AND NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO SOME AREAS FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
OTHER PERIODS.   IN MOST CASES MODEL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE. BUT THEY MAY BE A TAD LOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS MODELS
INDICATE GOOD WARM ADVECTION. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 030000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 607 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MVFR AROUND 10Z WITH A WINTRY
MIX OF -FZRAPL...TURNING TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN BY AROUND NOON
JUST RAIN FOR ALL THE TERMINALS AND IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
COMMENCE BY LATE MORNING...AND THIS WILL HANG ON FOR THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOK FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS TONIGHT AND FREEZING RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME SLEET BEGINNING AROUND 09Z-11Z TUESDAY. LOWERING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS WE
TREND TOWARDS IFR BY LATE MORNING. MODELS INDICATE WARMER AIR WILL
SPREAD INTO OUR REGION BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME ALL RAIN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 022311
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
611 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING FROM THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD FROM JUST PRIOR TO THE
TUESDAY MORNING RUSH THROUGH LATE MORNING WILL FEATURE THE THREAT
FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA AND RESULTS IN ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER
TO A MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW.

THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FOR A TIME TO OUR
SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL BE COLD AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION OVERSPREAD THE AREA
VERY LATE TONIGHT...LIKELY JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THE EARLY
MORNING RUSH. POOR TIMING OBVIOUSLY AS THERMAL PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF PERHAPS A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX NORTHEAST...A
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX CENTRAL...AND MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN
SOUTHWEST INITIALLY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE NAM/SREF A BIT WARMER AND A BIT
FASTER WITH THE OVERALL TRANSITION THAN THE GFS AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...BUT BETWEEN WETBULB EFFECTS INITIALLY AND THE PRESENCE
OF A DEEP EXPANSIVE SNOWPACK...AM SKEPTICAL OF THE WARMER SIDE OF
THE SOLUTIONS AND WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE COOLER SOLUTIONS EARLY
ON.

AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK OF A 60+ KT
LOW LEVEL JET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z...SAVE FOR
PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING...FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH THIS TRANSITION OCCURRING IN THE INDY METRO
AROUND THE 16Z OR 11 AM EST TIME FRAME.

SREF PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS PROGRESSION IF
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE FORECAST GRIDS OWING TO THE THERMAL
DIFFERENCES ARTICULATED EARLIER.

WILL REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET AS LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL RUN THE
ADVISORY FROM 08Z THROUGH 17Z OR 3 AM THROUGH 12 PM EST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. LIKELY WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF THIS EARLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL MAKE THIS SIMPLER WITH A ONE SEGMENT
PRODUCT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

FOCUS THEN TRANSITIONS TO RAINFALL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND INTO
KENTUCKY BUT BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN NORTH...HALF INCH CENTRAL...AND UP TO AN
INCH SOUTH...COMBINED WITH FROZEN GROUND...WHICH WILL EFFICIENTLY
CONVERT RAINFALL TO RUNOFF...AND A MELTING SNOWPACK WHICH LIKELY
CONTAINS ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT...MAY RESULT IN A FLOOD THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...REMAINING SNOW AND ICE MAY CLOG STREET
DRAINS AND RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH ONLY SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RESULTANT COLD ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE THINGS TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AND FINALLY ALL SNOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME...MAYBE UP TO HALF AN INCH IN THE SOUTH.

GUIDANCE...EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH NAM...KEEP
THE BULK OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE RIVER AND
INTO KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE NORTH.
WILL CARRY LIKELIES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING
TO CHANCES AT BEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...HAVE AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS OF ROUGHLY 1-4 ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON
THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGE. LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. SMALL
CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE ON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WERE ACCEPTED WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THUS LITTLE
TO NO DIURNAL WARMING ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE LONG TERM. THE MAIN
ISSUES WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION.  SOME MODELS
INDICATE VERY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE NEW
EURO IS DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY GIVE LOW CHANCES
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES THEN. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS COLD
AS -17 CELSIUS ON THURSDAY AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO REST OF
THE LONG TERM.   EXPECT HIGHS FROM 15 TO 20 THURSDAY AND NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO SOME AREAS FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
OTHER PERIODS.   IN MOST CASES MODEL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE. BUT THEY MAY BE A TAD LOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS MODELS
INDICATE GOOD WARM ADVECTION. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 030000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 607 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MVFR AROUND 10Z WITH A WINTRY
MIX OF -FZRAPL...TURNING TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN BY AROUND NOON
JUST RAIN FOR ALL THE TERMINALS AND IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
COMMENCE BY LATE MORNING...AND THIS WILL HANG ON FOR THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOK FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS TONIGHT AND FREEZING RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME SLEET BEGINNING AROUND 09Z-11Z TUESDAY. LOWERING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS WE
TREND TOWARDS IFR BY LATE MORNING. MODELS INDICATE WARMER AIR WILL
SPREAD INTO OUR REGION BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME ALL RAIN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...SMF

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