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000
FXUS63 KIND 291414
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1014 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER JAMES BAY WILL IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE HIGHS
IN THE WEST ABOUT 2 DEGREES.  THIS WAS BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND PUTS THEM A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE MAV GUIDANCE.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION
OF DIURNAL EFFECTS AND THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER
FLOW. CONSIDERING THE PATH OF THE SHORT WAVE...THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.
WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS ONLY SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST WITH NO
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

ALL MODELS KEEP A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CANADA FOR THE DURATION OF SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW...ENHANCING ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
EACH DAY. THE NIGHTS WILL BE DRY THOUGH WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. AT THIS TIME...NO POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE
ARE NECESSARY DURING ANY GIVEN PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY THURSDAY.
LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS WAS CAPTURED
WELL WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGH AND RESULTANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN LONG
TERM FOCUS.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO START TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
THE 00Z GFS AND GEM BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SWING IT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AND ALSO
RETAINS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...JUST IN...THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS PUSHING THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK PER
THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS. SO...WILL GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY WITH WARMER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A BELOW NORMAL
END TO JULY AND START TO AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO MORNING FORECAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE IN VFR CU DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT DROPS INTO THE REGION. CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AT KIND AND KLAF AFTER
18-19Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH NO MENTION FOR THE TERMINALS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN COVERAGE.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WEAK UPPER WAVES IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL BRING SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CU TO THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. IN ADDITION...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM AT IND
OR LAF AFTER 16Z...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME NEAR 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
LIGHT TO CALM AFTER 01Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 291414
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1014 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER JAMES BAY WILL IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE HIGHS
IN THE WEST ABOUT 2 DEGREES.  THIS WAS BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND PUTS THEM A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE MAV GUIDANCE.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION
OF DIURNAL EFFECTS AND THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER
FLOW. CONSIDERING THE PATH OF THE SHORT WAVE...THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.
WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS ONLY SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST WITH NO
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

ALL MODELS KEEP A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CANADA FOR THE DURATION OF SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW...ENHANCING ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
EACH DAY. THE NIGHTS WILL BE DRY THOUGH WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. AT THIS TIME...NO POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE
ARE NECESSARY DURING ANY GIVEN PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY THURSDAY.
LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS WAS CAPTURED
WELL WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGH AND RESULTANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN LONG
TERM FOCUS.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO START TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
THE 00Z GFS AND GEM BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SWING IT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AND ALSO
RETAINS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...JUST IN...THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS PUSHING THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK PER
THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS. SO...WILL GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY WITH WARMER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A BELOW NORMAL
END TO JULY AND START TO AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO MORNING FORECAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE IN VFR CU DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT DROPS INTO THE REGION. CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AT KIND AND KLAF AFTER
18-19Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH NO MENTION FOR THE TERMINALS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN COVERAGE.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WEAK UPPER WAVES IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL BRING SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CU TO THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. IN ADDITION...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM AT IND
OR LAF AFTER 16Z...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME NEAR 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
LIGHT TO CALM AFTER 01Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 291354
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
954 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER JAMES BAY WILL IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE HIGHS
IN THE WEST ABOUT 2 DEGREES.  THIS WAS BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND PUTS THEM A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE MAV GUIDANCE.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION
OF DIURNAL EFFECTS AND THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER
FLOW. CONSIDERING THE PATH OF THE SHORT WAVE...THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.
WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS ONLY SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST WITH NO
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

ALL MODELS KEEP A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CANADA FOR THE DURATION OF SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW...ENHANCING ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
EACH DAY. THE NIGHTS WILL BE DRY THOUGH WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. AT THIS TIME...NO POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE
ARE NECESSARY DURING ANY GIVEN PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY THURSDAY.
LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS WAS CAPTURED
WELL WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGH AND RESULTANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN LONG
TERM FOCUS.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO START TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
THE 00Z GFS AND GEM BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SWING IT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AND ALSO
RETAINS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...JUST IN...THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS PUSHING THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK PER
THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS. SO...WILL GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY WITH WARMER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A BELOW NORMAL
END TO JULY AND START TO AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 605 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVES IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL BRING SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CU TO THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. IN ADDITION...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM AT IND
OR LAF AFTER 16Z...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME NEAR 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
LIGHT TO CALM AFTER 01Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 291354
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
954 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER JAMES BAY WILL IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE HIGHS
IN THE WEST ABOUT 2 DEGREES.  THIS WAS BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND PUTS THEM A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE MAV GUIDANCE.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION
OF DIURNAL EFFECTS AND THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER
FLOW. CONSIDERING THE PATH OF THE SHORT WAVE...THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.
WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS ONLY SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST WITH NO
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

ALL MODELS KEEP A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CANADA FOR THE DURATION OF SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW...ENHANCING ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
EACH DAY. THE NIGHTS WILL BE DRY THOUGH WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. AT THIS TIME...NO POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE
ARE NECESSARY DURING ANY GIVEN PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY THURSDAY.
LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS WAS CAPTURED
WELL WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGH AND RESULTANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN LONG
TERM FOCUS.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO START TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
THE 00Z GFS AND GEM BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SWING IT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AND ALSO
RETAINS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...JUST IN...THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS PUSHING THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK PER
THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS. SO...WILL GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY WITH WARMER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A BELOW NORMAL
END TO JULY AND START TO AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 605 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVES IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL BRING SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CU TO THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. IN ADDITION...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM AT IND
OR LAF AFTER 16Z...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME NEAR 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
LIGHT TO CALM AFTER 01Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 291006
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
605 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER JAMES BAY WILL IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP CHANCES /MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES/ THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
LIFT WILL BE BEST FROM A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE EXTENDING FROM IOWA INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON CENTRAL INDIANA. DUE TO THE LIMITED DYNAMICS...WILL ONLY
GO WITH SHOWERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND NO MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM WITH TODAY/S HIGHS
DUE TO THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS PUTS HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

ALL MODELS KEEP A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CANADA FOR THE DURATION OF SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW...ENHANCING ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
EACH DAY. THE NIGHTS WILL BE DRY THOUGH WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. AT THIS TIME...NO POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE
ARE NECESSARY DURING ANY GIVEN PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY THURSDAY.
LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS WAS CAPTURED
WELL WITH A MODEL BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGH AND RESULTANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN LONG
TERM FOCUS.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO START TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
THE 00Z GFS AND GEM BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SWING IT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AND ALSO
RETAINS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...JUST IN...THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS PUSHING THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK PER
THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS. SO...WILL GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY WITH WARMER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A BELOW NORMAL
END TO JULY AND START TO AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 605 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVES IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL BRING SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CU TO THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. IN ADDITION...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM AT IND
OR LAF AFTER 16Z...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME NEAR 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
LIGHT TO CALM AFTER 01Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 291006
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
605 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER JAMES BAY WILL IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP CHANCES /MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES/ THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
LIFT WILL BE BEST FROM A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE EXTENDING FROM IOWA INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON CENTRAL INDIANA. DUE TO THE LIMITED DYNAMICS...WILL ONLY
GO WITH SHOWERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND NO MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM WITH TODAY/S HIGHS
DUE TO THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS PUTS HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

ALL MODELS KEEP A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CANADA FOR THE DURATION OF SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW...ENHANCING ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
EACH DAY. THE NIGHTS WILL BE DRY THOUGH WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. AT THIS TIME...NO POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE
ARE NECESSARY DURING ANY GIVEN PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY THURSDAY.
LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS WAS CAPTURED
WELL WITH A MODEL BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGH AND RESULTANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN LONG
TERM FOCUS.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO START TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
THE 00Z GFS AND GEM BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SWING IT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AND ALSO
RETAINS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...JUST IN...THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS PUSHING THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK PER
THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS. SO...WILL GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY WITH WARMER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A BELOW NORMAL
END TO JULY AND START TO AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 605 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVES IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL BRING SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CU TO THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. IN ADDITION...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM AT IND
OR LAF AFTER 16Z...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME NEAR 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
LIGHT TO CALM AFTER 01Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS















000
FXUS63 KIND 290828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER JAMES BAY WILL IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP CHANCES /MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES/ THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
LIFT WILL BE BEST FROM A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE EXTENDING FROM IOWA INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON CENTRAL INDIANA. DUE TO THE LIMITED DYNAMICS...WILL ONLY
GO WITH SHOWERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND NO MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM WITH TODAY/S HIGHS
DUE TO THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS PUTS HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

ALL MODELS KEEP A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CANADA FOR THE DURATION OF SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW...ENHANCING ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
EACH DAY. THE NIGHTS WILL BE DRY THOUGH WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. AT THIS TIME...NO POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE
ARE NECESSARY DURING ANY GIVEN PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY THURSDAY.
LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS WAS CAPTURED
WELL WITH A MODEL BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGH AND RESULTANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN LONG
TERM FOCUS.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO START TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
THE 00Z GFS AND GEM BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SWING IT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AND ALSO
RETAINS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...JUST IN...THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS PUSHING THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK PER
THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS. SO...WILL GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY WITH WARMER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A BELOW NORMAL
END TO JULY AND START TO AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

BROUGHT IN LIGHTER NORTHWEST WINDS PER TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY ON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION
VERY LATE TONIGHT MAY BRING A LITTLE MORE STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS
OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO SEE BROKEN CLOUDS 4-5 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING ON AS DAYTIME
HEATING OCCURS.  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE KIND
AND KHUF NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT.  HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO EVEN MENTION VCTS
IN TAFS.

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. .

VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY AND LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JH/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 290828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER JAMES BAY WILL IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP CHANCES /MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES/ THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
LIFT WILL BE BEST FROM A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE EXTENDING FROM IOWA INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON CENTRAL INDIANA. DUE TO THE LIMITED DYNAMICS...WILL ONLY
GO WITH SHOWERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND NO MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM WITH TODAY/S HIGHS
DUE TO THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS PUTS HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

ALL MODELS KEEP A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CANADA FOR THE DURATION OF SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW...ENHANCING ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
EACH DAY. THE NIGHTS WILL BE DRY THOUGH WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. AT THIS TIME...NO POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE
ARE NECESSARY DURING ANY GIVEN PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY THURSDAY.
LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS WAS CAPTURED
WELL WITH A MODEL BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGH AND RESULTANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN LONG
TERM FOCUS.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO START TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
THE 00Z GFS AND GEM BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SWING IT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AND ALSO
RETAINS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...JUST IN...THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS PUSHING THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK PER
THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS. SO...WILL GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY WITH WARMER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A BELOW NORMAL
END TO JULY AND START TO AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

BROUGHT IN LIGHTER NORTHWEST WINDS PER TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY ON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION
VERY LATE TONIGHT MAY BRING A LITTLE MORE STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS
OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO SEE BROKEN CLOUDS 4-5 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING ON AS DAYTIME
HEATING OCCURS.  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE KIND
AND KHUF NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT.  HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO EVEN MENTION VCTS
IN TAFS.

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. .

VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY AND LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JH/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 290745
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
345 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER JAMES BAY WILL IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP CHANCES /MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES/ THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
LIFT WILL BE BEST FROM A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE EXTENDING FROM IOWA INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON CENTRAL INDIANA. DUE TO THE LIMITED DYNAMICS...WILL ONLY
GO WITH SHOWERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND NO MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM WITH TODAY/S HIGHS
DUE TO THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS PUTS HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

ALL MODELS KEEP A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CANADA FOR THE DURATION OF SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW...ENHANCING ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
EACH DAY. THE NIGHTS WILL BE DRY THOUGH WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. AT THIS TIME...NO POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE
ARE NECESSARY DURING ANY GIVEN PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY THURSDAY.
LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS WAS CAPTURED
WELL WITH A MODEL BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGH AND RESULTANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN LONG
TERM FOCUS.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO START TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
THE 00Z GFS AND GEM BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SWING IT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AND ALSO
RETAINS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...JUST IN...THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS PUSHING THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK PER
THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS. SO...WILL GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY WITH WARMER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A BELOW NORMAL
END TO JULY AND START TO AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY ON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION
VERY LATE TONIGHT MAY BRING A LITTLE MORE STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS
OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO SEE BROKEN CLOUDS 4-5 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING ON AS DAYTIME
HEATING OCCURS.  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE KIND
AND KHUF NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT.  HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO EVEN MENTION VCTS
IN TAFS.

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. .

VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY AND LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 290745
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
345 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER JAMES BAY WILL IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP CHANCES /MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES/ THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
LIFT WILL BE BEST FROM A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE EXTENDING FROM IOWA INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON CENTRAL INDIANA. DUE TO THE LIMITED DYNAMICS...WILL ONLY
GO WITH SHOWERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND NO MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM WITH TODAY/S HIGHS
DUE TO THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS PUTS HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

ALL MODELS KEEP A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CANADA FOR THE DURATION OF SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW...ENHANCING ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
EACH DAY. THE NIGHTS WILL BE DRY THOUGH WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. AT THIS TIME...NO POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE
ARE NECESSARY DURING ANY GIVEN PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY THURSDAY.
LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS WAS CAPTURED
WELL WITH A MODEL BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGH AND RESULTANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN LONG
TERM FOCUS.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO START TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
THE 00Z GFS AND GEM BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SWING IT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AND ALSO
RETAINS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...JUST IN...THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS PUSHING THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK PER
THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS. SO...WILL GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY WITH WARMER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A BELOW NORMAL
END TO JULY AND START TO AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY ON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION
VERY LATE TONIGHT MAY BRING A LITTLE MORE STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS
OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO SEE BROKEN CLOUDS 4-5 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING ON AS DAYTIME
HEATING OCCURS.  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE KIND
AND KHUF NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT.  HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO EVEN MENTION VCTS
IN TAFS.

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. .

VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY AND LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 290638
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
238 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER INDIANA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1012 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
SO BASED ON CURRENT TEMP TRENDS WHICH HAVE BEEN FALLING FASTER THAN
GUIDANCE EXPECTED. THUS...A RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 50 DEGREES
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

ONCE THE SUN SETS DIURNAL CU SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT
WITH RECORD LOWS...51 DEGREES FOR INDIANAPOLIS. WITH A BIT OF A
GRADIENT STILL ACROSS THE AREA THINK WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT NOT
GO CALM AND BEST SUBSIDENCE WILL STILL BE TO THE NORTH. EXPECT TO
SEE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS CLOSE
TO MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT THEY SHOULD NEED THE HELP OF AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET ANY PRECIP GOING. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT
NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. GENERALLY MODEL/GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGH AND RESULTANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN LONG
TERM FOCUS.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO START TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
THE 00Z GFS AND GEM BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SWING IT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AND ALSO
RETAINS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...JUST IN...THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS PUSHING THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK PER
THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS. SO...WILL GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY WITH WARMER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A BELOW NORMAL
END TO JULY AND START TO AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY ON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION
VERY LATE TONIGHT MAY BRING A LITTLE MORE STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS
OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO SEE BROKEN CLOUDS 4-5 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING ON AS DAYTIME
HEATING OCCURS.  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE KIND
AND KHUF NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT.  HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO EVEN MENTION VCTS
IN TAFS.

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. .

VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY AND LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...MRD/CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 290432
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER INDIANA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1012 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
SO BASED ON CURRENT TEMP TRENDS WHICH HAVE BEEN FALLING FASTER THAN
GUIDANCE EXPECTED. THUS...A RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 50 DEGREES
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

ONCE THE SUN SETS DIURNAL CU SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT
WITH RECORD LOWS...51 DEGREES FOR INDIANAPOLIS. WITH A BIT OF A
GRADIENT STILL ACROSS THE AREA THINK WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT NOT
GO CALM AND BEST SUBSIDENCE WILL STILL BE TO THE NORTH. EXPECT TO
SEE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS CLOSE
TO MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT THEY SHOULD NEED THE HELP OF AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET ANY PRECIP GOING. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT
NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. GENERALLY MODEL/GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROMOTE DAILY THREATS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH. WILL CARRY 30-40
POPS MOST AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENABLING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY ON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION
VERY LATE TONIGHT MAY BRING A LITTLE MORE STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS
OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO SEE BROKEN CLOUDS 4-5 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING ON AS DAYTIME
HEATING OCCURS.  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE KIND
AND KHUF NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT.  HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO EVEN MENTION VCTS
IN TAFS.

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. .

VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY AND LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...MRD/CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
















000
FXUS63 KIND 290432
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER INDIANA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1012 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
SO BASED ON CURRENT TEMP TRENDS WHICH HAVE BEEN FALLING FASTER THAN
GUIDANCE EXPECTED. THUS...A RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 50 DEGREES
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

ONCE THE SUN SETS DIURNAL CU SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT
WITH RECORD LOWS...51 DEGREES FOR INDIANAPOLIS. WITH A BIT OF A
GRADIENT STILL ACROSS THE AREA THINK WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT NOT
GO CALM AND BEST SUBSIDENCE WILL STILL BE TO THE NORTH. EXPECT TO
SEE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS CLOSE
TO MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT THEY SHOULD NEED THE HELP OF AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET ANY PRECIP GOING. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT
NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. GENERALLY MODEL/GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROMOTE DAILY THREATS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH. WILL CARRY 30-40
POPS MOST AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENABLING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY ON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION
VERY LATE TONIGHT MAY BRING A LITTLE MORE STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS
OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO SEE BROKEN CLOUDS 4-5 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING ON AS DAYTIME
HEATING OCCURS.  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE KIND
AND KHUF NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT.  HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO EVEN MENTION VCTS
IN TAFS.

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. .

VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY AND LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...MRD/CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

















000
FXUS63 KIND 290227
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1028 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER INDIANA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1012 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
SO BASED ON CURRENT TEMP TRENDS WHICH HAVE BEEN FALLING FASTER THAN
GUIDANCE EXPECTED. THUS...A RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 50 DEGREES
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

ONCE THE SUN SETS DIURNAL CU SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT
WITH RECORD LOWS...51 DEGREES FOR INDIANAPOLIS. WITH A BIT OF A
GRADIENT STILL ACROSS THE AREA THINK WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT NOT
GO CALM AND BEST SUBSIDENCE WILL STILL BE TO THE NORTH. EXPECT TO
SEE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS CLOSE
TO MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT THEY SHOULD NEED THE HELP OF AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET ANY PRECIP GOING. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT
NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. GENERALLY MODEL/GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROMOTE DAILY THREATS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH. WILL CARRY 30-40
POPS MOST AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENABLING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID
EVENING. THERE MAY BE A FEW CU AND WILL MENTION THAT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT MAY
BRING A LITTLE MORE STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS OF THE AREA VERY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE BROKEN CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 4 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING ON.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN AT 10KTS OR
LESS THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...MRD/CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 290227
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1028 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER INDIANA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1012 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
SO BASED ON CURRENT TEMP TRENDS WHICH HAVE BEEN FALLING FASTER THAN
GUIDANCE EXPECTED. THUS...A RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 50 DEGREES
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

ONCE THE SUN SETS DIURNAL CU SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT
WITH RECORD LOWS...51 DEGREES FOR INDIANAPOLIS. WITH A BIT OF A
GRADIENT STILL ACROSS THE AREA THINK WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT NOT
GO CALM AND BEST SUBSIDENCE WILL STILL BE TO THE NORTH. EXPECT TO
SEE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS CLOSE
TO MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT THEY SHOULD NEED THE HELP OF AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET ANY PRECIP GOING. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT
NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. GENERALLY MODEL/GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROMOTE DAILY THREATS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH. WILL CARRY 30-40
POPS MOST AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENABLING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID
EVENING. THERE MAY BE A FEW CU AND WILL MENTION THAT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT MAY
BRING A LITTLE MORE STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS OF THE AREA VERY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE BROKEN CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 4 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING ON.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN AT 10KTS OR
LESS THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...MRD/CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 290215
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1015 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER INDIANA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1012 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
SO BASED ON CURRENT TEMP TRENDS WHICH HAVE BEEN FALLING FASTER THAN
GUIDANCE EXPECTED. THUS...A RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 50 DEGREES
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

ONCE THE SUN SETS DIURNAL CU SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT
WITH RECORD LOWS...51 DEGREES FOR INDIANAPOLIS. WITH A BIT OF A
GRADIENT STILL ACROSS THE AREA THINK WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT NOT
GO CALM AND BEST SUBSIDENCE WILL STILL BE TO THE NORTH. EXPECT TO
SEE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS CLOSE
TO MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT THEY SHOULD NEED THE HELP OF AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET ANY PRECIP GOING. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT
NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. GENERALLY MODEL/GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROMOTE DAILY THREATS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH. WILL CARRY 30-40
POPS MOST AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENABLING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID
EVENING. THERE MAY BE A FEW CU AND WILL MENTION THAT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT MAY
BRING A LITTLE MORE STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS OF THE AREA VERY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE BROKEN CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 4 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING ON.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN AT 10KTS OR
LESS THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...MRD/CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 290215
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1015 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER INDIANA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1012 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
SO BASED ON CURRENT TEMP TRENDS WHICH HAVE BEEN FALLING FASTER THAN
GUIDANCE EXPECTED. THUS...A RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 50 DEGREES
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

ONCE THE SUN SETS DIURNAL CU SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT
WITH RECORD LOWS...51 DEGREES FOR INDIANAPOLIS. WITH A BIT OF A
GRADIENT STILL ACROSS THE AREA THINK WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT NOT
GO CALM AND BEST SUBSIDENCE WILL STILL BE TO THE NORTH. EXPECT TO
SEE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS CLOSE
TO MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT THEY SHOULD NEED THE HELP OF AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET ANY PRECIP GOING. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT
NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. GENERALLY MODEL/GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROMOTE DAILY THREATS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH. WILL CARRY 30-40
POPS MOST AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENABLING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID
EVENING. THERE MAY BE A FEW CU AND WILL MENTION THAT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT MAY
BRING A LITTLE MORE STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS OF THE AREA VERY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE BROKEN CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 4 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING ON.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN AT 10KTS OR
LESS THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...MRD/CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 282307
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
705 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER INDIANA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

ONCE THE SUN SETS DIURNAL CU SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH
RECORD LOWS /51 FOR INDIANAPOLIS/ BUT RIGHT NOW THINK THE CITY WILL
STAY WILL ABOVE THAT. WITH A BIT OF A GRADIENT STILL ACROSS THE AREA
THINK WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT NOT GO CALM AND BEST SUBSIDENCE WILL
STILL BE TO THE NORTH AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR STAYING ABOVE THE
RECORD. EXPECT TO SEE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH IS CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT THEY SHOULD NEED THE HELP OF AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET ANY PRECIP GOING. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT
NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. GENERALLY MODEL/GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROMOTE DAILY THREATS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH. WILL CARRY 30-40
POPS MOST AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENABLING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID
EVENING. THERE MAY BE A FEW CU AND WILL MENTION THAT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT MAY
BRING A LITTLE MORE STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS OF THE AREA VERY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE BROKEN CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 4 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING ON.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN AT 10KTS OR
LESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 282307
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
705 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER INDIANA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

ONCE THE SUN SETS DIURNAL CU SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH
RECORD LOWS /51 FOR INDIANAPOLIS/ BUT RIGHT NOW THINK THE CITY WILL
STAY WILL ABOVE THAT. WITH A BIT OF A GRADIENT STILL ACROSS THE AREA
THINK WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT NOT GO CALM AND BEST SUBSIDENCE WILL
STILL BE TO THE NORTH AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR STAYING ABOVE THE
RECORD. EXPECT TO SEE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH IS CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT THEY SHOULD NEED THE HELP OF AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET ANY PRECIP GOING. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT
NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. GENERALLY MODEL/GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROMOTE DAILY THREATS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH. WILL CARRY 30-40
POPS MOST AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENABLING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID
EVENING. THERE MAY BE A FEW CU AND WILL MENTION THAT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT MAY
BRING A LITTLE MORE STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS OF THE AREA VERY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE BROKEN CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 4 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING ON.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN AT 10KTS OR
LESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 282025
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
425 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER INDIANA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

ONCE THE SUN SETS DIURNAL CU SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH
RECORD LOWS /51 FOR INDIANAPOLIS/ BUT RIGHT NOW THINK THE CITY WILL
STAY WILL ABOVE THAT. WITH A BIT OF A GRADIENT STILL ACROSS THE AREA
THINK WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT NOT GO CALM AND BEST SUBSIDENCE WILL
STILL BE TO THE NORTH AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR STAYING ABOVE THE
RECORD. EXPECT TO SEE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH IS CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT THEY SHOULD NEED THE HELP OF AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET ANY PRECIP GOING. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT
NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. GENERALLY MODEL/GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROMOTE DAILY THREATS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH. WILL CARRY 30-40
POPS MOST AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENABLING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 282100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PORTION OF PREVIOUS AVIATION
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT UP TO CLOSER TO 4KFT BY LATE AFTERNOON. CU
WILL SCATTER AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN EARLY THIS EVENING. N/NW WINDS
MAY GUST TO 20-25KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
IS LIKELY TO SPREAD VFR STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS OF THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10KTS OR LESS
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 281940
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
340 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER INDIANA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

ONCE THE SUN SETS DIURNAL CU SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH
RECORD LOWS /51 FOR INDIANAPOLIS/ BUT RIGHT NOW THINK THE CITY WILL
STAY WILL ABOVE THAT. WITH A BIT OF A GRADIENT STILL ACROSS THE AREA
THINK WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT NOT GO CALM AND BEST SUBSIDENCE WILL
STILL BE TO THE NORTH AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR STAYING ABOVE THE
RECORD. EXPECT TO SEE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH IS CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT THEY SHOULD NEED THE HELP OF AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET ANY PRECIP GOING. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT
NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. GENERALLY MODEL/GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROMOTE DAILY THREATS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH. WILL CARRY 30-40
POPS MOST AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENABLING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

STUBBORN MVFR STRATOCU DECK SLOWLY MIXING OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS REMAIN GENERALLY AT 2000-2500FT BUT AS THE
INVERSION WEAKENS...EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT UP TO CLOSER TO 4KFT
BY LATE AFTERNOON. CU WILL SCATTER AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN EARLY
THIS EVENING. N/NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25KTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
IS LIKELY TO SPREAD VFR STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS OF THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10KTS OR LESS
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 281940
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
340 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER INDIANA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

ONCE THE SUN SETS DIURNAL CU SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH
RECORD LOWS /51 FOR INDIANAPOLIS/ BUT RIGHT NOW THINK THE CITY WILL
STAY WILL ABOVE THAT. WITH A BIT OF A GRADIENT STILL ACROSS THE AREA
THINK WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT NOT GO CALM AND BEST SUBSIDENCE WILL
STILL BE TO THE NORTH AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR STAYING ABOVE THE
RECORD. EXPECT TO SEE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH IS CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT THEY SHOULD NEED THE HELP OF AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET ANY PRECIP GOING. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT
NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. GENERALLY MODEL/GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROMOTE DAILY THREATS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH. WILL CARRY 30-40
POPS MOST AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENABLING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

STUBBORN MVFR STRATOCU DECK SLOWLY MIXING OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS REMAIN GENERALLY AT 2000-2500FT BUT AS THE
INVERSION WEAKENS...EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT UP TO CLOSER TO 4KFT
BY LATE AFTERNOON. CU WILL SCATTER AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN EARLY
THIS EVENING. N/NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25KTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
IS LIKELY TO SPREAD VFR STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS OF THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10KTS OR LESS
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 281844
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 940 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS A
BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BROUGHT IN
LOWER DEW POINTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. MADE NO CHANGES TO POPS OR
TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROMOTE DAILY THREATS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH. WILL CARRY 30-40
POPS MOST AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENABLING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY
MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

STUBBORN MVFR STRATOCU DECK SLOWLY MIXING OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS REMAIN GENERALLY AT 2000-2500FT BUT AS THE
INVERSION WEAKENS...EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT UP TO CLOSER TO 4KFT
BY LATE AFTERNOON. CU WILL SCATTER AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN EARLY
THIS EVENING. N/NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25KTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
IS LIKELY TO SPREAD VFR STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS OF THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10KTS OR LESS
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 281844
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 940 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS A
BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BROUGHT IN
LOWER DEW POINTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. MADE NO CHANGES TO POPS OR
TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROMOTE DAILY THREATS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH. WILL CARRY 30-40
POPS MOST AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENABLING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY
MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

STUBBORN MVFR STRATOCU DECK SLOWLY MIXING OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS REMAIN GENERALLY AT 2000-2500FT BUT AS THE
INVERSION WEAKENS...EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT UP TO CLOSER TO 4KFT
BY LATE AFTERNOON. CU WILL SCATTER AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN EARLY
THIS EVENING. N/NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25KTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
IS LIKELY TO SPREAD VFR STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS OF THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10KTS OR LESS
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 281738
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
138 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 940 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS A
BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BROUGHT IN
LOWER DEW POINTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. MADE NO CHANGES TO POPS OR
TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

STUBBORN MVFR STRATOCU DECK SLOWLY MIXING OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS REMAIN GENERALLY AT 2000-2500FT BUT AS THE
INVERSION WEAKENS...EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT UP TO CLOSER TO 4KFT
BY LATE AFTERNOON. CU WILL SCATTER AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN EARLY
THIS EVENING. N/NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25KTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
IS LIKELY TO SPREAD VFR STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS OF THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10KTS OR LESS
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 281738
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
138 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 940 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS A
BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BROUGHT IN
LOWER DEW POINTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. MADE NO CHANGES TO POPS OR
TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

STUBBORN MVFR STRATOCU DECK SLOWLY MIXING OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS REMAIN GENERALLY AT 2000-2500FT BUT AS THE
INVERSION WEAKENS...EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT UP TO CLOSER TO 4KFT
BY LATE AFTERNOON. CU WILL SCATTER AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN EARLY
THIS EVENING. N/NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25KTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
IS LIKELY TO SPREAD VFR STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS OF THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10KTS OR LESS
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 281426
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 940 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS A
BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BROUGHT IN
LOWER DEW POINTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. MADE NO CHANGES TO POPS OR
TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

STRATUS DECK REMAINS SOLID AT KIND...WITH BOTH KBMG AND KLAF NEAR
THE BACK EDGE. LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INVERSION WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING STRATUS TO LIFT AND
BEGIN TO BREAK UP. GOING TO HOLD ONTO MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS CLIMBING ABOVE 3KFT THEREAFTER. CU GRADUALLY
DECREASES IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
N/NW WIND GUSTS 20-25KTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-MORNING. AFTER THAT...VFR SHOULD BE THE
PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12 TO 15 KTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KIND AND KLAF...THEY WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING BUT REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 281426
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 940 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS A
BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BROUGHT IN
LOWER DEW POINTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. MADE NO CHANGES TO POPS OR
TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

STRATUS DECK REMAINS SOLID AT KIND...WITH BOTH KBMG AND KLAF NEAR
THE BACK EDGE. LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INVERSION WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING STRATUS TO LIFT AND
BEGIN TO BREAK UP. GOING TO HOLD ONTO MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS CLIMBING ABOVE 3KFT THEREAFTER. CU GRADUALLY
DECREASES IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
N/NW WIND GUSTS 20-25KTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-MORNING. AFTER THAT...VFR SHOULD BE THE
PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12 TO 15 KTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KIND AND KLAF...THEY WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING BUT REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 281346
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
946 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 940 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS A
BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BROUGHT IN
LOWER DEW POINTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. MADE NO CHANGES TO POPS OR
TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LINGERING MOISTURE ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-MORNING. AFTER THAT...VFR SHOULD BE THE
PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12 TO 15 KTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KIND AND KLAF...THEY WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING BUT REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 281346
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
946 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 940 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS A
BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BROUGHT IN
LOWER DEW POINTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. MADE NO CHANGES TO POPS OR
TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LINGERING MOISTURE ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-MORNING. AFTER THAT...VFR SHOULD BE THE
PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12 TO 15 KTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KIND AND KLAF...THEY WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING BUT REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 281109
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
709 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LINGERING MOISTURE ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-MORNING. AFTER THAT...VFR SHOULD BE THE
PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12 TO 15 KTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KIND AND KLAF...THEY WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING BUT REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY.


&&


.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 281109
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
709 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LINGERING MOISTURE ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-MORNING. AFTER THAT...VFR SHOULD BE THE
PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12 TO 15 KTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KIND AND KLAF...THEY WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING BUT REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY.


&&


.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 280815
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
415 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THESE SYSTEMS WILL
KEEP US UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS INDICATE THESE CEILINGS MAY SPREAD SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT LEAST INTO THE KLAF AND KIND BY 09Z-10Z. NOT SURE ABOUT
KHUF AND KBMG AND WILL ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS THERE.

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND BECOME VFR BY LATE
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY.  WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 8 KNOTS
OR LESS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 280815
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
415 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THESE SYSTEMS WILL
KEEP US UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS INDICATE THESE CEILINGS MAY SPREAD SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT LEAST INTO THE KLAF AND KIND BY 09Z-10Z. NOT SURE ABOUT
KHUF AND KBMG AND WILL ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS THERE.

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND BECOME VFR BY LATE
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY.  WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 8 KNOTS
OR LESS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 280751
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
351 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 103 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THESE SYSTEMS WILL
KEEP US UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS INDICATE THESE CEILINGS MAY SPREAD SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT LEAST INTO THE KLAF AND KIND BY 09Z-10Z. NOT SURE ABOUT
KHUF AND KBMG AND WILL ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS THERE.

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND BECOME VFR BY LATE
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY.  WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 8 KNOTS
OR LESS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 280751
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
351 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 103 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THESE SYSTEMS WILL
KEEP US UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS INDICATE THESE CEILINGS MAY SPREAD SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT LEAST INTO THE KLAF AND KIND BY 09Z-10Z. NOT SURE ABOUT
KHUF AND KBMG AND WILL ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS THERE.

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND BECOME VFR BY LATE
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY.  WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 8 KNOTS
OR LESS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 280601
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 103 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THESE SYSTEMS WILL
KEEP US UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS INDICATE THESE CEILINGS MAY SPREAD SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT LEAST INTO THE KLAF AND KIND BY 09Z-10Z. NOT SURE ABOUT
KHUF AND KBMG AND WILL ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS THERE.

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND BECOME VFR BY LATE
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY.  WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 8 KNOTS
OR LESS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 280504
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
104 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PULLED LOW POPS NORTHERN COUNTIES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS WHICH HAVE
SHOWN A FEW SHOWERS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FALL APART BEFORE MAKING IT
THIS FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 103 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THESE SYSTEMS WILL
KEEP US UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS INDICATE THESE CEILINGS MAY SPREAD SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT LEAST INTO THE KLAF AND KIND BY 09Z-10Z. NOT SURE ABOUT
KHUF AND KBMG AND WILL ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS THERE.

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND BECOME VFR BY LATE
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY.  WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 8 KNOTS
OR LESS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 280504
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
104 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PULLED LOW POPS NORTHERN COUNTIES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS WHICH HAVE
SHOWN A FEW SHOWERS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FALL APART BEFORE MAKING IT
THIS FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 103 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THESE SYSTEMS WILL
KEEP US UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS INDICATE THESE CEILINGS MAY SPREAD SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT LEAST INTO THE KLAF AND KIND BY 09Z-10Z. NOT SURE ABOUT
KHUF AND KBMG AND WILL ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS THERE.

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND BECOME VFR BY LATE
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY.  WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 8 KNOTS
OR LESS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 280428
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1228 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PULLED LOW POPS NORTHERN COUNTIES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS WHICH HAVE
SHOWN A FEW SHOWERS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FALL APART BEFORE MAKING IT
THIS FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 280300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITES BY 00Z. HOWEVER THEY
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KBMG TO CARRY VCTS FOR ABOUT A HALF AN HOUR.
OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY FOR MAINLY KIND AND KLAF AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MY CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS REACH KHUF AND KBMG ARE LESS AND WILL
ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS FOR NOW.

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS INDICATE A MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS MONDAY.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND
ALL AREAS WILL BECOME VFR BY MIDDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 280229
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 814 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HAVE REMOVED THUNDER THREAT FROM VINCENNES TO SEYMOUR OR ALL
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NOW THAT STORMS HAVE MOVED ON.

HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING FROM KOKOMO TO MUNCIE
AND WINCHESTER AS INSTABILITY SHOWERS WRAP SOUTHEAST FROM UPPER
LOW OVER GREAT LAKES.

REST OF FORECAST FOR TONIGHT UNCHANGED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 280300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITES BY 00Z. HOWEVER THEY
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KBMG TO CARRY VCTS FOR ABOUT A HALF AN HOUR.
OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY FOR MAINLY KIND AND KLAF AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MY CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS REACH KHUF AND KBMG ARE LESS AND WILL
ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS FOR NOW.

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS INDICATE A MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS MONDAY.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND
ALL AREAS WILL BECOME VFR BY MIDDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 280229
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 814 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HAVE REMOVED THUNDER THREAT FROM VINCENNES TO SEYMOUR OR ALL
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NOW THAT STORMS HAVE MOVED ON.

HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING FROM KOKOMO TO MUNCIE
AND WINCHESTER AS INSTABILITY SHOWERS WRAP SOUTHEAST FROM UPPER
LOW OVER GREAT LAKES.

REST OF FORECAST FOR TONIGHT UNCHANGED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 280300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITES BY 00Z. HOWEVER THEY
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KBMG TO CARRY VCTS FOR ABOUT A HALF AN HOUR.
OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY FOR MAINLY KIND AND KLAF AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MY CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS REACH KHUF AND KBMG ARE LESS AND WILL
ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS FOR NOW.

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS INDICATE A MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS MONDAY.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND
ALL AREAS WILL BECOME VFR BY MIDDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 280016
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
816 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 814 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HAVE REMOVED THUNDER THREAT FROM VINCENNES TO SEYMOUR OR ALL
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NOW THAT STORMS HAVE MOVED ON.

HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING FROM KOKOMO TO MUNCIE
AND WINCHESTER AS INSTABILITY SHOWERS WRAP SOUTHEAST FROM UPPER
LOW OVER GREAT LAKES.

REST OF FORECAST FOR TONIGHT UNCHANGED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 280000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITES BY 00Z. HOWEVER THEY
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KBMG TO CARRY VCTS FOR ABOUT A HALF AN HOUR.
OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY FOR MAINLY KIND AND KLAF AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MY CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS REACH KHUF AND KBMG ARE LESS AND WILL
ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS FOR NOW.

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS INDICATE A MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS MONDAY.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND
ALL AREAS WILL BECOME VFR BY MIDDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 280016
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
816 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 814 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HAVE REMOVED THUNDER THREAT FROM VINCENNES TO SEYMOUR OR ALL
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NOW THAT STORMS HAVE MOVED ON.

HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING FROM KOKOMO TO MUNCIE
AND WINCHESTER AS INSTABILITY SHOWERS WRAP SOUTHEAST FROM UPPER
LOW OVER GREAT LAKES.

REST OF FORECAST FOR TONIGHT UNCHANGED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 280000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITES BY 00Z. HOWEVER THEY
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KBMG TO CARRY VCTS FOR ABOUT A HALF AN HOUR.
OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY FOR MAINLY KIND AND KLAF AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MY CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS REACH KHUF AND KBMG ARE LESS AND WILL
ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS FOR NOW.

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS INDICATE A MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS MONDAY.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND
ALL AREAS WILL BECOME VFR BY MIDDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 272259
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
658 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

DROPPING RAIN CHANCES ALTOGETHER ANYWHERE BEHIND CURRENT SCATTERED
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THESE WILL EXIT AREA BY SUNDOWN AND
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL THEN BE DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT EXPECT SOME PATCHY
CLOUD TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN CYCLONIC FLOW.

CURRENT GUSTINESS WILL ALSO DIE DOWN BY DARK WHILE STEADY WINDS
ONLY SLOWLY DROP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KEEPING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 280000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITES BY 00Z. HOWEVER THEY
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KBMG TO CARRY VCTS FOR ABOUT A HALF AN HOUR.
OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY FOR MAINLY KIND AND KLAF AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MY CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS REACH KHUF AND KBMG ARE LESS AND WILL
ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS FOR NOW.

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS INDICATE A MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS MONDAY.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND
ALL AREAS WILL BECOME VFR BY MIDDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 272259
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
658 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

DROPPING RAIN CHANCES ALTOGETHER ANYWHERE BEHIND CURRENT SCATTERED
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THESE WILL EXIT AREA BY SUNDOWN AND
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL THEN BE DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT EXPECT SOME PATCHY
CLOUD TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN CYCLONIC FLOW.

CURRENT GUSTINESS WILL ALSO DIE DOWN BY DARK WHILE STEADY WINDS
ONLY SLOWLY DROP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KEEPING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 280000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITES BY 00Z. HOWEVER THEY
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KBMG TO CARRY VCTS FOR ABOUT A HALF AN HOUR.
OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY FOR MAINLY KIND AND KLAF AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MY CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS REACH KHUF AND KBMG ARE LESS AND WILL
ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS FOR NOW.

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS INDICATE A MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS MONDAY.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND
ALL AREAS WILL BECOME VFR BY MIDDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 272233
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
633 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

DROPPING RAIN CHANCES ALTOGETHER ANYWHERE BEHIND CURRENT SCATTERED
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THESE WILL EXIT AREA BY SUNDOWN AND
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL THEN BE DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT EXPECT SOME PATCHY
CLOUD TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN CYCLONIC FLOW.

CURRENT GUSTINESS WILL ALSO DIE DOWN BY DARK WHILE STEADY WINDS
ONLY SLOWLY DROP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KEEPING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 272100Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 00Z. THESE STORMS MAY
BRING WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS...AS WELL AS BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CEILINGS IN RAIN.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORMS. MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY IN AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 272233
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
633 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

DROPPING RAIN CHANCES ALTOGETHER ANYWHERE BEHIND CURRENT SCATTERED
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THESE WILL EXIT AREA BY SUNDOWN AND
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL THEN BE DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT EXPECT SOME PATCHY
CLOUD TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN CYCLONIC FLOW.

CURRENT GUSTINESS WILL ALSO DIE DOWN BY DARK WHILE STEADY WINDS
ONLY SLOWLY DROP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KEEPING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 272100Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 00Z. THESE STORMS MAY
BRING WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS...AS WELL AS BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CEILINGS IN RAIN.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORMS. MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY IN AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 272024
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
424 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT.

THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BOUNDARY BETWEEN HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER INDIANA THIS EVENING.

AT THE SAME TIME PRESSURE FIELDS ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC POTENTIAL
VORTICITY SURFACE HAVE A STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSING AROUND 00Z. WITH
BOTH THE BOUNDARY AND THE FORCING ALOFT...THERE IS CHANCE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

GIVEN DRY AIR WILL BE STARTING TO ENTER THE AREA...STORMS WITH
ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

WHILE ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT...CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS IS APT TO PERSIST IN A CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE. ITS TOUGH TO OUTDO THEM
SOON AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO THE EXTENT THEY DIFFER...A
CONSENSUS WILL BE USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 272100Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 00Z. THESE STORMS MAY
BRING WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS...AS WELL AS BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CEILINGS IN RAIN.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORMS. MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY IN AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 272024
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
424 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT.

THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BOUNDARY BETWEEN HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER INDIANA THIS EVENING.

AT THE SAME TIME PRESSURE FIELDS ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC POTENTIAL
VORTICITY SURFACE HAVE A STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSING AROUND 00Z. WITH
BOTH THE BOUNDARY AND THE FORCING ALOFT...THERE IS CHANCE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

GIVEN DRY AIR WILL BE STARTING TO ENTER THE AREA...STORMS WITH
ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

WHILE ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT...CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS IS APT TO PERSIST IN A CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE. ITS TOUGH TO OUTDO THEM
SOON AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO THE EXTENT THEY DIFFER...A
CONSENSUS WILL BE USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 272100Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 00Z. THESE STORMS MAY
BRING WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS...AS WELL AS BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CEILINGS IN RAIN.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORMS. MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY IN AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 271914
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT.

THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BOUNDARY BETWEEN HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER INDIANA THIS EVENING.

AT THE SAME TIME PRESSURE FIELDS ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC POTENTIAL
VORTICITY SURFACE HAVE A STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSING AROUND 00Z. WITH
BOTH THE BOUNDARY AND THE FORCING ALOFT...THERE IS CHANCE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

GIVEN DRY AIR WILL BE STARTING TO ENTER THE AREA...STORMS WITH
ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

WHILE ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT...CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS IS APT TO PERSIST IN A CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE. ITS TOUGH TO OUTDO THEM
SOON AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO THE EXTENT THEY DIFFER...A
CONSENSUS WILL BE USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

WEAK BOUNDARY NEARING KIND AND KBMG CURRENTLY AND SHOULD BE EAST
OF ALL TERMINALS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO
W/NW ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES. ADDITIONALLY...LOW CEILINGS AT
800-1500FT WILL DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR CU BY 19-20Z
AT ALL SITES. SECONDARY BOUNDARY NOTED NICELY ON VIS SATELLITE...
EXTENDING FROM NEAR KORD TO KBMI AND KSPI AT 17Z. THIS BOUNDARY
MAY SERVE AS THE FINAL CATALYST FOR SCATTERED LINEAR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KIND AND KLAF.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW FOR VCTS AT ALL SITES
AND FINE TUNE AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION...
WITH GUSTS AT 25 TO 30KTS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN CONVECTION.

MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. AS COLD POOL ALOFT EXPANDS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MVFR
STRATUS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE TERMINALS. MAY SEE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AT KBMG WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL
EARLIER TODAY. LOWER CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IMPACT KIND...BUT COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION. N/NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15KTS BY MIDDAY MONDAY...POSSIBLY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 271914
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT.

THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BOUNDARY BETWEEN HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER INDIANA THIS EVENING.

AT THE SAME TIME PRESSURE FIELDS ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC POTENTIAL
VORTICITY SURFACE HAVE A STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSING AROUND 00Z. WITH
BOTH THE BOUNDARY AND THE FORCING ALOFT...THERE IS CHANCE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

GIVEN DRY AIR WILL BE STARTING TO ENTER THE AREA...STORMS WITH
ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

WHILE ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT...CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS IS APT TO PERSIST IN A CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE. ITS TOUGH TO OUTDO THEM
SOON AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO THE EXTENT THEY DIFFER...A
CONSENSUS WILL BE USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

WEAK BOUNDARY NEARING KIND AND KBMG CURRENTLY AND SHOULD BE EAST
OF ALL TERMINALS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO
W/NW ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES. ADDITIONALLY...LOW CEILINGS AT
800-1500FT WILL DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR CU BY 19-20Z
AT ALL SITES. SECONDARY BOUNDARY NOTED NICELY ON VIS SATELLITE...
EXTENDING FROM NEAR KORD TO KBMI AND KSPI AT 17Z. THIS BOUNDARY
MAY SERVE AS THE FINAL CATALYST FOR SCATTERED LINEAR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KIND AND KLAF.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW FOR VCTS AT ALL SITES
AND FINE TUNE AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION...
WITH GUSTS AT 25 TO 30KTS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN CONVECTION.

MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. AS COLD POOL ALOFT EXPANDS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MVFR
STRATUS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE TERMINALS. MAY SEE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AT KBMG WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL
EARLIER TODAY. LOWER CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IMPACT KIND...BUT COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION. N/NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15KTS BY MIDDAY MONDAY...POSSIBLY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 271801
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT.

THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BOUNDARY BETWEEN HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER INDIANA THIS EVENING.

AT THE SAME TIME PRESSURE FIELDS ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC POTENTIAL
VORTICITY SURFACE HAVE A STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSING AROUND 00Z. WITH
BOTH THE BOUNDARY AND THE FORCING ALOFT...THERE IS CHANCE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

GIVEN DRY AIR WILL BE STARTING TO ENTER THE AREA...STORMS WITH
ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

WHILE ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT...CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS IS APT TO PERSIST IN A CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE. ITS TOUGH TO OUTDO THEM
SOON AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO THE EXTENT THEY DIFFER...A
CONSENSUS WILL BE USED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES RIDE ALONG THAT UPPER LOW. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS
HIGHLIGHTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY.  MODELS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AS A RESULT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

WEAK BOUNDARY NEARING KIND AND KBMG CURRENTLY AND SHOULD BE EAST
OF ALL TERMINALS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO
W/NW ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES. ADDITIONALLY...LOW CEILINGS AT
800-1500FT WILL DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR CU BY 19-20Z
AT ALL SITES. SECONDARY BOUNDARY NOTED NICELY ON VIS SATELLITE...
EXTENDING FROM NEAR KORD TO KBMI AND KSPI AT 17Z. THIS BOUNDARY
MAY SERVE AS THE FINAL CATALYST FOR SCATTERED LINEAR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KIND AND KLAF.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW FOR VCTS AT ALL SITES
AND FINE TUNE AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION...
WITH GUSTS AT 25 TO 30KTS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN CONVECTION.

MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. AS COLD POOL ALOFT EXPANDS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MVFR
STRATUS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE TERMINALS. MAY SEE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AT KBMG WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL
EARLIER TODAY. LOWER CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IMPACT KIND...BUT COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION. N/NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15KTS BY MIDDAY MONDAY...POSSIBLY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 271801
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT.

THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BOUNDARY BETWEEN HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER INDIANA THIS EVENING.

AT THE SAME TIME PRESSURE FIELDS ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC POTENTIAL
VORTICITY SURFACE HAVE A STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSING AROUND 00Z. WITH
BOTH THE BOUNDARY AND THE FORCING ALOFT...THERE IS CHANCE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

GIVEN DRY AIR WILL BE STARTING TO ENTER THE AREA...STORMS WITH
ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

WHILE ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT...CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS IS APT TO PERSIST IN A CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE. ITS TOUGH TO OUTDO THEM
SOON AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO THE EXTENT THEY DIFFER...A
CONSENSUS WILL BE USED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES RIDE ALONG THAT UPPER LOW. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS
HIGHLIGHTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY.  MODELS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AS A RESULT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

WEAK BOUNDARY NEARING KIND AND KBMG CURRENTLY AND SHOULD BE EAST
OF ALL TERMINALS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO
W/NW ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES. ADDITIONALLY...LOW CEILINGS AT
800-1500FT WILL DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR CU BY 19-20Z
AT ALL SITES. SECONDARY BOUNDARY NOTED NICELY ON VIS SATELLITE...
EXTENDING FROM NEAR KORD TO KBMI AND KSPI AT 17Z. THIS BOUNDARY
MAY SERVE AS THE FINAL CATALYST FOR SCATTERED LINEAR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KIND AND KLAF.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW FOR VCTS AT ALL SITES
AND FINE TUNE AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION...
WITH GUSTS AT 25 TO 30KTS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN CONVECTION.

MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. AS COLD POOL ALOFT EXPANDS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MVFR
STRATUS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE TERMINALS. MAY SEE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AT KBMG WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL
EARLIER TODAY. LOWER CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IMPACT KIND...BUT COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION. N/NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15KTS BY MIDDAY MONDAY...POSSIBLY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 271725
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
125 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S EARLY TO MID WEEK. SMALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA TO WISCONSIN AND
EVENTUALLY MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS /AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES 1500 TO 2500 J/KG/
AND 50 TO 60 KNOT DEEP SHEAR TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN HALF IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 65 KNOT MID LEVEL JET
STREAK AND NEAR 850 MILLIBAR 30 KNOT MAX. STILL...THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA IS IN THE DAY1 SPC SLIGHT RISK WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. WITH
DEEP MOSTLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS LOOKS TO BE A
BIGGER THREAT THAN TORNADOES...HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED ONE OR TWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY...STRONG STORMS WERE MARCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE MORNING CONVECTION IS.
WIDESPREAD MORNING STORMS WOULD LIKELY KEEP MODEL INSTABILITY
NUMBERS FROM BEING REALIZED AND LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DESPITE
THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT AND STORM MOTION OF 30 KNOTS OR
MORE...FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HUGE CONCERN.

00Z MOS VERY CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY...LOOKS REASONABLE AND
MATCHES WITH REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS DRY AND
MUCH COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN EVENING
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY
AND DEPARTING COLD FRONT...HOWEVER...BETTER BET IS ANY ACTIVITY WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER STRATUS
POSSIBLE WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
STRONG HUDSON BAY VORTEX EXPECTED TO GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
DIURNAL CU. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN INSTABILITY SHOWER OR
TWO...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION.

MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 9 TO 11 DEGREES CELSIUS
SUGGESTS LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE IN THE MID 80S. MEANWHILE...SIMILAR MOS LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S LOOK GOOD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S THEREAFTER. WOULD NOT
EVEN RULE OUT UPPER 40S IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES RIDE ALONG THAT UPPER LOW. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS
HIGHLIGHTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY.  MODELS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AS A RESULT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

WEAK BOUNDARY NEARING KIND AND KBMG CURRENTLY AND SHOULD BE EAST
OF ALL TERMINALS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO
W/NW ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES. ADDITIONALLY...LOW CEILINGS AT
800-1500FT WILL DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR CU BY 19-20Z
AT ALL SITES. SECONDARY BOUNDARY NOTED NICELY ON VIS SATELLITE...
EXTENDING FROM NEAR KORD TO KBMI AND KSPI AT 17Z. THIS BOUNDARY
MAY SERVE AS THE FINAL CATALYST FOR SCATTERED LINEAR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KIND AND KLAF.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW FOR VCTS AT ALL SITES
AND FINE TUNE AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION...
WITH GUSTS AT 25 TO 30KTS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN CONVECTION.

MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. AS COLD POOL ALOFT EXPANDS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MVFR
STRATUS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE TERMINALS. MAY SEE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AT KBMG WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL
EARLIER TODAY. LOWER CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IMPACT KIND...BUT COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION. N/NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15KTS BY MIDDAY MONDAY...POSSIBLY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 271725
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
125 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S EARLY TO MID WEEK. SMALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA TO WISCONSIN AND
EVENTUALLY MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS /AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES 1500 TO 2500 J/KG/
AND 50 TO 60 KNOT DEEP SHEAR TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN HALF IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 65 KNOT MID LEVEL JET
STREAK AND NEAR 850 MILLIBAR 30 KNOT MAX. STILL...THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA IS IN THE DAY1 SPC SLIGHT RISK WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. WITH
DEEP MOSTLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS LOOKS TO BE A
BIGGER THREAT THAN TORNADOES...HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED ONE OR TWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY...STRONG STORMS WERE MARCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE MORNING CONVECTION IS.
WIDESPREAD MORNING STORMS WOULD LIKELY KEEP MODEL INSTABILITY
NUMBERS FROM BEING REALIZED AND LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DESPITE
THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT AND STORM MOTION OF 30 KNOTS OR
MORE...FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HUGE CONCERN.

00Z MOS VERY CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY...LOOKS REASONABLE AND
MATCHES WITH REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS DRY AND
MUCH COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN EVENING
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY
AND DEPARTING COLD FRONT...HOWEVER...BETTER BET IS ANY ACTIVITY WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER STRATUS
POSSIBLE WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
STRONG HUDSON BAY VORTEX EXPECTED TO GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
DIURNAL CU. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN INSTABILITY SHOWER OR
TWO...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION.

MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 9 TO 11 DEGREES CELSIUS
SUGGESTS LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE IN THE MID 80S. MEANWHILE...SIMILAR MOS LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S LOOK GOOD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S THEREAFTER. WOULD NOT
EVEN RULE OUT UPPER 40S IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES RIDE ALONG THAT UPPER LOW. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS
HIGHLIGHTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY.  MODELS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AS A RESULT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

WEAK BOUNDARY NEARING KIND AND KBMG CURRENTLY AND SHOULD BE EAST
OF ALL TERMINALS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO
W/NW ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES. ADDITIONALLY...LOW CEILINGS AT
800-1500FT WILL DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR CU BY 19-20Z
AT ALL SITES. SECONDARY BOUNDARY NOTED NICELY ON VIS SATELLITE...
EXTENDING FROM NEAR KORD TO KBMI AND KSPI AT 17Z. THIS BOUNDARY
MAY SERVE AS THE FINAL CATALYST FOR SCATTERED LINEAR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KIND AND KLAF.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW FOR VCTS AT ALL SITES
AND FINE TUNE AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION...
WITH GUSTS AT 25 TO 30KTS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN CONVECTION.

MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. AS COLD POOL ALOFT EXPANDS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MVFR
STRATUS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE TERMINALS. MAY SEE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AT KBMG WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL
EARLIER TODAY. LOWER CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IMPACT KIND...BUT COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION. N/NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15KTS BY MIDDAY MONDAY...POSSIBLY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 271416
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1016 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S EARLY TO MID WEEK. SMALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA TO WISCONSIN AND
EVENTUALLY MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS /AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES 1500 TO 2500 J/KG/
AND 50 TO 60 KNOT DEEP SHEAR TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN HALF IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 65 KNOT MID LEVEL JET
STREAK AND NEAR 850 MILLIBAR 30 KNOT MAX. STILL...THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA IS IN THE DAY1 SPC SLIGHT RISK WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. WITH
DEEP MOSTLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS LOOKS TO BE A
BIGGER THREAT THAN TORNADOES...HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED ONE OR TWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY...STRONG STORMS WERE MARCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE MORNING CONVECTION IS.
WIDESPREAD MORNING STORMS WOULD LIKELY KEEP MODEL INSTABILITY
NUMBERS FROM BEING REALIZED AND LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DESPITE
THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT AND STORM MOTION OF 30 KNOTS OR
MORE...FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HUGE CONCERN.

00Z MOS VERY CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY...LOOKS REASONABLE AND
MATCHES WITH REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS DRY AND
MUCH COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN EVENING
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY
AND DEPARTING COLD FRONT...HOWEVER...BETTER BET IS ANY ACTIVITY WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER STRATUS
POSSIBLE WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
STRONG HUDSON BAY VORTEX EXPECTED TO GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
DIURNAL CU. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN INSTABILITY SHOWER OR
TWO...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION.

MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 9 TO 11 DEGREES CELSIUS
SUGGESTS LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE IN THE MID 80S. MEANWHILE...SIMILAR MOS LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S LOOK GOOD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S THEREAFTER. WOULD NOT
EVEN RULE OUT UPPER 40S IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES RIDE ALONG THAT UPPER LOW. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS
HIGHLIGHTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY.  MODELS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AS A RESULT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WEAK SURFACE WAVE ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY. AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD OF
IT...ALONG WITH IFR CONDITIONS. FOCUS OF THE UPDATE IS TO BETTER
TIME THE WINDSHIFT AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
WELL AS ADJUST CEILINGS BASED ON CURRENT OBS. SOME CLEARING JUST
WEST OF KIND WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUN LATE THIS
MORNING BEFORE STRATOCU RETURNS WITH CEILINGS AT 1500-2500FT. STILL
ANTICIPATE VFR CEILINGS ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES BY 17-18Z WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-
MORNING. AFTER THAT...EXPECT A WINDOW OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AS UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL CARRY VCTS AT ALL TAF
SITES FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER TIME FRAME CAN BE PINPOINTED WITH
LATER TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUD DECKS SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND THE
MVFR/VFR MARK /MAINLY VFR/ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TONIGHT...MVFR FOG
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING...
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 14 TO 18 KTS SUSTAINED/GUSTING TO 28
KTS. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 271416
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1016 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S EARLY TO MID WEEK. SMALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA TO WISCONSIN AND
EVENTUALLY MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS /AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES 1500 TO 2500 J/KG/
AND 50 TO 60 KNOT DEEP SHEAR TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN HALF IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 65 KNOT MID LEVEL JET
STREAK AND NEAR 850 MILLIBAR 30 KNOT MAX. STILL...THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA IS IN THE DAY1 SPC SLIGHT RISK WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. WITH
DEEP MOSTLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS LOOKS TO BE A
BIGGER THREAT THAN TORNADOES...HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED ONE OR TWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY...STRONG STORMS WERE MARCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE MORNING CONVECTION IS.
WIDESPREAD MORNING STORMS WOULD LIKELY KEEP MODEL INSTABILITY
NUMBERS FROM BEING REALIZED AND LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DESPITE
THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT AND STORM MOTION OF 30 KNOTS OR
MORE...FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HUGE CONCERN.

00Z MOS VERY CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY...LOOKS REASONABLE AND
MATCHES WITH REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS DRY AND
MUCH COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN EVENING
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY
AND DEPARTING COLD FRONT...HOWEVER...BETTER BET IS ANY ACTIVITY WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER STRATUS
POSSIBLE WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
STRONG HUDSON BAY VORTEX EXPECTED TO GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
DIURNAL CU. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN INSTABILITY SHOWER OR
TWO...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION.

MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 9 TO 11 DEGREES CELSIUS
SUGGESTS LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE IN THE MID 80S. MEANWHILE...SIMILAR MOS LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S LOOK GOOD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S THEREAFTER. WOULD NOT
EVEN RULE OUT UPPER 40S IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES RIDE ALONG THAT UPPER LOW. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS
HIGHLIGHTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY.  MODELS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AS A RESULT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WEAK SURFACE WAVE ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY. AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD OF
IT...ALONG WITH IFR CONDITIONS. FOCUS OF THE UPDATE IS TO BETTER
TIME THE WINDSHIFT AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
WELL AS ADJUST CEILINGS BASED ON CURRENT OBS. SOME CLEARING JUST
WEST OF KIND WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUN LATE THIS
MORNING BEFORE STRATOCU RETURNS WITH CEILINGS AT 1500-2500FT. STILL
ANTICIPATE VFR CEILINGS ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES BY 17-18Z WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-
MORNING. AFTER THAT...EXPECT A WINDOW OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AS UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL CARRY VCTS AT ALL TAF
SITES FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER TIME FRAME CAN BE PINPOINTED WITH
LATER TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUD DECKS SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND THE
MVFR/VFR MARK /MAINLY VFR/ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TONIGHT...MVFR FOG
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING...
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 14 TO 18 KTS SUSTAINED/GUSTING TO 28
KTS. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 271135
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
735 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S EARLY TO MID WEEK. SMALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA TO WISCONSIN AND
EVENTUALLY MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS /AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES 1500 TO 2500 J/KG/
AND 50 TO 60 KNOT DEEP SHEAR TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN HALF IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 65 KNOT MID LEVEL JET
STREAK AND NEAR 850 MILLIBAR 30 KNOT MAX. STILL...THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA IS IN THE DAY1 SPC SLIGHT RISK WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. WITH
DEEP MOSTLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS LOOKS TO BE A
BIGGER THREAT THAN TORNADOES...HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED ONE OR TWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY...STRONG STORMS WERE MARCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE MORNING CONVECTION IS.
WIDESPREAD MORNING STORMS WOULD LIKELY KEEP MODEL INSTABILITY
NUMBERS FROM BEING REALIZED AND LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DESPITE
THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT AND STORM MOTION OF 30 KNOTS OR
MORE...FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HUGE CONCERN.

00Z MOS VERY CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY...LOOKS REASONABLE AND
MATCHES WITH REGRIONAL BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS DRY AND
MUCH COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN EVENING
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY
AND DEPARTING COLD FRONT...HOWEVER...BETTER BET IS ANY ACTIVITY WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER STRATUS
POSSIBLE WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
STRONG HUDSON BAY VORTEX EXPECTED TO GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
DIURNAL CU. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN INSTABILITY SHOWER OR
TWO...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION.

MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 9 TO 11 DEGREES CELSIUS
SUGGESTS LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE IN THE MID 80S. MEANWHILE...SIMILAR MOS LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S LOOK GOOD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S THEREAFTER. WOULD NOT
EVEN RULE OUT UPPER 40S IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES RIDE ALONG THAT UPPER LOW. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS
HIGHLIGHTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY.  MODELS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AS A RESULT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-
MORNING. AFTER THAT...EXPECT A WINDOW OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AS UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL CARRY VCTS AT ALL TAF
SITES FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER TIME FRAME CAN BE PINPOINTED WITH
LATER TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUD DECKS SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND THE
MVFR/VFR MARK /MAINLY VFR/ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TONIGHT...MVFR FOG
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING...INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 14 TO 18 KTS
SUSTAINED/GUSTING TO 28 KTS. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING BUT REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 271135
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
735 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S EARLY TO MID WEEK. SMALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA TO WISCONSIN AND
EVENTUALLY MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS /AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES 1500 TO 2500 J/KG/
AND 50 TO 60 KNOT DEEP SHEAR TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN HALF IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 65 KNOT MID LEVEL JET
STREAK AND NEAR 850 MILLIBAR 30 KNOT MAX. STILL...THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA IS IN THE DAY1 SPC SLIGHT RISK WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. WITH
DEEP MOSTLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS LOOKS TO BE A
BIGGER THREAT THAN TORNADOES...HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED ONE OR TWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY...STRONG STORMS WERE MARCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE MORNING CONVECTION IS.
WIDESPREAD MORNING STORMS WOULD LIKELY KEEP MODEL INSTABILITY
NUMBERS FROM BEING REALIZED AND LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DESPITE
THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT AND STORM MOTION OF 30 KNOTS OR
MORE...FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HUGE CONCERN.

00Z MOS VERY CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY...LOOKS REASONABLE AND
MATCHES WITH REGRIONAL BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS DRY AND
MUCH COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN EVENING
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY
AND DEPARTING COLD FRONT...HOWEVER...BETTER BET IS ANY ACTIVITY WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER STRATUS
POSSIBLE WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
STRONG HUDSON BAY VORTEX EXPECTED TO GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
DIURNAL CU. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN INSTABILITY SHOWER OR
TWO...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION.

MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 9 TO 11 DEGREES CELSIUS
SUGGESTS LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE IN THE MID 80S. MEANWHILE...SIMILAR MOS LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S LOOK GOOD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S THEREAFTER. WOULD NOT
EVEN RULE OUT UPPER 40S IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES RIDE ALONG THAT UPPER LOW. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS
HIGHLIGHTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY.  MODELS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AS A RESULT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-
MORNING. AFTER THAT...EXPECT A WINDOW OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AS UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL CARRY VCTS AT ALL TAF
SITES FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER TIME FRAME CAN BE PINPOINTED WITH
LATER TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUD DECKS SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND THE
MVFR/VFR MARK /MAINLY VFR/ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TONIGHT...MVFR FOG
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING...INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 14 TO 18 KTS
SUSTAINED/GUSTING TO 28 KTS. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING BUT REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 271116
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S EARLY TO MID WEEK. SMALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA TO WISCONSIN AND
EVENTUALLY MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS /AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES 1500 TO 2500 J/KG/
AND 50 TO 60 KNOT DEEP SHEAR TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN HALF IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 65 KNOT MID LEVEL JET
STREAK AND NEAR 850 MILLIBAR 30 KNOT MAX. STILL...THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA IS IN THE DAY1 SPC SLIGHT RISK WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. WITH
DEEP MOSTLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS LOOKS TO BE A
BIGGER THREAT THAN TORNADOES...HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED ONE OR TWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY...STRONG STORMS WERE MARCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE MORNING CONVECTION IS.
WIDESPREAD MORNING STORMS WOULD LIKELY KEEP MODEL INSTABILITY
NUMBERS FROM BEING REALIZED AND LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DESPITE
THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT AND STORM MOTION OF 30 KNOTS OR
MORE...FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HUGE CONCERN.

00Z MOS VERY CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY...LOOKS REASONABLE AND
MATCHES WITH REGRIONAL BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS DRY AND
MUCH COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN EVENING
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY
AND DEPARTING COLD FRONT...HOWEVER...BETTER BET IS ANY ACTIVITY WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER STRATUS
POSSIBLE WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
STRONG HUDSON BAY VORTEX EXPECTED TO GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
DIURNAL CU. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN INSTABILITY SHOWER OR
TWO...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION.

MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 9 TO 11 DEGREES CELSIUS
SUGGESTS LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE IN THE MID 80S. MEANWHILE...SIMILAR MOS LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S LOOK GOOD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S THEREAFTER. WOULD NOT
EVEN RULE OUT UPPER 40S IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES RIDE ALONG THAT UPPER LOW. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS
HIGHLIGHTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY.  MODELS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AS A RESULT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1243 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TEMPORARILY MOVED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
HOWEVER SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE THERE MAY BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT. WILL MENTION VCTS AT
KBMG LATER TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG.
AREA HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND MODELS INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS
AND FOG AT KLAF AND MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT OTHER TAF
SITES LATER TONIGHT.

THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL BREAK UP AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS
SOME AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.  SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG MAY OCCUR
AGAIN AFTER 06Z MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS















000
FXUS63 KIND 271116
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S EARLY TO MID WEEK. SMALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA TO WISCONSIN AND
EVENTUALLY MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS /AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES 1500 TO 2500 J/KG/
AND 50 TO 60 KNOT DEEP SHEAR TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN HALF IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 65 KNOT MID LEVEL JET
STREAK AND NEAR 850 MILLIBAR 30 KNOT MAX. STILL...THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA IS IN THE DAY1 SPC SLIGHT RISK WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. WITH
DEEP MOSTLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS LOOKS TO BE A
BIGGER THREAT THAN TORNADOES...HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED ONE OR TWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY...STRONG STORMS WERE MARCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE MORNING CONVECTION IS.
WIDESPREAD MORNING STORMS WOULD LIKELY KEEP MODEL INSTABILITY
NUMBERS FROM BEING REALIZED AND LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DESPITE
THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT AND STORM MOTION OF 30 KNOTS OR
MORE...FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HUGE CONCERN.

00Z MOS VERY CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY...LOOKS REASONABLE AND
MATCHES WITH REGRIONAL BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS DRY AND
MUCH COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN EVENING
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY
AND DEPARTING COLD FRONT...HOWEVER...BETTER BET IS ANY ACTIVITY WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER STRATUS
POSSIBLE WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
STRONG HUDSON BAY VORTEX EXPECTED TO GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
DIURNAL CU. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN INSTABILITY SHOWER OR
TWO...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION.

MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 9 TO 11 DEGREES CELSIUS
SUGGESTS LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE IN THE MID 80S. MEANWHILE...SIMILAR MOS LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S LOOK GOOD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S THEREAFTER. WOULD NOT
EVEN RULE OUT UPPER 40S IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES RIDE ALONG THAT UPPER LOW. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS
HIGHLIGHTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY.  MODELS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AS A RESULT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1243 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TEMPORARILY MOVED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
HOWEVER SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE THERE MAY BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT. WILL MENTION VCTS AT
KBMG LATER TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG.
AREA HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND MODELS INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS
AND FOG AT KLAF AND MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT OTHER TAF
SITES LATER TONIGHT.

THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL BREAK UP AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS
SOME AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.  SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG MAY OCCUR
AGAIN AFTER 06Z MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 270814
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
414 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WILL PULL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND
LOWER POPS A BIT AS ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY GOOD AND
RADAR WAS NIL.  RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS...ALTHOUGH THEY
DEVELOP MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...DO NOT SHOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE
AREA TO JUSTIFY KEEPING THE WATCH GOING...AND 24 HOUR STORM TOTALS
WERE LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS ALL BUT VERY LOCALIZED SPOTS. SHOULD
ALSO SEE SOME STRATUS AND FOG OVERNIGHT WITH OBSERVATIONS ALREADY
SHOWING SATURATION IS OCCURING OR CLOSE TO OCCURING AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY AND LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE BEHIND
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE DRIER AIR
IS PRESENT AND BETTER FORCING LIKELY TO BE OFF TO THE EAST IN
OHIO...PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN
THE AFTERNOON REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY WILL DEPEND ON HOW UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE CAN GET IN THE AFTERNOON.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U S. THIS WILL
TRANSITION TO A MUCH COOLER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEYOND
THAT...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS MAVMOS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPS FALL EARLY IN
THE WEEK. HIGHS BY TUESDAY LIKELY TO BE A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. TOOK A MOS BLEND ON LOWS. MAY SEE SOME UPPER 40S IN OUTLYING
AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES RIDE ALONG THAT UPPER LOW. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS
HIGHLIGHTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY.  MODELS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AS A RESULT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPDATE...
CEILINGS ARE FLUCTUATING FROM IFR TO VFR CATEGORY AT KIND...BUT
FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO FORM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TEMPORARILY MOVED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
HOWEVER SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE THERE MAY BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT. WILL MENTION VCTS AT
KBMG LATER TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG.
AREA HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND MODELS INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS
AND FOG AT KLAF AND MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT OTHER TAF
SITES LATER TONIGHT.

THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL BREAK UP AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS
SOME AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.  SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG MAY OCCUR
AGAIN AFTER 06Z MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN/MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 270814
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
414 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WILL PULL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND
LOWER POPS A BIT AS ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY GOOD AND
RADAR WAS NIL.  RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS...ALTHOUGH THEY
DEVELOP MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...DO NOT SHOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE
AREA TO JUSTIFY KEEPING THE WATCH GOING...AND 24 HOUR STORM TOTALS
WERE LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS ALL BUT VERY LOCALIZED SPOTS. SHOULD
ALSO SEE SOME STRATUS AND FOG OVERNIGHT WITH OBSERVATIONS ALREADY
SHOWING SATURATION IS OCCURING OR CLOSE TO OCCURING AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY AND LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE BEHIND
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE DRIER AIR
IS PRESENT AND BETTER FORCING LIKELY TO BE OFF TO THE EAST IN
OHIO...PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN
THE AFTERNOON REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY WILL DEPEND ON HOW UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE CAN GET IN THE AFTERNOON.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U S. THIS WILL
TRANSITION TO A MUCH COOLER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEYOND
THAT...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS MAVMOS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPS FALL EARLY IN
THE WEEK. HIGHS BY TUESDAY LIKELY TO BE A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. TOOK A MOS BLEND ON LOWS. MAY SEE SOME UPPER 40S IN OUTLYING
AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES RIDE ALONG THAT UPPER LOW. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS
HIGHLIGHTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY.  MODELS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AS A RESULT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPDATE...
CEILINGS ARE FLUCTUATING FROM IFR TO VFR CATEGORY AT KIND...BUT
FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO FORM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TEMPORARILY MOVED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
HOWEVER SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE THERE MAY BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT. WILL MENTION VCTS AT
KBMG LATER TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG.
AREA HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND MODELS INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS
AND FOG AT KLAF AND MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT OTHER TAF
SITES LATER TONIGHT.

THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL BREAK UP AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS
SOME AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.  SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG MAY OCCUR
AGAIN AFTER 06Z MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN/MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 270813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S EARLY TO MID WEEK. SMALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA TO WISCONSIN AND
EVENTUALLY MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS /AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES 1500 TO 2500 J/KG/
AND 50 TO 60 KNOT DEEP SHEAR TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN HALF IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 65 KNOT MID LEVEL JET
STREAK AND NEAR 850 MILLIBAR 30 KNOT MAX. STILL...THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA IS IN THE DAY1 SPC SLIGHT RISK WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. WITH
DEEP MOSTLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS LOOKS TO BE A
BIGGER THREAT THAN TORNADOES...HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED ONE OR TWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY...STRONG STORMS WERE MARCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE MORNING CONVECTION IS.
WIDESPREAD MORNING STORMS WOULD LIKELY KEEP MODEL INSTABILITY
NUMBERS FROM BEING REALIZED AND LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DESPITE
THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT AND STORM MOTION OF 30 KNOTS OR
MORE...FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HUGE CONCERN.

00Z MOS VERY CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY...LOOKS REASONABLE AND
MATCHES WITH REGRIONAL BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS DRY AND
MUCH COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN EVENING
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY
AND DEPARTING COLD FRONT...HOWEVER...BETTER BET IS ANY ACTIVITY WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER STRATUS
POSSIBLE WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
STRONG HUDSON BAY VORTEX EXPECTED TO GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
DIURNAL CU. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN INSTABILITY SHOWER OR
TWO...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION.

MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 9 TO 11 DEGREES CELSIUS
SUGGESTS LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE IN THE MID 80S. MEANWHILE...SIMILAR MOS LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S LOOK GOOD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S THEREAFTER. WOULD NOT
EVEN RULE OUT UPPER 40S IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES RIDE ALONG THAT UPPER LOW. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS
HIGHLIGHTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY.  MODELS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AS A RESULT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1243 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TEMPORARILY MOVED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
HOWEVER SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE THERE MAY BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT. WILL MENTION VCTS AT
KBMG LATER TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG.
AREA HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND MODELS INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS
AND FOG AT KLAF AND MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT OTHER TAF
SITES LATER TONIGHT.

THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL BREAK UP AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS
SOME AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.  SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG MAY OCCUR
AGAIN AFTER 06Z MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 270813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S EARLY TO MID WEEK. SMALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA TO WISCONSIN AND
EVENTUALLY MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS /AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES 1500 TO 2500 J/KG/
AND 50 TO 60 KNOT DEEP SHEAR TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN HALF IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 65 KNOT MID LEVEL JET
STREAK AND NEAR 850 MILLIBAR 30 KNOT MAX. STILL...THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA IS IN THE DAY1 SPC SLIGHT RISK WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. WITH
DEEP MOSTLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS LOOKS TO BE A
BIGGER THREAT THAN TORNADOES...HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED ONE OR TWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY...STRONG STORMS WERE MARCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE MORNING CONVECTION IS.
WIDESPREAD MORNING STORMS WOULD LIKELY KEEP MODEL INSTABILITY
NUMBERS FROM BEING REALIZED AND LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DESPITE
THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT AND STORM MOTION OF 30 KNOTS OR
MORE...FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HUGE CONCERN.

00Z MOS VERY CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY...LOOKS REASONABLE AND
MATCHES WITH REGRIONAL BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS DRY AND
MUCH COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN EVENING
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY
AND DEPARTING COLD FRONT...HOWEVER...BETTER BET IS ANY ACTIVITY WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER STRATUS
POSSIBLE WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
STRONG HUDSON BAY VORTEX EXPECTED TO GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
DIURNAL CU. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN INSTABILITY SHOWER OR
TWO...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION.

MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 9 TO 11 DEGREES CELSIUS
SUGGESTS LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE IN THE MID 80S. MEANWHILE...SIMILAR MOS LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S LOOK GOOD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S THEREAFTER. WOULD NOT
EVEN RULE OUT UPPER 40S IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES RIDE ALONG THAT UPPER LOW. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS
HIGHLIGHTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY.  MODELS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AS A RESULT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1243 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TEMPORARILY MOVED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
HOWEVER SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE THERE MAY BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT. WILL MENTION VCTS AT
KBMG LATER TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG.
AREA HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND MODELS INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS
AND FOG AT KLAF AND MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT OTHER TAF
SITES LATER TONIGHT.

THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL BREAK UP AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS
SOME AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.  SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG MAY OCCUR
AGAIN AFTER 06Z MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 270741
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
341 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WILL PULL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND
LOWER POPS A BIT AS ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY GOOD AND
RADAR WAS NIL.  RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS...ALTHOUGH THEY
DEVELOP MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...DO NOT SHOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE
AREA TO JUSTIFY KEEPING THE WATCH GOING...AND 24 HOUR STORM TOTALS
WERE LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS ALL BUT VERY LOCALIZED SPOTS. SHOULD
ALSO SEE SOME STRATUS AND FOG OVERNIGHT WITH OBSERVATIONS ALREADY
SHOWING SATURATION IS OCCURING OR CLOSE TO OCCURING AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY AND LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE BEHIND
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE DRIER AIR
IS PRESENT AND BETTER FORCING LIKELY TO BE OFF TO THE EAST IN
OHIO...PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN
THE AFTERNOON REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY WILL DEPEND ON HOW UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE CAN GET IN THE AFTERNOON.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U S. THIS WILL
TRANSITION TO A MUCH COOLER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEYOND
THAT...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS MAVMOS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPS FALL EARLY IN
THE WEEK. HIGHS BY TUESDAY LIKELY TO BE A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. TOOK A MOS BLEND ON LOWS. MAY SEE SOME UPPER 40S IN OUTLYING
AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES RIDE ALONG THAT UPPER LOW. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS
HIGHLIGHTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY.  MODELS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AS A RESULT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1243 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TEMPORARILY MOVED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
HOWEVER SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE THERE MAY BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT. WILL MENTION VCTS AT
KBMG LATER TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG.
AREA HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND MODELS INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS
AND FOG AT KLAF AND MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT OTHER TAF
SITES LATER TONIGHT.

THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL BREAK UP AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS
SOME AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.  SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG MAY OCCUR
AGAIN AFTER 06Z MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN/MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 270741
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
341 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WILL PULL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND
LOWER POPS A BIT AS ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY GOOD AND
RADAR WAS NIL.  RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS...ALTHOUGH THEY
DEVELOP MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...DO NOT SHOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE
AREA TO JUSTIFY KEEPING THE WATCH GOING...AND 24 HOUR STORM TOTALS
WERE LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS ALL BUT VERY LOCALIZED SPOTS. SHOULD
ALSO SEE SOME STRATUS AND FOG OVERNIGHT WITH OBSERVATIONS ALREADY
SHOWING SATURATION IS OCCURING OR CLOSE TO OCCURING AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY AND LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE BEHIND
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE DRIER AIR
IS PRESENT AND BETTER FORCING LIKELY TO BE OFF TO THE EAST IN
OHIO...PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN
THE AFTERNOON REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY WILL DEPEND ON HOW UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE CAN GET IN THE AFTERNOON.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U S. THIS WILL
TRANSITION TO A MUCH COOLER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEYOND
THAT...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS MAVMOS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPS FALL EARLY IN
THE WEEK. HIGHS BY TUESDAY LIKELY TO BE A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. TOOK A MOS BLEND ON LOWS. MAY SEE SOME UPPER 40S IN OUTLYING
AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES RIDE ALONG THAT UPPER LOW. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS
HIGHLIGHTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY.  MODELS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AS A RESULT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1243 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TEMPORARILY MOVED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
HOWEVER SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE THERE MAY BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT. WILL MENTION VCTS AT
KBMG LATER TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG.
AREA HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND MODELS INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS
AND FOG AT KLAF AND MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT OTHER TAF
SITES LATER TONIGHT.

THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL BREAK UP AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS
SOME AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.  SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG MAY OCCUR
AGAIN AFTER 06Z MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN/MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 270444
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1244 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WILL PULL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND
LOWER POPS A BIT AS ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY GOOD AND
RADAR WAS NIL.  RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS...ALTHOUGH THEY
DEVELOP MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...DO NOT SHOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE
AREA TO JUSTIFY KEEPING THE WATCH GOING...AND 24 HOUR STORM TOTALS
WERE LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS ALL BUT VERY LOCALIZED SPOTS. SHOULD
ALSO SEE SOME STRATUS AND FOG OVERNIGHT WITH OBSERVATIONS ALREADY
SHOWING SATURATION IS OCCURING OR CLOSE TO OCCURING AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY AND LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE BEHIND
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE DRIER AIR
IS PRESENT AND BETTER FORCING LIKELY TO BE OFF TO THE EAST IN
OHIO...PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN
THE AFTERNOON REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY WILL DEPEND ON HOW UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE CAN GET IN THE AFTERNOON.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U S. THIS WILL
TRANSITION TO A MUCH COOLER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEYOND
THAT...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS MAVMOS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPS FALL EARLY IN
THE WEEK. HIGHS BY TUESDAY LIKELY TO BE A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. TOOK A MOS BLEND ON LOWS. MAY SEE SOME UPPER 40S IN OUTLYING
AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND DECENT TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EAST. A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL PUT CENTRAL INDIANA
BACK INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THEREFORE...DIURNAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS INDICATED BY THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION...CONTINUES TO APPEAR THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE
THINGS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
MAXIMUMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN ONLY THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1243 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TEMPORARILY MOVED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
HOWEVER SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE THERE MAY BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT. WILL MENTION VCTS AT
KBMG LATER TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG.
AREA HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND MODELS INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS
AND FOG AT KLAF AND MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT OTHER TAF
SITES LATER TONIGHT.

THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL BREAK UP AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS
SOME AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.  SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG MAY OCCUR
AGAIN AFTER 06Z MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN/MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....LEE
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 270444
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1244 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WILL PULL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND
LOWER POPS A BIT AS ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY GOOD AND
RADAR WAS NIL.  RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS...ALTHOUGH THEY
DEVELOP MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...DO NOT SHOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE
AREA TO JUSTIFY KEEPING THE WATCH GOING...AND 24 HOUR STORM TOTALS
WERE LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS ALL BUT VERY LOCALIZED SPOTS. SHOULD
ALSO SEE SOME STRATUS AND FOG OVERNIGHT WITH OBSERVATIONS ALREADY
SHOWING SATURATION IS OCCURING OR CLOSE TO OCCURING AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY AND LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE BEHIND
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE DRIER AIR
IS PRESENT AND BETTER FORCING LIKELY TO BE OFF TO THE EAST IN
OHIO...PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN
THE AFTERNOON REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY WILL DEPEND ON HOW UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE CAN GET IN THE AFTERNOON.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U S. THIS WILL
TRANSITION TO A MUCH COOLER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEYOND
THAT...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS MAVMOS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPS FALL EARLY IN
THE WEEK. HIGHS BY TUESDAY LIKELY TO BE A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. TOOK A MOS BLEND ON LOWS. MAY SEE SOME UPPER 40S IN OUTLYING
AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND DECENT TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EAST. A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL PUT CENTRAL INDIANA
BACK INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THEREFORE...DIURNAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS INDICATED BY THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION...CONTINUES TO APPEAR THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE
THINGS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
MAXIMUMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN ONLY THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1243 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TEMPORARILY MOVED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
HOWEVER SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE THERE MAY BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT. WILL MENTION VCTS AT
KBMG LATER TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG.
AREA HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND MODELS INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS
AND FOG AT KLAF AND MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT OTHER TAF
SITES LATER TONIGHT.

THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL BREAK UP AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS
SOME AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.  SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG MAY OCCUR
AGAIN AFTER 06Z MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN/MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....LEE
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 270435
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1235 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS AND NEAR TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WILL PULL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND
LOWER POPS A BIT AS ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY GOOD AND
RADAR WAS NIL.  RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS...ALTHOUGH THEY
DEVELOP MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...DO NOT SHOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE
AREA TO JUSTIFY KEEPING THE WATCH GOING...AND 24 HOUR STORM TOTALS
WERE LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS ALL BUT VERY LOCALIZED SPOTS. SHOULD
ALSO SEE SOME STRATUS AND FOG OVERNIGHT WITH OBSERVATIONS ALREADY
SHOWING SATURATION IS OCCURING OR CLOSE TO OCCURING AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY AND LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE BEHIND
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE DRIER AIR
IS PRESENT AND BETTER FORCING LIKELY TO BE OFF TO THE EAST IN
OHIO...PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN
THE AFTERNOON REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY WILL DEPEND ON HOW UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE CAN GET IN THE AFTERNOON.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U S. THIS WILL
TRANSITION TO A MUCH COOLER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEYOND
THAT...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS MAVMOS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPS FALL EARLY IN
THE WEEK. HIGHS BY TUESDAY LIKELY TO BE A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. TOOK A MOS BLEND ON LOWS. MAY SEE SOME UPPER 40S IN OUTLYING
AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND DECENT TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EAST. A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL PUT CENTRAL INDIANA
BACK INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THEREFORE...DIURNAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS INDICATED BY THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION...CONTINUES TO APPEAR THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE
THINGS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
MAXIMUMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN ONLY THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&


.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 27/0300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
.ISSUED AT 1029 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED ON TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS SHOW
SOME REDEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AT KIND.  LOOKING UPSTREAM STRATUS
AND FOG MAY BE A CONCERN LATER TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PROGRESS
EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING AND INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY MIDNIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED STORMS MAY REDEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY.  OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL END OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS BY LATE SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ061>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN/MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....LEE
AVIATION...JEH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 270435
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1235 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS AND NEAR TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WILL PULL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND
LOWER POPS A BIT AS ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY GOOD AND
RADAR WAS NIL.  RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS...ALTHOUGH THEY
DEVELOP MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...DO NOT SHOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE
AREA TO JUSTIFY KEEPING THE WATCH GOING...AND 24 HOUR STORM TOTALS
WERE LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS ALL BUT VERY LOCALIZED SPOTS. SHOULD
ALSO SEE SOME STRATUS AND FOG OVERNIGHT WITH OBSERVATIONS ALREADY
SHOWING SATURATION IS OCCURING OR CLOSE TO OCCURING AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY AND LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE BEHIND
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE DRIER AIR
IS PRESENT AND BETTER FORCING LIKELY TO BE OFF TO THE EAST IN
OHIO...PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN
THE AFTERNOON REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY WILL DEPEND ON HOW UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE CAN GET IN THE AFTERNOON.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U S. THIS WILL
TRANSITION TO A MUCH COOLER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEYOND
THAT...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS MAVMOS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPS FALL EARLY IN
THE WEEK. HIGHS BY TUESDAY LIKELY TO BE A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. TOOK A MOS BLEND ON LOWS. MAY SEE SOME UPPER 40S IN OUTLYING
AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND DECENT TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EAST. A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL PUT CENTRAL INDIANA
BACK INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THEREFORE...DIURNAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS INDICATED BY THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION...CONTINUES TO APPEAR THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE
THINGS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
MAXIMUMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN ONLY THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&


.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 27/0300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
.ISSUED AT 1029 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED ON TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS SHOW
SOME REDEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AT KIND.  LOOKING UPSTREAM STRATUS
AND FOG MAY BE A CONCERN LATER TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PROGRESS
EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING AND INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY MIDNIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED STORMS MAY REDEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY.  OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL END OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS BY LATE SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ061>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN/MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....LEE
AVIATION...JEH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 270231
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1031 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1029 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND EAST WERE RAPIDLY MOVING INTO
KENTUCKY AND OHIO.  WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES DRIER AIR ALOFT
MAY SPREAD INTO OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT AND CURRENTLY
WEATHER IS QUIET UPSTREAM.

I STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS OF REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS AND THUS WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH
THERE.  OTHERWISE...WILL CANCEL FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS FARTHER NORTH.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE NEAR STEADY TEMPERTURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY AND LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE BEHIND
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE DRIER AIR
IS PRESENT AND BETTER FORCING LIKELY TO BE OFF TO THE EAST IN
OHIO...PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN
THE AFTERNOON REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY WILL DEPEND ON HOW UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE CAN GET IN THE AFTERNOON.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U S. THIS WILL
TRANSITION TO A MUCH COOLER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEYOND
THAT...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS MAVMOS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPS FALL EARLY IN
THE WEEK. HIGHS BY TUESDAY LIKELY TO BE A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. TOOK A MOS BLEND ON LOWS. MAY SEE SOME UPPER 40S IN OUTLYING
AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND DECENT TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EAST. A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL PUT CENTRAL INDIANA
BACK INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THEREFORE...DIURNAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS INDICATED BY THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION...CONTINUES TO APPEAR THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE
THINGS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
MAXIMUMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN ONLY THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&


.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 27/0300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
.ISSUED AT 1029 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED ON TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS SHOW
SOME REDEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AT KIND.  LOOKING UPSTREAM STRATUS
AND FOG MAY BE A CONCERN LATER TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PROGRESS
EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING AND INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY MIDNIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED STORMS MAY REDEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY.  OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL END OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS BY LATE SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ061>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD/JEH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....LEE
AVIATION...JEH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 262255
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
655 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 636 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SEEING A BOWING SEGMENT DEVELOPING WEST OF THE STATE LINE AND HAVE
INCREASED EVENING POPS AS A RESULT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

STRATOCU DECK HAS ADVANCED FURTHER INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WERE
HELPING TO LIMIT TEMP RISES A BIT...BUT STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
PERSISTING WITH INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. TEMPS
WERE GENERALLY LOW TO MID 80S AT 19Z.

FOCUS REMAINS ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT WITH GREATEST
CONCERN ON WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL. FEW MORE
VARIABLES THIS AFTERNOON MAKING FOR A FRUSTRATING LOWER CONFIDENCE
THAN DESIRED WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION AT THIS LATE
STAGE. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITING STRUGGLES RELATED TO
THESE VARIABLES. REGARDLESS OF THE PARTICULARS...SEVERE WEATHER/
FLOOD THREAT REMAINS HIGH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD DECK IN GREATER ABUNDANCE THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED. WHILE THIS IS CUTTING DOWN ON EXPECTED HIGHS BY A FEW
DEGREES...IT APPEARS TO BE HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO THE STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPERIENCED FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. DEWPOINTS HAVE HAD NO DIFFICULTY IN RISING INTO THE
LOWER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND GLANCES TO THE
SOUTHWEST SHOW THE MID 70S DEWPOINTS ARE NOT FAR AWAY. LAPS
SOUNDINGS AND 700MB ANALYSIS INDICATED WARMER AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTING
TO CAP DEVELOPMENT. MESOANALYSIS SHOWING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT ABOVE THE CAP...WITH 3000J/KG+ MLCAPE PRESENT JUST TO OUR
WEST. THE CAP WAS KEEPING A RELATIVE LID ON CONVECTION IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY...AND SUSPECT IT IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE
DIFFICULTIES IN UPWARD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH STORMS OVER
MISSOURI. AS LONG AS THE CAP HOLDS...WHICH STILL IS LIKELY TO BE
UNTIL 23-00Z...HARD TO JUSTIFY MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET TO NEAR 35KTS THIS
EVENING...COMBINED WITH INCREASED BL SHEAR VALUES AS MCV OVER
MISSOURI APPROACHES AND COOLING MAINTAINING ITS DISAPPEARANCE BY MID
EVENING. THETA-E RIDGE REMAINS POINTED TOWARDS THE REGION AND SHOULD
BE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER TODAY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN HOT
TEMPS IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND 80S HERE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO NEW
STORM GROWTH. AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE RAPID
UPWARD CONVECTIVE EXPANSION THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOCUSED FROM 00Z INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING BROAD DRY ADIABATIC FLOW BY
03Z. PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES THIS EVENING...COMBINED WITH THE
FREEZING LEVEL NEAR 15KFT AND A WEST-EAST ORIENTED LOW LEVEL JET
SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. AT THIS
POINT...LIKELY BEST FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-70. WILL INTRODUCE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT
FOCUSED FROM THE I-70 CORRIDOR SOUTH AS A RESULT.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GRADUAL FOCUS TO HEAVIEST
STORMS WILL TRANSITION OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AFTER 06-07Z WITH
COVERAGE DIMINISHING TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

TEMPS...LEANED TOWARDS WARMER MET GUIDANCE AS TEMPS SHOULD NOT GO
ANY LOWER THAN 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY AND LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE BEHIND
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE DRIER AIR
IS PRESENT AND BETTER FORCING LIKELY TO BE OFF TO THE EAST IN
OHIO...PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN
THE AFTERNOON REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY WILL DEPEND ON HOW UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE CAN GET IN THE AFTERNOON.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U S. THIS WILL
TRANSITION TO A MUCH COOLER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEYOND
THAT...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS MAVMOS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPS FALL EARLY IN
THE WEEK. HIGHS BY TUESDAY LIKELY TO BE A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. TOOK A MOS BLEND ON LOWS. MAY SEE SOME UPPER 40S IN OUTLYING
AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND DECENT TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EAST. A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL PUT CENTRAL INDIANA
BACK INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THEREFORE...DIURNAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS INDICATED BY THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION...CONTINUES TO APPEAR THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE
THINGS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
MAXIMUMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN ONLY THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 27/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 655 EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PROGRESS
EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING AND INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY MIDNIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED STORMS MAY REDEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY.  OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL END OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS BY LATE SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR INZ043>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....LEE
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 262255
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
655 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 636 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SEEING A BOWING SEGMENT DEVELOPING WEST OF THE STATE LINE AND HAVE
INCREASED EVENING POPS AS A RESULT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

STRATOCU DECK HAS ADVANCED FURTHER INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WERE
HELPING TO LIMIT TEMP RISES A BIT...BUT STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
PERSISTING WITH INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. TEMPS
WERE GENERALLY LOW TO MID 80S AT 19Z.

FOCUS REMAINS ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT WITH GREATEST
CONCERN ON WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL. FEW MORE
VARIABLES THIS AFTERNOON MAKING FOR A FRUSTRATING LOWER CONFIDENCE
THAN DESIRED WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION AT THIS LATE
STAGE. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITING STRUGGLES RELATED TO
THESE VARIABLES. REGARDLESS OF THE PARTICULARS...SEVERE WEATHER/
FLOOD THREAT REMAINS HIGH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD DECK IN GREATER ABUNDANCE THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED. WHILE THIS IS CUTTING DOWN ON EXPECTED HIGHS BY A FEW
DEGREES...IT APPEARS TO BE HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO THE STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPERIENCED FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. DEWPOINTS HAVE HAD NO DIFFICULTY IN RISING INTO THE
LOWER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND GLANCES TO THE
SOUTHWEST SHOW THE MID 70S DEWPOINTS ARE NOT FAR AWAY. LAPS
SOUNDINGS AND 700MB ANALYSIS INDICATED WARMER AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTING
TO CAP DEVELOPMENT. MESOANALYSIS SHOWING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT ABOVE THE CAP...WITH 3000J/KG+ MLCAPE PRESENT JUST TO OUR
WEST. THE CAP WAS KEEPING A RELATIVE LID ON CONVECTION IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY...AND SUSPECT IT IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE
DIFFICULTIES IN UPWARD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH STORMS OVER
MISSOURI. AS LONG AS THE CAP HOLDS...WHICH STILL IS LIKELY TO BE
UNTIL 23-00Z...HARD TO JUSTIFY MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET TO NEAR 35KTS THIS
EVENING...COMBINED WITH INCREASED BL SHEAR VALUES AS MCV OVER
MISSOURI APPROACHES AND COOLING MAINTAINING ITS DISAPPEARANCE BY MID
EVENING. THETA-E RIDGE REMAINS POINTED TOWARDS THE REGION AND SHOULD
BE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER TODAY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN HOT
TEMPS IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND 80S HERE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO NEW
STORM GROWTH. AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE RAPID
UPWARD CONVECTIVE EXPANSION THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOCUSED FROM 00Z INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING BROAD DRY ADIABATIC FLOW BY
03Z. PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES THIS EVENING...COMBINED WITH THE
FREEZING LEVEL NEAR 15KFT AND A WEST-EAST ORIENTED LOW LEVEL JET
SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. AT THIS
POINT...LIKELY BEST FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-70. WILL INTRODUCE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT
FOCUSED FROM THE I-70 CORRIDOR SOUTH AS A RESULT.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GRADUAL FOCUS TO HEAVIEST
STORMS WILL TRANSITION OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AFTER 06-07Z WITH
COVERAGE DIMINISHING TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

TEMPS...LEANED TOWARDS WARMER MET GUIDANCE AS TEMPS SHOULD NOT GO
ANY LOWER THAN 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY AND LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE BEHIND
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE DRIER AIR
IS PRESENT AND BETTER FORCING LIKELY TO BE OFF TO THE EAST IN
OHIO...PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN
THE AFTERNOON REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY WILL DEPEND ON HOW UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE CAN GET IN THE AFTERNOON.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U S. THIS WILL
TRANSITION TO A MUCH COOLER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEYOND
THAT...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS MAVMOS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPS FALL EARLY IN
THE WEEK. HIGHS BY TUESDAY LIKELY TO BE A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. TOOK A MOS BLEND ON LOWS. MAY SEE SOME UPPER 40S IN OUTLYING
AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND DECENT TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EAST. A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL PUT CENTRAL INDIANA
BACK INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THEREFORE...DIURNAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS INDICATED BY THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION...CONTINUES TO APPEAR THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE
THINGS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
MAXIMUMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN ONLY THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 27/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 655 EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PROGRESS
EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING AND INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY MIDNIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED STORMS MAY REDEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY.  OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL END OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS BY LATE SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR INZ043>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....LEE
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 262236
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
636 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 636 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SEEING A BOWING SEGMENT DEVELOPING WEST OF THE STATE LINE AND HAVE
INCREASED EVENING POPS AS A RESULT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

STRATOCU DECK HAS ADVANCED FURTHER INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WERE
HELPING TO LIMIT TEMP RISES A BIT...BUT STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
PERSISTING WITH INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. TEMPS
WERE GENERALLY LOW TO MID 80S AT 19Z.

FOCUS REMAINS ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT WITH GREATEST
CONCERN ON WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL. FEW MORE
VARIABLES THIS AFTERNOON MAKING FOR A FRUSTRATING LOWER CONFIDENCE
THAN DESIRED WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION AT THIS LATE
STAGE. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITING STRUGGLES RELATED TO
THESE VARIABLES. REGARDLESS OF THE PARTICULARS...SEVERE WEATHER/
FLOOD THREAT REMAINS HIGH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD DECK IN GREATER ABUNDANCE THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED. WHILE THIS IS CUTTING DOWN ON EXPECTED HIGHS BY A FEW
DEGREES...IT APPEARS TO BE HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO THE STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPERIENCED FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. DEWPOINTS HAVE HAD NO DIFFICULTY IN RISING INTO THE
LOWER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND GLANCES TO THE
SOUTHWEST SHOW THE MID 70S DEWPOINTS ARE NOT FAR AWAY. LAPS
SOUNDINGS AND 700MB ANALYSIS INDICATED WARMER AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTING
TO CAP DEVELOPMENT. MESOANALYSIS SHOWING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT ABOVE THE CAP...WITH 3000J/KG+ MLCAPE PRESENT JUST TO OUR
WEST. THE CAP WAS KEEPING A RELATIVE LID ON CONVECTION IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY...AND SUSPECT IT IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE
DIFFICULTIES IN UPWARD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH STORMS OVER
MISSOURI. AS LONG AS THE CAP HOLDS...WHICH STILL IS LIKELY TO BE
UNTIL 23-00Z...HARD TO JUSTIFY MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET TO NEAR 35KTS THIS
EVENING...COMBINED WITH INCREASED BL SHEAR VALUES AS MCV OVER
MISSOURI APPROACHES AND COOLING MAINTAINING ITS DISAPPEARANCE BY MID
EVENING. THETA-E RIDGE REMAINS POINTED TOWARDS THE REGION AND SHOULD
BE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER TODAY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN HOT
TEMPS IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND 80S HERE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO NEW
STORM GROWTH. AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE RAPID
UPWARD CONVECTIVE EXPANSION THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOCUSED FROM 00Z INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING BROAD DRY ADIABATIC FLOW BY
03Z. PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES THIS EVENING...COMBINED WITH THE
FREEZING LEVEL NEAR 15KFT AND A WEST-EAST ORIENTED LOW LEVEL JET
SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. AT THIS
POINT...LIKELY BEST FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-70. WILL INTRODUCE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT
FOCUSED FROM THE I-70 CORRIDOR SOUTH AS A RESULT.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GRADUAL FOCUS TO HEAVIEST
STORMS WILL TRANSITION OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AFTER 06-07Z WITH
COVERAGE DIMINISHING TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

TEMPS...LEANED TOWARDS WARMER MET GUIDANCE AS TEMPS SHOULD NOT GO
ANY LOWER THAN 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY AND LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE BEHIND
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE DRIER AIR
IS PRESENT AND BETTER FORCING LIKELY TO BE OFF TO THE EAST IN
OHIO...PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN
THE AFTERNOON REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY WILL DEPEND ON HOW UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE CAN GET IN THE AFTERNOON.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U S. THIS WILL
TRANSITION TO A MUCH COOLER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEYOND
THAT...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS MAVMOS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPS FALL EARLY IN
THE WEEK. HIGHS BY TUESDAY LIKELY TO BE A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. TOOK A MOS BLEND ON LOWS. MAY SEE SOME UPPER 40S IN OUTLYING
AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND DECENT TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EAST. A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL PUT CENTRAL INDIANA
BACK INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THEREFORE...DIURNAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS INDICATED BY THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION...CONTINUES TO APPEAR THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE
THINGS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
MAXIMUMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN ONLY THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 26/2100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT. PORTION OF PREVIOUS AVIATION
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MVFR CEILINGS OR LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL BE THE RULE WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF
STORMS ENTERING CENTRAL INDIANA. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
STORMS...AND ASSOCIATED MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY
RAIN...WILL IMPACT KLAF BETWEEN 23-01Z AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS IMPACTING KIND AROUND 01-03Z. TIMING WILL
MORE THAN LIKELY NEED TO BE REFINED AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS.

TIMED THE EXIT OF STORMS AND RETURN FOR THE 07-09Z TIME FRAME WITH
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN JUST A TAD MORE
WESTERLY REMAINING AROUND 5-10 KTS.

HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 30 HOUR TAF FOR
KIND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE TO END THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF THESE STORMS IS LIKELY CONTINGENT ON THE
CONVECTIVE SCENARIO THAT PLAYS OUT TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR INZ043>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....LEE
AVIATION...LEE/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 262033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
432 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

STRATOCU DECK HAS ADVANCED FURTHER INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WERE
HELPING TO LIMIT TEMP RISES A BIT...BUT STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
PERSISTING WITH INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. TEMPS
WERE GENERALLY LOW TO MID 80S AT 19Z.

FOCUS REMAINS ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT WITH GREATEST
CONCERN ON WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL. FEW MORE
VARIABLES THIS AFTERNOON MAKING FOR A FRUSTRATING LOWER CONFIDENCE
THAN DESIRED WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION AT THIS LATE
STAGE. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITING STRUGGLES RELATED TO
THESE VARIABLES. REGARDLESS OF THE PARTICULARS...SEVERE WEATHER/
FLOOD THREAT REMAINS HIGH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD DECK IN GREATER ABUNDANCE THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED. WHILE THIS IS CUTTING DOWN ON EXPECTED HIGHS BY A FEW
DEGREES...IT APPEARS TO BE HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO THE STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPERIENCED FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. DEWPOINTS HAVE HAD NO DIFFICULTY IN RISING INTO THE
LOWER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND GLANCES TO THE
SOUTHWEST SHOW THE MID 70S DEWPOINTS ARE NOT FAR AWAY. LAPS
SOUNDINGS AND 700MB ANALYSIS INDICATED WARMER AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTING
TO CAP DEVELOPMENT. MESOANALYSIS SHOWING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT ABOVE THE CAP...WITH 3000J/KG+ MLCAPE PRESENT JUST TO OUR
WEST. THE CAP WAS KEEPING A RELATIVE LID ON CONVECTION IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY...AND SUSPECT IT IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE
DIFFICULTIES IN UPWARD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH STORMS OVER
MISSOURI. AS LONG AS THE CAP HOLDS...WHICH STILL IS LIKELY TO BE
UNTIL 23-00Z...HARD TO JUSTIFY MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET TO NEAR 35KTS THIS
EVENING...COMBINED WITH INCREASED BL SHEAR VALUES AS MCV OVER
MISSOURI APPROACHES AND COOLING MAINTAINING ITS DISAPPEARANCE BY MID
EVENING. THETA-E RIDGE REMAINS POINTED TOWARDS THE REGION AND SHOULD
BE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER TODAY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN HOT
TEMPS IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND 80S HERE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO NEW
STORM GROWTH. AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE RAPID
UPWARD CONVECTIVE EXPANSION THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOCUSED FROM 00Z INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING BROAD DRY ADIABATIC FLOW BY
03Z. PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES THIS EVENING...COMBINED WITH THE
FREEZING LEVEL NEAR 15KFT AND A WEST-EAST ORIENTED LOW LEVEL JET
SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. AT THIS
POINT...LIKELY BEST FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-70. WILL INTRODUCE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT
FOCUSED FROM THE I-70 CORRIDOR SOUTH AS A RESULT.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GRADUAL FOCUS TO HEAVIEST
STORMS WILL TRANSITION OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AFTER 06-07Z WITH
COVERAGE DIMINISHING TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

TEMPS...LEANED TOWARDS WARMER MET GUIDANCE AS TEMPS SHOULD NOT GO
ANY LOWER THAN 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY AND LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE BEHIND
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE DRIER AIR
IS PRESENT AND BETTER FORCING LIKELY TO BE OFF TO THE EAST IN
OHIO...PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN
THE AFTERNOON REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY WILL DEPEND ON HOW UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE CAN GET IN THE AFTERNOON.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U S. THIS WILL
TRANSITION TO A MUCH COOLER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEYOND
THAT...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS MAVMOS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPS FALL EARLY IN
THE WEEK. HIGHS BY TUESDAY LIKELY TO BE A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. TOOK A MOS BLEND ON LOWS. MAY SEE SOME UPPER 40S IN OUTLYING
AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND DECENT TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EAST. A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL PUT CENTRAL INDIANA
BACK INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THEREFORE...DIURNAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS INDICATED BY THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION...CONTINUES TO APPEAR THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE
THINGS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
MAXIMUMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN ONLY THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 26/2100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT. PORTION OF PREVIOUS AVIATION
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MVFR CEILINGS OR LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL BE THE RULE WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF
STORMS ENTERING CENTRAL INDIANA. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
STORMS...AND ASSOCIATED MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY
RAIN...WILL IMPACT KLAF BETWEEN 23-01Z AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS IMPACTING KIND AROUND 01-03Z. TIMING WILL
MORE THAN LIKELY NEED TO BE REFINED AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS.

TIMED THE EXIT OF STORMS AND RETURN FOR THE 07-09Z TIME FRAME WITH
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN JUST A TAD MORE
WESTERLY REMAINING AROUND 5-10 KTS.

HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 30 HOUR TAF FOR
KIND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE TO END THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF THESE STORMS IS LIKELY CONTINGENT ON THE
CONVECTIVE SCENARIO THAT PLAYS OUT TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR INZ043>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....LEE
AVIATION...LEE/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 262033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
432 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

STRATOCU DECK HAS ADVANCED FURTHER INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WERE
HELPING TO LIMIT TEMP RISES A BIT...BUT STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
PERSISTING WITH INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. TEMPS
WERE GENERALLY LOW TO MID 80S AT 19Z.

FOCUS REMAINS ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT WITH GREATEST
CONCERN ON WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL. FEW MORE
VARIABLES THIS AFTERNOON MAKING FOR A FRUSTRATING LOWER CONFIDENCE
THAN DESIRED WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION AT THIS LATE
STAGE. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITING STRUGGLES RELATED TO
THESE VARIABLES. REGARDLESS OF THE PARTICULARS...SEVERE WEATHER/
FLOOD THREAT REMAINS HIGH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD DECK IN GREATER ABUNDANCE THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED. WHILE THIS IS CUTTING DOWN ON EXPECTED HIGHS BY A FEW
DEGREES...IT APPEARS TO BE HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO THE STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPERIENCED FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. DEWPOINTS HAVE HAD NO DIFFICULTY IN RISING INTO THE
LOWER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND GLANCES TO THE
SOUTHWEST SHOW THE MID 70S DEWPOINTS ARE NOT FAR AWAY. LAPS
SOUNDINGS AND 700MB ANALYSIS INDICATED WARMER AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTING
TO CAP DEVELOPMENT. MESOANALYSIS SHOWING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT ABOVE THE CAP...WITH 3000J/KG+ MLCAPE PRESENT JUST TO OUR
WEST. THE CAP WAS KEEPING A RELATIVE LID ON CONVECTION IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY...AND SUSPECT IT IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE
DIFFICULTIES IN UPWARD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH STORMS OVER
MISSOURI. AS LONG AS THE CAP HOLDS...WHICH STILL IS LIKELY TO BE
UNTIL 23-00Z...HARD TO JUSTIFY MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET TO NEAR 35KTS THIS
EVENING...COMBINED WITH INCREASED BL SHEAR VALUES AS MCV OVER
MISSOURI APPROACHES AND COOLING MAINTAINING ITS DISAPPEARANCE BY MID
EVENING. THETA-E RIDGE REMAINS POINTED TOWARDS THE REGION AND SHOULD
BE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER TODAY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN HOT
TEMPS IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND 80S HERE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO NEW
STORM GROWTH. AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE RAPID
UPWARD CONVECTIVE EXPANSION THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOCUSED FROM 00Z INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING BROAD DRY ADIABATIC FLOW BY
03Z. PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES THIS EVENING...COMBINED WITH THE
FREEZING LEVEL NEAR 15KFT AND A WEST-EAST ORIENTED LOW LEVEL JET
SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. AT THIS
POINT...LIKELY BEST FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-70. WILL INTRODUCE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT
FOCUSED FROM THE I-70 CORRIDOR SOUTH AS A RESULT.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GRADUAL FOCUS TO HEAVIEST
STORMS WILL TRANSITION OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AFTER 06-07Z WITH
COVERAGE DIMINISHING TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

TEMPS...LEANED TOWARDS WARMER MET GUIDANCE AS TEMPS SHOULD NOT GO
ANY LOWER THAN 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY AND LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE BEHIND
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE DRIER AIR
IS PRESENT AND BETTER FORCING LIKELY TO BE OFF TO THE EAST IN
OHIO...PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN
THE AFTERNOON REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY WILL DEPEND ON HOW UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE CAN GET IN THE AFTERNOON.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U S. THIS WILL
TRANSITION TO A MUCH COOLER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEYOND
THAT...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS MAVMOS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPS FALL EARLY IN
THE WEEK. HIGHS BY TUESDAY LIKELY TO BE A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. TOOK A MOS BLEND ON LOWS. MAY SEE SOME UPPER 40S IN OUTLYING
AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND DECENT TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EAST. A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL PUT CENTRAL INDIANA
BACK INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THEREFORE...DIURNAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS INDICATED BY THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION...CONTINUES TO APPEAR THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE
THINGS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
MAXIMUMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN ONLY THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 26/2100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT. PORTION OF PREVIOUS AVIATION
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MVFR CEILINGS OR LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL BE THE RULE WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF
STORMS ENTERING CENTRAL INDIANA. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
STORMS...AND ASSOCIATED MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY
RAIN...WILL IMPACT KLAF BETWEEN 23-01Z AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS IMPACTING KIND AROUND 01-03Z. TIMING WILL
MORE THAN LIKELY NEED TO BE REFINED AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS.

TIMED THE EXIT OF STORMS AND RETURN FOR THE 07-09Z TIME FRAME WITH
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN JUST A TAD MORE
WESTERLY REMAINING AROUND 5-10 KTS.

HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 30 HOUR TAF FOR
KIND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE TO END THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF THESE STORMS IS LIKELY CONTINGENT ON THE
CONVECTIVE SCENARIO THAT PLAYS OUT TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR INZ043>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....LEE
AVIATION...LEE/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 262005
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
405 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

STRATOCU DECK HAS ADVANCED FURTHER INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WERE
HELPING TO LIMIT TEMP RISES A BIT...BUT STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
PERSISTING WITH INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. TEMPS
WERE GENERALLY LOW TO MID 80S AT 19Z.

FOCUS REMAINS ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT WITH GREATEST
CONCERN ON WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL. FEW MORE
VARIABLES THIS AFTERNOON MAKING FOR A FRUSTRATING LOWER CONFIDENCE
THAN DESIRED WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION AT THIS LATE
STAGE. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITING STRUGGLES RELATED TO
THESE VARIABLES. REGARDLESS OF THE PARTICULARS...SEVERE WEATHER/
FLOOD THREAT REMAINS HIGH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD DECK IN GREATER ABUNDANCE THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED. WHILE THIS IS CUTTING DOWN ON EXPECTED HIGHS BY A FEW
DEGREES...IT APPEARS TO BE HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO THE STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPERIENCED FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. DEWPOINTS HAVE HAD NO DIFFICULTY IN RISING INTO THE
LOWER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND GLANCES TO THE
SOUTHWEST SHOW THE MID 70S DEWPOINTS ARE NOT FAR AWAY. LAPS
SOUNDINGS AND 700MB ANALYSIS INDICATED WARMER AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTING
TO CAP DEVELOPMENT. MESOANALYSIS SHOWING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT ABOVE THE CAP...WITH 3000J/KG+ MLCAPE PRESENT JUST TO OUR
WEST. THE CAP WAS KEEPING A RELATIVE LID ON CONVECTION IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY...AND SUSPECT IT IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE
DIFFICULTIES IN UPWARD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH STORMS OVER
MISSOURI. AS LONG AS THE CAP HOLDS...WHICH STILL IS LIKELY TO BE
UNTIL 23-00Z...HARD TO JUSTIFY MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET TO NEAR 35KTS THIS
EVENING...COMBINED WITH INCREASED BL SHEAR VALUES AS MCV OVER
MISSOURI APPROACHES AND COOLING MAINTAINING ITS DISAPPEARANCE BY MID
EVENING. THETA-E RIDGE REMAINS POINTED TOWARDS THE REGION AND SHOULD
BE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER TODAY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN HOT
TEMPS IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND 80S HERE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO NEW
STORM GROWTH. AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE RAPID
UPWARD CONVECTIVE EXPANSION THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOCUSED FROM 00Z INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING BROAD DRY ADIABATIC FLOW BY
03Z. PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES THIS EVENING...COMBINED WITH THE
FREEZING LEVEL NEAR 15KFT AND A WEST-EAST ORIENTED LOW LEVEL JET
SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. AT THIS
POINT...LIKELY BEST FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-70. WILL INTRODUCE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT
FOCUSED FROM THE I-70 CORRIDOR SOUTH AS A RESULT.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GRADUAL FOCUS TO HEAVIEST
STORMS WILL TRANSITION OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AFTER 06-07Z WITH
COVERAGE DIMINISHING TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

TEMPS...LEANED TOWARDS WARMER MET GUIDANCE AS TEMPS SHOULD NOT GO
ANY LOWER THAN 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY AND LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE BEHIND
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE DRIER AIR
IS PRESENT AND BETTER FORCING LIKELY TO BE OFF TO THE EAST IN
OHIO...PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN
THE AFTERNOON REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY WILL DEPEND ON HOW UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE CAN GET IN THE AFTERNOON.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U S. THIS WILL
TRANSITION TO A MUCH COOLER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEYOND
THAT...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS MAVMOS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPS FALL EARLY IN
THE WEEK. HIGHS BY TUESDAY LIKELY TO BE A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. TOOK A MOS BLEND ON LOWS. MAY SEE SOME UPPER 40S IN OUTLYING
AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND DECENT TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EAST. A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL PUT CENTRAL INDIANA
BACK INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THEREFORE...DIURNAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS INDICATED BY THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION...CONTINUES TO APPEAR THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE
THINGS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
MAXIMUMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN ONLY THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 26/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO
THE TIMING OF STORMS ENTERING CENTRAL INDIANA. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT STORMS...AND ASSOCIATED MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVY RAIN...WILL IMPACT KLAF BETWEEN 23-01Z AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO
THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS IMPACTING KIND AROUND 01-03Z. TIMING
WILL MORE THAN LIKELY NEED TO BE REFINED AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS TO
THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS.

TIMED THE EXIT OF STORMS AND RETURN FOR THE 07-09Z TIME FRAME WITH
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN JUST A TAD MORE
WESTERLY REMAINING AROUND 5-10 KTS.

HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 30 HOUR TAF FOR
KIND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE TO END THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF THESE STORMS IS LIKELY CONTINGENT ON THE
CONVECTIVE SCENARIO THAT PLAYS OUT TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR INZ043>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....LEE
AVIATION...LEE

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 262005
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
405 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

STRATOCU DECK HAS ADVANCED FURTHER INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WERE
HELPING TO LIMIT TEMP RISES A BIT...BUT STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
PERSISTING WITH INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. TEMPS
WERE GENERALLY LOW TO MID 80S AT 19Z.

FOCUS REMAINS ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT WITH GREATEST
CONCERN ON WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL. FEW MORE
VARIABLES THIS AFTERNOON MAKING FOR A FRUSTRATING LOWER CONFIDENCE
THAN DESIRED WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION AT THIS LATE
STAGE. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITING STRUGGLES RELATED TO
THESE VARIABLES. REGARDLESS OF THE PARTICULARS...SEVERE WEATHER/
FLOOD THREAT REMAINS HIGH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD DECK IN GREATER ABUNDANCE THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED. WHILE THIS IS CUTTING DOWN ON EXPECTED HIGHS BY A FEW
DEGREES...IT APPEARS TO BE HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO THE STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPERIENCED FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. DEWPOINTS HAVE HAD NO DIFFICULTY IN RISING INTO THE
LOWER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND GLANCES TO THE
SOUTHWEST SHOW THE MID 70S DEWPOINTS ARE NOT FAR AWAY. LAPS
SOUNDINGS AND 700MB ANALYSIS INDICATED WARMER AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTING
TO CAP DEVELOPMENT. MESOANALYSIS SHOWING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT ABOVE THE CAP...WITH 3000J/KG+ MLCAPE PRESENT JUST TO OUR
WEST. THE CAP WAS KEEPING A RELATIVE LID ON CONVECTION IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY...AND SUSPECT IT IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE
DIFFICULTIES IN UPWARD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH STORMS OVER
MISSOURI. AS LONG AS THE CAP HOLDS...WHICH STILL IS LIKELY TO BE
UNTIL 23-00Z...HARD TO JUSTIFY MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET TO NEAR 35KTS THIS
EVENING...COMBINED WITH INCREASED BL SHEAR VALUES AS MCV OVER
MISSOURI APPROACHES AND COOLING MAINTAINING ITS DISAPPEARANCE BY MID
EVENING. THETA-E RIDGE REMAINS POINTED TOWARDS THE REGION AND SHOULD
BE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER TODAY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN HOT
TEMPS IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND 80S HERE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO NEW
STORM GROWTH. AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE RAPID
UPWARD CONVECTIVE EXPANSION THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOCUSED FROM 00Z INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING BROAD DRY ADIABATIC FLOW BY
03Z. PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES THIS EVENING...COMBINED WITH THE
FREEZING LEVEL NEAR 15KFT AND A WEST-EAST ORIENTED LOW LEVEL JET
SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. AT THIS
POINT...LIKELY BEST FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-70. WILL INTRODUCE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT
FOCUSED FROM THE I-70 CORRIDOR SOUTH AS A RESULT.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GRADUAL FOCUS TO HEAVIEST
STORMS WILL TRANSITION OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AFTER 06-07Z WITH
COVERAGE DIMINISHING TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

TEMPS...LEANED TOWARDS WARMER MET GUIDANCE AS TEMPS SHOULD NOT GO
ANY LOWER THAN 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY AND LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE BEHIND
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE DRIER AIR
IS PRESENT AND BETTER FORCING LIKELY TO BE OFF TO THE EAST IN
OHIO...PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN
THE AFTERNOON REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY WILL DEPEND ON HOW UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE CAN GET IN THE AFTERNOON.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U S. THIS WILL
TRANSITION TO A MUCH COOLER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEYOND
THAT...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS MAVMOS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPS FALL EARLY IN
THE WEEK. HIGHS BY TUESDAY LIKELY TO BE A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. TOOK A MOS BLEND ON LOWS. MAY SEE SOME UPPER 40S IN OUTLYING
AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND DECENT TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EAST. A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL PUT CENTRAL INDIANA
BACK INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THEREFORE...DIURNAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS INDICATED BY THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION...CONTINUES TO APPEAR THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE
THINGS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
MAXIMUMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN ONLY THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 26/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO
THE TIMING OF STORMS ENTERING CENTRAL INDIANA. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT STORMS...AND ASSOCIATED MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVY RAIN...WILL IMPACT KLAF BETWEEN 23-01Z AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO
THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS IMPACTING KIND AROUND 01-03Z. TIMING
WILL MORE THAN LIKELY NEED TO BE REFINED AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS TO
THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS.

TIMED THE EXIT OF STORMS AND RETURN FOR THE 07-09Z TIME FRAME WITH
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN JUST A TAD MORE
WESTERLY REMAINING AROUND 5-10 KTS.

HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 30 HOUR TAF FOR
KIND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE TO END THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF THESE STORMS IS LIKELY CONTINGENT ON THE
CONVECTIVE SCENARIO THAT PLAYS OUT TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR INZ043>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....LEE
AVIATION...LEE

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 261831
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
231 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...

THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT COLLIDES WITH
WARM UNSTABLE AIR. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING
ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER OUT...MUCH COOLER AIR
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1158 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ALONG WARM FRONT THAT IMPACTED CENTRAL INDIANA
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
SUNSHINE HAS QUICKLY RETURNED WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPS AT 15Z WERE RAPIDLY RISING INTO
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FORECAST THINKING REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH REGARDS TO THE
REST OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. FOCUS FOR THE UPDATE WILL BE TO
EMPLOY ADDITIONAL DETAIL FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 15 HOURS.

MESOANALYSIS INDICATING 700MB TEMPS QUICKLY WARMING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH 10C+ AIR EXPANDING EAST. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE CAP ESSENTIALLY SHUTTING DOWN ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE THREAT OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED STORMS. AREA OF
CLOUDS FROM NORTHERN INDIANA BACK W/SW INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVELY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A SURFACE WAVE BACK
OVER EASTERN KANSAS. THESE CLOUDS MAY LIMIT SUNSHINE A BIT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THIS IS
LIKELY TO DO LITTLE TO DETER HEATING AND THE EXPANSION OF THE
MUGGY AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DEWPOINTS OVER THE
OZARKS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY HAVE BEEN STEADILY CLIMBING ALL
MORNING...WITH 70F+ DEWPOINTS POISED TO ARRIVE INTO THE LOWER
WABASH VALLEY SHORTLY. THIS AIRMASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70-75 RANGE BY
LATE DAY. HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S ARE VERY
POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY BY LATE DAY.

THE FEATURE IN QUESTION FOR THE EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT IS
A WELL DEFINED MCV TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS MORNING.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THIS EVENING...COMING INTO
CONTACT WITH AN INCREASINGLY AND HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EXPECT A RAPID UPTICK IN STORMS TO OUR
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH IMPACTS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FROM 23-00Z THROUGH 06Z AS THE CAP DIMINISHES
AND THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS TAPPED. SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE STRUGGLING WITH THE DETAILS...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THE
SAME WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE FOR THE
EVENING AND EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO
AN MCS AS THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES WITH FLOODING BECOMING
AN INCREASING THREAT IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE CONCERNS. SHOULD
SEE THE WORST OF THE STORMS SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT.

ONCE AGAIN...MAIN THREATS WITH STORMS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL
BE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...FLOODING RAINS AND CONSTANT
LIGHTNING. THE PRESENCE OF HIGHER BL SHEAR/STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES IN ADDITION TO INTERACTING MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
WILL POSE A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY EVENING.

A RATHER STRONG UPPER LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND COMBINE WITH REMNANT BOUNDARIES AT THE SURFACE TO
CREATE ANOTHER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WHICH WILL BE UNDER
PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY AS BEST LIFT FROM UPPER WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
IN THE MON 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME ONCE AGAIN AS A 90 PLUS 300 MB JET
ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER LOW.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END AFTER MON
06Z WITH LOSS OF DYNAMICS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW...BUT NO ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.

ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ONCE
AGAIN...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. HOWEVER...MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND DECENT TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EAST. A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL PUT CENTRAL INDIANA
BACK INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THEREFORE...DIURNAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS INDICATED BY THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION...CONTINUES TO APPEAR THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE
THINGS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
MAXIMUMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN ONLY THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 26/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO
THE TIMING OF STORMS ENTERING CENTRAL INDIANA. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT STORMS...AND ASSOCIATED MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVY RAIN...WILL IMPACT KLAF BETWEEN 23-01Z AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO
THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS IMPACTING KIND AROUND 01-03Z. TIMING
WILL MORE THAN LIKELY NEED TO BE REFINED AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS TO
THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS.

TIMED THE EXIT OF STORMS AND RETURN FOR THE 07-09Z TIME FRAME WITH
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN JUST A TAD MORE
WESTERLY REMAINING AROUND 5-10 KTS.

HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 30 HOUR TAF FOR
KIND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE TO END THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF THESE STORMS IS LIKELY CONTINGENT ON THE
CONVECTIVE SCENARIO THAT PLAYS OUT TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....LEE
AVIATION...LEE

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 261831
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
231 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...

THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT COLLIDES WITH
WARM UNSTABLE AIR. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING
ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER OUT...MUCH COOLER AIR
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1158 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ALONG WARM FRONT THAT IMPACTED CENTRAL INDIANA
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
SUNSHINE HAS QUICKLY RETURNED WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPS AT 15Z WERE RAPIDLY RISING INTO
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FORECAST THINKING REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH REGARDS TO THE
REST OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. FOCUS FOR THE UPDATE WILL BE TO
EMPLOY ADDITIONAL DETAIL FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 15 HOURS.

MESOANALYSIS INDICATING 700MB TEMPS QUICKLY WARMING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH 10C+ AIR EXPANDING EAST. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE CAP ESSENTIALLY SHUTTING DOWN ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE THREAT OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED STORMS. AREA OF
CLOUDS FROM NORTHERN INDIANA BACK W/SW INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVELY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A SURFACE WAVE BACK
OVER EASTERN KANSAS. THESE CLOUDS MAY LIMIT SUNSHINE A BIT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THIS IS
LIKELY TO DO LITTLE TO DETER HEATING AND THE EXPANSION OF THE
MUGGY AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DEWPOINTS OVER THE
OZARKS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY HAVE BEEN STEADILY CLIMBING ALL
MORNING...WITH 70F+ DEWPOINTS POISED TO ARRIVE INTO THE LOWER
WABASH VALLEY SHORTLY. THIS AIRMASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70-75 RANGE BY
LATE DAY. HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S ARE VERY
POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY BY LATE DAY.

THE FEATURE IN QUESTION FOR THE EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT IS
A WELL DEFINED MCV TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS MORNING.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THIS EVENING...COMING INTO
CONTACT WITH AN INCREASINGLY AND HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EXPECT A RAPID UPTICK IN STORMS TO OUR
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH IMPACTS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FROM 23-00Z THROUGH 06Z AS THE CAP DIMINISHES
AND THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS TAPPED. SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE STRUGGLING WITH THE DETAILS...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THE
SAME WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE FOR THE
EVENING AND EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO
AN MCS AS THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES WITH FLOODING BECOMING
AN INCREASING THREAT IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE CONCERNS. SHOULD
SEE THE WORST OF THE STORMS SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT.

ONCE AGAIN...MAIN THREATS WITH STORMS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL
BE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...FLOODING RAINS AND CONSTANT
LIGHTNING. THE PRESENCE OF HIGHER BL SHEAR/STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES IN ADDITION TO INTERACTING MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
WILL POSE A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY EVENING.

A RATHER STRONG UPPER LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND COMBINE WITH REMNANT BOUNDARIES AT THE SURFACE TO
CREATE ANOTHER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WHICH WILL BE UNDER
PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY AS BEST LIFT FROM UPPER WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
IN THE MON 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME ONCE AGAIN AS A 90 PLUS 300 MB JET
ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER LOW.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END AFTER MON
06Z WITH LOSS OF DYNAMICS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW...BUT NO ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.

ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ONCE
AGAIN...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. HOWEVER...MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND DECENT TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EAST. A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL PUT CENTRAL INDIANA
BACK INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THEREFORE...DIURNAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS INDICATED BY THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION...CONTINUES TO APPEAR THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE
THINGS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
MAXIMUMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN ONLY THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 26/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO
THE TIMING OF STORMS ENTERING CENTRAL INDIANA. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT STORMS...AND ASSOCIATED MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVY RAIN...WILL IMPACT KLAF BETWEEN 23-01Z AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO
THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS IMPACTING KIND AROUND 01-03Z. TIMING
WILL MORE THAN LIKELY NEED TO BE REFINED AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS TO
THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS.

TIMED THE EXIT OF STORMS AND RETURN FOR THE 07-09Z TIME FRAME WITH
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN JUST A TAD MORE
WESTERLY REMAINING AROUND 5-10 KTS.

HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 30 HOUR TAF FOR
KIND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE TO END THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF THESE STORMS IS LIKELY CONTINGENT ON THE
CONVECTIVE SCENARIO THAT PLAYS OUT TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....LEE
AVIATION...LEE

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





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