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000
FXUS63 KIND 040956
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
556 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUT
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STALLS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TRIGGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS DRIFTED FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE.

TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE INDICATING MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...SO AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT PROGGED
FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL ON SUNDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE PROJECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY
NIGHT AS FORCING INTENSIFIES WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR FORCING OR DYNAMICS.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MID LEVELS SUGGEST SOME AREAS OF HIGH RH PUSHING OVER
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POP GOING AS SEEN IN
ALL BLEND.

LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS
SUSPECT. AGAIN...ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS...THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 547 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

LINGERING MORNING FOG AT LAF AND BMG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS
MORNING AS HEATING RESUMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO CENTRAL INDIAN FROM THE WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE ATTAINABLE MIDDLE 70S AND CU RULE IS
NEGATIVE...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT CU TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES...SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 050800Z AT LAF...BMG AND HUF.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 040956
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
556 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUT
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STALLS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TRIGGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS DRIFTED FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE.

TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE INDICATING MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...SO AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT PROGGED
FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL ON SUNDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE PROJECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY
NIGHT AS FORCING INTENSIFIES WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR FORCING OR DYNAMICS.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MID LEVELS SUGGEST SOME AREAS OF HIGH RH PUSHING OVER
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POP GOING AS SEEN IN
ALL BLEND.

LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS
SUSPECT. AGAIN...ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS...THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 547 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

LINGERING MORNING FOG AT LAF AND BMG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS
MORNING AS HEATING RESUMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO CENTRAL INDIAN FROM THE WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE ATTAINABLE MIDDLE 70S AND CU RULE IS
NEGATIVE...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT CU TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES...SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 050800Z AT LAF...BMG AND HUF.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 040819
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
419 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUT
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STALLS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TRIGGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS DRIFTED FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE.

TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE INDICATING MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...SO AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT PROGGED
FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL ON SUNDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE PROJECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY
NIGHT AS FORCING INTENSIFIES WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR FORCING OR DYNAMICS.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MID LEVELS SUGGEST SOME AREAS OF HIGH RH PUSHING OVER
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POP GOING AS SEEN IN
ALL BLEND.

LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS
SUSPECT. AGAIN...ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS...THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE VFR CIGS OVER
INDY DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST...EXITING INDY. WILL ALLOW CIGS
TO BECOME UNLIMITED AS CLEAR SKIES SEEN MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE TAFS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

/DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

UPPER WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BUT
STRATOCU WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KBMG...KHUF AND
KIND UNTIL STRONGER SUBSIDENCE SPREADS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KIND THROUGH DAYBREAK.

FANTASTIC INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR AVIATORS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNAL CU
FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. MOST CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 040819
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
419 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUT
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STALLS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TRIGGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS DRIFTED FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE.

TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE INDICATING MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...SO AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT PROGGED
FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL ON SUNDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE PROJECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY
NIGHT AS FORCING INTENSIFIES WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR FORCING OR DYNAMICS.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MID LEVELS SUGGEST SOME AREAS OF HIGH RH PUSHING OVER
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POP GOING AS SEEN IN
ALL BLEND.

LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS
SUSPECT. AGAIN...ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS...THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE VFR CIGS OVER
INDY DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST...EXITING INDY. WILL ALLOW CIGS
TO BECOME UNLIMITED AS CLEAR SKIES SEEN MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE TAFS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

/DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

UPPER WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BUT
STRATOCU WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KBMG...KHUF AND
KIND UNTIL STRONGER SUBSIDENCE SPREADS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KIND THROUGH DAYBREAK.

FANTASTIC INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR AVIATORS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNAL CU
FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. MOST CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 040755
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
355 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUT
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STALLS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TRIGGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS DRIFTED FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE.

TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE INDICATING MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...SO AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT PROGGED
FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL ON SUNDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE PROJECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY
NIGHT AS FORCING INTENSIFIES WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR FORCING OR DYNAMICS.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MID LEVELS SUGGEST SOME AREAS OF HIGH RH PUSHING OVER
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POP GOING AS SEEN IN
ALL BLEND.

LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS
SUSPECT. AGAIN...ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS...THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

UPPER WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BUT
STRATOCU WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KBMG...KHUF AND
KIND UNTIL STRONGER SUBSIDENCE SPREADS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KIND THROUGH DAYBREAK.

FANTASTIC INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR AVIATORS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNAL CU
FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. MOST CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 040755
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
355 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUT
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STALLS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TRIGGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS DRIFTED FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE.

TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE INDICATING MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...SO AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT PROGGED
FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL ON SUNDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE PROJECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY
NIGHT AS FORCING INTENSIFIES WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR FORCING OR DYNAMICS.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MID LEVELS SUGGEST SOME AREAS OF HIGH RH PUSHING OVER
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POP GOING AS SEEN IN
ALL BLEND.

LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS
SUSPECT. AGAIN...ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS...THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

UPPER WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BUT
STRATOCU WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KBMG...KHUF AND
KIND UNTIL STRONGER SUBSIDENCE SPREADS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KIND THROUGH DAYBREAK.

FANTASTIC INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR AVIATORS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNAL CU
FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. MOST CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 040635
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WILL BLANKET A 15 POP WITH ISOLATED WORDING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS PER RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AND SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR FORCING OR DYNAMICS.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MID LEVELS SUGGEST SOME AREAS OF HIGH RH PUSHING OVER
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POP GOING AS SEEN IN
ALL BLEND.

LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS
SUSPECT. AGAIN...ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS...THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

UPPER WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BUT
STRATOCU WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KBMG...KHUF AND
KIND UNTIL STRONGER SUBSIDENCE SPREADS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KIND THROUGH DAYBREAK.

FANTASTIC INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR AVIATORS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNAL CU
FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. MOST CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 040635
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WILL BLANKET A 15 POP WITH ISOLATED WORDING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS PER RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AND SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR FORCING OR DYNAMICS.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MID LEVELS SUGGEST SOME AREAS OF HIGH RH PUSHING OVER
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POP GOING AS SEEN IN
ALL BLEND.

LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS
SUSPECT. AGAIN...ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS...THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

UPPER WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BUT
STRATOCU WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KBMG...KHUF AND
KIND UNTIL STRONGER SUBSIDENCE SPREADS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KIND THROUGH DAYBREAK.

FANTASTIC INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR AVIATORS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNAL CU
FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. MOST CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 040333 RRA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1133 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WILL BLANKET A 15 POP WITH ISOLATED WORDING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS PER RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AND SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
MODELS MOVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
THEN ALL MODELS ARE QUITE WET TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OUR REGION.  THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EURO TRENDING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEMNH KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW WILL
BLEND AND ONLY MENTION 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOO COOL ON LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THEY ACT AS THE FRONT ON TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RAISE LOWS
SOME.  OVERALL SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM OK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

UPPER WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BUT
STRATOCU WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KBMG...KHUF AND
KIND UNTIL STRONGER SUBSIDENCE SPREADS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KIND THROUGH DAYBREAK.

FANTASTIC INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR AVIATORS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNAL CU
FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. MOST CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 040225 RRA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WILL BLANKET A 15 POP WITH ISOLATED WORDING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS PER RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AND SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
MODELS MOVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
THEN ALL MODELS ARE QUITE WET TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OUR REGION.  THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EURO TRENDING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEMNH KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW WILL
BLEND AND ONLY MENTION 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOO COOL ON LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THEY ACT AS THE FRONT ON TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RAISE LOWS
SOME.  OVERALL SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM OK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040300Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE 03Z UPDATE AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. VFR STRATOCU LIKELY LINGERS AT
KBMG...KIND AND POSSIBLY KHUF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING ARRIVES.

00Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS MAY STILL IMPACT KBMG THIS EVENING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

PESKY UPPER WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...TAKING ALL OF THE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS
ALONG WITH IT. OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH LIGHT N/NE FLOW. COULD SEE PATCHY
FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KIND
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

FANTASTIC INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR AVIATORS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 040225 RRA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WILL BLANKET A 15 POP WITH ISOLATED WORDING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS PER RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AND SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
MODELS MOVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
THEN ALL MODELS ARE QUITE WET TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OUR REGION.  THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EURO TRENDING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEMNH KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW WILL
BLEND AND ONLY MENTION 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOO COOL ON LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THEY ACT AS THE FRONT ON TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RAISE LOWS
SOME.  OVERALL SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM OK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040300Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE 03Z UPDATE AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. VFR STRATOCU LIKELY LINGERS AT
KBMG...KIND AND POSSIBLY KHUF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING ARRIVES.

00Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS MAY STILL IMPACT KBMG THIS EVENING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

PESKY UPPER WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...TAKING ALL OF THE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS
ALONG WITH IT. OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH LIGHT N/NE FLOW. COULD SEE PATCHY
FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KIND
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

FANTASTIC INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR AVIATORS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 032303 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
702 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WILL BLANKET A 15 POP WITH ISOLATED WORDING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS PER RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AND SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
MODELS MOVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
THEN ALL MODELS ARE QUITE WET TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OUR REGION.  THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EURO TRENDING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEMNH KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW WILL
BLEND AND ONLY MENTION 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOO COOL ON LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THEY ACT AS THE FRONT ON TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RAISE LOWS
SOME.  OVERALL SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM OK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 701 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR CEILINGS MAY STILL IMPACT KBMG THIS EVENING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

PESKY UPPER WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...TAKING ALL OF THE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS
ALONG WITH IT. OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH LIGHT N/NE FLOW. COULD SEE PATCHY
FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KIND
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

FANTASTIC INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR AVIATORS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 032303 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
702 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WILL BLANKET A 15 POP WITH ISOLATED WORDING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS PER RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AND SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
MODELS MOVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
THEN ALL MODELS ARE QUITE WET TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OUR REGION.  THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EURO TRENDING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEMNH KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW WILL
BLEND AND ONLY MENTION 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOO COOL ON LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THEY ACT AS THE FRONT ON TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RAISE LOWS
SOME.  OVERALL SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM OK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 701 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR CEILINGS MAY STILL IMPACT KBMG THIS EVENING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

PESKY UPPER WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...TAKING ALL OF THE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS
ALONG WITH IT. OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH LIGHT N/NE FLOW. COULD SEE PATCHY
FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KIND
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

FANTASTIC INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR AVIATORS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 032302
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
702 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WILL BLANKET A 15 POP WITH ISOLATED WORDING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS PER RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AND SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
MODELS MOVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
THEN ALL MODELS ARE QUITE WET TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OUR REGION.  THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EURO TRENDING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEMNH KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW WILL
BLEND AND ONLY MENTION 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOO COOL ON LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THEY ACT AS THE FRONT ON TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RAISE LOWS
SOME.  OVERALL SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM OK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 032100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE UPDATE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE A BIT
MORE ABUNDANT AS FAR NORTH AS KHUF AND KIND. THE LOWER CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. REST OF THE FORECASTS IN GOOD SHAPE.

18Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS
OF MVFR OR IFR FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE...VFR REST OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA CAUSING AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT LATER
TONIGHT.

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WITH FEW POCKETS OF IFR FOG ESPECIALLY
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE EXPECT
FEW-SCATTERED CU SATURDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 032301
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
701 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
MODELS MOVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
THEN ALL MODELS ARE QUITE WET TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OUR REGION.  THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EURO TRENDING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEMNH KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW WILL
BLEND AND ONLY MENTION 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOO COOL ON LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THEY ACT AS THE FRONT ON TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RAISE LOWS
SOME.  OVERALL SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM OK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 701 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR CEILINGS MAY STILL IMPACT KBMG THIS EVENING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

PESKY UPPER WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...TAKING ALL OF THE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS
ALONG WITH IT. OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH LIGHT N/NE FLOW. COULD SEE PATCHY
FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KIND
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

FANTASTIC INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR AVIATORS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 032301
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
701 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
MODELS MOVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
THEN ALL MODELS ARE QUITE WET TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OUR REGION.  THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EURO TRENDING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEMNH KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW WILL
BLEND AND ONLY MENTION 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOO COOL ON LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THEY ACT AS THE FRONT ON TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RAISE LOWS
SOME.  OVERALL SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM OK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 701 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR CEILINGS MAY STILL IMPACT KBMG THIS EVENING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

PESKY UPPER WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...TAKING ALL OF THE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS
ALONG WITH IT. OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH LIGHT N/NE FLOW. COULD SEE PATCHY
FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KIND
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

FANTASTIC INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR AVIATORS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 032015
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
415 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
MODELS MOVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
THEN ALL MODELS ARE QUITE WET TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OUR REGION.  THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EURO TRENDING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEMNH KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW WILL
BLEND AND ONLY MENTION 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOO COOL ON LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THEY ACT AS THE FRONT ON TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RAISE LOWS
SOME.  OVERALL SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM OK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
MOST PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 032100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE UPDATE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE A BIT
MORE ABUNDANT AS FAR NORTH AS KHUF AND KIND. THE LOWER CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. REST OF THE FORECASTS IN GOOD SHAPE.

18Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS
OF MVFR OR IFR FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE...VFR REST OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA CAUSING AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT LATER
TONIGHT.

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WITH FEW POCKETS OF IFR FOG ESPECIALLY
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE EXPECT
FEW-SCATTERED CU SATURDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS



















000
FXUS63 KIND 032015
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
415 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
MODELS MOVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
THEN ALL MODELS ARE QUITE WET TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OUR REGION.  THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EURO TRENDING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEMNH KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW WILL
BLEND AND ONLY MENTION 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOO COOL ON LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THEY ACT AS THE FRONT ON TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RAISE LOWS
SOME.  OVERALL SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM OK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
MOST PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 032100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE UPDATE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE A BIT
MORE ABUNDANT AS FAR NORTH AS KHUF AND KIND. THE LOWER CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. REST OF THE FORECASTS IN GOOD SHAPE.

18Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS
OF MVFR OR IFR FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE...VFR REST OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA CAUSING AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT LATER
TONIGHT.

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WITH FEW POCKETS OF IFR FOG ESPECIALLY
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE EXPECT
FEW-SCATTERED CU SATURDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS




















000
FXUS63 KIND 032015
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
415 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
MODELS MOVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
THEN ALL MODELS ARE QUITE WET TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OUR REGION.  THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EURO TRENDING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEMNH KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW WILL
BLEND AND ONLY MENTION 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOO COOL ON LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THEY ACT AS THE FRONT ON TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RAISE LOWS
SOME.  OVERALL SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM OK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
MOST PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 032100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE UPDATE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE A BIT
MORE ABUNDANT AS FAR NORTH AS KHUF AND KIND. THE LOWER CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. REST OF THE FORECASTS IN GOOD SHAPE.

18Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS
OF MVFR OR IFR FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE...VFR REST OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA CAUSING AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT LATER
TONIGHT.

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WITH FEW POCKETS OF IFR FOG ESPECIALLY
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE EXPECT
FEW-SCATTERED CU SATURDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS



















000
FXUS63 KIND 032015
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
415 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
MODELS MOVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
THEN ALL MODELS ARE QUITE WET TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OUR REGION.  THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EURO TRENDING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEMNH KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW WILL
BLEND AND ONLY MENTION 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOO COOL ON LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THEY ACT AS THE FRONT ON TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RAISE LOWS
SOME.  OVERALL SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM OK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
MOST PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 032100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE UPDATE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE A BIT
MORE ABUNDANT AS FAR NORTH AS KHUF AND KIND. THE LOWER CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. REST OF THE FORECASTS IN GOOD SHAPE.

18Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS
OF MVFR OR IFR FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE...VFR REST OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA CAUSING AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT LATER
TONIGHT.

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WITH FEW POCKETS OF IFR FOG ESPECIALLY
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE EXPECT
FEW-SCATTERED CU SATURDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS




















000
FXUS63 KIND 031854
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
MODELS MOVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
THEN ALL MODELS ARE QUITE WET TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OUR REGION.  THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EURO TRENDING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEMNH KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW WILL
BLEND AND ONLY MENTION 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOO COOL ON LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THEY ACT AS THE FRONT ON TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RAISE LOWS
SOME.  OVERALL SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM OK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
MOST PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS
OF MVFR OR IFR FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE...VFR REST OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA CAUSING AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT LATER
TONIGHT.

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WITH FEW POCKETS OF IFR FOG ESPECIALLY
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE EXPECT
FEW-SCATTERED CU SATURDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

















000
FXUS63 KIND 031854
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
MODELS MOVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
THEN ALL MODELS ARE QUITE WET TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OUR REGION.  THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EURO TRENDING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEMNH KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW WILL
BLEND AND ONLY MENTION 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOO COOL ON LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THEY ACT AS THE FRONT ON TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RAISE LOWS
SOME.  OVERALL SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM OK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
MOST PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS
OF MVFR OR IFR FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE...VFR REST OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA CAUSING AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT LATER
TONIGHT.

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WITH FEW POCKETS OF IFR FOG ESPECIALLY
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE EXPECT
FEW-SCATTERED CU SATURDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
















000
FXUS63 KIND 031854
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
MODELS MOVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
THEN ALL MODELS ARE QUITE WET TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OUR REGION.  THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EURO TRENDING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEMNH KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW WILL
BLEND AND ONLY MENTION 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOO COOL ON LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THEY ACT AS THE FRONT ON TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RAISE LOWS
SOME.  OVERALL SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM OK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
MOST PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS
OF MVFR OR IFR FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE...VFR REST OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA CAUSING AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT LATER
TONIGHT.

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WITH FEW POCKETS OF IFR FOG ESPECIALLY
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE EXPECT
FEW-SCATTERED CU SATURDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
















000
FXUS63 KIND 031828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

GFS SHOWS MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FORCING DYNAMICS AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS DEPICTS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...AS IT BECOMES ELONGATED AND SLOWLY WASHES OUT.
THUS HAVE INCLUDED POPS STARTING ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR PRECIP CHANCES AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FIRST ARRIVES IN THE AREA. SUPERBLEND THEN
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
SUPPORT...CONFIDENCE IN RAIN LATE NEXT WORKWEEK REMAINS LOW.

GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS APPEARS
REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS
OF MVFR OR IFR FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE...VFR REST OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA CAUSING AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT LATER
TONIGHT.

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WITH FEW POCKETS OF IFR FOG ESPECIALLY
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE EXPECT
FEW-SCATTERED CU SATURDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 031828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

GFS SHOWS MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FORCING DYNAMICS AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS DEPICTS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...AS IT BECOMES ELONGATED AND SLOWLY WASHES OUT.
THUS HAVE INCLUDED POPS STARTING ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR PRECIP CHANCES AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FIRST ARRIVES IN THE AREA. SUPERBLEND THEN
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
SUPPORT...CONFIDENCE IN RAIN LATE NEXT WORKWEEK REMAINS LOW.

GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS APPEARS
REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS
OF MVFR OR IFR FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE...VFR REST OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA CAUSING AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT LATER
TONIGHT.

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WITH FEW POCKETS OF IFR FOG ESPECIALLY
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE EXPECT
FEW-SCATTERED CU SATURDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 031828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

GFS SHOWS MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FORCING DYNAMICS AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS DEPICTS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...AS IT BECOMES ELONGATED AND SLOWLY WASHES OUT.
THUS HAVE INCLUDED POPS STARTING ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR PRECIP CHANCES AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FIRST ARRIVES IN THE AREA. SUPERBLEND THEN
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
SUPPORT...CONFIDENCE IN RAIN LATE NEXT WORKWEEK REMAINS LOW.

GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS APPEARS
REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS
OF MVFR OR IFR FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE...VFR REST OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA CAUSING AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT LATER
TONIGHT.

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WITH FEW POCKETS OF IFR FOG ESPECIALLY
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE EXPECT
FEW-SCATTERED CU SATURDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 031726
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
125 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY TONIGHT...AND
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY
NIGHT...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
IT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AND KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...BUT THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND POPS MAY HAVE TO BE INSERTED WITH FUTURE
UPDATES OVER THOSE COUNTIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE SINCE PATTERN WILL BE THE
SAME AS YESTERDAY...AND UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WERE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES FARTHER
EAST...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER
THAT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE BENIGN PATTERN...SO WENT
WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

GFS SHOWS MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FORCING DYNAMICS AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS DEPICTS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...AS IT BECOMES ELONGATED AND SLOWLY WASHES OUT.
THUS HAVE INCLUDED POPS STARTING ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR PRECIP CHANCES AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FIRST ARRIVES IN THE AREA. SUPERBLEND THEN
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
SUPPORT...CONFIDENCE IN RAIN LATE NEXT WORKWEEK REMAINS LOW.

GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS APPEARS
REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS
OF MVFR OR IFR FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE...VFR REST OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA CAUSING AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT LATER
TONIGHT.

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WITH FEW POCKETS OF IFR FOG ESPECIALLY
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE EXPECT
FEW-SCATTERED CU SATURDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 031726
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
125 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY TONIGHT...AND
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY
NIGHT...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
IT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AND KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...BUT THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND POPS MAY HAVE TO BE INSERTED WITH FUTURE
UPDATES OVER THOSE COUNTIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE SINCE PATTERN WILL BE THE
SAME AS YESTERDAY...AND UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WERE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES FARTHER
EAST...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER
THAT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE BENIGN PATTERN...SO WENT
WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

GFS SHOWS MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FORCING DYNAMICS AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS DEPICTS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...AS IT BECOMES ELONGATED AND SLOWLY WASHES OUT.
THUS HAVE INCLUDED POPS STARTING ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR PRECIP CHANCES AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FIRST ARRIVES IN THE AREA. SUPERBLEND THEN
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
SUPPORT...CONFIDENCE IN RAIN LATE NEXT WORKWEEK REMAINS LOW.

GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS APPEARS
REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS
OF MVFR OR IFR FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE...VFR REST OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA CAUSING AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT LATER
TONIGHT.

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WITH FEW POCKETS OF IFR FOG ESPECIALLY
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE EXPECT
FEW-SCATTERED CU SATURDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 031726
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
125 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY TONIGHT...AND
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY
NIGHT...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
IT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AND KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...BUT THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND POPS MAY HAVE TO BE INSERTED WITH FUTURE
UPDATES OVER THOSE COUNTIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE SINCE PATTERN WILL BE THE
SAME AS YESTERDAY...AND UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WERE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES FARTHER
EAST...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER
THAT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE BENIGN PATTERN...SO WENT
WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

GFS SHOWS MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FORCING DYNAMICS AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS DEPICTS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...AS IT BECOMES ELONGATED AND SLOWLY WASHES OUT.
THUS HAVE INCLUDED POPS STARTING ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR PRECIP CHANCES AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FIRST ARRIVES IN THE AREA. SUPERBLEND THEN
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
SUPPORT...CONFIDENCE IN RAIN LATE NEXT WORKWEEK REMAINS LOW.

GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS APPEARS
REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS
OF MVFR OR IFR FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE...VFR REST OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA CAUSING AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT LATER
TONIGHT.

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WITH FEW POCKETS OF IFR FOG ESPECIALLY
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE EXPECT
FEW-SCATTERED CU SATURDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 031726
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
125 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY TONIGHT...AND
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY
NIGHT...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
IT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AND KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...BUT THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND POPS MAY HAVE TO BE INSERTED WITH FUTURE
UPDATES OVER THOSE COUNTIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE SINCE PATTERN WILL BE THE
SAME AS YESTERDAY...AND UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WERE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES FARTHER
EAST...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER
THAT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE BENIGN PATTERN...SO WENT
WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

GFS SHOWS MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FORCING DYNAMICS AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS DEPICTS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...AS IT BECOMES ELONGATED AND SLOWLY WASHES OUT.
THUS HAVE INCLUDED POPS STARTING ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR PRECIP CHANCES AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FIRST ARRIVES IN THE AREA. SUPERBLEND THEN
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
SUPPORT...CONFIDENCE IN RAIN LATE NEXT WORKWEEK REMAINS LOW.

GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS APPEARS
REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS
OF MVFR OR IFR FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE...VFR REST OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA CAUSING AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT LATER
TONIGHT.

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WITH FEW POCKETS OF IFR FOG ESPECIALLY
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE EXPECT
FEW-SCATTERED CU SATURDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 031425
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY TONIGHT...AND
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY
NIGHT...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
IT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AND KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...BUT THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND POPS MAY HAVE TO BE INSERTED WITH FUTURE
UPDATES OVER THOSE COUNTIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE SINCE PATTERN WILL BE THE
SAME AS YESTERDAY...AND UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WERE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES FARTHER
EAST...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER
THAT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE BENIGN PATTERN...SO WENT
WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

GFS SHOWS MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FORCING DYNAMICS AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS DEPICTS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...AS IT BECOMES ELONGATED AND SLOWLY WASHES OUT.
THUS HAVE INCLUDED POPS STARTING ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR PRECIP CHANCES AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FIRST ARRIVES IN THE AREA. SUPERBLEND THEN
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
SUPPORT...CONFIDENCE IN RAIN LATE NEXT WORKWEEK REMAINS LOW.

GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS APPEARS
REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TH MORNING HOURS...WITH A RETURN
TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. MVFR CIGS ALONG
WITH WIDELY SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM THIS
MORNING. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS AMID WEAK LIFT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND RECENT LIGHT RAIN MAY RESULT IN SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG AFTER 040800Z...ESPECIALLY AT LAF...BMG AND HUF.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 031425
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY TONIGHT...AND
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY
NIGHT...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
IT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AND KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...BUT THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND POPS MAY HAVE TO BE INSERTED WITH FUTURE
UPDATES OVER THOSE COUNTIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE SINCE PATTERN WILL BE THE
SAME AS YESTERDAY...AND UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WERE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES FARTHER
EAST...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER
THAT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE BENIGN PATTERN...SO WENT
WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

GFS SHOWS MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FORCING DYNAMICS AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS DEPICTS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...AS IT BECOMES ELONGATED AND SLOWLY WASHES OUT.
THUS HAVE INCLUDED POPS STARTING ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR PRECIP CHANCES AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FIRST ARRIVES IN THE AREA. SUPERBLEND THEN
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
SUPPORT...CONFIDENCE IN RAIN LATE NEXT WORKWEEK REMAINS LOW.

GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS APPEARS
REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TH MORNING HOURS...WITH A RETURN
TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. MVFR CIGS ALONG
WITH WIDELY SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM THIS
MORNING. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS AMID WEAK LIFT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND RECENT LIGHT RAIN MAY RESULT IN SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG AFTER 040800Z...ESPECIALLY AT LAF...BMG AND HUF.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 031015
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
615 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY TONIGHT...AND
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY
NIGHT...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
IT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AND KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...BUT THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND POPS MAY HAVE TO BE INSERTED WITH FUTURE
UPDATES OVER THOSE COUNTIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE SINCE PATTERN WILL BE THE
SAME AS YESTERDAY...AND UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WERE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES FARTHER
EAST...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER
THAT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE BENIGN PATTERN...SO WENT
WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

GFS SHOWS MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FORCING DYNAMICS AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS DEPICTS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...AS IT BECOMES ELONGATED AND SLOWLY WASHES OUT.
THUS HAVE INCLUDED POPS STARTING ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR PRECIP CHANCES AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FIRST ARRIVES IN THE AREA. SUPERBLEND THEN
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
SUPPORT...CONFIDENCE IN RAIN LATE NEXT WORKWEEK REMAINS LOW.

GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS APPEARS REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031200Z IND TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 614 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TH MORNING HOURS...WITH A RETURN
TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. MVFR CIGS ALONG
WITH WIDELY SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM THIS
MORNING. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS AMID WEAK LIFT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND RECENT LIGHT RAIN MAY RESULT IN SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG AFTER 040800Z...ESPECIALLY AT LAF...BMG AND HUF.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 031015
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
615 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY TONIGHT...AND
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY
NIGHT...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
IT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AND KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...BUT THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND POPS MAY HAVE TO BE INSERTED WITH FUTURE
UPDATES OVER THOSE COUNTIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE SINCE PATTERN WILL BE THE
SAME AS YESTERDAY...AND UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WERE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES FARTHER
EAST...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER
THAT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE BENIGN PATTERN...SO WENT
WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

GFS SHOWS MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FORCING DYNAMICS AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS DEPICTS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...AS IT BECOMES ELONGATED AND SLOWLY WASHES OUT.
THUS HAVE INCLUDED POPS STARTING ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR PRECIP CHANCES AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FIRST ARRIVES IN THE AREA. SUPERBLEND THEN
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
SUPPORT...CONFIDENCE IN RAIN LATE NEXT WORKWEEK REMAINS LOW.

GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS APPEARS REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031200Z IND TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 614 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TH MORNING HOURS...WITH A RETURN
TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. MVFR CIGS ALONG
WITH WIDELY SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM THIS
MORNING. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS AMID WEAK LIFT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND RECENT LIGHT RAIN MAY RESULT IN SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG AFTER 040800Z...ESPECIALLY AT LAF...BMG AND HUF.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 030831
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
431 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY TONIGHT...AND
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY
NIGHT...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
IT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AND KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...BUT THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND POPS MAY HAVE TO BE INSERTED WITH FUTURE
UPDATES OVER THOSE COUNTIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE SINCE PATTERN WILL BE THE
SAME AS YESTERDAY...AND UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WERE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES FARTHER
EAST...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER
THAT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE BENIGN PATTERN...SO WENT
WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

GFS SHOWS MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FORCING DYNAMICS AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS DEPICTS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...AS IT BECOMES ELONGATED AND SLOWLY WASHES OUT.
THUS HAVE INCLUDED POPS STARTING ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR PRECIP CHANCES AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FIRST ARRIVES IN THE AREA. SUPERBLEND THEN
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
SUPPORT...CONFIDENCE IN RAIN LATE NEXT WORKWEEK REMAINS LOW.

GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS APPEARS REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA HAS RESULTED IN
SOME SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS AT IND AND BMG. AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS SHOWS LOWER LEVELS REMAINING MOIST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THIS FEATURE PASSES...HAVE UPDATED TO MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. LAF WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.

EXPECT A SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF CONDITIONS TO LAST EVENING WITH
CLOUD DECKS BUILDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT IFR AT BMG BUT WILL ONLY HINT FOR NOW WITH A SCT008 DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY.

AMPLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE SUBSTANTIAL VISIBILITY ISSUES
IN THE FORM OF FOG.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A THREAT MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES AN EXPLICIT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 030831
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
431 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY TONIGHT...AND
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY
NIGHT...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
IT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AND KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...BUT THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND POPS MAY HAVE TO BE INSERTED WITH FUTURE
UPDATES OVER THOSE COUNTIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE SINCE PATTERN WILL BE THE
SAME AS YESTERDAY...AND UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WERE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES FARTHER
EAST...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER
THAT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE BENIGN PATTERN...SO WENT
WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

GFS SHOWS MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FORCING DYNAMICS AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS DEPICTS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...AS IT BECOMES ELONGATED AND SLOWLY WASHES OUT.
THUS HAVE INCLUDED POPS STARTING ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR PRECIP CHANCES AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FIRST ARRIVES IN THE AREA. SUPERBLEND THEN
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
SUPPORT...CONFIDENCE IN RAIN LATE NEXT WORKWEEK REMAINS LOW.

GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS APPEARS REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA HAS RESULTED IN
SOME SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS AT IND AND BMG. AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS SHOWS LOWER LEVELS REMAINING MOIST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THIS FEATURE PASSES...HAVE UPDATED TO MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. LAF WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.

EXPECT A SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF CONDITIONS TO LAST EVENING WITH
CLOUD DECKS BUILDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT IFR AT BMG BUT WILL ONLY HINT FOR NOW WITH A SCT008 DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY.

AMPLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE SUBSTANTIAL VISIBILITY ISSUES
IN THE FORM OF FOG.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A THREAT MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES AN EXPLICIT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 030746
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
346 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY TONIGHT...AND
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY
NIGHT...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
IT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AND KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALL NEXT WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...BUT THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND POPS MAY HAVE TO BE INSERTED WITH FUTURE
UPDATES OVER THOSE COUNTIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE SINCE PATTERN WILL BE THE
SAME AS YESTERDAY...AND UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WERE REACHED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES FARTHER
EAST...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER
THAT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE BENIGN PATTERN...SO WENT
WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

GFS SHOWS MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FORCING DYNAMICS AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS DEPICTS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...AS IT BECOMES ELONGATED AND SLOWLY WASHES OUT.
THUS HAVE INCLUDED POPS STARTING ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR PRECIP CHANCES AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FIRST ARRIVES IN THE AREA. SUPERBLEND THEN
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
SUPPORT...CONFIDENCE IN RAIN LATE NEXT WORKWEEK REMAINS LOW.

GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS APPEARS REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. LAF WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.

EXPECT A SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF CONDITIONS TO LAST EVENING WITH
CLOUD DECKS BUILDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT IFR AT BMG BUT WILL ONLY HINT FOR NOW WITH A SCT008 DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY.

AMPLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE SUBSTANTIAL VISIBILITY ISSUES
IN THE FORM OF FOG.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A THREAT MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES AN EXPLICIT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 030746
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
346 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY TONIGHT...AND
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY
NIGHT...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
IT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AND KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALL NEXT WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...BUT THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND POPS MAY HAVE TO BE INSERTED WITH FUTURE
UPDATES OVER THOSE COUNTIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE SINCE PATTERN WILL BE THE
SAME AS YESTERDAY...AND UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WERE REACHED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES FARTHER
EAST...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER
THAT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE BENIGN PATTERN...SO WENT
WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

GFS SHOWS MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FORCING DYNAMICS AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS DEPICTS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...AS IT BECOMES ELONGATED AND SLOWLY WASHES OUT.
THUS HAVE INCLUDED POPS STARTING ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR PRECIP CHANCES AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FIRST ARRIVES IN THE AREA. SUPERBLEND THEN
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
SUPPORT...CONFIDENCE IN RAIN LATE NEXT WORKWEEK REMAINS LOW.

GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS APPEARS REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. LAF WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.

EXPECT A SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF CONDITIONS TO LAST EVENING WITH
CLOUD DECKS BUILDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT IFR AT BMG BUT WILL ONLY HINT FOR NOW WITH A SCT008 DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY.

AMPLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE SUBSTANTIAL VISIBILITY ISSUES
IN THE FORM OF FOG.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A THREAT MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES AN EXPLICIT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 030631
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
231 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT ONLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS AFTER FRIDAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. NEXT
MONDAY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF THE EVENING...GENERALLY RUNNING NOW FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY W/SW
INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POPPING UP AND DOWN
OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA OTHERWISE DRY AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE REGION THIS EVENING. 02Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE
RIPPLES ALONG IT THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BROAD FORCING
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL EXPAND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WHICH MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE PRECIP
COVERAGE A BIT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...IT IS HARD TO JUSTIFY
MUCH MORE THAN JUST LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. HELD
ON TO A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH WEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. BUMPED
LOWS UP A DEGREE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POPS AS NEAR STATIONARY
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WILL EVENTUALLY DROP
TO AROUND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
FOURTH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
WITH DEEP MEAN LAYER RH PROGS SHOWING VERY NICE DRYING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. SO...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
DRY EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WELL SOUTH
OF INDIANAPOLIS DURING THE DAY ON THE FOURTH. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHOWER CHANCES
SOUTH AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL. THE 12Z NAM MOS WAS AN OUTLIER IN THIS
REGARDING WITH LIKELY POPS AS FAR NORTH AS LAFAYETTE FOR FRIDAY. THE
OTHER MODELS AND 12Z GFS MOS AND ENSEMBLE MOS ALL OPPOSE THE 12Z NAM
MOS AND APPEAR MORE REALISTIC BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS COMPARED
TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

12Z MOS BLEND SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

GFS SHOWS MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FORCING DYNAMICS AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS DEPICTS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...AS IT BECOMES ELONGATED AND SLOWLY WASHES OUT.
THUS HAVE INCLUDED POPS STARTING ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR PRECIP CHANCES AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FIRST ARRIVES IN THE AREA. SUPERBLEND THEN
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
SUPPORT...CONFIDENCE IN RAIN LATE NEXT WORKWEEK REMAINS LOW.

GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS APPEARS REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. LAF WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.

EXPECT A SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF CONDITIONS TO LAST EVENING WITH
CLOUD DECKS BUILDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT IFR AT BMG BUT WILL ONLY HINT FOR NOW WITH A SCT008 DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY.

AMPLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE SUBSTANTIAL VISIBILITY ISSUES
IN THE FORM OF FOG.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A THREAT MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES AN EXPLICIT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 030631
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
231 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT ONLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS AFTER FRIDAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. NEXT
MONDAY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF THE EVENING...GENERALLY RUNNING NOW FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY W/SW
INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POPPING UP AND DOWN
OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA OTHERWISE DRY AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE REGION THIS EVENING. 02Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE
RIPPLES ALONG IT THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BROAD FORCING
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL EXPAND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WHICH MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE PRECIP
COVERAGE A BIT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...IT IS HARD TO JUSTIFY
MUCH MORE THAN JUST LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. HELD
ON TO A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH WEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. BUMPED
LOWS UP A DEGREE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POPS AS NEAR STATIONARY
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WILL EVENTUALLY DROP
TO AROUND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
FOURTH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
WITH DEEP MEAN LAYER RH PROGS SHOWING VERY NICE DRYING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. SO...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
DRY EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WELL SOUTH
OF INDIANAPOLIS DURING THE DAY ON THE FOURTH. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHOWER CHANCES
SOUTH AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL. THE 12Z NAM MOS WAS AN OUTLIER IN THIS
REGARDING WITH LIKELY POPS AS FAR NORTH AS LAFAYETTE FOR FRIDAY. THE
OTHER MODELS AND 12Z GFS MOS AND ENSEMBLE MOS ALL OPPOSE THE 12Z NAM
MOS AND APPEAR MORE REALISTIC BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS COMPARED
TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

12Z MOS BLEND SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

GFS SHOWS MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FORCING DYNAMICS AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS DEPICTS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...AS IT BECOMES ELONGATED AND SLOWLY WASHES OUT.
THUS HAVE INCLUDED POPS STARTING ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR PRECIP CHANCES AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FIRST ARRIVES IN THE AREA. SUPERBLEND THEN
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
SUPPORT...CONFIDENCE IN RAIN LATE NEXT WORKWEEK REMAINS LOW.

GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS APPEARS REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. LAF WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.

EXPECT A SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF CONDITIONS TO LAST EVENING WITH
CLOUD DECKS BUILDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT IFR AT BMG BUT WILL ONLY HINT FOR NOW WITH A SCT008 DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY.

AMPLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE SUBSTANTIAL VISIBILITY ISSUES
IN THE FORM OF FOG.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A THREAT MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES AN EXPLICIT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 030631
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
231 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT ONLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS AFTER FRIDAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. NEXT
MONDAY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF THE EVENING...GENERALLY RUNNING NOW FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY W/SW
INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POPPING UP AND DOWN
OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA OTHERWISE DRY AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE REGION THIS EVENING. 02Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE
RIPPLES ALONG IT THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BROAD FORCING
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL EXPAND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WHICH MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE PRECIP
COVERAGE A BIT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...IT IS HARD TO JUSTIFY
MUCH MORE THAN JUST LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. HELD
ON TO A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH WEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. BUMPED
LOWS UP A DEGREE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POPS AS NEAR STATIONARY
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WILL EVENTUALLY DROP
TO AROUND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
FOURTH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
WITH DEEP MEAN LAYER RH PROGS SHOWING VERY NICE DRYING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. SO...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
DRY EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WELL SOUTH
OF INDIANAPOLIS DURING THE DAY ON THE FOURTH. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHOWER CHANCES
SOUTH AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL. THE 12Z NAM MOS WAS AN OUTLIER IN THIS
REGARDING WITH LIKELY POPS AS FAR NORTH AS LAFAYETTE FOR FRIDAY. THE
OTHER MODELS AND 12Z GFS MOS AND ENSEMBLE MOS ALL OPPOSE THE 12Z NAM
MOS AND APPEAR MORE REALISTIC BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS COMPARED
TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

12Z MOS BLEND SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

GFS SHOWS MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FORCING DYNAMICS AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS DEPICTS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...AS IT BECOMES ELONGATED AND SLOWLY WASHES OUT.
THUS HAVE INCLUDED POPS STARTING ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR PRECIP CHANCES AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FIRST ARRIVES IN THE AREA. SUPERBLEND THEN
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
SUPPORT...CONFIDENCE IN RAIN LATE NEXT WORKWEEK REMAINS LOW.

GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS APPEARS REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. LAF WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.

EXPECT A SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF CONDITIONS TO LAST EVENING WITH
CLOUD DECKS BUILDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT IFR AT BMG BUT WILL ONLY HINT FOR NOW WITH A SCT008 DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY.

AMPLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE SUBSTANTIAL VISIBILITY ISSUES
IN THE FORM OF FOG.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A THREAT MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES AN EXPLICIT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 030631
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
231 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT ONLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS AFTER FRIDAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. NEXT
MONDAY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF THE EVENING...GENERALLY RUNNING NOW FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY W/SW
INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POPPING UP AND DOWN
OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA OTHERWISE DRY AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE REGION THIS EVENING. 02Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE
RIPPLES ALONG IT THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BROAD FORCING
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL EXPAND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WHICH MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE PRECIP
COVERAGE A BIT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...IT IS HARD TO JUSTIFY
MUCH MORE THAN JUST LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. HELD
ON TO A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH WEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. BUMPED
LOWS UP A DEGREE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POPS AS NEAR STATIONARY
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WILL EVENTUALLY DROP
TO AROUND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
FOURTH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
WITH DEEP MEAN LAYER RH PROGS SHOWING VERY NICE DRYING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. SO...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
DRY EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WELL SOUTH
OF INDIANAPOLIS DURING THE DAY ON THE FOURTH. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHOWER CHANCES
SOUTH AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL. THE 12Z NAM MOS WAS AN OUTLIER IN THIS
REGARDING WITH LIKELY POPS AS FAR NORTH AS LAFAYETTE FOR FRIDAY. THE
OTHER MODELS AND 12Z GFS MOS AND ENSEMBLE MOS ALL OPPOSE THE 12Z NAM
MOS AND APPEAR MORE REALISTIC BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS COMPARED
TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

12Z MOS BLEND SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

GFS SHOWS MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FORCING DYNAMICS AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS DEPICTS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...AS IT BECOMES ELONGATED AND SLOWLY WASHES OUT.
THUS HAVE INCLUDED POPS STARTING ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR PRECIP CHANCES AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FIRST ARRIVES IN THE AREA. SUPERBLEND THEN
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
SUPPORT...CONFIDENCE IN RAIN LATE NEXT WORKWEEK REMAINS LOW.

GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS APPEARS REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. LAF WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.

EXPECT A SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF CONDITIONS TO LAST EVENING WITH
CLOUD DECKS BUILDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT IFR AT BMG BUT WILL ONLY HINT FOR NOW WITH A SCT008 DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY.

AMPLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE SUBSTANTIAL VISIBILITY ISSUES
IN THE FORM OF FOG.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A THREAT MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES AN EXPLICIT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 030428
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT ONLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS AFTER FRIDAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. NEXT
MONDAY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF THE EVENING...GENERALLY RUNNING NOW FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY W/SW
INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POPPING UP AND DOWN
OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA OTHERWISE DRY AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE REGION THIS EVENING. 02Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE
RIPPLES ALONG IT THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BROAD FORCING
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL EXPAND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WHICH MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE PRECIP
COVERAGE A BIT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...IT IS HARD TO JUSTIFY
MUCH MORE THAN JUST LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. HELD
ON TO A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH WEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. BUMPED
LOWS UP A DEGREE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POPS AS NEAR STATIONARY
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WILL EVENTUALLY DROP
TO AROUND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
FOURTH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
WITH DEEP MEAN LAYER RH PROGS SHOWING VERY NICE DRYING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. SO...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
DRY EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WELL SOUTH
OF INDIANAPOLIS DURING THE DAY ON THE FOURTH. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHOWER CHANCES
SOUTH AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL. THE 12Z NAM MOS WAS AN OUTLIER IN THIS
REGARDING WITH LIKELY POPS AS FAR NORTH AS LAFAYETTE FOR FRIDAY. THE
OTHER MODELS AND 12Z GFS MOS AND ENSEMBLE MOS ALL OPPOSE THE 12Z NAM
MOS AND APPEAR MORE REALISTIC BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS COMPARED
TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

12Z MOS BLEND SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONG TERM WILL START OUR DRY AND THEN QUITE WET BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND NO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY DAY 7. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE ON TO THE
EAST AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES OUR WAY.  THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND THEY HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS LATE MONDAY AND THEN CHANCE POPS OR
BETTER ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY
MOVE ON THROUGH AND MODELS MOVE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...WENT
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND OF TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. LAF WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.

EXPECT A SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF CONDITIONS TO LAST EVENING WITH
CLOUD DECKS BUILDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT IFR AT BMG BUT WILL ONLY HINT FOR NOW WITH A SCT008 DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY.

AMPLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE SUBSTANTIAL VISIBILITY ISSUES
IN THE FORM OF FOG.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A THREAT MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES AN EXPLICIT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NIELD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 030428
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT ONLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS AFTER FRIDAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. NEXT
MONDAY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF THE EVENING...GENERALLY RUNNING NOW FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY W/SW
INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POPPING UP AND DOWN
OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA OTHERWISE DRY AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE REGION THIS EVENING. 02Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE
RIPPLES ALONG IT THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BROAD FORCING
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL EXPAND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WHICH MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE PRECIP
COVERAGE A BIT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...IT IS HARD TO JUSTIFY
MUCH MORE THAN JUST LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. HELD
ON TO A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH WEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. BUMPED
LOWS UP A DEGREE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POPS AS NEAR STATIONARY
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WILL EVENTUALLY DROP
TO AROUND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
FOURTH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
WITH DEEP MEAN LAYER RH PROGS SHOWING VERY NICE DRYING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. SO...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
DRY EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WELL SOUTH
OF INDIANAPOLIS DURING THE DAY ON THE FOURTH. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHOWER CHANCES
SOUTH AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL. THE 12Z NAM MOS WAS AN OUTLIER IN THIS
REGARDING WITH LIKELY POPS AS FAR NORTH AS LAFAYETTE FOR FRIDAY. THE
OTHER MODELS AND 12Z GFS MOS AND ENSEMBLE MOS ALL OPPOSE THE 12Z NAM
MOS AND APPEAR MORE REALISTIC BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS COMPARED
TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

12Z MOS BLEND SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONG TERM WILL START OUR DRY AND THEN QUITE WET BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND NO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY DAY 7. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE ON TO THE
EAST AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES OUR WAY.  THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND THEY HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS LATE MONDAY AND THEN CHANCE POPS OR
BETTER ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY
MOVE ON THROUGH AND MODELS MOVE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...WENT
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND OF TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. LAF WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.

EXPECT A SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF CONDITIONS TO LAST EVENING WITH
CLOUD DECKS BUILDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT IFR AT BMG BUT WILL ONLY HINT FOR NOW WITH A SCT008 DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY.

AMPLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE SUBSTANTIAL VISIBILITY ISSUES
IN THE FORM OF FOG.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A THREAT MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES AN EXPLICIT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NIELD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 030428
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT ONLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS AFTER FRIDAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. NEXT
MONDAY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF THE EVENING...GENERALLY RUNNING NOW FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY W/SW
INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POPPING UP AND DOWN
OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA OTHERWISE DRY AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE REGION THIS EVENING. 02Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE
RIPPLES ALONG IT THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BROAD FORCING
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL EXPAND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WHICH MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE PRECIP
COVERAGE A BIT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...IT IS HARD TO JUSTIFY
MUCH MORE THAN JUST LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. HELD
ON TO A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH WEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. BUMPED
LOWS UP A DEGREE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POPS AS NEAR STATIONARY
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WILL EVENTUALLY DROP
TO AROUND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
FOURTH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
WITH DEEP MEAN LAYER RH PROGS SHOWING VERY NICE DRYING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. SO...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
DRY EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WELL SOUTH
OF INDIANAPOLIS DURING THE DAY ON THE FOURTH. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHOWER CHANCES
SOUTH AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL. THE 12Z NAM MOS WAS AN OUTLIER IN THIS
REGARDING WITH LIKELY POPS AS FAR NORTH AS LAFAYETTE FOR FRIDAY. THE
OTHER MODELS AND 12Z GFS MOS AND ENSEMBLE MOS ALL OPPOSE THE 12Z NAM
MOS AND APPEAR MORE REALISTIC BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS COMPARED
TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

12Z MOS BLEND SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONG TERM WILL START OUR DRY AND THEN QUITE WET BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND NO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY DAY 7. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE ON TO THE
EAST AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES OUR WAY.  THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND THEY HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS LATE MONDAY AND THEN CHANCE POPS OR
BETTER ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY
MOVE ON THROUGH AND MODELS MOVE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...WENT
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND OF TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. LAF WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.

EXPECT A SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF CONDITIONS TO LAST EVENING WITH
CLOUD DECKS BUILDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT IFR AT BMG BUT WILL ONLY HINT FOR NOW WITH A SCT008 DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY.

AMPLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE SUBSTANTIAL VISIBILITY ISSUES
IN THE FORM OF FOG.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A THREAT MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES AN EXPLICIT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NIELD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 030428
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT ONLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS AFTER FRIDAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. NEXT
MONDAY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF THE EVENING...GENERALLY RUNNING NOW FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY W/SW
INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POPPING UP AND DOWN
OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA OTHERWISE DRY AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE REGION THIS EVENING. 02Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE
RIPPLES ALONG IT THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BROAD FORCING
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL EXPAND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WHICH MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE PRECIP
COVERAGE A BIT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...IT IS HARD TO JUSTIFY
MUCH MORE THAN JUST LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. HELD
ON TO A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH WEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. BUMPED
LOWS UP A DEGREE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POPS AS NEAR STATIONARY
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WILL EVENTUALLY DROP
TO AROUND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
FOURTH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
WITH DEEP MEAN LAYER RH PROGS SHOWING VERY NICE DRYING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. SO...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
DRY EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WELL SOUTH
OF INDIANAPOLIS DURING THE DAY ON THE FOURTH. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHOWER CHANCES
SOUTH AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL. THE 12Z NAM MOS WAS AN OUTLIER IN THIS
REGARDING WITH LIKELY POPS AS FAR NORTH AS LAFAYETTE FOR FRIDAY. THE
OTHER MODELS AND 12Z GFS MOS AND ENSEMBLE MOS ALL OPPOSE THE 12Z NAM
MOS AND APPEAR MORE REALISTIC BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS COMPARED
TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

12Z MOS BLEND SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONG TERM WILL START OUR DRY AND THEN QUITE WET BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND NO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY DAY 7. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE ON TO THE
EAST AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES OUR WAY.  THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND THEY HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS LATE MONDAY AND THEN CHANCE POPS OR
BETTER ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY
MOVE ON THROUGH AND MODELS MOVE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...WENT
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND OF TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. LAF WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.

EXPECT A SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF CONDITIONS TO LAST EVENING WITH
CLOUD DECKS BUILDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT IFR AT BMG BUT WILL ONLY HINT FOR NOW WITH A SCT008 DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY.

AMPLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE SUBSTANTIAL VISIBILITY ISSUES
IN THE FORM OF FOG.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A THREAT MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES AN EXPLICIT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NIELD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 030208
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1008 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT ONLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS AFTER FRIDAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. NEXT
MONDAY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF THE EVENING...GENERALLY RUNNING NOW FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY W/SW
INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POPPING UP AND DOWN
OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA OTHERWISE DRY AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE REGION THIS EVENING. 02Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE
RIPPLES ALONG IT THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BROAD FORCING
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL EXPAND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WHICH MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE PRECIP
COVERAGE A BIT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...IT IS HARD TO JUSTIFY
MUCH MORE THAN JUST LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. HELD
ON TO A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH WEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. BUMPED
LOWS UP A DEGREE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POPS AS NEAR STATIONARY
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WILL EVENTUALLY DROP
TO AROUND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
FOURTH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
WITH DEEP MEAN LAYER RH PROGS SHOWING VERY NICE DRYING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. SO...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
DRY EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WELL SOUTH
OF INDIANAPOLIS DURING THE DAY ON THE FOURTH. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHOWER CHANCES
SOUTH AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL. THE 12Z NAM MOS WAS AN OUTLIER IN THIS
REGARDING WITH LIKELY POPS AS FAR NORTH AS LAFAYETTE FOR FRIDAY. THE
OTHER MODELS AND 12Z GFS MOS AND ENSEMBLE MOS ALL OPPOSE THE 12Z NAM
MOS AND APPEAR MORE REALISTIC BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS COMPARED
TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

12Z MOS BLEND SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONG TERM WILL START OUR DRY AND THEN QUITE WET BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND NO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY DAY 7. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE ON TO THE
EAST AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES OUR WAY.  THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND THEY HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS LATE MONDAY AND THEN CHANCE POPS OR
BETTER ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY
MOVE ON THROUGH AND MODELS MOVE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...WENT
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND OF TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. LAF WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.

EXPECT A SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF CONDITIONS TO LAST EVENING WITH
CLOUD DECKS BUILDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT IFR AT BMG BUT WILL ONLY HINT FOR NOW WITH A SCT008 DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY.

AMPLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE SUBSTANTIAL VISIBILITY ISSUES
IN THE FORM OF FOG.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A THREAT MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES AN EXPLICIT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 030208
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1008 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT ONLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS AFTER FRIDAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. NEXT
MONDAY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF THE EVENING...GENERALLY RUNNING NOW FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY W/SW
INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POPPING UP AND DOWN
OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA OTHERWISE DRY AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE REGION THIS EVENING. 02Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE
RIPPLES ALONG IT THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BROAD FORCING
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL EXPAND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WHICH MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE PRECIP
COVERAGE A BIT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...IT IS HARD TO JUSTIFY
MUCH MORE THAN JUST LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. HELD
ON TO A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH WEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. BUMPED
LOWS UP A DEGREE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POPS AS NEAR STATIONARY
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WILL EVENTUALLY DROP
TO AROUND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
FOURTH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
WITH DEEP MEAN LAYER RH PROGS SHOWING VERY NICE DRYING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. SO...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
DRY EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WELL SOUTH
OF INDIANAPOLIS DURING THE DAY ON THE FOURTH. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHOWER CHANCES
SOUTH AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL. THE 12Z NAM MOS WAS AN OUTLIER IN THIS
REGARDING WITH LIKELY POPS AS FAR NORTH AS LAFAYETTE FOR FRIDAY. THE
OTHER MODELS AND 12Z GFS MOS AND ENSEMBLE MOS ALL OPPOSE THE 12Z NAM
MOS AND APPEAR MORE REALISTIC BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS COMPARED
TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

12Z MOS BLEND SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONG TERM WILL START OUR DRY AND THEN QUITE WET BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND NO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY DAY 7. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE ON TO THE
EAST AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES OUR WAY.  THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND THEY HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS LATE MONDAY AND THEN CHANCE POPS OR
BETTER ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY
MOVE ON THROUGH AND MODELS MOVE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...WENT
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND OF TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. LAF WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.

EXPECT A SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF CONDITIONS TO LAST EVENING WITH
CLOUD DECKS BUILDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT IFR AT BMG BUT WILL ONLY HINT FOR NOW WITH A SCT008 DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY.

AMPLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE SUBSTANTIAL VISIBILITY ISSUES
IN THE FORM OF FOG.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A THREAT MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES AN EXPLICIT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 022328
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
728 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT ONLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS AFTER FRIDAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. NEXT
MONDAY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE
NEAR STATIONARY FRONT...ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. MODELS
ALSO AGREE THAT UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE PER MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS
SHOULD KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...CLOSER TO THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE CONVECTION AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. GOOD CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD THERE TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT
CHANCE NORTH.

SHOULD SEE A DECENT NORTH AND SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH...PER THE 12Z MOS...LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POPS AS NEAR STATIONARY
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WILL EVENTUALLY DROP
TO AROUND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
FOURTH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
WITH DEEP MEAN LAYER RH PROGS SHOWING VERY NICE DRYING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. SO...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
DRY EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WELL SOUTH
OF INDIANAPOLIS DURING THE DAY ON THE FOURTH. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHOWER CHANCES
SOUTH AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL. THE 12Z NAM MOS WAS AN OUTLIER IN THIS
REGARDING WITH LIKELY POPS AS FAR NORTH AS LAFAYETTE FOR FRIDAY. THE
OTHER MODELS AND 12Z GFS MOS AND ENSEMBLE MOS ALL OPPOSE THE 12Z NAM
MOS AND APPEAR MORE REALISTIC BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS COMPARED
TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

12Z MOS BLEND SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONG TERM WILL START OUR DRY AND THEN QUITE WET BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND NO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY DAY 7. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE ON TO THE
EAST AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES OUR WAY.  THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND THEY HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS LATE MONDAY AND THEN CHANCE POPS OR
BETTER ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY
MOVE ON THROUGH AND MODELS MOVE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...WENT
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND OF TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. LAF WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.

EXPECT A SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF CONDITIONS TO LAST EVENING WITH
CLOUD DECKS BUILDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT IFR AT BMG BUT WILL ONLY HINT FOR NOW WITH A SCT008 DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY.

AMPLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE SUBSTANTIAL VISIBILITY ISSUES
IN THE FORM OF FOG.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A THREAT MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES AN EXPLICIT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 022328
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
728 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT ONLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS AFTER FRIDAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. NEXT
MONDAY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE
NEAR STATIONARY FRONT...ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. MODELS
ALSO AGREE THAT UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE PER MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS
SHOULD KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...CLOSER TO THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE CONVECTION AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. GOOD CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD THERE TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT
CHANCE NORTH.

SHOULD SEE A DECENT NORTH AND SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH...PER THE 12Z MOS...LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POPS AS NEAR STATIONARY
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WILL EVENTUALLY DROP
TO AROUND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
FOURTH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
WITH DEEP MEAN LAYER RH PROGS SHOWING VERY NICE DRYING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. SO...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
DRY EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WELL SOUTH
OF INDIANAPOLIS DURING THE DAY ON THE FOURTH. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHOWER CHANCES
SOUTH AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL. THE 12Z NAM MOS WAS AN OUTLIER IN THIS
REGARDING WITH LIKELY POPS AS FAR NORTH AS LAFAYETTE FOR FRIDAY. THE
OTHER MODELS AND 12Z GFS MOS AND ENSEMBLE MOS ALL OPPOSE THE 12Z NAM
MOS AND APPEAR MORE REALISTIC BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS COMPARED
TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

12Z MOS BLEND SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONG TERM WILL START OUR DRY AND THEN QUITE WET BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND NO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY DAY 7. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE ON TO THE
EAST AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES OUR WAY.  THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND THEY HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS LATE MONDAY AND THEN CHANCE POPS OR
BETTER ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY
MOVE ON THROUGH AND MODELS MOVE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...WENT
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND OF TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. LAF WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.

EXPECT A SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF CONDITIONS TO LAST EVENING WITH
CLOUD DECKS BUILDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT IFR AT BMG BUT WILL ONLY HINT FOR NOW WITH A SCT008 DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY.

AMPLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE SUBSTANTIAL VISIBILITY ISSUES
IN THE FORM OF FOG.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A THREAT MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES AN EXPLICIT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 022328
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
728 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT ONLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS AFTER FRIDAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. NEXT
MONDAY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE
NEAR STATIONARY FRONT...ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. MODELS
ALSO AGREE THAT UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE PER MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS
SHOULD KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...CLOSER TO THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE CONVECTION AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. GOOD CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD THERE TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT
CHANCE NORTH.

SHOULD SEE A DECENT NORTH AND SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH...PER THE 12Z MOS...LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POPS AS NEAR STATIONARY
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WILL EVENTUALLY DROP
TO AROUND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
FOURTH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
WITH DEEP MEAN LAYER RH PROGS SHOWING VERY NICE DRYING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. SO...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
DRY EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WELL SOUTH
OF INDIANAPOLIS DURING THE DAY ON THE FOURTH. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHOWER CHANCES
SOUTH AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL. THE 12Z NAM MOS WAS AN OUTLIER IN THIS
REGARDING WITH LIKELY POPS AS FAR NORTH AS LAFAYETTE FOR FRIDAY. THE
OTHER MODELS AND 12Z GFS MOS AND ENSEMBLE MOS ALL OPPOSE THE 12Z NAM
MOS AND APPEAR MORE REALISTIC BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS COMPARED
TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

12Z MOS BLEND SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONG TERM WILL START OUR DRY AND THEN QUITE WET BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND NO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY DAY 7. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE ON TO THE
EAST AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES OUR WAY.  THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND THEY HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS LATE MONDAY AND THEN CHANCE POPS OR
BETTER ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY
MOVE ON THROUGH AND MODELS MOVE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...WENT
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND OF TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. LAF WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.

EXPECT A SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF CONDITIONS TO LAST EVENING WITH
CLOUD DECKS BUILDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT IFR AT BMG BUT WILL ONLY HINT FOR NOW WITH A SCT008 DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY.

AMPLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE SUBSTANTIAL VISIBILITY ISSUES
IN THE FORM OF FOG.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A THREAT MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES AN EXPLICIT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 022328
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
728 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT ONLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS AFTER FRIDAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. NEXT
MONDAY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE
NEAR STATIONARY FRONT...ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. MODELS
ALSO AGREE THAT UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE PER MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS
SHOULD KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...CLOSER TO THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE CONVECTION AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. GOOD CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD THERE TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT
CHANCE NORTH.

SHOULD SEE A DECENT NORTH AND SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH...PER THE 12Z MOS...LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POPS AS NEAR STATIONARY
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WILL EVENTUALLY DROP
TO AROUND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
FOURTH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
WITH DEEP MEAN LAYER RH PROGS SHOWING VERY NICE DRYING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. SO...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
DRY EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WELL SOUTH
OF INDIANAPOLIS DURING THE DAY ON THE FOURTH. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHOWER CHANCES
SOUTH AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL. THE 12Z NAM MOS WAS AN OUTLIER IN THIS
REGARDING WITH LIKELY POPS AS FAR NORTH AS LAFAYETTE FOR FRIDAY. THE
OTHER MODELS AND 12Z GFS MOS AND ENSEMBLE MOS ALL OPPOSE THE 12Z NAM
MOS AND APPEAR MORE REALISTIC BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS COMPARED
TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

12Z MOS BLEND SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONG TERM WILL START OUR DRY AND THEN QUITE WET BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND NO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY DAY 7. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE ON TO THE
EAST AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES OUR WAY.  THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND THEY HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS LATE MONDAY AND THEN CHANCE POPS OR
BETTER ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY
MOVE ON THROUGH AND MODELS MOVE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...WENT
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND OF TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. LAF WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.

EXPECT A SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF CONDITIONS TO LAST EVENING WITH
CLOUD DECKS BUILDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT IFR AT BMG BUT WILL ONLY HINT FOR NOW WITH A SCT008 DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY.

AMPLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE SUBSTANTIAL VISIBILITY ISSUES
IN THE FORM OF FOG.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A THREAT MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES AN EXPLICIT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 021925
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
324 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT ONLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS AFTER FRIDAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. NEXT
MONDAY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE
NEAR STATIONARY FRONT...ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. MODELS
ALSO AGREE THAT UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE PER MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS
SHOULD KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...CLOSER TO THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE CONVECTION AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. GOOD CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD THERE TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT
CHANCE NORTH.

SHOULD SEE A DECENT NORTH AND SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH...PER THE 12Z MOS...LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POPS AS NEAR STATIONARY
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WILL EVENTUALLY DROP
TO AROUND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
FOURTH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
WITH DEEP MEAN LAYER RH PROGS SHOWING VERY NICE DRYING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. SO...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
DRY EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WELL SOUTH
OF INDIANAPOLIS DURING THE DAY ON THE FOURTH. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHOWER CHANCES
SOUTH AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL. THE 12Z NAM MOS WAS AN OUTLIER IN THIS
REGARDING WITH LIKELY POPS AS FAR NORTH AS LAFAYETTE FOR FRIDAY. THE
OTHER MODELS AND 12Z GFS MOS AND ENSEMBLE MOS ALL OPPOSE THE 12Z NAM
MOS AND APPEAR MORE REALISTIC BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS COMPARED
TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

12Z MOS BLEND SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONG TERM WILL START OUR DRY AND THEN QUITE WET BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND NO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY DAY 7. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE ON TO THE
EAST AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES OUR WAY.  THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND THEY HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS LATE MONDAY AND THEN CHANCE POPS OR
BETTER ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY
MOVE ON THROUGH AND MODELS MOVE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...WENT
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND OF TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MOSTLY VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDED EAST TO WEST ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
INDIANA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL
MOVE TO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT A LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.  BUT SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WILL
MENTION VCSH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF KIND.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTH
AND WILL MENTION A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT TO MIDDAY
FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 8 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 021925
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
324 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT ONLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS AFTER FRIDAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. NEXT
MONDAY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE
NEAR STATIONARY FRONT...ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. MODELS
ALSO AGREE THAT UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE PER MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS
SHOULD KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...CLOSER TO THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE CONVECTION AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. GOOD CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD THERE TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT
CHANCE NORTH.

SHOULD SEE A DECENT NORTH AND SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH...PER THE 12Z MOS...LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POPS AS NEAR STATIONARY
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WILL EVENTUALLY DROP
TO AROUND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
FOURTH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
WITH DEEP MEAN LAYER RH PROGS SHOWING VERY NICE DRYING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. SO...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
DRY EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WELL SOUTH
OF INDIANAPOLIS DURING THE DAY ON THE FOURTH. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHOWER CHANCES
SOUTH AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL. THE 12Z NAM MOS WAS AN OUTLIER IN THIS
REGARDING WITH LIKELY POPS AS FAR NORTH AS LAFAYETTE FOR FRIDAY. THE
OTHER MODELS AND 12Z GFS MOS AND ENSEMBLE MOS ALL OPPOSE THE 12Z NAM
MOS AND APPEAR MORE REALISTIC BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS COMPARED
TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

12Z MOS BLEND SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONG TERM WILL START OUR DRY AND THEN QUITE WET BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND NO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY DAY 7. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE ON TO THE
EAST AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES OUR WAY.  THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND THEY HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS LATE MONDAY AND THEN CHANCE POPS OR
BETTER ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY
MOVE ON THROUGH AND MODELS MOVE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...WENT
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND OF TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MOSTLY VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDED EAST TO WEST ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
INDIANA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL
MOVE TO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT A LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.  BUT SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WILL
MENTION VCSH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF KIND.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTH
AND WILL MENTION A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT TO MIDDAY
FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 8 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 021850
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
250 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE DRIVEN BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOWER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
SHIFTS AT TIMES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXTEND FARTHER
NORTH. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY...BUT
SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ANY SHIFT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.

ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM TODAY SHOULD STAY UNDER SEVERE LEVELS. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT EXTEND ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO TENNESSEE VALLEY.

STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S HIGHS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHIFTS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...POPS WILL DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW EVENING. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DESPITE SOME WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL BUT A WEAK WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
A MODEL BLEND HANDLED TEMPS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONG TERM WILL START OUR DRY AND THEN QUITE WET BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND NO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY DAY 7. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE ON TO THE
EAST AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES OUR WAY.  THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND THEY HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS LATE MONDAY AND THEN CHANCE POPS OR
BETTER ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY
MOVE ON THROUGH AND MODELS MOVE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...WENT
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND OF TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MOSTLY VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDED EAST TO WEST ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
INDIANA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL
MOVE TO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT A LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.  BUT SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WILL
MENTION VCSH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF KIND.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTH
AND WILL MENTION A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT TO MIDDAY
FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 8 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 021850
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
250 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE DRIVEN BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOWER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
SHIFTS AT TIMES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXTEND FARTHER
NORTH. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY...BUT
SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ANY SHIFT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.

ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM TODAY SHOULD STAY UNDER SEVERE LEVELS. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT EXTEND ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO TENNESSEE VALLEY.

STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S HIGHS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHIFTS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...POPS WILL DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW EVENING. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DESPITE SOME WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL BUT A WEAK WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
A MODEL BLEND HANDLED TEMPS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONG TERM WILL START OUR DRY AND THEN QUITE WET BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND NO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY DAY 7. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE ON TO THE
EAST AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES OUR WAY.  THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND THEY HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS LATE MONDAY AND THEN CHANCE POPS OR
BETTER ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY
MOVE ON THROUGH AND MODELS MOVE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...WENT
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND OF TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MOSTLY VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDED EAST TO WEST ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
INDIANA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL
MOVE TO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT A LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.  BUT SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WILL
MENTION VCSH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF KIND.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTH
AND WILL MENTION A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT TO MIDDAY
FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 8 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 021850
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
250 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE DRIVEN BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOWER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
SHIFTS AT TIMES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXTEND FARTHER
NORTH. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY...BUT
SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ANY SHIFT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.

ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM TODAY SHOULD STAY UNDER SEVERE LEVELS. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT EXTEND ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO TENNESSEE VALLEY.

STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S HIGHS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHIFTS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...POPS WILL DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW EVENING. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DESPITE SOME WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL BUT A WEAK WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
A MODEL BLEND HANDLED TEMPS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONG TERM WILL START OUR DRY AND THEN QUITE WET BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND NO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY DAY 7. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE ON TO THE
EAST AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES OUR WAY.  THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND THEY HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS LATE MONDAY AND THEN CHANCE POPS OR
BETTER ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY
MOVE ON THROUGH AND MODELS MOVE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...WENT
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND OF TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MOSTLY VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDED EAST TO WEST ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
INDIANA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL
MOVE TO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT A LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.  BUT SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WILL
MENTION VCSH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF KIND.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTH
AND WILL MENTION A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT TO MIDDAY
FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 8 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 021654
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1255 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE DRIVEN BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOWER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
SHIFTS AT TIMES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXTEND FARTHER
NORTH. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY...BUT
SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ANY SHIFT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.

ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM TODAY SHOULD STAY UNDER SEVERE LEVELS. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT EXTEND ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO TENNESSEE VALLEY.

STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S HIGHS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHIFTS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...POPS WILL DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW EVENING. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DESPITE SOME WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL BUT A WEAK WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
A MODEL BLEND HANDLED TEMPS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONDITIONS WILL EITHER BE DRY OR WITH AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR START OF NEXT WEEK AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A
FORCING MECHANISM OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN
BY TUESDAY THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FEELING A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
MODELS SEEM IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVING AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE
THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER...THOUGH THIS IS STILL 6 DAYS OUT IN THE FORECAST AND TOO
EARLY TO OUTLOOK.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ANOTHER FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA BY MIDWEEK...THIS ONE NOT AS STRONG...AND MOISTURE NOT AS DEEP
AS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SO ONLY WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MOSTLY VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDED EAST TO WEST ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
INDIANA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL
MOVE TO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT A LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.  BUT SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WILL
MENTION VCSH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF KIND.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTH
AND WILL MENTION A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT TO MIDDAY
FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 8 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 021654
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1255 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE DRIVEN BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOWER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
SHIFTS AT TIMES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXTEND FARTHER
NORTH. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY...BUT
SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ANY SHIFT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.

ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM TODAY SHOULD STAY UNDER SEVERE LEVELS. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT EXTEND ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO TENNESSEE VALLEY.

STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S HIGHS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHIFTS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...POPS WILL DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW EVENING. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DESPITE SOME WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL BUT A WEAK WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
A MODEL BLEND HANDLED TEMPS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONDITIONS WILL EITHER BE DRY OR WITH AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR START OF NEXT WEEK AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A
FORCING MECHANISM OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN
BY TUESDAY THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FEELING A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
MODELS SEEM IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVING AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE
THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER...THOUGH THIS IS STILL 6 DAYS OUT IN THE FORECAST AND TOO
EARLY TO OUTLOOK.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ANOTHER FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA BY MIDWEEK...THIS ONE NOT AS STRONG...AND MOISTURE NOT AS DEEP
AS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SO ONLY WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MOSTLY VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDED EAST TO WEST ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
INDIANA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL
MOVE TO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT A LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.  BUT SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WILL
MENTION VCSH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF KIND.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTH
AND WILL MENTION A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT TO MIDDAY
FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 8 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 021654
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1255 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE DRIVEN BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOWER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
SHIFTS AT TIMES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXTEND FARTHER
NORTH. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY...BUT
SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ANY SHIFT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.

ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM TODAY SHOULD STAY UNDER SEVERE LEVELS. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT EXTEND ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO TENNESSEE VALLEY.

STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S HIGHS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHIFTS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...POPS WILL DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW EVENING. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DESPITE SOME WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL BUT A WEAK WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
A MODEL BLEND HANDLED TEMPS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONDITIONS WILL EITHER BE DRY OR WITH AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR START OF NEXT WEEK AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A
FORCING MECHANISM OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN
BY TUESDAY THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FEELING A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
MODELS SEEM IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVING AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE
THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER...THOUGH THIS IS STILL 6 DAYS OUT IN THE FORECAST AND TOO
EARLY TO OUTLOOK.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ANOTHER FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA BY MIDWEEK...THIS ONE NOT AS STRONG...AND MOISTURE NOT AS DEEP
AS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SO ONLY WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MOSTLY VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDED EAST TO WEST ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
INDIANA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL
MOVE TO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT A LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.  BUT SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WILL
MENTION VCSH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF KIND.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTH
AND WILL MENTION A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT TO MIDDAY
FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 8 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 021425
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE DRIVEN BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOWER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
SHIFTS AT TIMES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXTEND FARTHER
NORTH. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY...BUT
SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ANY SHIFT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.

ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM TODAY SHOULD STAY UNDER SEVERE LEVELS. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT EXTEND ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO TENNESSEE VALLEY.

STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S HIGHS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHIFTS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...POPS WILL DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW EVENING. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DESPITE SOME WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL BUT A WEAK WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
A MODEL BLEND HANDLED TEMPS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONDITIONS WILL EITHER BE DRY OR WITH AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR START OF NEXT WEEK AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A
FORCING MECHANISM OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN
BY TUESDAY THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FEELING A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
MODELS SEEM IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVING AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE
THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER...THOUGH THIS IS STILL 6 DAYS OUT IN THE FORECAST AND TOO
EARLY TO OUTLOOK.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ANOTHER FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA BY MIDWEEK...THIS ONE NOT AS STRONG...AND MOISTURE NOT AS DEEP
AS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SO ONLY WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TODAY...ENDING BY THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MOST TERMINALS. SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL MAINLY
IMPACT HUF AND BMG...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ACTIVITY
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS IND. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AROUND 10 KT...AND STAY PRETTY STEADY
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOME MORE ENE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT MAINLY HUF AND BMG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FOR MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 021425
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE DRIVEN BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOWER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
SHIFTS AT TIMES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXTEND FARTHER
NORTH. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY...BUT
SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ANY SHIFT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.

ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM TODAY SHOULD STAY UNDER SEVERE LEVELS. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT EXTEND ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO TENNESSEE VALLEY.

STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S HIGHS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHIFTS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...POPS WILL DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW EVENING. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DESPITE SOME WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL BUT A WEAK WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
A MODEL BLEND HANDLED TEMPS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONDITIONS WILL EITHER BE DRY OR WITH AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR START OF NEXT WEEK AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A
FORCING MECHANISM OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN
BY TUESDAY THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FEELING A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
MODELS SEEM IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVING AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE
THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER...THOUGH THIS IS STILL 6 DAYS OUT IN THE FORECAST AND TOO
EARLY TO OUTLOOK.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ANOTHER FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA BY MIDWEEK...THIS ONE NOT AS STRONG...AND MOISTURE NOT AS DEEP
AS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SO ONLY WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TODAY...ENDING BY THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MOST TERMINALS. SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL MAINLY
IMPACT HUF AND BMG...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ACTIVITY
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS IND. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AROUND 10 KT...AND STAY PRETTY STEADY
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOME MORE ENE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT MAINLY HUF AND BMG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FOR MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 021102
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
702 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE DRIVEN BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOWER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
SHIFTS AT TIMES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXTEND FARTHER
NORTH. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY...BUT
SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ANY SHIFT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.

ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM TODAY SHOULD STAY UNDER SEVERE LEVELS. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT EXTEND ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO TENNESSEE VALLEY.

STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S HIGHS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHIFTS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...POPS WILL DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW EVENING. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DESPITE SOME WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL BUT A WEAK WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
A MODEL BLEND HANDLED TEMPS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONDITIONS WILL EITHER BE DRY OR WITH AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR START OF NEXT WEEK AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A
FORCING MECHANISM OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN
BY TUESDAY THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FEELING A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
MODELS SEEM IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVING AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE
THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER...THOUGH THIS IS STILL 6 DAYS OUT IN THE FORECAST AND TOO
EARLY TO OUTLOOK.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ANOTHER FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA BY MIDWEEK...THIS ONE NOT AS STRONG...AND MOISTURE NOT AS DEEP
AS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SO ONLY WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TODAY...ENDING BY THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MOST TERMINALS. SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL MAINLY
IMPACT HUF AND BMG...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ACTIVITY
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS IND. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AROUND 10 KT...AND STAY PRETTY STEADY
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOME MORE ENE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT MAINLY HUF AND BMG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FOR MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 020854
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
454 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE DRIVEN BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOWER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
SHIFTS AT TIMES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXTEND FARTHER
NORTH. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY...BUT
SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ANY SHIFT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.

ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM TODAY SHOULD STAY UNDER SEVERE LEVELS. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT EXTEND ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO TENNESSEE VALLEY.

STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S HIGHS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHIFTS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...POPS WILL DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW EVENING. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DESPITE SOME WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL BUT A WEAK WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
A MODEL BLEND HANDLED TEMPS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONDITIONS WILL EITHER BE DRY OR WITH AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR START OF NEXT WEEK AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A
FORCING MECHANISM OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN
BY TUESDAY THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FEELING A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
MODELS SEEM IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVING AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE
THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER...THOUGH THIS IS STILL 6 DAYS OUT IN THE FORECAST AND TOO
EARLY TO OUTLOOK.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ANOTHER FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA BY MIDWEEK...THIS ONE NOT AS STRONG...AND MOISTURE NOT AS DEEP
AS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SO ONLY WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

0830Z UPDATE...

ADDED AN OVERCAST CIRRUS DECK TO IND AND WENT WITH A PREVAILING
LIGHT NE WIND BASED ON TRENDS RATHER THAN VRB. ALSO KBMG MAY NEED
A TEMPO GROUP TO IFR...BUT FOR NOW KEPT IT LOW END MVFR CEILINGS.
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN SOME FORM LATER TONIGHT AT
HUF/BMG...PERHAPS AT IND. LAF LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR.

SOME SHOWERS IMPACTED HUF/BMG EARLIER THIS EVENING AND MORE ACTIVITY
ONGOING NEARBY. EXPECT THAT DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
PROXIMITY TO LINGERING STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AT IND BUT THIS IS MORE UNCERTAIN FURTHER FROM THE BOUNDARY.

WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES.

STORMS MAY BE A THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT TOO UNCERTAIN FOR
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 020854
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
454 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE DRIVEN BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOWER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
SHIFTS AT TIMES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXTEND FARTHER
NORTH. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY...BUT
SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ANY SHIFT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.

ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM TODAY SHOULD STAY UNDER SEVERE LEVELS. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT EXTEND ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO TENNESSEE VALLEY.

STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S HIGHS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHIFTS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...POPS WILL DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW EVENING. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DESPITE SOME WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL BUT A WEAK WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
A MODEL BLEND HANDLED TEMPS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONDITIONS WILL EITHER BE DRY OR WITH AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR START OF NEXT WEEK AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A
FORCING MECHANISM OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN
BY TUESDAY THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FEELING A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
MODELS SEEM IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVING AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE
THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER...THOUGH THIS IS STILL 6 DAYS OUT IN THE FORECAST AND TOO
EARLY TO OUTLOOK.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ANOTHER FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA BY MIDWEEK...THIS ONE NOT AS STRONG...AND MOISTURE NOT AS DEEP
AS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SO ONLY WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

0830Z UPDATE...

ADDED AN OVERCAST CIRRUS DECK TO IND AND WENT WITH A PREVAILING
LIGHT NE WIND BASED ON TRENDS RATHER THAN VRB. ALSO KBMG MAY NEED
A TEMPO GROUP TO IFR...BUT FOR NOW KEPT IT LOW END MVFR CEILINGS.
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN SOME FORM LATER TONIGHT AT
HUF/BMG...PERHAPS AT IND. LAF LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR.

SOME SHOWERS IMPACTED HUF/BMG EARLIER THIS EVENING AND MORE ACTIVITY
ONGOING NEARBY. EXPECT THAT DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
PROXIMITY TO LINGERING STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AT IND BUT THIS IS MORE UNCERTAIN FURTHER FROM THE BOUNDARY.

WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES.

STORMS MAY BE A THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT TOO UNCERTAIN FOR
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 020800
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE DRIVEN BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOWER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
SHIFTS AT TIMES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXTEND FARTHER
NORTH. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY...BUT
SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ANY SHIFT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.

ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM TODAY SHOULD STAY UNDER SEVERE LEVELS. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT EXTEND ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO TENNESSEE VALLEY.

STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S HIGHS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHIFTS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...POPS WILL DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW EVENING. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DESPITE SOME WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL BUT A WEAK WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
A MODEL BLEND HANDLED TEMPS BEST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONDITIONS WILL EITHER BE DRY OR WITH AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR START OF NEXT WEEK AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A
FORCING MECHANISM OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN
BY TUESDAY THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FEELING A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
MODELS SEEM IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVING AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE
THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER...THOUGH THIS IS STILL 6 DAYS OUT IN THE FORECAST AND TOO
EARLY TO OUTLOOK.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ANOTHER FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA BY MIDWEEK...THIS ONE NOT AS STRONG...AND MOISTURE NOT AS DEEP
AS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SO ONLY WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN SOME FORM LATER TONIGHT AT
HUF/BMG...PERHAPS AT IND. LAF LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR.

SOME SHOWERS IMPACTED HUF/BMG EARLIER THIS EVENING AND MORE ACTIVITY
ONGOING NEARBY. EXPECT THAT DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
PROXIMITY TO LINGERING STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AT IND BUT THIS IS MORE UNCERTAIN FURTHER FROM THE BOUNDARY.

WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES.

STORMS MAY BE A THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT TOO UNCERTAIN FOR
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 020800
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE DRIVEN BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOWER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
SHIFTS AT TIMES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXTEND FARTHER
NORTH. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY...BUT
SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ANY SHIFT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.

ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM TODAY SHOULD STAY UNDER SEVERE LEVELS. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT EXTEND ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO TENNESSEE VALLEY.

STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S HIGHS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHIFTS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...POPS WILL DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW EVENING. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DESPITE SOME WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL BUT A WEAK WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
A MODEL BLEND HANDLED TEMPS BEST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONDITIONS WILL EITHER BE DRY OR WITH AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR START OF NEXT WEEK AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A
FORCING MECHANISM OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN
BY TUESDAY THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FEELING A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
MODELS SEEM IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVING AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE
THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER...THOUGH THIS IS STILL 6 DAYS OUT IN THE FORECAST AND TOO
EARLY TO OUTLOOK.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ANOTHER FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA BY MIDWEEK...THIS ONE NOT AS STRONG...AND MOISTURE NOT AS DEEP
AS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SO ONLY WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN SOME FORM LATER TONIGHT AT
HUF/BMG...PERHAPS AT IND. LAF LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR.

SOME SHOWERS IMPACTED HUF/BMG EARLIER THIS EVENING AND MORE ACTIVITY
ONGOING NEARBY. EXPECT THAT DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
PROXIMITY TO LINGERING STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AT IND BUT THIS IS MORE UNCERTAIN FURTHER FROM THE BOUNDARY.

WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES.

STORMS MAY BE A THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT TOO UNCERTAIN FOR
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 020800
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE DRIVEN BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOWER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
SHIFTS AT TIMES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXTEND FARTHER
NORTH. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY...BUT
SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ANY SHIFT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.

ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM TODAY SHOULD STAY UNDER SEVERE LEVELS. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT EXTEND ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO TENNESSEE VALLEY.

STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S HIGHS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHIFTS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...POPS WILL DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW EVENING. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DESPITE SOME WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL BUT A WEAK WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
A MODEL BLEND HANDLED TEMPS BEST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONDITIONS WILL EITHER BE DRY OR WITH AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR START OF NEXT WEEK AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A
FORCING MECHANISM OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN
BY TUESDAY THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FEELING A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
MODELS SEEM IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVING AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE
THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER...THOUGH THIS IS STILL 6 DAYS OUT IN THE FORECAST AND TOO
EARLY TO OUTLOOK.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ANOTHER FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA BY MIDWEEK...THIS ONE NOT AS STRONG...AND MOISTURE NOT AS DEEP
AS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SO ONLY WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN SOME FORM LATER TONIGHT AT
HUF/BMG...PERHAPS AT IND. LAF LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR.

SOME SHOWERS IMPACTED HUF/BMG EARLIER THIS EVENING AND MORE ACTIVITY
ONGOING NEARBY. EXPECT THAT DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
PROXIMITY TO LINGERING STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AT IND BUT THIS IS MORE UNCERTAIN FURTHER FROM THE BOUNDARY.

WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES.

STORMS MAY BE A THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT TOO UNCERTAIN FOR
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 020800
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE DRIVEN BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOWER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
SHIFTS AT TIMES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXTEND FARTHER
NORTH. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY...BUT
SOME ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ANY SHIFT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.

ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM TODAY SHOULD STAY UNDER SEVERE LEVELS. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT EXTEND ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO TENNESSEE VALLEY.

STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S HIGHS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHIFTS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...POPS WILL DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW EVENING. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DESPITE SOME WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL BUT A WEAK WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
A MODEL BLEND HANDLED TEMPS BEST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONDITIONS WILL EITHER BE DRY OR WITH AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR START OF NEXT WEEK AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A
FORCING MECHANISM OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN
BY TUESDAY THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FEELING A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
MODELS SEEM IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVING AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE
THE NEXT BIG CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER...THOUGH THIS IS STILL 6 DAYS OUT IN THE FORECAST AND TOO
EARLY TO OUTLOOK.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ANOTHER FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA BY MIDWEEK...THIS ONE NOT AS STRONG...AND MOISTURE NOT AS DEEP
AS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SO ONLY WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN SOME FORM LATER TONIGHT AT
HUF/BMG...PERHAPS AT IND. LAF LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR.

SOME SHOWERS IMPACTED HUF/BMG EARLIER THIS EVENING AND MORE ACTIVITY
ONGOING NEARBY. EXPECT THAT DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
PROXIMITY TO LINGERING STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AT IND BUT THIS IS MORE UNCERTAIN FURTHER FROM THE BOUNDARY.

WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES.

STORMS MAY BE A THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT TOO UNCERTAIN FOR
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 020515
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
115 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

INDIANA WILL STAY WEDGED BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH INTO FRIDAY. NEXT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER AS IT BUILDS TO COVER ALMOST ALL OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

TUESDAY THINGS SHOULD CHANGE AGAIN. A COLD FRONT COMING FROM THE
WEST IS SHOULD CROSS THE HOOSIER STATE. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE OVER INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER WABASH
VALLEY IN VICINITY OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA. SLOW MOVING STORMS HAVE BEEN SUBSEVERE...BUT
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE SEEN 2 TO 3 INCH TOTALS
ESTIMATED FROM RADAR OVER KNOX COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTED ELSEWHERE. 02Z TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID
60S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE FOCUSING ON
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT. STORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY EAST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA
NEAR THE FRONT AND ALONG THE THETA-E AND INSTABILITY AXES. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL JET POINTED TOWARDS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY SHOULD ENABLE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OVER
THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY. WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS HERE...DROPPING
TO LOW CHANCE ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
PRECIP NORTHEAST OF A LAFAYETTE-NOBLESVILLE-NEW CASTLE LINE. COULD
SEE A VERY LIGHT SHOWER...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS
POINT. MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS START MOVING OVER
THE SAME AREAS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S
SOUTH. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN PROBLEM.

THE MAV POPS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE BEST THURSDAY. THEY LOOK BEST
TONIGHT...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. CONSIDERING THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION GOOD POPS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE GOOD POPS TOMORROW.

STARTING THURSDAY THE MODELS FINALLY CONVERGE ON HANDLING THE TROUGH
SO IMPORTANT TO INDIANA LATELY.  THIS SUPPORTS DRYING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER DEWPOINTS BUILDING IN.

THE DRYING IS GOING TO BE SLOW. ALL THE MODELS KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO FRIDAY. AFTER THAT THE GFS/MAV KILLS
ALMOST ANY RAIN. THIS SHOULD BE CORRECT. THE GFS TENDS TO
PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVE OVER THE NAM WITH TIME.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONSIDERING BASIC THERMAL FIELDS...THE GRADUAL
DRYING...AND RECENT BIASES... A COUPLE OF DEGREES WILL BE ADDED
TO THE MAV MAXIMUMS AND SUBTRACTED FROM THE MAV MINIMUMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NORM FOR 4TH OF JULY.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN THIS WEEK. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY TO
START AS MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY FOCUSING CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION ON DRYNESS WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THAT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BOUNDARY FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A DISTINCT TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT TO
INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED BY
INCREASING POPS STARTING MONDAY AND HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION AND BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COMING WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ON THROUGH AND DROP THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY MIDWEEK RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN SOME FORM LATER TONIGHT AT
HUF/BMG...PERHAPS AT IND. LAF LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR.

SOME SHOWERS IMPACTED HUF/BMG EARLIER THIS EVENING AND MORE ACTIVITY
ONGOING NEARBY. EXPECT THAT DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
PROXIMITY TO LINGERING STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AT IND BUT THIS IS MORE UNCERTAIN FURTHER FROM THE BOUNDARY.

WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES.

STORMS MAY BE A THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT TOO UNCERTAIN FOR
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TUCEK
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 020515
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
115 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

INDIANA WILL STAY WEDGED BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH INTO FRIDAY. NEXT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER AS IT BUILDS TO COVER ALMOST ALL OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

TUESDAY THINGS SHOULD CHANGE AGAIN. A COLD FRONT COMING FROM THE
WEST IS SHOULD CROSS THE HOOSIER STATE. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE OVER INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER WABASH
VALLEY IN VICINITY OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA. SLOW MOVING STORMS HAVE BEEN SUBSEVERE...BUT
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE SEEN 2 TO 3 INCH TOTALS
ESTIMATED FROM RADAR OVER KNOX COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTED ELSEWHERE. 02Z TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID
60S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE FOCUSING ON
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT. STORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY EAST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA
NEAR THE FRONT AND ALONG THE THETA-E AND INSTABILITY AXES. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL JET POINTED TOWARDS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY SHOULD ENABLE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OVER
THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY. WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS HERE...DROPPING
TO LOW CHANCE ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
PRECIP NORTHEAST OF A LAFAYETTE-NOBLESVILLE-NEW CASTLE LINE. COULD
SEE A VERY LIGHT SHOWER...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS
POINT. MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS START MOVING OVER
THE SAME AREAS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S
SOUTH. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN PROBLEM.

THE MAV POPS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE BEST THURSDAY. THEY LOOK BEST
TONIGHT...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. CONSIDERING THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION GOOD POPS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE GOOD POPS TOMORROW.

STARTING THURSDAY THE MODELS FINALLY CONVERGE ON HANDLING THE TROUGH
SO IMPORTANT TO INDIANA LATELY.  THIS SUPPORTS DRYING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER DEWPOINTS BUILDING IN.

THE DRYING IS GOING TO BE SLOW. ALL THE MODELS KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO FRIDAY. AFTER THAT THE GFS/MAV KILLS
ALMOST ANY RAIN. THIS SHOULD BE CORRECT. THE GFS TENDS TO
PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVE OVER THE NAM WITH TIME.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONSIDERING BASIC THERMAL FIELDS...THE GRADUAL
DRYING...AND RECENT BIASES... A COUPLE OF DEGREES WILL BE ADDED
TO THE MAV MAXIMUMS AND SUBTRACTED FROM THE MAV MINIMUMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NORM FOR 4TH OF JULY.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN THIS WEEK. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY TO
START AS MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY FOCUSING CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION ON DRYNESS WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THAT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BOUNDARY FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A DISTINCT TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT TO
INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED BY
INCREASING POPS STARTING MONDAY AND HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION AND BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COMING WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ON THROUGH AND DROP THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY MIDWEEK RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN SOME FORM LATER TONIGHT AT
HUF/BMG...PERHAPS AT IND. LAF LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR.

SOME SHOWERS IMPACTED HUF/BMG EARLIER THIS EVENING AND MORE ACTIVITY
ONGOING NEARBY. EXPECT THAT DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
PROXIMITY TO LINGERING STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AT IND BUT THIS IS MORE UNCERTAIN FURTHER FROM THE BOUNDARY.

WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES.

STORMS MAY BE A THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT TOO UNCERTAIN FOR
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TUCEK
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 020515
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
115 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

INDIANA WILL STAY WEDGED BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH INTO FRIDAY. NEXT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER AS IT BUILDS TO COVER ALMOST ALL OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

TUESDAY THINGS SHOULD CHANGE AGAIN. A COLD FRONT COMING FROM THE
WEST IS SHOULD CROSS THE HOOSIER STATE. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE OVER INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER WABASH
VALLEY IN VICINITY OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA. SLOW MOVING STORMS HAVE BEEN SUBSEVERE...BUT
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE SEEN 2 TO 3 INCH TOTALS
ESTIMATED FROM RADAR OVER KNOX COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTED ELSEWHERE. 02Z TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID
60S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE FOCUSING ON
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT. STORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY EAST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA
NEAR THE FRONT AND ALONG THE THETA-E AND INSTABILITY AXES. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL JET POINTED TOWARDS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY SHOULD ENABLE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OVER
THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY. WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS HERE...DROPPING
TO LOW CHANCE ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
PRECIP NORTHEAST OF A LAFAYETTE-NOBLESVILLE-NEW CASTLE LINE. COULD
SEE A VERY LIGHT SHOWER...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS
POINT. MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS START MOVING OVER
THE SAME AREAS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S
SOUTH. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN PROBLEM.

THE MAV POPS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE BEST THURSDAY. THEY LOOK BEST
TONIGHT...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. CONSIDERING THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION GOOD POPS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE GOOD POPS TOMORROW.

STARTING THURSDAY THE MODELS FINALLY CONVERGE ON HANDLING THE TROUGH
SO IMPORTANT TO INDIANA LATELY.  THIS SUPPORTS DRYING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER DEWPOINTS BUILDING IN.

THE DRYING IS GOING TO BE SLOW. ALL THE MODELS KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO FRIDAY. AFTER THAT THE GFS/MAV KILLS
ALMOST ANY RAIN. THIS SHOULD BE CORRECT. THE GFS TENDS TO
PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVE OVER THE NAM WITH TIME.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONSIDERING BASIC THERMAL FIELDS...THE GRADUAL
DRYING...AND RECENT BIASES... A COUPLE OF DEGREES WILL BE ADDED
TO THE MAV MAXIMUMS AND SUBTRACTED FROM THE MAV MINIMUMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NORM FOR 4TH OF JULY.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN THIS WEEK. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY TO
START AS MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY FOCUSING CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION ON DRYNESS WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THAT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BOUNDARY FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A DISTINCT TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT TO
INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED BY
INCREASING POPS STARTING MONDAY AND HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION AND BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COMING WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ON THROUGH AND DROP THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY MIDWEEK RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN SOME FORM LATER TONIGHT AT
HUF/BMG...PERHAPS AT IND. LAF LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR.

SOME SHOWERS IMPACTED HUF/BMG EARLIER THIS EVENING AND MORE ACTIVITY
ONGOING NEARBY. EXPECT THAT DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
PROXIMITY TO LINGERING STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AT IND BUT THIS IS MORE UNCERTAIN FURTHER FROM THE BOUNDARY.

WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES.

STORMS MAY BE A THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT TOO UNCERTAIN FOR
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TUCEK
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 020515
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
115 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

INDIANA WILL STAY WEDGED BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH INTO FRIDAY. NEXT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER AS IT BUILDS TO COVER ALMOST ALL OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

TUESDAY THINGS SHOULD CHANGE AGAIN. A COLD FRONT COMING FROM THE
WEST IS SHOULD CROSS THE HOOSIER STATE. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE OVER INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER WABASH
VALLEY IN VICINITY OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA. SLOW MOVING STORMS HAVE BEEN SUBSEVERE...BUT
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE SEEN 2 TO 3 INCH TOTALS
ESTIMATED FROM RADAR OVER KNOX COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTED ELSEWHERE. 02Z TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID
60S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE FOCUSING ON
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT. STORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY EAST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA
NEAR THE FRONT AND ALONG THE THETA-E AND INSTABILITY AXES. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL JET POINTED TOWARDS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY SHOULD ENABLE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OVER
THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY. WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS HERE...DROPPING
TO LOW CHANCE ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
PRECIP NORTHEAST OF A LAFAYETTE-NOBLESVILLE-NEW CASTLE LINE. COULD
SEE A VERY LIGHT SHOWER...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS
POINT. MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS START MOVING OVER
THE SAME AREAS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S
SOUTH. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN PROBLEM.

THE MAV POPS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE BEST THURSDAY. THEY LOOK BEST
TONIGHT...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. CONSIDERING THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION GOOD POPS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE GOOD POPS TOMORROW.

STARTING THURSDAY THE MODELS FINALLY CONVERGE ON HANDLING THE TROUGH
SO IMPORTANT TO INDIANA LATELY.  THIS SUPPORTS DRYING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER DEWPOINTS BUILDING IN.

THE DRYING IS GOING TO BE SLOW. ALL THE MODELS KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO FRIDAY. AFTER THAT THE GFS/MAV KILLS
ALMOST ANY RAIN. THIS SHOULD BE CORRECT. THE GFS TENDS TO
PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVE OVER THE NAM WITH TIME.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONSIDERING BASIC THERMAL FIELDS...THE GRADUAL
DRYING...AND RECENT BIASES... A COUPLE OF DEGREES WILL BE ADDED
TO THE MAV MAXIMUMS AND SUBTRACTED FROM THE MAV MINIMUMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NORM FOR 4TH OF JULY.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN THIS WEEK. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY TO
START AS MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY FOCUSING CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION ON DRYNESS WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THAT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BOUNDARY FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A DISTINCT TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT TO
INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED BY
INCREASING POPS STARTING MONDAY AND HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION AND BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COMING WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ON THROUGH AND DROP THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY MIDWEEK RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN SOME FORM LATER TONIGHT AT
HUF/BMG...PERHAPS AT IND. LAF LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR.

SOME SHOWERS IMPACTED HUF/BMG EARLIER THIS EVENING AND MORE ACTIVITY
ONGOING NEARBY. EXPECT THAT DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
PROXIMITY TO LINGERING STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AT IND BUT THIS IS MORE UNCERTAIN FURTHER FROM THE BOUNDARY.

WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES.

STORMS MAY BE A THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT TOO UNCERTAIN FOR
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TUCEK
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 020222
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1022 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

INDIANA WILL STAY WEDGED BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH INTO FRIDAY. NEXT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER AS IT BUILDS TO COVER ALMOST ALL OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

TUESDAY THINGS SHOULD CHANGE AGAIN. A COLD FRONT COMING FROM THE
WEST IS SHOULD CROSS THE HOOSIER STATE. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE OVER INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER WABASH
VALLEY IN VICINITY OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA. SLOW MOVING STORMS HAVE BEEN SUBSEVERE...BUT
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE SEEN 2 TO 3 INCH TOTALS
ESTIMATED FROM RADAR OVER KNOX COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTED ELSEWHERE. 02Z TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID
60S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE FOCUSING ON
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT. STORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY EAST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA
NEAR THE FRONT AND ALONG THE THETA-E AND INSTABILITY AXES. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL JET POINTED TOWARDS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY SHOULD ENABLE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OVER
THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY. WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS HERE...DROPPING
TO LOW CHANCE ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
PRECIP NORTHEAST OF A LAFAYETTE-NOBLESVILLE-NEW CASTLE LINE. COULD
SEE A VERY LIGHT SHOWER...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS
POINT. MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS START MOVING OVER
THE SAME AREAS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S
SOUTH. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN PROBLEM.

THE MAV POPS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE BEST THURSDAY. THEY LOOK BEST
TONIGHT...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. CONSIDERING THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION GOOD POPS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE GOOD POPS TOMORROW.

STARTING THURSDAY THE MODELS FINALLY CONVERGE ON HANDLING THE TROUGH
SO IMPORTANT TO INDIANA LATELY.  THIS SUPPORTS DRYING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER DEWPOINTS BUILDING IN.

THE DRYING IS GOING TO BE SLOW. ALL THE MODELS KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO FRIDAY. AFTER THAT THE GFS/MAV KILLS
ALMOST ANY RAIN. THIS SHOULD BE CORRECT. THE GFS TENDS TO
PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVE OVER THE NAM WITH TIME.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONSIDERING BASIC THERMAL FIELDS...THE GRADUAL
DRYING...AND RECENT BIASES... A COUPLE OF DEGREES WILL BE ADDED
TO THE MAV MAXIMUMS AND SUBTRACTED FROM THE MAV MINIMUMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NORM FOR 4TH OF JULY.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN THIS WEEK. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY TO
START AS MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY FOCUSING CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION ON DRYNESS WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THAT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BOUNDARY FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A DISTINCT TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT TO
INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED BY
INCREASING POPS STARTING MONDAY AND HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION AND BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COMING WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ON THROUGH AND DROP THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY MIDWEEK RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN SOME FORM LATER TONIGHT AT
HUF/BMG. VFR LIKELY ELSEWHERE.

SOME SHOWERS...SO FAR WITH NO LIGHTNING...HAVE IMPACTED HUF AND BMG
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH PROXIMITY TO BOUNDARY...EXPECT THAT FOG
AND LOW CLOUD WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. WITH EVENING RAINS...WILL
TAKE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO IFR AND LEAVE CLOUD DECK MVFR.

WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TUCEK
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 020222
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1022 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

INDIANA WILL STAY WEDGED BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH INTO FRIDAY. NEXT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER AS IT BUILDS TO COVER ALMOST ALL OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

TUESDAY THINGS SHOULD CHANGE AGAIN. A COLD FRONT COMING FROM THE
WEST IS SHOULD CROSS THE HOOSIER STATE. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE OVER INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER WABASH
VALLEY IN VICINITY OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA. SLOW MOVING STORMS HAVE BEEN SUBSEVERE...BUT
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE SEEN 2 TO 3 INCH TOTALS
ESTIMATED FROM RADAR OVER KNOX COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTED ELSEWHERE. 02Z TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID
60S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE FOCUSING ON
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT. STORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY EAST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA
NEAR THE FRONT AND ALONG THE THETA-E AND INSTABILITY AXES. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL JET POINTED TOWARDS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY SHOULD ENABLE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OVER
THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY. WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS HERE...DROPPING
TO LOW CHANCE ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
PRECIP NORTHEAST OF A LAFAYETTE-NOBLESVILLE-NEW CASTLE LINE. COULD
SEE A VERY LIGHT SHOWER...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS
POINT. MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS START MOVING OVER
THE SAME AREAS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S
SOUTH. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN PROBLEM.

THE MAV POPS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE BEST THURSDAY. THEY LOOK BEST
TONIGHT...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. CONSIDERING THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION GOOD POPS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE GOOD POPS TOMORROW.

STARTING THURSDAY THE MODELS FINALLY CONVERGE ON HANDLING THE TROUGH
SO IMPORTANT TO INDIANA LATELY.  THIS SUPPORTS DRYING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER DEWPOINTS BUILDING IN.

THE DRYING IS GOING TO BE SLOW. ALL THE MODELS KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO FRIDAY. AFTER THAT THE GFS/MAV KILLS
ALMOST ANY RAIN. THIS SHOULD BE CORRECT. THE GFS TENDS TO
PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVE OVER THE NAM WITH TIME.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONSIDERING BASIC THERMAL FIELDS...THE GRADUAL
DRYING...AND RECENT BIASES... A COUPLE OF DEGREES WILL BE ADDED
TO THE MAV MAXIMUMS AND SUBTRACTED FROM THE MAV MINIMUMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NORM FOR 4TH OF JULY.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN THIS WEEK. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY TO
START AS MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY FOCUSING CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION ON DRYNESS WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THAT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BOUNDARY FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A DISTINCT TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT TO
INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED BY
INCREASING POPS STARTING MONDAY AND HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION AND BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COMING WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ON THROUGH AND DROP THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY MIDWEEK RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN SOME FORM LATER TONIGHT AT
HUF/BMG. VFR LIKELY ELSEWHERE.

SOME SHOWERS...SO FAR WITH NO LIGHTNING...HAVE IMPACTED HUF AND BMG
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH PROXIMITY TO BOUNDARY...EXPECT THAT FOG
AND LOW CLOUD WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. WITH EVENING RAINS...WILL
TAKE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO IFR AND LEAVE CLOUD DECK MVFR.

WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TUCEK
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 020222
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1022 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

INDIANA WILL STAY WEDGED BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH INTO FRIDAY. NEXT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER AS IT BUILDS TO COVER ALMOST ALL OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

TUESDAY THINGS SHOULD CHANGE AGAIN. A COLD FRONT COMING FROM THE
WEST IS SHOULD CROSS THE HOOSIER STATE. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE OVER INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER WABASH
VALLEY IN VICINITY OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA. SLOW MOVING STORMS HAVE BEEN SUBSEVERE...BUT
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE SEEN 2 TO 3 INCH TOTALS
ESTIMATED FROM RADAR OVER KNOX COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTED ELSEWHERE. 02Z TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID
60S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE FOCUSING ON
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT. STORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY EAST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA
NEAR THE FRONT AND ALONG THE THETA-E AND INSTABILITY AXES. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL JET POINTED TOWARDS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY SHOULD ENABLE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OVER
THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY. WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS HERE...DROPPING
TO LOW CHANCE ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
PRECIP NORTHEAST OF A LAFAYETTE-NOBLESVILLE-NEW CASTLE LINE. COULD
SEE A VERY LIGHT SHOWER...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS
POINT. MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS START MOVING OVER
THE SAME AREAS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S
SOUTH. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN PROBLEM.

THE MAV POPS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE BEST THURSDAY. THEY LOOK BEST
TONIGHT...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. CONSIDERING THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION GOOD POPS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE GOOD POPS TOMORROW.

STARTING THURSDAY THE MODELS FINALLY CONVERGE ON HANDLING THE TROUGH
SO IMPORTANT TO INDIANA LATELY.  THIS SUPPORTS DRYING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER DEWPOINTS BUILDING IN.

THE DRYING IS GOING TO BE SLOW. ALL THE MODELS KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO FRIDAY. AFTER THAT THE GFS/MAV KILLS
ALMOST ANY RAIN. THIS SHOULD BE CORRECT. THE GFS TENDS TO
PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVE OVER THE NAM WITH TIME.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONSIDERING BASIC THERMAL FIELDS...THE GRADUAL
DRYING...AND RECENT BIASES... A COUPLE OF DEGREES WILL BE ADDED
TO THE MAV MAXIMUMS AND SUBTRACTED FROM THE MAV MINIMUMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NORM FOR 4TH OF JULY.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN THIS WEEK. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY TO
START AS MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY FOCUSING CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION ON DRYNESS WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THAT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BOUNDARY FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A DISTINCT TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT TO
INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED BY
INCREASING POPS STARTING MONDAY AND HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION AND BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COMING WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ON THROUGH AND DROP THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY MIDWEEK RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN SOME FORM LATER TONIGHT AT
HUF/BMG. VFR LIKELY ELSEWHERE.

SOME SHOWERS...SO FAR WITH NO LIGHTNING...HAVE IMPACTED HUF AND BMG
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH PROXIMITY TO BOUNDARY...EXPECT THAT FOG
AND LOW CLOUD WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. WITH EVENING RAINS...WILL
TAKE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO IFR AND LEAVE CLOUD DECK MVFR.

WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TUCEK
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 012311
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
711 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

INDIANA WILL STAY WEDGED BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH INTO FRIDAY. NEXT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER AS IT BUILDS TO COVER ALMOST ALL OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

TUESDAY THINGS SHOULD CHANGE AGAIN. A COLD FRONT COMING FROM THE
WEST IS SHOULD CROSS THE HOOSIER STATE. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE OVER INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

POPS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE.

THE GFS HAS BEEN A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA LATELY. THE NAM HAS BEEN BETTER. THAT SEEMS LIKELY
TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT CONSIDERING WHERE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE
THE TROUGH. IT IS ALSO WHAT THE SHORTER TERM MODELS ARE SAYING.

PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST
WHERE THE TROUGH IS. THIS IS APT TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
SINCE ALL MODELS HAVE A WEAK WAVE PASSING ON THE 1.5 POTENTIAL
ISENTROPIC VORTICITY SURFACE. ALL THIS MAKES THE CATEGORICAL MAV
POPS LOOK BEST FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST EVEN IF THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC FIELDS LEAVE SOMETHING TO BE DESIRED.

ELSEWHERE THE MAV POPS ALSO LOOK REASONABLE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE GFS
SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE NORTH WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE...THE MAV
SHOULD BE TOO HIGH. THE MET POPS FROM THE MODEL WHOSE PHYSICAL
FIELDS SEEM TO BE BEST SAY THE MAV IS TOO DRY. CONSIDERING THE
OFFSETTING FACTORS THE MAY MAY HAVE FOUND THE OPTIMAL MID POINT.

SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM MOSTLY CLEAR NORTH TO CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS SOUTH CONSIDERING PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION.

GIVEN THE TEMPERATURES OBSERVED NORTH OF THE TROUGH LAST NIGHT...AND
THAT THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST GRIP ON TROUGH LOCATION
TONIGHT...THE MET LOOKS GOOD FOR MINIMUMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN PROBLEM.

THE MAV POPS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE BEST THURSDAY. THEY LOOK BEST
TONIGHT...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. CONSIDERING THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION GOOD POPS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE GOOD POPS TOMORROW.

STARTING THURSDAY THE MODELS FINALLY CONVERGE ON HANDLING THE TROUGH
SO IMPORTANT TO INDIANA LATELY.  THIS SUPPORTS DRYING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER DEWPOINTS BUILDING IN.

THE DRYING IS GOING TO BE SLOW. ALL THE MODELS KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO FRIDAY. AFTER THAT THE GFS/MAV KILLS
ALMOST ANY RAIN. THIS SHOULD BE CORRECT. THE GFS TENDS TO
PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVE OVER THE NAM WITH TIME.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONSIDERING BASIC THERMAL FIELDS...THE GRADUAL
DRYING...AND RECENT BIASES... A COUPLE OF DEGREES WILL BE ADDED
TO THE MAV MAXIMUMS AND SUBTRACTED FROM THE MAV MINIMUMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NORM FOR 4TH OF JULY.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN THIS WEEK. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY TO
START AS MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY FOCUSING CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION ON DRYNESS WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THAT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BOUNDARY FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A DISTINCT TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT TO
INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED BY
INCREASING POPS STARTING MONDAY AND HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION AND BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COMING WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ON THROUGH AND DROP THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY MIDWEEK RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN SOME FORM LATER TONIGHT AT
HUF/BMG. VFR LIKELY ELSEWHERE.

SOME SHOWERS...SO FAR WITH NO LIGHTNING...HAVE IMPACTED HUF AND BMG
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH PROXIMITY TO BOUNDARY...EXPECT THAT FOG
AND LOW CLOUD WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. WITH EVENING RAINS...WILL
TAKE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO IFR AND LEAVE CLOUD DECK MVFR.

WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TUCEK
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 012311
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
711 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

INDIANA WILL STAY WEDGED BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH INTO FRIDAY. NEXT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER AS IT BUILDS TO COVER ALMOST ALL OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

TUESDAY THINGS SHOULD CHANGE AGAIN. A COLD FRONT COMING FROM THE
WEST IS SHOULD CROSS THE HOOSIER STATE. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE OVER INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

POPS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE.

THE GFS HAS BEEN A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA LATELY. THE NAM HAS BEEN BETTER. THAT SEEMS LIKELY
TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT CONSIDERING WHERE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE
THE TROUGH. IT IS ALSO WHAT THE SHORTER TERM MODELS ARE SAYING.

PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST
WHERE THE TROUGH IS. THIS IS APT TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
SINCE ALL MODELS HAVE A WEAK WAVE PASSING ON THE 1.5 POTENTIAL
ISENTROPIC VORTICITY SURFACE. ALL THIS MAKES THE CATEGORICAL MAV
POPS LOOK BEST FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST EVEN IF THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC FIELDS LEAVE SOMETHING TO BE DESIRED.

ELSEWHERE THE MAV POPS ALSO LOOK REASONABLE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE GFS
SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE NORTH WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE...THE MAV
SHOULD BE TOO HIGH. THE MET POPS FROM THE MODEL WHOSE PHYSICAL
FIELDS SEEM TO BE BEST SAY THE MAV IS TOO DRY. CONSIDERING THE
OFFSETTING FACTORS THE MAY MAY HAVE FOUND THE OPTIMAL MID POINT.

SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM MOSTLY CLEAR NORTH TO CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS SOUTH CONSIDERING PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION.

GIVEN THE TEMPERATURES OBSERVED NORTH OF THE TROUGH LAST NIGHT...AND
THAT THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST GRIP ON TROUGH LOCATION
TONIGHT...THE MET LOOKS GOOD FOR MINIMUMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN PROBLEM.

THE MAV POPS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE BEST THURSDAY. THEY LOOK BEST
TONIGHT...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. CONSIDERING THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION GOOD POPS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE GOOD POPS TOMORROW.

STARTING THURSDAY THE MODELS FINALLY CONVERGE ON HANDLING THE TROUGH
SO IMPORTANT TO INDIANA LATELY.  THIS SUPPORTS DRYING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER DEWPOINTS BUILDING IN.

THE DRYING IS GOING TO BE SLOW. ALL THE MODELS KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO FRIDAY. AFTER THAT THE GFS/MAV KILLS
ALMOST ANY RAIN. THIS SHOULD BE CORRECT. THE GFS TENDS TO
PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVE OVER THE NAM WITH TIME.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONSIDERING BASIC THERMAL FIELDS...THE GRADUAL
DRYING...AND RECENT BIASES... A COUPLE OF DEGREES WILL BE ADDED
TO THE MAV MAXIMUMS AND SUBTRACTED FROM THE MAV MINIMUMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NORM FOR 4TH OF JULY.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN THIS WEEK. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY TO
START AS MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY FOCUSING CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION ON DRYNESS WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THAT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BOUNDARY FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A DISTINCT TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT TO
INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED BY
INCREASING POPS STARTING MONDAY AND HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION AND BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COMING WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ON THROUGH AND DROP THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY MIDWEEK RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN SOME FORM LATER TONIGHT AT
HUF/BMG. VFR LIKELY ELSEWHERE.

SOME SHOWERS...SO FAR WITH NO LIGHTNING...HAVE IMPACTED HUF AND BMG
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH PROXIMITY TO BOUNDARY...EXPECT THAT FOG
AND LOW CLOUD WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. WITH EVENING RAINS...WILL
TAKE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO IFR AND LEAVE CLOUD DECK MVFR.

WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TUCEK
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 011905
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

INDIANA WILL STAY WEDGED BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH INTO FRIDAY. NEXT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER AS IT BUILDS TO COVER ALMOST ALL OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

TUESDAY THINGS SHOULD CHANGE AGAIN. A COLD FRONT COMING FROM THE
WEST IS SHOULD CROSS THE HOOSIER STATE. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE OVER INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

POPS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE.

THE GFS HAS BEEN A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA LATELY. THE NAM HAS BEEN BETTER. THAT SEEMS LIKELY
TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT CONSIDERING WHERE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE
THE TROUGH. IT IS ALSO WHAT THE SHORTER TERM MODELS ARE SAYING.

PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST
WHERE THE TROUGH IS. THIS IS APT TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
SINCE ALL MODELS HAVE A WEAK WAVE PASSING ON THE 1.5 POTENTIAL
ISENTROPIC VORTICITY SURFACE. ALL THIS MAKES THE CATEGORICAL MAV
POPS LOOK BEST FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST EVEN IF THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC FIELDS LEAVE SOMETHING TO BE DESIRED.

ELSEWHERE THE MAV POPS ALSO LOOK REASONABLE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE GFS
SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE NORTH WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE...THE MAV
SHOULD BE TOO HIGH. THE MET POPS FROM THE MODEL WHOSE PHYSICAL
FIELDS SEEM TO BE BEST SAY THE MAV IS TOO DRY. CONSIDERING THE
OFFSETTING FACTORS THE MAY MAY HAVE FOUND THE OPTIMAL MID POINT.

SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM MOSTLY CLEAR NORTH TO CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS SOUTH CONSIDERING PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION.

GIVEN THE TEMPERATURES OBSERVED NORTH OF THE TROUGH LAST NIGHT...AND
THAT THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST GRIP ON TROUGH LOCATION
TONIGHT...THE MET LOOKS GOOD FOR MINIMUMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN PROBLEM.

THE MAV POPS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE BEST THURSDAY. THEY LOOK BEST
TONIGHT...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. CONSIDERING THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION GOOD POPS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE GOOD POPS TOMORROW.

STARTING THURSDAY THE MODELS FINALLY CONVERGE ON HANDLING THE TROUGH
SO IMPORTANT TO INDIANA LATELY.  THIS SUPPORTS DRYING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER DEWPOINTS BUILDING IN.

THE DRYING IS GOING TO BE SLOW. ALL THE MODELS KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO FRIDAY. AFTER THAT THE GFS/MAV KILLS
ALMOST ANY RAIN. THIS SHOULD BE CORRECT. THE GFS TENDS TO
PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVE OVER THE NAM WITH TIME.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONSIDERING BASIC THERMAL FIELDS...THE GRADUAL
DRYING...AND RECENT BIASES... A COUPLE OF DEGREES WILL BE ADDED
TO THE MAV MAXIMUMS AND SUBTRACTED FROM THE MAV MINIMUMS.

&&


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NORM FOR 4TH OF JULY.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN THIS WEEK. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY TO
START AS MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY FOCUSING CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION ON DRYNESS WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THAT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BOUNDARY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A DISTINCT TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT TO
INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED BY
INCREASING POPS STARTING MONDAY AND HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION AND BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COMING WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ON THROUGH AND DROP THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY MIDWEEK RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE
MOVES ESE TOWARDS OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY.

EXCEPTION TO VFR MAY BE KHUF WHERE MVFR DECKS OF A 1000 TO 2000
FT OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY AND STILL LINGER JUST WEST IN CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THESE MAY FILL BACK IN TO KHUF AREA AFT 012000Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NEAR THE E-W
ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH AND THESE MAY AFFECT KHUF...KBMG AND
POSSIBLY EVEN KIND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT ALL BUT KLAF INTO MID DAY THURSDAY.

WITH ESSENTIALLY DRY DAY ANTICIPATED TODAY...THINK THE DRYING WILL
HELP PREVENT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KHUF AND KBMG LIKE LAST NIGHT.
EVENTUAL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
WHILE PATCHY BROKEN CLOUDS LIMIT RADIATION COOLING SHOULD ALSO AID
THE LOWER LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR FOG TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 011905
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

INDIANA WILL STAY WEDGED BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH INTO FRIDAY. NEXT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER AS IT BUILDS TO COVER ALMOST ALL OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

TUESDAY THINGS SHOULD CHANGE AGAIN. A COLD FRONT COMING FROM THE
WEST IS SHOULD CROSS THE HOOSIER STATE. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE OVER INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

POPS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE.

THE GFS HAS BEEN A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA LATELY. THE NAM HAS BEEN BETTER. THAT SEEMS LIKELY
TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT CONSIDERING WHERE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE
THE TROUGH. IT IS ALSO WHAT THE SHORTER TERM MODELS ARE SAYING.

PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST
WHERE THE TROUGH IS. THIS IS APT TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
SINCE ALL MODELS HAVE A WEAK WAVE PASSING ON THE 1.5 POTENTIAL
ISENTROPIC VORTICITY SURFACE. ALL THIS MAKES THE CATEGORICAL MAV
POPS LOOK BEST FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST EVEN IF THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC FIELDS LEAVE SOMETHING TO BE DESIRED.

ELSEWHERE THE MAV POPS ALSO LOOK REASONABLE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE GFS
SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE NORTH WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE...THE MAV
SHOULD BE TOO HIGH. THE MET POPS FROM THE MODEL WHOSE PHYSICAL
FIELDS SEEM TO BE BEST SAY THE MAV IS TOO DRY. CONSIDERING THE
OFFSETTING FACTORS THE MAY MAY HAVE FOUND THE OPTIMAL MID POINT.

SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM MOSTLY CLEAR NORTH TO CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS SOUTH CONSIDERING PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION.

GIVEN THE TEMPERATURES OBSERVED NORTH OF THE TROUGH LAST NIGHT...AND
THAT THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST GRIP ON TROUGH LOCATION
TONIGHT...THE MET LOOKS GOOD FOR MINIMUMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN PROBLEM.

THE MAV POPS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE BEST THURSDAY. THEY LOOK BEST
TONIGHT...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. CONSIDERING THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION GOOD POPS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE GOOD POPS TOMORROW.

STARTING THURSDAY THE MODELS FINALLY CONVERGE ON HANDLING THE TROUGH
SO IMPORTANT TO INDIANA LATELY.  THIS SUPPORTS DRYING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER DEWPOINTS BUILDING IN.

THE DRYING IS GOING TO BE SLOW. ALL THE MODELS KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO FRIDAY. AFTER THAT THE GFS/MAV KILLS
ALMOST ANY RAIN. THIS SHOULD BE CORRECT. THE GFS TENDS TO
PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVE OVER THE NAM WITH TIME.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONSIDERING BASIC THERMAL FIELDS...THE GRADUAL
DRYING...AND RECENT BIASES... A COUPLE OF DEGREES WILL BE ADDED
TO THE MAV MAXIMUMS AND SUBTRACTED FROM THE MAV MINIMUMS.

&&


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NORM FOR 4TH OF JULY.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN THIS WEEK. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY TO
START AS MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY FOCUSING CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION ON DRYNESS WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THAT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BOUNDARY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A DISTINCT TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT TO
INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED BY
INCREASING POPS STARTING MONDAY AND HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION AND BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COMING WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ON THROUGH AND DROP THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY MIDWEEK RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE
MOVES ESE TOWARDS OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY.

EXCEPTION TO VFR MAY BE KHUF WHERE MVFR DECKS OF A 1000 TO 2000
FT OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY AND STILL LINGER JUST WEST IN CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THESE MAY FILL BACK IN TO KHUF AREA AFT 012000Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NEAR THE E-W
ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH AND THESE MAY AFFECT KHUF...KBMG AND
POSSIBLY EVEN KIND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT ALL BUT KLAF INTO MID DAY THURSDAY.

WITH ESSENTIALLY DRY DAY ANTICIPATED TODAY...THINK THE DRYING WILL
HELP PREVENT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KHUF AND KBMG LIKE LAST NIGHT.
EVENTUAL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
WHILE PATCHY BROKEN CLOUDS LIMIT RADIATION COOLING SHOULD ALSO AID
THE LOWER LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR FOG TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 011813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
213 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM TROUGHING TO NEARLY ZONAL DURING THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA UNTIL THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
RESULT WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED 2 DEGREES BASED ON 12Z SOUNDING
TEMPERATURES AND ALSO A MODEL COOL BIAS YESTERDAY.

MOST OF THE REST OF THIS DISCUSSION IS A SLIGHTLY MODIFIED VERSION
OF WHAT WAS SENT AT 326 THIS MORNING.

AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES CLOSER SOME RAIN MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR NORTHEAST THIS RAIN WILL GET.
MODELS VARY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. RAIN WILL HAVE TO FIGHT THE DRIER
AIR WORKING IN BEHIND A WEAK FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.
ALSO...MOST FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE ABOVE FEEL THAT THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY. NOT QUITE SURE HOW FAR NORTHEAST RAIN WILL GET...SO KEPT
A BUFFER ZONE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE LAFAYETTE TO INDY AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN HOW THEY HANDLE RAIN COVERAGE.
WITH ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...STUCK WITH
A BROAD BLEND.

FORCING SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TONIGHT SO PUSHED POPS FARTHER
NORTH ONCE AGAIN. STILL WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA WITH A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP
EXTREME NORTH DRY...THEN CHANCE POPS CENTRAL WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WAVES RIDE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER
WAVES MOVE THROUGH. KEPT HIGHEST POPS SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND WHICH IS SIMILAR TO
MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NORM FOR 4TH OF JULY.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN THIS WEEK. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY TO
START AS MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY FOCUSING CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION ON DRYNESS WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THAT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BOUNDARY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A DISTINCT TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT TO
INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED BY
INCREASING POPS STARTING MONDAY AND HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION AND BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COMING WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ON THROUGH AND DROP THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY MIDWEEK RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE
MOVES ESE TOWARDS OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY.

EXCEPTION TO VFR MAY BE KHUF WHERE MVFR DECKS OF A 1000 TO 2000
FT OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY AND STILL LINGER JUST WEST IN CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THESE MAY FILL BACK IN TO KHUF AREA AFT 012000Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NEAR THE E-W
ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH AND THESE MAY AFFECT KHUF...KBMG AND
POSSIBLY EVEN KIND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT ALL BUT KLAF INTO MID DAY THURSDAY.

WITH ESSENTIALLY DRY DAY ANTICIPATED TODAY...THINK THE DRYING WILL
HELP PREVENT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KHUF AND KBMG LIKE LAST NIGHT.
EVENTUAL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
WHILE PATCHY BROKEN CLOUDS LIMIT RADIATION COOLING SHOULD ALSO AID
THE LOWER LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR FOG TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 011813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
213 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM TROUGHING TO NEARLY ZONAL DURING THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA UNTIL THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
RESULT WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED 2 DEGREES BASED ON 12Z SOUNDING
TEMPERATURES AND ALSO A MODEL COOL BIAS YESTERDAY.

MOST OF THE REST OF THIS DISCUSSION IS A SLIGHTLY MODIFIED VERSION
OF WHAT WAS SENT AT 326 THIS MORNING.

AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES CLOSER SOME RAIN MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR NORTHEAST THIS RAIN WILL GET.
MODELS VARY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. RAIN WILL HAVE TO FIGHT THE DRIER
AIR WORKING IN BEHIND A WEAK FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.
ALSO...MOST FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE ABOVE FEEL THAT THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY. NOT QUITE SURE HOW FAR NORTHEAST RAIN WILL GET...SO KEPT
A BUFFER ZONE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE LAFAYETTE TO INDY AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN HOW THEY HANDLE RAIN COVERAGE.
WITH ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...STUCK WITH
A BROAD BLEND.

FORCING SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TONIGHT SO PUSHED POPS FARTHER
NORTH ONCE AGAIN. STILL WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA WITH A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP
EXTREME NORTH DRY...THEN CHANCE POPS CENTRAL WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WAVES RIDE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER
WAVES MOVE THROUGH. KEPT HIGHEST POPS SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND WHICH IS SIMILAR TO
MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NORM FOR 4TH OF JULY.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN THIS WEEK. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY TO
START AS MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY FOCUSING CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION ON DRYNESS WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THAT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BOUNDARY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A DISTINCT TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT TO
INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED BY
INCREASING POPS STARTING MONDAY AND HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION AND BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COMING WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ON THROUGH AND DROP THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY MIDWEEK RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE
MOVES ESE TOWARDS OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY.

EXCEPTION TO VFR MAY BE KHUF WHERE MVFR DECKS OF A 1000 TO 2000
FT OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY AND STILL LINGER JUST WEST IN CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THESE MAY FILL BACK IN TO KHUF AREA AFT 012000Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NEAR THE E-W
ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH AND THESE MAY AFFECT KHUF...KBMG AND
POSSIBLY EVEN KIND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT ALL BUT KLAF INTO MID DAY THURSDAY.

WITH ESSENTIALLY DRY DAY ANTICIPATED TODAY...THINK THE DRYING WILL
HELP PREVENT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KHUF AND KBMG LIKE LAST NIGHT.
EVENTUAL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
WHILE PATCHY BROKEN CLOUDS LIMIT RADIATION COOLING SHOULD ALSO AID
THE LOWER LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR FOG TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 011813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
213 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM TROUGHING TO NEARLY ZONAL DURING THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA UNTIL THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
RESULT WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED 2 DEGREES BASED ON 12Z SOUNDING
TEMPERATURES AND ALSO A MODEL COOL BIAS YESTERDAY.

MOST OF THE REST OF THIS DISCUSSION IS A SLIGHTLY MODIFIED VERSION
OF WHAT WAS SENT AT 326 THIS MORNING.

AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES CLOSER SOME RAIN MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR NORTHEAST THIS RAIN WILL GET.
MODELS VARY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. RAIN WILL HAVE TO FIGHT THE DRIER
AIR WORKING IN BEHIND A WEAK FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.
ALSO...MOST FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE ABOVE FEEL THAT THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY. NOT QUITE SURE HOW FAR NORTHEAST RAIN WILL GET...SO KEPT
A BUFFER ZONE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE LAFAYETTE TO INDY AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN HOW THEY HANDLE RAIN COVERAGE.
WITH ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...STUCK WITH
A BROAD BLEND.

FORCING SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TONIGHT SO PUSHED POPS FARTHER
NORTH ONCE AGAIN. STILL WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA WITH A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP
EXTREME NORTH DRY...THEN CHANCE POPS CENTRAL WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WAVES RIDE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER
WAVES MOVE THROUGH. KEPT HIGHEST POPS SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND WHICH IS SIMILAR TO
MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NORM FOR 4TH OF JULY.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN THIS WEEK. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY TO
START AS MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY FOCUSING CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION ON DRYNESS WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THAT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BOUNDARY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A DISTINCT TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT TO
INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED BY
INCREASING POPS STARTING MONDAY AND HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION AND BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COMING WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ON THROUGH AND DROP THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY MIDWEEK RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE
MOVES ESE TOWARDS OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY.

EXCEPTION TO VFR MAY BE KHUF WHERE MVFR DECKS OF A 1000 TO 2000
FT OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY AND STILL LINGER JUST WEST IN CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THESE MAY FILL BACK IN TO KHUF AREA AFT 012000Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NEAR THE E-W
ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH AND THESE MAY AFFECT KHUF...KBMG AND
POSSIBLY EVEN KIND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT ALL BUT KLAF INTO MID DAY THURSDAY.

WITH ESSENTIALLY DRY DAY ANTICIPATED TODAY...THINK THE DRYING WILL
HELP PREVENT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KHUF AND KBMG LIKE LAST NIGHT.
EVENTUAL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
WHILE PATCHY BROKEN CLOUDS LIMIT RADIATION COOLING SHOULD ALSO AID
THE LOWER LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR FOG TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 011718
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
118 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM TROUGHING TO NEARLY ZONAL DURING THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA UNTIL THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
RESULT WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED 2 DEGREES BASED ON 12Z SOUNDING
TEMPERATURES AND ALSO A MODEL COOL BIAS YESTERDAY.

MOST OF THE REST OF THIS DISCUSSION IS A SLIGHTLY MODIFIED VERSION
OF WHAT WAS SENT AT 326 THIS MORNING.

AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES CLOSER SOME RAIN MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR NORTHEAST THIS RAIN WILL GET.
MODELS VARY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. RAIN WILL HAVE TO FIGHT THE DRIER
AIR WORKING IN BEHIND A WEAK FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.
ALSO...MOST FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE ABOVE FEEL THAT THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY. NOT QUITE SURE HOW FAR NORTHEAST RAIN WILL GET...SO KEPT
A BUFFER ZONE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE LAFAYETTE TO INDY AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN HOW THEY HANDLE RAIN COVERAGE.
WITH ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...STUCK WITH
A BROAD BLEND.

FORCING SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TONIGHT SO PUSHED POPS FARTHER
NORTH ONCE AGAIN. STILL WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA WITH A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP
EXTREME NORTH DRY...THEN CHANCE POPS CENTRAL WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WAVES RIDE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER
WAVES MOVE THROUGH. KEPT HIGHEST POPS SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND WHICH IS SIMILAR TO
MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN APPEARS TO SPED UP BY THE
MODELS TO AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...LEAVING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA DRY AND ALL THE FORECAST AREA DRY BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SAVE FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. IF THIS PATTERN TREND HOLDS...THIS WOULD BE A WELCOME
RELIEF TO MANY FOLKS PLANNING SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS ON THE SATURDAY
JULY 4TH.

THEN STARTING SUNDAY WEAK CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN STORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM THE MODELS ARE
PROGGING IS A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SO FAR MODELS SEEM TO BE SOMEWHAT IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT AFTERWARDS THE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIFFER WITH SOME MODELS
STALLING THIS FRONT OVER THE AREA AND SOME PUSHING IT SLOWLY THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. KEPT POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD
BELOW LIKELY DUE TO THIS DISCREPANCY BUT LEFT IN THE HIGHER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE
MOVES ESE TOWARDS OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY.

EXCEPTION TO VFR MAY BE KHUF WHERE MVFR DECKS OF A 1000 TO 2000
FT OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY AND STILL LINGER JUST WEST IN CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THESE MAY FILL BACK IN TO KHUF AREA AFT 012000Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NEAR THE E-W
ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH AND THESE MAY AFFECT KHUF...KBMG AND
POSSIBLY EVEN KIND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT ALL BUT KLAF INTO MID DAY THURSDAY.

WITH ESSENTIALLY DRY DAY ANTICIPATED TODAY...THINK THE DRYING WILL
HELP PREVENT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KHUF AND KBMG LIKE LAST NIGHT.
EVENTUAL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
WHILE PATCHY BROKEN CLOUDS LIMIT RADIATION COOLING SHOULD ALSO AID
THE LOWER LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 011718
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
118 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM TROUGHING TO NEARLY ZONAL DURING THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA UNTIL THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
RESULT WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED 2 DEGREES BASED ON 12Z SOUNDING
TEMPERATURES AND ALSO A MODEL COOL BIAS YESTERDAY.

MOST OF THE REST OF THIS DISCUSSION IS A SLIGHTLY MODIFIED VERSION
OF WHAT WAS SENT AT 326 THIS MORNING.

AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES CLOSER SOME RAIN MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR NORTHEAST THIS RAIN WILL GET.
MODELS VARY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. RAIN WILL HAVE TO FIGHT THE DRIER
AIR WORKING IN BEHIND A WEAK FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.
ALSO...MOST FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE ABOVE FEEL THAT THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY. NOT QUITE SURE HOW FAR NORTHEAST RAIN WILL GET...SO KEPT
A BUFFER ZONE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE LAFAYETTE TO INDY AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN HOW THEY HANDLE RAIN COVERAGE.
WITH ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...STUCK WITH
A BROAD BLEND.

FORCING SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TONIGHT SO PUSHED POPS FARTHER
NORTH ONCE AGAIN. STILL WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA WITH A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP
EXTREME NORTH DRY...THEN CHANCE POPS CENTRAL WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WAVES RIDE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER
WAVES MOVE THROUGH. KEPT HIGHEST POPS SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND WHICH IS SIMILAR TO
MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN APPEARS TO SPED UP BY THE
MODELS TO AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...LEAVING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA DRY AND ALL THE FORECAST AREA DRY BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SAVE FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. IF THIS PATTERN TREND HOLDS...THIS WOULD BE A WELCOME
RELIEF TO MANY FOLKS PLANNING SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS ON THE SATURDAY
JULY 4TH.

THEN STARTING SUNDAY WEAK CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN STORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM THE MODELS ARE
PROGGING IS A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SO FAR MODELS SEEM TO BE SOMEWHAT IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT AFTERWARDS THE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIFFER WITH SOME MODELS
STALLING THIS FRONT OVER THE AREA AND SOME PUSHING IT SLOWLY THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. KEPT POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD
BELOW LIKELY DUE TO THIS DISCREPANCY BUT LEFT IN THE HIGHER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE
MOVES ESE TOWARDS OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY.

EXCEPTION TO VFR MAY BE KHUF WHERE MVFR DECKS OF A 1000 TO 2000
FT OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY AND STILL LINGER JUST WEST IN CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THESE MAY FILL BACK IN TO KHUF AREA AFT 012000Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NEAR THE E-W
ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH AND THESE MAY AFFECT KHUF...KBMG AND
POSSIBLY EVEN KIND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT ALL BUT KLAF INTO MID DAY THURSDAY.

WITH ESSENTIALLY DRY DAY ANTICIPATED TODAY...THINK THE DRYING WILL
HELP PREVENT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KHUF AND KBMG LIKE LAST NIGHT.
EVENTUAL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
WHILE PATCHY BROKEN CLOUDS LIMIT RADIATION COOLING SHOULD ALSO AID
THE LOWER LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 011718
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
118 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM TROUGHING TO NEARLY ZONAL DURING THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA UNTIL THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
RESULT WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED 2 DEGREES BASED ON 12Z SOUNDING
TEMPERATURES AND ALSO A MODEL COOL BIAS YESTERDAY.

MOST OF THE REST OF THIS DISCUSSION IS A SLIGHTLY MODIFIED VERSION
OF WHAT WAS SENT AT 326 THIS MORNING.

AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES CLOSER SOME RAIN MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR NORTHEAST THIS RAIN WILL GET.
MODELS VARY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. RAIN WILL HAVE TO FIGHT THE DRIER
AIR WORKING IN BEHIND A WEAK FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.
ALSO...MOST FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE ABOVE FEEL THAT THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY. NOT QUITE SURE HOW FAR NORTHEAST RAIN WILL GET...SO KEPT
A BUFFER ZONE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE LAFAYETTE TO INDY AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN HOW THEY HANDLE RAIN COVERAGE.
WITH ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...STUCK WITH
A BROAD BLEND.

FORCING SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TONIGHT SO PUSHED POPS FARTHER
NORTH ONCE AGAIN. STILL WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA WITH A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP
EXTREME NORTH DRY...THEN CHANCE POPS CENTRAL WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WAVES RIDE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER
WAVES MOVE THROUGH. KEPT HIGHEST POPS SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND WHICH IS SIMILAR TO
MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN APPEARS TO SPED UP BY THE
MODELS TO AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...LEAVING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA DRY AND ALL THE FORECAST AREA DRY BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SAVE FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. IF THIS PATTERN TREND HOLDS...THIS WOULD BE A WELCOME
RELIEF TO MANY FOLKS PLANNING SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS ON THE SATURDAY
JULY 4TH.

THEN STARTING SUNDAY WEAK CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN STORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM THE MODELS ARE
PROGGING IS A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SO FAR MODELS SEEM TO BE SOMEWHAT IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT AFTERWARDS THE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIFFER WITH SOME MODELS
STALLING THIS FRONT OVER THE AREA AND SOME PUSHING IT SLOWLY THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. KEPT POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD
BELOW LIKELY DUE TO THIS DISCREPANCY BUT LEFT IN THE HIGHER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE
MOVES ESE TOWARDS OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY.

EXCEPTION TO VFR MAY BE KHUF WHERE MVFR DECKS OF A 1000 TO 2000
FT OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY AND STILL LINGER JUST WEST IN CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THESE MAY FILL BACK IN TO KHUF AREA AFT 012000Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NEAR THE E-W
ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH AND THESE MAY AFFECT KHUF...KBMG AND
POSSIBLY EVEN KIND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT ALL BUT KLAF INTO MID DAY THURSDAY.

WITH ESSENTIALLY DRY DAY ANTICIPATED TODAY...THINK THE DRYING WILL
HELP PREVENT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KHUF AND KBMG LIKE LAST NIGHT.
EVENTUAL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
WHILE PATCHY BROKEN CLOUDS LIMIT RADIATION COOLING SHOULD ALSO AID
THE LOWER LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 011718
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
118 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM TROUGHING TO NEARLY ZONAL DURING THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA UNTIL THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
RESULT WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED 2 DEGREES BASED ON 12Z SOUNDING
TEMPERATURES AND ALSO A MODEL COOL BIAS YESTERDAY.

MOST OF THE REST OF THIS DISCUSSION IS A SLIGHTLY MODIFIED VERSION
OF WHAT WAS SENT AT 326 THIS MORNING.

AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES CLOSER SOME RAIN MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR NORTHEAST THIS RAIN WILL GET.
MODELS VARY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. RAIN WILL HAVE TO FIGHT THE DRIER
AIR WORKING IN BEHIND A WEAK FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.
ALSO...MOST FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE ABOVE FEEL THAT THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY. NOT QUITE SURE HOW FAR NORTHEAST RAIN WILL GET...SO KEPT
A BUFFER ZONE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE LAFAYETTE TO INDY AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN HOW THEY HANDLE RAIN COVERAGE.
WITH ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...STUCK WITH
A BROAD BLEND.

FORCING SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TONIGHT SO PUSHED POPS FARTHER
NORTH ONCE AGAIN. STILL WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA WITH A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP
EXTREME NORTH DRY...THEN CHANCE POPS CENTRAL WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WAVES RIDE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER
WAVES MOVE THROUGH. KEPT HIGHEST POPS SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND WHICH IS SIMILAR TO
MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN APPEARS TO SPED UP BY THE
MODELS TO AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...LEAVING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA DRY AND ALL THE FORECAST AREA DRY BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SAVE FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. IF THIS PATTERN TREND HOLDS...THIS WOULD BE A WELCOME
RELIEF TO MANY FOLKS PLANNING SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS ON THE SATURDAY
JULY 4TH.

THEN STARTING SUNDAY WEAK CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN STORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM THE MODELS ARE
PROGGING IS A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SO FAR MODELS SEEM TO BE SOMEWHAT IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT AFTERWARDS THE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIFFER WITH SOME MODELS
STALLING THIS FRONT OVER THE AREA AND SOME PUSHING IT SLOWLY THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. KEPT POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD
BELOW LIKELY DUE TO THIS DISCREPANCY BUT LEFT IN THE HIGHER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE
MOVES ESE TOWARDS OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY.

EXCEPTION TO VFR MAY BE KHUF WHERE MVFR DECKS OF A 1000 TO 2000
FT OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY AND STILL LINGER JUST WEST IN CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THESE MAY FILL BACK IN TO KHUF AREA AFT 012000Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NEAR THE E-W
ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH AND THESE MAY AFFECT KHUF...KBMG AND
POSSIBLY EVEN KIND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT ALL BUT KLAF INTO MID DAY THURSDAY.

WITH ESSENTIALLY DRY DAY ANTICIPATED TODAY...THINK THE DRYING WILL
HELP PREVENT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KHUF AND KBMG LIKE LAST NIGHT.
EVENTUAL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
WHILE PATCHY BROKEN CLOUDS LIMIT RADIATION COOLING SHOULD ALSO AID
THE LOWER LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 011421
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1021 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM TROUGHING TO NEARLY ZONAL DURING THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA UNTIL THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
RESULT WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED 2 DEGREES BASED ON 12Z SOUNDING
TEMPERATURES AND ALSO A MODEL COOL BIAS YESTERDAY.

MOST OF THE REST OF THIS DISCUSSION IS A SLIGHTLY MODIFIED VERSION
OF WHAT WAS SENT AT 326 THIS MORNING.

AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES CLOSER SOME RAIN MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR NORTHEAST THIS RAIN WILL GET.
MODELS VARY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. RAIN WILL HAVE TO FIGHT THE DRIER
AIR WORKING IN BEHIND A WEAK FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.
ALSO...MOST FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE ABOVE FEEL THAT THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY. NOT QUITE SURE HOW FAR NORTHEAST RAIN WILL GET...SO KEPT
A BUFFER ZONE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE LAFAYETTE TO INDY AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN HOW THEY HANDLE RAIN COVERAGE.
WITH ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...STUCK WITH
A BROAD BLEND.

FORCING SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TONIGHT SO PUSHED POPS FARTHER
NORTH ONCE AGAIN. STILL WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA WITH A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP
EXTREME NORTH DRY...THEN CHANCE POPS CENTRAL WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WAVES RIDE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER
WAVES MOVE THROUGH. KEPT HIGHEST POPS SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND WHICH IS SIMILAR TO
MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN APPEARS TO SPED UP BY THE
MODELS TO AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...LEAVING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA DRY AND ALL THE FORECAST AREA DRY BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SAVE FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. IF THIS PATTERN TREND HOLDS...THIS WOULD BE A WELCOME
RELIEF TO MANY FOLKS PLANNING SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS ON THE SATURDAY
JULY 4TH.

THEN STARTING SUNDAY WEAK CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN STORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM THE MODELS ARE
PROGGING IS A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SO FAR MODELS SEEM TO BE SOMEWHAT IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT AFTERWARDS THE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIFFER WITH SOME MODELS
STALLING THIS FRONT OVER THE AREA AND SOME PUSHING IT SLOWLY THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. KEPT POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD
BELOW LIKELY DUE TO THIS DISCREPANCY BUT LEFT IN THE HIGHER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE FOR KIND TAF/...

ISSUED AT 1016 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS BELOW 10 KTS STILL FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD.
WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES BUILDS
IN AND SWINGS WINDS FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST AS DAY
PROGRESSES.

SATELLITE INDICATES SMOKE LAYER TO REMAIN SW OF KIND.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 011421
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1021 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM TROUGHING TO NEARLY ZONAL DURING THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA UNTIL THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
RESULT WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED 2 DEGREES BASED ON 12Z SOUNDING
TEMPERATURES AND ALSO A MODEL COOL BIAS YESTERDAY.

MOST OF THE REST OF THIS DISCUSSION IS A SLIGHTLY MODIFIED VERSION
OF WHAT WAS SENT AT 326 THIS MORNING.

AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES CLOSER SOME RAIN MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR NORTHEAST THIS RAIN WILL GET.
MODELS VARY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. RAIN WILL HAVE TO FIGHT THE DRIER
AIR WORKING IN BEHIND A WEAK FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.
ALSO...MOST FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE ABOVE FEEL THAT THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY. NOT QUITE SURE HOW FAR NORTHEAST RAIN WILL GET...SO KEPT
A BUFFER ZONE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE LAFAYETTE TO INDY AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN HOW THEY HANDLE RAIN COVERAGE.
WITH ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...STUCK WITH
A BROAD BLEND.

FORCING SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TONIGHT SO PUSHED POPS FARTHER
NORTH ONCE AGAIN. STILL WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA WITH A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP
EXTREME NORTH DRY...THEN CHANCE POPS CENTRAL WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WAVES RIDE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER
WAVES MOVE THROUGH. KEPT HIGHEST POPS SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND WHICH IS SIMILAR TO
MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN APPEARS TO SPED UP BY THE
MODELS TO AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...LEAVING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA DRY AND ALL THE FORECAST AREA DRY BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SAVE FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. IF THIS PATTERN TREND HOLDS...THIS WOULD BE A WELCOME
RELIEF TO MANY FOLKS PLANNING SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS ON THE SATURDAY
JULY 4TH.

THEN STARTING SUNDAY WEAK CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN STORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM THE MODELS ARE
PROGGING IS A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SO FAR MODELS SEEM TO BE SOMEWHAT IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT AFTERWARDS THE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIFFER WITH SOME MODELS
STALLING THIS FRONT OVER THE AREA AND SOME PUSHING IT SLOWLY THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. KEPT POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD
BELOW LIKELY DUE TO THIS DISCREPANCY BUT LEFT IN THE HIGHER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE FOR KIND TAF/...

ISSUED AT 1016 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS BELOW 10 KTS STILL FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD.
WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES BUILDS
IN AND SWINGS WINDS FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST AS DAY
PROGRESSES.

SATELLITE INDICATES SMOKE LAYER TO REMAIN SW OF KIND.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 011421
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1021 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM TROUGHING TO NEARLY ZONAL DURING THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA UNTIL THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
RESULT WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED 2 DEGREES BASED ON 12Z SOUNDING
TEMPERATURES AND ALSO A MODEL COOL BIAS YESTERDAY.

MOST OF THE REST OF THIS DISCUSSION IS A SLIGHTLY MODIFIED VERSION
OF WHAT WAS SENT AT 326 THIS MORNING.

AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES CLOSER SOME RAIN MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR NORTHEAST THIS RAIN WILL GET.
MODELS VARY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. RAIN WILL HAVE TO FIGHT THE DRIER
AIR WORKING IN BEHIND A WEAK FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.
ALSO...MOST FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE ABOVE FEEL THAT THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY. NOT QUITE SURE HOW FAR NORTHEAST RAIN WILL GET...SO KEPT
A BUFFER ZONE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE LAFAYETTE TO INDY AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN HOW THEY HANDLE RAIN COVERAGE.
WITH ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...STUCK WITH
A BROAD BLEND.

FORCING SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TONIGHT SO PUSHED POPS FARTHER
NORTH ONCE AGAIN. STILL WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA WITH A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP
EXTREME NORTH DRY...THEN CHANCE POPS CENTRAL WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WAVES RIDE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER
WAVES MOVE THROUGH. KEPT HIGHEST POPS SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND WHICH IS SIMILAR TO
MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN APPEARS TO SPED UP BY THE
MODELS TO AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...LEAVING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA DRY AND ALL THE FORECAST AREA DRY BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SAVE FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. IF THIS PATTERN TREND HOLDS...THIS WOULD BE A WELCOME
RELIEF TO MANY FOLKS PLANNING SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS ON THE SATURDAY
JULY 4TH.

THEN STARTING SUNDAY WEAK CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN STORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM THE MODELS ARE
PROGGING IS A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SO FAR MODELS SEEM TO BE SOMEWHAT IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT AFTERWARDS THE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIFFER WITH SOME MODELS
STALLING THIS FRONT OVER THE AREA AND SOME PUSHING IT SLOWLY THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. KEPT POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD
BELOW LIKELY DUE TO THIS DISCREPANCY BUT LEFT IN THE HIGHER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE FOR KIND TAF/...

ISSUED AT 1016 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS BELOW 10 KTS STILL FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD.
WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES BUILDS
IN AND SWINGS WINDS FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST AS DAY
PROGRESSES.

SATELLITE INDICATES SMOKE LAYER TO REMAIN SW OF KIND.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 011421
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1021 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM TROUGHING TO NEARLY ZONAL DURING THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA UNTIL THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
RESULT WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED 2 DEGREES BASED ON 12Z SOUNDING
TEMPERATURES AND ALSO A MODEL COOL BIAS YESTERDAY.

MOST OF THE REST OF THIS DISCUSSION IS A SLIGHTLY MODIFIED VERSION
OF WHAT WAS SENT AT 326 THIS MORNING.

AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES CLOSER SOME RAIN MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR NORTHEAST THIS RAIN WILL GET.
MODELS VARY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. RAIN WILL HAVE TO FIGHT THE DRIER
AIR WORKING IN BEHIND A WEAK FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.
ALSO...MOST FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE ABOVE FEEL THAT THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY. NOT QUITE SURE HOW FAR NORTHEAST RAIN WILL GET...SO KEPT
A BUFFER ZONE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE LAFAYETTE TO INDY AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN HOW THEY HANDLE RAIN COVERAGE.
WITH ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...STUCK WITH
A BROAD BLEND.

FORCING SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TONIGHT SO PUSHED POPS FARTHER
NORTH ONCE AGAIN. STILL WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA WITH A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP
EXTREME NORTH DRY...THEN CHANCE POPS CENTRAL WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WAVES RIDE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER
WAVES MOVE THROUGH. KEPT HIGHEST POPS SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND WHICH IS SIMILAR TO
MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN APPEARS TO SPED UP BY THE
MODELS TO AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...LEAVING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA DRY AND ALL THE FORECAST AREA DRY BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SAVE FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. IF THIS PATTERN TREND HOLDS...THIS WOULD BE A WELCOME
RELIEF TO MANY FOLKS PLANNING SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS ON THE SATURDAY
JULY 4TH.

THEN STARTING SUNDAY WEAK CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN STORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM THE MODELS ARE
PROGGING IS A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SO FAR MODELS SEEM TO BE SOMEWHAT IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT AFTERWARDS THE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIFFER WITH SOME MODELS
STALLING THIS FRONT OVER THE AREA AND SOME PUSHING IT SLOWLY THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. KEPT POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD
BELOW LIKELY DUE TO THIS DISCREPANCY BUT LEFT IN THE HIGHER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE FOR KIND TAF/...

ISSUED AT 1016 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS BELOW 10 KTS STILL FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD.
WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES BUILDS
IN AND SWINGS WINDS FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST AS DAY
PROGRESSES.

SATELLITE INDICATES SMOKE LAYER TO REMAIN SW OF KIND.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 011332
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
932 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM TROUGHING TO NEARLY ZONAL DURING THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA UNTIL THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
RESULT WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED 2 DEGREES BASED ON 12Z SOUNDING
TEMPERATURES AND ALSO A MODEL COOL BIAS YESTERDAY.

MOST OF THE REST OF THIS DISCUSSION IS A SLIGHTLY MODIFIED VERSION
OF WHAT WAS SENT AT 326 THIS MORNING.

AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES CLOSER SOME RAIN MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR NORTHEAST THIS RAIN WILL GET.
MODELS VARY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. RAIN WILL HAVE TO FIGHT THE DRIER
AIR WORKING IN BEHIND A WEAK FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.
ALSO...MOST FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE ABOVE FEEL THAT THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY. NOT QUITE SURE HOW FAR NORTHEAST RAIN WILL GET...SO KEPT
A BUFFER ZONE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE LAFAYETTE TO INDY AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN HOW THEY HANDLE RAIN COVERAGE.
WITH ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...STUCK WITH
A BROAD BLEND.

FORCING SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TONIGHT SO PUSHED POPS FARTHER
NORTH ONCE AGAIN. STILL WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA WITH A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP
EXTREME NORTH DRY...THEN CHANCE POPS CENTRAL WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WAVES RIDE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER
WAVES MOVE THROUGH. KEPT HIGHEST POPS SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND WHICH IS SIMILAR TO
MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN APPEARS TO SPED UP BY THE
MODELS TO AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...LEAVING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA DRY AND ALL THE FORECAST AREA DRY BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SAVE FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. IF THIS PATTERN TREND HOLDS...THIS WOULD BE A WELCOME
RELIEF TO MANY FOLKS PLANNING SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS ON THE SATURDAY
JULY 4TH.

THEN STARTING SUNDAY WEAK CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN STORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM THE MODELS ARE
PROGGING IS A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SO FAR MODELS SEEM TO BE SOMEWHAT IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT AFTERWARDS THE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIFFER WITH SOME MODELS
STALLING THIS FRONT OVER THE AREA AND SOME PUSHING IT SLOWLY THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. KEPT POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD
BELOW LIKELY DUE TO THIS DISCREPANCY BUT LEFT IN THE HIGHER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 717 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING MVFR FOG AT HUF AND BMG
EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN POSSIBLY SOME DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR SITES FARTHER SOUTH WHICH WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE ACTIVITY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SUCH AS KBMG...EVEN HUF.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND
WILL LIKELY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SITES AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON...MORE MORE
LIKELY DURING THIS EVENING. INDICATED -SHRA FOR NOW...AND
REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS THIS FAR OUT DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 011332
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
932 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM TROUGHING TO NEARLY ZONAL DURING THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA UNTIL THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
RESULT WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED 2 DEGREES BASED ON 12Z SOUNDING
TEMPERATURES AND ALSO A MODEL COOL BIAS YESTERDAY.

MOST OF THE REST OF THIS DISCUSSION IS A SLIGHTLY MODIFIED VERSION
OF WHAT WAS SENT AT 326 THIS MORNING.

AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES CLOSER SOME RAIN MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR NORTHEAST THIS RAIN WILL GET.
MODELS VARY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. RAIN WILL HAVE TO FIGHT THE DRIER
AIR WORKING IN BEHIND A WEAK FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.
ALSO...MOST FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE ABOVE FEEL THAT THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY. NOT QUITE SURE HOW FAR NORTHEAST RAIN WILL GET...SO KEPT
A BUFFER ZONE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE LAFAYETTE TO INDY AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN HOW THEY HANDLE RAIN COVERAGE.
WITH ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...STUCK WITH
A BROAD BLEND.

FORCING SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TONIGHT SO PUSHED POPS FARTHER
NORTH ONCE AGAIN. STILL WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA WITH A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP
EXTREME NORTH DRY...THEN CHANCE POPS CENTRAL WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WAVES RIDE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER
WAVES MOVE THROUGH. KEPT HIGHEST POPS SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND WHICH IS SIMILAR TO
MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN APPEARS TO SPED UP BY THE
MODELS TO AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...LEAVING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA DRY AND ALL THE FORECAST AREA DRY BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SAVE FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. IF THIS PATTERN TREND HOLDS...THIS WOULD BE A WELCOME
RELIEF TO MANY FOLKS PLANNING SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS ON THE SATURDAY
JULY 4TH.

THEN STARTING SUNDAY WEAK CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN STORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM THE MODELS ARE
PROGGING IS A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SO FAR MODELS SEEM TO BE SOMEWHAT IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT AFTERWARDS THE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIFFER WITH SOME MODELS
STALLING THIS FRONT OVER THE AREA AND SOME PUSHING IT SLOWLY THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. KEPT POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD
BELOW LIKELY DUE TO THIS DISCREPANCY BUT LEFT IN THE HIGHER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 717 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING MVFR FOG AT HUF AND BMG
EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN POSSIBLY SOME DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR SITES FARTHER SOUTH WHICH WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE ACTIVITY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SUCH AS KBMG...EVEN HUF.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND
WILL LIKELY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SITES AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON...MORE MORE
LIKELY DURING THIS EVENING. INDICATED -SHRA FOR NOW...AND
REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS THIS FAR OUT DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 011123
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
723 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM TROUGHING TO NEARLY ZONAL DURING THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA UNTIL THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
RESULT WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH
MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER WAVE WAS
GENERATING CONVECTION ACROSS MISSOURI.

MUCH OF THE MORNING WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AS THE UPPER
WAVE MOVES CLOSER SOME RAIN MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR NORTHEAST THIS RAIN WILL GET. MODELS
VARY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. RAIN WILL HAVE TO FIGHT THE DRIER AIR
WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. ALSO...MOST
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE ABOVE FEEL THAT THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY. NOT QUITE SURE HOW FAR NORTHEAST RAIN WILL GET...SO KEPT
A BUFFER ZONE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE LAFAYETTE TO INDY AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST.

WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN POTENTIAL WENT A LITTLE BELOW MOS
MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN HOW THEY HANDLE RAIN COVERAGE.
WITH ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...STUCK WITH
A BROAD BLEND.

FORCING SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TONIGHT SO PUSHED POPS FARTHER
NORTH ONCE AGAIN. STILL WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA WITH A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP
EXTREME NORTH DRY...THEN CHANCE POPS CENTRAL WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WAVES RIDE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER
WAVES MOVE THROUGH. KEPT HIGHEST POPS SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND WHICH IS SIMILAR TO
MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN APPEARS TO SPED UP BY THE
MODELS TO AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...LEAVING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA DRY AND ALL THE FORECAST AREA DRY BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SAVE FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. IF THIS PATTERN TREND HOLDS...THIS WOULD BE A WELCOME
RELIEF TO MANY FOLKS PLANNING SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS ON THE SATURDAY
JULY 4TH.

THEN STARTING SUNDAY WEAK CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN STORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM THE MODELS ARE
PROGGING IS A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SO FAR MODELS SEEM TO BE SOMEWHAT IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT AFTERWARDS THE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIFFER WITH SOME MODELS
STALLING THIS FRONT OVER THE AREA AND SOME PUSHING IT SLOWLY THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. KEPT POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD
BELOW LIKELY DUE TO THIS DISCREPANCY BUT LEFT IN THE HIGHER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 717 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING MVFR FOG AT HUF AND BMG
EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN POSSIBLY SOME DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR SITES FARTHER SOUTH WHICH WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE ACTIVITY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SUCH AS KBMG...EVEN HUF.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND
WILL LIKELY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SITES AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON...MORE MORE
LIKELY DURING THIS EVENING. INDICATED -SHRA FOR NOW...AND
REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS THIS FAR OUT DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 011123
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
723 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM TROUGHING TO NEARLY ZONAL DURING THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA UNTIL THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
RESULT WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH
MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER WAVE WAS
GENERATING CONVECTION ACROSS MISSOURI.

MUCH OF THE MORNING WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AS THE UPPER
WAVE MOVES CLOSER SOME RAIN MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR NORTHEAST THIS RAIN WILL GET. MODELS
VARY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. RAIN WILL HAVE TO FIGHT THE DRIER AIR
WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. ALSO...MOST
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE ABOVE FEEL THAT THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY. NOT QUITE SURE HOW FAR NORTHEAST RAIN WILL GET...SO KEPT
A BUFFER ZONE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE LAFAYETTE TO INDY AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST.

WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN POTENTIAL WENT A LITTLE BELOW MOS
MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN HOW THEY HANDLE RAIN COVERAGE.
WITH ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...STUCK WITH
A BROAD BLEND.

FORCING SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TONIGHT SO PUSHED POPS FARTHER
NORTH ONCE AGAIN. STILL WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA WITH A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP
EXTREME NORTH DRY...THEN CHANCE POPS CENTRAL WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WAVES RIDE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER
WAVES MOVE THROUGH. KEPT HIGHEST POPS SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND WHICH IS SIMILAR TO
MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN APPEARS TO SPED UP BY THE
MODELS TO AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...LEAVING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA DRY AND ALL THE FORECAST AREA DRY BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SAVE FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. IF THIS PATTERN TREND HOLDS...THIS WOULD BE A WELCOME
RELIEF TO MANY FOLKS PLANNING SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS ON THE SATURDAY
JULY 4TH.

THEN STARTING SUNDAY WEAK CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN STORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM THE MODELS ARE
PROGGING IS A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SO FAR MODELS SEEM TO BE SOMEWHAT IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT AFTERWARDS THE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIFFER WITH SOME MODELS
STALLING THIS FRONT OVER THE AREA AND SOME PUSHING IT SLOWLY THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. KEPT POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD
BELOW LIKELY DUE TO THIS DISCREPANCY BUT LEFT IN THE HIGHER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 717 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING MVFR FOG AT HUF AND BMG
EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN POSSIBLY SOME DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR SITES FARTHER SOUTH WHICH WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE ACTIVITY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SUCH AS KBMG...EVEN HUF.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND
WILL LIKELY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SITES AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON...MORE MORE
LIKELY DURING THIS EVENING. INDICATED -SHRA FOR NOW...AND
REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS THIS FAR OUT DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 011123
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
723 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM TROUGHING TO NEARLY ZONAL DURING THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA UNTIL THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
RESULT WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH
MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER WAVE WAS
GENERATING CONVECTION ACROSS MISSOURI.

MUCH OF THE MORNING WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AS THE UPPER
WAVE MOVES CLOSER SOME RAIN MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR NORTHEAST THIS RAIN WILL GET. MODELS
VARY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. RAIN WILL HAVE TO FIGHT THE DRIER AIR
WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. ALSO...MOST
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE ABOVE FEEL THAT THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY. NOT QUITE SURE HOW FAR NORTHEAST RAIN WILL GET...SO KEPT
A BUFFER ZONE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE LAFAYETTE TO INDY AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST.

WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN POTENTIAL WENT A LITTLE BELOW MOS
MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN HOW THEY HANDLE RAIN COVERAGE.
WITH ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...STUCK WITH
A BROAD BLEND.

FORCING SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TONIGHT SO PUSHED POPS FARTHER
NORTH ONCE AGAIN. STILL WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA WITH A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP
EXTREME NORTH DRY...THEN CHANCE POPS CENTRAL WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WAVES RIDE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER
WAVES MOVE THROUGH. KEPT HIGHEST POPS SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND WHICH IS SIMILAR TO
MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN APPEARS TO SPED UP BY THE
MODELS TO AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...LEAVING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA DRY AND ALL THE FORECAST AREA DRY BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SAVE FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. IF THIS PATTERN TREND HOLDS...THIS WOULD BE A WELCOME
RELIEF TO MANY FOLKS PLANNING SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS ON THE SATURDAY
JULY 4TH.

THEN STARTING SUNDAY WEAK CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN STORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM THE MODELS ARE
PROGGING IS A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SO FAR MODELS SEEM TO BE SOMEWHAT IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT AFTERWARDS THE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIFFER WITH SOME MODELS
STALLING THIS FRONT OVER THE AREA AND SOME PUSHING IT SLOWLY THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. KEPT POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD
BELOW LIKELY DUE TO THIS DISCREPANCY BUT LEFT IN THE HIGHER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 717 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING MVFR FOG AT HUF AND BMG
EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN POSSIBLY SOME DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR SITES FARTHER SOUTH WHICH WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE ACTIVITY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SUCH AS KBMG...EVEN HUF.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND
WILL LIKELY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SITES AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON...MORE MORE
LIKELY DURING THIS EVENING. INDICATED -SHRA FOR NOW...AND
REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS THIS FAR OUT DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 011123
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
723 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM TROUGHING TO NEARLY ZONAL DURING THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA UNTIL THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
RESULT WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH
MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER WAVE WAS
GENERATING CONVECTION ACROSS MISSOURI.

MUCH OF THE MORNING WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AS THE UPPER
WAVE MOVES CLOSER SOME RAIN MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR NORTHEAST THIS RAIN WILL GET. MODELS
VARY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. RAIN WILL HAVE TO FIGHT THE DRIER AIR
WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. ALSO...MOST
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE ABOVE FEEL THAT THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY. NOT QUITE SURE HOW FAR NORTHEAST RAIN WILL GET...SO KEPT
A BUFFER ZONE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE LAFAYETTE TO INDY AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST.

WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN POTENTIAL WENT A LITTLE BELOW MOS
MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN HOW THEY HANDLE RAIN COVERAGE.
WITH ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...STUCK WITH
A BROAD BLEND.

FORCING SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TONIGHT SO PUSHED POPS FARTHER
NORTH ONCE AGAIN. STILL WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA WITH A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP
EXTREME NORTH DRY...THEN CHANCE POPS CENTRAL WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WAVES RIDE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER
WAVES MOVE THROUGH. KEPT HIGHEST POPS SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND WHICH IS SIMILAR TO
MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN APPEARS TO SPED UP BY THE
MODELS TO AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...LEAVING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA DRY AND ALL THE FORECAST AREA DRY BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SAVE FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. IF THIS PATTERN TREND HOLDS...THIS WOULD BE A WELCOME
RELIEF TO MANY FOLKS PLANNING SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS ON THE SATURDAY
JULY 4TH.

THEN STARTING SUNDAY WEAK CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN STORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM THE MODELS ARE
PROGGING IS A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SO FAR MODELS SEEM TO BE SOMEWHAT IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT AFTERWARDS THE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIFFER WITH SOME MODELS
STALLING THIS FRONT OVER THE AREA AND SOME PUSHING IT SLOWLY THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. KEPT POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD
BELOW LIKELY DUE TO THIS DISCREPANCY BUT LEFT IN THE HIGHER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 717 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING MVFR FOG AT HUF AND BMG
EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN POSSIBLY SOME DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR SITES FARTHER SOUTH WHICH WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE ACTIVITY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SUCH AS KBMG...EVEN HUF.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND
WILL LIKELY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SITES AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON...MORE MORE
LIKELY DURING THIS EVENING. INDICATED -SHRA FOR NOW...AND
REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS THIS FAR OUT DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









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