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000
FXUS63 KIND 040749
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
349 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY AND EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY BY
TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
RAIN/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
INDIANA AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN A DRY
CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY ALONG WITH
A WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FURTHER OUT...THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
ON SATURDAY...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM WILL BE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH
AN UPPER LOW.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. THIS
CORRELATES WELL WITH COLD FRONT PLACEMENT CURRENTLY EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. EXPECT THIS
CONVECTION TO START IMPACTING THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AFTER WED 09Z...SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA BY WED 12Z. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN STILL APPEAR TO BE IN THE
WED 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME...SO WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WITH LIKELY
POPS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THAT PERIOD.

DYNAMICS WILL START TO WANE BY THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AS
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. SO...WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. MODELS WERE IN
AGREEMENT FOR TEMPERATURES...SO STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS /MAINLY OVER EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA/ TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY IN
SHORT TERM PERIOD...SO WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT.
TOMORROW MORNING...UPPER LOW WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTHEAST...SO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE NECESSARY.
AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION AND
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE 40S TO 50S...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY AND
THEN STALL ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  MODELS MOVE
THIS FRONT NORTH BACK INTO INDIANA BY TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL KEEP NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS DRY SUNDAY.  THE GFS AND GEMNH MODELS
KEEP ALL BUT THE FAR WEST AND SOUTH DRY THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE THE 00Z EURO
IS A QUICK OUTLIER IN SPREADING SHOWERS NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT.  I BELIEVE THE
EURO MIGHT BE TOO QUICK...BUT SINCE WE ALREADY HAVE POPS MOST AREAS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WILL KEEP THEM IN FOR NOW.  ALL MODELS INDICATE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY...MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
SUNDAY AND 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  LOWS WILL BE MID 40S TO MID 50S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 50S MONDAY NIGHT.  IN MOST CASES STAYED
CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

COLD FRONT AND TRAILING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA AFTER 09Z AND THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT
EMBEDDED THUNDER. HOWEVER...CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE ENOUGH 18Z-21Z TO PULL THEM.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN TO MVFR FOR MOST OF
TODAY AFTER AROUND 11Z. CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING IS NOT GREAT BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TREND IS GOOD. BRIEF IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BUT GFS LAMP AND SREF CEILING PROGS SUGGEST CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW TO MENTION.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH LAF AROUND 12Z...HUF AND IND AROUND 18Z
AND BMG AFTER 20Z. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT
AND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TONIGHT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TO NORTHWEST TO
NEAR 15 KNOTS. COULD SEE GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 040335
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1135 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN IT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND HANGING
AROUND INTO THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 937 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ORGANIZED LIFT FROM SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN ARRIVING TOWARDS 040900Z. NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DRY BY AROUND 7 PM. EARLY TONIGHT WILL
BE DRY...BUT AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
OVERNIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAY NOT SEE
ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE 8 AM WEDNESDAY...BUT NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD SEE RAIN BEGIN SOMETIME IN THE 4-7 AM TIMEFRAME.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE SIMILAR IN THE MODELS AND A BLEND WAS
USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DECENT UPPER FORCING IN ADDITION TO THE
FRONTOGENESIS CROSSING THE AREA AND THUS THOUGHT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WERE WARRANTED...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
NORTH WHERE THE BEST UPPER FORCING WILL BE. WHILE THE FRONT WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON...COLD ADVECTION ALOFT COULD
ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDER
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALSO OF NOTE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS BUILDING OVER
THE AREA AND USHERS IN DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE UPPER LOW BRINGING DOWN COOL AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEN LINGER IN
THE VICINITY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. UNCERTAINTIES
IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL END UP EACH DAY LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES FOR
RAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASH
OUT EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

COLD FRONT AND TRAILING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA AFTER 09Z AND THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT
EMBEDDED THUNDER. HOWEVER...CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE ENOUGH 18Z-21Z TO PULL THEM.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN TO MVFR FOR MOST OF
TODAY AFTER AROUND 11Z. CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING IS NOT GREAT BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TREND IS GOOD. BRIEF IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BUT GFS LAMP AND SREF CEILING PROGS SUGGEST CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW TO MENTION.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH LAF AROUND 12Z...HUF AND IND AROUND 18Z
AND BMG AFTER 20Z. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT
AND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TONIGHT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TO NORTHWEST TO
NEAR 15 KNOTS. COULD SEE GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/JAS
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 040225
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1024 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN IT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND HANGING
AROUND INTO THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 937 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ORGANIZED LIFT FROM SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN ARRIVING TOWARDS 040900Z. NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DRY BY AROUND 7 PM. EARLY TONIGHT WILL
BE DRY...BUT AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
OVERNIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAY NOT SEE
ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE 8 AM WEDNESDAY...BUT NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD SEE RAIN BEGIN SOMETIME IN THE 4-7 AM TIMEFRAME.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE SIMILAR IN THE MODELS AND A BLEND WAS
USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DECENT UPPER FORCING IN ADDITION TO THE
FRONTOGENESIS CROSSING THE AREA AND THUS THOUGHT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WERE WARRANTED...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
NORTH WHERE THE BEST UPPER FORCING WILL BE. WHILE THE FRONT WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON...COLD ADVECTION ALOFT COULD
ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDER
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALSO OF NOTE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS BUILDING OVER
THE AREA AND USHERS IN DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE UPPER LOW BRINGING DOWN COOL AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEN LINGER IN
THE VICINITY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. UNCERTAINTIES
IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL END UP EACH DAY LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES FOR
RAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASH
OUT EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1024 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

COLD FRONT AND TRAILING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA AFTER 08Z AND THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN TO MVFR FOR MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTER AROUND 11Z. BRIEF IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BUT GFS LAMP AND SREF CEILING PROGS SUGGEST CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW TO MENTION. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END OR BECOME SPARSE ENOUGH
AFTER 21Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...THAT WILL NOT INCLUDE THEM.
ALSO...WOULD NOT RULE OUT EMBEDDED THUNDER. HOWEVER...CHANCES TOO
LOW TO MENTION.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH LAF AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...HUF AND IND
AROUND 18Z AND BMG AFTER 20Z. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR AND
BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TONIGHT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
TO NORTHWEST TO 20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE GUSTS TO NEAR 30
KNOTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/JAS
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 040140
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
939 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN IT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND HANGING
AROUND INTO THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 937 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ORGANIZED LIFT FROM SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN ARRIVING TOWARDS 040900Z. NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DRY BY AROUND 7 PM. EARLY TONIGHT WILL
BE DRY...BUT AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
OVERNIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAY NOT SEE
ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE 8 AM WEDNESDAY...BUT NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD SEE RAIN BEGIN SOMETIME IN THE 4-7 AM TIMEFRAME.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE SIMILAR IN THE MODELS AND A BLEND WAS
USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DECENT UPPER FORCING IN ADDITION TO THE
FRONTOGENESIS CROSSING THE AREA AND THUS THOUGHT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WERE WARRANTED...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
NORTH WHERE THE BEST UPPER FORCING WILL BE. WHILE THE FRONT WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON...COLD ADVECTION ALOFT COULD
ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDER
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALSO OF NOTE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS BUILDING OVER
THE AREA AND USHERS IN DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE UPPER LOW BRINGING DOWN COOL AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEN LINGER IN
THE VICINITY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. UNCERTAINTIES
IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL END UP EACH DAY LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES FOR
RAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASH
OUT EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

COLD FRONT AND TRAILING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA AFTER 08Z AND THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN TO MVFR FOR MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTER AROUND 11Z. BRIEF IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BUT GFS LAMP AND SREF CEILING PROGS SUGGEST CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW TO MENTION. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END OR BECOME SPARSE ENOUGH
AFTER 21Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...THAT WILL NOT INCLUDE THEM.
ALSO...WOULD NOT RULE OUT EMBEDDED THUNDER. HOWEVER...CHANCES TOO
LOW TO MENTION.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH LAF AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...HUF AND IND
AROUND 18Z AND BMG AFTER 20Z. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR AND
BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TONIGHT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
TO NORTHWEST TO 20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE GUSTS TO NEAR 30
KNOTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/JAS
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 032253
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
653 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN IT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND HANGING
AROUND INTO THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DRY BY AROUND 7 PM. EARLY TONIGHT WILL
BE DRY...BUT AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
OVERNIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAY NOT SEE
ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE 8 AM WEDNESDAY...BUT NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD SEE RAIN BEGIN SOMETIME IN THE 4-7 AM TIMEFRAME.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE SIMILAR IN THE MODELS AND A BLEND WAS
USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DECENT UPPER FORCING IN ADDITION TO THE
FRONTOGENESIS CROSSING THE AREA AND THUS THOUGHT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WERE WARRANTED...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
NORTH WHERE THE BEST UPPER FORCING WILL BE. WHILE THE FRONT WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON...COLD ADVECTION ALOFT COULD
ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDER
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALSO OF NOTE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS BUILDING OVER
THE AREA AND USHERS IN DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE UPPER LOW BRINGING DOWN COOL AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEN LINGER IN
THE VICINITY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. UNCERTAINTIES
IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL END UP EACH DAY LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES FOR
RAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASH
OUT EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

COLD FRONT AND TRAILING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA AFTER 08Z AND THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN TO MVFR FOR MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTER AROUND 11Z. BRIEF IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BUT GFS LAMP AND SREF CEILING PROGS SUGGEST CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW TO MENTION. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END OR BECOME SPARSE ENOUGH
AFTER 21Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...THAT WILL NOT INCLUDE THEM.
ALSO...WOULD NOT RULE OUT EMBEDDED THUNDER. HOWEVER...CHANCES TOO
LOW TO MENTION.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH LAF AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...HUF AND IND
AROUND 18Z AND BMG AFTER 20Z. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR AND
BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TONIGHT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
TO NORTHWEST TO 20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE GUSTS TO NEAR 30
KNOTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 032024
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
424 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN IT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND HANGING
AROUND INTO THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DRY BY AROUND 7 PM. EARLY TONIGHT WILL
BE DRY...BUT AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
OVERNIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAY NOT SEE
ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE 8 AM WEDNESDAY...BUT NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD SEE RAIN BEGIN SOMETIME IN THE 4-7 AM TIMEFRAME.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE SIMILAR IN THE MODELS AND A BLEND WAS
USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DECENT UPPER FORCING IN ADDITION TO THE
FRONTOGENESIS CROSSING THE AREA AND THUS THOUGHT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WERE WARRANTED...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
NORTH WHERE THE BEST UPPER FORCING WILL BE. WHILE THE FRONT WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON...COLD ADVECTION ALOFT COULD
ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDER
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALSO OF NOTE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS BUILDING OVER
THE AREA AND USHERS IN DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE UPPER LOW BRINGING DOWN COOL AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEN LINGER IN
THE VICINITY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. UNCERTAINTIES
IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL END UP EACH DAY LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES FOR
RAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASH
OUT EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 032100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MINOR CHANGES TO VFR CONDITIONS AND WIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
RETURN TO MVFR OR LOWER AFTER 10Z WEDNESDAY.

STILL SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE KIND/KBMG SITES AT THE
MOMENT...BUT THESE SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY VALID TIME. THESE
SITES ALSO ARE SEEING VARYING CEILINGS FROM MVFR TO VFR. KEPT MVFR
FOR AN HOUR OR SO...THEN ALLOWED THEM TO GO VFR. AT THE OTHER
SITES...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

A SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT AND BRING RAIN AND MVFR
CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER BUT ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.
IFR MAY DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO INCLUDE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50/MK





000
FXUS63 KIND 031950
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN IT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND HANGING
AROUND INTO THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DRY BY AROUND 7 PM. EARLY TONIGHT WILL
BE DRY...BUT AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
OVERNIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAY NOT SEE
ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE 8 AM WEDNESDAY...BUT NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD SEE RAIN BEGIN SOMETIME IN THE 4-7 AM TIMEFRAME.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE SIMILAR IN THE MODELS AND A BLEND WAS
USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DECENT UPPER FORCING IN ADDITION TO THE
FRONTOGENESIS CROSSING THE AREA AND THUS THOUGHT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WERE WARRANTED...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
NORTH WHERE THE BEST UPPER FORCING WILL BE. WHILE THE FRONT WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON...COLD ADVECTION ALOFT COULD
ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDER
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALSO OF NOTE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS BUILDING OVER
THE AREA AND USHERS IN DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE UPPER LOW BRINGING DOWN COOL AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEN LINGER IN
THE VICINITY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. UNCERTAINTIES
IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL END UP EACH DAY LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES FOR
RAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASH
OUT EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
RETURN TO MVFR OR LOWER AFTER 10Z WEDNESDAY.

STILL SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE KIND/KBMG SITES AT THE
MOMENT...BUT THESE SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY VALID TIME. THESE
SITES ALSO ARE SEEING VARYING CEILINGS FROM MVFR TO VFR. KEPT MVFR
FOR AN HOUR OR SO...THEN ALLOWED THEM TO GO VFR. AT THE OTHER
SITES...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

A SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT AND BRING RAIN AND MVFR
CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER BUT ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.
IFR MAY DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO INCLUDE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50





000
FXUS63 KIND 031950
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN IT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND HANGING
AROUND INTO THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DRY BY AROUND 7 PM. EARLY TONIGHT WILL
BE DRY...BUT AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
OVERNIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAY NOT SEE
ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE 8 AM WEDNESDAY...BUT NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD SEE RAIN BEGIN SOMETIME IN THE 4-7 AM TIMEFRAME.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE SIMILAR IN THE MODELS AND A BLEND WAS
USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DECENT UPPER FORCING IN ADDITION TO THE
FRONTOGENESIS CROSSING THE AREA AND THUS THOUGHT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WERE WARRANTED...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
NORTH WHERE THE BEST UPPER FORCING WILL BE. WHILE THE FRONT WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON...COLD ADVECTION ALOFT COULD
ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDER
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALSO OF NOTE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS BUILDING OVER
THE AREA AND USHERS IN DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE UPPER LOW BRINGING DOWN COOL AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEN LINGER IN
THE VICINITY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. UNCERTAINTIES
IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL END UP EACH DAY LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES FOR
RAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASH
OUT EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
RETURN TO MVFR OR LOWER AFTER 10Z WEDNESDAY.

STILL SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE KIND/KBMG SITES AT THE
MOMENT...BUT THESE SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY VALID TIME. THESE
SITES ALSO ARE SEEING VARYING CEILINGS FROM MVFR TO VFR. KEPT MVFR
FOR AN HOUR OR SO...THEN ALLOWED THEM TO GO VFR. AT THE OTHER
SITES...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

A SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT AND BRING RAIN AND MVFR
CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER BUT ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.
IFR MAY DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO INCLUDE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50





000
FXUS63 KIND 031839
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
239 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S....PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL INDIANA
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE
70S...AND LOW 80S BY SATURDAY. FURTHER OUT...A FRONT WILL MOVE
BACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...TRIGGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 619 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPDATE...
LIGHT DRIZZLE AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT.

A VERY BROAD WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES TODAY AND GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THIS MORNING...BUT THEY
WILL BE LIGHT AT MOST. AS THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER TUE 18Z...COMPLETELY ENDING BY THIS EVENING.

TEMPS...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER
SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER AND NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS WAS CAPTURED BEST
WITH A MODEL BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...BUT
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA
AFTER WED 06Z. SO POPS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AS CONVECTION FORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LIKELY POPS BETWEEN WED 12-18Z. AFTER THAT...CHANCES WILL
DROP OFF QUICKLY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST. NONETHELESS...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THU 00Z AS TRAILING UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO ANY LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S...GENERALLY STUCK
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEN LINGER IN
THE VICINITY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. UNCERTAINTIES
IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL END UP EACH DAY LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES FOR
RAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASH
OUT EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
RETURN TO MVFR OR LOWER AFTER 10Z WEDNESDAY.

STILL SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE KIND/KBMG SITES AT THE
MOMENT...BUT THESE SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY VALID TIME. THESE
SITES ALSO ARE SEEING VARYING CEILINGS FROM MVFR TO VFR. KEPT MVFR
FOR AN HOUR OR SO...THEN ALLOWED THEM TO GO VFR. AT THE OTHER
SITES...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

A SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT AND BRING RAIN AND MVFR
CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER BUT ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.
IFR MAY DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO INCLUDE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50





000
FXUS63 KIND 031839
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
239 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S....PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL INDIANA
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE
70S...AND LOW 80S BY SATURDAY. FURTHER OUT...A FRONT WILL MOVE
BACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...TRIGGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 619 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPDATE...
LIGHT DRIZZLE AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT.

A VERY BROAD WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES TODAY AND GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THIS MORNING...BUT THEY
WILL BE LIGHT AT MOST. AS THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER TUE 18Z...COMPLETELY ENDING BY THIS EVENING.

TEMPS...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER
SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER AND NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS WAS CAPTURED BEST
WITH A MODEL BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...BUT
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA
AFTER WED 06Z. SO POPS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AS CONVECTION FORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LIKELY POPS BETWEEN WED 12-18Z. AFTER THAT...CHANCES WILL
DROP OFF QUICKLY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST. NONETHELESS...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THU 00Z AS TRAILING UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO ANY LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S...GENERALLY STUCK
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEN LINGER IN
THE VICINITY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. UNCERTAINTIES
IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL END UP EACH DAY LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES FOR
RAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASH
OUT EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
RETURN TO MVFR OR LOWER AFTER 10Z WEDNESDAY.

STILL SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE KIND/KBMG SITES AT THE
MOMENT...BUT THESE SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY VALID TIME. THESE
SITES ALSO ARE SEEING VARYING CEILINGS FROM MVFR TO VFR. KEPT MVFR
FOR AN HOUR OR SO...THEN ALLOWED THEM TO GO VFR. AT THE OTHER
SITES...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

A SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT AND BRING RAIN AND MVFR
CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER BUT ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.
IFR MAY DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO INCLUDE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50





000
FXUS63 KIND 031635
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1235 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S....PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL INDIANA
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE
70S...AND LOW 80S BY SATURDAY. FURTHER OUT...A FRONT WILL MOVE
BACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...TRIGGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 619 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPDATE...
LIGHT DRIZZLE AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT.

A VERY BROAD WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES TODAY AND GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THIS MORNING...BUT THEY
WILL BE LIGHT AT MOST. AS THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER TUE 18Z...COMPLETELY ENDING BY THIS EVENING.

TEMPS...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER
SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER AND NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS WAS CAPTURED BEST
WITH A MODEL BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...BUT
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA
AFTER WED 06Z. SO POPS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AS CONVECTION FORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LIKELY POPS BETWEEN WED 12-18Z. AFTER THAT...CHANCES WILL
DROP OFF QUICKLY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST. NONETHELESS...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THU 00Z AS TRAILING UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO ANY LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S...GENERALLY STUCK
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BEGINS TO MOVE ON TO THE EAST FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY TO BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  WILL
MENTION CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY ON...AS MODELS
DIG ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY AND THEN STALL IT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
INDIANA SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING IT BACK NORTH AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND MONDAY.
BUT THEY SEEMED A BIT TOO WARM OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS SUNDAY
AS THE EURO...GFS AND GEMNH HAVE TRENDED COOLER.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S FRIDAY...UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 SATURDAY...70 TO 75 SUNDAY AND 70S
MONDAY. WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALL 3 NIGHTS.

&&


.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
RETURN TO MVFR OR LOWER AFTER 10Z WEDNESDAY.

STILL SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE KIND/KBMG SITES AT THE
MOMENT...BUT THESE SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY VALID TIME. THESE
SITES ALSO ARE SEEING VARYING CEILINGS FROM MVFR TO VFR. KEPT MVFR
FOR AN HOUR OR SO...THEN ALLOWED THEM TO GO VFR. AT THE OTHER
SITES...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

A SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT AND BRING RAIN AND MVFR
CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER BUT ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.
IFR MAY DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO INCLUDE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...50





000
FXUS63 KIND 031635
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1235 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S....PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL INDIANA
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE
70S...AND LOW 80S BY SATURDAY. FURTHER OUT...A FRONT WILL MOVE
BACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...TRIGGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 619 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPDATE...
LIGHT DRIZZLE AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT.

A VERY BROAD WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES TODAY AND GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THIS MORNING...BUT THEY
WILL BE LIGHT AT MOST. AS THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER TUE 18Z...COMPLETELY ENDING BY THIS EVENING.

TEMPS...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER
SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER AND NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS WAS CAPTURED BEST
WITH A MODEL BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...BUT
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA
AFTER WED 06Z. SO POPS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AS CONVECTION FORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LIKELY POPS BETWEEN WED 12-18Z. AFTER THAT...CHANCES WILL
DROP OFF QUICKLY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST. NONETHELESS...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THU 00Z AS TRAILING UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO ANY LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S...GENERALLY STUCK
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BEGINS TO MOVE ON TO THE EAST FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY TO BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  WILL
MENTION CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY ON...AS MODELS
DIG ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY AND THEN STALL IT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
INDIANA SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING IT BACK NORTH AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND MONDAY.
BUT THEY SEEMED A BIT TOO WARM OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS SUNDAY
AS THE EURO...GFS AND GEMNH HAVE TRENDED COOLER.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S FRIDAY...UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 SATURDAY...70 TO 75 SUNDAY AND 70S
MONDAY. WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALL 3 NIGHTS.

&&


.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
RETURN TO MVFR OR LOWER AFTER 10Z WEDNESDAY.

STILL SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE KIND/KBMG SITES AT THE
MOMENT...BUT THESE SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY VALID TIME. THESE
SITES ALSO ARE SEEING VARYING CEILINGS FROM MVFR TO VFR. KEPT MVFR
FOR AN HOUR OR SO...THEN ALLOWED THEM TO GO VFR. AT THE OTHER
SITES...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

A SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT AND BRING RAIN AND MVFR
CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER BUT ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.
IFR MAY DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO INCLUDE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...50





000
FXUS63 KIND 031417
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1017 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S....PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL INDIANA
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE
70S...AND LOW 80S BY SATURDAY. FURTHER OUT...A FRONT WILL MOVE
BACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...TRIGGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 619 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPDATE...
LIGHT DRIZZLE AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT.

A VERY BROAD WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES TODAY AND GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THIS MORNING...BUT THEY
WILL BE LIGHT AT MOST. AS THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER TUE 18Z...COMPLETELY ENDING BY THIS EVENING.

TEMPS...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER
SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER AND NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS WAS CAPTURED BEST
WITH A MODEL BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...BUT
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA
AFTER WED 06Z. SO POPS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AS CONVECTION FORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LIKELY POPS BETWEEN WED 12-18Z. AFTER THAT...CHANCES WILL
DROP OFF QUICKLY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST. NONETHELESS...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THU 00Z AS TRAILING UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO ANY LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S...GENERALLY STUCK
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BEGINS TO MOVE ON TO THE EAST FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY TO BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  WILL
MENTION CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY ON...AS MODELS
DIG ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY AND THEN STALL IT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
INDIANA SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING IT BACK NORTH AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND MONDAY.
BUT THEY SEEMED A BIT TOO WARM OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS SUNDAY
AS THE EURO...GFS AND GEMNH HAVE TRENDED COOLER.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S FRIDAY...UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 SATURDAY...70 TO 75 SUNDAY AND 70S
MONDAY. WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALL 3 NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

LOOKING AT RADAR AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...KIND LIKELY TO SEE IFR
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. THUS ADDED TO THE TAF. CEILINGS SHOULD
IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

TAFS STARTING OUT IFR OR MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR
THIS AFTERNOON AND BACK TO MVFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS INDIANA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST LATER
TODAY ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH WILL DIG INTO OUR
REGION BY WEDNESDAY.  WEATHER DEPICTION SHOWS MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS
AT KIND...KBMG AND KHUF AND MVFR AT KLAF.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT KLAF COULD BE
VFR BY NOON.

AFTER THAT IT SHOULD BE VFR...UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WHEN SHOWERS SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
COULD SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TOWARDS DAYBREAK...BUT CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 8 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
AND INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/50





000
FXUS63 KIND 031101
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
700 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S....PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL INDIANA
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE
70S...AND LOW 80S BY SATURDAY. FURTHER OUT...A FRONT WILL MOVE
BACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...TRIGGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 619 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPDATE...
LIGHT DRIZZLE AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT.

A VERY BROAD WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES TODAY AND GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THIS MORNING...BUT THEY
WILL BE LIGHT AT MOST. AS THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER TUE 18Z...COMPLETELY ENDING BY THIS EVENING.

TEMPS...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER
SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER AND NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS WAS CAPTURED BEST
WITH A MODEL BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...BUT
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA
AFTER WED 06Z. SO POPS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AS CONVECTION FORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LIKELY POPS BETWEEN WED 12-18Z. AFTER THAT...CHANCES WILL
DROP OFF QUICKLY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST. NONETHELESS...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THU 00Z AS TRAILING UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO ANY LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S...GENERALLY STUCK
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BEGINS TO MOVE ON TO THE EAST FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY TO BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  WILL
MENTION CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY ON...AS MODELS
DIG ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY AND THEN STALL IT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
INDIANA SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING IT BACK NORTH AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND MONDAY.
BUT THEY SEEMED A BIT TOO WARM OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS SUNDAY
AS THE EURO...GFS AND GEMNH HAVE TRENDED COOLER.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S FRIDAY...UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 SATURDAY...70 TO 75 SUNDAY AND 70S
MONDAY. WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALL 3 NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

TAFS STARTING OUT IFR OR MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR
THIS AFTERNOON AND BACK TO MVFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS INDIANA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST LATER
TODAY ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH WILL DIG INTO OUR
REGION BY WEDNESDAY.  WEATHER DEPICTION SHOWS MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS
AT KIND...KBMG AND KHUF AND MVFR AT KLAF.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT KLAF COULD BE
VFR BY NOON.

AFTER THAT IT SHOULD BE VFR...UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WHEN SHOWERS SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
COULD SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TOWARDS DAYBREAK...BUT CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 8 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
AND INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH





000
FXUS63 KIND 031101
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
700 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S....PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL INDIANA
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE
70S...AND LOW 80S BY SATURDAY. FURTHER OUT...A FRONT WILL MOVE
BACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...TRIGGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 619 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPDATE...
LIGHT DRIZZLE AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT.

A VERY BROAD WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES TODAY AND GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THIS MORNING...BUT THEY
WILL BE LIGHT AT MOST. AS THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER TUE 18Z...COMPLETELY ENDING BY THIS EVENING.

TEMPS...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER
SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER AND NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS WAS CAPTURED BEST
WITH A MODEL BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...BUT
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA
AFTER WED 06Z. SO POPS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AS CONVECTION FORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LIKELY POPS BETWEEN WED 12-18Z. AFTER THAT...CHANCES WILL
DROP OFF QUICKLY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST. NONETHELESS...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THU 00Z AS TRAILING UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO ANY LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S...GENERALLY STUCK
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BEGINS TO MOVE ON TO THE EAST FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY TO BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  WILL
MENTION CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY ON...AS MODELS
DIG ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY AND THEN STALL IT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
INDIANA SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING IT BACK NORTH AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND MONDAY.
BUT THEY SEEMED A BIT TOO WARM OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS SUNDAY
AS THE EURO...GFS AND GEMNH HAVE TRENDED COOLER.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S FRIDAY...UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 SATURDAY...70 TO 75 SUNDAY AND 70S
MONDAY. WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALL 3 NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

TAFS STARTING OUT IFR OR MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR
THIS AFTERNOON AND BACK TO MVFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS INDIANA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST LATER
TODAY ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH WILL DIG INTO OUR
REGION BY WEDNESDAY.  WEATHER DEPICTION SHOWS MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS
AT KIND...KBMG AND KHUF AND MVFR AT KLAF.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT KLAF COULD BE
VFR BY NOON.

AFTER THAT IT SHOULD BE VFR...UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WHEN SHOWERS SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
COULD SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TOWARDS DAYBREAK...BUT CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 8 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
AND INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH





000
FXUS63 KIND 031024
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
624 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S....PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL INDIANA
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE
70S...AND LOW 80S BY SATURDAY. FURTHER OUT...A FRONT WILL MOVE
BACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...TRIGGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 619 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPDATE...
LIGHT DRIZZLE AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT.

A VERY BROAD WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES TODAY AND GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THIS MORNING...BUT THEY
WILL BE LIGHT AT MOST. AS THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER TUE 18Z...COMPLETELY ENDING BY THIS EVENING.

TEMPS...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER
SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER AND NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS WAS CAPTURED BEST
WITH A MODEL BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...BUT
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA
AFTER WED 06Z. SO POPS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AS CONVECTION FORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LIKELY POPS BETWEEN WED 12-18Z. AFTER THAT...CHANCES WILL
DROP OFF QUICKLY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST. NONETHELESS...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THU 00Z AS TRAILING UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO ANY LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S...GENERALLY STUCK
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BEGINS TO MOVE ON TO THE EAST FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY TO BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  WILL
MENTION CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY ON...AS MODELS
DIG ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY AND THEN STALL IT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
INDIANA SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING IT BACK NORTH AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND MONDAY.
BUT THEY SEEMED A BIT TOO WARM OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS SUNDAY
AS THE EURO...GFS AND GEMNH HAVE TRENDED COOLER.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S FRIDAY...UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 SATURDAY...70 TO 75 SUNDAY AND 70S
MONDAY. WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALL 3 NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD REMAINS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AS A
LARGE...BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO KEEP
PLENTIFUL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
AS THE OVERALL PATTERN FAILS TO CHANGE. WITH COOLING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED TO FALL TO
LESS THAN 3F...IFR FOG AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING SHORT
WAVE WILL ALLOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AND
PERHAPS EVEN VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AMID THE DIRTY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
BRING MORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JP/JH





000
FXUS63 KIND 031024
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
624 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S....PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL INDIANA
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE
70S...AND LOW 80S BY SATURDAY. FURTHER OUT...A FRONT WILL MOVE
BACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...TRIGGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 619 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPDATE...
LIGHT DRIZZLE AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT.

A VERY BROAD WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES TODAY AND GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THIS MORNING...BUT THEY
WILL BE LIGHT AT MOST. AS THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER TUE 18Z...COMPLETELY ENDING BY THIS EVENING.

TEMPS...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER
SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER AND NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS WAS CAPTURED BEST
WITH A MODEL BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...BUT
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA
AFTER WED 06Z. SO POPS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AS CONVECTION FORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LIKELY POPS BETWEEN WED 12-18Z. AFTER THAT...CHANCES WILL
DROP OFF QUICKLY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST. NONETHELESS...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THU 00Z AS TRAILING UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO ANY LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S...GENERALLY STUCK
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BEGINS TO MOVE ON TO THE EAST FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY TO BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  WILL
MENTION CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY ON...AS MODELS
DIG ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY AND THEN STALL IT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
INDIANA SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING IT BACK NORTH AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND MONDAY.
BUT THEY SEEMED A BIT TOO WARM OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS SUNDAY
AS THE EURO...GFS AND GEMNH HAVE TRENDED COOLER.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S FRIDAY...UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 SATURDAY...70 TO 75 SUNDAY AND 70S
MONDAY. WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALL 3 NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD REMAINS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AS A
LARGE...BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO KEEP
PLENTIFUL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
AS THE OVERALL PATTERN FAILS TO CHANGE. WITH COOLING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED TO FALL TO
LESS THAN 3F...IFR FOG AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING SHORT
WAVE WILL ALLOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AND
PERHAPS EVEN VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AMID THE DIRTY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
BRING MORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JP/JH





000
FXUS63 KIND 030905
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
505 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S....PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL INDIANA
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE
70S...AND LOW 80S BY SATURDAY. FURTHER OUT...A FRONT WILL MOVE
BACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...TRIGGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE RAIN
CHANCES AS DUE TO WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT.

A VERY BROAD WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES TODAY AND GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THIS MORNING...BUT THEY
WILL BE LIGHT AT MOST. AS THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER TUE 18Z...COMPLETELY ENDING BY THIS EVENING.

TEMPS...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER
SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER AND NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS WAS CAPTURED BEST
WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RAIN CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...BUT
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA
AFTER WED 06Z. SO POPS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. LIFT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS BETWEEN WED 12-18Z. AFTER
THAT...CHANCES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST. NONETHELESS...WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THU 00Z AS TRAILING UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH
CENTRAL INDIANA...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO
ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S...GENERALLY STUCK
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BEGINS TO MOVE ON TO THE EAST FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY TO BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  WILL
MENTION CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY ON...AS MODELS
DIG ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY AND THEN STALL IT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
INDIANA SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING IT BACK NORTH AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND MONDAY.
BUT THEY SEEMED A BIT TOO WARM OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS SUNDAY
AS THE EURO...GFS AND GEMNH HAVE TRENDED COOLER.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S FRIDAY...UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 SATURDAY...70 TO 75 SUNDAY AND 70S
MONDAY. WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALL 3 NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD REMAINS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AS A
LARGE...BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO KEEP
PLENTIFUL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
AS THE OVERALL PATTERN FAILS TO CHANGE. WITH COOLING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED TO FALL TO
LESS THAN 3F...IFR FOG AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING SHORT
WAVE WILL ALLOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AND
PERHAPS EVEN VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AMID THE DIRTY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
BRING MORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JP/JH





000
FXUS63 KIND 030758
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
358 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S....PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL INDIANA
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE
70S...AND LOW 80S BY SATURDAY. FURTHER OUT...A FRONT WILL MOVE
BACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...TRIGGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE RAIN
CHANCES AS DUE TO WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT.

A VERY BROAD WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES TODAY AND GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THIS MORNING...BUT THEY
WILL BE LIGHT AT MOST. AS THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER TUE 18Z...COMPLETELY ENDING BY THIS EVENING.

TEMPS...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER
SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER AND NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS WAS CAPTURED BEST
WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RAIN CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...BUT
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA
AFTER WED 06Z. SO POPS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. LIFT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS BETWEEN WED 12-18Z. AFTER
THAT...CHANCES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST. NONETHELESS...WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THU 00Z AS TRAILING UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH
CENTRAL INDIANA...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO
ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S...GENERALLY STUCK
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BEGINS TO MOVE ON TO THE EAST FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY TO BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  WILL
MENTION CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY ON...AS MODELS
DIG ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY AND THEN STALL IT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
INDIANA SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING IT BACK NORTH AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND MONDAY.
BUT THEY SEEMED A BIT TOO WARM OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS SUNDAY
AS THE EURO...GFS AND GEMNH HAVE TRENDED COOLER.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S FRIDAY...UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 SATURDAY...70 TO 75 SUNDAY AND 70S
MONDAY. WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALL 3 NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 112 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD REMAINS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AS A
LARGE...BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO KEEP
PLENTIFUL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
AS THE OVERALL PATTERN FAILS TO CHANGE. WITH COOLING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED TO FALL TO
LESS THAN 3F...IFR FOG AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING SHORT
WAVE WILL ALLOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AND
PERHAPS EVEN VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AMID THE DIRTY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
BRING MORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JP/JH





000
FXUS63 KIND 030512
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
112 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE WEEK AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 647 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND
ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE PER RADAR TRENDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICTING TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING LIFT OVERNIGHT
AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

COOL SPRING AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A
THICK VEIL OF LOW STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE
SEEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL WITH WEAK
FORCING ALOFT DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE STAYED IN THE 50S
FOR THE MOST PART SO FAR TODAY... ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAVE MANAGED TO SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 60S.

COOL CLOUDY PATTERN WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE TRAILING THE FRONT FROM
SUNDAY TRACKS INTO THE REGION. VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO MAINTAIN A LOW POP MENTION FOR
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. BETTER CHANCE EXISTS FOR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
COMPLETELY DRY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING WHERE FORCING IS
VIRTUALLY NIL...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT
WARRANTS A 20 POP FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENABLE TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THICK CLOUD COVER
AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES SUPPORT LEANING TOWARDS WARM END OF MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM AS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A PERSISTENT AND PESKY UPPER TROUGH.

REMNANT WAVE ALOFT WILL TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. FORCING ALOFT REMAINS SUBTLE UNDERNEATH THE
WAVE ON TUESDAY...LIKELY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY EVENING...FOCUS
SHIFTS TO RAPIDLY MOVING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODEL CONSENSUS IN NICE AGREEMENT ON TIMING
OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ARRIVING DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS WEDNESDAY AND QUICKLY SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THAT LIKELY TO SEE A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLERS WITHIN THE RAIN
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY...BUT
LIKELY TO SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHARP UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTH OUT OF MICHIGAN EXPANDS OVER THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BUT REMAIN SHALLOW WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY PRESENT. WET BULB ZERO VALUES BELOW 5KFT WOULD SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT DROPS INTO OHIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY.
DEEPER FORCING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING. HELD
ONTO A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
THURSDAY...OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CU
FORMATION UNDER THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. LIKELY TO BE BREEZY AT
TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WELL WITH A COOL N/NW FLOW.

TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORTED A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS TUESDAY
AS MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. UNDERCUT MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE REGION IS
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LOW. VERY LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE 50S BOTH DAYS. A MODEL
BLEND WORKED WELL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. COULD
SEE SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WITH WINDS
REMAINING AT 10-15MPH...EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO FROST ACCRUAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM DRY.
A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGER INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 112 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD REMAINS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AS A
LARGE...BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO KEEP
PLENTIFUL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
AS THE OVERALL PATTERN FAILS TO CHANGE. WITH COOLING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED TO FALL TO
LESS THAN 3F...IFR FOG AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING SHORT
WAVE WILL ALLOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AND
PERHAPS EVEN VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AMID THE DIRTY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
BRING MORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JP/JH





000
FXUS63 KIND 030512
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
112 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE WEEK AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 647 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND
ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE PER RADAR TRENDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICTING TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING LIFT OVERNIGHT
AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

COOL SPRING AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A
THICK VEIL OF LOW STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE
SEEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL WITH WEAK
FORCING ALOFT DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE STAYED IN THE 50S
FOR THE MOST PART SO FAR TODAY... ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAVE MANAGED TO SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 60S.

COOL CLOUDY PATTERN WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE TRAILING THE FRONT FROM
SUNDAY TRACKS INTO THE REGION. VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO MAINTAIN A LOW POP MENTION FOR
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. BETTER CHANCE EXISTS FOR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
COMPLETELY DRY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING WHERE FORCING IS
VIRTUALLY NIL...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT
WARRANTS A 20 POP FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENABLE TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THICK CLOUD COVER
AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES SUPPORT LEANING TOWARDS WARM END OF MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM AS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A PERSISTENT AND PESKY UPPER TROUGH.

REMNANT WAVE ALOFT WILL TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. FORCING ALOFT REMAINS SUBTLE UNDERNEATH THE
WAVE ON TUESDAY...LIKELY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY EVENING...FOCUS
SHIFTS TO RAPIDLY MOVING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODEL CONSENSUS IN NICE AGREEMENT ON TIMING
OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ARRIVING DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS WEDNESDAY AND QUICKLY SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THAT LIKELY TO SEE A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLERS WITHIN THE RAIN
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY...BUT
LIKELY TO SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHARP UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTH OUT OF MICHIGAN EXPANDS OVER THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BUT REMAIN SHALLOW WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY PRESENT. WET BULB ZERO VALUES BELOW 5KFT WOULD SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT DROPS INTO OHIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY.
DEEPER FORCING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING. HELD
ONTO A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
THURSDAY...OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CU
FORMATION UNDER THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. LIKELY TO BE BREEZY AT
TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WELL WITH A COOL N/NW FLOW.

TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORTED A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS TUESDAY
AS MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. UNDERCUT MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE REGION IS
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LOW. VERY LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE 50S BOTH DAYS. A MODEL
BLEND WORKED WELL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. COULD
SEE SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WITH WINDS
REMAINING AT 10-15MPH...EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO FROST ACCRUAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM DRY.
A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGER INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 112 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD REMAINS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AS A
LARGE...BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO KEEP
PLENTIFUL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
AS THE OVERALL PATTERN FAILS TO CHANGE. WITH COOLING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED TO FALL TO
LESS THAN 3F...IFR FOG AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING SHORT
WAVE WILL ALLOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AND
PERHAPS EVEN VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AMID THE DIRTY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
BRING MORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JP/JH





000
FXUS63 KIND 030324
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1124 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE WEEK AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 647 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND
ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE PER RADAR TRENDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICTING TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING LIFT OVERNIGHT
AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

COOL SPRING AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A
THICK VEIL OF LOW STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE
SEEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL WITH WEAK
FORCING ALOFT DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE STAYED IN THE 50S
FOR THE MOST PART SO FAR TODAY... ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAVE MANAGED TO SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 60S.

COOL CLOUDY PATTERN WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE TRAILING THE FRONT FROM
SUNDAY TRACKS INTO THE REGION. VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO MAINTAIN A LOW POP MENTION FOR
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. BETTER CHANCE EXISTS FOR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
COMPLETELY DRY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING WHERE FORCING IS
VIRTUALLY NIL...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT
WARRANTS A 20 POP FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENABLE TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THICK CLOUD COVER
AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES SUPPORT LEANING TOWARDS WARM END OF MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM AS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A PERSISTENT AND PESKY UPPER TROUGH.

REMNANT WAVE ALOFT WILL TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. FORCING ALOFT REMAINS SUBTLE UNDERNEATH THE
WAVE ON TUESDAY...LIKELY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY EVENING...FOCUS
SHIFTS TO RAPIDLY MOVING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODEL CONSENSUS IN NICE AGREEMENT ON TIMING
OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ARRIVING DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS WEDNESDAY AND QUICKLY SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THAT LIKELY TO SEE A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLERS WITHIN THE RAIN
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY...BUT
LIKELY TO SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHARP UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTH OUT OF MICHIGAN EXPANDS OVER THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BUT REMAIN SHALLOW WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY PRESENT. WET BULB ZERO VALUES BELOW 5KFT WOULD SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT DROPS INTO OHIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY.
DEEPER FORCING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING. HELD
ONTO A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
THURSDAY...OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CU
FORMATION UNDER THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. LIKELY TO BE BREEZY AT
TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WELL WITH A COOL N/NW FLOW.

TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORTED A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS TUESDAY
AS MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. UNDERCUT MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE REGION IS
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LOW. VERY LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE 50S BOTH DAYS. A MODEL
BLEND WORKED WELL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. COULD
SEE SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WITH WINDS
REMAINING AT 10-15MPH...EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO FROST ACCRUAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM DRY.
A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGER INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1124 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD REMAINS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AS A
LARGE...BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO KEEP
PLENTIFUL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
AS THE OVERALL PATTERN FAILS TO CHANGE. WITH COOLING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED TO FALL TO
LESS THAN 3F...IFR FOG AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING SHORT
WAVE WILL ALLOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AND
PERHAPS EVEN VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AMID THE DIRTY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
BRING MORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 030324
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1124 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE WEEK AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 647 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND
ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE PER RADAR TRENDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICTING TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING LIFT OVERNIGHT
AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

COOL SPRING AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A
THICK VEIL OF LOW STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE
SEEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL WITH WEAK
FORCING ALOFT DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE STAYED IN THE 50S
FOR THE MOST PART SO FAR TODAY... ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAVE MANAGED TO SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 60S.

COOL CLOUDY PATTERN WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE TRAILING THE FRONT FROM
SUNDAY TRACKS INTO THE REGION. VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO MAINTAIN A LOW POP MENTION FOR
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. BETTER CHANCE EXISTS FOR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
COMPLETELY DRY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING WHERE FORCING IS
VIRTUALLY NIL...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT
WARRANTS A 20 POP FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENABLE TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THICK CLOUD COVER
AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES SUPPORT LEANING TOWARDS WARM END OF MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM AS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A PERSISTENT AND PESKY UPPER TROUGH.

REMNANT WAVE ALOFT WILL TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. FORCING ALOFT REMAINS SUBTLE UNDERNEATH THE
WAVE ON TUESDAY...LIKELY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY EVENING...FOCUS
SHIFTS TO RAPIDLY MOVING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODEL CONSENSUS IN NICE AGREEMENT ON TIMING
OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ARRIVING DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS WEDNESDAY AND QUICKLY SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THAT LIKELY TO SEE A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLERS WITHIN THE RAIN
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY...BUT
LIKELY TO SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHARP UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTH OUT OF MICHIGAN EXPANDS OVER THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BUT REMAIN SHALLOW WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY PRESENT. WET BULB ZERO VALUES BELOW 5KFT WOULD SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT DROPS INTO OHIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY.
DEEPER FORCING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING. HELD
ONTO A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
THURSDAY...OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CU
FORMATION UNDER THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. LIKELY TO BE BREEZY AT
TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WELL WITH A COOL N/NW FLOW.

TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORTED A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS TUESDAY
AS MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. UNDERCUT MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE REGION IS
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LOW. VERY LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE 50S BOTH DAYS. A MODEL
BLEND WORKED WELL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. COULD
SEE SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WITH WINDS
REMAINING AT 10-15MPH...EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO FROST ACCRUAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM DRY.
A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGER INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1124 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD REMAINS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AS A
LARGE...BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO KEEP
PLENTIFUL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
AS THE OVERALL PATTERN FAILS TO CHANGE. WITH COOLING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED TO FALL TO
LESS THAN 3F...IFR FOG AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING SHORT
WAVE WILL ALLOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AND
PERHAPS EVEN VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AMID THE DIRTY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
BRING MORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 030232
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1032 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE WEEK AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 647 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND
ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE PER RADAR TRENDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICTING TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING LIFT OVERNIGHT
AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

COOL SPRING AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A
THICK VEIL OF LOW STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE
SEEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL WITH WEAK
FORCING ALOFT DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE STAYED IN THE 50S
FOR THE MOST PART SO FAR TODAY... ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAVE MANAGED TO SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 60S.

COOL CLOUDY PATTERN WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE TRAILING THE FRONT FROM
SUNDAY TRACKS INTO THE REGION. VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO MAINTAIN A LOW POP MENTION FOR
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. BETTER CHANCE EXISTS FOR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
COMPLETELY DRY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING WHERE FORCING IS
VIRTUALLY NIL...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT
WARRANTS A 20 POP FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENABLE TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THICK CLOUD COVER
AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES SUPPORT LEANING TOWARDS WARM END OF MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM AS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A PERSISTENT AND PESKY UPPER TROUGH.

REMNANT WAVE ALOFT WILL TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. FORCING ALOFT REMAINS SUBTLE UNDERNEATH THE
WAVE ON TUESDAY...LIKELY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY EVENING...FOCUS
SHIFTS TO RAPIDLY MOVING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODEL CONSENSUS IN NICE AGREEMENT ON TIMING
OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ARRIVING DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS WEDNESDAY AND QUICKLY SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THAT LIKELY TO SEE A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLERS WITHIN THE RAIN
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY...BUT
LIKELY TO SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHARP UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTH OUT OF MICHIGAN EXPANDS OVER THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BUT REMAIN SHALLOW WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY PRESENT. WET BULB ZERO VALUES BELOW 5KFT WOULD SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT DROPS INTO OHIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY.
DEEPER FORCING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING. HELD
ONTO A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
THURSDAY...OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CU
FORMATION UNDER THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. LIKELY TO BE BREEZY AT
TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WELL WITH A COOL N/NW FLOW.

TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORTED A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS TUESDAY
AS MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. UNDERCUT MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE REGION IS
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LOW. VERY LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE 50S BOTH DAYS. A MODEL
BLEND WORKED WELL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. COULD
SEE SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WITH WINDS
REMAINING AT 10-15MPH...EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO FROST ACCRUAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM DRY.
A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGER INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020300Z IND TAFS/...

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS IR IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING TAF.

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 020000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA MAY DETERIORATE TO BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED DUE
TO FOG.

TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO KEEP PLENTIFUL
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST A
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT PUSHES ACROSS INDIANA. GIVEN THE ONGOING
SATELLITE TRENDS WITH PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED COOLING...WILL
TREND TOWARD IFR OVERNIGHT.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DRY AIR INTRUDING IN TO THE COLUMN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH
LCL TRENDING HIGHS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...HAVE TRENDED TAFS
TOWARD VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 022310
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
710 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE WEEK AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 647 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND
ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE PER RADAR TRENDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICTING TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING LIFT OVERNIGHT
AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

COOL SPRING AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A
THICK VEIL OF LOW STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE
SEEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL WITH WEAK
FORCING ALOFT DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE STAYED IN THE 50S
FOR THE MOST PART SO FAR TODAY... ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAVE MANAGED TO SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 60S.

COOL CLOUDY PATTERN WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE TRAILING THE FRONT FROM
SUNDAY TRACKS INTO THE REGION. VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO MAINTAIN A LOW POP MENTION FOR
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. BETTER CHANCE EXISTS FOR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
COMPLETELY DRY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING WHERE FORCING IS
VIRTUALLY NIL...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT
WARRANTS A 20 POP FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENABLE TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THICK CLOUD COVER
AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES SUPPORT LEANING TOWARDS WARM END OF MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM AS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A PERSISTENT AND PESKY UPPER TROUGH.

REMNANT WAVE ALOFT WILL TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. FORCING ALOFT REMAINS SUBTLE UNDERNEATH THE
WAVE ON TUESDAY...LIKELY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY EVENING...FOCUS
SHIFTS TO RAPIDLY MOVING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODEL CONSENSUS IN NICE AGREEMENT ON TIMING
OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ARRIVING DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS WEDNESDAY AND QUICKLY SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THAT LIKELY TO SEE A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLERS WITHIN THE RAIN
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY...BUT
LIKELY TO SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHARP UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTH OUT OF MICHIGAN EXPANDS OVER THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BUT REMAIN SHALLOW WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY PRESENT. WET BULB ZERO VALUES BELOW 5KFT WOULD SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT DROPS INTO OHIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY.
DEEPER FORCING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING. HELD
ONTO A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
THURSDAY...OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CU
FORMATION UNDER THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. LIKELY TO BE BREEZY AT
TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WELL WITH A COOL N/NW FLOW.

TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORTED A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS TUESDAY
AS MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. UNDERCUT MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE REGION IS
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LOW. VERY LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE 50S BOTH DAYS. A MODEL
BLEND WORKED WELL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. COULD
SEE SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WITH WINDS
REMAINING AT 10-15MPH...EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO FROST ACCRUAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM DRY.
A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGER INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA MAY DETERIORATE TO BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED DUE
TO FOG.

TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO KEEP PLENTIFUL
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST A
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT PUSHES ACROSS INDIANA. GIVEN THE ONGOING
SATELLITE TRENDS WITH PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED COOLING...WILL
TREND TOWARD IFR OVERNIGHT.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DRY AIR INTRUDING IN TO THE COLUMN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH
LCL TRENDING HIGHS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...HAVE TRENDED TAFS
TOWARD VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 022247
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
647 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE WEEK AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 647 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND
ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE PER RADAR TRENDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICTING TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING LIFT OVERNIGHT
AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

COOL SPRING AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A
THICK VEIL OF LOW STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE
SEEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL WITH WEAK
FORCING ALOFT DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE STAYED IN THE 50S
FOR THE MOST PART SO FAR TODAY... ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAVE MANAGED TO SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 60S.

COOL CLOUDY PATTERN WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE TRAILING THE FRONT FROM
SUNDAY TRACKS INTO THE REGION. VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO MAINTAIN A LOW POP MENTION FOR
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. BETTER CHANCE EXISTS FOR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
COMPLETELY DRY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING WHERE FORCING IS
VIRTUALLY NIL...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT
WARRANTS A 20 POP FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENABLE TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THICK CLOUD COVER
AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES SUPPORT LEANING TOWARDS WARM END OF MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM AS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A PERSISTENT AND PESKY UPPER TROUGH.

REMNANT WAVE ALOFT WILL TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. FORCING ALOFT REMAINS SUBTLE UNDERNEATH THE
WAVE ON TUESDAY...LIKELY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY EVENING...FOCUS
SHIFTS TO RAPIDLY MOVING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODEL CONSENSUS IN NICE AGREEMENT ON TIMING
OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ARRIVING DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS WEDNESDAY AND QUICKLY SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THAT LIKELY TO SEE A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLERS WITHIN THE RAIN
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY...BUT
LIKELY TO SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHARP UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTH OUT OF MICHIGAN EXPANDS OVER THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BUT REMAIN SHALLOW WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY PRESENT. WET BULB ZERO VALUES BELOW 5KFT WOULD SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT DROPS INTO OHIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY.
DEEPER FORCING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING. HELD
ONTO A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
THURSDAY...OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CU
FORMATION UNDER THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. LIKELY TO BE BREEZY AT
TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WELL WITH A COOL N/NW FLOW.

TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORTED A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS TUESDAY
AS MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. UNDERCUT MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE REGION IS
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LOW. VERY LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE 50S BOTH DAYS. A MODEL
BLEND WORKED WELL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. COULD
SEE SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WITH WINDS
REMAINING AT 10-15MPH...EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO FROST ACCRUAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM DRY.
A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGER INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 022100Z IND TAF/...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SATELLITE SHOWS
EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS THE STATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
MADE TO THE ONGOING TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...AND BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS BELIEVE NORTHERN SITES WILL REMAIN MVFR WHILE SOUTHERN SITES
GO JUST INTO VFR CATEGORY FOR A WHILE. HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES DURING THE
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER AT ANY SITE TODAY...BUT ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF.  WITH A BOUNDARY NEAR KIND/KBMG EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WINDS MAY BECOME WESTERLY AT TIMES EARLY ON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50/PUMA





000
FXUS63 KIND 022247
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
647 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE WEEK AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 647 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND
ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE PER RADAR TRENDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICTING TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING LIFT OVERNIGHT
AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

COOL SPRING AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A
THICK VEIL OF LOW STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE
SEEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL WITH WEAK
FORCING ALOFT DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE STAYED IN THE 50S
FOR THE MOST PART SO FAR TODAY... ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAVE MANAGED TO SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 60S.

COOL CLOUDY PATTERN WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE TRAILING THE FRONT FROM
SUNDAY TRACKS INTO THE REGION. VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO MAINTAIN A LOW POP MENTION FOR
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. BETTER CHANCE EXISTS FOR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
COMPLETELY DRY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING WHERE FORCING IS
VIRTUALLY NIL...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT
WARRANTS A 20 POP FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENABLE TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THICK CLOUD COVER
AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES SUPPORT LEANING TOWARDS WARM END OF MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM AS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A PERSISTENT AND PESKY UPPER TROUGH.

REMNANT WAVE ALOFT WILL TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. FORCING ALOFT REMAINS SUBTLE UNDERNEATH THE
WAVE ON TUESDAY...LIKELY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY EVENING...FOCUS
SHIFTS TO RAPIDLY MOVING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODEL CONSENSUS IN NICE AGREEMENT ON TIMING
OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ARRIVING DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS WEDNESDAY AND QUICKLY SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THAT LIKELY TO SEE A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLERS WITHIN THE RAIN
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY...BUT
LIKELY TO SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHARP UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTH OUT OF MICHIGAN EXPANDS OVER THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BUT REMAIN SHALLOW WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY PRESENT. WET BULB ZERO VALUES BELOW 5KFT WOULD SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT DROPS INTO OHIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY.
DEEPER FORCING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING. HELD
ONTO A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
THURSDAY...OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CU
FORMATION UNDER THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. LIKELY TO BE BREEZY AT
TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WELL WITH A COOL N/NW FLOW.

TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORTED A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS TUESDAY
AS MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. UNDERCUT MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE REGION IS
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LOW. VERY LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE 50S BOTH DAYS. A MODEL
BLEND WORKED WELL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. COULD
SEE SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WITH WINDS
REMAINING AT 10-15MPH...EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO FROST ACCRUAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM DRY.
A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGER INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 022100Z IND TAF/...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SATELLITE SHOWS
EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS THE STATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
MADE TO THE ONGOING TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...AND BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS BELIEVE NORTHERN SITES WILL REMAIN MVFR WHILE SOUTHERN SITES
GO JUST INTO VFR CATEGORY FOR A WHILE. HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES DURING THE
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER AT ANY SITE TODAY...BUT ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF.  WITH A BOUNDARY NEAR KIND/KBMG EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WINDS MAY BECOME WESTERLY AT TIMES EARLY ON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50/PUMA





000
FXUS63 KIND 022040
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
440 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE WEEK AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

COOL SPRING AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A
THICK VEIL OF LOW STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE
SEEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL WITH WEAK
FORCING ALOFT DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE STAYED IN THE 50S
FOR THE MOST PART SO FAR TODAY... ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAVE MANAGED TO SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 60S.

COOL CLOUDY PATTERN WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE TRAILING THE FRONT FROM
SUNDAY TRACKS INTO THE REGION. VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO MAINTAIN A LOW POP MENTION FOR
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. BETTER CHANCE EXISTS FOR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
COMPLETELY DRY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING WHERE FORCING IS
VIRTUALLY NIL...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT
WARRANTS A 20 POP FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENABLE TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THICK CLOUD COVER
AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES SUPPORT LEANING TOWARDS WARM END OF MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM AS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A PERSISTENT AND PESKY UPPER TROUGH.

REMNANT WAVE ALOFT WILL TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. FORCING ALOFT REMAINS SUBTLE UNDERNEATH THE
WAVE ON TUESDAY...LIKELY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY EVENING...FOCUS
SHIFTS TO RAPIDLY MOVING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODEL CONSENSUS IN NICE AGREEMENT ON TIMING
OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ARRIVING DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS WEDNESDAY AND QUICKLY SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THAT LIKELY TO SEE A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLERS WITHIN THE RAIN
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY...BUT
LIKELY TO SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHARP UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTH OUT OF MICHIGAN EXPANDS OVER THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BUT REMAIN SHALLOW WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY PRESENT. WET BULB ZERO VALUES BELOW 5KFT WOULD SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT DROPS INTO OHIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY.
DEEPER FORCING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING. HELD
ONTO A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
THURSDAY...OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CU
FORMATION UNDER THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. LIKELY TO BE BREEZY AT
TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WELL WITH A COOL N/NW FLOW.

TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORTED A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS TUESDAY
AS MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. UNDERCUT MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE REGION IS
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LOW. VERY LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE 50S BOTH DAYS. A MODEL
BLEND WORKED WELL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. COULD
SEE SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WITH WINDS
REMAINING AT 10-15MPH...EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO FROST ACCRUAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM DRY.
A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGER INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 022100Z IND TAF/...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SATELLITE SHOWS
EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS THE STATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
MADE TO THE ONGOING TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...AND BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS BELIEVE NORTHERN SITES WILL REMAIN MVFR WHILE SOUTHERN SITES
GO JUST INTO VFR CATEGORY FOR A WHILE. HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES DURING THE
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER AT ANY SITE TODAY...BUT ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF.  WITH A BOUNDARY NEAR KIND/KBMG EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WINDS MAY BECOME WESTERLY AT TIMES EARLY ON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50/PUMA





000
FXUS63 KIND 021951
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE WEEK AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

COOL SPRING AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A
THICK VEIL OF LOW STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE
SEEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL WITH WEAK
FORCING ALOFT DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE STAYED IN THE 50S
FOR THE MOST PART SO FAR TODAY... ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAVE MANAGED TO SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 60S.

COOL CLOUDY PATTERN WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE TRAILING THE FRONT FROM
SUNDAY TRACKS INTO THE REGION. VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO MAINTAIN A LOW POP MENTION FOR
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. BETTER CHANCE EXISTS FOR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
COMPLETELY DRY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING WHERE FORCING IS
VIRTUALLY NIL...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT
WARRANTS A 20 POP FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENABLE TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THICK CLOUD COVER
AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES SUPPORT LEANING TOWARDS WARM END OF MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM AS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A PERSISTENT AND PESKY UPPER TROUGH.

REMNANT WAVE ALOFT WILL TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. FORCING ALOFT REMAINS SUBTLE UNDERNEATH THE
WAVE ON TUESDAY...LIKELY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY EVENING...FOCUS
SHIFTS TO RAPIDLY MOVING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODEL CONSENSUS IN NICE AGREEMENT ON TIMING
OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ARRIVING DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS WEDNESDAY AND QUICKLY SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THAT LIKELY TO SEE A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLERS WITHIN THE RAIN
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY...BUT
LIKELY TO SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHARP UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTH OUT OF MICHIGAN EXPANDS OVER THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BUT REMAIN SHALLOW WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY PRESENT. WET BULB ZERO VALUES BELOW 5KFT WOULD SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT DROPS INTO OHIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY.
DEEPER FORCING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING. HELD
ONTO A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
THURSDAY...OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CU
FORMATION UNDER THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. LIKELY TO BE BREEZY AT
TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WELL WITH A COOL N/NW FLOW.

TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORTED A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS TUESDAY
AS MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. UNDERCUT MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE REGION IS
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LOW. VERY LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE 50S BOTH DAYS. A MODEL
BLEND WORKED WELL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. COULD
SEE SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WITH WINDS
REMAINING AT 10-15MPH...EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO FROST ACCRUAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM DRY.
A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGER INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...AND BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS BELIEVE NORTHERN SITES WILL REMAIN MVFR WHILE SOUTHERN SITES
GO JUST INTO VFR CATEGORY FOR A WHILE. HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES DURING THE
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER AT ANY SITE TODAY...BUT ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF.  WITH A BOUNDARY NEAR KIND/KBMG EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WINDS MAY BECOME WESTERLY AT TIMES EARLY ON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50





000
FXUS63 KIND 021820
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
220 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST...BUT A
COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.   A CLOSED AND DEEPENING UPPER LOW
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO INDIANA WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH VERY COOL
TEMPERATURES AROUND WEDNESDAY.  THIS UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE ON TO THE EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

LOW STRATUS SOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS WEAK COLD
ADVECTION SETS IN. HAVE SEEN A FEW SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS SPECKLED ABOUT THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL. 14Z TEMPS
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S FAR SOUTH.

FORECAST IN REALLY GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. STRATUS LIKELY GOING NOWHERE FAST TODAY AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH AN
INVERSION. SHOULD SEE CEILINGS RISE THIS AFTERNOON FROM CURRENT
LEVELS BUT THE INVERSION NEVER REALLY GOES AWAY. TRAILING UPPER
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO
THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY BRING ENOUGH
FORCING ALOFT TO GENERATE AN INCREASE IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AND FOCUS HIGHEST POPS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON.

BASED ON CURRENT READING AND LOW LEVEL THERMALS...LOWERED HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS READINGS. EXPECT MOST AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 TO STAY IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE LOTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION.  AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME DRYING
ALOFT LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.

MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MOVE IT SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  WITH VERY COLD CONDITIONS ALOFT...WILL MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDER MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS AND
NEAR A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
TUESDAY AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM DRY.
A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGER INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...AND BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS BELIEVE NORTHERN SITES WILL REMAIN MVFR WHILE SOUTHERN SITES
GO JUST INTO VFR CATEGORY FOR A WHILE. HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES DURING THE
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER AT ANY SITE TODAY...BUT ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF.  WITH A BOUNDARY NEAR KIND/KBMG EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WINDS MAY BECOME WESTERLY AT TIMES EARLY ON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50





000
FXUS63 KIND 021646
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1246 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST...BUT A
COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.   A CLOSED AND DEEPENING UPPER LOW
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO INDIANA WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH VERY COOL
TEMPERATURES AROUND WEDNESDAY.  THIS UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE ON TO THE EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

LOW STRATUS SOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS WEAK COLD
ADVECTION SETS IN. HAVE SEEN A FEW SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS SPECKLED ABOUT THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL. 14Z TEMPS
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S FAR SOUTH.

FORECAST IN REALLY GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. STRATUS LIKELY GOING NOWHERE FAST TODAY AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH AN
INVERSION. SHOULD SEE CEILINGS RISE THIS AFTERNOON FROM CURRENT
LEVELS BUT THE INVERSION NEVER REALLY GOES AWAY. TRAILING UPPER
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO
THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY BRING ENOUGH
FORCING ALOFT TO GENERATE AN INCREASE IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AND FOCUS HIGHEST POPS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON.

BASED ON CURRENT READING AND LOW LEVEL THERMALS...LOWERED HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS READINGS. EXPECT MOST AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 TO STAY IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE LOTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION.  AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME DRYING
ALOFT LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.

MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MOVE IT SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  WITH VERY COLD CONDITIONS ALOFT...WILL MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDER MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS AND
NEAR A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
TUESDAY AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA ON THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST ON THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO
THE WEEKEND.   FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S...BUT A
WARMING TREND WILL QUICKLY COMMENCE BY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...AND BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS BELIEVE NORTHERN SITES WILL REMAIN MVFR WHILE SOUTHERN SITES
GO JUST INTO VFR CATEGORY FOR A WHILE. HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES DURING THE
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER AT ANY SITE TODAY...BUT ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF.  WITH A BOUNDARY NEAR KIND/KBMG EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WINDS MAY BECOME WESTERLY AT TIMES EARLY ON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...50





000
FXUS63 KIND 021646
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1246 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST...BUT A
COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.   A CLOSED AND DEEPENING UPPER LOW
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO INDIANA WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH VERY COOL
TEMPERATURES AROUND WEDNESDAY.  THIS UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE ON TO THE EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

LOW STRATUS SOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS WEAK COLD
ADVECTION SETS IN. HAVE SEEN A FEW SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS SPECKLED ABOUT THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL. 14Z TEMPS
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S FAR SOUTH.

FORECAST IN REALLY GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. STRATUS LIKELY GOING NOWHERE FAST TODAY AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH AN
INVERSION. SHOULD SEE CEILINGS RISE THIS AFTERNOON FROM CURRENT
LEVELS BUT THE INVERSION NEVER REALLY GOES AWAY. TRAILING UPPER
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO
THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY BRING ENOUGH
FORCING ALOFT TO GENERATE AN INCREASE IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AND FOCUS HIGHEST POPS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON.

BASED ON CURRENT READING AND LOW LEVEL THERMALS...LOWERED HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS READINGS. EXPECT MOST AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 TO STAY IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE LOTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION.  AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME DRYING
ALOFT LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.

MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MOVE IT SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  WITH VERY COLD CONDITIONS ALOFT...WILL MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDER MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS AND
NEAR A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
TUESDAY AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA ON THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST ON THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO
THE WEEKEND.   FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S...BUT A
WARMING TREND WILL QUICKLY COMMENCE BY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...AND BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS BELIEVE NORTHERN SITES WILL REMAIN MVFR WHILE SOUTHERN SITES
GO JUST INTO VFR CATEGORY FOR A WHILE. HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES DURING THE
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER AT ANY SITE TODAY...BUT ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF.  WITH A BOUNDARY NEAR KIND/KBMG EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WINDS MAY BECOME WESTERLY AT TIMES EARLY ON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...50





000
FXUS63 KIND 021417
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1017 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST...BUT A COUPLE OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATER TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.   A CLOSED AND DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO INDIANA WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH VERY COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND WEDNESDAY.  THIS UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE ON TO THE EAST
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

LOW STRATUS SOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS WEAK COLD
ADVECTION SETS IN. HAVE SEEN A FEW SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS SPECKLED ABOUT THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL. 14Z TEMPS
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S FAR SOUTH.

FORECAST IN REALLY GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. STRATUS LIKELY GOING NOWHERE FAST TODAY AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH AN
INVERSION. SHOULD SEE CEILINGS RISE THIS AFTERNOON FROM CURRENT
LEVELS BUT THE INVERSION NEVER REALLY GOES AWAY. TRAILING UPPER
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO
THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY BRING ENOUGH
FORCING ALOFT TO GENERATE AN INCREASE IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AND FOCUS HIGHEST POPS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON.

BASED ON CURRENT READING AND LOW LEVEL THERMALS...LOWERED HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS READINGS. EXPECT MOST AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 TO STAY IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS OUR REGION.  AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME DRYING ALOFT LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.

MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MOVE IT SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND TO INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WITH VERY
COLD CONDITIONS ALOFT...WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS AND
NEAR A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
TUESDAY AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA ON THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST ON THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO
THE WEEKEND.   FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S...BUT A
WARMING TREND WILL QUICKLY COMMENCE BY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

SOME MVFR FOG IS AROUND SO ADDED IT TO THE KIND TAF...BUT THE IFR
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

KIND AND KLAF ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING IFR CONDITIONS WHICH COULD
LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. AT THAT POINT...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CATEGORY. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS TAF SITES FALL INTO CYCLONIC FLOW. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/50





000
FXUS63 KIND 021412
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1012 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST...BUT A COUPLE OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATER TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.   A CLOSED AND DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO INDIANA WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH VERY COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND WEDNESDAY.  THIS UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE ON TO THE EAST
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

LOW STRATUS SOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS WEAK COLD
ADVECTION SETS IN. HAVE SEEN A FEW SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS SPECKLED ABOUT THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL. 14Z TEMPS
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S FAR SOUTH.

FORECAST IN REALLY GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. STRATUS LIKELY GOING NOWHERE FAST TODAY AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH AN
INVERSION. SHOULD SEE CEILINGS RISE THIS AFTERNOON FROM CURRENT
LEVELS BUT THE INVERSION NEVER REALLY GOES AWAY. TRAILING UPPER
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO
THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY BRING ENOUGH
FORCING ALOFT TO GENERATE AN INCREASE IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AND FOCUS HIGHEST POPS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON.

BASED ON CURRENT READING AND LOW LEVEL THERMALS...LOWERED HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS READINGS. EXPECT MOST AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 TO STAY IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS OUR REGION.  AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME DRYING ALOFT LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.

MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MOVE IT SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND TO INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WITH VERY
COLD CONDITIONS ALOFT...WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS AND
NEAR A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
TUESDAY AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA ON THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST ON THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO
THE WEEKEND.   FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S...BUT A
WARMING TREND WILL QUICKLY COMMENCE BY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

KIND AND KLAF ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING IFR CONDITIONS WHICH COULD
LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. AT THAT POINT...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CATEGORY. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS TAF SITES FALL INTO CYCLONIC FLOW. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 021412
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1012 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST...BUT A COUPLE OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATER TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.   A CLOSED AND DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO INDIANA WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH VERY COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND WEDNESDAY.  THIS UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE ON TO THE EAST
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

LOW STRATUS SOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS WEAK COLD
ADVECTION SETS IN. HAVE SEEN A FEW SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS SPECKLED ABOUT THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL. 14Z TEMPS
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S FAR SOUTH.

FORECAST IN REALLY GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. STRATUS LIKELY GOING NOWHERE FAST TODAY AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH AN
INVERSION. SHOULD SEE CEILINGS RISE THIS AFTERNOON FROM CURRENT
LEVELS BUT THE INVERSION NEVER REALLY GOES AWAY. TRAILING UPPER
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO
THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY BRING ENOUGH
FORCING ALOFT TO GENERATE AN INCREASE IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AND FOCUS HIGHEST POPS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON.

BASED ON CURRENT READING AND LOW LEVEL THERMALS...LOWERED HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS READINGS. EXPECT MOST AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 TO STAY IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS OUR REGION.  AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME DRYING ALOFT LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.

MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MOVE IT SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND TO INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WITH VERY
COLD CONDITIONS ALOFT...WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS AND
NEAR A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
TUESDAY AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA ON THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST ON THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO
THE WEEKEND.   FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S...BUT A
WARMING TREND WILL QUICKLY COMMENCE BY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

KIND AND KLAF ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING IFR CONDITIONS WHICH COULD
LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. AT THAT POINT...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CATEGORY. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS TAF SITES FALL INTO CYCLONIC FLOW. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 021138
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
738 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST...BUT A COUPLE OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATER TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.   A CLOSED AND DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO INDIANA WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH VERY COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND WEDNESDAY.  THIS UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE ON TO THE EAST
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS OUR REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER OHIO CONTINUES MOVING EAST.  A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL PULL LOW CLOUDS SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.  DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING...BUT MODELS INDICATE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUR WAY.   WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY AS COOLER AIR SPREADS SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION.
WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS TO THE
MIDDLE 60S ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.   LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE
40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.  WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV NUMBERS TODAY
AND THE WARMER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS OUR REGION.  AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME DRYING ALOFT LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.

MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MOVE IT SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND TO INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WITH VERY
COLD CONDITIONS ALOFT...WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS AND
NEAR A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
TUESDAY AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA ON THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST ON THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO
THE WEEKEND.   FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S...BUT A
WARMING TREND WILL QUICKLY COMMENCE BY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

KIND AND KLAF ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING IFR CONDITIONS WHICH COULD
LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. AT THAT POINT...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CATEGORY. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS TAF SITES FALL INTO CYCLONIC FLOW. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 021138
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
738 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST...BUT A COUPLE OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATER TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.   A CLOSED AND DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO INDIANA WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH VERY COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND WEDNESDAY.  THIS UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE ON TO THE EAST
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS OUR REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER OHIO CONTINUES MOVING EAST.  A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL PULL LOW CLOUDS SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.  DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING...BUT MODELS INDICATE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUR WAY.   WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY AS COOLER AIR SPREADS SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION.
WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS TO THE
MIDDLE 60S ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.   LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE
40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.  WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV NUMBERS TODAY
AND THE WARMER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS OUR REGION.  AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME DRYING ALOFT LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.

MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MOVE IT SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND TO INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WITH VERY
COLD CONDITIONS ALOFT...WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS AND
NEAR A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
TUESDAY AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA ON THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST ON THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO
THE WEEKEND.   FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S...BUT A
WARMING TREND WILL QUICKLY COMMENCE BY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

KIND AND KLAF ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING IFR CONDITIONS WHICH COULD
LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. AT THAT POINT...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CATEGORY. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS TAF SITES FALL INTO CYCLONIC FLOW. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 020831
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
431 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST...BUT A COUPLE OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATER TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.   A CLOSED AND DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO INDIANA WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH VERY COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND WEDNESDAY.  THIS UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE ON TO THE EAST
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS OUR REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER OHIO CONTINUES MOVING EAST.  A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL PULL LOW CLOUDS SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.  DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING...BUT MODELS INDICATE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUR WAY.   WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY AS COOLER AIR SPREADS SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION.
WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS TO THE
MIDDLE 60S ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.   LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE
40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.  WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV NUMBERS TODAY
AND THE WARMER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS OUR REGION.  AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME DRYING ALOFT LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.

MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MOVE IT SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND TO INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WITH VERY
COLD CONDITIONS ALOFT...WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS AND
NEAR A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
TUESDAY AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA ON THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST ON THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO
THE WEEKEND.   FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S...BUT A
WARMING TREND WILL QUICKLY COMMENCE BY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPDATE...
CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED TO IFR CATEGORY AT KIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY AFTER 15Z.

EVENING RAINS HAVE LEFT A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING AS NW WINDS SPILL INTO
INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS COMBINATION IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS ON MONDAY AMID
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG WITH LAPSE RATES FAVORABLE FOR
INSTABILITY SHOWERS. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE TAFS TOWARD
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH VCSH MENTION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 020753
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST...BUT A COUPLE OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATER TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.   A CLOSED AND DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO INDIANA WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH VERY COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND WEDNESDAY.  THIS UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE ON TO THE EAST
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS OUR REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER OHIO CONTINUES MOVING EAST.  A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL PULL LOW CLOUDS SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.  DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING...BUT MODELS INDICATE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUR WAY.   WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY AS COOLER AIR SPREADS SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION.
WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS TO THE
MIDDLE 60S ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.   LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE
40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.  WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV NUMBERS TODAY
AND THE WARMER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS OUR REGION.  AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME DRYING ALOFT LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.

MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MOVE IT SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND TO INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WITH VERY
COLD CONDITIONS ALOFT...WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS AND
NEAR A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
TUESDAY AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA ON THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST ON THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO
THE WEEKEND.   FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S...BUT A
WARMING TREND WILL QUICKLY COMMENCE BY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1128 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY AFTER 15Z.

EVENING RAINS HAVE LEFT A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING AS NW WINDS SPILL INTO
INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS COMBINATION IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS ON MONDAY AMID
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG WITH LAPSE RATES FAVORABLE FOR
INSTABILITY SHOWERS. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE TAFS TOWARD
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH VCSH MENTION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 020337
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1137 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. AFTER THAT UPPER WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH AN EASTERN U.S.
UPPER TROUGH BRINGING SOME LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA
OFF AND ON UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THAT POINT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SWING SOUTH AND BRING BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOW SHOWER CHANCES IN IT/S WAKE. DRY
WEATHER BUILDS IN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO END THE WEEK AND BEGIN THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISOLATED SUPERCELLS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT 2.5 HOURS AS THE SHORT WAVE QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA. RAISED POPS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA AS PRECIP THERE APPEAR A CERTAINTY. OTHERWISE
TRENDED TOWARD BLEND OF MODELS OVERNIGHT WITH FOG AND EXPECTED
COLD AIR ADVECTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

/THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 646 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO GRIDS...BUT MAJORITY REMAIN IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.
WATCHING DEVELOPMENT OVER ILLINOIS AS UPPER WAVE OVER WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS PUSHES EAST/NORTHEAST. MAY SEE SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP
INTO CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

AT 3 PM SEEING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND KENTUCKY. COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
PRETTY MUCH ANYTIME NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND HRRR
SHOWS THE CURRENT ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTH AND INTO THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST AROUND 0Z AND OVERSPREADING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FROM THERE. UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH THIS AREA
WILL GET SO KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS WITH THE FRONTAL PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTH. NOT READY TO CALL OFF SEVERE STORM CHANCES WITH CAPES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA OVER 1000 AND AN UPPER JETLET ON
ITS WAY OUT OF THE PLAINS AND HEADING THIS WAY. BEST UPPER FORCING
WILL BE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE UPPER WAVE THAT ARRIVES AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS THROUGH SO KEPT LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF BUT DROP THINGS OFF
PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

UNCERTAIN ABOUT DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM SO WILL LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FORECAST MODELS ARE KEEPING THE UPPER TROUGH FURTHER WEST THIS SET
OF RUNS AND TAKING LONGER TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK IN OVER THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE SNEAKING BACK INTO THE
FORECAST WITH WEAK UPPER WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN TROUGH AND A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING DOWN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THESE CHANCES WILL BE SMALL AND ONLY
LOOKING AT LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG SYSTEM. WITH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE IN BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THEN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AIR AND CLOUD COVER. LOWS SHOULD STAY NEAR
NORMAL WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A FEW REMNANT OR LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR TO REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA (MOSTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES) IN THE WAKE
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO BE FOLLOWED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH. VERY WEAK/LIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN
MORE ANEMIC CHANCES BY THURSDAY. THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM PROJECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA APPEARS TO
BE TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OMITTED FROM THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS ADDED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
UPDATES ESPECIALLY IF THE INSTABILITY LOOKS DECENT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1128 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY AFTER 15Z.

EVENING RAINS HAVE LEFT A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING AS NW WINDS SPILL INTO
INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS COMBINATION IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS ON MONDAY AMID
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG WITH LAPSE RATES FAVORABLE FOR
INSTABILITY SHOWERS. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE TAFS TOWARD
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH VCSH MENTION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD/JP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 020256
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1056 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
NO SECTIONS UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. AFTER THAT UPPER WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH AN EASTERN U.S.
UPPER TROUGH BRINGING SOME LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA
OFF AND ON UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THAT POINT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SWING SOUTH AND BRING BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOW SHOWER CHANCES IN IT/S WAKE. DRY
WEATHER BUILDS IN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO END THE WEEK AND BEGIN THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISOLATED SUPERCELLS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT 2.5 HOURS AS THE SHORT WAVE QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA. RAISED POPS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA AS PRECIP THERE APPEAR A CERTAINTY. OTHERWISE
TRENDED TOWARD BLEND OF MODELS OVERNIGHT WITH FOG AND EXPECTED
COLD AIR ADVECTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

/THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 646 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO GRIDS...BUT MAJORITY REMAIN IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.
WATCHING DEVELOPMENT OVER ILLINOIS AS UPPER WAVE OVER WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS PUSHES EAST/NORTHEAST. MAY SEE SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP
INTO CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

AT 3 PM SEEING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND KENTUCKY. COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
PRETTY MUCH ANYTIME NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND HRRR
SHOWS THE CURRENT ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTH AND INTO THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST AROUND 0Z AND OVERSPREADING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FROM THERE. UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH THIS AREA
WILL GET SO KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS WITH THE FRONTAL PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTH. NOT READY TO CALL OFF SEVERE STORM CHANCES WITH CAPES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA OVER 1000 AND AN UPPER JETLET ON
ITS WAY OUT OF THE PLAINS AND HEADING THIS WAY. BEST UPPER FORCING
WILL BE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE UPPER WAVE THAT ARRIVES AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS THROUGH SO KEPT LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF BUT DROP THINGS OFF
PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

UNCERTAIN ABOUT DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM SO WILL LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FORECAST MODELS ARE KEEPING THE UPPER TROUGH FURTHER WEST THIS SET
OF RUNS AND TAKING LONGER TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK IN OVER THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE SNEAKING BACK INTO THE
FORECAST WITH WEAK UPPER WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN TROUGH AND A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING DOWN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THESE CHANCES WILL BE SMALL AND ONLY
LOOKING AT LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG SYSTEM. WITH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE IN BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THEN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AIR AND CLOUD COVER. LOWS SHOULD STAY NEAR
NORMAL WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A FEW REMNANT OR LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR TO REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA (MOSTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES) IN THE WAKE
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO BE FOLLOWED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH. VERY WEAK/LIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN
MORE ANEMIC CHANCES BY THURSDAY. THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM PROJECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA APPEARS TO
BE TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OMITTED FROM THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS ADDED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
UPDATES ESPECIALLY IF THE INSTABILITY LOOKS DECENT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

RADAR TRENDS SHOW THUNDER HAS EXITED THE TAF SITE. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD A LINGERING SHOWER FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOUR. EVENING RAINS
AND OVERNIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO LOW CIGS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT...WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION IN THE NEXT
ISSUANCE SHORTLY. OVERALL...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE TO IFR OR WORSE OVERNIGHT.

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 020000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

RAPID REFRESH CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND PROPAGATING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. RADAR SHOWS
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW HAVE USED VCTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR WINDOW OF LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES ON NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY
ALONG WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE REACHABLE MID TO UPPER 50S SUGGESTS
AFTERNOON SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AND LINGERING
MVFR CIGS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD/JP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 020138
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
938 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM SECTION UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. AFTER THAT UPPER WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH AN EASTERN U.S.
UPPER TROUGH BRINGING SOME LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA
OFF AND ON UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THAT POINT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SWING SOUTH AND BRING BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOW SHOWER CHANCES IN IT/S WAKE. DRY
WEATHER BUILDS IN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO END THE WEEK AND BEGIN THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISOLATED SUPERCELLS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINSH
OVER THE NEXT 2.5 HOURS AS THE SHORT WAVE QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA. RAISED POPS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA AS PRECIP THERE APPEAR A CERTAINTY. OTHERWISE
TRENDED TOWARD BLEND OF MODELS OVERNIGHT WITH FOG AND EXPECTED
COLD AIR ADVECTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

/THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 646 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO GRIDS...BUT MAJORITY REMAIN IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.
WATCHING DEVELOPMENT OVER ILLINOIS AS UPPER WAVE OVER WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS PUSHES EAST/NORTHEAST. MAY SEE SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP
INTO CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

AT 3 PM SEEING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND KENTUCKY. COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
PRETTY MUCH ANYTIME NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND HRRR
SHOWS THE CURRENT ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTH AND INTO THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST AROUND 0Z AND OVERSPREADING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FROM THERE. UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH THIS AREA
WILL GET SO KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS WITH THE FRONTAL PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTH. NOT READY TO CALL OFF SEVERE STORM CHANCES WITH CAPES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA OVER 1000 AND AN UPPER JETLET ON
ITS WAY OUT OF THE PLAINS AND HEADING THIS WAY. BEST UPPER FORCING
WILL BE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE UPPER WAVE THAT ARRIVES AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS THROUGH SO KEPT LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF BUT DROP THINGS OFF
PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

UNCERTAIN ABOUT DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM SO WILL LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FORECAST MODELS ARE KEEPING THE UPPER TROUGH FURTHER WEST THIS SET
OF RUNS AND TAKING LONGER TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK IN OVER THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE SNEAKING BACK INTO THE
FORECAST WITH WEAK UPPER WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN TROUGH AND A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING DOWN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THESE CHANCES WILL BE SMALL AND ONLY
LOOKING AT LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG SYSTEM. WITH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE IN BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THEN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AIR AND CLOUD COVER. LOWS SHOULD STAY NEAR
NORMAL WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A FEW REMNANT OR LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR TO REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA (MOSTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES) IN THE WAKE
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO BE FOLLOWED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH. VERY WEAK/LIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN
MORE ANEMIC CHANCES BY THURSDAY. THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM PROJECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA APPEARS TO
BE TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OMITTED FROM THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS ADDED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
UPDATES ESPECIALLY IF THE INSTABILITY LOOKS DECENT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

RAPID REFRESH CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND PROPAGATING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. RADAR SHOWS
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW HAVE USED VCTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR WINDOW OF LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES ON NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY
ALONG WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE REACHABLE MID TO UPPER 50S SUGGESTS
AFTERNOON SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AND LINGERING
MVFR CIGS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 012320
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
720 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. AFTER THAT UPPER WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH AN EASTERN U.S.
UPPER TROUGH BRINGING SOME LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA
OFF AND ON UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THAT POINT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SWING SOUTH AND BRING BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOW SHOWER CHANCES IN IT/S WAKE. DRY
WEATHER BUILDS IN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO END THE WEEK AND BEGIN THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 646 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO GRIDS...BUT MAJORITY REMAIN IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.
WATCHING DEVELOPMENT OVER ILLINOIS AS UPPER WAVE OVER WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS PUSHES EAST/NORTHEAST. MAY SEE SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP
INTO CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

AT 3 PM SEEING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND KENTUCKY. COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
PRETTY MUCH ANYTIME NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND HRRR
SHOWS THE CURRENT ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTH AND INTO THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST AROUND 0Z AND OVERSPREADING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FROM THERE. UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH THIS AREA
WILL GET SO KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS WITH THE FRONTAL PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTH. NOT READY TO CALL OFF SEVERE STORM CHANCES WITH CAPES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA OVER 1000 AND AN UPPER JETLET ON
ITS WAY OUT OF THE PLAINS AND HEADING THIS WAY. BEST UPPER FORCING
WILL BE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE UPPER WAVE THAT ARRIVES AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS THROUGH SO KEPT LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF BUT DROP THINGS OFF
PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

UNCERTAIN ABOUT DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM SO WILL LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FORECAST MODELS ARE KEEPING THE UPPER TROUGH FURTHER WEST THIS SET
OF RUNS AND TAKING LONGER TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK IN OVER THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE SNEAKING BACK INTO THE
FORECAST WITH WEAK UPPER WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN TROUGH AND A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING DOWN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THESE CHANCES WILL BE SMALL AND ONLY
LOOKING AT LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG SYSTEM. WITH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE IN BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THEN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AIR AND CLOUD COVER. LOWS SHOULD STAY NEAR
NORMAL WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A FEW REMNANT OR LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR TO REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA (MOSTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES) IN THE WAKE
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO BE FOLLOWED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH. VERY WEAK/LIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN
MORE ANEMIC CHANCES BY THURSDAY. THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM PROJECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA APPEARS TO
BE TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OMITTED FROM THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS ADDED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
UPDATES ESPECIALLY IF THE INSTABILITY LOOKS DECENT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

RAPID REFRESH CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND PROPAGATING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. RADAR SHOWS
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW HAVE USED VCTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR WINDOW OF LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES ON NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY
ALONG WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE REACHABLE MID TO UPPER 50S SUGGESTS
AFTERNOON SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AND LINGERING
MVFR CIGS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 012320
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
720 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. AFTER THAT UPPER WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH AN EASTERN U.S.
UPPER TROUGH BRINGING SOME LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA
OFF AND ON UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THAT POINT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SWING SOUTH AND BRING BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOW SHOWER CHANCES IN IT/S WAKE. DRY
WEATHER BUILDS IN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO END THE WEEK AND BEGIN THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 646 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO GRIDS...BUT MAJORITY REMAIN IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.
WATCHING DEVELOPMENT OVER ILLINOIS AS UPPER WAVE OVER WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS PUSHES EAST/NORTHEAST. MAY SEE SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP
INTO CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

AT 3 PM SEEING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND KENTUCKY. COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
PRETTY MUCH ANYTIME NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND HRRR
SHOWS THE CURRENT ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTH AND INTO THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST AROUND 0Z AND OVERSPREADING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FROM THERE. UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH THIS AREA
WILL GET SO KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS WITH THE FRONTAL PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTH. NOT READY TO CALL OFF SEVERE STORM CHANCES WITH CAPES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA OVER 1000 AND AN UPPER JETLET ON
ITS WAY OUT OF THE PLAINS AND HEADING THIS WAY. BEST UPPER FORCING
WILL BE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE UPPER WAVE THAT ARRIVES AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS THROUGH SO KEPT LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF BUT DROP THINGS OFF
PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

UNCERTAIN ABOUT DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM SO WILL LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FORECAST MODELS ARE KEEPING THE UPPER TROUGH FURTHER WEST THIS SET
OF RUNS AND TAKING LONGER TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK IN OVER THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE SNEAKING BACK INTO THE
FORECAST WITH WEAK UPPER WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN TROUGH AND A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING DOWN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THESE CHANCES WILL BE SMALL AND ONLY
LOOKING AT LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG SYSTEM. WITH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE IN BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THEN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AIR AND CLOUD COVER. LOWS SHOULD STAY NEAR
NORMAL WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A FEW REMNANT OR LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR TO REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA (MOSTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES) IN THE WAKE
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO BE FOLLOWED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH. VERY WEAK/LIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN
MORE ANEMIC CHANCES BY THURSDAY. THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM PROJECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA APPEARS TO
BE TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OMITTED FROM THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS ADDED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
UPDATES ESPECIALLY IF THE INSTABILITY LOOKS DECENT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

RAPID REFRESH CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND PROPAGATING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. RADAR SHOWS
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW HAVE USED VCTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR WINDOW OF LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES ON NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY
ALONG WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE REACHABLE MID TO UPPER 50S SUGGESTS
AFTERNOON SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AND LINGERING
MVFR CIGS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 012246
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
646 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. AFTER THAT UPPER WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH AN EASTERN U.S.
UPPER TROUGH BRINGING SOME LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA
OFF AND ON UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THAT POINT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SWING SOUTH AND BRING BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOW SHOWER CHANCES IN IT/S WAKE. DRY
WEATHER BUILDS IN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO END THE WEEK AND BEGIN THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 646 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO GRIDS...BUT MAJORITY REMAIN IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.
WATCHING DEVELOPMENT OVER ILLINOIS AS UPPER WAVE OVER WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS PUSHES EAST/NORTHEAST. MAY SEE SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP
INTO CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

AT 3 PM SEEING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND KENTUCKY. COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
PRETTY MUCH ANYTIME NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND HRRR
SHOWS THE CURRENT ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTH AND INTO THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST AROUND 0Z AND OVERSPREADING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FROM THERE. UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH THIS AREA
WILL GET SO KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS WITH THE FRONTAL PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTH. NOT READY TO CALL OFF SEVERE STORM CHANCES WITH CAPES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA OVER 1000 AND AN UPPER JETLET ON
ITS WAY OUT OF THE PLAINS AND HEADING THIS WAY. BEST UPPER FORCING
WILL BE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE UPPER WAVE THAT ARRIVES AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS THROUGH SO KEPT LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF BUT DROP THINGS OFF
PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

UNCERTAIN ABOUT DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM SO WILL LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FORECAST MODELS ARE KEEPING THE UPPER TROUGH FURTHER WEST THIS SET
OF RUNS AND TAKING LONGER TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK IN OVER THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE SNEAKING BACK INTO THE
FORECAST WITH WEAK UPPER WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN TROUGH AND A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING DOWN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THESE CHANCES WILL BE SMALL AND ONLY
LOOKING AT LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG SYSTEM. WITH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE IN BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THEN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AIR AND CLOUD COVER. LOWS SHOULD STAY NEAR
NORMAL WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A FEW REMNANT OR LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR TO REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA (MOSTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES) IN THE WAKE
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO BE FOLLOWED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH. VERY WEAK/LIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN
MORE ANEMIC CHANCES BY THURSDAY. THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM PROJECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA APPEARS TO
BE TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OMITTED FROM THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS ADDED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
UPDATES ESPECIALLY IF THE INSTABILITY LOOKS DECENT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 012100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES. RAPID REFRESH SEEMS
OVERDONE THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN THE RECENT RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN
THIS...HAVE PUSHED BACK ONSET OF POSSIBLE VCTS A FEW HOURS AND
WILL TREND TO FOCUSING BETTER PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DELAYING TIMING FOR START OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY BY
2-4 HOURS. THIS WAS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE. EVEN THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD MENTIONED IN
THE TAFS WAS SIGNIFICANTLY NARROWED DOWN TO 21/23Z TO 01/02Z THIS
EVENING...KEPT VCTS AND CB GROUPS ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. CERTAINLY ANY ONE THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACTS
A TERMINAL WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE WINDS DRAMATICALLY
AND DROP CONDITIONS TO IFR OR LOWER HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
WILL NOT COMING UNTIL THERE IS MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON THE RADAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

LATER THIS EVENING POST STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECT A
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EARLY TONIGHT. THEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MON 09Z IF NOT
EARLIER. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10
KTS. VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG MAY HANG ON OVER THE AREA INTO AT
LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 012042
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
442 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. AFTER THAT UPPER WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH AN EASTERN U.S.
UPPER TROUGH BRINGING SOME LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA
OFF AND ON UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THAT POINT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SWING SOUTH AND BRING BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOW SHOWER CHANCES IN IT/S WAKE. DRY
WEATHER BUILDS IN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO END THE WEEK AND BEGIN THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

AT 3 PM SEEING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND KENTUCKY. COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
PRETTY MUCH ANYTIME NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND HRRR
SHOWS THE CURRENT ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTH AND INTO THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST AROUND 0Z AND OVERSPREADING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FROM THERE. UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH THIS AREA
WILL GET SO KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS WITH THE FRONTAL PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTH. NOT READY TO CALL OFF SEVERE STORM CHANCES WITH CAPES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA OVER 1000 AND AN UPPER JETLET ON
ITS WAY OUT OF THE PLAINS AND HEADING THIS WAY. BEST UPPER FORCING
WILL BE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE UPPER WAVE THAT ARRIVES AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS THROUGH SO KEPT LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF BUT DROP THINGS OFF
PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

UNCERTAIN ABOUT DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM SO WILL LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FORECAST MODELS ARE KEEPING THE UPPER TROUGH FURTHER WEST THIS SET
OF RUNS AND TAKING LONGER TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK IN OVER THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE SNEAKING BACK INTO THE
FORECAST WITH WEAK UPPER WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN TROUGH AND A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING DOWN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THESE CHANCES WILL BE SMALL AND ONLY
LOOKING AT LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG SYSTEM. WITH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE IN BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THEN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AIR AND CLOUD COVER. LOWS SHOULD STAY NEAR
NORMAL WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A FEW REMNANT OR LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR TO REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA (MOSTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES) IN THE WAKE
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO BE FOLLOWED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH. VERY WEAK/LIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN
MORE ANEMIC CHANCES BY THURSDAY. THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM PROJECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA APPEARS TO
BE TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OMITTED FROM THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS ADDED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
UPDATES ESPECIALLY IF THE INSTABILITY LOOKS DECENT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 012100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES. RAPID REFRESH SEEMS
OVERDONE THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN THE RECENT RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN
THIS...HAVE PUSHED BACK ONSET OF POSSIBLE VCTS A FEW HOURS AND
WILL TREND TO FOCUSING BETTER PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DELAYING TIMING FOR START OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY BY
2-4 HOURS. THIS WAS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE. EVEN THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD MENTIONED IN
THE TAFS WAS SIGNIFICANTLY NARROWED DOWN TO 21/23Z TO 01/02Z THIS
EVENING...KEPT VCTS AND CB GROUPS ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. CERTAINLY ANY ONE THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACTS
A TERMINAL WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE WINDS DRAMATICALLY
AND DROP CONDITIONS TO IFR OR LOWER HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
WILL NOT COMING UNTIL THERE IS MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON THE RADAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

LATER THIS EVENING POST STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECT A
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EARLY TONIGHT. THEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MON 09Z IF NOT
EARLIER. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10
KTS. VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG MAY HANG ON OVER THE AREA INTO AT
LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JP





000
FXUS63 KIND 011940
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
340 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. AFTER THAT UPPER WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH AN EASTERN U.S.
UPPER TROUGH BRINGING SOME LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA
OFF AND ON UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THAT POINT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SWING SOUTH AND BRING BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOW SHOWER CHANCES IN IT/S WAKE. DRY
WEATHER BUILDS IN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO END THE WEEK AND BEGIN THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

AT 3 PM SEEING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND KENTUCKY. COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
PRETTY MUCH ANYTIME NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND HRRR
SHOWS THE CURRENT ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTH AND INTO THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST AROUND 0Z AND OVERSPREADING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FROM THERE. UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH THIS AREA
WILL GET SO KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS WITH THE FRONTAL PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTH. NOT READY TO CALL OFF SEVERE STORM CHANCES WITH CAPES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA OVER 1000 AND AN UPPER JETLET ON
ITS WAY OUT OF THE PLAINS AND HEADING THIS WAY. BEST UPPER FORCING
WILL BE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE UPPER WAVE THAT ARRIVES AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS THROUGH SO KEPT LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF BUT DROP THINGS OFF
PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

UNCERTAIN ABOUT DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM SO WILL LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FORECAST MODELS ARE KEEPING THE UPPER TROUGH FURTHER WEST THIS SET
OF RUNS AND TAKING LONGER TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK IN OVER THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE SNEAKING BACK INTO THE
FORECAST WITH WEAK UPPER WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN TROUGH AND A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING DOWN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THESE CHANCES WILL BE SMALL AND ONLY
LOOKING AT LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG SYSTEM. WITH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE IN BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THEN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AIR AND CLOUD COVER. LOWS SHOULD STAY NEAR
NORMAL WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A FEW REMNANT OR LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR TO REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA (MOSTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES) IN THE WAKE
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO BE FOLLOWED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH. VERY WEAK/LIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN
MORE ANEMIC CHANCES BY THURSDAY. THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM PROJECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA APPEARS TO
BE TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OMITTED FROM THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS ADDED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
UPDATES ESPECIALLY IF THE INSTABILITY LOOKS DECENT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DELAYING TIMING FOR START OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY BY
2-4 HOURS. THIS WAS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE. EVEN THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD MENTIONED IN
THE TAFS WAS SIGNIFICANTLY NARROWED DOWN TO 21/23Z TO 01/02Z THIS
EVENING...KEPT VCTS AND CB GROUPS ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. CERTAINLY ANY ONE THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACTS
A TERMINAL WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE WINDS DRAMATICALLY
AND DROP CONDITIONS TO IFR OR LOWER HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
WILL NOT COMING UNTIL THERE IS MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON THE RADAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

LATER THIS EVENING POST STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECT A
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EARLY TONIGHT. THEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MON 09Z IF NOT
EARLIER. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10
KTS. VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG MAY HANG ON OVER THE AREA INTO AT
LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF





000
FXUS63 KIND 011832
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
232 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY HOWEVER A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS HINT THAT AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY A DEEPENING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT STRETCHING APPROXIMATELY FROM TERRE
HAUTE TO MUNCIE. STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUE TO HOLD IN
NORTH OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES HAVE RISEN QUITE A BIT IN
MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE LAST HOUR AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE.
WITH THE SUNNY SKIES INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH INTO THE MID 70S.

REMOVED SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE MORNING AND BROUGHT
CHANCES IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE INCREASED SUNSHINE AND MORE
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE INCREASED THUNDER WORDING TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WITH THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND A JET MAX FORECAST TO ROLL INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS AROUND
0Z. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME HI RES MODELS...WHICH ARE CAPTURING THE
INCREASED SUNSHINE AND TEMPS...ARE NOT DEVELOPING MUCH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON EXCEPT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AND INSTEAD ARE HOLDING OFF
DEVELOPMENT FOR CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL AROUND 22-1Z. WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY PREFER TO LEAVE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES. NOT SURE ABOUT
THE LIKELIES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST STARTING 22Z BUT WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY AND INSTABILITY WOULD PREFER TO LEAVE THEM ALONE AT THIS
TIME.

TONIGHT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS EVENING AND HIGH
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.  THEN SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...LOWERED HIGHS A LITTLE FAR NORTHWEST AS
COLD FRONT AND LOTS OF STRATUS TO THE NORTH MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES THERE.
OTHERWISE...WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES OTHER AREAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.   HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTHWEST TO MIDDLE
70S SOUTH.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY...AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WETTER THEN.  YESTERDAY MODELS INDICATED COLD FRONT WOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST AND HIGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SHOULD KEEP US DRY.   MODELS TODAY INDICATE FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE CLOSER
AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WOULD ONLY BE A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AND BOTH GUIDANCE POPS SEEM A BIT TOO HIGH.
NEVERTHELESS WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD IN BY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG ON
TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR SOUTH INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE...DRY
WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH AS AN
UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S MONDAY AND THE 60S TUESDAY...
WHILE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A FEW REMNANT OR LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR TO REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA (MOSTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES) IN THE WAKE
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO BE FOLLOWED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH. VERY WEAK/LIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN
MORE ANEMIC CHANCES BY THURSDAY. THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM PROJECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA APPEARS TO
BE TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OMITTED FROM THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS ADDED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
UPDATES ESPECIALLY IF THE INSTABILITY LOOKS DECENT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DELAYING TIMING FOR START OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY BY
2-4 HOURS. THIS WAS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE. EVEN THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD MENTIONED IN
THE TAFS WAS SIGNIFICANTLY NARROWED DOWN TO 21/23Z TO 01/02Z THIS
EVENING...KEPT VCTS AND CB GROUPS ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. CERTAINLY ANY ONE THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACTS
A TERMINAL WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE WINDS DRAMATICALLY
AND DROP CONDITIONS TO IFR OR LOWER HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
WILL NOT COMING UNTIL THERE IS MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON THE RADAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

LATER THIS EVENING POST STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECT A
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EARLY TONIGHT. THEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MON 09Z IF NOT
EARLIER. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10
KTS. VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG MAY HANG ON OVER THE AREA INTO AT
LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/CP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF





000
FXUS63 KIND 011832
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
232 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY HOWEVER A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS HINT THAT AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY A DEEPENING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT STRETCHING APPROXIMATELY FROM TERRE
HAUTE TO MUNCIE. STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUE TO HOLD IN
NORTH OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES HAVE RISEN QUITE A BIT IN
MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE LAST HOUR AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE.
WITH THE SUNNY SKIES INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH INTO THE MID 70S.

REMOVED SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE MORNING AND BROUGHT
CHANCES IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE INCREASED SUNSHINE AND MORE
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE INCREASED THUNDER WORDING TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WITH THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND A JET MAX FORECAST TO ROLL INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS AROUND
0Z. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME HI RES MODELS...WHICH ARE CAPTURING THE
INCREASED SUNSHINE AND TEMPS...ARE NOT DEVELOPING MUCH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON EXCEPT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AND INSTEAD ARE HOLDING OFF
DEVELOPMENT FOR CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL AROUND 22-1Z. WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY PREFER TO LEAVE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES. NOT SURE ABOUT
THE LIKELIES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST STARTING 22Z BUT WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY AND INSTABILITY WOULD PREFER TO LEAVE THEM ALONE AT THIS
TIME.

TONIGHT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS EVENING AND HIGH
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.  THEN SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...LOWERED HIGHS A LITTLE FAR NORTHWEST AS
COLD FRONT AND LOTS OF STRATUS TO THE NORTH MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES THERE.
OTHERWISE...WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES OTHER AREAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.   HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTHWEST TO MIDDLE
70S SOUTH.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY...AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WETTER THEN.  YESTERDAY MODELS INDICATED COLD FRONT WOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST AND HIGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SHOULD KEEP US DRY.   MODELS TODAY INDICATE FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE CLOSER
AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WOULD ONLY BE A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AND BOTH GUIDANCE POPS SEEM A BIT TOO HIGH.
NEVERTHELESS WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD IN BY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG ON
TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR SOUTH INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE...DRY
WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH AS AN
UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S MONDAY AND THE 60S TUESDAY...
WHILE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A FEW REMNANT OR LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR TO REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA (MOSTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES) IN THE WAKE
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO BE FOLLOWED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH. VERY WEAK/LIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN
MORE ANEMIC CHANCES BY THURSDAY. THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM PROJECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA APPEARS TO
BE TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OMITTED FROM THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS ADDED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
UPDATES ESPECIALLY IF THE INSTABILITY LOOKS DECENT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DELAYING TIMING FOR START OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY BY
2-4 HOURS. THIS WAS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE. EVEN THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD MENTIONED IN
THE TAFS WAS SIGNIFICANTLY NARROWED DOWN TO 21/23Z TO 01/02Z THIS
EVENING...KEPT VCTS AND CB GROUPS ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. CERTAINLY ANY ONE THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACTS
A TERMINAL WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE WINDS DRAMATICALLY
AND DROP CONDITIONS TO IFR OR LOWER HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
WILL NOT COMING UNTIL THERE IS MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON THE RADAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

LATER THIS EVENING POST STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECT A
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EARLY TONIGHT. THEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MON 09Z IF NOT
EARLIER. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10
KTS. VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG MAY HANG ON OVER THE AREA INTO AT
LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/CP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF





000
FXUS63 KIND 011725
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
125 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY HOWEVER A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS HINT THAT AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY A DEEPENING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT STRETCHING APPROXIMATELY FROM TERRE
HAUTE TO MUNCIE. STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUE TO HOLD IN
NORTH OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES HAVE RISEN QUITE A BIT IN
MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE LAST HOUR AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE.
WITH THE SUNNY SKIES INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH INTO THE MID 70S.

REMOVED SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE MORNING AND BROUGHT
CHANCES IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE INCREASED SUNSHINE AND MORE
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE INCREASED THUNDER WORDING TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WITH THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND A JET MAX FORECAST TO ROLL INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS AROUND
0Z. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME HI RES MODELS...WHICH ARE CAPTURING THE
INCREASED SUNSHINE AND TEMPS...ARE NOT DEVELOPING MUCH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON EXCEPT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AND INSTEAD ARE HOLDING OFF
DEVELOPMENT FOR CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL AROUND 22-1Z. WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY PREFER TO LEAVE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES. NOT SURE ABOUT
THE LIKELIES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST STARTING 22Z BUT WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY AND INSTABILITY WOULD PREFER TO LEAVE THEM ALONE AT THIS
TIME.

TONIGHT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS EVENING AND HIGH
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.  THEN SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...LOWERED HIGHS A LITTLE FAR NORTHWEST AS
COLD FRONT AND LOTS OF STRATUS TO THE NORTH MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES THERE.
OTHERWISE...WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES OTHER AREAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.   HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTHWEST TO MIDDLE
70S SOUTH.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY...AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WETTER THEN.  YESTERDAY MODELS INDICATED COLD FRONT WOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST AND HIGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SHOULD KEEP US DRY.   MODELS TODAY INDICATE FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE CLOSER
AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WOULD ONLY BE A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AND BOTH GUIDANCE POPS SEEM A BIT TOO HIGH.
NEVERTHELESS WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD IN BY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG ON
TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR SOUTH INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE...DRY
WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH AS AN
UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S MONDAY AND THE 60S TUESDAY...
WHILE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT A LACK OF INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.  AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DELMARVA AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...RAIN CHANCES
WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
AND LOWS IN THE 40S.  A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE LATE IN THE
PERIOD THOUGH AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DELAYING TIMING FOR START OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY BY
2-4 HOURS. THIS WAS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE. EVEN THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD MENTIONED IN
THE TAFS WAS SIGNIFICANTLY NARROWED DOWN TO 21/23Z TO 01/02Z THIS
EVENING...KEPT VCTS AND CB GROUPS ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. CERTAINLY ANY ONE THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACTS
A TERMINAL WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE WINDS DRAMATICALLY
AND DROP CONDITIONS TO IFR OR LOWER HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
WILL NOT COMING UNTIL THERE IS MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON THE RADAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

LATER THIS EVENING POST STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECT A
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EARLY TONIGHT. THEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MON 09Z IF NOT
EARLIER. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10
KTS. VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG MAY HANG ON OVER THE AREA INTO AT
LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/CP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...SMF





000
FXUS63 KIND 011434
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1034 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY HOWEVER A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS HINT THAT AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY A DEEPENING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT STRETCHING APPROXIMATELY FROM TERRE
HAUTE TO MUNCIE. STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUE TO HOLD IN
NORTH OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES HAVE RISEN QUITE A BIT IN
MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE LAST HOUR AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE.
WITH THE SUNNY SKIES INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH INTO THE MID 70S.

REMOVED SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE MORNING AND BROUGHT
CHANCES IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE INCREASED SUNSHINE AND MORE
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE INCREASED THUNDER WORDING TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WITH THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND A JET MAX FORECAST TO ROLL INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS AROUND
0Z. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME HI RES MODELS...WHICH ARE CAPTURING THE
INCREASED SUNSHINE AND TEMPS...ARE NOT DEVELOPING MUCH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON EXCEPT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AND INSTEAD ARE HOLDING OFF
DEVELOPMENT FOR CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL AROUND 22-1Z. WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY PREFER TO LEAVE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES. NOT SURE ABOUT
THE LIKELIES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST STARTING 22Z BUT WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY AND INSTABILITY WOULD PREFER TO LEAVE THEM ALONE AT THIS
TIME.

TONIGHT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS EVENING AND HIGH
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.  THEN SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...LOWERED HIGHS A LITTLE FAR NORTHWEST AS
COLD FRONT AND LOTS OF STRATUS TO THE NORTH MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES THERE.
OTHERWISE...WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES OTHER AREAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.   HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTHWEST TO MIDDLE
70S SOUTH.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY...AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WETTER THEN.  YESTERDAY MODELS INDICATED COLD FRONT WOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST AND HIGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SHOULD KEEP US DRY.   MODELS TODAY INDICATE FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE CLOSER
AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WOULD ONLY BE A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AND BOTH GUIDANCE POPS SEEM A BIT TOO HIGH.
NEVERTHELESS WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD IN BY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG ON
TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR SOUTH INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE...DRY
WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH AS AN
UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S MONDAY AND THE 60S TUESDAY...
WHILE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT A LACK OF INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.  AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DELMARVA AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...RAIN CHANCES
WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
AND LOWS IN THE 40S.  A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE LATE IN THE
PERIOD THOUGH AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1031 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

1430Z UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE JUST EARLIER WAS TO KEEP KLAF DOWN IN
IFR OR LOWER FOG FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SHOULD MIX OUT
QUICKLY AND ABRUPTLY WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS AND THIS WAS
REFLECTED IN THE UPDATED TAFS. OTHER THE OTHER SITES ARE ALL
CURRENTLY VFR AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING AT KLAF
WITH VLIFR CATEGORY...EXPECT MODERATE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AFTER
SUN 15Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AS A LULL IN
ACTIVITY CONTINUES. WEATHER COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE AFTER SUN 18Z
THOUGH AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA...SO WILL CARRY
MENTION OF VCTS AND MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION OVERNIGHT.
AS A RESULT...IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MON 09Z.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/CP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...SMF/TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 011431
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY HOWEVER A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS HINT THAT AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY A DEEPENING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT STRETCHING APPROXIMATELY FROM TERRE
HAUTE TO MUNCIE. STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUE TO HOLD IN
NORTH OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES HAVE RISEN QUITE A BIT IN
MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE LAST HOUR AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE.
WITH THE SUNNY SKIES INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH INTO THE MID 70S.

REMOVED SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE MORNING AND BROUGHT
CHANCES IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE INCREASED SUNSHINE AND MORE
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE INCREASED THUNDER WORDING TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WITH THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND A JET MAX FORECAST TO ROLL INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS AROUND
0Z. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME HI RES MODELS...WHICH ARE CAPTURING THE
INCREASED SUNSHINE AND TEMPS...ARE NOT DEVELOPING MUCH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON EXCEPT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AND INSTEAD ARE HOLDING OFF
DEVELOPMENT FOR CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL AROUND 22-1Z. WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY PREFER TO LEAVE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES. NOT SURE ABOUT
THE LIKELIES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST STARTING 22Z BUT WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY AND INSTABILITY WOULD PREFER TO LEAVE THEM ALONE AT THIS
TIME.

TONIGHT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS EVENING AND HIGH
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.  THEN SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...LOWERED HIGHS A LITTLE FAR NORTHWEST AS
COLD FRONT AND LOTS OF STRATUS TO THE NORTH MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES THERE.
OTHERWISE...WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES OTHER AREAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.   HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTHWEST TO MIDDLE
70S SOUTH.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY...AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WETTER THEN.  YESTERDAY MODELS INDICATED COLD FRONT WOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST AND HIGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SHOULD KEEP US DRY.   MODELS TODAY INDICATE FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE CLOSER
AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WOULD ONLY BE A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AND BOTH GUIDANCE POPS SEEM A BIT TOO HIGH.
NEVERTHELESS WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD IN BY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG ON
TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR SOUTH INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE...DRY
WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH AS AN
UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S MONDAY AND THE 60S TUESDAY...
WHILE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT A LACK OF INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.  AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DELMARVA AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...RAIN CHANCES
WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
AND LOWS IN THE 40S.  A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE LATE IN THE
PERIOD THOUGH AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING AT KLAF
WITH VLIFR CATEGORY...EXPECT MODERATE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AFTER
SUN 15Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AS A LULL IN
ACTIVITY CONTINUES. WEATHER COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE AFTER SUN 18Z
THOUGH AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA...SO WILL CARRY
MENTION OF VCTS AND MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION OVERNIGHT.
AS A RESULT...IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MON 09Z.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/CP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 011149
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
749 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY HOWEVER A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS HINT THAT AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY A DEEPENING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.  FARTHER NORTH THE WEATHER
WAS QUIET BUT AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
INDIANA AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  RAPID REFRESH MODEL
INDICATES SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH QUITE A BIT TOWARDS DAYBREAK...BUT
PATCHY FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE SOME AREAS AROUND SUNRISE.

AFTER THAT...EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE THE RULE THIS MORNING
...BUT BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS WITH DAY TIME HEATING AND AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OUR WAY.  WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG
A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TODAY.
OTHERWISE...WILL GO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS EVENING AND HIGH
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.  THEN SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...LOWERED HIGHS A LITTLE FAR NORTHWEST AS
COLD FRONT AND LOTS OF STRATUS TO THE NORTH MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES THERE.
OTHERWISE...WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES OTHER AREAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.   HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTHWEST TO MIDDLE
70S SOUTH.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY...AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WETTER THEN.  YESTERDAY MODELS INDICATED COLD FRONT WOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST AND HIGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SHOULD KEEP US DRY.   MODELS TODAY INDICATE FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE CLOSER
AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WOULD ONLY BE A
FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH AND BOTH GUIDANCE POPS SEEM A BIT TOO HIGH.
NEVERLESS WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD IN BY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG ON
TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR SOUTH INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE...DRY
WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH AS AN
UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S MONDAY AND THE 60S TUESDAY...
WHILE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT A LACK OF INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.  AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DELMARVA AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...RAIN CHANCES
WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
AND LOWS IN THE 40S.  A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE LATE IN THE
PERIOD THOUGH AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING AT KLAF
WITH VLIFR CATEGORY...EXPECT MODERATE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AFTER
SUN 15Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AS A LULL IN
ACTIVITY CONTINUES. WEATHER COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE AFTER SUN 18Z
THOUGH AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA...SO WILL CARRY
MENTION OF VCTS AND MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION OVERNIGHT.
AS A RESULT...IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MON 09Z.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 011137
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
737 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR SAINT LOUIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY...BUT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST.  MODELS HINT THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY.  THEN DEEPENING UPPER
LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.   DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN AFTER THAT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME WARMER TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ON TO THE EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.  FARTHER NORTH THE WEATHER
WAS QUIET BUT AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
INDIANA AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  RAPID REFRESH MODEL
INDICATES SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH QUITE A BIT TOWARDS DAYBREAK...BUT
PATCHY FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE SOME AREAS AROUND SUNRISE.

AFTER THAT...EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE THE RULE THIS MORNING
...BUT BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS WITH DAY TIME HEATING AND AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OUR WAY.  WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG
A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TODAY.
OTHERWISE...WILL GO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS EVENING AND HIGH
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.  THEN SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...LOWERED HIGHS A LITTLE FAR NORTHWEST AS
COLD FRONT AND LOTS OF STRATUS TO THE NORTH MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES THERE.
OTHERWISE...WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES OTHER AREAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.   HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTHWEST TO MIDDLE
70S SOUTH.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY...AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WETTER THEN.  YESTERDAY MODELS INDICATED COLD FRONT WOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST AND HIGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SHOULD KEEP US DRY.   MODELS TODAY INDICATE FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE CLOSER
AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WOULD ONLY BE A
FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH AND BOTH GUIDANCE POPS SEEM A BIT TOO HIGH.
NEVERLESS WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD IN BY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG ON
TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR SOUTH INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE...DRY
WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH AS AN
UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S MONDAY AND THE 60S TUESDAY...
WHILE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT A LACK OF INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.  AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DELMARVA AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...RAIN CHANCES
WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
AND LOWS IN THE 40S.  A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE LATE IN THE
PERIOD THOUGH AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING AT KLAF
WITH VLIFR CATEGORY...EXPECT MODERATE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AFTER
SUN 15Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AS A LULL IN
ACTIVITY CONTINUES. WEATHER COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE AFTER SUN 18Z
THOUGH AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA...SO WILL CARRY
MENTION OF VCTS AND MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION OVERNIGHT.
AS A RESULT...IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MON 09Z.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD





000
FXUS63 KIND 011137
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
737 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR SAINT LOUIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY...BUT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST.  MODELS HINT THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY.  THEN DEEPENING UPPER
LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.   DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN AFTER THAT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME WARMER TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ON TO THE EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.  FARTHER NORTH THE WEATHER
WAS QUIET BUT AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
INDIANA AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  RAPID REFRESH MODEL
INDICATES SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH QUITE A BIT TOWARDS DAYBREAK...BUT
PATCHY FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE SOME AREAS AROUND SUNRISE.

AFTER THAT...EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE THE RULE THIS MORNING
...BUT BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS WITH DAY TIME HEATING AND AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OUR WAY.  WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG
A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TODAY.
OTHERWISE...WILL GO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS EVENING AND HIGH
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.  THEN SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...LOWERED HIGHS A LITTLE FAR NORTHWEST AS
COLD FRONT AND LOTS OF STRATUS TO THE NORTH MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES THERE.
OTHERWISE...WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES OTHER AREAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.   HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTHWEST TO MIDDLE
70S SOUTH.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY...AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WETTER THEN.  YESTERDAY MODELS INDICATED COLD FRONT WOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST AND HIGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SHOULD KEEP US DRY.   MODELS TODAY INDICATE FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE CLOSER
AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WOULD ONLY BE A
FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH AND BOTH GUIDANCE POPS SEEM A BIT TOO HIGH.
NEVERLESS WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD IN BY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG ON
TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR SOUTH INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE...DRY
WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH AS AN
UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S MONDAY AND THE 60S TUESDAY...
WHILE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT A LACK OF INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.  AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DELMARVA AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...RAIN CHANCES
WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
AND LOWS IN THE 40S.  A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE LATE IN THE
PERIOD THOUGH AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING AT KLAF
WITH VLIFR CATEGORY...EXPECT MODERATE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AFTER
SUN 15Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AS A LULL IN
ACTIVITY CONTINUES. WEATHER COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE AFTER SUN 18Z
THOUGH AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA...SO WILL CARRY
MENTION OF VCTS AND MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION OVERNIGHT.
AS A RESULT...IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MON 09Z.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD





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