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000
FXUS63 KIND 190833
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
333 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CENTRAL INDIANA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EVEN THOUGH UPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
MONDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE
AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN COOL AGAIN BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...KEEPING THINGS DRY.

LARGE HOLES HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CLOUD COVER THANKS TO SOME OF THE
DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE HIGH. THE HOLES ROUGHLY FOLLOW THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. MODELS SHOW SOME OF THIS DRY AIR PERSISTING
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SOME OF THE HOLES ARE ALREADY CLOSING IN IOWA
AT THE MOMENT.

THUS SKY COVER FORECAST IS TOUGH TODAY AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. KEPT
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA TODAY CLOSER
TO SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE CLOUDS THERE
INTACT. ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF ALLOWED FOR SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND MODEL MOISTURE FORECASTS.

WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED...TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED TO AROUND 20
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD START IN THESE AREAS...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS INHIBITING TEMPERATURE RISES ELSEWHERE...SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS
A LITTLE COLDER THAN MAV MOS WOULD SUGGEST MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS ON SKY COVER.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. BULK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED WELL SOUTH
OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL AT THE
SURFACE.

THUS JUST EXPECT A THICKER CLOUD COVER TO MOVE IN ONCE AGAIN DURING
THIS PERIOD BUT NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE
OUT SOME FLURRIES SATURDAY...BUT AT THE MOMENT FEEL THAT THE ODDS
ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT DO NOT
FEEL THAT ODDS ARE GOOD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION YET.

THUS WILL JUST KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NOT SURE THAT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL REALLY
HAPPEN...BUT SOME HOLES COULD DEVELOP IN THE SKY COVER LIKE WHAT IS
HAPPENING AT THE MOMENT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY STAYED COOLER THAN MAV MOS FOR HIGHS
DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. FOR LOWS STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

A MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEK...HIGHLIGHTED BY A POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SET TO
IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS.
LOTS TO TALK ABOUT THIS MORNING.

STRONG RIDGING ALOFT SET TO DEVELOP OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED...AND THIS WILL PROMPT FALLING HEIGHTS
DOWNSTREAM EAST OF THE ROCKIES AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES.
QUITE A BIT OF ENERGY COURTESY OF A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
PLOWING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SET TO DIVE INTO THE EXPANDING
TROUGH AND LEAD TO PHASING WITH SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE SET TO TRACK OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH
INTO THE REGION AS THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE APPROACH...WITH RAIN
BECOMING LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE
TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SET TO
ORGANIZE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET ENERGY LINKS UP WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM JET. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY GAIN A NEGATIVE
TILT WITH RAPID CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THE PHASING SURFACE WAVE...BUT THE KEY TAKEAWAY IS
THAT MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING BULK OF THE ENSEMBLE RUNS ALL SHOW
THE DEEPENING SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM FOR THE
REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT THE DETAILS ARE
YET TO BE IRONED OUT AND LIKELY WILL NOT BE FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS
UNTIL THE INTENSE UPPER JET ENERGY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IS PROPERLY SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. AT THIS
POINT...HAVE LEANED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH
FAVOR A FASTER PHASING...BUT ALL POSSIBILITIES REMAIN OPEN AT THIS
EARLY STAGE UNTIL GREATER MODEL CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED.

WITH ALL OF THIS BEING SAID...ANTICIPATE RAIN MIXING WITH THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FAR TOO EARLY TO
TALK POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
THESE LOOK RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS POINT. WIND IS LIKELY TO BE A
MORE SIGNIFICANT FACTOR CONSIDERING THE PROGGED INTENSITY OF THE
LOW TO SUB-980MB LEVELS AND POSSIBLY LOWER BY EARLY THURSDAY. EVEN
IF SNOW AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT...WIND DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS COULD CREATE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES AT THE WORST POSSIBLE TIME...CHRISTMAS EVE
INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY TUNED IN THE COMING DAYS. AND THIS
MAY JUST BE THE START...AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN LIKELY PERSISTS BEYOND
THE 7 DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 190900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

POCKETS OF CLEARING CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. STILL ANTICIPATE PERIODS WITH
BROKEN/OVERCAST MVFR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
A TEMPO GROUP. TWEAKED WIND DIRECTION BASED ON CURRENT
OBS...OTHERWISE NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES.

06Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT TO CALM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BASED ON SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND TIME
HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS EXPECT CEILINGS TO BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT LEAST. COULD SEE VFR AFTER THAT FOR
AWHILE BUT UNCERTAINTY IS STILL PRETTY HIGH. KEPT A SCATTERED DECK
AROUND 2500 FT GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COMPLETE CLEARING SEEMS
UNLIKELY. ALSO INCLUDED A FEW HOURS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KBMG
AS THEY HAVE ALREADY SEEN NUMBERS DROP A BIT AND CALM WINDS WILL
NOT BE MIXING ANYTHING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...CP/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 190833
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
333 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CENTRAL INDIANA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EVEN THOUGH UPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
MONDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE
AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN COOL AGAIN BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...KEEPING THINGS DRY.

LARGE HOLES HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CLOUD COVER THANKS TO SOME OF THE
DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE HIGH. THE HOLES ROUGHLY FOLLOW THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. MODELS SHOW SOME OF THIS DRY AIR PERSISTING
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SOME OF THE HOLES ARE ALREADY CLOSING IN IOWA
AT THE MOMENT.

THUS SKY COVER FORECAST IS TOUGH TODAY AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. KEPT
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA TODAY CLOSER
TO SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE CLOUDS THERE
INTACT. ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF ALLOWED FOR SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND MODEL MOISTURE FORECASTS.

WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED...TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED TO AROUND 20
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD START IN THESE AREAS...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS INHIBITING TEMPERATURE RISES ELSEWHERE...SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS
A LITTLE COLDER THAN MAV MOS WOULD SUGGEST MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS ON SKY COVER.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. BULK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED WELL SOUTH
OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL AT THE
SURFACE.

THUS JUST EXPECT A THICKER CLOUD COVER TO MOVE IN ONCE AGAIN DURING
THIS PERIOD BUT NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE
OUT SOME FLURRIES SATURDAY...BUT AT THE MOMENT FEEL THAT THE ODDS
ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT DO NOT
FEEL THAT ODDS ARE GOOD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION YET.

THUS WILL JUST KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NOT SURE THAT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL REALLY
HAPPEN...BUT SOME HOLES COULD DEVELOP IN THE SKY COVER LIKE WHAT IS
HAPPENING AT THE MOMENT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY STAYED COOLER THAN MAV MOS FOR HIGHS
DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. FOR LOWS STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

A MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEK...HIGHLIGHTED BY A POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SET TO
IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS.
LOTS TO TALK ABOUT THIS MORNING.

STRONG RIDGING ALOFT SET TO DEVELOP OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED...AND THIS WILL PROMPT FALLING HEIGHTS
DOWNSTREAM EAST OF THE ROCKIES AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES.
QUITE A BIT OF ENERGY COURTESY OF A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
PLOWING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SET TO DIVE INTO THE EXPANDING
TROUGH AND LEAD TO PHASING WITH SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE SET TO TRACK OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH
INTO THE REGION AS THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE APPROACH...WITH RAIN
BECOMING LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE
TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SET TO
ORGANIZE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET ENERGY LINKS UP WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM JET. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY GAIN A NEGATIVE
TILT WITH RAPID CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THE PHASING SURFACE WAVE...BUT THE KEY TAKEAWAY IS
THAT MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING BULK OF THE ENSEMBLE RUNS ALL SHOW
THE DEEPENING SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM FOR THE
REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT THE DETAILS ARE
YET TO BE IRONED OUT AND LIKELY WILL NOT BE FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS
UNTIL THE INTENSE UPPER JET ENERGY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IS PROPERLY SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. AT THIS
POINT...HAVE LEANED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH
FAVOR A FASTER PHASING...BUT ALL POSSIBILITIES REMAIN OPEN AT THIS
EARLY STAGE UNTIL GREATER MODEL CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED.

WITH ALL OF THIS BEING SAID...ANTICIPATE RAIN MIXING WITH THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FAR TOO EARLY TO
TALK POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
THESE LOOK RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS POINT. WIND IS LIKELY TO BE A
MORE SIGNIFICANT FACTOR CONSIDERING THE PROGGED INTENSITY OF THE
LOW TO SUB-980MB LEVELS AND POSSIBLY LOWER BY EARLY THURSDAY. EVEN
IF SNOW AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT...WIND DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS COULD CREATE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES AT THE WORST POSSIBLE TIME...CHRISTMAS EVE
INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY TUNED IN THE COMING DAYS. AND THIS
MAY JUST BE THE START...AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN LIKELY PERSISTS BEYOND
THE 7 DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 190900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

POCKETS OF CLEARING CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. STILL ANTICIPATE PERIODS WITH
BROKEN/OVERCAST MVFR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
A TEMPO GROUP. TWEAKED WIND DIRECTION BASED ON CURRENT
OBS...OTHERWISE NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES.

06Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT TO CALM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BASED ON SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND TIME
HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS EXPECT CEILINGS TO BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT LEAST. COULD SEE VFR AFTER THAT FOR
AWHILE BUT UNCERTAINTY IS STILL PRETTY HIGH. KEPT A SCATTERED DECK
AROUND 2500 FT GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COMPLETE CLEARING SEEMS
UNLIKELY. ALSO INCLUDED A FEW HOURS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KBMG
AS THEY HAVE ALREADY SEEN NUMBERS DROP A BIT AND CALM WINDS WILL
NOT BE MIXING ANYTHING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...CP/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 190752
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
252 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CENTRAL INDIANA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EVEN THOUGH UPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
MONDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE
AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN COOL AGAIN BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...KEEPING THINGS DRY.

LARGE HOLES HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CLOUD COVER THANKS TO SOME OF THE
DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE HIGH. THE HOLES ROUGHLY FOLLOW THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. MODELS SHOW SOME OF THIS DRY AIR PERSISTING
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SOME OF THE HOLES ARE ALREADY CLOSING IN IOWA
AT THE MOMENT.

THUS SKY COVER FORECAST IS TOUGH TODAY AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. KEPT
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA TODAY CLOSER
TO SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE CLOUDS THERE
INTACT. ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF ALLOWED FOR SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND MODEL MOISTURE FORECASTS.

WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED...TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED TO AROUND 20
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD START IN THESE AREAS...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS INHIBITING TEMPERATURE RISES ELSEWHERE...SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS
A LITTLE COLDER THAN MAV MOS WOULD SUGGEST MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS ON SKY COVER.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. BULK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED WELL SOUTH
OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL AT THE
SURFACE.

THUS JUST EXPECT A THICKER CLOUD COVER TO MOVE IN ONCE AGAIN DURING
THIS PERIOD BUT NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE
OUT SOME FLURRIES SATURDAY...BUT AT THE MOMENT FEEL THAT THE ODDS
ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT DO NOT
FEEL THAT ODDS ARE GOOD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION YET.

THUS WILL JUST KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NOT SURE THAT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL REALLY
HAPPEN...BUT SOME HOLES COULD DEVELOP IN THE SKY COVER LIKE WHAT IS
HAPPENING AT THE MOMENT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY STAYED COOLER THAN MAV MOS FOR HIGHS
DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. FOR LOWS STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 232 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A CUT-OFF LOW TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SETTLING OVER THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY...PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
FINALLY ALL SNOW BY WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 190600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1141 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT TO CALM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BASED ON SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND TIME
HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS EXPECT CEILINGS TO BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT LEAST. COULD SEE VFR AFTER THAT FOR
AWHILE BUT UNCERTAINTY IS STILL PRETTY HIGH. KEPT A SCATTERED DECK
AROUND 2500 FT GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COMPLETE CLEARING SEEMS
UNLIKELY. ALSO INCLUDED A FEW HOURS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KBMG
AS THEY HAVE ALREADY SEEN NUMBERS DROP A BIT AND CALM WINDS WILL
NOT BE MIXING ANYTHING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD/JP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 190752
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
252 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CENTRAL INDIANA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EVEN THOUGH UPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
MONDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE
AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN COOL AGAIN BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...KEEPING THINGS DRY.

LARGE HOLES HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CLOUD COVER THANKS TO SOME OF THE
DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE HIGH. THE HOLES ROUGHLY FOLLOW THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. MODELS SHOW SOME OF THIS DRY AIR PERSISTING
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SOME OF THE HOLES ARE ALREADY CLOSING IN IOWA
AT THE MOMENT.

THUS SKY COVER FORECAST IS TOUGH TODAY AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. KEPT
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA TODAY CLOSER
TO SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE CLOUDS THERE
INTACT. ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF ALLOWED FOR SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND MODEL MOISTURE FORECASTS.

WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED...TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED TO AROUND 20
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD START IN THESE AREAS...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS INHIBITING TEMPERATURE RISES ELSEWHERE...SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS
A LITTLE COLDER THAN MAV MOS WOULD SUGGEST MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS ON SKY COVER.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. BULK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED WELL SOUTH
OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL AT THE
SURFACE.

THUS JUST EXPECT A THICKER CLOUD COVER TO MOVE IN ONCE AGAIN DURING
THIS PERIOD BUT NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE
OUT SOME FLURRIES SATURDAY...BUT AT THE MOMENT FEEL THAT THE ODDS
ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT DO NOT
FEEL THAT ODDS ARE GOOD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION YET.

THUS WILL JUST KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NOT SURE THAT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL REALLY
HAPPEN...BUT SOME HOLES COULD DEVELOP IN THE SKY COVER LIKE WHAT IS
HAPPENING AT THE MOMENT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY STAYED COOLER THAN MAV MOS FOR HIGHS
DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. FOR LOWS STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 232 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A CUT-OFF LOW TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SETTLING OVER THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY...PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
FINALLY ALL SNOW BY WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 190600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1141 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT TO CALM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BASED ON SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND TIME
HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS EXPECT CEILINGS TO BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT LEAST. COULD SEE VFR AFTER THAT FOR
AWHILE BUT UNCERTAINTY IS STILL PRETTY HIGH. KEPT A SCATTERED DECK
AROUND 2500 FT GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COMPLETE CLEARING SEEMS
UNLIKELY. ALSO INCLUDED A FEW HOURS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KBMG
AS THEY HAVE ALREADY SEEN NUMBERS DROP A BIT AND CALM WINDS WILL
NOT BE MIXING ANYTHING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD/JP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 190446
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1146 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REGION.

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMALS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE GREAT PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

0250Z UPDATE...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. FLURRIES ARE
WANING/EXITING THE AREA BUT LEFT IN MENTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. OTHER THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO CURRENT TEMP/DEW POINT AND SKY
COVER TRENDS DID NOT NEED TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS INDIANA INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. RADAR SHOWS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA...QUICKLY MOVING TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBS FAIL TO
SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND.

MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AS SEEN ON THE 290K SURFACE WANES THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTIFUL CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND THE
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS RATHER DIRTY AS MINIMAL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
ONGOING. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS AT
OR BELOW MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS SUGGEST THE
TROUGH ALOFT FLATTENS OUT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL WEAK AND UNORGANIZED SHORT WAVE ALOFT
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM REACHING THE AREA AND AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS SLOWLY TO THE EAST SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMICS APPEAR
RATHER LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM AMID THE DIRTY HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUING TO SHOW TRAPPED LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST INTO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH STEADY STATE TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION...WILL TREND HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE 3 HOURLY TEMPS
AS HEATING WILL BE LIMITED.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AS TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO KEEP PLENTIFUL TRAPPED
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. ADDING TO THE CHANCE FOR CLOUD COVER WILL BE
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AS SOME HIGH MOISTURE
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AGAIN...WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. GIVEN SOME CLOUDS AND STEADY TEMP ADVECTION
WILL TREND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE AND TREND HIGHS
ON SATURDAY NEAR THE 3 HOURLY VALUES.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AMID THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE FOUND WELL TO THE EAST...ALLOWING A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
HIGH SATURATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY
CLOUDY TREND ALONG WARMER LOWS THAN MAV COOLER HIGHS THAN MEX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 232 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A CUT-OFF LOW TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SETTLING OVER THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY...PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
FINALLY ALL SNOW BY WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 190600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1141 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT TO CALM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BASED ON SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND TIME
HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS EXPECT CEILINGS TO BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT LEAST. COULD SEE VFR AFTER THAT FOR
AWHILE BUT UNCERTAINTY IS STILL PRETTY HIGH. KEPT A SCATTERED DECK
AROUND 2500 FT GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COMPLETE CLEARING SEEMS
UNLIKELY. ALSO INCLUDED A FEW HOURS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KBMG
AS THEY HAVE ALREADY SEEN NUMBERS DROP A BIT AND CALM WINDS WILL
NOT BE MIXING ANYTHING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...SMF/PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD/JP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 190446
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1146 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REGION.

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMALS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE GREAT PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

0250Z UPDATE...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. FLURRIES ARE
WANING/EXITING THE AREA BUT LEFT IN MENTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. OTHER THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO CURRENT TEMP/DEW POINT AND SKY
COVER TRENDS DID NOT NEED TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS INDIANA INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. RADAR SHOWS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA...QUICKLY MOVING TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBS FAIL TO
SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND.

MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AS SEEN ON THE 290K SURFACE WANES THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTIFUL CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND THE
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS RATHER DIRTY AS MINIMAL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
ONGOING. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS AT
OR BELOW MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS SUGGEST THE
TROUGH ALOFT FLATTENS OUT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL WEAK AND UNORGANIZED SHORT WAVE ALOFT
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM REACHING THE AREA AND AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS SLOWLY TO THE EAST SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMICS APPEAR
RATHER LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM AMID THE DIRTY HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUING TO SHOW TRAPPED LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST INTO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH STEADY STATE TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION...WILL TREND HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE 3 HOURLY TEMPS
AS HEATING WILL BE LIMITED.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AS TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO KEEP PLENTIFUL TRAPPED
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. ADDING TO THE CHANCE FOR CLOUD COVER WILL BE
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AS SOME HIGH MOISTURE
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AGAIN...WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. GIVEN SOME CLOUDS AND STEADY TEMP ADVECTION
WILL TREND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE AND TREND HIGHS
ON SATURDAY NEAR THE 3 HOURLY VALUES.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AMID THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE FOUND WELL TO THE EAST...ALLOWING A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
HIGH SATURATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY
CLOUDY TREND ALONG WARMER LOWS THAN MAV COOLER HIGHS THAN MEX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 232 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A CUT-OFF LOW TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SETTLING OVER THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY...PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
FINALLY ALL SNOW BY WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 190600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1141 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT TO CALM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BASED ON SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND TIME
HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS EXPECT CEILINGS TO BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT LEAST. COULD SEE VFR AFTER THAT FOR
AWHILE BUT UNCERTAINTY IS STILL PRETTY HIGH. KEPT A SCATTERED DECK
AROUND 2500 FT GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COMPLETE CLEARING SEEMS
UNLIKELY. ALSO INCLUDED A FEW HOURS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KBMG
AS THEY HAVE ALREADY SEEN NUMBERS DROP A BIT AND CALM WINDS WILL
NOT BE MIXING ANYTHING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...SMF/PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD/JP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 190258
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
958 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REGION.

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMALS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE GREAT PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

0250Z UPDATE...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. FLURRIES ARE
WANING/EXITING THE AREA BUT LEFT IN MENTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. OTHER THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO CURRENT TEMP/DEW POINT AND SKY
COVER TRENDS DID NOT NEED TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS INDIANA INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. RADAR SHOWS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA...QUICKLY MOVING TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBS FAIL TO
SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND.

MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AS SEEN ON THE 290K SURFACE WANES THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTIFUL CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND THE
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS RATHER DIRTY AS MINIMAL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
ONGOING. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS AT
OR BELOW MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS SUGGEST THE
TROUGH ALOFT FLATTENS OUT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL WEAK AND UNORGANIZED SHORT WAVE ALOFT
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM REACHING THE AREA AND AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS SLOWLY TO THE EAST SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMICS APPEAR
RATHER LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM AMID THE DIRTY HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUING TO SHOW TRAPPED LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST INTO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH STEADY STATE TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION...WILL TREND HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE 3 HOURLY TEMPS
AS HEATING WILL BE LIMITED.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AS TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO KEEP PLENTIFUL TRAPPED
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. ADDING TO THE CHANCE FOR CLOUD COVER WILL BE
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AS SOME HIGH MOISTURE
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AGAIN...WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. GIVEN SOME CLOUDS AND STEADY TEMP ADVECTION
WILL TREND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE AND TREND HIGHS
ON SATURDAY NEAR THE 3 HOURLY VALUES.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AMID THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE FOUND WELL TO THE EAST...ALLOWING A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
HIGH SATURATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY
CLOUDY TREND ALONG WARMER LOWS THAN MAV COOLER HIGHS THAN MEX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 232 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A CUT-OFF LOW TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SETTLING OVER THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY...PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
FINALLY ALL SNOW BY WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 190300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 922 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

CEILINGS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR SO WENT WITH A
TEMPO GROUP AT KIND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS INDICATING THE
VARIABILITY WITH THE UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SITES WILL START OUT WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS BUT COULD BOUNCE
BETWEEN THAT AND VFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR
TRIES TO WORK INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE BUT THE INVERSION FROM THE HIGH CONTINUES TO TRAP THE
LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL PROBABLY SEE DECKS SCATTER
HIGHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS EXPECT AT
LEAST A SCATTERED LOWER LEVEL DECK TO FORM AGAIN DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY BUT STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER COVERAGE WILL GO TO BROKEN SO
WILL JUST INCLUDE SCT FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 5 KTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...SMF/PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD/JP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 190258
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
958 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REGION.

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMALS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE GREAT PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

0250Z UPDATE...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. FLURRIES ARE
WANING/EXITING THE AREA BUT LEFT IN MENTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. OTHER THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO CURRENT TEMP/DEW POINT AND SKY
COVER TRENDS DID NOT NEED TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS INDIANA INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. RADAR SHOWS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA...QUICKLY MOVING TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBS FAIL TO
SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND.

MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AS SEEN ON THE 290K SURFACE WANES THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTIFUL CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND THE
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS RATHER DIRTY AS MINIMAL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
ONGOING. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS AT
OR BELOW MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS SUGGEST THE
TROUGH ALOFT FLATTENS OUT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL WEAK AND UNORGANIZED SHORT WAVE ALOFT
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM REACHING THE AREA AND AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS SLOWLY TO THE EAST SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMICS APPEAR
RATHER LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM AMID THE DIRTY HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUING TO SHOW TRAPPED LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST INTO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH STEADY STATE TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION...WILL TREND HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE 3 HOURLY TEMPS
AS HEATING WILL BE LIMITED.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AS TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO KEEP PLENTIFUL TRAPPED
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. ADDING TO THE CHANCE FOR CLOUD COVER WILL BE
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AS SOME HIGH MOISTURE
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AGAIN...WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. GIVEN SOME CLOUDS AND STEADY TEMP ADVECTION
WILL TREND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE AND TREND HIGHS
ON SATURDAY NEAR THE 3 HOURLY VALUES.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AMID THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE FOUND WELL TO THE EAST...ALLOWING A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
HIGH SATURATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY
CLOUDY TREND ALONG WARMER LOWS THAN MAV COOLER HIGHS THAN MEX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 232 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A CUT-OFF LOW TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SETTLING OVER THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY...PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
FINALLY ALL SNOW BY WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 190300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 922 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

CEILINGS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR SO WENT WITH A
TEMPO GROUP AT KIND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS INDICATING THE
VARIABILITY WITH THE UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SITES WILL START OUT WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS BUT COULD BOUNCE
BETWEEN THAT AND VFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR
TRIES TO WORK INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE BUT THE INVERSION FROM THE HIGH CONTINUES TO TRAP THE
LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL PROBABLY SEE DECKS SCATTER
HIGHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS EXPECT AT
LEAST A SCATTERED LOWER LEVEL DECK TO FORM AGAIN DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY BUT STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER COVERAGE WILL GO TO BROKEN SO
WILL JUST INCLUDE SCT FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 5 KTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...SMF/PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD/JP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 190222
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
922 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REGION.

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMALS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE GREAT PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS INDIANA INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. RADAR SHOWS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA...QUICKLY MOVING TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBS FAIL TO
SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND.

MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AS SEEN ON THE 290K SURFACE WANES THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTIFUL CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND THE
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS RATHER DIRTY AS MINIMAL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
ONGOING. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS AT
OR BELOW MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS SUGGEST THE
TROUGH ALOFT FLATTENS OUT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL WEAK AND UNORGANIZED SHORT WAVE ALOFT
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM REACHING THE AREA AND AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS SLOWLY TO THE EAST SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMICS APPEAR
RATHER LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM AMID THE DIRTY HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUING TO SHOW TRAPPED LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST INTO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH STEADY STATE TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION...WILL TREND HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE 3 HOURLY TEMPS
AS HEATING WILL BE LIMITED.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AS TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO KEEP PLENTIFUL TRAPPED
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. ADDING TO THE CHANCE FOR CLOUD COVER WILL BE
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AS SOME HIGH MOISTURE
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AGAIN...WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. GIVEN SOME CLOUDS AND STEADY TEMP ADVECTION
WILL TREND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE AND TREND HIGHS
ON SATURDAY NEAR THE 3 HOURLY VALUES.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AMID THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE FOUND WELL TO THE EAST...ALLOWING A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
HIGH SATURATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY
CLOUDY TREND ALONG WARMER LOWS THAN MAV COOLER HIGHS THAN MEX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 232 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A CUT-OFF LOW TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SETTLING OVER THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY...PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
FINALLY ALL SNOW BY WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 190300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 922 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

CEILINGS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR SO WENT WITH A
TEMPO GROUP AT KIND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS INDICATING THE
VARIABILITY WITH THE UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SITES WILL START OUT WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS BUT COULD BOUNCE
BETWEEN THAT AND VFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR
TRIES TO WORK INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE BUT THE INVERSION FROM THE HIGH CONTINUES TO TRAP THE
LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL PROBABLY SEE DECKS SCATTER
HIGHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS EXPECT AT
LEAST A SCATTERED LOWER LEVEL DECK TO FORM AGAIN DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY BUT STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER COVERAGE WILL GO TO BROKEN SO
WILL JUST INCLUDE SCT FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 5 KTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD/JP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 190222
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
922 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REGION.

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMALS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE GREAT PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS INDIANA INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. RADAR SHOWS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA...QUICKLY MOVING TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBS FAIL TO
SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND.

MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AS SEEN ON THE 290K SURFACE WANES THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTIFUL CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND THE
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS RATHER DIRTY AS MINIMAL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
ONGOING. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS AT
OR BELOW MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS SUGGEST THE
TROUGH ALOFT FLATTENS OUT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL WEAK AND UNORGANIZED SHORT WAVE ALOFT
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM REACHING THE AREA AND AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS SLOWLY TO THE EAST SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMICS APPEAR
RATHER LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM AMID THE DIRTY HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUING TO SHOW TRAPPED LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST INTO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH STEADY STATE TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION...WILL TREND HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE 3 HOURLY TEMPS
AS HEATING WILL BE LIMITED.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AS TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO KEEP PLENTIFUL TRAPPED
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. ADDING TO THE CHANCE FOR CLOUD COVER WILL BE
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AS SOME HIGH MOISTURE
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AGAIN...WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. GIVEN SOME CLOUDS AND STEADY TEMP ADVECTION
WILL TREND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE AND TREND HIGHS
ON SATURDAY NEAR THE 3 HOURLY VALUES.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AMID THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE FOUND WELL TO THE EAST...ALLOWING A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
HIGH SATURATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY
CLOUDY TREND ALONG WARMER LOWS THAN MAV COOLER HIGHS THAN MEX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 232 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A CUT-OFF LOW TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SETTLING OVER THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY...PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
FINALLY ALL SNOW BY WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 190300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 922 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

CEILINGS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR SO WENT WITH A
TEMPO GROUP AT KIND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS INDICATING THE
VARIABILITY WITH THE UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SITES WILL START OUT WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS BUT COULD BOUNCE
BETWEEN THAT AND VFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR
TRIES TO WORK INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE BUT THE INVERSION FROM THE HIGH CONTINUES TO TRAP THE
LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL PROBABLY SEE DECKS SCATTER
HIGHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS EXPECT AT
LEAST A SCATTERED LOWER LEVEL DECK TO FORM AGAIN DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY BUT STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER COVERAGE WILL GO TO BROKEN SO
WILL JUST INCLUDE SCT FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 5 KTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD/JP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 182251
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
551 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REGION.

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMALS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE GREAT PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS INDIANA INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. RADAR SHOWS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA...QUICKLY MOVING TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBS FAIL TO
SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND.

MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AS SEEN ON THE 290K SURFACE WANES THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTIFUL CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND THE
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS RATHER DIRTY AS MINIMAL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
ONGOING. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS AT
OR BELOW MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS SUGGEST THE
TROUGH ALOFT FLATTENS OUT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL WEAK AND UNORGANIZED SHORT WAVE ALOFT
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM REACHING THE AREA AND AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS SLOWLY TO THE EAST SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMICS APPEAR
RATHER LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM AMID THE DIRTY HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUING TO SHOW TRAPPED LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST INTO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH STEADY STATE TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION...WILL TREND HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE 3 HOURLY TEMPS
AS HEATING WILL BE LIMITED.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AS TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO KEEP PLENTIFUL TRAPPED
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. ADDING TO THE CHANCE FOR CLOUD COVER WILL BE
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AS SOME HIGH MOISTURE
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AGAIN...WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. GIVEN SOME CLOUDS AND STEADY TEMP ADVECTION
WILL TREND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE AND TREND HIGHS
ON SATURDAY NEAR THE 3 HOURLY VALUES.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AMID THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE FOUND WELL TO THE EAST...ALLOWING A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
HIGH SATURATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY
CLOUDY TREND ALONG WARMER LOWS THAN MAV COOLER HIGHS THAN MEX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 232 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A CUT-OFF LOW TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SETTLING OVER THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY...PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
FINALLY ALL SNOW BY WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 190000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 545 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

SITES WILL START OUT WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS BUT COULD BOUNCE
BETWEEN THAT AND VFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR
TRIES TO WORK INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE BUT THE INVERSION FROM THE HIGH CONTINUES TO TRAP THE
LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL PROBABLY SEE DECKS SCATTER
HIGHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS EXPECT AT
LEAST A SCATTERED LOWER LEVEL DECK TO FORM AGAIN DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY BUT STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER COVERAGE WILL GO TO BROKEN SO
WILL JUST INCLUDE SCT FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 5 KTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD/JP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 182041
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
341 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REGION.

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMALS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE GREAT PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS INDIANA INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. RADAR SHOWS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA...QUICKLY MOVING TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBS FAIL TO
SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND.

MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AS SEEN ON THE 290K SURFACE WANES THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTIFUL CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND THE
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS RATHER DIRTY AS MINIMAL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
ONGOING. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS AT
OR BELOW MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS SUGGEST THE
TROUGH ALOFT FLATTENS OUT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL WEAK AND UNORGANIZED SHORT WAVE ALOFT
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM REACHING THE AREA AND AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS SLOWLY TO THE EAST SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMICS APPEAR
RATHER LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM AMID THE DIRTY HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUING TO SHOW TRAPPED LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST INTO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH STEADY STATE TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION...WILL TREND HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE 3 HOURLY TEMPS
AS HEATING WILL BE LIMITED.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AS TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO KEEP PLENTIFUL TRAPPED
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. ADDING TO THE CHANCE FOR CLOUD COVER WILL BE
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AS SOME HIGH MOISTURE
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AGAIN...WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. GIVEN SOME CLOUDS AND STEADY TEMP ADVECTION
WILL TREND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE AND TREND HIGHS
ON SATURDAY NEAR THE 3 HOURLY VALUES.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AMID THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE FOUND WELL TO THE EAST...ALLOWING A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
HIGH SATURATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY
CLOUDY TREND ALONG WARMER LOWS THAN MAV COOLER HIGHS THAN MEX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 232 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A CUT-OFF LOW TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SETTLING OVER THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY...PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
FINALLY ALL SNOW BY WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 182100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ONGOING TAF IN VERY GOOD SHAPE. MVFR WILL CONTINUE.

SHORT WAVE EXITING INDIANA AND -SHSN/--SHSN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
AS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROGRESS. WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS IN
PLACE ACROSS TAF SITES AS PLENTIFUL CLOUDS REMAIN UPSTREAM ALONG
WITH ONGOING MILD COLD AIR ADVECTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE MVFR/VFR MARK INTO
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE LEANING TOWARD DRIER
CONDITIONS AT ALL LEVELS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SO...ANTICIPATE
SCATTERING SOME TIME BETWEEN FRI 09-15Z...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN
TAFS. AT THAT POINT...VFR SHOULD BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD/JP
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 182041
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
341 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REGION.

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMALS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE GREAT PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS INDIANA INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. RADAR SHOWS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA...QUICKLY MOVING TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBS FAIL TO
SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND.

MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AS SEEN ON THE 290K SURFACE WANES THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTIFUL CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND THE
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS RATHER DIRTY AS MINIMAL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
ONGOING. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS AT
OR BELOW MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS SUGGEST THE
TROUGH ALOFT FLATTENS OUT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL WEAK AND UNORGANIZED SHORT WAVE ALOFT
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM REACHING THE AREA AND AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS SLOWLY TO THE EAST SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMICS APPEAR
RATHER LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM AMID THE DIRTY HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUING TO SHOW TRAPPED LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST INTO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH STEADY STATE TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION...WILL TREND HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE 3 HOURLY TEMPS
AS HEATING WILL BE LIMITED.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AS TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO KEEP PLENTIFUL TRAPPED
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. ADDING TO THE CHANCE FOR CLOUD COVER WILL BE
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AS SOME HIGH MOISTURE
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AGAIN...WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. GIVEN SOME CLOUDS AND STEADY TEMP ADVECTION
WILL TREND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE AND TREND HIGHS
ON SATURDAY NEAR THE 3 HOURLY VALUES.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AMID THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE FOUND WELL TO THE EAST...ALLOWING A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
HIGH SATURATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY
CLOUDY TREND ALONG WARMER LOWS THAN MAV COOLER HIGHS THAN MEX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 232 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A CUT-OFF LOW TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SETTLING OVER THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY...PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
FINALLY ALL SNOW BY WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 182100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ONGOING TAF IN VERY GOOD SHAPE. MVFR WILL CONTINUE.

SHORT WAVE EXITING INDIANA AND -SHSN/--SHSN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
AS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROGRESS. WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS IN
PLACE ACROSS TAF SITES AS PLENTIFUL CLOUDS REMAIN UPSTREAM ALONG
WITH ONGOING MILD COLD AIR ADVECTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE MVFR/VFR MARK INTO
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE LEANING TOWARD DRIER
CONDITIONS AT ALL LEVELS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SO...ANTICIPATE
SCATTERING SOME TIME BETWEEN FRI 09-15Z...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN
TAFS. AT THAT POINT...VFR SHOULD BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD/JP
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 181945
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
245 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REGION.

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMALS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE GREAT PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS INDIANA INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. RADAR SHOWS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA...QUICKLY MOVING TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBS FAIL TO
SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND.

MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AS SEEN ON THE 290K SURFACE WANES THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTIFUL CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND THE
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS RATHER DIRTY AS MINIMAL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
ONGOING. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS AT
OR BELOW MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS SUGGEST THE
TROUGH ALOFT FLATTENS OUT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL WEAK AND UNORGANIZED SHORT WAVE ALOFT
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM REACHING THE AREA AND AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS SLOWLY TO THE EAST SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMICS APPEAR
RATHER LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM AMID THE DIRTY HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUING TO SHOW TRAPPED LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST INTO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH STEADY STATE TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION...WILL TREND HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE 3 HOURLY TEMPS
AS HEATING WILL BE LIMITED.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AS TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO KEEP PLENTIFUL TRAPPED
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. ADDING TO THE CHANCE FOR CLOUD COVER WILL BE
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AS SOME HIGH MOISTURE
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AGAIN...WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. GIVEN SOME CLOUDS AND STEADY TEMP ADVECTION
WILL TREND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE AND TREND HIGHS
ON SATURDAY NEAR THE 3 HOURLY VALUES.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AMID THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE FOUND WELL TO THE EAST...ALLOWING A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
HIGH SATURATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY
CLOUDY TREND ALONG WARMER LOWS THAN MAV COOLER HIGHS THAN MEX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 232 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A CUT-OFF LOW TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SETTLING OVER THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY...PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
FINALLY ALL SNOW BY WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE MVFR/VFR MARK INTO
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE LEANING TOWARD DRIER
CONDITIONS AT ALL LEVELS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SO...ANTICIPATE
SCATTERING SOME TIME BETWEEN FRI 09-15Z...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN
TAFS. AT THAT POINT...VFR SHOULD BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 181917
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REGION.

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMALS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE GREAT PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS INDIANA INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. RADAR SHOWS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA...QUICKLY MOVING TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBS FAIL TO
SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND.

MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AS SEEN ON THE 290K SURFACE WANES THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTIFUL CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND THE
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS RATHER DIRTY AS MINIMAL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
ONGOING. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS AT
OR BELOW MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS SUGGEST THE
TROUGH ALOFT FLATTENS OUT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL WEAK AND UNORGANIZED SHORT WAVE ALOFT
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM REACHING THE AREA AND AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS SLOWLY TO THE EAST SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMICS APPEAR
RATHER LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM AMID THE DIRTY HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUING TO SHOW TRAPPED LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST INTO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH STEADY STATE TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION...WILL TREND HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE 3 HOURLY TEMPS
AS HEATING WILL BE LIMITED.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AS TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO KEEP PLENTIFUL TRAPPED
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. ADDING TO THE CHANCE FOR CLOUD COVER WILL BE
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AS SOME HIGH MOISTURE
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AGAIN...WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. GIVEN SOME CLOUDS AND STEADY TEMP ADVECTION
WILL TREND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE AND TREND HIGHS
ON SATURDAY NEAR THE 3 HOURLY VALUES.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AMID THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE FOUND WELL TO THE EAST...ALLOWING A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
HIGH SATURATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY
CLOUDY TREND ALONG WARMER LOWS THAN MAV COOLER HIGHS THAN MEX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT STRONG PACIFIC JET...ARCING
OVER A HIGH AMPLITUDE WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE...WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN AN UPPER TROUGH CLOSING INTO AN UPPER LOW AND
INTENSIFYING INTO A VERY STRONG SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS. MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR OFF
REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO A BLEND OF THE
FURTHER NORTH 00Z GFS AND FURTHER SOUTH 12Z ECMWF LOOKS GOOD.

00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA OR NORTHWESTERN IOWA AT 00Z TUESDAY WITH BROAD AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AND OPEN THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF RESULTING IN DEEPENING
MOISTURE TO GO ALONG WITH THE UPPER FORCING. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO
THE AREA BY MONDAY AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR
RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIR...UPPER IMPULSES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING STACKED LOW THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO QUEBEC EARLY CHRISTMAS.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY
CHRISTMAS EVE.

00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM THIS WEEKEND.
STRONGLY PREFER THE COOLER 00Z DECEMBER 17 EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE MVFR/VFR MARK INTO
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE LEANING TOWARD DRIER
CONDITIONS AT ALL LEVELS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SO...ANTICIPATE
SCATTERING SOME TIME BETWEEN FRI 09-15Z...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN
TAFS. AT THAT POINT...VFR SHOULD BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 181917
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REGION.

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMALS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE GREAT PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS INDIANA INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. RADAR SHOWS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA...QUICKLY MOVING TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBS FAIL TO
SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND.

MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AS SEEN ON THE 290K SURFACE WANES THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTIFUL CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND THE
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS RATHER DIRTY AS MINIMAL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
ONGOING. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS AT
OR BELOW MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS SUGGEST THE
TROUGH ALOFT FLATTENS OUT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL WEAK AND UNORGANIZED SHORT WAVE ALOFT
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM REACHING THE AREA AND AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS SLOWLY TO THE EAST SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMICS APPEAR
RATHER LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM AMID THE DIRTY HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUING TO SHOW TRAPPED LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST INTO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH STEADY STATE TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION...WILL TREND HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE 3 HOURLY TEMPS
AS HEATING WILL BE LIMITED.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AS TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO KEEP PLENTIFUL TRAPPED
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. ADDING TO THE CHANCE FOR CLOUD COVER WILL BE
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AS SOME HIGH MOISTURE
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AGAIN...WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. GIVEN SOME CLOUDS AND STEADY TEMP ADVECTION
WILL TREND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE AND TREND HIGHS
ON SATURDAY NEAR THE 3 HOURLY VALUES.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AMID THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE FOUND WELL TO THE EAST...ALLOWING A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
HIGH SATURATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY
CLOUDY TREND ALONG WARMER LOWS THAN MAV COOLER HIGHS THAN MEX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT STRONG PACIFIC JET...ARCING
OVER A HIGH AMPLITUDE WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE...WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN AN UPPER TROUGH CLOSING INTO AN UPPER LOW AND
INTENSIFYING INTO A VERY STRONG SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS. MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR OFF
REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO A BLEND OF THE
FURTHER NORTH 00Z GFS AND FURTHER SOUTH 12Z ECMWF LOOKS GOOD.

00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA OR NORTHWESTERN IOWA AT 00Z TUESDAY WITH BROAD AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AND OPEN THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF RESULTING IN DEEPENING
MOISTURE TO GO ALONG WITH THE UPPER FORCING. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO
THE AREA BY MONDAY AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR
RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIR...UPPER IMPULSES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING STACKED LOW THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO QUEBEC EARLY CHRISTMAS.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY
CHRISTMAS EVE.

00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM THIS WEEKEND.
STRONGLY PREFER THE COOLER 00Z DECEMBER 17 EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE MVFR/VFR MARK INTO
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE LEANING TOWARD DRIER
CONDITIONS AT ALL LEVELS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SO...ANTICIPATE
SCATTERING SOME TIME BETWEEN FRI 09-15Z...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN
TAFS. AT THAT POINT...VFR SHOULD BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 181728
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1228 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
THE GULF COAST STATES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE END OF
WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 956 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE OHIO VALLEY. RADAR RETURNS SHOW
ECHO ALOFT OVE MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOUIS...HOWEVER SURFACE OBS
ONLY REPORT SN FALLING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HRRR TENDS TO
KEEP THE ONGOING PRECIP SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND WANES THE
ONGOING PRECIP OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS. ATTM...THE HRRR DOESN/T
APPEAR HANDLE THE ONGOING SITUTAION WELL. GFS 285K ISENTROPIC
SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE ACROSS MISSOURI...HELPING THE ONGOING
SNOW THERE. THIS FEAUTRE HOWEVER DOES NOT TRANSLATE WELL TO
CENTRAL INDIANA AS MODELS SUGGEST THE ISENTROPIC LIFT FAILS TO
REACH INDIANA. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST GOOD MID
AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. CONFIDNECE
REMAINS LOW IN THIS EVENT...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. FOR NOW HAVE
ADDED SLIGHT CHC POPS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. WILL BE QUICK TO UPDATE SHOULD
ECHOS OVER ILLINOIS HOLD TOGETHER AND PRECIP BEGINS TO REACH THE
GROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MODEL DATA SUGGEST THERE MAY STILL SOME REMNANT ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY/S
DISTURBANCE...SO WILL EXTEND THE FLURRY MENTION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A SPLIT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BREAKS DOWN. A SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES...WHILE A DRIER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT TIED UP IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AND WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLES
THAT DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH FOR A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW AND
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THOSE PERIODS OVER ABOUT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE GFS MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT STRONG PACIFIC JET...ARCING
OVER A HIGH AMPLITUDE WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE...WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN AN UPPER TROUGH CLOSING INTO AN UPPER LOW AND
INTENSIFYING INTO A VERY STRONG SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS. MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR OFF
REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO A BLEND OF THE
FURTHER NORTH 00Z GFS AND FURTHER SOUTH 12Z ECMWF LOOKS GOOD.

00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA OR NORTHWESTERN IOWA AT 00Z TUESDAY WITH BROAD AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AND OPEN THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF RESULTING IN DEEPENING
MOISTURE TO GO ALONG WITH THE UPPER FORCING. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO
THE AREA BY MONDAY AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR
RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIR...UPPER IMPULSES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING STACKED LOW THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO QUEBEC EARLY CHRISTMAS.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY
CHRISTMAS EVE.

00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM THIS WEEKEND.
STRONGLY PREFER THE COOLER 00Z DECEMBER 17 EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE MVFR/VFR MARK INTO
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE LEANING TOWARD DRIER
CONDITIONS AT ALL LEVELS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SO...ANTICIPATE
SCATTERING SOME TIME BETWEEN FRI 09-15Z...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN
TAFS. AT THAT POINT...VFR SHOULD BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 181728
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1228 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
THE GULF COAST STATES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE END OF
WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 956 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE OHIO VALLEY. RADAR RETURNS SHOW
ECHO ALOFT OVE MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOUIS...HOWEVER SURFACE OBS
ONLY REPORT SN FALLING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HRRR TENDS TO
KEEP THE ONGOING PRECIP SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND WANES THE
ONGOING PRECIP OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS. ATTM...THE HRRR DOESN/T
APPEAR HANDLE THE ONGOING SITUTAION WELL. GFS 285K ISENTROPIC
SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE ACROSS MISSOURI...HELPING THE ONGOING
SNOW THERE. THIS FEAUTRE HOWEVER DOES NOT TRANSLATE WELL TO
CENTRAL INDIANA AS MODELS SUGGEST THE ISENTROPIC LIFT FAILS TO
REACH INDIANA. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST GOOD MID
AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. CONFIDNECE
REMAINS LOW IN THIS EVENT...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. FOR NOW HAVE
ADDED SLIGHT CHC POPS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. WILL BE QUICK TO UPDATE SHOULD
ECHOS OVER ILLINOIS HOLD TOGETHER AND PRECIP BEGINS TO REACH THE
GROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MODEL DATA SUGGEST THERE MAY STILL SOME REMNANT ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY/S
DISTURBANCE...SO WILL EXTEND THE FLURRY MENTION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A SPLIT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BREAKS DOWN. A SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES...WHILE A DRIER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT TIED UP IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AND WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLES
THAT DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH FOR A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW AND
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THOSE PERIODS OVER ABOUT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE GFS MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT STRONG PACIFIC JET...ARCING
OVER A HIGH AMPLITUDE WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE...WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN AN UPPER TROUGH CLOSING INTO AN UPPER LOW AND
INTENSIFYING INTO A VERY STRONG SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS. MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR OFF
REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO A BLEND OF THE
FURTHER NORTH 00Z GFS AND FURTHER SOUTH 12Z ECMWF LOOKS GOOD.

00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA OR NORTHWESTERN IOWA AT 00Z TUESDAY WITH BROAD AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AND OPEN THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF RESULTING IN DEEPENING
MOISTURE TO GO ALONG WITH THE UPPER FORCING. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO
THE AREA BY MONDAY AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR
RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIR...UPPER IMPULSES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING STACKED LOW THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO QUEBEC EARLY CHRISTMAS.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY
CHRISTMAS EVE.

00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM THIS WEEKEND.
STRONGLY PREFER THE COOLER 00Z DECEMBER 17 EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE MVFR/VFR MARK INTO
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE LEANING TOWARD DRIER
CONDITIONS AT ALL LEVELS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SO...ANTICIPATE
SCATTERING SOME TIME BETWEEN FRI 09-15Z...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN
TAFS. AT THAT POINT...VFR SHOULD BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 181457
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
957 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
THE GULF COAST STATES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE END OF
WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 956 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE OHIO VALLEY. RADAR RETURNS SHOW
ECHO ALOFT OVE MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOUIS...HOWEVER SURFACE OBS
ONLY REPORT SN FALLING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HRRR TENDS TO
KEEP THE ONGOING PRECIP SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND WANES THE
ONGOING PRECIP OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS. ATTM...THE HRRR DOESN/T
APPEAR HANDLE THE ONGOING SITUTAION WELL. GFS 285K ISENTROPIC
SURFACE SHOWS GOOD UPGLIDE ACROSS MISSOURI...HELPING THE ONGOING
SNOW THERE. THIS FEAUTRE HOWEVER DOES NOT TRANSLATE WELL TO
CENTRAL INDIANA AS MODELS SUGGEST THE ISENTROPIC LIFT FAILS TO
REACH INDIANA. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST GOOD MID
AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. CONFIDNECE
REMAINS LOW IN THIS EVENT...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. FOR NOW HAVE
ADDED SLIGHT CHC POPS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. WILL BE QUICK TO UPDATE SHOULD
ECHOS OVER ILLINOIS HOLD TOGETHER AND PRECIP BEGINS TO REACH THE
GROUND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MODEL DATA SUGGEST THERE MAY STILL SOME REMNANT ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY/S
DISTURBANCE...SO WILL EXTEND THE FLURRY MENTION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A SPLIT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BREAKS DOWN. A SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES...WHILE A DRIER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT TIED UP IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AND WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLES
THAT DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH FOR A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW AND
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THOSE PERIODS OVER ABOUT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE GFS MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT STRONG PACIFIC JET...ARCING
OVER A HIGH AMPLITUDE WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE...WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN AN UPPER TROUGH CLOSING INTO AN UPPER LOW AND
INTENSIFYING INTO A VERY STRONG SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS. MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR OFF
REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO A BLEND OF THE
FURTHER NORTH 00Z GFS AND FURTHER SOUTH 12Z ECMWF LOOKS GOOD.

00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA OR NORTHWESTERN IOWA AT 00Z TUESDAY WITH BROAD AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AND OPEN THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF RESULTING IN DEEPENING
MOISTURE TO GO ALONG WITH THE UPPER FORCING. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO
THE AREA BY MONDAY AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR
RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIR...UPPER IMPULSES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING STACKED LOW THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO QUEBEC EARLY CHRISTMAS.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY
CHRISTMAS EVE.

00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM THIS WEEKEND.
STRONGLY PREFER THE COOLER 00Z DECEMBER 17 EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 907 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATE...
NO FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THINK CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY BE
VFR...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR AT TIMES.

WINDS WILL BE 5 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGHOUT UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 181410
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
910 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
THE GULF COAST STATES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE END OF
WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE CAUSING SOME SNOW OVER THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DAMPEN
OUT UNDER THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY. LIFT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER NEARLY SATURATES. THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR UNDER THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO
THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A FLURRY/TRACE EVENT AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE
FINER SCALE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LIFT
THIS AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE FLURRY MENTION AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS AS THE DAY GOES
BY.

GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY LOOK A
LITTLE WARM. WILL NUDGE THE HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MODEL DATA SUGGEST THERE MAY STILL SOME REMNANT ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY/S
DISTURBANCE...SO WILL EXTEND THE FLURRY MENTION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A SPLIT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BREAKS DOWN. A SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES...WHILE A DRIER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT TIED UP IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AND WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLES
THAT DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH FOR A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW AND
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THOSE PERIODS OVER ABOUT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE GFS MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT STRONG PACIFIC JET...ARCING
OVER A HIGH AMPLITUDE WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE...WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN AN UPPER TROUGH CLOSING INTO AN UPPER LOW AND
INTENSIFYING INTO A VERY STRONG SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS. MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR OFF
REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO A BLEND OF THE
FURTHER NORTH 00Z GFS AND FURTHER SOUTH 12Z ECMWF LOOKS GOOD.

00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA OR NORTHWESTERN IOWA AT 00Z TUESDAY WITH BROAD AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AND OPEN THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF RESULTING IN DEEPENING
MOISTURE TO GO ALONG WITH THE UPPER FORCING. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO
THE AREA BY MONDAY AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR
RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIR...UPPER IMPULSES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING STACKED LOW THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO QUEBEC EARLY CHRISTMAS.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY
CHRISTMAS EVE.

00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM THIS WEEKEND.
STRONGLY PREFER THE COOLER 00Z DECEMBER 17 EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 907 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATE...
NO FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THINK CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY BE
VFR...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR AT TIMES.

WINDS WILL BE 5 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGHOUT UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 181410
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
910 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
THE GULF COAST STATES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE END OF
WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE CAUSING SOME SNOW OVER THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DAMPEN
OUT UNDER THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY. LIFT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER NEARLY SATURATES. THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR UNDER THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO
THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A FLURRY/TRACE EVENT AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE
FINER SCALE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LIFT
THIS AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE FLURRY MENTION AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS AS THE DAY GOES
BY.

GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY LOOK A
LITTLE WARM. WILL NUDGE THE HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MODEL DATA SUGGEST THERE MAY STILL SOME REMNANT ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY/S
DISTURBANCE...SO WILL EXTEND THE FLURRY MENTION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A SPLIT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BREAKS DOWN. A SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES...WHILE A DRIER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT TIED UP IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AND WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLES
THAT DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH FOR A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW AND
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THOSE PERIODS OVER ABOUT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE GFS MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT STRONG PACIFIC JET...ARCING
OVER A HIGH AMPLITUDE WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE...WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN AN UPPER TROUGH CLOSING INTO AN UPPER LOW AND
INTENSIFYING INTO A VERY STRONG SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS. MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR OFF
REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO A BLEND OF THE
FURTHER NORTH 00Z GFS AND FURTHER SOUTH 12Z ECMWF LOOKS GOOD.

00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA OR NORTHWESTERN IOWA AT 00Z TUESDAY WITH BROAD AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AND OPEN THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF RESULTING IN DEEPENING
MOISTURE TO GO ALONG WITH THE UPPER FORCING. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO
THE AREA BY MONDAY AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR
RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIR...UPPER IMPULSES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING STACKED LOW THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO QUEBEC EARLY CHRISTMAS.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY
CHRISTMAS EVE.

00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM THIS WEEKEND.
STRONGLY PREFER THE COOLER 00Z DECEMBER 17 EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 907 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATE...
NO FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THINK CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY BE
VFR...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR AT TIMES.

WINDS WILL BE 5 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGHOUT UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 181410
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
910 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
THE GULF COAST STATES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE END OF
WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE CAUSING SOME SNOW OVER THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DAMPEN
OUT UNDER THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY. LIFT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER NEARLY SATURATES. THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR UNDER THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO
THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A FLURRY/TRACE EVENT AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE
FINER SCALE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LIFT
THIS AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE FLURRY MENTION AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS AS THE DAY GOES
BY.

GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY LOOK A
LITTLE WARM. WILL NUDGE THE HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MODEL DATA SUGGEST THERE MAY STILL SOME REMNANT ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY/S
DISTURBANCE...SO WILL EXTEND THE FLURRY MENTION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A SPLIT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BREAKS DOWN. A SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES...WHILE A DRIER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT TIED UP IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AND WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLES
THAT DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH FOR A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW AND
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THOSE PERIODS OVER ABOUT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE GFS MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT STRONG PACIFIC JET...ARCING
OVER A HIGH AMPLITUDE WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE...WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN AN UPPER TROUGH CLOSING INTO AN UPPER LOW AND
INTENSIFYING INTO A VERY STRONG SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS. MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR OFF
REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO A BLEND OF THE
FURTHER NORTH 00Z GFS AND FURTHER SOUTH 12Z ECMWF LOOKS GOOD.

00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA OR NORTHWESTERN IOWA AT 00Z TUESDAY WITH BROAD AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AND OPEN THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF RESULTING IN DEEPENING
MOISTURE TO GO ALONG WITH THE UPPER FORCING. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO
THE AREA BY MONDAY AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR
RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIR...UPPER IMPULSES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING STACKED LOW THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO QUEBEC EARLY CHRISTMAS.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY
CHRISTMAS EVE.

00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM THIS WEEKEND.
STRONGLY PREFER THE COOLER 00Z DECEMBER 17 EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 907 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATE...
NO FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THINK CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY BE
VFR...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR AT TIMES.

WINDS WILL BE 5 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGHOUT UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 181410
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
910 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
THE GULF COAST STATES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE END OF
WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE CAUSING SOME SNOW OVER THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DAMPEN
OUT UNDER THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY. LIFT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER NEARLY SATURATES. THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR UNDER THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO
THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A FLURRY/TRACE EVENT AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE
FINER SCALE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LIFT
THIS AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE FLURRY MENTION AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS AS THE DAY GOES
BY.

GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY LOOK A
LITTLE WARM. WILL NUDGE THE HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MODEL DATA SUGGEST THERE MAY STILL SOME REMNANT ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY/S
DISTURBANCE...SO WILL EXTEND THE FLURRY MENTION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A SPLIT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BREAKS DOWN. A SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES...WHILE A DRIER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT TIED UP IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AND WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLES
THAT DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH FOR A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW AND
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THOSE PERIODS OVER ABOUT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE GFS MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT STRONG PACIFIC JET...ARCING
OVER A HIGH AMPLITUDE WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE...WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN AN UPPER TROUGH CLOSING INTO AN UPPER LOW AND
INTENSIFYING INTO A VERY STRONG SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS. MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR OFF
REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO A BLEND OF THE
FURTHER NORTH 00Z GFS AND FURTHER SOUTH 12Z ECMWF LOOKS GOOD.

00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA OR NORTHWESTERN IOWA AT 00Z TUESDAY WITH BROAD AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AND OPEN THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF RESULTING IN DEEPENING
MOISTURE TO GO ALONG WITH THE UPPER FORCING. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO
THE AREA BY MONDAY AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR
RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIR...UPPER IMPULSES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING STACKED LOW THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO QUEBEC EARLY CHRISTMAS.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY
CHRISTMAS EVE.

00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM THIS WEEKEND.
STRONGLY PREFER THE COOLER 00Z DECEMBER 17 EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 907 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATE...
NO FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THINK CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY BE
VFR...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR AT TIMES.

WINDS WILL BE 5 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGHOUT UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 181027
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
527 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
THE GULF COAST STATES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE END OF
WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE CAUSING SOME SNOW OVER THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DAMPEN
OUT UNDER THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY. LIFT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER NEARLY SATURATES. THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR UNDER THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO
THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A FLURRY/TRACE EVENT AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE
FINER SCALE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LIFT
THIS AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE FLURRY MENTION AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS AS THE DAY GOES
BY.

GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY LOOK A
LITTLE WARM. WILL NUDGE THE HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MODEL DATA SUGGEST THERE MAY STILL SOME REMNANT ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY/S
DISTURBANCE...SO WILL EXTEND THE FLURRY MENTION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A SPLIT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BREAKS DOWN. A SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES...WHILE A DRIER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT TIED UP IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AND WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLES
THAT DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH FOR A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW AND
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THOSE PERIODS OVER ABOUT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE GFS MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT STRONG PACIFIC JET...ARCING
OVER A HIGH AMPLITUDE WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE...WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN AN UPPER TROUGH CLOSING INTO AN UPPER LOW AND
INTENSIFYING INTO A VERY STRONG SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS. MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR OFF
REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO A BLEND OF THE
FURTHER NORTH 00Z GFS AND FURTHER SOUTH 12Z ECMWF LOOKS GOOD.

00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA OR NORTHWESTERN IOWA AT 00Z TUESDAY WITH BROAD AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AND OPEN THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF RESULTING IN DEEPENING
MOISTURE TO GO ALONG WITH THE UPPER FORCING. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO
THE AREA BY MONDAY AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR
RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIR...UPPER IMPULSES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING STACKED LOW THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO QUEBEC EARLY CHRISTMAS.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY
CHRISTMAS EVE.

00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM THIS WEEKEND.
STRONGLY PREFER THE COOLER 00Z DECEMBER 17 EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 181200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 527 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THINK CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY BE
VFR...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME VFR AT TIMES.

WINDS WILL BE 5 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGHOUT UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS


















000
FXUS63 KIND 181027
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
527 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
THE GULF COAST STATES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE END OF
WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE CAUSING SOME SNOW OVER THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DAMPEN
OUT UNDER THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY. LIFT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER NEARLY SATURATES. THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR UNDER THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO
THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A FLURRY/TRACE EVENT AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE
FINER SCALE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LIFT
THIS AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE FLURRY MENTION AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS AS THE DAY GOES
BY.

GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY LOOK A
LITTLE WARM. WILL NUDGE THE HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MODEL DATA SUGGEST THERE MAY STILL SOME REMNANT ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY/S
DISTURBANCE...SO WILL EXTEND THE FLURRY MENTION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A SPLIT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BREAKS DOWN. A SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES...WHILE A DRIER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT TIED UP IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AND WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLES
THAT DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH FOR A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW AND
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THOSE PERIODS OVER ABOUT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE GFS MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT STRONG PACIFIC JET...ARCING
OVER A HIGH AMPLITUDE WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE...WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN AN UPPER TROUGH CLOSING INTO AN UPPER LOW AND
INTENSIFYING INTO A VERY STRONG SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS. MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR OFF
REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO A BLEND OF THE
FURTHER NORTH 00Z GFS AND FURTHER SOUTH 12Z ECMWF LOOKS GOOD.

00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA OR NORTHWESTERN IOWA AT 00Z TUESDAY WITH BROAD AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AND OPEN THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF RESULTING IN DEEPENING
MOISTURE TO GO ALONG WITH THE UPPER FORCING. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO
THE AREA BY MONDAY AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR
RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIR...UPPER IMPULSES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING STACKED LOW THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO QUEBEC EARLY CHRISTMAS.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY
CHRISTMAS EVE.

00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM THIS WEEKEND.
STRONGLY PREFER THE COOLER 00Z DECEMBER 17 EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 181200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 527 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THINK CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY BE
VFR...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME VFR AT TIMES.

WINDS WILL BE 5 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGHOUT UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

















000
FXUS63 KIND 181027
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
527 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
THE GULF COAST STATES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE END OF
WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE CAUSING SOME SNOW OVER THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DAMPEN
OUT UNDER THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY. LIFT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER NEARLY SATURATES. THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR UNDER THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO
THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A FLURRY/TRACE EVENT AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE
FINER SCALE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LIFT
THIS AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE FLURRY MENTION AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS AS THE DAY GOES
BY.

GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY LOOK A
LITTLE WARM. WILL NUDGE THE HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MODEL DATA SUGGEST THERE MAY STILL SOME REMNANT ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY/S
DISTURBANCE...SO WILL EXTEND THE FLURRY MENTION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A SPLIT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BREAKS DOWN. A SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES...WHILE A DRIER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT TIED UP IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AND WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLES
THAT DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH FOR A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW AND
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THOSE PERIODS OVER ABOUT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE GFS MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT STRONG PACIFIC JET...ARCING
OVER A HIGH AMPLITUDE WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE...WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN AN UPPER TROUGH CLOSING INTO AN UPPER LOW AND
INTENSIFYING INTO A VERY STRONG SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS. MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR OFF
REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO A BLEND OF THE
FURTHER NORTH 00Z GFS AND FURTHER SOUTH 12Z ECMWF LOOKS GOOD.

00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA OR NORTHWESTERN IOWA AT 00Z TUESDAY WITH BROAD AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AND OPEN THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF RESULTING IN DEEPENING
MOISTURE TO GO ALONG WITH THE UPPER FORCING. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO
THE AREA BY MONDAY AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR
RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIR...UPPER IMPULSES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING STACKED LOW THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO QUEBEC EARLY CHRISTMAS.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY
CHRISTMAS EVE.

00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM THIS WEEKEND.
STRONGLY PREFER THE COOLER 00Z DECEMBER 17 EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 181200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 527 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THINK CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY BE
VFR...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME VFR AT TIMES.

WINDS WILL BE 5 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGHOUT UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS


















000
FXUS63 KIND 181027
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
527 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
THE GULF COAST STATES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE END OF
WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE CAUSING SOME SNOW OVER THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DAMPEN
OUT UNDER THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY. LIFT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER NEARLY SATURATES. THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR UNDER THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO
THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A FLURRY/TRACE EVENT AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE
FINER SCALE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LIFT
THIS AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE FLURRY MENTION AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS AS THE DAY GOES
BY.

GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY LOOK A
LITTLE WARM. WILL NUDGE THE HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MODEL DATA SUGGEST THERE MAY STILL SOME REMNANT ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY/S
DISTURBANCE...SO WILL EXTEND THE FLURRY MENTION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A SPLIT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BREAKS DOWN. A SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES...WHILE A DRIER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT TIED UP IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AND WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLES
THAT DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH FOR A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW AND
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THOSE PERIODS OVER ABOUT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE GFS MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT STRONG PACIFIC JET...ARCING
OVER A HIGH AMPLITUDE WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE...WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN AN UPPER TROUGH CLOSING INTO AN UPPER LOW AND
INTENSIFYING INTO A VERY STRONG SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS. MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR OFF
REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO A BLEND OF THE
FURTHER NORTH 00Z GFS AND FURTHER SOUTH 12Z ECMWF LOOKS GOOD.

00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA OR NORTHWESTERN IOWA AT 00Z TUESDAY WITH BROAD AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AND OPEN THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF RESULTING IN DEEPENING
MOISTURE TO GO ALONG WITH THE UPPER FORCING. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO
THE AREA BY MONDAY AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR
RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIR...UPPER IMPULSES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING STACKED LOW THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO QUEBEC EARLY CHRISTMAS.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY
CHRISTMAS EVE.

00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM THIS WEEKEND.
STRONGLY PREFER THE COOLER 00Z DECEMBER 17 EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 181200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 527 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THINK CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY BE
VFR...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME VFR AT TIMES.

WINDS WILL BE 5 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGHOUT UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

















000
FXUS63 KIND 180842
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
342 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
THE GULF COAST STATES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE END OF
WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE CAUSING SOME SNOW OVER THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DAMPEN
OUT UNDER THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY. LIFT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER NEARLY SATURATES. THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR UNDER THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO
THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A FLURRY/TRACE EVENT AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE
FINER SCALE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LIFT
THIS AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE FLURRY MENTION AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS AS THE DAY GOES
BY.

GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY LOOK A
LITTLE WARM. WILL NUDGE THE HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MODEL DATA SUGGEST THERE MAY STILL SOME REMNANT ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY/S
DISTURBANCE...SO WILL EXTEND THE FLURRY MENTION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A SPLIT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BREAKS DOWN. A SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES...WHILE A DRIER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT TIED UP IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AND WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLES
THAT DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH FOR A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW AND
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THOSE PERIODS OVER ABOUT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE GFS MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT STRONG PACIFIC JET...ARCING
OVER A HIGH AMPLITUDE WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE...WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN AN UPPER TROUGH CLOSING INTO AN UPPER LOW AND
INTENSIFYING INTO A VERY STRONG SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS. MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR OFF
REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO A BLEND OF THE
FURTHER NORTH 00Z GFS AND FURTHER SOUTH 12Z ECMWF LOOKS GOOD.

00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA OR NORTHWESTERN IOWA AT 00Z TUESDAY WITH BROAD AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AND OPEN THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF RESULTING IN DEEPENING
MOISTURE TO GO ALONG WITH THE UPPER FORCING. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO
THE AREA BY MONDAY AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR
RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIR...UPPER IMPULSES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING STACKED LOW THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO QUEBEC EARLY CHRISTMAS.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY
CHRISTMAS EVE.

00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM THIS WEEKEND.
STRONGLY PREFER THE COOLER 00Z DECEMBER 17 EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAK TO WINDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THEN EXPECT
ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS TO HIGHER END MVFR BY
LATE THIS MORNING. THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS AGAIN BY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN MVFR STRATUS DECK.
LEANED WITH NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS
HAPPENING AS OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS
COMMON DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THOUGH THE NAM HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY
MORE OPTIMISTIC THIS MODEL RUN ABOUT SEEING A FEW SITES WITH LOW
END VFR CEILINGS LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE
FORECASTING WITH THIS ISSUANCE AND WHETHER TO GO VFR LATER TODAY
MAY BE DECIDED WITH SUBSEQUENT AVIATION FORECASTS...HOWEVER NOT AT
THIS TIME.

W/NW WINDS 8KT OR LESS THOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...SMF/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS















000
FXUS63 KIND 180842
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
342 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
THE GULF COAST STATES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE END OF
WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE CAUSING SOME SNOW OVER THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DAMPEN
OUT UNDER THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY. LIFT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER NEARLY SATURATES. THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR UNDER THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO
THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A FLURRY/TRACE EVENT AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE
FINER SCALE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LIFT
THIS AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE FLURRY MENTION AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS AS THE DAY GOES
BY.

GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY LOOK A
LITTLE WARM. WILL NUDGE THE HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MODEL DATA SUGGEST THERE MAY STILL SOME REMNANT ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY/S
DISTURBANCE...SO WILL EXTEND THE FLURRY MENTION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A SPLIT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BREAKS DOWN. A SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES...WHILE A DRIER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT TIED UP IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AND WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLES
THAT DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH FOR A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW AND
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THOSE PERIODS OVER ABOUT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE GFS MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT STRONG PACIFIC JET...ARCING
OVER A HIGH AMPLITUDE WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE...WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN AN UPPER TROUGH CLOSING INTO AN UPPER LOW AND
INTENSIFYING INTO A VERY STRONG SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS. MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR OFF
REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO A BLEND OF THE
FURTHER NORTH 00Z GFS AND FURTHER SOUTH 12Z ECMWF LOOKS GOOD.

00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA OR NORTHWESTERN IOWA AT 00Z TUESDAY WITH BROAD AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AND OPEN THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF RESULTING IN DEEPENING
MOISTURE TO GO ALONG WITH THE UPPER FORCING. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO
THE AREA BY MONDAY AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR
RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIR...UPPER IMPULSES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING STACKED LOW THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO QUEBEC EARLY CHRISTMAS.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY
CHRISTMAS EVE.

00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM THIS WEEKEND.
STRONGLY PREFER THE COOLER 00Z DECEMBER 17 EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAK TO WINDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THEN EXPECT
ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS TO HIGHER END MVFR BY
LATE THIS MORNING. THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS AGAIN BY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN MVFR STRATUS DECK.
LEANED WITH NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS
HAPPENING AS OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS
COMMON DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THOUGH THE NAM HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY
MORE OPTIMISTIC THIS MODEL RUN ABOUT SEEING A FEW SITES WITH LOW
END VFR CEILINGS LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE
FORECASTING WITH THIS ISSUANCE AND WHETHER TO GO VFR LATER TODAY
MAY BE DECIDED WITH SUBSEQUENT AVIATION FORECASTS...HOWEVER NOT AT
THIS TIME.

W/NW WINDS 8KT OR LESS THOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...SMF/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 180842
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
342 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
THE GULF COAST STATES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE END OF
WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE CAUSING SOME SNOW OVER THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DAMPEN
OUT UNDER THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY. LIFT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER NEARLY SATURATES. THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR UNDER THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO
THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A FLURRY/TRACE EVENT AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE
FINER SCALE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LIFT
THIS AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE FLURRY MENTION AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS AS THE DAY GOES
BY.

GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY LOOK A
LITTLE WARM. WILL NUDGE THE HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MODEL DATA SUGGEST THERE MAY STILL SOME REMNANT ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY/S
DISTURBANCE...SO WILL EXTEND THE FLURRY MENTION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A SPLIT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BREAKS DOWN. A SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES...WHILE A DRIER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT TIED UP IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AND WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLES
THAT DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH FOR A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW AND
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THOSE PERIODS OVER ABOUT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE GFS MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT STRONG PACIFIC JET...ARCING
OVER A HIGH AMPLITUDE WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE...WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN AN UPPER TROUGH CLOSING INTO AN UPPER LOW AND
INTENSIFYING INTO A VERY STRONG SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS. MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR OFF
REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO A BLEND OF THE
FURTHER NORTH 00Z GFS AND FURTHER SOUTH 12Z ECMWF LOOKS GOOD.

00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA OR NORTHWESTERN IOWA AT 00Z TUESDAY WITH BROAD AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AND OPEN THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF RESULTING IN DEEPENING
MOISTURE TO GO ALONG WITH THE UPPER FORCING. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO
THE AREA BY MONDAY AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR
RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIR...UPPER IMPULSES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING STACKED LOW THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO QUEBEC EARLY CHRISTMAS.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY
CHRISTMAS EVE.

00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM THIS WEEKEND.
STRONGLY PREFER THE COOLER 00Z DECEMBER 17 EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAK TO WINDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THEN EXPECT
ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS TO HIGHER END MVFR BY
LATE THIS MORNING. THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS AGAIN BY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN MVFR STRATUS DECK.
LEANED WITH NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS
HAPPENING AS OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS
COMMON DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THOUGH THE NAM HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY
MORE OPTIMISTIC THIS MODEL RUN ABOUT SEEING A FEW SITES WITH LOW
END VFR CEILINGS LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE
FORECASTING WITH THIS ISSUANCE AND WHETHER TO GO VFR LATER TODAY
MAY BE DECIDED WITH SUBSEQUENT AVIATION FORECASTS...HOWEVER NOT AT
THIS TIME.

W/NW WINDS 8KT OR LESS THOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...SMF/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 180842
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
342 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
THE GULF COAST STATES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE END OF
WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE CAUSING SOME SNOW OVER THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DAMPEN
OUT UNDER THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY. LIFT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER NEARLY SATURATES. THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR UNDER THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO
THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A FLURRY/TRACE EVENT AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE
FINER SCALE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LIFT
THIS AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE FLURRY MENTION AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS AS THE DAY GOES
BY.

GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY LOOK A
LITTLE WARM. WILL NUDGE THE HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MODEL DATA SUGGEST THERE MAY STILL SOME REMNANT ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY/S
DISTURBANCE...SO WILL EXTEND THE FLURRY MENTION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A SPLIT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BREAKS DOWN. A SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES...WHILE A DRIER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT TIED UP IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AND WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLES
THAT DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH FOR A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW AND
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THOSE PERIODS OVER ABOUT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE GFS MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT STRONG PACIFIC JET...ARCING
OVER A HIGH AMPLITUDE WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE...WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN AN UPPER TROUGH CLOSING INTO AN UPPER LOW AND
INTENSIFYING INTO A VERY STRONG SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS. MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR OFF
REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO A BLEND OF THE
FURTHER NORTH 00Z GFS AND FURTHER SOUTH 12Z ECMWF LOOKS GOOD.

00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA OR NORTHWESTERN IOWA AT 00Z TUESDAY WITH BROAD AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AND OPEN THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF RESULTING IN DEEPENING
MOISTURE TO GO ALONG WITH THE UPPER FORCING. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO
THE AREA BY MONDAY AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR
RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIR...UPPER IMPULSES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING STACKED LOW THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO QUEBEC EARLY CHRISTMAS.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY
CHRISTMAS EVE.

00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM THIS WEEKEND.
STRONGLY PREFER THE COOLER 00Z DECEMBER 17 EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAK TO WINDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THEN EXPECT
ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS TO HIGHER END MVFR BY
LATE THIS MORNING. THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS AGAIN BY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN MVFR STRATUS DECK.
LEANED WITH NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS
HAPPENING AS OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS
COMMON DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THOUGH THE NAM HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY
MORE OPTIMISTIC THIS MODEL RUN ABOUT SEEING A FEW SITES WITH LOW
END VFR CEILINGS LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE
FORECASTING WITH THIS ISSUANCE AND WHETHER TO GO VFR LATER TODAY
MAY BE DECIDED WITH SUBSEQUENT AVIATION FORECASTS...HOWEVER NOT AT
THIS TIME.

W/NW WINDS 8KT OR LESS THOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...SMF/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS















000
FXUS63 KIND 180840
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
THE GULF COAST STATES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE END OF
WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE CAUSING SOME SNOW OVER THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DAMPEN
OUT UNDER THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY. LIFT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER NEARLY SATURATES. THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR UNDER THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO
THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A FLURRY/TRACE EVENT AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE
FINER SCALE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LIFT
THIS AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE FLURRY MENTION AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS AS THE DAY GOES
BY.

GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY LOOK A
LITTLE WARM. WILL NUDGE THE HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MODEL DATA SUGGEST THERE MAY STILL SOME REMNANT ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY/S
DISTURBANCE...SO WILL EXTEND THE FLURRY MENTION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A SPLIT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BREAKS DOWN. A SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES...WHILE A DRIER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT TIED UP IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AND WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLES
THAT DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH FOR A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW AND
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THOSE PERIODS OVER ABOUT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE GFS MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT STRONG PACIFIC JET...ARCING
OVER A HIGH AMPLITUDE WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE...WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN AN UPPER TROUGH CLOSING INTO AN UPPER LOW AND
INTENSIFYING INTO A VERY STRONG SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS. MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR OFF
REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO A BLEND OF THE
FURTHER NORTH 00Z GFS AND FURTHER SOUTH 12Z ECMWF LOOKS GOOD.

00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA OR NORTHWESTERN IOWA AT 00Z TUESDAY WITH BROAD AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AND OPEN THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF RESULTING IN DEEPENING
MOISTURE TO GO ALONG WITH THE UPPER FORCING. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO
THE AREA BY MONDAY AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR
RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIR...UPPER IMPULSES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING STACKED LOW THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO QUEBEC EARLY CHRISTMAS.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY
CHRISTMAS EVE.

00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM THIS WEEKEND.
STRONGLY PREFER THE COOLER 00Z DECEMBER 17 EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THEN EXPECT
ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS TO HIGHER END MVFR BY
LATE THIS MORNING. THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS AGAIN BY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN MVFR STRATUS DECK.
LEANED WITH NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS
HAPPENING AS OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS
COMMON DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THOUGH THE NAM HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY
MORE OPTIMISTIC THIS MODEL RUN ABOUT SEEING A FEW SITES WITH LOW
END VFR CEILINGS LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE
FORECASTING WITH THIS ISSUANCE AND WHETHER TO GO VFR LATER TODAY
MAY BE DECIDED WITH SUBSEQUENT AVIATION FORECASTS...HOWEVER NOT AT
THIS TIME.

W/NW WINDS 8KT OR LESS THOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 180840
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
THE GULF COAST STATES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE END OF
WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE CAUSING SOME SNOW OVER THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DAMPEN
OUT UNDER THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY. LIFT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER NEARLY SATURATES. THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR UNDER THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO
THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A FLURRY/TRACE EVENT AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE
FINER SCALE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LIFT
THIS AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE FLURRY MENTION AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS AS THE DAY GOES
BY.

GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY LOOK A
LITTLE WARM. WILL NUDGE THE HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MODEL DATA SUGGEST THERE MAY STILL SOME REMNANT ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY/S
DISTURBANCE...SO WILL EXTEND THE FLURRY MENTION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A SPLIT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BREAKS DOWN. A SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES...WHILE A DRIER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT TIED UP IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AND WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLES
THAT DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH FOR A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW AND
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THOSE PERIODS OVER ABOUT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE GFS MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT STRONG PACIFIC JET...ARCING
OVER A HIGH AMPLITUDE WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE...WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN AN UPPER TROUGH CLOSING INTO AN UPPER LOW AND
INTENSIFYING INTO A VERY STRONG SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS. MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR OFF
REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO A BLEND OF THE
FURTHER NORTH 00Z GFS AND FURTHER SOUTH 12Z ECMWF LOOKS GOOD.

00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA OR NORTHWESTERN IOWA AT 00Z TUESDAY WITH BROAD AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AND OPEN THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF RESULTING IN DEEPENING
MOISTURE TO GO ALONG WITH THE UPPER FORCING. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO
THE AREA BY MONDAY AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR
RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIR...UPPER IMPULSES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING STACKED LOW THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO QUEBEC EARLY CHRISTMAS.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY
CHRISTMAS EVE.

00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM THIS WEEKEND.
STRONGLY PREFER THE COOLER 00Z DECEMBER 17 EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THEN EXPECT
ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS TO HIGHER END MVFR BY
LATE THIS MORNING. THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS AGAIN BY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN MVFR STRATUS DECK.
LEANED WITH NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS
HAPPENING AS OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS
COMMON DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THOUGH THE NAM HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY
MORE OPTIMISTIC THIS MODEL RUN ABOUT SEEING A FEW SITES WITH LOW
END VFR CEILINGS LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE
FORECASTING WITH THIS ISSUANCE AND WHETHER TO GO VFR LATER TODAY
MAY BE DECIDED WITH SUBSEQUENT AVIATION FORECASTS...HOWEVER NOT AT
THIS TIME.

W/NW WINDS 8KT OR LESS THOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 180840
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
THE GULF COAST STATES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE END OF
WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE CAUSING SOME SNOW OVER THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DAMPEN
OUT UNDER THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY. LIFT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER NEARLY SATURATES. THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR UNDER THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO
THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A FLURRY/TRACE EVENT AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE
FINER SCALE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LIFT
THIS AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE FLURRY MENTION AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS AS THE DAY GOES
BY.

GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY LOOK A
LITTLE WARM. WILL NUDGE THE HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MODEL DATA SUGGEST THERE MAY STILL SOME REMNANT ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY/S
DISTURBANCE...SO WILL EXTEND THE FLURRY MENTION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A SPLIT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BREAKS DOWN. A SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES...WHILE A DRIER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT TIED UP IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AND WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLES
THAT DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH FOR A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW AND
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THOSE PERIODS OVER ABOUT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE GFS MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT STRONG PACIFIC JET...ARCING
OVER A HIGH AMPLITUDE WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE...WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN AN UPPER TROUGH CLOSING INTO AN UPPER LOW AND
INTENSIFYING INTO A VERY STRONG SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS. MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR OFF
REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO A BLEND OF THE
FURTHER NORTH 00Z GFS AND FURTHER SOUTH 12Z ECMWF LOOKS GOOD.

00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA OR NORTHWESTERN IOWA AT 00Z TUESDAY WITH BROAD AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AND OPEN THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF RESULTING IN DEEPENING
MOISTURE TO GO ALONG WITH THE UPPER FORCING. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO
THE AREA BY MONDAY AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR
RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIR...UPPER IMPULSES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING STACKED LOW THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO QUEBEC EARLY CHRISTMAS.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY
CHRISTMAS EVE.

00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM THIS WEEKEND.
STRONGLY PREFER THE COOLER 00Z DECEMBER 17 EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THEN EXPECT
ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS TO HIGHER END MVFR BY
LATE THIS MORNING. THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS AGAIN BY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN MVFR STRATUS DECK.
LEANED WITH NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS
HAPPENING AS OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS
COMMON DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THOUGH THE NAM HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY
MORE OPTIMISTIC THIS MODEL RUN ABOUT SEEING A FEW SITES WITH LOW
END VFR CEILINGS LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE
FORECASTING WITH THIS ISSUANCE AND WHETHER TO GO VFR LATER TODAY
MAY BE DECIDED WITH SUBSEQUENT AVIATION FORECASTS...HOWEVER NOT AT
THIS TIME.

W/NW WINDS 8KT OR LESS THOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 180754
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
254 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
THE GULF COAST STATES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE END OF
WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE CAUSING SOME SNOW OVER THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DAMPEN
OUT UNDER THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY. LIFT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER NEARLY SATURATES. THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR UNDER THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO
THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A FLURRY/TRACE EVENT AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE
FINER SCALE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LIFT
THIS AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE FLURRY MENTION AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS AS THE DAY GOES
BY.

GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY LOOK A
LITTLE WARM. WILL NUDGE THE HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MODEL DATA SUGGEST THERE MAY STILL SOME REMNANT ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY/S
DISTURBANCE...SO WILL EXTEND THE FLURRY MENTION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A SPLIT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BREAKS DOWN. A SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES...WHILE A DRIER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT TIED UP IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AND WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLES
THAT DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH FOR A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW AND
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THOSE PERIODS OVER ABOUT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE GFS MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL MODEL WILL BE ACCEPTED...BUT
THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS BOTH DEVELOP VERY STRONG SYSTEMS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BY MIDWEEK.  WITH SUCH SYSTEMS EVEN A SMALL
DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE GREAT. DEPENDING ON WHAT IS
CORRECT...INDIANA COULD HAVE A MAJOR WINTER STORM OR A MUCH LESSER
EVENT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT PROBABLY WONT BE POSSIBLE TO MAKE
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN MONDAY. UNTIL THEN
THE BEST STRATEGY MAY BE TO PLAN FOR THE WORST AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THEN EXPECT
ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS TO HIGHER END MVFR BY
LATE THIS MORNING. THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS AGAIN BY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN MVFR STRATUS DECK.
LEANED WITH NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS
HAPPENING AS OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS
COMMON DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THOUGH THE NAM HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY
MORE OPTIMISTIC THIS MODEL RUN ABOUT SEEING A FEW SITES WITH LOW
END VFR CEILINGS LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE
FORECASTING WITH THIS ISSUANCE AND WHETHER TO GO VFR LATER TODAY
MAY BE DECIDED WITH SUBSEQUENT AVIATION FORECASTS...HOWEVER NOT AT
THIS TIME.

W/NW WINDS 8KT OR LESS THOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 180754
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
254 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
THE GULF COAST STATES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE END OF
WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE CAUSING SOME SNOW OVER THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DAMPEN
OUT UNDER THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY. LIFT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER NEARLY SATURATES. THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR UNDER THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO
THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A FLURRY/TRACE EVENT AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE
FINER SCALE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LIFT
THIS AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE FLURRY MENTION AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS AS THE DAY GOES
BY.

GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY LOOK A
LITTLE WARM. WILL NUDGE THE HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MODEL DATA SUGGEST THERE MAY STILL SOME REMNANT ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY/S
DISTURBANCE...SO WILL EXTEND THE FLURRY MENTION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A SPLIT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BREAKS DOWN. A SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES...WHILE A DRIER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT TIED UP IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AND WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLES
THAT DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH FOR A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW AND
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THOSE PERIODS OVER ABOUT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE GFS MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL MODEL WILL BE ACCEPTED...BUT
THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS BOTH DEVELOP VERY STRONG SYSTEMS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BY MIDWEEK.  WITH SUCH SYSTEMS EVEN A SMALL
DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE GREAT. DEPENDING ON WHAT IS
CORRECT...INDIANA COULD HAVE A MAJOR WINTER STORM OR A MUCH LESSER
EVENT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT PROBABLY WONT BE POSSIBLE TO MAKE
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN MONDAY. UNTIL THEN
THE BEST STRATEGY MAY BE TO PLAN FOR THE WORST AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THEN EXPECT
ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS TO HIGHER END MVFR BY
LATE THIS MORNING. THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS AGAIN BY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN MVFR STRATUS DECK.
LEANED WITH NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS
HAPPENING AS OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS
COMMON DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THOUGH THE NAM HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY
MORE OPTIMISTIC THIS MODEL RUN ABOUT SEEING A FEW SITES WITH LOW
END VFR CEILINGS LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE
FORECASTING WITH THIS ISSUANCE AND WHETHER TO GO VFR LATER TODAY
MAY BE DECIDED WITH SUBSEQUENT AVIATION FORECASTS...HOWEVER NOT AT
THIS TIME.

W/NW WINDS 8KT OR LESS THOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 180754
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
254 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
THE GULF COAST STATES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE END OF
WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE CAUSING SOME SNOW OVER THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DAMPEN
OUT UNDER THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY. LIFT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER NEARLY SATURATES. THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR UNDER THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO
THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A FLURRY/TRACE EVENT AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE
FINER SCALE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LIFT
THIS AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE FLURRY MENTION AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS AS THE DAY GOES
BY.

GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY LOOK A
LITTLE WARM. WILL NUDGE THE HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MODEL DATA SUGGEST THERE MAY STILL SOME REMNANT ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY/S
DISTURBANCE...SO WILL EXTEND THE FLURRY MENTION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A SPLIT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BREAKS DOWN. A SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES...WHILE A DRIER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT TIED UP IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AND WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLES
THAT DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH FOR A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW AND
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THOSE PERIODS OVER ABOUT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE GFS MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL MODEL WILL BE ACCEPTED...BUT
THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS BOTH DEVELOP VERY STRONG SYSTEMS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BY MIDWEEK.  WITH SUCH SYSTEMS EVEN A SMALL
DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE GREAT. DEPENDING ON WHAT IS
CORRECT...INDIANA COULD HAVE A MAJOR WINTER STORM OR A MUCH LESSER
EVENT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT PROBABLY WONT BE POSSIBLE TO MAKE
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN MONDAY. UNTIL THEN
THE BEST STRATEGY MAY BE TO PLAN FOR THE WORST AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THEN EXPECT
ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS TO HIGHER END MVFR BY
LATE THIS MORNING. THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS AGAIN BY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN MVFR STRATUS DECK.
LEANED WITH NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS
HAPPENING AS OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS
COMMON DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THOUGH THE NAM HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY
MORE OPTIMISTIC THIS MODEL RUN ABOUT SEEING A FEW SITES WITH LOW
END VFR CEILINGS LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE
FORECASTING WITH THIS ISSUANCE AND WHETHER TO GO VFR LATER TODAY
MAY BE DECIDED WITH SUBSEQUENT AVIATION FORECASTS...HOWEVER NOT AT
THIS TIME.

W/NW WINDS 8KT OR LESS THOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 180754
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
254 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
THE GULF COAST STATES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE END OF
WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE CAUSING SOME SNOW OVER THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DAMPEN
OUT UNDER THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY. LIFT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER NEARLY SATURATES. THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR UNDER THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO
THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A FLURRY/TRACE EVENT AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE
FINER SCALE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LIFT
THIS AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE FLURRY MENTION AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS AS THE DAY GOES
BY.

GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY LOOK A
LITTLE WARM. WILL NUDGE THE HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MODEL DATA SUGGEST THERE MAY STILL SOME REMNANT ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY/S
DISTURBANCE...SO WILL EXTEND THE FLURRY MENTION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A SPLIT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BREAKS DOWN. A SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES...WHILE A DRIER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT TIED UP IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AND WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLES
THAT DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH FOR A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW AND
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THOSE PERIODS OVER ABOUT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE GFS MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL MODEL WILL BE ACCEPTED...BUT
THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS BOTH DEVELOP VERY STRONG SYSTEMS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BY MIDWEEK.  WITH SUCH SYSTEMS EVEN A SMALL
DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE GREAT. DEPENDING ON WHAT IS
CORRECT...INDIANA COULD HAVE A MAJOR WINTER STORM OR A MUCH LESSER
EVENT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT PROBABLY WONT BE POSSIBLE TO MAKE
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN MONDAY. UNTIL THEN
THE BEST STRATEGY MAY BE TO PLAN FOR THE WORST AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THEN EXPECT
ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS TO HIGHER END MVFR BY
LATE THIS MORNING. THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS AGAIN BY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN MVFR STRATUS DECK.
LEANED WITH NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS
HAPPENING AS OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS
COMMON DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THOUGH THE NAM HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY
MORE OPTIMISTIC THIS MODEL RUN ABOUT SEEING A FEW SITES WITH LOW
END VFR CEILINGS LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE
FORECASTING WITH THIS ISSUANCE AND WHETHER TO GO VFR LATER TODAY
MAY BE DECIDED WITH SUBSEQUENT AVIATION FORECASTS...HOWEVER NOT AT
THIS TIME.

W/NW WINDS 8KT OR LESS THOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 180448
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1148 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET BUT SOMEWHAT DREARY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND PERHAPS EVEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS
TO BE A SYSTEM NEXT WEEK UPON WHICH THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
GREATLY AS IS TYPICAL AT SUCH TIME SCALES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 657 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS STRATUS DECK STUBBORNLY HOLDING ON OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA AND MOST EROSION HAS STOPPED. ALSO GETTING
INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST
STARTING TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF INTERMOUNTAIN LOW. THUS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER TO CLOUDY FOR ENTIRE NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY NEAR OR AT OVERNIGHT LOWS SO DROPPED THEM
BY A COUPLE DEGREES CLOSE TO RAP/HRRR NUMBERS. WITH CLOUDS DON/T
EXPECT THEM TO DROP MORE THAN THAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON SYSTEM
PRODUCING SOME ECHOES OVER MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BUT AT THIS POINT
MODELS ARE KEEPING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT
MOISTURE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR. THAT SAID...Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS SOLID AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT LEAST
BRIEF SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WILL CARRY A
14 POP AND A CHANCE OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD. WILL
ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF SATURDAY. ANY PRECIP SHOULD
BE SNOW...WITH A SHOT AT SOME MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...IF ANY PRECIP REMAINS AT THAT TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED GENERALLY REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROGS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT WARMING
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL MODEL WILL BE ACCEPTED...BUT
THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS BOTH DEVELOP VERY STRONG SYSTEMS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BY MIDWEEK.  WITH SUCH SYSTEMS EVEN A SMALL
DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE GREAT. DEPENDING ON WHAT IS
CORRECT...INDIANA COULD HAVE A MAJOR WINTER STORM OR A MUCH LESSER
EVENT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT PROBABLY WONT BE POSSIBLE TO MAKE
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN MONDAY. UNTIL THEN
THE BEST STRATEGY MAY BE TO PLAN FOR THE WORST AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THEN EXPECT
ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS TO HIGHER END MVFR BY
LATE THIS MORNING. THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS AGAIN BY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN MVFR STRATUS DECK.
LEANED WITH NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS
HAPPENING AS OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS
COMMON DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THOUGH THE NAM HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY
MORE OPTIMISTIC THIS MODEL RUN ABOUT SEEING A FEW SITES WITH LOW
END VFR CEILINGS LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE
FORECASTING WITH THIS ISSUANCE AND WHETHER TO GO VFR LATER TODAY
MAY BE DECIDED WITH SUBSEQUENT AVIATION FORECASTS...HOWEVER NOT AT
THIS TIME.

W/NW WINDS 8KT OR LESS THOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 180448
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1148 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET BUT SOMEWHAT DREARY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND PERHAPS EVEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS
TO BE A SYSTEM NEXT WEEK UPON WHICH THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
GREATLY AS IS TYPICAL AT SUCH TIME SCALES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 657 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS STRATUS DECK STUBBORNLY HOLDING ON OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA AND MOST EROSION HAS STOPPED. ALSO GETTING
INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST
STARTING TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF INTERMOUNTAIN LOW. THUS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER TO CLOUDY FOR ENTIRE NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY NEAR OR AT OVERNIGHT LOWS SO DROPPED THEM
BY A COUPLE DEGREES CLOSE TO RAP/HRRR NUMBERS. WITH CLOUDS DON/T
EXPECT THEM TO DROP MORE THAN THAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON SYSTEM
PRODUCING SOME ECHOES OVER MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BUT AT THIS POINT
MODELS ARE KEEPING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT
MOISTURE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR. THAT SAID...Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS SOLID AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT LEAST
BRIEF SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WILL CARRY A
14 POP AND A CHANCE OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD. WILL
ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF SATURDAY. ANY PRECIP SHOULD
BE SNOW...WITH A SHOT AT SOME MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...IF ANY PRECIP REMAINS AT THAT TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED GENERALLY REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROGS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT WARMING
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL MODEL WILL BE ACCEPTED...BUT
THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS BOTH DEVELOP VERY STRONG SYSTEMS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BY MIDWEEK.  WITH SUCH SYSTEMS EVEN A SMALL
DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE GREAT. DEPENDING ON WHAT IS
CORRECT...INDIANA COULD HAVE A MAJOR WINTER STORM OR A MUCH LESSER
EVENT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT PROBABLY WONT BE POSSIBLE TO MAKE
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN MONDAY. UNTIL THEN
THE BEST STRATEGY MAY BE TO PLAN FOR THE WORST AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THEN EXPECT
ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS TO HIGHER END MVFR BY
LATE THIS MORNING. THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS AGAIN BY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN MVFR STRATUS DECK.
LEANED WITH NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS
HAPPENING AS OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS
COMMON DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THOUGH THE NAM HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY
MORE OPTIMISTIC THIS MODEL RUN ABOUT SEEING A FEW SITES WITH LOW
END VFR CEILINGS LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE
FORECASTING WITH THIS ISSUANCE AND WHETHER TO GO VFR LATER TODAY
MAY BE DECIDED WITH SUBSEQUENT AVIATION FORECASTS...HOWEVER NOT AT
THIS TIME.

W/NW WINDS 8KT OR LESS THOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 180236
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
936 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET BUT SOMEWHAT DREARY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND PERHAPS EVEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS
TO BE A SYSTEM NEXT WEEK UPON WHICH THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
GREATLY AS IS TYPICAL AT SUCH TIME SCALES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 657 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS STRATUS DECK STUBBORNLY HOLDING ON OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA AND MOST EROSION HAS STOPPED. ALSO GETTING
INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST
STARTING TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF INTERMOUNTAIN LOW. THUS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER TO CLOUDY FOR ENTIRE NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY NEAR OR AT OVERNIGHT LOWS SO DROPPED THEM
BY A COUPLE DEGREES CLOSE TO RAP/HRRR NUMBERS. WITH CLOUDS DON/T
EXPECT THEM TO DROP MORE THAN THAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON SYSTEM
PRODUCING SOME ECHOES OVER MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BUT AT THIS POINT
MODELS ARE KEEPING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT
MOISTURE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR. THAT SAID...Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS SOLID AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT LEAST
BRIEF SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WILL CARRY A
14 POP AND A CHANCE OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD. WILL
ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF SATURDAY. ANY PRECIP SHOULD
BE SNOW...WITH A SHOT AT SOME MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...IF ANY PRECIP REMAINS AT THAT TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED GENERALLY REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROGS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT WARMING
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL MODEL WILL BE ACCEPTED...BUT
THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS BOTH DEVELOP VERY STRONG SYSTEMS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BY MIDWEEK.  WITH SUCH SYSTEMS EVEN A SMALL
DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE GREAT. DEPENDING ON WHAT IS
CORRECT...INDIANA COULD HAVE A MAJOR WINTER STORM OR A MUCH LESSER
EVENT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT PROBABLY WONT BE POSSIBLE TO MAKE
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN MONDAY. UNTIL THEN
THE BEST STRATEGY MAY BE TO PLAN FOR THE WORST AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 926 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

0225Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEN EXPECT ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILINGS TO HIGHER END MVFR BY LATE THIS MORNING. AN INVERSION
DEVELOPS AGAIN BY THE THU EVENING AND ALL SITES WILL MAINTAIN AN
MVFR STRATUS DECK. LEANED WITH THE NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE
ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS HAPPENING AS OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY
OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS COMMON DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

W/NW WINDS 10KT OR LESS THOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 180009
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
709 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET BUT SOMEWHAT DREARY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND PERHAPS EVEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS
TO BE A SYSTEM NEXT WEEK UPON WHICH THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
GREATLY AS IS TYPICAL AT SUCH TIME SCALES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 657 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS STRATUS DECK STUBBORNLY HOLDING ON OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA AND MOST EROSION HAS STOPPED. ALSO GETTING
INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST
STARTING TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF INTERMOUNTAIN LOW. THUS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER TO CLOUDY FOR ENTIRE NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY NEAR OR AT OVERNIGHT LOWS SO DROPPED THEM
BY A COUPLE DEGREES CLOSE TO RAP/HRRR NUMBERS. WITH CLOUDS DON/T
EXPECT THEM TO DROP MORE THAN THAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON SYSTEM
PRODUCING SOME ECHOES OVER MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BUT AT THIS POINT
MODELS ARE KEEPING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL INDIANA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT
MOISTURE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR. THAT SAID...Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS SOLID AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT LEAST
BRIEF SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WILL CARRY A
14 POP AND A CHANCE OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD. WILL
ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF SATURDAY. ANY PRECIP SHOULD
BE SNOW...WITH A SHOT AT SOME MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...IF ANY PRECIP REMAINS AT THAT TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED GENERALLY REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROGS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT WARMING
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL MODEL WILL BE ACCEPTED...BUT
THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS BOTH DEVELOP VERY STRONG SYSTEMS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BY MIDWEEK.  WITH SUCH SYSTEMS EVEN A SMALL
DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE GREAT. DEPENDING ON WHAT IS
CORRECT...INDIANA COULD HAVE A MAJOR WINTER STORM OR A MUCH LESSER
EVENT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT PROBABLY WONT BE POSSIBLE TO MAKE
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN MONDAY. UNTIL THEN
THE BEST STRATEGY MAY BE TO PLAN FOR THE WORST AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 559 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEN EXPECT ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILINGS TO HIGHER END MVFR BY LATE THIS MORNING. AN INVERSION
DEVELOPS AGAIN BY THE THU EVENING AND ALL SITES WILL MAINTAIN AN
MVFR STRATUS DECK. LEANED WITH THE NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE
ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS HAPPENING AS OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY
OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS COMMON DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

W/NW WINDS 10KT OR LESS THOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 180009
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
709 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET BUT SOMEWHAT DREARY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND PERHAPS EVEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS
TO BE A SYSTEM NEXT WEEK UPON WHICH THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
GREATLY AS IS TYPICAL AT SUCH TIME SCALES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 657 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS STRATUS DECK STUBBORNLY HOLDING ON OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA AND MOST EROSION HAS STOPPED. ALSO GETTING
INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST
STARTING TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF INTERMOUNTAIN LOW. THUS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER TO CLOUDY FOR ENTIRE NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY NEAR OR AT OVERNIGHT LOWS SO DROPPED THEM
BY A COUPLE DEGREES CLOSE TO RAP/HRRR NUMBERS. WITH CLOUDS DON/T
EXPECT THEM TO DROP MORE THAN THAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON SYSTEM
PRODUCING SOME ECHOES OVER MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BUT AT THIS POINT
MODELS ARE KEEPING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL INDIANA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT
MOISTURE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR. THAT SAID...Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS SOLID AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT LEAST
BRIEF SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WILL CARRY A
14 POP AND A CHANCE OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD. WILL
ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF SATURDAY. ANY PRECIP SHOULD
BE SNOW...WITH A SHOT AT SOME MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...IF ANY PRECIP REMAINS AT THAT TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED GENERALLY REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROGS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT WARMING
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL MODEL WILL BE ACCEPTED...BUT
THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS BOTH DEVELOP VERY STRONG SYSTEMS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BY MIDWEEK.  WITH SUCH SYSTEMS EVEN A SMALL
DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE GREAT. DEPENDING ON WHAT IS
CORRECT...INDIANA COULD HAVE A MAJOR WINTER STORM OR A MUCH LESSER
EVENT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT PROBABLY WONT BE POSSIBLE TO MAKE
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN MONDAY. UNTIL THEN
THE BEST STRATEGY MAY BE TO PLAN FOR THE WORST AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 559 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEN EXPECT ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILINGS TO HIGHER END MVFR BY LATE THIS MORNING. AN INVERSION
DEVELOPS AGAIN BY THE THU EVENING AND ALL SITES WILL MAINTAIN AN
MVFR STRATUS DECK. LEANED WITH THE NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE
ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS HAPPENING AS OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY
OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS COMMON DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

W/NW WINDS 10KT OR LESS THOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 172304
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
604 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET BUT SOMEWHAT DREARY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND PERHAPS EVEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS
TO BE A SYSTEM NEXT WEEK UPON WHICH THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
GREATLY AS IS TYPICAL AT SUCH TIME SCALES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET TONIGHT. EROSION OF LOW CLOUD IS TAKING
PLACE BUT EXPECT THAT SKIES WILL NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY AND MAY
CLOUD BACK UP OVERNIGHT. MODELS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THIS
IN GENERAL...BUT NAM 925 MB RH PROGS APPEAR FAIRLY REASONABLE
BASED ON WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON.

BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS WILL BE ON TEMPS. DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO
BOTTOM OUT COMPLETELY...ALTHOUGH ANY AREAS THAT DO MANAGE TO CLEAR
OUT FOR A BIT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE COOLER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS.
WILL GO NEAR RAW MODEL BLEND WHICH IS WARMER THAN MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT
MOISTURE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR. THAT SAID...Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS SOLID AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT LEAST
BRIEF SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WILL CARRY A
14 POP AND A CHANCE OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD. WILL
ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF SATURDAY. ANY PRECIP SHOULD
BE SNOW...WITH A SHOT AT SOME MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...IF ANY PRECIP REMAINS AT THAT TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED GENERALLY REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROGS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT WARMING
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL MODEL WILL BE ACCEPTED...BUT
THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS BOTH DEVELOP VERY STRONG SYSTEMS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BY MIDWEEK.  WITH SUCH SYSTEMS EVEN A SMALL
DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE GREAT. DEPENDING ON WHAT IS
CORRECT...INDIANA COULD HAVE A MAJOR WINTER STORM OR A MUCH LESSER
EVENT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT PROBABLY WONT BE POSSIBLE TO MAKE
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN MONDAY. UNTIL THEN
THE BEST STRATEGY MAY BE TO PLAN FOR THE WORST AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 559 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

MFVR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEN EXPECT ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILINGS TO HIGHER END MVFR BY LATE THIS MORNING. AN INVERSION
DEVELOPS AGAIN BY THE THU EVENING AND ALL SITES WILL MAINTAIN AN
MVFR STRATUS DECK. LEANED WITH THE NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE
ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS HAPPENING AS OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY
OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS COMMON DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

W/NW WINDS 10KT OR LESS THOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 172304
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
604 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET BUT SOMEWHAT DREARY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND PERHAPS EVEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS
TO BE A SYSTEM NEXT WEEK UPON WHICH THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
GREATLY AS IS TYPICAL AT SUCH TIME SCALES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET TONIGHT. EROSION OF LOW CLOUD IS TAKING
PLACE BUT EXPECT THAT SKIES WILL NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY AND MAY
CLOUD BACK UP OVERNIGHT. MODELS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THIS
IN GENERAL...BUT NAM 925 MB RH PROGS APPEAR FAIRLY REASONABLE
BASED ON WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON.

BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS WILL BE ON TEMPS. DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO
BOTTOM OUT COMPLETELY...ALTHOUGH ANY AREAS THAT DO MANAGE TO CLEAR
OUT FOR A BIT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE COOLER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS.
WILL GO NEAR RAW MODEL BLEND WHICH IS WARMER THAN MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT
MOISTURE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR. THAT SAID...Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS SOLID AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT LEAST
BRIEF SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WILL CARRY A
14 POP AND A CHANCE OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD. WILL
ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF SATURDAY. ANY PRECIP SHOULD
BE SNOW...WITH A SHOT AT SOME MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...IF ANY PRECIP REMAINS AT THAT TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED GENERALLY REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROGS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT WARMING
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL MODEL WILL BE ACCEPTED...BUT
THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS BOTH DEVELOP VERY STRONG SYSTEMS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BY MIDWEEK.  WITH SUCH SYSTEMS EVEN A SMALL
DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE GREAT. DEPENDING ON WHAT IS
CORRECT...INDIANA COULD HAVE A MAJOR WINTER STORM OR A MUCH LESSER
EVENT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT PROBABLY WONT BE POSSIBLE TO MAKE
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN MONDAY. UNTIL THEN
THE BEST STRATEGY MAY BE TO PLAN FOR THE WORST AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 180000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 559 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

MFVR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEN EXPECT ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILINGS TO HIGHER END MVFR BY LATE THIS MORNING. AN INVERSION
DEVELOPS AGAIN BY THE THU EVENING AND ALL SITES WILL MAINTAIN AN
MVFR STRATUS DECK. LEANED WITH THE NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE
ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS HAPPENING AS OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY
OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS COMMON DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

W/NW WINDS 10KT OR LESS THOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 172053
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
353 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET BUT SOMEWHAT DREARY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND PERHAPS EVEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS
TO BE A SYSTEM NEXT WEEK UPON WHICH THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
GREATLY AS IS TYPICAL AT SUCH TIME SCALES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET TONIGHT. EROSION OF LOW CLOUD IS TAKING
PLACE BUT EXPECT THAT SKIES WILL NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY AND MAY
CLOUD BACK UP OVERNIGHT. MODELS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THIS
IN GENERAL...BUT NAM 925 MB RH PROGS APPEAR FAIRLY REASONABLE
BASED ON WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON.

BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS WILL BE ON TEMPS. DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO
BOTTOM OUT COMPLETELY...ALTHOUGH ANY AREAS THAT DO MANAGE TO CLEAR
OUT FOR A BIT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE COOLER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS.
WILL GO NEAR RAW MODEL BLEND WHICH IS WARMER THAN MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT
MOISTURE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR. THAT SAID...Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS SOLID AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT LEAST
BRIEF SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WILL CARRY A
14 POP AND A CHANCE OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD. WILL
ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF SATURDAY. ANY PRECIP SHOULD
BE SNOW...WITH A SHOT AT SOME MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...IF ANY PRECIP REMAINS AT THAT TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED GENERALLY REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROGS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT WARMING
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL MODEL WILL BE ACCEPTED...BUT
THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS BOTH DEVELOP VERY STRONG SYSTEMS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BY MIDWEEK.  WITH SUCH SYSTEMS EVEN A SMALL
DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE GREAT. DEPENDING ON WHAT IS
CORRECT...INDIANA COULD HAVE A MAJOR WINTER STORM OR A MUCH LESSER
EVENT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT PROBABLY WONT BE POSSIBLE TO MAKE
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN MONDAY. UNTIL THEN
THE BEST STRATEGY MAY BE TO PLAN FOR THE WORST AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 172100Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD CYCLONIC
FLOW IS GOING TO MAINTAIN AN INVERSION A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL...TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE.

THURSDAY MORNING THE INVERSION SHOULD BREAK DUE TO THE ACTION OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL CAUSE THE MVFR DECK
TO SCATTER OUT AND BE REPLACED BY CEILINGS NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHOULD BE TOO LIGHT TO IMPACT OPERATIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW SLOWLY WEAKENS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&


$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 172053
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
353 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET BUT SOMEWHAT DREARY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND PERHAPS EVEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS
TO BE A SYSTEM NEXT WEEK UPON WHICH THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
GREATLY AS IS TYPICAL AT SUCH TIME SCALES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET TONIGHT. EROSION OF LOW CLOUD IS TAKING
PLACE BUT EXPECT THAT SKIES WILL NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY AND MAY
CLOUD BACK UP OVERNIGHT. MODELS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THIS
IN GENERAL...BUT NAM 925 MB RH PROGS APPEAR FAIRLY REASONABLE
BASED ON WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON.

BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS WILL BE ON TEMPS. DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO
BOTTOM OUT COMPLETELY...ALTHOUGH ANY AREAS THAT DO MANAGE TO CLEAR
OUT FOR A BIT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE COOLER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS.
WILL GO NEAR RAW MODEL BLEND WHICH IS WARMER THAN MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT
MOISTURE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR. THAT SAID...Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS SOLID AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT LEAST
BRIEF SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WILL CARRY A
14 POP AND A CHANCE OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD. WILL
ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF SATURDAY. ANY PRECIP SHOULD
BE SNOW...WITH A SHOT AT SOME MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...IF ANY PRECIP REMAINS AT THAT TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED GENERALLY REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROGS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT WARMING
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL MODEL WILL BE ACCEPTED...BUT
THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS BOTH DEVELOP VERY STRONG SYSTEMS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BY MIDWEEK.  WITH SUCH SYSTEMS EVEN A SMALL
DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE GREAT. DEPENDING ON WHAT IS
CORRECT...INDIANA COULD HAVE A MAJOR WINTER STORM OR A MUCH LESSER
EVENT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT PROBABLY WONT BE POSSIBLE TO MAKE
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN MONDAY. UNTIL THEN
THE BEST STRATEGY MAY BE TO PLAN FOR THE WORST AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 172100Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD CYCLONIC
FLOW IS GOING TO MAINTAIN AN INVERSION A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL...TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE.

THURSDAY MORNING THE INVERSION SHOULD BREAK DUE TO THE ACTION OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL CAUSE THE MVFR DECK
TO SCATTER OUT AND BE REPLACED BY CEILINGS NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHOULD BE TOO LIGHT TO IMPACT OPERATIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW SLOWLY WEAKENS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&


$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 172025
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
325 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

STILL SOME AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AROUND BASED ON RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A LOW LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...WHICH THE MODELS MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY BE LEFT DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WILL BE OVER BY SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...SO EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING. THE FAR
SOUTHWEST ZONES MAY SEE SOME BREAKS AROUND SUNSET...BUT THAT WOULD
BE ABOUT IT.

GIVEN COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY
ARE PROBABLY TOO WARM. WILL CUT THE HIGHS BY A CATEGORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
MIDWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SCOOTS ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
BEARING LAYER APPROACHES SATURATION ON THURSDAY...BUT THE LIFT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW THE
PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER. AT THIS TIME...IF ANYTHING HAPPENS IT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A FLURRY OR TRACE EVENT...WITH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SOME LIFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH. MODEL
DATA SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SATURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.

APPEARS THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...WILL NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE
GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 135 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL MODEL WILL BE ACCEPTED...BUT
THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS BOTH DEVELOP VERY STRONG SYSTEMS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BY MIDWEEK.  WITH SUCH SYSTEMS EVEN A SMALL
DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE GREAT. DEPENDING ON WHAT IS
CORRECT...INDIANA COULD HAVE A MAJOR WINTER STORM OR A MUCH LESSER
EVENT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT PROBABLY WONT BE POSSIBLE TO MAKE
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN MONDAY. UNTIL THEN
THE BEST STRATEGY MAY BE TO PLAN FOR THE WORST AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 172100Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD CYCLONIC
FLOW IS GOING TO MAINTAIN AN INVERSION A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL...TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE.

THURSDAY MORNING THE INVERSION SHOULD BREAK DUE TO THE ACTION OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL CAUSE THE MVFR DECK
TO SCATTER OUT AND BE REPLACED BY CEILINGS NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHOULD BE TOO LIGHT TO IMPACT OPERATIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW SLOWLY WEAKENS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 172025
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
325 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

STILL SOME AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AROUND BASED ON RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A LOW LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...WHICH THE MODELS MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY BE LEFT DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WILL BE OVER BY SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...SO EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING. THE FAR
SOUTHWEST ZONES MAY SEE SOME BREAKS AROUND SUNSET...BUT THAT WOULD
BE ABOUT IT.

GIVEN COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY
ARE PROBABLY TOO WARM. WILL CUT THE HIGHS BY A CATEGORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
MIDWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SCOOTS ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
BEARING LAYER APPROACHES SATURATION ON THURSDAY...BUT THE LIFT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW THE
PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER. AT THIS TIME...IF ANYTHING HAPPENS IT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A FLURRY OR TRACE EVENT...WITH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SOME LIFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH. MODEL
DATA SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SATURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.

APPEARS THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...WILL NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE
GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 135 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL MODEL WILL BE ACCEPTED...BUT
THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS BOTH DEVELOP VERY STRONG SYSTEMS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BY MIDWEEK.  WITH SUCH SYSTEMS EVEN A SMALL
DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE GREAT. DEPENDING ON WHAT IS
CORRECT...INDIANA COULD HAVE A MAJOR WINTER STORM OR A MUCH LESSER
EVENT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT PROBABLY WONT BE POSSIBLE TO MAKE
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN MONDAY. UNTIL THEN
THE BEST STRATEGY MAY BE TO PLAN FOR THE WORST AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 172100Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD CYCLONIC
FLOW IS GOING TO MAINTAIN AN INVERSION A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL...TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE.

THURSDAY MORNING THE INVERSION SHOULD BREAK DUE TO THE ACTION OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL CAUSE THE MVFR DECK
TO SCATTER OUT AND BE REPLACED BY CEILINGS NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHOULD BE TOO LIGHT TO IMPACT OPERATIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW SLOWLY WEAKENS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 171835
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
135 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

STILL SOME AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AROUND BASED ON RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A LOW LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...WHICH THE MODELS MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY BE LEFT DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WILL BE OVER BY SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...SO EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING. THE FAR
SOUTHWEST ZONES MAY SEE SOME BREAKS AROUND SUNSET...BUT THAT WOULD
BE ABOUT IT.

GIVEN COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY
ARE PROBABLY TOO WARM. WILL CUT THE HIGHS BY A CATEGORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
MIDWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SCOOTS ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
BEARING LAYER APPROACHES SATURATION ON THURSDAY...BUT THE LIFT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW THE
PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER. AT THIS TIME...IF ANYTHING HAPPENS IT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A FLURRY OR TRACE EVENT...WITH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SOME LIFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH. MODEL
DATA SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SATURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.

APPEARS THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...WILL NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE
GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 135 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL MODEL WILL BE ACCEPTED...BUT
THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS BOTH DEVELOP VERY STRONG SYSTEMS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BY MIDWEEK.  WITH SUCH SYSTEMS EVEN A SMALL
DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE GREAT. DEPENDING ON WHAT IS
CORRECT...INDIANA COULD HAVE A MAJOR WINTER STORM OR A MUCH LESSER
EVENT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT PROBABLY WONT BE POSSIBLE TO MAKE
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN MONDAY. UNTIL THEN
THE BEST STRATEGY MAY BE TO PLAN FOR THE WORST AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1152 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD CYCLONIC
FLOW IS GOING TO MAINTAIN AN INVERSION A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL...TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE.

THURSDAY MORNING THE INVERSION SHOULD BREAK DUE TO THE ACTION OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL CAUSE THE MVFR DECK
TO SCATTER OUT AND BE REPLACED BY CEILINGS NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHOULD BE TOO LIGHT TO IMPACT OPERATIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW SLOWLY WEAKENS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 171835
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
135 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

STILL SOME AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AROUND BASED ON RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A LOW LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...WHICH THE MODELS MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY BE LEFT DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WILL BE OVER BY SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...SO EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING. THE FAR
SOUTHWEST ZONES MAY SEE SOME BREAKS AROUND SUNSET...BUT THAT WOULD
BE ABOUT IT.

GIVEN COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY
ARE PROBABLY TOO WARM. WILL CUT THE HIGHS BY A CATEGORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
MIDWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SCOOTS ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
BEARING LAYER APPROACHES SATURATION ON THURSDAY...BUT THE LIFT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW THE
PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER. AT THIS TIME...IF ANYTHING HAPPENS IT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A FLURRY OR TRACE EVENT...WITH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SOME LIFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH. MODEL
DATA SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SATURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.

APPEARS THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...WILL NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE
GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 135 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL MODEL WILL BE ACCEPTED...BUT
THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS BOTH DEVELOP VERY STRONG SYSTEMS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BY MIDWEEK.  WITH SUCH SYSTEMS EVEN A SMALL
DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE GREAT. DEPENDING ON WHAT IS
CORRECT...INDIANA COULD HAVE A MAJOR WINTER STORM OR A MUCH LESSER
EVENT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT PROBABLY WONT BE POSSIBLE TO MAKE
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN MONDAY. UNTIL THEN
THE BEST STRATEGY MAY BE TO PLAN FOR THE WORST AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1152 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD CYCLONIC
FLOW IS GOING TO MAINTAIN AN INVERSION A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL...TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE.

THURSDAY MORNING THE INVERSION SHOULD BREAK DUE TO THE ACTION OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL CAUSE THE MVFR DECK
TO SCATTER OUT AND BE REPLACED BY CEILINGS NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHOULD BE TOO LIGHT TO IMPACT OPERATIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW SLOWLY WEAKENS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 171652
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1152 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

STILL SOME AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AROUND BASED ON RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A LOW LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...WHICH THE MODELS MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY BE LEFT DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WILL BE OVER BY SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...SO EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING. THE FAR
SOUTHWEST ZONES MAY SEE SOME BREAKS AROUND SUNSET...BUT THAT WOULD
BE ABOUT IT.

GIVEN COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY
ARE PROBABLY TOO WARM. WILL CUT THE HIGHS BY A CATEGORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
MIDWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SCOOTS ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
BEARING LAYER APPROACHES SATURATION ON THURSDAY...BUT THE LIFT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW THE
PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER. AT THIS TIME...IF ANYTHING HAPPENS IT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A FLURRY OR TRACE EVENT...WITH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SOME LIFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH. MODEL
DATA SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SATURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.

APPEARS THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...WILL NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE
GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED WILL BE FIRST ON A DEPARTING SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND AND THEN AN APPROACHING WHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT COULD
IMPACT THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. REGIONAL BLEND
WITH CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD. CRITICAL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST MOSTLY
SNOW BUT THAT SOME RAIN COULD MIX IN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. THEN...BUILDING WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS WAS ONCE AGAIN
QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CONSEQUENTLY BRINGS THE COLD AIR IN
QUICKER. VARIOUS WAVES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN RAIN
CHANCES STARTING MONDAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INDIANA AND SPREADING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW ...WILL
KEEP IT ALL RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTER WHICH IT SHOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW AND COULD BRING AN ACCUMULATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA IN TIME FOR
CHRISTMAS.

NEAR NORMAL REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S EXCEPT PERHAPS A BIT
WARMER ON TUESDAY AS WARM AIR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
DIGGING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1152 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD CYCLONIC
FLOW IS GOING TO MAINTAIN AN INVERSION A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL...TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE.

THURSDAY MORNING THE INVERSION SHOULD BREAK DUE TO THE ACTION OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL CAUSE THE MVFR DECK
TO SCATTER OUT AND BE REPLACED BY CEILINGS NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHOULD BE TOO LIGHT TO IMPACT OPERATIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW SLOWLY WEAKENS.



&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 171652
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1152 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

STILL SOME AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AROUND BASED ON RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A LOW LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...WHICH THE MODELS MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY BE LEFT DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WILL BE OVER BY SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...SO EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING. THE FAR
SOUTHWEST ZONES MAY SEE SOME BREAKS AROUND SUNSET...BUT THAT WOULD
BE ABOUT IT.

GIVEN COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY
ARE PROBABLY TOO WARM. WILL CUT THE HIGHS BY A CATEGORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
MIDWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SCOOTS ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
BEARING LAYER APPROACHES SATURATION ON THURSDAY...BUT THE LIFT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW THE
PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER. AT THIS TIME...IF ANYTHING HAPPENS IT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A FLURRY OR TRACE EVENT...WITH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SOME LIFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH. MODEL
DATA SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SATURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.

APPEARS THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...WILL NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE
GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED WILL BE FIRST ON A DEPARTING SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND AND THEN AN APPROACHING WHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT COULD
IMPACT THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. REGIONAL BLEND
WITH CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD. CRITICAL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST MOSTLY
SNOW BUT THAT SOME RAIN COULD MIX IN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. THEN...BUILDING WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS WAS ONCE AGAIN
QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CONSEQUENTLY BRINGS THE COLD AIR IN
QUICKER. VARIOUS WAVES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN RAIN
CHANCES STARTING MONDAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INDIANA AND SPREADING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW ...WILL
KEEP IT ALL RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTER WHICH IT SHOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW AND COULD BRING AN ACCUMULATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA IN TIME FOR
CHRISTMAS.

NEAR NORMAL REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S EXCEPT PERHAPS A BIT
WARMER ON TUESDAY AS WARM AIR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
DIGGING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1152 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD CYCLONIC
FLOW IS GOING TO MAINTAIN AN INVERSION A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL...TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE.

THURSDAY MORNING THE INVERSION SHOULD BREAK DUE TO THE ACTION OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL CAUSE THE MVFR DECK
TO SCATTER OUT AND BE REPLACED BY CEILINGS NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHOULD BE TOO LIGHT TO IMPACT OPERATIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW SLOWLY WEAKENS.



&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 171418
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
918 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

STILL SOME AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AROUND BASED ON RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A LOW LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...WHICH THE MODELS MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY BE LEFT DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WILL BE OVER BY SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...SO EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING. THE FAR
SOUTHWEST ZONES MAY SEE SOME BREAKS AROUND SUNSET...BUT THAT WOULD
BE ABOUT IT.

GIVEN COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY
ARE PROBABLY TOO WARM. WILL CUT THE HIGHS BY A CATEGORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
MIDWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SCOOTS ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
BEARING LAYER APPROACHES SATURATION ON THURSDAY...BUT THE LIFT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW THE
PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER. AT THIS TIME...IF ANYTHING HAPPENS IT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A FLURRY OR TRACE EVENT...WITH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SOME LIFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH. MODEL
DATA SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SATURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.

APPEARS THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...WILL NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE
GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED WILL BE FIRST ON A DEPARTING SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND AND THEN AN APPROACHING WHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT COULD
IMPACT THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. REGIONAL BLEND
WITH CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD. CRITICAL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST MOSTLY
SNOW BUT THAT SOME RAIN COULD MIX IN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. THEN...BUILDING WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS WAS ONCE AGAIN
QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CONSEQUENTLY BRINGS THE COLD AIR IN
QUICKER. VARIOUS WAVES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN RAIN
CHANCES STARTING MONDAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INDIANA AND SPREADING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW ...WILL
KEEP IT ALL RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTER WHICH IT SHOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW AND COULD BRING AN ACCUMULATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA IN TIME FOR
CHRISTMAS.

NEAR NORMAL REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S EXCEPT PERHAPS A BIT
WARMER ON TUESDAY AS WARM AIR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
DIGGING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 918 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THERE SHOULD BE MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD IN THE FORM OF A STRATOCUMULUS DECK.

WINDS WILL BE WEST AND NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY AND 5
KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 171418
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
918 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

STILL SOME AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AROUND BASED ON RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A LOW LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...WHICH THE MODELS MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY BE LEFT DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WILL BE OVER BY SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...SO EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING. THE FAR
SOUTHWEST ZONES MAY SEE SOME BREAKS AROUND SUNSET...BUT THAT WOULD
BE ABOUT IT.

GIVEN COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY
ARE PROBABLY TOO WARM. WILL CUT THE HIGHS BY A CATEGORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
MIDWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SCOOTS ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
BEARING LAYER APPROACHES SATURATION ON THURSDAY...BUT THE LIFT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW THE
PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER. AT THIS TIME...IF ANYTHING HAPPENS IT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A FLURRY OR TRACE EVENT...WITH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SOME LIFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH. MODEL
DATA SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SATURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.

APPEARS THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...WILL NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE
GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED WILL BE FIRST ON A DEPARTING SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND AND THEN AN APPROACHING WHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT COULD
IMPACT THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. REGIONAL BLEND
WITH CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD. CRITICAL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST MOSTLY
SNOW BUT THAT SOME RAIN COULD MIX IN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. THEN...BUILDING WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS WAS ONCE AGAIN
QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CONSEQUENTLY BRINGS THE COLD AIR IN
QUICKER. VARIOUS WAVES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN RAIN
CHANCES STARTING MONDAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INDIANA AND SPREADING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW ...WILL
KEEP IT ALL RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTER WHICH IT SHOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW AND COULD BRING AN ACCUMULATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA IN TIME FOR
CHRISTMAS.

NEAR NORMAL REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S EXCEPT PERHAPS A BIT
WARMER ON TUESDAY AS WARM AIR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
DIGGING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 918 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THERE SHOULD BE MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD IN THE FORM OF A STRATOCUMULUS DECK.

WINDS WILL BE WEST AND NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY AND 5
KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 171032
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
530 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

STILL SOME AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AROUND BASED ON RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A LOW LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...WHICH THE MODELS MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY BE LEFT DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WILL BE OVER BY SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...SO EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING. THE FAR
SOUTHWEST ZONES MAY SEE SOME BREAKS AROUND SUNSET...BUT THAT WOULD
BE ABOUT IT.

GIVEN COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY
ARE PROBABLY TOO WARM. WILL CUT THE HIGHS BY A CATEGORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
MIDWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SCOOTS ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
BEARING LAYER APPROACHES SATURATION ON THURSDAY...BUT THE LIFT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW THE
PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER. AT THIS TIME...IF ANYTHING HAPPENS IT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A FLURRY OR TRACE EVENT...WITH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SOME LIFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH. MODEL
DATA SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SATURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.

APPEARS THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...WILL NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE
GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED WILL BE FIRST ON A DEPARTING SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND AND THEN AN APPROACHING WHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT COULD
IMPACT THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. REGIONAL BLEND
WITH CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD. CRITICAL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST MOSTLY
SNOW BUT THAT SOME RAIN COULD MIX IN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. THEN...BUILDING WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS WAS ONCE AGAIN
QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CONSEQUENTLY BRINGS THE COLD AIR IN
QUICKER. VARIOUS WAVES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN RAIN
CHANCES STARTING MONDAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INDIANA AND SPREADING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW ...WILL
KEEP IT ALL RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTER WHICH IT SHOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW AND COULD BRING AN ACCUMULATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA IN TIME FOR
CHRISTMAS.

NEAR NORMAL REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S EXCEPT PERHAPS A BIT
WARMER ON TUESDAY AS WARM AIR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
DIGGING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 530 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

EXCEPT FOR BRIEF OCCASIONS...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN THE FORM OF A STRATOCUMULUS
DECK. BMG COULD BE AN EXCEPT WITH IFR MORE LIKELY UNTIL 15Z WHEN
CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.

WINDS WILL BE WEST AND NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY AND 5
KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

















000
FXUS63 KIND 170828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
326 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

STILL SOME AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AROUND BASED ON RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A LOW LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...WHICH THE MODELS MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY BE LEFT DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WILL BE OVER BY SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...SO EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING. THE FAR
SOUTHWEST ZONES MAY SEE SOME BREAKS AROUND SUNSET...BUT THAT WOULD
BE ABOUT IT.

GIVEN COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY
ARE PROBABLY TOO WARM. WILL CUT THE HIGHS BY A CATEGORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
MIDWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SCOOTS ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
BEARING LAYER APPROACHES SATURATION ON THURSDAY...BUT THE LIFT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW THE
PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER. AT THIS TIME...IF ANYTHING HAPPENS IT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A FLURRY OR TRACE EVENT...WITH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SOME LIFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH. MODEL
DATA SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SATURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.

APPEARS THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...WILL NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE
GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED WILL BE FIRST ON A DEPARTING SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND AND THEN AN APPROACHING WHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT COULD
IMPACT THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. REGIONAL BLEND
WITH CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD. CRITICAL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST MOSTLY
SNOW BUT THAT SOME RAIN COULD MIX IN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. THEN...BUILDING WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS WAS ONCE AGAIN
QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CONSEQUENTLY BRINGS THE COLD AIR IN
QUICKER. VARIOUS WAVES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN RAIN
CHANCES STARTING MONDAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INDIANA AND SPREADING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW ...WILL
KEEP IT ALL RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTER WHICH IT SHOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW AND COULD BRING AN ACCUMULATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA IN TIME FOR
CHRISTMAS.

NEAR NORMAL REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S EXCEPT PERHAPS A BIT
WARMER ON TUESDAY AS WARM AIR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
DIGGING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 170900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 326 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WILL GO WITH IFR CEILINGS IN SNOW THROUGH 10Z BASED ON TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A MIXTURE OF IFR/MFVR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEN EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS
TO LOW END MVFR BY LATE THIS MORNING. AND POSSIBLY VFR AT A FEW OF
THE SITES (NAMELY KLAF) BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FOR A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD BEFORE AN INVERSION DEVELOPS AGAIN BY THE EVENING AND ALL
SITES MAINTAIN AN MVFR STRATUS DECK ONCE AGAIN. LEANED CLOSER TO
THE NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS HAPPENING AS
OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS COMMON DURING
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE START OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH W/NW WINDS PERSISTING AROUND 10KTS FOR MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER...AOB 5KT OUT THE NW.

-SHSN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AT THE EASTERN MOST TAF SITES
(KIND/KBMG) BY 8/9Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...SMF/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 170828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
326 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

STILL SOME AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AROUND BASED ON RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A LOW LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...WHICH THE MODELS MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY BE LEFT DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WILL BE OVER BY SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...SO EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING. THE FAR
SOUTHWEST ZONES MAY SEE SOME BREAKS AROUND SUNSET...BUT THAT WOULD
BE ABOUT IT.

GIVEN COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY
ARE PROBABLY TOO WARM. WILL CUT THE HIGHS BY A CATEGORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
MIDWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SCOOTS ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
BEARING LAYER APPROACHES SATURATION ON THURSDAY...BUT THE LIFT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW THE
PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER. AT THIS TIME...IF ANYTHING HAPPENS IT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A FLURRY OR TRACE EVENT...WITH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SOME LIFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH. MODEL
DATA SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SATURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.

APPEARS THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...WILL NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE
GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED WILL BE FIRST ON A DEPARTING SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND AND THEN AN APPROACHING WHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT COULD
IMPACT THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. REGIONAL BLEND
WITH CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD. CRITICAL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST MOSTLY
SNOW BUT THAT SOME RAIN COULD MIX IN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. THEN...BUILDING WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS WAS ONCE AGAIN
QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CONSEQUENTLY BRINGS THE COLD AIR IN
QUICKER. VARIOUS WAVES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN RAIN
CHANCES STARTING MONDAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INDIANA AND SPREADING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW ...WILL
KEEP IT ALL RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTER WHICH IT SHOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW AND COULD BRING AN ACCUMULATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA IN TIME FOR
CHRISTMAS.

NEAR NORMAL REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S EXCEPT PERHAPS A BIT
WARMER ON TUESDAY AS WARM AIR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
DIGGING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 170900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 326 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WILL GO WITH IFR CEILINGS IN SNOW THROUGH 10Z BASED ON TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A MIXTURE OF IFR/MFVR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEN EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS
TO LOW END MVFR BY LATE THIS MORNING. AND POSSIBLY VFR AT A FEW OF
THE SITES (NAMELY KLAF) BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FOR A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD BEFORE AN INVERSION DEVELOPS AGAIN BY THE EVENING AND ALL
SITES MAINTAIN AN MVFR STRATUS DECK ONCE AGAIN. LEANED CLOSER TO
THE NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS HAPPENING AS
OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS COMMON DURING
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE START OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH W/NW WINDS PERSISTING AROUND 10KTS FOR MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER...AOB 5KT OUT THE NW.

-SHSN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AT THE EASTERN MOST TAF SITES
(KIND/KBMG) BY 8/9Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...SMF/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS















000
FXUS63 KIND 170828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
326 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

STILL SOME AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AROUND BASED ON RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A LOW LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...WHICH THE MODELS MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY BE LEFT DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WILL BE OVER BY SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...SO EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING. THE FAR
SOUTHWEST ZONES MAY SEE SOME BREAKS AROUND SUNSET...BUT THAT WOULD
BE ABOUT IT.

GIVEN COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY
ARE PROBABLY TOO WARM. WILL CUT THE HIGHS BY A CATEGORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
MIDWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SCOOTS ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
BEARING LAYER APPROACHES SATURATION ON THURSDAY...BUT THE LIFT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW THE
PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER. AT THIS TIME...IF ANYTHING HAPPENS IT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A FLURRY OR TRACE EVENT...WITH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SOME LIFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH. MODEL
DATA SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SATURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.

APPEARS THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...WILL NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE
GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED WILL BE FIRST ON A DEPARTING SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND AND THEN AN APPROACHING WHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT COULD
IMPACT THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. REGIONAL BLEND
WITH CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD. CRITICAL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST MOSTLY
SNOW BUT THAT SOME RAIN COULD MIX IN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. THEN...BUILDING WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS WAS ONCE AGAIN
QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CONSEQUENTLY BRINGS THE COLD AIR IN
QUICKER. VARIOUS WAVES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN RAIN
CHANCES STARTING MONDAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INDIANA AND SPREADING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW ...WILL
KEEP IT ALL RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTER WHICH IT SHOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW AND COULD BRING AN ACCUMULATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA IN TIME FOR
CHRISTMAS.

NEAR NORMAL REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S EXCEPT PERHAPS A BIT
WARMER ON TUESDAY AS WARM AIR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
DIGGING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 170900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 326 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WILL GO WITH IFR CEILINGS IN SNOW THROUGH 10Z BASED ON TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A MIXTURE OF IFR/MFVR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEN EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS
TO LOW END MVFR BY LATE THIS MORNING. AND POSSIBLY VFR AT A FEW OF
THE SITES (NAMELY KLAF) BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FOR A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD BEFORE AN INVERSION DEVELOPS AGAIN BY THE EVENING AND ALL
SITES MAINTAIN AN MVFR STRATUS DECK ONCE AGAIN. LEANED CLOSER TO
THE NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS HAPPENING AS
OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS COMMON DURING
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE START OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH W/NW WINDS PERSISTING AROUND 10KTS FOR MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER...AOB 5KT OUT THE NW.

-SHSN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AT THE EASTERN MOST TAF SITES
(KIND/KBMG) BY 8/9Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...SMF/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 170828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
326 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

STILL SOME AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AROUND BASED ON RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A LOW LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...WHICH THE MODELS MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY BE LEFT DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WILL BE OVER BY SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...SO EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING. THE FAR
SOUTHWEST ZONES MAY SEE SOME BREAKS AROUND SUNSET...BUT THAT WOULD
BE ABOUT IT.

GIVEN COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY
ARE PROBABLY TOO WARM. WILL CUT THE HIGHS BY A CATEGORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
MIDWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SCOOTS ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
BEARING LAYER APPROACHES SATURATION ON THURSDAY...BUT THE LIFT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW THE
PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER. AT THIS TIME...IF ANYTHING HAPPENS IT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A FLURRY OR TRACE EVENT...WITH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SOME LIFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH. MODEL
DATA SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SATURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.

APPEARS THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...WILL NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE
GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED WILL BE FIRST ON A DEPARTING SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND AND THEN AN APPROACHING WHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT COULD
IMPACT THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. REGIONAL BLEND
WITH CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD. CRITICAL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST MOSTLY
SNOW BUT THAT SOME RAIN COULD MIX IN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. THEN...BUILDING WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS WAS ONCE AGAIN
QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CONSEQUENTLY BRINGS THE COLD AIR IN
QUICKER. VARIOUS WAVES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN RAIN
CHANCES STARTING MONDAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INDIANA AND SPREADING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW ...WILL
KEEP IT ALL RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTER WHICH IT SHOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW AND COULD BRING AN ACCUMULATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA IN TIME FOR
CHRISTMAS.

NEAR NORMAL REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S EXCEPT PERHAPS A BIT
WARMER ON TUESDAY AS WARM AIR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
DIGGING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 170900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 326 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WILL GO WITH IFR CEILINGS IN SNOW THROUGH 10Z BASED ON TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A MIXTURE OF IFR/MFVR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEN EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS
TO LOW END MVFR BY LATE THIS MORNING. AND POSSIBLY VFR AT A FEW OF
THE SITES (NAMELY KLAF) BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FOR A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD BEFORE AN INVERSION DEVELOPS AGAIN BY THE EVENING AND ALL
SITES MAINTAIN AN MVFR STRATUS DECK ONCE AGAIN. LEANED CLOSER TO
THE NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS HAPPENING AS
OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS COMMON DURING
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE START OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH W/NW WINDS PERSISTING AROUND 10KTS FOR MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER...AOB 5KT OUT THE NW.

-SHSN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AT THE EASTERN MOST TAF SITES
(KIND/KBMG) BY 8/9Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...SMF/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS















000
FXUS63 KIND 170813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
312 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

STILL SOME AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AROUND BASED ON RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A LOW LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...WHICH THE MODELS MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY BE LEFT DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WILL BE OVER BY SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...SO EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING. THE FAR
SOUTHWEST ZONES MAY SEE SOME BREAKS AROUND SUNSET...BUT THAT WOULD
BE ABOUT IT.

GIVEN COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY
ARE PROBABLY TOO WARM. WILL CUT THE HIGHS BY A CATEGORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
MIDWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SCOOTS ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
BEARING LAYER APPROACHES SATURATION ON THURSDAY...BUT THE LIFT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW THE
PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER. AT THIS TIME...IF ANYTHING HAPPENS IT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A FLURRY OR TRACE EVENT...WITH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SOME LIFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH. MODEL
DATA SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SATURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.

APPEARS THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...WILL NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE
GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED WILL BE FIRST ON A DEPARTING SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND AND THEN AN APPROACHING WHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT COULD
IMPACT THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. REGIONAL BLEND
WITH CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD. CRITICAL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST MOSTLY
SNOW BUT THAT SOME RAIN COULD MIX IN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. THEN...BUILDING WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS WAS ONCE AGAIN
QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CONSEQUENTLY BRINGS THE COLD AIR IN
QUICKER. VARIOUS WAVES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN RAIN
CHANCES STARTING MONDAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INDIANA AND SPREADING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW ...WILL
KEEP IT ALL RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTER WHICH IT SHOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW AND COULD BRING AN ACCUMULATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA IN TIME FOR
CHRISTMAS.

NEAR NORMAL REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S EXCEPT PERHAPS A BIT
WARMER ON TUESDAY AS WARM AIR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
DIGGING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 170600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A MIXTURE OF IFR/MFVR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEN EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS
TO LOW END MVFR BY LATE THIS MORNING. AND POSSIBLY VFR AT A FEW OF
THE SITES (NAMELY KLAF) BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FOR A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD BEFORE AN INVERSION DEVELOPS AGAIN BY THE EVENING AND ALL
SITES MAINTAIN AN MVFR STRATUS DECK ONCE AGAIN. LEANED CLOSER TO
THE NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS HAPPENING AS
OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS COMMON DURING
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE START OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH W/NW WINDS PERSISTING AROUND 10KTS FOR MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER...AOB 5KT OUT THE NW.

-SHSN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AT THE EASTERN MOST TAF SITES
(KIND/KBMG) BY 8/9Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 170813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
312 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

STILL SOME AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AROUND BASED ON RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A LOW LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...WHICH THE MODELS MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY BE LEFT DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WILL BE OVER BY SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...SO EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING. THE FAR
SOUTHWEST ZONES MAY SEE SOME BREAKS AROUND SUNSET...BUT THAT WOULD
BE ABOUT IT.

GIVEN COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY
ARE PROBABLY TOO WARM. WILL CUT THE HIGHS BY A CATEGORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
MIDWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SCOOTS ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
BEARING LAYER APPROACHES SATURATION ON THURSDAY...BUT THE LIFT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW THE
PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER. AT THIS TIME...IF ANYTHING HAPPENS IT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A FLURRY OR TRACE EVENT...WITH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SOME LIFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH. MODEL
DATA SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SATURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.

APPEARS THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...WILL NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE
GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED WILL BE FIRST ON A DEPARTING SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND AND THEN AN APPROACHING WHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT COULD
IMPACT THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. REGIONAL BLEND
WITH CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD. CRITICAL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST MOSTLY
SNOW BUT THAT SOME RAIN COULD MIX IN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. THEN...BUILDING WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS WAS ONCE AGAIN
QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CONSEQUENTLY BRINGS THE COLD AIR IN
QUICKER. VARIOUS WAVES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN RAIN
CHANCES STARTING MONDAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INDIANA AND SPREADING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW ...WILL
KEEP IT ALL RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTER WHICH IT SHOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW AND COULD BRING AN ACCUMULATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA IN TIME FOR
CHRISTMAS.

NEAR NORMAL REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S EXCEPT PERHAPS A BIT
WARMER ON TUESDAY AS WARM AIR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
DIGGING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 170600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A MIXTURE OF IFR/MFVR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEN EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS
TO LOW END MVFR BY LATE THIS MORNING. AND POSSIBLY VFR AT A FEW OF
THE SITES (NAMELY KLAF) BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FOR A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD BEFORE AN INVERSION DEVELOPS AGAIN BY THE EVENING AND ALL
SITES MAINTAIN AN MVFR STRATUS DECK ONCE AGAIN. LEANED CLOSER TO
THE NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS HAPPENING AS
OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS COMMON DURING
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE START OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH W/NW WINDS PERSISTING AROUND 10KTS FOR MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER...AOB 5KT OUT THE NW.

-SHSN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AT THE EASTERN MOST TAF SITES
(KIND/KBMG) BY 8/9Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 170813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
312 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

STILL SOME AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AROUND BASED ON RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A LOW LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...WHICH THE MODELS MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY BE LEFT DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WILL BE OVER BY SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...SO EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING. THE FAR
SOUTHWEST ZONES MAY SEE SOME BREAKS AROUND SUNSET...BUT THAT WOULD
BE ABOUT IT.

GIVEN COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY
ARE PROBABLY TOO WARM. WILL CUT THE HIGHS BY A CATEGORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
MIDWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SCOOTS ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
BEARING LAYER APPROACHES SATURATION ON THURSDAY...BUT THE LIFT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW THE
PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER. AT THIS TIME...IF ANYTHING HAPPENS IT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A FLURRY OR TRACE EVENT...WITH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SOME LIFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH. MODEL
DATA SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SATURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.

APPEARS THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...WILL NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE
GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED WILL BE FIRST ON A DEPARTING SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND AND THEN AN APPROACHING WHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT COULD
IMPACT THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. REGIONAL BLEND
WITH CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD. CRITICAL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST MOSTLY
SNOW BUT THAT SOME RAIN COULD MIX IN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. THEN...BUILDING WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS WAS ONCE AGAIN
QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CONSEQUENTLY BRINGS THE COLD AIR IN
QUICKER. VARIOUS WAVES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN RAIN
CHANCES STARTING MONDAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INDIANA AND SPREADING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW ...WILL
KEEP IT ALL RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTER WHICH IT SHOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW AND COULD BRING AN ACCUMULATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA IN TIME FOR
CHRISTMAS.

NEAR NORMAL REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S EXCEPT PERHAPS A BIT
WARMER ON TUESDAY AS WARM AIR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
DIGGING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 170600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A MIXTURE OF IFR/MFVR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEN EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS
TO LOW END MVFR BY LATE THIS MORNING. AND POSSIBLY VFR AT A FEW OF
THE SITES (NAMELY KLAF) BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FOR A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD BEFORE AN INVERSION DEVELOPS AGAIN BY THE EVENING AND ALL
SITES MAINTAIN AN MVFR STRATUS DECK ONCE AGAIN. LEANED CLOSER TO
THE NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS HAPPENING AS
OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS COMMON DURING
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE START OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH W/NW WINDS PERSISTING AROUND 10KTS FOR MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER...AOB 5KT OUT THE NW.

-SHSN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AT THE EASTERN MOST TAF SITES
(KIND/KBMG) BY 8/9Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 170813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
312 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

STILL SOME AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AROUND BASED ON RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A LOW LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...WHICH THE MODELS MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY BE LEFT DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WILL BE OVER BY SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...SO EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING. THE FAR
SOUTHWEST ZONES MAY SEE SOME BREAKS AROUND SUNSET...BUT THAT WOULD
BE ABOUT IT.

GIVEN COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY
ARE PROBABLY TOO WARM. WILL CUT THE HIGHS BY A CATEGORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
MIDWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SCOOTS ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
BEARING LAYER APPROACHES SATURATION ON THURSDAY...BUT THE LIFT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW THE
PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER. AT THIS TIME...IF ANYTHING HAPPENS IT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A FLURRY OR TRACE EVENT...WITH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SOME LIFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH. MODEL
DATA SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SATURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.

APPEARS THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...WILL NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE
GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED WILL BE FIRST ON A DEPARTING SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND AND THEN AN APPROACHING WHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT COULD
IMPACT THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. REGIONAL BLEND
WITH CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD. CRITICAL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST MOSTLY
SNOW BUT THAT SOME RAIN COULD MIX IN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. THEN...BUILDING WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS WAS ONCE AGAIN
QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CONSEQUENTLY BRINGS THE COLD AIR IN
QUICKER. VARIOUS WAVES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN RAIN
CHANCES STARTING MONDAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INDIANA AND SPREADING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW ...WILL
KEEP IT ALL RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTER WHICH IT SHOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW AND COULD BRING AN ACCUMULATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA IN TIME FOR
CHRISTMAS.

NEAR NORMAL REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S EXCEPT PERHAPS A BIT
WARMER ON TUESDAY AS WARM AIR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
DIGGING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 170600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A MIXTURE OF IFR/MFVR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEN EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS
TO LOW END MVFR BY LATE THIS MORNING. AND POSSIBLY VFR AT A FEW OF
THE SITES (NAMELY KLAF) BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FOR A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD BEFORE AN INVERSION DEVELOPS AGAIN BY THE EVENING AND ALL
SITES MAINTAIN AN MVFR STRATUS DECK ONCE AGAIN. LEANED CLOSER TO
THE NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS HAPPENING AS
OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS COMMON DURING
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE START OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH W/NW WINDS PERSISTING AROUND 10KTS FOR MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER...AOB 5KT OUT THE NW.

-SHSN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AT THE EASTERN MOST TAF SITES
(KIND/KBMG) BY 8/9Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 170756
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
256 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

STILL SOME AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AROUND BASED ON RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A LOW LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...WHICH THE MODELS MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY BE LEFT DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WILL BE OVER BY SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...SO EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING. THE FAR
SOUTHWEST ZONES MAY SEE SOME BREAKS AROUND SUNSET...BUT THAT WOULD
BE ABOUT IT.

GIVEN COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY
ARE PROBABLY TOO WARM. WILL CUT THE HIGHS BY A CATEGORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
MIDWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SCOOTS ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
BEARING LAYER APPROACHES SATURATION ON THURSDAY...BUT THE LIFT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW THE
PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER. AT THIS TIME...IF ANYTHING HAPPENS IT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A FLURRY OR TRACE EVENT...WITH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SOME LIFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH. MODEL
DATA SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SATURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.

APPEARS THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...WILL NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE
GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SHAPING UP THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TWO
CHANCES FOR STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION.

FIRST FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL SNOW SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SANS
THE OP GFS REMAINS CLUSTERED ON A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH A MORE
SUPPRESSED TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DUE TO LITTLE
PHASING BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS. PRESENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE HOWEVER WILL EFFECTIVELY BRING MOISTURE
NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF SNOW BY SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER WAVE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A DRIER END TO THE WEEKEND. INTERESTING
TRENDS THEN DEVELOPING AS THE HOLIDAY WEEK PROGRESSES WITH SOME
STRONG INDICATIONS OF A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DEVELOPING OVER THE COUNTRY. PRESENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WILL PROMOTE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ENABLE PRECIP TO FALL AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE
REGION WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
HINTING AT AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE WAVE ON THE TRAILING FRONT AND
LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS A WINTER STORM.
REALLY EARLY IN THE PROCESS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS AS SOME GROWING POTENTIAL FOR PRE-
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 170600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A MIXTURE OF IFR/MFVR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEN EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS
TO LOW END MVFR BY LATE THIS MORNING. AND POSSIBLY VFR AT A FEW OF
THE SITES (NAMELY KLAF) BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FOR A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD BEFORE AN INVERSION DEVELOPS AGAIN BY THE EVENING AND ALL
SITES MAINTAIN AN MVFR STRATUS DECK ONCE AGAIN. LEANED CLOSER TO
THE NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS HAPPENING AS
OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS COMMON DURING
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE START OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH W/NW WINDS PERSISTING AROUND 10KTS FOR MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER...AOB 5KT OUT THE NW.

-SHSN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AT THE EASTERN MOST TAF SITES
(KIND/KBMG) BY 8/9Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 170756
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
256 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

STILL SOME AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AROUND BASED ON RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A LOW LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...WHICH THE MODELS MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY BE LEFT DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WILL BE OVER BY SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...SO EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING. THE FAR
SOUTHWEST ZONES MAY SEE SOME BREAKS AROUND SUNSET...BUT THAT WOULD
BE ABOUT IT.

GIVEN COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY
ARE PROBABLY TOO WARM. WILL CUT THE HIGHS BY A CATEGORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
MIDWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SCOOTS ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
BEARING LAYER APPROACHES SATURATION ON THURSDAY...BUT THE LIFT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW THE
PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER. AT THIS TIME...IF ANYTHING HAPPENS IT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A FLURRY OR TRACE EVENT...WITH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SOME LIFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH. MODEL
DATA SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SATURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.

APPEARS THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...WILL NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE
GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SHAPING UP THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TWO
CHANCES FOR STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION.

FIRST FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL SNOW SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SANS
THE OP GFS REMAINS CLUSTERED ON A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH A MORE
SUPPRESSED TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DUE TO LITTLE
PHASING BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS. PRESENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE HOWEVER WILL EFFECTIVELY BRING MOISTURE
NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF SNOW BY SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER WAVE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A DRIER END TO THE WEEKEND. INTERESTING
TRENDS THEN DEVELOPING AS THE HOLIDAY WEEK PROGRESSES WITH SOME
STRONG INDICATIONS OF A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DEVELOPING OVER THE COUNTRY. PRESENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WILL PROMOTE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ENABLE PRECIP TO FALL AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE
REGION WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
HINTING AT AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE WAVE ON THE TRAILING FRONT AND
LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS A WINTER STORM.
REALLY EARLY IN THE PROCESS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS AS SOME GROWING POTENTIAL FOR PRE-
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 170600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A MIXTURE OF IFR/MFVR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEN EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS
TO LOW END MVFR BY LATE THIS MORNING. AND POSSIBLY VFR AT A FEW OF
THE SITES (NAMELY KLAF) BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FOR A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD BEFORE AN INVERSION DEVELOPS AGAIN BY THE EVENING AND ALL
SITES MAINTAIN AN MVFR STRATUS DECK ONCE AGAIN. LEANED CLOSER TO
THE NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS HAPPENING AS
OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS COMMON DURING
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE START OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH W/NW WINDS PERSISTING AROUND 10KTS FOR MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER...AOB 5KT OUT THE NW.

-SHSN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AT THE EASTERN MOST TAF SITES
(KIND/KBMG) BY 8/9Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 170756
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
256 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

STILL SOME AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AROUND BASED ON RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A LOW LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...WHICH THE MODELS MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY BE LEFT DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WILL BE OVER BY SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...SO EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING. THE FAR
SOUTHWEST ZONES MAY SEE SOME BREAKS AROUND SUNSET...BUT THAT WOULD
BE ABOUT IT.

GIVEN COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY
ARE PROBABLY TOO WARM. WILL CUT THE HIGHS BY A CATEGORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
MIDWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SCOOTS ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
BEARING LAYER APPROACHES SATURATION ON THURSDAY...BUT THE LIFT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW THE
PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER. AT THIS TIME...IF ANYTHING HAPPENS IT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A FLURRY OR TRACE EVENT...WITH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SOME LIFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH. MODEL
DATA SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SATURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.

APPEARS THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...WILL NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE
GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SHAPING UP THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TWO
CHANCES FOR STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION.

FIRST FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL SNOW SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SANS
THE OP GFS REMAINS CLUSTERED ON A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH A MORE
SUPPRESSED TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DUE TO LITTLE
PHASING BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS. PRESENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE HOWEVER WILL EFFECTIVELY BRING MOISTURE
NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF SNOW BY SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER WAVE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A DRIER END TO THE WEEKEND. INTERESTING
TRENDS THEN DEVELOPING AS THE HOLIDAY WEEK PROGRESSES WITH SOME
STRONG INDICATIONS OF A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DEVELOPING OVER THE COUNTRY. PRESENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WILL PROMOTE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ENABLE PRECIP TO FALL AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE
REGION WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
HINTING AT AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE WAVE ON THE TRAILING FRONT AND
LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS A WINTER STORM.
REALLY EARLY IN THE PROCESS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS AS SOME GROWING POTENTIAL FOR PRE-
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 170600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A MIXTURE OF IFR/MFVR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEN EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS
TO LOW END MVFR BY LATE THIS MORNING. AND POSSIBLY VFR AT A FEW OF
THE SITES (NAMELY KLAF) BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FOR A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD BEFORE AN INVERSION DEVELOPS AGAIN BY THE EVENING AND ALL
SITES MAINTAIN AN MVFR STRATUS DECK ONCE AGAIN. LEANED CLOSER TO
THE NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS HAPPENING AS
OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS COMMON DURING
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE START OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH W/NW WINDS PERSISTING AROUND 10KTS FOR MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER...AOB 5KT OUT THE NW.

-SHSN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AT THE EASTERN MOST TAF SITES
(KIND/KBMG) BY 8/9Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 170756
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
256 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

STILL SOME AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AROUND BASED ON RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A LOW LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...WHICH THE MODELS MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY BE LEFT DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WILL BE OVER BY SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...SO EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING. THE FAR
SOUTHWEST ZONES MAY SEE SOME BREAKS AROUND SUNSET...BUT THAT WOULD
BE ABOUT IT.

GIVEN COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY
ARE PROBABLY TOO WARM. WILL CUT THE HIGHS BY A CATEGORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPPER BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
MIDWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SCOOTS ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
BEARING LAYER APPROACHES SATURATION ON THURSDAY...BUT THE LIFT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW THE
PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER. AT THIS TIME...IF ANYTHING HAPPENS IT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A FLURRY OR TRACE EVENT...WITH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SOME LIFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH. MODEL
DATA SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SATURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER...SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.

APPEARS THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...WILL NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE OF THE
GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SHAPING UP THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TWO
CHANCES FOR STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION.

FIRST FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL SNOW SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SANS
THE OP GFS REMAINS CLUSTERED ON A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH A MORE
SUPPRESSED TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DUE TO LITTLE
PHASING BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS. PRESENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE HOWEVER WILL EFFECTIVELY BRING MOISTURE
NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF SNOW BY SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER WAVE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A DRIER END TO THE WEEKEND. INTERESTING
TRENDS THEN DEVELOPING AS THE HOLIDAY WEEK PROGRESSES WITH SOME
STRONG INDICATIONS OF A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DEVELOPING OVER THE COUNTRY. PRESENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WILL PROMOTE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ENABLE PRECIP TO FALL AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE
REGION WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
HINTING AT AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE WAVE ON THE TRAILING FRONT AND
LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS A WINTER STORM.
REALLY EARLY IN THE PROCESS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS AS SOME GROWING POTENTIAL FOR PRE-
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 170600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A MIXTURE OF IFR/MFVR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEN EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS
TO LOW END MVFR BY LATE THIS MORNING. AND POSSIBLY VFR AT A FEW OF
THE SITES (NAMELY KLAF) BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FOR A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD BEFORE AN INVERSION DEVELOPS AGAIN BY THE EVENING AND ALL
SITES MAINTAIN AN MVFR STRATUS DECK ONCE AGAIN. LEANED CLOSER TO
THE NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS HAPPENING AS
OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS COMMON DURING
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE START OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH W/NW WINDS PERSISTING AROUND 10KTS FOR MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER...AOB 5KT OUT THE NW.

-SHSN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AT THE EASTERN MOST TAF SITES
(KIND/KBMG) BY 8/9Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 170446
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1146 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEPART SLOWLY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE SOME COOLER CANADIAN AIR TO THE
AREA...RESULTING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 824 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE SEEN SOME ECHOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH
AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH. THESE ARE MORE INTENSE THAN JUST
DRIZZLE SO EARLIER UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING BOTH PRECIPITATION TYPES UNDER
THESE ECHOES. ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION /WATER EQUIVALENT...NOT
ANTICIPATING ACCUMULATING SNOW/ WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD MOVE OUT IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL REMAIN AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD BE DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS THINK CHANCES FOR FLURRIES AND
FREEZING LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT...FINALLY ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE
SURFACE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY. ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SO IMPACT SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ELEVATED LOCATIONS SUCH AS BRIDGES THAT COULD
COOL FASTER.

LOW TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30
WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS STAYING UP
SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

ON WEDNESDAY THE SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLY THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CONUS. LOWER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
REMAIN CYCLONIC ON WEDNESDAY AND RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT TO
THE WEST. THIS KEEPS INDIANA ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND
CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING IS LOW. FURTHER SUPPORT IS SEEN THE THE
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS WHICH CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A THIN LAYER OF
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS WILL TREND SKIES TOWARD MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY. WILL ALSO TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE DEEP SOUTH. RIDGING IN THE
MIDDLE LEVEL ARRIVES IN CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE LOWER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COMES TO AN END. THUS WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN THE
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY AT THIS TIME WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALOFT A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL
STREAM THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON THURSDAY AND
EXIT ON FRIDAY...BUT NO MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA KEEPS DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IN PLACE.
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH ON THURSDAY. THE GFS ALSO SUGGESTS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THE 290K GFS ISENTROPIC
SURFACE REVEALS GOOD LIFT ACROSS OK AND TX...BUT THIS LIFT DOES
RESULT IN THE ARRIVAL OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID AND HIGHER LEVEL SATURATION BEGINNING
THURSDAY AS THIS WEAK LOW BEGINS ITS TREK THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.
OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINS MINIMAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. THUS WILL JUST TREND TOWARD INCREASING
CLOUDS ON THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
TREND HIGHS CLOSE TO MAV/MEX VALUES GIVEN THE RETURN OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND CLOUDS. WILL TREND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WARMER GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SHAPING UP THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TWO
CHANCES FOR STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION.

FIRST FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL SNOW SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SANS
THE OP GFS REMAINS CLUSTERED ON A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH A MORE
SUPPRESSED TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DUE TO LITTLE
PHASING BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS. PRESENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE HOWEVER WILL EFFECTIVELY BRING MOISTURE
NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF SNOW BY SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER WAVE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A DRIER END TO THE WEEKEND. INTERESTING
TRENDS THEN DEVELOPING AS THE HOLIDAY WEEK PROGRESSES WITH SOME
STRONG INDICATIONS OF A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DEVELOPING OVER THE COUNTRY. PRESENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WILL PROMOTE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ENABLE PRECIP TO FALL AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE
REGION WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
HINTING AT AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE WAVE ON THE TRAILING FRONT AND
LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS A WINTER STORM.
REALLY EARLY IN THE PROCESS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS AS SOME GROWING POTENTIAL FOR PRE-
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 170600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A MIXTURE OF IFR/MFVR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEN EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS
TO LOW END MVFR BY LATE THIS MORNING. AND POSSIBLY VFR AT A FEW OF
THE SITES (NAMELY KLAF) BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FOR A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD BEFORE AN INVERSION DEVELOPS AGAIN BY THE EVENING AND ALL
SITES MAINTAIN AN MVFR STRATUS DECK ONCE AGAIN. LEANED CLOSER TO
THE NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS HAPPENING AS
OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS COMMON DURING
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE START OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH W/NW WINDS PERSISTING AROUND 10KTS FOR MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER...AOB 5KT OUT THE NW.

-SHSN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AT THE EASTERN MOST TAF SITES
(KIND/KBMG) BY 8/9Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 170446
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1146 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEPART SLOWLY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE SOME COOLER CANADIAN AIR TO THE
AREA...RESULTING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 824 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE SEEN SOME ECHOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH
AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH. THESE ARE MORE INTENSE THAN JUST
DRIZZLE SO EARLIER UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING BOTH PRECIPITATION TYPES UNDER
THESE ECHOES. ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION /WATER EQUIVALENT...NOT
ANTICIPATING ACCUMULATING SNOW/ WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD MOVE OUT IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL REMAIN AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD BE DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS THINK CHANCES FOR FLURRIES AND
FREEZING LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT...FINALLY ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE
SURFACE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY. ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SO IMPACT SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ELEVATED LOCATIONS SUCH AS BRIDGES THAT COULD
COOL FASTER.

LOW TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30
WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS STAYING UP
SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

ON WEDNESDAY THE SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLY THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CONUS. LOWER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
REMAIN CYCLONIC ON WEDNESDAY AND RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT TO
THE WEST. THIS KEEPS INDIANA ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND
CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING IS LOW. FURTHER SUPPORT IS SEEN THE THE
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS WHICH CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A THIN LAYER OF
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS WILL TREND SKIES TOWARD MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY. WILL ALSO TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE DEEP SOUTH. RIDGING IN THE
MIDDLE LEVEL ARRIVES IN CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE LOWER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COMES TO AN END. THUS WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN THE
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY AT THIS TIME WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALOFT A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL
STREAM THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON THURSDAY AND
EXIT ON FRIDAY...BUT NO MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA KEEPS DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IN PLACE.
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH ON THURSDAY. THE GFS ALSO SUGGESTS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THE 290K GFS ISENTROPIC
SURFACE REVEALS GOOD LIFT ACROSS OK AND TX...BUT THIS LIFT DOES
RESULT IN THE ARRIVAL OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID AND HIGHER LEVEL SATURATION BEGINNING
THURSDAY AS THIS WEAK LOW BEGINS ITS TREK THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.
OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINS MINIMAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. THUS WILL JUST TREND TOWARD INCREASING
CLOUDS ON THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
TREND HIGHS CLOSE TO MAV/MEX VALUES GIVEN THE RETURN OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND CLOUDS. WILL TREND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WARMER GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SHAPING UP THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TWO
CHANCES FOR STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION.

FIRST FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL SNOW SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SANS
THE OP GFS REMAINS CLUSTERED ON A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH A MORE
SUPPRESSED TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DUE TO LITTLE
PHASING BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS. PRESENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE HOWEVER WILL EFFECTIVELY BRING MOISTURE
NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF SNOW BY SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER WAVE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A DRIER END TO THE WEEKEND. INTERESTING
TRENDS THEN DEVELOPING AS THE HOLIDAY WEEK PROGRESSES WITH SOME
STRONG INDICATIONS OF A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DEVELOPING OVER THE COUNTRY. PRESENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WILL PROMOTE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ENABLE PRECIP TO FALL AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE
REGION WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
HINTING AT AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE WAVE ON THE TRAILING FRONT AND
LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS A WINTER STORM.
REALLY EARLY IN THE PROCESS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS AS SOME GROWING POTENTIAL FOR PRE-
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 170600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A MIXTURE OF IFR/MFVR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEN EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS
TO LOW END MVFR BY LATE THIS MORNING. AND POSSIBLY VFR AT A FEW OF
THE SITES (NAMELY KLAF) BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FOR A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD BEFORE AN INVERSION DEVELOPS AGAIN BY THE EVENING AND ALL
SITES MAINTAIN AN MVFR STRATUS DECK ONCE AGAIN. LEANED CLOSER TO
THE NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS HAPPENING AS
OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS COMMON DURING
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE START OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH W/NW WINDS PERSISTING AROUND 10KTS FOR MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER...AOB 5KT OUT THE NW.

-SHSN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AT THE EASTERN MOST TAF SITES
(KIND/KBMG) BY 8/9Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 170446
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1146 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEPART SLOWLY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE SOME COOLER CANADIAN AIR TO THE
AREA...RESULTING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 824 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE SEEN SOME ECHOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH
AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH. THESE ARE MORE INTENSE THAN JUST
DRIZZLE SO EARLIER UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING BOTH PRECIPITATION TYPES UNDER
THESE ECHOES. ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION /WATER EQUIVALENT...NOT
ANTICIPATING ACCUMULATING SNOW/ WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD MOVE OUT IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL REMAIN AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD BE DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS THINK CHANCES FOR FLURRIES AND
FREEZING LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT...FINALLY ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE
SURFACE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY. ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SO IMPACT SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ELEVATED LOCATIONS SUCH AS BRIDGES THAT COULD
COOL FASTER.

LOW TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30
WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS STAYING UP
SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

ON WEDNESDAY THE SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLY THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CONUS. LOWER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
REMAIN CYCLONIC ON WEDNESDAY AND RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT TO
THE WEST. THIS KEEPS INDIANA ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND
CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING IS LOW. FURTHER SUPPORT IS SEEN THE THE
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS WHICH CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A THIN LAYER OF
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS WILL TREND SKIES TOWARD MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY. WILL ALSO TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE DEEP SOUTH. RIDGING IN THE
MIDDLE LEVEL ARRIVES IN CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE LOWER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COMES TO AN END. THUS WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN THE
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY AT THIS TIME WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALOFT A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL
STREAM THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON THURSDAY AND
EXIT ON FRIDAY...BUT NO MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA KEEPS DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IN PLACE.
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH ON THURSDAY. THE GFS ALSO SUGGESTS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THE 290K GFS ISENTROPIC
SURFACE REVEALS GOOD LIFT ACROSS OK AND TX...BUT THIS LIFT DOES
RESULT IN THE ARRIVAL OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID AND HIGHER LEVEL SATURATION BEGINNING
THURSDAY AS THIS WEAK LOW BEGINS ITS TREK THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.
OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINS MINIMAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. THUS WILL JUST TREND TOWARD INCREASING
CLOUDS ON THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
TREND HIGHS CLOSE TO MAV/MEX VALUES GIVEN THE RETURN OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND CLOUDS. WILL TREND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WARMER GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SHAPING UP THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TWO
CHANCES FOR STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION.

FIRST FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL SNOW SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SANS
THE OP GFS REMAINS CLUSTERED ON A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH A MORE
SUPPRESSED TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DUE TO LITTLE
PHASING BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS. PRESENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE HOWEVER WILL EFFECTIVELY BRING MOISTURE
NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF SNOW BY SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER WAVE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A DRIER END TO THE WEEKEND. INTERESTING
TRENDS THEN DEVELOPING AS THE HOLIDAY WEEK PROGRESSES WITH SOME
STRONG INDICATIONS OF A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DEVELOPING OVER THE COUNTRY. PRESENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WILL PROMOTE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ENABLE PRECIP TO FALL AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE
REGION WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
HINTING AT AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE WAVE ON THE TRAILING FRONT AND
LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS A WINTER STORM.
REALLY EARLY IN THE PROCESS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS AS SOME GROWING POTENTIAL FOR PRE-
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 170600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A MIXTURE OF IFR/MFVR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEN EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS
TO LOW END MVFR BY LATE THIS MORNING. AND POSSIBLY VFR AT A FEW OF
THE SITES (NAMELY KLAF) BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FOR A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD BEFORE AN INVERSION DEVELOPS AGAIN BY THE EVENING AND ALL
SITES MAINTAIN AN MVFR STRATUS DECK ONCE AGAIN. LEANED CLOSER TO
THE NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS HAPPENING AS
OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS COMMON DURING
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE START OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH W/NW WINDS PERSISTING AROUND 10KTS FOR MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER...AOB 5KT OUT THE NW.

-SHSN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AT THE EASTERN MOST TAF SITES
(KIND/KBMG) BY 8/9Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 170446
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1146 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEPART SLOWLY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE SOME COOLER CANADIAN AIR TO THE
AREA...RESULTING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 824 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE SEEN SOME ECHOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH
AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH. THESE ARE MORE INTENSE THAN JUST
DRIZZLE SO EARLIER UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING BOTH PRECIPITATION TYPES UNDER
THESE ECHOES. ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION /WATER EQUIVALENT...NOT
ANTICIPATING ACCUMULATING SNOW/ WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD MOVE OUT IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL REMAIN AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD BE DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS THINK CHANCES FOR FLURRIES AND
FREEZING LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT...FINALLY ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE
SURFACE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY. ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SO IMPACT SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ELEVATED LOCATIONS SUCH AS BRIDGES THAT COULD
COOL FASTER.

LOW TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30
WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS STAYING UP
SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

ON WEDNESDAY THE SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLY THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CONUS. LOWER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
REMAIN CYCLONIC ON WEDNESDAY AND RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT TO
THE WEST. THIS KEEPS INDIANA ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND
CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING IS LOW. FURTHER SUPPORT IS SEEN THE THE
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS WHICH CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A THIN LAYER OF
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS WILL TREND SKIES TOWARD MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY. WILL ALSO TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE DEEP SOUTH. RIDGING IN THE
MIDDLE LEVEL ARRIVES IN CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE LOWER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COMES TO AN END. THUS WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN THE
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY AT THIS TIME WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALOFT A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL
STREAM THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON THURSDAY AND
EXIT ON FRIDAY...BUT NO MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA KEEPS DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IN PLACE.
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH ON THURSDAY. THE GFS ALSO SUGGESTS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THE 290K GFS ISENTROPIC
SURFACE REVEALS GOOD LIFT ACROSS OK AND TX...BUT THIS LIFT DOES
RESULT IN THE ARRIVAL OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID AND HIGHER LEVEL SATURATION BEGINNING
THURSDAY AS THIS WEAK LOW BEGINS ITS TREK THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.
OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINS MINIMAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. THUS WILL JUST TREND TOWARD INCREASING
CLOUDS ON THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
TREND HIGHS CLOSE TO MAV/MEX VALUES GIVEN THE RETURN OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND CLOUDS. WILL TREND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WARMER GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SHAPING UP THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TWO
CHANCES FOR STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION.

FIRST FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL SNOW SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SANS
THE OP GFS REMAINS CLUSTERED ON A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH A MORE
SUPPRESSED TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DUE TO LITTLE
PHASING BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS. PRESENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE HOWEVER WILL EFFECTIVELY BRING MOISTURE
NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF SNOW BY SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER WAVE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A DRIER END TO THE WEEKEND. INTERESTING
TRENDS THEN DEVELOPING AS THE HOLIDAY WEEK PROGRESSES WITH SOME
STRONG INDICATIONS OF A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DEVELOPING OVER THE COUNTRY. PRESENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WILL PROMOTE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ENABLE PRECIP TO FALL AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE
REGION WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
HINTING AT AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE WAVE ON THE TRAILING FRONT AND
LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS A WINTER STORM.
REALLY EARLY IN THE PROCESS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS AS SOME GROWING POTENTIAL FOR PRE-
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 170600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A MIXTURE OF IFR/MFVR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEN EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS
TO LOW END MVFR BY LATE THIS MORNING. AND POSSIBLY VFR AT A FEW OF
THE SITES (NAMELY KLAF) BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FOR A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD BEFORE AN INVERSION DEVELOPS AGAIN BY THE EVENING AND ALL
SITES MAINTAIN AN MVFR STRATUS DECK ONCE AGAIN. LEANED CLOSER TO
THE NAM GUIDANCE WHICH MORE ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS HAPPENING AS
OPPOSED TO THE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC MAV/GFS WHICH IS COMMON DURING
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE START OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH W/NW WINDS PERSISTING AROUND 10KTS FOR MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER...AOB 5KT OUT THE NW.

-SHSN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AT THE EASTERN MOST TAF SITES
(KIND/KBMG) BY 8/9Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 170238
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
938 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEPART SLOWLY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE SOME COOLER CANADIAN AIR TO THE
AREA...RESULTING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 824 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE SEEN SOME ECHOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH
AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH. THESE ARE MORE INTENSE THAN JUST
DRIZZLE SO EARLIER UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING BOTH PRECIPITATION TYPES UNDER
THESE ECHOES. ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION /WATER EQUIVALENT...NOT
ANTICIPATING ACCUMULATING SNOW/ WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD MOVE OUT IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL REMAIN AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD BE DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS THINK CHANCES FOR FLURRIES AND
FREEZING LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT...FINALLY ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE
SURFACE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY. ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SO IMPACT SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ELEVATED LOCATIONS SUCH AS BRIDGES THAT COULD
COOL FASTER.

LOW TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30
WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS STAYING UP
SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

ON WEDNESDAY THE SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLY THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CONUS. LOWER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
REMAIN CYCLONIC ON WEDNESDAY AND RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT TO
THE WEST. THIS KEEPS INDIANA ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND
CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING IS LOW. FURTHER SUPPORT IS SEEN THE THE
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS WHICH CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A THIN LAYER OF
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS WILL TREND SKIES TOWARD MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY. WILL ALSO TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE DEEP SOUTH. RIDGING IN THE
MIDDLE LEVEL ARRIVES IN CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE LOWER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COMES TO AN END. THUS WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN THE
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY AT THIS TIME WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALOFT A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL
STREAM THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON THURSDAY AND
EXIT ON FRIDAY...BUT NO MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA KEEPS DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IN PLACE.
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH ON THURSDAY. THE GFS ALSO SUGGESTS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THE 290K GFS ISENTROPIC
SURFACE REVEALS GOOD LIFT ACROSS OK AND TX...BUT THIS LIFT DOES
RESULT IN THE ARRIVAL OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID AND HIGHER LEVEL SATURATION BEGINNING
THURSDAY AS THIS WEAK LOW BEGINS ITS TREK THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.
OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINS MINIMAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. THUS WILL JUST TREND TOWARD INCREASING
CLOUDS ON THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
TREND HIGHS CLOSE TO MAV/MEX VALUES GIVEN THE RETURN OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND CLOUDS. WILL TREND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WARMER GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SHAPING UP THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TWO
CHANCES FOR STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION.

FIRST FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL SNOW SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SANS
THE OP GFS REMAINS CLUSTERED ON A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH A MORE
SUPPRESSED TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DUE TO LITTLE
PHASING BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS. PRESENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE HOWEVER WILL EFFECTIVELY BRING MOISTURE
NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF SNOW BY SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER WAVE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A DRIER END TO THE WEEKEND. INTERESTING
TRENDS THEN DEVELOPING AS THE HOLIDAY WEEK PROGRESSES WITH SOME
STRONG INDICATIONS OF A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DEVELOPING OVER THE COUNTRY. PRESENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WILL PROMOTE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ENABLE PRECIP TO FALL AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE
REGION WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
HINTING AT AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE WAVE ON THE TRAILING FRONT AND
LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS A WINTER STORM.
REALLY EARLY IN THE PROCESS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS AS SOME GROWING POTENTIAL FOR PRE-
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 170000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 934 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

0230Z UPDATE...UPDATED THE TAFS AND MADE SOME MINOR
MODIFICATIONS...MAINLY DUE TO COLDER TRENDS WITH PRECIP AFFECTING
KIND AND KBMG WHICH IS IN THE FORM OF -SN. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND THEN TAPER OFF TO -SHSN FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE AREA. KLAF/KHUF ALREADY REPORTING LOW END
MVFR...AND THIS TREND WILL EVENTUALLY EXTEND TO SITES TO THE EAST
SUCH AS KIND/KBMG EARLY WED MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MIXTURE OF IFR/MFVR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS TO MVFR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AND
POSSIBLY VFR AT A FEW OF THE SITES BY LATE WED AFTERNOON.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A SHALLOW INVERSION WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN THE STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 1000-2000FT. MANY LOCATIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO REPORT -DZ FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH FLURRIES
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LOST AND THE AIRMASS
COOLS. COULD EVEN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER 06Z
AS FURTHER DRYING OCCURS ABOVE THE INVERSION. NOT MAKING A MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING DESPITE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH W/NW WINDS PERSISTING AT 10-15KTS FOR MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 170124
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
824 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEPART SLOWLY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE SOME COOLER CANADIAN AIR TO THE
AREA...RESULTING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 824 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE SEEN SOME ECHOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH
AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH. THESE ARE MORE INTENSE THAN JUST
DRIZZLE SO EARLIER UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING BOTH PRECIPITATION TYPES UNDER
THESE ECHOES. ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION /WATER EQUIVALENT...NOT
ANTICIPATING ACCUMULATING SNOW/ WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD MOVE OUT IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL REMAIN AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD BE DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS THINK CHANCES FOR FLURRIES AND
FREEZING LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT...FINALLY ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE
SURFACE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY. ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SO IMPACT SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ELEVATED LOCATIONS SUCH AS BRIDGES THAT COULD
COOL FASTER.

LOW TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30
WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS STAYING UP
SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

ON WEDNESDAY THE SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLY THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CONUS. LOWER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
REMAIN CYCLONIC ON WEDNESDAY AND RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT TO
THE WEST. THIS KEEPS INDIANA ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND
CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING IS LOW. FURTHER SUPPORT IS SEEN THE THE
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS WHICH CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A THIN LAYER OF
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS WILL TREND SKIES TOWARD MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY. WILL ALSO TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE DEEP SOUTH. RIDGING IN THE
MIDDLE LEVEL ARRIVES IN CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE LOWER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COMES TO AN END. THUS WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN THE
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY AT THIS TIME WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALOFT A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL
STREAM THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON THURSDAY AND
EXIT ON FRIDAY...BUT NO MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA KEEPS DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IN PLACE.
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH ON THURSDAY. THE GFS ALSO SUGGESTS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THE 290K GFS ISENTROPIC
SURFACE REVEALS GOOD LIFT ACROSS OK AND TX...BUT THIS LIFT DOES
RESULT IN THE ARRIVAL OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID AND HIGHER LEVEL SATURATION BEGINNING
THURSDAY AS THIS WEAK LOW BEGINS ITS TREK THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.
OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINS MINIMAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. THUS WILL JUST TREND TOWARD INCREASING
CLOUDS ON THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
TREND HIGHS CLOSE TO MAV/MEX VALUES GIVEN THE RETURN OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND CLOUDS. WILL TREND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WARMER GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SHAPING UP THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TWO
CHANCES FOR STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION.

FIRST FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL SNOW SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SANS
THE OP GFS REMAINS CLUSTERED ON A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH A MORE
SUPPRESSED TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DUE TO LITTLE
PHASING BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS. PRESENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE HOWEVER WILL EFFECTIVELY BRING MOISTURE
NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF SNOW BY SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER WAVE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A DRIER END TO THE WEEKEND. INTERESTING
TRENDS THEN DEVELOPING AS THE HOLIDAY WEEK PROGRESSES WITH SOME
STRONG INDICATIONS OF A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DEVELOPING OVER THE COUNTRY. PRESENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WILL PROMOTE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ENABLE PRECIP TO FALL AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE
REGION WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
HINTING AT AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE WAVE ON THE TRAILING FRONT AND
LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS A WINTER STORM.
REALLY EARLY IN THE PROCESS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS AS SOME GROWING POTENTIAL FOR PRE-
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 170000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 602 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

MIXTURE OF IFR/MFVR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS TO MVFR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AND
POSSIBLY VFR AT A FEW OF THE SITES BY LATE WED AFTERNOON.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A SHALLOW INVERSION WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN THE STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 1000-2000FT. MANY LOCATIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO REPORT -DZ FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH FLURRIES
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LOST AND THE AIRMASS
COOLS. COULD EVEN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER 06Z
AS FURTHER DRYING OCCURS ABOVE THE INVERSION. NOT MAKING A MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING DESPITE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH W/NW WINDS PERSISTING AT 10-15KTS FOR MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 170124
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
824 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEPART SLOWLY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE SOME COOLER CANADIAN AIR TO THE
AREA...RESULTING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 824 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE SEEN SOME ECHOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH
AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH. THESE ARE MORE INTENSE THAN JUST
DRIZZLE SO EARLIER UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING BOTH PRECIPITATION TYPES UNDER
THESE ECHOES. ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION /WATER EQUIVALENT...NOT
ANTICIPATING ACCUMULATING SNOW/ WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD MOVE OUT IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL REMAIN AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD BE DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS THINK CHANCES FOR FLURRIES AND
FREEZING LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT...FINALLY ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE
SURFACE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY. ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SO IMPACT SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ELEVATED LOCATIONS SUCH AS BRIDGES THAT COULD
COOL FASTER.

LOW TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30
WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS STAYING UP
SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

ON WEDNESDAY THE SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLY THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CONUS. LOWER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
REMAIN CYCLONIC ON WEDNESDAY AND RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT TO
THE WEST. THIS KEEPS INDIANA ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND
CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING IS LOW. FURTHER SUPPORT IS SEEN THE THE
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS WHICH CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A THIN LAYER OF
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS WILL TREND SKIES TOWARD MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY. WILL ALSO TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE DEEP SOUTH. RIDGING IN THE
MIDDLE LEVEL ARRIVES IN CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE LOWER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COMES TO AN END. THUS WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN THE
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY AT THIS TIME WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALOFT A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL
STREAM THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON THURSDAY AND
EXIT ON FRIDAY...BUT NO MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA KEEPS DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IN PLACE.
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH ON THURSDAY. THE GFS ALSO SUGGESTS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THE 290K GFS ISENTROPIC
SURFACE REVEALS GOOD LIFT ACROSS OK AND TX...BUT THIS LIFT DOES
RESULT IN THE ARRIVAL OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID AND HIGHER LEVEL SATURATION BEGINNING
THURSDAY AS THIS WEAK LOW BEGINS ITS TREK THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.
OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINS MINIMAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. THUS WILL JUST TREND TOWARD INCREASING
CLOUDS ON THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
TREND HIGHS CLOSE TO MAV/MEX VALUES GIVEN THE RETURN OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND CLOUDS. WILL TREND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WARMER GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SHAPING UP THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TWO
CHANCES FOR STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION.

FIRST FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL SNOW SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SANS
THE OP GFS REMAINS CLUSTERED ON A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH A MORE
SUPPRESSED TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DUE TO LITTLE
PHASING BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS. PRESENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE HOWEVER WILL EFFECTIVELY BRING MOISTURE
NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF SNOW BY SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER WAVE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A DRIER END TO THE WEEKEND. INTERESTING
TRENDS THEN DEVELOPING AS THE HOLIDAY WEEK PROGRESSES WITH SOME
STRONG INDICATIONS OF A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DEVELOPING OVER THE COUNTRY. PRESENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WILL PROMOTE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ENABLE PRECIP TO FALL AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE
REGION WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
HINTING AT AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE WAVE ON THE TRAILING FRONT AND
LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS A WINTER STORM.
REALLY EARLY IN THE PROCESS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS AS SOME GROWING POTENTIAL FOR PRE-
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 170000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 602 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

MIXTURE OF IFR/MFVR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS TO MVFR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AND
POSSIBLY VFR AT A FEW OF THE SITES BY LATE WED AFTERNOON.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A SHALLOW INVERSION WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN THE STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 1000-2000FT. MANY LOCATIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO REPORT -DZ FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH FLURRIES
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LOST AND THE AIRMASS
COOLS. COULD EVEN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER 06Z
AS FURTHER DRYING OCCURS ABOVE THE INVERSION. NOT MAKING A MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING DESPITE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH W/NW WINDS PERSISTING AT 10-15KTS FOR MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 162308
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
608 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEPART SLOWLY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE SOME COOLER CANADIAN AIR TO THE
AREA...RESULTING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS INDIANA AND
THE REST OF THE OHIO VALLEY. SATELLITE CONTINUED TO SHOW
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS FOUND ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLOUDS
STRETCHING BACK WEST TO MISSOURI...NEBRASKA AND IOWA. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN THE 40S...HOWEVER COLDER AIR IN THE 30S
WAS FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEADED THIS WAY.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUDS AND ANY FREEZING
PRECIPITATION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TRAPPED
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...SHOWING
SATURATION AND HIGH RH THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALOFT THE GFS 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD SINKING AND ASSOCIATED DRYING. THUS
IS THIS AN IDEAL SITUATION FOR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER ONGOING COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW 32F AFTER 06Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER LEVELS
BELOW FREEZING. THUS WE COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE
MINIMAL AS CHANCES MEASURABLE PRECIP IS LOW GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS AS
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER...AS WELL AS WEST WINDS AT 10-15 MPH
PROVIDING MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

ON WEDNESDAY THE SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLY THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CONUS. LOWER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
REMAIN CYCLONIC ON WEDNESDAY AND RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT TO
THE WEST. THIS KEEPS INDIANA ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND
CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING IS LOW. FURTHER SUPPORT IS SEEN THE THE
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS WHICH CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A THIN LAYER OF
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS WILL TREND SKIES TOWARD MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY. WILL ALSO TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE DEEP SOUTH. RIDGING IN THE
MIDDLE LEVEL ARRIVES IN CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE LOWER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COMES TO AN END. THUS WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN THE
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY AT THIS TIME WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALOFT A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL
STREAM THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON THURSDAY AND
EXIT ON FRIDAY...BUT NO MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA KEEPS DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IN PLACE.
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH ON THURSDAY. THE GFS ALSO SUGGESTS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THE 290K GFS ISENTROPIC
SURFACE REVEALS GOOD LIFT ACROSS OK AND TX...BUT THIS LIFT DOES
RESULT IN THE ARRIVAL OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID AND HIGHER LEVEL SATURATION BEGINNING
THURSDAY AS THIS WEAK LOW BEGINS ITS TREK THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.
OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINS MINIMAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. THUS WILL JUST TREND TOWARD INCREASING
CLOUDS ON THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
TREND HIGHS CLOSE TO MAV/MEX VALUES GIVEN THE RETURN OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND CLOUDS. WILL TREND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WARMER GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SHAPING UP THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TWO
CHANCES FOR STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION.

FIRST FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL SNOW SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SANS
THE OP GFS REMAINS CLUSTERED ON A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH A MORE
SUPPRESSED TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DUE TO LITTLE
PHASING BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS. PRESENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE HOWEVER WILL EFFECTIVELY BRING MOISTURE
NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF SNOW BY SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER WAVE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A DRIER END TO THE WEEKEND. INTERESTING
TRENDS THEN DEVELOPING AS THE HOLIDAY WEEK PROGRESSES WITH SOME
STRONG INDICATIONS OF A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DEVELOPING OVER THE COUNTRY. PRESENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WILL PROMOTE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ENABLE PRECIP TO FALL AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE
REGION WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
HINTING AT AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE WAVE ON THE TRAILING FRONT AND
LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS A WINTER STORM.
REALLY EARLY IN THE PROCESS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS AS SOME GROWING POTENTIAL FOR PRE-
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 170000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 602 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

MIXTURE OF IFR/MFVR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS TO MVFR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AND
POSSIBLY VFR AT A FEW OF THE SITES BY LATE WED AFTERNOON.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A SHALLOW INVERSION WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN THE STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 1000-2000FT. MANY LOCATIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO REPORT -DZ FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LOST AND THE AIRMASS COOLS. COULD
EVEN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER 06Z AS FURTHER
DRYING OCCURS ABOVE THE INVERSION. NOT MAKING A MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH W/NW
WINDS PERSISTING AT 10-15KTS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 162308
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
608 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEPART SLOWLY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE SOME COOLER CANADIAN AIR TO THE
AREA...RESULTING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS INDIANA AND
THE REST OF THE OHIO VALLEY. SATELLITE CONTINUED TO SHOW
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS FOUND ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLOUDS
STRETCHING BACK WEST TO MISSOURI...NEBRASKA AND IOWA. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN THE 40S...HOWEVER COLDER AIR IN THE 30S
WAS FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEADED THIS WAY.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUDS AND ANY FREEZING
PRECIPITATION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TRAPPED
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...SHOWING
SATURATION AND HIGH RH THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALOFT THE GFS 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD SINKING AND ASSOCIATED DRYING. THUS
IS THIS AN IDEAL SITUATION FOR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER ONGOING COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW 32F AFTER 06Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER LEVELS
BELOW FREEZING. THUS WE COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE
MINIMAL AS CHANCES MEASURABLE PRECIP IS LOW GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS AS
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER...AS WELL AS WEST WINDS AT 10-15 MPH
PROVIDING MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

ON WEDNESDAY THE SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLY THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CONUS. LOWER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
REMAIN CYCLONIC ON WEDNESDAY AND RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT TO
THE WEST. THIS KEEPS INDIANA ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND
CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING IS LOW. FURTHER SUPPORT IS SEEN THE THE
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS WHICH CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A THIN LAYER OF
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS WILL TREND SKIES TOWARD MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY. WILL ALSO TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE DEEP SOUTH. RIDGING IN THE
MIDDLE LEVEL ARRIVES IN CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE LOWER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COMES TO AN END. THUS WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN THE
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY AT THIS TIME WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALOFT A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL
STREAM THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON THURSDAY AND
EXIT ON FRIDAY...BUT NO MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA KEEPS DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IN PLACE.
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH ON THURSDAY. THE GFS ALSO SUGGESTS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THE 290K GFS ISENTROPIC
SURFACE REVEALS GOOD LIFT ACROSS OK AND TX...BUT THIS LIFT DOES
RESULT IN THE ARRIVAL OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID AND HIGHER LEVEL SATURATION BEGINNING
THURSDAY AS THIS WEAK LOW BEGINS ITS TREK THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.
OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINS MINIMAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. THUS WILL JUST TREND TOWARD INCREASING
CLOUDS ON THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
TREND HIGHS CLOSE TO MAV/MEX VALUES GIVEN THE RETURN OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND CLOUDS. WILL TREND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WARMER GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SHAPING UP THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TWO
CHANCES FOR STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION.

FIRST FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL SNOW SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SANS
THE OP GFS REMAINS CLUSTERED ON A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH A MORE
SUPPRESSED TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DUE TO LITTLE
PHASING BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS. PRESENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE HOWEVER WILL EFFECTIVELY BRING MOISTURE
NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF SNOW BY SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER WAVE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A DRIER END TO THE WEEKEND. INTERESTING
TRENDS THEN DEVELOPING AS THE HOLIDAY WEEK PROGRESSES WITH SOME
STRONG INDICATIONS OF A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DEVELOPING OVER THE COUNTRY. PRESENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WILL PROMOTE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ENABLE PRECIP TO FALL AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE
REGION WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
HINTING AT AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE WAVE ON THE TRAILING FRONT AND
LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS A WINTER STORM.
REALLY EARLY IN THE PROCESS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS AS SOME GROWING POTENTIAL FOR PRE-
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 170000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 602 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

MIXTURE OF IFR/MFVR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS TO MVFR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AND
POSSIBLY VFR AT A FEW OF THE SITES BY LATE WED AFTERNOON.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A SHALLOW INVERSION WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN THE STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 1000-2000FT. MANY LOCATIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO REPORT -DZ FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LOST AND THE AIRMASS COOLS. COULD
EVEN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER 06Z AS FURTHER
DRYING OCCURS ABOVE THE INVERSION. NOT MAKING A MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH W/NW
WINDS PERSISTING AT 10-15KTS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 162000
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
300 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEPART SLOWLY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE SOME COOLER CANADIAN AIR TO THE
AREA...RESULTING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS INDIANA AND
THE REST OF THE OHIO VALLEY. SATELLITE CONTINUED TO SHOW
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS FOUND ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLOUDS
STRETCHING BACK WEST TO MISSOURI...NEBRASKA AND IOWA. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN THE 40S...HOWEVER COLDER AIR IN THE 30S
WAS FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEADED THIS WAY.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUDS AND ANY FREEZING
PRECIPITATION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TRAPPED
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...SHOWING
SATURATION AND HIGH RH THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALOFT THE GFS 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD SINKING AND ASSOCIATED DRYING. THUS
IS THIS AN IDEAL SITUATION FOR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER ONGOING COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW 32F AFTER 06Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER LEVELS
BELOW FREEZING. THUS WE COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE
MINIMAL AS CHANCES MEASURABLE PRECIP IS LOW GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS AS
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER...AS WELL AS WEST WINDS AT 10-15 MPH
PROVIDING MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

ON WEDNESDAY THE SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLY THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CONUS. LOWER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
REMAIN CYCLONIC ON WEDNESDAY AND RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT TO
THE WEST. THIS KEEPS INDIANA ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND
CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING IS LOW. FURTHER SUPPORT IS SEEN THE THE
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS WHICH CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A THIN LAYER OF
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS WILL TREND SKIES TOWARD MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY. WILL ALSO TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE DEEP SOUTH. RIDGING IN THE
MIDDLE LEVEL ARRIVES IN CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE LOWER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COMES TO AN END. THUS WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN THE
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY AT THIS TIME WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALOFT A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL
STREAM THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON THURSDAY AND
EXIT ON FRIDAY...BUT NO MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA KEEPS DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IN PLACE.
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH ON THURSDAY. THE GFS ALSO SUGGESTS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THE 290K GFS ISENTROPIC
SURFACE REVEALS GOOD LIFT ACROSS OK AND TX...BUT THIS LIFT DOES
RESULT IN THE ARRIVAL OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID AND HIGHER LEVEL SATURATION BEGINNING
THURSDAY AS THIS WEAK LOW BEGINS ITS TREK THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.
OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINS MINIMAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. THUS WILL JUST TREND TOWARD INCREASING
CLOUDS ON THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
TREND HIGHS CLOSE TO MAV/MEX VALUES GIVEN THE RETURN OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND CLOUDS. WILL TREND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WARMER GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SHAPING UP THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TWO
CHANCES FOR STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION.

FIRST FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL SNOW SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SANS
THE OP GFS REMAINS CLUSTERED ON A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH A MORE
SUPPRESSED TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DUE TO LITTLE
PHASING BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS. PRESENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE HOWEVER WILL EFFECTIVELY BRING MOISTURE
NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF SNOW BY SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER WAVE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A DRIER END TO THE WEEKEND. INTERESTING
TRENDS THEN DEVELOPING AS THE HOLIDAY WEEK PROGRESSES WITH SOME
STRONG INDICATIONS OF A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DEVELOPING OVER THE COUNTRY. PRESENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WILL PROMOTE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ENABLE PRECIP TO FALL AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE
REGION WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
HINTING AT AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE WAVE ON THE TRAILING FRONT AND
LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS A WINTER STORM.
REALLY EARLY IN THE PROCESS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS AS SOME GROWING POTENTIAL FOR PRE-
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 162100Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN
CEILINGS TO MVFR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT SHOWERS
ACCOMPANYING IT. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN HOVERING BETWEEN 500 AND
1500FT FOR THE MOST PART AS THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER REMAINS
SATURATED. EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP TO LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WINDS WILL VEER TO
WESTERLY AND GUST TO 20-25KTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A SHALLOW INVERSION WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN THE STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 1000-2000FT. FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LOST AND THE AIRMASS
COOLS. COULD EVEN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER
06Z AS FURTHER DRYING OCCURS ABOVE THE INVERSION. NOT MAKING A
MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING
TO MONITOR. MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING DESPITE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH
W/NW WINDS PERSISTING AT 10-15KTS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 162000
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
300 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEPART SLOWLY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE SOME COOLER CANADIAN AIR TO THE
AREA...RESULTING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS INDIANA AND
THE REST OF THE OHIO VALLEY. SATELLITE CONTINUED TO SHOW
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS FOUND ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLOUDS
STRETCHING BACK WEST TO MISSOURI...NEBRASKA AND IOWA. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN THE 40S...HOWEVER COLDER AIR IN THE 30S
WAS FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEADED THIS WAY.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUDS AND ANY FREEZING
PRECIPITATION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TRAPPED
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...SHOWING
SATURATION AND HIGH RH THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALOFT THE GFS 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD SINKING AND ASSOCIATED DRYING. THUS
IS THIS AN IDEAL SITUATION FOR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER ONGOING COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW 32F AFTER 06Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER LEVELS
BELOW FREEZING. THUS WE COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE
MINIMAL AS CHANCES MEASURABLE PRECIP IS LOW GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS AS
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER...AS WELL AS WEST WINDS AT 10-15 MPH
PROVIDING MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

ON WEDNESDAY THE SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLY THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CONUS. LOWER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
REMAIN CYCLONIC ON WEDNESDAY AND RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT TO
THE WEST. THIS KEEPS INDIANA ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND
CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING IS LOW. FURTHER SUPPORT IS SEEN THE THE
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS WHICH CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A THIN LAYER OF
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS WILL TREND SKIES TOWARD MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY. WILL ALSO TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE DEEP SOUTH. RIDGING IN THE
MIDDLE LEVEL ARRIVES IN CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE LOWER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COMES TO AN END. THUS WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN THE
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY AT THIS TIME WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALOFT A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL
STREAM THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON THURSDAY AND
EXIT ON FRIDAY...BUT NO MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA KEEPS DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IN PLACE.
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH ON THURSDAY. THE GFS ALSO SUGGESTS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THE 290K GFS ISENTROPIC
SURFACE REVEALS GOOD LIFT ACROSS OK AND TX...BUT THIS LIFT DOES
RESULT IN THE ARRIVAL OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID AND HIGHER LEVEL SATURATION BEGINNING
THURSDAY AS THIS WEAK LOW BEGINS ITS TREK THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.
OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINS MINIMAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. THUS WILL JUST TREND TOWARD INCREASING
CLOUDS ON THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
TREND HIGHS CLOSE TO MAV/MEX VALUES GIVEN THE RETURN OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND CLOUDS. WILL TREND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WARMER GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SHAPING UP THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TWO
CHANCES FOR STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION.

FIRST FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL SNOW SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SANS
THE OP GFS REMAINS CLUSTERED ON A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH A MORE
SUPPRESSED TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DUE TO LITTLE
PHASING BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS. PRESENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE HOWEVER WILL EFFECTIVELY BRING MOISTURE
NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF SNOW BY SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER WAVE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A DRIER END TO THE WEEKEND. INTERESTING
TRENDS THEN DEVELOPING AS THE HOLIDAY WEEK PROGRESSES WITH SOME
STRONG INDICATIONS OF A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DEVELOPING OVER THE COUNTRY. PRESENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WILL PROMOTE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ENABLE PRECIP TO FALL AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE
REGION WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
HINTING AT AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE WAVE ON THE TRAILING FRONT AND
LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS A WINTER STORM.
REALLY EARLY IN THE PROCESS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS AS SOME GROWING POTENTIAL FOR PRE-
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 162100Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN
CEILINGS TO MVFR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT SHOWERS
ACCOMPANYING IT. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN HOVERING BETWEEN 500 AND
1500FT FOR THE MOST PART AS THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER REMAINS
SATURATED. EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP TO LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WINDS WILL VEER TO
WESTERLY AND GUST TO 20-25KTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A SHALLOW INVERSION WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN THE STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 1000-2000FT. FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LOST AND THE AIRMASS
COOLS. COULD EVEN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER
06Z AS FURTHER DRYING OCCURS ABOVE THE INVERSION. NOT MAKING A
MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING
TO MONITOR. MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING DESPITE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH
W/NW WINDS PERSISTING AT 10-15KTS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 161928
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
228 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEPART SLOWLY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE SOME COOLER CANADIAN AIR TO THE
AREA...RESULTING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS INDIANA AND
THE REST OF THE OHIO VALLEY. SATELLITE CONTINUED TO SHOW
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS FOUND ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLOUDS
STRETCHING BACK WEST TO MISSOURI...NEBRASKA AND IOWA. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN THE 40S...HOWEVER COLDER AIR IN THE 30S
WAS FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEADED THIS WAY.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUDS AND ANY FREEZING
PRECIPITATION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TRAPPED
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...SHOWING
SATURATION AND HIGH RH THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALOFT THE GFS 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD SINKING AND ASSOCIATED DRYING. THUS
IS THIS AN IDEAL SITUATION FOR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER ONGOING COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW 32F AFTER 06Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER LEVELS
BELOW FREEZING. THUS WE COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE
MINIMAL AS CHANCES MEASURABLE PRECIP IS LOW GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS AS
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER...AS WELL AS WEST WINDS AT 10-15 MPH
PROVIDING MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

ON WEDNESDAY THE SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLY THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CONUS. LOWER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
REMAIN CYCLONIC ON WEDNESDAY AND RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT TO
THE WEST. THIS KEEPS INDIANA ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND
CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING IS LOW. FURTHER SUPPORT IS SEEN THE THE
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS WHICH CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A THIN LAYER OF
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS WILL TREND SKIES TOWARD MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY. WILL ALSO TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE DEEP SOUTH. RIDGING IN THE
MIDDLE LEVEL ARRIVES IN CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE LOWER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COMES TO AN END. THUS WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN THE
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY AT THIS TIME WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALOFT A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL
STREAM THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON THURSDAY AND
EXIT ON FRIDAY...BUT NO MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA KEEPS DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IN PLACE.
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH ON THURSDAY. THE GFS ALSO SUGGESTS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THE 290K GFS ISENTROPIC
SURFACE REVEALS GOOD LIFT ACROSS OK AND TX...BUT THIS LIFT DOES
RESULT IN THE ARRIVAL OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID AND HIGHER LEVEL SATURATION BEGINNING
THURSDAY AS THIS WEAK LOW BEGINS ITS TREK THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.
OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINS MINIMAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. THUS WILL JUST TREND TOWARD INCREASING
CLOUDS ON THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
TREND HIGHS CLOSE TO MAV/MEX VALUES GIVEN THE RETURN OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND CLOUDS. WILL TREND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WARMER GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SHAPING UP THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TWO
CHANCES FOR STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION.

FIRST FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL SNOW SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SANS
THE OP GFS REMAINS CLUSTERED ON A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH A MORE
SUPPRESSED TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DUE TO LITTLE
PHASING BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS. PRESENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE HOWEVER WILL EFFECTIVELY BRING MOISTURE
NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF SNOW BY SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER WAVE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A DRIER END TO THE WEEKEND. INTERESTING
TRENDS THEN DEVELOPING AS THE HOLIDAY WEEK PROGRESSES WITH SOME
STRONG INDICATIONS OF A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DEVELOPING OVER THE COUNTRY. PRESENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WILL PROMOTE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ENABLE PRECIP TO FALL AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE
REGION WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
HINTING AT AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE WAVE ON THE TRAILING FRONT AND
LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS A WINTER STORM.
REALLY EARLY IN THE PROCESS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS AS SOME GROWING POTENTIAL FOR PRE-
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 161800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN
CEILINGS TO MVFR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT SHOWERS
ACCOMPANYING IT. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN HOVERING BETWEEN 500 AND
1500FT FOR THE MOST PART AS THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER REMAINS
SATURATED. EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP TO LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WINDS WILL VEER TO
WESTERLY AND GUST TO 20-25KTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A SHALLOW INVERSION WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN THE STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 1000-2000FT. FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LOST AND THE AIRMASS
COOLS. COULD EVEN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER
06Z AS FURTHER DRYING OCCURS ABOVE THE INVERSION. NOT MAKING A
MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING
TO MONITOR. MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING DESPITE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH
W/NW WINDS PERSISTING AT 10-15KTS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 161928
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
228 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEPART SLOWLY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE SOME COOLER CANADIAN AIR TO THE
AREA...RESULTING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS INDIANA AND
THE REST OF THE OHIO VALLEY. SATELLITE CONTINUED TO SHOW
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS FOUND ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLOUDS
STRETCHING BACK WEST TO MISSOURI...NEBRASKA AND IOWA. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN THE 40S...HOWEVER COLDER AIR IN THE 30S
WAS FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEADED THIS WAY.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUDS AND ANY FREEZING
PRECIPITATION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TRAPPED
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...SHOWING
SATURATION AND HIGH RH THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALOFT THE GFS 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD SINKING AND ASSOCIATED DRYING. THUS
IS THIS AN IDEAL SITUATION FOR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER ONGOING COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW 32F AFTER 06Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER LEVELS
BELOW FREEZING. THUS WE COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE
MINIMAL AS CHANCES MEASURABLE PRECIP IS LOW GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS AS
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER...AS WELL AS WEST WINDS AT 10-15 MPH
PROVIDING MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

ON WEDNESDAY THE SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLY THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CONUS. LOWER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
REMAIN CYCLONIC ON WEDNESDAY AND RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT TO
THE WEST. THIS KEEPS INDIANA ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND
CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING IS LOW. FURTHER SUPPORT IS SEEN THE THE
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS WHICH CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A THIN LAYER OF
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS WILL TREND SKIES TOWARD MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY. WILL ALSO TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE DEEP SOUTH. RIDGING IN THE
MIDDLE LEVEL ARRIVES IN CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE LOWER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COMES TO AN END. THUS WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN THE
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY AT THIS TIME WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALOFT A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL
STREAM THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON THURSDAY AND
EXIT ON FRIDAY...BUT NO MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA KEEPS DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IN PLACE.
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH ON THURSDAY. THE GFS ALSO SUGGESTS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THE 290K GFS ISENTROPIC
SURFACE REVEALS GOOD LIFT ACROSS OK AND TX...BUT THIS LIFT DOES
RESULT IN THE ARRIVAL OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID AND HIGHER LEVEL SATURATION BEGINNING
THURSDAY AS THIS WEAK LOW BEGINS ITS TREK THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.
OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINS MINIMAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. THUS WILL JUST TREND TOWARD INCREASING
CLOUDS ON THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
TREND HIGHS CLOSE TO MAV/MEX VALUES GIVEN THE RETURN OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND CLOUDS. WILL TREND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WARMER GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SHAPING UP THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TWO
CHANCES FOR STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION.

FIRST FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL SNOW SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SANS
THE OP GFS REMAINS CLUSTERED ON A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH A MORE
SUPPRESSED TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DUE TO LITTLE
PHASING BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS. PRESENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE HOWEVER WILL EFFECTIVELY BRING MOISTURE
NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF SNOW BY SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER WAVE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A DRIER END TO THE WEEKEND. INTERESTING
TRENDS THEN DEVELOPING AS THE HOLIDAY WEEK PROGRESSES WITH SOME
STRONG INDICATIONS OF A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DEVELOPING OVER THE COUNTRY. PRESENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WILL PROMOTE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ENABLE PRECIP TO FALL AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE
REGION WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
HINTING AT AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE WAVE ON THE TRAILING FRONT AND
LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS A WINTER STORM.
REALLY EARLY IN THE PROCESS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS AS SOME GROWING POTENTIAL FOR PRE-
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 161800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN
CEILINGS TO MVFR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT SHOWERS
ACCOMPANYING IT. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN HOVERING BETWEEN 500 AND
1500FT FOR THE MOST PART AS THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER REMAINS
SATURATED. EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP TO LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WINDS WILL VEER TO
WESTERLY AND GUST TO 20-25KTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A SHALLOW INVERSION WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN THE STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 1000-2000FT. FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LOST AND THE AIRMASS
COOLS. COULD EVEN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER
06Z AS FURTHER DRYING OCCURS ABOVE THE INVERSION. NOT MAKING A
MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING
TO MONITOR. MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING DESPITE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH
W/NW WINDS PERSISTING AT 10-15KTS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 161842
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEPART SLOWLY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE SOME COOLER CANADIAN AIR TO THE
AREA...RESULTING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS INDIANA AND
THE REST OF THE OHIO VALLEY. SATELLITE CONTINUED TO SHOW
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS FOUND ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLOUDS
STRETCHING BACK WEST TO MISSOURI...NEBRASKA AND IOWA. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN THE 40S...HOWEVER COLDER AIR IN THE 30S
WAS FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEADED THIS WAY.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUDS AND ANY FREEZING
PRECIPITATION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TRAPPED
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...SHOWING
SATURATION AND HIGH RH THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALOFT THE GFS 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD SINKING AND ASSOCIATED DRYING. THUS
IS THIS AN IDEAL SITUATION FOR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER ONGOING COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW 32F AFTER 06Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER LEVELS
BELOW FREEZING. THUS WE COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE
MINIMAL AS CHANCES MEASURABLE PRECIP IS LOW GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS AS
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER...AS WELL AS WEST WINDS AT 10-15 MPH
PROVIDING MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

ON WEDNESDAY THE SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLY THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CONUS. LOWER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
REMAIN CYCLONIC ON WEDNESDAY AND RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT TO
THE WEST. THIS KEEPS INDIANA ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND
CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING IS LOW. FURTHER SUPPORT IS SEEN THE THE
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS WHICH CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A THIN LAYER OF
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS WILL TREND SKIES TOWARD MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY. WILL ALSO TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE DEEP SOUTH. RIDGING IN THE
MIDDLE LEVEL ARRIVES IN CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE LOWER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COMES TO AN END. THUS WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN THE
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY AT THIS TIME WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALOFT A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL
STREAM THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON THURSDAY AND
EXIT ON FRIDAY...BUT NO MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA KEEPS DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IN PLACE.
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH ON THURSDAY. THE GFS ALSO SUGGESTS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THE 290K GFS ISENTROPIC
SURFACE REVEALS GOOD LIFT ACROSS OK AND TX...BUT THIS LIFT DOES
RESULT IN THE ARRIVAL OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID AND HIGHER LEVEL SATURATION BEGINNING
THURSDAY AS THIS WEAK LOW BEGINS ITS TREK THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.
OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINS MINIMAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. THUS WILL JUST TREND TOWARD INCREASING
CLOUDS ON THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
TREND HIGHS CLOSE TO MAV/MEX VALUES GIVEN THE RETURN OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND CLOUDS. WILL TREND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WARMER GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG WITH TIMING
AND TEMPERATURES.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOW ATTEMPTING TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR
SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT SLOW BRINGING QPF ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z GEM AND GFS BOTH HAVE QPF ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STILL...THIS MARKS A CHANGE AS PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS SUGGESTING THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FURTHER NORTH AND ENVELOP
OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER SOUTHERLY TRACK SUGGESTS AREAS
NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. FINALLY...SYSTEM TO DAMPEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST
AND BECOMES ABSORBED IN NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND ONTARIO. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET FRIDAY NIGHT...FAR SOUTH AS
WARM LAYER ALOFT MOVES INTO THAT AREA. WILL KEEP IT JUST SNOW FOR
NOW...HOWEVER AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT IT AFTER SUBSEQUENT MODEL
RUNS.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM BASED ON THE
CURRENT TRACK CONSENSUS. EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS...IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE MORE THAN AN INCH AT THIS POINT.

WITH THE SYSTEM TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH PER THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEANS...PREFER THE COOLER GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ALONG WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH MATCH NICELY WITH THE 00Z
REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 161800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN
CEILINGS TO MVFR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT SHOWERS
ACCOMPANYING IT. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN HOVERING BETWEEN 500 AND
1500FT FOR THE MOST PART AS THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER REMAINS
SATURATED. EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP TO LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WINDS WILL VEER TO
WESTERLY AND GUST TO 20-25KTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A SHALLOW INVERSION WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN THE STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 1000-2000FT. FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LOST AND THE AIRMASS
COOLS. COULD EVEN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER
06Z AS FURTHER DRYING OCCURS ABOVE THE INVERSION. NOT MAKING A
MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING
TO MONITOR. MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING DESPITE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH
W/NW WINDS PERSISTING AT 10-15KTS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 161842
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEPART SLOWLY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE SOME COOLER CANADIAN AIR TO THE
AREA...RESULTING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS INDIANA AND
THE REST OF THE OHIO VALLEY. SATELLITE CONTINUED TO SHOW
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS FOUND ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLOUDS
STRETCHING BACK WEST TO MISSOURI...NEBRASKA AND IOWA. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN THE 40S...HOWEVER COLDER AIR IN THE 30S
WAS FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEADED THIS WAY.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUDS AND ANY FREEZING
PRECIPITATION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TRAPPED
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...SHOWING
SATURATION AND HIGH RH THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALOFT THE GFS 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD SINKING AND ASSOCIATED DRYING. THUS
IS THIS AN IDEAL SITUATION FOR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER ONGOING COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW 32F AFTER 06Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER LEVELS
BELOW FREEZING. THUS WE COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE
MINIMAL AS CHANCES MEASURABLE PRECIP IS LOW GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS AS
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER...AS WELL AS WEST WINDS AT 10-15 MPH
PROVIDING MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

ON WEDNESDAY THE SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLY THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CONUS. LOWER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
REMAIN CYCLONIC ON WEDNESDAY AND RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT TO
THE WEST. THIS KEEPS INDIANA ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND
CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING IS LOW. FURTHER SUPPORT IS SEEN THE THE
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS WHICH CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A THIN LAYER OF
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS WILL TREND SKIES TOWARD MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY. WILL ALSO TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE DEEP SOUTH. RIDGING IN THE
MIDDLE LEVEL ARRIVES IN CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE LOWER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COMES TO AN END. THUS WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN THE
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY AT THIS TIME WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALOFT A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL
STREAM THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON THURSDAY AND
EXIT ON FRIDAY...BUT NO MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA KEEPS DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IN PLACE.
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH ON THURSDAY. THE GFS ALSO SUGGESTS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THE 290K GFS ISENTROPIC
SURFACE REVEALS GOOD LIFT ACROSS OK AND TX...BUT THIS LIFT DOES
RESULT IN THE ARRIVAL OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID AND HIGHER LEVEL SATURATION BEGINNING
THURSDAY AS THIS WEAK LOW BEGINS ITS TREK THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.
OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINS MINIMAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. THUS WILL JUST TREND TOWARD INCREASING
CLOUDS ON THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
TREND HIGHS CLOSE TO MAV/MEX VALUES GIVEN THE RETURN OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND CLOUDS. WILL TREND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WARMER GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG WITH TIMING
AND TEMPERATURES.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOW ATTEMPTING TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR
SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT SLOW BRINGING QPF ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z GEM AND GFS BOTH HAVE QPF ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STILL...THIS MARKS A CHANGE AS PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS SUGGESTING THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FURTHER NORTH AND ENVELOP
OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER SOUTHERLY TRACK SUGGESTS AREAS
NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. FINALLY...SYSTEM TO DAMPEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST
AND BECOMES ABSORBED IN NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND ONTARIO. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET FRIDAY NIGHT...FAR SOUTH AS
WARM LAYER ALOFT MOVES INTO THAT AREA. WILL KEEP IT JUST SNOW FOR
NOW...HOWEVER AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT IT AFTER SUBSEQUENT MODEL
RUNS.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM BASED ON THE
CURRENT TRACK CONSENSUS. EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS...IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE MORE THAN AN INCH AT THIS POINT.

WITH THE SYSTEM TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH PER THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEANS...PREFER THE COOLER GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ALONG WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH MATCH NICELY WITH THE 00Z
REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 161800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN
CEILINGS TO MVFR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT SHOWERS
ACCOMPANYING IT. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN HOVERING BETWEEN 500 AND
1500FT FOR THE MOST PART AS THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER REMAINS
SATURATED. EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP TO LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WINDS WILL VEER TO
WESTERLY AND GUST TO 20-25KTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A SHALLOW INVERSION WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN THE STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 1000-2000FT. FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LOST AND THE AIRMASS
COOLS. COULD EVEN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER
06Z AS FURTHER DRYING OCCURS ABOVE THE INVERSION. NOT MAKING A
MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING
TO MONITOR. MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING DESPITE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH
W/NW WINDS PERSISTING AT 10-15KTS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 161718
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1218 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED INTO THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 957 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER INDIANA AND THE
GREAT LAKES. RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW SCT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN INDIANA. SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS INDIANA.

GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR...WILL
TREND POPS DOWNWARD THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. POP TRENDS FOR THE REST OF THE THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST TO LOWEST IN THE SOUTH AS THE LOW OVER
MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WITH CLOUDS AND SCT RAIN IN THE AREA...STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPS WILL BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS ZONAL UPPER FLOW
UNDERCUTS A BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.

WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW THIS
EVENING OVER THE EASTERN ZONES TO COVER ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/S UPPER TROUGH...BUT THIS DOESN/T
LOOK LIKE A BIG DEAL.

OTHERWISE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS THIS EVENING WHICH LINGERS
INTO THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THINK THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BY THURSDAY. OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE DATA
SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
MONITOR THE TRENDS.

DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WILL TEMPER THE
DIURNAL RANGE OF THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BY ABOUT A
CATEGORY PER PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG WITH TIMING
AND TEMPERATURES.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOW ATTEMPTING TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR
SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT SLOW BRINGING QPF ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z GEM AND GFS BOTH HAVE QPF ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STILL...THIS MARKS A CHANGE AS PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS SUGGESTING THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FURTHER NORTH AND ENVELOP
OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER SOUTHERLY TRACK SUGGESTS AREAS
NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. FINALLY...SYSTEM TO DAMPEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST
AND BECOMES ABSORBED IN NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND ONTARIO. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET FRIDAY NIGHT...FAR SOUTH AS
WARM LAYER ALOFT MOVES INTO THAT AREA. WILL KEEP IT JUST SNOW FOR
NOW...HOWEVER AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT IT AFTER SUBSEQUENT MODEL
RUNS.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM BASED ON THE
CURRENT TRACK CONSENSUS. EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS...IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE MORE THAN AN INCH AT THIS POINT.

WITH THE SYSTEM TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH PER THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEANS...PREFER THE COOLER GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ALONG WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH MATCH NICELY WITH THE 00Z
REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 161800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN
CEILINGS TO MVFR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT SHOWERS
ACCOMPANYING IT. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN HOVERING BETWEEN 500 AND
1500FT FOR THE MOST PART AS THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER REMAINS
SATURATED. EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP TO LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WINDS WILL VEER TO
WESTERLY AND GUST TO 20-25KTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A SHALLOW INVERSION WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN THE STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 1000-2000FT. FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LOST AND THE AIRMASS
COOLS. COULD EVEN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER
06Z AS FURTHER DRYING OCCURS ABOVE THE INVERSION. NOT MAKING A
MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING
TO MONITOR. MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING DESPITE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH
W/NW WINDS PERSISTING AT 10-15KTS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 161513
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1013 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED INTO THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 957 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER INDIANA AND THE
GREAT LAKES. RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW SCT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN INDIANA. SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS INDIANA.

GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR...WILL
TREND POPS DOWNWARD THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. POP TRENDS FOR THE REST OF THE THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST TO LOWEST IN THE SOUTH AS THE LOW OVER
MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WITH CLOUDS AND SCT RAIN IN THE AREA...STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPS WILL BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS ZONAL UPPER FLOW
UNDERCUTS A BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.

WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW THIS
EVENING OVER THE EASTERN ZONES TO COVER ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/S UPPER TROUGH...BUT THIS DOESN/T
LOOK LIKE A BIG DEAL.

OTHERWISE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS THIS EVENING WHICH LINGERS
INTO THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THINK THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BY THURSDAY. OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE DATA
SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
MONITOR THE TRENDS.

DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WILL TEMPER THE
DIURNAL RANGE OF THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BY ABOUT A
CATEGORY PER PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG WITH TIMING
AND TEMPERATURES.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOW ATTEMPTING TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR
SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT SLOW BRINGING QPF ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z GEM AND GFS BOTH HAVE QPF ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STILL...THIS MARKS A CHANGE AS PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS SUGGESTING THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FURTHER NORTH AND ENVELOP
OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER SOUTHERLY TRACK SUGGESTS AREAS
NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. FINALLY...SYSTEM TO DAMPEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST
AND BECOMES ABSORBED IN NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND ONTARIO. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET FRIDAY NIGHT...FAR SOUTH AS
WARM LAYER ALOFT MOVES INTO THAT AREA. WILL KEEP IT JUST SNOW FOR
NOW...HOWEVER AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT IT AFTER SUBSEQUENT MODEL
RUNS.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM BASED ON THE
CURRENT TRACK CONSENSUS. EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS...IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE MORE THAN AN INCH AT THIS POINT.

WITH THE SYSTEM TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH PER THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEANS...PREFER THE COOLER GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ALONG WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH MATCH NICELY WITH THE 00Z
REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 919 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LOWERING CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAY SEE PERIODIC IFR STRATUS WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP BY LATE
MORNING AS WELL WITH VEERING FLOW TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

IFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR NEAR ISSUANCE TIME PER LATEST
UPSTREAM OB TRENDS. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
AROUND 20Z OR SO BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL EASE UP A BIT
AFTER 00Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 161513
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1013 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED INTO THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 957 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER INDIANA AND THE
GREAT LAKES. RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW SCT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN INDIANA. SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS INDIANA.

GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR...WILL
TREND POPS DOWNWARD THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. POP TRENDS FOR THE REST OF THE THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST TO LOWEST IN THE SOUTH AS THE LOW OVER
MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WITH CLOUDS AND SCT RAIN IN THE AREA...STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPS WILL BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS ZONAL UPPER FLOW
UNDERCUTS A BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.

WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW THIS
EVENING OVER THE EASTERN ZONES TO COVER ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/S UPPER TROUGH...BUT THIS DOESN/T
LOOK LIKE A BIG DEAL.

OTHERWISE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS THIS EVENING WHICH LINGERS
INTO THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THINK THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BY THURSDAY. OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE DATA
SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
MONITOR THE TRENDS.

DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WILL TEMPER THE
DIURNAL RANGE OF THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BY ABOUT A
CATEGORY PER PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG WITH TIMING
AND TEMPERATURES.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOW ATTEMPTING TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR
SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT SLOW BRINGING QPF ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z GEM AND GFS BOTH HAVE QPF ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STILL...THIS MARKS A CHANGE AS PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS SUGGESTING THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FURTHER NORTH AND ENVELOP
OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER SOUTHERLY TRACK SUGGESTS AREAS
NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. FINALLY...SYSTEM TO DAMPEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST
AND BECOMES ABSORBED IN NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND ONTARIO. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET FRIDAY NIGHT...FAR SOUTH AS
WARM LAYER ALOFT MOVES INTO THAT AREA. WILL KEEP IT JUST SNOW FOR
NOW...HOWEVER AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT IT AFTER SUBSEQUENT MODEL
RUNS.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM BASED ON THE
CURRENT TRACK CONSENSUS. EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS...IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE MORE THAN AN INCH AT THIS POINT.

WITH THE SYSTEM TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH PER THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEANS...PREFER THE COOLER GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ALONG WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH MATCH NICELY WITH THE 00Z
REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 919 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LOWERING CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAY SEE PERIODIC IFR STRATUS WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP BY LATE
MORNING AS WELL WITH VEERING FLOW TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

IFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR NEAR ISSUANCE TIME PER LATEST
UPSTREAM OB TRENDS. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
AROUND 20Z OR SO BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL EASE UP A BIT
AFTER 00Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 161419
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
919 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED INTO THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

AREA OF RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SURFACE LOW AND OCCLUSION. APPEARS MOST OF THIS WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA BY SUNRISE.

SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP SOME POPS GOING FOR
LIGHT RAIN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PULLS AWAY THIS AFTERNOON...THE PRECIPITATION THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS WELL.

GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...APPEARS HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE REACHED THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES NEARLY
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS ZONAL UPPER FLOW
UNDERCUTS A BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.

WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW THIS
EVENING OVER THE EASTERN ZONES TO COVER ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/S UPPER TROUGH...BUT THIS DOESN/T
LOOK LIKE A BIG DEAL.

OTHERWISE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS THIS EVENING WHICH LINGERS
INTO THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THINK THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BY THURSDAY. OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE DATA
SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
MONITOR THE TRENDS.

DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WILL TEMPER THE
DIURNAL RANGE OF THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BY ABOUT A
CATEGORY PER PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG WITH TIMING
AND TEMPERATURES.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOW ATTEMPTING TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR
SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT SLOW BRINGING QPF ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z GEM AND GFS BOTH HAVE QPF ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STILL...THIS MARKS A CHANGE AS PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS SUGGESTING THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FURTHER NORTH AND ENVELOP
OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER SOUTHERLY TRACK SUGGESTS AREAS
NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. FINALLY...SYSTEM TO DAMPEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST
AND BECOMES ABSORBED IN NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND ONTARIO. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET FRIDAY NIGHT...FAR SOUTH AS
WARM LAYER ALOFT MOVES INTO THAT AREA. WILL KEEP IT JUST SNOW FOR
NOW...HOWEVER AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT IT AFTER SUBSEQUENT MODEL
RUNS.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM BASED ON THE
CURRENT TRACK CONSENSUS. EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS...IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE MORE THAN AN INCH AT THIS POINT.

WITH THE SYSTEM TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH PER THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEANS...PREFER THE COOLER GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ALONG WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH MATCH NICELY WITH THE 00Z
REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 919 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LOWERING CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAY SEE PERIODIC IFR STRATUS WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP BY LATE
MORNING AS WELL WITH VEERING FLOW TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

IFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR NEAR ISSUANCE TIME PER LATEST
UPSTREAM OB TRENDS. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
AROUND 20Z OR SO BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL EASE UP A BIT
AFTER 00Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS























000
FXUS63 KIND 161419
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
919 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED INTO THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

AREA OF RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SURFACE LOW AND OCCLUSION. APPEARS MOST OF THIS WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA BY SUNRISE.

SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP SOME POPS GOING FOR
LIGHT RAIN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PULLS AWAY THIS AFTERNOON...THE PRECIPITATION THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS WELL.

GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...APPEARS HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE REACHED THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES NEARLY
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS ZONAL UPPER FLOW
UNDERCUTS A BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.

WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW THIS
EVENING OVER THE EASTERN ZONES TO COVER ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/S UPPER TROUGH...BUT THIS DOESN/T
LOOK LIKE A BIG DEAL.

OTHERWISE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS THIS EVENING WHICH LINGERS
INTO THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THINK THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BY THURSDAY. OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE DATA
SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
MONITOR THE TRENDS.

DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WILL TEMPER THE
DIURNAL RANGE OF THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BY ABOUT A
CATEGORY PER PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG WITH TIMING
AND TEMPERATURES.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOW ATTEMPTING TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR
SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT SLOW BRINGING QPF ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z GEM AND GFS BOTH HAVE QPF ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STILL...THIS MARKS A CHANGE AS PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS SUGGESTING THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FURTHER NORTH AND ENVELOP
OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER SOUTHERLY TRACK SUGGESTS AREAS
NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. FINALLY...SYSTEM TO DAMPEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST
AND BECOMES ABSORBED IN NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND ONTARIO. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET FRIDAY NIGHT...FAR SOUTH AS
WARM LAYER ALOFT MOVES INTO THAT AREA. WILL KEEP IT JUST SNOW FOR
NOW...HOWEVER AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT IT AFTER SUBSEQUENT MODEL
RUNS.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM BASED ON THE
CURRENT TRACK CONSENSUS. EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS...IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE MORE THAN AN INCH AT THIS POINT.

WITH THE SYSTEM TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH PER THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEANS...PREFER THE COOLER GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ALONG WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH MATCH NICELY WITH THE 00Z
REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 919 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LOWERING CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAY SEE PERIODIC IFR STRATUS WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP BY LATE
MORNING AS WELL WITH VEERING FLOW TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

IFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR NEAR ISSUANCE TIME PER LATEST
UPSTREAM OB TRENDS. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
AROUND 20Z OR SO BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL EASE UP A BIT
AFTER 00Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
























000
FXUS63 KIND 161044
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
545 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED INTO THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

AREA OF RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SURFACE LOW AND OCCLUSION. APPEARS MOST OF THIS WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA BY SUNRISE.

SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP SOME POPS GOING FOR
LIGHT RAIN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PULLS AWAY THIS AFTERNOON...THE PRECIPITATION THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS WELL.

GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...APPEARS HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE REACHED THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES NEARLY
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS ZONAL UPPER FLOW
UNDERCUTS A BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.

WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW THIS
EVENING OVER THE EASTERN ZONES TO COVER ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/S UPPER TROUGH...BUT THIS DOESN/T
LOOK LIKE A BIG DEAL.

OTHERWISE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS THIS EVENING WHICH LINGERS
INTO THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THINK THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BY THURSDAY. OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE DATA
SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
MONITOR THE TRENDS.

DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WILL TEMPER THE
DIURNAL RANGE OF THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BY ABOUT A
CATEGORY PER PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG WITH TIMING
AND TEMPERATURES.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOW ATTEMPTING TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR
SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT SLOW BRINGING QPF ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z GEM AND GFS BOTH HAVE QPF ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STILL...THIS MARKS A CHANGE AS PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS SUGGESTING THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FURTHER NORTH AND ENVELOP
OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER SOUTHERLY TRACK SUGGESTS AREAS
NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. FINALLY...SYSTEM TO DAMPEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST
AND BECOMES ABSORBED IN NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND ONTARIO. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET FRIDAY NIGHT...FAR SOUTH AS
WARM LAYER ALOFT MOVES INTO THAT AREA. WILL KEEP IT JUST SNOW FOR
NOW...HOWEVER AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT IT AFTER SUBSEQUENT MODEL
RUNS.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM BASED ON THE
CURRENT TRACK CONSENSUS. EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS...IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE MORE THAN AN INCH AT THIS POINT.

WITH THE SYSTEM TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH PER THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEANS...PREFER THE COOLER GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ALONG WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH MATCH NICELY WITH THE 00Z
REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

IFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR NEAR ISSUANCE TIME PER LATEST
UPSTREAM OB TRENDS. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
AROUND 20Z OR SO BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST AND INREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL EASE UP A BIT
AFTER 00Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS




















000
FXUS63 KIND 161044
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
545 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED INTO THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

AREA OF RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SURFACE LOW AND OCCLUSION. APPEARS MOST OF THIS WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA BY SUNRISE.

SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP SOME POPS GOING FOR
LIGHT RAIN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PULLS AWAY THIS AFTERNOON...THE PRECIPITATION THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS WELL.

GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...APPEARS HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE REACHED THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES NEARLY
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS ZONAL UPPER FLOW
UNDERCUTS A BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.

WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW THIS
EVENING OVER THE EASTERN ZONES TO COVER ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/S UPPER TROUGH...BUT THIS DOESN/T
LOOK LIKE A BIG DEAL.

OTHERWISE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS THIS EVENING WHICH LINGERS
INTO THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THINK THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BY THURSDAY. OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE DATA
SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
MONITOR THE TRENDS.

DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WILL TEMPER THE
DIURNAL RANGE OF THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BY ABOUT A
CATEGORY PER PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG WITH TIMING
AND TEMPERATURES.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOW ATTEMPTING TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR
SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT SLOW BRINGING QPF ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z GEM AND GFS BOTH HAVE QPF ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STILL...THIS MARKS A CHANGE AS PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS SUGGESTING THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FURTHER NORTH AND ENVELOP
OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER SOUTHERLY TRACK SUGGESTS AREAS
NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. FINALLY...SYSTEM TO DAMPEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST
AND BECOMES ABSORBED IN NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND ONTARIO. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET FRIDAY NIGHT...FAR SOUTH AS
WARM LAYER ALOFT MOVES INTO THAT AREA. WILL KEEP IT JUST SNOW FOR
NOW...HOWEVER AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT IT AFTER SUBSEQUENT MODEL
RUNS.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM BASED ON THE
CURRENT TRACK CONSENSUS. EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS...IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE MORE THAN AN INCH AT THIS POINT.

WITH THE SYSTEM TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH PER THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEANS...PREFER THE COOLER GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ALONG WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH MATCH NICELY WITH THE 00Z
REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

IFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR NEAR ISSUANCE TIME PER LATEST
UPSTREAM OB TRENDS. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
AROUND 20Z OR SO BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST AND INREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL EASE UP A BIT
AFTER 00Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





















000
FXUS63 KIND 161033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
533 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED INTO THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

AREA OF RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SURFACE LOW AND OCCLUSION. APPEARS MOST OF THIS WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA BY SUNRISE.

SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP SOME POPS GOING FOR
LIGHT RAIN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PULLS AWAY THIS AFTERNOON...THE PRECIPITATION THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS WELL.

GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...APPEARS HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE REACHED THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES NEARLY
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS ZONAL UPPER FLOW
UNDERCUTS A BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.

WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW THIS
EVENING OVER THE EASTERN ZONES TO COVER ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/S UPPER TROUGH...BUT THIS DOESN/T
LOOK LIKE A BIG DEAL.

OTHERWISE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS THIS EVENING WHICH LINGERS
INTO THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THINK THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BY THURSDAY. OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE DATA
SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
MONITOR THE TRENDS.

DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WILL TEMPER THE
DIURNAL RANGE OF THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BY ABOUT A
CATEGORY PER PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG WITH TIMING
AND TEMPERATURES.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOW ATTEMPTING TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR
SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT SLOW BRINGING QPF ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z GEM AND GFS BOTH HAVE QPF ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STILL...THIS MARKS A CHANGE AS PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS SUGGESTING THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FURTHER NORTH AND ENVELOP
OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER SOUTHERLY TRACK SUGGESTS AREAS
NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. FINALLY...SYSTEM TO DAMPEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST
AND BECOMES ABSORBED IN NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND ONTARIO. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET FRIDAY NIGHT...FAR SOUTH AS
WARM LAYER ALOFT MOVES INTO THAT AREA. WILL KEEP IT JUST SNOW FOR
NOW...HOWEVER AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT IT AFTER SUBSEQUENT MODEL
RUNS.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM BASED ON THE
CURRENT TRACK CONSENSUS. EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS...IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE MORE THAN AN INCH AT THIS POINT.

WITH THE SYSTEM TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH PER THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEANS...PREFER THE COOLER GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ALONG WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH MATCH NICELY WITH THE 00Z
REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

IFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR NEAR ISSUANCE TIME PER LATEST
UPSTREAM OB TRENDS. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND
THROUGH 20Z OR SO TODAY BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST AND INREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL EASE UP A BIT
AFTER 00Z AS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 161033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
533 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED INTO THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

AREA OF RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SURFACE LOW AND OCCLUSION. APPEARS MOST OF THIS WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA BY SUNRISE.

SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP SOME POPS GOING FOR
LIGHT RAIN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PULLS AWAY THIS AFTERNOON...THE PRECIPITATION THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS WELL.

GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...APPEARS HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE REACHED THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES NEARLY
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS ZONAL UPPER FLOW
UNDERCUTS A BLOCK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.

WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW THIS
EVENING OVER THE EASTERN ZONES TO COVER ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/S UPPER TROUGH...BUT THIS DOESN/T
LOOK LIKE A BIG DEAL.

OTHERWISE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS THIS EVENING WHICH LINGERS
INTO THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THINK THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BY THURSDAY. OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE DATA
SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
MONITOR THE TRENDS.

DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WILL TEMPER THE
DIURNAL RANGE OF THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BY ABOUT A
CATEGORY PER PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG WITH TIMING
AND TEMPERATURES.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOW ATTEMPTING TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR
SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT SLOW BRINGING QPF ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z GEM AND GFS BOTH HAVE QPF ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STILL...THIS MARKS A CHANGE AS PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS SUGGESTING THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FURTHER NORTH AND ENVELOP
OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER SOUTHERLY TRACK SUGGESTS AREAS
NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. FINALLY...SYSTEM TO DAMPEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST
AND BECOMES ABSORBED IN NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND ONTARIO. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET FRIDAY NIGHT...FAR SOUTH AS
WARM LAYER ALOFT MOVES INTO THAT AREA. WILL KEEP IT JUST SNOW FOR
NOW...HOWEVER AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT IT AFTER SUBSEQUENT MODEL
RUNS.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM BASED ON THE
CURRENT TRACK CONSENSUS. EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS...IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE MORE THAN AN INCH AT THIS POINT.

WITH THE SYSTEM TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH PER THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEANS...PREFER THE COOLER GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ALONG WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH MATCH NICELY WITH THE 00Z
REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

IFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR NEAR ISSUANCE TIME PER LATEST
UPSTREAM OB TRENDS. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND
THROUGH 20Z OR SO TODAY BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST AND INREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL EASE UP A BIT
AFTER 00Z AS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS


















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