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000
FXUS63 KIND 260228
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
927 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK BEFORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHES
AND BRINGS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND AND BEYOND. AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLING WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

EXPECT CLOUDS TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND ERODE SOME BY
MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...TRENDS AND GENERAL UPPER
PATTERN. THIS IS SLOWER THAN MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS ALONG WITH
WARM ADVECTION STARING UP SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FROM
COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT AND USED A GUIDANCE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND POPS/PRECIP TYPE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACKING AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE THROUGH JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
THIS SHOULD BRING SOME UPPER FORCING TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN AT THE SURFACE DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW
ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING FOR THE COLUMN TO QUICKLY DROP BELOW
FREEZING AND ALLOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. THUS INCLUDED A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND BROUGHT IT TO THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES BY EVENING. AFTER 0Z
HAVE SNOW AS ONLY PRECIP TYPE. WITH THE DRY AIR...WARM GROUND...AND
NOT MUCH FORCING AT LOW LEVELS THINK ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT...ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THE BEST CONDITIONS
FOR PRECIP WILL EXIST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND
INCREASED TO LIKELY POPS THERE AFTER 0Z. ALL MAJOR OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS KEEP QPF OUT OF NORTHEAST HALF OF AREA SO TRENDED POPS
DOWN QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. BY THURSDAY THE WAVE WILL BE
THROUGH BUT COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WENT NEAR MOS CONSENSUS. HOWEVER FOR
WEDNESDAY LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET GUIDANCE NUMBERS THAT WERE CLOSER
TO THE MIDDLE OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS FOR BOTH GFS AND ECM WITH MAV
NUMBERS LOOKING TOO WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 209 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL START OUT VERY QUIET WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHICH WILL BEGIN IMPACTING CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH RAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND APPEARS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH KEEPS RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND MORE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS (AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW WEEKS) STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THIS WEEKEND
WITH AT OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES!

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 927 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS 015-020 HOLDING FIRM ACROSS THE AREA. BEEN SOME
EROSION OF THE CEILINGS OVER ILLINOIS...BUT THIS APPEARS TO HAVE
SLOWED BASED ON SATELLITE LOOP.

MODELS INDICATE A STRONG INVERSION AROUND 025 WHICH WILL PROBABLY
LAST WELL INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A LIGHT GRADIENT
SUGGESTS THE LOWER CEILINGS MAY LINGER FOR AWHILE. SHORT TERM MODEL
DATA SUGGEST SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
KHUF/KBMG...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE FOR NOW.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 260228
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
927 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK BEFORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHES
AND BRINGS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND AND BEYOND. AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLING WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

EXPECT CLOUDS TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND ERODE SOME BY
MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...TRENDS AND GENERAL UPPER
PATTERN. THIS IS SLOWER THAN MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS ALONG WITH
WARM ADVECTION STARING UP SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FROM
COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT AND USED A GUIDANCE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND POPS/PRECIP TYPE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACKING AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE THROUGH JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
THIS SHOULD BRING SOME UPPER FORCING TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN AT THE SURFACE DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW
ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING FOR THE COLUMN TO QUICKLY DROP BELOW
FREEZING AND ALLOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. THUS INCLUDED A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND BROUGHT IT TO THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES BY EVENING. AFTER 0Z
HAVE SNOW AS ONLY PRECIP TYPE. WITH THE DRY AIR...WARM GROUND...AND
NOT MUCH FORCING AT LOW LEVELS THINK ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT...ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THE BEST CONDITIONS
FOR PRECIP WILL EXIST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND
INCREASED TO LIKELY POPS THERE AFTER 0Z. ALL MAJOR OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS KEEP QPF OUT OF NORTHEAST HALF OF AREA SO TRENDED POPS
DOWN QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. BY THURSDAY THE WAVE WILL BE
THROUGH BUT COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WENT NEAR MOS CONSENSUS. HOWEVER FOR
WEDNESDAY LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET GUIDANCE NUMBERS THAT WERE CLOSER
TO THE MIDDLE OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS FOR BOTH GFS AND ECM WITH MAV
NUMBERS LOOKING TOO WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 209 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL START OUT VERY QUIET WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHICH WILL BEGIN IMPACTING CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH RAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND APPEARS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH KEEPS RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND MORE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS (AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW WEEKS) STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THIS WEEKEND
WITH AT OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES!

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 927 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS 015-020 HOLDING FIRM ACROSS THE AREA. BEEN SOME
EROSION OF THE CEILINGS OVER ILLINOIS...BUT THIS APPEARS TO HAVE
SLOWED BASED ON SATELLITE LOOP.

MODELS INDICATE A STRONG INVERSION AROUND 025 WHICH WILL PROBABLY
LAST WELL INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A LIGHT GRADIENT
SUGGESTS THE LOWER CEILINGS MAY LINGER FOR AWHILE. SHORT TERM MODEL
DATA SUGGEST SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
KHUF/KBMG...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE FOR NOW.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 252233
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
531 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK BEFORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHES
AND BRINGS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND AND BEYOND. AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLING WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

EXPECT CLOUDS TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND ERODE SOME BY
MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...TRENDS AND GENERAL UPPER
PATTERN. THIS IS SLOWER THAN MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS ALONG WITH
WARM ADVECTION STARING UP SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FROM
COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT AND USED A GUIDANCE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND POPS/PRECIP TYPE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACKING AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE THROUGH JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
THIS SHOULD BRING SOME UPPER FORCING TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN AT THE SURFACE DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW
ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING FOR THE COLUMN TO QUICKLY DROP BELOW
FREEZING AND ALLOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. THUS INCLUDED A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND BROUGHT IT TO THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES BY EVENING. AFTER 0Z
HAVE SNOW AS ONLY PRECIP TYPE. WITH THE DRY AIR...WARM GROUND...AND
NOT MUCH FORCING AT LOW LEVELS THINK ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT...ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THE BEST CONDITIONS
FOR PRECIP WILL EXIST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND
INCREASED TO LIKELY POPS THERE AFTER 0Z. ALL MAJOR OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS KEEP QPF OUT OF NORTHEAST HALF OF AREA SO TRENDED POPS
DOWN QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. BY THURSDAY THE WAVE WILL BE
THROUGH BUT COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WENT NEAR MOS CONSENSUS. HOWEVER FOR
WEDNESDAY LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET GUIDANCE NUMBERS THAT WERE CLOSER
TO THE MIDDLE OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS FOR BOTH GFS AND ECM WITH MAV
NUMBERS LOOKING TOO WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 209 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL START OUT VERY QUIET WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHICH WILL BEGIN IMPACTING CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH RAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND APPEARS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH KEEPS RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND MORE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS (AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW WEEKS) STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THIS WEEKEND
WITH AT OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES!

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 531 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR CEILINGS 015-020 HOLDING FIRM ACROSS THE AREA. BEEN SOME
EROSION OF THE CEILINGS OVER ILLINOIS...BUT THIS APPEARS TO HAVE
SLOWED BASED ON SATELLITE LOOP.

MODELS INDICATE A STRONG INVERSION AROUND 025 WHICH WILL PROBABLY
LAST WELL INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A LIGHT GRADIENT
SUGGESTS THE LOWER CEILINGS MAY LINGER FOR AWHILE. SHORT TERM MODEL
DATA SUGGEST SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
KHUF/KBMG...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE FOR NOW.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 252233
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
531 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK BEFORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHES
AND BRINGS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND AND BEYOND. AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLING WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

EXPECT CLOUDS TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND ERODE SOME BY
MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...TRENDS AND GENERAL UPPER
PATTERN. THIS IS SLOWER THAN MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS ALONG WITH
WARM ADVECTION STARING UP SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FROM
COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT AND USED A GUIDANCE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND POPS/PRECIP TYPE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACKING AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE THROUGH JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
THIS SHOULD BRING SOME UPPER FORCING TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN AT THE SURFACE DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW
ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING FOR THE COLUMN TO QUICKLY DROP BELOW
FREEZING AND ALLOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. THUS INCLUDED A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND BROUGHT IT TO THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES BY EVENING. AFTER 0Z
HAVE SNOW AS ONLY PRECIP TYPE. WITH THE DRY AIR...WARM GROUND...AND
NOT MUCH FORCING AT LOW LEVELS THINK ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT...ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THE BEST CONDITIONS
FOR PRECIP WILL EXIST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND
INCREASED TO LIKELY POPS THERE AFTER 0Z. ALL MAJOR OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS KEEP QPF OUT OF NORTHEAST HALF OF AREA SO TRENDED POPS
DOWN QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. BY THURSDAY THE WAVE WILL BE
THROUGH BUT COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WENT NEAR MOS CONSENSUS. HOWEVER FOR
WEDNESDAY LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET GUIDANCE NUMBERS THAT WERE CLOSER
TO THE MIDDLE OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS FOR BOTH GFS AND ECM WITH MAV
NUMBERS LOOKING TOO WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 209 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL START OUT VERY QUIET WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHICH WILL BEGIN IMPACTING CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH RAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND APPEARS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH KEEPS RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND MORE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS (AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW WEEKS) STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THIS WEEKEND
WITH AT OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES!

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 531 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR CEILINGS 015-020 HOLDING FIRM ACROSS THE AREA. BEEN SOME
EROSION OF THE CEILINGS OVER ILLINOIS...BUT THIS APPEARS TO HAVE
SLOWED BASED ON SATELLITE LOOP.

MODELS INDICATE A STRONG INVERSION AROUND 025 WHICH WILL PROBABLY
LAST WELL INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A LIGHT GRADIENT
SUGGESTS THE LOWER CEILINGS MAY LINGER FOR AWHILE. SHORT TERM MODEL
DATA SUGGEST SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
KHUF/KBMG...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE FOR NOW.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 252042
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
342 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK BEFORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHES
AND BRINGS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND AND BEYOND. AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLING WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

EXPECT CLOUDS TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND ERODE SOME BY
MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...TRENDS AND GENERAL UPPER
PATTERN. THIS IS SLOWER THAN MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS ALONG WITH
WARM ADVECTION STARING UP SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FROM
COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT AND USED A GUIDANCE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND POPS/PRECIP TYPE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACKING AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE THROUGH JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
THIS SHOULD BRING SOME UPPER FORCING TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN AT THE SURFACE DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW
ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING FOR THE COLUMN TO QUICKLY DROP BELOW
FREEZING AND ALLOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. THUS INCLUDED A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND BROUGHT IT TO THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES BY EVENING. AFTER 0Z
HAVE SNOW AS ONLY PRECIP TYPE. WITH THE DRY AIR...WARM GROUND...AND
NOT MUCH FORCING AT LOW LEVELS THINK ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT...ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THE BEST CONDITIONS
FOR PRECIP WILL EXIST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND
INCREASED TO LIKELY POPS THERE AFTER 0Z. ALL MAJOR OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS KEEP QPF OUT OF NORTHEAST HALF OF AREA SO TRENDED POPS
DOWN QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. BY THURSDAY THE WAVE WILL BE
THROUGH BUT COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WENT NEAR MOS CONSENSUS. HOWEVER FOR
WEDNESDAY LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET GUIDANCE NUMBERS THAT WERE CLOSER
TO THE MIDDLE OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS FOR BOTH GFS AND ECM WITH MAV
NUMBERS LOOKING TOO WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 209 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL START OUT VERY QUIET WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHICH WILL BEGIN IMPACTING CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH RAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND APPEARS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH KEEPS RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND MORE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS (AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW WEEKS) STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THIS WEEKEND
WITH AT OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES!

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 252100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH POSSIBLE SOME SITES IMPROVING
TO VFR TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST TAF PERIOD.

GFS MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE NO HANDLE THE CURRENT MVFR
STRATOCU CLOUD DECK WHICH HAS CONTINUED TO HANG ON ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WILL STAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LEANED MUCH
CLOSER TO THE MORE NEGATIVE (MVFR) NAM MOS WHICH DEPICTS MVFR
CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLE LIFTING OUT A LITTLE EARLIER AT THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES SUCH AS KLAF AND KHUF...AND LATER WED MORNING AT KIND
AND KBMG. W/NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVENING
AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. DID NOT INTRODUCE AND PRECIP
CHANCES FOR WED AS THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING IN PAST THE TAF
PERIOD AND STAYING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
COULD POTENTIALLY BE ADDED IN TO SUBSEQUENT AVIATION FORECASTS IF
PRECIP LOOKS TO MOVE FARTHER NORTHWARD AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
THIS. FOR NOW KEPT EARLY HALF OF WED DRY IN THE TAFS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 252042
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
342 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK BEFORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHES
AND BRINGS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND AND BEYOND. AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLING WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

EXPECT CLOUDS TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND ERODE SOME BY
MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...TRENDS AND GENERAL UPPER
PATTERN. THIS IS SLOWER THAN MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS ALONG WITH
WARM ADVECTION STARING UP SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FROM
COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT AND USED A GUIDANCE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND POPS/PRECIP TYPE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACKING AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE THROUGH JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
THIS SHOULD BRING SOME UPPER FORCING TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN AT THE SURFACE DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW
ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING FOR THE COLUMN TO QUICKLY DROP BELOW
FREEZING AND ALLOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. THUS INCLUDED A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND BROUGHT IT TO THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES BY EVENING. AFTER 0Z
HAVE SNOW AS ONLY PRECIP TYPE. WITH THE DRY AIR...WARM GROUND...AND
NOT MUCH FORCING AT LOW LEVELS THINK ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT...ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THE BEST CONDITIONS
FOR PRECIP WILL EXIST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND
INCREASED TO LIKELY POPS THERE AFTER 0Z. ALL MAJOR OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS KEEP QPF OUT OF NORTHEAST HALF OF AREA SO TRENDED POPS
DOWN QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. BY THURSDAY THE WAVE WILL BE
THROUGH BUT COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WENT NEAR MOS CONSENSUS. HOWEVER FOR
WEDNESDAY LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET GUIDANCE NUMBERS THAT WERE CLOSER
TO THE MIDDLE OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS FOR BOTH GFS AND ECM WITH MAV
NUMBERS LOOKING TOO WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 209 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL START OUT VERY QUIET WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHICH WILL BEGIN IMPACTING CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH RAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND APPEARS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH KEEPS RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND MORE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS (AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW WEEKS) STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THIS WEEKEND
WITH AT OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES!

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 252100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH POSSIBLE SOME SITES IMPROVING
TO VFR TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST TAF PERIOD.

GFS MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE NO HANDLE THE CURRENT MVFR
STRATOCU CLOUD DECK WHICH HAS CONTINUED TO HANG ON ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WILL STAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LEANED MUCH
CLOSER TO THE MORE NEGATIVE (MVFR) NAM MOS WHICH DEPICTS MVFR
CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLE LIFTING OUT A LITTLE EARLIER AT THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES SUCH AS KLAF AND KHUF...AND LATER WED MORNING AT KIND
AND KBMG. W/NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVENING
AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. DID NOT INTRODUCE AND PRECIP
CHANCES FOR WED AS THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING IN PAST THE TAF
PERIOD AND STAYING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
COULD POTENTIALLY BE ADDED IN TO SUBSEQUENT AVIATION FORECASTS IF
PRECIP LOOKS TO MOVE FARTHER NORTHWARD AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
THIS. FOR NOW KEPT EARLY HALF OF WED DRY IN THE TAFS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 252022
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.  MODELS TRACK A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH AND PRODUCING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR REGION.  A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THANKSGIVING DAY
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

MODELS INDICATE A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION AND THERE WILL
BE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG WITH
MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

GOING FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE MODERATE WINDS
TODAY AS COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO OUR REGION.  SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND WITH SOME
CLEARING ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY FAR SOUTH. MODELS
INDICATE MAY DECREASE SOME LATE TODAY.

WILL CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH CLOUDS
AND SOME COLD ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 30 FAR NORTH TO ALMOST 40 SOUTH.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER OUR SOUTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S WHICH IS
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MODELS MOVE AN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS
WEST AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WEDNESDAY COULD SEE A LITTLE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS COULD SEE PRECIP START OUT AS
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN RAIN IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURE-WISE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
A LITTLE WARMER SO ACCEPTED THIS FROM THE SUPERBLEND.

SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THANKSGIVING DAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 209 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL START OUT VERY QUIET WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHICH WILL BEGIN IMPACTING CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH RAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND APPEARS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH KEEPS RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND MORE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS (AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW WEEKS) STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THIS WEEKEND
WITH AT OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES!

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 252100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH POSSIBLE SOME SITES IMPROVING
TO VFR TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST TAF PERIOD.

GFS MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE NO HANDLE THE CURRENT MFVR
STRATOCU CLOUD DECK WHICH HAS CONTINUED TO HANG ON ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WILL STAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LEANED MUCH
CLOSER TO THE MORE NEGATIVE (MVFR) NAM MOS WHICH DEPICTS MVFR
CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLE LIFTING OUT A LITTLE EARLIER AT THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES SUCH AS KLAF AND KHUF...AND LATER WED MORNING AT KIND
AND KBMG. W/NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVENING
AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. DID NOT INTRODUCE AND PRECIP
CHANCES FOR WED AS THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING IN PAST THE TAF
PERIOD AND STAYING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT COULD
POTENTIALLY BE ADDED IN TO SUBSEQUENT AVIATION FORECASTS IF PRECIP
LOOKS TO MOVE FARTHER NORTHWARD AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THIS.
FOR NOW KEPT EARLY HALF OF WED DRY IN THE TAFS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/CP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 252022
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.  MODELS TRACK A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH AND PRODUCING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR REGION.  A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THANKSGIVING DAY
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

MODELS INDICATE A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION AND THERE WILL
BE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG WITH
MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

GOING FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE MODERATE WINDS
TODAY AS COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO OUR REGION.  SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND WITH SOME
CLEARING ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY FAR SOUTH. MODELS
INDICATE MAY DECREASE SOME LATE TODAY.

WILL CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH CLOUDS
AND SOME COLD ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 30 FAR NORTH TO ALMOST 40 SOUTH.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER OUR SOUTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S WHICH IS
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MODELS MOVE AN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS
WEST AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WEDNESDAY COULD SEE A LITTLE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS COULD SEE PRECIP START OUT AS
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN RAIN IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURE-WISE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
A LITTLE WARMER SO ACCEPTED THIS FROM THE SUPERBLEND.

SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THANKSGIVING DAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 209 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL START OUT VERY QUIET WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHICH WILL BEGIN IMPACTING CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH RAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND APPEARS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH KEEPS RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND MORE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS (AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW WEEKS) STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THIS WEEKEND
WITH AT OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES!

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 252100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 320 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH POSSIBLE SOME SITES IMPROVING
TO VFR TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST TAF PERIOD.

GFS MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE NO HANDLE THE CURRENT MFVR
STRATOCU CLOUD DECK WHICH HAS CONTINUED TO HANG ON ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WILL STAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LEANED MUCH
CLOSER TO THE MORE NEGATIVE (MVFR) NAM MOS WHICH DEPICTS MVFR
CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLE LIFTING OUT A LITTLE EARLIER AT THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES SUCH AS KLAF AND KHUF...AND LATER WED MORNING AT KIND
AND KBMG. W/NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVENING
AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. DID NOT INTRODUCE AND PRECIP
CHANCES FOR WED AS THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING IN PAST THE TAF
PERIOD AND STAYING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT COULD
POTENTIALLY BE ADDED IN TO SUBSEQUENT AVIATION FORECASTS IF PRECIP
LOOKS TO MOVE FARTHER NORTHWARD AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THIS.
FOR NOW KEPT EARLY HALF OF WED DRY IN THE TAFS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/CP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 251911
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
211 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.  MODELS TRACK A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH AND PRODUCING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR REGION.  A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THANKSGIVING DAY
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

MODELS INDICATE A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION AND THERE WILL
BE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG WITH
MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

GOING FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE MODERATE WINDS
TODAY AS COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO OUR REGION.  SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND WITH SOME
CLEARING ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY FAR SOUTH. MODELS
INDICATE MAY DECREASE SOME LATE TODAY.

WILL CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH CLOUDS
AND SOME COLD ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 30 FAR NORTH TO ALMOST 40 SOUTH.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER OUR SOUTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S WHICH IS
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MODELS MOVE AN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS
WEST AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WEDNESDAY COULD SEE A LITTLE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS COULD SEE PRECIP START OUT AS
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN RAIN IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURE-WISE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
A LITTLE WARMER SO ACCEPTED THIS FROM THE SUPERBLEND.

SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THANKSGIVING DAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 209 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL START OUT VERY QUIET WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHICH WILL BEGIN IMPACTING CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH RAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND APPEARS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH KEEPS RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND MORE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS (AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW WEEKS) STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THIS WEEKEND
WITH AT OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES!

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1157 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH POSSIBLE SOME SITES IMPROVING
TO VFR TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST TAF PERIOD.

GFS MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE NO HANDLE THE CURRENT MFVR
STRATOCU CLOUD DECK WHICH HAS CONTINUED TO HANG ON ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WILL STAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LEANED MUCH
CLOSER TO THE MORE NEGATIVE (MVFR) NAM MOS WHICH DEPICTS MVFR
CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLE LIFTING OUT A LITTLE EARLIER AT THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES SUCH AS KLAF AND KHUF...AND LATER WED MORNING AT KIND
AND KBMG. W/NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVENING
AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. DID NOT INTRODUCE AND PRECIP
CHANCES FOR WED AS THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING IN PAST THE TAF
PERIOD AND STAYING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT COULD
POTENTIALLY BE ADDED IN TO SUBSEQUENT AVIATION FORECASTS IF PRECIP
LOOKS TO MOVE FARTHER NORTHWARD AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THIS.
FOR NOW KEPT EARLY HALF OF WED DRY IN THE TAFS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/CP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 251911
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
211 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.  MODELS TRACK A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH AND PRODUCING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR REGION.  A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THANKSGIVING DAY
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

MODELS INDICATE A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION AND THERE WILL
BE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG WITH
MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

GOING FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE MODERATE WINDS
TODAY AS COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO OUR REGION.  SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND WITH SOME
CLEARING ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY FAR SOUTH. MODELS
INDICATE MAY DECREASE SOME LATE TODAY.

WILL CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH CLOUDS
AND SOME COLD ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 30 FAR NORTH TO ALMOST 40 SOUTH.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER OUR SOUTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S WHICH IS
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MODELS MOVE AN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS
WEST AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WEDNESDAY COULD SEE A LITTLE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS COULD SEE PRECIP START OUT AS
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN RAIN IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURE-WISE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
A LITTLE WARMER SO ACCEPTED THIS FROM THE SUPERBLEND.

SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THANKSGIVING DAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 209 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL START OUT VERY QUIET WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHICH WILL BEGIN IMPACTING CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH RAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND APPEARS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH KEEPS RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND MORE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS (AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW WEEKS) STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THIS WEEKEND
WITH AT OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES!

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1157 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH POSSIBLE SOME SITES IMPROVING
TO VFR TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST TAF PERIOD.

GFS MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE NO HANDLE THE CURRENT MFVR
STRATOCU CLOUD DECK WHICH HAS CONTINUED TO HANG ON ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WILL STAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LEANED MUCH
CLOSER TO THE MORE NEGATIVE (MVFR) NAM MOS WHICH DEPICTS MVFR
CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLE LIFTING OUT A LITTLE EARLIER AT THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES SUCH AS KLAF AND KHUF...AND LATER WED MORNING AT KIND
AND KBMG. W/NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVENING
AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. DID NOT INTRODUCE AND PRECIP
CHANCES FOR WED AS THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING IN PAST THE TAF
PERIOD AND STAYING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT COULD
POTENTIALLY BE ADDED IN TO SUBSEQUENT AVIATION FORECASTS IF PRECIP
LOOKS TO MOVE FARTHER NORTHWARD AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THIS.
FOR NOW KEPT EARLY HALF OF WED DRY IN THE TAFS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/CP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 251705
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1205 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.  MODELS TRACK A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH AND PRODUCING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR REGION.  A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THANKSGIVING DAY
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

MODELS INDICATE A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION AND THERE WILL
BE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG WITH
MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

GOING FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE MODERATE WINDS
TODAY AS COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO OUR REGION.  SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND WITH SOME
CLEARING ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY FAR SOUTH. MODELS
INDICATE MAY DECREASE SOME LATE TODAY.

WILL CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH CLOUDS
AND SOME COLD ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 30 FAR NORTH TO ALMOST 40 SOUTH.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER OUR SOUTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S WHICH IS
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MODELS MOVE AN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS
WEST AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WEDNESDAY COULD SEE A LITTLE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS COULD SEE PRECIP START OUT AS
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN RAIN IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURE-WISE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
A LITTLE WARMER SO ACCEPTED THIS FROM THE SUPERBLEND.

SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THANKSGIVING DAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT RATHER BENIGN WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.  A
VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THOSE COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.  NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED THOUGH.  FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE
SURFACE THAT WILL BRING RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.  THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1157 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH POSSIBLE SOME SITES IMPROVING
TO VFR TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST TAF PERIOD.

GFS MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE NO HANDLE THE CURRENT MFVR
STRATOCU CLOUD DECK WHICH HAS CONTINUED TO HANG ON ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WILL STAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LEANED MUCH
CLOSER TO THE MORE NEGATIVE (MVFR) NAM MOS WHICH DEPICTS MVFR
CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLE LIFTING OUT A LITTLE EARLIER AT THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES SUCH AS KLAF AND KHUF...AND LATER WED MORNING AT KIND
AND KBMG. W/NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVENING
AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. DID NOT INTRODUCE AND PRECIP
CHANCES FOR WED AS THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING IN PAST THE TAF
PERIOD AND STAYING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT COULD
POTENTIALLY BE ADDED IN TO SUBSEQUENT AVIATION FORECASTS IF PRECIP
LOOKS TO MOVE FARTHER NORTHWARD AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THIS.
FOR NOW KEPT EARLY HALF OF WED DRY IN THE TAFS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/CP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 251705
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1205 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.  MODELS TRACK A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH AND PRODUCING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR REGION.  A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THANKSGIVING DAY
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

MODELS INDICATE A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION AND THERE WILL
BE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG WITH
MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

GOING FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE MODERATE WINDS
TODAY AS COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO OUR REGION.  SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND WITH SOME
CLEARING ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY FAR SOUTH. MODELS
INDICATE MAY DECREASE SOME LATE TODAY.

WILL CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH CLOUDS
AND SOME COLD ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 30 FAR NORTH TO ALMOST 40 SOUTH.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER OUR SOUTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S WHICH IS
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MODELS MOVE AN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS
WEST AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WEDNESDAY COULD SEE A LITTLE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS COULD SEE PRECIP START OUT AS
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN RAIN IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURE-WISE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
A LITTLE WARMER SO ACCEPTED THIS FROM THE SUPERBLEND.

SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THANKSGIVING DAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT RATHER BENIGN WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.  A
VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THOSE COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.  NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED THOUGH.  FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE
SURFACE THAT WILL BRING RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.  THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1157 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH POSSIBLE SOME SITES IMPROVING
TO VFR TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST TAF PERIOD.

GFS MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE NO HANDLE THE CURRENT MFVR
STRATOCU CLOUD DECK WHICH HAS CONTINUED TO HANG ON ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WILL STAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LEANED MUCH
CLOSER TO THE MORE NEGATIVE (MVFR) NAM MOS WHICH DEPICTS MVFR
CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLE LIFTING OUT A LITTLE EARLIER AT THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES SUCH AS KLAF AND KHUF...AND LATER WED MORNING AT KIND
AND KBMG. W/NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVENING
AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. DID NOT INTRODUCE AND PRECIP
CHANCES FOR WED AS THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING IN PAST THE TAF
PERIOD AND STAYING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT COULD
POTENTIALLY BE ADDED IN TO SUBSEQUENT AVIATION FORECASTS IF PRECIP
LOOKS TO MOVE FARTHER NORTHWARD AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THIS.
FOR NOW KEPT EARLY HALF OF WED DRY IN THE TAFS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/CP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 251504
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1005 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.  MODELS TRACK A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH AND PRODUCING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR REGION.  A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THANKSGIVING DAY
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

MODELS INDICATE A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION AND THERE WILL
BE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG WITH
MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

GOING FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE MODERATE WINDS
TODAY AS COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO OUR REGION.  SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND WITH SOME
CLEARING ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY FAR SOUTH. MODELS
INDICATE MAY DECREASE SOME LATE TODAY.

WILL CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH CLOUDS
AND SOME COLD ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 30 FAR NORTH TO ALMOST 40 SOUTH.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER OUR SOUTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S WHICH IS
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MODELS MOVE AN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS
WEST AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WEDNESDAY COULD SEE A LITTLE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS COULD SEE PRECIP START OUT AS
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN RAIN IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURE-WISE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
A LITTLE WARMER SO ACCEPTED THIS FROM THE SUPERBLEND.

SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THANKSGIVING DAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT RATHER BENIGN WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.  A
VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THOSE COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.  NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED THOUGH.  FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE
SURFACE THAT WILL BRING RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.  THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 926 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

1430Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THEN BECOME
VFR CATEGORY FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 14 KTS
AND GUSTING TO 18 KTS. LATE IN TAF PERIOD...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY BUT LIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS
LATE IN PERIOD COULD RESULT IN A BROKEN CLOUD DECK AT 150.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/CP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...SMF/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 251504
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1005 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.  MODELS TRACK A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH AND PRODUCING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR REGION.  A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THANKSGIVING DAY
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

MODELS INDICATE A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION AND THERE WILL
BE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG WITH
MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

GOING FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE MODERATE WINDS
TODAY AS COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO OUR REGION.  SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND WITH SOME
CLEARING ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY FAR SOUTH. MODELS
INDICATE MAY DECREASE SOME LATE TODAY.

WILL CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH CLOUDS
AND SOME COLD ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 30 FAR NORTH TO ALMOST 40 SOUTH.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER OUR SOUTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S WHICH IS
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MODELS MOVE AN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS
WEST AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WEDNESDAY COULD SEE A LITTLE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS COULD SEE PRECIP START OUT AS
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN RAIN IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURE-WISE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
A LITTLE WARMER SO ACCEPTED THIS FROM THE SUPERBLEND.

SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THANKSGIVING DAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT RATHER BENIGN WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.  A
VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THOSE COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.  NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED THOUGH.  FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE
SURFACE THAT WILL BRING RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.  THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 926 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

1430Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THEN BECOME
VFR CATEGORY FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 14 KTS
AND GUSTING TO 18 KTS. LATE IN TAF PERIOD...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY BUT LIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS
LATE IN PERIOD COULD RESULT IN A BROKEN CLOUD DECK AT 150.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/CP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...SMF/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 251431
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
931 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.  MODELS TRACK A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH AND PRODUCING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR REGION.  A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THANKSGIVING DAY
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

MODELS INDICATE A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION AND THERE WILL
BE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG WITH
MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE MODERATE WINDS
TODAY AS COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO OUR REGION.  SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND WITH SOME
CLEARING ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY FAR SOUTH. MODELS
INDICATE MAY DECREASE SOME LATE TODAY.

WILL CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH CLOUDS
AND SOME COLD ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 30 FAR NORTH TO ALMOST 40 SOUTH.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER OUR SOUTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S WHICH IS
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MODELS MOVE AN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS
WEST AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WEDNESDAY COULD SEE A LITTLE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS COULD SEE PRECIP START OUT AS
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN RAIN IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURE-WISE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
A LITTLE WARMER SO ACCEPTED THIS FROM THE SUPERBLEND.

SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THANKSGIVING DAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT RATHER BENIGN WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.  A
VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THOSE COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.  NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED THOUGH.  FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE
SURFACE THAT WILL BRING RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.  THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 926 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

1430Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THEN BECOME
VFR CATEGORY FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 14 KTS
AND GUSTING TO 18 KTS. LATE IN TAF PERIOD...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY BUT LIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS
LATE IN PERIOD COULD RESULT IN A BROKEN CLOUD DECK AT 150.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...SMF/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 251431
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
931 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.  MODELS TRACK A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH AND PRODUCING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR REGION.  A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THANKSGIVING DAY
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

MODELS INDICATE A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION AND THERE WILL
BE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG WITH
MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE MODERATE WINDS
TODAY AS COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO OUR REGION.  SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND WITH SOME
CLEARING ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY FAR SOUTH. MODELS
INDICATE MAY DECREASE SOME LATE TODAY.

WILL CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH CLOUDS
AND SOME COLD ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 30 FAR NORTH TO ALMOST 40 SOUTH.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER OUR SOUTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S WHICH IS
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MODELS MOVE AN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS
WEST AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WEDNESDAY COULD SEE A LITTLE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS COULD SEE PRECIP START OUT AS
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN RAIN IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURE-WISE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
A LITTLE WARMER SO ACCEPTED THIS FROM THE SUPERBLEND.

SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THANKSGIVING DAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT RATHER BENIGN WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.  A
VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THOSE COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.  NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED THOUGH.  FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE
SURFACE THAT WILL BRING RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.  THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 926 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

1430Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THEN BECOME
VFR CATEGORY FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 14 KTS
AND GUSTING TO 18 KTS. LATE IN TAF PERIOD...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY BUT LIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS
LATE IN PERIOD COULD RESULT IN A BROKEN CLOUD DECK AT 150.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...SMF/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 251203
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
703 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.  MODELS TRACK A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH AND PRODUCING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR REGION.  A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THANKSGIVING DAY
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

MODELS INDICATE A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION AND THERE WILL
BE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG WITH
MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE MODERATE WINDS
TODAY AS COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO OUR REGION.  SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND WITH SOME
CLEARING ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY FAR SOUTH. MODELS
INDICATE MAY DECREASE SOME LATE TODAY.

WILL CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH CLOUDS
AND SOME COLD ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 30 FAR NORTH TO ALMOST 40 SOUTH.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER OUR SOUTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S WHICH IS
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MODELS MOVE AN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS
WEST AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WEDNESDAY COULD SEE A LITTLE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS COULD SEE PRECIP START OUT AS
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN RAIN IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURE-WISE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
A LITTLE WARMER SO ACCEPTED THIS FROM THE SUPERBLEND.

SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THANKSGIVING DAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT RATHER BENIGN WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.  A
VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THOSE COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.  NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED THOUGH.  FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE
SURFACE THAT WILL BRING RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.  THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 623 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THEN BECOME
VFR CATEGORY FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 14 KTS
AND GUSTING TO 18 KTS. LATE IN TAF PERIOD...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY BUT LIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS
LATE IN PERIOD COULD RESULT IN A BROKEN CLOUD DECK AT 150.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 251203
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
703 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.  MODELS TRACK A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH AND PRODUCING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR REGION.  A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THANKSGIVING DAY
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

MODELS INDICATE A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION AND THERE WILL
BE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG WITH
MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE MODERATE WINDS
TODAY AS COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO OUR REGION.  SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND WITH SOME
CLEARING ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY FAR SOUTH. MODELS
INDICATE MAY DECREASE SOME LATE TODAY.

WILL CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH CLOUDS
AND SOME COLD ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 30 FAR NORTH TO ALMOST 40 SOUTH.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER OUR SOUTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S WHICH IS
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MODELS MOVE AN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS
WEST AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WEDNESDAY COULD SEE A LITTLE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS COULD SEE PRECIP START OUT AS
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN RAIN IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURE-WISE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
A LITTLE WARMER SO ACCEPTED THIS FROM THE SUPERBLEND.

SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THANKSGIVING DAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT RATHER BENIGN WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.  A
VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THOSE COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.  NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED THOUGH.  FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE
SURFACE THAT WILL BRING RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.  THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 623 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THEN BECOME
VFR CATEGORY FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 14 KTS
AND GUSTING TO 18 KTS. LATE IN TAF PERIOD...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY BUT LIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS
LATE IN PERIOD COULD RESULT IN A BROKEN CLOUD DECK AT 150.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 250908
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.  MODELS TRACK A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH AND PRODUCING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR REGION.  A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THANKSGIVING DAY
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.


MODELS INDICATE A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION AND THERE WILL
BE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG WITH
MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE MODERATE WINDS
TODAY AS COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO OUR REGION.  SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND WITH SOME
CLEARING ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY FAR SOUTH. MODELS
INDICATE MAY DECREASE SOME LATE TODAY.

WILL CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH CLOUDS
AND SOME COLD ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 30 FAR NORTH TO ALMOST 40 SOUTH.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER OUR SOUTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S WHICH IS
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MODELS MOVE AN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS
WEST AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WEDNESDAY COULD SEE A LITTLE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS COULD SEE PRECIP START OUT AS
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN RAIN IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURE-WISE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
A LITTLE WARMER SO ACCEPTED THIS FROM THE SUPERBLEND.

SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THANKSGIVING DAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT RATHER BENIGN WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.  A
VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THOSE COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.  NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED THOUGH.  FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE
SURFACE THAT WILL BRING RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.  THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/09Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 311 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATE...
MVFR CONDITIONS REMAIN AT KIND...BUT WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST 12 OR SO HOURS
AT LAF...AND PERHAPS IND/HUF/BMG. BORDER BETWEEN MVFR CEILINGS AND
VFR IS JUST SOUTH OF THOSE THREE SITES AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
FLUCTUATING CATEGORIES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW BEFORE
VFR RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS HAVE BEGUN GUSTING AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA...WITH ANOTHER SLIGHTLY WEAKER TROUGH NOTED
UPSTREAM...WILL JUST GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE GUSTS THROUGH THE NIGHT
ALTHOUGH WEAKEN THEM AS TIME GOES ON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
LIGHT GUSTINESS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND HAVE INCLUDED GUSTS INTO THE
MID TEENS RANGE DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF
THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 250908
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.  MODELS TRACK A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH AND PRODUCING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR REGION.  A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THANKSGIVING DAY
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.


MODELS INDICATE A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION AND THERE WILL
BE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG WITH
MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE MODERATE WINDS
TODAY AS COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO OUR REGION.  SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND WITH SOME
CLEARING ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY FAR SOUTH. MODELS
INDICATE MAY DECREASE SOME LATE TODAY.

WILL CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH CLOUDS
AND SOME COLD ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 30 FAR NORTH TO ALMOST 40 SOUTH.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER OUR SOUTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S WHICH IS
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MODELS MOVE AN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS
WEST AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WEDNESDAY COULD SEE A LITTLE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS COULD SEE PRECIP START OUT AS
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN RAIN IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURE-WISE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
A LITTLE WARMER SO ACCEPTED THIS FROM THE SUPERBLEND.

SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THANKSGIVING DAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT RATHER BENIGN WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.  A
VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THOSE COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.  NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED THOUGH.  FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE
SURFACE THAT WILL BRING RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.  THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/09Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 311 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATE...
MVFR CONDITIONS REMAIN AT KIND...BUT WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST 12 OR SO HOURS
AT LAF...AND PERHAPS IND/HUF/BMG. BORDER BETWEEN MVFR CEILINGS AND
VFR IS JUST SOUTH OF THOSE THREE SITES AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
FLUCTUATING CATEGORIES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW BEFORE
VFR RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS HAVE BEGUN GUSTING AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA...WITH ANOTHER SLIGHTLY WEAKER TROUGH NOTED
UPSTREAM...WILL JUST GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE GUSTS THROUGH THE NIGHT
ALTHOUGH WEAKEN THEM AS TIME GOES ON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
LIGHT GUSTINESS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND HAVE INCLUDED GUSTS INTO THE
MID TEENS RANGE DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF
THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 250813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
313 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL AND BRING OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND NEXT
WEEKEND UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1015 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE EARLIER FORECAST IS WELL SUPPORTED BY CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
DOES NOT NEED MAJOR CHANGES.

SOME CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO FORECASTING FLURRIES INSTEAD OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN CWA. THERE IS LITTLE OR NOTHING OCCURRING
RIGHT NOW AND THE BEST FORCING IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.

HOWEVER THE HOURLY RAPID REFRESH INTRODUCES A FEW WEAK ECHOES IN
THAT AREA LATE TONIGHT...PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH NOW
CLOSE TO THE MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH SNOW UPSTREAM TO MAKE
THIS LOOK PLAUSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE PROSPECT OF SNOW SHOWERS IS NOT
HIGH IN ABSOLUTE TERMS...A SLIGHT CHANCE IS WORTH RETAINING.

FARTHER SOUTH NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE ANYTHING NOR IS THERE ANYTHING
UPSTREAM. WE MAY SEE A SNOW FLAKE HERE AND THERE IN THE PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SMALL AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
EVEN WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW A DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AT 850 ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND HAD HIGHS FOLLOW
SUIT WITH AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE GREATEST.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SYSTEM. NOW LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND HAVE INCREASED POPS THERE ACCORDINGLY.
WEDNESDAY COULD SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS
COULD SEE PRECIP START OUT AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN RAIN
IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURE-WISE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
A LITTLE WARMER SO ACCEPTED THIS FROM THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS DUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN...AND EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK VERY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME SO LEFT POPS AT SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL. ONLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/09Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 311 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATE...
MVFR CONDITIONS REMAIN AT KIND...BUT WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST 12 OR SO HOURS
AT LAF...AND PERHAPS IND/HUF/BMG. BORDER BETWEEN MVFR CEILINGS AND
VFR IS JUST SOUTH OF THOSE THREE SITES AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
FLUCTUATING CATEGORIES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW BEFORE
VFR RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS HAVE BEGUN GUSTING AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA...WITH ANOTHER SLIGHTLY WEAKER TROUGH NOTED
UPSTREAM...WILL JUST GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE GUSTS THROUGH THE NIGHT
ALTHOUGH WEAKEN THEM AS TIME GOES ON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
LIGHT GUSTINESS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND HAVE INCLUDED GUSTS INTO THE
MID TEENS RANGE DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF
THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...NIELD/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 250813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
313 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL AND BRING OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND NEXT
WEEKEND UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1015 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE EARLIER FORECAST IS WELL SUPPORTED BY CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
DOES NOT NEED MAJOR CHANGES.

SOME CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO FORECASTING FLURRIES INSTEAD OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN CWA. THERE IS LITTLE OR NOTHING OCCURRING
RIGHT NOW AND THE BEST FORCING IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.

HOWEVER THE HOURLY RAPID REFRESH INTRODUCES A FEW WEAK ECHOES IN
THAT AREA LATE TONIGHT...PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH NOW
CLOSE TO THE MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH SNOW UPSTREAM TO MAKE
THIS LOOK PLAUSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE PROSPECT OF SNOW SHOWERS IS NOT
HIGH IN ABSOLUTE TERMS...A SLIGHT CHANCE IS WORTH RETAINING.

FARTHER SOUTH NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE ANYTHING NOR IS THERE ANYTHING
UPSTREAM. WE MAY SEE A SNOW FLAKE HERE AND THERE IN THE PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SMALL AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
EVEN WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW A DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AT 850 ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND HAD HIGHS FOLLOW
SUIT WITH AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE GREATEST.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SYSTEM. NOW LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND HAVE INCREASED POPS THERE ACCORDINGLY.
WEDNESDAY COULD SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS
COULD SEE PRECIP START OUT AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN RAIN
IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURE-WISE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
A LITTLE WARMER SO ACCEPTED THIS FROM THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS DUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN...AND EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK VERY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME SO LEFT POPS AT SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL. ONLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/09Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 311 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATE...
MVFR CONDITIONS REMAIN AT KIND...BUT WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST 12 OR SO HOURS
AT LAF...AND PERHAPS IND/HUF/BMG. BORDER BETWEEN MVFR CEILINGS AND
VFR IS JUST SOUTH OF THOSE THREE SITES AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
FLUCTUATING CATEGORIES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW BEFORE
VFR RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS HAVE BEGUN GUSTING AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA...WITH ANOTHER SLIGHTLY WEAKER TROUGH NOTED
UPSTREAM...WILL JUST GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE GUSTS THROUGH THE NIGHT
ALTHOUGH WEAKEN THEM AS TIME GOES ON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
LIGHT GUSTINESS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND HAVE INCLUDED GUSTS INTO THE
MID TEENS RANGE DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF
THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...NIELD/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 250443
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1143 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL AND BRING OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND NEXT
WEEKEND UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1015 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE EARLIER FORECAST IS WELL SUPPORTED BY CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
DOES NOT NEED MAJOR CHANGES.

SOME CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO FORECASTING FLURRIES INSTEAD OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN CWA. THERE IS LITTLE OR NOTHING OCCURRING
RIGHT NOW AND THE BEST FORCING IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.

HOWEVER THE HOURLY RAPID REFRESH INTRODUCES A FEW WEAK ECHOES IN
THAT AREA LATE TONIGHT...PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH NOW
CLOSE TO THE MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH SNOW UPSTREAM TO MAKE
THIS LOOK PLAUSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE PROSPECT OF SNOW SHOWERS IS NOT
HIGH IN ABSOLUTE TERMS...A SLIGHT CHANCE IS WORTH RETAINING.

FARTHER SOUTH NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE ANYTHING NOR IS THERE ANYTHING
UPSTREAM. WE MAY SEE A SNOW FLAKE HERE AND THERE IN THE PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SMALL AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
EVEN WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW A DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AT 850 ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND HAD HIGHS FOLLOW
SUIT WITH AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE GREATEST.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SYSTEM. NOW LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND HAVE INCREASED POPS THERE ACCORDINGLY.
WEDNESDAY COULD SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS
COULD SEE PRECIP START OUT AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN RAIN
IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURE-WISE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
A LITTLE WARMER SO ACCEPTED THIS FROM THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS DUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN...AND EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK VERY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME SO LEFT POPS AT SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL. ONLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST 12 OR SO HOURS
AT LAF...AND PERHAPS IND/HUF/BMG. BORDER BETWEEN MVFR CEILINGS AND
VFR IS JUST SOUTH OF THOSE THREE SITES AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
FLUCTUATING CATEGORIES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW BEFORE
VFR RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS HAVE BEGUN GUSTING AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA...WITH ANOTHER SLIGHTLY WEAKER TROUGH NOTED
UPSTREAM...WILL JUST GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE GUSTS THROUGH THE NIGHT
ALTHOUGH WEAKEN THEM AS TIME GOES ON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
LIGHT GUSTINESS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND HAVE INCLUDED GUSTS INTO THE
MID TEENS RANGE DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF
THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 250443
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1143 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL AND BRING OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND NEXT
WEEKEND UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1015 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE EARLIER FORECAST IS WELL SUPPORTED BY CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
DOES NOT NEED MAJOR CHANGES.

SOME CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO FORECASTING FLURRIES INSTEAD OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN CWA. THERE IS LITTLE OR NOTHING OCCURRING
RIGHT NOW AND THE BEST FORCING IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.

HOWEVER THE HOURLY RAPID REFRESH INTRODUCES A FEW WEAK ECHOES IN
THAT AREA LATE TONIGHT...PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH NOW
CLOSE TO THE MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH SNOW UPSTREAM TO MAKE
THIS LOOK PLAUSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE PROSPECT OF SNOW SHOWERS IS NOT
HIGH IN ABSOLUTE TERMS...A SLIGHT CHANCE IS WORTH RETAINING.

FARTHER SOUTH NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE ANYTHING NOR IS THERE ANYTHING
UPSTREAM. WE MAY SEE A SNOW FLAKE HERE AND THERE IN THE PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SMALL AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
EVEN WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW A DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AT 850 ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND HAD HIGHS FOLLOW
SUIT WITH AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE GREATEST.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SYSTEM. NOW LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND HAVE INCREASED POPS THERE ACCORDINGLY.
WEDNESDAY COULD SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS
COULD SEE PRECIP START OUT AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN RAIN
IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURE-WISE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
A LITTLE WARMER SO ACCEPTED THIS FROM THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS DUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN...AND EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK VERY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME SO LEFT POPS AT SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL. ONLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST 12 OR SO HOURS
AT LAF...AND PERHAPS IND/HUF/BMG. BORDER BETWEEN MVFR CEILINGS AND
VFR IS JUST SOUTH OF THOSE THREE SITES AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
FLUCTUATING CATEGORIES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW BEFORE
VFR RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS HAVE BEGUN GUSTING AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA...WITH ANOTHER SLIGHTLY WEAKER TROUGH NOTED
UPSTREAM...WILL JUST GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE GUSTS THROUGH THE NIGHT
ALTHOUGH WEAKEN THEM AS TIME GOES ON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
LIGHT GUSTINESS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND HAVE INCLUDED GUSTS INTO THE
MID TEENS RANGE DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF
THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 250316
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1016 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL AND BRING OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND NEXT
WEEKEND UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1015 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE EARLIER FORECAST IS WELL SUPPORTED BY CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
DOES NOT NEED MAJOR CHANGES.

SOME CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO FORECASTING FLURRIES INSTEAD OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN CWA. THERE IS LITTLE OR NOTHING OCCURRING
RIGHT NOW AND THE BEST FORCING IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.

HOWEVER THE HOURLY RAPID REFRESH INTRODUCES A FEW WEAK ECHOES IN
THAT AREA LATE TONIGHT...PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH NOW
CLOSE TO THE MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH SNOW UPSTREAM TO MAKE
THIS LOOK PLAUSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE PROSPECT OF SNOW SHOWERS IS NOT
HIGH IN ABSOLUTE TERMS...A SLIGHT CHANCE IS WORTH RETAINING.

FARTHER SOUTH NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE ANYTHING NOR IS THERE ANYTHING
UPSTREAM. WE MAY SEE A SNOW FLAKE HERE AND THERE IN THE PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SMALL AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
EVEN WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW A DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AT 850 ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND HAD HIGHS FOLLOW
SUIT WITH AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE GREATEST.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SYSTEM. NOW LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND HAVE INCREASED POPS THERE ACCORDINGLY.
WEDNESDAY COULD SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS
COULD SEE PRECIP START OUT AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN RAIN
IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURE-WISE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
A LITTLE WARMER SO ACCEPTED THIS FROM THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS DUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN...AND EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK VERY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME SO LEFT POPS AT SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL. ONLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/03Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WINDS HAVE STOPPED GUSTING FOR THE MOST PART...SO WILL BE ABLE TO
DROP THE GUSTS WITH THE UPDATE. OTHERWISE TAF IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 610 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT LAF AND PERHAPS
IND. IND/HUF/BMG MORE ON THE BORDERLINE BETWEEN HIGHER END MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOW END VFR. LIKELY TO SEE SOME FLUCTUATING BETWEEN
THE TWO THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BUT MUCH LOWER THAN THAT APPEARS
UNLIKELY.

WINDS WILL GUST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE RELAXING A BIT TO DOWN
AROUND 08-12KT. WINDS WILL BE 10KT OR LESS TOMORROW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 250-280 THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 250316
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1016 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL AND BRING OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND NEXT
WEEKEND UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1015 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE EARLIER FORECAST IS WELL SUPPORTED BY CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
DOES NOT NEED MAJOR CHANGES.

SOME CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO FORECASTING FLURRIES INSTEAD OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN CWA. THERE IS LITTLE OR NOTHING OCCURRING
RIGHT NOW AND THE BEST FORCING IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.

HOWEVER THE HOURLY RAPID REFRESH INTRODUCES A FEW WEAK ECHOES IN
THAT AREA LATE TONIGHT...PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH NOW
CLOSE TO THE MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH SNOW UPSTREAM TO MAKE
THIS LOOK PLAUSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE PROSPECT OF SNOW SHOWERS IS NOT
HIGH IN ABSOLUTE TERMS...A SLIGHT CHANCE IS WORTH RETAINING.

FARTHER SOUTH NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE ANYTHING NOR IS THERE ANYTHING
UPSTREAM. WE MAY SEE A SNOW FLAKE HERE AND THERE IN THE PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SMALL AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
EVEN WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW A DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AT 850 ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND HAD HIGHS FOLLOW
SUIT WITH AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE GREATEST.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SYSTEM. NOW LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND HAVE INCREASED POPS THERE ACCORDINGLY.
WEDNESDAY COULD SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS
COULD SEE PRECIP START OUT AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN RAIN
IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURE-WISE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
A LITTLE WARMER SO ACCEPTED THIS FROM THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS DUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN...AND EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK VERY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME SO LEFT POPS AT SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL. ONLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/03Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WINDS HAVE STOPPED GUSTING FOR THE MOST PART...SO WILL BE ABLE TO
DROP THE GUSTS WITH THE UPDATE. OTHERWISE TAF IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 610 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT LAF AND PERHAPS
IND. IND/HUF/BMG MORE ON THE BORDERLINE BETWEEN HIGHER END MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOW END VFR. LIKELY TO SEE SOME FLUCTUATING BETWEEN
THE TWO THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BUT MUCH LOWER THAN THAT APPEARS
UNLIKELY.

WINDS WILL GUST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE RELAXING A BIT TO DOWN
AROUND 08-12KT. WINDS WILL BE 10KT OR LESS TOMORROW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 250-280 THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 250213
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
913 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL AND BRING OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND NEXT
WEEKEND UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
FROM UPPER LOW ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY IN THE NORTH AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY STRONG GRADIENT STAYS
ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND HOLDING ON THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 MPH LATE TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OR SO BUT END IT IN
THE SOUTHEAST WHERE GUSTS HAVE DROPPED BACK INTO THE 20-35 MPH
RANGE AND SHOULD STAY THERE OR DECREASE AS LOW LIFTS AWAY.

WITH LITTLE UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SNOW GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION IF ANY.

FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE OVERNIGHT USED A GUIDANCE AVERAGE IN THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30. WHILE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THINK
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SMALL AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
EVEN WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW A DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AT 850 ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND HAD HIGHS FOLLOW
SUIT WITH AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE GREATEST.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SYSTEM. NOW LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND HAVE INCREASED POPS THERE ACCORDINGLY.
WEDNESDAY COULD SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS
COULD SEE PRECIP START OUT AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN RAIN
IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURE-WISE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
A LITTLE WARMER SO ACCEPTED THIS FROM THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS DUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN...AND EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK VERY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME SO LEFT POPS AT SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL. ONLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/03Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WINDS HAVE STOPPED GUSTING FOR THE MOST PART...SO WILL BE ABLE TO
DROP THE GUSTS WITH THE UPDATE. OTHERWISE TAF IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 610 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT LAF AND PERHAPS
IND. IND/HUF/BMG MORE ON THE BORDERLINE BETWEEN HIGHER END MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOW END VFR. LIKELY TO SEE SOME FLUCTUATING BETWEEN
THE TWO THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BUT MUCH LOWER THAN THAT APPEARS
UNLIKELY.

WINDS WILL GUST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE RELAXING A BIT TO DOWN
AROUND 08-12KT. WINDS WILL BE 10KT OR LESS TOMORROW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 250-280 THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 250213
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
913 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL AND BRING OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND NEXT
WEEKEND UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
FROM UPPER LOW ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY IN THE NORTH AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY STRONG GRADIENT STAYS
ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND HOLDING ON THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 MPH LATE TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OR SO BUT END IT IN
THE SOUTHEAST WHERE GUSTS HAVE DROPPED BACK INTO THE 20-35 MPH
RANGE AND SHOULD STAY THERE OR DECREASE AS LOW LIFTS AWAY.

WITH LITTLE UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SNOW GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION IF ANY.

FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE OVERNIGHT USED A GUIDANCE AVERAGE IN THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30. WHILE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THINK
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SMALL AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
EVEN WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW A DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AT 850 ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND HAD HIGHS FOLLOW
SUIT WITH AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE GREATEST.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SYSTEM. NOW LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND HAVE INCREASED POPS THERE ACCORDINGLY.
WEDNESDAY COULD SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS
COULD SEE PRECIP START OUT AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN RAIN
IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURE-WISE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
A LITTLE WARMER SO ACCEPTED THIS FROM THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS DUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN...AND EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK VERY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME SO LEFT POPS AT SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL. ONLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/03Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WINDS HAVE STOPPED GUSTING FOR THE MOST PART...SO WILL BE ABLE TO
DROP THE GUSTS WITH THE UPDATE. OTHERWISE TAF IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 610 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT LAF AND PERHAPS
IND. IND/HUF/BMG MORE ON THE BORDERLINE BETWEEN HIGHER END MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOW END VFR. LIKELY TO SEE SOME FLUCTUATING BETWEEN
THE TWO THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BUT MUCH LOWER THAN THAT APPEARS
UNLIKELY.

WINDS WILL GUST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE RELAXING A BIT TO DOWN
AROUND 08-12KT. WINDS WILL BE 10KT OR LESS TOMORROW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 250-280 THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 242310
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
610 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL AND BRING OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND NEXT
WEEKEND UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
FROM UPPER LOW ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY IN THE NORTH AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY STRONG GRADIENT STAYS
ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND HOLDING ON THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 MPH LATE TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OR SO BUT END IT IN
THE SOUTHEAST WHERE GUSTS HAVE DROPPED BACK INTO THE 20-35 MPH
RANGE AND SHOULD STAY THERE OR DECREASE AS LOW LIFTS AWAY.

WITH LITTLE UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SNOW GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION IF ANY.

FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE OVERNIGHT USED A GUIDANCE AVERAGE IN THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30. WHILE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THINK
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SMALL AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
EVEN WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW A DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AT 850 ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND HAD HIGHS FOLLOW
SUIT WITH AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE GREATEST.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SYSTEM. NOW LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND HAVE INCREASED POPS THERE ACCORDINGLY.
WEDNESDAY COULD SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS
COULD SEE PRECIP START OUT AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN RAIN
IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURE-WISE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
A LITTLE WARMER SO ACCEPTED THIS FROM THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS DUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN...AND EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK VERY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME SO LEFT POPS AT SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL. ONLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 610 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT LAF AND PERHAPS
IND. IND/HUF/BMG MORE ON THE BORDERLINE BETWEEN HIGHER END MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOW END VFR. LIKELY TO SEE SOME FLUCTUATING BETWEEN
THE TWO THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BUT MUCH LOWER THAN THAT APPEARS
UNLIKELY.

WINDS WILL GUST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE RELAXING A BIT TO DOWN
AROUND 08-12KT. WINDS WILL BE 10KT OR LESS TOMORROW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 250-280 THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 242310
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
610 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL AND BRING OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND NEXT
WEEKEND UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
FROM UPPER LOW ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY IN THE NORTH AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY STRONG GRADIENT STAYS
ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND HOLDING ON THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 MPH LATE TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OR SO BUT END IT IN
THE SOUTHEAST WHERE GUSTS HAVE DROPPED BACK INTO THE 20-35 MPH
RANGE AND SHOULD STAY THERE OR DECREASE AS LOW LIFTS AWAY.

WITH LITTLE UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SNOW GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION IF ANY.

FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE OVERNIGHT USED A GUIDANCE AVERAGE IN THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30. WHILE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THINK
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SMALL AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
EVEN WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW A DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AT 850 ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND HAD HIGHS FOLLOW
SUIT WITH AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE GREATEST.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SYSTEM. NOW LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND HAVE INCREASED POPS THERE ACCORDINGLY.
WEDNESDAY COULD SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS
COULD SEE PRECIP START OUT AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN RAIN
IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURE-WISE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
A LITTLE WARMER SO ACCEPTED THIS FROM THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS DUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN...AND EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK VERY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME SO LEFT POPS AT SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL. ONLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 610 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT LAF AND PERHAPS
IND. IND/HUF/BMG MORE ON THE BORDERLINE BETWEEN HIGHER END MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOW END VFR. LIKELY TO SEE SOME FLUCTUATING BETWEEN
THE TWO THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BUT MUCH LOWER THAN THAT APPEARS
UNLIKELY.

WINDS WILL GUST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE RELAXING A BIT TO DOWN
AROUND 08-12KT. WINDS WILL BE 10KT OR LESS TOMORROW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 250-280 THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 242032
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
332 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL AND BRING OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND NEXT
WEEKEND UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
FROM UPPER LOW ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY IN THE NORTH AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY STRONG GRADIENT STAYS
ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND HOLDING ON THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 MPH LATE TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OR SO BUT END IT IN
THE SOUTHEAST WHERE GUSTS HAVE DROPPED BACK INTO THE 20-35 MPH
RANGE AND SHOULD STAY THERE OR DECREASE AS LOW LIFTS AWAY.

WITH LITTLE UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SNOW GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION IF ANY.

FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE OVERNIGHT USED A GUIDANCE AVERAGE IN THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30. WHILE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THINK WINDS
AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SMALL AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
EVEN WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW A DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AT 850 ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND HAD HIGHS FOLLOW
SUIT WITH AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE GREATEST.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SYSTEM. NOW LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND HAVE INCREASED POPS THERE ACCORDINGLY.
WEDNESDAY COULD SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS
COULD SEE PRECIP START OUT AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN RAIN
IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURE-WISE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING A
LITTLE WARMER SO ACCEPTED THIS FROM THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 232 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS DUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN...AND EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK VERY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME SO LEFT POPS AT SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL. ONLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 242100Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 315 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. INDICATED
EITHER A PREVAILING -SHSN OR A TEMPO GROUP UNTIL EVENING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WHICH ARE DEVELOPING
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. PER RECENT OBS NOT EXPECTING ANY REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY...HOWEVER IT/S POSSIBLE A FEW STRONGER SHSN MAY
BRIEFLY DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT A FEW OF THE SITES.

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. STRONG WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A LITTLE...THEN BECOME 10
KT OR LESS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ031-038-
040>042-049.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-029-030-036-
037-039-046>048-055>057-064-065-072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 242032
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
332 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL AND BRING OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND NEXT
WEEKEND UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
FROM UPPER LOW ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY IN THE NORTH AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY STRONG GRADIENT STAYS
ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND HOLDING ON THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 MPH LATE TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OR SO BUT END IT IN
THE SOUTHEAST WHERE GUSTS HAVE DROPPED BACK INTO THE 20-35 MPH
RANGE AND SHOULD STAY THERE OR DECREASE AS LOW LIFTS AWAY.

WITH LITTLE UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SNOW GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION IF ANY.

FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE OVERNIGHT USED A GUIDANCE AVERAGE IN THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30. WHILE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THINK WINDS
AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SMALL AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
EVEN WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW A DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AT 850 ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND HAD HIGHS FOLLOW
SUIT WITH AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE GREATEST.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SYSTEM. NOW LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND HAVE INCREASED POPS THERE ACCORDINGLY.
WEDNESDAY COULD SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS
COULD SEE PRECIP START OUT AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN RAIN
IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURE-WISE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING A
LITTLE WARMER SO ACCEPTED THIS FROM THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 232 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS DUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN...AND EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK VERY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME SO LEFT POPS AT SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL. ONLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 242100Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 315 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. INDICATED
EITHER A PREVAILING -SHSN OR A TEMPO GROUP UNTIL EVENING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WHICH ARE DEVELOPING
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. PER RECENT OBS NOT EXPECTING ANY REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY...HOWEVER IT/S POSSIBLE A FEW STRONGER SHSN MAY
BRIEFLY DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT A FEW OF THE SITES.

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. STRONG WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A LITTLE...THEN BECOME 10
KT OR LESS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ031-038-
040>042-049.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-029-030-036-
037-039-046>048-055>057-064-065-072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 242015
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA LATER TODAY BEHIND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE AREA.
AS A RESULT...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. AFTER A
CHILLY BUT DRY DAY TOMORROW...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. FURTHER OUT...THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BE COLD BUT DRY...AND PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1016 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...REMOVED THUNDER CHANCES WITH THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA AND ALL THUNDER OFF TO THE EAST. DECREASED POPS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH BUT ADDED SOME LOW POPS TO THE
SOUTH BASED ON RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP AND WEAK WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO TRANSITIONED TO RAIN SNOW MIX A LITTLE
FASTER IN THE NORTHWEST BASED ON CURRENT OBS OF SNOW IN
ILLINOIS...BUT STILL THINK THE MAJORITY OF THAT WILL HEAD OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND MISS THE FORECAST AREA. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IF ANY ACCUMULATION. BUMPED HIGH END OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN
THE NPW. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS...AS WELL AS PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS OHIO...AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS ILLINOIS. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
ILLINOIS AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. FORCING FROM
THE COLD FRONT WILL JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...BEST FORCING WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS
A RESULT...WILL ONLY CARRY MENTION OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA INTO TONIGHT...AND WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL
SINCE MOST MOISTURE WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL START OUT IN THE 50S THIS MORNING...BUT QUICKLY FALL
INTO THE MID 30S THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS COLDER AIR
ENTERS THE AREA. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST. PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. AS TEMPS
FALL ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.
MODELS HAVE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY THOUGH...SO
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW...LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S. THE MAV CONTINUES TO LOOK A TAD TOO WARM...SO
STUCK CLOSER TO A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 232 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS DUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN...AND EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK VERY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME SO LEFT POPS AT SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL. ONLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 242100Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 315 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. INDICATED
EITHER A PREVAILING -SHSN OR A TEMPO GROUP UNTIL EVENING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WHICH ARE DEVELOPING
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. PER RECENT OBS NOT EXPECTING ANY REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY...HOWEVER IT/S POSSIBLE A FEW STRONGER SHSN MAY
BRIEFLY DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT A FEW OF THE SITES.

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. STRONG WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A LITTLE...THEN BECOME 10
KT OR LESS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>030-
035>037-039-043>048-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ031-038-
040>042-049.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 242015
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA LATER TODAY BEHIND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE AREA.
AS A RESULT...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. AFTER A
CHILLY BUT DRY DAY TOMORROW...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. FURTHER OUT...THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BE COLD BUT DRY...AND PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1016 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...REMOVED THUNDER CHANCES WITH THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA AND ALL THUNDER OFF TO THE EAST. DECREASED POPS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH BUT ADDED SOME LOW POPS TO THE
SOUTH BASED ON RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP AND WEAK WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO TRANSITIONED TO RAIN SNOW MIX A LITTLE
FASTER IN THE NORTHWEST BASED ON CURRENT OBS OF SNOW IN
ILLINOIS...BUT STILL THINK THE MAJORITY OF THAT WILL HEAD OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND MISS THE FORECAST AREA. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IF ANY ACCUMULATION. BUMPED HIGH END OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN
THE NPW. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS...AS WELL AS PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS OHIO...AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS ILLINOIS. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
ILLINOIS AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. FORCING FROM
THE COLD FRONT WILL JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...BEST FORCING WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS
A RESULT...WILL ONLY CARRY MENTION OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA INTO TONIGHT...AND WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL
SINCE MOST MOISTURE WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL START OUT IN THE 50S THIS MORNING...BUT QUICKLY FALL
INTO THE MID 30S THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS COLDER AIR
ENTERS THE AREA. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST. PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. AS TEMPS
FALL ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.
MODELS HAVE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY THOUGH...SO
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW...LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S. THE MAV CONTINUES TO LOOK A TAD TOO WARM...SO
STUCK CLOSER TO A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 232 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS DUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN...AND EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK VERY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME SO LEFT POPS AT SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL. ONLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 242100Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 315 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. INDICATED
EITHER A PREVAILING -SHSN OR A TEMPO GROUP UNTIL EVENING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WHICH ARE DEVELOPING
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. PER RECENT OBS NOT EXPECTING ANY REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY...HOWEVER IT/S POSSIBLE A FEW STRONGER SHSN MAY
BRIEFLY DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT A FEW OF THE SITES.

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. STRONG WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A LITTLE...THEN BECOME 10
KT OR LESS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>030-
035>037-039-043>048-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ031-038-
040>042-049.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 241933
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
233 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA LATER TODAY BEHIND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE AREA.
AS A RESULT...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. AFTER A
CHILLY BUT DRY DAY TOMORROW...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. FURTHER OUT...THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BE COLD BUT DRY...AND PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1016 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...REMOVED THUNDER CHANCES WITH THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA AND ALL THUNDER OFF TO THE EAST. DECREASED POPS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH BUT ADDED SOME LOW POPS TO THE
SOUTH BASED ON RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP AND WEAK WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO TRANSITIONED TO RAIN SNOW MIX A LITTLE
FASTER IN THE NORTHWEST BASED ON CURRENT OBS OF SNOW IN
ILLINOIS...BUT STILL THINK THE MAJORITY OF THAT WILL HEAD OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND MISS THE FORECAST AREA. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IF ANY ACCUMULATION. BUMPED HIGH END OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN
THE NPW. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS...AS WELL AS PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS OHIO...AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS ILLINOIS. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
ILLINOIS AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. FORCING FROM
THE COLD FRONT WILL JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...BEST FORCING WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS
A RESULT...WILL ONLY CARRY MENTION OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA INTO TONIGHT...AND WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL
SINCE MOST MOISTURE WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL START OUT IN THE 50S THIS MORNING...BUT QUICKLY FALL
INTO THE MID 30S THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS COLDER AIR
ENTERS THE AREA. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST. PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. AS TEMPS
FALL ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.
MODELS HAVE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY THOUGH...SO
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW...LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S. THE MAV CONTINUES TO LOOK A TAD TOO WARM...SO
STUCK CLOSER TO A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 232 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS DUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN...AND EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK VERY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME SO LEFT POPS AT SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL. ONLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241800Z TAF ISSUANCE...

ISSUED AT 1152 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. INDICATED EITHER A PREVAILING -SHSN OR A TEMPO GROUP
FOR THE FIRST 3-4 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES WHICH ARE DEVELOPING
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. PER RECENT OBS NOT EXPECTING ANY REDUCTIONS
IN VIS...HOWEVER IT/S POSSIBLE A FEW STRONGER SHSN MAY POP UP AND
BRIEFLY DROP CONDITIONS TO IFR AT A FEW OF THE SITES. CHANCES NOT
HIGH/CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THIS AT THIS TIME...BUT IT/S A
POSSIBILITY.

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. STRONG WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A LITTLE...THEN BECOME 10
KT OR LESS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>030-
035>037-039-043>048-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ031-038-
040>042-049.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 241700
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1200 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA LATER TODAY BEHIND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE AREA.
AS A RESULT...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. AFTER A
CHILLY BUT DRY DAY TOMORROW...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. FURTHER OUT...THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BE COLD BUT DRY...AND PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1016 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...REMOVED THUNDER CHANCES WITH THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA AND ALL THUNDER OFF TO THE EAST. DECREASED POPS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH BUT ADDED SOME LOW POPS TO THE
SOUTH BASED ON RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP AND WEAK WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO TRANSITIONED TO RAIN SNOW MIX A LITTLE
FASTER IN THE NORTHWEST BASED ON CURRENT OBS OF SNOW IN
ILLINOIS...BUT STILL THINK THE MAJORITY OF THAT WILL HEAD OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND MISS THE FORECAST AREA. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IF ANY ACCUMULATION. BUMPED HIGH END OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN
THE NPW. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS...AS WELL AS PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS OHIO...AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS ILLINOIS. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
ILLINOIS AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. FORCING FROM
THE COLD FRONT WILL JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...BEST FORCING WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS
A RESULT...WILL ONLY CARRY MENTION OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA INTO TONIGHT...AND WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL
SINCE MOST MOISTURE WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL START OUT IN THE 50S THIS MORNING...BUT QUICKLY FALL
INTO THE MID 30S THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS COLDER AIR
ENTERS THE AREA. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST. PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. AS TEMPS
FALL ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.
MODELS HAVE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY THOUGH...SO
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW...LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S. THE MAV CONTINUES TO LOOK A TAD TOO WARM...SO
STUCK CLOSER TO A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

IN THE LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A PROGRESSIVE SOMEWHAT ZONAL UPPER
FLOW. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST TO BE REPLACED BY A WEAKER UPPER
TROUGH BY THE END OF DAY 7.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY ADDED A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR REGION AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST.  OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE UPPER MI9WEST
MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND ON TO THE
EAST COAST.  SOME MODELS INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTH FRIDAY...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS INDICATE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.  THEY ALL GENERATE SOME PRECIP
BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING IT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY.

MODELS HAVE TERNED A LITTLE WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND AND ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIQUID.  CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT
WITH A MOS BLEND EARLY ON AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241800Z TAF ISSUANCE...

ISSUED AT 1152 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. INDICATED EITHER A PREVAILING -SHSN OR A TEMPO GROUP
FOR THE FIRST 3-4 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES WHICH ARE DEVELOPING
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. PER RECENT OBS NOT EXPECTING ANY REDUCTIONS
IN VIS...HOWEVER IT/S POSSIBLE A FEW STRONGER SHSN MAY POP UP AND
BRIEFLY DROP CONDITIONS TO IFR AT A FEW OF THE SITES. CHANCES NOT
HIGH/CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THIS AT THIS TIME...BUT IT/S A
POSSIBILITY.

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. STRONG WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A LITTLE...THEN BECOME 10
KT OR LESS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>030-
035>037-039-043>048-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ031-038-
040>042-049.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 241700
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1200 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA LATER TODAY BEHIND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE AREA.
AS A RESULT...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. AFTER A
CHILLY BUT DRY DAY TOMORROW...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. FURTHER OUT...THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BE COLD BUT DRY...AND PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1016 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...REMOVED THUNDER CHANCES WITH THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA AND ALL THUNDER OFF TO THE EAST. DECREASED POPS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH BUT ADDED SOME LOW POPS TO THE
SOUTH BASED ON RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP AND WEAK WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO TRANSITIONED TO RAIN SNOW MIX A LITTLE
FASTER IN THE NORTHWEST BASED ON CURRENT OBS OF SNOW IN
ILLINOIS...BUT STILL THINK THE MAJORITY OF THAT WILL HEAD OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND MISS THE FORECAST AREA. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IF ANY ACCUMULATION. BUMPED HIGH END OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN
THE NPW. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS...AS WELL AS PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS OHIO...AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS ILLINOIS. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
ILLINOIS AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. FORCING FROM
THE COLD FRONT WILL JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...BEST FORCING WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS
A RESULT...WILL ONLY CARRY MENTION OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA INTO TONIGHT...AND WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL
SINCE MOST MOISTURE WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL START OUT IN THE 50S THIS MORNING...BUT QUICKLY FALL
INTO THE MID 30S THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS COLDER AIR
ENTERS THE AREA. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST. PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. AS TEMPS
FALL ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.
MODELS HAVE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY THOUGH...SO
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW...LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S. THE MAV CONTINUES TO LOOK A TAD TOO WARM...SO
STUCK CLOSER TO A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

IN THE LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A PROGRESSIVE SOMEWHAT ZONAL UPPER
FLOW. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST TO BE REPLACED BY A WEAKER UPPER
TROUGH BY THE END OF DAY 7.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY ADDED A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR REGION AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST.  OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE UPPER MI9WEST
MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND ON TO THE
EAST COAST.  SOME MODELS INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTH FRIDAY...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS INDICATE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.  THEY ALL GENERATE SOME PRECIP
BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING IT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY.

MODELS HAVE TERNED A LITTLE WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND AND ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIQUID.  CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT
WITH A MOS BLEND EARLY ON AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241800Z TAF ISSUANCE...

ISSUED AT 1152 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. INDICATED EITHER A PREVAILING -SHSN OR A TEMPO GROUP
FOR THE FIRST 3-4 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES WHICH ARE DEVELOPING
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. PER RECENT OBS NOT EXPECTING ANY REDUCTIONS
IN VIS...HOWEVER IT/S POSSIBLE A FEW STRONGER SHSN MAY POP UP AND
BRIEFLY DROP CONDITIONS TO IFR AT A FEW OF THE SITES. CHANCES NOT
HIGH/CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THIS AT THIS TIME...BUT IT/S A
POSSIBILITY.

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. STRONG WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A LITTLE...THEN BECOME 10
KT OR LESS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>030-
035>037-039-043>048-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ031-038-
040>042-049.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 241525
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA LATER TODAY BEHIND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE AREA.
AS A RESULT...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. AFTER A
CHILLY BUT DRY DAY TOMORROW...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. FURTHER OUT...THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BE COLD BUT DRY...AND PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1016 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...REMOVED THUNDER CHANCES WITH THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA AND ALL THUNDER OFF TO THE EAST. DECREASED POPS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH BUT ADDED SOME LOW POPS TO THE
SOUTH BASED ON RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP AND WEAK WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO TRANSITIONED TO RAIN SNOW MIX A LITTLE
FASTER IN THE NORTHWEST BASED ON CURRENT OBS OF SNOW IN
ILLINOIS...BUT STILL THINK THE MAJORITY OF THAT WILL HEAD OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND MISS THE FORECAST AREA. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IF ANY ACCUMULATION. BUMPED HIGH END OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN
THE NPW. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS...AS WELL AS PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS OHIO...AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS ILLINOIS. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
ILLINOIS AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. FORCING FROM
THE COLD FRONT WILL JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...BEST FORCING WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS
A RESULT...WILL ONLY CARRY MENTION OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA INTO TONIGHT...AND WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL
SINCE MOST MOISTURE WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL START OUT IN THE 50S THIS MORNING...BUT QUICKLY FALL
INTO THE MID 30S THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS COLDER AIR
ENTERS THE AREA. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST. PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. AS TEMPS
FALL ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.
MODELS HAVE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY THOUGH...SO
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW...LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S. THE MAV CONTINUES TO LOOK A TAD TOO WARM...SO
STUCK CLOSER TO A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

IN THE LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A PROGRESSIVE SOMEWHAT ZONAL UPPER
FLOW. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST TO BE REPLACED BY A WEAKER UPPER
TROUGH BY THE END OF DAY 7.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY ADDED A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR REGION AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST.  OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE UPPER MI9WEST
MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND ON TO THE
EAST COAST.  SOME MODELS INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTH FRIDAY...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS INDICATE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.  THEY ALL GENERATE SOME PRECIP
BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING IT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY.

MODELS HAVE TERNED A LITTLE WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND AND ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIQUID.  CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT
WITH A MOS BLEND EARLY ON AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241200Z TAF ISSUANCE...

ISSUED AT 923 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

1420Z UPDATE...VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS MORNING/S UPDATE.
ONLY NEEDED TO TWEAK THE WINDS AND REMOVE -SHRA AND REPLACE WITH
VCSH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS WITH WORSE CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

RADAR INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT KIND AND KBMG FOR THE 1ST HOUR BEFORE
THEY MOVE ON TO THE EAST.

MEANWHILE STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH ALONG THE INDIANA ILLINOIS BORDER.  THIS
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS INDIANA THIS MORNING. RADAR
LOOPS AND MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE A LITTLE...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN MVFR
CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND WELL INTO TONIGHT.

MORE SIGNIFICANT WILL BE STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25
KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A
LITTLE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>030-
035>037-039-043>048-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ031-038-
040>042-049.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...SMF/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 241525
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA LATER TODAY BEHIND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE AREA.
AS A RESULT...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. AFTER A
CHILLY BUT DRY DAY TOMORROW...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. FURTHER OUT...THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BE COLD BUT DRY...AND PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1016 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...REMOVED THUNDER CHANCES WITH THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA AND ALL THUNDER OFF TO THE EAST. DECREASED POPS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH BUT ADDED SOME LOW POPS TO THE
SOUTH BASED ON RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP AND WEAK WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO TRANSITIONED TO RAIN SNOW MIX A LITTLE
FASTER IN THE NORTHWEST BASED ON CURRENT OBS OF SNOW IN
ILLINOIS...BUT STILL THINK THE MAJORITY OF THAT WILL HEAD OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND MISS THE FORECAST AREA. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IF ANY ACCUMULATION. BUMPED HIGH END OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN
THE NPW. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS...AS WELL AS PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS OHIO...AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS ILLINOIS. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
ILLINOIS AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. FORCING FROM
THE COLD FRONT WILL JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...BEST FORCING WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS
A RESULT...WILL ONLY CARRY MENTION OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA INTO TONIGHT...AND WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL
SINCE MOST MOISTURE WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL START OUT IN THE 50S THIS MORNING...BUT QUICKLY FALL
INTO THE MID 30S THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS COLDER AIR
ENTERS THE AREA. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST. PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. AS TEMPS
FALL ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.
MODELS HAVE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY THOUGH...SO
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW...LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S. THE MAV CONTINUES TO LOOK A TAD TOO WARM...SO
STUCK CLOSER TO A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

IN THE LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A PROGRESSIVE SOMEWHAT ZONAL UPPER
FLOW. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST TO BE REPLACED BY A WEAKER UPPER
TROUGH BY THE END OF DAY 7.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY ADDED A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR REGION AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST.  OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE UPPER MI9WEST
MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND ON TO THE
EAST COAST.  SOME MODELS INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTH FRIDAY...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS INDICATE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.  THEY ALL GENERATE SOME PRECIP
BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING IT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY.

MODELS HAVE TERNED A LITTLE WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND AND ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIQUID.  CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT
WITH A MOS BLEND EARLY ON AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241200Z TAF ISSUANCE...

ISSUED AT 923 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

1420Z UPDATE...VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS MORNING/S UPDATE.
ONLY NEEDED TO TWEAK THE WINDS AND REMOVE -SHRA AND REPLACE WITH
VCSH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS WITH WORSE CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

RADAR INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT KIND AND KBMG FOR THE 1ST HOUR BEFORE
THEY MOVE ON TO THE EAST.

MEANWHILE STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH ALONG THE INDIANA ILLINOIS BORDER.  THIS
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS INDIANA THIS MORNING. RADAR
LOOPS AND MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE A LITTLE...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN MVFR
CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND WELL INTO TONIGHT.

MORE SIGNIFICANT WILL BE STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25
KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A
LITTLE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>030-
035>037-039-043>048-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ031-038-
040>042-049.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...SMF/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 241426
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
926 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA LATER TODAY BEHIND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE AREA.
AS A RESULT...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. AFTER A
CHILLY BUT DRY DAY TOMORROW...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. FURTHER OUT...THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BE COLD BUT DRY...AND PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS...AS WELL AS PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS OHIO...AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS ILLINOIS. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
ILLINOIS AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. FORCING FROM
THE COLD FRONT WILL JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...BEST FORCING WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS
A RESULT...WILL ONLY CARRY MENTION OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA INTO TONIGHT...AND WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL
SINCE MOST MOISTURE WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL START OUT IN THE 50S THIS MORNING...BUT QUICKLY FALL
INTO THE MID 30S THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS COLDER AIR
ENTERS THE AREA. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST. PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. AS TEMPS
FALL ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.
MODELS HAVE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY THOUGH...SO
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW...LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S. THE MAV CONTINUES TO LOOK A TAD TOO WARM...SO
STUCK CLOSER TO A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

IN THE LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A PROGRESSIVE SOMEWHAT ZONAL UPPER
FLOW. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST TO BE REPLACED BY A WEAKER UPPER
TROUGH BY THE END OF DAY 7.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY ADDED A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR REGION AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST.  OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE UPPER MI9WEST
MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND ON TO THE
EAST COAST.  SOME MODELS INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTH FRIDAY...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS INDICATE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.  THEY ALL GENERATE SOME PRECIP
BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING IT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY.

MODELS HAVE TERNED A LITTLE WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND AND ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIQUID.  CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT
WITH A MOS BLEND EARLY ON AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241200Z TAF ISSUANCE...

ISSUED AT 923 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

1420Z UPDATE...VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS MORNING/S UPDATE.
ONLY NEEDED TO TWEAK THE WINDS AND REMOVE -SHRA AND REPLACE WITH
VCSH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS WITH WORSE CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

RADAR INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT KIND AND KBMG FOR THE 1ST HOUR BEFORE
THEY MOVE ON TO THE EAST.

MEANWHILE STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH ALONG THE INDIANA ILLINOIS BORDER.  THIS
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS INDIANA THIS MORNING. RADAR
LOOPS AND MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE A LITTLE...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN MVFR
CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND WELL INTO TONIGHT.

MORE SIGNIFICANT WILL BE STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25
KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A
LITTLE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>030-
035>037-039-043>048-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ031-038-
040>042-049.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...SMF/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 241426
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
926 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA LATER TODAY BEHIND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE AREA.
AS A RESULT...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. AFTER A
CHILLY BUT DRY DAY TOMORROW...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. FURTHER OUT...THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BE COLD BUT DRY...AND PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS...AS WELL AS PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS OHIO...AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS ILLINOIS. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
ILLINOIS AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. FORCING FROM
THE COLD FRONT WILL JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...BEST FORCING WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS
A RESULT...WILL ONLY CARRY MENTION OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA INTO TONIGHT...AND WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL
SINCE MOST MOISTURE WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL START OUT IN THE 50S THIS MORNING...BUT QUICKLY FALL
INTO THE MID 30S THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS COLDER AIR
ENTERS THE AREA. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST. PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. AS TEMPS
FALL ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.
MODELS HAVE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY THOUGH...SO
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW...LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S. THE MAV CONTINUES TO LOOK A TAD TOO WARM...SO
STUCK CLOSER TO A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

IN THE LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A PROGRESSIVE SOMEWHAT ZONAL UPPER
FLOW. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST TO BE REPLACED BY A WEAKER UPPER
TROUGH BY THE END OF DAY 7.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY ADDED A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR REGION AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST.  OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE UPPER MI9WEST
MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND ON TO THE
EAST COAST.  SOME MODELS INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTH FRIDAY...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS INDICATE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.  THEY ALL GENERATE SOME PRECIP
BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING IT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY.

MODELS HAVE TERNED A LITTLE WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND AND ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIQUID.  CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT
WITH A MOS BLEND EARLY ON AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241200Z TAF ISSUANCE...

ISSUED AT 923 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

1420Z UPDATE...VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS MORNING/S UPDATE.
ONLY NEEDED TO TWEAK THE WINDS AND REMOVE -SHRA AND REPLACE WITH
VCSH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS WITH WORSE CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

RADAR INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT KIND AND KBMG FOR THE 1ST HOUR BEFORE
THEY MOVE ON TO THE EAST.

MEANWHILE STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH ALONG THE INDIANA ILLINOIS BORDER.  THIS
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS INDIANA THIS MORNING. RADAR
LOOPS AND MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE A LITTLE...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN MVFR
CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND WELL INTO TONIGHT.

MORE SIGNIFICANT WILL BE STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25
KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A
LITTLE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>030-
035>037-039-043>048-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ031-038-
040>042-049.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...SMF/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 241107
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
605 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA LATER TODAY BEHIND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE AREA.
AS A RESULT...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. AFTER A
CHILLY BUT DRY DAY TOMORROW...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. FURTHER OUT...THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BE COLD BUT DRY...AND PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS...AS WELL AS PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS OHIO...AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS ILLINOIS. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
ILLINOIS AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. FORCING FROM
THE COLD FRONT WILL JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...BEST FORCING WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS
A RESULT...WILL ONLY CARRY MENTION OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA INTO TONIGHT...AND WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL
SINCE MOST MOISTURE WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL START OUT IN THE 50S THIS MORNING...BUT QUICKLY FALL
INTO THE MID 30S THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS COLDER AIR
ENTERS THE AREA. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST. PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. AS TEMPS
FALL ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.
MODELS HAVE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY THOUGH...SO
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW...LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S. THE MAV CONTINUES TO LOOK A TAD TOO WARM...SO
STUCK CLOSER TO A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

IN THE LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A PROGRESSIVE SOMEWHAT ZONAL UPPER
FLOW. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST TO BE REPLACED BY A WEAKER UPPER
TROUGH BY THE END OF DAY 7.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY ADDED A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR REGION AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST.  OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE UPPER MI9WEST
MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND ON TO THE
EAST COAST.  SOME MODELS INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTH FRIDAY...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS INDICATE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.  THEY ALL GENERATE SOME PRECIP
BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING IT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY.

MODELS HAVE TERNED A LITTLE WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND AND ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIQUID.  CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT
WITH A MOS BLEND EARLY ON AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ISSUED AT 605 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WITH WORSE CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

RADAR INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT KIND AND KBMG FOR THE 1ST HOUR BEFORE
THEY MOVE ON TO THE EAST.

MEANWHILE STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH ALONG THE INDIANA ILLINOIS BORDER.  THIS
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS INDIANA THIS MORNING. RADAR
LOOPS AND MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE A LITTLE...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN MVFR
CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND WELL INTO TONIGHT.

MORE SIGNIFICANT WILL BE STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25
KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A
LITTLE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR INZ021-028>030-035>037-039-043>048-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR INZ031-038-040>042-049.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 240904
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
404 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM...LONG TERM
AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA LATER TODAY BEHIND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE AREA.
AS A RESULT...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. AFTER A
CHILLY BUT DRY DAY TOMORROW...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW ON WEDNSDAY. FURTHER OUT...THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BE COLD BUT DRY...AND PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS...AS WELL AS PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS OHIO...AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS ILLINOIS. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
ILLINOIS AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. FORCING FROM
THE COLD FRONT WILL JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...BEST FORCING WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE NORTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS
A RESULT...WILL ONLY CARRY MENTION OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA INTO TONIGHT...AND WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL
SINCE MOST MOISTURE WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL START OUT IN THE 50S THIS MORNING...BUT QUICKLY FALL
INTO THE MID 30S THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS COLDER AIR
ENTERS THE AREA. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST. PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. AS TEMPS
FALL ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.
MODELS HAVE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY THOUGH...SO
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW...LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S. THE MAV CONTINUES TO LOOK A TAD TOO WARM...SO
STUCK CLOSER TO A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

IN THE LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A PROGRESSIVE SOMEWHAT ZONAL UPPER
FLOW. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST TO BE REPLACED BY A WEAKER UPPER
TROUGH BY THE END OF DAY 7.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY ADDED A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR REGION AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST.  OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE UPPER MI9WEST
MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND ON TO THE
EAST COAST.  SOME MODELS INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTH FRIDAY...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS INDICATE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.  THEY ALL GENERATE SOME PRECIP
BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING IT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY.

MODELS HAVE TERNED A LITTLE WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND AND ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIQUID.  CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT
WITH A MOS BLEND EARLY ON AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/09Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 10-12
HOURS OF THE PERIOD.

RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. DRY PUNCH MOVING INTO THE AREA BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
LIKELY AT TIMES LATER IN THE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING.

COULD SEE SOME GUSTINESS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS A MORE POTENT THREAT EAST OF THE SITES WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE FAR MORE PRONOUNCED...AND AREA VAD WIND PROFILES
SUPPORT WINDS BELOW 2KFT NO MORE THAN 30-35KT AT THIS TIME...AND
GUSTINESS IMPLIES SHEAR ANYWAY.

AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES TOMORROW MORNING AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL HELP MIX SOME OF THIS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WIND GUSTS
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST MAY APPROACH AND EVEN OCCASIONALLY EXCEED
40KT AT THE SITES...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THUNDER WILL BE AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT WITH THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW...STRONG DYNAMICS...AND AT LEAST A SMALL
AMOUNT OF SHALLOW INSTABILITY...BUT WITH NO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR
PLACEMENT OF THE THREAT...CANNOT INCLUDE A MENTION AT THIS TIME.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR INZ021-028>030-035>037-039-043>048-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR INZ031-038-040>042-049.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...NIELD/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 240904
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
404 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM...LONG TERM
AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA LATER TODAY BEHIND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE AREA.
AS A RESULT...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. AFTER A
CHILLY BUT DRY DAY TOMORROW...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW ON WEDNSDAY. FURTHER OUT...THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BE COLD BUT DRY...AND PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS...AS WELL AS PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS OHIO...AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS ILLINOIS. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
ILLINOIS AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. FORCING FROM
THE COLD FRONT WILL JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...BEST FORCING WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE NORTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS
A RESULT...WILL ONLY CARRY MENTION OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA INTO TONIGHT...AND WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL
SINCE MOST MOISTURE WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL START OUT IN THE 50S THIS MORNING...BUT QUICKLY FALL
INTO THE MID 30S THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS COLDER AIR
ENTERS THE AREA. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST. PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. AS TEMPS
FALL ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.
MODELS HAVE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY THOUGH...SO
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW...LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S. THE MAV CONTINUES TO LOOK A TAD TOO WARM...SO
STUCK CLOSER TO A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

IN THE LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A PROGRESSIVE SOMEWHAT ZONAL UPPER
FLOW. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST TO BE REPLACED BY A WEAKER UPPER
TROUGH BY THE END OF DAY 7.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY ADDED A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR REGION AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST.  OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE UPPER MI9WEST
MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND ON TO THE
EAST COAST.  SOME MODELS INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTH FRIDAY...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS INDICATE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.  THEY ALL GENERATE SOME PRECIP
BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING IT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY.

MODELS HAVE TERNED A LITTLE WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND AND ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIQUID.  CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT
WITH A MOS BLEND EARLY ON AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/09Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 10-12
HOURS OF THE PERIOD.

RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. DRY PUNCH MOVING INTO THE AREA BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
LIKELY AT TIMES LATER IN THE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING.

COULD SEE SOME GUSTINESS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS A MORE POTENT THREAT EAST OF THE SITES WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE FAR MORE PRONOUNCED...AND AREA VAD WIND PROFILES
SUPPORT WINDS BELOW 2KFT NO MORE THAN 30-35KT AT THIS TIME...AND
GUSTINESS IMPLIES SHEAR ANYWAY.

AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES TOMORROW MORNING AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL HELP MIX SOME OF THIS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WIND GUSTS
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST MAY APPROACH AND EVEN OCCASIONALLY EXCEED
40KT AT THE SITES...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THUNDER WILL BE AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT WITH THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW...STRONG DYNAMICS...AND AT LEAST A SMALL
AMOUNT OF SHALLOW INSTABILITY...BUT WITH NO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR
PLACEMENT OF THE THREAT...CANNOT INCLUDE A MENTION AT THIS TIME.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR INZ021-028>030-035>037-039-043>048-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR INZ031-038-040>042-049.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...NIELD/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 240451
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1151 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO CENTRAL
INDIANA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COME WINDY AND
MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THANKSGIVING INTO SATURDAY WILL
BE COLD AND DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 959 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

DUAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF COALESCING
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INTENSIFYING. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE DOUBLE BARRELED LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WITH A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF THE
FRONT. TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S AS OF 0230Z.

FORECAST IS IN REALLY GOOD SHAPE...WITH JUST SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. INITIAL POCKET OF DRY
AIR LIFTING UP THROUGH EASTERN COUNTIES RIGHT NOW WITH THE MORE
EXPANSIVE DRY SLOT SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. HEAVIEST AREA OF RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE INDY METRO
AREA AND WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z. MANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALREADY AROUND 1.50 INCHES FOR
THE DAY.

WRF AND HRRR BOTH HAVE A NICE HANDLE ON THE RAINFALL COVERAGE
WITH A 3-4 HOUR DRY SLOT EXPANDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE BETWEEN 05-10Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL KEEP LOWER
POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...THEN RAMP THEM BACK UP TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI ARRIVES AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. HAVE BACKED OFF ON ISOLATED THUNDER TO LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA.

TEMPS SHOULD WARM A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OR REMAIN STEADY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLIP BACK TOWARDS DAYBREAK
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS ALREADY SEEING OBS WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30MPH
IN WESTERN KENTUCKY.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FOCUS IS ON WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THE MOST PART MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A
BLEND CAN BE USED...BUT GFS LOOKS TOO FAST WITH WEDNESDAY/S SYSTEM.
RELIED LESS ON GFS THEN.

LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT FORCING WITH THE COLD
FRONT...AND MOST MODELS ARE PUTTING OUT RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT AS
IT PASSES THROUGH. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY MORNING.
AS FRONT PASSES BY FORCING WILL WEAKEN SO LOWERED POPS AFTER IT GOES
BY.

FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA
TO GO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINDER OF NORTH HALF. AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN DURING THE DAY PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO
SNOW. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.

MAIN STORY MONDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. STRONG WINDS WILL BE NOT TOO
FAR OFF THE SURFACE...WITH 850MB WINDS OVER 50KT AND 925MB WINDS
OVER 40KT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
THESE PLUS COLD ADVECTION HELPING MIX THE WINDS DOWN WILL CREATE
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SREF FORECASTS SHOW HIGH
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 25KT ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY
AS WELL.

STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA IN THE
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WHERE WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 40 MPH AND WILL BE CLOSE
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. /GFS SHOWS EVEN HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...WITH
GUSTS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE NAM/. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES DECIDED TO GO WIND ADVISORY ACROSS ALL OF THE
AREA.

FOR MOST AREAS WENT 12Z-00Z...BUT IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ARRIVE LATER AND REMAIN A FACTOR LONGER...WENT 14Z-03Z.

UPPER TROUGH COULD STILL BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND FORCING LEADS TO ONLY LOW
POPS FOR NOW. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPERATURES WENT MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW MOST AREAS.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...ON MONDAY READINGS WILL FALL DURING THE
DAY. A MODEL BLEND LOOKS GOOD FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT. MAV MOS LOOKS
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO A
MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 224 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING MIX PRECIP CHANCES TO THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN ZONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS NEXT
DUE TO IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN/RAIN AND SNOW MIX/AND SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR VERY LIGHT AT
THIS TIME AND THIS IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IN THE
EXTENDED SO STUCK WITH 20 PERCENT POPS. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL. ONLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 10-12
HOURS OF THE PERIOD.

RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. DRY PUNCH MOVING INTO THE AREA BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
LIKELY AT TIMES LATER IN THE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING.

COULD SEE SOME GUSTINESS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS A MORE POTENT THREAT EAST OF THE SITES WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE FAR MORE PRONOUNCED...AND AREA VAD WIND PROFILES
SUPPORT WINDS BELOW 2KFT NO MORE THAN 30-35KT AT THIS TIME...AND
GUSTINESS IMPLIES SHEAR ANYWAY.

AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES TOMORROW MORNING AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL HELP MIX SOME OF THIS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WIND GUSTS
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST MAY APPROACH AND EVEN OCCASIONALLY EXCEED
40KT AT THE SITES...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THUNDER WILL BE AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT WITH THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW...STRONG DYNAMICS...AND AT LEAST A SMALL
AMOUNT OF SHALLOW INSTABILITY...BUT WITH NO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR
PLACEMENT OF THE THREAT...CANNOT INCLUDE A MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR INZ021-028>030-
035>037-039-043>048-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR INZ031-038-
040>042-049.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 240451
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1151 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO CENTRAL
INDIANA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COME WINDY AND
MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THANKSGIVING INTO SATURDAY WILL
BE COLD AND DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 959 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

DUAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF COALESCING
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INTENSIFYING. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE DOUBLE BARRELED LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WITH A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF THE
FRONT. TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S AS OF 0230Z.

FORECAST IS IN REALLY GOOD SHAPE...WITH JUST SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. INITIAL POCKET OF DRY
AIR LIFTING UP THROUGH EASTERN COUNTIES RIGHT NOW WITH THE MORE
EXPANSIVE DRY SLOT SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. HEAVIEST AREA OF RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE INDY METRO
AREA AND WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z. MANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALREADY AROUND 1.50 INCHES FOR
THE DAY.

WRF AND HRRR BOTH HAVE A NICE HANDLE ON THE RAINFALL COVERAGE
WITH A 3-4 HOUR DRY SLOT EXPANDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE BETWEEN 05-10Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL KEEP LOWER
POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...THEN RAMP THEM BACK UP TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI ARRIVES AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. HAVE BACKED OFF ON ISOLATED THUNDER TO LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA.

TEMPS SHOULD WARM A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OR REMAIN STEADY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLIP BACK TOWARDS DAYBREAK
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS ALREADY SEEING OBS WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30MPH
IN WESTERN KENTUCKY.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FOCUS IS ON WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THE MOST PART MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A
BLEND CAN BE USED...BUT GFS LOOKS TOO FAST WITH WEDNESDAY/S SYSTEM.
RELIED LESS ON GFS THEN.

LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT FORCING WITH THE COLD
FRONT...AND MOST MODELS ARE PUTTING OUT RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT AS
IT PASSES THROUGH. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY MORNING.
AS FRONT PASSES BY FORCING WILL WEAKEN SO LOWERED POPS AFTER IT GOES
BY.

FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA
TO GO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINDER OF NORTH HALF. AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN DURING THE DAY PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO
SNOW. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.

MAIN STORY MONDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. STRONG WINDS WILL BE NOT TOO
FAR OFF THE SURFACE...WITH 850MB WINDS OVER 50KT AND 925MB WINDS
OVER 40KT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
THESE PLUS COLD ADVECTION HELPING MIX THE WINDS DOWN WILL CREATE
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SREF FORECASTS SHOW HIGH
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 25KT ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY
AS WELL.

STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA IN THE
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WHERE WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 40 MPH AND WILL BE CLOSE
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. /GFS SHOWS EVEN HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...WITH
GUSTS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE NAM/. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES DECIDED TO GO WIND ADVISORY ACROSS ALL OF THE
AREA.

FOR MOST AREAS WENT 12Z-00Z...BUT IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ARRIVE LATER AND REMAIN A FACTOR LONGER...WENT 14Z-03Z.

UPPER TROUGH COULD STILL BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND FORCING LEADS TO ONLY LOW
POPS FOR NOW. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPERATURES WENT MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW MOST AREAS.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...ON MONDAY READINGS WILL FALL DURING THE
DAY. A MODEL BLEND LOOKS GOOD FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT. MAV MOS LOOKS
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO A
MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 224 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING MIX PRECIP CHANCES TO THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN ZONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS NEXT
DUE TO IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN/RAIN AND SNOW MIX/AND SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR VERY LIGHT AT
THIS TIME AND THIS IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IN THE
EXTENDED SO STUCK WITH 20 PERCENT POPS. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL. ONLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 10-12
HOURS OF THE PERIOD.

RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. DRY PUNCH MOVING INTO THE AREA BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
LIKELY AT TIMES LATER IN THE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING.

COULD SEE SOME GUSTINESS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS A MORE POTENT THREAT EAST OF THE SITES WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE FAR MORE PRONOUNCED...AND AREA VAD WIND PROFILES
SUPPORT WINDS BELOW 2KFT NO MORE THAN 30-35KT AT THIS TIME...AND
GUSTINESS IMPLIES SHEAR ANYWAY.

AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES TOMORROW MORNING AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL HELP MIX SOME OF THIS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WIND GUSTS
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST MAY APPROACH AND EVEN OCCASIONALLY EXCEED
40KT AT THE SITES...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THUNDER WILL BE AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT WITH THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW...STRONG DYNAMICS...AND AT LEAST A SMALL
AMOUNT OF SHALLOW INSTABILITY...BUT WITH NO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR
PLACEMENT OF THE THREAT...CANNOT INCLUDE A MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR INZ021-028>030-
035>037-039-043>048-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR INZ031-038-
040>042-049.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 240259
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
959 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO CENTRAL
INDIANA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COME WINDY AND
MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THANKSGIVING INTO SATURDAY WILL
BE COLD AND DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 959 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

DUAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF COALESCING
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INTENSIFYING. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE DOUBLE BARRELED LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WITH A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF THE
FRONT. TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S AS OF 0230Z.

FORECAST IS IN REALLY GOOD SHAPE...WITH JUST SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. INITIAL POCKET OF DRY
AIR LIFTING UP THROUGH EASTERN COUNTIES RIGHT NOW WITH THE MORE
EXPANSIVE DRY SLOT SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. HEAVIEST AREA OF RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE INDY METRO
AREA AND WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z. MANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALREADY AROUND 1.50 INCHES FOR
THE DAY.

WRF AND HRRR BOTH HAVE A NICE HANDLE ON THE RAINFALL COVERAGE
WITH A 3-4 HOUR DRY SLOT EXPANDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE BETWEEN 05-10Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL KEEP LOWER
POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...THEN RAMP THEM BACK UP TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI ARRIVES AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. HAVE BACKED OFF ON ISOLATED THUNDER TO LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA.

TEMPS SHOULD WARM A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OR REMAIN STEADY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLIP BACK TOWARDS DAYBREAK
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS ALREADY SEEING OBS WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30MPH
IN WESTERN KENTUCKY.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FOCUS IS ON WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THE MOST PART MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A
BLEND CAN BE USED...BUT GFS LOOKS TOO FAST WITH WEDNESDAY/S SYSTEM.
RELIED LESS ON GFS THEN.

LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT FORCING WITH THE COLD
FRONT...AND MOST MODELS ARE PUTTING OUT RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT AS
IT PASSES THROUGH. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY MORNING.
AS FRONT PASSES BY FORCING WILL WEAKEN SO LOWERED POPS AFTER IT GOES
BY.

FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA
TO GO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINDER OF NORTH HALF. AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN DURING THE DAY PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO
SNOW. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.

MAIN STORY MONDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. STRONG WINDS WILL BE NOT TOO
FAR OFF THE SURFACE...WITH 850MB WINDS OVER 50KT AND 925MB WINDS
OVER 40KT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
THESE PLUS COLD ADVECTION HELPING MIX THE WINDS DOWN WILL CREATE
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SREF FORECASTS SHOW HIGH
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 25KT ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY
AS WELL.

STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA IN THE
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WHERE WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 40 MPH AND WILL BE CLOSE
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. /GFS SHOWS EVEN HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...WITH
GUSTS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE NAM/. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES DECIDED TO GO WIND ADVISORY ACROSS ALL OF THE
AREA.

FOR MOST AREAS WENT 12Z-00Z...BUT IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ARRIVE LATER AND REMAIN A FACTOR LONGER...WENT 14Z-03Z.

UPPER TROUGH COULD STILL BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND FORCING LEADS TO ONLY LOW
POPS FOR NOW. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPERATURES WENT MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW MOST AREAS.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...ON MONDAY READINGS WILL FALL DURING THE
DAY. A MODEL BLEND LOOKS GOOD FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT. MAV MOS LOOKS
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO A
MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 224 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING MIX PRECIP CHANCES TO THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN ZONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS NEXT
DUE TO IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN/RAIN AND SNOW MIX/AND SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR VERY LIGHT AT
THIS TIME AND THIS IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IN THE
EXTENDED SO STUCK WITH 20 PERCENT POPS. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL. ONLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/03Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 927 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

NO CHANGES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 617 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR THROUGH THE FIRST 12 TO 14 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD MVFR AND THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
BORDERLINE VFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND IFR
RESTRICTIONS NOTED AHEAD OF THE LOW...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

COULD SEE SOME GUSTINESS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS...BUT NOT
CONVINCED IT WILL BE PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH MORE THAN A STRONG
SUSTAINED WIND. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS A MORE POTENT THREAT EAST OF
THE SITES WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FAR MORE PRONOUNCED...AND
AREA VAD WIND PROFILES SUPPORT WINDS BELOW 2KFT NO MORE THAN 30-35KT
AT THIS TIME.

AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES TOMORROW MORNING AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL HELP MIX SOME OF THIS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WIND GUSTS
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST MAY APPROACH AND EVEN OCCASIONALLY EXCEED
40KT AT THE SITES...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THUNDER WILL BE AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT WITH THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW...STRONG DYNAMICS...AND AT LEAST A SMALL
AMOUNT OF SHALLOW INSTABILITY...BUT WITH NO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR
PLACEMENT OF THE THREAT...CANNOT INCLUDE A MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR INZ021-028>030-
035>037-039-043>048-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR INZ031-038-
040>042-049.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 240227
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
927 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO CENTRAL
INDIANA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COME WINDY AND
MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THANKSGIVING INTO SATURDAY WILL
BE COLD AND DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPPER TOUGH AND POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM.
EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND VORT
MAX. 850MB WINDS AROUND 50KT WILL BRING IN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AND
PERHAPS SOME INSTABILITY. WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS THIS EVENING ALL
AREAS AND MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER.

AS THE FIRST UPPER WAVE PASSES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE EVENING
RAIN WILL DIMINISH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT
AND OTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...RAIN WILL
ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. WENT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE WEST AFTER 09Z WITH HIGH CHANCES EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL
CENTRAL INDIANA MOVING MORE INTO THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT. READINGS MAY RISE SOME OVERNIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO
FALL LATE WEST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.

FOR NOW WENT NEAR OR JUST ABOVE MOS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES...BUT THESE
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED AS THE SITUATION UNFOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FOCUS IS ON WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THE MOST PART MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A
BLEND CAN BE USED...BUT GFS LOOKS TOO FAST WITH WEDNESDAY/S SYSTEM.
RELIED LESS ON GFS THEN.

LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT FORCING WITH THE COLD
FRONT...AND MOST MODELS ARE PUTTING OUT RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT AS
IT PASSES THROUGH. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY MORNING.
AS FRONT PASSES BY FORCING WILL WEAKEN SO LOWERED POPS AFTER IT GOES
BY.

FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA
TO GO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINDER OF NORTH HALF. AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN DURING THE DAY PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO
SNOW. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.

MAIN STORY MONDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. STRONG WINDS WILL BE NOT TOO
FAR OFF THE SURFACE...WITH 850MB WINDS OVER 50KT AND 925MB WINDS
OVER 40KT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
THESE PLUS COLD ADVECTION HELPING MIX THE WINDS DOWN WILL CREATE
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SREF FORECASTS SHOW HIGH
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 25KT ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY
AS WELL.

STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA IN THE
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WHERE WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 40 MPH AND WILL BE CLOSE
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. /GFS SHOWS EVEN HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...WITH
GUSTS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE NAM/. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES DECIDED TO GO WIND ADVISORY ACROSS ALL OF THE
AREA.

FOR MOST AREAS WENT 12Z-00Z...BUT IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ARRIVE LATER AND REMAIN A FACTOR LONGER...WENT 14Z-03Z.

UPPER TROUGH COULD STILL BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND FORCING LEADS TO ONLY LOW
POPS FOR NOW. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPERATURES WENT MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW MOST AREAS.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...ON MONDAY READINGS WILL FALL DURING THE
DAY. A MODEL BLEND LOOKS GOOD FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT. MAV MOS LOOKS
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO A
MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 224 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING MIX PRECIP CHANCES TO THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN ZONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS NEXT
DUE TO IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN/RAIN AND SNOW MIX/AND SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR VERY LIGHT AT
THIS TIME AND THIS IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IN THE
EXTENDED SO STUCK WITH 20 PERCENT POPS. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL. ONLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/03Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 927 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

NO CHANGES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 617 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR THROUGH THE FIRST 12 TO 14 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD MVFR AND THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
BORDERLINE VFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND IFR
RESTRICTIONS NOTED AHEAD OF THE LOW...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

COULD SEE SOME GUSTINESS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS...BUT NOT
CONVINCED IT WILL BE PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH MORE THAN A STRONG
SUSTAINED WIND. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS A MORE POTENT THREAT EAST OF
THE SITES WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FAR MORE PRONOUNCED...AND
AREA VAD WIND PROFILES SUPPORT WINDS BELOW 2KFT NO MORE THAN 30-35KT
AT THIS TIME.

AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES TOMORROW MORNING AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL HELP MIX SOME OF THIS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WIND GUSTS
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST MAY APPROACH AND EVEN OCCASIONALLY EXCEED
40KT AT THE SITES...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THUNDER WILL BE AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT WITH THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW...STRONG DYNAMICS...AND AT LEAST A SMALL
AMOUNT OF SHALLOW INSTABILITY...BUT WITH NO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR
PLACEMENT OF THE THREAT...CANNOT INCLUDE A MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
INZ021-028>030-035>037-039-043>048-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR INZ031-038-
040>042-049.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 240227
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
927 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO CENTRAL
INDIANA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COME WINDY AND
MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THANKSGIVING INTO SATURDAY WILL
BE COLD AND DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPPER TOUGH AND POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM.
EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND VORT
MAX. 850MB WINDS AROUND 50KT WILL BRING IN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AND
PERHAPS SOME INSTABILITY. WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS THIS EVENING ALL
AREAS AND MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER.

AS THE FIRST UPPER WAVE PASSES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE EVENING
RAIN WILL DIMINISH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT
AND OTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...RAIN WILL
ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. WENT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE WEST AFTER 09Z WITH HIGH CHANCES EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL
CENTRAL INDIANA MOVING MORE INTO THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT. READINGS MAY RISE SOME OVERNIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO
FALL LATE WEST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.

FOR NOW WENT NEAR OR JUST ABOVE MOS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES...BUT THESE
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED AS THE SITUATION UNFOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FOCUS IS ON WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THE MOST PART MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A
BLEND CAN BE USED...BUT GFS LOOKS TOO FAST WITH WEDNESDAY/S SYSTEM.
RELIED LESS ON GFS THEN.

LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT FORCING WITH THE COLD
FRONT...AND MOST MODELS ARE PUTTING OUT RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT AS
IT PASSES THROUGH. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY MORNING.
AS FRONT PASSES BY FORCING WILL WEAKEN SO LOWERED POPS AFTER IT GOES
BY.

FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA
TO GO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINDER OF NORTH HALF. AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN DURING THE DAY PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO
SNOW. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.

MAIN STORY MONDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. STRONG WINDS WILL BE NOT TOO
FAR OFF THE SURFACE...WITH 850MB WINDS OVER 50KT AND 925MB WINDS
OVER 40KT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
THESE PLUS COLD ADVECTION HELPING MIX THE WINDS DOWN WILL CREATE
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SREF FORECASTS SHOW HIGH
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 25KT ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY
AS WELL.

STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA IN THE
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WHERE WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 40 MPH AND WILL BE CLOSE
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. /GFS SHOWS EVEN HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...WITH
GUSTS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE NAM/. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES DECIDED TO GO WIND ADVISORY ACROSS ALL OF THE
AREA.

FOR MOST AREAS WENT 12Z-00Z...BUT IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ARRIVE LATER AND REMAIN A FACTOR LONGER...WENT 14Z-03Z.

UPPER TROUGH COULD STILL BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND FORCING LEADS TO ONLY LOW
POPS FOR NOW. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPERATURES WENT MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW MOST AREAS.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...ON MONDAY READINGS WILL FALL DURING THE
DAY. A MODEL BLEND LOOKS GOOD FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT. MAV MOS LOOKS
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO A
MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 224 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING MIX PRECIP CHANCES TO THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN ZONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS NEXT
DUE TO IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN/RAIN AND SNOW MIX/AND SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR VERY LIGHT AT
THIS TIME AND THIS IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IN THE
EXTENDED SO STUCK WITH 20 PERCENT POPS. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL. ONLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/03Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 927 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

NO CHANGES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 617 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR THROUGH THE FIRST 12 TO 14 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD MVFR AND THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
BORDERLINE VFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND IFR
RESTRICTIONS NOTED AHEAD OF THE LOW...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

COULD SEE SOME GUSTINESS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS...BUT NOT
CONVINCED IT WILL BE PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH MORE THAN A STRONG
SUSTAINED WIND. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS A MORE POTENT THREAT EAST OF
THE SITES WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FAR MORE PRONOUNCED...AND
AREA VAD WIND PROFILES SUPPORT WINDS BELOW 2KFT NO MORE THAN 30-35KT
AT THIS TIME.

AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES TOMORROW MORNING AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL HELP MIX SOME OF THIS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WIND GUSTS
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST MAY APPROACH AND EVEN OCCASIONALLY EXCEED
40KT AT THE SITES...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THUNDER WILL BE AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT WITH THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW...STRONG DYNAMICS...AND AT LEAST A SMALL
AMOUNT OF SHALLOW INSTABILITY...BUT WITH NO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR
PLACEMENT OF THE THREAT...CANNOT INCLUDE A MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
INZ021-028>030-035>037-039-043>048-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR INZ031-038-
040>042-049.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 232317
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
617 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO CENTRAL
INDIANA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COME WINDY AND
MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THANKSGIVING INTO SATURDAY WILL
BE COLD AND DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPPER TOUGH AND POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM.
EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND VORT
MAX. 850MB WINDS AROUND 50KT WILL BRING IN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AND
PERHAPS SOME INSTABILITY. WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS THIS EVENING ALL
AREAS AND MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER.

AS THE FIRST UPPER WAVE PASSES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE EVENING
RAIN WILL DIMINISH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT
AND OTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...RAIN WILL
ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. WENT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE WEST AFTER 09Z WITH HIGH CHANCES EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL
CENTRAL INDIANA MOVING MORE INTO THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT. READINGS MAY RISE SOME OVERNIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO
FALL LATE WEST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.

FOR NOW WENT NEAR OR JUST ABOVE MOS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES...BUT THESE
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED AS THE SITUATION UNFOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FOCUS IS ON WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THE MOST PART MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A
BLEND CAN BE USED...BUT GFS LOOKS TOO FAST WITH WEDNESDAY/S SYSTEM.
RELIED LESS ON GFS THEN.

LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT FORCING WITH THE COLD
FRONT...AND MOST MODELS ARE PUTTING OUT RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT AS
IT PASSES THROUGH. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY MORNING.
AS FRONT PASSES BY FORCING WILL WEAKEN SO LOWERED POPS AFTER IT GOES
BY.

FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA
TO GO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINDER OF NORTH HALF. AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN DURING THE DAY PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO
SNOW. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.

MAIN STORY MONDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. STRONG WINDS WILL BE NOT TOO
FAR OFF THE SURFACE...WITH 850MB WINDS OVER 50KT AND 925MB WINDS
OVER 40KT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
THESE PLUS COLD ADVECTION HELPING MIX THE WINDS DOWN WILL CREATE
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SREF FORECASTS SHOW HIGH
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 25KT ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY
AS WELL.

STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA IN THE
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WHERE WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 40 MPH AND WILL BE CLOSE
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. /GFS SHOWS EVEN HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...WITH
GUSTS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE NAM/. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES DECIDED TO GO WIND ADVISORY ACROSS ALL OF THE
AREA.

FOR MOST AREAS WENT 12Z-00Z...BUT IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ARRIVE LATER AND REMAIN A FACTOR LONGER...WENT 14Z-03Z.

UPPER TROUGH COULD STILL BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND FORCING LEADS TO ONLY LOW
POPS FOR NOW. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPERATURES WENT MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW MOST AREAS.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...ON MONDAY READINGS WILL FALL DURING THE
DAY. A MODEL BLEND LOOKS GOOD FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT. MAV MOS LOOKS
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO A
MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 224 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING MIX PRECIP CHANCES TO THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN ZONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS NEXT
DUE TO IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN/RAIN AND SNOW MIX/AND SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR VERY LIGHT AT
THIS TIME AND THIS IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IN THE
EXTENDED SO STUCK WITH 20 PERCENT POPS. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL. ONLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR THROUGH THE FIRST 12 TO 14 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD MVFR AND THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
BORDERLINE VFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND IFR
RESTRICTIONS NOTED AHEAD OF THE LOW...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

COULD SEE SOME GUSTINESS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS...BUT NOT
CONVINCED IT WILL BE PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH MORE THAN A STRONG
SUSTAINED WIND. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS A MORE POTENT THREAT EAST OF
THE SITES WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FAR MORE PRONOUNCED...AND
AREA VAD WIND PROFILES SUPPORT WINDS BELOW 2KFT NO MORE THAN 30-35KT
AT THIS TIME.

AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES TOMORROW MORNING AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL HELP MIX SOME OF THIS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WIND GUSTS
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST MAY APPROACH AND EVEN OCCASIONALLY EXCEED
40KT AT THE SITES...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THUNDER WILL BE AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT WITH THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW...STRONG DYNAMICS...AND AT LEAST A SMALL
AMOUNT OF SHALLOW INSTABILITY...BUT WITH NO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR
PLACEMENT OF THE THREAT...CANNOT INCLUDE A MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
INZ021-028>030-035>037-039-043>048-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR INZ031-038-
040>042-049.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 232029
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
329 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO CENTRAL
INDIANA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COME WINDY AND
MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THANKSGIVING INTO SATURDAY WILL
BE COLD AND DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPPER TOUGH AND POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM.
EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND VORT
MAX. 850MB WINDS AROUND 50KT WILL BRING IN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AND
PERHAPS SOME INSTABILITY. WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS THIS EVENING ALL
AREAS AND MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER.

AS THE FIRST UPPER WAVE PASSES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE EVENING
RAIN WILL DIMINISH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT
AND OTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...RAIN WILL
ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. WENT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE WEST AFTER 09Z WITH HIGH CHANCES EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL
CENTRAL INDIANA MOVING MORE INTO THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT. READINGS MAY RISE SOME OVERNIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO
FALL LATE WEST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.

FOR NOW WENT NEAR OR JUST ABOVE MOS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES...BUT THESE
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED AS THE SITUATION UNFOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FOCUS IS ON WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THE MOST PART MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A
BLEND CAN BE USED...BUT GFS LOOKS TOO FAST WITH WEDNESDAY/S SYSTEM.
RELIED LESS ON GFS THEN.

LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT FORCING WITH THE COLD
FRONT...AND MOST MODELS ARE PUTTING OUT RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT AS
IT PASSES THROUGH. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY MORNING.
AS FRONT PASSES BY FORCING WILL WEAKEN SO LOWERED POPS AFTER IT GOES
BY.

FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA
TO GO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINDER OF NORTH HALF. AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN DURING THE DAY PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO
SNOW. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.

MAIN STORY MONDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. STRONG WINDS WILL BE NOT TOO
FAR OFF THE SURFACE...WITH 850MB WINDS OVER 50KT AND 925MB WINDS
OVER 40KT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
THESE PLUS COLD ADVECTION HELPING MIX THE WINDS DOWN WILL CREATE
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SREF FORECASTS SHOW HIGH
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 25KT ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY
AS WELL.

STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA IN THE
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WHERE WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 40 MPH AND WILL BE CLOSE
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. /GFS SHOWS EVEN HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...WITH
GUSTS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE NAM/. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES DECIDED TO GO WIND ADVISORY ACROSS ALL OF THE
AREA.

FOR MOST AREAS WENT 12Z-00Z...BUT IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ARRIVE LATER AND REMAIN A FACTOR LONGER...WENT 14Z-03Z.

UPPER TROUGH COULD STILL BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND FORCING LEADS TO ONLY LOW
POPS FOR NOW. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPERATURES WENT MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW MOST AREAS.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...ON MONDAY READINGS WILL FALL DURING THE
DAY. A MODEL BLEND LOOKS GOOD FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT. MAV MOS LOOKS
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO A
MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING MIX PRECIP CHANCES TO THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN ZONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS NEXT
DUE TO IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN/RAIN AND SNOW MIX/AND SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR VERY LIGHT AT
THIS TIME AND THIS IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IN THE
EXTENDED SO STUCK WITH 20 PERCENT POPS. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL. ONLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 212100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

IFR CEILINGS ARE LIFTING INTO THE REGION A TOUCH FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MADE ADJUSTMENTS AT KIND AND KLAF BASED ON
CURRENT OBS. REST UNCHANGED.

18Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS EVENING AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY LATE TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR
REGION AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER IS POSSIBLE...BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT. WIND WILL GROW EVEN STRONGER...ESPECIALLY AT
SITES KIND AND KLAF WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS
OF 30 TO 35 KT BY 16Z MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
INZ021-028>030-035>037-039-043>048-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR INZ031-038-
040>042-049.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 232029
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
329 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO CENTRAL
INDIANA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COME WINDY AND
MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THANKSGIVING INTO SATURDAY WILL
BE COLD AND DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPPER TOUGH AND POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM.
EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND VORT
MAX. 850MB WINDS AROUND 50KT WILL BRING IN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AND
PERHAPS SOME INSTABILITY. WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS THIS EVENING ALL
AREAS AND MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER.

AS THE FIRST UPPER WAVE PASSES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE EVENING
RAIN WILL DIMINISH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT
AND OTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...RAIN WILL
ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. WENT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE WEST AFTER 09Z WITH HIGH CHANCES EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL
CENTRAL INDIANA MOVING MORE INTO THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT. READINGS MAY RISE SOME OVERNIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO
FALL LATE WEST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.

FOR NOW WENT NEAR OR JUST ABOVE MOS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES...BUT THESE
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED AS THE SITUATION UNFOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FOCUS IS ON WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THE MOST PART MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A
BLEND CAN BE USED...BUT GFS LOOKS TOO FAST WITH WEDNESDAY/S SYSTEM.
RELIED LESS ON GFS THEN.

LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT FORCING WITH THE COLD
FRONT...AND MOST MODELS ARE PUTTING OUT RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT AS
IT PASSES THROUGH. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY MORNING.
AS FRONT PASSES BY FORCING WILL WEAKEN SO LOWERED POPS AFTER IT GOES
BY.

FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA
TO GO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINDER OF NORTH HALF. AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN DURING THE DAY PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO
SNOW. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.

MAIN STORY MONDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. STRONG WINDS WILL BE NOT TOO
FAR OFF THE SURFACE...WITH 850MB WINDS OVER 50KT AND 925MB WINDS
OVER 40KT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
THESE PLUS COLD ADVECTION HELPING MIX THE WINDS DOWN WILL CREATE
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SREF FORECASTS SHOW HIGH
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 25KT ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY
AS WELL.

STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA IN THE
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WHERE WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 40 MPH AND WILL BE CLOSE
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. /GFS SHOWS EVEN HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...WITH
GUSTS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE NAM/. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES DECIDED TO GO WIND ADVISORY ACROSS ALL OF THE
AREA.

FOR MOST AREAS WENT 12Z-00Z...BUT IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ARRIVE LATER AND REMAIN A FACTOR LONGER...WENT 14Z-03Z.

UPPER TROUGH COULD STILL BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND FORCING LEADS TO ONLY LOW
POPS FOR NOW. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPERATURES WENT MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW MOST AREAS.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...ON MONDAY READINGS WILL FALL DURING THE
DAY. A MODEL BLEND LOOKS GOOD FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT. MAV MOS LOOKS
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO A
MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING MIX PRECIP CHANCES TO THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN ZONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS NEXT
DUE TO IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN/RAIN AND SNOW MIX/AND SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR VERY LIGHT AT
THIS TIME AND THIS IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IN THE
EXTENDED SO STUCK WITH 20 PERCENT POPS. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL. ONLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 212100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

IFR CEILINGS ARE LIFTING INTO THE REGION A TOUCH FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MADE ADJUSTMENTS AT KIND AND KLAF BASED ON
CURRENT OBS. REST UNCHANGED.

18Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS EVENING AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY LATE TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR
REGION AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER IS POSSIBLE...BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT. WIND WILL GROW EVEN STRONGER...ESPECIALLY AT
SITES KIND AND KLAF WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS
OF 30 TO 35 KT BY 16Z MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
INZ021-028>030-035>037-039-043>048-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR INZ031-038-
040>042-049.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 232007
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO CENTRAL
INDIANA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COME WINDY AND
MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THANKSGIVING INTO SATURDAY WILL
BE COLD AND DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPPER TOUGH AND POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM.
EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND VORT
MAX. 850MB WINDS AROUND 50KT WILL BRING IN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AND
PERHAPS SOME INSTABILITY. WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS THIS EVENING ALL
AREAS AND MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER.

AS THE FIRST UPPER WAVE PASSES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE EVENING
RAIN WILL DIMINISH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT
AND OTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...RAIN WILL
ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. WENT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE WEST AFTER 09Z WITH HIGH CHANCES EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL
CENTRAL INDIANA MOVING MORE INTO THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT. READINGS MAY RISE SOME OVERNIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO
FALL LATE WEST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.

FOR NOW WENT NEAR OR JUST ABOVE MOS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES...BUT THESE
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED AS THE SITUATION UNFOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FOCUS IS ON WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THE MOST PART MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A
BLEND CAN BE USED...BUT GFS LOOKS TOO FAST WITH WEDNESDAY/S SYSTEM.
RELIED LESS ON GFS THEN.

LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT FORCING WITH THE COLD
FRONT...AND MOST MODELS ARE PUTTING OUT RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT AS
IT PASSES THROUGH. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY MORNING.
AS FRONT PASSES BY FORCING WILL WEAKEN SO LOWERED POPS AFTER IT GOES
BY.

FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA
TO GO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINDER OF NORTH HALF. AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN DURING THE DAY PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO
SNOW. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.

MAIN STORY MONDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. STRONG WINDS WILL BE NOT TOO
FAR OFF THE SURFACE...WITH 850MB WINDS OVER 50KT AND 925MB WINDS
OVER 40KT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
THESE PLUS COLD ADVECTION HELPING MIX THE WINDS DOWN WILL CREATE
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SREF FORECASTS SHOW HIGH
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 25KT ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY
AS WELL.

STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA IN THE
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WHERE WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 40 MPH AND WILL BE CLOSE
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. /GFS SHOWS EVEN HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...WITH
GUSTS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE NAM/. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES DECIDED TO GO WIND ADVISORY ACROSS ALL OF THE
AREA.

FOR MOST AREAS WENT 12Z-00Z...BUT IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ARRIVE LATER AND REMAIN A FACTOR LONGER...WENT 14Z-03Z.

UPPER TROUGH COULD STILL BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND FORCING LEADS TO ONLY LOW
POPS FOR NOW. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPERATURES WENT MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW MOST AREAS.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...ON MONDAY READINGS WILL FALL DURING THE
DAY. A MODEL BLEND LOOKS GOOD FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT. MAV MOS LOOKS
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO A
MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING MIX PRECIP CHANCES TO THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN ZONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS NEXT
DUE TO IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN/RAIN AND SNOW MIX/AND SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR VERY LIGHT AT
THIS TIME AND THIS IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IN THE
EXTENDED SO STUCK WITH 20 PERCENT POPS. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL. ONLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS EVENING AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY LATE TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR
REGION AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER IS POSSIBLE...BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT. WIND WILL GROW EVEN STRONGER...ESPECIALLY AT
SITES KIND AND KLAF WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS
OF 30 TO 35 KT BY 16Z MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
INZ021-028>030-035>037-039-043>048-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR INZ031-038-
040>042-049.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 232007
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO CENTRAL
INDIANA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COME WINDY AND
MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THANKSGIVING INTO SATURDAY WILL
BE COLD AND DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPPER TOUGH AND POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM.
EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND VORT
MAX. 850MB WINDS AROUND 50KT WILL BRING IN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AND
PERHAPS SOME INSTABILITY. WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS THIS EVENING ALL
AREAS AND MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER.

AS THE FIRST UPPER WAVE PASSES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE EVENING
RAIN WILL DIMINISH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT
AND OTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...RAIN WILL
ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. WENT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE WEST AFTER 09Z WITH HIGH CHANCES EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL
CENTRAL INDIANA MOVING MORE INTO THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT. READINGS MAY RISE SOME OVERNIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO
FALL LATE WEST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.

FOR NOW WENT NEAR OR JUST ABOVE MOS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES...BUT THESE
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED AS THE SITUATION UNFOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FOCUS IS ON WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THE MOST PART MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A
BLEND CAN BE USED...BUT GFS LOOKS TOO FAST WITH WEDNESDAY/S SYSTEM.
RELIED LESS ON GFS THEN.

LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT FORCING WITH THE COLD
FRONT...AND MOST MODELS ARE PUTTING OUT RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT AS
IT PASSES THROUGH. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY MORNING.
AS FRONT PASSES BY FORCING WILL WEAKEN SO LOWERED POPS AFTER IT GOES
BY.

FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA
TO GO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINDER OF NORTH HALF. AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN DURING THE DAY PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO
SNOW. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.

MAIN STORY MONDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. STRONG WINDS WILL BE NOT TOO
FAR OFF THE SURFACE...WITH 850MB WINDS OVER 50KT AND 925MB WINDS
OVER 40KT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
THESE PLUS COLD ADVECTION HELPING MIX THE WINDS DOWN WILL CREATE
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SREF FORECASTS SHOW HIGH
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 25KT ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY
AS WELL.

STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA IN THE
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WHERE WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 40 MPH AND WILL BE CLOSE
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. /GFS SHOWS EVEN HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...WITH
GUSTS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE NAM/. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES DECIDED TO GO WIND ADVISORY ACROSS ALL OF THE
AREA.

FOR MOST AREAS WENT 12Z-00Z...BUT IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ARRIVE LATER AND REMAIN A FACTOR LONGER...WENT 14Z-03Z.

UPPER TROUGH COULD STILL BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND FORCING LEADS TO ONLY LOW
POPS FOR NOW. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPERATURES WENT MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW MOST AREAS.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...ON MONDAY READINGS WILL FALL DURING THE
DAY. A MODEL BLEND LOOKS GOOD FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT. MAV MOS LOOKS
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO A
MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING MIX PRECIP CHANCES TO THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN ZONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS NEXT
DUE TO IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN/RAIN AND SNOW MIX/AND SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR VERY LIGHT AT
THIS TIME AND THIS IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IN THE
EXTENDED SO STUCK WITH 20 PERCENT POPS. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL. ONLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS EVENING AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY LATE TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR
REGION AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER IS POSSIBLE...BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT. WIND WILL GROW EVEN STRONGER...ESPECIALLY AT
SITES KIND AND KLAF WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS
OF 30 TO 35 KT BY 16Z MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
INZ021-028>030-035>037-039-043>048-051>057-060>065-067>072.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR INZ031-038-
040>042-049.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 231924
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
224 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO INDIANA TODAY...PRODUCING RAIN/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE WEEK AND A RETURN TO COLDER
WEATHER...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE AROUND THANKSGIVING DAY. DUE
TO THE COLDER AIR MASS...PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 940 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS BETTER FORCING ARRIVES. ONLY
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPERATURES CLOSELY AS THEY ARE WARMING QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...BUT FOR NOW FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK GOOD. ADJUSTED
HOURLY NUMBERS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY WHILE A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THAT SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE THE BEST
DYNAMICS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

LIFT WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL BE MINIMAL UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN START INCREASING THEM MORE RAPIDLY AFTER
SUN 18Z. VORT MAX STRENGTHENS IN MID LEVELS AROUND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING...SO WENT WITH POPS NEAR 100
PERCENT DURING THAT PERIOD. AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO A WARM
SECTOR WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY BUT DECENT SHEAR...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPC HAS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER MENTION FOR NON SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPS...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AS FORECAST AREA SLIDES INTO A WARM SECTOR. TRENDED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE
AS SURFACE LOW EXITS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD END BY MON 03Z...BUT DECENT RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WILL TRANSITION PRECIP
TO SNOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL ALREADY BE OUT OF THE AREA...SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF MONDAY WILL BE THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AS A 120
KT UPPER LEVEL JET SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY...BUT THIS FAR OUT WILL ONLY
HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE. HIGHS
WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE 30S AFTER STARTING OUT IN THE 50S ON
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PLUMMET BACK INTO THE 20S ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. TEMPS WERE HANDLED BEST
WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING MIX PRECIP CHANCES TO THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN ZONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS NEXT
DUE TO IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN/RAIN AND SNOW MIX/AND SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR VERY LIGHT AT
THIS TIME AND THIS IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IN THE
EXTENDED SO STUCK WITH 20 PERCENT POPS. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL. ONLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS EVENING AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY LATE TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR
REGION AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER IS POSSIBLE...BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT. WIND WILL GROW EVEN STRONGER...ESPECIALLY AT
SITES KIND AND KLAF WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS
OF 30 TO 35 KT BY 16Z MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/50
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 231924
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
224 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO INDIANA TODAY...PRODUCING RAIN/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE WEEK AND A RETURN TO COLDER
WEATHER...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE AROUND THANKSGIVING DAY. DUE
TO THE COLDER AIR MASS...PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 940 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS BETTER FORCING ARRIVES. ONLY
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPERATURES CLOSELY AS THEY ARE WARMING QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...BUT FOR NOW FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK GOOD. ADJUSTED
HOURLY NUMBERS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY WHILE A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THAT SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE THE BEST
DYNAMICS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

LIFT WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL BE MINIMAL UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN START INCREASING THEM MORE RAPIDLY AFTER
SUN 18Z. VORT MAX STRENGTHENS IN MID LEVELS AROUND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING...SO WENT WITH POPS NEAR 100
PERCENT DURING THAT PERIOD. AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO A WARM
SECTOR WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY BUT DECENT SHEAR...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPC HAS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER MENTION FOR NON SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPS...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AS FORECAST AREA SLIDES INTO A WARM SECTOR. TRENDED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE
AS SURFACE LOW EXITS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD END BY MON 03Z...BUT DECENT RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WILL TRANSITION PRECIP
TO SNOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL ALREADY BE OUT OF THE AREA...SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF MONDAY WILL BE THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AS A 120
KT UPPER LEVEL JET SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY...BUT THIS FAR OUT WILL ONLY
HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE. HIGHS
WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE 30S AFTER STARTING OUT IN THE 50S ON
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PLUMMET BACK INTO THE 20S ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. TEMPS WERE HANDLED BEST
WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING MIX PRECIP CHANCES TO THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN ZONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS NEXT
DUE TO IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN/RAIN AND SNOW MIX/AND SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR VERY LIGHT AT
THIS TIME AND THIS IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IN THE
EXTENDED SO STUCK WITH 20 PERCENT POPS. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL. ONLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS EVENING AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY LATE TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR
REGION AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER IS POSSIBLE...BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT. WIND WILL GROW EVEN STRONGER...ESPECIALLY AT
SITES KIND AND KLAF WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS
OF 30 TO 35 KT BY 16Z MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/50
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 231750
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1250 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO INDIANA TODAY...PRODUCING RAIN/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE WEEK AND A RETURN TO COLDER
WEATHER...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE AROUND THANKSGIVING DAY. DUE
TO THE COLDER AIR MASS...PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 940 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS BETTER FORCING ARRIVES. ONLY
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPERATURES CLOSELY AS THEY ARE WARMING QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...BUT FOR NOW FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK GOOD. ADJUSTED
HOURLY NUMBERS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY WHILE A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THAT SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE THE BEST
DYNAMICS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

LIFT WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL BE MINIMAL UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN START INCREASING THEM MORE RAPIDLY AFTER
SUN 18Z. VORT MAX STRENGTHENS IN MID LEVELS AROUND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING...SO WENT WITH POPS NEAR 100
PERCENT DURING THAT PERIOD. AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO A WARM
SECTOR WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY BUT DECENT SHEAR...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPC HAS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER MENTION FOR NON SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPS...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AS FORECAST AREA SLIDES INTO A WARM SECTOR. TRENDED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE
AS SURFACE LOW EXITS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD END BY MON 03Z...BUT DECENT RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WILL TRANSITION PRECIP
TO SNOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL ALREADY BE OUT OF THE AREA...SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF MONDAY WILL BE THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AS A 120
KT UPPER LEVEL JET SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY...BUT THIS FAR OUT WILL ONLY
HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE. HIGHS
WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE 30S AFTER STARTING OUT IN THE 50S ON
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PLUMMET BACK INTO THE 20S ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. TEMPS WERE HANDLED BEST
WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A BROAD LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
MODELS BRING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS OUR REGION VERY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER REST OF THE LONG TERM AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. THUS WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS WITH
STILL CHANCE POPS NORTH HALF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FAR NORTH INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WEDNESDAY...SO WENT
WITH MOSTLY RAIN SOUTH HALF AND MIXED PRECIP ELSEWHERE LATE
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FAVOR SNOW NORTH AND CENTRAL WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION FAR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN
TEMPERATURES WITH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS IS A WARM
OUTLIER...WHILE THE GEMNH AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER. WENT WITH A BLEND MOST PERIODS. THE GFS BEGINS WARM
ADVECTION FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE THE EURO AND GEMNH MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THIS..AND IN
FACT KEEP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND MOVE IT
OUR WAY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS EVENING AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY LATE TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR
REGION AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER IS POSSIBLE...BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT. WIND WILL GROW EVEN STRONGER...ESPECIALLY AT
SITES KIND AND KLAF WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS
OF 30 TO 35 KT BY 16Z MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/50
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 231750
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1250 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO INDIANA TODAY...PRODUCING RAIN/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE WEEK AND A RETURN TO COLDER
WEATHER...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE AROUND THANKSGIVING DAY. DUE
TO THE COLDER AIR MASS...PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 940 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS BETTER FORCING ARRIVES. ONLY
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPERATURES CLOSELY AS THEY ARE WARMING QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...BUT FOR NOW FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK GOOD. ADJUSTED
HOURLY NUMBERS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY WHILE A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THAT SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE THE BEST
DYNAMICS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

LIFT WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL BE MINIMAL UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN START INCREASING THEM MORE RAPIDLY AFTER
SUN 18Z. VORT MAX STRENGTHENS IN MID LEVELS AROUND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING...SO WENT WITH POPS NEAR 100
PERCENT DURING THAT PERIOD. AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO A WARM
SECTOR WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY BUT DECENT SHEAR...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPC HAS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER MENTION FOR NON SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPS...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AS FORECAST AREA SLIDES INTO A WARM SECTOR. TRENDED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE
AS SURFACE LOW EXITS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD END BY MON 03Z...BUT DECENT RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WILL TRANSITION PRECIP
TO SNOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL ALREADY BE OUT OF THE AREA...SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF MONDAY WILL BE THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AS A 120
KT UPPER LEVEL JET SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY...BUT THIS FAR OUT WILL ONLY
HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE. HIGHS
WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE 30S AFTER STARTING OUT IN THE 50S ON
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PLUMMET BACK INTO THE 20S ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. TEMPS WERE HANDLED BEST
WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A BROAD LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
MODELS BRING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS OUR REGION VERY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER REST OF THE LONG TERM AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. THUS WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS WITH
STILL CHANCE POPS NORTH HALF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FAR NORTH INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WEDNESDAY...SO WENT
WITH MOSTLY RAIN SOUTH HALF AND MIXED PRECIP ELSEWHERE LATE
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FAVOR SNOW NORTH AND CENTRAL WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION FAR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN
TEMPERATURES WITH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS IS A WARM
OUTLIER...WHILE THE GEMNH AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER. WENT WITH A BLEND MOST PERIODS. THE GFS BEGINS WARM
ADVECTION FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE THE EURO AND GEMNH MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THIS..AND IN
FACT KEEP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND MOVE IT
OUR WAY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS EVENING AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY LATE TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR
REGION AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER IS POSSIBLE...BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT. WIND WILL GROW EVEN STRONGER...ESPECIALLY AT
SITES KIND AND KLAF WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS
OF 30 TO 35 KT BY 16Z MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/50
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 231440
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
940 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO INDIANA TODAY...PRODUCING RAIN/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE WEEK AND A RETURN TO COLDER
WEATHER...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE AROUND THANKSGIVING DAY. DUE
TO THE COLDER AIR MASS...PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 940 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS BETTER FORCING ARRIVES. ONLY
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPERATURES CLOSELY AS THEY ARE WARMING QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...BUT FOR NOW FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK GOOD. ADJUSTED
HOURLY NUMBERS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY WHILE A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THAT SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE THE BEST
DYNAMICS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

LIFT WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL BE MINIMAL UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN START INCREASING THEM MORE RAPIDLY AFTER
SUN 18Z. VORT MAX STRENGTHENS IN MID LEVELS AROUND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING...SO WENT WITH POPS NEAR 100
PERCENT DURING THAT PERIOD. AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO A WARM
SECTOR WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY BUT DECENT SHEAR...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPC HAS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER MENTION FOR NON SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPS...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AS FORECAST AREA SLIDES INTO A WARM SECTOR. TRENDED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE
AS SURFACE LOW EXITS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD END BY MON 03Z...BUT DECENT RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WILL TRANSITION PRECIP
TO SNOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL ALREADY BE OUT OF THE AREA...SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF MONDAY WILL BE THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AS A 120
KT UPPER LEVEL JET SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY...BUT THIS FAR OUT WILL ONLY
HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE. HIGHS
WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE 30S AFTER STARTING OUT IN THE 50S ON
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PLUMMET BACK INTO THE 20S ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. TEMPS WERE HANDLED BEST
WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A BROAD LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
MODELS BRING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS OUR REGION VERY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER REST OF THE LONG TERM AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. THUS WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS WITH
STILL CHANCE POPS NORTH HALF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FAR NORTH INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WEDNESDAY...SO WENT
WITH MOSTLY RAIN SOUTH HALF AND MIXED PRECIP ELSEWHERE LATE
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FAVOR SNOW NORTH AND CENTRAL WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION FAR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN
TEMPERATURES WITH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS IS A WARM
OUTLIER...WHILE THE GEMNH AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER. WENT WITH A BLEND MOST PERIODS. THE GFS BEGINS WARM
ADVECTION FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE THE EURO AND GEMNH MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THIS..AND IN
FACT KEEP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND MOVE IT
OUR WAY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 921 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

1420Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR FOR THE FIRST 6 TO 8 HOURS AND THEN BECOMING IFR CEILINGS AND
RAIN THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT
CATEGORY TOWARDS MONDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS EVENING AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE RAIN TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

CEILINGS AROUND 5 THOUSAND FEET OR BETTER WILL DROP TO LESS THAN A
THOUSAND FEET LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RAIN INCREASES.

MENTIONED LOW LEVEL INSURANCE AT KIND THROUGH 15Z WITH A 45 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN.  MARGINAL LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH SURFACE WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/50
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...SMF/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 231440
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
940 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO INDIANA TODAY...PRODUCING RAIN/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE WEEK AND A RETURN TO COLDER
WEATHER...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE AROUND THANKSGIVING DAY. DUE
TO THE COLDER AIR MASS...PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 940 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS BETTER FORCING ARRIVES. ONLY
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPERATURES CLOSELY AS THEY ARE WARMING QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...BUT FOR NOW FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK GOOD. ADJUSTED
HOURLY NUMBERS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY WHILE A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THAT SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE THE BEST
DYNAMICS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

LIFT WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL BE MINIMAL UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN START INCREASING THEM MORE RAPIDLY AFTER
SUN 18Z. VORT MAX STRENGTHENS IN MID LEVELS AROUND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING...SO WENT WITH POPS NEAR 100
PERCENT DURING THAT PERIOD. AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO A WARM
SECTOR WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY BUT DECENT SHEAR...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPC HAS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER MENTION FOR NON SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPS...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AS FORECAST AREA SLIDES INTO A WARM SECTOR. TRENDED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE
AS SURFACE LOW EXITS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD END BY MON 03Z...BUT DECENT RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WILL TRANSITION PRECIP
TO SNOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL ALREADY BE OUT OF THE AREA...SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF MONDAY WILL BE THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AS A 120
KT UPPER LEVEL JET SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY...BUT THIS FAR OUT WILL ONLY
HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE. HIGHS
WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE 30S AFTER STARTING OUT IN THE 50S ON
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PLUMMET BACK INTO THE 20S ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. TEMPS WERE HANDLED BEST
WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A BROAD LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
MODELS BRING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS OUR REGION VERY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER REST OF THE LONG TERM AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. THUS WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS WITH
STILL CHANCE POPS NORTH HALF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FAR NORTH INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WEDNESDAY...SO WENT
WITH MOSTLY RAIN SOUTH HALF AND MIXED PRECIP ELSEWHERE LATE
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FAVOR SNOW NORTH AND CENTRAL WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION FAR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN
TEMPERATURES WITH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS IS A WARM
OUTLIER...WHILE THE GEMNH AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER. WENT WITH A BLEND MOST PERIODS. THE GFS BEGINS WARM
ADVECTION FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE THE EURO AND GEMNH MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THIS..AND IN
FACT KEEP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND MOVE IT
OUR WAY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 921 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

1420Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR FOR THE FIRST 6 TO 8 HOURS AND THEN BECOMING IFR CEILINGS AND
RAIN THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT
CATEGORY TOWARDS MONDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS EVENING AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE RAIN TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

CEILINGS AROUND 5 THOUSAND FEET OR BETTER WILL DROP TO LESS THAN A
THOUSAND FEET LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RAIN INCREASES.

MENTIONED LOW LEVEL INSURANCE AT KIND THROUGH 15Z WITH A 45 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN.  MARGINAL LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH SURFACE WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/50
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...SMF/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 231423
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
923 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO INDIANA TODAY...PRODUCING RAIN/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE WEEK AND A RETURN TO COLDER
WEATHER...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE AROUND THANKSGIVING DAY. DUE
TO THE COLDER AIR MASS...PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY WHILE A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THAT SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE THE BEST
DYNAMICS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

LIFT WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL BE MINIMAL UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN START INCREASING THEM MORE RAPIDLY AFTER
SUN 18Z. VORT MAX STRENGTHENS IN MID LEVELS AROUND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING...SO WENT WITH POPS NEAR 100
PERCENT DURING THAT PERIOD. AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO A WARM
SECTOR WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY BUT DECENT SHEAR...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPC HAS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER MENTION FOR NON SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPS...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AS FORECAST AREA SLIDES INTO A WARM SECTOR. TRENDED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE
AS SURFACE LOW EXITS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD END BY MON 03Z...BUT DECENT RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WILL TRANSITION PRECIP
TO SNOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL ALREADY BE OUT OF THE AREA...SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF MONDAY WILL BE THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AS A 120
KT UPPER LEVEL JET SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY...BUT THIS FAR OUT WILL ONLY
HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE. HIGHS
WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE 30S AFTER STARTING OUT IN THE 50S ON
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PLUMMET BACK INTO THE 20S ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. TEMPS WERE HANDLED BEST
WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A BROAD LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
MODELS BRING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS OUR REGION VERY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER REST OF THE LONG TERM AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. THUS WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS WITH
STILL CHANCE POPS NORTH HALF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FAR NORTH INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WEDNESDAY...SO WENT
WITH MOSTLY RAIN SOUTH HALF AND MIXED PRECIP ELSEWHERE LATE
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FAVOR SNOW NORTH AND CENTRAL WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION FAR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN
TEMPERATURES WITH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS IS A WARM
OUTLIER...WHILE THE GEMNH AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER. WENT WITH A BLEND MOST PERIODS. THE GFS BEGINS WARM
ADVECTION FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE THE EURO AND GEMNH MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THIS..AND IN
FACT KEEP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND MOVE IT
OUR WAY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 921 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

1420Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR FOR THE FIRST 6 TO 8 HOURS AND THEN BECOMING IFR CEILINGS AND
RAIN THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT
CATEGORY TOWARDS MONDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS EVENING AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE RAIN TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

CEILINGS AROUND 5 THOUSAND FEET OR BETTER WILL DROP TO LESS THAN A
THOUSAND FEET LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RAIN INCREASES.

MENTIONED LOW LEVEL INSURANCE AT KIND THROUGH 15Z WITH A 45 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN.  MARGINAL LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH SURFACE WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...SMF/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 231423
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
923 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO INDIANA TODAY...PRODUCING RAIN/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE WEEK AND A RETURN TO COLDER
WEATHER...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE AROUND THANKSGIVING DAY. DUE
TO THE COLDER AIR MASS...PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY WHILE A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THAT SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE THE BEST
DYNAMICS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

LIFT WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL BE MINIMAL UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN START INCREASING THEM MORE RAPIDLY AFTER
SUN 18Z. VORT MAX STRENGTHENS IN MID LEVELS AROUND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING...SO WENT WITH POPS NEAR 100
PERCENT DURING THAT PERIOD. AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO A WARM
SECTOR WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY BUT DECENT SHEAR...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPC HAS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER MENTION FOR NON SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPS...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AS FORECAST AREA SLIDES INTO A WARM SECTOR. TRENDED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE
AS SURFACE LOW EXITS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD END BY MON 03Z...BUT DECENT RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WILL TRANSITION PRECIP
TO SNOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL ALREADY BE OUT OF THE AREA...SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF MONDAY WILL BE THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AS A 120
KT UPPER LEVEL JET SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY...BUT THIS FAR OUT WILL ONLY
HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE. HIGHS
WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE 30S AFTER STARTING OUT IN THE 50S ON
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PLUMMET BACK INTO THE 20S ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. TEMPS WERE HANDLED BEST
WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A BROAD LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
MODELS BRING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS OUR REGION VERY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER REST OF THE LONG TERM AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. THUS WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS WITH
STILL CHANCE POPS NORTH HALF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FAR NORTH INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WEDNESDAY...SO WENT
WITH MOSTLY RAIN SOUTH HALF AND MIXED PRECIP ELSEWHERE LATE
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FAVOR SNOW NORTH AND CENTRAL WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION FAR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN
TEMPERATURES WITH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS IS A WARM
OUTLIER...WHILE THE GEMNH AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER. WENT WITH A BLEND MOST PERIODS. THE GFS BEGINS WARM
ADVECTION FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE THE EURO AND GEMNH MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THIS..AND IN
FACT KEEP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND MOVE IT
OUR WAY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 921 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

1420Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR FOR THE FIRST 6 TO 8 HOURS AND THEN BECOMING IFR CEILINGS AND
RAIN THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT
CATEGORY TOWARDS MONDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS EVENING AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE RAIN TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

CEILINGS AROUND 5 THOUSAND FEET OR BETTER WILL DROP TO LESS THAN A
THOUSAND FEET LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RAIN INCREASES.

MENTIONED LOW LEVEL INSURANCE AT KIND THROUGH 15Z WITH A 45 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN.  MARGINAL LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH SURFACE WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...SMF/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 231105
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
600 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO INDIANA TODAY...PRODUCING RAIN/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE WEEK AND A RETURN TO COLDER
WEATHER...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE AROUND THANKSGIVING DAY. DUE
TO THE COLDER AIR MASS...PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY WHILE A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THAT SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE THE BEST
DYNAMICS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

LIFT WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL BE MINIMAL UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN START INCREASING THEM MORE RAPIDLY AFTER
SUN 18Z. VORT MAX STRENGTHENS IN MID LEVELS AROUND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING...SO WENT WITH POPS NEAR 100
PERCENT DURING THAT PERIOD. AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO A WARM
SECTOR WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY BUT DECENT SHEAR...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPC HAS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER MENTION FOR NON SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPS...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AS FORECAST AREA SLIDES INTO A WARM SECTOR. TRENDED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE
AS SURFACE LOW EXITS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD END BY MON 03Z...BUT DECENT RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WILL TRANSITION PRECIP
TO SNOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL ALREADY BE OUT OF THE AREA...SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF MONDAY WILL BE THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AS A 120
KT UPPER LEVEL JET SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY...BUT THIS FAR OUT WILL ONLY
HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE. HIGHS
WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE 30S AFTER STARTING OUT IN THE 50S ON
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PLUMMET BACK INTO THE 20S ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. TEMPS WERE HANDLED BEST
WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A BROAD LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
MODELS BRING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS OUR REGION VERY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER REST OF THE LONG TERM AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. THUS WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS WITH
STILL CHANCE POPS NORTH HALF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FAR NORTH INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WEDNESDAY...SO WENT
WITH MOSTLY RAIN SOUTH HALF AND MIXED PRECIP ELSEWHERE LATE
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FAVOR SNOW NORTH AND CENTRAL WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION FAR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN
TEMPERATURES WITH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS IS A WARM
OUTLIER...WHILE THE GEMNH AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER. WENT WITH A BLEND MOST PERIODS. THE GFS BEGINS WARM
ADVECTION FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE THE EURO AND GEMNH MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THIS..AND IN
FACT KEEP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND MOVE IT
OUR WAY SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 21/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 600 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

VFR FOR THE FIRST 6 TO 8 HOURS AND THEN BECOMING IFR CEILINGS AND
RAIN THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT
CATEGORY TOWARDS MONDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS EVENING AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE RAIN TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

CEILINGS AROUND 5 THOUSAND FEET OR BETTER WILL DROP TO LESS THAN A
THOUSAND FEET LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RAIN INCREASES.

MENTIONED LOW LEVEL INSURANCE AT KIND THROUGH 15Z WITH A 45 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN.  MARGINAL LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH SURFACE WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 231105
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
600 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO INDIANA TODAY...PRODUCING RAIN/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE WEEK AND A RETURN TO COLDER
WEATHER...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE AROUND THANKSGIVING DAY. DUE
TO THE COLDER AIR MASS...PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY WHILE A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THAT SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE THE BEST
DYNAMICS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

LIFT WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL BE MINIMAL UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN START INCREASING THEM MORE RAPIDLY AFTER
SUN 18Z. VORT MAX STRENGTHENS IN MID LEVELS AROUND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING...SO WENT WITH POPS NEAR 100
PERCENT DURING THAT PERIOD. AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO A WARM
SECTOR WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY BUT DECENT SHEAR...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPC HAS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER MENTION FOR NON SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPS...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AS FORECAST AREA SLIDES INTO A WARM SECTOR. TRENDED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE
AS SURFACE LOW EXITS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD END BY MON 03Z...BUT DECENT RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WILL TRANSITION PRECIP
TO SNOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL ALREADY BE OUT OF THE AREA...SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF MONDAY WILL BE THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AS A 120
KT UPPER LEVEL JET SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY...BUT THIS FAR OUT WILL ONLY
HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE. HIGHS
WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE 30S AFTER STARTING OUT IN THE 50S ON
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PLUMMET BACK INTO THE 20S ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. TEMPS WERE HANDLED BEST
WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A BROAD LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
MODELS BRING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS OUR REGION VERY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER REST OF THE LONG TERM AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. THUS WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS WITH
STILL CHANCE POPS NORTH HALF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FAR NORTH INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WEDNESDAY...SO WENT
WITH MOSTLY RAIN SOUTH HALF AND MIXED PRECIP ELSEWHERE LATE
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FAVOR SNOW NORTH AND CENTRAL WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION FAR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN
TEMPERATURES WITH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS IS A WARM
OUTLIER...WHILE THE GEMNH AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER. WENT WITH A BLEND MOST PERIODS. THE GFS BEGINS WARM
ADVECTION FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE THE EURO AND GEMNH MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THIS..AND IN
FACT KEEP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND MOVE IT
OUR WAY SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 21/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 600 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

VFR FOR THE FIRST 6 TO 8 HOURS AND THEN BECOMING IFR CEILINGS AND
RAIN THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT
CATEGORY TOWARDS MONDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS EVENING AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE RAIN TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

CEILINGS AROUND 5 THOUSAND FEET OR BETTER WILL DROP TO LESS THAN A
THOUSAND FEET LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RAIN INCREASES.

MENTIONED LOW LEVEL INSURANCE AT KIND THROUGH 15Z WITH A 45 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN.  MARGINAL LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH SURFACE WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 230900
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM...LONG TERM
AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO INDIANA TODAY...PRODUCING RAIN/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE WEEK AND A RETURN TO COLDER
WEATHER...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE AROUND THANKSGIVING DAY. DUE
TO THE COLDER AIR MASS...PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY WHILE A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THAT SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE THE BEST
DYNAMICS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

LIFT WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL BE MINIMAL UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN START INCREASING THEM MORE RAPIDLY AFTER
SUN 18Z. VORT MAX STRENGTHENS IN MID LEVELS AROUND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING...SO WENT WITH POPS NEAR 100
PERCENT DURING THAT PERIOD. AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO A WARM
SECTOR WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY BUT DECENT SHEAR...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPC HAS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER MENTION FOR NON SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPS...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AS FORECAST AREA SLIDES INTO A WARM SECTOR. TRENDED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE
AS SURFACE LOW EXITS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD END BY MON 03Z...BUT DECENT RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WILL TRANSITION PRECIP
TO SNOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL ALREADY BE OUT OF THE AREA...SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF MONDAY WILL BE THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AS A 120
KT UPPER LEVEL JET SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY...BUT THIS FAR OUT WILL ONLY
HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE. HIGHS
WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE 30S AFTER STARTING OUT IN THE 50S ON
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PLUMMET BACK INTO THE 20S ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. TEMPS WERE HANDLED BEST
WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A BROAD LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
MODELS BRING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS OUR REGION VERY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER REST OF THE LONG TERM AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. THUS WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS WITH
STILL CHANCE POPS NORTH HALF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FAR NORTH INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WEDNESDAY...SO WENT
WITH MOSTLY RAIN SOUTH HALF AND MIXED PRECIP ELSEWHERE LATE
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FAVOR SNOW NORTH AND CENTRAL WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION FAR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN
TEMPERATURES WITH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS IS A WARM
OUTLIER...WHILE THE GEMNH AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER. WENT WITH A BLEND MOST PERIODS. THE GFS BEGINS WARM
ADVECTION FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE THE EURO AND GEMNH MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THIS..AND IN
FACT KEEP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND MOVE IT
OUR WAY SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 21/09Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 6 TO 10 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WILL SEE LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT CONDITIONS.

NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING WILL BEGIN LOWERING CEILINGS NEAR DAYBREAK
ALONG WITH SOME DRIZZLE...BUT SREF PROBABILITIES AND LAMP GUIDANCE
SUGGEST CONDITIONS REMAIN LOW END VFR THROUGH ABOUT LATE MORNING.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH ONSET OF STEADIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THEN PERHAPS TO IFR LATE
IN THE PERIOD TOWARD TOMORROW EVENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND A
LOW LEVEL JET WORKS INTO THE AREA.

WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SOUTHERLY...THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TOWARD
MORNING. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 07-14KT RANGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME GUSTINESS MAY OCCUR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS TOO SPOTTY TO INCLUDE. AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES IN LATE
IN THE PERIOD...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME A CONCERN AT MOST
SITES. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION DESPITE UNCERTAINTY ON DETAILS TO PUT
THE WORD OUT THERE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...NIELD/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 230900
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM...LONG TERM
AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO INDIANA TODAY...PRODUCING RAIN/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE WEEK AND A RETURN TO COLDER
WEATHER...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE AROUND THANKSGIVING DAY. DUE
TO THE COLDER AIR MASS...PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY WHILE A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THAT SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE THE BEST
DYNAMICS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

LIFT WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL BE MINIMAL UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN START INCREASING THEM MORE RAPIDLY AFTER
SUN 18Z. VORT MAX STRENGTHENS IN MID LEVELS AROUND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING...SO WENT WITH POPS NEAR 100
PERCENT DURING THAT PERIOD. AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS INTO A WARM
SECTOR WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY BUT DECENT SHEAR...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPC HAS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER MENTION FOR NON SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPS...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AS FORECAST AREA SLIDES INTO A WARM SECTOR. TRENDED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE
AS SURFACE LOW EXITS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD END BY MON 03Z...BUT DECENT RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WILL TRANSITION PRECIP
TO SNOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL ALREADY BE OUT OF THE AREA...SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF MONDAY WILL BE THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AS A 120
KT UPPER LEVEL JET SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY...BUT THIS FAR OUT WILL ONLY
HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE. HIGHS
WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE 30S AFTER STARTING OUT IN THE 50S ON
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PLUMMET BACK INTO THE 20S ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. TEMPS WERE HANDLED BEST
WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A BROAD LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
MODELS BRING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS OUR REGION VERY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER REST OF THE LONG TERM AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. THUS WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS WITH
STILL CHANCE POPS NORTH HALF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FAR NORTH INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WEDNESDAY...SO WENT
WITH MOSTLY RAIN SOUTH HALF AND MIXED PRECIP ELSEWHERE LATE
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FAVOR SNOW NORTH AND CENTRAL WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION FAR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN
TEMPERATURES WITH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS IS A WARM
OUTLIER...WHILE THE GEMNH AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER. WENT WITH A BLEND MOST PERIODS. THE GFS BEGINS WARM
ADVECTION FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE THE EURO AND GEMNH MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THIS..AND IN
FACT KEEP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND MOVE IT
OUR WAY SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 21/09Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 6 TO 10 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WILL SEE LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT CONDITIONS.

NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING WILL BEGIN LOWERING CEILINGS NEAR DAYBREAK
ALONG WITH SOME DRIZZLE...BUT SREF PROBABILITIES AND LAMP GUIDANCE
SUGGEST CONDITIONS REMAIN LOW END VFR THROUGH ABOUT LATE MORNING.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH ONSET OF STEADIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THEN PERHAPS TO IFR LATE
IN THE PERIOD TOWARD TOMORROW EVENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND A
LOW LEVEL JET WORKS INTO THE AREA.

WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SOUTHERLY...THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TOWARD
MORNING. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 07-14KT RANGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME GUSTINESS MAY OCCUR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS TOO SPOTTY TO INCLUDE. AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES IN LATE
IN THE PERIOD...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME A CONCERN AT MOST
SITES. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION DESPITE UNCERTAINTY ON DETAILS TO PUT
THE WORD OUT THERE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...NIELD/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 230443
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1143 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SET FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WHICH MAY MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH CENTRAL FOR THANKSGIVING GIVING
CENTRAL INDIANA MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 929 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVER SURFACE PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. RADAR FINALLY SHOWING A WAVE OF
SHOWERS OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WESTERN CENTRAL
INDIANA...PUSHING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW. HAVE RAISED POPS TO NEAR
100 PERCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AS IT PASSES. ELSEWHERE...WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS AS AN ISOLATED
SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

GIVEN WARM AIR ADVECTION...PLENTIFUL CLOUDS AND THE FAILURE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL MUCH AT ALL, HAVE RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAV GUIDANCE TENDS TO AGREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AS THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
AGREE THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL DRIFT
EAST AND DEEPEN. AS IT DOES STRONG DYNAMICS WILL BE EJECTED OUT
OF THE TROUGH AND PUSHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. VERY GOOD LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL
REMAIN FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS THEN SHOW DEEP SATURATION WITH EXCELLENT LIFT BY 00Z
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND REACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
IT STRENGTHENS BY MONDAY MORNING. ALL THE WHILE...PUSHING A WARM
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PUTTING US IN THE
WARM SECTOR. THUS GIVEN ALL THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL USE NEAR 100
POPS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHEAR IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
PASSES...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOWER
LEVEL INVERSIONS IN PLACE. HOWEVER ALOFT...SOME INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN PRESENT AS STEEP LAPSE RATES LOOK PRESENT AMID A SATURATED
COLUMN. THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME THUNDER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING PASSES.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COUNTERACTING EACH OTHER...AND TREND
WARMER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WITHIN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP LOOK LIKELY ON MONDAY AS ONCE AGAIN DECENT
MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDING INITIALLY SHOW
LOWER LEVELS WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT AS THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN FALL ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING SHOWING
A SNOW SOUNDING. THUS WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES IN
THE MORNING AND TREND TOWARD SNOW CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE AND PASSED
TO THE EAST...THUS ONLY MINIMAL TO VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY...GIVEN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WE WILL LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MORNING...WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S IN THE AFTERNOON. A NON-DIURNAL TREND WILL BE
USED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHED SHORTLY BETWEEN 13-15Z NEAR FROPA.

A RIDGE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BURST OF COLD
AND DRY AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AGREE...SHOWING A DRY COLUMN ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS ENTIRELY BELOW
0C. WILL TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT DRY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
THROUGH. ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE SYSTEM WILL START TO
APPROACH INDIANA AND WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STILL SEEING BIG VARIABILITY IN
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. ENSEMBLE MOS HIGHS IN THE GFS ARE VARYING FROM
29 TO 48 FOR INDIANAPOLIS...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS STICKING CLOSER
TO THE WARMER END OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
STICKING WITH A COLDER TRACK. WITH THE ECM TENDING TO VERIFY A
LITTLE BETTER FURTHER OUT IN TIME WILL TREND THE INTIALIZATION A FEW
DEGREES COLDER TOWARD IT...AND THIS RESULTED IN CHANCES FOR SNOW
NORTH AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. PATTERN COULD FLATTEN A BIT AFTER THAT AND ACCEPTED DRY
INITIALIZATION FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 21/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 6 TO 10 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WILL SEE LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT CONDITIONS.

NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING WILL BEGIN LOWERING CEILINGS NEAR DAYBREAK
ALONG WITH SOME DRIZZLE...BUT SREF PROBABILITIES AND LAMP GUIDANCE
SUGGEST CONDITIONS REMAIN LOW END VFR THROUGH ABOUT LATE MORNING.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH ONSET OF STEADIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THEN PERHAPS TO IFR LATE
IN THE PERIOD TOWARD TOMORROW EVENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND A
LOW LEVEL JET WORKS INTO THE AREA.

WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SOUTHERLY...THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TOWARD
MORNING. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 07-14KT RANGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME GUSTINESS MAY OCCUR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS TOO SPOTTY TO INCLUDE. AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES IN LATE
IN THE PERIOD...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME A CONCERN AT MOST
SITES. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION DESPITE UNCERTAINTY ON DETAILS TO PUT
THE WORD OUT THERE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 230443
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1143 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SET FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WHICH MAY MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH CENTRAL FOR THANKSGIVING GIVING
CENTRAL INDIANA MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 929 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVER SURFACE PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. RADAR FINALLY SHOWING A WAVE OF
SHOWERS OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WESTERN CENTRAL
INDIANA...PUSHING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW. HAVE RAISED POPS TO NEAR
100 PERCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AS IT PASSES. ELSEWHERE...WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS AS AN ISOLATED
SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

GIVEN WARM AIR ADVECTION...PLENTIFUL CLOUDS AND THE FAILURE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL MUCH AT ALL, HAVE RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAV GUIDANCE TENDS TO AGREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AS THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
AGREE THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL DRIFT
EAST AND DEEPEN. AS IT DOES STRONG DYNAMICS WILL BE EJECTED OUT
OF THE TROUGH AND PUSHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. VERY GOOD LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL
REMAIN FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS THEN SHOW DEEP SATURATION WITH EXCELLENT LIFT BY 00Z
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND REACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
IT STRENGTHENS BY MONDAY MORNING. ALL THE WHILE...PUSHING A WARM
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PUTTING US IN THE
WARM SECTOR. THUS GIVEN ALL THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL USE NEAR 100
POPS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHEAR IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
PASSES...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOWER
LEVEL INVERSIONS IN PLACE. HOWEVER ALOFT...SOME INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN PRESENT AS STEEP LAPSE RATES LOOK PRESENT AMID A SATURATED
COLUMN. THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME THUNDER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING PASSES.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COUNTERACTING EACH OTHER...AND TREND
WARMER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WITHIN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP LOOK LIKELY ON MONDAY AS ONCE AGAIN DECENT
MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDING INITIALLY SHOW
LOWER LEVELS WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT AS THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN FALL ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING SHOWING
A SNOW SOUNDING. THUS WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES IN
THE MORNING AND TREND TOWARD SNOW CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE AND PASSED
TO THE EAST...THUS ONLY MINIMAL TO VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY...GIVEN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WE WILL LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MORNING...WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S IN THE AFTERNOON. A NON-DIURNAL TREND WILL BE
USED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHED SHORTLY BETWEEN 13-15Z NEAR FROPA.

A RIDGE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BURST OF COLD
AND DRY AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AGREE...SHOWING A DRY COLUMN ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS ENTIRELY BELOW
0C. WILL TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT DRY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
THROUGH. ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE SYSTEM WILL START TO
APPROACH INDIANA AND WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STILL SEEING BIG VARIABILITY IN
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. ENSEMBLE MOS HIGHS IN THE GFS ARE VARYING FROM
29 TO 48 FOR INDIANAPOLIS...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS STICKING CLOSER
TO THE WARMER END OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
STICKING WITH A COLDER TRACK. WITH THE ECM TENDING TO VERIFY A
LITTLE BETTER FURTHER OUT IN TIME WILL TREND THE INTIALIZATION A FEW
DEGREES COLDER TOWARD IT...AND THIS RESULTED IN CHANCES FOR SNOW
NORTH AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. PATTERN COULD FLATTEN A BIT AFTER THAT AND ACCEPTED DRY
INITIALIZATION FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 21/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 6 TO 10 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WILL SEE LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT CONDITIONS.

NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING WILL BEGIN LOWERING CEILINGS NEAR DAYBREAK
ALONG WITH SOME DRIZZLE...BUT SREF PROBABILITIES AND LAMP GUIDANCE
SUGGEST CONDITIONS REMAIN LOW END VFR THROUGH ABOUT LATE MORNING.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH ONSET OF STEADIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THEN PERHAPS TO IFR LATE
IN THE PERIOD TOWARD TOMORROW EVENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND A
LOW LEVEL JET WORKS INTO THE AREA.

WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SOUTHERLY...THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TOWARD
MORNING. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 07-14KT RANGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME GUSTINESS MAY OCCUR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS TOO SPOTTY TO INCLUDE. AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES IN LATE
IN THE PERIOD...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME A CONCERN AT MOST
SITES. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION DESPITE UNCERTAINTY ON DETAILS TO PUT
THE WORD OUT THERE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 230443
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1143 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SET FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WHICH MAY MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH CENTRAL FOR THANKSGIVING GIVING
CENTRAL INDIANA MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 929 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVER SURFACE PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. RADAR FINALLY SHOWING A WAVE OF
SHOWERS OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WESTERN CENTRAL
INDIANA...PUSHING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW. HAVE RAISED POPS TO NEAR
100 PERCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AS IT PASSES. ELSEWHERE...WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS AS AN ISOLATED
SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

GIVEN WARM AIR ADVECTION...PLENTIFUL CLOUDS AND THE FAILURE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL MUCH AT ALL, HAVE RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAV GUIDANCE TENDS TO AGREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AS THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
AGREE THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL DRIFT
EAST AND DEEPEN. AS IT DOES STRONG DYNAMICS WILL BE EJECTED OUT
OF THE TROUGH AND PUSHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. VERY GOOD LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL
REMAIN FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS THEN SHOW DEEP SATURATION WITH EXCELLENT LIFT BY 00Z
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND REACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
IT STRENGTHENS BY MONDAY MORNING. ALL THE WHILE...PUSHING A WARM
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PUTTING US IN THE
WARM SECTOR. THUS GIVEN ALL THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL USE NEAR 100
POPS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHEAR IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
PASSES...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOWER
LEVEL INVERSIONS IN PLACE. HOWEVER ALOFT...SOME INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN PRESENT AS STEEP LAPSE RATES LOOK PRESENT AMID A SATURATED
COLUMN. THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME THUNDER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING PASSES.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COUNTERACTING EACH OTHER...AND TREND
WARMER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WITHIN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP LOOK LIKELY ON MONDAY AS ONCE AGAIN DECENT
MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDING INITIALLY SHOW
LOWER LEVELS WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT AS THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN FALL ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING SHOWING
A SNOW SOUNDING. THUS WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES IN
THE MORNING AND TREND TOWARD SNOW CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE AND PASSED
TO THE EAST...THUS ONLY MINIMAL TO VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY...GIVEN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WE WILL LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MORNING...WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S IN THE AFTERNOON. A NON-DIURNAL TREND WILL BE
USED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHED SHORTLY BETWEEN 13-15Z NEAR FROPA.

A RIDGE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BURST OF COLD
AND DRY AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AGREE...SHOWING A DRY COLUMN ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS ENTIRELY BELOW
0C. WILL TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT DRY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
THROUGH. ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE SYSTEM WILL START TO
APPROACH INDIANA AND WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STILL SEEING BIG VARIABILITY IN
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. ENSEMBLE MOS HIGHS IN THE GFS ARE VARYING FROM
29 TO 48 FOR INDIANAPOLIS...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS STICKING CLOSER
TO THE WARMER END OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
STICKING WITH A COLDER TRACK. WITH THE ECM TENDING TO VERIFY A
LITTLE BETTER FURTHER OUT IN TIME WILL TREND THE INTIALIZATION A FEW
DEGREES COLDER TOWARD IT...AND THIS RESULTED IN CHANCES FOR SNOW
NORTH AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. PATTERN COULD FLATTEN A BIT AFTER THAT AND ACCEPTED DRY
INITIALIZATION FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 21/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 6 TO 10 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WILL SEE LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT CONDITIONS.

NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING WILL BEGIN LOWERING CEILINGS NEAR DAYBREAK
ALONG WITH SOME DRIZZLE...BUT SREF PROBABILITIES AND LAMP GUIDANCE
SUGGEST CONDITIONS REMAIN LOW END VFR THROUGH ABOUT LATE MORNING.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH ONSET OF STEADIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THEN PERHAPS TO IFR LATE
IN THE PERIOD TOWARD TOMORROW EVENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND A
LOW LEVEL JET WORKS INTO THE AREA.

WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SOUTHERLY...THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TOWARD
MORNING. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 07-14KT RANGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME GUSTINESS MAY OCCUR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS TOO SPOTTY TO INCLUDE. AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES IN LATE
IN THE PERIOD...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME A CONCERN AT MOST
SITES. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION DESPITE UNCERTAINTY ON DETAILS TO PUT
THE WORD OUT THERE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD

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000
FXUS63 KIND 230443
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1143 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SET FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WHICH MAY MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH CENTRAL FOR THANKSGIVING GIVING
CENTRAL INDIANA MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 929 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVER SURFACE PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. RADAR FINALLY SHOWING A WAVE OF
SHOWERS OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WESTERN CENTRAL
INDIANA...PUSHING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW. HAVE RAISED POPS TO NEAR
100 PERCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AS IT PASSES. ELSEWHERE...WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS AS AN ISOLATED
SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

GIVEN WARM AIR ADVECTION...PLENTIFUL CLOUDS AND THE FAILURE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL MUCH AT ALL, HAVE RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAV GUIDANCE TENDS TO AGREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AS THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
AGREE THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL DRIFT
EAST AND DEEPEN. AS IT DOES STRONG DYNAMICS WILL BE EJECTED OUT
OF THE TROUGH AND PUSHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. VERY GOOD LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL
REMAIN FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS THEN SHOW DEEP SATURATION WITH EXCELLENT LIFT BY 00Z
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND REACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
IT STRENGTHENS BY MONDAY MORNING. ALL THE WHILE...PUSHING A WARM
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PUTTING US IN THE
WARM SECTOR. THUS GIVEN ALL THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL USE NEAR 100
POPS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHEAR IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
PASSES...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOWER
LEVEL INVERSIONS IN PLACE. HOWEVER ALOFT...SOME INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN PRESENT AS STEEP LAPSE RATES LOOK PRESENT AMID A SATURATED
COLUMN. THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME THUNDER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING PASSES.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COUNTERACTING EACH OTHER...AND TREND
WARMER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WITHIN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP LOOK LIKELY ON MONDAY AS ONCE AGAIN DECENT
MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDING INITIALLY SHOW
LOWER LEVELS WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT AS THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN FALL ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING SHOWING
A SNOW SOUNDING. THUS WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES IN
THE MORNING AND TREND TOWARD SNOW CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE AND PASSED
TO THE EAST...THUS ONLY MINIMAL TO VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY...GIVEN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WE WILL LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MORNING...WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S IN THE AFTERNOON. A NON-DIURNAL TREND WILL BE
USED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHED SHORTLY BETWEEN 13-15Z NEAR FROPA.

A RIDGE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BURST OF COLD
AND DRY AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AGREE...SHOWING A DRY COLUMN ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS ENTIRELY BELOW
0C. WILL TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT DRY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
THROUGH. ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE SYSTEM WILL START TO
APPROACH INDIANA AND WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STILL SEEING BIG VARIABILITY IN
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. ENSEMBLE MOS HIGHS IN THE GFS ARE VARYING FROM
29 TO 48 FOR INDIANAPOLIS...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS STICKING CLOSER
TO THE WARMER END OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
STICKING WITH A COLDER TRACK. WITH THE ECM TENDING TO VERIFY A
LITTLE BETTER FURTHER OUT IN TIME WILL TREND THE INTIALIZATION A FEW
DEGREES COLDER TOWARD IT...AND THIS RESULTED IN CHANCES FOR SNOW
NORTH AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. PATTERN COULD FLATTEN A BIT AFTER THAT AND ACCEPTED DRY
INITIALIZATION FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 21/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 6 TO 10 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WILL SEE LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT CONDITIONS.

NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING WILL BEGIN LOWERING CEILINGS NEAR DAYBREAK
ALONG WITH SOME DRIZZLE...BUT SREF PROBABILITIES AND LAMP GUIDANCE
SUGGEST CONDITIONS REMAIN LOW END VFR THROUGH ABOUT LATE MORNING.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH ONSET OF STEADIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THEN PERHAPS TO IFR LATE
IN THE PERIOD TOWARD TOMORROW EVENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND A
LOW LEVEL JET WORKS INTO THE AREA.

WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SOUTHERLY...THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TOWARD
MORNING. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 07-14KT RANGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME GUSTINESS MAY OCCUR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS TOO SPOTTY TO INCLUDE. AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES IN LATE
IN THE PERIOD...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME A CONCERN AT MOST
SITES. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION DESPITE UNCERTAINTY ON DETAILS TO PUT
THE WORD OUT THERE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






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