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000
FXUS63 KIND 200952
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
552 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEPART TODAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY
WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
THEN A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA. COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING
IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND ALSO
REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...DRY WEATHER
WILL BASICALLY PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIKELY POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM 8PM TO 2AM SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW TO SE. SPC EVEN INCLUDE
A FEW OF THE FAR REACHING NW COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WX WITH DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
OTHERWISE ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 2AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHEASTERN
REGION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
DAY SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND DRY...AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 MPH WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODELS THEN DEPICT
ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NO FORECAST ISSUES. GUIDANCE IS GOOD. NOT MUCH TO SAY. BROAD
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH EAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVER TIME. MIN TEMPS
SLOWLY CLIMB FROM UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WHILE MAX TEMPS CLIMB FROM
LOWER 70S TO UPPER 70S BY LATE WEEK. OVERALL FAIRLY CLOSE TO
CLIMATE AVERAGES AND TYPICAL EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER.

BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME FOR NEXT WEEKEND GFS STILL WAVERING BETWEEN
MODEL RUNS ON WHETHER TO BRING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
OHIO VALLEY AS WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTS FROM GULF. EURO CONFINES THIS
MOISTURE TO GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 201200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 547 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

BRIEF AND SPOTTY MVFR FOG UNTIL 201300Z MAY NOT EFFECT ALL TAF
SITES. LATE MORNING WINDS PICK UP ABOVE 10 KNOTS AND BEGIN GUSTING
ABOVE 20 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

EARLY MORNING STORMS FROM IOWA TO WISCONSIN APPEAR WELL HANDLED BY
MODELS AND LOOK FOR ARRIVAL TO KLAF BY 202100Z AND KIND BY 202200Z
THEN PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST. AFTER INITIAL HOUR-TWO HOUR ROUND OF
THUNDER... SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AFTERWORD. CLOUD DECKS AND VSBY SHOULD REMAIN VFR EXCEPT IN
STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 200952
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
552 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEPART TODAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY
WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
THEN A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA. COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING
IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND ALSO
REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...DRY WEATHER
WILL BASICALLY PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIKELY POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM 8PM TO 2AM SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW TO SE. SPC EVEN INCLUDE
A FEW OF THE FAR REACHING NW COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WX WITH DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
OTHERWISE ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 2AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHEASTERN
REGION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
DAY SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND DRY...AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 MPH WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODELS THEN DEPICT
ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NO FORECAST ISSUES. GUIDANCE IS GOOD. NOT MUCH TO SAY. BROAD
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH EAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVER TIME. MIN TEMPS
SLOWLY CLIMB FROM UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WHILE MAX TEMPS CLIMB FROM
LOWER 70S TO UPPER 70S BY LATE WEEK. OVERALL FAIRLY CLOSE TO
CLIMATE AVERAGES AND TYPICAL EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER.

BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME FOR NEXT WEEKEND GFS STILL WAVERING BETWEEN
MODEL RUNS ON WHETHER TO BRING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
OHIO VALLEY AS WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTS FROM GULF. EURO CONFINES THIS
MOISTURE TO GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 201200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 547 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

BRIEF AND SPOTTY MVFR FOG UNTIL 201300Z MAY NOT EFFECT ALL TAF
SITES. LATE MORNING WINDS PICK UP ABOVE 10 KNOTS AND BEGIN GUSTING
ABOVE 20 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

EARLY MORNING STORMS FROM IOWA TO WISCONSIN APPEAR WELL HANDLED BY
MODELS AND LOOK FOR ARRIVAL TO KLAF BY 202100Z AND KIND BY 202200Z
THEN PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST. AFTER INITIAL HOUR-TWO HOUR ROUND OF
THUNDER... SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AFTERWORD. CLOUD DECKS AND VSBY SHOULD REMAIN VFR EXCEPT IN
STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 200813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
413 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEPART TODAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY
WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
THEN A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA. COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING
IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND ALSO
REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...DRY WEATHER
WILL BASICALLY PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIKELY POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM 8PM TO 2AM SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW TO SE. SPC EVEN INCLUDE
A FEW OF THE FAR REACHING NW COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WX WITH DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
OTHERWISE ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 2AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHEASTERN
REGION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
DAY SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND DRY...AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 MPH WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODELS THEN DEPICT
ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NO FORECAST ISSUES. GUIDANCE IS GOOD. NOT MUCH TO SAY. BROAD
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH EAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVER TIME. MIN TEMPS
SLOWLY CLIMB FROM UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WHILE MAX TEMPS CLIMB FROM
LOWER 70S TO UPPER 70S BY LATE WEEK. OVERALL FAIRLY CLOSE TO
CLIMATE AVERAGES AND TYPICAL EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER.

BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME FOR NEXT WEEKEND GFS STILL WAVERING BETWEEN
MODEL RUNS ON WHETHER TO BRING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
OHIO VALLEY AS WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTS FROM GULF. EURO CONFINES THIS
MOISTURE TO GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE FOR 200600Z ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

KBMG WAS BRIEFLY AT IFR VISIBILITY EARLIER BUT HAS SINCE IMPROVED
TO 10 MILES. STILL POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY PERIOD
FROM FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KBMG...KHUF AND KLAF. AFTER SUNRISE VFR
IS EXPECTED. WITH APPROACHING COLDFRONT WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN ABOVE 10 KNOTS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS OVER
20 KTS. THUNDERSTORMS AT 200800Z FROM IOWA TO WISCONSIN STILL ON
TRACK TO ARRIVE NO EARLIER THAN 202100Z AT KLAF AND 210000Z AT
KIND.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 200643
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
243 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEPART TODAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY
WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
THEN A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA. COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING
IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND ALSO
REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...DRY WEATHER
WILL BASICALLY PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIKELY POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM 8PM TO 2AM SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW TO SE. SPC EVEN INCLUDE
A FEW OF THE FAR REACHING NW COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WX WITH DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
OTHERWISE ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 2AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHEASTERN
REGION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
DAY SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND DRY...AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 MPH WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODELS THEN DEPICT
ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NO FORECAST ISSUES. GUIDANCE IS GOOD. NOT MUCH TO SAY. BROAD
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH EAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVER TIME. MIN TEMPS
SLOWLY CLIMB FROM UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WHILE MAX TEMPS CLIMB FROM
LOWER 70S TO UPPER 70S BY LATE WEEK. OVERALL FAIRLY CLOSE TO
CLIMATE AVERAGES AND TYPICAL EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER.

BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME FOR NEXT WEEKEND GFS STILL WAVERING BETWEEN
MODEL RUNS ON WHETHER TO BRING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
OHIO VALLEY AS WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTS FROM GULF. EURO CONFINES THIS
MOISTURE TO GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

IFR FOG AT KBMG EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
OTHER SITES OVERNIGHT THOUGH ONLY FORECASTING SUCH AT KHUF FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION
LATE/.

WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE LIKELY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO THE KLAF AREA AROUND 21Z WITH
KIND AND AREAS SOUTH AROUND 00Z OR LATER. COULD BE SOME
THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE AND TIMING THAT FAR OUT.
FOR NOW ADDED A PROB30 GROUP AT NORTHERN SITES TO COVER THIS
PROBABILITY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 200613
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
213 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DEPART TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DEPARTING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO
CENTRAL INDIANA.

COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXTENDING IT/S INFLUENCE FAR WEST TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TOWARD
CENTRAL COLORADO. LIGHT EAST WINDS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA AND DEW POINTS REMAINED IN THE PLEASANT MID AND UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE STATE AND RADAR WAS
QUIET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE...SLOWLY
FLATTENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ALONG WITH A LARGE
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN OUT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING A STOP TO THE
SUBSIDENCE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALSO SHOULD RESULT IN
THE STREAMING OF SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO BEGIN TO REACH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
NONETHELESS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET-UP. GIVEN OUR WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH RISING THICKNESSES...WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND
ALSO REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO DEPART AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST ALSO
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AMID A DRY COLUMN ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUD CANNOT RULED OUT AS SUBSIDENCE
WANES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL AIM FOR PARTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY
AS FOR TEMPS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN AIM FOR HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. A BLEND OF MAV MOS MET SHOULD WORK NICELY.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A THINK BAND OF SHOWERS AND
MOISTURE WORKING ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...PROVIDING CONVERGENCE. Q VECTORS AGREE SHOWING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO. 310 ISENTROPIC SURFACE IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE...STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES...GREATER THAN 6 G/KG...PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. ALOFT...GFS SHOW A DEEPER WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH OUR OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAIL TO DEEP SATURATION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME...BUT DO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS
PWATS RISE TO OVER 1 INCH. THUS WITH MANY INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE
FOR RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF THEM...CONFIDENCE IN A LIGHT RAIN EVENT
CONTINUES TO GROW. WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE POPS FOR TO THE LIKELY OR
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE HERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

AS FOR SUNDAY POPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS AS TIMING
OF DEPARTURE OF THE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
HOWEVER THIS MUCH IS CLEAR...BY AFTERNOON GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
MUCH DRYER AIR ARRIVING IN CENTRAL INDIANA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT. THUS WILL TREND FORECAST TO DRY BY NOON ON SUNDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OR TREND COOLER THAN MAVMOS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL SUGGEST THE
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGGING ACROSS INDIANA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STRONG DRY SURFACE HIGH SHOULD STILL PREVAIL
IN A DRY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER THAN MAVMOS
AMID A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NO FORECAST ISSUES. GUIDANCE IS GOOD. NOT MUCH TO SAY. BROAD
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH EAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVER TIME. MIN TEMPS
SLOWLY CLIMB FROM UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WHILE MAX TEMPS CLIMB FROM
LOWER 70S TO UPPER 70S BY LATE WEEK. OVERALL FAIRLY CLOSE TO
CLIMATE AVERAGES AND TYPICAL EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER.

BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME FOR NEXT WEEKEND GFS STILL WAVERING BETWEEN
MODEL RUNS ON WHETHER TO BRING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
OHIO VALLEY AS WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTS FROM GULF. EURO CONFINES THIS
MOISTURE TO GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

IFR FOG AT KBMG EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
OTHER SITES OVERNIGHT THOUGH ONLY FORECASTING SUCH AT KHUF FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION
LATE/.

WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE LIKELY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO THE KLAF AREA AROUND 21Z WITH
KIND AND AREAS SOUTH AROUND 00Z OR LATER. COULD BE SOME
THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE AND TIMING THAT FAR OUT.
FOR NOW ADDED A PROB30 GROUP AT NORTHERN SITES TO COVER THIS
PROBABILITY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 200613
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
213 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DEPART TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DEPARTING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO
CENTRAL INDIANA.

COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXTENDING IT/S INFLUENCE FAR WEST TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TOWARD
CENTRAL COLORADO. LIGHT EAST WINDS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA AND DEW POINTS REMAINED IN THE PLEASANT MID AND UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE STATE AND RADAR WAS
QUIET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE...SLOWLY
FLATTENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ALONG WITH A LARGE
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN OUT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING A STOP TO THE
SUBSIDENCE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALSO SHOULD RESULT IN
THE STREAMING OF SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO BEGIN TO REACH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
NONETHELESS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET-UP. GIVEN OUR WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH RISING THICKNESSES...WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND
ALSO REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO DEPART AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST ALSO
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AMID A DRY COLUMN ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUD CANNOT RULED OUT AS SUBSIDENCE
WANES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL AIM FOR PARTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY
AS FOR TEMPS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN AIM FOR HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. A BLEND OF MAV MOS MET SHOULD WORK NICELY.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A THINK BAND OF SHOWERS AND
MOISTURE WORKING ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...PROVIDING CONVERGENCE. Q VECTORS AGREE SHOWING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO. 310 ISENTROPIC SURFACE IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE...STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES...GREATER THAN 6 G/KG...PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. ALOFT...GFS SHOW A DEEPER WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH OUR OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAIL TO DEEP SATURATION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME...BUT DO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS
PWATS RISE TO OVER 1 INCH. THUS WITH MANY INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE
FOR RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF THEM...CONFIDENCE IN A LIGHT RAIN EVENT
CONTINUES TO GROW. WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE POPS FOR TO THE LIKELY OR
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE HERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

AS FOR SUNDAY POPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS AS TIMING
OF DEPARTURE OF THE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
HOWEVER THIS MUCH IS CLEAR...BY AFTERNOON GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
MUCH DRYER AIR ARRIVING IN CENTRAL INDIANA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT. THUS WILL TREND FORECAST TO DRY BY NOON ON SUNDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OR TREND COOLER THAN MAVMOS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL SUGGEST THE
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGGING ACROSS INDIANA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STRONG DRY SURFACE HIGH SHOULD STILL PREVAIL
IN A DRY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER THAN MAVMOS
AMID A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NO FORECAST ISSUES. GUIDANCE IS GOOD. NOT MUCH TO SAY. BROAD
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH EAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVER TIME. MIN TEMPS
SLOWLY CLIMB FROM UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WHILE MAX TEMPS CLIMB FROM
LOWER 70S TO UPPER 70S BY LATE WEEK. OVERALL FAIRLY CLOSE TO
CLIMATE AVERAGES AND TYPICAL EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER.

BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME FOR NEXT WEEKEND GFS STILL WAVERING BETWEEN
MODEL RUNS ON WHETHER TO BRING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
OHIO VALLEY AS WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTS FROM GULF. EURO CONFINES THIS
MOISTURE TO GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

IFR FOG AT KBMG EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
OTHER SITES OVERNIGHT THOUGH ONLY FORECASTING SUCH AT KHUF FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION
LATE/.

WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE LIKELY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO THE KLAF AREA AROUND 21Z WITH
KIND AND AREAS SOUTH AROUND 00Z OR LATER. COULD BE SOME
THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE AND TIMING THAT FAR OUT.
FOR NOW ADDED A PROB30 GROUP AT NORTHERN SITES TO COVER THIS
PROBABILITY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 200447
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1247 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DEPART TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DEPARTING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO
CENTRAL INDIANA.

COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXTENDING IT/S INFLUENCE FAR WEST TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TOWARD
CENTRAL COLORADO. LIGHT EAST WINDS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA AND DEW POINTS REMAINED IN THE PLEASANT MID AND UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE STATE AND RADAR WAS
QUIET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE...SLOWLY
FLATTENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ALONG WITH A LARGE
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN OUT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING A STOP TO THE
SUBSIDENCE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALSO SHOULD RESULT IN
THE STREAMING OF SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO BEGIN TO REACH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
NONETHELESS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET-UP. GIVEN OUR WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH RISING THICKNESSES...WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND
ALSO REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO DEPART AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST ALSO
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AMID A DRY COLUMN ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUD CANNOT RULED OUT AS SUBSIDENCE
WANES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL AIM FOR PARTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY
AS FOR TEMPS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN AIM FOR HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. A BLEND OF MAV MOS MET SHOULD WORK NICELY.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A THINK BAND OF SHOWERS AND
MOISTURE WORKING ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...PROVIDING CONVERGENCE. Q VECTORS AGREE SHOWING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO. 310 ISENTROPIC SURFACE IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE...STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES...GREATER THAN 6 G/KG...PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. ALOFT...GFS SHOW A DEEPER WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH OUR OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAIL TO DEEP SATURATION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME...BUT DO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS
PWATS RISE TO OVER 1 INCH. THUS WITH MANY INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE
FOR RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF THEM...CONFIDENCE IN A LIGHT RAIN EVENT
CONTINUES TO GROW. WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE POPS FOR TO THE LIKELY OR
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE HERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

AS FOR SUNDAY POPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS AS TIMING
OF DEPARTURE OF THE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
HOWEVER THIS MUCH IS CLEAR...BY AFTERNOON GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
MUCH DRYER AIR ARRIVING IN CENTRAL INDIANA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT. THUS WILL TREND FORECAST TO DRY BY NOON ON SUNDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OR TREND COOLER THAN MAVMOS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL SUGGEST THE
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGGING ACROSS INDIANA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STRONG DRY SURFACE HIGH SHOULD STILL PREVAIL
IN A DRY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER THAN MAVMOS
AMID A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

IFR FOG AT KBMG EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
OTHER SITES OVERNIGHT THOUGH ONLY FORECASTING SUCH AT KHUF FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION
LATE/.

WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE LIKELY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO THE KLAF AREA AROUND 21Z WITH
KIND AND AREAS SOUTH AROUND 00Z OR LATER. COULD BE SOME
THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE AND TIMING THAT FAR OUT.
FOR NOW ADDED A PROB30 GROUP AT NORTHERN SITES TO COVER THIS
PROBABILITY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 200447
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1247 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DEPART TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DEPARTING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO
CENTRAL INDIANA.

COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXTENDING IT/S INFLUENCE FAR WEST TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TOWARD
CENTRAL COLORADO. LIGHT EAST WINDS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA AND DEW POINTS REMAINED IN THE PLEASANT MID AND UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE STATE AND RADAR WAS
QUIET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE...SLOWLY
FLATTENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ALONG WITH A LARGE
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN OUT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING A STOP TO THE
SUBSIDENCE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALSO SHOULD RESULT IN
THE STREAMING OF SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO BEGIN TO REACH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
NONETHELESS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET-UP. GIVEN OUR WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH RISING THICKNESSES...WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND
ALSO REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO DEPART AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST ALSO
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AMID A DRY COLUMN ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUD CANNOT RULED OUT AS SUBSIDENCE
WANES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL AIM FOR PARTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY
AS FOR TEMPS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN AIM FOR HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. A BLEND OF MAV MOS MET SHOULD WORK NICELY.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A THINK BAND OF SHOWERS AND
MOISTURE WORKING ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...PROVIDING CONVERGENCE. Q VECTORS AGREE SHOWING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO. 310 ISENTROPIC SURFACE IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE...STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES...GREATER THAN 6 G/KG...PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. ALOFT...GFS SHOW A DEEPER WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH OUR OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAIL TO DEEP SATURATION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME...BUT DO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS
PWATS RISE TO OVER 1 INCH. THUS WITH MANY INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE
FOR RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF THEM...CONFIDENCE IN A LIGHT RAIN EVENT
CONTINUES TO GROW. WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE POPS FOR TO THE LIKELY OR
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE HERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

AS FOR SUNDAY POPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS AS TIMING
OF DEPARTURE OF THE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
HOWEVER THIS MUCH IS CLEAR...BY AFTERNOON GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
MUCH DRYER AIR ARRIVING IN CENTRAL INDIANA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT. THUS WILL TREND FORECAST TO DRY BY NOON ON SUNDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OR TREND COOLER THAN MAVMOS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL SUGGEST THE
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGGING ACROSS INDIANA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STRONG DRY SURFACE HIGH SHOULD STILL PREVAIL
IN A DRY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER THAN MAVMOS
AMID A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

IFR FOG AT KBMG EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
OTHER SITES OVERNIGHT THOUGH ONLY FORECASTING SUCH AT KHUF FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION
LATE/.

WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE LIKELY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO THE KLAF AREA AROUND 21Z WITH
KIND AND AREAS SOUTH AROUND 00Z OR LATER. COULD BE SOME
THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE AND TIMING THAT FAR OUT.
FOR NOW ADDED A PROB30 GROUP AT NORTHERN SITES TO COVER THIS
PROBABILITY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 200223
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1023 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DEPART TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DEPARTING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO
CENTRAL INDIANA.

COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXTENDING IT/S INFLUENCE FAR WEST TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TOWARD
CENTRAL COLORADO. LIGHT EAST WINDS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA AND DEW POINTS REMAINED IN THE PLEASANT MID AND UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE STATE AND RADAR WAS
QUIET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE...SLOWLY
FLATTENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ALONG WITH A LARGE
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN OUT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING A STOP TO THE
SUBSIDENCE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALSO SHOULD RESULT IN
THE STREAMING OF SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO BEGIN TO REACH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
NONETHELESS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET-UP. GIVEN OUR WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH RISING THICKNESSES...WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND
ALSO REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO DEPART AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST ALSO
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AMID A DRY COLUMN ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUD CANNOT RULED OUT AS SUBSIDENCE
WANES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL AIM FOR PARTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY
AS FOR TEMPS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN AIM FOR HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. A BLEND OF MAV MOS MET SHOULD WORK NICELY.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A THINK BAND OF SHOWERS AND
MOISTURE WORKING ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...PROVIDING CONVERGENCE. Q VECTORS AGREE SHOWING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO. 310 ISENTROPIC SURFACE IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE...STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES...GREATER THAN 6 G/KG...PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. ALOFT...GFS SHOW A DEEPER WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH OUR OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAIL TO DEEP SATURATION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME...BUT DO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS
PWATS RISE TO OVER 1 INCH. THUS WITH MANY INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE
FOR RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF THEM...CONFIDENCE IN A LIGHT RAIN EVENT
CONTINUES TO GROW. WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE POPS FOR TO THE LIKELY OR
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE HERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

AS FOR SUNDAY POPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS AS TIMING
OF DEPARTURE OF THE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
HOWEVER THIS MUCH IS CLEAR...BY AFTERNOON GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
MUCH DRYER AIR ARRIVING IN CENTRAL INDIANA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT. THUS WILL TREND FORECAST TO DRY BY NOON ON SUNDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OR TREND COOLER THAN MAVMOS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL SUGGEST THE
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGGING ACROSS INDIANA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STRONG DRY SURFACE HIGH SHOULD STILL PREVAIL
IN A DRY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER THAN MAVMOS
AMID A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200300Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1023 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO KIND TAF BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT OUTLIER SITES OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...MAY IMPACT KLAF BY
21Z AND KIND AFTER 24Z SO HAVE ADDED VCSH AS NEEDED FOR NOW.

WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE LIKELY MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 200223
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1023 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DEPART TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DEPARTING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO
CENTRAL INDIANA.

COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXTENDING IT/S INFLUENCE FAR WEST TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TOWARD
CENTRAL COLORADO. LIGHT EAST WINDS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA AND DEW POINTS REMAINED IN THE PLEASANT MID AND UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE STATE AND RADAR WAS
QUIET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE...SLOWLY
FLATTENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ALONG WITH A LARGE
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN OUT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING A STOP TO THE
SUBSIDENCE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALSO SHOULD RESULT IN
THE STREAMING OF SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO BEGIN TO REACH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
NONETHELESS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET-UP. GIVEN OUR WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH RISING THICKNESSES...WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND
ALSO REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO DEPART AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST ALSO
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AMID A DRY COLUMN ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUD CANNOT RULED OUT AS SUBSIDENCE
WANES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL AIM FOR PARTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY
AS FOR TEMPS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN AIM FOR HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. A BLEND OF MAV MOS MET SHOULD WORK NICELY.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A THINK BAND OF SHOWERS AND
MOISTURE WORKING ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...PROVIDING CONVERGENCE. Q VECTORS AGREE SHOWING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO. 310 ISENTROPIC SURFACE IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE...STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES...GREATER THAN 6 G/KG...PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. ALOFT...GFS SHOW A DEEPER WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH OUR OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAIL TO DEEP SATURATION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME...BUT DO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS
PWATS RISE TO OVER 1 INCH. THUS WITH MANY INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE
FOR RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF THEM...CONFIDENCE IN A LIGHT RAIN EVENT
CONTINUES TO GROW. WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE POPS FOR TO THE LIKELY OR
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE HERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

AS FOR SUNDAY POPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS AS TIMING
OF DEPARTURE OF THE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
HOWEVER THIS MUCH IS CLEAR...BY AFTERNOON GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
MUCH DRYER AIR ARRIVING IN CENTRAL INDIANA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT. THUS WILL TREND FORECAST TO DRY BY NOON ON SUNDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OR TREND COOLER THAN MAVMOS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL SUGGEST THE
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGGING ACROSS INDIANA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STRONG DRY SURFACE HIGH SHOULD STILL PREVAIL
IN A DRY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER THAN MAVMOS
AMID A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200300Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1023 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO KIND TAF BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT OUTLIER SITES OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...MAY IMPACT KLAF BY
21Z AND KIND AFTER 24Z SO HAVE ADDED VCSH AS NEEDED FOR NOW.

WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE LIKELY MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 192230
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DEPART TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DEPARTING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO
CENTRAL INDIANA.

COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXTENDING IT/S INFLUENCE FAR WEST TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TOWARD
CENTRAL COLORADO. LIGHT EAST WINDS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA AND DEW POINTS REMAINED IN THE PLEASANT MID AND UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE STATE AND RADAR WAS
QUIET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE...SLOWLY
FLATTENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ALONG WITH A LARGE
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN OUT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING A STOP TO THE
SUBSIDENCE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALSO SHOULD RESULT IN
THE STREAMING OF SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO BEGIN TO REACH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
NONETHELESS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET-UP. GIVEN OUR WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH RISING THICKNESSES...WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND
ALSO REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO DEPART AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST ALSO
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AMID A DRY COLUMN ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUD CANNOT RULED OUT AS SUBSIDENCE
WANES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL AIM FOR PARTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY
AS FOR TEMPS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN AIM FOR HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. A BLEND OF MAV MOS MET SHOULD WORK NICELY.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A THINK BAND OF SHOWERS AND
MOISTURE WORKING ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...PROVIDING CONVERGENCE. Q VECTORS AGREE SHOWING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO. 310 ISENTROPIC SURFACE IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE...STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES...GREATER THAN 6 G/KG...PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. ALOFT...GFS SHOW A DEEPER WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH OUR OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAIL TO DEEP SATURATION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME...BUT DO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS
PWATS RISE TO OVER 1 INCH. THUS WITH MANY INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE
FOR RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF THEM...CONFIDENCE IN A LIGHT RAIN EVENT
CONTINUES TO GROW. WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE POPS FOR TO THE LIKELY OR
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE HERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

AS FOR SUNDAY POPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS AS TIMING
OF DEPARTURE OF THE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
HOWEVER THIS MUCH IS CLEAR...BY AFTERNOON GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
MUCH DRYER AIR ARRIVING IN CENTRAL INDIANA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT. THUS WILL TREND FORECAST TO DRY BY NOON ON SUNDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OR TREND COOLER THAN MAVMOS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL SUGGEST THE
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGGING ACROSS INDIANA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STRONG DRY SURFACE HIGH SHOULD STILL PREVAIL
IN A DRY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER THAN MAVMOS
AMID A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT OUTLIER SITES OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...MAY IMPACT KLAF BY
21Z AND KIND AFTER 24Z SO HAVE ADDED VCSH AS NEEDED FOR NOW.

WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE LIKELY MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS/50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 192230
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DEPART TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DEPARTING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO
CENTRAL INDIANA.

COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXTENDING IT/S INFLUENCE FAR WEST TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TOWARD
CENTRAL COLORADO. LIGHT EAST WINDS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA AND DEW POINTS REMAINED IN THE PLEASANT MID AND UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE STATE AND RADAR WAS
QUIET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE...SLOWLY
FLATTENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ALONG WITH A LARGE
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN OUT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING A STOP TO THE
SUBSIDENCE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALSO SHOULD RESULT IN
THE STREAMING OF SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO BEGIN TO REACH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
NONETHELESS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET-UP. GIVEN OUR WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH RISING THICKNESSES...WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND
ALSO REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO DEPART AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST ALSO
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AMID A DRY COLUMN ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUD CANNOT RULED OUT AS SUBSIDENCE
WANES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL AIM FOR PARTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY
AS FOR TEMPS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN AIM FOR HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. A BLEND OF MAV MOS MET SHOULD WORK NICELY.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A THINK BAND OF SHOWERS AND
MOISTURE WORKING ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...PROVIDING CONVERGENCE. Q VECTORS AGREE SHOWING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO. 310 ISENTROPIC SURFACE IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE...STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES...GREATER THAN 6 G/KG...PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. ALOFT...GFS SHOW A DEEPER WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH OUR OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAIL TO DEEP SATURATION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME...BUT DO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS
PWATS RISE TO OVER 1 INCH. THUS WITH MANY INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE
FOR RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF THEM...CONFIDENCE IN A LIGHT RAIN EVENT
CONTINUES TO GROW. WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE POPS FOR TO THE LIKELY OR
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE HERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

AS FOR SUNDAY POPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS AS TIMING
OF DEPARTURE OF THE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
HOWEVER THIS MUCH IS CLEAR...BY AFTERNOON GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
MUCH DRYER AIR ARRIVING IN CENTRAL INDIANA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT. THUS WILL TREND FORECAST TO DRY BY NOON ON SUNDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OR TREND COOLER THAN MAVMOS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL SUGGEST THE
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGGING ACROSS INDIANA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STRONG DRY SURFACE HIGH SHOULD STILL PREVAIL
IN A DRY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER THAN MAVMOS
AMID A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT OUTLIER SITES OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...MAY IMPACT KLAF BY
21Z AND KIND AFTER 24Z SO HAVE ADDED VCSH AS NEEDED FOR NOW.

WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE LIKELY MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS/50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 192022
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
422 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DEPART TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DEPARTING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO
CENTRAL INDIANA.

COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXTENDING IT/S INFLUENCE FAR WEST TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TOWARD
CENTRAL COLORADO. LIGHT EAST WINDS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA AND DEW POINTS REMAINED IN THE PLEASANT MID AND UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE STATE AND RADAR WAS
QUIET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE...SLOWLY
FLATTENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ALONG WITH A LARGE
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN OUT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING A STOP TO THE
SUBSIDENCE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALSO SHOULD RESULT IN
THE STREAMING OF SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO BEGIN TO REACH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
NONETHELESS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET-UP. GIVEN OUR WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH RISING THICKNESSES...WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND
ALSO REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO DEPART AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST ALSO
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AMID A DRY COLUMN ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUD CANNOT RULED OUT AS SUBSIDENCE
WANES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL AIM FOR PARTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY
AS FOR TEMPS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN AIM FOR HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. A BLEND OF MAV MOS MET SHOULD WORK NICELY.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A THINK BAND OF SHOWERS AND
MOISTURE WORKING ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...PROVIDING CONVERGENCE. Q VECTORS AGREE SHOWING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO. 310 ISENTROPIC SURFACE IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE...STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES...GREATER THAN 6 G/KG...PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. ALOFT...GFS SHOW A DEEPER WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH OUR OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAIL TO DEEP SATURATION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME...BUT DO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS
PWATS RISE TO OVER 1 INCH. THUS WITH MANY INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE
FOR RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF THEM...CONFIDENCE IN A LIGHT RAIN EVENT
CONTINUES TO GROW. WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE POPS FOR TO THE LIKELY OR
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE HERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

AS FOR SUNDAY POPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS AS TIMING
OF DEPARTURE OF THE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
HOWEVER THIS MUCH IS CLEAR...BY AFTERNOON GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
MUCH DRYER AIR ARRIVING IN CENTRAL INDIANA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT. THUS WILL TREND FORECAST TO DRY BY NOON ON SUNDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OR TREND COOLER THAN MAVMOS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL SUGGEST THE
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGGING ACROSS INDIANA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STRONG DRY SURFACE HIGH SHOULD STILL PREVAIL
IN A DRY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER THAN MAVMOS
AMID A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 192100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

KIND TAF ONLY NEEDED MINOR TWEAK TO WIND DIRECTION. FORECAST OK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH 200600Z.

SURFACE WINDS 110-130 AT 9-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 6 KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS/50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 191818
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DEPART TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DEPARTING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO
CENTRAL INDIANA.

COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXTENDING IT/S INFLUENCE FAR WEST TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TOWARD
CENTRAL COLORADO. LIGHT EAST WINDS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA AND DEW POINTS REMAINED IN THE PLEASANT MID AND UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE STATE AND RADAR WAS
QUIET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE...SLOWLY
FLATTENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ALONG WITH A LARGE
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN OUT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING A STOP TO THE
SUBSIDENCE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALSO SHOULD RESULT IN
THE STREAMING OF SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO BEGIN TO REACH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
NONETHELESS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET-UP. GIVEN OUR WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH RISING THICKNESSES...WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND
ALSO REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO DEPART AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST ALSO
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AMID A DRY COLUMN ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUD CANNOT RULED OUT AS SUBSIDENCE
WANES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL AIM FOR PARTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY
AS FOR TEMPS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN AIM FOR HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. A BLEND OF MAV MOS MET SHOULD WORK NICELY.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A THINK BAND OF SHOWERS AND
MOISTURE WORKING ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...PROVIDING CONVERGENCE. Q VECTORS AGREE SHOWING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERENCE ALSO. 310 ISENTROPIC SURFACE IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE...STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES...GREATER THAN 6 G/KG...PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. ALOFT...GFS SHOW A DEEPER WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH OUR OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAIL TO DEEP SATURATION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME...BUT DO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS
PWATS RISE TO OVER 1 INCH. THUS WITH MANY INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE
FOR RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF THEM...CONFIDENCE IN A LIGHT RAIN EVENT
CONTINUES TO GROW. WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE POPS FOR TO THE LIKELY OR
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE HERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

AS FOR SUNDAY POPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS AS TIMING
OF DEPARTURE OF THE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
HOWEVER THIS MUCH IS CLEAR...BY AFTERNOON GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
MUCH DRYER AIR ARRIVING IN CENTRAL INDIANA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT. THUS WILL TREND FORECAST TO DRY BY NOON ON SUNDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OR TREND COOLER THAN MAVMOS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL SUGGEST THE
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGGING ACROSS INDIANA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STRONG DRY SURFACE HIGH SHOULD STILL PREVAIL
IN A DRY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER THAN MAVMOS
AMID A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH 200600Z.

SURFACE WINDS 110-130 AT 9-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 6 KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 191818
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DEPART TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DEPARTING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO
CENTRAL INDIANA.

COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXTENDING IT/S INFLUENCE FAR WEST TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TOWARD
CENTRAL COLORADO. LIGHT EAST WINDS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA AND DEW POINTS REMAINED IN THE PLEASANT MID AND UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE STATE AND RADAR WAS
QUIET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE...SLOWLY
FLATTENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ALONG WITH A LARGE
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN OUT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING A STOP TO THE
SUBSIDENCE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALSO SHOULD RESULT IN
THE STREAMING OF SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO BEGIN TO REACH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
NONETHELESS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET-UP. GIVEN OUR WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH RISING THICKNESSES...WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND
ALSO REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO DEPART AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST ALSO
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AMID A DRY COLUMN ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUD CANNOT RULED OUT AS SUBSIDENCE
WANES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL AIM FOR PARTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY
AS FOR TEMPS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN AIM FOR HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. A BLEND OF MAV MOS MET SHOULD WORK NICELY.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A THINK BAND OF SHOWERS AND
MOISTURE WORKING ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...PROVIDING CONVERGENCE. Q VECTORS AGREE SHOWING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERENCE ALSO. 310 ISENTROPIC SURFACE IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE...STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES...GREATER THAN 6 G/KG...PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. ALOFT...GFS SHOW A DEEPER WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH OUR OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAIL TO DEEP SATURATION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME...BUT DO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS
PWATS RISE TO OVER 1 INCH. THUS WITH MANY INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE
FOR RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF THEM...CONFIDENCE IN A LIGHT RAIN EVENT
CONTINUES TO GROW. WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE POPS FOR TO THE LIKELY OR
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE HERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

AS FOR SUNDAY POPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS AS TIMING
OF DEPARTURE OF THE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
HOWEVER THIS MUCH IS CLEAR...BY AFTERNOON GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
MUCH DRYER AIR ARRIVING IN CENTRAL INDIANA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT. THUS WILL TREND FORECAST TO DRY BY NOON ON SUNDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OR TREND COOLER THAN MAVMOS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL SUGGEST THE
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGGING ACROSS INDIANA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STRONG DRY SURFACE HIGH SHOULD STILL PREVAIL
IN A DRY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER THAN MAVMOS
AMID A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH 200600Z.

SURFACE WINDS 110-130 AT 9-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 6 KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 191646
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1243 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN. ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS INDIANA AND INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE
FLOW WAS IN PLACE AND DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE COMFORTABLE
UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE OHIO VALLEY.

FORECAST SOUNDING REMAIN QUITE DRY AS INDIANA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE EARLIER MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE UNREACHABLE ONCE AGAIN...THUS NO CU IS
EXPECTED. THUS WILL AIM FOR SUNNY SKIES. GIVEN OUR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THICKNESSES AND WARMER 850MB TEMPS WILL TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS FOR
LOWS AVERAGING MID 50S. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE SHORT TERM AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF FARTHER TO THE EAST AND
CENTRAL INDIANA RECEIVES SOME RETURN FLOW ON THE FORM OF SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. ONCE AGAIN GUIDANCE IS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF HIGHS AROUND 80 TO LOW 80S. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLE
SOME SHOWER REMNANTS FROM THE FROPA WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES TIL 09Z...WHEN THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO STALL/WASH OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WARMER THAN MOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS INDICATE THE COMING WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT
ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY STRETCH FOR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND WILL CARRY
NO POPS THROUGHOUT.

THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS INDICATE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...BUT GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALIZATION
HANDLED THIS WELL AND FEW TWEAKS WERE REQUIRED.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH 200600Z.

SURFACE WINDS 110-130 AT 9-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 6 KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 191646
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1243 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN. ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS INDIANA AND INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE
FLOW WAS IN PLACE AND DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE COMFORTABLE
UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE OHIO VALLEY.

FORECAST SOUNDING REMAIN QUITE DRY AS INDIANA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE EARLIER MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE UNREACHABLE ONCE AGAIN...THUS NO CU IS
EXPECTED. THUS WILL AIM FOR SUNNY SKIES. GIVEN OUR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THICKNESSES AND WARMER 850MB TEMPS WILL TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS FOR
LOWS AVERAGING MID 50S. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE SHORT TERM AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF FARTHER TO THE EAST AND
CENTRAL INDIANA RECEIVES SOME RETURN FLOW ON THE FORM OF SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. ONCE AGAIN GUIDANCE IS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF HIGHS AROUND 80 TO LOW 80S. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLE
SOME SHOWER REMNANTS FROM THE FROPA WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES TIL 09Z...WHEN THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO STALL/WASH OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WARMER THAN MOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS INDICATE THE COMING WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT
ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY STRETCH FOR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND WILL CARRY
NO POPS THROUGHOUT.

THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS INDICATE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...BUT GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALIZATION
HANDLED THIS WELL AND FEW TWEAKS WERE REQUIRED.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH 200600Z.

SURFACE WINDS 110-130 AT 9-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 6 KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 191421
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN. ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS INDIANA AND INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE
FLOW WAS IN PLACE AND DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE COMFORTABLE
UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE OHIO VALLEY.

FORECAST SOUNDING REMAIN QUITE DRY AS INDIANA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE EARLIER MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE UNREACHABLE ONCE AGAIN...THUS NO CU IS
EXPECTED. THUS WILL AIM FOR SUNNY SKIES. GIVEN OUR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THICKNESSES AND WARMER 850MB TEMPS WILL TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS FOR
LOWS AVERAGING MID 50S. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE SHORT TERM AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF FARTHER TO THE EAST AND
CENTRAL INDIANA RECEIVES SOME RETURN FLOW ON THE FORM OF SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. ONCE AGAIN GUIDANCE IS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF HIGHS AROUND 80 TO LOW 80S. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLE
SOME SHOWER REMNANTS FROM THE FROPA WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES TIL 09Z...WHEN THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO STALL/WASH OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WARMER THAN MOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS INDICATE THE COMING WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT
ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY STRETCH FOR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND WILL CARRY
NO POPS THROUGHOUT.

THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS INDICATE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...BUT GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALIZATION
HANDLED THIS WELL AND FEW TWEAKS WERE REQUIRED.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR FOG
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT BMG.

FOG HAS BEEN MUCH LESS PREVALENT THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...OR THAN
WOULD BE EXPECTED GIVEN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 191356
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
956 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN. ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS INDIANA AND INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE
FLOW WAS IN PLACE AND DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE COMFORTABLE
UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE OHIO VALLEY.

FORECAST SOUNDING REMAIN QUITE DRY AS INDIANA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE EARLIER MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE UNREACHABLE ONCE AGAIN...THUS NO CU IS
EXPECTED. THUS WILL AIM FOR SUNNY SKIES. GIVEN OUR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THICKNESSES AND WARMER 850MB TEMPS WILL TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS FOR
LOWS AVERAGING MID 50S. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE SHORT TERM AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF FARTHER TO THE EAST AND
CENTRAL INDIANA RECEIVES SOME RETURN FLOW ON THE FORM OF SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. ONCE AGAIN GUIDANCE IS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF HIGHS AROUND 80 TO LOW 80S. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLE
SOME SHOWER REMNANTS FROM THE FROPA WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES TIL 09Z...WHEN THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO STALL/WASH OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WARMER THAN MOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS INDICATE THE COMING WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT
ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY STRETCH FOR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND WILL CARRY
NO POPS THROUGHOUT.

THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS INDICATE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...BUT GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALIZATION
HANDLED THIS WELL AND FEW TWEAKS WERE REQUIRED.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR FOG
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT BMG.

FOG HAS BEEN MUCH LESS PREVALENT THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...OR THAN
WOULD BE EXPECTED GIVEN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 191356
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
956 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN. ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS INDIANA AND INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE
FLOW WAS IN PLACE AND DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE COMFORTABLE
UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE OHIO VALLEY.

FORECAST SOUNDING REMAIN QUITE DRY AS INDIANA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE EARLIER MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE UNREACHABLE ONCE AGAIN...THUS NO CU IS
EXPECTED. THUS WILL AIM FOR SUNNY SKIES. GIVEN OUR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THICKNESSES AND WARMER 850MB TEMPS WILL TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS FOR
LOWS AVERAGING MID 50S. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE SHORT TERM AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF FARTHER TO THE EAST AND
CENTRAL INDIANA RECEIVES SOME RETURN FLOW ON THE FORM OF SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. ONCE AGAIN GUIDANCE IS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF HIGHS AROUND 80 TO LOW 80S. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLE
SOME SHOWER REMNANTS FROM THE FROPA WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES TIL 09Z...WHEN THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO STALL/WASH OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WARMER THAN MOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS INDICATE THE COMING WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT
ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY STRETCH FOR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND WILL CARRY
NO POPS THROUGHOUT.

THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS INDICATE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...BUT GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALIZATION
HANDLED THIS WELL AND FEW TWEAKS WERE REQUIRED.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR FOG
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT BMG.

FOG HAS BEEN MUCH LESS PREVALENT THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...OR THAN
WOULD BE EXPECTED GIVEN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 191038
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
638 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN. ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

YET ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST EASTWARD OF THE REGION BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STILL FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...HOWEVER SHOULD BE THE WARMEST THE AREA HAS SEEN IN
ALMOST A WEEK. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SO USED A
BLEND WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS FOR
LOWS AVERAGING MID 50S. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE SHORT TERM AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF FARTHER TO THE EAST AND
CENTRAL INDIANA RECEIVES SOME RETURN FLOW ON THE FORM OF SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. ONCE AGAIN GUIDANCE IS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF HIGHS AROUND 80 TO LOW 80S. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLE
SOME SHOWER REMNANTS FROM THE FROPA WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES TIL 09Z...WHEN THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO STALL/WASH OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WARMER THAN MOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS INDICATE THE COMING WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT
ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY STRETCH FOR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND WILL CARRY
NO POPS THROUGHOUT.

THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS INDICATE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...BUT GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALIZATION
HANDLED THIS WELL AND FEW TWEAKS WERE REQUIRED.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR FOG
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT BMG.

FOG HAS BEEN MUCH LESS PREVALENT THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...OR THAN
WOULD BE EXPECTED GIVEN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 191038
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
638 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN. ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

YET ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST EASTWARD OF THE REGION BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STILL FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...HOWEVER SHOULD BE THE WARMEST THE AREA HAS SEEN IN
ALMOST A WEEK. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SO USED A
BLEND WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS FOR
LOWS AVERAGING MID 50S. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE SHORT TERM AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF FARTHER TO THE EAST AND
CENTRAL INDIANA RECEIVES SOME RETURN FLOW ON THE FORM OF SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. ONCE AGAIN GUIDANCE IS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF HIGHS AROUND 80 TO LOW 80S. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLE
SOME SHOWER REMNANTS FROM THE FROPA WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES TIL 09Z...WHEN THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO STALL/WASH OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WARMER THAN MOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS INDICATE THE COMING WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT
ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY STRETCH FOR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND WILL CARRY
NO POPS THROUGHOUT.

THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS INDICATE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...BUT GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALIZATION
HANDLED THIS WELL AND FEW TWEAKS WERE REQUIRED.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR FOG
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT BMG.

FOG HAS BEEN MUCH LESS PREVALENT THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...OR THAN
WOULD BE EXPECTED GIVEN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 190713
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
313 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN. ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

YET ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST EASTWARD OF THE REGION BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STILL FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...HOWEVER SHOULD BE THE WARMEST THE AREA HAS SEEN IN
ALMOST A WEEK. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SO USED A
BLEND WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS FOR
LOWS AVERAGING MID 50S. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE SHORT TERM AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF FARTHER TO THE EAST AND
CENTRAL INDIANA RECEIVES SOME RETURN FLOW ON THE FORM OF SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. ONCE AGAIN GUIDANCE IS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF HIGHS AROUND 80 TO LOW 80S. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLE
SOME SHOWER REMNANTS FROM THE FROPA WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES TIL 09Z...WHEN THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO STALL/WASH OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WARMER THAN MOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS INDICATE THE COMING WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT
ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY STRETCH FOR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND WILL CARRY
NO POPS THROUGHOUT.

THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS INDICATE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...BUT GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALIZATION
HANDLED THIS WELL AND FEW TWEAKS WERE REQUIRED.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MVFR FOG EXPECTED AT ALL BUT KIND OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT
KIND OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BUT WITH DRYING
TODAY FEEL ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10KT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 190713
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
313 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN. ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

YET ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST EASTWARD OF THE REGION BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STILL FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...HOWEVER SHOULD BE THE WARMEST THE AREA HAS SEEN IN
ALMOST A WEEK. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SO USED A
BLEND WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS FOR
LOWS AVERAGING MID 50S. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE SHORT TERM AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF FARTHER TO THE EAST AND
CENTRAL INDIANA RECEIVES SOME RETURN FLOW ON THE FORM OF SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. ONCE AGAIN GUIDANCE IS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF HIGHS AROUND 80 TO LOW 80S. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLE
SOME SHOWER REMNANTS FROM THE FROPA WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES TIL 09Z...WHEN THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO STALL/WASH OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WARMER THAN MOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS INDICATE THE COMING WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT
ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY STRETCH FOR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND WILL CARRY
NO POPS THROUGHOUT.

THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS INDICATE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...BUT GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALIZATION
HANDLED THIS WELL AND FEW TWEAKS WERE REQUIRED.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MVFR FOG EXPECTED AT ALL BUT KIND OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT
KIND OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BUT WITH DRYING
TODAY FEEL ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10KT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 190633
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA TONIGHT. A RIDGE ALOFT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS INDIANA
AND THE OHIO VALLEY. COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SUBSIDENCE. THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

GIVEN OUR EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S WILL TREND LOWS AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE GIVEN OUR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND FLATTEN THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING ANY UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OUT TO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE WEST...ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS.
THUS WILL USE A DRY FORECAST UNTIL THEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB DURING THIS TIME. THUS WILL
TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MAV EACH DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FAIL TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION...BUT DO NOT SHOW A COMPLETELY DRY
COLUMN EITHER. 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
ARRIVING ALONG THE SURFACE...OVER 6 G/KG...HOWEVER ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS MARGINAL TO POOR. SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS VERY GOOD HOWEVER
AS A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SHARP TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
THUS EXPECT AT LEAST SOME KING OF LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO BREAK
OUT. WILL TREND POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY CATEGORIES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COOLER THAN MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS INDICATE THE COMING WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT
ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY STRETCH FOR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND WILL CARRY
NO POPS THROUGHOUT.

THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS INDICATE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...BUT GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALIZATION
HANDLED THIS WELL AND FEW TWEAKS WERE REQUIRED.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MVFR FOG EXPECTED AT ALL BUT KIND OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT
KIND OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BUT WITH DRYING
TODAY FEEL ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 190633
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA TONIGHT. A RIDGE ALOFT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS INDIANA
AND THE OHIO VALLEY. COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SUBSIDENCE. THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

GIVEN OUR EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S WILL TREND LOWS AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE GIVEN OUR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND FLATTEN THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING ANY UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OUT TO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE WEST...ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS.
THUS WILL USE A DRY FORECAST UNTIL THEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB DURING THIS TIME. THUS WILL
TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MAV EACH DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FAIL TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION...BUT DO NOT SHOW A COMPLETELY DRY
COLUMN EITHER. 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
ARRIVING ALONG THE SURFACE...OVER 6 G/KG...HOWEVER ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS MARGINAL TO POOR. SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS VERY GOOD HOWEVER
AS A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SHARP TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
THUS EXPECT AT LEAST SOME KING OF LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO BREAK
OUT. WILL TREND POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY CATEGORIES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COOLER THAN MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS INDICATE THE COMING WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT
ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY STRETCH FOR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND WILL CARRY
NO POPS THROUGHOUT.

THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS INDICATE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...BUT GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALIZATION
HANDLED THIS WELL AND FEW TWEAKS WERE REQUIRED.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MVFR FOG EXPECTED AT ALL BUT KIND OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT
KIND OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BUT WITH DRYING
TODAY FEEL ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 190501
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
101 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA TONIGHT. A RIDGE ALOFT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS INDIANA
AND THE OHIO VALLEY. COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SUBSIDENCE. THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

GIVEN OUR EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S WILL TREND LOWS AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE GIVEN OUR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND FLATTEN THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING ANY UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OUT TO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE WEST...ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS.
THUS WILL USE A DRY FORECAST UNTIL THEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB DURING THIS TIME. THUS WILL
TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MAV EACH DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FAIL TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION...BUT DO NOT SHOW A COMPLETELY DRY
COLUMN EITHER. 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
ARRIVING ALONG THE SURFACE...OVER 6 G/KG...HOWEVER ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS MARGINAL TO POOR. SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS VERY GOOD HOWEVER
AS A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SHARP TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
THUS EXPECT AT LEAST SOME KING OF LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO BREAK
OUT. WILL TREND POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY CATEGORIES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COOLER THAN MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. APPEARS THIS TROUGH WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AS THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST HEIGHTS WILL RISE
QUITE A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF PERIOD AS TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.

FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MVFR FOG EXPECTED AT ALL BUT KIND OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT
KIND OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BUT WITH DRYING
TODAY FEEL ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 190501
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
101 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA TONIGHT. A RIDGE ALOFT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS INDIANA
AND THE OHIO VALLEY. COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SUBSIDENCE. THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

GIVEN OUR EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S WILL TREND LOWS AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE GIVEN OUR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND FLATTEN THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING ANY UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OUT TO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE WEST...ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS.
THUS WILL USE A DRY FORECAST UNTIL THEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB DURING THIS TIME. THUS WILL
TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MAV EACH DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FAIL TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION...BUT DO NOT SHOW A COMPLETELY DRY
COLUMN EITHER. 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
ARRIVING ALONG THE SURFACE...OVER 6 G/KG...HOWEVER ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS MARGINAL TO POOR. SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS VERY GOOD HOWEVER
AS A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SHARP TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
THUS EXPECT AT LEAST SOME KING OF LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO BREAK
OUT. WILL TREND POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY CATEGORIES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COOLER THAN MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. APPEARS THIS TROUGH WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AS THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST HEIGHTS WILL RISE
QUITE A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF PERIOD AS TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.

FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MVFR FOG EXPECTED AT ALL BUT KIND OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT
KIND OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BUT WITH DRYING
TODAY FEEL ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 190226
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA TONIGHT. A RIDGE ALOFT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS INDIANA
AND THE OHIO VALLEY. COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SUBSIDENCE. THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

GIVEN OUR EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S WILL TREND LOWS AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE GIVEN OUR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND FLATTEN THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING ANY UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OUT TO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE WEST...ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS.
THUS WILL USE A DRY FORECAST UNTIL THEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB DURING THIS TIME. THUS WILL
TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MAV EACH DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FAIL TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION...BUT DO NOT SHOW A COMPLETELY DRY
COLUMN EITHER. 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
ARRIVING ALONG THE SURFACE...OVER 6 G/KG...HOWEVER ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS MARGINAL TO POOR. SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS VERY GOOD HOWEVER
AS A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SHARP TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
THUS EXPECT AT LEAST SOME KING OF LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO BREAK
OUT. WILL TREND POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY CATEGORIES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COOLER THAN MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. APPEARS THIS TROUGH WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AS THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST HEIGHTS WILL RISE
QUITE A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF PERIOD AS TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.

FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190300Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1026 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

KIND TAF IS GOOD. NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT KIND OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT
KIND TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BUT WITH DRYING
TODAY FEEL ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT MOST SITES.

OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 190226
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA TONIGHT. A RIDGE ALOFT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS INDIANA
AND THE OHIO VALLEY. COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SUBSIDENCE. THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

GIVEN OUR EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S WILL TREND LOWS AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE GIVEN OUR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND FLATTEN THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING ANY UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OUT TO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE WEST...ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS.
THUS WILL USE A DRY FORECAST UNTIL THEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB DURING THIS TIME. THUS WILL
TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MAV EACH DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FAIL TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION...BUT DO NOT SHOW A COMPLETELY DRY
COLUMN EITHER. 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
ARRIVING ALONG THE SURFACE...OVER 6 G/KG...HOWEVER ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS MARGINAL TO POOR. SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS VERY GOOD HOWEVER
AS A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SHARP TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
THUS EXPECT AT LEAST SOME KING OF LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO BREAK
OUT. WILL TREND POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY CATEGORIES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COOLER THAN MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. APPEARS THIS TROUGH WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AS THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST HEIGHTS WILL RISE
QUITE A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF PERIOD AS TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.

FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190300Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1026 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

KIND TAF IS GOOD. NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT KIND OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT
KIND TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BUT WITH DRYING
TODAY FEEL ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT MOST SITES.

OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 182230
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA TONIGHT. A RIDGE ALOFT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS INDIANA
AND THE OHIO VALLEY. COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SUBSIDENCE. THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

GIVEN OUR EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S WILL TREND LOWS AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE GIVEN OUR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND FLATTEN THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING ANY UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OUT TO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE WEST...ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS.
THUS WILL USE A DRY FORECAST UNTIL THEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB DURING THIS TIME. THUS WILL
TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MAV EACH DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FAIL TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION...BUT DO NOT SHOW A COMPLETELY DRY
COLUMN EITHER. 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
ARRIVING ALONG THE SURFACE...OVER 6 G/KG...HOWEVER ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS MARGINAL TO POOR. SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS VERY GOOD HOWEVER
AS A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SHARP TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
THUS EXPECT AT LEAST SOME KING OF LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO BREAK
OUT. WILL TREND POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY CATEGORIES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COOLER THAN MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. APPEARS THIS TROUGH WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AS THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST HEIGHTS WILL RISE
QUITE A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF PERIOD AS TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.

FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT KIND OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT
KIND TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BUT WITH DRYING
TODAY FEEL ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT MOST SITES.

OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 182230
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA TONIGHT. A RIDGE ALOFT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS INDIANA
AND THE OHIO VALLEY. COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SUBSIDENCE. THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

GIVEN OUR EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S WILL TREND LOWS AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE GIVEN OUR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND FLATTEN THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING ANY UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OUT TO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE WEST...ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS.
THUS WILL USE A DRY FORECAST UNTIL THEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB DURING THIS TIME. THUS WILL
TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MAV EACH DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FAIL TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION...BUT DO NOT SHOW A COMPLETELY DRY
COLUMN EITHER. 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
ARRIVING ALONG THE SURFACE...OVER 6 G/KG...HOWEVER ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS MARGINAL TO POOR. SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS VERY GOOD HOWEVER
AS A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SHARP TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
THUS EXPECT AT LEAST SOME KING OF LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO BREAK
OUT. WILL TREND POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY CATEGORIES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COOLER THAN MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. APPEARS THIS TROUGH WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AS THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST HEIGHTS WILL RISE
QUITE A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF PERIOD AS TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.

FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT KIND OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT
KIND TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BUT WITH DRYING
TODAY FEEL ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT MOST SITES.

OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 182027
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
427 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA TONIGHT. A RIDGE ALOFT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS INDIANA
AND THE OHIO VALLEY. COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUBSIDENCE
...THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS.

GIVEN OUR EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S WILL TREND LOWS AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE GIVEN OUR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND FLATTEN THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING ANY UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OUT TO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE WEST...ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS.
THUS WILL USE A DRY FORECAST UNTIL THEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB DURING THIS TIME. THUS WILL
TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MAV EACH DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FAIL TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION...BUT DO NOT SHOW A COMPLETELY DRY
COLUMN EITHER. 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
ARRIVING ALONG THE SURFACE...OVER 6 G/KG...HOWEVER ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS MARGINAL TO POOR. SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS VERY GOOD HOWEVER
AS A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SHARP TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
THUS EXPECT AT LEAST SOME KING OF LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO BREAK
OUT. WILL TREND POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY CATEGORIES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COOLER THAN MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. APPEARS THIS TROUGH WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AS THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST HEIGHTS WILL RISE
QUITE A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF PERIOD AS TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.

FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 182100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

ONLY TWEAKED KIND TAF. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SCATTERED DIURNAL CLOUD COVER BASED AROUND 040 EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET.

BASED ON EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES...PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP IN THE RURAL AREAS TOWARDS 190600Z.

SURFACE WINDS 050-070 AT 6-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO 6
KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 181813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
213 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA TONIGHT. A RIDGE ALOFT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS INDIANA
AND THE OHIO VALLEY. COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUBSIDENCE
...THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS.

GIVEN OUR EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S WILL TREND LOWS AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE GIVEN OUR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND FLATTEN THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING ANY UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OUT TO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE WEST...ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS.
THUS WILL USE A DRY FORECAST UNTIL THEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB DURING THIS TIME. THUS WILL
TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MAV EACH DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FAIL TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION...BUT DO NOT SHOW A COMPLETELY DRY
COLUMN EITHER. 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
ARRIVING ALONG THE SURFACE...OVER 6 G/KG...HOWEVER ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS MARGINAL TO POOR. SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS VERY GOOD HOWEVER
AS A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SHARP TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
THUS EXPECT AT LEAST SOME KING OF LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO BREAK
OUT. WILL TREND POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY CATEGORIES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COOLER THAN MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. APPEARS THIS TROUGH WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AS THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST HEIGHTS WILL RISE
QUITE A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF PERIOD AS TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.

FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 181800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SCATTERED DIURNAL CLOUD COVER BASED AROUND 040 EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET.

BASED ON EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES...PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP IN THE RURAL AREAS TOWARDS 190600Z.

SURFACE WINDS 050-070 AT 6-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO 6
KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 181813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
213 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA TONIGHT. A RIDGE ALOFT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS INDIANA
AND THE OHIO VALLEY. COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUBSIDENCE
...THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS.

GIVEN OUR EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S WILL TREND LOWS AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE GIVEN OUR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND FLATTEN THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING ANY UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OUT TO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE WEST...ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS.
THUS WILL USE A DRY FORECAST UNTIL THEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB DURING THIS TIME. THUS WILL
TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MAV EACH DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FAIL TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION...BUT DO NOT SHOW A COMPLETELY DRY
COLUMN EITHER. 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
ARRIVING ALONG THE SURFACE...OVER 6 G/KG...HOWEVER ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS MARGINAL TO POOR. SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS VERY GOOD HOWEVER
AS A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SHARP TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
THUS EXPECT AT LEAST SOME KING OF LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO BREAK
OUT. WILL TREND POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY CATEGORIES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COOLER THAN MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. APPEARS THIS TROUGH WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AS THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST HEIGHTS WILL RISE
QUITE A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF PERIOD AS TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.

FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 181800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SCATTERED DIURNAL CLOUD COVER BASED AROUND 040 EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET.

BASED ON EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES...PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP IN THE RURAL AREAS TOWARDS 190600Z.

SURFACE WINDS 050-070 AT 6-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO 6
KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 181805
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
205 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA TONIGHT. A RIDGE ALOFT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS INDIANA
AND THE OHIO VALLEY. COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUBSIDENCE
...THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS.

GIVEN OUR EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S WILL TREND LOWS AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE GIVEN OUR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND FLATTEN THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING ANY UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OUT TO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE WEST...ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS.
THUS WILL USE A DRY FORECAST UNTIL THEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB DURING THIS TIME. THUS WILL
TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MAV EACH DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FAIL TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION...BUT DO NOT SHOW A COMPLETELY DRY
COLUMN EITHER. 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
ARRIVING ALONG THE SURFACE...OVER 6 G/KG...HOWEVER ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS MARGINAL TO POOR. SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS VERY GOOD HOWEVER
AS A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SHARP TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
THUS EXPECT AT LEAST SOME KING OF LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO BREAK
OUT. WILL TREND POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY CATEGORIES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COOLER THAN MEXMOS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE SO TOOK OUT ANY LINGERING POPS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY WITH UPPER RIDGING
OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 181800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SCATTERED DIURNAL CLOUD COVER BASED AROUND 040 EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET.

BASED ON EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES...PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP IN THE RURAL AREAS TOWARDS 190600Z.

SURFACE WINDS 050-070 AT 6-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO 6
KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 181805
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
205 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA TONIGHT. A RIDGE ALOFT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS INDIANA
AND THE OHIO VALLEY. COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUBSIDENCE
...THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS.

GIVEN OUR EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S WILL TREND LOWS AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE GIVEN OUR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND FLATTEN THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING ANY UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OUT TO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE WEST...ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS.
THUS WILL USE A DRY FORECAST UNTIL THEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB DURING THIS TIME. THUS WILL
TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MAV EACH DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FAIL TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION...BUT DO NOT SHOW A COMPLETELY DRY
COLUMN EITHER. 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
ARRIVING ALONG THE SURFACE...OVER 6 G/KG...HOWEVER ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS MARGINAL TO POOR. SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS VERY GOOD HOWEVER
AS A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SHARP TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
THUS EXPECT AT LEAST SOME KING OF LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO BREAK
OUT. WILL TREND POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY CATEGORIES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COOLER THAN MEXMOS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE SO TOOK OUT ANY LINGERING POPS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY WITH UPPER RIDGING
OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 181800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SCATTERED DIURNAL CLOUD COVER BASED AROUND 040 EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET.

BASED ON EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES...PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP IN THE RURAL AREAS TOWARDS 190600Z.

SURFACE WINDS 050-070 AT 6-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO 6
KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 181654
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1251 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A VERY WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION
TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...BUT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER TOWARDS SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.S. TEMPORARILY BUILDS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 942 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO...PROVIDING A COOL AND DRY
NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA. DEW POINTS REMAINED IN
THE COMFORTABLE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
UNATTAINABLE. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS ALSO SHOW A DRY COLUMN WITH
SUBSIDENCE. FURTHERMORE UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS TODAY. THUS ONLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH A FEW CU POSSIBLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ONGOING FORECAST HIGHS SEEM QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND LATEST LAV
GUIDANCE.

OVERALL...SUNNY SKIES AND A PLEASANT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES MADE IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ON TO THE EAST...BUT A
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION AT LEAST INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MODELS MOVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY WHICH
WILL GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE EURO BRINGS PRECIP INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST BY LATE
SATURDAY. BUT MOST MOST MODELS KEEP US DRY UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN
REGARDS TO POPS WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS SATURDAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM +9 TO +12 CELSIUS EARLY FRIDAY
WARMING TO +16 TO +18 CELSIUS BY LATE SATURDAY.  WENT WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE SO TOOK OUT ANY LINGERING POPS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY WITH UPPER RIDGING
OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 181800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SCATTERED DIURNAL CLOUD COVER BASED AROUND 040 EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET.

BASED ON EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES...PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP IN THE RURAL AREAS TOWARDS 190600Z.

SURFACE WINDS 050-070 AT 6-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO 6
KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 181654
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1251 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A VERY WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION
TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...BUT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER TOWARDS SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.S. TEMPORARILY BUILDS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 942 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO...PROVIDING A COOL AND DRY
NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA. DEW POINTS REMAINED IN
THE COMFORTABLE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
UNATTAINABLE. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS ALSO SHOW A DRY COLUMN WITH
SUBSIDENCE. FURTHERMORE UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS TODAY. THUS ONLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH A FEW CU POSSIBLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ONGOING FORECAST HIGHS SEEM QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND LATEST LAV
GUIDANCE.

OVERALL...SUNNY SKIES AND A PLEASANT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES MADE IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ON TO THE EAST...BUT A
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION AT LEAST INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MODELS MOVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY WHICH
WILL GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE EURO BRINGS PRECIP INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST BY LATE
SATURDAY. BUT MOST MOST MODELS KEEP US DRY UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN
REGARDS TO POPS WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS SATURDAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM +9 TO +12 CELSIUS EARLY FRIDAY
WARMING TO +16 TO +18 CELSIUS BY LATE SATURDAY.  WENT WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE SO TOOK OUT ANY LINGERING POPS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY WITH UPPER RIDGING
OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 181800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SCATTERED DIURNAL CLOUD COVER BASED AROUND 040 EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET.

BASED ON EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES...PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP IN THE RURAL AREAS TOWARDS 190600Z.

SURFACE WINDS 050-070 AT 6-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO 6
KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 181425
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1023 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A VERY WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION
TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...BUT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER TOWARDS SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.S. TEMPORARILY BUILDS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 942 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO...PROVIDING A COOL AND DRY
NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA. DEW POINTS REMAINED IN
THE COMFORTABLE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
UNATTAINABLE. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS ALSO SHOW A DRY COLUMN WITH
SUBSIDENCE. FURTHERMORE UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS TODAY. THUS ONLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH A FEW CU POSSIBLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ONGOING FORECAST HIGHS SEEM QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND LATEST LAV
GUIDANCE.

OVERALL...SUNNY SKIES AND A PLEASANT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES MADE IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ON TO THE EAST...BUT A
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION AT LEAST INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MODELS MOVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY WHICH
WILL GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE EURO BRINGS PRECIP INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST BY LATE
SATURDAY. BUT MOST MOST MODELS KEEP US DRY UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN
REGARDS TO POPS WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS SATURDAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM +9 TO +12 CELSIUS EARLY FRIDAY
WARMING TO +16 TO +18 CELSIUS BY LATE SATURDAY.  WENT WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE SO TOOK OUT ANY LINGERING POPS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY WITH UPPER RIDGING
OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 181500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BASED 030-040 WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PATCHY GROUND FOG...POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR AT THE OUTLYING
SITES...SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z. AFTER THAT SHOULD HAVE VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED VFR DIURNAL CU. WINDS WILL BE
4-8 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 181425
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1023 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A VERY WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION
TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...BUT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER TOWARDS SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.S. TEMPORARILY BUILDS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 942 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO...PROVIDING A COOL AND DRY
NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA. DEW POINTS REMAINED IN
THE COMFORTABLE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
UNATTAINABLE. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS ALSO SHOW A DRY COLUMN WITH
SUBSIDENCE. FURTHERMORE UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS TODAY. THUS ONLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH A FEW CU POSSIBLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ONGOING FORECAST HIGHS SEEM QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND LATEST LAV
GUIDANCE.

OVERALL...SUNNY SKIES AND A PLEASANT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES MADE IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ON TO THE EAST...BUT A
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION AT LEAST INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MODELS MOVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY WHICH
WILL GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE EURO BRINGS PRECIP INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST BY LATE
SATURDAY. BUT MOST MOST MODELS KEEP US DRY UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN
REGARDS TO POPS WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS SATURDAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM +9 TO +12 CELSIUS EARLY FRIDAY
WARMING TO +16 TO +18 CELSIUS BY LATE SATURDAY.  WENT WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE SO TOOK OUT ANY LINGERING POPS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY WITH UPPER RIDGING
OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 181500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BASED 030-040 WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PATCHY GROUND FOG...POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR AT THE OUTLYING
SITES...SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z. AFTER THAT SHOULD HAVE VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED VFR DIURNAL CU. WINDS WILL BE
4-8 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 181359
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
959 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A VERY WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION
TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...BUT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER TOWARDS SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.S. TEMPORARILY BUILDS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 942 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO...PROVIDING A COOL AND DRY
NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA. DEW POINTS REMAINED IN
THE COMFORTABLE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
UNATTAINABLE. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS ALSO SHOW A DRY COLUMN WITH
SUBSIDENCE. FURTHERMORE UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS TODAY. THUS ONLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH A FEW CU POSSIBLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ONGOING FORECAST HIGHS SEEM QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND LATEST LAV
GUIDANCE.

OVERALL...SUNNY SKIES AND A PLEASANT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES MADE IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ON TO THE EAST...BUT A
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION AT LEAST INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MODELS MOVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY WHICH
WILL GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE EURO BRINGS PRECIP INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST BY LATE
SATURDAY. BUT MOST MOST MODELS KEEP US DRY UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN
REGARDS TO POPS WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS SATURDAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM +9 TO +12 CELSIUS EARLY FRIDAY
WARMING TO +16 TO +18 CELSIUS BY LATE SATURDAY.  WENT WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE SO TOOK OUT ANY LINGERING POPS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY WITH UPPER RIDGING
OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 181200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 625 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

PATCHY GROUND FOG...POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR AT THE OUTLYING
SITES...SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z. AFTER THAT SHOULD HAVE VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED VFR DIURNAL CU. WINDS WILL BE
4-8 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 181359
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
959 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A VERY WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION
TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...BUT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER TOWARDS SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.S. TEMPORARILY BUILDS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 942 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO...PROVIDING A COOL AND DRY
NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA. DEW POINTS REMAINED IN
THE COMFORTABLE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
UNATTAINABLE. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS ALSO SHOW A DRY COLUMN WITH
SUBSIDENCE. FURTHERMORE UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS TODAY. THUS ONLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH A FEW CU POSSIBLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ONGOING FORECAST HIGHS SEEM QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND LATEST LAV
GUIDANCE.

OVERALL...SUNNY SKIES AND A PLEASANT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES MADE IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ON TO THE EAST...BUT A
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION AT LEAST INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MODELS MOVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY WHICH
WILL GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE EURO BRINGS PRECIP INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST BY LATE
SATURDAY. BUT MOST MOST MODELS KEEP US DRY UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN
REGARDS TO POPS WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS SATURDAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM +9 TO +12 CELSIUS EARLY FRIDAY
WARMING TO +16 TO +18 CELSIUS BY LATE SATURDAY.  WENT WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE SO TOOK OUT ANY LINGERING POPS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY WITH UPPER RIDGING
OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 181200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 625 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

PATCHY GROUND FOG...POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR AT THE OUTLYING
SITES...SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z. AFTER THAT SHOULD HAVE VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED VFR DIURNAL CU. WINDS WILL BE
4-8 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 181034
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
634 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A VERY WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION
TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...BUT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER TOWARDS SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.S. TEMPORARILY BUILDS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SATELLITE INDICATED SOME CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHILE CLEAR
SKIES WERE THE RULE IN THE NORTH.  A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTED FOG. BUT
I DON`T THINK THIS WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE AFTER SUNRISE.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS A VERY WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION.  850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER TODAY.  HOWEVER THE MAV TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
BIT TOO WARM.

CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SPREADS DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION.   WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ON TO THE EAST...BUT A
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION AT LEAST INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MODELS MOVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY WHICH
WILL GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE EURO BRINGS PRECIP INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST BY LATE
SATURDAY. BUT MOST MOST MODELS KEEP US DRY UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN
REGARDS TO POPS WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS SATURDAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM +9 TO +12 CELSIUS EARLY FRIDAY
WARMING TO +16 TO +18 CELSIUS BY LATE SATURDAY.  WENT WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE SO TOOK OUT ANY LINGERING POPS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY WITH UPPER RIDGING
OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 181200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 625 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

PATCHY GROUND FOG...POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR AT THE OUTLYING
SITES...SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z. AFTER THAT SHOULD HAVE VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED VFR DIURNAL CU. WINDS WILL BE
4-8 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 181034
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
634 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A VERY WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION
TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...BUT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER TOWARDS SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.S. TEMPORARILY BUILDS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SATELLITE INDICATED SOME CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHILE CLEAR
SKIES WERE THE RULE IN THE NORTH.  A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTED FOG. BUT
I DON`T THINK THIS WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE AFTER SUNRISE.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS A VERY WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION.  850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER TODAY.  HOWEVER THE MAV TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
BIT TOO WARM.

CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SPREADS DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION.   WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ON TO THE EAST...BUT A
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION AT LEAST INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MODELS MOVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY WHICH
WILL GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE EURO BRINGS PRECIP INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST BY LATE
SATURDAY. BUT MOST MOST MODELS KEEP US DRY UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN
REGARDS TO POPS WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS SATURDAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM +9 TO +12 CELSIUS EARLY FRIDAY
WARMING TO +16 TO +18 CELSIUS BY LATE SATURDAY.  WENT WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE SO TOOK OUT ANY LINGERING POPS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY WITH UPPER RIDGING
OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 181200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 625 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

PATCHY GROUND FOG...POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR AT THE OUTLYING
SITES...SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z. AFTER THAT SHOULD HAVE VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED VFR DIURNAL CU. WINDS WILL BE
4-8 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 180831
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A VERY WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION
TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...BUT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER TOWARDS SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.S. TEMPORARILY BUILDS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SATELLITE INDICATED SOME CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHILE CLEAR
SKIES WERE THE RULE IN THE NORTH.  A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTED FOG. BUT
I DON`T THINK THIS WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE AFTER SUNRISE.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS A VERY WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION.  850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER TODAY.  HOWEVER THE MAV TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
BIT TOO WARM.

CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SPREADS DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION.   WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ON TO THE EAST...BUT A
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION AT LEAST INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MODELS MOVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY WHICH
WILL GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE EURO BRINGS PRECIP INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST BY LATE
SATURDAY. BUT MOST MOST MODELS KEEP US DRY UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN
REGARDS TO POPS WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS SATURDAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM +9 TO +12 CELSIUS EARLY FRIDAY
WARMING TO +16 TO +18 CELSIUS BY LATE SATURDAY.  WENT WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE SO TOOK OUT ANY LINGERING POPS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY WITH UPPER RIDGING
OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

WITH MID CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FROM THE SITES HAVE KEPT TEMPO IFR
GOING AT THE OUTLYING SITES AND ADDED IN MVFR AT KIND. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE AT SOME OUTLIER SITES
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT. THUS EXPECT FOG ONCE AGAIN AT MOST SITES...BUT WITH SOME
DRYING DURING THE DAY DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS AS BAD AS THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT AT ALL SITES.

NORTHEAST WIND OFF OF THE CITY SHOULD KEEP KIND VFR /OR PERHAPS HIGH
END MVFR/. OTHERWISE MVFR OR WORSE EXPECTED WITH VARIABLE VISIBILITY
DUE TO GROUND FOG AT OTHER SITES.

FOG BURNS OFF EARLY LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...50/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 180831
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A VERY WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION
TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...BUT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER TOWARDS SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.S. TEMPORARILY BUILDS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SATELLITE INDICATED SOME CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHILE CLEAR
SKIES WERE THE RULE IN THE NORTH.  A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTED FOG. BUT
I DON`T THINK THIS WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE AFTER SUNRISE.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS A VERY WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION.  850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER TODAY.  HOWEVER THE MAV TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
BIT TOO WARM.

CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SPREADS DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION.   WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ON TO THE EAST...BUT A
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION AT LEAST INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MODELS MOVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY WHICH
WILL GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE EURO BRINGS PRECIP INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST BY LATE
SATURDAY. BUT MOST MOST MODELS KEEP US DRY UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN
REGARDS TO POPS WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS SATURDAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM +9 TO +12 CELSIUS EARLY FRIDAY
WARMING TO +16 TO +18 CELSIUS BY LATE SATURDAY.  WENT WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE SO TOOK OUT ANY LINGERING POPS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY WITH UPPER RIDGING
OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

WITH MID CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FROM THE SITES HAVE KEPT TEMPO IFR
GOING AT THE OUTLYING SITES AND ADDED IN MVFR AT KIND. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE AT SOME OUTLIER SITES
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT. THUS EXPECT FOG ONCE AGAIN AT MOST SITES...BUT WITH SOME
DRYING DURING THE DAY DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS AS BAD AS THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT AT ALL SITES.

NORTHEAST WIND OFF OF THE CITY SHOULD KEEP KIND VFR /OR PERHAPS HIGH
END MVFR/. OTHERWISE MVFR OR WORSE EXPECTED WITH VARIABLE VISIBILITY
DUE TO GROUND FOG AT OTHER SITES.

FOG BURNS OFF EARLY LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...50/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 180750
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A VERY WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION
TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...BUT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER TOWARDS SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.S. TEMPORARILY BUILDS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SATELLITE INDICATED SOME CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHILE CLEAR
SKIES WERE THE RULE IN THE NORTH.  A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTED FOG. BUT
I DON`T THINK THIS WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE AFTER SUNRISE.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS A VERY WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION.  850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER TODAY.  HOWEVER THE MAV TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
BIT TOO WARM.

CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SPREADS DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION.   WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ON TO THE EAST...BUT A
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION AT LEAST INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MODELS MOVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY WHICH
WILL GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE EURO BRINGS PRECIP INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST BY LATE
SATURDAY. BUT MOST MOST MODELS KEEP US DRY UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN
REGARDS TO POPS WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS SATURDAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM +9 TO +12 CELSIUS EARLY FRIDAY
WARMING TO +16 TO +18 CELSIUS BY LATE SATURDAY.  WENT WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE SO TOOK OUT ANY LINGERING POPS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY WITH UPPER RIDGING
OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE AT SOME OUTLIER SITES
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT. THUS EXPECT FOG ONCE AGAIN AT MOST SITES...BUT WITH SOME
DRYING DURING THE DAY DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS AS BAD AS THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT AT ALL SITES.

NORTHEAST WIND OFF OF THE CITY SHOULD KEEP KIND VFR /OR PERHAPS HIGH
END MVFR/. OTHERWISE MVFR OR WORSE EXPECTED WITH VARIABLE VISIBILITY
DUE TO GROUND FOG AT OTHER SITES.

FOG BURNS OFF EARLY LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...50/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 180750
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A VERY WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION
TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...BUT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER TOWARDS SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.S. TEMPORARILY BUILDS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SATELLITE INDICATED SOME CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHILE CLEAR
SKIES WERE THE RULE IN THE NORTH.  A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTED FOG. BUT
I DON`T THINK THIS WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE AFTER SUNRISE.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS A VERY WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION.  850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER TODAY.  HOWEVER THE MAV TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
BIT TOO WARM.

CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SPREADS DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION.   WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ON TO THE EAST...BUT A
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION AT LEAST INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MODELS MOVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY WHICH
WILL GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE EURO BRINGS PRECIP INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST BY LATE
SATURDAY. BUT MOST MOST MODELS KEEP US DRY UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN
REGARDS TO POPS WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS SATURDAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM +9 TO +12 CELSIUS EARLY FRIDAY
WARMING TO +16 TO +18 CELSIUS BY LATE SATURDAY.  WENT WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE SO TOOK OUT ANY LINGERING POPS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY WITH UPPER RIDGING
OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE AT SOME OUTLIER SITES
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT. THUS EXPECT FOG ONCE AGAIN AT MOST SITES...BUT WITH SOME
DRYING DURING THE DAY DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS AS BAD AS THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT AT ALL SITES.

NORTHEAST WIND OFF OF THE CITY SHOULD KEEP KIND VFR /OR PERHAPS HIGH
END MVFR/. OTHERWISE MVFR OR WORSE EXPECTED WITH VARIABLE VISIBILITY
DUE TO GROUND FOG AT OTHER SITES.

FOG BURNS OFF EARLY LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...50/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 180459
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
100 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW...BUT
LACK OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN NO RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.


&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SHOWERS THAT HAD DEVELOPED WITH THE UPPER WAVE HAVE DISSIPATED AS
BULK OF FORCING HAS SHIFTED OUT OF THE AREA. STILL SOME MID CLOUDS
AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR WEST SECTIONS OF
THE AREA.

DRIER AIR WILL FLOW INTO CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD
ERODE SOME OF THE MID CLOUDS AS THEY TRY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL
GO PARTLY CLOUDY WEST AND MOSTLY CLEAR EAST...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES WHERE
NEEDED.

RELEVANT PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME AFTER A
DAY OF DRY CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT/S LOWS ARE PROGGED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S. MODELS ARE
HANDLING THE BENIGN PATTERN WELL...SO WENT WITH A BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE ADVANCEMENT OF COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF
THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS WILL NOT START FILTERING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN
AND OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANY POPS INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NORTH AND
EASTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL BUMP
HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW 80S AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO A WARM
SECTOR. MODELS WERE IN CLOSE ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO GO WITH A
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED END TO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH DRY COOL WEATHER.

MODEL CONSENSUS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TRACKING A SURFACE WAVE EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE NOW A BIT FASTER WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS IN
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING BUT IF FASTER TRENDS HOLD...MOST
IF NOT ALL PRECIP MAY BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY
EVENING.

AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A WESTERN RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WILL KEEP HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH
CHILLY MORNINGS INTO THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE AT SOME OUTLIER SITES
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT. THUS EXPECT FOG ONCE AGAIN AT MOST SITES...BUT WITH SOME
DRYING DURING THE DAY DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS AS BAD AS THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT AT ALL SITES.

NORTHEAST WIND OFF OF THE CITY SHOULD KEEP KIND VFR /OR PERHAPS HIGH
END MVFR/. OTHERWISE MVFR OR WORSE EXPECTED WITH VARIABLE VISIBILITY
DUE TO GROUND FOG AT OTHER SITES.

FOG BURNS OFF EARLY LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD/50
NEAR TERM...TDUD/50
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...50/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 180459
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
100 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW...BUT
LACK OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN NO RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.


&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SHOWERS THAT HAD DEVELOPED WITH THE UPPER WAVE HAVE DISSIPATED AS
BULK OF FORCING HAS SHIFTED OUT OF THE AREA. STILL SOME MID CLOUDS
AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR WEST SECTIONS OF
THE AREA.

DRIER AIR WILL FLOW INTO CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD
ERODE SOME OF THE MID CLOUDS AS THEY TRY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL
GO PARTLY CLOUDY WEST AND MOSTLY CLEAR EAST...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES WHERE
NEEDED.

RELEVANT PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME AFTER A
DAY OF DRY CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT/S LOWS ARE PROGGED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S. MODELS ARE
HANDLING THE BENIGN PATTERN WELL...SO WENT WITH A BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE ADVANCEMENT OF COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF
THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS WILL NOT START FILTERING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN
AND OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANY POPS INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NORTH AND
EASTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL BUMP
HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW 80S AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO A WARM
SECTOR. MODELS WERE IN CLOSE ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO GO WITH A
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED END TO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH DRY COOL WEATHER.

MODEL CONSENSUS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TRACKING A SURFACE WAVE EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE NOW A BIT FASTER WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS IN
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING BUT IF FASTER TRENDS HOLD...MOST
IF NOT ALL PRECIP MAY BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY
EVENING.

AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A WESTERN RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WILL KEEP HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH
CHILLY MORNINGS INTO THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE AT SOME OUTLIER SITES
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT. THUS EXPECT FOG ONCE AGAIN AT MOST SITES...BUT WITH SOME
DRYING DURING THE DAY DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS AS BAD AS THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT AT ALL SITES.

NORTHEAST WIND OFF OF THE CITY SHOULD KEEP KIND VFR /OR PERHAPS HIGH
END MVFR/. OTHERWISE MVFR OR WORSE EXPECTED WITH VARIABLE VISIBILITY
DUE TO GROUND FOG AT OTHER SITES.

FOG BURNS OFF EARLY LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD/50
NEAR TERM...TDUD/50
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...50/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 180224
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1024 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW...BUT
LACK OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN NO RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.


&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SHOWERS THAT HAD DEVELOPED WITH THE UPPER WAVE HAVE DISSIPATED AS
BULK OF FORCING HAS SHIFTED OUT OF THE AREA. STILL SOME MID CLOUDS
AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR WEST SECTIONS OF
THE AREA.

DRIER AIR WILL FLOW INTO CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD
ERODE SOME OF THE MID CLOUDS AS THEY TRY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL
GO PARTLY CLOUDY WEST AND MOSTLY CLEAR EAST...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES WHERE
NEEDED.

RELEVANT PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME AFTER A
DAY OF DRY CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT/S LOWS ARE PROGGED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S. MODELS ARE
HANDLING THE BENIGN PATTERN WELL...SO WENT WITH A BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE ADVANCEMENT OF COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF
THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS WILL NOT START FILTERING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN
AND OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANY POPS INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NORTH AND
EASTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL BUMP
HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW 80S AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO A WARM
SECTOR. MODELS WERE IN CLOSE ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO GO WITH A
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED END TO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH DRY COOL WEATHER.

MODEL CONSENSUS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TRACKING A SURFACE WAVE EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE NOW A BIT FASTER WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS IN
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING BUT IF FASTER TRENDS HOLD...MOST
IF NOT ALL PRECIP MAY BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY
EVENING.

AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A WESTERN RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WILL KEEP HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH
CHILLY MORNINGS INTO THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180300Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1024 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

KIND TAF LOOKS GOOD. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE AT SOME OUTLIER SITES
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL KEEP MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT ANY SHRA SHOULD BE OUT OF THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN
SITES BY VALID TIME.

CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THUS
EXPECT FOG ONCE AGAIN AT MOST SITES...BUT WITH SOME DRYING DURING
THE DAY DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS AS BAD AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

NORTHEAST WIND OFF OF THE CITY SHOULD KEEP KIND VFR / OR PERHAPS
HIGH END MVFR/. OTHERWISE MVFR OR WORSE EXPECTED WITH VARIABLE
VISIBILITY DUE TO GROUND FOG AT OTHER SITES.

FOG BURNS OFF EARLY LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD/50
NEAR TERM...TDUD/50
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 180224
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1024 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW...BUT
LACK OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN NO RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.


&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SHOWERS THAT HAD DEVELOPED WITH THE UPPER WAVE HAVE DISSIPATED AS
BULK OF FORCING HAS SHIFTED OUT OF THE AREA. STILL SOME MID CLOUDS
AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR WEST SECTIONS OF
THE AREA.

DRIER AIR WILL FLOW INTO CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD
ERODE SOME OF THE MID CLOUDS AS THEY TRY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL
GO PARTLY CLOUDY WEST AND MOSTLY CLEAR EAST...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES WHERE
NEEDED.

RELEVANT PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME AFTER A
DAY OF DRY CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT/S LOWS ARE PROGGED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S. MODELS ARE
HANDLING THE BENIGN PATTERN WELL...SO WENT WITH A BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE ADVANCEMENT OF COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF
THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS WILL NOT START FILTERING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN
AND OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANY POPS INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NORTH AND
EASTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL BUMP
HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW 80S AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO A WARM
SECTOR. MODELS WERE IN CLOSE ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO GO WITH A
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED END TO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH DRY COOL WEATHER.

MODEL CONSENSUS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TRACKING A SURFACE WAVE EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE NOW A BIT FASTER WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS IN
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING BUT IF FASTER TRENDS HOLD...MOST
IF NOT ALL PRECIP MAY BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY
EVENING.

AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A WESTERN RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WILL KEEP HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH
CHILLY MORNINGS INTO THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180300Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1024 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

KIND TAF LOOKS GOOD. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE AT SOME OUTLIER SITES
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL KEEP MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT ANY SHRA SHOULD BE OUT OF THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN
SITES BY VALID TIME.

CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THUS
EXPECT FOG ONCE AGAIN AT MOST SITES...BUT WITH SOME DRYING DURING
THE DAY DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS AS BAD AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

NORTHEAST WIND OFF OF THE CITY SHOULD KEEP KIND VFR / OR PERHAPS
HIGH END MVFR/. OTHERWISE MVFR OR WORSE EXPECTED WITH VARIABLE
VISIBILITY DUE TO GROUND FOG AT OTHER SITES.

FOG BURNS OFF EARLY LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD/50
NEAR TERM...TDUD/50
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 180155
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
955 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS AND NEAR TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW...BUT
LACK OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN NO RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.


&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SHOWERS THAT HAD DEVELOPED WITH THE UPPER WAVE HAVE DISSIPATED AS
BULK OF FORCING HAS SHIFTED OUT OF THE AREA. STILL SOME MID CLOUDS
AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR WEST SECTIONS OF
THE AREA.

DRIER AIR WILL FLOW INTO CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD
ERODE SOME OF THE MID CLOUDS AS THEY TRY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL
GO PARTLY CLOUDY WEST AND MOSTLY CLEAR EAST...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES WHERE
NEEDED.

RELEVANT PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME AFTER A
DAY OF DRY CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT/S LOWS ARE PROGGED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S. MODELS ARE
HANDLING THE BENIGN PATTERN WELL...SO WENT WITH A BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE ADVANCEMENT OF COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF
THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS WILL NOT START FILTERING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN
AND OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANY POPS INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NORTH AND
EASTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL BUMP
HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW 80S AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO A WARM
SECTOR. MODELS WERE IN CLOSE ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO GO WITH A
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED END TO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH DRY COOL WEATHER.

MODEL CONSENSUS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TRACKING A SURFACE WAVE EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE NOW A BIT FASTER WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS IN
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING BUT IF FASTER TRENDS HOLD...MOST
IF NOT ALL PRECIP MAY BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY
EVENING.

AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A WESTERN RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WILL KEEP HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH
CHILLY MORNINGS INTO THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE AT SOME OUTLIER SITES
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL KEEP MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT ANY SHRA SHOULD BE OUT OF THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN
SITES BY VALID TIME.

CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THUS
EXPECT FOG ONCE AGAIN AT MOST SITES...BUT WITH SOME DRYING DURING
THE DAY DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS AS BAD AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

NORTHEAST WIND OFF OF THE CITY SHOULD KEEP KIND VFR / OR PERHAPS
HIGH END MVFR/. OTHERWISE MVFR OR WORSE EXPECTED WITH VARIABLE
VISIBILITY DUE TO GROUND FOG AT OTHER SITES.

FOG BURNS OFF EARLY LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD/50
NEAR TERM...TDUD/50
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 180155
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
955 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS AND NEAR TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW...BUT
LACK OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN NO RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.


&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

SHOWERS THAT HAD DEVELOPED WITH THE UPPER WAVE HAVE DISSIPATED AS
BULK OF FORCING HAS SHIFTED OUT OF THE AREA. STILL SOME MID CLOUDS
AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR WEST SECTIONS OF
THE AREA.

DRIER AIR WILL FLOW INTO CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD
ERODE SOME OF THE MID CLOUDS AS THEY TRY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL
GO PARTLY CLOUDY WEST AND MOSTLY CLEAR EAST...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES WHERE
NEEDED.

RELEVANT PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME AFTER A
DAY OF DRY CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT/S LOWS ARE PROGGED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S. MODELS ARE
HANDLING THE BENIGN PATTERN WELL...SO WENT WITH A BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE ADVANCEMENT OF COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF
THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS WILL NOT START FILTERING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN
AND OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANY POPS INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NORTH AND
EASTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL BUMP
HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW 80S AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO A WARM
SECTOR. MODELS WERE IN CLOSE ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO GO WITH A
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED END TO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH DRY COOL WEATHER.

MODEL CONSENSUS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TRACKING A SURFACE WAVE EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE NOW A BIT FASTER WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS IN
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING BUT IF FASTER TRENDS HOLD...MOST
IF NOT ALL PRECIP MAY BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY
EVENING.

AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A WESTERN RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WILL KEEP HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH
CHILLY MORNINGS INTO THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE AT SOME OUTLIER SITES
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL KEEP MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT ANY SHRA SHOULD BE OUT OF THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN
SITES BY VALID TIME.

CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THUS
EXPECT FOG ONCE AGAIN AT MOST SITES...BUT WITH SOME DRYING DURING
THE DAY DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS AS BAD AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

NORTHEAST WIND OFF OF THE CITY SHOULD KEEP KIND VFR / OR PERHAPS
HIGH END MVFR/. OTHERWISE MVFR OR WORSE EXPECTED WITH VARIABLE
VISIBILITY DUE TO GROUND FOG AT OTHER SITES.

FOG BURNS OFF EARLY LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD/50
NEAR TERM...TDUD/50
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 172230
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 610 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE... A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW...BUT
LACK OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN NO RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 610 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

HAD TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND 20Z RAPID
REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

LATEST IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUD COVER
OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
KANSAS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER
WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT. CANNOT ENTIRELY
RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME AFTER A DAY OF DRY
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT/S LOWS ARE PROGGED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S. MODELS ARE
HANDLING THE BENIGN PATTERN WELL...SO WENT WITH A BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE ADVANCEMENT OF COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF
THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS WILL NOT START FILTERING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN
AND OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANY POPS INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NORTH AND
EASTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL BUMP
HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW 80S AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO A WARM
SECTOR. MODELS WERE IN CLOSE ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO GO WITH A
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED END TO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH DRY COOL WEATHER.

MODEL CONSENSUS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TRACKING A SURFACE WAVE EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE NOW A BIT FASTER WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS IN
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING BUT IF FASTER TRENDS HOLD...MOST
IF NOT ALL PRECIP MAY BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY
EVENING.

AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A WESTERN RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WILL KEEP HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH
CHILLY MORNINGS INTO THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE AT SOME OUTLIER SITES
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL KEEP MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT ANY SHRA SHOULD BE OUT OF THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN
SITES BY VALID TIME.

CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THUS
EXPECT FOG ONCE AGAIN AT MOST SITES...BUT WITH SOME DRYING DURING
THE DAY DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS AS BAD AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

NORTHEAST WIND OFF OF THE CITY SHOULD KEEP KIND VFR / OR PERHAPS
HIGH END MVFR/. OTHERWISE MVFR OR WORSE EXPECTED WITH VARIABLE
VISIBILITY DUE TO GROUND FOG AT OTHER SITES.

FOG BURNS OFF EARLY LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD/MK
NEAR TERM...TDUD/MK
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 172230
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 610 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE... A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW...BUT
LACK OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN NO RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 610 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

HAD TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND 20Z RAPID
REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

LATEST IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUD COVER
OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
KANSAS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER
WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT. CANNOT ENTIRELY
RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME AFTER A DAY OF DRY
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT/S LOWS ARE PROGGED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S. MODELS ARE
HANDLING THE BENIGN PATTERN WELL...SO WENT WITH A BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE ADVANCEMENT OF COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF
THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS WILL NOT START FILTERING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN
AND OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANY POPS INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NORTH AND
EASTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL BUMP
HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW 80S AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO A WARM
SECTOR. MODELS WERE IN CLOSE ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO GO WITH A
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED END TO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH DRY COOL WEATHER.

MODEL CONSENSUS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TRACKING A SURFACE WAVE EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE NOW A BIT FASTER WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS IN
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING BUT IF FASTER TRENDS HOLD...MOST
IF NOT ALL PRECIP MAY BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY
EVENING.

AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A WESTERN RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WILL KEEP HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH
CHILLY MORNINGS INTO THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE AT SOME OUTLIER SITES
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL KEEP MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT ANY SHRA SHOULD BE OUT OF THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN
SITES BY VALID TIME.

CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THUS
EXPECT FOG ONCE AGAIN AT MOST SITES...BUT WITH SOME DRYING DURING
THE DAY DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS AS BAD AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

NORTHEAST WIND OFF OF THE CITY SHOULD KEEP KIND VFR / OR PERHAPS
HIGH END MVFR/. OTHERWISE MVFR OR WORSE EXPECTED WITH VARIABLE
VISIBILITY DUE TO GROUND FOG AT OTHER SITES.

FOG BURNS OFF EARLY LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD/MK
NEAR TERM...TDUD/MK
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 172210
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
610 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 610 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW...BUT
LACK OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN NO RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 610 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

HAD TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND 20Z RAPID
REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

LATEST IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUD COVER
OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
KANSAS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER
WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT. CANNOT ENTIRELY
RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME AFTER A DAY OF DRY
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT/S LOWS ARE PROGGED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S. MODELS ARE
HANDLING THE BENIGN PATTERN WELL...SO WENT WITH A BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE ADVANCEMENT OF COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF
THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS WILL NOT START FILTERING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN
AND OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANY POPS INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NORTH AND
EASTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL BUMP
HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW 80S AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO A WARM
SECTOR. MODELS WERE IN CLOSE ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO GO WITH A
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED END TO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH DRY COOL WEATHER.

MODEL CONSENSUS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TRACKING A SURFACE WAVE EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE NOW A BIT FASTER WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS IN
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING BUT IF FASTER TRENDS HOLD...MOST
IF NOT ALL PRECIP MAY BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY
EVENING.

AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A WESTERN RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WILL KEEP HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH
CHILLY MORNINGS INTO THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 172100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

KIND TAF IS IN GOOD SHAPE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS ILLINOIS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

CU FIELD WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 2500-3500FT HAS DEVELOPED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH OF THE WAVE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. CU WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AS WELL...WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO AROUND 4KFT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH A PREDOMINANT LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. GOOD SETUP ONCE AGAIN FOR PATCHY FOG BUT
AFTER A DAY OF DRYING...NOT ANTICIPATING FOG AS THICK OR EXTENSIVE
AS THAT EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. SCATTERED CU WILL FORM AGAIN BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. E/NE WINDS OF
5-10KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD/MK
NEAR TERM...TDUD/MK
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 172210
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
610 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 610 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW...BUT
LACK OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN NO RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 610 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

HAD TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND 20Z RAPID
REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

LATEST IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUD COVER
OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
KANSAS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER
WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT. CANNOT ENTIRELY
RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME AFTER A DAY OF DRY
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT/S LOWS ARE PROGGED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S. MODELS ARE
HANDLING THE BENIGN PATTERN WELL...SO WENT WITH A BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE ADVANCEMENT OF COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF
THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS WILL NOT START FILTERING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN
AND OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANY POPS INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NORTH AND
EASTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL BUMP
HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW 80S AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO A WARM
SECTOR. MODELS WERE IN CLOSE ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO GO WITH A
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED END TO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH DRY COOL WEATHER.

MODEL CONSENSUS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TRACKING A SURFACE WAVE EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE NOW A BIT FASTER WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS IN
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING BUT IF FASTER TRENDS HOLD...MOST
IF NOT ALL PRECIP MAY BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY
EVENING.

AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A WESTERN RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WILL KEEP HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH
CHILLY MORNINGS INTO THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 172100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

KIND TAF IS IN GOOD SHAPE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS ILLINOIS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

CU FIELD WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 2500-3500FT HAS DEVELOPED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH OF THE WAVE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. CU WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AS WELL...WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO AROUND 4KFT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH A PREDOMINANT LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. GOOD SETUP ONCE AGAIN FOR PATCHY FOG BUT
AFTER A DAY OF DRYING...NOT ANTICIPATING FOG AS THICK OR EXTENSIVE
AS THAT EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. SCATTERED CU WILL FORM AGAIN BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. E/NE WINDS OF
5-10KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD/MK
NEAR TERM...TDUD/MK
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 172023
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
423 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW...BUT
LACK OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN NO RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

LATEST IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUD COVER
OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
KANSAS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER
WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT. CANNOT ENTIRELY
RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME AFTER A DAY OF DRY
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT/S LOWS ARE PROGGED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S. MODELS ARE
HANDLING THE BENIGN PATTERN WELL...SO WENT WITH A BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE ADVANCEMENT OF COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF
THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS WILL NOT START FILTERING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN
AND OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANY POPS INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NORTH AND
EASTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL BUMP
HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW 80S AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO A WARM
SECTOR. MODELS WERE IN CLOSE ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO GO WITH A
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED END TO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH DRY COOL WEATHER.

MODEL CONSENSUS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TRACKING A SURFACE WAVE EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE NOW A BIT FASTER WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS IN
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING BUT IF FASTER TRENDS HOLD...MOST
IF NOT ALL PRECIP MAY BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY
EVENING.

AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A WESTERN RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WILL KEEP HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH
CHILLY MORNINGS INTO THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 172100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

KIND TAF IS IN GOOD SHAPE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS ILLINOIS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

CU FIELD WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 2500-3500FT HAS DEVELOPED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH OF THE WAVE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. CU WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AS WELL...WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO AROUND 4KFT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH A PREDOMINANT LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. GOOD SETUP ONCE AGAIN FOR PATCHY FOG BUT
AFTER A DAY OF DRYING...NOT ANTICIPATING FOG AS THICK OR EXTENSIVE
AS THAT EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. SCATTERED CU WILL FORM AGAIN BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. E/NE WINDS OF
5-10KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 171958
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
358 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW...BUT
LACK OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN NO RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

LATEST IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUD COVER
OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
KANSAS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER
WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT. CANNOT ENTIRELY
RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME AFTER A DAY OF DRY
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT/S LOWS ARE PROGGED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S. MODELS ARE
HANDLING THE BENIGN PATTERN WELL...SO WENT WITH A BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE ADVANCEMENT OF COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF
THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS WILL NOT START FILTERING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN
AND OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANY POPS INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NORTH AND
EASTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL BUMP
HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW 80S AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO A WARM
SECTOR. MODELS WERE IN CLOSE ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO GO WITH A
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED END TO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH DRY COOL WEATHER.

MODEL CONSENSUS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TRACKING A SURFACE WAVE EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE NOW A BIT FASTER WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS IN
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING BUT IF FASTER TRENDS HOLD...MOST
IF NOT ALL PRECIP MAY BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY
EVENING.

AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A WESTERN RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WILL KEEP HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH
CHILLY MORNINGS INTO THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

CU FIELD WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 2500-3500FT HAS DEVELOPED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH OF THE WAVE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. CU WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AS WELL...WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO AROUND 4KFT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH A PREDOMINANT LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. GOOD SETUP ONCE AGAIN FOR PATCHY FOG BUT
AFTER A DAY OF DRYING...NOT ANTICIPATING FOG AS THICK OR EXTENSIVE
AS THAT EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. SCATTERED CU WILL FORM AGAIN BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. E/NE WINDS OF
5-10KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 171958
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
358 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW...BUT
LACK OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN NO RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

LATEST IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUD COVER
OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
KANSAS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER
WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT. CANNOT ENTIRELY
RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME AFTER A DAY OF DRY
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT/S LOWS ARE PROGGED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S. MODELS ARE
HANDLING THE BENIGN PATTERN WELL...SO WENT WITH A BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE ADVANCEMENT OF COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF
THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS WILL NOT START FILTERING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN
AND OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANY POPS INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NORTH AND
EASTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL BUMP
HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW 80S AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO A WARM
SECTOR. MODELS WERE IN CLOSE ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO GO WITH A
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED END TO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH DRY COOL WEATHER.

MODEL CONSENSUS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TRACKING A SURFACE WAVE EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE NOW A BIT FASTER WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS IN
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING BUT IF FASTER TRENDS HOLD...MOST
IF NOT ALL PRECIP MAY BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY
EVENING.

AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A WESTERN RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WILL KEEP HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH
CHILLY MORNINGS INTO THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

CU FIELD WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 2500-3500FT HAS DEVELOPED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH OF THE WAVE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. CU WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AS WELL...WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO AROUND 4KFT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH A PREDOMINANT LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. GOOD SETUP ONCE AGAIN FOR PATCHY FOG BUT
AFTER A DAY OF DRYING...NOT ANTICIPATING FOG AS THICK OR EXTENSIVE
AS THAT EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. SCATTERED CU WILL FORM AGAIN BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. E/NE WINDS OF
5-10KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 171656
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1256 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION
SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY DAY 7.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1011 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATE...
FOG HAS DISSIPATED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO ALLOWED THE
FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 EDT AM. THERE ARE STILL A FEW POCKETS
OF FOG...BUT THEY ARE TOO ISOLATED IN NATURE TO CONTINUE CARRYING
AN ADVISORY ANY FURTHER.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT TODAY/S HIGHS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO
WARM OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...BUT HELD OFF ON LOWERING THEM
AT THIS TIME SINCE THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH RIDGING OVER
THE AREA. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ARE GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID OR LATE MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
TODAY. MAIN AFFECT WILL BE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.  THE NAM AND GEMNH MODELS BRING PRECIP TO OUR
SOUTH LATE TODAY...BUT THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS OUR REGION.

MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAD WARMER TODAY.  WENT
CLOSE TO A MET MAV BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID/HIGH CLOUDS CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL THIN
OUT TONIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL END
OF THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPERATURE WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE. MODELS INDICATE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY AND WILL LEAN TOWARD
COOLER MET TEMPERATURES THEN.   IT WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BUILDS EAST INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.    WENT WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 THURSDAY
AND IN THE MIDDLE 70S FRIDAY.   LOWS WILL BE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO
LOWER 50S TONIGHT RISING TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT IN TOW WILL MOVE TOWARD
CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THERE. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH BUT MUCAPES ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 100S. WITH THIS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES STILL THINK
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION IS THE WAY TO GO. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
LOW 80S ON SATURDAY BUT AFTER THAT WILL DROP EACH DAY WITH NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

CU FIELD WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 2500-3500FT HAS DEVELOPED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH OF THE WAVE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. CU WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AS WELL...WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO AROUND 4KFT AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH A PREDOMINANT LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. GOOD SETUP ONCE AGAIN FOR PATCHY FOG BUT
AFTER A DAY OF DRYING...NOT ANTICIPATING FOG AS THICK OR EXTENSIVE
AS THAT EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. SCATTERED CU WILL FORM AGAIN BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. E/NE WINDS OF
5-10KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/TDUD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 171447
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1047 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION
SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY DAY 7.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1011 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATE...
FOG HAS DISSIPATED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO ALLOWED THE
FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 EDT AM. THERE ARE STILL A FEW POCKETS
OF FOG...BUT THEY ARE TOO ISOLATED IN NATURE TO CONTINUE CARRYING
AN ADVISORY ANY FURTHER.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT TODAY/S HIGHS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO
WARM OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...BUT HELD OFF ON LOWERING THEM
AT THIS TIME SINCE THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH RIDGING OVER
THE AREA. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ARE GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID OR LATE MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
TODAY. MAIN AFFECT WILL BE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.  THE NAM AND GEMNH MODELS BRING PRECIP TO OUR
SOUTH LATE TODAY...BUT THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS OUR REGION.

MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAD WARMER TODAY.  WENT
CLOSE TO A MET MAV BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID/HIGH CLOUDS CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL THIN
OUT TONIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL END
OF THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPERATURE WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE. MODELS INDICATE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY AND WILL LEAN TOWARD
COOLER MET TEMPERATURES THEN.   IT WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BUILDS EAST INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.    WENT WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 THURSDAY
AND IN THE MIDDLE 70S FRIDAY.   LOWS WILL BE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO
LOWER 50S TONIGHT RISING TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT IN TOW WILL MOVE TOWARD
CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THERE. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH BUT MUCAPES ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 100S. WITH THIS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES STILL THINK
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION IS THE WAY TO GO. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
LOW 80S ON SATURDAY BUT AFTER THAT WILL DROP EACH DAY WITH NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

MOST OF THE FOG HAS LIFTED AT THE TERMINALS AS OF 1430Z. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO CEILINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR MID LEVEL
DECK ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VFR CU LIKELY TO FORM BENEATH THE MID DECK AS
WELL.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LIFR FOG AND CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 13Z AT THE
SITES. THE FOG IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND EXPECT TO SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY 13Z WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR BY AROUND 14Z. TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CU THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG SOMETIME AFTER
6Z TONIGHT AT THE SITES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/TDUD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CP/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 171447
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1047 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION
SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY DAY 7.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1011 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATE...
FOG HAS DISSIPATED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO ALLOWED THE
FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 EDT AM. THERE ARE STILL A FEW POCKETS
OF FOG...BUT THEY ARE TOO ISOLATED IN NATURE TO CONTINUE CARRYING
AN ADVISORY ANY FURTHER.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT TODAY/S HIGHS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO
WARM OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...BUT HELD OFF ON LOWERING THEM
AT THIS TIME SINCE THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH RIDGING OVER
THE AREA. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ARE GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID OR LATE MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
TODAY. MAIN AFFECT WILL BE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.  THE NAM AND GEMNH MODELS BRING PRECIP TO OUR
SOUTH LATE TODAY...BUT THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS OUR REGION.

MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAD WARMER TODAY.  WENT
CLOSE TO A MET MAV BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID/HIGH CLOUDS CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL THIN
OUT TONIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL END
OF THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPERATURE WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE. MODELS INDICATE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY AND WILL LEAN TOWARD
COOLER MET TEMPERATURES THEN.   IT WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BUILDS EAST INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.    WENT WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 THURSDAY
AND IN THE MIDDLE 70S FRIDAY.   LOWS WILL BE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO
LOWER 50S TONIGHT RISING TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT IN TOW WILL MOVE TOWARD
CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THERE. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH BUT MUCAPES ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 100S. WITH THIS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES STILL THINK
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION IS THE WAY TO GO. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
LOW 80S ON SATURDAY BUT AFTER THAT WILL DROP EACH DAY WITH NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

MOST OF THE FOG HAS LIFTED AT THE TERMINALS AS OF 1430Z. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO CEILINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR MID LEVEL
DECK ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VFR CU LIKELY TO FORM BENEATH THE MID DECK AS
WELL.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LIFR FOG AND CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 13Z AT THE
SITES. THE FOG IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND EXPECT TO SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY 13Z WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR BY AROUND 14Z. TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CU THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG SOMETIME AFTER
6Z TONIGHT AT THE SITES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/TDUD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CP/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 171423
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1023 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION
SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY DAY 7.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1011 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATE...
FOG HAS DISSIPATED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO ALLOWED THE
FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 EDT AM. THERE ARE STILL A FEW POCKETS
OF FOG...BUT THEY ARE TOO ISOLATED IN NATURE TO CONTINUE CARRYING
AN ADVISORY ANY FURTHER.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT TODAY/S HIGHS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO
WARM OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...BUT HELD OFF ON LOWERING THEM
AT THIS TIME SINCE THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH RIDGING OVER
THE AREA. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ARE GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID OR LATE MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
TODAY. MAIN AFFECT WILL BE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.  THE NAM AND GEMNH MODELS BRING PRECIP TO OUR
SOUTH LATE TODAY...BUT THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS OUR REGION.

MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAD WARMER TODAY.  WENT
CLOSE TO A MET MAV BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID/HIGH CLOUDS CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL THIN
OUT TONIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL END
OF THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPERATURE WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE. MODELS INDICATE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY AND WILL LEAN TOWARD
COOLER MET TEMPERATURES THEN.   IT WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BUILDS EAST INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.    WENT WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 THURSDAY
AND IN THE MIDDLE 70S FRIDAY.   LOWS WILL BE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO
LOWER 50S TONIGHT RISING TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT IN TOW WILL MOVE TOWARD
CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THERE. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH BUT MUCAPES ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 100S. WITH THIS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES STILL THINK
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION IS THE WAY TO GO. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
LOW 80S ON SATURDAY BUT AFTER THAT WILL DROP EACH DAY WITH NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

LIFR FOG AND CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 13Z AT THE
SITES. THE FOG IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND EXPECT TO SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY 13Z WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR BY AROUND 14Z. TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CU THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG SOMETIME AFTER
6Z TONIGHT AT THE SITES.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/TDUD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 171423
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1023 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION
SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY DAY 7.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1011 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATE...
FOG HAS DISSIPATED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO ALLOWED THE
FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 EDT AM. THERE ARE STILL A FEW POCKETS
OF FOG...BUT THEY ARE TOO ISOLATED IN NATURE TO CONTINUE CARRYING
AN ADVISORY ANY FURTHER.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT TODAY/S HIGHS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO
WARM OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...BUT HELD OFF ON LOWERING THEM
AT THIS TIME SINCE THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH RIDGING OVER
THE AREA. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ARE GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID OR LATE MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
TODAY. MAIN AFFECT WILL BE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.  THE NAM AND GEMNH MODELS BRING PRECIP TO OUR
SOUTH LATE TODAY...BUT THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS OUR REGION.

MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAD WARMER TODAY.  WENT
CLOSE TO A MET MAV BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID/HIGH CLOUDS CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL THIN
OUT TONIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL END
OF THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPERATURE WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE. MODELS INDICATE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY AND WILL LEAN TOWARD
COOLER MET TEMPERATURES THEN.   IT WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BUILDS EAST INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.    WENT WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 THURSDAY
AND IN THE MIDDLE 70S FRIDAY.   LOWS WILL BE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO
LOWER 50S TONIGHT RISING TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT IN TOW WILL MOVE TOWARD
CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THERE. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH BUT MUCAPES ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 100S. WITH THIS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES STILL THINK
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION IS THE WAY TO GO. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
LOW 80S ON SATURDAY BUT AFTER THAT WILL DROP EACH DAY WITH NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

LIFR FOG AND CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 13Z AT THE
SITES. THE FOG IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND EXPECT TO SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY 13Z WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR BY AROUND 14Z. TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CU THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG SOMETIME AFTER
6Z TONIGHT AT THE SITES.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/TDUD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









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