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000
FXUS63 KIND 021400
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1000 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A FRONT COMBINED WITH UPPER WAVES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BELOW AVERAGE BY MID WEEK AS UPPER
FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 953 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE FOR A WAVE MOVING AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF TONIGHT. REALLY DID NOT NEED TO
STRAY FAR FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST AND ONLY NEEDED TO MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT CONDITIONS BASED ON TRENDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY.
SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING CONVECTION INTO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER
DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE FEEL THAT THIS IS OVERDONE.

THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST TODAY. WITH SUNSHINE TODAY
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE NICELY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOCUS REMAINS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. 850MB WINDS INCREASE
AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL FORCING AND MOISTURE. CURRENT TIMING PUTS
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER 06Z.

WILL KEEP THE EVENING DRY AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS
OVERNIGHT. BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA...SO WILL GO WITH HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS THERE WITH
LOWER POPS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. WILL KEEP THE FAR SOUTH DRY BASED
ON THE EXPECTED TIMING.

FRONT WILL STILL BE CROSSING THE AREA ON MONDAY. WITH THE DIURNAL
TREND OF POPS BEING LOWEST IN THE MORNING...WILL GO ONLY LOW POPS IN
THE EAST. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH WHILE ENDING THEM ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTH. KEPT THE POPS LOW BECAUSE OVERALL FORCING WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF THE 850MB JET.

KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH MONDAY EVENING...BUT THEN IT
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE SAGGED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GO DRY
OVERNIGHT. SOME CONCERN ABOUT SOME CONVECTION SNEAKING BACK NORTH BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK...BUT CANNOT
REALLY ARGUE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS OF A DRY FORECAST THEN.

AS THE FRONT RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT BROUGHT POPS BACK NORTH ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESIDE OVER QUEBEC FOR DURATION
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE...WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT
LOW...PERIODICALLY TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. LATEST REGIONAL INITIALIZATION IS TRENDING TOWARD
LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SINCE THE SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THAT
PRECIPITATION IS SHOWING SOME ENHANCED FORCING...WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

A MUCH WEAKER WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...BUT DYNAMICS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE...SO CHANCE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE. AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW PUSHES
FARTHER EAST AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 728 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ENTIRE TAF PERIOD DESPITE
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AT KLAF AND KIND LATE IN TAF PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
FRONT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT KHUF AND KBMG TO BE AFFECTED. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 8 TO 12 KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 021400
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1000 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A FRONT COMBINED WITH UPPER WAVES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BELOW AVERAGE BY MID WEEK AS UPPER
FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 953 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE FOR A WAVE MOVING AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF TONIGHT. REALLY DID NOT NEED TO
STRAY FAR FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST AND ONLY NEEDED TO MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT CONDITIONS BASED ON TRENDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY.
SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING CONVECTION INTO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER
DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE FEEL THAT THIS IS OVERDONE.

THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST TODAY. WITH SUNSHINE TODAY
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE NICELY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOCUS REMAINS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. 850MB WINDS INCREASE
AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL FORCING AND MOISTURE. CURRENT TIMING PUTS
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER 06Z.

WILL KEEP THE EVENING DRY AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS
OVERNIGHT. BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA...SO WILL GO WITH HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS THERE WITH
LOWER POPS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. WILL KEEP THE FAR SOUTH DRY BASED
ON THE EXPECTED TIMING.

FRONT WILL STILL BE CROSSING THE AREA ON MONDAY. WITH THE DIURNAL
TREND OF POPS BEING LOWEST IN THE MORNING...WILL GO ONLY LOW POPS IN
THE EAST. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH WHILE ENDING THEM ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTH. KEPT THE POPS LOW BECAUSE OVERALL FORCING WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF THE 850MB JET.

KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH MONDAY EVENING...BUT THEN IT
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE SAGGED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GO DRY
OVERNIGHT. SOME CONCERN ABOUT SOME CONVECTION SNEAKING BACK NORTH BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK...BUT CANNOT
REALLY ARGUE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS OF A DRY FORECAST THEN.

AS THE FRONT RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT BROUGHT POPS BACK NORTH ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESIDE OVER QUEBEC FOR DURATION
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE...WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT
LOW...PERIODICALLY TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. LATEST REGIONAL INITIALIZATION IS TRENDING TOWARD
LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SINCE THE SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THAT
PRECIPITATION IS SHOWING SOME ENHANCED FORCING...WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

A MUCH WEAKER WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...BUT DYNAMICS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE...SO CHANCE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE. AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW PUSHES
FARTHER EAST AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 728 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ENTIRE TAF PERIOD DESPITE
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AT KLAF AND KIND LATE IN TAF PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
FRONT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT KHUF AND KBMG TO BE AFFECTED. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 8 TO 12 KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD




000
FXUS63 KIND 021138
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
738 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A FRONT COMBINED WITH UPPER WAVES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BELOW AVERAGE BY MID WEEK AS UPPER
FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY.
SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING CONVECTION INTO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER
DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE FEEL THAT THIS IS OVERDONE.

THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST TODAY. WITH SUNSHINE TODAY
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE NICELY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOCUS REMAINS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. 850MB WINDS INCREASE
AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL FORCING AND MOISTURE. CURRENT TIMING PUTS
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER 06Z.

WILL KEEP THE EVENING DRY AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS
OVERNIGHT. BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA...SO WILL GO WITH HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS THERE WITH
LOWER POPS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. WILL KEEP THE FAR SOUTH DRY BASED
ON THE EXPECTED TIMING.

FRONT WILL STILL BE CROSSING THE AREA ON MONDAY. WITH THE DIURNAL
TREND OF POPS BEING LOWEST IN THE MORNING...WILL GO ONLY LOW POPS IN
THE EAST. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH WHILE ENDING THEM ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTH. KEPT THE POPS LOW BECAUSE OVERALL FORCING WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF THE 850MB JET.

KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH MONDAY EVENING...BUT THEN IT
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE SAGGED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GO DRY
OVERNIGHT. SOME CONCERN ABOUT SOME CONVECTION SNEAKING BACK NORTH BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK...BUT CANNOT
REALLY ARGUE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS OF A DRY FORECAST THEN.

AS THE FRONT RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT BROUGHT POPS BACK NORTH ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESIDE OVER QUEBEC FOR DURATION
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE...WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT
LOW...PERIODICALLY TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. LATEST REGIONAL INITIALIZATION IS TRENDING TOWARD
LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SINCE THE SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THAT
PRECIPITATION IS SHOWING SOME ENHANCED FORCING...WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

A MUCH WEAKER WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...BUT DYNAMICS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE...SO CHANCE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE. AS AFORMENTIONED UPPER LOW PUSHES
FARTHER EAST AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 728 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ENTIRE TAF PERIOD DESPITE
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AT KLAF AND KIND LATE IN TAF PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
FRONT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT KHUF AND KBMG TO BE AFFECTED. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 8 TO 12 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 020822 AAA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
422 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A FRONT COMBINED WITH UPPER WAVES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BELOW AVERAGE BY MID WEEK AS UPPER
FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY.
SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING CONVECTION INTO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER
DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE FEEL THAT THIS IS OVERDONE.

THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST TODAY. WITH SUNSHINE TODAY
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE NICELY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOCUS REMAINS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. 850MB WINDS INCREASE
AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL FORCING AND MOISTURE. CURRENT TIMING PUTS
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER 06Z.

WILL KEEP THE EVENING DRY AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS
OVERNIGHT. BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA...SO WILL GO WITH HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS THERE WITH
LOWER POPS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. WILL KEEP THE FAR SOUTH DRY BASED
ON THE EXPECTED TIMING.

FRONT WILL STILL BE CROSSING THE AREA ON MONDAY. WITH THE DIURNAL
TREND OF POPS BEING LOWEST IN THE MORNING...WILL GO ONLY LOW POPS IN
THE EAST. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH WHILE ENDING THEM ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTH. KEPT THE POPS LOW BECAUSE OVERALL FORCING WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF THE 850MB JET.

KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH MONDAY EVENING...BUT THEN IT
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE SAGGED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GO DRY
OVERNIGHT. SOME CONCERN ABOUT SOME CONVECTION SNEAKING BACK NORTH BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK...BUT CANNOT
REALLY ARGUE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS OF A DRY FORECAST THEN.

AS THE FRONT RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT BROUGHT POPS BACK NORTH ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESIDE OVER QUEBEC FOR DURATION
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE...WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT
LOW...PERIODICALLY TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. LATEST REGIONAL INITIALIZATION IS TRENDING TOWARD
LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SINCE THE SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THAT
PRECIPITATION IS SHOWING SOME ENHANCED FORCING...WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

A MUCH WEAKER WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...BUT DYNAMICS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE...SO CHANCE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE. AS AFORMENTIONED UPPER LOW PUSHES
FARTHER EAST AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SITES OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THEY WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT 8-14 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WITH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ALREADY DOWN TO 2 AT KBMG AND WINDS DROPPING TO CALM
THERE AND AT KHUF THINK A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR FOG AT THE
OUTLYING SITES IS WORTH MENTIONING IN A TEMPO GROUP. TIME HEIGHTS
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCATTERED CU SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 5
KFT. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND COULD BRING THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO KLAF.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP/TDUD




000
FXUS63 KIND 020822 AAA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
422 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A FRONT COMBINED WITH UPPER WAVES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BELOW AVERAGE BY MID WEEK AS UPPER
FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY.
SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING CONVECTION INTO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER
DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE FEEL THAT THIS IS OVERDONE.

THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST TODAY. WITH SUNSHINE TODAY
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE NICELY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOCUS REMAINS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. 850MB WINDS INCREASE
AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL FORCING AND MOISTURE. CURRENT TIMING PUTS
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER 06Z.

WILL KEEP THE EVENING DRY AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS
OVERNIGHT. BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA...SO WILL GO WITH HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS THERE WITH
LOWER POPS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. WILL KEEP THE FAR SOUTH DRY BASED
ON THE EXPECTED TIMING.

FRONT WILL STILL BE CROSSING THE AREA ON MONDAY. WITH THE DIURNAL
TREND OF POPS BEING LOWEST IN THE MORNING...WILL GO ONLY LOW POPS IN
THE EAST. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH WHILE ENDING THEM ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTH. KEPT THE POPS LOW BECAUSE OVERALL FORCING WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF THE 850MB JET.

KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH MONDAY EVENING...BUT THEN IT
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE SAGGED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GO DRY
OVERNIGHT. SOME CONCERN ABOUT SOME CONVECTION SNEAKING BACK NORTH BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK...BUT CANNOT
REALLY ARGUE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS OF A DRY FORECAST THEN.

AS THE FRONT RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT BROUGHT POPS BACK NORTH ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESIDE OVER QUEBEC FOR DURATION
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE...WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT
LOW...PERIODICALLY TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. LATEST REGIONAL INITIALIZATION IS TRENDING TOWARD
LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SINCE THE SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THAT
PRECIPITATION IS SHOWING SOME ENHANCED FORCING...WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

A MUCH WEAKER WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...BUT DYNAMICS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE...SO CHANCE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE. AS AFORMENTIONED UPPER LOW PUSHES
FARTHER EAST AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SITES OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THEY WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT 8-14 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WITH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ALREADY DOWN TO 2 AT KBMG AND WINDS DROPPING TO CALM
THERE AND AT KHUF THINK A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR FOG AT THE
OUTLYING SITES IS WORTH MENTIONING IN A TEMPO GROUP. TIME HEIGHTS
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCATTERED CU SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 5
KFT. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND COULD BRING THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO KLAF.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP/TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 020753
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
353 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A FRONT COMBINED WITH UPPER WAVES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BELOW AVERAGE BY MID WEEK AS UPPER
FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY.
SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING CONVECTION INTO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER
DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE FEEL THAT THIS IS OVERDONE.

THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST TODAY. WITH SUNSHINE TODAY
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE NICELY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOCUS REMAINS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. 850MB WINDS INCREASE
AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL FORCING AND MOISTURE. CURRENT TIMING PUTS
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER 06Z.

WILL KEEP THE EVENING DRY AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS
OVERNIGHT. BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA...SO WILL GO WITH HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS THERE WITH
LOWER POPS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. WILL KEEP THE FAR SOUTH DRY BASED
ON THE EXPECTED TIMING.

FRONT WILL STILL BE CROSSING THE AREA ON MONDAY. WITH THE DIURNAL
TREND OF POPS BEING LOWEST IN THE MORNING...WILL GO ONLY LOW POPS IN
THE EAST. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH WHILE ENDING THEM ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTH. KEPT THE POPS LOW BECAUSE OVERALL FORCING WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF THE 850MB JET.

KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH MONDAY EVENING...BUT THEN IT
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE SAGGED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GO DRY
OVERNIGHT. SOME CONCERN ABOUT SOME CONVECTION SNEAKING BACK NORTH BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK...BUT CANNOT
REALLY ARGUE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS OF A DRY FORECAST THEN.

AS THE FRONT RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT BROUGHT POPS BACK NORTH ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESIDE OVER QUEBEC FOR DURATION
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE...WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT
LOW...PERIODICALLY TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. LATEST REGIONAL INITIALIZATION IS TRENDING TOWARD
LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SINCE THE SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THAT
PRECIPITATION IS SHOWING SOME ENHANCED FORCING...WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

A MUCH WEAKER WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...BUT DYNAMICS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE...SO CHANCE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE. AS AFORMENTIONED UPPER LOW PUSHES
FARTHER EAST AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1234 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SITES OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THEY WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT 8-14 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WITH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ALREADY DOWN TO 2 AT KBMG AND WINDS DROPPING TO CALM
THERE AND AT KHUF THINK A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR FOG AT THE
OUTLYING SITES IS WORTH MENTIONING IN A TEMPO GROUP. TIME HEIGHTS
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCATTERED CU SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 5
KFT. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND COULD BRING THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO KLAF.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 020753
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
353 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A FRONT COMBINED WITH UPPER WAVES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BELOW AVERAGE BY MID WEEK AS UPPER
FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY.
SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING CONVECTION INTO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER
DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE FEEL THAT THIS IS OVERDONE.

THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST TODAY. WITH SUNSHINE TODAY
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE NICELY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOCUS REMAINS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. 850MB WINDS INCREASE
AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL FORCING AND MOISTURE. CURRENT TIMING PUTS
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER 06Z.

WILL KEEP THE EVENING DRY AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS
OVERNIGHT. BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA...SO WILL GO WITH HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS THERE WITH
LOWER POPS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. WILL KEEP THE FAR SOUTH DRY BASED
ON THE EXPECTED TIMING.

FRONT WILL STILL BE CROSSING THE AREA ON MONDAY. WITH THE DIURNAL
TREND OF POPS BEING LOWEST IN THE MORNING...WILL GO ONLY LOW POPS IN
THE EAST. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH WHILE ENDING THEM ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTH. KEPT THE POPS LOW BECAUSE OVERALL FORCING WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF THE 850MB JET.

KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH MONDAY EVENING...BUT THEN IT
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE SAGGED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GO DRY
OVERNIGHT. SOME CONCERN ABOUT SOME CONVECTION SNEAKING BACK NORTH BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK...BUT CANNOT
REALLY ARGUE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS OF A DRY FORECAST THEN.

AS THE FRONT RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT BROUGHT POPS BACK NORTH ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESIDE OVER QUEBEC FOR DURATION
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE...WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT
LOW...PERIODICALLY TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. LATEST REGIONAL INITIALIZATION IS TRENDING TOWARD
LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SINCE THE SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THAT
PRECIPITATION IS SHOWING SOME ENHANCED FORCING...WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

A MUCH WEAKER WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...BUT DYNAMICS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE...SO CHANCE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE. AS AFORMENTIONED UPPER LOW PUSHES
FARTHER EAST AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1234 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SITES OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THEY WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT 8-14 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WITH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ALREADY DOWN TO 2 AT KBMG AND WINDS DROPPING TO CALM
THERE AND AT KHUF THINK A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR FOG AT THE
OUTLYING SITES IS WORTH MENTIONING IN A TEMPO GROUP. TIME HEIGHTS
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCATTERED CU SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 5
KFT. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND COULD BRING THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO KLAF.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 020753
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
353 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A FRONT COMBINED WITH UPPER WAVES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BELOW AVERAGE BY MID WEEK AS UPPER
FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY.
SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING CONVECTION INTO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER
DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE FEEL THAT THIS IS OVERDONE.

THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST TODAY. WITH SUNSHINE TODAY
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE NICELY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOCUS REMAINS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. 850MB WINDS INCREASE
AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL FORCING AND MOISTURE. CURRENT TIMING PUTS
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER 06Z.

WILL KEEP THE EVENING DRY AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS
OVERNIGHT. BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA...SO WILL GO WITH HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS THERE WITH
LOWER POPS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. WILL KEEP THE FAR SOUTH DRY BASED
ON THE EXPECTED TIMING.

FRONT WILL STILL BE CROSSING THE AREA ON MONDAY. WITH THE DIURNAL
TREND OF POPS BEING LOWEST IN THE MORNING...WILL GO ONLY LOW POPS IN
THE EAST. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH WHILE ENDING THEM ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTH. KEPT THE POPS LOW BECAUSE OVERALL FORCING WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF THE 850MB JET.

KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH MONDAY EVENING...BUT THEN IT
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE SAGGED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GO DRY
OVERNIGHT. SOME CONCERN ABOUT SOME CONVECTION SNEAKING BACK NORTH BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK...BUT CANNOT
REALLY ARGUE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS OF A DRY FORECAST THEN.

AS THE FRONT RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT BROUGHT POPS BACK NORTH ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESIDE OVER QUEBEC FOR DURATION
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE...WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT
LOW...PERIODICALLY TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. LATEST REGIONAL INITIALIZATION IS TRENDING TOWARD
LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SINCE THE SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THAT
PRECIPITATION IS SHOWING SOME ENHANCED FORCING...WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

A MUCH WEAKER WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...BUT DYNAMICS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE...SO CHANCE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE. AS AFORMENTIONED UPPER LOW PUSHES
FARTHER EAST AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1234 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SITES OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THEY WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT 8-14 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WITH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ALREADY DOWN TO 2 AT KBMG AND WINDS DROPPING TO CALM
THERE AND AT KHUF THINK A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR FOG AT THE
OUTLYING SITES IS WORTH MENTIONING IN A TEMPO GROUP. TIME HEIGHTS
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCATTERED CU SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 5
KFT. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND COULD BRING THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO KLAF.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 020715
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A FRONT COMBINED WITH UPPER WAVES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BELOW AVERAGE BY MID WEEK AS UPPER
FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY.
SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING CONVECTION INTO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER
DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE FEEL THAT THIS IS OVERDONE.

THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST TODAY. WITH SUNSHINE TODAY
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE NICELY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOCUS REMAINS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. 850MB WINDS INCREASE
AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL FORCING AND MOISTURE. CURRENT TIMING PUTS
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER 06Z.

WILL KEEP THE EVENING DRY AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS
OVERNIGHT. BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA...SO WILL GO WITH HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS THERE WITH
LOWER POPS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. WILL KEEP THE FAR SOUTH DRY BASED
ON THE EXPECTED TIMING.

FRONT WILL STILL BE CROSSING THE AREA ON MONDAY. WITH THE DIURNAL
TREND OF POPS BEING LOWEST IN THE MORNING...WILL GO ONLY LOW POPS IN
THE EAST. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH WHILE ENDING THEM ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTH. KEPT THE POPS LOW BECAUSE OVERALL FORCING WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF THE 850MB JET.

KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH MONDAY EVENING...BUT THEN IT
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE SAGGED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GO DRY
OVERNIGHT. SOME CONCERN ABOUT SOME CONVECTION SNEAKING BACK NORTH BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK...BUT CANNOT
REALLY ARGUE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS OF A DRY FORECAST THEN.

AS THE FRONT RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT BROUGHT POPS BACK NORTH ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THEM ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OR
SKIMMING JUST SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND TRACKS THE SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH...GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
KEEPING US DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER INITIALIZATION FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION.
THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
FOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON TO START THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 60S...THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1234 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SITES OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THEY WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT 8-14 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WITH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ALREADY DOWN TO 2 AT KBMG AND WINDS DROPPING TO CALM
THERE AND AT KHUF THINK A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR FOG AT THE
OUTLYING SITES IS WORTH MENTIONING IN A TEMPO GROUP. TIME HEIGHTS
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCATTERED CU SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 5
KFT. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND COULD BRING THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO KLAF.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 020715
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A FRONT COMBINED WITH UPPER WAVES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BELOW AVERAGE BY MID WEEK AS UPPER
FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY.
SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING CONVECTION INTO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER
DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE FEEL THAT THIS IS OVERDONE.

THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST TODAY. WITH SUNSHINE TODAY
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE NICELY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOCUS REMAINS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. 850MB WINDS INCREASE
AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL FORCING AND MOISTURE. CURRENT TIMING PUTS
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER 06Z.

WILL KEEP THE EVENING DRY AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS
OVERNIGHT. BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA...SO WILL GO WITH HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS THERE WITH
LOWER POPS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. WILL KEEP THE FAR SOUTH DRY BASED
ON THE EXPECTED TIMING.

FRONT WILL STILL BE CROSSING THE AREA ON MONDAY. WITH THE DIURNAL
TREND OF POPS BEING LOWEST IN THE MORNING...WILL GO ONLY LOW POPS IN
THE EAST. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH WHILE ENDING THEM ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTH. KEPT THE POPS LOW BECAUSE OVERALL FORCING WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF THE 850MB JET.

KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH MONDAY EVENING...BUT THEN IT
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE SAGGED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GO DRY
OVERNIGHT. SOME CONCERN ABOUT SOME CONVECTION SNEAKING BACK NORTH BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK...BUT CANNOT
REALLY ARGUE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS OF A DRY FORECAST THEN.

AS THE FRONT RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT BROUGHT POPS BACK NORTH ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THEM ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OR
SKIMMING JUST SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND TRACKS THE SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH...GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
KEEPING US DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER INITIALIZATION FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION.
THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
FOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON TO START THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 60S...THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1234 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SITES OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THEY WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT 8-14 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WITH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ALREADY DOWN TO 2 AT KBMG AND WINDS DROPPING TO CALM
THERE AND AT KHUF THINK A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR FOG AT THE
OUTLYING SITES IS WORTH MENTIONING IN A TEMPO GROUP. TIME HEIGHTS
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCATTERED CU SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 5
KFT. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND COULD BRING THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO KLAF.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 020715
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A FRONT COMBINED WITH UPPER WAVES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BELOW AVERAGE BY MID WEEK AS UPPER
FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY.
SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING CONVECTION INTO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER
DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE FEEL THAT THIS IS OVERDONE.

THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST TODAY. WITH SUNSHINE TODAY
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE NICELY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOCUS REMAINS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. 850MB WINDS INCREASE
AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL FORCING AND MOISTURE. CURRENT TIMING PUTS
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER 06Z.

WILL KEEP THE EVENING DRY AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS
OVERNIGHT. BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA...SO WILL GO WITH HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS THERE WITH
LOWER POPS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. WILL KEEP THE FAR SOUTH DRY BASED
ON THE EXPECTED TIMING.

FRONT WILL STILL BE CROSSING THE AREA ON MONDAY. WITH THE DIURNAL
TREND OF POPS BEING LOWEST IN THE MORNING...WILL GO ONLY LOW POPS IN
THE EAST. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH WHILE ENDING THEM ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTH. KEPT THE POPS LOW BECAUSE OVERALL FORCING WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF THE 850MB JET.

KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH MONDAY EVENING...BUT THEN IT
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE SAGGED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GO DRY
OVERNIGHT. SOME CONCERN ABOUT SOME CONVECTION SNEAKING BACK NORTH BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK...BUT CANNOT
REALLY ARGUE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS OF A DRY FORECAST THEN.

AS THE FRONT RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT BROUGHT POPS BACK NORTH ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THEM ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OR
SKIMMING JUST SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND TRACKS THE SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH...GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
KEEPING US DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER INITIALIZATION FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION.
THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
FOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON TO START THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 60S...THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1234 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SITES OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THEY WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT 8-14 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WITH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ALREADY DOWN TO 2 AT KBMG AND WINDS DROPPING TO CALM
THERE AND AT KHUF THINK A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR FOG AT THE
OUTLYING SITES IS WORTH MENTIONING IN A TEMPO GROUP. TIME HEIGHTS
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCATTERED CU SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 5
KFT. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND COULD BRING THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO KLAF.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 020436
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1236 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS PRODUCING PATCHES OF
CIRRUS. SO...BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A BIT. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THEM ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OR
SKIMMING JUST SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND TRACKS THE SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH...GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
KEEPING US DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER INITIALIZATION FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION.
THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
FOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON TO START THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 60S...THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1234 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SITES OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THEY WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT 8-14 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WITH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ALREADY DOWN TO 2 AT KBMG AND WINDS DROPPING TO CALM
THERE AND AT KHUF THINK A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR FOG AT THE
OUTLYING SITES IS WORTH MENTIONING IN A TEMPO GROUP. TIME HEIGHTS
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCATTERED CU SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 5
KFT. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND COULD BRING THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO KLAF.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 020436
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1236 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS PRODUCING PATCHES OF
CIRRUS. SO...BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A BIT. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THEM ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OR
SKIMMING JUST SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND TRACKS THE SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH...GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
KEEPING US DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER INITIALIZATION FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION.
THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
FOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON TO START THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 60S...THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1234 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SITES OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THEY WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT 8-14 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WITH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ALREADY DOWN TO 2 AT KBMG AND WINDS DROPPING TO CALM
THERE AND AT KHUF THINK A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR FOG AT THE
OUTLYING SITES IS WORTH MENTIONING IN A TEMPO GROUP. TIME HEIGHTS
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCATTERED CU SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 5
KFT. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND COULD BRING THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO KLAF.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 020436
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1236 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS PRODUCING PATCHES OF
CIRRUS. SO...BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A BIT. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THEM ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OR
SKIMMING JUST SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND TRACKS THE SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH...GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
KEEPING US DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER INITIALIZATION FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION.
THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
FOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON TO START THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 60S...THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1234 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SITES OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THEY WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT 8-14 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WITH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ALREADY DOWN TO 2 AT KBMG AND WINDS DROPPING TO CALM
THERE AND AT KHUF THINK A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR FOG AT THE
OUTLYING SITES IS WORTH MENTIONING IN A TEMPO GROUP. TIME HEIGHTS
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCATTERED CU SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 5
KFT. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND COULD BRING THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO KLAF.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 020436
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1236 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS PRODUCING PATCHES OF
CIRRUS. SO...BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A BIT. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THEM ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OR
SKIMMING JUST SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND TRACKS THE SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH...GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
KEEPING US DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER INITIALIZATION FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION.
THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
FOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON TO START THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 60S...THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1234 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SITES OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THEY WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT 8-14 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WITH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ALREADY DOWN TO 2 AT KBMG AND WINDS DROPPING TO CALM
THERE AND AT KHUF THINK A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR FOG AT THE
OUTLYING SITES IS WORTH MENTIONING IN A TEMPO GROUP. TIME HEIGHTS
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCATTERED CU SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 5
KFT. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND COULD BRING THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO KLAF.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 020217
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1015 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS PRODUCING PATCHES OF
CIRRUS. SO...BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A BIT. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THEM ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OR
SKIMMING JUST SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND TRACKS THE SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH...GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
KEEPING US DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER INITIALIZATION FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION.
THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
FOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON TO START THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 60S...THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
SITES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AT THE
OUTLYING SITES. SREF PROBABILITIES AND TIME HEIGHTS SHOW NO
POTENTIAL FOR FOG THOUGH LIKELY DUE TO THE VERY DRY COLUMN.
TOMORROW SHOULD SEE WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 9-14 KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND EXPECT TO SEE SOME CU WITH BASES AROUND 5 KFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 020217
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1015 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS PRODUCING PATCHES OF
CIRRUS. SO...BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A BIT. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THEM ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OR
SKIMMING JUST SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND TRACKS THE SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH...GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
KEEPING US DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER INITIALIZATION FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION.
THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
FOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON TO START THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 60S...THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
SITES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AT THE
OUTLYING SITES. SREF PROBABILITIES AND TIME HEIGHTS SHOW NO
POTENTIAL FOR FOG THOUGH LIKELY DUE TO THE VERY DRY COLUMN.
TOMORROW SHOULD SEE WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 9-14 KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND EXPECT TO SEE SOME CU WITH BASES AROUND 5 KFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 020110
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
910 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS PRODUCING PATCHES OF
CIRRUS. SO...BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A BIT. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THEM ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OR
SKIMMING JUST SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND TRACKS THE SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH...GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
KEEPING US DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER INITIALIZATION FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION.
THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
FOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON TO START THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 60S...THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
SITES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AT THE
OUTLYING SITES. SREF PROBABILITIES AND TIME HEIGHTS SHOW NO
POTENTIAL FOR FOG THOUGH LIKELY DUE TO THE VERY DRY COLUMN.
TOMORROW SHOULD SEE WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 9-14 KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND EXPECT TO SEE SOME CU WITH BASES AROUND 5 KFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 020110
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
910 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS PRODUCING PATCHES OF
CIRRUS. SO...BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A BIT. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THEM ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OR
SKIMMING JUST SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND TRACKS THE SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH...GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
KEEPING US DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER INITIALIZATION FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION.
THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
FOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON TO START THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 60S...THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
SITES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AT THE
OUTLYING SITES. SREF PROBABILITIES AND TIME HEIGHTS SHOW NO
POTENTIAL FOR FOG THOUGH LIKELY DUE TO THE VERY DRY COLUMN.
TOMORROW SHOULD SEE WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 9-14 KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND EXPECT TO SEE SOME CU WITH BASES AROUND 5 KFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 012258
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
658 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THEM ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OR
SKIMMING JUST SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND TRACKS THE SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH...GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
KEEPING US DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER INITIALIZATION FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION.
THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
FOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON TO START THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 60S...THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
SITES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AT THE
OUTLYING SITES. SREF PROBABILITIES AND TIME HEIGHTS SHOW NO
POTENTIAL FOR FOG THOUGH LIKELY DUE TO THE VERY DRY COLUMN.
TOMORROW SHOULD SEE WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 9-14 KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND EXPECT TO SEE SOME CU WITH BASES AROUND 5 KFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 012258
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
658 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THEM ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OR
SKIMMING JUST SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND TRACKS THE SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH...GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
KEEPING US DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER INITIALIZATION FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION.
THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
FOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON TO START THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 60S...THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
SITES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AT THE
OUTLYING SITES. SREF PROBABILITIES AND TIME HEIGHTS SHOW NO
POTENTIAL FOR FOG THOUGH LIKELY DUE TO THE VERY DRY COLUMN.
TOMORROW SHOULD SEE WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 9-14 KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND EXPECT TO SEE SOME CU WITH BASES AROUND 5 KFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 012258
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
658 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THEM ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OR
SKIMMING JUST SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND TRACKS THE SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH...GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
KEEPING US DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER INITIALIZATION FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION.
THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
FOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON TO START THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 60S...THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
SITES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AT THE
OUTLYING SITES. SREF PROBABILITIES AND TIME HEIGHTS SHOW NO
POTENTIAL FOR FOG THOUGH LIKELY DUE TO THE VERY DRY COLUMN.
TOMORROW SHOULD SEE WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 9-14 KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND EXPECT TO SEE SOME CU WITH BASES AROUND 5 KFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 012258
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
658 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THEM ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OR
SKIMMING JUST SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND TRACKS THE SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH...GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
KEEPING US DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER INITIALIZATION FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION.
THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
FOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON TO START THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 60S...THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
SITES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AT THE
OUTLYING SITES. SREF PROBABILITIES AND TIME HEIGHTS SHOW NO
POTENTIAL FOR FOG THOUGH LIKELY DUE TO THE VERY DRY COLUMN.
TOMORROW SHOULD SEE WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 9-14 KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND EXPECT TO SEE SOME CU WITH BASES AROUND 5 KFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 012033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
432 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THEM ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OR
SKIMMING JUST SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND TRACKS THE SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH...GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
KEEPING US DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER INITIALIZATION FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION.
THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
FOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON TO START THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 60S...THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 012100Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES.

STILL NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT EVEN AT OUTLYING
SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...SMF/CP





000
FXUS63 KIND 012033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
432 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THEM ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OR
SKIMMING JUST SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND TRACKS THE SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH...GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
KEEPING US DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER INITIALIZATION FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION.
THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
FOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON TO START THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 60S...THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 012100Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES.

STILL NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT EVEN AT OUTLYING
SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...SMF/CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 011834
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THEM ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OR
SKIMMING JUST SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND TRACKS THE SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH...GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
KEEPING US DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER INITIALIZATION FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION.
THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
FOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON TO START THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 60S...THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES.

STILL NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT EVEN AT OUTLYING
SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...SMF




000
FXUS63 KIND 011834
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THEM ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OR
SKIMMING JUST SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND TRACKS THE SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH...GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
KEEPING US DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER INITIALIZATION FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION.
THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
FOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON TO START THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 60S...THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES.

STILL NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT EVEN AT OUTLYING
SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...SMF





000
FXUS63 KIND 011834
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THEM ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OR
SKIMMING JUST SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND TRACKS THE SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH...GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
KEEPING US DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER INITIALIZATION FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION.
THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
FOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON TO START THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 60S...THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES.

STILL NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT EVEN AT OUTLYING
SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...SMF




000
FXUS63 KIND 011834
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THEM ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OR
SKIMMING JUST SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND TRACKS THE SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH...GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
KEEPING US DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER INITIALIZATION FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION.
THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
FOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON TO START THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 60S...THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES.

STILL NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT EVEN AT OUTLYING
SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...SMF





000
FXUS63 KIND 011759
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES.

STILL NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT EVEN AT OUTLYING
SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...SMF





000
FXUS63 KIND 011759
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES.

STILL NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT EVEN AT OUTLYING
SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...SMF





000
FXUS63 KIND 011759
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES.

STILL NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT EVEN AT OUTLYING
SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...SMF




000
FXUS63 KIND 011731
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
131 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. IR IMAGES
FAIL TO SHOW ANY CLOUDS IN INDIANA. COOL NW FLOW WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE
50S.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 90S FALLING TO THE UPPER 80S LATE IN THE
DAY. THUS WILL LOOKS FOR A FEW ISOLATED CU POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN
OUR EXPECTED 850MB TEMPS AND EXTENDED SUN...ONGOING FORECAST
TEMPS LOOK ON THE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES.

STILL NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT EVEN AT OUTLYING
SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...SMF





000
FXUS63 KIND 011731
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
131 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. IR IMAGES
FAIL TO SHOW ANY CLOUDS IN INDIANA. COOL NW FLOW WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE
50S.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 90S FALLING TO THE UPPER 80S LATE IN THE
DAY. THUS WILL LOOKS FOR A FEW ISOLATED CU POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN
OUR EXPECTED 850MB TEMPS AND EXTENDED SUN...ONGOING FORECAST
TEMPS LOOK ON THE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES.

STILL NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT EVEN AT OUTLYING
SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...SMF




000
FXUS63 KIND 011440
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1040 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. IR IMAGES
FAIL TO SHOW ANY CLOUDS IN INDIANA. COOL NW FLOW WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE
50S.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 90S FALLING TO THE UPPER 80S LATE IN THE
DAY. THUS WILL LOOKS FOR A FEW ISOLATED CU POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN
OUR EXPECTED 850MB TEMPS AND EXTENDED SUN...ONGOING FORECAST
TEMPS LOOK ON THE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

1430Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES. DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT
EVEN AT OUTLYING SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
LATE IN TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...SMF





000
FXUS63 KIND 011440
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1040 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. IR IMAGES
FAIL TO SHOW ANY CLOUDS IN INDIANA. COOL NW FLOW WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE
50S.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 90S FALLING TO THE UPPER 80S LATE IN THE
DAY. THUS WILL LOOKS FOR A FEW ISOLATED CU POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN
OUR EXPECTED 850MB TEMPS AND EXTENDED SUN...ONGOING FORECAST
TEMPS LOOK ON THE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

1430Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES. DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT
EVEN AT OUTLYING SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
LATE IN TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...SMF




000
FXUS63 KIND 011440
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1040 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. IR IMAGES
FAIL TO SHOW ANY CLOUDS IN INDIANA. COOL NW FLOW WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE
50S.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 90S FALLING TO THE UPPER 80S LATE IN THE
DAY. THUS WILL LOOKS FOR A FEW ISOLATED CU POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN
OUR EXPECTED 850MB TEMPS AND EXTENDED SUN...ONGOING FORECAST
TEMPS LOOK ON THE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

1430Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES. DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT
EVEN AT OUTLYING SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
LATE IN TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...SMF





000
FXUS63 KIND 011440
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1040 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. IR IMAGES
FAIL TO SHOW ANY CLOUDS IN INDIANA. COOL NW FLOW WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE
50S.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 90S FALLING TO THE UPPER 80S LATE IN THE
DAY. THUS WILL LOOKS FOR A FEW ISOLATED CU POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN
OUR EXPECTED 850MB TEMPS AND EXTENDED SUN...ONGOING FORECAST
TEMPS LOOK ON THE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

1430Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES. DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT
EVEN AT OUTLYING SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
LATE IN TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...SMF




000
FXUS63 KIND 011403
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1003 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. IR IMAGES
FAIL TO SHOW ANY CLOUDS IN INDIANA. COOL NW FLOW WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE
50S.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 90S FALLING TO THE UPPER 80S LATE IN THE
DAY. THUS WILL LOOKS FOR A FEW ISOLATED CU POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN
OUR EXPECTED 850MB TEMPS AND EXTENDED SUN...ONGOING FORECAST
TEMPS LOOK ON THE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES. DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT
EVEN AT OUTLYING SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
LATE IN TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 011403
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1003 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. IR IMAGES
FAIL TO SHOW ANY CLOUDS IN INDIANA. COOL NW FLOW WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE
50S.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 90S FALLING TO THE UPPER 80S LATE IN THE
DAY. THUS WILL LOOKS FOR A FEW ISOLATED CU POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN
OUR EXPECTED 850MB TEMPS AND EXTENDED SUN...ONGOING FORECAST
TEMPS LOOK ON THE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES. DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT
EVEN AT OUTLYING SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
LATE IN TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD




000
FXUS63 KIND 011137
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
737 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
LEVELS DRY. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...SO SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD COVER IT.

MOS RAN A LITTLE COOL FRIDAY...SO WILL BUMP UP MOS A BIT FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELLING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES. DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT
EVEN AT OUTLYING SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
LATE IN TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 011137
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
737 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
LEVELS DRY. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...SO SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD COVER IT.

MOS RAN A LITTLE COOL FRIDAY...SO WILL BUMP UP MOS A BIT FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELLING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES. DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT
EVEN AT OUTLYING SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
LATE IN TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD




000
FXUS63 KIND 011137
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
737 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
LEVELS DRY. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...SO SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD COVER IT.

MOS RAN A LITTLE COOL FRIDAY...SO WILL BUMP UP MOS A BIT FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELLING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES. DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT
EVEN AT OUTLYING SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
LATE IN TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD




000
FXUS63 KIND 011137
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
737 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
LEVELS DRY. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...SO SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD COVER IT.

MOS RAN A LITTLE COOL FRIDAY...SO WILL BUMP UP MOS A BIT FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELLING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES. DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT
EVEN AT OUTLYING SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
LATE IN TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 011004
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
604 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
LEVELS DRY. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...SO SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD COVER IT.

MOS RAN A LITTLE COOL FRIDAY...SO WILL BUMP UP MOS A BIT FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELLING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF FOG AFTER 09Z AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN
ANYWHERE. LAST NIGHT FOG ONLY OCCURED AT LAF AND LASTED LESS THAN AN
HOUR. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD FORM AFTER 16Z.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10
KNOTS BY 16Z OR A BIT BEFORE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK/TDUD




000
FXUS63 KIND 011004
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
604 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
LEVELS DRY. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...SO SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD COVER IT.

MOS RAN A LITTLE COOL FRIDAY...SO WILL BUMP UP MOS A BIT FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELLING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF FOG AFTER 09Z AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN
ANYWHERE. LAST NIGHT FOG ONLY OCCURED AT LAF AND LASTED LESS THAN AN
HOUR. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD FORM AFTER 16Z.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10
KNOTS BY 16Z OR A BIT BEFORE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK/TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 010752
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
352 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
LEVELS DRY. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...SO SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD COVER IT.

MOS RAN A LITTLE COOL FRIDAY...SO WILL BUMP UP MOS A BIT FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELLING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF FOG AFTER 09Z AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN
ANYWHERE. LAST NIGHT FOG ONLY OCCURED AT LAF AND LASTED LESS THAN AN
HOUR. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD FORM AFTER 16Z.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10
KNOTS BY 16Z OR A BIT BEFORE.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 010752
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
352 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
LEVELS DRY. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...SO SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD COVER IT.

MOS RAN A LITTLE COOL FRIDAY...SO WILL BUMP UP MOS A BIT FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELLING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF FOG AFTER 09Z AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN
ANYWHERE. LAST NIGHT FOG ONLY OCCURED AT LAF AND LASTED LESS THAN AN
HOUR. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD FORM AFTER 16Z.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10
KNOTS BY 16Z OR A BIT BEFORE.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 010752
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
352 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
LEVELS DRY. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...SO SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD COVER IT.

MOS RAN A LITTLE COOL FRIDAY...SO WILL BUMP UP MOS A BIT FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELLING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF FOG AFTER 09Z AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN
ANYWHERE. LAST NIGHT FOG ONLY OCCURED AT LAF AND LASTED LESS THAN AN
HOUR. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD FORM AFTER 16Z.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10
KNOTS BY 16Z OR A BIT BEFORE.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 010716
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
LEVELS DRY. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...SO SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD COVER IT.

MOS RAN A LITTLE COOL FRIDAY...SO WILL BUMP UP MOS A BIT FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF FOG AFTER 09Z AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN
ANYWHERE. LAST NIGHT FOG ONLY OCCURED AT LAF AND LASTED LESS THAN AN
HOUR. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD FORM AFTER 16Z.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10
KNOTS BY 16Z OR A BIT BEFORE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 010716
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
LEVELS DRY. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...SO SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD COVER IT.

MOS RAN A LITTLE COOL FRIDAY...SO WILL BUMP UP MOS A BIT FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF FOG AFTER 09Z AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN
ANYWHERE. LAST NIGHT FOG ONLY OCCURED AT LAF AND LASTED LESS THAN AN
HOUR. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD FORM AFTER 16Z.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10
KNOTS BY 16Z OR A BIT BEFORE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 010456
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1256 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTH BASED ON DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS OF
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF FOG AFTER 09Z AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN
ANYWHERE. LAST NIGHT FOG ONLY OCCURED AT LAF AND LASTED LESS THAN AN
HOUR. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD FORM AFTER 16Z.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10
KNOTS BY 16Z OR A BIT BEFORE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 010456
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1256 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTH BASED ON DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS OF
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF FOG AFTER 09Z AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN
ANYWHERE. LAST NIGHT FOG ONLY OCCURED AT LAF AND LASTED LESS THAN AN
HOUR. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD FORM AFTER 16Z.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10
KNOTS BY 16Z OR A BIT BEFORE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 010230
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTH BASED ON DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS OF
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD.

WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING LOWER DEW POINTS TO THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SO...DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 01Z
THIS EVENING AND RE-FORM AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST AROUND ISSUANCE
TIME AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 010230
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTH BASED ON DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS OF
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD.

WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING LOWER DEW POINTS TO THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SO...DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 01Z
THIS EVENING AND RE-FORM AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST AROUND ISSUANCE
TIME AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 010230
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTH BASED ON DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS OF
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD.

WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING LOWER DEW POINTS TO THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SO...DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 01Z
THIS EVENING AND RE-FORM AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST AROUND ISSUANCE
TIME AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 010230
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTH BASED ON DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS OF
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD.

WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING LOWER DEW POINTS TO THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SO...DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 01Z
THIS EVENING AND RE-FORM AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST AROUND ISSUANCE
TIME AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 010148
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTH BASED ON DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS OF
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD.

WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING LOWER DEW POINTS TO THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SO...DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 01Z
THIS EVENING AND RE-FORM AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST AROUND ISSUANCE
TIME AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 010148
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTH BASED ON DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS OF
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD.

WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING LOWER DEW POINTS TO THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SO...DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 01Z
THIS EVENING AND RE-FORM AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST AROUND ISSUANCE
TIME AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 312205
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
605 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR
MOSAIC AND SATELLITE LOOPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD.

WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING LOWER DEW POINTS TO THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SO...DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 01Z
THIS EVENING AND RE-FORM AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST AROUND ISSUANCE
TIME AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 312205
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
605 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR
MOSAIC AND SATELLITE LOOPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD.

WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING LOWER DEW POINTS TO THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SO...DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 01Z
THIS EVENING AND RE-FORM AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST AROUND ISSUANCE
TIME AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 312033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
433 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR
MOSAIC AND SATELLITE LOOPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 312100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

RAISED WINDS TO 12 KNOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 312033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
433 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR
MOSAIC AND SATELLITE LOOPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 312100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

RAISED WINDS TO 12 KNOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 312033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
433 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR
MOSAIC AND SATELLITE LOOPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 312100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

RAISED WINDS TO 12 KNOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 312033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
433 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR
MOSAIC AND SATELLITE LOOPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 312100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

RAISED WINDS TO 12 KNOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 311940
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS AND NEAR TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR
MOSAIC AND SATELLITE LOOPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 311940
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS AND NEAR TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR
MOSAIC AND SATELLITE LOOPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 311917
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
317 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SHORT TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS THIS EVENING. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 311813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS THIS EVENING. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 311813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS THIS EVENING. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 311726
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS AND NEAR TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS THIS EVENING. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 311726
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS AND NEAR TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS THIS EVENING. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 311726
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS AND NEAR TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS THIS EVENING. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 311620
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MADE A FEW
UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 311620
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MADE A FEW
UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 311620
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MADE A FEW
UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 311438
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1038 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MADE A FEW
UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WILL EXPECTED SOME SCT CU THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. MID LEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE ALOFT AND
THROUGH THE COLUMN...CHCS FOR PRECIP APPEAR TOO ISOLATED FOR EVEN
A VCTS MENTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/1200Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-
ADDRESSED WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF TAF
PERIOD FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 13 KTS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 311438
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1038 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MADE A FEW
UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WILL EXPECTED SOME SCT CU THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. MID LEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE ALOFT AND
THROUGH THE COLUMN...CHCS FOR PRECIP APPEAR TOO ISOLATED FOR EVEN
A VCTS MENTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/1200Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-
ADDRESSED WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF TAF
PERIOD FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 13 KTS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 311438
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1038 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MADE A FEW
UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WILL EXPECTED SOME SCT CU THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. MID LEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE ALOFT AND
THROUGH THE COLUMN...CHCS FOR PRECIP APPEAR TOO ISOLATED FOR EVEN
A VCTS MENTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/1200Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-
ADDRESSED WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF TAF
PERIOD FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 13 KTS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 311438
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1038 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MADE A FEW
UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WILL EXPECTED SOME SCT CU THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. MID LEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE ALOFT AND
THROUGH THE COLUMN...CHCS FOR PRECIP APPEAR TOO ISOLATED FOR EVEN
A VCTS MENTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/1200Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-
ADDRESSED WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF TAF
PERIOD FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 13 KTS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 311426
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WILL EXPECTED SOME SCT CU THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. MID LEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE ALOFT AND
THROUGH THE COLUMN...CHCS FOR PRECIP APPEAR TOO ISOLATED FOR EVEN
A VCTS MENTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/1200Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-
ADDRESSED WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF TAF
PERIOD FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 13 KTS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 311426
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WILL EXPECTED SOME SCT CU THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. MID LEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE ALOFT AND
THROUGH THE COLUMN...CHCS FOR PRECIP APPEAR TOO ISOLATED FOR EVEN
A VCTS MENTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/1200Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-
ADDRESSED WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF TAF
PERIOD FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 13 KTS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 311426
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WILL EXPECTED SOME SCT CU THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. MID LEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE ALOFT AND
THROUGH THE COLUMN...CHCS FOR PRECIP APPEAR TOO ISOLATED FOR EVEN
A VCTS MENTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/1200Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-
ADDRESSED WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF TAF
PERIOD FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 13 KTS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 311426
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WILL EXPECTED SOME SCT CU THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. MID LEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE ALOFT AND
THROUGH THE COLUMN...CHCS FOR PRECIP APPEAR TOO ISOLATED FOR EVEN
A VCTS MENTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/1200Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-
ADDRESSED WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF TAF
PERIOD FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 13 KTS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 311127
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
727 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/1200Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-
ADDRESSED WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF TAF
PERIOD FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 13 KTS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD




000
FXUS63 KIND 311127
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
727 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/1200Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-
ADDRESSED WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF TAF
PERIOD FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 13 KTS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 311127
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
727 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/1200Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-
ADDRESSED WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF TAF
PERIOD FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 13 KTS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD




000
FXUS63 KIND 311127
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
727 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/1200Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-
ADDRESSED WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF TAF
PERIOD FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 13 KTS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 310817
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
417 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES AT KIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF
MVFR OR IFR FOG OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 5K FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN AFTER 01Z SATURDAY.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AFTER 16Z TO 10 KNOTS
OR SO.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK/TDUD




000
FXUS63 KIND 310817
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
417 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES AT KIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF
MVFR OR IFR FOG OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 5K FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN AFTER 01Z SATURDAY.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AFTER 16Z TO 10 KNOTS
OR SO.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK/TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 310747
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
347 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF
MVFR OR IFR FOG OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 5K FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN AFTER 01Z SATURDAY.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AFTER 16Z TO 10 KNOTS
OR SO.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 310747
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
347 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF
MVFR OR IFR FOG OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 5K FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN AFTER 01Z SATURDAY.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AFTER 16Z TO 10 KNOTS
OR SO.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 310649
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF
MVFR OR IFR FOG OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 5K FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN AFTER 01Z SATURDAY.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AFTER 16Z TO 10 KNOTS
OR SO.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 310649
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF
MVFR OR IFR FOG OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 5K FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN AFTER 01Z SATURDAY.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AFTER 16Z TO 10 KNOTS
OR SO.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 310649
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF
MVFR OR IFR FOG OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 5K FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN AFTER 01Z SATURDAY.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AFTER 16Z TO 10 KNOTS
OR SO.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 310540
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
140 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEITHER APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT TO BRING MORE THAN A LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK DRY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AND THUS WILL GO WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WENT JUST A
DEGREE ABOVE MAVMOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE WINDS DO NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THE SURFACE
REMAINS VERY MOIST FROM THE RECORD RAINFALL RECEIVED THIS PAST
MONTH. FORECAST LOWS...LOW 60S /NORTH COUNTIES/ TO MID 60S /SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY. MODELS HINT MOSTLY AT THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING...IMPACT LOOKS MINIMAL...AND THE COLUMN STILL SO VERY DRY
DURING THIS TIME THAT DOUBT MUCH MORE THAN AND INCREASE IN LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS LIKELY. THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTS OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW.

DEW POINTS WILL START CREEPING UP AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY AS A
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
COLUMN APPEARS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES FOR CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS.

MAVMOS APPEARS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. ONLY NEEDED
TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AT TIMES...AS BOTH THE HIGHS AND LOWS APPEARS TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF
MVFR OR IFR FOG OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 5K FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN AFTER 01Z SATURDAY.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AFTER 16Z TO 10 KNOTS
OR SO.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 310540
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
140 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEITHER APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT TO BRING MORE THAN A LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK DRY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AND THUS WILL GO WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WENT JUST A
DEGREE ABOVE MAVMOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE WINDS DO NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THE SURFACE
REMAINS VERY MOIST FROM THE RECORD RAINFALL RECEIVED THIS PAST
MONTH. FORECAST LOWS...LOW 60S /NORTH COUNTIES/ TO MID 60S /SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY. MODELS HINT MOSTLY AT THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING...IMPACT LOOKS MINIMAL...AND THE COLUMN STILL SO VERY DRY
DURING THIS TIME THAT DOUBT MUCH MORE THAN AND INCREASE IN LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS LIKELY. THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTS OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW.

DEW POINTS WILL START CREEPING UP AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY AS A
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
COLUMN APPEARS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES FOR CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS.

MAVMOS APPEARS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. ONLY NEEDED
TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AT TIMES...AS BOTH THE HIGHS AND LOWS APPEARS TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF
MVFR OR IFR FOG OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 5K FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN AFTER 01Z SATURDAY.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AFTER 16Z TO 10 KNOTS
OR SO.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 310221
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEITHER APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT TO BRING MORE THAN A LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK DRY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AND THUS WILL GO WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WENT JUST A
DEGREE ABOVE MAVMOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE WINDS DO NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THE SURFACE
REMAINS VERY MOIST FROM THE RECORD RAINFALL RECEIVED THIS PAST
MONTH. FORECAST LOWS...LOW 60S /NORTH COUNTIES/ TO MID 60S /SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY. MODELS HINT MOSTLY AT THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING...IMPACT LOOKS MINIMAL...AND THE COLUMN STILL SO VERY DRY
DURING THIS TIME THAT DOUBT MUCH MORE THAN AND INCREASE IN LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS LIKELY. THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTS OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW.

DEW POINTS WILL START CREEPING UP AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY AS A
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
COLUMN APPEARS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES FOR CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS.

MAVMOS APPEARS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. ONLY NEEDED
TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AT TIMES...AS BOTH THE HIGHS AND LOWS APPEARS TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 310300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF. VFR TO CONTINUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS OR AC AT HUF AND BMG TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND SATELLTE TRENDS SUGGEST CLEAR
SKIES. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE EVEN
WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT
AFTER 16Z FRIDAY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT FEW AFTERNOON CU TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 310221
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEITHER APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT TO BRING MORE THAN A LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK DRY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AND THUS WILL GO WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WENT JUST A
DEGREE ABOVE MAVMOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE WINDS DO NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THE SURFACE
REMAINS VERY MOIST FROM THE RECORD RAINFALL RECEIVED THIS PAST
MONTH. FORECAST LOWS...LOW 60S /NORTH COUNTIES/ TO MID 60S /SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY. MODELS HINT MOSTLY AT THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING...IMPACT LOOKS MINIMAL...AND THE COLUMN STILL SO VERY DRY
DURING THIS TIME THAT DOUBT MUCH MORE THAN AND INCREASE IN LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS LIKELY. THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTS OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW.

DEW POINTS WILL START CREEPING UP AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY AS A
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
COLUMN APPEARS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES FOR CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS.

MAVMOS APPEARS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. ONLY NEEDED
TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AT TIMES...AS BOTH THE HIGHS AND LOWS APPEARS TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 310300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF. VFR TO CONTINUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS OR AC AT HUF AND BMG TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND SATELLTE TRENDS SUGGEST CLEAR
SKIES. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE EVEN
WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT
AFTER 16Z FRIDAY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT FEW AFTERNOON CU TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 310151
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
950 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEITHER APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT TO BRING MORE THAN A LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK DRY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AND THUS WILL GO WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WENT JUST A
DEGREE ABOVE MAVMOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE WINDS DO NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THE SURFACE
REMAINS VERY MOIST FROM THE RECORD RAINFALL RECEIVED THIS PAST
MONTH. FORECAST LOWS...LOW 60S /NORTH COUNTIES/ TO MID 60S /SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY. MODELS HINT MOSTLY AT THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING...IMPACT LOOKS MINIMAL...AND THE COLUMN STILL SO VERY DRY
DURING THIS TIME THAT DOUBT MUCH MORE THAN AND INCREASE IN LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS LIKELY. THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTS OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW.

DEW POINTS WILL START CREEPING UP AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY AS A
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
COLUMN APPEARS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES FOR CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS.

MAVMOS APPEARS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. ONLY NEEDED
TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AT TIMES...AS BOTH THE HIGHS AND LOWS APPEARS TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 310000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS OR AC AT HUF AND BMG TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND SATELLTE TRENDS SUGGEST CLEAR
SKIES. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE EVEN
WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT
AFTER 16Z FRIDAY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT FEW AFTERNOON CU TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 310151
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
950 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEITHER APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT TO BRING MORE THAN A LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK DRY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AND THUS WILL GO WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WENT JUST A
DEGREE ABOVE MAVMOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE WINDS DO NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THE SURFACE
REMAINS VERY MOIST FROM THE RECORD RAINFALL RECEIVED THIS PAST
MONTH. FORECAST LOWS...LOW 60S /NORTH COUNTIES/ TO MID 60S /SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY. MODELS HINT MOSTLY AT THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING...IMPACT LOOKS MINIMAL...AND THE COLUMN STILL SO VERY DRY
DURING THIS TIME THAT DOUBT MUCH MORE THAN AND INCREASE IN LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS LIKELY. THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTS OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW.

DEW POINTS WILL START CREEPING UP AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY AS A
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
COLUMN APPEARS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES FOR CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS.

MAVMOS APPEARS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. ONLY NEEDED
TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AT TIMES...AS BOTH THE HIGHS AND LOWS APPEARS TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 310000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS OR AC AT HUF AND BMG TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND SATELLTE TRENDS SUGGEST CLEAR
SKIES. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE EVEN
WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT
AFTER 16Z FRIDAY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT FEW AFTERNOON CU TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 302205
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
605 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEITHER APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT TO BRING MORE THAN A LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK DRY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AND THUS WILL GO WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WENT JUST A
DEGREE ABOVE MAVMOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE WINDS DO NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THE SURFACE
REMAINS VERY MOIST FROM THE RECORD RAINFALL RECEIVED THIS PAST
MONTH. FORECAST LOWS...LOW 60S (NORTH COUNTIES) TO MID 60S (SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY. MODELS HINT MOSTLY AT THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING...IMPACT LOOKS MINIMAL...AND THE COLUMN STILL SO VERY DRY
DURING THIS TIME THAT DOUBT MUCH MORE THAN AND INCREASE IN LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS LIKELY. THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTS OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW.

DEW POINTS WILL START CREEPING UP AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY AS A
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
COLUMN APPEARS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES FOR CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS.

MAVMOS APPEARS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. ONLY NEEDED
TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AT TIMES...AS BOTH THE HIGHS AND LOWS APPEARS TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 310000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS OR AC AT HUF AND BMG TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND SATELLTE TRENDS SUGGEST CLEAR
SKIES. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE EVEN
WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT
AFTER 16Z FRIDAY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT FEW AFTERNOON CU TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 302205
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
605 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEITHER APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT TO BRING MORE THAN A LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK DRY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AND THUS WILL GO WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WENT JUST A
DEGREE ABOVE MAVMOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE WINDS DO NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THE SURFACE
REMAINS VERY MOIST FROM THE RECORD RAINFALL RECEIVED THIS PAST
MONTH. FORECAST LOWS...LOW 60S (NORTH COUNTIES) TO MID 60S (SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY. MODELS HINT MOSTLY AT THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING...IMPACT LOOKS MINIMAL...AND THE COLUMN STILL SO VERY DRY
DURING THIS TIME THAT DOUBT MUCH MORE THAN AND INCREASE IN LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS LIKELY. THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTS OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW.

DEW POINTS WILL START CREEPING UP AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY AS A
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
COLUMN APPEARS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES FOR CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS.

MAVMOS APPEARS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. ONLY NEEDED
TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AT TIMES...AS BOTH THE HIGHS AND LOWS APPEARS TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 310000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS OR AC AT HUF AND BMG TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND SATELLTE TRENDS SUGGEST CLEAR
SKIES. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE EVEN
WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT
AFTER 16Z FRIDAY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT FEW AFTERNOON CU TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 302025
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
425 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEITHER APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT TO BRING MORE THAN A LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK DRY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AND THUS WILL GO WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WENT JUST A
DEGREE ABOVE MAVMOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE WINDS DO NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THE SURFACE
REMAINS VERY MOIST FROM THE RECORD RAINFALL RECEIVED THIS PAST
MONTH. FORECAST LOWS...LOW 60S (NORTH COUNTIES) TO MID 60S (SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY. MODELS HINT MOSTLY AT THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING...IMPACT LOOKS MINIMAL...AND THE COLUMN STILL SO VERY DRY
DURING THIS TIME THAT DOUBT MUCH MORE THAN AND INCREASE IN LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS LIKELY. THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTS OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW.

DEW POINTS WILL START CREEPING UP AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY AS A
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
COLUMN APPEARS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES FOR CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS.

MAVMOS APPEARS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. ONLY NEEDED
TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AT TIMES...AS BOTH THE HIGHS AND LOWS APPEARS TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 302100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

ADDED GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS THROUGH 01Z PER RECENT OBS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS EXPECT CLEAR SKIES.

CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MID 80S MAY RESULT IN
SOME SCT CU AFTER 20Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 302025
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
425 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEITHER APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT TO BRING MORE THAN A LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK DRY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AND THUS WILL GO WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WENT JUST A
DEGREE ABOVE MAVMOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE WINDS DO NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THE SURFACE
REMAINS VERY MOIST FROM THE RECORD RAINFALL RECEIVED THIS PAST
MONTH. FORECAST LOWS...LOW 60S (NORTH COUNTIES) TO MID 60S (SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY. MODELS HINT MOSTLY AT THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING...IMPACT LOOKS MINIMAL...AND THE COLUMN STILL SO VERY DRY
DURING THIS TIME THAT DOUBT MUCH MORE THAN AND INCREASE IN LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS LIKELY. THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTS OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW.

DEW POINTS WILL START CREEPING UP AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY AS A
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
COLUMN APPEARS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES FOR CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS.

MAVMOS APPEARS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. ONLY NEEDED
TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AT TIMES...AS BOTH THE HIGHS AND LOWS APPEARS TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 302100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

ADDED GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS THROUGH 01Z PER RECENT OBS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS EXPECT CLEAR SKIES.

CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MID 80S MAY RESULT IN
SOME SCT CU AFTER 20Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 302025
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
425 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEITHER APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT TO BRING MORE THAN A LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK DRY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AND THUS WILL GO WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WENT JUST A
DEGREE ABOVE MAVMOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE WINDS DO NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THE SURFACE
REMAINS VERY MOIST FROM THE RECORD RAINFALL RECEIVED THIS PAST
MONTH. FORECAST LOWS...LOW 60S (NORTH COUNTIES) TO MID 60S (SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY. MODELS HINT MOSTLY AT THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING...IMPACT LOOKS MINIMAL...AND THE COLUMN STILL SO VERY DRY
DURING THIS TIME THAT DOUBT MUCH MORE THAN AND INCREASE IN LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS LIKELY. THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTS OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW.

DEW POINTS WILL START CREEPING UP AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY AS A
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
COLUMN APPEARS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES FOR CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS.

MAVMOS APPEARS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. ONLY NEEDED
TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AT TIMES...AS BOTH THE HIGHS AND LOWS APPEARS TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 302100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

ADDED GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS THROUGH 01Z PER RECENT OBS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS EXPECT CLEAR SKIES.

CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MID 80S MAY RESULT IN
SOME SCT CU AFTER 20Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 301902
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
302 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEITHER APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT TO BRING MORE THAN A LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK DRY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AND THUS WILL GO WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WENT JUST A
DEGREE ABOVE MAVMOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE WINDS DO NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THE SURFACE
REMAINS VERY MOIST FROM THE RECORD RAINFALL RECEIVED THIS PAST
MONTH. FORECAST LOWS...LOW 60S (NORTH COUNTIES) TO MID 60S (SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY. MODELS HINT MOSTLY AT THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING...IMPACT LOOKS MINIMAL...AND THE COLUMN STILL SO VERY DRY
DURING THIS TIME THAT DOUBT MUCH MORE THAN AND INCREASE IN LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS LIKELY. THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTS OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW.

DEW POINTS WILL START CREEPING UP AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY AS A
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
COLUMN APPEARS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES FOR CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS.

MAVMOS APPEARS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. ONLY NEEDED
TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AT TIMES...AS BOTH THE HIGHS AND LOWS APPEARS TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 301800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS EXPECT CLEAR SKIES.

CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MID 80S MAY RESULT IN
SOME SCT CU AFTER 20Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 301902
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
302 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEITHER APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT TO BRING MORE THAN A LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK DRY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AND THUS WILL GO WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WENT JUST A
DEGREE ABOVE MAVMOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE WINDS DO NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THE SURFACE
REMAINS VERY MOIST FROM THE RECORD RAINFALL RECEIVED THIS PAST
MONTH. FORECAST LOWS...LOW 60S (NORTH COUNTIES) TO MID 60S (SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY. MODELS HINT MOSTLY AT THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING...IMPACT LOOKS MINIMAL...AND THE COLUMN STILL SO VERY DRY
DURING THIS TIME THAT DOUBT MUCH MORE THAN AND INCREASE IN LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS LIKELY. THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTS OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW.

DEW POINTS WILL START CREEPING UP AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY AS A
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
COLUMN APPEARS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES FOR CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS.

MAVMOS APPEARS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. ONLY NEEDED
TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AT TIMES...AS BOTH THE HIGHS AND LOWS APPEARS TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 301800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS EXPECT CLEAR SKIES.

CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MID 80S MAY RESULT IN
SOME SCT CU AFTER 20Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 301902
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
302 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEITHER APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT TO BRING MORE THAN A LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK DRY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AND THUS WILL GO WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WENT JUST A
DEGREE ABOVE MAVMOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE WINDS DO NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THE SURFACE
REMAINS VERY MOIST FROM THE RECORD RAINFALL RECEIVED THIS PAST
MONTH. FORECAST LOWS...LOW 60S (NORTH COUNTIES) TO MID 60S (SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY. MODELS HINT MOSTLY AT THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING...IMPACT LOOKS MINIMAL...AND THE COLUMN STILL SO VERY DRY
DURING THIS TIME THAT DOUBT MUCH MORE THAN AND INCREASE IN LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS LIKELY. THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTS OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW.

DEW POINTS WILL START CREEPING UP AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY AS A
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
COLUMN APPEARS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES FOR CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS.

MAVMOS APPEARS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. ONLY NEEDED
TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AT TIMES...AS BOTH THE HIGHS AND LOWS APPEARS TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 301800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS EXPECT CLEAR SKIES.

CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MID 80S MAY RESULT IN
SOME SCT CU AFTER 20Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 301902
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
302 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEITHER APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT TO BRING MORE THAN A LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK DRY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AND THUS WILL GO WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WENT JUST A
DEGREE ABOVE MAVMOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE WINDS DO NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THE SURFACE
REMAINS VERY MOIST FROM THE RECORD RAINFALL RECEIVED THIS PAST
MONTH. FORECAST LOWS...LOW 60S (NORTH COUNTIES) TO MID 60S (SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY. MODELS HINT MOSTLY AT THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING...IMPACT LOOKS MINIMAL...AND THE COLUMN STILL SO VERY DRY
DURING THIS TIME THAT DOUBT MUCH MORE THAN AND INCREASE IN LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS LIKELY. THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTS OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW.

DEW POINTS WILL START CREEPING UP AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY AS A
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
COLUMN APPEARS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES FOR CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS.

MAVMOS APPEARS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. ONLY NEEDED
TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AT TIMES...AS BOTH THE HIGHS AND LOWS APPEARS TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 301800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS EXPECT CLEAR SKIES.

CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MID 80S MAY RESULT IN
SOME SCT CU AFTER 20Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 301804
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
204 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEITHER APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT TO BRING MORE THAN A LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS MORNING/S FORECAST UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST IN TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS
THIS MORNING. CENTRAL INDIANA IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A LOVELY
SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEW
POINTS/HUMIDITY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

EXPECT A SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES UNLIKELY TO
BE REACHED. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S APPEAR QUITE REASONABLE
BASED ON UPSTREAM MAX TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY. THIS WOULD BE NEAR
EXPECTED NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

ASIDE FROM TEMPERATURES...ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUE APPEARING IN THE
SHORT TERM IS A WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY
BUT DISAGREE ON ITS IMPACT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED GIVEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTTING OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A 14 POP AND NO WEATHER IN LIGHT OF
THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION IN THE LOW LEVELS
AS A RESULT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS THE WEEKEND NEARS.

CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED TOO COOL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PER
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS AND 850 TEMPS AND WERE BUMPED UP A BIT
EACH PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS WERE FAR TOO WARM AND WERE
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 301800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS EXPECT CLEAR SKIES.

CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MID 80S MAY RESULT IN
SOME SCT CU AFTER 20Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 301804
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
204 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEITHER APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT TO BRING MORE THAN A LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS MORNING/S FORECAST UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST IN TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS
THIS MORNING. CENTRAL INDIANA IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A LOVELY
SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEW
POINTS/HUMIDITY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

EXPECT A SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES UNLIKELY TO
BE REACHED. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S APPEAR QUITE REASONABLE
BASED ON UPSTREAM MAX TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY. THIS WOULD BE NEAR
EXPECTED NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

ASIDE FROM TEMPERATURES...ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUE APPEARING IN THE
SHORT TERM IS A WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY
BUT DISAGREE ON ITS IMPACT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED GIVEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTTING OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A 14 POP AND NO WEATHER IN LIGHT OF
THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION IN THE LOW LEVELS
AS A RESULT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS THE WEEKEND NEARS.

CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED TOO COOL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PER
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS AND 850 TEMPS AND WERE BUMPED UP A BIT
EACH PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS WERE FAR TOO WARM AND WERE
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 301800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS EXPECT CLEAR SKIES.

CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MID 80S MAY RESULT IN
SOME SCT CU AFTER 20Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 301804
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
204 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEITHER APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT TO BRING MORE THAN A LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS MORNING/S FORECAST UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST IN TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS
THIS MORNING. CENTRAL INDIANA IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A LOVELY
SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEW
POINTS/HUMIDITY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

EXPECT A SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES UNLIKELY TO
BE REACHED. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S APPEAR QUITE REASONABLE
BASED ON UPSTREAM MAX TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY. THIS WOULD BE NEAR
EXPECTED NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

ASIDE FROM TEMPERATURES...ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUE APPEARING IN THE
SHORT TERM IS A WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY
BUT DISAGREE ON ITS IMPACT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED GIVEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTTING OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A 14 POP AND NO WEATHER IN LIGHT OF
THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION IN THE LOW LEVELS
AS A RESULT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS THE WEEKEND NEARS.

CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED TOO COOL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PER
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS AND 850 TEMPS AND WERE BUMPED UP A BIT
EACH PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS WERE FAR TOO WARM AND WERE
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 301800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS EXPECT CLEAR SKIES.

CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MID 80S MAY RESULT IN
SOME SCT CU AFTER 20Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 301645
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1245 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEITHER APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT TO BRING MORE THAN A LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS MORNING/S FORECAST UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST IN TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS
THIS MORNING. CENTRAL INDIANA IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A LOVELY
SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEW
POINTS/HUMIDITY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

EXPECT A SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES UNLIKELY TO
BE REACHED. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S APPEAR QUITE REASONABLE
BASED ON UPSTREAM MAX TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY. THIS WOULD BE NEAR
EXPECTED NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

ASIDE FROM TEMPERATURES...ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUE APPEARING IN THE
SHORT TERM IS A WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY
BUT DISAGREE ON ITS IMPACT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED GIVEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTTING OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A 14 POP AND NO WEATHER IN LIGHT OF
THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION IN THE LOW LEVELS
AS A RESULT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS THE WEEKEND NEARS.

CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED TOO COOL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PER
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS AND 850 TEMPS AND WERE BUMPED UP A BIT
EACH PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS WERE FAR TOO WARM AND WERE
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MODELS KEEP A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
ROCKIES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE DRIER SUNDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH HALF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WED AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES
EAST OUR WAY BY THEN. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS MOST PERIODS...BUT
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AFTER THAT. SUPER BLEND MAX TEMPERATURES A
BIT TOO COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE FRONT STILL TO OUR NORTH.
OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 301800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS EXPECT CLEAR SKIES.

CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MID 80S MAY RESULT IN
SOME SCT CU AFTER 20Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 301645
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1245 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEITHER APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT TO BRING MORE THAN A LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS MORNING/S FORECAST UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST IN TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS
THIS MORNING. CENTRAL INDIANA IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A LOVELY
SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEW
POINTS/HUMIDITY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

EXPECT A SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES UNLIKELY TO
BE REACHED. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S APPEAR QUITE REASONABLE
BASED ON UPSTREAM MAX TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY. THIS WOULD BE NEAR
EXPECTED NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

ASIDE FROM TEMPERATURES...ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUE APPEARING IN THE
SHORT TERM IS A WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY
BUT DISAGREE ON ITS IMPACT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED GIVEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTTING OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A 14 POP AND NO WEATHER IN LIGHT OF
THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION IN THE LOW LEVELS
AS A RESULT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS THE WEEKEND NEARS.

CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED TOO COOL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PER
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS AND 850 TEMPS AND WERE BUMPED UP A BIT
EACH PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS WERE FAR TOO WARM AND WERE
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MODELS KEEP A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
ROCKIES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE DRIER SUNDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH HALF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WED AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES
EAST OUR WAY BY THEN. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS MOST PERIODS...BUT
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AFTER THAT. SUPER BLEND MAX TEMPERATURES A
BIT TOO COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE FRONT STILL TO OUR NORTH.
OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 301800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS EXPECT CLEAR SKIES.

CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MID 80S MAY RESULT IN
SOME SCT CU AFTER 20Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 301509
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1109 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEITHER APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT TO BRING MORE THAN A LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS MORNING/S FORECAST UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST IN TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS
THIS MORNING. CENTRAL INDIANA IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A LOVELY
SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEW
POINTS/HUMIDITY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

EXPECT A SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES UNLIKELY TO
BE REACHED. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S APPEAR QUITE REASONABLE
BASED ON UPSTREAM MAX TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY. THIS WOULD BE NEAR
EXPECTED NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

ASIDE FROM TEMPERATURES...ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUE APPEARING IN THE
SHORT TERM IS A WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY
BUT DISAGREE ON ITS IMPACT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED GIVEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTTING OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A 14 POP AND NO WEATHER IN LIGHT OF
THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION IN THE LOW LEVELS
AS A RESULT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS THE WEEKEND NEARS.

CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED TOO COOL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PER
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS AND 850 TEMPS AND WERE BUMPED UP A BIT
EACH PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS WERE FAR TOO WARM AND WERE
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MODELS KEEP A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
ROCKIES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE DRIER SUNDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH HALF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WED AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES
EAST OUR WAY BY THEN. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS MOST PERIODS...BUT
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AFTER THAT. SUPER BLEND MAX TEMPERATURES A
BIT TOO COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE FRONT STILL TO OUR NORTH.
OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 301500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. VFR CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR 301200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AND LOWER
OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY AIRMASS. EXPECT
ONLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT WEST TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH





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