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000
FXUS63 KIND 010736
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
GIVE WAY TO COOLER THAN AVERAGE NUMBERS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
IOWA INTO KANSAS LOOKS TO BE SPLITTING WITH NORTHERN END MOVING
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN END MOVING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THESE STORMS HAS MOVED EAST INTO EASTERN MISSOURI AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TODAY...WITH
REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT BULK OF RAIN TO HAVE DRIED UP BY THE TIME IT REACHES
HERE...BUT THE OLD OUTFLOW WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING. WORKING
AGAINST NEW CONVECTION EARLY TODAY WILL BE THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
FROM THE DYING STORMS.

FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BEGIN THEIR APPROACH.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH AS BEST FORCING DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

WILL GO CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY AS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD SLOW THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB TODAY. THIS HEATING WILL BUILD
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR PERHAPS SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

TONIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH MOVE INTO THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 30-40KT
RANGE BY 06Z...AND CENTRAL INDIANA GETS PLACED INTO THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE AREA
WILL COMBINE WITH THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THESE FEATURES TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

WENT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS AROUND 06Z AS FORCING LOOKS TO PEAK IN THAT TIME FRAME. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES WILL
ALSO LEAD TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 00Z NCEP WRF-NMM AND 00Z NSSL WRF ARE MUCH LESS
BULLISH WITH RAINFALL TONIGHT...WITH FORECAST REFLECTIVITY IMAGES
SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION AT 06Z TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
FORCING AND ENSEMBLES OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SHOWING
WIDESPREAD RAIN...WILL IGNORE THESE OUTLIERS FOR NOW.

FORCING WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA /CHANCE NORTH/. POPS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WENT DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. THE OLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE MOMENT BELIEVE FORCING WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF RAIN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOWS. FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND
DURING THE MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL
NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A WARM AND HUMID START WITH EARLY
WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND FINALLY A DRY AND COOL LATE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS AROUND ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO SATURDAY...BUT BY
SATURDAY NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER TO LEAVE POPS OUT.

PRETTY DECENT COLD ADVECTION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ARRIVE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES DROPPING
FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS ON THURSDAY TO 10 DEGREES OR LESS BY
SUNDAY. AS SUCH...REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS IN THE BALLPARK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 010600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1238 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SITES WILL START OUT VFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND WINDS
AROUND 3-5 KTS EXPECT TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STEEP INVERSION DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KHUF AND DIPPING PAST
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES AS WELL. KIND AND KBMG SOUNDINGS SHOW
INVERSIONS THAT ARE NOT AS STEEP. WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
AT ALL THE OUTLYING SITES WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KLAF AND KHUF.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS TO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL. AS EVENT
GETS CLOSER HOPE TO PIN DOWN PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETTER TO USE
EXPLICIT THUNDER MENTION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 010438
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1238 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERAL DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TOMORROW THOUGH AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALL SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED...EXCEPT FOR ONE SHOWER JUST
WEST OF WARREN COUNTY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS REST OF TONIGHT.

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT...CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE THREAT
TOMORROW.

SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON DAY 2 AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SETUP
WILL BE OVER WISCONSIN...WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE LOW 70S BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30 TO 50 KTS.

CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
DURING THE TUE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH DEFINITE POPS OVER THE AREA AT TIMES.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER A FEW HOT DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODEL
BLEND HANDLED THIS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND.

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS NOW
EXISTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING WEST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR LATE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST FOR THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION BUT
OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE ITS REAPPEARANCE
FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO
BY FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT IS POISED TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY QUITE POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BELOW 10C.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 010600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1238 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SITES WILL START OUT VFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND WINDS
AROUND 3-5 KTS EXPECT TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STEEP INVERSION DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KHUF AND DIPPING PAST
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES AS WELL. KIND AND KBMG SOUNDINGS SHOW
INVERSIONS THAT ARE NOT AS STEEP. WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
AT ALL THE OUTLYING SITES WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KLAF AND KHUF.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS TO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL. AS EVENT
GETS CLOSER HOPE TO PIN DOWN PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETTER TO USE
EXPLICIT THUNDER MENTION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 010438
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1238 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERAL DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TOMORROW THOUGH AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALL SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED...EXCEPT FOR ONE SHOWER JUST
WEST OF WARREN COUNTY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS REST OF TONIGHT.

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT...CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE THREAT
TOMORROW.

SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON DAY 2 AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SETUP
WILL BE OVER WISCONSIN...WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE LOW 70S BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30 TO 50 KTS.

CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
DURING THE TUE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH DEFINITE POPS OVER THE AREA AT TIMES.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER A FEW HOT DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODEL
BLEND HANDLED THIS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND.

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS NOW
EXISTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING WEST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR LATE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST FOR THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION BUT
OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE ITS REAPPEARANCE
FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO
BY FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT IS POISED TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY QUITE POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BELOW 10C.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 010600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1238 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SITES WILL START OUT VFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND WINDS
AROUND 3-5 KTS EXPECT TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STEEP INVERSION DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KHUF AND DIPPING PAST
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES AS WELL. KIND AND KBMG SOUNDINGS SHOW
INVERSIONS THAT ARE NOT AS STEEP. WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
AT ALL THE OUTLYING SITES WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KLAF AND KHUF.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS TO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL. AS EVENT
GETS CLOSER HOPE TO PIN DOWN PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETTER TO USE
EXPLICIT THUNDER MENTION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 010229
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERAL DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TOMORROW THOUGH AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALL SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED...EXCEPT FOR ONE SHOWER JUST
WEST OF WARREN COUNTY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS REST OF TONIGHT.

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT...CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE THREAT
TOMORROW.

SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON DAY 2 AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SETUP
WILL BE OVER WISCONSIN...WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE LOW 70S BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30 TO 50 KTS.

CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
DURING THE TUE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH DEFINITE POPS OVER THE AREA AT TIMES.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER A FEW HOT DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODEL
BLEND HANDLED THIS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND.

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS NOW
EXISTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING WEST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR LATE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST FOR THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION BUT
OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE ITS REAPPEARANCE
FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO
BY FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT IS POISED TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY QUITE POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BELOW 10C.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 010300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SITES WILL START OUT VFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND WINDS
DECREASING TO ABOUT 3-5 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT TO SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP INVERSION
DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KHUF AND DIPPING PAST CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. KIND AND KBMG SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS THAT
ARE NOT AS STEEP. WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT ALL THE
OUTLYING SITES WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KLAF AND KHUF.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE JUST AFTER THE
REGULAR TAF PERIOD BUT COULD ARRIVE AT KIND BEFORE THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION. MAY INCLUDE A VCTS THEN TO START PROVIDING AN
INDICATION OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 010229
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERAL DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TOMORROW THOUGH AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALL SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED...EXCEPT FOR ONE SHOWER JUST
WEST OF WARREN COUNTY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS REST OF TONIGHT.

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT...CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE THREAT
TOMORROW.

SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON DAY 2 AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SETUP
WILL BE OVER WISCONSIN...WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE LOW 70S BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30 TO 50 KTS.

CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
DURING THE TUE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH DEFINITE POPS OVER THE AREA AT TIMES.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER A FEW HOT DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODEL
BLEND HANDLED THIS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND.

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS NOW
EXISTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING WEST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR LATE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST FOR THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION BUT
OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE ITS REAPPEARANCE
FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO
BY FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT IS POISED TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY QUITE POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BELOW 10C.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 010300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SITES WILL START OUT VFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND WINDS
DECREASING TO ABOUT 3-5 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT TO SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP INVERSION
DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KHUF AND DIPPING PAST CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. KIND AND KBMG SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS THAT
ARE NOT AS STEEP. WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT ALL THE
OUTLYING SITES WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KLAF AND KHUF.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE JUST AFTER THE
REGULAR TAF PERIOD BUT COULD ARRIVE AT KIND BEFORE THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION. MAY INCLUDE A VCTS THEN TO START PROVIDING AN
INDICATION OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 010150
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
950 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERAL DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TOMORROW THOUGH AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALL SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED...EXCEPT FOR ONE SHOWER JUST
WEST OF WARREN COUNTY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS REST OF TONIGHT.

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT...CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE THREAT
TOMORROW.

SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON DAY 2 AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SETUP
WILL BE OVER WISCONSIN...WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE LOW 70S BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30 TO 50 KTS.

CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
DURING THE TUE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH DEFINITE POPS OVER THE AREA AT TIMES.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER A FEW HOT DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODEL
BLEND HANDLED THIS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND.

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS NOW
EXISTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING WEST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR LATE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST FOR THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION BUT
OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE ITS REAPPEARANCE
FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO
BY FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT IS POISED TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY QUITE POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BELOW 10C.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 010000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 649 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SITES WILL START OUT VFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND WINDS
DECREASING TO ABOUT 3-5 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT TO SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP INVERSION
DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KHUF AND DIPPING PAST CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. KIND AND KBMG SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS THAT
ARE NOT AS STEEP. WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT ALL THE
OUTLYING SITES WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KLAF AND KHUF.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE JUST AFTER THE
REGULAR TAF PERIOD BUT COULD ARRIVE AT KIND BEFORE THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION. MAY INCLUDE A VCTS THEN TO START PROVIDING AN
INDICATION OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 010150
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
950 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERAL DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TOMORROW THOUGH AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALL SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED...EXCEPT FOR ONE SHOWER JUST
WEST OF WARREN COUNTY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS REST OF TONIGHT.

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT...CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE THREAT
TOMORROW.

SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON DAY 2 AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SETUP
WILL BE OVER WISCONSIN...WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE LOW 70S BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30 TO 50 KTS.

CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
DURING THE TUE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH DEFINITE POPS OVER THE AREA AT TIMES.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER A FEW HOT DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODEL
BLEND HANDLED THIS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND.

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS NOW
EXISTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING WEST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR LATE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST FOR THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION BUT
OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE ITS REAPPEARANCE
FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO
BY FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT IS POISED TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY QUITE POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BELOW 10C.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 010000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 649 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SITES WILL START OUT VFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND WINDS
DECREASING TO ABOUT 3-5 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT TO SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP INVERSION
DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KHUF AND DIPPING PAST CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. KIND AND KBMG SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS THAT
ARE NOT AS STEEP. WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT ALL THE
OUTLYING SITES WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KLAF AND KHUF.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE JUST AFTER THE
REGULAR TAF PERIOD BUT COULD ARRIVE AT KIND BEFORE THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION. MAY INCLUDE A VCTS THEN TO START PROVIDING AN
INDICATION OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 312301
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
701 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERAL DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TOMORROW THOUGH AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE PERSISTING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS.

PATCHY FOG COULD ALSO BE A THREAT LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER WARM WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S. THE NAM IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE GFS...SO A
BLEND OF THE 2 MODELS SEEMED BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE THREAT
TOMORROW.

SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON DAY 2 AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SETUP
WILL BE OVER WISCONSIN...WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE LOW 70S BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30 TO 50 KTS.

CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
DURING THE TUE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH DEFINITE POPS OVER THE AREA AT TIMES.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER A FEW HOT DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODEL
BLEND HANDLED THIS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND.

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS NOW
EXISTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING WEST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR LATE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST FOR THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION BUT
OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE ITS REAPPEARANCE
FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO
BY FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT IS POISED TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY QUITE POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BELOW 10C.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 010000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 649 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SITES WILL START OUT VFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND WINDS
DECREASING TO ABOUT 3-5 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT TO SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP INVERSION
DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KHUF AND DIPPING PAST CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. KIND AND KBMG SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS THAT
ARE NOT AS STEEP. WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT ALL THE
OUTLYING SITES WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KLAF AND KHUF.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE JUST AFTER THE
REGULAR TAF PERIOD BUT COULD ARRIVE AT KIND BEFORE THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION. MAY INCLUDE A VCTS THEN TO START PROVIDING AN
INDICATION OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 312301
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
701 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERAL DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TOMORROW THOUGH AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE PERSISTING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS.

PATCHY FOG COULD ALSO BE A THREAT LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER WARM WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S. THE NAM IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE GFS...SO A
BLEND OF THE 2 MODELS SEEMED BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE THREAT
TOMORROW.

SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON DAY 2 AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SETUP
WILL BE OVER WISCONSIN...WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE LOW 70S BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30 TO 50 KTS.

CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
DURING THE TUE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH DEFINITE POPS OVER THE AREA AT TIMES.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER A FEW HOT DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODEL
BLEND HANDLED THIS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND.

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS NOW
EXISTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING WEST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR LATE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST FOR THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION BUT
OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE ITS REAPPEARANCE
FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO
BY FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT IS POISED TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY QUITE POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BELOW 10C.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 010000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 649 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SITES WILL START OUT VFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND WINDS
DECREASING TO ABOUT 3-5 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT TO SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP INVERSION
DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KHUF AND DIPPING PAST CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. KIND AND KBMG SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS THAT
ARE NOT AS STEEP. WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT ALL THE
OUTLYING SITES WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KLAF AND KHUF.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE JUST AFTER THE
REGULAR TAF PERIOD BUT COULD ARRIVE AT KIND BEFORE THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION. MAY INCLUDE A VCTS THEN TO START PROVIDING AN
INDICATION OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 312027
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
426 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERAL DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TOMORROW THOUGH AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY.


&&


.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE PERSISTING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS.

PATCHY FOG COULD ALSO BE A THREAT LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER WARM WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S. THE NAM IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE GFS...SO A
BLEND OF THE 2 MODELS SEEMED BEST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE THREAT
TOMORROW.

SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON DAY 2 AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SETUP
WILL BE OVER WISCONSIN...WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE LOW 70S BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30 TO 50 KTS.

CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
DURING THE TUE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH DEFINITE POPS OVER THE AREA AT TIMES.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER A FEW HOT DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODEL
BLEND HANDLED THIS BEST.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND.

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS NOW
EXISTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING WEST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR LATE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST FOR THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION BUT
OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE ITS REAPPEARANCE
FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO
BY FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT IS POISED TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY QUITE POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BELOW 10C.



&&


.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 312100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR AND LOWER CEILINGS LIKELY TO PLAGUE THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DRIER AIR STRUGGLING TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART TO THE EAST.
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 2KFT CONTINUE ALTHOUGH STARTING TO
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE DECK. WEAK MID LEVEL VORT CONTRIBUTING TO
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WELL...WHICH MAY PERSIST AT
KBMG AND KIND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EVENTUALLY THOUGH...EXPECT
CEILINGS TO LIFT AND MAY EVEN SCATTER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD INTO THE
EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

ANY SCATTERING OF THE DECK WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS BOTH HIGHLIGHT A REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG AS WELL OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE
BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER A SHALLOW INVERSION. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIFT OUT MORE QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MIXING
COMMENCES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER 850MB JET INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOW 20S BY MIDDAY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 312027
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
426 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERAL DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TOMORROW THOUGH AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY.


&&


.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE PERSISTING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS.

PATCHY FOG COULD ALSO BE A THREAT LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER WARM WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S. THE NAM IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE GFS...SO A
BLEND OF THE 2 MODELS SEEMED BEST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE THREAT
TOMORROW.

SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON DAY 2 AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SETUP
WILL BE OVER WISCONSIN...WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE LOW 70S BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30 TO 50 KTS.

CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
DURING THE TUE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH DEFINITE POPS OVER THE AREA AT TIMES.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER A FEW HOT DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODEL
BLEND HANDLED THIS BEST.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND.

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS NOW
EXISTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING WEST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR LATE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST FOR THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION BUT
OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE ITS REAPPEARANCE
FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO
BY FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT IS POISED TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY QUITE POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BELOW 10C.



&&


.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 312100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR AND LOWER CEILINGS LIKELY TO PLAGUE THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DRIER AIR STRUGGLING TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART TO THE EAST.
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 2KFT CONTINUE ALTHOUGH STARTING TO
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE DECK. WEAK MID LEVEL VORT CONTRIBUTING TO
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WELL...WHICH MAY PERSIST AT
KBMG AND KIND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EVENTUALLY THOUGH...EXPECT
CEILINGS TO LIFT AND MAY EVEN SCATTER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD INTO THE
EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

ANY SCATTERING OF THE DECK WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS BOTH HIGHLIGHT A REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG AS WELL OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE
BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER A SHALLOW INVERSION. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIFT OUT MORE QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MIXING
COMMENCES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER 850MB JET INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOW 20S BY MIDDAY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 312000
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERAL DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TOMORROW THOUGH AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY.


&&


.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE PERSISTING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS.

PATCHY FOG COULD ALSO BE A THREAT LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER WARM WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S. THE NAM IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE GFS...SO A
BLEND OF THE 2 MODELS SEEMED BEST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE THREAT TOMORROW.

SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON DAY 2 AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SETUP
WILL BE OVER WISCONSIN...WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE LOW 70S BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30 TO 50 KTS.

CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
DURING THE TUE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH DEFINITE POPS OVER THE AREA AT TIMES.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A VERY SUBLTE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER A FEW HOT DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODEL
BLEND HANDLED THIS BEST.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND.

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS NOW
EXISTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING WEST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR LATE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST FOR THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION BUT
OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE ITS REAPPEARANCE
FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO
BY FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT IS POISED TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY QUITE POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BELOW 10C.



&&


.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MVFR AND LOWER CEILINGS LIKELY TO PLAGUE THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DRIER AIR STRUGGLING TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART TO THE EAST.
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 2KFT CONTINUE ALTHOUGH STARTING TO
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE DECK. WEAK MID LEVEL VORT CONTRIBUTING TO
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WELL...WHICH MAY PERSIST AT
KBMG AND KIND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EVENTUALLY THOUGH...EXPECT
CEILINGS TO LIFT AND MAY EVEN SCATTER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD INTO THE
EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

ANY SCATTERING OF THE DECK WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS BOTH HIGHLIGHT A REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG AS WELL OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE
BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER A SHALLOW INVERSION. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIFT OUT MORE QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MIXING
COMMENCES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER 850MB JET INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOW 20S BY MIDDAY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 312000
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERAL DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TOMORROW THOUGH AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY.


&&


.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE PERSISTING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS.

PATCHY FOG COULD ALSO BE A THREAT LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER WARM WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S. THE NAM IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE GFS...SO A
BLEND OF THE 2 MODELS SEEMED BEST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE THREAT TOMORROW.

SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON DAY 2 AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SETUP
WILL BE OVER WISCONSIN...WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE LOW 70S BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30 TO 50 KTS.

CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
DURING THE TUE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH DEFINITE POPS OVER THE AREA AT TIMES.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A VERY SUBLTE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER A FEW HOT DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODEL
BLEND HANDLED THIS BEST.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND.

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS NOW
EXISTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING WEST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR LATE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST FOR THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION BUT
OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE ITS REAPPEARANCE
FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO
BY FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT IS POISED TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY QUITE POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BELOW 10C.



&&


.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MVFR AND LOWER CEILINGS LIKELY TO PLAGUE THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DRIER AIR STRUGGLING TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART TO THE EAST.
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 2KFT CONTINUE ALTHOUGH STARTING TO
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE DECK. WEAK MID LEVEL VORT CONTRIBUTING TO
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WELL...WHICH MAY PERSIST AT
KBMG AND KIND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EVENTUALLY THOUGH...EXPECT
CEILINGS TO LIFT AND MAY EVEN SCATTER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD INTO THE
EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

ANY SCATTERING OF THE DECK WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS BOTH HIGHLIGHT A REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG AS WELL OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE
BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER A SHALLOW INVERSION. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIFT OUT MORE QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MIXING
COMMENCES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER 850MB JET INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOW 20S BY MIDDAY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 311710
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
110 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN FOR LABOR DAY AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MORE FRONTS MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...RAIN HAS BECOME
CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS
A RESULT...REDUCED POPS EVEN FURTHER OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST...STILL
EXPECTING HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. CURRENTLY...
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY 12Z EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA WHERE MORE FORCING WILL BE. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTHEAST. HI RES RAPID REFRESH STILL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

MOS LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM IS NOT DOING
WELL WITH TODAY/S PRECIPITATION SO DIDN/T REALLY TRUST IT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF OTHER MODELS.

WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING RAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA. GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS DURING THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BUT KEPT THEM IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
BEST FORCING DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY NIGHT 850MB WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO 30-40KT...AND THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THIS
FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
FORCING WILL DIMINISH. WILL GO LIKELY POPS EARLY ACROSS THE EAST
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. POPS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN CHANCE
CATEGORY.

KEPT LOW POPS TUESDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH RAIN NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SO CUT IT AS NEEDED. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND OF SIDING BETTER WITH
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE 00Z EURO FASTER TO
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON EXPANDING UPPER SOUTHERN RIDGE
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
DYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...WILL BE BRINGING POPS BACK BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 PER REGIONAL BLEND. THEN...THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING NOT AS WARM AND DRIER AIR IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MVFR AND LOWER CEILINGS LIKELY TO PLAGUE THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DRIER AIR STRUGGLING TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART TO THE EAST.
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 2KFT CONTINUE ALTHOUGH STARTING TO
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE DECK. WEAK MID LEVEL VORT CONTRIBUTING TO
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WELL...WHICH MAY PERSIST AT
KBMG AND KIND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EVENTUALLY THOUGH...EXPECT
CEILINGS TO LIFT AND MAY EVEN SCATTER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD INTO THE
EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

ANY SCATTERING OF THE DECK WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS BOTH HIGHLIGHT A REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG AS WELL OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE
BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER A SHALLOW INVERSION. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIFT OUT MORE QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MIXING
COMMENCES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER 850MB JET INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOW 20S BY MIDDAY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 311710
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
110 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN FOR LABOR DAY AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MORE FRONTS MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...RAIN HAS BECOME
CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS
A RESULT...REDUCED POPS EVEN FURTHER OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST...STILL
EXPECTING HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. CURRENTLY...
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY 12Z EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA WHERE MORE FORCING WILL BE. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTHEAST. HI RES RAPID REFRESH STILL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

MOS LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM IS NOT DOING
WELL WITH TODAY/S PRECIPITATION SO DIDN/T REALLY TRUST IT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF OTHER MODELS.

WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING RAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA. GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS DURING THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BUT KEPT THEM IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
BEST FORCING DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY NIGHT 850MB WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO 30-40KT...AND THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THIS
FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
FORCING WILL DIMINISH. WILL GO LIKELY POPS EARLY ACROSS THE EAST
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. POPS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN CHANCE
CATEGORY.

KEPT LOW POPS TUESDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH RAIN NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SO CUT IT AS NEEDED. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND OF SIDING BETTER WITH
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE 00Z EURO FASTER TO
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON EXPANDING UPPER SOUTHERN RIDGE
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
DYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...WILL BE BRINGING POPS BACK BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 PER REGIONAL BLEND. THEN...THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING NOT AS WARM AND DRIER AIR IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MVFR AND LOWER CEILINGS LIKELY TO PLAGUE THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DRIER AIR STRUGGLING TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART TO THE EAST.
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 2KFT CONTINUE ALTHOUGH STARTING TO
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE DECK. WEAK MID LEVEL VORT CONTRIBUTING TO
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WELL...WHICH MAY PERSIST AT
KBMG AND KIND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EVENTUALLY THOUGH...EXPECT
CEILINGS TO LIFT AND MAY EVEN SCATTER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD INTO THE
EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

ANY SCATTERING OF THE DECK WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS BOTH HIGHLIGHT A REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG AS WELL OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE
BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER A SHALLOW INVERSION. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIFT OUT MORE QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MIXING
COMMENCES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER 850MB JET INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOW 20S BY MIDDAY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 311425
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN FOR LABOR DAY AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MORE FRONTS MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...RAIN HAS BECOME
CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS
A RESULT...REDUCED POPS EVEN FURTHER OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST...STILL
EXPECTING HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. CURRENTLY...
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY 12Z EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA WHERE MORE FORCING WILL BE. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTHEAST. HI RES RAPID REFRESH STILL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

MOS LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM IS NOT DOING
WELL WITH TODAY/S PRECIPITATION SO DIDN/T REALLY TRUST IT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF OTHER MODELS.

WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING RAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA. GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS DURING THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BUT KEPT THEM IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
BEST FORCING DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY NIGHT 850MB WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO 30-40KT...AND THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THIS
FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
FORCING WILL DIMINISH. WILL GO LIKELY POPS EARLY ACROSS THE EAST
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. POPS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN CHANCE
CATEGORY.

KEPT LOW POPS TUESDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH RAIN NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SO CUT IT AS NEEDED. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND OF SIDING BETTER WITH
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE 00Z EURO FASTER TO
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON EXPANDING UPPER SOUTHERN RIDGE
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
DYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...WILL BE BRINGING POPS BACK BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 PER REGIONAL BLEND. THEN...THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING NOT AS WARM AND DRIER AIR IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE IMPACTING KBMG AND KIND WITH IFR
CEILINGS AND LOWER AT ALL TERMINALS AS OF 14Z. EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO
CONTINUE WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING SATURATED LOWER LEVELS...
WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUILDS IN.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
IFR OR PERHAPS CEILINGS THROUGH 16Z ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS.
THEN...AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...COULD SEE A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON STORMS EXCEPT CHANCES TOO LOW AT LAF. WILL GO WITH VCSH
AND THEN VCTS AFTER 16Z. THEN...MORE MVFR OR WORSE CEILINGS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS TODAY AND SOUTH 6 KNOTS
OR LESS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 311425
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN FOR LABOR DAY AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MORE FRONTS MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...RAIN HAS BECOME
CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS
A RESULT...REDUCED POPS EVEN FURTHER OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST...STILL
EXPECTING HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. CURRENTLY...
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY 12Z EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA WHERE MORE FORCING WILL BE. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTHEAST. HI RES RAPID REFRESH STILL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

MOS LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM IS NOT DOING
WELL WITH TODAY/S PRECIPITATION SO DIDN/T REALLY TRUST IT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF OTHER MODELS.

WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING RAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA. GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS DURING THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BUT KEPT THEM IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
BEST FORCING DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY NIGHT 850MB WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO 30-40KT...AND THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THIS
FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
FORCING WILL DIMINISH. WILL GO LIKELY POPS EARLY ACROSS THE EAST
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. POPS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN CHANCE
CATEGORY.

KEPT LOW POPS TUESDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH RAIN NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SO CUT IT AS NEEDED. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND OF SIDING BETTER WITH
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE 00Z EURO FASTER TO
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON EXPANDING UPPER SOUTHERN RIDGE
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
DYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...WILL BE BRINGING POPS BACK BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 PER REGIONAL BLEND. THEN...THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING NOT AS WARM AND DRIER AIR IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE IMPACTING KBMG AND KIND WITH IFR
CEILINGS AND LOWER AT ALL TERMINALS AS OF 14Z. EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO
CONTINUE WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING SATURATED LOWER LEVELS...
WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUILDS IN.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
IFR OR PERHAPS CEILINGS THROUGH 16Z ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS.
THEN...AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...COULD SEE A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON STORMS EXCEPT CHANCES TOO LOW AT LAF. WILL GO WITH VCSH
AND THEN VCTS AFTER 16Z. THEN...MORE MVFR OR WORSE CEILINGS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS TODAY AND SOUTH 6 KNOTS
OR LESS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 311418
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1018 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN FOR LABOR DAY AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MORE FRONTS MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...RAIN HAS BECOME
CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS
A RESULT...REDUCED POPS EVEN FURTHER OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST...STILL
EXPECTING HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. CURRENTLY...
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY 12Z EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA WHERE MORE FORCING WILL BE. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTHEAST. HI RES RAPID REFRESH STILL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

MOS LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM IS NOT DOING
WELL WITH TODAY/S PRECIPITATION SO DIDN/T REALLY TRUST IT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF OTHER MODELS.

WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING RAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA. GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS DURING THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BUT KEPT THEM IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
BEST FORCING DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY NIGHT 850MB WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO 30-40KT...AND THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THIS
FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
FORCING WILL DIMINISH. WILL GO LIKELY POPS EARLY ACROSS THE EAST
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. POPS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN CHANCE
CATEGORY.

KEPT LOW POPS TUESDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH RAIN NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SO CUT IT AS NEEDED. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND OF SIDING BETTER WITH
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE 00Z EURO FASTER TO
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON EXPANDING UPPER SOUTHERN RIDGE
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
DYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...WILL BE BRINGING POPS BACK BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 PER REGIONAL BLEND. THEN...THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING NOT AS WARM AND DRIER AIR IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
IFR OR PERHAPS CEILINGS THROUGH 16Z ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS.
THEN...AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...COULD SEE A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON STORMS EXCEPT CHANCES TOO LOW AT LAF. WILL GO WITH VCSH
AND THEN VCTS AFTER 16Z. THEN...MORE MVFR OR WORSE CEILINGS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS TODAY AND SOUTH 6 KNOTS
OR LESS TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 311418
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1018 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN FOR LABOR DAY AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MORE FRONTS MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...RAIN HAS BECOME
CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS
A RESULT...REDUCED POPS EVEN FURTHER OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST...STILL
EXPECTING HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. CURRENTLY...
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY 12Z EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA WHERE MORE FORCING WILL BE. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTHEAST. HI RES RAPID REFRESH STILL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

MOS LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM IS NOT DOING
WELL WITH TODAY/S PRECIPITATION SO DIDN/T REALLY TRUST IT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF OTHER MODELS.

WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING RAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA. GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS DURING THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BUT KEPT THEM IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
BEST FORCING DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY NIGHT 850MB WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO 30-40KT...AND THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THIS
FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
FORCING WILL DIMINISH. WILL GO LIKELY POPS EARLY ACROSS THE EAST
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. POPS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN CHANCE
CATEGORY.

KEPT LOW POPS TUESDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH RAIN NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SO CUT IT AS NEEDED. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND OF SIDING BETTER WITH
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE 00Z EURO FASTER TO
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON EXPANDING UPPER SOUTHERN RIDGE
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
DYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...WILL BE BRINGING POPS BACK BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 PER REGIONAL BLEND. THEN...THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING NOT AS WARM AND DRIER AIR IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
IFR OR PERHAPS CEILINGS THROUGH 16Z ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS.
THEN...AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...COULD SEE A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON STORMS EXCEPT CHANCES TOO LOW AT LAF. WILL GO WITH VCSH
AND THEN VCTS AFTER 16Z. THEN...MORE MVFR OR WORSE CEILINGS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS TODAY AND SOUTH 6 KNOTS
OR LESS TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 311051
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
650 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN FOR LABOR DAY AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MORE FRONTS MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT FORCING TO DECREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.

BY 12Z EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA WHERE MORE FORCING WILL BE. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTHEAST. HI RES RAPID REFRESH STILL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

MOS LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM IS NOT DOING
WELL WITH TODAY/S PRECIPITATION SO DIDN/T REALLY TRUST IT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF OTHER MODELS.

WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING RAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA. GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS DURING THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BUT KEPT THEM IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
BEST FORCING DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY NIGHT 850MB WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO 30-40KT...AND THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THIS
FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
FORCING WILL DIMINISH. WILL GO LIKELY POPS EARLY ACROSS THE EAST
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. POPS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN CHANCE
CATEGORY.

KEPT LOW POPS TUESDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH RAIN NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SO CUT IT AS NEEDED. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND OF SIDING BETTER WITH
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE 00Z EURO FASTER TO
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON EXPANDING UPPER SOUTHERN RIDGE
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
DYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...WILL BE BRINGING POPS BACK BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 PER REGIONAL BLEND. THEN...THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING NOT AS WARM AND DRIER AIR IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
IFR OR PERHAPS CEILINGS THROUGH 16Z ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS.
THEN...AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...COULD SEE A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON STORMS EXCEPT CHANCES TOO LOW AT LAF. WILL GO WITH VCSH
AND THEN VCTS AFTER 16Z. THEN...MORE MVFR OR WORSE CEILINGS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS TODAY AND SOUTH 6 KNOTS
OR LESS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS















000
FXUS63 KIND 311051
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
650 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN FOR LABOR DAY AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MORE FRONTS MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT FORCING TO DECREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.

BY 12Z EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA WHERE MORE FORCING WILL BE. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTHEAST. HI RES RAPID REFRESH STILL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

MOS LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM IS NOT DOING
WELL WITH TODAY/S PRECIPITATION SO DIDN/T REALLY TRUST IT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF OTHER MODELS.

WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING RAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA. GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS DURING THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BUT KEPT THEM IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
BEST FORCING DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY NIGHT 850MB WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO 30-40KT...AND THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THIS
FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
FORCING WILL DIMINISH. WILL GO LIKELY POPS EARLY ACROSS THE EAST
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. POPS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN CHANCE
CATEGORY.

KEPT LOW POPS TUESDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH RAIN NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SO CUT IT AS NEEDED. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND OF SIDING BETTER WITH
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE 00Z EURO FASTER TO
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON EXPANDING UPPER SOUTHERN RIDGE
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
DYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...WILL BE BRINGING POPS BACK BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 PER REGIONAL BLEND. THEN...THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING NOT AS WARM AND DRIER AIR IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
IFR OR PERHAPS CEILINGS THROUGH 16Z ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS.
THEN...AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...COULD SEE A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON STORMS EXCEPT CHANCES TOO LOW AT LAF. WILL GO WITH VCSH
AND THEN VCTS AFTER 16Z. THEN...MORE MVFR OR WORSE CEILINGS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS TODAY AND SOUTH 6 KNOTS
OR LESS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 310840
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
424 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN FOR LABOR DAY AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MORE FRONTS MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT FORCING TO DECREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.

BY 12Z EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA WHERE MORE FORCING WILL BE. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTHEAST. HI RES RAPID REFRESH STILL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

MOS LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM IS NOT DOING
WELL WITH TODAY/S PRECIPITATION SO DIDN/T REALLY TRUST IT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF OTHER MODELS.

WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING RAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA. GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS DURING THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BUT KEPT THEM IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
BEST FORCING DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY NIGHT 850MB WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO 30-40KT...AND THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THIS
FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
FORCING WILL DIMINISH. WILL GO LIKELY POPS EARLY ACROSS THE EAST
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. POPS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN CHANCE
CATEGORY.

KEPT LOW POPS TUESDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH RAIN NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SO CUT IT AS NEEDED. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND OF SIDING BETTER WITH
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE 00Z EURO FASTER TO
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON EXPANDING UPPER SOUTHERN RIDGE
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
DYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...WILL BE BRINGING POPS BACK BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 PER REGIONAL BLEND. THEN...THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING NOT AS WARM AND DRIER AIR IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 310900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TAF LOOKS GOOD...NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

KLAF COULD GET EAST ENOUGH TO IMPACT KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS THERE WITH TEMPO THUNDER FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KHUF AND KIND THINK DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS /AROUND
1500 FT/ LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS
COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL BUT STILL MVFR. LOWER
CEILINGS COULD HANG AROUND UNTIL AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING UP.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AROUND 5-10
KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 310840
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
424 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN FOR LABOR DAY AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MORE FRONTS MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT FORCING TO DECREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.

BY 12Z EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA WHERE MORE FORCING WILL BE. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTHEAST. HI RES RAPID REFRESH STILL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

MOS LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM IS NOT DOING
WELL WITH TODAY/S PRECIPITATION SO DIDN/T REALLY TRUST IT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF OTHER MODELS.

WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING RAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA. GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS DURING THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BUT KEPT THEM IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
BEST FORCING DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY NIGHT 850MB WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO 30-40KT...AND THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THIS
FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
FORCING WILL DIMINISH. WILL GO LIKELY POPS EARLY ACROSS THE EAST
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. POPS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN CHANCE
CATEGORY.

KEPT LOW POPS TUESDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH RAIN NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SO CUT IT AS NEEDED. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND OF SIDING BETTER WITH
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE 00Z EURO FASTER TO
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON EXPANDING UPPER SOUTHERN RIDGE
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
DYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...WILL BE BRINGING POPS BACK BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 PER REGIONAL BLEND. THEN...THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING NOT AS WARM AND DRIER AIR IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 310900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TAF LOOKS GOOD...NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

KLAF COULD GET EAST ENOUGH TO IMPACT KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS THERE WITH TEMPO THUNDER FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KHUF AND KIND THINK DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS /AROUND
1500 FT/ LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS
COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL BUT STILL MVFR. LOWER
CEILINGS COULD HANG AROUND UNTIL AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING UP.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AROUND 5-10
KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 310722
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN FOR LABOR DAY AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MORE FRONTS MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT FORCING TO DECREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.

BY 12Z EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA WHERE MORE FORCING WILL BE. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTHEAST. HI RES RAPID REFRESH STILL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

MOS LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM IS NOT DOING
WELL WITH TODAY/S PRECIPITATION SO DIDN/T REALLY TRUST IT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF OTHER MODELS.

WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING RAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA. GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS DURING THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BUT KEPT THEM IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
BEST FORCING DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY NIGHT 850MB WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO 30-40KT...AND THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THIS
FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
FORCING WILL DIMINISH. WILL GO LIKELY POPS EARLY ACROSS THE EAST
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. POPS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN CHANCE
CATEGORY.

KEPT LOW POPS TUESDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH RAIN NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SO CUT IT AS NEEDED. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND OF SIDING BETTER WITH
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE 00Z EURO FASTER TO
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON EXPANDING UPPER SOUTHERN RIDGE
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
DYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...WILL BE BRINGING POPS BACK BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 PER REGIONAL BLEND. THEN...THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING NOT AS WARM AND DRIER AIR IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 310600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

KLAF COULD GET EAST ENOUGH TO IMPACT KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS THERE WITH TEMPO THUNDER FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KHUF AND KIND THINK DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS /AROUND
1500 FT/ LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS
COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL BUT STILL MVFR. LOWER
CEILINGS COULD HANG AROUND UNTIL AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING UP.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AROUND 5-10
KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 310722
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN FOR LABOR DAY AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MORE FRONTS MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT FORCING TO DECREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.

BY 12Z EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA WHERE MORE FORCING WILL BE. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTHEAST. HI RES RAPID REFRESH STILL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

MOS LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM IS NOT DOING
WELL WITH TODAY/S PRECIPITATION SO DIDN/T REALLY TRUST IT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF OTHER MODELS.

WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING RAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA. GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS DURING THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BUT KEPT THEM IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
BEST FORCING DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY NIGHT 850MB WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO 30-40KT...AND THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THIS
FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
FORCING WILL DIMINISH. WILL GO LIKELY POPS EARLY ACROSS THE EAST
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. POPS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN CHANCE
CATEGORY.

KEPT LOW POPS TUESDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH RAIN NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SO CUT IT AS NEEDED. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND OF SIDING BETTER WITH
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE 00Z EURO FASTER TO
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON EXPANDING UPPER SOUTHERN RIDGE
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
DYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...WILL BE BRINGING POPS BACK BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 PER REGIONAL BLEND. THEN...THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING NOT AS WARM AND DRIER AIR IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 310600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

KLAF COULD GET EAST ENOUGH TO IMPACT KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS THERE WITH TEMPO THUNDER FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KHUF AND KIND THINK DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS /AROUND
1500 FT/ LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS
COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL BUT STILL MVFR. LOWER
CEILINGS COULD HANG AROUND UNTIL AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING UP.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AROUND 5-10
KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 310655
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALSO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST INDIANA.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE TWO AREAS...IT HAS
BEEN QUIET SO FAR TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS MAY BRUSH OUR FAR NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  AS A RESULT WILL DOWNPLAY RAIN CHANCES SOME
OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE SOME AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THUS WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
ON TRACK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES...PARTICULARLY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY INTO QUEBEC WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE ONGOING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AT BEST AND FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA
WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. MONDAY MORNING WILL START OUT DRY AS WELL BEFORE
FOCUS SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP WAVE ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AND SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS BL SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ALL NIGHT
AND LIKELY POPS REMAIN WARRANTED. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

TEMPS...MAVMOS GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS INITIALLY ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS DOWN A BIT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WITH CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LIKELY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER MAV FOR
HIGHS. USED CONSMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS
SIMILAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND OF SIDING BETTER WITH
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE 00Z EURO FASTER TO
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON EXPANDING UPPER SOUTHERN RIDGE
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
DYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...WILL BE BRINGING POPS BACK BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 PER REGIONAL BLEND. THEN...THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING NOT AS WARM AND DRIER AIR IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 310600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

KLAF COULD GET EAST ENOUGH TO IMPACT KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS THERE WITH TEMPO THUNDER FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KHUF AND KIND THINK DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS /AROUND
1500 FT/ LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS
COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL BUT STILL MVFR. LOWER
CEILINGS COULD HANG AROUND UNTIL AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING UP.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AROUND 5-10
KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS















000
FXUS63 KIND 310655
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALSO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST INDIANA.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE TWO AREAS...IT HAS
BEEN QUIET SO FAR TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS MAY BRUSH OUR FAR NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  AS A RESULT WILL DOWNPLAY RAIN CHANCES SOME
OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE SOME AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THUS WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
ON TRACK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES...PARTICULARLY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY INTO QUEBEC WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE ONGOING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AT BEST AND FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA
WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. MONDAY MORNING WILL START OUT DRY AS WELL BEFORE
FOCUS SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP WAVE ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AND SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS BL SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ALL NIGHT
AND LIKELY POPS REMAIN WARRANTED. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

TEMPS...MAVMOS GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS INITIALLY ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS DOWN A BIT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WITH CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LIKELY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER MAV FOR
HIGHS. USED CONSMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS
SIMILAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND OF SIDING BETTER WITH
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE 00Z EURO FASTER TO
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON EXPANDING UPPER SOUTHERN RIDGE
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
DYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...WILL BE BRINGING POPS BACK BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 PER REGIONAL BLEND. THEN...THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING NOT AS WARM AND DRIER AIR IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 310600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

KLAF COULD GET EAST ENOUGH TO IMPACT KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS THERE WITH TEMPO THUNDER FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KHUF AND KIND THINK DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS /AROUND
1500 FT/ LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS
COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL BUT STILL MVFR. LOWER
CEILINGS COULD HANG AROUND UNTIL AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING UP.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AROUND 5-10
KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 310422
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1222 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALSO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST INDIANA.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE TWO AREAS...IT HAS
BEEN QUIET SO FAR TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS MAY BRUSH OUR FAR NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  AS A RESULT WILL DOWNPLAY RAIN CHANCES SOME
OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE SOME AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THUS WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
ON TRACK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES...PARTICULARLY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY INTO QUEBEC WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE ONGOING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AT BEST AND FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA
WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. MONDAY MORNING WILL START OUT DRY AS WELL BEFORE
FOCUS SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP WAVE ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AND SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS BL SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ALL NIGHT
AND LIKELY POPS REMAIN WARRANTED. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

TEMPS...MAVMOS GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS INITIALLY ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS DOWN A BIT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WITH CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LIKELY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER MAV FOR
HIGHS. USED CONSMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS
SIMILAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT.  NONETHELESS...KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  BY THURSDAY...A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN...AND A WARM FRONT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVEN FURTHER BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WARM UP AFTER THE COLD
FRONT EARLIER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD....TO MID TO UPPER 60S BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 310600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

KLAF COULD GET EAST ENOUGH TO IMPACT KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS THERE WITH TEMPO THUNDER FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KHUF AND KIND THINK DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS /AROUND
1500 FT/ LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS
COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL BUT STILL MVFR. LOWER
CEILINGS COULD HANG AROUND UNTIL AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING UP.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AROUND 5-10
KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 310422
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1222 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALSO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST INDIANA.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE TWO AREAS...IT HAS
BEEN QUIET SO FAR TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS MAY BRUSH OUR FAR NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  AS A RESULT WILL DOWNPLAY RAIN CHANCES SOME
OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE SOME AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THUS WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
ON TRACK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES...PARTICULARLY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY INTO QUEBEC WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE ONGOING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AT BEST AND FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA
WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. MONDAY MORNING WILL START OUT DRY AS WELL BEFORE
FOCUS SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP WAVE ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AND SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS BL SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ALL NIGHT
AND LIKELY POPS REMAIN WARRANTED. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

TEMPS...MAVMOS GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS INITIALLY ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS DOWN A BIT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WITH CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LIKELY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER MAV FOR
HIGHS. USED CONSMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS
SIMILAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT.  NONETHELESS...KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  BY THURSDAY...A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN...AND A WARM FRONT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVEN FURTHER BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WARM UP AFTER THE COLD
FRONT EARLIER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD....TO MID TO UPPER 60S BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 310600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

KLAF COULD GET EAST ENOUGH TO IMPACT KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS THERE WITH TEMPO THUNDER FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KHUF AND KIND THINK DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS /AROUND
1500 FT/ LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS
COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL BUT STILL MVFR. LOWER
CEILINGS COULD HANG AROUND UNTIL AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING UP.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AROUND 5-10
KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 310235
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1035 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALSO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST INDIANA.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE TWO AREAS...IT HAS
BEEN QUIET SO FAR TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS MAY BRUSH OUR FAR NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  AS A RESULT WILL DOWNPLAY RAIN CHANCES SOME
OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE SOME AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THUS WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
ON TRACK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES...PARTICULARLY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY INTO QUEBEC WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE ONGOING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AT BEST AND FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA
WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. MONDAY MORNING WILL START OUT DRY AS WELL BEFORE
FOCUS SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP WAVE ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AND SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS BL SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ALL NIGHT
AND LIKELY POPS REMAIN WARRANTED. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

TEMPS...MAVMOS GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS INITIALLY ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS DOWN A BIT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WITH CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LIKELY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER MAV FOR
HIGHS. USED CONSMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS
SIMILAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT.  NONETHELESS...KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  BY THURSDAY...A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN...AND A WARM FRONT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVEN FURTHER BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WARM UP AFTER THE COLD
FRONT EARLIER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD....TO MID TO UPPER 60S BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 310300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1035 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE LINE OF STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST OF KLAF COULD GET EAST ENOUGH TO
IMPACT KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY VCTS THERE WITH TEMPO THUNDER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KHUF
AND KIND THINK DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE NIGHT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS /AROUND 1500 FT/
LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS COULD SEE
SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL BUT STILL MVFR.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AROUND 5-10
KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 310235
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1035 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALSO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST INDIANA.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE TWO AREAS...IT HAS
BEEN QUIET SO FAR TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS MAY BRUSH OUR FAR NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  AS A RESULT WILL DOWNPLAY RAIN CHANCES SOME
OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE SOME AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THUS WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
ON TRACK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES...PARTICULARLY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY INTO QUEBEC WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE ONGOING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AT BEST AND FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA
WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. MONDAY MORNING WILL START OUT DRY AS WELL BEFORE
FOCUS SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP WAVE ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AND SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS BL SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ALL NIGHT
AND LIKELY POPS REMAIN WARRANTED. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

TEMPS...MAVMOS GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS INITIALLY ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS DOWN A BIT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WITH CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LIKELY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER MAV FOR
HIGHS. USED CONSMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS
SIMILAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT.  NONETHELESS...KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  BY THURSDAY...A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN...AND A WARM FRONT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVEN FURTHER BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WARM UP AFTER THE COLD
FRONT EARLIER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD....TO MID TO UPPER 60S BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 310300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1035 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE LINE OF STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST OF KLAF COULD GET EAST ENOUGH TO
IMPACT KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY VCTS THERE WITH TEMPO THUNDER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KHUF
AND KIND THINK DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE NIGHT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS /AROUND 1500 FT/
LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS COULD SEE
SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL BUT STILL MVFR.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AROUND 5-10
KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 310153
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALSO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST INDIANA.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE TWO AREAS...IT HAS
BEEN QUIET SO FAR TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS MAY BRUSH OUR FAR NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  AS A RESULT WILL DOWNPLAY RAIN CHANCES SOME
OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE SOME AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THUS WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
ON TRACK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES...PARTICULARLY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY INTO QUEBEC WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE ONGOING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AT BEST AND FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA
WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. MONDAY MORNING WILL START OUT DRY AS WELL BEFORE
FOCUS SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP WAVE ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AND SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS BL SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ALL NIGHT
AND LIKELY POPS REMAIN WARRANTED. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

TEMPS...MAVMOS GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS INITIALLY ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS DOWN A BIT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WITH CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LIKELY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER MAV FOR
HIGHS. USED CONSMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS
SIMILAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT.  NONETHELESS...KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  BY THURSDAY...A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN...AND A WARM FRONT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVEN FURTHER BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WARM UP AFTER THE COLD
FRONT EARLIER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD....TO MID TO UPPER 60S BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 310000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SITES
MOVING NORTHEAST AND A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SITES AS WELL. THE LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THINK THIS WILL CAUSE THE
SOUTHERN SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY A BIT AS WELL AS
SLOWLY EXPAND NORTHWARD. THINK THIS COULD IMPACT KBMG AFTER 3-5Z
FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER DIRECTLY IMPACTING
KBMG NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR EXPLICIT MENTION AND THUS WILL INCLUDE
VCTS THERE. THE LINE OF STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST COULD GET EAST ENOUGH
TO IMPACT KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS THERE WITH POSSIBLY AN EXPLICIT THUNDER
MENTION FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KHUF AND KIND THINK DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 6Z. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS
/AROUND 1500 FT/ STARTING AROUND 3-6Z AND WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS
COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL AROUND THE SAME TIME
BUT STILL MVFR.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
SLOWLY DECREASE FROM 10-15 WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS TO AROUND 5-10 KTS
WITHIN A FEW HOURS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 310153
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALSO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST INDIANA.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE TWO AREAS...IT HAS
BEEN QUIET SO FAR TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS MAY BRUSH OUR FAR NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  AS A RESULT WILL DOWNPLAY RAIN CHANCES SOME
OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE SOME AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THUS WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
ON TRACK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES...PARTICULARLY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY INTO QUEBEC WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE ONGOING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AT BEST AND FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA
WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. MONDAY MORNING WILL START OUT DRY AS WELL BEFORE
FOCUS SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP WAVE ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AND SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS BL SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ALL NIGHT
AND LIKELY POPS REMAIN WARRANTED. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

TEMPS...MAVMOS GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS INITIALLY ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS DOWN A BIT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WITH CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LIKELY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER MAV FOR
HIGHS. USED CONSMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS
SIMILAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT.  NONETHELESS...KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  BY THURSDAY...A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN...AND A WARM FRONT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVEN FURTHER BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WARM UP AFTER THE COLD
FRONT EARLIER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD....TO MID TO UPPER 60S BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 310000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SITES
MOVING NORTHEAST AND A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SITES AS WELL. THE LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THINK THIS WILL CAUSE THE
SOUTHERN SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY A BIT AS WELL AS
SLOWLY EXPAND NORTHWARD. THINK THIS COULD IMPACT KBMG AFTER 3-5Z
FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER DIRECTLY IMPACTING
KBMG NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR EXPLICIT MENTION AND THUS WILL INCLUDE
VCTS THERE. THE LINE OF STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST COULD GET EAST ENOUGH
TO IMPACT KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS THERE WITH POSSIBLY AN EXPLICIT THUNDER
MENTION FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KHUF AND KIND THINK DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 6Z. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS
/AROUND 1500 FT/ STARTING AROUND 3-6Z AND WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS
COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL AROUND THE SAME TIME
BUT STILL MVFR.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
SLOWLY DECREASE FROM 10-15 WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS TO AROUND 5-10 KTS
WITHIN A FEW HOURS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 302300
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
700 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO IMPACT SOUTHERN INDIANA AS PLUME OF DEEP GULF
MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SOUTHEAST UPPER RIDGE.
TEMPS HAD BEEN HELD DOWN BY CLOUDS SO FAR...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S AS OF 19Z.

SOUTHEAST RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUCKLE A BIT IN RESPONSE TO THE WAVE
ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS HELPING TO SHIFT
THE MOISTURE PLUME CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER...AND HAVE SEEN A
DOWNWARD TREND IN RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS CONVECTION
REFOCUSING OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO A WEAK WAVE ALOFT. SCATTERED CONVECTION ALSO DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF A SUBTLE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WITHIN AN
ATMOSPHERE WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
INCREASING AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY EVENING... EXPECT BOTH OF THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST RESPECTIVELY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT
THROUGH THE EVENING.

WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING REMAIN THE PRIMARY IMPACTS INTO
THE EVENING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE STORMS OVER ILLINOIS AS THEY
MOVE E/NE INTO THE REGION. CERTAINLY COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME
OF THE STRONGER STORMS BUT OVERALL...POORER LAPSE RATES AND LESS
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP STORMS IN A MULTICELLULAR SUBSEVERE MODE.

CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY SINK INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
SHIFTS EAST AND ENABLES DRIER AIR TO BEGIN ADVECTING IN. ANOTHER
WAVE ALOFT ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL KEEP PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL MAINTAIN 50-60 POPS
SOUTH OF I-70.

TEMPS...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND PRECIP...
LEANED TOWARDS WARMER METMOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES...PARTICULARLY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY INTO QUEBEC WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE ONGOING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AT BEST AND FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA
WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. MONDAY MORNING WILL START OUT DRY AS WELL BEFORE
FOCUS SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP WAVE ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AND SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS BL SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ALL NIGHT
AND LIKELY POPS REMAIN WARRANTED. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

TEMPS...MAVMOS GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS INITIALLY ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS DOWN A BIT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WITH CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LIKELY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER MAV FOR
HIGHS. USED CONSMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS
SIMILAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT.  NONETHELESS...KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  BY THURSDAY...A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN...AND A WARM FRONT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVEN FURTHER BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WARM UP AFTER THE COLD
FRONT EARLIER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD....TO MID TO UPPER 60S BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 310000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SITES
MOVING NORTHEAST AND A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SITES AS WELL. THE LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THINK THIS WILL CAUSE THE
SOUTHERN SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY A BIT AS WELL AS
SLOWLY EXPAND NORTHWARD. THINK THIS COULD IMPACT KBMG AFTER 3-5Z
FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER DIRECTLY IMPACTING
KBMG NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR EXPLICIT MENTION AND THUS WILL INCLUDE
VCTS THERE. THE LINE OF STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST COULD GET EAST ENOUGH
TO IMPACT KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS THERE WITH POSSIBLY AN EXPLICIT THUNDER
MENTION FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KHUF AND KIND THINK DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 6Z. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS
/AROUND 1500 FT/ STARTING AROUND 3-6Z AND WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS
COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL AROUND THE SAME TIME
BUT STILL MVFR.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
SLOWLY DECREASE FROM 10-15 WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS TO AROUND 5-10 KTS
WITHIN A FEW HOURS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 302300
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
700 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO IMPACT SOUTHERN INDIANA AS PLUME OF DEEP GULF
MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SOUTHEAST UPPER RIDGE.
TEMPS HAD BEEN HELD DOWN BY CLOUDS SO FAR...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S AS OF 19Z.

SOUTHEAST RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUCKLE A BIT IN RESPONSE TO THE WAVE
ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS HELPING TO SHIFT
THE MOISTURE PLUME CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER...AND HAVE SEEN A
DOWNWARD TREND IN RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS CONVECTION
REFOCUSING OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO A WEAK WAVE ALOFT. SCATTERED CONVECTION ALSO DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF A SUBTLE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WITHIN AN
ATMOSPHERE WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
INCREASING AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY EVENING... EXPECT BOTH OF THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST RESPECTIVELY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT
THROUGH THE EVENING.

WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING REMAIN THE PRIMARY IMPACTS INTO
THE EVENING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE STORMS OVER ILLINOIS AS THEY
MOVE E/NE INTO THE REGION. CERTAINLY COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME
OF THE STRONGER STORMS BUT OVERALL...POORER LAPSE RATES AND LESS
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP STORMS IN A MULTICELLULAR SUBSEVERE MODE.

CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY SINK INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
SHIFTS EAST AND ENABLES DRIER AIR TO BEGIN ADVECTING IN. ANOTHER
WAVE ALOFT ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL KEEP PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL MAINTAIN 50-60 POPS
SOUTH OF I-70.

TEMPS...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND PRECIP...
LEANED TOWARDS WARMER METMOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES...PARTICULARLY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY INTO QUEBEC WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE ONGOING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AT BEST AND FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA
WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. MONDAY MORNING WILL START OUT DRY AS WELL BEFORE
FOCUS SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP WAVE ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AND SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS BL SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ALL NIGHT
AND LIKELY POPS REMAIN WARRANTED. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

TEMPS...MAVMOS GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS INITIALLY ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS DOWN A BIT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WITH CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LIKELY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER MAV FOR
HIGHS. USED CONSMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS
SIMILAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT.  NONETHELESS...KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  BY THURSDAY...A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN...AND A WARM FRONT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVEN FURTHER BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WARM UP AFTER THE COLD
FRONT EARLIER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD....TO MID TO UPPER 60S BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 310000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SITES
MOVING NORTHEAST AND A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SITES AS WELL. THE LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THINK THIS WILL CAUSE THE
SOUTHERN SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY A BIT AS WELL AS
SLOWLY EXPAND NORTHWARD. THINK THIS COULD IMPACT KBMG AFTER 3-5Z
FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER DIRECTLY IMPACTING
KBMG NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR EXPLICIT MENTION AND THUS WILL INCLUDE
VCTS THERE. THE LINE OF STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST COULD GET EAST ENOUGH
TO IMPACT KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS THERE WITH POSSIBLY AN EXPLICIT THUNDER
MENTION FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KHUF AND KIND THINK DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 6Z. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS
/AROUND 1500 FT/ STARTING AROUND 3-6Z AND WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS
COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL AROUND THE SAME TIME
BUT STILL MVFR.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
SLOWLY DECREASE FROM 10-15 WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS TO AROUND 5-10 KTS
WITHIN A FEW HOURS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 302052
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
450 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO IMPACT SOUTHERN INDIANA AS PLUME OF DEEP GULF
MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SOUTHEAST UPPER RIDGE.
TEMPS HAD BEEN HELD DOWN BY CLOUDS SO FAR...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S AS OF 19Z.

SOUTHEAST RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUCKLE A BIT IN RESPONSE TO THE WAVE
ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS HELPING TO SHIFT
THE MOISTURE PLUME CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER...AND HAVE SEEN A
DOWNWARD TREND IN RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS CONVECTION
REFOCUSING OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO A WEAK WAVE ALOFT. SCATTERED CONVECTION ALSO DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF A SUBTLE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WITHIN AN
ATMOSPHERE WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
INCREASING AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY EVENING... EXPECT BOTH OF THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST RESPECTIVELY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT
THROUGH THE EVENING.

WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING REMAIN THE PRIMARY IMPACTS INTO
THE EVENING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE STORMS OVER ILLINOIS AS THEY
MOVE E/NE INTO THE REGION. CERTAINLY COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME
OF THE STRONGER STORMS BUT OVERALL...POORER LAPSE RATES AND LESS
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP STORMS IN A MULTICELLULAR SUBSEVERE MODE.

CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY SINK INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
SHIFTS EAST AND ENABLES DRIER AIR TO BEGIN ADVECTING IN. ANOTHER
WAVE ALOFT ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL KEEP PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL MAINTAIN 50-60 POPS
SOUTH OF I-70.

TEMPS...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND PRECIP...
LEANED TOWARDS WARMER METMOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES...PARTICULARLY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY INTO QUEBEC WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE ONGOING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AT BEST AND FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA
WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. MONDAY MORNING WILL START OUT DRY AS WELL BEFORE
FOCUS SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP WAVE ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AND SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS BL SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ALL NIGHT
AND LIKELY POPS REMAIN WARRANTED. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

TEMPS...MAVMOS GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS INITIALLY ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS DOWN A BIT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WITH CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LIKELY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER MAV FOR
HIGHS. USED CONSMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS
SIMILAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT.  NONETHELESS...KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  BY THURSDAY...A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN...AND A WARM FRONT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVEN FURTHER BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WARM UP AFTER THE COLD
FRONT EARLIER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD....TO MID TO UPPER 60S BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/2100Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 450 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOK MORE UNCERTAIN AT
KIND AND KHUF AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING CONVECTION
WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH WITH ANOTHER LINE TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONT
BUT KIND AND KHUF REMAINING IN BETWEEN. OTHER GUIDANCE IS STILL
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OVER THOSE AREAS AFTER 0Z...SO THOUGHT BEST
ACTION AT THIS TIME WAS TO TAKE OUT PREVAILING THUNDER AT THOSE
SITES AND USE VCTS INSTEAD. LEFT PREVAILING THUNDER GOING LATER THIS
EVENING AT KBMG AND KLAF WITH INCREASING FORCING OVER THESE AREAS
BUT WILL REEVALUATE THOSE LOCATIONS FOR NEXT ISSUANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES CLOSER TO CENTRAL INDIANA. SO...WILL INCLUDE -TSRA AT ALL
TAF SITES FROM SUN 01-06/07Z. AFTER THAT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO WANE...BUT WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL STILL WARRANT
MENTION OF VCTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. MVFR OR WORSE
CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOW CEILINGS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD...GENERALLY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 302052
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
450 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO IMPACT SOUTHERN INDIANA AS PLUME OF DEEP GULF
MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SOUTHEAST UPPER RIDGE.
TEMPS HAD BEEN HELD DOWN BY CLOUDS SO FAR...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S AS OF 19Z.

SOUTHEAST RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUCKLE A BIT IN RESPONSE TO THE WAVE
ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS HELPING TO SHIFT
THE MOISTURE PLUME CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER...AND HAVE SEEN A
DOWNWARD TREND IN RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS CONVECTION
REFOCUSING OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO A WEAK WAVE ALOFT. SCATTERED CONVECTION ALSO DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF A SUBTLE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WITHIN AN
ATMOSPHERE WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
INCREASING AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY EVENING... EXPECT BOTH OF THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST RESPECTIVELY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT
THROUGH THE EVENING.

WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING REMAIN THE PRIMARY IMPACTS INTO
THE EVENING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE STORMS OVER ILLINOIS AS THEY
MOVE E/NE INTO THE REGION. CERTAINLY COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME
OF THE STRONGER STORMS BUT OVERALL...POORER LAPSE RATES AND LESS
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP STORMS IN A MULTICELLULAR SUBSEVERE MODE.

CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY SINK INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
SHIFTS EAST AND ENABLES DRIER AIR TO BEGIN ADVECTING IN. ANOTHER
WAVE ALOFT ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL KEEP PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL MAINTAIN 50-60 POPS
SOUTH OF I-70.

TEMPS...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND PRECIP...
LEANED TOWARDS WARMER METMOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES...PARTICULARLY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY INTO QUEBEC WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE ONGOING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AT BEST AND FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA
WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. MONDAY MORNING WILL START OUT DRY AS WELL BEFORE
FOCUS SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP WAVE ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AND SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS BL SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ALL NIGHT
AND LIKELY POPS REMAIN WARRANTED. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

TEMPS...MAVMOS GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS INITIALLY ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS DOWN A BIT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WITH CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LIKELY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER MAV FOR
HIGHS. USED CONSMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS
SIMILAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT.  NONETHELESS...KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  BY THURSDAY...A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN...AND A WARM FRONT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVEN FURTHER BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WARM UP AFTER THE COLD
FRONT EARLIER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD....TO MID TO UPPER 60S BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/2100Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 450 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOK MORE UNCERTAIN AT
KIND AND KHUF AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING CONVECTION
WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH WITH ANOTHER LINE TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONT
BUT KIND AND KHUF REMAINING IN BETWEEN. OTHER GUIDANCE IS STILL
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OVER THOSE AREAS AFTER 0Z...SO THOUGHT BEST
ACTION AT THIS TIME WAS TO TAKE OUT PREVAILING THUNDER AT THOSE
SITES AND USE VCTS INSTEAD. LEFT PREVAILING THUNDER GOING LATER THIS
EVENING AT KBMG AND KLAF WITH INCREASING FORCING OVER THESE AREAS
BUT WILL REEVALUATE THOSE LOCATIONS FOR NEXT ISSUANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES CLOSER TO CENTRAL INDIANA. SO...WILL INCLUDE -TSRA AT ALL
TAF SITES FROM SUN 01-06/07Z. AFTER THAT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO WANE...BUT WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL STILL WARRANT
MENTION OF VCTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. MVFR OR WORSE
CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOW CEILINGS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD...GENERALLY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 301927
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO IMPACT SOUTHERN INDIANA AS PLUME OF DEEP GULF
MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SOUTHEAST UPPER RIDGE.
TEMPS HAD BEEN HELD DOWN BY CLOUDS SO FAR...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S AS OF 19Z.

SOUTHEAST RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUCKLE A BIT IN RESPONSE TO THE WAVE
ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS HELPING TO SHIFT
THE MOISTURE PLUME CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER...AND HAVE SEEN A
DOWNWARD TREND IN RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS CONVECTION
REFOCUSING OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO A WEAK WAVE ALOFT. SCATTERED CONVECTION ALSO DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF A SUBTLE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WITHIN AN
ATMOSPHERE WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
INCREASING AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY EVENING... EXPECT BOTH OF THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST RESPECTIVELY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT
THROUGH THE EVENING.

WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING REMAIN THE PRIMARY IMPACTS INTO
THE EVENING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE STORMS OVER ILLINOIS AS THEY
MOVE E/NE INTO THE REGION. CERTAINLY COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME
OF THE STRONGER STORMS BUT OVERALL...POORER LAPSE RATES AND LESS
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP STORMS IN A MULTICELLULAR SUBSEVERE MODE.

CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY SINK INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
SHIFTS EAST AND ENABLES DRIER AIR TO BEGIN ADVECTING IN. ANOTHER
WAVE ALOFT ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL KEEP PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL MAINTAIN 50-60 POPS
SOUTH OF I-70.

TEMPS...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND PRECIP...
LEANED TOWARDS WARMER METMOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES...PARTICULARLY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY INTO QUEBEC WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE ONGOING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AT BEST AND FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA
WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. MONDAY MORNING WILL START OUT DRY AS WELL BEFORE
FOCUS SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP WAVE ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AND SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS BL SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ALL NIGHT
AND LIKELY POPS REMAIN WARRANTED. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

TEMPS...MAVMOS GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS INITIALLY ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS DOWN A BIT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WITH CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LIKELY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER MAV FOR
HIGHS. USED CONSMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS
SIMILAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT.  NONETHELESS...KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  BY THURSDAY...A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN...AND A WARM FRONT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVEN FURTHER BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WARM UP AFTER THE COLD
FRONT EARLIER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD....TO MID TO UPPER 60S BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MORE PREVALENT AT KBMG SO
FAR TODAY WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. ELSEWHERE...REMOVED MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY
MENTION OF RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE VFR CATEGORY WITH SOME
DETERIORATION TO MVFR AT TIMES DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS/REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WITH ANY PRECIP.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES CLOSER TO CENTRAL INDIANA. SO...WILL INCLUDE -TSRA AT ALL
TAF SITES FROM SUN 01-06/07Z. AFTER THAT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO WANE...BUT WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL STILL WARRANT
MENTION OF VCTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. MVFR OR WORSE
CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOW CEILINGS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD...GENERALLY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 301927
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO IMPACT SOUTHERN INDIANA AS PLUME OF DEEP GULF
MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SOUTHEAST UPPER RIDGE.
TEMPS HAD BEEN HELD DOWN BY CLOUDS SO FAR...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S AS OF 19Z.

SOUTHEAST RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUCKLE A BIT IN RESPONSE TO THE WAVE
ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS HELPING TO SHIFT
THE MOISTURE PLUME CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER...AND HAVE SEEN A
DOWNWARD TREND IN RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS CONVECTION
REFOCUSING OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO A WEAK WAVE ALOFT. SCATTERED CONVECTION ALSO DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF A SUBTLE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WITHIN AN
ATMOSPHERE WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
INCREASING AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY EVENING... EXPECT BOTH OF THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST RESPECTIVELY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT
THROUGH THE EVENING.

WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING REMAIN THE PRIMARY IMPACTS INTO
THE EVENING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE STORMS OVER ILLINOIS AS THEY
MOVE E/NE INTO THE REGION. CERTAINLY COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME
OF THE STRONGER STORMS BUT OVERALL...POORER LAPSE RATES AND LESS
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP STORMS IN A MULTICELLULAR SUBSEVERE MODE.

CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY SINK INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
SHIFTS EAST AND ENABLES DRIER AIR TO BEGIN ADVECTING IN. ANOTHER
WAVE ALOFT ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL KEEP PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL MAINTAIN 50-60 POPS
SOUTH OF I-70.

TEMPS...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND PRECIP...
LEANED TOWARDS WARMER METMOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES...PARTICULARLY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY INTO QUEBEC WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE ONGOING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AT BEST AND FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA
WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. MONDAY MORNING WILL START OUT DRY AS WELL BEFORE
FOCUS SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP WAVE ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AND SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS BL SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ALL NIGHT
AND LIKELY POPS REMAIN WARRANTED. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

TEMPS...MAVMOS GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS INITIALLY ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS DOWN A BIT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WITH CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LIKELY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER MAV FOR
HIGHS. USED CONSMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS
SIMILAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT.  NONETHELESS...KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  BY THURSDAY...A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN...AND A WARM FRONT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVEN FURTHER BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WARM UP AFTER THE COLD
FRONT EARLIER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD....TO MID TO UPPER 60S BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MORE PREVALENT AT KBMG SO
FAR TODAY WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. ELSEWHERE...REMOVED MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY
MENTION OF RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE VFR CATEGORY WITH SOME
DETERIORATION TO MVFR AT TIMES DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS/REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WITH ANY PRECIP.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES CLOSER TO CENTRAL INDIANA. SO...WILL INCLUDE -TSRA AT ALL
TAF SITES FROM SUN 01-06/07Z. AFTER THAT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO WANE...BUT WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL STILL WARRANT
MENTION OF VCTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. MVFR OR WORSE
CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOW CEILINGS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD...GENERALLY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 301749
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
149 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WET MORNING IN PROGRESS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH. TEMPS
WERE BEING HELD IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S AS OF 14Z WITH THE RAIN
AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.

OVERALL FORECAST IN VERY GOOD SHAPE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED
BASED ON CURRENT ANALYSIS AND SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE. PLUME
OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING OUT OF THE GULF NORTH THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE REGION HELPING TO GENERATE
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 2 INCHES OR
GREATER WITHIN THIS PLUME...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT
COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER WAVE OVER WISCONSIN MOVE EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING. FORCING ALOFT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET MOVING
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE AFTERNOON.

AS MENTIONED...MAIN AREA FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER TO FOCUS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN IN VICINITY OF THE
HIGHEST PRECIP WATER VALUES OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AFTER THAT AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED AND FORCING ALOFT INCREASES...
ANTICIPATE AN UPTICK IN STORMS ELSEWHERE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS WILL
IMPACT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS OVER WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST ARE
AND HIGH CHANCES FURTHER EAST. EVEN WITH THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
INCREASING...NOT ANTICIPATING A WASHOUT AS THERE WILL BE PERIODS
WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WILL BE POCKETS OF FILTERED SUNSHINE HERE
AND THERE WHICH SHOULD STILL ENABLE MAX TEMPS INTO THE 80-84 RANGE
BY LATE DAY. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOCUS REMAINS ON CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH THE BIG PICTURE BUT DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. SEE NO CLEAR
FAVORITE IN THE DETAILS SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET
TONIGHT. WITH DECENT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL GO LIKELY POPS.
LOWERED POPS MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING LESSENS SOME. COULD
BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. WENT LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING SOUTHEAST AND
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE WENT CHANCE CATEGORY OR
LOWER.

LITTLE FORCING WILL BE AROUND THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SINCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...LEFT THEM ALONE TO
AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING AS ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE PLENTIFUL. 30-40KT WINDS AT 850MB AND AN UPPER JET WILL AID IN
FORCING. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS SOUTH.

FOR TEMPERATURES...MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON SUNDAY WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS AND RAIN...BUT MET LOOKS TOO COOL. WENT IN BETWEEN. ON MONDAY
MAV STILL LOOKS A BIT WARM MOST AREAS BUT MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF THE
MARK IF RAIN ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY. CUT MAV AS NEEDED. FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOCUS FOR THE
LONG TERM. ENSEMBLE BLEND CONTINUES TO LOOK BETTER THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WHICH ARE TENDING TO CHANGE A BIT RUN TO RUN
REGARDING THE SPECIFICS OF THE UPCOMING SYNOPTIC PATTERN. TRENDS
CONTINUE THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ON TUESDAY IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND LINGERING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS ONLY SMALL POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA ON FRIDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND.
FINALLY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MORE PREVALENT AT KBMG SO
FAR TODAY WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. ELSEWHERE...REMOVED MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY
MENTION OF RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE VFR CATEGORY WITH SOME
DETERIORATION TO MVFR AT TIMES DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS/REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WITH ANY PRECIP.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES CLOSER TO CENTRAL INDIANA. SO...WILL INCLUDE -TSRA AT ALL
TAF SITES FROM SUN 01-06/07Z. AFTER THAT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO WANE...BUT WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL STILL WARRANT
MENTION OF VCTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. MVFR OR WORSE
CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOW CEILINGS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD...GENERALLY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 301749
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
149 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WET MORNING IN PROGRESS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH. TEMPS
WERE BEING HELD IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S AS OF 14Z WITH THE RAIN
AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.

OVERALL FORECAST IN VERY GOOD SHAPE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED
BASED ON CURRENT ANALYSIS AND SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE. PLUME
OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING OUT OF THE GULF NORTH THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE REGION HELPING TO GENERATE
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 2 INCHES OR
GREATER WITHIN THIS PLUME...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT
COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER WAVE OVER WISCONSIN MOVE EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING. FORCING ALOFT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET MOVING
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE AFTERNOON.

AS MENTIONED...MAIN AREA FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER TO FOCUS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN IN VICINITY OF THE
HIGHEST PRECIP WATER VALUES OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AFTER THAT AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED AND FORCING ALOFT INCREASES...
ANTICIPATE AN UPTICK IN STORMS ELSEWHERE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS WILL
IMPACT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS OVER WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST ARE
AND HIGH CHANCES FURTHER EAST. EVEN WITH THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
INCREASING...NOT ANTICIPATING A WASHOUT AS THERE WILL BE PERIODS
WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WILL BE POCKETS OF FILTERED SUNSHINE HERE
AND THERE WHICH SHOULD STILL ENABLE MAX TEMPS INTO THE 80-84 RANGE
BY LATE DAY. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOCUS REMAINS ON CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH THE BIG PICTURE BUT DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. SEE NO CLEAR
FAVORITE IN THE DETAILS SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET
TONIGHT. WITH DECENT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL GO LIKELY POPS.
LOWERED POPS MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING LESSENS SOME. COULD
BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. WENT LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING SOUTHEAST AND
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE WENT CHANCE CATEGORY OR
LOWER.

LITTLE FORCING WILL BE AROUND THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SINCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...LEFT THEM ALONE TO
AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING AS ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE PLENTIFUL. 30-40KT WINDS AT 850MB AND AN UPPER JET WILL AID IN
FORCING. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS SOUTH.

FOR TEMPERATURES...MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON SUNDAY WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS AND RAIN...BUT MET LOOKS TOO COOL. WENT IN BETWEEN. ON MONDAY
MAV STILL LOOKS A BIT WARM MOST AREAS BUT MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF THE
MARK IF RAIN ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY. CUT MAV AS NEEDED. FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOCUS FOR THE
LONG TERM. ENSEMBLE BLEND CONTINUES TO LOOK BETTER THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WHICH ARE TENDING TO CHANGE A BIT RUN TO RUN
REGARDING THE SPECIFICS OF THE UPCOMING SYNOPTIC PATTERN. TRENDS
CONTINUE THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ON TUESDAY IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND LINGERING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS ONLY SMALL POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA ON FRIDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND.
FINALLY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MORE PREVALENT AT KBMG SO
FAR TODAY WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. ELSEWHERE...REMOVED MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY
MENTION OF RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE VFR CATEGORY WITH SOME
DETERIORATION TO MVFR AT TIMES DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS/REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WITH ANY PRECIP.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES CLOSER TO CENTRAL INDIANA. SO...WILL INCLUDE -TSRA AT ALL
TAF SITES FROM SUN 01-06/07Z. AFTER THAT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO WANE...BUT WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL STILL WARRANT
MENTION OF VCTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. MVFR OR WORSE
CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOW CEILINGS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD...GENERALLY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 301423
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1023 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WET MORNING IN PROGRESS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH. TEMPS
WERE BEING HELD IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S AS OF 14Z WITH THE RAIN
AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.

OVERALL FORECAST IN VERY GOOD SHAPE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED
BASED ON CURRENT ANALYSIS AND SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE. PLUME
OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING OUT OF THE GULF NORTH THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE REGION HELPING TO GENERATE
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 2 INCHES OR
GREATER WITHIN THIS PLUME...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT
COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER WAVE OVER WISCONSIN MOVE EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING. FORCING ALOFT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET MOVING
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE AFTERNOON.

AS MENTIONED...MAIN AREA FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER TO FOCUS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN IN VICINITY OF THE
HIGHEST PRECIP WATER VALUES OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AFTER THAT AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED AND FORCING ALOFT INCREASES...
ANTICIPATE AN UPTICK IN STORMS ELSEWHERE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS WILL
IMPACT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS OVER WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST ARE
AND HIGH CHANCES FURTHER EAST. EVEN WITH THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
INCREASING...NOT ANTICIPATING A WASHOUT AS THERE WILL BE PERIODS
WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WILL BE POCKETS OF FILTERED SUNSHINE HERE
AND THERE WHICH SHOULD STILL ENABLE MAX TEMPS INTO THE 80-84 RANGE
BY LATE DAY. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOCUS REMAINS ON CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH THE BIG PICTURE BUT DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. SEE NO CLEAR
FAVORITE IN THE DETAILS SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET
TONIGHT. WITH DECENT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL GO LIKELY POPS.
LOWERED POPS MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING LESSENS SOME. COULD
BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. WENT LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING SOUTHEAST AND
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE WENT CHANCE CATEGORY OR
LOWER.

LITTLE FORCING WILL BE AROUND THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SINCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...LEFT THEM ALONE TO
AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING AS ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE PLENTIFUL. 30-40KT WINDS AT 850MB AND AN UPPER JET WILL AID IN
FORCING. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS SOUTH.

FOR TEMPERATURES...MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON SUNDAY WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS AND RAIN...BUT MET LOOKS TOO COOL. WENT IN BETWEEN. ON MONDAY
MAV STILL LOOKS A BIT WARM MOST AREAS BUT MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF THE
MARK IF RAIN ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY. CUT MAV AS NEEDED. FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOCUS FOR THE
LONG TERM. ENSEMBLE BLEND CONTINUES TO LOOK BETTER THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WHICH ARE TENDING TO CHANGE A BIT RUN TO RUN
REGARDING THE SPECIFICS OF THE UPCOMING SYNOPTIC PATTERN. TRENDS
CONTINUE THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ON TUESDAY IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND LINGERING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS ONLY SMALL POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA ON FRIDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND.
FINALLY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/1500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATE...
EXTENDED TEMPO TIME FRAME FOR SHOWERS AT KIND THROUGH SAT 17Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH VCTS AND TEMPO SHOWERS
THROUGH 15Z AND THEN VCTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND FINALLY MVFR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PREVAILING GROUP AS IT GETS CLOSER TO 00Z.
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MORE SCATTERED OVERNIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH
VCTS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 05Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR SO
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER 00Z
WITH SUNSET.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 301423
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1023 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WET MORNING IN PROGRESS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH. TEMPS
WERE BEING HELD IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S AS OF 14Z WITH THE RAIN
AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.

OVERALL FORECAST IN VERY GOOD SHAPE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED
BASED ON CURRENT ANALYSIS AND SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE. PLUME
OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING OUT OF THE GULF NORTH THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE REGION HELPING TO GENERATE
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 2 INCHES OR
GREATER WITHIN THIS PLUME...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT
COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER WAVE OVER WISCONSIN MOVE EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING. FORCING ALOFT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET MOVING
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE AFTERNOON.

AS MENTIONED...MAIN AREA FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER TO FOCUS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN IN VICINITY OF THE
HIGHEST PRECIP WATER VALUES OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AFTER THAT AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED AND FORCING ALOFT INCREASES...
ANTICIPATE AN UPTICK IN STORMS ELSEWHERE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS WILL
IMPACT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS OVER WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST ARE
AND HIGH CHANCES FURTHER EAST. EVEN WITH THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
INCREASING...NOT ANTICIPATING A WASHOUT AS THERE WILL BE PERIODS
WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WILL BE POCKETS OF FILTERED SUNSHINE HERE
AND THERE WHICH SHOULD STILL ENABLE MAX TEMPS INTO THE 80-84 RANGE
BY LATE DAY. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOCUS REMAINS ON CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH THE BIG PICTURE BUT DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. SEE NO CLEAR
FAVORITE IN THE DETAILS SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET
TONIGHT. WITH DECENT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL GO LIKELY POPS.
LOWERED POPS MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING LESSENS SOME. COULD
BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. WENT LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING SOUTHEAST AND
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE WENT CHANCE CATEGORY OR
LOWER.

LITTLE FORCING WILL BE AROUND THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SINCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...LEFT THEM ALONE TO
AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING AS ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE PLENTIFUL. 30-40KT WINDS AT 850MB AND AN UPPER JET WILL AID IN
FORCING. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS SOUTH.

FOR TEMPERATURES...MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON SUNDAY WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS AND RAIN...BUT MET LOOKS TOO COOL. WENT IN BETWEEN. ON MONDAY
MAV STILL LOOKS A BIT WARM MOST AREAS BUT MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF THE
MARK IF RAIN ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY. CUT MAV AS NEEDED. FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOCUS FOR THE
LONG TERM. ENSEMBLE BLEND CONTINUES TO LOOK BETTER THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WHICH ARE TENDING TO CHANGE A BIT RUN TO RUN
REGARDING THE SPECIFICS OF THE UPCOMING SYNOPTIC PATTERN. TRENDS
CONTINUE THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ON TUESDAY IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND LINGERING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS ONLY SMALL POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA ON FRIDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND.
FINALLY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/1500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATE...
EXTENDED TEMPO TIME FRAME FOR SHOWERS AT KIND THROUGH SAT 17Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH VCTS AND TEMPO SHOWERS
THROUGH 15Z AND THEN VCTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND FINALLY MVFR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PREVAILING GROUP AS IT GETS CLOSER TO 00Z.
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MORE SCATTERED OVERNIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH
VCTS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 05Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR SO
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER 00Z
WITH SUNSET.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 301412
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1012 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH 850MB WINDS OF 30-40KT ARE BRINGING IN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
BETTER FORCING THOUGH DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL LATER TODAY WHEN THE
UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER JET MOVE IN.

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS. HI RES RAPID REFRESH
MODEL SHOWS ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THIS
MAKES SENSE WITH BETTER FORCING ARRIVING LATER IN THE DAY.

THUS GRADUALLY RAISED POPS THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO
EAST...REACHING LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE WEST BY 00Z AND HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY ELSEWHERE BY THEN.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS EAST WHERE
BULK OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATER TODAY AND TOWARD THE COOLER MET
NUMBERS WEST WHERE RAIN WILL ARRIVE EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOCUS REMAINS ON CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH THE BIG PICTURE BUT DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. SEE NO CLEAR
FAVORITE IN THE DETAILS SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET
TONIGHT. WITH DECENT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL GO LIKELY POPS.
LOWERED POPS MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING LESSENS SOME. COULD
BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. WENT LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING SOUTHEAST AND
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE WENT CHANCE CATEGORY OR
LOWER.

LITTLE FORCING WILL BE AROUND THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SINCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...LEFT THEM ALONE TO
AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING AS ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE PLENTIFUL. 30-40KT WINDS AT 850MB AND AN UPPER JET WILL AID IN
FORCING. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS SOUTH.

FOR TEMPERATURES...MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON SUNDAY WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS AND RAIN...BUT MET LOOKS TOO COOL. WENT IN BETWEEN. ON MONDAY
MAV STILL LOOKS A BIT WARM MOST AREAS BUT MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF THE
MARK IF RAIN ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY. CUT MAV AS NEEDED. FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOCUS FOR THE
LONG TERM. ENSEMBLE BLEND CONTINUES TO LOOK BETTER THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WHICH ARE TENDING TO CHANGE A BIT RUN TO RUN
REGARDING THE SPECIFICS OF THE UPCOMING SYNOPTIC PATTERN. TRENDS
CONTINUE THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ON TUESDAY IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND LINGERING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS ONLY SMALL POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA ON FRIDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND.
FINALLY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATE...
EXTENDED TEMPO TIME FRAME FOR SHOWERS AT KIND THROUGH SAT 17Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE FORECAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH VCTS AND TEMPO SHOWERS THROUGH
15Z AND THEN VCTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND FINALLY MVFR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PREVAILING GROUP AS IT GETS CLOSER TO 00Z. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD MORE SCATTERED OVERNIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH VCTS
AND MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 05Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR SO
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER 00Z
WITH SUNSET.


&&


.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 301412
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1012 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH 850MB WINDS OF 30-40KT ARE BRINGING IN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
BETTER FORCING THOUGH DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL LATER TODAY WHEN THE
UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER JET MOVE IN.

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS. HI RES RAPID REFRESH
MODEL SHOWS ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THIS
MAKES SENSE WITH BETTER FORCING ARRIVING LATER IN THE DAY.

THUS GRADUALLY RAISED POPS THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO
EAST...REACHING LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE WEST BY 00Z AND HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY ELSEWHERE BY THEN.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS EAST WHERE
BULK OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATER TODAY AND TOWARD THE COOLER MET
NUMBERS WEST WHERE RAIN WILL ARRIVE EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOCUS REMAINS ON CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH THE BIG PICTURE BUT DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. SEE NO CLEAR
FAVORITE IN THE DETAILS SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET
TONIGHT. WITH DECENT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL GO LIKELY POPS.
LOWERED POPS MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING LESSENS SOME. COULD
BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. WENT LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING SOUTHEAST AND
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE WENT CHANCE CATEGORY OR
LOWER.

LITTLE FORCING WILL BE AROUND THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SINCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...LEFT THEM ALONE TO
AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING AS ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE PLENTIFUL. 30-40KT WINDS AT 850MB AND AN UPPER JET WILL AID IN
FORCING. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS SOUTH.

FOR TEMPERATURES...MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON SUNDAY WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS AND RAIN...BUT MET LOOKS TOO COOL. WENT IN BETWEEN. ON MONDAY
MAV STILL LOOKS A BIT WARM MOST AREAS BUT MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF THE
MARK IF RAIN ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY. CUT MAV AS NEEDED. FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOCUS FOR THE
LONG TERM. ENSEMBLE BLEND CONTINUES TO LOOK BETTER THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WHICH ARE TENDING TO CHANGE A BIT RUN TO RUN
REGARDING THE SPECIFICS OF THE UPCOMING SYNOPTIC PATTERN. TRENDS
CONTINUE THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ON TUESDAY IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND LINGERING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS ONLY SMALL POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA ON FRIDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND.
FINALLY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATE...
EXTENDED TEMPO TIME FRAME FOR SHOWERS AT KIND THROUGH SAT 17Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE FORECAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH VCTS AND TEMPO SHOWERS THROUGH
15Z AND THEN VCTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND FINALLY MVFR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PREVAILING GROUP AS IT GETS CLOSER TO 00Z. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD MORE SCATTERED OVERNIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH VCTS
AND MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 05Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR SO
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER 00Z
WITH SUNSET.


&&


.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 301032
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH 850MB WINDS OF 30-40KT ARE BRINGING IN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
BETTER FORCING THOUGH DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL LATER TODAY WHEN THE
UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER JET MOVE IN.

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS. HI RES RAPID REFRESH
MODEL SHOWS ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THIS
MAKES SENSE WITH BETTER FORCING ARRIVING LATER IN THE DAY.

THUS GRADUALLY RAISED POPS THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO
EAST...REACHING LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE WEST BY 00Z AND HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY ELSEWHERE BY THEN.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS EAST WHERE
BULK OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATER TODAY AND TOWARD THE COOLER MET
NUMBERS WEST WHERE RAIN WILL ARRIVE EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOCUS REMAINS ON CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH THE BIG PICTURE BUT DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. SEE NO CLEAR
FAVORITE IN THE DETAILS SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET
TONIGHT. WITH DECENT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL GO LIKELY POPS.
LOWERED POPS MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING LESSENS SOME. COULD
BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. WENT LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING SOUTHEAST AND
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE WENT CHANCE CATEGORY OR
LOWER.

LITTLE FORCING WILL BE AROUND THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SINCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...LEFT THEM ALONE TO
AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING AS ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE PLENTIFUL. 30-40KT WINDS AT 850MB AND AN UPPER JET WILL AID IN
FORCING. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS SOUTH.

FOR TEMPERATURES...MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON SUNDAY WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS AND RAIN...BUT MET LOOKS TOO COOL. WENT IN BETWEEN. ON MONDAY
MAV STILL LOOKS A BIT WARM MOST AREAS BUT MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF THE
MARK IF RAIN ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY. CUT MAV AS NEEDED. FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOCUS FOR THE
LONG TERM. ENSEMBLE BLEND CONTINUES TO LOOK BETTER THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WHICH ARE TENDING TO CHANGE A BIT RUN TO RUN
REGARDING THE SPECIFICS OF THE UPCOMING SYNOPTIC PATTERN. TRENDS
CONTINUE THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ON TUESDAY IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND LINGERING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS ONLY SMALL POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA ON FRIDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND.
FINALLY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE FORECAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH VCTS AND TEMPO SHOWERS THROUGH
15Z AND THEN VCTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND FINALLY MVFR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PREVAILING GROUP AS IT GETS CLOSER TO 00Z. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD MORE SCATTERED OVERNIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH VCTS
AND MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 05Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR SO
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER 00Z
WITH SUNSET.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 301032
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH 850MB WINDS OF 30-40KT ARE BRINGING IN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
BETTER FORCING THOUGH DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL LATER TODAY WHEN THE
UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER JET MOVE IN.

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS. HI RES RAPID REFRESH
MODEL SHOWS ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THIS
MAKES SENSE WITH BETTER FORCING ARRIVING LATER IN THE DAY.

THUS GRADUALLY RAISED POPS THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO
EAST...REACHING LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE WEST BY 00Z AND HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY ELSEWHERE BY THEN.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS EAST WHERE
BULK OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATER TODAY AND TOWARD THE COOLER MET
NUMBERS WEST WHERE RAIN WILL ARRIVE EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOCUS REMAINS ON CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH THE BIG PICTURE BUT DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. SEE NO CLEAR
FAVORITE IN THE DETAILS SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET
TONIGHT. WITH DECENT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL GO LIKELY POPS.
LOWERED POPS MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING LESSENS SOME. COULD
BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. WENT LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING SOUTHEAST AND
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE WENT CHANCE CATEGORY OR
LOWER.

LITTLE FORCING WILL BE AROUND THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SINCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...LEFT THEM ALONE TO
AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING AS ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE PLENTIFUL. 30-40KT WINDS AT 850MB AND AN UPPER JET WILL AID IN
FORCING. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS SOUTH.

FOR TEMPERATURES...MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON SUNDAY WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS AND RAIN...BUT MET LOOKS TOO COOL. WENT IN BETWEEN. ON MONDAY
MAV STILL LOOKS A BIT WARM MOST AREAS BUT MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF THE
MARK IF RAIN ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY. CUT MAV AS NEEDED. FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOCUS FOR THE
LONG TERM. ENSEMBLE BLEND CONTINUES TO LOOK BETTER THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WHICH ARE TENDING TO CHANGE A BIT RUN TO RUN
REGARDING THE SPECIFICS OF THE UPCOMING SYNOPTIC PATTERN. TRENDS
CONTINUE THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ON TUESDAY IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND LINGERING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS ONLY SMALL POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA ON FRIDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND.
FINALLY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE FORECAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH VCTS AND TEMPO SHOWERS THROUGH
15Z AND THEN VCTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND FINALLY MVFR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PREVAILING GROUP AS IT GETS CLOSER TO 00Z. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD MORE SCATTERED OVERNIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH VCTS
AND MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 05Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR SO
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER 00Z
WITH SUNSET.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 300830
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH 850MB WINDS OF 30-40KT ARE BRINGING IN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
BETTER FORCING THOUGH DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL LATER TODAY WHEN THE
UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER JET MOVE IN.

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS. HI RES RAPID REFRESH
MODEL SHOWS ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THIS
MAKES SENSE WITH BETTER FORCING ARRIVING LATER IN THE DAY.

THUS GRADUALLY RAISED POPS THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO
EAST...REACHING LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE WEST BY 00Z AND HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY ELSEWHERE BY THEN.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS EAST WHERE
BULK OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATER TODAY AND TOWARD THE COOLER MET
NUMBERS WEST WHERE RAIN WILL ARRIVE EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOCUS REMAINS ON CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH THE BIG PICTURE BUT DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. SEE NO CLEAR
FAVORITE IN THE DETAILS SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET
TONIGHT. WITH DECENT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL GO LIKELY POPS.
LOWERED POPS MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING LESSENS SOME. COULD
BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. WENT LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING SOUTHEAST AND
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE WENT CHANCE CATEGORY OR
LOWER.

LITTLE FORCING WILL BE AROUND THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SINCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...LEFT THEM ALONE TO
AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING AS ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE PLENTIFUL. 30-40KT WINDS AT 850MB AND AN UPPER JET WILL AID IN
FORCING. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS SOUTH.

FOR TEMPERATURES...MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON SUNDAY WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS AND RAIN...BUT MET LOOKS TOO COOL. WENT IN BETWEEN. ON MONDAY
MAV STILL LOOKS A BIT WARM MOST AREAS BUT MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF THE
MARK IF RAIN ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY. CUT MAV AS NEEDED. FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOCUS FOR THE
LONG TERM. ENSEMBLE BLEND CONTINUES TO LOOK BETTER THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WHICH ARE TENDING TO CHANGE A BIT RUN TO RUN
REGARDING THE SPECIFICS OF THE UPCOMING SYNOPTIC PATTERN. TRENDS
CONTINUE THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ON TUESDAY IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND LINGERING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS ONLY SMALL POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA ON FRIDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND.
FINALLY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/0900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR OR MVFR SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST AFTER 10Z PER
RADAR TRENDS...SO ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FROM 11Z-15Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MOSTLY VFR UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP US UNDER A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH LESS THAN 8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH UP TO 15
KNOTS SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST 8 KNOTS OR LESS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JH/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 300830
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH 850MB WINDS OF 30-40KT ARE BRINGING IN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
BETTER FORCING THOUGH DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL LATER TODAY WHEN THE
UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER JET MOVE IN.

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS. HI RES RAPID REFRESH
MODEL SHOWS ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THIS
MAKES SENSE WITH BETTER FORCING ARRIVING LATER IN THE DAY.

THUS GRADUALLY RAISED POPS THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO
EAST...REACHING LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE WEST BY 00Z AND HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY ELSEWHERE BY THEN.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS EAST WHERE
BULK OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATER TODAY AND TOWARD THE COOLER MET
NUMBERS WEST WHERE RAIN WILL ARRIVE EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOCUS REMAINS ON CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH THE BIG PICTURE BUT DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. SEE NO CLEAR
FAVORITE IN THE DETAILS SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET
TONIGHT. WITH DECENT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL GO LIKELY POPS.
LOWERED POPS MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING LESSENS SOME. COULD
BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. WENT LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING SOUTHEAST AND
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE WENT CHANCE CATEGORY OR
LOWER.

LITTLE FORCING WILL BE AROUND THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SINCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...LEFT THEM ALONE TO
AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING AS ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE PLENTIFUL. 30-40KT WINDS AT 850MB AND AN UPPER JET WILL AID IN
FORCING. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS SOUTH.

FOR TEMPERATURES...MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON SUNDAY WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS AND RAIN...BUT MET LOOKS TOO COOL. WENT IN BETWEEN. ON MONDAY
MAV STILL LOOKS A BIT WARM MOST AREAS BUT MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF THE
MARK IF RAIN ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY. CUT MAV AS NEEDED. FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOCUS FOR THE
LONG TERM. ENSEMBLE BLEND CONTINUES TO LOOK BETTER THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WHICH ARE TENDING TO CHANGE A BIT RUN TO RUN
REGARDING THE SPECIFICS OF THE UPCOMING SYNOPTIC PATTERN. TRENDS
CONTINUE THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ON TUESDAY IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND LINGERING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS ONLY SMALL POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA ON FRIDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND.
FINALLY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/0900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR OR MVFR SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST AFTER 10Z PER
RADAR TRENDS...SO ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FROM 11Z-15Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MOSTLY VFR UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP US UNDER A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH LESS THAN 8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH UP TO 15
KNOTS SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST 8 KNOTS OR LESS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JH/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 300708
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH 850MB WINDS OF 30-40KT ARE BRINGING IN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
BETTER FORCING THOUGH DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL LATER TODAY WHEN THE
UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER JET MOVE IN.

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS. HI RES RAPID REFRESH
MODEL SHOWS ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THIS
MAKES SENSE WITH BETTER FORCING ARRIVING LATER IN THE DAY.

THUS GRADUALLY RAISED POPS THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO
EAST...REACHING LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE WEST BY 00Z AND HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY ELSEWHERE BY THEN.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS EAST WHERE
BULK OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATER TODAY AND TOWARD THE COOLER MET
NUMBERS WEST WHERE RAIN WILL ARRIVE EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOCUS REMAINS ON CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH THE BIG PICTURE BUT DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. SEE NO CLEAR
FAVORITE IN THE DETAILS SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET
TONIGHT. WITH DECENT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL GO LIKELY POPS.
LOWERED POPS MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING LESSENS SOME. COULD
BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. WENT LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING SOUTHEAST AND
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE WENT CHANCE CATEGORY OR
LOWER.

LITTLE FORCING WILL BE AROUND THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SINCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...LEFT THEM ALONE TO
AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING AS ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE PLENTIFUL. 30-40KT WINDS AT 850MB AND AN UPPER JET WILL AID IN
FORCING. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS SOUTH.

FOR TEMPERATURES...MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON SUNDAY WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS AND RAIN...BUT MET LOOKS TOO COOL. WENT IN BETWEEN. ON MONDAY
MAV STILL LOOKS A BIT WARM MOST AREAS BUT MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF THE
MARK IF RAIN ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY. CUT MAV AS NEEDED. FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOCUS FOR THE
LONG TERM. ENSEMBLE BLEND CONTINUES TO LOOK BETTER THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WHICH ARE TENDING TO CHANGE A BIT RUN TO RUN
REGARDING THE SPECIFICS OF THE UPCOMING SYNOPTIC PATTERN. TRENDS
CONTINUE THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ON TUESDAY IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND LINGERING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS ONLY SMALL POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA ON FRIDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND.
FINALLY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MOSTLY VFR UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP US UNDER A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH LESS THAN 8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH UP TO 15
KNOTS SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST 8 KNOTS OR LESS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 300649
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
248 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRESENCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH A WARM HUMID
AIRMASS AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
MIN TEMPS. IN GENERAL...FORECAST IN OK SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AFTER ABOUT A 36 HOUR BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS...THE HUMIDITY
IS RETURNING IN EARNEST AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AS OF 19Z...APPEARS THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS EARLIER TODAY...TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED INTO
THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
AXIS ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED IN PEAK
HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF THE INDY METRO. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT OR BL
SHEAR AVAILABLE...STORMS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND
MULTICELLULAR WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING BEING THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS...LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER METMOS GUIDANCE WITH THE RETURN
OF THE MOIST HUMID AIRMASS. SHOULD SEE LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT WEEKEND WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...BRINGING PERIODIC THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE
WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY LAID OUT
ACROSS THE REGION...A RICH FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO FUELING A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS WARRANTS A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE THREAT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

AN UPPER WAVE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA AS IT DRIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE ACCOMPANYING. WHILE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE AROUND AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO MAXIMIZE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FUELING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. BESIDES MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...REGION WILL RESIDE IN
THE RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER JETLET PASSING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INTO THE NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL AGAIN BE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
STORMS REMAINING LARGELY SUBSEVERE.

WITH THE LOW MOVING EAST INTO QUEBEC...THE BETTER THREATS FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY AS THE DEEPER PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SLIPS SOUTH
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER NORTH...SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO
LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS THE WEAK
HIGH OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

SECOND SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION MAKES ITS ARRIVAL MONDAY AS A
SHARP UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A 30KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BRING A RENEWED SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS AND
POSSIBLY A BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS FORCING ALOFT...SHEAR
AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE. WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING IN HIGHER POPS FOR MONDAY.

TEMPS...HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP. PREFER THE WARMER MAV FOR SATURDAY WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND THE COOLER MET ON
SUNDAY. CONSALL WORKED WELL FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOCUS FOR THE
LONG TERM. ENSEMBLE BLEND CONTINUES TO LOOK BETTER THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WHICH ARE TENDING TO CHANGE A BIT RUN TO RUN
REGARDING THE SPECIFICS OF THE UPCOMING SYNOPTIC PATTERN. TRENDS
CONTINUE THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ON TUESDAY IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND LINGERING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS ONLY SMALL POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA ON FRIDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND.
FINALLY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MOSTLY VFR UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP US UNDER A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH LESS THAN 8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH UP TO 15
KNOTS SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST 8 KNOTS OR LESS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

















000
FXUS63 KIND 300649
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
248 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRESENCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH A WARM HUMID
AIRMASS AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
MIN TEMPS. IN GENERAL...FORECAST IN OK SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AFTER ABOUT A 36 HOUR BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS...THE HUMIDITY
IS RETURNING IN EARNEST AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AS OF 19Z...APPEARS THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS EARLIER TODAY...TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED INTO
THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
AXIS ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED IN PEAK
HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF THE INDY METRO. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT OR BL
SHEAR AVAILABLE...STORMS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND
MULTICELLULAR WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING BEING THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS...LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER METMOS GUIDANCE WITH THE RETURN
OF THE MOIST HUMID AIRMASS. SHOULD SEE LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT WEEKEND WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...BRINGING PERIODIC THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE
WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY LAID OUT
ACROSS THE REGION...A RICH FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO FUELING A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS WARRANTS A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE THREAT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

AN UPPER WAVE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA AS IT DRIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE ACCOMPANYING. WHILE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE AROUND AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO MAXIMIZE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FUELING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. BESIDES MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...REGION WILL RESIDE IN
THE RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER JETLET PASSING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INTO THE NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL AGAIN BE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
STORMS REMAINING LARGELY SUBSEVERE.

WITH THE LOW MOVING EAST INTO QUEBEC...THE BETTER THREATS FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY AS THE DEEPER PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SLIPS SOUTH
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER NORTH...SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO
LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS THE WEAK
HIGH OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

SECOND SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION MAKES ITS ARRIVAL MONDAY AS A
SHARP UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A 30KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BRING A RENEWED SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS AND
POSSIBLY A BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS FORCING ALOFT...SHEAR
AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE. WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING IN HIGHER POPS FOR MONDAY.

TEMPS...HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP. PREFER THE WARMER MAV FOR SATURDAY WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND THE COOLER MET ON
SUNDAY. CONSALL WORKED WELL FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOCUS FOR THE
LONG TERM. ENSEMBLE BLEND CONTINUES TO LOOK BETTER THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WHICH ARE TENDING TO CHANGE A BIT RUN TO RUN
REGARDING THE SPECIFICS OF THE UPCOMING SYNOPTIC PATTERN. TRENDS
CONTINUE THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ON TUESDAY IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND LINGERING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS ONLY SMALL POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA ON FRIDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND.
FINALLY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MOSTLY VFR UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP US UNDER A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH LESS THAN 8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH UP TO 15
KNOTS SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST 8 KNOTS OR LESS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS


















000
FXUS63 KIND 300400
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1200 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRESENCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH A WARM HUMID
AIRMASS AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
MIN TEMPS. IN GENERAL...FORECAST IN OK SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AFTER ABOUT A 36 HOUR BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS...THE HUMIDITY
IS RETURNING IN EARNEST AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AS OF 19Z...APPEARS THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS EARLIER TODAY...TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED INTO
THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
AXIS ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED IN PEAK
HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF THE INDY METRO. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT OR BL
SHEAR AVAILABLE...STORMS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND
MULTICELLULAR WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING BEING THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS...LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER METMOS GUIDANCE WITH THE RETURN
OF THE MOIST HUMID AIRMASS. SHOULD SEE LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT WEEKEND WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...BRINGING PERIODIC THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE
WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY LAID OUT
ACROSS THE REGION...A RICH FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO FUELING A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS WARRANTS A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE THREAT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

AN UPPER WAVE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA AS IT DRIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE ACCOMPANYING. WHILE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE AROUND AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO MAXIMIZE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FUELING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. BESIDES MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...REGION WILL RESIDE IN
THE RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER JETLET PASSING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INTO THE NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL AGAIN BE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
STORMS REMAINING LARGELY SUBSEVERE.

WITH THE LOW MOVING EAST INTO QUEBEC...THE BETTER THREATS FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY AS THE DEEPER PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SLIPS SOUTH
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER NORTH...SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO
LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS THE WEAK
HIGH OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

SECOND SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION MAKES ITS ARRIVAL MONDAY AS A
SHARP UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A 30KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BRING A RENEWED SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS AND
POSSIBLY A BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS FORCING ALOFT...SHEAR
AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE. WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING IN HIGHER POPS FOR MONDAY.

TEMPS...HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP. PREFER THE WARMER MAV FOR SATURDAY WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND THE COOLER MET ON
SUNDAY. CONSALL WORKED WELL FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE WET AS A COLD FRONT
PRODUCES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT.  MEANWHILE...SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MOSTLY VFR UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP US UNDER A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH LESS THAN 8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH UP TO 15
KNOTS SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST 8 KNOTS OR LESS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 300400
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1200 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRESENCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH A WARM HUMID
AIRMASS AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
MIN TEMPS. IN GENERAL...FORECAST IN OK SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AFTER ABOUT A 36 HOUR BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS...THE HUMIDITY
IS RETURNING IN EARNEST AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AS OF 19Z...APPEARS THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS EARLIER TODAY...TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED INTO
THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
AXIS ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED IN PEAK
HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF THE INDY METRO. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT OR BL
SHEAR AVAILABLE...STORMS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND
MULTICELLULAR WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING BEING THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS...LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER METMOS GUIDANCE WITH THE RETURN
OF THE MOIST HUMID AIRMASS. SHOULD SEE LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT WEEKEND WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...BRINGING PERIODIC THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE
WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY LAID OUT
ACROSS THE REGION...A RICH FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO FUELING A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS WARRANTS A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE THREAT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

AN UPPER WAVE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA AS IT DRIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE ACCOMPANYING. WHILE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE AROUND AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO MAXIMIZE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FUELING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. BESIDES MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...REGION WILL RESIDE IN
THE RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER JETLET PASSING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INTO THE NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL AGAIN BE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
STORMS REMAINING LARGELY SUBSEVERE.

WITH THE LOW MOVING EAST INTO QUEBEC...THE BETTER THREATS FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY AS THE DEEPER PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SLIPS SOUTH
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER NORTH...SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO
LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS THE WEAK
HIGH OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

SECOND SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION MAKES ITS ARRIVAL MONDAY AS A
SHARP UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A 30KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BRING A RENEWED SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS AND
POSSIBLY A BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS FORCING ALOFT...SHEAR
AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE. WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING IN HIGHER POPS FOR MONDAY.

TEMPS...HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP. PREFER THE WARMER MAV FOR SATURDAY WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND THE COOLER MET ON
SUNDAY. CONSALL WORKED WELL FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE WET AS A COLD FRONT
PRODUCES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT.  MEANWHILE...SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MOSTLY VFR UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP US UNDER A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH LESS THAN 8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH UP TO 15
KNOTS SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST 8 KNOTS OR LESS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS















000
FXUS63 KIND 300222
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1022 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...

AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRESENCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH A WARM HUMID
AIRMASS AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
MIN TEMPS. IN GENERAL...FORECAST IN OK SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AFTER ABOUT A 36 HOUR BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS...THE HUMIDITY
IS RETURNING IN EARNEST AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AS OF 19Z...APPEARS THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS EARLIER TODAY...TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED INTO
THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
AXIS ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED IN PEAK
HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF THE INDY METRO. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT OR BL
SHEAR AVAILABLE...STORMS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND
MULTICELLULAR WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING BEING THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS...LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER METMOS GUIDANCE WITH THE RETURN
OF THE MOIST HUMID AIRMASS. SHOULD SEE LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT WEEKEND WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...BRINGING PERIODIC THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE
WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY LAID OUT
ACROSS THE REGION...A RICH FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO FUELING A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS WARRANTS A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE THREAT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

AN UPPER WAVE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA AS IT DRIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE ACCOMPANYING. WHILE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE AROUND AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO MAXIMIZE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FUELING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. BESIDES MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...REGION WILL RESIDE IN
THE RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER JETLET PASSING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INTO THE NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL AGAIN BE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
STORMS REMAINING LARGELY SUBSEVERE.

WITH THE LOW MOVING EAST INTO QUEBEC...THE BETTER THREATS FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY AS THE DEEPER PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SLIPS SOUTH
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER NORTH...SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO
LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS THE WEAK
HIGH OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

SECOND SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION MAKES ITS ARRIVAL MONDAY AS A
SHARP UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A 30KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BRING A RENEWED SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS AND
POSSIBLY A BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS FORCING ALOFT...SHEAR
AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE. WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING IN HIGHER POPS FOR MONDAY.

TEMPS...HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP. PREFER THE WARMER MAV FOR SATURDAY WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND THE COOLER MET ON
SUNDAY. CONSALL WORKED WELL FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE WET AS A COLD FRONT
PRODUCES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT.  MEANWHILE...SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/0300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR KHUF TO JUST WEST OF KLAF WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTH NEXT FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN MOST
AREAS BY LATE EVENING. BUT MODELS INDICATE THEY MAY RETURN LATE
TONIGHT OVER WESTERN SECTIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

ON SATURDAY WE WILL BE UNDER  A HUMID AIRMASS AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
RESULT WITH INCREASE CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH
OR SOUTHWEST UP TO 15 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/DVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 300222
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1022 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...

AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRESENCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH A WARM HUMID
AIRMASS AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
MIN TEMPS. IN GENERAL...FORECAST IN OK SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AFTER ABOUT A 36 HOUR BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS...THE HUMIDITY
IS RETURNING IN EARNEST AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AS OF 19Z...APPEARS THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS EARLIER TODAY...TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED INTO
THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
AXIS ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED IN PEAK
HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF THE INDY METRO. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT OR BL
SHEAR AVAILABLE...STORMS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND
MULTICELLULAR WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING BEING THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS...LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER METMOS GUIDANCE WITH THE RETURN
OF THE MOIST HUMID AIRMASS. SHOULD SEE LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT WEEKEND WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...BRINGING PERIODIC THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE
WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY LAID OUT
ACROSS THE REGION...A RICH FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO FUELING A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS WARRANTS A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE THREAT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

AN UPPER WAVE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA AS IT DRIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE ACCOMPANYING. WHILE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE AROUND AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO MAXIMIZE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FUELING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. BESIDES MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...REGION WILL RESIDE IN
THE RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER JETLET PASSING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INTO THE NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL AGAIN BE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
STORMS REMAINING LARGELY SUBSEVERE.

WITH THE LOW MOVING EAST INTO QUEBEC...THE BETTER THREATS FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY AS THE DEEPER PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SLIPS SOUTH
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER NORTH...SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO
LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS THE WEAK
HIGH OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

SECOND SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION MAKES ITS ARRIVAL MONDAY AS A
SHARP UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A 30KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BRING A RENEWED SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS AND
POSSIBLY A BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS FORCING ALOFT...SHEAR
AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE. WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING IN HIGHER POPS FOR MONDAY.

TEMPS...HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP. PREFER THE WARMER MAV FOR SATURDAY WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND THE COOLER MET ON
SUNDAY. CONSALL WORKED WELL FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE WET AS A COLD FRONT
PRODUCES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT.  MEANWHILE...SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/0300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR KHUF TO JUST WEST OF KLAF WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTH NEXT FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN MOST
AREAS BY LATE EVENING. BUT MODELS INDICATE THEY MAY RETURN LATE
TONIGHT OVER WESTERN SECTIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

ON SATURDAY WE WILL BE UNDER  A HUMID AIRMASS AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
RESULT WITH INCREASE CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH
OR SOUTHWEST UP TO 15 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/DVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 300206
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1006 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRESENCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH A WARM HUMID
AIRMASS AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
MIN TEMPS. IN GENERAL...FORECAST IN OK SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AFTER ABOUT A 36 HOUR BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS...THE HUMIDITY
IS RETURNING IN EARNEST AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AS OF 19Z...APPEARS THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS EARLIER TODAY...TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED INTO
THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
AXIS ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED IN PEAK
HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF THE INDY METRO. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT OR BL
SHEAR AVAILABLE...STORMS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND
MULTICELLULAR WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING BEING THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS...LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER METMOS GUIDANCE WITH THE RETURN
OF THE MOIST HUMID AIRMASS. SHOULD SEE LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT WEEKEND WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...BRINGING PERIODIC THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE
WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY LAID OUT
ACROSS THE REGION...A RICH FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO FUELING A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS WARRANTS A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE THREAT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

AN UPPER WAVE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA AS IT DRIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE ACCOMPANYING. WHILE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE AROUND AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO MAXIMIZE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FUELING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. BESIDES MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...REGION WILL RESIDE IN
THE RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER JETLET PASSING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INTO THE NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL AGAIN BE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
STORMS REMAINING LARGELY SUBSEVERE.

WITH THE LOW MOVING EAST INTO QUEBEC...THE BETTER THREATS FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY AS THE DEEPER PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SLIPS SOUTH
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER NORTH...SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO
LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS THE WEAK
HIGH OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

SECOND SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION MAKES ITS ARRIVAL MONDAY AS A
SHARP UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A 30KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BRING A RENEWED SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS AND
POSSIBLY A BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS FORCING ALOFT...SHEAR
AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE. WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING IN HIGHER POPS FOR MONDAY.

TEMPS...HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP. PREFER THE WARMER MAV FOR SATURDAY WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND THE COOLER MET ON
SUNDAY. CONSALL WORKED WELL FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE WET AS A COLD FRONT
PRODUCES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT.  MEANWHILE...SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR KHUF TO JUST WEST OF KLAF WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTH NEXT FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN MOST
AREAS BY LATE EVENING. BUT MODELS INDICATE THEY MAY RETURN LATE
TONIGHT OVER WESTERN SECTIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

ON SATURDAY WE WILL BE UNDER  A HUMID AIRMASS AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
RESULT WITH INCREASE CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH
OR SOUTHWEST UP TO 15 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/DVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 300206
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1006 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRESENCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH A WARM HUMID
AIRMASS AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
MIN TEMPS. IN GENERAL...FORECAST IN OK SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AFTER ABOUT A 36 HOUR BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS...THE HUMIDITY
IS RETURNING IN EARNEST AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AS OF 19Z...APPEARS THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS EARLIER TODAY...TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED INTO
THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
AXIS ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED IN PEAK
HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF THE INDY METRO. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT OR BL
SHEAR AVAILABLE...STORMS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND
MULTICELLULAR WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING BEING THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS...LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER METMOS GUIDANCE WITH THE RETURN
OF THE MOIST HUMID AIRMASS. SHOULD SEE LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT WEEKEND WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...BRINGING PERIODIC THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE
WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY LAID OUT
ACROSS THE REGION...A RICH FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO FUELING A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS WARRANTS A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE THREAT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

AN UPPER WAVE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA AS IT DRIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE ACCOMPANYING. WHILE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE AROUND AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO MAXIMIZE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FUELING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. BESIDES MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...REGION WILL RESIDE IN
THE RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER JETLET PASSING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INTO THE NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL AGAIN BE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
STORMS REMAINING LARGELY SUBSEVERE.

WITH THE LOW MOVING EAST INTO QUEBEC...THE BETTER THREATS FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY AS THE DEEPER PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SLIPS SOUTH
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER NORTH...SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO
LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS THE WEAK
HIGH OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

SECOND SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION MAKES ITS ARRIVAL MONDAY AS A
SHARP UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A 30KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BRING A RENEWED SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS AND
POSSIBLY A BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS FORCING ALOFT...SHEAR
AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE. WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING IN HIGHER POPS FOR MONDAY.

TEMPS...HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP. PREFER THE WARMER MAV FOR SATURDAY WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND THE COOLER MET ON
SUNDAY. CONSALL WORKED WELL FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE WET AS A COLD FRONT
PRODUCES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT.  MEANWHILE...SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR KHUF TO JUST WEST OF KLAF WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTH NEXT FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN MOST
AREAS BY LATE EVENING. BUT MODELS INDICATE THEY MAY RETURN LATE
TONIGHT OVER WESTERN SECTIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

ON SATURDAY WE WILL BE UNDER  A HUMID AIRMASS AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
RESULT WITH INCREASE CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH
OR SOUTHWEST UP TO 15 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/DVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 292252
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
653 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRESENCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH A WARM HUMID
AIRMASS AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AFTER ABOUT A 36 HOUR BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS...THE HUMIDITY
IS RETURNING IN EARNEST AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AS OF 19Z...APPEARS THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS EARLIER TODAY...TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED INTO
THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
AXIS ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED IN PEAK
HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF THE INDY METRO. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT OR BL
SHEAR AVAILABLE...STORMS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND
MULTICELLULAR WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING BEING THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS...LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER METMOS GUIDANCE WITH THE RETURN
OF THE MOIST HUMID AIRMASS. SHOULD SEE LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT WEEKEND WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...BRINGING PERIODIC THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE
WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY LAID OUT
ACROSS THE REGION...A RICH FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO FUELING A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS WARRANTS A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE THREAT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

AN UPPER WAVE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA AS IT DRIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE ACCOMPANYING. WHILE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE AROUND AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO MAXIMIZE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FUELING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. BESIDES MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...REGION WILL RESIDE IN
THE RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER JETLET PASSING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INTO THE NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL AGAIN BE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
STORMS REMAINING LARGELY SUBSEVERE.

WITH THE LOW MOVING EAST INTO QUEBEC...THE BETTER THREATS FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY AS THE DEEPER PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SLIPS SOUTH
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER NORTH...SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO
LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS THE WEAK
HIGH OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

SECOND SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION MAKES ITS ARRIVAL MONDAY AS A
SHARP UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A 30KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BRING A RENEWED SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS AND
POSSIBLY A BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS FORCING ALOFT...SHEAR
AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE. WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING IN HIGHER POPS FOR MONDAY.

TEMPS...HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP. PREFER THE WARMER MAV FOR SATURDAY WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND THE COOLER MET ON
SUNDAY. CONSALL WORKED WELL FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE WET AS A COLD FRONT
PRODUCES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT.  MEANWHILE...SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR KHUF TO JUST WEST OF KLAF WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTH NEXT FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN MOST
AREAS BY LATE EVENING. BUT MODELS INDICATE THEY MAY RETURN LATE
TONIGHT OVER WESTERN SECTIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

ON SATURDAY WE WILL BE UNDER  A HUMID AIRMASS AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
RESULT WITH INCREASE CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH
OR SOUTHWEST UP TO 15 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 292252
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
653 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRESENCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH A WARM HUMID
AIRMASS AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AFTER ABOUT A 36 HOUR BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS...THE HUMIDITY
IS RETURNING IN EARNEST AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AS OF 19Z...APPEARS THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS EARLIER TODAY...TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED INTO
THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
AXIS ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED IN PEAK
HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF THE INDY METRO. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT OR BL
SHEAR AVAILABLE...STORMS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND
MULTICELLULAR WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING BEING THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS...LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER METMOS GUIDANCE WITH THE RETURN
OF THE MOIST HUMID AIRMASS. SHOULD SEE LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT WEEKEND WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...BRINGING PERIODIC THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE
WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY LAID OUT
ACROSS THE REGION...A RICH FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO FUELING A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS WARRANTS A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE THREAT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

AN UPPER WAVE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA AS IT DRIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE ACCOMPANYING. WHILE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE AROUND AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO MAXIMIZE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FUELING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. BESIDES MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...REGION WILL RESIDE IN
THE RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER JETLET PASSING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INTO THE NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL AGAIN BE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
STORMS REMAINING LARGELY SUBSEVERE.

WITH THE LOW MOVING EAST INTO QUEBEC...THE BETTER THREATS FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY AS THE DEEPER PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SLIPS SOUTH
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER NORTH...SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO
LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS THE WEAK
HIGH OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

SECOND SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION MAKES ITS ARRIVAL MONDAY AS A
SHARP UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A 30KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BRING A RENEWED SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS AND
POSSIBLY A BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS FORCING ALOFT...SHEAR
AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE. WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING IN HIGHER POPS FOR MONDAY.

TEMPS...HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP. PREFER THE WARMER MAV FOR SATURDAY WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND THE COOLER MET ON
SUNDAY. CONSALL WORKED WELL FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE WET AS A COLD FRONT
PRODUCES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT.  MEANWHILE...SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR KHUF TO JUST WEST OF KLAF WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTH NEXT FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN MOST
AREAS BY LATE EVENING. BUT MODELS INDICATE THEY MAY RETURN LATE
TONIGHT OVER WESTERN SECTIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

ON SATURDAY WE WILL BE UNDER  A HUMID AIRMASS AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
RESULT WITH INCREASE CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH
OR SOUTHWEST UP TO 15 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS















000
FXUS63 KIND 292028
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRESENCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH A WARM HUMID
AIRMASS AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AFTER ABOUT A 36 HOUR BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS...THE HUMIDITY
IS RETURNING IN EARNEST AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AS OF 19Z...APPEARS THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS EARLIER TODAY...TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED INTO
THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
AXIS ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED IN PEAK
HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF THE INDY METRO. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT OR BL
SHEAR AVAILABLE...STORMS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND
MULTICELLULAR WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING BEING THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS...LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER METMOS GUIDANCE WITH THE RETURN
OF THE MOIST HUMID AIRMASS. SHOULD SEE LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT WEEKEND WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...BRINGING PERIODIC THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE
WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY LAID OUT
ACROSS THE REGION...A RICH FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO FUELING A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS WARRANTS A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE THREAT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

AN UPPER WAVE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA AS IT DRIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE ACCOMPANYING. WHILE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE AROUND AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO MAXIMIZE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FUELING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. BESIDES MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...REGION WILL RESIDE IN
THE RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER JETLET PASSING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INTO THE NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL AGAIN BE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
STORMS REMAINING LARGELY SUBSEVERE.

WITH THE LOW MOVING EAST INTO QUEBEC...THE BETTER THREATS FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY AS THE DEEPER PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SLIPS SOUTH
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER NORTH...SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO
LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS THE WEAK
HIGH OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

SECOND SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION MAKES ITS ARRIVAL MONDAY AS A
SHARP UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A 30KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BRING A RENEWED SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS AND
POSSIBLY A BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS FORCING ALOFT...SHEAR
AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE. WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING IN HIGHER POPS FOR MONDAY.

TEMPS...HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP. PREFER THE WARMER MAV FOR SATURDAY WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND THE COOLER MET ON
SUNDAY. CONSALL WORKED WELL FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE WET AS A COLD FRONT
PRODUCES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT.  MEANWHILE...SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/2100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FORM ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. SO...BUMPED TIMING BACK A FEW HOURS
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KLAF...WHICH HAS SOME CONVECTION IN THE AREA
AT THIS TIME. COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON THOUGH AS A WARM FRONT SPREADS ACROSS THE
AREA. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING ANY SHOWER/STORMS
THAT DO FORM...BUT REMAIN AT VFR CATEGORY OUTSIDE ANY CONVECTION.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD TOMORROW AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW MORNING. THEY WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO 10 TO 12 KTS LATE IN TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 292028
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRESENCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH A WARM HUMID
AIRMASS AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AFTER ABOUT A 36 HOUR BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS...THE HUMIDITY
IS RETURNING IN EARNEST AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AS OF 19Z...APPEARS THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS EARLIER TODAY...TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED INTO
THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
AXIS ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED IN PEAK
HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF THE INDY METRO. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT OR BL
SHEAR AVAILABLE...STORMS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND
MULTICELLULAR WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING BEING THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS...LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER METMOS GUIDANCE WITH THE RETURN
OF THE MOIST HUMID AIRMASS. SHOULD SEE LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT WEEKEND WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...BRINGING PERIODIC THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE
WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY LAID OUT
ACROSS THE REGION...A RICH FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO FUELING A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS WARRANTS A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE THREAT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

AN UPPER WAVE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA AS IT DRIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE ACCOMPANYING. WHILE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE AROUND AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO MAXIMIZE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FUELING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. BESIDES MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...REGION WILL RESIDE IN
THE RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER JETLET PASSING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INTO THE NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL AGAIN BE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
STORMS REMAINING LARGELY SUBSEVERE.

WITH THE LOW MOVING EAST INTO QUEBEC...THE BETTER THREATS FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY AS THE DEEPER PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SLIPS SOUTH
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER NORTH...SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO
LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS THE WEAK
HIGH OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

SECOND SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION MAKES ITS ARRIVAL MONDAY AS A
SHARP UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A 30KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BRING A RENEWED SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS AND
POSSIBLY A BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS FORCING ALOFT...SHEAR
AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE. WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING IN HIGHER POPS FOR MONDAY.

TEMPS...HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP. PREFER THE WARMER MAV FOR SATURDAY WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND THE COOLER MET ON
SUNDAY. CONSALL WORKED WELL FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE WET AS A COLD FRONT
PRODUCES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT.  MEANWHILE...SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/2100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FORM ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. SO...BUMPED TIMING BACK A FEW HOURS
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KLAF...WHICH HAS SOME CONVECTION IN THE AREA
AT THIS TIME. COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON THOUGH AS A WARM FRONT SPREADS ACROSS THE
AREA. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING ANY SHOWER/STORMS
THAT DO FORM...BUT REMAIN AT VFR CATEGORY OUTSIDE ANY CONVECTION.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD TOMORROW AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW MORNING. THEY WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO 10 TO 12 KTS LATE IN TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 291951
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRESENCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH A WARM HUMID
AIRMASS AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AFTER ABOUT A 36 HOUR BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS...THE HUMIDITY
IS RETURNING IN EARNEST AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AS OF 19Z...APPEARS THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS EARLIER TODAY...TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED INTO
THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
AXIS ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED IN PEAK
HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF THE INDY METRO. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT OR BL
SHEAR AVAILABLE...STORMS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND
MULTICELLULAR WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING BEING THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS...LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER METMOS GUIDANCE WITH THE RETURN
OF THE MOIST HUMID AIRMASS. SHOULD SEE LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT WEEKEND WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...BRINGING PERIODIC THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE
WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY LAID OUT
ACROSS THE REGION...A RICH FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO FUELING A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS WARRANTS A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE THREAT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

AN UPPER WAVE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA AS IT DRIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE ACCOMPANYING. WHILE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE AROUND AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO MAXIMIZE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FUELING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. BESIDES MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...REGION WILL RESIDE IN
THE RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER JETLET PASSING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INTO THE NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL AGAIN BE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
STORMS REMAINING LARGELY SUBSEVERE.

WITH THE LOW MOVING EAST INTO QUEBEC...THE BETTER THREATS FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY AS THE DEEPER PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SLIPS SOUTH
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER NORTH...SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO
LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS THE WEAK
HIGH OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

SECOND SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION MAKES ITS ARRIVAL MONDAY AS A
SHARP UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A 30KT LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BRING A RENEWED SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
BY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS AND POSSIBLY A
BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS FORCING ALOFT...SHEAR AND STORM
RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE.
WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING IN HIGHER POPS FOR MONDAY.

TEMPS...HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP. PREFER THE WARMER MAV FOR SATURDAY WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND THE COOLER MET ON
SUNDAY. CONSALL WORKED WELL FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE WET AS A COLD FRONT
PRODUCES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT.  MEANWHILE...SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FORM ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. SO...BUMPED TIMING BACK A FEW HOURS
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KLAF...WHICH HAS SOME CONVECTION IN THE AREA
AT THIS TIME. COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON THOUGH AS A WARM FRONT SPREADS ACROSS THE
AREA. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING ANY SHOWER/STORMS
THAT DO FORM...BUT REMAIN AT VFR CATEGORY OUTSIDE ANY CONVECTION.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD TOMORROW AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW MORNING. THEY WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO 10 TO 12 KTS LATE IN TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 291951
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRESENCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH A WARM HUMID
AIRMASS AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AFTER ABOUT A 36 HOUR BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS...THE HUMIDITY
IS RETURNING IN EARNEST AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AS OF 19Z...APPEARS THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS EARLIER TODAY...TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED INTO
THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
AXIS ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED IN PEAK
HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF THE INDY METRO. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT OR BL
SHEAR AVAILABLE...STORMS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND
MULTICELLULAR WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING BEING THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS...LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER METMOS GUIDANCE WITH THE RETURN
OF THE MOIST HUMID AIRMASS. SHOULD SEE LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT WEEKEND WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...BRINGING PERIODIC THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE
WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY LAID OUT
ACROSS THE REGION...A RICH FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO FUELING A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS WARRANTS A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE THREAT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

AN UPPER WAVE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA AS IT DRIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE ACCOMPANYING. WHILE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE AROUND AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO MAXIMIZE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FUELING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. BESIDES MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...REGION WILL RESIDE IN
THE RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER JETLET PASSING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INTO THE NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL AGAIN BE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
STORMS REMAINING LARGELY SUBSEVERE.

WITH THE LOW MOVING EAST INTO QUEBEC...THE BETTER THREATS FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY AS THE DEEPER PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SLIPS SOUTH
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER NORTH...SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO
LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS THE WEAK
HIGH OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

SECOND SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION MAKES ITS ARRIVAL MONDAY AS A
SHARP UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A 30KT LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BRING A RENEWED SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
BY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS AND POSSIBLY A
BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS FORCING ALOFT...SHEAR AND STORM
RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE.
WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING IN HIGHER POPS FOR MONDAY.

TEMPS...HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP. PREFER THE WARMER MAV FOR SATURDAY WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND THE COOLER MET ON
SUNDAY. CONSALL WORKED WELL FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE WET AS A COLD FRONT
PRODUCES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT.  MEANWHILE...SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FORM ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. SO...BUMPED TIMING BACK A FEW HOURS
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KLAF...WHICH HAS SOME CONVECTION IN THE AREA
AT THIS TIME. COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON THOUGH AS A WARM FRONT SPREADS ACROSS THE
AREA. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING ANY SHOWER/STORMS
THAT DO FORM...BUT REMAIN AT VFR CATEGORY OUTSIDE ANY CONVECTION.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD TOMORROW AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW MORNING. THEY WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO 10 TO 12 KTS LATE IN TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 291739
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
139 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS A RETURN TO HUMID AIR. ANOTHER FRONT
ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WARM FRONT ALIGNED ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AT 14Z...WITH A MUCH MORE HUMID AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ALREADY INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY. TEMPS WERE IN THE 70S THIS
MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS ENCOMPASSING A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS FORECAST IS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FOCUS FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
CAPTURES THIS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN GREATER SUPPLY. BUMPED POPS
DOWN A SMIDGE OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT AND SHEAR
EXPECTED...CONVECTION WILL BE IN A MULTICELLULAR MODE WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING AS PRIMARY IMPACTS.

BUMPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE BOARD. ZONE AND
GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THUS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE BRINGING IN FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN A THREAT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS FORCING DIMINISHES BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORIES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND GENERALLY LOOKS BEST FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR HIGHS...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MOST PLACES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. CUT MAV AS NEEDED
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FORM ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. SO...BUMPED TIMING BACK A FEW HOURS
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KLAF...WHICH HAS SOME CONVECTION IN THE AREA
AT THIS TIME. COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON THOUGH AS A WARM FRONT SPREADS ACROSS THE
AREA. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING ANY SHOWER/STORMS
THAT DO FORM...BUT REMAIN AT VFR CATEGORY OUTSIDE ANY CONVECTION.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD TOMORROW AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW MORNING. THEY WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO 10 TO 12 KTS LATE IN TAF PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 291739
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
139 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS A RETURN TO HUMID AIR. ANOTHER FRONT
ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WARM FRONT ALIGNED ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AT 14Z...WITH A MUCH MORE HUMID AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ALREADY INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY. TEMPS WERE IN THE 70S THIS
MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS ENCOMPASSING A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS FORECAST IS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FOCUS FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
CAPTURES THIS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN GREATER SUPPLY. BUMPED POPS
DOWN A SMIDGE OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT AND SHEAR
EXPECTED...CONVECTION WILL BE IN A MULTICELLULAR MODE WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING AS PRIMARY IMPACTS.

BUMPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE BOARD. ZONE AND
GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THUS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE BRINGING IN FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN A THREAT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS FORCING DIMINISHES BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORIES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND GENERALLY LOOKS BEST FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR HIGHS...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MOST PLACES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. CUT MAV AS NEEDED
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FORM ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. SO...BUMPED TIMING BACK A FEW HOURS
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KLAF...WHICH HAS SOME CONVECTION IN THE AREA
AT THIS TIME. COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON THOUGH AS A WARM FRONT SPREADS ACROSS THE
AREA. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING ANY SHOWER/STORMS
THAT DO FORM...BUT REMAIN AT VFR CATEGORY OUTSIDE ANY CONVECTION.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD TOMORROW AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW MORNING. THEY WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO 10 TO 12 KTS LATE IN TAF PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 291412
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1012 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS A RETURN TO HUMID AIR. ANOTHER FRONT
ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WARM FRONT ALIGNED ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AT 14Z...WITH A MUCH MORE HUMID AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ALREADY INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY. TEMPS WERE IN THE 70S THIS
MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS ENCOMPASSING A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS FORECAST IS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FOCUS FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
CAPTURES THIS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN GREATER SUPPLY. BUMPED POPS
DOWN A SMIDGE OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT AND SHEAR
EXPECTED...CONVECTION WILL BE IN A MULTICELLULAR MODE WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING AS PRIMARY IMPACTS.

BUMPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE BOARD. ZONE AND
GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THUS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE BRINGING IN FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN A THREAT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS FORCING DIMINISHES BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORIES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND GENERALLY LOOKS BEST FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR HIGHS...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MOST PLACES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. CUT MAV AS NEEDED
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1011 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
17Z-04Z WITH A LULL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WILL JUST GO WITH VCTS AND BROKEN DIURNAL VFR
CU...ALTHOUGH MVFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BUT SHOULD
REMAIN UP ENOUGH...IN ADDITION TO THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...TO KEEP
FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING OR OVERNIGHT.

&&


.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 291412
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1012 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS A RETURN TO HUMID AIR. ANOTHER FRONT
ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WARM FRONT ALIGNED ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AT 14Z...WITH A MUCH MORE HUMID AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ALREADY INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY. TEMPS WERE IN THE 70S THIS
MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS ENCOMPASSING A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS FORECAST IS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FOCUS FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
CAPTURES THIS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN GREATER SUPPLY. BUMPED POPS
DOWN A SMIDGE OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT AND SHEAR
EXPECTED...CONVECTION WILL BE IN A MULTICELLULAR MODE WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING AS PRIMARY IMPACTS.

BUMPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE BOARD. ZONE AND
GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THUS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE BRINGING IN FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN A THREAT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS FORCING DIMINISHES BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORIES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND GENERALLY LOOKS BEST FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR HIGHS...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MOST PLACES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. CUT MAV AS NEEDED
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1011 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
17Z-04Z WITH A LULL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WILL JUST GO WITH VCTS AND BROKEN DIURNAL VFR
CU...ALTHOUGH MVFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BUT SHOULD
REMAIN UP ENOUGH...IN ADDITION TO THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...TO KEEP
FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING OR OVERNIGHT.

&&


.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 291405
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1005 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS A RETURN TO HUMID AIR. ANOTHER FRONT
ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WARM FRONT ALIGNED ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AT 14Z...WITH A MUCH MORE HUMID AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ALREADY INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY. TEMPS WERE IN THE 70S THIS
MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS ENCOMPASSING A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS FORECAST IS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FOCUS FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
CAPTURES THIS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN GREATER SUPPLY. BUMPED POPS
DOWN A SMIDGE OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT AND SHEAR
EXPECTED...CONVECTION WILL BE IN A MULTICELLULAR MODE WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING AS PRIMARY IMPACTS.

BUMPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE BOARD. ZONE AND
GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THUS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE BRINGING IN FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN A THREAT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS FORCING DIMINISHES BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORIES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND GENERALLY LOOKS BEST FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR HIGHS...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MOST PLACES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. CUT MAV AS NEEDED
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 291200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 633 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
17Z-04Z WITH A LULL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WILL JUST GO WITH VCTS AND BROKEN DIURNAL VFR
CU...ALTHOUGH MVFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BUT SHOULD
REMAIN UP ENOUGH...IN ADDITION TO THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...TO KEEP
FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING OR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 291405
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1005 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS A RETURN TO HUMID AIR. ANOTHER FRONT
ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WARM FRONT ALIGNED ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AT 14Z...WITH A MUCH MORE HUMID AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ALREADY INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY. TEMPS WERE IN THE 70S THIS
MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS ENCOMPASSING A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS FORECAST IS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FOCUS FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
CAPTURES THIS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN GREATER SUPPLY. BUMPED POPS
DOWN A SMIDGE OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT AND SHEAR
EXPECTED...CONVECTION WILL BE IN A MULTICELLULAR MODE WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING AS PRIMARY IMPACTS.

BUMPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE BOARD. ZONE AND
GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THUS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE BRINGING IN FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN A THREAT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS FORCING DIMINISHES BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORIES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND GENERALLY LOOKS BEST FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR HIGHS...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MOST PLACES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. CUT MAV AS NEEDED
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 291200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 633 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
17Z-04Z WITH A LULL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WILL JUST GO WITH VCTS AND BROKEN DIURNAL VFR
CU...ALTHOUGH MVFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BUT SHOULD
REMAIN UP ENOUGH...IN ADDITION TO THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...TO KEEP
FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING OR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 291033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
633 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS A RETURN TO HUMID AIR. ANOTHER FRONT
ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LINGERING RAIN FROM THURSDAY EVENING CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVE INTO THE AREA.

POPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK SO DON/T
SEE THE NEED FOR ANYTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS. WENT HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER ENERGY.

MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT WARM SOME LOCATIONS GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL CUT IT WHERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THUS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE BRINGING IN FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN A THREAT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS FORCING DIMINISHES BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORIES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND GENERALLY LOOKS BEST FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR HIGHS...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MOST PLACES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. CUT MAV AS NEEDED
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 291200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 633 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
17Z-04Z WITH A LULL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WILL JUST GO WITH VCTS AND BROKEN DIURNAL VFR
CU...ALTHOUGH MVFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BUT SHOULD
REMAIN UP ENOUGH...IN ADDITION TO THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...TO KEEP
FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING OR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 291033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
633 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS A RETURN TO HUMID AIR. ANOTHER FRONT
ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LINGERING RAIN FROM THURSDAY EVENING CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVE INTO THE AREA.

POPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK SO DON/T
SEE THE NEED FOR ANYTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS. WENT HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER ENERGY.

MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT WARM SOME LOCATIONS GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL CUT IT WHERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THUS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE BRINGING IN FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN A THREAT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS FORCING DIMINISHES BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORIES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND GENERALLY LOOKS BEST FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR HIGHS...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MOST PLACES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. CUT MAV AS NEEDED
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 291200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 633 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
17Z-04Z WITH A LULL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WILL JUST GO WITH VCTS AND BROKEN DIURNAL VFR
CU...ALTHOUGH MVFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BUT SHOULD
REMAIN UP ENOUGH...IN ADDITION TO THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...TO KEEP
FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING OR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 290827
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
327 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS A RETURN TO HUMID AIR. ANOTHER FRONT
ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LINGERING RAIN FROM THURSDAY EVENING CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVE INTO THE AREA.

POPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK SO DON/T
SEE THE NEED FOR ANYTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS. WENT HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER ENERGY.

MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT WARM SOME LOCATIONS GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL CUT IT WHERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THUS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE BRINGING IN FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN A THREAT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS FORCING DIMINISHES BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORIES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND GENERALLY LOOKS BEST FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR HIGHS...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MOST PLACES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. CUT MAV AS NEEDED
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT KBMG AND KHUF.
ALSO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ESPECIALLY AT KHUF AND KLAF.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS KENTUCKY AND ILLINOIS WILL BEGIN MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY
SCATTERED CU WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MODELS BRING AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATER
FRIDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS.  WILL MENTION VCTS AT KHUF AND KLAF. ELSEWHERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS FAR OUT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH 8 TO 10
KNOTS FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JH/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 290827
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
327 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS A RETURN TO HUMID AIR. ANOTHER FRONT
ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LINGERING RAIN FROM THURSDAY EVENING CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVE INTO THE AREA.

POPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK SO DON/T
SEE THE NEED FOR ANYTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS. WENT HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER ENERGY.

MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT WARM SOME LOCATIONS GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL CUT IT WHERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THUS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE BRINGING IN FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN A THREAT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS FORCING DIMINISHES BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORIES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND GENERALLY LOOKS BEST FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR HIGHS...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MOST PLACES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. CUT MAV AS NEEDED
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT KBMG AND KHUF.
ALSO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ESPECIALLY AT KHUF AND KLAF.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS KENTUCKY AND ILLINOIS WILL BEGIN MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY
SCATTERED CU WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MODELS BRING AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATER
FRIDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS.  WILL MENTION VCTS AT KHUF AND KLAF. ELSEWHERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS FAR OUT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH 8 TO 10
KNOTS FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JH/MK

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